|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-12-19||Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5||21-42||Win||100||50 h 29 m||Show|
40* JETS/RAVENS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 44.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 44.5 I get the defensive numbers have been decent for New York this season, but look at who they have played. Outside of their division opponents, they have played the Browns, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags, Giants, Redskins, Raiders and Bengals.
This is by far the best offensive they have faced. I know Lamar Jackson is nursing a quad injury, but he’s fully expected to play and I can’t imagine the Ravens sending him out there if they don’t feel he’s at or near 100%. I just don’t think the Jets will be able to slow this offense down and with Sam Darnold on the other side, I wouldn’t be shocked if Baltimore’s defense didn’t find the endzone in this one.
While Darnold could make some costly mistakes, he’s also very capable of guiding this Jets offense up and down the field. Much like New York’s defense will struggle to play well on just 3-days of rest, the same can be said for Baltimore. Not to mention this has the feel of a big flat spot for that Ravens defense, as they have really put it all on the line the last four weeks against the Texans, Rams, 49ers and Bills. Give me the OVER 44.5.
|12-09-19||Giants v. Eagles -9||Top||17-23||Loss||-110||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles -9)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia winning by double-digits at home against the Giants on Monday Night Football. I know the Eagles are a big favorite here, but after last week's loss to the Dolphins dropped them to 5-7, Philadelphia's backs are firmly against the wall and it just seems like whenever the Eagles are in this spot they deliver in a big way. I think a lot of people are expecting Eli Manning to come out and play well after not suiting up the last 11 weeks and I just don't think that's going to be the case. I'm in the belief the Eagles didn't give the Dolphins the respect they deserved and that defense will respond in a big way. Note that in the previous 4 games Philadelphia had allowed 17 or fewer points and in their last home game held Russell Wilson to 174 passing yards on 13 of 25 attempts. The other big thing here is the Giants defense. New York is giving up 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg away from home this season. Give me the Eagles -9!
|12-08-19||49ers v. Saints -2||48-46||Loss||-110||46 h 32 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Saints -2)
I'lll take my chances with New Orleans laying less than a field goal at home against the 49ers. I not only think this is a great price to back the Saints at home, but I also think the spot heavily favors New Orleans.
The 49ers are a great team and I just feel like whenever an elite team suffers a loss the public’s first thought is they can’t lose two in a row. Sometimes that’s a valid theory, but I don’t think it applies here. It’s hard enough playing back-to-back road games in the NFL. The 49ers must try and do so after playing in the biggest game of the week and in one of the toughest places in the NFL to get a win in a game of this magnitude.
Not only that, but New Orleans gets the luxury of having an extra 3 days to prepare for this game because they were one of the six teams to take the field on Thanksgiving Day. That extra rest is huge, especially this time of the year.
A lot of attention has been given to the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but I think given the spot and just how talented Drew Brees is, especially with his ability to get rid of the ball quickly, this is one of those games where their defense could struggle. Since Sean Payton took over as head coach the Saints are 9-2 ATS vs teams who allow 17 or fewer points/game.
When people talk about New Orleans it’s usually centered around Brees and the offense, but they got a top notch defense this year. They 10th in the NFL, giving up just 323.5 ypg. The big stat however is that they own the league’s No. 1 ranked run defense. I think we have seen some limitations to Jimmy G and the 49ers passing game here of late and I just think they are going to have a hard time moving the ball with how much they figure to struggle to run the ball.
It’s also worth pointing out that when New Orleans has been matched up against the leagues best, they have been an absolute money maker. Saints are 9-1 ATS under Payton in games against an elite team that is outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Not only have they covered just about every game, they are winning by an average of 10 ppg. Give me New Orleans -2!
|12-08-19||Redskins +14 v. Packers||15-20||Win||100||44 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Redskins +14)
I'll take my chances here with Washington getting two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday. The Redskins have something going right now and I just think the line here is a reflection of their overall body of work and now how they are playing. I know Haskins is a major work in progress, but they have got the running game going and this Green Bay defense is susceptible to big plays. The Packers ended up winning by 18 last week at the Giants, but a lot of that was Rodgers ability to pick apart a bad New York secondary. Redskins secondary ranks in the top half of the league in yards allowed and Green Bay doesn't have the best running game to take advantage of their weakness defensively. Give me the Redskins +14!
|12-08-19||Bengals +7.5 v. Browns||19-27||Loss||-119||44 h 9 m||Show|
40* NFL SHARP MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Bengals +7.5)
I'll take my chances with the Bengals getting 7.5 on the road against the Browns. Cincinnati showed a lot of heart and fight getting their first win of the season last week against the Jets and I think we are going to see this team continue to play hard over the final month of the regular-season. As for the Browns, their playoff hopes just took a massive blow in their loss to the Steelers and I just don't understand how this team can be laying a touchdown against any team in the league right now. Andy Dalton is a massive upgrade at QB for Cincinnati over Ryan Finley and they are expected to get back wide out John Ross. I not only think there's a good chance the Bengals cover, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me Cincinnati +7.5!
|12-08-19||Lions +13 v. Vikings||Top||7-20||Push||0||44 h 5 m||Show|
50* LIONS/VIKINGS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Lions +13)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Lions catching double-digits against division rival Minnesota on Sunday. The Lions are just 3-8-1 and have lost 5 straight, but the talent is there. Of their 8 losses this season, only one has come by more than 8 points and their largest deficit is by just 12. They have had the lead in so many of their games this year and just haven't been able to finish. I just don't see this team laying down against a division opponent and I don't love this spot for Minnesota coming off that crazy loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Not only will the Vikings be playing on short rest, the Lions will have had 3 extra days of prep time after playing on Thursday last week. Give me Detroit +13!
|12-08-19||Colts v. Bucs -3||35-38||Push||0||44 h 3 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bucs -3)
I'll take my chances here with Tampa Bay laying just a field goal at home against the Colts. The Bucs are going down with a fight and this team is off two really impressive wins. They won at Atlanta 35-22 stopping a red-hot Falcons team in their tracks and last week laid it on the Jaguars 28-11. As for the Colts, they are headed in the opposite direction. Indy has lost 4 of 5 and just gave the game away last week to the Titans. I just think the offensive injuries for the Colts are getting too much for them to overcome and I really don't like the matchup here for Indy with how good the Bucs are at defending the run. Give me Tampa Bay -3!
|12-05-19||Cowboys -3 v. Bears||Top||24-31||Loss||-110||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -3)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas as a small road favorite. For me it comes down to quarterback play and who I trust more to make the big plays when needed. It’s not really much of a debate in my eyes. Dak Prescott is far from elite, but he’s a heck of a lot better than Mitch Trubisky.
Not only do the Bears have a liability at quarterback in Trubisky, but they don’t have any real weapons at receiver or tight end and the running game has been non-existent. Chicago has rushed for more than 90 yards just twice all season and only once in their last 10 games. When you can’t effectively run the ball on first down, you end up with a lot of 3rd and long situations and Trubisky isn’t a guy that convert those on a consistent basis.
I’m also not buying the thought that the Bears have turned their season around with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Especially when you take into consideration that two of those were against the Lions and the other was against the Giants and they won all 3 by 7 or less.
Sure the Cowboys were embarrassed on Thanksgiving by Buffalo, but that’s a really good Bills team. They also hurt themselves in that defeat, as they only managed 15 points despite putting up over 425 yards of total offense. Give me Dallas -3!
|12-02-19||Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5||Top||30-37||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Seattle laying less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I just think Minnesota is getting way too much respect here coming off of their bye. Seahawks are 9-2 on MNF since Pete Carroll came to town, which speaks volumes to just how tough it is to win at CenturyLink Field in prime time games. The Vikings clearly aren't a bad team with a 8-3 record, but it worth noting that they currently don't have a single win against a team that currently has a winning record. In their last 3 games they lost at KC without Mahomes, won at Dallas by 4 despite getting outgained by 79 yards and had to rally from 20 down to beat the Broncos at home. Seattle is also a team that I think has gotten better with each week and with a win can take over the top spot in the NFC West and put themselves in a position for a first round bye. Give me Seattle -2.5!
|12-01-19||Raiders v. Chiefs -10||9-40||Win||100||28 h 44 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs -10)
I'll take my chances here with KC not just beating the Raiders but laying it on Oakland. Chiefs are as healthy as they have been in a long time and Andy Reid is as good as it gets coming off a bye. Reid is 17-3 as a head coach off a bye week in the regular-season. With a chance to basically lock up the AFC West with a win against the Raiders, I think we see the Chiefs make a statement Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. Give me Kansas City -10!
|12-01-19||Rams v. Cardinals OVER 47||34-7||Loss||-110||28 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 47)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47. This game has shootout written all over it and I think we are getting a great price here because of how bad the Rams offense looked in that blowout loss to the Ravens. While I do think LA's got some problems with their offense, they should have no trouble moving the ball here against a bad Cardinals defense. Arizona's giving up 30.6 ppg 417 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Key here is I think Murray and the Cardinals offense can go score-for-score with the Rams. Give me the OVER 47!
|12-01-19||Titans v. Colts -2.5||Top||31-17||Loss||-104||91 h 2 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -2.5)
I just think there’s a ton of value here with Indianapolis laying less than a field goal at home. I think a big reason for the line is the fact that the Colts come in having lost 3 of 4 and the Titans have won 4 of 5.
What most will fail to overlook is that Tennessee’s recent hot streak has come in a very favorable spot in their schedule. All 4 wins during their recent run have come at home and only one of those was against a team with a winning record. As for the Colts recent woes. You can’t knock them for losing at Houston on just 3-days of rest and the other two were a 24-26 loss at Pittsburgh and a 12-16 loss to the Dolphins. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett left in the 2nd quarter with a knee injury against the Steelers and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minutes. Indy didn’t have Brissett for the loss to Miami and backup Brian Hoyer threw 3 picks in the defeat.
What a lot of people overlook with the Colts is just how good they are on the defensive side of the ball. Indy has really done a 180 on that the last couple of years. Colts are only giving up 19.7 ppg on the season and that drops to a mere 17.8 ppg on the road.
One thing they have been really good at of late is stopping the run. Since giving up 188 yards rushing to the Raiders in Week 4, they have allowed just 76.7 ypg. If you can take away Derek Henry and the Titans running game, there’s really not much that offense can do to beat you. They just don’t have the weapons on the outside.
