Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions +3 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 12 m | Show |
The Super Bowl hangover has not affected the Falcons which have won their first two games although they were fortunate to get out of Chicago with a win Week One. They looked great last week at home against the Packers but they were in such a good spot as it was their first home game since losing the Super Bowl and in a brand-new stadium on top of that. The energy was out of control but now they hit the road again as an overvalued team in a suspect role as a road favorite and coming off a Sunday night game against a non-divisional opponent causes a letdown. Clearly, this is a very good team but as pointed out many times over the years, great teams do not win every week and we must find the spots to figure that out. Detroit is also 2-0 following its Monday night win over the Giants. The Lions have been great defensively so far as they are allowing 289 ypg which is No. 7 in the league as they have shut down the Cardinals and Giants. We must decipher if this is a fluke or if the Lions are for real to prove their playoff appearance last season was not a fluke. Last season, Detroit had 26 sacks, tied for second-to-last in the league, forced only nine fumbles and made 10 interceptions, ranking in the bottom third in both categories and that is something that will turn around this season making the defense even stronger. The Lions showed balance on offense last week and they will need that here to control the clock and keep the Falcons offense off the field. Going back, the Lions are 10-3 over their last 13 home games and going back, they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (478) Detroit Lions |
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09-23-17 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -6.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 79 h 27 m | Show |
We lost Wyoming last week as more credit has to be given to Oregon and turnaround that is going on in Eugene under head coach Willie Taggart. The Cowboys remain home for the third straight week as they open conference action in a bad mood. Expectations were huge coming into the season and those expectations should remain high as losing to Iowa and Oregon is nothing to get down about but a strong start in the MWC is vital. Quarterback Josh Allen was an early season Heisman sleeper but he has been horrible looking at the statistics but he is not totally at fault as the receivers cannot separate and have had numerous drops behind an offensive line that has not been able to protect so the hope is that gets shored up as the season progresses and it starts here as the Cowboys take a huge step down in competition. Hawaii is a team on the move but there are still questions surrounding the defense which could hurt this week. The Warriors allowed 35 points against Massachusetts in their season opener and the Minutemen have averaged only 18.7 ppg in their three games since then. UCLA put up 56 points against them two weeks ago and Wyoming is more than capable of naming the score as long as the receivers get their act together which will happen here. Hawaii is coming off a bye week and while that may seem like an edge because of the travel, this has not been the case in the past as the Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games coming off a bye so it has been the opposite effect. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* (364) Wyoming Cowboys |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | Top | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Saturday Star Attraction. With a quarter of the season in the books for most teams, we have a good read on what has transpired and how the markets are reacting. Coming into the season, we knew Penn St. was going to be a very solid team that would give Ohio St. and Michigan all they could handle in the Big Ten East and thus far, they have been one of the most dominant teams in college football. But it can be considered somewhat of an illusion based on who the Nittany Lions have played as they have played the No. 148 schedule in the nation according to the Sagarin Rankings and that is the easiest schedule of all Big Ten teams. The win over Pittsburgh may look good but Penn St. was outgained and now it takes to the road for the first time this season. Iowa is also 3-0 including an impressive home win over Wyoming and followed that up with a come-from-behind road win over rival Iowa St. The Hawkeyes could have lost focus after that but they dominated North Texas last week to get ready for conference action and they are catching an inflated number because of the Penn St. hype. The Nittany Lions went 2-0 last season as double-digit road favorites but those came against Purdue and Rutgers which went a combined 5-19 so laying double-digits against a team with a pulse is overaggressive. Iowa is 13-7-2 as a home dog under head coach Kirk Ferentz including 8-4 ATS when getting more than a touchdown. The Hawkeyes defeated No. 2 Michigan here last season and this was after losing at Penn St. by 27 points which was its worst loss since 2014 so revenge is very much in play. The Hawkeyes have played 12 games under the lights at Kinnick Stadium in the Ferentz era and they have gone 9-3. 10* (318) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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09-23-17 | UTSA -13.5 v. Texas State | Top | 44-14 | Win | 100 | 77 h 36 m | Show |
Texas St. comes into Week Four with a 1-2 record, having won its season opener against Houston Baptist by just nine points but losing both games against FBS teams. Last week will be hard to recover from. Texas St. jumped out to a 10-0 lead but managed only one field goal the rest of the way despite getting inside the Appalachian St. 25-yard line in three of its final four drives. The Bobcats missed a field goal and late in the fourth quarter, they recovered a fumble at their own one-yard line and drove 98 yards only to be stopped short at the Mountaineers one-yard line as time expired. The Bobcats are projected to be the worst team in the FBS and if not that, at least in the bottom five as there is not much here. Last season, Texas St. finished No. 126 in total offense including dead last in the nation in rushing offense and No. 117 in total defense. Texas-San Antonio is off to a 2-0 start and while the win over Baylor is not looking as good as it once did, it was still a strong win over a Power 5 team on the road. The Roadrunners are expected to contend in the C-USA West Division and rightfully so as they are the No. 2 most experienced team in the country and coming off the first bowl game in school history. They have a bye next week before conference action starts so there is no reason to think they will not go all out here before a big game against Southern Miss. UTSA has the best defense in the conference so Texas St., which has yet to score more than 20 points, will have a tough time getting points on the board here. 10* (389) UTSA Roadrunners |
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09-23-17 | Arkansas State v. SMU -5.5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 76 h 7 m | Show |
SMU is coming off a loss at TCU and it was an unfortunate loss as the Mustangs were looking to go into halftime with the lead but the Horned Frogs scored a touchdown on a Hail Mary and then ran off three straight late touchdowns including an interception return for a score. It was still a decent effort for SMU which is turning the corner under head coach Chad Morris. The Mustangs brought back 14 starters and are the No. 10 most experienced team in the country highlighted by an offense that brings back their quarterback, top three rushers and top five receivers. Even though they were not tested, the offense scored 58 and 54 points in its first two games and that offense should keep rolling here. Arkansas St. played well in its season opener at Nebraska, had a bye because of a cancellation and then blew out Arkansas-Pine Bluff last week which is not saying a lot. The Red Wolves finished in a tie for first in the Sun Belt Conference after winning it outright the year before and they are expected to contend again this season. But that is due to the conference being weak as they have only 10 starters back with the defense being bit the most. The offense is one dimensional as SMU's defense will be able to focus more on defending the pass because of Arkansas St.'s lack of a run game. Its leading rusher, junior Warren Wand, is averaging 65.5 ypg and behind him, no one has more than 37 rushing yards this season. Going back, the Mustangs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Look for a big bounce back performance this Saturday. 10* (378) SMU Mustangs |
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09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -13.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. There are already numerous coaches on the proverbial hot seat and you can now add Mike Riley to that list. After a narrow win over Arkansas St. to open the season, the Huskers got thumped at Oregon as the score was not indicative of how the game played out and last week, they lost at home against Northern Illinois. However, that game was not the same as the Oregon game. Nebraska dominated the time of possession 36:34-23:26 and outgained the Huskies 384-236 but could not recover from an early deficit. The Huskers threw interceptions on two of their first four possessions and both were returned for touchdowns. People are down on Nebraska and this is the perfect time to buy low. Rutgers is also 1-2 as it picked up its first win of the season last week against Morgan St. 65-0. The Scarlett Knights were favored by 41 points so that lopsided win came as no surprise and Morgan St. has been outscored 101-0 through three games. They played Washington tough in their season opener but followed that up with a dud against Eastern Michigan as they lost by a field goal as a 5.5-point chalk. Now Rutgers takes to the road for the first time this season and the highway has not been kind to this team. Rutgers has lost seven of its last eight road games dating back to 2015 and it has covered just two of its last nine games as a road underdog. The Scarlet Knights could not be going to Lincoln at a worse time and with Illinois on deck for Nebraska, there will be no lookahead. Based on the first three games, the Huskers have no choice but to put together their best effort of the young season. 10* (350) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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09-23-17 | Cincinnati v. Navy -11.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This is a great spot for Navy which is coming off a bye week after an average performance the previous week against Tulane. The Midshipmen won by two points but that was a tough matchup considering the Green Wave run a similar option style offense so there were a lot of familiarities on both sides so neither team could break away. They have a much better matchup this week as they open conference action in hopes of getting back to the AAC Championship after suffering a bad loss against Temple last season and this is their first conference home game since then. You know what you are getting with Navy week in and week out and that is a solid running game and disciplined football on both sides. Cincinnati is 2-1 following a win last week over Miami Ohio but it was a victory it never should have had. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 361-291 but scored just once through three quarters as it had two interceptions, a missed field goal and a turnover on downs. Miami kicked a field goal with 4:45 left in the game to take a 17-6 lead but Cincinnati went 75 yards on eight plays to pull within three points and then three plays later, picked off a Gus Ragland pass and returned it 14 yards for the winning score. While they lost by just 22 points at Michigan, the game should not have been that close as Cincinnati was outgained by 214 yards and in its season opener, Cincinnati was outgained by Austin Peay in its 26-14 win. Cincinnati won only four games last season with three of those wins coming against losing teams and another against UT-Martin of the FCS. The Bearcats have just 11 starters back this season as well as a new coach and new systems that they are still struggling with. 10* (358) Navy Midshipmen |
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09-23-17 | Boston College +35 v. Clemson | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our Saturday Wiseguy Wipeout. Clemson opened its season against Kent St. and we played against the Tigers there with the thought being they would be far from focused coming off their National Championship season. While that was not the case, Kent St. did not help matters by not even showing up. Now we have a similar situation but one that is bookended during the season. Clemson is coming off a pair of high-profile wins over Auburn and Louisville and if that is not enough, the Tigers have a game at Virginia Tech on deck, a team they narrowly escaped from the ACC Championship last season. The Tigers are not in position to lose this game but this is a huge number to cover and it is creeping toward that Kent St. number and Boston College is much better than the Golden Flashes. It may not seem so since the Eagles are 1-2 with the win being a close victory at Northern Illinois but the fact they are 0-3 against the number is also adding value the pointspread this week. The Boston College defense is a perennial strength of this team but it has been shredded the last couple weeks which is a surprise. Offensively is where the challenge come here as the Clemson defense is arguably the best in the country right now but after allowing 27 points against Auburn and Louisville, it will be hard to sustain such a high level of play especially against a team it knows it should beat with ease. Clemson has stepped up its game going back to last season as it has flourished against the elite teams but they have failed to cover seven of their last nine games against teams with a losing record. This is a team that we can step in front of only when the situation is right and it is this Saturday. 10* (319) Boston College Eagles |
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09-22-17 | Virginia +13 v. Boise State | Top | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA CAVALIERS with our Friday Enforcer. We played against Boise St. last Thursday and we will go against the once again overvalued Broncos. We caught a fortunate back-door cover with New Mexico last week but at the same time, we caught a bad break early on when Lobos quarterback Lamar Jordan left the game after a late hit and they were down to their third starting quarterback for over a half. Boise St. was able to keep the New Mexico offense in check but most teams could when facing a third string quarterback and they actually were outgained. It was the offense that continued to struggle as the Broncos managed 44 points against Washington St. but 13 of those points came in overtime and prior to that, they put up just 24 points against Troy. Virginia hits the road for the first time but this is familiar territory for head coach Bronco Mendenhall from his time at BYU and he looks to be turning the Cavaliers program around. The Cavaliers have already matched their win total from last year and the defense has improved by 117 ypg. The rushing defense has been the weaker of the two defensive units but Boise St. has been struggling to run the ball as the Broncos are averaging only 3.78 ypc and last week, Boise State's top two running backs, Alexander Mattison and Ryan Wolpin, combined for a paltry 49 yards (2.9 ypc) against New Mexico. The blue turf used to cause fits for visitors but the home field advantage is gone as the Broncos are 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. This streak will not last forever but the linesmakers are not doing them any favors by continuing to saddle them with double-digit lines. 10* (305) Virginia Cavaliers |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Thursday Primetime Play. San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL that have not scored a touchdown through the first two weeks of the season while the Rams are averaging 33 ppg which is tied for third in the NFL. Because of this, it comes as no surprise the Rams are favored on the road and the public is eating it up. Los Angeles is the better team here but if the better team always won, there would be no point in playing the games. Even saying that the Rams are the better team may not be true because we have yet to see the real 49ers team and what they are capable of in a matchup like this. While they have yet to score a touchdown, they have played the Seahawks and Panthers, two of the strongest teams and defenses in the NFC and the schedule is ranked No. 8. And they were not dominant in those games as they have been outgained by just 70 and 64 total yards. Los Angeles meanwhile has played the No. 29 ranked schedule as it has faced the Colts, clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL without Andrew Luck, and the Redskins, who have their problems as well. They are now favored for a third straight game and in their first road game of the season no less. While the 49ers lack of offense has been the story, the defense has quietly played very well, allowing just 299.5 ypg and 17.5 ppg, both ranked in the top ten. This unit was expected to be much better this season and so far, it has made improvements and the jury is still out on the Rams offense. The 49ers hit the road for three straight games after this so they know this is a big game to not let the season get away from them early and we will see that effort tonight. 10* (302) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-21-17 | Temple v. South Florida -18.5 | Top | 7-43 | Win | 100 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our Thursday Star Attraction. We won with South Florida this past Friday as it put together its best game of the young season, amassing 680 yards of total offense while picking up 38 first downs on 98 plays from scrimmage. The Bulls won their first two games over San Jose St. and Stony Brook but it was not their best efforts although it can be argued they did not want to give too much away. They are laying a couple more points than they did against the Illini but that should not come into play here as there will be plenty of motivation to not only win but to win big. Temple is a shell of the team that rolled to consecutive 10-4 records the last two seasons as the Owls not only lost 12 starters including seven on one of the best defenses in the country but they also lost head coach Matt Rhule who left for the Baylor job. While he is not doing well at his new gig, he was responsible for putting the Temple program back on the map. The Owls have been outgained in all three games including losing the yardage battle by 49 yards against Villanova of the FCS and by 71 yards against winless UMass last week. Those games were won because of special teams and kicking but it is going to take more than that against the Bulls. Temple was outrushed by 337 yards in its season opener against Notre Dame and that is bad news against a South Florida team that is outrushing opponents by an average of close to 200 ypg. The Bulls motivation not only comes from this being the season opener and biggest game in the AAC East Division but also because of looking to avenge the 16-point loss at Temple last season which kept them out of the AAC Championship. 