Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-18 | Ravens -2.5 v. Titans | Top | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg. They have little to no threat of a passing game after losing star tight end Delanie Walker and haven't been running the ball nearly as effective as they did a year ago. I just don't see the Titans being able to generate enough offense against this Ravens defense, which I think is one of the best in the league. Baltimore comes in ranked 5th against the run (88.4 ypg) and 4th against the pass (215.4 ypg). They also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 ppg.As for the Ravens' offense, I think they bounce back in a big way here after that ugly showing against the Browns. Even after scoring just 9-points against Cleveland, Baltimore is still 11th in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg. They also sit 11th in the league in total offense, averaging 399.4 ypg.Going back to the Titans defense and it eventually falling off, they could be without one of their best players, as linebacker Wesley Woodyard is questionable with a shoulder injury. Losing Woodyard would be a big blow, as he's tied for the team lead in tackles.Another thing to note about Tennessee's defense, is they have played a bunch of teams that have struggled offensively early, as their opponents for the season are only averaging 19.3 ppg, which makes the 17.2 ppg the Titans are allowing that much less impressive.Baltimore is also a solid 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Give me the Ravens -2.5! |
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10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals -119 | 28-21 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY LINE SLAUGHTER (Bengals -119) I'll take my chances here with the Bengals on the money line. I just feel there’s a ton of value with a home team. The reason we are getting such great value is the Steelers are a big time public play and the public will quick to back them off that 24-point win against the Falcons. Plus, the Bengals just aren’t a team that public is drawn to, no matter what their record is. I want to point out that I absolutely loved the Steelers at home last week against Atlanta (was my strongest play). I just loved the spot for Pittsburgh, playing at home off that ugly home loss to the Ravens. Not to mention they were catching an Atlanta team that has been decimated with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and were coming off that devastating loss at home to the Bengals. It’s also worth pointing out that while the final score was lopsided, the Steelers only had a 381 to 324 edge in total yards and both teams ended the game with 22 first downs. I just don’t trust this team on the road. It’s no secret that Big Ben isn’t the same quarterback on the road as he is at home. The Steelers are still without one of the best backs in the league in LeVeon Bell and there just seems to be a ton of drama both inside and outside the locke room. This week it’s Antonio Brown making headlines for two lawsuits filed against him. I know the numbers aren’t great for the Bengals defense, but I like the young talent they got on that side of the ball and let’s not overlook they played the first 4 without one of the top linebackers in the league in Vontaze Burfict. They also seem to keep making the big play when it matters the most. Not to mention the energy they will get in front of what should be an electric home crowd. This also isn’t just another game for these two teams. There’s quite the rivalry between the two and I have to think this is one contest the Bengals have been itching to play. Cincinnati has lost each of the last 6 meetings. They know that in order to win the AFC North, they have to take care of business against this team and I just think for the first time in a few years, they are the more talented team on the field. Give me the Bengals! |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* EAGLES/GIANTS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 43.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to recover with just 3 days between games. The OVER is 3-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39. Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye. Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one. As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way. I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER. Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total. Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball. With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh. Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine. As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5! |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -3 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -3) I'll take my chances here with KC as a slim 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville. All the talk this week is going to be around can Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense continue to put up big numbers against what everyone believes is the best defense in the league. I believe he can. After what we saw last week against the Broncos, who have a pretty good defense of their own and the game being played in Denver in front of an electric crowd, there’s no way I’m betting against this kid and this team right now. One of the things that can really frustrate a good defense is a mobile quarterback, who can make plays on the run. Time after time against the Broncos, Mahomes scrambled and made big plays on the run. He did so with a very poor game from his offensive line, though I think their struggles were in large part because of all the noise from an electric Denver home crowd. I also think watching this Jaguars defense that you can exploit them deep and Mahomes certainly has the ability to stretch a defense. I know the numbers for the Jaguars defense are off the charts and it’s clearly a talented bunch, but they have faced two immobile quarterbacks in Eli Manning and Tom Brady, a hobbled Marcus Mariota and a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Not to mention, none of those teams have the kind of playmakers that the Chiefs have at their disposal. Throw in the creativity that comes with a Andy Reid offense and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mahomes and the Chiefs just kept rolling. The biggest thing that is going to hinder people from taking Kansas City is their defense, which has not been very good to this point. However, I think the defense isn’t as atrocious as a lot of people think. They have played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. A Kyle Shanahan offense led by a really good quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and a greatly improved Broncos offense under Case Keenum. Not to mention, only one of those games came at home and the one game that was at home the defense played great early and the Chiefs had a 35-10 lead at the half. It’s no secret that Arrowhead is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play and that noise can really help the defense out. Let’s also not overlook the fact that the Jaguars have played 3 of their first 4 games on the road. The only game away from home was in Week 1 at New York and the offense for Jacksonville wasn’t all that great, scoring just 13 points (defense had a pick six) and managed 305 yards. Adding to this, the Jaguars are a mere 13-33 on the road with Blake Bortles as their starting quarterback and just 5-22 as a road dog. With a spread of just 3-points, we are basically picking the winner here. Give me the Chiefs -3! |
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10-07-18 | Packers +106 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Packers +106) I'll gladly take my chances here with Green Bay winning this game outright. It’s not been an ideal start to the season for Green Bay, but they are coming off their best showing of the season in their win over Buffalo at home last week. Even though the public is going to be all over the Packers, I just get the feeling this team is a bit undervalued right now. The biggest thing that people will focus on that like Detroit in this spot, is the fact that the Packers lost 31-17 in their only road game of the season at Washington and last time we saw the Lions play at home they laid it on Brady and the Patriots. The one thing you have to keep in mind with Green Bay’s poor showing against the Redskins, is they were coming off that crazy tie against the Vikings at home, where they felt cheated after an interception that would have sealed the win was negated because of a questionable roughing the passer penalty. I feel they simply came out flat against Washington and let’s not forget that tie had a similar effect on the Vikings, who got routed at home by the Bills in their next game. As for the Lions win over New England. That was an ideal situation for Detroit to pull off the upset. The players played their hearts out for their new head coach against his former team and the home crowd was electric with the game being played on Sunday Night Football. Matt Patricia, who spent all those years going up against Brady and that New England offense put together a masterful gameplan in that win. That’s their only win on the season. While they lost by just 3-points at San Francisco, they trailed by 17 in the 4th quarter. Sure they could have won at Dallas, but there’s nothing to be excited about playing the Cowboys tough with how they have looked early. Plus, they gave up 414 yards to a Cowboys team that hadn’t gained more than 303 yards in any of their first 3 games. Not to mention that loss to the Jets gets uglier with each passing week, as New York is now 1-3 and have scored 41 points in their 3 losses and had 48 against the Lions. I just don’t think the Detroit defense is going to be able to do enough here to stop Rodgers and that Packers offense. The Lions are giving up almost a touchdown more to their opponent than what they average and are allowing a staggering 6 yards/play. It’s also worth noting that Detroit is just 5-10 SU against the Packers with Matthew Stafford at quarterback and two of those were last year without Rodgers playing on the other side. Green Bay on the other hand has won 13 of 16 meetings with Detroit with Rodgers under center. Give me the Packers! |
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10-07-18 | Falcons v. Steelers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
50* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against Atlanta. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers, who I feel should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Falcons. Every year there’s a team that just gets unlucky with the injury bug and Atlanta is definitely that team to start out 2018. The Falcons lost two of their best defensive players to season-ending injuries in the same game with free safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones both going down in Week 1. They have since lost starting strong safety Ricardo Allen and left guard Andy Levitre to IR. If that wasn’t bad enough, defensive end Derrick Shelby, defensive end Vic Beasley, corner Justin Bethel and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all listed as questionable to play against Pittsburgh. I know the Steelers defense has struggled, but they don’t have to play great here for Pittsburgh to win this game. Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense should have a field day against this Falcons defense, which has given up 70 points in their last two games. On top of that, Atlanta is just 8-20 ATS under head coach Dan Quinn vs teams with a quarterback that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts. You also have to keep in mind that Atlanta’s offense is built to play inside a dome. So while they have scored 30+ in each of their last 3 games, all 3 have come at home. Their only road game was a Week 1 matchup at Philadelphia and the offense managed just 12 points and 299 total yards. I’m not saying Pittsburgh’s defense will hold them under 20 points, but I think they make enough stops here to let their offense create some separation. Let’s also not overlook just how difficult a spot this is for the Falcons emotionally off those two losses to the Saints and Bengals. Those are the toughest kind of defeats to bounce back from, especially on the road against a talented team like Pittsburgh. As for the Steelers coming off that loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin after an upset loss as a home favorite and going back even further are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent. Give me the Steelers -3! |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Patriots -10) I was originally leaning towards taking the Colts here as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this one the more I like New England to win this thing going away. There's no question the Colts are better than their 1-3 record, but this team is dealing with a massive amount of injuries and that's the absolute last thing you want to be dealing with when facing Brady and Belichick on the road in a short week of preparation. We know for sure the Colts offense won't have Luck's favorite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight end Jack Doyle. Starting running back Marlon Mack is also out. Starting right tackle Joe Haeg is on IR and backup right tackle Denzelle Good is out. Starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and starting center Ryan Kelly are both questionable. They may also be without Mr. automatic in kickr Adam Vinatieri. Defensively they have lost two of their top defensive lineman in Hassan Ridgeway and Tyquan Lewis, as well as two of their top corners in Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore. Starting safeties Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers are both questionable, as is star rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and backup corner Nate Hairston. New England will have Gronkowski after he was originally listed as questionable and also get back one of Brady's favorite targets in Julian Edelman from a 4-game suspension. I know they kind of righted the ship with last week's win over Miami, but I still feel this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder after the slow start. Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a win by 14 or more points, 35-14-2 in their last 51 in October and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me New England -10! |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3.5) I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas City as a small road favorite in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close. The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid. Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs. It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series. The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter. They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -3.5! |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants +3.5 | 33-18 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Giants +3.5) I'll take my chances here with the Giants getting more than a field goal at home. I just feel the Saints are way overvalued here. New Orleans is lucky to not be 0-3 right now. They lost as a double-digit home favorite in Week 1 to the Bucs, were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home in Week 2 and had to score in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime at Atlanta. The thing is, New Orleans was super-hyped coming into the season and while they are lucky to be sitting at 2-1, the public won’t be able to help themselves with the Saints laying such a short number against a Giants team that hasn’t looked great. I just don’t know how you trust this Saints team on the road in this spot. This feels like a must-win game for the Giants and the fact that they are a home dog will only add more fuel to the fire. As for New Orleans, I think that game against the Falcons took a lot out of this team. We just saw Minnesota and Green Bay struggle to play well after their overtime affair and I think it will be a similar struggle for the Saints. A lackluster offensive showing in Weeks 1-2 really hurt the Giants, but they got on track this past Sunday against the Texans. Eli Manning played his best game of the year, completing 25 of 29 for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie running back Saquan Barkley also had a big impact, rushing for 82 yards and a score, plus had 5 catches for 35 yards. I think they build on that performance against a struggling Saints defense. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 336.7 ypg. The only reason they aren’t last, is because they got to play the Browns while Tyrod Taylor was still their quarterback. Taylor couldn’t complete a 5-yard pass agains the Jets, yet he went 22 of 30 for 246 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. The Giants defense is unlikely to keep Brees and the Saints offense from scoring, but New Orleans typically isn’t as efficient offensively on the road, especially when the game is played outdoors. I think the Giants will be able to get off the field enough to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but to win it outright. Take New York +3.5! |
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09-30-18 | Browns v. Raiders -2.5 | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Raiders -2.5) I'll take my chances laying less than a field goal with the Raiders at home. I just think this is too good a price to pass up on Oakland in this spot. The Raiders have no one but themselves to blame for their 0-3 start, but they certainly aren’t as bad as their 0-3 record. This team could easily be 2-1 and I think there’s no way they aren’t more than a field goal favorite in that scenario. Either way, Oakland has to feel like this is a must-win game to keep their season alive. I also think the hype around the Browns, especially with how good Mayfield looked in his debut, has Cleveland overvalued right now. Yes, the Browns have a good defense and there’s no denying that Mayfield looked like a massive upgrade of Taylor, but that win was against the Jets. I like the direction Cleveland is going, but they are at least a year away from being a team you can count on to deliver away from home. That’s the biggest thing here for me. As good as Mayfield looked, he was fortunate to not have a couple passes intercepted. Unlike Taylor, who really values the football (arguably too much), Mayfield is going to take chances. I think it’s going to lead to a lot of turnovers and it’s really hard to win in this league when you lose the turnover battle, especially on the road. Let’s also not forget the Jets went into that game with a game-plan for Taylor at quarterback not Mayfield. The biggest concern here is without a doubt the Raiders offense up against the Browns defense. Cleveland’s stop unit is greatly improved, but they could be down potentially 3 starters in Emmanuel Ogbah (DE), Christian Kirksey (LB) and Damarious Randall (FS). All of which are listed as questionable on the injury report. I also think this Raiders offense is poised for a breakout performance. Oakland comes in 28th in the NFL in scoring at 17.3 ppg, but are 6th in the NFL at 400.7 ypg. Derek Carr has Oakland 6th in the league in passing at 302 ypg and they are right in the middle of the pack on the ground (98.7 ypg). Look for this unit to get on track Sunday and don’t be surprised if they aren’t aided by some short fields, which should lead to quick scores and ultimately them covering the spread. Give me the Raiders -2.5! |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5) I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home. I think there’s a ton of value here with the Bears. While both of these teams have gotten off to impressive starts, I believe the Bears have the better shot of sustaining their early season success the rest of the way. The addition of Khalil Mack has turned a really good Bears defense into of the elite units in the league. Chicago comes into this game ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (65.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.7 ypg). They also lead the league in sacks (14) and are tied for 2nd in takeaways (8). As good as Tampa Bay’s offense has looked in their first 3 games, their numbers have been greatly aided by going up against a couple of sub-par defenses in the Saints and Steelers. The one good defense they played was the Eagles and they only managed 21 points. I think it’s going to be a long day for whoever ends up starting for Tampa Bay, whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston. The even bigger key for me is the Bucs defense and how poorly it has played thru the first 3 games of 2018. Tampa Bay is 31st in the NFL, allowing 432.7 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 362.7 yards/game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 102 of the 131 pass attempts agains this defense and are averaging an outstanding 8.3 yards/attempt. I know it’s been a tough go of things for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, but this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Chicago to easily have it’s best offensive output of the season and it’s not like we need the Bears to put up a huge number to get the win and cover. Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 at home versus a team with a winning road record. Give me the Bears -2.5! |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49) I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest. It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15. The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense. As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards. The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense. OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49! |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 60 m | Show | |
