Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -2.5) I just can't pass up on the Chiefs at -2.5. Kansas City is in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are not going to take their foot off the gas these final 3 games. The big news for this game is that Drew Brees is returning from injury. I'm a bit shocked Brees is back this early and I just wonder what he's going to be able to do and how he will respond to a hit. I'm sure they are going to try and rely heavily on their run game, but that only works if the defense can keep Mahomes and the KC offense in check. We have also seen time and time again teams who try to play keep away with the run game, they get up early, but can't sustain it for a full 4 quarters. Another big thing for me is Mahomes wasn't great last week against the Dolphins with 3 interceptions. I can guarantee you that game has been itching at Mahomes all week. Great players almost always respond after a bad showing and I think that's what we get here. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! |
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12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings -3 | 33-27 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 57 m | Show | |
40* BEARS/VIKINGS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Vikings -3) *Analysis Coming* |
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12-20-20 | Texans +7.5 v. Colts | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/COLTS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Texans +7.5) I like the value here with the Texans catching 7.5-points on the road against a division rival. I think the perception with Houston is they have thrown in the towel after last week's embarrassing loss to the Bears. That performance wasn't pretty, but it was also to be expected after a crushing loss to the Colts the week before. If not for fluke fumble inside the 10-yard line in the final seconds, there's a very strong chance the Texans would have scored and beat Indy outright. There's definitely going to be some motivation here for revenge, but there's also motivation to play spoiler with how important this game is to the Colts in winning the AFC South. Another thing with last week's game against the Bears, Houston was down basically all their best skill players. They are going to get a few guys back for this game and with Deshaun Watson at quarterback they will be able to move the ball. Texans had over 300 passing yards in that previous game against the Colts. Give me Houston +7.5! |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -3 v. Cowboys | 33-41 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
40* 49ERS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (49ers -3) I like this spot and price with San Francisco. You have the 49ers coming into this game off back-to-back losses as a slim favorite, while the Cowboys enter off their best win of the season, as they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. The thing is the 49ers two losses came against a red-hot Bills team and a surging Washington squad. Dallas' blowout victory was against the reeling Bengals, who have been a dumpster fire offensively since losing Burrow. Part of the problem in San Francisco's two most recent losses is they couldn't get the run game going against the strong defensive fronts of Buffalo and Washington. That's not going to be the case here. Dallas is awful against the run. On the flip side, the 49ers defense has continued to hold their own no matter who they have healthy and this Cowboys offense is one they should have success against. Give me San Francisco -3! |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +7 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
40* BUCS/FALCONS NFL MONEYMAKER (Falcons +7) I felt very fortunate cashing with the Bucs last week against the Vikings. I thought when this line came out that maybe the books were trying to get us to take the Falcons, but the more I looked into it, the more it just feels like Brady and the Bucs are being overvalued. I just don't see Atlanta laying down in a division game, so while it's clear that Tampa Bay is the only team with something to play for, I expect the Falcons to be extremely motivated to play spoiler. You also have to like Matt Ryan and the weapons they have against a Bucs secondary that has a way of giving up big plays down the field. I'm not saying Atlanta pulls off the upset, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did. Give me the Falcons +7! |
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12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
40* PANTHERS/PACKERS NFL NO-BRAINER (Panthers +8) This just feels like a few too many points for Green Bay to be laying against Carolina on Saturday. Even though all Teddy Bridgewater does is cover the spread, the betting public can't help themselves when it comes to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, especially when they are rolling and playing at home. It's what has allowed the books to inflate the number here. It's very similar to last week against Detroit with the Packers laying 9-points on the road to a Lions team that can attack their weak secondary. Carolina can do the same and will always be in this game because of it. The backdoor will be wide open in the 4th quarter if needed, though I think the Panthers are going to be in it the whole way. Keep in mind the only team to beat Carolina by more than 8 is the Bucs. Also, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are off a road division win and have won 75% or more of their games are a mere 8-31 (20%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Panthers +8! |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
50* CHARGERS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +3) I'm taking the Chargers and the points on Thursday Night Football. I've had it with this Raiders team. This team was right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture and have just not showed up to play. They got absolutely annihilated by the Falcons 43-6 in Week 13, should have lost to the Jets (won 31-28 on last second TD) and got embarrassed at home last week by the Colts 44-27. The firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther should have happened before the season ever started. I don't think doing it in Week 15 is going to do a whole lot. Especially with all the injuries the Raiders are dealing with on that side of the ball. They got at least 4 starters out for this one and it's not like this defense was playing any good when they were at full strength. Herbert and the Chargers are a difficult team to trust with how they find ways to lose games, but I think some of that is playing into this favorable line. I really think Las Angeles is the more talented team and there's plenty of motivation for them to put an end to the Raiders playoff hopes with a win tonight. Give me the Chargers +3! |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
50* RAVENS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 46.5) I love the UNDER in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between AFC North rivals Browns and Ravens. I think we are getting value here with the UNDER after Cleveland's game last week against the Titans, which saw a combined 76 points in the Browns 41-35 win. I know Baker Mayfield has looked great here of late, but let's not overlook the fact that his last two games have come against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jags and Titans. I mean he was throwing to wide open guys against Tennessee. Baltimore isn't going to give them those easy looks and most importantly the Ravens have the front 7 that can contain the Browns ground game. The other big thing to note is that these two combined for 44 back in Week 1 with Baltimore scoring 38. With much colder conditions, a lot more tape on each team and winds expected to be blowing at close to 15 mph, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to score 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5! |
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12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3 | Top | 23-15 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
50* FBALL TEAM/49ERS ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers -3) I absolutely love this spot and price with the 49ers against the Redskins. This is the perfect time to fade Washington off that huge win over the Steelers on Monday. I also think it's the perfect spot to jump on San Francisco after they got embarrassed by the Bills last week. Not to take anything from Washington's win over Pittsburgh, but you can't overlook the difficult circumstances that the Steelers were in for that game. Pittsburgh was playing that game on 4 days rest, while Washington came into that game on 10 days of rest. The Football Team's 4 other wins besides the upset of the Steelers are against the Eagles, Cowboys (twice) and Bengals. I know the 49ers are playing in Arizona as their now home, but should be more familiar with this spot having played here last week. It's also the 3rd straight game Washington will be playing away from home. I just feel like SF's defense will be the difference maker in this one. Give me the 49ers -3! |
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12-13-20 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | Top | 44-27 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
50* COLTS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Raiders +3) I love the Raiders catching a field goal at home against the Colts. The perception with Las Vegas has dropped dramatically over the last few weeks. People were talking about the Raiders as one of the best teams in the AFC when they nearly upset the Chiefs for a second time in Week 11. Then came a 43-6 los at Atlanta and a miracle 31-28 win at New York. It's created the perfect buy low spot on Las Vegas this week. Right now the Raiders are sitting on the outside looking in at the playoffs. They are tied for the 8th best record in the AFC with Baltimore at 7-5, but are just 1-game back of the Colts and Dolphins. They can move into a tie with Indy and possibly Miami (play KC). I also got some big concerns with the Colts in this one. Philip Rivers is not right as he continues to fight through turf toe and Indy is a little banged up on the defensive line. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Colts playing their second straight on the road (decent travel here) and off that huge win over the Texans last week. Give me Las Vegas +3! |
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12-13-20 | Vikings v. Bucs -6.5 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 95 h 29 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/BUCS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -6.5) I’m going to take Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 at home against the Minnesota Vikings. I know this is going to be a public play. I don’t care. I really like the Bucs to win this game by at least a touchdown. I still think that even though this is a big public play, we are getting value with Tampa Bay due to the fact that they come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4. As well as the fact that the Bucs have a massive edge with them coming off of their bye week, while the Vikings just played an overtime game last week and haven’t a week off since late October. Let’s also not overlook the fact that while the Bucs have lost 3 of their last 4, those 3 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. I also love the matchup. Minnesota’s defense is below average to say the least. While they are only giving up 23 ppg over their last 5 games, they have played the Lions, Bears, Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars, who are a combined 18-42 this year. In their previous 7 games before this easy stretch in their schedule, Minnesota was allowing 30.5 ppg. The other big thing here for me is the Vikings offense is really centered around running back Dalvin Cook and this Bucs defense is the best in the NFL against the run, giving up just 74.2 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry. Tampa Bay also sits 6th in the NFL with 34 sacks. I just don’t see Cousins performing well under constant pressure in this game. Also worth noting last time out the Bucs lost at home to the Chiefs and KC outgained them by 126 yards. As a head coach, Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS off a home loss and 13-3 ATS off a game where his team was outgained by 100+ yards. Give me the Bucs -6.5! |
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12-13-20 | Cowboys -3 v. Bengals | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/BENGALS NFL SHARP STAKE (Cowboys -3) I will continue to fade the Bengals in Week 14. We have went against Cincinnati in each of their first two games without rookie Joe Burrow at quarterback. We got unlucky with the Giants not covering the 6.5 in Week 12, but were able to cash last week with the Dolphins -9.5. As bad as it's been for the Cowboys this year, I can't help but take Dallas as a mere 3-point favorite. The Bengals haven't been able to do anything without Burrow on offense. They totaled just 155 yards against the Giants and only had 196 last week against the Dolphins. Even this Dallas defense should be able to hold their own. You also have to remember that while the Cowboys come in with a record of just 3-9, they are not of it in the NFC East. With home games against the 49ers and Eagles on deck before closing out at New York against the Giants, Dallas has to believe they can run the table here and finish 7-9. Either way I got to take them in this one. Give me the Cowboys -3! |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +2 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/BEARS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +2) As difficult as it may be to back the Bears given they come into this game having lost 6 straight games, there's too much value to pass up with Chicago as a home dog against a decimated Texas team that I think will have a hard time getting up for this game after last week's crushing loss to the Colts, where they were on the verge of scoring the game-winning touchdown, only to fumble inside the 10-yard line. That loss to the Colts all but ended any hopes of sneaking into the playoffs. While they aren't officially eliminated, it's only a matter of time, as they are 4-games back of 7th seed Indy with 4 to play and have multiple teams between them and the Colts. Not only will the Texans likely not be all that interested given those circumstances, but this is team that plays indoors and will be playing in near freezing temps at Soldier Field in Chicago. Last time Houston played in poor conditions was at Cleveland in Week 10 and they managed just 7 points and 243 yards of total offense. Give me the Bears +2! |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
50* PATRIOTS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -4.5) I really like the Rams to cover the 4.5-point spread at home against the Patriots. I think a lot of people are taking New England in this game because of the fact that the Pats have won 4 of 5 and are off a 45-0 thrashing of the Chargers. They also remember what Belichick and that Pats defense did to Goff and the Rams offense in the Super Bowl a few years back. I just don't that I'm buying New England being this vastly improved team all of the sudden. I think the offense has major flaws. While they scored 45 in their last game, they finished that game with fewer than 300 yards of total offense (291). Pats are a run-first team and that plays right into the strength of the Rams defense. I also think McVay and Rams offense will be better prepared for what Belichick is going to throw at them this time around. I'm not saying they are going to go off for 30+ points or anything like that, but I think if they can get into the mid 20s, they have a great shot of winning by 5+ points. Give me the Rams -4.5! |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens -7.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
50* COWBOYS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -7.5) I just think this is the spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens have went from one of the top Super Bowl contenders to a team that is on the outside looking in for a playoff spot in the AFC. With the 3 Wild Card teams (Browns, Dolphins and Colts) all sitting at 8-4 or better, Baltimore absolutely has to have this game. They are every bit in it with a win, which would move them to 7-5. If they fall to 6-6, they are in serious trouble. I know this team has had quite the deal with Covid, but they are getting a lot of guys back. It's also worth pointing out that while they are playing on just 5 days of rest, this will be just their second game since Nov. 22nd. I also love the matchup. Dallas can't stop the run and that's the one thing this Ravens team does really well. On the flip side of this, the Cowboys offensive line has been absolutely decimated with injuries. I just don't think they will be able to do much of anything on that side of the ball. Give me the Ravens -7.5! |
