Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 47.5) I love the UNDER 47.5 in Sunday's big NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. I know Green Bay has an all-time great at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers, but their offense has been far from elite in 2021. The Packers are 19th in scoring at just 21.6 ppg and 20th in total offense at just 339.4 yards/game. Let's also not forget they are down their top back in Aaron Jones, have lost their top tight end in Robert Tonyan, could be without wideout Allen Lazard and have some injuries up front on the offensive line. The thing with Green Bay is they haven't needed their offense to be great to win games because their defense has been so good. They are making good quarterbacks look average at best. Just look at what they have done in their last 3 games against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. It will be no different here against Kirk Cousins and what I think is a very overrated Vikings offense. ' Green bay hasn't had a game see more than 47 points since the calendar turned to October (7 straight games). Give me the UNDER 47.5! |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Patriots/Falcons TNF NO-BRAINER (Patriots -6.5) I know everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this game, but there's no way I'm betting against Bill Belichick and this New England team in this spot. I was high on this Pats team coming into the year and bet them at 3/1 to win the AFC East when everyone was taking the Bills. They got off to a slow start, but as Belichick teams do, they have gotten better and better as the season rolls on. New England has won and covered each of their last 4 games, with 3 of those 4 wins coming in blowout fashion. I just don't see how the Falcons can make a game of this. Everyone was buying into Atlanta after their 3-1 SU and ATS run leading into the Cowboys game, but it was more of them just taking advantage of a soft schedule. I still think this is a below average team and they showed that last week in their 43-3 loss at Dallas. The biggest thing here for me is Belichick's ability to gameplan week to week and take away what a team does best. Well this Atlanta team can't run the ball and you can bet your last dollar that Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Kyle Pitts out of the game. I also think it's huge that Atlanta will likely be without their swiss army knife in Cordarrelle Patterson. Outside of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley (who left the team), no other player for the Falcons has more than 200 yards receiving. Unless the Pats offense has a complete no show, I just don't see them not winning here by less than a touchdown. Give me New England -6.5! |
|||||||
11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Rams/49ers MAX UNIT MNF Top Play (Under 50.5) I want nothing to do with the spread in this game. Rams look like the obvious choice at -3.5, but the obvious play in a prime time game never seems to go like you expect. I would much rather have a bet on the UNDER 50.5 for this division matchup. I just don't think this 49ers offense is very good. They have scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 and are up against a stingy Rams defense that has been really good against the run of laste. In LA's last 5 games they are giving up just 80.4 ypg on the ground. For San Francisco's offense to play well, they need to be able to run the ball to get to their play action in the passing game. On the flip side, I do think the 49ers have a solid defense. I know they have given up some points in a couple games here of late, but they allow the same 5.5 yards/play that the Rams do and you could argue that SF has played the harder schedule. I also think the loss of Robert Woods is huge, as it figures to take some time for Odell Beckham Jr to learn the Rams offense. The 49ers also have a great understanding of what McVay and that offense wants to do. UNDER is 21-7 in the Rams last 28 as a favorite and 11-4 in their last 15 off an ATS loss. UNDER is also 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 as an underdog. Give me the UNDER 50.5! |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -2.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -104 | 73 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Broncos -2.5) I will gladly lay the 2.5 at home with the Broncos against the Eagles. I just don't understand why this Philly team keeps getting so much respect. They closed as a pick'em at home against the Chargers and were only a 1-point dog at LV. Their only 3 wins on the sason are at Atlanta in Week 1 when the Falcons were a complete mess, at Carolina and at Detroit. I know they are a good running team, but they have a liability at quarterback in Jalen Hurts. In the Eagles last 5 games they are averaging a mere 157.4 passing yards/game. I just don't see them going on the road in a very tough place to play at Denver and just running the ball effectively enough to win this game. The Broncos come into this game off a shocking 30-16 win at Dallas as a 10-point dog. I don't always love backing teams off a big win like this, but that's usually because they end up being overvalued and laying more than they should be. I don't think that's the case here. Everyone wants to just say the Cowboys didn't play well and Dak wasn't ready to come back. No one wants to give this team the respect they deserve. I don't think there's any question that Teddy Bridgewater is the best QB on the field in this game and I think he's going to have a huge game against an awful Eagles secondary. I also wouldn't sleep on this Denver ground game. They got two talented back in rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. The two had 191 yards on 38 carries against Dallas. I just don't think the Eagles are good enough to even make a game of it. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots -1 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Patriots -1) I will gladly take my chances betting against Cleveland in this one. The Browns had the most lopsided win of any team in Week 9, as they went on the road and crushed division rival Cincinnati 41-16. Some might see a strong correlation with Cleveland having one of their best games after they ridded themselves of Odell Beckham Jr, but I'm not buying that storyline. I think the Browns caught a massive break early in that Bengals game and it was also a great matchup for Cleveland. The break came on the first drive of the game, where Cincinnati drove it all the way down to 1st & Goal to go, only to throw a 99-yard pick six. That completely flipped the script of that game and gave a struggling Browns team some much-needed life. Browns also had two long TD plays. They had a 60-yard TD pass on the first play after the Bengals turned it over on downs. They later got a 70-yard TD run from Nick Chubb. They only outgained the Bengals 361 to 348 and were out first downed 25 to 14. It simply wasn't as dominant as performance as what the score leads you to believe. I think it's going to be a lot tougher sledding for Baker Mayfield and that Browns offense on the road against a Pats defense that has really come into their own of late. It also doesn't help that Chubb is probably a no go after testing positive for COVID and even if he does play, Bill Belichick will have a game plan in place to not let Cleveland get their running game going and force Mayfield to beat them. Mayfield has faced a Belichick defense once so far in his brief career. That was at New England back in 2019. It didn't go well. He threw for just 194 yards and was sacked 5 times in a 13-27 loss. It's not going to be easy for the Pats offense against this Browns defense, but I just trust New England's offense more in this game and all we need is for them to find a way to win the game. Give me the Patriots -1! |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets OVER 47 | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 47) I think we are getting a great price here on the OVER at 47 in Sunday's game between AFC East rivals Buffalo and New York. I really love this spot for the Bills' offense, as they are going to be a pissed off bunch after scoring just 6-points in last week's shocking 6-9 loss at Jacksonville. They couldn't have asked for a better team to get back on track against than this Jets team. New York is dead last in the NFL in both scoring defense (31.4 ppg) and total defense (408.1 ypg). In their last 3 games they have given up 54 to the Patriots, 31 to the Bengals and 45 to the Colts. All 3 of those games combining for at least 65 points. I feel pretty good about Buffalo scoring at least 35 in this game and wouldn't be shocked if they got into the 40s. On the flip side of this, I love the fact that the Jets are going to go with Mike White at quarterback instead of going back to rookie Zach Wilson. White was sensational in the Jets upset win over the Bengals and looked really good to start out that game against the Colts before he got hurt and had to leave the game. I know the Bills have the top ranked secondary, but I still think we could see the Jets easily get into the 20s and that should be more than enough to push this past the number. Give me the OVER 47! |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Lions +9) I will gladly take my chances here with the Lions as a 9-point dog against the Steelers. I don't care how bad you think this Detroit team is, Pittsburgh should not be close to a double-digit favorite against any team in the league. The Steelers offense is extremely limited with the little that Big Ben has left in the tank and their defense isn't all that it's made out to be. We saw that in their last game against the Bears, where they couldn't stop Justin Fields in the 2nd half of that game. I also think there's value here with Detroit, because the last time we saw them they got annihilated 44-6 at home by the Eagles. Thing with that game was it was a massive letdown for the Lions after playing their hearts out for Jared Goff against his old team in the Rams. Outside of that game, the one thing the Lions have done under Campbell is play extremely hard. This team is an NFL record long field goal from beating the Ravens, they also lost by just 2 at Minnesota. The game against the Rams was extremely close. I just feel like we are going to get one of those massive efforts from Detroit out of their bye week. I definitely think they cover the big number and I don't think it's out of the question that they win this game outright. Give me the Lions +9! |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Saints v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 18 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) I don't care that this looks too good to be true with Tennessee. The Titans are getting disrespected with this number. They should be be a bigger favorite than 2.5 at home against a Saints team that is starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. It shouldn't really come as a huge surprise that the books are off on the line when it comes to the Titans. They have been all season. Tennessee has covered 5 straight and are 7-2 ATS on the year. Everyone wanted to make a big deal about losing Derrick Henry, but we saw they just won 28-16 last week at the Rams in a prime time game. I also don't know that this Saints defense is as good as people are making it out to be. They didn't look elite in last week's home game against the Falcons. The other big thing that I think people overlook with the Titans is their defense. This team has went from being viewed as one of the worst defenses in the league to playing as well as any team on that side of the ball. You can't run the ball on them and they got guys who can get after the QB. I just don't see Siemian and the Saints offense being able to do enough to win on the road, which is basically what they would have to do to cover a number like this. Give me the Titans -2.5! |
|||||||
11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +7.5) I know I'm going to be in the minority here, especially in the eyes of the public, but I like the Dolphins as a home dog against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. I don't really care if it's Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett, I think this Miami offense can move the ball on what I think is an overrated Baltimore defense. I think a lot of people would be surprised by just how bad the numbers are for the Ravens defense. Baltimore is giving up 374 ypg, which is only slightly better than the 392 that the Dolphins give up. The more staggering stat is that they are giving up 6.5 yards/play, which I care about a lot more than yards/game. Just to compare, Miami is only giving up 5.9 yards/play and that drops to 5.3 yards/play at home. The other thing for me is the spot. Baltimore just finished up playing 4 straight games at home with a thrilling 34-31 OT win against the Vikings, where they trailed 17-3 early and 24-10 in the 2nd half. It would not shock me at all on a short week if the Ravens went down to warm Miami against a bad Dolphins team and laid an egg. The other thing with Miami is they have been closer to winning than what people give them credit for. Prior to their win over the Texans, they only trailed the Bills 10-3 going into the 4th quarter, lost by just 2 to a Falcons team that has taken off, by just 3 in London to the Jags, by 10 to the Colts and by 3 to the Raiders. I don't know if they can win this game, but 7.5 is too good a price to pass up. Give me the Dolphins +7.5! |
|||||||
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Steelers/Bears MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -7) I'm going to lay the 7-points with Pittsburgh in this one. I just don't trust this Bears team at all. The are extremely limited offensively and the defense is missing two of their best players in linebacker Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson. Mack didn't play at all in their last game against the 49ers and Jackson left on the second play from scrimmage. Without those two, San Francisco's limited offense was able to put up 33 points and 467 total yards. It's why I feel pretty good hear about the Steelers being able to do some things offensively. On the flip side of the ball, I just don't think Justin Fields is there. I know he played better in the loss to the 49ers, but most of the damage he did was on the ground. There's just zero threat of a passing game. I just think this Steelers defense is going to be able to take the run away and I don't know what Chicago can do to stay on the field. I see something along a 24-10 type of game. Give me the Steelers -7! |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Rams | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sunday Night Football NO-BRAINER (Titans +7.5) I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 7.5-point dog against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I think the perception with Tennessee is that they are going to fall flat on their face without Derrick Henry at running back. I'm not saying it's not a big blow to this team, but I think we are definitely seeing a big overreaction with this line because of Henry's absence. I think Adrian Peterson is going to surprise some people with how well he plays. People forget how good this guy was last year on a bad Lions team. Tennessee is also not all run. They can beat you with the passing game with Ryan Tannehill. A.J. Brown has also really picked up his game of late. In his last 3 games, he's got 25 passes for 379 yards (had 10 catches for 130 yards in the previous 4 games). This is also not the same elite defense for the Rams that we saw a year ago. Not to say they aren't an above average unit on that side of the ball, they just don't look to be on par to last year and some of that is definitely losing their defensive coordinator. Also, Keep in mind that 5 of their 8 opponents have been some bad offensive teams in the Colts, Bears, Giants, Lions and Texans. Give me the Texans +7.5! |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Packers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Packers +7.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Packers as a 7.5-point dog against the Chiefs. Not having Aaron Rodgers is a big blow to Green Bay's chances of winning this game, but that's not to say the Packers can't win this game with Jordan Love at quarterback. Kansas City has shown nothing to this point of the season to make me think they can blow out a team like Green Bay. Daniel Jones and the Giants almost beat KC last week in a prime time game and that was one the Chiefs had to have. Everyone just wants to assume that Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team is going to flip a switch and just go right back to being the same team that made it to back-to-back Super Bowls. I just don't see it. Mahomes is not right. He's not seeing the field well at all and to me it looks like he's playing way to fast and not letting it come to him. He's trying to be the hero on every play. You also got to looks at this Chiefs defense. They have played better of late, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball. Green Bay should be able to use their running game to really make the game easy for Love. I would not be shocked at all if Love came out and played well. I think KC wins the game, but I think this going to be a 1-score game in the 4th quarter that could go either way. Give me the Packers +7.5! |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Cardinals v. 49ers | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers PK) I love the 49ers at a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. San Francisco really should have beat Arizona in the first meeting. A game they lost 10-17. They did that with rookie backup Trey Lance at quarterback and it's clear that Lance is not ready for this stage. This time they will have Jimmy G under center and that's a huge upgrade at the biggest position on the field. On the flip side of this, I think there's a decent chance here that the Cardinals will be without their starting quarterback in Kyler Murray. He's questionable with an ankle injury and was very limited in practice this week. Without Murray I think Arizona would be around a .500 team, as he's had to do so much for this offense. Even if he plays, he doesn't figure to be 100% and will certainly not be looking to run the ball, which is arguably what makes him so special. This is a statement game for the 49ers, who really have to win this one to have any shot at making the playoffs. Give me San Francisco PK! |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Chargers -1) I'm shocked the Chargers are only a 1-point favorite at the Eagles in Week 9. It almost makes me wonder if there's some covid problems or something we don't know about with LA. Unfortunately you just can't handicap that and I just can't pass up on this line. I'm not sure why the Eagles are getting this much respect from the books. Sure they looked great in last week's 44-6 win over the Lions, but I loved Philly in that game. They were laying just 3.5 on the road vs an awful Detroit team that was in a massive letdown spot. The Lions were coming off a devastating 19-28 loss at the Rams. A game they led 19-17 going into the 4th quarter. Losing how they did definitely played into the bad spot, but it was also the emotional letdown from playing as hard as they could for Goff in his first game vs his former team. The other two wins for Philly are a 21-18 road win against a struggling Panthers team and a Week 1 win over the Falcons. We saw them lose 21-41 at Dallas, 30-42 at home to the Chiefs and 22-28 at home to the Bucs. In those 3 games the Eagles defense gave up an average of 416.7 ypg. I got some concerns with the Chargers defense, but there's no reason I can find that would make me think Justin Herbert and that LA offense won't have their way on Sunday. I do get the Eagles are a good running team and the Chargers have not been good vs the run, but I don't think it's bad enough that Philly is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this game. Another thing with Philly's run game is they lost their top back in Miles Sanders before that Lions game. Something I don't think that's getting much attention because the Eagles just had 236 rushing yards in that win over the Lions. I really think LA should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me the Chargers -1! |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Raiders v. Giants +3 | 16-23 | Win | 108 | 69 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Giants +3) I will take my chances with the Giants as a 3-point home dog against the Raiders. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Giants team the past couple of weeks. They had dominating 25-3 win over the Panthers as a 3-point home dog in Week 7 and then went on the road and gave the Chiefs all they could handle in a 17-20 loss on Monday Night Football. The offense still has a ways to go, but that defense has really impressed me. They held the Panthers to a mere 173 total yards and then only gave up 368 to Mahomes and the Chiefs. A game no one wants to give them any credit for. All everyone wants to talk about is how bad KC is playing. On the flip side of this, I really have a hard time seeing Las Vegas showing up and playing well in this game given what's happened to their young star wide out Henry Ruggs III. For those that don't know, Ruggs III drove drunk and killed somebody this past week and will be spending the next 10 years or so in prison. Ruggs currently leads LV in receiving with 469 yards and was averaging a team-best 19.5 yards/reception. Not having that big play guy is going to make it that much harder on Carr and this offense. It's also nothing like when they came out fired out with something to prove after Gruden was fired. Focusing on football will be really hard for this Raiders team not just this week but the rest of the season. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants didn't win this game in a blowout. Give me New York +3! |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +6.5) I just think there's too much value to pass up a play on the Vikings as a 6.5-point dog against the Ravens. A lot of people were burned by Minnesota in last week's loss to the Cowboys, as everyone was on them with the Cowboys playing without Prescott. Not only did the Vikings not cover, they lost the game outright. I also think people are drawn to bet Baltimore with the Ravens coming off their bye week. Having the extra rest is nice and all, but the number here has been inflated because of it. I also think there's this perception that the Ravens are this elite team, when they haven't really played like one. Baltimore's 5-2 record looks great, but they could very easily be 2-5. They trailed 17-28 in the 4th quarter of a 36-35 win over the Chiefs, needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Lions 19-17 and somehow beat the Colts 31-25 in OT after trailing 25-9 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The offensive line has been decimated with injuries. Lamar Jackson has been sacked 3 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. The defense is also not what we are use to seeing. The biggest weakness being their secondary. If they can just give Kirk Cousins a little bit of time in the pocket, he's going to have a huge game here. Either way, I see this as a one score game in the 4th quarter, making it an easy play on Minnesota. Give me the Vikings +6.5! |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Browns v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NFL) AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals -2.5) I love the Bengals as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Browns. I just think we are getting an exceptional price here with Cincinnati after last week's shocking 31-34 loss at the Jets as a 11.5-point favorite. What a lot of people overlooked in that game against the Jets, is that was about as tough as spot as you will find. Cincinnati was coming off an emotional statement win on the road against the Bengals and were playing their 3rd straight road game, which is historically a spot where even the best teams struggle to play well. Add in this big game against Cleveland looming and it's no surprise they didn't show up with their best effort. As difficult as it is, you just got to throw that performance out and look at what this team was in the weeks prior. And that's a Bengals team that was playing as well as any team in the league. Offensively they got something special going with their combo of second year quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wide out Chase. Defensively this is a team that had not allowed more than 25 in any game before giving up 34 to the Jets. On the flip side, this Browns team is trending in the wrong direction. Baker Mayfield is just not playing good football and even with a great running game, they struggle to score. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. I just think it's asking a lot for the Browns to go on the road and win this game, which is basically what you are saying will happen if you take the 2.5. Give me the Bengals -2.5! |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Jets/Colts TNF VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -10) I'm shocked we have seen this much overreaction from last week. The lookahead on this game was around the Colts -14 and we are getting them at -10. Everyone is jumping on the Mike White bandwagon after his 400+ yard performance in his first ever start last week against the Bengals. I just think that big game by White was more a culprit of the Bengals just not showing up to play after such a big game the previous week against Baltimore and it being their 3rd straight road game. Not to mention the Jets had just lost 13-54 the previous week to the Pats. I just think if White was as good as he looked in that start, he would have somehow forced his way onto the field before now. Guy was drafted back in 2018. I also think there's a narrative out there that with the Colts heartbreaking 31-34 OT loss last week to the Titans their season is now over with them sitting at just 3-5 and and essentially 4-games back of Tennessee in the AFC South. No questions is a much bigger uphill climb after losing that game, but I'm not buying at all that this team is going to just throw in the towel with more than half of the schedule still to play. I like the Colts to win here and win going away. Give me Indianapolis -10! |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs OVER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Giants/Chiefs MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) *Analysis Coming* |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) I love the UNDER 50.5 in Sunday's big NFC South matchup between the Bucs and Saints. I just have a hard time seeing this being a shootout. In fact, I think it's going to be a struggle for both teams offensively. Tom Brady has been great, but almost all of their high point totals have come against bad defenses. They had 48 against the Falcons, 45 against the Dolphins and 38 vs the Bears. While Chicago's defense is horrible, that was just all turnovers by the Bears offense. Only 1 of TB's 6 scoring drives were more than 50 yards with 4 of the 5 needing 40 or less yards to reach the endzone. I think with Antonio Brown still out and Gronk likely either sidelined or playing at less than 100%, it's going to be hard for Brady and that offense to sustain drives against this Saints defense. On the flip side of this, it's no secret that Sean Payton has zero desires of letting Jameis Winston throw it 40+ times per game. That's not going to change just because the Bucs are banged up in the secondary. Their whole game plan is going to be to ride Kamara and do what they can to eat up clock and limit the possessions for Brady and that Bucs offense. Unless we get an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers or the Saints defense somehow gets exposed, this thing is going to finish in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Patriots +4.5 v. Chargers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots +4.5) We may have missed the best number, but I still see more than enough value with the Pats at +4.5 to back them. I think a lot of people have really fallen in love with this Chargers team and at the same time don't trust this New England team. The Pats are just 3-4 going into Week 8 with two of their wins coming against the Jets and the other against the Texans. With that said, they are dangerously close to being 6-1. They had 1st and 10 at the Dolphins 11 yard line down 16-17 and fumbled the ball with just minutes to play. They were a missed 56 yard FG away from being up 20-19 on TB with less than a minute to play. They were up 21-20 on Dallas with the ball and 2:34 on the clock and threw a pick-six. They get a 75-yard TD on their next series to lead 29-26, only to let the Cowboys get a FG and then go on to lose in OT. Even in their 28-13 loss to the Saints they outgained NO 300-252. As for the Chargers, they are a good team, but I don't think they are as good as what people think. They were lucky to win that game at KC in Week 3 and somehow they get that 47-42 win over the Browns after trailing by 14 in the 2nd half. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with LA is their defense and the inability it has at stopping the run. No body is better at exploiting a team's weakness than Belichick and there is a massive mismatch in this game in favor of the Pat's O-line and the Chargers defensive front (the front 7 for LA is awful outside of Bosa). I also like Belichick and his defense to make things a little difficult on Justin Herbert. If you remember last year when these two teams played, Herbert was a mere 26 of 53 for 209 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs in a 45-0 Pats win. Give me New England +4.5! |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Seahawks -3) Maybe I'm not giving this Jags team enough respect, but I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Seahawks. Everyone has kind of written off Seattle, at least until they get Russell Wilson back at quarterback. It's going to be an uphill climb, but the Seahawks aren't out of the playoff picture just yet. You have to believe we are going to get their best effort in this game. They have to beat Jacksonville or their season is over. Geno Smith isn't Russell Wilson, but there's a lot worst backup QBs in this league. He hasn't done anything special, but in the 3 games (2 starts) he's been up against some pretty good defenses, at least in being able to pressure the QB, in the Rams, Steelers and Saints. This Jacksonville defense is giving up 28.7 ppg, 412 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. Yes the Jags are off a bye, but outside of beating a bad Dolphins team in London a couple weeks ago, what has this team done to make you think they can across the country to one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and get a win (that's basically what you are saying if you take the +3). Not to mention, they got to do that with a head coach in Urban Meyer who is clueless to how this all works at the NFL level. Give me the Seahawks -3! |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Steelers v. Browns -3.5 | 15-10 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 37 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Browns -3.5) I'm going to take the Cleveland Browns as a -3.5 point home favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I just feel like the number here is way too low. I just think all the questions around this Browns team with their lengthy injury report and how much the offensive struggled in last week's game against the Broncos, has Cleveland way undervalued going into this matchup. There's no definite word out there on Browns starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, but when he was asked this week about his non throwing shoulder, he said it was feeling a lot better and there's absolutely a chance he plays. Even if he doesn't play, I don't feel the drop off to backup Case Keenum is all that much. Keenum didn't wow us in his start vs Denver, but he wasn't horrible. Most importantly he took care of the football with no turnovers. Cleveland is also optimistic that they will have stud running back Nick Chubb back, though I don't think they are in terrible hands if they have to go with D'Ernest Johnson after watching how hard this guy ran it last week. Johnson carried it 22 times for 146 yards and the Broncos couldn't stop him knowing he was getting the ball. I just think that regardless if Mayfield and Chubb suit up, this Browns team will be able to do some things offensively at home against this Steelers defense. Everyone loves to praise this Pittsburgh defense, but it's not been as elite as what people think. They are giving up 5.8 yards/play and facing a Browns offense that averages 6.3 yards/play. They are also middle of the back vs the run, giving up 4.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, I don't trust Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense to do anything against this Browns defense. Pittsburgh only averages 5.3 yards/play and that drops to 4.9 yards/play on the road. Cleveland only gives up 5.3 yards/play and a mere 4.5 yards/play at home. I just think the Browns have the edge on both sides of the ball in this game and this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Keep in mind the Steelers were a 6.5-point dog at Buffalo and 6-point dog at Green Bay. Two teams I rate very closely to Cleveland at this point in the season. Give me the Browns -3.5! |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Lions | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 68 h 51 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Eagles -3.5) I really like the Eagles at this price and I love the situation that this game falls in. Every one has thrown Philadelphia under the bus after their 2-5 start. So much so that the betting public is wanting to play the Lions in this game as a mere 3.5-point dog. The one thing that people can use to convince themselves that Detroit is the play, is the fact that the Lions play hard and it's got them to keep some games closer than expected. I think in any sport, bad teams who play hard can do that, largely because the opponent doesn't bring their 'A' game against them. I got to believe that even at 2-5, the Eagles aren't quite to the breaking point of giving up on their season. While the top 5 teams all look great in the NFC, it's really a mixed bag after that. It's anyone's game for those final two wild card spots. I just think if the Eagles come to play, they can not only win this game, but win it going away. Keep in mind the Eagles have just gone through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule playing @ Dallas, home vs KC, @ Carolina, home vs TB and @ Las Vegas. I also wonder just how much fight the Lions are going to have this week. Detroit just put everything they had into beating the Rams last week, as they really wanted to get Goff a win vs his old team. Give me the Eagles -3.5! |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Packers/Cardinals TNF NO-BRAINER (Over 49.5) I like the OVER 49.5 in Thursday's big NFC showdown between the Packers and Cardinals. This game lost a lot of its luster when the news broke that Green Bay was going to be without top wideout Davante Adams and one of their other top receivers in Allen Lazard. It definitely makes life a little harder on Green Bay's offense to not have Adams, but I don't think it's going to result in the Packers not being able to move the ball. Last I checked they still have Aaron Rodgers and I got a pretty good feeling he's going to find a way to move the chains. You also got to factor in that Green Bay should be able to establish the run in this game. The Cardinals run defense has not been very good this year. They are giving up 5.0 yards/carry. Even without Adams and Lazard, you can bet the Cardinals are going to be respecting the pass, which I think is going to allow GB to get the run game establish and allow Rodgers to make plays in play action. On the flip side this, I got zero faith that this Packers defense can slow down this Arizona offense. Last week's 24-10 win over Washington might have been the flukiest win of the season for a team. The Packers somehow managed to hold the Football team to 10 points with Washington racking up 430 total yards and getting the ball inside the Packers 30-yard line 5 times and not punting once the entire game. Give me the OVER 49.5! |
|||||||
10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
