3* BEST BET on Alabama +1 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Purdue -13½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on UC-Santa Barbara +2 -111

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Boston College +4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Kentucky -6½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Kansas State -9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on UMKC +18½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Troy State +6 -104

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Northern Arizona +6 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Pittsburgh +4 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Southern Miss +6½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Northern Iowa +9 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Western Illinois +14½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Belmont -14 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Northern Kentucky +13 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Purdue +1½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Charlotte -20 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Georgetown +10½ -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Michigan -11½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Villanova +1½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Green Bay +6½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on SMU +2½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Bradley +1½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Marquette +4½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Florida/Boston College under 143½ -107

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Montana -1 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on San Francisco +3½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Evansville -3 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on SE Missouri State +5½ -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on South Dakota +13 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Cleveland State +9½ -103

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Illinois-Chicago +2 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Green Bay +25 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Oakland +22½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Nevada -4 -103

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Auburn +1½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Davidson +8½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Houston +3 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Georgia -19 -109

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on South Carolina -1 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on CS-Northridge/Air Force under 149 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Texas-San Antonio -3 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cal-Irvine +13½ -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Bryant +23 -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Sam Houston State +31 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Auburn -7½ -103

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Austin Peay -4½ -112

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Gonzaga/Kansas over 150 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Xavier -9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Indiana -21 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rhode Island +8 -108

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on West Virginia -9 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* MAJOR on Illinois-Chicago +2 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Western Carolina/NC-Wilmington over 149 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on Xavier -4½ -110

Easy play here on the Musketeers as a small favorite against DePaul in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. Xavier won both meetings between the two teams in the regular season. They won the first meeting on the road by 8 and then by 9 at home. Both times the Musketeers defense made it tough on the Blue Demons to score. 

I see no reason to expect a different outcome, especially given how bad DePaul has been in the Big East Tournament under head coach Dave Leitao. Blue Demons have made 4 appearances under Leitao and have lost all 4, going just 1-3 ATS in those games. DePaul is also just 4-15 ATS last 19 as a neutral court dog of 6 or less. 

Another key factor here is motivation. Xavier absolutely has to have this game and likely at least one more to have a legit shot at an at-large bid (currently projected as one of the first four teams out). Musketeers could also catch a big break, as DePaul's top player Paul Reed has missed the last 3 and is listed as questionable. Take Xavier! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO-BRAINER Top Play on St. Peter's -2 -115

Easy play here on the Peacocks as a slim 2-point favorite against the Gaels in Wednesday's quarterfinal matchup out of the MAAC Tournament. St. Peter's has a big edge in rest in this one. Peacocks haven't played since beating Iona in the regular-season finale last Friday. The Gaels on the other hand had to open up MAAC Tournament play yesterday against Canisius. 

While Iona won and covered against Canisius as a 4.5-point favorite, the Gaels are just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a neutral site underdog. As for St. Peter's, they are headed into postseason play on a roll. Peacocks went 11-2 over their last 13 games. 

St. Peter's is 16-5 ATS last 21 off a SU win and have covered 6 straight games on a neutral floor. Peacocks were tops in the MAAC in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. They allowed just 62.4 ppg on 39.9% shooting in conference play. Iona has not fared well agaisnt strong defensive teams, going just 2-8 ATS this season vs teams who held opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take St. Peter's! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Washington +5½ -105

I like the value here with the Huskies as a decently priced dog in their first round matchup against Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament. Washington ended up finishing last in the Pac-12, but were far from the worst team in the conference. Huskies are sitting 53rd in KenPom's rankings, which is better than 7 other teams in the Pac-12. 

You also have to like how Washington closed out the regular-season, winning 3 of their last 4 games, including a 69-63 win on the road at Arizona in the finale. Huskies really should have swept the Wildcats, as they gave away a game at home to Arizona in a 72-75 loss. 

Covering on a neutral site has been a big problem for Arizona. Wildcats are 0-7 ATS last 7 neutral site games and 0-6 ATS last 6 as a favorite. Arizona is also just 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road off a loss. Underdog has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings in the series. Take Washington! 

5* NCAAB - Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on NC State -4½ -110

Easy play here on the Wolfpack as a small favorite in Wednesday's action out of the ACC Tournament. NC State got a first round bye and will have a big rest advantage here over Pitt, who had to play yesterday against Wake Forest. 

Panthers were able to knock off the Demon Deacons 81-72 in a high-scoring game and while they needed a late 2nd half run to pull away. Pitt just doesn't have the depth to play well on no rest. Panthers basically only play 7 guys and 4 of those logged 35+ minutes on Tuesday. Makings matters even worse is the fact that NC State likes to run, as they finished 3rd in the ACC in tempo. 

