Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-21-17 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-110) |
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07-15-17 | Indians -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-115) |
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07-09-17 | Tigers v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
7* Tigers/Indians ESPN *BAILOUT* on Cleveland -1.5 (-105) |
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07-01-17 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
7* AL East Game of the Month on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100) |
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06-27-17 | Phillies v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Week on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+115) |
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06-20-17 | Angels v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
7* AL Run Line Game of the Month on New York Yankees -1.5 (-135) |
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06-12-17 | Phillies v. Red Sox -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-113) |
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05-29-17 | A's v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-120) |
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05-26-17 | Royals v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+120) |
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05-13-17 | Phillies v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 125 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+125) |
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05-02-17 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105) |
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04-20-17 | Phillies v. Mets -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Mets -1.5 (+125) |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs -1.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
6* Indians/Cubs World Series *CA$H COW* on Chicago -1.5 (+109) |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
6* Indians/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -1.5 (+115) |
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10-15-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 116 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago -1.5 (+116) |
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09-27-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-104) |
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09-26-16 | Brewers v. Rangers -1.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+107) |
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09-07-16 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-132) |
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08-29-16 | Nationals -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-118) |
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08-27-16 | Phillies v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 115 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on New York Mets -1.5 (+115) |
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08-08-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+109) |
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08-05-16 | Braves v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-106) |
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08-02-16 | Twins v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+100) |
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08-01-16 | Nationals -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-116) |
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07-29-16 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105) |
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07-26-16 | Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-114) |
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07-25-16 | Padres v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-125) |
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07-23-16 | Twins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-125) |
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06-28-16 | Cubs -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-140) |
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06-27-16 | Cubs -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-145) |
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06-20-16 | Giants -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-110) |
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05-04-16 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+115) |
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05-03-16 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 118 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+118) |
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04-11-16 | Braves v. Nationals -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-109) |
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09-27-15 | Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB Sunday *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-104) |
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09-11-15 | G1 Chicago Cubs -1.5 v. G1 Philadelphia Phillies | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
6* National League *Mound Mismatch* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-145) |
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09-06-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
7* NL Sunday Afternoon *Mound Mismatch* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-113) |
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09-01-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
7* AL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+100) |
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08-30-15 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
7* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-101) |
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08-14-15 | New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
7* AL Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-104) |
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07-29-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
7* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-126) |
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07-12-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. San Francisco Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
7* NL "Blowout" Game of the Month on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+102) |
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07-09-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
7* NL Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) |
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06-26-15 | Washington Nationals -1.5 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
7* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-113) |
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06-13-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
7* MLB "Blowout" Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-110) |
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05-11-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+100) |
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05-10-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-108) |
