Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have lost four straight games and five of their last six home games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only six runs in their last three games haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Woo has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last three starts. He didn’t give up a run in his only start against them and with Seattle having the fifth-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Oakland’s cold bats in check The Mariners have lost three of their last five games. They’ve also struggled offensively, but they’ve done a great job batting against left-handers and Sears has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up nine runs in his last four starts. He gave up 12 runs in his last four home starts, and with Oakland having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. |
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09-18-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers -156 | 4-2 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers will get back on track at home today after being swept by the Guardians in Cleveland. Montgomery has held Boston to three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 career outings, including eight consecutive. He bounced back with a strong showing in his last start and will tame a Red Sox lineup that's hitting just .234 BA/.298 OBP/.390 SLG/.689 OPS this month. The Rangers will jump on Crawford early and pile on runs against the Boston bullpen (4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), which has surrendered the fourth-most homers (75) in MLB this year. Texas hits .274 BA/.348 OBP/.492 SLG/.840 OPS at Globe Life Field, scoring 5.8 runs per game. |
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09-18-23 | Guardians -116 v. Royals | 4-6 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams are playing hard despite being out of the playoff picture as the season winds to a close. The Guardians still have a chance to end with a winning season while the Royals are motivated by trying to avoid the team's worst season of all-time. I'm leaning toward the Guardians in this matchup. Quantrill has been far from dominant but he has been efficient since returning from IL. He's gone six innings in each of his three starts since returning and has given up a total of three runs in those starts. The Royals' Singer has seemingly hit the wall after looking sharp in the middle portion of the season. He is 0-3 in his last five starts with an ERA over seven. Look for the Guardians to pick up the road win on Monday afternoon against the struggling Singer. |
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09-17-23 | Tigers -103 v. Angels | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit has won four of its last six overall and seven of the last nine that the Tigers have played on the road. Los Angeles has lost nine of its last 12 played at home and 11 of the last 15 when facing an American League team. Due to injuries, LA is without a combined 57 home runs and 210 RBI. The Angels must also play without a host of starting pitchers and relievers, including relievers Jamie Barria (0-2, 6 saves), Sam Bachman (0-1, 1 save), Austin Warren (0-1) and Jose Quijada (0-1, 4 saves). The four relievers have made a combined 55 appearances. Los Angeles starting pitcher Reid Detmers has a 4.77 ERA, while serving up 19 home runs in 137 ⅔ innings and allowing 73 earned runs. Detmers has walked 54. |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers' offense will likely be chomping at the bit to face Corbin at home on Sunday. Corbin has given up a ton of hits compared to innings pitched and has an ERA over five this season. The Brewers have to feel confident with Woodruff going today. Woodruff is undefeated in his last five starts and has an ERA under two for the season. At home, Woodruff is 3-1 with an ERA of nearly one while piling up strikeouts. Once the Brewers 1A ace along with Corbin Burnes, Woodruff once again has taken on the look of a co-ace. |
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09-17-23 | Braves -130 v. Marlins | 2-16 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves continue to dominate. They have won five consecutive road series and are a dominant 9-2 against the Marlins this season entering Saturday after the Marlins finally beat them on Friday. The Marlins have not been able to solve Braves' starter Charlie Morton this season. The veteran has limited the rivals to only one run in 12.2 innings this season. Morton is reliable, allowing two or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. Marlins’ pitcher Jesus Luzardo remains inconsistent. He just conceded six runs against the Brewers and has a mediocre 4.38 career ERA against the Braves. |
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09-16-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers have everything to play for this weekend while the struggling Nats are just trying to close out their season. Washington has lost four of five heading into this series and the Brewers have won five of seven. The Brewers will be in a great spot on Saturday with their ace, Burnes, on the hill. Despite going 0-2 in his last five starts, Burnes has an ERA under three in that span. The Nats' Williams has an ERA over seven in his last five starts and over five on the road this season in 14 starts. Williams also has been bitten by the long ball this season and the Brewers are a far better home run-hitting team at home this season. Look for the Brewers to move one step closer to the National League Central Division title with a win |
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09-16-23 | Rays v. Orioles +112 | 0-8 | Win | 112 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore just needs to win one game to salvage something from this series, and they're fortunate it's at home. Tampa Bay isn't a bad team on the road, but they're much worse than when they're in the Trop. Tyler Glasnow has given up at least three runs in both of his starts against the Orioles this year. In one of those, the final damage was six. Grayson Rodriguez has stopped the bleeding at two runs each time he faced the Rays. Rodriguez is also backed up by a bullpen that leads the league in WAR. If there's a team that can survive losing an All-Star closer, it's the 2023 Orioles. Baltimore's pitching gets the job done at home, securing a crucial victory. |
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09-16-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +113 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yankees’ expected starter in this one is Luke Weaver. The veteran has been released by the Reds and Mariners this season due to his struggles. He has squandered eight runs in his last three outings spanning just 10.1 innings. Pirates’ starter Luis Ortiz has been solid recently, allowing two or fewer runs in three consecutive performances spanning 16.1 innings. He just limited the Braves to one run in 5.1 innings last time out. |
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09-15-23 | Cubs -133 v. Diamondbacks | 4-6 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are 19-15 SU as road favorites, and the Diamondbacks are 12-20 SU as home underdogs this season. Chicago has a serious advantage on the mound with Steele facing the rookie Pfaadt. The Cubbies are hitting .266 BA/.335 OBP/.453 SLG/.789 OPS in the second half of the season and have turned it up a notch in night games this year (.265/.343/.437/.779). They knocked around Pfaadt a few days ago at Wrigley and will feel confident against him on Friday with their ace Steele toeing the rubber. The Diamondbacks were outscored 18-2 in their last two games in Queens and will continue to struggle tomorrow against the NL Cy Young award contender. |
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09-15-23 | Twins -168 v. White Sox | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins have won five of their last nine games and four of their last six road games and have scored 29 runs in their last three road games. They’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Scholtens has struggled on the mound for Chicago, giving up nine runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two home starts and with Chicago having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The White Sox have lost four of their last five games and five of their last seven home games. |
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09-15-23 | Rangers -116 v. Guardians | 3-12 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas struggled during most of August but the Rangers have found their mojo, waiting each of the five and have won five of the last six played on the road. Cleveland has lost seven of its last 10 and is close to being eliminated from postseason contention. Texas Rangers starter Jon Gray has been hit hard in each of the last three outings but the Rangers have won each of the three as their bats have stepped up to make up for the below par starts from Gray. In two starts since being acquired by Cleveland, right-hander Lucas Giolito has been roughed up allowing 13 earned runs in only 10 innings pitched and the Guardians have been defeated in both games by a combined score of 26-6. Texas has injuries to key players such as Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia but other talented stars such as Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Johan Heim have stepped up in the absence of the others. |
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09-14-23 | Rays v. Orioles -130 | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bradish has arguably been the Orioles' most reliable starter this season and that has never been more evident than in his last five starts when the right-hander has gone 4-0 with an ERA under two and a half. In addition, the Orioles have won each of Bradish's last seven starts heading into Thursday night and he has an ERA under two and a half at home as well. Civale has pitched very well in his stint with the Rays and has been excellent on the road. This game will come down to execution and the Orioles have excelled at that all season. Expect the Orioles to work the pitch count and commit to a small-ball mentality tonight. They are fifth in baseball in sacrifice hits this year and have solid team speed. Baltimore has taken six of the nine games against Tampa Bay this season heading into the series opener. |
