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PLAY ON: Cubs +113

I'm going to gladly take my chances with the Cubs as a +113 home dog in Thursday's series finale against the Astros. Chicago has won the first two games in this series and simply should not be a dog here. Only reason they are is the big price tag that comes with Astros' starter Justin Verlander. I don't think he's the better of the two starters in this one. Chicago's Javier Assad comes into this game with a 2.11 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 4 starts. He's been even better than that with a 0.84 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 2 home starts. You also have to factor in how poorly this Astros offense has been performing of late. Houston hasn't scored more than 5 runs in 8 straight games, going for 3 or fewer in 5 of those 8. Give me the Cubs +113! 

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MIKE'S NUGGETS/LAKERS NBA FREE PICK

The Los Angeles Lakers put some pressure on the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 of the series, but they still came up short in the 101-99 loss. The Nuggets overcame a 20-point, second-half deficit, and I think it'll be extremely difficult for the Lakers to regroup following that loss.  

The Nuggets failed to cover the spread in the win, but they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss, while the Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Additionally, the Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.

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Ricky's 1* play on CIN.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Cincinnati are 5-3-3 in their last 11 home matches.

- Cincinnati are 3-2-1 in their last 6 matches.

- Colorado has conceded 16 goals in their last 10 matches.

Verdict: The Value is on the home favorite.

This is a free play on TOR.

The Jays have lost back to back 1-run games at Kansas City, but they have a favorable matchup in Thursday's series finale.

A matchup of Jose Berrios versus Cole Ragans would have looked like a sure pitcher's a week ago, but since then Ragans was lit up for seven runs on nine hits in 1 2/3 innings in home loss to Baltimore.

Berrios has been flawless, going 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA. He's allowed just one run in his last four starts.

It might be a better idea to keep the bullpens out of it and look at the 1st 5 innings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Thursday NBA Free play. My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The Magic are down 2-0 in this series but should return home confident knowing they're 29-11 SU (27-13 ATS) on this floor this season. The Cavaliers check in just 16-25 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 6-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 0-3 ATS when allowing 90 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Orlando is 28-19 ATS in its last 47 contests as a home favorite including a 19-7 ATS record this season. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS when coming off consecutive games in which they were held to 100 points or less this season. Take Orlando.

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Cleveland at Orlando 7:00 ET

Magic (-) over Cavaliers- Orlando, which posted a 29-12 record at home this season, is hosting its first playoff game since April 21, 2019. It expects to be a boisterous crowd and to that to do that, Orlando likely would benefit from a faster start. The Magic have fallen behind by the end of the first quarter in 13 of their last 15 games dating to the regular season. The Magic's best perimeter defender, Jalen Suggs, expects to play in Game 3 despite nursing a left knee injury sustained in Monday's game and Banchero will need to be better with the ball. He has committed 15 turnovers in the two games. Still, take ORLANDO! 

1* Free Play on Cavs/Magic under