Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this one sets up for a disappointing Western Michigan squad as it looks to bounce back from a tough home loss against Central Michigan and earn Bowl eligibility in the process. While the season hasn't gone quite as planned for the Broncos, there's no reason to hang their heads here. They quite simply ran into arguably the MAC's best player in Khalil Pimpleton last week as he went off and single-handedly took over the game, scoring three touchdowns including two on punt returns after the Broncos had built an early 14-0 lead. Here, Western Michigan is in a perfect bounce-back spot against a hapless Akron squad that it handled by a 58-13 score, on the road no less, last season. The Zips are coming off a hard-fought six point home loss against Ball State last week. They turned in a near-perfect offensive performance, by their standards anyway, but still couldn't get it done. Keep in mind, they entered the fourth quarter down by 18 points in that contest and it certainly seemed like Ball State got complacent. I don't expect the Broncos to fall into the same trap here as they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on both side of the football and should have little difficulty doing just that. This is a Western Michigan team that is only a couple of games removed from a 64-31 rout of Kent State. It also went on the road and won at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Akron, meanwhile, has a lopsided 21-point loss to an awful Temple team on its resume this season and has given up a whopping 110 points in its last three games despite facing limited offenses in Miami-Ohio, Buffalo and Ball State. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NFL First Half Total of the Week. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We've taken advantage of some lofty first half totals on a number of occasions on Monday Night Football this season, including last week as we cashed the 'under' in the first half of the Giants-Chiefs matchup. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I see this as a fine spot for both offenses to get off to strong starts at Heinz Field. Chicago showed some signs of life offensively against San Francisco last week - even if it was in a losing effort. QB Justin Fields looked as comfortable throwing the football as he has all season. On Chicago's first drive of the game Fields was 4-for-4 for 46 yards passing - a drive that ultimately ended with a made field goal. In fact, all three of Chicago's first half drives resulted in points on the board - 13 in all. Pittsburgh's pass rush offers a difficult challenge for Fields and he'll undoubtedly take some sacks and hits but I do think his mobility helps and the Bears receivers should have an advantage against a Steelers secondary that has struggled against the pass. Also note that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 4.2 yards per rush, opening things up for underrated Bears rookie RB Khalil Herbert. Steelers dinosaur QB Ben Roethlisberger catches a break here as Khalil Mack remains sidelined for the Bears, taking away their best pass-rushing piece. They're also likely to be without another one of their top defenders in S Eddie Jackson. The Bears defense hasn't been stout against the run at the best of times and Steelers rookie RB Najee Harris is evolving into a bigger factor each week. He should go off in this matchup. Like the Steelers, the Bears secondary has generally been soft against opposing wide receivers. My concern with playing the full game 'over' in this one is the potential game script should the Steelers hold a lead in the second half. There's a good chance they elect to salt the game away with their ground attack in that scenario. In general, I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Chicago coaching staff drawing up the right plays in high-pressure situations late. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles have faced a pretty brutal schedule this season when you really look at it. Here, they'll be playing their first home game since back on October 14th. They've yet to enjoy consecutive home games this season and won't until December. Now they welcome a Chargers squad that has faced quite the opposite type of schedule - this will be only their second time traveling in the last five weeks and only their second game in the last three weeks thanks to a bye two weeks ago. It's obviously a big game for both teams but the Chargers reek a little more of desperation after suffering consecutive losses. I like their chances of bouncing back here. QB Justin Herbert has been struggling but now faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the last three teams it has faced to complete 90-of-110 passes for 791 yards. We actually won with Philadelphia last week but that was against the hapless Lions. I'm still not high on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, other than as a fantasy standout. While the Chargers have certainly been awful against the run this season I actually think they can step up in that regard here, especially with the Eagles backfield muddy in the absence of Miles Sanders. Note that the Chargers are 30-16 ATS the last 46 times they've come off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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11-07-21 | Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think a lot of bettors are quick to dismiss the Broncos offense and skeptical of their ability to contribute enough points to help this one 'over' the lofty total. I have no such concerns. Denver will head into this game inside the friendly confines of Jerry World knowing that it will need to put up plenty of points to potentially keep pace with the high-octane Cowboys, especially with QB Dak Prescott likely to be back on the field. With WR Jerry Jeudy back in the mix, the Broncos do have some weapons to work with on offense and while the Cowboys secondary boasts plenty of flash and ball-hawking ability, it has also given up plenty of yardage (and points). I don't think we'll see the Broncos bang their heads against the wall all afternoon trying to run the football. Instead look for QB Teddy Bridgewater to take some shots downfield and potentially find some success against a beatable Cowboys pass defense. Meanwhile, the Dallas offense should feast against a severely depleted Broncos defense that was already without Bradley Chubb but now loses defensive anchor Von Miller (traded to the Rams) and key pass defender Bryce Callahan (knee injury). Trying to defend the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb is going to be an absolute nightmare for the Broncos defense here and that's before we even mention Dallas' incredible ground attack that ranks among the best in the league. With a cluster of injuries in their linebacking corps, there's little reason to have confidence in the Broncos run defense against the two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard on Sunday. Take the over (9*). |
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11-07-21 | Raiders -3 v. Giants | 16-23 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the evolution of the Raiders this season, even under a seemingly constant swirl of distractions. Here, off their bye week, I think we see Las Vegas come out and smash a Giants squad playing on a short week following Monday's near-miss in Kansas City. Give the Giants credit for going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs on the road on Monday. However, they come out of that game perhaps even more injury-depleted than they went in and now have to limp home to face a Raiders squad that is rested and ready off its bye week. Las Vegas has actually taken flight offensively since ridding itself of head coach Jon Gruden. QB Derek Carr looks extremely comfortable running Greg Olson's offense and now has another week of practice under his belt following the bye. I expect to see even more wrinkles in the Raiders offense here and I'm not convinced the Giants middling defense will have any answers. Missing a number of key cogs, the G-Men have struggled to defend the pass and the run. They're allowing a whopping 4.5 yards per rush and just shy of 150 rush yards per game this season. That should serve to open things up for the Raiders emerging play-action-based offense here. I'm higher on Giants QB Daniel Jones than some but New York is quite simply running out of bodies at the wide receiver position and RB Saquon Barkley is still likely a couple of weeks away from returning to the field. The Raiders offense thrived in a 31-28 last minute win over the Jets here at MetLife Stadium last season. Look for them to come up big in the Big Apple again, albeit against a different opponent this time around. Take Las Vegas (9*). |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Ravens most recent game two weeks ago at home against the Bengals. That turned out to be a 'rocking chair' variety winner as the Bengals exploded on an overrated Ravens defense. Here, I look for the Ravens offense to bounce back in a big way as they come off their bye week and face an undermanned Vikings defense that is without Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson among others. While I'm not sure the majority of casual bettors have taken notice, the Ravens offense is no longer the run-first unit we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. With no true bell-cow in the backfield, they've began to shift to a more pass-friendly offense and that should continue to pay dividends for 'over' backers moving forward. This is a favorable spot for Ravens WR Hollywood Brown to go off. Mark Andrews has been the focal point of the Baltimore passing game recently but he's at risk of getting locked up by the Vikes solid linebacking corps in this one. Look for the Ravens receiving corps to shine here. On the flip side, the Vikes offense didn't look good against the Cowboys last Sunday night. Perhaps Minnesota got caught looking past a Dak-less Cowboys squad. I simply chalk it up to inconsistency, something we've come to expect from Vikes QB Kirk Cousins. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot for Cousins and the loaded Minnesota offense. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should feast against a Ravens defense that has given up the fourth-most pass completions of 20 yards or more this season. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot as well as the Ravens defensive front has been repeatedly shredded this season, giving up nine touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Florida is coming off a lower-scoring result than expected against East Carolina in a primetime weeknight game last week. In fact, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 'under' results. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair here, however, as they return home to host a rolling Houston squad on Saturday night. First, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with South Florida coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last 2+ seasons with that situation resulting in an average total of 72.0 points. Also note that the last seven times USF has come off an ATS loss it has seen its next contest average a whopping 67.0 points. If the Bulls are going to keep this game even remotely competitive, they're going to need to step up their game offensively. The good news is they are expected to have dual-threat QB Timothy McClain back on the field. Houston has padded its defensive stats against the likes of Rice and FCS squad Grambling. There was also a weeknight affair that completely got away from Tulsa, which has been highly-inconsistent offensively. Here, I think we see the Cougars once again go off offensively, having scored 44, 45 and 40 points in their three previous road games this season. FCS squad Florida A&M and Temple (one of the worst FBS teams in the country in my opinion) are the only two opponents that USF has held to under 29 points this season. Note that Houston has scored at least 56 points in each of the last two meetings in this series. The last two matchups have totaled at least 77 points. This total is too low with last week's poor showing from the Bulls in front of a national audience factoring heavily into the number. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Tulane v. Central Florida -12.5 | 10-14 | Loss | -113 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulane at 4 pm et on Saturday. Tulane got up for last Saturday's nationally-televised home game against then second-ranked Cincinnati, giving the Bearcats all they could handle in an eventual 31-12 loss. Now things get tougher as the reeling Green Wave, having not won a game since Week 2 against FCS squad Morgan State, hit the road to face a surging Central Florida team. The Golden Knights had their doors blown off by aforementioned Cincinnati on the road back on October 16th. Since then, they've bounced back with blowout wins of their own over Memphis and Temple, outscoring those two opponents by a combined 73-14 margin. I like them to keep rolling here as they look to assure themselves of Bowl eligibility with a win. Lost in the relatively competitive nature of last week's setback against Cincinnati was the fact that Tulane completed only nine passes. The Green Wave have now completed a grand total of 20 passes over their last two games. That's just not going to cut it against a Golden Knights squad that is brimming with confidence right now. Take Central Florida (8*). |
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11-06-21 | North Texas -4.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Southern Miss at 3 pm et on Saturday. Southern Miss has scored fewer than 20 points in all seven games against FBS opposition this season (it defeated Grambling 37-0 in its other game). Needless to say the Golden Eagles are simply playing out the string at this point. Meanwhile, North Texas kept its slim hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive with an 'upset' road win over Rice last week. Now it has an excellent opportunity to build some positive momentum, and earn an ounce of revenge after dropping its last two meetings with Southern Miss. The Mean Green Eagles have faced a brutal schedule this season. After opening with a cupcake matchup against FCS squad Northwestern State they went on to play SMU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Marshall, Liberty and Rice. Yes, there were a couple of soft opponents in that bunch but the majority were tough. Credit UNT for going 5-3 ATS through its first eight games, including a 4-1 ATS mark over its last four contests. I mentioned just how punchless Southern Miss has been offensively this season. North Texas is a different story as it has scored at least 21 points in each of its last four games. The Golden Eagles haven't come particularly close to even sniffing out an ATS cover since losing by 12 points (in a game they scored only nine points) as an 11-point underdog against Troy back on September 18th. Take North Texas (10*). |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday. Texas State found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time last week as it was blown out 45-0 on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette. Here, the Bobcats have a prime opportunity to 'get right' at home against a Louisiana-Monroe squad that is 'punching above its weight class' at 4-4 on the season. The Warhawks have stunningly won a pair of games outright as 20+ point underdogs this season. I think the bloom is off the rose now, however, following last week's 31-point drubbing at the hands of Appalachian State. Now they have to stay on the road for a second straight week to face a Texas State squad that believe it or not still has an outside shot at reaching Bowl eligibility (if it wins out). Of course, winning out is highly-unlikely with a date at Coastal Carolina still on the schedule. That's in a couple of weeks though. Here, I look for the Bobcats to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks after stepping up in class and dropping back-to-back double-digit losses against Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Keep in mind, Texas State has taken Baylor down to the wire while also defeating South Alabama here at home this season. Prior to their last two games, the Bobcats had scored 20+ points in each of their last six games. They've at least played with a little more consistency than Louisiana-Monroe, which has been on a wild, roller-coaster ride all season. Note that Texas State took last year's meeting between these two teams by 21 points, on the road no less. They say revenge is a dish best served at home. I don't see the Warhawks getting that revenge in hostile territory on Saturday. Take Texas State (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -8 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. This line has moved considerably over the course of the week, leaving Ole Miss in playable range as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Give Liberty credit. It has played the schedule in front of it and has done it well, winning seven of nine games to date. But let's also keep things in perspective. The Flames seven wins this season include victories against FCS squad Campbell and three of the weakest teams in FBS in Old Dominion, Louisiana-Monroe and UMass, with two of those contests coming at home. Ole Miss, meanwhile, opened the season with a tough non-conference matchup against Louisville (it won 43-24) and after a couple of non-conference cupcakes, the Rebels have faced a brutal SEC schedule that included games against Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. It enters this game off a tough but not unexpected 31-20 road loss against Auburn last week. To me, this looks like an ideal 'get right' spot for Ole Miss before it gets back to the SEC gauntlet with a home date with Texas A&M next week. The fact that the Flames are a seven-win team and scored a whopping 62 points in last week's victory should help keep the Rebels focus where it needs to be this week and I expect them to win this one going away. Take Ole Miss (9*). |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the the 'over' between Virginia Tech and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been involved in some low-scoring games recently, I believe the betting markets have over-adjusted when it comes to this total. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech is just one game removed from a wild game against Syracuse that totaled 77 points. Speaking of Syracuse, Boston College tangled with the Orange last week, losing an ugly 21-6 decision at the Carrier Dome. That extremely low final score was somewhat misleading, however. In that game, Boston College marched down the field to just outside the Orange red zone on its first drive of the game but was stopped on fourth down. The very next drive Syracuse took the ball all the way to the Boston College three-yard line before coughing up a fumble. Two of the next three drives after that would see the Orange drive into BC territory before being stopped on fourth down and then the Eagles stalling at the Syracuse 14-yard line before settling for a field goal. You get the picture. Boston College has actually only had the benefit of playing two home games to date this season. It recorded a thrilling 41-34 overtime win over Missouri in one of them before being held in check by a good N.C. State team in a 33-7 loss in mid-October. Virginia Tech is coming off a game against Georgia Tech that reached 43 total points despite a whopping 83 rush attempts in the game. The Hokies have been alternating high and low-scoring games over the last month. They haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with three in a row and even during that stretch, two of those three games went 'over' the number we're dealing with tonight. You would have to go back four meetings to 2017 to find the last time these two teams played a game that totaled less than 52 points. We've seen closing totals of 57, 56.5 and 61.5 in the last three meetings and the last time the Hokies and Eagles matched up in Chestnut Hill they combined to score 63 points two years ago. Again, while both of these offenses have been prone to scoring droughts, I believe this total has been set too low. With both teams desperate for a victory to keep Bowl hopes alive, I expect them to come out with an attacking mentality on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Colts overtime loss to the Titans on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they stay home to host the upstart Jets on a short week on Thursday night. Mike White-mania has taken hold in New York after the QB led the Jets to a stunning 34-31 win over the Bengals on Sunday. Let's not get too carried away though. The Jets caught the Bengals in an obvious letdown spot off a monster blowout win over the rival Ravens the previous week. Cincinnati's defense might have got caught reading a little too much of their own press leading into that one and certainly appeared to overlook White's ability to move the Jets offense and put points on the board. Don't expect the Colts to fall into the same trap here. Indianapolis has to feel that the AFC South is still up for grabs, especially with the new that Titans RB Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury. With that being said, Frank Reich probably doesn't want his QB Carson Wentz throwing the football 50+ times again like he did on Sunday against the Titans. We saw that the Jets defense can be opportunistic against the Bengals. Credit New York for limiting Cincinnati to just north of 300 total yards in that game. The majority of the Bengals offense in that game came thanks to turnovers from the Jets offense. Knowing that, I'm confident predicting a more conservative gameplan from Robert Saleh's Jets offense here. The Colts come in having scored 30+ points in three straight games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'under' is a long-term winner at 60-40 with the Colts playing at home off a loss, resulting in an average total of just 42.6 points. The 'under' is also 48-30 with the Jets playing on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 37.6 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 66.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last season as Western Michigan prevailed by a 52-44 score. Keep in mind, prior to that you would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time the two teams combined to put up more than 63 points. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair this time around as both teams enter this pivotal MAC showdown sporting identical 2-2 conference records. Western Michigan is known for its offense and while it is capable of putting up points in bunches, it has also been prone to scoring lapses this season, as noted by the fact that it has been held to 24 points or less in four of its last five games. The lone explosion over that stretch came in a 64-31 rout of a Kent State squad that doesn't play a lick of defense and operates at a break-neck pace on offense. I'm higher on the Western Michigan defense than some. This is a talented and experienced group that went into the Big House in Ann Arbor and didn't allow a touchdown against Michigan until nearly six minutes into the second quarter way back in Week 1. The Wolverines ultimately did get rolling in that game but it was evident that the Broncos weren't going to be pushovers defensively. Led by DL Ali Fayad, the Broncos defense should be able to pose plenty of problems for a less-than-stellar Central Michigan offensive line in this one. The Chippewas are coming off a 39-38 loss to Northern Illinois last time out. Combine that with their high-scoring loss to the Broncos in last year's meeting and you can understand why they wouldn't necessarily want to get involved in another shootout here. The Chippewas started the season with Washington transfer Jacob Sirmon at quarterback but he's since been replaced by Daniel Richardson. Richardson, while experienced running the offense, hasn't been all that dynamic, completing just over 58% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He has posted an impressive 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio but again, I expect him to be under duress for much of tonight's game. Look for the Chips' to make a concerted effort to churn out long drives in this one and effectively shorten the game. Note that their two previous MAC road games have totaled just 45 and 57 points. Take the under (9*). |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Eastern Michigan enters this game off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results, scoring a whopping 86 points along the way. The Eagles should find the going much tougher on Tuesday, however, as they face one of the MAC's best defensive teams in Toledo. The Rockets have given up more than 26 points in a game only once this season and that came against nationally-ranked Notre Dame, on the road no less, back in Week 2. Offensively, the Rockets aren't the juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing in Toledo. Their overall numbers are skewed by a couple of explosions against FCS squad Norfolk State way back in Week 1 and lowly UMass in the first week of October. The Rockets have completed 20 or more passes only twice this season - they've run the football 30+ times in six of eight games to date. They've also allowed more than 21 pass completions only once, that coming in the aforementioned game against Notre Dame. Last year's matchup between these two teams was high-scoring with Toledo winning by a 45-28 score. Keep in mind, that was a wild contest that included four turnovers by way of fumbles (and an interception as well). Of course we can't account for turnovers creating short fields here, but with a lot on the line between these two MAC squads, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 58.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ball State and Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a big game for Ball State as it looks to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Miami-Ohio and pick up a much-needed fourth victory of the season to keep its hopes of reaching a possible Bowl game alive. While it looks like a layup on paper, I don't expect Akron to simply roll over. The Zips are coming off a 45-10 beatdown at the hands of Buffalo, at home no less, after they had managed to split a two-game road trip, going a perfect 2-0 ATS along the way. While Akron is by no means a defensive stalwart, it's not as if teams have been bombing away against it. The Zips have allowed over 20 pass completions only twice this season. Yes, opponents have generally elected to run the ball down their throats but Ball State isn't an elite rushing team, averaging only 116 rush yards per game on 3.5 yards per rush this season with that number dropping to 3.3 ypr on the road. Of course, the Zips offense has been rather punchless as usual and this doesn't look like an ideal breakout spot against a Ball State squad that has allowed 22, 20, 31 and 24 points against much tougher opposition in conference play. Take the under (9*). |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFL MNF First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an obvious 'get right' spot for the Chiefs against a lowly Giants squad that looks ripe for the picking coming off a 25-3 win over the Panthers last week. Most are expecting the Chiefs offense to lay waste to a depleted Giants defense here but I believe another slow start from Patrick Mahomes and company could be in order. Keep in mind, the Chiefs are averaging only 8.7 points in the first half here at home this season. On the flip side, they're giving up a whopping 20.0 points on average in the first half at home - a number I certainly expect them to improve on against a Giants squad that will simply be looking to hold onto the football and effectively shorten this game given their lack of offensive weaponry due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the G-Men are averaging just shy of 7.0 points in the first half this season, topping out at 10 points through their first seven games. They reached that 10-point mark in the first half twice previously, in Dallas and Washington - more favorable matchups than the one they'll face here in my opinion. While the potential is certainly there for the Chiefs to come out and boatrace the Giants and take care of this first half total all on their own, given their inconsistency on offense I don't see it happening. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 26-4 in the first half over the last 10 seasons when a team comes off an upset road loss by two touchdowns or more in the first half of the season, as is the case with the Chiefs here, resulting in an average total of just 17.8 points. That situation has gone a perfect 13-0 over the last five seasons. Take the first half under (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Entering the season I had the Jaguars and Seahawks pegged as having two of the league's worst defenses. While both teams have trended to the 'under' through the first seven weeks of the season, that's had more to do with the inept nature of their offenses (and an injury to Russell Wilson for Seattle) than anything else. With that being said, I do see this as a potential breakout spot for both offenses. The Jags are coming off their bye week, giving them an extra week to perhaps add a couple of extra wrinkles to an offense that did show some signs of life prior to the bye. They certainly haven't been afraid to sling the ball all over the field, with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence attempting more than 30 passes in five of six games to date. The Seahawks offense has labored with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm but the big play potential is certainly still there with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the field (we saw that as Metcalf had a long touchdown catch on Monday night against New Orleans). Note that when we last saw the Jags they were giving up a whopping 354 passing yards against Tua Tagovailoa and a struggling Miami offense in London. While the Jags have posted a 2-4 o/u record this season, they've actually gone 'over' the number we're dealing with on Sunday in four of six games to date. Off Monday's staggeringly low-scoring game in Seattle, I believe Sunday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Eagles -179 v. Lions | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia moneyline over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think a lot of bettors are jumping on the Lions in this spot as the Eagles look ripe for the picking off consecutive losses and with just two wins to their credit this season. I believe last week was the time to back the Lions, however (I was actually on the Rams in that game), at least from a value perspective. The Lions certainly got up for last week's 'Jared Goff revenge game' against the Rams. They pulled out all the stops (onside kicks, fake punts, etc.) in an effort to stay competitive in that contest. Here, I'm not convinced they'll be so fortunate. The Eagles record leaves a lot to be desired but they've also faced a brutal schedule, at least from my perspective. Their only truly ugly loss given where all of their opponents stand came against the 49ers back in Week 2. While they enter this game off consecutive losses, those two setbacks came against the Bucs and on the road against the upstart Raiders. They actually check in a respectable 2-2 SU on the road this season with their two losses coming in Dallas and Las Vegas. There's talk of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts getting benched at this point but I think he holds onto his starting job for at least one more week given the favorable matchup here. Few teams have been worse against the pass than the Lions this season as they've allowed a league-high 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Note that favorites priced between -160 and -475 on the moneyline have gone 68-12 SU after giving up 25+ points in consecutive games over the last five seasons, as is the case with Philadelphia here. Take Philadelphia moneyline (6*). |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these two teams fizzled as a banged-up Carson Wentz wasn't able to get anything going offensively for the Colts in a 25-16 loss in Tennessee, snapping a three-game 'over' streak in this series. Here, I expect things to go back to 'normal' in this series with a shootout in Indianapolis. The Colts offense is red hot right now and has been for a number of weeks. With that in mind, I expect offensive-minded head coach Frank Reich to orchestrate an aggressive offensive gameplan here, knowing that his team is going to need to put up plenty of points to outlast a surging Titans squad. Tennessee has come to life offensively over the last few weeks, scoring 98 points in three games - all victories. I still have my concerns when it comes to the Titans defense, however. They held the mighty Chiefs to only three points in a very strange game last Sunday but that had more to do with game script than anything else as the Titans got off to a blazing start and never looked back. Neither team has been particularly stout against the run this season with the Titans checking in having allowed north of 100 rush yards in six straight games (despite winning five of those) and the Colts having given up over 100 rushing yards in four straight and six of seven contests this season. Indy won its last two games by double-digit margins yet still gave up well over 300 yards rushing in those two contests. I point that out as both teams boast all-world running backs and it really opens everything up for the two offenses. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Titans have come off three wins in their last four games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 56.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma -19 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Texas Tech has faced a fairly easy schedule in recent weeks, but still only managed to go 2-2 SU since suffering a 70-35 rout at the hands of Texas in the final week of September. Now I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for another blowout loss as they catch Oklahoma in the wrong place the wrong time. The Sooners did win last week, but it wasn't pretty. They only managed to get past Kansas on a late surge, ultimately prevailing by a 35-23 score. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Sooners play at home they rolled up over 500 yards of total offense in a 21-point rout of TCU. I believe they're well-positioned to post another rout here, noting they've put up a whopping 117 points in their last two meetings with Texas Tech. Here, we'll back the Sooners noting that they've gone 29-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over a conference opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 22.4 points. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game between two teams that have largely been disappointments this season. Florida State has at least turned things around lately, reeling off three straight wins while scoring 33, 35 and 59 points. With that in mind, I think Clemson knows it will have to step up its offensive game and come out with an aggressive mindset on Saturday. The Tigers have certainly been bogged down, held to fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games and 21 points or less in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season. This is still a talented team and one that still has plenty to play for, especially when you consider each of its last five games are of the 'winnable' variety. This is an excellent get-right spot for the Clemson offense against what I consider a bad Florida State defense. Note that the Seminoles have allowed 30+ points in four of seven games this season. Two of their other three games came against the likes of FCS squad Jacksonville State and lowly UMass. Here, we'll play the 'over' noting that it has cashed at an impressive 32-9 clip over the last five seasons when set between 42.5 and 49 points with the road team having won two of its last three games ATS but sporting a losing record on the season, as is the case with Florida State. The 'over' has gone a stunning 19-2 in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse than Tulane right now. The wheels have completely come off since the Green Wave opened the season with such promise after taking Oklahoma down to the wire in Norman before dismantling FCS squad Morgan State 69-20. Since then, Tulane has gone 0-5 SU and ATS. We successfully faded the Green Wave last week as they fell by 29 points against SMU. Now they face an even tougher challenge as they host second-ranked Cincinnati on Saturday, and likely do so without starting QB Michael Pratt. Pratt has been one of the only good things Tulane has had going for it as he has at least given the offense a pulse with his dual-threat ability. The Bearcats enter this game off a subpar performance against Navy last week. Of course, facing the Midshipmen is always a unique experience with their triple-option attack. Cincinnati actually did a good job of limiting the Navy offense in that game but got bogged down offensively itself. Here, I expect to see QB Desmond Ridder and his incredible supporting cast go off against a hapless Tulane defense that has been lit up for 4.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yard per pass attempt this season. The fact that Tulane has given up 40 and 55 points over its last two games is telling when you consider the offense turned the football over only twice. It's not as if the Green Wave have been handing the opposition a bunch of extra possessions. Look for the Bearcats to make the most of what they're given on Saturday as they bounce back from just their second ATS loss of the season (the first came as 36.5-point favorites against FCS squad Murray State back in Week 2). Take Cincinnati (9*). |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has now fallen into playable range for us thanks to the Packers missing two of their top offensive weapons in WRs Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. I'm not overly concerned by their absence. The Packers gameplan doesn't really change. They knew they were going to have to play aggressively on offense in this one, knowing that they're unlikely to limit the Cardinals offense (remember, Green Bay is still without two of its best defensive players in CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith). Note that the Packers are coming off four straight 'under' results, which also helps keep this total is a reasonable range. Every once in a while you will see the high-octane Cardinals get involved in a low-scoring affair. It just so happens that we've seen it in two of their last three games. Those games were against San Francisco (with rookie QB Trey Lance starting at the time) and Houston (with struggling rookie Davis Mills at quarterback). Even without Adams, the Packers offense is still more than capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard as last time I checked Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones were still healthy. Thanks to recent blowout wins, the Cardinals haven't had to really keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters. Make no mistake though, their offense is more than capable of marching up and down the field and scoring in bunches in this one. They've put up 30+ points in six of seven games and that's with five of those games resulting in a margin of victory in the double-digits. In what should be a more competitive affair on Thursday, I think the potential is there for a shootout. Take the over (8*). |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
