Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-19 | Suns v. Nuggets -11.5 | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Nuggets -11.5 The Key: The Phoenix Suns will be without star center Deandre Ayton for the foreseeable future due to a suspension. He had a big game against the Kings in an opening night home win. Without him, the Suns have no rim protection, and the Nuggets should score at will on them. The Nuggets won 132-95 and 119-91 in their last two home meetings with the Suns. The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with the Suns. The Suns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Nuggets overall. Take Denver. |
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10-25-19 | Astros v. Nationals OVER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
7* Astros/Nationals Game 3 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 8 The Key: Zack Greinke is 0-4 with a 6.14 ERA in his last 6 playoff starts. Look for him to get rocked again in another high scoring Game 3. The weather is perfect in Washington DC with little to no wind and 60 degree temps at game time. Anibal Sanchez has been good this postseason, but he faces a different animal here in this hungry Astros lineup. The OVER is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games. Take the OVER. |
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10-24-19 | Redskins +17 v. Vikings | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
7* Redskins/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +17 The Key: The Redskins have two former Vikings on their team that are arguably their two biggest leaders, and they want to win this game for them. Case Keenum led the Vikings to a deep playoff run before the Vikings let him go the following season. And Adrian Peterson had a great career with the Vikings. You know both players want to beat their former team, and you know the Redskins will have their backs. That’s why I don’t question their motivation after a tough 1-6 start to the season. The Vikings are getting a lot of respect from the books now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. They won’t have Adam Thielen for this game, and they shouldn’t be laying 17 points. The Redskins haven’t lost by more than 8 points to the Vikings in any of their last 10 meetings. Take this 10-0 angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Washington. |
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10-24-19 | Bucks v. Rockets OVER 229 | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Bucks/Rockets NBA *Total* Annihilator on OVER 229 The Key: This is a great opener for both teams that fans should love. The Bucks ranked 2nd in the NBA in pace in the preseason with 111 possessions per game and will play at one of the fastest paces in the league during the regular season as well. The Rockets ranked 6th in pace in the preseason. So this is a matchup of 2 of the top 6 teams in pace, which screams OVER. The OVER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 road games. The OVER is 9-3 in Bucks last 12 against Western Conference teams. Take the OVER. |
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10-24-19 | SMU -13 v. Houston | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
6* SMU/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on SMU -13 The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 7-0 and boast one of the best offenses in the country. They have scored 41 or more points in 6 straight games and are averaging 44.3 PPG this season. They will score 40-plus in this one against a soft Houston defense. And they will cover this spread because of it. The Cougars were outgained by 152 yards by UConn last week, which is all you need to know about how poor of a team this Houston squad is right now. Sonny Dykes is 10-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive wins as a head coach. Take SMU. |
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10-23-19 | Nuggets +1 v. Blazers | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
6* Nuggets/Blazers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Denver +1 The Key: The Denver Nuggets want revenge after losing in 6 games to the Blazers in the playoffs last year, costing them a trip to the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will probably be the best team in the Western Conference during the regular season and get the top seed again. They bring almost everyone back and add in Jerami Grant from the Thunder and get Michael Porter Jr. healthy to start the season. The Blazers lose four key role players and only added Hassan Whiteside and Kent Bazemore of any significance. And Whiteside is pretty much a cancer and his motivation is a question night in and night out after he got a big contract. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Portland. Take Denver. |
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10-23-19 | Wizards v. Mavs -8.5 | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks -8.5 The Key: The Mavericks will be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this year. They get Kristaps Porzingis back from injury and pair him with Luka Doncic. They have some great role players and added Delon Wright and Seth Curry in the offseason. Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA. For the Wizards, they will be one of the worst teams in the league. Scott Brooks is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA. Their starting 5 of Ish Smith, Bradley Beal, Riu Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant is one of the worst in the NBA. They traded Otto Porter Jr. last year, and also lost Jeff Green, Trevor Arizona, Markieff Morris, Dwight Howard, Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis and Tomas Satoransky. There’s just nothing to like about this team outside Bradley Beal as they are rebuilding. The Wizards are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 road games. The Mavericks are 14-4 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 years. The Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 home meetings. Take Dallas. |
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10-23-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
7* Astros/Nationals Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +1.5 (-132) The Key: Stephen Strasburg is the biggest underdog he has ever been in his career tonight. Only having to lay -132 on him on the +1.5 run line is a gift from the books. Another game that’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel here and it’s likely this game is decided by one run either way. Strasburg sports a 1.10 ERA in 7 lifetime postseason appearances with 6 starts. Justin Verlander is 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has yielded 10 runs and 5 homers in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch. The Nationals are 90-35 in Strasburg’s last 125 starts and 44-15 in his last 59 road starts. Take Washington on the Run Line. |
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10-22-19 | Lakers -3 v. Clippers | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
6* Lakers/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3 The Key: The Lakers want to make a statement in the opener tonight and let the Clippers know that the city of Los Angeles belongs to them. LeBron James finally got to take a summer off as the Lakers missed the playoffs, so he will be rejuvenated. The same goes for Anthony Davis, who is easily the best superstar James has ever played with, which makes sense why they are the favorites to win the NBA title. And I thought the Lakers did a good job in free agency after missing out on Kawhi Leonard. They salvaged it by getting key role players in Danny Green, Avery Bradley, Dwight Howard and Jared Dudley. They have surrounded James and Davis with some great shooting, which is key to winning in the NBA. The Clippers are without Paul George to start the season and they won’t live up to their massive expectations early on because of it. Kawhi won’t play big minutes early after the deep playoff run he made to earn the Raptors their first ever NBA title. Take the Lakers. |
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10-22-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
7* Nationals/Astros Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +1.5 (-115) The Key: The total for this game is only 6.5, so oddsmakers are expecting a pitcher’s duel. And when that’s the case there is a good chance the game is decided by one run either way. Getting Max Scherzer on the run line here as only a -115 favorite is a great price. Scherzer has been dominant in the postseason, especially of late while yielding only one run and 5 hits in his last 15 innings pitched for a 0.60 ERA. The Nationals have won 15 of Scherzer’s last 18 starts. They have won 6 straight playoff games and couldn’t possibly come into the World Series with any more confidence after coming from behind to win the wild card game and Game 5 of the NLDS over the Dodgers before sweeping the Cardinals with ease. Take Washington on the Run Line. |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -114 | 81 h 56 m | Show |
7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season. And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono. He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys. Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win. He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons. And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of. Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass. The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better. The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams. I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback. Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk. Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years. Take New York. |
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10-20-19 | Chargers v. Titans -2 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 47 m | Show | |
6* Chargers/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -2 The Key: The Tennessee Titans weren’t going anywhere with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. I think inserting Ryan Tannehill at QB this week will give the team a spark in the short term. He’s one of the best backup QB’s in the NFL and did well with what he had to work with when he was with the Miami Dolphins. The Titans have more weapons than the Dolphins did, and I think he can get this offense on track. The Chargers are broken at 2-4 on the season and have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL. They are playing without S Derwin James, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, WR Travis Benjamin and C Mike Pouncey. They could also be without NT Brandon Mebane, DL Justin Jones, K Michael Badgley and DE Melvin Ingram, who are all questionable. They just haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and they won’t this week either. The Titans are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Titans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. The Chargers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take Tennessee. |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday. They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting. Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense. And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL. Arizona could easily be 0-6. Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points. They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them. The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year. I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does. Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense. The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game. The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games. Take New York. |