10* (304) South Florida Bulls |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our Monday Primetime play. There were four teams from Week One that are expected to be playoff contenders whose offenses looked in shambles, namely the offensive lines of each. The Bengals, Texans and Seahawks were the first three that played this week and none of those looked much better, scoring 9, 13 and 12 points respectively. The Giants are the fourth team of that group and we are expecting them to show the most improvement. They are coming off a dreadful game at Dallas where they managed just three points and 233 yards of offense. The rushing game was non-existent with only 35 yards and while Eli Manning had only 220 yards through the air, he was efficient by going 29-38. Odell Beckham Jr. has been upgraded to probable and his presence alone even though he is not at 100 percent is huge. The Lions defeated Arizona last week in a come-from-behind victory as they scored 26 unanswered points in the second half before the Cardinals tacked on a late garbage touchdown. Detroit was fortunate that Arizona lost David Johnson as the game took the turn once he left late in the third quarter. The Lions struggles in the run game have been well documented, and nothing that happened last week against the Cardinals offers any hope that is going to change. The Giants have one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL with a solid defensive line and a deep secondary and the Lions will not be repeating their offensive outburst this week. This line opened at 5 and has been brought down to the number we were expecting and hoping to get as the Giants rebound and shake off the offensive woes. 10* (290) New York Giants |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Sunday Primetime Play. Atlanta escaped its season opener in Chicago as it dodged a fourth quarter bullet as the Bears were unable to get into the endzone late in the game after driving into the redzone. The Falcons head back to Atlanta for their home opener and first game here since their Super Bowl meltdown and it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday night. This is also the first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium so it will be rocking. Atlanta averaged 35 ppg at home last season and after putting up just 23 points in Chicago, this offense will be ready to score a bunch and the Packers know about that all too well. They lost twice here last season, once during the regular season 33-32 and then in the NFC Championship 44-21. This is a different Green Bay team this time around as the defense is healthy so that gives it an edge but Green Bay has never been as good on the road and is coming off a lackluster effort at home against Seattle last Sunday. The Seahawks offensive line showed why it is the weakness of the team so the nine points allowed is a bit skewed because of that. The one weakness in the Packers defense is the secondary and this is not the team it wants to face early in the season especially with Matt Ryan looking in mid-season form, going 21-30 for 321 yards last week. Many will be on the Packers in the double-revenge spot but road revenge is never an easy thing to accomplish and while the Falcons had the Super Bowl hangover last week, that will be gone this week. Any line under a field goal is ideal but even if this settles in at the three points, we are in great shape for an easy cover. 10* (288) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Sunday Wiseguy Wipeout. We played against the Broncos last week which resulted in a win or a push depending where and when it was played but we are backing them this week and not because they won last week. That was more of a play on San Diego which was coming off an injury plagued season and still lost numerous close games and that was the result again in Week One this season. Even though Denver has the disadvantage of playing a game after a Monday night late game, it remains home so any disadvantage is negated. Playing early season home games has been beneficial to Denver with success coming from that and a lot of that is based on the rest of the league not being able to keep up. The Broncos have gone 2-0 the last seven times they have opened the season with two straight home games and that can be attributed to conditioning in the high altitude of Denver while the opposition is not ready for the Mile-High air early in the season. Dallas is coming off an impressive home win over the Giants on Sunday night but some of that can be attributed to the Giants inept offense that has no offensive line and no running game which spells big trouble for Eli Manning. The core group of the Cowboys is back but they did lose 10 players that accounted for over 500 games so depth could be an issue although that did not come into play against New York. At over 5,000 feet above sea level, that will come into play. The Cowboys were an unheard of 10-0 outside the NFC East last season but only four of those wins were against teams above .500. going back to last season, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record and have no business being a favorite in this spot. 10* (284) Denver Broncos |
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09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our Sunday Enforcer. Washington is coming off an unfortunate home loss against Eagles in its season opener as a two-point game late in the fourth quarter ended up being a comfortable win for Philadelphia after a late turnover was turned into a touchdown despite it being a questionable one that could have been reversed. The Redskins hurt their cause with four turnovers which included three lost fumbles and those can be considered unlucky breaks at the time. Now the Redskins must trek to the west coast in hopes of avoiding a 0-2 start and they catch a Rams team in the perfect spot. Los Angeles is coming off a blowout win over Indianapolis 46-9 but the game was not as one-sided as the score shows. The Rams returned two Scott Tolzien interceptions for touchdowns as he had a horrible game in his first start with the Colts. Los Angeles allowed single-digits after allowing 24.6 ppg last season, good for No. 23 in the league. There will be people hopping back on the Rams train overreacting to that victory but also knowing that head coach Sean McVay will be facing his former team where he was the offensive coordinator while linebackers coach Joe Barry will also be going against his former squad where he was the defensive coordinator. They will know the tendencies of their former players which can be considered an edge but current Washington coaches will know the tendencies of their former coaches so it can be considered a wash. The Redskins have a solid situation on their side as we play against teams coming off an opening game where they scored 40 or more points and playing a team off a loss. This situation is 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1980. 10* (281) Washington Redskins |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 67 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Game of the Week. We had Best Bets on both Tennessee and Jacksonville last Sunday but managed to hit just one of those as the Titans fell short at home against Oakland. Tennessee was outgained by just nine total yards as the issue was in the red zone. While Marcus Mariota still has never tossed a red zone interception, the Titans were just 1-3 as they had to settle for two short field goals. While they arguably face a stronger defense this week, their offensive line is going to fare a lot better than what the Texans did last week. The Jaguars defense looked like one of the best in the NFL against Houston as they registered 10 sacks while holding the Texans to only seven points and 203 total yards. Mariota was sacked only once last week and Tennessee allowed the seventh fewest sacks last season. The Titans ran the ball only 21 times last week and we should see more balance this week to take some of the pressure off Mariota who was still efficient against the Raiders despite being one of only eight starting quarterbacks not to throw a touchdown pass. The Titans will be out for revenge as well as they lost here by 21 points on Christmas Eve which knocked them out of the playoffs and also knocked Mariota out for the year. While Jacksonville is riding confidence after the big road win, it is in a tough spot as it has to travel to London next week to face Baltimore and teams have gone 10-21-1 in the 32 games prior to their games in London. Going back, the Jaguars are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (261) Tennessee Titans |
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09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore looked very impressive in a 20-0 win over Cincinnati last Sunday but it was more of a Bengals implosion than a Ravens domination. Cincinnati had five turnovers and while it can be argued the Baltimore defense had a lot to do in forcing those, most of those were on Andy Dalton. The Ravens offense is still a concern as Joe Flacco looked like a quarterback that got no substantial preseason snaps, which he did not, and this unit could struggle for a while. The Ravens did rush for 157 yards which was the third highest in Week One but that total came on 42 carries and their 3.7 ypc average was just middle of the pack. The Browns showed a lot of positives last week against the Steelers, especially on defense where they allowed 290 yards including a mere 35 yards on the ground which was tied for fewest in the league while the 2.1 ypc average was second best. There are still concerns on offense but DeShone Kizer looked pretty comfortable in his first start. The one big thing the Brown have going on offense is their offensive line which is definitely in the top part of the league with key additions to go along with future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas. Cleveland could not run the ball which was a surprise but committing to Isaiah Crowell is a must after he averaged 4.8 ypc last season. It is safe to say Cleveland is a better all-around team than last season yet Baltimore is laying more points now than it was in the matchup here last season and Cleveland came into that game 0-9. This is the classic case of bettors backing Baltimore because of what they saw last week and we need to look toward the future and not rely heavily on the past. 10* (263) Cleveland Browns |
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09-16-17 | Kentucky +7 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 80 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our Saturday Star Attraction. South Carolina is the second highest public consensus home team on the entire Week Three board based on the fact that the Gamecocks are playing their home opener after a 2-0 start and laying a short number. Typically, this is a good spot for a team as they are brimming with confidence while also playing with triple revenge from three losses the last three years. While winning is great, how teams win also has a lot to do with that and South Carolina is fortunate to be in this undefeated spot. In their first game at NC State, the Wolfpack outgained South Carolina 504-246 and had 17 more first downs but mistakes did them in. Not only did the Gamecocks return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, they also benefited from scoring drives of just 40 and 13 yards following NC State turnovers. Last week, they were outgained by 64 yards against Missouri but returned another kickoff for a touchdown and benefitted from a 3-0 turnover edge. So, despite sitting No. 63 in the country in scoring offense, they are just No. 114 in total offense. Kentucky is also 2-0 after a pair of lackluster wins over Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky but those were two games the Wildcats were not exactly pumped up for. While they do face Florida next week, this is their SEC opener as well and they will be ready. Kentucky is coming off its first bowl game since 2010 and its 17 returning starters is tied for most in the conference so there are big expectations in Lexington this season. If for nothing else, this game would be a pickem on a neutral field so this line is inflated even though it may be considered short to some. When it is feasible that the underdog can win the game outright, that underdog is a take. 10* (111) Kentucky Wildcats |
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09-16-17 | LSU v. Mississippi State +7.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our Saturday enforcer. LSU is being called a sleeper team in the SEC by some but that mean the Tigers would have to win in Alabama at the start of November which will be a tough task. They are coming off an 8-4 season and after four straight double-digit win seasons, the Tigers have suffered three straight single-digit win seasons. We do not quite think that the Tigers are back to their elite status so they should once again fall into the latter group win total and that boasts well for the Bulldogs which have played the Tigers close each of the last three years with a win by five points and losses by two and three points. LSU has allowed just 10 points through two games but one of those came against Chattanooga of the FCS and the other against BYU which we have seen is offensively inept through its three games. Those are two games that it is hard to judge how good this team really is with this being the first challenge of the season. This is the first big challenge for Mississippi St. as well although it easily defeated a very good Louisiana Tech team last week while holding the Bulldogs to just 21 points after averaging at least 37 ppg on offense each of the last three years. Offensively, this is where the Bulldogs are supposed to improve from the last few years as quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is a duel-threat that is coming off a very strong 2016 season where he passed for 2,423 yards while leading the team in rushing with 1,495 yards, earning him Third Team All-SEC honors. Mississippi St. will not have an easy time with the always tough LSU defense but the Tigers return only five starters which is their fewest since 2013. Additionally, starting defensive end Rashard Lawrence will be out with an ankle injury. 10* (188) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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09-16-17 | Idaho +21 v. Western Michigan | Top | 28-37 | Win | 100 | 76 h 17 m | Show |
We played against Western Michigan in Week One against USC and clearly did not get the best effort from the Trojans which seemed to play uninspired with Stanford on deck. We also played against the Broncos last week and they brought nothing against Michigan St. as they managed only 195 yards of total offense as both touchdowns scored were on defense and special teams. While they were underdogs in those games. They were still overvalued based on the spectacular season from a year ago and now they go into the role of a heavy favorite. Granted, it is a big step down in class but Western Michigan lost so much from 2016 that it is going to be a while for this team to come together. The Broncos will be jacked for their home opener but they will not be sneaking up on anyone. We played against Idaho last week but that was more of a play on UNLV than a play against the Vandals with the thinking that the Rebels would bounce back after suffering that horrible home loss against Howard which they did in a big way. Idaho overachieved last season with a 9-4 record that included a blowout win over Colorado St. in its bowl game that was not as close as the final score indicated and this is still a solid team with a lot of senior experience. The Vandals have been one of the best road dogs over the last few years even when they were not winning many games as they are 14-3 ATS when getting points on the highway since 2014. Idaho was riding a six-game winning streak going into last week but caught the Rebels at the wrong time as any other time it results in a Vandals victory. 10* (181) Idaho Vandals |
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09-16-17 | Oregon v. Wyoming +14 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 15 m | Show |
Oregon comes into the 2017 as a team that many are expected to bounce back from a horrific 2016 season but the problem is that the Ducks will not be sneaking up on anyone and that includes the linesmakers. They rolled over Southern Utah in their season opener and looked like they were going to roll again last week against Nebraska but they allowed the Huskers to get back into the game after opening up a 42-14 halftime lead only to win by a touchdown. Now Oregon hits the road for the first time under new head coach Willie Taggart and even in the glory days a few years back, Oregon was not nearly as good on the road. That is not stopping the public however as Oregon is the third highest public consensus on the board despite the books excessively inflating the line. Wyoming struggled in its opening game at Iowa as it lost by 21 points but was outgained by just 30 total yards as the Cowboys were done in by mistakes including the now famous missed punt that led to a touchdown right before halftime. They bounced back with a solid win last week against Gardner Webb where they did not show much looking ahead to this week and they will have a nice home field edge this week hosting a team not used to playing over 7,000 feet above sea level. The Cowboys improved defense is tied for ninth in the country in scoring defense at 12.0 ppg and 12th in total defense at 229.0 ypg. This is a very dangerous team with Josh Allen at quarterback that brought back 14 starters from last season where it went 8-6 with four of those losses coming by three points. 10* (186) Wyoming Cowboys |
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09-16-17 | Tulane +34.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 17 m | Show |
Situational spots are extremely important in college football and how a team reacts when given those certain situations. Oklahoma is coming off a monster win at Ohio St. as it got revenge from a loss in 2016 and now hosts a Tulane team that has won only 11 games since 2014. The Sooners dominated the second half against the Buckeyes as they scored touchdown on four of five possessions not counting the final one where they were not looking to score. Not only does this spell a letdown spot but the Sooners have their Big XII opener next week on the road against Baylor and while the Bears have looks horrible, it is still a game to be looked forward to. Tulane rolled in its opener against Grambling which is not saying much but it held its own last week at Navy and nearly pulled off the upset, losing by just three points. We rode the Green Wave then and will do so again as this is a team on the rise under head coach Willie Fritz. They were outgained by only 24 ypg and outscored by just 3.6 ppg last season and while the Sooners are clearly the more talented team by a long shot, the line is taking that into consideration but it is not taking into consideration the bad spot. Tulane runs the option which is tough to prepare for and there is no chance Oklahoma was preparing for it ahead of time during Ohio St. week. The Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Green Wave are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (163) Tulane Green Wave |
