Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-19-16 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 7.5) The books have set the total too high for Friday's NL East showdown between the Nationals and Braves. We have two starters who are both rolling at the moment. Washington's Tanner Roark has a 1.77 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Atlanta's Julio Teheran has a 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Roark owns a 1.77 ERA in 9 career starts against the Braves, while Teheran hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in 6 career home starts against the Nationals. UNDER is 22-9 in Washington's last 31 road games with a hot bullpen that as a WHIP under 1.000 in their last 5 games and 11-3 in Teheran's last 14 starts after a loss. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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08-18-16 | Astros v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Over/Under Game of the Month (UNDER 8.5) The books have set the total too high for Thursday's matchup between the Orioles and Astros. Houston will send out youngster Joe Musgrove, who has been sensational in his first two starts. Musgrove allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings at home against the Rangers and then allowed a mere 2 runs in 7 innings at Toronto. I'll take my chances on him shutting down another AL power tonight. Baltimore counters with Kevin Gausman. While he's 3-10 with a 4.04 ERA in 21 starts, he's been a completely different pitcher at home, where he's 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 8 starts. UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in Gausman's 8 starts this season with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs and 13-3 in the Orioles last 16 after scoring 1 run or less in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-17-16 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 8.5) The books have set the total too high for Wednesday's AL Central showdown between the Tigers and Royals. Detroit comes in struggling at the plate, scoring just 3.1 runs/game and hitting .241 as a team over their last 7 games. KC on the other hand is hitting just .248 as a team on the road this season. The Tigers will send out Anibal Sanchez. While he's coming off an ugly start at Texas, he was dominant in his previous two starts at home, giving up just 2 runs in 14 innings of work. Most importantly, he's got a 2.76 ERA in 11 career starts against the Royals. KC counters with the red-hot Yordano Ventura, who has a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Ventura has also pitched very well against Detroit, posting a 3.28 ERA in 8 career starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
50* MLB AL East Game of the Month (OVER 9.5) The books have set the mark to low for today's total between the Yankees and Blue Jays. Both offenses should have no problem putting up a big number in this one. New York sends out Chad Green, who has a 7.50 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in 3 starts. Toronto counters with R.A. Dickey, who has a 4.48 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 24 starts. Dickey has also been torched in his last two outings at Yankees Stadium, giving up 9 runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in 14 1/3 innings. OVER is 4-0 in Green's last 4 starts and 4-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts. Give me the OVER 9.5! |
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08-13-16 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 9.5) The books have set the total too low for today's showdown between the Royals and Twins. Both of these teams are poised for a big day at the plate given the starting pitching matchup. Kansas City will send out Dillon Gee, who has a 6.07 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 8 start. Minnesota counters with Tyler Duffey, who has a 5.93 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in 19 starts and has an ugly 7.22 ERA in 10 starts at home. OVER is 15-3 in the Twins 18 home games this season when listed as a favorite of -110 or more, 12-2 in their last 14 with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings in the last 3 games and 17-2 in their last 19 after playing 5 or more games at home. Give me the OVER 9.5! |
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08-12-16 | Angels v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 8.5) The books have set the total too high here for Friday's series matchup between the Indians and Angels. Cleveland will send out Carlos Carrasco, who has a strong 3.17 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 17 starts. He's also got a 2.05 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Angels and is coming in off a strong outing in his last start. LA counters here with Tyler Skaggs, who has pitched well in his 3 starts since joining the rotation, giving up just 4 runs over 17 2/3 innings of work. UNDER is 11-3 in the Angels last 14 after playing 6 or more straight games on the road and 4-0 in Carrasco's last 4 starts against the AL West. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-10-16 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 8) The books have set the total too high for Wednesday's NL Central clash between the Cardinals and Reds. This game has a pitchers duel written all over it. Cincinnati will send out talented youngster Anthony Desclafani, who is 6-0 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Desclafani has owned the Cardinals, going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 3 career starts. St Louis will counter here with Jamie Garcia, who has pitched his best at home this season and is coming off a great start at home against the Braves, allowing just 3 hits with 11 strikeouts in 8 shutout innings. UNDNER is 14-4 Garcia's last 18 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 an 12-2 in his last 14 home starts as a favorite of -150 or more. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-07-16 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 9.5) The books have set the total way too high for Sunday's series finale between the White Sox and Orioles. Baltimore will send out talented youngster Dylan Bundy, who has been getting better and better with each start. In his last outing, Bundy gave up just 1 hit in 7 innings. Chicago counters with veteran James Shields. He wasn't sharp in his last outing, but has been throwing the ball really well of late. Shields has given up 2 or less earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5! |
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08-02-16 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
50* MLB AL West Total of the Month (Under 8) The books have set to the total too high for tonight's matchup between the A's and Angels. The ball doesn't carry near as well at night in LA and we have two red-hot pitchers facing off in this one. Oakland's Sean Manaea has a 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while the Angel's Matt Shoemaker has a 2.91 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Shoemaker has also owned the A's in two starts against them this year, giving up just 1 earned run on 7 hits in 12 innings of work. Both of these teams have struggled offensively against right-handed starters. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-01-16 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER) The books have set the mark too high for Monday's showdown between the Padres and Brewers. The starting pitching matchup might not look like much on paper, but you have to keep in mind of where the game is being played. PETCO is one of the strongest pitcher parks int he big leagues and the wind will be blowing in from left. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson is more than capable of throwing a gem against this San Diego team that has been as active as any team during the trade deadline. Padres starter Jared Cosart came over in the Miami deal and this is a great chance for him to prove himself after spending most of the season in Triple A. He's facing a Milwaukee team that I could easily see not showing up for this game. The Brewers just played 10 straight at home, which they capped off with a 3-game sweep of division rival Pittsburgh. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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07-31-16 | Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8.5) The books have set the total too high for today's showdown between the Angels and Red Sox. Each of the first two games in this series have gone UNDER the mark set by the books and I expect that trend to continue. Boston will send out knuckleballer Steven Wright, who is 12-5 with a 3.12 ERA in 20 starts. He did have a poor showing last time out, but that's going to happen for a knuckleballer. He's got a 2.13 ERA in 9 road starts and is primed for a bounce back outing. Angels will counter with Tyler Skaggs, who was dominant in his first start of the season, allowing just 3 hits and walking only 1 in 7 shutout innings against the Royals. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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07-30-16 | Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
50* MLB AL Total of the Month (UNDER 8.5) The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's total between the Red Sox and Angels. Boston will send out the underrated Drew Pomeranz, who has a 2.84 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 19 starts, as well as a 2.32 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 9 road starts. After struggling in his first start with the Red Sox, Pomeranz was dominant in his last outing against Detroit. The Angels counter with Hector Santiago, who is on quite a roll at the moment. Santiago has a 2.60 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed a mere 5 runs total in his last 5 outings. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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07-29-16 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 8.5) The books have made a huge mistake here and set the total way too high for Friday's series opener between the Pirates and Brewers. We have two young starters on the mound in this one that are more than capable of shutting down the opposition. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra continues to be way undervalued due to pitching on a bad team. Guerra is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 15 starts and has an even better 2.42 ERA in 8 home starts. Pittsburgh counters with Steven Brault, who was sharp in his brief debut at St Louis, allowing just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 4 innings. While he might not go deep in this game, Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 2.92 ERA in 48 road games and will be rested after having yesterday off. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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07-28-16 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 7.5) The books have made a mistake here and set the bar too low for today's total between the Phillies and Braves. Both of these teams are coming off a strong showing at the plate yesterday. While Philadelphia only scored 1 run, they put up double-digit hits. Atlanta on the other hand scored 9 runs on 16 hits against the Twins. The key here is the pitching matchup. Neither starter is any good and both come in having struggled of late. Phillies send out Aaron Nola, who is 5-9 with a 4.92 ERA in 19 starts and has a 6.60 ERA in his last 3 outings. Braves counter with Matt Wisler, who is 4-10 with a 4.97 ERA in 19 starts and has a 9.98 ERA in his last 3 outings. Give me the OVER 7.5! |