40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores. Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense. Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks. What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one. Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5! |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers -3 | 21-31 | Win | 102 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-23-18 | 49ers v. Chiefs -6 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51. While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition. The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins. You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game. We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5! |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -4 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -4) I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago at home on Monday Night Football. For me it’s all about the Bears defense. I believe the addition of Mack has taken Chicago from being a good defensive team to a great one. Keep in mind this team quietly finished last year ranked 10th in total defense and 9th in points allowed. I look for Mack and that dominant front 7 of the Bears to have their way with Seattle’s offensive line, which is once again one of the worst units in the league. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball against the Broncos (64 yards) and Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times and threw two interceptions. Add in the home field edge with Chicago and this being a prime time game and I look for that defense to feast in this one. Note that Seattle is still without their top wide out in Doug Baldwin. The other big key here is I don’t think this Seattle defense is very good. They were very fortunate to only give up 27 points to the Broncos. Case Keenum torched the secondary for 329 yards and 3 scores and Denver piled on 470 total yards. Keenum was just 19 of 35 yesterday against the Raiders and Denver was extremely fortunate to win at home 20-19. You also have to factor in that Seattle will be without both their star linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, as well as several other players to injury. The Seahawks are are also historically a slow-starting team under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the first two weeks of the season. Chicago is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Give me the Bears -4. |
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09-16-18 | Raiders +7 v. Broncos | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7) I think the Broncos are getting a little too much respect for a win over what I believe is a Seahawks team that isn’t all that great outside of Russell Wilson. I would be shocked if Seattle ended up in the playoffs this year. On the flip side of this, I think people are writing off Oakland after a 20-point home loss to the Rams. I actually thought the Raiders played well in that game. The Rams are just loaded with talent and are going to do that to a lot of teams this year. I was impressed with the 395 total yards that Oakland racked up against LA, as they actually outgained the Rams by 30 yards on the game. I know the Broncos defense looked great, but they had such a big advantage in the trenches with all the talent they have up front and Seattle having one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Derek Carr was only sacked once by a Rams front that features arguably the two best defensive tackles in the game. They are going to be primed for Von Miller and the Broncos pass rush. Another factor here that has me thinking the spread is a little high here, is the fact that only once in the last 3 seasons (6 meetings) have the Broncos beat Oakland by more than 6-points. That one doesn’t really count in my book, as that was back in Week 17 of the 2016 season where the Raiders were without Carr after he broke his leg the previous week. I know it’s a new team with Gruden, but it’s worth noting that the Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a double-digit loss at home (I think a lot of teams perform well in this spot, as they are highly motivated and a little undervalued on the line). A lot of people think Denver has a big home field edge, but they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. I’ll gladly take my chances with the Raiders, who I believe are a live dog in this one. Give me Oakland +7. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -6 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Falcons -6) I think Atlanta is flying under the radar going into Week 2, while I think people are overreacting to the Panthers Week 1 win. Even after scoring just 12 points against the Eagles, I have high expectations for this Falcons’ offense going forward. That Eagles defense is one of the best in the league and while the Panthers are typically strong defensively, they don’t pose the same caliber a pass rush or talent in the secondary. It’s also worth noting that Carolina is still without one of their top linebackers in Thomas Davis, who was suspended for the first 4 games and star middle linebacker Luke Keuchly figures to be playing this at less than 100% after hyper-extending his knee late in the win over Dallas. I’m also not buying the great defensive showing by Carolina in Week 1. The Cowboys offense was a complete mess. For whatever reason Dallas wanted to drop Prescott back and throw to that lackluster receiving corps instead of feeding their best player in Ezekiel Elliott, who had just 15 carries. It’s going to be night and day for the Panthers defense when they line up against the Falcons and all the weapons they have on the field. Not to mention Atlanta’s offense is built for playing inside a dome, where the Panthers defense is best suited on a grass or turf playing surface. Not only has the home team covered 5 of the last 6 meetings, but Matt Ryan is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts against the Panthers and has averaged 333 passing yards in those games. As for Cam Newton, he’s posted some of his worst numbers in Atlanta. He’s completed just 53% of his attempts and averaged a mere 150 passing ypg in his last 5 on the road vs the Falcons. I am aware of the Falcons losing two of their best defensive players in Deion Jones and Keenu Neal, but I still like Dan Quinn’s defense in this one. Carolina has been hit hard with injuries on the offensive side of the ball, most notably the offensive line. Left tackle Matt Kalil is on IR, right tackle Daryl Williams is doubtful and guard Trea Turner is in the concussion protocol. Keep in mind they let All-Pro Andrew Norwell leave in free agency and did little to replace him. They also lost Newton’s favorite target in Greg Olson to a serious foot injury. Add in the fact that the Falcons are going to be the more hungry team, as they are the ones trying to avoid the 0-2 start, and that Atlanta has had 3 more days to prepare and I think this one could get ugly in favor of the home. Give me the Falcons -6. |
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09-16-18 | Texans -3 v. Titans | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
50* NFL 'AFC SOUTH' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texans -3) I played against the Titans in their Week 1 loss at Miami and I believe that is just the start of what's going to be a really tough year for Tennessee. The Titans were by far the worst team to make the playoffs last year and it simply has them getting way too much respect coming into 2018 and the books are slow to adjust on teams the first couple weeks of the season. Houston lost their opener at New England, but that's a loss you can live with, as it's never easy going up against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady when they have had weeks to prepare for you. I look for Deshaun Watson and that Houston offense to bounce back in a big way in this one. Miami's Ryan Tannehill picked apart the Titans secondary, going 20 of 28 for 230 yards and 2 scores. The Dolphins don't have near the weapons that Houston does. The Titans offense wasn't very good and it doesn't figure to be any better against what I think is an elite Texans defense. Marcus Mariota is banged up (expected to split reps with Blaine Gabbert), their best weapon on the outside, Delanie Walker is now on IR and both starting tackles, Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan aren't expected to play. I think this one could get ugly. Give me the Texans -3! |
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09-16-18 | Chargers -7 v. Bills | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -7) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chargers laying just a touchdown against the Bills. I know you can't overreact to much to Week 1, but I'm pretty confident that Buffalo is the worst team in the league. While I would have loved for the Bills to keep trotting out the horrible Nathan Peterman, rookie Josh Allen isn't that big of an upgrade. He's got some raw talent, but is not ready for the NFL game. I think we got an even better idea of just how bad this Bills team is after watching the Ravens lose to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore's defense gave up 21 points in the first 17 minutes of the game after only allowing 3 points and 153 total yards in their 47-3 blowout win over the Bills in Week 1. The Chargers lost in a shootout to KC at home in Week 1, but they outgained the Chiefs 541 to 362. Philip Rivers threw for 424 yards and 3 scores and would have topped 500 yards if it wasn't for his receives dropping a couple of easy catches downfield. This team is tired of starting slow and will be out to lay it on the Bills and I just don't see Buffalo being able to keep this close with how limited they are offensively. Give me Los Angeles -7! |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers OVER 53 | 42-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 53) My strongest play in Week 1 was the Chiefs/Chargers OVER 48. I had a really good feeling this Kansas City offense was going to put up points and at the same time would allow their fair share on the defensive side of the ball. That’s exactly what happened, as the two teams combined for 66 points and more than 900 yards of offense. I know this is a massive total, especially compared to most of the other games on the board for Week 2, but I think these two will easily eclipse this mark. The Chiefs put up 38 points in Week 1 and did so without much help from two of their top targets in Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. That just tells you the talent this team has at the skill positions and I love that Mahomes isn’t just forcing it to his star players. The Steelers defense held the Browns to just 21 points, but that was in less than ideal conditions (heavy wind and rain). This was not the same caliber a defense last year after they lost Ryan Shazier and one I think will struggle in 2018. The big thing that stands out to me is they allowed 177 rushing yards to the Browns. Look for KC to have a balanced attack in this one. As for the Pittsburgh offense going up against the Chiefs defense. I look for Big Ben and company to feast on this KC defense. The Chiefs allowed 541 yards to the Chargers in Week 1 and were very fortunate LA only ended up with 28 points. With Eric Berry out again and all those new faces in the secondary, this unit is going to struggle early. Not to mention Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is a whole different beats at home compared to on the road. OVER is also 9-3 in the Chiefs last 12 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games played early on in the month of September. Give me the OVER 53. |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
40* RAVENS/BENGALS TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bengals +1.5) As good as Baltimore looked against the Bills, a lot of that had to do with just how bad Buffalo is, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Nathan Peterman is not an NFL quarterback and it’s crazy the Bills went into a season with him as their starter. He was 5 of 18 for 24 yards and threw two interceptions before getting pulled in favor of rookie Josh Allen. I look for the Ravens defense to have a much tougher time against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Dalton was sharp against the Colts, completing 21 of 28 for 243 yards and we got a taste of just how dynamic running back Joe Mixon could be this year. Mixon had 95 rushing yards on just 17 attempts and caught 5 passes for 54 yards. Cincinnati also had to be happy with the pay of tight end Tyler Effect, who had 3 catches for 44 yards. It’s not just all about stopping A.J. Green. The offensive numbers for Baltimore were solid, but a lot of that had to do with the Bills’ offense not being able to sustain a drive. Buffalo didn’t get a first down until the 3rd quarter. While Joe Flacco threw for 236 yards and 3 scores, the Ravens running game struggled to get going. Baltimore had just 117 yards on 34 attempts for just 3.4 yards/carry and that was with Lamar Jackson accounting for 39 yards on 7 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). Cincinnati’s defense struggled to contain Luck on the road, but I think that will be the case for most defenses when they travel to Indy. They were much better against the run, allowing just 75 yards on 22 attempts. I think if they can slow down Baltimore’s ground game, they can get after Flacco and make things difficult on the Ravens offense. Say what you want about Dalton, but he’s 24-13 ATS as a starter at home, including an impressive 7-1 ATS mark when his team is listed as a home dog. As for Flacco, he’s just 5-7 ATS as a road favorite and 3-6 ATS in 9 meetings against the Bengals with Marvin Lewis as the head coach. Give me Cincinnati +1.5! |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -7 | 48-17 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -7) There's a lot of people who are excited about the Jets with rookie Sam Darnold at quarterback, but I just have to go with Detroit at home in this one. Darnold is talented, but has a long way to go. I just don't trust his decision making and think he's going to have a difficult time playing well on the road in what's going to be a very hostile environment. My biggest concern here is the Jets not being able to run the ball effectively, which is really going to put the pressure on Darnold. I also think New York's defense is going to have a really tough time slowing down Stafford and that Lions offense. Stafford has a ton of weapons at his disposal and I love the addition of LeGarrette Blount to help in short-yardage situations, an area they really struggled with in past years. I also think rookie Kerryon Johnson could be a difference-maker. The Jets will be without starting safety Marcus Made, as well as starting linebacker Josh Martin. Two big losses. I also don't think NY did much to improve a dreadful pass rush that finished 28th in the league last year in sacks. Give me the Lions -7! |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Cowboys +3) With all the hype around the Eagles off their Super Bowl and the Giants getting Saquon Barkley, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Dallas in the NFC East. The Cowboys won 9 games last year despite Zeke missing almost half the season and he just wasn't the same guy with all the off the field shit he had to deal with. People are going to say Prescott has no one to throw to after the loss of Dez Byrant and Jason Witten. While Witten's departure is a big one, Bryant was a cancer in that locker room. I think Prescott will be much better taking what the defense gives him and he's going to have his chances with how much teams will have to load the box to stop the run. Carolina's got some big injuries up front on the offensive line and this Dallas defense is young and talented. I think the Cowboys go into Carolina and get the win. Give me Dallas +3! |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals -1) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals at basically a pick'em at home against the Redskins. Arizona has an underrated homefield edge and I think this team is going into the 2018 season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving them any respect, despite the fact that they managed to win 8 games with their best offensive player, David Johnson, playing in just one game and starting QB, Carson Palmer, missing half the season. Johnson is back healthy and is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and Arizona did a more than adequate job of replacing Palmer with veteran Sam Bradford. As for the Redskins, I think this team is going to be in trouble. Alex Smith isn't going to be the same quarterback under Jay Gruden as he was under Andy Reid and he doesn't have near the weapons at his disposal. Give me the Cardinals -1! |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 48 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48) I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48! |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Vikings -6.5) I'm not buying all the hype around Jimmy G and the 49ers going into 2018. I'm not saying he isn't going to be a great quarterback, but let's not get carried away with how a bad team finished strong. I think 49ers still have a long way to go in terms of talent to compete with the top teams in this league and Minnesota might just be the most talented team in the NFC. One thing is for sure, the Vikings have an elite defense and I expect them to show out at home against SF. I also think people are underestimating the addition of Kirk Cousins. The guy is a legit quarterback and is finally going to play on a team that can run the football and get stops on the defensive side of the ball. I don't think it's asking a lot for Minnesota to win by a touchdown. Note they won by an average of double-digits at home last year. Give me the Vikings -6.5! |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Dolphins +2) No way should the Titans be favored on the road here. Tennessee is getting way too much after making the playoffs last year. The Titans were no where near as good as their record would indicate and might be the worst team in their own division with Andrew Luck back in Indy. It's going to be hot and humid in Miami on Sunday and that's a big edge for the Dolphins, who I think are flying under the radar. Last year was a lost cause for Miami when starting QB Ryan Tannehill was lost before the season ever started. Tannehill has looked sharp in the preseason and this is a team that won 10-games in 2016 with him as the starter. Give me the Dolphins +2! |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +1.5 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
