This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. Ohio is coming off a win over Long Island last week following a Week 0 loss against San Diego St. and it was not a pretty victory. The Bobcats won 27-10 which did not come close to covering the 34-point spread and while the defense did its job, the offense was putrid as they gained only 303 total yards. They relied on the running game as they threw the ball only 15 times and that was due to a lack of confidence. Ohio lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke after he played only two series against San Diego St. in its opener and he was absent last week which puts the Bobcats in a tough situation here. Backups C.J. Harris and Parker Navaro cannot win games with their arms as there is little trust. Rourke could possibly go here but they might not chance it with a massive revenge game next week against Iowa St. and they do not want to further risk him heading into MAC season where they are expected to make a championship run. Florida Atlantic was two points away from bowl eligibility last season as it lost its final game to Western Kentucky 32-31 to finish 5-7 and good things are expected this season with a trip to the AAC Championship in play. The Owls have 18 starters back and are coming off a 42-20 win over Monmouth as they let up the gas in the third quarter in a very balanced offensive attack where they rushed for 213 yards and threw for 280 yards behind a great performance from Nebraska transfer Casey Thompson. Lay it early if possible before the official Rourke decision. 10* (368) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. UAB welcomed in the Trent Dilfer era with a 35-6 win over North Carolina A&T and it was a game where the Blazers knew what was coming with the Aggies running the ball 41 times while throwing it only eight times and with a talent discrepancy, they were no match. Things will be a lot tougher this week as they not only face a strong FBS opponent but one that will bring a new element. The jury is still out after facing a team from the FCS as UAB has a roster full of questions as it brings back only seven starters overall from last season, three on offense and four on defense. Jacob Zeno was spectacular at quarterback last week going 38-41 for 291 yards and three touchdowns but he will have a much bigger test to overcome here as his inexperienced line that came into the season with only 11 total starts could be overwhelmed. It is a short line as this is a public team with the known name of Dilfer and past success but this is a rebuilding year. Georgia Southern blanked the Citadel 34-0 to win its opener and it also goes up in class but it is not a huge leap to a weak FBS team. Ironically, the Eagles also faced a team that threw it only eight times so the secondary will get a challenge it has not seen yet but should be more than up to the task. Offensively, the Eagles moved from the option to a more spread offense last season and it worked and now David Brin is at quarterback and he looked good and should once again behind one of the best lines in the conference. 10* (370) Georgia Southern Eagles

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. UTSA killed us last week as it lost in Houston 17-14 in a game it should have won but mistakes cost the roadrunners. They outgained the Cougars 417-334 and that advantage would normally cover any 2.5-point spread handicapping turnovers is nearly impossible and it came from an unexpected source. Quarterback Frank Harris is in his seventh season and holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense but he cost them the game as he tossed three interceptions on his first three drives of the second half. The first came at the Houston 22-yard line and the last led to the eventual winning touchdown for the Cougars. It is safe to say, he is ready to make amends for that especially in their home opener where local philanthropist Harvey E. Najim purchased 7,100 tickets to make this place full. Texas St., not Colorado, is coming off the biggest upset last week as it went to Baylor and defeated the Bears by 11 points as a 27-point underdog. The Bobcats were outgained by 83 yards as the defense allowed 524 yards but forced four field goal attempts as Baylor was not clutch and also committed two turnovers. That victory coupled with the UTSA loss is keeping this line down even though it has been bet up slightly since opening. More shocking is the fact that Texas St. has been picked to finish dead last in the SBC as it has only 11 starters back and is working with a ton of transfers. now it is time for UTSA to roll. 10* (342) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Overreaction or underrated? Maybe it is a little bit of both for Colorado as it stunned TCU last week as a three-touchdown underdog and we are seeing upwards of a 12-point line swing as the Buffaloes were +8.5 just two weeks ago at MGM. Colorado won with 87 new players on the roster and while it was a big upset, a lot of the blame has to go on the Horned Frogs who had to replace a ton from their playoff team of last season. With the victory, the Buffaloes have entered the AP Top 25 which is a joke to begin with and this is a typical overreaction. The line will be big behind Colorado at the ticket window and we are already seeing 80 percent of the money on the Buffaloes and this is before the majority of the public has put their money in. Nebraska is coming off a loss at Minnesota in a game it could have and should have won. The Huskers had a 295-251 yardage advantage including 181-55 on the ground but were -3 in turnovers. Two of those turnovers came in the last five minutes of the game right around midfield when Nebraska had a 10-3 lead and those led to the final 10 points for the Gophers. It was a very disappointing loss for the Huskers and head coach Matt Rhule in his debut but they will come off the mat and be ready while Colorado is still celebrating. The scheduling is big as well as the Huskers will have had a couple extra days to get ready while Colorado is playing on a normal schedule coming off an up and down game in extremely hot and humid weather. 10* (317) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. This is an intriguing opening night matchup with the reining Super Bowl Champions against one of the top sleeper teams coming into the season. Kansas City won its final five regular season games to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit against the Eagles to claim its second Super Bowl in four years and there is little reason to believe they will not be in the running again. The number is fairly big in this matchup but giving head coach Andy Reid this much time to prepare, the Chiefs will be ready. Counting just the regular season and excluding the COVID year, Kansas City is 28-5 at home and will no doubt want to make a statement. The Lions will want to make their own statement as well as they are hyped up for a big season and are the favorites to win the NFC North at +140 and fourth in the NFC at +1,100 to win the conference. Detroit closed strong last season with wins in eight of its last 10 games but only three of those wins were against playoff teams and two of those were at home. Early money has come in on the Lions dropping this line from 7 to 6.5 in some places and that is under the key number we want if attainable. We have the Super Bowl hangover in play as past champions have struggled to make the playoffs the following season in a lot of cases but it does not start with the opening game. We do not expect the Chiefs to miss the playoffs anyway and they fall into the great spot of hosting this game. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 15-3 although one of those losses was last season with the Rams. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB Monday signature Enforcer. After finishing no worse than No. 3 in the final CFP rankings for six straight years, the Tigers finished No. 19 and No. 7 the last two seasons and they are ready to get back to the top. Clemson is ranked No. 9 in the preseason AP Poll and is the slight favorite to win the ACC but nothing is guaranteed and it is being overpriced because of what should be the norm. The Tigers bring back a ton this season after going 11-3 and they are finally settled at the quarterback spot with Cade Klubnik taking over for the inconsistent D.J. Uiagalelei who transferred out to Oregon St. But it will not be a seamless transition as two of the top receivers are gone but he is behind a very strong offensive line. Clemson regressed defensively but should get back to its dominance but this is not an easy test. Duke put together a 9-4 season last year and some will think of it as a fluke because it was considered a soft schedule but teams cannot dictate who they play, it just comes to them and the Blue Devils took care of business. The four losses were all by one possession and by just 16 points combined so it could have been even better. Duke did benefit from a +16 turnover margin and that tends to trend back toward the mean the following season but there is more than enough to make up for that. The Blue Devils have 18 starters back including 10 on offense led by quarterback Riley Leonard who grades out as the second best quarterback in the ACC heading into the season. The defense improved by 17.7 ppg and nearly 170 ypg from 2021 and that can be attributed to the defensive mind of head coach Mike Elko. 10* (236) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Sunday Star Attraction. Head coach Brian Kelly took over an LSU program with no expectations and led them to a 10-4 season. This team is loaded with experience and talent and this first game will be a true indication of where it has come. Quarterback Jayden Daniels led the way last season as he threw for over 2,900 yards and 17 touchdowns while rushing for 885 yards and 11 touchdowns. One issue that has to be addressed is pass protection as LSU was the second worst in the SEC in sacks allowed but four starters are back and it will be better. The remaining top four rushers are all back, although John Emery is out here, and the Tigers added Logan Diggs from Notre Dame where he ran for 822 yards. The Tigers have improved defensively each of the last two years and are stacked for improvement again. Florida St. is getting a lot of sleeper CFP love and rightfully so. The Seminoles closed out last season with six straight wins, are right behind Clemson at +155 to win the ACC and have entered this season ranked No. 8 in the preseason AP Poll. Quarterback Jordan Travis was Second Team ACC last season and is exceptional but he lost a lot of production from his receiving corps and while the transfer portal will help, that could take some time and the tigers will be keying in on Johnny Wilson. The offensive line is solid but this will be the toughest defense it sees all season. The Seminoles improved dramatically on defense last season but had a tough time against the run and that will be a problem here. LSU was 10-1 when going for 140 yards and Florida St. allowed at least that six times. 10* (231) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Tulane had a magical season in 2022 as it went 12-2, tied with the 1998 team for most wins in school history, culminated by an amazing comeback in the Cotton Bowl against USC. We see a regression for sure and while it will not be same as that 1999 team that went 3-8, the Green Wave caught a lot of breaks last year catching some teams at the right place at the right time. Six starters are back on offense including Second Team AAC quarterback Michael Pratt who was sensational but all of his playmakers from last season are gone. The defense will be a solid unit once again with eight starters back but they face a really tough opening test. After finishing last season No. 9 in the final AP Poll, they come in No. 24 this season and while polls can be meaningless, it shows regression there as well. South Alabama finished 10-2 during the regular season last year, losing the two games to UCLA and eventual SBC Champion Troy by a combined five points. The Jaguars will be contenders again as they bring back nine starters on each side of the ball where both units dominated throughout. Quarterback Carter Bradley returns and despite setting the school record for passing yards in a season, he was only Fourth Team SBC but is preseason Second Team this year behind Grayson McCall. Six of his top seven receivers are back as well as the top three rushers along with four of five offensive linemen so yes they are loaded. The defense had its best showing in a decade and are extremely experienced and should be even better. 10* (219) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Game of the Week. Seeing Houston as a home underdog is going to have many scrambling to get on the Cougars but it looks like it is going to be a tough season. After going 12-2 in 2021, the Cougars opened last season in the top 25 with some big expectations only to finish a disappointing 8-5. To their credit, they did suffer two overtime losses but on the flip side, Houston won half of its games by only one possession and that was with having First Team AAC quarterback Clayton Tune who is now in the NFL. Only five starters return to an offense that averaged 36.1 ppg and 456 ypg and taking the place of Tune will be Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith who is talented but turns the ball over and also gone are the two top receivers from last season. The Cougars were horrible defensively and lost eight of their nine top tacklers. That is good news for UTSA which is the preseason favorite in the AAC following the last two seasons where it went a combined 23-5. The Roadrunners are loaded again with eight starters back on both sides of the ball. They have the best quarterback in the conference in Frank Harris who is back for his seventh season, yes seventh, where he holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense. He does lose his top receiver but the next four are all back as it leading rusher Kevorian Barnes who was also a First Team player despite being a freshman playing only seven games. The offensive line is deep and there will be no drop off from their 36 ppg average each of the last two seasons. 10* (211) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. North Texas has not been able to get over .500 since 2018 which led to head coach Seth Littrell being let go after seven seasons but it is not a do over. The Mean Green have made it to three straight bowl games and with 15 starters back, the cupboard is not bare. They hired Eric Morris as the new head coach and he comes over after leading the Washington St. offense last season and he will be bringing in a more spread out attack. North Texas has to replace quarterback Austin Anue but it is not a big downgrade with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers taking over. Helping him out is the return of the entire offensive line, ranked preseason No. 1 in the AAC, and the top six rushers as well as leading receiver Roderic Burns. One intangible is Morris knows the opposing defense and shredded them last season for 343 yards passing. California should be improved after three straight losing seasons including a 4-8 record last season. The Golden Bears lost some close games and they bring back 15 starters but being favored on the road by this many points after going 1-12 in their last 13 road games is a bit aggressive. Jack Plummer was great at quarterback last season but he is off to Louisville and California will have to find a new starter for a second straight season and there is no one competing that has been in this system. The defense does bring back nine starters but they were horrible last season, allowing 27.8 ppg and nearly 430 ypg and will not have much to go off of here. North Texas can easily win outright with the points being a premium. 10* (214) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. A first look at this number will put a lot of people on Boise St. getting over two touchdowns especially with what the Broncos did last season and expectations for this season. However, those expectations are in the very below average MWC and they will likely start the season 0-2 before facing FCS North Dakota as they are overmatched here. Boise St. ended up 10-4 last season but the schedule played a big part in that as of those 10 wins, seven were games in which they were favored by double digits so those were inflated. Offensively, the Broncos bring back quarterback Taylen Green who had a solid yet unspectacular season but does have solid running ability. Eight additional starters are back but lighting it up here will be a challenge. Defensively, they were No. 5 in passing defense so it looks as though they could challenge the Huskies but faced hardly any above average passing teams and have only five starters back on the entire defense. Washington finished 11-2 last season with the two losses coming back-to-back on the road at UCLA and Arizona St. by eight and seven points respectively, closed last season with seven straight wins and finished No. 8 in the AP Poll. The Huskies come into this season No. 10 in the preseason AP Poll and will again be in the hunt in the loaded Pac 12. Quarterback Michael Penix was second in the country in passing yards and led an offense that improved by 18.2 ppg and 196 ypg from 2021 and he has his top five receivers back. He should have no problem lighting this defense up. 10* (198) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Temple went just 3-9 for a second straight season but the Owls improved on both sides of the ball from 2021 and four of the losses last year were by one possession. They should continue to improve as they bring back 16 starters that includes seven on offense led by quarterback EJ Warner, the son of Kurt. He was the AAC Freshman of the Year after throwing for over 3,000 yards on a 61 percent completion percentage clip and while he did throw 12 interceptions, half of those were in his first four career starts. He loses his top receiver but will get transfer help and has an experienced and improved offensive line. The Owls will be stronger defensively with nine starters back and get a perfect first opponent. Akron had only one win last season against an FBS opponent and while the Zips also improved on both sides of the ball from 2021, but this is still a big work in progress. Offensively, the Zips bring back quarterback D.J. Irons, who is also the leading returning rusher and while he was not awful, he had no protection. They were the worst in the conference in tackles for loss allowed and No. 118 in the country in sacks allowed. It is a big work in progress on defense with a revamped defensive line and not much experience at linebacker. Akron is tied with Kent St. in the MAC for the worst combined ratings of the offensive and defensive lines and that is where it all starts. Temple was favored only once last season against an FBS opponent and easily covered so laying a number with the Owls is not an issue. 10* (172) Temple Owls

