Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-24 | Yankees -102 v. Blue Jays | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto is scheduled to start struggling Kevin Gausman (0-2, 11.57 ERA) today against fellow right-hander and former Blue Jay Marcus Stroman (1-1, 2.12). Stroman is 0-0 with an 0.82 ERA in two career starts vs. Toronto. This will be the second time Stroman has pitched in Toronto since he was traded to the New York Mets during the 2019 season. He held the Blue Jays to one run over five innings with the Chicago Cubs on Aug. 30, 2022. Gausman is 10-8 with a 3.27 ERA in 32 career outings (26 starts) against the Yankees. He allowed six runs (five earned) over 1 1/3 innings in a 9-8 loss in New York on April 6. He followed that last Friday by permitting six runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 frames to the Colorado Rockies in a 12-4 loss. |
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04-17-24 | Royals -188 v. White Sox | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are off to a great start this season and part of that success is due to the return to form of starting pitcher Singer. Singer has found his strikeout pitch again after struggling in 2023 with just 133 strikeouts. He is well ahead of that pace this year and looks like a top-two starter in the rotation. The Royals are hitting home runs at a fast pace already with 20 on the season and that doesn't bode well for White Sox starter Fedde. Fedde has already given up five home runs in just three starts this season. The White Sox, as a team, are hitting just .200 as team this season and have struck out 132 times as a team. |
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04-17-24 | Braves -134 v. Astros | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has won seven of the last 10 and 10 of the first 15 to start the season. Houston has lost five of the last seven and dating back to last season have lost 15 in the last 20 at home. At the plate, Atlanta is first in team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while third in runs scored. Houston is next to last in team ERA at 5.35 and 28th in batting average allowed (.265). Atlanta starting pitcher Max Fried is coming off a solid outing in which the left-hander gave up four hits and one run in 6 plus innings last Friday with Atlanta defeating Miami 8-1. Houston starting pitcher J.P. France is off to a slow start. Across three outings, the right-hander has allowed 14 runs in 15 plus innings while striking out 12 but walking seven. Houston has lost each of France’s three starts. As mentioned twice previously, Houston is playing without four starting pitchers from last season's starting rotation, due to injuries, which puts more pressure on both the starting rotation and bullpen. |
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04-16-24 | Cardinals -139 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland’s lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The current Athletics are only 10-for-43 with three home runs and four RBI against Lance Lynn. The A’s own an 85 wRC+ against the right-handed pitchers in April, so it’s hard to trust them in this matchup. I cannot take the A’s even though their bullpen has been terrific so far this month. The Cardinals have a 98 wRC+ against the southpaws in April and are 4-for-11 with a home run and two RBI versus JP Sears. Their bullpen has registered a strong 2.23 ERA and 2.63 FIP so far this month (40.1 innings pitched), so I’m backing the Cards to come out on top. |
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04-16-24 | Giants -132 v. Marlins | 3-6 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants split their last four games. They are playing well offensively and scored 16 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to pay well offensively in this game because they have crushed left-handed pitching this season and Weathers has been shaky on the mound, giving up six runs in three starts. He gave up three runs in his lone home start, and with Miami having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Giants in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 13 runs in their last three home games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Hicks has been brilliant on the mound this season, giving up three runs in three starts. He gave up one run in his lone start against the Marlins and will keep their offense in check. Go with San Francisco to cover the money line. |
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04-15-24 | Cardinals -171 v. A's | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sonny Gray's first start as a Cardinal was strong, and he'll return home as a pitcher that limits damage consistently. Behind him is a solid bullpen. Against an Athletics offense that is still among MLB's worst, expect St. Louis' pitching to keep Oakland in check. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will get hits off Ross Stripling, as his H/9 (13.0) is the reason that Oakland keeps losing his starts. St. Louis will get runs early and often. They should parlay that into a multi-run victory on the road. |
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04-15-24 | Padres v. Brewers +111 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers will look to bounce back behind resurrected right-hander Joe Ross when they host the San Diego Padres today in the opener of a short three-game homestand. Ross (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who missed most of the last two seasons after a second Tommy John surgery, makes his third start for Milwaukee. Right-hander Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.87), who gave up one hit over eight innings the last time he faced the Brewers, gets the nod for the Padres. Musgrove was charged with four runs on five hits in four innings in his most recent start, a 5-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday. He allowed a leadoff homer in the fifth then left three batters later with the bases loaded. Reliever Stephen Kolek then surrendered a grand slam to the first batter he faced. Musgrove is 1-3 with a 4.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. Milwaukee. |
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04-15-24 | Royals -170 v. White Sox | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox will send right-hander Nick Nastrini to make his major league debut today. Nastrini, 24, was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of last year's trade deadline for right-handers Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. Nastrini has made two starts at Triple-A Charlotte, going 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. He made five appearances (three starts) in spring training this year, going 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA. The Royals will send right-hander Seth Lugo (2-0, 1.45 ERA), who will be making his fourth start of the season. In his most recent start last Wednesday night against the Houston Astros, Lugo earned his second win of the year, allowing two runs on seven hits in six innings, striking out two. Lugo, who is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his career against Chicago, will be making his second career start (third appearance) against the White Sox. Lugo allowed one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings, striking out three and walking two against the White Sox on April 4 to earn his first win with Kansas City. |
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04-14-24 | Reds -156 v. White Sox | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago isn't going anywhere, but Cincinnati could be on the verge of a breakout season. The Reds have power, potential, and pitching — the White Sox have none of those things. The visitors will jump on Soroka early, giving Ashcraft the run support necessary to turn in a quality start. The Reds' SP hasn't been lights out, but he has fanned 11 batters in 11.1 IP and held the Phillies to two earned runs in his season debut. After facing Philadelphia and Milwaukee, he should find it much easier to work through the Sox lineup. |
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04-14-24 | Braves -143 v. Marlins | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This Marlins squad has been miserable at home. Not only are they winless, but all but one of those defeats came by multiple runs. Matching up a struggling Jesus Luzardo, who has started three losses, against an Atlanta offense that's arguably MLB's best, is a nightmare matchup. Charlie Morton's lone road start of 2024 was what every team wants, scoreless. The Braves' bullpen has had issues, but Miami's offense is among MLB's weakest. This is another game where they can succeed. |
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04-14-24 | Brewers +179 v. Orioles | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have been road warriors this season. They have won three straight road games and six of their last seven overall. They are playing well offensively and scored 27 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they feasted on right-handed pitching this season and they’re batting over .290 against righties. Even though Corbin has pitched well this season, he hasn't been as sharp at home, and with Baltimore’s bullpen struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Orioles have lost two of their last three home games. They are struggling offensively, scoring only six runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Rea has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, giving up three runs in two starts. He didn’t give up a run in his lone start against the Orioles last season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line. |
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04-13-24 | Cardinals -104 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona starter Ryne Nelson has an 8.33 ERA. The Diamondbacks have lost five of the last seven, five of the last six at home versus St Louis and Arizona is 2-4 in its last six against an opponent from the National League. St Louis is 14-6 in the last 20 versus Arizona and 5-1 in the last six on the road against the Diamondbacks. St. Louis is a solid 3.99 in team ERA. Arizona is allowing opponents to hit .246 and before winning two straight had lost five straight, allowing five runs or more in each of the five losses. Arizona is 25th in errors per game, committing an average of 0.85. |
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04-13-24 | Giants v. Rays -105 | 11-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tampa Bay is 4-1 in the last five games, while San Francisco is 3-7 in the last 10 games, and 2-4 in the last six in the six versus Tampa Bay. San Francisco has lost nine of the last 12 in April. Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot was hit hard in his first outing, but bounced back strong last time out when holding Colorado, at Coors Field, to three hits and no runs in six innings. Logan Webb has allowed nine runs in 19 ⅔ innings for an ERA of nearly 5.00. San Francisco’s team ERA is 27th at 5.06 and is allowing teams to average .262 at the plate. Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes is off to a strong start with four home runs and 10 RBIs. |
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04-13-24 | Pirates v. Phillies -142 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia has fared much better against left-handed pitchers (.277 BA/.358 OBP/.361 SLG/.719 OPS) than right-handers this season (.208/.283/.350/.633), and while Gonzales has pitched well in his first two outings, his track record isn't reliable. He has been home run-prone during his career, allowing 29 long balls in 2021 and 30 in 2022. The home team's powerful lineup will inflict damage on the lefty hurler's ERA early in tomorrow's game, building a lead for Turnbull. Philly's pen has performed poorly this season, but with a comfortable lead, Turnbull should last long enough to take pressure off of it. |
