|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-21-19||Kansas v. Villanova +2||Top||55-56||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova +2 -109
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a home dog against Kansas. The Jayhawks might be the No. 1 team in the country, but it's been a bit of a revolving door at the top of the college basketball landscape. I just think it has Kansas getting a little to much love here at No. 18 Villanova.
The Wildcats only two losses have come against the likes of Ohio State and Baylor and both of those were on the road. Villanova is 4-0 at home, where they are scoring 84.5 ppg and giving up just 62.2 ppg. This is also the first real test for KU in a true road game and I think it can be a bit of a challenge to go this deep in the season having not played in a real hostile environment.
Jayhawks are a mere 2-10 ATS last 2 seasons in road games and the Wildcats are 33-17 ATS last 3 seasons when playing a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Villanova!
|12-19-19||Portland State +5.5 v. Loyola Marymount||Top||76-66||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Small Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Portland State +5½ -111
Easy play here on the Vikings getting points against the Lions. I actually think Portland State is going to win this game outright, so this is really a no-brainer at this price. Loyola-Marymount has failed to cover their last two, including a mere 3-point win in their last home game against Prairie View A&M as a similarly priced 6-point favorite.
The Lions just aren't a team to be trusted to lay points. They don't play great defense and struggle to take care of the basketball. That could haunt them here against Portland State, which has had some success turning over the opposition. Vikings also are also a great offensive rebounding team and those second chances should pay off in this matchup.
Vikings are 15-6 ATS last 21 non-conference road games, while the Lions are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Portland State!
|12-18-19||VCU v. College of Charleston +6||Top||76-71||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on College of Charleston +6 -109
I love the value here with the Cougars as a decently priced home dog against the Rams. VCU is the household name in this matchup and I think it has them laying a few to many in this one. Note the books have really been inflating the number on the Rams of late. VCU has failed to cover five straight and are just 2-8 ATS on the season. They are also 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road.
Charleston is off to a very respectable 5-5 start. A .500 record might not seem great, but they have played the likes of Oklahoma State, Marshall, UCF (twice), Wake Forest, Providence and Richmond. Most of those games they were very competitive.
Last year the Cougars went on the road and beat VCU 83-79 as a 5.5-point dog and what I like is they got the guards to handle this Rams pressure with 3 really good ball handlers in Galloway, Jasper and Riller.
Another thing here is the Rams have not shot the ball well in 2019 and are still missing one of their better outside shooters in Malik Crowfield. Not to mention the Cougars are holding opponents to 40% from the field at home. Take Charleston!
|12-18-19||DePaul v. Cleveland State +16||73-65||Win||101||10 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland State +16 +101
I really like the value here with the Vikings as a massive home dog against DePaul. Not many people saw the Blue Demons being this good this early on in 2019. DePaul is off to an impressive 10-1 start, which includes a 7-3 ATS mark. However, we are far enough in that the betting public has caught on and now the books are really starting to inflate their price.
I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Blue Demons, as this is not a team they need their best effort against to get a win. It's their first road game in almost 3 weeks and they got a big matchup with Northwestern at home on Saturday.
Also worth noting that a lot of DePaul's ATS success has come in the role of a dog. Blue Demons are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. They are also just 2-9 ATS last 11 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take Cleveland State!
|12-17-19||San Francisco +6.5 v. Stanford||Top||56-64||Loss||-109||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +6½ -109
Love the value here with the Dons as a decently priced dog against the Cardinal. Stanford has been one of the big surprises early, as they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. However, both the betting public and the books have figured out just how good the Cardinal are and we are seeing them a little overpriced here against a good San Francisco team.
Dons are 9-2 to start the year and one of those losses is by a mere 4-points to Arizona State. That's not their only good showing against a Pac-12 foe, as they beat Cal at home by 12 earlier this month. Dons are 17-6 ATS last 23 on the road after 2 straight covers as a favorite.
Also a great system in play to fade the Cardinal. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 off a road win by 20 or more are just 17-45 (27%) ATS since 1997 in games involving 2 teams that have won 80% or more of their games. Take San Francisco!
|12-17-19||Florida v. Providence +5.5||83-51||Loss||-115||8 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence +5½ -115
I really like the value here with the Friars as a decently priced dog against the Gators in Tuesday's matchup in the Hall of Fame Invitational at the Barclays Center. Florida has been one of the most overrated teams in the country by the books. While the Gators are a respectable 6-3 SU, they are just 2-7 ATS. Last time out they lost by 14 at Butler as a mere 3.5-point dog.
Providence hasn't been much better of late, but the Friars continue to play hard and they really get after you defensively. Providence is only allowing opponents to shoot 42% from the field against them and are 11th in the country in defensive turnover rate.
Florida's lackluster offense is a big reason for their disappointing start and they have struggled against good defensive teams. Gators are just 8-17 ATS last 25 with a total of 130 to 139.5 and 5-13 ATS last 18 vs teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Providence!
|12-16-19||Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2.5||Top||85-47||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Western Illinois +2½ -110
I love the value here with Western Illinois as a small home dog against rival Eastern Illinois. Books have been consistently undervaluing the Leathernecks here of late, as they come in having covered 4 straight.
Eastern Illinois may have the better record, but they have played the much easier schedule. The Panthers also lack size, as they got a 6'5 guy playing center. The offense also doesn't produce at near the same level on the road. Eastern Illinois is averaging 78.3 ppg on the season, but just 68.3 ppg away from home.
That lack of offense on the road figures to really hurt them here, as Western Illinois comes in averaging 80.9 ppg on the season and 90.0 ppg at home, where they are shooting a healthy 48% from the field and 44% from long distance.
Leathernecks are a strong 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as a home dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Panthers are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Take Western Illinois!
|12-15-19||Samford +7.5 v. Hawaii||Top||73-94||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Samford +7½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog at Hawaii on Sunday. I know the competition hasn't been the best, but it's worth noting that Samford has scored 97 and 113 points in their last two games. In their last game they beat Houston Baptist by 23 as a mere 4.5-point favorite and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
Hawaii is 6-3, but those 6 wins are against the likes of Pacific, Portland State, Florida A&M, New Orleans, San Francisco and Hawaii Pacific. Even with that soft schedule their largest margin of victory all season is by 13-points.
Rainbow Warriors are not a team to back as a favorite, as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when laying points. They are also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Bulldogs are also a healthy 31-12-1 ATS last 44 non-conference games. Take Samford!
|12-15-19||Long Beach State v. USC UNDER 149.5||76-87||Loss||-109||9 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Long Beach State/USC under 149½ -109
The UNDER is worth a look in Sunday's NCAAB matchup that has USC hosting Long Beach State. I just think the number here is way too high for this one. I get that the 49ers aren't the best defensive team and USC has some offensive fire-power, but I think both offenses could struggle to produce in this one.
Both teams figure to be a bit rusty on offense, as USC hasn't played since Dec. 6 and Long Beach has been off since Dec. 7. Trojans last game was at TCU and they scored 80 points, but the UNDER is 8-1 in USC's last 9 at home after playing their previous game on the road, 15-6 in their last 21 as a home favorite and 11-3 in their last 14 after a game where they scored 80 or more. Take the UNDER!
|12-14-19||Gonzaga +3.5 v. Arizona||Top||84-80||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Bulldogs getting points at Arizona. While the Wildcats are greatly improved over last year and these two come into this game with identical 10-1 records, I feel Gonzaga is by far the better team.
Arizona comes in off a blowout 99-49 win and cover against Nebraska-Omaha, but prior to that had failed to cover 4 straight. Wildcats are also going to be down one of their better players in Stone Gettings.
Another key thing here is the matchup on the boards. Arizona's head coach Sean Miller flat out said his teams biggest weakness was their defensive rebounding. That's a big time problem against a Gonzaga team that is great at generating second chances by hitting the offensive glass. I just don't think the Wildcats will be able to go score-for-score with the juggernaut that is the Bulldogs offense. Take Gonzaga!
|12-14-19||UC-Davis +8 v. San Diego||54-58||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UC-Davis +8 -110
Easy play here for me on UC-Davis as a near double-digit dog against the Toreros. The Aggies are just 4-7, but the schedule has not been favorable. They also started out the season a dreadful 0-6 ATS. However, they have come to life in the last few weeks and come in having covered 4 straight and are off back-to-back outright wins as a dog.
San Diego has been on cruise control in their last two games, but are just 18-34 ATS last 52 at home after holding 2 straight opponents to 65 or less and are a dreadful 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home after leading in their previous 2 games by 10+ points at the half. Take UC-Davis!
|12-14-19||Georgia Tech +15.5 v. Kentucky||53-67||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Georgia Tech +15½ -109
I like the value here with Georgia Tech catching a big number against the Wildcats. Most are going to just look to lay the big number with Kentucky after seeing that the Yellow Jackets were trounced at home by Syracuse 97-63 in their last game. I just think we are going to get a big effort here from Georgia Tech off that ugly showing against the Orange.
On top of that, I think we could see Kentucky come out a bit flat. Wildcats haven't played in a week and in just a few days will be heading to Las Vegas to take on Utah. Wildcats are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6, so the books have definitely been inflating the number on them.
Yellow Jackets are 13-3 ATS last 16 off an upset loss by 10 or more as a favorite and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road against strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Georgia Tech!
|12-14-19||Alabama v. Penn State -10.5||71-73||Loss||-109||4 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS DESTROYER on Penn State -10½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number at home with Penn State as they get ready to host Alabama. The Nittany Lions come in off an impressive 76-69 win at home over No. 4 Maryland and should have no problem making easy work of the Crimson Tide.