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After four straight bowl appearances from 2012-2015, Bowling Green went south quickly with six straight losing seasons and no bowl games but the Falcons turned things around last season. They did finish with a losing record but that was due to a bowl loss and they are building on that heading into this season. The offense has been bad for years and while they did show improvements last season, they should take a big step this season. Bowling Green brought in quarterback Conner Bazelak through the transfer portal after being a two-year starter at Missouri and for most of last year at Indiana, throwing for 7,370 career yards with 36 touchdowns. He should be able to sling it around with good protection from the offensive line which can open up the running game. Liberty had its fourth straight winning season a year ago but there could be some regression this season despite what looks like a very easy schedule. Gone is head coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn and in comes former Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell who is very solid but there are numerous questions at both of the coordinator positions. The Flames have to replace 14 starters and while there is experience at quarterback with great depth, Chadwell will not have Grayson McCall and his remarkable season around. Defensively, it is close to a total overhaul from a unit that led the nation in tackles for loss and was third in sacks and now has to replace eight starters. This line is too big and based too much on the past and not the present. 10* (161) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Louisville has a new head coach as Scott Satterfield left to take over at Cincinnati and the Cardinals brought in Jeff Brohm from Purdue which is basically a lateral move. It might seem like a great hire considering the Boilermakers won the Big Ten West but they did it with an easy schedule and five of the seven FBS wins were by one possession. Back to Louisville, it has a project on its hands, namely the offense. This was a very balanced offense and Brohm is bringing in a more wide open passing attack which could flourish later in the season but not now. Jack Plummer takes over at quarterback after coming over from California where he was solid but there are unknowns at receiver as the top two and four of the top five are gone while three starters have to be replaced along the offensive line. Georgia Tech opened the season 1-3 and Geoff Collins, who entered the season on the hot seat, was let go and it was pretty evident he was a bog part of the recent year struggles as the Yellow Jackets rallied around Brent Key to close the season 4-4. Going 5-7 by playing the No. 6 ranked schedule in the country is not horrible and while they are in the same boat as Louisville in terms of returning starters, the same systems are still in place. Quarterback Haynes King won the starting job and while he is new to a system as well, it is not as pass heavy and the running game should be strong. This is especially the case with four starting offensive linemen returning. While hot a true home game, this is a significant neutral field number. 10* (154) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. It was a disaster of a start for Connecticut and first year head coach Jim Mora in his first season in Storrs as it lost its first four FBS games by an average of 33.8 ppg. The Huskies then turned a corner as they defeated a very good Fresno St. team to start a 5-1 run and they became bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. While they lost to Marshall, the added practice time was very beneficial and they bring back 17 starters. The defense has eight coming back on a unit that made dramatic improvements from the previous four seasons. Joe Fagnano on the starting quarterback job over Zion Turner and this is pretty significant. He was a multi-year starter at Maine, where he threw for more than 5,600 yards and he is familiar with the Huskies system as their new offensive coordinator is Nick Charlton, who was the Black Bears head coach from 2019 through 2021. NC State is coming off a disappointing season as it closed 4-5 following a 4-0 start and while it is not a complete rebuild, many key parts have to be replaced. Quarterback was an issue last season but there is help with Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia and reuniting with offensive coordinator Robert Anae so this should be a potent part of the offense but later in the season. The Wolfpack lost three of their top four receivers while the offensive line will be a work in progress, coming in ranked No. 10 out of 14 teams in the ACC. The defense finished No. 20 overall and No. 15 in scoring but six starters have to be replaced. NC State rolled over Connecticut 41-10 last season so there is revenge in play for the Huskies and the 23-point line swing from that game is telling us the story as well. 10* (144) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Game of the Month. Year one for head coach Timmy Chang did not go as planned and while not much was expected, a 3-10 season was a big disappointment. Things should be better as after a rough start where the Warriors lost their first four FBS games by 53, 32, 46 and 19 points, four of the last six losses were by a touchdown or less so they became more competitive. They have only five starters back on offense but the quarterback, two starting receivers and a key running back return with the offensive line needing the biggest overhaul. That is not a huge concern in this matchup, however. Defensively, Hawaii was not good but has nine starters back from a unit that improved dramatically down the stretch. Vanderbilt was a win shy from its first bowl games since 2018 and with a decent group of 17 starters back, the Commodores can make some improvements. But they do not have any business laying a number this big as they have been a double-digit favorite over FBS competition just twice the last four seasons and failed to cover both, losing one outright. The point being, this is not a program accustomed to this spot. Playing in the SEC is not optimal for Vanderbilt and while this is a big step down in competition, the intangibles are not in their favor. Offensively, the passing game will be fine but quarterback A.J. Swann is just a sophomore and they have to replace their top two running backs and that is bad news for a team that likes to grind it out. There is experience on defense but nothing spectacular. 10* (311) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Opening Kickoff Winner. The hype behind Notre Dame is pretty typical every year but this season it is not getting as much love. The Irish come in ranked No. 13 in the preseason AP Poll after finishing No. 21 in the final CFP Poll last year which followed up a pair of top five finishes. This is the lowest preseason ranking since 2017 when they were unranked but expectations and high and this is Notre Dame with the name alone adding value to the opponent. The big gain for the Irish is Wake Forest transfer quarterback San Hartman who should flourish but it could take a bit with five of the top six receivers gone. They will be solid defensively again with eight starters back but the first game presents an unknown. After 15 full seasons at Navy, head coach Ken Niumatalolo was let go and defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted in hopes of turning around a program that is coming off three straight losing seasons. This recent run is another cause for this inflated line as that is all there is to go off of when in reality, the Midshipmen have some hidden advantages. The main one is the fact Notre Dame does not have much to look at for preparation as while the system is not dramatically changing, there are new wrinkles in the offense coming from Grant Chesnut, who was hired as offensive coordinator after having the same position at Kennesaw St. for nine years. Different looks and more of a pass game can keep Notre Dame off balance. Excellent value for the 2023 season opening game from Ireland. 10*(299) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. The Eagles are the very popular choice to win this game as it is hard to find many people liking the Chiefs but we are one of those with a lot of that based on this line. It opened as a pickem and moved to -1.5 and has remained steady despite two-thirds of the money coming in on the Eagles and we are using that nonmovement as a small factor. The key to this game is in the trenches where the Eagles are getting all of the pub to have the advantage but that is not really the case. Two years ago, the Chiefs were undone by the Buccaneers pass rush and many expect the same here as the Eagles led the league in sacks but the Chiefs have upgraded their offensive line since then and are an underrated unit heading into this game. They led the league in pass block win rate this season at 76 percent so they can neutralize Philadelphia along the line of scrimmage. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback they have faced in the postseason by a wide margin and while there is concern about his mobility due to his sprained ankle, he should be just fine and can find other ways to avoid constant pressure. On the other side, the Chiefs were second in sacks so they can also generate pressure against one of the best offensive lines in the league. There are no other secrets in any other key areas or injury concerns that will deter the numbers that are coming in. While Philadelphia had the better regular season and has dominated the postseason, it was not tested by the Giants or the 49ers who were down to their fourth string quarterback and during the regular season, it faced the second easiest schedule in the NFL so if it played even an average schedule, the results may have been different. 10* (101) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our AFC Championship Enforcer. While it would have been ideal to play this earlier in the week when the Chiefs were +2.5 but not everyone would have had access to that number and it was fairly certain that this line would come back to at least close to even based on injury news. That is exactly what has happened is that all reports stated the Patrick Mahomes has had very few limitations toward the end of the week and took every snap on Friday during practice. Even though the Chiefs have flipped back to the favorite, there is plenty of line value on then here at home. The Bengals were getting six points at Buffalo last week and now the number has dipped drastically against a better team despite any injury concerns. Part of the reason for this is that Cincinnati has crushed this season in this price range as it is 12-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown or an underdog and that includes a win here in Kansas City in Week 13 and that brings up a narrative that has been all over the place this week stating that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes and do not think so a second the Chiefs are using that in their own favor. Cincinnati formulated a great gameplan last week against Buffalo to compensate what was a big disadvantage along the offensive line as there were plenty of quick throws by Burrow to alleviate the pressure but with film from that, the Chiefs now have more to look at and get ready for. The Bengals also had an advantage with the snow as it is much tougher for defensive linemen to get their leverage which also slowed down the pass rush. Now they will be facing a Kansas City defense that registered 55 sacks this season, second to only Philadelphia in the league. While Sean McDermont did not formulate a good gameplan on offense against Cincinnati, rest assured Andy Reid will even though he has lost the last three matchups but all three of those were decided by a field goal so they could have gone either way. Now that we know Mahomes is at least 80-90 percent, the value is squarely on the better team at home. 10* (324) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC Championship Dominator. The Eagles rolled the Giants in the Divisional Round and it was a mix of Philadelphia regaining its dominant form along with New York not being at the level we thought. They take a big step up in competition here but playing at home makes up for a lot of that and they are obviously laying a much smaller price this week. Philadelphia outgained the Giants by 189 total yards and did so without much trying later in the game when it was out of reach. The Eagles basically had one bad game the entire season when Jalen hurts was healthy and that was their only loss when he started which was against Washington and a lot of that came down to turnovers where they had four which led to the Commanders having a 2-1 edge in time of possession. The 49ers possess the No. 1 defense but the Eagles are not far behind at No. 2, trailing by less that a yard per game and they have the edge in this particular matchup. Philadelphia has the second highest pressure rate without blitzing in the NFL so Brock Purdy will be under constant stress all day. Purdy has been a great story as he is 8-0 in the eight games since coming in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo including 7-0 as a starter. Six of those games were at home with the two road games coming at Seattle and Las Vegas so this will be his first real test in a real environment. The 49ers escaped against Dallas last week as San Francisco capitalized on turnovers which kept the game close and they eventually pulled away in the fourth quarter. The 49ers struggled on offense as the Cowboys defense pretty much dictated the game throughout. They will have the same problems here as the Eagles will take out the middle of the field as this is where both teams excel and defense has advantage over offense when it comes to strength against strength. If there is one weakness of the 49ers defense, it is their struggles against mobile quarterbacks and while Hurts did not have a massive game on the ground, he did not have to and he looked healthy which is most important. 10* (322) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. We have a great situational matchup here favoring the 49ers and we can take advantage of a short line. Also, San Francisco has a big edge with two extra days of rest plus the travel aspect. We played against Dallas on Monday and that obviously ended up being a horrible call as Tampa Bay confirmed it was a fraud and the regular season was no deception. Give the Cowboys credit for playing one of their best games of the season on both sides of the ball but we can expect some regression here as teams coming off performances like that rarely repeat it unless they are an elite team and Dallas is not quite in that category. And now they step up in competition in a big way against the hottest team in the conference. This is the fourth straight road game for the Cowboys and the travel could have caught up especially with the cross country aspect in back-to-back weeks. Dallas had its best offensive performance since November but this is where the real regression will come into play as it faces the No. 1 defense in the league in both points allowed and total yards allowed. Seattle played well on Saturday to start the game as it actually took a lead into halftime against the 49ers but San Francisco put the pedal down in the second half as it scored 25 unanswered points before allowing a late garbage touchdown. While the defense is the strength of this team, the offense is hardly a liability. The 49ers amassed 505 yards of total offense against the Seahawks which was the most put up since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback and he is looking more comfortable each game. The Seahawks defense is dreadful so that had something to do with it but this team is loaded with talent around him which has certainly helped the transition. It is now 11 straight wins for the 49ers and in dominating fashion as they have outgained the opponent in 10 of those. San Francisco is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (318) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We see some great value with this line in what will be another very emotional home game for the Bills. This is a rematch of the canceled Monday night game that had the unfortunate and ultimately, inspiring moment going forward with Damar Hamlin and now Buffalo gets the Bengals at home at a relatively short price after also closing as a favorite on the road in that first matchup. The Bills got away with one as they won by a field goal despite dominating the Dolphins but were hurt by three turnovers, one that led to a fumble return for a touchdown. The offense did its normal thing and the defense allowed just 219 yards and while that was against a third string quarterback and it takes a big step up here, the matchup is in its favor. The Bengals had a very legitimate shot at losing to Baltimore and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley as they trailed for most of the game but took the lead for good on defensive lineman Sam Hubbard’s 98-yard fumble return touchdown for a 14-point swing. The Bengals were outgained 364-234 as they had no running game and Joe Burrow was unable to stretch the field as he had just 209 yards passing. There is more bad news for the offense as Cincinnati entered Sunday already without two of its five starting linemen due to injuries and lost left tackle Jonah Williams and the production of the offense was greatly impacted by that. The Ravens had nine players with a quarterback pressure after that and Buffalo had eight players record two-plus pressures against a mediocre Miami offensive line so the Bills have a huge edge here. The defense was bailed out by that fumble return and will nor face a totally different test here as Buffalo is ranked No. 2 in both total offense and scoring offense. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 70 and 95 rushing ypg and after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 95 and 125 rushing ypg. This situation is 108-62 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. We won with the Giants on Sunday and while a lot of that was playing against an overrated Vikings team, New York showed a lot of good things and deserve to be here. The Giants outgained Minnesota by 99 total yards and while they succeeded against a bad defense, this coaching staff can gameplan given the opponent as Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready again. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess a defense that can play well in crunch time. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating and while facing a much better defense, the fact that he did not play in the second meeting in Week 18 is an advantage. The Eagles cruised through the regular season with a 14-3 record and obviously two of those losses came with Jalen Hurts not playing and while he did return in the season finale against the Giants, he was not great as he put up a 65.1 passer rating. The Eagles did go vanilla in that game and while he gets extra rest, there is still a concern with his shoulder and his excellent running game could be deterred. This is a dominant team when fully healthy but they are down some key players on defense but the other big one is tackle Lane Johnson who is down with an abdominal injury and comes in as questionable and will clearly not be 100 percent if he can go. Coming off the bye, Philadelphia is going to be a big public play as some will perceive this line being a short one but it its last two home games with all starter in, it was favored by less over Tennessee and Green Bay. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 37-8 ATS (82.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) New York Giants

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Wildcard Game of the Month. Tampa Bay was probably the most underachieving team in the league this season and was fortunate to have played in the weakest division in the NFL. That being said, Tom Brady has excelled in these positions before and is battle tested that can will his team to a win. He is coming off his worst passer rating since coming to Tampa Bay but he has been sharper with the vertical attack of late with the exception of a pair of bad games against Cincinnati and San Francisco and we cannot put Dallas on those levels. The Buccaneers closed the season 1-6 against the number and that is playing into the fact it is an underdog in this game and while its 4-4 record at home is not great, it needs to be respected. Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen could be activated this week after missing the regular season with a knee injury and this would be a massive boost to the offensive line. Dallas is coming off a clunker in the season finale but it was just going through the motions so we can probably discount that. Still, the Cowboys have not been playing well with some close wins and in the last four victories, they have faced Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs and they have been outgained in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were solid at home with an 8-1 record but are just 4-4 on the road and are at a disadvantage at quarterback. Dak Prescott is currently playing the worst football of his career and he has tossed 15 interceptions this season despite playing only 12 games and he had an awful performance in the first meeting with Tampa Bay. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (152) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This line stinks. These teams played less than a month ago with the Vikings closing as a 4.5-point favorite as they won by three points on a last second 61-yard field goal and that result is partially dictating the line this week. Minnesota was outgained by 92 yards as it allowed 445 yards which has been the only time the Giants have eclipsed 400 yards in their last seven games as this defense is bad but New York was hurt by two costly turnovers. The Vikings have been outgained in six of their last nine games and they return home where they are 8-1 but seven of those wins were by only one possession with 11 of their 13 overall wins coming within that as well. They are the only team in NFL history that has at least 12 wins to go along with a negative point differential. The betting markets have caught up as Minnesota has dropped four of its last five games against the number. The Giants had nothing to play for last week against the Eagles, did not play most starters and still kept the game close. Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess the much better defense. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating which was tied for No. 13 in the league and he was tied with, you guessed it, Kirk Cousins. His success can be credited to Daboll without question. Saquon Barkley had only 84 yards rushing in the first meeting but he ran it just 14 times and now faces a defense that has allowed an average of 138.7 ypg over the last six weeks. The Giants are 5-1 when Barkley gets 20 or more carries and that will definitely be the goal here as long as they do not get down big early. 10* (147) New York Giants