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09-14-23 | Rangers +141 v. Blue Jays | 9-2 | Win | 141 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas starting pitcher Nathaniel Eovaldi has had three excellent appearances out of the last four. Over that stretch the right-hander has allowed four earned runs across 10 ⅔ innings, but each of the four runs were in one game, a 14-1 loss to Houston, while the right-hander did not allow any runs in each of the other three outings. Toronto starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has allowed seven runs across the last 17 innings. Both teams have struggled with injuries this season but Texas is missing just one big contributor at the plate in Josh Jung, while Toronto is without Brandon Belt, Matt Chapman and Danny Jensen who have all been productive this season when healthy. |
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09-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -116 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kelly hasn't been the same pitcher on the road as at home this season. Opponents are hitting .262 against him in road starts, compared to .186 at home, with 21 more hits in six fewer innings pitched. He's also struck out 27 fewer batters away from the friendly confines of Chase Field. This has been even more apparent recently. Senga, meanwhile, has been dominant at Citi Field, holding opponents to a .186 batting average with 106 strikeouts in 82 innings. He sports a 2.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 14 home starts, with 22 combined Ks in his last two outings in Queens. The D-Backs, who don't hit as well on the road (.245 BA and .318 OBP), will be his next victims. |
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are plenty of reasons to pick the Blue Jays to win this game. It begins on the mound, where Toronto is significantly better, especially in the bullpen. The starters in this game are about equal, so relief pitching will be one of the greatest factors in this matchup. Offensively, Toronto evens up with Texas on paper because they get to face a lefty. The Blue Jays have a team batting average of .280 against southpaws in 2023. Jordan Montgomery is also a pitcher that they've faced 11 times in his career, including a game earlier this year when they knocked him out after five innings. This game will probably be close until the bullpens come in, and that's when the Blue Jays will pull away for the win. |
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09-13-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Phillies | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Spencer Strider enjoys pitching against the Phillies. The ace has limited them to three runs in 12 innings this season and has a dominating 1.62 ERA and a 6-0 record in six career meetings against the rivals. Phillies pitcher Cris Sanchez recorded a weak 4.88 ERA in August. I recommend the run line considering eight of the Braves' last 10 wins have been by two or more runs. |
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09-13-23 | Rays v. Twins +113 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tampa Bay starting pitchers Taj Bradley has struggled in three of the last four starts. The 22-year old allowed one run in five innings versus Cleveland in his best start of the last four, but gave up a combined 12 runs in 16 ⅓ innings in the other three starts. Minnesota starter Dallas Keuchel has had three solid starts in the last four outings. The southpaw gave up five runs in 3 ⅓ innings to Texas in his worst start of the last four, but in the three others gave up a combined two earned runs in 16 ⅓ innings. Minnesota won each of those four games. |
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09-12-23 | Cubs -171 v. Rockies | 4-6 | Loss | -171 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs slash .263 BA/.342 OBP/.435 SLG/.777 OPS at night (79 GP) and have turned it up in the second half of the season (.263/.333/.453/.786). They're scoring 1.1 more runs per game post-All-Star weekend. Flexen has given up 12 home runs in 13 home appearances (47.1 IP) with a 35:20 K:BB ratio. Chicago's impressive lineup will jump on him early and often. Assad has been dominant on the road, giving up just 29 hits in 41.1 innings, and has also been impressive in night games (1.13 WHIP). He'll fare just fine against a Rockies team hitting .234/.297/.396/.693 in the second half of the season. |
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09-12-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland has lost four of its last six overall and when playing head to head versus Houston, has lost 10 of its last 11. Oakland also struggles on the road as the Athletics have lost 15 of the last 20 away from home. Oakland starter JP Sears has had two straight strong outings, but in two appearances this season versus Houston, has allowed seven runs in 11 ⅔ innings. Houston starting pitcher Justin Verlander has had three strong outings over the last four appearances, allowing a total of seven earned runs across 24 innings but six of the seven runs were in one game while allowing just one run across 18 innings in the other three starts. Houston's lineup top to bottom is much stronger than Oakland’s as the Astros have received excellent production from Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez and others. Houston does not have any of its position players on the injury list. |
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09-12-23 | Braves -118 v. Phillies | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves have won three of their last four games and six of their last seven road games and have scored 17 runs in their last three games. Philadelphia starter Wheeler has been shaky on the mound in recent home starts, giving up eight runs in his last three home starts. With Philadelphia’s bullpen struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Braves in this game. The Phillies have lost three of their last five games and three of their last four home games. Atlanta starter, Fried has done a good job on the mound for the Braves, especially on the road where he has given up only six runs in his last six starts. He gave up three runs in his last two starts against the Phillies, and with Atlanta having the second-best bullpen in the league, they will keep Philadelphia’s offense in check. Go with Atlanta to cover the money line. |
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09-11-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -131 | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Mets in the opener against the playoff-hungry Diamondbacks. Davies has not been sharp for the Diamondbacks this season and comes into this game with an ERA close to seven. Quintana, despite his record of just 2-5 overall, has pitched very well for New York. Quintana has almost consistently given the Mets a quality start and has an ERA under three in his last five starts. The Mets have also won three of their last four home games and scored over five runs per game in that span. Look for Quintana to keep the Diamondbacks off balance and the Mets lineup to power past Davies and the Diamondbacks in game one. |
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09-11-23 | Cardinals v. Orioles -158 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. Louis (63-80) will send right-hander Dakota Hudson (6-1, 4.43 ERA) to the mound against Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer (12-5, 4.07) in the opener. Kremer has been on an extended roll. Over his past eight starts, he is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA while striking out 38 batters and walking 15. The Orioles are 7-1 in those games. Hudson has been up and down over his past three starts. On Aug. 26, he gave up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Then against the Pirates on Sept. 1, he allowed just one run over seven innings of a no-decision. Last time out, he earned a win against the Braves despite allowing five runs on seven hits over five-plus innings on Wednesday. |
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09-11-23 | Braves -139 v. Phillies | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves are reliable on the road. They stand at 8-2 in their last ten road decisions. The Phillies have been mediocre recently. They have lost two of their last three series and are only 4-6 in their last ten bouts. The squad has dropped three of their last four home games. Braves’ starter Charlie Morton has been dominant. The veteran has allowed either zero or one run in four of his last five starts and the Braves have won in four of his last five outings. Phillies pitcher Taijuan Walker has not been sharp recently. He issued a 4.75 ERA last month and gave up four runs in his lone outing this month. |
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09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cubs starter Hendricks has held his last five opponents in August to three or fewer runs and should have similar success today against the D-Backs, who aren't scoring as much in the second half of the season. Arizona's .317 on-base percentage on the road won't help it keep pace with the home team, either. Arizona rookie starter Pfaadt is unreliable, to say the least. He's put eight-plus runners on base in consecutive starts and has given up 17 long balls in 15 starts (74.2 IP). The Cubs' bats will come alive this afternoon — they score 5.2 runs per game at Wrigley Field. |
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09-10-23 | Padres v. Astros -143 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros have won three of their last four games and have scored more than 10 runs in three of their last four games. They’ve done a great job against left-handers this season and Hill has struggled on the mound, giving up 11 runs in his last three starts. He gave up six runs in his last two starts against the Astros and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Padres have lost five of their last seven road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 20 runs in their last three games. France has done a good job on the mound for the Astros, giving up five runs in his previous three starts, so expect him to keep San Diego’s offense in check. |
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09-10-23 | Mariners v. Rays -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays will be in good hands today with the veteran Eflin on the hill at the Trop. Eflin has 10 of his 13 wins this season at home and has been the team's most consistent pitcher this season. He should put up a high strikeout total on Sunday against a Mariners team that is in the top five in strikeouts per game. The Mariners have tentatively tapped Miller to start today but they may decide to push the rookie back another day as they manage the team's rotation with October approaching. I'm going to lean toward the Rays' with the best home record in the American League in the fourth and final game of this series. |
