Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 111 h 38 m | Show | |
9* NFL Bengals/Titans SHARP STAKE PLAY ON TENNESSEE TITANS +2.5 |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 53 m | Show |
10* NFL Ravens/Browns VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5 |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 111 h 39 m | Show |
10* NFL Dolphins/Bills VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON BUFFALO BILLS -2.5 |
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09-28-23 | Lions -1.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
10* NFL Lions/Packers VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON DETROIT LIONS -1.5 |
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09-25-23 | Rams +2 v. Bengals | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* NFL Rams/Bengals VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON LOS ANGELES RAMS +2 |
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09-24-23 | Steelers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 23-18 | Win | 100 | 117 h 18 m | Show |
10* NFL Steelers/Raiders SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5 |
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09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 1 m | Show | |
9* NFL Chargers/Vikings SHARP STAKE PLAY ON MINNESOTA VIKINGS PK |
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09-24-23 | Saints +2.5 v. Packers | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 110 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NFL Saints/Packers SHARP STAKE PLAY ON NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +2.5 |
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09-24-23 | Colts +8 v. Ravens | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 110 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NFL Colts/Ravens SHARP STAKE PLAY ON INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +8 |
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09-24-23 | Titans v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 1 m | Show |
10* NFL Titans/Browns AFC PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5 |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* NFL Giants/49ers VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON GIANTS/49ERS OVER 43.5 |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
10* NFL Browns/Steelers VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -122 | 35 h 47 m | Show |
10* NFL Dolphins/Patriots VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3 |
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09-17-23 | Giants -5.5 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 54 m | Show | |
9* NFL Giants/Cardinals SHARP STAKE PLAY ON NEW YORK GIANTS -5.5 |
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09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +7.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
10* NFL 49ers/Rams VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON LOS ANGELES RAMS +7.5 |
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09-17-23 | Seahawks v. Lions -5.5 | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NFL Seahawks/Lions SHARP STAKE PLAY ON DETROIT LIONS -5.5 |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -118 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
9* NFL Ravens/Bengals SHARP STAKE PLAY ON CINCINNATI BENGALS -3 |
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09-17-23 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 41 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
9* NFL Bears/Bucs SHARP STAKE PLAY ON BEARS/BUCS OVER 41 |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 95 h 54 m | Show |
10* NFL Chiefs/Jaguars VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3 |
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09-14-23 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 49 | Top | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10* NFL Vikings/Eagles VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON VIKINGS/EAGLES OVER 49 |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
10* NFL Bills/Jets VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS +2.5 |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 46 m | Show |
10* NFL Cowboys/Giants VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5 |
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09-10-23 | Packers +1 v. Bears | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 50 m | Show | |
9* NFL Packers/Bears SHARP STAKE PLAY ON GREEN BAY PACKERS +1 |
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09-10-23 | Titans v. Saints -3 | 15-16 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 55 m | Show | |
9* NFL Titans/Saints SHARP STAKE PLAY ON NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars -4.5 v. Colts | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show | |
9* NFL Jaguars/Colts SHARP STAKE PLAY ON JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -4.5 |
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09-10-23 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show | |
9* NFL Panthers/Falcons SHARP STAKE PLAY ON ATLANTA FALCONS -3.5 |
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09-10-23 | Bucs +5.5 v. Vikings | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 26 m | Show | |
9* NFL Bucs/Vikings SHARP STAKE PLAY ON TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +5.5 |
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09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 27 m | Show |
10* NFL Bengals/Browns VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON CLEVELAND BROWNS +3 |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 53 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* NFL Lions/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON LIONS/CHIEFS OVER 53 |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs +1.5 v. Eagles | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chiefs/Eagles Super Bowl ATS SLAUGHTER PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +1.5: All I've heard leading up to this game is that Philadelphia has the better team and if the Chiefs didn't have Mahomes there's no way KC could beat this team. Mahomes is great, but there's a lot more talent on this Chiefs team than they are getting credit for and I think those other 52 guys are going to come out with a massive chip on their shoulder in this game. I'm not saying the Eagles aren't a very good football team, but you can't not factor in the schedule. Philly played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Chiefs played one of the hardest. Yet these two teams finished the regular-season with the same 14-3 record. KC's three losses came by 4 points or fewer. I don't know that Philly goes 14-3 if you give them the Chiefs' schedule. I'm also not convinced they beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship if Purdy doesn't get hurt on the first series. Yes, the offensive and defensive lines for the Eagles are very good, but it's not like these two units are going up against a cupcake on the other side. The Chiefs also have one of the best offensive lines in the league and there d-line has played great in the playoffs. If KC's line can put up some resistance and Mahomes isn't running for his life, I think the Chiefs are going to have no problem moving the football. I don't know that it's going to be as easy for the Eagles offense, especially if KC gets any sort of lead and forces the Eagles to throw it more than they would like. Either way, I feel Mahomes and the Chiefs are being extremely disrespected in this game and they are the better team with the best quarterback on the planet. Give me Kansas City +1.5! |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -1.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC Championship VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5: I will gladly take my chances with the Chiefs as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. The betting public is all over Cincinnati in this one. Bengals have had the Chiefs number of late and there's some uncertainty to just how healthy Mahomes is going to be after suffering a high ankle sprain in KC's win last week against the Jaguars. Chiefs blew big leads in both losses to the Bengals last year and were missing several key guys on both sides of the ball in the loss to Cincinnati during the regular season this year. All 3 wins were by a mere 3 points. There's not a team KC would rather have to beat to get back to the Super Bowl. Add in all the Bengals trash talk with the "Burrowhead" comments and what not, has really made this game personal. I'm not concerned with Mahomes being 100% or not with that ankle. He certainly hasn't looked that hobbled in practice and it's not like he can't be great by throwing out of the pocket. The big thing that I think is getting overlooked in this game is the Bengals' offensive line. They have lost 3 starters down the stretch from a unit that lacks depth. That weakness wasn't a big factor against the Bills for a couple of reasons. One, Buffalo's defensive front hasn't been the same since losing Von Miller. Second, the o-line was helped out tremendously by all the snow last week. It's a lot harder for the defensive to get off the ball when it's a sloppy field like that. This is a much better front for the Chiefs and a game where I think Chris Jones could dominate. The fact that KC was a TD favorite in last year's AFC Championship Game speaks to the value we are getting in this one. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Chiefs ended up winning this game going away. Give me Kansas City -1.5! |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
9* Bengals/Bills Div RD ATS ANNIHILATOR PLAY ON BUFFALO BILLS -5.5: I got to take Buffalo laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bengals on Sunday. As much respect as I have for Joe Burrow and this Bengals team, I just think the injuries up front on the offensive line are going to be too much to overcome. In the last month Cincinnati has lost 3 starters up front. They lost starting right tackle La'el Collins, starting left tackle Jonah Williams and starting right guard Alex Cappa. I know the Ravens defense was one of the best in the NFL, but Cincinnati's offense was able to manage just 234 total yards in their win 24-17 win over Baltimore. Bills are down a few guys on defense, but should still have their way up front with the patch work offensive line of the Bengals. On the flip side of this, I think Josh Allen and the Bills offense is back to what we saw early in the year. There was a stretch where Allen just wasn't 100% as he dealt with an elbow injury. That seems to have healed just in time. It won't be as easy as it was last week against the Dolphins bad defense, but I trust Buffalo a lot more to put points on the board. Give me the Bills -5.5! |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -9 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
9* Jaguars/Chiefs AFC Div Rd NO-BRAINER PLAY CHIEFS -9: Should have jumped on this one earlier at a better price, but how do we not bet the Chiefs in this game. I hear a lot of people picking the Jags as their favorite upset play of the week. The lack of respect people have with Mahomes and this team is laughable. Jacksonville isn't going into Kansas City in January and making a game of it. When these two teams played in the regular season, the Chiefs won that game 27-17 with a 486 to 315 edge in total yards. KC won that game by double-digits, despite being -3 in the turnover department. Most teams lose by double-digits with that kind of a turnover margin. Not that the Chiefs didn't try in the regular-season, but I do think there's another level they can take their game to in the playoffs. This team has been here before. Jags haven't. I don't think Jacksonville is ready for this stage. Not against Mahomes at Arrowhead. Lawrence may not have intended to piss off Chiefs Kingdom, but him saying the Jags fans are on the same level as them was a mistake. I don't think Jacksonville will is going to be up to the challenge on either side of the ball. It's a big number and why it's not a bigger play, but my money is on KC to roll on Saturday. Give me the Chiefs -9! |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Cowboys/Bucs OVER 45.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 45.5 in Monday's NFC Wild Card showdown between the Cowboys and Bucs. I'm well aware that Tampa Bay beat Dallas by a score of just 19-3 during the regular-season. That was back in Week 1. I'm focused more on what I've seen from these two teams over the last 4-6 weeks of the regular-season. For Dallas, they have really had to rely heavily on their offense, as the defense that looked so good early on in the year has been exposed on several occasions. The OVER had cashed in 5 straight before they went UNDER in their last two. Thing is in Week 17 they played at the Titans who have no offense and were resting guys leading up to their big game vs the Jags in Week 18. Dallas then had a pretty meaningless game in Week 18 at Washington and it showed in their 6-26 loss. Tampa Bay's defense is good and does matchup well with their ability to stop the run, but Dak should be able to exploit this season for the Bucs. TB was great at holding bad offenses with average QBs in check, but they struggled against the more efficient QBs. As for the Tampa Bay offense, I think they showed a lot of good signs down the stretch. Brady threw for 411 yards in their division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 17. I'm pretty confident the Bucs will move the ball in this one. I just think there's going to be more than enough scoring to get this game into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5! |
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01-15-23 | Ravens +8.5 v. Bengals | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
10* NFL Wild Card Sunday VEGAS INSIDER: Baltimore Ravens +8.5 I'll take my chances with Baltimore as a 8.5-point dog against the Bengals on Wild Card Sunday. Yes, Cincinnati just beat the Ravens 27-16 at home in Week 18 to lock up the AFC North title. It never really felt like it was that close, as the Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 lead and led 24-7 at the half. Most are going to just assume Cincinnati is going to roll again at home against these Ravens. I'm not as convinced. Not enough is being made about Baltimore's defense and the job it did against this Bengals offense. Cincinnati was only able to put up 257 total yards. Baltimore had 386 total yards averaging 5.1 yards/play to the Bengals 4.0. Ravens rested two of their biggest offensive weapons in running back J.K. Dobbins and tight end Mark Andrews. They also were down to 3rd string rookie quarterback Anthony Brown. While Brown is expected to see some action in this one, 2nd string quarterback Tyler Huntley is expected to play. It feels like no one is giving this Ravens team any chance of winning this game. I just think that's a big mistake with how well this Baltimore defense is playing. If they can get the run game going with Dobbins, they got a legit shot to pull off the upset. Either way, I think they keep this to a 1-score game. Give me the Ravens +8.5! |
