Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 ET

Game# 45-46

Play On: Denver -135 (10*)

Denver is coming off a disappointing 111-108 home loss in Game 2. However, the Nuggets are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and when coming off a SU loss and outscored their opponents by 12.7 points per game. Furthermore, since the start of last season, Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS at Miami and won by an average of 13.4 points per game.

Since the 2017 NBA Postseason, any Game 3 away favorite of -1.5 or greater or less like Denver will be tonight, and they’re coming off a home favorite of 7.0 or greater upset loss, resulted in those Game 3 away favorites going 7-0 SU. The average margin of victory during those 7 games came by a decisive margin of 16.4 points per game.

Give me the Denver Nuggets as a money line wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Celtics -150 (10*)

The Celtics have a strange home/away dichotomy during this year and last year’s Playoffs. Specifically speaking, they’ve gone 10-11 SU at home during that stretch and 12-6 SU during away games. Furthermore, if they were coming off a loss they improved to 7-1 SU&ATS on the road.

The Celtics are still a favorite after losing the first games of the series at home. Even despite the fact that Miami has won their last 6 at home this postseason. The sportsbooks are giving us the winner here with the road favorite. Especially when considering Miami is on a current 3-game win streak, and those previous 2 losses by the Celtics came as a point-spread favorite of 8.0 points or greater.

NBA money line favorites like Boston who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a favorite of 7.0 or more, versus an opponent like Miami who is coming off wins in their previous 2 games in which they were an underdog on each occasion, resulted in those teams going 32-4 (89%) since the 1996-1997 season.

Give me the Boston Celtics on the money line.

Warriors @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Lakers -2.5 (10*)

Golden State will try to stave off elimination for a 2nd time in 3 days. Nevertheless, that Game 5 win came at home. The Warriors are a miserable 11-34 on the road this season and that includes 5-21 when facing opponents with a winning record. Additionally, Golden State is a miserable 1-10 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.0 or less.

The Lakers are coming off a 121-106 loss at Golden State in Game 5 and they squandered an opportunity to close out the defending world champions. However, recent NBA Playoffs betting history shows that teams like the Lakers in this exact situation have been exceptional good. NBA Playoff home favorites of 8.0 or less that have a 3-2 series and are coming off a Game 5 loss by 11 points or more, resulted in in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since the 2008 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the average margin of victory during those 7 contests came by a substantial 17.2 points per game.

Give me the Lakers minus points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Nuggets @ Suns 10:00 PM ET

Game# 555-556

Play On: Nuggets +2.5 (10*)

Phoenix is coming off a 118-102 loss at Denver in Game 5 and failed to cover as a 6.5-point underdog. As a result, they’re facing elimination tonight as they’re down 3-2 in the series. The Suns are an impressive 32-14 at home this season. However, they’ve gone just 4-4 SU at home following an away underdog ATS loss in their previous game. Furthermore, Phoenix is a miserable 2-8 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0 and they were coming off a SU loss in their previous game. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact scenario if they were coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The above numbers and results certainly don’t bode well for the Suns as a favorite in tonight’s game.

NBA Playoffs betting history supports #1 seed away underdogs like Denver who are attempting to close out a 7-game series. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed like Denver that’s an away underdog of 5.0 or less while attempting to close out a 7-game series, and they’re coming off a SU win in their previous game, resulted in those top seeded away underdogs going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since the 2005 postseason. Furthermore, that identical NBA Playoffs betting angle is a perfect 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 2010.

Give me the Denver Nuggets plus points.

Lakers @ Warriors 10:00 PM ET

Game# 551-552

Play On: Warriors -7.0 (10*)

The Lakers have seized control of this series after winning Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to take a commanding 3-1 lead. However, look for an inspired effort from the defending world champion Warriors on their home floor. Since the 2014 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is 5-1 SU&ATS when facing elimination and coming off a loss in the previous game. The Warriors have also gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite following losses in each of their last 2 contests and won by an average of 12.5 points per game.

Give me the Golden State Warriors minus points for a highest rated 10* Top Play.

Knicks @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET

Game# 529-530

Play On: Cavaliers -5.5 (10*)

We have a sizable home favorite that trails this playoff series 3-1 and has lost the last 2 games. Must be awfully tempting for many bettors to take the underdog in that spot. However, I’m going with a contrarian approach in this spot. We saw the teams down 3-1 in their series go 2-1 ATS as underdogs last night. Additionally, Atlanta won their game SU as a +13.5 underdog at Boston and Minnesota lost by just 2 as a 10.0-point dog at #1 seed Denver. Both those teams were on the road while the Cavaliers will be at home this evening where they’ve gone 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less immediately following 2 consecutive losses, and they won by a substantial average of 16.7 points per contest. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played. Nevertheless, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and outscored those 10 opponents by 16.6 points per game.

Give me the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points.

Bucks @ Heat 3:30 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Heat +5.0 (10*)

Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS at home versus Milwaukee, and the average victory margin came by a whopping 18.3 points per contest. Additionally, they held the Bucks to 97 points or fewer in all 4 of those wins. So, there’s no denying they won’t be lacking for confidence in this pivotal game of series that’s tied up at 1-1. Furthermore, they knocked off the Bucks in the series opener 130-117 at Milwaukee. The logic being this isn’t your typical #8 vs. #1 seed first round matchup where the underdog looks overwhelmed and passive.

The Bucks did make 25 three-point shots in their Game 2 home win. However, that was on the heels of going 11-45 (24.4%) during the series opener. Speaking of 3-point shooting, Miami has shot a red-hot 31-61 (51.4%) from 3-point territory in the first 2 games of this series. The Heat have shot 51.2% or better from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better in their last 4 and 8 of their previous 11 games.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.

Clippers @ Suns 10:00 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Suns -8.0 (10*)

Since the 1996 NBA Playoffs, the Clippers have gone a dismal 4-16 ATS on the road when leading a series. Additionally, this current line speaks volumes. Phoenix is a sizable favorite despite losing 3 in a row and they’re facing an opponent like the Clippers who have won 4 straight. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog in this spot. Furthermore, the Clippers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this season as an away underdog immediately following a game in which they won SU as an away underdog, and they were outscored by a substantial margin of 14.0 points per contest.

Phoenix is coming off a 115-110 home loss as a favorite of -7.5 in Game 1 of this series. NBA favorites like Phoenix who are playing with revenge stemming from a SU loss as a home favorite of 7.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a home favorite SU loss in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 39-10 ATS (79.6%) since the 2018-2019 season began. The average point-spread for those favorites was -6.8 and they outscored the underdogs by 13.8 points per game.

Give me the Phoenix Suns minus the points.

Chicago @ Miami 7:00 PM ET

Game# 569-570

Play On: Miami -5.5 (5*)

The good news for Bulls fans is they’re team has won 3 straight games. The bad news is Chicago hasn’t won 4 straight games all season. As a matter of fact, Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS this season immediately following 3 consecutive wins and they were outscored by a decisive 13.8 points per game.

Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday.  The Heat are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home following a loss in their previous contest. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS during their previous 3 in that exact role and with an average victory margin of 10.7 points per game.

Public bettors will be leaning heavily on the underdog in this matchup based on what they just witnessed earlier this week from both teams. Additionally, Chicago is 3-0 in their last 3 versus Miami this season, and that will sway them toward the underdog even further. Yet, the odds-makers remain undeterred on those recent results and opened Miami as a sizable favorite with all being considered.

Give me the Miami Heat as a point-spread favorite.

San Diego State vs. Connecticut 9:20 PM ET

Game# 711-712

Play On: Under 132.5 (10*)

The only flaw that UConn has displayed defensively during their 5 NCAA Tournament games is allowing opponents to have an average of 19 free throw attempts per game. If you even want to label that as a flaw. However, San Diego State has been terrible from the free throw line during their 5 NCAA Tournament game while converting on just 63.4% of their free throw attempts. Otherwise, the Huskies have held all 5 of their opponents to 38.8% or worse while giving up a mere 59.2 points per contest. UConn has covered all 5 games in the big Dance. The Huskies have played 8-1 to the under this season when not playing at home and coming off covering each of their previous 3 games.

San Diego State is a 7.5-point underdog at the time of this writing. The Aztecs have played 8-0 to the under since 12/17/2021 and there were a combined 125.1 points scored per game. San Diego State is coming off a thrilling 72-71 buzzer beating win over FAU in a game that went over the total of 132.0. That snapped a string of 12 consecutive games going under the total for the Aztecs. As a matter of fact, they haven’t gone over the total in 2 straight games since January 10th. Furthermore, The Aztecs have played 5-0 to the under in their last 5 contests following an over in their previous outing and there was a combined average of 121.6 points scored per game. The Aztecs have also gone under in their last 5 after allowing 70 points or more during its previous contest and there was a combined 118.2 points scored per game.

According to Ken Pomeroy, San Diego State is #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and UConn is #8. Additionally, UConn is #214 in adjust offensive temp and San Diego State is #270.

Give me this game to go under the total.

Miami vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET

Game# 703-704

Play On: Miami +5.5 (10*)

I really like this UConn team. Nevertheless, I believe this is a contest that will go down to the wire, and the Huskies will be hard pressed to cover a relatively high number with all considered. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 9-1 ATS including 7-3 SU as an underdog this season. Additionally, if the Hurricanes were +3.5 or greater, they improved to 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU for the season. Furthermore, their last 3 wins in the NCAA Tournament all came as an underdog versus #21 Indiana, #2 Houston, and #5 Texas. Those 3 teams finished with a cumulative record of 84-24 (.778). So, it’s not like the Canes had an easy path to reach the Final Four. On the other hand, UConn has yet to be challenged in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins with all of them coming by 15 points or more. Miami is a very difficult team to blow out with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 7 points or fewer, and 4 of those defeats were by narrow margins of 3 points or less.

