|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-27-16||Cavs -6 v. Raptors||Top||113-87||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavaliers -
As expected, the Cleveland returned home and laid an absolute beating on the Raptors in Game 5. While it won't be as easy on the road in Game 6, I'm confident the Cavaliers will go into Toronto and finish off the series.
Cleveland didn't give the Raptors the respect they deserved in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, but they aren't going to make that same mistake here. All the confidence that the Raptors got in those two wins is completely gone after what happened in Game 5. The Cavaliers are simply the better team and as long as they come out with that killer instinct, Toronto has no chance of winning or keeping it close.
Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game and home dogs revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less against an opponent off a home win by 20+ points are just 46-83 ATS since 1996. Take Cleveland!
|05-26-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7.5||Top||111-120||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
It's hard to believe that the series is headed back to Golden State with the Warriors trailing 3-1, but I'm not about to give up on the Warriors just yet. After losing Game 1 at home and facing a must win in Game 2, Golden State laid a 27-point beating on the Thunder.
With their season on the line, and the Thunder knowing they get Game 6 at home, I look for the Warriors to dominate Game 5. It's just going to be near impossible for OKC to come out and match the intensity of Golden State in this one. The Warriors should also be able to get their offense going at home.
Warriors are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 when revenging an upset loss as favorite and 31-15 ATS in their last 46 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Golden State!
|05-24-16||Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder||Top||94-118||Loss||-106||11 h 37 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -
As good as OKC looked in Game 3 at home, I think the value here is with the Warriors as a small road favorite in Game 4. Down 1-2, Golden State really can't afford to lose this game and I believe this team will come out looking more like the team that dominated Game 2.
The Warriors simply didn't bring the defensive intensity in Game 3 and were just unable to recover from the haymaker the Thunder landed in the 2nd quarter. Oklahoma City also caught fire on the offensive end, shooting 50% from the field. I look for Golden State's defense to be the difference in this one, as Curry, Thompson and Green will deliver enough offensively to secure the win.
Thunder are just 9-18 in their last 27 after scoring 60+ points at the half of their previous game, while the Warriors are 19-6 in their last 25 off loss by 10 or more as a road favorite. Take Golden State!
|05-23-16||Cavs -6 v. Raptors||Top||99-105||Loss||-105||10 h 26 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Cavs -
The Cavaliers got embarrassed in Game 3 at Toronto, losing 84-99 for their first loss of the postseason. Not a huge surprise, as Cleveland was due for a letdown and that was a must-win game for the Raptors. Unfortunately for Toronto I don't see that carrying over to Game 4.
Cleveland is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how they played on Saturday and should have no problem winning here by more than 6-points. The Cavaliers won the first two games in the series by a combined 50 points. There's simply too big a gap between these two teams, as the Cavs are clearly the best the East has to offer.
Raptors are just 1-6 in their last 7 after a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a cover. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 after failing to cover their previous game and have not failed to cover in back-to-back games in the playoffs this season. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-22-16||Warriors v. Thunder +3.5||Top||105-133||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +
Golden State bounced back in a big way to take Game 2 after blowing a double-digit halftime lead in Game 1. The public is going to be on the Warriors at this line, but I think the value here is with OKC.
The Thunder are a dominant home team and have proven they can not only hang with Golden State but are capable of beating them. I look for an all out effort here from the Thunder in Game 3, as they know they have to keep home court if they want any chance of winning this series.
Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Thunder are also 31-10-2 ATS in their last 43 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take OKC!
|05-21-16||Cavs v. Raptors +6.5||Top||84-99||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors +
It's been about as bad as it could be for Toronto in the first 2 games of this series. While everyone knows this series is all but a formality, I still expect the Raptors to come out and play extremely hard on their home court. I believe this is the one game that Toronto has a better than normal chance of winning. Cleveland is on cruise control and do not feel threatened at all by this team. If there's a game the Cavaliers are going to let their guard down, it's this one.
The good news is we don't need Toronto to win the game to cash our ticket. The Raptors just have to keep it respectable, something they are definitely capable of. They have hung with Cleveland early in both games, but Lowry being a non-factor has been too much to overcome. I look for him to at least show up and provide something in Game 3.
Let's also not forget the oddsmakers know the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with Toronto right now. I'm confident they set this line where they like the Raptors chances of covering. Keep in mind after the Cavs won both games at home against the Hawks by double-digits, they were only a 2-point favorite in game 3.
Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Toronto!
|05-19-16||Raptors +12 v. Cavs||Top||89-108||Loss||-105||11 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Raptors +
Toronto was no match for Cleveland in Game 1 and I was all over the Cavaliers laying the big number in the series opener. Now I'm banking not he Raptors to bounce back in a big way and make a game of it in Game 2. Toronto basically took Game 1 off, as they just didn't have the energy to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors just got done playing a grueling 7-game series agains the Heat, while Cleveland hadn't played in 8 days.
Toronto simply can't be as bad offensively as they were in Game 1. The Raptors had just 3 players finish in double-figures with DeRozan leading the way with just 18. Lowry was a complete non factor, scoring just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting, while Carrol only had 2 points. I expect this trio to have a much better showing in Game 2. I also don't expect the Cavaliers to repeat their 55% effort from the field in Game 1. As well as Cleveland has been playing, that's only the second time this postseason they have shot 50% or better. It's also the first time Toronto has allowed an opponent to eclipse that mark in the playoffs.
Cleveland has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and are simply overvalued because of it. Keep in mind the Cavaliers are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and even with the loss in Game 1 are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the Raptors!
|05-16-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7.5||Top||108-102||Loss||-102||11 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
This might seem like a lot of points for the Warriors to be laying against a Thunder team that just closed out their series against the Spurs with 3 straight wins, including a 113-99 blowout win to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals. At the same time, Golden State didn't dominate the Blazers like many expected, especially once Curry returned to action, as they trailed by double-digits in the majority of the games at the half.
The key thing to keep in mind is that Portland had the ability to play small and matchup with the Warriors, something I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of doing. At the same time, the Thunder really took advantage of a aging Spurs team, who really struggled when forced to play on more than 1-day of rest. The Thunder aren't going to be able to use that up-tempo in their favor here against the Warriors, who thrive in a fast pace.
Let's also not forget Golden State swept the season series 3-0 and won both home games in the season series by at least 8 points. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-4 in their last 15 ATS when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Golden State!
|05-15-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||89-116||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors -
I've cashed in on each of the last 4 games in this series after successfully backing Miami in Game 6 at home. This time it's the Raptors who are showing the value, as they have the big advantage playing Game 7 at home. If you have followed the NBA Playoffs over the years, you know that the home team has dominated Game 7.
I was actually surprised that the Heat were able to win Game 6 with DeRozan and Lowry combining for 59 points. The exact same amount the duo put up in Toronto's 99-91 win at home in Game 5. The good news is, these two are finally starting to play up to their potential and now the Raptors should get more out of their role players on their home floor. Toronto should also perform better on the defense side of the floor, as they will feed off the energy of the home crowd.
The Heat are just 3-13 ATS in their last 19 when they come into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Toronto!
|05-13-16||Raptors v. Heat -4||Top||91-103||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
I have successfully cashed each of my last 3 picks in this series and I'm confident we will make it 4 for 4 with the Heat tonight. Miami nearly erased an early double-digit deficit in Game 5 and I just don't trust the Raptors in a close out situation. It's a spot that Toronto has not fared well in the past. On the other side, Miami has one of the best closers in the game in Wade and will be playing at home in a do or die situation.
The other big positive here is the Raptors finally got a solid performance from both Lowry and DeRozan in the same game. The two combined for 59 points on 20 of 47 shooting. That almost wasn't enough on their home floor and I'm willing to bet the duo doesn't play as well on the road in Game 5.
The Heat are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 after playing their previous game as a dog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home and the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Miami!
|05-11-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||91-99||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
I really like the Raptors here in Game 5 at home. Toronto shot just 39.3% from the field in Game 4 and took Miami to overtime. Miami on the other hand shot 45% and needed 30 points from Wade to secure the win. I know the Raptors didn't take full advantage of Whiteside's absence in Game 4, but I look for that to change at home.
The fact that Lowry and DeRozan were a combined 6 of 28 from the field on the road and the Raptors still almost won the game, tells me that Toronto is the far better team when these two play close to their potential. The loss of Whiteside makes it hard for Miami to get easy looks inside and they aren't a great 3-point shooting team, forcing them to take a lot of contested 2-point jump shots. His absence will be felt even more on the road, as I look for Toronto to win here comfortably. Take the Raptors!
|05-10-16||Thunder v. Spurs -7||Top||95-91||Loss||-106||9 h 15 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs -
This might seem like a big number to lay on the Spurs in Game 5, but my money is on San Antonio not only winning the game but doing so in impressive fashion. The Spurs didn't play great in either game at OKC, but still managed to get a split. They now return home, where they have lost twice all season. I know one of those was against the Thunder in Game 2, but I believe that makes even less likely they lose in Game 5.
You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they were basically in a do or die situation needing to win Game 4 to keep any hope of winning the series alive.
Spurs are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 when tied in a playoff series and 19-9 in their last 28 when revenging a home loss. We also see that home teams favored by 7 or more with a series tied 2-2 are 11-4 ATS dating back to 2015. Take San Antonio!
|05-09-16||Raptors v. Heat -5.5||Top||87-94||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
Miami is showing great value here at home in a must-win Game 4. The Heat opened the series with a win in Toronto, but lost in overtime in Game 2 and then dropped the first matchup on their home floor in Game 3.
The big news going into Game 4 is both teams will be without their big men inside. Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas is done for the series and Miami's Hassan Whiteside is doubtful with a knee injury. I believe Miami is more equipped to play well without their big men, especially on their home floor. Valanciunas has arguably been the Raptors most consistent player in the postseason and he's certainly played a big role in Toronto's 2-1 series lead. The Raptors were +41 with him on the floor in the first 3 games and -39 when he was on the bench.
