Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-12-20 | Jorge Masvidal v. Kamaru Usman OVER 4.5 | 0-5 | Win | 105 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Gilbert Burn's loss is Jorge Masvidal's gain. Kamaru Usman (16-1) has more to lose in this fight, especially since he was preparing for Gilbert Burns and now has only one week to get ready for Jorge Masvidal (35-13) who is a completely different type of fighter. Look for both fighters to be a more cautious than normal which should help this bout go the full distance. Kamaru Usman has good wrestling skills to take this fight to the ground and grind out the clock. Usman hasn't been stopped since 2008 and his last four fights have all gone the full distance. |
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07-11-20 | Jose Aldo v. Petr Yan -215 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
Jose Aldo (28-6) is past his prime and is just 2-4 in his past six fights. Meanwhile, Petr Yan (14-1) is an upcoming star who is six years younger with nine straight wins, including a perfect 6-0 in the UFC. Yan is better in every key category in this fight as he possesses better cardio, hits with more power and frequency, and has better wrestling skills. The Russian wins the title tonight. |
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07-11-20 | Jessica Andrade v. Rose Namajunas -195 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an excellent revenge spot for Rose Namajunas (9-4) who has not fought for the past 14 months since she lost the 115-pound title to Jessica Andrade (20-7) in May 2019. It was a misleading result as Namajunas was dominating that fight, but made the mistake of trying to finish it too quickly and got slammed hard at the wrong angle. She has a three-inch length and height advantage tonight, she can give and take a punch, and she has lethal submissions. |
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06-27-20 | Dan Hooker v. Dustin Poirier OVER 2.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
This main event fight has a good chance of going the distance for a full five rounds, so there is excellent value with the Over. Dustin Poirier (25-6) has a powerful punch and definite finishing power, but Dan Hooker (20-8) is four inches taller with a substantial three inch reach advantage, so Hooker should be able to keep his distance tonight and avoid any early trouble. |
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06-20-20 | Alexander Volkov v. Curtis Blaydes UNDER 2.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
These are two powerful fighters with plenty of knockout and finishing abilities, so it is very unlikely that this fight goes the distance tonight. Look for both fighters to come out swinging and looking for a quick finish. Alexander Volkov (31-7) has a 3-inch height advantage, but Curtis Blaydes (13-2) is heavier and long as both fighters have an equal 80-inch reach. Volkov has publicly said this fight will not last long as he plans on coming out hard and finishing Blaydes early. However, Blaydes has plenty of power himself, and also possesses dangerous knockout potential. |
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06-20-20 | Austin Hubbard v. Max Rohskopf -170 | 1-0 | Loss | -170 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
This line is way too low as Max Rohskopf should be at least a -300 favorite. The reason is because the general public is unfamiliar with the 25-year old Rohskopf (5-0) who is a rising talent. He has an excellent ground game with strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu which is strengthened by his strong wrestling skills that enable him to get takedowns. He holds a 3-inch height advantage and also a 3-inch reach advantage in this fight vs. Austin Hubbard (11-4), but the key to victory will be when Rohskopf takes Hubbard down to the mat and submits him. |
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06-13-20 | Cynthia Calvillo -129 v. Jessica Eye | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Jessica Eye (15-7) missed weight again and is not as prepared for this fight as Cynthia Calvillo (8-1) tonight. The sharp money is on Calvillo and there is excellent value with her as a small favorite this evening. Calvillo holds the important fight stat edges, especially on the ground with an 1.83 takedown average (vs. Eye's 0.46 TD average) and Calvillo has a 1.65 submission average (vs. Eye's 0.65 submission average). |
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06-13-20 | Charles Rosa +155 v. Kevin Aguilar | 1-0 | Win | 155 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
There is excellent line value with Charles Rosa (12-4) as a good sized underdog in this fight tonight as the public has inflated this price after just watching Rosa lose a few weeks ago to Bryce Mitchell. However, this is now a better matchup for Rosa against Kevin Aguilar this evening. Rosa will grind this fight out and will have a substantial edge once he gets the fight to the ground. Rosa has a 2.35 takedown average vs. Aguilar's 0.24 takedown average. |