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers closed the season with wins in four of their last five games with the loss being the meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos. They did play starters longer than expected with came with mixed opinions but they did not lose any rhythm which is a big part. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing well over the second half of the season with a rating of 100 or higher in five of his last eight games and he presents a tough matchup for the Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars have faced Joshua Dobbs, Davis Mills and Zach Wilson over their last three games so they were not tested while allowing only 22 combined points in those games. On the season, Jacksonville finished No. 30 in DVOA and were one of just five teams that allowed 4,000 yards passing. Herbert was banged up earlier in the season and he has dealt with many key teammates missing time as well and the Chargers are relatively healthy heading into the postseason. He threw for 297 yards in the first meeting this season but he had broken ribs. Jacksonville meanwhile has won five straight games to get to this point with both sides of the ball playing well. A win over Dallas was very solid but the last three have come against the Jets, Texans and Titans which went a combined 4-20 over the last eight weeks and it took a fumble recovery for a touchdown to win last week. Trevor Lawrence has played well over the second half of the season as well but he was not sharp last week and is not as consistent as Herbert has been. Here, we play on teams revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 65-28 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (143) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CFB Bowl Game of the Year. TCU is the surprise of the college football season and it continues to get no respect. Despite a 12-0 record, the Horned Frogs were underdogs in the Big 12 Championship because no one wants to bet on this team and while they lost, it took overtime in a game they outgained the Wildcats by 65 yards and were more impressive last week. Many thought of it to be a mismatch against Michigan even with its high-powered offense but they scored 51 points and put up 488 yards against one of the best defenses in the country which showed the Horned Frogs do belong. They obviously have another big test here against one of the best defenses in the country but possess one of the best offensive minds in college football in head coach Sonny Dykes who worked with the late, great Mike Leach at Texas Tech and turned around offenses in his stops before heading to TCU. In the last two games, the Georgia defense has given up 850 yards passing and it has been middle of the road all season at No. 52 overall. Georgia no doubt has a power offense of its own and the fact TCU allowed 45 points against Michigan is a concern but overall, the Horned Frogs held some very solid defenses from the Big 12 in check. The Horned Frogs had more wins over ranked opponents (6) than Georgia (4) and while the teams cannot dictate who they play in not giving Georgia the same amount off opportunities, the fact that they won those games tells a lot for TCU. Power rankings call for Georgia being a touchdown favorite here which shows an inflated line which was also the case against Michigan that unfortunately we did not take advantage of. One overlooked factor here is that Georgia had the advantage of playing the SEC Championship and the CFP Semifinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium which is not too far from campus so there was hardly any travel and that has been the case for most of this season. Eight games were played away from Athens including four neutral sites that were all close by and the furthest trip was to Missouri and we all saw what almost happened there. This is not an end all be all aspect but counts some. 10* (287) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Here is another easy scenario for Green Bay as a win and it is in the playoffs so the task at hand is to win its fifth straight game but the markets have adjusted here as well. The advanced line prior to the conclusion of the games last week had Green Bay -3 and it was quickly moved up because the Packers are going to be a big betting favorite this week and we are now catching value on the other side over a key number. In the Packers four victories, they were outgained in three of those as they only outyarded the Rams at home. Green Bay does nothing particularly well as it is ranked middle of the pack in all major statistical categories with the exception of its solid passing defense. The situation is a lot different for Detroit as it not only needs to win but also have Seattle lose earlier in the day. Because of this, the Lions will know their fate before kickoff but if Seattle wins, that does not mean they are going to pack in it. They might be disappointed once the news comes if the Seahawks are victorious, but they will be playing just as hard as this is a divisional rival and a chance to play spoiler and prevent the Packers from going to the playoffs. Teams do not pack it in in situations like this as players are still going all out for themselves, their contracts and their futures and Dan Campbell is not going down easy for anyone. This offense remains one of the best and keeps it in this one. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems off a win against a division rival, in January games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC West Game of the Month. It is an easy scenario for Seattle but not in its own control as it has to win here and have the Packers lose to Detroit Sunday night so this is a must win and in the final week of the regular season, these must wins scenarios force the markets to make adjustments. The advanced line was Seattle -3 and after its victory last week to keep its playoff hopes alive, the line jumped considerably as the Seahawks are a must win team that the public will be all over. We played against them last week and the Jets offense could not get anything going while Seattle was able to rush for 198 yards which was very uncharacteristic of the New York defense and Seattle will be facing another strong rushing defense here. It has been an up and down run for Los Angeles since Baker Mayfield took over as the Rams are 2-2 following a loss last week against the Chargers but they continue to play hard and would like nothing more than to eliminate Seattle from playoff contention. The win over Las Vegas was followed up by a horrible road effort at Green Bay with the weather playing a role in that and despite the loss last week, the running game has gotten potent again as they have gained 158 and 166 yards on the ground the last two weeks. Comparing the line to last week against the Chargers, Los Angeles is getting just a half-point less against a team not on the same level as the Chargers. Value and contrarian makes Los Angeles the play here and the Rams could use a big boost going into the offense after a disappointing campaign. 10* (451) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is the lone game we are going against a non-playoff team as Arizona is trash right now. The Cardinals have lost six straight games and while the last two were by four points combined including one in overtime, those were against bad teams in Atlanta and Tampa Bay and were already dominated once in the earlier matchup. The loss of Kyler Murray, who has played in just 10 games, has been a big reason for the rough season but he was not playing that well when he was in the lineup. This is a big number to lay but the situation calls for it and is backed up by a great one noted at the end. The 49ers are still competing for seeding in the NFC as they can clinch the No. 1 spot with a win and an Eagles loss and while the latter is unlikely, these games are being played at the same time so there will be no reason to let up unless they are scoreboard watching in the second half but they could already be winning huge by that point. San Francisco has won nine straight games and wants to keep this momentum rolling into the postseason no matter where it sits in the standings. The 49ers have been outgained only once over this stretch thanks to a top two defense and a top five offense behind Brock Purdy and his 101.4 quarterback rating to go along with his 10:4 TD/INT ratio. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after two or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (468) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is the third instance of going against an overinflated line favoring a team that needs to win to have a chance to get to the postseason. Pittsburgh has made a late season push as it has won three straight games and five of their last six to get to 8-8 and not only to try and secure a playoff spot but also finish without a losing record, something that has never happened under head coach Mike Tomlin. The win last week over Baltimore was a good one but it was against a second string quarterback and the other four wins over this recent stretch were all against teams with a worst record than Cleveland. The defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to fewer than 300 total yards but are in a tricky spot here. It is tricky because they are facing Deshaun Watson who has not been good through five starts but is coming off his best game with a 122.5 passer rating against a solid Washington defense as he finally showed flashes of what he is capable of even though he threw the ball only 18 times. His ability to run can cause problems here as the Steelers have not faced a quarterback like this since facing Jalen Hurts in late October. The Browns were expected to have a not so great season without Watson for 11 games and that came to fruition but still possess the No. 6 rushing offense to go along with an above average defense. Here, we play against home favorites in a game involving two teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after a game where they forced one or less turnovers. This situation is 69-35 ATS (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. Tennessee and Jacksonville have taken different routes in the second half of the season to get to this point where the Week 18 matchup decides the division. The Titans come in riding a six-game losing streak but three of those were one possession games while two of the blowouts were against Super Bowl contenders Philadelphia and Dallas and the sixth came against this Jacksonville team which adds some added juice even though that is not needed with what is on the line. While they have been outgained in all six of those games, only one, the game against the Eagles, was a complete domination and the other four were by just an average of 46.4 ypg so while the losses have accumulated, it has not been a complete implosion. Tennessee treated last week as basically a bye week as the game against Dallas meant nothing and it was still a game early in the fourth quarter so it comes in with a bunch of rested players which is at a perfect time. Joshua Dobbs gets the start at quarterback and he was not great but was able to move the ball vertically with no running game behind him and a healthy Derrick Henry along with a superior defense makes them a live dog here. Jacksonville meanwhile has won four straight games to get to this point with both sides of the ball playing well. A win over Dallas was very solid but the last two have come against the Jets and Texans which are a combined 2-12 over the last seven weeks. The play of Trevor Lawrence has been outstanding over the last eight weeks with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions although he did not throw a touchdown pass in either of the last two games. The overall offense has moved into the top ten but they are still facing a tough defense in a divisional game and based on recent results, the Jaguars number is overinflated. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (457) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Rose Bowl Winner. Utah will be out for some retribution following a loss in the Rose Bowl last season, falling by a field goal to Ohio St. and it has a good matchup here to do so. Penn St. and Utah both do a fantastic job of getting pressure on the quarterback, stopping the run and creating turnovers but it is Utah that has played the tougher schedule and is better equipped to handle it here. Utah is one of five Power 5 teams that rank in the top 20 in both total offense and defense and led the Pac 12 in both categories. The offense is balanced led by underrated quarterback Cam Rising who threw for 2,939 yards and 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 66.2 percent of his passes. The Utes will be without leading rusher Tavion Thomas but they have great depth and will be fine with Ja'Quinden Jackson and Micah Bernard. Over the last two games, Jackson rushed for 222 yards on 9.7 ypc and five touchdowns while Bernard rushed for 179 yards on 7.8 ypc and two touchdowns. One huge asset the Nittany Lions have is a strong rushing defense that is ranked No. 14 in the country despite allowing a whopping 418 rushing yards against Michigan. That is key because Penn St. faced some horrible rushing teams besides that. It was a great season for Penn St. with its only losses coming against Michigan and Ohio St. and it backed into the Rose Bowl because those two teams both qualified for the CFP. The Nittany Lions possess a very balanced offense led by veteran quarterback Sean Clifford who numbers rival those of Rising but faced some poor defenses down the stretch. Utah is ranked No. 20 in total defense with a strong rushing defense of its own as it is ranked No. 16 against the run. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 rushing ypg. This situation is 99-54 ATS (64.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (283) Utah Utes

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The betting market has caught up to the Vikings as they have dropped three straight against the number including the last two games where they won outright by a field goal but failed to win by margin. Minnesota is now an underdog for just the third time in their last 14 games and we see the value. The Vikings clinched the division two games back and still have an outside shot for the No. 1 seen in the NFC should they win out and the Eagles lose their last two games. They will know the Philadelphia result before this game kicks off but they are not going to rest anyone in this divisional game that has a lot of meaning on its own as they will rest starters in Week 18 should they lock up the No. 2 seed but keep in mind they also are out to hold off the 49ers who are one game back. The Packers, who were left for dead a few weeks ago, have gotten back into the playoff mix as they have won three straight games but two of those were against the Bears and Rams and the other against the imploding Dolphins. The offense has picked it up after a slow start but the Packers could be without one of their best weapons as Christian Watson is questionable with a hip injury as he has not practiced all week. The Vikings have the offense that can have success against the passing defense of Green Bay and a lot of that will be to utilize the running game as there are only two teams that have a worse adjusted rush defense EPA than the Packers and those are the Seahawks and Bears. Betting against Aaron Rodgers in these spots is never easy but the Vikings are the clear side. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (127) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. The Jets and Seahawks, both of which looked to be playoff locks at one point in the season, have fallen on hard times and this is a must win game for both teams. The Jets have to win here and win next week in Miami so a loss here and their chances are done. New York has lost four straight games and is in much better shape at this point from a roster standpoint as they gladly welcome back quarterback Mike White who missed the last two games with a rib injury after Zach Wilson basically buried the Jets over those last two games. In the two losses prior to that at Buffalo and at Minnesota, New York outgained both opponents and both were there for the taking and now they will be facing their fifth straight opponent that is in the playoffs or still alive for a spot and it is the worst team of the bunch. While the offense has struggled with the inconsistent quarterback play, the defense is as good as it gets, ranked No. 3 overall and No. 4 in points allowed. Seattle has lost three straight games, also against playoff or playoff contending teams, and it has been outgained in four of its last six games. this team has been overrated all season long and going into Week 17, the Seahawks are ranked No. 30 in net adjusted EPA, ahead of only the Cardinals and Bears. This is mainly based on the defense which has been atrocious from day one. They are raked No. 29 in both total defense and scoring defense and are equally bad in both areas. Seattle has a bottom-10 pass rush, which has attributed to the secondary being left on an island and the rushing defense is even worse where they are second to last in the league. Here, we play on road teams involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (123) New York Jets

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The second to final week of the regular season is usually very important for teams trying to make a playoff spot but that is not the case here. Similar to Tennessee on Thursday, the season for Jacksonville comes down to next week in its home game against the Titans which will decide the AFC South win or lose here. The Titans rested a lot of players against the Cowboys and while the Jaguars have not announced anything as of yet, it would not be surprising for Doug Pederson to pull players as to remain healthy as he has done so in the past. Jacksonville is a sell team right now as it has won and covered three straight games to improve to 7-8 and while it is playing well, it has benefitted from a Tennessee meltdown to get into this position. The Jaguars offense remains the strength behind a great second half from quarterback Trevor Lawrence but the defense is well below average to give the Texans offense a chance for some success. Houston snapped a nine-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and this provides its final opportunity to pick up a win at home as it is 0-6-1 which includes six consecutive losses. It has been an expected difficult season for the Texans but to their credit, they have played hard through the first 16 weeks as they have covered three straight games against either playoff or potential playoff teams and while they could have packed it in long ago, they have not. They did catch a break last week facing Tennessee with a backup quarterback but they have had the Jaguars number with nine straight wins in this series and while some of that is meaningless, there are matchup edges. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (114) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Detroit was rolling along with three straight wins and victories in six of its last seven games before getting exposed by Carolina last week as it allowed 37 points against one of the worst offenses in the NFL to severely hurt its playoff chances. The Lions are now 7-8 which is tied with Seattle and Green Bay, a half-game behind Washington for the final wild card spot in the NFL and are now favored for just the fifth time this season and by far the most the points they have laid. The one huge liability last week was the rushing defense as they allowed the Panthers to rush for 320 yards on 43 carries (7.4 ypc) and now face a team where rushing offense is the strength. The Lions do possess a strong offense but with that defense, any team can hang around. Chicago has lost eight straight games following a 22-point loss to Buffalo last week in horrible playing conditions and it closes out a lousy season with a pair of divisional games including this spoiler attempt. The Bears have covered only once in their last six games which creates value and those are the streaks we love going against especially in a divisional matchup. Despite gaining just 80 yards on the ground last week against Buffalo, the Bears still possess the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL. That poses well here and even more so knowing they rushed for 258 yards in the first meeting that resulted in a one point loss after blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead that was aided by an interception returned for a touchdown by the Lions. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (115) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFB Nonconference Game of the Month. Not too often will you hear Alabama and line value uttered in the same sentence but that is the case in the Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide have been favored by double-digits in all but one game this season which was a true road game at Tennessee where they were favored by nine points. Now they are favored less than that on a neutral field in a game where they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and with no opt outs, they are here to win and win big. Alabama is out to prove something after missing out on the College Football Playoff, which it did not deserve a spot, but it did in its own mind and that is motivation enough. The Crimson Tide offense is at full strength after averaging 40.8 ppg during the regular season, good for No. 4 in the nation. The Wildcats are a respectable No. 53 in the country in total defense at 365.8 ypg and in the two games they faced a high-powered offense against TCU, they allowed 38 and 28 points, and in the two other games they points, those were against two offenses not on the same level as Alabama. The Kansas St. offense has been on a roll of late as the Wildcats have scored 30 or more points in five of its last six games but facing Big 12 defenses will do that. Obviously, one of those wins came against TCU but the Horned Frogs do not have a very good defense despite being the No. 3 team in the country and the best defense Kansas St. has faced over this six-game stretch is ranked No. 50. Alabama checks in at No. 15 and is ranked in the top 30 in all major defensive categories. Kansas St. has a great running back in Deuce Vaughn as he has 1,425 yards on the ground and a cause for concern is that the Crimson Tide allowed 318 yards rushing against Auburn but we can categorize that as an aberration as just four other teams managed to go over 100 yards on the ground against their defense this season. Alabama has big edges on both sides of the ball and we will gladly lay the short price. 10* (272) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Wyoming is in a very tough spot as it has one of the worst offenses in the country as it is ranked No. 118 in total offense and No. 112 in scoring offense and is now down a ton in the Arizona Bowl. The Cowboys leading rusher Titus Swen, who had 1,039 yards on the ground entered the transfer portal as did leading receiver Josh Cobbs, who had just 407 yards which shows how bad the passing game has been. With Swen on the move, there is a ton of pressure on quarterback Andrew Peasley who was pretty bad as he threw for just 1,388 yards with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions while barely completing over half of his passes. They will be facing one of the worst defenses in the country against the pass but that will not matter here as Wyoming scored just 31 points total over their last three games. The Bobcats would struggle against a good offense but certainly not here. Ohio had one of the best offenses in the country as it was led by MAC Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Kurtis Rourke but he sustained a season ending injury late in the year so that offense will definitely not be as prolific. CJ Harris has played two games and was pretty good so that experience and extra preparation time will benefit him going up against a very good Wyoming defense. But that defense is also down some key players as it best corner Cameron Stone and edge rusher Oluwaseyi Omotosho, who was second on the team with 6.5 sacks, both entered the transfer portal. We can expect a big game from running back Sieh Bangura, the MAC Freshman of the Year, as he led the team with 940 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. We are catching a small line because of the Rourke absence but Ohio is in great shape for its first 10-win season since 2011. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after gaining 250 or less total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (266) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. The transfer portal has affected these two teams in different ways with UCLA players showing the classy way to go out. Pittsburgh and UCLA had the leading rushers in their respective conferences with Israel Abanikanda leading the ACC with 1,431 yards and Zach Charbonnet leading the Pac 12 with 1,359 yards but only Charbonnet will be present on Friday as Abanikanda opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. That is a big loss for the Panthers who will also be without starting quarterback Kedon Clovis who entered the transfer portal and is off to BYU leaving Pittsburgh with a makeshift offense. This is not good news for an offense that was average to begin with and now it will be Nick Patti and/or Nate Yarnell making the start at quarterback after throwing for just 258 yards combined on only 32 passing attempts. The UCLA defense is not very good and would have been vulnerable against a full Panthers offense but should be able to keep the Panthers in check. The defense did have its moments against some average offenses and that is what we can classify Pittsburgh at this point. Conversely, the UCLA offense is in fine shape with Charbonnet and do everything quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing despite both going to be taken in the NFL Draft and respect for them to play with their teammates in what was a great season. The Bruins finished No. 3 in the country in total offense and what made it so lethal was the balance as they were the only team in the country to have at least 2,900 yards rushing and 3,100 yards passing. Thompson-Robinson was exceptional as he accumulated 3,514 total yards and 39 touchdowns both through the air and on the ground and while facing a solid defense, that unit also lost players that have opted out including all-American tackle and NFL prospect Calijah Kancey. There will be plenty of motivation for the Bruins as they seek their first 10-win season since 2014, the same year they had their last bowl victory. 10* (262) UCLA Bruins

