Steve Janus is looking to continue his dominance of the books throughout the college football season, and that means finishing the year off strong with his bowl picks. So far this year nobody has done a better job of breaking down the bowl game odds than this expert handicapper and he showed just why he is the best of the best last night in the 2008 Armed Forces Bowl, taking Houston over Air Force and here is why:
You can’t ignore Air Force’s running game, which racked up nearly 270 yards per game this year, but teams that rely almost exclusively on the run have not fared well in bowl games this season (see Navy & Nevada). The problem I have with the Falcons is that they ranked last in the regular season in all of college football in passing yards per game. That strategy got them 7 wins, but I feel that they will struggle to keep up with Houston, who should put up a lot of points on the Falcon’s defense. Houston gained 575.1 yards of total offense per game on the year, the best in the nation. Granted, they weren’t playing against any great defenses, but the numbers are impressive no matter who the competition was. Houston’s defense was shredded by teams like Rice and Oklahoma State, but both of those teams have steady passing games. I think the Cougars can crowd the line of scrimmage and stop the Falcons enough to let the Houston offense take over.