Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys -6.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think the Cowboys are in a smash spot here at home on Sunday as they host a Rams squad that feels it was wronged in last week's home defeat against the Steelers. Dallas checks in off its bye week following an uplifting 20-17 road win over the Chargers. While the Cowboys are dealing with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football, I'm confident we'll see their offense feast on Sunday. One of the Rams bright spots this season was RB Kyren Williams but he's now sidelined. While the Los Angeles aerial attack does boast a terrific 1-2 punch in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys secondary (and pass rush) to neutralize the Rams offense this week. Dallas allowed a season-high 22 pass completions in its most recent game against the Chargers but still gave up only 219 passing yards. It's all systems go for the Cowboys offense this Sunday and the Rams defense is no longer a unit to fear. Last year, Dallas took this same matchup by 12 points with Cooper Rush at quarterback. While the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot with the Eagles on deck, that's not an angle I generally put much stock in. Take Dallas (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers bye week couldn't have come at a better time as they were 0-6 to start the season and have had a chance to regroup ahead of this matchup with the upstart Texans. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams but here we are catching north of a field goal with the Panthers, at home no less. Houston has reeled off three wins in its last four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS along the way. Like the Panthers, the Texans are also coming off their bye week but the difference is it came at a bad time as they were rolling heading in. It's not often you see a team deliver consecutive ATS wins in games where it scored 20 points or less but that's the case with Houston entering this contest. Carolina has faced a brutal schedule since Week 3, travelling to Seattle before hosting winless (at the time) Minnesota and then hitting the road to face the Lions and Dolphins, two teams that are likely to reach the postseason. Noting that Houston is a long-term 21-37 ATS off an outright underdog victory, look for Carolina to prevail on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week and that's led to this total being bet up a few points since opening. I believe it's a move in the wrong direction. The Saints have aired it out 50+ times in consecutive weeks. That's not how this offense is built as head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr are as risk-averse as it gets. I do expect the Saints to find some success in this game but road teams haven't been running away and hiding on the Colts here in Indianapolis this season with their four home games all decided by 10 points or less. Indy put up a whopping 38 points against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not counting on a repeat performance. After turning the football over four times in each of the last two weeks, there's reason to believe we'll see Shane Steichen's Colts scale back their offensive gameplan for QB Garnder Minshew against an elite Saints defense on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-23 | UNLV +9.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. UNLV has a good thing going this season even if few are paying much attention. The Runnin' Rebels have already gained Bowl eligibility with their sixth win of the season coming last week against Colorado State. They've got their sights set on much bigger goals, however, as they go after an elusive Mountain West Conference title. Taking down Fresno State, which checks in with an identical 6-1 record this season, would certainly be a step in the right direction. Note that while the Rebels have lost five straight matchups in this series, they've been right there in each of the last two seasons, losing by just eight and seven points. This year's UNLV squad is arguably much better than both of those teams, yet it isn't being offered much respect in the betting marketplace. Fresno State has beaten up on some awful teams this season and also lost a game as a five-point favorite on the road against Wyoming. The Bulldogs marquee win came back in Week 1 on the road against Purdue as QB Mikey Keene balled out with nearly 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. His status remains up in the air for this game as he continues to recover from injury. Backup Logan Fife has performed admirably in his absence but he's not the same playmaker Keene is. Regardless who is under center for Fresno State on Saturday, I believe UNLV has the personnel to keep pace. Put the Bulldogs on 'upset alert' as we grab all the points we can get with the Rebels. Take UNLV (10*). |
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10-28-23 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | 43-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The injury to Georgia TE Brock Bowers seems to have a lot of bettors a little spooked as we head into this pre-Halloween rivalry tilt between the Bulldogs and Gators in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs have been a massive disappointment from a betting perspective this season, going 1-5-1 ATS to date but I look for them to shake loose for a convincing victory on Saturday. Florida is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins - those were much-needed following a modest 3-2 start to the campaign. But the Gators bye week probably came at the worst time and now they need to get rolling from a standing start against arguably the best team in the country. Note that Georgia has dominated Florida lately, taking the last three meetings by 16, 27 and 22 points. I don't think there's any reason to believe this edition of the Gators can keep things any closer, even if the oddsmakers anticipate otherwise. Note that only two of Georgia's seven games to date have been decided by fewer than 17 points. Take Georgia (8*). |
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10-28-23 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week - in the last two weeks, in fact. I expect a reversal of course here on Saturday as the Ducks travel to face the Utes. Oregon has looked downright unstoppable at times this season but Washington State actually managed to lay out a pretty good blueprint for slowing the Ducks high-powered offense for the better part of the first half last week. I expect the Utes, who own one of the best defenses in the nation, to turn in a strong performance here at home, where they've allowed just 39 points in four games this season. Note that last year the Utes travelled to Autzen Stadium and limited the Ducks to just 20 points in a three-point defeat. On the flip side, the Ducks defense doesn't get nearly the credit or attention it deserves, largely due to the team's electric offense. Favored on the road, there's nothing for Oregon's defense to fear with the Utes still dealing with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Orange have gone into a tailspin since their 4-0 start, dropping each of their last three games. Of course, they've run the gauntlet lately going up against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State and won't get any sort of a breather travelling to Blacksburg to face the Hokies on Thursday. I do like their chances of rebounding here, however, with many of their key parts still on board from the 2021 team that prevailed by a 41-36 score in Blacksburg almost two years to the day. If there was one positive for Syracuse to take away from its ugly 41-3 rout at the hands of Florida State last time out it was that it kept Seminoles QB Jordan Travis' running under wraps. That at least gave the Orange a good sense of the speed they'll be facing at quarterback this week in the form of Hokies dual-threat QB Kyron Drones. Virginia Tech is coming off a 30-13 win over Wake Forest - a game in which Drones threw for over 300 yards. That's certainly not his game, noting that it was the first time this season he threw for more than 228 yards. If Drones tries to attack the Orange too often through the air in this one he's likely to be punished for any mistakes by the outstanding DB duo of Alijah Clark and Justin Barron who have inexplicably produced just two interceptions so far this season. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader has been sacked a whopping nine times during the team's current three-game losing streak. I do think the extra week of practice should work in his favor here as the Orange offensive line certainly had some issues that needed to be worked out. I would anticipate the Orange getting Shrader on the move more than we've seen in recent weeks after he got bogged down by tough North Carolina and Florida State defenses over the last couple of games. The Hokies defensive front poses a difficult challenge as well but at least Shrader has played (and succeeded) in this environment before - he threw for 236 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 174 yards and three scores in that 2021 matchup on this field. Take Syracuse (8*). |
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10-25-23 | UTEP v. Sam Houston State OVER 36.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Sam Houston State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I think UTEP 'under' bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after they reeled off three consecutive 'under' results. Tonight's opponent, winless Sam Houston State, has found a little something offensively in recent games with QB Keegan Shoemaker showing signs of progress, throwing for six touchdowns and just two interceptions while running for 124 yards over the last three games. The Bearkats haven't stuck with the run at all this season but figure to feast on a UTEP defense that has hemorrhaged 5.1 yards per rush this season if they so choose. Sam Houston State's defense hasn't lived up to expectations this season, part of that has been due to simply being on the field way too much thanks to an inefficient offense. Miners RB Deion Hankins has gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for 265 yards over the last three games and I expect him to be the focal point of the offense here as well. While run plays are generally an 'under' bettors best friend, I think there's a good chance UTEP runs all over the Sam Houston State defense on Wednesday. Sitting at 0-7 on the campaign, the Bearkats certainly haven't learned how to 'take the air out of the football' playing with a lead at this level (it's their first year in FBS) and I feel that lends itself to a back-and-forth affair that creeps 'over' the low posted total on Wednesday. Take the over (8*). |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers got bogged down offensively in a bad weather game (against a very good defense) in Cleveland last Sunday ending their streak of five straight games scoring 30 or more points to open the season. I expect them to pick right back up on Monday as they draw a mouth-watering matchup under the Bank of America Stadium roof in Minnesota. The Vikings only hope on defense is that their blitz-happy nature can force 49ers QB Brock Purdy into a couple of crucial mistakes but I'm more confident in Purdy's ability to pick apart a very beatable Vikes secondary. Even without all-world WR Justin Jefferson, I do think the Minnesota offense can test an extremely stout 49ers defense. Rookie WR Jordan Addison flashed in the absence of JJ last Sunday in Chicago. The Vikes offense got off to a strong start in that contest before slowing down in the second half. While most have given up on RB Alexander Mattison, I think he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Note that he contributed a touchdown run in Minnesota's wild 34-26 loss in San Francisco the last time these two teams met in November of 2021. The Vikes manufactured 26 points in that contest despite Jefferson being held out of the end zone. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Minnesota priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of 61.2 points. Even if we downgrade the Vikes offense with Jefferson sidelined, they still figure to approach the 20-point mark. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles bandwagon was effectively cleared following last Sunday's upset loss against the Jets. Here, I'm confident we'll see Philadelphia bounce back against the red hot Dolphins. Miami looks unstoppable on offense but its defense remains vulnerable. The Fins were fortunate to face two punch-drunk offenses in the Giants and Panthers over the last two weeks. They'll face a much different animal this week as the Eagles return home in a foul mood after being perplexed by the Jets defense last Sunday. Philadelphia still has an elite offense while its defense can hold serve just enough to ultimately extend the margin against Miami. Note that the Eagles are 45-24 ATS in their last 69 home games after losing two of their last three contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.0 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. With the Chargers low-scoring defeat at home against the Cowboys on Monday night fresh in our mind, we'll back Los Angeles as it heads out on the road on a short week to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City rode three turnovers to a 19-8 victory over the Broncos a week ago Thursday night. Note that the Chargers have only turned the football three times all season. While Los Angeles has lost three straight matchups in this series, all three defeats came by less than one score. The Chargers have long been successful in road games, going 145-107 ATS in their last 252 games played away from home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points in that situation. Despite their 2-3 record, the Chargers do a lot of things well and I expect them to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions are rolling off four straight wins but I look for that streak to grind to a halt on Sunday in Baltimore. Detroit will be without RB David Montgomery for this game and that's a key development as he's one of the best blocking backs in football in addition to his production on the ground. Head coach Dan Campbell has indicated that rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will have a full workload but I expect him to struggle in multiple facets here. Detroit has had a difficult time defending opposing tight ends which sets this up as a smash spot for Ravens TE Mark Andrews. Note that the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Lions are a woeful 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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10-22-23 | Raiders v. Bears +3 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants +3 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Giants let the Bills off the hook last Sunday night, plain and simple. A massive upset win was there for the taking and New York let it slip away. With that being said, the G-Men have to be feeling as good about themselves as they have all season entering this division matchup against the Commanders. Washington picked up a road win in Atlanta last Sunday despite gaining fewer than 200 total yards. The Commanders will have three two-game road swings this season and I don't expect them to sweep any of them. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center for the Giants, I expect solid production from the quarterback position on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley looked no worse for wear following his high ankle sprain last week as he returned and turned in a productive performance against the Bills. The Giants will be taking a step down in class in all facets against Washington and I expect them to take advantage of this rare opportunity to pick up a victory. Take New York (10*). |
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10-21-23 | UCLA -17 v. Stanford | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Stanford pulled off a stunning come-from-behind victory over Colorado last week, taking full advantage of a young Buffaloes squad that is still learning how to take the air out of the football and close out a game. The Cardinal won't be so fortunate here as they host a UCLA squad that will surely be in a foul mood following a turnover-fuelled loss at Oregon State last week. In that contest, the Bruins approached 500 total yards of offense for a second straight game but coughed up the football three times. That's something you simply can't do against a team as good as Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Chip Kelly's Bruins get right back on track this week as they face a Cardinal squad that doesn't do anything particularly well. Stanford did catch a spark with its passing game last week, throwing for a season-high 399 yards. Note that UCLA has allowed just 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season and has been even better against the run, yielding only 2.3 yards per rush. Take UCLA (8*). |
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10-21-23 | Washington State +20.5 v. Oregon | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Washington State limps into this matchup on the heels of consecutive losses but I look for the Cougars to give the Ducks all they can handle on Saturday. Last year, Washington State let Oregon off the hook at home, leading 17-9 at halftime but ultimately fell in a 44-41 thriller. You would have to go back five meetings in this series to find the last time the Cougars managed to secure a victory and while they'll be hard-pressed to do so in Eugene on Saturday, I do think they can give the Ducks a run. Oregon came out on the wrong end of a 36-33 decision on the road against Washington last Saturday. Note that the Ducks are a long-term 20-37 ATS when coming off a road defeat, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 point on average in that situation. The Cougars have turned the football over seven times during their two-game losing streak but they should be happy to face the Ducks, noting that they've forced a single turnover or less in five of six games so far this season. Take Washington State (10*). |