Give me Miami plus the points.

San Diego State vs. Creighton 2:20 PM ET

Game# 657-658

Play On: San Diego State +2.5 (10*)

San Diego State is an elite defensive team with size, length, and athleticism. That will be the difference in the outcome of this game. During their 3 NCAA Tournament wins over Charleston, Furman, and Alabama, San Diego State allowed just 57.7 points per game while those 3 opponents shot a terrible 32.2% from the field. The Aztecs will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 3-point loss to Creighton in last year’s NCAA Tournament.

Creighton is coming off an 11-point win versus #15 seed Princeton and barely covered as a 10.0-point favorite despite shooting 58%. It will be a huge adjustment for them going from going up against the Ivy League champion to playing stingy defensive team like San Diego State. The Bluejays are averaging 9 three-point makes per game. However, San Diego State has gone 13-1 SU this season versus opponents who were averaging 8 or more 3-point shots made per game.

Give me San Diego State.

Farleigh-Dickinson vs. FAU 7:45 PM ET

Game# 843-844

Play On: FAU -15.0 (10*)

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the sentimental underdog and #16 seed Farleigh-Dickinson in this matchup. I believe we’ll see a similar type of result on Sunday that we saw on Saturday when San Diego State blew out Furman. San Diego State wasn’t going to take the underdog Paladins who upset Virginia in Round 1 lightly, and especially so with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. FAU finds itself in a similar position on Sunday versus a #16 seed who pulled off the massive upset over #1 seed Purdue in Round 1. The upstart FAU Owls is in no position to take any game for granted in the NCAA Tournament with being on the cusp of a first ever Sweet 16 appearance. Ken Pomeroy has FDU ranked #275 in the country, #353 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and #361 regarding strength of schedule.

Give me FAU minus the points.

Maryland vs. Alabama 9:40 PM ET

Game# 805-806

Play On: Alabama -8.5 (10*)

These teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season and Alabama walked away with a 96-77 win. I expect a similar type of result today. For starters, the game will be played in Birmingham which is about as close a home game for Alabama as you can possibly get, and I’m handicapping it as such. Alabama was a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 24.5 points per game. Conversely, Maryland has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Their only win came over Big 10 cellar dweller Minnesota.

Alabama has been locked in defensively over their previous 5 contests while holding their opponents to a combined 32.7% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Maryland has averaged just 64.6 points scored per game while shooting an uninspiring 42.5% throughout its previous 5 games.

Give me Alabama minus the points.

Northwestern vs. UCLA 8:40 PM ET

Game# 815-816

Play On: Northwestern +7.5 (10*)

I’m not going to poke holes in in the #7 UCLA Bruins (30-5) season resume because quite frankly there would be little to talk about. However, I do feel this will be a difficult number to cover. Northwestern possesses a veteran 3-guard veteran backcourt that’s very good and will be vital in us covering this contest. Furthermore, Northwestern has gone an extremely profitable 11-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 2.5 or greater and won 9 of those contests straight up. When tightening those numbers up even more, Northwestern improves to 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as an underdog of 2.5 or greater immediately following a SU win. The Wildcats are coming off Thursday NCAA Tournament 75-67 win over Boise State in a game they shot an impressive 49.1%. UCLA is #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Nonetheless, Northwestern is pretty good as well with a #18 national ranking in that identical category.

Give me Northwestern plus the points.

Kent State vs. Indiana 9:55 PM ET

Game# 771-772

Play On: Kent State +4.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page at me. We have #21 Indiana as just a 4.0-point favorite versus unranked Kent State winners of the MAC Tournament. However, Kent State has proven it can play with the big boys this season. They lost at #2 Houston (31-3) by 5, #9 Gonzaga (28-5) by 7, and at CAA champion Charleston (31-3) by only 2. The Golden Flashes are 22-3 in their last 25 and includes a current 6-game win streak. Indiana went just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Hoosiers did most of their damage at home this season where they went 15-2. Conversely, they were just 7-9 in away and neutral site games.

Give me Kent State plus the points.

Charleston vs. San Diego State 3:10 PM ET

Game# 737-738

Play On: San Diego State -5.0 (10*)

Charleston seems to be a popular pick when it comes to upsets on March Madness brackets being filled out by the public. After all, they’re 31-3 which includes 16-2 in conference play. However, as opposed to San Diego State, Charleston ranks #304 national in terms of strength of schedule and #232 with regards to its non-conference slate.

San Diego State (27-6) is the Mountain West Conference Tournament regular season and conference tournament champion. That’s nothing to make light off since the conference will be represented by 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs have traditionally been an excellent defensive team. This season is no different since they rank #10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs also played the 16th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Aztecs will also have a decided advantage when it comes to experience which should always be factored in when handicapping NCAA Tournament games.

Give me San Diego State minus the points.

Tulane vs. Wichita State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 827-828

Play On: Over 151.0 (10*)

Wichita State has seen 15 of their last 16 games go over the total. The Shockers have shot 50% or better in their last 4 and 7 of its previous 9 games.

Tulane has played 14-4-1 to the over in their last 19 games. The Green Wave have scored 78 points or more in each of their last 5 and 7 of its previous 8 games.

These teams played twice during regular season action with each contest going over the total and there were 185 and 163 combined points scored in those contests.

Give me this game to go over the total.

UNLV @ Nevada 5:00 PM ET

Game# 667-668

Play On: Nevada -8.5 (5*)

UNLV is coming off a terrible 25-point home blowout loss to Utah State in their previous game. The Rebels have now lost 4 of its last 5 while shooting a terrible 38.7% throughout that stretch.

Nevada is coming off an 80-71 upset loss at Wyoming. However, the Wolfpack is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS following a loss this season. Nevada is also 14-0 at home and that includes 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when facing conference opponents. The Wolfpack will be also out to atone for a 68-62 loss at UNLV earlier this season.

Give me Nevada minus the points.

New York @ Miami 8:10 PM ET

Game# 553-554

Play On: New York -2.5 (5*)

Miami has been slumping which is evidenced by them going 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The Heat have scored 108 points or fewer in each of its previous 8 games. It’s very difficult to win in this NBA modern era with that kind of poor offensive scoring numbers.

New York enters today a red-hot 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 and won by a decisive margin of 16.0 points per game. During this sizzling hot run they’ve averaged 123.7 points scored per game and shot a combined 51.5% from the field. The Knicks most latest win came at home over Brooklyn 142-118. New York is 4-0 SU&ATS this season on the road immediately following a road double-digit win and they won by an average of 13.0 points per game.

Give me New York minus the points.

Virginia @ North Carolina 6:00 PM ET

Game# 713-714

Play On: North Carolina -3.0 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page at me. We have an unranked North Carolina team which has lost 5 of its last 7 games as a favorite over the #6 ranked team in the country. They’re begging you to take the underdog in this spot. I’m not falling for the bait. 

Give me North Carolina minus the points.

Michigan State @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 777-778

Play On: Michigan -130 (10*)

Michigan State has gone 1-3 SU&ATS in their last 4 conference away games. Their lone win that sequence came over a struggling Ohio State team that has lost its last 7 and 12 of their previous 13 games.

Michigan lost their last 2 games by 1 to Indiana and by versus Wisconsin. However, the Wolverines haven’t lost 3 consecutive games in a row all season. Michigan is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS this season following losses in each of its previous 2 contests and won by an average of 18.5 points per game and all were versus Big 10 opponents. Michigan is 6-2 SU in conference home games this season with their only losses coming by 5 versus #3 Purdue (23-4) and against #14 Indiana (18-8) by 1. Today’s opponent Michigan State is unranked. The Wolverines are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season in conference home games when facing unranked opponents and won by an average of 14.2 points per game.

Give me Michigan on the money line.

UCF @ Memphis 8:00 PM ET

Game# 799-800

Play On: Over 149.0 (10*)

Earlier this season there would be no possible chance I would bet a UCF game to go over a number that neared or surpassed 150.0. Nevertheless, much has changed between then and now. These teams played a 2-overtime thriller earlier this season which saw UCF pull out a 107-104 win. However, that game was 78-78 at the end of regulation time which still would have sailed over that total of just 135.5.

During their previous 5 contests, Memphis has averaged 90.6 points scored per game, shot 50.2% from the field, and made 38.7% of its 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, UCF has averaged 74.6 points scored per game, made 40.9% of its 3-point shot attempts, and made an average of 11 three-point shots per outing throughout their previous 5 contests. Memphis averages 24 free throw attempts and allows 24 free throw attempts per game this season. UCF is #1 in American Athletic Conference action in free throw percentage at 80.7%. Memphis is pretty good themselves in converting on 75.3% of its free throws in conference games.

UCF has played 8-0 to the over this season immediately following playing in 3 straight conference games and there was a combined 156.9 points scored per contest. The Golden Knights have also played 7-0-2 to the over in their last 9 games overall. Memphis has gone over in their last 3 and there was a combined 174.0 points scored per game.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Texas @ Kansas State 4:00 ET

Game# 666-700

Play On: Over 149.0 (10*)

These teams met earlier this season in Austin and Kansas State walked away with a 116-103 win, and no there wasn’t any overtime. There were a combined 59 free throw attempts in that contest and the team went and made 53 of them for an excellent 89.8% conversion rate. Not to mention, combining to go 24-51 (47.1%) on 3-point shot attempts. I am not predicting those gaudy numbers will repeat themselves in this one, but I do think will see a similar volume of attempts in each category. By the way, these teams have now gone over the total in each of the last 6 times they’ve met.