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. We typically do not lay big numbers in bowl games but this will be an exception. Both teams should have plenty of motivation here as Oklahoma will want to avoid a losing season for the first time since 1998 so there will be pride while on the other side, the Seminoles will be out its first 10-win season since 2016 and looks to set the tone for 2023 which could be a special one given the talent that they are returning and bringing in via the transfer portal and recruiting class. These were two of the best rushing teams in the country during the regular season but they will be totally different heading into the bowl game. The Sooners would have had a significant edge against a pretty bad Florida St. rushing defense but star running back Eric Gray, who rushed for 1,364 yards, opted out of the game as did both starting tackles leaving the ball in the hands of quarterback Dillon Gabriel who did have a decent season but now has no running game to rely on and he will be missing his deep threat receiver Theo Wease who also opted out. He faces a Seminoles passing defense that allowed just 158.9 ypg which as No. 3 in the country. on the other side, the Seminoles finished just ahead of Oklahoma in rushing offense at No. 12 with 217.8 ypg and the difference here is that everyone will be playing. Their four leading rushers all eclipsed 4.9 ypc and together they combined for 26 touchdowns. Oklahoma ranked No. 107 in rushing defense, giving up at least 203 rushing yards five times and to no surprise, they lost all five of those games. The Sooners are just 1-6 when allowing more than 14 points this season and that will not be an issue for Florida St. to surpass that number. Pride can only go so far as the Sooners are severely undermanned in this matchup and what looks good on paper could potentially turn into a blowout. 10* (256) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Mississippi opened the season 7-0 and got itself into the top ten but then the schedule stiffened and the Rebels folded. They lost four of their last five games with the only win over that stretch coming against a bad Texas A&M team. That was the story this season as they beat just one Power 5 team that qualified for a bowl game all season which was Kentucky and went 0-4 in their other meetings with Power 5 bowl teams. Their rushing attack has been lethal as they average 261.6 ypg which is the most in the country from a non-option running team so the Red Raiders will have their hands full. But they possess a very underrated defense that was the best one to take the field in years as this season, Texas Tech is ranked No. 45 in EPA per play and No. 33 in success rate. Even more impressive is the fact they allowed 29.5 ppg which is nothing great but it is the fewest it has allowed in over a decade. The Red Raiders closed the season with three straight wins, two coming against bowl teams, part of four victories they have against bowl teams overall. The results are a bit surprising with this being the first season with head coach Joey McGuire and some low expectations coming in but they overachieved to finish 7-5 and will be amped up to carry some momentum into next season. One thing that has not changed is the offense that goes fast and is one of the best in the country. The Red Raiders average the most offensive plays in the country while their 44.2 passing attempts per game is the third most in the nation. That has led to the No. 13 ranked passing offense which will find success as the Rebels defense is ranked No. 98 in pass success rate which is a better indicator than the raw yards allowed. Despite some gaudy passing numbers, the running game is very effective and can keep defenses off balance as Texas Tech is averaging a solid 152.1 ypg on the ground. 10* (252) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Central Florida opened this game as the favorite but the line has flipped with the Knights coming in banged up and shorthanded. UCF lost two of its last three games including a defeat in the AAC Championship and this is not the destination it was expecting just a few short weeks ago. Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is not on the injury list but dealt with a hamstring injury down the stretch and that hurts the offense besides the passing game as he led UCF in rushing during the regular season with 841 yards. He could be limited against a Duke defense that finished No. 24 in the country in yards allowed per game and 18th in rush play success rate. While the running game could be hampered, the passing attack is hurt as top receiver Ryan O'Keefe is entering the transfer portal and will not play. The weakness of the Blue Devils defense is against the pass but they catch a break here. Duke is coming off an 8-4 season and while there were not many quality wins, the fact it was able to get to eight wins was a huge achievement for a team picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC. The Blue Devils won four of their last five games with the only loss coming to Pittsburgh by two points. They have a dynamic offense that is very balanced as Duke ranked No. 3 in the conference in rushing with 184.8 ypg and No. 6 in passing with 236.4 ypg while also averaging 33.1 ppg. The offensive line is responsible for a lot of the success, especially on the ground as they are ranked No. 4 in stuff rate, No. 9 in line yards, and No. 31 in the country in rush play success rate. The Knights passing defense is a big weakness, ranked No. 81 in coverage rate while allowing 268 passing ypg over its last nine games taking Navy out of the equation. Over the last three games, the Knights allowed 267 ypg rushing so this unit has been gashed all over the place and has been very inconsistent. 10* (246) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Oklahoma St. was a favorite in the Big 12 coming into the season and after a 5-0 start, things were looking good. The Cowboys then suffered a loss in overtime against TCU which put them in a tailspin and while they did respond with a win against Texas, the closed the season on a 1-4 run with the only win coming against bottom feeder Iowa St. despite getting outgained by 89 yards and posting just 244 yards of total offense. The Cowboys averaged just 13.6 ppg over that five-game closing stretch and now have to go into the bowl game without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders who entered the transfer portal. Backups Gunner Gundy and Garret Rangel were not good when pressed into play as they completed 52 percent of their passes while throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions so it is a significant drop off. They will not be facing one of the best defenses it has seen all season. The Badgers dropped their regular season finale against Minnesota to finish 6-6but it was a good rally following the firing of head coach Paul Chryst and there is motivation for Wisconsin to end the season with a win for interim head coach Jim Leonard who is a player favorite and did not get the permanent head coaching position. The offense struggled this season and will also have to play with a backup quarterback as starter Graham Mertz also entered the transfer portal but the drop off is not as significant even though there is little experience as they are not a passing team to begin with, ranking No. 22 in the country in running percentage. Leading rusher Braelon Allen is questionable after missing the last game but Wisconsin goes up against an Oklahoma St. defense ranked No. 100 in opponent yards per play. On the other side, Wisconsin ranked 12th in the nation in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents while allowing more than 24 points only once in its last seven games. 10* (244) Wisconsin Badgers

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Tuesday Afternoon Dominator. A pair of underwhelming teams square off in Dallas and that typically favors the underdog, especially one that is getting a significant amount of points. Utah St. had its three-game winning streak snapped in a fluky loss at Boise St. to close the regular season as it was down by just five points midway through the fourth quarter before the Broncos scored on a 91-yard touchdown run and then on a 48-yard interception return for a score to close the game. It was an excellent run to close the season after the Aggies opened 1-4 and while the top level stats show weaknesses, digging deeper does show some edges in key areas. They possess an underrated defense where it is ranked No. 22 in Stuff Rate and No. 32 in Passing Success Rate so it can slow this Memphis offense down whose own top level numbers are inflated. Memphis also finished 6-6 and closed the season with a loss against SMU which snapped its own two-game winning streak. The Tigers beat the teams it should have but struggled against the rest of the slate as they went 1-6 against bowl teams. The Tigers passing game is solid but as mentioned, they will be facing a strong pass defense. Memphis does not run the ball well at all and it is ranked No. 84 in ERA per rush and No. 104 in line yards and that goes right up against the Utah St. strength along the line of scrimmage. Their defense is overrated as while they are No. 63 in total defense, they are No. 77 in EPA per play and No. 88 in Success Rate and the passing defense is a real weakness as the tigers are No. 95 in EPA per pass and No. 109 in Passing Success Rate and Utah St. can take advantage. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have been outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 76-38 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (239) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Since winning against La Vegas in the first games for interim head coach Jeff Saturday, the Colts have lost four straight games and were outgained in all four of those. The new coaching staff has not been ideal at making halftime adjustments as the Colts have been outscored 72-9 in the second half and in overtime over the last two games which has obviously been the difference. The offense has done nothing as they have averaged only 306.0 ypg. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been a lawn chair and he has now been benched for a second time this season in favor of Nick Foles and this is the jumpstart this offense needs. We have already seen it a few times this season when a new starter enters and the team is energized. The absence of Jonathan Taylor is a big one at running back but Indianapolis will be facing a defense that has underwhelmed on the road, allowing 24 and 27 points over the last two games at Arizona and at Las Vegas. The Chargers have won three of their last four games and have a chance to clinch a playoff berth but they have underwhelmed this season. Of the eight victories, seven have come by one possession including five by a field goal or less. The Colts defense has been playing solid when using their normal schemes and they have a chance to disrupt Justin Herbert here. He has been pressured 201 times this season, which trails only Kirk Cousins and the Colts tied at No. 7 in sacks so this is where they sloe this offense down. While the Colts second half woes have been a problem, it should not carry over here as Los Angeles has no third-quarter touchdowns in its last nine games and has been outscored 175-109 in the second half and overtime this year. Defensively, Los Angeles has looked better the last two weeks and the matchup looks to be in its favor but in seven road games, it has allowed 24 or more points five times. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last two weeks of the regular season. This situation is 60-27 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (482) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Monday Enforcer. Bowling Green closed the season winning four of its last six games to earn a trip to a bowl game for the first time since 2005 but this is not a good team. The Falcons are ranked No. 97 or worse in six of the eight statistical categories including No. 105 in total offense and No. 106 in total defense and in its 12 games, Bowling Green has been outgained nine times. Despite a 5-3 MAC record, the offense scored 17 or fewer points five times and the Falcons will be facing a pretty strong defense. Quarterback Matt McDonald is coming off one of his worst games of the season and has been inconsistent throughout and keeping him clean will be a problem as he has been sacked three times or more in each of the last seven games. While this game is being played closer to home for Bowling Green, any advantage of having a home crowd on its side is minimal as there will be no one at this game. New Mexico St. had to play a non-scheduled game against Valparaiso of the FCS to get a special bowl waiver since two of its victories were against FCS teams but nonetheless, the Aggies are bowling for the first time since 2017 as head coach Jerry Kill has done an outstanding job in his first season, taking a program to the postseason that had not finished better than 3-10 since 2018, going 8-30 over that stretch. They have played a softer schedule but face an opponent right at their level and getting a favorable number. The Aggies are ranked No. 37 in the country in Points Per Opportunity which is based on getting inside the opponents 40-yard line and the Bowling Green defense has struggled defending that as it is ranked No. 100 in defensive Points Per Opportunity. Here, we play against teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points. This situation is 131-69 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (235) New Mexico St. Aggies