NFL TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Everything seems to be stacked against the Packers in this one with the news coming down that both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are on the Covid-19 list and unlikely to play on Thursday. That adds to an already impressive (not in a good way) list of players slated to miss, including CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith. However, last time I checked, the Packers still had QB Aaron Rodgers and do-it-all RB Aaron Jones. We're talking about a team that has had to deal with Adams absence due to injury before and on those occasions, Rodgers has actually thrived. I really like the setup here with the Packers coming off a less-than-dominant performance against Washington last week (they still won by two touchdowns) and the Cardinals fresh off a complete dismantling of the lowly Texans at home. Here, we find the Packers in a terrific situation that has gone 55-22 ATS over the last 10 seasons in which we fade favorites priced between -3.5 and -10 that outscore the opposition by an average of 10+ points per game and come off a contest in which they allowed 14 points or less. Also note that the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS the last six times they've played at home after outgaining their previous opponent by 100+ total yards over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that situation. They're a miserable 3-16 ATS the last 19 times that situation has come up but with the total yards advantage adjusted to 150. As for the Packers, they're a solid 12-4 ATS the last 16 times they've played with six or less days' rest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina -9.5 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
AAC First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on East Carolina first half minus the points over South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that we're only being asked to lay single-digits with the Pirates in the first half in this key late October home game. East Carolina is coming off a hard-fought overtime loss at Houston last week - its second straight heart-breaking loss after falling by a 20-16 score at UCF in its previous game. Everything is still in front of the Pirates, however, as they certainly have a path to six wins and a potential Bowl game but there's no denying they need the win on Thursday against South Florida to make that happen. We actually won with the Bulls in last Saturday's rout of Temple. It wasn't a clean performance by any means, but USF was the lesser of two evils and managed to walk away with its second victory of the season. Unlike ECU, USF doesn't have much of a shot at going Bowling this season with a difficult schedule still ahead and no margin for error. The problem here is, the Bulls are dealing with a number of injuries and playing on a short week, on the road no less, doesn't help matters. With a defense that has been absolutely gashed both against the run and the pass, I have a hard time envisioning the Bulls offense, which could be led by multi-program disappointment Cade Fortin, struggling to get off on the right foot in this one. Note that the Bulls are a miserable 4-16 ATS as first half underdogs over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.5 points. Worse still, they're 0-6 ATS in the first half when coming off a win over the same stretch, averaging a paltry 2.7 points while being outscored by an average margin of 20.8 points. On the flip side, ECU has outscored the opposition by 13.7 points on average in the first half at home this season. Take ECU first half (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Lions can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. They have an offense that can't play from behind. It's clearly a recipe for disaster as they head across the country to face the Rams on Sunday afternoon. You can throw motivation out the window - we've all heard enough about the Jared Goff-Matt Stafford angle in this one. The simple fact is, the Lions offense is broken - as evidenced by the fact that they've been shut out in the first half in three of their last four games and have managed to score no more than 17 points in any of their last five contests since an anomaly of a performance in the second half against the 49ers way back in Week 1. QB Jared Goff is firmly planted in the hot seat right now and I'm not convinced that head coach Dan Campbell calling him out publicly after last week's game will lead to positive results. In fact, I'm quite certain of the opposite. The Rams 'got right' on a two-game road trip through Seattle and New York and now return home for this absolute smash spot. Los Angeles is well-armed to dismantle a fading Lions defense while the Rams own defense should feast on a Lions offense that has few weapons, some of which are banged-up right now including TE T.J. Hockenson. This is the continuation of a dream three-game stretch for the Rams which began with a 27-point rout of the Giants last week. I'm confident we'll see them roll by 20+ in all three games - a stretch that concludes with a trip to Houston on Halloween. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not buying into the Falcons for a second. Their two wins this season have come on a last-second field goal against the hapless Giants and in London against the lowly Jets. Yes, Miami is at a scheduling disadvantage here after playing in London last Sunday - where it fell to the Jaguars, but the Fins are actually getting healthier in this spot with CB Xavien Howard expected to return. Lost in last week's defeat was the progress made by the Dolphins offense with QB Tua Tagovailoa back at the helm as he threw for 354 yards and as a team Miami turned the football over only once. It wasn't really a bad performance from the Miami defense either as it held the Jags to 84 rush yards and 25-of-41 passing for 312 yards through the air. Take Miami (8*). |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Lamar Jackson has made a habit of laying waste to the Bengals defense and as he checks into this game playing some of the best football of his career, we can anticipate more of the same on Sunday. The question when it comes to the total in this game is whether Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense can be along for the ride and help this one 'over' the very reasonable number. I believe he and they can and will. The Chargers quite simply didn't show up for last week's much-hyped showdown with the Ravens. We won with Baltimore in that game as the Ravens jumped ahead early and salted the game away from there. Here, I believe we'll see the Bengals find a way to stick around in this game, just as they have in virtually every game this season. The Ravens defense hasn't been particularly dominant against the run or the pass - due to injuries or otherwise. Last week's solid boxscore numbers for the defense had everything to do with the Chargers throwing their offensive gameplan out the window after the deficit got out of hand. While this game isn't likely to be a true shootout, it doesn't have to be for us to cash this ticket given the range the total currently sits in. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Ravens have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 53.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-21 | Temple v. South Florida -2 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Florida minus the points over Temple at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with an easy fade of Temple last week in Cincinnati and I won't hesitate to go back to the well at a much more reasonable price as the Owls stay on the road to face South Florida on Saturday. This one has pretty much fallen into our laps with the Bulls falling to under a field goal favorite. There's really nothing curious about the line. Temple is a respectable 3-3 on the season while USF checks in a miserable 1-5. But let's keep things in perspective here. The Owls wins have come against Akron, FCS squad Wagner and Memphis. Yes, the win over Memphis could be considered somewhat impressive but that had everything to do with the Tigers jumping out to a big lead early and thinking they had the win in the bag, without a legitimate defense to back it up. South Florida has faced a brutal schedule, going up against N.C. State, BYU and SMU on the road and Florida, Florida A&M (its lone win) and Tulsa here at home. Credit the Bulls for coming out of their bye week and giving a quality Tulsa squad all it could handle in a one-point loss last week. This is essentially a 'must-win' game for Temple if it wants to keep its Bowl hopes alive and I like that as it's certainly being factored into the line in our favor with the Bulls. South Florida doesn't have the benefit of carrying the same (false) hope but should get up for this winnable game before the schedule gets tougher again down the stretch. Take South Florida (9*). |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Saturday. Texas-San Antonio has earned a national top-25 ranking for the first time in program history but I expect its stay to be short-lived. Wins are never easy to come by for teams that travel to Ruston to face the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech, regardless the state of the program. Here, I question who the Roadrunners have really beat this year? The wins have come against Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, Western Kentucky and Rice. Even the 'name' programs in that bunch are mired in down years. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech checks in 2-4 on the season but as I mentioned, it has been competitive once again here in Ruston, going 2-1 with its lone loss coming by two points on a touchdown with six seconds left in the fourth quarter against still-undefeated and nationally-ranked SMU back on September 18th. The Bulldogs laid an egg on the road against UTEP last week and that's a big reason why we're dealing with such a generous helping of points here. Keep in mind, just two games back, Louisiana Tech went on the road and gave N.C. State all it could handle in a seven-point loss. There's still a clear path for Louisiana Tech to reach a Bowl game this year as I count five winnable games left on its schedule - including this one. Remember, this same matchup produced a narrow 27-26 result in favor of UTSA last year. Expect another tightly-contested affair here. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army UNDER 53 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. The bye week came at the right time for Wake Forest as it was very fortunate to remain undefeated in spite of awful defensive performances against Louisville and Syracuse in consecutive weeks heading in. This is a far stronger defense that it has shown as far as I'm concerned and now it gets a tough, albeit different test against Army's triple-option offense on Saturday. I expect the Demon Deacons defense to rise to the occasion. On the flip side, Army knows it needs to tighten things up after suffering consecutive losses - its first two defeats of the season - against Ball State and Wisconsin. The Black Knights defense certainly wasn't bad in either game - in fact, this is a unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, but it knows it will need to be better against a dynamic Wake Forest offense on Saturday. Having scored 35+ points in each of its first six games this season, Wake Forest is certainly in line for some regression offensively and this would appear to be an ideal spot for that as this has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (9*). |
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10-22-21 | Washington -17.5 v. Arizona | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Arizona at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Arizona has quietly been one of the worst teams in the country this season and I don't envision a sudden turnaround against Washington on Friday night. The Wildcats didn't score a single point in last week's 34-0 drubbing at the hands of a fairly weak Colorado squad. Arizona has yet to win a game this season - in fact, it has yet to break 20 points in a game. QBs Gunner Cruz and Jordan McCloud are sidelined for the remainder of the season leaving the starting job to an ineffective Will Plummer. The only reason the Wildcats defense hasn't posted truly embarrassing numbers is because they haven't faced many explosive offensive opponents. Still, it's notable that they allowed 271 rush yards against San Diego State and a whopping 329 yards on the ground against UCLA. The Washington ground game has been held down for the most part but that should change here. Remember, the Huskies did run for 200 yards against Arkansas State and 176 yards against Oregon State earlier this season so they're certainly capable of salting this game away should they build a considerable lead. We can expect the Huskies to be afforded some extra offensive possessions in this contest, noting that Arizona simply hasn't taken care of the football, turning it over a whopping 12 times over its last four games. Washington got a big boost on the defensive side of the football with extraordinary pass rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui getting on the field for 10 plays against UCLA in his long-awaited return from a torn achilles. He's expected to see more action this week and should wreak havoc against a very beatable Arizona offensive front. The Huskies defense is loaded with talent and experience but hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations this season. With that being said, teams that don't boast much of a ground game don't have much luck against Washington, as the Huskies have held opposing passing games to just 5.4 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.2 yppa. While they have given up a less than impressive 4.7 yards per rush, that's against opponents that average 4.8 ypr. Despite a rough 2-4 start to the season, there's still a path for the Huskies to reach a Bowl game with four games left on their schedule. It goes without saying they need the win here, however. I'm confident they'll get it, in convincing fashion. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Jose State at 11 pm et on Thursday. We won with San Jose State as it gave San Diego State everything it could handle in a double-overtime loss last week. In fact, I've been fairly high on the Spartans for much of the season. With that being said, I'm going to go the other way and fade SJSU as it hits the road to face winless UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Thursday night. There's no denying the fact that the season has been somewhat of a disaster for San Jose State. The Spartans have quite simply been unable to recapture the magic that led them to a Mountain West Conference championship last season. Last week's loss was a back-breaker both physically and emotionally. While there's no question the Spartans absolutely need to get a win over the Rebels here, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. The schedule won't get any easier from here and at this point, San Jose State might be hard-pressed to simply reach a Bowl game. UNLV checks in 0-6 on the season but it continues to play hard, with its last three and four of six losses this season coming by eight points or less. The Rebels schedule has been tough to be sure, you could argue this is only their second winnable game of the campaign (they lost their season-opener 35-33 as a 1.5-point favorite against FCS squad Eastern Washington). There was certainly no shame in taking better-than-expected Fresno State and Texas-San Antonio teams down to the wire (on the road no less) before dropping a narrow 28-24 decision against Utah State last week. We've seen flashes of brilliance from the Rebels on both sides of the football throughout the campaign but consistency, or a lack thereof, has been an issue. Here, they should benefit from facing a Spartans squad that has dealt with similar problems, but has been just plain bad for the most part on offense, whether due to injuries or otherwise. They could get QB Nick Starkel back from injury this week but even when he was healthy early in the season, their offense still sputtered. The fact that SJSU only managed to pull out four and six-point victories against Hawaii and New Mexico State respectively is telling. While the Rebels look like they're having a whole lot of fun (take note of the slot machine they have on their sideline for home games at Allegiant Stadium) and making progress, the opposite can be said of the Spartans. Here, I'll note that the Spartans average just 24.5 points and outscore the opposition by a minuscule 0.3 points on average when playing on the road off an ATS win over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That includes an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season as they fell by a 30-7 score at USC back in the first week of September. Take UNLV (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +3 v. Browns | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Browns were already going to be in a tough spot on Thursday night, playing on a short week with the pressure ratcheted up following consecutive losses against the Chargers and Cardinals. Now without QB Baker Mayfield, RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt among others, I don't expect them to bounce back against the Broncos. Denver hasn't been playing well, fresh off three straight losses albeit against tough opposition in the Ravens, Steelers (on the road) and Raiders. Here, the Broncos have an excellent 'get right' matchup against what should be a very limited Browns offense with journeyman QB Case Keenum at the helm and a defense that hasn't been nearly as stout as advertised. Consider this a breakout spot for the Broncos offense while I have plenty of confidence in Vic Fangio's ability to scheme up a gameplan to shut down Cleveland's struggling and undermanned offense. Note that for all of its recent struggles, Denver still checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss against a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Denver (8*). |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Coastal Carolina in its most recent game while also cashing with the 'under' in Appalachian State's blowout loss against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the red hot Chanticleers stay on the road for a second straight game. Coastal Carolina was considered somewhat of a 'fluke' during a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season but there's no talk of that this year. The Chanticleers are the real deal. While their offense has been virtually unstoppable, their defense has also held up well. With that being said, few opposing offenses have offered much of a challenge. I do think we'll see CCU get a solid punch from Appalachian State here, however. The Mountaineers turned the football over four times in last week's 41-13 road loss against Lousiana-Lafayette. The hope is that they'll have standout RB Camerun Peoples back for this midweek affair, although even if he can't go, I still expect them to get well into the 20's at the very least. Defensively, Appalachian State is brimming with talent but that was the case last year as well. Despite holding the Chanticleers to 12-of-21 passing in that 2020 meeting, the Mountaineers still gave up 34 points. Meanwhile, they managed to score 23 points themselves despite three turnovers. In the last two games we saw Coastal Carolina put up 111 points and complete 43-of-51 passes for nearly 700 yards without barely breaking a sweat. The Chanticleers check in having run for over 200 yards in all six games this season. This is a team that's firing on all cylinders offensively with QB Grayson McCall one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. I do think we see Appalachian State get enough offensive possessions to inflict some damage in this one - enough to help the final score up and 'over' the total. Last year's matchup featured a real defensive tone yet still got to 57 total points. Two years ago, these two teams combined to score a whopping 93 points. Expect this one to fall somewhere between those two numbers. Take the over (10*). |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This Patriots are in a terrific spot on Sunday as they return home to host the Cowboys who are coming off four straight wins, including a perfect 3-0 homestand. The last time we saw Dallas play on the road, it eked out a 20-17 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Cowboys have only managed to split two road games this season, with both of those games decided by a field goal or less. Another close game should be in order on Sunday. New England was in a clear letdown spot last week on the road against the lowly Texans. Credit the Pats and rookie QB Mac Jones for pulling out a victory even if they didn't manage to cover the lofty pointspread. Here, we find Dallas a long-term loser at 39-59 ATS when playing on the road off a home victory, outscored by 1.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pats are an impressive 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games as a home underdog, including a 1-0 ATS mark this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take New England (10*). |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -175 | 37-14 | Loss | -175 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland moneyline over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I think this play is more straight-forward than most are making it out to be. Yes, the Cardinals are the league's lone undefeated team but their wins have come against disappointing Tennessee and Minnesota squads, the lowly Jaguars, the Rams in a clear letdown spot off a win over the then-undefeated defending Super Bowl champion Bucs and the Niners who were giving rookie QB Trey Lance his first career start. Now the Cards roll into the Dawg Pound to face a Browns squad that's coming off a near-miss against the Chargers in Los Angeles last week. Cleveland is missing some key cogs, including RB Nick Chubb, but this one's more about the Browns defense. I look for them to harass Cards QB Kyler Murray all afternoon long and ultimately force a key second half turnover that turns the tide in this contest. Take Cleveland moneyline (6*). |
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10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts -10 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no reason for the Colts to be down on themselves following an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If anything, they should bring positive momentum from that game and now find themselves in a smash spot against the Texans, who may not win another game this season (that's not a stretch). Houston fell just short at home against the Patriots last week - who were in a clear flat spot off their matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Now the Texans go into Indianapolis without two key cogs on their offensive line in Justin Britt and Laremy Tunsil. The Colts offense has been quietly effective over the last two weeks, running fot 139 and 123 yards while QB Carson Wentz has come to life, completing 49-of-67 passes for 600 yards over that stretch. With one of the more underrated backfields in the entire NFL, the Colts have the ability to salt this game away should they build a considerable second half lead, as we expect. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens keep finding ways to win and I don't expect the Chargers to be the ones to end their winning streak on Sunday afternoon. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its last game over the last three seasons. The Browns were set up on a tee for the Chargers last Sunday in Los Angeles yet they needed a fourth quarter rally to earn the win (and cover). We actually won with the Bolts in that contest. Meanwhile, the Ravens had no business winning against the Colts last Monday night but pulling out unlikely wins has been their M.O. this season and here they comfortably find themselves in the second game of a four-game homestand. QB Lamar Jackson is balling out right now and while the Chargers defense offers a considerable challenge, I think he'll be up for it after completing 37-of-43 passes for 437 yards on Monday night. While the talent is there, save for the Raiders and Washington Football Team, the Chargers haven't really been able to stop anyone this season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah +1 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah over Arizona State at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arizona State in its 18-point victory over Stanford last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Sun Devils here as they head on the road for only the second time this season to face Utah on Saturday night. Keep in mind, Arizona State's lone loss this season came away from home as it fell 27-17 against BYU. The Sun Devils didn't come out of last week's win unscathed as they're dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football. Key DT Jermayne Lole is gone for the season while safety Evan Fields is questionable to play against the Utes on Saturday. Those are only a couple of the walking wounded. Utah continues to make up for lost time after starting the season with two losses in its first three games (the Utes lost those games outright as favorites on the road against BYU and San Diego State). After posting consecutive wins over Washington State and USC and with six very winnable games coming up after this one in Pac-12 play, everything is still in front of the Utes despite their poor start. Note that Utah checks in 12-3 ATS from October on over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.5 points along the way. On the flip side, the Sun Devils are a miserable 24-42 ATS the last 66 times they've come off victories in four or five of their last six games, as is the case here (5-1 on the season). Take Utah (9*). |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State -10.5 v. New Mexico | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Saturday. It seems that everyone was down on Colorado State at the start of the season and perhaps for good reason as they opened with a 42-23 loss to FCS squad South Dakota State and followed that up with a defeat at the hands of lowly Vanderbilt. But then a funny thing happened, the Rams upset Toledo 22-6 at the Glass Bowl and proceeded to give top-five ranked Iowa a serious run in an eventual 10-point loss (on the road) before crushing San Jose State 32-14 last Saturday. The Rams have a lot going for them now and while it won't be easy, there is a path for them to potentially reach a Bowl game, but they need to keep it rolling in this very winnable game against New Mexico and I'm confident they will. Colorado State QB Todd Centeio is coming off arguably his best performance of the season as he completed 19-of-23 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in last week's rout of San Jose State. Most importantly, he's taking good care of the football, having not thrown a single interception over the last three games, despite facing a pretty tough slate of defensive opponents over that stretch. Centeio isn't just a passer either, he can make plays with his legs, having run for at least 37 yards in three of the last four games. There's reason to believe Centeio will have some help in this one as the Rams backfield is coming off their best performance of the season. Saturday's opponent, New Mexico, got off to a 2-0 start this season but that was thanks to facing the likes of FCS squad Houston Baptist and New Mexico State. Since then, the Aggies have gone 0-4, outscored by a wide 123-30 margin. The injuries are starting to pile up, with Kentucky transfer QB Terry Wilson the latest to go down. He's questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he can go, I'm not convinced the offense can do much, noting that the only seven points the Aggies scored last week against San Diego State came by way of a fumble return for a touchdown. You would have to go back five-and-a-half quarters to find the last time New Mexico State scored an offensive touchdown. That's the Aggies only offensive TD over their last 11 quarters of football. Take Colorado State (10*). |
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10-16-21 | BYU v. Baylor UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don't count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they've forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week's game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I'm confident we'll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron managed to score 35 points in last week's upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don't count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It's worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven't been as bad as we've seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for 'just' 37 yards. It's not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron's opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there's reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don't think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning 'style points' - they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can't put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they've held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the 'under' checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Duke v. Virginia OVER 69.5 | 0-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The fact that the 'under' has cashed in Duke's last two games and each of Virginia's last three contests is the only thing keeping this number even reasonably in check on Saturday. I realize we're working with a lofty total still, but I do think it could be even higher. Duke's defense lacks the talent and experience to slow anyone down. Sure, the Blue Devils held FCS squad North Carolina A&T and a punchless Northwestern offense down earlier in the season but since then they've been flamed for 33, 38 and 31 points in games against Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Things certainly don't get any easier against a Virginia offense that likes to bomb away, having attempted 40+ passes in five straight games and 57 or more in three of its last four contests. Back to Duke, its offense looks poised for a breakout here with QB Gunnar Holmberg settling in and throwing for touchdown passes in four straight games, topping the 290-yard mark three times over that stretch. He remains a threat to run as well, noting that he scored four rushing touchdowns in a game against Kansas back in late September. We've also seen RB Mataeo Durant emerge as a home run threat out of the backfield, running for over 100 yards in five of six games and north of 150 yards on two occasions this season. Virginia can't help but get involved in shootouts on a weekly basis as it allows 5.2 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Were it not for nine turnovers in its last five games, Virginia's offense would have posted monster numbers this season. As it is, the Cavaliers are still stuffing the boxscore, racking up over 400 passing yards in four of their last five games. Note that the Blue Devils haven't had a lick of success against the pass this season, allowing 431 pass yards per game on a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Take the over (9*). |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +8 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 32 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. While San Jose State hasn't gotten off to the start it hoped for this season, due in part to losing QB Nick Starkel to injury, everything is still in front of the Spartans. I still see a path to seven victories and a Bowl game but the turnaround has to start here against San Diego State on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Spartans upset the Aztecs as a double-digit road underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. While San Jose State hasn't played as well as it did during that magical 2020 campaign, I still believe it can hang with an Aztecs squad that also isn't without its flaws. San Diego State rolled to a 31-7 victory over New Mexico last Saturday, improving to a perfect 5-0 on the season. The Spartans certainly know what to expect when it comes to the Aztecs offense. San Diego State will lean heavily on its two-headed monster in the backfield, Greg and Chance Bell. If there's one area where the Spartans defense has been stout, it's against the run as they've limited opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season. With a still unproven QB in Jordon Brookshire, who has been banged-up for most of the season, the Aztecs aerial attack isn't all that imposing. It remains to be seen whether San Jose State QB Starkel can return for this game. Even if he can't, I do expect Nick Nash to perform better than he did in last week's road game against Colorado State. Nash has had enough playing time going back to last season to settle into the offense a little bit and is more of a dual threat than Starkel. Consider San Diego State's defense has feasted on the likes of New Mexico State, Arizona, Towson and New Mexico this season. In its only real test it allowed 31 points in a narrow two-point win over Utah. San Jose State, meanwhile, has only had two home games, scoring a whopping 82 points in those two contests, albeit against weaker opposition. Take San Jose State (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It's going to take a monumental defensive effort to slow the Bucs offense right now (yes, I realize they're just one game removed from a heavy rain-induced slugfest in New England) as they feature a number of elite players performing at a career-best levels. Tom Brady is averaging north of 350 passing yards per game and has already racked up 15 touchdown passes. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are playing out of their minds right now while we're bound to see Chris Godwin explode any week now, noting that he drew a whopping 11 targets against the Dolphins last Sunday. The Eagles haven't been tough against the pass in recent years and that certainly hasn't changed here in 2021, particularly against elite opposing quarterbacks (ugly performances against Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes come to mind). The only difference with the Eagles defense this year is that they're struggling to stop the run as well, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. I like the fact that the Bucs have finally settled on Lenny Fournette in a lead-back role. The Bucs aren't without their issues defensively, largely due to injuries in their secondary. Antoine Winfield Jr. is the latest key cog to go down with an injury. While it's possible he plays, that's no certainty as he deals with a concussion on a short week. With the Eagles low-scoring 21-18 win over the defensive-minded Panthers fresh in everyone's minds, we're able to take advantage of a reasonable total here. Keep in mind, Philadelphia has also been involved in games totaling 62 points against Dallas (we won with the 'over' in that one) and 72 points against Kansas City. Game script has resulted in a few other low-scoring affairs, but in this spot, I fully expect to see the Eagles playing from behind for much of the night - just as they were in those high-scoring affairs against the Cowboys and Chiefs. While I'm not all that high on Jalen Hurts as the long-term solution for the Eagles at quarterback, there's no denying he's a baller, certainly capable of taking advantage of a banged-up, underperforming Bucs defense. Even the punchless Dolphins offense, led by Jacoby Brissett, was able to put up 17 points just past the midway point of the third quarter last week, on the road no less. Miami's offense fizzled from there while the Bucs kept pouring it on, as they're known to do, scoring three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns. As much as I like playing primetime 'unders', I don't believe this matchup fits the bill. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While some will look at this matchup and see a high posted total given Navy's reputation for running the football and eating clock in the process, I believe the number will prove too low. I simply feel this game has big-play potential from start to finish and projects as precisely the shootout the oddsmakers are expecting. Of course, last year's matchup between the Midshipmen and Tigers fizzed, ending with just 17 total points despite the total being set in the mid-60's. I expect a different story to unfold here. Navy has had a miserable time trying to stop opposing offenses, whether it's on the ground or through the air. The Middies check into this one allowing 8.3 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush. Their depth on defense has been seriously tested as they lost two of their five best defenders earlier in the season, Tama Tuitele (transfer portal) and Mitchell West (season-ending knee injury). While they haven't been truly boat-raced since their season-opening 49-7 rout at the hands of Marshall, they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last three games. Two weeks ago against a comparable offense to the one they'll face on Thursday, they gave up three touchdown drives in the game's first 29 minutes against Central Florida. Memphis poses a stiff challenge with an offense that has been highly-consistent and explosive at times this season. QB Seth Henigan isn't afraid to bomb away and he should find plenty of success throwing on an average Navy secondary. Henigan has attempted 97 passes in the Tigers last two games, throwing for nearly 800 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has some mobility and should give the Middies plenty of headaches on Thursday night. The fact that Asa Martin, a key transfer at running back, has only had 14 carries for the Tigers this season is telling. The Memphis backfield is brimming with talent and with a steady rotation should be able to stay fresh and excel against an undersized Navy defensive front. On the flip side, few teams have stuck with the run against Memphis this season but we know the Midshipmen will with their triple-option attack. Navy hogged the time of possession last year, churning out well over 200 rush yards on north of 50 attempts against the Tigers last season. Here, I look for Navy to hit a few more home runs and perhaps not put together as many of those long, clock-churning drives. We saw some leaks in the Memphis run defense last week as it was torched for 235 yards on 44 attempts - good for well over 5.0 yards per rush - and three touchdowns against Tulsa. Playing on a short week here, I don't expect there to be any quick fixes. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these offenses are ultra-talented and capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, they'll both be facing their toughest defensive opponent to date on Tuesday night. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 45 points as the Ragin' Cajuns pulled off an outright upset away from home. In what should be a similarly tightly-contested affair, I expect points to come at a premium. Both squads are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the football. In fact, the majority of the defenders that starred in last year's matchup that featured just 18 completed passes between the two teams are back in the fold here in 2021. It's also notable that both teams have somehow avoided the injury bug (for the most part) through the first month and a half of the season. Louisiana recently welcomed back star LB Ferrod Gardner and he's chipped in 11 tackles and generally wreaked havoc in two games. Appalachian State is strong from the back-end in (by that I mean their secondary is their strength) and that's what we want to see when backing a college football 'under'. Ragin' Cajuns QB Levi Lewis is an experienced leader of the offense but he's often relegated to 'game manager' role in tough matchups such as this one. Note that he's completed more than 19 passes just twice in five games this season, with one of those efforts coming as the Cajuns played in catch-up mode in a season-opening blowout loss on the road against Texas. Save for a 49-point explosion against a down-trodden Ohio squad, the Ragin' Cajuns have generally been held in check on offense, topping out at 28 points in their other four games. Appalachian State busted out for 45 points last time out but that performance came against a Georgia State squad that earlier in the season allowed 102 points in consecutive games against Army and North Carolina. In their toughest previous defensive test this season, the Mountaineers scored just 23 points in a two-point loss at Miami. Of course, it's not as if the Canes are a defensive powerhouse this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Desperately trying to secure their first victory of the season, the Colts have thrown the football 38, 36, 37 and 32 times in their first four games but that pass-heavy approach has proven rather fruitless as they've topped out at just 245 yards through the air. Now that they have a win under their belts, I suspect we'll see them revert to a more ground-oriented approach in a tough road game in Baltimore. Despite their lacking talent, there is reason to believe the Colts can extend some drives and effectively shorten this game noting that only four teams have given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs than the Ravens. With a banged-up offensively line, we can expect Colts head coach Frank Reich to scheme up a run-heavy gameplan on offense that should also include plenty of dinking-and-dunking from QB Carson Wentz. On the flip side, this spot wraps up a soft three-game stretch in the Ravens schedule and they've feasted so far, allowing a grand total of 24 points in wins over the Lions and Broncos. They faced the Colts in a less-friendly environment last season, on the road in a game that featured a closing total of 47.5 points and gave up just 10 points in a two-touchdown victory that easily cruised 'under' the total. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has somewhat surprisingly thrown the football a whopping 68 times in the last two games, completing only 38 of those pass attempts. I expect Jackson to have limited success delivering big plays through the air against the Colts conservative zone defense. Note that the 'under' has gone 65-28 including 25-12 in the last 10 seasons with an elite team (.750 win percentage or better) returning home off an outright underdog road win with a total between 42 and 49.5 points with that situation producing an average total of only 41.7 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up for the 49ers as they look to bounce back from consecutive home losses against the Packers and Seahawks while facing a Cardinals squad that is coming off a monumental beatdown of the Rams, on the road no less, last week. As good as the Cardinals have been, I don't find them to be all that intimidating of a team to bet against simply due to the leaky nature of their defense. The fact that Arizona is allowing 5.2 yards per rush this season sets the Niners up well in this spot, even with San Francisco still banged-up at the running back position. Of course, the big news here is that Trey Lance is expected to get his first start for San Francisco, representing a major upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo in my opinion. Only six teams have been flamed for more quarterback rushing yards than the Cards this season, which really helps open up the playbook for dual-threat Lance in this spot. Note that the 49ers have averaged 28.5 points per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.7 points the last 10 times they've played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. They've gone an impressive 16-5 ATS the last 21 times they've come off an outright loss against a division opponent as a favorite, outscoring the opposition by eight points on average in that situation. The Cards are certainly not a trustworthy home favorite, having gone 1-8 ATS in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, actually getting outscored by 1.9 points on average. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout as the Cardinals return home off a huge win over the Rams to host another division foe, the 49ers, on Sunday afternoon in Glendale. This total has actually dropped since opening, a curious move considering the absence of Jimmy G. actually leads me to upgrade the Niners offense with rookie Trey Lance at the helm. Lance has had enough reps with the ones both in the preseason and in limited work during the regular season to leave me confident with him running the offense against a very beatable Cardinals defense on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, only six teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than Arizona this season. In general, the Cards haven't been able to stop opposing running games, giving up well north of five yards per rush. Of course, we know that the Cards can sling it with QB Kyler Murray turning in an MVP caliber season so far. There's little reason to expect Arizona to slow down offensively in this one with the 49ers once again proving to be an overrated defensive squad due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 the last 10 times the 49ers have played on the road after getting upset as a home favorite against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 52.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 45 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Few were paying much attention but we finally saw some signs of life from the Bears offense in last Sunday's much-needed bounce-back win over the Lions. I expect to see further progression from rookie QB Justin Fields and the Chicago offense in this one. While the Raiders pass rush has been terrific, I still have my questions about the secondary and I'm confident that Fields can buy enough time in and out of the pocket to find his targets down field for some big plays through the air in this one. Meanwhile, the Bears pass defense got exposed in its lone previous indoor game on the fast track at So-Fi Stadium back in Week 1, allowing Matt Stafford to go off for 20-of-26 passing for 312 yards. While the Raiders aren't the Rams, I do think we'll see Derek Carr make a concerted effort to push the ball down the field more than we saw in Monday's snoozer against the Chargers. There's little reason for the Raiders to bang their heads against the wall trying to run the football against a stout Bears run defense here and it's worth noting that Las Vegas has aired it out a combined 99 times in its two previous home games, albeit boosted by overtime in both of those games. Take the over (8*). |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers -2 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I think the Browns would have been well-advised to perhaps shut QB Baker Mayfield down for a game or two (he's dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder) given how out of sorts he appeared in last week's 14-7 escape against the disjointed Vikings in Minnesota. Now he'll be going against a much tougher defense, and doing so with a cluster of injuries on his offensive line. On a positive note, the Browns run-centric offense will be going up against a very beatable Los Angeles run defense here (that allows over five yards per rush). However, given the fact I project the Browns to be playing from behind in this one and not well-positioned to pound away on the ground, I'm not sure that will matter all that much. I still don't believe we've seen the best of the Chargers offense yet. That's saying something as they enter this one off a string of clean, efficient performances. QB Justin Herbert faces a tough test here, but we know the Browns defense is beatable based on what we saw earlier in this season when they were blow-torched by Patrick Mahomes and then by an anemic Texans offense guided by Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills. This will be Cleveland's most difficult defensive matchup since Week 1 against Kansas City. Strong starts have been commonplace for the Browns in recent years but it's worth noting that they've gone a miserable 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games between Weeks 5 and 9, outscored by 9.2 points on average. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total has dropped considerably from the look-ahead number of 50.5, too much so in my opinion. Yes, Browns QB Baker Mayfield looked very uncomfortable in last week's ugly 14-7 win in Minnesota as he continues to battle through an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. With that being said, Cleveland's offense is generally run-heavy and here they draw a Chargers defense that has allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Browns are known for their vaunted defense but I expect that unit to get exposed here. Keep in mind, Cleveland's last three games have come against the Texans, Bears and Vikings - all three teams have issues on offense, and struggled to contain the Browns tremendous pass rush. I don't expect the Chargers to have that problem here as they boast a much-improved offensive line that has done an excellent job of keeping QB Justin Herbert clean this season. Herbert and his receiving corps has a considerable advantage against a very beatable Browns pass defense that hasn't been truly tested since getting owned by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs back in Week 1 (remember, even the Texans with Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills padded their offensive stats against this defense in Week 2). Given the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results last week and the Chargers have actually yet to record an 'over' this season, I believe we're dealing with a total that's lower than it should be in this AFC showdown. Take the over (7*). |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Packers double-digit yawner of a win over the Steelers last Sunday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Green Bay heads to Cincinnati to face the upstart Bengals. Green Bay essentially could have named its score against Pittsburgh last week but elected to call off the dogs on offense in the second half after building a big lead and realizing Pittsburgh's utter inability to mount an offensive attack. I fully expect the Packers offense to get rolling again in this matchup, even against a better-than-expected Cincinnati defense. The Bengals defense has certainly benefited from the slate of quarterbacks it has faced - a list that includes Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton/Justin Fields, Ben Roethlisberger and still-struggling first overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. This will clearly be the Bengals toughest test to date against Aaron Rodgers and the red hot Packers offense. On the flip side, we've seen Cincinnati begin to open up the passing playbook a little more for sophomore starter Joe Burrow as he's more than proven that he's healthy after last season's devastating injury. Burrow catches a break here with the Packers missing arguably their top defender, CB Jaire Alexander. With RB Joe Mixon dealing with a nagging ankle injury, Burrow will likely be asked to shoulder more of the load in this one and I'm confident he can find some success going over the top with his excellent receiving corps. Take the over (9*). |