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09-16-17 | SMU +19.5 v. TCU | Top | 36-56 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our Non-Conference Game of the Month. While this is a huge rivalry that dates to 1915, it has not been much of a series lately with TCU winning 15 of the last 17 meetings including the last five. The last four games have been decided by at least 19 points but we should see a much close game this season with an improving Mustangs program taking the field. SMU won a total of three games in 2014 and 2015 but finished with five wins last season and have a legitimate shot at making it to a bowl game this season. The Mustangs bring back 14 starters and are the No. 10 most experienced team in the country highlighted by an offense that brings back their quarterback, top three rushers and top five receivers. Even though they have not been tested, the offense has scored 58 and 54 points through two games. This is impressive considering SMU averaged a mere 11.1 ppg in 2014. Defensively, there are still questions along the defensive line but the back seven is loaded. We won with TCU last week as it handled Arkansas which was a big revenge game from an overtime loss in 2016. The horned Frogs went just 6-7 last season but are looking to be a player in the Big XII but they are being asked to lay a big number coming off a big win and having to travel to Oklahoma St. next week for their conference opener. The amount of focus here will be in question as this is the classic sandwich spot and against a team that now knows it is on the rise. TCU has been overvalued for a while now as it has failed to cover nine straight home games while going 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a win of 20 or more points. 10* (167) SMU Mustangs |
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09-16-17 | Baylor +14.5 v. Duke | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our Saturday Wiseguy Wipeout. When you hear the statement, "teams are not as good as they looked last week and teams are not as bad as they looked last week", this game will come to mind although the public will not be buying the aforementioned statement. Duke is going to be a big public play this week if wagering on this game or it will be a pass as laying money on the Bears is not going to happen for a lot of people. The value in this game is arguably the best on the entire board but that is offset by what we have seen through two weeks although the latter does not affect us as I do not care what has transpired the first two weeks. Baylor was shocked at home against Liberty in its first game and followed that up with a loss against Texas-San Antonio last week which in reality is not a horrible loss as the Roadrunners are a very good team. The Bears can throw in the towel for the season or they can rally around each other and we can expect to see the latter tanks to head coach Matt Rhule as he is not going to lose this team three weeks into the season. Duke is 2-0 with an impressive win last week against Northwestern which was one of the biggest head-scratchers of the week. The first win came over North Carolina Central so we cannot get much from that. After a 4-8 season last year, we can expect a rebound season form the Blue Devils based on the simple theory of coming back to the mean but winning this game and winning this game by more than two touchdowns are two different things. Duke has been favored by two touchdowns over a Power Five Conference team only once since 1998 and that was against Kansas. Baylor is no Kansas. 10* (141) Baylor Bears |
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida -17 | Top | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 56 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our Friday Enforcer. Friday features three games with teams favored by at least two touchdowns and a pass would typically be in order in all of those but we are going to eat some chalk in one of those based on early season results and life in general. South Florida is favored to win the AAC after going 11-2 last season including a 7-1 conference record but there are higher aspirations in Tampa this season. The Bulls are looking at a Group of Five bowl game and crashing the College Football Playoff is not out of the question. While they have won both games this season, they have not looked good in doing so as they spotted San Jose St. a 16-0 lead before finally coming to life and looked hardly like a CFP party crasher in an un-inspirational win over Stony Brook by 14 points as a 35-point favorite. Now there will be plenty of inspiration after the game last week against Connecticut was canceled because of Hurricane Irma and this will be a huge game being played in Tampa for the team and its fans. Illinois defeated Western Kentucky last week and while it was considered an upset based on the line, clearly the Hilltoppers are not what they used to be. The win can be considered unimpressive considering that the Illini managed only 20 points while winning the yardage battle by just 56 yards. In its first game, Illinois defeated Ball St. by a field goal despite getting outgained by 159 total yards. This is one of many fraudulent undefeated teams in the nation and the Illini now hit the road for the first time and head to a place they would rather not be going to at this particular time. While this is a homecoming of sorts for Illinois coach Lovie Smith, the Bulls will prove to be way too much on this night. 10* (108) South Florida Bulls |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 37.5 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Being Week Two, we have our first bounce back situations in play this week but considering both Cincinnati and Houston are coming off embarrassing Week One efforts, the Thursday night game is not in play. The Bengals are in a great spot as hone teams coming off a shutout home loss have covered 70 percent of the time in the last 33 instances but there is no way we would recommend laying a number this big as the line has gone from 3.5 to -7 in some spots. We will be going a contrarian route instead. Scoring a combined seven points in their season openers, we are catching a total that is lower than anticipated and while the over is typically a public play, the under is the consensus here. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope tonight and rightfully so after awful efforts last Sunday. Andy Daulton has been shut out once in his career, back in 2014 against the Colts, and it was a disaster of a game for him with a 55.4 QB Rating. He bounced back with a solid game against the Ravens and the offense managed 27 points. Deshaun Watson took over for Tom Savage in the second half last week and he was average and he now gets the nod on a short week but we think he will be just fine as he showed flashes of what he can do during the preseason. These teams have played each of the last three regular seasons and all three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but all of those closing totals were 41 or higher. This adds to the contrarian angle as the under will be the recommendation from historians but we go against that as well. The Bengals have gone over the total in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game including a 10-4 over mark under Dalton. 10* Over (101) Houston Texans/(102) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 35 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our Thursday Star Attraction. Boise St. heads back home following a disappointing loss at Washington St. last Saturday and regrouping will be difficult. The Broncos returned a fumble 55 yards for a touchdown with 10:53 remaining in the game to take a 31-10 lead only to see the Cougars score three touchdowns including an interception return and the tying score set up by muffed punt. Boise St. eventually lost in triple overtime to even its record at 1-1 and the dominant Broncos days look to be numbered. There are questions all over the field as Boise St. has just nine returning starters from last season which is the fewest in the MWC and it is the No. 119 experienced team in the country (out of 130). New Mexico is coming off a loss against rival New Mexico St., the second straight loss in the series with the Aggies. While the Lobos followed up the loss last season with another loss, that game was against Rutgers where they had to travel to the east coast so this is a much different situation. New Mexico is coming off back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2006-2007 and are more than capable of making it three straight postseason appearances for the first time since 2002-2004. Certainly, there was no shortage of things the Lobos did wrong against the Aggies including four turnovers, 13 penalties, missed opportunities, lack of a pass rush and poor coverage in the secondary. The good news is a short week can have a positive effect. The home field advantage for Boise St. as it has gone 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games and that lone cover came by just a half-point. Meanwhile, the Lobos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss. 10* (103) New Mexico Lobos |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Monday Enforcer. Not many people will be high on the Chargers this season but we are not one of those. They will have one of the worst home field advantages because of their stadium but talent-wise, they are right up there. We made a future play on Los Angeles winning the AFC West which is a wide-open division. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so imagine if they can go a season without longterm major injuries. Denver is nothing special with a pedestrian offense including a weak offensive line and questions at quarterback. Last season, the Broncos ranked 27th total offense at 323.1 ypg, 21st in passing at 230.0 ypg, 27th in rushing at 92.8 ypg and 22nd in scoring with 20.8 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense is losing ground. DeMarcus Ware retired, Shane Ray will not be back until at least Week Eight, T.J. Ward was released and Shaq Barrett is still working his way back from an injured hip. These teams are much more equal now. The same two systems apply to the Chargers here. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (481) Los Angeles Chargers |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3 v. Vikings | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Monday Star Attraction. Both Minnesota and New Orleans missed the playoffs last season and both are projected to make runs at the postseason this year. The Vikings made the playoff two years ago thanks to a big run at the end of the season but last year was a different story as after a 5-0 start, Minnesota closed the season by winning just three of its last 11 games. There are issues on offense, especially with the offensive line, so getting the running game going will be difficult and Sam Bradford cannot win a game on his own. The Saints are an improved team which will be out to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14. The offense took a hit with the loss of Brandin Cooks but they will be just fine. One major improvement from this team is the defense as the secondary is better with the drafting of Marshon Lattimore and the linebackers will be improved by the drafting of Alex Anzalone, signing A.J. Klein in free agency and hiring Mike Nolan to coach the group. Two excellent situations fall onto the Saints side. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (479) New Orleans Saints |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 116 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our Week One NFL Game of the Week. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. We have systems in place that have been very profitable in the first week and the Jaguars/Texans game falls into one of those which we can call the regression perception system. Houston is again expected to make a run at the AFC South title thanks to its potent defense but the offense remains a huge concern going into the season coming off a 9-7 season. Jacksonville went 3-13 last season and is coming off a preseason that was widely regarded as horrible in all aspects. The Jaguars have a season win total of 6.5 games so things are expected to be better but the public is not buying it this week against Houston as the Texans are overvalued yet the public is making the Texans the second highest home consensus on the board. This is only part of the Jaguars value as the system in place backs it up. We play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2004 including 12-3 ATS (80 percent) since 2013. 10* (457) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans -1.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for out Week One Enforcer. The Raiders were one of the pleasant surprises last season as they won 12 games but were unable to make a playoff run after quarterback Derek Carr went down. It was a special season and many are picking the Raiders as a sleeper Super Bowl team but they are missing the fact that they won five games by a field goal or less and in overtime and eight games by one possession or less so things could have been a lot different. Oakland now has a healthy Carr back and the signing of Marshawn Lynch should help the running game but this is the classic example of a team that is ripe for regression and a lot of that is based on the number of close wins from last season. Tennessee is a trendy pick to win the AFC South following a 9-7 season from last year and just missing the playoffs. The Titans have missed the playoffs the last eight seasons but now have the team on both sides to make a move. This is a rematch from last season where Oakland came here in Week Three and won 17-10 but this is a different Tennessee team playing for revenge in what turned out to be a heated game. Marcus Mariota was in a funk, Rishard Matthews was still struggling to get comfortable in the offense, and what many people viewed as the team's top two options in the passing game in Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker did not play. Now, Eric Decker, a comfortable and reliable Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker, Taywan Taylor, and Corey Davis give Mariota multiple options. There is also a great situation the Titans fall into based on regression possibilities as we play against Week One road underdogs that won eight or more games last season and had a better record than their opponent. This situation is 35-10-3 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2004. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Week One Wiseguy Wipeout. Atlanta enters a new season following the worst implosion in Super Bowl history as it blew a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter and eventually lost in overtime. Despite the close margin in the end, the Falcons were outgained by the Patriots by 202 yards so they were fortunate to be in that position to begin with. Many will be calling Atlanta to come out with a chip on its shoulder but these situations are tough to bounce back from despite the fact six months have passed and now we have a situation we have not seen before based on the historic collapse. One thing we do know is that teams coming off a Super Bowl loss have not fared well out of the gate. Super Bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-17 ATS over the last 20 games. Now the Falcons are laying a touchdown on the road which is horrible situation to begin with. The Bears are coming off a 3-13 season and are projected for 5.5 wins this season so it looks to be another long season in Chicago. They posted their lowest win total in a non-strike year since the 1973 team went 3-11 and most losses since 1969 so not many will be backing this team. Offensively, Mike Glennon gets the call at quarterback and he a solid running game behind him led by Jordan Howard who finished second to Ezekiel Elliott with 1,313 yards rushing. For the Bears to keep things close here and throughout the season, the defense must play well and that is more than possible. The Bears believe they have the makings of a strong front seven if they stay healthy, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. Since 2001, home underdogs of seven or more points in Week One are 5-1 ATS. 10* (456) Chicago Bears |
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09-10-17 | Jets +9.5 v. Bills | Top | 12-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Week One Ultimate Underdog. This play goes along the same lines as the regression perception system but with a couple tweaks that makes it more of a public fade system. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. The Jets are projected to win 3.5 games based on the Vegas number and there have been voices saying a winless season is not out of the question. It is clearly a rebuilding season for New York and will be an underdog in every game this season but we must consider what kind of underdog it is going to be based on the spot. Buffalo is projected to win three more games than the Jets but that could be aggressive as the Bills seem to be playing for the future as well by trading some of the better players and loading up on draft picks. At this stage, they cannot be laying a number this big to anyone and even more so with their top two quarterbacks still in concussion protocol early in the week. The situation in play here is we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 35-8-2 (81.4 percent) since 2003 including 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2013. We see some crazy things in the opening week of the NFL season and a Jets win would be right up there. 10* (453) New York Jets |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -6 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 57 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Saturday Star Attraction. USC was a big letdown for us last week as it did not show up until late in the game to eventually pull away from Western Michigan. The Trojans were likely guilty of looking ahead to this big matchup with Stanford but as noted last week, prior to Stanford last year, the Trojans defeated Utah St. by 38 points and in 2015, they defeated Idaho by 50 points prior to facing the Cardinal. USC should have named the score last week but because of the closer than anticipated game, the Trojans are getting some excellent value in the number this week. Stanford was off last week after dominating Rice in Australia two weeks ago and that was not a game to get a good read on the Cardinal. They are expected to contend with Washington in the Pac 12 North and this is once again a very solid Stanford team despite the loss of Christian McCaffrey. The Cardinal have been a very strong road team but they have had their struggles against top level teams as they are 2-4 the last four years on the road against ranked teams and one of those took place right here. This has been a Stanford dominated series as the Cardinal have won seven of the last nine meetings and the two USC wins have come by just three points each so based on history, no one will be lining up behind the Trojans this week. That is more than fine as USC is coming back to its normal program following years of lowered scholarships and is finally geared up with the talent and depth to make a championship run. The Trojans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing with double-revenge as favorites and they get that revenge Saturday night. 10* (388) USC Trojans |