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07-27-16 | Rockies v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 9) Two future aces take the mound in Wednesday's contest between the Rockies and Orioles. Colorado will send out Jon Gray, who has been lights out of late, posting a 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Baltimore counters with former top 5 pick Dylan Bundy, who is coming off a dominant outing in his home debut, allowing 0 earned runs on 5 hits and no walks in 5 innings of a 5-1 win over the Indians. UNDER is 31-19 in the Rockies last 50 road games and 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts. UNDER is also 8-0 in the Orioles last 8 against a team with a losing record and 7-0 in their last 7 home games. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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07-26-16 | Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 108 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 9) I think we are getting big time value here on the UNDER at 9 runs in Tuesday's matchup between the Cubs and White Sox. We have two under the radar starters taking the mound in this one. The Cubs' Kyle Hendricks owns a sensational 2.23 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 18 starts and has not given up an earned run in 3 straight outings. White Sox's James Shields is 4-12 with a ugly 4.99 ERA in 20 starts, but has been throwing like an ace of late. Shields has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has given up 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 5 outings. UNDER is 20-8 in Hendrick's last 28 starts in night games and 15-3 in the White Sox last 18 home games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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07-24-16 | Phillies v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8) I'll gladly back the UNDER here with the total sitting at 8 runs in Sunday's matchup between the Pirates and Phillies. We have two future aces facing off in this one, as Philadelphia sends out Vincent Velasquez against Pittsburgh's Jameson Taillon. Both come into this game in great form. Velasquez has a 2.37 ERA over his last 3 starts and Taillon has allowed just 1 run in each of his last two starts. UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams and 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 following a loss. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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07-23-16 | Indians v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Over/Under Game of the Month (Under 9) I really like the value here with the UNDER on tonight's high total of 9 between the Indians and Orioles. This is a much better pitching matchup than the books are giving credit for. Cleveland will send out Josh Tomlin, who continues to get no respect. Tomlin is now 10-2 with a 3.34 ERA in 17 starts and has a 2.44 ERA in 9 road starts. Baltimore counters with Kevin Gausman, who has pitched much better than his 1-7 record would indicate, especially at home, where he has a 2.79 ERA in 6 starts. In his last two home starts, Gausman has allowed 1 run on 11 hits in 13 2/3 innings of work. Indian's offense not near as potent on the road and are coming off a poor showing last night, scoring just 1 run. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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07-22-16 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8) We have two NL playoff contenders facing off tonight with the Dodgers and Cardinals and I look for a low scoring affair in this one. LA will give the ball to Brandon McCarthy, who has been lights out since joining the rotation earlier this month. In 3 starts, he's posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.750 WHIP. All 3 of those starts have seen the game go UNDER the total and I like the chances of that streak continuing here. St Louis counters with Michael Wacha, who is poised for a strong outing. Wacha hasn't been great, but at the same time he's not allowed more than 3 earned runs in 7 straight starts. He's also got a really strong 2.08 ERA in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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07-17-16 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8) The books have set the total too high for Sunday's showdown between the Blue Jays and A's. Two strong starters are one the mound in Oakland, as the A's send out Rich Hill against Toronto's J.A. Happ. Hill is 9-3 with a 2.25 ERA in 13 starts and Happ is 12-3 with a 3.36 ERA in 18 starts. UNDER is 12-1 in Hill's last 13 starts in July and 18-9 in the Blue Jays last 27 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.200. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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07-16-16 | Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
50* AL East Game of the Month (Under 8.5) The books have set the total too high for Saturday's contest between the Orioles and Rays. We have two strong starters on the mound who both were in prime form going into the All-Star break. Baltimore's Chris Tillman is 12-2 with a 3.41 ERA in 19 starts and has a 2.89 ERA over his last 3 outings. Tampa Bay will send out Matt Moore, who has a strong 3.57 ERA in 11 home starts and a 1.83 ERA over his last 3. UNDER is 11-1 this season when the Rays are listed as a home underdog of +100 to +125. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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07-15-16 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8.5) The books have set the total way too high for Friday's matchup between the Indians and Twins. Both of these teams will send out starters who were straight dealing going into the All-Star break. Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco posted a 1.59 ERA and 1.059 WHIP over his last 3 starts and has a 1.81 ERA in 6 road outings this season. Minnesota's Ervin Santana had a 1.33 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in his last 3 starts, including a complete game shutout in his last outing at home against the A's. Santana has also allowed just 2 runs total in his last two starts against the Indians. Take the UNDER! |
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07-09-16 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8.5) Love the value here we are getting with the total for Saturday's matchup between the Dodgers and Padres sitting at 8.5. Los Angeles will send out Brandon McCarthy, who was sensational in his first outing of the season, giving up just 2 hits and 1 walk with 8 strikeouts over 5 shutout innings. Even if he doesn't pitch deep into the game, the Dodgers back him up with a bullpen that has a 2.24 ERA at home on the season. The Padres will send out Luis Perdomo, who is poised for a strong outing. Perdomo has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts, but those have come in 3 hitters parks against the Orioles, Reds and Diamondbacks. This will be the first time the Dodgers have seen him as a starter and that should work to his advantage. Padres hitting just .234 against right-handed starters and LA hitting just .234 at home. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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07-08-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
50* NL West Play of the Month (Under 7.5) Giants' AT&T Park is considered a pitchers park, but the hitters figure to do some damage in this one. The wind will be blowing straight out to right center and we have two starters who are struggling heading into the All-Star break. San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija has a 8.82 ERA and 1.592 WHIP over his last 3 starts and Arizona's Pat Corbin has a 5.63 ERA and 1.876 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Adding even more value here is the fact that the hitters for both teams just saw both of these starters this past Saturday. It's also worth noting that the OVER is 5-1 in Samardzija's 6 home starts. Give me the OVER 7.5! |
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07-07-16 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8) I believe we are getting a great number here to back the UNDER in today's matchup between the Astros and A's. Houston will send out Doug Fister, who is coming off a couple of poor starts, but has owned Oakland this season. He's faced them twice and allowed a total of 1 run on 11 hits in 12 2/3 innings of work. Fister is also facing an A's team that was just shutout yesterday and hitting a mere .217 over their last 7 games. Oakland counters with Rich Hill, who didn't miss a beat in his first start after coming back from the DL. Hill is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 12 starts and has a dominant 1.40 ERA in 6 road starts. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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07-02-16 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8) Love the value here with the total going under the posted mark of 8 for today's afternoon matchup between the Astros and White Sox. Chicago will have their ace Chris Sale on the mound, who is 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA in 8 road starts and 4-1 with a 0.66 ERA over 5 career starts against the Astros. Houston will send out underrated starter Doug Fister, who has a 3.36 ERA in 15 starts. Both teams have struggled offensively in day games. Houston is hitting just .235 as a team and the White Sox are hitting just .243. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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07-01-16 | Reds v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