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10-09-21 | Connecticut v. UMass +3 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Independents Game of the Year. My selection is on Massachusetts plus the points over Connecticut at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm actually surprised we've seen this line flip since opening with Connecticut now favored in advance of Saturday's 'toilet bowl' matchup between two of the country's worst FBS teams. I won't spend much time waxing on about how impressive UMass is. That's simply not the case. However, I do feel that the Minutemen are further along in their progression back to respectability than UConn, which was of course forced to cancel its entire 2020 season. With this being a rivalry game, you can be sure the UMass players that were on board for 2019's beatdown at the hands of the Huskies haven't forgotten about it. This is the perfect opportunity to gain an ounce of revenge given the state of UConn. We actually won with the Huskies in last week's narrow loss against lowly Vanderbilt. They were catching far too many points in that one - I wasn't one bit surprised that they were competitive, riding high off a near-miss against Wyoming the week previous. Here, however, I expect to see somewhat of a letdown. UMass has faced a brutal early season schedule, going up against Pitt and Coastal Carolina on the road and Boston College, Eastern Michigan and Toledo at home. Let's face it, none of those games were winnable. I will give credit to the Minutemen for showing signs of life offensively, putting up 28 points in consecutive weeks against BC and EMU earlier in the season. After getting shut down by CCU and Toledo over the last two weeks, I'm confident they can get back on track offensively against a toothless UConn defense. Note that the Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Steven Krajewski. He caught Vandy a little flat-footed in last week's game but won't be so fortunate here as the Minutemen have some game film to break down. Not only are they deep into the QB depth chart but the Huskies are also dealing with somewhat of a Covid-19 breakout on the offensive line. It remains to be seen who will be good to go for Saturday's contest. Take Massachusetts (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse UNDER 59 | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Wake Forest's wild 37-34 win over Louisville but it's certainly worth noting that were it not for an unthinkable defensive breakdown from the Demon Deacons that allowed a 70+ yard touchdown completion in the final minutes, we likely would have cashed that ticket. It was not a good game as a whole for the Wake defense but I do see this as a fine bounce-back spot against an inconsistent Syracuse offense on Saturday. On the flip side of that, the Demon Deacons have now scored 35 points or more in five straight games. As good as their offense is, I don't believe that trend is sustainable. While the Orange are coming off a wild, high-scoring shootout of their own at Florida State last week, I don't believe that's their preferred type of game. Note that their two previous home games against FBS opposition totaled just 24 and 45 points against Rutgers and Liberty, respectively. I still have my doubts as to whether the Syracuse offense can match last week's production against a tougher opponent here, even with the benefit of playing at home. When these two teams met last Halloween we saw an almost identical posted total. Wake ended up winning that game in blowout fashion, 38-14, easily staying 'under' the total we're dealing with here. Syracuse will be looking to do a much better job of keeping its offense on the field and controlling the time of possession here after Wake dominated in that department in last year's meeting to the tune of a 36:14 to 23:46 edge. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Virginia v. Louisville -2.5 | 34-33 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday. We faded the Cardinals last week and missed the mark as they gave Wake Forest everything it could handle, away from home no less, ultimately losing on a last-second field goal. Here, the Cardinals draw a more favorable matchup back at home as they look to bounce back against an up-and-down Virginia team that is coming off a two-point win in Miami last week. The Cavaliers just as easily could have lost that game but the Canes missed a last-second field goal that would have secured the win. Don't be fooled by that narrow win, Virginia isn't playing particularly well right now, with just one victory in its last three games, allowing a whopping 124 points over that stretch. Now the Cavaliers have to face a Louisville offense that has really gotten rolling after a slow start to the season. Cards QB Malik Cunningham entered the season with high expectations and lately he's been delivering, both with his arm and his legs. While I still have questions about the Cardinals defense, I believe this is a matchup they can handle, especially after limiting Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman to just 23-of-40 passing in last Saturday's game. These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons with the home side winning on both occasions. Louisville's ground attack was dominant in those two games, racking up 544 rushing yards. Allowing five yards per rush this season, the Cavs don't appear well-positioned to slow the Cardinals here. Take Louisville (9*). |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -111 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a bounce-back spot for Ole Miss as it returns home licking its wounds off a blowout loss at Alabama while Arkansas stays on the road after getting crushed at Georgia. I don't think there's any question, there was a bit of 'smoke and mirrors' involved in Arkansas' perfect 4-0 start to the season. We certainly saw the Hogs weren't ready for primetime in last week's rout at the hands of the Bulldogs. While there was no real shame in losing to a team as good as Georgia, it was the way Arkansas got dominated that was concerning. Yes, Ole Miss got blown out as well but at least it was able to show some push-back, scoring 21 points in a three-touchdown loss. The Rebels should be able to get right back on track here as they play extremely fast and have the potential to overwhelm a Razorbacks offense that simply isn't built to play from behind. Note that Arkansas has yet to complete more than 14 passes in a game this season. The Hogs rely heavily on their ground attack but the Rebels have proven to be fairly stout against the run. Even in last week's game against mighty Alabama, with game script favoring the Crimson Tide running wild over the course of the afternoon, Ole Miss still allowed just a shade north of four yards per rush. Here, we'll back the Rebels noting that they've gone 25-10 ATS the last 35 times they've come off consecutive games in which they forced less than two turnovers, as is the case here, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 7.4 points. Also note that Arkansas has averaged just 17.2 points per game, outscored by 8.5 points on average, the last 15 times it has come off a road loss by 28 points or more. Take Ole Miss (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State -12.5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I believe this game has blowout potential as Arizona State is rolling again off consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado and UCLA. Stanford is fresh off an emotional, come-from-behind overtime win over Oregon. Dealing with a number of key injuries and playing on the road on a short week, I don't see this as a favorable spot for the Cardinal. It's likely we'll see Stanford play from behind for much of the night and while they did manage to come back against Oregon last week, they would be playing with fire attempting to do so again here. That's because the Cardinal passing attack isn't built to bomb away. Stanford has completed 20 passes or fewer in each of its last four games since opening the season with 23 pass completions in a blowout loss against Kansas State (the Cardinal threw for just 194 yards in that game). Note that Stanford is losing the time of possession battle by an average of well north of three minutes, while averaging just 4.2 yards per rush this season. By contrast, the Sun Devils absolutely have the ability to salt this game away with a ground attack that averages 5.5 yards per rush this season. While the Sun Devils offense gets a lot of the attention, their experienced, talented defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while not allowing a single opponent to throw for more than 235 yards. Note that Stanford is allowing 39.3 points per game when playing as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take Arizona State (10*). |
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10-07-21 | Rams -132 v. Seahawks | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles first half moneyline over Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We actually won with the Seahawks in the first half in Sunday's much-needed road win over the 49ers. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the 'Hawks in this spot. The Rams got caught flat-footed in a mistake-laden loss to the Cardinals at home this past Sunday. I think they'll benefit from getting right back at it on a short week and the fact they're going up against a division opponent here on Thursday, as they look to quickly regroup and put together a much cleaner performance. They're set up nicely in the first half of this one, noting that under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have posted a perfect 9-0 ATS mark in the first half when playing on the road off a loss, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.0 points. Keep in mind, we're only talking about the first half so that's a considerable margin. They're also 7-0 ATS against the first half line under McVay when playing on the road after an upset loss as a favorite, outscoring the opposition by 5.7 points on average in that spot. Keep in mind, these teams met three times last season, including a playoff matchup, and the road team didn't trail at the half in any of those contests. In the two games played here in Seattle, the Rams hung tough in the first half despite having a much weaker offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm (they completed just 36-of-68 passes in those two games). Here, Los Angeles catches Seattle dealing with key injuries on both sides of the football. RB Chris Carson is questionable to play after missing practice all week. WR Tyler Lockett will be good to go but isn't 100% healthy due to a nagging hip injury. DEs Carlos Dunlap and Darrell Taylor are both dealing with injuries as well. While it's usually the road team that is simply looking to 'weather the storm' early in the game, I think the case can be made that it will be the home side attempting to do so here as the Rams are sure to come out aggressively off last Sunday's disappointing division loss. Take Los Angeles first half moneyline (8*). |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. These teams are certainly heading in opposite directions with Houston sitting at 4-1 and Tulane stuck at 1-4. All is not lost for the Green Wave, however. There are still seven games remaining on the schedule with the toughest matchup (against Cincinnati) coming at home. This is the same Tulane squad that opened the season with a narrow five-point loss on the road against Oklahoma. Turnovers have been a major problem as the Green Wave have coughed up the football eight times over their last two games. I do think that's something they can clean up here, however, and believe we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that the Green Wave are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points on average in that spot. Under head coach Willie Fritz, Tulane has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.8 points after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Houston is just 2-9 ATS under head coach Dana Holgorsen when coming off an ATS victory, outscored by 3.6 points on average in that situation. I'll also note that the Green Wave have posted an impressive 6-0 ATS mark, outscoring opponents by 4.6 point son average, under Fritz when facing opponents that average 34 or more points per game, as is the case with Houston here. Take Tulane (9*). |
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10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Coastal Carolina is a bonafide juggernaut and I look for it to keep rolling against Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves have fallen on hard times, losing 11 of 15 games since the start of last season. Keep in mind, this is a program that lost no more than five games in eight of nine seasons between 2011 and 2019. The offense remains explosive at times, however I don't like the dual quarterback situation between James Blackman and Layne Hatcher. Both are solid in their own right but sharing time just doesn't seem like the answer, even if head coach Butch Jones seems bent on it continuing. Defensively, Arkansas State has been a mess, struggling to improve after a disastrous 2020 season. The Red Wolves simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the likes of the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has done a tremendous job of mixing up tempo on offense, essentially toying with the majority of the defenses it has faced this season. QB Grayson McCall turned his ankle in last week's win over Louisiana-Monroe but all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one and was lifted from last Saturday's game as a precaution only. With an offense that can score at will and an underrated defense that isn't simply along for the ride, I'm confident the Chanticleers can keep the back door firmly closed in this one. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I get it. Both of these teams scored 30+ points last week and now clash in a division game on Monday Night Football, leading many to back the 'under' as the so-called 'sharp' play. I believe this one is being totaled as a potential shootout for good reason, however, and will stick with what's been working and play the 'over' on MNF. The Raiders are playing with house money at this point. Most expected they would be 1-2 or possibly 2-1 at best entering Week 4 but here they are sitting atop the AFC West with a flawless 3-0 record. I don't expect them to suddenly get tentative here. While their defense has held up better than most anticipated, I'm not all that high on that unit. Their offense on the other hand has impressed me and I believe they can find continued success, even in this tough road matchup on Monday. Note that opponents have gashed the Chargers defense in two particular areas this season, running the football and on tight end targets. Los Angeles checks in allowing well north of five yards per rush and I believe that sets up the Raiders underrated ground attack well in this one. It's been a bit of a 'plug-and-play' situation in the backfield for Las Vegas this season, with Peyton Barber being the most recent 'next man up'. Regardless who gets the lion's share of the carries on Monday night, I think the Raiders can gash the Chargers run defense. Meanwhile, Las Vegas obviously has one of the best in the business at tight end in Darren Waller. He's keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night trying to come up with schemes to defend him. I mentioned I'm not all that high on the Raiders defense. I believe this is a spot where they could very well get flamed by an ascending Chargers offense. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is absolutely locked in right now, showing incredible chemistry with WR Mike Williams. Only six other teams have given up more catches to wide receivers than the Raiders and I expect to see the Chargers wideouts make the most of their opportunities in this one. Of course, the Las Vegas run defense hasn't been all that imposing in the early going, opening the door for a big night from Chargers do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler as well. It's a pick-your-poison type of matchup for the Raiders defense that appeared to wear down over the course of the game against an otherwise punchless Dolphins offense last Sunday. This game represents a big step up in class for the Raiders 'D' after going against Pittsburgh and Miami in consecutive weeks. A Monday night 'under' result is certainly coming but I don't think this is the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Sure, I'd like to (and expected to) be working with a higher posted total in this one, but I still believe there's considerable value in backing the 'under' with the Packers coming off consecutive 'over' results. The Steelers offense is arguably the most predictable in the entire league right now and there's really nowhere for them to turn for answers at this point. Big Ben's time as a useful starting quarterback in the NFL is over, and I don't believe that's a knee-jerk reaction at all. Injuries and general wear-and-tear have taken their toll over the years and his decision-making has certainly left a lot to be desired in recent years. Here, with WR Chase Claypool ruled out and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dealing with nagging injuries, we can expect RB Najee Harris to be the focal point of the offense as the Steelers try to effectively shorten this contest and play keep-away from Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense. On a positive note for Pittsburgh, it is expected to have T.J. Watt back from injury. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in consecutive wins over the Lions and 49ers. As good as the Packers offense is, an extended run of 30+ point performances certainly isn't sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with the Steelers playing on the road off a home loss with those games totaling an average of 38.8 points. Better still, the 'under' is 21-8 when Pittsburgh plays on the road off an outright loss as a home favorite with that spot producing an average of 38.4 total points. Also note that the Steelers have given up just 15.4 points per game the last 23 times they've come off a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation resulting in an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