Motivation is also heavily in Miami's favor here. The Heat absolutely have to win this game, while the Raptors are poised for a letdown after regaining home court. I see a very similar scenario to Game 4 in Toronto's opening series against the Pacers. After losing Game 1 at home, the Raptors won both Game 2 and Game 3 before getting embarrassed by 17 in Game 4 at Indiana. Take Toronto!
|05-07-16||Raptors +5.5 v. Heat||Top||95-91||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors +
*Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly*
|05-06-16||Spurs -2 v. Thunder||Top||100-96||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs -
My money is one the Spurs as a small road favorite in Game 3. San Antonio shockingly lost Game 2 at home after embarrassing the Thunder by 32 points in Game 1. Winning on the road at OKC is no easy task for most teams, but I'm confident the Spurs will rebound with one of their best performances after how poorly they played in Game 2.
Keep in mind that the Thunder shot 48% from the field, while the Spurs connected on just 42.6% of their attempts and San Antonio still nearly won the game. The Spurs missed a lot of easy shots around the basket early in that game and that's simply not going to happen again. At the same time, the Thunder rely too much on Durant and Westbrook. If either of those two have an off game, this one will get ugly in a hurry. The two combined for 57 in Game 2 and still almost lost.
The Spurs are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 when tied in a playoff series, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 3 points or less and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 o more points. Take San Antonio!
|05-05-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||92-96||Loss||-100||10 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Month on Raptors -
Just like they did in their opening series against the Pacers, I look for Toronto to bounce back from a Game 1 loss at home with a convincing win in Game 2. The Raptors lost 90-100 in Game 1 against Indiana, only to respond with a 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto has not lost consecutive games in the postseason to this point and I don't expect that to change.
This is also a big letdown game for Miami. The Heat pulled off a overtime win in Game 1, getting the split in Toronto that they desperately wanted. Prior to that they laid it all on the line in a Game 7 against the Hornets. We have seen the Heat lay a couple eggs on the road against Charlotte and I'm expecting far from their best effort tonight.
Miami is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 11-24 in their last 35 off a road win. The Heat are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Take Toronto!
|05-04-16||Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs||Top||98-123||Loss||-103||10 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks +
The Hawks are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. Atlanta fell behind big early in Game 1, but were able to rally to take the lead in the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away for a 11-point win.
I believe the Hawks figured something out in the 2nd half and will be able to carry that over to Game 2 tonight. We also can count on a max effort here from Atlanta, as they try to avoid going down 0-2 in the series. Cleveland is due for a letdown in the postseason, as they have now won 5 straight after sweeping the Pistons.
Hawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging 2 straight losses where they allowed 100+ points, while the Cavaliers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after a win by 10+ points and 10-19 ATS in their last 29 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take Atlanta!
|05-03-16||Blazers +10.5 v. Warriors||Top||99-110||Loss||-115||12 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Blazers +
I like the value we are getting with Portland as a double-digit road dog against the Warriors in Game 2. The Blazers failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog in Game 1, losing by 12. Portland looked shell-shocked in the 1st quarter of that game, getting outscored by 20 points (17-37). After the opening quarter the Blazers actually outscored the Warriors by 8 points.
With their backs against the wall and Golden State potentially poised for a letdown with the potential return of Steph Curry for Game 3, I look for Portland to give the Warriors all they can handle in Game 2. While it's unlikely the Blazers can pull off the upset, it's not out of the question. Just look at the turnaround the Thunder had in Game 2 at San Antonio after getting embarrassed by 30-points in Game 1.
Portland is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 10 points and we have a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Warriors in this spot. Home favorites who have won more than 75% of their games are just 15-41 (27%) ATS when leading in a playoff series against a team with a winning record. Take the Blazers!
|05-01-16||Pacers v. Raptors -5.5||Top||84-89||Loss||-105||10 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
Indiana was able to avoid elimination with a 101-83 win at home in Game 5, but I don't think there fortunes will carry over to Game 7. Home court in Game 7 has proven to be a huge advantage over the years, especially when that team is coming off a loss.
Going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS in Game 7 after losing the previous game. It's also worth noting that each time Indiana has managed to pull out a win the Raptors have answered with a victory in the next game.
Indiana on the other hand is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. The Pacers are also 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after 5 straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or worse from the field. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100+ points. Take the Raptors!
|04-30-16||Thunder v. Spurs -6.5||Top||92-124||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Spurs -
San Antonio and Oklahoma City both made easy work of their opponents in the first round. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies while the Thunder needed just 5 games to send Dallas packing. I believe that has kept this spread low enough that it's worth laying the points with San Antonio at home.
The Spurs finished a dominant 40-1 on their home floor during the regular season and added two more victories against Memphis. Both coming via huge blowouts. San Antonio beat the Grizzlies by 32 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. The Spurs understand the importance of getting a series started off with a win and protecting their home court advantage and I look for them to do just that against the Thunder.
Oklahoma City was able to get away with their style of play against the Mavericks, relying almost exclusively on Durant and Westbrook to carry the load offensively. That's not going to work against the Spurs, who are playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio also has the weapons to pick apart the Thunder's defense. I believe it will take a near perfect performance from OKC's two stars just to keep this game close.
Thunder are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games in Game 1 of a playoff series as a dog. Spurs are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 19-5 ATS in their last 24 during Game 1 of a playoff series after closing out their previous series with 2 or more consecutive wins. Take San Antonio!
|04-28-16||Hawks -2 v. Celtics||Top||104-92||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks -
The home team has won all 5 games to this point, but I expect that trend to come to an end in Game 6 at Boston. Atlanta laid it on the Celtics in a 110-83 home win in Game 5 and the Hawks can smell blood with a 3-2 series lead.
Atlanta has clearly been the more impressive team to this point. They have had at least a 15 point lead in 4 of the 5 games, including a 16-point lead in Game 4 at Boston, which they ended up losing in overtime. The key here is the health of the Celtics, who are without Avery Bradley, arguably their best two-way player. Now they have to lay with a less than 100% Isaiah Thomas, who re-aggravated a sprained left ankle in the 4th quarter of Game 4.
Home underdogs that are revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points against an opponent off a win by 20 or more are just 46-82 (36%) ATS since 1996. Hawks as a team are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 off a home win by 10 or more points and the Celtics are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing 2 straight as a dog. Take Atlanta!
|04-27-16||Hornets v. Heat -6||Top||90-88||Loss||-105||10 h 20 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
The Heat and Hornets head to Game 5 in Miami with the series tied 2-2. The Hornets made this a series by taking both Games 3 and 4 at home, but are now headed back to Miami where they got destroyed in the first two games of the series. The Heat won 123-91 in Game 1 and 115-103 in Game 2.
Just watching this series you can see just how much better both of these teams play on their home floor. The fact that Miami is a bigger favorite in Game 5 than they were in either Game 1 or Game 2 after losing the last two really speaks volumes to that. This is also a big letdown spot for Hornets, as they put everything they had on the line at home to even up the series. I see this is a very similar scenario to last night's Game 5 between the Hawks and Celtics.
Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after a loss by 6 points or less, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the Heat!
|04-26-16||Celtics v. Hawks -7||Top||83-110||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf Playoffs Game of the Month on Hawks -
The home team has won all 4 meetings in the series to this point and I don't expect that trend to come to an end in Game 5 in Atlanta on Tuesday. While the series is tied 2-2, I've been much more impressed with the Hawks to this point. In both games in Atlanta, the Hawks jumped out early leads. After letting Boston back in Game 1, they kept their foot on the gas in Game 2 with a 17-point victory.
Another key factor to keep in mind is that the Celtics used up a lot of energy in winning both of those games at home and are now primed for a letdown in Game 5. Let's also not forget that Boston is still without a huge piece to the puzzle in Avery Bradley.
It's also important to note that while Atlanta lost both games on the road, they could have easily won either of those games. The big problem for them was their 3-point shooting. They were just 25% from long distance in Game 3 and 28% in Game 4. I look for the outside shot to fall at a much higher frequency at home.
Boston is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Atlanta on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take the Hawks!
|04-25-16||Mavs +14.5 v. Thunder||Top||104-118||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Mavericks +
Dallas is showing great value here as a near 15-point underdog in Game 5 against the Thunder. While it's unlikely the Mavericks will pull off another huge upset in OKC (won 85-84 as 14-point dog in Game 2), I expect them to keep this game much closer than the number listed.
Oklahoma City just won both games in Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 series lead and could let their guard down here. At the same time, we can expect an all out effort from the Mavericks, as they try to fight off elimination. Getting 2-days off prior to this game is huge for Dallas, who lacks depth with all their injuries and it also gives head coach Rick Carlisle time to make some adjustments, something he's well known for in the postseason.
Mavericks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 2 straight as a home dog, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas!
|04-23-16||Heat v. Hornets -2||Top||80-96||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hornets -
The Hornets season is on the line when they take on the Heat in Game 3 at home. Charlotte lost both games in Miami and simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series.
The Heat couldn't have played any better than they did in the first two games of the series at home, but were not nearly as strong on the road during the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand went a very respectable 30-11 at home.
Miami is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after winning 4 of their previous 5 games and 9-20 in their last 29 after covering the spread in 2 straight. The Hornets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 revenging a road loss, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Charlotte -2!
|04-21-16||Raptors -1 v. Pacers||Top||101-85||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
The Raptors are showing great value here as at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3 of their series against the Pacers. Indiana is getting a lot of respect for winning Game 1 on the road by 10-points, but I just don't see the Pacers making this a series going forward. Toronto is going to come out with a huge sense of urgency to get back home court advantage.
Winning on the road wasn't a problem for the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto went 24-17 away from home, which was nearly as good as the Pacers home record of 26-15. In the first two games Indiana has got a near flawless performance from Paul George, while the Raptors haven't got near the production they expect from their backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry. I look for those two to breakout of their slump and Toronto to continue to their dominance inside. The Raptors have outscored the Pacers 88-56 in the paint and out rebounded them 96-71. Take Toronto!
|04-18-16||Pacers v. Raptors -7||Top||87-98||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
The key in the NBA playoffs is to not overreact to what happened in the previous game. Toronto lost at home in Game 1 by double-digits (90-100) as a 7-point favorite, which is going to have a lot of people looking to take Indiana in Game 2. I'm looking the other direction here, as the Raptors are going lay it all on the line to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series.