50* NL Total of the Month (UNDER 9) I believe we are catching an inflated total here. Cincinnati and Washington combined for 17 runs yesterday with the Nationals doing the heavy lifting with 13 runs of their own. I don't think Washington is going to have as easy time scoring runs here against the Reds Anthony Desclafani. He's quietly posted a 1.52 ERA in 4 starts and is coming off his best outing, allowing just 5 hits over 8 scoreless innings against the Padres at home. I don't see Cincinnati doing a whole lot offensively either. The Nationals send out underrated starter Tanner Roark, who has a 2.96 ERA in 16 starts overall and a 2.25 ERA in 7 starts at home. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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06-30-16 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8) I really like the value here on the total in today's matchup between the Dodgers and Brewers. This is a getaway game for both teams, as LA will be headed back home after a 7-game road trip and Milwaukee is heading to St Louis after playing their previous 6 at home. I don't look for either team to be all that focused on the game today and even if they were runs figure to be hard to come by. Dodgers will send out Kenta Maeda, who has a 2.91 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 15 starts, including a 2.79 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 7 road starts. Brewers will counter with Zach Davies, who has a 3.11 ERA at home and 2.00 ERA over his last 3 outings. It's also worth noting that today's umpire is Tom Hallion. He's been behind the plate 14 times this season and 11 of those have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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06-27-16 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 7.5) Love the value we are getting here with the total sitting at 7.5 runs for today's matchup between the Nationals and Mets. Both of these teams are really struggling offensively at the moment. The Mets are averaging 2.9 runs/game and hitting a mere 1.94 as a team over their last 7 games. Washington isn't much better. They too are averaging just 2.9 runs/game and hitting only .248 as a team over their last 7. Both teams will send out quality starters. New York gives the ball to Noah Syndergaard, who is 8-2 with a 2.10 ERA in 14 starts. The Nationals counter with Joe Ross, who is 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA in 14 starts. Syndergaard has a 1.33 ERA in 4 career starts against Washington and Ross has a 2.84 ERA in 2 starts against the Mets. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-26-16 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 8 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8) Oddsmakers have simply set the total too high for Sunday's game between the Tigers and Indians. Detroit will send out Justin Verlander, who has been sensation after a rocky start to the year. Verlander has a 3.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's pitching into the 7th of each of his last 9 starts, in which he allowed 3 or less runs 7 times. Cleveland will counter with Josh Tomlin, who continues to be undervalued. Tomlin is 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 13 starts. He's been at his best at home, where his ERA is just 2.63. He's faced the Tigers twice already this season and was dominant in both outings. Both teams are going to struggle to score runs in this one. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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06-22-16 | Royals v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
50* MLB Early Bird Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 6.5) I've got no problem playing the Under with the low total of 6.5 in today's afternoon matchup between the Royals and Mets. Both of these offenses come in struggling at the plate. The Royals have scored just 3 runs in their last 2 games and the Mets have scored just 2 in their last 2. It's hard to imagine either offense getting on track with the starting pitching matchup we have going in this one. New York will give the ball to Noah Syndergaard, who is 7-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 13 starts. He allowed 2 or less runs in 8 straight starts. KC will counter with Danny Duffy, who has a solid 3.25 ERA in 7 starts, including a 1.08 ERA in 3 starts on the road and a 0.00 ERA in 3 day starts. Give me the UNDER 6.5! |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 208 | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 208) The last two games have gone OVER the total and I believe it's created some great value here on the UNDER in Game 7. These do or die games are typically lower-scoring than people expect, as there's a tremendous amount of pressure on both teams and the defensive intensity is at an all-time high. Cleveland did put up 108 in Game 5 at Golden State, but keep in mind that was with Green sidelined. James and Irving also played out of their minds, scoring 41 a piece and shooting over 60% from the field. I don't see those two matching that in Game 7. While the Cavs offense doesn't figure to be as good, their defense has been great over the last 4 games and I don't see that changing in this one. Give me the UNDER 208! |
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06-19-16 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8.5) I really like the UNDER in today's series finale between the Reds and Astros. Cincinnati will be sending out Brandon Finnegan, who has been lights out of late. Finnegan has a 1.86 ERA in his last 3 starts and also owns a 2.98 ERA in 7 road starts. Houston counters with Michael Fiers, who is also in good form with a 3.44 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Fiers has also been at his best at home, where he has a 3.67 ERA in 7 starts (4.78 ERA overall). UNDER is 9-1 in Houston's last 10 overall and 10-4 in their last 14 interleague home games against a left-handed starter. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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06-17-16 | Giants v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 7.5) I really like the value we are getting here with the total sitting at 7.5 in today's showdown between Chris Archer of the Rays and Jeff Samardzija of the Giants. Archer has had a disappointing overall season so far in 2016, as he's just 4-8 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 starts. However, he's been dominant at home, where his ERA is just 2.33. In his last start, at home, he held the Astros to just 3 runs on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings of work. Samardzija was able to bounce back from a couple of poor outings with a solid showing in his last start against the Dodgers and comes in with a respectable 3.36 ERA in 13 starts. I'll take my chances on him keeping a Tampa Bay offense that is scoring just 3.5 runs/game and hitting .224 as a team at home in check. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 207.5 | 101-115 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 207.5) I wasn't the least bit surprised to see Game 5 go over the total, as the loss of Draymond Green was going to tough for the Warriors to overcome on the defensive side of the ball. It definitely played a big role in James and Irving going off for a combined 82 points. I look for things to come a lot harder for Cleveland's 1-2 punch and the Cavs should play some pretty solid defense of their own at home. I see a very similar type of pace to Game 4 in Cleveland, which went under the same total of 207.5. Give me the UNDER 207.5! |
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06-16-16 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 7.5) The UNDER is worth a look here in Thursday's matchup between the Tigers and Royals. Detroit's Justin Verlander has been pitching like an ace over his last 7 starts. During this stretch, he's only given up a mere 30 hits with 57 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings. He's enjoyed facing KC over his career, as he's 20-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 38 career starts against them. The Royals will send out Danny Duffy, who has a 2.45 ERA and 0.982 WHIP over his last 3 starts and was dominant in his last outing, giving up just 3 hits with 10 strikeouts in 6 scoreless innings. Duffy has a 2.95 ERA in 11 career starts against the Tigers. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 204.5 | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 204.5) I know that each of the first two games in Golden State finished below the total set and 3 of the 4 have gone UNDER in the series, but without Draymond Green in the lineup for the Warriors in Game 5, I'm expecting a spark in scoring. Even without Green the Warriors have enough weapons offensively to score 100+. It's his defensive presence, most notably on James, that will hurt them. I Cleveland also seemed to figure out some things at home that are working on the offensive end. Give me the OVER 204.5! |
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06-13-16 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 108 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 7) Washington will have their ace Max Scherzer on the mound, while the Cubs send out one of the most underrated starters in baseball in Kyle Hendricks. In fact, most would be surprised to see that Hendricks has the better overall numbers in this matchup. He's got a 2.77 ERA and 0.922 WHIP in 11 starts. Scherzer has a 3.57 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 13 starts. However, Scherzer has been throwing like a Cy Young candidate of late, posting a 2.86 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I look for both offenses to struggle to score in this one. Give me the UNDER 7! |