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09-09-17 | UNLV +7 v. Idaho | Top | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS for our NCAAF Game of the Week. UNLV is coming off the worst loss in college football history in line to the pointspread as it fell at home to Howard 43-40 as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels did not show up as they lost three fumbles and committed 13 penalties and those are two areas where the mental side of the game simply was not there and that changes this week. They have heard all week about how bad of a loss it was and because it was so early in the season, they know there is plenty of time to make up for it and we will see an all-out effort this week. Idaho is coming off a bowl win against Colorado St. last season which came out of nowhere as the Vandals were a combined 9-50 in their previous five years. They did return 14 starters and going back to last season, they have won six straight games following a rather unimpressive win over Sacramento St. last week. Idaho returns only five starters on each side of the ball this season and while the Vandals are playing with confidence, they catch UNLV at the wrong time. This is also a revenge game for UNLV which lost at home to Idaho last year in overtime despite winning the yardage battle 539-378. The Rebels were favored by 14.5 points in that game so we are seeing a three-touchdown swing in less than a year and that is too big of an adjustment for these two teams. National embarrassment has a funny way of providing a sudden burst of motivation and UNLV shows that off Saturday night. 10* (389) UNLV Runnin' Rebels |
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09-09-17 | Marshall v. NC State -24.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
This is a classic example of why looking at final scores can be meaningless when looking at future games and prices. NC State looks to bounce back from a loss against South Carolina as it fell at home by seven points in a game that it dominated. The Wolfpack outgained South Carolina 504-246 and had 17 more first downs but mistakes did them in. Not only did the Gamecocks return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, they also benefited from scoring drives of just 40 and 13 yards following NC State turnovers. The Wolfpack defense allowed just 22 yards over the final five drives on defense and they can absolutely dominate again this Saturday. Marshall won its season opener against Miami Ohio but it was the opposite of what happened with NC State. The Thundering Herd were outgained 429-267 but returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and also returned an interception for another score. The RedHawks controlled the time of possession and allowed just 15 first downs so it was a win by Marshall that was a fortunate as they come. After three straight double-digit win seasons, the Thundering Herd won just three games last year and lost all five road games by double digits. NC State has gone to three straight bowl games and with 17 returning starters, greater things are expected in 2017. That disappointing loss in the season opener is going to fuel the Wolfpack even more and with Furman on deck, they will be fully focused this week. Despite the loss last week, they have covered 11 of their last 14 non-conference games while Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (368) NC State Wolfpack |
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09-09-17 | TCU -3 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
While Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. are the head of the Big XII class, do not sleep on TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off a dreadful 6-7 season and we say dreadful because it was their first losing season since 2004 so a big bounce back season can be expected in 2017. Three of the last four times TCU has finished with eight or fewer wins, it has won 11, 11 and 12 games and this team is loaded now. The Horned Frogs bring back 17 starters overall with 10 of those coming on offense including quarterback Kenny Hill and all other playmakers. Their top three rushers and top nine receivers are all back. Arkansas is coming off another average season under head coach Bret Bielema who is now just 26-26 in four-plus seasons following a season opening win over Florida A&M last week. 12 of those 26 wins have come against non-Power Five teams so there is some underachieving going on here in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks bring back a strong offensive line and Austin Allen is a solid quarterback but after that, there is not much on this team. They come in with one of the weakest defensive lines in the SEC and will get shredded against this TCU offense that is ranked No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 in running backs, receivers and offensive line in the Big XII. There is revenge on the table for the horned Frogs as well as they are off a loss in overtime last season despite outgaining Arkansas by 169 total yards. TCU is 12-4 on the road over the last three seasons while the Razorbacks have failed to cover six straight games following a win. 10* (363) TCU Horned Frogs |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan v. Michigan State -7 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our Saturday Enforcer. Michigan St. overcame a slow start last week as it pulled away from Bowling Green in a game that it really dominated. The Spartans defense was the story as they did not allow a touchdown as the Falcons lone trot into the endzone came from a fumble return in the fourth quarter. They allowed only 212 total yards against a Falcons offense that averaged 407 ypg last season despite losing a ton from its record setting offense from 2015. Michigan St. is coming off its worst season ever under head coach Mark Dantonio and its first losing season since 2009. The three wins were the fewest since 1994 and this coming after a berth in the CFP in 2015 but all of this means we can buy low and that is the case here. We played against Western Michigan last week and give the Broncos credit as they went into USC and played the Trojans tough in a game that was not decided until late. USC was not showing its full arsenal early on with a game against Stanford on deck and that nearly came back to haunt the Trojans. Now Western Michigan has to regroup in a hurry and face another Power Five team which is a cause for concern. The Broncos were a special team last season as they opened 13-0 before losing to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl and take away the wins over Northwestern and Illinois and they are just 2-17 in their last 19 non-conference road games with those two wins both coming against Idaho, first in 2008 when the Vandals went 2-10 and then in 2014 when they went 1-10. 10* (310) Michigan St. Spartans |
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09-09-17 | Tulane +13.5 v. Navy | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 14 m | Show |
While a win over Grambling should not count for much, it was the first season opening win for Tulane since 2013 for a program that is heading in the right direction. The Green Wave finished with four wins last season which was more wins than in four of the previous five seasons so the first year under head coach Willie Fritz was a success. He led Georgia Southern to an 18-7 record in his two years there before coming to Tulane and he has amassed a 195-74-1 record in his head coaching career. He brought with him his option rushing attack and after a successful first year, things will only be better this time around. Taking over at quarterback this season is Kansas St. transfer Jonathan Banks who fits perfectly into this system and is coming off a great debut. Navy won last Friday in a game that had no rhythm due to storms and delays which hurt Florida Atlantic to get anything going. The Midshipmen now head back to Annapolis for their home opener and are again being asked to lay double-digits only this time against a team that matches up better which we saw last season. Tulane had the lead over Navy late in the fourth quarter but could not hold on as Navy scored the game winning touchdown with 2:57 left and the Green Wave could not pull off the upset. That was one of three losses for Tulane that came by a single possession so their season could have been even better. This is a program on the rise that has not had much go its way with only one bowl appearance since 2002 and with a game at Oklahoma on deck, getting out of here with a great effort is of utmost importance. 10* (347) Tulane Green Wave |
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09-08-17 | Ohio v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 35 h 57 m | Show |
While we will not go as far to say that Purdue is bound for a big season, we will say that the Boilermakers are heading in the right direction. Purdue has not been relevant since the days of Joe Tiller as it has been to just two bowl games since he retired in 2008. The hiring of Jeff Brohm looks to be a perfect fit here and one that will get the Boilermakers back on the map. They are coming off a solid effort last week against Louisville where they lost by a touchdown but were the victims of four turnovers and while they were outgained by 180 total yards, they have only two fewer first downs. Purdue now takes a step down in competition in its home opener which happens to come in front of a National TV audience. Ohio meanwhile has not had a losing season since 2008 and has been to a bowl game in seven of the eight years since then. The Bobcats are coming off a laugher in their season opener against Hampton as they rolled 59-0 but we can take little from that game based on the opposition. Ohio is expected to contend in the MAC once again this season but there is a big difference between the MAC and the Big Ten even if it is the lower echelon of the Big Ten. The Bobcats are just 2-10 against Power Five teams since 2007 and they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Meanwhile, Purdue has won 13 consecutive home openers and it has covered nine of its last 13 games following a straight up loss. 10* (302) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
The Patriots closed last season by winning their last 10 games, covering the last eight games, including an improbable Super Bowl comeback over Atlanta where they trailed 28-3 before winning in overtime. New England is the favorite to win the Super Bowl once again this season at +385 as of four days before their season opener. Everyone has likely heard of the Super Bowl hangover but it does not pertain to the first week of the next season. Since the NFL began its current format for the Kickoff Opener with the winners of the previous Super Bowl playing host to the first game of the season, defending champions are 11-1 in those games (not counting Baltimore in 2013 since its game was moved to the road because of an Orioles scheduling conflict). The defending home team went 8-3-1 ATS. Going back further prior to the Thursday Kickoff Opener, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 15-1 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years including cover wins the last three seasons. Kansas is coming off another successful season where it went 12-4, its second straight double-digit win campaign but it stumbled in the playoffs yet again, losing to the Steelers at home. This is a big number the Chiefs are getting here and you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find Kansas City getting a touchdown or more. The Chiefs won their last six road games last season but they are heading to an environment which will be tough to compete in and the Patriots have dominated in these situations. They are 13-3-3 ATS at home the last two seasons while going 18-7-2 against conference opponents over that same stretch. 10* (452) New England Patriots |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 27 m | Show |
UCLA came into last season as a top 15 teams but lost its season opener in overtime, lost its star quarterback halfway through the season and lost six of its last seven games to post its first losing season since 2011. The loss of quarterback Josh Rosen was a big reason for the second half collapse by the Bruins as those were definitely intertwined but partly to fault is head coach Jim mora who failed to make adjustments on offense and finds himself squarely on the hot seat entering 2017. UCLA will be back to contend in the Pac 12 North as it brings nine starters back on offense including Rosen who is back to full health. Half of their losses last season came by one possession which gives the Bruins value heading into this season and the line dictates that. That opening loss from last season came against Texas A&M despite outgaining the Aggies so there is revenge on the table. Another coach in the hot seat is Kevin Sumlin who has his teams highly ranked at some point in the season only to lose crucial games and implode late to fall out of the rankings altogether. The Aggies have finished 8-5 each of the last three seasons which would be good for some programs but there has been too much inconsistency where opportunities have been there only to be missed. Texas A&M brings back only 12 starters this season and the quarterback situation is a mess as it saw two transfers and it is still undecided if senior Jake Hubenak, redshirt freshman Nick Starkel or true freshman Kellen Mond will be making their first ever road start. Part of this is Sumlin not giving away info but the other part is that there is no clear-cut choice. 10* (212) UCLA Bruins |
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09-02-17 | Western Michigan v. USC -26 | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 48 m | Show |
This is the one week that we can take advantage of betting big favorites, something we typically do not do later in the season when lines become a lot sharper. This is one of those games where the home team can name the score and we expect that to happen. USC comes into the season as a legit National Championship contender for the first time in a while after a great end to last season. The Trojans were blown out in their season opener against Alabama last year and then opened 0-2 in the Pac 12 before going on to win their final nine games of the season including a Rose Bowl win against Penn St. they bring back a slew of talent including Heisman hopeful quarterback Sam Darnold who narrowly lost his first game as a starter against Utah but then won the next nine starts, only two of those victories coming by single-digits. It may be worrisome that USC has Stanford on deck but that is a non-issue. Prior to Stanford last year, the Trojans defeated Utah St. by 38 points and in 2015, they defeated Idaho by 50 points prior to facing the Cardinal. Western Michigan is coming off a season for the ages as the Broncos went 12-0 during the regular season, defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship but fell to Wisconsin by eight points in the Cotton Bowl. It was a season that cannot be duplicated especially knowing that head coach P.J. Fleck is gone and that the Broncos have to replace seven starters on offense including their quarterback as well as their top three receivers. This is a big number to be laying but it is this big for a reason and should be even bigger but the memory of what Western Michigan did last season is keeping it manageable. 10* (182) USC Trojans |
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09-02-17 | Temple v. Notre Dame -18 | Top | 16-49 | Win | 100 | 75 h 42 m | Show |
Notre Dame is another big-name program that looks to bounce back following a disappointing 4-8 season. The Irish are favored by a significant amount in their opener but with them expected to be one of them most improved teams in the nation, this line would be a lot higher a month from now as the struggles from last season are playing a part in the number. Those eight losses are being taken into consideration but what is not being considered is the fact that of those eight losses, seven came by one possession including four by a field goal or less. While it was not an experienced team last season, Notre Dame returns 15 starters and in the mix are new coordinators. Defensively, the Irish were okay and now they have a new coordinator in Mike Elko who turned Wake Forest around. Chip Long takes over the offense that has to replace the quarterback but brings back the top rusher, receiver and four players along the huge offensive line. Temple was a bookies nightmare last year as after a loss against Army in the season opener, the Owls ran off 12 consecutive spread victories before losing to Wake Forest in the Military Bowl. Temple lost 12 starters from last season, the majority on a stout defense that has brought back 8, 10 and 6 starters the last three seasons but brings back just four in 2017. Offensively, the receiving corps returns intact but the Owls have to break in a new quarterback and also lost their top running back. Most important, head coach Matt Rhule left for Baylor and Temple also has to replace both coordinators as well and their replacements are not nearly as strong as those for Notre Dame. This is a big game for Notre Dame to get the season going in the right direction in front of the home crowd before welcoming Georgia next week. 10* (188) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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09-02-17 | Kent State +39.5 v. Clemson | Top | 3-56 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 23 m | Show |
The reigning National Champions kick off on Saturday in the early slate of games and while the game looks easy on paper, the situation is not a good one to open. Clemson plays its first game with the title trophy so every opponent is going to be giving its all in trying to pull off a victory. The Tigers are again going to be a solid team as they come in ranked No. 5 in the AP Preseason poll but the start of the season could be one that takes time for this team to come together. They have to replace quarterback Deshaun Watson, leading rusher Wayne Gallman and their top two receivers so the offense will be a work in progress. This is the perfect opponent to try and iron out some of the wrinkles and play within its means and not show too much. This is because the Tigers host Auburn next week, a team they narrowly escaped last season with a six-point win. That was one of seven wins by a touchdown or less and that is something to go against the following season. Kent St. has won just eight games the last three years but all signs point to improvement this season. The Golden Flashes bring back 13 starters from a team that lost four games by four points or less and held its own against Penn St. in the season opener. The offense struggled last season but will be better in 2017 with more experience and it does not have to do much here to cover this number. Clemson has covered just once in five games when favored by five or more touchdowns under head coach Dabo Swinney including a six-point win against Troy as a 35-point chalk which came right after that Auburn game. 10* (159) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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09-02-17 | Maryland v. Texas -18.5 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 56 m | Show |