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12-07-20 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Steelers | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
50* WASHINGTON/PITTSBURGH MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +7) I like the price we are getting with Washington against the Steelers. It's been pretty hectic for Pittsburgh of late. They had a game scheduled against the Ravens on Thanksgiving that didn't get played until last Wednesday. That was a big division game and it ended up being a lot closer than expected. Now the Steelers have to find a way to get back up on just 4 days of rest to face a hungry and vastly improved Washington squad. Alex Smith might not be the QB he was, but he's better than what the Football Team had. Washington also has a dominant defensive line that I believe will make it really tough on what I think is a very overrated Steelers offense. I know Steelers defense has been really strong this season, but they have struggled a bit against the run of late. Washington can definitely take advantage of that and if Smith gets rolling they can win this game outright. Give me the Football Team +7! |
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12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/TEXANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -3) I’m going to take the Indianapolis Colts -3 on the road against the Houston Texans. Perfect time to buy low on Indy off an ugly 26-45 loss at home to the Titans and perfect time to sell high on the Texans off a 41-25 thrashing of a bad Lions team on Thanksgiving Day. One thing I like here with the Colts is a lot of their key guys on the injury report are trending towards playing. Top RB Jonathan Taylor has been activated from the Covid List, center Ryan Kelly and guard Quinten Nelson are both practicing in full and there’s a good chance defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry will be activated off the Covid list prior to the game. While Indy is getting key guys back, Houston just got news that leading wide out Will Fuller and top corner Bradley Robey are both suspended for the remainder of the season after getting caught using performance enhancing drugs. It was already going to be hard enough for Deshaun Watson against a pissed of Colts defense that has been shredded their last two games. Same thing with the Houston defense, who is simply not very good. The numbers look decent here of late, but they have played a depleted Lions team that was missing all their skill players, a one dimensional Patriots offense and a mediocre Browns offense in bad conditions. Even with those 3 decent showings, Houston is still giving up 27.0 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. I think Indy is going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Colts have scored 26 or more in 5 of their last 6 games and sitting 9th in the league in scoring at 27.65 ppg. Give me Indianapolis -3 |
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12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings -10 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
40* JAGUARS/VIKINGS NFL SHARP STAKE (Vikings -10) I'm going to roll the dice here with Minnesota. After an ugly loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings responded in a big way last week by turning a 21-10 4th quarter deficit into a 28-27 victory. Minnesota is now 4-1 in their last 5 and are 5-6 overall after starting the season 1-5. Jaguars haven't won a game since their upset of the Colts in Week 1, as they enter here on a 10-game losing streak. Jacksonville has covered 3 of their last 4 with most of that coming via the backdoor. I just don't trust the Jags to keep this one close. Minnesota should be able to do as they please on the offensive side of the ball. Jags aren't going to be able to stop Dalvin Cook and that's going to open up things for big plays in the passing game. I also think you have to look at the fact that Mike Glennon is starting over a healthy Gardner Minshew. If that isn't trying to lose on purpose I don't know what it. They 100% don't think Glennon is any kind of long-term answer. Give me the Vikings -10! |
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12-06-20 | Bengals v. Dolphins -10.5 | Top | 7-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
50* BENGALS/DOLPHINS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dolphins -10.5) I was on the wrong end of an ugly Bengals cover last week, as I had the Giants -5.5 and Cincinnati somehow got the cover doing next to nothing on offense the entire game. That's not going to deter me from fading the Bengals again, even at this big number. There's only a handful of games left and Miami is 1-game back of the Bills for the AFC East lead. I just don't see this team not showing up for this game at home and that's really the only way I see them not covering here. The Dolphins are even better defensively than the Giants and even if it's Tua and not Fitzmagic, Miami's offense is more potent than New York's, especially with them getting back running back Myles Gaskin after he missed the last 4 games. This Dolphins defense has made a living this year turning turnovers into points. I would be shocked here if they didn't have multiple turnovers in this one. Bengals had 3 last week against the Giants. Give me Miami -10.5! |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
50* SEAHAWKS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 48.5) I wanted to take Seattle, but I just don't feel like laying a touchdown on the road with this Seahawks team. Seattle has lost each of their last 3 road games, two of which they went off as the favorite. The good news is, I see a ton of value with the OVER at less than 50. In Seattle's 5 road games 4 have seen a combined score of at least 54 points with 3 going for 63 or more. Only exception was at LA vs the Rams. It's a combination of how great this Seahawks offense is and how poor the defense has been. There's so much talent across the board with the Seattle offense and I just feel this Eagles defense is better suited to stop the run. I know Wentz has been awful and there's talk that Hurts is going to get a long look, I think they can get something going here at home against this Seattle defense. Seattle is giving up 30.4 ppg, 450 ypg and 6.5 yards/play on the road this season. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 55.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -118 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
40* CHIEFS/BUCS NFL SLAUGHTER (Over 55.5) I don't think there's any reason to overthink this one. I know Brady and the Bucs have had their struggles of late, but I just don't think the Chiefs defense is going to be able to keep them in check. I think we get one of the good games from Tampa Bay's offense. As for the Chiefs, there's no one getting in the way of Mahomes and that offense right now. Mahomes will be welcoming back Sammy Watkins, giving him a weapon he's really missed the last few weeks. I just really think you can exploit this Bucs defense down the field and that's a recipe for disaster against Mahomes and this offense. I think there's a chance that both teams score into the 30's but we really just need one of the two to go off, as I don't see a scenario where either team scores fewer than 24 points. Play the OVER 55.5! |
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11-29-20 | Giants -5.5 v. Bengals | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 12 m | Show | |
40* GIANTS/BENGALS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Giants -5.5) I’m going to lay the 6-points with the New York Giants on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. I have big time concerns with the Bengals over the final 6 weeks after losing Joe Burrow to a pretty serious knee injury. I think his injury could suck the life out of this team. They aren’t making the playoffs and without Burrow the Jets probably wouldn’t be the only winless team going into Week 12. Burrow suffered the injury less than 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. From that point on the Bengals offense managed a mere 25 yards of total offense on 21 plays. Ryan Finley came in for Burrow and went 3 of 10 for 30 yards with an interception and was sacked 4 times. Word is that Brandon Allen will start instead of Finley against the Giants, but I’m not expecting much better results. Allen’s played in 3 games since being drafted in the 6th round of the 2016 draft. All 3 coming last year with the Broncos. In those 3 starts he completed 39 of 84 attempts (46.4%) with two interceptions and was sacked 9 times. Sure the Bengals have some decent weapons at receiver, but they got no running game and an awful offensive line. People don’t realize just how great Burrow was playing given what he had to work with. That Cincinnati offense will be up against a Giants defense that can get after the quarterback. New York is T-12th in the league with 25 sacks. On of all that, there’s more to like here with New York. The Giants have quietly been playing well for a while now. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and have covered 4 straight. They are just 3-4 SU in these 7 games, but 3 of the losses were by 3-points or less and the other was by just 8 on the road at the Rams. You also have to factor in the Giants are coming off their bye week and with a win against the Bengals they will move into a T-1st place in the NFC East with whoever wins with the Redskins/Cowboys game on Thanksgiving. This is definitely one of the few times that I would ever consider laying almost a touchdown on the road with a 3-win team, but I really would be shocked if this game was close at all. Give me the Giants -6! |
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11-29-20 | Panthers v. Vikings OVER 51 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
40* PANTHERS/VIKINGS NFL SHARP STAKE (Over 51) I like the OVER 51 in today's matchup between the Panthers and Vikings. I know Carolina won't have McCaffrey and Thielen is out for the Vikings, but there's more than enough weapons on these two offenses to expose the poor talent these two have on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina only managed 20 against the Lions last week with P.J. Walker at quarterback, but that was his first start and they should have had a lot more, as Walker threw two interceptions in the endzone. Bridgewater will be back and should expose a bad Vikings secondary. Vikings should be able to ride Cook and rookie wideout Jefferson to a lot of points. Don't be fooled by the shoutout from the Panthers defense last week against Detroit. Lions had all their key guys out and Stafford was playing at like 70%. The week before they gave up 46 to the Bucs. I think at least one of these teams hit 30 points and both should score no fewer than 20, which makes 51 a very easy number to hit. Give me the OVER 51! |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/JETS NFL NO-BRAINER (Dolphins -6.5) I backed the Dolphins before the news that Tua was going to be hurt, but that was with the expectation that he likely wouldn't play. Even if he had been a go, I still would have liked Miami in this spot. I love them now that Fitzpatrick is back at quarterback, as the offense was clearly moving the ball better with him under center. There's no reason that Fitz and the Dolphins can't score 30 points in this game. I know Darnold will be back for the Jets, but that doesn't really concern me against a very underrated Dolphins defense. The Jets are scoring 14.9 ppg and giving up 30.2 ppg. Darnold isn't fixing that. The only concern here would be Miami not giving New York their full attention, but I just don't see that happening. Dolphins should be locked in off a loss last week and they are trying to win the division. They are just 1-game back of Buffalo and can't afford to lose here. Give me Miami -6.5! |
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11-29-20 | Raiders v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 6-43 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 53.5) I love the OVER 53.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Raiders and Falcons. I don't see a great defensive effort here from Las Vegas after that crushing loss the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. With that said, even in normal circumstances I would be high on this Atlanta offense against this Raiders defense. While I'm not expecting a great effort defensively, I do think Carr and that Raiders offense will come to play and they too will be up against a deflated defense in the Falcons, who couldn't stop Taysom Hill and the Saints last week. These are really two identical teams. Vegas is scoring 28.6 ppg and giving up 27.6 ppg. Atlanta is scoring 25.2 ppg and allowing 27.5 ppg. I think both teams hit the 30-point mark. Not only do we have ideal conditions with the game indoors, but these non-confernece matchups always seem to be a little higher scoring, as there's just not much familiarity with the two teams. Speaking to that, OVER is 7-0 last 2 seasons in non-conference games involving the Raiders. OVER is also 33-18 in Atlanta's last 51 after a road loss by 14 or more. Give me the OVER 53.5! |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
50* FBALL TEAM/COWBOYS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +3) I will gladly take the 3-points with Washington, as they visit the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The books know everyone is going to be on Dallas in this game, especially after their big win over the Vikings last Sunday. It wreaks of a trap. What people will overlook with the Cowboys strong showing against the Vikings is that Minnesota's defense is not very good. The biggest thing is the Vikings don't have the talent on the defensive line to exploit a bad Dallas offensive line. That's not the case against the Foortball Team. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the league. People also are quick to forget that these two teams played once already and the Football Team won convincingly 25-3 with a 397 to 142 edge in total yards. Andy Dalton was just 9 of 19 for 75 yards in that game and the Washington defense racked up 6 sacks in that contest. Cowboys defense had no answer for Washington's run game, as they racked up 208 yards on 39 attempts (5.3 yards/carry). Kyle Allen started that game, but only threw for 194 yards, so no reason not to expect the same or better numbers from Alex Smith in the rematch. Give the Football Team +3! |
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11-26-20 | Texans -3 v. Lions | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/LIONS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Texans -3) I just can't help myself here with the Texans laying only a field goal on the road against the Lions. Detroit is an absolute mess right now. There's clearly something wrong with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He was just 18 of 33 for 178 yards against a pretty suspect Carolina defense. Detroit's defense has also been ravaged with injuries in the secondary, most notably at cornerback. They just let Carolina backup QB, P.J. Walker complete 24 of 34 for 258 yards in his first ever start. The Panthers won that game 20-0, but it should have been a lot worse, as Walker threw two picks in the endzone. I look for Deshaun Watson to have an absolute field day in this one and while the Texans defense isn't great, they should have no problem slowing down this Detroit offense. Either way, Watson and the offense should score enough here to cash in an easy win and cover. Give me Houston -3! |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
50* RAMS/BUCS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -4) There's been a lot made of the Bucs struggles in prime time games, but I don't see that being an issue here. Tom Brady knows how to win these big games and I love that he's got a full compliment of weapons at his disposal against the Rams. I know LA's defense has put up great numbers and just had a great game last week against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, but I'm just not buying into them being as good as their numbers. Rams have played a pretty easy schedule. They started the season with 4 of their first 5 games against the NFC East. Their other 5 opponents have been the Bills (L), 49ers (L), Bears (W), Dolphins (L) and Seahawks (W). I also think not enough is being made here of the fact that the Rams won't have left tackle Andrew Witworth. He's one of the best at his position. There's a massive drop off from Witworth and backup Joe Noteboom. I see that being a big problem against a really strong Tampa Bay defensive front. It's also worth pointing out that LA's offense really needs to be able to run the ball to set up easy throws for Goff. Bucs have one of the best run defenses in the league, as they are allowing just 77 ypg an 3.3 yards/carry vs the run this year. Give me the Bucs -4! |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings -7 | 31-28 | Loss | -101 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/COWBOYS NFL STEAMROLLER (Vikings -7) No need to overthink this one. I don't care that the Cowboys are off their bye week and the last time we saw them they nearly won outright as a 14-point home dog to the Steelers. This is still an awful team and I'm shocked they are even considering about going back to Andy Dalton. On top of this, the Vikings are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Minnesota has won 3 straight. They did barely scrape by with a 19-13 win at Chicago last week, but that was the Bears defense and their ability to slow down Cook. Cowboys run defense is awful. I look for Cook to have a big game and that's going to make life easy for Cousins against an equally bad Cowboys secondary. I'm shocked this line isn't more than a touchdown. Give me the Vikings -7! |