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06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 207 | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 207) After going well below the total in the first two games, the Cavs and Warriors eclipsed the mark set of 206 in Game 3 with a 210 points. That was with Cleveland scoring 120 points. Golden State simply didn't show up to play and basically threw in the towel in the 2nd half of that contest. I look for a completely different Warriors team to take the floor after getting embarrassed by 30-points. Keep in mind they held Cleveland to just 89 points on 38.1% shooting in Game 1 and 77 points on 35.4% shooting in Game 2. The defensive intensity is going to be there for both teams tonight and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw the lowest scoring game of the series so far. Either way the total is too high. Give me the UNDER 207! |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 205 | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (OVER 205) Each of the first two games in this series have gone well below the total. As a result, oddsmakers have adjusted. The total for game 1 was 211.5 points, now it's just 205. The key here is we are getting a change of scenery with the series shifting to Cleveland. The Cavaliers were pathetic on offense in Golden State, but I look for them to come to life at home. Golden State's offense travels well and the defensive intensity for the Warriors isn't going to be as strong on the road, especially with a 2-0 lead in the series. Forget who will cover the spread. Give me the OVER 205! |
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06-07-16 | G2 New York Mets v. G2 Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 7.5) I'm expecting a pitchers duel in the nightcap of today's double-header between the Mets and Pirates. New York will give the ball to Jacob deGrom, who has a 2.62 ERA in 9 starts and is in good form with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Pirates counter with Juan Nicasio. He's got a less than impressive 4.25 ERA overall, but has a dominant 2.54 ERA in 5 home starts. Look for both teams to rest some regulars in this one, making it that much easier on these two starters. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 218 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Under 218) The UNDER is worth a look in tonight's highly anticipated Game 7 between the Thunder and Warriors. So far the UNDER has cashed in 4 of the 6 games. These two teams are very familiar with one another buy now and we know we are going to get a max effort here defensively. Golden State has adjusted and started playing a bigger lineup, which takes away from their offense. Add in the pressure of a Game 7 and the potential for Golden State to turn this into a blowout and I see big time value here with this high total. Give me the UNDER 218! |
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05-27-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 2-7 | Win | 102 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
40* MLB Late Night Total Annihilator (OVER 7.5) I really like the OVER in tonight's contest between the Astros and Angels. Houston's Michael Fiers comes in with a solid 3.37 ERA over his last 3 starts, but all 3 of those outings came at home. He's not been so good on the road, where he has a 5.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 2 starts. LA will send out Matt Shoemaker, who is coming off a rare good start last time out against the Orioles. Even after throwing 7 scoreless innings against Baltimore, Shoemaker still has an awful 8.31 ERA and 1.731 WHIP at home. Give me the OVER 7.5! |
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05-27-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196.5 | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Dominator (OVER 196.5) Typically when we get this deep in a series the value is with the UNDER, but I don't believe that's the case at all in Game 6 tonight between the Raptors and Cavaliers. I know Cleveland struggled offensively in their two previous games in Toronto, but when locked in they have picked apart the Raptors defense. I look for the Cavs to have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark in this one and Toronto should provide enough here offensively playing at home to push this well over the mark set. Give me the OVER 196.5! |
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05-24-16 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 222 | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total No Brainer (UNDER 222) I was on the OVER when it cashed in Game 3, but the value is now with the UNDER. This is arguably the biggest game of the series for both teams and that's going to lead to an all out effort on the defensive side of the floor. If the Warriors win, they take back control of the series. If the Thunder win, they have a commanding 3-1 lead, needing just 1 more win to advance to the Finals. Golden State isn't going to let OKC go off like they did in Game 3 and this one should be on line with Game 1 and 2, which saw 210 and 209 combined points. Give me the UNDER 222! |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder OVER 220.5 | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (OVER 220.5) Each of the first two games in the series have gone under the mark and we have seen the total drop considerably since Game 1 closed at 225. I believe that's created some value here on the OVER in Game 3, as the series shifts to OKC. The Warriors are going to get there's offensively and the Thunder should have a much easier time keeping pace on their home floor, where they are averaging 109.0 ppg on the season. OVER is 19-4 in the Warriors last 23 off a home win by 20 or more points and 8-2 in the Thunders last 10 after failing to cover their last game. Give me the OVER 220.5! |
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05-22-16 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -122 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 7.5) The UNDER is worth a look here, as we should have a low-scoring game this afternoon between the Nationals and Marlins. Washington will send out Max Scherzer, who is looking more and more like his old self with each start. Scherzer followed up his 20 strikeout performance with another great outing, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits with 10 K's in 6 1/3 innings at New York. Miami will counter with Adam Conley, who has a respectable 3.40 ERA in 8 starts and a 2.94 ERA over his last 3. UNDER is 9-1-2 in Scherzer's last 12 starts during game 3 of a series and 16-5 in Washington's last 21 road games against a team with a losing home record. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 198.5 | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 198.5) Game 2 was fortunate to go UNDER the total and that's going to have most looking to take the OVER in Game 3, but I think this will be the lowest scoring game of the series. With Toronto down 0-2 and returning home for the first time in the series, we can expect the Raptors to lay everything on the line and that means all out defensive effort. Cleveland is due for a bad showing offensively and with complete control in the series, I look for the Cavs offense to stumble a bit here. At the same time, Cleveland seems to be locked in defensively in the postseason and I expect another strong effort from them on that side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 198.5! |
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05-15-16 | A's v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 7.5) I really like the value we are getting with this total between the Rays and A's on Sunday. Oakland will have their ace Sonny Gray on the mound, who is coming off back-to-back bad outings. That is definitely playing a part in this high total, but I believe he poised for a big bounce back performance. He's definitely got the stuff and he's pitched well against the Rays in his career, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 5 starts. Tampa Bay will give the ball to Matt Moore, who has pitched well for the most part this season. Moore has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his 7 starts. UNDER is 12-1 in the Rays 13 games this season after a win, 16-4 in their last 20 against a right-handed starter and 14-5 in their last 19 at home. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-12-16 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (Under 8) I'm taking the UNDER in Thursday's total between the Padres and Brewers. The books have simply set the mark too high for today's pitching matchup. San Diego will send out their ace James Shields, who despite a 1-5 record has a 3.60 ERA with 5 quality starts in 7 appearances. Milwaukee will give the ball to their ace in Jimmy Nelson, who has been especially tough to score on at home. Nelson is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in his last 12 outings at Miller Park. It's also worth pointing out that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Padres last 11 after playing 2 or more consecutive games on the road. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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05-11-16 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 5-6 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
40* MLB Over/Under Total Dominator (UNDER 7) Today's matchup between the Rays and Mariners has a pitchers duel written all over it. Tampa Bay will send out their ace Chris Archer, who has been lights out of late. Archer has a 0.96 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been dominant in the early goings of 2016. Walker owns a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 6 starts. Walker has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in an outing this year. UNDER is 15-3 in the Rays' 18 games this season against a right-handed starter and 5-0-1 in Walker's last 6 starts. Give me the UNDER 7! |
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05-10-16 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