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01-14-23 | Chargers -2 v. Jaguars | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* NFL Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER: Chargers -2 I'll take my chances with the Chargers as a 2-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Saturday's AFC Wild Card matchup. You got to tip your hat to Jacksonville for turning their season around, but the only reason this team is in the playoffs is because they won a bad division (AFC South). They also benefited from an extremely easy schedule down the stretch. In their 5 game winning streak to end the year, they played the Titans twice, Cowboys at home, Jets and the Texans. The win over Dallas was impressive, but they also had to come from way behind to win that game. Justin Herbert should be able to exploit a bad Jaguars secondary. At the same time, I don't see the Jacksonville offense doing a whole lot. Give me the Chargers -2! |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Patriots +7.5 I'm going to take the New England Patriots as a 7.5-point road dog against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It's extremely unfortunate what happened to Bills' safety Damar Hamlin on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. I want nothing but the best for that kid and for him to make a full recovery. With that said, I just think the emotional toll of that injury is going to make it really hard for Buffalo to come out and give the kind of effort needed to beat the Patriots by more than a touchdown. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they lost this game outright. I know it's not something they probably care a whole lot about, but with that game against Cincinnati being declared a no contest, this game could lose a lot of meaning by kickoff. If Kansas City beats Las Vegas on Saturday, the Chiefs will get the coveted first round bye. There is talk that if Buffalo wins, they may move the AFC Championship Game to a neutral site. That's nice and all, but the week off is what these teams really care about. On the flip side of this, the Patriots need to win this game to ensure a playoff spot. New England can get in with losses by the Dolphins, Steelers and Titans, which is possible but very unlikely if you ask me. So on one side you have a team fighting for their playoff lives and the other with very little at stake. Even if KC were to get upset by the Raiders on Saturday, I still would like NE at this price. I know the Bills players are going to say they are ready to play, I just don't think they will be. Give me the Patriots +7.5! |
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01-08-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 42.5 | 29-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Vikings/Bears OVER 42.5 *Analysis Coming* |
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01-08-23 | Jets v. Dolphins -2 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 66 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -2 I love the Dolphins laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets in Week 18. I get both of these teams have not played great down the stretch. Both come into this game having lost 5 straight. The big difference is, New York's 6-23 loss at Seattle last week ended any hopes they had of making the playoffs. Miami is still alive and very much so. All they need is a win and for Buffalo to defeat the Patriot at home and they are in. I think the only reason this line isn't pushing a touchdown, is the fact that the Dolphins are down to 3rd string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Can this team win in the playoffs with Thompson as their quarterback? Probably not, but he's facing an unmotivated Jets team that hasn't put up more than 17 points in each of their last 4 games, failing to reach double-digits in each of their last 2 games. He doesn't have to be great and let's not forget who he has to throw the ball to. Having a full week to prepare is also going to help him. I just think the line has been adjusted too much for him being the starter and not enough for the spot. Give me the Dolphins -2! |
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01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* NFL Titans/Jags AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Titans +6.5 I love the Titans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jaguars in Saturday's winner take all for the AFC South title. I know it's technically Week 18, but this 100% going to have the feel of a playoff game. It's asking a lot for the Jags to win by a full touchdown in this spot. This is a young team that hasn't been in this kind of pressure, where Tennessee has a bunch of dudes that have played very meaningful games in January the past few seasons. I think that people also get lost in the fact that the Titans come in having lost 6 straight and Jacksonville has won their last 4. We kind of knew given Tennessee's injuries that it was going to come down to this game. We saw the Titans rest all their guys last week against Dallas. Jags decided to play their starters in a meaningless game vs the Texans. Tennessee should be the fresher team and more importantly they are as healthy as they have been in a while, especially on defense. Dobbs isn't great and probably a downgrade from Tannehill, but he's also a massive upgrade over what they were working with in rookie Malik Willis. Not saying Titans will win, but they should at the very least keep this within the number. Give me Tennessee +6.5! |
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01-01-23 | Jets -1 v. Seahawks | 6-23 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets -1 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Seahawks. I've played and lost with New York in each of their last two games. The first one I didn't know Mike White wasn't going to be under center. The second was just a bad play on this team with Wilson at quarterback against a surging Jaguars team. The big reason I'm going right back with New York again this week is the fact that White has been cleared to play and will be back under center. I just think there is zero faith in Wilson with the other guys in the locker room. The entire attitude changes with White under center, as their offense can provide some balance and not just force the defense to do everything. People forget how good this Jets' defense is. They have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 7 games. That defense will be facing a Seattle offense that is trending in the wrong direction. Seahawks scored just 10 points last week against a struggling Chiefs defense and 13 the week before against the 49ers. Star rookie running back Kenneth Walker is questionable and will be playing at less than 100% if he suits up. Seattle really needs him to be a difference maker in this game, because you aren't going to make a living trying to attack this Jets defense thru the air. I just don't see their offense doing enough in this one. Give me the Jets -1! |
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01-01-23 | Browns v. Commanders -2 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 30 m | Show | |
9* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Washington Commanders -2 I'm going to lay the 2-points at home with the Commanders against the Browns. I just don't understand why Cleveland is getting so much respect in this spot. There's zero motivation for the Browns to show up in this game, as they were eliminated from the playoffs with last week's 10-17 loss at home to the Saints. A loss that stings that much more given that Cleveland had a 10-point lead in the game. It was another dreadful showing by Deshaun Watson and the offense. Watson completed just 15 of 31 attempts for 135 yards, as Cleveland's offense was able to manage to just 249 total yards and a mere 3.7 yards/play. Watson is averaging just 175.8 passing yards and has thrown just two touchdown in 4 starts since returning from his suspension. Browns offense as a whole is averaging just 295 ypg in his 4 starts. The offense hasn't gotten better with Watson. It's gotten a lot worse and I don't see it getting any better against a good Washington defense that just recently got back one of the best defensive players in the NFL in Chase Young. While Cleveland has absolutely nothing to play for, Washington desperately needs to win this game. The Commanders currently sit in the 7th and final spot in the NFC, but are just a 1/2 game up on Seattle, Detroit and Green Bay. The big thing that I think is generating the value with Washington and why everyone isn't running to bet on this team, is the uncertainty with the offense given the news that Carson Wentz is going to take back his job. It's a bit of a surprise move, as backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke guided the team to a 5-3-1 record in his 8 starts and Wentz wasn't exactly playing great when he was in control of the offense. I can't say I love the decision, but I also don't hate it. There's not that much difference between the two and Washington has transformed into a more run heavy offense than what they were earlier in the year with Wentz. Tha run-first attack should work just fine against a Browns defense that has given up 162 ypg on the ground over their last 3 games. I'm also not expecting Cleveland's defense to be all that interested in this game with the playoffs out of reach. This line to me should be closer than to a touchdown than a pick'em and at the very least the Commanders should be laying at least a field goal. Give me Washington -2! |
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01-01-23 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 40.5 | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Panthers/Bucs UNDER 40.5 I'll take my chances with the UNDER 40.5 in Sunday's huge NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Bucs. I know Carolina just put up 37 points and 570 total yards in last week's 14-point win at home over the Lions, but that's not a very good Lions defense. It's also a Detroit defense that struggles to stop the run and this Panthers offense is built around their run game. Running the football on the Bucs will be a much more difficult task. Keep in mind the Panthers did run for 173 yards at home in their previous meeting with Tampa Bay and still only managed 21 points. Tampa Bay could only manage a field goal in that first matchup, as the game saw a mere 24 combined points. Things haven't gotten a whole lot better for the Bucs offense as the season has went on. TB has scored fewer than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games with a 23-point showing against the Bengals being their highest output during this stretch. You add in 1st place in the NFC South being up for grabs and I just think we are going to have a playoff like atmosphere in Tampa Bay on Sunday. I think that only helps us, as I see both offenses playing more to not screw it up than taking a bunch of chances. Either way, I don't see this getting into the 40s. Give me the UNDER 40.5! |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts +4 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts +4 I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 4-point home dog against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. Not many are going to want anything to do with betting Indy in this one. Not after last week's historic collapse against the Vikings, where Indy somehow managed to turn a 33-0 halftime lead into a 36-39 OT loss. It was the largest blown lead in NFL history and you can bet this Colts team is sick and tired of hearing about it. What better way to put it to rest, than playing at home on Monday Night Football against an opponent fighting for their playoff lives. I also like the decision head coach Jeff Saturday has made to bench Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles. A move I think they should have done a long time ago. Ryan just has been too inconsistent and has done a horrible job protecting the football. Foles gives that offense new life and it simply can't be any worse. As for the Chargers, they haven't exactly been clicking on the offensive side of the ball. LA scored just 20 points on the road in a loss to the Raiders, put up 23 at home against a very average Dolphins defense and last week snuck by a bad Titans defense with a 17-14 win. This is also a Chargers defense that has allowed 368.6 ypg and 6.2 yards/play on the road this season. I just can't get to them being this big a road favorite. Give me the Colts +4! |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 5 m | Show |
10* NFL Christmas Day ATS MASSACRE: Denver Broncos -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Rams. The fact that Denver, who is just 4-10, is favored on the road against the defending champs, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this season has went for Los Angeles. Injuries have completely derailed any hopes the Rams had of running it back. Just on the offensive side of the ball, they have lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, one of the best WR in the game in Cooper Kupp and their big FA signing at WR in Allen Robinson. They have also had a ridiculous 14 different starters on the offensive line. No injuries at running back, but they might as well, but it's not like they can run the ball. Baker Mayfield is starting at quarterback after he was claimed off waivers a couple weeks ago. Mayfield did lead a crazy comeback win against the Raiders in his first start, but the offense managed just 3 points for 56+ mins of that game. They then proceeded to score just 12 points and rack up a mer 156 total yards in a 12-point loss at Green Bay last week. Simply put, this offense is down bad, even more so than this Broncos team. You combine that with the talent Denver has on the defensive side of the football and I just think it's without question the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. The Broncos offense has looked a little more competentent of late as well, scoring 24 last week in a win at home over Arizona and 28 the week before against the Chiefs. I'm confident they can score enough to win this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
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12-24-22 | Raiders v. Steelers -2 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 69 h 22 m | Show | |