As mentioned in a different analysis, playing big favorites in the first week of the season can be very advantageous as we can get some soft numbers that could feasibly be much higher later in the season should things pan out the way as we are predicting. Texas has been an average program since 2009 when it lost to Alabama in the BSC Championship as it has gone 46-42 over the last seven seasons and has not reached double-digit win over this span. The Longhorns started declining with Mack Brown and the Charlie Strong experiment lasted just three seasons. In comes Tom Herman who looks to be an ideal fit to turn Texas back into a national power and while it likely may not happen this year, we can expect a strong start from Texas. Herman has 17 returning starters and the Longhorns bring back the fifth most experienced team in the country so most everyone is back in what will be a very hungry team to forget the debacle from the end of last season. Texas opens at home for the first two weeks before heading to USC to face the Trojans so these first two weeks are important for momentum and confidence. Maryland was a pleasant surprise last season as it won six games after winning just three games in 2015 but we are not so sure the improvement was justified. Only one of the Terrapins six regular season losses was close and they defeated some bad teams along the way to become bowl eligible. Quarterback Tyrell Pigrome won the starting job over blue chip recruit Kasim Hill and North Carolina transfer Caleb Henderson which was a surprise so the offense could struggle early on. Texas needs it supporters to believe and that is not just done with a win but a blowout win. 10* (186) Texas Longhorns |
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09-01-17 | Navy v. Florida Atlantic +10 | Top | 42-19 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 17 m | Show |
Navy did not finish the season well last year as it lost its last three games, including a loss against Army which snapped a 14-game winning streak against the Black Knights. The Midshipmen come into this season with a few question marks at some key positions namely offensive line and running back. They lost four of their top five rushers and they must replace three of their five already undersized offensive linemen. The Navy flexbone attack is ground-based and requires defenders to play disciplined, assignment football in a way that will not be as necessary against spread offenses. Luckily for Florida Atlantic, the Owls have extra time to prepare. Does that make a difference? You bet it does. Under head coach Ken Niumatalolo is 5-4 in season openers with four of those wins coming against Towson, Delaware, Colgate and Fordham, all from the FCS so FBS teams are 2-1 in those games. There is a lot of buzz at Florida Atlantic with the hiring of Lane Kiffin as the new head coach and while he will help immensely with recruiting, the bigger hire could be offensive coordinator Kendal Briles who is in place to turn around an inconsistent offense. There is still a question of who is going to start at quarterback but running backs Devin Singletary, Buddy Howell and Kerrith White were six yards short of rushing for two thousand yards combined last season, along with 26 touchdowns. Defensively, the line has been great during the spring and the linebackers that were hurt in the spring and early fall are back and will contribute in stopping the Navy ground attack. Overall, the Owls are the most experienced team in the country with 96.2 percent of their yards and 88 percent of their lettermen back for 2017. 10* (146) Florida Atlantic Owls |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana +21 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 11 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Indiana and the coaching staff is not downplaying it as they are calling it the biggest opening game in the history of Indiana football. That means little when it comes down to the actual playing of the game but the Hoosiers will possess a significant home field advantage. They are coming off back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1990-91and they are projected to make it three in a row. This is a very talented team with 15 starters returning and they can give Ohio St. some troubles. Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow has stepped up as a leader during the offseason and he spent a lot of time studying how he can improve his decision-making to cut down on turnovers. He will be throwing to a wide receiver group that includes Simmie Cobbs, Nick Westbrook and Donavan Hale along with tight end Ian Thomas. This part of the offense is important as they will be going against a very inexperienced secondary. Defensively, Indiana has nine starters back from a team that improved from allowing 37.6 ppg in 2015 to 27.2 ppg in 2016 so they should be even better. Former head coach Kevin Wilson is the new offensive coordinator so the Hoosiers will have an edge in knowing the tendencies that will be coming their way even though that can go both ways. Limiting turnovers is stating the obvious but if Indiana wants to sniff an upset, the turnover battle must be won. The Hoosiers have played Ohio St. very tough over the last few years and most of those were inferior teams than the 2017 edition. While a close game can be expected, we take advantage of a very overpriced line that is based on the Ohio St. name and its CFP hopes for the upcoming season. 10* (134) Indiana Hoosiers |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 222 h 45 m | Show |
It was a roller coaster season for Hawaii last season but it ended on a good note to carry some momentum into the 2017 season. You will rarely see a .500 season that feels like more of a success than the Warriors as it was the combination of resilience and an increasingly competent offense, and there is no reason to assume that either will disappear before 2017 begins. Hawaii won its final three games including an upset over Middle Tennessee in the Hawaii Bowl and comes in ready to light it up. Quarterback Dru Brown and running back Diocemy Saint Juste return to form one of the MWCs scarier backfields while nine of the top 11 receiving targets and three starting offensive linemen also return. The defense was a problem last season as Hawaii allowed 5.3 ypc and a 48 percent conversion rate on third down. Those are two of the stats it needs to improve upon and that is very likely to happen for two reasons as the Warriors will be better on defense than in 2016, and their schedule does not include trips to Michigan and Arizona (111 points allowed in just those two games). Massachusetts is coming off a 2-10 season and while it should be better, it will not be much better. The offensive line is a big weakness with just two starters back trying to improve upon the No. 124 ranked rushing offense in the country and that spells trouble. In 2015 when they won three games, the Minutemen were outrushed by 51 ypg but that ballooned to over 95 ypg last season so they need help on both sides. They do not have the passing game to keep up with Hawaii so any early lead for the Warriors could be too much for Massachusetts to catch up to. The travel is always a concern with Hawaii but that is a non-issue with this being the first game of the season. 10* (293) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons OVER 58 | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 270 h 6 m | Show |
Over the last 12 editions of the Super Bowl, only one has surpassed the total that we are dealing with this year as Super Bowl XLVII between Baltimore and San Francisco saw 65 points scored. Of the first 50 Super Bowls, only eight have had 60 total points scored so history shows that we should be in for a lower scoring game than what the over/under is telling us. While history can tell us a lot, it cannot always predict the future and this number is big for a reason despite the Patriots brining in the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. As a comparison, the over/under for the NFC Championship Game between the Falcons and Packers closed at 59.5. both New England and Green Bay have very potent offenses so those totals were set based on the defenses and clearly the linesmakers do not trust the Patriots top ranked unit. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. No one has been able to stop the Falcons for the most part and with the Atlanta defense not very good to begin with, the Patriots will be able to move the ball as well. As long as we can avoid settling for redzone field goals, this could turn into a very high scoring Super Bowl. 10* Over (101) New England Patriots/(102) Atlanta Falcons |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 269 h 24 m | Show |
This is the seventh time that the top ranked scoring offense has faced off against the top ranked scoring defense in the Super Bowl. In the previous six matchups, the top ranked defense has come away the winner but the situation is different this season based on what the defense has faced. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. Atlanta will have success on offense as the balance is there to be effective and keep New England off balance. The difference should come down to the Falcons defense trying and stop the Patriots offense and while that likely will not happen, it will be slowed down enough. The rankings of the Atlanta defense are not very good but those rankings are skewed to a degree. Because of the firepower of the offense, opposing teams have had to try and play catch-up more often than not which leads to garbage points and garbage yards. To prove this, the Falcons have led at the half in 13 of their 18 games including the last six. Getting off to another quick start will again put them in great position to win their first ever Super Bowl. 10* (102) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 8 m | Show |
The Patriots are riding an eight-game winning streak and are 12-1 since the return of quarterback Tom Brady. Is this the product of a very elite New England team or the product of a very soft schedule? While it consists of both, it is more of the latter. Great teams win and the Patriots are doing just that but there is more too it since there has been little resistance from opposing offense. New England is No.1 in the NFL in points allowed and since Brady returned, here is the list of quarterbacks he has faced. Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore, Bryce Petty, Trevor Simien, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Landry Jones, Andy Dalton and Cody Kessler. The quarterback with the highest rating of the group was Russell Wilson and that resulted in a loss. There is a reason the defense has looked good because the numbers are skewed. Now they get to face Ben Roethlisberger who missed the first meeting back in Week Seven and the Steelers still won the yardage battle in that game. Not to be outdone, Pittsburgh has won nine straight games and has been outgained only once over that stretch which was the regular season finale when the big three on offense rested. While the Steelers won by just two points last week, they dominated Kansas City, outgaining the Chiefs by 162 total yards. The defense is unspectacular but still very solid and can certainly slow down the New England offense. While New England is more accustomed to this spot, the Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Conference Championships games while the Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (313) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
The Packers are the popular public play to make it to the Super Bowl as after Aaron Rodgers said they were going to run the table, they have done just that. They have won their last eight games, putting up 30 or more points in their last six, while covering seven of those games and taking three of those outright. Rodgers is playing at a high level right now as he has had a quarterback rating surpassing 100 in seven of his last nine games. Turn on any sports talk show and he is all you hear about in this game. Well, Matt Ryan may have something to say about this. He led the NFL in quarterback rating and he has surpassed a 100 rating in eight of his last 10 games. Many will point to the fact that Green Bay is once again getting more than a field goal for a second straight week but this week, the challenge will be more difficult. Last week, Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead but could not pull away as the defense allowed the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott to get right back in the game and nearly had to go to overtime. The Packers secondary is a mess and they will be challenge even more here against the top ranked offense in the NFL. Last week, we played against Atlanta thinking the Seahawks defense could slow the Falcons down and that was not the case as Ryan tore them apart. Playing the final game ever in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons will have an even greater home field advantage which will help the defense which we saw last week. They will not shut Green Bay down but have the potential to slow them down enough to be able to allow their own offense to pull away. 10* (312) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 58 h 40 m | Show |
The Chiefs backed into a first round bye thanks to the Raiders losing Derek Carr for the season and them losing their final game of the regular season so it is very fortunately than Kansas City is sitting in this position. Despite a 12-4 record, the Chiefs were outgained on average by 23.6 ypg which is the fifth worst differential in the NFL. They were only better than the 49ers, Browns, Rams and Dolphins and we saw what happened to the latter last week in Pittsburgh. Hitting the road and winning will be a challenge for the Steelers but they are the better team and the only thing that can hurt them here is turnovers. Pittsburgh has won eight straight games and while the opposition has not been great, winning is winning and they have done it in a variety of ways. Running the ball has been successful as LeVeon Bell has rushed for 1,002 yards over his last seven games while Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown is the explosive part of the passing game. On the other side, Since Week Nine, the Steelers defense is averaging 3.5 sacks per game with consistent pressure from traditional pass rushers or timely blitzes. The Steelers have a fully stocked roster for the first time in the last three playoff appearances which is huge for this team that has so much talent all over the place. Going back, the Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. 10* (305) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 48 m | Show |
It is pretty rare to see teams favored by this many points in the playoffs and even during the Patriots 16-0 season back in 2007, they were not favored by this much. In the past 40 years, only three other teams have been favored by 16 points or more in a playoff game and while this line has snuck below that as of Wednesday, the point has been made. New England is good enough to win any game by more than this amount but this is not the ideal team to do it against. The Patriots have rolled to seven straight wins and finished 14-2 during the regular season but they have played no one since early in the season. Since their Week Nine bye week, they have faced two playoff teams, one resulting in a loss against Seattle and the other resulting in a win over Miami without Ryan Tannehill. Actually both wins over playoff teams since Week Seven back come against backup quarterbacks, the other being Landry Jones of the Steelers. The Texans had little issue with Oakland last week and despite winning against a backup, the defense is good enough to hold its own here. The running game will be big as well to keep the ball away from the Patriots offense. Lamar Miller sat the final two games of the regular season, but he ran the ball a season-high 31 times against the Raiders and looks healthy. Houston lost the first meeting 27-0 and that was without Tom Brady in the lineup but the Texans still won the yardage battle but gave the ball away three times, something they cannot afford to do this week. 10* (303) Houston Texans |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-36 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
The favorites dominated last week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs as they went a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS with all four games being decided by double-digits which made for some bad football viewing. We should see this come back into line this week and we will start out on Saturday by grabbing the first underdog. Seattle rolled over Detroit last weekend and has now outgained six straight opponents and when comparing these two teams, Seattle is arguably the better team even though the line indicated the Falcons are superior. The Seahawks offense has been all over the place this season but the good news is that they got the running game going last week and now face an even worse defense as the Falcons are ranked No. 27 in total defensive efficiency. On the flip side, Atlanta has the most potent offense in the NFL but squares off against one of the strongest defenses as the Seahawks are ranked No 4 in defensive efficiency and are ranked No. 6 in fewest yards allowed per drive at 28.58. The Seahawks have been fantastic against the run all season long, limiting opponents to a league-low 3.37 ypc. In the first meeting, the Seahawks were without strong safety Kam Chancellor and defensive lineman Frank Clark. The Seahawks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. 10* (301) Seattle Seahawks |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 32 m | Show |