With that win Penn State improved to 6-0 at home. Alabama is just 4-4 overall with their 4 wins against the likes of FAU, Furman, Southern Miss and SF Austin. Crimson Tide are just 1-3 away from home and a big reason for that is they are allowing 85.2 ppg on 48.4% shooting on the road. That's a problem, as Penn State is scoring 80.5 ppg at home.
Nittany Lions should also have a big edge here on the glass with their strong frontcourt and Alabama's guard heavy lineup. Not to mention the Crimson Tide's inability to take care of the ball. They rank 322nd in offensive turnover rate. This thing is going to get ugly in a hurry. Take Penn State!
|12-14-19||Oregon +4 v. Michigan||71-70||Win||100||2 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +4 -110
I really like the value here with the Ducks as a small road dog against the Wolverines. Few coaches are better than Oregon's Dana Altman at getting his team ready for big games. Ducks have already compiled an impressive 7-1 ATS record this season when matched up against a team with a winning record.
Michigan had that great run in the Battle 4 Atlantics, knocking off Iowa St, UNC and Gonzaga in a 3-day span. They went from unranked to the Top 10 and I'm not so sure it was warranted. Michigan has lost 2 of 3 since returning from that tournament, including a 62-71 loss at Illinois last time out.
I know the Wolverines are a good home team, but Oregon is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in their last 9 when facing a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Oregon!
|12-13-19||Prairie View A&M +7 v. Loyola Marymount||76-79||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Prairie View A&M +7 -110
The Panthers are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against Loyola Marymount. Prairie View A&M is just 3-6 overall, but that was to be expected. Panthers haven't played at home since opening the season at home on Nov. 5 against Jarvis Xian. They have played each of their last 8 games away from home and all but two have been true road games.
While the wins haven't been there, they are an impressive 5-1 ATS and roll in having covered 3 straight. They only lost by 9 last time out at Arizona State and have also lost by just 4 at both UCF and Cal, as well a mere 14-point loss at Texas. If they can go on the road in those venues and keep it that close, they are capable of covering this and even winning outright.
Lions are just 1-8 ATS last 9 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Panthers are 4-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and 6-2 ATS last 8 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Prairie View A&M!
|12-12-19||Northern Iowa -5.5 v. Grand Canyon||82-58||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Iowa -5½ -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Panthers. Dan Majerle's Antelope's team is better than their 4-7 record, but I still think they are outclassed in this one. UNI really came on strong at the end of last year and look like a team that's poised to make a serious run for a MVC title.
Panthers are 9-1 with the only loss coming by 5 to West Virginia. They just went on the road and beat Colorado 79-76 as a 9.5-point dog and that's a really impressive win with how good the Buffaloes are at home. UNI improved to 7-1 ATS on the season and a perfect 4-0 ATS away from home. Take Northern Iowa!
|12-11-19||Boise State +3 v. Tulsa||Top||56-69||Loss||-110||14 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State +3 -110
Love the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Golden Hurricane, as my numbers say Boise State should be favored here. Tulsa comes in at 7-2, but it's a fraudulent mark, as they have played the 353rd ranked strength of schedule.
We saw some of how overvalued the Golden Hurricane are in their last game, as they lost outright at home as a 13-point favorite to Arkansas State. Boise State on the other hand has been way undervalued of late. Broncos are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
I just don't see Tulsa being able to keep pace offensively. Tulsa is only averaging 70.9 ppg and that's against opponents that on average give up 75.7 ppg. Boise State is scoring 81.0 ppg and that's against opponents that are giving up just 71.0 ppg. Take Boise State!
|12-11-19||Yale v. Massachusetts +4.5||83-80||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Massachusetts +4½ -110
I like the value here with UMass as a small home dog against the Bulldogs. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Minutemen after losing 5 straight and getting drubbed in their last game at Harvard 89-55. It' also the perfect time to sell high on Yale, who has won 5 straight and covered 8 in a row.
It's not like UMass has been losing to a bunch of bad teams. They were a dog in all 5 losses and 4 of those were away from home. We should get a max effort here from the Minutemen in this one. For Yale, I think they are not only overpriced, but also in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight on the road in a 8 day stretch. Take UMASS!
|12-10-19||Nevada +8.5 v. BYU||Top||42-75||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nevada +8½ -110
I really like the value here with the Wolf Pack as a near double-digit dog against the Cougars. Steve Alford is doing a tremendous job in his first year with Nevada, despite having to put together a make-shift roster after all 5 starters and 7 of the top 8 rotation players departed.
Wolf Pack come in having won 5 straight. All five wins have come by double-digits as a single-digit favorite, so they are far exceeding the books value on them right now. Nevada definitely has the offensive fire-power to hand with BYU, as the Wolf Pack come in averaging 79.6 ppg. What's crazy is they score even more on the road, as they are scoring 81.2 ppg and shooting 49.1% from the field away from home.
BYU has not been a good bet in games that are expected to be shootouts, as they are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games with a total of 150 to 159.5. Cougars are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Nevada!
|12-10-19||Maryland v. Penn State +1||69-76||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Penn State +1 -110
This line really says it all. You got the No. 4 ranked team and undefeated (10-0) team in the country the slimmest of road favorites against an unranked Penn State team. Books clearly like the Nittany Lions to win this game and so do I.
Maryland is talented, there's no denying that, but they lack chemistry, routinely get off to slow starts and don't take high percentage shots. They were extremely fortunate to win at home against Illinois last time out, as they went on a 11-1 run in the last 5 minutes to win 59-58.
Penn State isn't just good enough to get up on the Terps, but they can bury them if Maryland doesn't bring their 'A' game tonight. Nittany Lions are 5-0 at home and are shooting 47% from the field at home, while allowing just 38%. Atmosphere is going to be electric as well and this is easily the toughest true road game of the season for Maryland. Take Penn State!
|12-08-19||Texas -8.5 v. Texas A&M||60-50||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Texas -8½ -109
I look for the Longhorns to have no problem winning by double-digits on the road against the Aggies. Texas is off to a strong 7-1 start to their season with the only loss coming on a neutral court to Georgetown.
Texas A&M is just 3-4 and have lost 3 straight. The Aggies have also been one of the most overvalued teams in the country early on, as they are a miserable 0-7 ATS. Texas A&M just can't get their offense going and are up against a really good Texas defense. Aggies come in averaging just 57.1 ppg on 36% shooting. Longhorns are giving up 59.5 ppg on 41% shooting.
Another thing is turnovers, Texas A&M does not take good care of the basketball and Texas knows how to force teams into mistakes. This should lead to a lot of easy points in transition for the Longhorns, which will allow them to win here comfortably. Take Texas!
|12-08-19||South Alabama +7 v. Richmond||57-75||Loss||-109||4 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on South Alabama +7 -109
I like the value here with the Jaguars as a decently priced road dog against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is a bit overvalued right now. Spiders have started out 7-1 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
For me the biggest thing that sticks out is the one common opponent in Auburn. While both teams lost to the Tigers, South Alabama lost by just 1-point and Richmond lost by 14. Another thing here is the Spiders could be short-handed, as two of Richmonds top scorers, Nathan Cayo and Grant Golden are both questionable to play.
Jaguars are 13-5 ATS last 18 games against a team with a winning record and a dominant 11-3 ATS last 14 vs a team that's averaging 77+ points/game. Take South Alabama!
|12-07-19||Portland v. Seattle University -4.5||71-73||Loss||-109||12 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Seattle University -4½ -109
Don't be fooled by the overall records in this one, as Portland is 6-2 and Seattle comes in at just 5-5. The value is with the RedHawks as a small favorite. Seattle comes in having won and covered 3 straight and their poor start can be attributed to a really tough schedule. Portland on the other hand has had it easy and are coming off a loss at home to CS-Northridge by 7 as a 5-point favorite.
Both of these teams have played Incarnate Word at home. Seattle won by a score of 81-60, where Portland snuck out a 65-56 win. Redhawks won by 21 despite shooting just 42% from the field and turning it over 16 times, so the gap could have been a lot larger.
Portland comes in allowing just 61.9 ppg and are holding opponents to 38% from the field. Seattle seems to play their best against good defensive teams, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Seattle!
|12-07-19||Colorado State v. Boise State -5.5||64-75||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -5½ -109
I'm confident the Broncos are going to cover the spread at home against the Rams. Boise State comes in off a mere 2-point loss at New Mexico, but covered for the 4th straight game as a 5-point dog. Clearly the books haven't been giving this team the respect they deserve and I think this line should be closer to double-digits.
Colorado State just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace in this one. Rams are only scoring 67.8 ppg away from home and will be facing a Broncos offense that is averaging 84.5 ppg on 47% shooting at home this season.
Teams off a cover where they lost as a dog are 64-33 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games involving two marginal winning teams. Take Boise State!
|12-07-19||CS Sacramento +1 v. CS-Fullerton||62-59||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS VEGAS INSIDER on CS Sacramento +1 -110
I really like the value here the Hornets at basically a pick'em against the Titans. CS-Sacramento is 5-1 with their only loss coming at Colorado, which they covered in as a 17-point dog. CS-Fullerton is just 3-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. The Titans have lost 3 straight overall.
Playing at home has not benefited Fullerton, as they are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 home games. They are also just 4-15 ATS last 19 vs a team with a winning record. Titans are 4-0 ATS on the season and are riding a 5-0 ATS run on the road. Take CS-Sacramento!
|12-07-19||Morehead State +7.5 v. Illinois State||50-61||Loss||-109||9 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Morehead State +7½ -109
I like the value here with the Eagles as a decently priced road dog against Illinois State. The Redbirds got no business here being this big of favorite against Morehead State. Illinois State is just 3-5 and while a number of those losses have come against quality teams, they also lost to Grand Canyon and their only two Div 1 wins have come by 7 or less.
