Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-01-23 | Rangers -102 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona If I am correct, this will be the last game of a tremendous 2023 MLB season. Nathan Eovaldi will be on the hill for the Rangers and is 3-0 in six starts against the Diamondbacks with a 3.12 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP. More importantly, he is pitching well in the playoffs posting a 4-0 record in five starts with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and five walks spanning 30 2/3 innings of work. For Arizona, Zac Gallen will be on the hill and has struggled to a 2-2 record in five starts with a 5.27 ERAS and a 1.500 WHIP with just 18 strikeouts and 13 walks over 27 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.625 WHIP, with just 10 walks and terrible 8 free passes over 16 innings of work. His first start against the Brewers has been his only quality start in the playoffs and he has steadily worsened since. Betting on road teams priced between -130 and +130 on the money line that have stranded 5 or fewer runners on base in each of their last two games and has an overworked bullpen that has thrown a total of 13 or more innings over their previous three games has gone 57-26 averaging a +105 dog spanning the past five seasons. In the WS, teams that scored 10+ runs in their previous game are 14-5 for 74% averaging a -130 wager and earning a 44% ROI. And the clincher is the fact that these teams that scored 10 or more runs and now are favored have gone 13-1 averaging a -151 wager and earning a 67% ROI. In 10 of these games, the opponent never had the lead. |
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10-24-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -157 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Consider betting 6-Units on the money line preflop and then add the 2-units using the -1.5 alternative run line if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead at some point during the first four innings. Game 7’s are special situations and the most exciting elimination game possible in all of sports. Since 2004, the home team is 10-8 averaging a -125 favorite for 56% winners and earning a 2% ROI. The average score has been 4.61-3.78 with the home team scoring 4.61 runs. It is all hands on deck for the every pitcher physically capable of throwing even a single out. However, the average pitchers used has been a combined total of 9 pitchers with the home team averaging 4.61 and the road team 4.39. A potential live in game bet is to take whoever is leading after four innings are completed knowing that teams in this year’s playoffs that have held a lead after the 4th inning have gone 31-2 averaging a -101 wager and earning a 94%-win percentage. Also, the team leading after four innings, not tied, in game 7’s has gone to a 12-3 record for 80% averaging a -105 wager and earning a 57% ROI since 2004. IN the playoffs, the Phillies are 34-5 for 87% averaging a -116 wager and earning a 65% ROI since 2004 in game 7’s; and 21-2 for 91% winners averaging a -135 wager and earning a 72% ROI since 2004. Ranger Suarez will be on the hill tonight for the Phillies and has been pitching in top-form durig the playoffs and has been a formidable force during the regular season. He is 20-10 making 15 units when facing a team with a winning record over the past two seasons; 12-1 making 12 units in home games facing a NL team that is batting 0.250 or lower in the second of the last three seasons; 9-0 making 11 units if that NL team is batting 0.260 or lower in the second half of the last two seasons. When Suarez has started in the playoffs, the Phillies are 8-1 making 11 units. Suarez has posted a remarkable 0.64 ERA and a 0.643 WHIP with 13 strikeouts and just 2 walks in his three playoff starts this season. NLCS Game 7 Best Bet |
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10-23-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -163 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -163 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Consider betting 6-Units on the money line preflop and then add the 2-units using the -1.5 run line if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead at some point during the first four innings. The Phillies have posted an excellent 0.344 on-base-percentage with 23 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and 22 doubles in 11 playoff games. The Snakes have posted a 0.308 OBP with 16 home runs, and just 13 doubles in 10 playoff games. Big offensive advantage to the Phillies lineup. Betting against road teams in October and November that are batting 0.230 or lower spanning their last 15 games has earned a highly profitable 48-17 record for 74% winners averaging a -133 wager and earning a 42% ROI in playoffs games. In playoffs games only, betting against these road teams has gone 23-11 for 68% winners averaging a -123 wager and earning a 31% ROI over the past 5 seasons. If that road team is batting under 0.,220 over their previous 15 games, facing them has produced a 26-10 record for 72% winners averaging a 37% ROI over the past 10 playoff seasons.
The Phillies will look to be quite aggressive on the base paths knowing that Merrill Kelly is not all that good at keep runners close at first base and their catcher Gabriel Moreno has a 1.90 pop time. That POP time is above average in the majors, but the Phillies have the team speed to more than offset that asset. Moreover, the Phillies JT Realmuto has the MLB best POP time at 1.82 seconds averaging 87 MPH throw down to second base. Moreno averages just 82 MPH. Plus, Kelly throws off speed on 35% of his pitches so look for the Phillies to anticipate those softer pitches given them more than ample time to grab a stolen base. NLCS Game 6 Best Bet |
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10-22-23 | Rangers +104 v. Astros | Top | 9-2 | Win | 104 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
8-Unit Best Bet for Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS is on the Texas Rangers using the money line offered at by DraftKings. So, yes there will be a Game 7 Tuesday Night. Only one other time in the past 20 seasons has a seven game playoff series saw the road team win the first six games. That was in the 2019 season when the Astros and Washington Nationals saw all seven games being won by the road team. With a 3-2 series lead heading back to Houston, the Astros failed to close out that World Series losing game 6 by a final score of 7-2 and then losing game 7 by a final score of 6-2. The current edition of the Astros is a vastly more formidable offense and I do not see them failing to score an abundance of runs in either game. The Starters for Game 6 The Texas Rangers have the edge in starting pitching sending Nathan Eovaldi to the hill to face the Astros Framber Valdez. Eovaldi is making his 29th start of the season and has posted a15-5 record with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP including 156 strikeouts over 163 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts all in the playoffs he has amassed a quite strong 2.29 ERA and a 0.864 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and one walk over 19 2/3 innings of work. Valdez has logged a ton of innings over the past two seasons and that heavy workload is shoing in his recent starts. He will be making his 34th start with a 12-13 record, 3.73 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, and including 211 strikeouts spanning 205 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 9.82 ERA, 2.545 WHIP with 18 strikeouts and nine walks over just 11 innings of work. In two playoff starts he has been hammered to the tune of an 11.57 ERA and a horrid 2.571 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and four walks over just seven innings of work. Valdez could be suffering from a ‘tired arm’ injury where many times the hand goes numb temporarily after a pitch. When this happens you will see the pitcher shaking his hand as if he is trying to loosen up his shoulder, but it is the hand that and fingers that he is tryig to get back to a sense of feeling. I am guessing, but I have been around baseball for more than three decades and I have seen this before and the injury is always accompanied by a significant loss of control and increase in the number of walks. I am surprised that Dusty Baker has elected to go with him for this incredibly important game tonight. The Bullpen Edge Goes to the Astros The reason why Baker may be opting to take a risk and start Valdez is that he knows he has the vastly better bullpen right now. The Rangers need Eovaldi to log as many scoreless innings as possible knowing their bullpen has posted a 4.12 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP, allowing six home runs, 33 strikeouts and 22 walks in the playoffs. The Astros have posted a 2.19 ERA and a 0.811 WHIP with 45 strikeouts, 11 walks, just three home runs allowed in 37 innings of work. Situational Betting Algorithm Supports the Rangers The following betting algorithm has produced a 35-15 record for 70% winners averaging a -105 wager over the past five seasons. Betting on road teams with a solid starter posting an ERA of 3.50 or lower on the season, are priced between a 125 dog and a -125 favorite and facing a host that is hitting no better than 0.260 on the season. 8-Unit Best Bet for Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS is on the Texas Rangers using the money line offered at by DraftKings. So, yes there will be a Game 7 Tuesday Night. |
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10-20-23 | Phillies -122 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks 8:07 PM EST, October 20, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 4 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship. Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season. The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven. In the playoffs, teams with a 2-1 series lead and lost their last game are 36-20 (64%) 30% ROI If a rod favorite: 9-2 (82%) 47% ROI Teams that are winning the series and have a bullpen that is allowing |
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10-19-23 | Phillies -126 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -126 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:07 PM EST, October 19, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 3 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship. Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season. The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven. Road teams in the playoffs that have won the first two games of the series are 28-23 for 55% averaging a +111 DOG and earning a 17% ROI. The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who was drafted #1569 overall in the 5th round of 2020 draft and attended Bellarmine University. He is a right-handed pitcher and MLB prototype 6-4 and 220 pounds. He throws 4-seam 45%, a slurve 27%, change up to mostly LH batters 12% and a sinker 10% and the rest a rare curveball. Since he does throw a slurve (Now called a sweeper and I hate it TBH) so the curve ball rarity is pointless. The bad news for Pfaadt other than being thrown into the Lion’s den, is that he ranks poorly in pitching run value, and just the fifth percentile in fastball run value. Worse yet he ranks in the bottom third percentage in barrel percentage and that is what the Phillies lineup top to bottom does very well right now. I think the Diamondbacks will look to get him through the lineup at least once and no more than twice and then look to their bullpen to finish off the remaining innings. Of the 1,612 pitches he has thrown, he has yielded 109 hits and 26 walks over 96 innings. 74 of the 109 hits allowed had exit velocities of over 100 MPH, which is horrid, especially against a power-hitting team like the Phillies. Moreover, his expected weighted OBP is 0.291enterig this game. Player Props for this Game (1-Unit max each)Brandon Pfaadt Under 11.5 recorded outs +110 at BetMGM Bryson Stott to record an RBI +225 at UniBet Corbin Carroll to record a double +550 at Bet365 Nick Castellanos to score a run +170 at DrfatKings MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 15. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings 16. Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars 17. Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 18. Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100 19. Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100 20. Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100 21. Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers – W +116 22. Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel – L - 160 23. Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM – W +100 24. Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM – W +120 25. Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one) L -50 Total: +701 |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers -127 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -127 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Houston vs Texas 8:03 PM EST, October 18, 2023 Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX 8-UNIT BEST BET on the Texas Rangers using the money line
The Rangers have been nearly as hot as the Phillies in their playoff run and a bit surprising too given that they blew the division crown in the Final weeks and had to go on the road to play a best-of-three series at the Tampa Bay Rays. Texas has won all seven of their playoff games and just one of those games has been at home. They have outscored their foes 39-16 including two shutouts. Teams that won the first two games of a playoff series on the road and now at home have gone 21-14 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 15% ROI. If they are a favorite of not more than -150, they have gone 15-9 SU averaging a -129 wager and earning a 17% ROI. Texas is 14-6 for 70% averaging a -117-wager earning a 35% ROI when facing a foe that is scoring an average of 4.8 or more RPG in games played after the all start break this season.
