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Fargo’s 2009 International Bowl Picks

Jack Jones — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:30:40 +0000

**8** International Bowl 74.6% ATS CRUSHER The Big East against the MAC should be no contest although there were instances of wins this season (Akron over Syracuse, Bowling Green over Pittsburgh) but those were certainly rare. Buffalo pulled off one of the bigger upsets in the MAC as it took out then undefeated Ball St. in the MAC Championship. As far as proximity, the Bulls have the edge here as they are just a couple hours away from Toronto making it a feasible trip for their fans. The Bulls closed the season strong with six wins in its last seven games but three of those came against some ugly competition and decided by six points or fewer. Connecticut had a disappointing season for Huskies standards especially after starting the season 5-0. They limped in with a 2-5 mark but two of those losses came at Rutgers and at South Florida by two and four points respectively. As a matter of fact, all five of those setbacks came against teams in bowl games, three of whom won (West Virginia and North Carolina played each other) while Pittsburgh lost by three points to Oregon St. Basically, the competition was tough but they still managed to stay competitive. Don’t expect the lead to not show up as head coach Randy Edsall is one of the best around and he will not allow his team to come into this game and sleepwalk through it especially after their bowl loss to Wake Forest last season. A quick glance at the numbers show that Buffalo was actually outgained this season by an average of 27.8 ypg and this was against a MAC schedule and an overall schedule that was ranked 82nd. The Bulls were outgained in nine of their 13 games including eight of their last 10. Connecticut played in the tougher conference, played a tough schedule (40th) and still managed to outgain the opposition by a solid 70.5 ypg. The Huskies outgained six of those final seven opponents and outgained foes in four of those losses. It should come as no surprise that the MAC has been overmatched when expected. Conference teams have lost 12 straight games as underdogs, going 2-10 ATS including a 0-2 mark this year (Northern Illinois and Western Michigan). Play on teams that are coming off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, a winning team that has not won more than 60 percent of its games playing another winning team. This situation is 42-18 (70 percent) over the last 10 seasons. We can add in the fact that Buffalo is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against the Big East, Connecticut is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss and 19-6 ATS when coming off a game of scoring fewer than 14 points. Connecticut controls the line of scrimmage and rolls on Saturday. 8* Connecticut Huskies

Don’t miss any more of the college bowl picks that Matt Fargo releases this season!

Fargo’s 2009 Sugar Bowl Picks

Jack Jones — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:15:56 +0000

Another winner from Matt Fargo last night as he took Utah over Alabama with his bowl picks. Let’s find out just why he liked the Utes to pull off the upset over the Tide:

We all saw what happened last season when a non-BCS team crashed the party as Hawaii was trounced in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. Gamblers have short-term memories and that is what they will remember but will likely forget two years ago when Boise St. went to Fiesta Bowl and defeated Oklahoma. It is possible for these small schools to compete and Utah will be up for the challenge here. The big thing here is that Utah isn’t just happy to be here but it wants to win. They’ve gotten this far and they aren’t here just to be the kind of team happy with a close loss or satisfied with making it to a big bowl game. They want that Sugar Bowl trophy, too. The Tide have been a very good story this season. They came in expecting to be good but not many people expected a season like this. Alabama does have a great offensive line and it has been able to knock a lot of teams around because of it but it will be missing a key ingredient on Friday. Left tackle Andre Smith, the Outland Trophy winner as the nation’s best interior lineman, was suspended after a school investigation discovered improper contact with a sports agent. We all know that the position is the most important for the quarterback as it protects the blind side but this loss could affect Alabama more emotional than physically. “Practice was not real great yesterday,” nose guard Terrence Cody said. “I think it was kind of different because he wasn’t out there. The tempo was different; we didn’t have much tempo yesterday.” Alabama has played the 58th ranked schedule which is horrible for an SEC team while Utah has played the 70th ranked schedule. Comparing the SEC and MWC with this shows little difference. Alabama is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. Utah is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog and it gets even better. The Utes have been underdogs of more than a touchdown only nine times since 1998 and they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in those games with four of those being outright wins and four others being losses by a field goal or less.