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11-22-20 | Packers +1.5 v. Colts | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
50* PACKERS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Packers +1.5) I love the value here with Green Bay catching points against the Colts. I know Indianapolis has a great defense, but it's more suited to stop the run than it is the pass. I just think with the Packers recent struggles we are getting them at a great price in a great matchup. Not only do I love the matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense when they have the ball, but I also think it's a great matchup for the Green Bay defense. The Packers biggest weakness is their run defense and running the ball is far from the strength of this Colts team. Indy is only averaging 3.8 yards/carry and that's against teams who give up on average 4.3 yards/carry. I also just don't trust Philip Rivers in this spot. As a starter, Rivers is just 11-21 ATS in his last 32 starts at home as a favorite. Green Bay is also a great bet after a game where they failed to cover. Packers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a ATS loss. Give me Green Bay +1.5! |
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11-22-20 | Titans v. Ravens -6 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
40* TITANS/RAVENS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Ravens -6) I'm going to take the Baltimore Ravens -6.5 at home against the Tennessee Titans. I just think this is the ideal spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens are a pissed off bunch after an ugly 17-23 loss at New England. Baltimore won the yardage battle 357 to 308, but just a few plays here and there that really set the offense back. Not to mention mother nature played a big role with wind and rain. I still think this Ravens team is still one of the best teams in the league and while everyone has been quick to jump off the Lamar bandwagon, I think he's going to have himself a big day here against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 26.1 ppg, 398 ypg and 5.9 yards/play. They have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. Not only are they giving up a lot of points, but their offense has cooled off considerably since the start of the year. Tennessee averaged 32.8 ppg on their way to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule that had them play the Broncos, Jags, Vikings, Bills and Texans. Since that 5-0 start they are 1-3 with their only win over a equally overrated Bears team. During this 1-3 stretch they are only averaging 21.3 ppg Lastly, this is not just another game for Baltimore. The Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC Last year and would lose 28-12 at home to the Titans. Tennessee couldn't have got much luckier in that game. Baltimore somehow managed just 12 points with Jackson throwing for 365 yards and rushing for 143. Ravens said after the game that they were to blame for not giving the Titans their full attention. You can't say that and not show up with something to prove the next time you play. I'll gladly take my chances with the Ravens winning here by at least a touchdown. Give me Baltimore -6! |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
40* STEELERS/JAGUARS NFL NO-BRAINER (Jaguars +10.5) I went against the Steelers last week and paid the price, as Pittsburgh laid it on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Looking back that wasn't a great play given the Steelers were off that ugly game against the Cowboys. Losing that play is not going to keep me from fading Pittsburgh this week at Jacksonville. This is a bit of a trap game for the Steelers, as they got a huge home game on deck against division rival Baltimore on Thanksgiving night. The other big thing here is that this Jaguars team has continued to come out and play hard. Jaguars nearly won outright as a 14-point dog last week at Green Bay, losing 20-24. The week before they only lost by 2 to the Texans as a 7-point dog. It's also worth pointing out that for whatever reason the Steelers just don't seem to play well against this Jaguars team. In his career, Ben Roethlisberger is just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in 10 starts vs Jacksonville. Steelers are also a mere 1-9 ATS last 10 times they have been a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. Give me the Jaguars +10.5! |
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11-22-20 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team -1 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
40* BENGALS/FOOTBALL TEAM NFL SHARP STAKE (Washington -1) I think we are getting too good a price here to pass up with Washington at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Joe Burrow and that Cincinnati offense got a bit of a wakeup call last week, as Burrow went just 21 of 40 for 213 yards and the Bengals managed just 10 points. Burrow was sacked 4 times in that game and I just wonder how that Cincinnati offensive line is going to hold up against a really good Washington defensive line. I really think the Bengals are going to find it hard to move the ball in this game. While the Football Team comes in off a 30-27 loss at Detroit, I think they gained some momentum in defeat. Alex Smith rallied this team from a 21-point deficit and wound up throwing for 390 yards. I think Smith is in store for another big game here. Lot of people overlook the fact that Washington is a few breaks away from being on a 4-game winning streak. They are just 1-3 in their last 4, but all 3 losses were by 3-points or less. I think we are getting a great price on the better team, playing at home. Give me Washington -1! |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 82 h 38 m | Show |
50* CARDINALS/SEAHAWKS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY on Seahawks -3 I will gladly lay just a field goal at home with the Seahawks on a short week against a division rival in Arizona. There's a lot to like about Seattle in this spot. For one, everyone is down on this team after back-to-back losses, including an ugly 16-23 loss at the Rams last week. Russell Wilson has went from MVP frontrunner to a guy taking a lot of the blame for the team losing with his costly turnovers. Factor all that with the fact that Seattle will be out for revenge from a loss to Arizona earlier this season and I just think we are going to get a big time performance out of not just Wilson but this entire team. At the same time, I think Arizona could struggle in this spot. They are coming off a crazy Hail Mary win over the Bills and it could be hard for them to not have a lull after such an emotional high a few days ago. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 ATS under Pete Carroll in home games off a division loss by 7 points or less and have not just won in this spot, they have dominated by an average score of 31.7 to 16.3 Seahawks are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 revenging a loss of 7-points or less and 20-10 in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me Seattle -3! |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
50* VIKINGS/BEARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bears +3.5) Love Chicago as a small home dog on MNF. I was hoping the line would get past 3, as the hook is huge. Bears always seem to be in close games. That's not saying I think they will need it. I'm going to bet on Chicago's defense and hope we get something from an offense that will have a new look to it. Let's look at the defense first. Bears have had their way with Minnesota's offense since Cousins came to town. Chicago has swept the season series each of the last two years. All 4 games they held the Vikings offense to 20 or less. A big reason they succeed against the Vikings, is they have been able to contain Dalvin Cook. In 3 games against the Bears he's totaled just 86 yards on 34 carries, which is a mere 2.5 yards/carry. Cousins just isn't good enough to win the game on his own against an elite secondary like Chicago. Not to mention he's 0-9 in his career as a starter on Monday Night Football. First things first with the Bears offense, the offensive line is a major concern. There's reason to be optimistic that it can make do in this one. Vikings have one of the worst defensive lines in the league. Chicago is also changing things up with the play calling. Head coach Matt Nagy is giving up the duties to Bill Lazor. They also may get a spark at RB, as Lamar Miller is set to make his debut tonight. Give me the Bears +3.5! |
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11-15-20 | Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 36 m | Show | |
40* BENGALS/STEELERS NFL NO-BRAINER (Bengals +7.5) I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This just feels like a few too many points for the Steelers to be laying at home in this spot. I know the Steelers didn't cover in last week's game against Dallas and nearly lost outright as a two touchdown favorite, but most will just chalk that up as a letdown following their big win against the Ravens. Just because they didn't cover in that game doesn't mean they are going to be showing value this week. The books know this is a team the public wants to bet and are going to put a premium on them. I feel like that's exactly what we have here. I still have major concerns with the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is 5th in the NFL scoring 29.4 ppg, but are way back at 25th in the league in total offense at 341.0 ypg. Nothing speaks more to this than the fact that they had to scratch and claw their way to 24 points against an awful Dallas defense. If the Cowboys can give this offense fits, so can the Bengals. As for Cincinnati's offense facing off against a good Steelers defense, I think they can move the ball. Joe Burrow has lived up to the hype of being the No. 1 overall pick and then some. He's currently 8th in the NFL averaging 284 passing yards/game, ahead of the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray and Drew Brees. If you go back to his days with LSU, Burrow has gone a ridiculous 19-6 (76%) ATS in his last 25 starts. Another huge factor here is rest. Pittsburgh has had to play each of the last 3 weeks on the road, as a result of their original Week 8 bye being moved to Week 4 because of their Week 4 game against the Titans getting postponed due to covid. While the Steelers are running on fumes, Cincinnati is going to be extremely fresh coming off their bye week. Give me the Bengals +7.5! |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks v. Rams -1 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show | |
40* SEAHAWKS/RAMS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Rams -1) I played and lost on the Seahawks last week. I just want to note that even had Seattle went on to win, I still would be looking to play the Rams at this price. This is an ideal spot to play on Los Angeles, who I have to think has had two really good weeks of practice with their upcoming schedule. After this game they are at Tampa Bay before hosting the 49ers and visiting Arizona (3 division games and 1 of the NFC's best). As for the Seahawks, I think we could see a bit of a letdown here. Seattle had to make the long trip clear across the country to play Buffalo and while it's a much shorter trip, they are on the road again this week. I also was expecting a lot more out of that defense with the guys they added into the mix. There's clearly still a lot of problems in that secondary. I'm confident McShay will have a gameplan in place to exploit that weakness to the fullest. Give me the Rams -1! |
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11-15-20 | 49ers +10 v. Saints | 13-27 | Loss | -121 | 74 h 52 m | Show | |
40* 49ERS/SAINTS NFL ATS MASSACRE (49ers +10) I will gladly take the double-digits with San Francisco. Everyone has thrown this 49ers team under the bus, but if you watch this SF team, you know there's no quit in them. They are going to keep coming at you no matter who is out of the lineup. This team is also fresh, as they have been off since last Thursday. While we can expect a max effort here from the 49ers, this is a really tough spot for New Orleans. The Saints just played their biggest game of the season. One they won 38-3 despite very few people giving them a chance of winning the game. It's human nature to relax a little after a win of that magnitude, especially when your next game is against a team that you know you are better than. Give me the 49ers +10! |
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11-15-20 | Chargers +3 v. Dolphins | 21-29 | Loss | -120 | 97 h 13 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/DOLPHINS NFL STEAMROLLER (Chargers +3) I know the Chargers have a way of finding ways to lose games, but every team loses games they should win. It's just magnified when a team does it a lot in a short period of time. This trend only last for so long. You are going to start winning games if you have leads in the 4th quarter every time out. I'm a really big Justin Herbert fan. I think the Chargers struck gold with him. If LA was winning these close games instead of losing them, the media hype on Herbert would be 10x more than it is now. He's played 1 fewer game than a lot of guys, so he's just No. 11 in yards, but he's 3rd in the league at 306.6 ypg. Only Dak and Russell Wilson are ahead of him. It's not just the yards either. Herbert is not making the costly mistakes at the rate we typically see from young QBs. He's got 17 TD passes to just 5 interceptions. I just trust the Chargers offense a lot more. Miam's 2-0 since Tua took over, but have not moved the ball great. They only had 145 total yards and 3.0 yards/play in his first start against the Rams. They put up 34 points on Arizona, but only had 312 yards and 5.6 yards/play. I think Tua and that Dolphins offense will find it really hard to score against a Chargers defense that is strong at the point of attack. Give me LA +3! |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -2 | Top | 30-32 | Push | 0 | 74 h 36 m | Show |
50* BILLS/CARDINALS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -2) I will gladly sell high on the Bills after their big win over the Seahawks last week. I just don't trust Josh Allen, especially on the road. Arizona's defense isn't great, but it is a little better at defending the pass than the run, which is great against a Bills team that can't run the ball. On top of that, the Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated in this spot. Arizona was just upset at home 34-31 by the Dolphins. It's a game that couldn't have set well with the players, as they outgained Miami 442 to 312. I look for Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense to have a field day here. Unlike the Seahawks, who couldn't get the run game going against a bad Bills run defense, Arizona will run all over this defense. Cardinals have rushed for 100+ yards in every game. Give me the Cardinals -2! |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 71 h 40 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/TEXANS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -3) I just can't pass up the Browns as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Texans. The books just can't get a price right on Houston. The Texans are just 1-7 ATS this season. They aren't just not covering, they are a mere 2-6 SU. I think Houston is really struggling with the reality of not being a playoff team, which they definitely thought they were coming into the year. There's just not enough weapons offensively and the defense can't stop anybody. They just let a 6th round rookie in his first start throw all over them. The big key here being they aren't good against the run and we know that if the Browns can get their running game going, this offense can really move the football up and down the field. The Texans don't have a running game to fall back on and that's going to make it much easier for Cleveland to put them in some 3rd and long situations and get them off the field. Give me the Browns -3! |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | Top | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 70 h 27 m | Show |
