Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-24 | Lions +7 v. 49ers | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 147 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DET. The Lions are coming off back to back wins, and plenty of momentum with a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Their defense has been suspect, but perhaps in a "bend don't break" fashion. The 49ers on the other hand got quite lucky that the Green Bay Packers missed a key field goal last week. Brock Purdy appeared to struggle at times, and the young QB is facing more pressure than he's ever faced. Jared Goff has been here before, and he's looked pretty solid throwing for 564 yards, three TDs on 74 percent passing in this post-season. I expect Detroit to get their share of points, and at least hang with San Francisco. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +7 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. The Lions are in a tough spot here. They are so hyped up, the talk of the town and a huge home favorite in this divisional playoff matchup versus Tampa. I think you have to ask yourself though, what makes Detroit a favorite. It surely can't be the coaching matchup between Todd Bowles and Dan Campbell? You can't tell me that the Lions defense is better than the Bucs. Maybe Lions fans believe Jared Goff is superior to Baker Mayfield. The numbers don't really back that up, with Goff throwing for two more TDs and two more picks. Goff has just a slight advantage in yardage and completion percentage. This looks like a let down spot for Detroit, and even at their best I don't believe they are seven points better than Tampa. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-20-24 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | 10-34 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on HOU. This is more of a play against Baltimore than it is an endorsement of CJ Stroud and the Texans. The fact of the matter is that Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in his career in the Playoffs, and has thrown more picks (5) than TDs (3) in those games. The Ravens are coming off a first round bye, and they rested the starters in the final week of the regular season. This strategy might backfire here against a hot Houston team. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +3 | Top | 9-32 | Win | 100 | 94 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TB. The Eagles are a complete mess, coming into the playoffs as losers of five of their last six. Jalen Hurts appears to be battling injuries, and he's thrown more picks (5) than touchdowns (4) over his last five starts. No AJ Brown for the Eagles, and the defense is banged up on the back end. They might even have to move a corner to safety if Blankenship can't go. The Bucs defense is 100 percent healthy, and Baker Mayfield will play despite a sore ankle and bruised ribs. This looks like a case of the wrong team favored, and I'll take the home dog plus the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAR. The Rams are peaking at the right time, coming into the playoffs as winners of seven of their last eight. The one loss during that span came in OT on the road at Baltimore. The Rams offense is humming with former Detroit Lion Mathew Stafford at QB. Stafford has a Super Bowl ring, McVay is the youngest head coach to make a Super Bowl and the youngest to win a Super Bowl. Cooper Kupp owns a Super Bowl MVP trophy. The Lions had a fantastic season, but they were more impressive in the first half of the season than they have been in the second half. Last week they played their starters, and that might prove to be costly if LaPorta can't play Sunday. The Rams have the edge at quarterback and superior coaching, I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-07-24 | Rams +3.5 v. 49ers | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 158 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAR. Both teams will rest starters, I'll take the dog getting points. Carson Wentz has an opportunity to show what he can do against the San Francisco backups. Last year the Rams lost in overtime 19-16 at Seattle in Week 18. This game has a similar feel to it. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns -5.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Cleveland. The Jets are coming off a dubious 30-28 home win over Washington. They blew a 20-0 lead, but hit the game winning 54 yard field goal in the final seconds. Trevor Siemian threw for 217 yards on 27-of-49 passing against the NFL's worst defense. Now the Jets are on the road on a short week, and they face the NFL's top pass defense. The Browns are on a roll since the arrival of Joe Flacco, who threw for 368 yards and three TDs in a win at Houston on Sunday. The Browns are 7-1 at home this season, and the Jets have failed to cover in three straight road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -5 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 188 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF. A lot of people are picking these two teams to meet in the Super Bowl, but the Ravens appear to be a team due for some regression. San Francisco had it's three game losing skid in the middle of the season, but since then they appear to have forgotten how to lose. The Niners have covered in six straight, and they are 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games. This looks like a good spot to fade the Ravens. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-24-23 | Patriots v. Broncos -5.5 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 163 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Denver. The 3-11 Patriots are likely going to find it tough to get up for a Christmas Even game on the road in Denver. This team has nine starters listed as questionable just 48 hrs prior to the game. We know there will be a wholesale change over the off-season, and we don't expect the compete level to be very high in these final few games. This is a Denver team that can still make the playoffs, but they need to win this game. Russell Wilson has thrown for 1,382 yards, 13 TDs and just one INT at home this season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-24-23 | Colts +1.5 v. Falcons | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 165 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on INDY. Gardiner Minshew threw for 215 yards and three TDs on 18-of-28 passing in a win over the Steelers last week. Indy is actually 8-4 in the games that Minshew has started or played the majority of the snaps. While the Colts are in good shape at QB, the Falcons have benched their starter. Now Heinicke might not be much of a drop off, but he's proven he isn't much of a difference maker either. The Colts won both meetings last year, and they come into Atlanta as the better team playing better ball. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-18-23 | Eagles -3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 176 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI. What happened to the 10-1 Eagles? They are now the 10-3 Eagles after losing back to back blowouts versus San Francisco and Dallas. The good news is that they aren't playing the Niners or the Cowboys this week, and this looks like a potential "GET RIGHT" game for Philly. The Seahawks have lost four of their last five overall, and Geno Smith is banged up. Drew Lock came in and threw for 269 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs in the loss at San Francisco last Sunday. Lock has thrown as many picks (20) as he has TDs over his last three seasons. Smith has a groin injury that normally requires at least two weeks to heal, so even if he can play he would likely be limited. **UPDATE** - so we are now less than 18 hrs from kickoff and we still have no clarification on Geno Smith, and breaking news that Jalen Hurts might not play due to illness. If it is Marcus Mariotta, note that his last game at Seattle he threw for 229 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT on 13-of-20 passing in a win with the Falcons last year. He also scored a rushing TD in the win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-03-23 | Broncos +3 v. Texans | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 155 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DEN. I bet against Houston last week, saying I expected some regression to the mean. The fact that they went down to the wire with the Jags likely means they are still a real public team, and I am not sold on the Texans as a favorite. They lost LG Tytus Howard with a knee injury on Sunday, and it turned out to be significant as CJ Stroud was sacked twice on the final series. The Texans also have a kicker who has never hit a field goal of 50+ yards, and he missed twice last week. Denver is a role, and Russell Wilson looks like the guy that the Broncos thought they were getting when they made the trade with Seattle. The Broncos have rattled off five straight wins, and three of those games were decided by three points or less. Two of Denver's five losses have come by three points or less. I'll take the hot team plus the points here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-03-23 | Cardinals v. Steelers -5.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 26 m | Show | |