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09-09-23 | Padres v. Astros -127 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to trust Cristian Javier, who’s having a poor second half of the season, but I would take the Astros because their offense has been red-hot as of late. Seth Lugo has pitched very well over the last few weeks, but the Astros hold a 177 wRC+ and 1.021 OPS against right-handed pitchers in September and will properly test the Padres righty. Only three guys from this Houston team have seen Lugo before, combining for two hits in six at-bats. On the other side, the current Padres are 5-for-19 with a pair of home runs against Cristian Javier. San Diego owns a 112 wRC+ and .766 OPS against the righties in September. |
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09-09-23 | Mariners v. Rays -142 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have lost three of their last five games and four of their last seven road games. They haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Civale has done a good job on the mound, especially at home where he gave up nine runs in his last five starts. He gave up four runs in his last two starts against the Mariners and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Tampa Bay to cover the money line. |
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09-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one should be very tight this afternoon at Wrigley. Steele has been great all season and particularly dominant at home in losing just two of his 14 decisions at Wrigley. He is also 3-0 in his last five starts and comes off a 2-0 win over the Giants in which he allowed just two hits while striking out 12 in eight shutout innings of work. Arizona's Kelly is not far behind Steele with his recent work. I expect a low-scoring battle today with a lower percentage of balls being put in play with these two pitchers hurling. I'm going with the Cubs in this one based on their ability to run the bases, play quality defense, and as the hotter of the two teams at the moment. Steele has been the more consistent of the two pitchers in recent outings and he can get the Cubs deep into this game. |
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09-08-23 | Orioles -114 v. Red Sox | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore is a trendy run line bet after a win (51-36 record), on the road (51-20), and as betting favorites (40-36). It should continue to hit against Houck, who has struggled with his command since returning from a facial fracture, hitting three batters in his last outing and walking five combined batters in his other two starts. The Orioles have seen him twice this season (both outings back in April), producing seven runs and 12 hits in ten combined innings. I'm betting on another high-scoring game from Baltimore (5.4 runs/game last month). Bradish has been a reliable pitcher all season, and he hasn't worn down in the dog days of summer. The right-hander posted a 2.12 ERA in August (five starts), surrendering 20 hits with 35 strikeouts in 29.0 combined innings pitched. He's won three straight starts and has been a good bet on the road and in night games in 2023. Baltimore won't need to give Bradish a lot of run support. You're getting a lot of value for a matchup between a true World Series contender and a .500 ballclub! |
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09-08-23 | Dodgers -145 v. Nationals | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington has been decent since the All-Star break but a six-game skid doesn’t necessarily bode well for their chances here. While the Dodgers have struggled with five losses in their last six games and are dealing with rotation issues after Julio Urias was placed on administrative leave earlier this week, the fact remains that they are the second-best team in the National League. Los Angeles also has a ridiculously deep lineup and bench that gives them the ability to pile up runs in support of whoever is on the mound. Sheehan has been up and down, which is to be expected for a rookie. With that said, Gore has sputtered at Nationals Park and could have problems with the Dodgers. Give the edge to the visitors as their offense carries them to the victory. |
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09-08-23 | Cardinals v. Reds -120 | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds will send rookie lefty Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.22 ERA) to the mound in the series opener. Last Saturday, Abbott kept the Reds in the game against the Cubs, allowing one run and four hits over 6 1/3 innings, striking out five and walking two. The Reds rallied in the ninth for a 2-1 win. Abbott has faced the Cardinals once in his career, allowing no runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings earlier this season. The Cardinals will throw rookie left-hander Andrew Rom (0-2, 7.24), looking for his first win in his fourth major league start. Rom will be making a homecoming of sorts, having attended high school at nearby Fort Thomas in Kentucky. Rom, who will face the Reds for the first time in his career, was charged with three runs on five hits over 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Pittsburgh last Saturday in a 7-6 loss. |
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09-07-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -170 | 6-2 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Assad has taken very well to his role as a starter in the Cubs' rotation. In his past five starts, he has gone at least six innings in four of those starts with a high of eight innings against the Reds in his last stint. He has also allowed a total of six runs in his last five starts. Arizona will counter with Nelson, just recalled from the minor leagues. In his previous two starts before being sent down, Nelson allowed 15 hits and 12 runs combined while lasting just 3.1 innings in each start. The Cubs have been playing stellar baseball since the trade deadline, including an 18-9 record in August. The Diamondbacks, after a terrific first half, went just 12-15 in the month of August. I like the Cubs here to lean on Assad and pressure Nelson on the base paths and pick up a much-needed win in game one of this series. |
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09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves will dominate the final game of this series against the struggling Wainwright. The Cardinals' long-time ace has had a difficult year in what may very well be his final season in the big leagues. His ERA is over eight for the season and, in his last five starts, it is approaching 11. This does not bode well in a matchup against the best-hitting team in the big leagues. Wainwright's nearly two WHIP on the season will result in runners on base at all times and a one-sided Braves win. Braves' starter Fried is 3-0 in his last five starts and has an ERA of just 2.52 on the season. Fried does not need a heavy dose of run support but should get more than his share in this start. The Braves have won all three of the meetings with the Cardinals heading into this series as well. While the Cardinals are anxiously awaiting this season to end, the Braves roll on to solidify their place in the standings. |
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09-07-23 | Dodgers v. Marlins +113 | 10-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins have won six of their last eight games and have scored 23 runs in their last three games. Los Angeles’ pitching hasn’t been very good in recent games, with the team giving up at least four runs in four of their last five games. With closer Julio Urías also out due to hit arrest over the weekend, the Dodgers will have a hard time slowing down Miami’s hot bats. The Dodgers have lost four of their last five games and have scored only eight runs in their last three games. They haven’t hit the ball as well against left-handers and Garrett has done a good job on the mound for the Marlins in recent starts, giving up seven runs in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in his last three home starts and will keep Los Angeles’ offense in check. |
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09-06-23 | Orioles -125 v. Angels | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to trust the starting duo in this game, so I’m going with the Orioles because of their strong lineup and exceptional bullpen. Baltimore’s relief pitchers have recorded a 3.03 ERA and 3.67 FIP over the last ten days (29.2 IP), whereas the Angels bullpen has accounted for an ugly 8.69 ERA and 6.54 FIP across 29 innings of work in that span. The Orioles have done a good job against the southpaws so far this season. Since August 15, they’ve notched a 119 wRC+ and .200 ISO versus left-handed pitchers. On the other side, the Angels have registered a 96 wRC+ and .187 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past three weeks. |
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09-06-23 | Blue Jays -165 v. A's | 2-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winning seemed easy for Ryu (3-1, 2.48 ERA) last month, particularly over his final three starts. In all, he is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last five starts (including his most recent on Sept. 1). In three of those outings he did not allow an earned run. The Blue Jays have won all five of those games. The 36-year-old has never lost to the A's in three career starts, going 2-0 with a 5.40 ERA. The Blue Jays backed him with 10 runs of support the only previous time he's started a game in Oakland, a 10-4 win in May of 2021. Toronto has put up a total of 13 runs in its first two games in this series. The A's will send lefty JP Sears (3-11, 4.60) to the mound in the series finale. It will be the first time Sears faces the Blue Jays since making his major league debut for the New York Yankees against Toronto last April. |
