Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-23-22 | Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Green Bay Packers -4.5 I might be kicking myself tomorrow afternoon after this game gets going, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Packers laying less than a touchdown at Washington. This is a bad Commanders team that is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball. Forget about the Packers offensive struggles for a second. Green Bay is giving up just 299 total yards per game. Simply put, this is a big time buy-low spot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has lost 2 straight games. First it was the 2nd half collapse against the Giants in London, then it was an absolutely brutal showing at home against the Jets. If this team is anything close to what we thought coming into the year, they should respond in a big way in this game. I know they failed in this spot last week after their loss to the Giants, but it's worth noting that the Packers are a dominant 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss. Green Bay is also 8-2 ATS last 10 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 4-1 ATS last 5 (doesn't happen often) when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Packers -4.5! |
|||||||
10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 40 m | Show |
10* NFL Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 I really like the Jaguars as a 3-point home favorite. The books are begging the public to take the Giants in this one. New York is 5-1 and getting all kinds of praise from the media after knocking off the Packer and Ravens the last two weeks. Jags on the other hand are just 2-4 and riding a 3-game losing streak. It makes no sense that Jacksonville is a field goal favorite here. That tells me the books really like the Jags in this one and I'm on board. As good a story as the Giants have been, they are not exactly playing like a 5-1 team. In fact, this team is a lot closer to being 1-5 than most people realize. New York trailed the Titans 0-13 at the half in Week 1 and wound up winning the game 21-20 on a late TD. They barely squeaked by with a 19-16 win at home against an awful Panthers team. They led the Bears just 14-12 late in the 3rd quarter of a 20-12 win. They erased a double-digit 2nd half deficit in London in a 27-22 win over Green Bay. Last week they were down 10 midway thru the 4th quarter to the Ravens and won the game 24-20. I just think it's going to catch up to this team at some point and we should be getting the very best the Jags have to offer with them having lost their last 3. Even though they have taken a step back from their early season success, I still think this is a solid Jags team. Give me Jacksonville -3! |
|||||||
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
10* NFL - Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Saints/Cardinals OVER 43.5 I love the OVER 44.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, as we have the Saints visiting the Cardinals. There has been nearly no offense in these Thursday matchups the last two weeks. First it was the 12-9 OT win for the Colts against the Seahawks in Week 5. Then we saw the Commanders prevail 12-7 last week. I believe that is definitely playing into the number being much lower than it should be. I also think the total here is being impacted by what we saw last week with Arizona's offense in a 9-19 loss at Seattle. It's not so much they lost, but the fact that the Cardinals couldn't even reach double-figures against a Seattle defense that came into that game viewed as one of the worst defensive teams in the league. It is worth noting that Arizona did have multiple drives into Seahawks territory that resulted in no points. The offense also figures to get a HUGE boost this week with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. I also think the Saints defense is being way overvalued. New Orleans has not played well at all on that side of the ball the past few weeks. In their last 3 games the Saints are giving up 30.0 ppg, 362.7 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. I also think people are sleeping a bit on this Saints offense because it's Andy Dalton at quarterback. New Orleans has scored 25 or more in 3 straight games. Arizona is giving up a staggering 28.0 ppg, 395 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Give me the OVER 43.5 |
|||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Denver Broncos +5 I'll take my chances with the Broncos catching 5-points on the road against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Denver in this game. The Broncos haven't even come close to resembling the team that we expected to see when they landed Russell Wilson in a trade this past offseason. As bad as the offense has looked, I don't think it's in as bad a shape as what it's being made out to be. Denver has actually moved the ball well at times. They are gaining 343.6 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They have just been historically bad whenever they get in the red zone. They simply can't have that bad of luck in the red zone the rest of the way and I think this has the potential to be a breakout game for them. The Chargers defense has not been playing well at all of late. In LA's last 3 games, they are giving up a staggering 30.0 ppg and 400.7 ypg. The bigger thing to note is that the struggles have come against the likes of the Jaguars, Texans and Browns. On the other side of the ball, LA's offense has one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert, but he's playing behind a banged up offensive line that has struggled some since losing starting left tackle Rashawn Slater. Denver has some pass rushers that should be able to exploit that o-line and one of the better secondaries in the game. Broncos are only giving up 177 passing yards/game. Division games have a way of coming down to the wire and I see this being one of those games that isn't decided until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. That makes Denver an easy play for me catching north of a field goal. Give me the Broncos +5! |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas City Chiefs +3 I will take the Chiefs as a 3-point home dog against the Bills in arguably the most anticipated regular-season game of the year after what took place last January between these two teams in the playoffs. All you are going to hear this week is about how Buffalo is going to get their revenge on KC after letting one get away in their 36-42 OT loss to the Chiefs. The biggest talking point being the Bills allowing Mahomes and the Chiefs to get a game tying field goal with just 13 seconds to work with. What people are quick to forget in that game is the Chiefs had a 23-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter. KC outgained the Bills 552 to 422. Not to mention Buffalo got as good a game out of a WR as you could have with Gabe Davis catching 8 passes for 201 yards and 4 scores. I just don't see KC letting Davis beat them over the top in this one. I also think that while the Chiefs secondary hasn't been great at times, KC's getting back stud rookie corner Trent McDuffie for this game and their pass rush compared to last year is vastly improved. I also think that for as much as Buffalo wants to win this game, the same could be said for Kansas City. All you have heard all offseason and thru the first 5 weeks is how good this Bills team is. How they are the team to beat and how Josh Allen is a lock for MVP. I don't think it's sat well with this team at all and there's no question that Patrick Mahomes takes notes on what people say. As good as Allen is, Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and he'll do everything in his power to get them a win in this game. I think getting a field goal at home is too good to pass up. Give me the Chiefs +3! |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Panthers +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 53 m | Show |
10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +10.5 I love the Panthers as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 6. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot with Carolina, who just fired head coach Matt Rhule and it looks like starting quarterback Baker Mayfield won't play with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week's ugly loss to the 49ers. All of that only makes me like the Panthers that much more in this spot. Teams always seem to respond with a huge effort in that first game after a head coach is fired and it certainly felt like Rhule had lost this team. As for Mayfield, I'm not so sure he should be playing if he was healthy. He's been awful thru the first 5 weeks and it doesn't feel like he's got a great rapport with his teammates. You also got to believe the inability of the offense to get anything going has worn on the defense, as they got talent on that side of the ball. I'm counting on Mayfield not being able to play, as I think the offense needs a new face. At the very least it's not a downgrade going from Mayfield to backup PJ Walker. On the flip side of this, I believe we are still seeing the Rams being way overvalued by the books after their Super Bowl win last year. LA is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, yet they haven't been more than a 2-point dog in any game. The offense relies way too much on Cooper Kupp and they not only can't run the ball, they don't even try to establish the run anymore. They have scored 20 or fewer points in all but one game. It's hard to win by double-digits when you aren't explosive on offense. Keep in mind that as bad as Mayfield and the Panthers offense has looked, they come into they are scoring 18.6 ppg. The Rams are averaging a mere 16.0 ppg. Both teams are averaging an identical 5.2 yards/play. I not only think Carolina will cover, I think they got a real shot here to win outright. Give me the Panthers +10.5! |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 51 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Seattle Seahawks +3 I will gladly take the Seahawks as a 3-point home dog against the Cardinals in Week 5. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out Seattle thus far this season. Everyone thought it was crazy that the Seahawks traded away a franchise QB the caliber of Russell Wilson, yet it's Wilson and the Broncos offense that is struggling while Seattle's offense is thriving under Geno Smith. If it wasn't for the defense being so bad, the Seahawks could easily be sitting here at 4-1. While the defense scares me to death in this matchup, I love Seattle here as a division home dog against a Cardinals team that is overrated and in a horrible spot. I'm not saying the defense is going to play well, but there is reason to think they will be competent in this matchup. With Arizona being a division rival, they know what Kyler Murray and that offense want to do. I also think bad defenses show much better at home where they can feed off the home crowd. As for the bad spot for Arizona, I think this team could have a tough time picking themselves up off the mat after last week's gut-wrenching 17-20 loss at home to the Eagles. Philly is getting hyped up as the best team in the NFC, rightfully so. That combined with them being undefeated has everyone lining up to give the Eagles their best shot. I think a prime example of this is what we saw from Jacksonville last week after their loss the Eagles the week before. The Jags played their worst game of the season and ended up losing at home to a bad Texans team. I also think you got to look at what Arizona has done as a whole this year. They should at the very least be 1-4 and aren't far from 0-5. They trailed 23-7 in a 39-23 OT win at Las Vegas in Week 2 and were tied 10-10 going into the 4th quarter of a 26-16 win over a Panthers team that has looked awful thru the first 5 weeks. I'm not so sure the right team is favored. Give me the Seahawks +3! |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +9.5 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a 9.5-point home dog against the Buccaneers. Great time to buy low on Pittsburgh, who is just 1-4 and fresh off an ugly 38-3 loss at Buffalo last week. We should get a big time effort from the Steelers after that awful showing. I also don't think you can overreact to that loss, given just how good the Bills are. If you remember back to MNF in Week 2, Buffalo absolutely destroyed the Titans 41-7. Everyone was saying how bad Tennessee was and the Titans have since won 3 straight games. As ugly as the final score was, 3-points was as bad as Pittsburgh could have done. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 327 yards. The Steelers offense had the ball inside the Bills 40-yard line 6 times on their first 9 drives and only came away with 3 points. They turned it over on downs twice, missed two field goals and had another drive end in an interception. They also had another drive late in the 4th quarter where they got in the red zone and turned it over on downs. I don't think people who don't follow this team closely really understand how much better this offense is with Pickett instead of Mitch Trubisky. I also don't think the defense is as bad it showed in that game. They just had no answer for Josh Allen and that passing attack. Buffalo had 5 different receivers log a catch of 26 or more yards. Gabe Davis had a 98-yard and a 62-yard TD catch. Yes, it's Tom Brady on the other side this week, but this is not the same potent Tampa Bay offense that they have been the last two years. It's been better of late, but still lacks explosion. It's a lot of dink and dunk right now. Leonard Fournette led the team with 10 receptions and 83 yards last week. That's also not a very good Atlanta defense. Really the only time this offense has shown us anything is in Week 4 in a 31-41 loss at home to the Chiefs. Big thing to note about that is the Chiefs were up 38-17 in the final minute of the 4th quarter I just think when you factor in how motivated Pittsburgh will be, how underrated the offense is coming into this game, the Bucs not being an offensive juggernaut and how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL, you have to roll the dice with the Steelers at this price. Give me Pittsburgh +9.5! |
|||||||
10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 I will gladly take the 2.5-points with the Jaguars in Sunday's road game against the Colts. I just don't know what Indianapolis has done to deserve to be favored in this spot. These two teams played back in Week 2 at Jacksonville and the Jaguars completely dominated that matchup from start to finish. Jacksonville won the game 24-0, with their defense limiting Indy to just 218 yards and 9 first downs. The key here is we are catching the Jags in a massive buy-low spot after last week's shocking 6-13 home loss to the Texans as a 7-point favorite. No one (including myself) was giving Houston any shot in that game. Needless to say the Jags burned a lot of people last week, whether they laid the big number on the spread, teased Jacksonville down to a near pick'em or backed them in survivor. The narrative has gone from this might be one of the surprise teams in the NFL to this is a team who overachieved early and is now showing it's true colors. Maybe I'm wrong, but I still think this is a pretty good football team. They outgained the Texans 422 to 248. Scoring just 6 points was the worst possible outcome given how well they moved the ball. You just have to wonder if there was not only a lack of respect given to Houston, but also a bit of a letdown coming off that tough loss at Philly the week before. Going back to the Colts. It's a miracle Indy isn't coming into this game at 0-5 and yet they are 2-2-1. Indy trailed 3-20 going into the 4th quarter and managed to pull out a 20-20 tie against the Texans in Week 1. The Chiefs couldn't have played any worse against the Colts in Week 3 and it still took a TD in the final seconds for Indy to win that game 20-17. If KC doesn't have an awful backup kicker they lose that game. Then there's last week's 12-9 OT win against the Broncos, which I'm sure most of you saw as it was the Thursday Night Football matchup. Denver gave that game to them in on silver platter. What's made the Colts so bad is the horrific play they are getting out of their offensive line. Indy's front five hasn't shown the ability to pass protect or run block. They tried to switch up the starting unit against the Broncos and it was just as bad as before. It's not getting any better and I just don't see how you can expect them to move this ball against this Jags defense. In their first meeting, the Jaguars sacked Matt Ryan 5 times and held Indy to just 54 yards rushing. Give me Jacksonville +2.5! |
|||||||