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. This is going to be a very public play which we despise but they do come through at times and we are giving Tampa Bay another shot this week after it blew a 17-0 lead against the Bengals as turnovers and penalties at the wrong time led to Cincinnati scoring 34 unanswered points to pull away. The Buccaneers did outplay Cincinnati from a statistical standpoint as they won the yardage battle by 159 total yards but not many teams are going to win when turning the ball over four times. This line has shot up considerably since opening at 3.5 but that is not a concern with this play as we are finally expecting that break out Tampa Bay game that we have really yet to see this season with the biggest two wins coming in the first two weeks of the season. Last week, the Bengals made the adjustments with the most notable applying more pressure to Tom Brady and it worked and with Cincinnati ranked No. 9 in pressure rating, Tampa Bay has faced three straight teams ranked No. 15 or better in pressure and that will be far from the case here with Arizona near the bottom of the league in that category. The Cardinals have completely bottomed out as the loss of Kyler Murray three plays into the New England game was their last shot to be competitive. They have lost four straight games and last week at Denver proved that as they allowed 24 points to the Broncos which was just the fourth time Denver has surpassed 20 points this season and the offense was absolutely useless. Arizona managed just 240 yards of offense and while that was one of the better defenses in the NFL, it will be facing another one here. Trace McSorley came in for an injured Colt McCoy and was ineffective and while he is getting a full week with the first team at practice in prep for this game, he will be outmatched again. Tampa Bay is No. 7 in total defense and they bring in the No. 10 ranked pressure rate and can easily keep this offense in check. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 68-35 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The Raiders were on the fortunate side of that Patriots game as they completed an improbable win on the last play of the game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. This is a very tough spot coming off that victory with a long travel assignment and Las Vegas has struggled on the road as it is 2-6 and both of those wins easily could have been losses as they both came in overtime. That is part of three of their last four wins being walk off victories so the 6-8 record could be even worse but to their credit, they also possess some close defeats. The offense is ranked No. 11 both overall and in scoring but has a tough task here facing a defense that is playing its best on the season. The Raiders own defense is an issue as they are ranked No. 24 overall and No. 23 in scoring and while not facing a great offense here, they have allowed even worse offenses to look good against them at times earlier this season. The Steelers are coming off a win at Carolina to match the Raiders 6-8 record to keep their own playoff hopes alive and their road is a lot easier as they have Baltimore and Cleveland left after this. It has been a good turnaround as Pittsburgh is 4-2 in its last six games following a 2-6 start and the overall record is more impressive considering the Steelers have played the No. 1 ranked schedule in the league. Five of their eight losses came by one possession and two other losses came at Buffalo and at Philadelphia. The return of T.J. Watt has changed this defense completely as they are now again able to apply a lot of pressure and that will be the difference here as they have allowed only 16.3 over their last four games. 10* (474) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Two fairly even teams square off on Christmas Eve in Hawaii and we are getting value in this line with the Blue Raiders. Middle Tennessee St. closed the season with three straight wins to finish 7-5 and while those came against some weak competition, it matches up well here. The offense was middle of the pack as the passing game led the way. Quarterback Chase Cunningham completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 2,920 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions to lead a passing attack that is ranked No. 31 in the country. Now while they face a San Diego St. defense that has only allowed 206.6 ypg which was good for No. 35, those came mostly against teams in the MWC that had no semblance of a passing game with five teams ranked in the bottom 15 in the country in passing offense. A passing game that has an edge even though the stats do not state that from the top line is even better when that teams is a significant underdog. San Diego St. also finished the season 7-5 with just two solid wins against Toledo and San Jose St. as the other four FBS wins came against teams a combined 12-37. The offense was one of the worst in the country as the Aztecs averaged 321.8 ypg and 21.3 ppg, No. 117 and No. 109 in the country respectively and while it did improve over the second half of the season with a quarterback change, it was not overwhelming. Jalen Mayden, who is a converted safety, completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions so he did not light it up and actually regressed after teams got film on him. He was sacked 15 times in seven games and will be facing a solid Middle Tennessee St. defensive line that registered 34 sacks and while the defense was next to last in passing defense, there is not much worry here and the strength of the San Diego St. offense will be negated by the Blue Raiders No. 27 ranked rushing defense. 10* (233) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Game of the Year. Give Houston credit for having a chance to win its last two games against Kansas City and Dallas but came up just short in both and that puts the Texans in a bad letdown spot. They lost in overtime against the Chiefs but it was definitely misleading as Houston was dominated, getting outgained by 282 total yards as the offense managed only 219 total yards and 15 first downs. This came after a last possession loss against the Cowboys where it was outgained there as well and it has now been five straight games where the Texans have been outgained with the offense going over 300 total yards just once and have averaged just 237.4 ypg over that stretch. Houston possesses the worst total offense in the league and is ranked No. 27 or worse in seven of the eight major statistical categories. This includes being dead last in rushing defense which is not ideal in this spot as it should get pounded on the ground. They are getting outgained by over 72 ypg on the road including close to 67 ypg on the ground. Houston is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams allowing 90 or fewer rushing ypg. Tennessee looked to have the AFC South wrapped up not too long ago but has lost four straight games which has brought Jacksonville right back into the mix as the Titans are in first place by just one game over the Jaguars. The schedule was in their favor early on but during this four-game skid, all have come against teams currently sitting in definite or possible playoff spots and that does include a loss against Jacksonville two weeks ago which could make the Week 18 matchup at Jacksonville for the division. The Titans need this game for that reason especially with a home game against Dallas on deck and with the recent struggles, there is no chance to take Houston lightly. This offense has struggled all season but this is the best matchup it has seen over its last eight games going back to the first meeting with Houston where it outgained the Texans by 193 total yards which made that seven-point win a deceiving one as well with the Texans scoring a meaningless touchdown with 17 seconds left. The Titans are ranked No. 5 in offensive touchdown red zone percentage and that is important here to pull this game wide open. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The run of Detroit is one of the top stories in the NFL as after a 1-6 start to the season, the Lions have won six of their last seven games while covering all of those games with the only outright loss coming against Buffalo on Thanksgiving by three points. Now, the Lions are in unfamiliar territory as they are laying points on the road for the first time this season and for the first time since 2020, a span of 20 games on the highway. It has not been a very dominating run however as Detroit has been outgained in four of these seven games including two of the three games that have been on the road. The offense was humming along with 31 or more points in four of five games before scoring just 20 points last week against a solid Jets defense and Detroit will face another good defense this week. The NFC South is a mess and Carolina is right in that mess as the Panthers are still alive for the playoffs despite their 5-9 record. It is plain and simple as if they win out, they win the division with an 8-9 record with next week being the real deciding game when they go to Tampa Bay but they are certainly not looking past this game. Carolina has gone 3-2 over its last five games to get into this situation and it needs to be emphasized that the two losses came against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, two defenses that have been playing at a high level and that is something that Detroit cannot claim. The Panthers offense has been bad all season but against this defense, quarterback P.J. Walker and the solid running game have the possibility for a big game, similar to what they did against the Falcons in both meetings that have taken place over their last seven games. 10* (458) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Saturday Ultimate Underdog. New England cannot be coming off a worst loss as it look like it was going to actually win before a controversial scoring call and then that lateral debacle on the final play. That is tough to recover from but the Patriots are still in the playoff hunt and a return home should get them energized again. They have the toughest remaining stretch of any team vying for a playoff spot as the combined record of their three final opponents is 29-13 so it is going to take their best mini stretch of the season along with getting some help. New England has lost three of four but two of those games could have and should have gone their as two really bad calls went against them. The Patriots defense is what needs to keep them into this game and it should as the unit is ranked No. 6 in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense while sitting in the top ten both against the run and pass. Cincinnati keeps rolling along following a win over the Buccaneers last week to improve to 10-4 which put the Bengals a game up on the Ravens atop the AFC North and they have been one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won 10 of 12 games following a 0-2 start and they are 11-1 ATS over that stretch which is easily the best run in the league. Following back-to-back home wins against the Chiefs and a divisional win over the Browns, and then the come-from-behind win against Tampa Bay last week, this is an awful spot but the public still obviously loves them. The Bengals are laying the same number they did last week which is flawed as the Patriots are a better team than the Buccaneers but it is based on recency bias and the linemakers had to put the line this high. 10* (460) New England Patriots

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Wake Forest was a ranked team in late October but it closed the season with losses in four of its last five games to finish the regular season 7-5. It will be out to close the season strong and the roster is fully on board as it is just a little more intact with no optouts and quarterback Sam Hartman is the key piece as he easily could have to get ready for the NFL Draft but chose the noble move to end his five-year career here and play in the final bowl game. Wake Forest has the No. 10 ranked passing offense and will be facing a strong Missouri defense but it will be down heading into this game. The defense was shredded many times this season but those were against alite offenses and that will not be the case here. Missouri has momentum in its favor, having won its last two games to clinch a bowl berth but it struggled for the most part against good teams, going 1-4 against FBS teams with a winning record. Missouri was not hit too hard with the transfer portal but did lose top receiver Dominic Lovett which will hurt an already anemic passing offense and the Tigers will also be missing some key pieces on the defensive line. While dual-threat quarterback Brady Cook will be difficult to contain, if this game turns into a shootout, his throwing ability will not be able to keep up. The Missouri defense struggles when facing off against elite slot receivers and Wake Forest has two of the best in the ACC in Taylor Morin and Ke'Shawn Williams. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (231) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. We were waiting for the official news of Jets quarterback Mike White to see what sort of line would be established and the Jets are in good shape to snap its three-game losing streak and remain in playoff contention. Currently, New York is tied with New England on the outside looking in at 7-7, one game behind the Chargers and Dolphins so this has turned into a must win with this being the last home game and two games remaining on the road against playoff contenders Seattle and Miami. Zach Wilson was inserted back into the lineup last week and while he was far from great, he was not horrible, throwing for 317 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He gave the Jets the lead but the defense allowed the game-winning 51-yard touchdown pass with 1:49 remaining. That defense is still extremely solid as they are ranked No. 3 overall, No. 4 in passing, No. 11 in rushing and No. 5 in scoring so now it is up to the offense to get going and this is a good spot to do so. Jacksonville was a winner for us last week as the Jaguars scored on a pick six in overtime to defeat Dallas and keep their division hopes alive. They have won four of their last six games with both of those losses coming on the road where they are 2-5 and while their offense is starting to peak, they have a tough road test here. Trevor Lawrence has come into his own recently as five of his last six games has seen him post a passer rating of 106 or higher while throwing for 14 touchdowns and just one interception. He will have problems here though, especially playing on a short week with travel involved. The Jacksonville defense has been the liability as it is ranked No. 27 overall and No. 21 in scoring and its passing defense has been the real issue with a No. 29 ranking so this is the spot for White. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (452) New York Jets

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Air Force comes into Thursday following four straight victories to close the regular season and finished in a three-way tie for second place in the MWC Mountain Division. A win over Baylor would give the Falcons a 10-win season for the second consecutive year and the fifth time over the last 16 seasons which is saying something for a service academy program. Air Force is 9-3 with the three losses coming against Wyoming, Utah St. and Boise St., all bowl teams, all by one possession and two of those being true road games. The solid record shows in the stats as the Falcons possess the top ranked rushing game in the country as they cause fits for most teams and will do so here against a team that fired its defensive coordinator at the end of the regular season. The flexbone offense has three productive backs so defenses cannot key on one particular player while getting confused by the numerous counters and fakes. Baylor has lost three straight games, albeit all against ranked teams, so it comes in with little momentum and after high expectations coming into the season, it has been a disappointing one at 6-6. The Bears have an above average offense led by quarterback Blake Shapen who has been wildly inconsistent especially down the stretch. Over his last four games, he has three touchdowns and five interceptions and none of those games came against a defense ranked in the top 50. Now, Baylor goes up against the top ranked defense in the country and the Falcons are great at both levels as they are No. 1 against the pass and No. 3 against the run and while this can be attributed to facing the fewest snaps by far, they are still No. 13 in yards per play allowed. Because of leading the country in time of possession, the defense is fresh throughout the game which leads to its great success. 10* (227) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. South Alabama is coming off its best season since entering the FBS in 2012 as it posted its best winning percentage after going 10-2 with the two losses coming by a combined five points against UCLA and Troy so it is no surprise the Jaguars come in as the favorite. Half of its wins came by one possession so things could have gone worse as the Jaguars have the No. 12 ranked Luck Factor Rating so deep analytics can tell a different story. They have a good but not great offense as they are ranked No. 40 or worse in all categories and while facing a below average defense, the Hilltoppers improved immensely on that side of the ball over the second half of the season. The Hilltoppers closed the season with wins in three of their last four games with the only loss at Auburn and they won the yardage battle in all of those contests. Western Kentucky was on the other side of the Luck Factor Ratings as they have been unfortunate coming in ranked No. 117. South Alabama comes in with a with a very solid defense but the one liability is the passing defense where it allows 215.8 ypg which is ranked No. 52 and while not horrible, it has a horrible matchup. The Hilltoppers bring in the No. 2 ranked passing offense and they are fortunate to be at full strength. They are led by transfer quarterback Austin Reed who was named C-USA Newcomer of the Year after throwing for 4,249 yards and 36 touchdowns, which are ranked No. 2 and No 4 in the country respectively. They are fortunate as Reed initially entered the transfer portal in hoping to go to Louisville but has since reversed course and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. The rushing offense is not as good but the passing game has done enough to bring in the No. 10 ranked total offense and No. 18 ranked scoring offense. The Jaguars earlier faced Georgia Southern who came in with the No. 6 ranked passing offense and they were lit up by quarterback Kyle Vantrease yet escaped with a 14-point come-from-behind win. 10* (226) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the SAN JOSE ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. San Jose St. comes in as a relatively short favorite hear which is based on its 0-6 ATS stretch to close the season as the public rides those streaks while those are the ones we go against. San Jose St. comes in with two key edges in the quarterback matchup and the defensive advantage. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, an All-Mountain West second-team selection has thrown for 2,885 yards with 20 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The offense overall has not been great but it has been efficient as the Spartans are No. 4 in the country in turnover margin as they have only turned the ball over six times all season while the defense has grabbed 18 takeaways. Corderio has led an offense that is No. 34 in passing and while facing a tough passing defense, he should be just fine here. The Spartans are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. Eastern Michigan brings in a similar offense overall but it is way down the ranks in both rushing and passing so it does not flourish in any one area. The Eagles are No. 86 in passing offense and No. 74 in rushing offense and they have a bad matchup here. Defensively, the Spartans are No. 25 overall and No. 22 in points allowed as they are a great pressure team and have the ability to get into the opponent backfield. San Jose St. in ranked No. 5 with 36 sacks on the season, led by defensive linemen Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall which will be playing on Sunday in the near future, and the Eagles are ranked No. 85 in pass protection after giving up 30 sacks. Expect San Jose St. to be under pressure all day with quarterback Taylor Powell under duress. The Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games. This situation is 55-21 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (222) San Jose St. Spartans