Even though Clemson may not have looked as good during the regular season as it did last season, the Tigers still had their lapses then namely against Syracuse and South Carolina late in the season. The game against Ohio St. solidified what they can do when focused and this team is capable of not only covering but winning outright against Alabama. The Tide have typically struggled against mobile quarterbacks and we saw it last season in the championship as Deshawn Watson was responsible for 478 yards of offense himself. Clemson got a late score for the cover but it was typically within the number the whole game with the difference being Alabama returning a kickoff for a touchdown. Overall, Alabama had four touchdowns of 50 yards or more and the offense is not as dynamic this season as last. The Tide cannot stretch the ball down field and while they possess a fantastic running game, Clemson has a very strong rushing defense with numbers similar to last season. Take a Derrick Henry 50-yard touchdown run away and he averaged just 3.1 ypc in his other 35 rushes. The best part for the Tigers is that they are not intimidated. They were not last year and are not again this year. They have more competitive depth on both sides with more experience that simply translates into a better football team. We are getting a similar number to last year with what is an improved team so we will run with it again this season. 10* (151) Clemson Tigers |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a great season for the Dolphins which finished 10-6 but they took a hit with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Despite that, the overall record is skewed as Miami closed the season by getting outgained in its last three games as well as seven of its last nine. The only two games the Dolphins won the yardage battle were against Los Angeles and Arizona by just 13 and 14 yards respectively. Matt Moore is a capable backup for sure but he is in a tough spot making a playoff start in what looks to be not ideal weather. The Steelers rested their main starters in Week 17 against the Browns and that was a good move. While they were outgained, that meant nothing. Prior to that, Pittsburgh had outgained nine straight opponents and the last team to outgain the Steelers happened to be the Dolphins. That was the game Ben Roethlisberger was injured and not nearly 100 percent even though he finished it out. Revenge does come into play but that is not a huge motivator come playoff time considering what is at stake. More importantly, this is a big game for Pittsburgh which surprisingly has not won a home playoff game since 2011 so motivation will be huge here based on that alone. The Steelers went 3-0 ATS this season as favorites of eight or more points while the Dolphins defeated only one playoff team this season, the aforementioned Steelers game. Additionally, the Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Seattle has not looked great lately as it is just 3-3 in its last six games but there was not much of a motivation level toward the end of the season. The Seahawks lost their only home game of the season in Week 16 against Arizona but they already had the division locked up and were no longer in contention for a first round bye so it is tough to get up for a game like that. The only time Seattle was outgained however was at Tampa Bay and it has won the yardage battle in its last five games. Overall, Seattle had the third highest yardage differential in the NFL at +38.5 ypg and third amongst playoff teams. The Seahawks finished third in scoring defense and fifth in total defense and will be a big factor here against a Detroit offense that was efficient but not very potent. The Lions definitely has a surprisingly good season with low expectations coming in but it was a season that could have easily gone south. Detroit has been involved in some close games this season as 13 of 16 games have finished within one possession win or lose. That is going to sway some bettors to back the Lions but that is not a wise move here. Detroit was outgained on average by 16 ypg which was ninth worst in the league and second worst amongst playoff teams. The weather does not look great for Saturday night and the Lions have played outdoors exactly twice since Oct. 2, and their coldest kickoff temp was 55 degrees in the Week 15 loss to the Giants. The Seattle playoff experience will play huge dividends here as well. 10* (104) Seattle Seahawks |
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01-07-17 | Raiders +4 v. Texans | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 37 m | Show |
People are unfairly putting a fork in the Raiders because of the loss of quarterback Derek Carr for the season and while that loss is huge, they are far from done especially in this matchup. Connor Cook got thrown into the fire last Sunday after backup Matt McGloin got hurt and Cook did an admiral job as he competed 14 of 20 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown along with a pick. This came with practice with the first team and going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Granted, Houston is in that category as well but a week of practice could do wonders for the rookie. Taking a look at the other side, Houston returns with quarterback Brock Osweiler who finished with the second worst passer rating in the NFL. The Texans offense finished ahead of only the Rams, Browns and Jets in points scored at 17.4 ppg and even that is skewed because of defensive and special team points. Houston generated more than two offensive touchdowns a total of zero times in 16 games and its 1.4 offensive touchdown per game average is dead last in the league. The Oakland defense is nothing special but Houston did not exactly play many top level defenses along the way. In a game that could go either way, we will grab the underdog that looks to be overpriced on top of it. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders |
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01-02-17 | Auburn v. Oklahoma -2.5 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Auburn had a surprisingly good season as after a 1-2 start, the Tigers ran off six straight wins before being dominated in their last two games against FBS opponents. The defense carried the team all season as it allowed 30 points only once which came in the season finale against Alabama but even that was a skewed score as the Tigers allowed 501 total yards. The offense is the real issue as they gained just 184 total yards and that came after picking up only 164 yards against Georgia. Oklahoma presents a real problem for auburn as the Sooners balanced offense averaged over 237 yards on the ground and close to 320 yards through the air. Oklahoma won its last nine games following a 1-2 start and most of those win were blowouts while getting outgained only once during that stretch. The Sooners closed the season by covering their last five games against teams with a winning record and the run continues on Monday. 10* (282) Oklahoma Sooners |
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01-02-17 | Iowa v. Florida -3 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
Iowa had a signature win over Michigan this season to start a season ending three-game winning streak but like last season, it was another overrated season for the Hawkeyes. Half of their wins came against teams with three wins or fewer, another against Miami Ohio out of the MAC while losing to North Dakota St. from the FCS. The Hawkeyes came to the Rose Bowl last season and got destroyed by Stanford and a similar result is in the cards today as they play another high profile bowl game they should not be involved in. Florida got thumped by Alabama in the SEC Championship which comes as no surprise but it was a successful season for the Gators that finished with five wins over teams also participating in bowl games. Florida outgained opponents by over 46 ypg while Iowa was actually outgained by an average of close to 20 ypg. 10* (276) Florida Gators |
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01-01-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7 | Top | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Week 17 in the NFL is all about information as teams and players have little or a lot to play for. Washington needs to win to make the playoffs and just hope that Green Bay and Detroit do not tie tonight. The Redskins have all of the motivation here as the Giants have absolutely nothing to play for. They are in the playoffs already and cannot move out of the No. 5 seed that they are currently in. Head coach Bob McAdoo said that he is playing the starters today and repeatedly stated that but that does not mean the starters are going to finish the game. After watching Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota go down last week, he will not be taking a chance with Eli Manning or any other big time starters. Washington had lost three of four games prior to last week where it thumped Chicago so it comes in with some momentum and this is guaranteed to be the final home game of the season should the Redskins get into the postseason. Even at full strength, the Giants are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (308) Washington Redskins |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson +3 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
We will take advantage of this line where as if Clemson was favored by three points, there would not be much of an overreaction. The Tigers were in a similar situation a year ago where they were getting a field goal against Oklahoma and went out and won the game by 20 points while outgaining the Sooners 530-378. The difference maker was quarterback Deshawn Watson and he will be once again here despite many thinking he is not as good. Watson's 2016 passing numbers (67.6% completions, 37 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) compare favorably to his 2015 stats (67.8% completions, 35 touchdowns, 13 picks) and while his rushing numbers are down, his attempts are way down as he has not been needed as much. While the Ohio St. defense is a menace and is one of the best around, recall what Watson did to the Alabama defense last season when he erupted for 478 total yards and four touchdowns. On the other side, J.T. Barrett had a solid season as well but not nearly as strong as he finished the regular season as the No. 43 ranked quarterback in efficiency. Clemson has a massive defensive front that can cause problems as they impose themselves instead of reacting as the action unfolds and that is the way to stop the Buckeyes offense. Over its last seven games, Ohio St. won two of those 62-3 but struggled in all of the other five games, losing once and winning the other four by just a possession and against much lesser opposition. 10* (274) Clemson Tigers |
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12-31-16 | Kentucky +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 18-33 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
The one thing that benefits teams playing Georgia Tech in bowl games is the extra preparation time and that will be the case for Kentucky that has an additional edge as well. The Yellow Jackets are a tough team to defend when playing with the normal week of prep but since head Coach Paul Johnson took over in 2008, his Yellow Jackets are just 2-5 in his seven bowl games and the offense has underperformed to the tune of averaging over 1.0 yppl less than what they average during the regular season. That is no coincidence. Additionally, head coach Mark Stoops know the Georgia Tech offense pretty well from his days at Florida St. Kentucky is playing in its first bowl game since 2010 as it has been one-win shy in three of the past five years. This is the best Kentucky team we have seen in a decade and closing the season on a 7-3 run is impressive. One of those losses came at Alabama while another came at Tennessee despite the Wildcats winning the yardage battle. The newfound offense will present problems for the Yellow Jackets that had issues all season against offenses that could move the ball with consistency. 10* (269) Kentucky Wildcats |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
While some may think that the motivation level will be low for Michigan following that disappointing and controversial loss to Ohio St., motivation should not be an issue with the Wolverines. Motivation will certainly not be an issue for the Seminoles which closed the season with a 6-1 record, the lone loss coming by just three points to Clemson, and based on recent bowl games, they will be pretty fired up here in their home state. Florida St. has lost its last two bowl games by 24 and 39 points following a run of six straight bowl victories. The recent surge can be thanks to a resurgent defense. Thanks to a startling midseason turnaround, Florida St. has climbed to No. 29 in the total defense rankings (up from 94th after five games) and is allowing an average of 357.2 ypg and 5.45 yppl. Michigan is tough on both sides of the ball but it played a pretty weak schedule overall as it was ranked No. 31 in the nation compared to a No. 13 ranked schedule for the Seminoles. This is the most points Florida St. has seen all season and this is the first time Michigan has been favored by less than 11.5 points all year which shows how weak the schedule actually has been. 10* (265) Florida St. Seminoles |
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12-30-16 | South Alabama +14 v. Air Force | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
We will continue to back the history trend of backing big underdogs Double-digit underdogs have been a very solid play in minor bowl games for years and this season so far has been no exception as these teams are 4-1 ATS and we will be backing another one on Friday. South Alabama is in its second straight bowl and after losing in the Camellia Bowl last year to Bowling Green, the Jaguars will be out to win their first ever bowl game since going the BCS full time in 2012. We are definitely getting value here as they are getting double-digits because they have failed to cover their last five games and the public is riding that. South Alabama was a double-digit underdog three times this season, going 2-1 ATS in those games and both of those were outright victories against Mississippi St. and San Diego St. Air Force had a solid 9-3 regular season and comes in riding a five-game winning streak which is also playing into this number. This includes an upset victory in its season finale against Boise St. but despite the solid straight up numbers, the Falcons are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and this includes loss in all five games where they were favored by double-digits. Three of those losses were outright defeats. 10* (261) South Alabama Jaguars |
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12-30-16 | TCU v. Georgia +3 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
While it was considered a disappointing first season under head coach Kirby Smart for Georgia, the 7-5 record does not give the Bulldogs enough credit. They had just one bad loss which was against Mississippi while three other losses came by just five points combined and they won the yardage battle in all three of those games. Georgia is coming off a disappointing loss against rival Georgia Tech in its regular season finale but it has covered four of its last five games following a straight up loss. TCU was all over the place this season as it finished 6-6 with only one of those wins coming against a bowl team. The Horned Frogs lost five games against bowl teams with the last three coming by 24, 25 and 24 points so they clearly had their struggles against the better teams. TCU went 1-7 ATS this season as a favorite including 0-4 ATS as a single digit favorite so going from a one-point dog to a favorite here is not ideal. Additionally, the Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. This is a big game for Georgia to carry some positive momentum into next season. 10* (258) Georgia Bulldogs |
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State +3 v. Colorado | Top | 38-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Both Oklahoma St. and Colorado are coming off their worst efforts of the season as the Cowboys lost to Oklahoma for the Big XII Championship while the Buffaloes lost against Washington in the Pac 12 Championship game. It was a great season for both teams and motivation will play a big role in this one. Oklahoma St. had a similar season a year ago where it finished 10-3 and following a loss to Oklahoma by 35 points to end the regular season, it got hammered by Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl. The players from that team do not want a repeat of that and should come out with great energy. Colorado is playing in its first bowl game since 2007 so just getting here has been a huge accomplishment and not being able to win the Pac 12 Championship was a huge letdown. While the Buffaloes bring in a great defense, the offense will have trouble keeping up as the Cowboys are averaging 492.3 ypg and 38.7 ppg and this is exactly the type of offense that Colorado has struggled against this season. Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau continues to be bothered by a bad ankle and the Cowboys pressuring him will keep the passing offense in check and make them a pretty one-dimensional team. 10* (255) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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12-29-16 | South Florida v. South Carolina +10.5 | Top | 46-39 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
As mentioned Tuesday, double-digit underdogs have been a very solid play in minor bowl games for years and this season so far has been no exception as these teams are 4-1 ATS and we will be backing another one on Thursday. South Florida finished 7-1 in the AAC East but missed out on the AAC Championship due to a loss at Temple and that was the main tiebreaker. Still, it was a very solid season for the Bulls which finished 10-2 overall, the only other loss coming against Florida St. the issue is that they do not have many quality wins as a victory over Navy and Memphis were the only really good one. South Carolina has an unexpectedly good season at 6-6 after finishing 3-9 last season. The Gamecocks are also short on quality victories but they played some very competitive games against quality teams such as Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia and Florida. While the offense was suspect at times, they should do well here against a very bad South Florida defense while their own defense carried them along. The Gamecocks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (252) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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12-28-16 | West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -2.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
It is pretty hard to believe but Miami has not won a bowl game since 2006, a span of six straight losses and the hurricanes are motivated to end that streak. The fact the Hurricanes are favored against No. 14 West Virginia may be a surprise to some but it sets up the perfect contrarian opportunity here. As good of a season as West Virginia has had, the defense has been awful. The Mountaineers rank near the bottom in the country in pass defense as they are 101st out of 128 teams in the FBS in pass defense, allowing 255.7 ypg. Miami quarterback Brad Kayaa and wide receivers Ahmmon Richards, Stacy Coley and tight end David Njoku can take advantage it. The rushing defense is nothing special either as it is ranked No. 66, allowing 175.5 ypg on 4.4 ypc. On the other side, the Miami defense has proven among one of the best in the nation as it is 13th in scoring defense, 11th in yards allowed per play, sixth in tackles for loss and 23rd in total defense. The Hurricanes ended their regular season with plenty of momentum, winning each of their last four games by double-digits, covering all of those games as well and that momentum will play a huge role this afternoon to finally crack the bowl game losing streak. 10* (246) Miami Hurricanes |