50* FALCONS/EAGLES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Falcons +1.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta on the road against the defending champs. No team had to be more sick about the Eagles going on to win the Super Bowl than the Falcons. That’s because Atlanta had to feel like they should have won that game against Philadelphia in the playoffs. The Falcons had to be ecstatic when the schedule was released. Not only do they get a chance at revenge, but they have a shot at ruining what will be special night for Eagles’ fans. Not to mention it’s a prime time game, where everyone will be glued to the TV for the first game of a new season. I’m not just taking the Falcons because of the huge motivation angle, but I think they are the better team in this matchup. The Eagles may have won the Super Bowl without Wentz, but it’s absurd to think they are just as good with Foles. Wentz being out for this game is massive, as I think Foles will struggle to come close to how he played in the Super Bowl. Especially given the Eagles top wide out, Alshon Jeffrey, is doubtful to play. Not to mention the offense was atrocious with Foles in the preseason. I just don’t see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A lot of people criticized Atlanta’s offense last year because it wasn’t as good as the 2016 version under Kyle Shanahan. The Falcons still managed to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. They should be even better in year-two under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I love the addition of rookie wideout Calvin Ridley, who they took in the 1st round. I also don’t think Atlanta’s defense gets near the respect they deserve. Dan Quinn has done a masterful job of turning the Falcons into one of the top defensive teams in the league. Atlanta was 9th in total defense (318.4 ypg) and 8th in scoring defense (19.7 ppg) last year. Given how young they were on that side of the ball and how much talent they have coming back, there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to get better. Give me the Falcons +1.5! |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
50* PATS/EAGLES SUPER BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Pats -4) As much respect as I have for the Eagles, I don’t know how you go against the Patriots in this scenario. On one side you have arguably both the greatest head coach (Bill Belichick) and quarterback (Tom Brady) to ever play the game. On the other side you have a head coach (Doug Pederson) that is in just his second year as a head coach with a backup quarterback (Foles) filling in for a MVP candidate (Wentz). I know the Patriots historically haven’t blown teams out in the Super Bowl, but it’s not asking a lot for New England to win here by 6 or more. I think the experience factor for New England and having been here and handled all that comes with playing in a Super Bowl is a huge edge. I also think it’s a massive advantage any time you give Belichick two weeks to prepare for opponent. The public is on the Eagles and the points here, especially having just watched the Patriots struggle against the Jags and Philadelphia completely dominating the Vikings. More times than not the public loses in these high-profile games. Couple things that you can’t overlook from those outcomes. The Patriots went up against the best defense in the NFL and Brady wasn’t 100%. Not to mention he played the majority of the game without his top weapon in Gronkowski. As for the Eagles, I think they benefitted not only from playing at home in the underdog role, but I also think the Vikings suffered a major letdown after their miracle win over the Saints the week before. Give Foles credit. He played a great game against the Vikings, but let’s not forget how much this offense struggled to move the ball in the Division Round against the Falcons, where they only managed 15 points. I’m not saying he won’t play well in the Super Bowl, I just wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick devised a game-plan that made life miserable for Foles and the Eagles. Give me the Patriots -4 |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars +9 v. Patriots | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 7 m | Show |
50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR (Jags +9) I think the Jaguars not only have an excellent shot at keeping this game within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went into New England and won the game outright. I just think that Jacksonville is the ideal opponent to take down the Pats. The teams that Brady and the Patriots have struggled against during their ridiculous run over the last decade are teams that can put pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz. In fact, in the postseason, New England is just 4-4 when facing top tier pressure teams, compared to 6-2 against teams that don't put pressure on the quarterback. Pats average almost 11 ppg less and Brady's TD-INT ration is just 15-12 compared to 20-5. Not only do the Jags have the talent on the defensive line to put pressure on Brady without blitzing, they have the talent and speed at linebacker to cover the running backs out of the backfield and playmakers in the secondary who can at least give some resistance to Gronk. I know there's some concerns with Jacksonville's offense and how they will score, but I think they can do enough here to keep it close in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. Give me the Jaguars +9! |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 68 h 36 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jags +7.5) I'll gladly take my chances with Jacksonville and the points on Sunday. I think this Jaguars defense is not only good enough to keep this game close, but good enough to propel Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game. It’s not very often you see a team catching more than a touchdown against an opponent they beat by 21-points early on in the season. That’s just shows you how much the public loves this Steelers team and how little respect and trust the public has for these Jaguars. Most are just going to chalk up that win in the regular season as a fluke and say they got lucky with the turnovers. I’m not saying I expect Jacksonville to intercept Roethlisberger 5 times on Sunday, but I see no reason not to think that the Steelers offense will struggle to move the ball against this defense. Sure Brown is going to play, but just how effective will he be? If he’s not 100% that’s a big deal. Keep in mind he caught 10 passes for 157 yards in the first meeting and Pittsburgh only managed 3 field goals. I know the run defense for the Jaguars isn’t as good as the secondary and their ability to stop the pass, but they did a pretty good job of limiting Le’Veon Bell in that first meeting. Bell had just 47 yards on 15 attempts. He did catch 10 passes, but for just 46 yards. If they can bottle him up like they did the first time, it’s going to force Roethlisberger to have to throw and chances are he makes another mistake or two. Another big key here that I think is getting overlooked is the Steelers defense wasn’t the same once they lost Ryan Shazier in that Week 13 game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. They just didn’t have the same look, as they no longer had that elite guy in the middle who could use his speed to limit big plays both on the ground and through the air. In the final 5 games the Steelers allowed 127.4 rushing yards/game. In the 11 games prior to that they had allowed 91 yards/game. Jacksonville rushed for 231 yards on 37 attempts (6.2 yards/carry) against the Steeles with Shazier on the field. I just think the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball here and put up points. With the way the play defense, I think it’s going to be really hard for Pittsburgh to win here in blowout fashion. Give me the Jags +7.5! |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
40* TITANS/PATS DIV ROUND ATS KNOCKOUT (Pats -13) Tennessee was gifted a win in KC this past weekend, as the Chiefs took a 21-3 lead into the half and didn't score again. I believe the only reason the Titans were able to get back in that game was the injury (concussion) suffered by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. He's such a big part of their offense and clearly was a problem for Tennessee, as he had 4 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets midway through the 2nd quarter. New England has arguably a better version of Kelce in Gronk, not to mention the best quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady. I think the Patriots are going to carve up this Titans defense and put close to 40 on the board. I also think the New England defense is going to do a much better job of shutting down Henry and not letting Mariota get out in space. Two things the Chiefs struggled with. I just don't see the Tennessee being able to keep pace offensively in this one and won't be able to keep this within 3 scores. Give me the Patriots -13! |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NFL AFC WILD CARD ATS KNOCKOUT (Bills +9) I'm just not a believer in the Jaguars and simply don't think they should be laying almost double-digits against the Bills. It's rare that a team struggles the way Jacksonville did in their finale two games and they just turn it on in the playoffs. The Jags are also not a team that's built to win via a blowout. They want to run the football and rely on their defense. I just don't trust Bortles in the postseason and think the Bills can get some offense going with their ability to run the football. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Buffalo won this game outright. Give me the Bills +9! |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Chiefs -8) I think we are getting a great price here on the Chiefs laying single digits at home against the Titans. I think the public is still a bit cautious with laying this big a number on Kansas City given their midseason struggles. Not me. This team returned to that elite form that had them start out 5-0 and more than anything they are the far superior team in this game. Tennessee is only in the postseason because of how poor the AFC was as a whole and are a team that has really struggled to play well on the road. The last time they faced a legit team on the road was the Steelers back in November and they got annihilated 40-17. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and it goes to a whole different level when it's a big game like this. The atmosphere in KC is going to be electric and outside of the Steelers the Chiefs have owned teams in this spot. Give me the Chiefs -8! |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals +9 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +9) I just think we are seeing the Seahawks overvalued in this spot, as they are the only team with something to play for. This line basically suggest that Arizona has no business being on the same field with Seattle and I’m just not buying it. The Cardinals would love nothing more than to go into CenturyLink Field and eliminate the Seahawks from postseason play with a win. I expect an all-out effort here from Arizona and they have proven over recent years that they can overcome the big home field edge Seattle has. The Cardinals have won each of the last two times they visited the Seahawks and three of the last four overall at CenturyLInk Field. It’s also worth pointing out that the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. If you watched Seattle’s game last week against the Cowboys, you know that final score doesn’t do justice to how the Seahawks played in that game. Not only did they manage just 136 total yards, but they were outgained by 146 yards. That’s now two straight weeks where Seattle’s offense has been atrocious. In their 42-7 loss to the Rams in Week 15, they only managed 149 yards and were outgained by over 200 yards. Now they go up against an Arizona defense that has quietly been playing very well down the stretch. The Cardinals are allowing under 250 total yards in their last 5 games and a big reason for that has been their ability to shutout the opposing team’s running game. Arizona has allowed just 139 yards on the ground in their last 3 games combined and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards. Seattle has thrown for just 131 yards in their last two games combined and are going to have a hard time moving the ball here. Arizona’s offense is nothing to write home about, but I think they can have some success here against a banged up Seahawks defense that is missing several key starters and has a number of other guys who are either questionable or playing through injuries. Another factor here that I think favors the Cardinals is they know there’s a good chance that head coach Bruce Arians will be coaching his final game with the team. Whether or not he actually does, these players are going to play their hearts out in the chance that it could be his final game. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Arizona win this game outright, but no way I’m passing up on getting over a touchdown. Give me the Cardinals +9! |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks +5) I think we are seeing a big overreaction here from the Seahawks ugly loss to the Rams and the fact that Dallas is getting back Elliott from suspension. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Seattle did, they almost always come back with one of their best performances in their next game, especially when it’s a quality team like the Seahawks. The thing you have to keep in mind with the blowout loss to the Rams is that was an absolutely horrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and were up against one of the best defensive lines in the league in Aaron Donald. At the same time, they were without one of their best linebackers in K.J. Wright and star linebacker Bobby Wagner basically played on one healthy leg as he took the field with a hamstring injury. Without those two at 100%, they had no chance of slowing down LA’s high-powered offensive attack, which in turn put the offense in horrible spot having to play catchup, which allowed the Rams to come after Wilson. While Wagner wasn’t a factor in the game, he did avoid further injuring his hamstring and should have a much bigger impact this week. As for Wright, there’s a really good chance he returns after failing to pass the concussion protocol last week. With these two healthy this team was really good against the run. Note that both were injured in the game against Jacksonville in Week 14. Prior to that, from Week 9 to Week 13, Seattle held all 5 of their opponents under 100 yards rushing. Holding Dallas under that mark won’t be easy with Elliott back, but I think they can slow him down enough to keep this close and potentially win outright. This is also a much better matchup for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, as Dallas doesn’t have the talent like LA to manhandle Seattle’s offensive line. In fact, I think Wilson could torment this Cowboys defense with his ability to extend plays. The Seahawks should also be able to have some success on the ground, which will open up things even more for Wilson. Seattle is 9-2 ATS under Pete Carroll when coming off 2 straight losses. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 7 or less points at the half. As for Dallas, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Give me the Seahawks +5! |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +4.5) Even though the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, this is still far from a public team and they certainly aren’t going to be the popular side in this one. That’s because the Jaguars have twice as many wins as San Francisco and are rolling right now. Jacksonville has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall with the most recent being a 38-point thrashing of the Texans. I think it’s a perfect storm for the 49ers to not only cover at home, but win this game outright. I know there’s a lot still at stake for the Jaguars, but I think this is an ideal letdown spot for them. They just clinched their first playoff appearance in 10-years. That’s something the players certainly celebrated. Keep in mind that even with a loss here they could win the division if the struggling Titans lose at home to red-hot Rams. Even if Tennessee were to pull off the upset, Jacksonville could clinch the division with a win the next week at the Titans. Another thing here that I think is getting overlooked with the Jaguars is that 5 of their 6 wins during their 6-1 stretch have come at home. The lone loss was on the road against a Cardinals team that hasn’t been playing well and are decimated with injuries. Like that game against Arizona, this contest against the 49ers comes a long way from home, which will only make it that much harder on this team. The other big thing for me is that I don’t think you can treat the 49ers like a 5-10 team. They are a perfect 3-0 with Garoppolo at quarterback and he’s looked every bit the part of a franchise quarterback. Garoppolo threw for 293 yards in his first start at Chicago, he then threw for 334 yards at Houston and capped it off last week with 381 yards against the Titans. He’s got this entire franchise in a frenzy with his play. More than anything, he’s given the rest of this team a reason to be excited and that’s a big reason why we have seen this team play so well despite having nothing to play for. Keep in mind that the 49ers had 5 losses early in the year by 3-points or less. You have to believe that had Garoppolo been the starter the entire way in 2017, the perception of this team would be a lot different, as they would likely be sitting at at least 8-6 right now. I think that 49ers team might actually be favored here against the Jags, so it’s easy to see the value with the current line. Give me San Francisco +4.5! |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Titans +7) As much as I like this Rams team, I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line based of LA’s result last week at Seattle. Keep in mind that the Rams caught the Seahawks at the perfect time, as they were without their top two linebacker in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner, on top of already being without the likes