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Rams are coming off a big come-from-behind win over Las Vegas last Thursday as Baker Mayfield propelled Los Angeles despite being with the team for just two days. Now that he has had time to get into the playbook, many will expect a good effort on that side of the ball but there is still very little to work with because of numerous players out. The offense has managed to average only 266.3 ypg over their last three games and we cannot see them keeping up here. Even with the extra time off, the Rams defense also continue to be plagued with injuries. Defensive lineman Aaron Donald (ankle), defensive tackle Marquise Copeland (ankle), linebacker Travin Howard (hip) and defensive back David Long Jr. (groin) have all been ruled out. The Rams are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Green Bay is coming off its bye week which came later than it would have liked but it was good timing for its quarterback situation as Aaron Rodgers was a full participant in practice this week for all three practices, a first since his thumb injury against the New York Giants. The Packers are back home the first time in a month following a pair of road games prior to the bye where they are 3-2. The offense has struggled to score points consistently but Green Bay is still ranked in the top half of the league in total offense, rushing offense and passing offense and facing a depleted defense is just what it needs to cure the scoring woes. The weather is in their favor as according to PFR, the Rams have played five games with a kickoff temperature of 15 or colder in their whole existence, the last coming in 1992. Green Bay is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. 10* (332) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Monday Enforcer. In their first season under of head coach Jim Mora, the Huskies are back in a bowl for the first time since 2015 and have a chance for their first winning season since 2010. There is a ton of motivation for this program but this is not a good matchup. We played against Connecticut in its final game of the regular season and while it won the overall yardage battle, Army controlled the game with its rushing attack as it gained 320 yards on 5.5 ypc. Connecticut is ranked No. 88 in rushing defense and while the Marshall running game is a difference scheme than that of the Black Knights, it is still a powerful one. The Thundering Herd are No. 21 in rushing offense led by Khalan Labon and his 1,423 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns while freshman quarterback Cam Fancher has done a solid job taking over for an injured Henri Colombi and has led a balanced attack where he has also utilize his legs. On the other side, the Huskies rely solely on their running game as they are a solid No. 32 in rushing offense but have no passing game to speak of and that is a problem here. The Thundering Herd have the No. 5 rushing defense in the country so Connecticut will have a hard time getting anything going on the ground and relying on freshman quarterback Zion Turner is a problem as he has not been as effective as his counterpart as he has thrown for only 1,242 yards on the entire season while throwing just nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. It has been a nice story for the Huskies but playing a soft Independent schedule helped as they are ranked just No. 132 in the current ratings and are ranked below many teams with losing records. This will be a boring game with a lot of running on both sides with Marshall having the ability to control the line of scrimmage from start to finish. 10* (220) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Cincinnati keeps rolling along following a win over the Browns last week to improve to 9-4 which kept the Bengals tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North but are now a half-game up following the Baltimore loss Saturday and they have been one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won nine of 11 games following a 0-2 start and they are 10-1 ATS over that stretch which is easily the best run in the league. Following back-to-back home wins against the Chiefs and then a division rival, this is an awful spot against a team no one wants to touch. Cincinnati is 4-3 on the road which includes no quality win. That begs the question is Tampa Bay a quality team? The Buccaneers are coming off a brutal loss against San Francisco following a last second win over the Saints and an overtime loss against Browns so they are stuck in a bad place but this still one of the better rosters in the league. The offense has not been able to get much going with Tom Brady but they have been so close and they are facing a passing defense that has struggled as the Bengals are No. 20 in the NFL in passing defense. Get some sort of rushing game going and they will be good. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and after three consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against a team with forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (328) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. Dallas is a massive public favorite this week based on the short line and who it is playing based on name which makes this another great contrarian spot. The Cowboys are on a four-game winning streak that includes three straight home wins and that alone is a tough spot playing on the road for the first time in a month. Dallas is 7-1 at home and get that extra home game based on the new schedules and get the Eagles there next week but come in only 3-2 on the highway with two of those wins coming against the overrated Giants and Vikings and the other against the hapless Rams. We cannot count out Jacksonville just yet. With a 2-1 record over its next three games coupled with a 1-2 Tennessee run in its next three games means a Week 18 showdown will decide the division based on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jaguars got into this spot with a 36-22 win over Tennessee last week on the road and while up and down, they are coming together when it counts with a 3-2 record over their last five games which followed a five-game losing streak but those were all decided by one possession so their record could be flipped right now. Here, we play on home teams in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (322) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We are going contrarian here with the Bears as they are coming off a bye week which makes them in a healthy spot, notably quarterback Justin Fields who was at one point possibly to have been shut down for the season and he is capable of another big game here. The Bears have lost six straight games but won the yardage battle in half of those including a +52-yard edge in the last game against Green Bay and it knows how to play to it strength which is in the running game. Chicago has the No. 1 rushing offense in the league and Fields is a big part of that and that can be exploited here against an Eagles defense that allows 6.8 ypc against opposing quarterbacks which is worst in the NFL and getting that to go along with a significant home underdog to shorten a game is ideal. The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season against Washington and followed that up with poor effort at Indianapolis but they have rebounded with three straight dominating wins and are pretty much locked in for the top seed in the NFC. This is a tough spot coming off a big divisional win against the Giants with the Cowboys on deck and they have not been exactly dominating on the road of late and getting out of here healthy with a vanilla win, especially with this being the second of three straight road games. Here, we play against favorites outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yppl, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 58-18 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (318) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Fresno St. had a rough start to the season as it opened 1-4 due to the loss of starting quarterback Jake Haener but his return brought a resurgence as the Bulldogs closed the season with six straight wins as the defense also picked it up late. Haener has thrown for 2,616 yards on 72.6 percent completions while throwing 18 touchdowns and only three picks and has an ideal matchup here. This line has done a big flip but justifiably so with the Cougars taking a big hit with absences. Washington St. is down some key players and personnel heading into its bowl game. Wide receivers De'Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie and middle linebackers Francisco Mauigoa and Travion Brown went into the transfer portal. But the biggest one is outside linebacker Daiyan Henley, an All-Pac-12 first-team selection, opted out of the LA Bowl to declare for the NFL draft. Additionally, defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for Arizona St. early this month while offensive coordinator Eric Morris left the team to take over the head coaching job at North Texas. The transfer portal has done a number on a bunch of teams and Washington St. has been one of the most affected and scrambling in an early bowl game makes it more demanding. The Cougars had won three straight games before getting pummeled by Washington in the Apple Cup to close the regular season. Here, we play on teams after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by 17 or more points. This situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (211) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The Vikings had their run come to an end last week against the Lions but it has not been a good run overall despite all of the winning. While going 3-2 over its last five games, Minnesota was outgained in all of those games and while the public will be all over them here in a bounce back situation, this is a tram that cannot be trusted. The Vikings have been outgained by over 60 ypg which is unheard of for a team that is 10-3 and the NFL Luck Factor ratings are still led by Minnesota and by a wide margin and the scoring differential tells the real story as its -1-point scoring differential is the lowest by any 10-win team in NFL history. The defense is horrible as Minnesota is ranked dead last overall and in passing yards allowed. Indianapolis won in Las Vegas in the coaching debut of Jeff Saturday but has lost three straight since then but it has not been awful as the Colts have been outgained by only 46.3 ypg during this losing streak. Following their 33-point defensive meltdown against the Cowboys, the Colts had their bye week and while the roster seems depleted, having that week off got a lot of players back in the rotation. Matt Ryan has been a lawn chair but he is facing by far the worst defense he has seen since back as the starting quarterback and this is a game we should see Jonathan Taylor get his third 100-yard rushing performance this season. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. This situation is 24-7 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (307) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFC West Game of the Month. The early opener for this game was San Francisco -1 and has quickly gone to -3.5 with all of the early money coming in on the 49ers and this line will likely only go up more from here as there is not a more public betting team in the NFL right now with Cincinnati a distant second as San Francisco has been all over the national limelight. The 49ers improved to 9-4 after an absolute rout of Tampa Bay in the first start for Brock Purdy to make it six straight wins but the schedule could not have been more favorable. The streak opened with a win at the hapless Rams on October 30 and that has been the last true road game they have played as four of their last five games have been at home with the other coming in Mexico City. Purdy now makes his first road start in one of the toughest environments in the league against a team in need of keeping its season alive. San Francisco has the No. 1 total defense, scoring defense and rushing defense and is the real deal but will have a road test here. The Seahawks have taken a step back with losses in three of their last four games but all three of those losses were winnable as all were by one possession and this has turned into a big game at the wrong time with the recent 49ers domination. Seattle has fallen back from being a likely playoff team to now having to deal with the Giants, Commanders and Lions for the final two spots in the NFC with those four teams separated by a game and a half. Seattle remains home where it is 3-3 and does have two more home games after this so the schedule in in its favor with nine home games and just seven road games with a neutral game mixed in there. The Seahawks are on a 0-4 run against the number so we cannot ask for a better spot especially with Pete Carroll on the sidelines as he has thrived here in Seattle going 20-8 ATS as a home underdog, 17-5 ATS at home revenging a loss and 14-3 ATS against teams 3.5 or less ypc. Historical trends are typically meaningless but these are something to definitely take into account. 10* (302) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The season is on the line for both teams here and despite the recent struggles for the Cardinals on their home field, they are in a good matchup with both sides of the ball having edges where they count. Arizona is 4-8 including a 1-5 record at home and going back it is 1-10 in its last 11 games at home but this season, the Cardinals have outgained three of six opponents here and two of those that they did not were against Kansas city and Seattle. One big edge on offense is Kyler Murray as there is one problem that Bill Belichick's defenses have struggled with for a while and that would be defending quarterbacks that can run. That has been the case this season as they have struggled against Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Josh Allen which resulted in losses to Baltimore, Chicago and Buffalo respectively and those were all on their home field. Defensively, the Cardinals are excellent against the rush as they are No. 11 and Rhamondre Stevenson was ineffective last week against the Bills and could struggle again here. The passing defense has not been as good but Arizona applies a lot of pressure on the quarterback and that is a big factor here as Mac Jones does not have the ability to make plays when under pressure as he has completed only 43.8 percent of his passes with one touchdown and five interceptions. Overall, the defensive numbers are not great but the quarterbacks they have lost to are Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Herbert and Geno Smith. Sorry Mac, you are not close to being in that group. There are a lot of historic numbers, angles and trends that are on the Patriots side but last we looked, Tom Brady is no longer there. Looking at the raw power rankings and with home field added in, the wrong team is favored here. 10* (128) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Miami is coming off a poor loss last week against San Francisco as it scored on its first play from scrimmage but was shutdown pretty much the rest of the way as after that 75-yard touchdown, and another 45-yard touchdown, the Dolphins managed only 188 total yards elsewhere. This looks to be a good bounce back spot against a struggling team but it is not going to be as easy as some may think and despite having a two-game better record, Miami could be considered a false favorite here based on power rankings, namely the Sagarin rating that have these teams dead even not taking into account any home field advantage with in fairness, is basically nothing for Los Angeles. The defense is below average and after getting beat up by Brock Purdy, they have a much worse matchup here. This is a tough spot as Miami stayed in Los Angeles which is good for travel but kept them out of their normal routine as far as facilities and familiarity. The Chargers have lost three of their last four games to level out at 6-6 on the season and this is a massive game to stay in the playoff picture not only for the win but the quality victory for strength of wins if it comes down to a tiebreaker. The offense is ranked No. 13 overall and No. 14 in scoring and it is this low because of injuries, namely to wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams but both are finally heathy at the same time as this will be just the fourth time all season they will be active and playing together and this is a massive upgrade for the offense. The big weakness of the defense is against the run which happens to be the weakness for the Dolphins offense so the strength of the secondary will make it a tough matchup again for an injured Tua Tagovailoa. Here, we play against favorites with a poor turnover defense forcing one or less tpg, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (120) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC North Game of the Month. We have won and covered the last two games with the Vikings but they have been a team that can take years off your life. From a situational standpoint, they would be the play here by going against the Detroit cover streak but the bounces will eventually betray them and we feel this is that spot. Minnesota is coming off three straight home games and was outgained in all of those and by an average of 175 ypg so the fact it won those last two games is certainly fortunate but we think it is now time to jump ship. The Vikings are 3-1 on the road and were outgained in two of those and in the two they won the yardage battle, it was by 6 and 38 yards. The NFL Luck Factor ratings are still led by Minnesota and by a wide margin and the scoring differential tells the real story as its +10 point scoring differential is the lowest by any 10-win team in NFL history. Detroit has played its way back into the playoff picture in the NFC as it is now 5-7 after wins in four of its last five games with the lone loss coming against Buffalo by just a field goal on Thanksgiving. While Minnesota has won all of the close games, the Lions have been on the opposite side of that as of those seven losses, five have come by four points or less with four of those taking place at home and this is a statement game for Detroit. Those Luck Factor rating are not on their side as the Lions are No. 20 and while these analytics typically only talk about the past and not about future performance, as we all know, things come back to the median to at least a limited degree. The Lions defense remains one of the worst in the league and this is a tough matchup there but the offense makes up for it as Detroit is now No. 7 overall and No. 6 in scoring and if this game is won, the Lions are looing good the rest of the way with the last four games including three losing teams and the Jets. 10* (106) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Cincinnati is coming off a big win against Kansas City last week to improve to 8-4 which kept the Bengals tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North and they have been one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won eight of 10 games following a 0-2 start and they are 9-1 ATS over that stretch which is easily the best run in the league. Both of those streaks along with a high-profile win against the Chiefs is putting the public all over Cincinnati as 73 percent of the money has come in on the Bengals yet the line has not budged. Red flag. They are the No. 5 total offense in the NFL and No. 7 in scoring but are facing a tough defense that brings a lot of pressure which can hurt this offensive line which has done a good job of keeping Joe Burrow upright after a poor start. Cleveland won in Houston last week as Deshaun Watson made his season debut and he was awful but that was expected in his first action in over a season and a half and with the nerves and anxiety out of the way, we should see a much better performance this week. The Browns are just 2-4 on the road which includes a bad loss against Miami but two of those losses were by three points with the other coming against Buffalo in Detroit. We expect another rush heavy gameplan as the Browns possess the No. 4 ranked rushing offense and face off against a rather average rushing defense and an overall average stop unit. The difference in the records are just three games which is not a large enough variance to constitute this line in a divisional game as linesmakers have been forced to inflate it which still is not keeping the public off. Here, we play against home teams (averaging 7.3 or more ypa and after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games going up against teams averaging between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Rams have lost six straight games and their season is definitely over but they are now getting value as they covered last week and they are getting nearly the same amount of points this week as they did last week against the Seahawks despite the Raiders being two games worse than Seattle. The loss of Matthew Stafford has certainly hurt the offense as John Wolford was not great against the Seahawks but the second game after getting thrown into the lineup typically goes better and the Raiders do not possess a intimidating defense where they can shut him down. The best outcome last week was Cam Akers having a game after being nonexistent for most of the season and they can rely on him and overall, the Rams rushed for 171 yards on 33 carries (5.2 ypc). The defense should get Aaron Donald back and the unit has still played well as they are No. 14 overall including No. 4 against the rush and can bottle up a resurgent Josh Jacobs. The Raiders were embarrassed at home against the Colts in the coaching debut of Jeff Saturday but they have won three straight games since then but two of those were in overtime and could be in for a letdown following a rival win over the Chargers last week. Their playoff hopes remain intact as Las Vegas is currently in tenth place, two games behind the Jets for the final Wild Card spot. It has been a tough schedule of late as this is the fifth road game over their last seven games and while the distance has not been an issue, it is simply the logistics of traveling. Las Vegas does possess a top ten offense but that goes against the strength of the Rams while the defense is ranked No. 27 overall and No. 26 in points allowed which goes against the Rams weakness so this is not a very favorable matchup where they can be dominant in any one area. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss at Cleveland last week and will be a popular play this week in a bounce back spot but in the first two instances this season coming off a loss following a win prior to that, the Buccaneers lost a second straight game so it is no automatic rebound victory. It has been a bad season for Tampa Bay which is pretty apparent as this offense has been inefficient in getting the ball into the end zone. The Buccaneers have scored more than 22 points only once and they are No. 27 in the league in scoring offense. The passing game has been fine but Tampa Bay is dead last in the league in rushing offense and this is not a good matchup against the Saints defense. New Orleans is ranked No. 7 in passing defense and it allowed only 188 yards passing in the first meeting and that is one of seven times this season the Saints have allowed fewer than 200 yards passing. They get a ton of pressure on the quarterback as the Saints are No. 7 in sack percentage and it gets heightened here against an immobile quarterback. New Orleans is coming off a shutout loss at San Francisco last week which is always a good spot to play on in the next game and it will be catching a depleted Tampa Bay secondary as safety Mike Edwards, safety Antoine Winfield Jr, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting listed as doubtful or questionable. Andy Dalton could have a short leash which has already been lengthened way too long. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games against teams averaging 235 or more passing ypg. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (477) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Bengals get to host this rematch of the AFC Championship from last season. Cincinnati has won seven of its last nine games to pull into a tie with Baltimore for first place in the AFC North and it has done so by playing seven of its first 11 games on the road. The Bengals are 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming against the Steelers in Week One as they lost the turnover battle 5-0 with all three wins coming by blowout. The offense gets a huge weapon back as Ja'Marr Chase missed the last four games after a hip injury put him on IR but he returns this week and while the Bengals offense was fine without him, his return only adds to this dynamic offense, one that Kansas City has not seen during its recent five-game stretch. Cincinnati has a very underrated defense that does not get a lot of talk because it lacks any big names but is ranked in the top half of the league in all major statistical categories. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games against teams allowing 235 or more passing ypg. The Chiefs have won five straight games to remain atop the AFC as they have basically gone through the motions which shows how good they obviously are. Kansas City is ranked No. 1 in the NFL in scoring offense and total offense and will definitely see a different defense than it saw last season but it is the other side that is the concern. During the Chiefs five-game winning streak, they have allowed 18.8 ppg but have not faced an offense of this strength with the 49ers offense being the best of that group as they are currently ranked No. 9 and that is only due to a recent resurgence after playing Kansas City. The Chiefs are 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last three games. Here, we play against road favorites outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yppl, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (474) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Miami has won five straight games to improve to 8-3 on the season and have control in the AFC East but there is a lot of football left and this is a very good litmus test with those five recent wins coming against some poor teams. The Dolphins are in a good spot here as if any team is going to come in with a master gameplan, it is them with head coach Mike McDaniel who came over from the 49ers so he knows this team more than any other opposing coach with him just being in San Francisco last season. Tua Tagovailoa has been outstanding since returning from his concussion as in his five starts, he has three games with a passer rating of 135 or higher and in those games overall, he has passed 1,529 yards (305.8 per game average) with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. And what makes him so dangerous is that he is the best play action quarterback in the league and he can keep the best defense in the league off balance. The Dolphins are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The 49ers are playing just as good with a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who is playing at a high level as well but like Miami, the schedule has not been overly difficult. Over their four-game winning streak, the 49ers best win came over the Chargers and they won it by only six points against a team that was severely banged up. Speaking of banged up, San Francisco, which was getting healthy once again, is now going through injuries again, namely on offense with Garoppolo, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell all on the injury report with Mitchell being the only definite player out but none of the other three will be at 100 percent. The Dolphins defense has been playing a lot better since early struggles and they can hold their own here. 10* (469) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Minnesota picked up a win on Thanksgiving over New England as it bounced back from that blowout home loss against Dallas and this marks the third straight home game for the Vikings and they have the advantage of playing with extended rest. That game against the Cowboys was just the third time over their last nine games they have scored fewer than 28 points and playing a tough defense has been commonplace of late as they have faced defenses ranked No. 4, No. 7, No. 8 and No. 12 over their last four games and have had success with the exception of that Dallas game. Despite the 9-2 record, the Vikings are not getting the public money here as the Jets are the new public darling and that is keeping this line down and even though the luck factor has been on their side, this is a good spot for that possible breakout game. The Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. A quarterback change did the Jets right as New York replaced Zach Wilson with Mike White and he was outstanding with 315 yards on 22-28 passing with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The came against a depleted Bears defense and now New York hits the road where it is 4-1 on the season but all four wins came against teams that are not going to be seeing the postseason. This will be a tough environment for White and while he will be facing a below average defense, the situation is not ideal. The Jets defense has been sensational of late as they have allowed 14.4 ppg over their last eight games and they have moved to No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 5 in total defense but this will be a major test. The Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 375 or more ypg. 10* (452) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Game of the Month. Clemson came up small for us last week in a 31-30 loss against South Carolina as the passing game was non-existent with just 99 yards through the air which negated another great game from the rushing attack. With that defeat, the Tigers are out of the CFP picture but they would have been out nevertheless as they did not get any needed help from other teams last week. Now, the goal is to regain the ACC Championship title that they held for six consecutive years before Pittsburgh won it in 2021. While the offense struggled through the air, the Tigers rushed for 237 yards against the Gamecocks, the fourth time in the last five games they have surpassed 200 rushing yards. They face a North Carolina defense that is very bad at all levels that will get lit up here. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei was just 8-29 through the air but head coach Dabo Swinney gave him the vote of confidence as he will start this week. The secondary gave up over 350 yards passing to South Carolina and that is concerning with Drake Maye and the high-powered Tar Heels offense on deck and we should see a better effort in this rebound spot. Defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin knows getting his group back with the right mindset will be key, and early on he has liked the way the unit has responded. Since claiming the ACC Coastal Division title three weeks ago, and knowing the ACC championship matchup with Clemson was forthcoming, North Carolina lost its final two games of the regular season so that is not the momentum it wants coming into this game. there is not a whole lot to say about this team as it is very transparent with a great offense and an awful defense and both matchups are not in their favor this week especially against a Clemson team out for blood after having its 40-game home winning streak come to an end. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging 4.8 or more ypc and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game going up against teams allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (321) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Tulane captured the AAC regular season championship with its victory at Cincinnati last Saturday, snapping the Bearcats 32-game home winning streak, and closed the season with a perfect 5-0 record on the road. They return home where the Green Wave get to host the championship game in looking to add to their 5-2 record at Yulman Stadium. One loss came against Southern Mississippi by three points despite outgaining the Golden Eagles 198 total yards with the difference being allowing an interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The other defeat came against these Knights 38-31 in a game Tulane never led so there will be plenty of motivation in addition to its first ever AAC Championship. Head coach Willie Fritz has led the Green Wave to only their second double-digit win campaign in program history that runs 118 seasons so this has been a special one and the fear of him leaving is gone as it was announced Tuesday that he will be around amid rumors he was leaving for Georgia Tech. Tulane is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Central Florida was in the championship game no matter the result of the Tulane/Cincinnati game as it defeated both and it limped in to end the regular season with a loss against Navy and then a seven-point win against South Florida as a 19.5-point favorite. Going through the motions was probably inevitable and while the Knights come in riding a three-game road winning streak, all of those wins were by one possession and this is a tough travel spot with this being their fourth road game in five weeks. They will expect to see a better defensive effort from Tulane this time around as they put up 336 yards rushing in the first meeting but 67 of those yards came on one play. Central Florida 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points revenging an upset loss against opponent as a home favorite, off a win by seven points or less over a conference rival. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (314) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Boise St. came away with a win last week against Utah St. in one of the craziest endings of the season that got the Broncos the cover and they bring in a three-game winning streak into the championship game. They rolled to an 8-0 record in the conference with all four home wins coming by at least 19 points. Boise St. is 5-1 at home with the lone loss coming against BYU that was decided on an acrobatic catch by the Cougars and played into their victory. Offensively, the Broncos are ranked No. 28 in rushing offense and racked up a season high 316 yards on the ground in the regular season meeting and should go off again against a Fresno St. rushing defense ranked No. 95 that allows 4.9 ypc on the road. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fresno St. comes in on a heater as it has won seven straight games to win the MWC West Division by two games over San Diego St. and San Jose St. The Bulldogs went 3-3 on the road with the three wins coming within the conference against teams that finished 3-21 in the MVC. The best news for Fresno St. is that is has a healthy Jake Haener at quarterback as he missed four games but the bad news is the defense they will be facing. Haener faced just two defenses that were ranked inside the top 40 and those resulted in a loss to Oregon St. and a narrow midseason win over San Diego St. were he totaled only four touchdowns and had two of his three interceptions on the season. Boise St. enters with the No. 7 ranked total defense and No. 9 ranked total defense and the Broncos are ranked in the top 5 in four passing defense statistics so they can shut him down. He did not play in the 40-20 loss early in the season. The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, off three straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (316) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Pac 12 Championship Winner. Utah has a shot to make it to back-to-back Rose Bowl games which would be the first team since Stanford did it in 2013 and 2014 but it will not be easy with this matchup. Last season, the Utes had a big mismatch with Oregon which it also dominated during the regular season and while they have already defeated USC this season, that game was at home and it was far from a domination in a one-point victory. Utah backed into this game as it went down to the fourth tiebreaker between them, Washington and Oregon and it had the edge in conference strength of schedule of the three. The Utes finished 6-0 at home but only 3-3 away from home with all three of those wins coming in the Pac 12 against teams that had losing conference records. This is no doubt an all-around great team as they are ranked in the top 20 on both sides of the ball but the difference here will be its defense will not be able to stop the USC offense similar to where it allowed 556 yards in the regular season meeting at that was at home. The Trojans had a couple scares along the way with one possession wins at Arizona, Oregon St. and UCLA but they won the yardage battle in all of those true road games and the Utah game was the lone game they were outgained this season and that was by only six total yards. This offense has been humming as USC has scored 38 or more points in six straight games while accumulating over 500 yards five times, averaging 551.3 ypg over that stretch and there is no reason for that to end especially against a defense that is has already schooled. Quarterback Caleb Williams has come into his own as he has averaged 353.6 ypg with 20 touchdowns over the last six games after averaging 265.0 ypg with 14 touchdowns in his first six games and he has tossed only three interceptions all season long. The Trojans are back and a win gets them into the CFP as long as there is no Ohio St. bias. 10* (306) USC Trojans