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10-20-19 | Raiders +5.5 v. Packers | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Raiders/Packers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oakland +5.5 The Key: The Raiders are in a great situation Sunday. They have 2 weeks to get ready for the Packers after having their bye last week. And the Packers are on a short week after a fortunate 23-22 win on Monday Night Football that was gifted to them by the refs. The Packers are fortunate to be 5-1 this year as they keep winning all their close games. Oakland continues to get no respect from oddsmakers. They have been an underdog in all 5 games, and they’ve gone 3-2. They upset Denver 24-16 as 3-point home dogs, upset the Colts 31-24 as 6-point road dogs, and upset Chicago 24-21 as 7-point road dogs. They are averaging 4.9 yards per carry on offense behind rookie RB Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr is quietly having a great season. Carr is completing 73.3% of his passes on the year. Jon Gruden is coming up with great game plans week after week and proving that he still has the magic touch as a play caller. The Packers give up 4.9 yards per carry, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. So Jacobs should find plenty of success on the ground. The Raiders are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after leading in their last 2 games by 10-plus points at halftime. Take Oakland. |
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10-19-19 | Tennessee +35 v. Alabama | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 34 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Tennessee/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +35 The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off a huge 47-28 road win at Texas A&M. It was closer than the final score showed as Alabama’s defense was once again porous. Teams can score on this Alabama defense as South Carolina scored 23, Ole Miss scored 31 and Texas A&M scored 28. The Vols will never be close to not covering in this game as massive 35-point dogs. They were only down 15 to Georgia late in the fourth quarter two weeks ago, and last week they upset Mississippi State 20-10 as 5-point home dogs in a dominant effort that was no fluke. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. Alabama is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS win. The road team is 17-6-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take Tennessee. |
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10-19-19 | Kentucky v. Georgia -24.5 | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
7* SEC Game of the Year on Georgia -24.5 The Key: Poor Kentucky. The Wildcats get to be the punching bag that Georgia takes out its frustration on after getting upset by South Carolina last week. The Bulldogs gave away that game by committing 4 turnovers in what was a very fluky loss. Now they take on a Kentucky team that has lost both of its road games in blowout fashion 13-28 at Mississippi State and 7-24 at South Carolina. If they couldn’t hang with those 2 teams on the road, they have no chance of hanging with Georgia. Kentucky is down to a 3rd-string QB who was a former receiver. They can only run the football, making them one-dimensional. That will be easy for Georgia to stop. Georgia only allows 73 RYPG and 2.7 YPC this year. Once Georgia gets up 28-plus, there will be no back door coming because Kentucky doesn’t have a passing game. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Georgia. |
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10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington +3 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Oregon/Washington Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington +3 The Key: The Washington Huskies have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country. I like the price we are getting on the Huskies as home dogs to Oregon Saturday. The Huskies are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year and winning by 19.5 PPG. They are coming off their best performance of the season in a 51-27 road win at Arizona last week. And now they are back home here to take down rival Oregon. The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in road games against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last 3 years. They are losing by 20.0 PPG in this situation. Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Ducks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an ATS win. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Washington. |
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10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +131 | 1-4 | Win | 131 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
6* Astros/Yankees Game 5 *CA$H COW* on New York +131 The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Yankees at home underdogs as they try to stave off elimination for one more game. The Yankees are 54-19 in their last 73 home games, so it’s hard to envision them not winning a single home game in this series. The Yankees are 6-0 in James Paxton’s last 6 home starts as well. Paxton is 7-3 with a 3.48 ERA in his 16 home starts this year. Paxton sports a 3.25 ERA in 15 lifetime starts against the Astros. Take New York. |
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10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -4.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
7* Marshall/FAU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic -4.5 The Key: Many bettors forgot about Florida Atlantic after they were blown out by 2 of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and UCF to open the season. But they’ve gone 4-0 since with 4 double-digit victories. I look for them to win this game by a touchdown or more at home against a Marshall team that has been very disappointing. The Thundering Herd are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS this year. Their 3 wins have come over VMI, Old Dominion and Ohio (by 2) all at home. They lost to a bad Middle Tennessee team 13-24 on the road, were blown out at home by Cincinnati 14-52, and lost 7-14 at Boise State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. Marshall only had 172 total yards against Boise State and gave up 437 yards. The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games. Take Florida Atlantic. |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3.5 The Key: Teams are starting to beat the Chiefs by controlling the ball and the time of possession. They are doing so thanks to a banged up Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run. The Chiefs have yielded 192, 180, 186 and 203 rushing yards in their last 4 games, respectively. The Broncos have rushed for an average of 147 yards in winning each of their last 2 games over the Chargers and Titans. Denver hasn’t lost by more than 2 points in any of its 3 home games this year. This is clearly a game the Broncos can win outright. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and have a big advantage here playing at home on a short week after playing at home against the Titans on Sunday. They don’t have to travel at all. The Chiefs won’t handle playing in the altitude on a short week here on the road very well, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now. Take Denver. |
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10-17-19 | Astros v. Yankees -128 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on New York Yankees -128 The Key: Masahiro Tanaka beat Zack Greinke in Game 1 to cash in the Yankees as nearly +150 underdogs. Tanaka will beat Greinke again in Game 4 here and save the Yankees season. Tanaka is 3-0 with a. 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Tanaka sports a 1.95 ERA in his last 6 starts against the Astros. Greinke is 0-4 with a 6.84 ERA in his last 5 postseason starts. He has yielded 19 runs and 8 homers in 25 innings. The Yankees have won 54 of their last 72 home games. Take New York. |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
7* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +17 The Key: This game just means a lot more to South Alabama than Troy. The Jaguars are looked at the little brother in this rivalry of Alabama schools. But they’ve gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with only one loss by more than 7 points. They pulled two outright upsets 19-8 and 24-18 at Troy as 18 and 6-point dogs in their last two road trips in this series. And their three losses came by 1, 7 and 21 points. This is one of the worst Troy teams we’ve seen in years largely due to head coach Neal Brown leaving the program. They are 2-3 with their only wins coming against Akron and Campbell. South Alabama has kept some games close this season against some good teams, losing by 14 at Nebraska as 35-point dogs, by 13 at Louisiana-Monroe as 13-point dogs and by 3 to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs. They are hungry for their first win against an FBS opponent, and they would love nothing more than for it to come against Troy. The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Trojans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take South Alabama. |
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10-15-19 | Astros v. Yankees +141 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
7* Astros/Yankees Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +141 The Key: If anyone was going to beat Gerrit Cole this season, it would be the Yankees at home. They are 59-24 at home this year. And I would argue they are going with their most talented starter tonight in Luis Severino, who had a huge season last year but has been injured most of this year, so he is under the radar. Severino is 1-1 with a 1.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 4 starts this year, and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 2 home starts. Severino is also 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Yankees, yielding only 2 earned runs in 16 innings. The Yankees are 22-3 in home games off a loss this year, and 14-1 in home games after scoring 2 runs or less this year. Take New York. |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 4 m | Show |
7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3.5 The Key: This line was 6.5 on the lookahead line last week. What has changed since then? Green Bay blew out Dallas 34-24, while Detroit had a bye week. Now this line has moved all the way down to 3.5. The price is now right to pull the trigger on the Packers at home here. No team in the NFL has a bigger home-field advantage than the Packers as their home field is probably worth 4 points. And I have the Packers favored over the Lions on a neutral field, so I have no choice but to lay this short number with them. I think the Lions are grossly overrated this year. They are giving up 406 YPG on defense, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to name his score offensively. The Packers have been great against the pass but poor against the run this year, but the Lions can’t exploit that as they average just 3.9 YPC this season. The Packers are 25-3 SU & 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 home meetings with the Lions and winning by 10 PPG on average. Take Green Bay. |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals +123 v. Nationals | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
6* Cardinals/Nationals Game 3 *CA$H COW* on St. Louis +123 The Key: Jack Flaherty gives the Cardinals hope that they can get back in this series. He takes the ball for Game 3 tonight with the Cardinals trailing 0-2. Flaherty is 12-9 with a 2.75 ERA in 35 starts this year. What he has done in the second half of the season has been unmatched and is deserving of Cy Young consideration. Flaherty sports a 1.13 ERA in his last 18 starts. He has yielded only 15 runs in 119 innings during this stretch. Take St. Louis. |