Colts are also 40-19 ATS last 59 times they have come off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have been matched up against a division opponent. Give me Indianapolis -2.5!
|12-01-19||49ers +6 v. Ravens||17-20||Win||100||25 h 36 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +6)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers all day long at this price. The Ravens are a great team, but Baltimore is way overvalued coming off that big blowout win over the Rams on MNF. If there's one team that's built to slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens offense, it's this 49ers squad. San Francisco's got the talent up front to keep Jackson from running wild. At the same time, I think the 49ers are also good enough to go score for score with Baltimore. I think this going to be tight the entire way and this is just too many points to pass up. Give me the 49ers +6!
|12-01-19||Redskins v. Panthers -10||29-21||Loss||-100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL BIG MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Panthers -10)
I'll take my chances here with Carolina covering as a double-digit home favorite against the Redskins. I know Washington pulled off a win last week against Detroit, but that was at home and against the Lions. Big thing to note from that game is the Haskins and Redskins offense did next to nothing in that game and I just don't think he's ready for the NFL. Panthers have been struggling of late, but are not going to throw in the towel just yet. I expect a max effort here at home and that should be more than enough to win here by at least two touchdowns. Give me the Panthers -10!
|11-28-19||Saints -6.5 v. Falcons||26-18||Win||100||26 h 14 m||Show|
40* SAINTS/FALCONS PRIME-TIME ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with New Orleans winning by at least a touchdown. Hard to imagine the Falcons defense having as much success as they did in the first meeting, making it hard to believe Atlanta can score enough here to keep this close, especially when they are likely to be without star wide out Julio Jones.
I also don't trust the mental state of the Falcons. Prior to that upset against the Saints in the first meeting, the Falcons were coming out of their bye believing if they won that game they had a shot to turn their season around. Now there's next to no hope for this team. They are 6-games back of the Saints in the NFC South with 5 to play, so the division is out of the picture. They are also 5-games back of the Vikings with 5 to play for the final Wild Card and have 7 teams in front of them. I just don't know that this being a division home game is enough to get the juices flowing.
Lastly, the Saints are going to come in with a chip on their shoulder after what happened in that last meeting. They still got plenty of motivation to finish with one of the two best records in the NFC and with a win they can lock up the NFC South title. Give me the Saints -6.5!
|11-28-19||Bills v. Cowboys -6.5||Top||26-15||Loss||-110||22 h 22 m||Show|
50* BILLS/COWBOYS THANKSGIVING DAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bills. While I think people have made a big mistake betting against Buffalo in previous games simply because of their soft schedule (Bills were one of my favorite plays last week against Denver), I do think they are going to have a tough time here keeping it close against a good Dallas team on the road.
First and foremost, it’s extremely difficult playing on the road in these Thursday games, where you have just 3 days of rest, especially for the team that has to travel. Keep in mind that while Buffalo was at home last week, they will be playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, so they have been on the go a lot of late.
At the same time, Dallas has a lot of familiarity playing on Thanksgiving Day and usually play well in this spot in front of their home fans. Last year the beat the Redskins 31-23.
One thing that I think really speaks volumes to Buffalo’s schedule and how easy it’s been, is the fact that their opponents on the season are averaging a mere 18.5 ppg and 304 ypg. It definitely makes you think twice about their defensive numbers, as they look elite giving up just 15.7 ppg and 289 ypg.
I also think it’s fair to say that Dallas and Philadelphia are two pretty evenly matched teams and Buffalo lost 31-13 at home to the Eagles back in Week 8. Philadelphia was able to impose their will on the ground in that game, rushing for 218 yards. When Dallas can get Zeke and that running game going, that offense is really tough to stop. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||45-6||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|11-24-19||Packers v. 49ers -3||Top||8-37||Win||100||31 h 39 m||Show|
50* PACKERS/49ERS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with San Francisco getting right at home on Sunday Night Football against the Packers. I think after a couple of lackluster performances the 49ers are going to lay a beating on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I just don't think that Green Bay offensive line has any chance here of keeping that 49ers front from making life miserable for Rodgers. On the flip side of this, I think San Francisco's offense is poised to get back on track with the return of tight end George Kittle, who missed the last two. 49ers are also expected to have both wideouts Deebo Samuel and Emanuel Sanders after both were listed as questionable, they are now probable. Give me San Francisco -3!
|11-24-19||Cowboys v. Patriots -5.5||9-13||Loss||-110||27 h 31 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Patriots -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with New England winning by 6 or more at home against the Cowboys. I just think New England is the far superior team. Not only that, they just don't lose at home, especially at this juncture of the season. Patriots are a ridiculous 33-13 ATS at home with Tom Brady at quarterback. I think that offense will be able to move the ball here, but more than anything I think a Cowboys offense that is hurting on the offensive line is going to have a miserable time moving the football. GIve me the Patriots -5.5!
|11-24-19||Broncos v. Bills -4||3-20||Win||100||99 h 26 m||Show|
40* NFL BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Bills -4)
I'll take my chances here with the Bills laying a short number at home. I just think people are so quick to want to fade Buffalo because of the easy schedule they have played. I’m not about to sit here and say it hasn’t been easy or this team is as good as their 7-3 record, but this is just too good a price to pass up.
I also think we are seeing Denver get some love due to the fact that they nearly won outright as a double-digit dog last week at Minnesota and are a perfect 2-0 ATS with Brandon Allen at quarterback for the injured Joe Flacco.
I was on Denver last week in their near upset over the Vikings, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Broncos were way undervalued at +10.5. They were also coming off their bye week and facing a Minnesota team that was primed for a letdown with their bye on deck and fresh off two huge prime time games against the Chiefs and Cowboys.
The biggest thing for me and jumping off the Broncos bandwagon this week is how they lost that game to the Vikings. I don’t care how big of a dog you are, losing a game you lead by 20-points at the half and by 16 going into the 4th quarter is one that is extremely difficult to bounce back. I think it’s that much harder when you have to go on the road against a hungry Bills team that desperately needs to win this game with their next 4 games against the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots. Not to mention that loss to the Vikings was one the Broncos had to have to have any shot at getting back in the AFC playoff race.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Denver came out and played their worst game of the season on Sunday. Give me the Bills -4!
|11-24-19||Lions -3.5 v. Redskins||16-19||Loss||-100||23 h 25 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Lions -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Detroit laying a short number at the Redskins. I just think this is a good price on the Lions. I know they have lost 3 straight and failed to cover 5 in a row, but they have played well here of late. Not have Stafford sucks, but I like what I've seen from Driskel against a couple of decent defenses in the Bears and Cowboys. He should have a big game here against a Redskins defense that was just shredded by Sam Darnold last week. The other big thing is the fact that Washington is sending out Haskins at QB and he's just not NFL ready and a big liability on the field. Detroit's defense should have a great game and could even get in on the scoring action. Give me the Lions -3.5!
|11-24-19||Bucs v. Falcons -3.5||Top||35-22||Loss||-109||23 h 10 m||Show|
50* NFL NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta laying a short number at home against the Bucs. These two teams have identical 3-7 records, but it doesn't feel like it. Tampa Bay is on a downward spiral, while the Falcons have seemed to figure things out. Any concern that Atlanta's 26-9 win at New Orleans was a fluke were put to rest in a 29-3 win at Carolina last week. What was once one of the worst defenses in the league is playing like one of the best. I'll take my chances that strong defensive play carries over. With the way Tampa struggles to stop the pass and the weapons Atlanta has on the outside, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Falcons -3.5!
|11-21-19||Colts v. Texans -3.5||17-20||Loss||-100||10 h 40 m||Show|
40* NFL COLTS/TEXANS TNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texans -3.5)
I just think this is a great price to get the Texans coming off their worst performance of the season. I was actually shocked with how much respect Houston was getting on the road against a Ravens team that is playing as well anyone right now.
It’s just a lot harder than people think to slow down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. As is the case for a lot of teams that go against Baltimore, the Texans just couldn’t stop the Ravens running game. Baltimore piled on 263 yards on the ground.
The good news is that prior to giving up all those yards on the ground to the Ravens, Houston had gone 7 straight games where they held their opponent under 95 yards rushing. In the previous matchup with the Colts, they held Indy to just 62 yards on 26 attempts. I know the Colts got the win despite the low rushing numbers, but I don’t think it will be as easy for them to score without being able to run the ball on the road.
Another thing to keep in mind with that previous result against the Colts, is that Indianapolis had a big advantage in that game coming off their bye week. Now it’s the Texans who get the big scheduling advantage playing at home on just 3 days of rest.
You also have to love how Houston has responded after a bad game like they had against the Ravens. The Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a game where they gave up more than 150 rushing yards. They are also 16-7-1 ATS last 24 after scoring fewer than 15 points. Houston is also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 off a game where they failed to cover and 27-12 ATS last 39 when revenging a loss where they gave up 28 or more points. Give me the Texans -3.5!
|11-18-19||Chiefs -4 v. Chargers||Top||24-17||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -4)
I'll take my chances here with Kansas City covering the spread over the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. I know the Chiefs are coming off an ugly loss at Tennessee where they gifted the Titans the win. I still think this KC team is a legit Super Bowl contender. Patrick Mahomes was sensational in his first game back from a dislocated knee cap, throwing for over 400 yards with 3 scores. KC's defense struggled with containing Derek Henry, but I still like what I've seen from them on that side. They are much improved over a year ago and this Chargers offense hasn't been anything special. Give me the Chiefs -4!
|11-17-19||Patriots -4 v. Eagles||Top||17-10||Win||100||30 h 34 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR(Patriots -4)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Patriots on Sunday. For me it's automatic to take New England coming off a loss and an absolute no-brainer if they are coming off a bye. I expect a big bounce back effort from the Patriots defense. The big reason they struggled with Baltimore in their last game is there's just no defending an elite mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson. Also, if coming off a loss and a bye wasn't enough to get you to take the Patriots, I got to believe NE wants some revenge against the Eagles after losing to them in the SB a couple years back, as this is the first meetings since that game. Pats are 16-5 ATS last 21 off a loss by 14 or more and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road after a bye week. Give me New England -4!
|11-17-19||Cardinals +10.5 v. 49ers||26-36||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK (Cardinals +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona as a double-digit dog against the Cardinals. Whenever you have a big public team like the 49ers coming off a loss after being so good for so long, the public just assumes they are going to bounce back. I just don't see it. The injuries are really starting to pile up for SF. Jimmy G will once again be without his best weapon in tight end George Kittle and there's a good chance he won't have his new toy in Emmanuel Sanders. 49ers also lost a couple of key rotation guys up front on their d-line. Arizona is 6-3 ATS with rookie QB Kyler Murray and have covered 5 of their last 6 overall, including a mere 3-point loss at home to these 49ers a few weeks ago. Give me the Cardinals +10.5!
|11-17-19||Broncos +10.5 v. Vikings||23-27||Win||100||27 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Broncos +10.5)
I see a lot of value here with the Broncos as a double-digit dog against the Vikings. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Vikings off their win at Dallas in prime time on Sunday Night Football. Not only that, but Denver’s not a team the public wants a lot to do with right now, so the books are able to inflate the number knowing the public will be on Minnesota no matter what the number is.