9* NFL Raiders/Steelers ATS NO-BRAINER: Steelers -2 I'm going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 2-point home favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. I just think this is the perfect spot to go against the Raiders. Las Vegas comes into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and everyone is talking about them after their crazy 30-24 win over New England last week, where the Patriots started lateralling the ball on the final play with the game tied and it ended up resulting in a Raiders defensive touchdown. Keep in mind this came after Las Vegas went 81 yards in 1:39 to tie the game with just 32 seconds to play. They also had similar wins over the Broncos and Seahawks during this 4-1 run. They tied it up with Denver with 16 left before winning the game in OT. They scored with 1:54 on the clock to tie it up and force OT in their win over Seattle. So while it may appear this team is playing better, I'm not buying it and I think they are going to have a terrible time keeping this game respectable against Pittsburgh. The Steelers are better than they get credit for. Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 9 games with the 4 losses coming all to playoff teams in the Dolphins, Eagles, Bengals and Raiders. I also think the atmosphere at this game is going to be something special. This game is being played to honor of the Immaculate Reception by Franco Harris. They are going to retire his number at the half, which is something they don't do often in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately Harris won't be there to see it, as he passed away on Wednesday. I see the Steelers laying it all on the line in this one in honor of Harris. I also don't think you can handicap this game without looking at the weather. These two teams will be lucky if the temp reaches double-digits. Wind Chills are expected to be pushing -10 degrees. I get the Raiders have played games in the cold, but chances are not many have played in games that are going to be this cold. I just think it plays to the strength of the Steelers, who are the more physical team. Give me Pittsburgh -2! |
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12-24-22 | Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs | 10-24 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Seattle Seahawks +10 I'll take my chances with the Seahawks as a 10-point road dog against the Chiefs on Saturday. Kansas City has no business laying double-digits against Seattle. Yes, the Seahawks have lost 4 of their last 5 and failed to cover in all 5, but all 4 losses during this stretch have come by 8 or fewer points. The Chiefs have won 7 of their last 8 and own one of the league's best records at 11-3, but are just 4-9 ATS over their last 13 games, with two of those covers being a 10-point win over Jacksonville as a 9.5-point favorite and a 16 point win over the Rams as a 15.5-point favorite. It just seems that whenever KC is playing well, the books don't hesitate to inflate the number on them and it makes sense given how willingly the public is to lay their money on a quarterback like Mahomes. Not only is the line inflated, but this Kansas City defense has not been playing well at all of late. Their run defense has slipped from the start of the year and while their not giving up a ton of yards in the passing game here of late, they just don't seem to make a lot of big plays and aren't great on 3rd downs. I think Geno Smith will be able to do enough here to at the very least keep this a one-score game. Give me the Seahawks +10! |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Giants +4 I got no problem taking the 4-points with the Giants as they go on the road to face the Vikings on Saturday. I just don't think Minnesota should be laying more than a field goal in this match. The Vikings are without a doubt the luckiest team in the NFL this season. They added yet another close win to their resume with last Saturday's crazy 39-36 OT win over the Colts, where they rallied from a 33-0 halftime deficit. You just can't keep winning games like this. I also think this is a horrible matchup for the Vikings. Minnesota has not been able to get their run game going of late. Vikings have eclipsed 100 yards rushing just once in their last 5 games and are averaging just 74.4 ypg during this stretch. I don't know if having to rely heavily on the pass game is a good strategy against a stingy Giants secondary. New York's only giving up 216.9 passing yards/game on the season and have allowed more than 300 yards passing just once all season. If the offense struggles to throw, they could find themselves in another big hole in this one, because there's no signs that this Vikings defense is going to get better. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in total defense, giving up 278.8 ypg. They are allowing an average of 6.2 yards/play and are giving up an average of 31.3 ppg over their last 6 contests. Give me the Giants +4! |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New York Jets -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Jags on Thursday Night Football. This is just too good a price to pass up on New York, especially at home in a game that will be played on just 3 days rest. Home team has a huge edge in this one. Jets should be extra motivated coming into this game having lost 3 straight. All 3 games they could have easily won. I thought Zach Wilson played well last week in place of Mike White. Better than expected. Maybe the benching helped him. Either way, this is another defense he should be able to move the ball against. Jacksonville is giving up 26.4 ppg, 394 ypg and 6.0 yards/play on the road this season. I also think this is a big flat spot for Jacksonville off last week's huge 17-point come from behind win at home against the Cowboys. How much of that was Dallas looking ahead to this week's game against the Eagles? It certainly didn't look like the Cowboys were fully invested. This is also the 3rd road game in less than 4 weeks for Jacksonville, who has shockingly will not play a single stretch all season where they play two consecutive games at home. This team is on a plane to a new city or back home every week. This feels like the spot where it catches up to them. Give me the Jets -1.5! |
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12-18-22 | Titans +3 v. Chargers | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 76 h 16 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans +3 I love the Titans as a 3-point road dog against the Chargers. This is a great buy-low spot on the Titans coming off last week's surprising 22-36 loss at home to the Jags. It's also a great sell-high spot on the Chargers, who are off a 23-17 upset win at home against the Dolphins. I get there was a lot not to like with the performance the Titans gave against the Jags, but it is worth noting they turned it over 4 times in that game. Jaguars had to go less than 50 yards on each of their first 3 scoring drives. It had them playing from behind and that's just not an ideal scenario for this run-heavy team. They shouldn't have any problem keeping their offense humming along in this one, as the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I know LA's defense played great against Tua and the Dolphins, but I believe that was more of them just copying what the 49ers did to slow down Miami. I haven't even got into all the injuries the Chargers are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball. I know it will be Justin Herbert facing off against this bad Titans secondary, but I think the Titans are going to be able to get a pass rush going in this game. Herbert has been running for his life of late. He's been sacked 18 times in the last 4 games, getting sacked at least 4 times in each game. Herbert may very well throw for a bunch of yards, but those negative plays are going to kill drives. I also think it will be tough for LA to execute in the redzone. Simply put, I like the Titans to win this game and to do so rather easily. Give me Tennessee +3! |
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12-18-22 | Patriots v. Raiders +1 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show | |
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Las Vegas Raiders +1 I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a 1-point home dog against the Patriots. Las Vegas is nowhere near as bad as their 5-8 record would lead you to believe. Their scoring differential for the season is a mere -5. Just to give you an idea of where that stacks up with the rest of the league, Miami is 10th in the NFL in scoring difference at +4. The Raiders couldn't be much unluckier in close games. Out of their 8 losses 7 of those have come by 7 or fewer points. That includes their shocking 16-17 loss at the Rams last week. The Raiders had a 16-3 lead in the 4th quarter of that game. It was all downhill from there. They gave up a 17-play 75-yard TD drive and then let the Rams go 98-yards on just 8 plays in 1:35 to score the game-winning TD with just 10 seconds to play. LA had 173 total yards in those last two drives. They had 109 total yards prior to that. It's a bad look to lose a game like that, but I don't think it's going to keep the Raiders from coming out with a big effort in this game. Keep in mind, if they win that game, they would be coming into this game having won 4 straight. Not only do I think the Raiders come into this game a bit undervalued, I'm not sold on this Patriots team. Sure they are coming off a 27-13 win at Arizona, but the Cardinals lost starting quarterback Kyler Murray early in that game. NE only outgunned Arizona 328-323. I just don't like what I've seen at all out of this Patriots offense and I don't think there defense is as good as what it gets made out to be. In this game, they will be facing a Raiders offense that is scoring 28.0 ppg at home. I just don't think NE is going to be able keep pace offensively. Give me the Raiders +1! |
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12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 21 m | Show | |
9* NFL Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets PK I'm going to take the New York Jets as a pick'em at home against the Detroit Lions. I just think this is the time to fade the Lions. Detroit has really changed the narrative on their season and how they are perceived by going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. The most recent being an impressive 34-23 win at home over a Minnesota team that came in with a 10-2 record. No question Dan Campbell has got this team playing well, but let's not get too carried away with this. The Lions other 4 wins during their recent hot streak are against the Jags, Giants, Bears and Packers. They have also benefited from playing each of their last 3 games at home, where they are simply a different offensive team. Detroit is scoring 26.8 ppg for the season, yet are only averaging 18.4 ppg on the road. You also got to factor in the Lions being a team that plays their home games in a dome. This game will be played outdoors with the wind chill expected to around freezing. Not to mention they are facing a pretty stingy Jets defense, that is only giving up 18.7 ppg. New York is holding opponents to an average of just 301 ypg and 5.0 yards/play and that's against teams who on average have put up 349 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. This just also feels like the perfect spot to back the Jets, who come in off back-to-back road losses to the Vikings and Bills where they had to feel like they were the better team. New York outgained the Vikings 486 to 297, averaging 5.9 yards/play to Minnesota's 4.3. They also outgained Buffalo 309 to 232 this past Sunday. I still think this is a better team with Mike White at quarterback instead of Zach Wilson. With White the offense can actually compliment the defense. I definitely think the offense will do their part in this game. Detroit's not a great defensive team. The Lions are giving up 26.7 ppg, 403 yards/game and 6.4 yards/play. I just don't see Detroit scoring enough to pull off the road win in this one. Note that the Lions are just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they have played on the road having won 4 of their last 5 games. We also see that Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are giving up 24 or more points/game and have scored 25 or more in each of their last 4 games are just 4-24 ATS in the NFL going back to 1983. This system is a perfect 1-0 this season, 9-1 over the last 3 seasons and 17-2 over the last 10 years. Give me the Jets Pk! *This play was released before the news came out that Mike White was going to be unavailable to play. With that said, I'm sticking with my play on the Jets. Zach Wilson may be a slight downgrade from White, but this Lions defense is one that even Wilson can have success against. I also have a ton of trust in this Jets defense and their ability to make things extremely difficult on Goff and this Lions offense. |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show |
10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +4 I'll take my chances with the Jaguars as a 4-point home dog against the Cowboys. I just think this Cowboys team is a bit overrated and simply being asked to lay too many points on the road in a massive lookahead spot. Next week's showdown with the Eagles is being hyped like it's the Super Bowl. It's certainly a game Dallas has been looking forward to with all the hype Philly has been getting this season. I get the Cowboys come into this game having won 4 straight, but I don't think they have necessarily played great. Sure they couldn't have looked better in a 40-3 win at Minnesota to start the win streak back in Week 11, but the Vikings are as big a fraud as you are going to find. They far from dominated the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Day the next week. They did beat the Colts 54-19, but they did go into the 4th quarter of that game leading 21-19. Last week they trailed going into the 4th quarter against one of the league's worst teams in the Texans, scoring a late TD to sneak out a 27-23 win. Thing is, when you are winning you don't really focus on the negatives like you do when you are losing. You also have a tendency to repeat those mistakes. I definitely think that will be the case here and I just don't think this Jags team is one you want to overlook right now. Jacksonville deserves a lot of credit for their 14-point road win over the Titans last week. Trevor Lawrence is only getting better and it just feels like this team has figured some things out. I can assure you the Jags are going to be motivated for this game. They are basically in playoff mode right now, as they probably need to win out to have any real shot at making the playoffs. Give me the more motivated team, playing at home and getting points. Give me the Jaguars +4! |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
9* NFL Saturday Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Buffalo Bills -7 I got no problem laying a touchdown at home with Buffalo against the Dolphins. Defenses have figured out how to stop this Miami offense. The 49ers laid the blueprint and a Chargers defense that was missing 6 starters replicated it the next week. They are pressing the speedy wideouts and taking away the middle of the field. In the last two games, Tua has returned to the Tua we saw in the past. I would be shocked here if Buffalo didn't give them the same looks. I also think the Miami offense and entire team for that matter, could struggle in what figures to be some less than ideal playing conditions. The wind chill is expected to be below 20 with close to 25 mph wind gusts. I know that's not ideal playing conditions for the Buffalo offense either, but their might not be a better quarterback for shitty weather than Josh Allen. He's got the arm strength to zip the ball thru the wind and is really an elite runner with the ball. I also don't think this Dolphins defense is very good. It certainly hasn't been on the road this season. Miami is giving up 31.4 ppg, 387 ypg and 6.1 yards/play away from South Beach. The Dolphins defense certainly couldn't stop the Bills in the previous meeting between these two teams this season. Buffalo put up 497 total yards. Their defense also held Miami to just 212 yards. Hard to believe the Dolphins won that game 21-19. I got to think that loss is fresh in the minds of the Bills. This also feels like a huge game for Buffalo in securing an AFC East title. A win here and the Bills would be at least 3 games up on every other team in the division. A loss would put them just 1-game ahead of Miami with the Dolphins holding the tie-breaker. My money is on Buffalo to not just win, but make a statement doing so. Give me the Bills -7! |