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10-21-23 | Boston College +5.5 v. Georgia Tech | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. Boston College has found something over its last couple of games, both victories over Virginia and Army, rushing for a total of 504 yards while continuing its incredibly consistent scoring pace. The Eagles have put up at least 24 points in all six games this season - a welcome change for a program that seemed to be stuck in the mud offensively in recent years. That's more than can be said for Georgia Tech, which is coming off a thrilling 23-20 win over Miami (the Hurricanes let the Yellow Jackets off the hook in that game by electing not to take a knee in the final minute). Were it not for that gaffe by Miami we would be talking about a Georgia Tech squad that is 2-4 this season. Also note that the Yellow Jackets are yielding 5.1 yards per rush this season, opening the door for the underdog Eagles to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday. You would have to go back four matchups in this series - all the way to 2012 - to find the last time the Yellow Jackets defeated the Eagles by more than a field goal. I can't help but feel this one will be nip-and-tuck all the way. Take Boston College (8*). |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While the contrarian in me would love to back the 'over' with the Saints riding a six-game 'under' streak to start the season, I don't see where the points are going to come from on Thursday night in New Orleans. While it may be lost on the average fan or bettor, the Saints have major issues on their offensive line with a number of players either injured or downright ineffective. The Jaguars boast a pass rush that's capable of taking advantage of the Saints o-line woes and I think that leads to New Orleans employing a rather conservative offensive gameplan on Thursday night. We can expect plenty of dump-off passes from QB Derek Carr to RB Alvin Kamara against a Jags defense that concedes such plays regularly. While the Saints wide receivers do have a favorable matchup against a Jags secondary that has been leaky at the best of times and will be missing key CB Tyson Campbell, I'm not convinced Carr will have enough time in the pocket to take advantage. On the flip side, the Jags will either trot out QB Trevor Lawrence on a short week on a gimpy knee or backup C.J. Beathard who has barely seen an NFL field over the last few seasons. Either way, expect Doug Pederson to employ a similarly conservative gameplan to that of the Saints. RB Travis Etienne will likely be force-fed in this game but whether that leads to anything other than modest gains remains to be seen as the Saints defense has yielded just 3.5 yards per rush this season and has yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone. The Jags were involved in a game that totalled 57 points last week but that actually sets us up nicely here as the 'under' is 11-3 the last 14 times they've come off a game that totalled 50+ points, resulting in just 39.7 total points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Marshall plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Thursday. Marshall got off to a red hot 4-0 start to the season but has since lost consecutive road games to fall to 4-2, dropping all the way back to fifth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings. I like the bounce-back spot for the Thundering Herd on Thursday as they host undefeated James Madison. The Dukes will be looking for their fourth road win of the season, a feat they didn't accomplish all of last year. Marshall has proven tough on the opposition here at home where it checks in a perfect 3-0. This will be a 'revenge game' for James Madison after it dropped a 26-12 decision as a 9.5-point home favorite against Marshall. Of course, revenge is generally a dish best served at home and I like the Thundering Herd's chances of holding serve behind a big game from QB Cam Fancher and RB Rasheen Ali. James Madison has seen many of its opponents abandon the run but I don't believe that will be the case with Marshall, noting that it has ripped off more than 100 rushing yards in all six games this season. Take Marshall (10*). |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Dallas has yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total this season and I don't think we'll see that change on Monday night. Last week's debacle against the 49ers can't be pinned on the Cowboys defense. Dallas turned the football over four times in that contest. If you're going to give a team as good as the Niners that many extra possessions, they're going to take advantage and they did scoring 42 points. Here, I look for a much cleaner performance from the Cowboys offense while the defense bounces back as well. While Dallas has proven to be pass-happy with Mike McCarthy calling the plays, it has still topped out at just 253 passing yards in a game this season. I look for the Chargers to employ a balanced offensive attack with RB Austin Ekeler back at full strength. The loss of WR Mike Williams to a season-ending injury hurts against a defense like the Cowboys. Keenan Allen remains an elite wide receiver but not necessarily a field-stretcher like Williams is. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 27-13 with the Cowboys coming off a road loss by two touchdowns or more while the 'under' has gone 60-39 in the Chargers last 99 home games that have seen a total set at 45.5 or higher. Take the under (8*). |
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10-15-23 | Eagles -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are cruising along a little bit, dare I say, beneath the radar at 5-0 on the season. Philadelphia will again try to string together an ATS winning streak for the first time this season as it heads to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on Sunday. I like the way this matchup sets up for Philadelphia. Yes, the Jets possess a talented defense. Yet the reality is they're still giving up plenty to opposing passing games, as we saw in last week's relatively high-scoring affair in Denver, and are sorely missing Sauce Gardner's running mate at corner in D.J. Reed. The Eagles offense hasn't always looked dominant this season but I think this matchup favors them immensely. While Philadelphia will be forced to go without CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter among others, it is also expected to get back LB Nakobe Dean. The Jets offense isn't all that difficult to gameplan for. The Eagles will need to key on RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. There's no question QB Zach Wilson's presence continues to keep New York's offensive ceiling relatively low. I certainly don't expect Breece Hall to slice and dice through the Eagles defense the way he did against the Broncos sieve-like defensive front last Sunday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's not being priced like it but I believe this game has shootout potential as Seattle comes out of its bye week with a date with the Bengals in Cincinnati. This matchup sets up favorably for the Seahawks offense as Cincinnati checks in allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush on the season. I always think of Seattle as a run-first team under Pete Carroll and sophomore RB Kenneth Walker is quietly having a terrific season. Of course, that doesn't mean that the Seahawks aren't comfortable taking to the air. There's reason to believe QB Geno Smith will be more comfortable in the pocket this week with a trio of starting offensive linemen set to return. When given time, there's no reason the Seahawks offense shouldn't be able to take the lid off the Bengals pass defense will field-stretchers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Locket and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has yet to have a breakout performance. There's little reason to worry about the Bengals offense after they feasted on the Cardinals in Arizona last week. QB Joe Burrow appears to have put his nagging calf injury behind him and Seattle always seems to be vulnerable on defense, regardless the personnel it sends to the field. When the Bengals offense is right, it is one of the most dynamic in the entire NFL. Take the over (8*). |
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10-15-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings season is obviously swirling down the drain following another loss last Sunday, not to mention the fact that all-world WR Justin Jefferson will miss a considerable number of weeks due to injury. With that being said, Minnesota is in a smash spot against the Bears on Sunday and should finally be able to get rolling offensively. Thought to be one of the best 'over' bets on a weekly basis out of the gates this season, you would have to go back to Week 2 to find the last time a game involving the Vikes found its way 'over' the total. That should change here. The Bears defense has already given up a whopping eight rushing touchdowns through five games this season. Chicago's secondary has been ravaged by injuries and even without Jefferson, Minnesota's passing game remains dynamic with rookie WR Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and TE T.J. Hockenson in line to eat on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, it's all systems go for Bears QB Justin Fields after he got going against the Commanders last week. Minnesota has managed to pick off just one pass all season in contrast with eight passing touchdowns allowed. That's about par for the course given the Vikes personnel deficits in pass defense. I can't imagine Chicago bothering to bang its head against the wall running the ball in this game, instead electing to attack Minnesota's burnable secondary through the air. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-23 | Oregon v. Washington -3 | Top | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The road team has won three straight meetings in this series but I look for that streak to come to an end on Saturday in Seattle. Oregon has turned in three straight near-perfect performances, crushing Hawaii 55-10 before dismantling Colorado and Stanford by identical 42-6 scores. The Ducks figure to get a wake-up call on Saturday, however, as they take on fellow undefeated Pac-12 squad Washington. The Huskies boast one of the most innovative offensive attacks in college football this season, perhaps taking a page out of the Ducks book. Washington was involved in more of a fight than expected last Saturday as it outlasted Arizona by a touchdown in Tucson. Here, I look for the Huskies defense to pave the way as they should be able to get home against Ducks QB Bo Nix on numerous occasions. We know what to expect from the Washington offense but I believe it's defense remains underrated, even as we approach the midpoint of October. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-14-23 | Illinois v. Maryland -13 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Maryland predictably dropped its first game of the season last week in Columbus, falling by 20 points after getting off to a fast start against the Buckeyes. The Terrapins needed to turn in a perfectly clean performance to contend with mighty Ohio State but ended up giving the Buckeyes a pair of extra possessions by way of turnovers. That left enough daylight for Ohio State to run away with the game late. Here, I look for Maryland to bounce back as it hosts a listless Illinois squad that is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS this season, most recently failing to show up in a big primetime home game against Nebraska. That was a win the Illini needed but didn't come close to getting. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat here. This will be the Terps fifth home game already this season and they've blasted away on this field, averaging 5.2 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Any progress the Illini have made on the road has come in garbage time for the most part in lopsided losses at Kansas and Purdue. Take Maryland (8*). |
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10-14-23 | California v. Utah -10.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over California at 3 pm et on Saturday. Utah has had two weeks to figure things out following an ugly 21-7 loss to Oregon State. The Utes still have everything in front of them, sitting at 4-1 on the season. With that being said, they've looked punch-drunk on offense with QB Cam Rising sidelined. He's unlikely to play again this week but I look for a much sharper performance from the Utes against a Cal defense that has taken a pounding to this point, most recently allowing 52 points against aforementioned Oregon State last week. Speaking of taking a pounding, the Bears ground attack has been relied upon heavily and is starting to show some signs of wear with Jaydn Ott forced to leave last week's game but likely to return in time for Saturday's contest. I'm not sure it matters who the Bears have out there on Saturday, the Utes defense should feast. Utah checks in having allowed just 59 points through five games this season. Even if the Utes offense sputters again, the defense should be up to the task against a Cal offense that has committed multiple turnovers in four of six games this season. Take Utah (8*). |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State -4 v. Utah State | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Friday. Fresno State fell out of the top-25 rankings following last week's upset loss at Wyoming. The Bulldogs lost QB Mikey Keene to an ankle injury in that game and with word coming out that he's unlikely to play on Friday, this line has shifted toward Utah State. I don't agree with the move, noting that Keene's backup, Logan Fife, was arguably the front-runner for the starting job heading into fall camp and he should relish the opportunity to take over the reins in a big bounce-back game for the team on Friday. Fife knows the playbook having seen action in each of the last two seasons. While he has by no means thrived, turnovers have been the biggest issue. The good news is, he'll be facing a sieve-like Utah State defense on Friday. The Aggies rallied from an early 17-0 deficit to blast Colorado State by 20 points last week. I expect them to find the going much tougher against a terrific Fresno State defense on Friday. The strength in the Bulldogs defense lies in the second and third levels, and that's precisely where Aggies QB Cooper Legas likes to attack. I would worry about Legas getting a little over-zealous after he successfully bombed away on a bad Colorado State defense last week. Legas, like Fife, has been turnover-prone throughout his college career but the difference here is that Fresno State has the ball-hawkers on defense to take advantage of any mistakes. I think we can forgive the Bulldogs for a flat performance in Laramie last week. Keep in mind this is a team used to playing in front of 40,000+ in Fresno, nearly double what Wyoming (or Utah State) draws. Look for them to get their season back on track in this primetime affair. Take Fresno State (8*). |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 36 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Chiefs are well-positioned to feast on a matador-like Broncos defense on Thursday night. With that being said, we've seen Kansas City play down to the competition in these primetime games in recent years and it's not as if the Chiefs offense has been humming, scoring 27 points or less in four of five games this season and now playing on a short week with TE Travis Kelce banged-up (but likely to play). As for the Denver offense, it figures to get stuck in the mud against a Chiefs defense that has quietly gone about its business, holding all five opponents to 21 points or less this season. There's absolutely nothing appealing about this matchup as far as the Broncos offense goes with the Kansas City defense all but eliminating opponents' big play potential and Denver unable to stretch the field, no matter the opponent. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 15-3 with the Broncos coming off three or more consecutive games in which they allowed 25+ points. The 'under' is also a long-term 42-22 with the Chiefs installed as a home favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Dana Holgorsen's Houston Cougars. They're off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season, most recently blown out by Texas Tech in Lubbock on September 30th. It's not too late to turn things around but bagging a victory over Holgorsen's former team is paramount with a home date with Texas on deck before back-to-back sneaky-tough road tilts at Kansas State and Baylor. With only two victories to date, the Cougars could run out of real estate in a hurry in terms of Bowl eligibility if they can't hold serve on Thursday. You could argue that the bye week came at an awful time for West Virginia as it was rolling after four straight wins including a 24-21 upset victory at TCU. The Mountaineers lost one of their best defenders in LB Trey Lathan to a scary knee injury in that contest. That's bad news for a West Virginia team that has been fuelled by its defense in the early going this season. These two offenses are almost mirror images of one another, led by mobile quarterbacks in Garrett Greene of the Mountaineers and Donovan Smith of the Cougars. I like Houston's advantage with former West Virginia standouts RB Tony Mathis and WR Samuel Brown poised to ball out. For my money, Brown is the best offensive player on the field in this matchup. Take Houston (8*). |
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10-11-23 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. New Mexico State | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sam Houston State plus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Sam Houston State checks into this game sporting an 0-5 record on the season. Even if it could get just a little something out of its offense it might be in a much different situation right now. I think it's only a matter of time before the Bearkats pick up that first victory in FBS play and New Mexico State could very well be ripe for the picking. It's not as if the Aggies are setting the world on fire offensively. They hung 34 points on a bad Florida International team last week but 17 of those came in the fourth quarter. They're just one game removed from scoring only 17 points in a loss at Hawaii. While I do like New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia, Sam Houston State has the talent on defense to keep him under wraps all night long. The Bearkats offense did make some progress last week as QB Keegan Shoemaker threw for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns and also added 52 yards on the ground. I don't expect this team to be discouraged by its 0-5 start noting that it isn't eligible for a Bowl game in its first year in the FBS anyway. Take Sam Houston State (8*). |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. There's a lot the Raiders can do offensively to stay competitive in this football game. RB Josh Jacobs is well-positioned to go off against a Packers defense that has barely laid a hand on opposing running backs this season. While Jimmy Garoppolo's return leads to many downgrading the Raiders offense, I'm not as down on him as most. The Packers secondary is still banged-up with CB Jaire Alexander labelled with a questionable tag, even with the team being idle since a week ago Thursday. LB De'Vondre Campbell's absence can't be understated either. Meanwhile, it's back to all systems go for the Packers offense with RB Aaron Jones likely to return and WR Christian Watson unlikely to be as limited as he was in his return against the Lions. The Raiders vaunted pass rush hasn't been getting home nearly enough so far this season and their secondary is low-rate at best. This sets up as a favorable spot for Packers QB Jordan Love to show off his skills after a miserable performance against Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-19 with the Packers coming off a home loss and 18-7 with the Raiders playing at home off a loss by a touchdown or less against a divisional opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 45.