It's also important to note that this play falls in a profitable NBA playoffs zig-zag system, which has us backing home teams off a home loss, who won more than 60% of their games and lost by more than 3-points in the previous matchups. Teams in this spot who are favored by 6 to 9 points are 47-26-2 (64.4%) ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2002.
We also see that the Pacers are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off a upset win as a road dog, while the Raptors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto!
|04-17-16||Pistons +11 v. Cavs||Top||101-106||Win||100||6 h 34 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Pistons +
Detroit is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers in their series opener. The Pistons played Cleveland tough during the regular season. They won 3 of the 4 meetings and the lone loss came by just 8 points. I'm not expecting Detroit to win this game, but I do think they are going to be able to keep it well within the number posted.
The Pistons are simply built well to take on a team like the Cleveland, as they have the inside presence with Drummond to keep James from repeatedly attacking the rim for easy baskets. The Pistons also have the balance offensively to give the Cavaliers trouble on the defensive side of the ball.
Cleveland went just 4-12 ATS against division opponents this season, winning by an average of just 2.2 ppg. Detroit on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. Take the Pistons!
|04-16-16||Celtics v. Hawks -5.5||Top||101-102||Loss||-105||25 h 14 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Vegas Insider on Hawks -
I really like the value here with the Hawks laying a very reasonable number at home against the Celtics. Atlanta really came on strong at the end of the year and I look for that momentum to carry over into the postseason. Boston is a quality team, but are not a great road team and playing away from home in the playoffs is no easy task.
Another big key here for me is playoff experience and Atlanta clearly has the edge in that department after advancing to the conference finals a year ago. The Hawks are also playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, especially after the All-Star break. You here a lot about the Spurs and how good they are on defense. The Hawks had the best defense efficiency rating after the break in the league at 96.8 with San Antonio second at 99.3.
Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also important to note that the Hawks were just 2-6 ATS in their final 8 games, which is helping the number here. The key is that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Atlanta!
|04-12-16||Grizzlies +7.5 v. Clippers||Top||84-110||Loss||-105||13 h 37 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Grizzlies +
The Grizzlies are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Clippers. Memphis is still fighting for playoff position, while Los Angeles is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies currently sit in sixth, 1/2-game back of Portland, but are also just 1/2-game ahead of seventh place Dallas. Avoiding the bottom two spots would keep them from having to play the Spurs in the first round.
The Clippers aren't going to come out and say it, but you have to believe LA would rather face Memphis in the first round than the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies don't figure to be much of a threat in the postseason, as they have lost both Conley and Gasol for the rest of the season. The Clippers also have no reason to be motivated for this game and their focus now is on getting as healthy as possible for the playoffs.
Grizzlies are 23-13 ATS off a SU loss this season, while the Clippers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after making 50% or more of their 3-point shots in their previous game. Take Memphis!
|04-11-16||Mavs v. Jazz -5.5||Top||101-92||Loss||-105||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas ATS No Brainer on Jazz -
The Jazz are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Mavericks tonight. While both teams are still fighting to secure one of the final two playoff spots in the west. Dallas currently sits in 7th place, 1-game ahead of the Jazz in 8th and 2-games in front of the Rockets in 9th.
I look for the Jazz to be the more motivated team at home in this one, as the Mavericks have some breathing room and get to host the Spurs in their finale, which will likely have San Antonio resting most of their star players. You also have to factor in that Dallas could be without both Barea and Williams, as they are both listed as questionable.
Utah is also the fresher team here. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 6 days for the Jazz, while the Mavericks will be playing their 3rd in the last 4 days and 2nd of a back-to-back road set. Jazz are 16-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and it's worth noting they won the previous meeting 121-119 in Dallas, as the Mavericks are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Take the Jazz!
|04-09-16||Suns -1.5 v. Pelicans||Top||121-100||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
5* No Limit NBA Top Play on Suns -
Phoenix is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Pelicans. The public will be inclined to back the Pelicans at home, as the Suns aren't exactly a team most feel comfortable laying points with on the road. However, the situation here heavily favors Phoenix, which is why the books have them listed as the favorite.
New Orleans has basically lost everyone who they expected to play a major role this year to some kind of injury. The reserves and free agent signings have continued to play hard down the stretch, but this is one spot where I don't see the Pelicans being interested at all. New Orleans will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall. They won last night in LA 110-102, which adds to the likelihood of a letdown here against a bad team like Phoenix. Take the Suns!
|04-08-16||Grizzlies +6.5 v. Mavs||Top||93-103||Loss||-110||10 h 1 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies +
Memphis is showing great value here in what's an important game for both teams. While the Grizzlies have secured a playoff spot, they are still fighting for positioning. Right now Memphis is tied with Portland for 5th, which would have them playing the Clippers in the first round. If they end up 6-8 they will have to play either the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors.
Dallas has won 5 straight to put them in a great position to make the playoffs, as they are 1-game ahead of 8th place Utah and 2.5 ahead of 9th place Houston. The recent run has been impressive, but I believe it has them overvalued here. Dallas has had to play at a much slower pace since losing Parsons and Williams, which I think plays into the strength of the Grizzlies. It also makes the 6.5-points that much more valuable, as this doesn't figure to be a high-scoring game.
Memphis is 27-7 ATS in their last 34 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog and are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games off an upset win as a home dog. Take Memphis +6.5!
|04-07-16||Wolves v. Kings -4.5||Top||105-97||Loss||-105||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Kings -
Sacramento is actually showing great value here as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. This is the ultimate letdown spot for Minnesota, as they pulled off a huge upset in Tuesday's 124-117 overtime win at Golden State, where they overcame a 17-point deficit. There's just no way the Timberwolves are able to come close in bringing that same kind of energy here on the road against the Kings.
Sacramento has been hit or miss of late but I look for them to come out motivated here off a loss at home last time out. The Kings also should have plenty of motivation to avoid getting swept by Minnesota in the season series. If the Timberwolves come out flat, this game could get way out of hand early. Lay the Points!
|04-06-16||Rockets v. Mavs +2||Top||86-88||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Mavs +
Dallas is showing great value here as a home dog against the Rockets. In fact, my numbers suggest that the Mavericks should be the ones playing points. Dallas comes into this game having won 4 straight, but just aren't getting the respect they deserve due to the fact that they are dealing with injuries. Clearly the books are overreacting, as the Mavericks have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
Houston has been inconsistent all season and that's been the case of late. The Rockets are just 3-5 over their last 8, but are getting some love here after beating the Thunder 118-110 as a 3.5-point road dog. Key thing to keep in mind is OKC has nothing to play for right now (all but locked into the No.3 seed).
This is basically a playoff game for these two teams and with that I give a big edge to the home team. Dallas currently sits 1/2-game ahead of 8th place Utah, but are just 1-game ahead of 9th place Houston. A win here could push the Mavericks 2-games up on the Rockets with just 4 to play. Take Dallas!
|04-03-16||Pacers -4 v. Knicks||Top||92-87||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pacers -
The Pacers are showing great value here as a mere 4-point favorite against the Knicks. Indiana comes into this game off an easy 115-102 win at Philadelphia yesterday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy win today. The Pacers can't afford to lose to a team like New York right now, as they are sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the east, just two games up on the Bulls.
New York comes into this game off an impressive 105-91 win at home against the Nets without Porzingis, which is definitely keeping this line low. What gets overlooked is the big advantage the Knicks had in that game with the Nets playing their 4th game in 5 days and fresh off a game the night before against the Cavaliers. Brooklyn simply didn't show up to play.
There's simply not enough talent on the roster for the Knicks to compete with a motivated Pacers team without Porzingis. They also are without point guard Jose Calderon. New York is a mere 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing their previous game at home. Lay the points!
|04-01-16||Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||99-95||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +
Memphis is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Raptors. The Grizzlies are simply being undervalued due to having lost 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but injuries have played a big part in that. Toronto also comes in off a big 105-97 home win and are perceived to be the much better team.
While the Raptors are the better team, I don't see them being all that interested in this matchup. Toronto has made it clear that they aren't concerned about catching Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the east and in the back of their minds, I believe they know their chances of Cleveland slipping are slim. That doesn't leave a whole lot to play for, as they are 6-games up on 3rd place Atlanta. Having just secured their 50th win of the season at home and a huge game against the Spurs on deck tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if rest was the primary focus in this one. Either key players sitting or playing limited minutes.
With Memphis they just got back Randolph and Tony Allen is healthy, giving them a formidable lineup, even with Gasol and Conley out. This game also means a lot more to the Grizzlies, who have made it clear they want the No. 5 seed. Right now they are just 1.5-games up on 6th place Portland. I expect a max effort here at home for Memphis.
Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the points!
|03-30-16||Suns v. Bucks -6.5||Top||94-105||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Bucks -
This might seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home, as the Bucks come into this game having lost 5 straight. However, those 5 losses have all come against quality opponents in the Jazz, Pistons, Cavaliers, Hawks and Hornets (3 of the 5 on the road).
I look for Milwaukee to come out extremely motivated and make easy work of the Suns. Keep in mind that despite their poor overall record, the Bucks are a respectable 21-15 at home this season. Phoenix on the other hand is just 7-30 on the road, where they are getting outscored on average by nearly 12.0 ppg.
The Suns are also a team that's more interested in tanking for a better chance at the top pick than finishing the season strong. I just don't see the effort being there on the road tonight. Phoenix just played on the road in Minnesota in their last game and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100+ points. They are also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games overall and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Lay the points!
|03-28-16||Thunder v. Raptors +2.5||Top||119-100||Loss||-103||9 h 40 m||Show|
5* Thunder/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +
The Raptors are showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Thunder. Toronto is a dominant 28-8 at home this season and simply put should not be getting points on their home floor. Oklahoma City has won 7 straight, but really don't have anything to gain in the standings, as they are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west.