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12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NFL - 49ers/Seahawks NFC West PLAY OF THE YEAR: San Francisco 49ers -3 I'll take my chances with the 49ers laying just 3-points on the road against Seattle. If this game were being played about a month ago, I'd say it was about right. A lot has changed for these teams, most notably San Francisco. The 49ers traded for star running back Christian McCaffrey and have seen Brandon Aiyuk blossom alongside Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. It's why I'm not overly concerned about the absence of Samuel in this game, especially against what I think is a pretty bad Seattle defense. San Francisco also has a new quarterback by injury and don't seem to concerned about it. Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in last year's draft, has thrived in relief. He played great coming off the bench in the game Jimmy G got hurt against the Dolphins. He was every bit as good in his first start against the 49ers, as SF won in a blowout 35-7. I'm going to jump on the Purdy bandwagon until he doesn't deliver. As for the Seahawks, their midseason momentum has been put to a stop with 3 losses in their last 4 games. The run game has disappeared (60.0 ypg L4), Geno Smith isn't playing as well as he was and the defense is getting exposed again. I can't see them getting the run game going against the 49ers defense. Smith is going to have to play out of his mind for Seattle to move the football. I just don't see the Seahawks being able to keep pace. I like the 49ers to not just win and cover, but to win here convincingly. Give me San Francisco -3! |
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12-12-22 | Patriots v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Patriots/Cardinals OVER 43.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Patriots and Cardinals on Monday Night Football. The Patriots should be able to get their offense going in this one. Arizona has given up at least 25 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only exception being a game at the Rams. I also think this New England defense isn't nearly as good as what people think. They have really had their way with some of the worst offensive teams in the league. When they have got matched up against a capable offense, they have struggled. Arizona has scored at least 20 in 5 of their last 6. Both teams should easily be in the 20s. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Dolphins/Chargers OVER 51.5 I'm going to take the OVER 51.5 between the Dolphins and Chargers. I see a lot of points being scored in this one. Miami's offense was held in check by a really good 49ers defense last week. I wasn't surprised at all by it. I played the 49ers because I loved how their defense matched up against the Dolphins pass happy offense. This is a much better matchup for Miami's offense. This is not a good Chargers defense and they are down some key guys on that side of the ball. Los Angeles is giving up 25.8 ppg 372 ypg and 6.3 yards/play on the season. They are down their best pass rusher and best all-around defensive player in Joey Bosa. They also have lost a top corner in J.C. Jackson and it's up in the air if star safety Derwin James will play. Miami had scored 30 or more points in 4 straight games prior to only producing 17 against the 49ers. I like them to eclipse that mark in this one, especially with the perfect conditions that come with playing at SoFi Stadium. That means we probably need just 24 from the Chargers to cash this OVER. I don't think they will have any trouble reaching that. I don't think this Miami defense is anywhere close to as good as what people think and it's not like they are playing great as it is. They certainly haven't performed well on the road. The Dolphins are giving up a staggering 32.8 ppg, 380 ypg and 6.2 yards/play on the road this season. The OVER is 5-1 in their 6 road games, with an average combined score of 59.0 points. OVER is also 8-1 in the Dolphins last 9 road games vs quality offensive teams that are averaging 350 or more yards/game and 11-3 in the Chargers last 14 when playing against a team with a winning record. Give me the OVER 51.5! |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: San Francisco 49ers -3 I'll take my chances with the 49ers as a 3-point home favorite against the Bucs. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with San Francisco, largely due to the market not really knowing what to make of the 49ers being down to 3rd string QB Brock Purdy. I was impressed with what I saw out of Purdy in relief of Garoppolo in last week's 33-17 win over the Dolphins. He went 25 of 37 for 210 yards and 2 TDs. Much like Garoppolo, he's not going to be asked to shoulder the load. They are going to get the ball out of his hands quick and let their playmakers do the rest. It also helps having one of the league's best defenses. I'm not buying the Bucs two late TD drives against the Saints as some sign that this offense is going to break out. I don't think there's any fixing Tampa Bay's offense. I really think the 49ers defense is going to torment Brady and the Bucs in this one. Give me the 49ers -3! |
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12-11-22 | Jets +10 v. Bills | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets +10 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 10-point road dog against the Bills. These two teams already played once in New York, with the Jets winning that game 20-17 as a 10.5-point home dog. They did so with Zach Wilson as their starting QB. I'm not saying their new starter, Mike White, is this elite guy, but he's a massive upgrade over Wilson. Not just on the field, but I think there's a different mindset with the entire team now that Wilson isn't the guy under center. White led the Jets to a 31-10 win over the Bears in his first start and then really should have gotten them a big road win at the Vikings last week. New York ended up losing that game 22-27, despite outgaining the Vikings 486-287. We saw the Jets' defense really give Josh Allen and that Bills offense some troubles in the first meeting and I expect more of the same this time around. Buffalo to me is just being way overvalued coming off a big win and cover in a prime time game against the Patriots. Give me the Jets +10! |
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12-11-22 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-22 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
10* AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans -3.5 I can't help myself but to lay it with the Titans at home against the Jaguars. I just don't understand all the Jacksonville love from the oddsmakers this season. Jacksonville is just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games, yet are being treated here like they are the same playing field as the Titans. Not to mention Tennessee just seems to be a team that year in and year out get no respect. Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and yet are 8-4 ATS this year. Tennessee is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and those 3 losses are to the Chiefs by 3, the Bengals by 4 and then last week's ugly 25-point loss at the Eagles. I get it the loss was bad, but that was a tough matchup for the Titans. It's not going to be as tough on their offense against the Jags. This is also a Jaguars offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games. One exception was they scored 27 on an awful Raiders defense. They also had 28 in that crazy win over the Ravens at home a couple weeks back. Jacksonville had just 10-points in that game with under 6 minutes to play. I also look at the head-to-head in this series, which has been dominated by the Titans. Tennessee has won the last 5 meetings with each of the last 3 wins combing by at least 18 points. Give me the Titans -3.5! |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams OVER 43.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Raiders/Rams OVER 43.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Raiders and Rams on Thursday Night Football. If the Raiders don't push for 30 points in this game, I would be shocked. This Las Vegas offense has quietly been playing well over the last month. In their last 4 games, they have scored on 45% of their possessions, which is the 3rd best mark in the league over that span. Carr is really playing well right now. In their 3-game win streak leading up to this game, he's thrown for 284 ypg, averaging just over 8.0 yards/attempt. He'll be facing a Rams defense that has given up at least 26 points in each of their last 4 games. One that is without what many consider to be the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald. They also don't have their second best defensive lineman in A'Shawn Robinson. I don't see how they slow down Josh Jacobs in this game. If they can't, that should only open up things more for Carr thru the air. It's not as promising when you look at the Rams offense, which is why I think we are getting such great value with this total. As hard as it is to believe, Baker Mayfield may actually start this game after being with the team for just a couple of days. I know Mayfield has been awful, but it's not like this is some massive drop off in talent from John Wolford or Bryce Perkins. I'll put some faith in McVay figuring out something that gives Mayfield a chance in this game. This is not a great Raiders defense and it's one that has struggled to take down the opposing quarterback. Las Vegas' 21 sacks is the 28th worst mark in the league. That's a big plus for Mayfield's chances. All we need here is a 27-17 type of game. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New Orleans Saints +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Saints as a 3.5-point road dog against the Buccaneers. I just feel like 3.5 is too many points to pass up in a matchup that doesn't figure to see a ton of offense. The biggest thing for me is I just don't trust this Tampa Bay offense to get this thing turned around. The offensive line has been a major problem for the Bucs this season and it suffered a massive blow in last week's loss to the Browns, losing starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs 3-4 weeks to an ankle injury. That combined with Tampa Bay's inability to run the football, really puts them behind the 8-ball against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the Top 10 in the NFL against the pass and is T-10th in sacks with 33. You also got to look at how much Brady and this Bucs offense has struggled against this Saints defense even in previous years when they were putting up big numbers on the offensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay won the previous meeting 20-10, but keep in mind that game was 3-3 midway thru the 4th quarter before Jameis Winston threw an interception on 3 consecutive drives. New Orleans is 20-8 ATS last 28 on the road when revenging a same season loss and 17-5 ATS last 22 when revenging a road loss where they score 14 or fewer points. Give me the Saints +3.5! |
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 I'll take my chances with San Francisco laying 4.5 at home against Miami. I just got a feeling this Dolphins team isn’t as good as what people think. Miami has won 5 straight since Tua’s return from a concussion and are 8-0 this season when he starts and finishes a game. It’s impressive, but at the same time, this team could very easily be 4-4 in Tua’s 8 full starts this year. They had a ridiculous 42-38 win at Baltimore, where they trailed 14-35 going into the 4th quarter. They were outgained 497 to 212 in a 21-19 win at home over the Bills, trailed by doubled-digits in the 2nd half at Detroit and barely snuck out a 3-point win against the Bears. The other 4 wins were against the Patriots, Steelers, Browns and Texans. I also think this team has feasted on some bad defenses and outside of the 4th quarter against the Ravens have struggled against the better defensive teams. I think a 49ers defense that can get pressure without blitzing can really cause some problems for Tua and this offense, especially when you factor in how good this San Francisco defense is against the run. I get the 49ers offense isn’t anything special and certainly didn’t play up to their potential in last week’s 13-0 win at home against the Saints, but let’s not forget they did have to play that game on just 6 days of rest after playing the previous week in Mexico City. This is not a very good Dolphins defense. Give me the 49ers -4.5! |
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12-04-22 | Jaguars v. Lions OVER 51.5 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 72 h 39 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Jags/Lions OVER 51.5 I'll take the OVER 51.5 in Sunday's matchup that has the Jaguars visiting the Lions. Detroit has been one of my favorite teams to play on when it comes to the OVER, especially when they are playing at home and aren't facing a division opponent. In this scenario, where the Lions are playing at home against a non-division opponent, the lowest combined score we have seen in a single game is 53 and the average combined score in the 5 games that meet this criteria is 68.0 ppg. In those 5 games the Lions are averaging 33.6 ppg and giving up 34.4 ppg. I get the Jags aren't as good an offensive team as some of their home opponents, but we saw the Lions and Commanders combined for 63 points in Detroit earlier this season. I think Trevor Lawrence keeps improving and he's quietly got a 8-2 TD-INT ratio over his last 6 games. He's also not going to have to shoulder the load, as the Lions are an awful against the run, giving up 155 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, I don't think the Jags defense is going to have much luck containing this Lions offense. Detroit's averaging 6.3 yards/play at home this season and are facing a Jacksonville defense that is giving up 24.8 ppg, 392 ypg and 6.0 yards/play on the road this year. I think both teams at a minimum put up 24 points and at least one of these teams hits the 30-point mark. Give me the OVER 51.5! |