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -157 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:07 PM EST, October 17, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
Dan Iassogna will be the home plate umpire and for the 2023 season, home teams have gone just 10-20 SU under his strike zone watch. This is quite misleading as coincidentally he was behind the plate in 14 of those games with the home team posting a losing record at the time and with that team going 4-10. So, winning record home teams went 6-10 on the season with Iassogna as the home plate umpire. In the playoffs this will be his 15th game behind the plate and the home team is 7-7, but the Over is 8-4 for 67%. Also, for his career, winning record home teams are 90-71 (56%) when facing a winning record foe. Here is the umpire angle supporting the Phillies. When Iassogna has been behind the dish, winning record home favorites of -150 or more hosting a winning record foe have gone 33-12 for 73% averaging a -178 wager and earning a 22% ROI for his career. Phillies’ skipper Rob Thomson is 41-15 making 22 units when facing a NL foe that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of the season in each of the previous two seasons. In the playoffs, teams that have batted .230 or worse over their previous 15 games have gone 69-104 (40%) averaging a +105 wager and a money-losing -23% ROI. If these teams are on the road have gone 28-52 for 35% averaging a 121 wager and a losing -24% ROI. If the game 2 or beyond and coming off a loss, these road teams have gone 11-26 (30%) averaging a +118 wager and a losing -37% ROI. Player Props for this Game (1-Unit max each)Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one) MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 15. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings 16. Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars 17. Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 18. Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100 19. Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100 20. Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100 Total: +575 |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -159 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:07 PM EST, October 16, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to dd 2 unit smore if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
Based on the analytics, on-base-percentage supersedes home run hitting in the playoffs. Of course, there are the games like Game 4 of the NLCS where all the runs scored in the 3-1 Phillies win were solo home runs. However, the innings and at-bats prior to those home runs set the stage for the Phillies to hit six home runs in Game 3 and three in Game 4. In the playoffs, keeping a starting pitcher under duress with consistent base-running traffic will set the stage for the home run and ultimately the dominant factor in most playoff wins. Then first and third situation is the most stressful for a starting pitcher and the Phillies have generated far more of those situations than any other team in the playoffs. In the playoffs, the Diamondbacks have 44 hits, 21 walks, and 19 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have amassed 54 hits, 23 walks, and 26 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have attained an outstanding 0.411 on-base-percentage while the Diamondbacks are right on their heels posting a 0.393 OBP in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks rank tops in the playoffs having seen an average of 4.27 pitches per plate appearance and the Phillies rank 4th averaging 4.05 pitches seen per plate appearance. The Phillies’ left fielder Nick Castellanos became the first player in MLB post season history to hit two or more home runs in consecutive games and ranks best with 23 total bases in the playoffs. He and teammate Trea Turner rank best with six extra-base hits. Turner ranks best with a remarkable 0.556 batting average of balls in play and 7th in Isolated Power. The depth of this lineup gives the Phillies a significant offensive advantage over the Diamondbacks. The Phillies’ Rookie sensation and center fielder Johan Rojas is already one of the best in the game today and was credited with a potential series saving catch in the gap in deep left-center fielder off the bat of Ronald Acuna. His defense far outweighs his struggles at the plate, and it is a bonus when he gets on base to turn the lineup over. JR Realmuto is the best catcher in the game bar none and over the Phillies defense is monumentally better and more consistent than the Diamondbacks. The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to FaceThe Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson, who utilized 110 different starting lineups this season, and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against any team and have by far the best home field advantage and their incredibly supportive and passionate fan base. There are home field advantages and then there is Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park. As was the case in the two previous series, the biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen, which was outstanding against the Braves. The unit is clearly an example of when you are called into the game just do your job. Phillies’ manager Rob Thomson used the relievers in various roles in the regular and playoff seasons and even had Matt Strahm on the hill to close out the series against the Braves, which was just hist his third save of the season. Situational Team and Player Trends and Angles for the NLCSIn the Phillies’ 3-1 Game-4 win that clinched the Divisional Series over the Braves, both Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber failed to get a hit. In past games, the Phillies are 9-3 following a game in which Schwarber and Stott did not get a hit. Stott and Schwarber are on my radar for the DraftKings lineups for the first two games of this series. Supports Phillies in Game 1. Phillies are 38-14 averaging a -165 wager and earning a 33% ROI in home games and taking on a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower in games played after the all-star break and playoffs in the past two seasons. Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in the first game of a playoff series spanning the last two seasons. The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 33-8 record for 80% winning bets in games played in October and November over the past five regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a foe that has achieved a 0.480 slugging percentage over their previous five games in the month of October.
My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the money line and then look to add the remaining two units if the Diamondbacks score first or retake the lead during the first four innings of this game as offered at DraftKings.\ Player Props for this GameKyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 Bryson Stott to hit a double +525 at BetRivers Alex Bohm to get a hit -250 at Unibet Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 15. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings 16. Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars 17. Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 18. Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers Total: +875 |
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies +133 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 133 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line In this game, like yesterday’s game, I think betting the 8-Units preflop makes sense given the probability – not the certainty – that the Phillies will get out to an early lead and win start to finish. Notice I said probability. Betting against elite offensive teams scoring an average of 5 or more RPG on the season in the playoff rounds that is facing a team, like the Phillies with an exceptional bullpen posting a season to date ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned a 36-11 record for 77% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The Phillies tied a MLB Playoff record with 6 home runs in Wednesday’s huge 10-2 win over the Braves. Note that teams in the playoffs that have hit four or more home runs in their previous home game and now playing at home again have gone 9-3 SU averaging a -111 wager and earning a 47% ROI. Harper hit two home runs and in previous games in which he hit 2+ home runs his teams have gone 10-5 for a 25% ROI. Castellanos hit two home runs in his previous game and the Phillies are 4-1 in the next game. Player Props for this GameKyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 Total: +875 |
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10-11-23 | Astros v. Twins -119 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins 7:07 EST 10-Unit Best Bet on the Twins using the money line, currently priced at -120. This line is likely to trend a bit lower ahead of the first pitch in the aftermath of the monster win by the Astros last night and the public’s recency bias. So far, 76% of the tickets and only 55% of the money has been on the Astros and this sentiment is bullish on the Twins. Betting on home teams that have gone 10 straight games committing no more than a single error in any of them and facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game have gone 101-55 SU for 65% winning bets averaging a -100 bet and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI since 2019. If in the playoffs, these teams have gone a perfect 7-0 averaging a -105 wager and earning a 100% ROI. In the playoffs, Home teams that are facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game of the series have gone 11-2 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 64% ROI. Player Props: Pizza MONEY sizeAaron Nola Over 4.5 strikeouts -160 at DraftKings Trea Turner top hit a home run +390 1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 Total: +875 |
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10-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies -118 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Citizens Bank Park, Atlanta, GA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line In this game, I think betting the 8-Units preflop makes sense given the probability – not the certainty – that the Phillies will get out to an early lead and win start to finish. Notice I said probability. Betting against elite offensive teams scoring an average of 5 or more RPG on the season in the playoff rounds that is facing a team, like the Phillies with an exceptional bullpen posting a season to date ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned a 35-11 record for 75% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. |
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10-09-23 | Phillies +142 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Truist Park, Atlanta, GA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line As we did in the historic Game 1 win by the Phillies, consider betting 5.5 units on the money line and 2.5 units on the +1.5-run line. The expectations for this Game 2 of the NLDS is that the Braves are too good not to bounce back with a ‘must-win’ performance tonight. However, the Braves Achilles heel was revealed in game 1 as their production has dropped significantly when facing power hurlers averaging 97+ MPH. Zack Wheeler is one of them and he is pitching tremendous baseball right and he is a priced as a dog. Wheeler is 12-8 in 28 career starts against the Braves with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP. The Braves will start Max Fried, who has been battling nagging injuries and is 4-4 in 14 career starts against the Phillies with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP. For his career, Wheeler is 6-6 averaging a 170-underdog bet and earning a 32% ROI when priced as a +150 and greater underdog. Every start has been on the road. For this season, he has gone 14-6 in 33 starts with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.062 WHIP including 220 strikeouts and just 39 walks spanning 198 2/3 innings of work. In 17 road starts he has been even better with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.042 WHIP including 115 strikeouts and just 20 walks and allowed just 7 home runs spanning 102 2/3 innings of work. Of all starters with 450 or more batted ball events, Wheeler is tied with Corbin Burnes for the MLB best 3.4% barrels per plate appearance. This means that only three batters ever get credit with hitting the ball on the sweet spot or barrel of the bat. So, for every 27 batters Wheeler faces will square up the barrel of the bat on one of his deliveries. That is remarkable and that is the elixir that gives the Braves nightmares. Wheeler ranks third in MLB with an 11.9% hard-hit percentage of pitches thrown 95 or more MPH and third with an average exit velocity of just 86.9 MPH. Fried has not had enough batted ball events to be part of that list. He is an excellent starter and will throw fastball 45%, 12% slider, 17% change (used mostly to RH batters), and curve 26%. He does have one of the best curve balls in the game and largely because of the very high spin rate that averages 2800 MPH. At that high of a spin rate, makes it difficult for any batter to identify. However, that pitch starts a bit higher out of the release than his fastball and that will help Phillies batters. You can bet that he will throw that pitch a lot to the LH batters such as Schwarber and Harper tonight. Betting on road underdogs coming off a an upset win over a divisional rival and is now starting a pitcher that has allowed no more than a single earned run in each of his last two outings has earned a highly profitable 26-20 for 57%, but has averaged a +152 wager and earning a 41% ROI in games bet over the past 5 seasons. If our road warrior is priced as a +140 and higher dog, they soar to a remarkable 16-11 record averaging a 175 wager and earning a 61% ROI over the past five seasons.
