Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-27-24 | Clippers v. 76ers +6 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6 |
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03-27-24 | UNLV +5.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 68-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NIT Semi-Final Wednesday UNLV Runnin' Rebels +5.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 7 ET - Certainly I respect the Pirates and, particularly at home, but this Rebels team is also strong and well-coached too - just like Seton Hall. What I particularly like about UNLV here is that they are on a 12-3 SU and 2 of the 3 losses were by just 3 points. Also, the 3 games included two losses to Nevada (NCAA Tourney team) and a loss to San Diego State (still alive in NCAA Tourney and facing UConn next). The point is that this Rebels team has been rock solid and is offering excellent underdog line value here. Remember they were 8-3 on the road this season. As solid as Seton Hall is, it took OT for them to get past an underachieving St Joseph's team in round one of this tourney. Also, the Pirates beat North Texas by 14 but the Mean Green had 5 more shots from the field. North Texas simply had an off shooting night. Give some credit to the Pirates defense of course but Seton Hall now faces a much tougher challenge here. Grab the underdog line value with a team that has played very well on the road this season. I like fading line moves too as this one has been moving toward the Pirates since the line came out. UNLV +5.5 |
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03-26-24 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 @ Indiana State Sycamores @ 9 ET - Look at the two NIT match-ups today and you will notice something very interesting about the difference in the lines on the two games. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. When people see something off and jump all over it you will often find me, if I am on the game, absolutely on the other side of the masses. So, in this case, notice that Ohio State is hosting Georgia and the Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 in that one and have the better overall record plus a home record of 15-4 facing a Bulldogs team with a road record of 5-6. Now look at this game. Indiana State has a much better overall record than Cincinnati plus the Sycamores are 15-1 at home while the Bearcats are 4-7 on the road and yet this line opened up at 2.5 in most shops. Sure enough Indiana State is up to a 3.5 point favorite in this one and, for me, it is go time on this one! Whey in the world would the Buckeyes be 8.5 point favorites over Georgia today but the Sycamores opened up as only a 2.5 favorite over the Bearcats when you consider the home / road dominating variances involved in each match-up? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. Cincy is the play here. Keep in mind, the Bearcats played in the ultra tough Big 12 this season and they are 15-2 in non-conference games with the only two losses to Xavier and Dayton. The Musketeers also made the NIT and the Flyers made the NCAA Tourney. Cincy is a tough team battle-tested and the Sycamores are certainly solid but this line is set "funny" for a reason and I love fading the masses. Road team in an upset is my prediction BUT will grab the value of the points just in case. CINCINNATI +3.5 |
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03-26-24 | Thunder -120 v. Pelicans | Top | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday: Oklahoma City Thunder -2 or Pick'em -120 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The road team has won both match-ups this season and the set up here is perfect. Oklahoma City is off a loss but had won 14 of 17 games prior to this. The Thunder are 4-0 SU last 4 times when off a loss. Also the road team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings between teams. The Pelicans are off B2B wins and have won 5 of 6 games. However, the last 4 wins have come against 3 bad teams plus a Miami team dealing with injury issues as the Heat had lost 6 of 9 prior to winning most recent game. You are seeing the Thunder favored on the road here as a result of all of the above so don't let the line fool you. We test the double perfect trends here as the best way to play this one is on the money line by laying a little extra juice instead of laying -110 but needing to win by 3 to cash your ticket. Money line is the best option here. OKLAHOMA CITY -120 or -125 |
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03-25-24 | 76ers +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 |
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03-25-24 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Tarleton State -5 | Top | 73-72 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
CIT Semi-Final: Monday Tarleton State Texans -5 vs IPFW Mastodons @ 7 ET - This is the match-up I wanted and so I am getting involved in this one with a best bet. IPFW was "okay" this season but they still finished in the bottom half of the Horizon League as they finished 7th in the 11-team league. The Mastodons are decently offensively but how well will their shots fall on the road here? Also, IPFW is not good defensively. The Texans, therefore, hold a big defensive edge in addition to also having the home court edge. Also, Tarleton State finished 2nd in the 11-team WAC and the team they finished behind was Grand Canyon. Yes, that same Grand Canyon team that just beat St Mary's in the NCAA Tourney plus would have also upset Alabama were it not for a horrific shooting effort including just 2 of 20 from three-point land! So the point is we have value here with Texans laying a very reasonable number at home in this one. They went 13-3 at home while IPFW went 9-7 on the road this season. Also, 9 of the 12 Mastodons losses this season were by at least 6 points and this one will be too! TARLETON STATE -5 |
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03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State OVER 128.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday OVER 128.5 in San Diego State Aztecs vs Yale Bulldogs @ 9:40 ET - While I certainly respect the Aztecs defense, I also respect a Yale team that seemingly can hang tough with most anyone. Remember early in the season they faced Gonzaga when the Bulldogs were #11 in the country and faced Kansas when the Jayhawks were #2 in the country. Those games each totaled at least 135 points and the Bulldogs scored an average of 65.5 ppg in those 2 games. San Diego State is favored by 5.5 points at the time of this write-up. So that puts this game in the 71 to 66 range which is nearly double digits above the total if the Bulldogs perform as they have against other strong teams. In fact, they also scored 65 against a Vermont team that made the tourney and, of course, just scored 78 against a #4 seed Auburn in their upset of the Tigers. This is a confident Ivy League club that can hang tough in this game. At the same time however, with all the talk about the Aztecs D, this San Diego State team can score quite well also. When they faced ranked opponents in the regular season - Utah State twice and Gonzaga once - the Aztecs averaged 84 ppg and won all 3 games! Now they just scored 69 games in beating UAB to advance to face the Bulldogs. Also this is the type of match-up (expected to be a rather tight margin late) that often results in late fouling and quick threes at the other end. Essentially some "scramble points" if needed. However, I expect a solid winner here without the "scramble points" as this one is destined for at least the 130s based on the above. OVER 128.5 in San Diego State |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Grand Canyon Lopes +6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7:10 ET - It is unlikely that A & M tops Houston as a double digit dog today. That said, it would not surprise me if Tennessee is the last team standing from the SEC entering the Sweet 16. Yes, another upset win for Grand Canyon is not out of the question here but we will grab the points as added insurance just in case. The fact is that the SEC was over-rated this season and we have seen that play out time and time again in this tourney. Even though the Vols are still standing they are just 1-1 ATS in the tourney after barely sneaking by Texas last night. As for the Crimson Tide they had lost 4 of 6 games before knocking off Charleston to open up the tourney. Yes, they won by double digits but they allowed 96 points to a Coastal Athletic Association team! Conversely, Grand Canyon enters this game having won 6 straight and 30 of 34 this season. Though they come from a weaker conference, I like the fact the Lopes put up an average of 75 ppg in their 4 games versus respectable non-conference foes like San Francisco, South Carolina, San Diego State and now St Mary's to begin the tourney with an upset. Also, they allowed just 71 ppg in those 4 games and one has to have a little concern over Alabama's lack of D in their opening win! Yes, the Tide can score well but they have allowed an AVERAGE of 94 ppg last 11 games! There is nothing "average" about that and this Lopes team has proven they can compete with teams from stronger conferences. This goes to the wire and an outright upset would not shock me in the least! GRAND CANYON +6.5 |
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03-24-24 | Colorado +4 v. Marquette | Top | 77-81 | Push | 0 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday Colorado Buffaloes +4 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 12:10 ET - I am going to keep riding the Buffaloes. As I have stated in my recent write-ups, once they finally started winning road games their confidence sky-rocketed and they have carried that with them ever since they got on the late-season run following a much-needed road win. Colorado has never looked back and has now won 10 of 11 games. Now, of course, Marquette is a rock solid team. However, all the pressure is on them here as the #2 seed facing a #10 seed. Also, the Golden Eagles had lost 3 of 6 before the win over a #15 seed Western Kentucky team. It is certainly true those losses for Marquette were against top teams as it included #1 UConn and a ranked Creighton team as well. However, what I like about the Buffaloes is they have been so strong with shooting from all over the floor of late. They are playing with a ton of confidence and they are the stronger rebounding team. A big edge on the glass could also end up being the edge that decides this game. No points needed most likely but if the game is ultra tight late and swings the way of Marquette, the 4 points could come in handy. The Golden Eagles are known for being a solid shooting team but the Buffaloes are knocking down 3's nearly as well as any team in the country on the season. Also, Colorado is the better team at the free throw line too which can be a key in tight games when in tourney time like this especially. The points are quite generous considering all of the above. COLORADO +4 |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #794: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Creighton Bluejays -4.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:40 ET - As I mentioned in my pick on Oregon over South Carolina, the Ducks have a great head coach and they had a huge coaching advantage in that game. However, now they take on a Bluejays team that also has an excellent head coach. Both Dana Altman and Greg McDermott are veteran coaches with a helluva winning track record long-term. In fact, Altman used to coach at Creighton and was there for a long period from the mid-90s through 2010. So what does this match-up come down to? Well, there are big edges for Creighton in this one as they have a cohesive group of players that have multiple seasons of experience together. That pays off in tougher match-ups like this one. As for Oregon, they rely heavily on a trio of guys that include a freshman plus a senior that played his first 3 years at South Carolina. Now Couisnard is off the huge game versus his former team but again, he and Shelstad and Dante don't have quite the same level of cohesiveness that this Bluejays team has with their guys having all played together for multiple seasons. That creates a bond in big game situations that does make a big difference. I also like the rebounding edge going to Creighton in this match-up as well. The seeding for these tournaments is not easy and is often debated but the fact is they do, for the most part, a damn good job. That said, a #3 seed laying just 4.5 points to a #11 seed is quite a solid value. It is not a mistake as the Ducks are on everyone's radar right now after the Pac-12 Tourney run but, the point is, it has created value in the marketplace. Here we take advantage! CREIGHTON -4.5 |
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03-23-24 | Texas +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #791: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Texas Longhorns +6.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 8 ET - Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes was the head coach at Texas for many years from '98 to 2015! That adds extra intrigue to an already intriguing match-up. The pressure this match-up is truly on the Volunteers as they are they higher seed and are expected by most to advance to the Sweet 16 (at the very least) this season. I love fading pressure-filled favorites that might be over-valued! Why would the Vols be over-valued a bit? Well the SEC has had a rough go of it in the tourney already. Auburn and Florida lost yesterday after Kentucky was one of 3 SEC teams that were beaten Thursday. The Wildcats were one of the biggest upsets thus far and they joined South Carolina and Mississippi State in exiting the tourney on the first day of it! This is contrary to the Big 12 which still has Baylor and Kansas and Houston and Iowa State as well as this Texas team still alive in the Big Dance. So one must remember that most of the Vols games the past few months, of course, have been against SEC competition which may not be as tough as some thought! When you look back at Tennessee non-conference action it includes losses to Tourney teams like Purdue and Kansas and North Carolina. Granted those are great teams but, the point is, do the Volunteers (from an over-rated SEC) really deserve to be favored by this much over a solid Texas team? In my opinion, absolutely not! Keep in mind, coach Barnes has a long history of his teams underachieving in March Madness. Of course they beat an outclassed Saint Peter's team to open things up but the Longhorns beat a solid Colorado State team by a double digit margin and held them to just 44 points. Look for this one to go down to the wire making the points invaluable. TEXAS +6.5 |
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03-23-24 | Kings +140 v. Magic | Top | 109-107 | Win | 140 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Saturday: Sacramento Kings Money Line +140 @ Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - Great spot to back the Kings off a loss and no points needed either in terms of the system in play for this one. The Kings are a perfect 6-0 SU the last 6 times they were off a loss in which they scored less than 110 points. That trend is in play here after Sacramento lost 109 to 102 at Washington. A loss to a bad Wizards team is an attention-getter for the Kings and I am sure they will respond big here. Yes, Orlando is on a hot streak and has been playing well. However, prior to the win over the Pelicans Thursday, the last 11 Magic wins had come against bad teams like Detroit (2), Charlotte (2), Toronto (2), Brooklyn (2), Washington and Utah. The Jazz are 29-41 and the combined record of those 5 Eastern Conference teams (the 5 worst in the conference) is 90-259. Yes, 90 wins and 259 losses! Now the Magic host a Kings team that is angry off a loss plus is 40-29 this season. Big difference in level of opponent here and I look for an upset win for the road dog in this one. SACRAMENTO +140 |
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03-23-24 | Washington State +7 v. Iowa State | Top | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #799: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Washington State Cougars +6.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 6:10 ET - Lot of value with the points in this one. The Cougars are 25-9 SU this season. Washington State has seen 4 of last 5 losses come by 6 or less points. Since the calendar flipped the page to the year 2024, only one time have the Cougars lost by more than 6 points! As for Iowa State, they are a strong team from the tough Big 12. However, the Cyclones averaged 66.8 ppg last 9 games of the regular season including conference tourney. The Cougars averaged 74 ppg their last 8 games before losing to Colorado in a low-scoring grinder in the Pac-12 Tourney. The point is that Iowa State does have a solid defense but this Washington State offense has been consistent and they just do not get blown out in games. The Cougars defense is not that far behind that of Iowa State's and also the underdog holds a big edge in this one in the rebounding department. The Cougars are also 4-0 SU this season in games decided by 4 or less points so this team knows how to win tight games. I do think we could see an outright upset here but will grab the generous points just in case. WASHINGTON STATE +6.5 |
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03-22-24 | Grand Canyon v. St. Mary's OVER 131 | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