10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Raiders/Chiefs OVER 51.5 I'm taking the OVER 51.5 in the Raiders/Chiefs game on Monday Night Football. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. The OVER has cashed in each of the last 4 meetings in this series. Last year they combined for 55 in Las Vegas and 57 in KC. The year before they combined for 72 and 66. In those 4 starts, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are avering 39.0 ppg. Mahomes is averaging 338.0 passing yards/game and has thrown 11 TDs to 4 INTs. I don't see why this year will be any different. The Raiders have allowed at least 23 points in every game they have played this year, including 23 last week to that awful Broncos offense. KC comes into this game averaging 32.3 ppg vs teams that on average only give up 21.8 ppg. Key here is the Raiders should at the very least be able to keep this game respectable. The Chiefs defense, is much improved, but are much better against the run than they are the pass. Carr and that Raiders passing attack should be in store for a big day. I think there's a chance we could see both teams push the 30-point mark. Give me the OVER 51.5! |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Philadelphia Eagles -5 Laying points on the road with a public favorite is typically a recipe for disaster in the NFL, but there's no way I'm not betting the Eagles laying less than a touchdown against the Cardinals I jus don't think Arizona is any good. I think for every great play Kyler Murray makes he makes 9 average plays. He also doesn't seem to show up early in games. I certainly don't think that Arizona offense is going to be able to do much against this Eagles defense. Philly comes in giving up just 17.8 ppg, but I think they are even better than that. They gave up 35 in Week 1 to the Lions, but most of that came in garbage time. Eagles led 31-14 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They held a good Vikings offense to 7 points and gave up 8 in Week 3 to the Commanders (was 24-2 with less than 2 minutes to play). Last week they gave up 21 to the Jags, but 7 of those were from a pick six and Jacksonville had just 1 offensive TD midway thru the 4th quarter of that game. Even if Arizona's defense plays well, which I think is unlikely, I don't think their offense will do enough to cover. Cardinals defense has looked better the last 3 weeks after giving up 44 in their opener to the Chiefs, but their last 3 games have come against an AWFUL Panthers offense, struggling Rams offense and an underachieving Raiders offense. Philly's offense probably isn't as good as it's performed so far, but it's still one of the better offenses in the league. I would not be surprised if Hurts and company behind that great offensive line put up a big number in this one. Give me the Eagles -5! |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Steelers v. Bills OVER 46 | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 32 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Steelers OVER 46 I'm going to take the OVER 46 between the Steelers and Bills on Sunday. I just think there's some hidden value with the OVER in this one. Some of the value I believe stems from the Steelers finally putting to bed the Mitchell Trubisky experiment. I'd be lying if I said I thought Trubisky was going to be as bad as he's been. Before getting benched in last week's loss to the Jets, Trubisky had just 2 TD passes on 116 attempts and was only averaging 5.6 yards/attempt. The biggest thing for me is he wasn't just struggling because he didn't have time to throw. He was missing wide open guys. Simply could not read an opposing defense. If his first look wasn't open chances of a completion for any kind of significant gain was extremely low. Simply put, whether he's ready or not, the offense can't be any worse with rookie Kenny Pickett and I'm a believer it's going to be better. I know Pickett came in and threw 3 picks against the Jets, but some of that was bad luck. Those were his only 3 incompletions, as he went 10 of 13 for 120 yards, which came to 9.2 yards/attempt. Little bit of a side note here, but George Pickens is a guy I think could really see his production go up with Pickett now at quarterback. In a single half of football, Pickett connected with Pickens 4 times for 71 yards. In 3.5 games with Trubisky, Pickens had 7 catches for 96 yards. Draft Kings has Picken's over/under receiving yards for this game set at 37.5. I can assure you I'll be on the OVER. I'm also strongly considering playing him as a any time TD scorer at +130 and OVER 17.5 for his longest reception. Back to the handicap on the total here. One of the reasons I like all those Pickens' props is I don't think this Steelers defense in it's current form will be able to contain this Bills offense. Pittsburgh is still without T.J. Watt and are just not the same defense without him on the field. Not only that, but you got injury concerns up and down the lineup on the defensive side of the ball. Stud defensive end Cam Heyward is question. Their second is also decimated. Starting corner Ahkello Witherspoon is doubtful. There other starting corner Cameron Sutton is questionable, as his both starting safeties Terrell Edmunds and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Bills are also dealing with a bunch of injuries on their defense, especially in the secondary where they are down both starting corner Tre'Davis White and safety Micah Hyde. This to me is also a real flat spot for the Buffalo defense. They just played their hearts out overcoming that big early deficit to the Ravens last week and have without a doubt their biggest game on the schedule looming next week at home against the Chiefs. I don't think they are going to be that sharp in this game. Give me the OVER 46. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders OVER 42.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 21 m | Show | |
8* NFL Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT: Commanders/Titans OVER 42.5 I will take a shot on the OVER 42.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Titans and Commanders. While I certainly don't think Washington's offense is anything special, I do think that offense comes in a bit undervalued after their last two games, which saw them score just 8 points at home against the Eagles and 10 on the road against the Cowboys. You got to take into consideration just how good both Philadelphia and Dallas have been on the defensive side of the ball so far this year. The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in pass defense and are 3rd in the NFL in sacks. The Eagles are 7th vs the pass and 2nd in the league in sacks. Carson Wentz thru for just 308 yards combined in those two games. In the previous two games vs the Lions and Jaguars he threw for 300+ yards in each game with Washington scoring 28 and 27 points in those two contests. Tennessee ranks 28th vs the pass and are middle of the pack in the league in sacks. On the season the Titans are giving up 25.3 ppg, 392 ypg and 6.5 yards/play vs teams that on average are putting up 21.3 ppg, 358 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. On the flip side of this, Washington's defense isn't very good. The Commanders are giving up 26.8 ppg, 372 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. Yes they are facing a Titans team that is only scoring 18.8 ppg and averaging 309 ypg, but that's come against teams who on average are giving up just 19.0 ppg and 215 ypg. I think both teams will easily get into the 20s and I could see this thing being OVER the total midway thru the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 42.5! |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots -3 | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3 I'm shocked the Patriots are only 3-point favorites at home against the Lions. I know the Patriots are just 1-3 to start the year and are likely down to 3rd string quarterback Bailey Zappe. That's where the value comes from. It's not that surprising to me that the Patriots are 1-3. A lot of teams would be with their schedule. The Patriots have played road games against the Dolphins and Packers. Their other two were home games against the Steelers and Ravens. They beat Pittsburgh, but lost to Baltimore. I've actually thought New England has looked better than what I anticipated coming into the season. They outgained the Ravens 447 to 394 and had a lead in the 2nd half of that game. They also lost in OT at Lambeau. This game against the Lions will technically be Zappe's first start, but he pretty much played the whole game against the Packers. Backup Brian Hoyer was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter. Zappe didn't light it up with just 99 yards, but he did complete 10 of 15 attempts with a 25-yard TD pass to DeVante Parker. That was against a pretty good Green Bay defense. I think he'll be even better having that game experience to go off of. It also helps he's playing a BAD Lions defense. Detroit hasn't been able to stop anybody. They are giving up a staggering 35.3 ppg, 445 ypg and 6.7 yards/play. That's against teams who on average are scoring just 23.1 ppg, 368 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. The saving grace for the Lions this year has been their offense, which has been one of the best in the league. Detroit's scoring 35.0 ppg, putting up 437 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's definitely a good offense, but I'm not convinced it's as good as people think. The have feasted on two bad defenses in the Commanders and Seahawks. They only had 24 points at the Vikings and while they scored 35 against the Eagles, that game was 31-14 in favor of Philadelphia less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. The other big thing is the health of this Lions' offense. Detroit won't have stud running back D'Andre Swift. They are down one of their top wide outs in DJ Chark. Their top WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable, as is fellow starter Josh Reynolds. They also have ben hit hard with injuries on the o-line. I think the Lions offense comes back to reality and the Patriots end up winning this game going away. This is definitely a game I might end up putting a little more on before kickoff. Give me Detroit. |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 71 h 9 m | Show | |
8* NFL Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Cleveland Browns +2.5 I will take my chances with the Browns as a 2.5-point home dog against the Chargers. The betting public can't get to the ticket window fast enough to lay this short number with LA, yet the line is only getting shorter. That on it's own is enough reason to bet Cleveland. With that said, I do think there's more than just a reverse line move that says back the Browns in this one. I think the perception on Cleveland has really taken a hit the last few weeks. First it was the unthinkable collapse at home to the Jets and then last week's 4th quarter meltdown in a 20-23 loss at Atlanta. This team could very easily be 4-0 right now and should at the very least be 3-1. If that were the case I think they would be favored to win this game. I also love the matchup for the Browns. That Chargers defense is really built to stop the pass, as they continue to try and figure out a way to overtake Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC West. They are not good at stopping the run and are facing a Browns defense that comes in No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 187.3 ypg. I also have a lot of concerns with the Chargers offensive line, which has lost a top tier left tackle for the season in Rashawn Slater. A loss that could really show up this week. Myles Garrett is back at practice and while he's listed as questionable, I got a pretty good feeling he will play. One last thing, I think time of possession could be huge in this game. Cleveland is going to be to take the air out of the football and limit the number of possessions for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, especially given how bad LA is running the ball this year. They aren't going to be able to give their defense any kind of significant break. I could see this being very similar to the Chargers game against the Jags, where Jacksonville had the ball for over 38 minutes in a 38-10 win. Give me the Browns +2.5! |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -3 I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Dolphins as they go to New York to take on the Jets in a AFC East clash. I just feel like we are getting some exceptional value with Miami because of the fact that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn't going to play. I don't see much of a dropoff from Tua to backup Teddy Bridgewater. In relief of Tua last week against the Bengals, Bridgewater completed 14 of 23 (61%) attempts for 193 yards (8.4 yards/attempt). I wasn't surprised at all that the Dolphins lost that game at Cincinnati, as that was about as tough a spot as they will be in all year. Miami had just 3 days to prepare for the Bengals and were coming off a huge upset win at home against Super Bowl favorite Buffalo. A game in which their defense was on the field for 90+ snaps. There's a lot of fraud teams out there in the NFL thru the first 4 weeks and the Jets are definitely one of those teams. New York is somehow 2-0, despite having trailed by 10 or more points in the 4th quarter of every game. Outside of the final minutes of the 4th quarter when it feels like the opposing defense is letting up, the Jets offense hasn't been able to much of anything. New York comes in averaging just 19.0 ppg. They have failed to rush for 100 yards in every game. Miami's defensive numbers don't look great, but a lot of that has to do with their schedule. In their last 3 games they have played 3 of the best QBs in the league in Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. In their one game against an average to below average QB, they held the Patriots to just 7 points and 271 total yards in a 20-7 win. I also think it's worth noting that the Jets somehow managed to sweep the season series with Miami last year. The Dolphins are not going to overlook this game and a lack of focus is the only thing I think could keep Miami from winning this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
|||||||
10-09-22 | Texans v. Jaguars -7 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -7 I absolutely love the Jaguars as a mere 7-point home favorite against the Texans in Week 5 of the NFL. The Jaguars were really gaining a lot of steam going into last week's big showdown at Philly. In their previous 2 games they had beat the Colts 24-0 at home and rolled the Chargers 38-10 on the road. It started off great against Philly, as Jacksonville jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter, but it was all Eagles from there. Philadelphia scored 29 unanswered points and went on to win the game 29-21. Not only that but the Jags managed just 219 total yards and turned it over 5 times. Sure it doesn't look good, but that's about as bad as Jacksonville could have played and yet they still only lost by 8 despite all the offensive struggles and turnovers. Let's also not ignore the fact that game was played in the rain, which I think really benefited the Eagles and their strong run game. I always like to back good teams who are coming off a bad game, especially when they are facing a bad team like they are here with the Texans. Had Jacksonville won that game, who knows if they would have taken this game seriously. They certainly will having lost the way they did. I know the Texans have been respectable thru their first 4 games, but their first 3 games were against the Colts, Broncos and Bears. While they did tie Indy 20-20, it's worth noting that the Colts offense that couldn't have looked much worse in their 3 other games put up 517 total yards on the Texans. They also trailed 7-27 at the Chargers last week before eventually cutting it 3 and losing by 10. I'm not so sure this isn't the worst team in the league. I don't see Houston's offense being able to get anything going against a pissed off Jacksonville defense and I don't see the Texans being to slow down the Jaguars offense. Give me the Jags -7! |
|||||||
10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -3 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Denver Broncos -3 I think we are getting an exceptional price here with the Broncos laying only a field goal at home against the Colts. The public perception here is we have a couple of teams that are not as good as what we thought coming into this year. Almost everyone was picking the Colts to win the AFC South and there was plenty of buzz about Denver being that team that dethrones the Chiefs in the AFC West. After the first 4 weeks of the season, it's up in the air if these two teams will even make the playoffs. For a lot of people, they will have a tough time feeling good about betting either of these teams, which is why I think we are getting a good price here. I'm way more concerned about the Colts going forward than I am the Broncos. Unlike the Broncos, who I think will only get better as Russell Wilson gets a better understanding of the offense and his new weapons, I'm not sure how Indy is going to turn this thing around. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts offensive line play has been brutal. They are 27th in the NFL in rushing at 87.8 ypg and Matt Ryan has been sacked 15 times. Their receiving corps lacks a go-to guy and for the time being are without running back Jonathan Taylor, who was really the guy who made this team what it was last year. Keep in mind the run game is what made this team great last year. They finished 2021 ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 149.9 ypg and were T-9th in sacks allowed at 32. Now Taylor is out with a ankle injury. I just have a hard time seeing that offensive going into the thin air of Denver on just 3-days of rest and performing well against a Broncos defense that is outstanding in the secondary and Top 10 in sacks. Not saying it will be easy for Wilson and that Denver offense against a pretty good Indianapolis defense, but I got a lot more faith in them being able to sustain drives and most importantly finish them off with TDs. Give me the Broncos -3! |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: San Francisco 49ers PK I'm going to back the 49ers as a pick'em at home against the Rams. The 49ers are off to a disappointing 1-2 start with ugly losses on the road to the Bears and Broncos. San Francisco has showed little to no signs of life on offense, which a lot of people are going to see as a big concern against the Rams. On the flip side the Rams, the defending champs, are 2-1, having won their last two after that ugly Week 1 loss to the Bills. They are also coming off an easy cover in a 20-13 win as a 3-point favorite at Arizona. Simply put, everyone is going to being picking LA to win and cover the spread. The books know this. You have to ask yourself, why aren't the Rams a bigger favorite here? It feels like to me the books are taking a stance with San Francisco. I see where they are coming from. As bad as the offense has been for the 49ers, the defense has looked incredible. The 49ers are giving up just 12.3 ppg, 227 ypg and 4.1 yards/play. You can't run on this front. SF is allowing just 2.8 yards/carry and holding teams 2.1 yards/rush under their season average. This to me is a problem for the Rams. LA is one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They are averaging just 72 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. The 49ers should be able to make the Rams one dimensional. I just don't think LA's offensive line is going to be able to hold up, if Stafford has to drop back every snap. This o-line isn't anything close to the unit they won the Super Bowl with. Stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. Starting center Brian Allen was for the foreseeable future in Week 1. Starting right guard Coleman Shelton has had to move inside to center. Problem is his backups Logan Bruss and Tremayne Anchrum Jr. are both on IR. They will also be without starting left guard Brian Allen (concussion) in this game. One other thing, I think there's this perception that the Rams are this great defensive team. They got some great players, but I question the talent around them. I still think SF is a better offensive team with Jimmy G. As bad as he looked in his first start last week, it's not easy winning at Denver and that Broncos defense is sneaky good. Rams gave up 31 to the Bills and 27 to Falcons. They held the Cardinals to just 12 points, but Arizona had a very respectable 365 total yards in that game. Give me the 49ers PK! |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Raiders | 23-32 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos +2.5 I'm going to take the Broncos as a 2.5-point road dog against the Raiders on Sunday. This is being labeled a "must-win" for the Raiders after their 0-3 start. I'm not saying it isn't but the idea that Las Vegas has to win has the public quick to back the Raiders at home laying less than a field goal. I also think there's a lot of negativity towards Denver right now because their offense isn't performing like people expected. I believe the Broncos are the right side in this matchup and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game going away. Denver's offense is not as bad as people are making it out to be. They should have 30+ points in their opener against the Seahawks and would have had they not fumbled twice on the 1-yard line when going in for a TD. Sure they looked bad last week against the 49ers, but San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league. The Raiders are not a good defensive team. Las Vegas is giving up 25.7 ppg, 376 ypg and 5.8 yards/play vs teams that are averaging just 19.0 ppg, 337 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. This is a defense that Russell Wilson and that Denver offense should be able to exploit. On the flip side of this, I really like what I've seen out of this Denver defense. The Broncos have a great pass rush and one of the better secondaries in the NFL. They have