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys are expected to get some reinforcements back on their offensive line in time for Sunday's showdown with the 49ers in Santa Clara. As strange as it sounds, I believe that works in our favor with the 'under' as it should allow Dallas to at least possess the football for longer stretches, chewing up plenty of clock and effectively shortening this game. Given how efficient the Niners offense has been since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback late last season, the less they have the football the better as far as the Cowboys are concerned. Dallas will likely be banging its head against the wall for much of the night trying to run the football as the Niners defense has proven to be a brick wall in that regard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aerial attack has been lukewarm. QB Dak Prescott has attempted 25, 38, 40 and 36 passes in four games this season yet has topped out at just 253 passing yards. On the flip side, this is a likely regression spot for the 49ers offense against an elite Cowboys defense. Dallas did get to see this Purdy-run offense in action in the playoffs last January, limiting it to 19 points and 312 total yards, albeit in a losing effort. Take the under (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a classic overreaction to last Sunday's results in my opinion as this total has climbed a number of points since opening. The Jets offense went from lifeless to inspired thanks to a stunningly sharp performance from QB Zach Wilson against the mighty Chiefs last Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos hung 34 points on the lowly Bears in a massive come-from-behind victory in the Windy City. I'm taking both of those results with a grain of salt, however, as I believe the jury is still out as to how efficient or explosive these two offenses can be. The Jets aren't going to win many games pinning their hopes on an offense that has been of the pop-gun variety at best so far this season. I wouldn't anticipate them opening up the playbook too wide for Wilson in a hostile environment against an opportunistic Broncos defense on Sunday. On the flip side, Denver's furious rally last week came against a hapless Bears defense. I expect the Broncos to go back to a rather conservative offensive gameplan against an elite Jets defense. Note that these two teams just met here in Denver last October with New York prevailing in a 16-9 slugfest. Two years ago on this same field, the Broncos pitched a shutout in a 26-point rout. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 24-11 with the Jets playing on the road off three or more consecutive losses with that situation producing an average total of just 36.3 points. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 with Denver coming off three straight games in which it allowed 25 or more points, as is the case here, leading to just 38.3 total points on average in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Panthers +10 v. Lions | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers check into this road tilt sporting an 0-4 record with QB Bryce Young struggling in his rookie campaign. I think Carolina's offense can get going a little bit in favorable conditions indoors in Detroit on Sunday while we'll gladly fade the Lions coming off consecutive double-digit victories. The Packers didn't look ready for the Lions at all in last week's matchup and Detroit ultimately rolled to a 14-point victory. While Detroit is now 3-1 on the season, it's worth noting that it has gone a long-term 22-42 ATS when coming off three victories in its last four games, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. The Panthers on the other hand have been outscored by a minuscule average margin of 0.8 points the last 66 times they've come off three ATS defeats in their last four contests, as is the case here. These two teams just met last Christmas Eve with the Panthers prevailing by a decisive 37-23 margin. For whatever reason, Carolina seems to match up well with Detroit, taking three of four matchups since 2017 with its lone loss over that stretch coming by a single point here in the Motor City in 2018. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots OVER 39 | 34-0 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I understand the logic behind the low posted total in this matchup between two lukewarm (at best) offenses. With that said, I think we're in for a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Patriots are severely depleted due to injuries on the defensive side of the football. We're talking about a who's who of Pats defenders that will be forced to miss Sunday's contest including DE Matt Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez. That opens the door for a tentative Saints offense to enjoy a breakout performance here. The question becomes whether the Patriots offense can hold up its end of the bargain. Counting on point production from this unit has been dicey at best this season but I do think coming off an embarrassing 38-3 loss in Dallas last week we will see the Patriots provide an answer offensively back at home. There's enough talent on this New England offense to produce more than the 55 points it has put up through four games (combined). The Saints defense has looked elite but let's pump the brakes a bit here, noting they've still allowed at least 15 points in all four games and haven't exactly faced a slate of offensive juggernauts, going up against Tennessee and Tampa Bay at home and Carolina and Green Bay on the road. In nine all-time meetings in this particular series we've seen a scoring floor of 41 points and a ceiling of 57. That's good enough for me as this one finds its way 'over' the total. Take the over (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have to be disappointed with their 2-2 start after starting the season by reeling off consecutive victories. They were hampered by more mistakes from QB Desmond Ridder last Sunday in London, dropping a lopsided decision against Jacksonville. I do expect them to 'get right' back at home on Sunday as they host the upstart Texans. Houston started the campaign with back-to-back losses but has since evened its record at 2-2 thanks to upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. I simply feel it is going to have a difficult time moving the football, let alone scoring against an underrated Falcons defense this week. Consider this Texans QB C.J. Stroud's 'welcome to the NFL' moment as he gets checked by Atlanta after turning heads over the last two games. Falcons fans have been calling for backup QB Taylor Heinicke to take over under center but I expect him to be stuck warming the bench for at least one more week. Too much Bijan Robinson and too much Atlanta defense in this spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Titans -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Titans have owned the Colts lately taking five straight meetings in this series and I don't think that winning streak will be in jeopardy on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. While the case can be made that Tennessee is ripe for a letdown off last week's dismantling of Cincinnati at home, I think it's more likely we finally see some consistency from Mike Vrable's squad. The Colts defensive warts finally showed in last week's 29-23 overtime loss against the Rams. That game wasn't close for the first half before Indianapolis staged a furious second half rally. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is the real deal but he doesn't have many weapons at his disposal just yet. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to make his season debut on Sunday but he'll likely be on a 'pitch count'. Yeah, this is a team with a lot of 'but's' at this point. The Titans run defense has been incredibly stingy, limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Tennessee's vaunted ground attack should feast with help on the way on the offensive line in the form of Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky v. Georgia -14.5 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. This game will get top billing thanks to the fact that both teams enter with flawless records. I expect it to be no contest, however, as Georgia proves why it is the 'Big Dawg' so to speak in SEC play. Kentucky threw a knockout punch early against Florida last week, ultimately sending the Gators spiralling down the drain in what turned out to be a rather lifeless performance. The Wildcats aren't likely to catch the Bulldogs off guard here though, not after giving them all they could handle in a 16-6 loss last season. Georgia is off to a disappointing 0-4-1 ATS start but it's worth noting that it was favored by 40 or more points in three of those games. This is the part of the schedule where I expect the Dawgs to really get rolling as they play three of their next five games in Athens with a showdown with the rival Gators in Jacksonville mixed in. Kentucky can get right back on track next week as it hosts Missouri, but here I look for it to come away looking rather ordinary. Note that Georgia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite priced between 10.5 and 21 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 29.8 points along the way. Take Georgia (8*). |
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10-07-23 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -24 | 17-39 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Virginia Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The Hokies are coming off a blowout win over a disappointing Pittsburgh squad last week so it may appear to be a bargain catching 3+ touchdowns as they go up against Florida State on Saturday. The Seminoles, however, are coming off their bye week and one of the best teams in the entire nation. I expect Florida State to make yet another statement here. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech has lost its two previous road games by 19 points at Rutgers and seven points at Marshall. The Hokies are in a bit of a state of flux right now with QB Grant Wells nursing an injury and ineffective at the best of times. Virginia Tech has completed fewer than 20 passes in all five games so far this season and that's telling when you consider it has been playing from behind most of the way. Look for the 'Noles to get whatever they want on offense en route to a lopsided victory. Take Florida State (8*). |
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 24 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this game off their bye week. I think it came at precisely the right time for Chip Kelly's Bruins as they had plenty to sort out following an ugly 14-7 road loss against Utah. Meanwhile, Washington State probably wanted to keep its foot on the gas after a red hot 4-0 start that included a thrilling 38-35 home win over Oregon State on September 23rd. It's tough for the betting marketplace to glean much from UCLA's 3-1 start. The wins were of the lukewarm variety over Coastal Carolina and San Diego State before a predictable blowout victory over FCS opponent N.C. Central. This is obviously a key spot for the Bruins before heading out on the road for consecutive games against Oregon State and Stanford where a split is likely the best they can hope for. For Washington State, it gets a winnable home date with Arizona next before travelling to face Oregon in a tough matchup. I think UCLA has an offense that will rip off plenty of big plays against a beatable Washington State defense on Saturday. While I do like the Cougars pass rush, we can anticipate the Bruins offensive line turning in a strong bounce-back showing off the poor performance against Utah. Take UCLA (10*). |
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10-07-23 | Maryland v. Ohio State -19.5 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday. While Maryland enters this contest sporting a perfect 5-0 record, I think this is the game where its offensive line woes come home to roost, so to speak. The Terrapins have reeled off three straight ATS victories but will be taking a step up in class after lining up against Virginia, Michigan State and Indiana over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Ohio State comes in fresh off its bye week, which came on the heels of a war against Notre Dame in South Bend - a game which the Buckeyes won by a score of 17-14. This game figures to be of the higher-scoring variety and that should favor Ohio State as Maryland simply doesn't have the horses to keep up in a potential shootout. I am high on Terps QB Taulia Tagovailoa, even going so far as to say he's one of, if not the most underrated quarterback in the country this year. With that said, I expect him to be under duress for most of the game on Saturday. The Terps have benefited from a whopping 12 turnovers by the opposition already this season. The shoe will be on the other foot on Saturday. Note that Maryland is a long-term 19-34 ATS when coming off a home win over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Ohio State (8*). |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Nebraska at 8 pm et on Friday. The Illinois bandwagon cleared following its 34-23 road loss against Kansas back in Week 2 (also on a Friday night). Since then, the Illini have done nothing to win bettors back, sandwiching lopsided defeats against Penn State and Purdue around a narrow home win over Florida Atlantic. I do see this as a 'get right' game for the Illini off last week's beatdown at the hands of Purdue. Illinois has a lot more going for it than Nebraska right now in my opinion. We've seen the Illini turn the tables on the Cornhuskers over the last few seasons, reeling off three straight wins in this series after dropping four in a row previously. I don't believe this is the Huskers squad to turn the tide in this series. Nebraska gave QB Heinrich Haarberg the start against Michigan last Saturday after he turned in an eye-popping performance against Louisiana Tech. The problem is, much of his success has come on the ground, not through the air. Michigan laid out a pretty good blueprint for stopping Haarberg last Saturday, as he was sacked four times and gained -2 yards on nine rush attempts. He has now completed just 38-of-72 passes this season. The Illini have a true dual-threat quarterback in Luke Altmyer. He was lifted for backup John Paddock late in last week's game at Purdue after the Boilermakers raced out to an insurmountable lead in the third quarter. I like the bounce-back spot for Altmyer and the Illini as a whole on Friday. WR Isaiah Williams has gotten going over the last couple of games, racking up 233 receiving yards on 14 catches. He's capable of laying waste to a Huskers defense that was dusted for 170 yards by Colorado WR Xavier Weaver earlier this season. Take Illinois (10*). |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on a Thursday night last season, the result was a predictable snoozefest that went Washington's way by a score of 12-7. While few are expecting much entertainment from this Thursday's rematch, I actually think we could be in for some offensive fireworks. Both teams thrived offensively last Sunday with both falling a field goal short, albeit in much different fashion. The Bears coughed up a three-touchdown lead in an eventual 34-31 loss to the Broncos, at home no less. Meanwhile, the Commanders gave the mighty Eagles all they could handle on the road in a 31-28 overtime defeat. Chicago's offense sputtered in this matchup last year but should confidently attack a leaky Commanders back-end on Thursday with QB Justin Fields coming off a confidence-building performance against Denver. While the Bears offensive line has been downright offensive so far this season, help is on the way in the form of left guard Teven Jenkins, who is expected to return from a calf injury. Washington has been wildly inconsistent on offense. That's quite simply what you're going to get with Sam Howell as your starting quarterback. I do think we'll see the Commanders get whatever they want on the ground in this game with the underrated RB duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson poised to go off against a Charmin-soft Bears defensive front. Likely to have plenty of time to operate in the pocket, Howell figures to take his shots against an injury-depleted Bears secondary as well. Chicago is allowing a ridiculous 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with the Bears playing on the road off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons, as is the situation here, with that spot producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech OVER 59 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 60 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Thursday. Last week's potential shootout involving Western Kentucky fizzled as Middle Tennessee State couldn't get anything going offensively in what turned out to be a lopsided affair. Here, I do expect that shootout to develop as the Hilltoppers head out on the road to face Louisiana Tech in Ruston on Thursday. While the Bulldogs allowed just 10 points in last week's victory, that came against one of the weakest offenses in the country in UTEP. They'll be facing a much different animal this week as Western Kentucky has displayed a sky-high scoring ceiling this season, putting up 41, 52, 10 (against Ohio State), 24 and 31 points. Note that Louisiana Tech allowed three touchdowns over a 14-minute stretch against a lukewarm Nebraska offense just two weeks ago. The Bulldogs also gave up 40 points against North Texas and 38 against SMU earlier this season. The question is whether Louisiana Tech can ramp up its own offense to keep pace. It remains up in the air whether QB Hank Bachmeier can return from injury for Louisiana Tech this week. Even if he can't go, I think Jack Turner can get the offense going in his third consecutive start. We saw positive flashes in that aforementioned game against Nebraska as he threw for 292 yards and a score while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. The Bulldogs do have gamebreakers around Turner in RB Tyre Shelton (104 rush yards on 16 carries last week) and Ole Miss transfer WR Smoke Harris. (returned a punt for a touchdown last week). Take the over (8*). |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3.5 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 14 m | Show |