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04-12-24 | Reds -161 v. White Sox | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cincinnati is not off to the best start but it's playing one of the weakest teams in baseball, as the White Sox have been decimated by injuries. Chicago is without Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Max Stassi, who all contribute considerably at the plate. The loss of several players for Chicago has resulted in the White Sox being 25th in slugging percentage, 26th in team batting average and 29th in runs scored, averaging 2.42 runs per game. Chicago has lost 12 of its last 14. Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abboitt has had two solid outings allowing 10 hits and five runs in 10 ⅓ innings. In contrast, Chicago starting pitcher Chris Flexen has allowed seven earned runs in 10 ⅔ innings resulting in losses to Atlanta and Kansas City. Flexen has a 5.91 ERA. |
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04-12-24 | Royals +111 v. Mets | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals have won seven straight games. They’ve been on a roll offensively and scored 28 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers this season and Severino struggled in his first home start, giving up six runs in the loss to Milwaukee. Even though he is 3-1 against the Royals, he didn’t pitch well in recent starts against them, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts against Kansas City, so expect him to have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Mets have won five of their last seven games. They have also played well offensively, scoring 29 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they’re batting under .200 against right-handers and Wacha has looked good on the mound for the Royals, giving up only three runs in two starts. He is 5-3 against the Mets and gave up 10 runs in his last four starts against them. With Kansas City’s bullpen playing well at the moment, they won’t have a hard time keeping New York’s offense in check. Go with Kansas City to cover the money line. |
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04-12-24 | Brewers +106 v. Orioles | 11-1 | Win | 106 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles, as they were on the road and playing well into the night against Boston before having to travel home to take on the well rested Brewer team. On top of that, Milwaukee has the best power hitter, and the better pitcher in the matchup. Christian Yelich has more home runs that the top two Orioles combined, he has been excellent lately and is fueling this Milwaukee attack. This will be bad news for Tyler Wells, as he lost both of his starts this season, allowing at least three runs and a home run in each of his two starts. Peralta has been much better for the Brewers, and has struck out 15 while only walking two, with the Brewers winning each of his two starts. The Brewers will steal the first game here on the road. |
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04-10-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox -110 | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles jumped all over Boston's pitching yesterday, scoring seven runs on 13 hits. They were 8-for-15 with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox scored one run in the bottom of the first but were held scoreless the rest of the afternoon, managing just two hits against SP Corbin Burnes and the O's bullpen. I'm anticipating a better performance by the home team today against Irvin, who didn't fare well against Boston last season, as 1B Triston Casas hit a three-run homer and 3B Rafael Devers went 2-for-4. The Orioles starter put nine runners on base in his 2024 debut versus the Royals, and I expect Boston to take advantage of these opportunities after yesterday's dud. Crawford is expected to go for Boston, which should be good news for Sox fans. He has allowed just five hits with 12 Ks in 10.2 combined innings this season and held Baltimore scoreless in his lone appearance against them last year (one hit with seven Ks in 6.0 IP on Sept. 30). He and the Red Sox bullpen (fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeouts) should perform well enough to quiet the Orioles' bats. |
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04-10-24 | Phillies -127 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nola (1-1, 5.40 ERA) allowed seven runs, six earned, in 4 1/3 innings during a 12-4 loss to the Atlanta Braves on March 30. He rebounded as the Phillies blanked the host Washington Nationals 4-0 on Friday. Nola walked four batters in the blustery conditions but gave up only two hits over 5 2/3 innings. Nola went 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals last season. In his career, he is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 11 starts vs. St. Louis. Lance Lynn (0-0, 4.15 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Cardinals. He threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers before a Southern California rainstorm cut short his March 30 start. In his second outing, Lynn served up three home runs to the Miami Marlins in 4 2/3 innings on Thursday, though the Cardinals won 8-5. He allowed four runs on eight hits in that contest. |
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04-09-24 | Phillies -127 v. Cardinals | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia has won seven of the last eight head-to-head versus St Louis and the Phillies have won four of the last five played on the road at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals. Although Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler is 0-1, the right-hander has pitched very well in two outings allowing just one run in 12 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and one walk. St Louis starting pitcher Sonny Gray will be making his season debut and will likely not pitch more than three to four innings. St Louis has struggled at the plate thus far with a team batting average of .222 and a .343 slugging percentage. The Cardinals OPS is just .643. Philadelphia is not that much better at this point, but the Phillies are higher in each of the three previous categories with a .229 team batting average, .358 slugging percentage and .675 OPS. |
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04-09-24 | Marlins v. Yankees -186 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Yankees destroyed Jesus Luzardo, as both Juan Soto and Anthony Volpe took the Marlins’ lefty deep. The Yankees should be fired up to stay hot against another southpaw in A.J. Puk. It’s hard to trust Puk, who served as Miami’s closer for most of the 2023 season. He’s been pretty bad over his first two showings in 2024. Furthermore, the Marlins bullpen holds an ugly 6.11 ERA, whereas the Yankees’ relievers have recorded a 2.88 ERA so far this season. |
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04-08-24 | Dodgers -130 v. Twins | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units James Paxton is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Last season, he met the Twins once as a member of the Red Sox and threw 6.1 frames of a three-run ball in a winning effort. On the other side, Bailey Ober emerged victorious in his lone career start against the Dodgers. Last year, he held the Blue Crew to one earned run on six hits. I’m backing the Dodgers because of their scary lineup. The Dodgers lead the majors in home runs (15) and are third in OPS (.816). They are hitting a strong .298/.373/.477 against the right-handed pitchers, and it’s hard to trust Bailey Ober in this matchup. The Dodgers are 12-1 in their last 13 meetings with the Twins. |
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04-08-24 | Marlins v. Yankees -142 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have won seven of their last nine games. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least five runs in three of their last four games. They will play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against left-handers and they’ve had a lot of success against Luzardo, who gave up five runs in his first two starts. He is 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs in those starts. With Miami also having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Yankees in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games. Even though they played well offensively in their last game, they haven’t looked good on that end so far and scored only 11 runs in their previous four games. Even though Cortez has been shaky on the mound so far, giving up seven runs in two starts, expect the Marlins to struggle offensively in this game because they are batting under .200 against left-handers and Cortez is backed up by one of the best bullpens in the league, so even if they get to him, the damage will be minimized. Go with New York to cover the money line. |
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04-07-24 | Marlins v. Cardinals -129 | 10-3 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is 27th in team ERA, 28th in WHIP and 25th in batting average allowed. The Marlins are not much better at the plate, sitting 25th in team batting average, 26th in on base percentage and 27th in slugging percentage. St Louis is slightly better on the mound with the 18th-best ERA. Miami starter Max Meyer had a solid outing in his season debut allowing two runs in five innings including serving up one home run but the Marlins lost nonetheless. Kyle Gibson had a strong debut with St Louis on the mound. Gibson gave up two runs in seven innings to beat the San Diego Padres 6-2 last Monday. Miami has lost eight straight to open the season and the Marlins are 1-9 over the last 10 games played on the road versus St Louis. St Louis has won four of its last six. |
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04-07-24 | Mariners v. Brewers -112 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Brewers have won five of their last six games. They are playing well offensively and scored 12 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because they’re batting over .270 against right-handers and Hancock didn’t look good on the mound in his first start, giving up three runs in five innings. With Seattle’s bullpen also struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Mariners have lost three straight games. They are struggling offensively, scoring seven runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they’re barely batting over .200 against right-handers and Rea looked good on the mound in his first start, giving up only one run. With Milwaukee’s bullpen also playing well, they won’t have trouble keeping Seattle’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line. |
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04-06-24 | Marlins v. Cardinals -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Marlins team is in absolute shambles right now, so there’s just no way that I can back them in this spot. Steven Matz gets the nod, and the southpaw has owned this Miami roster throughout his career. It’s a slim 31-at-bat sample size, but he’s limited them to a slash line of .194/.219/.258. Furthermore, Matz looked really solid in his season debut against the Dodgers, so I think he may parlay that performance into another respectable start against the floundering Fish. I believe the Red Birds have the edge in starting pitching, the bullpen, and offensively. Let’s not overthink this one, let’s lock in St. Louis at home. |