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09-06-23 | Twins -120 v. Guardians | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Joe Ryan will try for his 11th win of the season as the Minnesota Twins attempt to complete a three-game series sweep of the host Cleveland Guardians this afternoon. Ryan (10-8, 4.20 ERA) is 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts against the Guardians, including 2-1 with a sparkling 0.87 ERA in three starts at Progressive Field. Cleveland (66-73), which trails Minnesota (73-66) by seven games in the American League Central with just 23 games remaining, will start rookie right-hander Gavin Williams (1-5, 3.46) in an effort to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Williams pitched one scoreless inning as an opener in a 4-2 victory over the Twins on Aug. 29, his only career appearance against Minnesota. He got out of a bases-loaded jam by getting Royce Lewis to pop out, no small accomplishment considering Lewis had hit grand slams in back-to-back games entering that contest and smashed another in a 20-6 victory in Monday's series opener. Minnesota followed Monday's blowout win with an 8-3 victory on Tuesday to clinch what many viewed as a make-or-break series for Cleveland's division-title hopes. Donovan Solano hit a three-run triple to highlight a five-run eighth inning for the Twins, who improved to 4-1 on their current six-game road trip. |
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09-04-23 | Orioles -171 v. Angels | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Grayson Rodriguez was money last Monday, and I’m expecting to see another strong performance when he takes on the Angels’ depleted lineup. The Orioles’ bullpen has done a great job over the last ten days, notching a 2.73 ERA and 2.80 FIP through 26.1 innings. I don’t trust the Angels’ pitching staff to keep the O’s in check. Over the last ten days, the Orioles’ bats have registered a 127 wRC+ against the righties (239 plate appearances) and an 84 wRC+ versus the southpaws. The Angels have four lefties in their bullpen, but just one of those four guys holds an ERA south of 5.74. |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colorado Rockies have dropped four consecutive series and eight out of their last ten games. This is a team that no longer has Grichuk or Cron and is struggling to score runs, especially on the road. The Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies this season, winning eight of the ten meetings. Peter Lambert issued a poor 5.23 ERA in August. D-Backs’ pitcher Merill Kelly has silenced the Rockies this season, limiting them to only three runs in 12 innings. He is sporting a 2.96 ERA at home this season. Arizona is 7-3 in their last ten home decisions and I expect another home win. |
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09-04-23 | Giants v. Cubs -132 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Webb has been a bad bet on the road this season and has been putting too many runners on base lately. In his last five starts, he's allowed 35 hits and 14 runs (13 earned) in 31.2 innings. He lost his last two starts and gave up four runs and nine hits three starts ago. I don't trust him against the red-hot Cubs, who are scoring 5.7 runs per game since the All-Star break. Steele has been steady and consistent, especially under the sun. He's 8-2 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 day games. He will earn his 12th victory of the year at home against a Giants club that's hitting .220 with a .295 OBP in the second half of the season, averaging a paltry 3.7 runs per game. |
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09-03-23 | Rays -129 v. Guardians | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians struggle to score against everyone, so don't expect them to light up the scoreboard in this one. Meanwhile, Cleveland is trusting Xzavion Curry against the Rays again, at least to begin the game. Considering that he gave up five runs last time, that doesn't bode well. The last time he was on the mound was his worst outing of the year, ending with six runs surrendered over 2.0 innings. As for Tampa Bay, their offense has been on fire lately and will probably pounce on this version of Curry. Expect domination from the Rays to close the series. |
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09-03-23 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -138 | 8-5 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Zac Gallen getting the start in Chase Field, always expect Arizona to win. Only twice have the Diamondbacks lost his home starts, and in one of them, the bullpen gave up five runs late to lose it. Implosions like that are an anomaly, but Gallen stifling the opposing lineup is not. So, it'll be on Arizona to give him run support if they want to take this game. Considering that they scored four against Flaherty the first time they faced him and three the second time, the Diamondbacks should race out to a lead in this one. By avoiding Baltimore's best bullpen arms, they'll probably plate a few more too. Don't be surprised if the Snakes win by multiple runs. |
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09-03-23 | Phillies v. Brewers +100 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers were cooled off by the Cubs in the final two games of that series but did have a nine-game winning streak to extend their lead in the NL Central prior to that. They now have Wade Miley taking the hill against the Phillies in the series finale on Sunday. Miley is 4-1 at home this season and also has a solid 3.46 ERA in his last five starts as well. The Phillies will send Suarez to the hill for the series finale and will likely have to watch his pitch count in his first start off of IL. Suarez is just 2-6 overall on the season and the Phillies have lost three of his last five starts this season overall. The Brewers have won each of Miley's last two starts and will close out this series with another win. |
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09-02-23 | Orioles -123 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cecconi has pitched decently in his limited action at the big league level and has surrendered only two extra-base hits in his three outings at Chase Field. Opposing hitters have a .163/.178/.256 slash line against him in those performances but it’s safe to say that the Orioles are a team that can do some damage. Bradish has pitched well and the Orioles have won his last five starts entering this game. The Orioles are a dangerous offensive team, especially on the road, and they should be able to get to the young Cecconi, who had his struggles in Triple-A before being called up. Back the Orioles and Bradish here as they earn the road victory in this contest. |
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09-02-23 | Mariners -130 v. Mets | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have lost seven of their last 10 games and five of their last eight home games and have scored only 12 runs in their last four home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they don’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Castillo has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four starts. He gave up five runs in his last two starts against the Mets, and with Seattle having the second-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. The Mariners have won eight of their last 10 games and five of their last six road games and have scored 30 runs in their last five games. Mets starter, Carrasco has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 18 runs in his last five starts. He gave up eight runs in his last two starts against the Mariners, and with New York’s bullpen struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. |
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09-02-23 | Cubs -111 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are looking good, winning five of their last six series after a series victory against one of the hottest squads in baseball, the Brewers, and a win in game one of Friday's DH. The Reds are stumbling in recent games, losing two straight series and six of their last ten games. Cubs’ starter Javier Assad has been outstanding recently. The right-hander has conceded two or fewer runs in five consecutive outings and reported a dazzling 2.48 ERA in August. Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott has regressed after a great start to his rookie year, allowing 20 runs in his last 27.1 innings. The Cubs are a reliable play with Assad on the mound. They have won in each of Assad’s last five outings. |
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09-01-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -151 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ll see a couple of top-notch lefties on the mound, and these two lineups have done a good job against the southpaws in the last couple of weeks (Braves 153 wRC+ and .943 OPS; Dodgers 110 wRC+ and .767 OPS). Furthermore, both teams have plenty of dangerous arms in their bullpens. The Braves’ relievers have amassed a 3.25 ERA and 3.08 FIP in the last ten days and 27.2 innings of work, while the Dodgers’ bullpen has thrown 40.2 frames in that span while tallying a 2.66 ERA and 3.86 FIP. |
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09-01-23 | Angels -133 v. A's | 2-9 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team is playing well, but the Angels have the only above-average group in this game with their offense. That group is 11th in runs per game, while Oakland is 30th. Los Angeles also hasn't struggled against Oakland at all this year, with a +27 run differential after seven games. Using their lineup, the Angels will cruise to another win against the A's today. They've already crushed JP Sears once (six runs in 4.1 innings), and that wasn't at the Oakland Coliseum where Sears has pitched worse. Meanwhile, Patrick Sandoval made light work of the A's lineup twice, giving up only four total runs in two starts. The Angels will probably race out to a healthy lead and never look back. |
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09-01-23 | Twins v. Rangers -148 | 5-1 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This weekend's series opens with a pair of right-handers facing each other for the second time in less than a week. Texas' Max Scherzer (12-5, 3.71 ERA) is set to square off against Minnesota's Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.33). Scherzer received a no-decision last Saturday against the Twins after allowing two runs with 10 strikeouts over seven innings. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA in his first five starts covering 30 2/3 innings since being acquired from the New York Mets. He is 9-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 17 career starts versus Minnesota. |