Conference-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State minus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Middle Tennessee State got punched in the mouth on the road against Western Kentucky last week and ultimately couldn't overcome an off night from QB Nicholas Vattiato in a 31-10 defeat. The Blue Raiders are now just 1-4 on the season making this virtually a must-win game if they want to sniff out Bowl eligibility with seven games remaining on the schedule. Jacksonville State is well on its way in its first year of FBS play, reeling off four wins in its first five contests including an overtime victory at Sam Houston State last week. You know what you're going to get from the Gamecocks. They're going to run the football and look to create chaos on defense. The good news for the Blue Raiders is that stopping the run has been their calling card under long-time head coach Rick Stockstill (they've yielded a mediocre 4.1 yards per rush this season). This was always going to be a critical two-game road stretch for Jacksonville State and it has already earned at least a split. It's an equally critical two-game homestand for Middle Tennessee State with a matchup against a sneaky-good Louisiana Tech squad on deck next week. I think the Blue Raiders have a lot more upside on offense than they showed against a good Western Kentucky team last week. Their ground game has just gotten going recently, ripping off 217, 151 and 127 rushing yards over their last three games. Jacksonville State is up-and-coming but Middle Tennessee State has been doing it at this level for years, reaching eight Bowl games in the last 13 years including each of the last two (it defeated San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl last year). This may be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Blue Raiders but I expect them to rise to the occasion at home on Wednesday. Take Middle Tennessee State (10*). |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks -1 v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I know the case can be made to back a desperate Giants squad as they return home licking their wounds following a dismantling at the hands of the mighty 49ers last week. After all, New York has had a couple of extra days of preparation and also has the 'revenge' angle working its favor after dropping a 27-13 decision in Seattle last year. I'm not ready to buy in, however. New York will be without RB Saquon Barkley. He obviously means a lot to the Giants offense but not just for his running and catching ability but also as a pass blocker. In fact, Barkley ranked tops among all running backs in pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus last season. Without Barkley, the Giants will have a tough time staying ahead of the chains and ultimately chewing clock in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Monday. The Seahawks got off to a tough start this season with a blowout loss at home against the Rams. Of course, the Rams have turned out to be a more competitive team than most expected. Since then, Seattle has reeled off consecutive wins over the Lions and Panthers. Now it will look to keep it rolling as Geno Smith sets up in a 'revenge' spot of his own in his old stomping grounds at Met Life Stadium. There's a lot to like about the Seahawks on both sides of the football, and it sounds like they'll be getting some key pieces back healthy on the defensive side of the football this week. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -14 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals have been front-running throughout the majority of their first three games this season, unbelievably so. We haven't really seen how they operate when playing from behind but we're likely to see that on Sunday in Santa Clara and the results likely won't be pretty. We haven't seen the 49ers as healthy as they've been this season in a long time. The results have been staggering as they've outscored the opposition by a combined 90-42 margin through their first three contests. While this pointspread may seem lofty at first glance, keep in mind, the Niners have gone an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points in that situation. Last year this matchup was no contest with San Francisco winning by 28 and 25 points. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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10-01-23 | Raiders +6 v. Chargers | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. Perhaps for good reason. With that being said, I'm not ready to buy in to the Chargers, not after they earned just their first win in three tries this season last week in Minnesota. Las Vegas won't have the services of QB Jimmy Garoppolo for this game. Are Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell really a considerable downgrade? This game should be all about pounding away with RB Josh Jacobs anyway (the Chargers are giving up 4.4 yards per rush), perhaps with some splash plays mixed in to WR Davante Adams. The Chargers lost WR Mike Williams in last week's victory in Minnesota and will likely be without RB Austin Ekeler once again here as well. Of course those injuries have been factored into this line. However, I think the Raiders are being knocked for being away from home, yet they have little to no home field advantage to begin with (nor do the Chargers). Note that Los Angeles has averaged a woeful 18.6 points and has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when coming off a win by six points or less over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up 12 times over that stretch). The Chargers will be looking for revenge here after dropping the most recent meeting between these two teams last December but I think that angle is overplayed in this particular matchup. The last seven times Los Angeles has sought revenge in this series it has lost by three, lost by three, lost by three, won by one, lost by seven, lost by five and won by five. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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10-01-23 | Ravens +2 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are being lumped into the 'bad' category three games into the season but I'm not sure it's warranted. The Broncos got schooled by the Dolphins explosive offense last Sunday, allowing a ridiculous 70 points in a 50-point defeat. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 41 points on the road against the Chiefs. Here, both defenses catch a break as we're talking about two of the slowest and most punchless offenses in the entire league. Broncos head coach Sean Payton clearly isn't comfortable dialing up many aggressive plays down the field for QB Russell Wilson. The same goes for the Bears with QB Justin Fields as they continue to waste his talent with tentative play-calling. I can't help but feel we're in for a game where the two offenses move up and down the field but accomplish very little on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last three meetings in this series have produced 23, 32 and 30 total points. The 'under' is a long-term 41-16 with the Bears playing at home as an underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 37.2 points scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Atlanta at 9:30 am et on Sunday. The Jaguars got stomped at home against the Texans last Sunday. I'm not sure that result was as unexpected as most believe as Houston has owned that series and the Jags have traditionally struggled in the role of home favorite. Here, I look for Jacksonville to bounce back as it faces Atlanta in London. The Falcons stumbled to their first loss of the young season in Detroit last Sunday as they couldn't get anything going offensively. I'm not convinced Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is long for the starting job and the Lions laid out a pretty good blueprint for shutting down the Falcons offense - one that the Jags are capable of replicating on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense is far better than it showed last Sunday. Keep in mind, even on a bad day it still racked up over 400 total yards with two turnovers playing a factor. The game has come easy for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson so far but he'll run into a Jags defense that has yielded just 3.4 yards per rush this season. While motivation rarely plays a quantifiable role in the end result when it comes to the NFL, the Jags can ill afford to drop another game here, noting that they'll face the Bills next. Atlanta gets three straight winnable games next, hosting Houston and Washington before travelling to face Tampa Bay. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
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09-30-23 | West Virginia v. TCU -14 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on TCU minus the points over West Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday. Everyone was quick to point out that TCU was in line for a down year following its season-opening loss to Prime's Colorado Buffaloes. Of course, it was always going to be extremely difficult for the Horned Frogs to match last season's success but that doesn't mean it has to be a 'down year'. I like how TCU has responded since that setback, reeling off three straight wins in blowout fashion (with little fanfare). The fact that few are paying much attention to the Horned Frogs right now gives us the opportunity to back them at a reasonable price at home against West Virginia on Saturday. The Mountaineers have also responded to a season-opening loss with three straight victories. All three of those came at home, however. I suspect they're in for a rude awakening here as they run into a TCU team that has found its rhythm on offense and appears to be locked-in defensively, allowing just 2.5 yards per rush this season. Given the way the Horned Frogs have snuffed out opposing ground attacks, if West Virginia can't get its passing game going early it's likely to be a long night. Note that the Mountaineers have only thrown for 636 yards in total through four games. Take TCU (8*). |
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09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm just as high on Kansas as most but I think it's in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday as it travels to Austin to face the Longhorns. Both teams check in a perfect 4-0 on the season but as you know, all records aren't created equal. The Jayhawks best win arguably came last week at home against BYU but the Cougars are a much easier opponent to handle when you get them away from Lavell-Edwards Stadium. Texas has a 10-point win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa to its credit and absolutely lambasted Baylor in Waco last week, rolling to a 38-6 victory. The Longhorns took a wild 57-56 home loss to Kansas in 2021 personally, responding with a 55-14 demolition in this matchup last year. That was on the road. Things certainly won't get easier for the Jayhawks in enemy territory this time around. Call me crazy but I actually like Kansas' offense a little more with QB Jason Bean at the helm. That's not a knock on Jalon Daniels. I simply think Bean should be more involved in the offseason, even with Daniels QB1. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a long-term 2-11 ATS when priced as a road underdog between 14 and 17.5 points, as is the case at the time of writing, outscored by an average margin of 27.0 points in that situation. Take Texas (10*). |
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09-30-23 | Virginia v. Boston College -3.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Virginia at 2 pm et on Saturday. It's been a tough stretch for Virginia both as a football program and a school community in general following the events of last Fall. The Cavaliers are off to a predictable 0-4 start this season (they were priced as underdogs in all four games) and I'm not convinced this is the spot where they'll earn their first win of the campaign (that likely comes next week at home against FCS opponent William & Mary). Still searching for answers at the skill positions on offense, they'll have their hands full against a Boston College defense that will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after getting wrecked for 56 points on the road against Louisville last Saturday. That was an awful spot for the Eagles. This is a favorable one as they return home where we last saw them give potential national title contender Florida State all it could handle in an eventual 31-29 defeat. Here, we'll note that Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven times it has played at home after trailing its previous game by 24 points or more at halftime, which is the situation it is in on Saturday, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that spot. Take Boston College (8*). |
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09-30-23 | Utah State v. Connecticut UNDER 51.5 | 34-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Saturday. Everyone is waiting for Utah State to repeat its 78-point explosion earlier this season against Idaho State but it's just not going to happen. The Aggies did put up 38 points (in a losing effort) on the road against James Madison last week but that was thanks in large part to five Dukes turnovers. I expect Connecticut to take care of the football at the very least on Saturday (turnovers aren't really something we can accurately predict) as it looks to salvage something from this three-game homestand. The Huskies are 0-4 to start the season, topping out at 17 points in a game. While Utah State has given up its share of points this season, this is no gimme matchup for a sputtering UConn offense. Remember, the Aggies did hold Iowa to 24 points on fewer than 300 total yards of offense in its season-opener on the road, so they're capable of rising to the occasion defensively here. The Huskies gave up 31 points in last year's matchup with Utah State but that was on the road against a more talented Aggies offense than the one they'll face on Saturday. Utah State's top two contributors on that day were RB Calvin Tyler Jr. and WR Brian Cobbs. Both have since moved on and were late cuts at NFL training camps in August. Take the under (8*). |
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09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky | Top | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kentucky over Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kentucky has defeated Florida in each of the last two seasons and there's little reason to believe that this is the Gators squad to rise up and end that streak. Florida has turned things around with three straight victories but I haven't forgotten its toothless performance on the road against Utah in its season-opener. The Wildcats have predictably dismantled all four of their opponents to date (they were favored by double-digits in all four games). I think we'll see Kentucky keep it rolling here, knowing it is likely headed for its first loss of the campaign by way of a trip to Athens to face the number-one ranked Georgia Bulldogs next week. For the Gators, they can likely pick back up on their winning ways over the next two weeks as they host Vanderbilt before travelling to face South Carolina (those two games precede their own annual showdown with mighty Georgia). Kentucky has had a tendency to start fast in recent years, going 14-4 ATS in the first half of the season going back to 2021. In those games, it has outscored the opposition by an impressive average margin of 12.5 points. Florida falls into a tough spot here, noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a home victory. Take Kentucky (10*). |
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09-29-23 | Utah v. Oregon State -4 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Friday. This is a massive revenge game for Oregon State after it dropped a lopsided 42-16 decision on the road against Utah last October. Not only that but the Beavers will be looking to bounce back from last week's debacle on the road against Washington State, in which they gave up a whopping 38 points and lost by a field goal. I do think Oregon State is a much better defensive team than it showed in that contest. Meanwhile, Utah was bailed out by its defense in last week's 14-7 snoozefest victory over UCLA. The Utes offense managed just north of 2.0 yards per rush and 117 yards through the air in that game. Clearly, Utah is missing QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe. Their injury situations remain veiled in a cloud of mystery on a weekly basis. This is a game where I expect the Beavers to go to work with their ground attack and rely on their defense to come up with just enough splash plays to secure the victory by margin. Note that Oregon State is on a perfect 9-0 ATS run at home against Pac-12 opponents and those games haven't been particularly close as the Beavers have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.6 points along the way. The last time these two teams met in Corvallis two years ago the Beavers rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to win by a score of 42-34. I expect this one to be a little more straight-forward. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are off to solid 2-1 starts to the season. That was expected of the Lions, even if their path to get there has been a little surprising. Few gave the Packers much of a chance as they began the post-Aaron Rodgers era. However, Green Bay has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and I think that will prove to be the case again on Thursday. The Packers find themselves in a rare 'triple revenge' spot in this series having dropped the last three matchups going back to early 2022. They actually did a tremendous job of containing a terrific Lions offense in last season's two meetings, allowing a grand total of 35 points and holding WR Amon-Ra St-Brown to just 104 scoreless yards. While most consider Jordan Love a considerable downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, he won't have too high of expectations thrown his way after Rodgers threw just two touchdown passes and four interceptions against Detroit last season. Love is expected to get some help this week with the return of RB Aaron Jones and the season debut of WR Christian Watson. I expect both to make an impact. Defensively, the Packers have some work to do at the back-end, especially if Jaire Alexander is forced to miss his second straight game. The good news is, the Lions offense hasn't been quite the same on the road, with Jared Goff looking like a completely different quarterback away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Green Bay pass rush specialist Rashan Gary has looked like a man on a mission after last year's devastating ACL injury and is a true game-wrecker on the line. Here, we'll note that the Lions are a long-term 12-30 ATS when priced as a road favorite of less than a touchdown, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Packers are a long-term 108-79 when playing at home on six days or less rest, outscoring the opposition by 8.2 points on average and a terrific 11-2 ATS in an underdog role over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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09-28-23 | Temple +3.5 v. Tulsa | 26-48 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Temple plus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. There's not much separating these two teams as they kick off AAC play on Thursday night in Tulsa. The Temple football program hasn't provided much excitement at all in recent years and 2023 has been no different so far. A number of key Owls sat out last Saturday's blowout loss to Miami. While those players were certainly banged-up, the thinking from head coach Stan Drayton was probably to sit them in what set up as a likely defeat and have them ready for this conference play opener on Thursday. Last year, Tulsa got by Temple by a 27-16 score. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane were led by QB Davis Brin, RB Deneric Prince and WR J.C. Santana in that game. None of those players are back this year. Temple needs sharper play from QB E.J. Warner - that's right, Kurt's son - and I think it will get that against a manageable defensive opponent here. The Tulsa offense was built around dual-threat QB Braylon Braxton but he's been hampered by an ankle injury since Week 1. Even if he can play on Thursday, he likely won't be 100% healthy. The Owls will hope to have standout LB Yvandy Rigby back on the field after he missed last week's game. He had 11 tackles and a sack in last year's matchup with Tulsa. Layton Jordan remains in the fold as well - he was outstanding, chipping in with two sacks and an interception against the Golden Hurricane last year. Take Temple (8*). |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky OVER 60 | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Western Kentucky enters this game as a considerable favorite but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Hilltoppers 'taking the air out of the football' at any point in this game. WKU ranks 104th in the country in time of possession. The Hilltoppers play fast but are coming off a poor offensive showing in last week's 27-24 loss at Troy. I don't expect them to have any trouble bouncing back in that department here at home, where they've put up a whopping 93 points in two games this season. The one thing Middle Tennessee State does have going for it here is the 'revenge' factor as it has lost four straight meetings in this series. The Blue Raiders have a quarterback worthy of our support in Nicholas Vattiato. He's proven more than capable of moving the football through the air and on the ground. We've yet to see them hit full stride this season but I do think the Blue Raiders have the right personnel around Vattiato to have a breakout performance here. Watch for WR's D.J. Chisolm and Elijah Metcalf along with RB Frank Peasant. All three are potential gamebreakers. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 52 points. That was a sloppy contest that featured five turnovers between the two teams. I like the fact that both teams are coming off a loss this time around as I believe that leads to aggressive play-calling here. Take the over (8*). |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals -1.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Everyone is ready to write off the Bengals following an ugly 0-2 start and now with QB Joe Burrow likely to miss Monday's showdown with the Rams. I actually think this is an excellent opportunity for Cincinnati to silence its critics and get its season turned around against a very beatable opponent. The Rams have been cooked by opposing ground attacks through the first two games this season, allowing north of 5.0 yards per rush. The Bengals are well-positioned to attack Los Angeles on the ground with RB Joe Mixon, especially if Burrow can't suit up. Backup QB Jake Browning has flashed at times in the preseason, particularly with his mobility. The Rams have Aaron Donald on defense much not much else. While WR Puka Nacua has stole the show through two games, I don't think we're seeing much more than the ghost of Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Expect the Bengals to make a statement. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Buccaneers have displayed a rock solid offensive floor in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up 45, 27, 28 and 31 points in four meetings going back to 2015 including two since 2021. No, Tampa Bay doesn't have Tom Brady running the show anymore, but I do think it can find success with Baker Mayfield working against what looks to be a pass-funnel Eagles defense so far this season. Injuries to Avante Maddox and Nakobe Dean have certainly played a role in Philadelphia's early-season deficiencies on the defensive side of the football. On the flip side, this is a double-revenge spot for the Eagles after dropping each of its last two matchups against the Bucs. Note that Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 25.7 points per game when coming off consecutive contests in which it gave up 17 points or less over the last three seasons (six-game sample size), leading to an average total of 49.5 points in that situation. The Eagles offense has yet to really hit its stride through two games but still managed to put up a total of 59 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Cowboys -13 v. Cardinals | 16-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute walk for the Cowboys as they look to build off of consecutive blowout wins over the Giants and Jets with another lopsided victory over the Cardinals on Sunday. Dallas did lose standout CB Trevon Diggs to a season-ending ACL earlier this week but that's of little consequence in this particular matchup. The Cowboys figure to do whatever they want offensively in this game against a depleted Cardinals defense that folded the tent in the second half against the Giants lukewarm offense last Sunday. Meanwhile, even without Diggs, the Dallas defense figures to make life miserable for the Arizona offense here. The Cowboys have absolutely stymied opposing ground attacks in the early going this season and that should leave Cards QB Joshua Dobbs on an island for much of the afternoon on Sunday. This a 'name your score' type of game for Dallas and the end result shouldn't be pretty for Arizona. Take Dallas (8*). |
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09-24-23 | Bears +13 v. Chiefs | 10-41 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs 'got right' with a win on the road against Jacksonville last week. Here, most are expecting them to run away and hide against the lowly Bears but I think we're in for a more competitive affair than anticipated. Chicago has so many issues right now, not only on the field but when it comes to the coaching staff as well. QB Justin Fields called out his coaches earlier this week and then an FBI raid led to the resignation of defensive coordinator Alan Williams. With all of that being said, I think getting on the field will be a welcome distraction on Sunday afternoon. I actually have high hopes for Bears QB Justin Fields in this matchup. The Chiefs defense got a big boost from the return of DT Chris Jones last week. That same emotional spark won't be there this week. Jones still figures to disrupt the Bears offensive gameplan but I do think that Fields has the mobility to be a little more elusive than Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was last Sunday. Offensively, I still think the Chiefs are a bit in disarray. TE Travis Kelce returned last week and he figures to play a prominent role in the offense this week. The Bears know what's coming, however, and I do think they can do enough to slow the Kansas City attack on Sunday. Note that Chicago has held AFC West opponents to just 17 points on average in their last 33 matchups, outscored by an average margin of only 0.2 points along the way. Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-24-23 | Panthers +5 v. Seahawks | 27-37 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Long a house of horrors for opposing teams, the Seahawks are in a bit of a nightmare spot of their own on Sunday, primed for a letdown off last week's 'upset' victory in Detroit. Carolina is off to an unsurprising 0-2 start and now travels on a short week after dropping a three-point decision at home against the Saints on Monday. Bryce Young won't play this week. That means the offense is left in the capable (?) hands of veteran QB Andy Dalton. I like the matchup for the Panthers offense here as they take on a depleted Seahawks defense that will be without a number of key contributors in the secondary. Seattle's defense isn't all that good at the best of times so without multiple key pieces it figures to be in tough. I actually feel Panthers RB Miles Sanders could be the x-factor here against a Seahawks defense that has proven vulnerable through the first two games of the season. Seattle is dealing with a cluster of injuries to its offensive line while QB Geno Smith has looked very much like a guy that is shouldering the weight of the offense thanks to an ineffective backfield. With DK Metcalf and Will Dissly banged-up there's just not a whole lot to get excited about with this Seahawks offense. Take Carolina (8*). |
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09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings OVER 54 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the highest total on Sunday's board and for good reason. While the Chargers are off to an 0-2 start, this might be one of their best matchups of the entire season as they face a Minnesota defense that doesn't get to opposing quarterbacks and doesn't defend the pass. Austin Ekeler is sidelined but that's of little consequence as the Chargers should be able to relentlessly attack the Vikings defense through the air on Sunday. Note that Minnesota is yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush this season, opening the door for Los Angeles to get whatever it wants offensively in this one. Likewise, the Vikings find themselves in a smash spot offensively as they are expected to welcome back a pair of key cogs on their offensive line in Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Bradbury. The sky really is the limit for this Minnesota offense, as we've seen glimpses of against the Bucs and Eagles in the first two weeks of the season. With the Chargers missing LB Eric Kendricks and perennially under-achieving on defense the door is open for the Vikes to go off at home on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-24-23 | Bills v. Commanders +6.5 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -104 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills had little trouble shaking off a season-opening loss to the Jets, rebounding to crush the Raiders at home as a big favorite last Sunday. With that being said, I do expect them to be in for a fight in Washington this week. The Commanders are off to a surprising 2-0 start (to some). A win was certainly expected in their opener against the lowly Cardinals while last week's 'upset' victory in Denver was of the mild variety to be sure. Regardless, I do feel Washington matches up reasonably well with Buffalo this week and we're being offered a generous helping of points. The Commanders always seem to boast a fierce pass rush and this year has been no different. While few have paid much attention to their first two contests, they've racked up a whopping 10 sacks while applying heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs and Russell Wilson. They'll be facing a much tougher opposing quarterback here, but also one that tends to get turnover-happy when under duress (as we saw in Week 1 against the Jets). Buffalo continues to employ a three-man rotation in the backfield and I think that has more to do with no one stepping up and taking the RB1 job than anything else. Washington hasn't given opposing running backs much room to run, allowing only 3.4 yards per rush so far this season. On the flip side, I think this Bills defense is beatable. I was fairly high on the Buffalo defense out of the gates this season, especially with the trio of Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde finally all healthy at the same time in the secondary. In watching their first two games, however, I've seen a defense that looks vulnerable, particularly in the back-end. Neither the Jets or Raiders had the personnel to really stretch the field (due to Aaron Rodgers' injury and Jimmy Garoppolo's ineptness) but both teams still came up with some splash plays through the air (the Raiders game-opening touchdown drive last Sunday comes to mind). Here, Commanders QB Sam Howell should be able to test Buffalo's pass defense, working behind an offensive line that is one of the more underrated in the entire league. Washington has speed to burn at the receiver position with Terry McLaurin leading the way. TE Logan Thomas is questionable to play this week but his possible absence would only mean more touches for the likes of McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Take Washington (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
AFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the Patriots defense as they line up against a Jets offense that is completely out of sorts after losing QB Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in Week 1. Compounding matters is the fact that New York is also without LT Duane Brown, meaning it's all systems go for the New England pass rush on Sunday. Bill Bellichick has owned Jets QB Zach Wilson and given the fact that New England enters this game sporting an 0-2 record, I don't expect the Pats to hold anything back gameplan-wise on Sunday. I've actually come away encouraged by the Pats offensive play-calling through two games under coordinator Bill O'Brien. There's not a lot New England can do schematically to circumvent an outstanding Jets secondary in this matchup, but I do think the Pats can move the football well enough to let their defense take care of the rest on Sunday. The Jets are obviously in desperate need of a spark offensively but they're unlikely to get it until Zach Wilson is sent to the bench, perhaps in favor of another veteran quarterback. Dalvin Cook certainly hasn't been the answer out of the backfield. All he's doing is eating into the workload of RB Breece Hall. Try as they might, I don't expect the Jets to break through offensively on Sunday. Take New England (10*). |
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09-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Hawaii OVER 56.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Hawaii at 11:59 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this game riding two-game 'under' streaks. I look for a different story to unfold as they match up on Saturday. New Mexico State certainly isn't known for its offense but it has come around with dual-threat QB Diego Pavia running the show. The Rainbow Warriors defense entered the season with some optimism thanks to plenty of returning talent. A season-ending injury to LB Logan Taylor set them back after getting off to a rough start. The good news for Hawaii is that it does have a pulse on offense this year. You wouldn't know if based on their lukewarm performance on the road against Oregon last Saturday but this group is capable of balling out, especially against a beatable defense like the Aggies. Both teams have shown sky-high ceilings in terms of offensive production in this matchup with New Mexico State putting up 45 points despite possessing the football for just over 27 minutes in last year's meeting. Hawaii is just one year removed from hanging 48 points on the Aggies and has scored 26 points or more in five straight meetings in this series. Take the over (8*). |
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09-23-23 | Memphis +6.5 v. Missouri | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Missouri at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. While both of these teams enter this matchup sporting identical 3-0 records, I think Memphis is the real deal while the jury is still out on Missouri. One thing I do know is the Tigers would likely prefer to be playing at their home stadium rather than at the cavernous Dome at America's Center in St. Louis (the former home of the Rams) after a raucous upset win over Kansas State in front of 62,000 Mizzou faithful last Saturday. The Tigers have the built-in advantage of having had a couple extra days of preparation after playing a week ago Thursday against Navy. The fact that Memphis 'only' won that game by four points certainly plays into our favor here as I think the Tigers are being overlooked by most. In watching that victory over Navy, it was clear that Memphis was the better team. It simply got caught flat-footed at times against the Midshipmen's triple-option. Missouri is hoping to have QB Brady Cook under center after he suffered a knee injury in last week's win. Regardless, I do expect the Mizzou Tigers to lean heavily on their ground attack here. In fact, I think both teams have a vested interest in churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten proceedings on Saturday. Remember, Mizzou is just one game removed from a narrow 23-19 home win over Middle Tennessee State. That game certainly could have gone either way. Were it not for the Tigers falling on a fumble in their own end zone over halfway through the fourth quarter, they just as easily could have lost that contest by the narrowest of margins. That's the same Middle Tennessee State team that is just 1-2 on the season and got drilled by 49 points by Alabama in Week 1. Memphis likely welcomed the test at the hands of Navy last week after cruising to wins by 42 and 34 points in its first two games this season. Take Memphis (10*). |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 22 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei has looked like the right fit since transferring from Clemson, where he never lived up to sky-high expectations. With that said, he's been able to ease into proceedings with Oregon State by facing San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State in the first three games with the latter two contests coming at home. I do think the Beavers are in for a challenge on Saturday as they travel to Pullman to take on fellow undefeated Washington State. While the Cougars are coming off a 64-point explosion last Saturday, expectations should be tempered noting that came against an FCS opponent in Northern Colorado. This will be their toughest test to date - certainly from a defensive standpoint, with Oregon State having allowed a grand total of 33 points through three games. Back to Uiagalelei for a moment, he is coming off a two-interception game against San Diego State and I do expect the Beavers to scale things back a little here against an opportunistic Washington State defense. The Cougars boast one of the best pass rushes in the country led by ends Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking from the Beavers on Saturday as they look to get the football out of Uiagalelei's hands quickly and into the hands of their playmakers. The story isn't all that different for the Cougars. QB Cam Ward is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in my opinion. Yet, in a similar matchup two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin he completed just 20-of-32 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns - an efficient if not explosive performance. Ward was sacked seven times in the Cougars first two games against FBS foes this season so like the Beavers, I think we'll see the Cougars lean heavily on their short passing attack (and ground game) in an attempt to control proceedings at home on Saturday. This was an extremely high-scoring series from 2013 to 2020 but since then we've seen each of the last two matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total, including last year's 24-10 Oregon State victory in Corvallis. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-23 | Colorado v. Oregon -21 | 6-42 | Win | 100 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Colorado was riding a wave last week and that surge carried it to a tougher-than-expected overtime win over Colorado State. I don't think the wheels are about to come off for Prime's Buffaloes but I do think the schedule is going to play a factor in the short-term with this trip to Autzen Stadium followed by next week's showdown with USC in Boulder. The Ducks already have an 80+ point performance on their resume this season, albeit against an FCS opponent in Portland State. They easily could have broken 70 points last Saturday were it not for easing off the gas up huge in the second half against Hawaii. Oregon got whatever it wanted in that game and I'm not convinced this Saturday's affair will be all that different. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders has been able to pick apart opposing defenses with pinpoint accuracy through three games. He hasn't shown the ability to pick up yardage with his legs and has already absorbed a whopping 15 sacks. I would anticipate the Ducks attacking him from all angles on Saturday. While Oregon is known for its offensive prowess, it has it's share of ballers on the defensive side as well. Speaking of that Ducks offense, it is quite simply one of the most difficult attacks to defend in all of college football. QB Bo Nix looks completely in control of the offense in his second year at the helm. Oregon's schedule is going to get a lot tougher with road tests at Washington and Utah in the not so far-off distance. For now, we can expect another party in Eugene on Saturday afternoon. Take Oregon (8*). |