Texas has played 11-3 to the over in their last 14 games. The Longhorns are coming off a 76-71 home win versus Baylor and that contest barely went under the total of 148.5. Texas has played 6-0 to the over off a conference win this season and there was a combined 162.9 points scored per game. Texas has also played over in their last 4 immediately after an under and there was a combined 162.3 points scored per game.

Kansas State has played 5-0 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 143.5 or greater and it produced a combined 165.4 points scored per game. Throughout their previous 5 games, the Wildcats averaged an enormous 28 free throw attempts per game and made an outstanding 76.1% of those tries. That’s good news considering Texas allows 24 free throw attempts per game in conference play. Kansas State has also made a very good 38% of their 3-point shot attempts in conference play.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Indiana @ Maryland 9:00 PM ET

Game# 643-644

Play On: Maryland -2.5 (10*)

Indiana is coming off a home blowout win over Ohio State. However, it must be noted that Indiana is currently a money line underdog of +130 in this matchup. Since the start of the 2020-2021 season, Indiana is 0-10 SU as a money line road underdog of +200 or less and lost by an average of 11.0 points per game. They were in that situation twice this season and lost at Penn State by 19 and at Kansas by 22.

Maryland is 11-1 SU at home this season with their lone defeat coming against an extremely good UCLA team. Nevertheless, the Terrapins are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game.

Give me Maryland minus the points.

Iowa State @ Kansas 4:00 PM ET

Game# 709-710

Play On: Iowa State +8.5 (10*)

There’s no denying how good the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks are. The Jayhawks are 15-1 with their lone defeat coming versus a Tennessee who is a serious national title contender. However, since the 2020-2021 season, Kansas is 1-8 ATS in January home games with just a +1.3 point per game differential. Kansas is 2-0 at home in conference thus far but those victories over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State came by just a combined 6 points.

Iowa State can be extremely frustrating to play against. They play at a snail’s pace offensively, are #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and #1 in forcing turnovers. This is also a very experienced Cyclones team that won’t be rattled by a hostile environment. Iowa State is coming off an 84-50 home blowout win over a solid Texas Tech team. That win improved their season record to 13-2 and includes 4-0 during Big 12 Conference games.

Give me Iowa State plus the points.

Duke @ Xavier 3:30 PM ET

Game# 911-912

Play On: Duke -4.5 (10*)

Xavier enters this Phil Knight Invitational Semifinal having in Portland. Oregon having scored an average of 85.8 points scored per game this season. The Musketeers have also allowed 81 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. College Basketball neutral site favorites versus an opponent that averages 84.0 or more points scored per game who also allowed 80 points or greater in each of their last 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1997. The average line for those favorites during those 37 contests was 5.8 and they outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per game.

Give me Duke minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kent State @ Charleston 6:00 PM ET

Game# 693-694

Play On: Charleston -2.0 (10*)

Kent State is 5-0 but they have played a substantially weaker schedule than 4-1 Charleston has faced. Charleston’s lone loss came at #1 North Carolina by 16 and they led that contest by 8 points at the half. Charleston has recorded quality wins over Davidson, Colorado State, and Virginia Tech. They’re battle tested and are a perfect 5-0 at home while covering 4 of those contests.

Give me Charleston minus the small number.

Warriors @ Celtics 9:00 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Celtics -3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off a disappointing 104-94 loss in Game 5 at Golden State. The Celtics have now lost 2 straight and find themselves on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 series deficit. However, the Celtics haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/29/2021. As a matter of fact they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 following 2 consecutive losses and won by an average of 18.3 points per contest. Golden State enters tonight’s game with a season record of 68-35 (.660).

Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 7.0 or less (Celtics) that’s playing in a Game 6, and is coming off a loss in which they scored less than 100 points, versus an opponent (Warriors) with a season record of .636 to .736, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 2004. Those home teams won those 10 contests by a decisive margin of 14.9 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play.

Celtics @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 525-526

Play On: Celtics +4.0 (10*)

The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to give themselves a commanding 3-1 series lead following their 107-97 home loss to Golden State in Game 4. Nevertheless, Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during these playoffs following a loss and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 15.6 points per game. The Celtics are also a very successful 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. Furthermore, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS this season following a loss by 10 points or more with a sizable +11.1 points per game differential. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off a 116-100 win over Golden State in Game 3 on Wednesday night an easily covered as a 3.5-point home favorite. This sets up a terrific NBA Playoff betting angle which is displayed below.

Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in Game 4 of a series and is coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 6.0 to 24.0 points, resulted in those Game 4 home favorites going 14-1 SU&ATS since 2010. If that point-spread was 2.5 to 5.0 points the home favorite improves to 10-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Golden State @ Boston 9:00 PM ET

Game# 521-522

Play On: Boston -3.5 (10*)

Golden State has been terrific at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs with a 10-1 record. Nonetheless, they’ve gone a concerning 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6 on the road. The Warriors enter today with a season record of 66-34 (.660).

Boston is coming off a 107-88 loss in Game 2 at Golden State which evened this NBA Finals series at 1-1. However, the Celtics have been a resilient bunch during the postseason following a loss while going 6-0 SU&ATS and winning by a decisive average of 15.5 points per game. As a matter of fact, Boston hasn’t lost 2 consecutive games since 3/30. This will be the 1st NBA Finals home game for the Celtics faithful since 2010 and the atmosphere at TD Garden tonight promises to be electric thus giving an additional energy boost to their beloved team.

Any NBA Playoff Game 3 home favorite of 2.5 to 4.5 points (Boston) that’s coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 15.0 or less, and it evened the series at 1-1, and is facing an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .690 or less, resulted in those Game 3 home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 10 contests by an average of 10.7 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for my NBA Playoff Game of the Year.

Celtics @ Warriors 8:00 PM ET

Game# 519-52

Play On: Boston +4.5 (10*)

The early betting on this game has heavily sided with the home favorite Golden State Warriors. Yet, this line opened at 4.0 and is currently still at 4.0 at most betting parlors. The sportsbooks have been unfazed by the onslaught of action wagered on the home side while refusing to move off the opening line. Since the Celtics are coming off a 120-108 win in Game 1 on Thursday night, their remains many NBA bettors that still subscribe to the zig-zag theory as being a no brainer concept at playoff time. There is also a consensus opinion out there giving little if any chance the Golden State will lose 2 straight at home, especially after starting the postseason 9-0 in San Francisco, and going 40-11 this season on their home floor all year. Hence, the predictable heavy action on the Warriors. Much ado has been given to the Warriors home court prowess during these playoffs, and rightfully so. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Boston is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS on the road during the postseason while facing very good opponents in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami.

These teams are being lauded as being elite defensively. Boston has certainly earned that reputation for their play during regular season action in which they were #1 in many defensive categories. Despite giving up 108 to Golden State in Game 1, the Celtics have held their last 5 playoff opponents to 95.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 96 points or fewer in 5 of their previous 10 contests. Conversely, Golden State has allowed 110 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games.

Boston is coming off a 120-108 win at Golden State on Thursday and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped the Warriors season record to 65-34 (.657). Any NBA Finals away underdog of 6.0 or less (Boston) that’s coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 110 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Golden State) with a win percentage of .707 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 4-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The away underdogs not only won all 4 of those contests straight up, but they did so by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game. The average line in those 4 games was 4.7. Give me the Celtics plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Golden State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 517-518

Play On: Celtics +3.5 (10*)

Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at home during these 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, Boston is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road in this postseason. Golden State has been a heavily wagered on side thus far according to public betting patterns. Afterall, they have a huge edge in NBA Finals experience and will be facing a Celtics team coming off back-to-back series that have gone an entire 7 games. Additionally, Golden State will be playing on an extra 3 days of rest compared to Boston in Game 1. Thus, public perception and betting trends being lopsided toward Golden State.

However, Boston has gone 19-9 ATS as an underdog this season including 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Celtics have also won their last 4 and 6 of its previous 7 played at Golden State. That includes a 22-point win at Golden State on 3/16. The Celtics were tremendous defensively against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, and especially so during the last 5 in that series when they held the Heat to 95.6 points scored per game and an atrocious 39.6% shooting. Granted Golden State will present more challenges offensively than Miami. Nonetheless, the Heat are more committed defensively than Golden State. Boston has defeated Brooklyn with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, defending world champion Milwaukee, and #1 Eastern Conference seed Miami to reach the Finals. A far tougher path than Golden State has taken. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 953-954

Play On: Celtics -2.5 (10*)

This will be just the 3rd time since 1991 NBA Playoffs that we have a Game 7 road favorite. That speaks volumes to me. Not only are the Celtics a Game 7 road favorite, but it comes after a Game 6 home loss and them squandering a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The sportsbooks are dangling the carrot to take the home underdog in this win or go home matchup. I am not taking the bait.

Any NBA Game 7 away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 and there was a total of 203.0 or less, resulted in those road teams going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1991. The average margin of victory was 7.0-points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Over 201.5 (10*)

Miami just can’t possibly play any worse offensively than they did in their Games 4 and 5 losses. They were just a combined 60-184 (32.6%) shooting and scored 80 and 82 points. The Heat were embarrassed in a 93-80 home loss to Boston in Game 5 and were outscored 57-39 during 2nd half action. However, Miami has played 11-2 to the over on the road this season following a loss by 10 or more and there was a combined 222.4 points scored per game. Each of the last 2 games in this series went under. Boston has played 5-1 to the over at home this season following 2 consecutive games going under. Play on this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: Miami +2.5 (10*)

Miami is coming off a terrible performance in Game 4 at Boston on Monday which resulted in a 102-82 blowout loss. However, the Heat have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss and won by a massive average of 27.3 points per game. Despite that lopsided loss, Miami still held Boston to just 39% shooting. Miami is 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they held their opponent to less than 40% shooting and won by an average of 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Heat have gone 20-1 SU this season following a game in which there was a combined 205 points or less scored. Lastly, Boston has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win and all those contests took place in the playoffs. Give me the Heat plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Golden State @ Dallas 9:00 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Over 215.5 (10*)

Golden State holds a commanding 3-0 series lead following a 109-100 win at Dallas on Sunday.  That contest went under the total of 216.5. Golden State has played 6-1 to the over in their last 7 following a game which went under the total and there was a combined 233.3 points scored per game. Additionally, Golden State scored 121.1 points per game throughout those 7 contests. Conversely, Dallas has averaged 114.0 points scored per contest in their last 15 this season following an outing in which they scored 100 points or fewer.