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12-04-22 | Steelers +1 v. Falcons | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Pittsburgh Steelers +1 I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a slim 1-point road dog against the Falcons. I don't understand the lack of respect for Pittsburgh and why more people aren't betting them against what I think is a very overrated Falcons team. The Steelers are coming in off an impressive 24-17 road win over the Colts and have been playing much better over the last month than they were early on. I get they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games, but the 3 losses have come against the Dolphins, Eagles and Bengals with both games against Miami and Philly on the road. This couldn't be a better matchup for them defensively, as they are very physical upfront and aren't going to just let teams run it down their throat. Running the football is really all this Atlanta offense can do. The Falcons are averaging a mere 155 passing yards/game for the season. Not only do they not put up numbers, but they don't have the weapons to even threaten this Steelers defense thru the air. I also think this Falcons team is overvalued from their ridiculous ATS run to start the year. Atlanta started out the season a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games. They are also just 2-4 SU over their last 6 and the two wins are a 3-point win at home over the Panthers and a 3-point win at home against the Bears. Give me the Steelers +1! |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10* Thurs. Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Bills/Patriots OVER 43.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Thursday's AFC East showdown between the Bills and Patriots. I just feel the total here should be closer to 48. I know this is a division matchup, but I see both offenses putting up points. It felt like Allen figured out this New England defense last year. He had 33 points and 428 total yards in the first meeting and then came back in the next matchup and put up 47 points and 482 total yards. Yes, Allen has not played at the MVP level we expect from him in his last few games. I do think he's dealing with some kind of injury to that elbow. However, this offense is far from broken. Bills are averaging 29.7 ppg, 414.7 ypg and 6.2 yards/play over their last 3 games. I'm also not convinced this Patriots defense is as good as what people think. Prior to giving up 33 points and 358 yards to the Vikings, the Patriots previous 7 games came against the following quarterbacks. Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff (without Amon St. Brown). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 27 on them with over 400 yards of offense and Lamar Jackson guided Baltimore to 37 points. This team has simply not played great defensively against top tier quarterbacks. As for the Pats offense, I definitely feel like it's got better as the season has went along. Mac Jones seems a lot more comfortable than he did a few weeks ago. I also think this Bills defense is hurting and is going to really miss Von Miller. Miller was a game wrecker for this defense. He led the team with 8.5 sacks. The next best is Greg Rosseau with 5 (only two other guys have 2 or more). Bad quarterbacks can look good when there's no pressure. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts -2 I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 2-point home favorite against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. I've really liked what I've seen out of Indianapolis in the two games since Jeff Saturday took over as interim head coach. This has looked more like the team that we expected to see coming into the year, yet I still think they are being priced like the team that has a 4-6-1 record. In the two game under Saturday, the Colts have went on the road and beat the Raiders 25-20 as a 4.5-point dog and lost 16-17 at home to the Eagles as a 7-point dog. I backed Indy in both of those games. The defense has been outstanding in both of those games. They held the Raiders to 77 rushing yards and just 309 total yards. They held the Eagles to just 141 rushing yards and 314 total yards. I think they will be able to keep Pittsburgh from running the football and I just don't have a lot of faith in Kenny Pickett to make the plays needed on the road for Pittsburgh to win this game. I'm not saying it will be easy for Indy's offense. I do have my concerns with that o-line trying to pass protect against T.J. Watt. However, we have seen the Colts get back to running the ball with Taylor since Saturday took over and I think he will be able to do enough to take some of the pressure off of Ryan in this one. Give me the Colts -2! |
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11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | 40-34 | Win | 100 | 136 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Raiders/Seahawks OVER 47.5 I'll take the OVER 47.5 between the Raiders and Seahawks. I really feel like this total should be in the 50s. Early on this season Seattle was making headlines for having one of the worst defenses in the league and as a result they found themselves in a lot of shootouts. There was a stretch from Week 2 to Week 5, where they gave up 27 or more points in 4 straight games. Then all the sudden this defense started to play better. Since giving up 39 to the Saints in Week 5, they have not allowed more than 23 in 5 straight games. Now all the sudden everyone wants to praise their defense. I'm just not buying it. I think the improved numbers have more to do with who they have played on the schedule than them transforming into this great defense. Two weeks ago against the Bucs in Germany, they held Tampa Bay to just 21 points, but were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Bucs piled on 419 yards. This is still a defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their attempts. I just think Derek Carr and the Raiders passing attack are going to be able to make some plays in this game. I know Las Vegas had just 22 points in last week's win over the Broncos, but they had over 400 yards of total offense. Carr threw for 307 yards and that's against a Denver defense that is statistically one of the best in the league against the pass. They are tied with the Eagles for the best mark in the NFL, allowing just 5.8 yards/pass attempt. Seattle ranks in the bottom 10 in that department, giving up 7.4 yards/attempt. I think the Raiders offense doing their share is the only real concern here, because Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense should have a field day against a bad Las Vegas defense. Raiders have played one of the easiest schedules as far as playing good offensive teams. Las Vegas' opponents on average are scoring just 19.9 ppg, yet they come in allowing 24.2 ppg. They will be facing a Seahawks offense that is 5th in the NFL in scoring at 25.7 ppg and has averaged 29.1 ppg over their last 8 games. This is also a Seattle offense that is scoring 31.7 ppg in games this season when they rush for at least 100 yards. A mark you have to think they will hit in this game, as the Raiders have a very week front 7 and have allowed their opponents to rush for at least 100 yards in 7 of the 10 games they have played this season. Two of those they held under 100 yards were against the Broncos and the other was the Chargers who are 29th in the NFL in rushing at just 87.9 ypg. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -4 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NFL Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets -4 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 4-point home favorite against the Bears. This to me is a no-brainer. The ONLY reason that Chicago has been competitive of late has been the play of quarterback Justin Fields. He's been absolutely tormenting defenses with his legs. I think there's a good chance he doesn't even play in this game. Fields is listed as questionable with a pretty bad injury to his non-throwing shoulder. It really doesn't make sense for Chicago to risk playing him, as they are completely out of it at 3-8. Also, even if he were to play, I don't think he would be very effective. Fields' ability to pick up yards with his legs has been what's transformed this Chicago offense into one of the highest scoring in the league over the last month. Bears are averaging well over 200 rushing yards/game over their last 6 games. I just don't see him being as willing to run the ball if he's got a banged up shoulder. Not to mention, if he does, there's a good chance he reinjures it and has to leave the game. Problem for Chicago is they needs Fields and that offense to be great for them to be competitive, because their defense has been terrible since trading away Quinn and Smith. Lastly, this is a great buy-low spot on the Jets, whose last three games have come against the Patriots, Bills and Patriots. New York is also likely a little undervalued at home. Jets have played what has to be the toughest home schedule so far this season, as their 5 homes to this point have been against the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Patriots and Bills. Give me the Jets -4! |
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11-27-22 | Bengals -1 v. Titans | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 133 h 59 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR: Cincinnati Bengals -1 I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Titans. You would expect Tennessee to be favored in this one, given the Titans are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over their last 8 games. The betting public has caught on to this team and now everyone is looking to play Tennessee in this matchup. It's a big reason why I'm loading up on the Bengals. The books know what they are doing with this line and this is a Cincinnati team that has been really good since that 0-2 start. Bengals are 6-2 in their last 8 games, covering the spread in 7 of those. This is also a Bengals team that is dangerously close to having the best record in the AFC, as 3 of their 4 losses have come by a field goal or less. Their only real bad loss all season was that 13-32 loss at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that was their first game without Jamar Chase and the offense just looked lost. They put up 42 the following week against the Panther sand then 37 last week against a really good Pittsburgh defense that recently got T.J. Watt. It's unfortunate Joe Mixon won't be able to play in this game for Cincinnati, but all signs point to the Bengals getting back Chase. Either way, I like Burrow to carve up this soft Titans secondary. I also think it's a good matchup for the Cincinnati defense, as they aren't terrible against the run and without the run game working in full force, this Tennessee offense doesn't have a lot to offer. Give me the Bengals -1! |
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11-24-22 | Patriots +3 v. Vikings | Top | 26-33 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 36 m | Show |
10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots +3 I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 3-point road dog against the Vikings. I played against Minnesota last week in their 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and I'm going to play against them against New England for a lot of the same reasons. I just don't think the Vikings are that great of a football team. Prior to their loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings had won 7 straight games and probably should have lost at least 3 of those, given all 7 of those were decided by one score and several of which they had to rally late for the win. They haven't really been great on either side of the ball. They come in averaging 22.9 ppg and 338 ypg, which is basically what their opponents give up on average (22.3 ppg and 338 ypg). Defensively they are giving up 389 ypg and 6.2 yards/play vs teams that on average only put up 358 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. I really have concerns with their offense against a stingy Pats defense. New England doesn't give up much of anything on the ground. The only team to rush for more than 78 yards against them in their last 5 games is the Bears and almost all of that was Justin Fields. As for the passing game, you know Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Justin Jefferson out of the picture. Lastly, you simply can't ignore how bad Kirk Cousins has been in prime time games. I just don't think the Vikings can win without him being great, because I think this New England offense will have no problem moving the ball against what I think is a pretty bad Minnesota defense. Give me the Patriots +3! |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Cowboys -1 I'll take my chances with the Cowboys as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Vikings. This line really says it all. Minnesota is sitting at 8-1, riding a 7-game win streak and fresh off a win over the Bills and yet are a home dog to a Cowboys team that is coming off an ugly loss to the Packers. This line is begging you to take Minnesota, which is why we are doing exactly the opposite and laying it big on Dallas. I get all wins count the same in the NFL, but there's not a luckier team thru the first 10 weeks of the season than the Vikings. Minnesota could just as easily be coming into this game with a losing record, as there are at least a handful of games that could of went the other way. Just in their last two games they have trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. It's not just the fluke wins and the line that has me betting against the Vikings. I also think this is a brutal spot for Minnesota coming off of that massive and unthinkable OT win over the Bills. It's just not easy bouncing back from an emotional victory like that and on the other side you have a Cowboys team that has to be chomping at the bit after how they blew that game last week against Green Bay. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Dallas ended up winning this game going away. Give me the Cowboys -1! |
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11-20-22 | Raiders v. Broncos -2.5 | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 16 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Raiders. I can't believe I'm playing Denver, as there's not much to like about with how this team has performed in 2022. Russell Wilson just hasn't lived up to the hype at all. That's just it. This is more of a play against the Raiders than it is a play on the Broncos. Las Vegas is an absolute mess. After last week's 20-25 loss at home to the Colts, who had an ESPN analyst as their interim head coach, the Raiders fell to 2-7 and whatever hope they had of turning this season around and getting back in the playoff picture was completely lost. Just look at how Derek Carr was crying after the game. He knows this season is over and to make matters worse he basically called out some of his teammates for not giving it their all. I just don't see how the Raiders aren't a bigger dog on the road in this game. As bad as Wilson and the Broncos have been, let's not forget that the one game Russ actually looked like his old self was an earlier matchup against the Raiders. I also think we saw some promising signs in last week's loss to the Titans. Tennessee is playing as well as any team in the league right now and the Broncos led the majority of that game and outgained the Titans 313-307. They completely shutdown Henry, limiting him to just 53 yards on 19 carries and if you can keep the Raiders from getting their run game going they don't offer much of a threat, especially with Waller and Renfrow sidelined. This is also a Denver defense that has held each of their last 5 opponents under 20 points. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
