Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our Big 12 Game of the Year. This is the perfect situation for Iowa St., at least as far as a cover goes because overreaction happens every week and we are seeing that here based on recent results on both sides. Iowa St. opened the season 3-0 but has lost three straight games, all by one possession including the last two by four points combined as the offense shut down in those last two with 20 points scored combined. The defense remains a strength however as the Cyclones have allowed 14 points or less in five of their six games and now are getting more points than they have allowed in those games and on average for the season where they have given up only 13.7 ppg. The total defense is ranked No. 11 in the country, allowing 277.5 ypg and while facing a solid offense, it is one that it can slow down. This has been a great spot with Iowa St. going 6-0 ATS in its last six games as underdogs of three or more points coming off a loss while head coach Matt Campbell is 10-0 ATS his last 10 conference games against winning teams when getting double digits. While the last three losses for the Cyclones is part of the overreaction, the Texas 49-0 win against Oklahoma is an even bigger overreaction. It was a solid win over a very good Sooners team but a very overrated Sooners team that has been exposed the last three weeks on defense. The line opened high and has been bet up even higher which is giving us great value on the other side. Overall, Texas is ranked No. 37 in total offense and No. 34 in total defense which are very good rankings but nothing over the top that helps explain such a big line over a quality team. Coming off a blowout over their biggest rival can create a letdown but in addition, Texas has a revenge game on deck against Oklahoma St. while Iowa St. has a bye which solidifies taking the big underdog. 10* (187) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Michigan is off to a 6-0 start but has played a soft slate for the most part as the best opponent has been Maryland which resulted in a seven-point win at home and it did not come close to covering. The Wolverines opened with three nonconference games against Colorado St., Hawaii and Connecticut, three teams ranked No. 136, No. 166 and No. 150 respectively in the latest power rankings and the three conference games have been far from daunting with the highest ranked opponent being Iowa at No. 33. To put it in perspective, the Wolverines have played a schedule ranked No. 111 which is second lowest in strength of all teams that are No. 45 or better in the country. Yes, Michigan has the talent to make another conference run but not being tested, no chance to back them against a quality opponent laying this number. One big gripe about head coach James Franklin is the fact he has stunk in this role of an underdog against teams highly ranked teams as he has lost eight in a row on the road against top ten teams but the price is a big deal with five of those defeats coming by five points or less so we are not dealing with a history of blowouts. The Nittany Lions offense has been solid as they are ranked No. 38 overall and No. 37 in scoring and a solid rushing game has buoyed this as they are averaging 192.6 ypg on the ground which is No. 33 in the nation. The Michigan defense has been one of the best but against no one. This is a good scheduling spot for Penn St. as while it will be a full house at the Big House, a noon game is different than a home game at night where the energy is completely different. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing ypc last game. this situation is 60-25 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (127) Penn St. Nittany Lions |
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10-14-22 | Navy +13 v. SMU | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. After a 0-2 start with bad losses against Delaware and Memphis, Navy has responded with wins in two of its last three games, both being impressive conference victories over East Carolina and Tulsa with the lone defeat being a three-point loss at Air Force. This is the time to jump on the Midshipmen as they are playing their style again and the markets have not caught up despite this being one of just two games on Friday. Navy rushed for 455 yards in its last game against Tulsa and while it was only one game, it is in a great spot here against a defense that has allowed an average of 195 rushing ypg in the four games against FBS opponents. Overall, Navy is No. 12 in rushing offense, averaging 231.8 ypg and being able to shorten the game with the running attack is important being a double-digit underdog. SMU has lost three straight games following a 2-0 start including a 22-point loss at UCF which was a horrible spot coming off two postponements which messed with travel and practice issues leading up to the game last Wednesday. The Mustangs do have extra time in this spot which is significant when prepping for the Navy offense but an extra two days is nothing compared to a bye week prior to the matchup. SMU does have a potent offense led by a passing game that is ranked No. 4 in the country with 355 ypg but it does come down to the rushing game and the point at the line of scrimmage as the Mustangs have been outgained on the ground in all four FBS matchups. Turnovers are an issue as well as the Mustangs are -6 in turnover margin over the last four games. Here, we play against teams averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl, after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. this situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Bears have been more competitive than people thought they would be as they are 2-3 and the last two losses have been by a combined 15 points on the road but the scoring numbers are misleading. Chicago has been outgained in four of five games, three of those by 127 or more yards and it is getting outgained by close to 100 ypg. The Bears have the 32nd ranked passing offense in the league and overall they are 31st in total offense so while the rushing game has carried them through the first five games, this is not a good matchup. Chicago has averaged 157.4 ypg on the ground which is No. 5 in the NFL but Washington has been solid against the run, allowing just 110.6 ypg and did a good job against Derrick Henry last week, giving up only 3.6 ypc. Washington looked like it was going to pull out a last second win against Tennessee last week but an interception from Carson Wentz from the two-yard line handed the Commanders their fourth straight loss after defeating Jacksonville in the season opener. Wentz was called out by head coach Ron Rivera and whether it provides motivation we will not know but is shows the frustration and this is the ideal matchup to get back into the win column. Washington has outgained three of five opponents and on the season and it is getting outgained by only 4.0 ypg with the biggest discrepancy being a 24-8 loss to 5-0 Philadelphia. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a turnover defense forcing one or less turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) Washington Commanders |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Chiefs accomplished their Super Bowl revenge with a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay but a return home keeps it rolling as this is just their second home contest of the season. Kansas City has outgained three of four opponents with the lone exception being the one home game against the Chargers where it got backdoored late on a touchdown with just over a minute left. The offense has not skipped a beat with the new receiver personnel as the Chiefs are No. 5 in total offense and No. 2 in scoring offense which includes a bad effort against the Colts where turnovers and special teams ended up being the difference. This could be considered a sandwich game with the Bills on deck but being a Monday night game against a division rival, that is not a concern. We played against the Raiders last week and it was a front door cover there as well with a touchdown with two minutes left. The victory saved the season after starting 0-3 and this is a daunting matchup in trying to get back-to-back wins and while the offense has progressively gotten better, facing an underrated defense on the road is a challenge. The Chiefs have the No. 1 rushing defense in the league so the big game from Josh Jacobs last week cannot be counted upon here. On the other side, the Raiders are No. 22 in total defense and No. 24 in scoring defense and should have no answer for the Kansas City offense. Here, we play on Monday night home teams coming off consecutive road games and playing a team coming off a home game. this situation is 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (480) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-09-22 | Bengals v. Ravens -3 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -120 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC North Game of the Month. In one regard, Baltimore has to be livid after blowing a 20-3 lead against Buffalo last week but what better bounce back opponent could they ask for than divisional rival Cincinnati who blasted them by a combined 82-38 in the two meetings last season. Sure, it is not an easy opponent but because of that, we are getting fair line value in a rare situation involving Baltimore games where the road team is 4-0 in its first four games this season. In addition to the blown lead against the Bills, they blew a massive lead against the Dolphins and in a strange scheduling quirk, the Ravens opened the season with all four games against the AFC East and are a not to happy coming away with a .500 record in those games. The offense has done its part as Baltimore is ranked No. 3 in scoring and No. 12 overall but the defense remains an issue that plagued them last season. A change in coaching personnel has not helped as the Ravens are allowing 6.2 yards per play which is tied for fourth most in the league and while that may not be a good stat going into this matchup but they possess the No. 10 ranked blitz percentage and that can cause havoc against this awful offensive line. The Bengals have regained some of their footing as they opened with a pair of bad losses against the Steelers and Cowboys before bouncing back against the Jets and Dolphins the last two weeks. Those two wins fell right into their laps, however. New York was coming off that epic comeback against the Browns so the Bengals caught the Jets perfectly and the following week, they got Miami coming off a game against Bills in excessive heat where they had to play on a short week. This will be the second team they have faced coming off a loss and Dallas took care of business with its backup quarterback and now face Lamar Jackson who is putting up considerable numbers through the air and on the ground. Cincinnati is overachieving on defense thanks to a schedule that is ranked No. 21 in strength. 10* (478) Baltimore Ravens |
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10-09-22 | Eagles v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Arizona falls into another plug your nose side but situation and value trump any and all love that is pouring over Philadelphia right now. The Cardinals avoided a 1-3 start with a win at Carolina last week and they moved to 2-0 on the road and will be out to break their 0-2 record at home and it can be done. One factor that should come back to the mean is avoiding slow starts as the Cardinals have not scored in the first quarter in any of their first four games while getting outscored 70-16 in the first half of those games so the fact they are sitting at .500 in pretty impressive. It has taken a while for the offense to get rolling but this is where Kyler Murray can have success. The pressure of the Eagles pass rush is one of the best in the NFL at 32.2 percent and that showed last week as they sacked Carson Wentz nine times but Murray brings the added element of getting out of the pocket and making plays on his own. After a bad loss to the Chiefs, Arizona has outgained each of its last three opponents so they have been sneaky efficient. Philadelphia started to make some noise in the preseason as it was getting extra love in the futures market in winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl and those early tickets are looking tasty as the lines have taken off. The 4-0 start is putting them near the top of the Super Bowl odds and that is also helping week-to-week as the Eagles have covered eight straight games and the lines need to be continually adjusted and have been overpriced here. It is a mix of the public perception of the Eagles, they are very good to be fair, and the public saying the Cardinals suck which leads us into backing an Arizona team with excellent value. The power numbers do not like Philadelphia too much and we are not talking about the ones on TV that are amping the Eagles up as they are as low as No. 8 mostly due to a schedule that is ranked fourth easiest. They have been flourishing with the run but face the No. 5 ranked rushing defense in the league. 10* (474) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. San Francisco improved to 2-2 on the season with a win over Los Angeles and is now in a tough spot where they have to travel east on a short week following a divisional win and one that had revenge attached to it from the NFC Championship from a season ago. The 49ers are now again a public darling which is always the case for the winner of the two late standalone games on Sunday and Monday and we are bucking the public love in this one. San Francisco played another solid game on defense as it remains the best in the NFL close to through the first quarter of the season as the 49ers are ranked No. 1 in both total defense and scoring defense and No. 2 in both rushing defense and passing defense. On paper, the Panthers should be able to do nothing and that is a big part of why we are seeing the betting markets all over the 49ers with 75 percent of the money holding their tickets where the line has gone from -3 to -6.5 across places on Friday. Getting to 7 would be ideal but that is unlikely going to happen. Carolina head coach Matt Rhule is clearly on the hot seat as there has been some suspect play calling in certain situations but to their credit, the Panthers could be better than their 1-3 record shows as they have been within striking distance late of all three of those losses. They have played a weak slate thus far so losing all of those three winnable games is inexcusable so they are put into a tough spot here but not a daunting one as they do possess the big scheduling edge. Playing at home has not worked out so far on this homestand with a split against the Saints and Cardinals so the third straight home game will send them on the highway on a positive. Baker Mayfield has shown his struggles against heavy blitzes but the 49ers are not a blitzing defense as their 22 percent rate is No. 21 in the league so while they still create heavy pressure, Mayfield can get around that and not have the ball batted back into his face. 10* (472) Carolina Panthers |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Not often do we see a game that has both situation and matchup heavily favoring one side but we have that here in what should finally be the Tampa Bay coming out party. The Buccaneers were given no favors by the schedule-makers for the early part of the slate, until now that is. They opened with a pair pf road games at New Orleans and Dallas and then came home to face two of the top teams in their respective conferences in Green Bay and Kansas City with both resulting in losses. Tampa Bay now gets its third straight game at home and following a pair of losses is the best time to back Tom Brady in a strong bounce back situation. The Buccaneers are ranked No. 25 in total offense and No. 16 in scoring offense as they remain unbalanced with the third fewest rushing attempts in the league and now that they are getting healthy in some key spots, the balance should work itself out. Atlanta is 2-2 and could be 4-0 or 0-4 or anywhere in-between and this is just the second test of the season. The first came in a four-point loss in Los Angeles against the Rams but the Falcons were down 21 points late and a blocked punt return for a touchdown and a safety made the score more respectable. The other three games were against three bad teams and overall, the early schedule is ranked No. 25 in strength compared to the No. 4 ranked schedule for Tampa Bay. The run first offense is in trouble here against a solid Tampa Bay rushing defense with the exception of last week and one that has Cordarrelle Patterson on IR leaving the bulk of the rushing to Tyler Allegier. This means the game could be put into the arm of Marcus Mariota and that is not what Atlanta wants as he comes in with a passer rating that is fifth lowest in the league. Defensively, the Falcons have three quarterback hurries on the season, yes three in total, and their 1.9 percent hurry percentage is the lowest in the NFL which is not ideal when facing Brady coming off a pair of losses and some rare scrutiny coming his way. 10* (460) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders +2 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Everyone is down on Washington and that is hard to provide pushback on as the Commanders have lost three straight games following a season opening win against Jacksonville. Two of the three losses were on the road where they were outgained by only 29 yards against Detroit and actually outgained Dallas by 18 yards in the loss last week while the home defeat came against Philadelphia. We are not saying Washington is a very good team but it is not a four to five-point underdog to Tennessee on a neutral field. One very quick comparison to show how close these teams are is to look at the top level of both sides. In total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense, Washington is ranked between No. 23 and No. 29 in all four categories while Tennessee is ranked between No. 22 and No. 29 in those categories so this is a wash. The Commanders struggled to score points the last two divisional games but they did score 28 and 27 points in the first two games of the season and now face a defense that is going to allow them to move the ball without much resistance. Tennessee allows 6.3 yards per play which is third highest in the league behind only Seattle and Detroit so do not believe anything you hear that the Titans possess a strong defense because they do not anymore. The Titans won for us last week against the Colts despite getting outgained as they benefitted from a +3 turnover differential and now at 2-2 overall, they are overpriced. Tennessee has been outgained in all four games and while that aforementioned defense can take a lot of the blame, the offense is not far behind. The Titans are bottom third in everything and while they have averaged 360 ypg in two home games, they have averaged only 215 ypg in two road games and while this will be the worst defense they have seen, Ryan Tannehill is not going to strike fear as his No. 15 quarterback rating is about right. Treylon Burks is out and while he has not lived up to expectations just yet, it shows the impact of the loss of A.J. Brown. 10* (464) Washington Commanders |
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10-08-22 | Oregon v. Arizona +13.5 | Top | 49-22 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. This is a very good spot for Arizona as it catches Oregon on a winning streak feeling good about itself and looking forward to a big game against UCLA next week. The Ducks got their doors blown off against Georgia in their series opener but have rolled through their last four games including impressive wins against BYU and at Washington St. and they are definitely in danger of a lookahead here. The Oregon offense has been just fine as expected and the big improvement was supposed to be the defense with Dan Lanning coming over from Georgia to take over as head coach but the unit has not come round yet as Oregon is ranked No. 72 in total defense and No. 98 in scoring defense. As for the offense, Bo Nix has been excellent at quarterback over the last four games with 12 touchdowns and just one interception but this is Bo Nix we are talking about and put him in a tough road environment at night and his SEC road nightmares could come back to life. We expected Arizona to have a turnaround season as we took the over 2.5/3 wins and a win or a push is assured but all tickets will cash and the Wildcats have a great opportunity to see where they actually are in the Pac 12 hierarchy. The Wildcats opened the season with a win over San Diego St. and while the Aztecs are not very good, it was on the road, it was a needed confidence boost and it was a dominating performance. The two losses came against Mississippi St. and California and while both were by more than two touchdowns, they were outgained by only a combined 195 total yards so both were closer than what the final score indicated. Arizona rolled Colorado last week which is not saying much but it was another opportunity to get some meaningful time for quarterback Jayden de Laura who is a transfer from Washington St. and has shown what he can do especially now being used to his new receivers. 10* (364) Arizona Wildcats |
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10-08-22 | Iowa v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our Big Ten Conference Game of the Year. The Big Ten has produced some early season surprises with Illinois being one of those as it is off to a 4-1 start including a 1-1 record in the conference and it could be 5-0. The loss to the Hoosiers was a tough one as Illinois outgained Indiana 448-362, had nine more first downs and controlled the clock for over 13 more minutes but had four turnovers and it had chances late as it got into Indiana territory on four straight possessions but resulted in just one field goal as it had a fumble, and interception and a turnover on downs at the Indiana four-yard line. The Illini have outgained all five opponents as they have been buoyed by a defense that has been incredible, ranking No. 1 in scoring defense and No. 3 in total defense and we saw what just happened to Wisconsin. While there might be the scare of a letdown, Illinois has not had a start like this in a long time so they are not going to look past this one, especially considering it is Iowa. This one sets up almost identical to another game we are playing based on one time intangible. The schedule worked in the favor of Illinois this week as they are playing at 7:30 ET which is the only Big Ten game with a kickoff scheduled past 4:00 ET so the Illini will have a significant home field edge as opposed to playing at 3:30 ET which was the original kickoff time. This is a rare instance for Illinois and we are going to back these unique occasions as this is just the second time in the last 20 games that the Illini are favored in a Big Ten game and they have not been favored over Iowa since 2008. Iowa recovered from its first loss of the season against Iowa St. but that next game was against Nevada and now at 3-2, the Hawkeyes are showing who they are. They have a strong defense but the offense is abysmal as they are ranked No. 119 or worse in all four major offensive categories. 