Nobody puts as much analysis into his bowl picks than Matt Fargo does and that is one of the reasons that so many clients sign up for his selections. If you are in need of some help breaking down the bowl game odds, then Fargo can assist you in doing so. Let’s take a look at the total he posted on the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, an easy winner on the under.
I have this total projected in the high 30’s and with these two defenses it is very surprising where this number opened and where it currently sits. Two of the best defenses in the country square off here and those units should dictate how this game is played out. The offenses look strong but neither side faced a defense like it will see tonight. This total had to put where it is as taking points scored on both sides from both teams is where this was derived from and that is not the correct way to do it in this case.
TCU gave opponents fits this season as it allowed 214.1 ypg against offenses averaging 355 ypg and it held nine opponents to season lows in offensive yardage which was the most in the nation. The Horned Frogs allowed only 10.9 ppg which is second in the nation, trailing only USC. One good indicator is their game at Oklahoma. The Sooners scored 35 points on 436 yards, both of which were tied for season lows. TCU gave up no more that 14 points in any other game.
Boise St. meanwhile has a defense that is nearly as strong in points allowed as it allows only 12.3 ppg which is third in the nation. The Broncos allowed more yards with 294.4 ypg but it was obviously a bend don’t break defense as their 24.04 yppt average was second best in the nation behind the Trojans. The defense has just two poor games, allowing 32 points to Oregon and 34 points to Nevada but those teams are ranked 8th and 5th in the country in total offense. TCU is 29th in that category.
Both teams fall into a very solid situation and one that has been extremely profitable throughout the years. Play the ‘under’ in a non-conference bowl games between two teams from non-major conferences. This situation is 26-8 to the ‘under’ (76.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average score falling close to 10 points below the posted number. This scenario have gone over both times so far this bowl season but one of those came in overtime while the other came with two defense ranked 97th and 96th. 7* Under TCU Horned Frogs/Boise St. Broncos