40* (NF) - Saints/Seahawks MNF Vegas Insider (Seahawks +4) I like the Seahawks as a 4-point home dog against the Saints on Monday Night Football. I just don't think New Orleans should be favored by more than a field goal in this game. Seattle is just getting way undervalued right now because of the injury to Russell Wilson. We saw it last week in prime time, as the Seahawks went off as a 5.5-point dog at Pittsburgh. They wound up losing the game, but covered in a 20-23 defeat. A game they were only outgained 309 to 345. I just don't see a lot of difference in the Steelers and the Saints. Both of those teams have not looked very good offensively and both rely a ton on their defense. I know the Seattle defense isn't great, but the biggest thing they have struggled with is stopping teams that can throw the ball efficiently. That's not the strength of this Saints offense. The most yards New Orleans has had passing in any game was 271 and that was against the Football Team. They have had 235 or fewer in every other game. The weather should also help the Seahawks defense, as it's expected to be an awful night in Seattle with a near 100% chance of rain and winds pushing 20 mph. I think Geno Smith can do enough in what probably ends up being a very low scoring game to keep Seattle within a field goal and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Give me the Seahawks +4! |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bears +13 v. Bucs | 3-38 | Loss | -118 | 72 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bears +13) I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 13-point road dog against the Bucs. We saw it last year with the Chiefs after their SB win, the books just got tired of people winning money on them and they started to inflate their spreads by what felt like more than a FG per game. I think we are seeing the same thing with Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs are just 2-4 ATS to start the year and both of their covers were a bit fortunate. They won 48-25 against the Falcons as a 13-point favorite after going into the 4th quarter leading by a score of just 28-25. They also covered double-digits against the Dolphins where they only led 24-17 going into the 4th quarter. Chicago isn't a great team, but they are a heck of a lot better than the Falcons and Dolphins, yet they are being priced the same. I know Fields hasn't been the guy we thought we were going to get after his great preseason performances, but some of that in my opinion is coaching. While I'm not banking on anything, I do think there's reason to be optimistic he can get something going against this banged up Bucs secondary. The other big thing for me, is I think Chicago's got a very underrated defense. Since giving up 34 in their opener to the Rams, they haven't allowed more than 30 in their last 5 games. Last week they held Green Bay to just 24 points and Aaron Rodgers and that Packers pass attack had just 169 thru the air. Tom Brady is great, but he is going to have to make it work in this game without two of his best options in tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide out Antonio Brown. Give me the Bears +13! |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Panthers -3 v. Giants | 3-25 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3) I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 3-point road favorite against the New York Giants in Week 7 of the NFL. Even after that tough loss we took with the Panthers in last week's OT loss at home to the Vikings, I'm not going to let that deter me from backing this team laying just a field goal against a bad Giants team that appears to be getting worse and worse as the season progresses. I know this is going to be a big public play with everyone looking to fade the Giants right now, but we have seen a number of these short road favorites cover in recent weeks. I just think more than anything, we are getting value with the Panthers because of the fact that they come into this game having lost and failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. Sam Darnold has been a big reason why Carolina has seen their season to a complete 180 flip after their 3-0 start. After throwing just 1 interception in that perfect 3-0 start to the season, Darnold has thrown 6 picks in the last 3 games. Panthers head coach Matt Rhule appears to have had enough of trying to let the offense rely on the arm of Darnold. After the loss to the Vikings, Rhule came out and said the offense is going to have a vastly different look and is going to focus everything around the run game. It's up in the air if this plan of attack can work long-term without Christian McCaffrey as the lead back, but I do think it's the right game plan against the Giants. In New York's last 3 games, they have allowed an average of 167.3 rushing yards/game. I also think you got to look at how much the Giants offense is struggling to score. New York can't run the ball and Daniel Jones looks to be in over his head with all the injuries the Giants have around him on offense. Highly unlikely that Saquon Barkley will be back for this game, they also figure to be missing talented rookie wide out Kadarius Toney. Two other wide outs, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton are also both question. It's not just the skill players, they just lost starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and are now down three of their Week 1 starters on the offensive line, as starting guard Shane Lemieux and center Nick Gates are likely out for the year. This just feels to me like the perfect get right spot for Carolina and we are getting them at quite the discount. Give me the Panthers -3! |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans OVER 57 | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57) We didn't get their with the Chiefs OVER last week, as KC's defense played it's best game of the year. The Chiefs held Washington scoreless in the 2nd half and to just 13 points for the game. While I would expect that KC defense to not be as bad as it was to start the year, let's not forget who they were playing. Washington is a complete mess right now. I just don't see a scenario in this game where the Chiefs are able to contain Derek Henry for the Titans. KC has one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up 133 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. Tennessee is going to be in 2nd and short all game long. On the flip side of this, the Chiefs offense should be in for a field day as well. While Patrick Mahomes and that KC offense hasn't quite looked as good as what we expected to see, they are still an elite offensive team. They are scoring 30.8 ppg, putting up 434 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play. Mahomes and that Chiefs offense will be up against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 276 passing yards/game and 7.7 passing yards per attempt. That's with playing half of their games against the Jags, Jets and Colts. They gave up 280 to Kyler Murray, 320 to Russell Wilson and 335 to Josh Allen. Mahomes has thrown for 740 yards and 6 TDs in his last 2 starts vs the Titans. Play the OVER 57! |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Jets v. Patriots -6.5 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 68 h 15 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Patriots -6.5) I was considering the Pats at -7, but was hoping this thing would drop to 6.5 at some point during the week and it did. I just think that because the Patriots come into this game at 2-4 there's value on them right now. NE has not been as bad as their record. The only game they lost that they didn't have a legit shot at winning is their Week 3 game against the Saints. They lost by 1-point against the Dolphins where they fumbled the game away, lost by 2 at home to the Bucs where they missed a late FG and just lost 29-35 at home in OT to the Cowboys. One of their two wins came against these Jets, which they won going away 25-6. As he often does, Bill Belichick devised a game plan that made life miserable for a rookie quarterback. Zach Wilson completed just 19 of 33 attempts for 210 yards and 0 TD passes to 4 interceptions. It's not going to be any easier the second time around, especially on the road against a Pats team that will be all in to get back in the win column this week. Give me the Patriots -6.5! |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 16 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Bengals/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +6.5) I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Ravens. I just think when a team everyone expects to be good backs it up with their record, they really become a public play. That definitely feels like the case with Baltimore, who are 5-1 and own the best record in the AFC. This is a good Ravens team. However, they are very lucky to be 5-1. If the Chiefs don't fumble in the final minutes, they are going to have a chip shot field goal to win that game. Baltimore also needed the longest field goal in NFL history to beat the Lions and trailed 25-9 in the 2nd half of a 31-25 OT win against the Colts at home. On the flip side of things, Cincinnati comes in at 4-2 and are one of the big surprises early on this season. I just don't think the Bengals hot start is a fluke. They have a great quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is on the verge of being an elite starter in this league. They also got a very underrated defense. Cincinnati isn't just good enough to keep this game within a TD, they can definitely win this game outright. This line to me should be more like Baltimore -3. You don't get this much value in the NFL often. Give me the Bengals +6.5! |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Broncos/Browns TNF NO-BRAINER (Under 41) This is a game that I planned on just staying away from with all the big injuries to Cleveland, as I just didn't think there was enough value with Denver at less than a field goal (do I like the Broncos on a 6-pt teaser). That was until I saw the expected weather conditions for this game. It's expected to be very windy in Cleveland on Thursday. They are calling for consistent winds north of 20 mph with gusts pushing 30 mph. You just can't throw the ball like you normally would when it's this windy and it can turn what would be easy field goals into 50/50 propositions. It was already going to be a tall task for the Browns offense in this game. With Baker Mayfield sidelined, they are starting Case Keenum at quarterback. Both of their top two backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are out. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are both questionable, as are both starting offensive tackles. The good news is the Browns should be fine defensively in this one. I know they have been torched the last two weeks by the Chargers and Cardinals, but those are two of the top offensive teams in the NFL. Denver struggles to just put 20 points on the scoreboard. They are averaging 21.0 ppg and that's with 3 games against the Giants, Jags and Jets. They are also a poor running team, which will make it that much harder on them with the poor throwing conditions. Give me the UNDER 41. |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Bills -6 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Bills/Titans MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Bills -6) I'll be the first to admit that I thought Buffalo wasn't as good as everyone was saying coming into the 2021 season. I was wrong. The Bills not only look like the best team in the AFC, but maybe the best team in the league. I know the Cardinals hold that claim after their 6-0 start, but let's forget the Bills only loss of the season came in Week 1, where they fell 16-23 at home to the Steelers. A loss is a loss, but it didn't feel like Pittsburgh was the better team on that day. Buffalo was up 10-0 at the half with the Steelers doing next to nothing on offense. They were still up 10-6 in the 4th quarter before they turned it over on downs, which led to a short field and a field goal. Next time they have the ball they get a punt blocked that was returned for a TD. Since that loss the Bills have demolished every team that has got in their way, outscoring opponents in their 4-game win streak 39.0 to 10.3! That includes last week's 38-20 beatdown of the Chiefs on the road. *The only thing that scares me is the Bills having a letdown after that win over KC. It clearly was a game that meant a lot to them after the Chiefs knocked beat them in last year's AFC Championship Game. There is reason to believe that Buffalo will show up. One, it's Monday Night Football with all the eyes on you. The other is revenge. Last year, the Bills had their 4-0 start to the season put to an end in an embarrassing 42-16 loss at Tennessee. A game many of you will remember had that epic stiff arm by Henry against Josh Norman. Henry is always scary to bet against, as he just take over a game, but I'm just not sold on this Titans team. They have a MASSIVE list of injuries and their 3 wins were against the Seahawks, Colts and Jags. They got destroyed Week 1 at home by the Cardinals 38-13 and have that shocking lost to the Jets back in Week 4. Give me the Bills -6! |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Seahawks +5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Seahawks/Steelers SNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +5) I absolutely love the Seahawks as a 5-point rod dog against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Everyone is writing off Seattle after the injury to Russell Wilson. The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with betting this team, even against an uninspiring Steelers team. I'm not going to sit here and say that backup Geno Smith is anywhere close to as good as Wilson, but there's a lot to like about how well Smith played in relief of Wilson against the Rams last week. He should be even better with a full week of prep. You also got to factor in how tough it can be for a team like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown with how much they struggle to score on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 18.8 ppg. The only teams with a worse scoring offense are the Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Texans and Jaguars. It's also an offense that is without their top wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster and has a couple of other wide outs in Chase Claypool and James Washington listed as questionable. Pittsburgh's also got a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. Give me the Seahawks +5! |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -3.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -101 | 90 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Broncos -3.5) I'll lay the 3.5 with Denver at home against the Raiders on Sunday. I just think this Las Vegas team is in a really bad place with what's transpired over the last week with watching their head coach Jon Gruden basically be forced into resigning. It's just a bad situation for a team that came into this season with expectations of at least making the playoffs. We have seen the offense take a massive step back the last couple of weeks and now they have to try to figure out on the fly how to go forward without their play caller in Gruden. Say what you want about Gruden as a head coach, the guy is a good offensive play caller. Making matters even worse is the Raiders are going up against a pretty good Broncos defense. Now you can't get too carried away with the numbers given who Denver has played, but you also can't ignore the fact that they are 3rd in the NFL right now giving up just 292.4 ypg. They also rank in the Top 10 in the NFL vs both the run and the pass. I can assure you that the Broncos will not in the least bit feel bad about beating up on the Raiders when they are down. These two teams despise each other. I'm not wild about the Denver offense, but I would much rather have the Broncos offense than the Raiders defense. Denver should do more than enough to get the win and cover at home. Give me the Broncos -3.5! |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR (Browns -2.5) I think we are getting a gift here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Cardinals. Arizona might be the only team left in the NFL with an undefeated record, but they are nowhere close to the best team in the league. They should have lost to the Vikings at home in Week 2, caught the Rams in a massive letdown spot off their big win over Tom Brady and the Bucs and likely lose last week to the 49ers if San Francisco has Jimmy G at quarterback. I think if Arizona is simply 4-1 instead of 5-0, they wouldn't be getting near the respect they are getting in this game. I I was on the Browns in last week’s brutal loss at the Chargers where they dominated LA for over half of that game. If anything that loss makes me like Cleveland even more in this spot, as they are going to be highly motivated to rebound at home. I also like the matchup. I think the biggest thing you got to look at with the Browns is whether or not the opposing team can stop the run. Arizona has struggled in that area of the game, Cardinals rank 28th against the run giving up 139.0 ypg and are giving up 5.4 yards/carry, which ranks 31st in the league. I also still think this Browns defense is one of the better units in the league and are well suited to slow down Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense. You also have to keep in mind that Murray is dealing with an arm injury. He did not look like his old self in last week's game against the 49ers and they need him to be great to even have a shot in this game. Give me Cleveland -2.5! |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 55.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5) I don't care what the number is, I want to be on the OVER in Chiefs' games as much as possible. At least until that defense shows us any sort of inkling that they can stop the opposing team from moving the ball up and down the field. There's just not much to like with what you have seen from that KC defense. They don't have the size up front to keep teams from running the ball, they don't tackle great and they get zero pass rush. I don't care if you think Washington's offense is good or not. They are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. Just look at what the Eagles did against this KC defense a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs weren't able to force a single punt out of Philly and that same Eagles offense managed just 273 yards last week against the Panthers (punted 5 times and had a safety in just the 1st half). On the flip side of this, I still think Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is one of the best in the league. They have just had to press so much on offense against good teams because of how bad the defense has been, they haven't quite performed up to potential. Washington isn't good enough on defense to slow this offense down. They have given up 43 to the Bills, 30 to the Falcons and 33 to the Saints in their last 3 games. KC is going to score 30 and maybe even into the 40s. I think Washington also has a good shot here to put up close to 30 points. Give me the OVER 55.5! |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Vikings v. Panthers +1 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 95 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER (Panthers +1) I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 1-point home dog against the Minnesota Vikings. I think we are seeing some value with Carolina, as I think they should be -2.5 at home. Big reason I think we are getting value with the Panthers is last week's horrific 2nd half against the Eagles. Carolina couldn't have looked any better in the 1st half of that game. If they just have a little bit of ball skills on that fumble they botched in the end zone, they probably win that game and cover. Instead it was just a safety and the offense fell apart in the 2nd half. I think losing that game and Sam Darnold kind of reverting back to his old ways with the Jets has really reversed how people view this team. They no longer see them as a legit playoff contender. I think that's a mistake and I think the Panthers respond in a big way. I really don't have a lot of concerns with the Carolina defense. They did their part once again, holding the Eagles to just 273 total yards and dominating the time of possession by more than 10 minutes. Offensively, Darnold isn't as bad as what he showed in the 2nd half of that game against the Eagles and let's not forget the Panthers offense was without their best player in Christian McCaffrey. He was close to returning for that game and as long as there are no setbacks in practice, he will be on the field Sunday. As for the Vikings, I just don't think there as good as what people think. Sure they have had a couple close games not go their way, but the fact of the matter is this team continues to find ways to lose games. They needed a last second field goal after blowing a 16-6 lead in the final 5 minutes against the winless Lions at home. That comes after a week where the offense couldn't do anything at home against the Browns. Vikings are just 3-7 ATS last 10 off a home win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a close win by 6 points or less. Panthers have covered 10 of their last 15 with a line of +3 to -3 and are 5-1 ATS last 3 years off a upset loss as a home favorite. Give me Carolina +1! |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Packers -4 v. Bears | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 51 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Big Money VEGAS INSIDER (Packers -4) I can't help myself here but to lay the 4-points on the road with the Packers. I know it's not wise to lay points on the road in division games, but I just don't see these two teams being anywhere close in terms of talent. I could be dead wrong here, but I got a pretty good feeling that the Bears holding the Raiders to just 9 points and 252 total yards last week was more a result of the news surrounding Gruden than it was this Chicago defense. I also think with the Bears defense, they are much better suited to stop teams that want to run the ball. They just don't have that great of talent in the secondary and are tasked in this game with going up against one of the best QBs in the league in Aaron Rodgers. I know Green Bay isn't exactly blowing teams out, but I've really liked what I've seen out of Aaron Rodgers early on. He looks to be 100% locked in and when he's going well this team is tough to beat. You also have to factor in just how bad this Bears offense has been since Justin Fields became the starter. It's a bit comical how scared Chicago is of letting Fields throw the ball. How in the world is he going to do enough here to keep pace with Rodgers and that Packers offense? I don't see it. Give me Green Bay -4! |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens OVER 51.5 | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total DESTROYER (OVER 51.5) I see some value with the OVER 51.5 in Sunday's big AFC showdown between the Ravens and Chargers. These two teams have shown that they can light up the scoreboard. The Chargers have scored at least 28 points in each of their last 3 games and the Ravens just put up 31 last week against the Colts. The even bigger thing for me is how these two teams matchup. While Lamar Jackson has been throwing it all over his last two opponents (758 yards, including 442 last week against the Colts), Baltimore figures to be much more balanced in this game. The Chargers are the worst team in the league against the run. Not only are they giving up a league worst 157.6 ypg (12.4 ypg more than the next closest team), they are giving up a league worst 5.6 yards/carry. As for the Ravens offense, they have looked a little better here of late, giving up just 16.3 ppg over their last 3, it's come against the Lions, Broncos and Colts. It's also worth noting they were lucky to only give up 25 to Indy. The Colts had over 500 yards of offense with 390 thru the air. I just don't see them being able to contain Justin Herbert and this explosive Chargers offense. I think there's a really good chance that we could see both teams go for 30+ points and all we need is for something like 28-24 to cash a winning ticket. Give me the OVER 51.5! |