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09-27-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-113) The Key: The White Sox watched Kansas City celebrate a playoff berth on their field last night and that should get their competitive juices. Plus, the White Sox are honoring Paul Konerko, and they would love nothing more than to win on the day they retire his No. 14 jersey. Chicago is also in good hands with Danks, who is 6-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 15 career starts against Kansas City. Escobar (0 for 15), Cain (0 for 8), Moustakas (1 for 13), Gordon (5 for 32), Perez (2 for 11), Butler (7 for 35) and Infante (4 for 19) have all struggled against him. Duffy has pitched great for the Royals, but they haven't supported him well and the chances of them doing so here aren't good considering the success Danks has had against them. According to this run line, the Royals are just 1-5 against the run line in Duffy's last six starts. They are 4-12 against the run line in his last 16 according to this run line. According to this run line, the Sox are 15-0 against the run line all-time in Danks' starts versus the Royals. |
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09-25-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130) The Key: I'll lay runs with Detroit given the edge it has on the mound with Scherzer, who has a 2.66 home ERA this season. Minnesota's May has posted an 8.66 mark on the road. The Tigers are 14-0 the last three seasons in his Thursday starts. They are 12-0 the last two seasons in his starts in the second half of the season versus teams averaging 0.9 home runs or less per game. The Tigers are 41-10 in Scherzer's last 51 home starts and 14-2 in his last 16 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. They are 11-1 in his last 12 starts versus the Twins, including 6-0 in his last six. These six wins have come by an average of 4.0 runs. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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09-23-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -1.5 (-130) The Key: Off back-to-back losses and clinging to a slim one-game lead in the Central, expect the Tigers to take care of business tonight. Chicago's Scott Carroll has a 5.90 ERA in all starts this season and a 6.85 ERA in night starts. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four road starts, losing these by an average of 3.8 runs. Detroit's David Price has an ERA of 3.41 on the season. He's been inconsistent of late and was roughed up last time out, but the southpaw rarely makes two bad starts outings in a row. Six of the last seven times he's allowed five earned runs or more, he's bounced back to hold the opposition to three earned runs or less in his next start. Price's clubs are 4-1 in his last five starts versus the White Sox with each of these four victories coming by at least two runs. The Tigers hammered Carroll in his lone start against them, tallying seven runs off him in five innings. Detroit is 21-6 on the run line the last two seasons off an upset loss to a division opponent as a favorite of -150 or higher. The Tigers have won these games by an average score of 5.8 to 3.0. Take Detroit on the run line. |
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09-20-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 121 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -1.5 (+121) The Key: Look for Baltimore to bounce back strong from yesterday's loss behind Tillman. The Orioles are 10-0 in his last 10 starts and have won these by an average of 3.3 runs. Baltimore is also a perfect 8-0 this season when giving the ball to Tillman following a defeat, and it has won by an average score of 5.1 to 2.6 in this spot. The Red Sox are 0-3 in De La Rosa's last three starts, during which he's posted a 7.43 ERA. These losses came by an average of 3.0 runs. Tillman has an ERA of 2.70 in 15 career starts versus Boston. David Ortiz is 2 for 24 lifetime against Tillman, Will Middlebrooks is 0 for 18 and Xander Bogaerts is 2 for 11. Bet Baltimore on the run line. |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Pirates -1.5 (+110) The Key: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last five games versus right-handed starters, losing these games by an average of 6.0 runs, and they appear to be up against it with the righty they'll see today. Pittsburgh's Volquez is in top form with a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts. The Pirates are 4-0 in Volquez's last four home starts versus losing teams, and his clubs are 9-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season the last three seasons versus NL teams with a batting average of .250 or lower. His clubs have won these nine by 2.0 runs on average. Volquez has never lost to the Cubs, and his clubs are 9-0 lifetime in his starts against them, during which he's posted a 3.24 ERA. These nine wins have come by an average of 4.2 runs. Chicago's Turner has a massive 5.84 ERA in all appearance this season. Take Pittsburgh on the run line. |
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09-12-14 | Colorado Rockies v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 107 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Cardinals -1.5 +107 The Key: Off three straight losses in Cincinnati, the Cardinals will be all business when they take the field against a Colorado club that has dropped 41 of 51 on the road. While De La Rosa has been strong at home, he has a 5.29 road ERA, and the Rockies are 0-6 in his last six road starts. These defeats have come by an average of 4.0 runs. The Cardinals are 3-0 in Wainwright's last three home starts, winning these by an average of 2.0 runs. And, he's completely dominated the Rockies. Wainwright has a 1.63 ERA in seven career starts against them and is 4-0 in his last four starts. These wins came by an average of 2.5 runs. De La Rosa has a 4.56 ERA in nine career starts versus the Cardinals. Take St. Louis on the run line. |
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08-26-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
6* Run Line Rout on Royals -1.5 (+125) The Key: After losing consecutive games for the first time since July 27 and 29, I expect the Royals to bounce back strong. Duffy has been extremely reliable, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts. He has a 2.53 ERA on the season and a 1.078 WHIP. The Twins are 32-82 in their last 114 games versus starters with a WHIP of less than 1.150. They are 1-18 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower. The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts as a home favorite, 5-0 in his last five series-opening starts and 5-0 in his last five starts versus the Twins. Nolasco has a 9.20 ERA over his last three starts and a 7.32 road ERA on the season. The Twins are 1-5 in the last six meetings and 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City. Take the Royals on the RL. |
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08-18-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
6* Run Line Rout on Nationals -1.5 (-105) The Key: The Nationals are 6-0 in their last six games, winning them by an average of 2.2 runs. They are also 5-0 in their last five home games, winning these by an average of 2.2 runs as well. Nuno's clubs are 0-8 in his last eight starts and have lost these by 2.6 runs on average. His clubs are 0-4 in his last four road starts and have lost these by 3.0 runs on average. The Nats are 3-0 in Zimmerman's last three starts, winning them by 4.7 runs on average. They are 4-0 in his last four home starts with these wins coming by an average of 4.5 runs. The Diamondbacks are 3-30 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater while the Nationals are 22-5 in their last 27 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater. Take Washington on the run line. |
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08-13-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+106) The Key: The Angels are showing value on the run line given the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, who is 10-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 18 starts against NL clubs. The Phillies are 0-5 in Burnett's last five starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs while he's compiled a 6.66 ERA. They are also 0-5 in his last five road starts, losing these by 4.8 runs on average. Burnett's clubs are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Angels. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four interleague road games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 0-8 in the last 8 meetings with the Angels. Take LA on the run line. |