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC East Game of the Month. This is a big divisional game for both teams, positioning for Buffalo and keeping playoff hopes alive for New England. While the Bills are tied with Miami atop the AFC East, the Dolphins currently own the first two tiebreakers with a head-to-head win and a better record within the division. The Bills are 0-2 in the division so far this season, while the Patriots (2-1), Dolphins (2-1) and Jets (2-2) are all ahead of them so New England has to avoid a loss to drop to 0-3. It has been an up and down stretch for the Bills as they have gone 2-2 over their last four games and while outgaining the opponent in three of those, they were far from dominating performances. Buffalo has shown flashes on offense, defense and special teams over this recent stretch but has not been able to put all three phases together in a single game and what better place to resolve that here. The Bills are still a top five unit in both offensive and defensive scoring and face a very inconsistent Patriots team. New England is also coming off a Thursday road game so there is no rest advantage for the Patriots which had their three-game winning streak snapped against the Vikings. The three wins were typical Bill Belichick productions as his defense allowed an average of 203.7 ypg as they were able to shut down young quarterbacks, Zach Wilson twice and San Ehlinger and of their six wins, the best quarterback they have defeated was Jared Goff as the other two wins were against Jacoby Brissett and Mitch Trubisky. The five losses were against Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins so you can see the pattern here. Offensively, New England did get a big game from Mac Jones against Minnesota but the offense managed 288, 203 and 297 total yards in those three previous victories and he is in a tough spot here. Despite the loss of Von Miller, Buffalo is getting healthy on defense around him as safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre'Davious White are off the injury list while linebacker Tremaine Edwards, who has missed the last two games, will be back this week. 10* (301) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. The Colts story has been nice but lets be honest, this cannot last. Indianapolis won its first game with interim coach Jeff Saturday at the helm and with the exception of some former get off my lawn head coaches, most everyone was rooting for him and the Colts nearly pulled off the double play as they lost to the Eagles at home last week by a point. While they remain home and seem to have a good matchup this week, that is not the case. Getting Matt Ryan back onto the field has added a veteran leadership but not necessarily much production as Indianapolis has averaged only 20.5 ppg and while the running game busted out for 207 yards against the Raiders, it regressed with just 99 yards against the Eagles last week and will not have success here against the No. 6 ranked rushing defense. The Steelers are coming off a tough loss last week against the red hot Bengals as they were in it for three quarters before Cincinnati pulled away. Overall, Pittsburgh has played the toughest schedule in the league with six of their games coming against the top ten and seven of 10 coming against the top 16. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been put into a tough situation with limited weapons around him and he has been able to keep them in games with the eight interceptions being his downfall but no need to worry about that here, and the defense got a boost with T.J. Watt coming back as his presence is felt with the pass rush that has struggled since he went down early in the season. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. While this is not a typical contrarian play, it could be considered that way with how the Eagles are playing of late as they have hit a lull that all teams go through with a loss against Washington and then barely survived against a bad Colts team last week. If this game was played two weeks ago, the Eagles would be favored by double-digits but they are getting a good price here due to the recent struggles that they can easily reverse especially on their home field where they were embarrassed last time out against the Commanders. The offense has not been very dynamic over the last two games but the Eagles are still ranked No. 5 in total offense and No. 4 in scoring offense and will be facing a defense that has been gorged against the run, allowing 153 or more yards in four of their last six games. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Green Bay had that huge fourth quarter comeback against Dallas to win at home in overtime but laid an egg last Thursday against Tennessee and have now been outgained in five of their last seven games. The big news this week out of Green Bay is that Aaron Rodgers has been playing with a broken thumb but that was pretty evident to everyone as he has struggled with his accuracy and even his arm strength to a lesser degree. They will be facing the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL and while the weakness of the Eagles is the rushing defense, if Green Bay falls behind and is forced to pass, it will be lights out as Philadelphia is No. 2 against the pass. The Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC Game of the Month. The Titans remain the most disrespected team in the league over the last couple years as all they do is win and cover and yet the public refuses to buy in and the lines have reflected that which has led to that great spread record which now sits on an 8-0 run and while these are streaks we like to go against, there is one on the other we are going against and taking the value play. The Titans have had extra rest in this game after beating Green Bay on the road last Thursday for its seventh win in eight games following a 0-2 start. The lone loss came in Kansas City in overtime and the titans have held eight straight teams to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams averaging 260 or more yards passing per game. The Bengals also started the season 0-2 but have won six of their last eight games to get right back into the mix in the AFC North as they trail Baltimore by a game. Cincinnati is dealing with some major injuries as receiver Ja'Marr Chase remains on the shelf with a hip injury and now running back Joe Mixon is out with a concussion so the offense will be in a very tough spot against the tough Tennessee stop unit. Their defense has been solid as they are No. 11 overall but just No. 18 against the run so queue up Derrick Henry for another big game to go along with Ryan Tannehill who was unstoppable against Green Bay. The Bengals have been outgained in four of their six road games. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 59-26 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (260) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Commanders have hit an extra gear as they have won five of their last six games to move a game over .500 and have climbed into the NFC playoff mix, a half-game behind Seattle for the final spot. Washington has relied on a strong and opportunistic defense that has allowed 21 points or less in seven straight games but the improved rushing defense will be put to the test here. Taylor Heinicke has turned into the fan favorite and while he has shown flashes, he is not very good as he has the highest quarterback turnover rate in the league albeit with limited starts. He gives them a spark but puts them in bad spots. Washington is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Atlanta snapped a two-game slide with a win over Chicago at home last week and it too remains in the playoff picture, trailing the Seahawks by a game and a half. The Falcons have struggled on the road as they have dropped three straight games away from home but only one of those was a bad performance which was at Cincinnati. Atlanta possesses the No. 3 ranked rushing offense in the NFL and have put up 138 or more yards on the ground in seven of their last eight games and nine of 11 on the season with that latest exception being against the Bengals where they had to abandon the run. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons.10* (255) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. With the Jets firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture, the last thing they needed was a divided locker room and that is what quarterback Zach Wilson was about to do with his postgame comments after leading the offense to 103 yards on 77 yards passing that included six first downs which led to three points. Head coach Robert Saleh has benched Wilson and will turn to Mike White who has limited experience from last season but can provide a spark to a listless offense that has averaged 14 ppg over their last four games. They will be facing a Bears defense that is fifth worst in pressure rate, second to last in pressures and fourth worst in sacks. On the flip side, the Jets defense is ranked No. 8 in pressure rate, number of pressures and sack percentage. The Bears is unlikely to have Justin Fields behind center as he has a separated non-throwing shoulder along with torn ligaments which is similar to what Baker Mayfield had last season and it is a production limiting injury and Chicago cannot sacrifice his long-term health so it will most likely be Trevor Siemian at quarterback and he limits this offense that is No. 1 in rushing offense with Fields being the main cog of that. There are weapons around him but he does not have the big play capability that Fields possesses and the solid Jets defense will be over the place. Chicago is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (264) New York Jets

This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This is the lone game on Saturday that features a matchup of both teams needing to win to become bowl eligible. Appalachian St. had a promising start to the season as it opened 5-3 but it has lost two of its last three games and is now in must win mode. The Mountaineers do have six wins but they need seven victories to become bowl eligible since two of their wins have come against FCS teams and they are out to extend their streak of seven straight seasons of being bowl eligible. They are coming off a dominating performance last week against Old Dominion as they amassed 498 total yards, the most against a conference opponent this season and their 207 rushing yards made it five times this year they have gone over 200 yards rushing and that is bad news for a Georgia Southern defense that is ranked No. 130 in rushing defense. Georgia Southern was looking like a bowl shoe in as it was 5-3 with three home games over its final four contests but it has dropped its last three games and now it is do or die for the Eagles. There is plenty of motivation on this side as well however this team has been fraudulent for most of the season. An early season over Nebraska looked good at the time but that is no longer the case and Georgia Southern has now been outgained in eight straight games as the defense continues to be an issue. In addition to the poor rushing defense, the Eagles are ranked No. 129 overall and No. 108 in points allowed and while the offense has shown good flashes, they will be facing a tough Mountaineers defense that is ranked No. 28 overall and No. 49 in scoring. They have been led by quarterback Kyle Vantrease who leads the No. 8 ranked passing offense but he has completed just 61 percent of his passes while throwing 13 interceptions. 10* (173) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This is a play on the UTEP MINERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. With 15 starters returning this season, the Miners were out for a big season after going 7-6 last year as they were out to put together consecutive winning seasons for the first time in 17 years. It has come down to the final game of the regular season for the Miners as they are 5-6 and need a victory to become bowl eligible. The bad news is they are massive underdogs which does not give them much of a chance but the matchup could be on their side here against what we think is an overvalued UTSA team. UTEP took out FIU last week which snapped a two-game losing streak and it looks to win consecutive games for the second time this season. The strength of the offense is the running game as the Miners are ranked No. 58 and have added another dimension in backup quarterback Calvin Brownholtz who was part of a season high 335 yards rushing last week. That will be the key here as a big underdog is always appealing when controlling the running game and eating clock. UTSA enters its final regular season game with a 9-2 record including a perfect 7-0 record in C-USA and is gearing up for the championship game and a second straight double-digit win season. The two losses this season have come against Houston and Texas so there have been no bad losses and while the Roadrunners are riding an eight-game winning streak, the last three games have come against teams playing their backup quarterback so the last two games that were combined victories of 92-14 are slightly skewed because of that. They are solid on offense, ranked No. 13 overall and No. 14 in scoring and while taking nothing away from that, playing a schedule ranked No. 114 in the country has helped. This will be the second straight season the Roadrunners will be hosting the C-USA Championship after clinching that feat last week so there is definitely the letdown factor as well. 10* (223) UTEP Miners