|||||||
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Bucs/Eagles MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) I love the OVER 52 in tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Eagles. I already think there's an edge to the OVER in these Thursday games, but this matchup we have in Week 6 has shootout written all over it. I'm extremely confident that Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to score and score a lot. Not only do they have the best to ever do it at quarterback, but they got one of the best set of skill players in the league. I also think we have seen when Tampa Bay gets matched up with a poor defense they aren't afraid to run it up. They put up 48 on the Falcons and 45 last week against the Dolphins. Philly's defense isn't horrible, but their strength is their defensive line and it's just not going to be a big factor in this game. Not only do the Bucs have a pretty good offensive line, few are better than Brady at getting it to the open guy before the pressure gets home. Eaglys have faced two offenses that are similar in the Cowboys and Chiefs. Both Dallas and Kansas City did whatever they wanted. Cowboys put up 41 and the Chiefs scored 42. Would not shock me at all if TB had 40+ in this game. The other big key here is the Bucs aren't an elite defense by any means. I know they only gave up 17 in each of their last two games, but that was against two bad offenses. One led by a rookie in Mac Jones and the other a subpar veteran in Jacoby Brissett. Jalen Hurts should be able to make some plays and I feel pretty good about the Eagles scoring at least 24 in this one. Give me the OVER 52! |
|||||||
10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Colts/Ravens MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 46.5) I will take my chances with the UNDER 46.5 between the Ravens and Colts on Monday Night Football. Both offense figure to have a hard time putting up points on the board. Indy's offense is stuck in neutral with Carson Wentz. The Colts are averaging just 20.8 ppg, 326 ypg and 5.2 yard/play. Numbers that really look bad when you consider the 4 opponents they have played are giving up on average 26.3 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. Don't expect this Colts offense to figure it out on the road against a strong Ravens defense. Last two times out, Baltimore has held the Lions to 17 and the Broncos to 7. On the flip side of this, the Colts defense is well suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. The biggest thing to slowing down Baltimore is keeping Jackson from running wild. Colts are built to do that. Indy comes in giving up just 331 ypg. These two teams played last year and combined for just 34 points with a total of 47.5. UNDER has cashed in 9 of Wentz's last 14 starts. UNDER is also 19-5 in the Ravens last 14 at home off a win by 14 or more and 29-15 in Indy's last 44 off a win as a road dog. Give me the UNDER 46.5! |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 49 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Bills/Chiefs SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -2.5) I can't believe we are getting the Chiefs at less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I know there's a lot of people concerned with what they have seen out of KC so far, especially on the defensive side of the ball. As bad as the defense has been and it's been downright awful, the Chiefs are a couple plays away from being 4-0 and it's not like they have played a cupcake schedule. That defense could be getting back one of their top pass rushers in Frank Clark and all signs point to linebacker Willie Gay making his first start after starting the season on IR with a toe injury. Gay is a guy that I think can really have an impact. Clark can too, but you never know what you are going to get from him. Gay has great sideline to sideline speed and should help a lot against the run. He's also the guy that was suppose to have the green dot on his helmet. No question there's been a lack of communication on that side without him. I also think the defense has been so bad, it has people overlooking just how good the offense has been. KC has had the fewest amount of drives of any team in the league and are T-2nd in scoring at 33.5 ppg. It's only going to get better. They got 3 talented rookie offensive linemen and 5 all new starters on the o-line. That unit is going to just get better and better as they play more together. The Chiefs also added Josh Gordon. Not much has been made of this. Probably because no one thinks Gordon will last long, but he came in to the team in INCREDIBLE shape and has already formed a chemistry with Mahomes. One last thing on the Bills. This Chiefs defense is built to play from ahead and are much better suited to defend the pass than they are the run. I'm not saying they are a great pass defense, but they can get some stops if teams try to attack them thru the air. All Buffalo wants to do is throw the football. I think it's why it's been a really tough matchup for them. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 44 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44) I'm going the OVER 44 in Sunday's game between the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders. I see this game getting into the 50s without much problem. I don't know if it's the lack of faith in this Bears offense or how bad the Raiders' offense looked on MNF against the Chargers, but this total is too low. One thing that I think people are really concerned with when it comes to Chicago's offense is the loss of running back David Montgomery. He's really been the focal point of their offense to this point. I just don't think there's a huge drop off with backup Damien Williams. He had 55 yards and a score on just 8 attempts last week against the Lions. The other big thing is who will be the QB for Chicago. It could be Justin Fields or it might be Andy Dalton. It doesn't really matter to me. I think Fields is growing more and more comfortable with each start and Dalton isn't as bad as people think. We have also seen the offense look instantly better once head coach Matt Nagy gave up play calling duties. Either way, I think this is a plus matchup for the Bears offense against this Raiders defense. Las Vegas gave up 17 to a hopeless Steelers offense and 28 to the Dolphins with backup Jacoby Brissett at QB. Chicago is going to have their chances to put points on the board. Let's also not forget that this is a bit of a tough spot for the Raiders playing on short rest after their game on MNF with the Chargers. I think the lack of rest hurts the defense more than anything. On the flip side of this, I don't think the Bears defense is anything close to as good as what people think. Chicago has got old and slow on the defensive side of the ball. They still got some decent pass rushers, but their secondary is awful and they may be without one of their top interior linemen in Akiem Hicks. A guy that would have a plus matchup here against the weak interior line of the Raiders. Prior to laying an egg against the Chargers, Derek Carr was lighting up secondaries. Las Vegas had scored 33 against the Ravens, 26 against the Steelers and 31 vs the Dolphins. I think Carr is going to have a huge bounceback game here and guide the Raiders to 30+ points. I probably lay it with Las Vegas if I had to play the side, but I don't see near the value in the number as I do with the total. Give me the OVER 44! |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Browns +122 v. Chargers | 42-47 | Loss | -100 | 72 h 8 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Vegas Money Line PLAY OF THE WEEK (Browns +122) I'm going to roll the dice with the Browns on the money line, as they go on the road to face a red-hot Chargers team. I like Justin Herbert and this LA squad, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here. They upset the Chiefs 30-24 as a 7-point dog in Week 3 and then roll the Raiders 28-14 on MNF in Week 4. On the flip side of this, there's a lot of concern and negativity with Cleveland right now. The Browns are coming off an uninspiring 14-7 win at Minnesota, news came out that Baker Mayfield is playing with a partially torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and there's a number of big names for that Cleveland team on the injury report. I actually see the 14-7 win as a positive. Not a lot of teams could bring their "C" game and go on the road and beat a desperate and good Vikings team. I think the Mayfield injury is being a bit overblown. He didn't play well vs Minnesota, but he did throw it 33 times. As for all the injuries, I think most of that is precautionary and we will see most of them suit up. The other huge thing for me is how these two teams matchup. The Browns have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and when they have been paired against a good o-line, teams have been able to move the ball. Dallas has 198 rushing yards and they gave up 186 to the Chiefs. They are allowing 5.3 yards/carry on the season. As good as Herbert has been, this Cleveland defense is really good. They are giving up just 3.1 yards/rush, which tells you they are strong against the run and opposing QBs are completing just 57.7% of their attempts against them. A remarkable stat given they have played Mahomes, Prescott and Cousins. Give me the Browns +122! |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers -1 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -1) Not only is Denver a team that I think is overrated, I also feel like we are in a great buy low spot with the Steelers. Pittsburgh might not be a playoff team, but they aren't as bad as what the media is making them out to be. There's clearly concern with Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but we know they got a defense that carry them if they just get a few kinks worked out. I think Pittsburgh defense is going to dominate this game right from the start. It doesn't really matter to me if it's Bridgewater or Drew Lock. Denver is down big at wide receiver with KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy both on IR. Those were their two speed threats that could really stretch the defense. They also are hurting on the o-line. Both starting guards are questionable to play. If that unit thought it was tough slowing down that Ravens pass rush, they are in big trouble here against T.J. Watt and the Steelers front. The other big thing you have to keep in mind with this Steelers defense is they have faced 4 of the better QBs in the league in Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers. The injuries are also starting to mount up on defense. The most recent being stud rookie corner Pat Surtain II, who left their last game with a chest injury. Denver's already without one of their top corners in Ronald Darby, as well as pass rusher Bradley Chubb and linebacker Josey Jewel. It's also worth noting that backup linebackers Andre Mintz and Baron Browning are both questionable. They already got 4 guys at linebacker on IR. They are really on thin ice at this position. I'm not expecting a ton out of Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but they should benefit in this game from great field position. I think they do more than enough to win this game. Give me Pittsburgh -1! |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Eagles v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 23 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Eagles/Panthers NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3.5) I love the Panthers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Eagles. I've been on this Carolina team quite a bit early in the year and they have got off to a great start at 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. They did fail to cover last week on the road in a 28-36 loss to Dallas, but that's nothing to change how you view this Panthers team. I really think Carolina is a playoff team, especially with what they have done to sure up that secondary. The Eagles aren't close to being a playoff team. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with their only win and cover coming in a Week 1 win over a bad Falcons team. Jalen Hurts has been impressive at times, but they get no production out of their backs and their weapons at receiver aren't great. The defense also has holes all over it. Panthers have an elite defense and a much-improved offense under former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. Would love it if McCaffrey played, but they don't need him to move the ball against this Eagles team. Give me Carolina -3.5! |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Rams -1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Rams/Seahawks TNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -1.5) I will take my chances here with the Rams laying less than a field goal on the road against the Seahawks. I played and lost with the Rams last week, as they got embarrassed on their home field by the Cardinals. Turns out the bounce back from that emotional win over the Bucs was a little tougher than anticipated. I think there can be some value with teams the game after a letdown spot. Not only are we not going to get as inflated a number to bet into, we should also get a max effort from that team. That's really the handicap for me here, because I don't think it's close in terms of talent when you look up and down the roster of these two teams. Seattle's got a great offense led by Russell Wilson, but their defense is as bad as it gets. Everyone keeps talking about how bad the Chiefs defense has been. Yet it's the Seahawks who are giving up a league worst 444.5 ypg. A pretty staggering number when you consider they have exactly went up against an elite offense. Their 4 games have been against the Colts, Titans, Vikings and 49ers. Just to compare, the Chiefs have at least been bad against good offenses, as they have faced the Ravens, Browns, Chargers and Eagles. I think it's pretty safe to say the Rams have an elite offense with Matthew Stafford and it's without question the best offense and quarterback Seattle will have seen so far this year. I just don't see Wilson and that Seahawks offense being able to go score for score with Stafford and the Rams in this one. Give me the Rams -1.5! |