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08-11-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Year on Mariners -1.5 (+105) The Key: This is a terrible spot for Toronto, which played a 6-hour 37-minute, 19-inning marathon game yesterday and then had to make the long cross-country trip to Seattle. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be facing Felix Hernandez, who has gone at least seven innings while allowing two runs or fewer in an MLB-record 15 consecutive starts. He has a 1.42 ERA during this stretch while holding foes to a .168 average. Seattle is 12-1 against the run line when playing on Monday this season, winning these games by an average score of 6.7 to 2.4. You also want to fade road clubs with a +1.5 run line after a game where they had 17 hits or more if their bullpen has logged 13+ innings over the last three games. Doing so has produced a 30-10 mark against the run line since 1997. Take Seattle on the run line. |
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08-01-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout on Tigers -1.5 (-115) The Key: Justin Verlander has been unstoppable against the NL, going 24-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 31 interleague starts, including 13-0 in his last 13 decisions. The Tigers are 2-0 in his two career starts versus the Rockies, and he's posted a 1.84 ERA in these contests. Verlander is also 14-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 15 interleague home starts. He should be able to have his way with a Colorado club that is 0-6 in its last six and 4-18 in its last 22 interleague road games. The Rockies are 2-15 in their last 17 road games and 10-29 in their last 39 games overall. Colorado's Franklin Morales has struggled in interleague play with a 5.76 ERA in 21 appearances. The Rockies are 0-4 in his starts versus the AL this season, during which he's posted a 7.94 ERA. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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07-29-14 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Marlins +1.5 (-135) The Key: The Marlins, who are 5-0 in their last five games, are showing major value catching runs at home at this price. Strasburg is not in good form (5.00 ERA L3 starts), and he's struggled on the road all season (5.09 ERA). Strasburg has also struggled in Miami, giving up 7, 7, 4 and 6 runs in his last 4 starts there. The Nationals went 1-3 in these starts, are 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts overall and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts. Alvarez has been unbelievable at home where he has a 1.64 ERA. The Marlins are 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts. He has a solid 3.19 ERA in 6 starts versus Washington. Take the Marlins on the run line. |
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07-23-14 | Washington Nationals v. Colorado Rockies +1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Rockies +1.5 -115 The Key: The Rockies are showing a ton of value catching runs at home at a very reasonable price with De La Rosa on the mound. The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are 21-3 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a loss. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they are off three consecutive defeats or more. They are a jaw-dropping 43-8 in his last 51 home starts and 12-1 the last two seasons in his day starts. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 5-1 in De La Rosa's last six starts versus Nationals. Strasburg hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.92 ERA. Take Colorado on the run line. |
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07-09-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Brewers -1.5 (+107) The Key: Philly doesn't have enough pop at the plate to get to Lohse, who has a 2.10 ERA in seven home starts this season. The Phillies are batting just .238 on the season, and that doesn't bode well for them here. Milwaukee is a 100 percent perfect 8-0 against the run line this season in Lohse's starts versus NL clubs batting .245 or worse, and it has won these games by an average of 3.5 runs. Philly has managed to win the first two games of this series, but the Brewers are a 100 percent perfect 9-0 against the run line the last three seasons in home games when seeking revenge for two straight upset losses at home to an opponent. They have won by an average of 5.2 runs in this spot. I like Milwaukee's chances of getting to Hernandez, who has a 6.75 ERA in seven road starts this season. Take Milwaukee on the run line. |
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07-07-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 123 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
6* AL Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+123) The Key: Toronto is struggling at the plate. It hit .180 and went 0 for 20 with runners in scoring position while being outscored 14-4 in a four-game series sweep in Oakland. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last six road games and have lost these by an average of 3.5 runs. Their struggles figure to continue as they get set to face Weaver without Encarnacion, who is second in the majors with 26 homers and 70 RBIs. The Angels are 10-0 in their last 10 home games and have won these by 3.1 runs on average. Weaver has a 2.75 ERA at home and is 9-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 11 starts versus Toronto. He's 4-0 in his last four home starts versus the Jays with a 1.99 ERA. LA won those four by 4.3 runs on average. Bautista is just 1 of 12 against Weaver. The Halos are 22-5 as a favorite of -150 or higher this season, winning these contests by an average score of 6.0 to 3.4. Take LA. |
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07-07-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Month on Nationals -1.5 (+126) The Key: Strasburg is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last nine home starts while Tillman has an ERA of 5.53 in 10 road starts and an 11.90 ERA in three interleague starts. Tillman is averaging only 5.5 innings per start on the road and 3.8 innings in interleague play. In other words, an early departure figures to put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has been taxed the last two days. Showalter said that certain relievers won't take the mound after his pen worked 12 1-3 innings over the last two days. You want to fade underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts if the bullpen has worked nine innings or more in the last two games. Doing so has produced a 66-13 mark since 1997, a 22-4 mark the last five seasons, a 14-1 mark the last three seasons and a 2-0 mark this season. Teams fitting into this system have lost by 2.3 runs on average. Take Washington on the run line. |
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07-03-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Rockies +1.5 The Key: I'll take the Rockies on the run line at a reasonable price for insurance in a game they have an excellent opportunity to win outright. The Rockies, who are 20-8 in their last 28 home games following a road trip of seven or more days, will be happy to be home and happy to see Zack Greinke. LA's right-handed ace hasn't had the same stuff on the road. The Dodgers are 0-4 in his last four road starts while he's posted an ERA of 4.18. He's especially struggled in Colorado where he has a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers are 5-12 in Greinke's last 17 starts as a road favorite of -125 to -150. Franklin Morales has been tough on the division. The Rockies are 4-0 in his four division starts this season while he's posted a 3.37 ERA. The Rockies are batting .325 at home and averaging 6.4 runs per game. The Dodgers are batting just .230 versus southpaw starters. Take Colorado. |