I also don't love the mental state of this Redbirds team. Head coach Dan Muller, threw his team under the bus after their most recent loss to TCU, saying "We're just not good enough to win this game, a game like this." Not the first time Muller has been quick to speak poorly of his team. Clearly they aren't responding to his criticism and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if they lost this game outright. Take Morehead State!
|12-07-19||Delaware -1.5 v. George Washington||56-66||Loss||-109||6 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Delaware -1½ -109
I got no problem laying the small number here with the Blue Hens at George Washington. Delaware is off to a perfect 9-0 start to their season and have already won 4 games away from home, including 3 true road games.
As for George Washington, they are just 4-5 to start the season and have lost to the likes of Towson, American, Morgan St and UMKC. The only reason the line is low, is because they have covered 4 straight.
I just don't see GW being able to keep pace offensively. Delaware is averaging 77.1 ppg and shooting 48.9% from the field. The Colonials are only scoring 67.1 ppg and shooting 41% from the field. They will be up against a Blue Hens defense that only allows 63 ppg and 39% shooting. Take Delaware!
|12-07-19||West Virginia v. St. John's +4.5||68-70||Win||100||2 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on St. John's +4½ -109
I like the Red Storm as a home dog against the Mountaineers in Saturday's early college hoops action. I just think West Virginia is getting a little too much love here. Mountaineers could be a little rusty having only played 1 game in the last 9 days. They will also be playing their first true road game since visiting Pitt way back on Nov. 15.
St. John's comes in having won 3 straight and are 6-1 at home with their only loss coming by a mere 2-points to a decent Vermont team. What I like about the Red Storm here is they are locked in defensively to start the year. Opposing teams are shooting just 38% from the field against them on the season. West Virginia is only hitting 43% on the season and a mere 39% away from home. Take St John's!
|12-07-19||Florida v. Butler -3||62-76||Win||100||2 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Butler -3 -110
The Bulldogs are definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Gators on Saturday. Butler is a perfect 8-0 to start the season with quality wins over the likes of Minnesota, Missouri, Stanford and Ole Miss. Each of the last 3 coming away from home.
Florida is 6-2, but have not looked anything close to what we expected to see from this team coming into the year. Gators have been consistently overvalued by the books, as they are just 2-6 ATS. They have just not been able to find a rhythm offensively this year and hard to imagine they figure it out in a hostile environment against a stingy Bulldogs defense that is giving up just 55.5 ppg, while holding teams to just 40.6% shooting.
Gators are a miserable 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons vs top caliber teams that are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game and 0-6 ATS last 6 vs a team that shoots 48% or better from the field. Bulldogs are 14-5 ATS last 19 at home off a win and 13-2 ATS last 15 at home in Saturday games. Take Butler!
|12-06-19||North Dakota +7.5 v. Montana||Top||70-77||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on North Dakota +7½ -110
The Fighting Hawks are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Grizzlies. While both teams have an identical 3-5 record, North Dakota has played the tougher schedule, especially when you consider they have played just one game on their home floor all season.
While neither team is lighting it up offensively, Montana has really struggled on that side of the ball, scoring just 63.2 ppg, and are scoring 5.7 ppg under what their opponents have allowed. North Dakota is at 69.0 ppg, despite all those road games.
I also like the matchup for the Fighting Hawks, as they run their offense thru big man Filip Rebraca, who is averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.2 rpg, while shooting 63% from the field. I just don't think Montana has the guys inside to keep Rebraca from having a big game here.
Fighting Hawks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and are 8-2 ATS last 10 as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take North Dakota!
|12-05-19||Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Mississippi State||74-67||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Louisiana Tech +8½ -109
I really like the value here with Louisiana Tech as a decently priced dog at Mississippi State. Mississippi State is off to a strong 6-1 start and have covered 5 straight, but I think that has them getting a little too much respect here.
This Louisiana Tech team is the real deal. They have 4 starters back from a team that managed to win 20 games last year despite being hit hard with injuries. Louisiana Tech is off to a strong 5-2 start with their only two losses coming by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana. Two teams I think are better than Mississippi State.
Louisiana Tech can really disrupt teams with their defensive pressure. That combined with the experience they have at the guard position has them winning the turnover battle just about every time out. They have only lost the turnover battle twice all season and both times were a mere -2.
Louisiana Tech is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road dog. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-04-19||CS-Northridge v. Portland -4.5||71-64||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Portland -4½ -109
The Matadors suffered a massive blow prior to the season ever starting, as reigning Big West Player of the Year, Newcomer of the Year and Freshman of the Year, Lamine Diane, was ruled academically ineligible. CS-Northridge has started out just 1-7 without Diane and are 0-6 in games away from home, losing by an average of 21.6 ppg.
On the flip side of this, Portland has came out of nowhere to start the year 6-1, with the only loss coming at USC by a mere 11-points. Keep in mind the Pilots only won 7 games all of last year. The schedule hasn't been overly challenging, but the important thing is they are 5-1 ATS. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win here by more than the number. Take Portland!
|12-04-19||San Diego State v. Colorado State +5||79-57||Loss||-110||11 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Colorado State +5 -110
Colorado State is worth a look here as a home dog against the Aztecs. I just think San Diego State is getting a little too much respect from the books after starting out the season 8-0 SU and 6-1 ATS.
One reason to expect the Aztecs to regress is how fortunate they have been in the battle at the 3-point line. San Diego State has shot a ridiculous 40.9% from deep. Considering the national average is 33%, it's only a matter of time before they start regressing and opposing teams are only hitting 32% from deep against the Rams.
Aztecs' opponents have also shot just 26.7% from behind the 3-point line against them. They figure to struggle to improve that number here, as Colorado State is shooting 38% from deep on the season. Take Colorado State!
|12-04-19||UC-Davis v. Northern Arizona -4.5||85-66||Loss||-109||10 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Arizona -4½ -109
I like the value here with the Lumberjacks as a small home favorite against UC-Davis. Northern Arizona has to be the freshest team in the country, as they have only played 4 games all season and this will be just their 3rd in the last 19 days. That's a lot of valuable practice time, but at the same time the players have to be chomping at the bit to get on the floor against another team.
Hard to not like their chances of winning here rather easily against a struggling Aggies team that comes in having lost 6 straight. Not only that but UC-Davis has to be running on fumes with all the travel they have had to do here of late. They have played 9 games and only 1 of those were on their home court, which was back on Nov. 7th. Each of their last 3 games have been true road contests.
Aggies are just 5-14 ATS last 19 non-conference games and 7-16 ATS last 23 as an underdog. Take Northern Arizona!
|12-04-19||Virginia v. Purdue +1||40-69||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Purdue +1 -110
The Boilermakers are worth a look here as a home dog against No. 5 Virginia. The fact that the No. 5 team is basically a pick'em against an unranked opponent says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Cavaliers, which means they must really like how Purdue matches up here.
One thing is certain. The Boilermakers won't be thrown off by Virginia's grind it out style of play. Purdue ranks 348th in the country in tempo and want to win in the same way. I know the Cavaliers won at Syracuse earlier in the season, but that's a bad Orange team. This is easily their toughest true road game to date and with an offense that can't score it's hard to beat quality teams away from home.
Purdue has lost all 3 of their meetings against top programs, falling to Texas, Marquette and FSU, but were very competitive in all 3 defeats. Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a statement win against one of the nation's best teams. Take Purdue!
|12-04-19||Eastern Illinois +5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||Top||69-74||Push||0||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Illinois +5 -110
I love the value here with the Panthers as a road dog against the Mastodons. These two played last year at Eastern Illinois and IUPU-Ft Wayne embarrassed the Panthers 104-60 as a mere 3.5-point favorite. All 5 starters are back for Eastern Illinois and you can bet they have had this one circled since the schedule was released.
The Mastodons only return 2 starters from last year's team and had to replace their dynamic scoring duo of John Konchar (19.5 ppg) and Kason Harrell (15.2 ppg). IUPU comes in having won 3 straight, but it's come against some soft competition. I think we got a real taste for the talent level on this team when they lost by 39 at Ohio State.
Eastern Illinois is just 4-3, but two of those losses were on the road against Power 5 opponents in Texas Tech and Wisconsin. The other came on no rest in a tournament. Speaking of rest, the Panthers haven't played since Nov. 24, while the Mastodons just played on Saturday. Take Eastern Illinois!
|12-03-19||Florida State +3 v. Indiana||64-80||Loss||-109||11 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Florida State +3 -109
The books are making a big mistake here with listing the Seminoles as a road dog against the Hoosiers. Florida State is the No. 17 ranked team in the country and have already played true road games at BC and Florida, as well as neutral site games against Tennessee and Purdue. They are 3-1 in those games with the only loss by a mere 2-points.
Indiana is a well-known program and are simply getting a little too much love after their perfect 7-0 start to the season. The thing is, the Hoosiers should be 7-0 with who they scheduled. Indiana's strength of schedule ranks 345th out of the possible 353 Division 1 teams. They also haven't been dominating these bad teams like they should. They only beat Portland State by 11, LA Tech by 13 and S Dakota State by 14.
Indiana's offense has not been tested, so don't be fooled by their 86.4 scoring average. I think they are in for a rude awakening on the offensive side of the ball against a deep, athletic and talented FSU defense that is only giving up 59.9 ppg (holding teams 10.1 ppg under their average) and have allowed opponents to shoot just 35.8% from the field. Take Florida State!
|12-03-19||Buffalo v. Vanderbilt -2.5||Top||76-90||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Vanderbilt -2½ -110
I love the value here with the Commodores as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Vandy made a lot of buzz when they hired former NBA star Jerry Stackhouse to be their new head coach, but no one is expecting much of this team in year one.