Since the 1991 NBA Playoffs, visiting teams that hold a 3-0 series lead and there’s a total of 214.0 or greater, resulted in those games playing 8-1 (88.9%) to the over. The average total in those 9 postseason contests was 220.8 and there were a combined 234.3 points scored per game. Play on this game to go over the total for a Top Play.

Heat @ Celtics 8:30 PM ET

Game# 565-566

Play On: Under 206.5 (10*)

These teams have a combined 8 players that are listing as questionable for tonight’s game. There’s a good chance that most will play and be less than 100% which is typical at this time of year. More times than not, teams in this situation lose more offensively than defensively.

The first 3 games of this series have all gone over the total. Miami has played 3-0 to the under in their last 3 games following 3 straight overs. Miami is coming off an upset win in Game 3 at Boston. However, Boston has allowed just an average of 97.5 points per game this season immediately following 1 of their 17 straight up favorite losses. Furthermore, the Celtics have allowed only 97.8 points scored per game in their last 4 games immediately following a loss. Give me this game to go under the total for a Top Play.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 563-564

Play On: Dallas -125 (10*)

Dallas lost the first 2 games of this series and allowed Golden State to shoot exactly 56.1% on both occasions. However, the Mavericks haven’t lost 3 straight games since 12/7/2021. Additionally, they’ve gone 7-2 SU this season immediately following 2 consecutive losses and that includes 5-0 SU in their last 5. It’s also worth noting that Dallas is 5-0 SU&ATS following 2 straight games in which they allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better and they won by an average of 16.0 points per game. Dallas is currently a money line home favorite of -125. The Mavericks have gone an unblemished 16-0 this season as a money line home favorite of -250 or less. Give me Dallas on the money line for a Top Play wager.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: Mavericks +6.5 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a terrible 112-87 loss in the series opener on Wednesday. The Mavericks were held to 36% shooting and were dominated on the boards 51-35. However, this is a very resilient Dallas team that’s gone 10-0 SU this season following a loss by 20 points or more and outscored opponents by 13.2 points per game. Dallas is also 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 this season after shooting worse than 40% during its previous game and won by 14.9 points per contest. Lastly, the Mavericks are 12-1 SU during their last 13 following a game they scored less than 100 points. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Boston +3.5 (10*)

Boston is coming off an opening game 118-107 loss at Miami and failed to cover as a 4.0-point underdog. Boston has gone a terrific 10-1 SU in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in the playoffs with an average victory margin 14.7 points per contest. The Celtics will also welcome NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to the lineup after he missed Game 1 due to a foot injury.

Since the 2011 NBA Playoffs, any away underdog of 4.5 or less that’s playing in a Game 2 and is coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 20.0-points or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 9-0 ATS. Furthermore, those away underdogs won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Give me Boston plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Mavericks @ Warriors 9:00 PM ET

Game# 539-540

Play On: Mavericks +5.0 (10*)

Dallas has gone 3-1 SU&ATS versus Golden State this season. The Mavericks recently concluded a huge upset win over #1 seed Phoenix in their previous series which was culminated with a decisive 123-90 road win in Game 7. Dallas is 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or fewer in their previous contest and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game. The Mavericks are also 15-3 SU this season following a game in which they allowed 95 points or fewer. During their last 3 games in the Conference Semifinals versus Memphis, Golden State only averaged 102.0 points scored per contest while shooting a poor 41.2% from the field. Give me the Mavericks plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Heat 8:45 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Celtics +2.0 (10*)

The Celtics are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road thus far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only blemish came in Game 3 at Milwaukee when they fell by just 2 points after Al Horford’s potential last second game tying tip was waved off and deemed to be just after time had expired. The Celtics have also gone a noteworthy 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami. Boston has an impressive +7.4 point per game differential on the road this season. During their 3 regular season meetings versus Miami, Boston held the Heat to a mere 92.0 points scored per game and 40.5% shooting. During their 7-game series win over Milwaukee, Boston held a potent offensive team like the Bucks to just 97.7 points per contest. Lastly, it’s really odd to seed a #1 seed as just a 2.0-point home favorite in Game 1 of a Conference Finals, not to mention that the Heat are a money line underdog of +150 to win the series. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Bucks @ Celtics 3:30 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*)

Boston has exhibited exactly why they were #1 in overall defensive efficiency during regular season action. Throughout the first 6 games of this series versus Milwaukee they held the Bucks to 110.5 points scored per game and 42.2% shooting. They will carry the momentum carried over from a convincing 108-95 win in Game 6 at Milwaukee. Boston has already lost twice at home in this series. I deem it to be highly improbable that a team that played so well during the 2nd half of the season will lose 3 at home in a single playoff series and is even more likely to win by a comfortable margin.

The Celtics forced a Game 7 with an impressive 108-95 win at Milwaukee on Thursday night. That win improved the Celtics season record to 58-34 (.630). Any NBA Playoff team that’s a home favorite of 4.0 to 6.5-points in a Game 7, and they possess a win percentage of .626 or better, and they allowed 98 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those Game 7 home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS. The home teams also outscored their 7 opponents by a decisive average of 15.6 points per game. The home team only allowed an average of 88.3 points per game during those 7 contests. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 516-517

Play On: Celtics +1.5 (10*)

The defending world champion Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a thrilling 110-107 comeback win at Boston on Wednesday. The Bucks overcame a 14-point early 4th quarter deficit and trailed by 6 with less than 2 minutes left. Yet, they’re just a 1.5-point favorite with a chance to close the series at home and prevent going back to Boston for a Game 7. As I have stated on too many times to remember, “think like a bookmaker”. If it looks too easy, then most times it is when it’s regarding sports betting. This is a textbook example of such.

Any away team (Celtics) with a win percentage of .700 or less that’s playing in a Game 6 during the first 2 rounds of the NBA Playoffs and is coming off a home favorite SU loss in Game 5, resulted in those away teams going 20-2 ATS (91%) since 2000. Those away teams also went 21-3 SU (.875) in those contests as well. Give me Boston plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Phoenix @ Dallas 9:30 PM ET

Game# 909-910

Play On: Dallas +2.0 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a brutal performance during Tuesday night’s 110-80 loss at Phoenix and now finds itself down 3-2 in this series, and on the brink of elimination. However, this is a Mavericks team that’s shown excellent recuperative powers following a lopsided loss. Specifically speaking, Dallas is a perfect 8-0 SU this season following a road loss by 20 points or more and they won by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Mavericks are also 14-1 SU since the start of last season following any loss by 20 points or greater. This is also a Mavericks team which is 33-13 SU (.715) at home this season. Phoenix is just 2-3 on the road in the playoffs after going a terrific 32-9 during regular season away games. Give me Dallas plus the small number for a Top Play.

Bucks @ Celtics 7:00 PM ET

Game# 507-508

Play On: Celtics -5.0 (10*)

The Celtics have held one of the better offensive teams in the NBA to 99.5 points scored per game and 42.1% shooting throughout the first 4 games of this series. Furthermore, during the previous 3 games of the series, Milwaukee is a terrible 21-79 (26.6%) from beyond the 3-point line. Additionally, during those 3 contests Boston has outscored Milwaukee in the 4th quarters by a combined score of 103-71. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to draw the conclusion that Milwaukee is obviously wearing down late in game while the Celtics keep getting stronger. 

Any NBA home favorite of 6.0 or less (Celtics) that’s play in a Round 2 Game 5 of a playoff series and is coming off an away underdog SU win by 5 points or more, resulted in those reasonably sized home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1991. Those 8 home favorites won those contests by a decisive average of 20.0 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus the points for a Top Play wager.

76ers @ Heat 7:30 PM ET

Game# 501-502

Play On: 76ers +3.0 (10*)

The 76ers are obviously a different team when Joel Embiid is healthy and able to play. They lost the first 2 games of this series by sizable margins. However, Embiid returned in Game 3 and Philadelphia went 2-0 SU&ATS since. Additionally, Jimmy Butler of Miami accounted for 73 of Miami’s 187 points (39%) in those 2 losses, and the 76ers prevented any other Heat players from putting up any big numbers. That recent defensive strategy has worked, and l look for it to be continued in Game 5. Give me the 76ers plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Celtics @ Bucks 7:30 PM ET

Game# 581-582

Play On: Boston +1.5 (10*)

Down 2-1 in the series, I look for Boston to be playing with an extremely high degree of desperation and urgency. Boston is coming off a 103-10 loss at Milwaukee in Game 3. Nonetheless, the Celtics are 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss. Their only blemish to that recent team trend was a loss at Miami in a game that Boston was without its 2 top scorers Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Furthermore, Boston shot a miserable 36% in that Game 3 loss on Saturday. The Celtics are an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a game in which they shot less than 40% and won by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per contest. Give me the Celtics on the money line.