NCAA Friday OVER 131 in St Mary's Gaels vs Grand Canyon Lopes @ 10:05 ET - Grand Canyon has quite a resume this season even though they come from a weaker conference. The Lopes scoring numbers are no fluke. This team can run and gun. They only had one OT game this season and that one was 78-78 in regulation so, the point is, their scoring average has not been overly inflated by OT games and this team is averaging 80 points per game on the season! Now of course they are not expected to get to that range facing a tough St Mary's team that is sound defensively, to say the least. However, Grand Canyon should certainly score quite well here. This is what I was referring to when I mention their "resume" or "body of work" this season. Note that the Lopes put up 76 on San Francisco, 68 on South Carolina and 79 on San Diego State! They won 2 of those 3 games and the lone loss was by just 7 points. 2 of those 3 teams made the Big Dance and the other made the NIT after a very solid season. The point is that Grand Canyon is no weakling even though they come from one of the weakest conferences in college basketball. The fact is that the Lopes have proven they can score on solid teams too. The trouble for them is they will not be able to stop St Mary's here. The Gaels are a solid West Coast Conference team that only had one OT game this season and they averaged 74 ppg on the year. They also have been red hot with wins in 18 of last 19 games! The Gaels averaged 81.5 ppg in their last 8 wins. They are as hot as ever on the offensive end and Grand Canyon has enough scoring production up and down the lineup that they will remain competitive here. The spread on this game is only about 5 points which tells you the odds makers expect a tighter game but this Lopes team is not going to hang around because of their defense it will be because they have solid offensive production. Grand Canyon has scored at least 67 points in 32 of their 33 games this season. St Mary's favored by 5 for a reason and that would put this total in the 140 range. 72 to 67 for example. I just can not see the Gaels failing to get to the 70 mark here and feel this spread is a rather small one for a reason. This one goes down to the wire which also means plenty of opportunity for late fouling as well as jacking up threes. OVER 131 in St Mary's |
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03-22-24 | TCU -3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
NCAA Friday TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 vs Utah State Aggies @ 9:55 ET - The Mountain West teams are already falling in this tourney. Utah State is no slouch for sure but TCU played in the brutal Big 12 this season and this battle-tested Horned Frogs hold the edge in terms of strength of schedule the way I see it. Also, note that the Aggies went only 3-5 against the other MWC teams that won 24 or more games this season - Colorado State, San Diego State, New Mexico and Nevada. Just like Texas knocked off Colorado State yesterday, this is another spot where a solid Big 12 team is going to knock off a MWC foe. Keep in mind, Nevada also lost yesterday to the #3 team in the Atlantic Ten. I am just as sold on this MWC team being as strong as some contend it is. At the same time there is no questioning the Big 12 was a powerhouse conference this season made even stronger with the additions of Houston and Cincinnati this season. The Horned Frogs just got hammered by a great Houston team by 15 to get knocked out of the Big 12 Tourney. But including 3-0 this season and dating back to last season, TCU is 4-0 L4 times they have entered a game off loss by at least a dozen point margin. By the way, all 4 of those wins by at least a dozen points and the line here on this one is available at 3.5 at the time of this posting. Lay it! TCU -3.5 |
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03-22-24 | Pelicans +136 v. Heat | Top | 111-88 | Win | 136 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA New Orleans Pelicans +135 @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - So the Pelicans are in a B2B and have an injury issue with Brandon Ingram being out. However, the Heat have issues too with Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love both out plus Bam Adebayo is questionable. With New Orleans off a loss last night at Orlando, they will be fired up about bouncing back here. The Pelicans are a perfect 3-0 L3 times when off a loss. New Orleans is also a perfect 3-0 L3 times when they are on the road and coming off a loss. Overall, the Pelicans had won 16 of 21 games prior to the loss to the Magic last night. The Heat are off a win at Cleveland but had lost 5 of 7 games before that and the two victories were against a Pistons team that is one of the league's worst. The home team is just 1-5 in Miami's last 6 games and the Heat are coming home off a lengthy road trip. Oftentimes that first game back is the toughest and teams come out a bit flat. Miami is 12-13 against Western Conference teams this season. New Orleans was 16-8 this season against Eastern Conference teams prior to the loss last night. You have an East-West dichotomy here plus the Pelicans are 8 games over .500 in road games this season while the Heat are just 2 games over .500 in home games this season. You can see why we have so much value here with the money line road dog. Grab it! No points needed. NEW ORLEANS +135 |
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03-22-24 | Colorado +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Colorado Buffaloes +1.5 vs Florida Gators @ 4:30 ET - I have been riding the Buffaloes hot streak for awhile now and I will not stop now! We saw the SEC struggle yesterday as 3 teams already got knocked out including #3 Kentucky upset by a #14 seed! The only SEC winner yesterday was Tennessee and that was a #15 versus #2 mismatch. As for the Pac-12, they are rolling. Note that Utah also advanced in the NIT and here in the NCAA, Arizona and Washington State and Oregon all advanced. Colorado has won 9 of 10 games and the only loss was to the Ducks who have a great coach in Altman and know how to win at Tourney time. They showed that gain yesterday against South Carolina. So no shame in that one loss for the Buffaloes last 10 games and once this Buffs team started proving they can win away from home, their confidence level was boosted greatly. This team is truly starting to believe and is playing with a ton of confidence. That will lead the way again in this one and I look for Florida to struggle again on the defensive end. Yes, the Gators can put up big points but this Florida team has allowed at least 79 points in 10 of last 12 games. This is the time of year when defense really matters. I know the Gators offense is strong but their points against numbers leave a lot to be desired. As for the Buffaloes, they have allowed 58 points or less in 4 of last 5 games and that included solid foes like Boise State, Utah and Washington State. Both teams should score well here but in the end, this Colorado team certainly appears more capable of getting enough stops for the win. COLORADO +1.5 |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern +4 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 77-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Northwestern Wildcats +4 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 12:15 ET - These are two very good offenses but what I like about the Wildcats here is they actually play defense quite well for extended stretches while the Owls almost never do. Additionally we have 4 points to work with here too. I feel this is a fantastic value for grabbing Northwestern and the points. The Wildcats enter this one having won 6 of 10 games. In those 10 games they had one high-scoring loss to Iowa 87-80 (one outlier) but allowed an average of only 64 points in the other 9 games! Conversely, FAU is 5-3 L8 games and there was no outlier as they allowed 77 points in these 8 games and consistently allowed big points. In a win or go home game in the NCAA Tourney against two teams most experts view as equal, I am happy to grab the better defensive team and the 4 points! Also, the last two losses for Florida Atlantic were to a Memphis team that lost 8 of 15 games to wrap the season and also to a Temple team that went 5-13 in conference action this season. Northwestern's last 3 losses were to Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin! All 3 of those are Big Dance teams and the Hawkeyes and Spartans advance already with wins yesterday while the Badgers are favored to win today on Friday as well. All signs above are pointing to the fact that the Owls are over-valued here and the Wildcats are undervalued! I will gladly take the generous points here as added insurance though I am making this wager expecting an outright underdog upset win. NORTHWESTERN +4 |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 9:40 ET - Give credit where credit is due and NC State had a helluva run through the ACC Tourney. However, they were fortunate to force OT against a late-game mistake-prone Virginia team. Then they beat rival North Carolina despite the Tar Heels having 16 more shot attempts from the field in that game. Also, the Pack made 6 of 8 threes while UNC took 30 threes but made only 8 of them! Again, give the Wolfpack credit but the fact remains both the Cavaliers and Heels played a role in giving victories away in each game. The result is line value here. NC State is a little overvalued now and Texas Tech, knocked out the Big 12 Tourney by Houston (one of the nations best), is now undervalued as a result. The Red Raiders had a better regular season than NC State but the Wolfpack got hot in the Tourney. This is a new tourney now however! Though Texas Tech has a new coach this season in Grant McCasland, he has a 375-131 career coaching record and has had success every step of the way no matter where he has been and what level the program was. Junior College, Division II and now Division 1 for the past 8 seasons. McCasland is a winner. Kevin Keatts has been solid for NC State but Keatts is 0-4 SU all time in NCAA tournament action - twice with NC St and twice with UNC Wilmington. 11 of 14 Wolfpack SU losses have been by at least 4 points this season! 19 of 23 Red Raiders wins have been by 6 or more points this season. Lay it! TEXAS TECH -4.5 |
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03-21-24 | Pelicans v. Magic +120 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 120 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Orlando Magic +120 vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:10 ET - The Pelicans are a short road favorite here and I understand the line but this has opened up a great home dog opportunity I will not pass up. Orlando was a .500 team in late January! They have since gone 17-5! Also, the Magic have won 7 of last 8 home games. As for the Pelicans, I have plenty of respect for them and they have been hot also. However, New Orleans - with very few exceptions - has struggled on the road in most match-ups when facing winning and healthy teams. Orlando is a winning team and is healthy right now and they are playing well. Pelicans have road losses to the Mavericks, Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, Lakers and Pacers since the calendar flipped the page to 2024. How do the Magic compare to the blended home records of those teams? Well Orlando has 24 home wins this season and those 6 teams have an average of 25.5 home wins this season. You see my point? The Magic at home and healthy are right within range of those teams that the Pelicans have losses to the last couple months when traveling. I am grabbing the home dog value here. OLRANDO +120 |
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03-21-24 | Colorado State v. Texas -2 | Top | 44-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -2 vs Colorado State Rams @ 6:50 ET - For whatever reason, Virginia was not ready when they faced Colorado State. It was an embarrassment and the Cavaliers offense was pathetic and they missed the last 15 field goal attempts they took in the first half of that game. That was a 1st half in which they ended up scoring just 14 points. That is an embarrassment and while some credit goes to the Rams, the ugly margin of that game had a lot to do with a Cavs team that was ill-prepared. That is not happening again here. Now Colorado State faces a Longhorns team that will be ready and that plays in one of the toughest conferences in the land. The Big 12 has 6 Top 25 teams and the MWC has 2. The Mountain West is a solid conference but this goes to show how the markets can sometimes get a big misaligned on a game and that is the situation we have here in my opinion. The Longhorns off a tough tight loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Tourney and UT is 9-2 SU this season when they are off a loss. As for Colorado State, they just beat a Cavaliers team that gave an embarrassing effort. Prior to that they did have a nice win over a solid Nevada team but went 3-4 in their other 7 games since the 21st of February. Those 3 wins were against 3 of the bottom-feeders in MWC - Wyoming, San Jose State and Air Force. Those 3 teams went a combined 12-42 in the MWC this season. The Rams are a solid team...but they are not as strong as the Longhorns! This is a HUGE line VALUE! Lay the bargain number here! TEXAS -2 |
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03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday: Oregon Ducks +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110 vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 4 ET - Take a look at the other 11 vs 6 match-ups on the card today. The 6 seed is favored solidly in each one with Texas Tech -5 and BYU -9.5 so the odds makers must be crazy here with this line near a pick'em, right? Of course not! This game is priced atypical to an 11 seed vs 6 seed match-up with good reason. For starters, the only loss that red hot Colorado has in last 10 games was to this Oregon team in the Pac-12 Championship. That is the same Buffaloes team that just knocked off a solid Boise State last night in the First Four to advance. I know South Carolina just got embarrassed by Auburn in the SEC Tourney and would like to respond here. However, the Gamecocks also got drilled by Auburn in the regular season plus lost AT HOME to Tennessee in the regular season plus got embarrassed at Alabama too. Those are 3 of the best teams in the SEC so against strong teams, South Carolina has had some major slip-ups with 3 losses ALL by 27 or more points! That is the sign of a soft team when you can get beat that bad. I am hearing the talk that now SC is playing with a chip on their shoulder here. I don't care. They are playing a tough Ducks team and a chip on your shoulder is not what wins games. This is the first time the Gamecocks have been in the tourney since 2017. Oregon did lose both regular season games with Arizona this season but then knocked them out in the Conference Tourney. Also, same thing with how their season against Colorado went. They also split with Washington State and Utah which are the other 20+ win teams from the Pac-12. The Ducks have had good post-season success in terms of advancing whether NCAA or NIT. Also if you had to pick a coach for your team in College Hoops would you rather have Dana Altman (27 straight winning seasons!) or Lamont Paris (3 ugly seasons in 6 in his career)? Altman is one of the winningest active coaches in NCAA basketball and this is a mismatch in the coaching department in my opinion and yes the Ducks have the talent on the floor to match South Carolina. Don't let this line fool you! OREGON +1.5 -120/-125 or Pick'em -110 |
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03-21-24 | Akron +12.5 v. Creighton | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #739: NCAA Thursday Akron Zips +12.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 1:30 ET - Akron undervalued here and Creighton overpriced in my opinion. The Zips come from a weaker conference and do have 10 losses on the season. However, this is a solid team defensively and I expect the Bluejays to struggle to truly pull away in this game as a result. Note that Akron had only two blowout losses in their 10 defeats this season. The other 8 losses were all by a single digit margin and, in fact, by an average margin of just 3.6 points per game! Creighton, of course, is the stronger team and from the better conference. However, another key with the Bluejays year in and year out is they tend to shoot much better at home. Of course this is a neutral site game and note that Creighton blew away the weakling Hoyas and Blue Demons at Georgetown and DePaul, respectively but look at their other last 10 games away from home. The Jays went just 4-6 SU in those 10 games and also 3 of the 4 wins were by an average margin of just 4 points! This game is going to be a lot closer than you might be expect for a 14 seed vs 3 seed match-up! Groce is a solid head coach and was at Illinois in the Big Ten before coming to Akron. He has already enjoyed great success with the Zips. They were also in the Big Dance two years ago as a 13 seed and so they faced a 4 seed. They lost that game by just 4 points to a UCLA team that went on to the Sweet 16. I just can not envision a blowout here and am confidently grabbing the big points in this one. AKRON +12.5 |
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03-20-24 | 76ers +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - If you look at the board tonight there are 8 games and only 3 of them are match-ups in which both of the teams have a winning record. The Heat / Cavs appears to be an even match-up and Cleveland is favored by about their home court edge. Makes sense. The Celtics are a decent sized favorite over the Bucks but Boston is an insane 31-3 at home this season so that line makes sense as well. This Philly / Phoenix game is the outlier in my opinion. The Suns just have not been playing well enough to justify this large of a line. The Sixers, even while dealing with injuries, remain very scrappy and they have made some changes in their lineup/playing rotation of late that are already starting to pay dividends. That said, the 8.5 points here appears to be on the high side. The Suns have won just 6 of 13 games and the average margin of victory in the 6 wins, not including OT points, was just 6.5 points. Phoenix just has NOT been blowing teams away of late. The Sixers are just 5-5 L10 games but 4 of the 5 losses by a single digit margin! Don't be surprised when this one goes down to the wire. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 |