Fargo’s 2009 Gator Bowl Picks

Jack Jones — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 00:07:00 +0000

When it comes to beating the bowl game odds, you can’t go wrong if you sign up for the bowl picks offered by Matt Fargo. Lets’ take a look at why he was all over Nebraska to beat Clemson in the 2009 Gator Bowl and you can see what we mean:

I’m going to start this out similar to South Carolina. I think Clemson being in a New Years Day bowl is a joke. With the exception of maybe LSU, the Tigers had to have been the biggest dud this season. They were blown out against Alabama to start the year, although that loss isn’t looking as bad now, and at one point they were sitting with a 3-4 record and then later a 4-5 record. Tommy Bowden got shown the door and Clemson picked it up after that as it won its last three games but two of those were against non-bowl teams Duke and Virginia and the other against a below average South Carolina team. Nebraska meanwhile got off to a good start but suffered three straight losses. The Huskers responded by winning five of their last six games with the only setback coming at Oklahoma. The Nebraska offense is a powerful unit as it scored 35 or more points seven times while averaging 36.2 ppg, 18th in the nation. The Huskers averaged 8.6 ypa which was 8th in the nation while their 69.5 percent completion rate trailed only Texas, Missouri and Texas Tech. While three of Nebraska’s non-conference wins came against some cupcakes, two of Clemson’s came against teams that do not even compete at this level. Nebraska opened as the favorite and Clemson was quickly bet to that role which is fine as the more public money on the overrated Tigers the better. Nebraska pulls off the minor upset.

Fargo’s 2008 Capital One Bowl Game Lines

Jack Jones — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 23:25:18 +0000

Matt Fargo was on the right side of the bowl game lines yet again last night when he took Georgia over Michigan State. If you are on board with his bowl picks this year then you have seen him cash winning ticket after winning ticket. If not, then take a look at the reasons he was all over the Bulldogs:

I am a big fan of Michigan St. head coach Mark Dantonio and what he is doing to this program but his team is outmatched in this spot. I made reference in the Iowa/South Carolina matchup that the SEC had a down year and Georgia was part of that making the Big Ten the conference with the value. However, the two big opponents the Spartans faced, Ohio St. and Penn St., blew them out. They snuck by Iowa and Wisconsin and beat Northwestern by 17 points despite getting outgained by 162 total yards. The Bulldogs never recovered from their blowout loss against Florida as they snuck by both Auburn and Kentucky, although those games were on the road, and then lost to Georgia Tech in the season finale. The good news is that the time off from then until now can only help Georgia. The Bulldogs have a solid coach of their own in Mark Richt and he knows how to get the troops ready as they have won seven of their last eight non-BCS bowl games. Michigan St. struggled defensively against some of the tougher offenses and Georgia has the firepower to put up a lot of points with a first round draft pick at quarterback in Matthew Stafford and a great running back in Knowshon Moreno. Georgia is a solid 19-5 ATS in its last 24 non-conference road games while Michigan St. is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing more than 6.25 yppl in its last game. The Bulldogs bounce back and win this one going away.

Fargo’s 2009 Outback Bowl Game Odds

Jack Jones — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 23:07:39 +0000

The bowl picks offered by Matt Fargo continue to show clients a profit. On January 1st the bowl game odds that he liked right away was the 2009 Outback Bowl so let’s take a look at how he broke down the game and thought Iowa was the easy choice.

I think South Carolina being in a New Years Day bowl is a joke. The Gamecocks limped home to end the season, getting blown out at Florida and Clemson. The loss to the Gators is nothing to be embarrassed of or is it? Losing 56-6 to any team causes concern and I want to part of a team like that. On the flip side, Iowa cruised home with three straight victories including an upset against then undefeated Penn St. The Hawkeyes lost four games this season by a total of 12 points so it deserves to be here. One can simply look at the conferences and make a case for South Carolina since it was in the SEC and the Big Ten had a down year. But the SEC was no powerhouse this season. Take away Florida and Alabama, the latter who South Carolina didn’t even face and it was not impressive. Mississippi was a pleasant surprise but Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Auburn did not come close to expectations. The Gamecocks defeated UAB and Wofford by 23 combined points out of the conference. That stinks. The numbers alone backup the Hawkeyes as does this situation that takes part of those into consideration. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have outscored it opponents by 14 or more ppg going up going up against an opponent that is outscoring opponents by fewer than 5 ppg (or getting outscored), after scoring 42 points or more last game. This situation is 32-11 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being a solid +15.6 ppg. The Hawkeyes start the New Year with a romp.