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04-05-24 | Red Sox -102 v. Angels | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams come into this game with momentum as they each earned road sweeps in their early week series. Neither team beat a juggernaut as the Red Sox swept the A’s while the Angels swept the winless Marlins but you take your wins where you can get them. Boston has been solid so far this season and they have the advantage on the bump in this contest with Crawford looking sharp in his debut. Meanwhile, Canning was roughed up by the Orioles in his season debut and the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now. Look for the Red Sox to ding Canning and put this one in the win column. |
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04-05-24 | Mets v. Reds -117 | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets will send left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA) to the mound in the series opener at Cincinnati. Quintana allowed six hits and two runs over 4 2/3 innings and took a 3-1 loss against the Milwaukee Brewers on March 29 in the season opener. In his career against the Reds, Quintana is 5-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 14 games (13 starts). The Reds will counter with Hunter Greene (0-0, 3.86), also making his second start of the season. The right-hander was the victim of some shoddy fielding behind him in the Washington Nationals' 7-6 comeback win on Saturday. Greene allowed five hits and just two runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out seven and walking four in a no-decision. |
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04-05-24 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -146 | 3-0 | Loss | -146 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees will attempt to keep Toronto's offense quiet by starting former Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA). He made his Yankee debut Saturday and allowed three unearned runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-3 win at Houston. Stroman is making his second start against the Blue Jays since they traded him to the New York Mets in 2019. He faced them on Aug. 30, 2022 for the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run in five innings of a no-decision. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings Saturday against the Rays, starts for Toronto. He is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the Yankees. |
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04-04-24 | Marlins v. Cardinals -145 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Cardinals began their season by going 3-4 in California against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the reeling Marlins lost all seven games of their opening homestand against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels. St. Louis starter, Lynn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start of the season on Saturday. He allowed four hits, walked one and struck out five before a rain delay cut short his outing. The Marlins will counter Lynn with left-hander Ryan Weathers (0-1, 6.75 ERA). He is part of a Miami rotation that is missing injured starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. Weathers allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings during a 9-3 loss to the Pirates during his season debut on Saturday. He needed 94 pitches to get 12 outs. I love betting on teams in their home openers when it makes sense. This one makes sense. |
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04-03-24 | Red Sox -155 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red Sox starters were stunning through the first five games of the season, combining to allow just five runs (four earned) across 28 innings, good for an ERA of 1.29. Of the five pitchers who started, Pivetta (0-1, 1.50 ERA) was among three who worked six innings, while the other two lasted five. Opponents mustered 17 hits against the starting rotation, which racked up 37 strikeouts against just one walk. Pivetta is 5-0 with a glistening 0.82 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Oakland. Fellow right-hander Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.20 ERA) will oppose Pivetta today after allowing five runs (four earned) and seven hits in five innings against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Stripling was tagged with the loss, and he hasn't picked up a win since Oct. 1, 2022, while pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays. |
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04-02-24 | Red Sox -142 v. A's | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alex Wood's first start was horrible, and in this start (in the same building), he has an offense that should be even tougher. Oakland's bullpen can't be trusted to stop any bleeding. Expect Boston's offense to have a great night. Bello is facing an offense that was MLB's worst a year ago and didn't make any significant moves that project to change that for 2024. Through four games, the Athletics have drawn walks at a decent rate, and that's about it. Bello didn't issue a single walk in his first start, a strong winning effort. |
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04-02-24 | Royals v. Orioles -162 | 4-1 | Loss | -162 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore looked excellent in their first two games of the season, scoring at least 11 runs in each game, and now they will be playing a pitcher who was only 3-9 last season. Alec Marsh is starting for the Royals, he struggled last year and only had a 5.69 ERA. The Baltimore bats will get hot in this one, as Henderson and Santander are both off to a quick start to the 2024 season. Baltimore has 25 runs through their first three games, while KC only had 13, and 11 of them came in one game. The Royals hit five homers in their only win, but have shown very little offensive production outside that. The Baltimore pitching staff has five more strikeouts than the Royals, and are beating them in virtually every category. |
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04-01-24 | Cardinals v. Padres -105 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Six games into a 162-game season, the San Diego Padres are showing the type of offensive punch they so often lacked last year. Sunday's 13-4 rout of the San Francisco Giants marked their second double-figure game and gave them 45 runs, an average of 7.5 runs per game. They collected five doubles and two homers in the first three innings alone. San Diego will try to keep up that prodigious production tonight when it welcomes the St. Louis Cardinals to town for the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals arrive in San Diego after a difficult 5-4 loss Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers. St. Louis was in position to split its opening series of the season after taking a 4-0 lead in the sixth but its bullpen coughed up the lead, denying Steven Matz a win. Matz's 5 1/3 innings tied Zack Thompson for the longest stint any of the team's four starters enjoyed in Los Angeles. That means the Cardinals could use a long outing from one of their free agent acquisitions, veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson, who gets the start today. Coming off a 15-9 season in 2023 for the American League East champion Baltimore Orioles, Gibson would like to improve on his 4.73 ERA. He'll make his sixth career start against San Diego, going 2-1 with a 4.28 ERA in the previous five and 1-0 with a 6.32 ERA in three outings at Petco Park. Finally, last year teams that played on Sunday night and had to travel seemed to never win when having to play Monday in a quick turnaround, and that's where the Cardinals are tonight. |
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04-01-24 | Royals v. Orioles -143 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Did the Royals empty their tank on Sunday? After scoring just two runs in their first two games, they broke out offensively in the series finale. I'm not so sure they can sustain their offensive momentum tomorrow, however. Baltimore SP Kremer was a solid bet at home last season and was 11-3 with a 3.70 ERA in 22 night games, as well. I'm also betting on the O's offense to come back to life. After throttling the Angels for 24 combined runs in their first two games, they managed just one run through seven innings on Sunday. Wacha's ERA was nearly 1.5 runs higher on the road than at home in 2023. His first start for Kansas City will be challenging — I would rather back Kremer today. |
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03-31-24 | Angels v. Orioles -140 | 4-1 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels already had a team meeting to attempt to rebuild confidence in the team. This meetings rarely ever rebuild confidence, as the team knows things are already not looking good. Baltimore scored 24 runs in their first two games against Los Angeles, and now they are taking on their third best pitcher. Detmers had a 4.48 ERA last season, and the Baltimore bats will be able to put up numbers again here. In just two games, the Orioles have four players that already have three hits, their lineup is a well-oiled machine, and it starts at the top. Henderson has been excellent this season, and will keep the momentum going here against a Los Angeles team that may be hitting the panic button too early. |
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03-30-24 | Angels v. Orioles -155 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Canning has been a bit of a project, teasing Angels fans with upside but failing to sustain success. His first start of the 2024 season will be a challenge, as Baltimore is fired up and coming off an 11-run shellacking of LA on Opening Day. I'm betting the O's bats will come to life again after a day off on Friday, chasing Canning from the game early. With early run support, Rodriguez will shine, building off of his late-season success in 2023 (2-1 with a 2.64 ERA in August and 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in September). |
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03-29-24 | Guardians -129 v. A's | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians had a very good pitching staff last season and they have one of their best pitchers taking the mound in this game. The Athletics had one of the worst offenses in the league and they’re bringing back the core of that team. They didn’t have a lot of success against left-handers and didn’t play well when they faced Allen, who gave up two hits and no runs in his lone start against them. With Cleveland also having a good bullpen, they will keep Oakland’s offense in check. The Athletics also had one of the worst pitching in the league last season. Even though they added some depth in the offseason, Stripling didn’t look good on the mound last season, finishing with an ERA that was over 5. He gave up four runs in four innings in his last start against the Guardians and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. Go with Cleveland to cover the money line. |