50* BUCS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -5.5) I couldn't have been more wrong with Tom Brady and the Bucs in last week's game at home against the Saints on Sunday Night Football. It happens. Tampa Bay got punched in the mouth early and just couldn't get back up off the mat. It can be hard to trust a team that looked that bad in their last game, but I love backing good teams in this spot, especially ones with a top tier quarterback. I fully expect Brady and the Bucs to play one of their best games of the season. All anyone is talking about is "Teddy Covers", but I just think the Panthers are not the same team without Christian McCaffrey. I just don't think that o-line will be able to hold up against Tampa's pass rush. Give me the Bucs -5.5! |
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11-12-20 | Colts +121 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 121 | 56 h 19 m | Show |
50* COLTS/TITANS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Colts +121) I'm going to take the Colts on the money line Thursday night against the Titans. I liked Indianapolis in this matchup when I looked ahead to this game prior to Sunday's games and like it that much more after the books opened Tennessee at less than a FG favorite at home. They are begging the public to take the Titans and so far that's been the case with close to 70% action on Tennessee. I just don't think the Titans are anywhere close to as good as their 6-2 record. A big reason is their defense. They just aren't as strong on that side of the ball as they were a year ago. Tennessee is giving up 25 ppg and 394 ypg, while also allowing nearly 5.8 yards/play. The Colts are only giving up 20.0 ppg, 290 ypg and 5.0 yards/play. Even in their loss to the Ravens the defense did their part, holding Lamar Jackson and Baltimore to just 266 total yards. Most impressively holding the league's top ranked rushing attack to just 110 yards on 38 attempts. I think Indy is going to able to keep Henry in check and if you can do that, it takes away a lot of Tannehill's big plays in play action. On the flip side, I think Philip Rivers and this Colts offense will be able to move the ball and put up points. Give me Indianapolis +121! |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
40* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Under 41.5) This game has a defensive battle written all over it, there's just not a lot to get excited about with either offense in this game. Cam Newton has been a massive disappointment since returning from Covid. In 3 starts his highest passing output is 174 yards. He has not thrown a single TD pass and has thrown 5 interceptions. He's also been sacked 7 times. I expect Belichick to come into this game looking to establish the run. He knows his defense will be able to slow down that awful Jets offense. Thing is, Jets have a decent run defense and should get a boost playing at home on MNF against a team you hate to the core. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, I think that NY defense will hold its own. The Jets haven't scored more than 10 points in 4 straight games. It hasn't been much better for New England, which had scored 12 or fewer in 3 straight before scoring a mere 21 last week at Buffalo. It wouldn't surprise me at all if both teams failed to score 20. Give me the UNDER 41.5! |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
50* SAINTS/BUCS NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bucs -4) I love Tom Brady and the Bucs at this price. I don't know how you can bet against Tampa Bay in this spot. How many prime time home games did Brady ever let New England lose, especially in the 2nd half of the season? Like it or not the Bucs have assembled quite the super team in the NFC and will be debuting Antonio Brown this week. If Brown can just shut up and play football, this could be quite the combo in TB. While it make take a game or two for Brown to get up to speed, keep in mind he does have some built up chemistry with Brown from his brief stint with the Pats last year. I know New Orleans is getting back their star wide out in Michael Thomas, but I'm just not convinced he's going to fix this offense. Brees just doesn't have the arm strength to threat defenses with the deep pass. I think it could be a recipe for disaster against a Bucs defense that likes to play downhill. We all saw what this defense did when it was locked in against Rodgers and the Packers a few weeks ago. I simply trust the Bucs offense a lot more to move the ball and put up points in this one. Brady and Tampa Bay get their revenge from an earlier loss at New Orleans (Week 1 and Brady played bad). Give me the Bucs -4! |
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11-08-20 | Raiders v. Chargers | 31-26 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
40* RAIDERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers PK) While I was happy the Chargers collapsed in last week's shocking 30-31 loss to the Broncos (I had Denver +3), I think it has Los Angeles a bit undervalued here at home against the Raiders. I don't know if it's because the Raiders are now in Las Vegas, but the public really seems to love this team. Coming off a 16-6 win in nearly the same role last week at Cleveland, the public is all over the Raiders here at basically a pick'em on the road against a division rival. I just don't see what people love about this team. Raiders got a decent offense, but I would take Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense over them. Raiders are averaging 379 yards/game and 5.9 yards/play. Good, but LA is averaging 417 ypg and 6 yards/play. Defensively Las Vegas is a clear step behind. The Raiders are giving up 29.0 ppg, 378 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. They are also giving up 140 rushing yards/game and 5.1 yards/carry on the road this year. I just think LA is the better team in this one. Give me the Chargers PK! |
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11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | 27-25 | Loss | -109 | 140 h 20 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/JAGUARS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Texans -6.5) As difficult as it may be to lay almost a touchdown on the road with a team that is sitting at 1-6 going into Week 9, I can't help myself but to play the Texans on Sunday. I know the chances are slim but I guarantee you this Texans team still believes they can get back into the playoff race. When you look at the schedule, it's not all that crazy. Houston's last 9 games are @ Jags, @ Browns, vs Pats, @ Lions, vs Colts, @ Bears, @ Colts, vs Bengals and vs Texans. They might be favored in as many as 6 of those and all 9 are winnable. While the Texans are holding onto what little hope they have, the Jaguars are starting to look ahead to the future. With Gardner Minshew out of the lineup with a thumb injury, Jacksonville is turning to 6th round rookie Jake Luton to see what he's got. Note veteran Mike Glennon has been the backup in every game up this point and was just passed over. I not only think Luton is behind the 8-ball, as he's a guy that probably really would have benefited from preseason games. I also wonder if Jacksonville isn't trying to lose while making it appear they are playing to win. There's no bath back to the postseason for this team, especially with Minshew sidelined. Houston already beat the Jags 30-14 at home early this season and there was nothing fluky about that result. I'm confident they can go into Jacksonville and win by at least 7. Give me the Texans -6.5! |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Bills | 34-44 | Loss | -118 | 99 h 45 m | Show | |
40* SEAHAWKS/BILLS NFL NO-BRAINER (Seahawks -2.5) I'm going to take the Seattle Seahawks -2.5 on the road against the Buffalo Bills. I know this is going to be a big public play and small road favorites have a way of coming up short in the NFL, but I just can't help myself. I'm just not a believer in this Bills team. I especially don't think they are as good as their 6-2 record, which is currently tied with GB and TB for the 3rd best record in the league. No bigger reason screams that Buffalo record is not all it seems than the fact that 2 of their 6 wins are against the Jets. And let's not overlook that while they won both, they unlike almost every other team struggled to be the Jets in both meetings. They have 3 more wins by a field goal or less. One of those being last week's win over the Patriots. A win is a win, but if Cam Newton doesn't fumble late in the 4th quarter, that game at worst goes to OT, as NE was well within field goal range. They were on the 19 with 40 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts in their pocket. I get the Bills hadn't beat the Pats at home since 2011 and that's a huge win for them in regards to winning the division, but let's not just overlook how bad the Patriots were playing going into that game. The big thing that stands out to me is the defense just can't stop the run. They are giving up 134 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry. I know the run game isn't exactly Seattle's strength, but if you can't stop the run, it makes it near impossible to stop Russell Wilson. Lastly and the biggest reason I'm willing to roll the dice with Seattle is I think this team is on the verge of turning the corner on the defensive side of the ball. We definitely saw some flashes on that side in last week's game against the 49ers. San Francisco ended up scoring 27, but the 49ers only had 7 points with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th. This week Seattle's defense will be adding in defensive end Carlos Dunlap, who they made a trade for prior to the 49ers came, but because of covid rules had to sit out that game. They also will be getting back star safety Jamal Adams from injury and it's expected that Damon "Snacks" Harrison will be making his debut after spending the last 3 weeks on the practice squad getting back into game shape. This team has gone 6-1 with a defense that has been performing at the bottom of the league. If they make any kind of significant improvement on that side of the ball, they might just be the team to beat with that offense. Either way, give me the Seahawks -2.5 on Sunday! |
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11-08-20 | Lions v. Vikings -4 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 41 m | Show | |
40* LIONS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Vikings -4) I'm going to jump on the Minnesota bandwagon, as it feels like the Vikings are playing much closer to what we expected to start the year and not what their 2-5 record would lead you to believe. I was really impressed with last week's win at Green Bay, as that was one I didn't see coming. I think that win could be a turning point. Usually if you start 2-5 you are dead in the water. I don't know that's the case. With 7 teams (may go to 8) making the playoffs this year, more teams have a shot. Also the Vikings have to believe they can get back to .500 before the stretch run. After hosting Detroit, they are @ Chicago, before 3 more home games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars. It's not out of the question this team is 7-5 or 6-6 going into their Week 14 showdown with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Dalvin Cook did it all for that offense against the Packers and when he's going good, this is a much stronger team. Seeing how the Lions are giving up 130 rushing yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, this should be another big week for Cook. The Lions are also just not a very good team. Stafford is questionable with Covid and they got all kinds of guys showing up on the injury report this week. Minnesota's been hit hard with injuries as well, especially on defense, but most of those came early. They clearly have made some improvements, as they gave up 43 points and over 500 yards to Green Bay back in Week 1. Give me the Vikings -4! |
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11-08-20 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -2.5 | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
40* GIANTS/REDSKINS NFL CASH COW (Football Team -2.5) I just feel like this is way too much value here with Washington laying less than a field goal at home against the Giants. This is all about the spot for me, which I feel heavily favors the home team. Washington is coming off their bye week, one in which they went into off a 25-3 blowout win over rival Dallas, which snapped a 5-game skid. Most are going to write off that win over the Cowboys and I don't blame them, but I still think it's huge that they went into their bye with a positive result. I believe it will carry over to a big effort against a division rival, one they nearly beat on the road a few weeks back, losing 19-20. Washington went for 2 instead of kicking the extra point after scoring a late TD. They also outgained the Giants 337 to 240. While Washington has had extra time to prepare, New York is playing on short rest after their big showdown with Tom Brady and the Bucs on Monday Night Football. Giants were competitive in a 23-25 loss as a 13-point dog and I think people are using the logic that if NY can play TB tough, they can easily beat Washington. I just don't know if that's a solid way of looking at it. The Giants aren't playing for anything but pride in 2020. You think they are going to have the same level of intensity on the road against a bad team they already beat as they had against Brady and the Bucs? I don't think so, and coming off that big game only makes it more likely they fall flat on their face in this one. Give me the Redskins -2.5! |
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11-08-20 | Ravens -2 v. Colts | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 99 h 33 m | Show |
50* RAVENS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -2) I absolutely love Baltimore in this spot. Everyone is down on the Ravens right now. This team has went from AFC favorite to many people's third best option behind KC and Pittsburgh. I know some key guys are out, but this is a deep and talented roster. This is the team I want to be backing with their backs against the wall. I know Lamar Jackson hasn't played well in some of their losses, but let's not overlook the fact that they outgained the Steelers last week 457 to 221. If they don't turn it over 4 times, they win that game going away. Keep in mind Baltimore only had 5 turnovers all season before that game. No disrespect to the Colts, who I was on last week and have played a lot early on, but I just don't think home field is going to be enough for them to beat the Ravens in this spot. Indy was on the other end of a misleading scoreboard. Not saying Colts shouldn't have won, but they won by 20 despite only outgaining the Lions 366 to 326. I just don't think Indy as good as their 5-2 record. Their wins are against the Vikings (early on), Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. The only one of those teams with a winning record is Chicago, who is 5-3 with all 5 wins decided by 7 or fewer points. Give me the Ravens -2! |
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11-02-20 | Bucs -12 v. Giants | 25-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
40* BUCS/GIANTS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -12) I don't love laying big numbers like this, but I just can't get myself to take the Giants in this game. I just don't see how New York is going to move the football against this Bucs defense. In their last 3 games the Giants are averaging a respectable 25 ppg, but those 3 have come against their 3 division rivals. In the 4 games they have played outside the division, they are averaging a mere 11.8 ppg. I think a lot of attention with the Bucs falls on Tom Brady and the offense, but the defense has really caught my eye. Bucs are really strong up front. You can forget about running on this team. Tampa Bay is allowing a league low 66.0 rushing yards/game. A full 14 yards better than the next best team in the Colts, who give up 80 ypg and 24 ahead of No. 3 New Orleans who allows 91 ypg. They aren't as good against the pass, but still very formidable. They have held 4 of their 7 opponents under 210 yards passing. They are also T-3rd in the league with 25 sacks. That pass rush should have a field day here against a bad Giants offensive line. They really make opposing QBs play fast and if you have watched Daniel Jones that's not his strength. Even if Brady and the Bucs offense struggles some, which I don't think it will, they should have such great field position all night that winning here by two touchdowns should be no problem. Give me Tampa Bay -12! |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show | |