Toronto on the other hand is just 2.5-games back of Cleveland for the top spot in the east. Either way I expect a max effort here from the Raptors against a top level opponent, especially knowing that they are underdogs on their home floor. I expect Toronto's defense to be the difference in this one. The Raptors are giving up just 98.1 ppg at home, while OKC is allowing a staggering 106.2 ppg on the road.
Thunder are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Raptors on the other hand are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the points!
|03-23-16||Mavs v. Blazers -6||Top||103-109||Push||0||11 h 9 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Blazers -
The Trail Blazers are showing great value here at home against the Mavericks. These two teams just played in Dallas on Sunday, which the Mavericks won 132-120 in overtime. It's extremely difficult beating the same team in consecutive games, especially when that next meeting is on the road.
I look for Portland to come out with one of their best efforts of the season tonight and put away the Mavericks early. Even with the win over the Blazers, Dallas is just 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Things don't figure to get better now that they lost Chandler Parsons to a season-ending injury.
We are also catching Portland undervalue due to a brutal schedule they have had to deal with of late. The Blazers have played 11 of their last 13 on the road. There's no doubt in my mind they will be extremely motivated to get back on track at home. This is also a tough spot for the Mavericks, as they could find themselves looking ahead to Friday's road showdown against the Warriors.
Dallas is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games after covering the spread in their last contest and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against a team with a winning home record. Portland is 13-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after losing 3 of their last 4 and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Lay the points!
|03-22-16||Hornets v. Nets +6.5||Top||105-100||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +
Brooklyn is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hornets. Charlotte is in the ultimate letdown spot here, as they used every ounce of energy they had in last night's improbable win over the Spurs. The Hornets trailed 7-30 early in the 2nd quarter, but were able to rally for a 91-88 victory.
I just don't see Charlotte coming out with the kind of energy needed to turn this into a blowout. Not only are the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. It's also important to keep in mind that Charlotte is not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Hornets are just 13-19 on the road, compared to 27-11 at home.
Brooklyn isn't a great team by any means, but I expect the Nets to come out with some energy at home after getting the last 2 days off. The Nets will also be getting back Brook Lopez after he sat out the last game.
Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss by more than 10 points, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the points!
|03-21-16||Spurs v. Hornets +6||Top||88-91||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hornets +
Charlotte is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. This is simply a bad spot for San Antonio off that huge win at home against the Warriors. The Spurs invested everything they had in beating Golden State and are almost certainly going to suffer a letdown on the road against a Hornets team that is quietly playing their best basketball of the season.
Charlotte comes in off a 93-101 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 9-point favorite, which is definitely helping the value here. However, that lackluster performance against Denver, likely had a lot to do with them looking ahead to this game. The Hornets are 15-4 over their last 19 games and haven't lost back-to-back games when playing at home all season.
This is also a big revenge game for Charlotte, as they got embarrassed by 20-points at San Antonio earlier this season. Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Spurs are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the east. Take the points!
|03-14-16||Mavs +7 v. Hornets||Top||107-96||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Mavericks +
Dallas comes into this game having lost 5 straight and as a result we are getting great value on the Mavericks here as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. Charlotte on the other hand is overvalued due to winning 7 straight. Not to take anything away from the Hornets, but their 7-game winning streak has come against a favorable schedule and 6 of the 7 have come at home.
As poorly as the Mavericks have been playing of late, they are still tied for 7th in the west. With that said, Dallas can't continue to play this bad and I look for an all out effort here against Charlotte. The Hornets on the other hand are due for a letdown. Charlotte has allowed 100+ points in 5 straight an eventually that poor defensively will catch up to them.
Dallas is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Charlotte is just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. Take the points!
|03-12-16||Pelicans v. Bucks -5.5||Top||92-103||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks -
The Pelicans are no longer a threat to make the playoffs, as they are 8.5-games back of 8th place Dallas with just 18 games left on the schedule. They also have to pass 3 other teams ahead of them just to get to the Mavericks. This is a team that is going to struggle to play hard down the stretch, as they came into this season with the expectation of making the playoffs.
This is an especially difficult spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans lost in overtime last night at Memphis and will now be playing on no rest in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Four of the five starters played 40+ minutes and Ryan Anderson played 37 off the bench. Making it even harder to get up for this game is the fact that they have the Warriors on deck Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand comes in off a win at home over Miami and will be playing on 2 days of rest. Bucks are also a respectable 19-12 at home, while the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road.
New Orleans is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 120 or more points. Milwaukee is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing 2 of their last 3. Lay the points!
|03-07-16||Bucks v. Bulls -7||Top||90-100||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls -
Chicago finds themselves sitting tied with the Pistons for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls had really been struggling with injuries and as a result were just 3-9 in their previous 12 before knocking off the Rockets at home 108-100 on Saturday. That win over Houston marked the return of Jimmy Butler. With Chicago finally starting to get healthy and their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Bulls to go on a big run down the stretch.
Either way, this is a great spot to back Chicago at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee is not a great road team. The Bucks are just 8-25 away from home. Making matters worse, is the fact that Milwaukee will be playing on no rest after a big home game yesterday against the Thunder, which they lost 96-104. Five different players logged 30+ minutes, with Parker, Antetokounmpo and Middleton all playing 36 or more. I just don't see Milwaukee being able to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Bucks. Milwaukee is also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 60 or more in the 1st half of their last game. Lay the points!
|03-06-16||Mavs -3 v. Nuggets||Top||114-116||Loss||-115||7 h 30 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit *BEST BET* on Mavs -
The Mavericks are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Dallas has won 4 straight in the series and Denver is headed in the wrong direction. The Nuggets have lost 6 of their last 8, including an ugly home loss to the Nets last time out. Things don't figure to get better for Denver with Danilo Gallinari still sidelined and the Mavericks can't afford to lose this game in the playoff race.
This is also a big bounce back game for Dallas, as they come in off a 101-104 loss at home to the Kings as a 6.5-point favorite. Offensively the Mavericks have been lights out, scoring 100+ in 9 straight games. Denver has allowed 100+ in 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. The Nuggets come in giving up 106.5 ppg. With Dallas playing on 2 days rest, I just don't see Denver being able to make enough stops here to keep this game close.
Mavericks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games after 4 straight game where both teams scored 100+ points, 18-9 ATS in their last 27 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Denver is 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Lay the points!
|03-04-16||Wizards v. Cavs -8||Top||83-108||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational *BEST BET* on Cavs -
The Cavaliers are going to be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Wizards, who they just lost to at Washington by 14-points on Sunday. Keep in mind that win for the Wizards came with LeBron James sitting out due to rest. This is a statement game for the Cavaliers as they are just 2-3 in their last 5 overall.
We can count on a max effort here from Cleveland. Not only will the Cavaliers be motivated with revenge, but they come into this game having had the last 3 days off. Even more incentive is that this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Washington has won 4 straight and 7 of 9 overall, but 5 of those wins came at home and the two on the road were against the 76ers and Timberwolves. Wizards will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days, which is no easy task on the road.
Wizards are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 11-22 ATS in their last 33 off a road win. Washington is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Lay the points!
|03-02-16||Blazers v. Celtics -4.5||Top||93-116||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Celtics -
The Trail Blazers come into this game having won 3 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. Portland is also an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10. This might seem like a fair number to back the Blazers on the road against the Celtics, but this is a horrible spot for Portland. Not only will the Trail Blazers be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 days overall.
At the same time, it's not like Boston hasn't been playing well of late. The Celtics have won 3 straight and are 14-4 in their last 18. Boston has been especially good at home, where they have won 11 straight. The Celtics will simply be the much fresher team in this one. Boston had yesterday off and this will be their 4th straight at home.
Trail Blazers are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing 3 straight non-conference games and 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Boston is 12-3 ATS this season in games with a total of 210 or more, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 6-1 in their last 7 off 1 day of rest and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points!
|02-29-16||76ers +12.5 v. Wizards||Top||108-116||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on 76ers +
Philadelphia is showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Wizards. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this month. Washington won by 12-points at home as a 9-point favorite back on 2/5 and then by 9-points as a 7-point favorite at Philadelphia last Friday.
We are simply seeing an overreaction here based on how both teams performed yesterday. Washington beat the Cavaliers 113-99, while the 76ers lost 116-30 at Orlando. Even though the Wizards win over Cleveland came without LeBron James, they were emotionally invested in that game. I just don't see Washington being all that interested with this matchup against Philadelphia. Keep in mind that this is only the second time all season the Wizards have been favored by double-digits. The previous time was at home agains the Lakers, where they lost outright 104-108 as a 10-point favorite.
Wizards are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a win by more than 10-points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when facing an opponent who scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points and 0-3 ATS this season after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the points!
|02-26-16||Magic v. Knicks -1.5||Top||95-108||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Knicks -
New York is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Magic. The Knicks have lost 9 of their last 10 overall, but I believe there is a lot of fight left in this team. They certainly came to play last time out at Indiana, where they lost by just 3-points as a 6-point dog. I look for New York to come out extremely motivated at home tonight, as they desperately need a win to get this thing headed back in the right direction.
Luckily for the Knicks they catch the Magic in a tough spot. Orlando will be playing in the 2nd game of the a back-to-back set and are going to find it difficult to get excited about this matchup after laying it all on the line last night at home against the Warriors. A game they were competitive in up until late in the 4th quarter. Orlando also has to have some tired legs. Their last two games have seen combined scores of 239 and 244.
Magic are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 125 or more. Knicks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent (2 straight losses) and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 off a road loss by 3-points or less. Lay the points!
|02-24-16||Hornets v. Cavs -8||Top||103-114||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
5* NBA Hardwood No Brainer on Cavs -
The Cavaliers come into this game off an ugly 88-96 home loss to the Pistons as a 9-point favorite on Tuesday. It wasn't all that surprising to see Cleveland struggle in that game, as they really invested a lot the previous day in a 115-92 win at Oklahoma City. Regardless, it now has the Cavaliers poised for a huge bounce back performance at home against the Hornets.