NFL First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle plus the points first half over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Seahawks last week in Minnesota as they got off to a strong start but couldn't hold off a desperate Vikings squad in an eventual lopsided loss. Here, I do expect Seattle to bounce back against the division-rival 49ers. However, I don't like the prospect of the Niners making a potential switch at quarterback in the second half should Jimmy G. continue to struggle under center. So instead we'll back the Seahawks in the first half in a situation that has worked out very well over the years. Note that Seattle has gone an impressive 44-26 ATS in the first half the last 70 times it has come off an upset loss as a favorite in its previous game, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Better still, the Seahawks are 23-9 ATS in the first half when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points on average in that situation. I'm not as down on the Seahawks defense as most heading into this one. Yes, Seattle got ripped by a desperate Vikings offense that gameplanned very aggressively in last week's contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Seahawks are now the 'desperate' team coming off consecutive losses. Seattle owns numerous matchup edges on offense in this one, most notably with their passing attack as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (even if he is less than 100% healthy) should feast on a 49ers secondary that is dealing with a cluster of injuries. Defensively, Seattle won't have to deal with a monster tandem like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson at wide receiver this week. Meanwhile, the Niners once-vaunted ground attack has been depleted due to injuries as well with Trey Sermon not looking like the explosive runner they had hoped for in his rookie campaign. Take Seattle first half (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -17 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not one bit afraid of the big number in this one. We've been along for the Bills ride the last couple of weeks, cashing with them in their rout of the Dolphins before hitting the 'over' in last week's blowout win over Washington. I fully expect them to make it three straight lopsided wins against the lowly and reeling Texans on Sunday. Houston was every bit as advertised (finally) last week against Carolina as awful play-calling combined with an inefficient rookie QB in Davis Mills combined to lead to an eventual blowout loss against the Panthers. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Texans on both sides of the football. While he's had a few extra days of preparation, I'm not sure that extra reps in practice are going to make a bit of difference for Mills as he has a subpar supporting cast. WR Brandin Cooks got off to a strong start this season but he'll likely be erased by standout Bills corner Tre'davious White in this one. Outside of Cooks there's little reason for optimism in the Houston offense. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen silenced his critics in resounding fashion against Washington last Sunday and now draws an even more favorable matchup. Allen represents a considerable step up in class from the quarterbacks Houston has faced thus far - a slate that has included Trevor Lawrence (in his first NFL start - on the road no less), Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Allen figures to feast on an unimposing Texans defense with Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll likely to dial up another aggressive gameplan. We've still yet to see Bills WR Stefon Diggs truly explode this season but we've certainly seen glimpses in the last couple of weeks. I'm high on Diggs, but perhaps even higher on Buffalo's ancillary pass-catchers, including underrated TE Dawson Knox. What more can I say about this matchup, I expect the Bills to roll by three touchdowns plus. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Connecticut +15.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This is absolutely a 'plug your nose and bet it' type of a play on Saturday night. I'm as surprised as you that I'm actually getting behind UConn after we successfully faded it in two out of three tries (the lone loss was a free play on the Huskies when they back-doored Army two weeks ago) already this season. I do like the progression I've seen from the Huskies, however, and certainly believe they can hang with another down-trodden program in Vanderbilt. As I mentioned, two weeks ago we saw UConn fall behind 42-0 before halftime at Army before outscoring the Black Knights 21-10 in the second half in an eventual back-door cover. The fact that the Huskies didn't quite in that game meant something and we saw some carry-over in last week's home game against a tough Wyoming squad as UConn jumped out to a 13-0 lead and ultimately hung tough for four quarters in a 24-22 loss. That was certainly an impressive performance on both sides of the football against a Cowboys squad that is a perfect 4-0 on the season. Now the Huskies get a stretch where they can potentially build some confidence, facing Vandy, UMass and Yale in consecutive weeks. Vandy does have a win to its credit this season but that came by just three points against an awful Colorado State squad. Since then, the Commodores have had their doors blown off in two games against Stanford and Georgia, outscored by a combined 103-23 margin. Note that they've scored just one touchdown in their last nine quarters of action, that coming in the final seconds of a game that was long decided against Stanford. The fact that Vandy somehow managed to give up 35 points in less than a quarter of action last week, even against a power program like Georgia, was telling. There are few redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams but I think we're seeing Vandy laying north of a touchdown simply due to the SEC vs. Independent angle. There's a chance that UConn can prove to be a 'tough out' over the remainder of the season and I'm willing to bet on that on Saturday. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Baylor plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm starting to believe in Baylor. Two weeks ago we cashed with the Bears in their rout of lowly Kansas. While that was a game they were certainly expected to win, I liked the way they absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 31 unanswered points in a 45-7 rout. Last week, the Bears were involved in a game they weren't necessarily expected to win but gutted out a hard-fought 31-29 victory over then-14th ranked Iowa State. Now comes a very difficult test in Stillwater, noting that Oklahoma State rolled to a 42-3 victory when these two teams met last December. I think the Bears will be up for the challenge. While Oklahoma State deals with a number of key injuries on both sides of the football (defensive stars Tre Sterling and Trace Ford the most notable), Baylor enters this showdown relatively healthy. We've seen a number of players step up and take on big roles for the Bears this season. It starts with QB Gerry Bohanon, who was given the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season and has certainly made the most of it, seemingly getting better with each passing week. Bohanon has thrown for seven touchdowns while running for another four. He's yet to throw an interception but did fumble twice in last week's victory. Of course it helps to have a tremendous supporting cast. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton make up one of the top wide receiver tandems in the nations - an unappreciated tandem at that. Trestan Ebner was thought to be the 1-A back but he's actually taken a backseat to Abram Smith at times, who has three 118+ yard rushing performances with five touchdowns to his credit already this season. While the Bears are known for their explosive offense, it's their defense that impressed me most this season. This is a loaded unit that was expected to take a big step forward this season and it has. This is a manageable matchup given Oklahoma State has been held to 31 points or less in all four games this season and as I mentioned is missing a few key cogs due to injury on offense. We saw the Cowboys score three offensive touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes last week against Kansas State but they were held to a single field goal the rest of the way. In fact, Oklahoma State hasn't scored a single second half point in its last two games. RB Jaylen Warren has been outstanding the last couple of weeks in particular but he's not better than Breece Hall, who the Bears dealt with against Iowa State last Saturday. Simply put, Baylor has the talent and depth up front and at the back-end to make life miserable for Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders on Saturday night. Provided the Bears don't get swallowed up by the sheer size and importance of this matchup, I believe they can hang for 60 minutes. Take Baylor (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It's not easy to get behind the Seminoles these days as they enter Saturday's matchup with Syracuse sporting a winless 0-4 record. But how many games could we have expected them to win at this point? Three of their four losses have come against Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Louisville - three teams that have combined to post an 11-1 overall record this season. The other loss was a stunner for sure against FCS squad Jacksonville State. The 'Noles clearly got caught letting their guard down in that one, playing on a short week off an overtime loss against Notre Dame and leading by 10 points late in the fourth quarter before the Gamecocks came up with a pair of touchdowns. Nevertheless, the 'Noles continue on and with a tough date at North Carolina looming next week, a win is critical here against Syracuse. The Orange are off to a solid 3-1 start but I'm not all that high on them at this point. The schedule has had everything to do with Syracuse's strong start, noting that its three wins have come against an Ohio squad that is much worse than expected, FCS team Albany and Liberty. The loss came by double-digits at home against Rutgers. The Orange surprisingly went with Garrett Shrader at quarterback in last week's game against Liberty. Shrader is arguably a better runner than passer and is expected to get the start again here. Keep in mind, Florida State just faced one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation in Malik Cunningham of Louisville last week so the 'Noles will certainly be ready for Shrader. RB Sean Tucker has been the big difference-maker for the Orange so far this season - he's coming off a 169-yard rushing effort in last week's win over Liberty. He's risen to the occasion against the weaker squads on Syracuse's schedule but was bottled up for just 54 yards on 13 carries against Rutgers. Despite playing with negative game-script during its 0-4 start, Florida State has actually allowed just 132.3 rush yards per game this season. It's the pass that has hurt the 'Noles most but I'm not convinced that either Shrader or former starter Tommy DeVito are capable of taking advantage for the Orange. On the flip side, note that when teams have chosen to throw on the Orange they've found success to the tune of a 73.5% completion percentage. This sets up as a potential breakout game for Florida State QB McKenzie Milton. I also question whether the Syracuse defense will be able to contain underrated 'Noles RB Jashaun Corbin who has ran for 439 yards and three scores - good for a whopping 9.2 yards per rush through four games this season. The 'Noles are looking to take their frustrations out on someone and I believe the Orange fit the bill. Take Florida State (9*). |
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10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest -6.5 | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Louisville at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are off to a perfect 4-0 start but will face a tough test in the form of Louisville - a team that has had their number over the last couple of seasons - on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem. I expect Wake Forest to rise the occasion, however. This is a different Demon Deacons squad than we've seen in recent years, boasting a ton of talent and experience on both sides of the football. Wake has shown the ability to jump ahead and salt away games from there, which is precisely what we saw last week as it didn't allow another score after Virginia cut its lead to 27-17 with just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. I believe the Deacs' can follow a similar script here, especially with Louisville losing the heart-and-soul of its defense, Monty Montgomery, to a season-ending knee injury. In last week's game in particular, Louisville's opponent Florida State didn't persist with its ground attack nearly enough in the early going, ultimately playing from behind the entire game. When it did decide to test the Cardinals front it found success, including a 75-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. As impressive as the Louisville offense has looked at times, it has also gone stagnant for periods. Last week it scored 31 first half points but then didn't score again in what turned out to be an eight-point win over aforementioned Florida State. There was a game against FCS squad Eastern Kentucky earlier this season where the Cardinals scored an offensive touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter and then didn't find the end zone on offense again until there were just over five minutes left in the third quarter. I expect the Deacs' defensive athleticism to be a difference-maker in this one as they have the personnel to contain Cards dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham. I also won't discount the fact that Wake Forest has had an extra day of preparation having played last Friday night; it does matter as we flip the calendar over to October. Take Wake Forest (8*). |
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10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest UNDER 63 | 34-37 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Wake Forest at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams over the last two seasons with Louisville prevailing in both. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. It's worth noting that Wake Forest has put up 35 points or more in four straight games to open the season. I went back over the last decade and didn't find a single other occurrence where the Demon Deacons accomplished that feat at any time during a season. They came close last year, scoring 35+ points in three straight games. In their next contest they won a low-scoring battle against Virginia Tech by a 23-16 score. I really like the way Wake has been able to salt away victories in the fourth quarter this season. That comes with an effective offensive line and potent rushing attack. Last week against Virginia, Wake didn't allow a single score from five minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Two weeks ago, the Deacs' held the Seminoles off the scoreboard for the entire second half. Louisville isn't running the same 'boom or bust' offense we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. The Cards are content to move up and down the field in small chunks with lots of slants and out-reads, with a healthy dose of their ground attack led by dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham mixed in. I suspect the Deacs' will be content to keep everything in front of them in this one - I really like their speed and athleticism on defense, particularly at the linebacker position and with that in mind, I'm confident they can contain Cunningham for much of the afternoon on Saturday. The Cards would be wise to employ a similar gameplan to what we saw back in Week 1 against high-powered Ole Miss. That means playing 'keep away' while also limiting the type of plays that could allow the turnover-happy Wake defense to feast. The lofty total makes sense given how high-scoring the last two matchups between these two teams have been (I take last year's Louisville blowout win with a grain of salt as it came in the final week of the season after Wake Forest dealt with four cancellations due to Covid protocols), I simply feel it will prove too high in an ACC showdown with a lot at stake. Take the under (8*). |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Maryland at 8 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 in games involving Iowa this season after last Saturday's closer than expected 24-14 win over Colorado State. The fact that the Hawkeyes trailed that game 14-7 at halftime may be concerning at first glance. However, a closer look shows that Iowa actually shut Colorado State out in the first, third and fourth quarters in that game. A 22-yard punt from the Hawkeyes deep in their own territory set up the Rams first touchdown drive - a drive they needed nine plays to turn into a touchdown despite starting from the Iowa 35-yard line. The Hawkeyes next offensive drive ended with an interception that the Rams returned all the way to the Iowa 23-yard line. Colorado State made good with a touchdown on that drive as well but that was it in terms of Rams scoring offense for the remainder of the game. You could argue that this will be Iowa's toughest test to date, although it did already go on the road and defeat rival Iowa State (which was ranked ninth in the country at the time) by a 27-17 score back on September 11th (we won with the 'under' in that game). That game reached 44 total points but did include a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. We've backed Maryland in each of the last two weeks, managing to split those plays thanks to last Saturday's rout of Kent State. The Terps offensive stats are somewhat skewed from playing FCS squad Howard (won 62-0) and Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense that essentially served to give Maryland a number of extra possessions. While I do think the Terps can move the football against this tough Iowa defense, I'm not convinced they can end many drives with 7's on the board. Remember, back in Week 1 Maryland faced a tough home game against West Virginia and while it did put up 30 points, two touchdowns went for 60+ yards thanks to Mountaineers defensive breakdowns - something we're unlikely to see from the fundamentally-sound Hawkeyes defense here. On the flip side, the Terps can play some defense, noting that they've allowed just four touchdowns in their last 15 quarters of action, with one of those coming on a broken play offensive fumble return for a touchdown on the road against Illinois two weeks ago. Iowa has topped out at 34 points this season, and that performance came in a game in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns against Indiana. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 62 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Virginia's blowout loss to Wake Forest last Friday night but were admittedly fortunate to do so as the Cavaliers offered very little defensive resistance in a 37-17 loss. After getting dummied by the North Carolina and Wake Forest offenses over the last two weeks, I do look for a response from the Cavaliers here. As I've noted before this season, Virginia does boast plenty of talent and experience on the defensive side of the football, particularly at the back-end. It was the Cavaliers run defense that got gashed last Friday and I believe that had something to do with the Demon Deacons catching them off guard with a more run-heavy approach. Here, Virginia will catch a Miami team that is coming off a 69-point explosion but that came against FCS squad Central Connecticut State. The Hurricanes are in a bit of a state of flux right now with questions around whether QB D'Eriq King may have lost his starting job. King has been a general disappointment since joining the Canes last season and with freshman Tyler Van Dyke coming in and throwing for 270 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last Saturday, there's a good chance we'll see Van Dyke again here. Regardless who takes the majority of the snaps, I like the 'under'. Keep in mind, Van Dyke is still learning the offense and now will have to prepare on a short week. Virginia opened the season scoring 43, 42 and 39 points in its first three games. That had more to do with the level of opposition they faced (and game script in a wild, high-scoring affair against North Carolina) than anything else. This will be the Cavaliers toughest defensive test to date as they head on the road to take on a Canes defense that is better than it showed in early season losses to Alabama and Michigan State. While they did allow 38 points against Michigan State in their last relevant game, the Canes actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half in that one. It wasn't until late in the fourth quarter that things really unraveled as Spartans standout RB Kenneth Walker wore them down with over 170 yards on the ground. The Cavaliers aren't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Note that last week against a beatable Wake Forest defense, Virginia didn't find the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter. It wasn't able to lean much on its ground attack after falling behind early. I certainly don't think the Cavaliers want QB Brennan Armstrong throwing the football 59 times again in this one. The hope is that they'll have RB Wayne Taulapapa back from a concussion for this game, which would help them grind out longer, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep their overworked defense off the field and effectively shorten this game. Note that the 'under' is 36-16 with Miami having lost three of its last four games ATS, with those contests totaling an average of just 46.