Fargo’s 2009 Orange Bowl Game Lines

Jack Jones — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 21:15:59 +0000

Matt Fargo thinks you should take Virginia Tech over Cincinnati in the 2009 Orange Bowl and he is providing this full detailed report as to why:

You have to take off your hat to Cincinnati who won its first ever Big East title and won 11 games for the first time in school history. But let’s not forget that it is the Big East we are talking about and even for the weak conference, it was a down year as favorites South Florida, West Virginia and Rutgers all had very subpar years even though all three won their bowl games. The Bearcats non-conference schedule was relatively soft with the exception of Oklahoma and that resulted in a 26-point loss. Four of their Big East wins came by eight points or fewer and now they face a team from the strongest rated conference in the country. Virginia Tech stepped up when it needed to and took care of Boston College in the ACC Championship in a big revenge spot. The Hokies played the 13th ranked schedule in the country compared to the 62nd ranked schedule for Cincinnati and still came away with nine wins. Virginia Tech finished 4-2 against the top 30 while the Bearcats went just 1-1. Virginia Tech is 7th in the country in total defense and that is the unit that will take control of this game. Virginia Tech is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after winning as an underdog last time out while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games and this is the first ever BSC bowl for the Bearcats while the Hokies have been involved in three in the past five years. The wrong team is favored here.

Fargo’s 2008 Texas Bowl Game Odds

Jack Jones — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:45:38 +0000

It was another night of winners for the lucky clients of Matt Fargo who are playing his bowl picks this season. He circled yet another one of the bowl game odds that was ripe for the taking when he selected Rice in the 2008 Texas Bowl. Read why he backed Rice in the details below:

Rice is a team that has flown under the radar this season and because of that we catch a nice number. The Owls are virtually playing a home game here as Reliant Stadium is their home away from home as it is just five minutes from the Rice campus. Obvious advantages include maintaining a consistent practice schedule, being able to sleep in their own beds and eat meals they are used to, and one unique advantage is that they won’t be impacted by travel schedules. Ad in a six-game winning streak and Rice is rolling.

Western Michigan also had a very solid season, going 9-3 including a marquee win against Illinois on a neutral field. Its three losses came against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball St., all bowl teams and all on the road. I believe the record is not quite as good as it looks however as the Broncos were outgained in each of their last three games and four of their last five. The offense has the ability to be explosive but the defense allowed too many big plays and if ever there is a big play offense, it is Rice.

As with Western Michigan, all of the Owls losses came on the road and those were against a much tougher Vanderbilt, Texas and Tulsa, all bowl teams as well and better ones at that than what the Broncos lost to. The winning formula all year has been to slow down the opposing team just enough to allow the offense to rack up points. The offense has done just that in compiling a 41.6 ppg scoring average. Conversely, Western Michigan averages 29.8 ppg.

Rice quarterback Chase Clement was 6th in the nation in pass efficiency and averaged 318 passing ypg. He threw 41 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions during the regular season. His main targets are Jarrett Dillard who had a nation-best 19 touchdown catches and James Casey who had a C-USA record 104 pass receptions. Western Michigan is 96th in the nation in pass defense, yielding 249 ypg. On the other side, the Rice defense played well down the stretch and pressured the quarterback much better.