Not only is Cleveland going to be motivated after what took place against Detroit last time out, but they will also be out to make a statement against Charlotte, who defeated them 106-97 earlier this month. Last time the Hornets visited Cleveland, the Cavaliers cruised to a 129-90 blowout win as a 10-point favorite. I look for a very similar type of outcome in this one, as Charlotte is just 10-17 on the road.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ rebounds/game are 152-101 (60%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Lay the points!
|02-21-16||Cavs v. Thunder -3||Top||115-92||Loss||-102||6 h 48 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Thunder NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder -
Oklahoma City comes into this game off a heartbreaking 98-101 home loss to the Pacers (I cashed my underdog GOM on Indiana +9 in that game). Now it has the Thunder in a prime bounce back spot at home against the surging Cavaliers, who have won 4 straight. That loss to the Pacers was only the 6th time all season OKC was defeated on their home floor, as they are 25-6.
The Thunder are simply not getting the respect they deserve in this game, in large part due to the Cavaliers riding that 4-game winning streak and having won 9 of their last 11 overall. The key thing to keep in mind, is that all but 2 of those wins came at home, where Cleveland is 23-4.
Cavaliers are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing their previous game at home and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after scoring 105+ points in 3 straight games. Thunder are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 off a loss by 3 points or less and 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Oklahoma City!
|02-19-16||Pacers +9 v. Thunder||Top||101-98||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pacers +
The Pacers are showing exceptional value here as a near double-digit road dog against the Thunder. Indiana went into the All-Star break off an embarrassing 22-point loss at home to the Hornets and I look for them to come out extremely motivated in their first game back. Prior to that loss the Pacers had won 5 of 7.
Oklahoma City has gone 14-2 in their last 16 games and I believe that has them way overvalued here. The Thunder could also have a hard time getting up for this contest, being it's the first game after the break and they have a much bigger home game on deck agains the Cavaliers Sunday.
Indiana is a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and 18-8 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record. Thunder are just 10-24 ATS in their last 34 against teams who average 99+ points/game and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall. Take Indiana!
|02-11-16||Wizards v. Bucks -1||Top||92-99||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
5* Wizards/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks -
Milwaukee comes into the final game before the All-Star break having gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games, but that has a lot to do with the schedule. Of the 7 losses, 6 came on the road, where the Bucks are just 7-24 on the season.
Milwaukee defeated the Celtics 112-111 at home in their last game as a 4-point dog and are 5-1 in their last 6 home games overall with wins over Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Orlando and Boston. The Wizards come in off a 111-108 win at New York, but are just 4-8 in their last 12. Washington has been especially bad on the defensive side of things of late, as they are allowing 111.6 ppg over their last 5. I don't see the defensive intensity getting turned up for a road game against the Bucks with the long layoff for the All-Star break on deck.
Washington is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a win by 3 points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a road win scoring 110 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing at least 4 of their last 6 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee!
|02-08-16||Bulls +6 v. Hornets||Top||91-108||Loss||-109||8 h 15 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls +
Chicago comes into this game having lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 overall, plus are not expected to have the services of All-Star Jimmy Butler. I believe oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line because of this and thus the Bulls are showing some great value here against the Hornets. Keep in mind that Chicago was a 3.5-point favorite earlier this season at Charlotte. As good as Butler is, he's not worth 9.5-points.
Whenever a team is missing a key player like the Bulls will be tonight, that takes away from the focus and intensity of the other team. I just don't see the Hornets being as focused for this game as you would expect and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Chicago won this game outright.
Road teams that have allowed 100+ points in 4 straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 or less are 49-30 (62%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. At the same time, Favorites off a win by 6 or less against an opponent off 3 straight games with a combined score of 205 or more points are just 22-50 (31%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago!
|02-05-16||Celtics v. Cavs -7||Top||104-103||Loss||-105||9 h 19 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs -
This may seem like a big number for Cleveland to be laying against a Celtics team that has won 7 of their last 8, but I don't see Boston being able to contain the Cavaliers in this one. The Celtics recent surge has primarily come against bad teams, as 6 of the 7 wins came against the 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Magic, Knicks and Pistons.
Cleveland isn't going to take this game lightly after an embarrassing 97-106 loss at Charlotte with the Hornets playing without Kemba Walker. Returning home should do the trick for the Cavs, where they are a dominant 19-3 at home this season and off a 14-point win against the Spurs in their last home game. Cleveland also won by 12 at Boston earlier this season.
Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 against team with a winning record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a contest where they were out rebounded by 20 or more. Take Cleveland!
|01-28-16||Hawks v. Pacers -3||Top||92-111||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Pacers NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pacers -
While the Pacers come into this game having lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall, this team showed signs of turning the corner with Tuesday's heartbreaking 89-91 home loss to the Clippers. I believe we are seeing Indiana greatly undervalued here because of their recent poor stretch.
Atlanta is also coming off a crushing loss at home to the Clippers, as they lost 83-85 last night to LA. Having to play on no rest is going to be a tall task for the Hawks to overcome against a highly motivated Pacers team. Keep in mind that Atlanta only had 1-day off prior to their game against the Clippers, which followed a 4-game west coast road trip.
It's also important to note that the Pacers already won 93-87 at home against Atlanta this season and despite losing their last 2 at home are a strong 13-7 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana also seems to play their best against the best, as the Pacers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing only their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. Take Indiana!
|01-25-16||Hawks -5 v. Nuggets||Top||119-105||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hawks -
This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta and fade the Nuggets. Denver is getting a lot of love from the books due to covering the spread in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 overall, but will be outclassed against the Hawks. Atlanta will be all business after an embarrassing 95-98 loss at Phoenix as a 10-point favorite, which followed a 88-91 defeat at Sacramento. The Hawks haven't lost 3 straight since the middle of December and I don't see that streak coming to an end here.
The Nuggets come into this game off a 104-101 win at home against the Pistons, which they were fortunate to win after trailing by 9 at the half. Fading teams in this spot has been a profitable move over the years, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close home win by 3 or less are just 12-37 (24%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996.
The Hawks have also been a strong team to back when coming off a game where they lost outright as a favorite. They are 19-9 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average of 7.4 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take Atlanta!
|01-22-16||Bulls +3.5 v. Celtics||Top||101-110||Loss||-115||10 h 44 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls +
Chicago is coming off one of their most embarrassing losses of the season, as they lost 94-125 at home to the Warriors in Wednesday's nationally televised game on ESPN. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulls and I look for them to come out inspired against the Celtics tonight. Chicago has responded well in this spot of late, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a double-digit loss at home.
Hard to not like their chances given how poorly the Celtics have been playing. Boston is just 4-8 in their last 12 games and two of those wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league right now in the Nets and Suns. Boston did win at home earlier this season, but are just 2-7 in their last 9 games in the series against the Bulls.
A big reason Boston is struggling right now is there defense, as they come in allowing a staggering 109.4 ppg over their last 5 contests. Last time out they gave up 115 to the Raptors. That's important to note, as the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after allowing 110 or more points in their previous game.
Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Bulls. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 25-6 (81%) ATS since 1996. Take Chicago!
|01-20-16||Hawks v. Blazers +2||Top||104-98||Loss||-100||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Blazer ESPN ATS Vegas Insider on Blazers +
The books are begging you to take the Hawks as a small road favorite against the Blazers in a prime time matchup on ESPN, which only strengthens how much I like Portland in this spot. The Blazers come into this game playing well. They have won 4 of their last 5, which includes two impressive home wins over the Thunder (115-10) and Jazz (99-85).
Atlanta is simply getting a lot of love here due to back-to-back blowout wins at home against the Nets (114-86) and Magic (98-81). Two teams that aren't very good and not playing well at the moment. The key thing here is the Hawks have not played well on the road of late. They lost back-to-back games at Charlotte (84-107) and Milwaukee (101-108) and have dropped 4 of their last 6 away from home with one of the wins coming against the 76ers.
These two teams played in Atlanta back on 12/21, which the Hawks won by a final of 106-97. That may appear as positive for Atlanta, but Portland is a completely different team on the road and were without their top two scorers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It's also worth noting that the Blazers went just 5 of 24 from the 3-point line and as a team rank 3rd in the league with 10.3 3-pointers made per game.
Hawks are a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games in the 2nd half of the season against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a marginal winning team (40% to 49%). Blazers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 off an upset win as a road dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take Portland!
|01-15-16||Hawks -3.5 v. Bucks||Top||101-108||Loss||-113||10 h 57 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Bucks NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Hawks -
Atlanta comes into this game off an embarrassing 84-107 loss at Charlotte on Wednesday, which followed one of their best efforts of the season in a 120-105 win against the Bulls last Saturday. With home games against the Nets and Magic on deck, we should get a max effort here from the Hawks as they will be extremely motivated to make a statement after how poorly they played against the Hornets.
I look for them to have no problem getting a win here against the Bucks, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. While Milwaukee had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, as well as their 4th in the last 6 days. Atlanta on the other hand is well-rested, as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.
It's also important to note that the Hawks have owned the Bucks of late. Atlanta is 13-2 against Milwaukee over the last 15 meetings and have won 6 straight at the Bradley Center, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the process.
The Hawks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total 200 to 209.5 and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite. WE also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bucks. Teams off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog against an opponent off a loss by 10 or more as a road favorite are 14-44 (24%) ATS since 1996. Take Atlanta!
|01-08-16||Mavs v. Bucks +1||Top||95-96||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
5* Mavs/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +
I really like the value we are getting with the Bucks at basically a pick'em at home against the Mavericks. Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. I look for them to come out sluggish against Milwaukee. The Mavericks followed up a double-overtime game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hard fought 100-91 win at New Orleans and I just don't see the energy being there in this one.
Milwaukee on the other hand is going to come out motivated to get a win after a couple of ugly losses to the Spurs (98-123) and Bulls (106-117) in their last 2 games. The Bucks will also be out for revenge from a 93-103 loss at Dallas on 12/28.