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08-31-23 | Marlins v. Nationals +145 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We saw these teams meet last weekend in South Beach with the Nationals taking two of three. That included a win Friday night with this pitching matchup as Adon spun six scoreless frames. Miami is going to be dealing with traveling after Hurricane Idalia had hit Florida early Wednesday so it will remain to be seen how that works out for them. Washington has been strong since the All-Star break, entering today 26-18 in the second half of the season. Miami saw Jorge Soler leave Tuesday’s game early with hip tightness, which could impede their top slugging option. The Nationals have played solid baseball and have made good teams struggle against them of late. Miami has been down in the second half of the season and has gone 28-36 on the road this year. Give the edge to the Nationals as they take the opening game of this series. |
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08-29-23 | Padres -144 v. Cardinals | 5-6 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres have experienced setback after setback to their pitching staff, with Yu Darvish's relegation to the 15-day injured list the latest blow. However, right-hander Seth Lugo (5-6, 3.70 ERA) remains one of the bright spots. He will face the host St. Louis Cardinals tonight in the middle game of a three-game series. The Padres won the opener 4-1 on Monday to snap a three-game losing streak. Lugo has thrown a combined 12 scoreless innings over his past two starts, against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins. He has allowed just eight hits and four walks while striking out 13, doing his best to keep San Diego's dwindling playoff hopes alive. Lugo is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in 10 career appearances against St. Louis, including two starts. The Cardinals have lost 10 of their past 12 games. They have dropped their past four games by the combined scored of 26-4. |
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08-29-23 | Angels v. Phillies -163 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Angels are out of postseason contention and are a defeated team. They have now dropped five of their last seven series. The Phillies are looking good, winning seven of their last ten decisions after sweeping the Cardinals this past weekend and a 6-4 victory on Monday. Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson is going to struggle against this hot lineup. The veteran has squandered 13 runs in his last 13.1 innings pitched. Anderson has issued a weak 4.66 career ERA in 29 innings against the Phillies. I expect Michael Lorenzen to rebound in this one. The righty has hit a bump in his last two starts but has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last eight outings. |
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08-28-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kyle Muller will meet Seattle for the second time this season, and the Mariners tortured him for six earned runs on eight hits and two walks across five innings on May 22. I don’t trust the A’s to keep the Mariners lineup in check, so give me Seattle -1.5. Seattle’s bullpen has gone 3-1 with four saves over the last ten days (30 IP), tallying a 3.90 ERA and 2.74 FIP, while the Mariners lineup has recorded a 221 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers (79 plate appearances) and 163 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers (275 PA). The M’s will have to slow down eventually, but I don’t see that happening in this series. |
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08-28-23 | Guardians v. Twins -159 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians are looking to make a push in the division but the Twins are having a great season and look to step up and control this game from the first inning. The Twins should constantly drive in runs with Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, and the rest of the lineup making contact and powering the ball to easily plate baserunners. The Twins should limit the Guardians' lineup, which averages only 4.00 runs per game, with Kenta Maeda pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with the lead. The Twins should win the game with a strong performance at home. |
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08-28-23 | Angels v. Phillies -141 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-hander Lucas Giolito (7-10, 4.32 ERA) will be tasked with slowing down Turner and the rest of the Philadelphia offense today when he makes his 27th start of the season. Five of Giolito's 26 starts have come with the Angels after he was traded from the Chicago White Sox on July 26. So far, his time in Los Angeles has not been kind to him. Giolito is 1-4 with a 6.67 ERA with the Angels after giving up four runs (one earned) on five hits in six innings against the Cincinnati Reds last Tuesday. He walked two and struck out nine en route to his second consecutive loss. Fellow right-hander Taijuan Walker (13-5, 4.02) will oppose Giolito as he squares off against an Angels team that has seemingly had nothing go right over the past two weeks. In addition to seeing superstar center fielder Mike Trout land back on the injured list due to a left hamate fracture and having to shut down two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the rest of the season, Los Angeles has lost eight of its last 12 games. |
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08-27-23 | Rangers -107 v. Twins | 6-7 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery has had four solid starts since joining the club at the trade deadline. The left-hander has allowed five earned runs across 26 innings. Minnesota starter Bailey Ober has allowed 16 earned runs across the last 24 Innings pitched and Minnesota has lost three of the five games during that span. Minnesota leads the AL Central but injuries are beginning to take their toll on the Twins lineup as Minnesota is playing without Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda along with a host of starting and relief pitchers. |
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08-27-23 | Yankees v. Rays -119 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays have done a great job batting against left-handers and Rodon has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his two starts against the Rays. The Yankees have lost 10 of their last 12 games and five of their last six road games. The Yankees haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Littell has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving 11 runs in his last six starts. With Tampa Bay’s bullpen also playing well at the moment, they won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. |
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08-27-23 | Guardians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Noah Syndergaard is back on the hill for the Cleveland Guardians this afternoon. He holds a 6.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the year and has surrendered 12 hits and 8 runs in his last 10.1 innings. Overall, Syndergaard simply isn’t the pitcher he once was years ago. He’s on pace for the lowest strikeout rate of his career (5.77 K/9), this is by far the highest season-long ERA he’s recorded and lastly his velocity just isn’t there anymore. Six years ago, Syndergaard was throwing fastballs at an average of 99.6 mph whereas now he only hits 93 mph on a good pitch. I expect him to struggle today against a Blue Jays team that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard as they did in yesterday’s contest. |
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08-26-23 | Cubs -133 v. Pirates | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have urgency on their side when they get set to battle the Pirates on Saturday. In addition, starter Assid has been excellent as of late as the team continues to stretch him out as a starter. He should find success against a Pirates' lineup that is ranked just 24th in baseball in runs scored per game this season. With the Pirates likely to employ an opener on Saturday, the Cubs lineup should be able to get into a fairly vulnerable Pirates' bullpen and put up some numbers on Sunday. The Cubs are fifth in baseball in runs scored per game and have scored over six runs per game in the last three games. |
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08-26-23 | Padres v. Brewers -132 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers will attempt to clinch another series victory tonight in a pairing of right-handers as Freddy Peralta (10-8, 3.97 ERA) starts against the Padres' Pedro Avila (0-0, 1.17). The 27-year-old Peralta is on a roll. The Brewers have won each of Peralta's past five starts and he is 4-0 over those games, allowing five runs on 19 hits and seven walks with 50 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings for a 1.47 ERA while averaging 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Peralta is 1-1 lifetime against the Padres in four games (one start). That start came earlier this season when he gave up five runs on nine hits and a walk in five innings to suffer the Brewers' lone loss in a four-game series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Padres will be turning to the 26-year-old Avila, whose only other start this season came in a spot/quasi bullpen game on Aug. 1. In 23 innings this season, Avila has given up three runs on 18 hits and nine walks against 28 strikeouts. At Triple-A El Paso this season, Avila had a 1-6 record with an 8.57 ERA over 19 appearances (15 starts) before joining the Padres. |
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08-26-23 | Rockies v. Orioles -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No need to really over think this matchup. On the mound for the Orioles will be Kyle Bradish, who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home. Starting for the Rockies will be Chris Flexen, who has a 6.31 ERA and 1.68 WHIP since joining their rotation. The Orioles also have the vastly superior lineup, so look for them to earn a convincing victory. |