Pitt ranked just 10th in the ACC in defensive efficiency and were 14th in effective field goal defense. The only thing that really saved them is turnovers, but that's negated here by a NC State team that had the 5th best turnover rate in the conference. I not only think the Wolfpack cover the small spread, I like them to win here in a blowout. Take NC State! 

3* NCAAB - Early Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1 -108

No reason to overthink this one. Pitt finished the regular-season on a 7-game losing streak and 5 of the 7 defeats came by double-digits. Hard to believe this team was once sitting at 4-4 in ACC play (finished 6-14). 

I get Wake Forest had the same record in ACC play, but unlike Pitt they played awful at the beginning of the year and got better as the season went on. Demon Deacons started out just 2-8 in league play before a 4-6 finish that included a win over Duke. Not to mention Wake Forest went into Pitt and beat the Panthers in the only meeting between the two. 

No a big concern for revenge, as Pitt is just 10-23 ATS last 33 when revenging a loss. Panthers are also 3-14 ATS last 17 when they come in having lost 2 or more games in a row. Demon Deacons are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 games on a neutral floor. Take Wake Forest! 

5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne +2 -103

Easy play here on the Mastodons at basically a pick'em against North Dakota in the semifinals of the Summit Conference Tournament. IUPU Ft. Wayne followed up their strong showing on the road in the regular-season finale (lost by 6 at Oral Roberts as a 10.5-point dog) with a 77-74 win over South Dakota State on Saturday as a 7-point dog. 

The Mastodons are now a strong 4-1 ATS last her last 5 games as a dog. They are also 28-13 ATS last 41 off an outright win as a dog. The Fighting Hawks also won as a dog in their first game of the Summit Tournament, but they are just 1-5 STS last 6 off a SU win. 

Big factor here that favors IUPU Ft Wayne is that North Dakota does not force a lot of turnovers. Fighting Hawks rank just 337th in the country in defensive turnover rate. That's huge for a Mastodons offense that doesn't have a traditional true point guard. Take Ft Wayne! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Toledo -8½ -110

The Rockets are definitely worth a look to cover the spread at home against Western Michigan. Toledo finished with a mere 8-10 record in MAC play, but that's a bit misleading in terms of how the Rockets are playing. Toledo has won 5 of their last 7 games, which includes a 9-point road win over Western Michigan. 

While the Rockets are surging to the finish line, Western Michigan went just 2-6 over their final 8 games. Broncos ended the year with an ugly 68-85 loss to rival Central Michigan, who came into that game on a 9-game losing streak. 

Rockets went 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games and the favorite has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Broncos are 0-4 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Take Toledo! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Wichita State -6½ -110

Most will be looking to take the points here with Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes can clinch the outright AAC regular-season title with a win and already beat Wichita State at home earlier this season. Much like the books, I'm not a believer in Tulsa.

I look for the Shockers to win big here at home, where they are 12-2 on the season. Wichita State is also 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against the Golden Hurricane. I just don't see Tulsa being able to score enough to keep it close. Golden Hurricane are only averaging 63.5 ppg on 41% shooting from the field and 25% from deep on the road this season. Take Wichita State! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF -7½ -110

Easy play here on UCF at home against the Pirates, as the Knights should have no problem winning by double-digits in this one. East Carolina is a mere 3-11 over tehir last 14 games and just got annihilated on their home floor 84-63 by UConn. 

UCF won the first meeting between these two by just 4 at ECU, but that game felt a lot more lopsided. Knights shot 48% to the Pirates 41% and were even on the boards, free throws and turnovers. Seeing how ECU is just 2-11 on the road and giving up 75 ppg away from home, this one figures to get ugly in a hurry. 

Pirates are 2-10 ATS over the last 3 seasons in toad games against a marginal winning team that has won between 51% to 60% of their games and are losing in this spot by an 15.5 ppg. Take UCF! 

4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS BLOWOUT  on Oklahoma +2 -115

I like the Sooners to go into Fort Worth and cover as a small dog against the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two by a score of 83-63. It was complete domination, as they shot 54% from the field, while holding TCU to 38%. 

One of the big reasons that I don't see the script being flipped with a change in venue is the Sooners ability to take care of the basketball. The Horned Frogs defense really relies on their ability to force turnovers, as they struggle to get stops when they don't take the ball away. TCU is just 5-15 ATS this season vs teams who average 14 or fewer turnovers/game (Sonners average just 11). 

Oklahoma has also dominated this series more than just that first meeting this season. Sooners have won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the two teams. They have won 6 of their last 8 trips to TCU. Take Oklahoma! 

5* NCAAB - Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 -115

I absolutely love the Trojans laying a slim 3-points at home against rival UCLA. The Bruins have caught fire in the second half of the season and come into this game having won 7 straight, but I think it has them getting way to much respect in this one. 