10* (394) Illinois Fighting Illini |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 47 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Iowa St. is coming off a tough loss against the surprising Jayhawks as it missed three field goals late in the game that could have sent the game into overtime which came after a seven-point home loss against Baylor the previous week. The Cyclones need to shake those off quickly as they face one of the hottest teams in the Big XII and then are at Texas next week so a non-fully focused team this week could be a partial reason for a possible 0-4 start in the conference prior to their bye week. The defense has been exceptional as Iowa St. is ranked No. 8 overall and No. 11 in points allowed and it has been strong against both the run and the pass. Offensively, they have been below average and quarterback Hunter Dekkers has been pretty solid but his six interceptions has held him back and the Wildcats are nothing special on defense. The schedule worked in their favor this week as they are playing at 7:30 ET which is the only Big XII game with a kickoff scheduled past 3:30 ET and Iowa St. will have a significant home field edge as opposed to playing at 1:00 ET which was the original kickoff time. The Wildcats are coming off a pair of wins against Oklahoma and Texas Tech and that Sooners victory is not as strong anymore after their blowout loss against TCU. For the Kansas St. offense, it is basically what you see is what you get as the Wildcats are ranked No. 3 in rushing offense and No. 122 in passing offense and this is not an ideal style especially when facing a great defense and the style is only good for a total ranked offense of just No. 69. Adrian Martinez has carried the offense the last two weeks as he has seven rushing touchdowns and 319 yards on the ground against Oklahoma and Texas Tech but Iowa St. has the defense that can slow that down especially after seeing what the Cyclones did to Jalon Daniels last week despite the loss. 10* (356) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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10-08-22 | James Madison v. Arkansas State +11.5 | Top | 42-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. The public is starting to catch up to James Madison. In their first year at the FBS level, the Dukes are 4-0 and have covered all four games by a total of 61.5 points against the number. Their number got inflated last week against Texas St. and it was not enough and now they are playing their first ever road game as favorites and big ones for that matter. One cause for concern as that the Dukes know how to win on the road going back to the FCS days as they have won 13 straight away from home but of course, the opposition was much weaker and this is an interesting line. James Madison was getting six points in its only other road game this season and is now a double-digit favorite. The Dukes have been great on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 8 in scoring offense and No. 9 in scoring defense but it has come against a schedule ranked No. 157 in the nation. The ATS record of Arkansas St. offsets the James Madison spread record as the Red Wolves are 5-0 against the number but their success is not being taken into consideration in this spread based on our raw numbers so there is value on the home team. The Red Wolves are 2-3 to start the season and those two wins have already matched their win total from last season which two of their losses were close games late and the other defeat was at Ohio St. The offense is making strides as after being one of the worst in the country last season, they have been much more efficient and balanced and while facing a tough defense here, they will be able to keep up a chance for the outright upset is definitely in play. Quarterback James Blackman has been very solid as he has thrown for 1,212 yards on 69.7 percent completions with seven touchdowns and just one interception and he has big time experience coming from Florida St. 10* (354) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -3 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. We played against UTEP last week and going into the game, a question was asked. Which UTEP team shows up here? The one that narrowly defeated bad New Mexico St. (and we can add Charlotte to that now) team and lost by 17 points to an equally bad New Mexico team or the one that just defeated Boise St. by 17 points as a 16.5-point underdog? Last week, UTEP returned two fumbles for touchdowns and overall, had four takeaways which explains losing the yardage battle by 18 yards against the 49ers. Playing six games in the first six weeks of the season has its benefits as they know what they have, or at least should know what they have, and any lack of chemistry should be gone, but on the flip side, playing six straight weeks can be grueling especially with the way their schedule has panned out. The Miners have alternated home and road games through the first six contests so there has been no two-week stretch of being at home since late August. This team could be gassed. Louisiana Tech has gotten off to a rough start as it is 1-3 but the schedule has dictated that record as the lone victory came against Stephen F. Austin of the FCS while the losses on the road were at Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama. The game last week against the Jaguars would have been the one true game to look at to see where this team stands but nothing could come out of it as the Bulldogs had five turnovers including four interceptions from quarterback Parker McNeil so we can toss that out. Louisiana Tech came into the season with a new head coach in Sonny Cumbie and a new system to get the fledging offense back on track. He directed the Air Raid offenses at TCU and Texas Tech as offensive coordinator and if he can get the most out of the quarterback here, there should be plenty of points against this Miners defense. The small favorite collects. 10* (408) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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10-08-22 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -7 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This one has the makings of a name the score game for Central Michigan, similar to Kent St. last week as it outgained Ohio by 300 total yards but failed to cover for us, as the Chippewas are back home following a pair of road losses at Penn St. and Toledo to fall to 1-4 on the season. The schedule has been brutal with the other two losses coming against Oklahoma St. and South Alabama and the four losses have come against teams a combined 16-3. Coming off the loss against the Rockets, there is now work to be done in the MAC West with the Chippewas needing to go to 1-1 after this game with favorable schedule on the way to get some momentum going. The offense has been slowed down the last two weeks as Central Michigan managed only 31 points in the two contests yet the offense is still decent in the rankings thanks to previous success and now they face a defense that has been awful against FBS opponents. Taking a look at what the defense has done is not going to show much of what can take place going forward based on the difficulty of the slate. Ball St. is 2-3 to start the season with the wins coming against Murray St. of the FCS 31-0 and Northern Illinois last week by six points in double overtime as it overcame a 17-point deficit at half time. The offense has been pretty good over the last four games but only one of those was on the road which came against Georgia Southern and the defense has been the real story of why the Cardinals are not good now with not much expected to change. Taking away the 0 points and 155 yards allowed against Murray St. and the defensive averages go from an already bad 432.2 ypg and 33.6 ppg to 501.5 ypg and 42 ppg and anything north of 500 and 40 is not very good. A big issue has been allowing easy yards on the ground and that is heightened by the fact Ball St. has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns through its first five games. 10* (398) Central Michigan Chippewas |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. Typically, revenge comes into play following a bad loss the previous season but the situation is different here with Nevada being all amped up for this game not because of a loss but because of former head coach Jay Norvell coming back to Reno after bolting for Colorado St. last season prior to the Wolf Pack bowl game and taking many of the players with him. They have not forgotten what they were left with when they travelled to Ford Field for the Quick Lane Bowl against Western Michigan and were blown out by 28 points and outgained by 272 total yards. While the Broncos would normally be the revenge prey, Colorado St. has taken their place here. Nevada last lost three straight games and it has not been pretty with the three losses coming by 69 points combined with the last two coming on the road at Iowa and Air Force so the return home comes at a perfect time as does its bye week. Quarterback Nate Cox returned after not playing against Iowa and while he did not put up big numbers against the Flacons, the whole offense was shut down but that will not be the case here. The Norvell move was a questionable one as it was considered a lateral move and it clearly has not started well. Losses against Michigan and Washington St. were expected but home losses against Middle Tennessee St. and Sacramento St. of the FCS were not and the numbers are ugly. The Rams are dead last in the country in total offense and No. 130 in scoring offense and the defense has done nothing to keep it close as they are ranked No. 103 and No. 126 in those categories respectively on the defensive side. Colorado St. is also coming off a bye week with is beneficial to try and regroup and hope the time off helped quarterback Clay Millen who is questionable after leaving the last game. While not very good, he is their best option and a dinged up version on the field is better than nothing but still not prime. 10* (308) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. It has been a strange season for Indianapolis through four games. The Colts outgained Houston by 218 total yards yet the game ended up being a tie and they followed that up with a 24-0 loss in Jacksonville as they were outplayed throughout and it was the eighth straight road loss to the Jaguars. They got into the win column against Kansas City despite losing the yardage battle 259-203 and then last week, Indianapolis lost to Tennessee by a touchdown despite outgaining the Titans 365-243. The common trait in the four games was turnover differential as the Colts are currently -6 in turnover margin which is tied with second worst in the league and anything close to even would likely have Indianapolis sitting at 3-1 or 2-2 at the very least. The win over Kansas City was considered a must win and the football gods granted that and coming off another defeat, they are in the same spot with another must win game and at the very least, they are getting a favorable line. While Matt Ryan has been inconsistent and Jonathan Taylor has yet to break loose to keep the offense well down the list, the defense is keeping them competitive as they are ranked No. 6 in total defense and No. 14 in scoring defense. Denver is also coming off a loss to fall to 2-2 as the offense continues to stumble along as last week was a great opportunity in a great matchup but the Broncos managed just 299 total yards and 12 first downs. They also suffered a big loss as running back Javonte Williams was lost for the season with a torn ACL and now the running game has to count on Melvin Gordon who has lost four fumbles already and has been the worst over the last four years. Like the Colts, the defense kept things close the first three weeks but last week against Las Vegas, they allowed 385 yards and 25 first downs so the Colts can build off that. Through the early part of the season, the Broncos look like they have the coaching disadvantage here as Nathanial Hackett still has not called a good game and being in the spotlight once again is not ideal. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa last game. this situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-05-22 | SMU v. Central Florida -3 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the UCF KNIGHTS for our AAC Game of the Month. This game between SMU and UCF has moved a second time as the game had originally been pushed back from Saturday to Sunday but was moved back three more days with the schedule allowing it to do so with both teams having bye weeks in Week 6. This is a big disadvantage for SMU which has had to change travel plans numerous times during the week and while their offense has been keeping things competitive, the defense has struggled the last two games to prevent the wins. The offensive gameplan should be fairly straightforward for the Knights and that is no establish the run to open up the passing game and they should not divert from this if there is not early success. SMU is hit or miss with the rushing defense as it is ranked No. 105 in the country, allowing 184.8 ypg and has been outrushed by all three FBS opponents. UCF has the personnel with the passing game although it has not been put fully on display yet because the running game has been so good as the Knights are ranked No. 3 in the nation with 274.5 ypg. But that passing game can have its coming out party here as the Mustangs allowed 510 yards passing on 75.5 percent completions, 9.6 ypa and five touchdowns against Maryland and TCU. The Knights defense has been outstanding as they are No. 26 in the country overall and No. 8 in points allowed with just 13.5 ppg and they have not played slouches as Florida Atlantic and Louisville are both ranked in the top 60 in total offense and while this will be the best offense they have seen, it is also the best defense the Mustangs have encountered. This line was -3.5 last week when the game was still scheduled to be played on Saturday and has not moved much and there is now value because of the travel aspect as it has disrupted the Mustangs not only in their itinerary but also the practice and preparation has been thrown all off course. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (422) UCF Knights |
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10-03-22 | Rams +1.5 v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Rams have won two straight games following a season opening loss against the Bills and can take sole possession of first place in the NFC West at 3-1 including an all-important 2-0 division record with both coming on the road. Los Angeles has an offense that has yet to show much as it is ranked No. 26 overall including No. 30 in rushing offense and this does not seem to be the ideal matchup to get the offense rolling but while the 49ers and strong on defense across the board, they have not played a team with a semblance of an offense. The Rams defense has gotten better over the last three games after getting lit up by the Bills in that opener. This is the last time the Rams leave home in October as they have three straight home games along with a bye week so this victory could set the stage for a mini run that could space them out in the division prior to the second half of the season. San Francisco lost a tough one last week in Denver and the offense has managed 10 points in two of its first three games. Jimmy Garoppolo remains erratic at quarterback and while he faced a tough defense last week, the Rams are not far off and he did struggle against a much worse Seahawks defense. Part of the issue against the Broncos was the 49ers running game that was non-existent after two big games to open the season and the loss of Elijah Mitchell is a big one and while Jeff Mitchell was ok last week, nearly half of his 75 yards came on a 37-yard run so he averaged just 3.4 rpc on his other 11 carries. They will be out for revenge from the NFC Championship last season but that is not an angle to accept based on this being an early season divisional matchup for both teams. San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in its last twelve games as a divisional home favorite. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last five seasons including 2-0 yesterday (Tennessee and New England). 10* (279) Los Angeles Rams |
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10-02-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Josh McDaniels head coaching experiment is nearing a 0-2 start after he did not last two years in Denver and is now off to a 0-3 start in Las Vegas. The Raiders tried a late comeback last week only to fall short in Tennessee after a missed two-point conversion and it is safe to say their playoff hopes are already gone. Since 1980, only six teams have made the playoffs following a 0-3 start and that is out of 182 teams to start the season with that futility. Las Vegas has been close as each game has come down to the final ticks and while that is good experience to have, coming out on the wrong end each time is mentally tough and while this is a must win game, doing so against this defense will be a problem. 0-3 home favorites are just 8-20 ATS over the last 35 seasons. The Las Vegas defense has holes all over the place and was lit up by Ryan Tannehill last week as it is now ranked No. 26 in passing defense and now faces arguably the best quarterback it has seen. Denver is 2-1 despite an offense that has failed to surpass 16 points on offense but the situations have hurt those numbers. A pair of fumbles at the one-yard line against Seattle did them in and they faced one of the top defensive teams in the league last week but found a way at the end thanks to the quarterback. As mentioned last week, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 22 in QBR as he is completing just over than 59 percent of his passes but now three games in and facing a horrible defense, this can finally be his breakout game with the Broncos. Denver has relied on its defense to stay above .500 as the Broncos are ranked No. 3 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring defense and while they have faced some poor offenses, the Raiders have been nothing special with a bad offensive line and while Derek Carr has been sacked only seven times, he has been under constant pressure and the Broncos bring in a top ten pressure rank. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. this situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Denver Broncos |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +9.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Patriots fell to 1-2 on the season following a home loss against the Ravens despite outgaining Baltimore by 83 yards as turnovers were the difference with New England having four costly ones. That has been the problem in keeping the scoring down with the quarterback being the biggest detriment but things could be different here. Mac Jones will be out for the Patriots but at this point, going with Brian Hoyer is not necessarily a downgrade with his veteran presence as Jones is coming off a no-touchdown, three-interception game as his passer rating has plummeted to 76.2 which is ahead of only Justin Field among qualified quarterbacks. Yet, the line has gone up four points after it was announced he will be out and he is not worth four points unless there is a severe backup downgrade which is not the case here. New England is ranked No. 10 in both total offense and total defense which is rare for a losing team to possess and while we expect Hoyer to be just fine, the defense will play a big role here against an offense that has not clicked yet. The Packers have bounced back from their opening week loss against the Vikings but beating the Bears was nothing special and while taking out Tampa Bay may look good, the Buccaneers are far from full strength on offense so the last two weeks have inflated their defensive rankings. Aaron Rodgers is third in the league in completion percentage but has not been able to get a ton of production with a lot of check downs as his yards per attempt average is way down the list and he has only four touchdown passes. Offensively, they are No. 13 overall but just No. 27 in scoring and limiting Green Bay to field goals is of importance in this matchup with the big point spread in what should be a closer than expected game. a big weakness of the Packers defense has been against the run and we will see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to take pressure of Hoyer and they can succeed. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) New England Patriots |
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10-02-22 | Titans +4 v. Colts | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC South Game of the Month. Indianapolis got over the hump following a pair of embarrassments against Houston and Jacksonville and while we were on the Colts last week, it was a fortunate victory as it was more of a Chiefs loss than a Colts win. The offense remains stagnate as the Colts are averaging only 13.3 ppg which is dead last in the NFL and after putting up 517 total yards against the Texans, they have put up only 477 total yards combined in their last two games. Matt Ryan is coming off his best game with a 105.9 passer rating but the offense still stalled and he still does not look comfortable and his overall rating of 77.2 is third lowest in the NFL, ahead of only Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Defensively, Indianapolis has been solid and last week could have gotten out of hand but Kansas City had four drives inside the Colts 40-yard line and came away with just three total points. Tennessee is also coming off its first win of the season as it defeated Las Vegas which was a much needed bounce back from that blowout loss against the Bills. The Titans won by only two points but were in control throughout but let up in the second half and were a Raiders missed two-point conversion away from a likely overtime game. Tennessee scored touchdowns on its firth three possessions of the game and can certainly build on that in this divisional game as they are getting value this week based on the results of last week and not what actually transpired as those results could have been a lot different. The Titans have been below average on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 26 in total offense and total defense with most of that due to the Bills loss but the line has moved in our favor despite 75 percent of early tickets being on Tennessee giving us a solid reverse line move. We saw this last week on the other side as the majority of the money came in on the Chiefs yet the line came down with sharp Colts action taking more priority. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (253) Tennessee Titans |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks +4 v. Lions | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Detroit is off to a 1-2 start with both losses being close and it blew a big chance last week against the Vikings as the Lions allowed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by four points. In the first game against the Eagles, Detroit lost by just three points but was dominated throughout as it was a late charge in garbage time that got the game close. While they take a step down in competition here, they are now in some unfamiliar territory looking for a result that has been rare as they go from underdogs in the first three games to a significant favorite this week and the Lions have won only two times by more than a touchdown in their last 31 games. The offense has led the way but Detroit is down players on Sunday as it two top playmakers and banged up from last week with D'Andre Swift ruled out and Amon-Ra St. Brown very questionable and these are two big hits on the No. 3 ranked offense in the league. This team is horrible defensively as they are ranked No. 29 in total defense and No. 32 in scoring defense and while the Seattle offense has been in slow motion, this is a good matchup for the Seahawks. Seattle played well last week against Atlanta but was unable to make a stop when needed and penalties and a crucial sack killed its last chance on offense yet it still outgained the Falcons by 34 yards. The Seahawks have struggled in the running game this season as they have been outrushed in all three games but finally get a positive matchup here with Swift on the sidelines while facing a Detroit defense that is ranked No. 27 against the rush and this will be a big dynamic for this game. Detroit is a blitz-heavy defense and that could bite the Lions here as Geno Smith is a veteran that can pick up the blitz and work through it as he is 22-25 for 204 yards and one touchdown when facing that pressure. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. this situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (261) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | Top | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Oregon trailed 34-22 with just 3:49 left against Washington St. last week but the Cougars gave it away and the Ducks capped the comeback with a 27-yard interception return for a touchdown to take a two-score lead with a minute remaining. It was a fortunate win for the Ducks which have now won three straight games since getting crushed in their opener against Georgia but this is now a tough spot against what we consider an undervalued opponent. The Ducks offense has been rolling since that game against the Bulldogs and they are currently No. 18 in total offense and No. 26 in scoring offense with good balance and they should be able to move the ball again this week but it is the other side that is the concern. Defensively, they have not been very good, currently sitting No. 79 in total defense and No. 94 in scoring defense despite a game against Eastern Washington where it allowed only 187 yards of offense and 14 points. Stanford opened the season with an easy win against Colgate but the schedule amped up quickly with back-to-back games against USC and Washington, the two best teams in the Pac 12 that are ranked No. 6 and No. 15 respectively. The Cardinal lost both games by double-digits but held their own, getting outgained by only 85 ypg, and now they are getting a bigger number than last week which is based on the scoreboard. The running game will be of the utmost importance here, not only to keep some balance within the offense but to keep the Ducks offense off the field. Stanford has a two-headed running back combo in E.J. Smith and Casey Filkins that have combined for 403 yards on 72 carries (5.6 ypc) and quarterback Tanner McKee had a solid game against the Huskies last week but a -3 turnover differential proved to be pivotal. Revenge is in play for Oregon following a loss to Stanford on the road last season in overtime and that was the last time the Cardinal have covered a game as they are 0-10 ATS over their last 10 games going back to last season and the value now is too big as that futile streak finally comes to an end. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal |
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10-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +9.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Tulsa returns home following a battle at Mississippi where it ended up losing 35-27 as it played through adversity and a tough environment so easily cover and put a scare into the Rebels. The Golden Hurricane came back from a 21-point deficit to make it a one-possession game as they shut out the Rebels in the second half and had three different opportunities to try and tie the game but failed each time. The adversity that came into play was not the fact it was playing a team from the SEC, and a very good one, but that the offense did its part with a backup quarterback after starter Davis Brin was injured and Braylon Braxton took over and did a fine job in first real time playing experience. Brin is day-to-day but with Braxton getting the reps with the first team in practice this week, it will be fine either way. The other loss this season came against Wyoming in the season opener in overtime despite outgaining the Cowboys by 122 total yards so this team could be 3-1 with an outside shot at 4-0 had they gotten a late break last week. Cincinnati is coming off a win over Indiana by 21 points but outgained the Hoosiers by just 394-348 as turnovers hurt Indiana which included a fumble recovery for a touchdown by the Bearcats. They have now won three games in a row by an average of 31.7 ppg and they are now gaining votes in the latest AP Top 25 poll but this is a team that is still hard to get sold on, especially laying big lumber on the road especially against a competent opponent. Wins over Miami Ohio and Kennesaw St. were impressive blowouts but against much weaker opposition and one quick line observation shows that the Bearcats were favored by 16.5 points against Indiana at home last week which puts them under a two-touchdown favorite on a neutral field and that is roughly the same number here based on their road chalk and Tulsa is a higher ranked team than Indiana across most power ratings. This is a quality team no doubt but after blowing away most every team last season, Cincinnati is going to be involved in more competitive games this year and this is one of those instances. 10* (160) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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10-01-22 | UTEP v. Charlotte +3 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHARLOTTE 49ERS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Which UTEP team shows up here? The one that narrowly defeated a bad New Mexico St. team and lost by 17 points to an equally bad New Mexico team or the one that just defeated Boise St. by 17 points as a 16.5-point underdog? Typically, we go with the latter based on recent form being more important than what happened prior to that but in this case, it was a monumental home win for the Miners and now hitting the road against a team they have no interest in spells letdown. It was monumental based on the fact it was the first time UTEP won as a double-digit home underdog in over a decade. The Miners came into the Boise St. game 1-3 that also included blowout losses against North Texas and Oklahoma and now they are favored on the road and by more than what they were favored by at New Mexico and that is the recency bias rearing its ugly head and we will take advantage with a Charlotte team that is back to full strength. We played against the 49ers last week and they held their own for a half against South Carolina but they imploded with turnovers and mistakes in the second half which led to the 56-20 defeat. Starting quarterback Chris Reynolds was solid in the season opener against Florida Atlantic but was injured and he missed the next two games before returning against Georgia St. where he went 31-43 for 401 yards with five touchdowns and an interception. He expectedly struggled against South Carolina but now the schedule is on his side as this is his first time playing at home and against a defense that has not faced a decent offense the last three games and yes that includes Boise St. which is ranked No. 122 in the country in total offense. Defensively, Charlotte has been one of the worst teams in the country as it is ranked No. 127 or worse in total defense, rushing defense, passing defense and scoring defense but now faces an offense that has scored more than 20 points only once and has reached only 400 total yards just once as well. Charlotte is in a great situational spot here and is definitely the potential live dog back home. 10* (210) Charlotte 49ers |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +9 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the UL-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS for our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. South Alabama came a few seconds away from a major upset at UCLA and instead of folding in a letdown spot, the Jaguars responded with a strong effort defensively against Louisiana Tech in a 38-14 win. The Jaguars are one of nine teams still perfect against the spread this season and at four games, that is the magic number we go against with the public going to be lining up on their side based on the spread record and recent results. After putting up over 500 total yards of offense in its first two games, South Alabama has failed to reach 400 yards of offense in its last two games and could struggle once again. While the scheduling situation is in the favor of South Alabama, the overreaction of this line is too much to look past Louisiana here especially with the line already having risen by a field goal since opening. The Cajuns easily won their first two games of the season at home but they have gone on the road the last two weeks and lost both games outright despite being heavily favored in both. The loss against rival UL-Monroe was an especially tough one and after those two games, we will see a focused bunch this week in their return home. Consistency on offense has been the issue as the quarterback situation is still in limbo after the first month of the season. Coming into the season, we noted in our preview that there will be a battle between Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge and seeing that both have different styles, both could see decent time on the field and that has been the case with both players seeing action in all four games. Balance will be key however as Lafayette will have to get the running game going as it currently sits No. 112 in the country in rushing offense with the inexperienced offensive line now four games in. Lafayette was a 12-point road favorite last season on the road, which means there is a three-touchdown adjustment almost to the calendar year and the Cajuns have thrived in this spot as they have been home underdogs three times over the last five-plus seasons and have won all of those outright including a 28-point thrashing of Appalachian St. last season. 10* (156) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
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10-01-22 | Ohio v. Kent State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the KENT ST. GOLDEN FLASHES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Kent St. returns home to open MAC play as it played three of its four nonconference games on the road at Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia and held its own. The offense could not do much in those games as expected but was a point and a half away from covering all three of those. Now being battle tested, the Golden Flashes face a team they can devour as the offense can come back to life like it did against Long Island and while Ohio is clearly a better team than that, laying 30 points less against the Bobcats certainly helps. Getting a true read on the offense and defense is hard in a spot like this considering the elite opposition they have faced, the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country thus far, but it does good going forward. If this sounds familiar, it is. Last season after a 1-3 nonconference start, the losses against Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, the Golden Flashes righted the ship, going 6-2 in the conference and went to the MAC Championship. Quarterback Collin Schlee is finding his footing and the one-two punch of Marquez Cooper and Xavier Williams is potent after the two combined for 2,017 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2021. Ohio took out Florida Atlantic in the season opener as it barely held off a late charge from the Owls and that defensive effort was a sign of things to come. The Bobcats then had a pair of tough road games at Penn St. and Iowa St. and the defense was lit up for 572 yards and 463 yards respectively which was going to be a given but last week was a total debacle as they hosted Fordham and gave up 52 points and 640 yards of offense and basically had to rally the entire second half to pull out the victory. Yes, Fordham of the FCS. The Bobcats are ranked No. 130 in total defense and No. 127 in scoring defense so it will be up to the offense to try and keep pace and we do not see that happening on the road as giving up 33 points to Oklahoma and 39 points to Georgia is a win by the Kent St. defense so matter how you look at it. Last season, the Bobcats finished No. 88 in total offense and No. 105 in scoring offense and are on pace for more of the same. 10* (204) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 105 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our Pac 12 Game of the Month. UCLA is off to 4-0 start following a Pac 12 opening win over Colorado this past Saturday and are back home to face its toughest test of the season and the line is telling us just that. There is not a whole lot of confidence in the Bruins, especially following a one-point win over South Alabama at home two weeks ago but this is a talented team and that scare against the Jaguars is just what this team needed. Against Colorado, UCLA won the yardage battle 515-309 including a 249-51 edge in rushing yards and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson had another strong game, going 19-23 for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns and on the season, he is completing 74.8 percent of his passes while tossing eight touchdowns and only one interception and overall, he is the second highest rated quarterback on the conference, right behind his opponent on Friday. Head coach Chip Kelly made two excellent points heading into this week as he expressed that the conditioning of this team is outstanding as the Bruins have outscored opponents 78-21 in the second half including two shutouts. Also, he noted an edge because of the NFL experience of his coaches which gives them a preparation edge when playing on a short week. Washington is also off to a 4-0 start after another blowout win as it took out Stanford 40-22 and with the ease of the victories, the Huskies are catching some early CFP buzz, mostly due to the impressive win over Michigan St. But, that win has lost a lot of luster after the Spartans were blown out at home against Minnesota this past Saturday so while still a quality win by the Huskies, it is far from what it looked like two weeks ago. Like UCLA, the strength of schedule has not been great and this is their first venture on the road after playing the first four games at home. While Washington is ranked No. 5 in total offense and No. 22 in total defense, the Bruins are not far behind as they are ranked No. 12 in total offense and No. 20 in total defense and the scheduling is in their favor more than this being the first Huskies road game as this is the first UCLA game being played later than 2:00 local time so the atmosphere will be the best all season. Here, we play against road favorites after one or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (112) UCLA Bruins |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Dolphins are coming off a big home win over Buffalo in a game they probably should not have won and have taken over first place in the AFC East after their perfect 3-0 start. The upset victory already put Miami in a bad situation but adding to that is hitting the road on a short week after playing a game where the heat index of over 100 degrees was a huge factor and that is something that can affect the players going into this game. The Dolphins were outgained by 285 total yards as the offense managed only 212 yards and while that was against what is considered one of the best defenses in the league, Buffalo was banged up on that side of the ball with the heat taking its toll on others that made it through. This comes after the wild win in Baltimore the previous week where Miami came back from a 21-point fourth quarter deficit and a divisional home win over New England to open the season. We have already seen this number move in the Dolphins favor with early money hitting the Bengals side and will likely continue to do so. Cincinnati finally got into the win column as it defeated the Jets by 15 points following an overtime loss against Pittsburgh and a loss against Dallas and its backup quarterback. The Bengals were crushed by turnovers and sacks in those first two games and they kept those in check against New York as they gave it away only once while surrendering just two sacks. They get a break again here as the Dolphins have an average pass rush where they have accumulated only six sacks through the first three games and the wear and tear from the Sunday heat is not going to help. Joe Burrow is coming off his best game thanks to the offensive line that kept him mostly upright and the Dolphins defense comes in ranked No. 31 in total yards and No. 31 in passing yards so he should continue his ascent back. On the other side, Cincinnati has played well defensively, albeit against some poor offensive units, but are ranked No. 9 in total defense despite being put into some tough field position situations from the offense. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 86-36 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (102) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Giants have escaped the first two weeks of the season. New York won at Tennessee after going for and making a two-point conversion after a touchdown with a minute remaining and then took the game following a missed field goal from the Titans and last week against the Panthers, the Giants made a late game-winning 56-yard field goal, one of four field goals on the day as the offense continues to stall. New York is ranked No. 23 in total offense and No. 31 in passing offense and while it is a small sample size, this is what we expected. This line has flipped which is no surprise based on the Prescott injury. The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 games following consecutive wins, failing to cover all eight of those, and speaking of consecutive, they have covered only one time over their last night games after consecutive losses to the opponents so no double-revenge factor here. While the Cowboys offense is without Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush played a solid game at quarterback in relief as he went 19-31 for 235 yards and a touchdown and it is an edge that he has been in the system for a few years and he responded last season as well in his lone start against Minnesota in a primetime road game as he was 24-40 for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The defense has been great thus far as Dallas is top ten in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense through two games. This is a swing game for the Cowboys as they are no longer the favorite to win the NFC East and falling two games behind the Eagles in the division is not ideal after only three games. Dallas is 11-3 ATS over its last 14 conference games while coving eight of its last nine games on the road. Here, we play against home favorites outscored by opponents by four or more ppg last season, versus division opponents. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (489) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 58 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Denver escaped with a win against the Texans last week as it won 16-9 following a season opening loss at Seattle and with the two unexpected results, the Broncos come in as home underdogs. A lot of this can be attributed to head coach Nathaniel Hackett who has made some questionable calls and is already considered a questionable hire but he should settle in once he gets more familiar with his personnel. To be fair, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 16 in QBR as he is completing fewer than 59 percent of his passes but he can be given a hall pass here being involved in a brand new system and now in his third game, he should only get better even though he will be facing the best defense he has seen through three games. The Broncos defense has been strong since a slow start against Seattle in the opener as they have not allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters. We can see Denver improving game-by-game going forward and can show what is has right here. The 49ers lost quarterback Trey Lance for the season but having the best backup in the league helps as Jimmy Garoppolo came in and had a decent game, going 13-21 for 154 yards and a touchdown but the offense was not great overall with just 373 total yards. Garoppolo is definitely an upgrade here based on his experience and his 37-18 record as a starter in the NFL but as mentioned, he will be facing a tough defense here and easily the best one the 49ers have faced in the early part of the season. Similar to Denver, San Francisco has played no one so it is hard to get a measure on this team especially playing its first game in horrible weather but we do know this is a good roster but not in a good spot here with the Broncos playing their second primetime game and first one at home. This is definitely an overreaction line from last week as the line has flipped from Denver being favored at home, which it should be, to the 49ers now being favored based on the lookahead line. 10* (488) Denver Broncos |
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09-25-22 | Falcons +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC Game of the Month. The Falcons have looked better than expected through the first two game as they lost a tough one at home against the Saints and fell short in the comeback against the Rams last week. This would normally be a tough travel situation for Atlanta playing out west in back-to-back weeks but the Falcons have practiced in Seattle all week instead of making another round trip to the west coast and that is a big edge. The Falcons have a big edge in this matchup in the running game as they are ranked No. 7 offensively and No. 15 defensively and going up against bad rushing units on both sides. Marcus Mariota has done a decent job in his first season in Atlanta as he is ranked No. 11 in QBR at 59.4 and his completion percentage of 62.7 percent should see a big increase here against a Seattle defense that is without its best player in safety Jamal Adams who is gone for the season. And he has done this without tight end Kyle Pitts who has only four catches which is surprising with Mariota typically targeting tight ends in check down spots. This is only the second time that the Seahawks have been favored with Geno Smith at quarterback with the first coming against Jacksonville last season and while the Falcons are not considered a very good team, the Seattle offense has really only had one good quarter on offense through the first two games. The only scoring for the Seahawks last week came from an 86-yard blocked field goal return by Mike Jackson as the offense stalled with a poor game from Smith and no running game to back him up. The Seahawks have been outgained 806-469 in their first two games and they are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing at only 56 ypg. The defense has been ok but not enough to carry the anemic offense as the Seahawks are ranked No. 24 in total defense and passing defense and No. 25 in rushing defense and while the scoring defense is ranked No. 15, that can be attributed to the two Denver fumbles near the goal line that resulted in zero points. This is not a good team at any level. 10* (483) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +6 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. No one in the public wants to bet on a team that was shutout in its previous game but that is exactly what we are going against here. The Colts were blanked 24-0 against Jacksonville which was shockingly their eight straight loss to the Jaguars on the road. That dropped them to 0-1-1 following a tie against the Texans in Week One and to come away without a victory against the two worst teams in the division is a problem. It was a tale of two different games as Indianapolis racked up 517 yards against Houston and that total offensive output went down by nearly 300 yards against the Jaguars as Matt Ryan was terrible by going 16-30 for 195 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions but he is now playing in his first home game. the situation could not be much worse for the Colts as 0-2 teams struggle to make the postseason and with the third game against a Super Bowl contender, it may look bleak but a close game is all we need with this number. The majority of the money has come in on the Chiefs yet the line has come down with sharp action taking more priority so we are getting a solid reverse line move and the public could push this number back up closer to game time. The Chiefs have looked every bit the Super Bowl contender as they destroyed Arizona and then took out the Chargers are home last Thursday night but are now in a tough spot going back on the road against a desperate team. There is not much bad to say about Kansas City as the offense has been just fine without Tyreke Hill but the defense did struggle last week as it allowed over 400 yards and was bailed out by a pick six from 99 yards that caused a 14-point swing and ended up being the difference but still failed to cover. The Chiefs may have a lookahead as they have a big game at Tampa Bay next week. NFL home underdogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 occurrences. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that was a good offensive team from last season averaging 24 or more. This situation is 46-23 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (472) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-25-22 | Bengals -6 v. Jets | Top | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 51 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets are coming off a miracle win over the Browns and the reason it can be considered a miracle is that they were a Cleveland kneel down away from losing 23-14 but Nick Chubb elected to take the touchdown allowing enough time for a touchdown drive-onsides kick recovery-touchdown drive finish for New York. The Jets were getting dominated up to that point as they had been outgained in the fourth quarter 136-8 going into those final two drives. Joe Flacco looked like the Joe Flacco that once ruled the powerful Ravens offense but we cannot see him putting together another effort like last week. But wait. He has produced two straight 300+ yard games passing so maybe New York is on to something here as opposed to starting Mike White but it took Flacco 103 pass attempts to get to those numbers and his 6.0 yards per attempt average is tied for No. 28 in the league and he happens to be tied with his opponent but more on that later. If the Jets had lost like they should have, this line would be a lot higher. Cincinnati has fallen into the Super Bowl hangover scenario as it has lost its first two games against teams that did not start the same quarterback last season. That is not ideal and while teams have had a hard time getting into the playoffs after a 0-2, this is the ideal matchup to right the ship. After a five-turnover and seven-sack game against the Steelers in Week One, Joe Burrow was sacked six times against Dallas as the offensive line, which made offseason improvements, has not looked good but the first two games were against good pass rushing defenses and Burrow will not be facing big pressure for the first time. The Jets have only three sacks and five pressures this season per Pro Football Reference so we should see Burrow go off for a big game finally. Cincinnati has moved from -6 to -4.5 based on the results from last week after being -7 last week at Dallas and while the Cowboys were without Dak Prescott and a few other key starters, the Jets are not nearly a field goal better than the current Dallas team so there is solid value here. 10* (465) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-24-22 | Charlotte v. South Carolina -22 | Top | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. South Carolina is done with its toughest back-to-back set of games this season after facing Arkansas and Georgia the last two weeks, although a season-ending back-to-back against Tennessee and Clemson ranks up there too, and it remains home following a 48-7 loss to the Bulldogs. With a game against South Carolina St. on deck, there is no lookahead and they want to right the ship here and should have no problem doing so. South Carolina has faced three teams that like to and can run the ball with success and all of those teams took advantage as they averaged 236 ypg on 46.3 carries (5.1 ypc) but now it gets a break. Charlotte has run the ball a decent amount considering it has played from behind in the majority of its games and there has been no success as the 49ers have averaged 97.8 ypg on 28.5 carries (3.4 ypc). Sure, it can be argued they are facing a poor rushing defense but a look at the strength of schedule will tell a different story with the Gamecocks having faced the No. 6 ranked schedule and the 49ers going against the No. 84 ranked slate. Charlotte picked up its first win of the season after a 0-3 start as it defeated Georgia St. in a game it never should have won. The 49ers scored with under a minute remaining to seal the victory after the Panthers took the lead in their possession right before that. They did have their best offensive performance of the season with 501 total yards but the defense allowed 602 total yards so coming away with a win despite getting outgained by over 100 yards is very fortunate. Charlotte has been outgained in all four games by at least 100 yards and by an average of 178.8 ypg and we cannot see it keeping up with a Power Five team, similar to the game against Maryland where it lost 56-21 and was outgained 619-388. The 49ers were able to pass all over Georgia St. last week for 401 yards but do not expect anything close to that here. An added bonus is that this game as originally scheduled for 12 ET but was moved to 7:30 ET and a rowdy night crowd is just what the Gamecocks need. Here, we play against road underdogs getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 62-21 ATS (74.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (318) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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09-24-22 | Southern Miss +13 v. Tulane | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Tulane is coming off a huge upset at Kansas St. last week and is off to a 3-0 start where it also defeated a pair of cupcakes in Massachusetts and Alcorn St. The Tulane defense ruled in the second half as it shut out the Wildcats, forcing four punts and stopping Kansas St. on fourth down three times. The Green Wave had two scoring drives of 53 and 52 yards after two of those fourth down stops to score the final 10 points. Both teams had 336 total yards, Tulane had an 18-15 first down edge and both punted seven times as third down conversions were hard to come by as Tulane was 1-12 while Kansas St. was 2-15. While the defense was impressive, they faced a Wildcats offense that has their shortcomings and while allowing a total of 10 points in the first two games is certainly impressive, the opposition had a lot to do with that. The offense struggled last week and faces an underrated defense this week that kept Miami Fla. in check for most of that game. Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games coming off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. Southern Mississippi opened the season with a pair of losses against Liberty in four overtimes and Miami Fla. but rebounded last week with a 64-10 win over Northwestern St. as it outgained the Demons 588-234 and while it came against a team from the FCS, it was a needed confidence boost heading into its last nonconference game of the season. The Golden Eagles bring back 16 starters and has the No. 7 ranked returning production in the country so this is a very deep team that is getting a huge number in this spot. The defense from last season was not great as they finished No. 80 in points allowed but that was a bit skewed as the offense had 31 turnovers, the most in the nation, that led to the defense being pinned leading to scores on short fields which upped the points allowed and falsely reduced the length of scoring drives and this is a unit loaded with talent at all three levels. On offense, the Golden Eagles exploded last week and ball control will be key here with Frank Gore, Jr., who is averaging 5.9 ypc, being a pivotal piece. Southern Mississippi is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (409) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