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11-20-22 | Jets v. Patriots -3 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3 I'll take my chances with the Patriots as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets. I just don't understand the lack of respect for New England in this one. These two teams played back in Week 8 in New York with the Patriots winning that game 22-17. They won that game without the offense being able to get anything going, which I think is why some people are liking the Jets to get their revenge. Not me, especially not with the horrible passing conditions. It's going to be hard for either team to move the ball thru the air, as winds are expected to be a minimum of 25 mpg with gust pushing 40 mph. This game is going to come down to who can have more success running the ball. If you remember back to that Week 8 matchup, almost all of New York's offense came thru the air. The Jets had just 51 rushing yards. New England on the other hand had 127. I just think it really gives a strong edge to the Patriots, especially with the game this time being played in New England. I also feel that while both teams have had two weeks to prepare after a bye week, that's a bigger edge to the Pats, who have the much better coaching staff. Give me New England -3! |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Falcons/Bears OVER 48.5 I'll take the OVER 48.5 between the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons. I've been on the OVER in each of the Bears last two games. I had the OVER 45.5 in their 32-35 loss to the Dolphins in Week 9 and the OVER 48.5 in last week's 30-31 loss to the Lions. The 67 points they combined for with Miami was the highest game score of any game in Week 9 and the 61 they combined for with Detroit was topped only by the Vikings/Bills OT game that saw 63 combined points. Keep in mind they also had the highest scoring output in Week 8 when the combined for 78 with the Cowboys. It's really a combination of two things. One the Chicago offense has completely done a 180 from the start of the year, as they figured out how to get Justin Fields more involved in the running game. In the last 5 games, Fields has rushed for 555 yards on 62 attempts. In the Bears first 5 games he rushed for just 194 yards. Chicago is averaging 31.0 ppg in their last 4. I just don't see any reason to not expect more of the same, especially against a Falcons defense that comes in giving up 25.0 ppg and 6.2 yards/play. Not to mention Atlanta just gave up 232 rushing yards last week to the Panthers. The other big thing is that while Chicago's offense has quickly become one of the more potent attacks in the NFL, the defense has went from bad to worse, especially after trading away star lineback Roquan Smith, who despite being traded a couple weeks ago still leads this team in tackles by 13 over the next best player. So even though the Falcons offense hasn't looked very good in their last two games, you have to like them to put up a big number in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
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11-20-22 | Eagles v. Colts +7 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 70 h 58 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +7 I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 7-point home dog against the Eagles on Sunday. While everyone was bashing Indy's decision to go out and hire ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday to be their interim head coach, I thought it presented a great spot to back the Colts against the Raiders and Indy delivered in a 25-20 win as a 5-point dog. I could be stepping in it here with Indy this week against an Eagles team that will be looking to bounce back from their 21-32 upset loss at home to the Commanders on Monday Night Football, which put to rest all the talk about this team going undefeated. So be it. I just think there's too much value to pass up at this price. It's not as easy as people think for a team to rebound after that first loss to snap a long winning streak. Philly is also in a tough spot here having to play on a short week. As for Saturday, say what you want about his lack of experience and I'm sure there will be those that point to the fact that it was the Raiders who they beat. I get it, but to me it was more than that. This looked more like the Colts team we expected to see from the start of the year. Was it just a coincidence that in Saturday's first game as coach, Jonathan Taylor had a monster game with 147 yards on 22 attempts. His first 100+ yard performance since Week 1 against the Texans. Was it also a coincidence that Matt Ryan had one of his cleanest games of the year, getting hit just once the entire game while completing 21 of 28 attempts for 222 yards. Maybe so, but Saturday was a damn good offensive linemen in his day and he learned how to read defenses from one of the best to ever do it at quarterback in Peyton Manning. If by chance he did figure something out with that offensive line, which was hands down the biggest thing that was holding this team back, the Colts aren't just going to be a great position to cover this spread, I could see them winning this game outright. Give me Indy +7! |
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11-17-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
10* NFL Titans/Packers TNF VEGAS INSIDER: Tennessee Titans +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 3.5-point road dog against the Packers on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 11. I'm just not ready to buy Green Bay as a team that has figured it out. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Packers 31-28 OT win over the Cowboys in Week 10. Great win, but let's not forget the Packers trailed 14-28 in the 4th quarter of that game. They also had just 186 total yards with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Yes, rookie wide out Christian Watson had a bit of a breakout game with 3 TD catches, but he only caught 4 passes the entire game. This is still a Packers offense that needs to be able to run the football to have success and the Titans aren't exactly the defense you want to try and run against. Tennessee is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 85.1 yards/game and 3.9 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, we all know the Titans offense goes with Derrick Henry and this is not a great Packers run D. Green Bay is 26th in the NFL giving up 140.6 rush yards/game. This is also a Tennessee team that seems to play their best in big games like this. We saw it a couple weeks ago in there near upset of the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Titans are also an incredible 20-7 ATS as a dog of 3 or more since he became their head coach. Give me Tennessee +3.5! |
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11-13-22 | Colts +5 v. Raiders | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +5 I'm going to take my chances with the Colts as a 5-point road dog against the Raiders. I could be dead wrong here, but I just can't help myself but to take the points with Indy in this game. There's so much negativity going on with the Colts right now, as everyone thinks they are nuts for hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. I just don't think it's as big a deal as what it's being made out to be. How much worse can it really get with Indy? Unless there's some behind the scenes initiative to tank for a better draft pick, I actually think we are going to get one of the best efforts of the season from Indy. I think a coaching change adds a sense of urgency across the board and this Colts defense, which has been playing really well, should bring their "A" game in this one. As for the offense. I don't know if Saturday can really do a lot given how bad the offensive line is, but if there's a guy that can maybe work some magic with an offensive line, it might be him. He was an outstanding center, who learned how to decipher defenses from one of the best to ever do it in Peyton Manning. Lastly, this Raiders team is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They just put Waller and Renfroe on IR and had one of their better linebackers retire midseason. If anyone isn't deserving of being a head coach it's Josh McDaniels. I just don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Raiders team and wouldn't be shocked at all if Indy won this game rather convincingly. Give me the Colts +5! |
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11-13-22 | Saints v. Steelers +1.5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 I'll take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 1.5-point home dog against the New Orleans Saints. I'm a little bit surprised the Steelers are a home dog in this one. I get Pittsburgh is just 1-6 in their last 7 games, but it's not like New Orleans has been that much better. The Saints are 2-6 in their last 8 and 3-6 ATS for the season. New Orleans has also not won a road game since their 27-26 win at Atlanta in Week 1, which they had no business winning, as they were down by as many as 16 in the 4th quarter. They will be at a huge rest disadvantage in this game, as they will be on a short week after playing the Ravens on MNF in Week 9, while Pittsburgh hasn't played in two weeks after their bye in Week 9. Pittsburgh is also expected to getting back their best player in defensive end T.J. Watt. The record is night and day with Watt on the field for the Steelers. The one game he played this year, they went on the road and beat the Bengals as a 7-point dog. They are also expected to get back safety Damontae Kazee, who they signed in free agency and was a standout in training camp. Kazee hasn't played a game since injuring his forearm in the final preseason game. Corner Levi Wallace should also be back from a shoulder injury and newly acquired corner William Jackson III could make his debut with the team. I think with just Watt coming back this Steelers defense quickly becomes one of the Top 5 defensive teams in the league. I also look at how much trouble the Saints offensive line had blocking an aging Justin Houston last week. No way are they going to be able to keep Watt out of their backfield. As for the Steelers offense, I know it's not been anything to write home about this year. However, it's also not been a very favorable slate in terms of the caliber of defenses played. Pittsburgh has faced one team, the Dolphins, who rank outside the Top 15 in total defense. Just to give you a comparison, the Saints have played 7 of their 9 games against teams who rank 20th or worse in total defense, 6 of which rank in the bottom 10. New Orleans has allowed 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only exception being the Raiders, who they shutout a couple weeks ago. The wrong team is favored in this game. Give me the Steelers +1.5! |
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11-13-22 | Broncos v. Titans -1.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Tennessee Titans -1.5 I will take my chances with the Titans as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. I think there's a perception here that Tennessee is going to suffer a letdown coming off that emotional loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. Plus, there's the perception that Denver has a big edge here coming off of their bye week. I'm just not buying it. I just don't see how this Denver offense is going to be able to get anything going against this Tennessee defense. It's crazy how little respect this Titans team has gotten, despite what they have accomplished over the last few seasons under Vrable. I don't think Denver is going to be able to stop Henry, which is the one thing you have to be able to do if you are going to slow down Tennessee's offense. I also have some concerns with the mindset of this Broncos defense after the team traded away star pass rusher Chubb. Give me the Titans -1.5! |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears OVER 48.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 59 m | Show |
10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Lions/Bears OVER 48.5 I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFC North showdown between the Lions and Bears. Chicago might be my favorite OVER team in the league right now. Justin Fields and the Bears offense has completely done a 180 from the start of the year. In their last 3 games Chicago is averaging 31.3 ppg and 376.3 ypg. This is an ideal matchup for the Bears offense, which is built around their running game, most notabely the running ability of Fields. Lions defense is not very good. Don't be fooled by them playing well last week against a bad Packers offense. Detroit is giving up 4.9 rush yards/play and 147 rushing yards/game on the season. While the Bears offense has turned into a bit of a juggernaut, the defense has become one of the worst. The trades of Quinn and Smith really hit hard and this defense has shown no ability to get off the field of late. Their defense is giving up 32.7 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 6.9 yards/play in their last 3 games. Not even some less than ideal conditions in Chicago are going to keep these two teams from putting up 50+ points. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 23 m | Show | |
8* NFL Seahawks/Bucs Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +3 I'll take my chances with the Seahawks as a 3-point underdog against the Bucs in Sunday's early game in Munich. I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I backed the Bucs and got the win last week against the Rams, but that was an extremely fortunate win and cover for Tampa Bay. It just isn't getting any better for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. Their inability to run the football and poor offensive line play continues to be a major problem. Now they face a Seattle defense that has went from being one of the worst defenses in the league to a very competent team on that side of the ball. In their last 4 games the Seahawks have held the Cardinals to 9, Chargers to 23, Giants to 13 and the Cardinals to 13. On the flip side, Geno Smith and the Seattle offense continue to impress. Seahawks have scored 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. I know the numbers look good for Tampa Bay's defense, but this is not as good a unit as people think. They have really benefited lately by playing a bunch of bad offenses. Give me the Seahawks +3! |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
9* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers +2.5 I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a 2.5-point home dog against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. I'm not so sure the right team is favored in this game. It just feels like this line is a big overreaction to what we saw last week out of this Carolina team. The Panthers haven't been any good, but last week's 21-42 loss to the Bengals was arguably their worst showing of the season. The final score doesn't even do justice to how bad Carolina played, as Cincinnati had 35-0 lead at the half. It was so bad that it's like everyone is ignoring how the game played out between these two teams in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. A game Carolina ended up losing 34-37 in OT, yet would have won in regulation had D.J. Moore not took off his helmet and forced the PAT to be pushed back 15 yards (missed). They also had a 32-yard missed field goal in OT that would have won the game. NFL teams have a way of responding in a big way after an embarrassing loss like that and I think it definitely helps this game being in prime time, as that will also get them excited to play when there's really not much to play for. One last thing, I think this could be a tough spot for Atlanta. Not just playing on the road on just 3 days of rest, but coming off that gut-wrenching loss to the Chargers, where they forced a fumble late that looked to set them up for a game-winning field goal, only to have the player re-fumble the ball back to the Chargers, which set LA up for the game-winning field goal. Give me the Panthers +2.5! |
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11-07-22 | Ravens -122 v. Saints | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Baltimore Ravens -122 I'll take my chances with the Ravens on the money line on Monday Night Football, as they visit the Saints. I just feel like New Orleans is a bit overrated off last week's 24-0 win over the Raiders. That's a bad Las Vegas team and the Raiders had the flu bug going around their lockerroom in the days prior to that game. Saints had lost 5 of their previous 6 before that win over LV. Both teams have been hit hard with injuries, but I just feel the Saints have got the worse of that deal, as they are down really big contributors on both sides of the football. This is also Lamar Jackson vs Andy Dalton in prime time. Give me the Ravens -122 (money line)! |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show |
10* NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Buccaneers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Rams. I just feel like this is the ultimate buy-low spot on Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tampa Bay has went from a team the public would bet blindly no matter what the spread was, to a team they want absolutely nothing to do with. Hard to blame them, given the Bucs are a dismal 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Maybe I'm stepping in it with Brady and the Bucs on Sunday, but to me there's so much value here with Tampa Bay. While some teams might be already looking to next year after a 3-5, everything is still right in front of the Bucs, as they have lucked out with how bad the other 3 teams in the NFC South are. The Falcons currently lead this division with a 4-4 record and I don't see Atlanta being the team on top when it's all said and done. I'm not sure Brady and the Bucs offense are going to ever end up developing into the juggernaut we saw his first two years with Tampa Bay, but this is not a game or spread where I think the offense has to be great for them to cover. The Rams have been just as disappointing as the Bucs in terms of how their offense has performed vs expectations. LA comes into this game averaging just 16.9 ppg and 297 yards/game which is noticeably worse than the 18.3 ppg and 333 ypg the Bucs are averaging. The only real offensive weapon the Rams have had is wide out Cooper Kupp, but he injured his ankle on the final play in last week's loss to the 49ers. It does appear that Kupp is going to try to give it a go, but I can't imagine he's going to be anywhere close to 100% and if he's not dominating, I just don't know where the offense comes from. It's now or never for the Bucs and I believe they get the job done. Give me Tampa Bay -2.5! |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears OVER 45.5 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5 I'm going to take the OVER 45.5 in Sunday's Week 9 NFL matchup that has the Dolphins visiting the Bears. I'll be the first to admit that I didn't think I would be expecting a shootout in a game involving Chicago, but that just goes to show you how quickly things can change in the NFL. Simply put, this is not the same Bears offense that we saw struggling to just get first downs early in the season. It all stems from the improved play Chicago is getting out of second-year quarterback Justin Fields. To give you a better idea of what I'm talking about with Fields maturation this season, let's compare his last 4 games of the season vs his first 4 games. In his first 4 games Fields completed just 34 of 67 pass attempts, which is 50.1%. He had a 2-4 TD-INT ratio and was averaging just 36.8 rushing yards/game. In his last 4 games, Fields has completed 59 of 92 pass attempts, 64.1%, with a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and is averaging 69.3 rushing yards/game. In Chicago's last two games they have put up 33 points and 390 total yards at New England and 29 points and 371 yards against the Cowboys. Even the game before the Pats where they had that ugly 7-12 loss to the Commanders they put up 392 total yards of offense. In their last 3 games the Bears have eclipsed 200 rushing yards in each game and are averaging 240 yards/game during this stretch. I know Miami's run D is solid, but they did struggle to contain the legs of a similar mobile QB in Lamar Jackson, who rushed for 119 yards in a 42-38 win by Miami. The other thing I love here is that while the Bears offense is trending up, their defense is trending in the opposite direction. A couple weeks ago they traded away one of their better pass rushers in Robert Quinn, then a few days ago they traded away the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Roquan Smith. Even with Smith on the field last Sunday, we saw Dallas really do whatever they wanted against this Bears defense. I could see Chicago having an even tougher time containing this high-powered Miami offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL behind only the Bills and Chiefs in yards/play. I just have a hard time seeing these two teams not combining for at least 50 points in this game, as I could easily see Miami scoring 30 and the Bears getting to at least 20. Give me the OVER 45.5! |
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11-06-22 | Panthers +7.5 v. Bengals | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 48 m | Show | |
9* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MITAKE: Carolina Panthers +7.5 I'll take my chances with the Panthers catching 7.5-points on the road against the Bengals. Carolina has looked like a different team since trading away McCaffrey and shockingly they have really improved on the ground since McCaffrey left. In the two games without him they have rushed for 173 yards against Tampa Bay and 169 yards against the Falcons. They should be able to keep that going against a Bengals defense that is giving up 126 rush yards/game and 4.4 yards/carry. The other big thing for me is the Bengals are being way overvalued without their top offensive weapon in Jamar Chase. In their first game without Chase, Cincinnati managed just 13 points and 229 yards of total offense against the Browns last week. Joe Burrow, who had just thrown for 459 yards the previous game against the Falcons, threw for just 193. Some of that was the Bengals offensive line not being able to keep the Browns out of the backfield, but I expect more of that against Brian Burns and the Panthers defensive front. I just think given the situation, 7.5 points is way too many. Give me Carolina +7.5! |
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11-06-22 | Raiders -1.5 v. Jaguars | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Week 9. The line here really says it all, as we have Las Vegas laying points on the road after they just had arguably the worst showing of any team all season in last week's 24-0 loss at New Orleans. The Raiders didn't even get the ball past midfield until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The key thing to note with that showing is Las Vegas was dealing with the flu bug and it's really the only thing that could explain that pitiful performance. The only other thing is if this team has just thrown in the towel on this season, but I can't see that being the case this early on. My money is on the Raiders to put that ugly showing behind them with one of their best showings of the season Sunday against a Jags team that just keeps finding ways to lose. Since their big 38-10 upset win at the Chargers back in Week 3, Jacksonville has proceeded to lose 6 straight games. In terms of talent, I don't think this one is that close. The Raiders are as talented of a 2-win team as you will find going into Week 9 of a season. I just trust them to find a way to win this game to save their season. Give me Las Vegas -1.5! |
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11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 38 m | Show |
10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Vikings/Commanders OVER 43.5 I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Vikings and Commanders on Sunday. This to me is way too low a total for this matchup. I get Washington's offense hasn't been able to do much of late, scoring 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Thing is, those low offensive outputs have come against some pretty good defensive teams in the Colts, Packers, Titans, Cowboys and Eagles. Note that while they did only score 17 vs Tennessee, they had 342 passing yards in that game. Minnesota comes into this game at 6-1, but their early season success has all been a result of their high-powered offense. Not their defense. The Vikings come into this game scoring 24.7 ppg and have scored at least 23 points in all but one game (vs the Eagles). Their defense is not very good, giving up 383 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They are especially bad vs the pass, as opposing QBs are completing 68.9% of their attempts against them. Simply put, this is a game where I think both offenses will be able to move the football and put points on the scoreboard. I like both of these teams to at the very minimum eclipse the 20-point mark and that should be more than enough to push us past this low total. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +13.5 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Houston Texans +13.5 I'll take my chances with the Texans as a 13.5-point home dog against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. As difficult as it may be to back Houston in this game, I just feel like there's too much value to pass up. As good as the Eagles are, it's not easy going on the road and playing up to your true potential in a Thursday game. The other big concern I have with Philly is the mindstate of this team coming in. It's been a bit of a cakewalk for the Eagles so far in 2022. They are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers and facing what many feel is the worst team in the league. It's going to be hard for them to take the Texans seriously and for as bad as Houston has been, they have shown they can be competitive. Only game they have lost by more than the number here is a few weeks back against the Raiders and that was a 20-20 game at the half. Road favorites who are outscoring teams by 10+ points/game and off a win by 10 or more points have gone a mere 17-46 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Underdogs who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and facing an opponent that has covered 3 of their last 4 are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Texans +13.5! |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Browns +3.5 I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 3.5-point home dog against the Bengals. Hard to not like a division home dog in prime time, especially one that I think is fairly evenly matched. The Browns are just 2-5, but could very easily have a winning record. They had that crazy loss to the Jets in Week 2 and then 3 of their other 4 losses have all come by a field goal or less. The Bengals have got things going after their 0-2 start, but now Joe Burrow is down his biggest weapon in wide out Ja'Maar Chase. Not that the Bengals don't have other quality receivers, Chase is in a different class. He's Burrow's go to guy when things get bad. Chase has 16 more catches, 150 more yards and 3 more TDs than the next best guy. On the flip side, I like the Browns to be able to run the ball against this Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is giving up 119 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry on the ground. Which spikes to 142 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Browns average 164 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. I just think there's way too much value here with Cleveland catching more than a field goal. Give me the Browns +3.5! |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Lions/Dolphins OVER 51 I'm going to take the OVER 51 in Sunday's early afternoon matchup that has the Dolphins visiting the Lions. To some this total might seem a bit high given what we saw out of these two offenses last week. Miami only managed to score 16-points at home against the Steelers, while Detroit managed just 6-points on the road against the Cowboys. It was a second straight awful showing for the Lions offense, which was shutout in it's previous game at New England. I believe it's actually created some decent value with the total in the low 50's, as I would be shocked if this game didn't get into the 60s. The big thing to note about the Lions recent struggles on offense is they have had to play the last 3 games without stud running back D'Andre Swift. Before his injury, Swift was arguably the best back in the league, as he rushed for 231 yards on just 27 attempts for a staggering 8.6 yards/carry. He's back healthy and ready to roll. They also lost stud wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown to a concussion in the 1st quarter of last week's game against the Cowboys. He's back practicing and should be cleared from concussion protocol any day. It all adds up to a get right game for the Lions offense, especially with how banged up the Dolphins are on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest problems for Miami coming in their secondary, where 6 of their 8 corners listed on the depth chart are either out or questionable. They also just lost starting safety Brandon Jones, whose led the team with 49 tackles, 11 more than the next best player on the team. Also worth noting that despite Swift missing 3 games for Detroit, the Lions still rank 7th in the NFL in rushing at 145.7 ypg. The only other team Miami has faced this season that ranks in the Top 10 in rushing was the Ravens back in Week 2 and Baltimore put up 38 points on the Dolphins. On the flip side of the ball, I think Tua wasn't quite himself in his first game back from injury last week against Pittsburgh. Tua should be in for a field day against a Lions secondary that has given up a ton of big plays in the passing games. Detroit ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The only team worse is the Vikings, who allow 8.4. Note that Miami with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson at quarterback torched that Minnesota secondary for 385 yards a couple weeks ago. Tyreek Hill had 12 catches for 177 yards and Jaylen Waddle had 6 for 129. One last thing that I think needs to be noted with this total is just how easily points have been put on the scoreboard in Detroit home games. In the Lions 3 home games this year they have combined for 73 points with the Eagles, 63 against the Commanders and 93 against the Seahawks. Give me the OVER 51! |