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06-23-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Kansas City Royals +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
6* Interleague Run Line Rout on Royals +1.5 (-140) The Key: I missed a big play with the Royals yesterday as they suffered yet another one-run loss, but I'm not hesitating to come back with them catching runs as they've won or lost by a single run in 13 of their last 14 games. The Dodgers are a poor 25-54 in their last 79 interleague road games, and they are 16-40 in their last 56 interleague road games versus teams with a winning record. Greinke is one of the best in the game, but the Dodgers are 0-3 in his last three road starts, and he's 0-2 on the money line in two career starts versus the Royals (both in KC). The Royals are 7-1 in their last eight interleague games, 25-11 in Guthrie's last 36 starts versus a team with a winning record, 15-4 in his last 19 home starts versus a team with a winning record, 10-4 in his last 14 starts as a home underdog and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Royals on the run line. |
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06-23-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Baltimore Orioles +1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
6* AL Run Line Rout on Orioles +1.5 (-155) The Key: I expect the Orioles to take care of business at home against a Chicago club that is 29-66 in its last 95 on the road, but I'm taking them on the run line for insurance. Chicago's Chris Sale has strong numbers, but they are a bit skewed because he's made only two starts on the road. The White Sox are 3-8 in Sale's last 11 road starts and 1-8 in his last nine starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Chen has been rock solid on the season, and the Orioles are 3-0 all-time in his starts versus the White Sox, during which he's posted a 2.60 ERA. The Orioles are 7-1 in his last eight starts as a home underdog. Take Baltimore on the run line. |
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06-21-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout on Royals -1.5 (+133) The Key: The Royals are 9-1 against the run line in their last 10 games, and they are in excellent position to cover another one here. The Royals have dropped back-to-back games since winning 10 in a row and will be extremely focused to get back in the win column. They have been crushing the ball, averaging 6.3 runs over their last 12 games, and the offensive onslaught should continue against Chris Young, who has a 5.18 ERA on the road. His clubs are 2-6 in his last eight road starts, including 0-3 in his last three. Jason Vargas has been in great form over his last five starts, and he's had no problem with Seattle lately. He's 3-0 in his last three starts against the Mariners while giving up only three runs in 20 1-3 innings. Each of these wins came by at least four runs. The Royals are 6-0 in their last six Game 2's of a series, 7-0 in their last seven when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game and 7-0 in their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. You want to fade AL road underdogs of +150 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or lower on the season when they are matched up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who averages more than 6.5 innings per starts. Doing so has produced a 61-9 mark the last five seasons that carries a 2.7 average margin of victory. Take the Royals on the run line. |
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06-15-14 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Giants -1.5 (+108) The Key: After falling in the first two games of the series, the Giants will rise to the occasion this afternoon. They are an impressive 60-23 in their last 83 games as a favorite of -201 or greater, 15-1 in their last 16 Sunday games and 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first two games of a series. They also have a significant edge on the mound with Bumgarner, who has a 2.67 ERA on the season and a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts. Colorado's Nicasio has a 5.70 ERA on the season and a 14.48 ERA over his last three starts. The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts in the third game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Rockies (these four victories have come by an average 2.8 runs). The Rockies are 0-4 in Nicasio's 4 career road starts versus the Giants. Take San Francisco on the run line. |
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06-06-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 127 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Rangers -1.5 (+127) The Key: The Indians were a perfect 6-0 during their recent homestand, but the road doesn't figure to treat them as well. They are a major league-worst 9-19 on the road, including 0-4 in their last four away from Cleveland. Their road struggles should continue with Texas giving the ball to Darvish, who has a 1.66 ERA over his last five starts. The Rangers are 11-2 in Darvish's last 13 starts and 7-0 in his last seven starts on regular rest (4 days). These 11 victories have come by an average of 4.1 runs. The seven wins of the 7-0 run have come by 3.1 runs on average. Cleveland's Bauer has had a rough go on the road. The Indians are 1-3 in his last four road starts, and he's allowed four runs or more three times during this stretch. Each of these three defeats came by two runs or more. Cleveland was lucky to get the one victory during this span since Bauer gave up five runs in 2-3 innings in that start. Take Texas on the run line. |
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06-01-14 | San Diego Padres v. Chicago White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 122 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
7* Interleague Run Line Rout of the Year on White Sox -1.5 The Key: The White Sox are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series and have won these by an average of 4.2 runs. They are also 9-2 this season when playing with double revenge, winning by an average of 2.5 run in these contests. Chris Sale is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA on the season and has a 0.56 ERA over his last three starts. He gives the Sox a significant advantage considering San Diego's Eric Stults is 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA on the road. You want to fade road underdogs priced at +150 or more following a win by two runs or less when they are matched up against an opponent that has scored three runs or fewer in four straight games. Doing so has produced a 44-6 mark since 1997. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 2.9 runs. The White Sox are batting .274 and averaging 5.2 runs per game against lefty starters. They should get to Stults and Sale should take care of the rest. |
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04-21-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's +1.5 (-150) The Key: The A's are showing some nice value catching 1.5 runs at this price. Texas has lost four of six road games this season, and it is 4-12 in its last 16 series openers dating back to last season. The Rangers haven't been on the road since April 9, and they are 0-4 in their last four games versus Oakland. Darvish has been brilliant thus far. The Rangers have won each of his three starts, but the last two wins came by a single run. Darvish has had a rough go of it versus Oakland. The Rangers are 0-6 in his last six starts versus the A's, including 0-2 in two career starts in Oakland. He was rocked in both of those starts, giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Straily has been good against Texas, going 2-0 in his last two starts against the Rangers. In six career starts against them, the A's have won or lost by a single run in five of them. Take the A's on the run line.