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round Marlins vs Phillies MLB 10-UNIT BEST BET Titan on the Phillies using the money line Consider betting 7.5-Units on the money line pre-flop and then look to add the remaining 2.5 units if the Marlins score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of action. OR Place 7 units on the money line pre-flop because they are priced as a -150 money line favorite and then look for Miami to score first or possibly retake the lead over the first three innings and add the 3-units on the -1.5 run line, which would be at least +150 in this situation. Phillies have won many games coming from behind late in the games this season. In fact, they have won 18 games ranking second most being tied or down no more than 2 runs entering the 9th inning. Moreover, when the game was home at Citizens’ Bank Park, the Phillies won 9 games tied for most comeback wins with the Tampa Bay Rays. In home games this season, the Phillies posted the best record at 25-21 when the foe scored first in the game. Aaron Nola has had an up and down type of season, but he has pitched well down the stretch. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.60 ERA and a 1.038 WHIP with just one walk allowed and striking out 17 batters over 17 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed 32 home runs on the season, but just one over his last three starts and three over his last six starts. Earlier this year starting in late April he went 11 consecutive starts allowing at least one home run. So, don’t count on any starter’s season-to-date stats to have significant meaning in the playoffs rounds. Braxton Garrett is a lefty and will start the game for the Marlins. The Phillies line up scored almost a run less versus LH starters than RH starters on the season, but they also averaged a bit more than the average NL team when facing a LH starter. Garrett throws a fastball with solid sinking action about 40% of the time and then adds a slurve (sweeper) about 42% and then the remaining 18% is the change thrown almost exclusively to RH starters and a curve to LH batters. His spin rates are average or slightly below average for a MLB pitcher and the Phillies are a disciplined hitting team overall. The best eye on the team is their leadoff slugger Kyle Schwarber and he will look to get a maximum number of pitches thrown before he reaches base or records an out. Patience on the first pitch will be key IMO. Garrett has allowed a terrible 45% hard hit percentage. Nola just 38%. Garrett has recorded a 0.272 expected batting average as compared to Nola’s 0.241. Last, the Phillies bullpen is completely rested, and this is by far the biggest advantage they have tonight. For the season the relievers have posted a 3.53 ERA and a 1.265 WHIP spanning 545 innings of work including 592 strikeouts. Over the past 7 games, the unit has posted a 1.27 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP with 37 strikeouts over 28 1/3 innings of work. The Marlines pen has thrown 80 innings more than the Phillies posting a 4.39 ERA and a 1.352 WHIP. Player Props for this Game1. Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet 2. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 3. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 Total: +515 |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -142 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:00 PM EST, October 3, 2023 Betting on NL home teams using the money line that are averaging 1.30 or more home runs per game and have batted .250 or lower spanning their last 20 games has earned a 77-31 record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Zack Wheeler will be on the hill tonight and he is 10-4 in 22 career starts against the Marlins with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.040 WHIP. He has allowed three or fewer ER in all but two of those 22 starts and allowed 6 ER in three starts spanning 18 innings. In 32 starts this season, Wheeler has posted a 13-6 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.073 WHIP including 212 strikeouts, just 39 BB over 192 inning of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.65 ERA and a 1.118 ERA with 16 K’s and 4 BB spanning 17 innings. Wheeler has a great fastball that he can vary between a 97 MPH with late-breaking arm side movement that rides onto the hands of a RH batter to a fastball with heavy sinking action that averages 95 to 98 MPH. That pair of fastballs account for 62% of his pitches and then throws a knee buckling slider that averages 90 MPH and a curve that averages 81 MPH. His spins rates are quite high and among the best in MLB with FB averaging 2500 RPM, slider 2675 RPM, and the curve an amazing 2750 RPM. The high spin rates make the ball ‘tight’ and nearly impossible for the batters to identify which pitch he has thrown. Jesus Lazardo takes the ball for game 1 and has average to below average spin rates and is facing one of the best and hardest hitting lineups in the NL. The Phillies have 8 batters averaging 42% and higher hard hit ball percentages and 7 of them are starters led by Kyle Schwarber, who is averaging 49% hard hit with a 92.4 average exit velocity. Here are a few Player Props and I do not recommend more than 1-unit on these throughout the playoffs. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays +108 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Tuesday, October 3, 2023 MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins 8-Unit best bet on the on the Blue Jays using the money line Game 1 of the MLB Wild Card playoffs are set and this is game 1 between the Blue Jays and the Twins set to take place at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN with the first pitch scheduled for 4:30 PM EST. This game is televised on ESPN. In the Wild Card round, betting on teams that are priced between a -130 favorite and +130 underdog that won more games than their foe during the regular season has earned an outstanding 27-7 for 79% averaging a -102 money line and earning a highly profitable 60% ROI over the last 20 seasons when there were three game series. Kevin Gausman is penciled in for the Blue Jays and is coming off another solid season going 12-9 in 31 starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP including 237 strikeouts spanning 185 innings of work. Over his last three starts he posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.302 WHIP including 20 strikeouts and 17 2/3 innings of work. He made 15 starts and went 5-3 with a sparkling 2.58 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP including 116 strikeouts over 90 2/3 innings of work. Pablo Lopez will on the hill for the Twins and he has posted weak number recently with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.305 WHIP including 21 strikeouts over his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings of work. Currently 72% of the tickets, but just 49% of the money is being bet on the Twins and this reflects larger bets being made on the Blue Jays. Twins are 7-17 on the money line in games with a posted total of 7 or 7.5 runs this season. |
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09-26-23 | Padres v. Giants +115 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants 9:45 PM EST, September 26, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Giants using the money line.
Betting on home teams that have averaged fewer than 2.5 extra-base hits over their last 15 games and now facing a foe that has batted 0.300 or better over their last five games has produced an 87-56 record for 61% winning bets averaging a +115 underdog and earning a highly profitable 27% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. |
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09-26-23 | Cubs v. Braves -129 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves 7:20 PM EST, Tuesday 9/26 8-Unit Best Bet on the Braves using the money line Consider betting 2.5 units on the run line and then 5.5 units on the money line. The Braves clinched the NL East division title for 6th consecutive year, and it does feel like it was accomplished months ago. They are still competing for the top seed in the playoffs and home field advantage throughout over the Dodgers. So, you do not have to be concerned about them mailing this one in on Tuesday. Betting on favorites between -140 and -195 using the money line that is scoring at least 4.5 RPG, is averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game, and facing a NL foe starting a pitcher with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 33-11 record good for 73% winning bets averaging a -158 wager and earning a 30% ROI over the past 15 seasons. Justin Steele will be on the hill for the Cubs and is not in good form especially having to face by far the best offense in baseball. He has posted a 4.31 ERA and a 1.437 WHIP including 2 walks and 17 strikeouts over his last three starts. Bryce Elder has not lost a start since August 15 and he is 12-4 in 30 starts with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. |
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09-26-23 | Rays v. Red Sox +119 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Boston 7:10 PM EST, September 26, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the money line. The AL divisional race has been a great one, but now the Rays are 2.5 games back with just 5 games remaining on the schedule for the division-leading Baltimore Orioles, who have six games remaining. Realistically, the Rays are not going to sweep the Toronto Blue Jays, who they face in the final 3-games of the season. The Blue Jays are in the neck-to-neck race for the wire with the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners. I believe you will see the Rays get their starting pitching set for their first-round matchup against the Minnesota Twins. This two-games series marks the final home games at Fenway Park, which will be sold out. The Red Sox have had a successful season despite not making into the postseason. Remember, they were not expected to win more than 70 games and sentiment was more focused on if they would lose 100 or more games. They certainly overachieved and the fans will up for fan appreciation celebrations in these two games. Betting on teams that are on an excellent fielding streak that have gone 10 consecutive games committing no more than a single error in any of them and has a well-rested bullpen that has thrown three or fewer inning over their last two games has earned a 69-42 record. If our home team is priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 dog, their record improves to 17-6 averaging a 45% ROI and 45% Roi over the past five seasons. |
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09-25-23 | Astros +115 v. Mariners | Top | 5-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners 8-Unit best bet on the Astros using the money line What a great finish we have going on in MLB and the AL West is certainly center stage with three teams competing for divisional crowns and wild card berths not to mention their playoff lives. The Mariners really were not liked by the schedulers having to play the Rangers in Arlington over the weekend and they, as I had predicted, lost all of the games. Tie-breakers will come to the forefront this week as well. Check out this betting algorithm that has produced a terrific 44-19 record good for 70% winning bets averaging a +121 underdog and earning a 48% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are facing a team fresh off a three-game losing sweep to a divisional foe and has won between 50 and 55% of their games on the season. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record for these road teams improves to 19-12 averaging a +133 wager and earning a 38% ROI. If the occurs in the month of September has produced a sensational 11-5 record averaging a +129 wager and earning a 58% ROI. |
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09-22-23 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies 8-Unit best bet on the Phillies using the money line Friday With everything going on with College (17-6 ATS 74% winning bets) and NFL Football (8-4-1 ATS 67% winning bets) these MLB reports will be brief, but still model identified and the same strength as any other MLB best bet. Betting on home teams that are batting 0.220 or lower over their last 7 games and is starting a pitcher that allowed 5 or more runs including unearned runs in each of his last two starts has produced an exceptional 42-19 record for 69% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 44% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. Former Met Taijuan Walker will be on the hill for the Phillies and has struggled of late posting a 7.27 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP, but has still averaged 5.8 innings per starts. He did allow 5 and 6 runs in this previous two starts, but is projected to bounce back with quality start tonight. Tylor Megill starts tonight and he has gotten hammered on road over 11 starts with a 7.08 ERA and a 2.085 WHIP averaging just 4.3 innings per road start. Phillies should get to him with multiple run innings and win the game. |
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09-18-23 | Phillies -109 v. Braves | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 10-Unit best bet on the Phillies boxed with Wheeler on the money line Monday, September 18, 2023 The Braves will try to bounce back after being swept over the weekend, but it is uncertain whether MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. will be in the lineup when Atlanta hosts the Philadelphia Phillies for three games beginning Monday night. The slugging right fielder left Friday's game early with right calf tightness and did not play Saturday or Sunday. He will work out on Monday and have his availability determined at that time. Acuna is batting .337 with 37 homers, 98 RBIs and 66 stolen bases this season. This opportunity is with Acuna playing, so it gets better if he is scratched. The Braves (96-53) were swept in Miami over the weekend, the first time they've lost a series to an intra-division opponent since April 2021. Philadelphia (81-68) took two of three at St. Louis, dropping Sunday's series finale 6-5. The Braves were guaranteed a first-round playoff bye on Sunday when Milwaukee lost to Washington. Philadelphia has a three-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the race for the first NL wild-card spot. So, the Phillies certainly have an edge form a motivational standpoint as they are still being chased for the top wild card berth and the right to host the wild card 3-game playoff round. Betting on winning record road teams facing another winning record divisional foe, who is coming off a three-game sweep to a divisional foe have gone 35-24 SU averaging a +105 wager and earning an outstanding 22% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. The +1.5 run line bet if available for the road team has earned a 26-87 record averaging a _150 bet and making a 35%Roi in games bet over the past five seasons. |