allowed 177, 154 and 179 passing yards in their first 3 games. Raiders have not been able to run the ball, averaging just 80 ypg on the ground, which means they will be trying to attack the strength of this Broncos defense. Give me Denver +2.5! |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Seahawks v. Lions OVER 47.5 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 49 h 0 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Seahawks/Lions OVER 47.5 I'm going to take the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's game between the Lions and Seahawks. I cashed in on the OVER 42 in last week's game between the Seahawks and Falcons. We got there with relative ease, as the two had 43 points with time to spare in the 3rd quarter. They ended up combining for 50 points without a single point scored in the 4th quarter. Seattle finished that game averaging 6.1 yards/play and the Falcons averaged 7.1 yards/play. I like the OVER in this game for a lot of the same reasons. The biggest of those being the Seattle defense and just how bad it is. The Seahawks' defense ranks 29th in the NFL, giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season. That's with them playing two really bad offenses in the Broncos and 49ers and a very average Falcons offense. This to me is the worst defense in the NFL right now. So while Detroit will be without their star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown and top running back D'Andre Swift, I see them having no problem moving the ball up and down the field. Especially with the big edge up front with the Lions top tier offensive line facing off a very bad front for Seattle. I also mentioned last week how I thought the Seahawks offense was being undervalued going into their game with the Falcons due to the fact that they had played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Broncos and 49ers. They did end up with just 23 points, but as I mentioned they averaged 6.1 yards/play. They ended the game with 420 total yards and were over 50% on 3rd down. The only reason they didn't score more is they were just 2/5 in the redzone. I don't see them having any problem moving the ball against a bad Lions defense. Detroit has given up 38 to the Eagles, 27 to the Commanders and 28 to the Vikings in 3 games. They are allowing 142 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry on the ground and giving up 408 ypg and 6.0 yards/play. This should have no problem getting to 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 I will lay the 3.5 with the Colts at home against the Titans in Week 4. While the Colts are coming off a 20-17 upset win over the Chiefs last week as a 4.5-point dog, no one is really giving this team any credit for that victory. All the talk is about how Kansas City gave that game away. No question the Colts caught some breaks in that game, but that's the kind of win that can turn things around for a team. The biggest thing that has held the Indy offense back the last two games is they haven't been able to get the running game going. Just keep in mind the Jags lead the NFL in run defense, giving up just 55.0 ypg on the ground and KC is 9th, allowing just 86.7 ypg. The Titans are 29th in the league, giving up 145 ypg and dead last in the NFL, allowing 5.8 yards/carry. This should be a breakout game for Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor and with Tennessee having to focus all their attention on him, it should also mean a big day for Matt Ryan and the passing game. On the flip side of this, we know the Titans are a team that wants to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Thing is, Henry hasn't looked himself in 2022 and Indy comes into this game allowing a league low 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. I look for the Colts to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game going away. Give me the Colts -3.5! |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Jets v. Steelers -3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
10* NFL - Bookie Slaughter PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 I love the Steelers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets in Week 4. This to me is the perfect buy-low spot on Pittsburgh. The Steelers are just 1-2 to start the year and because their offense has struggled to get anything going, no one really wants anything to do with this team. I believe it's created some big time value with the Steelers laying only a field goal at home against a bad Jets team. New York should be 3-0, but had that crazy comeback in Week 2 at Cleveland. With 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, the Jets have trailed 24-3, 30-17 and 27-9. They have 4 TDs thru 3 games in the final 2 minutes of regulation, which has made them appear a little more competent than they are. You might be saying, they should be a lot better with Zach Wilson expected to make his first start of the season. I'm not buying it. Wilson is going to be rusty and is facing a very good Steelers defense that knows how to disguise their coverages. I also think people are quick to ignore how well Joe Flacco was playing. Flacco was averaging over 300 yards passing per game. I'm not saying the Steelers offensive problems are going to be fixed, but this is by far the least talented defense they have faced so far this season. Not to mention the defense should help them out with plenty of 3 and outs and short fields off turnovers. This line to me is a good 3-points lower than it should be. Give me the Steelers -3! |
|||||||
10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 48 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFL - ATS Blowout PLAY OF THE MONTH: Buffalo Bills -3 I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Bills against the Ravens on Sunday. Going into last week's game against the Dolphins, everyone was talking about how good this Buffalo team is and how they got a legit shot to run the table. They end up losing 19-21 on the road to Miami and now it's like everyone isn't so sure about this team. I also think there's a lot of people falling in love with this Ravens team because of how good Lamar Jackson has been. I know a loss is a loss, but if you watched that game last week, Buffalo should have won that game by double-digits. The Bills outgained the Dolphins 497 to 212, had 31 first downs to Miami's 15 and ran 90 plays to the Dolphins 39. This is still the elite Bills team that we saw dominate the Rams on the road in Week 1 and destroy the Titans at home in Week 2. As for the Ravens, Jackson has been incredible to start this season and will likely continue to put up big numbers. The thing is, he's got no choice with how bad this Ravens' defense is. Baltimore was fortunate to only give up 9 points to the Jets in Week 1, as NY had 378 total yards in that game. Ravens then allowed 42 and over 500 yards to the Dolphins at home in Week 2 and last week let Mac Jones and a struggling Patriots offense go up and down the field on them. Thru 3 games the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the NFL and it's not even close. Baltimore is giving up 353.3 ypg. The next worst is the Dolphins, who are giving up 299.3 ypg. Josh Allen and the Bills offense are going to score at will and while they might not be able to shutdown Jackson, Buffalo's defense is going to get more than enough stops to easily cover this spread. Give me the Bills -3! |
|||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47 | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
10* NFL - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Dolphins/Bengals OVER 47 I love the OVER 47 in Week 4's NFL Thursday Night Football matchup. I think we are at the point in the season where these Thursday games on a just 3 days of rest really have an impact on the teams playing. It's just really hard for NFL players to recover in just 3 days and I feel it has the biggest impact on the defensive side of the ball, where energy and effort are so big to defenses playing well. With that said, I think we could really see Miami's defense struggle to get stops in this game. Not only are the Dolphins playing on the road on a short week, they are coming off that massive upset win against the Bills. You also can't be fooled about Miami's defense holding the Bills to just 19 points. Buffalo beat themselves in that game. The Bills had 497 yards of total offense in that game. The week before we saw Miami's defense give up 38 points and 473 yards to the Ravens. I have a hard time believing that the Dolphins are going to be able to slow down Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense, which should keep getting better as Burrow gets more comfortable after missing all that time in the offseason. At the same time, I think the Bengals will have a tough time slowing down this Miami offense. The Dolphins have two of the most electric wide outs in the game in Waddle and Hill, who can put points on the board in a blink of an eye. Sure the Bengals defense has looked good to this point, but they have played an awful Steelers offense, a Cowboys offense without Dak and the Jets. Give me the OVER 47! |
|||||||
09-26-22 | Cowboys +115 v. Giants | 23-16 | Win | 115 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Dallas Cowboys +115 I'm betting the Cowboys on the money line at +115. I just think it's a good spot to sell high on the Giants, who have surprised some people with their 2-0 start. Thing is, they are lucky to be 2-0. They had no business winning on the road at Tennessee in Week 1. They were shutout in the 1st half of that game and scored a TD with just over a minute to play to win 21-20. They only had 265 total yards in their 19-16 win over the Panthers. They were +2 in the turnover department and were tied 16-16 with less than 5 minutes to play. Given what we have seen out of the Titans and Panthers, I'm not sure how you think this is sustainable for New York. The offense isn't any good and while the defense has played well, they have faced two bad offensive teams. Dallas is without Dak and will have Cooper Rush at quarterback. You could argue given what we have seen that the Cowboys are just as bad an offense right now as the Panthers and Titans. I don't think it's that bad. They have played two really good defensive teams. Arguably the best defense based off the first 3 games in the Bucs. The Bengals held the Jets to 12 yesterday and while they gave up 23 to Steelers in Week 1, they were +5 in turnovers (Pittsburgh had just 267 total yards and 13 first downs). There's definitely some talented players at the skill position for Dallas and I saw enough out or Rush in that win over the Bengals to make me think he can keep this ship afloat until Prescott returns. Give me the Cowboys +115! |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Packers +1 v. Bucs | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
8* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Green Bay Packers +1 I'm betting the Packers as a 1-point dog against the Bucs in Week 3. I just think given the current state of the Tampa Bay offense, there's too much value here with Green Bay at basically a pick'em. Who knows what Tom Brady is going to have to work with at wide receiver in this game. We know for sure he won't have Mike Evans, who is suspended for this game. Their next 5 WR's on the depth chart are Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller. All 5 of them are questionable. They have also ready lost starting center Ryan Jensen to a season-ending injury from a unit that was down after losing two starters from last year in Cappa and Marpet. Starting left tackle Donovan Smith is questionable and his backup Josh Wells is on IR. The offense wasn't sharp in their opener against the Cowboys. They had just 12 points in that game with less than 5 minutes to play. They scored just 20 against the Saints last week. That game was 3-3 going into the 4th and 7 of their 20 came on a 68-yard pick-six. Packers offense wasn't very good in Week 1, but the defense played pretty well against a good Vikings offense. Green Bay then held the Bears to just 228 and 11 first downs in Week 2. As good as Brady is, it's going to be really hard for TB to keep their offense on the field and finish off drives with TDs. I also think there's some value still with Green Bay due to their ugly showing in Week 1 against the Vikings. It's just what this team does. They did it last year. They lost 38-3 to the Saints and then won 7 in a row. Rodgers and the offense looked much better in Week 2 and will only get better. He is facing a top tier Tampa Bay defense, but he's one of the few QBs where it just doesn't matter how good the defense is, he's going to get his. Give me the Packers +1! |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Falcons v. Seahawks OVER 42 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Falcons/Seahawks OVER 42 I'm going to take the OVER 42 in Sunday's game between the Falcons and Seahawks. I came into the season with very low expectations for Seattle's defense. So far it's worse than I thought. Them holding the Broncos to just 16 points in their upset win in Week 1 was a complete fluke. Denver racked up 433 total yards and averaged 6.8 yards/play with 20 1st downs and a 53% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The Broncos had back-to-back drives to start the 2nd half where they fumbled the ball on the Seahawks 1-yard line. They also had at least 30 yards on every possession, punting just once. Then in their game against the 49ers they gave up 373 yards and 25 first downs, allowing San Francisco to convert 6 of 15 first downs. Keep in mind they also had no real incentive to score in the 2nd half with a big lead and this is already a team that wants to take the air out of the ball with the run game. I don't see them slowing down the Falcons in this game. Atlanta may be 0-2, but I've really liked what I've seen out of this team offensively. Marcus Mariota looks like he belongs on the field. The Falcons come into this game averaging 26.5 ppg, 146 rushing yards/game and 338 yards/game having played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Saints and Rams. The other key for me is I think the Seattle offense is better than the perception right now. They too have played their first two games against two of the top defensive teams. Say what you want about Russell Wilson and the Denver offense, the Broncos defense looks like the real deal and I would put San Francisco up their with the Bills and Chargers for the best defense in the league. I think Geno Smith and that offense will be able to generate some offense. They got no choice here but to try and go score for score with the other team and the Falcons are a definitely a defense they can have success against. Atlanta is giving up 29.0 ppg and 6.3 yards/play vs teams who on average are scoring 19.5 ppg and averaging 5.4 yards/play. Just looks at what they gave up to the Saints and Rams and how those two teams looked offensively in their other game. I'm really shocked this total is as low as it is, as I think this will easily get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 42! |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
10* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 I love the Jaguars as a 7.5-point road dog against the Chargers. If 7 is all your books is offering, I think it's worth paying a little more to get it to 7.5. I just feel like Los Angeles is getting way too much respect from the books in this game. There's not even a guarantee that Justin Herbert is going to play. I know he finished the game against KC, but it was pretty obvious the amount of pain he was in. I don't think even the extra few days they got after playing Thursday is near enough for him to be close to 100% in this game. If he guts it out, you got to think the game plan will be skewed more to the run than it normally is. There's also no guarantee he finishes the game. He takes one good shot to that rib area and he's going to be right back where he started. I really think it's 50/50 if he even plays and it's a massive downgrade from him to backup Chase Daniel. You also got to look at the status of the Chargers offensive line. Right tackle Trey Pipkins was limited in Wednesday's practice and center Corey Linsley didn't practice. We saw this offensive line really regress in that game against KC. Chiefs were getting all kinds of pressure in the 2nd half. This unit will be up against an underrated Jags defensive line that has a top tier pass rusher in Josh Allen. I also think you got to look at what have seen from Jacksonville in their first two games. They should be 2-0. They blew a 22-14 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in a 22-28 loss to Washington in Week 1 and embarrassed the Colts 24-0 last week. All anyone wants to talk about is how bad Indy is after that loss. No one wants to give this team any credit. I like teams who are playing well and go into a game feeling like they are being disrespected. I not only think they can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a legit shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +7.5! |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +3 | 37-26 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 40 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New England Patriots +3 I will gladly take the 3-points with the Patriots as a home dog against the Ravens. Any time you got a Bill Belichick coached team getting points, you really don't have to do any more research. You just bet New England. The Patriots are 14-5 ATS as a home dog since Belichick took over. It's also worth noting that the Pats had to play their first two games on the road, which probably has them undervalued given their home field edge. It's definitely been a profitable spot long term, as the Pats are 30-17 (64%) ATS under Belichick after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore is also a team that I think is getting too much respect in this spot. Most will just chalk it up as a fluke that the Ravens blew that 35-14 lead in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins last week. Not me. I think Baltimore isn't quite as good defensively as what we expected them to be. You also have a banged up Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow. He says he's going to play, but it's bothering him enough he wasn't throwing at all in practice. You got to wonder if he will be as willing to run the ball with that banged up elbow. On top of that, Belichick is going to do everything he can to keep him from making plays with his feet. He's going to make Jackson beat him with his arm. I don't know that he can against this Patriots defense. No one is going to praise them for how the defense looked in last week's win over the Steelers, but I don't think they are getting enough credit for what their defense did against the Dolphins in Week 1. They held Miami to just 20 points on 307 yards. Dolphins had 42 points and 547 yards against the Ravens. Give me the Patriots +3! |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52 | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Dolphins OVER 52 I really like the OVER 52 in Sunday's big showdown between AFC East rivals Buffalo and Miami. I know these are two division rivals and division games have a tendency to be lower scoring. I don't care. I just think the Bills are so good offensively that there's too much value at this number to not play the OVER. There's just no stopping this Buffalo offense with the way they are currently constructed and the level at which Josh Allen is playing the quarterback position. They had 31 points in their opener against the Rams and turned the ball over 4 times. They didn't punt once in the entire game against LA and not once in the 1st half against the Titans. Miami just gave up 473 yards and 38 points to the Ravens last week, letting Lamar Jackson throw for 318 yards and 3 scores on 21 of 29 passing. The big key here is I think Miami has the offensive fire-power, especially in the passing game, to go score for score with Buffalo. Even more so with the injuries that the Bills are dealing with both on the defensive line and in their secondary. Three of their top 4 defensive tackles are questionable. They are down two starting corners Tre-Davious White and Dane Jackson and both safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are not 100%. I think if we get a mere 3 TDs from Miami, this thing is going to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 52! |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Raiders -2 v. Titans | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 35 m | Show | |
8* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Oakland Raiders -2 Even after all the pain the Raiders caused me last Sunday when they somehow managed to fail to cover as a 5.5-point favorite after leading 23-7 going into the 4th quarter, I'm backing them again this week. I'll lay the 2-points with Las Vegas on the road against the Titans. I know both teams are 0-2 and are going to feel like this is a must-win. I just don't think Tennessee is any good. The Raiders in my eyes are by far the better team. My money is on them to find a way to avoid the 0-3 start. Tennessee is so far removed from the team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. Not that they were anything close to the best team in that conference in 2021. They traded away their only real threat in the passing game in A.J. Brown and didn't improve the defense. Derrick Henry hasn't even remotely resembled the back that from two years ago. I also think Ryan Tannehill is regressing with having to shoulder more of the load. They are just not a good football team. They lost a game they shouldn't have in Week 1 to a average at best Jets team and didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as Buffalo. I don't see the Titans defense being able to get off the field and I think the Raiders front 7 is good enough to not allow Henry to get going and make it really hard on Tennessee to move the ball. Give me the Raiders -2! |
|||||||
09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts OVER 50 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 37 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Chiefs/Colts OVER 50 I love the OVER 50 in Sunday's Week 3 NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Colts. I'm actually shocked this number is as low as it is. I know it was the defense that stepped up and really carried KC to a victory last week in their big game against the Chargers, but there might not be a better top to bottom defensive unit in the NFL than what LA has on the field. Mahomes was still able to complete 24 of 35 attempts for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Good but not great numbers. I expect the offense to resemble more of what we saw in their 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. A game in which they had 488 total yard with Mahomes throwing for 360 and 5 scores. Especially after watching how poorly the Colts looked in last week's 24-0 loss to the Jaguars. They let Trevor Lawrence complete 25 of 30 attempts. They are going to have no answer for this Chiefs offense. The key here is I do think the Colts will be able to at least score enough here to make it somewhat competitive. Getting shutout by the Jags is bad, but the Colts were very thin in that game at receiver. They are getting guys back at that spot and will be facing a Chiefs defense that could be a little flat after that huge game against the Charger and Tom Brady and the Bucs looming next week. KC also lost one of their better defensive players in linebacker Willie Gay to a 4-game suspension. I'm seeing like a 38-28 type of game here with the potential for even more scoring. Give me the OVER 50! |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football BEST BET: Cleveland Browns -4.5 I like the Browns to cover the 4.5 at home against the Steelers. Historically betting against Tomlin and the Steelers as a division dog has not treated you well. However, a lot of that was with a future HOF quarterback under center. With Mitch Trubisky under center and no TJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, I think this has to be a lot more lopsided than people think. Yes, the Steelers upset the Bengals in Week 1 as a 7-point dog, but let's not forget they needed the Bengals to miss an extra point for that game to even get to OT. Not to mention they were outgained 432 to 267 in that game. The books were so unimpressed by that win they made the Steelers a home dog last week against a Patriots team that lost 7-20 at Miami. Pittsburgh was able to keep it close in a 14-17 loss, but they never had a lead and got outgained 376 to 243. As for the Browns, I think it's the perfect spot to jump on Cleveland. All anyone is talking about with the Browns is their unfathomable 30-31 loss to the Jets last week, where the Browns went up 30-17 with 1:55 left. Chubb could have went down at the 1 and Cleveland could have just ran out the clock. They then miss the extra points and two plays in the Jets drive they gave up 66-yard TD. NY then recovers an onside kick and goes 9 plays and 53 yards to win the game in regulation. Had Chubb went down and the Browns ran out the clock, the Jets would have finished the game with just 274 total yards and been outgained 405 to 274. Instead it ended up Cleveland only outgained NY 405 to 402! This comes after the Browns took a 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter of their Week 1 matchup against Carolina and needed a 58-yard field goal as time expired to win 26-24. Some might argue losing that way sets up the Browns for a letdown, but I don't think that's the case in Week 2. I think it will have them extremely pissed off and ready to take out that frustration on Pittsburgh. You can be assured their will be no taking their foot off the gas the rest of the season. Pittsburgh's defense just isn't the same without Watt and I could see them having a hard time slowing down the Browns ground game. On the flip side, Cleveland's only given 147 rushing yards over their first two games. I just don't see the Steelers offense being able to do enough to keep this close. Give me the Browns -4.5! |
|||||||
09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 50 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Vikings/Eagles OVER 50 I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. I think these are two of the better offensive teams in the league. Both looked great in Week 1. Philadelphia put up 38 in Week 1 on the road against a much improved Lions team and didn't score a point in the 4th quarter after taking their foot off the gas up 38-21. Eagles had 216 rushing yards and 243 thru the air. I know the Vikings defense looked good in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but a lot of that had to do with Green Bay not playing any of their guys in the preseason. As for the Vikings offense, they scored 23 points, had 395 total yards and averaged 6.5 yards/play against a top tier Packers defense. Minnesota figures to be a Top 10, maybe Top 5, offense this season under new head coach Kevin O'Connell. Eagles defense gave up 35 points and 386 total yards to an average Lions offense. Minnesota should be able to do as they please in this one. Give me the OVER 50! |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Cardinals v. Raiders -5.5 | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 I'm going to take the Raiders as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals on Sunday. I know you don't want to overreact to what you saw in Week 1, but I can't help myself here laying less than a touchdown with the Raiders. The biggest thing for me is I came into this season way down on the Cardinals, especially early in the year with DeAndre Hopkins serving his suspension. Keep in mind they also lost Christian Kirk in free agency, who led them last year in receiving with 77 catches for 982 yards and 5 scores. One of the guys they were hoping to fill the void was Rondale Moore and he's doubtful. Tight end Zach Ertz is also questionable with a calf injury. That's just the offense. The defense lost one of their stud pass rushers in Chandler Jones and failed to address their biggest need up front on the defensive line. J.J. Watt didn't play in the opener and while he could be back isn't enough to sure up that side of the ball. I just have a hard time seeing this team as it's currently constructed being able to go on the road and compete with a Raiders team that is much better than they showed in Week 1 against the Chargers. Everyone acts like Las Vegas was dominated in their 19-24 loss to LA, but I saw it differently. I thought it was actually impressive that the Raiders had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter given Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. The offensive line clearly is a weakness for Las Vegas and was exposed against maybe the pass rushing duo in the NFL in the Chargers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Arizona just doesn't have the talent in their front 7 to expose the Raiders weakness on the o-line and in turn I look for Carr and the Raiders offense to have a similar type of showing as we saw last week with Mahomes and Chiefs doing whatever they wanted on the offensive side of the ball. I'll take my chances with the Raiders defense doing enough for Las Vegas to get at least 6 points of separation when this is all said and done. Give me the Raiders -5.5! |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Falcons +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Atlanta Falcons +10.5 I love the value with the Falcons as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 2. Even though Atlanta came up short in Week 1, losing 26-27 at home to the Saints, I came away from that game very impressed with what I saw from the Falcons. They outgained New Orleans 416 to 385 with over 200 yards rushing and passing. They had 26 first downs to the Saints 18. They also led 26-10 with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The biggest thing that held Atlanta back in that game was the struggles in the red zone. Falcons kicked four field goals. They also fumbled the ball inside the red zone. I don't think this offense gets enough credit for how well they moved the ball against what many expected to be a very good New Orleans defense. A lot of that is also a credit of new starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was 20 of 33 for 215 yards (0 picks) and had 72 rushing yards, including a 2-yd TD run. As for the Rams, they lost their home opener in the big season opening matchup against the Bills last Thursday. I get that Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league, but no one expected LA to be that outclassed. Buffalo won the game 31-10 with 4 turnovers. They outgained the Rams 413 to 243. Los Angeles showed zero ability to run the football and Matthew Stafford just didn't look himself. Everyone just expected the Rams to be great again this year after winning it all, but I'm not so sure that's going to be the case. The offensive line is a problem and the defense has a couple of great players surrounded by a bunch of mediocre guys. I just think the Rams are being way overpriced in this game and it's no surprise to me. The defending Super Bowl champs are almost always overvalued the following year and there's massive public perception going into this game that there's no way LA can start 0-2. I'm not about to say Atlanta will win, but I definitely think this thing will be decided by 1 score. Give me the Falcons +10.5! |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets +7 I'll take my chances with the Jets cashing in as a 7-point road dog against the Browns in Week 2. Even though we lost with the Panthers in Week 1 against Cleveland, I still think this Browns team is getting a little too much love with Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback. The Panthers did nothing but shoot themselves in the foot for the majority of that game. Even after trailing by 14 early and by double-digits going into the 4th, Carolina had a 24-23 lead with 1:13 left to play. If not for Cade York's 58-yard game winning field goal, I think the perception would be a lot different on Cleveland going into Week 2. Even with rushing for 217 yards and 5.6 yards/carry, Cleveland finished the game averaging just 4.8 yards/play. That really speaks to how much the offense is playing behind the 8-ball with Brissett. As for the Jets, I didn't feel they played as poorly as it appeared in Week 1. The Jets lost 24-9 to Baltimore, but they actually outgained the Ravens 380 to 274. Joe Flacco wasn't great, but did manage to thro for 309 yards. No one is giving the Jets defense the love it deserves after holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in check. NY was very stingy versus the run, giving up just 63 yards on 21 attempts. Jackson, only had 17 rushing yards on 6 attempts. That right there is probably the biggest reason I like New York in this game. I think the Browns are extremely one-dimensional with their run game until Watson gets back from suspension. If the Jets run defense can keep the Browns from racking up 1st downs on the ground, they not only are going to keep this within 7 but will be right there with a chance to win outright. Give me the Jets +7! |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Washington Commanders v. Lions OVER 47.5 | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 74 h 7 m | Show | |
8* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Commanders/Lions OVER 47.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's Week 2 matchup between the Lions and Commanders. I'm actually a little shocked this total isn't in the 50s after what we saw in Week 1. Both offenses really performed well last Sunday. Washington put up 28 points and 390 yards against the Jaguars. If not for 3 turnovers by the Commanders, they easily finish with over 30 points and 400 yards of offense. Detroit had 35 points and 386 yards of offense in a 35-38 loss to the Eagles. I know the Lions scored 3 of their 5 touchdowns after falling behind 14-31 in the 2nd half, but that had 38 combined points at the half and 59 after 3 quarters. I really think the way this Detroit team is built, they are going to find themselves in a lot of high scoring games. I also think the Commanders defense isn't very good, at least until Chase Young returns from his knee injury. They gave up 383 total yards and 6.2 yards/play to the Jaguars in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence, who might have the worst receiving corps in the NFL threw for 275 and Jacksonville averaged 6.8 yards/carry on the ground. This to me has shootout written all over it. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
|||||||
09-18-22 | Panthers v. Giants OVER 43 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 6 m | Show |
10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Panthers/Giants OVER 43 I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 43 in Sunday's matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I came into this season really excited about the potential of New York's offense, as I expect some pretty significant improvements now that Brian Daboll as their head coach. They also added Mike Kafa as their OC, who comes over after serving as an assistant under Andy Reid in Kansas City. It was why I really like the OVER 43.5 in the Giants Week 1 game against Tennessee. Even with the Giants getting shutout in the 1st half of that game, we would have cashed the OVER had the Titans kicker hit a 47-yarder at the end of regulation. Considering that the Giants averaged 6.8 yards/play (3rd best mark of any team in Week 1 behind on the Chiefs and Bills) and the Titans averaged 6.0 yards/play (9th best), it's hard to believe we didn't get the OVER in that game. With that said, I'm not letting that outcome keep me from backing the OVER with the Giants in Week 2, as we see a mere total of 43. Much like the Giants in Week 1, Carolina's offense was basically a no show for the 1st half before coming alive in the 2nd half. Panthers had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter and finished with 24. I know Mayfield didn't play great, but that's a pretty good Browns defense. He should have a much easier time against this Giants defense. I also would expect a little more out of Christian McCaffrey. As for the Panthers defense, I think they are solid on that side of the ball, but we did see them give up 26 points to the Browns who don't offer much of a threat in the passing game with Brissett at quarterback. Daniel Jones will be a much tougher challenge to stop and I could see the Panthers having a difficult time containing Saquon Barkley, which is going to only make it easier on Jones with the defense forced to play the run. Give me the OVER 43! |
|||||||
09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas City Chiefs -4 I got no problem laying the 4-points with the Chiefs at home on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 2. Kansas City to me was the most impressive team in Week 1. They went on the road and annihilated Kyler Murray and the Cardinals 44-21. It wasn't even that close, as KC led 37-7 going into the 4th quarter. Chiefs outgained Arizona 488 to 282. They averaged 7.4 yards/play while giving up just 4.5 yards/play. Patrick Mahomes was sensational with 360 yards and 5 TDs. Keep in mind this is a Chiefs offense a ton of people questioned being able to produce after trading away their No. 1 WR in Tyreek Hill. For whatever reason Mahomes just doesn't get the praise he deserves. He's the best at the position right now and has more weapons to work with than he ever has. What also gets lost in that win is how good the defense played, holding Murray and the Cardinals under 300 total yards. That's a defense that has gotten a lot of young talented guys sprinkled at all 3 levels. I see them being much improved and I really think they are going to feed off the home crowd at Arrowhead. Chargers were the pick a lot of people had to dethrone KC in the AFC West. The Chiefs are well aware of that and I think they will be out to send a message. LA is getting a lot of praise for their Week 1 win over the Raiders, but they only outgained LV 355 to 320 and had 5.5 yards/play to the Raiders 5.7 yards/play. Derek Carr doesn't throw 3 picks and the Raiders probably win that game. Looking like LA will be without top wide out Keenan Allen and also one of their top corners in KC Jackson. Also much tougher on the road in these Thursday games playing on just 3 days of rest. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
|||||||