I get it, but I think those low expectations have the Commodores undervalued here against a team they should be able to handle. Buffalo was a great story last year winning 32 games and making it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, but they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama and lost 5 seniors off that team.
Bulls have started out a respectable 5-2, but a big part of that is the schedule. I think a 63-68 home loss to Dartmouth speaks to how much less talented this team is compared to the previous two years. This is also Buffalo's first true road game of the season and that's always a difficult spot. Commodores are going to be motivated off that ugly loss to Tulsa at home last time out and are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs a team from the MAC. Take Vanderbilt!
|12-03-19||Oakland v. Western Michigan +1.5||72-62||Loss||-110||9 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers ATS Line MISTAKE on Western Michigan +1½ -110
The Broncos are worth a look here as a home dog against the Golden Grizzlies, as my numbers suggest that Western Michigan should be the ones favored in this matchup. Both teams come in at 4-4, but Oakland is just 1-4 away from home getting outscored by almost 9 ppg. Broncos are 3-0 at home winning by 22 ppg.
One of the big reasons the Golden Grizzlies are struggling away from home is they have inexperienced guards that are struggling to make the right plays, especially in the critical points of the game.
Another thing here is rest. This is Oakland's third straight true road games since last Monday. Western Michigan on the other hand has had the luxury of not playing since last Tuesday. Broncos are 48-27 (64%) ATS in their last 75 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have also covered 6 of their last 7 vs a team from the Horizon. Take Western Michigan!
|12-03-19||Jacksonville State v. George Mason -8.5||60-67||Loss||-109||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on George Mason -8½ -109
I got no problem backing the Patriots at home against Jacksonville State. George Mason is off to an impressive 8-1 start with their only setback coming in a true road game at Maryland.
That loss to the Terps seemed to light a fire under this team as they went out and won 3 games in 3 days to secure the title at the Cayman Islands Classic last week. The Patriots will certainly looked to carry over that momentum here.
George Mason has one of the best players you probably haven't heard of in junior forward A.J. Wilson. He's nearly averaging a double-double with 12.4 ppg and 9.7 rpg. He's also been a force inside averaging 3.8 blocks. He's anchoring a Patriots defense that has held opponents to 39.2% shooting from the field on the season.
The Gamecocks are just 2-4 and those two wins have come against Brecia, who has no business being on the floor with a D1 school, and Chicago State, who they were favored by 20 against (only won by 9). I just don't see them keeping this within single-digits. Take George Mason!
|12-02-19||Florida Atlantic v. St Bonaventure -1.5||64-71||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -1½ -109
The Bonnies are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em against the Owls in their final round matchup of the Boca Raton Beach Classic. FAU is lucky to even be in this game, as they barely squeaked by Illinois-Chicago 71-70 on Sunday. The Owls shot just 42% from the field and turned it over 20 times.
FAU has also been overvalued on a consistent basis by the books to start out the season. Owls are just 1-5 ATS and are failing to cover by 3.5 points/game. Also, you can just look at how bad they were in their against their two toughest opponents, losing by 14 at Miami and by 19 at Alabama.
Bonnies have won 3 of 4 since starting out 0-3 and to no surprise the turnaround has come with the recent additions of Osun Osunniyi and Jaren English to the rotation. Both were instrumental in their win yesterday over San Diego. Osunniyi had 15 points and 10 boards, while English had 2 points to go with 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals.
Owls are just 5-14 ATS last 19 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take St. Bonaventure!
|12-02-19||Furman -3.5 v. South Florida||Top||55-65||Loss||-109||9 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Furman -3½ -109
A lot of people will be wondering why Furman, a team out of the Southern Conference is laying points on the road against a Bulls team that won 24-games last year and is expected to compete for a AAC title. I believe it's for good reason.
The Paladins are off to a strong 7-1 start to the season with their only setback being a 8-point loss against a good Alabama team. There's a lot to like with Furman in this matchup. While the Paladins turned it over 17 times last time out against Arlington, that was an outlier for this team. They only had 30 turnovers in their last 3 games combined.
USF is a team that really relies on forcing turnovers, so that's not a good sign for them. Bulls are also awful at taking care of the ball. They have turned it over 15 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. USF has also not been great at defending the rim and this Paladins team ranks 13th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage.
Paladins are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games as favorite, while USF is a mere 4-14 ATS last 18 at home off a loss. Take Furman!
|12-01-19||San Diego v. St Bonaventure -2||61-70||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on St Bonaventure -2 -109
I really like the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number against the Toreros in Sunday's opening round action at the Boca Raton Beach Classic. St Bonaventure is just 2-4, but have been playing short handed early on.
They just recently added both big man Osun Osunniyi and guard Jaren English to the rotation. Both have made big impacts already and I think this team is going to have no problem here against San Diego. Toreros are just 3-5 and simply should be a much bigger dog in this fight.
Bonnies are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 neutral site games. San Diego is a miserable 7-18-1 last 26 vs a team with a losing record. Take St Bonaventure!
|12-01-19||Southern Utah v. Loyola Marymount +2||51-61||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Loyola Marymount +2 -109
The Lions are worth a look here as a home dog against the Thunderbirds. Southern Utah should not be favored in this matchup. Loyola is just 2-4, but have played a pretty tough schedule as they have been a dog in every game this season with a line posted.
I just don't like the matchup here for the Thunderbirds. You have to be able to shoot the 3-ball well against this zone defense of Loyola-Marymount that just isn't going to let you get easy looks inside. That's a problem for a Southern Utah offense that relies heavily on dribble penetration. Thunderbirds only average 6 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting just 31% from deep. Note it's much worse on the road, where they only average 4 made 3-pointers and are shooting 22%.
Turnovers also figure to play a big factor in this outcome. Lions take really good care of the ball, while Southern Utah is one of the worst in the country at giving up the rock.
Lions are 8-0 ATS last 8 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and the Thunderbirds are 0-7 ATS last 7 on the road after winning 2 of their last 3. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|12-01-19||Rhode Island v. West Virginia -9||Top||81-86||Loss||-110||4 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -9 -110
I love the value here with West Virginia laying single digits at home against the Rams. No surprise that Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers back on track after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign. West Virginia is 6-0 and there's no question this year's team is light years better than last years.
Rhode Island is off to a strong 5-2 start, but have a couple of ugly losses on the resume. They fell by 18 at Maryland and by 13 to LSU on a neutral site. West Virginia is a very difficult place to play and I just don't see the Ram being able to keep this close.
Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS last 11 non-conference games and have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 3 of 4. Take West Virginia!
|11-30-19||Green Bay +6 v. Montana State||98-72||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on Green Bay +6 -115
I like the value here with the Phoenix as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. Green Bay is just 2-4, while Montana State is 5-2, but the Phoenix have played the much tougher schedule. Three of their four losses are true road games against the likes of Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin.
Green Bay does come in off an ugly 99-81 loss to Colgate, but are 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU Loss. The Phoenix are also 6-1 ATS last 7 times they have played a team from the Big Sky Conference. Bobcats are off a 82-46 blowout win over Colorado Christian, but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win by more than 20 and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay!
|11-30-19||Denver +1 v. SE Missouri State||51-66||Loss||-104||6 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Denver +1 -104
I like the value here with the Pioneers in their matchup against SE Missouri State. My numbers suggest the wrong team is favored in this one. The Redhawks are just 2-4 and their only two wins are against Missouri S&T and IUPU-Ft Wayne. Both wins coming by a mere 1-point.
SE Missouri State comes in off a cover in a 75-87 loss as a 14-point dog to Santa Clara, but are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they enter off a cover. They are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take Denver!
|11-30-19||East Carolina v. James Madison -1.5||89-99||Win||100||5 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on James Madison -1½ -109
The Dukes are worth a look as a small home favorite against the Pirates. I'm just not a fan of this East Carolina team and how they play. The Pirates are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, as they come in shooting just 23.7% from deep and are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers a game.
ECU is only shooting 41% from the field in all and really need to get to the foul line to score and that's a big problem here. James Madison doesn't foul. Their opponents average just 13 free throw attempts per game. On the flip side, ECU fouls like crazy, so there's going to be a major discrepancy at both the 3-point and foul line, two major obstacles to overcome.
ECU is just 12-23 ATS last 35 vs a team with a winning record, 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take James Madison!
|11-30-19||NC-Greensboro +7 v. Georgetown||65-61||Win||100||3 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS MASSACRE on NC-Greensboro +7 -115
UNC Greensboro is worth a look here as dog against the Hoyas on Saturday. This might seem like a small number for Georgetown to be laying against a team from the Southern Conference, but I really like this Spartans team. Their only two setbacks are a 1-point loss to Montana State and a mere 12-point setback at Kansas.
One key area that should give Greensboro a shot at pulling off the upset is turnovers. The Spartans are one of the best in the country at putting pressure on their opponents, as they come in 10th in the nation forcing turnovers on more than 1/4 (26.5%) of their opponents possessions. Georgetown does not take good care of the ball, as rank 278th with a turnover rate of 22.2%.
Hoyas are also just 8-19 ATS last 3 seasons as a home favorite and a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference home games. Take UNC Greensboro!
|11-29-19||Iowa v. San Diego State -2||73-83||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on San Diego State -2 -104
I really like the spot and price we are getting with the Aztecs as a short favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in off a huge upset of No. 12 Texas Tech, as they downed the Red Raiders 72-61 as a 7.5-point underdog.
Give the Hawks credit, but I think that was more of Texas Tech beating themselves than anything. Red Raiders shot just 32.8% from the field and were a dreadful 4-24 (17%) from long distance. That's the same Iowa defense that gave up 93 points on 61% shooting at home to DePaul earlier this season.