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08-25-23 | Braves -151 v. Giants | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The current Giants are only 4-for-35 with a double and zero RBI against Spencer Strider. IF Strider continues to pitch at a high level, the Giants won’t stand a chance through the first five or six innings. On the other side, the current Braves are 23-for-88 with three home runs and eight RBI versus Logan Webb. Atlanta has recorded a 126 wRC+ and .844 OPS against right-handed pitchers in the last couple of weeks, whereas San Francisco has registered a 66 wRC+ and .592 OPS against the righties in that span. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding for most of the season, but over the last ten days, it has compiled a pedestrian 5.69 ERA and 5.27 FIP in 49 innings of work. The Braves’ bullpen has thrown 28.2 innings during that span while tallying a shiny 2.20 ERA and 3.02 FIP. Give me the Braves at the moneyline odds. Their offense should make a difference. |
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08-25-23 | Rockies v. Orioles -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The O's send out the team's leading winner in Gibson on Friday night. He has an ERA over five at home this season but has still managed to go 5-3 at Camden Yards. Gibson is also 2-0 in his last five starts and will fair well against a Colorado lineup that has struggled on the road this season. Additionally, Gibson's ability to get deeper into games with a team-leading 13 quality starts will play well here as he will get the Orioles to one of the league's top bullpens. The Rockies are scoring nearly two runs per game less on the road this season and feature a lineup that has been depleted following the trading of two regulars at the trade deadline. The Orioles have the fifth-best home-winning percentage in baseball and will have their way with a Colorado team that ranks just 28th in baseball in road-winning percentage. |
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08-25-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -135 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals are going nowhere this season and are merely trying to avoid ending the season in the cellar of the NL Central. Mikolas celebrated his 35th birthday Wednesday but has struggled mightily of late for the Redbirds. In his last five starts, he is 0-4 with a 5.61 ERA over the span of 25.2 innings of work. Facing a Phillies team that has motivation as they are holding the top wild card spot in the National League doesn’t really work in the Cardinals’ favor. Philadelphia has played well at home, posting a 36-25 mark, and Sanchez has looked better in recent outings after a slow start to the year. The Phillies are motivated and stand as the better team right now: that’s enough to tilt the scales in their favor here. |
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08-24-23 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -153 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Merrill Kelly will meet the Reds for the first time this season. He’s 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against Cincinnati, and the current Reds are only 3-for-18 against Kelly. On the other side, the current Diamondbacks are just 2-for-13 with a double versus Brandon Williamson. Arizona has recorded a 78 wRC+ and .173 ISO against left-handed pitchers in the last ten days (49 plate appearances), while Cincinnati has registered a 91 wRC+ and .187 ISO versus the righties in that span (220 PA). The stake is enormous in this series, and today’s opener could easily go either way. I’m backing the Diamondbacks only because they enjoyed a day off on Wednesday, whereas the Reds had to play a doubleheader against the Angels. The Reds’ bullpen has posted a shiny 1.50 ERA to go with a 3.57 FIP in the past ten days, but there will be some tired arms following Wednesday’s twin bill. |
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08-24-23 | Cubs -160 v. Pirates | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago has won four of its last six overall, while Pittsburgh has lost 14 of its last 20 when facing a team from the National League Central. Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele is having an excellent season at 14-3 with a 2.80 ERA. Steele is tied for the major league lead in wins with 14 and the southpaw’s 2.80 ERA is second best. Chicago has won each of the left-hander’s last six starts and over that span Steele has allowed 14 earned runs across 34 ⅔ innings. Pittsburgh has lost five of the last seven games started by Mitch Keller. Pittsburgh’s struggles begin but do not end at the plate. The Pirates score an average of only 4.20 runs per game which is 23rd and have a team batting average of just .236 (27th), while sitting 21st in team ERA at 4.55. Chicago in contrast is scoring an average of 5.04 runs per game which is fifth best in baseball with the 10th best team batting average (.254). |
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08-24-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Guardians | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ryan Pepiot (0-0, 1.80 ERA) of the Dodgers will face Gavin Williams (1-4, 3.02) of the Guardians in a battle of rookie right-handers during the regularly scheduled contest. Pepiot, 26, put his best foot forward after being added to the roster as the 27th man for the Saturday doubleheader against the Miami Marlins. The 6-foot-3, 215-pounder allowed one run on three hits and a walk while striking out five in five innings in during a no-decision. Pepiot will make his 11th career appearance and first against the Guardians. Williams, 24, fell to 0-3 in his last seven outings after being undone by a rocky start on Friday. He allowed three runs in the first inning before tossing four scoreless frames in a 4-2 setback to the Detroit Tigers. |
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08-23-23 | Giants v. Phillies -127 | 8-6 | Loss | -127 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants continue to stumble due to a slumping offense and I am not confident they will hold onto a wildcard spot. They have only won two of their road games in August and have dropped seven of their last ten games. The Phillies have won seven of their last ten home games. Giants’ starter Alex Cobb has no confidence these days. He has given up 18 runs in his last 21.1 innings, equating to an abysmal 7.59 ERA. Michael Lorenzen had a dud last time out but has been one of the better pitchers in the big leagues since early July, conceding two or fewer runs in five of his last seven outings. Look for the Phillies to complete the sweep. |
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08-23-23 | Twins v. Brewers -135 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers will turn to ace right-hander Corbin Burnes to extend their winning streak when they host the Minnesota Twins this afternoon in the finale of a two-game interleague series between division leaders. Burnes (9-6, 3.43 ERA) will be opposed by right-hander Kenta Maeda (3-7, 4.13). Burnes is 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his past nine starts. In his latest outing, he allowed just two hits en route to seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts, but he did not get the decision in the Brewers' 1-0 loss to the Dodgers on Thursday. Burnes is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career games, including four starts, vs. the Twins. In his last seven starts, Maeda is 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA. |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago will turn to right-hander Michael Kopech today as it tries to salvage a game from Seattle. Kopech (5-11, 5.12 ERA) is coming off a road loss to Colorado on Friday, when he allowed nine runs and six hits -- including three home runs -- in four innings. Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Mariners, with 13 strikeouts in 10 innings. Facing host Seattle on June 16, he took a no-decision after allowing one run and six hits in 4 1/3 innings, with six walks and four strikeouts. Kirby (10-8, 3.23) got the start in Seattle's most recent bid for a nine-game winning streak before Wednesday. Facing the Baltimore Orioles on Aug. 12, he took a no-decision after scattering three hits and seven strikeouts in nine shutout innings. Baltimore won 1-0 in 10 innings. Kirby hasn't faced the White Sox in his career. Seattle has won 21 of its past 26 road games. A victory Wednesday would give the club a 9-1 road trip. The Mariners are set to begin a six-game homestand against struggling Kansas City and Oakland before opening September with another 10-game trip. Seattle is 4-1 versus the White Sox this season after winning two of three games against Chicago in June. |
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08-22-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -117 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zac Gallen has been a true ace for the Diamondbacks thus far. I’m behind him in this game even though the current Rangers are 18-for-64 with three doubles, a triple, and a home run against Gallen, who holds a shiny 10-1 record and 1.82 ERA at home this season. On the other side, the current D-backs are 37-for-124 with seven extra-base hits, four dingers, and 17 RBI against Jon Gray, who owns a 4.68 ERA in 50 innings pitched at Chase Field. |
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08-22-23 | Mariners -150 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Clevinger has pitched well of late and took a bitter no-decision in his last start against the Cubs as the bullpen blew a 3-0 lead to lose 4-3. Clevinger has struggled against Seattle in his career. He enters today at 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA in three previous starts versus the Mariners, allowing four home runs in 17 innings. The White Sox have to contend with a Seattle team that has been on fire of late and is more than capable of battering opposing pitchers into the ground. We’ve seen the Mariners record seven different four-hit games from players in the last week, including a torrid run by Julio Rodriguez. Seattle is clicking on all cylinders and they take care of business here to earn another victory. |