7* |
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12-03-23 | Falcons v. Jets +3 | 13-8 | Loss | -118 | 104 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a free play on NYJ. The Jets offense is bad, and yeah they don't have a QB. They still have twice as many home wins as Atlanta has on the road. Yet the dome team comes into The Meadowlands in December as a favorite. If you are hanging your hat on having the better QB, you might be disappointed with Desmond Ridder going up against one of the NFL's best defenses in the bitter cold in New York. I'll take the dog, I'll take the points with the J E T S .... Jets! Jets! Jets! GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos +3 | Top | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 269 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Denver. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DET. The Lions fell victim to Murphy's Law on Sunday, turning the ball fourr four times and losing time of possession by 40:24 to 19:36. This happens to even good teams, but only great teams are able to overcome all that and come away with a win. This sets up the Lions for a strong performance here against the Packers on Thanksgiving. This looks like a terrible spot for Green Bay, who had to sign a couple backs off the practice squad after losing two of their top three running backs last week. In fact all three of their running backs on the depth chart are listed in the injury report, and Aaron Jones is doubtful. Additionally there are four defensive starters listed as questionable and another offensive lineman is banged up. This just looks like a let down spot for the Packers coming off a home win over LA last week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-23 | Cardinals v. Browns -7.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CLE. The Arizona Cardinals are tanking, and they couldn't make it anymore obvious. They traded their QB to Minnesota, leaving them with an inexperienced rookie (Clayton Tune) as #1 on the depth chart. Tune was a long shot to make an NFL roster, and he didn't exactly light it up during the pre-season. Now he faces the NFL's top ranked defense on the road at Cleveland. The return of Deshaun Watson may or may not help, but I think the Browns defense will do enough to get the win and cover here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-29-23 | Bengals +5.5 v. 49ers | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CIN. So the Bengals came into this season expecting to be a contender, but Joe Burrow was clearly not healthy and they have been one of the biggest disappointments. Coming off a bye week, and Burrow proclaiming he is now at 100 percent, this looks like a good spot to back the Bengals s a dog. The 49ERS are coming off back to back losses, ravaged by injuries, and with the news that Brock Purdy has cleared concussion protocol the line has ticked up to +5.5. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +6 v. Chiefs | 17-31 | Loss | -112 | 131 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chargers have lost six of the last eight meetings versus KC, but they have covered the spread in seven of those games. Last year they lost by a field goal in both meetings, at home and at Kansas City. They are 2-3 this season and all three of their losses have come by a field goal. The Chiefs offense has not been quite as prolific this season, averaging just 24 points per game. I'll take the points as I am expecting another close game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 185 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAC. This looks like a good spot to back a Chargers team that has underachieved so far. Dallas comes in as a road favorite, but the shine is starting to wear off. The Cowboys have lost back to back road games to Arizona and San Francisco. Their wins don't look all that impressive either, beating the Jets, Giants and Patriots. While Dallas is trending down, the Chargers are trending up coming off back to back wins over the Raiders and the Vikings. They lost to Miami in week 1 by just two points, and on the road at Tennessee by a field goal. I'll take the points with the home dog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | 20-6 | Loss | -116 | 157 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. The Bucs are 3-1, in first place in the NFC South, and their only loss came against the defending NFC champs Philadelphia. As good as they have looked, they are still getting points as a home dog against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are 4-1, and they have looked good so far. I still think it's a bit much to have them coming in as a road favorite against a 1st place team. Jared Goff is off to a good start after having a solid season last year. One thing that has carried over, is that his home/away splits remain dramatic. Last year he had 23 TDs and home and just six on the road, this year he has 6 TDs at home and two on the road. The Bucs boast a Top 10 defense, and they should be in this game from start to finish. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-23 | Colts +5.5 v. Jaguars | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 161 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on INDY. The Colts are tied for first place in the NFC South, but the winner of this week's game at Jacksonville will take sole possession of the top spot in the division. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson is on the IR, leaving Minshew Mania to run the offense. I think Indy is in better shape with Minshew, who is a more proven commodity in the NFL. So far this season the Colts are 3-0 in games that Minshew has played the majority of the snaps, and 0-2 in the games with Richardson at the helm. The Jags are in a let down spot coming off back to back wins in London. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins -13.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 154 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Dolphins lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 36 points per game. They host the winless Carolina Panthers, and Carolina ranks 28th in scoring defense allowing 29 points per game. Bryce Young is perhaps biting off more than he can chew as a rookie starter on a poor team. The last time the Dolphins played Carolina they won by a score of 31-10, and there's no reason to expect a competitive game here in Miami this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on GB. The Packers will be on the road at Las Vegas, and they are the underdog in this matchup. Green Bay has the advantage of coming off a long week with extra time to prepare, and should be a lot healthier than they were when the lost to the Lions in Week 4, that isn't the only advantage. The Packers are in good shape with Jordan Love at QB, he's thrown for 901 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs while Jimmy G has thrown more picks (6) than TDs (5). Playing his first game back coming off a concussion looks like a tough spot for Jimmy G and the Raiders. The books have the wrong team favored here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-23 | Jets +3 v. Broncos | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 159 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYJ. The Broncos shouldn't be a favorite against anybody.The Bears were up big in the 4th quarter last week, but they handed Denver the game. They gave up a fumble recovery for a TD, turned the ball over on downs in field goal range and Justin Fields threw an interception on the Bears final possession. Not even Zach Wilson could eff up a game that bad! At least the Jets can play defense. An ugly and undeserving win over the Bears doesn't in any way convince me that the players are buying into what Sean Payton is selling in Denver. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-23 | Giants v. Dolphins -9 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 157 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Dolphins scored 70 in their last home game, and then got humbled in a blowout loss at Buffalo. This is a good bounce back spot for The Fish back home against a banged up Giants team on short rest. No way Vanilla Vick and the GMEM are gonna be able to keep up to Tua, Tyreek and the Dolphins #1 ranked offense. Bet this game quick because the number will likely get bet up before Sunday. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-23 | Raiders v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 154 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on LAC. The 1-2 Chargers are a small home favorite against the 1-2 Raiders. Clearly the Chargers have a huge edge at QB with Justin Herbert versus Jimmy G. The Chargers have been more effective running the ball, and we should see Austin Ekeler back this week. Neither team has been great defensively but it's tough to see the Raiders keeping up in a shootout. LV was just 2-7 on the road last season, including a 24-19 loss at LA. Keep in mind the Raiders only win came by just 1-point against an 0-3 team that gave up 70 points last week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-23 | Panthers v. Seahawks -4.5 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SEA. This looks like a short line for a team playing on the road on a short week with a rookie QB. Geno Smith has plenty of weapons, and he threw for 328 yards and a pair of TDs on 32-of-41 passing in a road win at Detroit last week. Bryce Young hasn't impressed, throwing for as many INTs (2) as TDs so far. He's only averaging 4.2 yards per attempt, and he ranks 31st in the league in passing. I'll fade the rookie on the road here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-23 | Broncos v. Dolphins -6.5 | 20-70 | Win | 100 | 145 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. A new coach, but the same old problems persist in Denver. The 0-2 Broncos have blown leads late in back to back home losses, and now they play their first road game at Miami. The Dolphins offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking #1 in the NFL in passing and #3 in scoring. I am not ready to buy into all the hype surrounding Tua and Miami, but asking them to beat a bad team by just a TD in their home opener seems like a bargain. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-23 | Colts +8 v. Ravens | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Ravens. While the Colts rookie QB is questionable with a concussion (as of Tuesday), but there is an argument that they are better off with the more experienced Gardner Minshew running the offense. Minshew came in and threw for 171 yards and a TD on 19-of-23 passing in last week's loss to Houston The Ravens injury concerns might be more significant. Baltimore has already lost a pair of starters on the offensive line, and safety Marcus Williams and corner Marlon Humphrey are listed as out. The last time the Colts played at Baltimore they lost in overtime, covering as a 7.5 point underdog. The Colts are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-23 | Giants -5.5 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYG. The Giants were supposed to be trending in the right direction, but Daniel Jones got picked off twice and was sacked seven times in a 40-0 home loss to the Cowboys in Week 1. The Giants lost the turnover battle 3-0, and bad weather and bad breaks played a roll in the result. Arizona on the other hand actually looked competitive in a 20-16 loss to Washington. Josh Dobbs threw for 132 yards on 21-of-30 passing with no TDs and no INTs. Dobbs is not a QB1 in the league, unless of course your franchise is tanking (hint hint). I am giving the Giants a pass for their poor showing in Week 1, and we do expect them to bounce back here in Week 2. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +3 | 30-7 | Loss | -125 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PIT. The 49ers have question marks at the quarterback position. They played quarterback roulette last season, and when the wheel stopped spinning it was Brock Purdy who took over running the offense. Purdy played in nine games last year, throwing for 1,374 yards, 13 TDs and 4 INTs. Purdy has a tough matchup in Week 1 on the road at Pittsburgh. The Steelers were 9-7-1 last season, extending Mike Tomlin's NFL record to 16 consecutive seasons without a losing record. They were 8-2 in games that TJ Watt played, and they were 6-2-1 at home. It's easy to look at what San Francisco did last year and assume they are the better team. I think it would be a mistake to do so, as this is a new season and everybody starts with a clean slate. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 1487 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE. So the Bengals lost at Cleveland last year, which is nothing new. They have lost five straight at Cleveland, and the Browns are 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings. The bookmakers have the Bengals favored here, despite the fact that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Browns still have the #2 ranked offensive line in the NFL according to PFF, and their QB situation should be better in 2023. Joe Burrow was sacked five times in last years loss at Cleveland, throwing for 232 yards with two TDs and an INT. The offensive line is still a concern for Cincinnati, and this figures to be a difficult matchup. I think the wrong team is favored here and I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs +2 v. Eagles | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 160 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 4* play on KC. The public is definitely backing Philly in the Super Bowl, with 66% of the tickets on the Eagles. There is no doubt that they have been the better team in the post-season. Philly should be able to control the line of scrimmage with superior and offensive and defensive line play. The thing is, that with two weeks to prepare for this game, a Hall of Fame coach like Andy Reid should be able to game plan and scheme to minimize that advantage. There's something to be said for experience, and the Chiefs have been here before. Kansas City knows what to expect, how to handle the media and everything leading up to the game. I am going to take a contrarian approach and go with the more experienced team with the superior quarterback. GL, Jesse Schule SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD. |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BUF. The Bengals are coming off a home win over Baltimore, in a game that they were out-gained by 130 yards. The Ravens were on the goal line about to score a go-ahead TD, when the Bengals returned a fumble that would end up being the game winning score. The Bills also won a close game last week, failing to cover against the Dolphins. They actually out-gained Miami by almost 200 yards. Cincinnati has to be concerned about their banged up offensive line. They ranked 25th in the NFL in sacks allowed during the regular season, while Buffalo ranked in the Top 10 in QB sacks. The Bills are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles -7.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 107 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on PHI. The Giants were impressive in their upset win over the Vikings, but it's going to be a completely different matchup on the road in Philly this week. These teams played twice during the regular season, and Philly outscored New York 40-7 in the first half of those two games. Philly ran for 254 yards and four TDs in a 48-22 win at New York in December. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five Divisional Playoffs games, and well rested I expect them to roll in the first half here against the Giants. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -6.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Bengals. Money keeps coming in on the Bengals, and for good reason. We don't expect Lamar Jackson to play, and even if he does he would coming in without any game action in months and no time at practice. Anthony Brown threw for 286 yards and two INTs on 19-of-44 passing in last week's loss to the Bengals. The Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC North, and they have failed to cover in four straight versus the Bengals. The Bengals are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings -3 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIN. The Vikings won 13 games this season, but they don't get a lot of respect from bookmakers. The Bills and the 49ers both won 13 games, and they are each double digits favorites in their Wild Card Games. Kirk Cousins threw for more yards than Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, but he continues to get no respect. The Giants won just three of their last 10 games, sneaking in the back door to make the playoffs. The favorite has covered in six of the last seven meetings, and the Giants have lost four straight to the Vikings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-07-23 | Titans v. Jaguars -6 | 16-20 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Jags . With Josh Dobbs starting at QB for the Titans, I think they are in big trouble here in the AFC South Title Game. The Jags are on a roll, coming off four consecutive wins. The streak started with a 36-22 win at Tennessee. Trevor Lawrence threw for 368 yards and three TDs on 30-of-42 passing in the victory. He will face a Titans defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in passing TDs allowed. Josh Dobbs faces a Jags defense that has allowed just six points in the last two weeks. Asking Derrick Henry to carry the load hasn't been an effective strategy lately, and at the end of the year that kind of workload takes it's toll (remember last year). GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-23 | Rams v. Chargers -6.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LA Chargers. The Rams scored 51 points in a blowout win over the Broncos last week. Baker Mayfield threw for 238 yards and a pair of TDs on 24-of-28 passing. That's great, but they ain't playing the Broncos this week. This looks like a huge let down spot on the road at LA. Only one of these teams is going to the playoffs, and it ain't the Rams. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win, and they are 1-5 on the road this season. This should be a reality check for the Rams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-22 | Bucs -7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Tampa. As bad as things appear to be in Tampa Bay, the Bucs are still the favorite to win the NFC South. This team still has plenty to play for, while it looks like the Arizona Cardinals will be waiving a white flag here this week. Arizona officially eliminated from the post-season, and down to their third string QB. Trace McSorley has thrown for 166 yards and three INTs on just over 50 percent passing in limited action this year. Given the QB situation, it's hard to see the rest of the team being too invested in this meaningless game. Expecting the Cardinals offense to struggle to move the chains, that should lead to more possessions for Brady and company. Despite the loss, Brady threw for 312 yards and three TDs last week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins -4.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 2* play on MIA. |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on NYJ. So the Jets lost at home to the Lions last week, but it wasn't Zach Wilson's fault. He threw for 317 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 18-of-35 passing. He doesn't play defense, so you can't blame him for the 51 yard game winning TD Detroit scored with under two minutes to play. The Jets host Jacksonville on Thursday, and this looks like one helluva let down spot for the Jags. They rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to force overtime against the Cowboys, going on to win the game on an INT return. The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Jets are 6-0 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Buffalo. This is a revenge game for Buffalo, as they lost 21-19 in Miami earlier this season. The Bills had the edge in total yards 497-212, but managed to make enough mistakes to lose the game. On a snowy day in Buffalo, it's worth pointing out that revenge is a dish best served cold. The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Buffalo, and the Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chargers have been great as an underdog, they have consistently shown that they can battle back to stay in games and keep it close even when they lose. Justin Herbert is 4th in the NFL in passing despite his top WR only playing five games, his #2 WR missing four games, and playing through a series rib injury. Their offense comes into tonight's game as healthy as it has been all year, and they line up against a Dolphins team that might be still reeling after getting run over by San Francisco. The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | 48-22 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYG. The Eagles own the best record in the NFL, but they are asked to cover a big spread in a divisional road game in bad weather this week. History tells us that the home team has won outright in six of the last seven head to head meetings. The Eagles have only covered in one of their last seven road games, and the Giants have covered in four of their last five home games. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-27-22 | Packers v. Eagles -6.5 | 33-40 | Win | 100 | 154 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Philly. The Packers have lost six of their last seven games, and they will not be going to the playoffs. If there was ever a time to pack it in, and give up on the season, this is it. Aaron Rodgers has not only played poorly, he's blamed everyone else around him. The Eagles are 9-1, and six of those nine wins came by more than seven points. Philly has an NFL best 18 rushing TDs this season, and they rank 5th in the NFL in total offense. With Rodgers playing hurt with a broken thumb, this game could get out of hand and we could see Jordan Love at some point. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on LA Chargers. There is history here between these division rivals, and recent meetings have been great games going down to the wire. Justin Herbert threw for 334 yards 3TDs, 1 INT on 33-of-48 passing in a 27-24 loss at Kansas City earlier this year. Last year he threw for 517 yards, 6 TDs and 1 INT on 48-of-76 passing in two games against the Chiefs last year. Kansas City has only covered in one of their last six head to head meetings versus the Chargers, and that win came in overtime 34-28 last December in LA. We could see Keenan Allen and Mike Williams return this week. That would be a huge boost for Justin Herbert. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-03-22 | Eagles -13 v. Texans | 29-17 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on the Eagles. The Texans have just one win in their first seven games, despite being perhaps more competitive than expected. The trade deadline is a turning point for teams like Houston though, and we can expect them to fold like a cheap suit in the second half of the season. Disgruntled WR Brandin Cooks is listed as questionable, after he made comments about "covering up lies" when he wasn't traded at the deadline. Houston has by far the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing over 186 rush yards per game. The Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins -7 | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on MIA. The Dolphins were on a roll before Tua got hurt, and they get their QB back this week. A home game against the Steelers looks like a favorable spot for Tua and the Dolphins. The Steelers are due for a let down after a home upset win over Tom Brady and the Bucs. The Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight road games. The Dolphins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a losing road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-23-22 | Texans v. Raiders -7 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 87 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on the Raiders. The Texans are coming off a win over Jacksonville, their only win this season. A closer look at that game reveals that they were quite fortunate. They were out-gained 422-248 in total yards, and they benefited from a pair of Trevor Lawrence interceptions. The Raiders have struggled early in the season, but Derek Carr and Davante Adams are starting to click. Adams has a dozen catches for 225 yards and a pair of TDs in his last two starts. Josh Jacobs has run for 298 yards and three TDs in his last two starts. Coming off a bye week, and facing a Texans team that ranks near the bottom of the league allowing over 160 rushing yards per game should bode well for Jacobs and the Raiders. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens -6 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off an ugly loss on the road at New York, but they've been alternating wins and losses all year. They have a favorable matchup this week, hosting a banged up Cleveland Browns team. Both these teams struggle on defense, but the Ravens struggle against the pass while the Browns struggle against the run. That's bad news for a one-dimensional Cleveland offense that is heavily dependent on the running game. The Ravens on the other hand should be able to take advantage of the Browns poor run defense. The Browns are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games in October, and they have failed to cover in five straight against the Ravens. TheRavens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -4 | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAC. This matchup features two of the most controversial head coaches in the NFL, but Brandon Staley has more talent to work with. Justin Herbert has thrown for 1,478 yards with 10 TDs and just two picks, and he's likely due for a strong performance three weeks after suffering a rib injury. Russell Wilson is still banged up with a sore shoulder, and he's struggled all season long. The Broncos have failed to cover in five straight road games, and they were lit up by the Raiders in their most recent road game. The home team has covered in five straight head to head meetings, give me LA all day! GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Eagles | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 160 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DAL. I had the Cowboys as the underdog last week, and bet against the Eagles as a favorite. That worked out well, and I am going right back with the same strategy again this week. Here is what I said over a week ago: "The Eagles are flying high, but they will come crashing back down to earth at some point. They are asked to cover a big number here.." "The betting public might well view this week's home game against the Cowboys as a good bounce back spot for the champs. It's not really a great matchup for a struggling QB (Stafford) who has two more INTs than he does TDs. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks Top 5 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171 yards per game." The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Philadelphia. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts -1 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 153 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. The Jags beat the Colts 24-0 earlier this season, and for whatever reason Jacksonville just seems to have their number. The Jags have covered in six straight, and nine of the last 10 head to head meetings dating all the way back to 2016. But as my good friend Lee Corso would say: "not so fast my friend". The home team is 10-0 straight up during that span. While the Colts failed to cover in all but one of their four home wins over Jacksonville, the average margin of victory in those games was over 10 points. Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, and that could change everything. Given Matt Ryan's struggles, we shouldn't be asking him to do too much. Meanwhile Trevor Lawrence threw for 286 yards and a pair of INTs on 25-of-47 passing in a loss to the Texans last week. The Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven on the road. I'll take the home team just to win straight up. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on LV. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 54 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CIN. When the bookmakers tell you that the Ravens are favored by more than a field goal here, they might as well be saying "don't believe you're lying eyes". Forget about the fact that they rank dead last in the NFL against the pass, and their struggling secondary could be without Marcus Peters this week. Never mind that the Bengals swept the season series last year. Well I ain't buying it. The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and they have covered in six of their last seven road games. Cinci looks like the better team at the moment, and I expect them to win this game OUTRIGHT! GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DAL. The Rams are the defending champs, coming off an ugly loss on the road at San Francisco. The betting public might well view this week's home game against the Cowboys as a good bounce back spot for the champs. It's not really a great matchup for a struggling QB (Stafford) who has two more INTs than he does TDs. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks Top 5 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171 yards per game. Stafford is playing behind an offensive line in shambles, and he's failed to connect with any WR not named Cooper Kupp. The visitors may have their backup QB under center, but he's undefeated in four career starts. I'll take the points here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins v. Jets +6 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 230 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Jets. The Dolphins come into New York as the favorite, asked to cover points despite missing their starting QB and potentially a handful of key position players. After going undefeated in the pre-season, the Jets are off to a rather dubious 2-2 start. Both their wins have come on the road, and both the result of improbable fourth quarter comebacks. Lets not kid ourselves and confuse these Jets with what you can consider a "good" football team. The fact is these kids have some momentum, and plenty of reason to believe that they are never out of it. That can be a dangerous thing when they are a home dog against a banged up road favorite with so many distractions. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 43 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Colts. Indy was favored to win the AFC South heading into the season, but after winning just one of their first four games they are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far. So what went wrong? Matt Ryan ranks 4th in the NFL in passing, but he's thrown as many picks (5) as he has TDs. He's also fumbled an NFL worst nine times. Jonathan Taylor has been banged up and hasn't been as productive as he was last season. Indy appears to be due for some positive regression. The Broncos have plenty of issues of their own, and their problems might not be as easy to fix. Injuries to Randy Gregory and Javonte Williams will hurt, and Nathaniel Hackett hasn't inspired much confidence as the head coach. Russell Wilson is battling shoulder soreness, and asking this team to cover a number seems a little optimistic. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Raiders v. Titans | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LV. The Raiders opened up a 20-0 lead in the first half against Arizona last week, and they had a 23-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Somehow they suffered an epic meltdown, allowing Arizona to score a pair of late TDs and a pair of two-point conversions. Then the Raiders fumbled in overtime losing 29-23. While these are the type of losses that are tough to come back from, they face a Tennessee team that has more than it's share of problems. The offensive line was already a mess, and then last week they lost Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold. Derrick Henry looks like a shell of his former self, and Ryan Tannehill continues to regress. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Tennessee, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-22 | Vikings +2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Minny. Turn on the TV and all the analysts will tell you how bad Kirk Cousins is in Monday Night Football games. i honesty think that's a ridiculous thing to believe, that he is significantly worse on Monday than he is on Sunday afternoon. While he's 2-9 straight up in Monday night games, his QBR in those games is actually pretty good. His chemistry with Justin Jefferson and new head coach Kevin O'connell looked pretty good last week. The defense looked equally as impressive, holding Aaron Rodgers to 195 yards and an INT, and sacking him twice. The Eagles don't look bad either, but at the end of the day they beat the lions and still gave up a ton of points. Jalen Hurts was flirting with an intentional grounding penalty all day. My read here is that the Vikes are getting points, and they have the better QB, RB, WRs, coaching is a wash, hard to say who's got the better defense. I'll take the dog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 141 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYJ. The Jets lost 24-9 to the Ravens in Week 1, despite holding an edge in total yards (380-274). The Browns kicked a 58 yard FG in the final seconds to come from behind and win 26-24 in Cleveland. It sure seems like the Browns are asked to cover a lot of points for a team with such a one dimensional offense. The Jets have a history of playing close games against Cleveland, covering the spread in six of the last eight meetings. The Browns have failed to cover in five straight as a favorite, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 126 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Ravens beat the Jets in Week 1 but it come at a cost. Left Tackle JaWuan James tore his Achilles in Week 1, and Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful this week. Despite what appeared to be a one sided win against the Jets, the Ravens were actually outgained 380-274 in total yards. Miami should pose a much bigger threat here than their Week 1 opponent. Tua connected with Tyreek Hill for eight receptions for 94 yards, and Jalen Waddle had 69 yards and a TD on four grabs. Miami's defense held the Patriots to just seven points on 271 total yards of offense. The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, and I don't think they should be favored by three and the hook. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chiefs were impressive in a win at Arizona in Week 1, but that game might say more about the Cardinals than it does about the Chiefs. They should face a much tougher test on Thursday night in a home game against the Chargers. Home field hasn't proved to be much of an advantage in recent meetings between these teams. The home team has lost seven of the last eight meetings straight up. Going back even further, the road team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings. The Chargers are 36-16-4 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog. LA dominated defensively in their win over the Raiders in Week 1. They sacked Derek Carr five times and forced him to throw three INTs. I like LA to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Thursday night. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 1078 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Buffalo. The Rams won a dozen games, finishing first in the NFC West and winning the Super Bowl last season. They will try to be the first back-to-back champions since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005. Statistically, it’s more likely that the team that won the Super Bowl the previous season misses the playoffs than it is for them to repeat as champions. Seven teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls, while nine teams since 1990 have won the Super Bowl and gone on to miss the playoffs. While the Rams look to avoid a Super Bowl Hangover, the Bills are looking to bounce back after being ousted by the Chiefs in last year's playoffs. The Bills are the only team heading into 2022 with a top 5 ranked offense and defense. They used two of their top three draft picks on defensive players, and the addition of veteran Von Miller will help the pass rush. Buffalo ranked 1st in the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 17 points per game last season. The Bills also ranked 1st in passing defense allowing just 163 passing yards per game. Josh Allen threw for 4,407 yards and 36 TDs last season, and he ran for another six scores on 122 carries for 763 yards. He delivered in the biggest game of his life (against KC), and he comes into the 2022 season as the MVP favorite (+700). GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 91 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. The Bengals managed to win on the road at Tennessee last week despite QB Joe Burrow getting sacked nine times. They will have no hope here in Kansas City if they fail to protect Burrow, despite the fact that they beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The Chiefs had a 28-17 lead at halftime in that game, and we could see both teams score their share of points here in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 782 yards and eight TDs on 76 percent passing in the Playoffs so far. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 overall, and they have gone over the total in seven straight overall. Don't be surprised if Kansas City wins this one in a blowout 42-24. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | 36-42 | Loss | -109 | 88 h 51 m | Show | |
5* |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers -5.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -102 | 40 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Packers. The 49ers dominated the first half in their win at Dallas last weekend, but they just barely held on in a game that went down to the wire. Playing on the road in a cold weather game in Green Bay is going to be a far tougher test. The Packers are well rested, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. San Francisco picked up a few injuries against the Cowboys, none more significant than QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He complained about a shoulder injury after taking hit in the first half, and his first half quarterback rating was healthy 106.3 (11/14, 133 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT) but after the shoulder injury, the second half QB rating was a paltry 4.0 (3/11, 39 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT). He's been picked off five times in his last three starts, and if the Packers get a sizeable lead, it will put a ton of pressure on him. The Packers won at SF during the season, and Davante Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards and a TD. There's no defense for the Rodgers/Adams duo, and that's bad news for San Francisco. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | 15-31 | Loss | -119 | 57 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over 17.5 (team total). The Bucs are a 7.5 point favorite at home versus Philly, and with all the injuries for Tampa this game might be closer than some would expect. The Bucs beat the Eagles 28-22 in Philly during the regular season, and Leonard Fournette ran for 81 yards and two TDs on 22 carries. Fournette won't play in this game due to a hamstring injury. Antonio Brown caught nine passes for 93 yards and a TD, and we know he's no longer on the team. Mike Evans is the last man standing in what was a stacked receiving corps, and with a thin backfield he should get plenty of work today. The Eagles offense ranks below average in the league scoring just over 22 points per game, but in the 11 games since losing to Tampa, they have averaged 28 points per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-22 | Patriots +4 v. Bills | 17-47 | Loss | -103 | 44 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NE. The Patriots ran for 222 yards and two TDs in a 14-0 win in a snow storm in Buffalo in December, and that game exposed the flaws of this Bills team. They rely too heavily on the arm of Josh Allen, and it cost them. They likely won't have to deal with snow this time around, but the forecast calls for temperatures of -12. The Patriots are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Buffalo, and they are getting more points in this game than they were in their last visit to Orchard Park. In a game that has a high probability of being decided by a field goal, I am getting the team with the better coach and I am getting 4+ points? Sign me up. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +5.5 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Vegas. Everyone is talking about Joe Burrow and the Bengals. They won three of their final four games, clinching the division. Keep in mind only one of those wins came by more than five points. The Raiders aren't getting much hype at all, despite ending the season on a four game winning streak. Joe Burrow might be the more talented QB (remains to be seen), but at 30 years of age Derek Carr has 30 game winning drives under his belt. He holds an NFL record with 24 fourth quarter comebacks. The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Wildcard games, and the fact that they are favored by more than a FG suggests that recency bias is at play here. I'll take the points with the veteran QB on a team with the exact same record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | 24-33 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on New England. Not only is Miami eliminated from the playoffs, and the Patriots still have plenty to play for, but this is also a revenge spot for New England. The season opener at Foxboro was a 17-16 win for Miami. The Patriots were about to score the go-ahead TD when Damian Harris fumbled in the final minutes, allowing Miami to run out the clock. Tua Tagovaloa threw for 202 yards with a TD and an INT on 16-of-27 passing. Tagovaloa has thrown four picks in his last three starts, and New England's defense ranks second in the NFL with 23 INTs this season. The Dolphins have won seven of their last eight overall, but not one of those wins came against a team that is currently in a playoff spot. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -5.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on ARI. The Cardinals wrap up the season at home against division rivals Seattle, and this looks like a huge let down spot for the Seahawks. Russell Wilson threw four TD passes and Seattle scored 50+ points in a win over the Lions in their final home game last week. The Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win, and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +5 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on WAS. The Washington Football team is coming off one of the ugliest losses in their history. They were completely out-classed by the Cowboys, trailing 42-7 at halftime. That loss effectively ends any hope of making the playoffs, so you might expect them to give up on the season. I seriously doubt that Ron Rivera has any interest in laying down in a home game against division rivals Philly. The Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win, and they scored just three points in the first half against New York last week. Jalen Hurts has thrown as many picks (3) as he has TDs in his last three starts. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-26-21 | Bucs v. Panthers +10.5 | 32-6 | Loss | -113 | 83 h 49 m | Show | |
The Panthers have lost four straight games, losing twice at home and twice on the road. Their home losses came by single digits, and both home losses came by a double digit margin. Tampa Bay is coming off a 9-0 loss to the Saints, and they have been hit hard by injuries. Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin are all out. Only the Buffalo Bills have allowed fewer yards per game than Carolina, and the Panthers have allowed just 178 passing yards per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GB. We saw Cleveland really struggle against a below average team last week, and now they face the mighty Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are a heavy favorite, and this should be quite a mismatch. Baker Mayfield is back, but there are still a long list of players on the covid list, especially on defense. The Packers are 6-0 at home and all six of those wins came by double-digits. Aaron Jones has scored three TDs in his last two starts, and he should get plenty of touches here in what should be a blowout. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-21 | Vikings -6.5 v. Bears | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Minny. The Bears have lost seven of their last eight games overall, and injuries are a huge concern heading into this Monday night matchup versus Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-7 overall, and the majority of their losses have come in games decided by just a few points. The Bears defense has given up 78 points in their last two games, and they face a Vikings offense that is firing on all cylinders. Dalvin Cook ran for 205 yards and two TDs in a win over the Steelers in his last start. He should have another big game coming off plenty of rest. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-21 | Raiders +3 v. Browns | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Vegas. We saw this line move several points with the Raiders the favorite, and after being re-scheduled the Browns have gone to -3. So far the indication is that the majority of the Cleveland players on the Covid list remain out, and therefore the Raiders should still have an advantage. Nick Mullens is presumed to be the starter for the Browns, and he's had plenty of trouble protecting the football. Mullens has thrown eight INTs in his last five starts. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Saints. The Saints beat the Bucs earlier this year despite losing Jameis Winston early in that game. The Bucs defense is strong against the run, but New Orleans ran for 152 yards and a TD in their 36-27 home win over Tampa. Taysom Hill has been a threat in the running game, and we have already seen Josh Allen run for 109 yards and a TD against the Bucs. Hill ran for over 100 yards versus Dallas, and scored a pair of rushing TDs against the Jets last week. I expect another big game from Taysom Hill. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-21 | Packers -2 v. Ravens | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 167 h 56 m | Show |
10* |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Jags. Urban Meyer was not popular with the Jaguars players, and they might be eager to prove that he was the problem. James Robinson is one player that will have something to prove. He saw his workload dramatically reduced in recent weeks. He draws a favorable matchup this week against the Texans who rank dead last in the NFL versus the run. With Carlos Hyde out with a concussion, Robinson should get plenty of work. The Texans defense has allowed 147.9 rushing yards per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-12-21 | 49ers v. Bengals +2 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
5* |