40* MLB Late Night Total No Brainer (Mets/Dodgers UNDER 7.5) The books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Dodgers and Mets. New York will send out one of their talented youngsters in Jacob deGrom, who has a 1.99 ERA in 4 starts. The Dodgers will give the ball to Alex Wood, who is keeping this total higher than it should be. Wood has a 5.18 ERA and 1.485 WHIP overall in 6 starts, but owns a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his 2 starts at home. The Mets are also scoring just 2.2 runs/game against left-handed starters this season. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-06-16 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 199.5 | 121-108 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (UNDER 199.5) The Cavaliers exploded for 123 points in Game 2, pushing the combined total well over the mark of 196. I believe that has created some great value here on the UNDER in Game, as the series shifts to Atlanta. Cleveland simply couldn't miss from the outside in Game 2, as they hit a NBA Playoff record 25 3-pointers. Over half the Cavs shots (45 of 87) were from long-distance and that's simply not a recipe for success, especially on the road. You also have to factor in that Atlanta is going to lay everything they have on the line defensively to avoid falling behind 0-3 in the series. I don't think Cleveland's defensive intensity will be lacking either. The Cavs are a team on a mission in the postseason. Give me the UNDER! |
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05-04-16 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 198.5 | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total No Brainer (UNDER 198.5) Game 1 of the Hawks/Cavs series went UNDER the total, as the two teams combined for 197 points. I expect an even lower scoring game in Game 2, as the Hawks know they have to slow down the tempo to have any chance of evening up the series at 1-1. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league when they want to be and now that they have an understand of what the other team wants to do offensively, I look for both offenses to struggle even more than they did in the series opener. UNDER is 10-1 in Cleveland's last 11 when playing only their 5th game in 14 or less days, 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points. Give me the UNDER 198.5! |
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05-03-16 | Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total No Brainer (Red Sox/White Sox UNDER 8) Two of baseballs most efficient starters will face off on Tuesday in Chicago and my money is on this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston's Steven Wright has a 1.37 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 4 starts, while the White Sox's Jose Quintana has a 1.47 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 5 starts. Quintana has yet to allow a run at home this season and has given up zero runs in his last 2 starts overall. UNDER is 25-9 in Chicago's last 34 home games after a win and 14-2 in Quintana's last 16 starts after 2 or more wins. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-27-16 | White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
40* MLB Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 8) The fact that this game is being played at Toronto's Rogers Centre has created some great value here on the total, as the books have inflated this line because of where the game is being played. What matters is the starting pitching matchup and we have a good one here with Jose Quintana going up against Marco Estrada. Quintana has a 1.82 ERA and 1.094 WHIP over 4 starts and Estrada enters with a 2.50 ERA in 3 starts and has yet to allow a run at home. UNDER is 12-3 in Estrada's last 15 starts after a loss and 13-2 in Quintana's last 15 starts after 2 or more wins. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-24-16 | Orioles v. Royals OVER 9 | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (OVER 9) There's a reason the books have set a big number here on the total in the series finale between the Orioles and Royals. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left at around 20 mph. Normal pop flies are going to turn into home runs and I look for both teams to put big numbers on the scoreboard. It certainly helps that we have two offenses that are more than capable of scoring runs in bunches. Baltimore comes in averaging 6.0 runs/game on the road and have power hitters littered throughout their lineup. The Royals on the other hand should be able to take advantage of the Orioles' Mike Wright, who comes in with a 5.73 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. Wright has made one career start against KC and allowed 4 runs in just 5 innings of work. Give me the OVER 9! |
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04-22-16 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 201.5 | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Annihilator (UNDER 201.5) These two teams combined for just 171 points in Game 2 and I look for a similar low scoring contest in Game 3. The loss of Avery Bradley is big on the defensive end, but it's even bigger on the offensive end. Boston has shot 36.3% and 31.8% from the field in the first two games. Atlanta hasn't been much better at 40.7% and 39.0%. I look for the Celtics offensive woes to continue and with them down 0-2 in the series we can expect a max effort on the defensive side of the floor. Give me the UNDER 201.5! |
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04-19-16 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8 | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 8) I really like the value here with the total in Tuesday's series opener between the Royals and Tigers. Detroit's Shane Greene was sharp in his first outing, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 6 innings at Pittsburgh and has a 0.69 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Royals. Kansas City will send out Yordano Ventura, who has a 2.45 ERA in 2 starts, allowing just 3 runs on 6 hits in 11 innings of work. In Ventura's last two starts against Detroit, he's allowed just 1 run on 7 hits with 19 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-17-16 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 199.5 | Top | 91-123 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 199.5) I'm expecting a very low scoring game here between the Hornets and Heat in Game 1 of this opening round series. Both of these teams rank inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency and are each in the bottom half of the league in pace. With the way teams turn up the intensity on the defensive side of the ball in the playoffs, points are going to be hard to come by for both teams. It's also worth noting that 3 of the 4 meetings between these two teams resulted in a combined score of 198 or less. Give me the UNDER 199.5! |
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04-13-16 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 7.5) While this isn't a high-profile pitching matchup, I don't expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one. The Phillies will be sending out Jerad Eickhoff, who didn't have his best stuff and still only gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Keep in mind Eickhoff allowed just 3 earned runs over his final 4 starts of 2015 and pitched at least 7 innings in all 4 outings. He takes on a San Diego offense that has already been shutout 4 times this season. The Padres give the ball to Colin Rea, who was tagged for 5 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in his first start, but that came at Coors Field against the Rockies. I look for a big bounce back performance here from Rea against the soft-hitting Phillies. Philadelphia has scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their first 8 games and are hitting just .224 as a team. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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04-09-16 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 7 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 7) I look for a low scoring game here between the Rangers and Angels. Both teams will send out their aces in this one. Both pitched well in their first start, but the real key here is how they have dominated the opposing team in this series. Cole Hamels has a 2.81 ERA and 0.688 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Angels, while Garrett Richards has a 2.98 ERA and 1.237 WHIP over 14 starts against the Rangers. Give me the UNDER 7! |
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04-01-16 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 207.5 | 110-108 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 207.5) I'm expecting both teams to come out extremely motivated, as this is a statement game for both teams. There's a good chance that these two teams meet in the playoffs, so each will be looking to send the other a message. When Cleveland decides it wants to play, they can be a dominant defensive team and Atlanta has been playing exceptional on the defensive end for quite an extended stretch. The Hawks have held 5 straight opponents to 45% or worse from the field and are only giving up 97.6 ppg at home. UNDER is 17-7 in Cavs last 24 as a road dog and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-2 in Atlanta's last 9 at home and 4-0 in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 207.5! |
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04-01-16 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 202 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NBA No-Doubt Total Annihilator (UNDER 202) I'm not expecting either team to crack 100-points in this one, making this any easy play on the UNDER with the total sitting over 200. New York is really struggling on the offensive end right now, as they have scored 93, 91 and 89 over their last 3 games. That doesn't figure to get any better with Kristaps Porzingis not expected to play. New York may also be without point guard Jose Calderon. Brooklyn will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights, so the legs simply aren't going to be there on the jump shots and should also have them looking to slow down the pace. New York doesn't like to push the pace either, so possessions will be limited. Give me the UDNER 202! |
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03-31-16 | Nuggets v. Pelicans UNDER 209 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
50* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Top Play (UNDER 209) The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's matchup between the Pelicans and Nuggets. It's well known that New Orleans is missing basically their entire starting lineup and then some due to injuries. That's had a huge impact on their offensive production, as they are averaging a mere 93.0 ppg over their last 5, well below their season average of 102.6. Denver isn't a great defensive team, but I do expect them to play hard, as they continue to cling on to the slim hope that they can make the playoffs. At the same time, Denver figures to play at a much slower tempo than normal. The Nuggets are not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. I know this total has dropped quite a bit, but I still recommend the UNDER at the current line of 206.5 and will continue to recommend it unless noted here. Give me the UNDER 209! |