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10-18-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
7* NLCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +1.5 -150
The Key: The Cardinals are showing value catching runs at this price. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 12-0 this season in home games following a day off. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 League Championship road games. They are also 0-4 in Kershaw's last 4 starts versus the Cardinals. He was hit hard in two of these starts and got no run support in the other two. Wacha is 3-0 with an 0.42 ERA in his last three starts and outdueled Kershaw in Game 2. The Cardinals squandered a 3-1 series lead last fall against the Giants, and they do not want to see this thing reach a Game 7. I expect them to be very focused and hungry tonight. |
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10-14-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
6* NLCS Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Dodgers +1.5 -155
The Key: Each of the Dodgers' last six defeats have come by a single run, and three of St. Louis' last four wins have come by a single run. With this in mind, I believe the Dodgers +1.5 is the strongest play for Game 3. Wainwright has been sensational down the stretch. The Cardinals have won his last seven starts, but keep in mind that only one of those came on the road. Wainwright hasn't been quite as good on the road (3.36 ERA) this season, and the Cardinals have lost four of his last seven road starts. The Cards are also 1-4 in Wainwright's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 6-15 in their last 21 road games versus a team with a winning record, 1-4 in their last five playoff road games, 6-13 in their last 19 League Championship road games and 3-7 in their last 10 road games versus a left-handed starter. LA Southpaw Ryu has been at his best at home where he has a 2.61 ERA. The Dodgers are 11-4 in his last 15 home starts, 6-1 in his last seven starts as an underdog, 5-0 in his last five starts versus the National League Central and 4-0 in his last four home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff home games. Take LA on the run line. |
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09-20-13 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Nationals -1.5 -115
The Key: The Nationals are 7-0 at home this season against the Marlins, winning these by 3.1 runs on average. They are 3-0 in Zimmermann's last 3 starts, winning these by 4.3 runs on average. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Marlins, winning these by 4.8 runs on average. The Marlins are 0-5 in Turner's last 5 starts with 3 of these losses coming by 2 runs. Take Washington on the run line. |
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09-19-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's -1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 104 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -1.5 +104
The Key: The A's are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss, winning these games by an average of 4.1 runs. Look for the A's to respond with a big win following last night's defeat. Straily has been dealing. The A's are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, winning these by an average of 3.5 runs. The Twins are 3-12 in Correia's last 15 starts. Each of their last 6 losses with him on the mound have come by at least 3 runs. Oakland recorded wins of 18-3 and 8-2 in its last two meetings with Minnesota, which took place last week. Take Oakland on the run line. |
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09-17-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -120
The Key: I'll take the Tigers on the run line against the struggling Mariners. Seattle is 1-7 in its last 8 games with 6 of these losses coming by 2 runs or more. In addition, the M's are 0-6 in Brandon Maurer's last 6 starts, losing these by an average of 4.2 runs. They are 0-4 all-time in his road starts, losing these by 5.0 runs on average. The Tigers are 3-0 in Anibal Sanchez's last 3 starts, winning these by an average of 6.7 runs. They are 9-1 in his last 10 starts with 8 of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. Take Detroit on the run line. |
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09-01-13 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -104
The Key: Greinke's clubs are 12-0 in his home starts versus losing clubs since the beginning of last season, winning these starts by an average score of 6.6 to 3.3. His teams are also 13-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season versus losing teams since 2011, winning these by an average score of 4.9 to 2.6. His clubs are 15-0 in his starts as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since the start of the 2011 season, winning these by an average score of 5.9 to 2.5. The Dodgers are 8-0 this season in his starts versus poor power teams that average 0.9 or less home runs per game, winning these by an average score of 3.8 to 1.6. LA is also 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus clubs that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by an average score of 4.3 to 2.0. Take the Dodgers on the run line. |
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08-29-13 | Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Brewers +1.5 -148
The Key: Gallardo is in terrific form. The Brewers are 3-0 in his last 3 starts, a stretch where he posted a 2.65 ERA. Pittsburgh's Cole hasn't been nearly as sharp of late, as evidenced by the 4.24 ERA he's posted over his last 3 starts. Gallardo has owned the Pirates. The Brewers are 14-3 all-time in his starts against Pittsburgh, and he has posted a 2.58 ERA in these games. One of those losses came by a single run so the Brewers have covered today's run line in 15 of Gallardo's 17 starts against the Bucs. Take Milwaukee on the run line. |
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08-27-13 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 +120
The Key: Verlander isn't having the type of season we've come to expect from him, but I really like him in this spot against a club he's owned. He's 6-0 in his last six starts versus Oakland and has given up one earned run or none in each. These wins have come by an average of 3.5 runs with each coming by at least two runs. It is also worth noting that Detroit is a perfect 11-0 in Verlander's home starts in the second half of the season versus good teams with a winning percentage of 54-62% since 2011. The Tigers have won these games by 2.4 runs on average. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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08-26-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -105