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10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars -1 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -120 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 2-2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and he has kept them in every game. Minshew has thrown 9 touchdowns against only one interception this year and is completing 67% of his attempts. He has led a suddenly potent Jaguars offense to an average of 481 YPG the last 2 weeks. New Orleans has struggled offensively in its 2 road games this season. The Saints are only averaging 255 YPG on the highway this year. Teddy Bridgewater has been good at home, but not so good on the road. This will be a tough environment for him up against a good Jaguars defense. And life could be even more difficult if the Saints are without Alvin Kamara, who is listed as questionable after missing practice on Friday. Bets on favorites in a game involving two mediocre defensive teams that give up 23-27 PPG, after 2 straight games where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-11 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Jacksonville. |
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10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -4 | 31-24 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Texans/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 The Key: The price is right to back the Kansas City Chiefs this week. They are coming off two straight non-covers against Detroit and Indianapolis, including a shocking upset loss to the Colts last week. Now they are laying only 4 points when this line was expected to be upwards of 8 points as early as last week. I know that the Chiefs have some injury concerns, but Patrick Mahomes is going to play and they could get Tyreke Hill back this week as he has been practicing on a limited basis. I just think the Texans are getting too much respect for their 53-32 home win over the Falcons last week, an Atlanta team that looked like they quit in the second half. Don’t forget they had lost to the Panthers 10-16 and were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 13-12 in recent weeks. Bill O’Brian is 0-7 ATS against good offensive teams that score 29 PPG or more as the coach of the Texans. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. They can’t keep up with the Chiefs in this one. Take Kansas City. |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +2 | 32-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +2 The Key: I also like backing good teams after they get embarrassed. The Browns were thoroughly embarrassed on Monday Night Football on the road against a 49ers team that is looking more and more like one of the best teams in the NFL. Now they are back home and playing with a chip on their shoulder this week. And the Browns should get some key pieces back on defense as both starting CB’s in Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams actually practiced on a limited basis this week. The injury news isn’t as good for the Seahawks, who are expected to be without two starting offensive linemen in G D.J. Fluker and T Duane Brown. The Browns do have a good pass rush led by Myles Garrett, and I expect Russell Wilson to be running for his life. It’s also a letdown spot for the Seahawks off their huge 30-29 home win over the hated Rams last week. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a loss by more than 14 points. The home team is 3-0-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Cleveland. |
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10-12-19 | Hawaii +13 v. Boise State | 37-59 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Hawaii/Boise State MWC *BAILOUT* on Hawaii +13 The Key: Hawaii is 4-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road to Washington. The Warriors also have wins over Arizona, Oregon State and Nevada. How good does that win over Arizona look now? They won that game despite committing 6 turnovers, and Arizona has gone on to win each of its next 4 games since. Now Hawaii is rested off a bye week following its dominant 54-3 ‘upset’ win at Nevada 2 weeks ago. Boise State scored a late touchdown to cover against UNLV last week after returning an onside kick inside UNLV’s 10-yard line. It was a misleading 38-13 final score. I think Boise State is vulnerable, and that showed in 2 home wins over Marshall 14-7 and Air Force 30-19. Both those games went down to the wire, and Hawaii is better than both of those teams. Brian Harsin is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State. Take Hawaii. |
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10-12-19 | Florida v. LSU -13 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
6* Florida/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on LSU -13 The Key: The transformation of this LSU offense can almost exclusively be attributed to getting the passing game coordinator from the New Orleans Saints in the offseason. LSU is scoring 54.6 PPG and putting up 571 YPG on offense. We’ve never seen an LSU offense this potent, and neither has Florida. That’s why I’m willing to lay the big number with the Tigers, especially since this will be one of the best atmospheres in all of college football down in Baton Rouge Saturday night. Florida has a good defense, but hasn’t seen an offense nearly this explosive. The Gators are also 5-0, but they have played Miami, Tennessee-Martin, Kentucky, Tennessee and Auburn. That’s an awful slate of opposing offenses. This is a bad spot for the Gators after their big home win against the frauds of Auburn last week. LSU made easy work of Utah State last week 42-6 and will be rested and ready to go. Florida QB Kyle Trask suffered a knee injury, and now the freshman is banged up and won’t be ready for the atmosphere he’s about to encounter Saturday night. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 conference games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take LSU. |
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10-12-19 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | 7-34 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
6* Nebraska/Minnesota Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +7.5 The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 5-0 this year, but it has come against one of the softest schedules in the country. And it’s worth noting that 4 of Minnesota’s 5 wins have come by 7 points or less. So now the Golden Gophers will be playing the best team they have faced all season in Nebraska, and I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Huskers +7.5. If they want to win the Big Ten West like they were favored to do prior to the season, this is a must-win game for them. I think we get the best effort we’ve seen yet from the Huskers this week as a result. The Huskers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 road games. Take Nebraska. |
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10-12-19 | North Texas v. Southern Miss -3 | 27-45 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show | |
6* North Texas/Southern Miss C-USA *CA$H COW* on Southern Miss -3 The Key: I don’t agree with this line move of Southern Miss from -6 down to -3 this week. The price is right to now pull the trigger on the Golden Eagles. They are a loaded team with 16 returning starters and among my favorites to win Conference USA this year. They are 3-2 with their only losses coming on the road to Mississippi State and Alabama. They also upset Troy on the road. They have played a much more difficult schedule than North Texas, which is 2-3 this season with its only wins over Abilene Christian and UTSA. The 25-46 home loss to Houston last week as 7.5-point favorites was terrible for North Texas. The Mean Green were up against a Houston team that had just decided to redshirt their QB and top WR the previous week. They laid a complete egg and aren’t very good. The Golden Eagles get back their best defensive player from injury at linebacker this week, and he is their leader and quarterback of the defense. North Texas is 1-9 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 years. The Mean Green are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 road games against good offensive teams that average 5.9 YPP or more. The Mean Green are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Take Southern Miss. |
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10-12-19 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida Atlantic -10.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
7* Conference USA Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -10.5 The Key: The FAU Owls were quickly forgotten about after opening 0-2 with losses to Ohio State and UCF. But those are 2 of the best teams in the country, and they actually played Ohio State as tough as anyone has in a 21-45 road loss. They’ve since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS with blowout wins at Ball State 41-31, at home over Wagner 42-7 and at Charlotte 45-27. Now they will beat a bad Middle Tennessee team by double-digits tonight. All three of MTSU’s losses have come by 19 points or more. Their only wins were at home against Tennessee State and Marshall. They only outgained Tennessee State by 138 yards as 26-point favorites and were outgained by 177 yards by Marshall in a misleading final. FAU is refreshed and refocused as it will be returning from its bye week and ready to go this week. The Owls want to avenge a 24-25 road loss at MTSU last year. MTSU is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. The Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Florida Atlantic. |
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10-11-19 | Colorado +21.5 v. Oregon | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
7* Colorado/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado +21.5 The Key: The Oregon Ducks are laying too many points tonight. They haven’t been able to put teams away by big margins. They only beat Montana by 35 as 39.5-point favorites, Stanford by 15 and Cal by 10 in their last 3 games coming in. Colorado is good enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of Oregon. The Buffaloes are 3-2 this season with their 2 losses coming by 7 and 5 points. They beat Nebraska and Arizona State, so they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far. The Buffaloes have the offense to keep up with the Ducks. They are scoring 34.6 PPG overall and 43.0 PPG on the road. They have a veteran QB in Steven Montez who won’t be fazed by playing in Eugene. Montez is completing 67% of his passes for 1,463 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions while averaging 8.3 YPA. Oregon is 0-6 ATS against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last 3 years. Take Colorado. |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
6* Nationals/Cardinals NL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 8 The Key: This game sets up perfectly for an UNDER. Both teams are still hungover from winning Game 5 in the NLCS and the batters will be affected more. It will take some time for players to get into this series, and the pitchers on both teams will be at an advantage in Game 1. But the biggest advantage for the pitchers in this one is the fact that temperatures will be in the 40’s for this game in St. Louis Friday night. Anibal Sanchez sports a 3.48 ERA in 15 road starts this year, and Miles Mikolas sports a 3.01 ERA in 15 home starts. The UNDER is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 playoff road games. The UNDER is 35-16 in Cardinals last 51 home games against a right-handed starter. The UNDER is 9-1-2 in Mikolas’ last 12 starts against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the UNDER. |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
7* Giants/Patriots NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -16.5 The Key: The New England Patriots are 5-0 this season. They are outscoring their opponents by 24.2 PPG on the year so laying 16.5 points isn’t too much with them. They have the No. 1 scoring (6.8 PPG) and total (238 YPG) defense in the NFL this year. The Giants’ offense will be short-handed this week as they will for sure be without Barkley, Gallman and Shepard, and they could be without Engram as well. Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks and he’ll be bringing the heat all game on Daniel Jones. Tom Brady and this New England offense are primed for a big game against the Giants No. 30 defense (409 YPG) Thursday night. The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games. Take New England. |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette -1 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