40* SAINTS/BEARS NFL STEAMROLLER (Bears +4.5) I played against the Bears on MNF and cashed relatively easy on the Rams -6. I just didn't love that spot at all for Chicago. It's the exact opposite this week. I'll take the 4.5-points with the Bears at home. I know the offense leaves a lot to be desired, but this Chicago defense is the real deal and I expect them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. Even if Michael Thomas plays, I still like the Bears to make it difficult on Drew Brees. One thing to note with the Saints. This will be their first game this season outdoors. Each of their first 6 have been in a dome, with 4 of the 6 at home. I'm also not so sure the Saints are as good as we thought. I think they caught a break playing the Bucs in Week 1. Their other 3 wins are against the Lions, Chargers and Panthers. All 3 decided by 6 or less. I also feel like this is a flat spot for New Orleans, having won 3 straight and having a huge division game on deck at Tampa Bay. Speaking of the Bucs, the Bears responded from their only other loss this year by beating Brady and the Bucs at home as a 3.5-point dog. Very similar spot. Give me Chicago +4.5! |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 54 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show | |
40* 49ERS/SEAHAWKS NFL DESTROYER (OVER 54) It's hard to not play the OVER at less than 55 with Seattle. I know this is a division game, but this Seahawks defense is really bad. They are giving up 479.2 yards/game. That's dead last in the NFL. The next worst is the Jaguars at 424.4 ypg. If it wasn't for the offense being as good as they are, I think this Seattle team would be viewed very differently. Even with how good the offense is, the Seahawks should have lost to the Vikings at home and easily could have lost to the Pats, Cowboys and Vikings. Basically, the Seahawks have to score 30 every game, because that's what their defense allows. I don't see this game against the 49ers being any different. What Kyle Shanahan is doing with what he has to work with on offense is something special. The guy is just a step ahead of most other OCs. As for the 49ers defense, I think they have looked great in their last two games. I also think they played a Pats offense that has no clue what they are doing right now and a very overrated Rams offense. Their other 4 opponents since Week 1 when they lost all those guys are the Dolphins, Eagles, Giants and Jets. They just haven't been up against anything like Russell Wilson and this Seattle offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched this 49ers defense for 350 yards and 3 scores. I see Wilson putting up similar numbers. Give me the OVER 54! |
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11-01-20 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 44 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/BRONCOS NFL CASH COW (Broncos +3) I think a lot of people are going to look at the Chargers as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Broncos and think they are undervalued. I just don't think that's the case. I've been on LA quite a bit since Herbert took over, but I think the books are making this a little too easy to take them. No one wants to take the Broncos and basically need them to win outright to cover. I watched the Chiefs/Broncos game last week and while it was a blowout, that Denver defense really gave Mahomes and that KC offense trouble. Chiefs only had 286 total yards of offense. Mahomes threw just 1 TD pass and it wasn't until the 4th quarter. With all the injuries that have been starting to pile up on the offensive line, I think that Denver front is going to get after Herbert and we see him come down to earth a little in this one. Broncos are 4-2 ATS this year and have been a dog in every game so far. They could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-4. Denver has thrived in this spot, going 12-3 ATS last 15 at home off a division loss by 10 or more. Not only do they cover, but they are winning by 12.5 ppg (28.2-15.7). Give me the Broncos +3! |
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11-01-20 | Rams v. Dolphins +3.5 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 143 h 32 m | Show | |
40* RAMS/DOLPHINS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +3.5) I’m going to take the Miami Dolphins +3.5 at home against the Los Angeles Rams. I think there’s a lot of uncertainty right now with Miami. Last time the Dolphins played was Week 6, which they won 24-0 over the Jets behind veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. To the surprise of everyone, Miami announced during their bye week that they would be replacing Fitzpatrick with rookie Tua Tagovailoa. Because Fitzpatrick was playing so well, I think it’s really hard for people to get excited about this move. They look at it as how can Tua be any better than what they got. I could be dead wrong here, but I think Tua is going to play extremely well right from the start. This is not 20 years ago. These young quarterbacks over the last 3-4 years are taking over the NFL, especially the top dogs. It wasn’t all Fitzpatrick either. Miami has a very underrated group of skill players and a defense that has a knack for bending but not breaking and creating turnovers when needed. The schedule also heavily favors the Dolphins in this matchup. Miami has a big edge in this game coming off of their bye week. On the flip side, the Rams are at a disadvantage having to play on short rest after their game against Chicago on MNF. Not to mention they are a west coast team that has to fly clear-across the country for an early start time. It’s also worth noting that the Rams have been on the move a lot in 2020. They opened at home, played two on the road, played one at home, played two more on the road, returned home to play Chicago and now are headed to Miami. With a bye week looming after this game, I wonder just how locked in LA’s players are going to be. I’m also still not 100% sold on this Rams team and that’s after I just played and won with them at -6 against Chicago on MNF. The Bears are clearly not as good as their record and their other 4 wins are all against the 4 teams from the NFC East. Give me the Dolphins +3.5! |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -2.5 | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 12 m | Show | |
40* RAIDERS/BROWNS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -2.5) I just can't help myself here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Raiders. I just don't know what the books see in this LV team. I get it, they beat the Chiefs, but how much of that was KC not playing their best? I think a lot. It's just hard to win in the NFL, especially on the road, when you have a defense as bad as the Raiders. Everyone talks about how bad Dallas' defense is and the Cowboys do rank dead last in the NFL, allowing 34.7 ppg. Las Vegas is right behind them at 32.8 ppg. They are giving up a horrific 6.4 yards/play and have not been able to stop the run or the pass. Browns won't have OBJ, but he didn't play much in Cleveland's last game and Mayfield had his best game of the year by far with 297 yards and 5 scores. Rashad Higgins filled in nicely and led the team with 6 catches for 110 yards. Big thing here is weather. There's a decent chance of rain with howling winds at close to 25 mph. It's going to be about who can run. Cleveland averages 5.1 yards/carry and will be facing a Raiders D that allows 4.6 ypc. Las Vegas only averages 4.0 yards/carry and Browns allow just 3.8 ypc. Give me Cleveland -2.5! |
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11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 31 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/LIONS NFL NO-BRAINER (Colts -2.5) I think we are getting an exceptional gift here with Indy laying less than a field goal at Detroit. The Colts will be returning from their bye, which means they will have a full two weeks to prepare for a bad Lions team. One that should be 2-4 if not for the Falcons completely botching the end of the game last week. I just don't see this Detroit offense being able to do a whole lot against a very good Colts defense. One that will be getting back one of their best players in linebacker Darius Leonard. He's been out the last two games and it's shown. In the two games he missed, Indy allowed 32 points and 385 yards in a loss at Cleveland and then 27 points and 398 to Joe Burrow and the Bengals. In the 4 games he played, Indy has not allowed more than 270 total yards. On the flip side of this, the Colts offense should be able to find some success against a bad Lions defense. Detroit is giving up 27.5 ppg 5.9 yards/play and 380 yards/game. They haven't really been good against the run or the pass. Give me the Colts -2.5! |
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11-01-20 | Steelers v. Ravens -3 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -125 | 143 h 31 m | Show |
50* STEELERS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3) I got no problem paying a little extra to get the Ravens down to -3, as I feel really good about them not losing at that price. To me it feels like when Baltimore got embarrassed at home by the Chiefs on MNF back in Week 3, people started questioning how good this Ravens team. I think that's a mistake. This team has won 3 straight since that loss. The first two weren't close, as they took out Washington 31-17 on the road and then beat the Bengals 27-3 at home. They did only beat the Eagles by 2, 30-28, but that was a very misleading score. Ravens took their foot off the gas in a game they were in complete control of and it nearly cost them. Now they are coming out of their bye week and everyone is calling for the Steelers to win this game. Even though Baltimore is the favorite, I think they kind of feel disrespected and are going to treat this more like they are the underdog. I think that makes them a real scary team in this spot. I like Pittsburgh, but I just don't know if they are as gooda s people think. Their two best wins are against the Titans and Browns. They have also benefited from getting to play 4 of 6 at home. First time all year they will be on the road in back-to-back weeks. I just feel the Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball. Give me Baltimore -3! |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -117 | 56 h 9 m | Show |
50* FALCONS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -2.5) I'm not sure why Atlanta is getting so much love as a small road dog. How many times can you lose a game in the horrific fashion that they have before the fight is taken out of you. The most recent being Todd Gurley's decision to score a TD when falling down and running out the clock was 100% the play. There's been audio released from the huddle prior to Gurley's run and you can clearly hear Matt Ryan tell him to get the 1-yard for the first down and go down. Do not score. I know Gurley is one guy, but that's all it takes. One guy puts himself (he's trying to score a TD for his bonus) ahead of the team and others follow. Carolina just gets no love. Panthers already went into Atlanta and beat the Falcons 23-16. Nothing fluky about that game, as Carolina had a 437 to 373 edge in total yards. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly having another monster season and this Panthers defense is better than people realize. Also, Falcons offense has been bad more than they have been good here of late. In their last 4 games they have scored 16, 16, 40 and 22. The 40-point outburst was against an awful Vikings defense. Give me the Panthers -2.5! |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
50* BEARS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -5) I'm laying it with the Rams at home against the Bears on Monday Night Football. The public is all over Chicago at this price, as they see a Bears team off back-to-back upset wins against the Bucs and Panthers, facing off against a Rams team that just lost as a favorite at San Francisco and is just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Public dogs have a way of falling flat on their face, especially in prime time games. I get the Bears are a team built to win ugly with their defense and the offense is in better hands with Nick Foles under center. I just don't think this team is as good as their 5-1 record. Clearly the oddsmakers agree or this line would be much closer to LA -3. You definitely have to look at the Rams loss to the 49ers in a different way after what we saw on Sunday with San Fran going into New England and beating a desperate Pats team 33-6. The 49ers are playing out of their minds with the injuries they have been dealt. I just wonder if the Rams didn't give them their full attention in that game. Note that the 49ers came into that contest fresh off a 43-17 loss at home to the Dolphins. While it's struggled in spurts, I like what this Rams offense has been able to do. They are averaging 6.2 yards/play against teams that only allow 5.7 yards/play. Bears only average 5.0 yards/play vs teams allowing 5.7. Rams defense only giving up 5.2 yards/play, which is better than the 5.4 mark for Chicago. Give me the Rams -5! |
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10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 30 m | Show |
50* 49ERS/PATS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -2.5) I think this is an ideal spot to buy low on the Patriots off a shocking upset loss at home to the Broncos and a great to sell high on the 49ers after an upset win at home over the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The big thing you have to keep in mind with the loss to Denver is the Patriots really didn’t get to practice for that game because of Covid. New England is set to practice today and it will be just their 3rd full practice in the month of October. I think we are going to see a huge bounce back game for the Patriots on Sunday and a big reason for that is I’m just not buying into this 49ers team being as good as people think. No one was really giving San Fran a shot against the Rams, but I actually like the 49ers in that game. A big reason for that is I didn’t think LA was all that great. The Rams were 4-1, but those 4 wins were against the 4 NFC East teams. They did lose by just 3 at Buffalo, but they also trailed 28-3 in the 2nd half of that game. I also thought it was concerning that the Rams only scored 20 points against that awful Cowboys defense in Week 1. They also had just 17 points and 240 yards against a bad Giants team. Outside if that win, the 49ers only other victories this season are against the Jets and Giants. They lost to a depleted Eagles team at home and two weeks ago were absolutely destroyed at home 43-17 by the Dolphins. When I gave out NE on the podcast back in Week 3 against the Raiders, I noted how Belichick was not going to let Las Vegas star tight end Darren Waller beat them. Coming into that game Waller had caught 18 passes for 150 yards. He was a complete non-factor, catching just 2 passes for 9 yards. They are going to do the exact same thing with 49ers tight end George Kittle in this one. I also think it’s worth noting that no one knows San Fran quarterback Jimmy G better than Belichick. He’s going to gear up his defense to not only stop Kittle, but also play to the weaknesses of Garoppolo. Give me the Patriots -2.5! |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -3 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 90 h 55 m | Show |
50* BUCS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -3) I loved Tampa Bay at -3 when this line opened. I just think this Bucs team is only getting better and last week's demolition of Rodgers and the Packers certainly suggest that. There's been some Covid issues for Oakland and the line is now -5 at most books. I still love the Bucs at that price. I think the Raiders are a fraud right now with a winning record of 3-2. Last time we saw this team in Week 5, they upset the Chiefs 40-32 in KC as a 10-point dog. The defense was torched once again and I just think the offense caught that Chiefs defense in the perfect spot. KC's D was due for a letdown after their early schedule. Say what you want about Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense, but this defense is the real deal. The talk after that game against Rodgers and the Packers was not about how good they were, but how they needed to prove it in their game this week against the Raiders. I just think Tampa Bay is going to win here and win rather convincingly. Play the Bucs -3! |
