Burns 2008 Poinsettia Bowl Picks

Ben Burns does a great job each post-season of cashing in on the bowl game odds.  This is a handicapper who has been putting out bowl picks for years and has learned from his mistakes, vowing not to repeat any of them.  Let’s take a look at how he used this knowledge to cash in on the total of the TCU/Boise State game.

I’m playing on Boise State and TCU to finish UNDER the total. Yes, both offenses are more than capable. However, both defenses are also excellent. The Horned Frogs finished second in the entire nation in both total yards allowed (215.1) and points (10.9). Only USC was better. A closer look shows that the Horned Frogs held 11 of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less and that Oklahoma, the highest scoring team in the country, was the only team which topped that mark.

While not quite in TCU’s class, Boise State is also much better defensively than most people believe. The Broncos held 10 of their 12 opponents to 16 points or less. Eight of those teams finished with 10 or less and six of them finished with seven or less. Overall, the Broncos allowed an average of only 294.5 total yards and a mere 12.2 points.

The Horned Frogs are currently laying three points at most shops. That’s worth noting as we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that TCU played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. During the same stretch, Boise State saw the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for this evening’s game to also prove much lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying below the generous number. *Main Event