Bucks are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Dallas on the other hand is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee!
|01-06-16||Mavs v. Pelicans -5.5||Top||100-91||Loss||-103||9 h 27 m||Show|
5* NBA Southwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Pelicans -
The perception here is that the Mavericks will be out for revenge from a 98-105 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday, but the reality is that Dallas likely won't have anything left in the tank for this matchup.
The Mavericks just played a grueling double-overtime game against the Kings last night, which saw the two teams combined for 233 points. Not only is Dallas in a horrible back-to-back spot on the road, but this is also their 4th game in the last 6 days.
New Orleans on the other hand is playing on 3 days rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Having just beat the Mavericks isn't going to have the Pelicans coming into this game over-confident, which is normally where the revenge angle comes into play. New Orleans can't afford to take any games off, as they have the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference.
Dallas is just 23-35 ATS in their last 58 after playing a game where both teams combined for 205 or more points, while the Pelicans are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take New Orleans!
|01-04-16||Celtics -7 v. Nets||Top||103-94||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Celtics -
The Celtics will be out for revenge against the Nets, as they just lost at home to Brooklyn 97-100 in their last game. This came on the heels of an ugly 104-112 home loss to the Lakers. Needless to say we can expect a max effort here from Boston in this spot. The same can't be said for the Nets, who also find themselves in a tough spot playing their first game without starting point guard Jarrett Jack, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the win over Boston.
Brooklyn hasn't won consecutive games in almost a month (12/8 and 12/10) and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Boston on the other hand is a team that has thrived on the road. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. They are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing with double-revenge and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents on average by 3+ points/game are 48-19 (72%) ATS since 1996 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Boston!
|12-29-15||Hawks v. Rockets -2.5||Top||121-115||Loss||-110||9 h 23 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Rockets -
The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as basically a pick'em at home against the Hawks. Houston has won 7 straight at home, including an impressive 88-84 win over the Spurs in their last home game. The Rockets did lose their last game at New Orleans 108-110, but that was a tough spot on the road with no rest after laying it all on the line against San Antonio on Christmas Day.
The key here is that loss has created some value with Houston, who comes in well rested with 2 days off before this matchup. Atlanta on the other hand is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Hawks played last night in a hard fought 87-93 loss at Indiana and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back road set and 6th game overall in the last 10 days.
Rockets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when playing with 2 days of rest, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in last 4 when playing on no rest. Take Houston!
|12-18-15||Hawks v. Celtics -4||Top||109-101||Loss||-100||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics -
I think we are seeing some great value here on Boston as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. The Celtics come into this game having lost back-to-back games, but haven't dropped 3 straight since the opening week of the season. Keep in mind Boston's two losses came at home against the red-hot Cavaliers and then at Detroit on no rest. Expect to see a highly motivated Celtics team take the floor tonight.
Atlanta comes into this game off a 21-pont blowout win at home against the 76ers, which is definitely playing into this small line. However, the Hawks are a team that has not been playing well and shouldn't get any credit for beating a horrible Philadelphia team. Even with the win Atlanta is just 7-10 in their last 17 games.
The home team has had a decisive edge in this series. Boston won at home 106-93 on 11/13 and Atlanta returned the favor with a 121-97 win at home on 11/24. The home team has now won 6 of the last 7 overall.
The Celtics are 40-27 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and are a perfect 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 3-points or less. Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a S& win, 0-2 ATS off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Boston!
|12-14-15||Rockets -4 v. Nuggets||Top||108-114||Loss||-110||10 h 51 m||Show|
5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Rockets -
It might not seem like much, but with a win Houston can move above .500 for the first time this season. I believe it's a big deal for the Rockets, who have put their ugly struggles behind them and started playing up to their potential. Houston is 7-2 over their last 9 games a very profitable 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
One of the reasons we are seeing a small line here is the fact that the Denver has already beat the Rockets twice this season. They won 107-98 as a 6.5-point home dog on 11/13 and 105-85 as a 10.5-point road dog on 10/28. That double-revenge works more in the favor of the Rockets than the Nuggets and it's important to note that both of those victories came prior to Houston's recent surge.
Denver has historically been a good home team, but that's not the case this season. The Nuggets are just 4-7 at home and were fortunate to win their last home game in a 111-108 overtime win against Minnesota (trailed by 15 at half). Denver is just 3-9 in their last 12 and all 3 wins came by 3-points or less (easily could be riding 12-game losing streak).
While the Nuggets haven't played since Friday, they are just 3-14 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing with 2 days of rest. Denver is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 8-18 in their last 26 as a home dog. Adding to this, we see that favorites revenging 2 losses as a favorite are 133-81 (70%) ATS when coming off a home win since 1996. Take Houston!
|12-11-15||Wizards v. Pelicans -2.5||Top||105-107||Loss||-107||10 h 19 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Pelicans -
It's been about as bad a start to the season as you could imagine for the Pelicans, who surprised just about everyone when they snuck into the Western Conference playoffs last year. A big reason for New Orleans' struggles has been injuries and that's where the value lies in the Pelicans laying just 2.5-points at home against the Wizards.
New Orleans is almost back to full strength. Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole returned recently and they are expected to get back Kendrick Perkins, who has been sidelined since October. While the return of Evans and Cole didn't pay off immediately, the Pelicans did have an impressive 114-108 win at home over the Cavaliers last Friday. While they followed that up with a 93-111 loss to the Celtics, that's the only game New Orleans has played in the last 7 days. The Pelicans are fresh, hungry and extremely motivated.
While New Orleans is getting healthy, the Wizards are dealing with numerous injuries right now, most notably in the front court. Nene and Drew Gooden are both expected to be out and Kris Humphries is questionable. Being thin in the front court is not what you want against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. I look for Davis to dominate this game and let's not forget the Wizards are just 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Washington is 11-22 ATS in their last 33 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team with a winning road record and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games played on Friday night. Take New Orleans!
|12-09-15||Magic v. Suns -4||Top||104-107||Loss||-105||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* Non-Conference Game of the Year on Suns -
I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Suns as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Magic. Phoenix has lost 8 of their last 10 games, but will be taking the floor with a ton of confidence after a thrilling 103-101 win at Chicago last time out, where the Suns outscored the Bulls by 18 points in the 4th quarter for the improbable win.
While Phoenix's 2-8 record of their last 10 games is concerning, we can pinpoint their poor play to a brutal schedule, as 9 of their last 11 games have come on the road and one of their home games was against the Warriors. This is an ideal bounce back spot for Phoenix off that big win in Chicago and they are catching the Magic in a horrible spot.
Orlando is simply getting too much respect here due to the fact that they have won 6 of their last 7 and are 6-0-1 ATS during this stretch. However, the Magic are primed for a letdown in what will be their 5th straight road game in the last 9 days. Adding to this is the fact that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game of back-to-back set that saw them play last night in the thin air of Denver. They pulled out an ugly 85-74 win, but you could see the signs of fatigue. I believe they have nothing left in the tank and will get blown out by a hungry Suns team tonight.
Suns are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 off a road win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Orlando on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing less than 75 points and 0-1 ATS this season after scoring 85 or less. Take Phoenix!
|12-04-15||Cavs v. Pelicans +5||Top||108-114||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Pelicans NBA on ESPN Vegas Insider on Pelicans +
Cleveland lost 85-97 at home to the Wizards on Tuesday and the perception here is that they are going to bounce back with a win, which has resulted in an inflated line and some great value here with the Pelicans at home in a prime time game on ESPN.
The Cavaliers haven't been playing well of late. They are just 5-4 in their last 9 games and each of their last 2 wins have been less than impressive. They won by a final of just 95-90 at Charlotte and 90-88 at Brooklyn.
New Orleans comes in having lost 4 straight, but there's reason to be optimistic about this team turning the corner and getting back to playing like they did a year ago when they made the playoffs. The Pelicans recently got back Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole, two big pieces of the offense that can take pressure off Anthony Davis. Look for New Orleans to lay everything they have into this game and I fully expect them to get the win.
Cleveland is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite, while the Pelicans are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after losing 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take New Orleans!
|12-01-15||Suns v. Nets +3.5||Top||91-94||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conf Game of the Month on Nets +
Brooklyn is showing great value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Nets have been playing much better basketball since their 0-7 start. While they are just 4-6 since, you have to keep in mind that they have played 7 of their last 10 on the road. They were also competitive in all 6 losses during this stretch and have won all 3 of their home games.
Phoenix comes in off a 107-102 win at Toronto on Sunday, but are just 3-4 on the road on the season and just 1-4 over their last 5 overall. Tough spot for the Suns to get motivated after a big road win, especially with them missing a key piece in center Tyson Chandler. Brook Lopez should be able to have his way inside for Brooklyn with Chandler sidelined and that's going to open up everything else.
Another key factor here is the Nets have really been getting after it defensively at home. During their current 3-game winning streak at the Barclays Center they are allowing just 90.7 ppg and holding opponents to just 39.4% shooting from the field. Phoenix on the other hand has allowed 100+ in 3 straight and are allowing 106.4 ppg on the road, where opposing teams are shooting just under 47% from the field.
The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after covering in their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take Brooklyn!
|11-24-15||Celtics v. Hawks -3.5||Top||97-121||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
5* Celtics/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks -
Atlanta comes into this contest off a 97-109 loss at Cleveland, where they failed to cover as a 5.5-point underdog. The Hawks are now just 1-4 in their last 5 SU and 1-6 in their last 7 ATS. I believe this has Atlanta showing excellent value here at home against the Celtics.
The Hawks are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after their recent poor play and are well rested with this being just their second game in the last six days. Atlanta will also be out for revenge against the Celtics after a 93-106 loss at Boston back on 11/13. The thing to keep in mind with that game, is the Hawks were a 1-point road favorite, which means they should be around a 7-point home favorite against the Celtics.
The Hawks are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record. We also see a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss to an opponent that is coming in off a division road loss are 25-6 (81%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta!
|11-20-15||Rockets v. Grizzlies -4.5||Top||84-96||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Grizzlies -
The Grizzlies are showing excellent value here against the Rockets at home. Houston was able to snap a 4-game losing streak with a 108-103 home win over the Trail Blazers in their first game after the firing of head coach Kevin McHale. What's getting overlooked is the fact that the Rockets trailed by as many as 17 in the 3rd quarter and needed a 30-foot 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime.