As for San Diego State, I think the Aztecs are a flying a bit under the radar, as this is a Top 25 team in my eyes. SDST improved to 7-0 with a emphatic 83-52 win over Creighton yesterday. They are giving up 55.4 ppg on just 36% shooting and holding teams almost 15 points under their scoring average. Iowa's offense is going to struggle and the defense is poised to regress. Take San Diego State!
|11-29-19||UAB v. Kentucky UNDER 130||Top||58-69||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB /Kentucky under 130 -110
I love the value here with the UNDER in this one. While UAB has little to no shot of winning this game, I think the Blazers are good enough defensively to hold their own against an injury plagued Kentucky team to keep this UNDER the mark.
UAB's defense is the main reason they are off to a strong 4-1 start. Blazers only average 64.0 ppg, but are holding teams to just 58.4 ppg. While the strong defensive play has come against some weak competition, they are holding teams a full 8-points under their scoring average.
Kentucky's defense has been outstanding, as they are allowing just 61.7 ppg and holding teams almost 12 points under their average. I could easily see the Blazers failing to score more than 50 and I just don't see Kentucky's offense going off for 80+ in this one.
UNDER is 10-2 in UAB's last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 10-2 in Kentucky's last 12 non-conference, 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 20+ and 13-3-1 in their last 17 vs a team from C-USA. Take the UNDER!
|11-29-19||SIU-Edwardsville +12.5 v. Cal-Riverside||51-69||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on SIU-Edwardsville +12½ -110
SIU-Edwardsville is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Highlanders. UC-Riverside comes in off 3 straight wins, but it's nothing to get overly excited about. The wins were against the likes of Longwood, Denver and Redlands. I just think it has them way overvalued, as they got no business laying this kind of number.
The Cougars are just 2-5, but have played the much tougher schedule. They failed to cover in their last game at Pacific, but that's almost better for us here, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Riverside is just 6-17 ATS last 23 off a win, 1-5 ATS last 6 off a cover and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a favorite of 10 or more. Take SIU-Edwardsville!
|11-29-19||Michigan v. Gonzaga -3||82-64||Loss||-109||3 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Gonzaga -3 -109
I just really like this Gonzaga team and feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Bulldogs. Michigan has impressed early on and are off that big upset over No. 6 UNC on Thanksgiving Day.
Not to take anything away from the Wolverines, but they simply couldn't miss. Michigan shot 50% from the field and 42% from deep. It's hard to stack those kinds of games on top of each other, especially against elite competition.
Gonzaga is every bit as good as they have been in the past few years and I think it says a lot about this team being able to beat a really good Oregon team, despite an off night shooting. Bulldogs hit just 39% from the field and 32% from deep.
Wolverines are just 1-8 last 9 times they come into a game having covered 4 of their last 5. Underdogs in November who are shooting 52% or better from the field are also a mere 16-41 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Gonzaga!
|11-28-19||UCF +2.5 v. Pennsylvania||67-68||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCF +2½ -110
I'll take my chances here with the Knights in their opening round matchup against Penn in the Wooden Legacy out in Anaheim. UCF has started out 3-1 with their only loss coming to Miami. They responded to that setback with two impressive wins over Illinois State and Charleston.
Penn comes in off a big upset win over Providence, but the Quakers have also lost to the likes of Rice and Lafayette by double-digits as favorites. Big thing for me is I don't think Penn will have much left in the tank for this tournament. Quakers have played 4 of their first 5 on the road.
Knights are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 away from home in the month of November and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Quakers just 1-4 ATS last 5 on a neutral site. Take UCF!
|11-28-19||Davidson +3.5 v. Marquette||Top||63-73||Loss||-109||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Davidson +3½ -109
I love the value here with Davidson as a small dog against Marquette, as I think the Wildcats win this game outright. I know Davidson is just 2-3, but the schedule hasn't been easy. Marquette has a special player in Markus Howard, but I just like the overall talent with this Golden Eagles team.
While this will be on a neutral site, Marquette did not fair well in their only other game away from home this season, losing by 16 as a mere 2-point dog to Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles let the Badgers connect on 11 3-pointers in that loss and Davidson is a team that can light it up from deep. Wildcats come in shooting 39% from deep and are averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game.
Marquette is just 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Davidson!
|11-27-19||Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5||69-71||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon -1½ -110
This one is pretty simple. When Dana Altman's Ducks are matched up against a ranked team, you back Oregon. The Ducks are a dominant 18-2-1 ATS since 2015 against ranked opponents.
As good as Seton Hall has looked early on, I would argue that Oregon has looked even better. While Seton Hall has that close call at home against Michigan State, that's really the only tough matchup they have had. Ducks have beat the likes of Boise State, Memphis and Houston and the closest any team has got to beating them is 8-points.
Ducks are also 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral site and a perfect 7-0 ATS when they come in having covered 4 or more in a row. Take Oregon!
|11-27-19||Niagara +9.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||54-77||Loss||-109||9 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Niagara +9½ -109
The Purple Eagles are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Jaguars. Niagara is way undervalued here due to the fact that they have started out 0-4. Thing is 3 of those were true road games against better teams and they were also a dog in their lone home loss.
IUPU-Ft Wayne is 3-5 and have two wins against non-D1 schools and the other was against an awful Stetson team. The Jaguars have no business laying double-digits in this game. They are just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record, while the Purple Eagles 12-3 ATS last 15 after 2 or more straight losses. Take Niagara!
|11-27-19||St. Louis +3 v. Boston College||Top||64-54||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. Louis +3 -109
Love the value here with St Louis getting points against the Eagles. This will be the Billikens first road game of the season after 6 straight at home, but I'm not concerned. St Louis is 5-1 with their only loss against currently No. 13 ranked Seton Hall.
These two have played 3 common opponents. Billikens are 3-0 and outscored those 3 teams by 13.2 ppg. BC is 2-1 and only outscoring those teams by 5 ppg. Eagles come in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time out shot just 36% from the field against DePaul.
Look for junior big man Hasahn French to have his way in this one. French is one of the best players in the American and should dominate inside not only scoring but on the boards. BC doesn't have a ton of size and rank near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebound rates.
Eagles are just 1-9 ATS last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home after 2 straight non-conference games. Take St Louis!
|11-26-19||Dayton -1 v. Virginia Tech||89-62||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dayton -1 -109
The Flyers are worth a look here as a pick'em against the Hokies on Tuesday. Most will be looking to take Virginia Tech here as they just knocked off No. 3 Michigan State last night 71-66 as a 13-point dog. Thing is, those big upset wins are often times the toughest to bounce back from.
That win also keeps Dayton from potentially overlooking the Hokies, who honestly weren't expected to do a lot this season. Flyers had a pretty impressive win of their own yesterday, as they throttled Georgia 80-61 to improve to 4-0 and 3-1 ATS.
One thing I really like about Dayton right now is they are red-hot from deep. They hit 10 3-pointers two games ago against Nebraska-Omaha and connected on 16 of 19 from long range against the Spartans. Flyers are 15-4 ATS last 19 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Take Dayton!
|11-26-19||Richmond v. Auburn -8||65-79||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Auburn -8 -109
Easy play here on Auburn laying single-digits against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is getting a little too much love here after yesterday's 62-52 upset win over Wisconsin. It's just not easy for these smaller teams to pull off back-to-back upsets, especially in a 2-day stretch.
Auburn showed they were all business in this tournament, as they improved to 6-0 with a 84-59 blowout win over New Mexico as a 9-point favorite. Keep in mind not only are the Tigers more athletic and talented, they are a much deeper team. Richmond had 3 different guys play 34+ minutes in the win over Wisconsin (only one bench player recorded double-digit minutes).
Tigers are now 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, 10-1 ATS last 11 tournament games and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 when playing on 1 or less day of rest. Take Auburn!
|11-26-19||Wisconsin -5 v. New Mexico||50-59||Loss||-109||6 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -5 -109
We are getting a great price here with the Badgers coming off yesterday's upset loss to Richmond. Wisconsin's defense did their part holding the Spiders to 62 points, but the offense just couldn't buy a basket, as they shot just 17-50 (34%) and were 7-27 (26%) from deep.
While the Badgers offense is not going to be an offensive juggernaut, I would expect them to shoot the ball a lot better today. One big reason for that is they should get some nice looks off turnovers. New Mexico coughed up the rock 24 times in yesterday's 25-point loss to Auburn.
With that loss the Lobos fell to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. New Mexico is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs a good defensive team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Wisconsin!
|11-26-19||Murray State -8 v. Weber State||Top||69-68||Loss||-110||3 h 26 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Early Bird PLAY OF THE MONTH on Murray State -8 -110
Love the value here with the Racers laying single-digits against the Wildcats. Both teams lost their opening round game yesterday in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Weber State had no business being a 7.5-point favorite yesterday against Wright State and it showed, as they got blown out of the gym, losing 72-57.
The Wildcats are now just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming against West Coast Baptist. In their other two games they lost 89-34 at Utah State as a 16.5-point dog and 71-56 as a 2-point home favorite against San Diego.
I know Racers were upset yesterday by LaSalle, but that only makes me like them more in this spot. Murray State is still 3-2 on the season with their only other loss being a true road game at Tennessee. Racers are 10-4 ATS last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Take Murray State!
|11-26-19||Tenn-Martin +6 v. Gardner-Webb||64-81||Loss||-110||2 h 17 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tenn-Martin +6 -110
I like the value here with the Skyhawks as a decently priced dog in Tuesday's opening round matchup in the Cancun Challenge. There's no reason for Gardner Webb to be laying this kind of number here. The Runnin' Bulldogs have started out 0-5 and while a lot of those have come on the road against Power 5 teams, they also lost at home to Furman.