|||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Raiders/Chargers MNF Vegas Insider TOP PLAY (Over 51.5) I think the game itself is a coin flip, and there's just no value with the spread at Chargers -3. Good news is I do think we are getting a pretty good price here on the total. I see both offenses being able to move the ball at will in this one and just don't think 51.5 is near enough. These are two of the Top 3 passing offenses in the NFL. Derek Carr and the Raiders lead the league at 379.5 ypg. The next best is Brady and the Bucs at 327.5 ypg. The Chargers are 3rd at 307.3 ypg. I know we are just 3 games into the season, but there's no reason to doubt the big offensive numbers by Carr and the Raiders. It's not like they have paid cupcakes. They have played one of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers (on the road) and two above average units in the Ravens and Dolphins. Carr threw for 382 yards on 28 of 37 passing against Pittsburgh. In the Steelers 3 other games they have held Josh Allen to 270 yards, Joe Burrow to 172 and Aaron Rodgers to 248. While it's a little different story for Herbert and the Chargers, who have faced 3 of the worst defenses in the Football Team, Cowboys and Chiefs, they pass the eye test for me. Herbert is a top tier QB in this league. I also think they are facing another bad defense in the Raiders. Las Vegas is giving up just 24.0 ppg, but it's come against teams who on the season only average 19.5 ppg. I think them giving up 28 points at home to the Dolphins with a backup QB says a lot. They also gave up 330 yards to that awful Steelers offense. Herbert is by far the best QB they have faced in terms of passing and it's not really close. I think you can't ignore last year's games between these two teams. Both games finished with a combined score of 57 points. OVER is 6-2 in the Raiders last 8 on the road and 8-1 in their last 9 as a dog. Give me the OVER 51.5! |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Ravens +1 v. Broncos | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Situational No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR (Ravens +1) I will gladly take my chances with the Ravens as a road dog against the Broncos. Baltimore was laying more than a field goal in this game before the season started and has completely flipped to the other side, where Denver is a slim 1-point favorite. I'll be the first two admit last week's bet against the Broncos with the Jets was terrible. However, I don't think my mistake was undervaluing Denver. I just put too much faith into that Jets offense. Think about this, the Broncos 3 games this season have seen their defense have to defend Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. Now they have to face one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league in Lamar Jackson. Now I know the Ravens weren't exactly world beaters last week in their crazy 19-17 win over the Lions, where they won the game on a record-setting field goal at the buzzer. However, that was a spot where you would expect Baltimore to not have their best coming off an emotional and thrilling 36-35 win over the Chiefs on SNF the week before. The Broncos being undefeated will more than be enough to get the attention of Baltimore in this game. Not only do I think Denver is a bit overvalued because of their schedule, but the injuries are starting to pile up. Two of their top options at receiver on IR with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. They also could be down both starting offensive guards with Glasgow doubtful and Risner questionable. Defensively they have 3 more key guys on IR in linebackers Bradley Chubb and Josey Jewell and corner Ronald Darby. Give me the Ravens +1! |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Steelers +6.5) I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Pittsburgh catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Packers. Everyone has written off the Steelers after back-to-back ugly home losses to the Raiders and Bengals. It's almost like their Week 1 23-16 win at Buffalo as a 6.5-point dog doesn't exist. There's not many teams I feel better about backing with their backs against the wall as a dog than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is an impressive 37-22 ATS when listed as an underdog since Tomlin took over as head coach and are 28-17 ATS when they are a road dog. Steelers are also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a loss by 10 or more to a division rival. Aside from how good Pittsburgh has been in this spot historically, I also think this is a good spot here to bet against Green Bay off their thrilling win at San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. I'm also not completely sold on this Packers offense. They have not ran the ball well at all, 80 ypg and just 3.4 yards/carry and have not had more than 255 yards passing in any game. I also think you got to keep in mind they just played two awful secondaries in Detroit and San Francisco. This Steelers defense is no joke and are starting to get back to full strength on that side of the ball. I think their ability to defend the pass and put pressure on the QB is going to be huge in this game. I also think they will be able to slow down the Rodgers to Adams connection. Much like we saw in Week 1, when the Saints held Adams to just 5 catches for 56 yards. Adding to this, Pittsburgh is 68-33 (67.3%) ATS last 101 times they have faced a team that averages more than 7 passing yards/attempt. Give me the Steelers +6.5! |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams -4 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Rams -4) I might be walking right into a trap here with the Rams, but there's just no scenario right now that I'm not laying a mere 4-points with LA at home. I definitely think the Cardinals coming into at 3-0 is giving us value. At the same time, I think the public perception is that the Rams are going to come out flat after their huge win over the Bucs. I just think all the talk about how the Rams won't play well after their big win against Brady and Tampa Bay, is going to have them locked in. I think it also helps that LA is at home and this is a division game. It's no secret how good the NFC West is this year. I just don't see the Rams not showing up with their best effort on Sunday. The biggest thing here for me is I don't see how this Arizona defense is going to be able to slow down Matthew Stafford and this Rams offense. LA is averaging 31.7 ppg, 388 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. Keep in mind McVay and the Rams owned the Cardinals when Goff was their quarterback. Kyler Murray on the other hand has had an awful time when matched up with this Rams defense. Murray has started 4 games against LA since coming into the league and the Cardinals are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in those game. The Rams have won those contests by an average scored of 30.2 to 16.5. Murray is averaging just 187 passing yards/game with a mere 5-4 TD-INT ratio. Give me the Rams -4! |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 63 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Jets +7) I know it's asking a lot to put your hard earned money on a team like the Jets, but I just feel like there's just too much value on New York to pass up. This comes from the guy who bet the Jets a +10.5 last week at Denver in a game they lost 26-0 with just 162 total yards of offense. It's just how the NFL works. What it's done is really create a buy low spot on the Jets at home against a mediocre at best Titans team. Let's start off with Tennessee. They come in 2-1, but could and should be 1-2. They got absolutely embarrassed in their opener at home by the Cardinals 13-38. They then somehow beat the Seahawks on the road 33-30 after railing 16-30 in the 4th quarter. I also don't think there's anything to get excited about with last week's 25-16 win over a Colts team that hasn't won a game. The other big thing working against the Titans is injuries. We know for sure they won't have top wide out A.J. Brown and there's a chance they won't have Julio Jones. Running back Derrick Henry is the only other Tennessee player with more than 100 yards receiving. Say what you want about the talent the Jets have on defense, they are playing really hard on that side of the ball and if there's a strength for New York on that side of the ball it's stopping the run. I really think they are going to be able to load the box here and keep Henry in check, which in turn makes you wonder how this Titans team is going to score. Tennessee also has all kinds of guys out on defense and they have not looked good on that side of the ball. I know Zach Wilson has struggled and is playing behind a horrible o-line, but this is a defense he can have some success against. It might not be pretty, but I really like the Jets to find a way to keep this within a touchdown at home on Sunday. Give me New York +7! |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers +4.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4.5-point dog at Dallas on Sunday. It's no secret that the Cowboys are a huge public team. Every amatuer player out there is going to be running to the ticket window to lay the short number with Dallas in this one, especially after just watching them blowout the Eagles at home on Monday Night Football in Week 3. I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Cowboys against a vastly improved Panthers team that comes in at 3-0. One huge factor here that's getting overlooked is the huge rest edge that Carolina has. The Panthers are playing an extra 3 days of rest compared to normal after playing on TNF last week. Dallas on the other hand is playing on 1 less day of rest after playing on MNF. On top of the rest, you also have to factor in the massive edge in coaching Carolina has with Rhule compared to McCarthy. I think the big thing here for a lot of people is they just don't see a world in which the Panthers can go score for score with Dallas. I don't think the Panthers have to score a ton to cover or even win this game. The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league that has excelled against both the run and the pass. They are giving up just 2.6 yards/carry, a mere 146 passing yards/game and lead the league with 14 sacks. It also wouldn't shock me if Sam Darnold and the Panthers offense didn't have a big game in this one. I get the Cowboys are improved defensively, but a lot of that has been their offense playing ball control, something that won't be as easy in this game. Darnold looks like a completely different QB than what we saw with the Jets. I could definitely see him having a big game. Give me the Panthers +4.5! |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Chiefs -7 v. Eagles | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 63 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Big Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Chiefs -7) I know the Chiefs haven't been able to cover the spread, but I'm willing to go down swinging with Patrick Mahomes and this Kansas City team in this spot. It's hard to believe we are even talking about a must-win game in Week 4 with the Chiefs, but with KC sitting at 1-2 they desperately need to win this game. I know the defense has been bad for Kansas City, but as bad as it's been they could still be sitting at 3-0 right now. You also have to keep in mind who the Chiefs have played the first 3 weeks. They have faced 3 of the best offensive teams in the league in the Browns, Ravens and Chargers. The drop off from facing Mayfield, Jackson and Herbert to Hurts is massive. The only team the Eagles have had any kind of success against in their first 3 games is the Falcons. They scored just 11 points at home against the 49ers and 14 of their 21 against the Cowboys came after that game was well out of reach. On the flip side of this, the Eagles just gave up 41 points to the Cowboys with Mike McCarthy doing everything in his power to hold Dallas back. I see no scenario here with Philly holds Mahomes and this Chiefs offense under 30 points and that means they got to score at least 23 here to push at this number. Everyone has been waiting for Kansas City to have that dominating win and I think this is the week they deliver. Give me the Chiefs -7! |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - NFC Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR (Giants +7.5) I absolutely love the Giants as a 7.5-point road dog against the Saints on Sunday. You got everyone wanting to lay the big number here with the Saints in their first game back home and yet we have seen this line drop in favor of the Giants. The smart money is on New York and for good reason. I'm just not buying into the hype with New Orleans. They have been all over the place in their first 3 games. They shocked everyone by embarrassing the Packers in Week 1 playing keep away from Aaron Rodgers, they then get beat badly on the road at Carolina and last week take down Belichick and the Pats 28-13. I get a win is a win, but you can't ignore the fact that the Saints were outgained in that game by New England 300-252. I just don't trust Jameis Winston. He's got an impressive 7-2 TD-INT ratio, but has yet to throw for more than 150 yards in a game this season. Asking a team to cover a 7.5-point spread that has this much trouble moving the ball thru the air is a lot. On the flip side of this, the Giants aren't as bad as their 0-3 record. Everyone talks like they this awful team, yet they are only getting outgained by 24 ypg. The Saints are getting outgained by 70 ypg. Daniel Jones has also been a covering machine in this spot, going 8-3 ATS as a road dog in his NFL career. I know a lot of the games for Winston came with the Bucs, but it's worth noting that he's just 7-14 ATS as a starter when his team is favored and just 4-12 when his team is laying points at home. This has all the makings of one of those games the Giants don't just cover but win outright. Give me New York +7.5! |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 46 | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Jags/Bengals TNF Situational BEST BET (Over 46) I've made quite a bit of money with these Thursday Night Football over plays. These numbers are posted more on what the total should be if both teams were playing on Sunday with a full 6 days of rest between games. Teams just don't play as well defensively when there's only 3 days to not only prepare but to recover physically. Something I believe is much harder for a defensive player than an offensive player. It's not something you can back blindly. I was all over it in Week 2 when that total for Washington/New York jumped from 43 down to 40.5. I didn't take it last week because of the QB situation for the Texans (100% would have been on it if Tyrod Taylor had played). I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 46, especially with this spread where I don't want to take the Jags and at the same time don't feel confident laying 7.5 with the Bengals. We know Cincinnati likes to throw the football with their young stud QB in Joe Burrow. He's completed 71% of his attempts for 640 yards and 7 TDs in his first 3 games. He should have a field day here against a Jags secondary that is giving up 302 ypg, 9.0 yards/attempt and 74.3% completion rate. Keep in mind that's against Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold. The other big positive here for Burrow is this Jags pass rush. It's no secret the Bengals offensive line is weak. Jacksonville has just 4 sacks in 3 games, only the Bucs have fewer with 3. On the flip side of this, I think we see Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense contribue a decent amount in this game. Not only is a plus spot facing a Bengals defense on just 3 days rest, but you have to wonder how long Cincinnati will be locked in if this gets out of control. They just played a huge division game at Pittsburgh and got Aaron Rodgers and company on deck in Week 5. Let's also not forget this Bengals defense gave up 20 points to the Bears and Fields played a decent amount in that game. Give me the OVER 46! |
|||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Eagles/Cowboys MNF Vegas INSIDER (Over 51.5) I'll take my chances with the OVER 51.5 in Monday Night Football. Big NFC East matchup with the Cowboys hosting the Eagles. The OVER has been cashing left and right in these prime time games, outside of the Panthers/Texans game this past Thursday (HOU had backup rookie QB and CAR lost McCaffrey early). I just don't think the number here is enough for this Cowboys team. Dallas without question has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and I just don't think there's a defense out there that can keep them in check. I know they only had 20 points in their win at the Chargers in Week 2, but that was more of them just playing keep away from Herbert and that Chargers offense. I don't think they are going to play conservative here at home against the Eagles. Philly's defense has looked pretty good in their two games, but they have faced Matt Ryan and the Falcons and Jimmy G and the 49ers. The strength of this defense has been their d-line. Not only does Dallas have better weapons in the passing game, they got an o-line that can more than hold their own. If Dak gets time, he will expose this Eagles secondary. On the flip side, I still don't have much faith in this Cowboys defense. Not only are they missing one of their best players in Demarcus Lawrence, they got all kinds of guys out for this game, especially on the d-line. Their depth is really going to be tested in this game. I look for Jalen Hurts to step up and go toe-to-toe with Prescott. I think they number in this game should be pushing 55. Give me the OVER 51.5! |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Packers/49ers SNF MONEY-MAKER (49ers -3.5) I bought this to -3 when I put the play in (can't buy points on the site), but lucky for you this line has dropped down to -3 at most books. I don't think it will matter either way. I'm just don't think this Packers team is as good as what people think. The defense is vulnerable, especially against the run, and the offense is going to have their ups and downs until they get healthy on the offensive line. I give the 49ers a massive edge on both sides of the trenches and we have seen Rodgers struggle to play well when Green Bay goes out west. I see the 49ers putting together a very similar game plan to the Saints, where they just play keep away from Rodgers and the offense with the run game. The betting public won't be able to help themselves with the Packers as a dog, but I got a feeling this game is going to be lopsided the other way. Note that Green Bay is just 9-14 ATS with Rodgers as a starter as a dog and the 49ers are 14-5 SU last 19 at home and have won 23 of their last 27 as a favorite. Give me San Francisco -3.5! |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +2) I will take a shot on the Vikings as a 2-point home dog against the Seahawks on Sunday. The betting public is going to be all over Seattle in this game and the books know it. For them to make the Seahawks less than a field, tells you a lot about how confident they are with Minnesota winning this game. The Vikings are 0-2, but could just as easily be 2-0. They should have won in OT at Cincinnati in Week 1 and had a field goal to win it on the road late at Arizona in Week 2. So not only is Minnesota better than people think, they are going to be a desperate team here to avoid an 0-3 start. You also have to keep in mind the Vikings will be playing their first game at home this year. Minnesota is 35-22 (61%) ATS at home under head coach Mike Zimmer. They are also 20-9 ATS last 29 off a road loss under Zimmer and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a loss by 3-points or less. Give me the Vikings +2! |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bucs/Rams Big Game ATS NO-BRAINER (Rams +1.5) I will take my chances with the Rams as a +1.5 home dog against the Bucs in the most anticipated game of Week 3. While these are two public teams right now, Tampa Bay is right there with the Chiefs as the biggest public teams and they are going to be the one everyone takes, especially with this line. I just think the Rams are primed to win this game at home. LA head coach Sean McVay couldn't have been more excited about getting Matthew Stafford and you can see why after these first two games. This Rams team was pretty potent with Goff, now they are elite. I also still think people are way too high on this Tampa Bay defense after how they dominated the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. That was more of the Chiefs having 2nd and 3rd stringers on the offensive line, many of which were playing out of position. This Bucs secondary is not that good and we have seen them get exposed in the first two games. Tom Brady and the Bucs clearly have a great offense, but this is going to be by far the best defense they have seen this season after playing the Cowboys and Falcons. We also know the one way to get Brady off his game is to get pressure up the middle. No one in the league is better at that than LA's Aaron Donald. I just trust the Rams offense more in this one. Give me Los Angeles +1.5! |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (+10.5) I’m going to take the New York Jets as a 10.5-point road dog against the Denver Broncos. I just think this line is a little out of control. This might be from a casual fans perspective the biggest mismatch on the board Sunday. The Jets are 0-2 and have failed to cover the spread in both games. They looked dreadful last week in a 25-6 loss at home to the Pats. Denver on the other hand is 2-0 and have cashed against the spread in both games. When I look at how these two teams got to where they are, I don’t think New York is as bad as what people think and I don’t think the Broncos are as good as people think. It shouldn’t have surprised anyone how bad the Jets looked last week against the Patriots. That was a matchup nightmare with how Bill Belichick’s mastery of rookie QBs on the defensive side and the fact that you had a desperate and pissed of NE team that was trying to avoid an 0-2 start after giving a game away at home to the Dolphins in Week 1. That game was so lopsided that I think people are completely overlooking how competitive they were in a 14-19 road loss to the Panthers. Now I know it’s only two weeks in, but that Carolina team is the real deal. If there’s a team that surprises and makes the playoffs out of the NFC, my money is on the Panthers. They got a very good defense and are extremely well coached on both sides. I really think the Jets have faced two of the best defensive teams in the league in their first two games. Now I know the Broncos are no pushover defensively, but I don’t think they are on the same level as those two teams. Denver is also down some guys on the defensive side. They lost starting inside linebacker Josey Jewell, one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and one of their top corners in Ronald Darby. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Zack Wilson had a breakout game here. Getting back to Denver being overvalued. I don’t get why everyone is going all in with this team after beating the Giants and Jags. I get both of those were on the road, but they should be 2-0 coming into this game. Anything other than that would be a huge disappointment. They only beat the Giants by 14 and that game was 10-7 less than halfway thru the 3rd quarter. New York had 4 drives end in Broncos territory that resulted in 0 points. Trailing by just 10 late in the 3rd, they fumbled on 1st and 10 from the Denver 22. The next drive they had 1st and Goal from the 7 and gained 1 yard before turning it over on downs. Very next series they had 1st and 10 from the Den 16 and again turned it over on downs. I know the Jags had a 102 yard KO return for a TD late in the 4th to only lost by a final score of 23-13, but I feel pretty confident saying Jacksonville is the worst team in the league. Let’s not also forget they only led 10-7 at the half of that game. If the Broncos are a real playoff contender, that should have been even more lopsided than it was. Last thing I want to point out is I think the perception is the Jets are an awful defensive team, but the numbers don’t support that. Not many teams only give up 25 points when their offense turns it over 4 times. Pats scored two TDs and a FG on 3 of those turnovers. I think people would be shocked to see that the Jets outgained NE 336 to 260 in that game. No way I’m passing up on the value we are getting at 10.5 with the spread, but I truly believe New York can win this game outright if Wilson takes care of the ball. Give me the Jets +10.5. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +8 v. Bills | 21-43 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Football Team +8) I will gladly take the 8-points with the Football Team on the road against the Bills. I came into this season thinking Buffalo was one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and they certainly haven't looked like an elite team early on. They lost Week 1 at home to a Steelers team that has no offense and while they did win 35-0 last week at Miami, that game was not near as close as the final score would indicate. Not to mention the Dolphins were behind the 8-ball early in that game with Tua leaving with an injury. Washington was a team a lot of people were high on coming into the season. Even though they are 1-1 with their only loss to the Chargers, it's like everyone has flipped on this team and think they aren't a serious contender anymore in the NFC East. I just think it has the Football Team way undervalued here against a Bills team that just hasn't played great. One thing that I keep hearing is how this Washington defense isn't any good. Yes, they were overrated coming into the season, but they aren't as bad as what people are saying. I think Chase Young is going to have a big game here and I like this defense to play well enough for the Football Team to not only cover, but win outright. Give me Washington +8! |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Ravens v. Lions OVER 49.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 49.5) I was shocked to see this total less than 50. The Lions are awful defensively and we have seen time after time this Ravens offense light it up with Lamar Jackson against bad teams. I know Jackson is questionable with an illness, but everything I've read is that he will be on the field Sunday. I'm confident we are going to get 30+ from the Ravens in this one and a good chance they hit the 40-point mark. That means all we need is 20-25 from the Lions to cash this ticket. I know Detroit only had 17 in their MNF loss to Green Bay, but they just couldn't get anything going in the 2nd half. The Ravens are a good defensive team, but they are a team that likes to blitz a lot, so I feel pretty good about Goff and that Lions offense having a few good drives in this game. You also have to factor in the perfect conditions playing in a dome. Give me the OVER 49.5! |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Bengals +3 v. Steelers | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +3) I love the Bengals as a mere 3-point road dog against the Steelers. I'll be the first to admit that I thought this Steelers team was going to be better than people thought. I don't think that anymore. While Pittsburgh's defense is one of the better units in the league, the offense is one of the worst. The Steelers offensive line might be the worst in the NFL and Big Ben looks like he's half the quarterback he was. Roethlisberger is also now dealing with a pec injury, so this doesn't figure to be the game he gets on track. I also have big concerns with Pittsburgh's defense is T.J. Watt can't go. He's one of several guys on the defensive side of the ball that are questionable for this game. As for the Bengals, I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this team in their first two games. Joe Burrow might not have any better of an offensive line in front of him, but he's shown that he can find a way to make things happen. I also think this Cincinnati defense is vastly underrated. The Bengals are only giving up 304 ypg, 4.7 yards/play and 3.4 yards/rush. Give me Cincinnati +3! |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Panthers -7.5 v. Texans | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Panthers/Texans TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Panthers -7.5) If you are a long-term client, you know that the OVER is my go to in these Thursday games, especially early in the season. If Tyrod Taylor was starting for Houston, I would have been. I just can't take an over when I'm not sure one of the two teams will be able to move the ball. Third round rookie Davis Mills will start in place of Taylor. Mills wasn't drafted with any kind of expectation that they would need him. He's just not ready for this stage and honestly may never be. He was 8 of 18 for 102 yards. That's 5.7 yards/attempt. Taylor was 10 of 11 for 125 yards with an 11.4 yards/attempt before he went down (Houston might have won that game if he doesn't get hurt). Mills also doesn't have the mobility and ability to move the chains with his feet. He's also going up against an extremely well coached Carolina defense that has been elite in their first two games. They held the Jets to 252 total yards and the Saints to a whopping 128. They have given up 90 rushing yards in two games, giving up just 2.7 yards/carry. I think the only thing that would give Mills a chance to be good in this game, is if Houston got the run game going. On the flip side, there's no reason to think this Carolina offense won't be able to expose a bad Houston defense that won't by near it's best on just 3 days. Houston is giving up 375 yards/game (Panthers have allowed 380 total in two games). They let an awful Jags offense put up 395 yards. The other thing with the Panthers is I think people are slow to believe in this team because of Sam Darnold. All they can think about is how bad the Jets were with Darnold the last couple of years. He's much improved and in a much better scheme for his skill set. He also benefits from all the attention that Christian McCaffrey gets from defenses. I know it's the NFL and you never quite know what is going to happen, but I would be shocked if Houston had any kind of chance to cover in the 2nd half. Give me the Panthers -7.5! |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Lions/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 48.5) I'm going with the OVER 48.5 on Monday Night Football. I know some of the Lions' scoring against the 49ers came in the final minutes of regulation, but I was impressed with the unit. Jared Goff was way better than I anticipated. He had 338 yards and 3 scores. Detroit also ran for 116 yards and 4.8 yards/carry. They now face a Packers defense that had no answer for Jameis Winston and the Saints offense. New Orleans played keep away from Rogers and put up an impressive 5.4 yards/play. That same Saints offense could only put up 128 total yards and 3.0 yards/play this past Sunday against the Panthers. This too me all comes down to the Packers offense. I got some concerns, but I also think it's pretty safe to say that Rodgers and company will be a lot better than what they showed in Week 1. Detroit doesn't figure to be very good on that side of the ball. They let SF do whatever they wanted and that same 49ers offense really struggled on Sunday against the Eagles. Last year these two teams combined for 63 in the game at GB and 55 in the matchup in Detroit. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -112 | 129 h 3 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3) I just don't understand this line. This to me feels like what the line should be if both teams were at full strength. That's just not the case. The Ravens have been absolutely decimated by injuries. It's really starting to remind me a lot of the 49ers last year, where they had so many guys go out they went 6-10 just one year removed from playing in the SB. Everyone knows about all the guys the Ravens have had go down at running back. They also lost one of their best defensive players in corner Marcus Peters. There's also major concern up front on the offensive line. That unit played really bad against a mediocre Raiders defensive front. While it doesn't figure to be long-term, starting left-tackle Ronnie Staley is doubtful to play. The Chiefs are going to LIVE in the Ravens backfield. On the flip side of this, I think because the Browns were up the majority of that game last week, people overlook just how good the Chiefs offense was. Kansas City only punted twice that entire game. Only one of their drives didn't end in Cleveland territory. Patrick Mahomes was only sacked twice, which I think speaks volumes to that new offensive line. The Browns got one of the best defensive fronts in the league. If Baltimore runs all that man-to-man defense, Mahomes is going to pick them apart if he's got time to throw. Mahomes has really feasted on this Baltimore defense the past few years and this might be his best game versus them yet. Give me the Chiefs -3! |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 127 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers -3) I'm going to take the Los Angeles Chargers as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Dallas Cowboys. After watching that Cowboys/Bucs game last Thursday, I immediately circled this game at the Chargers as a spot to play against Dallas. The betting public loves the Cowboys and are going to be betting them like crazy here after what they saw out of this Dallas offense with Dak Prescott under center. That offense is really good, but I'm not as high on that Tampa Bay secondary as others. It's the front 7 that really makes that Bucs defense. I think they could have a little tougher time against this Chargers secondary. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick barely played, but you can't ignore the fact that they held Washington 133 yards passing. That's unheard of in today's NFL. Let's also not forget their new head coach, Brandon Stately got this job because of what he did on the defensive side of the ball with the Rams. The even bigger thing that is getting overlooked with Dallas because of all the attention Dak and that offense are getting, is this Cowboys defense is once again one of the worst units in the league. I thought they were fortunate to only give up 31 to Brady and the Bucs. The Chargers offense didn't wow us in Week 1, as they only put up 20 points in their win over Washington. While I don't know if the Football Team is as good defensively as what everyone is saying, that's a much better defense than the one they will face on Sunday and they should be much more comfortable at home. They did have an impressive 424 yards of total offense against Washington. I think Justin Herbert is going to have a field day in this one and I would be shocked if LA didn't put up at least 30 in this one. Give me the Chargers -3! |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 59 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Situational Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 47.5) I think both of these offenses are coming off very unfavorable matchups. I think you could make a legit case that the Steelers and Patriots are the two best defensive teams in the AFC this year. Since the Bills drafted Josh Allen back in the 2018 offseason, the OVER in this division series is 5-1 with 5 straight covers. Last year the total set in both of their games was 42 and they combined for 59 and 84 points in the two games they played. They have combined for at least 52 in each of the last 5. One thing to note about that Bills defense and the good numbers it put up last week against the Steelers, they couldn’t get off the field in the 2nd half. After holding Pittsburgh scoreless and allowing just 23 total yards in the 1st half, the Steelers scored on all 4 of their 2nd half possessions and put up 229 yards. As for Miami, they were extremely lucky to only give up 17 points. Not only did they give up nearly 400 yards to a rookie QB on the road, they only forced two punts the entire game and one of those they were lucky didn’t end in a field goal. Pats had 1st and 10 on the 30 and ended up 4th and 17 on the 37. I also think weather could play into a high-scoring game. It’s suppose to be hot and humid in Miami this Sunday, so I would expect the defenses to wear down as the game goes on. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers OVER 47 | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 47) I think we are getting some decent value with the OVER in this game. I just think people have a hard time seeing a high-scoring game with the Steelers after how bad the offense looked and how great the defense was in that Week 1 win over the Bills. Yes, the Pittsburgh offense was bad in the 1st half of that game against Buffalo, but they really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half. They had 229 of their 252 total yards in the final two quarters. I think we are going to see that offense start strong and finish strong against a bad Raiders defense. Not to mention the emotional letdown defensively coming off that crazy MNF game vs the Ravens. Pittsburgh is also in a bit of a letdown off that massive game against the Bills. Their defense is maybe the best in the league, but this Raiders offense can put up points on just about any defense. If they can just sniff 20 points, this thing is going to easily get to 50. OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 games as a dog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Average combined score in the 7-0 streak is 64.0 ppg! Give me the OVER 47! |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Patriots -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pats -4.5) I absolutely love the Patriots this week. I bet them early before the line jumped even more, but I do still recommend a play at the current line. As long as this is less than a touchdown, play it. New England was one of my favorite bets in Week 1 that didn't get home. It definitely felt like the right side, as the Pats dominated the box score. NE really beat themselves in that one. Rarely have we seen a Bill Belichick coached team execute poorly in 2 straight games. Let's also not overlook who they are playing. The Jets are awful. I think they may have something in rookie QB Zach Wilson and that's maybe why they are getting some love early on. The problem isn't Wilson, it's the offensive line. Wilson was sacked 6 times in last week's loss to the Panthers. Add in the mastery of Belichick against rookie QBs and there's just little upside for that Jets offense that can't run the ball to do much of anything. The Pats also have a rookie QB in Mac Jones. I said before the season he was my favorite pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and he was by far the best rookie QB in Week 1. He's only going to get better as he learns that McDaniels offense. I think NE will have no problem moving the ball and winning this game by at least double-digits. Give me the Pats -4.5! |
|||||||
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 40.5) I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 40.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Most are going to look at this matchup between NFC East rivals Washington and New York and think it will be low scoring. Neither team was able to reach 20 points in Week 1, as the Football Team lost 16-20 at home, while the Giants scored just 13 in their 14-point loss at home to the Broncos. Not only that, Washington lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that will have him sidelined 6-8 weeks. What will get overlook, as it does every year, is the difficulty that comes with playing on just 3 days rest. It's an absolutely brutal turnaround for NFL teams to play on Sunday and then have to play on Thursday. It's just not enough time for these guys to recover. I believe that really has a negative impact on the defensive side of the ball. So much of what makes a great defense is energy and effort. Both teams figure to be lacking that. I also don't think these offenses are as bad as people think. While the Giants only scored 13 points, they were able to move the football against a really good Denver defense. New York had 314 yards and 19 first downs. They had 4 drives inside Denver territory that didn't result in any points. Washington's defense held the Chargers to 20 points. However, I think their defense is a bit overrated. They got a really good player in Chase Young, but as a whole their more middle of the pack in my eyes. LA did have 424 yards and 27 first downs in that game. As for the Washington offense and the Fitzpatrick injury, I don't think there's a huge drop off from Fitzpatrick to backup Taylor Heinicke. A number of guys on the Football Team voiced their vote for Heinicke to be the starting QB this year. All we basically need is for 5 TDs to be scored in this game. That should get us to 35. You got to think there's at least 2 field goals, which would put us to 41. Give me the OVER 40.5! |
|||||||