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06-13-20 | Zarrukh Adashev v. Tyson Nam -145 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a must-win fight for Tyson Nam (18-11-1) and the setup is good for him to get that win tonight. His last-second replacement opponent for this fight is Zarrukh Adeshev (3-1) who had only three days to prepare for this fight. Nam holds a two-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach advantage in this fight. |
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06-06-20 | Raphael Assuncao v. Cody Garbrandt -135 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
Cody Garbrandt is at a pivotal point in his career. He won the championship belt and improved his record to a perfect 11-0 three years ago when he defeated Dominick Cruz, but Garbrandt then lost back-to-back bouts against T.J. Dillashaw and more recently lost to Pedro Munhoz. Garbrandt was knocked out in all three of those losses and he is now in a must-win situation to keep his UFC career alive. |
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06-06-20 | Anthony Rocco Martin v. Neil Magny -127 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
Neil Magny is a veteran fighter with more experience than Anthony Rocco Martin. Magny has fought tougher competition and is coming off an impressive unanimous decision win over Li Jingliang in UFC 248 three months ago on March 7th. |
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06-06-20 | Alex Caceres v. Chase Hooper -189 | 1-0 | Loss | -189 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
There has been heavy money on Chase Hooper this week and for good reason. He is a 20-year old talented prospect that enters this fight with a 9-0-1 record against Alex Caceres who is in the downturn of his career with a mediocre 15-12 mark. Hooper has the height and reach advantage in this matchup, along with the significant strikes per minute and accuracy edge. Hooper also enters with a 100% takedown defense in his young career against Caceres who has a strong 75% takedown accuracy. This is a classic UFC matchup where they want the upcoming star to gain a solid win versus a veteran. Despite the heavy line move this week, there is still solid value on Chase Hooper tonight. |
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05-30-20 | Gilbert Burns v. Tyron Woodley -160 | 5-0 | Loss | -160 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
The smaller 25-foot octagon (compared to the normal 30-foot cage) will favor a talented wrestler like Tyron Woodley tonight in Las Vegas. Woodley is a veteran and former champion with a strong ground game and he often gets takedowns and smashes for easy round wins which will be important in this five-round main event. Woodley is a smart fighter that will look to wear down Gilbert Burns. Woodley is motivated after losing his title, and only five years older, so age is not much of an issue tonight. Burns has a strong Jiu-Jitsu background, but Woodley is comfortable on the ground and has faced much tougher competition during his championship career. |
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05-30-20 | Gilbert Burns v. Tyron Woodley OVER 4.5 | 5-0 | Win | 155 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
Some sportsbooks have Over 3.5 +100, while other sportsbooks have a higher payout with Over 4.5 +145 to +155 range. Both offer good value as this five-round main event fight has a good chance of going the full distance in Las Vegas tonight. Both fighters have strong ground games with wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu. The smaller 25-foot octagon (compared to the normal 30-foot cage) will make it even more likely that the majority of this match takes place on the ground which will slow the pace and keep the clock moving. Tyron Woodley is 38-years old, so he will be cautious and smart tonight and he will look to wear down Gilbert Burns. Tyron Woodley has seen 4 of his past 5 fights go the distance, and it is likely to happen again tonight in this match. |
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05-30-20 | Augusto Sakai -110 v. Blagoi Ivanov | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
Solid value with Augusto Sakai as a small favorite in this matchup as he is four years younger, four inches taller, and has the reach advantage over Blagoy Ivanov tonight. Ivanov is just 2-2 in the UFC, and while he has faced tougher opponents overall, he now faces Sakai who is trending up and in excellent current form. Sakai is 5-0 in his past five fights, including a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, and 4-0 if you count Dana White's Contender Series. Solid value with the Brazilian tonight. |
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05-30-20 | Brandon Royval +145 v. Tim Elliott | 1-0 | Win | 145 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
Solid value with Brandon Royval as an underdog, especially considering Tim Elliott is in the downturn of his career. Elliott is just 1-3 in his last four fights and only 2-4 in his past six bouts overall. Royval is a hungry 27-year old who is making his UFC debut, so he is motivated and will make it count tonight. Elliott has been submitted in two of his past three fights, while Royval has won two of his past three fights by submission. Royval trains with a tough team and he is a great finisher. It appears Elliott has lost his edge, getting finished quickly in recent fights. |