of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman. What can’t be overlooked is just how big a game that was for the Rams in their quest for winning the NFC West title. I think there’s a decent chance we see Los Angeles suffer a letdown here on the road against the Titans, especially given that there’s no pressure for them to win this game. Even with a loss they can secure up the division at home next week against the 49ers. At the same time, there’s a good chance the Seahawks lose at Dallas, which would also do the trick. On the flip side of this, this couldn’t be a much bigger game for the Titans, who simply can’t afford a loss with where they are sitting in the standings. At the same time, you can’t overreact to the fact that Tennessee is coming off back-to-back losses at Arizona and San Francisco, who are two teams out of the playoff picture. The Titans simply are a different team at home than they are on the road. Tennessee is 5-1 at home compared to just 3-5 on the road. The last time the Titans lost on their home field was Week 1 against the Raiders. While the Rams aren’t just a team that relies on their ability to run the football, they are at their best offensively when Gurley is picking up big yards on the ground. I think that makes this a good matchup for Tennessee, as the strength of their defense is stopping the run. The Titans are ranked 5th in the NFL, allowing just 87 rushing yards/game and are even better at home, where they are allowing just 74 yards/game and just 3.4 yards/carry. There’s also a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Rams in this spot. Road favorites who are averaging 27+ points/game on the season are just 20-46 (30%) ATS after a game in which they led by 21 or more points at the half since 1983. That’s a 70% system backing the Titans to at least cover this spread. Give me the Titans +7! |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL SATURDAY BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Under 41) First things first, conditions aren't going to be ideal for scoring in Baltimore on Saturday. While temperatures are expected to be a modest 60 or so degrees, it's going to be windy, with winds expected around 15 mph throughout. Not to mention a 50% chance of rain. That's definitely a plus, but I also think these two teams could struggle to eclipse 40 points in ideal conditions. Let's start with the Colts offense. I'm not quite sure how they are going to move the ball against this Ravens defense. Indy's offensive line is a mess. They lost their best lineman in center Ryan Kelly a couple weeks ago and won't have starting right tackle Denzelle Good for this one. The Ravens rank in the top 10 in sacks and in pass defense. They will force feed Frank Gore, but I don't know how much success they will have, as Baltimore is equally as good against the run. It would not surprise me the least if the Ravens pitched a shutout, though I'm sure Indy will find a way to put some points on the board, just not very many. Note they have scored 17 or fewer in 5 straight. I'm not just banking on the Colts not being able to score, but I'm counting on Indy's defense to play with some pride. If they don't, this will have a hard time staying under. With that said, I'll take my chances they come to play. This is a team knew their season was a lost cause with the Andrew Luck injury. This is just another chance for them to get a win and I love the fact that they are getting zero respect as a near two touchdown underdog. It's also worth noting the Colts have had a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. Baltimore's offense has been better, but there's no need for them to run up the score if things get out of hand, as they have bigger things in mind than just this game. Give me the UNDER 41! |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5) These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/RAIDERS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Raiders +3) There’s no sugar-coating the Raiders lackluster performance last week in Kansas City. Not only did they not play well, they didn’t seem to have the fire you would expect given it was against one of their hated rivals and with the division on the line. Simply put, it was embarrassing showing by this team. Any time a team plays that poorly, we often see them come back with one of their best efforts and I expect just that against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. As for Dallas, I think people are getting a little too excited with their recent performances. Two weeks ago they beat the Redskins 38-14, but Washington was decimated with injuries. They also scored 2 late touchdowns to make it look a lot worse than it was. Keep in mind that banged up Redskins team followed that up by losing 13-30 at the Chargers. They then escaped with a win over a decimated Giants team, who also had all the off field distractions with their coach getting fired in the week leading up to the game. Again, Dallas made that look like a bigger blowout than it was, as they were tied 10-10 with less than 8 minutes to play and won by 20. I believe taking advantage of two teams who were missing several key players has a lot of people forgetting what this team looked like in the first 3 games without Ezekiel Elliott. For those that forgot, they lost 7-27 at Atlanta, 9-37 at home to the Eagles and 6-28 at home to the Chargers. I think we are going to see Derek Carr and that Raiders offense put up some points, while the Oakland defense feeds off the energy of the home crowd with one of their better showings. Give me the Raiders +3! |
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12-17-17 | Titans v. 49ers -1 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (49ers -1) I was on the 49ers in their win last week against the Texans and will back them again here. Usually when a team is sitting at 3-10 this late in the season, you have big time concerns with them even being motivated to play. That’s not the case with San Francisco, as this team is playing with a whole new sense of confidence under quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. I think 49ers fullback Kyle Juszcyk says it best, “It gets everyone excited. I mean, it feels like a whole new season here. It feels like we started last week. Especially, getting a win, we wish we had more games left. We wish we had a full season to do this thing with him.” Not only has it brought life to the team, but the fan base couldn’t be more excited about the future. I expect a lot of the 49ers faithful to show up for this game and give San Francisco a big home field edge here. At the same time, I’m not the high on this Tennessee team. The Titans haven’t been playing anywhere close to as well as their 6-2 record over their last 8 games would suggest. In fact, they were lucky to win a number of those contests, as 4 of the 6 wins came by 4-points or less with the two blowout wins coming at home against the Colts and Texans. Offensively the Titans seem to be lost and a big reason for that is the poor play of quarterback Marcus Mariota. In his last 4 games he’s thrown just three touchdowns with 8 interceptions. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for a mere 184 yards against the Colts, 150 yards against the Texans and 159 yards against the Cardinals. San Francisco’s overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but in their last 3 games they are allowing just 18 ppg and a mere 258.7 ypg. The defense has been especially good against the run, giving up just 80.7 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. It’s not like the Titans are running the ball all that effectively either, as they have had rushed for fewer than 95 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. It’s also worth noting that Tennessee is a team that has not played well on the road this time of year. They are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. They are also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a losing home record. San Francisco on the other hand is an impressive 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset win as a road dog. Give me the 49ers -1! |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -3 v. Steelers | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Patriots -3) I’m going to take the New England Patriots -3 on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers. If history tells us anything, I think it’s that you don’t bet against the Patriots off a loss, especially an ugly showing like they had against the Dolphins in Week 14. New England is 41-19-2 ATS since the start of the 2001 season following a loss and a ridiculous 22-4 SU and 23-3 ATS when in this spot and listed as an underdog or favorite of 3-points or less. They are also 24-7 ATS in their last 31 off a game where they had less than 250 total yards and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a game where they allowed more than 350 yards. I know it’s not something you see often from a New England team, but I don’t think this team showed up with the right mindset against the Dolphins. Part of it was the lack of respect for Miami and that team and the other was they had this massive game on deck against Pittsburgh. Let’s also not overlook that’s not the first time they have struggled on the road against the Dolphins. One thing New England hasn’t done is struggle to find ways to beat these Steelers. The Patriots have won 4 straight in the series, which includes three wins over the last two seasons. They won 28-21 in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. Last year they not only beat them 27-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 7, but destroyed them 36-17 later on in the AFC Championship Game. As you can see from the results, Bill Belichick and his staff have done a masterful job of keeping this high-powered Steelers offense in check, while the offense has had their way with the Pittsburgh defense. Another thing that I think is getting overlooked here is just how fortunate the Steelers are to be riding an 8-game winning streak and sitting at 11-2. Let’s just look at their last 6 games. They have trailed by double-digits going into the 4th quarter of each of their last two games against the Ravens and Bengals. Needed overtime to beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers at home 31-28. They trailed the Colts 3-17 in the 2nd half of a 20-17 win and were bailed out by bad coaching in a 10-15 win agains the Lions, as Detroit went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals twice in the 2nd half. I just don’t think that’s the sign of a 11-2 team and it’s only a matter of time before their luck runs out. I know the Patriots are banged up right now, but they will be getting back Gronkowski from suspension. Not having him is a big reason why Brady and the offense struggled against the Dolphins. This is also not the same Steelers defense as it was a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh lost in my opinion their most important defensive player in Ryan Shazier in that physical game with Cincinnati. Without him last week they gave up 38 points and over 400 yards to a bad Ravens offense. New England is going to take full advantage of his absence in this one. It’s also worth pointing out that the Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Lastly, favorites who have won 3 of their last 4 against and are playing a team that has won 8 or more games in their last 10 are a dominant 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Pats -3! |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS SNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +1.5) I'll gladly take the points here with Kansas City. It’s amazing how much the perception has changed on these two teams since they last met. Keep in mind that the Chiefs were a 2.5-point road favorite in LA for that first meeting, which means at that time KC would have been close to a 8.5 favorite at home. I’m just not buying it and while I don’t think the Chiefs should be laying more than a touchdown, they should be favored by at least a field goal. I know it’s been a rough go of things for Kansas City since that 5-0 start, as they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games. What gets overlooked is that while they weren’t playing great, they were in just about everyone of those games they lost. More than anything, I think the win over the Raiders was huge for the psyche of this team. That’s also now two straight games in which the offense has looked good. Had it not been for a couple dropped passes deep in Oakland territory, KC would have put up 40 on the Raiders. The week before they had 31 points and nearly 500 yards against the Jets. When this team is clicking offensively they are very tough to beat. I also like the matchup here, as the Chiefs are at their best when they can run the football. The Chargers are 29th in the NFL, giving up 124.8 ypg against the run. The other thing here is the Chiefs’ defense has had Philip Rivers’ number. They picked him off 3 times in the first meeting this season and since Andy Reid and Bob Sutton came to KC, Rivers has a mere 79.3 QB rating in 9 games against the Chiefs, throwing just as many interceptions (11) as he has touchdowns (11). Another huge factor here that I think gives the Chiefs a huge edge is the atmosphere that we will see in Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be electric for this prime time matchup, which is going to feel like a playoff game with what’s at stake. Keep in mind that a win here and the Chiefs would simply need to beat either Miami at home or Denver on the road in their final two games to lock up the AFC West title. Give me Kansas City +1.5! |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts OVER 40.5 | 25-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
40* BRONCOS/COLTS TNF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 40.5) I think we are simply seeing a bit of an overreaction to the low-scoring games these two teams just played in. Denver’s defense was sensational against the Jets. Not only did the shutout New York, they limited the Jets to just 100 total yards and 6 first downs. The Colts on the other hand played in a game against the Bills where the two teams combined for a mere 20-points with 6 of those coming in overtime. Though that was in blizzard-like conditions so that's nothing to read into. Denver’s strong showing at home against the Jets didn’t surprise me. The Broncos had basically hit rock bottom the previous week in a 9-35 los at Miami. I expected them to come out and play one of their better games and they did just that. I just don’t think we are going to get that same kind of effort here on the road against the Colts. Not only is there little to get excited about with playing Indy, but it’s extremely difficult for teams to play up to their potential defensively in these Thursday night games. They simply don’t have enough time to recover with just a 3-day break. Keep in mind that prior to last week’s shutout against the Jets, Denver’s opponents had scored 20 or more against them in 8 straight games. Not to mention the Broncos are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg on the road this season. So while the Colts have been struggling to score, I think we see them have a decent showing here at home. Same thing goes for the Denver offense, who should be able to build off last week’s strong showing against a wore down and not very good Colts defense. Indy is also a team that is completely out of the playoff picture and are going to try and get a lot more young guys on the field to evaluate for next year. Let’s also not forget that this game is being played in perfect conditions with it being in a dome. That’s another big factor here that favors a high-scoring game. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. Give me the OVER 40.5! |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5) I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5! |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +125 v. Jaguars | 24-30 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS MONEY LINE ANNIHILATOR (Seahawks +125) I believe the books have simply missed the mark here with making Jacksonville the favorite and I'll gladly back Seattle on the money line. While the Jaguars are 5-1 in their last 6 and have an identical 8-4 record as the Seahawks, I don’t think they are anywhere close to being on the same level as Seattle. One of the big reasons that Jacksonville is sitting at 8-4 is the schedule they have played. During their 5-1 stretch, they have two wins over the Colts, a win at home over the Bengals and a victory at Cleveland. The only decent win during this run is a 20-17 home win over the Chargers, who I’m also not convinced is as good as they are getting credit for. As for Seattle, this is the time of the season where they always seem to play their best football. I know they have some big injuries, especially on defense, but there’s more than enough talent on this roster for them to keep playing well. Just look at what that defense did last week against the Eagles, holding Carson Wentz and that high-powered Philadelphia offense to just 10 points. What also gets lost in all the injuries for Seattle is they still have a healthy Russell Wilson at quarterback. He’s playing at an elite level right now, as he continues to find ways to produce, despite the fact that the’s running for his life just about every time he drops back to pass. This Jaguars defense is no joke, but I’m confident that Wilson will find a way to move the chains and put points on the board. I also think Jacksonville has some major injury concerns of their own. Starting left tackle Cam Robinson is questionable after missing the last game and his backup, Josh Wells is also questionable. Starting left guard Patrick Omaheh, star corner Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Telvin Smith are also all listed as questionable. A huge key here for me is the matchup for Seattle’s defense. It’s no secret that the Jacksonville is a one-dimensional offense that relies heavily on their ability to run the football. That plays right into the strength of this Seahawks defense, which ranks 7th against the run, allowing just 98.3 ypg. That means for the Jags to move the ball, Blake Bortles is going to have to make plays and I just don’t see that happening. I mentioned earlier how this is the time of year where the Seahawks play their best football. Backing this up is the fact that Seattle is a ridiculous 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games played in the month of December. This is also a team that owns a 31-19 ATS mark in 50 games under Pete Carroll when they are listed as an underdog. Give me the Seahawks +125 on the money line! |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +3) It can be difficult to bet on games like this one, where you have two teams that are all but out of the playoff picture. I know the Texans are technically still alive, but I don’t think anyone is fooling the players on this team that they have a shot at making the playoffs with a 4-8 record with 4 weeks to play. I think this team went into last week’s game against the Titans knowing that they needed to win that game to keep their slim hopes alive. I believe that’s going to make it really hard for Houston to show up here against a 49ers team that has one of the worst records in the league at 2-10. Not only do I think the Texans are going to be lacking motivation here, but the injury situation just keeps getting worse and worse for this team. In last week’s game against Tennessee, they had 6 players leave the team and not return. They were forced to use running back Andre Ellington as a slot receiver. Tom Savage had to basically tell