USC enters off back-to-back impressive home wins over Arizona (57-48) and Arizona State (71-61). That's now 4 straight home wins for the Trojans, who are 13-2 on their home floor this season. The defense has been outstanding during their last 4 at home, as they held all 4 teams to 61 or fewer. 

Let's also not forget that USC went on the road and beat UCLA by 11 earlier this season. I get the Bruins are playing better now, but they could do next to nothing offensively in that game, shooting just 38% from the field and 3-13 from deep. 

UCLA is just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road after 2 or more wins in a row. The home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. Take USC! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money Total HEAVY HITTER on UTEP/Rice over 139½ -109

Rice and UTEP should have no problem eclipsing the total. This will actually be the third meeting between these two this season. Both of the first two games went under, but both teams shot poorly in both games and still each had at least 130 points. 

OVER has been a strong play when the Owls are laying points at home, cashing in 4 straight. OER is also a staggering 8-0 in Rice's last 8 games when playing with double-revenge and the average combined score in these games is 157.1. OVER is also 8-1 in the Owls last 9 off 2 or more wins in a row and 32-15 in UTEP's last 47 after allowing 65 or less in 3 straight games. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Georgia/LSU under 159½ -115

The UNDER is definitely worth a look here in Saturday's SEC matchup that has LSU hosting Georgia. Really big game for the Tigers, who need to win to lock up a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. That should lead to a big effort defensively from LSU sho should also be motivated to play well after giving up 99 at Arkansas last time out. 

Georgia comes in off 14-point home loss at Florida, where they managed just 54 points and that game is worth noting. UNDER is 16-7 in the Bulldogs last 23 off a double-digit loss at home and 8-1 in their last 9 after playing a game as a home dog. 

UNDER is also 6-2-1 in the Tigers last 9 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 13-3 in LSU's last 16 home games after playing in a game with a combined score of 175 or more. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Rutgers/Purdue under 127½ -110

Easy play on the UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Purdue and Rutgers. These two combined for 133 in the first meeting at Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights won 70-63. I think that result has created value with the number this time around. Total for that first meeting was just 120.5. 

Purdue is only giving up 59.8 ppg on 39% shooting at home this season and Rutgers' offense hasn't exactly traveled well. Big reason why the Scarlet Knights are a mere 1-10 on the road. Boilermakers also like to slow the game down. They are dead last in the Big Ten in tempo and 334th overall in that department. 

Both teams rank in the Top 4 of the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and are both in the bottom half of the conference in offensive efficiency. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on George Mason/Fordham under 120½ -110

This has the makings of a very ugly offensive game, which tends to be the case anytime Fordham is involved. The Rams play solid defense, as they are giving up just 63.5 ppg in conference games and are 5th in the A-10 in defensive efficiency. The problem is they can't score. Fordham averages just 55.2 ppg in league play (dead last in the A-10 in offensive efficiency). 

George Mason figures to have a hard time scoring in this one. Patriots aren't as bad as the Rams, but are one of the worst offenses in the A-10. Big problem here is Fordham does a great job of forcing teams to take 3-pointers and the outside shot is not a strength of George Mason. They only shoot 30% from deep and average a mere 6 made 3-pointers/game. 

UNDER is 10-3 in Fordham's last 13 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 23-9 in their last 32 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Baylor +1½ -109

Easy play here on the Bears getting points at West Virginia. I get the Mountaineers were able to snap a 4-game skid with a win at ISU on Tuesday, but no way should they be favored over the likes of Baylor, especially when you take into account what happened in the first meeting and how these two matchup. 

The Bears absolutely dominated West Virginia, defeating the Mountaineers by a final of 70-59. The final score does not do justice to how lopsided that game was. Baylor was up 53-25 in the 2nd half. They shot 52% from the field, while limited the WVU to 35%. 

You also have to think the Bears are going to be motivated to win here. With a win and a Kansas loss on the road at Texas Tech, Baylor would earn a share of the Big 12 regular season title. Bears are 6-0 ATS this season on the road vs quality teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 12-3 ATS last 15 as a road dog. Take Baylor! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird Total ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin/Indiana under 130 -110

The UNDER is worth a look in Saturday's early Big 10 action that has Wisconsin visiting Indiana. These two combined for 148 when they played way back in early December. That was simply a result of the Badgers going off, as they shot 54% from the field and 40% from deep. 

I'm confident they will regress in the rematch. Wisconsin is only averaging 67.4 ppg on 43% shooting for the season, so that was clearly an outlier. They are even worse on the road, where they are only scoring 60.9 ppg on 40% shooting (only 30% from deep). Indiana's defense may rank bottom half in the Big Ten, but they are giving up just 66.9 ppg on 42% shooting at home, where they are 15-3 compared to 4-8 on the road. 