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09-15-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +145 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Friday, 6:35 PM EST, September 15, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Pirates using the money line, currently priced at +120 and is a valid bet to the Pirates being a -110 favorite. The Betting Angles Supporting the Pirates Yankees are 9-17 averaging a _142 favorite and earning a dismal -44% ROI when facing a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower on the season in games played after the break over the past two seasons. Pirates are 25-24 averaging a +145 wager and earning a 24% ROI when facing a team that is averaging 1.25 or more HR per game this season and if at home 10-7 averaging a +132 wager and earning a 37% ROI this season. The Yankees may hit alot of home runs, but they do not hit well in situations with men on base and opportunities to score runs. Over the past seven games they have batted just 0.176 and scoring an average of 3.1 RPG. For the season, it is truly hard to believe this team with their 330MM+ payroll is scoring an average of 4.2 RPG and batting 0.225 with a horrid 0.298 on-base-percentage. They rank 29th of the 32 teams in the league in OBP and are ahead of the cellar dwelling Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, and the Chicago White Sox. Gerrit Cole will be on the mound and he has been one of the bright lights in an otherwise horrid Yankee seasons. He is 13-4 in 30 starts with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.027 EWHIP including 45 walks and 204 strikeouts spanning 187 inning of work. He has posted a 1.42 ERA and a o.895 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 19 innings of work. However, the Yankees bullpen is a mess of late and even if the Pirates trail when Cole is brought out of the game, they will still have a chance to win the game. The PIrates will hand the ball to Johan Oviedo, who is making his 30th start and is 8-14 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.342 WHIP spanning 161 2/3 innings of work. He is pitching his best baseball right now posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. He has an electric fastball that averages 96 MPH with late arm-side tailing action. The Yankees are not a disciplined hitting team and this is the type of pitch that gets them out and produces weakly hit ground balls and strikeouts. His slider, though, may be his best pitch and averages an above average 88 MPH, but again has tremendous movement with many of these pitches being whiffed at and out of the strike zone. |
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09-08-23 | Padres v. Astros -131 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Consider betting 8-Unit son the money line and 2-Units on the -1.5 run-line
Betting on home teams that are in an inter-league matchup and coming off a three-game series sweep of a divisional foe has earned a 46-12 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 47% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record has been an impressive 14-3 averaging a -138 wager and earning a 49% ROI over the past five seasons. Plus, a near-perfect 7-1 if facing a losing record foe. This algo has gone a quite impressive 10-2 averaging -116 wager and earning a 55% ROI this season. The Astros, set to host the San Diego Padres in a three-game interleague series starting Friday, outscored Texas 39-10 and hit 16 home runs during the series while gaining sole possession of first place in the AL West Division for the first time this season spanning 141 games or with just 21 games remaining on the season. Cy Young contender and left-hander Blake Snell, who is 12-9 with a 2.50 has the starting assignment for the Padres on Friday. Snell leads the NL in ERA, opponent batting average (.191) and opponent OPS (.611), and ranks second in both whiffs percentage (37.0) and strikeouts (201). However, he also has recorded the most walks (89) and wild pitches (12) in the majors. Snell is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA over seven career starts against the Astros. In his last appearance against Houston on May 30, 2021, Snell surrendered seven runs on five hits and three walks with three strikeouts over three innings in a 7-4 road loss. Despite being more than two years removed from facing the Astros the memories of facing them are not good and the Astros bats are scorching hot. Since 2007, there have been only three other teams to have hit 15 home runs in a three-game span. In 2019, the Yankees did it and won their next game 12-6. IN 2019, the Nationals did it and lost the next game 4-1. In 2020, the Blue Jays did it and won the next game 7-2 and also in 2020, the Yankees did it and won the next game 6-5. So, overall, teams that have hit 15 or more home runs in a three game span are 3-1. |
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09-05-23 | Astros v. Rangers +102 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers 8-Unit best bet on the Rangers using the money line I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play. Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI. |
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09-05-23 | Mariners v. Reds +136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 136 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play. Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI. |
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09-05-23 | Red Sox +139 v. Rays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 43-49 record for 47% winning bets, but by averaging a 147 underdog wager has earned a solid 15% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break, the record has been 20-18 for 53% winners averaging a 147 wager and earning a 30% ROI. |
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09-04-23 | Giants v. Cubs -132 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs 8-Unit best bet on the Cubs using the money line I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for the Giants to score first or retake the lead during the first 3 innings of action and then bet 1-unit on the Cubs using the money line. After winning Game of their four-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres, the Giants lost the next three games scoring just 4 runs and getting shutout yesterday. The Cubs have won 8 of 12 games and are coming off a four-game split to their division-rival Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies enjoy a 5.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, while the Cubs are currently in the second slot. Then there is a big-time log jam with the Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Reds in a dead heat for the third and final wild card berth. The key info to know is that the Giants own most of the tie-breakers and the Diamondbacks do not. Betting on teams that have won 51 to 55% of their games that are facing a foe that is on a 3-game losing streak having lost each of those games to a divisional foe has gone 11-2 for 85% averaging a -141 wager and earning a 45% ROI since 2019. If our team is the home favorite, then our team has gone a near-perfect 8-1 averaging a -127 wager and earning a 65% ROI. |
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08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +130 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Thursday – Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers 10-Unit best bet on the Dodgers using the money line I recommend betting this game with 8-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add the remaining two-unit amount if the Braves to score first, which they are quite good at doing this season, or retake the lead at some point over the first three innings of action. The Braves own the major leagues' best record at 87-45 averaging a -181 wager and earning a 7% ROI, with the Dodgers second best at 83-49 averaging a -162 wager and earning a 6% ROI and closing fast with 24 victories in 28 games this month. The August success has given Los Angeles its third most wins in a single month in franchise history. With another victory on Thursday, the Dodgers would tie their single-month high accomplished in June 1947 and August 1953. This is certainly a potential preview of the NLCS, but the Philadelphia Phillies are playing spectacular baseball in their own right. Betting on any team that is averaging 5.0 or more RPG and has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their two previous games and facing a NL foe with a strong starter with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 158-109 record good for 59% and earning a respectable 9% ROI. If the game takes place after the all start break the record improves to 62-30 for 67% winning bets and earns a 24% ROI. If our team is the dog, the record is 12-12, but averaging a +140 wager produces an exceptional 26% ROI and if they are a home dog, a perfect 3-0. Betting on home dogs using the +1.5-run line that are facing a foe that is batting 0.290 or better over their previous 20 games has earned a 103-57 mark good for 64% winning bets over the past seven seasons. If our dog is priced at no higher than 150 on the money line, the run line record has gone 75-32 for 70% winning bets earning a highly profitable 27% ROI over the past seven seasons. I mention this as an alternative in-game bet to take the +1.5 run line if the Braves score first. In only one other occasion this season has the Dodgers been priced as a home dog. Home dogs that are in a matchup where both they and their foe have won at least 60% of their games on the season and the game occurring after the all-star break has earned a 13-11 record for 54%, Averaging a 121 wager and earning a 19% ROI. |
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08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Thursday – Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting on teams priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog that are facing an excellent starter that has posted an ERA of 0.00 over his previous three starts has earned a 22-6 record averaging a +111 wager and earning an outstanding 49% ROI since 2016. Yes, that is a great contrarian betting system and we are getting the Rangers cheap given their recent six game losing streak too. The Twins bullpen has been a bit unstable recently compiling a 5.87 ERA and a 1.696 WHIP over their previous seven games. Pablo Lopez will have the ball to start the game and has produced amazing numbers with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP, 3-0 record including 22 strikeouts and just three free passes spanning 19 innings of work. He has worked 6 or more innings in each of his last five starts and has not allowed more than 2 ER in six straight starts. His recent excellence somehow works against him and other starters, who have managed to allow zero earned runs over a 3-start span. Once again, the Twins bullpen imploded Wednesday in an extra-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Twins starter Maeda went 5 innings allowing 3 ER, 2 BB, and 6 Ks. The Twins used four relievers, who allowed a combined 4 ER over 5 innings including two walks and 3 Ks and one home run. The Rangers will start Andrew Heaney, who is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.781 WHIP over his last three starts. He has recorded 122 strikeouts over 118 innings on the season. He is a traditional three-pitch starter featuring a 4-Seam fastball that is used 58%, an excellent slider, used 24%, and a change used 18% and mostly to left-handed hitters. Despite averaging 92.5 MPH with his fastball, the differential in speed to his slider is an optimal 12 MPH making it difficult for any batter, especially RH ones, to identify the pitch. He averages an excellent 27% whiff percentage on all pitches thrown and the Twins have 7 batters that have chase rates of more than 30%. Pablo Lopez has above average spin rates, but not as elite as Heaney, who averages an amazing 2500 RPM with his slider. Lopez has excellent late-breaking sinking action with his fastball. However, the Rangers have 6 batters in the lineup that are averaging 90 MPH exit velocities and understand how to lay off a fastball that is heavy and has late movement that ride up the handle of RH batters. |
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08-21-23 | Red Sox +115 v. Astros | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Boston vs Houston 8-Unit Best bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line Bet 7-unit son the money line and then look to add a 1-unit amount on the +1.5 run line if the Astros score first or take the lead at any point during the first three innings. James Paxton will be on the hill for the Sox and the left-hander has gone 9-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.270 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Astros. He is 7-3 in 16 starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP including 93 strikeouts and 23 walks over 86 1/3 innings of work. He is 6-2 in night starts with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP with 78 strikeouts and 17 walks over 68 1/3 innings of work. Betting on any winning record team that is facing a foe coming off a three straight losses to a divisional foe priced as favorites and has won 54 to 60% of their games has gone 43-29 for 60% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 15 seasons. If our team is a road dog of any size, they have gone 21-7 for 75% winners averaging a +135 wager and earning a 57% ROI over the past 15 seasons. |