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03-20-24 | Colorado -2.5 v. Boise State | Top | 60-53 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #703: NCAA First Four Colorado Buffaloes -2.5 vs Boise State Broncos @ 9:10 ET - The Mountain West is solid but the Pac-12 is even tougher. I have plenty of respect for the Broncos but the Buffaloes really seemed to turn their season a dime when they finally figured out how to win away from home. Once they did that their confidence level exploded and they are not a different team. Yes they bowed out of the conference tourney when they lost to Oregon but the Ducks are a strong team. As solid as Boise State is, they lost all 3 HOME games against the other 3 teams that finished along with them in the top 4 of the MWC. The point is, if you can't win at home against the best teams in your conference, how can you expected to win in a neutral site game against an equally strong (if not stronger) Pac-12 team playing its best basketball of the season? Note that the Buffaloes won 3 of the 4 home games against the other 20+ win teams in their conference. The Buffs had won 8 straight games before the Ducks beat them by 7 in the Pac-12 Tourney final. Note that Colorado lost the turnover battle 13 to 3 in that game and were outscored 23 to 0 in terms of points off turnovers! Given that it is amazing they only lost the game by 7. They will clean things up again for this one and when they play clean basketball, they have been tough to beat for many weeks now. They get this win and cover the small number. COLORADO -2.5 |
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03-20-24 | San Francisco +6 v. Cincinnati | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #715: NIT Tourney: Wednesday San Francisco Dons +6 @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 9 ET - These Bearcats started the season 12-2 but went 8-12 from then until now! The Dons have as many wins in just 12 games as the Cats had in those 20 games. Indeed, San Francisco is on an 8-4 run and the kicker is that one loss was to a 20-win Santa Clara team and the other 3 losses were against ranked teams - St Mary's and Gonzaga! This SF team is a solid shooting team that plays well on the defensive end. The Bearcats will be in a war here just to win this game let alone cover the spread. That said, I love the points here as Cincy's most recent wins included against a Kansas team that was without the two top scorers in the Big 12! Also, Cats won against Kansas State but were down in that game with just 10 seconds to go when they hit the game winner in the 1-point win. The other two wins in the past 4 weeks were against a West Virginia team that went 9-23 overall and 4-14 in Big 12 action. This Bearcats team is over-rated in this spot and the Dons having to travel to Cincinnati for this game is no big deal when they have had so much time off to prepare for this game! Grab the generous points. SAN FRANCISCO +6 |
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03-20-24 | Grambling State v. Montana State -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #702: NCAA First Four Montana State Bobcats -3.5 vs Grambling State Tigers @ 6:40 ET - This is essentially a play based on conference strength. The fact is that the SWAC that Grambling hails from is absolutely the worst conference in Division 1 basketball. The Big Sky is certainly not a big conference but it is a much stronger conference than the SWAC. That said, the fact the Bobcats have a much stronger offense than the Tigers plus the fact that they faced a tougher overall schedule plus the fact that Grambling is in the Big Dance for the first time ever...it all adds up to a solid play on the favorite in this one! We are getting some line value here because people see the Cats were just a .500 team in the regular season and finished only 5th in their conference. However, Grambling finished first in the worst conference in Division 1. Lay the small number here with confidence. MONTANA STATE -3.5 |
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03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 9 ET - Yes the Timberwolves have a cluster of injuries at the big man position. However, the last time these teams met Jokic had a solid game for the Nuggets and yet the Wolves still won the game by 22 points. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets mostly play a "small ball" lineup which is the same type of lineup Minny will be playing here because of injuries to their bigs. So, the point is that Jokic will again "get his" in this game but I don't see that translating to a huge road win here. Minny is tough at home and this is a key divisional battle and they will not just "lay down" here because they are without Towns and Gobert. In fact, you might even see a more feisty effort from the Wolves here as a result! Look for Minnesota to be aggressive here as it is the wounded dog that often bites the hardest. This is just too many points to give the Timberwolves when at home and hosting the defending champs and a division rival. Playing their first home game in two weeks, Minnesota is absolutely going to make the most of it here! They are getting as many as 7.5 points here as of very early game day morning! We'll take it! MINNESOTA (+) |
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03-19-24 | Colorado State v. Virginia +3 | Top | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #672: NCAA Tuesday Virginia Cavaliers (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 9:10 ET - Give me the 3 points here. Maybe I have a bit of the old "East Coast bias" but I have seen others that are unbiased do have the ACC as a significantly stronger conference than the Mountain West. Note that the only two teams that Virginia finished behind in the final ACC standings were North Carolina and Duke. Those are two teams rank in the top dozen teams in the nation. Also, the team that won the ACC Tourney (NC State) is a team Virginia should have beaten but inexplicably made a couple key mistakes late that allowed the Wolfpack to tie it up and force OT. It was a gut-wrenching loss but also the Cavs can't wait to get back on the floor to make up for that here. The fact NC State then went and upset North Carolina in much easier fashion after they should have lost outright to Virginia also says a lot. This Cavs team is very well coached and annually has one of the best defenses in the nation. Colorado State is certainly a solid team but they are over-rated here. The top teams in the MWC are only in the #20 to #25 positions in the nation. Also, the Rams finished tied for 6th in the MWC while the Cavaliers were 3rd in the ACC! The Cavaliers play ugly basketball so a lot of guys don't like them. However, this time of year, that ugly defensive style can play hell with opponents and I am grabbing the underdog line value here with an angry Cavs team that is still pissed from that inexcusable loss to NC State. They will not be denied here in my opinion but grab the points for added insurance. VIRGINIA (+) |
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03-19-24 | Boston College v. Providence -3 | Top | 62-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #676: NIT Tuesday Providence Friars (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes the Friars are expected to be without leading scorer Carter for this one but this line has fallen too low in my opinion. It is down to a -3 and, even without Carter, the Friars at home are stronger than these Eagles. Also, I feel Providence is one of a handful of teams that is out to prove the Big East was robbed in terms of only 3 Big East teams making the Big Dance. The Friars are hungry to prove they were one of the teams wronged and I expect a very strong performance here at home. Note that is what not that long ago that Boston College had just been obliterated by Pittsburgh and then sat at 15-14 on the season and just 6-12 in ACC games! I know the Eagles then won 4 straight, including 2 in the ACC tourney, before bowing out against Virginia. However, other than the impressive over Clemson, the other 3 wins were against a horrible Louisville team that finished 3-17 in ACC action and a Miami team that slumped badly and lost 10 straight games to the end the season. The point is the Eagles had a helluva great game against the Tigers but I am not sold on a team whose other recent wins were against bad teams considering they were also just 6-12 against conference opposition not too long ago. This Friars team had won 6 of 3 before a loss to Marquette in the Big East tourney and 3 of their last 4 losses were against the Golden Eagles and UConn - both of whom are in the Big Dance of course. Watch the Friars rise up here, even without Carter. PROVIDENCE (-) |
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03-19-24 | Wagner +3.5 v. Howard | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Rotation #669: NCAA Tuesday Wagner Seahawks (+) vs Howard Bison @ 6:40 ET - Give me the 3.5 points here. If you watch the talking heads speak about this game or read preview articles you will see many people quoted about Wagner having a 7-man rotation and being short-handed because they are down two key players. Guess what? They played nearly the entirety of the season without those two players. Those two players played a combined 12 games - so an average of 6 games out of 31 on the season. In other words, this is 100% a NON-factor here. Now it would be a factor later in the tourney but there is no "later in the tourney" for either one of these teams. Whether Wagner or Howard advances either one will get blasted by North Carolina Thursday. However, I do like Wagner to advance as they ride the positive momentum of their conference tourney run. Also, most rankings do give a slight edge to the NEC over the MEAC in terms of conference power rankings. I personally feel the edge is bigger. The NEC is a little more significantly stronger than the MEAC in my opinion. I am well aware that Wagner had a sub-par regular season but they had to beat the top 3 teams in their conference (36-12 combined NEC record!) to get here! As for Howard, they had a ridiculous 3-point shooting effort in beating top seeded Norfolk State in their conference tourney but had the added benefit of their other two games against teams with a combined 13-15 conf record and overall 26-38 record. If they had faced a tougher team after upsetting Norfolk State they would have likely lost. Wagner thinks they are invincible right now. That makes for a dangerous dog. The way these two teams are playing right now, Howard is absolutely no better than Wagner. Also, the Seahawks are allowing just 54 ppg last 4 games. The Bison allowing 71 ppg L4 games. The Hawks stay hot! WAGNER (+) |
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03-18-24 | Knicks +165 v. Warriors | Top | 119-112 | Win | 165 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Monday New York Knicks +165 @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - Revenge game for the Knicks as they just at home to the Warriors less than 3 weeks ago. New York has very quietly won 3 straight and 5 of 7 games! They also catch Golden State off a big win over the Lakers too. Prior to that victory the Warriors had lost 3 of 4 and their only win was against a horrible Spurs team - and they also lost to San Antonio in that stretch too! Also, GS actually has lost 3 of last 4 home games so I feel we have exceptional line value with getting the Knicks on the money line at a solid comeback price! New York has been playing great defense and has allowed an average of only 83 ppg last 5 games! Golden State has allowed 116.8 ppg last 5 games! HUGE difference. Now, of course, the Warriors are the better team offensively but we are getting to the time of year when teams win games with defense and I like the Knicks in a revenge spot and catching GS off a key divisional win. No points needed. Knicks win outright. NEW YORK KNICKS +165 |
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03-18-24 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers will take advantage of a Heat team dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Yes, Philly is still without Joel Embiid but he is back practicing with the team and spirts are up for the Sixers team right now as they know he'll be back sooner rather than the later. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the overall healthier club in this match-up plus they are at home. Note that Miami is only 4-5 L9 games and here is the kicker to that! One of the wins was against a slumping Jazz team that has lost 12 of 15 games. The other THREE WINS were against a Pistons team that is one of the worst in the league. Beating those teams and winning AT Philly are vastly different things! Even a wounded Sixers team is far superior to the Pistons and the current version of the Jazz. That said, the home team should win this in solid fashion as they take advantage a Heat team that is dealing with too many banged up guys right now. PHILADELPHIA -2 |
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03-17-24 | Nets +106 v. Spurs | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets +105 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET in Austin, TX - The Spurs are in Austin again tonight rather than home in San Antonio. They are trying to expand their fan base with this and have done it the last two years but it is not their true home and takes away some of the typical home court edge an NBA team would have. Overall San Antonio is one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets have also struggled but they are still a better team than the Spurs. One way to see this is that both team have struggled against winning teams as you would expect. But the Nets (15-11 SU) are much better than the Spurs (7-17 SU) when facing teams with a losing record. Look for Brooklyn to again take advantage of facing a lesser foe tonight. The Nets are off B2B losses but this followed wins in 5 of last 9 games. Conversely, San Antonio has not shown any true signs of life like that. The Spurs have just 4 wins in last 21 games. San Antonio is already thinking ahead to next season. The Nets are running short on time but Atlanta keeps losing so the Nets still have a shot at the #10 seed and a chance to at least get into the play-in portion of the NBA post-season. To stay alive however they must have games like this. As they've done frequently this season, they will take advantage of facing a lesser foe here. BROOKLYN +105 |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Illinois Illini -3 or -3.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - Badgers fought hard and won in OT versus the Boilermakers yesterday as they got the big upset win over Purdue. Their top 3 scorers in yesterday's win (71% of the points) played an average of 37 minutes as the game went to OT also. Now playing again today and having battled so hard to make it this far, this is the game where the juice runs out for Wisconsin. Their 3-point shooting was so hot but keeps cooling off game by game as their legs are starting to get tired. Purdue did not shoot as well as usual yesterday and also lost the turnover battle badly. Give some credit to the Badgers for sure but the Boilers caused their own demise as well. Don't look for Illinois to be so generous! This Illini team gets to the foul line well and Wisconsin had all kinds of foul trouble versus Purdue yesterday. Hats off to the Badgers for still being able to grind out the win but their big run ends here. The Illini create match-up problems with guys like Damask and Shannon just like they did in the recent regular season meeting. Getting this line in the -3 range is a great value. ILLINOIS -3 or -3.5 |
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03-17-24 | Temple +7.5 v. UAB | Top | 69-85 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Temple Owls +7.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:15 ET - These teams just met before the conference tourney started and Temple was embarrassed in Philly as the Blazers scored 100 points! UAB shot a ridiculous 61% from the field including 56% from 3-point land! Teams don't forget about home losses like that. The Owls have since won 5 straight games and just knocked off two of the top three teams in the conference as they beat Florida Atlantic and Charlotte. Temple underachieved in the regular season - to say the least - but they are truly battling hard now and have jelled as a team at the perfect time of year - mid-March! I am not saying they get the outright win here but I do expect them to have another very strong game and that should be good enough for at least the cover here! They have allowed just 62 ppg in their 4 games in this tourney so far. UAB has allowed 78 ppg in their last 8 games. The Blazers are the stronger overall team but the Owls are playing confident defensive-minded basketball right now and this game should go down to the wire. Grab the generous points and this one has upset potential as well. TEMPLE +7.5 |