No reason to expect a ton offensively from the Hoosiers. While the Badgers' offense hasn't traveled well, their defense has. Wisconsin also plays at one of the slowest paces in the conference.

UNDER is 10-4 in their 14 road games this season. UNDER is also 14-5 in Badgers last 19 as a dog and 13-3 in Indiana's last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pepperdine -1 -110

Hard not to like Pepperdine at basically a pick'em against Santa Clara in the 2nd round of the WCC Tournament. Big rest advantage for the Waves, who got a first round bye, while the Broncos had to play Portland yesterday. Note that Portland (3 wins) is the only team Santa Clara has beat since Jan. 25. 

Playing on no rest this time a year is tough on a college team and I just don't feel that it's taken into the line enough. Pepperdine won both meetings between these two in the regular-season. They won in OT at Santa Clara and then won by 14 at home. Both times the Waves reach 90 points. 

Pepperdine is 7-1 ATS on the season in road games against solid teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Waves are also 10-2 ATS last 12 after 2 or more losses (lost last two). Take Pepperdine! 

5* NCAAB - MAC TOTAL PLAY OF THE YEAR  on Ball State/Northern Illinois under 126½ -110

I absolutely love the UNDER in Friday's MAC West showdown that has Ball State visiting Northern Illinois. These two are 1-2 in their respective division and both come in playing well. Ball State has won 3 of their last 4, while the Huskies have gone 9-3 in their last 12. 

Both teams were outstanding defensively last time out. The Cardinals held Central Michigan to just 68 points on 38% shooting, while NIU limited one of the best offenses in the MAC in Toledo to just 50 points on 30% shooting. 

These two teams played once already back on Feb. 11 and that game saw a combined score of just 122. I think they will be lucky to get to 120 in the rematch. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Ball State's last 10 road games and 9-2 in their last 11 as a road dog of 6 points or less. UNDER is also 11-3 in Northern Illinois last 14 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less and 7-1 in their last 8 at home off a win. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Weber State -4 -110

I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Vandals. The books have really struggled to price Idaho here of late. The Vandals are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. It's gotten worse down the stretch, as they have lost and failed to cover each of their last 5 games, losing all 5 by double-digits. 

Not only does the current form favor Weber State, but this is a great matchup for the Wildcats. Idaho struggles to score inside and Weber State defends the 2-point shot well. If the outside shot isn't falling the Vandals are in big trouble, because the Wildcats are going to score. Weber State shoots 51% on 2-point shots, third best in the Big Sky, and that's an area the Vandals struggle to defend. 

Weber State has failed to cover their last two games, but that's almost more of a positive than a negative. Wildcats are 23-9-2 ATS last 34 off a failed cover and 8-1 ATS last 9 after 2 straight games where they didn't cover. Take Weber State! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on UMKC +3½ -109

Easy play on the Kangaroos getting points against the Wolverines. I get Utah Valley has the home court edge, but they are just 2-5 in their last 7 games with those two wins coming at home against bottom feeders Cal St. Bakersfield and Grand Canyon. 

UMKC has won 3 straight and their strong play goes back even further than that, as they are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 games. You also have to like the fact the Kangaroos won the earlier meeting between the two and did so jumping out to a 30-19 lead at the half. UMKC's defense held the Wolverines to just 34.5% shooting and forced them into 18 turnovers. 

Kangaroos are 16-5 ATS last 21 games off a win and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as an underdog, including 3-0-1 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Utah Valley is 3-7 ATS last 10 off a loss and a dreadful 3-11 ATS last 14 as a favorite (2-8 ATS last 10 as a home favorite). Take UMKC! 

4* NCAAB - MVC Tournament ATS NO-BRAINER on Drake -2½ -110

The Bulldogs are worth a look here as a small favorite against the Redbirds. Drake had a tough finish to the regular-season, losing 3 straight, including a 53-57 loss at Illinois State that started the skid and a ugly 43-70 loss at home to UNI to end it. 

I just trust the Bulldogs a lot more in this spot. Drake was the much better team in MVC play at 8-9, as Illinoi State went just 5-13 with two of their 5 wins coming against Evansville, who finished 0-18 in league play. 

Drake is 15-5-1 ATS last 21 neutral site games and 8-2-1 ATS last 11 neutral site games when listed as a favorite. They are also 4-0 ATS last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss by more than 20 points.