I’m not going to sit here and say Denver is a great team, but I do think they are better than their 3-6 record. The Broncos could easily have a winning record, as they got 4 losses by 8 or less, including 3 defeats by a mere 2-points.
In Denver’s last game they gave Brandon Allen his first NFL start in place of the injured Joe Flacco. While they might have been forced into making the switch because of Flacco’s injury, it felt like a move needed to be made. Flacco was playing really bad before getting hurt and it often looked like he didn’t even want to be out there. I think his negative attitude was rubbing off on the entire team and things just weren’t going to get better with him on the field.
I get Allen didn’t light the world on fire in his first start, but he did guide the team to a win over Cleveland and played pretty well in process. More than anything Allen seemed to give a new sense of life to this Denver team and I think it’s going to carry over to this game.
I also like the fact that the Broncos are coming into this game off of their bye. Not only is it big in terms of getting some much-needed rest and getting guys healthy, it also gives the staff some time to work in a little more of the offense with Allen.
The other big thing here is the Denver defense has been playing extremely well all season long. Not a big surprise given the defensive prowess of head coach Vic Fango. In the Broncos last 5 games they are giving up just 74.2 rushing/yards game. They also have the league’s 4th ranked pass defense.
I feel like the best way to slow down this Vikings offense is to take away Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota ground attack. Note that both of the Vikings losses this season have come in games where they failed to rush for 100 yards. I’m not saying Denver will pull off the upset, but I definitely like their chances of keeping it within the number. Give me the Broncos +10.5!
|11-17-19||Cowboys -6.5 v. Lions||35-27||Win||100||27 h 33 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys winning by at least a touchdown at Detroit on Sunday. Lions will once again be without Matthew Stafford and will have to start Jeff Driskel. The Lions managed just 13 points against the Bears last week and 7 of those came on a late garbage TD. If Chicago's offense wasn't so awful, they would have won by 20+ and I could see Dallas laying it on them.
Not a good matchup at all for the Lions. Detroit has no running game and the passing game is now limited with Driskel and will be facing a Cowboys defense that ranks in the top half of the league against the pass. It's not good on the other side. No one has been able to contain Zeke and the Cowboys ground game and the Lions are 28th vs the pass, so it's going to be a real balanced attack for Dak and the Cowboys. Give me Dallas -6.5!
|11-17-19||Texans v. Ravens -4||Top||7-41||Win||100||26 h 10 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Ravens -4)
I don't know that there's a team playing better than the Ravens right now and I while the Texans are coming off of their bye, I don't see Houston being able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. Keep in mind there's a little extra incentive for Jackson, who certainly hasn't forgot about that heartbreaking loss he suffered in college to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. He will be out to get his revenge on Sunday. Give me Baltimore -4!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns OVER 41||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.
Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.
Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.
I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.
As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers -6||Top||27-24||Loss||-105||10 h 3 m||Show|
50* SEAHAWKS/49ERS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -6)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Seahawks. I just think it's going to be really hard for Seattle to make a game out of this. Seahawks rely so much on Russell Wilson and their passing game and will be going up against an elite 49ers pass defense that is giving up just 139 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt. It's not just the defense. San Francisco has a better offense than they get credit for and are averaging 35.3 ppg at home. 49ers will be out to make a statement on Monday Night Football. Give me SF -6!
|11-10-19||Rams -3.5 v. Steelers||Top||12-17||Loss||-117||25 h 24 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams -3.5)
I give a lot of props to Pittsburgh and how they have continued to play hard, but I just think they are getting a little too much love here. The thing you have to keep in mind is that 3 of their 4 wins have come at home against the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts. Not to mention Indy lost their starting QB early in that game.
I just don’t think their offense is going to be able to keep up. Pittsburgh has struggled to effectively run the football and Rudolph hasn’t been that impressive. If they can’t run the ball, that’s a problem, because they won’t be able to play keepaway from the Rams offense. Nothing supports this more than the fact that the LA is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Sean McVay against teams who are averaging 90 or less rushing yards game.
The Rams just aren’t covering in this spot, they are destroying teams. Their average margin of victory is by 19.7 ppg (35.1 to 15.4).
Another thing is that you almost just have to back road favorites blindly when coming off a bye. Teams laying points on the road with 2 or more weeks of rest are 100-57 (64%) ATS dating back to 1983. Steelers are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and Rams are 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road. Give me Los Angeles -3.5!
|11-10-19||Lions v. Bears -2.5||Top||13-20||Win||100||73 h 46 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bears -2.5)
The public perception couldn’t be much worse with Chicago right now and I think it’s created unbelievable value with the Bears laying less than a field goal at home. There’s no denying that Trubisky is not playing well, but I don’t think he can play any worse than he has. If anything, he’s due for a breakout performance.
One thing that I think gets overlooked with the Bears and most notably Trubisky’s poor start to the season, is the fact that Chicago has played a bunch of really good defensive teams. The only bad defense he’s faced in 2019 is the Redskins and he threw for 231 yards and 3 scores. Detroit’s defense has been holding them back all season and their secondary is 30th in the league, giving up 288.4 ypg.
Another thing that has quietly gone under the radar a bit in the Bears offensive struggles, is rookie running back David Montgomery is starting to get going. While he had just 40 yards against the Eagles, he scored twice and had a lot of nice runs in the 2nd half. The week before he had 135 yards against the Chargers. Lions run defense has allowed 165 or more yards in 3 of their last 4.
I think we see the Chicago offense come to life, while the Bears defense makes life difficult on Matt Stafford and the Lions offense. Detroit’s offense just hasn’t been the same since losing Kerryon Johnson to a season-ending injury. Stafford has played 30 games in his career against strong defensive teams that allow 15 to 21 ppg and has won just 6 times. Bears are 18-7 ATS last 25 at home off 3 straight losses and 22-8 ATS last 30 at home after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Give me Chicago -2.5!
|11-10-19||Chiefs -6 v. Titans||32-35||Loss||-105||22 h 7 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6)
I'll take my chances here with the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Titans. With Mahomes set to return this week for KC, I just don't see Tennessee being able to keep pace offensively against what I believe is hands down the best offense in the league with Mahomes under center.
Kansas City isn't just getting Mahomes back, they are as healthy as they have been since Week 1. I just don't think we have seen anything close to the best football for this team and with the way the defense is improving each and every week, they would be my pick to win it all right now. Give me the Chiefs -6!
|11-10-19||Bills v. Browns -2.5||16-19||Win||100||22 h 4 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Browns -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Bills. Most have thrown in the towel on the Browns this season and it's hard to blame them, given they are just 2-6 overall and come in having lost 4 and failed to cover in straight.
I expect a big effort here from Cleveland in this one and I think Buffalo is a team they can handle, especially at home. Bills are 6-2, but haven't beat anybody. Buffalo's 6 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins and Redskins. Tennessee is the only one of those teams with more than 2 wins.
Speaking of schedules, the Browns have played one of the toughest slates in the league. They have played 5 of their first 8 on the road with 3 of those against the Ravens, 49ers and Patriots. They also have had two home games against top tier teams in the Rams and Seahawks. Give me Cleveland -2.5!
|11-10-19||Cardinals v. Bucs OVER 51.5||27-30||Win||100||22 h 2 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games of the season. OVER has cashed in 6 straight games for Tampa Bay with every single one of those game seeing at least 50 points. Bucs have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6. The only team they held under the mark is an awful Titans offense, who put up 27. Cardinals have allowed 28 or more in 3 of their last 4 and have scored 25 or more in 4 of their last 5. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-07-19||Chargers -119 v. Raiders||Top||24-26||Loss||-119||11 h 57 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -119)
I just feel like the price is too good to pass up with Los Angeles. Even though the Chargers are off such an impressive win, I still think we are getting some value on the line because of how bad they have been to this point. I also think it helps the Raiders come in off a big home win and cover.
Usually the home team has a big edge in these Thursday games, but it’s minimal travel here for the Chargers. You also have to factor in how LA has dominated the series with 4 straight wins.
You never want to overreact in the NFL, but I think it’s smart to try and get ahead of some things. There was just a different feel to that Chargers offense under Steichen. They hadn’t rushed for more than 40 yards in 4 straight games and finished with a season-high 159 yards in his first game calling the plays.
Not only that, Rivers carved up the Packers secondary and that’s a Green Bay defense that had really been impressive over the first half of the season. Now the Chargers get to carry over that confidence and momentum on offense against one of the league’s worst defenses.
As for LA’s defense, they haven’t been the problem this year. I think seeing the offense finally get going really lit a fire under this team and when the offense is getting first downs they are able to stay fresh and let their dominant front 7 go to work. If this defense can slow down the Raiders running game, this thing could get ugly. Give me the Chargers!
|11-04-19||Cowboys -6.5 v. Giants||Top||37-18||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/GIANTS MNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Cowboys -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown against the Giants. These two teams played in Week 1 and the Cowboys rolled to a 35-17. They were really in complete control the whole way, leading 21-7 at the half and 35-10 going into the 4th quarter.
People are wanting to give the Giants a pass on that game because Eli Manning started, but it's not like he played bad. Manning was 30 or 44 with 306 yards and a TD (0 interceptions). How much more can the rookie Daniel Jones give them?
Dallas had that ugly 3-game losing streak before crushing the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. They took that win into the bye and that extra time to prepare for this game is huge. Philadelphia has also rolled off 2 straight wins since they beat them and they need this game to stay in front of the NFC East.