Memphis @ Golden State 8:30 PM ET

Game 573-574

Play On: Over 225.0 (10*)

Just as I expected, the public has overreacted to Game 2 easily going under the total of 227.5 during a Memphis 106-101 win. However, the oddsmakers were undeterred by that result and made just a slight adjust to an opening total of 226.5 for Game 3. Let’s not forget, Golden State won the series opener 117-116 in a game that was extremely entertaining to watch. Furthermore, the pace of the first 2 games of the series was lightning fast with a combined 188 and 186 field goal attempts which is extremely high by even NBA standards. Lastly, Memphis has played 16-5 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 220.0 to 229.5. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Bucks @ Celtics 7:05 PM ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Celtics -4.5 (10*)

The Celtics are coming off an embarrassing 101-89 loss in Game 1. There was a lot of rarities that occurred for that to happen which are highly improbable to occur again in Game 2.

It was just the 5th time that Boston had scored 95 points or less since 12/10/21. The good news for Celtics backers is their team has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since that time immediately after scoring 95 or less and won by an average of 15.3 points per contest. Despite that low scoring output, Boston still was a respectable 18-50 (36%) on their 3-point shot attempts. Unfortunately, they went a horrendous 10-34 from inside the 3-point line. That’s an extremely rare occurrence for an NBA team to not only make just 10 two-point field goal attempts in a game, but also nearly doubling that output from 3-point territory, and especially so for a quality group like the Celtics.

Lastly, the Celtics shot a miserable 33.3% from the field overall. Boston has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season following a contest in which they shot less than 40% and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.2 points per game. Conversely, since the start of last season, Milwaukee is 0-4 SU&ATS after holding their opponent to 35% or worse shooting in their previous contest, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per game. Give me Boston minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Dallas @ Phoenix 10:00 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Over 214.0 (10*)

Phoenix shot 50% in all 6 games against New Orleans despite start guar Devin Booker missing 4 of those contests. Booker and his 26.8 points per game scoring average is back and healthy again and shook off some of the rust during his return in the Game 6 series clinching win over New Orleans. Phoenix has played 18-5 to the over since the start of last season when facing opponents that have a +3.0 or greater point per game differential. Those 23 contests averaged a combined 227.1 points scored per game. Dallas is currently at +3.5 per contest.

Dallas shot an impressive 38.4% from 3-point territory in their series win over Utah and averaged 17 makes per game. Similar to Phoenix, Dallas played the first 3 games of that Utah series without their star guard Luka Doncic. All he did is lead the NBA in scoring during regular season action at 28.4 points per game and fell just shy of averaging a triple double. During his 3 games played in the New Orleans series, Doncic averaged 29.0 points scored, 5.7 assists, and 10.8 rebounds per contest. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Golden State @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET

Game# 515-516

Play On: Over 219.5 (10*)

Golden State averages 118.0 points scored per game and shot a red-hot 51.5% during their just completed 4-1 series win over Denver. Memphis allowed Minnesota to shoot 38.8% from beyond the 3-point-line during their 4-2 series win. That can be problematic for the Grizzlies since Golden State made 42.2% of their long-distance attempts versus Denver. Since Game 42 of their season, Memphis has played 10-2 (83% and there was a combined average of 231.2 points scored per contest. to the over when facing opponents like Golden State that allow 108 or fewer points per game. The Grizzlies were adept at getting to the free throw line in the Minnesota series while getting there a massive 32 times per contest. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Philadelphia @ Toronto 7:00 PM ET

Game# 567-568

Play On: Philadelphia -111 (10*)

After losing the first 3 games of this playoff series the Raptors have shown a ton of character to win the last 2 and stave off elimination. During the previous 3 games Toronto has held Philadelphia to 104 points or less on each occasion. However, Toronto has gone 0-5 SU at home this season after allowing 105 points or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. Conversely, Philadelphia is coming off an an extremely disappointing 103-88 home loss in Game 5. Nevertheless, the 76ers are 5-0 SU this season after scoring 90 points or fewer in their previous games.

Since 2004, home teams that are a pick or underdog in Game 6 of a playoff series and are coming off exactly 2 wins, resulted in those home teams going 0-4 SU&ATS with an average losing margin of 19.0 points per game. The 4 home teams also averaged a mere 84.8 points scored per game during those 4 contests. Give me Philadelphia on the money line for a Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET

Game# 541-542

Play On: Minnesota +6.0 (10*)

After blowing a 26-point lead in Game 3 and losing 104-95, Minnesota bounced back with an impressive 119-118 win in Game 4. It was impressive in the sense that it was a huge emotional blow when collapsing in Game 3 and the Timberwolves were unshaken in their Game 4 performance. Minnesota also has the confidence in knowing that can win at Memphis like they did 130-117 in Game 1. Furthermore, Minnesota has played the #2 seed Memphis Grizzlies on even terms this season while splitting the 8 head-to-head matchups. This game will be much closer than many are predicting, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Minnesota win straight up. However, I won’t get greed and will gladly take the points. Give me Minnesota plus

Celtics @ Nets 7:00 PM ET

Game# 531-532

Play On: Celtics +110 (10*)

Brooklyn must be extremely frustrated at this point. After all, they shot a combined 51.1% during the first 3 games of this series which includes an excellent 40.3% from 3-point territory and yet still finds themselves down 3-0. Simply put, the Celtics have the Nets number, and it’s evidenced by them winning the last 6 meetings played against Brooklyn this season. The Nets may have the best 2 individual players in this series, but Boston is the better overall team. Brooklyn is an uninspiring 21-22 SU and a horrible 9-34 ATS this season at home. The Celtics have outscored their opponents this season by an average margin of 7.2 points per game. Conversely, Brooklyn has gone an abysmal 1-8 SU this season versus teams who average outscoring their opponents by an average of 6.0 or more points per game.

Boston is coming off a 109-103 win at Brooklyn in Game 3. The Celtics have now gone a sizzling hot 29-6 SU in their previous 35 games. On the other hand, Brooklyn has a season record of 45-41 (.523). Any NBA road team Celtics that’s up 3-0 in a playoff series, and they scored 93 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (Nets) with a win percentage of .630 or worse, resulted in those road teams going 28-2 SU (93.3%) since the 2002 postseason. Give me the Celtics for a Top Play money line wager.

Phoenix @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (10*)

This is the game that the Devin Booker being out of the lineup will cost Phoenix. They were able to escape with a 3-point win in Game 3 of Friday night. However, the Pelicans didn’t quit after being down 11 at the half and battled back to take a 4th quarter lead before succumbing to a late Phoenix surged sparked by Chris Paul. The Pelicans have gone an extremely profitable 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 following a loss during its previous game. Conversely, Phoenix is 0-4 SU during their last 4 immediately following a win. The Pelicans have shot an impressive 48.5% from the field and made 40.2% of its 3-point shot attempts throughout the first 3 games of this series. Give me New Orleans plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Phoenix @ New Orleans 9:30 PM ET

Game# 505-506

Play On: Phoenix -125 (10*)

Phoenix is coming off a shocking 125-114 loss as a 9.5-point home favorite in Game 2. The Suns have gone 14-4 SU this season following a loss and that includes 6-1 SU if it was a road contest. The Suns are also a terrific 26-4 SU (86.7%) this season as a money line road favorite. The Suns have shot 50.0% and 53.8% in the first 2 games of this series. Phoenix is a remarkable 18-1 SU this season following 2 consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better. Additionally, they’re 13-1 SU this season when playing on exactly 2 days of rest which is precisely the case today.

New Orleans finished the regular season by going an uninspiring 5-5 SU in their last 10 at home. The Pelicans were 0-2 SU&ATS at home versus Phoenix this season while sustaining decisive losses by scores of 131-115 and 123-111. During those 2 contests they allowed Phoenix to go 35-65 (53.8%) from beyond the 3-point line.

Any NBA money line road favorite (Phoenix) that facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win by 10 points or more, and they (New Orleans) possess a losing record, resulted in those road favorites going 37-6 (86%) since the start of the 2017-2018 season. Give me Phoenix for a money line Top Play wager.

Memphis @ Minnesota 7:30 ET

Game# 569-570

Play On: Minnesota +2.0 (5*)

The Memphis Grizzlies have enjoyed an excellent season that earned them the #2 Western Conference see. However, they’re not your typical #2 seed because of their combination of youth and limited NBA Playoff experience. This is a tough spot for them to come away with a win considering they’re playing on the road for a first time. Additionally, the Grizzlies are 0-5 SU during its previous 5 road games versus teams with a winning record. Conversely, Minnesota has gone 13-1 SU in their last 14 conference home games with their only loss coming to the #1 seed Phoenix Suns. Give me Minnesota.

Brooklyn @ Boston 7:00 PM ET

Game# 561-562

Play On: Boston -3.0 (10*)

The Nets have shot the ball extremely well over their last 3 games. Nevertheless, Boston has been red-hot offensively for a more extended period. Boston has shot 49% or better in 10 of their last 13 games. The Celtics have also scored 115 points or more in 11 of its previous 13 contests. Throughout their last 5, Boston has converted on a scalding hot 42.9% of their 3-point shots and that includes averaging 18 makes per game. Additionally, during regular season action, Boston was #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG), #1 in field goal percentage defense (43.4%), and #1 in 3-point percentage defense (33.9%).  Give me Boston minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Atlanta @ Miami 1:00 ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Over 219.5 (10*)

Miami has shot a red-hot 50.9% and averaged 115.0 points per game in their 4 meetings against Atlanta this season. The Heat also made 39.7% of their 3-point shot attempts in those contests. Miami has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 when there was a total of 214.0 to 230 and there was a combined average of 235.4 points scored per game. The Heat have also been red-hot offensively throughout their previous 5 games overall while averaging 121.6 points scored per contest, shooting 51.8%, converting an outstanding 46.3% of its 3-point shot attempts, and making a massive 18 threes per outing.