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back back defeats, I fully expect the Dodgers to take care of business at home against a Chicago club they have owned. Keep in mind the Dodgers haven't lost three consecutive games since June 8-10. LA is 7-0 in its last 7 versus the Cubs, winning these by 2.6 runs on average. LA is in fantastic hands with Greinke getting the ball. It is 5-0 in his last 5 starts, winning these by 2.8 runs on average. It is also 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus teams that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by 2.0 runs on average. In addition, Greinke's clubs are 11-0 since the beginning of last season in his home starts versus teams that have a losing record, winning these by 3.2 runs on average. His clubs are 15-0 since the start of the 2011 season in his home starts as a favorite of -175 to -250, winning these by 3.4 runs on average. Lastly, Greinke is 3-0 all-time in 3 home starts versus the Cubs with his teams winning these by 3.7 runs on average. Take LA on the run line. |
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08-24-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 108 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Reds -1.5 +108
The Key: The Reds are showing value on the run line give the edges they hold on the mound and at the plate. The Reds lost yesterday, and that's in our best interest. Consider that they are 14-1 since the beginning of last season in home games following an upset loss at home to a division rival. They are also 14-1 since the start of last season in home games when out for revenge for an upset loss at home in a game where they were listed at -150 or higher. In addition, Cincy is 19-2 this season in home games following a defeat. It is also 9-1 this season when Arroyo gets the ball following a loss. The Reds have won each of Arroyo's last 3 starts by 2 runs or more while the Brewers have dropped Peralta's last 2 by 2 runs or more. The Reds have won both of Arroyo's starts against the Brewers this season while the Brewers have lost each of Peralta's 3 career starts in Cincinnati. Take Cincy on the run line. |
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08-18-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Rangers -1.5 -129
The Key: I expect Texas to win convincingly this afternoon as it faces Seattle scheduled starter Ramirez, who has a hefty 7.06 ERA. The Rangers are in much better hands with Yu Darvish, who has a 2.64 ERA. He leads the majors with 207 strikeouts and opponents are batting just .186 against him. Darvish is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.64 ERA. He's also 3-0 all-time in three home starts versus the Mariners. The Rangers won these three by six, six and seven runs, respectively. Take Texas on the run line. |
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08-15-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers +1.5 -133
The Key: I'll gladly take the Brewers catching 1.5 runs at a pretty nice price with Lohse on the hill. The Brewers are 5-0 in his last five starts, and he's posted a 1.74 ERA during this stretch. They are also 7-0 in his last seven home starts, and he's recorded a 2.56 ERA during this span. Lohse has a 1.95 ERA over his last eight starts against the Reds, and his clubs are 4-0 in his last four home starts against them. It is also worth mentioning that the Brewers are 4-0 in Lohse's last four starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-0 in his last five series-opening starts. The Brewers check in off a loss but are 4-0 in their last four games following defeat. The Reds are just 1-5 in their last six meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Brew Crew on the run line. |
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08-11-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Cleveland Indians -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Indians -1.5 +111
The Key: The Angels are at a disadvantage with Jerome Williams on the hill. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts with an average losing margin of 3.4 runs. Williams has a 5.46 ERA on the season. Cleveland's Justin Masterson, meanwhile, has a 3.46 ERA. His home ERA is 2.82, and his day game ERA is 1.98. Williams has a 6.33 ERA in day starts. The Indians are 9-3 in Masterson's last 12 home starts. Masterson's clubs are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Angels, and he has a 1.35 ERA in 7 career starts against LA. The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200 while the Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take Cleveland on the run line. |
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08-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies +1.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Rockies +1.5
The Key: The Rockies are showing tremendous value catching 1.5 runs at this price with De La Rosa on the hill. They are an incredible 40-15 in his last 55 home starts, including 14-2 in his last 16 home starts versus teams with a winning record. Colorado is happy to be back home following a tough 10-game road trip. It has lost its last five games, but it is 8-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts when it checks in off a loss. It has won by an average score of 5.9 to 3.8 in this spot. It is also worth noting that Colorado has won or lost by a single run in five of De La Rosa's last seven starts against the Pirates. The Pirates are just -5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Take Colorado. |
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08-03-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Tigers -1.5 -125
The Key: The Tigers are rolling. They are 7-0 in their last seven home games with a 5.6-run average winning margin. The White Sox, meanwhile, are ice cold. They are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with a 2.3-run average losing margin. Detroit has been lighting up left-handed pitching. It is batting .277 and scoring 5.4 runs per game off southpaw starters this season and is 8-0 in its last eight games versus a lefty starter. The Tigers won these eight by an average of 4.9 runs. Their success against lefties should continue as Chicago is 0-3 in Danks' starts versus AL Central foes this season. It's lost these starts by 3.0 runs on average while he's posted a 6.50 ERA. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four starts in Detroit, losing these by 4.0 runs on average. Chicago is 0-4 in its last four road games versus right-handed starters and will have its work cut our for itself as it goes up against Scherzer. The Tigers are 8-0 in his starts versus AL Central opponents this season. They've won these by an average of 8.0 runs while he's posted a 3.20 ERA. The Tigers are 4-0 in his last four starts against the Sox, winning these by an average of 3.0 runs. Take Detroit on the run line. |