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08-18-23 | Rays v. Angels -107 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Rays vs LA Angels Betting on home favorites up to -125 using the money line that have lost five straight games to the current foe has produced a 31-19 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 20 seasons. The Angels have lost five straight games to the Rays with the last win taking place May 10 of the 2022 season. That win was 12-0. The Rays will start Erasmo Ramirez, who is making his second start and will be kept on a short leash. He went three innings in his first start. The Rays bullpen is a mess currently and have posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.588 WHIP over their past seven games. So, this is an excellent situation for the Angels to bounce back with significant offensive output. |
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08-18-23 | Mariners +141 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 141 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Friday – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Start Time is 8:10 PM EST. Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the money line and then look for the Astros to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action. Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 4.5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 50-54 record for 48% winning bets, but by averaging a 147-underdog wager has earned a solid 18% ROI over the past five seasons. If ther game occurs after the all-star break, these road dogs have gone 19-17 for 53% an has earned a 30.4% ROI over the past five seasons. Julio Rodriguez is hotter than the surface of the sun and he has led the Mariners, 5-2 with a plus-16 run differential against Houston this season, with their torrid play with a 6-4 road victory over the Kansas City Royals on Thursday. Seattle has won six consecutive road series and seven of eight series overall and closed to within 3 1/2 games of the Astros in pursuit of one of two American League wild-card bids. The Mariners center fielder Rodriguez was moved into the leadoff spot and during that seven-game span, Rodriguez is batting .417 with 16 RBIs, including a 5-for-5 effort in the series finale with the Royals that included five RBIs and a go-ahead, three-run home run in the eighth inning. Rodriguez went 12-for-21 with 11 RBIs in the four-game series. |
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08-01-23 | Mets v. Royals +136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 136 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Tuesday – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros The Astros are an 8-Unit best bet using the run line over the Guardians. The recommended strategy is to place 6-unit son the run line and then add 2-units using the money line if the Guardians score first during the first three innings of this game. Betting on home favorites in a non-divisional clash that have scored 25 or more runs over their last three games and with a total between seven and nine runs and the game is NOT the last game of a series has earned a 64-17 ML record (79%) averaging a -200 wager and earning a 24% ROI and a 52-29 record for 64% averaging a 105 wager on the -1.5 run line and earning a 25% ROI since 2011. Bet the Astros as an 8-Unit best bet Tuesday night using the run line. Kansas City vs NY Mets Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets 8-UNIT BEST BET on the Kansas City Royals using the money line.I recommend placing 85% of your normal bet size on the Royals pre flop (before the game starts) and then add the remaining 15% at any point over the first three innings that the Royals are trailing. This means adding at that moment, not when the ½ inning concludes, that the Mets take the lead in the first three innings. Betting on teams that are coming off a three-game sweep against a divisional foe and now playing in an inter-league game have gone a quite impressive 46-11 averaging a +105 wager and earning a 52% ROI over the last five seasons. Betting on all underdogs of +140 or more that is starting a pitcher in poor form sporting an ERA of 7 or higher over his last five starts and taking on a foe that is allowing an average of just 4.5 or more RPG has earned a solid 45-35 record averaging a +171 wager and earning a 35% ROI over the last five seasons. The veteran and seemingly ageless Zack Greinke will be on the hill for the Royals tonight. |
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08-01-23 | Reds v. Cubs -159 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs If our foe has a winning record the system record soars to a remarkable 29-11 averaging a -153 wager and earning a 24% ROI. |
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07-23-23 | Dodgers -113 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
The Dodgers Are Who We Thought They Are
Despite the large number of injuries to the Dodger’s pitching staff, they are taking control of the NL West Division race. They are 17 games over .500 with a 57-40 record and have stretched their division-leading lead to four games over the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers have won 69% of their games played in July ranking third-best behind the surging Boston Red Sox (73%) and Milwaukee Brewers (71%). Even more impressive is that the Dodgers have won road series against the first-place Baltimore Orioles and now the first-place Texas Rangers that concludes a 9-game road trip today. The Dodgers starting rotation includes names no one expected to see lumped together this season. Bobby Miller started Saturday’s 16-3 blowout win over the Rangers and completed six innings allowing three earned runs for a quality start. In 10 starts, Miller is 6-1 with a 4.28 ERA allowing 49 hits, 16 walks, and striking out 53 batters spanning 54 2/3 innings of work. Sunday’s starter is scheduled to be Emmet Sheehan, who is 3-0 in five starts with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP including 11 walks and 18 strikeouts spanning 25 2/3 innings of work. He has a 95 MPH fastball, 87 MPH slider, and a 82 MPH changeup used against left-handed batters. He throws the fastball 65% of all pitches and you can expect the Rangers lineup to be looking at attacking that first pitch offering. Sheehan may get into trouble early, but the Dodgers bullpen has been expectational posting a 1.03 ERA and a 0.949 WHIP spanning 26 1/3 innings of work over their last seven games. Their best relievers are all available today having needed none of them in yesterday’s blowout win. The Rangers will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill to make his 19th start of the season. He has posted a mediocre 4.84 ERA and 1.500 WHIP with 36 walks and 62 strikeouts spanning 96 2/3 innings of work. However, he has struggled in his three most recent starts posting an 8.03 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP including eight walks and just six strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings of work. He will be making his ninth day start of the season and has posted a terrible 7.54 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP with 15 walks and 19 strikeouts over 37 innings of work. The Rangers and Dodgers rank first and second respective in scoring offense at 5.78 RPG and 5.71 RPG on the season. Both starters may not even make it into the fifth inning and for that reason I like the Dodgers will the monumentally better bullpen in this matchup. The following situational betting system has earned a 43-30 record for 59% winning bets that have averaged a +118 wager for a 24% ROI in bets made over the past five seasons. The requirements are to be on NL road teams that are averaging at least 4.5 RPG on the season and facing a foe from the AL that is scoring at least 5.4 RPG. Drilling down a bit further, if the game is the last game of the series, the road teams have gone 16-10 for 62% winning tickets averaging a +114 wager and earning highly profitable 28% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.
Bet Martin Perez Over 2.5 walks allowed +127 at Caesars Bet Max Muncy to hit a home run +310 at PointsBet Bet Chris Taylor Over 0.5 RBI +195 at BetMGM |
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07-18-23 | Padres -126 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-UNIT Best Bet on the San Diego Padres using the money line when take on the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday. |
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07-06-23 | Orioles -117 v. Yankees | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-Unit best bet on the Baltimore Orioles using the money line when take on the New York Yankees Thursday with the first pitch set for 7:05 PM EST. Despite playing in the early evening, the weather temps will be just off the highs of the days in the region. |
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07-05-23 | Phillies +114 v. Rays | Top | 8-4 | Win | 114 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
8-Unit best bet on the Philadelphia Phillies using the money line when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays |
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06-25-23 | Mets v. Phillies -163 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Zack Wheeler will be on the hill for the Phillies and he is 6-4 in 15 starts with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.114 WHIP including 20 walks and 98 strikeouts spanning 88 innings of work. He has pitched remarkably well over his last three starts posting a remarkable 0.47 ERA and a 0.776 WHIP including four walks and 19 strikeouts spanning 19 1/34 innings of work. |
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06-25-23 | Twins -133 v. Tigers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Detroit |
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06-17-23 | Reds +107 v. Astros | Top | 10-3 | Win | 107 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
10-UNIT Best Bet on the Cincinnati Reds to defeat the Houston Astros using the money line. |
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06-10-23 | Dodgers v. Phillies +101 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Los Angeles vs Philadelphia |
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06-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Tigers +115 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Arizona vs Detroit 8-Unit Bet on the Detroit Tigers using the money line |
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05-31-23 | Yankees +130 v. Mariners | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Betting on any AL team that is batting no better than 0.260 for the season and has scored seven or more runs in three consecutive games has earned a highly profitable 154-94 averaging a –103 wager and earning a 17.25% ROI since the start of the 2004 season. If our team is priced as the dog, the record improves to 54-46 averaging a +139 wager and earning a 26% ROI. Moreover, if our dog is priced between 125 and 175 on the money line, they get even better producing a 26-15 record averaging a +151 wager and earning a 59% ROI. The Dime bettor has made $67,200 betting on this situational system and has not had a losing season ever. Here is a second situational betting system that has earned a 58-25 record averaging a +142 wager and earning an outstanding 33% ROI. The requirements are to bet on road dogs between 125 and 175 that is facing a starter in solid form posting a WHIP of 1.100 or lower spanning his last ten starts and has posted as 1.100 or better WHIP for the current season. |
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05-23-23 | A's +220 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners |
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05-23-23 | White Sox +120 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 120 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
CWS vs Cleveland |
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05-19-23 | Cubs v. Phillies -122 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies The Cubs will have Marcus Stroman on the hill, who has posted a 2-4 record with a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP including 19 walks and 47 strikeouts over 50 innings pitched. The Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, who will be making his secod start of the season after returning from the injury list. He allowed three earned runs over four innings of work in the loss to the Coloardo Rockies. The Phillies are 19-11 in home games when on a two game losing streak averaging a –137 wager when Bryce Harper has had two or fewer hits over his two previous games played spanning the last three seasons. When Harper and fellow teammate Kyle Schwarber are coming off a game in which both had no more than a single hit, the Phillies are 24-13 averaging a –136 favorite in home games played over the past three seasons. A Highly Profitable Situational Super System The following situational super system has produced a 75-39 record for 66% winning bets averaging a –115 wager and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team winning between 45 and 50% of their games that has lost four or five of their last six games and is playing a struggling team winning between 40 and 45% of their games. Drilling deeper into the data if the guest is a divisional foe the record soars to 44-16 for 73% winning tickets averaging a –117 wager and earning a 37% ROI over the past five seasons. Bet the Phillies Friday. |
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05-15-23 | Twins v. Dodgers -112 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Minnesota vs LA Dodgers Betting on teams that allowed two or fewer runs in each of their past two games and facing a foe coming off a slugfest in which 15 or more runs were scored has earned a 52-32 record averaging a –100 bet and earning a 17% ROI over the past five seasons. If our team ws the host, the record soars to 33-9 for a 44% ROi over the past five seasons. |