Adding to this is a solid system in favor of the Bulldogs. Teams playing with revenge from a loss where they scored 60 or fewer and off a conference loss by 10 or more are 129-75 (63%) ATS if playing on a neutral site. Take Drake! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dayton -3½ -109

The Flyers are worth a look here as a small road favorite against Rhode Island. Dayton has proven to be in a class of their own in the A-10. They are 16-0 in league play (no other team has fewer than 4 losses) and have made it clear they want to go undefeated in league play. A big reason for that is they feel if they run the table and win the A-10 Tournament, they got a legit shot at a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. 

That's more than enough motivation for me to lay the short number with the Flyers. Especially with how poorly Rhode Island has been playing down the stretch. The Rams were at one points 10-1 in league play, but have lost 3 of their last 5, including a 14-point loss at Dayton and most recently a shocking 10-point loss at home to St Louis (never led). Their two wins were both against bottom feeders in St. Joe's and Fordham (only won by 1-point). 

Rams are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home against a team with a winning road record, while the Flyers are 10-3 ATS this season when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take Dayton! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +2½ -115

The simple fact that Florida State is basically a pick'em in this spot against an unranked Notre Dame team says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Seminoles. Anytime something looks too good to be true, especially this late in the year, it typically is, which is why I like the Irish to win and cover. 

We did just see FSU lose at Clemson as a mere 3.5-point favorite on Saturday and you have to wonder if the pressure of winning the school's first ever ACC title in hoops is a bit too much for them. 

As for the Irish, their NCAA Tournament hopes took a massive hit with a loss at Wake Forest, but a win here could get them back into the conversation. Notre Dame is still trending in the right direction with 7 wins in their last 10 games. 

Their ability to take care of the ball (No. 2 in turnover rate) is huge against Florida State, who relies a lot on forcing their opponents into mistakes. We also saw the Irish go on the road and lose by just one-points (84-85) at FSU earlier this season. 

Irish are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home, 3-1-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and the underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Notre Dame! 

5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -2 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Billikens as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Patriots. St. Louis has saved their best basketball of the season for the stretch run and this is simply too good a price to pass up. 

Billikens have won 3 straight and are off a dominating 72-62 win at Rhode Island as a 6-point dog. St. Louis never trailed and hit 53% from the field. Marking their 5th straight game where they have shot 50% or better from the field. Hard to see the Billikens slowing down in this one. George Mason is allowing A-10 opposing teams to shoot 47% from the field and just let Duquesne connect on 56% in their last game. 

Also the one thing that the Patriots offense does well is offensive rebound, but that will be negated here, as St Louis is No. 2 in the conference in defensive rebounding. 

Billikens have covered 10 of their last 13 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. George Mason is 6-20 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 2-7 ATS last 9 as a home dog. Take St. Louis! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Massachusetts +2½ -110

The Minutemen are worth a look here as a slim road dog against the Explorers. While UMass is coming in off an ugly 24-point loss at Richmond, they had won 3 straight prior to laying an egg against the Spiders. 

One of the big reasons things went south against Richmond is the Spiders are a team that takes great care of the ball (No. 1 in A-10 in turnover pct.) and UMass really needs their pressure to force mistakes for them to have success.

Good news for the Minutemen is the Explores are a team that struggle to take care of the ball. La Salle ranks dead last in the A-10 in turnover rate, coughing it up 21.6% of the time. 

These two played back in January and UMass won that matchup 77-69. Their offense had no problem exploiting the Explorers defense, shooting 49% from the field. La Salle on the other hand shot just 40%. 

Another huge factor here is La Salle just had a starter, Ed Croswell leave the team. Croswell averaged 10.0 ppg (leading scorer averages 10.4 and only 3 guys in double-figures). They could also be without guard Scott Spencer. Take UMass! 

3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Xavier +5 -110

I like the Musketeers getting a decent number here on the road against the Friars. These two teams met up about a month ago with Xavier winning a defensive battle 64-58. Some might think Providence is primed for revenge with the Friars having won 4 straight, but the Musketeers have won 4 of their last 5 on the road with the only loss by a mere 5-points at Butler. 

This is also a brutal spot for Providence. I know the Friars are fighting for their postseason lives right now, but it's going to be near impossible for them to not suffer some kind of letdown after their 58-54 upset win at Villanova on Saturday. 

Friars are also a team that thrives a lot more in the role of the underdog. Providence is just 18-31 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a favorite, including a mere 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a favorite. Road team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series with the underdog cashing in 5 of the last 6. Take Xavier! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Ohio +8½ -109

I absolutely love the value here with the Bobcats as a near double-digit dog at Akron. The Zips come in tied with Bowling Green for the top record in MAC play at 12-4. Akron has already locked up a first round by in the MAC tournament. There's really no incentive here for the Zips to go all out in this matchup. 

As for Ohio, they are still fighting for seeding and need to stay in the Top 9 of the conference to make sure they get their first game at home in the MAC Tournament. Bobcats are also a team that is surging down the stretch. Ohio is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (4 straight covers) in their last 7 games. They are 12-4 ATS in conference games this season. 