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03-28-24 | Angels v. Orioles -176 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units While the Angels will be without their former two-way ace, the Orioles went out and added one as right-hander Corbin Burnes will get the Opening Day assignment for Baltimore. Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA and league-best 1.069 WHIP (walks and hits to innings pitched ratio) last season. The 29-year-old was acquired in a February trade after Baltimore won the American League East in 2023 but was roughed up by Texas hitters in a three-game AL Division Series sweep. Burnes allowed two runs, one unearned, in 5 1/3 innings in his final spring training start. He gave up five hits and struck out four in 57 pitches and then turned his attention to the Angels. The Orioles will also have a new closer, 35-year-old Craig Kimbrel, signed as a free agent this past winter. Kimbrel, owner of 417 career saves, fills in for All-Star right-hander Felix Bautista, who will miss 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -154 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zac Gallen was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the regular season and regularly got the Diamondbacks deep into games and to the backend of their bullpen. In the playoffs, that hasn't been the case. Gallen has only one quality start in the postseason and he has consistently been hit hard, particularly with fastballs up in the zone. In fact, Gallen's weariness has shown up in his strikeout rate which has dropped by more than four per game in the playoffs. On the other side, Eovaldi has only gotten better as the season turned to October. The playoff-savvy righty has won all four of his starts this postseason and has pitched at least six innings in each of his four starts. While Gallen has struggled with runners in scoring position, Eovaldi has thrived. Eovaldi had the best ERA in baseball with RISP in the regular season and that trend has continued in the postseason. While the D-backs have gotten solid offensive production out of Marte, with his 16-game hitting streak, and Carroll seems to be heating up, the Diamondbacks have less threats all across their lineup. The Rangers, meanwhile, are loaded with hitting threats throughout the lineup with Corey Seager, Evan Carter and Josh Jung combing for seven home runs and all hitting at or near .300 in the playoffs. That doesn't include red-hot Adolis Garcia who has seven home runs himself and 20 RBI in the playoffs. This series will be fascinating but game one won't be quite as interesting. |
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10-23-23 | Rangers v. Astros -122 | 11-4 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers and Astros have failed to protect their home field in all six games of this series thus far. The Rangers are now 7-0 on the road in the postseason after being a relatively mediocre road team this season. The Astros are 40-46 overall at home this season and 1-4 at home in the postseason. Despite that, I'm leaning toward the Astros in the seventh and deciding game. The Astros will be sending Javier to the hill and his postseason track record over the last two postseasons has been remarkable. He has an ERA under one and a half in five appearances, including four starts. He is a perfect 4-0 in that time and allowed a total of just six hits in 23.2 innings of work. Javier has a fairly rested backend of the bullpen, particularly the closer Ryan Pressly, ready to go behind him. The Rangers will start Scherzer but I'm certainly concerned with the righty's ability to get very deep into this start after going four innings in his return in game three. Scherzer is a gamer but his stuff is not nearly as dominant as it was in 2019 when he led the Nationals to the World Title. The Rangers are built to win when their starters get deep into games and Bochy can manipulate the bullpen with the right matchups to close out the game, as he was able to do in games 1, 2, and 6. When his starters don't get deep into the game, Bochy's bullpen is exposed. I expect that to happen again. |
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10-21-23 | Phillies -121 v. Diamondbacks | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona found some life in Game 3 by winning in walk-off fashion and pulled an incredible win out in Game 4, but the question is whether the Snakes can conjure up that kind of magic two more times to win the series. We saw this pitching matchup at Citizens Bank Park Monday night with Wheeler dealing for six strong frames while Gallen was tagged for three homers en route to giving up five runs in five innings. The Phillies still have the stronger pitching as they were solid even in the Game 3 defeat. We’ve seen Philadelphia’s bats do the job in the postseason time and again: that should be the case here as the Phillies earn the win as Wheeler turns in another solid outing. |
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10-20-23 | Astros +100 v. Rangers | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This afternoon's matchup between the Astros and Rangers appears to be the immovable object against the unstoppable force. The Astros are undefeated on the road in the playoffs and had the best road record in baseball this season. The Rangers are a perfect 3-0 in games started by Friday's starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery. The Astros have their own postseason hero going in this game in Justin Verlander, however. Verlander is 1-1 this postseason after game one's loss to the Rangers but the righty allowed just two runs in the game while giving Houston his second straight quality start of the postseason. Verlander is also 7-3 on the road this season with an ERA just over 3.00. He will be backed by an Astros' offense that has absolutely feasted at Globe Life Field. Following Thursday night's win, the Astros have won eight of their last nine games played at Texas and have hit an incredible 26 home runs as a team while averaging 8.9 runs per game. The Rangers have scored just 40 runs in that same span against the Astros. Jose Altuve has been a one-man wrecking crew at Globe Life Field, hitting eight home runs there this year including one in this series. The Astros' bullpen will be rested and ready to back Verlander in the late innings once again and, this time, Verlander should have offensive support behind him. |
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10-19-23 | Astros +102 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 102 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game four is by far the most intriguing game of this ALCS thus far. Both teams were rather mum on the starter for this game although the moves by each manager in game three seem to have established Urquidy vs. Heaney as the initial matchup for game four. Both pitchers will have a short leash in game four as the Astros look to knot the series while the Rangers look to take a daunting 3-1 lead. Urquidy is the more established postseason pitcher in this matchup with 13 appearances in his career in October. He will be backed up by starters Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the early innings and then the usual suspects out of the Astros bullpen from the fifth inning on. The Rangers will likely turn to Heaney with his solid showings against Houston this season and he will be backed up by Dane Dunning in the early innings. The emergence of Jose Altuve in game three and then the patience shown by Kyle Tucker at the plate should give the Astros lineup a huge boost. The Rangers' offense has cooled a bit in this series with two runs in game one and then four runs through two innings in game two before going hitless through the fourth inning in game three. The streaky Rangers will need to find their relentless offense again soon. I like the Astros to knot this series in game four with big games from all the big bats, particularly Altuve, Tucker and the red-hot Yordan Alvarez. Their bullpen was touched up for three runs in game three but they didn't have to use Phil Maton or Rafael Montero. The Rangers bullpen will be rested with all the primary relievers rested in game three but they looked shaky in game two. The Astros will turn the pressure on in game four and use their experience to knot this series heading into game five. |
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10-18-23 | Astros +114 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm going with the defending champs to pick up their first series win tonight. Scherzer is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers of this generation but comes into this game pitching for the first time in over a month. He also was hit hard in two starts against the Astros this season, coughing up four home runs in the process. He no longer has the kind of velocity to challenge hitters and he may struggle with location on Wednesday in his first start since September 12th. Javier was also hit hard this season by Texas, with a no-decision in his only start against them. He didn't last five innings in the game, however. The postseason has been a different thing altogether for Javier in the past few seasons. He stormed his way to a 3-0 mark in last year's postseason and picked up a win in his only start this year. Javier is now 4-0 in his last five postseason starts while allowing just three hits in 17.2 innings of work. Lost in yet another Rangers' win on Monday was the offense cooling off over the final six innings. In fact, the Astros bullpen has been nearly un-hittable in the series and has yet to allow a run in two games. Unfortunately, Houston hasn't been able to combine their offense with their pitching yet in the series. The Astros are under .500 on the season at home this year but have the best road record in baseball. |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks +152 v. Phillies | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are enjoying an incredible run, winning all five playoff games and doing so against division winners. They swept Milwaukee and easily swept the Dodgers by outscoring them 19-6. Arizona is known for the hitting but the pitching has been incredible, allowing three or fewer runs in all five postseason games. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen limited the Brewers and Dodgers to just two runs spanning 11.1 innings in this postseason. Gallen has dominated the Phillies throughout his career, sporting a dazzling 2.22 ERA and a 3-1 record in 24.1 innings. While the Phillies have also been dominant, Arizona scored four runs against Wheeler in the first meeting this season. Arizona has won all four playoff road games. |
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10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The numbers heading into game two point in many ways to the Rangers taking a 2-0 lead in this series. They have won six straight games, Nathan Eovaldi is 2-0 in the playoffs, and the Astros are now four games under .500 at home this season. Intangibles still count for something, but I will back this Astros team coming off a World Series title and making their seventh straight appearance in the ALCS. Houston turns to lefty Framber Valdez in game two and, while the lefty is just 1-2 against the Rangers this season and 0-1 in this postseason, his career mark of 7-3 in the playoffs proves he is a big-game pitcher. On Monday afternoon, Valdez will need to be all that and more against the Rangers. One thing to note from Sunday night's game is the Rangers' quiet night at the plate. The Rangers have been notoriously streaky at the plate and were quiet in game one with just six hits. The Astros' bats were equally quiet in game one but watch out for a big night from Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is hitting .714 in his career vs. Eovaldi including a home run and a double with 3 RBI. Kyle Tucker, who has struggled in the playoffs, is hitting .333 with a home run in his career vs. Eovaldi. Lastly, Houston should have Michael Brantley in at DH vs. Eovaldi and he has a home run and five RBI in his career against the veteran Rangers' righty. I expect the Astros' heavy hitters to lead the way this afternoon and help tie this series up. |