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08-22-23 | Rockies v. Rays -1.5 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays come into this series winners of three of their last four games and still very much alive to win the American League East division and possibly earn a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Littell has adjusted to his starting role with an ERA of just over two and a half in that time and has pitched into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. While the Rockies are coming off a good series against the White Sox, they are not the same hitting team on the road this season. The Rockies are scoring just 3.7 runs per game on the road this season, which would be the second-worst mark in baseball. Tampa Bay has hit extremely well at home this year and will take advantage of the Rockies' road woes. |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -179 v. White Sox | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago, long out of the playoff picture despite lofty expectations, has lost six of its past eight while Seattle come in on a six-game winning streak. Seattle will turn to right-hander Luis Castillo (9-7, 3.23 ERA), who has won two consecutive starts and three of four. In two career starts against Chicago, covering 12 1/3 innings, Castillo is 0-0 with a 2.92 ERA. Righty Touki Toussaint (1-5, 4.47) is set to start for the White Sox. He is coming off a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, when he allowed three runs and three hits in four-plus innings. Toussaint struggled in his only previous appearance against Seattle, allowing four runs and three hits in 2 2/3 innings last August. The Mariners took two of three games from the visiting White Sox when the clubs met in Seattle from June 16-18. |
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08-21-23 | Mets v. Braves -1.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winans will be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to face visiting New York in the series opener. Left-hander David Peterson (3-7, 5.45 ERA) will start for the Mets. Winans (1-0, 1.59) will be called up to make his third career start. On Aug. 12 he was added to the big-league roster for a doubleheader against the Mets and pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing four hits, two walks and striking out nine. Atlanta won that game 21-3. Peterson will be making his 10th career appearance (ninth start) against the Braves. He is 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA versus Atlanta. In his last start against the Braves on April 28, Peterson gave up four runs in five innings. Braves are 7-1 in their last eight home games with six wins coming by multiple runs. |
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08-21-23 | Cubs -125 v. Tigers | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago offense, one of MLB's top-five run-scoring units, gets to open this game against a starting pitcher with an ERA above 6.00 in his home park. That sounds like an early lead to me. Once Chicago gets in front, it'll be on the pitchers to hold down one of the league's worst offenses. The Cubs' pitching staff will also be aided by Comerica Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions. Javier Assad has been solid, Chicago's bullpen has also delivered enough, and the offense is red-hot. Against a Detroit team that only seems to succeed against their rivals, that'll be plenty for a multi-run win. |
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08-20-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. A's | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of second-year major-leaguers will get the ball this afternoon when right-hander Kyle Bradish and the visiting Baltimore Orioles look to complete a three-game sweep against lefty JP Sears and the Oakland Athletics. Bradish (7-6, 3.18 ERA) has pitched the Orioles to three straight wins in August, going 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA against the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets and Seattle Mariners. He has struck out 19 over 17 2/3 innings in that stretch. The Fujinami trade has created more opportunities for Oakland's young pitchers, including the 27-year-old Sears (2-9, 4.27), who hasn't won since July 28. He has gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his three August starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. Sears took his first loss of the season in the April series in Baltimore, allowing three runs in five innings in a 5-1 setback. Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle homered off him in that game. |
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08-20-23 | Brewers v. Rangers -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scherzer has always been a big-game pitcher and he has brought that mentality with him to Texas in the early going. He is a perfect 3-0 in his three starts and has an ERA under two thus far. In addition, Scherzer has excelled while pitching in front of the home crowd with a perfect 5-0 record when pitching at home this season. Scherzer faces a Milwaukee lineup that scored just three runs total in the three losses in Los Angeles. He has done an exceptional job of keeping the ball out of play with his 11.7 K/9 rate since arriving in Texas. Scherzer should get plenty of support from baseball's second-highest run-producing team against the Brewers' Houser. Texas is #1 in baseball in runs per game at home this season with over six per contest. |
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08-20-23 | Blue Jays -105 v. Reds | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Greene was pitching well before he went on the 60-day IL, he hasn’t pitched well at home this season and gave up 11 runs in his last three home starts. He will also be dealing with some rust and he’s facing a Toronto team that has done a good job hitting right-handers this season. Toronto starter Ryu has looked good on the mound since his first start of the season, giving up two runs in his last two starts. He has also had a lot of success against the Reds, with a 5-2 record in eight starts against them. He didn’t give up a run in his last two starts against the Reds. |
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08-19-23 | Orioles -161 v. A's | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland may have won the final game of their series against the Cardinals on the road but the fact remains that they own the worst record in the American League. The A’s have been brutal both at the plate and on the mound this season: facing an Orioles team that has pushed to the top of the AL East is not a good matchup for them. A's pitcher Cole Irvin will face off against his ex teammate in Ken Waldichuk. Irvin has not surrendered an earned run in four consecutive appearances and has solid splits pitching at the Coliseum. Waldicuk has struggled this season posting an ERA over 6.00 this year. |
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08-19-23 | Mariners +134 v. Astros | 10-3 | Win | 134 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners are back in the playoff hunt! Since July 20, they are 20-7 and have been playing excellent baseball. They won as underdogs in the series opener against the Houston Astros yesterday and will be looking to extend their winning streak to 5 while claiming a huge divisional series in the process. Remove his no-hitter from the equation and Houston’s Framber Valdez has been mediocre at best recently. Without the no-hitter, Valdez has a 7.40 ERA over his last 5 starts. Since he accomplished the rare feat, he has surrendered 9 runs and 14 hits in 14.2 innings. I believe Valdez will have a hard time slowing down this red-hot Mariners’ offense that ranks top 5 in BA and OPS over the last 30 days. Seattle has also been cranking lefties recently with a 134 wRC+ and .819 OPS against left-handed pitching this month. |
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08-19-23 | Royals v. Cubs -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Royals' starter Singer has pitched better as of late, he has struggled on the road all season. Singer has an ERA over six away from home and has struggled with his command. He's also given up 61 hits in 49.2 innings on the road which will not play well against a Cubs offense that has been thriving up and down the roster. Cubs' starter Steele has had a dominant season with 13 wins in 16 decisions and an ERA under three. He's been even better at home this season with a 9-2 record and a 2.63 ERA. Over his last five starts, Steele is undefeated and won four times. The Cubs are very much alive in the chase for the NL Central Division crown and can't afford a letup against a team they should beat. |
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08-18-23 | Mariners v. Astros -140 | 2-0 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros have lost five of seven games to the Mariners this season. With the M's playing even better since the All-Star break, they'll have the Astros full attention today. Miller got the best of Houston in his second big league outing, surrendering just two hits and no runs in six innings. While he's been pretty consistent since his dominant start, he's also had some putrid performances, surrendering six-plus runs on four occasions. The Astros should be more confident in their second game against the rookie right-hander today. Houston is slashing .264 BA/.349 OBP/.454 SLG/.803 OPS in the second half, a significant improvement from the first half of the season (.247/.316/.407/.723). It's scoring 1.3 more runs per game, too. With the dependable France on the hill (zero runs in five innings vs. the Mariners on May 6), it's the Astros for the win tonight. |
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08-18-23 | Brewers v. Rangers -118 | 9-8 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee starter, Woodruff still working his way back from injury, questions remain as to how he'll hold up against one of baseball's top offenses. Heaney on the other hand, has been one of the American League's best pitchers over the last month and against a Milwaukee lineup that has struggled on offense, will give them another upper hand. The Rangers have been one of baseball's best teams at home this season and combining their advantages in the lineup, on the mound, and in the avenue this one will be played, the Rangers will come away with an easy win to set the tone tonight for the weekend. |
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08-18-23 | Giants v. Braves -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants are stumbling, losing seven of their last ten bouts after a series loss to the Rays. The Atlanta Braves continue to dominate, winning eight of their last nine home clashes after sweeping the Yankees. Giants’ starter Alex Cobb has not been a reliable option. The right-hander has issued a disastrous 8.04 ERA in his three starts this month and the Giants have lost in three of his last four outings. Spencer Strider has conceded two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. I can’t see a slumping Giants offense getting to MLB's strikeout leader. I recommend the run line considering nine of the Braves' last ten wins have occurred by two or more runs. |