Another thing here is Gardner Webb has to be running on fumes, as they have played 4 straight on the road before making the trip to Cancun for this tournament. The most recent coming Friday at South Carolina. While Tenn-Martin has also played their last 3 on the road, they have been off since last Tuesday.
Skyhawks are 8-1 ATS last 9 games vs a team that's been outscored by 4+ points/game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Tenn-Martin!
|11-25-19||Northwestern v. Bradley -2||78-51||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bradley -2 -104
The Braves are definitely worth a look here as a small favorite against the Wildcats. Bradley has won 4 straight since an opening night loss at St Joseph's, who has looked pretty good early on. These two have played 2 common opponents, Northwestern is just 1-1 with 0.0 scoring margin, while the Braves are 2-0 with a +10.5 ppg scoring margin.
This is going to be a long season for the Wildcats, who lost their top 3 scores from a team that won just 13 games (4-16 Big Ten) and finished a pathetic 316th in scoring at 65.9 ppg. This is a very young team and will be going on the road for the first time after playing 4 straight at home.
Bradley on the other hand has a lot coming back from a team that caught fire in the 2nd half of the season and wound up making the NCAA Tournament by winning the MVC Conference title. Braves will bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Bradley!
|11-25-19||CS-Northridge v. Green Bay -7.5||84-85||Loss||-109||9 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Green Bay -7½ -109
Easy play here with the Phoenix laying single digits against the Matadors. CS-Northridge has started out 0-6 with all 6 losses coming by double-digits. They have shown absolutely no ability to be competitive and it's resulted in a 1-5 ATS mark during their awful start.
I expect it to continue here. Wisconsin-GB is just 1-3, but their 3 losses have all come on the road against quality teams in Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin. They not only are the better team, but have a big edge here in rest, as CS-Northridge just played yesterday against Colgate, while the Phoenix are playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 13th.
Struggling early is nothing new for the Matadors, as they are 22-47-3 ATS last 72 non-conference games. Phoenix on the other hand are a dominant 12-4 ATS last 16 off a loss and have covered 5 of 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay!
|11-25-19||Loyola Maryland -2 v. IUPU-Indianapolis||81-77||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Loyola Maryland -2 -109
The Greyhounds are worth a look here a small favorite against IUPUI in the first round of the Cayman Islands Mainland. Loyola-MD has covered 3 straight and are fresh off a mere 4-point loss at George Mason as a 8-point dog. They are just 2-3 overall, but have played 4 of 5 on the road.
IUPUI has a big upset win at USF, but that's it. They also followed up that win over the Bulls with a 23-point loss at Loyola-Illinois. The Jaguars are just 1-3 ATS on the season. In the loss to the Ramblers they gave up 85 points and that's worth noting, as they are 0-6 ATS last 3 seasons after allowing 85 or more.
Greyhounds are 19-7 ATS last 26 on the road after covering a game on the road where they lost outright. IUPUI is also a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been matched up against a team with a losing record. Take Loyola-MD!
|11-24-19||Hofstra -2 v. CS-Fullerton||79-57||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Hofstra -2 -109
I got no problem laying a short number here with the Pride at CS-Fullerton. Hofstra just went on the road an upset UCLA 88-78 as a 14.5-point dog on Thursday. That's a big time momentum boost for this team. It definitely makes the quick turnaround on the road a lot easier.
I also think they could catch Fullerton a bit flat here. The Titans only game in the last 11 days is a home game against Stanislaus State. Their last game against a Div. 1 opponent was back on Nov. 13th. Not to mention this is a team that's picked to finish near the bottom of the Big West Conference.
Pride are 21-7 ATS last 28 as a road favorite of 3 or less and 12-4 ATS last 16 non-conference games. Fullerton is just 2-9 ATS last 11 at home and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a road game. Take Hofstra!
|11-24-19||Middle Tennessee v. Ohio -1.5||63-75||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -1½ -109
Definitely worth a look here on Ohio as a small home favorite. The Bobcats come in having lost 3 straight, but those 3 defeats have come against Villanova, Baylor and Utah. Prior to that they had won their first 3 games, which included upset road wins over St Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog and Iona as a 4.5-point dog.
Ohio has shot the ball well at 45.3% and are averaging 9 made 3-pointers. Blue Raiders have really struggled with strong offense teams that can shoot from deep. Middle Tennessee is just 2-13 ATS last 15 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers and 3-12 ATS last 15 vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field.
Blue Raiders are just 9-18 ATS last 27 as a dog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Ohio!
|11-24-19||Air Force v. Indiana State -2||74-84||Win||100||6 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Indiana State -2 -109
I like the value here with the Sycamores as a small favorite against the Falcons. Air Force comes in having lost 3 straight and have simply not shot shot the ball well. During the losing streak they have hit 42% or worse from the field in each game. They are also getting ominated on the board and losing the turnover battle.
Indiana State is just 1-4, but they got their first win last time out against Loyola-Marymount, winning 72-60 as a slim the 3-point favorite. That's the same Loyola team that just a day earlier beat Air Force by 14. Falcons are just 2-7-1 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and the Sycamores are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a team from the MWC. Take Indiana State!
|11-24-19||Mississippi State v. Coastal Carolina +6||81-56||Loss||-110||3 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Coastal Carolina +6 -110
I like the value here with the Chanticleers as a decently priced dog against Mississippi State. I just feel Coastal Carolina will be the more motivated team here in the 3rd place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. It certainly helps the game is being played on their home court.
Coastal Carolina has one of the better coaches not many people know about in Cliff Ellis and his Chanticleers have shown they can compete with the big boys in this tournament. They knocked Utah 79-57 before losing a closely contested game 77-65 to Baylor.
Mississippi State is coming off a crushing loss to No. 17 Villanova, where they gave the Wildcats all they could handle. For a team that only plays 7 guys, I just think they are poised to come out a little flat here. Take Coastal Carolina!
|11-23-19||Boise State v. Pacific +4||82-76||Loss||-109||8 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacific +4 -109
I like the value here with Damon Stoudamire's Tigers getting points at home against the Broncos. Boise State comes in off a thrilling an emotional 72-68 OT win at home over BYU and I think it has the Broncos primed for a letdown on the road against a hungry and what looks to be an improved Pacific team.
Keep in mind Boise State did not play well at all in their first road game, getting annihilated by Oregon 106-75 as a mere 10.5-point dog. Last time out the Tigers won won 64-60 at home against Coppin State, but failed to cover as a 13-point favorite. That's actually a positive here, as they are a dominant 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite.
Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and a mere 8-21-1 ATS last 30 vs a team that simply has a winning record. Take Pacific!
|11-23-19||Denver +7 v. Cal-Riverside||49-73||Loss||-109||7 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Denver +7 -109
Really like the value here with the Pioneers getting what I feel is a big number against UC-Riverside. I get Denver hasn't looked great in their first two road games, but that was against much better competition. The Anteaters aren't just a team they can keep it close against, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
UC-Riverside just isn't good enough on the offensive end to be laying this many points against a similarly skilled opponent. The Anteaters are only averaging 60.0 ppg and that's with a 76-point outburst in their last game against non-D1 foe Redlands.
Coming off a win is also a good time to fade Riverside, as they are just 3-14 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 1-9 ATS last 10 after holding their previous opponent to 60 or fewer points (held Redlands to 44). Take Denver!
|11-23-19||Rider v. Columbia||87-63||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Rider PK -109
The Broncs are worth a look here as a pick'em on the road against the Lions. I get Columbia's 1-4 start can be attributed to playing 4 of their first 5 on the road, but their lone win was a mere 12-point victory at home against Binghamton, who is one of the worst teams in the America East Conference.
Rider's last two have come as dogs against a couple of decent teams in Arizona State and UMass. That's worth noting, as the Broncs are a strong 30-8 ATS in their last 38 after playing 2 straight as a dog.
There's also a strong system in play favoring the Broncs. Underdogs that are an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games are 31-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Rider!
|11-23-19||Manhattan v. Elon +1.5||69-64||Loss||-110||5 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Elon +1½ -110
The Fighting Phoenix are definitely worth a look as a home dog against Manhattan on Saturday. Elon comes in having lost 3 straight, but all 3 were on the road against Power 5 teams. They didn't sniff a win in any of those games, but did cover the number in all 3 matchups.
The Jaspers haven't looked like a team that many thought would contend for the MAAC title. They only won by 11 at home in their opener against Delaware State and last time out fell 57-70 at Samford, who is a middle of the pack team in the Southern Conference.
Manhattan is also a team that relies a lot on turnovers, as they don't shoot the ball well (37.9% from the field on the season). That's a problem against the Fighting Phoenix, who rank inside the Top 20 in the country in offensive turnover rate, giving up the rock just 14.5% of their possessions. A really remarkable stat given their last 3 games were against Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. Take Elon!
|11-23-19||Ole Miss v. Memphis -4||86-87||Loss||-105||2 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -4 -105
I really like the value here with Memphis laying a short number against the Rebels at home. I think we are getting value with the Tigers because of the recent suspension handed to star freshmen big man James Wiseman and the fact that they only beat Arkansas-Little Rock by 10 as a 16.5-point favorite last time out.
I just don't think that was a focused Memphis team in that recent victory over the Trojans. Which says a lot that they were still able to win by double-digits. Keep in mind the news of Wiseman's suspension came just hours before the game. I expect a much more focused Tigers team on Saturday.
As for Ole Miss, they are 4-0, but that was to be expected given their cupcake schedule to start the season. Rebels 4 wins are against Arkansas State, Norfolk State, Western Michigan and Seattle. All teams they were favored by at least 18.5 points against. This is a massive step up in competition and it's their first true road game of the season. Take Memphis!
|11-22-19||Temple +10.5 v. USC||Top||70-61||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +10½ -109
I love the value here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. USC has got off to a strong start with a 5-0 record in their first 5 games, but they won by 7 at home against Pepperdine last time out and also only beat Portland at home by 11.