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10-30-22 | Raiders v. Saints OVER 49.5 | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 7 m | Show | |
8* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Saints/Raiders OVER 49.5 I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49.5 in Sunday's game between the Raiders and Saints. I'm shocked this total isn't in the 50s. The Raiders have been a mess defensively all season, as they come in giving up 25.0 ppg, 367 ypg and 5.9 yards/play. Even the Broncos of all teams were able to put up 23 points and over 300 yards on them. Really the only game all season Russell Wilson has looked anything like the QB he was in Seattle. Andy Dalton isn't the long-term answer in New Orleans, but he's definitely given this Saints offense a lift over starter Jameis Winston. So much that NO is sticking with Dalton even though Winston could play if needed. Saints have scored at least 25 in each of their last 4 games and Dalton is coming off a 400+ yard performance last time out against the Cardinals. As good as the offense has been, the Saints defense has been equally as bad, which is why New Orleans is just 1-3 in their last 4. Saints have given up 28 or more in each of their last 4 games. They will be facing a Raiders offense that seems to be figuring things out. In their last 3 games, Las Vegas is averaging 33 ppg, 387.7 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. With perfect conditions inside the Caesars Superdome, I look for both offenses to move the ball at will and for this thing to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 49.5! |
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10-30-22 | Bears +9.5 v. Cowboys | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
8* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Chicago Bears +9.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 9.5-point road dog against the Cowboys. Not many times a team coming off a 33-14 win as a 8.5-point dog will stay undervalued, but that's exactly the case here with Chicago. The Bears are getting no love for their blowout win on the road against New England on Monday Night Football. Some of that has to do with what we have seen prior to that game from Chicago. A lot also has to do with the opponent being the Cowboys, who are one of the biggest public teams in the league. Not to mention Dallas has covered 5 of their last 6 and just won 24-6 as a 7-point favorite in Dak's first game back last week against the Lions. There was definitely value with Dallas when Dak was injured, as backup Cooper Rush played as well as you could have asked for. I know it was his first game back after a long layoff, but I was not impressed with Dak against a Lions defense he should have feasted on. If Detroit doesn't turn the ball over on 5 times in the 2nd half of that game, the Lions easily cover and potentially win outright. Keep in mind Detroit had 1st and Goal from the 1-yard line down just 6-10 in the 4th quarter and fumbled the ball on their first attempt to score. It was all downhill from there. It's not going to be any easier on the Cowboys offense against an underrated Bears defense. One that should only get better if Chicago continues to run the football like they have. After putting up 238 rushing yards against the Commanders, the Bears had 243 rushing yards on the road against a Belichick led defense that knew coming in they just needed to stop the run to keep that offense in check. Fields looked as comfortable as I have seen him and I'm willing to roll the dice at this price that he's able to build off that performance. Give me Chicago +9.5! |
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10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +4 I'll gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4-point road dog against division rival Atlanta on Sunday. Just about everyone, including myself, had written this Panthers team off. I thought after firing head coach Matt Rhule and benching Baker Mayfield we were going to see a different team and they came out that first game under interim head coach Steve Wilks and lost 10-24 at the Rams, totaling just 203 yards of total offense. Who would have thought trading away wide out Robby Anderson and star running back Christian McCaffrey would be the spark this team needed, but they delivered in a big way without those two, beating the Bucs 21-3 as a 13-point dog last Sunday. The first game without McCaffrey and they rushed for a season-high 173 yards. PJ Walker was also an efficient 16 of 22 passing. It certainly seemed to give life to a Panthers' defense that was playing extremely well early on while the offense struggled. I like that defense to not only carry them to cover but an outright win against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense has not been the same since losing Cordarrelle Patterson. He's missed the last 3 games and still leads the team with 340 rushing yards. I also think people got so caught it up in Atlanta covering the spread, they ignored how bad this Falcons offense has been. Marcus Mariota has thrown for 462 yards in his last 4 games combined. He had a mere 107 passing yards in a blowout loss last week to the Bengals and 75 of those yards came on one pass play. Give me the Panthers +4! |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots -2.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Jets. A lot of people might be left scratching their head to why New England is favored in this game. The Pats are coming off a 14-33 loss at home to the Bears as a 8.5-point favorite, while New York has won and covered each of their last 4 games. I might be dead wrong here and the Jets will find a way to win this game, but I think this is the perfect time to sell-high on New York. During the Jets 4-game win streak they have beat a broken Denver team without starting quarterback Russell Wilson, a broken Packers team, a Dolphins team that was down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson and a Steelers team that isn't very good. Their only other win is that crazy comeback in the final minutes vs the Browns in Week 2. Not only do I think the Jets are being overvalued coming into this game, they also have to try and figure out how to keep their offensive afloat after losing stud rookie running back Breece Hall, who had rushed for 463 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 4 TDs. Hall also had 218 yards receiving. I know they traded for James Robinson, but I'm not buying he's going to make a huge impact in his first game. Keep in mind this is a Jets' offense that has been all run of late. New York has just 391 total passing yards in their last 3 games combined. All of that and the Jets are having to go up against what I going to be a pissed off Patriots defense that was just embarrassed on their home field in prime time on Monday Night Football. I will be shocked if this game is even remotely close. Give me the Pats -2.5! |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 46 | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: OVER 46 I'll take my chances with the OVER 46 between the Ravens and Bucs. No one is going to be thinking OVER in this matchup. The UNDER is 6-1 in Tampa Bay games this season and the last thing we saw from the Bucs was them scoring just 3 points against the Panthers. UNDER has also cashed in 4 straight games for Baltimore. Everyone is going to be on the UNDER in this game, yet we have only seen this total get higher as we get closer to kickoff. The total opened at 43.5. I'll gladly side with the big money, as I was already leaning towards a higher scoring game. While it hasn't always been the case this year, these TNF games often end up with a few more points on the board because of how hard it is for these defenses to get right physically on just 3 days of rest. We saw it last week, when everyone was on the Cards/Saints UNDER at just 43 and that game ended up with 76 combined points. As far as this game is concerned, I feel pretty good about Baltimore's offense moving the football. Tampa Bay's run defense has been a weakness, which plays right into the strength of the Ravens offense. On top of that, the Bucs secondary is decimated. Starting safety Logan Ryan is on IR, stud safety Antoine Winfield has been ruled out, as has starting corner Carlton Davis and top backup corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. Maybe I'm putting too much faith into Tom Brady and what looks like a broken Tampa Bay offense, but I think the Bucs are going to bounce back in a big way from last week's pathetic showing against the Panthers. It's not like Tampa Bay didn't move the ball. Bucs only had one 3-and-out the entire game vs Carolina. The run game has been one of the worst performing units not just this season, but ever. Not saying they are going to go off, but they are facing a depleted front 7 of the Ravens, who are down nose tackle Michael Pierce and stud defensive end Calais Campbell. Baltimore secondary has also been exploitable this year. Opposing QBs are completing 67.3% of their attempts against them. Last week Jacoby Brissett completed 22 of 27 (81.5%). It's do or die for Brady and the Bucs offense. Give me the OVER 46! |
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10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50 | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Seahawks/Chargers OVER 50 I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 50 between the Seahawks and Chargers. I've had a lot of success with the OVER in Seattle games this season. I cashed in on the OVER 3 straight weeks when they combined for 50 against the Falcons, 93 against the Lions and 71 against the Saints. I also successfully avoided to taking the OVER last week in their 19-9 win over Arizona. Simply put, I'm not overreacting in the slightest to what this team was able to do last week against the Cardinals. Division games have a way of producing some strange results and more times than not because the two teams are so familiar with one another, they tend to be lower scoring. Nothing for me has changed in terms of how I view this Seattle team. I still think they have a very underrated offense and one of the worst defenses in the league. I give them little to no shot at slowing down this Chargers offense on Sunday. LA is coming into this game off a pretty bad offensive showing against the Broncos on Monday Night Football, as they managed just 19 points and 297 total yards. That's really not all that surprising when you look at how well that Denver defense has been playing. So much attention is being paid to the struggles of the offense with Russell Wilson, people are ignoring the fact that Denver has held 5 of their 6 opponents to 17 or fewer points. The one thing that has really caused Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense problems is when teams have been able to create pressure via the blitz. Seattle's one of the worst blitzing teams in the league. Herbert should have a field day in this game, regardless if Keenan Allen is back or not. On the flip side of the ball, I think this Seattle offense will be able to move the ball against a Chargers defense that is not the same without Joey Bosa on the field. LA is also atrocious against the run, giving up 5.6 yards/carry vs teams that on average get 4.7 yards/carry. Seattle comes in averaging 5.3 yards/carry vs teams that only give up 4.4 yards/carry. I think both teams have a legit shot to eclipse the 30-point mark in this game. Give me the OVER 50! |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos -1 | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 46 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SHOCKER: Denver Broncos -1 You might think I'm crazy backing the Broncos with how they have struggled of late, but I just can't help myself here with Denver basically at a pick'em in this one. Just a few weeks ago this line would have been pushing a touchdown. Now after the Jets big road win over Green Bay and Denver coming off another awful offensive showing on MNF, the line has been way over-adjusted. The one thing that is getting way overlooked with this Denver team is their defense. The Broncos have held 5 of their 6 opponents this season to fewer than 20 points and yet are just 2-4 in those games. I think their defense and playing at home is enough to carry them to a win in this game. I also think as bad as the Broncos offense has been, there have been some flashes of what they could become. This will never be the elite offense we all expected when Denver landed Wilson in the trade with Seattle, but I'm confident it won't continue to be as bad as it's been. The Jets have went from being a team everyone thought was terrible to now having to play with expectations. That can be a difficult thing to do and it would not surprise me in the least if New York laid an egg in this game. Keep in mind this is their second straight game on the road and 3rd time in the last 4 weeks they are playing on the road. Not to mention they got a big home game against their hated rivals in New England looming on deck next week. Give me the Broncos -1! |
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10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 39 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Detroit Lions +7 I like the value with the Lions catching a full 7-points on the road against the Cowboys. I just feel like Dallas is coming into this game way overpriced because of Dak's return from injury. Everyone is just assuming that the Cowboys are going to be better because he's back, but I gotta see it to believe it. The offense did not look good with him in Week 1 and it was like they ran a completely different offense with Cooper Rush. They just try to force the pass too much with Dak. I also don't love the spot for Dallas, as they put in a lot to last week's big division showdown with the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. While the Cowboys' could be a bit flat, we should get an A+ effort from the Lions in this one. Detroit is coming off of their bye week and should be extremely motivated given they went into their bye with a 29-0 loss at New England. The offense did play well against the Patriots, but they were without Swift and star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown was playing at less than 100%. Both are expected to be on the field Sunday. Detroit is a team that also just doesn't go away and have thrived in this spot under head coach Campbell. Lions are 9-2 ATS under Campbell as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me Detroit +7! |