09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +7 Not a huge bet for me, but I'll throw some cash on the Seahawks catching a touchdown at home against the Broncos. I'm not as high on Denver as some others. Russell Wilson is without a doubt an upgrade at quarterback. I just don't think it's a lock he comes in and this offense just takes off. Much like his days in Seattle, Wilson will be taking snaps behind another poor offensive line. I also don't think it's close in terms of the talent he has in the passing game. Sutton and Jeudy have some promise, but they aren't on the same level as Metcalf and Lockett. I also worry about that offensive line in a hostile road environment. Not only is MNF, but this game means more given the history with Wilson. Seattle isn't getting any love coming into this season. That should have them coming out in this one with a huge chip on their shoulder. Geno Smith is far from elite, but he's not horrible and this should be one of the better rushing teams in the league. Denver's run defense was a weakness last year and I don't see it being all that improved. Give me the Seahawks +7! |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Giants v. Titans OVER 43.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 54 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Giants/Titans OVER 43.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Sunday's NFL matchup between the Giants and Titans. I was shocked to see this total this low. I'm expecting major improvements from the Giants offense this year after they were one of the worst in the league last year. It's not so much the players the Giants added offensively, but the guy calling the shots. I'm a big Brian Daboll fan and really believe he's the guy that transformed Josh Allen into the quarterback he is now. I'm not saying he's going to take Daniel Jones to that level, but he's going to be better. The offense is going to be more pass happy than it's been and as a result will score a lot more than the 15.2 ppg they averaged last year. Defensively New York was 25th against the run and the entire defense to me is a big question mark going into this season. I just don't know that the talent is there and I think it's asking a lot for them to have to try to contain what I think is going to be a hungry and motivated Derrick Henry. When Henry has it going, it opens up the entire offense for Tennessee. I got both teams scoring well into the 20s and for these two to push the 50-point mark. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Los Angeles Chargers -3 I love the Chargers as a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders. I think there's a little too much hype coming into this season with Las Vegas. Everyone focuses on the big additions they made, most notably adding wide out Davante Adams, but it's not like the Raiders didn't have a great passing attack last year. They were 6th in the NFL in passing. The problem was they couldn't run the ball and I got major concerns for them up front on the offensive line. Them wanting to throw the football, plays right into the strength of the Chargers defense. LA was No. 12 vs the pass compared to No. 30 vs the run in 2021. I really think the secondary for the Chargers is one of the best in the league. I think they will be better against the runs with the guys they added up front in their 3-4 and the pass rush figures to also get a boost with Khalil Mack now lining up opposite of Joey Bosa. On the flip side of the ball, I think LA is going to torment defenses. Justin Herbert is only going to keep getting better, which is scary when you consider he's already thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 TDs in 32 games. I have a lot more confidence in him making big plays against the Raiders dynamic pass rush duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones. A lot of that has to do with the lack of talent LV has around them. I also have concerns with how they will transition into their 3-4 look after using the 4-3 for years. Either way, only having to lay 3 at home with LA is too good to pass up. Give me the Chargers -3! |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Ravens -6.5 v. Jets | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 I got no problem laying the 6.5 on the road with Baltimore in Week 1, as they will fly to New York to take on the Jets. I know people aren't exactly dogging on the Ravens coming into this season, but I don't think they are getting near the respect they deserve. People forget about all the injuries they had to overcome last year. They finished just 8-9 and had 6 losses decided by fewer than a touchdown, including 5 by 3 or fewer. Lamar Jackson is special and I look for him to bounce back in a big way after a disappointing season last year. On the defense, I expect the Ravens to be one of the top units in the league. They were No. 1 last year against the run, but were dead last against the pass. They won't be last against the pass again. They get back stud corner Marcus Peters after he missed all of last year, added in a really good safety in Marcus Williams and used a 1st round pick on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. You also have a Jets team that I think is a year away from competing. Yes, New York had a great draft this offseason, but expecting all those guys to come in and contribute at the level needed right away is asking a lot. They are also starting the season without Zach Wilson at quarterback and instead will be sending the old and washed up Joe Flacco. I don't see that offense being able to much of anything against this Ravens defense. Give me Baltimore -6.5! |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers -1 | 26-24 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers -1 I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a slim -1 home favorite against the Browns. I don't think Carolina is getting near the respect they deserve to start the season. They are one of my favorite sleeper teams coming into 2022. I not only think they will be in the playoff picture, but I give them an outside shot of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay still has Tom Brady, but he's one year older and playing behind a much worse offensive line. The Saints got a ton of talent, but no longer have Sean Payton to steer that offense. The Falcons are in full on rebuild mode. Say what you want about Baker Mayfield, he's a massive upgrade at the quarterback position for Carolina. Last year the Panthers had to make do with either Sam Darnold, Cam Newton or PJ Walker under center. Combined those 3 had a horrific 14 to 21 TD to INT ratio. Mayfield, who everyone was ragging on last year had a 17-13 TD-INT ratio and did that playing at less than 100%. A lot of people forget how good Mayfield was when he was healthy in 2020, throwing for over 3,500 yards with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio. Not only do they get an upgrade at quarterback, but at least to start the season they have a healthy Christian McCaffrey at running back. Injuries have shortened his last two seasons, but in 2019 he played 16 games and rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns, while also catching 116 passes for 1,005 yards and 4 scores. They get back their top two WRs in DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, while also adding in one of Mayfields old teammates in Rashad Higgins and trading for Laviska Shenault, who has 121 catches for 1,219 yards in two seasons playing for a bad Jaguars team. Not to mention they completely revamped their offensive line and should be greatly improved up front. I also don't think people realize how good this Panthers defense was last year. While they ranked a mere 21st in scoring defense, giving up 23.8 ppg, they were No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 305.9 ypg. They had the No. 4 ranked pass defense, despite losing stud rookie 1st round corner Jaycee Horn to an injury after just 3 games. As for the Browns, they got some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, but until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, they are going to be limited offensively with Jacoby Brissett. I really think they are going to be a little too one dimensional with the run game and really struggle to win games early on in the year. Give me the Panthers -1! |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 I really like the Steelers as a 6.5-point dog against the Bengals in Week 1. The Bengals shocked everyone last year not only getting to the playoffs but making it all the way to the Super Bowl. I just feel it has them way overvalued coming into the 2022 season. At the same time, I think the Steelers are one of the more underrated teams in the league to start the year. Losing a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger isn't as big a deal as some might think. Roethlisberger's skills and mobility really declined over the last couple of seasons. I might look back at this a couple weeks from now and wonder what I was thinking, but I got high expectations for Mitchell Trubisky as the new starter. He'll take over an offense that returns one of the best young backs in the NFL in Najee Harris, who rushed for 1,200 yards and 7 scores and had 74 catches for 467 yards as a rookie. Doing so behind a bad offensive line. Pittsburgh invested this offseason in improving that offensive line, which I think goes greatly unnoticed. They also get back their top 3 pass catchers in wide outs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, as well as tight end Pat Freiermuth. I also really liked what I saw out of rookie wide out George Pickens in preseason and expect him to make an immediate impact. The defense should be good. Last year they struggled against the run, but that was due to them losing two guys up front. Nose tackle Tyson Alualu only played in 2 games and defensive end Stephon Tuitt didn't play at all after the death of brother. They improve against the run and this unit has a chance to be elite. They were No. 9 against the pass last year and led the league with 55 sacks. I'm not about to sit here and say the Bengals Super Bowl run was a fluke and they are going to take this major step back. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, this team will be in the playoff mix. With that said, it's a lot different going into a season with a chip on shoulder than it is coming in with a target on your back. I think this line at the most should be a field goal, giving us way too much value to pass up with Pittsburgh. Give me the Steelers +6.5! |
|||||||
09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams OVER 52 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 45 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Bills/Rams OVER 52 My money is on the OVER 52 in Thursday's highly anticipated season opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. I don't see these two teams have any problem eclipsing this number. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if this thing went well into the 60s. These were two of the best offenses in the league last year. The Rams finished 9th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 ypg) and T-7th in scoring (27.1 ppg). Buffalo has the No. 5 ranked total offense (381.9 ypg) and the No. 3 ranked scoring offense (28.4 ppg). I don't see any letdown coming from Josh Allen and the Bills offense in 2022. I also love the matchup for Buffalo in this one. The Bills are a pass-first offense and the Rams are much better suited at stopping the run. LA was 22nd in the league last year defending the pass (241.7 ypg). The big concern some might have is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow and LA facing what many believe to be a strong Bills defense. I personally think the injury is being a bit overblown. If it was serious he wouldn't be out there in Week 1. I also think Buffalo's defense comes in way overrated. When you look at who who they played and who was on the field when they played their opponents, the Bills caught a lot of breaks. They are also going to be starting the season without Tre-Davious White. Look for new Rams wide out Allen Robinson to play a big role, as I feel he was one of the more underrated signings in the entire offseason. Give me the OVER 52! |
|||||||
02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Super Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -4) I love the Rams at -4 in the Super Bowl. It's been a great ride for the Bengals to get to this point, but I believe they have met their match in this one. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan and think he's going to be a top tier guy for years to come, but I don't think he's going to play well in this game. Two big reasons for that. The biggest being the guys the Rams have up front on the defensive line. I think the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and company are going to have a field day in this game. The other big thing is the Rams having Jalen Ramsey to shadow Jamar Chase. I get the Bengals have some other guys, but I think without Chase being a huge factor, the Bengals are going to find it really hard to score. On the flip side of this, I think the Rams are going to be able to run the football and really open up the playbook against this Cincinnati defense. Give me Los Angeles -4! |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC Champ Game MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -7) I'll gladly take my chances with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Bengals. I know Cincinnati beat KC at home in Week 17, but they were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Chiefs scored just 3-points in the 2nd Half of that game. KC also had a horrible game-plan defensively going into that game, as they let Chase run wild on their secondary. They won't make that mistake again and this Chiefs defense is much better at home than on the road. As good as Burrow is, he's not Josh Allen, who is a much bigger threat to run. You also got Mahomes on the other side, who has been incredible in the postseason. I also think the experience with KC in this big game is a bigger advantage than people think. Give me the Chiefs -7! |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Bills/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -1) I will gladly take my chances here with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at basically a pick'em at home against the Bills in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round showdown. Everyone has fallen in love with Josh Allen and the Bills after what they did to the Pats last week. Allen basically threw the equivalent of a perfect game in baseball. How many guys do you see throw perfect games in back-to-back games. I think it's going to be a lot tougher for Allen and company on the road against a much improved Chiefs defense. I know the Bills won at KC earlier this season, but that was back in Week 5. At that point the Chiefs were on pace to be one of the worst defensive teams in NFL history and the offense was struggling to do anything. Mahomes and the Chiefs have figured things out and this is the time of year where they play their best football. Crazy to think, but KC is going to have the chip on their shoulder with all this talk about Buffalo. Give me the Chiefs -1! |
|||||||
01-22-22 | 49ers +6 v. Packers | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - 49ers/Packers PLAYOFFS PLAY OF THE WEEK (49ers +6) I love the value with the 49ers as a 6-point dog against the Packers. This just feels like the same story that we have seen with Green Bay posting this great regular-season record after feasting on a horrible division and sneaking out several close wins. I just don't know that I believe the Packers are the best team in the NFC. I certainly don't think they should be laying close to a touchdown against a 49ers team that seems to have really turned a corner in the 2nd half of this season. The San Fran defense looks a lot like the unit that carried them to the Super Bowl two years ago. The key here is Garoppolo and can/will he take care of the football. I think he will, as I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball on this Green Bay defense. It's also not like he can't have a turnover. He just can't have multiple big mistakes. If he takes care of the ball, I think the 49ers can win this game. Give me San Francisco +6! |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47.5 | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bengals/Titans VEGAS INSIDER (Over 47.5) I think we are going to see plenty of offensive fire-works in Saturday's AFC Divisional Round matchup between the Bengals and Titans. I just don't think either of these defenses are going to be able to slow down the other side. I think Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense is peaking at the right time. They finished up the regular-season scoring 41 against Baltimore and 34 against KC before resting their starters in Week 18 against the Browns. They put up a respectable 26 last week against the Raiders in the Wild Card round, but that was about as bad an outcome they could have had. Cincinnati had to settle for 4 FGs and 3 of those were chip shots (35 yds or less). Titans defense put up some impressive numbers down the stretch, but a lot of that is who they played. Tennessee had about as easy a schedule as you could imagine in the 2nd half. Big reason why they were able to secure the No. 1 seed. On the flip side, you got Derrick Henry back for the Titans offense and he's up against a soft Bengals run defense. I do have some concerns about how effective Henry will be after the long break and coming off a pretty serious injury, but they don't call him the King for nothing.This is also not an elite Cincinnati defense. Titans can move the ball thru the air if they have to. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Cards/Rams Wild Card MAX Unit Top Play (Rams -3.5) I just can't help myself but to lay the 3.5-points with the Rams against the Cardinals. I'm still trying to figure out how LA blew that big lead against the 49ers in Week 18, but it's not something I'm going to keep me from backing them here. I just don't know how you can trust the Cardinals in the postseason. Arizona was never as good as their great start to the season and have shown nothing to make you think they are going to turn this thing around. They went just 1-4 to close out the season with a division title on the line. The Rams are just too good defensively and Arizona is missing too many pieces on offense, most notably wide out DeAndre Hopkins. Just too much pressure on Kyler Murray without Hopkins to bail him out. Give me the Rams -3.5! |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 46.5 | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Eagles/Bucs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 46.5) I really like the UNDER at 46.5 for Sunday's Wild Card opener between the Buccaneers and the Eagles. I think both teams could have a real tough time moving the football. Tampa Bay is not the offense it was to start the year. The losses of Brown and Godwin are huge and for as much hate AB gets, there's no denying the impact he had when he was on the field. I also think not having Fournette is a much bigger deal than people realize. This is a game they really could have used him. With winds blowing at more than 20 mph straight down the field, the team going into the wind is really going to have to rely on running the ball. While running the football is what this Eagles offense is built around, this Buccaneers front when they are locked in, are arguably the toughest front in the league to run the football against. I just don't see where the offense is going to come from to get in the upper 40s. Give me the UNDER 46.5! |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER (Under 48.5) These two teams combined for just 45 points in their meeting during the regular season and they were lucky to get to that number. It was a 13-6 game going into the 4th quarter and 16-13 with just over 5 minutes to play. Neither team managed to eclipse 300 yards of total offense. Bengals had just 288 and the Raiders had 278. While both of these teams have quarterbacks who can throw the ball and some guys who can go get it, the problem is both of these offensive lines aren't very good. The defensive lines for both of these teams should dominate this game. Mother Nature also figures to play a role in keeping it a little lower scoring with temps expected to be below freezing and a slight cross wind. Give me the UNDER 48.5! |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -109 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR (Chargers -3) I will gladly lay the 3-points with the Chargers as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. I know the playoffs don't start until next week, but this is essentially a playoff game with what's at stake. The winner will secure a Wild Card spot, while the loser's season will come to an end. I just don't view these two teams as equals. Even given the spot they are in, where they have to win to make the postseason, I view this Chargers team as one of the better teams in the AFC. They have 3 road wins on their resume vs playoff teams in the Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals. They also have a couple of 3-point losses to the Patriots and Cowboys, as well as an OT loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders don't have near the resume and if we are being honest, the only reason they are even in this spot is injuries and Covid. In their last 3 games they have beat a decimated Browns team 17-15 with Cleveland starting Nick Mullens at quarterback. They played the Broncos minus Teddy Bridgewater and won 17-13 and last week Carson Wentz was in Covid protocol all week before getting cleared to play. Now they have to face one of the top QBs in the game in Justin Herbert and the top tier of the league have really had their way with this Raiders defense. While Herbert only threw for 222 yards in the fist meeting between these two teams, he was an efficient 25 of 38 with 3 TDs. LA was also doing as they pleased on the ground with 168 rushing yards. The Raiders could only manage 213 total yards in that first game against the Chargers and that was back when they had Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, who had 110 of the 196 yards Derek Carr threw for in that game. I just don't think Las Vegas has the fire-power offensively to keep pace in this game. LA has scored at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Raiders are only averaging 16.0 ppg in their last 5, eclipsing 20 just once during this stretch. Give me the Chargers -3! |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Saints -4 v. Falcons | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -4) I will gladly take my chances with the Saints as a mere 4-point road favorite against the Falcons. New Orleans needs to win and get some help to make the playoffs, but it's definitely a possibility. The Saints need the 49ers to lose at the Rams and LA needs to win that game to lock up the NFC West and No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Falcons aren't a very good team and in a really bad spot, having just watched their playoff hopes come to an end with last week's loss at Buffalo. I just don't see Atlanta being all that interested in this game and I also think that Falcons offense is in for a long day against a Saints defense that is really playing well down the stretch. Give me New Orleans -4! |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Chiefs -11 v. Broncos | 28-24 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Chiefs/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -11) I'm laying the big number with the Chiefs on the road against the Broncos. I get this is a division game and these two fanbases can't stand each other, but KC is the only team with something to play for, they are clearly the better team and they are decimated with injuries to close out the year. Denver won't have starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and while Drew Lock isn't horrible, he does tend to force some things and turn the ball over. Denver's defense will also have to try to contain Patrick Mahomes and the CHiefs high-powered offense without their two starting corners. Chiefs need to win this game to ensure they get at least the No. 2 seed and keep their slim hopes alive for that No. 1 seed (need Titans to lose at Texans). I really like how this team has been playing down the stretch, despite last week's slip up against the Bengals. I don't think this game is close for long. Give me KC -11! |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Browns/Steelers MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -2.5) I don't know how you don't take the Steelers laying less than a field goal at home in this spot. With the Chargers win on Sunday, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention. This has really been an epic fall from the top for the Browns, who have gone from Super Bowl contenders to completely out of it with 2 games to play. I get it's the Steelers and they could eliminate their rivals with a win, I just don't think that outweighs the disappointment for Cleveland right now. Even more so with the game being played in Pittsburgh. Speaking of where the game is being played. I don't think the Steelers homefield advantage gets enough love. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 at home compared to 2-5 on the road. Browns are just 2-5 on the road compared to 5-3 at home. I just can't come up with many scenarios where the Steelers don't win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh -2.5! |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Cardinals v. Cowboys -5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -5) This feels like a massive square play, but I can't help myself. I just think there's some value here with the Cowboys laying less than a touchdown at home against the Cardinals. I was on Arizona in last week's loss at home to the Colts. I really thought we were going to see that team respond in a big way after that embarrassing loss to the Lions. Instead they can't beat a Colts team that lost 80% of their offensive line and best player on defense. I don't think people realize how hard it is for a team to compete with that much turnover in such a short period of time on the offensive line. To me the only think you can do right now is keep betting against the Cardinals, at least until they show us anything that makes you think they are the team we thought they were in their 7-0 start to the season. They remind me a lot of the Steelers team from last year, who had a bit of a fraudulent 11-0 start before ending the regular season 1-4 over their final 5 games. The other big thing for me is that I believe the Cowboys have got some of that swagger back offensively. If Dak doesn't get hurt and go through that midseason lull, the media wouldn't be able to stop talking about this unit. I also think they got a very underrated defense that has a lot of guys who are really good at getting after the quarterback. I think the Cowboys will be out to make a statement in what feels like their final tune-up before the postseason. I think if they lay a dud down the stretch, it's next week at Philly when maybe the rest some guys. Give me Dallas -5! |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Lions v. Seahawks UNDER 41.5 | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 41.5) I got no problem taking my chances with the UNDER 41.5 in Sunday's meaningless game between the Seahawks and Lions. Detroit's offense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season and Seattle has been no where close to efficient offensively as they have been in the past. Seahawks are only scoring 20.4 ppg, while the Lions are at 17.3 ppg and that drops to 14.9 ppg on the road. Detroit's not as bad defensively as you would expect for a team that is just 2-12, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 or fewer. Both defenses are going to get some help from Mother Nature in this game, as it's going to be miserable conditions to play offense in Seattle on Sunday. Not only is their 92% of precipitation, there's going to be close to 20 mph winds during this game. Both teams are going to be forced into running it a lot more than they would like, which will lead to fewer possessions and this game staying well below the number. Give me the UNDER 41.5! |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (Under 46.5) I like the value we are getting with the UNDER at 46.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Rams and Ravens. Not to concerned with who starts at quarterback for Baltimore, I just think the conditions here are going to help keep this under the mark. While it's expected to be a modest 62 degrees in Baltimore for this game, there's a 50% of rain and most importantly it will be windy, with close to 20 mph blowing across the field throughout the game. That's going to make throwing the ball a lot harder, which really helps out the Ravens defense against this Rams offense. Baltimore's biggest problem defensively has been the inability of the secondary to cover. There just isn't going to be the same opportunities for the Rams offense in the passing game with that wind. Same goes for Baltimore, who would likely have a hard time moving the ball on this Rams defense in perfect conditions. Give me the UNDER 46.5! |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Chiefs -4 v. Bengals | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -4) I love the Chiefs -4 at Cincinnati on Sunday. It took a little longer than expected, but Kansas City is finally playing like that elite team we all grew accustomed to the past two years when they made the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the offense has found their rhythm and the KC defense has been playing at a really high level for months now. As good as Cincinnati looked in their win over the Ravens, I still don't trust this team in a big spot like this against one of the league's best. I also think this game is personal for Mahomes, as there's been a lot of chatter in the media about Burrow being the better quarterback in this matchup. I like Burrow, but that's laughable to think he's on the same level as Mahomes. I don't see Cincinnati's defense being able to hold up against the Chiefs offensive attack and I think the bigger story here will be KC's ability to get after Burrow with Jones, Clark and Ingram, as the Bengals just don't have a lot of talent on that offensive line. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Dolphins/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (Dolphins -3) I just think the Saints defense is getting a little too much respect coming off last week's performance where they shutout Tom Brady and the Bucs. I get it's a worse offense they will be facing in the Dolphins, but this is also a very underrated Miami team. The Dolphins have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those. You also got to look at what the Saints are going to have to overcome offensively. They are going to start rookie Ian Book in this game. Hard to expect a lot out of him, especially against this Miami defense. I think getting 1st downs is going to be a struggle. Miami should have great field position throughout and as long as they take care of the ball they should win this game. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Bears +6.5 v. Seahawks | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +6.5) I really like the value here with the Bears as a 6.5-point road dog against the Seahawks. Seattle has no business laying this kind of number in this spot. The Seahawks just had their playoff hopes put to rest in last week's 10-20 loss at the Rams. Even if they win out, the best they can do is 8-9. I could definitely see this team throwing in the towel given all they have gone through this year. It also feels like it's the end of an era in some way for Seattle. Hard to believe that both Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will be back. Some might see Chicago starting Nick Foles as a bad thing, but I'm not so sure Foles shouldn't have been the guy from the start. Andy Dalton gives you next to nothing and Fields isn't quite ready. More than anything, the quarterback play can't be much worse. Give me the Bears +6.5! |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Rams v. Vikings +3 | 30-23 | Loss | -112 | 94 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Vikings +3) I'll take the 3-points with the Vikings at home, as they get ready to host the Rams on Sunday. I just think Los Angeles is bit overvalued coming into this game, as I think this line should be closer to a pick'em. I know a win is a win and a loss is a loss, but this Vikings team deserves to better than 7-7. Every single one of their losses have come by 8 points or less with 5 of them coming by 4 or fewer. A few bounces go the other way and they could easily be sitting here with the same record as these Rams and in that scenario they certainly wouldn't be a dog at home. I also don't love the spot for LA. While the Vikings are on a short week of rest after playing Monday, the Rams are only going to have 4 days to prepare for this game and it's really only 3 when you figure in the travel. On top of that, it's an early window game, which is always tough on west coast teams that have to travel east across multiple time zones. I know the Rams are still trying to get that No. 1 seed, but it's not like they can feel great about catching Green Bay. While they are just 1-game back of the Packers in the standings, their head-to-head loss to the Packers means they have to make up 2 games with 3 to play. Minnesota is clearly the more desperate team in this game, as they are currently tied with the Eagles and Saints for the 3rd and final Wild Card spot in the NFC. Rams are just 3-11 ATS since McVay took over after 3 or more consecutive wins and just 2-9 ATS when coming off 2 or more straight wins the last two seasons. Give me the Vikings +3! |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Ravens +3 v. Bengals | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Ravens +3) This is a prime example of how hard it is to bet the NFL early. I was more than fine with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. In fact, I would have prefered it. Next thing you know he goes down to Covid. Unfortunately I'm stuck with a bad number on the site, but I have got down again on Baltimore at 7.5 and would still recommend it at +7. Baltimore will have Josh Johnson at quarterback. Not ideal, but it could be worse. Johnson didn't look bad in his limited action with the Jets earlier this season. He had that game against Indy where he threw for 317 yards and 3 TDs. It's also tough on the opposing team when a team looks like they are dead in the water. You just don't get as jacked up for a game you feel like you should win no problem. On the flip side, the Ravens got nothing to lose here. They are going to come out firing, especially playing with revenge from that ugly loss the Bengals handed them on their home field earlier this season. Give me Baltimore plus the points! |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Colts/Cardinals MAX UNIT Top Play (Cardinals -1) I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Cardinals. Arizona has went from being the talk of the NFL with their 7-0 start, but they have lost a lot of that hype going just 3-4 over their last 7 games. I was one that never thought the Cardinals were as good as their great start, but this is a very good football team and one that I think is primed for a big bounce back after an UGLY loss to the Lions last week. As for the Colts, they have now become that team everyone can't stop talking about. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 and are fresh off a strong 27-17 win at home against the Patriots, who coming in were the team everyone was riding. I think Arizona's ability to contain Jonathan Taylor and when he's not the dominating part of that offense they can be exposed. Cardinals should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me Arizona -1! |
|||||||
12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE (Titans +3.5) I got to take the Titans at +3.5 at home against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. I know Tennessee has fallen off quite a bit since losing Henry, but they have actually ran it pretty well without their big horse. Titans had over 200 yards on the ground in their last game against the Steelers and 270 a couple of games back against the Pats. I also think it's HUGE for that Titans offense to get back their go-to-guy on the outside in wide out A.J. Brown. Tennessee is also not an easy place to play and these home teams have quite a big edge in these Thursday Night games. Give me the Titans +3.5! |
|||||||
12-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 17-27 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 42) I'm going to take the UNDE 42 in Tuesday's NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Football Team. I just don't see either team doing a whole lot offensively in this game. While we are still waiting to see who is going to play for Washington, we know they are going to have most of their defensive line in tact and this is a unit that has been outstanding against the run. Philly also loves to run the ball and I don't think they are going to feel the need to force the pass game with how much the Football Team is going to struggle offensively. Washington's top two QBs, Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen didn't travel with the team. Both do have until 4 pm to get cleared to play, but it seems a bit unlikely. Football Team is also going to be missing two starting offensive linemen, backup running back J.D. McKissic and wideout Curtis Samuel. You also got to factor in the lack of practice time this team has had, even with the game getting moved back. Give me the UNDER 42! |
|||||||
