Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs +3.5 | Top | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Lakers/Mavericks 7:40: This line moved from Dallas -1' at open to Dallas +4' at 2:00pm ET. Dallas has several contributors out, most likely Irving (heel bruise) and Grant Williams (knee). And I wouldn't count on Hardaway Jr. (back) playing. Nevertheless, we'll take the points with the shorthanded Mavericks. Doncic has a tendency to make his teammates better; for example, Lively II picked up his game substantially vs Memphis yesterday. Lakers are coming off winning the In-Season-Tournament. James and Davis expended their energy reserve on Saturday. Davis is notorious for his fall off following big games. Lakers just 5-7 in non-tournament games this season. And their 3-point shooting was atrocious vs Pacers hitting 2 of 13. They relied on energy and defensive intensity to win on Saturday; tonight, I see neither of those occurring. Dallas has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we'll take the points here. |
|||||||
05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
Heat/Celtics 8:30: Celtics' Tatum was unstoppable Sunday in Game 7; however, there has been a level of inconsistency from Tatum and Boston this year. With the Celtics coming off that emotional Game 7 win, look for well rested Miami to give the Celtics trouble in Boston. Heat are 13-5 ATS in Boston. And now that post-season superstar Butler had a few days extra to rest his injured ankle, look for him to shine. Miami the call. |
|||||||
05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
05-07-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Nuggets/Suns 8:00: Suns Booker shot the lights out Friday night and Durant practically lived at the free throw line. Ayton was a dud and the other surrounding cast was mediocre. Nuggets came back strong from a double-digit halftime deficit. They're getting consistent outstanding production from Jokic and his sidekick - Murray - finds ways to pick up his game. Porter Jr. playing well. Other supporting cast members Gordon and Caldwell-Pope, who had been playing well prior to Friday, should be the difference makers tonight. HC Malone should make the right defensive adjustment on Booker. Denver the call. |
|||||||
04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
Bucks/Heat 7:30: Bucks were unstoppable from the perimeter on Wednesday with 25 three pointers. And Lopez had a monster game. I've seen this old dance before in the playoffs and Milwaukee came out flat as a follow up. I anticipate Giannis playing as the line dictates. Heat won't back down on this floor. They're a proud defensive team (#2 in allowing points) and will be prepared protecting their home floor. Losing Herro is a tough loss but Spoelstra has the "next man up" mentality and Robinson, Strus and Oladipo or Vincent going to have to step up their game when called upon. Need Jimmy Butler to turn it up a notch down the stretch while veteran Kevin Love needs to contribute. Sure, Lopez was unstoppable Wednesday but he's been inconsistent off monster games his entire career. Adebayo has pride and should show up big today. Take the points. |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Bucks/Celtics 3:30: Visiting team in this series is 5-1 ATS. Tatum and Smart carried the Celtics to victory in Game 6. Look for the heart of a champion to emerge from the Bucks tonight. Giannis remains a consistent force in the playoffs and needs a little more help. Portis and Connaughton have stepped up their game in the void of Middleton (out). Need Lopez and Allen to contribute. Look for Budenholzer to make the right adjustments here. Bucks 7-2-1 ATS off a SU loss. Milwaukee the call. |
|||||||
05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Mavericks have been a strong road team against winning home teams for a long stretch. They're 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 road tilts vs a team with a home winning % above .600. And they're 36-15 ATS off a SU loss. Doncic, like always, is on his game. He'll need Brunson and Dinwiddie to give him offensive support. We'll bet on that to happen. Phoenix just 3-7-1 ATS on 1 day rest. Paul, after back-to-back strong games, overdue to gas out tonight. Edge to Dallas. |
|||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Clippers/T-Wolves 9:30: Clippers finished strong down the stretch on a 5-0 / 4-1 ATS run. Clippers have solid team chemistry and a stable bench under playoff strong HC Lue. And now that Paul George and Norman Powell (foot) are healthy, they're dangerous. And they're equipped with a better defense than their counterpart. Sure, T-Wolves can light up the net at home (#1 offense in NBA), but question big game ability. Clippers equipped with big-game players including Reggie Jackson, George. And Zubac usually steps up his game in post-season. We'll grab the Clippers to deliver in this play-in. |
|||||||
06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +3.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
76ers/Hawks 7:35: Sixers up 2-1 but don't count out Atlanta yet. McMillan has been around the NBA for a while and he does a nice job with defensive adjustments while letting his ballers play loose on the offensive end. Capela surely can't handle Embiid but Danny Green's absence hurts their depth. I don't see Kurkmaz or Thybulle scorching Atlanta again. The Hawks should tighten the bolts on the defensive end while they seek to get back their touch from the perimeter; after all, they're perimeter game has progressively gone down from Game 1 of this series - from 43%, 37% and just %26 in Game 3 at home. Atlanta's Trae Young is at his most dangerous penetrating with either a floater or kick out. Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Collins should step up. Atlanta is 50-23 ATS off a double-digit home loss at home and covered 5 of last 7 as a home dog. 76ers 0-5 ATS after scoring 125+ points and just 7-18-2 ATS on the road vs a home team with winning % above .600. Moreover, Atlanta has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series at home. Atlanta the call. |