Cowboys have only been outgained in 1 game this season and that was by 9 yards at New Orleans against the Saints in a 12-10 loss. In their loss to Green Bay they outgained the Packers by 228 yards. Giants defense is awful.
Dallas is 13-2 ATS Last 15 division games and have covered 5 straight against the Giants. New York is just 2-9-1 ATS last 12 at home. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!
|11-03-19||Patriots -3 v. Ravens||20-37||Loss||-110||34 h 11 m||Show|
40* NFL (Patriots -3)
I'll take my chances with New England laying just a field goal against the Ravens. There really doesn't need to be a lot said. The Patriots are a ridiculous 46-19 (71%) ATS in their last 65 games. I get the schedule has been easy, but if you think that's why the defense has been so good you are wrong. The defense is good because Belichick is the defensive coordinator. I look for the Patriots defense to gameplan 100% around keeping Jackson in the pocket and forcing him to make throws from the pocket, something I'm still not convinced he can do consistently. This is also not the same caliber a Ravens defense as years past. Give me the Pats -3!
|11-03-19||Bucs v. Seahawks OVER 52.5||Top||34-40||Win||100||30 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5)
The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.
I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.
As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.
OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|11-03-19||Redskins v. Bills -10||9-24||Win||100||27 h 24 m||Show|
40* NFL (Bills -10)
I'll take my chances here with the Bills as a double-digit favorite against the Redskins. As soon as Washington named Haskins the starter because Keenum was out, I knew I was going to be on Buffalo. Not only do I think the Bills defense will be too much for Haskins, who has shown nothing to make you think he's ready for this stage, but I also love that we are getting Buffalo off that ugly loss to the Eagles at home last week. That almost guarantees there will be zero looking past this bad Redskins team. Look for a few Redskins turnovers to play a big part in this thing getting out of control. Give me the Bills -10!
|11-03-19||Titans v. Panthers -3||Top||20-30||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3)
I just feel like this is the ideal spot to jump on the Panthers and I think we are getting a great price due to the fact that Carolina is off that ugly 51-13 loss at San Francisco and the Titans come in off back-to-back wins and covers.
First things first, the Panthers are the first team to get their butts kicked by the 49ers. Sure the offense only had 13 points and Kyle Allen played like crap, but San Francisco hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. As for Allen and him throwing for just 158 yards with a 0-3 TD-INT ratio, that is not all that surprising against that defense. The 49ers have only given up 284 passing yards in their last 4 games combined.
Prior to that performance Allen had really been playing well. In the previous 4 games during the Panthers 4-game winning streak, he averaged 225 yards/game and posted a perfect 7-0 TD-INT ratio. Titans are just middle of the pack in passing defense and have allowed over 600 yards thru the air in their last two games.
Not only do I expect Allen to have a big bounce back performance, I think we get an unbelievable effort from the entire Panthers team. It’s so much easier to respond from a blowout loss than a game where you lose in the final seconds.
As for the Titans, I think this team is very fortunate to be 4-4. All 4 wins have come against teams who have losing records and own a combined 8-22 mark on the season. Last week they were outgained by the Bucs 389 to 246 and their only two TD drives in the first 3 quarters were off turnovers where the offense had to go 10 yards or less.
History is also on our side. Panthers are 23-6 under head coach Ron Rivera when off a road loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 under Rivera when off a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-03-19||Bears +4.5 v. Eagles||14-22||Loss||-110||27 h 55 m||Show|
40* NFL (Bears +4.5)
I'll take my chances with Chicago as a 4.5-point dog. Everyone is throwing the Bears under the bus right now and no one is picking Chicago to win this game with the Eagles coming off that big win over Buffalo. I just don't trust Philadelphia as much as others. I still think this team is overvalued because of their SB win a couple years ago. We have not seen the same Carson Wentz that was the MVP frontrunner before getting hurt a couple years ago. I think the Bears defense is going to really give Wentz and that offense fits in this game. Chicago's offense is struggling to score, but have moved the ball much better in their two games since their bye. They had almost 400 yards last week against the Chargers and just 16 points to show for it. Give me the Bears +4.5!
|10-31-19||49ers v. Cardinals +10.5||28-25||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
40* 49ERS/CARDINALS TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cardinals +10.5)
After last week’s blowout win over the Panthers, I’m seeing quite a few people in the media lay claim to the 49ers as being the best team in the NFL. As much as the San Francisco players will say they aren’t listening to the hype, it’s almost impossible not to and this just has the feeling of a game they could come out flat and possibly get beat.
One thing you can count on is the Cardinals giving everything they have in this matchup. I think a lot of people are going to look at the lopsided loss to the Saints and just assume this team won’t be able to hand with the 49ers, but that was a 8-point game going into the 4th quarter. This team had won 3 straight prior to that loss and not many teams are going to play well in New Orleans with how loaded that team is.
I’m pretty confident we see a better showing at home and let’s not forget there is a pretty significant edge for home teams in these Thursday games because of the travel for the road team on just 3 days of rest.
The 49ers defense is outstanding, but at least the Cardinals have a mobile quarterback who can escape some of that pressure, which could lead to some big plays down the field.
Also, this 49ers offense is good but not great. They scored 51 last week against the Panthers, but only had 388 total yards. If Arizona can just take care of the football they will have an excellent shot here to cover the double-digit spread. Give me the Cardinals +10.5!
|10-27-19||Packers -3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||31-24||Win||100||53 h 60 m||Show|
50* NFL PRIME TIME GAME OF THE YEAR (Packers -3.5)
I believe the drop-off from Mahomes to backup Matt Moore is significant. Moore finished with 117 yards in relief of Mahomes against the Broncos, but it wasn’t pretty for the most part. Take out the 57-yard pass to Tyreek Hill and the offense did next to nothing with him under center.
The only other scoring drives under Moore was his first series when he took over with a 1st & Goal from the 3 and had to settle for a field goal. The other came on a field goal after Denver went for it and failed on 4th down.
Green Bay’s defense is better than they showed last week against the Raiders and I expect a max effort from them in a prime time game. I just don’t see the Chiefs’ offense being able to do enough to give them a shot at winning this game or keeping it close.
As for Kansas City’s defense, I’m not reading anything into that performance against the Broncos. I don’t know what Denver is doing with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but it looks like he doesn’t want to be there and that offensive line is trash.
Based off what we have seen from this defense prior that game, I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers didn’t march the ball up and down the field. Keep in mind with KC’s offense likely limited, they should be getting pretty good field position throughout. Give me the Packers -3.5!
|10-27-19||Panthers v. 49ers -5.5||13-51||Win||101||28 h 52 m||Show|
40* NFL (49ers -5.5)
I'll take my chances with the 49ers remaining undefeated and covering the 5.5-point spread at home against the Panthers. This San Francisco defense is the real deal. The 49ers are giving up just 10.7 ppg and holding teams almost 10 points under their season average. They are only giving up 90 yards/game rushing and have been absolutely dominant against the pass, as opposing QBs are completing just 55.2% for 135 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt.
Kyle Allen has been great in relief of Cam Newton, but he's faced a bunch of average to sub-par defenses so far. I look for the 49ers to bottle up McCaffrey and for the Panthers to struggle to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the 49ers -5.5!
|10-27-19||Eagles v. Bills -120||Top||31-13||Loss||-120||25 h 55 m||Show|
50* NFL MONEY LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bills -120)
I actually think there’s quite a bit of value with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home. The Eagles are a big public team, being just a couple years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Buffalo on the other hand is not a team the public likes to back, as they just really struggle to get behind teams that win with defense.
I just don’t know what more you need to see from the Eagles to realize they are a mediocre football team. They just laid an egg in the biggest game of their season to date and did so in a nationally televised prime time game. The week before they lost by 18 to Minnesota and were down 24-3 early in that one. They also got a home loss to the Lions and defeat at Atlanta. Not to mention they had to rally from a 20-7 halftime deficit at home in Week 1 to an awful Redskins team.
They got a big win at Green Bay, but that was a Thursday Night Game where anything goes on just 3-days of rest. Their only other win is against a Jets team that was down to their 3rd string quarterback.
Buffalo is no joke. I think people are reading too much into a sloppy win against the Dolphins, because of how bad Miami is perceived to be. The important thing is they played poorly and still won. I also think people want to knock the Bills because their 5 wins have come against teams who are a combined 6-27.
I get it, but for me it’s all about how well this team played in their only loss. Buffalo fell 16-10 at home to the Patriots and should have won. They outgained New England 375 to 224 and had 23 first downs to the Patriots 11 (only lost by 6 despite a -3 turnover differential).
Another massive factor here that I feel is getting overlooked is the the fact that the Eagles are playing their 3rd straight road game. Buffalo is also not a fun or easy place to play for opposing teams. Give me the Bills -1.5!
|10-27-19||Chargers v. Bears -3.5||17-16||Loss||-110||25 h 54 m||Show|
40* NFL (Bears -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago at home against the Chargers. I know we aren't at the halfway point yet, but this feels like a must-win for the Bears, who are trying to avoid a 3rd straight loss and falling below .500 on the season. With how well Green Bay and Minnesota are playing, Chicago can't afford to fall back any further in the NFC North.
Chargers are the team they can get right against. LA continues to get all kinds of respect from the public and the books, despite the fact that they are 2-5 and have lost 5 of 6. Chargers offense has been pretty anemic this season and it's not going to get any better against an elite Chicago defense. Give me the Bears -3.5!
|10-27-19||Jets +7 v. Jaguars||15-29||Loss||-120||25 h 51 m||Show|
40* NFL (Jets +7)
I'll take my chances here with the Jets bouncing back from that ugly showing against the Patriots with an easy cover against the Jaguars. You just can't overreact to how a team plays New England, especially on just 3 days of rest, where I think Belichick's ability to gameplan gives the Pats a massive edge.
Darnold couldn't have played worse against New England, but I expect him to have a much better day at the office against a banged up Jags defense that no longer has one of the best players in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville is also a team I feel is way overvalued right now with all the hype around Minshew. Jags are just 3-4 with 3 wins against the Titans, Broncos and Bengals. Give me the Jets +7!
|10-24-19||Redskins v. Vikings OVER 42||Top||9-19||Loss||-104||46 h 59 m||Show|
50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42)
I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.
It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.
You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.