Owls have also not lost with a 3-0 record, but they are 0-3 ATS and I think we are getting value because of their poor showing against the number. It's not like they haven't been close to covering. They won by 8 as a 12-point favorite against Drexel, by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite against Morgant St and by 5 as a 6-point favorite at LaSalle.
I think the Owls have a decent edge here being the fresher team having played 3 games to USC's 5 and the fact that they are playing this game on 5 days rest, while the Trojans are on just 2 days of rest.
Owls are 40-23 ATS last 63 on the road off a no-cover where they won as a favorite. Take Temple!
|11-22-19||Houston +8 v. Oregon||66-78||Loss||-109||11 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Houston +8 -109
No question the Ducks should be favored at home, but this is just too many points for the Cougars to be catching in this one. Houston is simply undervalued here after failing to cover their last two games, where they lost by 1 as a 11.5-point home favorite to BYU and only beat Rice by 9 as a 13-point favorite.
Oregon on the other hand is overvalued after covering 3 straight. The Ducks are just 16-26 ATS last 42 at home against top tier teams that come in shooting 45% or better from the field while holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field.
Cougars are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games, 11-3 ATS last 14 off a game where they won but didn't cover as a favorite and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3. Take Houston!
|11-22-19||Towson v. Buffalo -5||73-76||Loss||-109||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -5 -109
Easy play here on the Bulls laying what I feel is a really short number against the Tigers. Both teams played and lost in the opening round of the Charleston Classic. Buffalo had the much better showing losing by just 11 to UConn, while Townson got annihilated by 22 against Xavier. Bulls only trailed by 6 with just over 2 minutes to play.
Buffalo is considered by many the favorite to win the MAC this year, while Towson is a middle of the pack team in the Colonial. Even though the Bulls didn't cover as a 2.5-point dog against the Huskies, they are still 21-8-2 ATS last 31 on a neutral site.
Towson is just 6-15 ATS last 23 when playing their 2nd game in 3 days. They are also 6-15 ATS last 21 on the road after failing to cover and 0-8 ATS last 8 on the road when they come in having failed to cover 2 of 3. Take Buffalo!
|11-22-19||Maryland-Baltimore County v. Eastern Michigan||45-62||Loss||-110||4 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Maryland-Baltimore County PK -110
I like the value here with UMBC this afternoon in opening round action in the Jamaica Classic. The Retrievers will forever be remembered as the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and UMBC has the looks of a team that could get back to the big dance by winning the America East this year.
Whether or not that happens, I really like them to take down Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have started out 4-0, but three of their games were so lopsided they didn't even have lines. They did upset North Texas on the road as a 9-point dog, but that Mean Green team is picked to finish near the bottom of the AAC this year.
Prior to covering against North Texas, Eastern Michigan was working on a 1-9 ATS run in non-conference games. Retrievers are 5-1 ATS last 6 on a neutral site and 8-1 ATS last 9 in tournament games. Take UMBC!
|11-22-19||Cleveland State +7 v. NC-Wilmington||47-46||Win||100||2 h 28 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland State +7 -105
I'll take the points with the Vikings in this matchup of two small conference bottom feeders. Cleveland State is picked to finish near the bottom of the Horizon, while UNC-Wilmington is picked to finish near the basement of the Colonial.
The value with the Vikings in this one stems from their 1-4 start to the season, but it's really not that surprising to see Cleveland State sitting where they are. The schedule has been brutal, as their 4 losses are road games against Minnesota, Missouri State and South Carolina and a home loss to a really good FIU team.
Not only should facing a similarly skilled opponent help the Vikings, but they are a team that likes to play fast. That's evident by their 11-3 ATS mark over the last 3 seasons in games against up-tempo teams that average 62+ shots/game. Seahawks are just 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat NC Wesleyan 113-53 last time out). Take Cleveland State!
|11-21-19||California +20.5 v. Duke||52-87||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on California +20½ -110
I really like the value here with Cal as a massive road dog against Duke in the opening round of Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden. You just know that with how much the public loves to back the Blue Devils the line is inflated.
After covering their first 3, Duke was a 28.5-point favorite at home against Georgia State and wound up only winning by 11. I'm not saying the Golden Bears got a shot at pulling off the upset, but I fully expect them to make a game of it.
Blue Devils are a team that loves to get out in transition, while Cal is a team that wants to make you play in the halfcourt. I think they can keep Duke from running and really force them to work offensively, which should allow them to keep it close.
Golden Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games off 3 or more straight home wins, while Duke is just 2-11 ATS last 13 vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Cal!
|11-21-19||Xavier v. Towson +9.5||73-51||Loss||-109||8 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Towson +9½ -109
I really like the value here with the Tigers as a near double-digit dog against the Musketeers. Xavier is off to a 4-0 start and to no surprise as a lot of people are expecting a big bounce back season after last year struggles.
However, the books were well aware the public was going to be on the Musketeers and have overpriced them. Xavier has failed to cover in all 4 wins and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
This Towson team is also no joke. The Tigers only lost by 6 last time out as a 18-point road dog against a really talented Florida team. With that cover they are now 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Towson!
|11-21-19||North Florida v. Iowa -14.5||68-83||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa -14½ -113
I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in a win and cover at home against North Florida. I was impressed with how Iowa bounced back from that ugly home loss to DePaul with a win and cover against Oral Roberts.
The Ospreys have won 4 straight, but it's come against some bad competition. The only real quality opponent they have faced is Florida on the road and they lost by 15. Keep in mind the Gators really haven't looked good early on, so it's not really asking much for Iowa to win by that same amount.
Hawkeyes are a solid 31-17 in their last 48 at home vs a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games and 8-0 ATS at home vs teams like North Florida that like to play at a fast pace an average 62+ shots/game. Take Iowa!
|11-21-19||Loyola Marymount +3.5 v. Air Force||78-64||Win||100||5 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Loyola Marymount +3½ -110
I'm confident the Lions will cash in a cover here as a small dog against Air Force, as these two face off in the opening round of the Junkanoo Jam in the Bahamas. The Falcons come in off a close loss at TCU, where they were right there with a chance to win late and easily covered as a 16-point dog. It was Air Force's third straight cover and I think it has them getting a little too much love in this spot.
The Falcons just played that game at TCU on Monday and have not played at home since Nov. 9th. Loyola is going to be the much fresher team in this one. They have been at home since Nov. 9th and haven't played since Saturday.
Air Force is just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 on the road after covering 3 of their last 4 and a mere 3-12 ATS last 15 on the road off a cover in a straight up loss as a dog. Lions are 21-10 ATS last 31 in non-conference road games. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|11-20-19||BYU v. Boise State +1||68-72||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State +1 -105
I love this spot and price with the Broncos at basically a pick'em at home against the Cougars. BYU comes into this game off a thrilling 72-71 win at Houston as a 11.5-point underdog, but I think it has them overvalued. Prior to beating Houston they only beat Southern Utah by 5 as a 11.5-point dog and lost by 5 at home to San Diego State as a 4-point favorite.
Boise State comes in just 1-2 and off two straight losses, but one of those was at Oregon, who looks like a legit Pac-12 contender and the other was to UC-Irvine, the favorites to win the Big West. I think we get a really big effort here from the Broncos on 4 days rest, while BYU could be a bit sluggish off the big upset win.
Offense has not been a problem for Boise, who is averaging 87 ppg and shooting 47% from the field. That's worth noting as the Cougars are just 5-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Boise State!
|11-20-19||UC-Davis +4 v. CS Sacramento||Top||51-61||Loss||-104||10 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UC-Davis +4 -104
Easy play here on UC Davis as a dog against Big Sky bottom feeder Sacramento State. The Aggies come in at just 2-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have also played 4 of 5 away from home. Sacramento State is 2-0, but their toughest opponent was UC-Riverside, who expected to be at or near the bottom of the Big West.
UC Davis has been very profitable in this spot, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. The Hornets defense has looked great against a couple of weak opponents, but are just 2-10 ATS last 12 times they have faced a team like UC Davis that is shooting 48% or better from the field and have lost in this spot by almost 15 ppg. Take UC Davis!
|11-20-19||Siena +5.5 v. Yale||89-100||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Siena +5½ -110
The Saints are worth a look here as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Siena has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS to start out the season and have done so against some decent competition. Last time out the Saints nearly upset the Ivy League favorites on the road, as they fell 56-59 at Harvard, easily covering as a 10.5-point dog.
Now they face another Ivy team in Yale, who has lost two straight and really struggling to get their offense going. In their 3 games against Div. 1 opponents the Bulldogs have shot 39% or worse from the field. That's a big concern, as Siena has been rock solid on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have held Harvard to 40% shooting, St. Bonaventure to 38% and Xavier to 43%.
Not a big surprise to see Yale struggle, as they lost 3 starters, including their best player in Miye Oni. Siena will have the best player on the floor in this one in sophomore point guard Jalen Pickett. Last year Pickett had to basically do it all on his own as a freshmen. This year he's got some help. Mount St. Mary's transfer Donald Carey is putting in 16 ppg and Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns is at 15.5 ppg. Take Siena!
|11-19-19||New Mexico +1 v. UTEP||63-66||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +1 -110
I believe the fact that UTEP has started out 3-0 has the Miners getting way to much respect here at home against the Lobos. I would definitely have New Mexico favored in this one.
Thanks to a lot of transfer additions, the Lobos have one of the most talented teams in the MWC this year and they have lived up to the hype early on with a 4-0 start, all 4 wins coming by double-digits.
UTEP simply hasn't played anyone. Their 3 wins are against the likes of New Mexico Highlands, New Mexico State and East New Mexico. That's two of three games against non-D1 competition. They should be averaging a lot more than 76.3 ppg.