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08-02-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Red Sox -1.5 +115
The Key: Boston is showing value on the run line at home with Jon Lester on the mound. That's because it is 8-0 this season in his home starts, and he's posted a 2.95 ERA during this run. The Red Sox have won these eight starts by an average of 2.6 runs. Randall Delgado was torched in Boston last season, giving up 4 earned runs on six hits in just 1 1-3 innings. Lester, on the other hand, gave up only two earned on four hits in seven innings of a 6-2 win in his lone starts versus Arizona. Take Boston on the run line. |
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07-26-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* of the Week on Mariners -1.5 -102
The Key: The Mariners have won nine of 10. This stretch bodes well for us considering they are 11-0 in home games since the beginning of last when checking into a contest with six or seven wins in eight games. They have won by an average score of 5.0 to 2.2 in this situation. In addition, the Mariners are 6-0 in their last six home games versus the Twins, winning these by an average of 3.8 runs. Minnesota finds itself at a major disadvantage on the mound with Scott Diamond getting the ball. It is 0-5 in his last five starts, losing them by an average of 4.4 runs. It is also 0-7 in his last seven starts as an underdog, losing these by 4.7 runs on average. The M's, on the other hand, are 4-0 in Felix Hernandez's last four starts, winning them by 5.5 runs on average. Hernandez went 2-0 against Minnesota last season, allowing no runs in 17 innings. Take Seattle on the run line. |
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07-24-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Angels -1.5 -107
The Key: The Angels are a sound investment with Jered Weaver on the hill at home where he has an ERA of 2.44 this season. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey is carrying a 5.49 ERA on the road. Right away, I love the fact that LA is 30-7 in Weaver's home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season. They have won these by an average score of 4.8 to 2.4. It also bodes well for us that Weaver gave up no runs in 6 2-3 innings of a 4-1 win over Oakland his last time out. That's because the Halos are 15-1 in his home starts after a start where he gave up one earned run or less since the beginning of the 2011 season. They have won these by an average score of 5.8 to 2.1. The Angels have never lost to the Twins in LA with Weaver on the hill. They are 6-0 all-time in his home starts against them, winning these by an average of 5.7 runs. |
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07-21-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Giants -1.5 +140
The Key: The Giants have a huge advantage on the mound with Bumgarner. They are 3-0 in his last three and 6-1 in his last seven starts. All six of these wins have come by at least two runs. Delgado's teams, on the other hand, are 3-9 in his last 12 starts. Eight of these defeats came by two runs or more. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last five division games, losing these by 3.0 runs on average. They are also 0-4 in their last four road games versus left-handed starters, losing these by 2.5 runs on average. The Giants are 4-0 in their last four versus Arizona, winning these by 3.0 runs on average. Take San Francisco on the run line. |
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07-12-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout Blowout on Dodgers -1.5 -115
The Key: The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last five games with each of these wins coming by at least two runs. They are also 3-0 in Clayton Kershaw's last three starts with each of these victories coming by at least two runs. He has a 1.08 ERA during this stretch. In addition, L.A. is 3-0 in Kershaw's last three starts versus the Rockies with these wins coming by two runs or more. It is also 7-0 in his last seven home starts versus Colorado with these wins coming by 3.4 runs on average. The Rockies are 0-3 in Juan Nicasio's last three starts. They lost these by an average of 3.7 runs while he posted an ERA of 9.00. Take L.A. on the run line. |
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07-08-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers +1.5 -133
The Key: The Brewers are showing tremendous value catching 1.5 runs at home at this price. Cincy's Homer Bailey tossed a no-no his last time out. However, the Reds were 0-3 in his previous 3 starts, a stretch where he posted a 5.68 ERA. Expect Bailey to come back down to earth against a club that has had his number. The right-hander is 1-6 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 starts against the Brewers. He's 0-2 in his last 2 starts at Milwaukee, giving up 11 runs in just 9 2-3 innings. The Reds are 2-7 in his last 9 road starts. Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse has found his groove, going 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA in last 6 starts. The Brewers are 3-0 in Lohse's last 3 home starts. The righty has enjoyed plenty of success against the Reds, going 2-1 with a 1.76 ERA in his last 7 starts against them. His teams are 3-0 in his last 3 home starts against Cincy. Take Milwaukee on the run line. |
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07-06-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Blowout on Blue Jays -1.5 -108
The Key: We cashed in with the Blue Jays on the run line Friday, and I'll stick with them here. The Twins are now 0-6 in their last 6 games with an average losing margin of 3.3 runs. Dickey has been dealing of late with the Jays going 4-0 in his last 4 starts. They've won these by an average of 3.5 runs. Pelfrey's road ERA is 6.92, and the Twins are 0-3 in his last 3 road starts with a 3.3-run average losing margin. Dickey's knuckler has been tough to read during the day, and his teams are 19-6 in his day starts since the beginning of last season as a result. The Twins have lost 20 of their last 26 in Toronto where the Jays are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. They've won these 7 by 4.0 runs on average. Take Toronto on the run line. |