7* App State/Lafayette Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisiana-Lafayette -1 The Key: This is a rematch from the Sun Belt title game last year. Lafayette lost by 10 at Appalachian State in the regular season and by 11 in the championship game, which was also at App State. Now the Rajin’ Cajuns are playing with double revenge and finally get the Mountaineers at home this year. That will make all the difference. We are going to get a big effort from the Rajin’ Cajuns, who are clearly the better team this year. They are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Mississippi State by 10. The Rajin’ Cajuns are outgaining teams by 195 YPG on the season. Appalachian State is 4-0, but they are only outgaining teams by 9 YPG on the year. And this despite playing the 143rd-ranked schedule in the nation. This will easily be the Mountaineers’ toughest test yet. Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in all games this year and will improve to 6-0 with a win and cover Wednesday. Take LA-Lafayette. |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -102 | 13-1 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
6* Cardinals/Braves Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -102 The Key: Mike Foltynewicz already squared off with Jack Flaherty once in this series. Foltynewicz won Game 2 by a final of 3-0 as he fired 7 shoutout innings, while Flaherty gave up 3 runs in his 7 innings. Foltynewicz now is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Cardinals in 2019 without allowing a single earned run in 13 innings. He has been pithing well for a couple months now. Foltynewicz sports a 1.48 ERA in his last 8 starts and has yielded only 8 earned runs in 48 2/3 innings over this time frame. Flaherty is 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against the Braves. The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 playoff road games. St. Louis is 1-5 in Flaherty’s last 6 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Braves are 14-3 in Foltynewicz’s last 17 starts, and 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. Take Atlanta. |
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10-08-19 | Astros v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
7* Astros/Rays AL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 7.5 The Key: The Astros and Rays combined for 13 runs in Game 3. I think they’ll easily top this 7.5-run total in Game 4 as well. Justin Verlander is vulnerable tonight as he’ll be pitching on 3 days’ rest for the first time this season. And Diego Castillo will be the opener in what will be a bullpen game for the Rays. Castillo is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 starts this year, and 0-0 with a 10.81 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 3 home starts. Castillo is 11-2 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 years. The OVER is 4-0 in Astros last 4 playoff road games. The OVER is 13-3 in Castillo’s last 16 starts. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the OVER. |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +138 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
6* Yankees/Twins AL *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +138 The Key: The Minnesota Twins will be determined to avoid the sweep in Game 3 tonight. They had too good of a season and are too good a team for it to end like that. They should be able to get to the lightly-used Luis Severino, who has only pitched 12 innings all season due to injury. The Yankees won’t extend him too long in this game. Jake Odorizzi is having a great year at 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 30 starts. He has actually done pretty well against the Yankees lifetime with a 1.20 WHIP across 17 starts. Severino has never beaten the Twins as he is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them. Odorizzi is 10-0 after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 2 outings this season. The Yankees are 2-10 in their last 12 playoff road games. The Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter. The Twins are 21-6 in Odorizzi’s last 27 starts. Take Minnesota. |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 41 m | Show |
7* Browns/49ers Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3.5 The Key: The numbers show that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league this year. They ranked Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense, and they are the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat to this point. They are outgaining their opponents by 138 YPG on the year. Now they come off a bye week and will be ultra prepared to face the Browns. And their home fans will be excited to see them as they have played 2 of their first 3 games on the road. Things are looking up for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now that his team has finally remained relatively healthy. The Browns are off a big division win over rival Baltimore last week. I think now oddsmakers are giving them too much respect for that upset victory. The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent. Take San Francisco. |
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10-06-19 | Packers v. Cowboys -3 | 34-24 | Loss | -113 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Packers/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 The Key: The Cowboys got the humbling they needed after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with 3 straight blowout wins to start the season. They lost 10-12 at the Saints last week, and now they should be able to refocus with the Packers coming to town. This is a Packers team they hate and one that has caused them a lot of heartbreak over the last few seasons, especially in the playoffs. And now they get a shot at revenge here. They won’t have to face star WR Devante Adams, who has been ruled out with a toe injury. T Bryan Bulaga is questionable, and RB Jamal Williams is doubtful. This severely hampers a Packers offense that has struggled all season with just 21.2 PPG and 338 YPG. The Cowboys have an elite defense that yields only 14.0 PPG and 318 YPG. Offensively, the Cowboys are rushing for 145 YPG and should be able to shred a Packers defense that gave up gaping holes in the running game to the Eagles last week. The Packers are now allowing 142 RYPG and 5.0 YPC on the season. The Packers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take Dallas. |
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10-06-19 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
6* Braves/Cardinals NL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 8.5 The Key: Adam Wainwright has been dominant at home this season, and Mike Soroka has been dominant on the road. I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the UNDER 8.5 here in Game 3 because of it. Soroka is 7-1 with a 1.55 ERA in 16 road starts. Wainwright is 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA in 16 home starts. Wainwright is 8-0 UNDER as a home dog of +100 or higher over the lsat 3 years. Wainwright is 8-1 UNDER in day games this season. Take the UNDER. |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +6.5 v. Chargers | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Broncos/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Denver +6.5 The Key: The price is right to back the Broncos this week. They are an 0-4 team hungry for their first win of the year. Three of their four losses came by one score, and it would have been all four if not for a missed field goal at Green Bay. That’s why getting 6.5 points here is a nice price. I know the Broncos won’t give up on their first-head head coach in Vic Fangio because players actually like him a lot. They’ll keep fighting, just as they have every week. Now they face a Chargers team that has more injury problems than probably any other team in the league. They are missing Derwin James, Russell Okung, Hunter Henry, Adrian Phillips, Melvin Ingram and Dontrelle Inman. They could be missing Travis Benjamin, Mike Williams, Virginia Green and Michael Badgley, who are all questionable. Their defense is a mess, especially in the secondary, and their offense is missing a ton of key weapons. Joe Flacco hasn’t been horrible as he is completing 66.2% of his passes this year and is primed for his best game of the season. Teams are 0-3 ATS this season after facing the Dolphins. After an easy win against the Dolphins 30-10 in which they pulled away late last week, the Chargers will get more of a fight from the Broncos than they bargained for Sunday. Bets on road teams who are being out-rushed by 40 or more YPG on the season, after being out-rushed by 100 YPG or more last game are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Denver. |
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10-06-19 | Ravens v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 38 h 29 m | Show |
7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers catching points at home is a nice price to pull the trigger on them. Let alone the are catching more than a field goal. They have never been a home underdog of +3.5 or more to the Ravens in this rivalry. And this is a rivalry that is often decided by a field goal or less, having happened 13 of the last 25 times these teams have squared off. The Ravens have been atrocious defensively this year. They are yielding 396 YPG and 7.0 YPP, which ranks last in the NFL. Mason Rudolph finally got on track last week by leading the Steelers to 27 points in a blowout win over the Bengals. He could look even better this week against this soft Ravens defense. There’s no question the Steelers have the better defense, and I always like taking home underdogs when they have the better D. The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 matchups. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-05-19 | Tulsa v. SMU UNDER 64.5 | 37-43 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Tulsa/SMU *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 64.5 The Key: Both Tulsa and SMU have good defenses this season, and it’s going to be hard to envision them combining to score 65 points or more to beat us with this UNDER Saturday. Tulsa is giving up 26.2 PPG against a gauntlet of a schedule that has featured Michigan State and Oklahoma State. SMU is allowing 26.6 PPG against an also tough schedule that has featured some good offenses in Arkansas State, North Texas and TCU. SMU has 25 sacks this season, and Tulsa gets sacked 4 times per game. Tulsa’s offense is mustering up only 21.5 PPG this year. SMU will be able to stop them, and I think Tulsa will hold SMU to its lowest point total yet this season. This was a 27-24 game for 51 combined points when these teams met last year. Tulsa is 9-0 UNDER in the first half o the season over the last 2 years. SMU is 6-0 UNDER in October games over the last 3 years. Tulsa is 7-0 UNDER when up against a team that wins more than 75% of their games over the last 3 years. Tulsa is 9-1 UNDER against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more YPP over the last 3 years. Take the UNDER. |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +21 v. Ohio State | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +21 The Key: The Michigan State Spartans just have a way of playing to their competition. That’s why you should almost never lay big points with them, but you should certainly look to back them in the underdog role. This is a classic Mark Dantonio game where the Spartans will come close to beating Ohio State, if not pull off the upset. The Buckeyes are coming off a huge win at Nebraska with ESPN’s College Gameday on site. This is definitely a letdown spot for them now. And the Buckeyes are 5-0 and have covered 4 straight coming in, so the price is getting too steep to back them now. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS off 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years. They are actually losing in this spot outright by 2.5 PPG. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Michigan State. |