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10-15-23 | Rangers v. Astros -131 | 2-0 | Loss | -131 | 35 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the regular season can't be used as a full barometer of things to come, the Astros did take nine of the 13 meetings between the two teams this season. More importantly, the Astros closed with wins in seven of their final eight games against the Rangers. Houston pounded out a whopping 30 home runs against the Rangers in the 13 games including 25 in the last seven meetings. The Astros' power surge has continued in the playoffs with 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. The addition of former MVP Abreu seemed to be a modest one for much of the season but he has caught fire in the postseason with three home runs in his last two games and should be chomping at the bit to face the left-handed Montgomery. The Rangers will not be lacking in offense either, however, as they rank first in the playoffs with six runs per game after finishing third overall during the regular season. The big edge for Houston in this game and this series is in the bullpen. While Texas has the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the playoffs, they have not been put into too many high-leverage situations thus far and the team has relied on manager Bochy to cobble together pitchers in the late innings. During the regular season, that was very apparent with Texas' bullpen ranking 24th in ERA in baseball. The Astros bullpen, while lacking any left-handed arms, is well constructed and roles are well defined. Houston finished the regular season with the league's sixth-best bullpen ERA and it was their bullpen that carried them to the World Series last season. Closer Ryan Pressley is a perfect 13-of-13 in save chances in the postseason in his career. Verlander can and will at least match Montgomery in innings in the opener and hand the ball over to a more capable bullpen. |
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10-11-23 | Astros +111 v. Twins | 3-2 | Win | 111 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston has been reliable in big spots, while Minnesota is finally feeling like a winner again. That doesn't work in the Twins' favor today, even at home. I'm betting on the Astros to win straight-up! A lot has been made about Houston's game-four starter, but not enough has been said about Ryan's inexperience and lack of success post-All-Star weekend. The young right-hander appeared to be an ace earlier this season but was a shell of himself in the second half. He was roughed up in his last start and didn't pitch in the Twins' Wild Card round despite being next up in the rotation. I doubt that boosted his ego — now he gets to face the defending champs in a much more important game. If Houston's starter lasts five or six innings, that will be a victory. At the end of the day, though, the onus is on the Astros' lineup to come up clutch. Early run production will be crucial, as well. The same pieces are in place that led this ballclub to a World Series title in 2022 — now it's time to do it again. |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game one was a surprising result but this is a veteran Dodgers squad who won’t be rattled. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen was not able to contain the Dodgers this season. The veteran squandered five runs in 4.2 innings in the first meeting and six runs in 5.1 innings in the second one. The Dodgers bashed four home runs against him. Dodgers’ starter Bobby Miller shut down the Diamondbacks this season, conceding just four runs in 12 innings. The Dodgers won those games by 2-0 and 7-4 scores. Miller posted a solid 3.21 ERA in August and a 3.57 ERA in September. This is a must-win game for the Dodgers and I expect the veteran squad to come through with a convincing home win. |
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10-08-23 | Twins +120 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 120 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units López continued to impress in the postseason after holding nine of his last 11 opponents to three or fewer runs. He's part of a Twins rotation that led the big leagues in Ks, and he had better walk numbers than his counterpart Valdez. He and the Minnesota bullpen possess the high-octane stuff that will make life difficult for Houston in game two. Valdez wasn't a reliable pitcher in the second half of the season, surrendering ten runs (nine earned) and eight walks in his last two outings. He gave up four-plus runs in nine of his last 16 appearances and walked two or more batters in 11 of those starts. The southpaw also gave up a career-high 19 home runs this year. That will be problematic against Minnesota (AL-leading 233 long balls). |
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10-08-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -111 | 11-8 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles are in a tough spot here with Montgomery taking the hill for the Rangers today. Montgomery has been outstanding in his last five starts with an ERA under one in that span. He has also gone at least seven innings in four of those five starts. He will, however, face an Orioles team that now has their legs under them after Saturday's game. The Orioles have consistently bounced back this season after a loss. The Orioles have had only two losing streaks as long as four games all season. Also, the last time the Rangers faced Rodriguez, he was struggling and soon to be sent to the minor leagues. Since then, he has been a completely different pitcher and has been arguably the team's best pitcher down the stretch. His K/9 rate is over ten in his last five starts which will play well against a Rangers' lineup that has struck out 37 times in the last three games. The Orioles lineup, while struggling to produce runs in the opener, did earn five walks and worked the pitch count. The Rangers burned through six pitchers on Saturday and the Orioles will continue to try to work counts and get Montgomery out prior to the seventh. I like the Orioles' chances the second time around against the Rangers' bullpen. |
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10-07-23 | Twins v. Astros -145 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a must-win game for Houston, as the Twins are confident and eager to get back home. Stealing a game at Minute Maid Park would be huge for a Minnesota team that fed off the Target Field crowd last series. With that said, I believe the Astros' experience will speak louder than the Twins' passion on Saturday. The acquisition of Verlander put Houston firmly back into the mix in the AL title race, and there's no reason to believe he'll let his team down. The Twins led the AL in home runs, but their offense relies too heavily on the long ball. They also struck out more than any team in baseball this year. Verlander didn't give up a homer in his last three starts after surrendering seven in his first three outings of September. He'll keep the Twins in the yard on Saturday, giving the Astros the quality start they need to win. Minnesota's pitching staff led the league in strikeouts, but Houston's lineup struck out in just 19.8 percent of its ABs this season, the lowest of any team in the postseason. The 'Stros make consistent contact, too, boasting the fifth-lowest whiff rate during the regular season. Ober fanned 17 batters in his last two starts, but those outings were against Oakland and Colorado. The playoff-ready Astros won't make it easy for him or any other Twins pitcher, working their at-bats until they score. |
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10-07-23 | Rangers v. Orioles -129 | 3-2 | Loss | -129 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Late Friday evening, the Rangers named left-hander Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA) their Game 1 starter, while right-hander Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83 ERA) will go for Baltimore. Bradish, 27, has been on extended roll. He went 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA in 11 starts during August and September, striking out 73 batters while walking 17 in 64 2/3 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .178 batting average. Including a brief two-inning effort on Sunday, he has thrown 16 consecutive scoreless innings in his past three starts. Orioles pitchers finished fifth in the American League with a 3.89 ERA while the Rangers were 10th at 4.28. Baltimore will be without closer Felix Bautista but still should have the edge in the bullpen, where its relievers pitched to a 3.55 ERA while Texas finished at 4.77. |
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -143 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies' recent playoff experience showed out in game one as they scored four times in the game despite a lack of power against five different Marlins pitchers. Meanwhile, the Marlins continued their postseason playoff run drought. They have now scored just one run in the team's last three postseason games. The Phillies should also have the advantage in game two with the playoff-savvy Nola taking on Marlins' lefty Garrett. Garrett pitched well down the stretch but posted a 5.40 ERA against the Phillies this year and will be pitching in front of a rabid Philadelphia crowd on Wednesday night. While Nola has not been at his best against the Marlins this season, he is not uncomfortable pitching on a big stage after making five postseason starts last season for the Phillies. He started twice in front of the home crowd last postseason and has a 2.70 ERA. The Marlins poured through five pitchers in game one thanks to Luzardo's exit after four innings. If Garrett falters early, the Marlins' bullpen will have trouble duplicating Tuesday night's performance. |
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10-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins -128 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gray has been one of the game's best starters in 2023, holding 21 of his 32 opponents to two or fewer runs. He was 11th in the AL in innings pitched and 13th in strikeouts, too. With a couple of months of momentum on his side, I'm betting on Gray to turn in a quality start on Wednesday at home (2.67 ERA in 17 starts at Target Field). Berríos has been less effective, giving up eight runs in his last two starts and four-plus runs in five of his last ten outings. The Twins scored 4.8 runs per game at home in 2023, slashing .249 BA/.332 OBP/.448 SLG/.780 OPS in 81 games at Target Field. They have been on a tear since the All-Star break, too (.257 BA/.346 OBP/.462 SLG/.808 OPS in 71 games). |
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10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays -149 | 7-1 | Loss | -149 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eflin gets a chance to live up to the big money deal he signed in the offseason as one of the lone remaining starters standing in the Rays’ rotation. He pitched well in the postseason for the Phillies a season ago and has the edge of the Rangers’ hitters not being overly familiar with his stuff. Eovaldi was a stabilizing force for the Rangers this season but he came apart down the stretch. After missing six-plus weeks and returning on September 5, he went just 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA with 13 walks and 21 strikeouts while allowing seven homers in 20.1 innings in six outings. Opposing hitters lit him up to the tune of a .313/.418/.602 slash line in that stretch. Facing a Tampa Bay lineup that blasted 233 homers this season is going to be an uphill task. Give the advantage to Tampa Bay as they earn the victory here. |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -150 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a matchup of two very familiar foes, I'm going with the home team in game one. On the season, the Marlins won the season series 7-6 over the Phillies but the Phillies did win four of the last seven meetings. Opposing lefties have an ERA of nearly five and a half at Citizens Bank Park this season, which is the task facing Marlins' lefty Luzardo. He was 2-0 on the season against the Phillies but was far from dominant in his two wins. Luzardo has also been a much better pitcher at home than on the road this season. Phillies' starter Wheeler was stellar down the stretch with a 3-0 record in his last five starts. Wheeler is also the more experienced big-game pitcher in this game after being one of the key pitchers in the Phillies' march to the World Series last year. Wheeler had an ERA of 2.78 in the 2022 postseason. The Phillies' key to victory will be with the long ball and they are especially dangerous at home in that department. |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -171 | 6-3 | Loss | -171 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt as they had to use Kelly and Gallen on the weekend. This is not ideal considering Pfaadt did not have success. The rookie posted a 4.32 ERA in September and issued a poor 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 96 innings on the season. The Brewers have been outstanding at home, winning eight consecutive home series. Corbin Burnes is rested and has allowed just four runs in his last 22 innings pitched. He has registered a solid 3.77 career ERA against the Diamondbacks. Woodruff has dominated in his brief work in the postseason, allowing just two runs in 15 career innings. I don’t expect this game to go down to the late innings but if it does, the Brewers have the stronger pen. |