12-20-21 | Raiders +3 v. Browns | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raiders +3) I was on the Raiders early last week before the game had to be moved back and I'll still take Las Vegas in this fight. Not sure why they moved the game back, because it's not like Cleveland is going to get a lot of guys back. They won't have starting quarterback Baker Mayfield or backup Case Keenum. That's a big problem for an offense that wasn't playing very well. Key here is there's no way the Raiders can assume anything and just think they will walk over Cleveland. They have to win this game to keep their season alive and arguably have the best looking injury report of any team in the league right now. Give me Las Vegas +3! |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Panthers +11 v. Bills | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Panthers +11) As difficult as it is to back the Panthers given how much I've been burned by Carolina this season and the ridiculous rate at which these big favorites have been covering the last two weeks, there's no way I'm not playing the Panthers at this price. It's not so much that I'm really big on Carolina. More than anything, this is a play against the Bills. I want to start out by saying, I was on this Buffalo downfall from the start. With last week's loss to the Bucs we at worst will push our win total bet on the Bills UNDER 11. I'd love to see it here, but I think we will get it for next week when they go to Foxborough to face the Patriots. Speaking of that game, it's part of why I like this spot for the Panthers. Buffalo is coming off two massive games with that monster game on deck. Two weeks ago they hosted the Pats on MNF in a wind storm and last week went on the road and lost a heartbreaker to Tom Brady and the Bucs 27-33 in OT. Also, while I think the experts can see the flaws in this Buffalo team, the betting public still thinks they are great and in their minds this is the perfect bounceback spot for the Bills against a struggling Panthers team. Which is why I think we are seeing the inflated number here. I also think the books really want to push the envelope on these big favorites given how many have covered the last two Sunday's. I know Cam Newton and the Panthers offense have been a mess the last two games, but it's been more about turnovers than anything, as they have coughed it up 3 times in each of their last two games. I'm banking that we will see some regression in that area this week against a Bills defense that has regressed a ton of late and forced just 2 turnovers total in their last 4 games combined. I also love the matchup for the Panthers defense. Carolina's ranked No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense, giving up a mere 177.7 ypg. It's really a nightmare matchup for this Bills offense that really has no desire to run the football. Give me the Panthers +11! |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -3.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -113 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) -Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -3.5) As soon I heard that Urban Meyer was being fired from the Jaguars, I couldn't place my bet fast enough on them to cover at home against the Texans on Sunday. I think it's pretty safe to say that Meyer had lost that lockerroom and I'm not really sure he ever had it. There's no question that he rubbed several of the players and coaches the wrong way. It's going to be like a breath of fresh air for this team to go to work and not have to see his face. I think it's going to translate into by far the best showing the Jags will have had this season and lucky for them they get to take out their frustration on a horrible team like the Texans. Houston is a team the Jags could have beat and covered against despite Meyers. Keep in mind not only have the Jags had to deal with all of Myers crap, they have played a brutal schedule. Give me Jacksonville -3.5! |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
50* (NFL) -Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -1) I will gladly take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em at home against the Titans. I'm not big on this Pittsburgh team, but I love this matchup and price on the Steelers. The Titans are still getting way too much respect for what they accomplished prior to losing two of their best players to injury in Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. It's also not just those two, Tennessee has a laundry list of guys on the injury report. Big Ben has looked better of late, but more than anything, this is a game the Steelers should be able to control from the start with their defense. As long as the offense shows some kind of life and avoids turning it over, Pittsburgh should not only win this game, but win comfortably. Give me Pittsburgh -1! |
|||||||
12-18-21 | Patriots +117 v. Colts | 17-27 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Pats/Colts Saturday Night ANNIHILATOR (Patriots +117) I'm not saying Mac Jones is going to be the next Tom Brady, but this 2021 Patriots team reminds me so much of the Patriots teams' from Brady's early days in New England, where they won Super Bowl because of Belichick and the defense and not Brady's arm. Few teams covered more games during that stretch than the Pats. New England comes into this game having won and covered 7 straight games. A big reason for that is Jones figured out how to take care of the ball. Patriots had 11 turnovers during their 2-4 start and have just 5 total over their 7 game win streak. They are extremely physical on both sides of the ball and the only team to hold them under 100 yards rushing all season was the Bucs back in Week 4. So while the Colts run defense is solid, the Pats will control the line of scrimmage on offense. I also think you are crazy if you think Belichick is going to let Jonathan Taylor beat him. He's going to live with Carson Wentz having to dissect coverages and let's not forget he's had two full weeks to gameplan for this game. This line should have never flipped. Give me the Pats on the money line! |
|||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 0 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Chargers MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 51.5) I love the UNDER on Thursday Night Football this week. Even after all the struggles we have seen from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense this year, the public still sees this team as a this offensive juggernaut. Largely because of what we saw from this offense the last two years. I know they just put up 48 points in a blowout win over the Raiders this past Sunday, but a lot of that was A) Las Vegas turned the ball over 5 times, B) the Raiders refusal to play the cover-2 shell that has given Mahomes so much trouble. KC only had 372 total yards. Mahomes completed 20 of 24 but for just 258. This Chiefs offense is so much more methodical. There's not near as many explosive plays and quick scoring drives. At least, against every other team not named the Raiders. The Chargers aren't stupid. They will play the cover-2 shell and make Mahomes dink and dunk and force Andy to run it more than he wants. The other big thing with KC and the UNDER is the play of their defense. You can say what you want about who the schedule has dealt them of late, but you can't be a bad defense and go 3 straight games in today's NFL and give up fewer than 10 points. It's night and day from what this defense looked like to start the year. Chris Jones will be out, which is a huge part of that defense. However, I think it's even bigger that the Chargers are down starting tackle and by far their best linemen in Rashawn Slater. Frank Clark has been wreaking havoc off the edge and Melvin Ingram is a force on the other side. I think that pressure combined with one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL will make it really hard on Herbert and that Chargers offense to do a whole lot. Give me the UNDER 51.5! |
|||||||
12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Rams/Cardinals MNF Vegas INSIDER (Rams +2.5) I will take my chances with the Rams as a slim 2.5-point road dog against the Cardinals. I'll admit it's not easy going against Arizona at home laying less than a field goal, but it just feels too good to be true. Everyone is going to be on the Cardinals, which has me taking the Rams. I do like this Rams team and they are do for a real signature type of win. They also will be playing with revenge after getting embarrassed 37-20 at home by Arizona back in Week 4. Give me LA +2.5! |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Bears +13 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -118 | 76 h 19 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Bears/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (Bears +13) I love the Bears catching almost two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. This line was going to be inflated on Green Bay no matter when it was played, but even more so with it being a prime time game that is going to get a ton of action. Chicago might not have any business winning this game, but it's not asking a lot for a division opponent to keep it within two touchdowns. Chicago did only lose by a final of 14-24 in the first meeting and that was without starting running back David Montgomery and rookie quarterback Justin Fields still adjusting to the NFL game. Fields definitely has a ways to go, but him getting the start over Andy Dalton at least gives Chicago a chance. Fields didn't do much throwing it against the Packers in the first meeting, but did rush for 43 yards and has been a much bigger threat on the ground as he's gotten more reps. I know the Packers have that No. 1 seed in their sights, but this isn't exactly a game that is going to have their juices flowing. It's a bit of a letdown off that big win against the Rams and a big road game against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on deck. Give me the Bears +13.5! |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs OVER 53 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 53) We took a brutal beat on the OVER last week in the Bucs/Falcons game, but that's not going to keep me from playing the OVER in another Tampa Bay game this week. In fact, I like this one even more with the Bills coming to town. I just think with the way Tom Brady and this Bucs offense is clicking right now and the injuries that Tampa Bay has on the defensive side of the ball, mainly the secondary, they are going to find themselves in some high scoring games. I certainly don't think a Bills defense that just recently lost their star corner, Tre'Davious White, is going to be able to slow down this Bucs passing game. On top of that, I think Buffalo's defense is way overrated, as their numbers have been drastically inflated given all the bad offenses they have faced. Key here is I like Josh Allen and this Bills offense to be able to go score for score with the Bucs. Buffalo is built around the passing game and whether it's been Mother Nature or just some top tier secondaries, they haven't been able to showcase it of late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams eclipsed 30 in this one. Give me the OVER 53! |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2 | 22-24 | Push | 0 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Browns -2) I just really think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland in this spot. Not only do the Browns need this game to stay in the race for the AFC North title, they desperately need a win here just to stay in the playoff picture in the AFC. Not that motivation was going to be an issue, but this one will mean a little more to Cleveland, as they went into their bye last week off a hard fought 16-10 loss at Baltimore. While the Browns have had two full weeks to get ready for their shot at revenge, Baltimore had to play at Pittsburgh this past Sunday and it didn't go as planned with the Ravens losing 19-20 on a failed 2-pt attempt at the end of regulation. Not only is the spot bad for Baltimore, but this is a banged up Ravens team. They got 17 guys on IR with 7 of those being starters and 3 of them former Pro Bowl players. They have really been decimated in the secondary, which just lost starter Marlon Humphrey in the loss to Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been a mess and it's shown in the recent struggles of Lamar, who has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 24 times in their last 6 games. I know this game still comes down to the play of Baker Mayfield and the Browns ability to get the ground game going, which is no sure thing. However, I just think the extra rest, especially for Mayfield will pay off in a big home win. Give me the Browns -2! |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team +4.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Football Team +4.5) I have to roll the dice and take Washington as a 4.5-point home dog in Sunday's division showdown with the Cowboys. The Football Team has really came out of nowhere to turn their season around with 4 straight wins. All of it starting when they came out of their bye and beat the Tom Brady and the Bucs 29-19 as a 10-point dog. All 4 of their wins during this run have came as a dog and I think you got to ride this team in this underdog role as long as you can. You could argue their turnaround started before the bye, as they could have easily won at Green Bay and at Denver in the two games leading up to the extra week off. The running game has really sparked the offense and the defense is playing exceptionally well right now. Washington has allowed 21 or fewer points in 5 straight. As for the Cowboys, they always are inflated when it comes to the spread because the public just can't help themselves. I just don't like what I've seen out of Dallas of late. The defense has to force turnovers to be any good and the offense has not been in sync since Dak got hurt. Give me the Football Team +4.5! |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Jaguars +8.5 v. Titans | 0-20 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Jaguars +8.5) As difficult as it is to go into a game needing the Jags to play well, I have to take my chances with Jacksonville at 8.5 against the Titans. I just don't understand what Tennessee has done besides go on their bye week that makes you think this team is going to look any different than it did prior to the bye. It's just not the same team without Derek Henry to really dictate the game. Not only can the Titans not run the ball, defenses no longer have to load the box to try and stop him. I know the numbers aren't great and it hasn't resulted in a lot of close games, but the Jaguars defense isn't as bad as what people think. They haven't allowed an opposing QB to throw for more than 290 yards in 6 straight games and this is a stretch where they have faced some decent teams and QBs. If we can just get a little something out of that Jags offense, they might just win this game outright. Give me Jacksonville +8.5! |
|||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
50* (NFL) -Steelers/Vikings MAX UNIT Top Play (Vikings -3) I love Minnesota at -3. The Vikings are the much better team, but there's been an overreaction with the public on these two teams after last week's results. The Vikings just lost a game to the Lions, who hadn't won a game all season. It doesn't get much worse than that. Pittsburgh on the other hand beat a Ravens team that came in with the best record in the AFC. It was also a game many were calling a "must-win" for the Steelers. As bad as it looks losing to the Lions, it's not as bad as what it's being made out to be. In all honesty, that's a Detroit team that could have a handful of wins this year. They are still not out of a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-7. It really feels a lot like the spot Pittsburgh was in last week, where Minnesota has to win here if they want to realistically have a shot. I would clearly say the Vikings have the motivation edge. While not technically a dog, this to me will be a home team playing with a chip on their shoulder. I also just don't think this Steelers team is that good. People forget they tied the Lions and more than half (4) of their wins have come by 5 or fewer points. Give me the Vikings -3! |
|||||||
12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Pats/Bills MNF Vegas INSIDER (Patriots +3) I've been on this Patriots bandwagon for a while now. I bet them to win the AFC East before the season even started. I can't help myself but to take them as a dog against the Bills on Monday Night Football. New England is a matchup nightmare for this Buffalo team that can't run the ball and just aren't a very physical team. The Pats have one of the best secondaries in the league and are one of the best running teams on the other side. If that wasn't going to be hard enough for the Bills to overcome, Mother Nature is going to make it even harder. The conditions for this game are going to be brutal with winds pushing 30 mph and a chance of rain. That's not ideal for a team that can't run the ball. Give me the Patriots +3! |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Broncos/Chiefs SNF Vegas INSIDER (Broncos +10) As difficult as it is to bet against Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye, I just can't pass up on the value with Denver at +10. No question Kansas City has played better football during their 4-game win streak, but not all is quite right with this team. Outside of that game against the Raiders, where Mahomes and the Chiefs looked like the offense of years past, this KC offense has not really done a lot during the win streak. If this offense was truly back to its old form, they would have easily put up 30+ on that Cowboys defense at home. Now they face a really good Denver defense who not only will play that 2-high look that has been giving this Chiefs offense trouble, but also has some nice talent on that side of the ball. Also, while the Chiefs defense has been playing much better, Teddy Bridgewater and that Denver offense are going to be just fine in this game. Give me the Broncos +10! |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Washington Football Team +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 72 h 16 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Football Team +2.5) I love the Football Team to go into Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, making this an easy play for me with Washington as the dog in this fight. While I think people are starting to take notice of what the Football Team has been doing of late, I don't think they have been impressive enough to where they are getting too much respect. It still feels like to me that it's time to buy stock on this team. On the flip side of this, I'm not buying into the Raiders big win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The offense had one good game against a bad Dallas defense. Big deal. Couple big things for me in that game is I don't think people factor in that it was a bit of a letdown spot for Dallas coming off that big game against Mahomes and the Chiefs the week before (it's all anyone was talking about leading up to that Sunday). The other is the Cowboys offense didn't have Cooper or Lamb and Dak still managed to carve up Las Vegas' secondary for 375 yards. That's now 3 straight games the Raiders defense has been absolutely shredded and while this Washington offense isn't as good as those 3 teams the Raiders just faced (Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys), I think they are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. I can't say the same about the Raiders offense. Washington's defense has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. They have held each of their last 5 opponents under 250 passing yards and are giving up just 67.6 rushing yards/game during this stretch. Give me the Football Team +2.5! |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 50 | 30-17 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 0 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 50) I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Sunday's NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Bucs. I don't love to play OVERs in division games, but these two have a history of putting points on the board. They combined for 73 in Tampa's 48-25 win in Week 2 and have combined for at least 50 in each of the last 7 meetings. I think the reason we are getting some value with the OVER is what we have seen out of this Atlanta offense the past few weeks. They scored just 3 points in an ugly loss against Dallas, were shutout at home by the Patriots and scored just 21 last week against the Jags. I'm not saying they are going to breakout of their slump and put up 30+ in this game, but I do think it's a good matchup for the Falcons offense. This Tampa Bay defense is great against the run, but not so great against the pass. Matt Ryan and that Atlanta offense know how to exploit this Bucs defense and I'm confident they can put up 20+ points. Note that prior to playing Carson Wentz and the Colts last week, who they allowed to rack up nearly 400 yards and score 31 points despite having 4 turnovers, they had played a string of games against bad QBs. Their previous 6 games saw them go up against the likes of Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Trevor Siemian, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Jacoby Brissett. I just think it's a good time to sell high on this Tampa Bay defense, as well as buy low on the Bucs offense. While Tampa Bay still might not have Antonio Brown back, they did just get back tight end Rob Gronkowski and he had a huge game with 7 catches for 123 yards on a team-high 10 targets. You also got to look at the caliber of defense the Bucs will be up against. The Falcons have shown no ability to slow down a good offense and I believe that's a direct result of them not being able to get pressure. Atlanta's 15 sacks are the fewest in the league. If you can't get to Brady and make him uncomfortable, it's game over. I got the Bucs easily getting into the 30s in this game and could see them topping 40. Give me the OVER 50! |