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10-05-19 | Rice v. UAB UNDER 44.5 | 20-35 | Loss | -117 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
6* Conference USA *Total* Annihilator on Rice/UAB UNDER 44.5 The Key: It’s hard to see where the points are going to come from in this matchup between two very bad offensive teams in Rice and UAB. Rice is scoring just 14.8 PPG and averaging 282 YPG. UAB is scoring 25.7 PPG and averaging 376 YPG. UAB has another great defense this year as they are giving up just 15.5 PPG. Rice’s defense is improved with 29.4 PPG allowed against a tough schedule of Army, Wake Forest, Texas, Baylor and LA Tech. Both teams prefer to run the ball as UAB averages 41 rushing attempts per game and only 26 pass attempts. Rice also prefers to run the ball with 36 rushing attempts per game and only 26 passing attempts, which speaks volumes about their offensive strategy considering they have been trailing all season. That will keep the clock moving. UAB is 8-0 UNDER in October games over the last 3 years. UAB is 6-0 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Owls last 8 conference games. The UNDER is 13-4 in Blazers last 17 conference games. The UNDER is 7-2 in Blazers last 9 home games. Take the UNDER. |
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10-05-19 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +11 | Top | 38-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Year on Georgia Tech +11 The Key: This is the ultimate flat spot for the UNC Tar Heels. They came up just a 2-point conversion short of upsetting Clemson last week. Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and face a Georgia Tech team that is 1-3 on the season. They won’t be interested at all in this game. The Tar Heels are extra defeated right now after losing 3 straight games by 6 points or less after winning their first 2 games by 4 points or fewer. So all 5 of their games have been decided by 6 points or less, and this one will go down to the wire as well. Georgia Tech now had 4 games under its belt in the new schemes under Geoff Collins, who arrived from Temple. And that loss to Temple last week was far from the 24-2 blowout it appeared. The Yellow Jackets were only outgained by 18 yards by the Owls on the road but committed 3 costly turnovers. Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings. Take Georgia Tech. |
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10-05-19 | South Florida v. Connecticut +11.5 | 48-22 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
6* Saturday AAC *CA$H COW* on Connecticut +11.5 The Key: The South Florida Bulls have to be close to firing head coach Charlie Strong. A loss to UConn on the road Saturday would do the trick. The Bulls are 1-3 this season with a 49-0 blowout home loss to Wisconsin and a 21-48 blowout home loss to SMU. They trailed SMU 41-0 last week before scoring 3 late touchdowns. They also lost to Georgia Tech on the road, and their only win came against South Carolina State at home. They only outgained South Carolina State by 83 yards in that game but benefitted from forcing 8 turnovers, which resulted in a misleading final. I don’t think they’re that much better than UConn. The Huskies were blown out not he road by Indiana and UCF, but that’s to be expected. They beat Wagner at home and only lost to Illinois by 8 as 21-point dogs in their 2 home games this year. Randy Edsall has this team fighting and their are definitely improved over last year, when they only lost 30-38 at South Florida as 33.5-point dogs. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off 2 consecutive road losses. Take Connecticut. |
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10-04-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
6* Nationals/Dodgers NL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 7.5 The Key: Runs will be hard to come by again tonight for the Dodgers and Nationals. These are two elite starting rotations when you have Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw as your No. 2 starters. Strasburg is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 33 starts this year. Kershaw is 16-5 with a 3.10 ERA in 28 starts. Strasburg sports a 2.66 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against the Dodgers. Kershaw sports a 2.65 ERA in 18 lifetime starts against the Nationals. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 games against a left-handed starter. The UNDER is 17-6-1 in Strasburg’s last 24 road starts against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Dodgers last 11 playoff home games. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the UNDER. |
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10-04-19 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati +4.5 The Key: Cincinnati has played a schedule that is almost two times as hard as that of UCF to this point. I like that they’ve been tested early and are 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to powerhouse Ohio State. UCF is 4-1, but they lost on the road to Pittsburgh, a team that lost badly to Virginia and barely beat FCS Delaware by a field goal last week. If Pittsburgh can knock them off, there’s no question Cincinnati can. I love home underdogs in weeknight games because the atmosphere is electric, and it will be a Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati Friday night as well. This Bearcats defense will be the best stop unit that UCF has seen yet this season. They are giving up just 20.7 PPG and 297 YPG this year. Take Cincinnati. |
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10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
6* Nationals/Dodgers NL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 7.5 The Key: Runs will be hard to come by between the Dodgers and Nationals with the two starters going tonight. Pat Corbin is 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 33 starts this year. Corbin is 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Dodgers. Walker Buehler is 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 30 starts this year. Buehler is 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA at home this year. He sports a 2.92 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Nationals. He fired 7 shutout innings in his lone home start against the Nationals this year. The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Dodgers last 10 playoff home games. The UNDER is 34-13-5 in Dodgers last 52 home games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 11-0-2 in Buehler’s last 13 home starts against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER. |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks -115 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle PK The Key: The Los Angeles Rams just gave up 55 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs Sunday. Their defense is gassed, and their offense may be even more tired after trying to come back from a 21-0 deficit. Now they have to play on a short week here and travel to Seattle Thursday night. The Seahawks will have plenty left in the tank after beating the Cardinals 27-10 on the road last week. The Seahawks want to avenge 2 losses to the Rams by a combined 7 points last year. I believe the Seahawks have the better team this year with all they added in the offseason compared to all the Rams lost. Los Angeles has a terrible offensive line and can’t get a consistent run game going. Jared Goff is under constant pressure, which helps explain why he had just 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through 4 games. Take Seattle. |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
7* Rays/A’s AL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 7.5 The Key: Two elite starters go at it tonight followed by two elite bullpens in this wild card game. The end result will be a pitcher’s duel and UNDER 7.5 combined runs. Charlotte Morton is 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 33 starts this year for the Rays. Morton is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against the A’s, including 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA in 2 starts against them in 2019 while yielding only one earned run in 13 1/3 innings. Sean Manaea is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 5 starts this year. Manaea is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Rays. The UNDER is 6-0 in A’s last 6 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in A’s last 6 playoff home games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Manaea’s last 6 starts. The UNDER is 4-1 in Rays’ last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Oakland. Take the UNDER. |
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10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals -174 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
7* Brewers/Nationals NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington -174 The Key: The Nationals come into the postseason with all the momentum and a real chance to win a World Series with their combination of starting pitching, a revamped bullpen and a great lineup. I expect them to handle their business here in the wild card against the Brewers and improve to 9-0 in their last 9 games overall. The Brewers are 0-3 in their last 3 games overall, which has to have given their confidence a hit because all 3 were meaningful games in Colorado with the NL Central title at stake. Max Scherzer sports a 2.92 ERA in 27 starts this year and a 1.80 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against the Brewers. I trust in him to get the job done over Brandon Woodruff, who has a 4.41 ERA in 9 road starts and a 5.14 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Washington. |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
7* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -3 The Key: The Bengals have a banged up defense that is soft as butter. They have allowed an average of 494 YPG to a couple of mediocre offenses the last 2 weeks in the 49ers and Bills. The Steelers will get their ground game going against the Bengals, who allow 169 RYPG and 4.9 YPC. And the Steelers will slow down Andy Dalton and company, who clearly miss AJ Green at receiver. They also have several offensive linemen banged up, so the Steelers should be able to get after Dalton. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
7* Cowboys/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +3 The Key: The Cowboys should not be favored on the road over the Saints in the dome Sunday night. The Cowboys have taken advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL with games against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, who are a combined 1-8. The Saints have played one of the toughest schedule against the Texans, Rams and Seahawks, who are a combined 7-2. Two of those games were on the road. The Saints are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better on the season. Take New Orleans. |
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09-29-19 | Vikings v. Bears -112 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
6* Vikings/Bears NFC North *CA$H COW* on Chicago ML -112 The Key: I look at the Vikings and Bears as almost mirror images of one another. They both have mediocre offenses and great defenses. That’s why getting the Bears at a pick ‘em at home is a value play Sunday. The Bears won both meetings with the Vikings last year and terrorized Kirk Cousins in the process. They won 25-20 at home and held the Vikings to 268 total yards. They won 24-10 on the road and held the Vikings to just 164 total yards. The Bears had over 300 yards of offense in both wins, so they were able to figure out Minnesota’s defense. Chicago is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games against a good rushing team that averages 5.0 YPC or more. The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. The Bears are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record. The Bears are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 home games. The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the NFC North. Take Chicago. |