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09-24-22 | James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. James Madison came into the 2022 season with a few unknowns, namely how would it handle the jump into the FBS? The Dukes came over from a very successful run in the FCS ranks following a 12-2 record last season including a 7-1 record in the CAA to win their third straight conference championship. No. 3 seed James Madison rolled over SE Louisiana and Montana in the first two rounds of the FCS playoffs before succumbing to No. 2 seed North Dakota St., the eventual National Champion by six points. It has been so far, so good for James Madison as it has rolled over its two opponents Middle Tennessee St. and Norfolk St. by a combined score of 107-14. The Dukes take a step up in class and will be playing on the road for the first time but this team is loaded and it could not be catching a better spot for their first ever Sun Belt Conference game. Not only has the host gone through the emotions of a full season in just three games but James Madison is coming off a bye week which was an added bonus prior to kicking off conference action. Appalachian St. opened the season with a crushing loss against North Carolina as a missed two-point conversion (twice) prevented overtime. The Mountaineers then went to Texas A&M and defeated the Aggies as close to three-touchdown underdogs and then there was last week. The Mountaineers took a fourth quarter, three-point lead but Troy retook the lead and then took a safety in its own end zone to keep a two-point lead but Appalachian St. tossed a 53-yard Hail Mary as time expired to win the game. We played against them last week to get the cover and will do so again here in what is the ultimate letdown spot. They have played good enough to win all three games for sure and now they face the unknown which is another advantage for the road team that has something to prove. Appalachian St. is ranked No. 38 in total offense and No. 46 in scoring offense and faces the top ranked total defense in the country albeit against a much softer schedule but do not be surprised to see the fireworks going the other way this week for the Mountaineers that are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games as a single-digit favorite. 10* (357) James Madison Dukes |
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09-24-22 | Buffalo +6.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 50-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our MAC Game of the Month. Eastern Michigan is coming off a major upset at Arizona St. last Saturday and the whole week it has heard about how good it is and there was certainly celebration taking place throughout. We are basing this play partly because of the line and going against what the public will perceive as a very short price based on last week therefore we are going opposite as there is more to Eastern Michigan than last week. The Eagles opened the season against Eastern Kentucky from the FCS and snuck out an eight-point win despite getting outgained by 97 total yards as they benefitted from five turnovers. They then went to Louisiana and got thumped by the Cajuns by 28 points before last week and it is safe to say that Arizona St. had plenty of issues going into that game considering how fast Herm Edwards was fired after the loss and now reports coming out about information being leaked to opponents. While it was a good win over a Power Five team, there is more to it than that. Eastern Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Buffalo is off to a 0-3 start following a 12-point loss against Coastal Carolina last week but the game was not decided until late and the Bulls could have been excused for coming in flat following a loss against Holy Cross the previous week on a Hail Mary to end the game. Buffalo opened the season with an expected loss against Maryland although it was a competitive game through the first half until the Terrapins scored on a 70-yard touchdown to open the second half and the Bulls did a good job against a very strong Maryland offense. The season is far from lost at 0-3 with this being the conference opener and they could not be catching their opponent in a better spot. Overall, the numbers are pretty similar with the offenses sitting below average and the defenses very below average with both teams playing a similar strength of schedule. The line has already risen two points and would not be surprised to see it get higher. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 58-23 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (355) Buffalo Bulls |
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09-24-22 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Clemson is off to a 3-0 start but there is something skeptical about it. They were three games the Tigers never should have been threatened in, which on the scoreboard they were not, as they were favored by at least 24 points in all three games and won them all by at least 23 points. Last week, they were up just 13-6 at the break and they broke it open in the third quarter with three consecutive touchdowns which came after a pair of interceptions and a turnover on downs that accumulated only 152 yards and then scored its last touchdown on a 12-yard drive. Not exactly going up and down the field. Against Furman, Clemson had only 376 yards of offense and was outgained by the Paladins, and in the opener against Georgia Tech, it had just 378 yards on offense and needed a pair of blocked punts to seal the big win. This offense is reminiscent of last season when it started slow and relied on the defense which it has done by allowing only 10, 12 and 20 points but here comes the first test. Wake Forest is also 3-0 and the positive news is that quarterback Sam Hartman only missed one game after taking a leave for a non-football related issue and has had two games to prepare for this one. He was not great last week against Liberty as the Demon Deacons won by only one point which was a game they did not show up for with a possible lookahead being the reason. They went ahead 20-5 and should have pulled away but instead allowed 18 unanswered points and eventually won the game by denying a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Wake Forest lost this meeting last season by 21 points as it was getting 3.5 points on the road and now it is getting a touchdown at home which does not add up considering the game was played in late November when the Tigers were playing their best and now the Demon Deacons catch them early where there seem to be struggles once again. Hartman did throw for over 300 yards in that game. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight wins. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (340) Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 10* (340) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force -24 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. Nevada is 2-2 to open the season and very could be 0-4. After winning the turnover battle 5-0 in its opener against New Mexico St. where it won 23-12, Nevada again took advantage with a 4-0 takeaway edge and it scored 21 points off those turnovers in a 38-14 win over Texas St. The 2-0 start was short-lived as the Wolf Pack have dropped their last two games, losing to Incarnate Word 55-41 as a favorite and then losing 27-0 at Iowa last week. One constant similarity from the first four games is that Nevada was outgained in all four of those as turnovers were the difference, being +9 in the two wins and just +1 in the two losses and the Wolf Pack cannot be expected to win the turnover battle against a disciplined Air Force team that is even in turnover margin through three games. Nevada is a team that was the most experienced in the country heading into last season with 22 returning starters to now being the least experienced coming into 2022 with only six starters back and that is definitely showing. They should not stand a chance against this Falcons running game. Air Force is coming off an embarrassing effort against Wyoming last week as the Falcons entered the game ranked No. 1 in rushing offense with 508.5 ypg but were held to just 171 yards on 40 carries (4.3 ypc). Overall, the Cowboys outgained Air Force 342-272 yet the Falcons had a chance to win but Wyoming came up big as it went 75 yards for the game-winning score. This is not the game to try and stand in the way of the Falcons as they will be out for a big rebound and will not be letting up no matter how big the lead may be as they need to regain the confidence and get back to .500 in the conference. Head coach Troy Calhoun has been here 15 years and has been in this situation many times and has succeeded as over the last 17 games, his Falcons are 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and playing a team with a .500 or worse winning percentage. Here, we played against teams averaging 4.2 or fewer yards per play on offense after gaining 2.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game. this situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (310) Air Force Falcons |
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09-22-22 | Steelers +5 v. Browns | Top | 17-29 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are both off to 1-1 starts with all four of the games coming down to the final plays. Cleveland is coming off a brutal loss against the Jets as it blew a 13-point lead with under two minutes remaining as it had a blown coverage, allowed a successful onsides kick and let the Jets drive right down the field for the winning score. That thwarted a shot at the Browns starting a season 2-0 for the first time since 1993 after winning their first game on a 58-yard field goal with eight seconds remaining. Rebound or regression this week? Obviously, playing a divisional opponent will have Cleveland ready for this game but that loss is going to sit for a while and it does not have a great matchup here and Cleveland is laying more than it should be after opening as a field goal favorite. Myles Garrett is listed as questionable and there is a good possibility that he will not play but either way, he will not be 100 percent which will help out the Pittsburgh offense that has predicably struggled out of the gate. The Steelers escaped Cincinnati with an overtime victory thanks to the Bengals kicking game but were not as fortunate last week as the offense was horrible, putting up only 243 total yards so the fact they only lost by three points was fortunate. The defense played well without T.J. Watt and should do so again here against Jacoby Brissett who was solid last week but that was against a Jets defense and he was not good in the first game against the Panthers. Stopping the run will be at the forefront here for the Steelers and they have been good as they are tied for No. 10, allowing 4.0 ypc. Cleveland does not lay points very often in divisional games as the Browns are 0-6-1 ATS in this role the last two seasons. With a pair of solid defenses playing to a low total, the value is on the Steelers with an overinflated line and while going against a big, early line move can be the wrong way to look, it is too much of an adjustment with what we have seen over the first two weeks. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499 last season, in conference games. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS for our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. Coastal Carolina is coming off a win over Buffalo to move to 3-0 on the season but it was not as easy as it should have been. The Bulls were in the game for a while as nearing the end of the first half, they went 80 yards to take a two-point lead into the break. The Chanticleers retook the lead for a good on a fumble recovery for a touchdown as it outscored Buffalo 21-7 in the fourth quarter. They outgained the Bulls 504-337 including 221-59 on the ground (7.9 ypc to 1.3 ypc) so the game should not have been as tight but costly mistakes have played a role early in the season. Coastal Carolina did struggle in the previous game against FCS Gardner Webb as it won by only four points while getting outgained by 141 total yards and that is playing into this line which is shorter than it probably should be so the public is all over the 3-0 chalk going up against the 0-3 underdog. This is the first road game for Coastal Carolina. It has been a disappointing start for the Panthers as they are 0-3 after coming into the season with a projected win total of 7.5 and a likely contender in the Sun Belt Conference although the latter is still more than possible as they have been on the wrong end of some bad breaks. They are coming off a bad loss against Charlotte as it was a back and forth game no thanks to a bad break as Georgia St. was driving to take a 14-point lead in the second quarter but Charlotte returned a fumble 58 yards for a touchdown and then put up another offensive touchdown to take it first lead. The Panthers looked to have put it away as they took a six-point lead with 1:43 remaining but the 49ers went 69 yards in 1:16 to score the game winner. Georgia St. won the yardage battle 602-501 and while that is a little skewed because of the number of plays ran, it kept the time of possession edge which is important in this matchup. The Panthers also outgained South Carolina and were outgained by only 46 yards against North Carolina so they have basically been on the right side in all three games but failed to come away with a victory. Here, we play on teams coming off a home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season. This situation is 76-30 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (306) Georgia St. Panthers |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Eagles are coming off a win over the Lions by just three points while the Vikings took care of the Packers with no problem and because of those wins, the Eagles are underpriced. For Philadelphia, it dominated the majority of the game against Detroit but the Lions made it close with garbage yards and points so the Eagles +69 yards is also skewed. The running game dominated the Lions are they rushed for 216 yards on 39 carries (5.5 ypc) and this has been a consistent going back to last season as the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Jalen Hurts can have a big game through the air as the Vikings were not tested against Green Bay and they possess a pair of below average cornerbacks so both A.J. Brown and Devonta Freeman could have great games. Defensively, Philadelphia was solid up until late in the game and they have the defense that can keep the Minnesota passing offense in check as Darius Slay and James Bradberry are two of the better shutdown corners. Minnesota was never in danger against the Packers as it scored early in the first quarter and was never pressed. The offense had 395 yards with Justin Jefferson leading the way to a monster receiving game but again, the Eagles possess a much better secondary than Green Bay and coupled with a solid pass rush against Kirk Cousins, the Vikings passing game can be slowed down here. Minnesota ran for 126 yards on 28 carries (4.5 ypc) which was fairly solid and it will be up to the Eagles run stop unit that improved on paper to defend the run but did not do much against Detroit do a better job here. Minnesota finished No. 18 in DVOA last season with a preseason ranking of No. 20 so last week cannot show us a true indication of the how the defense is. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (292) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-18-22 | Texans v. Broncos -9.5 | Top | 9-16 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Denver is one of the three big favorites late Sunday afternoon and this one seems to set up the best for a runaway. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks Monday night in the return of Russell Wilson who was on the sidelines with the game on the line and that will have him ready to roll in his home debut in Denver. The Broncos should have won the game before that as they had two fumbles at the Seattle goal line that completely changed the flow of the game as well as going 0-4 in redzone efficiency. The Broncos outgained Seattle 433-253 as the running game on had 20 carries but had a 5.2 ypc average and Wilson was excellent going 29-42 (69 percent) for 340 yards and a touchdown with six different receivers having at least two catches. The defense did its job after allowing an opening touchdown as it settled in and has another great matchup here. The Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. The Texans came through with a tie against the Colts which can be considered a win as they were outclassed but got the breaks they needed. Houston was outgained 517-299 as Matt Ryan passed for 352 yards and Jonathan Taylor rushed for 161 yards and it has another brutal test here and we do not expect the defense to get the breaks. Davis Mills had a very solid game and one of the reasons we took the Texas was the home split for Mills as last season he had a 109.6 quarterback rating at home where he completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,725 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception compared to a 63.1 rating on the road where he had just 939 yards with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. The running game had only 77 yards on 28 carries (2.8 ypc) and will get stuffed again. A couple misleading finals gives us value here and the fact it is double digits is no issue as these favorites have hit at a 60.4 percent clip since 2016. 10* (284) Denver Broncos |
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09-18-22 | Patriots -1.5 v. Steelers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 62 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our AFC Game of the Month. The Patriots obviously did not look very good last week as they scored only seven points but they did a decent job moving the ball as they got into Miami territory in all but two drives but they had three turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, while also turning it over on downs once. The offense had only 271 yards but the possessions where they gave it back definitely hurt the numbers and we should see a cleaner game here. Mac Jones was pretty pedestrian as the back issue might have played into it but he still did complete 70 percent of his passes. They will face a tough defense but a different one from last week. Defensively, New England looked good as they allowed 307 yards and just 20 points and that unit should flourish in this matchup. The rushing defense allowed only 65 yards on 23 carries (2.8 ypc) and anything close to a repeat of that is ideal. The Steelers got the job done last week in a very unconventional way as they were outgained 432-267 but benefitted by the defense forcing five turnovers with a lot of those taking place after Cincinnati was moving the ball. Pittsburgh needed a blocked extra point to force overtime and a missed field goal from Evan McPherson to pull out the victory. The Steelers rushed for just 75 yards on 22 carries (3.4 ypc) and now Najee Harris is banged up and while he will likely play, he is not 100 percent. Mitch Trubisky was, well, Mitch Trubisky as he checked down constantly and was just 21-38 (55.3 percent) and if the Patriots can sack Tua three times, they will have no problem applying pressure here. With the exception of the turnovers, the defense was not good as they allowed 133 yards rushing on 34 carries (3.9 ypc) and while Joe Burrow was intercepted four times and lost a fumble, the offensive line had a negative say in that. To top it off, T.J. Watt is likely out for the season which cannot be understated. 10* (275) New England Patriots |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 61 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. Baltimore was never in danger against the Jets but it was outgained by 104 total yards and while a lot of that was due to garbage time yards for the Jets, the Ravens offense was off. Lamar Jackson came out slow and ended up completing only 57 percent of his passes and while the weather did play a small part, his receiving corps is not very good and they did not get a lot out of tight end Mark Andrews. Additionally, they ran for only 63 yards on 21 carries (3.0 ypc) and Baltimore took a blow by losing tackle Ja'Wuan James for the season. They will be banking on the defense early on until there is more cohesion on the offensive side and while the Jets did not provide much to throw at the Ravens, this is a much tougher matchup as the Miami speed could cause some problems. Another season ending injury occurred on this side of the ball as well as cornerback Kyle Fuller is done. Miami won a pretty ugly game as it continued the home dominance against New England and while the overall grade for the Dolphins is mixed, getting that first game out of the way with a lot of new parts provides positive movement going forward. Tua Tagovailoa was solid as he went 23-33 (69.7 percent) for 270 yards and a touchdown and the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 163 yards and that one touchdown. The running game needs a push as newcomers Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert had just 41 yard rushing on 17 carries (2.4 ypc) and while the matchup is not great, the improved offensive line should get better game by game. This number opened at -4.5 in most places last Sunday and the early non-public money came in to knock it down to -3.5 and getting the hook above that key number is big. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499, in conference games. this situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Miami Dolphins |