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03-16-24 | Knicks +145 v. Kings | Top | 98-91 | Win | 145 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Saturday New York Knicks Money Line +145 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10:10 ET - Home court is nothing special for Sacramento. The Kings are off B2B home wins but this followed losing 9 of last 16 home games! In fact, Sacramento has not won more than 2 straight home games since mid-December! The Knicks are a live dog here! Their defense has been fantastic for an extended stretch now and so you have the defensive edge here with New York. Also, while Knicks are off a win over a bad Portland team, the Kings are off big wins over the Bucks and the division rival Lakers. Sacramento might be a little flat here the way I see it. The Knicks have allowed an average of just 81 points last 4 games. Another interesting thing here is New York is off B2B wins and they have been in this spot 6 times this season and 5 of the 6 times their streak extended to 3 games and many much more. Don't be surprised if this pattern continues and another win streak is building for the Knicks. NEW YORK +145 |
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03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #634: CBB Saturday North Carolina Tar Heels -9 vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET - Give the Wolfpack plenty of credit of course as a win is a win and they fought hard yesterday. However, it took some late mistakes from Virginia including a key turnover and then a bank-shot 3 at the buzzer to even force OT in their eventual win over the Cavaliers. I also expect the Wolfpack to be worn out here. This is going to be their 6th game in 8 days! Conversely, North Carolina is playing just its 3rd game in 7 days! Not only is this a huge rest edge for the Tar Heels, they are absolutely the superior team in all facets of the game. I do not often lay big points in spread sports but there are exceptions. In this case, the rest factor plus the talent factor are hugely in favor of UNC. Also, the Wolfpack went just 9-11 in ACC games this season while the Tar Heels went 17-3. While 9 points may seem like a lot, half of NC State's losses this season were by 9 or more points. Given that plus the fact they are facing one of the top teams in the nation (and a rival that won't hold back given the chance to rout) and the fact they are very tired after all the basketball over the past week, this one gets ugly and UNC pulls away for blowout win by 15+ points. NORTH CAROLINA -9 |
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03-16-24 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -6 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #610: CBB Saturday Purdue Boilermakers -6 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 1 ET - Live by the three, die by the three. Today is the day Wisconsin's Big Ten Tourney run dies. 3rd game in 3 days. The legs start to give out. That is very important in 3 point shooting. The Badgers have been ridiculous from three point land in each of their first two games in the tourney. Now they face a Purdue team that shut them down from downtown in each of their two meetings this season. I also like the fact that the Boilermakers faced a tough Spartans team yesterday. Gutting out a gutsy win over a Tom Izzo-coached team is never easy come tourney time. Keep in mind the Badgers played a struggling Maryland team and then Northwestern so far in this tourney. I know the Wildcats finished ahead of Michigan State this season in the Big Ten but when you factor in the Tom Izzo effect, the Boilers arguably faced the tougher match-up yesterday. Give credit to the Badgers for a solid run but I could see their 3-point shooting really drop off here (just like the regular season meetings) especially with some weary legs. The Boilers have a rest edge and they are fully focused on becoming the first team in 24 years to win both the Big Ten regular season title and Big Ten tourney in the same season. Look for big man Zach Edey to have another huge game and the fact their largest deficit was only 1 point and they led by as many as 12 points yesterday has led to value here considering they only won the game by 5 points. That is keeping this line a little low and I look for the Boilers to roll by double digits given all of the above. PURDUE -6 |
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03-15-24 | Colorado -1.5 v. Washington State | Top | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #857: CBB Friday Colorado Buffaloes -1.5 -115 or money line -130 vs Washington State Cougars @ 10:30 ET in Pac-12 Tourney at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV - Love the line movement on this one. Colorado opened favored by about 2.5 then came down to 1.5 and now appears headed back up. First off, why were the Buffaloes favored in the first place even though Washington State is ranked and the Buffaloes are unranked? Exactly! Odds makers know! Why did the line come down? Sharps wanted to move it down! Why is it now going back up? Sharps took advantage of the lower number and the bigger bets are starting to come in. In addition to all these betting and market factors, I also like Colorado here because they are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time. The Buffaloes have won 7 straight games! The Cougars have two recent losses and they were to Pac-12 teams that finished the regular season with a combined 17-23 record in conference games! Colorado is the better team offensively including at the free throw line. That could be key in a projected tighter game. Though this game may indeed be tight I just do not see the Buffaloes being denied here. Colorado playing with such confidence right now. The Buffs were tested yesterday by a solid Utah team while the Cougars took advantage of facing an inconsistent Stanford team that ended up finishing their year on a 3-9 run. Don't let this line fool you. The Buffaloes are favored with good reasoning here as noted above. COLORADO -1.5 -115 or money line -130 |
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03-15-24 | Hawks v. Jazz +125 | Top | 122-124 | Win | 125 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz +125 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 9:40 ET - Good home dog value here and no points needed the way I see it. Utah 19-13 at home this season while the Hawks road record is the exact opposite of that this season. Of course the Hawks are also without Trae Young now but they also have additional injury issues entering this one. Utah will be without Markanen again but, prior to a loss to an elite Boston team, the Jazz had won 2 of last 3 home games and the only loss was by just 2 points. Considering the fact that Atlanta is 3-7 SU last 10 road games and Bogdanovic off an ugly game as he is dealing with an illness and is questionable and Trae Young is still out too, the Hawks are a bit over-valued here. Atlanta just looked right past Portland and lost and the same thing could happen here as they underestimate another team as they look forward to their trip to LA to play the Lakers and Clippers plus then they have a tough Suns team next. I expect another sub-par effort from the wounded Hawks here. In their last game Murray had 40 points and no one else topped 13 points. That is not a good sign of where this Atlanta team is right now. The Jazz, though Clarkson won't play tonight, had Clarkson and 2 others all score at least 20 points in their loss to the Celtics. The Jazz are a little bit more of a balanced team and they are at home and they are offering plus money on the money line. I'll take it! UTAH +125 |
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03-15-24 | Providence +5 v. Marquette | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #841: CBB Friday: Providence Friars +5 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 8 ET in Big East Tourney at Madison Square Garden - The Friars are off a great win over Creighton yesterday after an easy win over a horrible Georgetown team Wednesday. Yes it is a 3rd game in 3 days for Providence but they do catch Marquette off an intense physical and emotional grinder of a win over Villanova yesterday that did require OT. That said, this one sets up well for an upset. Will grab the points here just in case but the Friars enter this game with a lot of confidence and they actually had 70 shots from the field yesterday compared to just 58 for the Bluejays. In other words, the win was not a fluke and they took great care of the ball as well and that had an edge in the turnover department for the Friars as well. Providence has won 6 of 9 games and Marquette is at a disadvantage in the rebounding department also. Prior to yesterday's OT win over Villanova, the Golden Eagles were on a 6-6 run in games played away from home. Also, the only 2 wins that were blowout wins were against DePaul and Georgetown - the two worst teams in the Big East. The other 4 wins were by an average margin of 4.5 ppg an none of those wins by more than 6 points. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and, though I expect an outright upset, we'll grab the points just in case the Friars fall a bucket or so short. PROVIDENCE +5 |
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03-14-24 | Utah v. Colorado -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #782: CBB Thursday Colorado Buffaloes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 11:30 ET - Excellent line value here as the Buffaloes have won 6 in a row and have the rest edge here too as they have been off for a few days while the Utes were in action yesterday. Utah, prior to yesterday's win had lost 8 of 12 games and though they beat the Buffaloes by 5 earlier this season they also lost at Colorado by 24 in the rematch. This Buffs team playing with a lot of confidence right now and has all the key edges going in their favor here. Utah started the season 11-2 but then went 7-11 the rest of the way before this conference tourney. Colorado, on the other hand, has won 11 of 15 games since starting the season 11-5. Two teams that truly have been trending in opposite directions. Also, the Buffaloes finally got the much needed confidence boost by winning some road games. They needed that and this will also help them in his neutral site game in Vegas. COLORADO -3.5 |
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03-14-24 | Knicks v. Blazers +10.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 vs New York Knicks @ 10 ET - Of course the Knicks should win this game SU but I don't see them winning this in a complete blowout. This is their first game on this west coast swing after playing 4 straight home games. Also, the tougher games on this road trip are up next with facing the Kings, Warriors and Nuggets. I just can't see New York being too excited nor too focused on facing this Blazers team they already beat handily two months ago in New York! That said, this spot could be a bit tricky for the Knicks. The Trail Blazers have gone 4-4 SU L8 games. Granted, the wins were against teams that are not on the level of this New York team. However, just getting some SU wins is a confidence boost for a Blazers team having a tough season. Also, some of the players they are missing are close to coming back as well. That is also a positive in terms of creating good vibes and positive energy for the team. I look for them to put up a strong fight on their home floor here and this game will be decided by single digits. PORTLAND +10.5 |
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03-14-24 | Boston College v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #734: CBB Thursday Virginia Cavaliers -4.5 vs Boston College Eagles @ 9:30 ET - Eagles playing for 3rd straight night. Virginia has huge rest edge. Cavaliers won the first meeting even though it was at Boston College. Now this neutral site game in the tourney (in DC) truly is a location that favors the Cavs. They have stellar defense and did score 72 points in 2 of their last 3 games so it gives them some added confidence on the offensive end. On the defensive end there is no shortage of confidence for this tough Cavaliers team. Look for them to use that tenacious defense to pull away as this game goes on and they wear down a tired Eagles team playing a 3rd straight day. The revenge angle for BC that many in the market will buy into is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. We take advantage! VIRGINIA -4.5 |
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03-14-24 | St. John's v. Seton Hall +4.5 | Top | 91-72 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #746: CBB Thursday Seton Hall Pirates +4.5 @ St John's Red Storm @ 2:30 ET - I know many might look at this and say it is a home game for St John's and it is true that the Red Storm do play home games at Madison Square Garden too. However, Seton Hall is from the NYC metro area as well and MSG is essentially right between the campuses of these two schools. Also, the Pirates won both regular season meetings so many people will be looking at the double revenge factor as well. The result of all this in my opinion is that St John's is getting too much support in the betting markets and we are getting plenty of value here on the underdog side catching 4.5 points! It is true that the Red Storm wrapped up the season winning 5 in a row. However, 3 of the 5 wins were against the 2 Big East teams that finished the season with a combined 2-38 record in the Big East. I am not saying St John's is a bad team or that Seton Hall is an elite team. I am just saying that these teams are close to equal in my opinion and I would say the Pirates are the slightly better team. The Red Storm are simply over-rated here and I look for the underdogs to make it a rare 3-0 season sweep over St John's but we will grab the points just in case. SETON HALL +4.5 |
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03-13-24 | Cincinnati v. Kansas OVER 138 | Top | 72-52 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #659: CBB Wednesday OVER 138 in Kansas Jayhawks vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 9:30 ET - Both teams have averaged scoring about 75 to 76 points this season and allowed about 68 to 69 points this season. We have good value with the low total posted on this game. The key is that the Jayhawks are without a couple of top players and that will weaken them in the paint some. At the same time however, Kansas is loaded with talent and is going with a "small ball" lineup here. I expect this to result in a high-scoring game. Their defensive presence around the rim is not going to be as strong as usual and now here they face a Cincinnati team that has added confidence from B2B wins in which they scored 90+ points in each game. Granted the games were against a bad West Virginia team but it still helps in terms of confidence on the offensive end. Here the Bearcats will be able to attack more than usual with success against a smaller than usual Kansas lineup. At the same time, the Jayhawks are out to prove they can win without a couple of their top players and I expect a huge effort from Kansas in this one. The Cats, not including OT points of course, averaged 81 points in their final 3 games this season. The Jayhawks, prior to an ugly season-ending loss to Houston (which means even more motivation for Kansas here) had averaged 77 points per game their last 3 games. Cincinnati is a 3 point favorite here which, with a total of 138, would put this game at about 70-67. I feel strongly that both teams are fully capable of topping those numbers in this one. Particularly true given the small ball style that Kansas will be playing in this one. They certainly are going to respond on offense after scoring just 46 points in most recent game. OVER 138 in Kansas |
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03-13-24 | Bulls +150 v. Pacers | Top | 132-129 | Win | 150 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Chicago Bulls +150 @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:40 ET - The Pacers are in a B2B spot and the Bulls are rested but coming off B2B losses including the most recent one at home in UGLY fashion. That set this one up well for a road dog upset in divisional action. I know Indiana has been better in divisional games than Chicago has this season but these two teams are not too far apart in the standings really. Also, before the Bulls lost at LA to the Clippers, they had won 8 of last 10 road games! So Chicago has been sneaky good on the road for many weeks now and is coming off bad home loss and a road loss. So the set up here is truly ideal especially with the Pacers in a back to back. Also, the Bulls have not lost two consecutive road games since late January! Last but certainly not least, Chicago has not lost more than 2 games in a row overall since NOVEMBER! Dating back to that losing streak in November, the Bulls are now a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. No points needed here, look for the Bulls to win this one outright! Each of last 6 Indiana wins have been by 9 or more points so I really don't think the points would help us anyway here but I do love the plus money on this money line testing that 5-0 streak! Let's win big again with that going for 6 in a row. CHICAGO +150 |