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10-25-20 | Browns -3 v. Bengals | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 121 h 2 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/BENGALS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -3) For me I think it’s pretty simple when it comes to handicapping this Cleveland team. All you have to do is ask yourself will they be able to run the football. It was 100% the reason I gave out the Steelers last week. I knew it was going to be tough sledding for Baker Mayfield and that offense against an elite Pittsburgh run D. Cleveland managed just 75 rushing yards in that game and only 7 points. I look for the ground game to get right back in the swing of things in this game. In their 4-game win streak prior to the loss to the Steelers, they averaged 201 rushing yards/game. The Bengals are currently 27th against the run, giving up 142.3 ypg.Not great, but it could be worse. They are T-31st in the league, giving up 5.1 yards/carry. Last week they held the Colts to just 59 yards, but Indy only ran it 15 times. Note that Colts starting RB Johnathan Taylor had 60 yards on 12 attempts, which is exactly 5 yards a pop.Big reason Indy didn’t run it more, is they were down 21-0 basically a quarter into the game. The other thing to note with that game against the Colts, is the fact that Cincinnati’s defense let Philip Rivers throw for 371 yards and 3 scores. Rivers hadn’t thrown for more than 245 yards in a game all season and really looked like he was holding that team back. I think that’s a very encouraging sign for Mayfield in this game. In that Week 2 meeting between these two teams, Cleveland had 215 rushing yards and Mayfield was 16 of 23 for 219 yards and 2 scores. On the other side of the ball, Burrow is going to have to be great just to keep this close, because they aren’t going to be able to run it. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing and the Browns are 4th in the NFL, allowing just 94.0 ypg on the ground. I think Myles Garrett and that Cleveland defense will be able to pin their ears back and go after Burrow, who has already been sacked 24 times in 6 games. I just think the Bengals get a little too much love from people because of Burrow. He's really good, but this Cincinnati team is not, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the Browns -3! |
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10-25-20 | Packers v. Texans OVER 56.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 50 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/TEXANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 56.5) I think the best game in terms of entertainment is going to be the showdown between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs Deshaun Watson and the Texans. I see both quarterbacks putting on a show and for these two teams to fly past the total here of 56.5. Rodgers and the Packers got embarrassed last week by Tampa Bay's defense. Whenever a elite QB like Rodgers has an awful performance, they almost always find a way to not just play well, but play great in their next game. This Texans defense is one that GB can expose. While I expect the offense to bounce back, I don't have the same confidence with the Green Bay defense. There's still a lot of holes on that side of the ball. I expect a tough day against a surging Texans' offense. Ever since O'Brien was fired Watson and the passing game have come to life. He's getting a chance to do more and that's how it should have been. O'Brien was more about running his offense than implementing an offense to fit his talent. Give me the OVER 56.5! |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5 | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 87 h 49 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/REDSKINS NFL SLAUGHTER (UNDER 46.5) After watching Andy Dalton and that Cowboys offense struggle to get anything going against a bad Cardinals defense, I got no choice but to play the UNDER at this price, especially against an anemic Redskins offense. Now I will say I would lean Washington to win the game, but I just don't like playing a game with two bad teams. I was one that thought Dallas' offense was going to be okay with Dalton. I just didn't realize it was as bad as it is on the offensive line. That was a below-average defensive front they just faced in the Cardinals, who were without their stud in Chandler Jones. The Redskins are not below-average up front on defense. In fact, I think the defensive line is the best position group on the team, led by star rookie Chase Young. I just don't see Dalton and that Cowboys offense doing much. Redskins have their own limitations on offense. I know they will likely move the ball against this Cowboys defense, but I don't think they are going to go pass-happy with a lead. Rivera will milk that clock and secure a much-needed win for his team. Play the UNDER 46.5! |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* GIANTS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles -4.5) I know the Eagles are going to be a very public play, but I just can't find a legit reason to take the Giants in this matchup. I know the numbers aren't great for Carson Wentz, who has a 8-9 TD-INT ratio, but a lot of that is he's being forced to put this team on his back with all the injuries they have had on the offensive side of the ball. Losing RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz doesn't look good, but they are getting back WR DeSean Jackson and LT Lane Johnson. I actually think the injuries to Sanders and Ertz have created some value. More than anything this about who they are playing. The Giants defense is not great. Last week against a Washington team that ranked 30th in OFF DVOA and by some metrics were the worst passing offense in the NFL, they let Kyle Allen complete 31 of 42 attempts for 280 yards and 2 scores. That was with next to nothing from the running game (86 yards on 24 attempts). To me the "Football Team" is a poor man's version of this current Eagles offense. Somehow the Giants won that game, despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards (337 to 240). On the flip side of things, I question how this Daniel Jones led Giants offense will be able to move the ball. The fact that Jones is New York's leading rusher on the season with 204 yards says all you need to know about their offensive line. The Eagles still have one of the better defensive lines in the game, they are 4th in the NFL with 21 sacks and also 4th in adjusted sack rate, which factors in the number of sacks based on how often the QB drops back to pass. You also have to like the fact that the Eagles have played 5 times on TNF since Doug Pederson took over as head coach. Not only have they won all 5, but they are 5-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points/game. Give me Philadelphia -4.5! |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs -5 v. Bills | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/BILLS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -5) I really like the Chiefs in this spot. Last week's loss to the Raiders didn't surprise me. That just felt like a game to me that KC was going to struggle to get up for. Chiefs had just played two massive games against the Ravens and Patriots, which they felt like they had to have to get the No. 1 seed. Getting that No. 1 seed is huge, as that's the only team that gets a bye in the playoffs now. I expect to see the Chiefs 100% locked in here against Buffalo, who is another one of those teams that are a contender for that No. 1 seed. I think we see that same team that owned the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back. I'm confident Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to move the ball against this Bills defense. Buffalo has really struggled on that side.As for KC's defense, I think they are going to bounce back in a big way here. This is a defense that got better and better as last year went on and prior to giving up 40 to the Raiders they had held their first 4 opponents to 20 or less. Josh Allen is the kind of QB they typically play well. Give me the Chiefs -5! |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5 | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/BUCS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 54.5) I don't know who is going to win this game. Green Bay has looked like the better team to this point, but I want nothing to do with betting against Tom Brady after a game where he's getting made fun of cause he didn't know what down it was. I believe the value here is with the OVER at 54.5. I really think both of these quarterbacks are going to put on a show and we could see both teams score in the 30s. This is not Aaron Rodgers of the last few years. This is MVP Rodgers we are seeing in 2020. Green Bay has carved up every team they have faced. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 340 against this defense earlier this season and rookie Justin Herbert was 20 of 25 for 278. Rodgers will produce. Brady and the Bucs offense was starting to get something figured out before that dud against the Bears on Thursday Night Football. I just think TB on short rest with the travel really helped out Chicago in that game. Green Bay's defense has also not been very good. It's just not getting any attention because of how good the offense has been. Packers are giving up 4.8 yards/carry (28th), while opposing QBs are completing 72.2% of their attempts with 7.4 yards/pass attempt. Give me the OVER 54.5! |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 119 h 16 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -3.5) I’m going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at home against the Cleveland Browns. I said this last week when I took the Colts as a road favorite over the Browns, I’m not a believer in this team. I just don’t think Baker Mayfield is as good as people think. He had two second half interceptions against Indy with Cleveland leading by two scores. Now he’s going to have to be the focal point of the offense in this one, as the Steelers feature one of the league’s best run defenses. Pittsburgh is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 64.0 yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry. I just don’t see the Browns offense being able to score enough to give them any shot at covering this small number. This is also not just another game for the Steelers. As much as they will downplay it, there’s no doubt they are going to come in with a different mindset for this one, as it’s the first time they will face Cleveland with Myles Garrett since he swung a helmet at Mason Rudolph that led to him being suspended for most of last year. Another big factor here is the Steelers dominance of the Browns on their home field. Pittsburgh has won 16 straight at home over Cleveland with the last loss coming in 2003, which is one year before the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger. Adding to this, Steelers are 23-2 against the Browns with Roethlisberger as their QB home or away. Give me the Steelers -3.5. |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 43 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/TITANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Texans +3.5) Last week we won easily with Houston -6 vs Jacksonville, as the Texans cruised to a 30-14 win. That was a big play on spot for Houston in that first game after firing head coach Bill O'Brien. What I loved is there was a clear breaking point between the players. I believe it has the Texans players out to prove that O'Brien is in fact what was holding them back. Not only is Houston playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, but this might be the most talented 1-4 team in recent years. The Texans were simply dealt as brutal a schedule as you could get to start the year. Their first 3 games were @ KC, home vs Ravens and @ Steelers. They did lose to a bad Vikings team to fall to 0-4, but I think some of that was the team no longer wanting to play for O'Brien. The Titans are a good team. However, I think it might be time to sell high. Tennessee was in the AFC title game last year, are sitting 4-0 and off a convincing 42-16 win over an undefeated Bills team that everyone was in love with. Thing is they could be sitting here at 1-3, as their first 3 wins were all by 3 or fewer against the Broncos, Jags and Vikings (all 3 of those teams enter Week 6 with 1 win). Another huge factor here is rest. Tennessee is going to be playing on just 4 days of rest. That's tough in normal circumstances. I think it's going to be even harder on a team that is short-handed because of all the guys dealing with Covid. Give me the Texans +3.5! |
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10-18-20 | Falcons +4 v. Vikings | 40-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 33 m | Show | |
40* FALCONS/VIKINGS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Falcons +4) Last week we played on the Texans in their first game after they fired head coach Bill O'Brien and Houston delivered in a big way with a 30-14 win, easily covering as a -6 point favorite. This is a situational spot I've had a lot of success playing over the years. I just can't help myself here with Atlanta +4 at Minnesota in their first game after firing Dan Quinn. One of the reasons I believe this spot is profitable is whenever a bad team fires a coach it's like whatever happened before is tossed out the window and it's like starting a season all over. You can bank on that team playing their hearts out. I like a hungry Falcons team here. Atlanta is better than 0-5. They blew two massive leads against the Cowboys and Bears. There other 3 losses are against two SB contenders in the Seahawks and Packers and a very underrated Panthers team. As for the Vikings, they have looked a little bit better of late, but I'm still not sold on this team. They won't have Dalvin Cook this week and I still think that defense is a major liability. The other big thing here is I think this is a tough spot for Minnesota. The Vikings avoid going 0-4 with that big win over the Texans and looked like they were going to make it 2 straight with a big upset of Seattle. Mike Zimmer decides to go for it on 4th and 1 leading by 5, instead of kicking the field goal to go up 8. Seahawks make the stop and Russell Wilson goes 94 yards, converting twice on 4th down to win the game 27-26. Give me the Falcons +4! |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers -112 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -112 | 44 h 16 m | Show |
50* BEARS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -112) I love Carolina this week at basically a pick'em at home against one of the most overrated teams in the NFL in the Bears. I say that about Chicago, after I cashed with them on MNF vs Tom Brady and the Bucs. I did have some high hopes for the Bears when Foles replaced Trubisky, but we have not seen Foles look anything close to that 2nd half against Atlanta in his two starts since. Bears put up just 269 total yards against the Colts and 243 vs the Bucs. Carolina came into this season with the perception that they were going to be awful defensively. That looked to be true after they gave up 34 to the Raiders in Week 1 and 31 to the Bucks in Week 2. However, in their last 3 games they have held the Chargers to 16, Cardinals to 21 and the Falcons to 16. Panthers are quietly 5th in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 223.0 yards/game. They are bottom 10 against the run (133.4 ypg), but Chicago doesn't have a great rushing attack or passing game. Bears rank bottom 10 in both categories. I also think people are assuming this Bears defense will make life miserable for this Panthers offense. I don't think that will be the case at all. Joe Brady and Teddy Bridgewater are clicking together. Panthers are 5th in the NFL in passing (281.8 ypg). Also, no Christian McCaffrey the last 3 games. Mike Davis has been way better than expected, easing that loss. Give me the Panthers -112! |
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10-13-20 | Bills -3.5 v. Titans | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
50* BILLS/TITANS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bills -3.5) Even though I'm confident the Bills will cover, I would strongly recommend buying this down to Buffalo -3 (not an option when submitting picks). There's just too many factors in favor of Buffalo to not play them at this price. The Titans come into this game 3-0, but I've not been that impressed with this team. They could just as easily be 0-3. All 3 wins have come by 3-points or less. Tennessee has had little to no practice time for this game, as their facility has been shutdown. They also got several key guys out because of Covid. They are extremely thin at WR and while A.J. Brown is expected back from injury, he might not be 100%. The biggest thing for me is I don't see the Titans defense being able to contain Josh Allen and this Bills offense. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the pass (256.3 ypg) and 31st against the run (166.0 ypg). Titans do have two really good edge rushers in Clowney and Landry III, but they figure to be negated in this one, as Buffalo has two quality tackles in Dawkins and Williams. Give me the Bills -3.5! |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 155 h 53 m | Show |