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09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. Tampa Bay won on opening night in Dallas as it was not a great effort and the Buccaneers were fortunate to face a bad offense that eventually lost Dak Prescott for a good part of the game. Tom Brady was average as he threw for only 212 yards and he struggled against pressure and while he was sacked only twice, he was hurried a lot and a lot of that comes down to the offensive line that was banged up entering the game and now they have to deal with an injury to left tackle Donovan Smith and is listed as questionable. The star of the offense was running back Leonard Fournette who ran for 127 yards on 21 carries (6.1 ypc) and he will definitely be a focal point for the Saints to slow down. As mentioned, facing a poor offense aided the defense but will have a tougher time here against the Saints that possess a lot more weapons. The Saints rallied past the Falcons on a 51-yard Will Lutz field goal in the final minute after falling behind 26-10 early in the fourth quarter. That provides some solid momentum heading into another divisional matchup and a much bigger one at home but are catching points. Jameis Winston took a while to get going but he closed the game strong in the comeback victory and he finished 23-34 (67.6 percent) with two touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. Jarvis Landry was the big target as he caught seven passes for 114 yards while Michael Thomas returned off a long layoff to grab a pair of touchdowns. Alvin Kamara only ran the ball nine times but at a 4.3 ypc clip and he can be effective hear as well after Ezekiel Elliott ran for 52 yards on 10 carries (5.2 ypc) until Dallas abandoned the run. The defense will have to improve as the normally strong rushing defense allowed Cordarrelle Paterson to run for 120 yards. Here, we play on home teams off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (272) New Orleans Saints |
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09-18-22 | Panthers +2 v. Giants | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. The Giants pulled off the upset in Tennessee as they fell behind 13-0 at halftime, which could have and should have been a lot worse, and now they head home as the favorite which is too overaggressive after just one game. Saquon Barkley led the offense as he ran for 164 yards on 18 carries (9.1 ypc) with a big 68-yard run being a big part of that. Daniel Jones was not horrible as he was accurate by going 17-21 for 188 yards but that included a 65-yard touchdown pass so it was far from explosive other than that and he was also sacked five times. That will be problem here again. The defense did a good job in stopping the run as they allowed 93 yards but did give up 4.0 ypc as Tennessee did not need to run with Ryan Tannehill throwing for 266 yards on a strong 13.3 yards per completion. Defensive ends Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari did not play last week and both are questionable again. Carolina lost a tough one against Cleveland as it took the lead with 1:13 remaining but allowed the Browns to get into field goal range where they hit the 58-yard game winner. The running game was non-existent as the Panthers ran the ball only 19 times and the biggest part of the offense was absent from the awful gameplan as Christian McCaffrey had just three touches in the first 25 minutes in the game. Baker Mayfield was okay in his debut as he was 16-27 for 235 yards with a touchdown but did have one interception. He was sacked four times from the great Cleveland pass rush but that should not be a worry here. The one concern is the Panthers rushing defense as they allowed 217 yards last week and Barkley looked explosive again but we expect that to be better here against a poor offensive line. The strength of the passing defense will hardly be tested here. Here, we play against home favorites that had a losing record last season, in conference games. This situation is 163-97 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers |
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09-17-22 | Marshall v. Bowling Green +16.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Marshall is coming off an upset victory at Notre Dame to move to 2-0 on the season following a 55-3 win over Norfolk St. This is an epic win for the Thundering Herd and now trying to get up on the road once again against a much lesser opponent is going to be a tough task. Notre Dame took the lead early in the fourth quarter but the Thundering Herd got the lead back late in the quarter and then iced the game returning an interception 37 yards for a touchdown. Marshall outgained the Irish by 13 total yards with nearly even time of possession and both teams were just 4-13 on third down and while the Marshall effort was impressive, it really showed how bad the Notre Dame offense really is. The win is the second victory against a top-10 ranked team in program history with the first coming in 2003 against then-No. 6 Kansas St. Not much was expected of the Thundering Herd coming into the season as they had a 5.5-win total with only 11 starters back and a No. 103 returning production ranking. After losing to UCLA in the season opener, the Falcons are coming off a disappointing loss against Eastern Kentucky where they were favored by over a touchdown but this is a very experienced team that can regroup. Bowling Green jumped ahead 10-0 after the first quarter but Eastern Kentucky went on a 31-7 run that included four straight scoring drives that totaled 276 yards which was sandwiched around a fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Falcons responded with three straight touchdowns to take a seven-point lead but allowed the Colonels to drive 75 yards on 14 plays to tie the game with no time left in regulation. Eastern Kentucky knocked down a pass in the seventh overtime to seal the win. Last season, Bowling Green was one of the most inexperienced teams in the country as it played numerous underclassmen so it can be excused but this season, the Falcons have the most experienced team in the nation as far as returning production. Here, we play on teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season. This situation is 71-28 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (166) Bowling Green Falcons |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Washington St. is coming off an upset over Wisconsin and while it is chalked up as a Cougars win, it can be classed more of a Badgers loss. After scoreless first quarter, Washington St. took its first possession of the second quarter 53 yards to take a 7-0 lead. Wisconsin took the ensuing kickoff and went 65 yards to tie the game and then forced a punt with 55 seconds remaining in the first half and went 45 yards in 35 seconds to take a seven-point lead into the half. The Cougars opened the second half with a field goal and went ahead midway through the third quarter with a touchdown following an interception. Wisconsin got inside the Cougars 12-yard line on its last two possessions but turned it over both times. The Badgers outgained Washington St. 401-253 but the turnovers did them in as did 11 penalties for 106 yards. In their first game, the Cougars snuck by Idaho 24-17 as they managed only 360 yards on offense so with two games with 613 total yards, beating a number this big will be a challenge. The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine nonconference games. It was an ugly loss for the Rams last week as Middle Tennessee St. jumped out to a 34-0 lead before Colorado St. made it look more respectable. The Blue Raiders returned an interception 32 yards for a touchdown on the first play of the game and the offense did its part after that, scoring on five of its first eight possessions with another 10 points coming off turnovers by the Rams. The defense was the real story as Middle Tennessee St. allowed 57 total yards in the first nine Colorado St. possessions, forcing three turnovers and six punts. The Blue Raiders outgained the Rams 380-246 including giving up -10 yards rushing 34 attempts (-0.3 ypc) in part due to having nine sacks for 70 yards. This came after a blowout loss at Michigan and head coach Jay Norvell is not off to a great start after coming over from Nevada. Sacramento St. is on deck for the Rams so there is no chance of a lookahead and this is a great opportunity for the defense to get back on track and the underdog price gives them a lot of leeway. The Rams are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (161) Colorado St. Rams |
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09-17-22 | Troy +12.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. After falling a two-point conversion short two weeks, Appalachian St. rebounded with a major upset at Texas A&M. The Mountaineers struck first after a fumble recovery led to a 29-yard touchdown drive but the Aggies responded by going 75 yards in seven plays and then their offense completely shut down. Texas A&M had only five possessions after that as its other touchdown came on a 95-yard kickoff return after Appalachian St. took a 14-7 lead and the Aggies mustered only 95 yards of offense while missing a game-tying field goal in the final minutes. The Mountaineers outgained Texas A&M 315-186 and held it to just nine first downs while possessing the ball for nearly 23 more minutes. It was a great performance following the disappointment against North Carolina and Appalachian St. in now in the double-letdown situation as an overpriced favorite that is feeling pretty good about themselves. The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Troy opened the season with a loss at Mississippi but bounced back last week with a win against Alabama A&M. Against the Rebels, a slow start doomed the Trojans as Mississippi jumped ahead 21-0 as Troy could get nothing going on offense as it managed only 59 total yards on its first five possessions. The second half was bad for both teams as the Rebels scored a touchdown to open the half but their next five possessions ended with three turnovers and two punts while gaining only 57 yards. The Trojans had more production as they had six drives that totaled 220 yards but scored only one touchdown as they had a fumble, an interception and turned it over on downs three times. The offense got it going last week, albeit against an FCS team, but it was a much needed game to get things right and the passing game will play a big part here as the Trojans have averaged 375 ypg through the air and the Mountaineers secondary could be susceptible here which is always a bonus with a sizable underdog than can sneak in a backdoor cover if it comes down to that. The Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (155) Troy Trojans |
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09-17-22 | Georgia Southern v. UAB -11.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. UAB is coming off a disappointing loss at Liberty as it went on the road as a favorite and could get nothing going on offense and that changes here. After forcing a three and out to open the game, UAB fumbled on its first offensive play but no damage was done. The Blazers punted on their next possession and fumbled again on the next drive but Liberty missed a field goal and UAB took advantage by going 80 yards in four plays to take a 7-0 lead. The Flames tied the game early in the second quarter which ended the scoring for both teams before the half. Liberty added a pair of touchdowns and was ready to put the game away but fumbled on its own 20-yard line and UAB punched it in but the Blazers never got the ball back as Liberty was able to run out the clock. The Flames outgained UAB 390-355 and benefitted from four fumbles. The Blazers put up 59 points and 478 total yards in their opener against Alabama A&M and they have a chance to light it up again here. Georgia Southern is coming off a monumental win at Nebraska. Just how big? It is the first time in 215 home games at Memorial Stadium that Nebraska has lost while scoring 35 or more points. The Eagles had second half leads twice before Nebraska took a 42-38 lead with 3:05 remaining but Georgia Southern went 75 yards in 11 plays to take back the lead and Nebraska missed a game tying field goal as time expired. The Eagles outgained the Huskers 642-575 and while Nebraska won the turnover battle 2-0, it was hurt by 10 penalties that awarded the Eagles four first downs. The offense is no joke but it will be challenged here as the UAB defense was No. 16 in total defense and No. 41 in scoring defense last season and with eight starters back, they are in great form. While the Eagles offense hummed along, the defense showed signs of the big step back it took a year ago because last season was a disaster as the Eagles allowed 441.7 ypg which was No. 109 in the country and only five starters are back. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in their previous game, with five defensive starters returning. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (154) UAB Blazers |
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09-17-22 | Ohio +18.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 10-43 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Iowa St. brought the Cy-Hawk Trophy back to Ames for the first time since 2014 as it finally broke through against its bitter rival but it was far from pretty. The Cyclones had the advantage of facing one of the most inept offenses of the power five conference so far in the early part of the season as Iowa scored its lone touchdown on a 16-yard drive following a blocked punt and the Hawkeyes finished with 92 yards passing and 58 yards rushing. The Cyclones were not efficient either as they had three turnovers and had two punts blocked while managing only 313 total yards. The go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter went 99 yards on 21 plays that took 11:49 off the clock. This came after a 42-10 win over SE Missouri St. but it took three second half touchdowns to put the game away. The Cyclones host Baylor next week in their Big 12 opener so coupled with the win last week, they are trapped in this sandwich game. Ohio is coming off an expected blowout loss at Penn St. as the Bobcats were never in it as four-touchdown underdogs. Now they are getting another big number that is just over a touchdown less than last week against a far more inferior team than the Nittany Lions. The Ohio defense was far from good but they allowed only three third down conversions in 12 attempts and had five sacks and will be a less potent offense here. The Bobcats opened the season with an upset over Florida Atlantic as they held off a late charge from the Owls. Florida Atlantic took the opening kickoff and drove 75 yards for a score to take a 7-0 lead and never trailed in the first half, taking a 17-13 lead into the break. Ohio scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions of the second half to take a 17-point lead but the Owls scored three late touchdowns and got the ball with 1:37 remaining in the game but turned the ball over on downs with 32 seconds to go. Here, we play against home favorites good rushing defense from last season allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (127) Ohio Bobcats |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | Top | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. It took three games into the season for Nebraska to fire head coach Scott Frost and that arguably was something that should have happened at the end of last season. Following a loss against Northwestern in the season opener, the Huskers bounced back with a win against North Dakota and gave it back last week with a home loss against Georgia Southern. It was a game that was back and forth throughout and the Huskers were in good position to take it but the defense came up small at the end. The Eagles had second half leads twice before Nebraska took a 42-38 lead with 3:05 remaining but Georgia Southern went 75 yards in 11 plays to take back the lead and Nebraska missed a game tying field goal as time expired. The Eagles outgained the Huskers 642-575 and while Nebraska won the turnover battle 2-0, it was hurt by 10 penalties that awarded the Eagles four first downs. The horror stories of summer/fall camp are now in the past and we are going to see a much looser team under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. Oklahoma hits the road following a pair of easy home wins but the Sooners were not very dominant last week against a team from the MAC. It started the game with four straight punts and Kent St. was able to take a 3-0 lead early in the second quarter before the Sooners finally got the offense going with a 76-yard drive capped by a 36-yard touchdown pass with 18 seconds left in the first half. Oklahoma scored on its first four second half possessions to put the game away but they struggled again late with only 31 total yards in the fourth quarter on four possessions. The Sooners won the yardage battle 430-295 as the Golden Flashes did do a good job keeping the ball away from Oklahoma as they had the ball for over 12 more minutes while the Sooners were just 3-12 on third down. The Sooners will be fired up for this old rivalry but this is too many points to be laying with a team not clicking as of yet. Here, we play on teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (124) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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09-16-22 | Air Force -14.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. Air Force is off to a 2-0 start with a pair of blowout wins over Northern Iowa of the FCS and Colorado as it has won by a combined score of 89-27 and it won the yardage battle by 286 and 317 yards. This is the first road game of the season but the road has not been an issue as the Falcons were 5-0 last season and this should not be a matchup to worry about. Quarterback Hazziq Daniels is back after finishing second on the team in rushing and while the passing game was limited as he completed only 45.7 percent of his passes, he led the country with 22.6 yards per completion. Leading rusher Brad Roberts returns and there is a decent amount of depth behind him and the offensive line has three starters back with all five up front having solid experience. The top three rushers this season have gained 597 yards on 69 carries (8.7 ypc). Good rushing performances for the Falcons have been followed up with more of the same as they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. Wyoming has bounced back from an opening loss at Illinois 38-6 with a pair of wins as it defeated Tulsa in overtime and then defeated Northern Colorado of the FCS last week 33-10. In the win over Tulsa, the Cowboys were outgained 521-399 as their points were also bolstered by defense and special teams as they had a sack/fumble that was recovered in the endzone for a touchdown and also blocked a punt for a touchdown. While the rushing defense has been solid the last two games, those were against inept running teams and Wyoming allowed 260 yards rushing on 41 carries (6.3 ypc) against Illinois and with only four starters back overall and two of those along the defensive line, this is an issue as the rushing defense was the liability last season. Offensively, they only have four starters back as well and the Cowboys had only 294 yards against Northern Colorado last week. Here, we play on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with four or more total starters and an experienced quarterback returning going up against teams with new starting quarterback. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (107) Air Force Falcons |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Week Two of the NFL season is all about overreactions. One game in and in a lot of cases, opinions are formed based on those performances and while it can hold some water, the circumstances play a part which can lead to these overreactions. Everyone knew Kansas City was going to be one of the top teams in the league and after its performance in the desert, the Chiefs are going to be even more of a public team than before and this is where a circumstance does come into play. They faced an Arizona defense that was decimated with injuries, so being favored on the road and covering while dominating the game comes as no surprise and because they outgained the Cardinals by 206 yards in a 23-point win, this line has moved off the key number of the -3 opener. Patrick Mahomes looked awesome last week and he should have but now he faces a completely different defense that will be applying pressure all night, something Arizona was unable to do as it registered no sacks. The Chargers gained some revenge last week with the win over the Raiders who kept them out of the playoffs last season after the season ending loss in overtime. Hitting the road on a short week is never easy but it is not as bad in Week Two as opposed to later in the season when fatigue is more of a factor. Los Angeles put up 355 yards of offense which was pretty average as the running game could get nothing going as they rushed for just 76 yards on 31 carries (2.5 ypc) and should have more success here. Justin Herbert was excellent even after Keenan Allen went down as he was 26-34 for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He spread the ball around to nine different pass catchers that each had at least two receptions. Going back to the pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles sacked Derek Carr six times. This series has been tight over the last few years with Kansas City winning five of the eight meetings since 2018 and all three of those Chargers wins were in Kansas City. In the eight games, Los Angeles outgained the Chiefs six times with the two exceptions coming last season in the 1-1 split. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 127-72 ATS (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Los Angeles Chargers |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This game sets up pretty similar to that of the Eagles/Lions game where we have a very public Super Bowl side future laying a touchdown on the road and the said public all over that side in Game One. Denver got the top quarterback prize in the offseason, trading for Russell Wilson and trading a lot for him but other than that, this is pretty much the same team that has missed the playoffs for six straight seasons. The big narrative heading into this season in that the last two Super Bowl champions had a losing record in the previous season, brought in a new quarterback and won it all but that is such a meaningless reason to back a team. Wilson struggled last season but to his credit, he did play part of the season hurt with an injured finger yet he had better weapons in Seattle in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett although he does have an upgraded offensive line. Still, not a reason to be laying a touchdown on the road. Seattle is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFC but do not tell that to the Bears as we saw Sunday, Week One is very volatile and there were trap lines all over the place. The Seahawks will go with Geno Smith at quarterback who is a below average starter but he went 3-0 against the number last season in the three games he played without Wilson and he has been around this league long enough to know how to manage a situation as does his head coach. Clearly, the Seahawks will want to have success running the ball to shorten the game and keep the ball away from Wilson and the fact that linebacker Josey Jewell is out for the Broncos is a huge break for Seattle. This line opened at 3.5 and has been bet through the roof and we are going against that here in what looks like another live underdog opening week. 10* (482) Seattle Seahawks |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 76 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Green Bay enters the season the favorite to win the NFC North yet again at -175 and is second to Tampa Bay to win the conference at +400 but there are concerns that should be weeded out by midseason but early on, there could be some chemistry issues on offense. The loss of receiver Davante Adams, who accounted for over one-third of the Packers receiving yards, is the obvious big absence as he has been reunited with his college quarterback in Las Vegas and the lone major holdover at receiver is Allen Lazard and he is banged up heading into the season opener and listed as questionable. The offensive line will be better as the season goes along with the return of left tackle David Bakhtiari who played only one game last season but he is also on the injury list as questionable. The Green Bay defense was one of the worst against the run as far as average carries as it allowed 4.7 ypc which was third worst in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers has done it in the past with a skeleton offense but this is not the ideal opening game. Minnesota made changes on the sidelines with Kevin O'Connell taking over as head coach, coming over from the Rams where he was the offensive coordinator and he has an exceptional offense already in place to work with. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is one of the most criticized signal callers in the league and probably for simply not taking his team deep into the playoffs as his numbers speak for themselves. He was No. 4 in quarterback rating last season, ahead of Brady, Mahomes and Allen and over the last three seasons, he is tied for No. 5 in the PFF ratings and he is underrated. Eight of the Vikings nine losses last season came by eight or fewer points so being competitive is not a problem. The Vikings are 17-6 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years and while they are a small dog here, they probably should not be as we have this one as a pickem and the extra point and a half is important for teaser players as it crosses four key numbers. 10* (476) Minnesota Vikings |