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Ravens/Raiders MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 50.5) I think the best bet on Monday Night Football is the UNDER 50.5. I just don't see this game getting into the 50s. Baltimore might have a MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but this is a run-first team. They were 1st in rushing in 2020 (191.9 ypg) and dead last in passing (171.2 ypg). I know Lamar might throw more out of necessity with all the injuries the Ravens have had at RB, but that's not playing to his strength. I also think that Baltimore offense is going up against an improved Raiders defense that has had several big additions at all 3 levels of the defense. They also are getting a new look under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Not to mention this should be an electric atmosphere in Las Vegas' new stadium with fans for the first time in a prime time game. That will fuel that defense. Baltimore did lose a top level corner in Marcus Peters, but they got some solid depth in the secondary and really bring back the entire core from last year's unit that ranked 6th against the pass and 8th against the run. The Raiders got some nice weapons at the skill positions and an okay QB in Carr, but I got big time concerns with an offensive line that will have 4 new starters after they traded away 3 of their best linemen in center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson. I think they are in trouble against that front 7 of Baltimore. Give me the UNDER 50.5! |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints +4.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money BLOODBATH (Saints +4.5) It doesn't feel like anyone is giving New Orleans a shot in this game. Easy to see why. The public loves Aaron Rodgers as a small favorite (certainly don't want to bet against him), there's a lot of questions with the Saints offense now that it's Jameis Winston and not Drew Brees at quarterback and the game isn't being played in the SuperDome (neutral site at Jacksonville). I could be dead wrong here, but I think Winston is going to put up some big numbers in this Sean Payton offense. The one knock on Brees in his final years was he couldn't throw it deep. It really let defenses play up. That's not an issue with Winston (it's forcing it into bad spots). If he can stretch the defense, it's only going to create more space for Alvin Karma and that's a scary thing for opposing teams. Defensively, there's a lot to like here with the Saints. They did lose some guys up who played big roles, but the core of that unit is back. They finished 4th against the run and 5th against the pass last year. They led the league in interceptions and were 8th in sacks. I think they can make life tough for Rodgers and that Packers offense, especially with Green Bay missing stud left tackle David Bakhtiari. It's also worth noting both Packers starting OLB Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith are questionable to play. Give me the Saints +4.5! |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Broncos -2.5 v. Giants | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Broncos -2.5) I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Broncos. I don't love to play road favorites in Week 1 (this is the only one), but I just can't pass up with the value I see with Denver in this one. I just don't know what people are seeing in this Giants team. Getting Saquon Barkley back is a big deal, but they got a below-average QB running their offense in Daniel Jones. They also have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, which is both a negative for Barkley and Jones. It's certainly a negative for New York in this matchup against a really good Denver defense that has two elite pass rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. The Broncos also made massive improvements in the secondary with the free agent additions of Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller, as well as their first round pick on Patrick Surtain II. I just don't see the Giants offense doing much of anything in this game. On the flip side, I think this Denver offense is one to watch out for. Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade over Drew Lock and they one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league. They also had the 13th best rush attack last year. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -6 | 29-33 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Browns/Chiefs GAME OF THE WEEK (Chiefs -6) I got absolutely no problem laying less than touchdown at home with the Chiefs. It's no disrespect the Browns. Okay maybe a little, but it's more about how good I think this Kansas City team is. I really feel like this is the most talented and deep the Chiefs have been on both sides of the ball since Mahomes took over. What GM Brett Veach did to overhaul that offensive line is really remarkable. Even more so that a lot of the guys he went out and got, got beat out by some really promising rookies. Not only is this unit going to better protect Mahomes, but they are going to be able to make defenses that sit back in zone pay with the run game. I really think this offense will be near impossible to start. The Browns made a lot of big moves in the offseason, but I just don't think they are on the same level here. Baker Mayfield is good, but he's not elite and he has to be so good for Cleveland to keep it close in a shootout. This is also no joke of a Chiefs defense. They got one of the best secondaries in the league, made some nice additions to improve against the run and a freak up front in Chris Jones. Add in how difficult it's going to be for Mayfield and the Browns offense to execute with the noise of Arrowhead and I just don't see this game being all that close. Give me the Chiefs -6! |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 559 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Pats -2.5) I will gladly lay less than a field goal at home with the Patriots and I don't care if it's Cam Newton or Mac Jones under center for New England. I don't think people give the Pats enough credit for going 7-9 last year. I know it's nowhere close to the standards we have seen in the last two decades, but I don't know many other coaches that could get 7 wins out of a team with as little talent as NE had after all those guys opted out. *I'm extremely excited that it's going to be Jones at QB. I never really thought Cam was a good fit. For NE's offense to thrive, they need to execute at a high level. Cam isn't a guy that can pick apart defenses in the pocket with his arm. It was all about his freakish size and athleticism, which is why he doesn't have a job just a few years removed from winning the MVP. They should be one of the best defensive teams in the league this year and I'm pretty confident they are going to get better QB play, whether it's Cam or Jones. I do think it will be Cam and I think if he's healthy, he's going to surprise some people. They are also really strong up front on the o-line and should be able to run the football. The Dolphins are a franchise that looks to be headed in the right direction, but I'm not as high on this team as others. I think there's still legit questions on Tua Tagovailoa and if he's a legit franchise QB. I also don't love the weapons he has at his disposal and I got major concerns with their offensive line. Defensively they are going to be solid, but they are more better suited to stop a strong passing attack than a strong run game. Give me the Pats -2.5! |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bills | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 136 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers +6.5) I’m going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 6.5-point road dog at the Buffalo Bills. It doesn't happen often, but this is one of those Week 1 games where it's a matchup between a team that I feel is very underrated and a team I think might be a little overrated. I think because of all the love the Browns and Ravens are getting as the top contenders in the AFC North, people are mistakenly overlooking this Steelers team. Yea they lost a shootout to the Browns in the playoffs, but they won the division last year with a 12-4 record. They are going to be elite on defense again. They only real loss was linebacker Bud Dupree. They got the core back from a unit that was #3 in 2020 in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 305.8 ypg and 19.5 ppg. Offensively there's a lot of questions around Big Ben and can he keep this going. Injuries have been a problem. You can't assume someone is going to get hurt and he's as tough as they get at the position. I've liked what I've seen out of him and this offense in training camp. You also have to keep in mind he doesn't figure to have to carry as big a load this year. The Steelers used a 1st round pick on Alabama RB Najee Harris. There's been nothing but positive reports about Harris so far and I think he's going to be a star from the get go. Yes I said the Bills were overrated. That's not saying I think they are a bad team, but I just think the hype's a little much. They feasted on a down AFC East, going 6-0 in division games. They also went 5-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points. I'll admit Josh Allen has turned out to be better than I thought he would, but he's still not a guy I fully trust. He was just 24 of 32 for 238 yards in last year's game against the Steelers. Defensively they were middle of the pack in about every major stat. I really think this line should be Bills -3 at most. Keep in mind Buffalo was only a 2-point favorite at home vs the Steelers last year. I not only think Pittsburgh keeps it close, but I like their chances of winning outright. Give the Steelers +6.5! |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Vikings v. Bengals +3.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Big Money Vegas STEAMROLLER (Bengals +3.5) I think there's some really good value here with Cincinnati as a 3.5-point home dog against the Vikings. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan. I think the kid has something special and the more I see LSU struggle without him, the less we have to worry about him not being able to be that same guy in the NFL. A big reason there's not more hype on Cincinnati and Burrow coming into 2021, is the simple fact that Burrow missed the last 6 games in 2020. People forget he was on pace to break a lot of rookie record not just in Cincinnati but all-time. He was doing it behind an absolutely awful offensive line and with Tyler Boyd as his No. 1 wideout. Burrow also didn't play in the preseason and for many they need to see it to believe it, so they are holding out to make their evaluations on this team until after this game. The offensive line is far from a strength, but it should be improved. They used a Top 5 pick on wide out Ja'Marr Chase, Burrows former teammate at LSU and a rising star in second year wide out Tee Higgins. The other thing here, this is a plus matchup for Burrow and the Bengals offense. Minnesota was 27th last year in total defense (393.3 ypg), ranking 25th against the pass and 27th vs the run. Their 23 sacks ranked 28th. It's hard to imagine a Mike Zimmer defense being that bad again in 2021, but I'm not one that think he's just going to magically turn them into a Top 10 or even Top Half of the league unit. Vikings got some big names on offense, but I got zero trust in Kirk Cousins. He hasn't looked great in training camp and lost one of his best weapons in TE Irv Smith. Give me the Bengals +3.5! |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44 | 14-19 | Loss | -103 | 86 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44) I really feel like the books aren't close with the total here. It's the 3rd lowest total on Sunday right now, ahead of only the Dolphins/Pats (43.5) and Broncos/Giants (41.5). Without a doubt the biggest factor here is the Jets defense. Last year New York gave up 28.6 ppg. They were 28th against the pass, T-20th in sacks, T-23 in interceptions and 24th in total defense. Two of the Jets biggest pickups to help them improve with defensive end Carl Lawson and middle linebacker Jarrad Davis. Lawson has been lost for the year and Davis is on IR. I just think there's little doubt this Jets defense will be ranking near the bottom of the league in all those categories again in 2021. I do think one thing that's holding this total back, is people aren't quite ready to trust Sam Darnold in Carolina. Was Darnold very good with the Jets? No. However, not many young QBs would be in that situation. He had no talent around him and horrible coaching. He's now got one of the rising stars at head coach in Matt Rhule and even more importantly a really good offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. I think Brady's scheme is legit and it didn't look like the old Darnold in training camp. I mean how big is the gap between Christian McCaffrey and the best skill player Darnold played with at New York? I really think this offense is going to be pushing 30 ppg this year. Last thing for me here is I also think people are sleeping on this Jets offense. New York hired a defensive minded guy in 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to be their new head coach. What people overlook is he brought along 49ers offensive assistant Mike LaFleur to run the ultra-successful offense that was installed in SF by Kyle Shanahan. Not only are the Jets going to be better coached on offense, I think they got something in rookie BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. The spotlight doesn't seem to big for this kid. He's really been impressive to this point. He might not be an upgrade in terms of talent over Darnold, at least not now, but the quarterback play in NY is going to be light years better than it was last year. Last year their top rusher was Frank Gore and leading wide out was Jamison Crowder. I think Tevin Coleman is an upgrade over Gore and Corey Davis has looked like a different guy since coming over from Tennessee. I think they are going to score a lot more (dead last in scoring last year at 15.2 ppg). Give me the OVER 44! |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 82 h 30 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 51) I just don't love the side in this game. I don't trust Dallas, but don't want to lay it with Tampa Bay either. The better bet in this game is on the total and for these two go OVER the number of 51. It's really a no-brainer if you ask me. You got two of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL going head-to-head. Tom Brady and the Bucs offense got off to a slow start in 2020, but it didn't last long. After scoring a mere 3-points against the Saints in early November, Tampa Bay put up at least 24 points in each of their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in each of their 4 playoff games. The Bucs have their entire offense back. They finished last year 7th in total offense and 3rd in scoring. They should be even better the second go around together. It also doesn't hurt they will be facing one of the least talented defenses in the league in the Cowboys. Nothing Dallas did in the offseason screams they are going to be improved. It's going to be up to Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore teams to win. Something they are more than capable of doing. Dallas has a plethora of talent at wide receiver. While they have mentioned wanting to run more to help the defense, their strength is throwing the football. They also aren't going to have a choice against this Bucs defense. TB also brings everyone back on defense and last year they led the league in run defense, giving up 80.6 ypg. Even if the Cowboy's offense gets off to a slow start, they are built to play from behind and can score in the blink of an eye. I see a final score of something along the lines of TB 38 - DAL 28. That's more than two TDs than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 51! |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -114 | 266 h 15 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/BUCS SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* (Chiefs -3) This is an easy play for me on the Chiefs. I not only think the Chiefs win the game and cover, but I could see this thing getting out of hand. Kansas City had little to no problem moving the ball against the Bucs defense when these two teams played in the regular-season. The Chiefs put up 543 yards with Mahomes completing 37 of 49 attempts for 462 yards and 3 scores. That's the thing, this Tampa Bay defense is built to stop the run. They just don't have the corners to hang with the weapons that this KC offense possess. I also think their pass rush will be negated with how good Mahomes is in the pocket. Let's also not forget how bad Mahomes played for about 3.5 quarters of last year's Super Bowl and the Chiefs still won that game. I don't think Mahomes will play that poorly in his second Super Bowl. As for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense, I think they could struggle. The Chiefs should be able to get pressure on Brady, as they got the guys in the secondary to matchup with Tampa Bay's weapons. Sure the Bucs could try and run the ball and might have some success, but it's only a matter of time before they have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Give me Kansas City -3! |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 103 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
50* BILLS/CHIEFS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Chiefs -3 I'm shocked the Chiefs are only a 3-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. I feel like this should be the line if Mahomes wasn't playing, but as expected he's been cleared to play. I get the Chiefs have struggled to cover down the stretch, but we are talking about a 3-point spread with a team that is 24-1 in Mahomes last 25 starts. That includes a win over the Bills earlier this season. A game in which the Chiefs didn't need Mahomes to be great to win, as they rushed for more yards (245) than the Bills had total yards (206). KC's defense completely shutdown Josh Allen, who had a mere 66 passing yards in the 4th quarter before finishing with a mere 122. I just think this Bills offense is a perfect matchup for the Chiefs, as Buffalo doesn't have a running game. If you can't play keep away from Mahomes and that KC offense you are in trouble and I think the the Chiefs defense can exploit Allen's lack of accuracy. I just don't see Mahomes losing a game of this magnitude at home. Give me the Chiefs -3! |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/CHIEFS NFL TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 57) This game has shootout written all over it. The Chiefs are going to score. Since Mahomes took over as the starter Kansas City is averaging 38 ppg when coming off a bye. Last year in their Divisional game off a bye they put up 51 points against the Texans in a game that saw a combined 82 points score. While turnovers plagued the Steelers offense last week against the Browns, Big Ben threw all over that defense. Expect Mahomes to have a field day in this one. Key here is Cleveland has the fire-power offensively to go score-for-score with the Chiefs, at least early on. The only thing that keeps this from going over is both teams having to settle for field goals instead of TDs because they are going to move the ball between the 20s. Give me the OVER 57! |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