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09-29-19 | Reds v. Pirates +109 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Pittsburgh Pirates +109 The Key: The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games overall and closing the season strong. I don’t believe they should be home dogs to the Reds today. Trevor Williams has never lost to the Reds, going 5-0 with a 1.94 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against them. Tyler Mahle is 2-12 with a 5.42 ERA in 24 starts this year for the Reds and 0-1 with a 9.26 ERA in his last 3 outings. Mahle has never beaten the Pirates, going 0-3 (0-5 ML) with a 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-29-19 | Patriots v. Bills +7.5 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
6* Patriots/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7.5 The Key: The Bills finally have a team that can handle the Patriots and end this series domination that New England has held over them for years. Josh Allen has improved by leaps and bounds this season, and he finally has some weapons. The Bills have averaged 391 YPG thus far. But what really gives them a chance to pull this upset is a defense that is just as good as last year after dominating last season. The Bills are only allowing 15.7 PPG and 300 YPG. The Patriots are really banged up on offense and have taken advantage of an easy schedule thus far against the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets, who are a combined 0-9. Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who average 27 or more PPG, after allowing 14 or less points in 2 straight games are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Buffalo. |
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09-28-19 | Hawaii v. Nevada -2 | Top | 54-3 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season. They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno. Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada. Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps. And this game will be played in altitude. Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG. Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday. Take Nevada. |
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09-28-19 | Cincinnati v. Marshall +4 | 52-14 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Marshall +4 The Key: Cincinnati was exposed in its 42-0 road loss at Ohio State. The Bearcats should not even be favored in this game. Marshall’s only loss came on the road at Boise State as 14-point dog in a 7-point loss. The Thundering Herd gave the Broncos all they could handle. Luke Fickell is 2-11 ATS off a home win in all games he has coached. Doc Holliday is 6-0 ATS against AAC opponents as the coach of Marshall. The Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Thundering Herd are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Marshall. |
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09-28-19 | Ole Miss +38.5 v. Alabama | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss +38.5 The Key: The Ole Miss Rebels have been a punching bag for the Alabama Crimson Tide the last 2 seasons. But they are finally in a position to put up a fight in 2019. They brought in Rich Rodriquez to be their offensive coordinator, and they also brought in Mike MacIntyre to be their defensive coordinator. The Rebels could easily be 4-0 but they are just 2-2 right now, which has them undervalued. They only lost by 5 at Memphis and by 8 at home to Cal. They were stopped inside the 1 from forcing OT against Cal and put up over 500 yards against their vaunted defense. Bets against favorites of 31.5 or more points off a home win, with a winning record on the season are 29-7 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Ole Miss. |
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09-27-19 | A's -1.5 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Oakland A’s -1.5 (-123) The Key: The A’s can move closer to clinching a wild card with a win over the Mariners on Friday. The Mariners have lost 4 straight and have scored a combined 2 runs in those 4 games, an average of just 0.5 RPG. Mike Fiers is 15-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts for the A’s this year and should shut down the Mariners. Justus Sheffield is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 6 starts for the Mariners, and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 home starts this year. Fiers is 14-0 against an AL team with an OBP of .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 years. Fiers is 12-0 as a road favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 years. The A’s are winning by 3.7 RPG in this situation. Take Oakland on the Run Line. |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight. They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke. Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game. Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight. The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Virginia Tech. |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
7* Eagles/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +4.5 The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles need this win more. They are 1-2 and have failed to cover the spread in all 3 games despite not once losing by more than 4 points. The Packers are not only 3-0 straight up but also 3-0 against the spread. I think oddsmakers are giving them too much respect tonight. The Eagles get some key players back from injury, while the Packers have lost some key players to injury since Sunday. Bets against favorites who are off a home win in the first month of the season are 78-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-26-19 | Indians -1.5 v. White Sox | 0-8 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-117) The Key: The Indians are now 1.5 games out of the wild card after losing yesterday. Due to their advantage on the rubber in this one, they will bounce back in blowout fashion against the Chicago White Sox Thursday night. Aaron Civale is 3-3 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 9 starts this year. Dylan Cease is 4-7 with a 5.67 ERA in 14 starts, and 2-4 with a 6.55 ERA in 7 home starts. The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 against a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 40-11 in its last 51 against a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland on the Run Line. |
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09-25-19 | Yankees v. Rays -142 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
7* AL East Game of the Year on Tampa Bay Rays -142 The Key: That Tampa Bay Rays are the 2nd wild card right now, but 0.5 games behind the A’s and 0.5 games ahead of the Indians. They need to keep winning just to get into the postseason. The Yankees have already clinched the division and aren’t likely to catch the Astros for the top seed. They don’t need wins right now, and it’s showing. The Yankees are just 5-5 in their last 10 games overall, while the Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 contests. The Rays have the clear advantage on the rubber tonight with Charlie Morton, who is 15-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 32 starts, and 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA in 16 home starts. Jonathan Loaisiga is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 3 starts for the Yankees. The Yankees are 4-19 as a road dog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 years. New York is 0-4 in Loaisiga’s last 4 starts. The Rays are 6-0 in Morton’s last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay. |
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09-23-19 | Bears -3.5 v. Redskins | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 102 h 50 m | Show |
7* Bears/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5 The Key: The Bears are head and shoulders the better team in this matchup with the Washington Redskins Monday Night. They should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this game. The Bears haven’t gotten their offense going yet, but they will here against a Redskins defense that has yielded 31.5 PPG and 455 YPG this season. And the Bears still have an elite defense after leading the league in basically every major defensive category last year. Chicago is giving up just 12 PPG and 292.5 YPG this year. Not to mention, the Redskins are giving up 6.8 YPP, while the Bears are yielding just 4.6 YPP. The Bears will shutdown this suspect Washington offense, and Mitchell Trubisky will finally make some plays for the Bears and lead them to a big road win to get to 2-1 on the season while dropping the Redskins to 0-3 in the process. Take Chicago. |
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09-23-19 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Monday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Marlins/Mets UNDER 8.5 The Key: I can’t see the Marlins and Mets being able to do much offensively in this game. Steven Matz is 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 13 home starts for the Mets this year. Caleb Smith has been the Marlins’ best starter, going 9-10 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 26 starts. Smith is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against the Mets. Matz is 4-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against the Marlins. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Mets last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Matz’s last 9 starts against the Marlins. Take the UNDER. |
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09-22-19 | Jets +23 v. Patriots | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Month on New York Jets +23 The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL. This week there are 2 of those teams. Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Jets are going to stay within the number here against the Patriots. The Patriots are the definition of overvalued right now after covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first 2 games against the Steelers and Dolphins. This is a division game against the Jets, so there is familiarity. That favors the Jets to keep this game closer than expected. And I like what I saw from Luke Falk on Monday Night Football against the Browns. Falk was 20 of 25 passing for 198 yards in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian. Now that he’s preparing to be the starter all week he should be comfortable. Le’Veon Bell showed he’s still a workhorse with 68 rushing yards and 10 receptions for 61 yards in the loss. Bets against favorites who are off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983. Take New York. |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins +23 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 37 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami Dolphins +23 The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL. This week there are 2 of those teams. Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Dolphins are going to stay within the number here against the Cowboys. The Dolphins have played 2 of the best teams in the NFL both at home in the Ravens and Patriots. I actually think they will be a better road bet than a home bet this season. There’s so much negativity in Miami media right now that it can only do them good to get on the road and get away from it. I have a feeling the Cowboys aren’t going to show up with the focus they need to put Miami away by more than 3 touchdowns. They’ve also heard the negativity, and they are overvalued coming in off 2 straight division wins over the Giants and Redskins, 2 of the worst teams in the NFL. Jason Garrett is 18-33 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys. Garrett is 7-17 ATS in home games off a division game as the coach of Dallas. Bets against home favorites a good offensive team from last year averaging 5.4 YPP or more, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-11 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Miami. |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show | |