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03-28-16 | Thunder v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 119-100 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 211) Both the Raptors and Thunder have been playing well on the defensive side of the ball coming into this game. Oklahoma City is allowing just 99.6 ppg over their last 5, while the Raptors are only giving up 97.0 ppg in their last 5. Both teams should bring the defensive intensity, given this is a big time matchup between two of the top teams in the league. UNDER is 15-5 in OKC's last 20 after scoring 110+ points in 3 straight games and 19-9 in their last 28 against the east. UNDER is 12-2 in the Raptors last 14 after a combined score of 105 or more in 2 straight games and 12-3 in their last 15 home games after 2 straight games where they made 9 or more 3-point shots. Give me the UNDER 211! |
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03-08-16 | Wizards v. Blazers OVER 214 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Over 214) I don't see either team bringing the defensive intensity in this one. Washington comes in giving up 105.0 ppg on the road. I look for them to come out flat after a 2-day break and having to travel across the country for this matchup. Portland on the other hand will be returning home after a 6-game road trip and have a huge game on deck at Golden State. The Blazers have allowed 100+ in 10 of their last 12, including 116 or more in each of their last 3. OVER is 21-7 in the Wizards last 28 games when playing with 2 days of rest and 11-5 in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 10-4 in the Blazers last 14 after a SU loss, 8-1 in their last 9 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the OVER 214! |
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03-04-16 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 210 | 115-117 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 210) Portland scored just 93 points at Boston last time out and I look for the offensive struggles to continue. The Trail Blazers simply don't have any gas left in the tank, which is going to force them to play at a slower tempo than normal. Portland will be playing their 5th road game in the last 7 days. Keep in mind Toronto only gives up 96.6 ppg at home. I look for the intensity defensively to be there for both teams, which should have this going well below the mark. UNDER is 36-16 in the Raptors last 52 home ames with a total of 210 or more and 8-3 in the Blazers last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Give me the UNDER 210! |
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02-26-16 | Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 204 | Top | 96-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Game of the Month (UNDER 204) These two teams just played on 2/10, which the Hornets won 117-95 to send the game over the posted total of 201.5. Keep in mind that was the final game before the All-Star break for both teams and defense wasn't a priority with the long layoff on deck. Prior to giving up 114 in a loss to the Cavaliers last time out, Charlotte was allowing just 94.8 ppg over their previous 8 games. Indiana is a more than capable team defensively when they want to be and I'm confident the Pacers bring the intensity in this one. The average combined score in the Pacers last 93 games when revenging a home loss of 10 or more is 190.6. Give me the UNDER 204! |
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02-25-16 | Nets v. Suns OVER 208 | 116-106 | Win | 103 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total CRUSHER (Nets/Suns OVER 208) Both the Nets and Suns are simply playing out the season at this point, as the two combined have an overall record of 29-85. There's ZERO motivation here for either team to exert themselves on the defensive end and that should have this game flying over the total. Brooklyn comes in allowing 103.6 ppg and the Suns are even worse, giving up 107.4 ppg. Key here is both offenses are playing well at the moment. Nets are averaging 100.8 ppg over their last 5 and Phoenix is averaging 101.0 ppg over their last 5. Give me the OVER 208! |
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02-22-16 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 199 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NBA Blockbuster Total Crusher (Pacers/Heat U 199) I think we are seeing a big overreaction with the total here. Both teams have scored 100+ points in each of their first two games back from the All-Star break and not one of their games saw a combined score less than the 199 total we see here. These two teams combined for 203 points in the most recent meeting, but that game went into overtime. The total for that game was just 193.5 and was also played in Miami and keep in mind that both teams shot under 40% from the field. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 4 days and the Heat potentially without Dwayne Wade (already missing Chis Bosh), I look for both offenses to struggle and this game to turn into a defensive showdown. UNDER is 38-15-1 in the Heat's last 54 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous game and 35-15-1 in their last 51 after they scored 100+ in their last game. Give me the UNDER! |
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02-04-16 | Rockets v. Suns UNDER 214 | 111-105 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Late Night TNT Total Crusher-- (UNDER 214) I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that the Rockets have gone OVER the total in 6 straight games and this figuring to be a highly bet game in the second matchup of tonight's TNT double-header. Phoenix isn't exactly an opponent to get excited about playing and I just don't see the Rockets being all that motivated in this one. At the same time, the Suns are a limited offensive team right now with Bledsoe and Knight both out and know they can't get into a shootout with the Rockets. I look for Phoenix to bring the defensive intensity in a rare primetime home game on TNT. Keep in mind Phoenix has scored 100 or less in 4 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. Also, only 1 of those 9 games finished with more than the total set here and that was 216 points on the road against the 76ers. Give me the UNDER 214! |
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02-01-16 | Pistons v. Nets UNDER 202 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
50* NBA --Guaranteed Hardwood Top Play-- (Pistons/Nets UNDER 202) I think we are seeing some great value here with this total. Detroit is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games against the Cavaliers (106-114) and Raptors (107-111), both of which resulted in losses. I look for the Pistons to come out with a different mentality on the defensive end in this one and they should have no problem keeping a mediocre at best Brooklyn offense in check. The Nets scored 103 against the Pelicans last time out, but that's only the 5th time in their last 15 games they have eclipsed the century mark (scored just 79 the previous game against Dallas). UNDEr is 18-4 in the Nets last 22 off a loss by 6 or less and 20-9 in the Pistons last 29 road games after playing their previous game on the road. Give me the UNDER! |
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01-31-16 | Celtics v. Magic UNDER 205 | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (Under 205) The Celtics and Magic just played in Boston on Friday and the two teams combined for 207 points, barely eclipsing the total of 205.5. Now they meet again in Orlando with a similar total of 205, which I feel is a big mistake by the books. I don't see the Celtics being as interested in this game after just beating Orlando, while I look for the Magic to come out as motivated as we have seen them all season. Both teams understand what the other is trying to do offensively and the more familiar an opponent is with a team the bigger the advantage for the defense. UNDER is 9-1 in the Magic's last 10 home games after going over the total in their last game and 15-5 in their last 20 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Give me the UNDER 205! |
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01-26-16 | Magic v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 100-107 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (Magic/Bucks UNDER 196.5) Orlando is a team that has continued to play hard despite their poor stretch here of late and are coming into this game off back-to-back heartbreaking overtime losses to the Hornets on Friday and Grizzlies last night. The Magic are a team that doesn't like to play fast as it is and simply won't have a choice but to slow the tempo way down given their tired legs. At the same time, I look for Milwaukee to come out with a strong defensive intensity at home after back-to-back losses on the road, but they too are limited offensively and like to play at a slow pace. UNDER is 23-9 in the Magic's last 32 road games after allowing 105 points. Give me the UNDER 196.5! |
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01-24-16 | Thunder v. Nets UNDER 206.5 | 106-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 206.5) The books have set the bar too high for today's total between the Nets and Thunder. Oklahoma City will be playing their 6th game in 10 days, so the energy isn't going to be there when it comes to pushing the pace. Brooklyn also isn't a team that gets opposing teams excited to play. I look for the Nets to come out motivated off an ugly 22-point home loss to the Jazz. Key here is that even with Brooklyn coming to play, they still have little to no chance of keeping this game close and simply don't have the offensive fire-power for this one to end up being a shootout. Give me the UNDER 206.5! |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 15-49 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 38 m | Show |