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09-11-22 | Browns +2 v. Panthers | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Cleveland enters the season as an unknown because of the quarterback situation but that aside, the Browns still have one of the best rosters in the league. Jacoby Brissett is capable to handle this offense and he will not be asked to win but to just maintain control and use everything around him. His receiving corps is stacked with newly acquired Amari Cooper, rookie David Bell and a very underrated Donovan Peoples-Jones, he has a great offensive line in front of his and has one of the best running backs behind him in Nick Chubb. Cleveland will face a tough defense in the Panthers which finished No. 2 in the NFL in total defense but No. 21 in scoring defense and Cleveland has the pieces to exploit this unit. This is a big year for Carolina and head coach Matt Rhule who is on the hot seat after winning just 10 games in his first two seasons. A lot of the problems were with injuries, namely Christian McCaffrey who has played in only 11 of the past 33 games, and quarterback where there has been no consistency. Enter Baker Mayfield who won the starting job over Sam Darnold which was not a difficult thing to do and the big narrative here is Baker playing his former team in the first game of the season, thus adding a revenge factor. It is unlikely that he is going to step up his play just because of the opponent and this is the first game of the season for both teams so there is no added incentive on either side. No narrative. With the Deshaun Watson status still up in the air over the summer, Cleveland opened as a 4.5-point favorite and was bet up to -5 in some spots and now the line is +1.5 or +2 so we are seeing a swing of up to seven points and sorry, no player is worth a line shift like that unless the backup is completely incompetent which is not the case here. A year ago, Cleveland was a sleeper Super Bowl pick and this year, it is nothing close to that so the pressure aspect of needing to win is gone so simply playing looser is beneficial which makes them a live dog here. 10* (459) Cleveland Browns |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +7 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Much is said about the Super Bowl hangover and how the losing team from the big game tends to struggle the following season and we can totally see that here. Cincinnati will have the target on its back heading into the season following that disappointing three-point loss to the Rams and many are projecting a pretty big drop off in the highly potent AFC. The Bengals won 10 regular season games, but caught fire in the playoffs toward their Super Bowl run with the MVP not being Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase or Joe Mixon but kicker Even McPherson. The biggest issue last season was pass protection as Burrow was dropped 70 times and while there was an offensive line upgrade in the offseason, it could take some time for the three new pieces to fall into place. Another concern is Burrow himself who missed time in camp due to an appendectomy and he had to fight through an infection where he apparently lost 20 pounds. He is not 100 percent. The Steelers are not on many radars this season and they probably should not be but with head coach Mike Tomlin on the sidelines, this is always a dangerous team. They were not a very good football team last season but still were able to sneak into the playoffs before succumbing to the Chiefs and it is now 15 consecutive seasons that Tomlin has not produced a losing record as the Pittsburgh coach. Obviously, the big change is Ben Roethlisberger has retired and Mitch Trubisky will take over as the starter and while some see this as a downgrade, it is not. Roethlisberger finished last season No. 25 in QBR and if he can take them to the playoffs, Trubisky can. The offensive line is a slight concern but do not have a horrible matchup here. The Steelers defense is not what it used to be but can still get to the quarterback and that alone should be enough to keep them in this game. In the meeting here last season in November, the Bengals were 3.5-point favorites and now it is nearly double that and that is too much of an overadjustment. 10* (461) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-11-22 | Colts v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Another new look Colts team takes the field in 2022 with yet another new quarterback at the helm. This is the sixth straight season that Indianapolis will be starting a different quarterback (Jacoby Brissett twice sandwiched around Andrew Luck) as it is starting to rival the Browns in this category. Carson Wentz was not horrible last season as he finished No. 9 in the NFL in QBR but the last two games of the season doomed him as all they needed was one win and they lost to the Raiders and Jaguars to miss the postseason. Is Matt Ryan really an upgrade? Only time will tell and while he had a worse roster to work with last season, he was No. 21 in QBR, his lowest since 2015 and his 20 touchdowns were the fewest since his rookie season. He definitely has better pieces around him in Indianapolis as well as a better defense but laying this many points on the road in a divisional game is a lot to ask. Houston is once again expected to finish near the bottom in the AFC with a lot of questions all over the field. That being said, it is a new season with every team on a level playing field, to an extent, and the Texans will come out and see where they stand against a divisional opponent. Last season, they rolled over Jacksonville in the season opener and while the Jaguars/Colts comparison is not a fair one, it does show that things can be different early in the season. David Mills remains the starting quarterback and there is a mix of opinions of him being a band-aid to the heir apparent or having the upside to become a full time starter. Like Ryan, only time will tell. One thing is certain and that is he plays much better at home than on the road. He had a 109.6 quarterback rating at home where he completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,725 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception compared to a 63.1 rating on the road where he had just 939 yards with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. Defensively, stopping Jonathan Taylor will be the key and while Houston allowed the second most rushing yards last season, they were ran on the second most, ahead of only the Jets. 10* (468) Houston Texans |
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09-10-22 | Northern Illinois +6.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Northern Illinois has some big expectations this season and there is no reason to believe that the Huskies will not reach and/or exceed those. Last season they went 9-5 and won the MAC Championship for the fourth time in 10 years as the Huskies welcomed back 19 starters and head coach Thomas Hammock could be building something really good again. They have 18 starters back this season while being ranked No. 8 in returning production and a repeat is the goal. They opened the season against Eastern Illinois and won 34-27 and that closer than expected finish is going to worry some but this is a veteran team that will regroup and all that narrow victory did was give us line value this week. The Huskies led by 22 points in the second half on two different occasions and instead of going for the jugular, they took the foot off the gas so a lot of the Panthers output was after the game was pretty much decided. Nonetheless, they have to play better which we are expecting they do. Tulsa put up a dud last week against Wyoming as they lost in overtime by three points as there were facets of the game that they failed at against what was considered a pretty bad team coming off a 38-6 loss against Illinois where the Cowboys could do nothing. The Golden Hurricane could not run the ball, turned it over more than they should have and special teams was horrible. The one big positive was quarterback Davis Brin who threw for a career-high 460 yards and three touchdowns but still could not get it done against a Cowboys defense that returns just four starters and have just one holdover in the secondary so he should have gone off. This line should be in the field goal range so we get value there in a game the Huskies can win outright. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that averaged 425 or more total ypg last season, with eight or more offensive starters including the quarterback returning, in the first month of the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (385) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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09-10-22 | Kansas +13.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. We bet the Kansas over win total of 2.5 and we are almost halfway there and while one victory over an FCS team is not going to say the Jayhawks are now a force to be reckoned with, it was a very positive step and an additional one that goes back to last season. There have been seven coaches on the Kansas sideline during this putrid 13-year stretch but good things happened down the stretch last year and if Lance Leipold was able to turn things around in Buffalo, he has a chance to do it here, in time of course. At the end of last season, Kansas defeated Texas in a wild 57-56 overtime upset and then lost its final two games by just nine points combined. Why is this important? Quarterback Jalon Daniels took over those games and was excellent and over the last four games, he is 80-110 (72.7 percent) for 895 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He was efficient last week and now teams have to pay attention not only to the running game, but to the passing game. West Virginia is coming off a tough loss against Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl which puts them in a tough spot as it could get guilty of looking past Kansas. Against Pittsburgh, West Virginia had 190 rushing on 33 carries (5.8 ypc) while the Panthers had just 76 yards rushing on 38 carries (2.0 ypc) so that goes to the Mountaineers but Pittsburgh threw for 308 yards (19.3 yards per completion) compared to the Mountaineers passing for 214 yards (9.3 yards per completion). Daniels has every chance to be successful again here. The Kansas defense was one of the worst in the country last season but there is plenty of experience and the depth has increased thanks to the transfer portal. They allowed only 10 points and 190 total yards and while that was Tennessee Tech, the recent history of FCS games has not been good so this is a big thing and a huge thing to build on. Not much was expected with a 5.5 win total and just 12 starters returning with a No. 111 returning production ranking. 10* (371) Kansas Jayhawks |
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09-10-22 | Iowa State v. Iowa -3 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Saturday Rivalry Rout. How bad was the Iowa offense last week against South Dakota St.? The Hawkeyes managed just one touchdown in the 7-3 victory. Correction, it was not even a touchdown as their scoring came from a field goal and a pair of safeties so the offense was even worst than that seven-point total can possibly look. The offense managed 166 yards of offense, quarterback Spencer Petras was 11-25 for 109 yards, running back Leshon Williams was the leading rusher with 72 yards and the MVP was punter Tory Taylor who punted 10 times with seven of those being downed inside the 20-yard line including five inside the 10-yard line. Injuries played a role last week but they will be more healthy this week and the playing time of the younger players was a big edge even though the performances were not there. Iowa St. looked much better in its opener against an FCS opponent as it defeated SE Missouri St. 42-10 but it was not as dominating as that score might indicate. The Cyclones won the yardage battle 469-320 and had a fairly narrow 7.0 to 5.3 yard per play edge. If there is good news for the Iowa passing game it is that the Redhawks threw for 222 yards on an 11.7 completion average, the same as the Cyclones. Iowa St. quarterback Hunter Dekkers is a redshirt freshman that saw limited action last season so there is not much for teams to look at on film but the Hawkeyes have firsthand experience as he faced them in relief duty last season, going 11-16 for 114 yards and a touchdown and while those numbers were good, Iowa has a big edge having played against him. Iowa will have a much better defense than that of SE Missouri St., and because of this, the Cyclones need to use the clock to their advantage and that is what the Hawkeyes will plan on taking away. No one will be backing Iowa here and as of Wednesday morning, 60 percent of the action is on the Cyclones and from just a scoreboard analysis from last week, it is not hard to imagine that. There is more to it than that. 10* (368) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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09-10-22 | Appalachian State v. Texas A&M -19 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We lost with Appalachian St. last week while some may have pushed and we are going against the Mountaineers here in a much different matchup and situation. That was a heart-wrenching loss as they came all the way back with a monster fourth quarter but came up just short in a game they had circled all summer and the biggest home crown in program history went home disappointed. Picking up the pieces will not be easy and this is where a cupcake would come in handy but they are not so lucky. Looking at the stats shows a masterful quarterback performance from Chase Brice who threw for six touchdowns and 361 yards against the Tar Heels and many people will go by that and think that this attack is now balanced and can give the Aggies fits but two weeks ago, North Carolina allowed 279 yards on 28-39 passing with a 7.2 yard per attempt average against Florida A&M from the FCS so the Brice numbers do not look as sparkly. Texas A&M toyed with Sam Houston St. last week in a 31-0 victory that might not look very impressive score-wise but it was a pure domination. The Aggies put up 497 yards of offense on 7.4 yards per play and looking at the drive chart shows it took a while for that offense to get rolling in the first game of the season as they had 184 yards in their first seven possessions, one accounting for 77 of those, but they tallied 303 yards over the final six possessions. Haynes King was great at quarterback despite a pair of picks as he threw for 364 yards and three touchdowns on 65 percent completions. The defense, despite down six starters from last season, did what was expected as it held the Bearkats to 198 yards and 10 first downs and will give the Mountaineers fits unlike how North Carolina tried. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 4.75 or more rushing ypc last season, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 74-31 ATS (70.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (354) Texas A&M Aggies |
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09-10-22 | North Carolina v. Georgia State +7.5 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 66 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Georgia St. lost to South Carolina last week 35-14 but it was a misleading final as the Panthers were in the game but special teams did them in. They were down by just five points at halftime and picked off a pass on the second play of the third quarter and converted that into a touchdown for their first and only lead. South Carolina scored the final 23 points to pull away thanks to a pair of blocked punts returned for touchdowns. If those did not happen and the final score was closer to 10 points, this line would not be nearly as high. Georgia St. won the yardage battle 311-306 and take a big step down in opposing defense this week. Quarterback Darren Grainger was not great last week but he can go off here just like Chase Brice did last week as he threw for six touchdowns and 361 yards with a very similar offense to that of the Panthers run first option. North Carolina may be 2-0 but it has not been impressive. This defense is not good and will keep many teams around so a look at a home underdog is always an option, especially one that is coming off a solid game against an SEC team. The Tar Heels let Brice go off and the argument will be that the Mountaineers were down huge and had to throw. Sure that is the case but the defense knew it was coming and had no answers. This after giving up 279 yards on 28-39 passing with a 7.2 yard per attempt average to Florida A&M of the FCS. The North Carolina offense is strong but will be facing an underrated defense. The Panthers were great against South Carolina and going back to last season, they improvement immensely by giving up only 20.3 ppg over the final eight games and have seven starters back led by linebackers Blake Carroll and Jordan Veneziale who combined for 169 tackles and 9.5 sacks last season and had 10 and one last week. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 83-35 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (322) Georgia St. Panthers |
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09-10-22 | Southern Miss +25 v. Miami-FL | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Southern Mississippi is coming off a loss to Liberty in four overtimes and now must change directions quickly. Liberty outgained Southern Mississippi 447-391 but needed 15 more plays to do so and the Golden Eagles had the better yard per play average and this team is expected to be a much improved program. They stumbled to a 3-9 record under first year head coach Will Hall and Southern Mississippi brings back 16 starters and has the No. 7 ranked returning production in the country so they have the experience that will be ready. The quarterback situation is still in the air but that is a position that was already low coming in. While one player cannot make a difference in a game, something says Frank Gore, Jr. has had this game circled for a while coming off a career-high 178 yards on a career-best 32 carries and a pair of rushing scores last week. The Hurricanes hung 70 points on Bethune-Cookman which comes as no surprise as the offense did what it wanted but the defense was not great, allowing 342 yards on a 6.1 yard per play average and this is a game it should have dominated on defense. Now after one big victory over an FCS school, there is already talk about the U being back. We need to pump the brakes a bit here even though this team is no doubt going to be heading in the right direction under new head coach Mario Cristobal but it is too soon. For starters, even though it was a game against an FCS team, this is an awful spot with the letdown/lookahead situation. Letdown? Yes. Over 56,000 fans came to watch the debut of the new look Hurricanes in primetime and now they have a noon kickoff against a team no one in Florida cares about and with a game at Texas A&M next week, not only the lookahead there but for this game, they will keep things simple and not show their cards. Here, we play on teams off a home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season. This situation is 67-27 ATS (71.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (327) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. We think Buffalo will have a chip on its shoulder this season and why not take it out on the defending Super Bowl Champions. The last time we saw Buffalo, or actually did not see them as they did not get a chance on offense in overtime against the Chiefs, we saw a disappointed team and one that is going to hungry from the start. The linemakers have agreed with this, making them the favorite to win the Super Bowl and they have seen a big move here, going from an underdog to a favorite on the road. The Bills are legitimately improved from last season, albeit slightly, with some key additions at wide receiver and on the defensive line. While the Bills offense gets most of the credit and probably rightfully so with Josh Allen and co. marching up and down the field at will but the Bills defense was the best in the NFL last season, finishing No. 1 in opponents scoring, opponents yards per game and opponents yards per play. They will be without corner Tre'Davious White which is a tough loss but safety Jordan Poyer looks good to go after having elbow issues during the preseason and of course the signing of Von Miller is a big bonus. They will have a test against the Rams offense that is nearly back in place from last season with Robert Woods gone and replaced by Allen Robinson which was their only major weapon change and it is a wash, and the retirement of tackle Andrew Whitworth is the other big one. Not much has changed on either side enough to not be able to base a lot of the numbers from last season and the Rams should be a slight favorite or a pickem but not an underdog of this size. We have the Super Bowl hangover in play as past champions have struggled to make the playoffs the following season in a lot of cases but it does not start with the opening game. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 and 2019, the defending champions have gone 14-2 and they have never played an inferior team so it is not a skewed record. Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems that averaged 24 or more ppg last season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (452) Los Angeles Rams |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -21.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 126 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFB Monday Star Attraction. While this might be considered a home game for Georgia Tech, it will not be as Clemson will be making the trip with a huge fan base in tow for what in reality is a neutral site game to open the ACC for both teams. A 10-win season was a downer for the Tigers and what they need is a quick start this season after stumbling out last year with a 4-3 start that included losses against NC State and Pittsburgh with three wins coming by 15 points combined against non-bowl teams. This included a 14-8 win over Georgia Tech at home and Clemson has not forgotten that one. Last year was the first one since 2014 that Clemson was not ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll at some point in the season as it got to No. 3 and finished No. 14, the third lowest in the 11 years. The quarterback play has to improve as the offense was abysmal last season but nine starters are back with playmakers at both wide receiver and running back to go along with a veteran offensive line. Defensively, the strength is along the front line with four potential NFL players manning a great run stopping unit and the ability to get to the quarterback. Clemson finished No. 8 in rushing defense and had 42 sacks which was tenth most in the nation so they will once again be all over the place in opponent backfields. Georgia Tech has a lot of work to do and no time to do it. Head coach Geoff Collins was hired after two successful campaigns at Temple and nothing has gone right. He has gone 9-25 in three years and after ending last season with six straight losses including getting shutout against Notre Dame and Georgia in the final two games by a combined 100-0, the fact he still has a job is a little shocking. Only eight starters are back including five on offense that is rebuilding its offensive line, not idea facing Clemson out of the gate. They are worse off defensively with only three starters back after finishing No. 117 in total defense and No. 112 in scoring defense. Clemson should name the score here and the motivation is there to do so. 10* (235) Clemson Tigers |
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09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton | Top | 28-8 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Monday Enforcer. Hamilton has lost two straight games, both on the road, to fall to 3-8 on the season and the road has been the ultimate demise. The Ti-Cats are now 0-6 on the highway but are a much more respectable 3-2 at home with the two losses coming by a combined seven points against teams from the West Division. One of those wins came against Toronto in their last home game and the Argonauts got their revenge last week so now it is payback time for Hamilton. Dane Evans will be the starting quarterback again after Matthew Shiltz was hurt after replacing Evans last week so a return home can only do him good after a poor outing against Hamilton. The home team is 7-0 in the last seven games for Hamilton. Toronto improved to 5-5 on the season but it has had a very favorable schedule this far with seven of the 10 games taking place at home and this is the start of six road games over the last seven so things could get ugly down the stretch. The Argonauts are 1-2 on the road with both losses coming by a touchdown or more with the victory being an impressive one over Saskatchewan but they are at the wrong end of the revenge angle this week and one intangible in our favor is a contrarian one. Turnovers have been a big difference for Toronto as after six games, the Argonauts were -10 in turnover margin but over last four games they are +10 in turnover margin and this latter part of the angle cannot be sustainable. Here, we play on favorites after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (696) Hamilton Ti-Cats |