Bobcats only lost by 2 (86-88) at home to the Zips earlier this season, so they know they can compete with Akron. An outright win here is not out of the question. Zips just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite. Take Ohio! 

5* NCAAB - Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas-Little Rock +3½ -110

I love the value here with Little Rock getting points on the road against the Panthers. The perception here is that the Trojans won't show up for this game because they just wrapped up the Sun Belt regular-season title and will be looking ahead to the conference tournament. 

While it's certainly not a do-or-die scenario for Little Rock, I don't think they are going to just not show up. Last thing they want to do is kill their momentum by losing this game. This is a team that's 100% locked in on making the NCAA Tournament. 

The other big thing here is that there's not a ton for Georgia State to play for either. The fact that this game doesn't mean anything to the Trojans takes away some of the motivation for the Panthers to play their best.

This is their finale game at home, which often can be big cause it's senior night. However, Georgia State is a young team. They only got one senior on the team that plays in Damon Wilson. He's a decent contributor (4th scoring option), but I don't think they are going to go all out for his final home game. 

Trojans are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Trojans are also 6-0 ATS this season when off a conference win by 10 or more (beat Lafayette 91-69 last time out). Take Arkansas-Little Rock! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY  on Wisc-Milwaukee +6 -109

Give me the Panthers and the points in their 1st round matchup of the Horizon League Championship against Youngstown State. These two teams just played each other in the regular-season finale. A game the Penguins won on the road by 4-points. It was a bit of payback, as the Panthers won the first meeting at Youngstown 75-73 in OT. 

Getting 6-points in a game that you can expect to be close is just too good to pass up. I would this line closer to the Penguins -3, simply because it's on their home floor. Milwaukee is 23-10 ATS last 33 when revenging a home loss, while Youngstown is 25-43 (36.7%) last 68 as a home favorite of 6 or less and have failed to cover 6 straight off a win by 6 or less. Take Wisc-Milwaukee! 

5* NCAAB - Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State/Weber State over 139½ -110

Easy play here on the OVER 139.5 in Monday's matchup of Big Sky bottom feeders Weber State and Idaho State. 

These two teams faced off back on Jan. 16. The Wildcats defeated the Bengals 76-68 for a combined score of 144, easily eclipsing the total of 133.5. Books have adjusted, but not enough. Big system supporting a play on the OVER. 

OVER is 112-60 (65%) over last 5 season when the road team is revenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more, as long as it's a matchup of two bad teams that have won between 20% - 40% of their games.

OVER is also 12-1 in Idaho State's last 13 games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 as a road underdog. OVER is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1 -109

Stanford is definitely worth a look here as a pick'em at home against the Buffaloes. The line really says it all. Colorado is the ranked team and yet they are the dog in the fight. I couldn't agree more. 

For one, the Cardinal are extremely tough to beat at home. Stanford is 13-4 at home this season and are fresh off a 8-point win and cover at home against the Utes. Cardinal have won 3 straight as they are surging after a midseason funk that saw them lose 7 of 8. 

As for Colorado, they are off back-to-back losses. Most recently losing by 14 at Cal as a 8.5-point favorite. Buffaloes are not a great road team and are shooting just 40% from the field away from home. Colorado has also been overvalued by the books a ton of late. Buffaloes are a miserable 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. 

Colorado is 6-16 ATS last 22 as a road underdog, while the Cardinal are 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a conference win. Take Stanford! 

5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -3 -109

I really like the value here with Tempe laying such a short number at home against the Bulls. The Owls are going to be extremely motivated to take their home floor after a couple of really close calls on the road, losing by 4 last Sunday at ECU and then by 3 at Wichita State on Thursday. 

Prior to those two losses, Temple had won 3 straight league games, including a 93-89 win over UConn in their last home game. The fact that the Owls were a 3-point favorite at home to UConn, says a lot about the value here, laying the same number against a USF team that has lost 4 of 5. 

Bulls are off a win, but that was at home against ECU and it was a game that went to OT. Could be real tough for USF to bounce back on the road, especially with two monster home games against Cincinnati and SMU looming to close out the regular-season portion of their schedule. 

Owls are 50-29 (63%) ATS in their last 79 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Temple! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Delaware -3½ -109

I got no problem here laying a small number with the Blue Hens at UNC Wilmington. Delaware has lost 3 of their last 4, which is playing into the number, but those 3 losses have come against 3 of the top 4 teams in the league. 

All that does is increase the likelihood that the Blue Hens are going to show up here with a big effort and that's really all we need. If Delaware comes to play, they should have no problem winning this game by more than the number. Blue Hens beat the Seahawks by 14 at home and the final score doesn't do justice. Delaware had a 27 point lead at one point in the 2nd half. 