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05-15-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox +107 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Seattle vs Boston |
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05-15-23 | Angels v. Orioles +115 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Only five current players on the Orioles roster have faced Ohtani but have batted a combined 0.500 against him. Adam Frazier has 8 at bats and four hits, Cedric Mullins is 2-for 3 with a homerun and Anthony Santander is 2-for-2 with a home run. Baltimore’s bullpen is far superior to the Angles. They allow 31% of inherited runners to score. The Angels pen allows 50% ranking third worst in MLB. Betting on home teams priced between a 125 dog and –125 favorite that have won four of their last five games in the first game of a series has earned a 28-16 record for 64% and earning a highly profitable 27% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. |
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05-05-23 | Red Sox +139 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 139 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Red Sox vs Phillies 8-UNIT best Bet on the Red Sox using the money line currently at +125 The 76ers will be hosting the Celtics a few hundred yards from Citizen’s Bank Park at the same time so the atmosphere will be more than just festive. However, the Phillies are not closing games well and the Red Sox offense has been steadily getting better and more consistent since the start of the season. Again, we are betting numbers and not mascots and not if the other’s city’s NBA franchise is playing at the same time. It is noteworthy however. Boston is scoring 6.1 RPG and batting .286 against RH starters and over the past seven days has averaged 7 RPG and batted 0.350. So, Wheller will have his hands full even if he is in top form tonight |
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04-18-23 | Cubs v. A's +170 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Chicago Cubs vs Oakland A’s |
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04-18-23 | Twins v. Red Sox -105 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Boston |
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04-18-23 | Phillies -117 v. White Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs CWS Phillies skipper Thomson is 23-7 making 16 units on the money line when his team has lost four or five of their last 6 games. Phillies are 45-25 making 19 units following a game in which the bullpen did not allow an earned run in games played over the past two seasons. The CWS will have Lance Lynn on the hill and he is nowhere close to top form sporting a 7.31 ERA and 1.625 WHIP over his three starts and is now facing the strongest hitting team in the NL and perhaps all of baseball in the Phillies. |
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04-14-23 | Angels -110 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Boston Red Sox |
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04-14-23 | Guardians -151 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
Cleveland vs Washington |
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04-11-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -136 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -136 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Miami vs Philadelphia Situational Betting Angles Betting on home favorites up to and including –155 on the money line in a divisional matchup and not the first game of a series, that are coming off a game priced as a home dog in which they scored at least 5 runs in a single inning and won the game are 43-22 for 66.2% winning bets averaging a –127 wager, making the Dime bettor a profit of $16,125 for a robust 22% ROI. Aaron Nola led the league with a remarkable strikeout to walk ratio of 8.10 meaning he recorded more than 8 strikeouts for every free pass he issued on the season. His ERA was 3.25 over 32 starts, but had a 2.58 fielding independent pitching stat. The fact that the FIP is significantly lower than his true ERA reflects an above average of plays, like errors and dropped third strikes, that he had no control over while on the mound. So, he was even better than many of his metrics and I believe he will steadily pitch better over his remaining starts in Aril and start off May in Cy Young-contender form. Bet the Phillies. |
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04-03-23 | Twins -119 v. Marlins | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
MLB |
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10-11-22 | Guardians +180 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland vs Yankees 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Guardians using the moneyline The New York Yankees dominated the Cleveland Guardians during the regular season winning five of six meetings, but all six games took place in the first half of the season when the Yankees dominated everyone building a 15.5 game lead in the AL East standings on July 8. The Yankees had the 17th best record of the 32 teams with a 38-40 record from July 9. The Guardians had the second-best record in MLB since July 9 with an outstanding 55-29 record. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge masked many of the fundamental flaws his team possessed, but in the playoffs those weaknesses are revealed. MLB Betting and Money Percentages Currently, the Yankees are getting the bulk of the public betting interest with 67% of the tickets bet on the Yankees. However, those Yankees bets only account for 24% of the money bet reflecting that the ‘sharps’ (large bettors) are on the Guardians. The 43% difference between ticket and money percentages is by far the highest on the board with the other three games all less than 10% differentials. Situational Trends and Angles · The Guardians are 29-15 making 14 units on the moneyline when facing an AL opponent allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game and is batting .255 or lower in games played in the second half of this season. o The under in this situation has earned a 27-15-2 record good for 64% winning Under bets. · The Guardians are 40-19 making 21 units on the moneyline when facing a team that is averaging .6 or fewer errors per game in games played in the second half of this season. |
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10-07-22 | Padres +137 v. Mets | Top | 7-1 | Win | 137 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
San Diego vs NY Mets 4% 8-Unit Bet on the Padres using the moneyline Betting on road underdogs between +125 and +175 coming off a loss to a divisional rival priced as a favorite, starting a pitcher that walked no more than a single batter in each of his last two starts has earned 73-62 record for 54% averaging a +142 wager and earning a 30% ROI since the 2004 season. If it is the first game a series in the regular and playoff seasons, these dogs have gone 45-33 avg a +145 wager and a 40% ROI. |
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10-07-22 | Phillies +100 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
Phillies vs Cardinals With the Phillies second ace Aaron Nola in top form and scheduled to pitch Game 2, the Cardinals must win Game 1 and defeat Zack Wheeler. The Cardinals were the last team in the playoffs to name their Game 1 starter and surprisingly they elected to go with left-hander Jose Quintana. The Phillies went 28-18 for 61% wins and 13-7 for 65% since the all-star break when facing a left-handed starter ranking 6th best in MLB. After eight MLB seasons, Wheeler, will make his first career playoff start today. Since joining the Phillies to start the 2020 season, Wheeler has earned a 30-19 record in 69 starts and has posted an ERA of 2.92 or lower in each of those seasons and finished second in last season's Cy Young Award voting. The one fundamental fact that I like most about the Phillies is that they rank best in the NL with 20.1% of their hits, including home runs, hit to the opposite field. The Phillies will be successful against Quintana by going with the pitch and hitting to all parts of the field, especially with men on base. Last, the Phillies made it to the playoffs while playing in the NL East division that had two teams, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, win 101 games. The Cardinals played in the NL Central that had two teams, the Cincinnati Reds, and Pittsburgh Pirates each lose 100 games. The NL East had a 413-377 record while the NL Central posted a weak 377-433 record, which was the worst divisional record this season. Phillies are 9-1 making 11 units in road games and coming two games in which they were outhit by 7 or more. |
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09-14-22 | Dodgers -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Dodgers using the money line Dodgers are scoring an average of 5.4 RPG on the season, 6.6 RPG over their last seven games, and the bullpen has been popwerful sporting a 1.40 ERA and a .983 WHIP over their last seven games. The Snakes are scoring 4.4 RPG on the season and 4.4 RPG over their last seven games with a bullpen in shambles sporting a horrid 8.06 ERA and a 1.925 EWHIP over their last seven games. Snakes skipper Lovullo is 40-94 losing 55 units on the money line after a game scoring no more than single run. |
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09-13-22 | Dodgers -190 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Dodgers using the money line Betting on all favorites in a NL matchup with a moneyline between –175 and –250 starting a strong pitcher [posting an ERA of 3.75 or lower for the season and is a team that is batting .255 to .270 for the season and is facing a very good starter posting an ERA of 3.00 or lower for the season has produced a 32-8 record averaging a –194 moneyline bet and producing a 33% ROI since the start of the 2016 season. |
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09-01-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +120 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 120 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Arizona 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks using the money line Brewers are 8-15 losing 21 units when facing a NL team that is batting .245 or lower in games played in the second half of this season. Diamondbacks are 22-10 making 16 units in home games when facing a NL foe with an OBP of .315 in the second half of each of the past two seasons. Arizona is 9-2 making 8.7 units following a game that had a combined score of 17 runs over the past three seasons. |
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08-31-22 | Red Sox +112 v. Twins | Top | 6-5 | Win | 112 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Boston vs Minnesota 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the money line. The Red Sox will have Michael Wacha on the hill and he is 10-3 making 7.7 units on the moneyline in games pricing his team between a –125 favorite and +125 underdog. Twins are 20-30 losing 17 units on the moneyline after playing five or more consecutive home games spanning the past two seasons. Twins skipper Baldelli is 14-20 losing 17 units on the moneyline following a five-game stretch in which his bullpen had an ERA of 2.00 or lower. |
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08-31-22 | Dodgers +150 v. Mets | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs NY Mets I am betting the Dodgers on the moneyline s a 4% 8-Unit bets bet Wednesday The Dodgers are 38-9 making 21 units on the moneyline when facing a team that averages seven or more strikeouts per game in the second half of this season. The Dodgers starter Anderson is 10-2 making 11 units on the moneyline when facing a team that has outscored their opponents by .5 or more runs-per-game in starts made over the last two seasons. Anderson is 18-5 making 14 units on the moneyline following a start in which he allowed no more than one earned run in starts made over the past two seasons. |
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08-31-22 | A's -105 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Oakland A’s vs Washington Nationals 4% bets bet on the A’s using the money line Betting on AL road teams that are starting a pitcher with a season-to-date ERA between 4.70 and 5.70, that are taking on a host, who is batting no better than .250 for the season and with the game being not the first or last game of the series has earned an outstanding 29-11 record good for 73% winning bets averaging a +120-underdog bet and producing a 62% ROI spanning the last 25 seasons and is a perfect 4-0 over the past three seasons. |
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08-25-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs +102 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
St. Louis vs Chicago 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chicago Cubs using the moneyline. Betting on teams lined between a –125 favorite and a +125 underdog that are coming off an upset win over a divisional foe by six or more runs has produced a 52-26 record averaging a 110-dog bet producing a 37% ROI over the last five seasons. If the previous win had our team priced as a 135 or greater underdog the record soars to 25-11 averaging a 107 wager and producing a highly profitable 45% ROI over the last five seasons. Bet the Cubs. |
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08-19-22 | Mets v. Phillies -117 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -117 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies These NL East divisional rivals begin a four-game series that potentially determine their playoff fates. Betting on home teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG following a game in which they were shutout has earned an outstanding 100-41 record for 71% winning bets and producing a 26.4% ROI over the last five seasons. Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and if not for the remarkable season that Sandy Alcantara has put in, would be a contender for the Cy Young award. His season-to-date stats are among the best and he has walked the fewest batters per start in the Majors. His strikeout to walk ratio ranks tops in MLB. |