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09-23-23 | Boston College v. Louisville -13.5 | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Boston College at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a revenge spot for Louisville after it was stunned 34-33 as nearly a two-touchdown road favorite in this matchup last season. The Cardinals looked rather punchless in last week's 21-14 win at Indiana. Keep in mind, they had scored a whopping 95 points in two games prior to that. I look for them to get back on track here as they catch the Eagles in a letdown spot after giving Florida State all they could handle last week. It's worth noting that while Boston College did end up scoring 29 points in that contest, it was held out of the end zone from 10 minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over one minute was left in the third quarter. There was a point late in the third quarter where Florida State was up by three touchdowns before it let down its guard. Here, I'm confident we'll see the undefeated Cardinals pour it on, noting that they also let off the gas and it nearly cost them last week as they carried a 21-0 lead into halftime before giving up two unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter (that was it for scoring in that one). Take Louisville (8*). |
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09-22-23 | Boise State -6 v. San Diego State | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams has set the world on fire in the early going this season. Boise State got off to a miserable start with a blowout loss at Washington before dropping its home opener against Central Florida. It did have a true 'get right' performance in last week's rout of FCS squad North Dakota. I'm not sure how much bettors know about the Broncos just yet but I still think this team has the potential to have a positive year. San Diego State is off to a 2-2 start. It held up reasonably well defensively but couldn't produce enough offense in last week's loss at Oregon State. Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Aztecs bounce back offensively against what I feel is a much better Boise State defense than most give it credit for (largely due to that awful performance against Washington in Week 1). I can't help but feel the book is out on Aztecs QB Jaylen Mayden. He stepped in and performed well last season but is off to a shaky start this year, especially as a passer (he did have a breakout rushing performance against FCS opponent Idaho State). The Aztecs don't have the same number of offensive weapons as the Broncos in my opinion. Boise State QB Taylen Green has been almost a mirror image to Mayden. I do like his upside as a passer and he also has a terrific backfield to lean on, even if George Holani can't go again here. Ashton Jeanty fumbled twice last week but did manage to score three touchdowns. He had a big performance against UCF two weeks ago, running for 115 yards while also adding 97 yards receiving. Again, it's the Broncos defense that I expect to fuel this performance on Friday. Boise State boasts a number of playmakers on that side of the football, led by star-in-the-making CB Rodney Robinson, and draws what I feel is a favorable matchup against an Aztecs offense that might be that bad. Take Boise State (8*). |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue UNDER 53.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Purdue at 7 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin entered this season with a new look on offense, aiming to ratchet up the pace and sling the football around the field a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing. So far, it's been a mixed bag. The Badgers opened the season with a dominant performance against Buffalo, rolling to a 38-17 victory. From there they travelled to face Washington State and dropped a 31-22 decision. Last week they forced six turnovers in a 35-14 home win over Georgia Southern. Wisconsin is in for a tough test on Friday as it faces a Purdue squad that will be in a foul mood following a 35-20 home loss to Syracuse last Saturday. Don't sleep on the Boilermakers defense. They were hung out to dry by the offense last week as Purdue turned the football over four times in that setback against the Orange. Keep in mind, the Boilers are just one game removed from holding Virginia Tech to 17 points on fewer than 300 total yards in Blacksburg. I do think we see a rather conservative offensive gameplan from Purdue here after last week's turnover-happy performance. The Boilers know they can ill afford to give a good Wisconsin offense any short fields to work with on Friday. For the most part, Purdue hasn't shown much big play potential on offense in the early going this season. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking down the field on Friday, noting that they did control the time of possession in last year's matchup with the Badgers, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes, albeit in a 35-24 defeat. Enough about Purdue, Wisconsin couldn't have been pleased with its defensive performance against Georgia Southern last week, allowing the Eagles to complete 33-of-52 passes for 383 yards. Were it not for all of the GSU turnovers, the end result might have been much different. In the Badgers toughest test so far this season they did hold an ascending Washington State offense to 'only' 31 points in enemy territory. In that contest, there was a stretch where the Badgers didn't allow an offensive touchdown for just shy of 39 minutes from early in the second quarter until the fourth quarter. All told, Wisconsin has given up seven offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters of action this season. Offensively, the Badgers would like to shift to a more pass-happy attack but so far they've topped out at 278 passing yards through three games. The Badgers ground attack is as good as any in the nation but I do think the Boilers can limit the big home run plays here. I'm very high on Purdue's defense in the second and third level in particular. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We saw a predictably high-scoring affair on Thursday Night Football last week as the Vikings and Eagles lit up the scoreboard in Philadelphia. I expect a much different story to play out this week as the Giants and 49ers do battle on a short week in Santa Clara. New York got off to a sluggish start in Arizona last Sunday but ultimately got it together in the second half in a massive come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals. The Giants will face a much more difficult test here, however, as the 49ers enter sporting a perfect 2-0 record off back-to-back road wins to open the campaign. I don't anticipate Giants QB Daniel Jones having much time to operate behind a banged-up offensive line. The 49ers boast one of the league's fiercest pass rushes and I'm certain we'll see Brian Daboll's employ a gameplan centered around Jones getting the football out quick, not to mention a healthy dose of the Giants ground game. The effectiveness of that New York backfield is in question with RB Saquon Barkley questionable to play after getting hurt on Sunday. For the 49ers, I look for them to go a little more conservative here as they play on a short week following consecutive road games. This is a game where they should be able to control proceedings from the jump and there should come a point where they can essentially take the air out of the football. While QB Brock Purdy has been efficient through the first two games (and throughout the early stages of his career) he does have a tendency to distribute the football close to the line of scrimmage rather than looking for big plays down field. I expect to see a number of long, clock-eating drives from the 49ers in particular in this one, which of course serves us well with the 'under'. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 131-90 with the Giants coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 51 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This total has been climbing since opening, and for good reason. Coastal Carolina cruised to a 41-24 victory in this matchup last year but I'm anticipating a more competitive affair this time around and that should lend itself to a high-scoring contest. Georgia State actually brought in former Coastal Carolina defensive coordinator Chad Staggs to turn things around on that side of the football. The jury is still out as to whether that will be the case, however. The Panthers have performed well against a pair of bad offenses in Connecticut and Charlotte over the last two games but keep in mind, they gave up 35 points including four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch against FCS squad Rhode Island in their season-opener. This is a Georgia State defense that has lost a ton of key parts from last year's squad - keeping in mind, last year's defense wasn't very good to begin with. It's a similar story with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers lost two of their best defenders from a year ago in Jerrod Clark and Josaiah Stewart and again, that was a defense that wasn't very good. Offensively, both teams are loaded and led by experienced quarterbacks in Darren Grainger and Grayson McCall. Not household names by any means but two of the better leaders in the country. While many teams are already dealing with injuries to key players at the skill positions on offense, that's not the case with the Panthers and Chanticleers as they both enter with clean injury reports. In last year's meeting between these teams, Coastal Carolina held onto the football for more than 40 minutes. Yet that contest still produced 65 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-23 | Saints -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Saints may not be an elite NFC team but I do think they'll be in the playoff conversation all season. Here, they'll look to keep pace with the division-leading Buccaneers and Falcons, who both secured their second straight wins to open the season yesterday afternoon. I think New Orleans is in excellent position to move to 2-0 as well with this favorable Monday night draw in Carolina. The Saints only eked out a one-point victory over Tennessee in what was a defensive slugfest last Sunday. There were lots of positives to take away from that low-scoring affair, however. QB Derek Carr looked very comfortable in the Saints pocket - this has the potential to be a terrific fit for the 32-year old quarterback. He won't be asked to do too much but does have the tools to distribute the football to a sneaky-good group of receivers and tight ends led by super sophomore Chris Olave. This is a potential blow-up spot for RB Jamaal Williams as well as he once again handles the lead back role. The Panthers were not good against the run in last Sunday's lopsided loss in Atlanta. Offensively, the Panthers have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams. While it's important not to overreact to Week 1 results, Carolina's 'O' looked lukewarm at best, relying heavily on Bryce Young's athleticism at quarterback to elevate a rag-tag cast of weapons (I use the term 'weapons' lightly in this case). The Saints defense put the clamps on the Titans offense last week and this is a similarly favorable matchup. Note that while the Panthers have won consecutive meetings in this series, their offensive ceiling remains low, producing 26 points or fewer in seven straight matchups with the Saints. In a similar vein, New Orleans has produced 18 points or less in each of the last four meetings but again, it brought in veteran QB Carr to give the offense a lift and I think we'll see it produce on Monday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys UNDER 38.5 | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in Week 1 and I expect more of the same as they match up on Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Jets built their offense around Aaron Rodgers in the offseason so it's not stretch to say it's 'back to the drawing board' with Zach Wilson under center in the near-term. This is a nightmarish matchup against a Cowboys defense that appeared to be in midseason form against the other New York team last Sunday night. I certainly wouldn't anticipate an overly aggressive offensive gameplan from Gang Green here. With that being said, the Cowboys have to respect the Jets defense as well. New York made Josh Allen and the Bills look average at best in Monday's come-from-behind victory. While the Jets will give up their share of yardage on the ground, their secondary is among the best in the league and I don't think we'll see Mike McCarthy fire up a pass-first gameplan on Sunday afternoon. As a considerable home favorite, I believe it's in the Cowboys best interest to take what they can on the ground and effectively shorten proceedings here. Take the under (8*). |
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09-17-23 | Giants -4 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Giants laid an egg at home against Dallas last Sunday night. That wasn't all that unexpected as the Cowboys have quite simply owned the G-Men in recent years. Here, New York draws a favorable bounce-back matchup in Arizona. The Cardinals kept things closer than expected on the road against Washington last Sunday, in what turned out to be an incredibly sloppy affair. Their offense looked lukewarm with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. I can't imagine Dobbs is long for the job but Arizona's options are limited with an inexperienced rookie in Clayton Tune behind him. This is a matchup where the Giants defensive front should feast against a leaky Cardinals offensive line. On the flip side, Arizona was ripped for just shy of 100 yards by Commanders running backs last Sunday and should get similarly exposed by Saquon Barkley here. I think it's important not to overreact to the Giants Week 1 result as I do still believe this is an upgraded offensive team in their second season the guidance of head coach Brian Daboll. Offseason acquisition Darren Waller wasn't much of a factor against the Cowboys but should rebound along with Giants QB Daniel Jones in this far more forgiving matchup on Sunday. Here, we'll note that New York is a long-term 13-3 ATS when coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, as is the case here. Take New York (8*). |
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09-17-23 | 49ers -7 v. Rams | Top | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rams turned in one of the most impressive performances in Week 1 as they routed the division rival Seahawks, on the road no less. I expect them to suffer considerable regression here in Week 2, however, as they host the 49ers. Los Angeles is between a rock and a hard place defensively in this matchup. Last week, the Rams were able to play a very conservative style against the Seahawks, keeping everything in front of them and frustrating QB Geno Smith and his receiving corps all afternoon long. The 49ers are capable of taking full advantage of that type of gameplan though with RB Christian McCaffrey fresh off an efficient performance against the Steelers last week. It seemed as though the jury was still out on QB Brock Purdy over the course of the offseason but he looked incredible in a game managing role last Sunday and should be able to repeat that performance here. The Rams offense is still missing WR Cooper Kupp and QB Matt Stafford, while impressive in last week's win, is likely to be under duress for much of the afternoon on Sunday. The Steelers offense was arguably better positioned to move the football on this San Francisco defense last Sunday and couldn't get anything going. Pittsburgh managed only 62 rushing yards against the Niners defensive front and you could make the case that Los Angeles boasts a weaker backfield tandem in Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, even though the latter did impress against a swinging gate Seahawks defense last Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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09-17-23 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 47 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders defense was never really tested in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Denver as the Broncos employed an extremely conservative gameplan. I expect a completely different story to unfold here as the Bills look to bounce back following Monday's ugly overtime loss against the Jets. New York made Buffalo's offense look completely average in that contest but make no mistake, this is still an elite Bills 'O'. The fact that the Raiders held the Broncos to only 16 points on less than 300 total yards simply didn't tell the whole story. Denver actually got most of what it wanted on offense in that contest but rarely pushed the football down the field. There's a path for the Raiders offense to make some headway against the Bills here. Buffalo's defense looked downright awful against the run on Monday night, allowing Jets RB Breece Hall to get loose for big gains on a number of occasions. Las Vegas' offensive gameplan will likely center around RB Josh Jacobs here. While the Raiders will be without WR Jakobi Meyers after he hauled in two touchdown catches last Sunday, that only means more looks for DaVante Adams who remains a gamebreaker despite getting up there in age. The Bills secondary held up fine on Monday against Zach Wilson and while this does figure to be another favorable matchup against Jimmy Garoppolo, I do think Adams can win his share of matchups. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-23 | Hawaii v. Oregon OVER 68.5 | 10-55 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Oregon at 8 pm et on Saturday. This matchup has all the makings of a shootout, even if it does turn out to be a lopsided affair. Hawaii got its feet under it in a 31-20 win over FCS squad Albany last week - its first victory in three tries this season. There's a lot to like about the Hawaii offense. QB Brayden Schager is purely a pocket-passer - a little different than we're used to seeing from the Rainbow Warriors in recent years. Despite being sacked a ridiculous 14 times through three games, he's still managed to throw for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns which says a lot about the explosiveness of this aerial attack. With WR Steven McBride emerging as a touchdown machine and Pofele Ashlock a big play waiting to happen, Oregon can't afford to sleepwalk through this game. On the flip side, we know what the Ducks are capable of offensively. They're just one game removed from an 81-point outburst, even if it did come against an FCS opponent in Portland State. Last week, Oregon pulled out a hard-fought overtime win at Texas Tech. Nothing came easy for it in that contest but I expect the Ducks to get loose again offensively here. Note that Hawaii lost the heart-and-soul of its defense, captain Logan Taylor to a season-ending knee injury last week. He's a tackling machine and his absence will be felt right away against Oregon. There was a 32-minute stretch in Oregon's season-opener in which it scored nine, yes nine touchdowns. The Ducks didn't have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in that rout but still tacked on two more touchdown's the game's final 12 minutes. That tells you all you need to know about this year's Oregon team. I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (8*). |