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07-05-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 119 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Blue Jays -1.5 +119
The Key: The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games and have lost these by an average of 3.2 runs. I expect their struggles to continue give how poorly they've performed on Friday this season. The Twins are 0-11 on Friday and have lost these contests by an average of 4.0 runs. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite and have won these by an average of 4.0 runs. Toronto also has the advantage on the mound with Buehrle. The Jays are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, winning these by 2.75 runs on average. He's given up 2 earned runs or less in each of the 4. Correia has struggled immensely on the road where he has an ERA of 5.18. Take Toronto on the run line. |
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07-02-13 | Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Year on Braves -1.5 -107
The Key: The Braves are 7-0 in their last seven games versus Miami and have won these games by an average of 3.1 runs. I expect their dominance of the Marlins to continue with Medlen on the mound. The right-hander has dominated soft-hitting clubs like Miami. In fact, the Braves are 11-0 in his last 11 starts in the second half of the season versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage .325 or worse. They have won these games by an average of 4.1 runs. The Braves are also 12-0 all-time in Medlen's starts in the second half of the season versus poor-power teams that average 0.9 or less home runs per game. They have won these by an average of 4.7 runs. Atlanta is 6-0 lifetime in Medlen's starts against the Marlins, winning these by 2.8 runs on average. He has a 2.29 ERA in these starts. Atlanta is even 5-0 in Medlen's last 5 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater, winning these by an average of 3.6 runs. Take the Braves on the run line. |
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06-27-13 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 126 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 +126
The Key: The Dodgers are in the midst of their longest win streak of the season. They are 5-0 in their last five games, winning these by an average of 2.4 runs. They are in great position to extend this run with Greinke on the hill. The Dodgers are 5-0 in his home starts, during which he's posted an ERA of 2.12. These wins have come by an average of 2.6 runs. Greinke's teams are a perfect 20-0 in his home starts versus losing clubs since the start of the 2011 season and have won these starts by an average score of 6.2 to 3.3. His clubs are also 14-0 in his starts as a home favorite of -175 to -250 during this span, winning these by an average score of 5.9 to 2.4. Take the Dodgers on the run line. |
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06-17-13 | Miami Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +102
The Key: The D-backs are 13-0 in Pat Corbin's starts this season, and he has posted an ERA of just 2.28 in these games. Arizona has won these games by an average of 3.2 runs so there is value in taking it on the run line. Corbin has an ERA of 1.60 at home on the season, and the D-backs are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts dating back to last season. They've won these by an average of 2.6 runs. Corbin should have plenty of success against a Miami lineup that is batting just .217 against lefties. It's also important to note that the D-backs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in Corbin's last 4 series-opening starts. Miami is 0-5 in the first game during each of its 5 road trips this season. Take Arizona on the run line. |
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06-14-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Month on A's -1.5 +108
The Key: First off, the Mariners are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games and 1-11 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Oakland is 12-1 as a favorite of -150 or more this season. Secondly, the Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a left-handed starter. They lost these contests by an average of 4.8 runs. They figure to have their hands full with Tom Milone, who has a 2.43 ERA at home. The A's are 3-0 in his 3 career home starts against the Mariners, winning those by 3.3 runs on average. The A's are also 4-0 in Milone's last 4 starts series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Oakland is 10-0 this season in home games versus AL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. It has won these games by an average of 3.0 runs. The Athletics are also 9-0 in their last 9 series openers and 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. They should have their way with Joe Saunders. The Mariners are 0-6 in Saunders' 6 road starts this season, and he has an ERA of 9.00 in these games. He's also 0-2 in his last 2 starts in Oakland. Take the A's on the run line. |
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05-28-13 | Miami Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Rays -1.5 -106
The Key: The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 games and have lost these by an average of 2.5 runs. They are also 0-6 in their last 6 road games, losing these by an average of 2.7 runs. Miami is 0-3 in Kevin Slowey's last 3 starts. These losses came by an average of 5.3 runs, which isn't hard to believe considering Slowey posted an 8.52 ERA during this stretch. Jeremy Hellickson has struggled but enters with confidence following his best start of the season. Besides, the Rays have won 5 of his last 6 home starts dating back to last season. The Marlins are 9-24 in the last 33 meetings and 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the run line. |
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05-17-13 | Houston Astros v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Pirates -1.5 +100
The Key: The Pirates have owned the Astros. They've won 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and 16 of the last 21 at home. Plus, they've never lost to Houston when facing Jordan Lyles. They are 5-0 against the 'stros when Lyles gets the start. Lyles has a 7.77 ERA in these 5 starts. It's also worth noting that the Astros are 0-9 in Lyles' last 9 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-7 in his last 7 interleague starts. Take Pittsburgh on the run line. |