6* Ravens/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore +7 The Key: It’s expected to be a sloppy field in Kansas City Sunday with rain in the forecast Friday, Saturday and Sunday. That favors the better running team, which is clearly the Ravens. They are averaging 223 rushing yards per game and 5.7 YPC thus far in 2019. The Ravens rushed for 198 yards on 39 carries against the Chiefs last year in their 24-27 loss at Arrowhead Stadium. They want revenge from that defeat. The Ravens are a much more dynamic offensive team this year as Lamar Jackson has already thrown 7 touchdown passes, and he is fitting the ball into tight windows when he needs to. New coordinator Greg Roman has experience with these dual-threat QB’s as he guided Colin Kaepernick nearly to a Super Bowl in San Francisco and Tyrod Taylor to the playoffs in Buffalo. Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a home win are 34-10 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Baltimore. |
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09-21-19 | Western Michigan +5.5 v. Syracuse | 33-52 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
6* WMU/Syracuse NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +5.5 The Key: This is a clear flat spot for the Syracuse Orange. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Maryland (by 43) and Clemson (by 35). After facing Clemson last week in a big night game, there’s no way they will get up for Western Michigan this week. Syracuse is one of the most overrated teams in the country as you can see with those 2 blowout losses. Western Michigan has been impressive and may be the best team in the MAC. Their only loss came on the road against Michigan State, and they beat Monmouth by 35 and Georgia State by 47 at home. That’s the same Georgia State team that upset Tennessee on the road earlier this year. It’s a veteran WMU bunch that returned 17 starters this year. Bets against home favorites after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in 2 straight games are 35-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons. WMU is rushing for 208 YPG and 5.8 YPC this season, and Syracuse is giving up 190 YPG and 5.3 YPC this year. Take Western Michigan. |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe +19 v. Iowa State | 20-72 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
6* ULM/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +19 The Key: Iowa State is deflated following its 17-18 home loss to rival Iowa in the Cy-Hawk series last week. The Cyclones have their Big 12 opener on deck next week against Baylor. That makes this a sandwich game for them. The Cyclones won’t be fully up for this game against Louisiana-Monroe. It’s a good spot for the Warhawks as they are coming off a bye week following a 44-45 (OT) loss at Florida State. That game showed their potential as they nearly upset the Seminoles as 23-point road dogs. And they know they have what it takes to compete with Iowa State now. I think the field conditions at Iowa State will favor the underdog here as it’s supposed to be sloppy with rain in the forecast the next several days leading up to the game. We saw last year Iowa State nearly lose to Drake as more than a 40-point favorite in sloppy conditions. Take Louisiana-Monroe. |
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09-21-19 | California v. Ole Miss -2.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 4 m | Show |
7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago. Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears. I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline. I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss. The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener. And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively. Take Ole Miss. |
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09-20-19 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-160) The Key: The Dodgers have a huge advantage over the Rockies on the rubber tonight. Ace Clayton Kershaw is 14-5 with a 3.10 ERA in 26 starts this year, and 9-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 15 home starts. Kershaw is 22-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 41 lifetime starts against the Rockies. Peter Lambert is 3-6 with a 6.98 ERA in 18 starts for Colorado, and 1-1 with a 9.25 ERA in his last 3 outings. Lambert is 0-1 with an 11.11 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against the Dodgers. The Rockies are 3-13 in Lambert’s last 16 starts, and 0-7 in his last 7 road starts. The Dodgers are 92-32 in Kershaw’s last 124 starts, and 45-12 in his last 57 home starts. Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. |
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09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season. This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC. These teams already have a common opponent in BYU. Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30. Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role. Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits. The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG. Take Utah. |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +2 The Key: Gardner Minshew has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL thus far. He has completed 77.6% of his passes and is averaging 8.4 YPA this season. The Jaguars finally get a break on the schedule here with the Titans coming to town after facing the Chiefs at home and Texans on the road. This is a game they must win to stay in the playoff hunt as they cannot afford to fall to 0-3. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane -4.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Houston/Tulane AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulane -4.5 The Key: Tulane looks like a real contender in the AAC. They have an improved offense in their new spread option look, and their defense is one of the best int he conference. Tulane is averaging 35.3 PPG and giving up just 14.7 PPG this year. And that includes games against two very good teams in Auburn and FIU. Houston has a leaky defense, and that is going to be the difference in this game. And D’Eriq King doesn’t look as good in Dana Holgorsen’s offense as he did in their offense last year. Tulane is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games off a win by 28 points or more. The Green Wave are 7-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years. Take Tulane. |
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09-19-19 | Tigers v. Indians -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-170) The Key: The Indians are 17-1 against the Tigers this season with 16 of those 17 wins coming by multiple runs. Expect more of the same here thanks to their advantage on the rubber tonight. Mike Clevinger is 11-3 with a 2.68 ERA in 18 starts this year, and 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 9 home starts. Clevinger is 7-2 with a 1.88 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against the Tigers, and 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA in his last 3 starts against them with only one run yielded in 20 innings. Daniel Norris is 0-1 with a 7.81 ERA in 2 road starts at Cleveland this year. Norris is 2-5 with a. 4.65 ERA in 16 road starts this season. Take Cleveland on the Run Line. |
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09-18-19 | Tigers v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-150) The Key: The Cleveland Indians are now 16-1 against the Detroit Tigers this season. They have won 15 straight over the Tigers with all 15 wins coming by at least 2 runs. The Indians have a huge advantage on the rubber over the Tigers today. Aaron Civale is 3-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.06 ERA in 3 home starts. Civale is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 2 starts against the Tigers this year. Spencer Turnbull is 3-15 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 27 starts for the Tigers, including 0-2 with an 11.11 ERA in his last 3 outings. Turnbull has never beaten the Indians, going 0-5 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them. Take Cleveland on the Run Line. |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
7* Browns/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 The Key: The Jets are going to try to shorten this game by giving the ball to Le’Veon Bell as much as possible. They brought him in to be their workhorse, and now with Sam Darnold out, they will ride him. Trevor Siemian will be making short throws and just trying not to turn the ball over. They will have a conservative game plan, just as they did last week in their 16-17 home loss to the Bills that saw only 33 combined points. The Jets also have a nice advantage defensively as defensive coordinator Greg Williams held the same position with the Browns last year and knows Freddie Kitchens’ offense. The Browns have a terrible offensive line, and the Jets should be able to exploit it by bringing pressure all game long. All of these factors favor a low scoring game. Not to mention UNDERS are 12-3 this week as offenses just aren’t clicking this early in the season. Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Bets on the UNDER on any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 30-9 over the last 10 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Browns last 10 games off a double-digit home loss. Take the UNDER. |
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09-16-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-8 | Win | 115 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+115) The Key: The Chicago Cubs have reeled off 4 straight wins to pull within 2 games of the Cardinals for 1st place in the NL Central. They just scored a total of 47 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Pirates over the weekend. To say they are clicking right now offensively would be an understatement. I’ll back them on the Run Line today at home against the Cincinnati Reds. Cole Hamels is 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 home starts this year. Hamels is 12-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 20 lifetime starts against the Reds, and his teams are 18-2 in those starts. Kevin Gausman is 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA in 16 starts this year and 1-4 with a 6.82 ERA in 7 road starts. Gausman is 0-1 with a 12.38 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Cubs. Take Chicago on the Run Line. |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
7* Eagles/Falcons NFC *BAILOUT* on Atlanta +2 The Key: The Atlanta Falcons did themselves in last week by committing 3 turnovers against the Vikings. They just couldn’t get out of their own way. The final stats outside the turnovers were actually in their favor. They had 345 total yards and held the Vikings to just 269 total yards. Now back home, look for the Falcons to play with a sense of urgency to avoid falling to 0-2. They will be much sharper, and you’ll see their offense live up to their potential, which is massive with all the weapons they have. The Eagles gave up 27 points and 398 total yards to a bad Redskins offense last week. Matt Ryan is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in home openers since coming into the league. Take Atlanta. |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals +13 v. Ravens | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Cardinals/Ravens Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +13 The Key: This line was Baltimore -9.5 last week. But the betting public is now overreacting to the Ravens’ blowout of the league-worst Dolphins last week. So this line has moved up to the point where there’s definitely value on the Cardinals. I liked seeing what Kyler Murray could do in the 2nd half last week against the Lions in leading the Cardinals back from an 18-point deficit. They went hurry up and will do more of the same this week to utilize Murray’s strengths and try and tire out Baltimore’s defense. This Baltimore defense isn’t nearly as good as it was last year with all the studs they lost in free agency. And they are without 2 starting cornerbacks due to injury, which is a recipe for disaster against an Arizona offense that likes to spread out the opposition. Lamar Jackson won’t be nearly as good as he was in Week 1 as he is still limited as a passer, which will make it hard for the Ravens to win by margin. Take Arizona. |