I just don't think the firing of McHale is going to magically fix the problems that led to the Rockets poor start. I certainly don't like their chances of going on the road and beating a Memphis team that has turned the corner and are playing up to their potential after a slow start. The Grizzlies have won 3 straight and are averaging an impressive 112.3 ppg during this stretch. Their improved play all started when they made the trade to land Mario Chalmers from Miami.
When Memphis is playing well, they are extremely difficult to beat at home, which is a big reason why I like them so much tonight. The Grizzlies should be able to score at will against a Rockets defense that is allowing 108.1 ppg. Memphis did an excellent job keeping Harden in check last year, limiting him to just 19.3 ppg in their 4 meetings. Harden had 45 against the Blazers and they barely won, so the Grizzlies should have no problem covering if they continue to limit him like they did a year ago.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103 or more points/game against an opponent that scored 110 or more in their last game are just 28-63 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|11-18-15||Bulls v. Suns -2.5||Top||103-97||Loss||-105||13 h 36 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Suns ESPN ATS No Brainer on Suns -
The Suns are showing some great value here as a small home favorite in Wednesday's nationally televised matchup against the Bulls on ESPN. While both teams come in riding 3-game winning streaks, Phoenix has been the more impressive team during this stretch. Chicago barely escaped with home wins over the Hornets (102-97) and Pacers (96-95), while the Suns have won 3 straight at home by at least 14 points.
The key here is that Chicago is a team that is a heavily backed team by the public and it's why we aren't seeing Phoenix as a bigger home favorite in this matchup. I believe this will be a tough spot for the Bulls, who will be making their first trip out west and doing so without starting point guard Derrick Rose. At the same time, the Bulls have a much bigger game on deck against the undefeated Warriors on Friday.
Chicago has gone 2-2 on the road, but their 2 wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Their 2 road losses were a 94-98 defeat at Detroit and 105-130 loss at Charlotte.
Suns are 5-2 ATS at home this season, 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 10 or more points and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in last 6 versus a team with a winning record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game. Take Phoenix!
|11-16-15||Pacers +6 v. Bulls||Top||95-96||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers +
The Pacers are showing some excellent value here as a 6-point road dog against division rival Chicago. Indiana has really come on strong since their 0-3 start, winning 6 of their last 7. They come into this one riding a 3-game winning streak and should have no problem keeping it close against the Bulls.
Chicago is 6-3 and have won 2 straight, but they aren't dominating teams. Their only 2 wins by more than 6-points have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Indiana's only loss during their recent surge is a 4-point defeat at Cleveland. Adding to this is the fact that the Bulls are 1-4 ATS at home, while the Pacers are 3-1 ATS on the road.
Indiana is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games in the month of November, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days rest. These trends add up to form a dynamite 27-1 system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!
|11-13-15||Hornets v. Bulls -6.5||Top||97-102||Loss||-107||10 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Bulls -
I'm expecting a dominating performance at home from the Bulls tonight against the Hornets. Chicago most lopsided loss of the season came at Charlotte last week in a 105-130 defeat. That loss didn't sit well with the Bulls, as they allowed the Hornets to shoot 51.6% from the field, easily the worst mark they have given up in 2015. Last season the Bulls followed up a 91-101 loss at Charlotte with a 98-86 home win 10 days later, which is what I'm expecting here.
Not only will Chicago be out for revenge, but they are going to be motivated off an ugly loss at home to the Timberwolves in their last home game. Their only home defeat of the season. The key here is the Bulls will have the fresher legs, as they come into this game off a 3-day break. Charlotte on the other hand will be playing their 3rd in 4 days and 4th road game in their last 5 overall.
Bulls are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 when revenge a road loss of 10 or more points and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Chicago!
|11-06-15||Wizards v. Celtics +1.5||Top||98-118||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Celtics +
With the Wizards sitting at 3-1 and the Celtics at 1-3, this may seem like an obvious spot to back Washington as a small road favorite. I don't think that's the case at all. The books are begging for money on the Wizards with this small spread, but the real value here is with Boston as a small home favorite.
The Celtics have proceeded to lose 3 straight since their blowout win at home against the 76ers in their opener. Two of those losses came at home against the Raptors and Spurs, who are two of the better teams in the league. The other was a heartbreaking 2-point loss at Indiana that could have went either way.
Washington is getting some love here after their 102-99 win at home against the Spurs. San Antonio is a team that everyone gets up for, so I actually think that sets them up for a letdown, especially with a huge division road game against the Hawks on deck tomorrow. The Wizards other two wins have come against the Magic and Bucks, which isn't saying much. What stands out is a 7-point home loss to the Knicks, who aren't any good.
Wizards are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 off a win by 6 points or less and just 9-21 in their last 30 road games on Friday night. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Washington is 3-7 in their last 10 against a team with a losing home record.
We also find a strong system, as teams off an upset loss as a favorite (Celtics) against an opponent off an upset win as a home dog (Wizards) are 67-33 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Boston!
|11-04-15||Clippers +8 v. Warriors||Top||108-112||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers +
We are seeing the Warriors overvalued here due to their 4-0 SU & ATS start, which includes a 50-point win over Memphis at home in their last contest. The thing to keep in mind is that none of the teams they have beat are playing well to start the season. The Pelicans, who they have played twice, are 0-4, Memphis is just 3-2 with a 30-point loss to Cleveland and the Rockets are 1-3.
The Clippers will be without a doubt the best team they have faced to this point. Los Angeles has also started 4-0, though they are just 2-2 ATS with both non-covers coming in their last 2 games. There's no question this a game the Clippers have circled on the schedule, as it's a big measuring stick to see where they stand against the former champs. I look for LA to come out and give the Warriors all they can handle in a game that I see being decided in the final minutes.
Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after 2 straight games where they had 10 or fewer offensive rebounds. Take Los Angeles!
|10-30-15||Wolves v. Nuggets -4||Top||95-78||Loss||-108||12 h 14 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Nuggets -
Denver is a team that no one was talking about coming into the season, but are one to keep an eye on. The Nuggets were certainly impressive in their opener, going on the road and defeating the Rockets 105-85 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Timberwolves played inspired in wake of the unfortunate loss of Saunders and pulled out a 112-111 against the Lakers in LA. They needed a late rally to do so and let's no get carried away with a win over a Lakers team that is one of the worst in the west.
Last year the Nuggets went just 19-22 at home and it's been a point of emphasis this offseason to bring back the home court edge to the Pepsi Center. I look for the Nuggets to come out inspired in this one and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this turned into a blowout.
Minnesota could have a difficult time bouncing back after that emotional win to start the season, plus this is a very young team that isn't all that familiar with success and winning back-to-back games on the road is not something you see many young teams do. I also like the point guard matchup here, with Nuggets rookie Emmanuel Mudiay's defensive presence against Ricky Rubio.
Nuggets are 11-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a win by 10 or more points as an underdog and are 34-15 in their last 49 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 10-21 ATS over the last 2 years after allowing 110 or more points and 18-39 ATS in their last 57 off a road win by 3 points or less. Take Denver!
|06-16-15||Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5||Top||105-97||Loss||-108||11 h 33 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game 6 No Brainer on Cavs +
It's do or die for the Cavaliers in Game 6 at home and I expect James and company to deliver. Playing at home is exactly what Cleveland's players need, as they will be able to feed off the energy of the home crowd.
As good as Golden State has looked in their last two games, it's a whole different beast closing out a series, especially on the road for the NBA title. I look for the pressure to get to the Warriors. Cleveland is also the more desperate team and desperation has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason.
Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102+ PPG) after 42+ games are a mere 10-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Cavs. Take Cleveland!
|06-14-15||Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||91-104||Loss||-107||11 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavaliers +
I anticipated that the Cavaliers were in trouble in Game 4. Not only did Golden State seem to figure out something offensively with David Lee getting more minutes, but Cleveland had used up so much energy in Games 2 & 3 that they were due for a letdown.
I believe the 2 days off between Game 4 and Game 5 are huge for the Cavaliers. Look for James to return to the form that had him flirting with 40 points and a triple-double in the first 3 and for Cleveland to keep this one well within striking distance to cover. I also don't think it's out of question that the Cavaliers win this outright.
The Cavaliers are 33-19 in their last 52 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points and 15-2 in their last 17 after playing 4 straight games as an underdog. Take Cleveland!
|06-11-15||Golden State Warriors -2.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||Top||103-82||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Warriors -
Golden State didn't make the adjustments that I expected going into Game 3 and it was more of the same thing that we saw in Games 1 and 2. However, I believe they found something in that contest with David Lee. His ability to make plays out of the pick-and-roll really gave the Warriors offense a boost and we started to see Curry look like the MVP down the stretch.
The Warriors just haven't looked themselves and I think the desperation that comes with being down 2-1 on the road is going to light a fire under this team. It's about time the role players stepped up and contributed.
You also have to take into consideration that LeBron is due to regress some from the ridiculous numbers he's put up in the first three games of the series. You also have to keep in mind that both Shumpert and Dellavedova were banged up in Game 3 and the Cav's have no depth. I just see this being a bit of a letdown for Cleveland. Take Golden State to tie it up at 2-2!
|06-09-15||Golden State Warriors -1.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||Top||91-96||Loss||-108||10 h 59 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors -
LeBron James was special in Game 2 with 39 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists, while Golden State's Stephen Curry had one of his worst games in recent memory (5 of 23 for 19 points). You would expect Cleveland to have won by double-digits given this stat line, but instead they nearly lost outright.
James is going to continue to get his, but I just don't see the Cavaliers being able to keep up their defensive intensity. They just don't have a deep enough bench and I believe the 1-day off between Game 2 and Game 3 is going to be the difference here. Curry will be much better tonight and chances are James won't replicate his triple-double stat line.