This is play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Unfortunately, Buffalo is a team that got a tough break due to the winter storm last weekend as its game against 1-9 Akron was cancelled and it originally forced Buffalo to win this game against Kent St. to become bowl eligible. The good news is that it was announced on Wednesday that the game has been rescheduled for Friday, December 2 so they now have two shots once again and as we all know with the MAC, anything can happen and if Buffalo had played and won, this game would not be as important but now it is and the Bulls do not want to wait for a week to capture a bowl bid. It was not that long ago that the Bulls sat atop the MAC East Division but they have lost their last two games including a 45-24 loss at first place Ohio that sealed their fate. Kent St. lost at home against Eastern Michigan last week which pushed the Golden Flashes to 4-7 and their season ends on Saturday and the chance to play in back-to-back bowl games for the first time in program history is gone. Kent St. has outgained only two FBS opponents this season and now it has to close out the season with nothing to play for and might have to do so without quarterback Collin Schlee as he left the last game against the Eagles with an injuries and will be a gametime decision. It is likely he does not go so he does not get worse with nothing on the line. This will deter the offense that is ranked No. 41 overall and Devin Kargman showed he is not ready for primetime as he went just 7-19 for 91 yards last week in relief. Whichever quarterback goes, it will not matter with the motivated Bulls getting back to the postseason after missing out last season after a run of three straight bowl games under then head coach Lance Leipold. 10* (172) Buffalo Bulls

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our College Football Game of the Year. South Carolina is coming off its most complete game of the season as it pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season, rolling over Tennessee 63-38 as it outgained the Volunteers 606-507 but that defensive effort is a little concerning heading into the season finale against rival Clemson. The Gamecocks improved to 7-4 on the season and while this is a big rivalry, there is little chance that they are going to replicate that game from this past Saturday. The previous six wins were all garbage victories as they defeated 4-7 Georgia St., 3-9 Charlotte and South Carolina St. of the FCS in nonconference action while the three SEC wins were against fading Kentucky, 5-6 Vanderbilt and 4-7 Texas A&M. South Carolina has been a road underdog of a touchdown or more twice this season and failed to cover both of those games, losing at Florida and Arkansas by a combined 36 points. Clemson dominated Miami last week 40-10 as it outgained the Hurricanes 447-98 and held Miami to only six first downs in a dominating victory for its second straight following that debacle at Notre Dame. This is the third straight home game for the Tigers where they are 6-0 and have outgained opponents by 134 ypg and could not be catching their rival at a better time. Clemson can actually thank South Carolina with that win over Tennessee as the Tigers will make a move up in the CFP rankings and keep its outside shot to making it into the playoffs alive and now it comes down to style points as a blowout win here and one against North Carolina in the ACC Championship will now look a whole lot better. They obviously need help but losses by TCU and USC over the next two weeks could put them in prime position as they are currently tied with the Trojans at No. 5 at +2000 so they are far from done. The 40-game home winning streak is extended with what looks like a great blowout spot. Here, we play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog of seven points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (158) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Florida and Florida St. enter this rivalry game the opposite of what many thought they would be before the season started. The Gators opened the season with a very impressive win over Utah which has looked better and better as the season has progressed based on the Utes success. They followed that up with a bad loss at Kentucky while the next three defeats against Tennessee, LSU and Georgia were no surprise but many will be eyeing what happened last week as Vanderbilt took out Florida by a touchdown as a 13.5-point underdog. The public sees that and will avoid the Gators and the books have made the adjustments to the line based on that but Florida outgained the Commodores by 162 total yards as it was hurt by two turnovers, one of which was a fumble that was recovered in the endzone for a Vanderbilt touchdown and they were just 4-15 on third down. In a rivalry like this, they will come to play to improve their bowl position. Florida St. meanwhile had low expectations and after a 4-0 start, heads started turning but then the Seminoles lost three straight games and the here we go again rumblings surfaced. But Florida St. recovered and has won four straight games to build some great momentum going forward to end the season and going into next year. However, those wins came against a bad Georgia Tech teams, an even worse Miami team, a Syracuse team that has fallen off the planet and last week a 5-6 Louisiana team from the Sun Belt Conference, not exactly a solid stretch of victories. The numbers are great as Florida St. is ranked No. 16 in total offense, No. 23 in scoring offense, No. 11 in total defense and No. 13 in scoring defense but this has come against a schedule ranked ahead of only Michigan and Washington of teams ranked in the Top 20. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season averaging between 230 and 275 passing ypg and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 230 and 275 passing ypg. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (135) Florida Gators

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. We won with Baylor last week against TCU even though it lost on a last second field goal and while that could typically provide a letdown going forward, not in this matchup. Texas always has a bullseye on its back and the Bears will be out to snap a two-game slide before heading into their bowl game. Baylor had won three straight games prior to last week where it put up a clunker against Kansas St. with its worst offensive performance of the season with just 306 yards and three points and some will argue that the Wildcats are a more complete team than TCU. The Baylor defense has struggled against the more finesse teams as it is a physical unit which matches up well against the Longhorns. Based on the line last week, Baylor would have roughly been a touchdown underdog had the game been at TCU and now the Bears are getting a bigger number at Texas? Sorry, that is plain wrong and it is based on name and name alone. The Bears are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season and this is the biggest line they have seen all season. Texas is coming off one of its most complete efforts of the season as it rolled over Kansas, whose season has taken a downward spiral over the second half of the season, and the Longhorns are now 2-2 over their last four games following a three-game winning streak. Prior to the Kansas game, Texas was outgained in four straight games and have been outgained in six of their last 10 games. All four of their losses this season have been by one possession so they have been competitive throughout and have avoided the big blowout that seems to hit them at least once over the last few seasons. That being said, a season that could have been has turned into another average one and they are looking forward to another fresh start next year with Arch Manning coming to Austin. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl and after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl. This situation is 42-19 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (115) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. One thing that both Tulane and Cincinnati have in common is both of their losses came against Central Florida so should the Knights defeat South Florida as close to a three-touchdown favorite on Saturday, they are in the AAC Championship as they own the tiebreaker meaning the loser of this game is out. Tulane has had a very special season that no one saw coming as it is 9-2 with both losses coming at home and the Green Wave bring in a 4-0 road record so something has to give with Cincinnati being 5-0 at home. Tulane defeated Kansas St. on the highway early in the season and that has turned into a very impressive win but two of the other two wins came at South Florida and Tulsa, both of which are staying home for the postseason, with the fourth coming at Houston in overtime where they were outgained by 110 total yards. The Green Wave will have a challenge here and the first road loss of the season seems inevitable for a team that has not been in a situation like this in a long time. The Bearcats other loss came at Arkansas in their season opener so they have won nine of ten games with the four-point loss against the Knights being the only blemish. The season has not been as good as last season but it is better than expected with so much lost from that special year and they are on another mission with a New Year's Six bowl berth at stake. The five home wins have extended the Cincinnati home winning streak to 32 games and with a short line, a win likely means a cover. They have dominated here by outscoring opponents by 20 ppg with a couple close calls involved and overall, the defense has once again led the way as the Bearcats are No. 22 in both total defense and scoring defense and with quarterback Ben Bryant questionable, the defense will really have to step up which we totally expect. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better coming off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (164) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. New England has won three straight games following an improbable win last week against the Jets as it returned a punt for a touchdown in the final seconds to produce a 10-3 victory. The three wins were typical Bill Belichick productions as his defenses were able to shut down young quarterbacks, Zach Wilson twice and San Ehlinger and of their six wins, the best quarterback they have defeated was Jared Goff, although an argument can be made for Justin Fields but he was not particularly well in the passing game, and now they face a savvy veteran ready for a bounce back. The offense has not been doing much at all as over the last four games, the Patriots have not surpassed 300 yards, averaging only 262 ypg and have been outgained in two of those. New England is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or higher in the second half of the season. We played against Minnesota last week as it got shellacked by the Cowboys after a previous poor effort against the Packers and we are moving in on the Vikings for a similar reason. While we expected Minnesota to come back down to earth following that huge overtime win over the Bills to extend its winning streak to seven games, but we did not expect the awful effort it put forth last Sunday afternoon. They remain home on a short week which is a big bonus and even more so after an absolute stinker in front of their home fans. The Vikings defense has been below average all season and last week was one of the worst efforts as they allowed a season high 40 points and gave up 458 yards but face a nonlethal offense this week with the Patriots coming in at No. 25 overall. Offensively, we are going to see a much better effort and while many will fade the Vikings because of the Kirk Cousins primetime aspect, that is a played narrative. Minnesota is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. 10* (110) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The Egg Bowl takes center stage on Thanksgiving night but the teams are not in the forefront as we head into the game but it is the coaches. The rumor mill, albeit from very substantial sources, have indicated that Mississippi head coach Lane Kiffin will be taking the head coaching job at Auburn as early as Friday and while he dismissed it and even addressed the team squashing the hearsay, his terminology was vague as he said he has not accepted any job and even Auburn said they have not hired a coach. Maybe not officially, but either way, this is a big distraction for a team that has gone in the wrong direction after a 7-0 start and a top seven ranking as the Rebels have lost three of their last four games including a blowout at Arkansas last week where the final score does not show the Razorbacks dominance. This was one of the most overrated teams in the country as the Rebels best win is arguably in their season opener against Troy and their four SEC wins came against three fraud teams in Kentucky, Auburn and Texas A&M that looked good coming into the season but clearly are not, and Vanderbilt. Mississippi St. is coming off a blowout win over East Tennessee St. which is a stupid scheduling spot but that is here nor there. The Bulldogs became bowl eligible well before that and of their four losses, three came on the road against Alabama, LSU and Kentucky with the loss against the Wildcats admittedly a bad one, and the home loss came against Georgia and while a game worse than the Rebels, they are arguably the better team as they possess the lone top 30 win of these two teams and have played a schedule ranked No. 17 compared to No. 43 for the Rebels. The stats are very close overall and going back to the coaching angle, there is a rumor on this side that Mike Leach is going to retire so there is a huge coach motivation advantage on the Mississippi St. side. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 77-36 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (111) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Detroit is coming off an impressive road win over the Giants last week to move to 4-6 to get back into the playoff talk and the Lions have won three straight games for the first time since November of 2017. While impressive for the win column, Detroit was outgained in all three of those games so those victories do come with an asterisk. The Lions have been outgained in seven straight games and eight of ten games on the season and in the two games they won the yardage battle, it was by only 29 and 43 yards. The problem is the defense as they remain dead last overall and in points allowed while sitting No. 31 in rushing defense and No. 28 in passing defense and are in a tough spot here against one of the best offenses and during that winning streak, those were against teams all ranked in the bottom half of the league in offense. Buffalo snapped a two-game losing streak with a win over Cleveland that was played in Detroit and while it was outgained, that was due to the Browns putting up numbers in garbage time. The Bills do have the advantage of playing away from home in the same stadium two games in a row as they are used to the surroundings that most teams would not and while that seems small, it really is not. Buffalo remains No. 2 in total offense and scoring offense and while they have been in a bit of a lull, they can go off here as they need a get right game to get back to their early season dominance with three straight division games on deck. The three losses on the season were by a combined eight points and all against teams currently sitting in playoff spots. Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a losing record, winning those games by an average of 18.0 ppg. Here, we play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (105) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. This is a lot of points to be laying on the road but this is not a true road game for the 49ers with this game being played in Mexico City and they have edges all over the field in this matchup. The Cardinals were able to take out the Rams on the road last week without Kyler Murray but that ended up being an advantage in the fact Los Angeles had little to no time to prepare for Colt McCoy but San Francisco has had a full week to prepare for both quarterbacks. As of Monday morning, Murray is still questionable and looking like he will not go but if he does, he will not be 100 percent. Last week, the Cardinals faced the No. 31 pressure rate defense and this week, they will go against the No. 7 pressure rate unit that is only getting better with health. Overall, Arizona is No. 20 in total offense and No. 19 in both passing and rushing so it has no strength either way and could be in for a long night especially with all of the injuries along the offensive line. The 49ers come in off a win over the Chargers to make it two straight wins sandwiched around their bye week so they are in a good position for another big win and tie the Seahawks for first place in the NFC West. San Francisco is No. 1 in the NFL in total defense and No. 6 in scoring defense and has rebounded nicely following the disaster of an effort against Kansas City but the Chiefs are the Chiefs so no big fault there. The injury list is short which cannot come at a better time and they are also getting healthy on offense as they are near full strength along with a healthy Christian McCaffrey to add another element to the offense that is a solid No. 9 in total offense and facing a very below average defense. One hidden advantage for San Francisco is time of possession as it is No. 7 and that is important here with this game being played at extremely high altitude so keeping the defenses fresh is of utmost importance. 10* (475) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Kansas City has won three straight games to improve to 7-2 on the season and has taken over the top seed in the AFC but has a tough assignment Sunday night on the road for the first time in a month following a bye week and a pair of home games. The Chiefs are clearly one of the top three teams in the NFL but they have lost any sort of value here even though the line has come down. This is one team Kansas city always has fits against as over the last nine meetings, it has lost three of those outright and in the six wins, only one has been by more than one possession. The offense is still one of the best in the league at No. 2 overall and No. 1 in scoring but will be facing an improved defense. As for its own defense, Kansas City is No. 16 overall and No. 19 in points allowed with the Chargers always being dangerous. Los Angeles is coming off a Sunday night loss against San Francisco last week on the road and it is back home following two straight road games and its bye week, so it is in the exact opposite spot of the Chiefs playing their first home game in a month. Granted, the home field has not been great that includes blowout losses to Seattle and Jacksonville and close wins against Las Vegas and Denver and based on power rankings, the Chargers should be 4-0 in those games. Injuries have played a big part but they could get Keenan Allen back at receiver to help Justin Herbert who had his worst game of the season last week against the 49ers but that is one of, if not the best overall defenses in the league. Los Angeles has still put together a 5-4 record playing with a lot of adversity and a win here goes a long way. 10* (470) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFC Game of the Month. We played against Dallas last week as it failed to win and cover against Green Bay and as mentioned in the Thursday night game, the Cowboys snapped a streak of being 195-0 coming into that game when holding a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. Now they hit the road again against a much better team than the Packers but really how much better? More on that. Dallas is in a great position here coming off that loss and it is laying a smaller than anticipated line based on that loss and what the Vikings have been up to. The one key here for the Cowboys will be their defense as getting pressure on Kirk Cousins will be a big advantage and they should do just that. Dallas leads the NFL in sacks with 33 and can cause havoc here. Minnesota and Buffalo is coming off the game of the year as the Vikings prevailed in overtime and it was fortunate to win with all of the breaks going their way. That has been the case all season for the 8-1 Vikings as their last seven wins have all come by one possession, four by four points or less. According to Team Rankings, Minnesota leads the NFL in Luck Ratings at 2.8 with the Giants second at 2.5 and everyone else way down the list. The Vikings are no doubt a very good team but are not an 8-1 teams, especially considering they have been outgained on the season by over 25 ypg and this luck factor will eventually come back down to a more level plane. 10* (471) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers came through last week with a home win over the Saints to move to 3-6 on the season and have some momentum. They are 2-2 at home with the other win coming against Tampa Bay and the two losses coming against the Patriots and Jets by just three and four points respectively. Overall, Pittsburgh has played the toughest schedule in the league with four of their games coming against the top ten and five of nine coming against the top 16. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been put into a tough situation with limited weapons around him and he has not been horrible with the exception of his eight interceptions and the defense got a boost with T.J. Watt coming back as his presence is felt with the pass rush that has struggled since he went down early in the season. Cincinnati is coming off its bye week after destroying Carolina and has won three of four games to move to 5-4 on the season and now it is in a tough spot facing a defense that looks like its old self. The bye week helped the Bengals get a little healthier but they are still without receiver Ja'Marr Chase who is always a big presence in the offense as he was in the first meeting with 10 catches for 129 yards and his absence is big in this matchup. Joe Mixon went off against Carolina but the Steelers can shut him down as they are ranked No. 6 in rushing defense and while Joe Burrow does have other weapons, the offense is not close to as dynamic with Chase around. The schedule has been easy as the Bengals have played the No. 27 ranked slate and their record does not matchup with that. 10* (474) Pittsburgh Steelers