50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Panthers/Cardinals UNDER 47.5) So much attention is being paid to Cam Newtown and Carson Palmer with these two high-powered offenses, but I believe it will be the defenses that take over this game. Keep in mind these are two of the best defenses the NFL has to offer. Arizona ranks 7th in scoring defense (19.6 ppg) and 5th in total defense (321.7) ypg). Carolina is 6th in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 6th in total defense (322.9 ypg). The pressure of knowing that a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line will likely have both offenses a bit jittery early in this one and keep in mind that conditions are going to be less than ideal. UNDER is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 against a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the UNDER 47.5! |
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01-22-16 | Clippers v. Knicks UNDER 205 | 116-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (Clippers/Knicks UNDER 205) I believe we are seeing an inflated total here in tonight's matchup between the Knicks and Clippers due to recent results. The Clippers have seen 3 straight games go well over 210 points and each of the Knicks last 2 have eclipsed 225. I just don't see that kind of pace being their for both teams. LA will be playing their 2nd straight on the road after last night's big game at Cleveland and New York has played 3 overtime periods in their last two games. This is a game both teams want to win. LA wants to rebound from a loss and the Knicks want to extend a 6-game home winning streak. It's also important to note that 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series have ended with 191 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 205! |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 44 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 44 m | Show | |
40* NFL --Playoffs Situational Total Crusher-- (UNDER 44) These are two of the best defenses in the league. Seattle finished the season 1st in scoring defense, allowing just 17.3 ppg and Carolina was 6th at 19.3 ppg. You also have to factor that the Seahawks defense was better on the road (14.6 ppg), while the Panthers defense was better at home (17.0 ppg). I know these two teams combined for 50-points in their regular season game, but neither could stop the opposing tight end. This time around Seattle is without Jimmy Graham and the Seahawks will have Bobby Wagner (didn't play in earlier meeting), who is their top linebacker at covering tight ends. Points are going to be hard to come by for both teams and it wouldn't surprise me at all if these two combined to score 20 or less. Give me the UNDER 44! |
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01-15-16 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 203 | Top | 91-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
50* NBA --Non-Conference Total of the Month-- (UNDER 203) The Cavaliers played a huge game last night at San Antonio, which they lost 95-99. They now must go on the road to face the Rockets on no rest. It's a very similar scenario from a few weeks back when Cleveland had to play on no rest at Portland after playing the previous day at Golden State. That game against the Trail Blazers saw a combined 181 points in a 76-105 loss. I'm expecting a similar type of outcome tonight, as the Cavs simply won't have the energy needed to put up a big number offensively. It's also worth mentioning the Rockets have been playing better defense of late, allowing just 96.6 ppg over their last 5, compared to the 105.0 ppg they are giving up for the season. UNDER is 20-9 in Cleveland's last 29 as an underdog, 21-9 in their last 30 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and a perfect 11-0 after playing their previous contest against a Western Conference team. Give me the UNDER 203! |
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01-14-16 | Kings v. Jazz UNDER 200.5 | 103-101 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 200.5) The Jazz have seen each of their last 3 games finish UNDER the total, including last night's game at Portland where the two teams combined for just 184 points with a total of 193. Utah's held each of their last 3 opponents under 100 points and a big reason for that is the return of star defensive center Rudy Gobert. I look for Utah to come out motivated off a loss on their home floor and the Kings to also bring the intensity off back-to-back losses. Utah is going to slow the pace way down and both teams aren't going to be looking to run playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. UNDER is 10-2 in Kings last 12 with a line of +3 to -3 and 4-1-1 in their last 6 off a double-digit loss. UNDER is also 22-8 in Utah's last 30 home games against a team with a losing road record and 10-4 in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread. Give me the UNDER 200.5! |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 50.5 | Top | 45-40 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Under 50.5) I don't see a ton of value with the spread, but I do think we are seeing an inflated total that presents some great value on the UNDER. Both of these teams took advantage of great matchups in the semifinals. Oklahoma couldn't stop Clemson's ground attack and Alabama took advantage of a weak Michigan State secondary. That clearly won't be the case in this matchup and I look for both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off the ones they do put together with touchdowns. UNDER is 33-14 in Crimson Tide's last 57 against strong rushing teams that average 200+ yards/game on the ground and 16-6 in Clemson's last 22 against strong run defenses that allow 2.75 or less yards/carry. Give me the UNDER 50.5! |
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01-10-16 | Celtics v. Grizzlies UNDER 193.5 | 98-101 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 193.5) Memphis comes into this game scoring 92.4 ppg and allowing just 91.2 ppg over their last 5. While I expect the defensive intensity to be there, the offense figures to struggle more than normal with both Mike Conley and Courtney Lee both out with injury. Boston is a strong offensive team, but are struggling of late. Celtics have lost 4 of 5 overall which is a good sign that we can expect max effort on the defensive end to get back in the win column. Give me the UNDER 193.5! |
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01-09-16 | Bulls v. Hawks OVER 206.5 | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Situational Total Crusher-- (Over 206.5) It's taken a little longer than some expected, but the Bulls are finally starting to look like the offensive juggernaut that many expected to see when Holberg took over as the head coach. Chicago has scored 100+ points in 9 straight games. The first time that has happened since 1995. I don't see the streak coming to an end against the Hawks, who are allowing 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and 100.5 ppg on the season. Key here is the Bulls aren't the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Chicago is allowing 103.8 ppg on the road and will be facing a very capable Atlanta offense that averages 102.5 ppg. Give me the OVER 206.5! |
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01-04-16 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 193.5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
50* NBA --Guaranteed Hardwood Top Play-- (Pacers/Heat UNDER 193.5) With this game being played on NBA TV, I'm expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity. Anytime Miami is playing at home you have to be thinking UNDER, as the Heat only score 97.2 ppg and allow just 95.4 ppg on the road. Indiana is a strong offensive team, but figure to struggle to reach their season average of 102.5 ppg. Big key here is the Pacers are getting after it defensively right now, allowing just 95.8 ppg over their last 5. These two teams have played twice already this season and combined for 177 and 179. Give me the UNDER 193.5! |
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01-02-16 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 | 100-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (Over 204.5) I'm expecting a very high-scoring game this afternoon between the Celtics and Nets. Each of the last 2 games in the series have seen a combined score of 112 or more. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in 10 straight games and the Celtics have scored 100+ in 6 of their last 7. Brooklyn also comes in averaging 104.6 ppg over their last 5. Over is (58-28) 67% over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more, where you have a team off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off a home loss. Give me the OVER 204.5! |
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12-29-15 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 194.5 | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (UNDER 194.5) I really like the value we are getting here with this total. Cleveland is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and will rely on their defense in this one. The Cavaliers are a tired team and will be playing their 4th straight on the road and 4th game overall in the last 5 days. Denver's offense will struggle here, as they are expected to be without leading scorer Danilo Gallinari and point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. I don't see either offense going off in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5! |
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12-27-15 | Cowboys v. Bills OVER 42 | 6-16 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NFL --Situational Total Crusher-- (OVER 42) With both of these teams out of the playoff picture and just playing out the season, I look for this to be a high scoring game that easily goes over the total posted here. I was really impressed with what I saw last week from Kellen Moore against a stingy Jets defense and look for the Cowboys offense to get going against a Bills defense that has struggled of late. Buffalo has allowed at least 20 points in 5 straight games and I expect that trend to continue. Dallas' defense played hard last week against New York, but the Cowboys still had an outside shot at the NFC East division. With Dallas no longer in the mix, I think the Bills are going to have their way with Dallas' defense. Buffalo has been moving the ball well the last few weeks. They have had at least 390 total yards in 3 straight games with over 400 in each of the last 2. OVER is a perfect 6-0 in the Cowboys last 6 non-conference games and 5-0 in the Bills' last 5 following a SU loss. Give me the OVER 42! |
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12-25-15 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 83-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