Blue Hens are 38-19 ATS last 57 road games after losing 3 of their last 4 and are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings of this series. Take Delaware! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Morehead State +5 -110

I really like the value here with the Eagles catching points on the road against Eastern Kentucky. This might seem like a favorable price to back the Colonels at home given they are 11-6 in the Ohio Valley and Morehead is just 7-10. 

Thing is there's really no motivation here for EKU, who is locked into the No. 4 seed for the OVC Tournament. The Colonels also come into this game in bad form. They have lost their last two and 4 of 6 overall. 

Morehead State should be motivated to get a win here to move up in the standings. The Eagles also know they can compete with EKU, as the only lost by 7 at home to the Colonels. 

Both teams played on Thursday and that's worth noting as Eastern Kentucky is a dreadful 3-11 ATS at home when playing with one or less days of rest. Colonels are also 1-7 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS last 6 off 2 straight losses by 10 or more. Take Morehead State! 

5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE YEAR on Drake +4½ -110

I love the value here with Drake as a home dog against in-state rival UNI. Given the Panthers are 13-4 and leading the MVC, while the Bulldogs are just 8-9, you might think this is a good price to back UNI. Not me. Drake may have a losing record in league play, but that's only because they can't win on the road. 

The Bulldogs are 14-1 on their home floor this season and this is one they have had their eyes on. The Knapp Center will be close to a sellout and I fully expect Drake to win this outright. They have already knocked off other top contenders in the MVC at home in Loyola, Bradley and Indiana State. 

They did lose the first meeting to UNI by 10 points, 73-83, but that was as misleading a final as you will see. Drake led most of that game and it was tied 68-68 with just over minutes to play before the Panthers closed on a 15-5 run. 

UNI is a mere 3-12 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 season, while the Bulldogs are 37-16-2 ATS last 55 at home, 20-8 ATS last 28 off a loss and 18-5 ATS last 23 as a home dog. Take Drake! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC-Greensboro -2½ -110

The Spartans are definitely worth a look here as a slim road favorite against Chattanooga. UNC Greensboro had their 6-game home winning streak snapped in a ugly loss at home to Furman on Wednesday. With this the regular-season finale, I look for the Spartans to close things out before the Southern Conference Tournament with a big time performance. 

The Mocs come in off a home win, but only twice all season have they been able to put together back-to-back wins in conference play. Hard to see them doing against Greensboro. The Spartans whooped up on Chattanooga 72-52 in the first meeting and have won 4 straight in the series by double-digits. 

Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss and 10-4-1 ATS last 15 off a game where they failed to cover. Mocs are 2-6 ATS last 8 as a home dog and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Greensboro! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Clemson +3½ -105

I really like the Tigers as a home dog against the Seminoles in Saturday's action out of the ACC. FSU comes in sitting on top the ACC at 14-3 having just earned that spot with a 82-67 win at home over Louisville on Monday.

I just see the Seminoles having a hard time not having some kind of letdown here on the road against rival Clemson. The Tigers did lost at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but had won 3 straight prior and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 19-point loss at FSU earlier this season. 

Clemson has covered 17 of their last 24 when facing a team that has outscored opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Tigers are also 11-5 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 as a home dog. Home team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 in the series. Take Clemson! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on NC State -8 -109

I  got no problem laying a big number here with NC State at home, as I see the Wolfpack having no problem beating Pitt by double-digits on Saturday. This is a must-win for NC State, who is firmly on the bubble, even with that recent win over Duke. Wolfpack followed up that upset of the Blue Devils with a 61-67 loss at home to FSU and a 79-85 loss at UNC. 

With a road game at Duke on deck, one you know the Blue Devils are going to be ready for, this is one they have to have. Lucky for NC State they are catching Pitt at the right time. The Panthers ran out of gas in February and enter having lost 5 straight. Even more important is they have failed to cover in all 5, which really tells you have bad a shape they are in. 

During the 5-game losing streak the Panthers are scoring just 56.2 ppg, well below their conference scoring average of 62.7. NC State only gives up 66.1 ppg at home. Not only will it be tough for Pitt to score, but they don't figure to be able to slow down the Wolfpack. 

The Panthers rely heavily on turnovers defensively, as teams score at a high rate when they protect the ball. Wolfpack have a very experienced backcourt and one of the best at not turning it over. Take NC State! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Texas/Texas Tech under 127 -110

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Big 12 matchup between rivals Texas Tech and Texas. These two teams played once already this season, earlier this month, and combined for just 119 points. 

The Red Raiders were able to limit the Longhorns to just 57 points on 36% shooting on the road. It figures to be even harder for Texas to score in Lubbock, as the Longhorns only average 60.6 ppg on 40% shooting away from home. 