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08-05-22 | Yankees v. Cardinals +137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 137 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals 5% MAX 10-UNIT best bet on the St. Louis Cardinals using the money line Ok, so just a reminder not to extend the amount bet on this 5% MAX Best Bet, especially on the reason that I am 9-0 in MLB last 12 months with these special situations. The Cardinals are off a divisional sweep of the Chicago Cubs and won both ends of the double-header played yesterday. Teams off a three-game divisional sweep and now playing in an inter-league game against an opponent with more wins on the season they have earned has produced a 23-13 record averaging a 117-underdog wager resulting in a highly profitable 38% ROI over the last 18 seasons, 19-10 record for 65.5% wins averaging a 118-money line wager and producing a remarkable 43.3% ROI over the last 10 seasons. Cardinals are 62-41 making 23 units when taking on a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game in the second half of each of the last two seasons. The Yankees are 3-10 losing 13 units following four or more consecutive OVER results in games played over the last two seasons. Cardinals are 25-14 when the total has been lined at 8 or 8.5 runs this season. |
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07-21-22 | Giants v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
National League Best Bet Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants The all-star break is completed, and MLB looks to resume their great season Thursday. One of the key matchups features the NL West rivals Giants host the Dodgers, who have the best record in the NL at 60-30 and lead the Giants by 12.5 games in the divisional race. The Giants are only a ½-game out for one of the three Wild Card berths so this series is moumentally important for them to win. The Trends and Angles The following situational trends and angle support a betting opportunity on the Dodgers. The Giants are 0-7 when playing on Thursdays this season. The Giants are 7-12 after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dodgers are 46-11 in home games when on a two or more-game win streak over the past two seasons. I am going to the window betting the Dodgers using the moneyline as an 8-Unit Bet offered at -140 at BetMGM. |
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07-03-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -190 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
San Diego vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 4% best bet on the Dodgers on the money line Kershaw has the ball for the Dodgers, and he was roughed up in his last start allowing six earned runs on nine hits including two home runs. The last time he yielded 6+ earned runs in a start was on June 19 of the 2017 season when he allowed six earned runs to the New York Mets. In his next start against the Rockies, the Dodgers won, with Kershaw completing six innings, allowing zero earned runs, 1 walk, and 8 strikeouts. I expect a similar bounce back from him today. In home games at Dodgers Stadium, Kershaw is 100-40 in 197 starts with an incredible 2.22 ERA and 1,472 strikeouts. Betting on favorites that are a strong offensive team scoring an average of 5.0 or more RPG on the season, has allowed two or fewer runs in back-to-back games, and facing a NL starting pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or better has produced an exceptional 56-26 record for 68% winning bets since 2004. If our favorite is playing at home, the record gets even better with a 38-11 record for 78% winning bets and a highly profitable 25% ROI. |
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07-03-22 | Yankees -165 v. Guardians | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -165 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians 1:40 PM EDT, July 3, 2022 4% best bet on the New York Yankees on the money line The Yankees scored four runs in each of two innings and had a total of four multiple run innings in yesterday’s 13-4 win over the Guardians. Road teams that have outscored their opponents by at least 100 or more runs, had four or more multiple run innings in their previous game and the host is priced as a 100 to 170 underdog has earned a 33-17 record for 66% winners since 2004 and if the game was played in July, the record is a perfect 11-0! The Guardians McKenzie is on the hill, and he has been rocked for 6 and 7 earned runs in his last two starts. Since 2004, teams playing in July that are scoring 4.75 or more RPG and facing a starter that allowed 6 or more earned runs in each of his last two starts are 15-4 for 79% winning bets. |
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07-02-22 | Rangers +120 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 120 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Texas Rangers vs New York Mets 4:10 PM EST, July 2, 2022 4% best bet on the Rangers using the money line and boxed with Perez and Williams starting for the Rangers and Mets respectively. Here is a strong situational betting angle that I really like and has been a largely consistent money maker over many seasons. Bet on road teams when the total is 8.5 or 9 runs, have lost between 1 and 3 of their previous games, had no multiple run innings in their previous loss, and facing a foe that has a win percentage of 60% or higher on the season, and our road team is allowing an average of 1.75 or fewer runs per game by the bullpen (earned and unearned) This set of game parameters has earned a 38-34 record, averaging a +130 underdog bet and producing a 26% ROI. |
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07-02-22 | Angels +141 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Houston Astros 4:10 EDT, July 2, 2022 4% best bet on the LA Angels using the money line Here is another big money maker that applied to this matchup and supports the bet on the Angels, who lost 8-1 to the Astros Friday. Bet on teams when the total is between 8 and 9 runs in a divisional matchup, coming off a game with no multiple run innings, is on a 1 to 3-game losing streak, playing a foe that has won 60% or more of their games, and our team’s bullpen is allowing 2 or fewer runs per game has earned a 67-50 record averaging a +115 dog wager and a very good 21% ROI over the last five seasons. Angels are 23-13 in road games and having batted .225 or worse over their last five games in games played over the last two seasons. |
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07-01-22 | Rangers +176 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Rangers vs Mets 7:10 EDT, July 1, 2022 4% Best bet on the Texas Rangers on the money line Both teams had off Thursday to end the month of June. The New York Mets went 13-12 and saw their NL East Division lead of 11 games shrink to just 3 games over the Atlanta Braves entering July. The Braves went 21-6 and only the New York Yankees were better with a 22-6 record in June. The Mets are not playing consistently for weeks now and they cannot overlook a Texas Rangers squad looking to get back to .500 and be a contender for the Al Wild Card berths. The Mets are in good shape, though, knowing that they will be getting Max Scherzer back and then Jacob DeGrom returns most likely in August. They are the two aces of the pitching staff and it only stands to reason that the Mets will win a lot more games with them in the rotation.
· The Rangers are 25-17 when facing a starting pitcher that allows and average of 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season. · The Rangers are 45-25 when facing a NL starting pitcher with a 1.15 or better WHIP spanning the last 25 seasons. · The Rangers are an impressive 16-7 as underdog between +125 and +175 producing an outstanding 48% ROI this season. |
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07-01-22 | Brewers v. Pirates +185 | Top | 19-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Pittsburgh 7:10 EDT, July 1, 2022 4% best bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the money line Pirates are 43-37 making 27 units following game in which they hit four or more home runs. Betting on home underdogs that are scoring an average of 3.8 RPG, after back-to-back games allowing at least seven runs in each, and facing an opponent with a solid bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has produced a 23-8 record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. It has averaged a +135 underdog wager. |
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06-27-22 | Twins v. Guardians +114 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Cleveland 7:10 EDT, June 27 4% best bet on the Cleveland Guardians using the money line Betting on home teams that are facing a foe that has had two straight games in which they had Zero home runs and is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or lower spanning his last five starts has produced a 68-34 record good for 67% winning bets and making the $100 bettor a $3900 profit over the last five seasons. Bet the Cleveland Guardians as a 4% best bet |
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06-27-22 | A's +253 v. Yankees | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Oakland vs NY Yankees 7:05 EDT, June 27, 2022 4% best bet on the Oakland Athletics using the money line Consider splitting this wager to be a 2.75% amount on the run line and a 1.25% on the money line for a more conservative combination wager. I like the money line and is based on season-long results in betting these massive dogs and knowing they will make us money over the course of a season. Oakland will start Blackburn, who is 6-0 in road games when facing a team that strikeouts an average of 7 or more times per game this season. The Yankees start left-hander Montgomery, who is 6-10 when facing a foe that is being outscored by at least 0.5 RPG in games played over the last two seasons. |
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06-26-22 | A's +151 v. Royals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 151 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Oakland vs KC 2:10 EDT 4% best bet on the Oakland A’s using the money line A’s are 26-12 making 14 units when facing a struggling bullpen posting an ERA of 4.70 or higher on the season over the last two seasons. Royals are a horrid 15-32 when facing a starting pitcher that has lost 80% or more of their decisions on the season. They are also just 10-21 losing 20 units when priced as a favorite between -125 and -175 over the last two seasons. |
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06-26-22 | Astros +160 v. Yankees | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Houston vs Yankees 1:35 EDT, June 26, 2022 4% Best Bet on the Houston Astros on the money line The Yankees were no hit Saturday and we were on the Astros +150, which was quite nice to see. The Yankees have scored a total of one run over their last two games and if not for the bottom of the ninth heroics in Game-1, they would be in danger of getting swept by the Astros at home. This is all part of my statements made on the Full Count MLB show where I said the Yankees were ripe for regression. They are simply not DUE to score a monster number of runs in this series final because they scored just 1 run in their last two games. They could certainly, and if they do, it is not because they scored just 1 run or were not hit in their last game. Home teams that are 20 games over .500, that scored 1 or zero runs in each of their last two games, playing in the last game of a series are just 13-15 averaging a -160 favorite and producing a -20% ROI. So, the fade is in full force again for this series finale on the Astros. |
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06-25-22 | Mets v. Marlins +132 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Mets vs Marlins 4:10 EDT 4% best on the Marlins on the money line Betting on home underdogs of +125 to +175 starting a pitcher that averages fewer than 5 innings per start and facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 on the season has earned an outstanding 50-28 record averaging a +141 underdog bet over the last 25 seasons and is 19-9 over the last five seasons. The Mets start Bassitt and he has lost three of his last four starts and has posted a 4.39 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP over his last three starts. He just lost 6-2 to the Marlins June 19 in his last start at Citi Field. The Marlins pen is doing great recently with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP over their last 7 games. |
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06-25-22 | Pirates +158 v. Rays | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay 1:10 EDT, June 25 4% best bet on the Pirates using the money line Betting on NL underdogs of 125 to 175 with a slugging percentage of .400 or lower, starting a pitcher with a solid WHIP between 1.35 and 1.45 on the season and facing an elite AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or lower on the season has earned an outstanding 40-25 record averaging a +150 underdog bet over the last 25 seasons. JT Brubaker starts for the Pirates and he is top form posting a 2.45 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP over his last three starts. We are getting paid to assume the risk of this losing record underdog. |
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06-25-22 | Astros +152 v. Yankees | Top | 3-0 | Win | 152 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Houston vs NY Yankees 1:05 EDT, June 25, 2022 4% best bet on the Astros using the money line This system has earned a 48-31 record good for 61% winning bets averaging a +145 wager over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs of 125 to 175 facing a foe with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games and with a strong bullpen that has posted a 2.00 or lower ERA over their last five games. Regression does happen even to the best teams in MLB. Baker is 12-2 when facing a foe with a starting pitcher that has won 80% or more of their decisions and 30-12 when facing AL starter with an ERA of 3.40 or lower. |