If this game does turn into a shootout which it looks like it will, Rice has the edge as it is 14-4 ATS when both teams score 28 or more points over the last three seasons. The Owls are 8-2 ATS with a total of 63 or greater. Western Michigan meanwhile does not recover well from big losses as it is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 games after a loss of 20 or more points. The Owls are poised for a 10-win season for just the second time in history and a bowl victory for the first since 1954. They get it done in front of the home crowd. 8* Rice Owls

Fargo’s 2008 Hawaii Bowl Game Picks

Jack Jones — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 20:41:53 +0000

If you are looking for detailed reports to go along with excellent bowl picks, then look no further than Matt Fargo. He spends hours going over the bowl game lines to make sure that he finds the value in the numbers so his clients can make a profit.

While neither one of these teams really deserve to be in a bowl game, here they are playing a game on Christmas Eve that few will probably watch. It is pretty well documented about the trouble Notre Dame has had winning a bowl game as it has lost nine straight trips to the postseason and has not won a bowl game since 1994. The Irish are no longer the public betting team they used to be and as a matter of fact, they are just the opposite now. That bowl losing streak is factored into this line and it shouldn’t be.

Notre Dame started strong and faltered at the end of the season, culminating in a crushing loss at USC. The Irish dropped four of their last five games but managed to outgain three of their opponents in those defeats. As a matter of fact, before the USC game, Notre Dame has outgained its last eight opponents and for the season, it finished +17.3 ypg in yardage margin with the -358 yards to USC bringing that average down even more. It could have been a better year as the Irish dropped four games by five points or less.

Hawaii ended the season with three wins in its final four games to move its record to 7-6 and lock up a spot in the Hawaii Bowl so this obviously a home game for the Warriors. After a 1-3 start to the season, the Warriors won six of their final nine games to become bowl eligible which is a great accomplishment considering Hawaii was not supposed to do much this season after losing a tom of its offense as well as its head coach. I am still not sold on the quality of some of those wins however.

Prior to playing Cincinnati, the Warriors had to win their final three games and they did just that but it was not much of a challenge. They had to defeat New Mexico St., Idaho and Washington St. to get it done and considering those three teams finished the season a combined 7-30 and of those seven wins, only six of those were against FBS teams with a win over Weber St. being the other victory. Overall, Hawaii played the 72nd ranked schedule in the country while Notre Dame played the 36th ranked slate. 5* Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Fargo’s 2008 Poinsettia Bowl Picks

Jack Jones — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 19:19:39 +0000

Nobody puts as much analysis into his bowl picks than Matt Fargo does and that is one of the reasons that so many clients sign up for his selections. If you are in need of some help breaking down the bowl game odds, then Fargo can assist you in doing so. Let’s take a look at the total he posted on the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, an easy winner on the under.

I have this total projected in the high 30’s and with these two defenses it is very surprising where this number opened and where it currently sits. Two of the best defenses in the country square off here and those units should dictate how this game is played out. The offenses look strong but neither side faced a defense like it will see tonight. This total had to put where it is as taking points scored on both sides from both teams is where this was derived from and that is not the correct way to do it in this case.

TCU gave opponents fits this season as it allowed 214.1 ypg against offenses averaging 355 ypg and it held nine opponents to season lows in offensive yardage which was the most in the nation. The Horned Frogs allowed only 10.9 ppg which is second in the nation, trailing only USC. One good indicator is their game at Oklahoma. The Sooners scored 35 points on 436 yards, both of which were tied for season lows. TCU gave up no more that 14 points in any other game.

Boise St. meanwhile has a defense that is nearly as strong in points allowed as it allows only 12.3 ppg which is third in the nation. The Broncos allowed more yards with 294.4 ypg but it was obviously a bend don’t break defense as their 24.04 yppt average was second best in the nation behind the Trojans. The defense has just two poor games, allowing 32 points to Oregon and 34 points to Nevada but those teams are ranked 8th and 5th in the country in total offense. TCU is 29th in that category.

Both teams fall into a very solid situation and one that has been extremely profitable throughout the years. Play the ‘under’ in a non-conference bowl games between two teams from non-major conferences. This situation is 26-8 to the ‘under’ (76.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average score falling close to 10 points below the posted number. This scenario have gone over both times so far this bowl season but one of those came in overtime while the other came with two defense ranked 97th and 96th. 7* Under TCU Horned Frogs/Boise St. Broncos