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03-13-24 | Xavier -1.5 v. Butler | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #679: CBB Wednesday Xavier Musketeers -1.5 vs Butler Bulldogs @ 4 ET - This line is around a 1.5 and I like the Musketeers to respond in this opportunity at right back revenge. They just lost at Butler in the Bulldogs regular season finale and Xavier can get the best kind of payback right here in the Big East Tourney! Also, the Musketeers did win the first game when the teams met in Cincinnati and that was their 2nd straight win in this series. They bounce back here after the loss at Butler. The Musketeers dominated the glass in both meetings this season and they will cut down on their turnovers here in the rematch of the last season 6-point loss. Also, Xavier does a better job of getting to the free throw line than the Bulldogs. In a potentially tight contest I want the better rebounding team, that also thrives on getting to the rack and creating contact to get to the FT line, and that also has revenge on their minds. Great set up here to lay a short number! XAVIER -1.5 |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +120 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 120 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Sacramento Kings +120 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 10 ET - The Kings are at home and off a home loss in which they were held to 109 points. Sacramento is 5-1 SU the last 6 times they entered a game off a loss in which they were held to 109 points or less. Ironically, the lone loss in that 5-1 run was in OT at Milwaukee. So you have a strong angle here plus you have the revenge angle working in your favor as well. Great spot for the Kings. The Bucks are off a road win but had lost 7 of last 12 road games heading into that one. Milwaukee had been better on defense but now they've allowed 122 ppg L3 games and this is the final game of a 4-game road trip so it is also a bit of a tricky spot as many team historically struggle in a spot like this when wrapping up a road trip. Definitely a strong situational edge for the home dog in this one. We'll forego the points and grab the money line. SACRAMENTO +120 |
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03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +150 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 150 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Rotation #634: CBB Tuesday St Mary's Gaels +150 vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 9 ET - First off, why am I taking a shot with the +150 money line here instead of grabbing the +3.5 points? Well, the Bulldogs have won 25 games this season and all have been by a margin of at least 4 points! The Gaels only have one loss by less than 4 points this season and that one was by 3 points. So the odds suggest that if Gonzaga wins, they cover. But the fact is St Mary's is primed for an upset here in Las Vegas. They truly have closed the gap on the Bulldogs this season and did split the season series with them. Also, most of the guys that are on this Gaels team were with them last season when they got embarrassed here in Las Vegas and lost to the Bulldogs 77-51 in the WCC Championship Game! Trust me, they have not forgotten. They have the better defense this season and they are ready for payback here and there is a reason the Zags opened up as such a small favorite here. No points needed, the solid D of the Gaels helps lead the way to revenge here. ST MARY'S +150 |
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03-11-24 | Stony Brook v. Hofstra -7 | Top | 63-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #854 CBB Monday Hofstra Pride -7 vs Stony Brook Seawolves @ 8:30 ET - The Seawolves had to rally multiple times yesterday in an amazing double OT win over Drexel. Not only will this be the 3rd game in 3 days for Stony Brook, their top 5 scorers in yesterday's game scored 87 of their 91 points. Those 5 players averaged 39.4 minutes played. That means you have the guys that scored 96% of their points yesterday and are playing their 3rd game in 3rd days AVERAGED playing a FULL GAME of 40 minutes yesterday. This is a fantastic setup for the more rested Pride team to dominate. Hofstra has won 12 of 15 games and each of their last 6 wins have been by a double digit margin. The Pride did have 4 guys play heavy minutes in yesterday's game but that was their first game in more than a week and they will definitely have the fresher legs here. They pull away as this game goes in and it make it a 7th straight win by a double digit margin. Lay it! HOFSTRA -7 |
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03-11-24 | Hornets +145 v. Pistons | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Monday Charlotte Hornets +145 @ Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - I know we could have the Hornets at 3.5 here but, believe it or not, the Pistons only have 1 win this season in a game decided by 4 or less points this season. Also, Charlotte only has 1 loss this season in a game decided by 4 or less points. So, the point is, if this game is tight at the end, it very likely goes the way of the Hornets and so the points do not even matter. We'll go for the bigger plus money return by utilizing the money line here. Note that the Pistons have defeated the Hornets in both games this season but only have 8 wins the rest of this season. Charlotte, despite no wins against league-worst Detroit, have 16 wins against the rest of the NBA. So, the point is the team with TWICE as many wins against the rest of the NBA, is a dog here. Now, of course it makes sense to the betting markets because Detroit is at home here and most people view these teams are nearly equal. However, I like the double revenge aspect and the aforementioned 16-win vs 8-win angle plus the Hornets are the better team defensively and they enter this game off a win which helps from a confidence standpoint. Speaking of confidence, I am confident in the fact no points needed here. CHARLOTTE +145 |
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03-10-24 | Pacers +115 v. Magic | Top | 111-97 | Win | 115 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Indiana Pacers Money Line +115 @ Orlando Magic @ 6 ET - Someone knows something. Yes, this is one of those games! This line opened around a pick'em and sure enough the Magic are now as high as 2.5 point favorite. Ask yourself this. Why was this line set this way? Exactly! It was an open invite to take the Magic which is why we are doing the exact opposite, of course, and grabbing the Pacers! Note that Orlando is off a loss and had won 13 of 16 games prior to that plus they are at home for this one. Conversely, Indiana has lost 4 of 6 games! All this yet this line was a pick'em? Indeed this is a trap line for the betting public and I am going on the other side of the move and we do not even need the points. Outright win for Indiana here. The Pacers have double revenge here from losing both games this season with the Magic and those two games were in Indiana. The road team has now won 3 straight in this match-up as the final meeting last season was a Pacers road win at Orlando as well. Look for the road team to make it 4 in a row and grab the money line road dog in this one! This line was set at a pick'em originally for a reason. Now we take advantage here and grab the underdog value. INDIANA +115 |
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03-10-24 | Stony Brook v. Drexel -3.5 | Top | 91-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #822: CBB Sunday Drexel Dragons -3.5 vs Stony Brook Seawolves @ 6 ET - Stony Brook had to play yesterday so this is a big scheduling edge for Drexel as they have been off for a week. Also, the Dragons have won 20 games this season. Compare that to the Northeastern team that the Seawolves beat yesterday - that team now has 20 losses this season. Also, Stony Brook was 20 of 22 from the FT line while Northeastern was 12 of 21 from the FT line. That was the difference in the game which is not saying a whole helluva lot about the Seawolves. This Dragons team has veteran leadership and a deep rotation and they will take advantage of facing Stony Brook in a B2B. Yes this is a neutral site game in DC but this is a bargain line that has moved down on the favorite and I am happy to take advantage of this Dragons team is the stronger team and will advance to the next round of the CAA tourney. They take advantage of having had a double bye heading into this one. DREXEL -3.5 |
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03-10-24 | Ohio State -110 v. Rutgers | Top | 73-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #805: CBB Sunday Ohio State PK -110 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 2 ET - The Buckeyes have been a different team ever since they fired their head coach. Yes, this is Senior Day at Rutgers but the Scarlet Knights have been on the fade with losses in 5 of 6 games. Ohio State, on the other hand, has won 5 of 7 games. Clearly a case of two teams going in opposite directions. Also, Ohio State has 18 wins on the season and they have won 3 straight. They are motivated here to stay hot and get that 19th win and then look to make a little noise in the Big Ten Tourney and get to the 20-win mark at least. They did beat the Scarlet Knights in the first meeting but revenge is not enough to get it done for Rutgers in this one. They are simply slumping too much. The Buckeyes are the much better shooting team and are much more of a threat offensively than the Scarlet Knights. Also, Ohio State has been playing better defense since the coaching change. This is simply a new team right now in terms of morale, etc and the Buckeyes will get it done here. OHIO STATE Pick -110 |
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03-09-24 | Raptors v. Blazers +130 | Top | 118-128 | Win | 130 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Portland Trail Blazers +130 vs Toronto Raptors @ 10:10 ET - The Blazers are in a B2B spot but they are 9-10 SU against Eastern Conference teams. Toronto is only 7-17 SU against Western Conference foes! So the point is, even though you are talking about two teams having rough seasons, the Blazers have favored much better in non-conference action than the Raptors. Also, Portland has the homecourt edge in this one. The Trail Blazers have won twice in last five games. Toronto has lost 7 straight road games against Western Conference foes. Look for that run to reach 8 in a row in this one! Grab the home dog value here. No points needed! PORTLAND +130 |
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03-09-24 | San Diego v. Santa Clara -11.5 | Top | 79-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #774: CBB Saturday Santa Clara Broncos -11.5 vs San Diego Toreros @ 10 ET - Won here with San Diego yesterday but that was more of a play against Pepperdine than a play on the Toreros. The fact is that San Diego won ugly but they will struggle to win ugly here. The Toreros face a Broncos team that has the huge rest edge plus Santa Clara dominated them on the glass in the regular season meetings. The Broncos just have too much and the Toreros will not be able to keep up as the rebounding edge plus points in the paint edge as well as turnover differential should all go in favor of the rested Broncos in this one. I don't often lay big points in hoops or football but sometimes a double digit favorite is screaming for a bet and this is one of those. All the edges belong to the Broncos and they pull away as this game goes on. Lay it! SANTA CLARA -11.5 |
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03-09-24 | Connecticut v. Providence OVER 140.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Rotation #705: Saturday College Basketball: OVER 140.5 in Providence Friars vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8 ET - Providence needs a big upset win here to boost their chances of a shot in the Big Dance this season. The Friars will absolutely go all out here but the defending champ Huskies are again one of the top teams in the country and they will be tough to stop. UConn has averaged 81 ppg this season and they are about a 9 point favorite in this one. So that would put this game in the 81-72 range so we have quite a bit of flexibility compared to this posted total. Also, the Friars are off a dominating win over Georgetown but the Hoyas are horrible. This followed Providence, not including OT points of course, allowing an average of 75 points over their 10 games leading into that one. They are just not that strong defensively. I look for big points here as they are averaging 73 points per game this season and must go all out here at home in this season finale. The Friars will do just that but the Huskies scoring onslaught continues. UConn, in their last 11 games, has 10 wins and just 1 loss and averaged 84 ppg in the 10 victories! OVER 140.5 in Providence |
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03-09-24 | Creighton v. Villanova +1.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #638: CBB Saturday Villanova Wildcats +1.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:30 ET - Creighton is a tough team but, for years (and this season is no different) they are much tougher at home than on the road. Now they face a Villanova team that has been playing great defense and is desperate for a win after a road loss at Seton Hall. Back home where they have been playing particularly well, I don't see the Wildcats being denied here. I know the Bluejays have revenge from a home loss to Nova earlier this season but the Cats are still going to prove to be the hungrier team here as their chances at getting into the Big Dance are truly dependent on winning this game. Another key is the defensive play for sure as Villanova, other than a loss at #1 UConn, has allowed only 56 points per game in their other 8 games since the end of January! Creighton is allowing 73.6 points per game since late January. Yes, the Bluejays are the better team offensively but defense and home court matters a lot in this match-up and Creighton is known for struggling with their shooting away from home and this Wildcats team has been playing solid perimeter defense as well. The desperate home club gets it done in this one! VILLANOVA +1.5 |
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03-08-24 | Pepperdine v. San Diego +3 | Top | 52-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #892: CBB Friday WCC Tourney San Diego Toreros +3 vs Pepperdine Waves @ 9 ET in Las Vegas - The Waves just blasted hapless Pacific last night. Not only is this a B2B spot for Pepperdine but they are just 1-5 SU the last 6 times they are off a win in which they allowed 63 points or less. Note that Lorenzo Romar is out as coach after this season for Pepperdine. Last night they faced a Pacific team that was also without its head coach (and was already released from the program) and so the Tigers used an associate head coach. It was a disaster for Pacific and it looked like they did not know what they were doing and they did not even challenge things defensively. It was an embarrassment. So the Waves now going from facing a Pacific team that was 0-16 in WCC action this season and did not even want to be in the tournament (apparently) to now facing a San Diego team that will come to play here. This will be Romar's final game in my opinion. He enjoyed the demolition last night but now reality sets back in. San Diego is not a great team but they are solid and the Toreros won 7 of their last 11 games. 3 of those 4 losses were against 3 of the top teams in the conference. Certainly Pepperdine does not fall into that category. That said, take advantage of the line value being offered here as the Waves won 102 to 43 last night and that has inflated this line. SAN DIEGO +3 |
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03-08-24 | Hornets +130 v. Wizards | Top | 100-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Friday Charlotte Hornets +130 @ Washington Wizards @ 7 ET - I know the Hornets have issues of their own but this is more about a play against Washington. Many people know that the Wizards are on an 0-16 SU losing streak but many may not realize that Washington has not won a home game in 2024! Indeed the Wizards last win at home was back in late December and they have since lost 16 home games in a row as well! So this pick is testing dual 16-0 runs in terms of play against angles. Washington is only favored here because they are at home but they actually have won only 3 home games all season! Conversely, the Hornets have won 7 road games this season including 4 since the calendar flipped the page to 2024. The point is that we are talking about solid line value here and in terms of solid SU trending so no points needed. We'll again grab the money line in this one and look for another outright upset. Charlotte has lost 5 straight but they faced a rather tough schedule and this followed a solid 5-1 SU run L6 games! I am going to challenge the Wizards to finally win a game and note that the Hornets are the better team defensively and they have gone 4-7 in divisional games while the Wizards are 2-11 in divisional games this season. Road dog is the play here and no points needed! CHARLOTTE +130 |
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03-07-24 | Colorado +3 v. Oregon | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #751: College Basketball Thursday Colorado Buffaloes +3 @ Oregon Ducks @ 9 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and now the Ducks, unsurprisingly, are all the way up to a 3 point favorite. For one thing, the Buffaloes might have Cody Williams and Julian Hammond back for this one. Additionally, even if they do not, Colorado has been winning without Hammond the last 3 games and Williams the last 2 games. They have won 4 straight games and have plenty of momentum here. I know about the home/road difference for the Buffaloes but so do the oddsmakers and this line was set this way for a reason! Now we get exceptional value after the line move. Note that Jermaine Couisnard just scored 39 for the Ducks but Oregon still lost by 20. Yes that was against Arizona but it still says a lot about this team. When the Ducks faced Colorado earlier this season Couisnard had only 11 points and the Ducks lost by 16 points! The point is that the Buffaloes, even though on the road for this rematch, have proven they match up well with this Ducks team. Additionally, Colorado has won 2 of last 5 road games including most recent one so they are starting to get a little confidence going even when traveling. The overall 4-game winning streak also helps in that regard. The Ducks loss at Colorado started an overall slide for them that they have really not bounced back from. Oregon started this season 13-3 and, ever since, has a record of 6-7. Also, the Ducks have only split (2-2) in their last 4 home games. Grab the road dog in this one! COLORADO +3 |