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10-01-23 | Guardians v. Tigers -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The stars seem to be perfectly aligned for the Tigers today. They need the win to jump three spots in the standings from last season and finish in second place. They also send out Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound this season and the lefty has dominated the Guardians this season. He is perfect in three starts against them, all quality starts, and his ERA is under one in those three turns. Finally, and most importantly, the Tigers and their fans send off future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera in the final game of his illustrious career. Expect the game to be emotional and all about the veteran stars. The Guardians will step back and let the well-respected Cabrera have his moment and will fall to the Tigers to close out a disappointing season. |
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10-01-23 | Rangers +110 v. Mariners | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Late on Saturday night, the Rangers watched the Astros win 1-0 over the Diamondbacks to remain alive for the AL West crown. The Rangers now have a huge game to play today to try and avoid having to play in the wildcard round this week. Dunning will be facing a Mariners' lineup that certainly will not have the same fire as they would have if the playoffs were on the line and one that may very well likely rest several players. The Rangers will be playing all their starters on Sunday to clinch the division. Seattle starter Kirby has been a bit up and down during the stretch and may also be given a much shorter hook here with the season over for the Mariners. I expect the Rangers to be the more motivated team, even if the division title isn't up for grabs. |
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10-01-23 | Astros -162 v. Diamondbacks | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Javier, the fourth-year pro held four of his five September opponents to three or fewer earned runs and fanned 11 batters two starts ago vs. Baltimore. He's going to be an important arm in the Houston rotation this postseason. He should be able to tame a D-Backs lineup that slashed just .238 BA/.315 OBP/.374 SLG/.688 OPS in September. |
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09-30-23 | Yankees v. Royals +118 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City's offense putting up more than five runs per game this month already gives them an advantage at the plate on Saturday. Then factor in their better play at home all season (.259/.322/.419 slash line), and they should tee off. Clarke Schmidt already gave up three runs against them in Yankee Stadium. He brings a 5.27 road ERA and 5.33 ERA in his last five starts to Kansas City with him. Expect the Royals to jump ahead early. Pitching has been a concern for Kansas City, but this year's Yankees aren't threatening at the plate at all. New York is scoring fewer than four runs per game in September and has been among the league's lowest-scoring teams all season. Home runs are their great equalizer, but Kauffman Stadium's dimensions should neutralize that. This game will be a Royals win. |
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09-30-23 | Marlins -154 v. Pirates | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are trying to hang on to the final Wildcard spot. They won three of their previous four games against the Pirates this season. They have scored 17 runs in their last four games. They hit the ball well against right-handers and Priester has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 20 runs in his last four home starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Marlins in this game. The Pirates offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and Miami’s pitching has been very good in recent games, with the team holding four of their last five opponents under four runs. They gave up 10 runs in four games against the Pirates this season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Miami to cover the money line. |
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09-30-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays -114 | 7-5 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be an interesting matchup today between the Jays and Rays. With a likely playoff matchup looming, neither team will likely look to play their starters the full game. Both starting pitchers are also likely to be pitching out of the bullpen in the wildcard round with neither in the top-three of their team's rotations. I expect both pitchers to be gone by the end of the fourth inning at the latest as each team protects their pitching staff. The rest of the game should be played by recent call-ups that will not be a part of the playoff roster. I like the home team Jays to be slightly more motivated after going through a bit of a tough stretch in recent games. |
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09-29-23 | Yankees -144 v. Royals | 5-12 | Loss | -144 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are heading to an offseason full of questions as they are missing the postseason. That’s an uncommon thing for the Yankees in recent history but their moves to bolster things failed to deliver. Rodon is a prime example of what fell apart for the franchise as he missed the first three months of the season and never got up to speed after that. Of course, facing a Royals team that is minus arguably their top two starting pitchers in Brady Singer and Brad Keller makes things more difficult for the hosts. The Royals have struggled offensively and Rodon should be able to finish the season on a positive note with a strong outing here. |
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09-29-23 | Padres -139 v. White Sox | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres, who average 4.66 runs per game, should drive in runs at will with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and the rest of the lineup making contact and powering the ball to easily drive in runs. The Padres should also limit a White Sox lineup that averages only 4.01 runs per game with Nick Martinez tossing multiple scoreless innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with the lead. The Padres should win the game with a strong performance on the road. |
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09-28-23 | Rangers +112 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have dominated right-handed pitchers in the last ten days, notching a .895 OPS and 139 wRC+ across 261 plate appearances. Last Saturday, they scored two runs off Logan Gilbert in that 2-0 home win against Seattle. On the other side, the Mariners have registered a .672 OPS and 93 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers over the last ten days (133 plate appearances). They’ve owned the Mariners as of late. Jordan Montgomery has been outstanding over his previous three starts including seven scoreless innings against Seattle, and the Rangers ‘pen has been surprisingly good in the last ten days (3.67 ERA and 2.71 FIP). |
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09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -175 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to go with a Cardinals team playing with a depleted lineup. Several key players are out including Arenado, Contreras, and Gorman. They have dropped five of their last seven games. The Brewers are looking strong heading into the postseason, winning four of their last five series. Cards’ starter Dakota Hudson is struggling, producing a poor 5.93 ERA in his five outings in September. Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes continues to shut down the opposition, allowing just four runs in his last three outings spanning 18 innings. Burnes has a stifling 2.97 ERA in 75 innings in his career against the rivals. |
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09-27-23 | Rangers -154 v. Angels | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Texas Rangers are close to a playoff spot and every game is huge the rest of the way. The Rangers are in a groove. The Angels have been abysmal and have a poor lineup due to the injuries to Trout and Ohtani. They have lost eight of their last ten games. Rangers’ starter Dane Dunning has only conceded four runs in his last 10 innings pitched. He has contained the Angels, limiting them to only three earned runs in 10 innings this season. Angels' pitcher Griffin Canning struggles against the Rangers, allowing 20 runs in 24 career innings against the rivals. |
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09-27-23 | Reds +117 v. Guardians | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have likely run out of steam in terms of earning a wildcard spot but they are certainly in line to earn a winning season in 2023. This will be lefty Abbott's final start of the 2023 season and he will look to go out on a high note after coming out of the gates on fire before cooling off. The Guardians will counter with Bieber who returned from the IL and pitched five innings in his return last week. Bieber has had a difficult season as he transitions from a power pitcher to more of a finesse pitcher who needs to survive with more balls being put in play. Abbott is also 5-1 on the road this season for Cincinnati. The Reds come into this game as the more motivated team and should be able to pull out a win over the Guardians with what is an excellent money line. |
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09-26-23 | Diamondbacks -140 v. White Sox | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have been awful at the plate of late, posting a .671 OPS and 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in the last ten days. On the other side, the Diamondbacks have registered a .744 OPS and 102 wRC+ versus the righties in that span. The Diamondbacks bullpen has done a tremendous job over the last ten days, posting a microscopic 0.65 ERA to go with a 3.80 FIP. The White Sox’s bullpen has recorded a hideous 9.61 ERA and 8.34 FIP during that span. |
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09-26-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -154 | 2-0 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As well as King has pitched since taking on a starter's role, he is still limited in the number of innings he can throw. The Blue Jays' Gausman, however, will have such issues in what might be his last start of the season if all things go right for the Jays. I expect Gausman to once again get deep into the game against a Yankees team that he is averaging just under seven innings per start in his previous three appearances. Gausman is 2-0 against the Yankees and has done an excellent job at keeping the ball out of play with 37 strikeouts in nearly 21 innings pitched. The Yankees' lineup has scored two runs or less in four of their last six games. I don't expect too many contested at-bats from a team already looking ahead to a long offseason. The Jays lineup will do their best to work the pitch count of King to get to the Yankees bullpen. The Jays have much more to play for on Tuesday night and should win this one relatively easily. |