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09-16-23 | Washington -16.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Michigan State at 5 pm et on Saturday. This will be a 'revenge game' for Michigan State after it dropped a 39-28 decision in Seattle last September. Instead of earning an ounce of revenge, however, I expect things to go even worse for the Spartans this time around. Washington is loaded on both sides of the football. The Huskies have already padded their stats with lopsided home wins over Boise State and Tulsa. This is arguably their first real test of the campaign although I use the term 'test' loosely. I think Washington will relish the opportunity to go to East Lansing and prove its worth here. Relatively green in the secondary, the Spartans will be hard-pressed to contain the Huskies dynamic WR duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. The fact that do-it-all WR Ja'Lynn Polk is only the Huskies third best option is staggering. He's already racked up 182 receiving yards to go along with a score through the air and another on the ground. Michael Penix still isn't a household name in the college streets but it should be. Despite the lopsided nature of the first two games, Washington has kept its foot on the gas for four quarters in both contests and Penix has racked up 859 passing yards and a ridiculous eight touchdowns. And we haven't even talked about the Huskies defense yet. They arguably have NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. All indications are that elite pass-rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui sat out last Saturday's game as a precaution only and should be back on the field for this one. Even if he isn't able to go, the Huskies have tremendous depth. I'm confident we'll see Washington lock down what I feel is a lukewarm Michigan State offense on saturday and create plenty of 'chaos' plays. Michigan State is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS but who has it played? Central Michigan and FCS squad Richmond. The Spartans have played well but certainly not at the same level as the Huskies. Keep in mind, in their opener they didn't even reach the end zone until less than a minute was left in the first half against CMU. They do have some nice pieces in place on offense but will take some time to grow. QB Noah Kim is the starter for now but I think it's only a matter of time before highly-touted Katin Houser takes over. The backfield job likely belongs to UConn transfer Nathan Carter with Jalen Berger dealing with an injury and questionable to play. At wide receiver Michigan State has lost a ton of talent from last year's team. Remember, WR Keon Coleman went off for nine catches, 116 yards and two touchdowns in last year's matchup against Washington. He's now tearing it up for Florida State. Take Washington (10*). |
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09-16-23 | Virginia Tech v. Rutgers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Rutgers at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect both of these teams to employ a 'hide the quarterback' style of offense on Saturday afternoon in Piscataway. Virginia Tech QB Grant Wells was fine in a favorable Week 1 matchup against a rebuilding Old Dominion defense but he suffered considerable regression last Saturday against Purdue and was ultimately lifted from the game due to an ankle injury (he's questionable to play this week). Backup Kyron Drones entered and completed only 2-of-7 passes. Regardless who is under center against Rutgers on Saturday, this is an extremely difficult draw and one where I fully expect the Hokies to lean toward the run in an effort to effectively shorten this game. The good news for the Hokies is that their defense is fine. Last week against Purdue, Virginia Tech allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then held the Boilermakers out of the end zone until nearly midway through the fourth quarter. This is a manageable matchup against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is off to a perfect 2-0 start, scoring 60 points in the process. With that said, QB Gavin Wimsatt has completed just 27-of-50 passes, throwing for 163 and 198 yards in the first two contests. A lot of that has had to do with game script with the Scarlet Knights controlling proceedings. Here, I do think we see a more competitive affair and like the Hokies, the Scarlet Knights have a vested interest in running the football with Kyle Monangai (he's coming off a 165-yard outburst against Temple) and leaning heavily on their tremendous defense. While Rutgers did score 36 points last week, after reaching the end zone with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter it didn't record another touchdown until over three minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple came unglued late, allowing two more touchdowns in the game's final six minutes. I do expect Virginia Tech to show a lot more poise and composure than the Owls. With that said, Rutgers has played eight quarters of football so far this season, pitching shutouts in six of those. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-23 | Virginia v. Maryland -14.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. Don't be fooled by the lopsided final score - Maryland got a scare from Charlotte last Saturday. The Terrapins actually didn't score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter in that contest. The good news is, their offense got rolling from there, ultimately producing four touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch from the third to fourth quarter. They even sniffed out an ATS cover (as 24.5-point favorites) before Charlotte produced a touchdown drive in the final two minutes. Nevertheless, there were positives for Maryland to take away. After allowing a touchdown just three minutes into the first quarter it held the 49ers out of the end zone until that final score with under two minutes left in the game. The Terps have allowed just two offensive touchdowns through their first two games. There's plenty to clean up offensively although the offensive line, which was thought to be the biggest concern entering the season, turned in a reasonably clean performance against Charlotte. QB Taulia Tagovailoa remains one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion although he tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions last week. I'm willing to give the Terps a mulligan given it was easy to overlook a Charlotte squad they routed last season. Virginia is 0-2 and essentially in a rebuilding year. The Cavaliers did predictably play with a lot of juice last Saturday at home against a sneaky-good James Madison squad. QB Anthony Colandrea wasn't even in the conversation for the starting job earlier in the Spring/Summer but he has taken over the reins. I just wonder whether he's long for the job, undersized and playing behind a leaky offensive line with few offensive weapons around him (he was sacked four times and also threw an interception against JMU). There was a stretch where Virginia scored three touchdowns in six minutes from the second to third quarter on Saturday but it only reached the end zone one more time from there and was completely stymied when the game was hanging in the balance on three fourth quarter drives. Now the Cavaliers take a step up in class against Maryland. I'm simply not convinced Virginia has the personnel in place to hang with the Terps for four quarters. I'm confident we'll see the Terps defense in particular feast on Friday night. Take Maryland (8*). |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA UNDER 45.5 | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair at the Alomodome on Friday. It's not often that both teams have a vested interest in eating clock and effectively shortening proceedings but I believe that will be the case here. For Army, it will be looking for revenge after a whild 41-38 loss against the Roadrunners in West Point last year. The Black Knights know the straightest path to victory in this game is by churning out long, clock-consuming drives that serve to keep the dangerous UTSA offense off the field. While they're certainly capable of doing that, they're up against a fierce Roadrunners defense that returns plenty of talent and experience and already appears to be in midseason form. I'm anticipating a rather conservative gameplan from Army in the role of considerable road underdog here. On the flip side, UTSA is hoping to have the services of do-it-all QB Frank Harris after he suffered a toe injury in last week's win over rival Texas State. Even if Harris can start this game, it's uncertain whether he'll be at 100% or how the injury will effect his performance. It does seem that something hasn't been quite right with Harris through the first two games this season and compounding matters is the fact that the Roadrunners offensive line has been struggling in pass protection. UTSA has the type of offense that can hold onto the football for long stretches with an effective ground game led by RB Kevorian Barnes. Note, however, that the big plays haven't necessarily been there so far this season. Last week against Texas State, UTSA's longest run was a 23-yard scamper from Barnes while its longest pass completion went for 30 yards - its only completion over 30 yards in the contest. Army does boast a capable defense that is built to prevent big plays thanks to a terrific second level with particular strength in the secondary. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a wild, high-scoring shootout but I expect nothing of the sort in this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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09-14-23 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The projected shootout between these two teams last September ultimately fizzled as the Eagles built a big lead early and took the air out of the football in a scoreless second half. I do expect this rematch to be more competitive than that 24-7 beatdown in favor of Philadelphia. With the exception of WR Justin Jefferson and perhaps RB Alexander Mattison, the Vikings offense stunk in Sunday's stunning defeat at the hands of the Bucs. The good news here is that the Eagles lost LB Nakobe Dean to an injury on Sunday, further depleting an already downgraded defense following a number of offseason departures. I do think this is a game where Jefferson can go off while TE T.J. Hockenson is also in a blow-up spot. I like the revenge angle here for the Vikes, not only following last year's ugly showing in Philly but also off Sunday's embarrassing loss. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a ho-hum 25-point effort in New England last Sunday, scoring just a single offensive touchdown in the game. There's plenty for the Eagles offense to clean up here and I'm confident they will. In stark contrast to the Pats, who played it very safe on the defensive side of the football, the Vikes figure to continue to play aggressively on defense, trying to make up for a leaky back-end by putting heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That worked alright against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs pop-gun offense. I'm not convinced it will work at all against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. This is a particularly strong bounce-back spot for Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert as Minnesota is likely to funnel its defense toward the dynamic WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Take the over (8*). |
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09-14-23 | Navy +15 v. Memphis | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Navy plus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Navy got off to an ugly start to the campaign in Week 0 as it was predictably routed by Notre Dame in Dublin. The Midshipmen got an early season bye after that and rebounded with a clean 24-0 victory over FCS squad Wagner last week. Here, they'll be bent on revenge after dropping blowout decisions against Memphis in each of the last two seasons. I believe Navy is better positioned to keep this matchup competitive even if its chances of staging the outright upset are slim. The Midshipmen have a bit of a different approach under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut. Gone are the days of this being strictly a triple-option attack. Even in last week's rout of Wagner, the Middies threw the football 18 times, and found moderate success doing so. QB Tai Lavatai is the right guy in place to run the offense. There's a good mix of talent and experience at the other skill positions as well. If there's a weakness on the Memphis defense it's in the middle and that's an area where I believe Navy can take advantage with a rather unpredictable offensive gameplan on Thursday. Back to Memphis in a moment but it's worth noting the Navy defense found its footing last Saturday after getting smashed in the mouth against Notre Dame. This is a better defense than most are probably going to give it credit for, solid from the secondary in with enough reliable pieces in place to limit the Tigers aerial attack and put pressure on QB Seth Henigan. Guys like Jacob Busic and Mbiti Williams are anything but household names but they're capable of wreaking havoc in this particular matchup. Memphis' offense has ripped through a pair of outmatched opponents to open the season. I do think there are still growing pains ahead for this offense with question marks on the offensive line and an unproven receiving corps. The experience of Henigan and the tremendous running back depth can help make up for that but I feel this one is more about the Tigers trying to effectively shorten this game and get to 3-0 unscathed. I also think the relatively low posted total speaks volumes here. Last year Memphis closed as a 4.5-point favorite against Navy and won in a walk by 24 points. Keep in mind, the Midshipmen turned the football over three times in that game and completed only 3-of-11 passes. I'm confident Navy can close the gap in this rematch, noting that Memphis is a long-term 10-24 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory, outscoring opponents by just 2.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Navy is a long-term 69-30 ATS as a road underdog, outscored by 7.1 points on average along the way. Take Navy (10*). |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Jets are hoping the addition of Aaron Rodgers can spark their offense in this particular matchup, noting that they've been held to 20 points or less in all eight matchups between these two teams going back to the start of the 2019 season. While Rodgers is undoubtedly an upgrade over the rag-tag bunch New York relied upon at quarterback last season, I'm not convinced we're going to see the Jets offense set the world on fire right out of the gate. Buffalo struggled to defend the pass at times last season, ultimately giving up some boxscore-stuffing performances from a number of opposing wide receivers. I'm not sure the Jets actually upgraded their receiving corps all that much by adding the likes of Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb. Elijah Moore (now with the Browns) and Corey Davis (retired) were useful for New York at the position last season. Note that the Bills secondary will start the season intact - the first time we can say that since 2021 with Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer all suffering various injuries over the last couple of years. Add in the Bills vaunted pass rush and it's a tough opening week draw for Rodgers and co. The Bills offense has a tendency to grab headlines but this is also a difficult Week 1 matchup for that unit. New York's defense used a run-funnel style to limit Bills QB Josh Allen's production ceiling in last year's two matchups and the result was Buffalo scoring just 20 and 17 points in splitting those two games. The Bills did little to upgrade their offense in the offseason. They did use first round draft capital to select TE Dalton Kincaid but it's likely going to take some time for him to acclimate himself in the offense based on what we saw in the preseason. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last 'over' result. That came in a contest where the Bills exploded for 45 points against a much different Jets defense in 2021. The instalment of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed at cornerback last year turned out to be a home run and now New York enters this season supremely confident on that side of the football. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and New York at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Giants had one of the lowest offensive ceilings of any team in the NFL last year. They didn't score more than 24 points in a game until January (New Year's Day against Indianapolis) before topping that number again in an upset win over Minnesota in the Wild Card Round. The offense doesn't get worse by adding rookie WR Jalin Hyatt and TE Darren Waller but this is an undeniably tough Week 1 matchup against a tremendous Cowboys defense that may have gotten even better with the acquisition of CB Stephon Gilmore. With that in mind, I anticipate a conservative offensive gameplan from New York here and it does have the pieces in place to play a field position, clock control type of game. Expect a heavy dose of RB Saquon Barkley both running and catching the football. Meanwhile, Darren Waller figures to be an ideal safety valve for QB Daniel Jones who is more than capable of extending plays with his mobility. I simply question how many drives the G-Men can end with 7's on the board rather than 3's. The Cowboys bring a familiar offense to the table personnel-wise but did move on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. I don't necessarily see that as a negative but I do think we'll see Dallas play a more methodical style with Mike McCarthy calling the plays. While the Cowboys have the receivers to expose a rather green Giants secondary, I'm not sure how much time Dak Prescott will have to operate behind an enigmatic Cowboys offensive line that once again starts the season with a couple of guys banged up in Tyler and Tyron Smith. Similar to the Giants offense, the running back could end up being the focal point for the Cowboys offense whether on the ground or through the air with Tony Pollard on Sunday. It's all music to the ears of 'under' bettors with plenty of clock-churning drives likely. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Bettors certainly seem high on the Broncos as they look to turn the page following a dreadful 2022 campaign. Nathaniel Hackett took the fall and now it's Sean Payton's turn to try his hand at turning around Denver's fortunes. While the Broncos can't be much worse than they were a year ago, I don't see this as the Week 1 slam dunk that most do. This will be a revenge game of sorts for Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo after his 49ers dropped an ugly 11-10 decision in a Sunday night game here in Denver early last season. I'm actually higher on Jimmy G. than some as he gets a fresh start following an up and down career with the Niners. The Raiders certainly aren't without weapons on offense with RB Josh Jacobs back in the fold and WR Davante Adams getting up there in age but still able to ball with the best of them. I think Las Vegas has sneaky-good depth at the wide receiver position with Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers in the mix as well. While the Broncos have a few studs on defense, they also have some weaknesses and not a great deal of depth. It's a similar story for the Raiders defense. They upgraded their pass rush by drafting Tyree Wilson in the first round to pair with the electric Maxx Crosby. Their secondary is vulnerable but can Broncos QB Russell Wilson take advantage? Injuries throughout training camp and the preseason mean Wilson won't have his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. While Sean Payton can scheme with the best of them and would certainly appear to have a considerable edge against Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, I believe the Broncos are simply laying too many points in this Week 1 divisional matchup. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's matchup between these two AFC South rivals in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium produced a whopping 61 total points and that was with noodle-armed veteran QB Matt Ryan running the offense for Indianapolis. The Colts were without RB Jonathan Taylor on that day and will be again here. Of course, Ryan is no longer under center for Indy - now it's up to rookie Anthony Richardson. His upside is enormous but there will be growing pains. While this is by no means an ideal Week 1 matchup, I do think Richardson can make enough happen to keep the Colts more competitive than most think. While a clock-control offensive gameplan might make sense for Indy, that will be tough to employ if (and more likely when) they fall behind by a considerable margin. Ryan threw the football 58 times in that aformentioned matchup here last year. Richardson won't approach that pass attempt total here but I still expect him to be forced to throw plenty (which could also potentially lead to turnovers and short fields for the Jaguars offense). Jacksonville is loaded offensively as QB Trevor Lawrence settles in for his third NFL season and second under the guidance of head coach Doug Pederson. The attack only gets stronger with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley and rookie RB Tank Bigsby. After lighting up the Colts defense in last year's two matchups there's reason to believe Lawrence can and will go off again here, keeping in mind the Colts defense arguably got worse in the offseason, certainly at the back-end. I do question, however, whether the Jags even know how to 'take the air out of the football' so to speak. While Jacksonville is understandably a popular road favorite this week, I would hesitate to lay points until it shows me it can manhandle an opponent the caliber of the Colts as it should. Expect Indy to do just enough to keep this one competitive and ultimately help the total along. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-23 | Auburn -6 v. California | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams exploded offensively in blowout victories last Saturday. I believe Auburn is better positioned to keep it rolling this week, however. The Tigers rested a number of players in their opener against UMass (some were nursing minor injuries). While they did allow the Minutemen to move the football a little easier than you would have expected at times, they ultimately stiffened up when it mattered and went a stretch from seven minutes remaining in the first quarter until just over six minutes into the fourth quarter without allowing a single score. Auburn is loaded in the secondary where it boasts NFL-caliber talent led by Nehemiah Pritchett, who sat out last week's game but should return here. Offensively, the Tigers ran wild and ripped off a ton of big plays. That's not to say there's not room for improvement, however, as the quarterback duo of Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford completed just 12-of-23 passes. I expect a much sharper performance as the offense works out the kinks under offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery. Cal managed only two sacks against North Texas last week and will be up against an Auburn offensive line that has a number of new parts via the transfer portal but quickly came together, turning in a clean performance against UMass. The Bears defense is led by one of the better linebackers in the country in Jackson Sirmon but I suspect he'll be doing a lot of chasing on Saturday. Cal hopes to have dual-threat QB Sam Jackson (he transferred in from TCU) after he was forced to leave last week's game due to injury. While Ben Finley performed admirably in relief, there's no question this new-look offense is built around Jackson's mobility. RB Jaydn Ott turned in a monster performance against North Texas but it remains to be seen whether he can follow it up with a similar performance here. He had a couple of breakout games last year but didn't show a great deal of consistency. What he has been doing is giving Auburn bulletin board material in media availability this week; "It would be very encouraging when we do get this win. but I feel like our focus is going to be not letting it get to our head and getting too big-headed after we do get the dub." I believe Auburn is a Top-25 team and will boost its resume on Saturday night in Berkeley. Take Auburn (8*). |
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09-09-23 | Charlotte v. Maryland -24 | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Maryland certainly did itself a favor with its early season schedule this year, opening with three straight home games against Towson, Charlotte and Virginia. It already checked the first box with a 38-6 rout of Towson last week and I'm anticipating a similar result as it hosts Charlotte on Saturday. The Terrapins offense did have some question marks entering the campaign, namely on the offensive line and at wide receiver where it lost some key pieces to the NFL. With that said, it got off to a tremendous start thanks to a terrific performance from underrated QB Taulia Tagovailoa last week and I'm confident we'll see it show continued progression against a Charlotte defense that was absolutely awful last year and didn't do a whole lot to improve things heading into this season. The 49ers weren't really tested in their opener against South Carolina State. Note that they didn't reach the end zone until over five minutes into the second quarter and then went a stretch from four minutes remaining in the second quarter until over midway through the fourth quarter without scoring a touchdown. They'll look to effectively shorten this game with their ground attack and the new clock rules may help them in that regard. With that said, I don't think they can keep this one competitive without QB Jalon Jones being asked to do a whole lot more than he was last week. That likely only gets them into trouble against a Maryland defense that is loaded with potential breakout stars and picked up a game-changer in CB Ja'Quan Sheppard from Cincinnati. Take Maryland (8*). |
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09-09-23 | Marshall -3 v. East Carolina | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Marshall minus the points over East Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. These two teams experienced different results from a pointspread perspective last week with Marshall barely eking out a 21-17 win over FCS squad Albany, at home no less, while East Carolina stayed inside the number in a 30-3 loss to Michigan at the Big House. It certainly took longer than expected to get going, but the Thundering Herd eventually scored a touchdown just over midway through the third quarter in last week's eventual narrow victory. It wasn't all doom-and-gloom though as Marshall ended up scoring three touchdowns over a 10-minute stretch in that contest. QB Cam Fancher looked pretty good to me, completing 28-of-35 passes for 268 yards while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. It was a tremendous comeback game for RB Rasheen Ali as he ran for 137 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. I expect that to be a sign of things to come for this Thundering Herd offense. This is a mouth-watering matchup for Marshall offensively as it catches East Carolina with a relatively inexperienced defense early in the season, before it is able to really mesh. While the Pirates did hold Michigan to 'only' 30 points in last week's loss, that was really a product of the Wolverines taking their foot off the gas after jumping ahead with three touchdowns over a 16-minute stretch in the first half. Michigan put up all 30 of its points in the game's first 36 minutes before calling off the dogs. On the flip side, the East Carolina offense is going to be a work-in-progress as it figures out life after long-time starting QB Holton Ahlers. The Pirates didn't manage a single score against the Wolverines until a field goal with five seconds remaining in the contest. Neither QB they used was able to take hold of the job. I also see it as a negative that QB Mason Garcia led the team in rushing with just 36 yards. Yes, this will be a far less challenging defensive opponent in Marshall but I'm not convinced we'll see the Pirates offense explode. Note that Marshall didn't allow a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter and no score of any kind in the game's final 18 minutes plus against Albany, which possesses a good offense by FCS standards based on early returns this year. The Thundering Herd lost a lot of talent from last year's elite defense but there are just enough key pieces back in place at all three levels, particularly in the secondary, to come together in short order. Take Marshall (10*). |
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09-09-23 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 36.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While it's certainly not Army-Navy, we have seen a trend of low-scoring contests emerge in this rivalry series between Iowa and Iowa State. The 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings going back to 2018 with only one of those contests topping 35 total points. Last year, Iowa State pulled out a 10-7 victory in enemy territory and the road team has now won eight of the last 10 matchups. I expect a similarly low-scoring contest this year with both offenses in a state of transition early in the campaign. Iowa got the Cade McNamara era off to a red hot start last week, scoring two touchdowns in the game's first eight minutes against Utah State. From there, the Hawkeyes didn't reach the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. On the flip side, the Iowa defense was a rock as usual, holding Utah State out of the end zone until the game was all but decided (ahead 24-7 at the time) in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With QB Hunter Dekkers sidelined due to a gambling probe, it's up to the duo of J.J. Kohl and Rocco Becht to lead teh Cyclones offense. Last week against FCS opponent Northern Iowa it was Becht who got the start and led the team to a 30-point outburst. Led the team might be a bit of a stretch. Iowa State got the ball rolling with a pick-six less than two minutes into the contest and the offense went on to put together three touchdown drives, as it should against an FCS foe. Iowa State is hoping that Jayden Higgins can take over from Xavier Hutchinson as WR1 but he had just one catch for 15 yards against the Panthers. Lost in the 30-point performance was the fact that the Iowa State was terrific, holding UNI out of the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Cyclones essentially gave up just one big play in the entire game, that coming on a 36-yard pass completion on that lone Panthers touchdown drive. They racked up five sacks and two interceptions in the victory. Take the under (8*). |
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09-08-23 | Illinois v. Kansas -3 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 79 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter this Week 2 showdown sporting 1-0 records with Illinois pulling out a last second 30-28 win over Toledo and Kansas crushing Missouri State 48-17. We've seen this line shift slightly toward Illinois in the early part of the week. I can't help but think bettors are a little too high on Bret Bielema's Illini right now and probably not quite high enough on the Jayhawks. There is uncertainty around Kansas' quarterback situation. Jason Bean started last week's game but there's a chance Jalon Daniels will get the start on Friday. It's a nice situation to be in having two quarterbacks comfortable and capable of running the offense as intended. Speaking of that offense, the Jayhawks are loaded with talent and experience at all of the skill positions. I don't believe Kansas' receiving corps or backfield get nearly the attention they deserve - it's not all about the quarterbacks. While it was 'only' against an FCS opponent in Missouri State, there was a stretch where the Jayhawks scored three touchdowns in a six-minute span last Saturday. It took a little while for the offense to get rolling but once it did, it looked unstoppable - just as it did much of last season. Defense is where there remain question marks but I believe Kansas has just enough standout players at all three levels to find success and ultimately take a step forward this season. This is a manageable Week 2 matchup against an Illinois offense that has a number of big shoes to fill, even if the cupboard is far from empty. Illini QB Luke Altmyer showed what he's capable of in last week's come-from-behind win over Toledo, moving the chains with both his arm and his legs. I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as that of Bean or Daniels for the Jayhawks, however. Of course, Altmyer likely won't be asked to do too much as we all know Bret Bielema-coached teams are run-first. That's an area where Kansas' defense really struggled last year but again, I do think it can take a leap forward this season with the transfer portal helping out, not to mention a number of key contributors gaining a year of experience. The Kansas defense gets stronger at the back-end, notably loaded in the secondary and that's an area of the field where I expect Illinois to run into some trouble, when it tries to stretch the defense. Corners Cobee Bryant and Kwinton Lassiter each picked off a pass in last week's victory. As much as the Illini would like to avoid a track meet, I do think they're going to be forced to play an uncomfortable game of 'catch-up' on Friday night, something they're simply not built for. Take Kansas (8*). |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. UPDATE: Since the time of posting Chiefs TE Travis Kelce suffered a hyper-extended knee at practice and is questionable to play on Thursday. I’ll stay on the same play as his absence should lead to an even more competitive affair with Detroit perhaps playing even more aggressively rather than a game of ‘keep-away’. The total will undoubtedly drop should Kelce be officially ruled out. While there isn't going to be a bargain to be had with this Opening Night total, I do feel the Lions and Chiefs are well-positioned to blast 'over' the lofty number. Give Andy Reid a couple of months to prepare for a Week 1 opponent and he's going to come up with an ultra-efficient gameplan. It's no fluke that Kansas City has put up just shy of 38 points per game in Week 1 over the last five seasons. It should be able to approach that number again here as it draws a mouth-watering matchup against a Lions defense that did little to improve in the offseason following an up-and-down 2022 campaign. You may recall Detroit opened last season with a 38-35 loss to the Eagles. It draws a similarly difficult season-opener here with the Chiefs returning virtually all of the key parts to its offense with a number of young players poised for breakouts, particularly at the wide receiver position. While not loaded with household names, the Chiefs receiving corps is among the deepest and well-balanced in the league. And that's without even getting in to the reliable presence of Travis Kelce - the ageless wonder at tight end. Detroit is no slouch offensively either. The Lions took a big step forward last season, producing just shy of 27 points per game. Don't sleep on offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's ability to match wits with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo here. Detroit has even more upside this season after using first round draft capital on RB Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions will undoubtedly need to get creative on offense in order to keep pace on Thursday, I don't think there's any reason for them to be intimidated against a Chiefs defense that didn't hold up particularly well against the pass last year and faces the un-admirable challenge of breaking through against a terrific Lions offensive line. To make matters worse for the Kansas City defense, DT Chris Jones is questionable to play on Thursday due to his contract holdout. We'll bank on him playing but should he sit out, the Lions offense is deserving of an upgrade. Take the over (8*). |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Clemson at 8 pm et on Monday. There's a lot of hype around Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers entering the 2023 campaign - of course, what else is new. After a brief lull (by Clemson standards anyway) they're expected back in the National Title picture led by a loaded defense that has NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. I will say that a number of the players they're counting on to lead that defense will need to make a leap forward after perhaps not quite living up to potential thus far. The same goes for the offense. Duke will field arguably its best team in years - on both sides of the football. There's returning talent and experience everywhere and I believe the potential is there for the Blue Devils to build off of last year's strong finish that included a rout of UCF in the Military Bowl. Most are high on Duke QB Riley Leonard and while he's coming off a big 2022 campaign that saw him lead the Blue Devils in passing and rushing, I think there's still a lot of room for him to grow, especially as a passer, in 2023. The common line of thinking here is that Duke simply doesn't have the same level of talent across the board to match up with Clemson and that Dabo Swinney will coach circles around Mike Elko. The Tigers have certainly owned this series, taking five straight meetings going all the way back to 2005, outscoring the Blue Devils by 24 points or more in all five of those contests. It's been five years since their last matchup though and I'm confident Duke has narrowed the gap considerably. Take Duke (10*). |