I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.
OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!
|10-21-19||Patriots -9 v. Jets||Top||33-0||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Patriots -9)
I'm rolling the dice with the Patriots. I think the big number and some injuries to the Patriots receiving corps has people thinking about taking the Jets, especially after New York just upset Dallas as a 7-point home dog last week.
I just feel the combination of MNF and people talking about how the Jets can win this game will have NE 100% locked in. I get the Pats are thin at receiver, but it doesn't matter with Tom Brady. If any team is dealing with injuries that should concern you, it's New York. Jets got 4 of their 5 starting linemen either out or question, as well as backup Kelechi Osemele. Same thing on the defensive line, where two more starters are questionable or out. They also got a ton of injuries at linebacker.
Patriots have gone 7-3-1 ATS last 11 on Monday Night Football are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs a team with a losing record and a ridiculous 40-15-2 in the month of October. Give me New England -9!
|10-20-19||Ravens v. Seahawks OVER 48.5||30-16||Loss||-110||30 h 30 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER NO-BRAINER(Over 48.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFL action. These are two teams that not long ago were known for having elite defenses, but that's not the case anymore. Both these teams are built around their talented mobile quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Jackson has the Ravens averaging 30.7 ppg and 451 ypg, while Wilson has the Seahawks at 27.5 ppg and 400 ypg. Both defenses have not been good. Baltimore is allowing 4.4 yards/rush, 61% completions, 7.7 yards/pass attempt and 6.5 yards/play. Seattle is allowing 4.7 yards/rush, 64% completions, 7 yards/pass attempt and 6.2 yards/play. BET THE OVER 48.5!
|10-20-19||Chargers v. Titans -2||20-23||Win||100||29 h 15 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (Titans -2)
I'll take my chances here with the Titans as a small home favorite against the Chargers. I love that Tennessee is making the switch from Mariota to Tannehill. I think that brings life to an offense that desperately needed a spark. I also have not been impressed with this Chargers defense of late and I don't think it's any better here with the guys they are missing up front on the defensive line. Titans on the other hand are making a huge addition to their rotation up front, as rookie DT Jeffery Simmons has been cleared to play. Tennessee drafted him No. 19, but had he not been coming off a ACL injury he would have been Top 10 and maybe Top 5. GIVE ME THE TITANS -2!
|10-20-19||Texans v. Colts -108||Top||23-30||Win||100||26 h 27 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/COLTS AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -108)
Even though a win here would propel Indy into first place in the AFC South and both teams are coming off a win against the Chiefs, I feel the public perception is that Houston is the better team. A big reason for that is the Texans got a big name quarterback in Deshaun Watson and the Colts are one of those teams that just don't wow you because they rely on their defense and run game.
I'll cover the most obvious factor favoring the Colts right away and that's Indianapolis coming off their bye. It's a huge advantage, especially this deep into the season and I just don't feel the public factors it enough into their handicapping. Not only does Indianapolis get an extra week to prepare for this matchup, this a definite letdown spot for Houston off the big win against the Chiefs and playing their second straight on the road.
Another thing here is Watson and the Texans offense has looked great the last two weeks, putting up 53 on the Falcons and 31 against the Chiefs. The thing is, both of those teams rank in the bottom 10 in total defense. Keep in mind prior to facing those two bad defenses they managed just 10 points and 264 total yards at home against the Panthers. They also had a game against a good Jags defense earlier in the year where they scored just 13 points with 263 total yards.
The Colts aren't elite defensively, but I definitely feel like they are one of the stronger teams on that side of the ball. You don't hold Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense to just 13 points in KC without being strong on that side of the ball. Indianapolis was really able to get pressure on Mahomes and play great man-to-man defense.
It's no secret the Texans offensive line is sub-par at best. Houston has only played 6 games and Watson has already been sacked 18 times. Watson, like Mahomes, also has really poor numbers against teams that can play quality man-to-man defense.Colts are also getting back one of their best defensive players in All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard, who has missed the last 3 games in concussion protocol.Let's also not overlook how well the Colts played against Houston last year. They beat them twice and their lone loss was in overtime. They also won the most important game, taking out the Texans 21-7 on the road. Led 21-0 in the 4th quarter in that playoff win and outgained Houston by 100 yards.
Going back to last season the Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 off a bye. Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me the Colts -1!
|10-20-19||Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5||27-21||Loss||-109||26 h 18 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 50.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Sunday's matchup between New York and Arizona. I think we are going to have offensive fire-works throughout. This Giants offense cooled off the last two games, but that was against two of the best defenses in the league in the Vikings and Patriots. Rookie Daniel Jones has flashed and with Saquan Barkley back I look for them to take off. At the same time the Giants defense is still bad and will struggle against a surging Cardinals offense led by rookie Kyler Murray. GIVE ME THE OVER 50.5!
|10-20-19||Raiders v. Packers UNDER 47||Top||24-42||Loss||-110||26 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense.
Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47!
|10-17-19||Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5||Top||30-6||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.
The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores.
I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.
As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.
You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.
OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!
Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards
|10-14-19||Lions +4 v. Packers||Top||22-23||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL GB vs DET MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY (Lions +4)
I'll take my chances here with Detroit cashing in as a 4-point dog. Lions aren't getting enough love here coming off their bye week. Detroit has had Green Bay's number of late. Packers offense has not been very good and will be without star wide out Devante Adams. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but they have struggled against teams with decent quarterbacks. They gave over 440 yards passing last week to Dallas. I like Patricia and the Lions to win this outright. Give me Detroit +4!
|10-13-19||Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5||33-34||Win||100||27 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think we are going to see another shootout with the Falcons, who just combined for 85 points in a 53-32 loss at Houston. Atlanta is giving up 30.4 ppg against teams that only average 23.8 ppg. They are allowing 71% completion by opposing QBs and 6.2 yards/play (7.0 yards/play on the road).
Arizona's defense isn't much better. Cardinals are allowing 27.6 ppg and 408 ypg. They too are giving up more than 6 yards/play (6.4). They can't stop the run or the pass. They are allowing 4.8 yards/carry and 7.7 yards/pass attempt.
Also, both teams are dealing with some big injuries on defense. Atlanta has already lost defensive tackle Michael Bennett and safeties Keanu Neal and Johnathan Cyprien to the IR. Safety Ricardo Allen is questionable, as is corners Desmond Trufant and Blidi Wreh-Wilson.
Arizona is still without suspended star corner Patrick Peterson (serving 6 game suspension) and corner Robert Alford (IR). Linebackers Haason Reddick and Terrell Suggs are both questionable among others. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|10-13-19||Texans v. Chiefs -4||Top||31-24||Loss||-119||93 h 58 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/CHIEFS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -4)
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with last week’s loss at home to the Colts. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t fumble that ball deep in Indy territory midway through the 2nd quarter, KC was prime to take a 7-point lead and it would have been a lot different game with the Colts playing from behind.
I would have loved to see the Chiefs run the table, but I believe losing a game like that will work in their favor. Great teams and great players respond to adversity in a big way and I think we see a much more focused Kansas City team on Sunday.
I know there’s a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs, but as long as No. 15 is behind center, it really doesn’t matter who is lined up around him. He’s going to make plays. There’s a good chance he gets back arguably the best weapon in the league outside of maybe Christian McCaffrey in wide out Tyreek Hill.
Also, one of the reasons the Colts had so much success against the Chiefs is their ability to play man defense. I don’t think the Texans pose near the threat on the defensive side of the ball. Back with Alex Smith, Reid’s offense always seemed to give Houston problems. Considering they went 22 straight games scoring at least 26 before the 13-point effort against the Colts, I’m confident they put up a big number in this one.
As for the defense and how will KC be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, I think they will look a lot better than they did against the Colts. Keep in mind Indy has a really good offensive line and was able to just run the ball at will. Texans aren’t near as good up front on the 0-line.
Another thing. Everyone is singing the praises of the Texans after their 21-point win over the Falcons, but keep in mind Atlanta actually had a 17-16 lead at the half and it was a 8-point game with less than 2 minutes to play.
Houston did finish with a 592 to 373 edge in total yards, but are 0-6 ATS under head coach Bill O’Brien after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Texans are also 0-7 ATS under O’Brien in games vs teams who average 29 or more points/game. Chiefs are 9-3 ATS last 12 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 10-4 ATS last 14 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me KC -4!
|10-13-19||Redskins -3 v. Dolphins||17-16||Loss||-119||73 h 33 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Redskins -3)
I'll take my chances with the Redskins and any other team that lines up against the Dolphins until Miami shows us they actually can be competitive. It's not just that the Dolphins are tanking, they don't have the talent to compete. I just look at how bad the Chargers are playing right now and they were able to beat the Dolphins on the road by 20.
I think because Miami is off a bye and the Redskins sitting at 0-5 and having just fired their head coach, we are getting value. Likely the last time that happens if Miami gets destroyed here. I think they will. Redskins have had two division road games and 3 home games against the likes of the Cowboys, Bears and Patriots. They aren't a good team, but are way more talented than Miami. Also, huge that Redskins are not going to Haskins and sticking with Keenum. Expect a big effort from Washington after seeing their head coach get fired. Give me the Redskins -3!
|10-13-19||Saints v. Jaguars -1.5||13-6||Loss||-115||24 h 33 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -1.5)
I think this is the ideal time to fade New Orleans, who come in having won and covered all 3 games with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterbacks. Sharp money appears to agree, as the line has moved in favor of the Jaguars, despite around 65% of the public action being on New Orleans.
I’m seeing a lot of Bridgewater praise after his big game against Tampa Bay, throwing for 314 yards and 4 scores. The thing with that, is the Buccaneers are dead last in the NFL, giving up 323.6 ypg. Quite a bit worse than 31st place Dolphins at 296.3 ypg.
In his previous two starts he had just 177 yards against the Seahawks and 193 against the Cowboys. He also had just 165 yards on 30 attempts in relief of Brees against the Rams. With or without Jalen Ramsey, this is a really good Jaguars defense. I think it’s going to be really hard for New Orleans to get that offense going.
I know the Saints defense has been unbelievable since Brees went down, but Jacksonville is not an easy place to play this time a year. With the temperatures expected in the mid 80’s, I think we see New Orleans give up a few more big plays than we have seen the last few weeks.