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09-15-19 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Jaguars/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +9.5 The Key: This line was Texans -3 last week. Then Nick Foles got hurt and the Jaguars lost by 14 at home to the Chiefs. I can forgive them for that loss. But the betting public doesn’t seem to be forgiving them. And they aren’t seeming to give backup QB Gardner Minshew any credit for going 22 for 25 passing against the Chiefs for 275 yards. It was as good a performance as I’ve seen from a backup QB coming in for an injured starter in a long time. He’ll have plenty of success against a bad Houston defense that gave up over 500 yards to the Saints last week. The Jaguars will be much better defensively this week than they were against the Chiefs and should be able to get to Deshaun Watson, who was sacked more than any QB in the NFL last year and 6 times in Week 1. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-14-19 | A's -119 v. Rangers | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
6* AL West *CA$H COW* on Oakland A’s -119 The Key: The Oakland A’s have won 4 straight and 9 of their last 11 as they try and hold onto a wild card spot in the American League. They are hitting the cover off the ball right now with 43 runs scored in their last 4 games. Not even Mike Minor will slow them down today. I think we’re getting the A’s pretty cheap here. Mike Fiers is 14-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 30 starts this year and has been one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball. Fiers is 11-0 against an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 years. The A’s are 8-0 in Fiers’ last 8 starts against a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 7-20 in their last 27 against a team with a winning record. Texas is 1-7 in Minor’s last 8 home starts against a team with a winning record. Take Oakland. |
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09-14-19 | TCU -1 v. Purdue | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
6* TCU/Purdue NCAAF *CA$H COW* on TCU -1 The Key: Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar is leading the nation in passing through 2 games. He suffered a concussion against Vanderbilt and is questionable to play this week. Even if he goes, he won’t be 100%. You can bet TCU head coach Gary Patterson will have his team ready for Purdue’s spread system. The Horned Frogs are coming off a bye week and consistently have one of the best defenses in the Big 12. They see many offenses in the Big 12 that are similar to Purdue, which also helps. Purdue is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Take TCU. |
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09-14-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
6* FSU/Virginia ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia -7 The Key: Fans of the Virginia Cavaliers are excited about this team. They are coming off an 8-5 season in which they nearly won the Coastal. And they have 14 starters back from that squad including QB Perkins, who is probably the 2nd-best QB in the ACC. This is a night game in Charlottesville which will mean that fans will be more boisterous than normal, especially with a program the caliber of Florida State coming to town. But these aren’t the same old Seminoles. They went 5-7 last year and are fortunate to not be 0-2 this year. They lost to Boise State at home and needed overtime to be Louisiana Monroe as a 23-point favorite. The Seminoles have one of the worst defenses in the country in allowing 40 PPG and 520 YPG. Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country giving up 15.5 PPG and 228 YPG. Willie Taggart is 0-7 ATS off a home games as the coach of the Seminoles. Take Virginia. |
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09-14-19 | Texas State v. SMU OVER 62 | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Texas State/SMU OVER 62 The Key: We have two offensive minds going at it here in Jake Spavital of Texas State and Sonny Dykes of SMU. This should be a shootout. Dykes got a huge transfer in Shane Buechele from Texas and he is off to a great start this season. SMU’s offense is averaging 43.0 PPG and 505 YPG in its first 2 victories over a couple of quality Arkansas State and North Texas teams. Texas State should finally get its offense going after being held down by 2 very good defenses in Texas A&M and Wyoming. SMU’s defense is sub par to say the least in allowing 28.5 PPG and 405 YPG thus far. Dykes is 15-5 OVER as a home favorite lifetime as a head coach. The OVER is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 non-conference games. Take the OVER. |
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09-14-19 | Southern Miss v. Troy -2.5 | 47-42 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
6* Southern Miss/Troy NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Troy -2.5 The Key: Troy had a bye last week following its 43-14 win over Campbell in the opener. Now they have 2 weeks to get ready for Southern Miss. The Eagles are coming off a 15-38 loss at Mississippi State and it will be hard for them to be as hungry for this game as they were with that opportunity to face an SEC school. It was also a physical game that would have taken a lot out of them. Troy is one of the best Sun Belt programs there is as they are in title contention almost every year. And they have 13 starters back for new head coach Chip Lindsey. The Trojans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win. Troy is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. Take Troy. |
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09-14-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa. It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice. I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win. Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final. Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both. Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog. Take Iowa State. |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston +9.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State. The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado. This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston. This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener. They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston. D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score. Take Houston. |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
7* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -6.5 The Key: Jameis Winston has now lost 9 straight road starts as the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Winston was awful in his first start under Bruce Arians, who was supposed to be his savior. He threw 3 interceptions and 2 of them were returned for touchdowns in their 17-31 home loss to the 49ers. Cam Newton has been great at home as they had won 10 straight home games with him under center before getting injured last year with his shoulder. He is back healthy this year and coming off a decent start against the Rams in a tough 27-30 loss. I trust Newton and the Panthers to bounce back at home tonight. The Panthers beat the Bucs 42-28 at home last year. They outgained the Bucs by 106 yards in that game and outgained them by 129 yards in a fluky losing effort in Tampa Bay last year. Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of the Panthers. Take Carolina. |
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09-12-19 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +138 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Thursday MLB *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays +141 The Key: The Boston Red Sox are starting to realize that they have no shot of making the postseason, and they are playing like it. The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall. They were held to 1, 0 and 0 runs in 3 of the losses and have only scored a combined 9 runs in those 5 games. Jhoulys Chacin is 3-10 with a 5.66 ERA in 20 starts this season, 1-9 with a 7.25 ERA in 10 road starts, and 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in his last 3 outings. Clay Buchholz is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA in 3 home starts this year, and 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Blue Jays. Take Toronto. |
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09-11-19 | Indians -130 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Month on Cleveland Indians -130 The Key: The Cleveland Indians are fighting for a wild card in the American League. There is only 2 games separating 3 teams fighting for 2 spots with the Rays and A’s also in the mix. The Indians have handled their business against the Angels winning 6-2 and 8-0 in the first two games of this series, and they should sweep it tonight. The Angels are 4-14 in their last 18 games overall, and they’ve been playing with Mike Trout of late due to injury. Cleveland starter Adam Plutko is 6-4 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 16 starts this year. Los Angeles starter Dillon Peters is 2-2 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 8 starts. The Indians are 7-1 in Plutko’s last 8 starts against a team with a losing record. The Indians are 23-4 in the last 27 meetings. Take Cleveland. |
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09-10-19 | Nationals v. Twins -144 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Week on Minnesota Twins -144 The Key: The Minnesota Twins are hungry to win the AL Central. The Washington Nationals are kind of stuck in no man’s land right now as they are likely to get the 1st wild card, but they can’t win the division. The Nationals have lost 4 of their last 5 games coming in. Jose Berrios is the better starter in this matchup with a 3.78 ERA in 28 starts this year, and a 3.62 ERA in 12 home starts. Anibal Sanchez has a 4.11 ERA in 26 starts for the Nationals. He gave up 7 runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of a 4-8 loss to the Mets in his last turn. The Twins are 51-17 in their last 68 games against a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The Twins are 40-16 in their last 56 games off a loss. Take Minnesota. |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
7* Broncos/Raiders ESPN *BAILOUT* on Oakland +2.5 The Key: This line indicates that the Broncos would be roughly 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field. I’m not buying it, and I think these are two evenly matched teams this year. The Broncos have the better defense, but the Raiders clearly have the better offense, and it’s not really even close. Oakland should have beaten Denver in each of the last 3 meetings. They won at home 21-14 in 2017 and 27-14 in 2018, including an upset win as a home dog last year. And they only lost 19-20 in Denver as 5.5-point underdogs last year. They have had the Broncos’ number. Now the Raiders should be much improved in Year 2 under Gruden, while the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach in Vic Fangio. The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 division games. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Oakland. |