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09-25-23 | Padres -114 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are holding on to fading playoff hopes as they try to make a late push to get back into the playoff picture. With that said, the Padres had won eight straight before losing Saturday night while the Giants have been floundering for the last six or seven weeks. Snell is the presumptive NL Cy Young winner despite his major league-leading walk total as he does a solid job keeping his team in games. Webb has been victimized by a lack of run support in his starts this season and the Giants have struggled to put runs on the board at home. It’s tough to have faith in the home team given their struggles of late. Take the Padres on the road in this contest as they find a way to prevail and keep their faint hopes alive for another day. |
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09-25-23 | Rangers -174 v. Angels | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels sport a 32-43 run line record at home and a 19-27 run line division record this season. Texas hits .273 BA/.349 OBP/.451 SLG/.801 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Sandoval was roughed up by the Rangers last month and is 1-3 in seven career appearances against them. They're in the thick of a competitive division title hunt and will roll to a road victory over the hapless Angels. Gray contained the LA offense in a seven-inning gem last month and should shine again today. The veteran righty has held four of his last five opponents to three runs and has a lower road ERA than at home this year. The Angels are without several key cogs and will be uncompetitive in this series. |
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09-24-23 | Mariners +115 v. Rangers | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have won three of their last four road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 18 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because Eovaldi has been shaky on the mound in recent home starts, giving up seven runs in his last three home starts. He gave up seven runs in his last two home starts against the Mariners, and with Texas having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. The Rangers have won three of their last four games. They are also playing well offensively and scored 29 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because Woo has been brilliant on the mound in recent starts and didn’t give up a run in three of his last four starts. He gave up six runs in his last three road starts, and with Seattle having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Texas’ offense in check. |
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09-24-23 | Brewers v. Marlins +115 | 1-6 | Win | 115 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are still very much in must-win mode while the Brewers NL Central Division title is inevitable. Needing just one win or one Cubs loss, the Brewers' urgency is not nearly as desperate as the Marlins. The Marlins will turn to Cabrera on Sunday at home. Home is the operative word here as Cabrera comes into this matchup with a perfect 6-0 record at home this season and an ERA of just 2.49. He faces a Brewers team that is just 16th in baseball in strikeouts per game while sporting a K/9 rate of over ten himself. I expect a high number of swings and misses from the Brewers in this game. Peralta also has a very impressive K/9 rate but takes on a Marlins team that is fifth in fewest strikeouts per game offensively. |
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09-23-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -184 | 5-2 | Loss | -184 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Diego has won eight straight for the first time since 2021. Nine consecutive wins would match the sixth-longest winning streak in franchise history. The Padres will start right-hander Nick Martinez (5-4, 3.73 ERA) against Cardinals' right-hander Jake Woodford (2-2, 5.31). Overall, Woodford has a 10-6 record with a 4.01 ERA in 78 career appearances (16 starts) with the Cardinals. With St. Louis this season, Woodford has appeared in 13 games (six starts), giving up 26 runs (25 earned) on 51 hits and 19 walks with 28 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. Woodford will be facing the Padres for the first time in 2023. In three career relief appearances against the Padres, Woodford is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA, giving up three runs on six hits and two walks with a strikeout in 3 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Martinez will be making his second straight start for the Padres, but it will be just his eighth start in what will be 62 games in 2023. Over two seasons with the Padres, the 33-year-old Martinez has made 17 starts in 108 appearances. He allowed one hit with five strikeouts over three innings against Oakland last Sunday in his first start since Aug. 8 and only his third since April 19, when Musgrove opened the season on the injured list. |
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09-23-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -121 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers jumped over the Mariners and Astros in the standings last night after their 8-5 win over the Mariners, and I think they gain some more ground tonight. Texas has been extremely productive against right-handed pitching this season (.792 OPS) and will go up against right-hander Logan Gilbert. Through 30 starts, Gilbert owns a respectable 3.77 ERA, but has slightly regressed in September, pitching to a 4.50 ERA across 4 starts. The Rangers’ offense can get hot quick, and they’ve plated 29 runs in their past 3 games. Look for them to stay aggressive. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery counters for the Rangers and is pitching to a 3.38 ERA across 30 starts. Most importantly, Montgomery has been extremely efficient over his past 2 outings, allowing just 1 earned run across 14.0 innings. I give the edge to Montgomery and a potent Rangers’ lineup to grab the win and widen their lead in the standings. |
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09-23-23 | Brewers -116 v. Marlins | 4-5 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Woodruff has been outstanding this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. The only problem has been that a shoulder injury kept him for four months, limiting him to just 10 starts so far. Over his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA. In three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. The Brewers (88-66), who routed the Marlins 16-1 in the series opener on Friday, are closing in on their third NL Central title in the past six years. Their magic number for the division is one, and they clinched a playoff berth on Friday. he Marlins hope to change their fortunes today behind left-hander Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.68 ERA). Luzardo, a native of Peru who will turn 26 next week, has set career highs in wins, starts (30) and innings (166 1/3). Prior to this season, his career highs in those categories were six victories, 18 starts and 100 1/3 innings. The Marlins are 18-12 this season when Luzardo starts, although he took a pounding on Sept. 11 when facing Woodruff and the Brewers. In that game, Luzardo allowed 10 hits, four walks and six runs in five innings. |
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09-22-23 | Tigers -131 v. A's | 2-8 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Having won six of its last eight games, Detroit now sends impressive prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long (1-0, 2.70 ERA) to the mound to face an A's team that has lost eight straight. The right-hander has pitched the Tigers to a pair of wins in his first two major league starts, striking out a total of 16 in 10 innings. He allowed just one run and two hits over five innings, striking out 11, in his most recent start over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. The 25-year-old has never faced the A's. Waldichuk (3-8, 5.40) pitched Oakland to a 12-3 win at Detroit as a bulk-innings reliever in July, allowing two runs in 4 1/3 innings. It was his only career head-to-head with the Tigers. The left-hander has won just once in 13 appearances since, nine of which have been starts. |
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09-22-23 | Cardinals v. Padres -153 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The St. Louis Cardinals have only won four of their last ten games. The Padres have won four of their last five home bouts. They are enjoying one of their best stretches of the season, winning eight of their last ten games including a series win against the Dodgers. Cardinals’ starter Dakota Hudson has not been reliable. The veteran has squandered 15 runs in his last 14.1 innings and has issued an abysmal 6.75 ERA this month. This is good news for the Padres who are dazzling at the plate, averaging a remarkable 5.9 runs in their last ten games. Padres starter Matt Waldron allowed just two runs last time out and has allowed just four runs in his last 10 home innings. |
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09-22-23 | Orioles -107 v. Guardians | 8-9 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the O's on the road, where they're 50-27 straight-up. Baltimore is finishing strong, slashing .275 BA/.337 OBP/.455 SLG/.792 OPS in September after a strong showing in August (5.9 runs per game). The O's had success against Bieber earlier this season, too. They'll make him work for all his 80 pitches, pushing the Cleveland starter in his first appearance since the All-Star break. The Guardians average 3.7 runs per game at home and will face a starter who has held four of his last five opponents to one or no runs. He held his own in his most recent start, too, limiting the high-scoring Rays to one run. I'm confident he will turn in a quality start for the visitors in another important game for Baltimore's title chase. |
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09-21-23 | Pirates v. Cubs -159 | 8-6 | Loss | -159 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to struggle when playing the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have completely dominated the rivals, winning 10 of the 11 meetings. The Pirates have dropped four of their last five road bouts. Pirates’ starter Johan Oviedo has not been sharp, posting a poor 5.11 ERA in his three outings this month. Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks has silenced the Pirates, holding them to three earned runs in 12 innings this season, and has recorded a 3.67 career ERA against the rivals. The Cubs have won all four home games against the Pirates this season. They have also secured the win in three of Hendricks' last four outings. |
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09-21-23 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have struggled to find consistency this season and having to travel from Miami to Philadelphia for this one won't help matters. They lack the pitching to compete on a regular basis and while the lineup has dangerous names, they have struggled to produce and gel together. In the other clubhouse, the Phillies get to lean on a starting pitcher who has only improved over the last month and is pitching the best baseball of his season so far. Their lineup is heavy at the top but even when just one or two bench players contribute, it's more than enough for success and wins to be found. Suarez was successful in his earlier start this season against the Mets and if he can channel that in this one, the sky is the limit for the Phillies in the series opener. |