Also the one big weakness for Tech's defense is fouling and sending their opponents to the free throw line. Texas is one of the worst in the country in getting to the foul line (only had 8 free throw attempts at home against the Red Raiders). Without those freebies it's really hard to score against this Texas Tech defense, which is only giving up 59.3 ppg aon 39% shooting at home. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Longhorns last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 9-0 this season when revenging a loss and 8-0 last two seasons when revening a loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Davidson/Dayton under 141 -110

I like the value with the UNDER in Friday's A-10 showdown between Dayton and Davidson. These are the top two offensive teams in the A-10 and I think it has the books inflating the number on the total. We have seen them set the bar too high in Dayton games here of late, as the UNDER is 5-2 in the Flyers last 7 games. 

Both of these teams can play some defense. Both rank in the top half of the conference in defensive efficiency. Given the spotlight of this game with it being arguably the best game on the board Friday and it being the only meeting between these two programs, I think both teams are going to bring it defensively. 

UNDER is 14-5-3 in Davidson's last 22 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 7-2-2 in their last 11 as a dog. UNDER is also 15-5 in Dayton's last 20 at home after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville State +3 -110

I absolutely love the Gamecocks in this one. I look for Jacksonville State to go into the Gentry Center and lay it on Tennessee State. This is a prime spot to fade the Tigers. Tennessee State is struggling. They have lost two straight and four of five overall. 

They also are dealing with a serious injury. Big man Jy'lan Washington had to miss their last game against Morehead State and he's a massive loss for this team. The offense is drastically worse without him and the defense also regresses when he's not on the floor. His status is up in the air and even if he plays he's not likely going to be at 100%. 

Jacksonville State comes in off a 72-58 win and cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tenn-Martin. Gamecocks are 24-7 ATS last 31 road games when coming off a home win by 10 or more. Take Jacksonville State! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Temple/Wichita State over 136 -110

The OVER is definitely worth a look here between the Owls and Shockers. These two played to a final score of just 118 earlier this season. The total for that game was 136.5. The fact that the books are setting the same mark in the rematch, tells you they think that first game was a bit of a fluke. 

I completely agree. Wichita State scored just 53 points in an outright loss as a 4-point favorite. The Shockers shot terrible in that game. Largely because they were playing their second straight on the road with just 2 days of rest and the last game went to double-overtime. Not to mention a massive game on deck at home against Houston. 

Temple is giving up 72.6 ppg in league play and 78.0 ppg over their last 5. OVER has cashed in 4 of their last 6 games and is 6-1 in the Owls last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Over is also 9-3 in the Shockers last 12 as a home favorite. Take the OVER 136! 

3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Eastern Kentucky/Murray State under 150 -110

The books have been off of their game with the totals for both of these teams. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 for Eastern Kentucky and 8 of the last 9 for Murray State. I just think because the Racers are such a good team with such a potent offense, the books inflate the over knowing that's where they public will be drawn. 

What they overlook is how good this Murray State team is defensively. The Racers are tops in the Ohio Valley in defensive efficiency, ranking in the top two of both 3-point and 2-point percentage defense. They have allowed 67.1 ppg in conference games this season, but are allowing just 62.8 ppg in their last 5 and a mere 58.1 ppg at home. I just don't see this game getting into the 150's. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Duquesne/St Bonaventure under 136½ -115

The UNDER is worth a look here between St Bonaventure and Duquesne. Most will be looking to take the OVER at this price, as these two teams combined for 163 points earlier this month. I just don't see them coming close to that output. 

The two couldn't miss from deep. The Bonnies shot 10 of 21 (48%) and the Dukes were 14 of 34 (41%). Keep in mind that the meetings between these two teams last year both finished with fewer than 120 points. 

UNDER is 22-12 in St. Bonaventure's last 34 with a total of 130 to 139.5 and 30-15 in Duquesne's last 45 on the road when playing a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games at least 15 games into the season. Under is also 11-4 in the Bonnies last 15 ats a home favorite and 8-3 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +3½ -109

I love the value here with the Hokies as a home dog against in-state rival Virginia. These two did play at Virginia back in early January, which the Cavaliers won convincingly 65-39. You just can't overreact to that result. Last year Virginia won by 22 at home and then barely snuck out a 6-point win on the road. 

The Cavaliers have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, but they aren't dominating the opposition. Out of those 7 wins, 6 have come by 7-points or less with 4 decided by 3 or fewer points. 

This is also not an ideal spot for Virginia. Hard for them to take the Hokies seriously given how lopsided the last meeting was, especially with a massive game against Duke on deck this Saturday. 

Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Home team is also a dominant 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Virginia Tech!