|||||||
12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Cowboys/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 47.5) I'm not going to lie, I was hoping for a little better injury news for the Saints, especially on the offensive line at the two tackle positions. Either way, I still think this game will go over the total. The biggest thing you got to remember with the Saints offense is that they are going up against an overrated Cowboys defense. Yes, Dallas forces a lot of turnovers, but they also rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. I also think having Taysom Hill gives that offense some life and his mobility will be crucial with that Cowboys pass rush up against a depleted Saints o-line. I also think there's a chance we don't need New Orleans to do a lot. I really think this Cowboys offense could put up 40+. I don't think this Saints defense is anywhere close to as good as what they get credit for. Their secondary is awful and they are up against one of, if not the, best passing attacks in the league. I also think this Cowboys offense is dying to make a statement after the poor showings and injuries they have had to encounter the last few weeks. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
|||||||
11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Monday Night Football MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +1) I'm going to take the Seahawks to go on the road and find a way to get a win against the Football Team. I just think this is the buy low spot for Seattle. Everyone is not only writing this team off for this season, but I hear all kinds of people talking about how they should blow this whole thing up. I just think it's quite the overreaction and while Russell Wilson hasn't looked great since he came back, he has faced two of the best teams in the league in the Packers and Cardinals. Wilson also came back earlier than expected from that injury, so it shouldn't have been a shocker he didn't look like himself right away. This should be more in line when we expected him back and I think he has a big game. I also think this is a good time to sell high on Washington after back-to-back upset wins over the Bucs and and Panthers. I'm still not a believer in this Football Team's offense and because so much attention is going to how bad the Seattle offense has been, people are overlooking how good this team has been defensively over the last couple months. Give me the Seahawks +1! |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 74 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Browns/Ravens MAX UNIT Top Play (Browns +3.5) I love the Browns as a 3.5-point dog against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I just think this is the perfect buy low spot on Cleveland. All you hear about is how bad Baker Mayfield is playing and how this team isn't what we thought they were during their great start to the season. I'm not about to say Mayfield has played great, but he's not built to carry a team. This team is built on their running game and defense and injuries have really kept them from playing to their potential. I think they are close. They got back Chubb and now will finally have their 1-2 punch out of the backfield back with Kareem Hunt expected to return. They also are getting back tackle Jack Conklin to give that o-line a big boost. As for the Ravens, I think they aren't as good as what people think. Lamar Jackson is great, but they have decimated with injuries. The offensive line is awful and will somehow have to slow down that great Browns pass rush. They also aren't the same on defense as they have been in past years. There's a lot of weak spots for Baltimore on that side of the ball. I think Cleveland could really make a statement here. Give me the Browns +3.5! |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -3) I agreed with you that the Colts were the play last week as a 7.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just think winning the way they did has them getting way to much respect this week against Tom Brady and the Bucs. We both mentioned how we didn't think that Josh Allen and the Bills were as good as what people thought. That's the thing tough. The public still sees Buffalo as one of the best teams in the league. No one is even hesitating to lay almost a touchdown with them on the road in a short week against the Saints on Thanksgiving night. So while Indy may have went on the road and embarrassed Buffalo last week, I think they could be the ones on the receiving end of a lopsided loss this week. I think most have come to realize that the Colts want to run their offense through running back Jonathan Taylor. I just saw an article on ESPN on how Taylor leads all players, not just RBs, in Pro Bowl voting. Maybe I'm on underestimating him, but I think he's going to have a really tough time getting going against this Bucs front seven. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 78.4 ypg. More than 10 yards fewer than the next best team in the Ravens, who give up 88.6 ypg. I think with Taylor being limited, the Colts are going to have a really tough time moving the ball in this game. On the flip side of this, Brady and the Bucs put their ugly showing at Washington out of their bye in the rear view window, as they scored 30 points with over 400 yards in their blowout win against the Giants on Monday Night Football. Now I know the Giants aren't viewed as a very good team, but they had been playing really well defensively going into that game. Even after that showing, NY's secondary ranks 8th in the NFL, giving up just 6.9 yards/pass attempt. The Colts on the other hand are way back at 20th in that department, giving up 7.5 yards/attempt. I get they made Josh Allen look bad, but making Tom Brady look bad is a different story. Brady knows how to beat any defense you throw at him and I just don't trust this Indy secondary. Prior to facing Allen, the Colts previous 8 games had them go up against the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Mike White/Josh Johnson, Ryan Tannehill twice, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. You might be saying Jackson is good. I agree and he went 37 for 44 for 442 yards and 4 scores against Indy. I just think there's too much value with Tampa Bay at -3 to pass up and if it were to dip under 3 to 2.5, I'll be adding even more. I think the line here should at a minimum be Bucs -3.5 and probably should be 4 to 4.5. Give me Tampa Bay -3! |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Jets v. Texans -2.5 | 21-14 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texans -2.5) I just think there's some decent value with the Texans laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets. I'm not just taking Houston because they are coming off that big upset win over Tennessee. I really don't love betting on bad teams, but I do like betting against the worst of the worst and this Jets team is really bad. The Jets decided to start Joe Flacco last week to make sure there was no debating on if they should go back to Zach Wilson this week. There's definitely some upside with Wilson, but I think any of the other three guys they have used in recent weeks are a better option. I think people forget how bad Wilson was prior to his injury. I also wonder how the players will respond if he struggles to play well. You have to think there's some guys on that team that don't think he's the guy that gives them the best shot to win. The other big thing is I think this Jets defense might be one of the worst we have seen in some time. Don't be fooled by a bad Dolphins offense only scoring 24 on them last week. That's more of Miami than anything. With Tyrod Taylor calling the shots for Houston, I think the Texans will have their best showing since Week 1, when they put up 37 points and nearly 450 yards of offense against the Jags. Give me the Texans -2.5! |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bills/Saints Prime Time MONEYMAKER (UNDER 45.5) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 45.5 in Thanksgiving night cap between the Bills and Saints. I just don't see a lot of offense for either team in this game. Josh Allen and the Bills are just not clicking offensively right now. Outside of that big game against the Jets, who is atrocious defensively, they haven't been playing up to their potential for weeks. Most point to the game against the Jags as the start, but they weren't great in their win against the Dolphins the week before and last week couldn't do anything against a pretty suspect Colts secondary. Now they go on the road against a good Saints defense that is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting run all over by the Eagles last week. I just don't see a repeat of that for New Orleans and it's pretty simple. Buffalo can't run the ball. On the flip side, things aren't looking much better for the Saints offense. Trevor Siemian is not the answer at quarterback and he's being asked to do too much with Alvin Kamara sidelined. Add in an offensive line that figures to be down 3 starters and it's hard to see them doing much against a similarly pissed off Bills defense. Give me the UNDER 45.5! |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Bears v. Lions OVER 41 | 16-14 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bears/Lions Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 41) I know there's not a lot to get excited about with this game and I think given the quarterback situation for these two teams, as well as their recent performances, most will have a hard time seeing a lot of offense in this game. I'm not saying it's going to be a shootout by any means, but I do think at 41 the total here is too low, especially with both teams playing on no rest. Not to mention I think we are buying at the all-time low with both of these offenses right now. Chicago will have to go with Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. I get it. Dalton isn't sexy and doesn't offer much on the ground, but he gives that offense a better chance of succeeding right now. Teams just don't have to respect Fields throwing the ball. Even if it's just 3-yard dump offs, it makes the Lions play a little more honest. The other big key here is that I think we are going to see Jared Goff under center for the Lions. While he's nothing to get excited about, he's better than Boyle and he threw for 299 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with Chicago. I also think there's a chance here we could see a lackluster showing from the Bears defense, as it really feels like this team has given up on Naggy and this season. Give me the OVER 41! |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Giants/Bucs MNF Vegas INSIDER (Giants +11.5) I'll take my chances with the Giants catching double-digits on the road against Tampa Bay. It just feels like the books are giving Tom Brady and the Bucs the same treatment this year that they gave Mahomes and the Chiefs last year after they won the Super Bowl. They know the public is going to back them no matter what and are inflating the lines so much that they you got to take the other side. It would be one thing to lay this big number with Tampa Bay if they were at full strength, but they are still without one of their top weapons offensively in Antonio Brown and even if Gronk comes back, he's been out so long that he's unlikely to have a big role if he does play. I also think the loss of defensive tackle Vita Vea isn't getting near the attention it should. He's the reason that the Bucs have been so good against the run and I think his absence has a negative ripple effect on the rest of the defense. The Giants also got a lot of injuries they are dealing with, but they are going to be the much more rested team coming off of their bye. I also think this New York defense is very underrated. They have given up 20 or fewer in each of their last 3 games and have been forcing a ton of turnovers (10 takeaways in their last 5 games). Give me the Giants +11.5! |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5) I love the Chiefs as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Cowboys, as this is just too good a price to pass up on KC at home, especially after what we saw last week with their offense finally getting back on track in a 41-14 blowout win against the Raiders. I just think there's a lot of people that credit the Chiefs offense getting back on track as a result of playing the Raiders, who they have seen really fall apart over the last few weeks. I think that's a big mistake. I believe it was exactly what Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team needed and we are going to see them carry it over against an awful Cowboys defense that isn't nearly as good as the numbers show. The other big thing that gets overlooked with Kansas City is their defense and the improvements they have made since the beginning of the season. They have got some guys back from injury like corner Ward and linebacker Gay. They have replaced Sorenson with Thornhill at safety, moved Chris Jones back inside and added a good pass rusher in Melvin Ingram. In the Chiefs last 5 games they are giving up just 88.2 rushing yards/game and 220.8 ypg. Say what you want about who they have played, those numbers would both rank in the Top 10 in the league for the season. I also don't think there's near enough being made about Amari Cooper not being able to play for Dallas. Not having to worry about him is going to allow KC's defense to focus that much more on stopping CeeDee Lamb and if they can keep him from having a big game, I think they keep this Cowboys offense in check. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | 32-13 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Raiders +1) I think we are getting a great price on the Raiders at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Not a big surprise, as the public likes this Cincinnati team with Joe Burrow and they will like that the Bengals are coming off a bye. They also want nothing to do with Las Vegas right now, especially after watching them get beat pretty bad last week at home against the Chiefs. I know the final score looks bad in that game against KC, but that's a different game if DeSean Jackson doesn't fumble on that long pass. He scores there and it's a 3-point game. Instead it was like the life was sucked out of this team. I also think people are sleeping on the improvements that the Chiefs have made defensively over the last month with some of the guys they have added and got back from injury. I think this Raiders defense and their ability to get pressure on the quarterback is something that is getting overlooked, as they should have a field day against a horrible Bengals' offensive line. I also think this Cincinnati defense is one that LV can have some success against. Give me the Raiders +1! |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Dolphins -3) I'll be the first to admit that there wasn't a scenario or opponent that would have had me laying points with the Dolphins on the road, but there's just no way I'm passing up Miami as a mere 3-point road favorite against this Jets team. Not only do I think Miami has improved quite a bit over the last month of the season, I feel that the Jets are playing with fire with the decision of the coaching staff to start a washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback over the likes of Mike White. Now I know White played poorly last week against the Bills, but that was somewhat to be expected given he was up against arguably the league's best secondary. The thing is, they aren't benching him because of that or because he's injured. They are 100% starting Flacco to protect their 1st round investment of Zach Wilson. They want to make sure that when Wilson is healthy and ready to play, they can go back to him as the starter without any controversy. While it might prove to be the wise decision long-term, I don't think the decision can sit well with the players in the locker room. They are basically saying they would rather lose than play the best players that give them a chance to win. I really think as bad as the Jets have looked of late, this could very well go down as their worst performance of the year. Not only are they limiting themselves offensively, but they have without a doubt in my mind the worst defense in the league. I think Miami showed us in last week's big upset win over the Ravens that they have not quit on this season. I know it's a longshot, but even at 3-7 this team has to feel like they can get back in the playoff race in the AFC. With home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets after this road game at New York, they got a realistic shot to be sitting at 7-7 with 3 to play. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SHOCKER (Bears +6.5) I really like the value we are getting with the Bears catching 6.5-points at home against the Ravens. I really don't think the Ravens should be more than a field goal favorite in this game, but it's been inflated because of all the public love for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, as well as the fact that Chicago has lost 4 straight. I just don't think this Ravens team is as good as what their record shows or what people think. The defense is no where close to what it's been in the past, they don't have the talent at running back that they have had in the past. The offense is also not producing anywhere close to expectations on the road, as they are scoring just 19.8 ppg away from home on the season. As for the Bears, I think this is a team that is on the rise. It took some time, but Justin Fields finally looks comfortable and we really saw him take a big step forward in the second half of that game against the Steelers in Week 9. Ravens have failed to cover each of their last 6 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing on average in this spot by 5.2 ppg. Give me the Bears +6.5! |