Atlanta has averaged 119.5 points scored per game, shot 50.6%, and made 39.7% of their 3-point shots throughout its last 5 contests. The Hawks will be compromised defensively after losing starting center Clint Capela to a knee injury in Friday’s win over Cleveland. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Denver @ Golden State 8:30 PM ET

Game# 523-524

Play On: Golden State -6.5 (10*)

Stephen Curry will return to the lineup for the first time since 3/16. The Warriors went 1-6 SU in their first 7 games without Curry following his injury. However, they’ve rebounded to win their final 5 regular season games and by a decisive margin of 143.2 points per contest. The Warriors have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home versus Denver while winning by 15.3 points per game. Furthermore, since the 2015 NBA Playoffs, Golden State is an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS in 1st round contests in which they were a favorite of 6.0 to 9.0 and won by a massive average of 22.7 points per game. Give me Golden State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Pelicans @ Clippers 10:05 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: New Orleans +150 (10*)

The Clippers will be without Paul George tonight and that’s huge. Thus, the recent substantial line move. Since returning from a 3-month absence due to injury, George has averaged an eye-popping 32.5 points and 5.6 assists per game over 6 contests. That includes scoring 42 points in a Play-In game loss to Minnesota on Tuesday. Prior to George’s return, the Clippers had lost 5 straight and 8 of 10.

New Orleans is coming off an impressive 10-point win over San Antonio on Wednesday in a game they shot 54.3% from the floor. The Pelican have gone a more than respectable 11-6 SU in their last 17 away games. They also went 3-1 SU&ATS this season versus the Clippers. Give me the Pelicans on the money line for a Top Play wager.

Suns @ Clippers 10:10 PM ET

Game# 589-590

Play On: Clippers +130 (10*)

The point-spread in this game opened with Phoenix being a 3.5-point road favorite. However, it’s now the Clippers who are the favorite. That’s a clear indication to me that the Suns will be resting 1 or more key players since they have already clinched the Western Conference #1 seed.

The Clippers have won 3 of its last 4 with their lone loss coming in overtime at Chicago. Nonetheless, during that stretch they have averaged a lofty 130.8 points per game and shot 51.9% from the field. Conversely, the Suns are 1-2 in their previous 3 and allowed 116.3 points per contest. The Clippers will also be playing on 2 days rest which should never be ignored this late in the regular season. Los Angeles will be facing a Phoenix team which has outscored their opponents by an average of 7.8 points per game this season. Nevertheless, the Clippers are an impressive 11-3 SU at home since the start of last season when facing teams that outscore their opponents by an average 6.0 or more points per game. Give me the Clippers for a Top Play money line wager.

North Carolina vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET

Game# 703-704

Play On: Over 151.0 (10*)

Duke has played 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games and that includes 5-0 (161.2 PPG) if the number was 146.0 or greater. The Blue Devils scored 78 or more points in 9 of their last 10 while shooting 47.8% or better in all 10.

North Carolina has scored 82.5 points per game in this NCAA Tournament. They also have averaged a robust 64.5 field goal attempts per game which equates to a lightning-fast pace. The Tar Heels will be facing a Duke team which has scored their opponents by an average of 12.7 points per game this season. North Carolina has played 7-0 to the over this season versus teams that outscored their opponents by 12.0 or more points per contest and there was an enormously combined 170.0 points scored per game.

Since the start of the 2019 season, these bitter ACC rivals have met 6 times and each of those contests have gone over the total. Ironically enough, the average total in those contests was 151.4 which is nearly identical to today’s number, and there was a combined 171.7 points scored per game. Duke is currently #1 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency and North Carolina is #18. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

New Orleans @ LA Lakers 10:40 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: New Orleans -120 (10*)

For starters, the Lakers will be playing with no rest, and it will also be its 3rd game in 4 days. Conversely, New Orleans will be playing in just their 2nd game in 5 days. By the way, the Lakers are 2-8 SU this season when playing with no rest.

Since Game 42 of their season, New Orleans has gone a terrific 11-1 SU on the road when playing a team with a losing record. The Lakers qualify in the regard as they enter today with a disappointing 31-45 record.

The Lakers have allowed their last 7 opponents to shoot 48% or better and also surrendered 120 points or greater in 7 of its previous 8 games. On the other hand, New Orleans has allowed 109 points or fewer in each of its last 5 games.

Lastly, New Orleans has gone 2-0 SU&ATS versus the Lakers this season while posting wins of 116-108 and 123-95. Give me New Orleans on the money line for a Top Play wager.

St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier 7:00 PM ET

Game# 647-648

Play On: St. Bonaventure -120 (10*)

Xavier is atoning for a underachieving regular season with this NIT run to Madison Square Garden. However, all 3 of their NIT wins were on their home floor and 2 of them came by only a combined 6 points. Xavier is just 5-8 SU this season in road and neutral site games. The Musketeers entered the NIT having gone 2-8 in their previous 10 games.

St. Bonaventure has literally traveled a more difficult path. The Bonnies 3 NIT victories all came on the road versus Colorado, Oklahoma, and Virginia. Furthermore, they were an underdog in each of those contests. The Bonnies are extremely disciplined. They have committed only 8.8 turnover per game throughout its last 5 contests and allowed their opponents just 9 free throw attempts per contest. This is a battle tested Bonnies team that earlier this season posted neutral site wins over Clemson, Boise State, and Marquette. The latter 2 teams made it to the NCAA Tournament. Give me St. Bonaventure for a Top Play money line wager.

Oklahoma City @ Portland 10:10 PM ET

Game# 547-548

Play On: Oklahoma City -125

The Thunder will be playing in just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. They have gone a somewhat respectable 11-9 SU this season when in that exact situation. Putting things into perspective is the fact that they’re 10-42 SU in all other games played.

This is a division game for Portland, and they’ve been abysmal in those contests this season. Specifically speaking, Portland has gone 1-12 SU versus division opponents while being outscored by an enormous 17.9 points per game. That includes 0-2 SU versus Oklahoma City with an average losing margin of 10.0 points per game.

Give me Oklahoma City as a 4-unit Top Play wager.

Charlotte @ Brooklyn 7:40 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Over 238.0 (10*)

I am not going to shy away from going over this big number. It’s this high for a reason. Charlotte has averaged 127.0 points scored per game in their last 6 on the road. Charlotte went under in their previous game. The Hornets have played 4-0 to the over in their previous 4 following an under in their previous outing and there was a combined 241.5 points scored per game.

Brooklyn has averaged 122.4 points scored per game and shot a blistering hot 53.1% throughout their previous 10 contests. The Nets have played 4-1 to the over in their last 5 when there was a total of 232.0 or greater and a combined 248.2 points were scored per contest. Brooklyn last played Charlotte on 3/8 and they won 132-121 with that contest going over the total of 240.0. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Arkansas vs. Duke 8:49 PM ET

Game# 641-642

Play On: Duke -3.5 (10*)

Arkansas is coming off a huge emotional upset win over the #1 ranked team in the country Gonzaga. Now with just 1-day of rest, they have to face another blue-blood in Duke with a legendary head coach is retiring at their season’s end. Granted that the Razorbacks win over Gonzaga was an impressive one. Nevertheless, let’s not forget that they had narrow 4 and 5-point wins over #12 seed New Mexico State and #13 seed Vermont during the first 2 rounds.

Duke is a very well-balanced team. The Blue Devils are #2 nationally in offensive efficiency while averaging 121.0 points scored per 100 possessions. Duke is 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 90.4 points per their opponent’s 100 offensive possessions. Arkansas has been dominant defensively in their previous 2 games. However, Duke has averaged 82.2 points scored per game while shooting a scalding hot 54% from the field throughout its previous 9 contests. Comparatively, Arkansas has shot 39.4% from the field and made a dismal 25.7% of their 3-point shot attempts over their last 5 games. Arkansas also has scored 22.8% of their points from the free throw line this season which is 8th highest in the country. Conversely, Duke has allowed their opponents a mere 12 free throw attempts per game this season. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Providence vs. Kansas 7:29 PM ET

Game# 635-636

Play On: Kansas -7.5 (10*)

I have been harsh on Kansas all season. However, this matchup versus Providence suits them well and I’m calling for a decisive Jayhawks win and cover. Throughout their last 6 games, Kansas has allowed just 63.5 points per contest and limited their opponents to a combined 37.5% shooting. Additionally, Kansas is 5-0 SU&ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 10.0 or less and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game. This is a well-balanced Kansas team that #6 nationally in offensive efficiency and #27 defensively.

Granted Providence shot 51.9% in their 79-51 blowout win over #12 seed Richmond in their previous game. However, it marked the first time since 1/23 that the Friars had shot 50% or better from the field. Furthermore, despite that good shooting game, Providence has made only 40.3% of their field goal attempts over its last 5 games. It also must be noted that providence faced a #13 and #12 seed in their 2 NCAA Tournament wins. They’ll be stepping up in class to take on the #2 seed Jayhawks (30-6). Give me Kansas minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Texas Tech vs. Duke 9:39 PM ET

Game# 629-630

Play On: Texas Tech -110 (10*)

We have the lower ranked and lower seeded team as a favorite in this contest. Public bettors have flocked to the window early to bet on Duke just as I expected. However, like I said on numerous occasions, my trust lies in the oddsmakers uncanny ability to set an accurate line 24/7 and 7 days a week over all else. The Red Raiders weren’t at their best in their 59-53 second round win over Notre Dame but still walked away with a win. Nevertheless, their calling card is on the defensive side of the floor. Notre Dame entered that 2nd round matchup having shot 50% or better in 5 consecutive games. Texas Tech forced the Fighting Irish into a horrible 32% shooting day. The Red Raiders have now held opponents to less than 40% shooting and 62 points or fewer in 5 of its last 6 games. Furthermore, Texas Tech is #1 nationally in defensive efficiency while allowing 84.4 points per opponent 100 offensive possessions. How good a rating is that? The next best team in terms of defensive deficiency that’s part of the ‘Sweet 16 field is Gonzaga at 89.7. Give me Texas Tech for a money line wager.