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03-07-24 | Nets v. Pistons +120 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 120 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Detroit Pistons +115 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7 ET - This is a great set-up. No points needed in my opinion and we'll grab the plus money on the money line here. The Nets are without Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson for this game. Also, Ben Simmons - as per usual - is also out for this game. Though Simmons hardly plays, Brooklyn sure could use him tonight with Thomas and Johnson being out. Another key here is the set up as the Nets are off a big divisional win over the 76ers. Though Brooklyn has won 3 of 4, the victories came against the Sixers without Embiid and Maxey and the Hawks without Trae Young. The Pistons have had a very rough season but there is a reason this line is priced this way. Don't let the number fool you. The home dog is the play here for the reasons above and I am expecting the outright upset. We'll grab the money line. DETROIT +115 |
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03-06-24 | Kings +125 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 125 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Sacramento Kings Money Line +125 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:40 ET - Great set-up here. The Lakers are off a big home win versus Thunder. The Kings are off a frustrating home loss to the Bulls. As a result, Sacramento is not in a good mood here and they are the healthier team heading into this match-up also. Additionally, the Kings have won 6 of the last 7 meetings including 3 straight at LA. These teams are right next to each other in the standings and I love the situational aspect here. Sacramento is 8-2 SU this season when off a home loss. One of those 2 losses was at Denver when in this situation. The Nuggets are 24-6 at home this season and the defending champs. So in the other 9 games, including a big when hosting Denver in this situation, the Kings have gone 8-1 SU! The Lakers are certainly not the Nuggets and don't have a home court edge like Denver. LA has been strong at home this season but the Kings have not been phased in this building in the least. In fact they also just beat the Clippers in the same venue about a week ago. The Kings long-term success over the Lakers continues and we do not even need the points here. SACRAMENTO +125 |
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03-06-24 | Villanova +1.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #671: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +1.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 6:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a win at Providence and are playing their best basketball of the season. Their defense has been fantastic. Villanova has won 5 of 6 games and, other than a loss at #1 ranked UConn, has allowed only 55 points per game in their other 7 games since then end of January. They blasted Seton Hall in that stretch so, of course, the Pirates want revenge. However, the Wildcats had great defense from Moore on the top player for Seton Hall and I expect a repeat of that here. Moore is known for his defense and he seems much healthier now than he was early this season. Also, the team as a whole is playing their best D of the season. The Pirates are at home here but are only 3-2 SU L5 home games and 2 of the wins were against the Hoyas and Blue Demons. Note that Georgetown and DePaul are a combined 2-36 SU in Big East action this season. Don't get me wrong, Seton Hall is a solid club but this game Wednesday is huge in terms of Big Dance scenarios for each of these teams and I am backing the team playing better defense that also has some match-up edges. Those match-up edges are so important in basketball. Seton Hall has allowed about 75 ppg their last 7 games. Even if you take out the B2B bad losses to Creighton and UConn, the Pirates have allowed 69 ppg their other 5 games since the end of January. We are into March and it is the time of year when defense is a key to making a big run. Tourney time is not quite yet here for the major conferences but it already feels like it is here and that will be the type of pressure involved in this game. That said, give me the better defense and the team with more confidence entering this match-up based on recent results. This one is all Wildcats. VILLANOVA +1.5 |
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03-05-24 | Detroit v. Wisc-Milwaukee -11.5 | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #666: CBB Horizon League Tourney Tuesday Milwaukee Panthers -11.5 vs Detroit Titans @ 8 ET - Detroit is getting a little attention in the marketplace and I get it. It is a new opportunity for the Titans after a disgusting 1-30 season. Also, they are off a tight loss to Oakland and the Golden Grizzlies are the top team in the Horizon. However, Oakland had already wrapped up the Horizon League regular season title so they were very lax defensively in that game. Detroit took advantage and shot uncharacteristically well. Now Detroit faces a fired up team in Milwaukee and the Panthers will be intense defensively. The Panthers averaged scoring about 84 ppg when at home this season and the Titans averaged only about 65 ppg when on the road this season. Don't be surprised when the hosts win this by 20+ points! They have the talent edge, the defensive edge, the rebounding edge and home court as well. Before that road loss by just 5 points to Oakland, 14 of last 18 road defeats for Detroit came by at least a dozen points! The Panthers wrapped up the regular season on a 5-1 run and blasted Green Bay 90-69 in their season finale. They carry that moment right into this game. MILWAUKEE -11.5 |
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03-05-24 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 207.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from its opener and this is a classic case where the long-term history is being given far more credit than the current trending. Yes, the Hornets are certainly known for low-scoring games but they have been playing better of late and scoring better. Also, being on their home floor makes a difference too. At the same time, Orlando enters this game on a 3-game winning streak in which they have averaged 112 points per game. The Magic also are looking to make up for a dud though in their most recent road game. Additionally, the first meeting between these teams totaled 247 points and the Hornets won that one right here in Charlotte. So the Magic, leaders in the SE Division, also have revenge on their minds here. The Hornets are allowing 116.5 ppg last 4 games but also have scored an average of 114 ppg in their last 6 home games. That included facing the Bucks and defensive-minded Memphis and the Lakers too. The point is that Charlotte can score decently at home and they are being under-valued here in that regard. At the same time, revenge-minded Orlando should go off here as well! The Magic have won 8 of 10 and, not including OT points of course, have averaged 114 ppg in the victories. This total is just too low. OVER 207.5 in Charlotte |
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03-04-24 | Blazers v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER 211.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trailblazers @ 8 ET - The Wolves off the 1-point low-scoring loss last night on their home floor and will go all out here against a defenseless foe. Of course that is why they are such a big favorite here and I like the fact that Minnesota has averaged 122 points per game in their 3 meetings with Portland this season. The line on this one is 14 so that would put this game at 122 to 108 if Minny hits their average against the Blazers and if the odds makers are right (as they so often are) with their assessment of the proper spread here. That would put this game in the 230 range and honestly I would not be surprised to see that and for sure, we have a lot of wiggle room with the total posted on this one as you can see. Look for an up tempo game from the T-wolves at home after that grinder last night. They will take advantage of a weaker foe and this one turns into a free-flowing game with plenty of points - yet again - between these teams. All 3 meetings this season between these teams have totaled at least 209 and given the situation here we should eclipse that for sure, just as the last two meetings have eclipsed that as well. The situation boosted by Wolves off a low-scoring loss and Blazers off a confidence-boosting rare OT road win! OVER 211.5 in Minnesota |
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03-04-24 | Queens NC v. Florida Gulf Coast -4 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #306662: ASUN Tourney CBB Monday: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4 vs Queens University Royals @ 7 ET - This is a conference tournament where the team with the better record gets it on their home court. But I am going to start with talking about road games. The reason is because you can oftentimes tell the better team by how they perform on the road. In this case, on the surface, you have two very evenly matched teams by looking at records. But if you look at how the Eagles performed on the road (including in losses!) compared to how the Royals performed on the road, you will see that Florida Gulf Coast was the stronger team on the road. Not only that, as noted above, now Queens University has to go on the road for this one while the Eagles are on their home floor. It all adds up to solid line value here as Florida Gulf Coast should take this by 5 or more points. The Eagles last 8 home games, and 11 of 13 this season, all were decided by a margin of 5 or more points. I also like the fact that FGC started 3-9 this season but then went 11-8 the rest of the way. Conversely, Queens started the season 6-5 but have since gone 7-13 the rest of the way. Also, 14 of the Royals 18 losses were by 6 or more points this season. While Queens just became division 1 in the summer of 2022, the Eagles have been Division 1 for more than dozen years and have been to the Big Dance 3 times. I like the home team for all the reasons noted above and I also like them for their better defensive play including key hustle stats like steals and blocks in their most recent match-up. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4 |
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03-03-24 | Stanford v. Colorado -13 | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #852: CBB Sunday Colorado Buffaloes -13 vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET - Colorado has been rolling offensively heading into this game and they are 15-1 SU at home this season. Stanford enters this game off 5 straight losses and with the Cardinal offense quite sluggish. The Cardinal just will not be able to keep up here. The Buffaloes know they are on the bubble and this is also their final home game of the season. You know that kind of effort that will result in for Colorado ... it will absolutely be an intense effort from the hosts here and they pull away for a win by about 20. One of Stanford's better shooters dealing with a wrist injury so that is not helping matters either as the Cardinal slide toward an ugly finish to the season. Not including OT points of course, the Buffaloes have averaged 83 ppg last 3 games - all wins. The Cardinal have averaged just 66 points in their last 5 games - all losses. I do not normally lay big points but this one is screaming blowout rout! Lay it! COLORADO -13 |
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03-03-24 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Saturday OVER 221.5 in Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 6 ET - The Hornets are off loss in which they scored 114 points and they have been much more competitive recently. That said, look for them to score plenty and hang close with this Raptors team favored by 8 points in this one. Toronto should score very well here but is not known for defense. Toronto has allowed at least 119 points in 7 of last 8 games! They allowed 124 ppg in those 7 games. You can see why I am expecting an improving Charlotte team to score well given those numbers. Also, 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams totaled at least 235 points this season. Toronto has averaged 121.5 ppg scoring last 6 games. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting at least 230s in this one. We get a low total here because of Charlotte's long-term reputation but look at their short-term plus look at the long-term of these Raptors. This game will be wide-open! OVER 221.5 in Toronto |
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03-03-24 | Seton Hall v. Connecticut OVER 138.5 | Top | 61-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #815: CBB Sunday OVER 138.5 in Connecticut Huskies vs Seton Hall Pirates @ Noon ET - The Huskies will be relentless in this game. They lost at Seton Hall again this season, just like last season. Now they get revenge at home as a win here locks up the Big East regular season title for them. Connecticut then does not even have to worry about next week's game at Marquette. Of course the Huskies are pretty well locked into winning the title thanks to the Golden Eagles loss yesterday but why not make it official now? Of course the Huskies want to do that and, of course, they are about a 15-point favorite here with good reason. Connecticut shot very poorly against the Pirates earlier this season. That is not happening here at home! The Huskies will score very well here but the Pirates have enough scoring to hang around in this game. Let say Seton Hall only gets to 65, that still puts this game at about 80-65 per the spread on this game and that is mid-140s and we have a posted total that has come down to the upper 130s. Lets take advantage! Seton Hall is off a loss at Creighton but this followed wins in 5 of 6 games and the Pirates scored an average of 76 points in the 5 wins. The Huskies are averaging 81 ppg this season. I like the odds on them getting their average in a revenge spot in which they will be relentless in attacking on the offensive end. The Huskies have averaged 84 points scored in last 8 wins. More of the same here. OVER 138.5 in Connecticut |
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03-02-24 | Gonzaga +2.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #801: CBB Saturday Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 @ St Mary's Gaels @ 10 ET - The Gaels already wrapped up the #1 seed for the WCC Tourney that is coming up. They should also have locked up a spot in the NCAA Tourney as well. That said, this game is not nearly as important to St Mary's as it is to Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have not been quite as strong as they usually are but they still showed what they can do in their most recent game with a blowout win courtesy of a huge 2nd half and that was on the road also. Now here they are out for revenge after losing at home 64-62 to the Gaels earlier this season. One of the big keys that night for St Mary's was Joshua Jefferson as he had 25% of their points with 16 points plus had 11 rebounds. He is now out for the season. Further limiting their depth in the paint is 7-footer Harry Wessels is out. The Bulldogs will take advantage here in the paint and they have big-time scorers all over the floor. Yes, the Gaels will try to slow them down but this game belongs to Gonzaga. I love the fact moved from the Bulldogs being a small favorite to now being an underdog of more than a bucket. There is a reason the line was originally set the way it was and the Bulldogs are all set for revenge here. GONZAGA +2.5 |
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03-02-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Denver Nuggets Pick -110 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers have been playing well at home this season including 4 straight wins. However, the Nuggets have won 5 straight overall and are the much stronger team in this match-up. They just beat Miami in most recent game even though Murray was only able to play 14 minutes. Even if he does not play tonight I still like Denver in this spot. But don't be surprised if he does suit up for facing the Lakers here. The Nuggets have 3 straight wins over solid teams in their 5-game run. Although the Lakers have won 4 straight at home, the last 3 wins were against the Wizards, Pistons and Spurs. Those are the 3 worst teams in the NBA with a combined record of 30-149 on the season! Now they face a 40-19 Denver team that is one of the top teams in the NBA and the defending champs. The Nuggets have beaten the Lakers 3 straight time and in both match-ups this season and now they make it 4 in a row and get the season 3-game sweep over this over-rated LA bunch. DENVER Pick -110 |
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03-02-24 | Virginia +9.5 v. Duke | Top | 48-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #733: CBB Saturday Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 6 ET - This is a revenge spot for Virginia. The last time they met Duke it was not just any game, it was the ACC Championship Game last March. They lost the game by 10 but it was a 4-point game with under a minute to go. The Cavaliers had a rough shooting effort in that game and that was the difference but they proved once again that they are capable of slowing down the Blue Devils offensive production. Duke comes into this one hot but look at what they have done against other strong ACC teams, like Virginia, this season. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina, they went 1-1 against Wake Forest (and the win was by 8 points) and they did beat Clemson but only by 1 point. They did crush Syracuse but split against Pitt including losing here at home to the Panthers. This Cavaliers team has not forgotten the ACC Final from a year ago and they play solid defense and the offense, led by playmaker Reece Beekman, looked really strong earlier this week in winning on the road at Boston College. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and I feel we have exceptional value here with such a strong defense getting huge points in this revenge match. Remember too that North Carolina already beat Duke this season and that is the same UNC team that Virginia lost too by 10 but trailed by only 5 with under a minute to go. I just feel this line is absolutely inflated when you consider the Blue Devils performance against solid ACC teams this season. VIRGINIA (+) |
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03-02-24 | Villanova +2.5 v. Providence | Top | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #601: CBB Saturday Villanova Wildcats +2.5 @ Providence Friars @ Noon ET - This one has made a big move toward Providence as Villanova opened as the small favorite here. I understand the move because the Friars have the home court edge here but also feel the odds makers had this one right. The Wildcats have been playing great defense. Other than a loss to a UConn team that is one of the best teams in the nation, Nova has allowed only 54 ppg in their other 6 games since the beginning of February. Villanova won 5 of those 6 games. They'll win this one too! Providence has lost 4 of last 8 games and allowed 77 points per game in their last 6 games since losing 68 to 50 at Villanova. Grab the better defense and the points here in a key game for Big Dance hopes. VILLANOVA +2.5 |
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03-01-24 | Dayton -110 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #887 CBB Friday Top Play Dayton Flyers Pick -110 @ Loyola-Chicago Ramblers @ 9 ET - This is a huge game and we get line value because the Flyers are on the road. Certainly the Ramblers are a solid team and deserve respect but it is with good reason that Dayton is already more of a consideration for the NCAA Tourney than Loyola in the most up to date projections provided for the Big Dance. In a key game like this I like to have the more seasoned team and the more veteran coach. Dayton certainly is the better program long-term and their coach is Anthony Grant. In the last 5 seasons (including this one) he has a combined record of 108-39! That is a helluva strong record and he will be turning 58 next month. As for the Ramblers Drew Valentine, he is just 32 and is one of the youngest head coaches in Division 1 basketball. Valentine had success in his first season here but a lot of that could be contributed to the Porter Moser regime that immediately preceded him. The true test begins after that first year and some of the prior coach's players are gone. Valentine, in the two seasons (including this one) since his rookie campaign as head coach, has led Loyola-Chicago to a 29-28 record. So the point is that, despite these teams being neck and neck in the A-10 standings this season, I would still argue that the Flyers are absolutely the superior team and have the coaching edge here too which is huge in big games like this. Dayton won both meetings last season including by 16 points here in Chicago despite making just 4 of 18 threes in that game. Certainly Loyola has improved this season but they are 0-3 against solid teams like Richmond, VCU and St Bonaventure. The Flyers opened up as a 2 point favorite here on the road with good reason and I like them even more now that the early line movement has taken this one down to a pick'em. DAYTON Pick -110 |
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03-01-24 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 212.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Friday Top Play OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - Tough break for those had the over, like we did, in last night's Hornets vs Bucks match-up. That game had 121 points at the half but then a ridiculous 89 points the rest of the way for a tough loss for those holding over tickets. Tonight should make up for that. I know Charlotte has a lot of low-scoring results but this Philly team has 2 road games on deck and they are coming off an ugly road loss at Boston. The 76ers will be ready to run plenty here at home as they continue play a different type of basketball with Embiid sidelined. As mentioned in prior write-ups, the Sixers traded away defense and grit for more offense and shooting when they were recently active before the trade deadline. Of course in a tough divisional game like they just had against the Celtics the results of that don't necessarily show up. But in a game like this hosting a Hornets team with one of the worst records in the NBA, you will see plenty of attacking from the Sixers offense here. Tobias Harris snaps his scoring slump with a big game against a road-adverse Hornets team. Charlotte had allowed 120.5 ppg L6 road games prior to rare low-scoring games at Portland and Golden State. That was followed by a home and home set with Bucks in which the allowed an average of 117 ppg. The Sixers have allowed 118 ppg since Embiid has been out with the injury after the Warriors game in late January. Sixers will play fast tonight and force the tempo as they look for a big home blowout. Take advantage of the line value as this total has dropped from its opener. OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #843: CBB Thursday Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 @ San Francisco Dons @ 11 PM ET - Unless I missed something, Gonzaga has now beaten San Francisco 28 games in a row in regular season and WCC Tourney action combined. February of 2012 is the last time the Dons knocked off the Bulldogs! Yes, second-placed Gonzaga has season finale with first-placed St Mary's (14-0 in WCC) on deck but this game against 3rd placed San Francisco is more important! Wait a second...how can that be? Well the Bulldogs are not going to catch the Gaels for 1st place in the division but they could lose out on 2nd place to the Dons should they lose this game! Also, of those 28 consecutive wins, only ONE was by less than FOUR points and the current line on this game is 3.5 points. Yes, San Francisco has had a great season but they have 3 losses in the WCC but guess who beat them? St Mary's TWICE and Gonzaga ONCE already this season. The point is that the Dons have not yet proven they can beat the best of the best in this conference! That said, I am happy to put these streaks to the test because the Bulldogs are also on the road here which will help insure the proper focus. They need this game. They know they slip into a tie with the Dons in the WCC should they lose this game. I also like the fact this line opened up in the -5 range but has dropped since then. Lay the short number and know you are taking a team that has absolutely dominated this series for a dozen years! GONZAGA -3.5 |
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02-29-24 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 216 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 216 in Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - The Hornets just got destroyed by the Bucks in Milwaukee by a score of 123 to 85. Now the rematch is in Charlotte and I fully expect the Hornets to score much better in this one on their home floor. However, they will again struggle to stop Milwaukee here as the Bucks are showing signs of finally getting it going under new head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have won 3 straight and scored an average of 118 points per game last 3 games. The Hornets also had been looking better prior to that ultra ugly shooting performance at Milwaukee. Prior to that, Charlotte had won 5 of 6 games. Also, the Hornets are happy to be back home after a 3 game road trip. Note that the Hornets have scored an average of 116.8 ppg last 5 home games. You can see, based on the Hornets better play of late and scoring numbers at home coupled with the Bucks recent win streak and better scoring as well, this total is just far too low in the 216 range. The Bucks are a 12-point favorite so 216 total means a final in the 114 to 102 range but, based on all of the above, both teams should top that number. In fact, Milwaukee has scored an average of 124 points in their 3 meetings with the Hornets this season. OVER 216 in Charlotte |
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02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #747 CBB Wednesday Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 @ Boston College Eagles @ 9 ET - The Cavaliers enter this game off B2B losses. Virginia's most recent road game was a disaster at Virginia Tech as the Hokies took that one by a 75-41 final! Those are the kind of losses you don't forget and this is the Cavs first opportunity on the road since that ugly loss in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers enter this one off B2B losses and that is is certainly noteworthy as they have not lost 3 straight games in 3 years! Virginia is on a 5-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games since that instance in Feb of 2021. You know Tony Bennett is going to have his guys ready for this game and we get line value because it is at Chestnut Hill. Yes, Boston College is solid at home but they have also lost to stronger ACC teams here and Virginia is one of the top teams in this conference. Also, the Cavs lost their most recent visit here so they want payback here. While the Eagles are the much stronger team offensively, the defense of Virginia is one of the best in the nation year in and year out under Bennett. The low total posted on this game by the odds makers tells you they expect the same thing I do. That is the fact that Virginia will be able to control the tempo here. If the Cavs get that type of low-scoring game they want they come out on top more often than not. Look for that to be the case again here as they bounce back off rare B2B losing games to take that aforementioned multi-year run to a perfect 6-0! VIRGINIA +1.5 |
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02-28-24 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 209.5 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday OVER 209.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:10 ET - This total has been dropping and, simply put, it has become too low. We only need 210 to be a winner here. Lets say the oddsmakers are correct, as they so often are, about the spread of 12 in this game. In that case, a total of 210 would mean a final of 111 to 99. Do you really think the Wolves are only to score 111 at home here? I sure don't! Memphis has allowed 121 ppg in going 0-4 L4 road games. But also look for the Grizzlies to bounce back after an ultra lousy home performance in most recent game in which they scored only 86 points. Prior to that one, Memphis had enjoyed a 3-game stretch in which they averaged 110 ppg. So you can see my 121 to 110 range with a Minny win would make sense here given those numbers. I do feel we have a lot of wiggle room here given this low total in the 210 range here. Just how much defense is Minny going to play here when they have tougher games against Sacramento and the Clippers on deck? Also, the Timberwolves have already won all 3 match-ups with Memphis this season. I just don't expect their defensive intensity to be at it's greatest here. Also, those 3 games in the season series have all totaled at least 216 points and averaged 222 points per game. We have got some solid line value here with this low total. Take advantage! OVER 209.5 in Minnesota |
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02-27-24 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 230.5 in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers lost a lot of defense and grit in the recent trades. But Philly is still a very talented team, even with Embiid out, and they can pile up points in the right situation. This is the right situation! The Sixers are facing a division rival they will struggle to stop and this game should turn into a "track meet" up and down the court with quick scoring opportunities. Philadelphia will bounce back from a tough shooting performance in most recent game for some of their bigger scorers. Boston is going to be aggressive on their home floor as they have won 8 straight games and 10 of 11 and they have done it with a lot of offense. Boston averaged 124.5 ppg in those 10 games. The line on this game is currently a -12. That would put this final at about 125 to 113 and honestly I am expecting even a little more as this one gets into the 240s just like the most recent meeting game. In that one the Sixers were without Embiid then too plus Maxey missed with an illness. That game still got into the mid-240s. That was even with Tatum getting ejected late in the 3rd quarter of that game. Boston still scored 125 in that game. Look for plenty of points again in this one as Maxey now available for the Sixers in the rematch. OVER 230.5 in Boston |
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02-27-24 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #631: Tuesday 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - Though the Panthers are off a win, they lost their prior road game badly so they will be looking to make up for that here. Also, prior to that road loss, they were on a 6-2 SU run in road games. Also, the Tigers are off a home win versus Florida State but were just 3-4 SU prior to this in their 7 most recent home games. The point is that home court is always baked into the lines but, in this case, neither one of these teams has met the traditional home/road dichotomy factors. So we get a little extra value here with the big points available for Pittsburgh. Also the Panthers lost at home to Pittsburgh earlier this season so this is a revenge game for Pitt as well. This is a huge game in terms of the Big Dance hopes for each and I am looking for a very tight game decided by a slim margin. Possible Panthers upset here given their road success this year so having the big points - currently 7.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff is certainly a huge value as well. The Panthers are the better team defensively and they will be fired up after losing their most recent road game by 33 points at Wake Forest. Good teams don't forget defeats like that and this Pitt team is strong. Their other two road losses before that were by an average margin of just 6 points apiece. PITTSBURGH (+) |
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02-26-24 | Heat v. Kings -7 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday Sacramento Kings (-) vs Miami Heat @ 10:10 ET - This is a revenge game for the Kings after they lost at Miami 115 to 106 on the final day of January. In that game, Butler and Richardson scored nearly half the points (55) and neither are playing tonight. Also, two other starters - Herro and Rozier - are questionable tonight. Herro had 14 points (plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists) and Rozier had 10 assists in that game. With a much more winnable game tomorrow at Portland and Butler coming back tomorrow, one has to wonder if the Heat might be very conservative with their injury situation here rest Herro and Rozier too. Even if those guys play they are for sure missing Butler and Richardson. I just don't think Miami has enough to hang around here despite the favorable scheduling situation. Yes the Heat have been off and Kings in a B2B after the big divisional win over the Clippers down in LA. However, prior to a 4 point loss in most recent game, 11 of last 12 Miami losses have come by 8 or more points! Those dozen losses by an average of 14 points! So unless you think the very short-handed Heat win this outright, is there really any value in the points? In this case the odds say no and I expect Kings to roll by double digits as they have just too much offense for Miami in this one. The number is currently as low as a 7 as of 16 hours before tipoff! SACRAMENTO (-) |
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02-26-24 | Baylor +2.5 v. TCU | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #889: CBB Monday Baylor Bears (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - The road team has won each of the last 3 meetings. That includes a road win for the Frogs at Baylor in TRIPLE OT four weeks ago. The Bears are out for revenge here and they have won 3 in a row at TCU so being on the road for the rematch is not a big deal. These campuses are less than 100 miles apart. The Horned Frogs have lost 3 of 6 and the 3 wins have come against teams that are a combined 15-27 in Big 12 action this season. Baylor is off an OT loss to a Houston team that is one of the top teams in the country. The Bears are now off tough B2B losses but against tough teams and Baylor had won 5 of 6 prior to that. Also, 3 of those 5 wins were against teams that all are now at least .500 on the season in Big 12 action. In fact, those 3 teams are a combined 59-22 on the season overall. Those 3 wins TCU had were against teams with a combined overall record that is currently 41-40 on the season. I respect the Horned Frogs but love the road trending in these match-ups and the hunger of Baylor coming off that OT loss Saturday! TCU has home losses to Iowa State and Texas already this season and you can add this determined Bears squad to the list after this game goes final. But we will grab the available points - currently 2.5 as of 14 hours before tipoff - just in case though I do not expect to need them. BAYLOR (+) |
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02-25-24 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 225.5 | Top | 92-109 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - I know Trae Young is out for the Hawks but that is why this total is down to as low as a 225.5 as of 9 hours before tipoff. However, did you know that of the 5 games Young has missed this season those games totaled at least 229 four times! The fact is this Hawks team knows only one way to play no matter who is on the floor. This Atlanta team not known for defense and they try to win games with a lethal and quick-strike offensive attack. They know they are catching division rival Orlando here not only in a B2B spot but playing the 3rd game in 4 nights. I look for the Hawks to try and run them right out of of the arena in this one! Yes, Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but they have still allowed an average of 111 points per game last 7 games not including OT scoring of course. Now they face one of the teams in the NBA that tends to get into the highest-scoring games. That said you should be able to safely count on the 120 range here and this line is around a pick'em. In other words this one getting into the 240 range should certainly not be a shock. Hawks games have averaged 245 this season and, as noted above, even when Trae Young is out, the points have still piled up and results have been similar. OVER the total in Atlanta |
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02-25-24 | Purdue v. Michigan OVER 151.5 | Top | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #831: CBB Sunday OVER the total in Michigan Wolverines vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 2 ET - This total in the 151.5 range as of 6 hours before tipoff. The Wolverines will have point guard McDaniel back for this one. Also, they do not have the interior defense to stop Edey. No one does really but the Wolverines are particularly lacking inside. That means he can have a huge day plus when the defense collapses inside to Edey, the phenomenal outside shooting game of Purdue is opened up as well. I could see the Boilermakers defense being a bit lax here. Remember they were off a loss before they faced Rutgers so they gave a little more effort there defensively. But now with Michigan State on deck and with Boilers off a huge bounce back win and now facing the worst team in the Big Ten, this one could be a bit relaxed. The Wolverines will score decently at home but not be able to stop this juggernaut offense. Keep in mind, the Boilers are favored by 14 points. They have averaged in mid-80s this season and why would they not get there against the worst team in the Big Ten. My expectation is they get to 90 which puts this in the 90-75 range. Coincidentally, the Wolverines are scoring 75 ppg this season and so this one getting to mid-160s is certainly possible and we only need to top low 150s to get a winner here! I like our chances! OVER the total in Michigan |
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02-25-24 | Maryland +2.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 63-46 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation#815: CBB Sunday Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a pick'em but is now up to as high as a 2.5 as of 4 and 1/2 hours before tipoff. Of course the markets are all over Rutgers here at home at the low number but why do you think this line was set near a pick'em? Were the odds makers unaware that the Scarlet Knights were at home for this game where they have been strong this season? Of course not! The point is that the odds makers look at this one the same way I do. Maryland is the better team even though they are behind them in the Big Ten standings. This is a revenge game and the Terps get payback for a horrific shooting effort from beyond the arc in the first meeting. Yes Rutgers has a solid defense but so do the Terrapins! Payback game in a chance to move up the Big Ten standings and leapfrog the Scarlet Knights. 10* MARYLAND (+) |
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02-24-24 | Villanova +12 v. Connecticut | Top | 54-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #769: College Basketball Saturday Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in prior write-ups on the Wildcats, they have truly bought into improved defensive play and are doing key aspects of the game well like rebounding well and hustling and forcing turnovers. That, of course, does not mean they beat the #1 team in the nation and defending champion Huskies at Connecticut. But it does mean they hang around in this game and we get key line value here because this line is up near a DOZEN points but when these teams met at Villanova - a 1 point win for Huskies - UConn was a very small favorite. Now they are a little inflated here in my opinion because of coming off the loss. Keep in mind, the Huskies are off a loss which will have many thinking bounce back here but sometimes a team that is so use to winning does not respond as aggressively off a rare loss. After their other two losses this season the Huskies did win their next game each time but by an average of just 7.5 points as a victory margin. The Wildcats have allowed just 55 ppg in their last 5 games! That is not an accident folks, they really have emphasized defense and that won't stop here. Now, of course, the Huskies are a great team but they are over-valued here in a game that will be tight because the Wildcats will continue their tenacious D and they have older players that know how to rise to the occasion in a big game like this. They will not be intimidated. VILLANOVA (+) |
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02-24-24 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -2.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #718: College Basketball: Saturday Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 5:30 ET - The Panthers are in a great spot here. Not only are they off that ugly loss at Wake Forest after winning 5 straight games and 7 of last 8, Pittsburgh also has revenge on their minds here for added motivation. While it may seem like a meaningless game from year ago it is not forgotten. The Panthers were 12-3 and in first place in the ACC at the time and Virginia Tech was just 5-10 but the Hokies got the victory that day. Now Pittsburgh can bounce back at home off the ugly loss plus get revenge for that defeat last year in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is just 1-7 on the road this season. We get line value here with the Panthers because Wake Forest was on fire with their shooting when they blasted Pitt earlier this week. Take advantage of the value here. PITTSBURGH (-) |
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02-24-24 | BYU -115 v. Kansas State | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #639: College Basketball Saturday BYU Cougars (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 2 ET - This line is all the way down to -1 as of about 5 hours before tipoff and this has opened up great line value on the Cougars. BYU is even available as low as -115 on the money line which is the way to play this one as we don't need to worry about covering a spread. The fact is BYU is off a win and they have not had a single standalone win this season. They have won 5 of last 7 games and the Cougars will take advantage of facing a Kansas State team that has lost 7 of 8 games. Yes the Wildcats have the home court edge here but the Cougars are the stronger team and dominated the prior meeting at BYU more than the final margin even indicated. The Cougars are the better shooting team, better rebounding team and also average 5 more assists per game than the Wildcats. The Cougars are the stronger more well-rounded team and we get line value because this game is at Kansas State. We will not hesitate to take advantage. BYU (-) |
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02-23-24 | Hornets v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 84-97 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 10:10 ET - This total is in the 229.5 range as of very early game day morning. We get some value because of the Hornets low-scoring ways long-term. This Charlotte team is playing much better of late and is off a road win at Utah to jump start their 2nd half of the season. The Warriors also off a big win versus the Lakers last night. What I like about the line value with this total here is that both teams scored big last night yet each game stayed under the total. Now they are matched up, loaded with confidence, and it is a non-conference match-up in the 2nd day of a B2B where defensive intensity will not be at its greatest! Note that the Hornets have now won 4 straight games and averaged 116 ppg in this 4-game stretch. Charlotte is about a 14 point dog here so that would put this game at 130-116 if they hit their recent scoring average. But can Warriors really get to 130 here? Yes, it is is not beyond the realm of reality for sure! Golden State is averaging 124 ppg L7 home games - not including OT points of course - and now they face one of the overall weaker teams in the league. Overall, GS is averaging 128 points scored per game last 7 games - home or away. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting 240s here and certainly we should see at least 230s. The Hornets will not want to play fast necessarily but the Warriors, on their home floor, will absolutely force them too. But with Hornets playing with more confidence than usual on the offensive end, they will surprise with scoring well here. OVER the total in Golden State |
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02-23-24 | Kent State v. Akron -7 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (-) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 6 ET - These are nearby rivals and this is always a big game as a result. That said, you might think Kent State is the revenge play here because they lost the most recent meeting at home this season. However, last season Akron had lost its final regular season game (in OT) at Kent State and then also had their season end just a week later when the Golden Flashes knocked the Zips out of the conference tourney! In other words, Akron still views this match-up as including some unfinished business. Also, the Zips are coming off a loss at Toledo which makes this home game extra important in the battle that Akron is in with the Rockets - also playing tonight - for the top spot in the MAC! Kent State is only a .500 team this season and they are a game under .500 in the MAC. Akron is definitely the stronger team and the much better defense and they improve on their 11-2 MAC season record. The Zips have gone a PERFECT 4-0 off a loss ever since that early season 3-game losing streak. Not only that, Akron won all 4 of those games by double digits. Look for the Zips to take that run to 5-0 here with another double digit victory. This line, as of 8 hours before tipoff, is in the 7.5 range and is a strong value here. 10* AKRON (-) |
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02-22-24 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #769: CBB Thursday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Off the upset of the Boilermakers, under normal circumstances, Ohio State should be faded here. However, this is anything but normal circumstances! The Buckeyes have had a down season and so they made a rare late-season coaching change. The assistant that took over here had already been at OSU for a few years plus is a long-time guy in terms of Ohio roots both for him and his entire family. The Buckeyes are showing they want to rally around this and are playing hard. There is a reason this line opened up low and then shot up to 4 but is already back to a 3.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. The sharps see the same thing I am seeing here too. The fact is the Golden Gophers had lost 6 of 9 before their win by double digits over Rutgers and now lets take a look at that victory. The Scarlet Knights actually had 13 more field goal attempts than Minny but they were done in by poor shooting that night while the Gophers were on fire both inside and outside the arc. Rutgers had more points in the paint plus the Golden Gophers had nearly twice as many turnovers. The point is that the box score proves it was a phony final. It is helping to give us some market value here as there was nothing phony about the Buckeyes win over Purdue! Love the fact that OSU had just 6 turnovers in that game too while the Boilermakers had 14. We get solid line value here as many will be playing Minny and the revenge angle here but this Buckeyes team is rejuvenated. OHIO STATE (+) |
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02-22-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -115 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -115 vs New York Knicks @ 7 ET - The Knicks are still without Anunoby and Randle. The Sixers are without Embiid of course but New York down two key players. Unsurprisingly, New York is starting to struggle not having these two guys. The Knicks lost 4 straight before the All-Star break. The Sixers lost at home to Miami before the break but had won 2 straight games - both on the road - prior to that. Now veteran Lowry expected to make his debut in hometown Philly for the 76ers and don't be surprised if the veteran outperforms expectations as he is rejuvenated by being back home and now playing for the Sixers. This is a bargain price on the Sixers as, until the Knicks get healthy again, they are just not the same team that had been streaking red hot. Philly takes advantage of catching rival NY at the right time in the right place! PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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02-22-24 | Rutgers v. Purdue OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #747 CBB Thursday OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - This total is in the 138.5 range as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Note that this total is kept lower because of Rutgers being a strong defensive team. However, the game at Rutgers still totaled 128 when these teams met even though combined for just 9 of 35 from 3-point land. Now, at Purdue and with the Boilermakers angry off a loss, guess who controls the tempo in this one? Exactly! The home team is going to push hard here after the loss at Ohio State. Note that Purdue has scored an average of 91 points this season when off a loss. Those two games were big wins and, overall, the Boilermakers have been scoring big at home all season long. Purdue is averaging 89 ppg (not including OT of course) in their 13 home games this season. Also, Rutgers is expected to lose SU here of course and even though they are strong defensively, look at the numbers they have allowed in losses this season. They have allowed 77 ppg in losses away from home this season. Now they are going to lose away from home to the best team in the country! Of course the Boilers, given all of the above, should get into the 80s here and this line is around 15. Even if it is only an 80-65 type game that puts this in the mid-140s but truly I expect much more given all of the above and this one should blow away the total as the Boilers respond at home! OVER the total in Purdue |
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02-21-24 | Oklahoma State v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #682 CBB Wednesday Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - This one is set up perfect as Oklahoma State off a rare big upset win as they beat BYU this past weekend plus they have a huge revenge game with rival Oklahoma on deck this weekend. Also, the Cowboys are on the road where they are 0-7 SU this season! The average margin of defeat in those games is 14 points! They are now in the wrong place at the wrong time as, even though Cincinnati is off a road win, the Bearcats are not happy at all about their two most recent home games. Those were both losses on their home floor (though they faced two tough ranked teams) and so now the Cats will take out their home court payback on a weak Cowboys team that always struggles away from home. This is a rare case where I have hesitation in laying the big number. Yes this one is a -10 as of 7 hours before tipoff but the Bearcats are destined to roll to a rout in this one. Keep in mind the Cats home schedule in Big 12 has been brutal with facing ranked teams in 6 of 7 games. They take full advantage of a rare reprieve here. CINCINNATI (-) |
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02-21-24 | Illinois -7.5 v. Penn State | Top | 89-90 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #659 CBB Wednesday Illinois Illini (-) at Penn State Nittany Lions @ 6:30 ET - This one is set up perfect as Illinois was favored over the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten tourney last season yet lost. The Illini ended up losing all 3 meetings with Penn State last season. You think Illinois has forgotten something like this? Of course not! Adding to the value here is the Nittany Lions are without Kanye Clary. He was their leading scorer and, arguably, their best player this season. He is gone for the season and will be entering the transfer portal. How did it effect the Lions so far? Well, they went on the road and got blasted at Nebraska in the first game without him again. He had been playing sparingly of late and the result of that was being reflected on the scoreboard as well! When he has played less than 10 minutes or missed a game entirely, the Nittany Lions have lost all 4 games and all defeats were by at least a dozen points! Penn State, overall, enter this game having lost 3 straight. Now they face a revenge-minded Illinois team that has won 7 of 9 games and, schematically, matches up very well with PSU on both ends of the floor. That means I can describe this match-up with two words truly...Road Rout! The line is 7.5 as of 6 hours before tipoff. Lay it! ILLINOIS (-) |