50* CHARGERS/SAINTS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +7.5) I love the Chargers at this price. I don't think it's out of the question that they leave New Orleans with a win. This Saints team has not looked anything like the Super Bowl contender everyone was claiming before the season started. I just think a lot of people are holding on to what Brees and this team has done in the past on MNF. I could maybe see it if Michael Thomas was playing, but he's not and shockingly it's not because he's still injured. Thomas got in a fight with a teammate during a weekend practice and is being suspended by the team. Chargers run a similar defense to the Falcons, which has given the Saints offense trouble. We have seen this defense disrupt things for Patrick Mahomes and had Brady in the Bucs down big early. I could definitely see them making life tough on this dink and dunk offense that NO runs. All of this and I haven't mentioned the talented rookie QB the Chargers have in Herbert. I really think LA struck gold with this kid. Anthony Lynn is now the only thing holding this team back. I think Herbert will have success in this game. New Orleans is giving up 30.8 ppg. Give me the Chargers +7.5! |
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10-11-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Browns | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 44 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/BROWNS NFL *SHARP STAKE* on Colts -2.5 I really like the value here with Indianapolis at -1.5 on the road against the Browns. This feels like the perfect spot to fade Cleveland. Chances are the Browns cost a lot of you some money last week, as just about every square was on the Cowboys -3 at home. Not only did the Browns cover, they destroyed Dallas 49-38 in a game that wasn’t anywhere close to what the final score would indicate. That’s now 3 straight wins and back-to-back covers for Cleveland. Keep in mind this is a team a lot of people were on coming into the year, so this success is going to draw a lot of public money back on this team, especially as a home dog. As of right now, close to 60% of the tickets on this game are on the Browns. I could be dead wrong, but I don’t Cleveland is a serious contender. I see them as a very mediocre 8-8 type of team. They have simply taken advantage of a soft schedule, as their two other wins were at home against a couple of rebuilding teams in the Bengals and Redskins. I know every one thinks Dallas is this great team, but that defense the Cowboys are sending out on the field is one of the worst units I have ever seen. You also have to look at how the Browns are generating their offense. Baker Mayfield is in every other commercial right now and gets a lot of the attention, but he’s far from the reason this team is 3-1. In fact, Cleveland is 30th out of 32 teams in passing at 182.5 ypg. It’s been the Browns ability to run the ball, as they lead the league with an average of 204.5 ypg. Moving the chains on the ground against this Colts defense is going to a much more difficult task than some of the teams they have racked up big yards against the last few weeks. Indianapolis has the No. 4 ranked run defense, giving up just 77.0 yards/game. Not only that, Cleveland will be playing without leading rusher Nick Chubb. I get they got a good back up Kareem Hunt, but the loss of Chub is a big deal. Part of the reason both those guys have been so good is they are fresh the entire game with how they split reps. Without that running game picking up big yards on 1st and 2nd down, we are going to see Mayfield forced to make a lot more big plays on 3rd and long. Oh and in case you wondering, the Colts are No. 1 in the league vs the pass, giving up just 159.3 ypg. I know Philip Rivers has really started to look old for the first time in his career, but this Cleveland defense is one he can exploit. Browns are 30th vs the pass giving up 310.5 ypg and are 27th in scoring, allowing 31.5 ppg. I really give the edge here to the Colts on both sides of the ball and that makes them an easy play with a spread that’s basically a pick’em. Give me Indy -1.5! |
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10-11-20 | Dolphins +8.5 v. 49ers | 43-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 17 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/49ERS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Dolphins +8.5) One of my biggest plays in Week 4 was the Eagles +7.5 on SNF against the 49ers. While I knew there was a good chance Philadelphia was going to play inspired after their 0-2-1 start and it being a prime time game, it was more of a fade of San Francisco. I can’t think of a team that’s been ravaged by injuries as much as the 49ers have been on both sides of the football. It just feels to me that this team is getting way too much respect for what they did a season ago in making it all the way to the Super Bowl. You have to wonder if this team played any other two teams besides the Jets and Giants in Weeks 2 and 3 if they wouldn’t be 0-4 instead of 2-2. The two New York teams are so much worse than the rest of the league it’s hard to believe. Not to mention that loss to the Cardinals is looking worse and worse with how poorly Arizona has played against some other mediocre teams. The loss to the Eagles is equally concerning. There’s absolutely no reason this team should be laying more than a TD against any team not named the Jets or Giants. Miami isn’t just capable of covering, they could definitely win this game outright. Give me the Dolphins +8.5! |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals v. Jets OVER 47 | 30-10 | Loss | -115 | 146 h 15 m | Show | |
40* CARDS/JETS NFL *STEAMROLLER* Over 47 I see a ton of value with a total less than 50 in Sunday's matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. One of the big reasons the total is so low, is the Jets offense has really struggled to score and are now without starting Darnold. There's a lot worse options than veteran Joe Flacco and I just don't know that there's a massive drop off in the offensive potential with him under center. I also think this Arizona defense is a lot worse than people realize. Cardinals are only giving up 23.0 ppg, but are allowing 5.9 yards/play, giving up 4.5 yards/carry and 7.1 yards/pass attempt. Most would say the Jets defense is awful and it has been. What might surprise you is how similar the Cardinals defense has been outside of the points allowed. Jets give up 32.8 ppg but only 5.8 yards/play, 4.2 yards/carry and 7.4 yards/pass attempts. If the Jets can just get into the 20's here this thing should fly over. Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense should score early and often. Give me the OVER 47! |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53 | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 19 m | Show | |
40* PANTHERS/FALCONS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 53) These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this total. Both of these teams can get after you offensively and neither has a defense that is all that imposing. The loss of Christian McCaffrey has not slowed down this Panthers team. Carolina just racked up 444 yards in a 31-21 win over the Cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater thew for 276 yards and 2 scores, while the Panthers rushed for 168 yards on 35 attempts (4.8 yards/carry). I really think we are seeing the impact Joe Brady (new offensive coordinator) is having with this team. Bridgewater is also one of the more underrated quarterbacks out there. No reason to think that Carolina's offense won't be able to move the ball against this Atlanta defense. Falcons are 31st (ahead of only Seattle), giving up 448.3 ypg. Most of those coming via big pass plays, as they are 31st against the pass, allowing 341.5 ypg. Sure Atlanta's defense has had a difficult task facing Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers in 3 of their first 4, but they also gave up 30 points to the Bears, allowing Foles to throw three 4th quarter touchdowns. As far as the Falcons offense, we know they are going to put up points with Matt Ryan and that passing attack. Give me the OVER 53! |
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10-11-20 | Jaguars v. Texans -6 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show | |
40* JAGUARS/TEXANS NFL NO-BRAINER (Texans -6) A lot of people look at a team like Houston, who just fired their head coach, as a team that's in shambles. It's never good to be in a position that you need to make that kind of change, especially in Week 5. However, I've found a lot of success playing on teams in the first game after they fired their head coach. Now you can't just back this blindly. The Jets could fire Gase and I wouldn't even consider taking them in their next game. I think we are going to see the best game of the season out of this Houston team. The players clearly weren't a fan of O'Brien. Now they got to back it up. They are going to be so motivated to show that O'Brien is what was holding them back. What better team to get all that frustration out on than the Jaguars. The only reason the Jags are remotely competitive is they got a pretty decent QB in Minshew. The rest of the team is pretty trash if you ask me. All 4 teams they have faced have scored at least 28 points. While we haven't quite seen it so far this season, Watson and that Texans offense should be one of the better units in the league. Part of their struggles is their schedule. Not only have they faced 3 of the best teams, but 3 of the better defenses in the league in the Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers. Give me the Texans -6! |
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10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 56.5 | Top | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 119 h 15 m | Show |
50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5) I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter. The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting. Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats. Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57! |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 44 | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 14 m | Show | |
40* BUCCANEERS/BEARS NFL *VEGAS INSIDER (Over 44) I really like the OVER 44 between the Bears/Bucs on Thursday Night Football. It's almost to the point you just got to take the OVER with a total this low. Going into Monday Night Football in Week 4, out of 14 games, 11 had 45 or more points with 8 of those going for 50+. That includes a shootout last Thursday between two awful offensive teams, as the Broncos and Jets combined for 65. That game really speaks to just how hard it is on these defenses to play well in these Thursday games on short rest. You also have scoring up from a lack of fans and the refs not calling offensive holding near as much. The big reason this total is so low, is because of how bad the Bears looked in Nick Foles first start. Chicago got next to nothing going in a home loss to the Colts, scoring just 11 points on 269 total yards (only had 3 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th). Thing is that Indy defense is extremely difficult to pass on. In fact, the Colts lead the NFL in pass defense, giving up just 159.3 ypg. The Bucs defense is more geared toward stopping the run. I think Foles and that offense can provide enough spark in this one to push us past. As for Tampa Bay's offense, they are getting better and better as the season goes on. Tom Brady has not regressed like so many thought he would leaving NE. He threw 5 TDs in last week's come from behind win over the Chargers. He's going to want to play well in this one (prime time and rematch with Foles) and I expect him to do just that. Give me the OVER 44! |
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10-05-20 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49) I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think. In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer. All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second. As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games. Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49! |
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10-04-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 54 m | Show |
50* EAGLES/49ERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles +7.5) It's only been 3 weeks into the season and everyone can't stop talking about how bad the Eagles are playing, especially starting QB Carson Wentz. It hasn't been good, but I'm willing to give this team a shot here at this price. Not only do I think this is a good time to buy low on Philadelphia, but I also feel like this is the perfect spot to sell high on the 49ers. San Francisco has been absolutely decimated by injuries. There's too many to list, but it's a lot and it's a lot of their best players. The thing is, the 49ers come into this game off two dominant wins despite all those injuries. They crushed the Jets 31-13 on the road and then beat the Giants 36-9. I get those are some lopsided scores, but the Jets and the Giants are awful. I personally think they are in a class by their own at the bottom. Simply put, I don't think there's a team in the league that wouldn't be overvalued after playing those two teams in consecutive weeks. Add in the 49ers being a very public team off their Super Bowl run, I believe this has been inflated even more. It would not surprise me at all if the Eagles won this game. Give me Philadelphia +7.5! |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears +3 | 19-11 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/BEARS NFL STEAMROLLER (Bears +3) I'm honestly a bit shocked that the Bears are +3 at home. Chicago is 3-0 and off a big come from behind win over the Falcons. Colts are just 2-1 and have one of the worst losses on the season, falling to Jacksonville in Week 1. A lot of people see the Bears as a fluke and some of that 3-0 is definitely good fortune. The thing is that was a different team. One in which that was quarterback by Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles replaced Trubisky and led the comeback last week. An offense that has struggled to score all season went up and down the field. Trubisky is by far one of the least talented NFL quarterbacks to start as many games as he did. As for the Colts, I don't know that they are all they are made out to be. They rebounded from that loss to the Jags with convincing wins over the Vikings and Jets. Minnesota doesn't looking anything close to a contender and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. The offense has left a lot to be desired and they are down quite a few key guys on that side of the ball. Chicago's defense hasn't been dominant, but we know the talent is there for them. I really think Foles being the starter adds new life to this defense. They no longer have to play perfect for them to win. Give me the Bears +3! |
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10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans -3.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -107 | 141 h 36 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/TEXANS NFL SHARP STAKE (Texans -3.5) I locked in the Texans early in this week. I think this is the time to jump on Houston. The Texans really had no shot at being anything other than 0-3. They had to play at the Chiefs in Week 1, hosted the Ravens in Week 2 and played at Pittsburgh in Week 3. Without question they played the two best teams in the AFC, maybe the NFL and the Steelers aren't far behind. The Vikings are also 0-3, but it's been a much different 0-3 than the Texans. Minnesota has not played nearly as tough of schedule. They are also getting absolutely walked all over on the defensive side of the ball. They just lost too much. There's not really anything they can do to fix it short-term. I'm expecting a big game out of Deshaun Watson and I'll take my chances that the Texans defense can get enough stops to put this game away and cover the spread. Kirk Cousins has been really inconsistent early. I think he clearly misses Diggs and there's so much pressure on them to score with how bad their defense is playing. Give me the Texans -3.5! |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 48.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show | |