Ellington where to line up and who to block on each play. At least two of those players, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and wide out Bruce Ellington won’t be back this week, as each has been placed on IR. I got a feeling a lot of the other guys on Houston’s injury report that are listed as questionable won’t end up playing, as it’s just not worth playing hurt when there’s nothing to play for. The big key here is that the 49ers are a team that I think is going to continue to come out and fight each week the rest of the way. There’s a ton of excitement with this team and the potential going forward with Garoppolo as their quarterback. I also think the fact that San Francisco traded for Garoppolo, eliminates any concern of them trying to tank and lose games for a higher draft pick. There was a lot to like with Garoppolo’s first start against the Bears. He completed 26 of 37 attempts for 293 yards. Keep in mind that was against a good Chicago defense, which is sitting 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up only 221.0 ypg. Now he faces a Houston secondary that is banged up (could be without top corner Jonathan Joseph) and currently ranked 22nd against the pass, giving up 235.8 ypg. Lastly, it’s worth nothing that I still think the 49ers can win and cover here, even if the Texans are still holding on to the hope they can make the playoffs. That’s because this Houston offense simply can’t be trusted with Tom Savage at quarterback. Give me the 49ers +3! |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers +3) I went against the Vikings last week with Atlanta. A game in which the difference was the Falcons had to settle for 3 field goals, while both of Minnesota’s score were touchdowns. I’m going to go against the Vikings again here, as I just don’t think this Carolina team should be a dog against anyone on their home field. The Panthers 10-point loss at New Orleans doesn’t concern me, as the Saints are as tough as anyone to beat on their home field. I’ll take my chances here with Carolina rebounding at home against the Vikings, as we should see a desperate Panthers team that may need to win out just to make the playoffs. Another big key here is this is not a great spot for Minnesota. The Vikings will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and each of the previous two have been huge games. The first was that Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, which at the time the Lions were still in the hunt for the NFC North lead. Then they had last week’s huge game at the Falcons. I just think it’s asking a lot of this team to go into Carolina and get a win against this team. Note that teams playing 3 straight on the road going back to the start of the 2000 season have won that 3rd road game just 34% of the time and are just 43.5% ATS. It gets even worse if they are playing a good team that’s won more than 60% of their games, as the team playing their 3rd straight on the road have won outright just 24% of the time and covered only 33% of the time. While the Panthers don’t have the offensive fire-power of the Falcons, this team has been playing much better on that side of the ball here of late. They have scored at least 20 in 4 straight and are averaging 33.7 ppg over their last 3. Given the situation for the Vikings, I think we see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense be able to move the ball and unlike Atlanta, finish off drives with touchdowns and not field goals. I also think Minnesota is going to have a really tough time moving the ball here against this Carolina defense. The Panthers are only giving up 19.8 ppg (10th) and are 6th in the NFL in total defense (297.6 ypg). They are also a balanced defense, ranking inside the top 10 against both the run (4th, 88.6 ypg) and the pass (7th, 209 ypg). It’s also worth noting that the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a loss and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing a division game last time out. Carolina is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when listed as an underdog and 4-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Give me the Panthers +3! |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
40* SAINTS/FALCONS TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Falcons +1) The home team has such a big advantage in these Thursday games, but because of how well the Saints have been playing and the Falcons off a home loss to similarly strong team in the Vikings, we are getting exceptional value here with Atlanta at home. Not only is this a tough spot for New Orleans on the road, but you have to wonder just how much this team has left in the tank, as they have had to lay it all on the line the last two weeks against the Rams and Panthers. Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is poised for a breakout game here after a tough go of things last week against an elite Minnesota defense. The Saints are better on defense, but are not on the same level as the Vikings. Give me the Falcons +1! |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 18 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWUT (Chiefs -3) It’s hard to put a finger on what’s exactly happened to the Chiefs. Outside of losing Eric Berry in Week 1, they haven’t really been hit that hard with injuries. If anything the key guys have been lost on defense, which doesn’t explain the big decline in production from the offense. The biggest difference is the lack of success the Chiefs have had running the ball. During their 5-0 start, KC averaged 156.2 ypg on the ground. Over their 1-5 stretch they have rushed for a mere 76.3 ypg. Years ago the Jets would be the last team you want to face when you couldn’t run the ball, but that’s not the case now a days. New York comes in ranked 26th in the NFL, giving up 120.4 ypg on the ground. Just last week they gave up 145 on their home field to the Panthers. I think this is a defense the Chiefs can get right against. It’s also not just all the running game, Alex Smith has to play better than he has and again this is a team I think he will play well against. I also think we are getting exceptional value here with Kansas City. What really has everyone down on this team is not only were they struggling to win games, they haven’t been covering. A big reason for that is they were way overvalued coming off that 5-0 start, laying 10-points on the road and more than a touchdown against the Bills. The books have finally adjusted, as the public is off this team. Just a coupe weeks ago I think the Chiefs would have been closer to a touchdown favorite here, but instead we get them laying only a field goal. It would be one thing if the Jets were 3-3 over their last 6 and showed the ability to close out games, but they are 1-5 and you have to wonder just how much more fight this team has left in them. It’s do or die fo the Chiefs in this game. I’ll put my trust here in Andy Reid and his staff putting together a game plan to leave New York with a win. Give me Kansas City -3! |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 43 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -2.5) I would have to lean here towards taking Baltimore and would strongly consider buying it down to 2.5 or wait it out and see if it doesn’t drop (public is on the Lions). I personally am just not all that impressed with Detroit. They are 3-4 in their last 7 and those 3 wins came against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, Browns at home and at Chicago. Keep in mind that was Green Bay’s first game without Rodgers and they were outgained and trailed by double-digits to both Cleveland and Chicago. The loss to the Vikings last week isn’t a shocker, but note Detroit had a big edge in that game playing at home on a short week of rest. As for the Ravens, I’m not exactly sold on this team either. The big reason for that is the offense is one of the worst in the league. Defensively they are elite in my eyes, especially now that they are healthy. They had a stretch during the middle of the season where they didn’t play great on that side of the ball, but were missing some key guys. Baltimore is also one of the best in the league at special teams, which can win you a lot of games in this league. I think this is a game where they can get some offense going. The Lions rank 26th in the league, giving up 359.4 ypg and are in the bottom 10 against both the run (24th, 116.2) and the pass (23rd, 243.2 ypg). Hard to trust a team that doesn’t play defense on the road. It’s also worth pointing out that their run defense has really struggled away from home, as they are giving up 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Getting the run game going will do wonders for this Ravens offense. I also give Baltimore an edge when Detroit has the ball. It’s no secret that the Lions’ offense is built around Matthew Stafford and their passing attack. That plays right into the strength of this Ravens stop unit. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL when it comes to holding opposing quarterbacks in check, as they are allowing just 189.9 ypg through the air. Look for Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Ravens front to live in the Lions backfield. That should be a recipe for at least a couple turnovers to help set up the offense with some short fields. Note that Baltimore leads the NFL with 26 takeaways. They have forced 2 or more in 6 of their 11 games and have 13 in their 5 home games this season. Detroit has committed at least 1 turnover in 7 straight games. I just think there’s too much here pointing in favor of the Ravens and with the short price I think we are getting great value. Give me Baltimore -2.5! |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 30 m | Show |
50* NFL *NFC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -2.5) This is simply too good of a price to pass up with Atlanta. After struggling to put it all together early on, the Falcons have started to look more and more like the team that steamrolled through the NFC playoffs a season ago. It feels like the turning point in their season was that ugly 7-23 loss at New England. Since that defeat, they have gone 4-1. The only game they lost was at Carolina by 3-points, a game they could have easily won. They had a 10-point lead early and won the yardage and turnover battle. In their last 3 games they have crushed the Cowboys 27-7 at home, went on the road and beat the Seahawks in prime time on Monday Night Football and completed dominated a division rival in the Bucs. The best teams in the NFL rarely lose on their home field and that where I feel we get the value when you have two good teams playing each other. We saw this two weeks ago with the Vikings, when they hosted the Rams, who had won 4 straight. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite and won that game 24-7. Similar story last week with the Rams hosting the Saints. New Orleans had won 8 straight and were just a 3-point road dog, but it was LA that won 26-20. While the Vikings win last week at Detroit might be considered a good road win, I just don’t think the Lions are that great of a team. The only other wins for Minnesota away from home are against the Redskins, Bears and Browns (London). Their only loss came at Pittsburgh by a final of 9-26 and keep in mind they were an 8-point dog on the road against the Steelers. I see this Falcons team a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Detroit and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons ran away with this one. Give me Atlanta -2.5! |
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11-30-17 | Redskins -1.5 v. Cowboys | 14-38 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL REDSKINS/COWOBYS TNF NO BRAINER (Redskins -1.5) I just don’t trust this Dallas team right now. Not only is the offense missing their biggest weapon in running back Ezekiel Elliot, they have numerous players ailing along the offensive line. Left tackle Tyron Smith was able to return last week, but he’s still dealing with both groin and back problems. Right tackle La’el Collins figures to play, but also isn’t practicing because of back problems. On top of all that, second year quarterback Dak Prescott is not playing well. He completed 20 of 27 attempts against LA, but only finished with 179 yards. He also threw 2 more interceptions, giving him 5 in the 3 games since Elliott’s suspension started. He’s also not thrown a single touchdown pass during this stretch. It’s not just the offense that is struggling, the defense has allowed at least 27 points during the 3-game slide. A big part of that is they are having to be on the field a lot more. They have also been without All-Pro linebacker Sean Lee the last two games and he's the one guy this defense couldn't afford to lose. During the Cowboys 3-game slide since Elliott’s suspension they have been outscored 92-22 and have failed to score at least 10 points in any game. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all 3 contests. I know Washington has a laundry list of injuries that they are dealing with, but this team has shown the ability to fight through them. More than anything, I trust Kirk Cousins and this Redskins offense to be able to score and I see no reason why the defense won’t be able to hold their own with how poorly Dallas’ offense is performing without Elliott. Give me the Redskins -1.5! |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens UNDER 39.5 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 39.5) I just don't see these two teams doing a whole lot offensively in this game. Baltimore had a stretch where they were hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but they got a lot of those guys back and are back to being an elite defensive team, which is evident by the 2 shutouts they have had in their last 3 games. I just don't see a Tom Savage run Houston offense being able to do much of anything, as the Ravens should be able to take away the running game and force Savage to beat them with his arm, something I don't think he's capable of doing on the road. The other key here is that the Texans are still an above-average defensive teams and Baltimore is one of the worst offenses in the league. The Ravens rank dead last in passing offense, averaging just 165.2 ypg through the air and have rushed for less than 75 yards in 3 of their last 4. Not to mention the Texans run D has been on point of late, as they are giving up just 69.3 ypg over their last 4. That puts even more pressure on Baltimore's anemic passing attack and I just don't see them doing a lot. I think both teams could struggle to score 17 in this one. Give me the UNDER 39.5! |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -120 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -120) I just think there’s too much value here with the Rams laying less than a field goal at home against the Saints. New Orleans is getting way too much respect here on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL. A lot of that has to do with the fact that the Saints have won 8 straight and own a 7-1 ATS record during this stretch. At the same time, the public was just burned by the Rams in last week’s ugly loss to the Vikings. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see LA struggle on the road against the Vikings. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the NFL that no one is talking about and have a much bigger home field advantage than they get credit for. In fact, I was on the Vikings in that game. Now it’s the Rams who are almost in an identical spot here against the Saints. Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 8-game winning streak, but a big reason they have won 8 in a row is the schedule has set up perfectly. Only two of the six wins have come against a team that currently has a winning record. One of those was at Carolina, but that was back when Cam Newton was still shaking off the rust from his shoulder surgery. The other was at home against the Lions, who I don’t feel are anywhere close to as good as their 6-4 record would suggest. In my opinion, the Rams are the best team the Saints will have played since they lost at home to the Patriots way back in Week 2. One of the reasons that New Orleans has been playing so well is they are vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately for them, they suffered a big loss in the win over the Redskins, as defensive end Alex Okafor was lost for the season with an Achilles injury. They also lost star rookie corner Marshon Lattimore to an ankle injury and it’s looking unlikely that he will be able to play. Those are two key pieces to their success on that side of the ball and I believe it will be too much to overcome here against a potent Rams offense that is 2nd in the NFL at 30.3 ppg. I also think we see the Saints offense struggle to get going in this one. After struggling to adjust early on to new schemes under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Rams have been playing at an elite level on the defensive side of the ball. Over their last 6 games they are giving up just 13.5 ppg and this is hands down the best defense that New Orleans has faced since their Week 1 loss to Minnesota, where they scored just 19 points. Lastly, the Saints are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when they come in having covered at least 7 of their last 8 and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 25 or more points in 3 straight games. Give me the Rams! |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers +7 | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BIG MONEY UNDERDOG SHOCKER (49ers +7) I'll gladly back San Francisco at home coming off their bye week against the Seahawks. There's no denying the 49ers are in rebuilding mode, but this is also a team that's much better than their 1-9 record, as they have 5 losses by 3 points or less and have been in most of their games. Seattle clearly isn't right after losing at home in a prime time game against the Falcons on Monday Night Football, yet they are getting treated here like an elite team. The thing is the Seahawks have lost a number of key players to injury, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I look for the 49ers to do enough here offensively to keep this close and potentially even win this game outright. Give me San Francisco +7! |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Panthers -5) I just don't see Carolina failing to leave New York with a win. The Panthers are quietly sitting at 7-3 and right in the thick of things in the NFC, but aren't a team that's getting talked about a lot. Not only is this team flying under the radar, but I think they are only getting better as the season goes along. They come in having won 3 straight and simply can't take their foot off the gas with how well the Saints and Falcons are playing inside their division. The Jets were more competitive than anyone expected early on this season, but are just 1-4 in their last 5 and I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy they showed early over the final few weeks of the season. Biggest thing here is I just don't see New York being able to get anything going offensively against this top notch Carolina defense. Give me the Panthers -5! |
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11-26-17 | Titans v. Colts +3.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Colts +3.5) I think the Titans are one of the most overrated teams in the league and that showed in their last game, when they lost 17-40 at Pittsburgh. The Colts on the other hand are a team I feel is trending in the right direction and are simply a lot better than they get credit for. The biggest key here is Tennessee is not a good road team and that's evident by their awful 7-21 ATS record over their last 28 games. Titans have also had a hard time playing well against bad teams, as they are just 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record. Colts are the exact opposite, having gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with winning road record. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 off of their bye week. Give me the Colts +3.5! |