You have to love what Minshew has done in relief of Nick Foles and more than anything the Jaguar’s fans are 100% on board with him and this team right now. I think the fans show up in a big way for this one and this is a game Jacksonville desperately needs to win. Big difference between 3-3 and 2-4. Give me the Jaguars -1.5!
|10-13-19||Seahawks v. Browns +1.5||Top||32-28||Loss||-110||24 h 32 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Browns +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a home dog against the Seahawks. For starters, you got Seattle going west to east for an early start time, which is never easy. Seattle already did that once in Week 2 at Pittsburgh and were fortunate to beat the Steelers 28-26 and they didn't have Big Ben.
I also feel the Seahawks are overvalued coming off that 30-29 win at home against the Rams. They won that on a late TD after trailing the entire most of the 2nd half. They also had an ugly 21-20 win at home against the Bengals in Week 1 and lost at home to the Saints minus Drew Brees.
I know Cleveland just got embarrassed by the 49ers, but because that was on MNF they are even more undervalued. With Seattle likely down two offensive linemen and the Browns having a strong defensive front, I think it's going to be really hard for Russell Wilson and that Seahawks offense to move the ball.
At 2-3 and a road game at New England on deck, we know we are getting the best from Cleveland on Sunday. Give me the Browns +1.5!
|10-10-19||Giants v. Patriots OVER 41||Top||14-35||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41)
New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.
You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.
I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.
At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.
The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!
|10-07-19||Browns v. 49ers -4.5||Top||3-31||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
50* BROWNS/49ers MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with San Francisco at home against the Browns on Monday Night Football. I'm just not buying too much into Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore last week. That Ravens defense is not as good as people think. I think the key to the Browns offense going off in that game against Baltimore was due to their ability to get the running game going. I don't think they will be able to have the same kind of success on the ground against a really good 49ers front. SF is giving up just 75 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run. 49ers offense still put up 24 points despite 5 turnovers against the Steelers. Not to mention SF is coming off a bye, which is a huge advantage to them. Give me the 49ers -4.5!
|10-06-19||Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47||Top||34-24||Loss||-109||88 h 4 m||Show|
50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47!
|10-06-19||Bills v. Titans -2||Top||14-7||Loss||-110||94 h 38 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Titans -2)
These are two very similar teams, in terms of both want to grind out wins behind a strong running game and defense. I would much rather take the home team in a matchup like this. I just don’t trust bad offenses on the road, especially against a good defense.
On top of that, we don’t even know if the Bills will have their starting quarterback for this game. Allen is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go Matt Barkley would be the starter. Even if Allen plays I think Buffalo’s offense struggles, but I give the Bills no shot without him.
I also feel like this is the ideal spot to fade Buffalo. I think the Bills gained a lot of respect from the public in their loss to New England and rightfully so, but what people are overlooking is how difficult it can be for a team like Buffalo that relies so much on effort and energy to bounce back from a game like that. New England is the one team they want to beat going into the year and they have to feel like they gave the game away. Bills had 4 turnovers and had a punt blocked for a score. You outgain a team 375 to 224 and have 23 to 11 edge in first downs, you should win the game.
Another thing is that while Buffalo is a great defensive team, their strength is stopping the pass. They were No. 1 against the pass last year and are currently No. 4. The run defense is solid, but they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry on the season and giving up 4.8 yards/carry on the road. Titans clearly want to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Give me the Titans -2!
|10-06-19||Ravens -3 v. Steelers||26-23||Push||0||85 h 41 m||Show|
40* NFL (Ravens -3)
I just think Pittsburgh is getting a little too much respect here. I know they are at home, but without Big Ben given all that they lost offensively with AB and Bell, this is a 8-8 type a team. Baltimore got a humbling loss last week against the Browns and I think some of that was them suffering a bit of a letdown off that loss to the Chiefs. I just think Lamar Jackson and that offense will be too much for the Steelers to handle in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -3.
|10-06-19||Vikings -5 v. Giants||28-10||Win||100||85 h 41 m||Show|
40* NFL (Vikings -5)
I get the excitement around the Giants with them winning each of Jones’ first two starts, but let’s not overreact to a couple of wins of the Bucs and Redskins. Tampa doesn’t lay an egg in the second half they lose that game by double-digits. Last week they were basically gift-wrapped a win with Washington going to Dwayne Haskins (9 of 17 for 107 yards with 3 interceptions).
Those are also two sub-par defensive teams. Bucs rank 20th in total defense and Redskins rank 28th. Tampa is also 30th in points allowed and Washington is 31st. Minnesota ranks both 6th in total offense and total defense.
I know Cousins has not looked great early on in 2019, but I’m a lot more confident with the Vikings offense being able to sustain drives than I am with Jones and the Giants offense.
Don’t be fooled by the fact that New York only gave up 3-points last week to the Redskins. Washington ranks in the bottom 5 in both total offense and scoring offense. It was pretty evident to why Haskins had not played up until last week, the guy isn’t ready and honestly might never be. That same Giants defense let Jameis Winston throw for 380 yards and 3 scores the week before and allowed 405 yards and 4 scores to Dak Prescott earlier in the year.
The other thing is the Giants are just middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run and the Vikings come in with the 3rd ranked rushing offense at 155 yards/game (5.2 yards/carry). Also, New York just lost starting middle linebacker Ryan Connelly to a season-ending injury. Fellow inside linebackers Tae Davis and Alec Ogletree are both questionable to play, as is starting strong-side backer Lorenzo Carter. Give me the Vikings -5.
|10-06-19||Bucs +3.5 v. Saints||24-31||Loss||-120||85 h 37 m||Show|
40* NFL (Bucs +3.5)
I really like what I've seen out of the Bucs early on. This is a different team with Bruce Arians and I just think people are a little slow to buy into them because of Jameis Winston. Tampa has just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. They went into LA and laid it on the Rams last week. I know the Saints are off an impressive win at home over Dallas, but I think some of that was the Cowboys not being as good as we thought given their easy schedule and the boost they got from it being a prime time game. I just don't know how you trust the Saints with how much the offense has struggled to score with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. Give me Tampa Bay +3.5!
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks OVER 49||Top||29-30||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.
Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.
As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.
You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.
Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-30-19||Bengals v. Steelers -3||Top||3-27||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/BENGALS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (on Steelers -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against the Bengals. This just too good a price to pass up with Pittsburgh in a prime time game home. Mason Rudolph is going to be better than he was last week against the 49ers. Bengals don't have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball and are really thin up front on the d-line.
I definitely don't trust Andy Dalton in big games. He's still without his best weapon in A.J. Green and now must go without starting left tackle Cordy Glenn. If the Bills weren't so anemic offensively they would have lost by a lot more last week. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Steelers -3!
|09-29-19||Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints||10-12||Loss||-106||101 h 33 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/SAINTS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -2.5)
I get the Saints rolled last week at Seattle, but the Seahawks don’t look right. I get a lot of the yards Seattle racked up came late with the game out of reach, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Seahawks outgained New Orleans 515 to 265.
What really decided that game was the fact that the Saints scored 2 non-offensive touchdowns. They got a 53-yard punt return for a TD in the 1st quarter and a 33-yard fumble return in the 2nd quarter. Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 touchdowns, but was just 19 of 27 for 177 yards.
Keep in mind the offense was also awful after Brees went down in Week 2 against the Rams. New Orleans could only muster 3 field goals with Bridgewater running the show and he was just 17 of 30 for 165 yards. I don’t know how you can trust this offense at basically a pick’em against one of the better teams in the league.
On top of that, the Saints defense has not been good. New Orleans ranks 26th in the league against the run (134.7 ypg) and are 31st against the pass (319.0 ypg). Dallas has the 3rd ranked offense in the league right now, ranking 3rd in rushing (179 ypg) and 7th in passing (306.7 ypg).
You also have to factor in that these are two teams that a lot of people think will be a factor in the NFC playoffs. Given the chance that this game could potentially decide who gets a first round bye or home field in a playoff matchup, I just don’t see the Cowboys losing here. Give me Dallas -2.5!
|09-29-19||Redskins +3 v. Giants||Top||3-24||Loss||-100||42 h 36 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Redskins +3)
I'll take my chances here with Washington as a small road dog against the Giants. The public can't get enough of Daniel Jones right now and I think it has NY overvalued. Sure he played great in the win against TB last week, but they lost their best player in Saquan Barkley. Washington will be able to gameplan more for Jones, as they won't have to respect the run as much. I also think the Redskins are the better team despite the worse record. Giants defense is awful and I think Washington will have no problem moving the ball. I don't think it will be as easy for NY's offense. Give me the Redskins +3!
|09-29-19||Raiders +7 v. Colts||31-24||Win||100||42 h 31 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7)
I'll take my chances here with Oakland getting a touchdown here against a banged up Colts team. I think Indy is getting a little too much love right now for their 2-1 start. They beat the Titans and Falcons and were lucky to win both of those. I get Brissett is playing well, but this is not a playoff team without Luck. Neither are the Raiders, but I don't think Oakland is as worse off as this line suggest. Raiders may have played the best team from each conference the last two weeks. I wouldn't be shocked if Oakland won this game outright. GIve me the Raiders +7!
|09-29-19||Chargers -14 v. Dolphins||Top||30-10||Win||100||41 h 25 m||Show|
50* NFL PUBLIC BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chargers -14)
I'll take my chances with Los Angeles laying only 14 against the Dolphins. Unless I missed something, Miami still wants absolutely nothing to do with winning games this season. They are off to a historically bad start and I don't think it's a fluke at all. There is no talent on this team. They have scored 16 points in 3 games and allowed 133. I get the Chargers are banged up, but they got enough talent on defense to keep Miami off the scoreboard and Rivers is playing QB. Give me Los Angeles -14!
|09-29-19||Chiefs -6.5 v. Lions||34-30||Loss||-105||41 h 22 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ATS PERSONAL FAVORITE (Chiefs -6.5)
I'll take my chances with Kansas City winning by at least a touchdown on Sunday. Lions are not as good as their 2-0-1 record might lead you to believe. At the same time, the Chiefs are better than anticipated and that offense is going to have a field day on the fast inside turf at the dome. I also think KC's defense is better than it's getting credit for right now. They just played a dynamic QB in Lamar Jackson, who makes something out of nothing. Lions got Stafford playing on a bum hip and they have not ran the ball great this year. I don't see Detroit keeping pace with the reigning MVP. Give me Kansas City -6.5!
|09-26-19||Eagles v. Packers OVER 46||Top||34-27||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.