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12-12-21 | Saints -5 v. Jets | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on N.O. The Saints have lost five straight, but they will be the favorite on the road at New York this week. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in scoring defense, and with Alvin Kamara coming back we could see the Saints snap this skid. Kamara has played in eight games this season, scoring seven TDs. He should find plenty of holes in this Jets defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on New England. Bill Belichick has the Patriots back on top in the AFC, and they roll into Buffalo as a three point underdog. The Bills are coming off a Thanksgiving Day win over New Orleans, but they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Historically the Pats have owned the Bills, the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo. The road team is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on CHI. Only two teams have allowed fewer points per game than Arizona this season (Denver and Buffalo). The Cardinals though are just 2-2 in their last four overall, and the offense has struggled with Kyler Murray battling injuries. The Bears defense ranks among the best in the NFL, and playing in December in cold and windy Chicago is an advantage for the home team. The under is 11-3 in the Cardinals last 14 road games, and the Bears have failed to reach the total in 18 of their last 24 in Chicago. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | 27-17 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on New Orleans. The Saints have lost four straight, prompting them to make a change at quarterback. Enter Taysom Hill who was quite successful filling in at QB last year. The Saints won three of the four games he started last season. Dallas has lost back to back games, and they have been hit hard by Covid19. Mike McCarthy won't be on the sidelines in New Orleans, and several players will miss the game. Amari Cooper is expected to return after testing positive a few weeks ago. The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-21 | Raiders +7.5 v. Cowboys | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 91 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on LV. The Raiders have lost three straight, and Derek Carr has thrown as many INTs (4) as he has TDs during that span. They are up against a Cowboys team that scored just nine points on three FGs in a loss at Kansas City on Sunday. Amari Cooper didn't play as he recovers from Covid, and he won't be available on Thanksgiving. Ceedee Lamb left Sunday's game with a concussion, but he's been back at practice and might be able to start. Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee injury, and while he will play his workload is expected to be cut back. With all the injuries on offense, I am not sure the Cowboys should be asked to cover more than a TD here. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog, and the Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-21 | Bears v. Lions +3.5 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 46 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions. The Lions lost 13-10 at Cleveland last week, losing by three points or less for the third time this season. The Bears come in to this Thanksgiving Day matchup favored by 3.5, and that sets up the potential for that half point to be very significant. The last time the Bears played in the Motor City, they won by a score of 27-24 in September of 2020. Three of the last four head to head meetings have been decided by four points or less, so there is every reason to expect this game to be close. The Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite, while the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last five when scoring 15 points or less in their previous game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Bears. Chicago probably deserved to win in a controversial loss to Pittsburgh in their last game. They have had a long week to prepare for the Ravens, and this looks like a tough spot for Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite, and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. It's going to be cold and windy in Chicago, and this game should be a war of attrition. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Colts v. Bills -7 | 41-15 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Buffalo. The Colts might be biting off more than they can chew here on the road at Buffalo. Indy is 5-5 but when you look at their wins over the Jags, Jets, Texans and Dolphins, it doesn't inspire much confidence. The Bills are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall, and the favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings between these teams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Miami. At first glance the Dolphins are 3-7 and the Jets are 2-7, so you might assume these teams are close in terms of talent. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in scoring defense, and their offense is in the hands of a 36 year old Joe Flacco. He's appeared in six games for the Jets over the last two seasons, and the Jets are 0-6 in those games. History favors Miami, the Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Matt Ryan over 0.5 INT. The Patriots defense ranks second in the NFL with 14 INTs in 10 games so far this season. They come into Atlanta as winners of four straight. Matt Ryan was terrible last week, throwing for 117 yards and two INTs on 9-of-21 passing in a loss to Dallas. He's thrown five picks in his last four starts, and this is not a favorable matchup for the Falcons. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Baltimore. In case you hadn't noticed, there are two NFL teams that are surely tanking this season. It was perfectly clear when Houston played Miami last week that neither team was all that interested in winning. Jacoby Brissett got the start in place of Tua Tagovailoa, and despite throwing for two picks and getting sacked four times, Miami hung on for a 17-9 win. To say that recent history favors the Ravens would be an understatement. Baltimore has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 99-10. The Ravens have covered in nine straight against the Dolphins, and six of those games were in Miami. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -7 | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 6 m | Show | |
7* |
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11-07-21 | Packers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GB. So Aaron Rodgers is out with Covid, and the line has moved in favor of the Chiefs. Seems like a big overreaction to me. Keep in mind that the Chiefs are tied for last place in the AFC West, and last week just barely beat the Giants who were down their top two WRs and starting RB Saquon Barkley. The Packers still have studs at WR and RB, and a solid defense. The question is, how bad is backup QB Jordan Love? He's going to have to be pretty bad for the Packers to lose this game by more than a TD. We've already seen the Jets win with Mike White, the Cowboys win with Cooper Rush, The Browns win with Case Keenum and the Seahawks win with Geno Smith. Don't be surprised if we add Jordan Love's name to that list. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NYG. We all know that the Chiefs are capable of playing a lot better than they have this season. That being said they were not a great first half team even during their Super Bowl seasons. They also weren't great at covering the spread even dating back to last season. The Chiefs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last eight as a home favorite. The Giants are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog. The bookmakers listing KC as the double digit favorite flies in the face of all the historical trends. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-31-21 | Patriots v. Chargers -4 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 3 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-31-21 | Bengals -4 v. Jets | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 161 h 6 m | Show | |
5* |
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10-31-21 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | 44-6 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a free play on DET. The Lions are 0-7, and this week's home game is as good a chance as they willl probably have to win a game this season. Only two teams in history have gone 0-16 in a season, and one of those teams was the 2008 Lions. Detroit hasn't played that bad at home this season, losing close games to San Francisco, Baltimore and Cincinnati. They have covered in five of their last six versus the Eagles, and the Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Eagles are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. This Philly team has no business being a favorite on the road, not even against the Lions. GL, Jesse Schue |