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11-26-17 | Dolphins +17 v. Patriots | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BIG MONEY ATS NO BRAINER (Dolphins +17) As well as the Patriots are playing right now, I can't pass up on catching 3-scores with Miami against their division rivals. The Dolphins have been a hard team to figure out, as one week they look like a playoff contender and the next look like the worst team in the league. My money is on them to at least play well enough to keep this within the number, as there's no team they would rather beat than the Patriots. I also like the fact that Matt Moore is getting the start here instead of Jay Cutler. I just haven't been impressed with Cutler at all this season and I actually think the players have more confidence in Moore giving them a shot to win. I think he gets the offense going and the defense does just enough here to keep the Patriots from running away with this. Give me the Dolphins +17! |
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11-23-17 | Giants +7.5 v. Redskins | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NFL LATE NIGHT THANKSGIVING ATS NO BRAINER (Giants +7.5) I was impressed with how New York responded after being called out by their head coach in the week leading up to their game against Kansas City. They played one of their best games of the season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I believe we will see this team carry over that effort here against a division rival. As for Washington, I think it’s asking a lot of this team to pull away for a comfortable win here. While they aren’t officially out of the playoff race, that loss to the Saints really made things difficult for the Redskins. The Falcons hold the final Wild Card spot in the NFC at 6-4 and there’s 4 teams between Atlanta and Washington. The big concern here for me with the Redskins is they are once again dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Starting center Spencer Long is on IR and backup Chase Roullier just fractured a bone in his hand this past Sunday. Good chance Roulier doesn’t play and if he doesn’t backup guard/tackle Tony Bergstrom will be forced into action at center. The team will also be without starting left guard Shawn Laovao and left tackle Trent Williams will be a go on short rest with a bum knee. Needless to say the offensive line is a complete mess right now and it’s just hard to win games, especially by more than a touchdown when dealing with these kinds of injuries up front. Look for the Giants defensive front to live in Washington's backfield. That’s not the end of the injuries for the Redskins offense. Wide out Terrelle Pryor and running back Chris Thompson both just landed on IR. While Pryor has been a disappointment after signing as a free agent, Thompson is tied for the team lead with 39 receptions and his 510 yards receiving are second only to Vernon Davis with 527. Thompson is also the top backup at running back with Rob Kelly on IR. Same Perine has taken over as the lead back, but he’s questionable, as is tight end Jordan Reed. I know the offense of the Giants is nothing to get excited about, but the Redskins defense has been reeling. Washington has allowed 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. If they struggle at all to find motivation after that crushing loss to the Saints, New York could be in store for one of their best offensive games of the season. At the same time, I don't think they have to be great offensively to keep this within a touchdown, as I don't see this turning into a shootout. Give me the Giants +7.5! |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Lions | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NFL THANKSGIVING BANKROLL FEAST (Vikings -2.5) I'll take the bait here and back Minnesota laying less than a field goal against the Lions. The Vikings are going to be out for revenge here. Not only for their earlier 7-14 loss to Detroit at home, but they have lost 3 straight overall in the series, including a crushing 13-16 loss at Detroit last Thanksgiving. Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points. Despite the fact that Minnesota sits at 8-2, I just don’t feel this team gets the respect they deserve from the books. We saw it last week when they were less than a field goal favorite at home against the Rams. I think we are seeing them undervalued again, as I’m just not buying this Lions team. Sure Detroit is 6-4, but a lot of those wins have come against bad teams, especially during their 3-game winning streak. A stretch in which they have played Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, as well as the Browns and Bears. Note that they had to rally from 10-points down against both Cleveland and Chicago. It’s great they were able to pull out the wins, but I think it also speaks to just how this isn’t an elite team. The Lions were able to hand Minnesota a loss on their home field earlier this season, but that was about as bad as the Vikings have played. They turned it over 3 times, including two early giveaways to start the 2nd half that turned into 10-points for Detroit. The Minnesota defense held the Lions to just 251 yards and I see now reason why the Vikings won’t be able to shutdown Stafford and company again this time around. Another key here is that Minnesota’s offense has improved dramatically since the first month of the season, as Case Keenum is playing as well any QB in the league right now. At the same time, the Lions defense has regressed. Not only did they give up 24 points to two horrible offenses in the Browns and Bears, they allowed each of those teams to rush for over 200 yards. Vikings are a ridiculous 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played inside a dome. Give me Minnesota -2.5! |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NFL FALCONS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -2.5) My money is on the Seahawks laying less than a field goal at home against the Falcons. I just don’t think Seattle is getting near enough respect here in a prime time home game, especially this late in the season and with how much they want this game given what happened in that ugly playoff loss to the Falcons a year ago. Year in and year out under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks always seem to be playing their best football in the 2nd half. I know they lost a huge piece to their defense in Richard Sherman, but they still have two of the best safeties in the game in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. I also think backup Jeremy Lane is capable of holding his own. Lane also has had a few extra days to get use to his new role, as Seattle gets a big advantage here playing with 3 extra days of rest after the Thursday night game. At the same time, I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with Atlanta off that big win over the Cowboys. Dallas is simply not the same team without Ezekiel Elliott and there would have been major concerns had they not won convincingly. I just think that win has people thinking this team is back, but in reality they are 2-4 in their last 5 and more likely to revert back to their old ways. It’s also not like Atlanta’s offense lit the world on fire against the Cowboys and the offense hasn’t looked the same all season. Even without Sherman this is a top notch Seahawks defense that is only giving up 18.3 ppg. I also don’t think the offense gets enough respect, especially at home. Seattle is averaging an impressive 28.2 ppg and 426 ypg at home this season. Look for Russell Wilson and the offense to steal the show in this prime time affair. Give me the Seahawks -2.5! |
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11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 89 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ravens -2) I believe the fact that Green Bay was able to pull out a victory in Chicago has provided some hope that the Packers aren’t completely done for without Rodgers. I’m not buying it, as I don’t think any player means more to their team than Rodgers. Let’s also not overlook the win came against the Bears, a team they know very well with them being in the same division, plus Chicago is a bad team. I know the Ravens haven’t been playing great here of late, but this is a great spot to back them, as Baltimore is coming off of their bye. A big time advantage this late in the season. It’s also a spot in which they have excelled, as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games off their bye week. I also love this matchup for the Ravens, who are a top tier defensive team. Baltimore is 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 311 yards/game. While the run defense hasn’t been great, Green Bay isn’t a strong running team and could be without their two best options out of the backfield. Aaron Jones had really come on strong for the Packers, but he’s out 3-6 weeks with an MCL injury and backup Ty Montgomery is questionable with a rib injury. That’s going to put too much pressure on Brett Hundley, who simply isn’t very good. The big concern with Baltimore is their offense and rightfully so. The Ravens rank 30th out of 32 teams at just 286.6 ypg. However, this Packers defense is getting exposed now that they are being asked to do a lot more with the offense struggling to score. In Green Bay’s 3 games without Rodgers, the defense has allowed 408.3 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. While the win over the Bears certainly helped keep this line from being more, I also think Green Bay is getting more respect than it deserves on their home field. Keep in mind we already have seen them lose badly at home in two games without Rodgers, falling 17-26 to the Saints and 17-30 to the Lions and that game against Detroit was on Monday Night Football, when you would expect the home field edge to be at it’s strongest. Give me the Ravens -2! |
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11-19-17 | Redskins +8 v. Saints | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins +8) As hard as it is to go against a red-hot team like the Saints, I would have to lean towards taking the points here with Washington. Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 7-game winning streak, as it’s no easy task to win that many in a row, regardless of who you are playing, but it’s certainly been a favorable stretch for them. In just their last 4 games they have faced Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears and Bucs at home and a clearly dysfunctional Bills team that is doing everything they can to ruin this season. The latest move being benching starting QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman. They also have a home win over the Lions and win against the Dolphins in London where Miami didn’t show up to play. The best win of the bunch is a victory at Carolina way back in Week 3. That looks great now with how the Panthers are playing, but keep in mind that Cam Newton was playing at less than 100% early in the year. Now I’m not saying the Saints are going to lose this game at home, I just think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by more than a touchdown against a good but not great Washington team. Despite a rash of injuries, including a stretch where they were missing 4 starting offensive linemen, the Redskins have showed a lot of fight and this feels like a game they need to have to keep their playoff hopes alive. We also have a strong system that backs this being a good time to fade the Saints. Favorites in the NFL that are averaging 27 or more points/game are just 9-27 (25%) ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games since 1983. Give me the Redskins +8! |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 89 h 41 m | Show |
50* NFL SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Vikings -2) The Vikings simply aren’t getting enough respect on their home field. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach, Minnesota has gone 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS at home. One of things I like about this Vikings team is you rarely hear anyone talking about them, despite the fact that they are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL at 7-2. LA has that same 7-2 record and they are getting all kinds of love. Mainly because no one saw this coming. Either way, I think it’s going to have the Vikings playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to send a message to the rest of the league that they are for real. This is also a huge game in terms of a potential first round bye in the playoffs. The biggest thing for me in this matchup is I believe the Vikings have the talent defensively to slow down this high-powered Rams attack. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run (81.3 ypg) and are 12th against the pass (213.2 ypg). No one enjoys shutting down a great offense more than Zimmer, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the game today. Since he took over at Minnesota, the Vikings are 11-2 ATS in 13 games against excellent passing teams, who average 260 or more yards/game through the air. They are also 8-1 ATS in 9 games against teams that average 375 or more total yards/game. Another factor here that I think favors Minnesota is the Rams have kind of been on cruise control here of late. Each of their 4 games during their winning streak have been decided by 10 or more points. They haven’t been in a closely contest battle in more than a month. The Vikings on the other hand are team that’s got countless close wins under their resume over the last few seasons and my money is on them to find a way to win this game at home. Give me Minnesota -2! |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
40* NFL THURSDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Steelers -7) Most people expected the Steelers to cruise to an easy win and cover against the Colts last Sunday, but that didn’t happen. Pittsburgh was lucky just to leave Indianapolis with a win. I think that performance will have a lot of people looking to back the Titans catching a touchdown in this Thursday night matchup, but I’m just not a believer in this Tennessee team and will take my chances with the Steelers at home in a prime time game. It’s no secret that the home team has a huge edge in these Thursday games when both teams are playing on short rest. That combined with the fact the Titans have no been a good road team is a big reason why I’m willing to lay the touchdown here. Tennessee hasn’t played on the road since they went to Cleveland back on 10/22 and they barely beat the Browns, needing overtime to escape with a 12-9 win. The Titans also lost at Miami 10-16 and at Houston 14-57 in their previous two on the highway. As you can see, the offense has really struggled to put up points away from home and it’s not going to get any easier here against a very good Steelers defense. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 16.4 ppg and are also 2nd in total defense, allowing just 284.5 ypg. One thing Pittsburgh does very well is stop the run. They haven’t allowed a team to rush for more than 71 yards in each of their last 4 games. While Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a quality signal caller, Tennessee ranks just 27th in the NFL at 203.9 passing yards/game. As for the Steelers offense, you simply can’t read to much into their lackluster showings in their last two games at Detroit and at Indianapolis. For whatever reason, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense just doesn’t play well on the road. With a tired and banged up Titans defense coming to town, I look for Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense to have a lot of success here against what I think is an overrated Tennessee defense. The Titans rank just 23rd in points allowed, giving up 23.7 ppg, despite an easy schedule. In their 9 games they have faced numerous bad offenses, such as the Jaguars, Dolphins, Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals. Titans are also not a team that has performed well off a win, as they are just 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games off a win. Tennessee is also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game in which they didn’t cover the number and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Steelers -7! |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers UNDER 38.5 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 42 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/PANTHERS MNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 38.5) I'm willing to take my chances here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football when the Dolphins visit the Panthers. Not a lot of explanation needed to why we should expect to see a low-scoring game, as we have two of the NFL's best defenses facing off against two of the worst offenses in a prime time matchup. Carolina leads the NFL in total defense, giving up just 274 ypg, while Miami is 10th, allowing just 315 ypg. The Panthers are only scoring 18.7 ppg and the Dolphins just 14.5 ppg (9 ppg on the road). UNDER is 20-8 in the Dolphins last 28 road games when they are listed as a dog of 7.5 to 14 points and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs the NFC. UNDER is also 31-13 in the Panthers last 44 home games with a total of 38.5 to 52 and 13-1 in their last 14 when coming off a win by 3 points or less. Take the UNDER! |
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11-12-17 | Packers v. Bears -4 | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Bears -4) I think a lot of people are going to have a hard time grasping the Bears being a favorite against the Packers, even with Rodgers sidelined. More than anything, I don’t think the public trusts Chicago enough to take advantage of the opportunity. I’m on the other side of this, as I don’t think the loss of Rodgers is being taken into account enough. It certainly wasn’t in Green Bay’s last two games when they lost at home to the Saints 17-26 as a 4-point dog and then to Detroit as a mere 2.5-point dog at home. Based on what we have seen from backup quarterback Brett Hundley, I would have to lay the points with Chicago in this one. The Packers simply aren’t as talented as people think, as Rodgers does a really good job of making them look better than they are. Especially on offense, where Green Bay’s offensive line has been stinking it up for years. The Packers have also had a horrible time running the ball, despite defenses having to pay so much respect to Rodgers and his arm. I just think it’s asking a lot of Hundley and this offense to score enough to keep this game competitive against the Bears. Not a lot was expected of Chicago this season and at 3-5 most just think they are playing up to their potential. While the offense has a long way to go, the defense has been one of the best in the league. Chicago ranks 8th overall in total defense (312 ypg) and are in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. They have been especially stingy at home, where they are given up just 15.7 ppg. All of this and we haven’t even got into the huge scheduling advantage that the Bears have. With Chicago coming off a bye, they get 13 days to rest up and prepare for the Packers. On the flip side of this, Green Bay has just 5 days to get ready after playing on Monday Night Football. I also don’t think there’s a ton of hope here for the Packers offense with Hundely. If they were going to figure things out, they would have done so during their bye week leading up to last week’s game against Detroit. Another thing here is I think we could see the best game from Bears rookie Mitchell Trubisky, who has had to face some really good defenses in his first 4 starts (Vikings, Ravens, Panthers and Saints). Green Bay isn’t a great defensive team, as they are just 25th in the NFL, giving up 357 ypg and have been especially bad on the road, where they are giving up 29.3 ppg. Give me the Bears -4. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | 47-10 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bills +3) As well as the Saints have been playing, I think the value here is with Buffalo catching a field goal at home. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring their opponents by 10.5 points/game. Had it not been for that ugly loss to the Jets in prime time last week, I think this would be closer to a pick’em and maybe even have Buffalo favored. Keep in mind the Bills had won 4 of their previous 5 games before the loss. Another key thing with the performance against New York, you can’t overlook how difficult it is for a lot of these teams to play on the road with that short week of rest and preparation. I don’t think there’s any doubt that’s no where close to an accurate showing of how this team has played. Also, the scheduling aspect now works in their favor, as they get an extra 3 days of rest and time to prepare due to playing on Thursday. I know New Orleans is 3-1 away from home this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and some lucky breaks like going to Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers to an injury. Historically this Saints team has not been nearly the same team on the road as they have at home and Buffalo can be one of the more difficult places to play, especially this late in the season. When most people think of the Saints offense the first thing that comes to mind is Drew Brees and the passing attack. However, they have been running the ball effectively this year. I think that’s important to note, as there have been 4 games where they were held to 105 or less yards and in all 4 games they scored 20 or fewer points (2-2 record). On the flip side, they have rushed for 145 or more in their other 4 games and scored 26 or more in all 4 of those. I believe the Bills are a team that can really make it tough on the Saints rushing attack. Buffalo comes in ranked 8th in the NFL giving up just 94.4 ypg on the ground. They have also held 5 of their 8 opponents to fewer than 80 yards and are giving up just 68 yards/game at home this season. New Orleans is just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they came into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Buffalo on the other hand is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games played in Weeks 10 through 13 and 3-0-1 ATS at home this season. Give me the Bills +3. |
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11-12-17 | Vikings -2 v. Redskins | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -2) The Vikings have one of the best records in the NFL at 6-2 and have accomplished this mark with backup quarterback Case Keenum starting the majority of the games. That just goes to tell you have talented and deep this Vikings team is across the board. I just don’t think they are getting near the respect they deserve coming off their bye. Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the Redskins, as well as refresh their bodies and minds for the stretch run. On the flip side of this, you have a Redskins team that just played a very physical game on the road in Seattle, where they really had to grind it out for the win. I just think it’s going to be tough for Washington to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take down the Vikings. Keep in mind that this is a Redskins team that has just been decimated with injuries here over the last month. Lets also not overlook just how fortunate a win that was for Washington against the Seahawks. They were outgained on the game by nearly 200 yards and benefited from 3 missed field goals by Seattle kicker Blair Walsh. If he just makes two of those, good chance the Seahawks win that game. I think if the Redskins would have lost, we would be looking at the Vikings laying closer to a field goal. I also like the matchup here for Minnesota’s offense, which is really the key to their success, as the defense is one of the best in the NFL and will hold the opponent in check more times than not. The Vikings are at their best when they can establish the running game and should be able to do just that against the Redskins. Washington’s run defense has taken a big hit with the recent injuries and have allowed 139.4 yards/game against the run over their last 5. Lastly, the Redskins are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Give me the Vikings -2. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NFL (SEA/ARZ) TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -6) I'm rolling the dice with Seattle in this one, even though the road team is at a big disadvantage in these Thursday night games. Key here is the Seahawks have a strong track record in these Thursday games under head coach Pete Carroll, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot. Seattle has also been a great team to back when coming off a loss, as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when coming off defeat. At the same time, I just don’t trust this Arizona team at all right now. Getting a road win over the 49ers is nothing to get excited about, as San Francisco hasn’t won a game all season. The biggest concern with the Cardinals being the loss of starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who suffered a season-ending injury in their previous game against the Rams, which they lost 0-33. Drew Stanton went just 5 of 14 in relief of Palmer against LA. While he threw for 200 yards against the 49ers, he completed just 50% of his attempts. The biggest thing that stands out to me in that game against San Francisco, is the offense leaned heavily on Adrian Peterson, who carried it 37 times for 159 yards. That’s great, but you have to wonder just how much AP will have left in the tank on a short week of rest. At the same time, they will be going up against a much better defense in Seattle, who is giving up just 18.6 ppg and will load up the box to try and force Stanton to beat them with his arm. I also think this Arizona defense could be in for a long day, as they have not fared well against the better teams they have faced. In fact, they have allowed a combined 38 points in 3 games against the 49ers (twice) and Colts. In every other game they have allowed at least 28 points, giving up 30 or more 5 different times. It’s no secret that Seattle isn’t as good on the road as they are at home, but at the same time the Cardinals are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games. Arizona is also a mere 1-6 in their last 7 off a SU win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing less than 15 points. Give me the Seahawks -6! |
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11-06-17 | Lions -2 v. Packers | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
40* LIONS/PACKERS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -2) I'll take the bait here with Detroit, as I'm just not buying the Packers being much of a threat the rest of the way without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. I don't think there's any QB in the league that means more to their team than Rodgers. The offense only managed 227 yards in the game against the Vikings, where Rodgers suffered that season-ending injury in the 1st quarter. They then totaled just 260 yards in their next game at home against the Saints, where they were outgunned by 225 yards. In those two games, backup Brett Hundley completed just 51.7% of his attempts with 1 TD to 4 interceptions. Green Bay has no choice but to rely on their rushing attack and Detroit knows that. It also plays into the strength of the Lions defense, which ranks 6th in the league, giving up just 91.6 ypg on the ground (have only allowed more than 90 yards twice this season). I'll take my chances with Stafford and the Lions offense doing enough to win here by a field goal. Give me the Lions -2! |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bucs +7) I'll take Tampa Bay catching a touchdown in this one, as I think we are getting a great price to back the Buccaneers here, due to their recent struggles and the Saints coming in having won and covered each of their last 5. I know the records say different, but I just don’t think there’s as big of a gap in talent here as the line would suggest. Keep in mind that Tampa was only a 3-point dog in last year’s visit to the Superdome. As bad as Tampa Bay was on offense last week against the Panthers, I like their chances of having success on that side of the ball against the Saints. While New Orleans has been playing better defense of late, a big reason for that is who they have played. During their 5-game winning streak they have faced the Panthers, Dolphins, Bears and Packers without Aaron Rodgers. The lone decent offense they faced during this stretch was the Lions and they gave up 38 points to Detroit. It’s also worth noting that prior to last week’s game, Tampa had scored 30+ in each of their previous two games. There’s also encouraging news regarding Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston, who ailing right shoulder has certainly played a role in the teams struggles. He was on the field practicing Wednesday, which is something he wasn’t able to do the past two weeks. Something to keep in mind with the Saints and their high-powered offense is they just lost starting right guard Larry Warford. New Orleans is already down starting right tackle Zach Streif. Injuries up front can really derail an offense and I that can only help the Bucs defense keep Brees and company in check. Tampa Bay is an encouraging 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 and the Saints are a dismal 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games when they come in having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. The Bucs are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Bucs +7! |
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11-05-17 | Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) Denver’s defense has been playing at an elite level all season and if not for the poor play they have got out of the quarterback position, they would likely have one of the best records in the league. The Broncos lead the league in total defense, giving up just 261 yards/game. Carolina is the only team that’s even close to them, as the Panthers are allowing 264 ypg. The next best is the Vikings at 282.1 ypg. I believe they are more than capable of shutting down Carson Wentz and this high-powered Eagles offense. I believe the loss of star left tackle Jason Peters is going to play a big role in this game, as it leaves Philadelphia short-handed against arguably the best pass rusher in the league in Von Miller. At the same time, I think it’s going to be equally as hard on the Broncos offense to put points on the board. Denver has benched starting quarterback Trevor Siemian and will be replacing him with Brock Osweiler. The Broncos believe that we will see a different Osweiler than in previous seasons, but I’m not buying it, especially against the Eagles. A big reason for Siemian’s struggles is he’s had no time to throw the ball and that struggling offense line is going to have their hands full against one of the best front sevens in the league. UNDER is an impressive 9-1 in the Broncos last 10 games against a team from the NFC and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing their previous game on the road. UNDER is also 40-18 in the Eagles last 58 games after scoring 30 or more in their previous contest. Give me the UNDER 42! |
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11-05-17 | Rams -4 v. Giants | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -4) I think you have to lay the points here with the Rams on the road, as I just don’t know how you trust this Giants team right now. I know New York hasn’t even played half of their schedule, but there’s just not a lot to play for and clearly that’s the thought process of some of the players. Top corner Janoris Jenkins has been suspended due to failing to show on time following the time off given during the bye week. It would be one thing if the Giants were in a division that was up for grabs and had all their key pieces on the field, but neither of those things is the case. New York has zero chance of winning the NFC East with the Eagles sitting on top the division at 7-1. Add in the loss of star wide out Odell Beckham Jr, among several other key injuries on offense and I just don’t see how the players can convince themselves that there’s something to play for. The Rams on the other hand are a team on the rise and haven’t enjoyed enough success in the past to let their hot start get to their heads. This team is trying to accomplish something special. The can only imagine how much different the attitude and level of focus has been in LA’s locker room compared to New York’s. On top of all that, the Rams are without a doubt the better team in this matchup. The offense has transformed into one of the best in the league under McVay. LA is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 30.3 ppg and 9th in total offense at 360 ypg. Another promising sign with this team is the defense is starting to catch up to the offense. It wasn’t pretty early on under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but LA has allowed just 33 points over their last 3 games combined. They should have no problem shutting down an anemic Giants offense. You also have to like how the Rams have already proven the ability to win on the road. All 4 wins during their current 4-1 stretch have come away from home. I think LA has no problem winning here by at least a touchdown and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they ran away with this thing early. Give me the Rams -4! |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Jets +3.5) Both of these teams have been better than I think anyone expected coming into the season. I just think Buffalo is getting a little too much respect here off their blowout win over the Raiders and the fact that they already beat these Jets by more than a touchdown earlier this season. I also don’t think the Bills are as good as advertised. Buffalo has been outgained in each of their last 6 games and when you look at their resume to this point they have a lot of wins over teams who are struggling in 2017, such as the Broncos, Falcons, Bucs and Raiders. Another big key here is the huge advantage the home teams have in these Thursday games, especially this deep into the season. Just look at last week when the Ravens came out of nowhere to lay a beating on the Dolphins 40-0. Keep in mind that Miami came into that game having won 3 straight, while the Ravens were a mere 1-4 over their last 5 games. Give me the Jets +3.5! |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -7) My money is on KC at home on Monday Night Football against the Broncos. This might seem like a big number for a division game, but I think this is an ideal spot to back the Chiefs. Not only does this feel like a must-win for Kansas City off 2 straight losses, but they got a big edge with a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday in Week 7. Any time you give Andy Reid extra time to prepare for an opponent, it typically ends bad for the other side. Note their win over the Eagles, where they led by 14 late in that game was after they played on Thursday the previous week. I know the Chiefs lost to Oakland in their last game, but they have dominated the AFC West and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the division. Give me Kansas City -7! |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -3 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
50* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3) I just don't trust this Lions team against the Steelers, who might be the best team in the AFC. We pay so much attention to Pittsburgh's "Triple B's" on offense, but I've been really impressed with the defense. If you take away the two interceptions returned for a TD and a garbage TD in the final minutes in their 9-30 loss to the Jaguars, the Steelers defense would be working on 4 straight games where they haven't allowed more than 14 points. Note that Jaguars game is the only one all season where they gave up more than 20-points in regulation. I expect the defense to show up in prime time game tonight and we get more than enough from Big Ben and the Steelers offense to secure the win and cover. Give me Pittsburgh -3! |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
100* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Cowboys -1.5) The fact that this is a division rivalry is keeping this line lower than it should be and creating great value here on the Cowboys. Dallas looked like a different team coming out of their bye with a 40-10 blowout win over at San Francisco. I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish. Not only are the Redskins playing on a short week after their game against the Eagles on MNF, but they are decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. Washington will be without the two most important starters on the o-line, as left tackle Trent Williams and center Spencer Long are both out. They could be without two more starters, as right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Morgan Moses are both questionable. While the Redskins will get back Josh Norman on defense, they lost linebacker Mason Foster and recently lost stud rookie defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys defense should be able to keep Washington in check, while their offensive line wears down a tired and depleted Redskins defense. Give me Dallas -1.5! |
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10-29-17 | Texans +7 v. Seahawks | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Texans +7) I'll gladly take a touchdown with the Texans on Sunday against the Seahawks. The fact that Seattle comes in having won 3 straight and the perceived home field advantage, has them overvalued in my mind. Two of those wins came against the Giants and Colts and the other was a victory over the Rams they had no business winning. The only other win is against the 49ers. Houston is playing with all kinds of confidence behind rookie QB Deshaun Watson and he's guided the Texans offense to 33 or more points in 4 straight games. It probably won't be that easy against the Seahawks, but I think Houston has the easier time moving the ball. The Texans are coming off a bye and have the talent up front to overpower a weak Seahawks offensive line. Give me Houston +7! |
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10-29-17 | 49ers +13 v. Eagles | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (49ers +13) This feels like a good spot to jump off the Eagles bandwagon. That public was all over the Eagles in their blowout win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football and will be quick to back them here against a 49ers team they love to fade. I think this will be a difficult spot for Philadelphia to show up with their “A” game. They hear what everyone is saying about them and probably feel like the 49ers are no match for them. That’s when you not only let a team stick around, but lose outright.Let’s also not discount the fact that the Eagles are playing on a short week of rest after their game on Monday Night Football and their first full game without the services of star left tackle Jason Peters. That’s a massive blow, as elite left tackles are hard to come by and chances are the offense won’t be the same from here on out. Give me the 49ers +13! |