I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.
Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.
As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.
OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.
OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!
|09-23-19||Bears -5 v. Redskins||Top||31-15||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
50* BEARS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Bears -5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago covering the spread as a 5-point road favorite against the Redskins. Usually I would be tempted to take the home dog on MNF, but I don't like this Redskins team at all right now. Washington just doesn't have the playmakers on offense or the talent on defense to be all that competitive, especially with all the guys they are missing right now. Bears offense has struggled, but the defense has been great. I think Chicago's defense dominates this matchup and we finally see Tribusky and the offense get going. Give me the Bears -5!
|09-22-19||Giants +7 v. Bucs||32-31||Win||100||113 h 48 m||Show|
40* NFL AFTERNOON ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +7)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a touchdown dog against the Bucs. I love the fact that NY decided to bench Eli Manning in favor of the rookie Daniel Jones. I really liked what I saw out of Jones in the preseason and I expect him to play well.
As for the Bucs, I think they are getting a little too much love after beating the Panthers in Week 2. Jameis Winston can not be trusted to take care of the ball and this not a team that has really impressed on the offensive side of the ball. They want to be more of a running team, but are only averaging 3.9 yards/carry. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants won this game outright. Give me New York +7!
|09-22-19||Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5||Top||28-33||Loss||-109||110 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL WK 3 VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Kansas City winning by at least at TD at home against the Ravens. The public has really fallen into the Lamar Jackson hype and we saw that with how many people looked to back them last week as a double-digit favorite against the Cardinals. To me this line is begging the public to take Baltimore, which only makes me like Kansas City more.
I get the love for Jackson. He's putting up crazy numbers, but unlike a lot of people I'm not completely on board with him as a pocket passer. His huge stateline from Week 1, where he threw for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns is going to look a lot less impressive the more beatings the Dolphins take. Miami is as bad a team as I can remember. They have officially brought tanking to the NFL.
There's nothing wrong with throwing for 272 yards and 2 scores, but Matt Stafford had 385 and 3 scores against the Cardinals in Week 1. Not to mention they only managed to score 23 points with Jackson throwing for 272 and rushing for 120.
Last year Jackson only threw for 147 yards against a Chiefs defense that was arguably the worst in the league. He also only had 67 rushing yards on 14 attempts.
This Chiefs defense isn't elite by any means, but I definitely think it's improved over last year. More than anything, you have to factor in how much better their defense tends to play at home compared to on the road. The atmosphere at Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being their home opener and how excited everyone is about this team.
I think they can contain the Ravens offense and we know we are going to get a big game from Mahomes. I don't care what the Baltimore defense did in Week 1 against the Dolphins. I'm focused on rookie Kyler Murray torching that secondary for 349 yards. Ravens defense is not as good as it was a year ago. They added Earl Thomas, but they lost Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle, and Za'Darius Smith. They are already down starting corner Jimmy Smith and backup corner Tavon Young.
One thing I've really been impressed with Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid is how they are able to adjust what teams are doing against them. I think playing against this Don Martindale defense last year will definitely work in their favor. Give me the Chiefs -6.5.
|09-22-19||Raiders +10 v. Vikings||14-34||Loss||-130||110 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Raiders +10)
This might become a reoccurring theme for me, but I think we are seeing the Raiders way undervalued after a bad loss at home to the Chiefs. I was all over Jacksonville in Week 2 after they got embarrassed by KC. I just don't think people realize how good Mahomes is playing.
Outside of the 2nd quarter where Mahomes went off, Oakland's defense really played well. That's after a strong showing in Week 1 against the Broncos. I think the Raiders are better defensively than people get credit for.
Vikings are a good team, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win here by double-digits. I still have major concerns with the offense and it's ability to score. If Minnesota doesn't bring their "A" game, I think Oakland could win here outright. Give me the Raiders +10!
|09-22-19||Falcons v. Colts -1||24-27||Win||100||110 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1)
I'll take my chances here with Indianapolis at basically a pick'em at home against the Falcons. I'll be the first to admit I thought the Colts were in serious trouble when Luck went down. I don't think I was alone. I still think there's a lack of trust with Indy in terms of how the public views them.
Not me. I like what I've seen out of Jacoby Brissett and this is a team that now wants to beat you with a strong running game and defense. For them to put up 203 yards rushing on the Chargers and then another 167 against the Titans, is real impressive.
Falcons are coming off a big win at home against a Eagles team that really hasn't looked great. They had to rally from way back to avoid losing as a double-digit favorite to the Redskins in Week 1. I still think back to Week 1 when Atlanta managed just 12 points against the Vikings.
Brissett is 6-2 ATS as a favorite. Falcons just 1-8 ATS last 9 with Matt Ryan as their starter against a team with a similar win percentage. Atlanta is also a mere 4-13 under head coach Dan Quinn in non-conference games. Give me the Colts -1!
|09-22-19||Bengals v. Bills -6||Top||17-21||Loss||-101||110 h 34 m||Show|
50* AFC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE YEAR (Bills -6)
I'll take my chances here with the Bills winning by at least a touchdown at home. I played against Cincinnati last week in my biggest play of Week 2 and cashed in an easy winner as the 49ers won 41-17 as a mere 1-point home favorite.
I'm not about to sit here and tell you Buffalo is a great team, but I love this matchup. Bengals offensive line has shown me nothing. Dalton has been under a ton of pressure and they had just 34 rushing yards in Week 1 and 25 in Week 2. All their damage has come via the passing game. Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and look every bit as good on that side this year.
Bengals won't be able to score and while the Bills aren't an offensive juggernaut, they likely need to hit around 24 to cash in a cover. I could see them scoring even more with a few big turnovers. Give me Buffalo -6!
|09-19-19||Titans v. Jaguars +2||Top||7-20||Win||100||21 h 5 m||Show|
50* NFL TITANS/JAGS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jaguars +2)
I was against Jacksonville in Week 1 at home against the Chiefs and was all over them as a 9-point dog in Week 2. Given how big an advantage it is for the home team in these Thursday games on short rest, I would actually have Jacksonville favored here.
Two big reasons why I like the Jaguars last week against Houston, is I was confident Jacksonville’s defense was way better than it looked against the Chiefs (Mahomes will make any defense out there look bad) and I liked what I saw from rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew.
While the concerns over the defense aren’t likely there, I still think people will be scared to back Minshew against a strong Titans defense. It’s not easy for any unit playing on just 3 days of rest, but I think it’s really hard on the road team to play well defensively in these games.
There’s also nothing about the Tennessee offense that gets me excited. They are as conservative as anyone with all the running and short passes they use. A lot of people will point to the 43 points they scored at Cleveland in Week 1, but I don’t think that Brown’s defenses is as good as people think and the Titans only had 15 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
Titans are not the team you want to be taking in this spot, as they are just 16-34-3 in their last 53 vs a team with a losing record. They are also just 4-12-1 ATS last 17 on the road vs a team with a losing home record.
I know it’s early, but there’s a big difference in the locker room for teams that are 1-1 and teams that are 0-2. Jacksonville will be treating this like there season is on the line. Give me the Jags +2!
|09-16-19||Browns -6.5 v. Jets||Top||23-3||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns -6.5)
I maybe could have got to taking New York as a small home dog with Darnold, but no way am I putting my money on Trevor Siemian. Going back to 2016, out of all the quarterbacks with a 1,000 plays, he’s got the worst QBR out of all of them at 42.1. Just slightly ahead of Brock Osweiler at 46.1, Eli Manning at 47 and Blake Bortles at 48.6.
I think the Browns defense is going to make it really difficult on this Jets offense with Siemen under center. I have to think they are going to load the box to keep Bell in check and dare him to make plays down the field.
I also think Cleveland’s defense is a lot better than people might be thinking after they gave up 43 points to the Titans. That was a 15-13 game in the 3rd quarter before Tennessee’s Derrick Henry caught a 75-yard TD pass. Browns started pressing and gave up 21 points in the 4th.
As for Cleveland’s offense, the biggest thing people need to realize with that poor showing is they were going up against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. They were also 6th in the league vs the pass. I think the Browns thought it was going to be a lot easier than it turned out to be.
I think this is a good spot for the Browns offense to get back on track. I wouldn’t read anything into the Jets strong defensive game against the Bills. Buffalo’s offense looks to be every bit as anemic as it was in 2018. Jets defense should be improved, but you have to wonder how they can hold up with an offense that figures to struggle to score. Give me the Browns -6.5.
|09-15-19||Bears -2.5 v. Broncos||16-14||Loss||-110||90 h 60 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago bouncing back from that ugly showing in Week 1. Bears offense looked really bad in a 10-3 loss to the Packers, but I think people are really underestimating how good Green Bay is defensively this year. The game plan wasn't up to par and I don't see Matt Nagy and his staff laying another egg here.
More than anything, this is no where close to the Broncos teams of years past. Denver still has Von Miller, but are not nearly as good in the secondary Derek Carr only had 4 incompletions and wasn't sacked once.
I also did not like what I saw from Joe Flacco and that Denver offense. He made some really poor throws on what should have been easy completions. The offensive line is not great and they lack some serious playmakers at the skill positions. Chicago's defense will eat this offense up. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-15-19||Saints v. Rams -2.5||Top||9-27||Win||100||90 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL RAMS/SAINTS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Rams laying a short number at home against the Saints. I just don't get why there isn't more hype around this Rams team. Even after going on the road and getting a win at Carolina, which is not easy to do, people still aren't talking about this team like they were a year ago.
I love that, as it keeps the Rams focused on the task at hand. There's gonna be a ton of talk leading up to this game about the non-call on PI in the NFC Championship Game. I think LA will be sick of hearing how they should have lost and they make a statement here.
Let's not forget the Saints are coming off a emotional roller-coaster in their win on Monday Night Football against the Texans. They got 1 less day of prep and a long way to travel. I think they struggle to keep pace with the Rams on Sunday. Give me Los Angeles -2.5!
|09-15-19||Jaguars +9 v. Texans||12-13||Win||100||99 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL EASY MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Jaguars +9)
I'll take my chances here with the Jags getting a big number against the Texans. I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the Jaguars ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and the fact they lost their starting quarterback in Foles. No way is the public going to want to back Jacksonville on the road and I feel the books are taking full advantage of that by posting an inflated number.