Washington State @ BYU 9:00 PM ET

Game# 619-620

Play On: BYU -135 (10*)

During their 2 NIT games with both played at home, BYU has scored 91.5 points per contest and shot a sizzling hot 53.7% from the field. AS a matter of fact, BYU has shot 50.8% or better in 6 of their last 9 games. Conversely, Washington State has shot 38.1% or worse in 10 of its previous 14 games. This is a battle tested BYU team that has played the 31st toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The Cougars are 14-2 at home this season with their lone defeats coming versus #1 Gonzaga and San Francisco who lost to #20 Murray State in overtime during a 1st round NCAA Tournament game. Give me BYU on the money line for a Top Play wager.

Clippers @ Nuggets 10:00 PM ET

Game# 543-544

Play On: Clippers +7.0 (10*)

Denver has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those losses came by double-digit margins. The Clippers have made a respectable 36.5% of their 3-point shot attempts this season. That’s significant as it pertains to this matchup considering Denver is 1-8 ATS at home this season versus opponents possessing a 36% or better 3-point shot conversion rate and they were outscored by an average of 7.0 points per game.

The Clippers have gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. However, they haven’t lost 4-games in a row all season long. As a matter of fact, the Clippers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following 3 consecutive losses and with an average victory margin of 8.7 points per game. Los Angeles has played Denver 3 times this season with all those contests be decided by 3-points or less and the Clippers were 3-0 ATS. Give me the Clippers plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ Dallas 8:40 PM ET

Game# 535-536

Play On: Minnesota +2.5 (10*)

Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off losses in each of the previous 2. Conversely, this will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a red-hot 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 and 4-0 SU&ATS during its previous 4 games. Throughout their last 5 contests, Minnesota has scored a lofty 126.8 points per game, shot 48.3% from the field, made 41.1% of its 3-point attempts, and went 88.1% at the free throw line. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a Top Play wager.

TCU vs. Arizona 9:40 PM ET

Game# 829-830

Play On: Arizona -9.5 (10*)

TCU is coming off an extremely impressive 69-42 win over Seton Hall on Friday. However, the Horned Frogs have gone just 1-5 SU&ATS during their last 6 following a win in its previous game. Additionally, there’s a sizable disparity in the opponent they’ll face today compared to a Seton Hall team that was average at best over the 2nd half of their season. TCU has scored less than 70 points in each of its last 5 and 9 of their previous 11 games. That’s problematic when it comes to this matchup when considering Arizona has scored 81 points or more during its last 7 and 11 of their previous 12 games. The Wildcats have also shot 49% or better during 11 of its previous 13 games. Arizona is far the better team in this game and will walk away with a decisive win and cover. Give me Arizona minus the points for a Top Play wager.

St. Mary’s vs. UCLA 7:10 PM ET

Game# 797-798

Play On: UCLA -2.5 (10*)

St. Mary’s looked terrific in their 82-53 rout of Indiana on Thursday. Conversely, UCLA closed the game on a 15-4 run in their narrow 57-53 win over Akron in a game they were a sizable 13.5-points favorite. As a result, we’ve seen a plethora of early bets and money being wagered on St. Mary’s. I’m predicting UCLA will bounce back with a huge performance on Saturday. This is an experienced UCLA team that advanced to the Final Four a season ago and that will pay dividends in this matchup. Give me UCLA minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Vermont vs. Arkansas 9:20 PM ET

Game# 721-722

Play On: Vermont +5.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the screen at first glance. Here we have the #17 Arkansas Razorbacks from the powerful SEC 25-8 as just a 5.0-point favorite versus a team that won the America East Conference. However, this is a Vermont Catamounts team that has an outstanding 28-5 record and that includes 22-1 during its previous 23 games. The Catamounts also went 2-1 in non-conference play versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Their wins came versus the Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs and the other against the Patriot League automatic qualifier the Colgate Raiders. Their loss came at #13 Providence by 10. The Catamounts defeated UMBC in the conference title game by a lopsided 82-43 score. Since the start of last season, Vermont has won 8 games by 30 points or more, and they followed the previous 7 by going 7-0 SU&ATS while winning by a substantial 24.6 points per contest. Give me Vermont plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Wyoming vs. Indiana 9:10 PM ET

Game# 665-666

Play On: Wyoming +4.5 (10*)

Indiana is certainly the bigger brand than Wyoming and plays in a better Conference. Which aligns itself with an enormous amount of early money being wagered on the Hoosiers. However, the Mountain West Conference was vastly underrated this season which is evidenced by their 4 NCAA Tournament berths and 2 of those teams (Boise State, Colorado State) being currently being ranked in the Top 25. It must be noted, Indiana has gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 games versus teams that are in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field.

Wyoming is coming off a loss against #23 Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been resilient this season which is proven by their 6-1 SU record following a loss. They were also an extremely profitable 7-3 ATS as an underdog. Give me Wyoming plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Milwaukee @ Utah 10:10 PM ET

Game# 515-516

Play On: Utah +1.5 (10*)

You may be surprised to know that Milwaukee has gone a dismal 4-11 SU&ATS this season when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. The Bucks defensive play has left much to be desired of late as they’ve allowed 117.2 points per game while allowing their opponents to shoot 49.5% and convert on 38.5% of its 3-point shot attempts.

Utah has won 9 consecutive home games and that in itself gives the underdog Jazz ample betting value. Utah has outscored their opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game this season. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Milwaukee is a bankroll draining 11-27 ATS on the road when facing opponents with a +4.0 or greater point per game differential on the season. Utah won at Milwaukee 107-95 in late October. Give me Utah plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Texas Tech vs. Kansas 6:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: Texas Tech +2.5 (10*)

I may be in the minority when I say that Texas Tech is the overall better team in this matchup. I also like their chances of a deep NCAA Tournament run far better than that of the higher ranked Kansas Jayhawks. These teams split the 2 games during regular season action with the home side posting blowout victories on each occasion.

During their 2 Big 12 Tournament games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma the Texas Tech Red Riders have been dominant defensively. They held those opponents to only 48.0 points scored per contest and a mere 34.7% shooting. During their 2 regular season meetings versus Kansas, Texas Tech averaged 83.0 points scored per contest and shot an impressive 48.3%. Give me Texas Tech plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Miami vs. Duke 7:00 PM ET

Game# 863-864

Play On: Duke -8.5 (10*)

This is a Duke team which has shoot 48% or better in each of their last 6 games. Conversely, Miami has allowed its opponents to shoot 48% or better during 5 of its previous 6 contests. Duke will be playing with big time revenge stemming from a 76-74 home loss to Miami earlier this season in a game they closed as a 15.0-point favorite. The Blue Devils had a scare yesterday before pulling away late in a 9-point win over an undermanned Syracuse team that they blew out twice during regular season action. That’s not likely to occur again. Miami narrowly escaped with a 2-point overtime win over a hapless Boston College team in yesterday’s conference quarterfinals. Give me Duke minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame 7:00 PM ET

Game# 725-726

Play On: Virginia Tech -125 (10*)

Virginia Tech’s NCAA Tournament chances continue to be on life support after yesterday’s thrill buzzer beating 3-point shot in a 1-point win over Clemson. I look for them to carry that momentum into today. The Hokies are now 10-2 in their last 12 games. Since the start of last season, Virginia Tech is 3-0 SU in their games versus Notre Dame. Virginia Tech is an excellent defensive team that has allowed only 61.7 points per game. Conversely, Notre Dame is 1-7 SU this season versus opponents who allow 64 points or less per game. The Fighting Irish are also 0-3 SU&ATS in lined neutral site games this season. Barring something unforeseen, Notre Dame is a lock to make “The Big Dance”. On the other hand, Virginia tech needs at least 1 more if not 2 more wins in this ACC Tournament to possibly get there. I’m going with the team that will surely exhibit more desperation and urgency in this matchup. Give me Virginia Tech.

Atlanta @ Milwaukee 7:40 PM ET

Game# 507-508

Play On: Over 239.5 (10*)

This is certainly a high total even by modern day NBA standards. However, it’s for good reason and isn’t going to deter me from going over the number. Atlanta is coming off an under in their previous game. However, the Hawks have played 6-0 to the over during its last 6 following an under in their previous game. Additionally, those 6 contests produced a combined 242.5 points scored per game.

Milwaukee has played 13-3 to the over in their last 16 games. Furthermore, the Bucks have averaged 126.7 points scored per game throughout their previous 8 games and allowed 119.2 points per contests over its previous 11 contests.