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12-27-16 | Baylor v. Boise State -7 | Top | 31-12 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Motivation plays a big role during bowl season and we should see that come into play here. Baylor opened the season a perfect 6-0 but it has been all downhill since then. The season turned with a close loss to Texas on Oct. 29. The Bears were blown out the next week by TCU and then quarterback Seth Russell sustained a season-ending broken ankle against Oklahoma, and Baylor closed the season with six straight losses. Interim head coach Jim Grobe will be coaching his final game here and despite conflicting reports, it is safe to say he has lost his team. The Bears will also be without running back Shock Linwood who is sitting out in preparation for the upcoming draft. Boise St. lost its final game of the season but that should provide plenty of motivation to end the season on a high note. The Broncos lost only two games this season and those came by a combined nine points. Boise St. has a potent passing attack behind quarterback Brett Rypien and one of the best running backs in the country in Jeremy McNichols, who rushed for 1,663 yards and 23 touchdowns. On the other side, the Broncos possess one of the most physical defenses in the country and Baylor will have a tough time moving the ball without one of their top running backs and a freshman at quarterback. 10* (242) Boise St. Broncos |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Temple | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Double-digit underdogs have been a very solid play in minor bowl games for years and this season so far has been no exception as these teams are 3-1 ATS and we will be backing another one on Tuesday. Temple won the AAC Championship and comes in riding a seven-game winning streak as well as a more impressive 12-game ATS winning streak so it comes as no surprise that the Owls are heavy favorites this afternoon. They will be without former head coach Matt Rhule as well as several assistants as they have moved on to Baylor and that is a pretty big concern heading into the Military Bowl. Wake Forest had its own postseason distractions with the information leakage scandal but if anything, that should be a big motivator heading into its bowl game. This is the first bowl game for the Demon Deacons since 2011 and they will be looking for their first bowl win since 2008. While their offense struggled at times, Wake Forest runs a tricky form of an option-offense, which Temple has been typically notorious for not defending well. The Demon Deacons have a trio of players that have run for over 500 yards this season, including quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile their defense is what got them here and that will again be the difference here. 10* (237) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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12-26-16 | Maryland -1.5 v. Boston College | Top | 30-36 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Maryland opened the season 4-0 before hitting a stretch of going 1-6, making its season finale against Rutgers more important than it should have been. The Terrapins took care of the Scarlet Knights without an issue and are bowling again after missing out last season while that losing stretch was not ideal, it came against some very still competition including three ranked No. 6 or better in the final ranking and all six losses came against teams going to bowl games. While it can be argued, here is another game against a bowl team, the opposition is suspect at best. The Eagles backed in to a bowl games with a pair of wins to close the season but this is one of the worst teams remaining. Boston College outgained four of its opponents by 216 or more yards but those games were against 2-10 Massachusetts, 2-10 Buffalo, 3-9 Connecticut and Wagner from the FCS. The Eagles did defeat and outgain a solid NC State team but clinched a postseason berth by defeating Wake Forest in their final game despite getting outgained by 120 total yards. The offense scored 17 points or less in half of their games and while Maryland is no defensive juggernaut, facing a team ranked second to last in the nation in total offense will not present a problem. 10* (231) Maryland Terrapins |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 15 m | Show |
We gave out a small play against the Chiefs this past Sunday and we are going all in fading Kansas City once again this week. They fell to Tennessee on a last second field goal and are now a game behind the Raiders in the AFC West while sitting in the No. 5 spot in the AFC Playoffs, only one game ahead of Miami. Kansas City is easily the worse winning team in the league as we mentioned in the analysis from last week that they are getting outgained on average and by a significant amount. After getting outgained by Tennessee this past Sunday, the Chiefs are getting outgained by an average of 43.7 ypg. That is fourth worst in the league which is ahead of only the Rams, Browns and 49ers which are a combined 5-37. One of those games where they were outgained was their fortunate win in Denver and they were outgained there by 191 total yards but had a kickoff return for a touchdown while benefitting from 15 Denver turnovers. This is the last chance for Denver as it has to win out and get some help to make the playoffs. Following its second straight loss at home against the Patriots, there was a locker room fight between the offense and defense and while it is being played down, that is the type of fire you want to hear about. The Broncos are better than their 8-6 record shows as they are No. 11 in yardage differential and they actually have the same point differential as the division leading Raiders. While I do not think Kansas City is any better than Denver, this line is telling us the Chiefs are in fact the better team on a neutral field so getting a line this spread higher than the key number of three is huge in a game that has much on the line. Nine of the last 12 meetings have been decided by just one possession but in reality, we are more likely to see a Denver blowout rather than a Kansas City blowout. 10* (129) Denver Broncos |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State -6.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 35-52 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This line came out very late due to the questionable status of Middle Tennessee quarterback Brent Stockstill but it has been confirmed that he will be playing. His presence is definitely important and the passing offense should flourish here with Hawaii being unable to show much resistance. The Warriors allowed over 455 ypg during the regular season and they were mostly gashed by the running game, something the Blue Raiders also excel at on offense as they averaged close to 200 ypg on 4.4 ypc. The issue with Middle Tennessee this season was with its defense but there will not be much to worry about coming from Hawaii. The Warriors scored 21 points or less five times this season and in the eight times they surpassed that number, only one came against another bowl team and that took double overtime to do so. That victory over Air Force was the only victory against a fellow bowler and at 6-7, it can be argued the Warriors should not even be here. This is a home game for Hawaii the senior laden Blue Raiders have all intentions of closing their careers with a victory. 10* (227) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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12-24-16 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans are still alive for playoff spots but it is the Buccaneers that have the much better odds at this point. If Tampa Bay wins, it will move to 9-6 but still will need Green Bay, Detroit and Washington to lose and we do not see that happening this week. Tampa had its five-game winning streak snapped last week in Dallas as it blew a fourth quarter lead but still got the cover which was its sixth straight spread win. It is more straight forward for the Saints as they have to win out and hope to get a lot of help along the way. The good news is that they know if they lose either of their last two games, they have no shot at the postseason so there is no reason to even worry about playoff scenarios. They are coming off a huge win in Arizona last Sunday to stay alive and they will be out to avenge a loss in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. So should Green Bay or Washington win earlier in the day which will know the Saints out, there is still plenty to play for and it was noted that there will be no scoreboard watching prior to their own game. 10* (108) New Orleans Saints |
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12-24-16 | Redskins -3 v. Bears | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
This is a must win game for the Redskins who laid an egg this past Monday night against Carolina which put a big hit into their playoff hopes. They have dropped three of their last four games after a 6-3-1 start but all is not lost. Washington can clinch a playoff berth with a win here and next week against Giants while having Tampa Bay lose once or Atlanta lose twice and Green Bay lose once or Detroit lose twice. They could actually still sneak in with a loss here but the chances are extremely slim. There has been no quit with Chicago as it has played extremely hard over the last five weeks but this is not a good spot. The Bears are coming off a pair of brutal divisional losses against the Lions and Packers by three points each and that sets them up for a big letdown here especially with another division rival on deck next week. Chicago has covered five straight games so we are catching value here because of that as well as the Redskins mini slump. Washington has covered eight of their last 10 road games and will keep that going on Saturday. 10* (103) Washington Redskins |
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12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -4 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
The Bills put forth a solid effort last week against the lowly Browns following two straight losses and saving the job of Rex Ryan for at least one more week. Buffalo is still alive in the AFC playoff picture but at 7-7, the chances of making the postseason for the first time in over two decades is slim. Still, the Bills know they need to win and they will no doubt go all out against their division rivals. The Dolphins rolled over the Jets last Saturday which was their second straight win following an ugly loss in Baltimore prior to that. Miami is 8-1 over its last nine games which is one of the best runs in the NFL but it is skewed considerably. The Dolphins have been outgained in five of their last seven games and are still getting outgained on average this season by 41.9 ypg. That is ahead of only Cleveland, San Francisco and Los Angeles which is a pretty bad club to be involved with. Miami is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 December games which is pretty logical while the Bills re 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Buffalo Bills |
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12-23-16 | Ohio v. Troy -4 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 10 m | Show |
Troy is bowling for the first time since 2010 when it defeated this same Ohio team in the New Orleans Bowl. That was also the last time the Trojans had a winning season but they are guaranteed of that this season as they are now going for double-digit wins for the first time since 1999. They have had only one read bad game this season, a 35-3 loss against Arkansas St. as their other two losses were by a combined 10 points and one of those came at Clemson. For a program that went into a tailspin after dominating the Sun Belt Conference for years, this has been a statement season and this is a statement game heading into the offseason. Ohio is 8-5 and is coming off a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship against Western Michigan. The Bobcats were able to keep things close in their losses but this is a very bad matchup for them. Ohio runs the ball well but the Trojans are solid in that defensive category as they are allowing just 3.4 ypc. The Bobcats are a team that cannot get into a shootout and expect to keep up while playing catch up is something they have not been able to do all season. Troy is led by Brandon Silvers at quarterback who has thrown for 2,951 yards and 22 touchdowns with just nine picks. Ohio gives up over 257 ypg and 7.5 ypa while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7 percent of their passes. Look for Troy to take this one comfortably. 10* (226) Troy Trojans |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
The Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a victory over Philadelphia on Thursday and while the Eagles have been eliminated from playoff contention, they will go all out and not have New York clinch on their watch. Philadelphia has dropped five straight games and seven of their last eight after a 4-2 start but some of those losses have been very close as six of its overall losses have been by just one possession. Following a win in Chicago in its first road game, Philadelphia has dropped seven straight on the highway but it is a very respectable 4-2 at home and in one of those losses, it outgained the Redskins. The Giants are on a complete opposite run as they have won two straight and eight of their last nine games but similar to the Eagles, the games have been extremely close. Six of the last eight wins have been by a possession and New York has not been good on the road. It won its season opener in Dallas but the other two wins have come against 0-14 Cleveland and 4-10 Los Angeles. Even worse, the Giants have been outgained in all six of their road games and yes that includes the Browns and Rams. New York won the first meeting at home against Philadelphia by five points but was outgained by 141 yards in the process and in 14 games overall, the Giants have been outgained q14 times and on average they are getting outgained by 27 ypg. Because of records, the Giants were forced to be the favorite here but can definitely be considered a false favorite in this spot. 10* (102) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State v. Idaho +15 | Top | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Only one team, Penn St., has been hotter at the betting window that Idaho and Colorado St. as each of these teams has covered seven straight games. One streak will be broken and we fell it will be that of the heavy favorite as the Rams have gone from less than a two-touchdown favorite to more than a two-touchdown favorite. Colorado St. has been solid as a favorite this season as it is a perfect 4-0 ATS when laying a touchdown or more but only two of those were against other bowl teams and in both instances, the Rams were not laying anything close to this number. Idaho was one of the biggest surprises in all of college football as it has eight wins which is one fewer than it previous five seasons combined and it will be making its first bowl appearance since 2009. Which happened to come right here when this bowl was called the Humanitarian Bowl. The Vandals have won four straight games, two against fellow bowlers, and have really turned things around as after getting outgained in their first five games against FBS opponents, they have won the yardage battle by an average of 78.3 ypg. While most bowl teams would prefer going somewhere with nicer weather, Idaho is basically playing a home game while Colorado St. got the shaft. This line is severally overpriced and we will take advantage of it. 10* (220) Idaho Vandals |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 79.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The scoreboard will be working on overload tonight in Boca Raton as two of the top offense square off. This is the highest total of all bowl games and for good reason as Western Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense while Memphis is ranked No. 17 and No. 32 in those categories respectively. The defenses do not come close to those rankings so stopping the opposing offenses will be a challenge. Typically, we would look at the contrarian play here but digging deeper into the numbers show that the first over of the bowl season will hit. Western Kentucky has played only four games against teams ranked inside the top 50 in total offense and it was lit up by allowing an average of 45 ppg. Memphis meanwhile has faced five teams ranked No 50 or better in total offense and it allowed and even worse 48.4 ppg. These defenses are clearly skewed by the soft schedules they have faced so we see no reason that the offenses will be moving up and down the field all night. This is the highest total that each team has seen all season but the Hilltoppers and Tigers are a combined 5-0 to the over when the total was 70 or higher. Going back, the over is 12-3-1 in the Hilltoppers last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 4-0 in the Tigers last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (215) Memphis Tigers/(216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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12-19-16 | Panthers +7 v. Redskins | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Redskins opened as a -4.5-point favorite and the line has steadily risen to a touchdown in most places and that is a big jump for two teams that are more even than the records may show. Washington is coming off a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2 and after a four-game winning streak earlier in the season, the Redskins are just 3-3-1 over their last seven games. They have played a tough schedule and have been favored by more than 3.5 points only once this season and that was against Cleveland. Of their seven wins, only two have come by more than seven points. Obviously, it has been a disappointing season for the Panthers who will be going from playing in the Super Bowl to missing the playoffs. Only nine times has the Super Bowl runner-up finished below .500, something the Panthers can avoid only by winning their final three games. Carolina has only put up two bad games this season and those were against 9-4-1 Seattle and 9-5 Atlanta as it has outgained six of its other 11 opponents. Five of eight losses have come by three points or less while in the other defeat against Minnesota, the Panthers outgained the Vikings by 95 total yards. The pressure is squarely on Washington here and that is often a bad ingredient in games of such magnitude. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (331) Carolina Panthers |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan v. Tulsa OVER 69.5 | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Day one of bowl season had five games on Saturday with all five of those staying under the total, four of which stayed under by a touchdown or more. Now we get a matchup where we have strength on offense going up against the weakness on defense and this is the case on both sides which can translate to a lot of points. Tulsa brings in a very potent rushing attack as it averages 262.4 ypg on 5.1 ypc and it has outrushed all but three opponents this season. On the other side, Central Michigan has trouble stopping the run as it is allowing 161.3 ypg on 4.5 ypc so the Golden Hurricane should gash the Chippewas defense. The Central Michigan strength on offense is with its passing game behind quarterback Cooper Rush and while he tends to force throws at times, he has the ability to make big plays. Tulsa allows nearly 250 ypg through the air and has only seven interceptions so the Chippewas can stay in this game with their passing game should they trail by any significant amount. this Is the highest total that Central Michigan has seen but for good reason based on the matchup and for Tulsa, it has surpassed this number in seven of its last 10 games with two of those missing the over by just one point. 10* Over (213) Central Michigan Chippewas/(214) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. The NFL flex schedule moved this game to the primetime slot that before the season would never have come close to playing on Sunday night. The Cowboys are now 11-2 on the season following their second loss to the Giants by a combined four points but are overvalued here once again. Dallas has outgained only one opponent in its last five games and while it is 4-1 in those games, there could have been more losses but was fortunate. While the Cowboys are the surprise of the league, Tampa Bay is not far behind. The Buccaneers are 8-5 and tied with Atlanta for first place in the AFC South. They have won five straight games as the defense has risen to the occasion by allowing just 12.8 ppg during the winning streak. This is certainly a big test but Tampa Bay passed the test already with wins over Atlanta, Kansas City and Seattle so it will not be intimidated here. The Buccaneers are 5-1 on the road and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 95-47 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -125 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots picked up a solid win last Monday night to make it four straight wins and are now just one win away from clinching another AFC East title. They can also clinch with a Miami loss on Saturday so this game means a lot more for the Broncos. New England is the only remaining undefeated team on the road and the public is riding that as the Patriots are again a huge consensus this week as a road chalk. Denver lost in Tennessee last week despite outgaining the Titans by 95 yards and the Broncos have actually outgained their opponents in three of their last four losses so they have been better than their 8-5 record shows. A great angle is in play here with the better defense at home and getting points on top of it. New England is clearly playing at a high level but it has struggled here with three straight losses in Denver, the last two coming when it was favored. The Patriots are part of a negative situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 265 or more passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 150 and 185 passing ypg, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Denver Broncos |