The biggest thing for me and the Jaguars lopsided loss to Kansas City, is I wasn’t the least bit surprised. The Chiefs were one of my favorite plays in Week 1. There’s not many teams in the NFL that can score with Kansas City. I’m not about to write off Jacksonville’s defense because they couldn’t stop Mahomes and all those weapons they have on the offensive side of the ball. In fact, I still think it’s one of the more talented defensive units in the league.
I think that defense is going to have a big bounce back performance against the Texans. Clearly there’s still a lot of problems with the Houston offensive line if Watson is getting hit 11 times and sacked 6 times. While the Jags didn’t record a sack in Week 1, they put a ton of pressure on Mahomes. I think they can control the line of scrimmage and force some big turnovers with that pressure.
As for as the Foles injury is concerned, that’s a tough blow for this team. However, I watched that entire game and I was really impressed with what I saw from Gardner Minshew in relief. If wasn’t against a Chiefs defense that no one thinks highly of, I think people would be raving about how well this kid played in his first NFL action. I don’t care who it’s against, you are doing something right if you complete 22 of 25 for 275 against a defense that knows you have to throw playing from behind.
I get the Saints are great offensive team, but at the same time, this not as talented a defense without Clowney in the front seven. Not only did Brees carve them up for 370 yards and 2 scores, New Orleans averaged 7.0 yards/carry on the ground.
Best part about all of this is we don’t need the Jaguars to win. All they have to do is lose by single-digits and I think they do that without any problem.
|09-15-19||49ers +2.5 v. Bengals||Top||41-17||Win||100||86 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers. I was really high on this San Francisco team coming into the year and really wasn’t expecting much of the Bengals, especially early on without star wideout A.J. Green. I think we are getting a gift here with the 49ers as a dog.
I’m not sold on the Bengals offense. It looks nice to have a quarterback throw for 400+ yards, but part of that was Cincinnati having no choice but to throw with how their running game was struggling. Bengals only had 34 rushing yards on 14 attempts, which is 2.4 yards/carry. The other stat that jumps out to me is that Seattle sacked Dalton 5 times.
When you can't run the ball and give up a bunch of sacks, that tells me there’s some problems up front on the offensive line. Also, when you can’t run it makes it really tough in the red zone. Note that both of the Bengals TD’s came on long passes and one was on a flea-flicker and the other came via a bad play by the defender.
While the offense wasn’t great in the opener, the 49ers defense played great. They made life a living hell for Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston. Not only did they intercept him twice, they sacked him 3 times made several more plays in the backfield. San Francisco has a ton of 1st round picks in their front seven, so I don’t think that performance was a fluke.
As for the 49ers offense, they did left some plays out there they should have had. I think the offense is actually helping us here. They certainly wouldn’t be a dog if the offense had played better. I still like the talent on that side of the ball and expect them to bounce back with a big game here. Give me the 49ers +2.5!
|09-15-19||Bills v. Giants +2||28-14||Loss||-110||86 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +2)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a home dog against the Bills. Buffalo has no business being a road favorite here. The Bills pulled out a 17-16 win against the Jets in Week 1, but trailed 16-0 in the 3rd quarter before the Jets imploded.
No way do I trust that Buffalo offense on the road. Josh Allen threw 2 picks and I'm not really sold on the Jets defense. Giants didn't look great in a 35-17 loss to the Cowboys, but Dallas looks like it has the goods this year. New York was also a lot more competitive than the final score, as they were only outgained by 24 yards and actually had 2 more first downs.
Eli Manning played really well with 306 yards on 30 of 44 passing. If he keeps playing like that this offense is going to be just fine with how much teams have to respect the run game with Saquan Barkley. I think NY wins and wins big. Give me the Giants +2!
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers -6.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||45 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL BUCS/PANTHERS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -6.5)
I know this might seem like a big number, but I would still take my chances with the home team laying less than a touchdown on Thursday Night Football. There’s such a huge advantage, even this early in the season, for the team that gets to host these games on just 3 days of rest.
I also just feel like the Panthers are the better team and there might be some overreaction to them losing at home to the Rams. More so with how the offense struggled to get anything going. Los Angeles has a pretty darn good defense.
I also am not reading too much into the Bucs strong defensive showing against the 49ers. San Francisco was really sloppy on offense and left a lot of points out there. Defense is also the unit that seems to have the most problems with playing up to their potential in these Thursday games.
While I’m not a huge Cam Newton fan, especially if he doesn’t run as much, I like him a lot more than Winston. He just isn’t good under pressure and Carolina has a really strong defensive front. Panthers did a really good job of limiting Jared Goff and the Rams passing attack. Goff had just 186 yards on 39 attempts (4.8 yards/attempt). I could see this spiraling out of control for TB if they fall behind and have to throw the ball a lot.
Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after giving up 30 or more points in their previous game. Bucs on the other hand have gone just 1-5 ATS last 6 after giving up 30 or more and are 0-5 ATS last 5 games played on Thursday. Give me the Panthers -6.5.
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||Top||28-30||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52!
|09-08-19||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||3-33||Loss||-120||22 h 14 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/PAT SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Steelers +6)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers to cover the 6 at New England. Note that I like this before the Pats added Antonio Brown. I like it even more after the news. The fact that Belichick and Brady got Brown has to absolutely piss off the Steelers. Keep in mind they blocked a trade with NE because they didn't want him to go a rival. I think it's a bit of a distraction for NE and more than anything, I like the talent the Steelers have on both sides of the ball. Give me Pittsburgh +6!
|09-08-19||49ers +1.5 v. Bucs||31-17||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers at basically a pick'em at Tampa Bay. I really like Bruce Arians, but I'm not convinced he's going to have Tampa into a serious NFC contender in his first season. I don't trust Jameis Winston in the slightest with his decision making. As for the 49ers, this is a team that I think is a lot better than people realize. Jimmy G is a franchise QB and they got all kinds of first round talent on that defensive front. I think SF will be living in the Bucs backfield and could turn this into a blowout. Give me the 49ers +1.5!
|09-08-19||Lions v. Cardinals +3||Top||27-27||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona. I'm fully on board the Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray bandwagon. I think Arizona's offense is going to have a similar jump in production to when McVay took over that awful Rams offense a couple years back. As for the defense, they are better on that side than people realize. I absolutely loved the addition of linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's still a top tier player in this league, but it's his leadership that will really help the other guys on defense. Give me the Cardinals +3!
|09-08-19||Chiefs -3 v. Jaguars||Top||40-26||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/JAGS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3)
I'll gladly back the Chiefs at -3 on the road against the Jags. It will be hard for me to not take KC laying less than a touchdown this season. I just think this is the best team in the league and that's factoring in AB going to NE. There's no stopping this Chiefs offense unless they get ravaged by injuries. I think the big thing holding people back is their defense was really bad last year. I think it's going to be really improved, especially against the run, which is what the Jags want to do offensively. GIve me the Chiefs -3!
|09-08-19||Titans v. Browns -5.5||43-13||Loss||-105||15 h 56 m||Show|
40* TITANS/BROWNS ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Browns -5.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland winning by at least 6 at home against the Titans. I don't think this is going to be close at all. I get the Browns are getting a ton of hype, but for good reason. Tennessee just doesn't impress me that much and that offense looked horrific in the preseason. I don't see them coming out and lighting up this Browns defense, which I think is better than people realize. Give me the Browns -5.5!
|09-05-19||Packers v. Bears -3||Top||10-3||Loss||-110||261 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL PACKERS/BEARS NFC NORTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bears -3)
I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Bears at home. There’s a lot of really good teams in the NFC, but you could definitely make an argument for the Bears to be the team to beat.
I think Green Bay can sometimes get classed in the upper-tier of the NFC when they shouldn’t and that’s just simply the respect people have for Aaron Rodgers. As long as he’s healthy this team will be a contender, but winning on the road against a team like Chicago in a prime time game is asking a lot.
I get a change needed to be made, I’m just not convinced LaFleur is the answer. I mean it took this guy 3/4 the season last year to figure out that the Titans should be running their offense thru Derrick Henry. There’s also already some rumblings that LaFleur and Rodgers aren’t quite on the same page.
I also think Green Bay has done a poor job both with the offensive line and getting in the type of playmakers that can make a difference. People forget how much better Rodgers makes receivers look than they actually are. I just don’t see this offense being able to sustain drives against this Bears defense.
On the flip side of this, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t exactly wow you on paper. Packers ranked 18th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last year. Bears offense is better than it gets credit for. Keep in mind they installed a whole new offense just last year when they hired Nagy to be their head coach. They should be a lot more familiar with the offense and that should lead to better results. Give me the Bears -3.
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||53 h 36 m||Show|
50* SUPER BOWL 53 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Rams +3)
I just think because of the Patriots track record we are seeing people do a complete 180 with this team. A lot of people were on the Chiefs to take down the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I think those same people who bet against New England are backing the Patriots this time around.
It certainly seems to be that way based on the early numbers, as I'm showing close to 65% of the action coming in on New England. If I've learned anything, you don't want to be on that popular side for the big game. In fact, the underdog has covered the Super Bowl in 8 of the last 10. Two of the favorites to cover were the Patriots, but both were a bit lucky. New England won 28-24 back in Super Bowl 49 over Seattle on that interception on the goal line. The other was that crazy comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, where they covered as a 3-point favorite in overtime.
In terms of experience and long-term accomplishments, the edge goes to the Patriots, but as far as this game is concerned, I think the Rams are the better team. Keep in mind we have seen two young offensive minded guys really give New England trouble the last two Super Bowls. Two years ago it was Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and last year it was Doug Pederson with the Eagles. This time it's Sean McVay of the Rams, who I think is the cream of the crop right now in terms of a young offensive minded coaches in the NFL.
I think McVay is going to learn a lot with how New England tried to slow down the Chiefs offense and will focus on the adjustments that Kansas City made in the 2nd half. I just feel really confident that the Rams will be able to score.
What makes me really like Los Angeles is their defense. Most notably their dynamic defensive tackle duo of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. As we saw with the Chiefs, having great outside pass rushers doesn't do ya whole lot against Brady and that dink and dunk Patriots offense. To disrupt that offense you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle. I think they do just that and will make enough plays to get the win. Give me the Rams +3!