40* JAGUARS/BENGALS NFL NO-BRAINER (OVER 48.5) I’m expecting a lot of offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball, as we have two talented young signal callers facing off in Joe Burrow and Gardner Minshew. Let’s start off talking about Burrow and the Bengals offense. Cincinnati is not holding back with their rookie quarterback. Burrow’s 141 pass attempts are 2nd only to the Cowboys Dak Prescott. He’s the 12 ranked starting QB according to PFF (Pro Football Focus). What’s impressive with Burrow is he’s producing despite being under constant pressure. One thing to note on that is that the 3 teams he’s faced, Chargers, Browns and Eagles all have a ton of talent up front on the defensive line. The Jaguars got a decent defensive end in Josh Allen, but the rest of that unit up front is trash. Jacksonville as a team has just 2 sacks in their first 3 games. They only could manage 1 against a Dolphins offensive line that is every bit as bad as what Cincinnati has. Not only will this help Burrow and give him more time for big plays down the field, it will also give the Bengals a more balanced attack with the run game, which should help sustain drives. As for Minshew and the Jaguars offense, they put up 27 in Week 1 against a great Colts defense and then 30 on the road against the Titans. They did struggle in their last game, scoring just 13 points on Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins. Big thing to note with that game is that Minshew was without his top target in D.J. Chark. While he’s only practicing in a limited role, everything I’ve read is that he’s going to be good to go on Sunday. The Bengals rank 14th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg, but are way back at 24th in total defense, giving up 392.3 ypg. Thing is they held the Chargers to just 13 points, but that was when LA was still handicapping themselves with Tyrod Taylor at QB. They also just held the Eagles to 23, but Carson Wentz has been awful. Wentz is the 33rd ranked QB out of 35 in PFF. The only decent offense they faced was the Browns and Cleveland is far from an offensive juggernaut. Browns had 35 points and 434 yards against that defense. Even if the Bengals get back All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins, the rest of that Front 7 is garbage. I think these two will have no problem eclipsing the 50 point mark. Not only will I be betting the OVER 48.5, but I’ve also got action on the OVER 23.5 for the 1st half. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
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10-04-20 | Cardinals -3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -100 | 141 h 38 m | Show |
50* CARDINALS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -3.5) After last week's upset loss at home to the Lions, I feel like this is the perfect time to jump on the Cardinals as a slim road favorite against the Panthers. Arizona definitely did themselves no favors with 3 turnovers (-3 turnover margin). I think some of that was just a lack of focus from them being 2-0 and feeling like they were just going to walk all over an 0-2 Lions team. Arizona's offense still put up a solid 377 yards and had 28 first downs. Kyler Murray wasn't nearly as effective on the ground and all 3 turnovers were interceptions he threw. I really like this kid and I think he bounces back in a big way. It certainly helps matters that he's facing an awful Panthers defense. Carolina is bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. We have seen them give up 34 to the Raiders and 31 to the Bucs. They did hold the Chargers to just 16 last week, but that's very misleading. LA had 436 yards of total offense, with rookie Justin Herbert throwing for more than 300 yards. Add in the fact that the Panthers don't have McCaffrey and they are really left no choice but to pass. Less running means less time of possession and more possessions for the Arizona offense. I really don't think this will be close. Give me the Cardinals -3.5! |
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10-01-20 | Broncos -3 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 105 | 76 h 23 m | Show |
50* BRONCOS/JETS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Broncos -3) I spent a lot of time handicapping this game and as much as I wanted to take the Jets as a home dog, I just can't do it. New York is awful. I really think they are going to lose big again and there's a good chance they fire Gase after this game. With scoring way up this year, the Jets are as bad a offensive team as I can remember. They have scored 37 points in 3 games (12.3 ppg). Last week their offense scored 7 points and gave up 16 (two pick sixes and a safety). New York has not held a lead at any point this season. Darnold has not played well, but it's not all his fault. The talent that has been put around him is a joke. Thing could get worse. Jets stud rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton is likely not going to play with a shoulder injury. Note their swing tackle Chuma Edoga is already filling in at right tackle for the injure George Fant. I'm not going to sit here an endorse the Broncos, because there's a lot of problems with this team. More than anything injuries have ravaged this team. I know they weren't all that competitive last week against Tampa Bay, but they had a shot at winning Week 1 against the Titans (lost 14-16) and Week 2 at Pittsburgh (lost 21-26). I just think they are the better coached and more talented team. Give me the Broncos -3! *This line has moved quite a bit since Denver announced that Rypien is going to start. When I handicapped this game I assumed there was a chance he would play. I think we are seeing a big overreaction with the line move. It doesn't change how I feel about this play. |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -124 | 148 h 10 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/RAVENS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
50* PACKERS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Saints -3) This is a no-brainer if you ask me. All we are hearing right now is how washed up Drew Brees is (only time a guy throws for 300+ in a game and is getting dogged). I can't imagine how jacked up the Saints are to get on the field for this game. I got good feeling here that Brees is going to quiet some of those critics in this one. What people overlook with the Saints 24-34 loss to the Raiders is they beat themselves. New Orleans put up 424 yards and averaged a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play. It looked like it was JV vs varsity early on. Penalties killed a lot of Saints drives. Let's also not overlook the fact that New Orleans is just not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. With Payton as head coach, Saints are 28-13 ATS last 41 off a road loss. As for the Packers, people are firmly on the Green Bay bandwagon after they have opened up 2-0 with a 43-34 win over the Vikings and 42-21 victory against Detroit. I just don't think either of those teams are any good, especially on the defensive side. Big loss here for Rodgers and the Packers offense with wideout Davante Adams doubtful to play. Green Bay has also been running the ball with a ton of success (had 259 on the ground vs Lions). New Orleans is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry. I just think GB has trouble keeping pace with the Saints. Give me New Orleans -3! |
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09-27-20 | Panthers v. Chargers OVER 43.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 3 m | Show | |
40* PANTHERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 43.5) I see some decent value here with the low total set for this game. I think the assumption here is that the Panthers won't be able to move the ball without Christian McCaffrey. I don't think that's going to be the case. Despite only scoring 17 points in their WK 2 loss to the Bucs, they an impressive 427 total yards (outgained TB by almost 100 yards). McCaffrey only had 59 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards against the Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 367 yards. DJ Moore had 8 catches for 120, Robby Anderson had 9 for 109 and Mike Davis caught 8 for 74. As for the Chargers, I didn't make this a play until it was clear that rookie Justin Herbert was going to start over Tyrod Taylor. Herbert made big throw after big throw against the defending champs and did so not even knowing he was going to start until right before the game. Carolina's defense is one of the worst in the league. I think Herbert and the Chargers are going to score at will, which will keep Bridgewater and the Panthers in a pass-heavy attack. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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09-27-20 | Titans -2.5 v. Vikings | 31-30 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 13 m | Show | |
40* TITANS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Titans -2.5) Every year there’s a team the books just can’t price right early on. I believe Minnesota is that team in 2020. I’m certainly not going to stop fading the Vikings now. Especially when all we really need is for Tennessee to win the game. I had a 50* Top Play on Green Bay +2.5 in Week 1 at Minnesota and last week I gave out the Colts -3 at home against the Vikings. Neither game was close. That’s the key. It’s not shocking that Minnesota is 0-2 having started out against Aaron Rodgers and on the road against a good Colts team. It’s how they competed in those games. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in 2014, defense has been the foundation of this team and no surprise given Zimmer’s defensive background. Don’t get me wrong he’s a great defensive coach. He just doesn’t have the players on the roster for his coaching to matter. They were decimated on the defensive line and at corner. Now they are down one of their best linebackers in Anthony Barr. They just gave up 100-yard game to rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and now have to try to stop the beast that is Derek Henry. Everyone also just thinks Henry when they think of the Titans. Ryan Tannehill can sling it. He’s thrown 6 touchdowns without a pick in his first two starts and if you back to last season, he’s thrown 2 or more TDs in 13 of his last 15 starts and that includes his 3 playoff starts. As for the Vikings offense, Kirk Cousins was awful against the Colts. He completed just 11 of 26 for 113 yards and threw 3 interceptions. I think he really misses Stefon Diggs. I think some of these coaches/GMs are learning the hard way how much a negative impact losing a star WR like Diggs or DeAndre Hopkins can have, especially when you don’t replace him with an equal talent. I think it hurts even more for an average QB like Cousins. Lastly I think not having fans is a massive blow to the Vikings. Minnesota doesn’t always get mentioned as a tough place to play, but the advanced numbers suggest they had one of the biggest homefield advantages of any team. This year more than any that defense needs the energy of the crowd and it’s just not there. Give me the Titans -2.5. |
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09-27-20 | Texans v. Steelers -4 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 44 h 0 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -4) I'm going to roll the dice here with Pittsburgh laying just 4-points at home against the Texans. The Steelers let me down last week, as they won by just 5 at home over the Broncos (led by double-digits in the 4th). It was a real sloppy showing for Pittsburgh, who may have let their guard down after Broncos starting QB Drew Lock left the game early with an injury. I expect a much more focused and energized Steelers team off that poor showing against a top tier QB like Deshaun Watson. That's all we really need for Pittsburgh to win and cover here. As good as Watson is, he's really all the Texans got and some of his talent is negated by the poor coaching of Bill O'Brien. Watson also has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long and that's a recipe for disaster against this top tier Steelers pass rush. Look for the Texans to be playing behind the chains all day in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -4! |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 44 h 6 m | Show |
50* RAIDERS/PATRIOTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -5) I love the value here with New England at -5. I've been pretty spot on with the Patriots early on. I cashed on them -6.5 in Week 1 against the Dolphins then won easily on the the Pats/Seahawks O44.5 in Week 2. I really think this team is better than they are getting credit for. This is one of the best teams in the AFC. The Raiders are getting a ton of love for their 34-24 win over the Saints on MNF in Week 2 (I was on Oakland +6), but I just don't think they are as good as what people think. The defense gave up 7.4 yards/play against New Orleans. Penalties really killed the Saints (10 for 129). NE is a disciplined team under Belichick, so that edge won't be there in this one. This is also an awful spot for Oakland. Raiders are on short rest after playing on MNF. They also are having to travel across the country for an early game, which is never easy for the west coast teams. Give me the Patriots -5! |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 42 m | Show |
50* DOLPHINS/JAGUARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 47.5) I don't want anything to do with the side in this game. I know we didn't get the best number, but I still love the OVER 47.5. I'm a big OVER guy in these Thursday games on short rest, especially early in the season. Add in how much more scoring we are getting in 2020 because of the shorten offseason and no fans and these two should hit 50 with ease. Keep in mind everyone was calling for the UNDER last Thursday between the Browns and Bengals and that thing went flying past the total. As bad as these teams are, Fitzpatrick and Minshew are two guys that can sling it. They will both be up against an awful pass defense. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +6 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
40* SAINTS/RAIDERS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Raiders +6) I'm going to put my trust in Jon Gruden and the Raiders as a near touchdown dog at home on Monday Night Football. I just feel there's too much value with Las Vegas to pass up. I know the Saints pulled away from Tom Brady and the Bucs in their 34-23 Week 1 win and cover, but I wasn't all that impressed with New Orleans. At least not to the extent of others. Drew Brees was only 18 of 30 for 160 yards (5.3 per attempt). New Orleans as a team only had 271 total yards. They still don't have Mike Thomas and he's such a huge part of what they do offensively. Raiders snuck out a 34-30 on the road in Week 1 at Carolina. Plenty Las Vegas has to work on, but I thought they ran the ball really well with Jacobs and Booker. Derek Carr also played well. I think they can play ball control and keep the possessions down. If they do that, they might win this game outright. Give me the Raiders +6! |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5) I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He's going to get the most out of what he can. It's why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami. I'm not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something. The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson's hands more and that's huge. I don't think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2. On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he's willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago. Seattle's defense isn't what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5! |
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09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals -6.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 99 h 7 m | Show |
50* NFC *MAX BET* PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cardinals -6.5) I’m a huge Kyler Murray fan. He was the reason I was on Arizona over their win total last year. There’s been nothing but positive things said about this kid since he got into the league. He was absolutely sensational in last week’s win against the 49ers, completing 65% of his attempts for 230 yards and rushing for another 91 yards on 13 attempts. He’s going to have to run less as he gets older if he wants to do this for a long time, but for now it makes him and this Arizona offense extremely difficult to guard, especially now that he has one of the best receivers in the league to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins. I just see Murray and the Cardinals offense doing as they please in this one. I know Washington’s run defense held the Eagles in check, but Philly was without their top back in Miles Sanders. Eagles were also without top wideout Alshon Jeffery and two multiple pro bowl offensive linemen in right tackle Lane Johnson and right guard Brandon Brooks. I also think this Washington offense is going to end up being one of the worst in the league. I’m sorry but Dwayne Haskins is not an NFL quarterback. He went 17 of 31 for 178 yards in their win. They also don’t got anything that excites me at the skill positions. Arizona’s defense isn’t great, but this is a much easier task than what they just faced in the 49ers. Give me the 49ers -6.5 |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 52.5 | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 98 h 58 m | Show | |
40* FALCONS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (OVER 52.5) I'm a little bit surprised this number isn't higher. These are two explosive offenses that want to air it out to all their big playmakers at receiver. Dallas has a great back in Zeke, but Dak is not shy about letting it fly. I know the Cowboys/Rams game went way UNDER in Week 1. A lot of that was the Rams playing ball control offense. LA rushed it 40 times (Dallas only ran it 27). Atlanta isn't going to play ball control offense. Falcons put up over 500 yards in Week 1 and only 72 of those came on the ground. Should be enough possessions to push this game well past the mark. Give me the OVER 52.5! |