50* NBA --Cavs/Warriors NBA Guaranteed Top Play-- (UNDER 210) This has been arguably the most anticipated game of the regular season and I'm expecting both of these teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. All 6 games in the Finals last year finished with 208 or fewer points. We are simply seeing an inflated total here due to this being such a big game and the books inflated the total knowing the public will be all over the OVER. Both teams are also well-rested and that's been a strong indicator for both of these teams to go UNDER. In fact, the UNDER is 15-5 in Cleveland's last 20 road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. UNDER is also 14-3 in Golden State's last 17 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. Give me the UNDER 210! |
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12-24-15 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 46 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
40* NFL --Thursday Night Total Crusher-- (Over 46) Normally I like to look to take the UNDER in division games, as they tend to be lower scoring than expected. However, I don't think that's going to be the case tonight. Both of these teams are out of playoff contention and can't exactly be thrilled about having to play on Christmas Eve. To top it off, they have had a short week of rest to work with. I don't see the intensity being there on the defensive side of the ball in meaningless game, and these two offenses are more than capable of putting up points. Chargers have struggled to score of late, but this is a good matchup with Philip Rivers going up against a horrible Oakland secondary. Keep in mind these two teams combined for 66 points and over 800 combined yards of offense earlier this season. Give me the OVER 46! |
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12-23-15 | Blazers v. Pelicans UNDER 203 | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
50* NBA --Non-Conference Total of the Month-- (Under 203) Portland is expected to be without their top two scorers in this game, as Damian Lillard has been ruled out and C.J. McCollum is doubtful. These two combine for over 44 ppg, which is nearly half of the Blazers entire offensive output (101.4 ppg). I just don't see them being able to do enough offensively for this game to be high-enough scoring to eclipse this total. New Orleans should be able to jump out to an early lead and they will be more than happy to coast down the stretch of this game with a road game against Miami on Christmas coming up. Give me the UNDER 203! |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green OVER 64 | 58-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF --GoDaddy Bowl Total Crusher-- (Over 64) With both teams having lost their head coaches prior to this matchup, I look for the offenses to reign supreme in a game that features to dynamic offensive teams. Bowling Green averages 43.4 ppg and Georgia Southern isn't too far behind at 34.7 ppg. I don't see the intensity being there defensively without their head coaches patrolling the sidelines and even if that wasn't the case, I don't think these two defenses would be having much success against the opposing offense. Bowling Green has a dynamic passing attack that averages 376 ypg and will be facing an Eagles defense that allows 7.3 yards pass attempt. On the other side, Georgia Southern has the nations best rushing attack at 356 ypg and will be facing a Falcons defense that allows 4.0 yards/carry. Give me the OVER 64! |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints OVER 51.5 | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (OVER 51.5) Both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention and that's going to take away from of the edge defensively for both teams. At the same time, it should have both teams taking a lot more chances than they normally would, would should lead to a lot of big plays. The Saints last 4 home games have been extremely high scoring, with all 4 seeing 52 or more combined points, including a 79 point outburst against the Panthers and 101 points against the Giants. Look for a lot of offensive fire-works in this one, as the OVER is 18-6 in the Saints last 24 home games against teams who struggle to run the ball (90 or less yards/game). Give me the OVER 51.5! |
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12-17-15 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 41 | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
40* NFL --TNF Over/Under Winner-- (Under 41) I don't see a lot of offensive fire works taking place in this one. Tampa Bay has scored 23 or less in 6 of their last 7 games and the Rams are only giving up 19.0 ppg at home. On the flip side of this, St Louis' offense is dreadful right now. The Rams had scored 18 or fewer in 6 straight before scoring 21 last week agains the Lions and 7 of those points came on a defensive touchdown. On the season St Louis is scoring just 16.2 ppg and will struggle to move the ball here with Tampa Bay being stout against the run and the Rams not having any threat of a passing attack. UNDER is 10-1 in St Louis' last 11 games in December and 12-3 in the Bucs' last 15 in the 2nd half of the season. Give me the UNDER 41! |
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12-17-15 | Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 196 | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
50* NBA --Hardwood Guaranteed Total Top Play-- (Under 196) Whenever a quality team is coming off a blowout loss in their last game, more times than not that leads to an inspired defensive effort in their next contest. It just so happens that we have two teams facing off against each other in this spot. Toronto lost 90-106 at Indiana in their last contest, while the Hornets got embarrassed 98-113 at Orlando last time out. Look for both of these teams to bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball tonight and their season numbers definitely support this play. The Raptors are only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and the Hornets are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. Give me the UNDER 196! |
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12-15-15 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 202 | Top | 89-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
50* NBA -Hardwood Guaranteed Total Top Play-- (Under 202) The Cavaliers turned in one of their best defensive efforts of the season in their last game, as they held the Magic to 76 points or 38.9% shooting. No surprise that this performance came in the return of defensive specialist Iman Shumpert. With Cleveland having had 3 full days of rest before this game and Boston off 2 days of rest, I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in a game that will be televised on NBATV. Keep in mind that 7 of the last 11 in the series have gone UNDER the total. We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 39-14 (74%) over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more with a team off an upset win as underdog against an opponent off a road win by 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 202! |
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12-14-15 | Giants v. Dolphins OVER 47 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NFL -- MNF Over/Under Winner-- (Over 47) I'm expecting a high-scoring game tonight between these two teams. As we have two defenses that are struggling. The Dolphins are giving up 26.0 ppg at home, while New York is allowing 25.7 ppg on the road. We are simply seeing some good value here due to the fact that the Giants have gone under the total in 2 straight, while the under is 3-1 in Miami's last 4. OVER is 29-14 in Giants last 43 road games off 2 or more consecutive unders, 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record and 5-2 in Miami's last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the OVER 47! |
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12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (OVER 45.5) Arizona has one of the most well-rounded offenses in the NFL. The Cardinals lead the league in both total offense (419.5 ypg) and scoring offense (31.8 ppg). I look for Arizona to put up a big number here against a Vikings defense that has been hit hard with injuries. Minnesota won't have starting defensive tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Anthony Barr and safeties Harrison Smith and Antone Exum. They also are without backup safety Andrew Sendejo and backup safety Robert Blanton is questionable. Inexperience in the defensive backfield is going to result in a lot of big plays for Arizona and I see no reason why they don't eclipse their season average in this one. Vikings should be able to score enough (may not be till garbage time) to push this well over the mark. Give me the OVER 45.5! |
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12-09-15 | Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 202 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (UNDER 202) I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that the Clippers come into this game having scored 100+ in 5 of their last 6. The key thing to keep in mind with this stretch is 5 of those 6 games came at home and the lone road game came against a poor defensive team in the Timberwolves. Milwaukee has won 4 straight at home and during this stretch have allowed 88, 74, 91 and 88 points. The Bucks only average 95.5 ppg offensively and know they can't get into a shootout with the Clippers, so look for them to slow this game way down. You also have to factor in that LA has a nationally televised game against the Bulls on TNT tomorrow, so they aren't going to want to waste their energy against a team like Milwaukee. Give me the UNDER 202! |
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12-08-15 | Magic v. Nuggets UNDER 198 | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA --Over/Under Total Crusher-- (UNDER 198) Orlando comes into this game off a 101-103 loss at the Clippers, which snapped a streak of 5 straight games where they had allowed 95 or fewer points. The Nuggets have won 2 straight with a 106-105 win at Toronto and 108-105 win at Philadelphia. Prior to those two games Denver had allowed 99 or fewer in 4 straight and scored 94 or less in 5 consecutive games. I believe we are seeing an inflated total based on the recent performances of these two teams. UNDER is 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 road games off a close loss by 3-points or less and 24-9 in the Nuggets last 33 games in the month of December. Give me the UNDER 198! |