|||||||
05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Lakers/Suns 10:05: The bulk of this Lakers' team has been here before. Last season, lost game 1 against the Blazers and proceeded to sweep. This Suns team is a bit more hungry and disciplined. I had the Suns in Game 1 and they delivered but will fade them here. Sunday, A.D. was outplayed by Ayton and the criticism is plentiful. Normally, a superstar doesn't have back-to-back bad games and I expect him to step up here to aid James. Lakers need more from Kuzma, and Schroder should step up his game. Lakers do have one of the top defenses in the NBA. That surely comes in handy down the stretch for stops. Lakers the call tonight. |
|||||||
05-23-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
Hawks/Knicks 7:05: Knicks' players bought into Thibodeau's defensive philosophy and the result paid dividends with the Knicks locking in the #4 seed as a host in the playoffs. Atlanta came on strong too after a mid-season coaching change. McMillan's done a great job guiding Atlanta to the playoffs after a rough start under the departed Lloyd. However, the #1 defensive team in the NBA has proven they can make stops but can run the floor and run an efficient half court offense. Randall has been amazing, Barrett has been big time support, and the Derrick Rose resurgence has been amazing. Knicks control a 6-0-1 ATS mark in this series and should deliver at MSG. |
|||||||
11-13-19 | Clippers +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Clippers/Rockets 7:35: Leonard not satisfied with an NBA Championship as he's come out of the gate strong along with his mates. Already taking out the Lakers and Raptors, Clippers eyeing another NBA heavyweight and should dispatch them. Houston 0-4 ATS vs teams above .600 while Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the same role; as a matter of fact, Houston is 0-4 ATS vs winning teams - period! Clippers have gone 4-1 ATS in Houston and should deliver. |
|||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Nuggets/Spurs 8:05: Spurs with their backs against the wall should rise to the occasion. Spurs unlikely to lose three straight and should make the needed adjustments. DeRozan should stay out of foul trouble here and Derrick White should break out of his slump. And Popovich should have his guys clog lanes better to stop dribble penetration from Murray and keep big bods on Jokic. Spurs a solid 6-3 ATS in this favorite price role. |
|||||||
05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Houston/Golden State 8:05: Houston got over the post season jitters with a strong performance in Game 2. They go to Golden State knowing they've played well there this season (10/17/17 122-121 outright win). Houston looking to win back home court advantage and #1 seeds coming off home win as a 6+ point road dog sports a sweet 13-4 ATS mark. Sure Curry and company will most likely be back on their perimeter game; however, Warriors a home concern in their last 11 at Oracle Arena achieved a money burning 3-8 ATS. Value with Houston here. |
|||||||
05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 101 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Philadelphia/Boston 8:00: Boston was in control of Game 4 at Philadelphia when the referees started making ticky-tacky foul calls against the Celtics; moreover, technical fouls on Rozier and Brown set off mild mannered coach Stevens - who got a rare technical; consequently, 76ers captured the momentum and delivered behind an enthusiastic crowd. Tonight, I'll look for Boston to keep composure and deliver behind their super enthusiastic crowd. Boston is 8-1 ATS following a 10+ point loss and won and covered 11 of their last 12 home games. 76ers' McConnell played above and beyond his normal play on Monday but we'll look for him to come back down to earth tonight at the ever tough Boston venue TD Garden. I believe J.J.Reddick can light it up on the road in the playoffs but still not sold on Embiid and Simmons in crunch time. They're still not ready for prime time in clutch situations. Boston edge in coaching and Horford. Moreover, underrated Tatum, Rozier and Brown still can carry this group to the NBA Finals. Boston closes it out tonight. |
|||||||
04-25-18 | Pacers +6 v. Cavs | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
Pacers/Cavaliers 7:05: Pacers competitive in this series and 6-0 ATS off a SU loss. They're getting good work out of a variety of players for all starters in G4 were in double-digits. Stephenson and Sabonis stepped up their game as well. Tonight, we need Bogdanovic and Oladipo to get back their prime-time performance play. Cavaliers have been good at correcting defensive flaws after the fact and Indiana hasn't answered back. I believe the Pacers can be the ones pushing the right buttons tonight; after all, they've covered 5 of the last 7 in this series, they're not intimidated, and have a solid team corps that can outsmart some of Cleveland's young guns who stepped up in G4 like Nance Jr. and Clarkson. And I don't expect streaky Korver to come out smoking hot again. Cleveland a money burning 16-36-1 ATS at home and 2-7 ATS on 2 days rest. Pacers should keep it tight. |