To steal a boxing analogy, styles make fights. These 2 teams will produce a high scoring and extremely entertaining game tonight. Give me this contest to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga 9:00 PM ET

Game# 623-624

Play On: Gonzaga -12.5 (10*)

It’s apparent by current betting patterns that the public is wagering on St. Mary’s plus the sizable number like it’s an absolute cinch. After all, these teams just met on 2/28 in the regular season finale for both teams and St. Mary’s walked away with a convincing 10-point win as a 10.5-point home underdog. Additionally, the Gaels held Gonzaga to a season low 57 points and 36.7% shooting. I’m here to tell you that’s not happening again. Gonzaga was caught in a flat spot, and the Bulldogs will bounce back with vengeance tonight. The oddsmakers were certainly not deterred by that previous result based on the opening number of 13.5. Gonzaga will show their upper echelon class tonight in a revenge situation. Give me Gonzaga minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 8:30 PM ET

Game# 679-680

Play On: Texas A&M -2.0 (10*)

Mississippi State has gone a dismal 1-8 SU in SEC road games this season with their only win coming versus a Missouri team which has a poor 4-13 conference record and is 10-20 overall. The Bulldogs are coming off a disheartening home overtime loss to #5 Auburn that for all intent and purposes eliminated them from a possible at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs recovering emotionally from that loss just 3 days later. Furthermore, Mississippi State is 0-4 SU&ATS this season within the point-spread parameter of pick to +4.0.

Texas A&M starter the season 15-2 then proceeded to lose 8 straight games. Since that time, the Aggies have rebounded to win 4 of their last 5 and includes a present 3-0 SU&ATS run. As a matter of fact, Texas A&M is coming off a 10-point road win over #25 Alabama in a game they closed as a 16.0-point underdog. During their current 3-game winning run, the Aggies scored 84.7 points per contest and shot a blistering hot 55.8% from the field. Give me Texas A&M minus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Miami @ Brooklyn 7:30 PM ET

Game# 503-504

Play On: Over 221.5 (10*)

Miami will be playing with no rest after last night’s disheartening 1-point loss at Milwaukee. The Heat have played 9-1 to the over this season when playing on no rest. During their previous 5 games played, Miami has scored 118.0 points per contest, shot 47.3%, and made good on 38.3% of their 3-point attempts. They will be facing a Nets team that has allowed 122.2 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 51.2% and make an alarmingly high 42.4% of their 3-point shots over its last 5 contests. Brooklyn is coming off a 109-108 loss at Toronto and that game went under the total of 218.0. Brooklyn has played 12-2 to the over in its last 14 following an under in their previous game. Brooklyn has also permitted opponents to shoot 50%$ or better in 10 of their last 14 games. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Auburn @ Mississippi State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 711-712

Play On: Mississippi State +4.0 (10*)

Auburn has gone 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Their only 2 SU wins came against the 2 worst teams in the SEC in Missouri and Georgia. As a matter of fact, those 2 wins came by a combined 3 points and they were favorites of 14.0 and 14.5 in those contests. Conversely, Mississippi State has gone 7-1 SU in conference home games this season. The Bulldogs have shot 49% or better in each of their previous 5 at home. Give me Mississippi State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Providence @ Villanova 6:30 PM ET

Game# 605-606

Play On: Villanova -9.5 (10*)

We have the higher ranked team in #9 Providence (24-3) as close to a double-digit underdog against #11 Villanova (21-7). Just as I expected, public money has been overwhelmingly in favor of Providence. I seldom if ever go with what can be perceived as the obvious choice. This betting situation certainly qualifies in the regard. Furthermore, I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers more than those voters participating in the national polls. These teams met just 2 weeks ago at Providence and Villanova walked away with a 5-point win. This is one of those times that the revenge factor means very little to me. The Friars just don’t match up well against Villanova. I’m calling for a decisive win and cover by the home favorite Wildcats. Gove me Villanova minus the points for my Big East Game of the Year”.

Minnesota @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET

Game# 867-868

Play On: Cleveland +3.5 (10*)

Cleveland has won 8 straight home games, so they possess plenty of betting value as an underdog in this contest. Furthermore, they allowed less than 100 points in each of their previous 7 at home. Conversely, Minnesota has lost 7 consecutive away games when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Timberwolves have been dominated on the glass in their last 5 by an average of 9 rebound per game. Give me Cleveland plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Memphis @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET

Game# 527-528

Play On: Memphis +115 (10*)

Memphis enters today on a 2-game losing streak. The Grizzlies haven’t lost 3 consecutive games since 12/23/2021. Despite that mini slump, the Grizzlies are still an outstanding 22-6 in their last 28 games. Their most recent loss came at Minnesota. Memphis is an outstanding 8-1 SU this season following a road loss. These teams met once this season and Memphis walked away with a convincing 119-106 home win and covered as a sizable 9.0-point favorite. Chicago is on a 6-game win streak which includes their last 5 coming at home. Yet, the oddsmakers see this game as an even contest. That itself speaks volumes to me. Give me Memphis for a money line wager.

Auburn @ Tennessee 4:00 PM ET

Game# 659-660

Play On: Tennessee -3.5 (10*)

This line jumped right off the page to me since #3 Auburn comes up as an underdog versus #17 Tennessee. Especially when considering, if this game were being played at Auburn, the Tigers would only be no more than a 3.0 or 4.0-point favorite. Since Auburn was ranked #1 for a first time in program history in late January, they’ve been dominant at home but very beatable on the road. Specifically speaking, during that time span Auburn is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road. Additionally, their only 2 SU road wins in that stretch came over Missouri by 2 as a 14.0-points favorite and by 1 over Georgia as a 14.5-point chalk. Those 2 opponents are arguably the worst teams in the SEC this season. Conversely, Tennessee is a perfect 14-0 at home this season. The Volunteers are #36 nationally out of 358 Division 1 teams in terms of home court advantage. Tennessee is also #3 nationally in defensive efficiency in giving up just 87.9 points per their opponents 100 offensive possessions. Give me Tennessee minus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Dallas @ Utah 9:10 PM ET

Game# 513-514

Play On: Utah -5.5 (10*)

Utah has gone 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home versus Dallas. The Jazz are also 6-0 SU&ATS in their previous 6 at home and won by an average of 18.5 points per game. During that 6-game home win streak, Utah has held opponents to 99.2 points per game. Since the start of last season, Utah has gone 16-4 (80%) ATS in the month of February and outscored their opponents by 13.8 points per contest. Give me Utah minus the points for a Top Play wager.

LSU @ Kentucky 9:00 PM ET

Game# 737-738

Play On” Over 142.0 (10*)

LSU has played 7-1 to the over in their last 8 and that includes 4-0 over (145.5 PPG) on the road. Kentucky has played 6-0 to the over in their last 6 at home when there was a total of 141.5 or greater and a combined 163.7 points were scored per game. Kentucky is ranked #4 national in offensive efficiency while scoring 120.6 points per 100 offensive possessions. The last 5 Kentucky games have seen a combined average of 127 field goal attempts per game which equated to an extremely fast pace by college basketball standards. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Villanova @ Connecticut 8:00 PM ET

Game# 639-640

Play On: Over 136.5 (10*)

Villanova has played 7-1 to the over in conference away games this season and there was a combined average of 147.1 points scored per contest. The Wildcats have also gone over the total in 5 of its last 6 overall with a combined 152.0 points scored per game. Villanova averages 9 three-point makes per game this season. Conversely, Connecticut has played 7-1 to the over this season versus opponents that average 8 or more 3-point makes per contest and there was a combined 160.0 points scored per game. During the first meeting of the season, Villanova walked away with an 85-74 home win and that contest easily sailed over the total of 128.5. The adjustment has been made to their 2nd matchup, but it still won’t prevent this game from surpassing the number. Give me this game to go over the total as a Top Play wager.

Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt 6:00 PM ET

Game# 737-738

Play On: Vanderbilt -3.5 (10*)

Vanderbilt was very competitive in road losses at #2 Auburn and #19 Tennessee. They covered the Tennessee game and fell just short in a 14-point loss to Auburn as a 13.5-point underdog. The Commodores return home where they’ve won 3 straight and a much-improved team than we saw earlier this season. Conversely, Texas A&M started the season 15-2 and then since that time they’ve gone 1-8. Their lone victory in that sequence came by 1 at home over Florida. These are two teams heading in opposite directions. Give me Vanderbilt minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Towson State @ UNC-Wilmington 6:00 PM ET

Game# 743-744

Play On: NC-Wilmington +3.5 (10*)

NC-Wilmington continues to not get much respect from oddsmakers despite going 14-2 SU&ATS in their last 16 games versus Division 1 opponents. Furthermore, the Seawolves have gone a superb 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU in their last 9 as an underdog. Wilmington is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in lined home games this season, and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. Give me UNC-Wilmington plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Vanderbilt @ Auburn 9:00 ET

Game# 717-718

Play On: Over 143.0 (10*)

Vanderbilt has gone over the total in each of their last 5 contests. The Commodores shot a blistering hot 43.5% from 3-point territory throughout that 5-game stretch. Auburn is coming off a 75-58 home win over Texas A&M in a game that easily went under the totakl of 141.5. However, Auburn has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 following an under and there was a combined 152.0 points scored per game. Both teams have recently been great at getting to the foul line. Through each team’s previous 5 outings, Vandy averaged 23 free throw attempts per contest and Auburn did so 26 times per game. Conversely, during that identical 5-game stretch, both teams sent their opponents to the free throw line with almost identical frequency. Give me this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager.

Ohio State @ Michigan 6:00 PM ET

Game# 739-740

Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*)

My prediction is Michigan will be a heavily bet side in this matchup after their 82-58 home blowout over #3 Purdue on Thursday. It was far and away the best that Michigan has played all season. It would be a big ask to expect Michigan to turn in a similar dominating performance over another ranked team just 2 days later. It’s also unlikely the Wolverines will be able to match the emotion and laser like focus they displayed against Purdue. Conversely, #16 Ohio State will be in a sour mood after being upset 66-64 at Rutgers on Wednesday night. The good news for Buckeye backers is that their team is 5-0 SU this season following a loss. Give me Ohio State plus the small number for a Top Play wager.