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06-21-22 | Mariners v. A's +132 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Seattle vs Oakland 9:40 EDT, June 21, 2022 Oakland is a terrible team, period, but even the worst teams in baseball do not lose every game. Seattle is a struggling team and I do not see why in the world they are favored – even against the A’s – in this matchup. They have lost three straight and nine of their last 13 games. They are batting just .183 and scoring 2.3 RPG over their last seven games. The one thing that Oakland does well is relief pitching as that unit has posted a 2.22 ERA with a 1.233 WHIP over their last seven games. James Kaprielian will start for the A’s and is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP in nine starts this season. He is averaging 4.6 innings per start and note that Seattle is 1-12 losing 14 units when facing a starter that averages less than five innings per start in games played this season. I like the Oakland A’s as a 4% bets bet on the money line. |
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06-21-22 | Giants v. Braves -153 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Atlanta 7:20 EDT, June 21, 2022 This is a 4% best bet on the Atlanta Braves using the money line. This bet is supported by one of my more than 4,000 betting algorithms and systems that has earned a 42-11 record for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams priced as a favorite that has a solid bullpen posting a season-to-date ERA of 3.50 or lower on the season and is now facing a solid offensive team scoring an average of 4.7 RPG and has batted no better than .220 over their last 10 games. Braves Strider is on the hill and he throws 98 to 100 MPH with heavy and late breaking action generating a ton of ground ball outs, especially against launch angle-happy batters like the Giants lineup. I also like betting OVER 6.5 strikeouts -135 for a 0.5 amount. |
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06-20-22 | Royals v. Angels -183 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Kansas City vs LA Angels 9:38 EDT, June 20, 2022 4% best bet on the Angels The Angels are the most undervalued teams in the marketplace right now. That does Not mean they will win every game, but it does me that my predictive models are expecting the Angels to win more than lose with a projection of 13 or more wins over their next 20 games. Trout is on fire like he always is June and despite batting 0.255 in June, his OPS is an amazing 1.076. He has hit five home runs in the last five games. The rest of the lineup is doing better as a result his performances of late and the Angels are not dependent on Trout to win the games for them. Syndergaard gets the nod for the Angels and is 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. Left-hander Kris Bubic (0-4, 8.36) will make his ninth start of the year for the Royals and has faced the Angels once, getting tagged for the loss in a game last season when he gave up six runs in four innings. I see more of the same in this matchup for Bubic. |
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06-18-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -129 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays 3:07 EDT, June 17, 2022 4% best bet on the Blue Jays Tremendous pitching matchup with Taillon (7-1, 2.93 ERA) on the hill for the Yankees going against the Blue Jays Manoah (8-1, 1.67). Yankees are scorching hot and are 40-10 since April 22 and is the first time they have won 40+ games over a 50-game span since 1998. The last MLB team to win at least 40 of 50 games was the Cleveland Guardians in 2017, who went 42-8. Yankees are just 38-40 losing 25 units in day games over the last three seasons. Manoah is 18-3 (team record) making 15 units in games with a total between 8.5 and 10 runs over the last two seasons. |
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06-18-22 | Braves -160 v. Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Chicago Cubs 2:20 EDT, June 18, 2022 4% best bet on the Braves on the money line I like a combination wager of betting a 3% best bet on the money line and then a 1% best bet on the run line. Either strategy is valid, and this play will be graded on the money line. Atlanta had its’ 14-game win streak snapped in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs Friday and had the bases loaded with two outs in the top of the ninth inning. A loss is a loss. A strong team remains a strong team even after a shutout loss. Teams that have won 12 of their last 15 games, coming off a shutout loss, and now favored by -175 or more on the money line have gone 15-3 for 79% winners and 11-5 on the run line for 30% ROI and 69% winners going back to the 2004 season. Plus, 8-0 and 6-2 on the Run Line since 2016. |
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06-17-22 | Rangers +105 v. Tigers | Top | 7-0 | Win | 105 | 2 h 34 m | Show |
Texas vs Detroit 7:10 EDT, June 17, 2022 4% bets bet on the Texas Rangers on the money line Rangers are an outstanding 14-9 making 12.5 units when facing an AL SP that has an ERA under 3.00 in games played over the last two seasons. Detroit is a miserable 3-11 in home games taking on a foe that averages 3 or fewer walks per game this season. Betting on AL underdogs starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.75 to 5.75 and facing a foe that has posted a .310 OBP over his last 20 games and scoring 4.2 or fewer RPG has earned a 36-18 record for 67% winners and has averaged a very descent +135 underdog bet. |
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06-17-22 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
St. Louis vs Boston 7:10 EDT, June 17, 2022 4% best bet on the Boston Red Sox on the money line Bet on teams in a game lined between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog that is taking on an opponent that is coming off a loss to a divisional rival and was priced as a -150 or greater favorite and is a matchup of winning record teams has produced a 42-26 record good for 62% winners and has produced a 24.3% ROI over the last five seasons. |
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06-09-22 | Diamondbacks +130 v. Reds | Top | 5-4 | Win | 130 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
Arizona vs Cincinnati 12:35 PM EST, June 9, 2022 4% best bet on the money line with the Arizona Diamondbacks The following betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-19 record good for 72% winning bets over the last five seasons for a profit-producing 29.31% ROI spanning the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs that have lost five or six of their last seven games, has won 45 to 49.9% of their games on the season (one-game under 0.500) and facing a team with a losing record. This points solidly to backing the Diamondbacks in this early after game Thursday. |
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10-19-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -175 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
Atlanta vs LA Dodgers Game-3 NLCS 5:08 PM EST, October 19, 2021 4% Best Bet on the LA Dodgers 2% Best Bet UNDER 7.5 runs The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the hill and he has dominated the Braves sporting a 3-0 record in 6 career starts, 3.06 ERA, and a 0.934 WHIP. In his only previous start against the Braves this season he dominated allowing two earned runs over seven innings pitched including five Ks. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.87 ERA and a 1.022 WHIP, a 2-1 team record, including 20 Ks over 15.2 innings of work. In day starts, his team and personal record is 5-1 sporting a 2.45 ERA and a 1.242 WHIP including 34 Ks over 33 innings of work. In home starts he is 11-2 and the Dodgers 14-6 (blown saves) with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.966 including 134 Ks spanning 127.3 innings of work. Teams that lose the first two games of a series and now installed as home favorites of -150 or more, the UNDER is 7-3 for 70%. Buehler is 32-16 UNDER in home games pitching against teams that average 7 or more strikeouts per game for his career. From the predictive side of things, my models, predict that the Dodgers will score first. Note that teams starting a pitcher, who has not lost to the opponent in any previous matchup and installed as -170 favorites or greater, are 5-1 SU. If the starter has 3 or more matchup wins and zero matchup losses, that home team, regardless of favorite or underdog, is 5-0. Player prop bets for 0.75 units: Buehler will have more than 5.5 strikeouts getting +100 money at Draft Kings. 1.0 units on Dodgers -0.5 runs -110 first five innings 0.25 that Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases paying -105 money at DraftKings 0.25 units that one of the teams will not score +400. Obviously, I think that is possible for the Braves not to score. |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals +210 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
St. Louis vs LA Dodgers Cardinals are an outstanding 23-13 when playing against a winning record team during the second half of this season. Wainwright is 17-4 when facing a NL team that is batting no better than 0.245 on the season and 11-1 in the second half of this season. Betting against home favorites with a money line between -175 and -250 with a winning record on the season and is on a 6 or more-game win streak has earned a 28-28 record for 50% winning bets over the last five seasons. There is more, of course. The average wager has been a +197 DOG wager and has made the Dime bettor a $24,500 profit betting on these 56 games. Take the St. Louis Cardinals using the money line. |
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09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox +108 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Boston 7:10 PM EST, September 24, 2021 4% (4-Unit) Best bet on the Red Sox using the money line The Yankees playoff aspirations or the lack of them can be pointed to their poor record against the divisional opponents. Yankees are just 30-37 losing 27 units facing an AL East foe this season. Boston is 35-17 after three or more home games this season. Eovaldi has been exceptional in his last three starts against the Yankees allowing no more than two earned runs in each start. Plus, over 12 starts against the Yankees, he has amassed a 2.59 ERA and a 0.973 WHIP. Bet the Red Sox |
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09-23-21 | Astros -157 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -157 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Houston vs LA Angels 9:38 PM EST Thursday, September 23, 2021 4% Best Bet on the Houston Astros using the money line. The Angels have been a money-burning 9-22 losing 11.2 units-per-unit bet against the money line in home games when facing an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better in games played this season. They are also 22-41 in home games facing a RH starting pitcher this season. Houston skipper Baker is 27-10 when facing a SP sporting a solid ERA of 3.70 or lower in games played this season. Betting on any team with a very good starter with an ERA |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -154 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
CWS vs Oakland 9:40 PM EST, Wednesday, September 8, 2021 4-Unit Best Bet on Oakland using the money line Betting on home teams with an OBP of not better than 0.300 over their last 15 games, who is facing a SP that is struggling with a 6.50 or worse ERA over his last 10 starts has earned an outstanding 40-18 record good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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09-08-21 | Tigers +110 v. Pirates | Top | 5-1 | Win | 110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Detroit vs Pittsburgh 6:35 PM EST, Wednesday, September 8, 2021 4-UNIT Best Bet on Detroit using the money line Bet on any AL team in an interleague matchup that sports an ugly 0.310 OBP, is starting a pitcher with adequate rest of at least 5 days, and facing a very poor SP that sports a 1.65 or higher WHIP on the season. This set of parameters has earned a 31-7 record for 81% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 10-0 over the last five seasons. |
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08-29-21 | Yankees v. A's +132 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 132 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Oakland Athletics 7:30 PM EST, Sunday, August 29, 2021 5-UNIT Best Bet on the Oakland A’s on the money line Betting on home teams that are batting 0.215 or worse over their last 10 games and starting a pitcher, who did not issue a single walk in his last start are 102-60 for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. This game is on the west coast starting at 4:30 PM Est and the Yankees are 19-28 in day games this season losing 20 units per unit wagered. They are 13-23 in road games having won four of their last five games in games played over the last two seasons. Oakland is a solid and highly profitable 75-36 when facing a left-handed starter over the last three seasons. Paul Blackburn is being evaluated by the marketplace as an average replacement arm, but his underlying metrics (projected FIP of 4.40 to 4.80) are significantly better than the market. Oakland has nine right-handed or switch-hitting bats on the roster, though Matt Olson, who has always crushed same-sided pitching can frustrate any left-handed starter will certainly be in every lineup. So, look for 8 RH bats and Olson tonight. The A’s are a solid104 wRC+ against lefties ranking 6th in MLB in 2021 after ranking fourth in 2019 (116 wRC+) and third in 2018 (107 wRC+). So, there is tremendous value to betting against the public sentiment that is overwhelmingly bullish for the Yankees in every game they now play. |