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12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC Game of the Year. This game got bumped from the Sunday night time slot and moved to 1:00 ET which helps Cincinnati because of its struggles in the limelight. After going winless in four straight games, the Bengals have won two straight and while making the playoffs will take a minor miracle, they are still in the hunt. The good news is that they face the Steelers and Ravens at home so hope is still there. Pittsburgh roughed up the Bills last week, namely Le'Veon Bell who torched Buffalo for 236 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He will find the going a little tougher this week but because of four straight victories, the Steelers are now favored by more on the road than they were last week in Buffalo. This is the first time this season that Cincinnati is getting points at home and the feeling it is unjustified in a divisional game of this magnitude. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. This situation is 150-95 ATS (61.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record and will step up to the occasion on Sunday once again. 10* (330) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-18-16 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | Top | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. After destroying the Jets on Monday night, the Colts put up a stinker last week at home against Houston and they now sit a game out of first place in the AFC South. We played against them last week because the line was way off but we are backing them this week based on what looks like not only another bad line, but a must win spot. Indianapolis travels to Oakland next week which makes this one pretty big. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but their bye week came and since then, they have gone just 2-6 as the offense has looked pretty putrid. While they scored 25 points in Jacksonville last week, they had to settle for four field goals which is not a good sign at all. The Minnesota defense has done its job for the most part but the offense has not been able to take advantage. The defense will be without safety Harrison Smith and while that was not a factor last week against Blake Bortles, it will be a factor this week against Andrew Luck. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
Miami picked up a big win last week against Arizona but at the same time, suffered a big blow with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Luckily, he is not out for the rest of the season but his loss will be felt as Matt Moore takes over in his absence. Despite an 8-5 record, the Dolphins are getting outgained by over 40 ypg and that is the fifth worst differential in the league. You have to give the Jets credit last week for bouncing back from that awful effort against the Colts and also coming back from a 14-0 deficit last week against the 49ers to win in overtime. The last time they were featured at home in a national TV game was that game against Indianapolis and you can guarantee their effort will be better as to not get embarrassed again. overall, New York has struggled at home but it has been competitive for the most part and now are getting the second most points at home on the season. The Jets fall into a great situation where we play against favorites coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road divisional games. 10* (304) New York Jets |
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12-17-16 | Houston -3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
Typically, we tend to shy away from team in bowl games that are playing with an interim coach after the head coach moved on to a different team. The situation in Houston is different however. Tom Herman left to become the head coach of Texas, and he is taking a few assistants with him to Austin. Houston initially named defensive coordinator Todd Orlando to be the interim coach for the bowl game, but recently announced it had promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to the position of head coach and he will be making his debut Saturday. This is a pretty big deal for motivational purposes. San Diego St. faltered toward the end of the season as it lost its final two regular season games before narrowly defeating Wyoming in the MWC Championship. The Aztecs were outgained in all three of those games and they did not fare well when playing good teams as they went 2-3 against fellow bowl teams while going 8-0 against non-bowl and FCS teams. San Diego St. is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as it is ranked No. 7 in rushing offense but it will struggle here facing the No. 3 ranked rushing defense and the stop units are more important at this stage. On the other side, Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. was the only player to average over 300 yards passing per game and over 45 rushing yards per game, and the Cougars' offense finished the regular season fourth nationally in total offense (349.6 ypg). The Cougars are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game while the Aztecs have failed to cover four straight games against winning teams. 10* (203) Houston Cougars |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 17 m | Show |
Bowl season kicks off on Saturday in Albuquerque as UTSA squares off against New Mexico. The Roadrunners are making their first ever bowl appearance and while that seem like a motivational advantage, it really is not as teams in these situations, along with those making their first appearance in a very long time, are just happy to be here and are enjoying the festivities that go along with it. They are coming off a win over Charlotte to secure a bowl bid but this is a below average team that was outgained in eight of their 12 games. New Mexico is making its second straight appearance here and will be out to make up for the loss last season against Arizona despite outgaining the Wildcats. The Lobos have not won a bowl game since 2007 which happens to be the last time they have won this many games as they come in 8-4 including a 6-1 record over its last seven games. Few teams employ the option as effectively as New Mexico, which led the FBS in rushing yards this season with 360.9 ypg. What's more, the Lobos broke off a staggering 6.81 ypc and they fall into the ever-effective rushing situation where one team dominates all three rushing averages (more ypc on offense, less ypc on defense and a + ypc overall). The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win while New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games coming off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog. Look for the Lobos to pull away comfortably on their home field. 10* (202) New Mexico Lobos |
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12-12-16 | Ravens +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Ravens have won four out of their last five game to improve to 7-5 overall but they sit a half-game behind Pittsburgh, which has won four straight games, in the AFC North. That will set up a big showdown Christmas Day when they meet but Baltimore needs to worry about the present first. The Ravens lead the NFL in total defense and scoring defense and that is a recipe for success late in the season when making a playoff charge. Another key factor is the offensive line. The Ravens are expected to go with the same starting lineup on the offensive line for the fourth straight game which comes after Baltimore had seven different lineups the previous seven games. New England is the frontrunner in the AFC East as it has a 2.5-game lead on Miami and is on pace for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. This is no easy out however as the Patriots are pretty banged up on offense. In addition to the absence of Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett is banged up and Danny Amendola is out. Baltimore has beaten Tom Brady twice in New England in the postseason and could be 4-0 against him if Lee Evans had caught that pass in the end zone in 2011 and the Ravens had held on to a 14-point lead in 2014. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (133) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-11-16 | Falcons v. Rams +6 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 13 m | Show |
The Rams opened the season 3-1 and were looking like a possible playoff contender but the quarterback position has hurt them ever since. Jared Goff has taken over for Case Keenum and the results have been inconsistent to say the least. He is back home for his second start in Los Angeles and his first one here against Miami was not a bad one as he managed the game well as the defense let it slip away. Still, this is a very strong defense that is No. 10 overall and will give the Falcons some issues in their passing game. Atlanta lost a tough one last week as it allowed a defensive touchdown as well as a special teams score not mention a game losing two-point conversion return. Atlanta is now tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the AFC South so this is certainly a big game for the Falcons. They have more incentive but the linesmakers have taken that into consideration as they are laying the most points they have put down on the highway all season. Plain and simple, it is too many against a very strong defense. With the loss last week, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after a loss by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (130) Los Angeles Rams |
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12-11-16 | Cardinals v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 70 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for out NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. This is a great setup for the Dolphins as they look to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Riding a six-game winning streak going into Week 13, Miami went to Baltimore last Sunday and got hammered 38-6 while getting outgained by 219 total yards. That dropped the Dolphins to 7-5 and took them out of a Wild Card spot but a win here coupled with a Baltimore loss in New England on Monday gets them right back in. Miami ends the season with three divisional games which makes this a big one. Arizona heads to the east coast after snapping a two-game skid with a win over Washington last week. It was not very pretty for the Cardinals which are not playing well at all with wins over the Redskins and Buccaneers being the only ones of value. The three other wins have come against two teams a combined 4-20. They are still in the playoff race as well but they have struggled on the road with the lone win coming in San Francisco and they outgained the 49ers by just two total yards. The results last week are giving us value this week as the typical adjustments have to made after one week and not looking at the overall picture. 10* (116) Miami Dolphins |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The winless Browns are running out of chances to avoid a 0-16 season and this could be the final chance to snag a victory. The remaining three games for Cleveland are at Buffalo, at home against San Diego and at Pittsburgh so this is the easiest of its schedule to end the season. Additionally, this is a very good spot for the Browns as they are coming off their bye week after 12 straight games and they will be getting RGIII back at quarterback which has been the shakiest area for them on offense after he went out. Cincinnati kept its very slim playoff hopes alive with a big win over the Eagles last week which was its first win since Week Seven when it defeated the Browns. Andy Dalton finally put a complete game together but this team cannot be trusted on the road where the Bengals are 1-5 with the only win coming against the Jets by a single point. Here, we play on Underdogs or pickems that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winless on the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. Look for the Browns to collect their first victory of the season. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns |
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12-11-16 | Texans +6 v. Colts | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 49 m | Show |
We won with the Colts on Monday night and while it was a play on Indianapolis, it was just as much of a play against the Jets which failed to show up right from the start. After that 41-10 win, the Colts moved into a tie with Houston and Tennessee for first place in the AFC South making this a big game for both sides. This line is not telling us that this is a divisional game between teams with the same record as Indianapolis is laying way too big of a number here. Houston has dropped three straight games following its eight-point loss in Green Bay last week. All three losses came by just one possession however so things have been close and everything points to an even closer one here. The offense has been bad over this stretch as the Texans have managed just 46 points over the three games but they will be taking on a very poor defense this week that is ranked No. 28 overall and No. 28 in passing. That is welcome news for Brock Osweiler who has struggled in his first season with the Texans. Houston has covered six straight road division games while the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (109) Houston Texans |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 48 m | Show |
The Bills wasted a golden opportunity last week when they blew a 24-9 lead against the Raiders and lost to fall back to 6-6 on the season. They are currently the No. 10 seed in the AFC and are two games out of the final Wild Card spot so they need to basically win out and hope for a lot help. The schedule is very manageable however as this is the start of three straight home games and they close the season in New York against the Jets. Buffalo has been outgained only four times since starting the season 0-2 and of those four losses, three could have resulted in wins. The Steelers have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak but they are tough team to trust on the road. They are 3-3 but one of those wins came at winless Cleveland while another came at Indianapolis which was without Andrew Luck. They finish the season with three straight divisional games and the AFC West is still within grasp as they are tied with Baltimore for first place. This is definitely a big game for Pittsburgh as well but it should not be favored on the road here as these teams are more equal than their names suggest. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more straight wins while Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after two or more losses against the spread. 10* (114) Buffalo Bills |
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12-10-16 | Army +6 v. Navy | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
We won with Army in this game last season and despite straight up losses in the last five, the Cadets have covered four of those and we have been on them in each of those. Now Army enters the 2016 rivalry with one of its best teams in recent memory as it looks to break its 14-game losing streak in this series. The Black Knights opened the season 3-0 but then lost three of their next four games. Two of those losses could have been wins and in all three defeats, they outgained their opponents. Army suffered a pair of blowout losses to open November but was able to bounce back with a blowout win over Morgan St. and while the opponent was far from a good team, it was a needed boost of confidence before heading into this one. Additionally, they have had 20 days to prepare for Navy. The Midshipmen are coming off a disappointing loss against Temple in the AAC Championship which cost them a spot in the Cotton Bowl. Instead they have been relegated to the Armed Forces Bowl so they could come into this one a little down. For the first time since 1941, Navy has only one week to prepare for Army which is a pretty big disadvantage. Makings matters worse, the Midshipmen will be without two of their top three rushers including quarterback Will Worth who leads the team with 1,196 yards and 25 touchdowns. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more ypc, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Army Black Knights |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 52 h 53 m | Show |
Kansas City is finding ways to win but with them being dominated so much lately, it will catch up. The Chiefs are 7-1 over their last eight games but they have been outgained in six of those and most have not even been close. They have been outyarded in each of the last five games and by an average of 118.4 ypg. They were fortunate to come away with wins in each of the last two games with last week being the real fortunate one as they scored two touchdowns on defense and special teams while also returning a conversion attempt for two points. Oakland fell behind Buffalo 24-9 before scoring the final 29 points to pull out the two-touchdown win. That was the sixth straight win for the Raiders and in those, they were outgained only once. In their last 10 games, they have lost only once and that was against Kansas City at home and while road revenge is not a big factor, there will be some added motivation. Additionally, a win here could go a long way in locking up the AFC West as they would have a two-game lead with three to play. It is hard to ignore the fact Oakland is 5-0 on the road and playing with some of the best confidence in the league. While Kansas City is 4-1 at home, it has covered just once and that was against the lowly Jets. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders |