Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The Texans are the overall younger roster with some key position battles going on. The Saints are a more veteran team and already more established in that regard. Also, Houston just got blasted by 25 points last week while the Saints are off another win and are 2-0 in the preseason. Everything sets up well for the road underdog in this battle to be the more motivated team and I expect some of their key personnel to play a little longer when you look at the Texans and compare to New Orleans. This line was in the 3.5 range and has dropped to a 2.5 and for the books to be willing to move past the key number of 3 you know that they are respecting some of the action the Texans have seen in the betting markets. I expect an outright upset here but we will grab the points just in case. This is the final game of the preseason and there have been plenty of underdog upsets and also the points can prove invaluable when you consider that 12 games already in the preseason have been decided by 2 or less points. Grab the points here in the preseason finale and expect an upset or, at the very least, a game decided by the slimmest of margins. 10* HOUSTON +2.5 |
|||||||
08-26-23 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 36.5 in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams @ 9 ET - Yes it is only preseason but perhaps a little extra hunger to get into the win column here? Both teams are 0-2 so far and I think you'll see a good push for points here in this one! I also like the fact this is Denver's only home game in the preseason. The weather will be great and, keep in mind, the field goals can be made from extra distance here in the thin air of Denver. Being preseason and not having to be overly concerned with risk of giving the opponent great field position on a long field goal miss, why not try them? Exactly! So you could see some extra field goals made in this one, some excellent field position on misses, and the points are going to add up in this one. The Rams defense got crushed through the air last week and this was after getting destroyed on the ground the week before. The Broncos offense will be able to pick their poison here and the LA defense will be the victim. However, the Rams offense should enjoy success here too as it is not exactly an accident that Denver is 0-2 so far this preseason. So, given a low total and two teams who might be a little extra aggressive in emphasizing scoring opportunities, look for a solid winner here as both teams score well in this one on a nice evening in Colorado. 10* OVER 36.5 in Denver |
|||||||
08-24-23 | Steelers v. Falcons +5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons + points vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - Currently this line is available as a high as a +5 with the dominant number being +4.5 right now. Simply put, this is a great line value as even a 3 or 4 point loss (both key numbers) would still be a win for Atlanta ATS. Generally speaking, I like fading teams who are off of outright upset wins as an underdog and the Steelers are in that role here. Historically, and Pittsburgh's recent seasons are no exception, teams do not perform well in that role in the preseason. We are getting some extra value here because both of Pittsburgh's wins in this preseason have been by a double digit margin. However, what seems to be ignored here is that the Falcons are allowing an average of only 8 points per game so far in this preseason and Atlanta is undefeated thus far with one win and one tie. No team has allowed fewer points than the Falcons in this preseason plus the Steelers, though undefeated, have allowed twice as many points! I know Pittsburgh has solid depth at QB and this is the final preseason game so depth is important. However, Atlanta also has respectable depth at QB too and I feel the Steelers WR group is very thin on depth too. That said the Falcons absolutely could pull off the upset here and, in my mind, the points are offering a fantastic value here. 10* ATLANTA + points |
|||||||
08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Ravens have won 24 straight preseason games and yet this line is basically a pick'em. This tells me all I need to know here. However, of course we'll give you a little more to chew on with this one! The fact is that neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley will see any time at QB in this one for the Ravens. That means Baltimore will only go with their #3 and #4 guys, Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown, in this one. The Ravens barely snuck by the Eagles last week. The Commanders also got a tight win last week but they seem more motivated this season and more cohesive. A lot has changed with this Washington organization recently and this is a different team this season that wants to set a different standard. They have played 2nd fiddle to the Ravens in the Baltimore/DC region for years now. Even though this is only a preseason game, the fact that the Ravens have won 24 in a row actually could give the Commanders a little extra incentive here. They also are going to be giving more playing time to their stronger QB battles than what Baltimore is. Ravens dealing with just a 3/4 battle because they won't risk Jackson this week and because Huntley tweaked something last week so they won't risk him this week either. I don't believe in trap lines per se but I do believe in further analytics when a line looks a little funny to the masses. That is the case here and, in this case, the 24-game winning streak is primed to end! We'll grab the +1.5 just in case it is another 1-point win for the Ravens but look for an outright win for the home team in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +1.5 |
|||||||
08-19-23 | Titans v. Vikings +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8 ET - The Titans gave up 8 sacks last week. Yes, EIGHT! Keep in mind this was to a Bears team that finished DEAD LAST in the NFL last year for sacks! In other words, this is absolutely concerning. Now, I know this was the back-ups that allowed all that damage but it is back-ups that usually decide preseason games. I think Tennessee is in trouble here on the road. The Vikings are angry off a double digit loss and they have performed well in the past in the preseason when they enter a game off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. Minnesota will be ready here. Also, they are at home and they are catching a few points. I like the fact the Vikings blew a 10 point lead last week too. That insures proper focus here even though this is only a preseason game. Certainly both teams have some things to fix entering this game off losses last week but some things are more fixable than others. The back-up play for the players in the trenches in Tennessee leaves a lot to be desired and won't be fixed in one week. The Vikings have a lot of talent and depth at the WR position and I look for the Vikes to open things up a bit on offense as this game goes on and they will get the win through the aerial attack. I will grab the 2.5 points as added insurance in case they fall just short. 10* MINNESOTA +2.5 |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 7:30 ET - There has been an over-reaction here to the fact Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals and the fact the Falcons will be playing two quarterbacks who are their top two guys and who did not play last week. The key here is that Cincinnati will be mostly playing two quarterbacks that did play last week. Don't be surprised if having already worked out the rust benefits the Bengals QB situation here. Don't be surprised if the Cincy defense is much better this week after they got ram-rodded last week. Note also that the Falcons won 19 to 3 last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards in that game and they punted 5 times. Their opponent actually punted only 2 times in the game but they were done in by turnovers and being stopped on downs a couple times too. So the point is that Cincy is not nearly as bad as the final scored showed last week just like Atlanta is not nearly as good as the final score showed last week. Also, the Bengals may play even better here knowing that an injury to Burrow is NOT being risked. This is just too many points for this particularly preseason match-up. Don't be surprised if we see an outright upset here or a Bengals loss by 4 or less points. In recent seasons, the Falcons have a poor ATS record as a home favorite while the Bengals have been solid as a road dog. This is preseason ATS stuff I am talking about and I look for those trends to continue here. Give me the big points. 10* CINCINNATI +6.5 |
|||||||
08-17-23 | Browns +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 18-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Browns have performed well as a road dog in preseason action and also they have performed well as an underdog when they are facing a team that is below .500 in preseason action. That angle fits here as well as the Eagles are off a 1-point loss last week. I also like the fact that Cleveland is off a loss entering this one. The Browns off a 2-point loss and Philly off a 1-point loss and I am expecting an upset here but like the value of having the points on our side given numbers like this. In case we see another tight finish involving each of these teams, the points could prove very valuable. The Browns won the yardage battle by about 150 yards in the HOF Game and then again by about 100 yards in last week's loss to the Commanders. The point is that this is an underdog that has played quite well thus far in the preseason and the value of getting a FG plus the hook is something I will not pass up on here. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5 |
|||||||
08-12-23 | Eagles +5 v. Ravens | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +5 or +5.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7 ET - Everyone knows the Ravens have been incredible in preseason for many years now. Trust me, everyone means the odds makers too! That said, this line opened up with Baltimore a FG favorite at home. That is totally an enticement to take the Ravens as the implication is that the teams are equal - under preseason standards - and the home team is merely getting their full 3 points as per usual. That said, is this line some massive mistake? Well, long-time followers know how I feel about perceived "mistakes" by the odds makers. That said, the fact the line is now up to a solid 5 and as high as a 5.5 as of gameday morning absolutely has me fading the masses and I am happy to have the additional line value the markets have given us compared to what the odds makers said the line should be. This play is going against the grain per se but, historically, I love plays like this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA +5.5 OR +5 |
|||||||
08-11-23 | Commanders +3 v. Browns | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NFLX Friday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +3 @ Cleveland Browns @ 7:30 ET - Cleveland won the HOF Game versus the Jets and dominated the game statistically. The fact they are at home again (prior game in nearby Canton, OH) and have a game under their belt would seem to favor the Browns here. However, teams actually tend to NOT perform well when off an outright upset win as an underdog and this includes in preseason action and this trend also includes specifically the Browns. That said, plus considering the fact Cleveland has not performed well in recent seasons in pre-season in the home favorite role has me siding with the Commanders here. This is one of those ugly dog spots where most will be lining up with the home favorite yet, historically, it is a great spot to grab the road dog. 10* WASHINGTON |
|||||||
08-28-22 | Giants v. Jets OVER 38 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in New York Jets vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Jets have been giving up a lot of yardage but so too have the Giants. Also the Giants have shown they'll keep slinging the ball around on the field no matter what the situation is and who is on the field. That said, the Jets are expected to play starters more in this one but all I am seeing from this is points. That's because the Jets defense also struggled in that first game of the season against the Eagles in the first half before they rallied for the win. I just do not care for what I have seen from either defense this preseason including almost the entirety of when the back-ups are in. Also there is still a lot of QB evaluation going on here with back-ups so both teams will continue to throw a lot in this preseason finale. Note that each teams first two games have totaled at least 40 points this preseason. Also, their game last preseason was low-scoring but that was week 1. Note that their week 3 games saw the Jets game total 62 points and the Giants game total 42 points. We'll get into the 40s here based on the way these two teams have been playing in this preseason and what I am expecting to see here based on how the teams are approaching this preseason finale. 10* OVER 38 in New York Jets |
|||||||
08-27-22 | Eagles v. Dolphins OVER 37 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* OVER 37 in Miami @ 7 ET - The Dolphins scored only 13 points in last week's loss but it was a deceiving final point tally as they had over 300 yards of passing offense in that one. As for the Eagles, each of their first two games totaled over 40 points and so too did Miami's first game of this preseason. Philadelphia on a 4-1 O/U run in preseason games under their new head coach and the only one that did not go over did see them allow 35 points. In other words, expect plenty of points here because did score an average of 31 points per game in their last 3 preseason home games prior to the low-scoring loss to the Raiders last week. Again, the Dolphins did have solid yardage in that game through the air and I like what they have been doing in terms of the QB rotation in this preseason and ditto for the Eagles. 10* OVER 37 in Miami |
|||||||
08-26-22 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Yes it is preseason. Yes you don't see all the starters. Yes you don't see teams wanting to show their playbook on offense very much either. However, one of the keys to how preseason games play out is a team wanting to win it. In this case I think former Patriots OC, Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels has extra motivation just like his Patriots adversary has here too. That means later in a preseason game where most teams typically are just trying to run the clock and get the game over with, I feel this one plays out much differently. Whoever is trailing will keep pushing to score. Neither wants to lose this game no matter what they have (or would) otherwise say. There is a little extra motivation here and the result will be more points I am sure. Raiders would love to finish preseason 4-0 by knocking off McDaniels former team. Las Vegas gave up more yardage than you would think though in last week's 15-13 win over Miami. Also, the Patriots allowed only 10 points last week but Carolina sat top two QB's. This one plays out differently than the unders these teams just had! 10* OVER 37 in Las Vegas |
|||||||
08-25-22 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 36 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers @ 8 ET - The odds makers opened this one up near 40 and it immediately plummeted and is now down to a 36 as of game day. Personally I love when the betting markets think they know so much more than the smartest people in the room. Who are those guys? The odds makers! That is not to say you can blindly fade every line move. Of course not, but when the situation is right it opens up a wealth of value. This one blew right past the key numbers of 38 and 37 on NFL totals and I am happy to invest on the over 36 here. Both teams playing a slew of back-ups throughout this one. So you really think you are going to see great defense all night long in a case like this? Of course not. Also, Love has looked strong at QB for the Packers thus far in the pre-season. The Chiefs have Henne getting action here and then a good battle for the #3 spot between Buechele and Crum. How will head coach Andy Reid evaluate this QB situation? It certainly will not be by seeing how good these guys are at handing the ball off! The point is there will quite a bit more offense than many expecting here. Note that Green Bay has already scored at least 20 in each game of this preseason but, prior to last week's solid defensive effort, the Packers allowed an average of 24 points per game last 8 preseason games and NEVER allowed less than 19 in any of those 8 games! Over was 6-2 in those 8 preseason games and that trend resumes here. Chiefs 24-14 win last week was 4th straight home preseason game totaling at least 38 points. Those 4 games averaged 47.5 points scored and I fully expect this one to get into the 40s as well. 10* OVER 36 in Kansas City |
|||||||
08-22-22 | Falcons -145 v. Jets | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -145 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
NFLX Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons Money Line -145 @ New York Jets @ 8 ET - You might remember I lost with Eagles in Week 1 when they lost to these Jets as the blew an early 14-0 lead and got outscored 24-7 rest of the way. I got some money back yesterday by fading the Eagles with the Browns +2.5 after Philly let me down in Week 1. We are going to get some more money back today by fading the Jets team that burned me in the comeback last week. Note that New York is now at home where they are just 1-1-1 L3 NFLX and scored just 6 points in the lone win and gave up 59 points in the loss and tie! Jets have solid chance they are going with 3rd and 4th stringers here at QB. Conversely, the Falcons are approaching this game a little more aggressively with a heavier dose of 1st and 2nd stringers. No we may not see much of, if any, Mariota at QB but I really like the compete level Ridder showed last week at QB for Atlanta. So many close games happen in NFLX and I really do not want to lay the 2.5 points here but am comfortable with the money line given all of the above. Falcons seem to be showing a hungry compete level to win and will have their higher level guys in for longer than the Jets in this one. Falcons had a rough preseason last year and seem more focused on developing a winning attitude this year. Even in preseason this holds true and the road team gets the victory as Ridder again gets it done (just like last week) with his arm (2 TDs) and legs (10 ypc on 6 rushes) and the ability to squeeze out a win late. 10* ATLANTA -145 |
|||||||
08-21-22 | Eagles v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The weather is a concern in Cleveland for this one Sunday but hopefully they get this one in even if the start time of the game is delayed. Really like the Browns a lot here as the Eagles recent history of preseason ineptitude continued last week at home when they blew an early 14-0 lead by getting blown out 24-7 the rest of the way. Philly is now just 1-6-1 SU last 8 preseason games. The Browns, on the other hand, are off another preseason win last week and are now 7-1 SU last 8 preseason games. That one loss was by just a single point so, at the current line of +2.5 on this game...Cleveland would be 8-0 ATS last 8 preseason games. Dobbs and Rosen combined for 16 of 20 passing in last week's win for the Browns so the news about QB Watson really does not have any bearing on how a preseason game like this plays out anyway. Also, the Browns defense played well last week with QB pressure (and multiple sacks) plus notching two interceptions. In a potentially ugly-weather game I am happy to back the home dog here. 10* CLEVELAND +2.5 |
|||||||
08-20-22 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 39 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 39 in Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers @ 7 ET - The Vikings 6-2 to the over last 8 NFLX games after last week's 26-20 loss to the Raiders. Vikings have allowed 25 points per game last 4 preseason games. On the others side of the ball I do like the fact that Minnesota picked up over 100 yards on the ground last week at Las Vegas plus had two touchdown passes and no turnovers in the game. The Vikes offense should continue to fare well here against a 49ers defense that was bailed out by some turnovers generated last week because, overall, San Francisco did allow a lot of yardage. In terms of offensive production though, the Niners are looking good with 3 different quarterbacks throwing for a TD last week! Off that 28-21 win, note that SF has now averaged 23 ppg last 8 NFLX games. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting this game to get well into the 40s. 10* OVER 39 in Minnesota |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Texans v. Rams OVER 38 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFLX Friday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans @ 10 ET - Under new head coach Lovie Smith, the Texans are hungrier for the win here. However, hard to trust them to get it in my opinion but what I like here is that the effort will be there. Houston off a low-scoring win last week and that has led to some extra value this week on the over. The Texas threw 3 interceptions last week and I do not expect a repeat of that here. Also, Houston was fortunate to give up only 13 points in that game. I like the fact that Rams QB Perkins had a good game last week and I expect him to come up big again this week. With LA likely to play solid at home (even though it is back-ups) and with having allowed over 300 yards of offense last week and being somewhat fortunate to win (29-22 final), I expect a lot of points here. Texans will get theirs but Rams will hang around in this game too. I feel the side could really go either way but look for some solid scoring here. The high-scoring trending we saw in Week 1 preseason continued even with an under in last night's Bears win at Seattle as that one totaled 38 points and very nearly ended up being a late bad beat for under players but it hung on. The point is that scoring continues to be up and I expect that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 40 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 40 in Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears @ 8 ET - After all the high-scoring games in Week 1 of preseason now your seeing the result in inflated totals this week. That doesn't mean it will be all unders this week for sure but, rather, it just means there is some extra value in certain spots. In my mind, the Thursday night game is one of those! The Bears only allowed 205 yards of offense to the Chiefs last week. Keep in mind their new head coach was a defensive coordinator. They allowed a TD just before half last week or the final could have easily been 19 to 7 instead of 19 to 14 in that game. Also, their 4 scoring drives in the game, all in the 2nd half, averaged just 37.5 yards apiece so it is not like they were moving the ball like crazy on offense in that game. The Seahawks are off a high-scoring loss at Pittsburgh and I look for them to shore some things up on defense after the way that game played out. History is certainly on our side in that regard as Seattle entered last week's game with 6 of last 7 preseason games being unders over the past two preseasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* UNDER 40 in Seattle |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Vikings +5 v. Raiders | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +4.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - This line just too high in my opinion. The Raiders not only being asked to win this game but to win it by a sizable margin. Note that though Vegas won last week in the HOF Game that was against a dreadful Jaguars team that has now been outscored 51 to 24 in two preseason games this season and has lost 8 of last 9 preseason games. Now Raiders laying sizable points against a Vikings team that has seen its last 7 games feature only 1 game that was a loss by more than 4 points for them. Vegas head coach McDaniels came from a Patriots organization use to winning. Feel certain there is a little more hunger for the younger O'Connell here a little more eager. He came from the Rams organization but prior to that was mired in the Washington organization. I feel he and the Vikes are being undervalued here. 10* MINNESOTA +4.5 |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Panthers v. Washington Commanders OVER 37 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Washington Commanders vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - The QB play here should key an over. Excellent QB rotations for a preseason game and that should help push this one way over. I like the QB situation for both Carolina (now with Mayfield added) and Washington (Wentz expected to play) and plenty of talent behind these guys read to battle it out. The Commanders have allowed 23 points per game in last 4 preseason games and Carolina has allowed at least 19 points in 4 of last 6 preseason games. Look for this one to get into the 40s as we see some strong quarterback play throughout. Really each team is 3-deep with solid talent at the QB position. Like this factor plus the fact we have seen the games trending to high-scoring so far in this pre-season. More of the same here. 10* OVER 37 in Washington |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Jets v. Eagles +110 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +110 @ New York Jets @ 7:30 ET - The spread on this game is a pick'em and as of very early gameday morning you can even find some even money and plus money on the money line with the home team Eagles here. I like the value here. This is the only home game that Philly has in the preseason. They are the better team and the deeper team. Yes this is preseason but the Eagles depth and overall team quality will shine through and I think they want to get a win here at home. Philly will not be home again until September 19th when, in week 2 of regular season, they host the Vikings. Again, this is only preseason but I expect a strong effort from the deeper team. The Jets were horrid as the season went on last year and ended up dead last in defensive categories and nearly dead last on offense too. New York is just a very bad team and the Eagles tied them last year and lost 6-0 the year before (in pre-season games) and they will get a little pre-season revenge this year. Those games were in New York and now they meet in Philly and the 3rd time is the charm. 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
|||||||
08-11-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - It is a new year. Just like we saw the Hall of Fame Game go over the total after a history of being dominated by unders, there is a changing of the guard underway. The Ravens have long been known for preseason success as coach John Harbaugh has shown a hunger to win even in the games that do not count. However, this Baltimore team is not what it once was and, even if the Ravens win this game, I expect the margin of victory to be 3 or less points. Note that Baltimore has been a good team for many years in regular season too for sure, not just preseason. But last year they had an 8-9 SU record in the regular season and went 2-9 ATS as a favorite! The Titans went 12-5 SU last season and are now 23-10 SU last two regular seasons SU. As for ATS records, Tennessee went 6-1 ATS as an underdog last season and is now 9-2 ATS the last seasons as an underdog. Again, this is OF COURSE not a regular season game but I see value here with a high quality team catching more than a field goal against a team trending the wrong direction that is over-valued because of past pre-season successes. Like I said in the lead-in for this one, it is a new year! Don't get me wrong, Ravens still a high-quality team but so too are Titans and big value with the points here in my opinion. 10* TENNESSEE +3.5 |
|||||||
08-04-22 | Raiders v. Jaguars OVER 30.5 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 30.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8 ET in HOF Game in Canton, OH - This is a road game for both teams of course because it is a neutral site game. Note that last pre-season saw the Raiders two road games both total at least 33 points. 2020 there was no preseason. 2019, the Raiders had two road games and a neutral site game. All 3 of those games away from home totaled at least 32 points. So this is a 5-0 situation for Las Vegas in terms of NFLX games away from home totaling at least 32 points. As for the Jaguars, both their road preseason games (and their home game for that matter) all totaled at least 36 points with the two roadies both totaling at least 34 points! So the point is that we have a double perfect situation here with 5-0 L5 for the Raiders and a 3-0 L3 for Jacksonville. This one gets to at least 32 (but I expect much more) and yet we are working with a total of only 30.5 points because of the reputation of the HOF game to be a low-scoring grinder. This total has ended up too low in the markets in my opinion. Keep in mind, each team has new head coaches and Pederson is an offensive-minded coach and former NFL QB and McDaniels was the offensive coordinator of the Patriots for more than a decade. No matter who is on the field here, yes a lot of unknowns, there will be more offense than most are expecting given all of the above. Keep in mind, Jags have allowed 24 points per game last 7 NFLX and Raiders allowed 23 points per game L5 NFLX non-home games. 10* OVER 30.5 in Hall of Fame Game |
|||||||
08-29-21 | Jaguars v. Cowboys OVER 36 | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #125 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have a battle going on for the #2 QB spot behind Dak Prescott. Now that Prescott has been pronounced fit for week one of the regular season, that means Gilbert and Rush will definitely be fully turned loose in this game to battle it out in this contest. Considering they are up against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 23 points in each game thus far, I like our chances for plenty of Cowboys points here. Both of these teams are winless on the preseason and that is even with Dallas having already played 3 games thus far. I don't think either team will hold back in going for the win here no matter that it is a preseason game. As for the Jaguars QB situation, of course we may not see starter Trevor Lawrence in this one but CJ Beathard has been solid for the Jags in the preseason. In fact, other than the 2 picks thrown by Gardner Minshew (now traded away to Eagles), take a look at the Jags other QB numbers: 50 of 75 for 443 yards and 4 TDs and no INTs. Considering that as well as a very aggressive effort from the Cowboys QBs in this one I am expecting a high-scoring contest here. 10* OVER 36 in Dallas |
|||||||
08-23-21 | Jaguars +4 v. Saints | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +4 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The more I looked at this game the more I liked it. The Jaguars have a bad recent preseason history but keep in mind they now have a new coach with Urban Meyer calling the shots. This team is hungry to improve and they certainly played a "cleaner" game last week than the Saints did. Yes both teams are off losses but Jacksonville turned the ball over just once while New Orleans had 6 turnovers in their game against the Ravens. The overall trajectory of these teams is going opposite directions. Of course I am not saying that in a regular season game the Jags are better than the Saints. I am not saying that all. But the point is that the Saints were 12-4 last season but Drew Brees has retired and this team lost a lot of defensive talent from last year's roster. This team will be on the decline this season. As for the Jaguars, off a 1-15 season, of course the only way to go is up but truly this team could be respectable this season and had a strong draft and there is some positive energy within this Jacksonville organization right now. With how sloppy New Orleans was last week, I feel we have a good shot at an outright upset here for the Jaguars and I certainly like the value with the points. Keep in mind, we have seen a good amount of upsets in week 2 of the preseason as well as some underdog ATS covers without notching the upset. Good value here getting a handful of points given all of the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE +4 |