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09-21-23 | Brewers +100 v. Cardinals | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have won four of their last six games and three of their last five road games and have scored 18 runs in their last four games. St. Louis starter Mikolas has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 15 runs in his last three home starts and with St. Louis having the eighth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Cardinals have lost three of their last five games and have struggled offensively and scored only 11 runs in their last four games. Miley has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, especially on the road where he gave up 11 runs in his last six starts. He gave up one run in his last two starts in St. Louis. |
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09-20-23 | Giants +101 v. Diamondbacks | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants always have a great chance to win games when Logan Webb is on the mound. The Giants ace is capable of going seven to eight innings. He limited the Rockies to one run in eight innings last time out. Webb usually silences Arizona, holding the rivals to six runs in 21 innings this season. Merrill Kelly can be shaky. He just gave up seven runs to the Mets and has surrendered 16 runs in his last four outings spanning 22.2 innings. Arizona has only won in four of Kelly’s last ten outings. The Giants have beaten the Diamondbacks in three of their last four meetings. |
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09-20-23 | White Sox v. Nationals -125 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have lost five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games and have only scored 15 runs in their last four games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they haven’t had a lot of success batting against right-handers and Gray has done a decent job on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last two starts. The Nationals have also struggled in recent games, losing six of their last eight games. But, they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Scholtens has struggled on the mound, giving up 14 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two road starts, and with Chicago having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Nationals in this game. |
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09-19-23 | Orioles +145 v. Astros | 9-5 | Win | 145 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles still have not clinched anything in the AL East and need to pick up winnable games like this down the stretch. Astros' starter Brown has struggled over his last five starts with an ERA over seven. He has also been less than effective at home this season with a 4-7 record and an ERA close to six. Brown was also banged up in his one start against the Orioles this season allowing eight hits and five runs including two home runs. The Orioles' Gibson has an ERA close to five but he also has 16 quality starts and a team-leading 14 wins. I expect Gibson to hang in this game and get the Orioles to the back end of their bullpen to put this game away. |
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09-19-23 | Brewers -119 v. Cardinals | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are getting closer to securing the division title. They have won seven of their last eleven games and continue to excel on the mound. The Cardinals have only won four of their last eight games after a series loss to the Phillies. Brewers’ expected bulk pitcher Colin Rea has issued a solid 3.29 ERA this month. Cards’ pitcher Drew Rom is a struggling rookie. He has squandered 17 runs in 22 innings on the year and has only pitched more than five innings in two of his five outings. This is not ideal considering the Cardinals bullpen has a poor 4.53 ERA. |
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09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have lost four straight games and five of their last six home games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only six runs in their last three games haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Woo has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last three starts. He didn’t give up a run in his only start against them and with Seattle having the fifth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Oakland’s cold bats in check The Mariners have lost three of their last five games. They’ve also struggled offensively, but they’ve done a great job batting against left-handers and Sears has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up nine runs in his last four starts. He gave up 12 runs in his last four home starts, and with Oakland having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. |
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09-18-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers -156 | 4-2 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers will get back on track at home today after being swept by the Guardians in Cleveland. Montgomery has held Boston to three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 career outings, including eight consecutive. He bounced back with a strong showing in his last start and will tame a Red Sox lineup that's hitting just .234 BA/.298 OBP/.390 SLG/.689 OPS this month. The Rangers will jump on Crawford early and pile on runs against the Boston bullpen (4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), which has surrendered the fourth-most homers (75) in MLB this year. Texas hits .274 BA/.348 OBP/.492 SLG/.840 OPS at Globe Life Field, scoring 5.8 runs per game. |
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09-18-23 | Guardians -116 v. Royals | 4-6 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams are playing hard despite being out of the playoff picture as the season winds to a close. The Guardians still have a chance to end with a winning season while the Royals are motivated by trying to avoid the team's worst season of all-time. I'm leaning toward the Guardians in this matchup. Quantrill has been far from dominant but he has been efficient since returning from IL. He's gone six innings in each of his three starts since returning and has given up a total of three runs in those starts. The Royals' Singer has seemingly hit the wall after looking sharp in the middle portion of the season. He is 0-3 in his last five starts with an ERA over seven. Look for the Guardians to pick up the road win on Monday afternoon against the struggling Singer. |
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09-17-23 | Tigers -103 v. Angels | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit has won four of its last six overall and seven of the last nine that the Tigers have played on the road. Los Angeles has lost nine of its last 12 played at home and 11 of the last 15 when facing an American League team. Due to injuries, LA is without a combined 57 home runs and 210 RBI. The Angels must also play without a host of starting pitchers and relievers, including relievers Jamie Barria (0-2, 6 saves), Sam Bachman (0-1, 1 save), Austin Warren (0-1) and Jose Quijada (0-1, 4 saves). The four relievers have made a combined 55 appearances. Los Angeles starting pitcher Reid Detmers has a 4.77 ERA, while serving up 19 home runs in 137 ⅔ innings and allowing 73 earned runs. Detmers has walked 54. |
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09-17-23 | Braves -130 v. Marlins | 2-16 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves continue to dominate. They have won five consecutive road series and are a dominant 9-2 against the Marlins this season entering Saturday after the Marlins finally beat them on Friday. The Marlins have not been able to solve Braves' starter Charlie Morton this season. The veteran has limited the rivals to only one run in 12.2 innings this season. Morton is reliable, allowing two or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. Marlins’ pitcher Jesus Luzardo remains inconsistent. He just conceded six runs against the Brewers and has a mediocre 4.38 career ERA against the Braves. |
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09-16-23 | Rays v. Orioles +112 | 0-8 | Win | 112 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore just needs to win one game to salvage something from this series, and they're fortunate it's at home. Tampa Bay isn't a bad team on the road, but they're much worse than when they're in the Trop. Tyler Glasnow has given up at least three runs in both of his starts against the Orioles this year. In one of those, the final damage was six. Grayson Rodriguez has stopped the bleeding at two runs each time he faced the Rays. Rodriguez is also backed up by a bullpen that leads the league in WAR. If there's a team that can survive losing an All-Star closer, it's the 2023 Orioles. Baltimore's pitching gets the job done at home, securing a crucial victory. |
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09-16-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +113 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yankees’ expected starter in this one is Luke Weaver. The veteran has been released by the Reds and Mariners this season due to his struggles. He has squandered eight runs in his last three outings spanning just 10.1 innings. Pirates’ starter Luis Ortiz has been solid recently, allowing two or fewer runs in three consecutive performances spanning 16.1 innings. He just limited the Braves to one run in 5.1 innings last time out. |
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09-15-23 | Cubs -133 v. Diamondbacks | 4-6 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are 19-15 SU as road favorites, and the Diamondbacks are 12-20 SU as home underdogs this season. Chicago has a serious advantage on the mound with Steele facing the rookie Pfaadt. The Cubbies are hitting .266 BA/.335 OBP/.453 SLG/.789 OPS in the second half of the season and have turned it up a notch in night games this year (.265/.343/.437/.779). They knocked around Pfaadt a few days ago at Wrigley and will feel confident against him on Friday with their ace Steele toeing the rubber. The Diamondbacks were outscored 18-2 in their last two games in Queens and will continue to struggle tomorrow against the NL Cy Young award contender. |
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09-15-23 | Twins -168 v. White Sox | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins have won five of their last nine games and four of their last six road games and have scored 29 runs in their last three road games. They’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Scholtens has struggled on the mound for Chicago, giving up nine runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two home starts and with Chicago having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The White Sox have lost four of their last five games and five of their last seven home games. |
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09-15-23 | Rangers -116 v. Guardians | 3-12 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas struggled during most of August but the Rangers have found their mojo, waiting each of the five and have won five of the last six played on the road. Cleveland has lost seven of its last 10 and is close to being eliminated from postseason contention. Texas Rangers starter Jon Gray has been hit hard in each of the last three outings but the Rangers have won each of the three as their bats have stepped up to make up for the below par starts from Gray. In two starts since being acquired by Cleveland, right-hander Lucas Giolito has been roughed up allowing 13 earned runs in only 10 innings pitched and the Guardians have been defeated in both games by a combined score of 26-6. Texas has injuries to key players such as Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia but other talented stars such as Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Johan Heim have stepped up in the absence of the others. |