All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 51-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State!
|06-07-15||Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||95-93||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Cavs +
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Cavaliers now an 8-point dog in Game 2. I know Cleveland lost a key player in Irving, but he was already playing at less than 100% and was a liability defensively. As long as James is on the floor, the Cavs have a shot at winning. While I don't think they get a victory here, I am expecting this to be a close game.
Over James' career he's lost Game 1 of a series 8 times and his team has rebounded on all 8 of those occasions to win Game 2 (7-1 ATS). That trend alone makes this an obvious play on Cleveland given we are almost getting double-digits here.
It's also worth noting that home favorites who are leading in a playoff series that won 75% or more of their games against a team with a winning record are 14-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!
|06-04-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5||Top||100-108||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals G1 Vegas Insider on Warriors -
The Warriors are showing decent value here as a mere 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the finals. Keep in mind that Golden State was no less than a 9.5-point favorite in any of their previous home games in the playoffs. Not to mention the Warriors only lost 3 times at home all season.
Cleveland may have the best player in the game in LeBron James, but the Warriors are the better team. Golden State's depth is going to pose a big problem for the Cavaliers, who are without Love and Irving playing at less than 100%.
It also comes down to matchups. Warriors have the players defensively that can guard James and lower his efficiency, similar to what the Bulls did. Cleveland on the other hand has no answer defensively for Curry or Thompson. Let's not forget that James has never won a Game 1 road contest in his career (0-7). Take Golden State!
|05-27-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10.5||Top||90-104||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Warriors -
|05-26-15||Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5||Top||88-118||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Cavs NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Cavs -
|05-24-15||Atlanta Hawks +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||Top||111-114||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Cavs No Brainer on Hawks +
|05-23-15||Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets +1.5||Top||115-80||Loss||-108||18 h 30 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Rockets +
|05-21-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10||Top||98-99||Loss||-115||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
While the Warriors ended up winning Game 1 by just 4-points, there were some positive signs that point to a blowout victory in Game 2. Golden State trailed by as many as 16 in the 2nd quarter and later led by as many as 11. In just a little over a half, the Warriors outscored the Rockets by 37-points.
With Dwight Howard likely sidelined and not effective if he does play, I just don't see the Warriors taking their foot off the gas, especially after losing Game 2 at home after winning Game 1 in their last series against Memphis.
You also have to factor in that James Harden put up 28 on 11 of 20 shooting in Game 1 and to do so had to make a number of difficult shots. Even if Harden has another strong game, I still think the Warriors win here by double-digits. Take Golden State!
|05-20-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1||Top||97-89||Loss||-102||11 h 26 m||Show|
5* Cavaliers/Hawks NBA No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
Both of these teams closed out their last series with 3 straight wins after falling into an early 1-2 series deficit. While you could make a strong case for both teams in Game 1, I think the value here is clearly with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on their home floor.
Atlanta proved to be a horrible matchup for the Cavaliers in the regular season. Cleveland won the first game of the series at home, but would drop the last 3 by a combined 46 points. Cleveland had no answer defensively in those 3 losses, as the Hawks shot 50% or better in all 3 of their wins. With Cleveland playing without Love and Irving clearly at less than 100%, Atlanta provided a much better matchup here than most people think.
Cleveland is just 4-13 ATS in their 17 games this season when listed as an underdog and 4-14 in their last 18 road games when revenging a road loss. Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win as a road dog. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|05-19-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10||Top||106-110||Loss||-110||11 h 16 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Warriors -
While the Rockets pulled off the shocking comeback against the Clippers, I'm not expecting Houston to put up much of a fight against the Warriors. While 10-points is a lot to be laying in a playoff game, keep in mind that Golden State swept the season series 4-0 with all 4 wins coming by double-digits.
I believe Houston's success at the end of the Clippers series was more a result of LA's starters running out of gas. The Clippers featured a thin rotation that just couldn't hold up. When they were were clicking they embarrassed Houston early in the series and that's what I'm expecting to see here, as the Warriors feature a deep roster and matches up well with the Rockets.
The other big factor here is rest. Golden State has been off since Friday, while Houston just played a do or die Game 7 on Sunday. It's going to be hard for the Rockets to come out with the intensity needed to keep it close on the road against a team like the Warriors. I also think the fact that Golden State fell behind early against Memphis will have them extra motivated to start the series strong.
Warriors are 9-1 in their last 10 home games when playing just their 6th game in a span of 14 days and have won these by an average score of 111.7 to 94.1 (+17.6 ppg). Golden State is also 12-4 in their last 16 off 3 straight wins by 10+ points and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing with at least 3 days of rest. These trends combine to form a 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State!
|05-17-15||Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets||Top||100-113||Loss||-109||6 h 41 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers -
The better team advanced to the conference finals in each of the other 3 series and I expect this one to be no different. The Clippers got outplayed in Game 5 at Houston and let their foot off the gas at home in Game 6. Even with the Rockets getting Game 7 at home, I like the Clipper to come out with a win to move on to face Golden State.
Road favorites playing with double-revenge after a game where the opponent played on the road and each team scored 100+ points have gone 57-24 (70%) ATS since 1996. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 8-2 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days rest. Take Los Angeles!
|05-14-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -2||Top||94-73||Loss||-110||10 h 25 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bulls -
Cleveland has taken back control of the series with two straight wins to lead 3-2, but I look for them to really struggle here in Game 6 against a Bulls team with their backs against the wall. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers invested a lot in those two wins, as those were two games they couldn't afford to lose.
Both of those games came right down to the wire and Chicago was missing a key part in their offense in Gasol, who is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Getting Gasol back makes the Bulls a much more dangerous team and I believe it will be the difference in this one.
Cavaliers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 1 days rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, while Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 80% (32-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|05-13-15||Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||78-98||Loss||-103||12 h 29 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Grizzlies +
While the Warriors were able to come away with an easy 101-84 win at Memphis to tie up the series at 2-2, I don't see them blowing out the Grizzlies in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that Memphis won at Golden State 97-90 in Game 2 as a 10-point dog.
This is also a bit of a letdown spot for the Warriors, as they laid everything they had on the line in Game 4 to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I do think there's a good chance that Golden State wins this game, but 9.5-points is a lot to cover, especially the way these two teams have been grinding it out defensively.
Warriors are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Grizzlies are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends add up to form a strong 79% (30-8) system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|05-12-15||Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Houston Rockets||Top||103-124||Loss||-110||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers -
While the Rockets are facing elimination and this may seem like the spot to back them as a small home dog, I just don't think Houston is going to be able to extend the series to a Game 6. Doc Rivers understands the importance of closing out the series and getting that extra rest before the conference finals, especially with Paul nursing a hamstring injury.
Houston has already lost at home to the Clippers without Paul and were fortunate to win Game 2 with Paul sidelined. They clearly had a lot to play for in their two games in LA and they didn't show up in either of those contests, getting blown out by 25 points in Game 3 and 33 points in Game 4.
Clippers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games overall, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against poor free throw shooting teams that are making 71% or less from the charity line and 8-0 ATS in the 2nd half over the last 2 seasons against teams who average 27 or more free throw attempts/game. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (36-7) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|05-10-15||Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||95-128||Loss||-110||10 h 19 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Clippers NBA No Limit Top Play on Rockets +
I'm expecting a much better effort defensively from Houston in Game 3 and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. These two teams are more evenly matched than the spread would indicate and I don't see there being such a drastic difference in shooting percentage in Game 4. The Clippers shot 55.4% from the field in Game 3, while the Rockets hit just 39.8% of their attempts.
This is a zig-zag theory play at it's finest and so far the system has been hitting at a high rate here in the conference quarterfinals. Adding to that is the fact that the Rockets are 20-8 in their last 28 after a defeat and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a loss of 10+ points.
Road underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent off a home win are 75-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% 5-year system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|05-08-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5||Top||96-99||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
Cleveland came out on a mission in Game 2 to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series and the Bulls simply weren't able to match that intensity off that big win in Game 1. I still think Chicago is the better team here with the Cavaliers missing Love and really like the value we are getting with the Bulls laying just 1.5-points at home.
Cleveland was on fire from downtown in Game 2, hitting 46% (12-26). I just don't see that kind of shooting carrying over on the road against a Bulls defense that will be a lot better than it was in Game 2. Cavaliers rely too much on 1-on-1 basketball with James and Irving and need them to be special just to keep it close.
When the books list the Cavs as an underdog, it's been a wise move to take the favorite, as Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS this season when getting points. The Cavs are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a win by 10+ points. Chicago on the other hand is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 revenging a loss of 10+ points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points. These trends combine to form a 80% (33-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|05-06-15||Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5||Top||109-115||Loss||-107||12 h 42 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Rockets -
LA shocked Houston in Game 1 by winning on the road and stealing the homecourt advantage without Chris Paul in the lineup. I don't know if it was the long layoff from the first series or the fact that they thought it would be an easy win with Paul on the sidelines, but the Rockets clearly didn't show up to play.
That's not going to be the case in Game 2. The Rockets have to treat this like a Game 7, as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2 in the series. The Clippers on the other hand are in a prime letdown spot. They got the split they wanted and I would be shocked if Paul played tonight. I could see this one getting ugly in a hurry in favor of the Rockets, as LA is already likely looking ahead to Game 3.
Houston is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110+ points and 8-1 ATS in last 9 home games when revenging a loss. Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss and 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 or more. These trends combine to form a strong 86% (37-6) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|05-05-15||Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||97-90||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Grizzlies +
The Grizzlies were without one of their most important pieces in point guard Mike Conley in Game 1 and shot a dreadful 25% from the 3-point line in a 15-point defeat. With Conley expected to return and a good chance Memphis won't be as bad from long-distance, I believe we are getting some incredible value here with the Grizzlies catching double-digits in Game 2.
One of the important things to note is that Memphis' defense played well in the series opener, limiting the Warriors to just 101 points. Conley not only helps out offensively, but his defensive presence on Curry should make a big difference. I don't think it's out of the question that Memphis wins this game outright.
Home favorites that won more than 75% of their games and leading in a playoff series are just 13-37 ATS against a team with a winning record since 1996. That's a 74% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!