I just don't see them keeping pace with New Mexico, who averages 93.0 ppg on 54% shooting. Lobos are simply the more talented team and it wouldn't shocked me if they made it 5 straight wins by double-digits. Take New Mexico!
|11-19-19||Fairfield +26 v. Maryland||55-74||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +26 -105
I think we are getting a great price here with the Stags as a massive road dog against the No. 7 ranked Terps. Maryland hasn't had to sweat anything early on and I just think they are going to have a hard time giving a pretty mediocre Fairfield team their full attention.
Terps have covered their last two, beating Rhode Island by 18 as a 12-point favorite and Oakland by 30 as a 18.5-point favorite. This will be the most they have been asked to lay since they were a 28.5-point favorite in their opener against Holy Cross, a game in which they failed to cover.
Stags are just 1-3 SU, but are 3-1 ATS and could easily be 4-0 both SU and ATS. They have two losses by 4-points or less and 9-point loss in OT, which was the only game they failed to cover as a 5-point dog. Fairfield has 3 double-digit scorer, led by Jesus Cruz's 19.5 ppg. Even if this gets ugly early, they should be able to climb through the backdoor and cash a winner. Take Fairfield!
|11-19-19||Manhattan +5 v. Samford||57-70||Loss||-105||9 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +5 -105
I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Bulldogs. Manhattan is off to a strong 2-0 start and just won outright as a home dog against Albany in their last game. Jaspers won that game holding the Great Danes to just 28.3% shooting.
Manhattan should be greatly improved over the 11-win team from last year, as they brought back 85.3% of their minutes and 10 different guys who started at least 1 game. One thing that killed last year was turnovers and that was a direct result of their lack of experience at the guard position.
More than anything, I think this Jaspers defense is built to win on the road with how they defend the ball. The offense hasn't been great, but they are due to shoot the ball well. Samford's defense isn't great and have already allowed 90+ on two occasions.
Samford likes to play fast and that's another plus for Manhattan. Jaspers are 42-20 ATS last 62 vs up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots/game. Jaspers are also 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 55 or less and 20-8 last 28 after a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Take Manhattan!
|11-19-19||College of Charleston v. Marshall||76-66||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on College of Charleston PK -104
Marshall is a team I feel is worth fading early on. Thundering Herd won 23 games last year and did so averaging an impressive 80.5 ppg (28th in the country). They just don't have the offensive fire-power this year having lost two prolific scorers in Jon Elmore (20.3 ppg) and C.J. Burks (17.7 ppg).
Thru their first 3 games the Herd are averaging just 67 ppg with 70 being their highest output of the season. Marshall did cover last time out at Notre Dame as a 19-point dog, but they also failed to cover their first two against Robert Morris and Toledo, both at home.
Charleston is the team to beat in the Colonial this year and are primed for a bounce back after an ugly game against Oklahoma State, where they couldn't make a thing (32.7%) and the Cowboys couldn't miss (51.9%).
Marshall is just 3-12 ATS last 15 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons when listed anywhere from +3 to -3. Cougars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from C-USA and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 in a row. Take Charleston!
|11-18-19||SIU-Edwardsville +15.5 v. South Dakota||56-71||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville +15½ -109
Big time value here with the Cougars as a big road dog against the Coyotes. South Dakota State has started out 4-0 with a 3-1 ATS mark. I feel it has them laying way too big a number here against a SIU Edwardsville team that has shown they can compete against some good teams.
This reminds me a lot of South Dakota's home game against Florida A&M, where they were being asked to lay 17.5 and ended up squeaking out a 3-point victory.
Cougars are an experienced team with 4 starters back and added twins Lamar and Shamar Wright, who's dad, Lorenzo Wright, played in the NBA. Those two should only get better the more they get into the flow of things. Overall SIU is a very balanced team with 6 different guys averaging 7 or more ppg. Take SIU Edwardsville!
|11-18-19||Middle Tennessee +3 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||72-93||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee +3 -110
No way should the Blue Raiders be getting points here against the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has already dropped games at home to Campbell and Northern Kentucky. Middle Tennessee has started out 3-0, which includes a win at Lipscomb.
I'm expecting big improvements out of the Blue Raiders in year two under head coach Nick McDevitt. He really turned UNC Asheville into a power and finished up 40-14 in his last 3 years.
The Chanticleers most recent game was that home defeat to the Norsemen. Coastal Carolina is just 4-12 ATS last 16 off a home loss and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home overall. Blue Raiders have covered 5 of 7 against a team from the Sun Belt and are 9-3 ATS last 12 overall, including a 5-2 ATS mark in their last 7 on the road. Take Middle Tennessee!
|11-17-19||Wake Forest v. Charlotte +4||65-67||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Charlotte +4 -110
I like the 49ers to cover the small number at home against the Demon Deacons. Everyone keeps waiting for Danny Manning to work his magic in Winston-Salem, but it's just not happening. Wake has won just 11-games each of the last two years, both times going a mere 4-14 in ACC play.
They would of had a chance to be decent had freshmen Jaylen Hoard stuck around, but he left early for the NBA. I get Charlotte isn't the best program, but we saw the Demon Deacons already barely beat Columbia at home 65-63.
Wake did win last time out against UNC-Asheville, but are just 5-13 ATS last 18 off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road. Take Charlotte!
|11-17-19||UCF v. Illinois State -1.5||67-65||Loss||-110||3 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Illinois State -1½ -110
I got no problem laying the short number at home with the RedBirds in Sunday's game against UCF. I just think the Knights are in some trouble this season. UCF had a dream season last year, winning 24-games and coming up just short of upsetting Duke and advancing to the Sweet 16.
The Knights lost every key player from that team and it's going to be a struggle for them to come anywhere close to what they were. They just lost at home by 9 to Miami as a 3-point dog and I look for them to struggle in their first true road game of the season.
Redbirds have thrived in this spot, going 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Illinois State!
|11-17-19||Marquette v. Wisconsin -1||61-77||Win||100||2 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Wisconsin -1 -105
The Badgers are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. Just feel like like Marquette is getting a little too much love here off a 10-point home win against Purdue.
Golden Eagles had a chance to be special this year until Sam and Joey Hauser decided to transfer. Now it's just the Markus Howard show and while he's great, it's hard to be a one-man show and win on the road against a team like Wisconsin that really gets after you defensively. You can bet the Badgers are going to really focus on Howard and make the other guys beat them.
Wisconsin comes in off a 83-63 blowout win at home over McNeese State and are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home off a home win by 20 or more points. Marquette on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take Wisconsin!
|11-16-19||St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -7.5||80-74||Loss||-105||19 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Saturday Night CASH COW on Rutgers -7½ -105
The Scarlet Knights have started out 3-0 and I look for them to have no problem covering the number in Saturday's neutral site showdown with St. Bonaventure. Rutgers is a program on the rise and many fans are calling for their first winning season in over a decade.
The Bonnies are off to a 0-3 start having lost at home to Ohio and Vermont and most recently losing at Siena as a 1-point favorite. Offense has been a big problem for St. Bonaventure. They are averaging just 59.0 ppg and have yet to shoot better than 38% from the field in any game.
Now they must face a Rutgers defense that is only giving up 55.7 ppg, holding teams almost 15 points under their season average. St Bonaventure is 1-9 ATS last 10 games when facing a team that's holding teams under 42% shooting and the Scarlet Knights are 13-3 ATS last 16 away from home against teams who are averaging 64 or fewer points/game. Take Rutgers!
|11-16-19||Louisiana Tech +10 v. Creighton||Top||72-82||Push||0||17 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Louisiana Tech +10 -105
This is just too many points for Louisiana Tech to be catching on the road against the Blue Jays. The Bulldogs have started out 2-0 with two blowout wins. They won at Texas A&M CC 82-49 as a mere 8-point favorite and followed that up with a 98-52 victory against Wiley College. Note that Texas A&M CC nearly went on the road an upset Vanderbilt, losing by a final score of 71-66.
As for Creighton, they are coming off a 79-69 loss at Michigan, where they let the Wolverines shoot 57% from the field and now face a LA Tech team that has hit 50% from the field in each of their first two games. I just don't see the Blue Jays being able to pull away and winning by double-digit. In fact, I give the Bulldogs a legit shot at winning this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech!
|11-16-19||Eastern Michigan +9 v. North Texas||56-51||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - E Michigan/N Texas ATS WINNER on Eastern Michigan +9 -110
The Eagles are worth a look as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Mean Green. Eastern Michigan hasn't played the stiffest of competition over their 3-0 start, but they have dominated all 3 games and will be playing with a ton of confidence in this one.
North Texas is coming off two really tough road games, as they were at VCU last Friday (lost a heartbreaker 59-56) and at Arkansas on Tuesday (lost by 23). Both games the offense really struggled, as they shot just 40% against the Rams and 33% against the Razorbacks.
Mean Green are just 19-35 ATS last 54 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 18-36 last 54 in non-conference home games and 5-16 ATS last 21 at home off a loss by 20 or more. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-16-19||Austin Peay +9 v. Tulsa||65-72||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Austin Peay/Tulsa ATS WINNER on Austin Peay +9 -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Governors against the Golden Hurricane. Austin Peay comes in off a 22-point loss at Western Kentucky, but that's a really good Hilltoppers team who lost just 1 starter from a 20-win team and is expected to win C-USA this year.
Tulsa has started out 2-1, but there two wins have come by single-digits against the likes of Houston Baptist and Oral Roberts. They also lost by 14 on the road to Texas Arlington. Golden Hurricanes have a history of exceeding expectations under Frank Haith, but I don't think that's going to be the case this year. Take Austin Peay!