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09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +3.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Game of the Week. Winnipeg bounced back from its first loss of the season with a two-point win over Calgary last week and is back on the road where it is a perfect 6-0. While the Blue Bombers have a 10-1 record, they have not exactly dominated as six of the 10 wins this season have been by seven points or less. Saskatchewan bounced back as well as it defeated B.C. on the road following a home loss to the Lions the previous week to move back over .500 at 6-5, one of four teams in the West Division with a winning record. The Roughriders are just 3-3 at home and that record is partially playing into this number along with the overall Winnipeg record. It was a good sign from quarterback Cody Fajardo last week as he threw for 321 passing yards with two touchdowns while completing 79.2 percent of his passes. This is the first of three meetings in the next four games so Saskatchewan has a chance to make a move with a big September run. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after one or more consecutive losses against the spread playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 61-31 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (694) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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09-03-22 | Texas State +1 v. Nevada | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. We lost by going against Nevada last week but we were on the right side, the breaks just went the wrong way. The Aggies got inside the Nevada 30-yard line on its first two possessions but missed a field goal and threw an interception and they had four turnovers on seven drives in the half and were unable to score. The second half was much better where they gained 198 yards on their last three possessions but resulted in a touchdown, a field goal and another turnover at the Nevada nine-yard line in the final minute. Nevada was actually outgained 303-257 but benefitted from those five turnovers while not turning the ball over on offense. That offense has work to do as it had only 78 yards passing with just a 3.4 yard per attempt average while the rushing game averaged only 4.0 ypc. The public sees a win and a cover and will be all over this short number. The Bobcats have endured seven straight losing seasons, compiling a 19-65 record over that stretch. Current head coach Jake Spavital is entering his fourth season and while a 4-8 record last year is hardly a big move, it was the best record over the past seven years. Texas St. returns 16 starters and has a No. 23 returning production ranking including No. 7 on offense where some big steps forward are expected. Taking over at quarterback is Arkansas St. transfer Layne Hatcher who was not very good on a very bad team last season but this offense can fit his style. The receiving corps is solidified with Javan Banks and Marcell Barbee combining for 1,068 yards and 10 touchdowns. The defense improved by over 60 ypg and five ppg but it was still bad yet brings back good depth and experience and the Nevada offense is not going to scare anyone. This is the first time in a while that there are expectations to improve even more and if things can go the Bobcats way, the first ever bowl game is within reach. 10* (207) Texas St. Bobcats |
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09-03-22 | BYU v. South Florida +12.5 | Top | 50-21 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our CFB Saturday Underdog Shocker. South Florida has been awful over the last two seasons and this line has a lot to do with that. There is a lot of pressure at the top as head coach Jeff Scott has to make a positive move forward. He has gone 3-18 in his first two seasons and entering 2022, there are no excuses as 19 starters are back from a 2-10 team with the only FBS win coming against Temple. Almost everyone is back from the offense that finished No. 102 in total offense and No. 99 in scoring offense and help is on the way at the most important position. Former Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon will step into the starting role for Timmy McClain who could not get the offense rolling. On the other side, the Bulls were No. 124 in total defense and No. 117 in scoring defense and there is plenty of experience back to improve in all areas. Be disruptive is the goal and there are pieces in place to do so. The linebackers are the strength as Antonio Grier and Dwayne Boyles both return after combining for 159 tackles. Going 21-4 over the last two seasons has put BYU back on the map and it is loaded for another big year with 19 returning starters and a ranking of No. 2 in returning production. Offensively, BYU took a step back last season from 2020 on offense as it averaged more than 70 fewer ypg and put up 11 fewer ppg. Quarterback Jaren Hall took over last season and was solid in 10 games where he threw for 2,583 yards and 20 touchdowns with just five interceptions and he should be even better. The Cougars lost leading rusher Tyler Allgeier who ran for over 1,400 yards so they will take a step back behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. The defense was not great last season as BYU finished No. 74 overall, No. 77 in passing and No. 66 in rushing but it was opportunistic with 25 takeaways that led to a good scoring defense and turnovers cannot be counted upon. 10* (168) South Florida Bulls |
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09-03-22 | Bowling Green +23.5 v. UCLA | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Bowling Green head coach Scott Loeffler has compiled a 7-22 record in his three seasons with the Falcons and this season is likely the last stand if there is not a major turnaround. Last season, Bowling Green was one of the most inexperienced teams in the country but this season, the Falcons have the most experienced team in the nation as far as returning production. Offensively, the Falcons have 10 starters coming back so there should be massive improvements all around. Quarterback Matt McDonald was decent with 2,555 passing yards but threw only 12 touchdowns and tossed seven interceptions but with the experience around him, the redshirt senior transfer can flourish. He has players everywhere around him as the two top targets are back and there is plenty of depth with four players behind them that has at least 100 yards receiving. The two top running backs return also as well as four starting offensive linemen. UCLA is getting the love once again as it typically does but it is hard to be sold on this team. UCLA snapped a five-season losing streak last year with an 8-4 record with head coach Chip Kelly responsible for three of those losing campaigns and while things look to be on the upturn, there are a lot of questions going into this season. They had 20 starters return in 2021 so expectations were high but this season, only eight starters are back and this could be a massive trap. The Bruins are set at quarterback with Dorian Thompson-Robinson but he needs players to step up big around him. the Bruins have to replace nine starters from a defense that finished No. 70 overall, allowing 384.4 ypg while giving up 26.8 ppg, which was No. 74 in the nation. UCLA was not clutch on this side of the ball as it allowed opponents to convert 43.6 percent of its third down opportunities, tied for No. 110 in the country. 10* (199) Bowling Green Falcons |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +2 | Top | 63-61 | Push | 0 | 88 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Nonconference Game of the Month. North Carolina has a game played this season and while that may seem like an advantage, it is actually a disadvantage in some cases and that includes this one as North Carolina rolled over Florida A&M but did not look good in doing so. It also gives the current opponent a whole game of film to dissect. Last week after a first possession punt, North Carolina scored touchdowns on its next three drives and eight of the next 10 to pull away. Florida A&M did have success of its own on offense as after two punts to open the game, it scored on four of its next six possessions with the last cutting the lead to 35-24 late in the third quarter before the Tar Heels pulled away with three fourth quarter touchdowns. North Carolina outgained the Rattlers 608-335 with the rushing game being the difference as it had 314 yards on 40 carries (7.9 ypc) while allowing just 56 yards on 27 carries (2.1 ypc). The area for concern for the Tar Heels was giving up 279 yards on 28-39 passing with a 7.2 yard per attempt average. While that rushing defense for North Carolina was solid, it takes a big step up in class here. Quarterback Chase Brice returns following a very successful campaign where threw for 3,020 yards, 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while completing 61.9 percent of his passes. Receivers do have to step up. He has the best offensive line in the conference in front of him with four starters back and both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples return along with their 2,463 rushing yards. Defensively, the Mountaineers lost five of their top seven tacklers but there is still plenty in the cupboard to make another run. The rushing defense, which led the Sun Belt last season, is the key to success on this side of the ball as Appalachian St. is undersized and inexperienced along the defensive line so the linebacking strength will have to keep this unit stout. 10* (178) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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09-02-22 | Temple +7 v. Duke | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. The last two seasons have seen a significant drop off as Duke has gone 5-18 and in comes new head coach Mike Elko to try and turn things around. The Blue Devils closed last season with eight straight losses with the defense allowing a whopping 46.6 ppg and no team can succeed with that. Only 11 starters are back in 2022 and they have one of the worst returning production rankings in the country so it could take some time for any sort of significant improvement in Durham. The offense this season is basically starting over with new players at the key positions but they can build around an experienced offensive line that returns four starters. Duke will turn to Riley Leonard at quarterback where he saw limited action last season. The defense was one of the worst in the country last season and one of the worst in program history as Duke was ranked No. 130 in total defense and No. 129 in scoring defense. Yes, Duke should be the favorite here but not by anything close to a touchdown After a 3-2 start last season, Temple closed with seven straight losses, all by 20 or more points and the writing was on the wall before the season ended as the team quit on head coach Rod Carey. It is not a complete rebuild but this is more about turning around the culture that went south fast. New head coach Stan Drayton comes over from Texas and has that winning culture in his back pocket in his first head coaching gig and the schedule is in their favor early on. On offense, quarterback D'Wan Mathis showed promise last season but was unable to stay on the field as he missed two games early as well as the final three games so keeping him healthy is goal number one. That will be the priority of the offensive line that has three starters back and should not have an issue with the Duke front. The defense has been gashed over the last two seasons, allowing close to 38 ppg and an inability to stop the run where they gave up nearly 5.0 ypc. This is the ideal matchup for a season opener to gauge where the unit stands. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were outscored by opponents by 17 or more ppg last season. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (159) Temple Owls |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue +3.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Last season, Purdue finished 9-4 that included quality wins over Iowa, Michigan St. and Tennessee and the four losses against teams with nine or more wins. 15 starters are back along with a No. 37 ranked recruiting class means Purdue could be here to stay now and for the foreseeable future. This is a statement game right out of the gate and the Boilermakers have the talent and experience to pull the upset. Quarterback Aiden O'Connell was outstanding in his first year as the full time starter as he threw for 3,712 yards with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing over 72 percent of his passes. The Purdue defense has typically been a sieve but it has improved in each of the last four seasons yardage-wise and last year was No. 48 in total defense and No. 34 in scoring defense and it was actually better than that as those rankings are inflated because of their bowl game. Penn St. closed last season 2-6, with the wins coming against Maryland and Rutgers, including closing with a dud against Arkansas in the Outback Bowl. It has been a very average stretch of late with Penn St. going 14-13 over its last 27 games going back to the end of the 2019 season and the Nittany Lions have only 11 starters back. Offensively, they bring back some excellent talent but the big question going into the season is the offensive line as only two starters are back and they will be mixing in some transfers and young players and it might take time to come together in finding the right rotation. Defensively, the Nittany Lions were solid against both the run and the pass and the main area of concern will be up front. Their sack leader is gone and the pass rush was not great to begin with as they had only 27 sacks and their 2.1 sack per game average was tied for No. 74 in the country. going back a level, the linebacking corps loses their top two tacklers that combined for 148 stops so the entire front seven is going to be a work in progress. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a completion percentage of 62 percent or better, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (146) Purdue Boilermakers |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State +9.5 | Top | 23-12 | Loss | -110 | 254 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. New Mexico St. has been dreadful for years and another rebuilding project is in store but they are getting no respect here at home and with a significant new coaching advantage. The good news is that Jerry Kill is on the sidelines once again after numerous health problems took him from coaching for a few years after being at Minnesota but came back as an interim coach at TCU last year. The hope is a great pedigree will bring some sort of turnaround. The Aggies are pretty much starting over on offense and that is not a bad thing as they have only three starters back which is part of the No. 129 ranked returning production offense. Kill is in place to turn around a running game that averaged 100.4 ypg, which was No. 104 in the country, and having lost its leading rusher, the Aggies turn to a pair of transplants to get it going. The offensive line is the most experienced group where those three starters return. The Aggies were horrible on defense last season but nine starters are back and this is an ideal offense to go against in their first game. First year head coach Ken Wilson, who was in the program for 21 years, inherits a Nevada team that was the most experienced in the country heading into last season with 22 returning starters to the least experienced coming into 2022 with only six starters back. Nevada has had four straight winning seasons including an 8-5 record last season that included three losses by two points apiece and those eight wins are tied for the most since 2010 but this year looks to be a rebuild from the start especially with an incoming recruiting class ranked No. 116. On offense, two starters are back, the running back and an offensive lineman and every other position will be up for grabs. Quarterback Carson Strong threw for 4,175 yards with 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions and will be impossible to replace and it will be either Shane Illingworth from Oklahoma St. or Nate Cox who threw only 43 passed last season for the Wolf Pack while the top five pass catchers are all gone. The defense is nearly as inexperienced with just four returning starters. 10* (304) New Mexico St. Aggies |
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08-27-22 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks -3 | Top | 25-18 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ELKS for our CFL Game of the Month. Football in Edmonton used to be a big deal but it has been some trying times for a while now. The Elks are 3-7 on the season with a playoff berth at least another year away but they have played better of late as all three of those wins came within their last seven games and the four defeats over this stretch have come against teams from the West Division. Additionally, all three wins have come on the road as the Elks are 0-4 at home and they have not won a home game in over 22 months as they are 0-12 over their last 12 home games. Thanks to some improved play over the last two weeks and the back end of a home-and-home series, this one sets up perfectly for the streak to end. Ottawa opened the season with three solid efforts with two games against Winnipeg and a game against B.C. resulting in losses by a combined 12 points but have struggled much more of late with four of their last five losses coming by at least a touchdown and the only victory on the season came at Toronto despite winning the yardage battle by just 26 total yards. The overall numbers are not horrible as Ottawa is ranked No. 5 in total offense and No. 7 in total defense but the quarterback situation remains a mess. Caleb Evans will take a seat and Nick Arbuckle will make the start on Saturday and while he has completed 66.7 percent of his passes in mop up duty, he has not thrown a touchdown while tossing two interceptions. The RedBlacks are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss. 10* (688) Edmonton Elks |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -12 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 244 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. It has been a forgettable run for the once proud Nebraska football program as it has had five straight losing seasons, the last four under current head coach Scott Frost. They have gone 13-31 in the Big Ten during this five-season slide and while the 3-9 record last season was the worst of them all, it was arguably the best of them all as far as competitiveness. All nine losses were by single digits and by an average of 6.2 ppg so Nebraska was painfully close to putting together a winning season. Taking over at quarterback will be Casey Thompson who transferred in from Texas following a great season where he threw for 2,113 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The top two receivers are gone and while there are a few holdovers, three solid transfers enter the picture. The Huskers are experienced on defense and to be a success, they need to take the ball away more and generate a bigger pass rush. The sacks should spike as the Huskers welcome defensive end Ochaun Mathis where he started 34 games at TCU and had 15.5 sacks. The defensive front did ok in stopping the run and that should also get better especially with Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich at linebacker, the two top tackling leaders, where they combined for 208 stops as a sophomore and freshman respectively. Last season, Northwestern went through a rebuilding year with only eight starters back and it showed with a 3-9 record, matching the 2019 team that had only 11 starters return, which are the two worst in the 16 seasons under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They are experienced on offense but the quarterback situation is still a concern. Ryan Hilinski will get a second chance after throwing for just 978 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. Defensively, only five starters are back with the top guy being linebacker Bryace Gallagher who was second on the team with 90 tackles and will have to be the leader with two new starters on the outside around him. The lone starter back on the defensive line is Adetomiwa Adebawore who led the team with 4.5 sacks from the middle and he will need help with most of the other sack producers having moved on while the secondary is a question mark as the best player is gone. 10* (300) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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08-26-22 | Saskatchewan +4 v. BC | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. The B.C. train keeps rolling along as the Lions are 8-1 on the season but they still train Winnipeg by a game in the West Division. They are coming off a win at Saskatchewan last week to make it five straight victories but the near future took a massive hit. Quarterback Nathan Rourke was hurt last week and is out for an undetermined period of time which is a huge loss. He passed for 375 yards in the abbreviated outing in Week 11 for his league-leading 6th game of the season with 300 or more yards and he has multiple touchdown passes in all nine of his starts. This will be the first career start for Michael O'Connor who was 5-5 last week when the game was already out of reach. Saskatchewan has now lost four of its last five games to fall to 5-5 on the season and it hits the road where it is 2-2 and a win here pulls it to within a half-game of Calgary in the West Division. Even without Rourke going for the Lions, this is not an easy matchup and while the value may seem to be on the other side, this is the contrarian side with the public biting on the smaller than anticipated number. The Roughriders will go with Cody Fajardo tonight after he was benched near halftime of the loss last week to the Lions and there is not a more motivational situation than this. The Roughriders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off in two straight division games. This situation is 133-75 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (685) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-19-22 | BC v. Saskatchewan +5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Game of the Week. Saskatchewan snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Edmonton last week and it heads back home trying to out an end to a two-game home losing skid. Injuries have played a role in the Roughriders 5-4 record and the big one has been quarterback Cody Fajardo who continues to play through his nagging knee injury and has done so while wearing a brace which has limited his running ability bit did score twice last week against the Elks. We are getting excellent value in this number as B.C. came here last month with the game listed as a pickem and now the Lions are laying a big number on the road in the second of three meetings in a span of four games. Saskatchewan is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games against teams averaging 325 or more passing ypg. B.C. continues to play at a high level and it is coming off a thrilling 41-40 win over rival Calgary as it trailed 40-31 with just over two minutes remaining but closed with a pair of scores including the game-winning 25-yard field goal with five seconds remaining. That was a huge victory that kept the Lions within a game of first place in the West Division behind Winnipeg. They are 3-0 on the road including that win here last month and they have dominated in doing so, outgaining the three opponents by an average of 236.7 ypg and that is playing into this number that opened at 3 and has been steamed up to as much as 5.5 in some places. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two straight division games. This situation is 180-120 (60 percent) since 1996. 10* (694) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-11 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Seattle heads home for its lone preseason game here and there will be some added incentive in front of the home crowd especially coming off a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Head coach Pete Carroll has taken winning in the preseason more importantly than some other NFL head coaches and he will be expecting his team to bounce back tonight. Word came out Wednesday that Seattle quarterback Drew Lock tested positive for COVID and will not play on Thursday meaning Geno Smith will get the start and it is far from a downgrade. Smith has gotten almost all of the reps with the first-team offense in training camp practices as well as all but one series in its mock game. He is expected to play the entire first half. It is a rebuilding season in Chicago as they have a new coach in Matt Eberflus and the players are still getting used to the new schemes. Chicago is coming off a win over Kansas City in its preseason opener and does not have a lot of room to get ready for this one with just a five-day window in-between games. Eberflus plans only to play his starters between six to 10 snaps against the Seahawks. This includes starting quarterback Justin Fields who looked decent against the Chiefs in the win last week but the first string offense failed to put points on the board. In the preseason, Seattle is 29-13 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses. 10* (402) Seattle Seahawks |