50* RAMS/PACKERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams +7) I will gladly take the 7-points with the Rams against the Packers on Saturday. LA was my favorite sleeper pick coming into the playoffs. They lived up to the hype on Wild Card Weekend, going on the road and beating the Seahawks 30-20. For me it's all about the Rams defense. They are so good across the board on that side of the ball. They can take away Aaron Jones and the run game and have one of the best corners in the league in Jalen Ramsey to matchup with Rodgers favorite weapon Davante Adams. There's just not a lot of other weapons out there for GB and if LA can get that pass rush going, the Rams could easily win this game outright. Give me Los Angeles +7! |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Browns +5 v. Steelers | 48-37 | Win | 100 | 147 h 5 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Browns +5) I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. While I do have some concerns with the news that the Browns will be without their head coach, I'm riding with Cleveland in this one. I just think so many people are focusing on that and ignoring the fact that the Steelers did not play well at all down the stretch. Pittsburgh went just 1-4 in their last 5 games and in their lone win, a 28-24 victory against the Colts, they trailed 24-7 in that game. A lot of people will point to the Steelers nearly beating the Browns in Week 17 with Mason Rudolph instead of Ben Roethlisberger. I'm not saying that they are the same quarterback, but Rudolph threw for 315 yards and 2 scores. How much more than that can you really expect out of Big Ben. He only had two games all season where he threw for more than 315 yards and he had 2 or fewer TD passes in 5 of his last 6 starts. Give me the Browns +5! |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Bears +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 9-21 | Loss | -125 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
50* BEARS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (BEARS +10.5) I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. I fully expect the Bears to add to this red-hot trend on Sunday. I played against Chicago as a 5.5-point home dog to the Packers in Week 17. Green Bay went on to cover in a 35-16 win, but it was not anywhere close to as big a blowout as that final score would indicate. The Packers had a mere 21-16 lead with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Chicago outgained Green Bay 356 to 316. This is simply no longer an anemic offense that the Bears have. When you couple their ability to now move the ball with a defense that can matchup with anyone, this team is built to keep games close and that's where the value comes in with this line at 10.5. Not to mention Drew Brees is not Aaron Rodgers, he doesn't put near the threat on the defense down the field that Rodgers does. Give me the Bears +10.5! |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 54 | 20-13 | Loss | -113 | 140 h 1 m | Show | |
40* RAVENS/TITANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 54) I got no problem taking the OVER 54 in Sunday's Wild Card matchup between the Titans and Ravens. These were two of the hottest offenses in the league down the stretch. Baltimore averaged 37.2 ppg in their 5-game winning streak to close out the regular-season. Some will argue that came against a bunch of bad teams. While the Titans are not a bad team, they do field one of the worst defenses in the league. Fighting for their playoff lives, Tennessee allowed 34.3 ppg and 445 ypg in their last 3 games of the regular-season, giving up a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play in the process. What you can say about the Ravens late season surge is they didn't play many good offenses in that stretch. However, the only decent one they faced was the Browns and Cleveland put up 42 points and nearly 500 yards against them. Titans scored 30 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Give me the OVER 54! |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 6 m | Show | |
40* BUCS/FOOTBALL TEAM NFL SHARP STAKE (Football Team +9) No one is going to be running to the ticket window to bet Washington in the last game of Saturday's triple-header and I think it has the Football Team showing tremendous value here as a near double-digit home dog against Tom Brady and the Bucs. History not only says Washington is the right team to back, but it says they will win this game outright. There have been two times where a team has made the playoffs after a full season of games. The 2010 Seattle Seahawks and the 2014 Carolina Panthers. Both teams won outright on Wild Card weekend, with the Seahawks defeating the Saints 41-36 as a 10-point dog and the Panthers taking out the Cardinals 27-16 as a 10-point dog. Not to mention Washington head coach Ron Rivera was the man in charge of Carolina's victory. I'm well aware of the numbers that Tom Brady and the Bucs offense has put up in their 4-game win streak to close out the regular-season, but let's not overlook who they have played during this stretch. Two of the games were against the Falcons and the other two were against the Vikings and Lions. Those are 3 of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Lions are dead last in the league in total defense, Atlanta is 29th and Minnesota is 27th. Washington is No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 304.6 ypg. Their strength being against the pass, as the are No. 2 in that department, giving up just 191.8 passing yards/game. They are also No. 6 in the league in sacks, and it's no secret that over the course of his career the one thing Tom Brady struggles with is pressure and I think it could really be a problem with how much Tampa Bay likes to throw it deep. For the entire season the Bucs only faced 4 teams who finished the league in the Top 10 in sacks. The only two teams they have faced that I think compare to the defensive front of Washington is the Saints and Rams. Tampa Bay lost all 3 of those games and in those games they only averaged 251.7 ypg. Also, Brady in those games averaged just 221.3 passing yards with a 4-7 TD-INT ratio (at least 2 interceptions in each game). I get there's concerns with Alex Smith and the Washington offense, but they have won each of his last 5 starts and scored at least 20 points in each of those games. I think if they can get to 20 they got a great shot at covering this spread and if they can force some turnovers they got a shot to pull off the biggest upset of the weekend. Give me the Football Team +9! |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 120 h 42 m | Show |
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams +5) I love the Rams at this price and I don't care if Goff plays or not. I like LA to win this game outright. These two split their two regular-season meetings and while Seattle won the most recent matchup at home 20-9, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 334 to 292. They outgained them 389 to 333 in the first meeting. This for me is all about the Rams defense and them being able to get stops. LA had the No. 1 total defense, allowing just 281.9 ypg and the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 18.5 ppg. They were No. 1 against the pass, No. 3 against the run and were No. 2 in sacks. They also were one of the better teams running the football down the stretch, averaging close to 130 ypg over their last 6 games. If it's Wofford, he makes their ground game even that more potent. The ability to put pressure on Russell Wilson and shutdown Metcalf with Ramsey is another huge reason I like the Rams in this game. I see this as a one-score game in the 4th quarter and that's where the value really comes from with the Rams at this price. Give me Los Angeles +5! |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/BEARS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Packers -5) I’m going to take the Green Bay Packers -5 on the road against the Chicago Bears. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I know the Bears need a win to ensure they make the playoffs, but this game is every bit as important to Green Bay, who needs a win to lock up the No.1 seed in the NFC. I just don’t see a Packers team that comes in having won 5 straight losing a game of this magnitude. I’m sure there will be people looking to take the points with Chicago at home, as they see a Bears team that has appeared to finally figure things out offensively since reinserting Mitch Trubisky back in the starting role. I’ll be the first to say I didn’t think this Bears offense was capable of scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games, but if it was going to happen it was going to be in this stretch of games. You just can’t overlook who this offensive outburst has come against. It’s been against 4 of the worst defensive teams in the league in the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Houston Detroit and Jacksonville rank 30th, 31st and 32nd in total defense all giving up 411 or more yards/game. Minnesota isn’t far back at 27th. Those 4 teams also all rank in the bottom 7 in points allowed. Green Bay isn’t an elite defensive team by any means, but they held Chicago to just 10 points thru 3 quarters back in Week 12. The Bears added to garbage touchdowns late to finish with 25, but both of those came with the Packers up 31 points. Aaron Rodgers threw 4 touchdowns in that win as Green Bay finished with 41 and that was with good old Mitch at quarterback for the Bears. I just think when you factor in who the Bears have beat up on over the last month, there’s no reason to think the Packers can’t win this game by at least a touchdown. I think they not only do that, but likely win going away. Give me Green Bay -5! |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Chargers -4.5 v. Chiefs | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Chargers -4.5) I think we are getting a steal with the Chargers as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Chiefs. Los Angeles comes into this game having won 3 straight and I see them being plenty motivated here, even with KC resting several players and those starters that do end up playing don't figure to stay in long. The biggest thing for me is no Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs. A lot of people want to write off what Mahomes is doing because of Andy Reid and all the weapons he has. They ignore all the guys the Chiefs have lost on the offensive line. Mahomes is under constant pressure that not many quarterbacks could deal with. I think it's going to be a really tough game for backup Chad Henne. On the flip side of this, the Chargers should be able to move the ball here with Herbert. He made his NFL debut against KC back in Week 2 and went 22 of 33 for 311 yards. I don't expect many of the starters on defense to play long or at all. Give me Los Angeles -4.5! |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos +131 | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
50* RAIDERS/BRONCOS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Broncos +131) I love the Broncos here as a home dog that I'm going to just take them on the money line. I don't know if you can find a much worse spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders have went from 6-3 and looking like a sure playoff contender to 7-8 and completely out of it. Hard for a team that expected to be in the postseason to show up for a meaningless Week 17 game on the road against a bad team like the Broncos. On top of that, you have to factor in the emotional toll that the last two games have had on this team. First it was the OT loss to the Chargers at home in prime time (TNF) and then last week's debacle against the Dolphins. That loss to Miami is as gut wrenching of a loss as you are going to find. Denver's been out of it for a while now and I just think this young team is going to show up for their last game, especially with it being at home and against a team they despise in the Raiders. Give me the Broncos +131! |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 47 | 38-9 | Push | 0 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
40* BILLS/PATRIOTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Under 47) I like the UNDER 47 between the Bills and Patriots on Monday Night Football. These two teams only combined for 45 in the first meeting and that was with 17 points being scored in the 4th quarter. It was a 14-6 game with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. I know the Patriots are completely out of it, but I don't see them laying down at home on MNF against a division rival. On top of that, Belichick's defensive mastermind has been a thorn for Buffalo's Josh Allen. In Allen's 4 starts against the Pats the Bills have only averaged 15.8 ppg and that dips down to 14.5 ppg in two games at New England. He's only completed 50.4% of his attempts with an average of 183.0 ypg (3-6 TD-INT ratio). On the flip side of this, you have an anemic New England offense led by Cam Newton. The Pats really don't offer much in the passing game. I expect them to try and ugly up this game by running it a lot and keeping Allen and the Bills offense off the field. Either way, hard to expect a lot out of this offense, which has scored just 15 points in their last two games combined. Give me the UNDER 47! |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
50* BRONCOS/CHARGERS AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Chargers -3) I love the Chargers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Broncos. After a season filled with finding ways to lose games, LA has flipped the script the last two weeks with a 20-17 home win over the Falcons in Week 14 and a thrilling 30-27 win at Las Vegas last week. I not only think the trend continues, I think they win here easily. The Broncos have been decimated with injuries in their secondary, most notably at the corner position. Denver has not only lost both starting corners, Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye, but Kevin Tolliver, Duke Dawson and Essang Bassey have all suffered season-ending injuries. They also won't have one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb. That's a big problem against talented rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. On the flip side of things, Denver won't have their best back in Phillip Lindsay to take advantage of weak Chargers run defense and you can't trust Drew Lock at all. I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the Chargers -3! |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Colts -1.5 v. Steelers | 24-28 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 42 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -1.5) Pittsburgh comes into this game 11-3 and currently tied for the 2nd best record in the AFC, while the Colts are 10-4 and in a dog fight with the Titans for the top spot in the AFC South. Not many times are you going to see an 11-win team in the month of December as a home dog. I just think that right there tells you how bad it is right now with Pittsburgh. It crazy that just a few weeks ago the Steelers were the talk of the NFL as the lone unbeaten team at 10-0. The downward spiral started when they lost 23-17 at home to Washington after leading in that game 14-0. Then came a 26-15 loss at Buffalo, which I don’t think surprised a lot of people given how well the Bills have been playing. Then the unthinkable happened, they lost as a 14.5-point favorite to an awful Bengals team that was starting 3rd string quarterback Ryan Finley, who finished the game 7 of 13 for 89 yards. I’m sure there are going to be some that give Pittsburgh a pass. It’s easy to do when you have an 11-3 team. I just don’t think it’s a wise move. I just don’t think this is something that the Steelers can just snap out of. The writing was on the wall way before the losing started to happen, but a cupcake schedule covered up a lot of flaws. The defense that carried this team early has been decimated with injuries, Big Ben is not playing well and a lot of that is he has to do too much. Steelers are 31st in the NFL in rushing and they just don’t have the weapons like they use to on the outside. I don’t see them doing anything on the ground against a Colts defense that is one of the best in the league against the run. That’s going to make it really tough on the Steelers to sustain drives and I just feel that Indy’s renewed running game is going to be able to wear down the Steelers defense and secure a big road win on Sunday. Give me the Colts -1.5! |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Falcons v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | 14-17 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
40* FALCONS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 52.5) I see quite a bit of value here with the OVER 52.5 between the Chiefs and Falcons. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are really clicking in the 2nd half of the season and should be in for a big day here against an Atlanta defense that is giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season. The even bigger key is that the Falcons aren't a team that's going to try to run the ball and play keep away from the Chiefs offense. Matt Ryan and company will take the challenge head on and try to go score-for-score with KC. Something they are very capable of doing, as this is far from a dominant Chiefs defense. KC also does a really poor job of putting pressure on opposing QBs so Ryan is going to have time to attack the Chiefs secondary down the field. OVER is 11-3 in the Chiefs last 14 games in the 2nd half of the season vs a team that is giving up 5.65 or more yards/play (average combined score in these games is 63.5 points) and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 235 or more passing yards/game (average score in this situation is 61.3 points). Give me the OVER 52.5! |
|||||||
12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | 20-12 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
40* 49ERS/CARDINALS NFL NO-BRAINER (Cardinals -5) I just can't help myself with Arizona laying less than a touchdown. The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs with last week's 33-41 loss to the Cowboys and for a team that played in the Super Bowl last year, finishing out these last two games could prove to be quite a challenge. I know they are getting Kittle back, but he's likely on a play count and there's just too many injuries on both sides for it to make that big of a difference. This is a must-win for Arizona, who currently is 1-game up on the Bears, who play the Jags on Sunday. Keep in mind the Cards have to play at LA in Week 17 and the Rams will likely need that game for the NFC West title. Chicago on the other hand could be playing at home against a Packers team that has nothing to play for. There's really no excuse for Arizona to not win by at least 7 here. While they only won by 4 in the first meeting, that was back in Week 1 when the 49ers were still healthy. I just think the sharps are playing the number with SF and it's not the right move given the circumstances in Week 16. Give me the Cardinals -5! |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 50.5 | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Over 50.5) I'm going to take the OVER 50.5 in Friday's NFL matchup on Christmas Day. I just think we are going to see quite a bit of scoring from both teams. Minnesota has a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. That front 7 they are going to send out will look nothing like what they had hoped to start the year. I think that's a big edge for Drew Brees and the Saints. While New Orleans is down some receivers, they are going to want to get this offense going before the playoffs. They should be able to run at will, plus Brees should be able to dink and dunk with those backs against a bunch of inexperienced linebackers. Not to mention we could see absolutely no effort from Minnesota on defense, as they just had their playoff hopes all but crashed in last week's loss to the Bears. As for the Vikings offense, they got some weapons to work with and few are better a meaningless stats than Kirk Cousins. They could also catch a big break here with NO's best pass rusher Trey Hendrickson questionable, as well as free safety Marcus Williams (really no reason for Saints to rush either guy back). Give me the OVER 50.5! |