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08-17-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -141 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Over his last eight starts, Burnes is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings. The worst of those eight outings came in his most recent start, on Friday against the host Chicago White Sox, when he gave up five runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in a game Milwaukee won 7-6 in 10 innings. Now he meets the Dodgers, against whom he is 2-2 with an 8.50 ERA over six career outings (four starts). It is his second-worst ERA against any team, better than just his 9.16 mark vs. the Atlanta Braves. Dodgers right-hander Lance Lynn (9-9, 5.88 ERA) takes the mound on Thursday, having posted a 3-0 record with a 2.00 ERA in three starts with his new club. Lynn was acquired from the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline. The Dodgers have no concerns at the present time when it comes to winning. In addition to their winning streak, they have gone 14-1 in August. |
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08-17-23 | Diamondbacks -106 v. Padres | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing better after a slump and just won two of three against this Padres squad this last weekend followed by a series win at Coors Field. The Padres continue to be a huge disappointment and have dropped seven of their last ten decisions. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen has excelled against the Padres this season, limiting the rivals to only five runs (four earned) in 19 innings pitched including six shutout innings against them last Saturday in a 3-0 win. The ace has registered a 3.34 ERA in his career against the Padres. Rich Hill is struggling, surrendering nine runs in his two starts in a Padres uniform, lasting less than four innings in each outing. |
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08-17-23 | Mets -124 v. Cardinals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright is getting one more chance to steer his farewell season back on track. In his past two starts, Wainwright (3-7, 8.78 ERA) retired just 12 batters while allowing 15 runs on 18 hits. The Cardinals will start him today against the visiting New York Mets in the opener of a four-game series. However, this is the last opportunity team management is promising him. The 41-year-old right-hander allowed eight runs on nine hits in one-plus inning during his last start, a 12-8 loss to the Kansas City Royals on Friday. The Mets will counter Wainwright with former Cardinals hurler Jose Quintana (0-4, 3.03 ERA), who will make his sixth start since recovering from rib surgery. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of five starts this season. Quintana is 5-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals. |
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08-16-23 | Orioles +146 v. Padres | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Blake Snell, who’s issued four free passes in each of his last three starts, will have a tall task to keep the Orioles in check. Baltimore is very dangerous when hitting the southpaws and sports a .266/.324/.427 triple-slash, 102 wRC+, 8.0 BB%, and 16.1 K% across 137 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers in August. San Diego owns a .246/.309/.401 triple-slash and 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in August (369 PA). The current Padres are 3-for-19 against Dean Kremer, so I’m going with the Orioles at plus money. San Diego desperately needs to start winning in sequences, but the Padres’ offense has been underperforming all season long. The Orioles are undefeated in Kremer’s last seven starts even though Dean has had a couple of rough outings in that stretch. Over the last ten days, Baltimore’s bullpen has thrown 29 innings while recording a 3.72 ERA and 3.86 FIP, whereas San Diego’s bullpen has registered a 4.33 ERA and 4.52 FIP across 35.1 innings of work. |
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08-16-23 | Angels v. Rangers -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have been firing on all cylinders going 12-2 in August and are scoring 5.6 runs per game and should drive in runs at will against the Angels pitchers with Carey Seager, Adolis Garcia, and the rest of the lineup making contact and crushing pitches to easily drive in runs. The Rangers should limit the Angels' lineup with Jon Gray on the mound and giving way to the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead. |
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08-16-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have struggled all season as injuries to both their lineup and their pitching staff has left the team scrambling to avoid the cellar of the AL East, where they currently reside. This was a team that was expected to contend instead of being mired in mediocrity. Having to throw a rookie like Vasquez, regardless of how sharp he has looked in limited innings at the big league level, against a lineup like Atlanta’s is like walking around with a kick me sign on your back. Morton got in the win in his last start despite reverting to his early career wildness. The Braves’ bats are more than capable of putting up big numbers. |
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08-15-23 | Mariners -142 v. Royals | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle starter, Lyles has struggled on the mound this season and gave up 17 runs in his last four starts. He gave up 10 runs in his last three starts against the Mariners, and with Kansas City having the second-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Mariners in this game. Seattle hasn’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Hancock looked good on the mound in his first start and with Seattle having the second-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Kansas City’s offense in check. |
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08-15-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The pitching matchup today features Atlanta's Bryce Elder (8-4, 3.64 ERA) and New York's Luis Severino (2-7, 8.06). Severino will make his 15th appearance, 14th start, of the season. He last pitched on Wednesday in his first relief outing of the year, following an opener. He took the loss after allowing four runs in two-plus innings against the Chicago White Sox. Severino yielded five hits and one walk while striking out two. In his last start, on Aug. 4 against the Houston Astros, he gave up five runs in four-plus innings during a losing effort. Severino missed the first 48 games of the season because of a right lat strain. He has yet to find the form that made him a two-time All-Star (2017-18). The Braves have scored six runs or more in five straight games and have won four of those games by six runs or more. |
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08-15-23 | Astros -123 v. Marlins | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins will start right-hander Johnny Cueto (0-3, 5.33 ERA) today as they go for a series win. In 15 career starts against Houston, Cueto is 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA. Miami is just 1-5 in Cueto's six games this year, but he is giving the Marlins decent length, going six innings in three of his past four starts. Houston will start Cristian Javier (8-2, 4.36). The right-hander, who has never faced the Marlins, has a high spin rate on his fastball and curve. His slider, meanwhile, is regarded as one of the best in baseball. Astros are a healthy 15-7 this year when Javier pitches, including an 8-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles last Wednesday. Javier gave up two runs on four hits in five innings during that contest. |
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08-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -170 | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Scherzer (11-4, 3.88 ERA) won his first two starts with Texas following his trade from the New York Mets at the end of July and owns three straight wins overall. He most recently took limiting a weak Oakland squad to one run and three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 win on Tuesday. Scherzer has faced the Angels six times in his career and is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA. The Angels plan to start left-hander Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval (6-8, 3.86) is going through a solid stretch of his own, posting a 2-1 mark and 1.86 ERA over his past five starts. Sandoval is 1-2 in six career appearances against the Rangers, including five starts, with a 3.07 ERA. |
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08-14-23 | Pirates +105 v. Mets | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pittsburgh Pirates are a young, hungry team, excelling against strong competition. They recently played the Brewers and won two of four road bouts and followed by another two wins in four meetings against the Braves last week. The Mets have several rookies in the lineup after making so many deals and have been a disaster, dropping eight of their last ten games. Mets’ starter Carlos Carrasco has been obliterated by the opposition in most of his starts. The veteran has surrendered 15 runs in his last five outings spanning only 20.1 innings. The Pirates have scored 17 runs in three games against the Mets this season. |
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08-14-23 | Astros -137 v. Marlins | 1-5 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Miami took two of three games last season in this series, Houston will have revenge on their mind, which will drive home a road win for one of baseball's best road teams. Their depth is key, while their ability to generate runs has been unmatched this season, especially in the middle of the lineup. The depth for Miami simply isn't there and their run production, or lack thereof, will come back to haunt them in this one. Braxton Garrett will be on the mound for the Marlins and Houston is excellent versus opposing lefties. |
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08-13-23 | Padres -134 v. Diamondbacks | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A rookie pitcher with nearly as many home innings (26.0) as runs allowed at home (25) is tasked with taking down one of MLB's hottest offenses. One loaded with stars and that just faced the Arizona ace on Saturday night. Brandon Pfaadt is being fed to wolves. Usually, the Diamondbacks could at least hope the offense could save them, but they've been nonexistent for over a month. The Padres, who have already been dominating this matchup in 2023, will win easily. |