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10-29-17 | Colts v. Bengals -10.5 | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -10.5) The Colts are a complete mess right now and have been atrocious on the road. Indy has played 3 games away from home and all 3 have coming by at least 14 points. Last week they got shutout at home 27-0 by the Jaguars, as Brissett was sacked 10-times. This Bengals defense has been playing well all season. They come in 5th in the league in total defense, giving up just 289 ypg. I know the Bengals offense has struggled, but the Colts are giving up 31.7 ppg on the season and 42.7 ppg when on the road. Sitting at 2-4 this is not a game the Bengals can afford to look past and I expect them to lay it on the Colts in one of the more lopsided finals from Sunday. Give me Cincinnati -10.5! |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/RAVENS BOOKIE ATS ANNIHILATOR (Ravens -3) I think the perception here is that the Dolphins are better off with Moore as their starter, because of the horrible rep that Cutler gets. If that was the case, Miami wouldn’t have begged Cutler to come out of retirement and made Moore the starter for Week 1. I’m not saying Moore can’t hold the fort down while Cutler is out, I just don’t think the line has been adjusted enough for the injury. I know the Ravens defense hasn’t been playing well, but I really like this spot for Baltimore’s stop unit. Their biggest problem has been stopping the run. After allowing 100+ to the Vikings they are now dead last in the NFL, giving up 145.3 ypg. They did get back a big part of their run defense in defensive tackle Brandon Williams and I don’t see this unit continuing to play as poorly as they have. It should be able to hold it's own against a Miami offense that is 29th in rushing at just 81.7 ypg. If the Dolphins can’t get the running game going, this could be a long game for an offense that is also just 30th in passing. For as much flack as the Ravens offense gets for it’s pedestrian numbers, they are averaging more yards/game than Miami. When you factor in home field advantage, which is absolutely huge in these Thursday night games, and the fact that this feels like a must-win game for the Ravens, I think this is as good a spot as you will find to back Baltimore. As the head coach of the Ravens, John Harbaugh and his team have gone an impressive 15-4 ATS after a stretch where they failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 and they fall in that spot tonight. Give me Baltimore -3! |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5) The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5! |
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10-22-17 | Bengals +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals +5.5) For as well as the Steelers played against the Chiefs last week, there’s reason to be concerned that they only won by 6-points. Had it not been for what should have been an interception bouncing off a Chief player and into the hands of Antonio Brown, which he ran in for a TD, they actually might have lost that game. While Le’Veon Bell was fantastic with 179 yards on 32 attempts, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look great and hasn’t really played well in 2017. I think the Steelers offense is in for a long day here against a stingy Cincinnati defense. The Bengals come in ranked 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 262.8 ypg. They also have the 2nd best scoring defense, allowing only 16.6 ppg. The run defense has been exceptional the past few weeks, which also coincided with return of star linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who missed the first 3 games with a suspension. Cincinnati has allowed just 63.7 ypg in their last 3, holding the Bills strong rushing attack to just 82 yards in their last game. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Bell, but I think he has a hard time getting to 100 yards unless he breaks a big run. It’s not just the defense that has come alive for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense has looked so much better since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. Under Labor the Bengals are averaging 25.0 ppg and 346.3 ypg. Note they scored a combined 9 points and averaged just 258 yards/game under Zampese. The other big key here is that Cincinnati is coming off a bye, which I believe should have this spread a lot closer to a field goal than a touchdown. The thing is, even though the Bengals are clearly on the rise, Pittsburgh is such a public team the books are going to take advantage of that an inflate the line. Give me the Bengals +5.5! |
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 38 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Dolphins -3) It’s not easy to beat the same team in your division twice in the same year. So while the Jets won by 14 at home over Miami in Week 3, I think this turns into a blowout the other way. I’m still not buying into the Jets being as good as their 3-3 record would indicate. Outside of their win over the Dolphins at home, they beat the Browns on the road and snuck out an overtime win against the Jaguars at home. Sure they played New England tough, but that was at home. Outside of 3-point win at Cleveland, the road hasn’t been kind to New York, which lost by 9 at Buffalo in Week 1 and by 25 at Oakland in Week 2. Adding to this, is the fact that the Jets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record. I also think this is a big letdown spot for the Jets. They put everything they had into beating New England, who they despise. A loss that has to be tough to swallow given they were up 14-0, outgained the Patriots 408-375 and turned it over 3 times. Those are the kind of defeats that can be difficult to bounce back from, especially when going up against a team they beat without much problem just a few weeks ago. The Miami offense hasn’t been very good to start the season, but that was to be expected after they just picked Jay Cutler up off the straight and made him their starter in the middle of training camp. I think they may have found something in the 2nd half of last week’s game against the Falcons, where they scored on all 4 possessions to overcome a 17-point halftime deficit. They should come out with a ton of confidence on that side of the ball this week. The Jets are a miserable 0-6 ATS under head coach Todd Bowles in road games after playing their previous game against a division opponent and have lost these games by an average of 15.3 points. On the flip side of this, the Dolphins are a strong 18-7 ATS in their last 25 when revenging a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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10-22-17 | Titans v. Browns +6 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Browns +6) As difficult as it might be to stomach the Browns right now, I think there's enough value here to warrant a play on Cleveland. I don't think this team is going to go 0-16 like everyone thinks and the Titans haven't exactly played up to their potential this season. It's a spot they have been horrific against the number under Mularky. They are 3-11 ATS under him against teams with a losing record, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs an opponent that gives up 24+ ppg and 0-6 ATS after a contest in which they gained 400+ yards. Cleveland's defense isn't as bad as the numbers would suggest, as turnovers by the offense have really put them in some bad spots. They are actually allowing fewer yards than the Titans per game and are yielding just 3 yards/rush. Titans are a team that really relies on the running game, making this a good matchup. I also got a sneaky feeling we get a good game here out of rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who is getting another chance after he was bench thanks to the Kevin Hogan injury. Titans secondary is a good one for him to attack, as they are allowing opposing teams roughly 35 yards more game than they average on the year. Give me the Browns +6 and don't hate a little side action on the money line! |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 46 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46! |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48) I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers. The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season. Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48! |
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10-15-17 | Chargers v. Raiders -4 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
50* NFL AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Raiders -4) I absolutely love this spot for the Raiders at home against division rival Chargers. All the hype around Oakland has took a big hit with their current 3-game losing streak, but they are getting back starting quarterback Derek Carr against a Chargers team they have beat 4 straight times. Los Angeles was able to avoid an 0-5 start by beating another winless team in the Giants in Week 5, but were fortunate to do so, as they trailed 17-22 going in the 4th quarter. I know the Chargers have been competitive despite the 1-4 record, but this is a tough spot playing on the road for a second straight week against a desperate Raiders team that really can't afford to lose this game with how well the Chiefs and Broncos are playing in their division. I think this is the week that Marshawn Lynch and that Raiders running game gets going, as they go up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last vs the run, allowing 161.2 ypg. That's only going to make it that much easier on Carr in his first game back from injury. This San Diego offense is also nothing special and continue to struggle to run the ball. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the AFC. Give me the Raiders -4! |
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10-15-17 | Bucs -1 v. Cardinals | 33-38 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Bucs -1) I really like this Bucs team and not the least bit concerned with their poor showing at home against the Patriots in Week 5. New England's game plan was top notch on a short week, as Belichick and his staff took full advantage of a Tampa Bay offense that doesn't change things up from week to week. I also think Winston and the rest of the team put way too much pressure on themselves in that game. I expect a much better showing here from Tampa Bay against a struggling Arizona team that I think is still getting too much respect for what they have done in the past. The Cardinals two wins this season are against the Colts and 49ers and they were lucky to win both, as both victories came in overtime. All 3 of their losses have come by double-digits and i just don't see it getting better, even with the recent trade for AP, who isn't expected to play this week. Another key here is the Bucs have had some extra time to not only prepare for this game, but also get healthy after playing on Thursday last week. That's a big edge that often gets overlooked. I think it's more than enough for Tampa Bay to get the win on the road. Cardinals are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-4 ATS off a loss by more than 14 points. Give me the Bucs -1! |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins -10 | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins -10) I don’t love laying this many points in the NFL, but I just feel the situation here is too good to pass up. On one side you have a Washington team that is returning from their bye in a game they has to feel like a must win to keep pace in the NFC East. Especially with road games against the Eagles and Seahawks sandwiched around a home game against the Cowboys in their next three. As for the 49ers, they have to be running on fumes right now. San Francisco is playing their 3rd straight road game and with each trip they have had to go further east, starting with Arizona, before going to Indy and now Washington. It doesn’t come up often, but rarely do teams play well in that 3rd game of a 3-game trip. Especially if it’s a poor team like the 49ers, who are clearly in rebuilding mode. The fact that the Redskins weren’t expected to do much coming into the year and they are sitting at just 2-2, I don’t think the public will be running to back them here. I personally have really been impressed with this team. Their two losses are against arguably the two teams playing the best football early on in the Chiefs and Eagles. While they lost both by more than a touchdown, the final score doesn’t do justice to how well they played. In both games they fumbled and let the defense return it for a TD in the final two minutes. The Washington defense has really caught my eye and they rank in the top half of the league against both the run (10th, 88.8 ypg) and pass (15th, 222.5 ypg). That unit should be able to slow down a weak 49ers offense that has scored 15 or less in 3 of their 5 games. San Francisco’s offense ranks 20th in both rushing and passing. This is also not a good 49ers defense. San Francisco ranks in the bottom half of the league against both the run (19th, 116.6 ypg) and the pass (26th, 249.8 ypg). Keep in mind the schedule has been favorable to this point. The best offense they have faced is the Rams and they were torched for 41 points. Redskins rank 8th in total offense and should be well-prepared for what the 49ers like to do. Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 ATS after their last 5 games following a game where they didn’t cover. Give me the Redskins -10! |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Browns +10) I just feel the books have inflated this line too much as the public wants nothing to do with the winless Browns and are drawn to rookie sensation Deshaun Watson. I just think this is too many points for Houston to be laying after losing two of their best defensive players in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Keep in mind they were already without starting inside linebacker Brian Cushing and corner Kevin Johnson. They will also be missing starting safety Corey Moore for this game and linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and Benardrick McKinney are both banged up. What people don't realize is this Browns team is better than the 0-5 record would indicate. What's really hurt them is turnovers and the problem was starting rookie QB DeShone Kizer. He's been benched in favor of Kevin Hogan. While Hogan isn't the long-term solution, he played great in relief last week against the Jets and knows how to protect the football. Cleveland also has a very underrated defense that should only get better now that No. 1 pick Myles Garrett is a full go. The Browns rank 5th in the NFL, giving up just 305 ypg and have excelled against the run, allowing just 76.6 ypg. Watson and the Texans offense has benefited from going up against a couple of defense in the Pats and Chiefs that give up a ton of yards. KC comes in 27th in total defense (366 ypg) and NE is dead last (447.2 ypg). Not only do I like the Browns chances of keeping it close enough to cover, but I give them a decent shot to get their first win of the season. Give me Cleveland +10! |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
50* NFL AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Patriots -9) I would love to what the odds would have been that the Patriots and Jets would have the same record going into their Week 6 showdown. I believe it has New England showing some value and that’s hard to do when you are talking about a near double-digit road favorite against a division rival. I’ll be the first to say that I didn’t see the Jets winning 3-games all season, but I’m also not going to let a 3-game winning streak against the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns change my thought process on this team. I still believe the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league and wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t win another game. I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry. I just don’t see the Jets being able to generate enough offense to keep this close. I know the Patriots defense has been bad to start the year, but they were a lot better last time out against the Bucs. Holding a potent Tampa Bay offense to just 14 points. One of the reasons for New England’s poor start defensively is a schedule the has had them face Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. They finally catch a break here going up against Josh McCown, who has a mere 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Under his guidance the offense has scored 23 or less in all 5 games. As for the Jets defense and their strong numbers, they have faced Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles and DeShone Kizer/Kevin Hogan. Carr is the only one of those who you would consider an above-average QB and he went 23 of 28 for 230 yards and 3 scores in a 25-point blowout win. Even with the home crowd supporting them, I don’t see the Jets keeping the Patriots offense in check here. I also like the fact that the Patriots haven’t got off to a great start. Not that Belichick would let them look past any opponent, they should be 100% locked in for a division matchup. You also have to factor in the advantage Belichick and his staff have here with New England getting a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week. All signs point to a lopsided win and cover for the Patriots in this one. Give me New England -9! |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -3) Carson Wentz and the Eagles are getting all kinds of love right now and a lot of people are saying they are the best team in the NFC. I don’t think that’s going to sit well with Carolina, who I’m surprised isn’t getting more love given they are just two seasons removed from going 15-1 and playing in the Super Bowl. I was really high on Carolina coming into this season and expected them to return close to the form that had them playing on the final Sunday of the season two years ago. The offense didn’t start out great, but have found a nice rhythm the last two games, scoring 33 on the Patriots and 27 on the Lions. Newton has been a big reason for the uptick in production, throwing for 671 yards with 6 TDs to just 1 INT. In his previous 3 games he had only thrown for 566 yards with a mere 2 TDs and 4 INT. Keep in mind he came into the season at less than 100% recovering from offseason surgery on his throwing arm. For those that don’t remember, Carolina led the NFL in scoring at 31.3 ppg during that magical 2015 season. Not to take anything away from the Eagles and their strong start, but they come in having beat the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals over the last 3 weeks. Those three teams are a combined 3-12 on the year. Their best win coming at Washington in Week 1. I think this is a game where we see Wentz and the Eagles struggle on the road against one of the top tier teams in the league. Carolina’s defense is one of the best the NFL has to offer. The Panthers come in 6th against the run (79.8 ypg) and are 5th against the pass (194.2 ypg). This will be their first game against a team that ranks inside the Top 10 against both the run and the pass. Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 25-15 in their last 40 against a strong offensive team that is averaging 24+ points/game. Give me the Panthers -3! |