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08-12-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton +1.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. We won with Toronto last week as it defeated Hamilton 34-20 as a one point favorite at home and now comes in as a road favorite and the normal venue switch would make the Argonauts the dog here. Toronto has won three of its last four games and has a sizable lead in the East Division at 2.6 games over Hamilton and Montreal. Five of the Argonauts seven games have been at home and are 1-1 on the road. Toronto benefitted from an interception returned for a touchdown as well as a kick return for a touchdown so the game was closer than the final score indicates as Toronto was actually outgained by 91 total yards. The big reason for the line switch is that Matthew Shiltz will be starting over Dane Evans who is listed as doubtful but he will be facing a Toronto defense that has been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 277.9 ypg through the air. Despite the 2-6 record, Hamilton has outgained five of eight opponents and is +28.6 ypg in differential on the season. On defense, Hamilton is No. 2 in the CFL against the pass and will have to continue to get to the quarterback after registering three sacks last week. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 15. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (684) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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08-12-22 | Falcons v. Lions +1 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for out NFL Friday Enforcer. This is the only home preseason game for Detroit which may not play a huge factor but the value is in this number and with all of the hype around head coach Dan Campbell, this will be a motivated sideline to get the win to get the fanbase a little excited. Per Michigan Live, the plan is for the Lions first string to play about a quarter which is a benefit with a young roster. After Jared Goff sits at quarterback, Tim Boyle and David Blough will split the rest of the snaps under center and both have plenty of experience even though their regular season numbers are not good, that makes no difference here, especially going up against backups and rookies trying to make the team. Matt Ryan is gone and Marcus Mariota will take over the starting spot this season and indications are the Falcons will play their starters around one quarter on Friday via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The difference here as opposed to the Lions who will be playing veteran backups, the Falcons are planning to get a long look at rookie Desmond Ridder under center. While the Lions went 0-3 in the preseason last year, they were competitive and Atlanta also went 0-3 with three big losses so the motivation level for Arthur Smith does not seem to be there and there is more interest in the development of the younger players to help fill numerous holes. 10* (110) Detroit Lions |
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08-11-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC Preseason Game of the Month. The public will be flocking on the Ravens in their preseason opener based on their success over the last few years as they have gone 20-0 straight up and 18-2 ATS over their last 20 games. The linemakers hands were forced to make them a slightly over than typical home favorite in the preseason which is -3 taking home field into consideration and then adjusted based on matchups and info on playing time but that is not the case here. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, tight end Mark Andrews, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, safety Marcus Williams and outside linebacker Justin Houston are among the players who will be sitting out this game and very likely all of the others as Baltimore will be taking precautions to avoid injuries after running back J.K. Dobbins was injured in the preseason last year and had to miss the entire season. As for Tennessee, the rotation is still unclear on whether Ryan Tannehill will see any action in the opener and if he does, it will be just one series at most. There will be a quarterback battle for the backup spot between Logan Woodside and rookie Malik Willis with Woodside sitting No. 2 after the first depth chart release. He will get the majority of the snaps and knowing the system definitely helps. He was solid in the preseason last year, going 29-40 (72.5 percent) for 248 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and while Willis is new, he has had a good camp and will be an unknown to the Ravens as he can get it done with a very solid deep game as well as with running the ball. Running back Derrick Henry will not suit up for any of the preseason games which was announced prior to camp even opening. We are grabbing the value and going against the masses that have driven this line from the opener of -2.5 to its current number of over a field goal. 10* (107) Tennessee Titans |
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08-06-22 | Hamilton v. Toronto -1.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Game of the Week. After a 0-4 start to the season, Hamilton has won two of its last three games but neither were overly impressive as they came against Ottawa and Montreal by a combined nine points and both of those were at home. The Ti-Cats hit the road again where they are 0-3 while getting outgained by 44.4 ypg. To their credit, all three of those games have come against the much tougher West Division but they do now face the strongest team from the East, albeit a 3-3 squad. Quarterback Dane Evans has put up a decent amount of yards but he is completing only 67.4 percent of his passes and has tossed nine picks to his nine touchdowns and was given off a few series last week which we should see again here. Going back, the Ti-Cats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Toronto possesses the second best offense in the CFL as it is averaging 376.7 ypg and the problem has been getting the ball into the endzone as well as simply turning it over too much at the wrong times as it is averaging only 19.8 ppg but it is going up against a defense with the opposite effect. Hamilton in second in the league in total defense, allowing 350.0 ypg but is has given up 25.0 ppg which is No. 6 in the CFL and that is where the Argonauts can take advantage, especially at home. Quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson has been solid for the most part as he has thrown for 1,713 yards at a 71.4 percent completion rate but his six interceptions have cost him at times and he needs to cut those down. The Argonauts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss. 10* (696) Toronto Argonauts |
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08-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the MONTREAL ALLOUETTES for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. We played against Winnipeg last week as it came from behind to defeat Calgary to improve to 8-0 on the season. The two-time reigning Grey Cup champions have won 10 straight games going back to last season and the Blue Bombers have been far from dominant as they have been outgained in four of their seven games and on the season, they have been outyarded by over 15 ypg as they possess the No. 7 offense and No. 4 defense, which are not typical rankings for a 8-0 team. This is no doubt a letdown spot as after opening with four straight games against the East, the last four have come against the West including a pair over rival Calgary and this is the last of three straight road games and the first cross country trip. Montreal is coming off a loss against Hamilton which was its third in four games to fall to 2-5 on the season. The Alouettes have played better than that record as they have been outgained by just over eight ypg and they bring in the No. 6 ranked offense and defense which is certainly nothing special but they are close to being in the top half on both sides. Five of the first seven games have been on the road so this marks just the third home game of the season after starting 1-1. A one-point loss to Edmonton was not good but a 24-point win over Saskatchewan was a solid victory. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a close win by seven points or less over a division rival, in the first half of the season. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (692) Montreal Alouettes |
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07-30-22 | Winnipeg v. Calgary +1.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Game of the Month. After a 4-0 start, Calgary is coming off a loss against Winnipeg on the road as it was coming off a bye week and is now coming off another bye and back home playing with revenge. The Stampeders are 2-0 at home and have failed to cover either of those games and that brings some value as does the public love for the opponent. Calgary is ranked No. 2 in total offense while ranked No. 6 in total defense and it has outscored its opponents by close to 10 ppg while winning the yardage battle by 23 ypg. Bo Levi Mitchell has been as solid as always, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,299 yards with seven touchdowns and just three picks. Winnipeg is off to a 7-0 start and the reigning Grey Cup champions have won nine straight games going back to last season. The Blue Bombers have been far from dominant as they have been outgained in four of their seven games and on the season, they have been outyarded by close to 28 ypg as they possess the No. 8 offense and No. 5 defense, which are not typical rankings for a 7-0 team. They have help opponents out of the end zone but have faced a slew of poor offenses and while Calgary managed just 297 yards in the first meeting, expect a bigger effort at home. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (686) Calgary Stampeders |
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07-29-22 | BC v. Saskatchewan +2 | Top | 32-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. B.C. opened the season 3-0 before getting thumped at home against Winnipeg but it bounced back last week with a win against Hamilton and comes in as the road favorite which is just its second road game of the season. After dominating their first three games, the Lions have been outgained in each of their last two games and have fallen back into normalcy. They still lead the league in offense as they are averaging 447.2 ypg but have a tough matchup here. B.C. has scored only 39 combined points the last two games, and now faces a Roughriders defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards in the CFL and leads the league in sacks with 26. The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Saskatchewan opened the season 4-1 but has lost its last two games as it was swept against Toronto in back-to-back games. The Roughriders are coming off their worst effort in a 10-point loss to the Argonauts as they were outgained by 377 yards and while that is keeping the betting market off of them, they were severely shorthanded as many players were out due to a COVID outbreak. Quarterback Cody Fajardo missed that game with a knee injury and COVID issues but is now listed as probably which is big as Jake Dolegala struggled as his replacement. The Roughriders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .50 or better after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-30 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (684) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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07-21-22 | Hamilton +8.5 v. BC | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Hamilton has gone from a team that was a win away from winning the Grey Cup to a team that is off to a 1-4 start but has some momentum on its side following a win over Ottawa last week. Quarterback Dane Evans completed 21 of 28 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns and that is a big confidence boost. The Ti-Cats have not played as bad as the record shows as two losses have come by a combined seven points and they have outgained three of their five opponents. This is a big contrarian play as reading the Canadians papers shows that everyone loves the Ti-Cats to fall big but momentum is a big thing, especially against a team continuing to be overpriced. Hamilton is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams averaging 325 or more passing ypg. B.C. came back down to earth after a dominant 4-0 start as it lost to Winnipeg by 21 points two weeks ago and while it is coming off a bye week, the real Lions may have finally been exposed. Despite that, they are still being priced as the undefeated team and it is hard to be sold on a team that was so bad last season and has turned it around at the flip of a switch. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a division rival, in July games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (693) Hamilton Ti-Cats |
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07-15-22 | Calgary +4 v. Winnipeg | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. While 3 is a key point spread number in football, it does not really pertain to the CFL as much but there is still value in this number as we can give 3 to home field and Calgary is getting value over that and as of this point in the season, it has been the better of the two undefeated teams. The Stampeders are off to a 4-0 start and while the opposition has not been great, that can be said for both sides and they have been more dominant. Calgary is ranked No. 2 in total offense while ranked No. 5 in total defense and it has outscored its opponents by 14 ppg while winning the yardage battle by close to 45 ypg. Bo Levi Mitchell has been as solid as always, completing 69 percent of his passes for 1,112 yards with six touchdowns and just two picks. Calgary is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog while going 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games against the West Division. Winnipeg is 5-0 and it has not been overly impressive with the exception of the win over B.C. last time out but the Lions are not the team many think that started off. The Blue Bombers have gotten off to a slow start on offense is they are ranked No. 7, ahead of only Hamilton and Edmonton while the defense is ranked No. 6 in total defense but to their credit, they have kept the points off the board but those were against some anemic defenses. Overall, Winnipeg has been outgained by 34.8 ypg and it still gets the love based on the last two Grey Cup wins and the undefeated start. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a division rival, in July games. This situation is 47-16 ATS (74.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (683) Calgary Stampeders |
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07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan -4.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Game of the Week. This is the second of a home-and-home between Montreal and Saskatchewan after the Alouettes rolled over the Roughriders last week 37-13. Montreal is now 1-2 on the season and has covered all three games as it lost to Toronto by a point and Calgary by a field goal, both on the road. The win last week was deceiving however as the Alouettes outgained Saskatchewan by only five total yards as they returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and took advantage of two interceptions by Cody Fajardo, one returned for a touchdown. Additionally, the Roughriders did not help their cause by committing 11 penalties for 106 yards. That win was the first this season by a team from the East over a team from the West and on the season, the East is 1-9 against its counterpart division. Saskatchewan opened the season with a pair of double-digit wins against Hamilton and Edmonton and while those are two of the worst teams in the league, Montreal is not that much better and the loss last week can be blamed on the intangibles more than anything. To be fair, Fajardo was not good last week as he threw for only 191 yards to go along with those two picked and had a passer rating of 51.3 after posting ratings of 110.3 and 118.6 in his first two games. The Roughriders are ranked No. 2 in overall defense and No. 1 against the run and they held Montreal to just 60 yards on the ground last week. Expect the defense to come up strong again against either Trevor Harris or Vernon Davis, Jr. Here, we play on home teams that are averaging between 385 and 420 ypg going up against teams averaging between 345 and 385 ypg, after allowing 7.6 or more yppl in their previous game. this situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (686) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa +2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. B.C. has been the early season surprise in the CFL as it is off to a 2-0 start which is one win shy of its win total from all of last season. The Lions have destroyed both of their opponents by a combined score of 103-18 while winning the yardage battle by an average of 247 ypg but those were against two teams not expected to make much noise this season. B.C. hits the road for the first time this season and are travelling cross country on a short week and while playing another team that is not predicted to do a whole lot, the situation is not a good one. Quarterback Nathan Rourke has shredded the first two defenses he has faced as he has completed an amazing 87.8 percent of his passes while throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions but we will see what he can do against a defense that has had plenty of time to prepare. Ottawa is off to a 0-2 start but has looked good in doing so if that makes sense. The RedBlacks have played two-time Grey Cup Champion Edmonton twice and shut down the potent Blue Bombers offense both times, allowing only 19 points in each game. They outgained Winnipeg by 152 and 82 total yards and while it is only a two-game sample, they have the No. 2 ranked defense in the CFL and while the results are opposite of B.C., it can be argued their start is just as impressive. The offense has not produced on the scoreboard but quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has thrown for 355 ypg and 9.9 ypa and will test the Lions defense for the first time this season as they have faced Nick Arbuckle and McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Overall, the RedBlacks are ranked No. 2 in total offense so it is up the unit to produce in the clutch which has been the issue. Ottawa is coming off its first bye week which adds to the situational advantage as it has not left home in 19 days. 10* (682) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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06-25-22 | Toronto +5 v. BC | Top | 3-44 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Game of the Week. Both Toronto and B.C. are just one game into the season and while both are 1-0, the results were much different and because of this, we have seen the line climb from 3 to 4.5 and the big value is on the road team. Toronto escaped in its season opener following a bye in Week One as it defeated Montreal by a point, avoiding a loss with the Alouettes missing a field goal in the final seconds. The Argonauts were the top team in the East Division last season and hosted a playoff game but lost to Hamilton and they are coming into this season with some high expectations once again. They have failed to cover six of their last seven games going back to last season and that could also be playing a factor into this number. They have the edge of playing last week while B.C. had some momentum cut short with a week off. The Lions rolled in their season opener over the worst team in the CFL as they defeated Edmonton 59-15 thanks to a huge first half where they scored four touchdowns on four red zone trip while also adding rushing touchdowns of 36 and 21 yards. It was a very impressive victory based on final score and overall production but B.C. takes a big step up in competition here. The Lions were just 5-9 last season and did not do much to improve on the offensive side. They lost veteran Mike Reilly at quarterback who retired and while Nathan Rourke was impressive in his first starts, that was against the Elks and he will have a bigger challenge here against a defense that was average last season and made some strong upgrades. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a division rival, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (697) Toronto Argonauts |
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06-23-22 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal +4 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the MONTREAL ALOUETTES for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Montreal is off to a 0-2 start but both games could have gone either way. The Alouettes opened the season with a three-point loss at Calgary and followed that up with a one-point loss at Toronto last week as they missed a field goal in the last seconds of the game. They are now back in Montreal for their home opener and look to build off those first two impressive performances. Montreal outgained the Stampeders by 31 total yards and were outgained by just 19 total yards against the Argonauts and the season has started like what happened all of last season as the Alouettes lost four of their seven games by five points or less so they have been close to turning the corner. Vernon Adams, Jr. is out at quarterback but that is not a bad thing as Trevor Harris is the best backup in the league and threw for 270 yards in relief last week. The Roughriders are off to a 2-0 start , but those results are a little skewed. They opened the season against Hamilton and it was a close game until they pulled away in the fourth quarter and then last week against Edmonton, they trailed going into the final quarter and ended up with another double-digit win. The defense has carried the team thus far late in games and are at a scheduling disadvantage here. Saskatchewan heads east for the first time and has had two fewer days off than Montreal which is an issue as the shortened turnaround hurts when trying to prep for two quarterbacks as it had to early in the week. Saskatchewan is 5-15 ATS on its last 20 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here, we play against teams off a win over a division rival, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (692) Montreal Alouettes |
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06-18-22 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks +8 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ELKS for our CFL Game of the Week. Saskatchewan opened the season with a 30-13 win over Hamilton but it was not overly dominant as it outrushed the Ti-Cats by just 49 yards and outpassed them by just 41 yards. The Roughriders benefitted from five Hamilton turnovers and the ones that happened late decided the game as Saskatchewan was up by just a score of 15-13 with less than four minutes left and scored 15 unanswered points over that final stretch. Hamilton also hurt itself by getting in tough situations as on 17 occasions, it faced a second and long and those catch up quickly. Sure, the Roughriders defense can be given some credit on those first down stops but overall, it was a clearly misleading final score as Saskatchewan in now overvalued hitting the road for the first time. The Roughriders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Edmonton is coming off an awful opening game against B.C. as it lost 59-15 but was outgained by a more respectable 153 total yards which is by no means good, but that does not correlate to the final score. Quarterback Nate Arbuckle was 20-29 for 254 yards but tossed three interceptions and falling behind 42-6 at halftime was an insurmountable deficit. The Elks are coming off a 3-11 season and not much is expected this year as they are +2,500 to win the Grey Cup, easily the longest odds in the league but there are improvements even though they were not fully on display in the first game. The Elks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against favorites after one or more consecutive straight up wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (688) Edmonton Elks |
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06-17-22 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa +4.5 | Top | 19-12 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. This is the second of a home-and-home between Winnipeg and Ottawa with the Blue Bombers escaping with a 19-17 win and it should have not been that close, going the other way. The RedBlacks outgained Winnipeg 441-289 but had some costly penalties and were forced into three field goals and a single as they could not execute deep when needed while ending the first half at the Winnipeg 22-yard line with timeouts remaining but inexplicably let the time run out. Jeremiah Masoli had a big game in his first start for Ottawa as he was 24-34 for 380 yards with a touchdown and an interception and despite losing, Ottawa has to be encouraged in its season opener. The game was decided by a Winnipeg field goal with six seconds left which left the RedBlacks despondent but an early revenge spot at home will have them ready. The RedBlacks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in June. Winnipeg should be better but this is clearly a bad matchup and a big factor here is the line. The Blue Bombers closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home and now they are favored by just a couple points less on the road which is not the typical line swing based on home field. The fact Winnipeg won is the one thing that the common bettor will look at and not take advantage of digging deeper into the game to see exactly what transpired. The Blue Bombers are the team with the bulls-eye on its back and they continue to be overvalued going back to last season as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Here, we play against favorites after one or more consecutive straight up wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (684) Ottawa RedBlacks |