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-13 with Virginia coming off consecutive games where it lost the turnover battle, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 46.1 points. There's reason to believe a more conservative gameplan could serve the Cavaliers well as they try to win for the first time in three weeks. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I fully expected this total to rise over the course of the week but that hasn't been the case. In fact, we've seen the opposite play out. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results in Week 2. Regardless the reason, we'll take advantage and back the 'over' on Monday night. This is a 'revenge game' of sorts for Eagles dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. He led Philadelphia on touchdowns on each of the first two drives in his lone start against Dallas last December, and continued to march the offense up and down the field for the remainder of the game but ultimately couldn't find the end zone again in an eventual 37-17 loss. Hurts threw for 342 yards in that game and also led the team in rushing but fumbled twice and tossed an interception that proved to be the team's downfall. That loss dashed the Eagles slim playoff hopes and you can be sure Hurts hasn't forgot about it. I do like the fact that he's catching the Cowboys early in the season here (Eagles head coach at the time Doug Pederson noted that Hurts was banged-up heading into that late-December meeting with the Cowboys), not to mention he'll be facing a depleted Dallas defense that is missing three of its top four edge rushers - a critical defensive position given Hurts mobility. Dallas isn't just dealing with defensive injuries, it has also taken a hit at the wide receiver position with Michael Gallup sidelined and Amari Cooper dealing with cracked ribs. All indications are that Cooper will play and I'm willing to bet on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's ability to come up with a gameplan to take advantage of an Eagles defense that has been vulnerable against the pass in recent years and will also be missing key cogs both up front and at the back-end (notably DE Brandon Graham and S Rodney McLeod) in this one. The emergence of RB Tony Pollard adds another wrinkle to an already dynamic Cowboys offense that might even have a little more juice than usual with QB Dak Prescott returning to the field where he suffered a devastating season-ending injury in Week 5 last year. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 with the Cowboys playing at home against NFC opponents over the last three seasons with those games averaging a total of 60.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks -128 v. Vikings | 17-30 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle moneyline over Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Yes, the Vikings 'need it more' after starting 0-2 but the Seahawks certainly don't want to get off to a 1-2 start, not in a crowded and ultra-competitive NFC West. I simply feel that Seattle is the better team in this matchup and should be able to duplicate what Arizona did to the Vikings offense last week. Minnesota wasted a tremendous offensive performance last week as it scored 30+ points but couldn't secure the win thanks to a missed field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. Were it not for a couple of interceptions the Vikings easily could have given up 40+ points in that loss. This is far from an ideal 'get right' matchup against a Seahawks squad that's coming off a disappointing loss of its own at home against the Titans. Seattle got steamrolled by Derrick Henry in the second half of that contest. Fortunately, they'll be facing a Vikings squad that has a running back in Dalvin Cook that's playing at less than 100% healthy (if he plays at all). Take Seattle moneyline (7*). |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I don't believe for a second that the Raiders are a true contender in the AFC West this season. Yes, they're off to a 2-0 start. However, they just as easily could have started with a loss against the Ravens were it not for some poor execution from Baltimore late in that Monday nighter. Then they took advantage of a Steelers squad that was 'fat and happy' off a season-opening upset win in Buffalo, and continues to employ an aging, noodle-armed starting QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Here, I believe the Raiders face their toughest test to date with a late window home game against the Dolphins, who will certainly be in a foul mood following last week's 35-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bills. While Miami will be without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, I don't believe there's a big drop-off from him to backup Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has proven to be a capable starting QB during his days in Indianapolis and I expect him to find some success in a 'game manager' role against the Raiders here. This one really comes down to the Dolphins defense, and I'm confident they can outplay a very average Raiders offense on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offensive line is banged-up. Derek Carr is dealing with an ankle injury. The Raiders defense has lost a pair of safeties along with DT Gerald McCoy. Note that the Raiders are 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they've come off consecutive games in which they gained 300 or more yards through the air. They're also 28-46 ATS when coming off consecutive wins ATS, outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in that spot. Look for the Fins to at the very least take the Raiders down to the wire in this one. Take Miami (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 45 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expect to see some old-school football as the Bears and Browns do battle in the Dawg Pound on Sunday afternoon. The Bears will be starting rookie Justin Fields at quarterback and while most see him as a major upgrade over veteran Andy Dalton, I'm not so sure it plays out that way on the scoreboard. Fields is still learning the Bears offense, which isn't all that dynamic to begin with. While I am confident in his ability to march the football up and down the field, I'm not convinced he can finish a lot of drives with 7's rather than 3's against a tough Browns defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Browns offense was already run-first before losing WR Jarvis Landry to injury. Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to return to the field on Sunday but I'm convinced he'll be little more than a decoy. Look for the Browns to go run-heavy, even against a Bears front that has been stout against the run through two games. Cleveland has posted a 2-0 o/u record so far this season but I don't expect that 'over' run to reach three in a row on Sunday. Take the under (9*). |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that this game has the highest shootout potential of any of the Bills first three games this season (they previously faced two plodding offenses in the Steelers and Dolphins) this is the lowest total we've seen. I believe it will prove too low on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. The Washington Football Team entered the season with plenty of optimism and dare I say hype, largely due to their potentially fierce defense. Well, that defense has been anything but fierce through two weeks, carved up to the tune of 53 pass completions for well over 550 yards. Now they head to Buffalo to take on a Josh Allen-led Bills offense that has yet to play its best game of the season but will continue to employ an aggressive attack under mastermind coodinator Brian Daboll. Interestingly, Buffalo's ground attack has been just fine, gaining 260 yards on 55 rush attempts. Once the passing attack gets back up to speed, look out. I'm willing to bet on that happening in this matchup. On the flip side, while Buffalo's defensive numbers through two games are solid, it's had everything to do with the opposition it has faced, Pittsburgh with an aging and noodle-armed QB in Ben Roethlisberger and Miami which was forced to turn to journeyman backup QB Jacoby Brissett after Tua Tagovailoa exited early with an injury. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke has already proven to have a gunslinger mentality and enters this game having thrown for 901 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions while also running for 91 yards and a score in four previous appearances since the start of last season. Likely playing in comeback mode for most of the afternoon on Sunday, I expect Heinicke to once again pad his stats and further build on his connection with standout WR Terry McLaurin. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Buffalo -13 v. Old Dominion | 35-34 | Loss | -116 | 58 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday. Buffalo got off to a roaring start this season, blasting FCS squad Wagner 69-7 in its opener. Since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games, albeit as considerable underdogs on the road against Nebraska and at home against Coastal Carolina. There's no reason to be down on the Bulls right now and I fully expect to see them take their frustrations out on Old Dominion this week. The Monarchs are off to an identical 1-2 start although their long-term prospects this season aren't nearly as favorable as Buffalo's. Keep in mind, ODU was forced to cancel its entire 2020 season due to Covid concerns and as a result had a number of players transfer out of the program entirely. That leaves the cupboard somewhat bare this season as the Monarchs look to build the program back up. Note that their lone victory so far came against an FCS team, Hampton. In its other two contests, ODU was outscored by an 87-27 margin against Wake Forest and Liberty. The Monarchs are particularly thin on the defensive side of the football and that was more than evident last Saturday as they were torched for four first half touchdowns against Liberty. Buffalo is precisely the type of team they probably don't want to see this week as the Bulls can beat you in a variety of different ways. It's worth noting that in both of the Monarchs previous losses their opponent has taken their foot off the gas in the second half, something I don't anticipate seeing out of Buffalo given it needs to turn in a complete 60-minute effort after suffering consecutive losses. Remember, back in Week 1 against Wagner, the Bulls jumped ahead 38-0 before halftime but still proceeded to add 31 more points in the game's final 30 minutes. Once Buffalo is able to build a lead in this one we can count on its ground game to salt the game away with a trio of running backs capable of going off. In fact, through three games, the Bulls have had three different players lead the team in rushing. QB Kyle Vantrease is more of a game manager than anything else but has shown the ability to go off through the air in the past and this is certainly a matchup where he can take advantage of an ODU secondary that was forced to make wholesale changes after canceling the 2020 season. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Kent State v. Maryland -14 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Kent State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with Maryland last week as the Terps won but failed to cover in a low-scoring Friday night game in Illinois. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Terps as they're well-positioned to win by margin against Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense. That high-octane offense has been great in MAC play in recent years, and certainly against FCS opponents. However, pit the Golden Flashes against teams from the Power Five conferences and they don't fare so well. Back in 2019 we saw Kent State score a combined 23 points in three road games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Of course, 2020 was a unique season that only featured MAC games for the Golden Flashes. So far this season we've seen Kent State put up 10 points at Texas A&M and seven points at Iowa - sandwiched around a 60-10 rout of FCS squad VMI. Maryland has the size, talent and experience on the defensive side of the football to effectively swallow up the Golden Flashes offense, which as I mentioned is predicated on playing fast and coming up with big plays from its shifty running backs and speedy wide receivers. Kent State's offensive line, while experienced, hasn't held up well at all through three games this season, allowing QB Dustin Crum to be sacked a whopping 10 times through three games. With Crum taking a beating, the Golden Flashes would probably be well-suited to 'punt' this one before opening their MAC schedule with a home game against Bowling Green next Saturday. Unlike the Terps, Kent State lacks the size up front on defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. Maryland's offense was held down against Illinois last week but it was more due to a lack of execution at key points of the game than anything else as the Terps converted just two-of-10 third down opportunities. QB Taulia Tagovailoa actually completed 32-of-43 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown in the three-point win. Unfortunately, the Terps coughed up a pair of fumbles which ultimately ended up being the different between a win and a win and ATS cover. Look for the Terps to bully the Kent State defensive line and open things up for their underrated ground attack in this one. Tagovailoa will have his moments as Maryland boasts a deep group of talented wide receivers, but I suspect Tayon Fleet-Davis may actually be the star of this game. If you're concerned about the back door being left open in this one, keep in mind Maryland led Howard (admittedly an FCS squad) 38-0 at halftime two weeks ago but continued to pour it on in the second half, scoring another 24 unanswered points. Backup QB Reece Udinski is capable, having gone 5-for-5 passing for 73 yards and a score in that rout. Take Maryland (9*). |
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09-25-21 | Ohio +14.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Ohio Bobcats in their rout at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette last Thursday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bobcats as they stay on the road to face Northwestern on Saturday. Consider Ohio's loss last week 'rock-bottom'. While it's been an awful 0-3 start to the season and the post-Frank Solich era, all is not lost. Everything is actually still in front of the Bobcats with a full MAC schedule set to begin next week. While the Week 2 loss to FCS squad Duquesne was ugly, the fact is Ohio wasn't really expected to win either of its other two games. With a strong performance on Saturday, the Bobcats can at the very least feel good about themselves entering the onset of conference play. Perhaps the best news for Ohio is that standout WR Isiah Cox is expected to make his season debut after missing the first three games due to disciplinary issues. I don't believe his absence sat well with the rest of the team, the offense in particular as they struggled to move the football through the first three weeks of the season. Cox immediately makes the offense more explosive, keeping in mind, the Bobcats already boast a tremendous 1-2 punch at the running back position in De'mondre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison. Defensively, the Bobcats are better than they've shown and here should benefit from having an couple of extra days of practice following last week's dubbing at the hands of a terrific Ragin' Cajuns offense. While they're stepping up in class on paper against a Big Ten opponent here, Northwestern certainly has its issues, on both sides of the football. The Wildcats head into this game sporting a 1-2 record with its lone victory coming against FCS squad Indiana State. In losses to Michigan State and Duke, the Wildcats were marched up and down the field on at will. On offense, the Wildcats have been going with a three-man rotation at quarterback, which only indicates one thing, they're not all that confident in any of the three. The reality is, the Wildcats season began circling the drain before it even got started when RB Cam Porter went down to a season-ending injury in August. Without a dominant ground attack, the Wildcats lack the ability to effectively shorten games, something Ohio will be looking to do here on Saturday. While most teams boast a ton of returning talent following a strange 2020 Covid-tinged season, Northwestern is one of the least experienced teams in the country. This one has the potential to be much closer than most are expecting. Take Ohio (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 43 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Something has to give in this one as the Panthers enter this game sporting an 0-2 o/u mark while the Texans have seen each of their first two contests go 'over' the total. I think a lot of bettors are quick to back the 'under' in this spot, simply due to the fact that the first six primetime games this season have all gone 'over' the total. That's akin to betting on 'black' because 'red' came up six straight times in roulette. I simply feel this total will prove too low. The Panthers defense has feasted through two games this season. Keep in mind, it has benefited from two very favorable matchups - both at home - first going up against an absolutely dreadful Jets offensive line and then facing a Saints team that was in a prime letdown spot off a 'smoke and mirrors' blowout win over the Packers. On paper, this looks like another favorable matchup with the Texans starting rookie third-round draft pick Davis Mills at quarterback. To be honest, I'm not sure he represents all that big of a drop-off from journeyman Tyrod Taylor. An accurate although sometimes overly optimistic passer in college (he's been turnover-prone), Mills was able to get his feet wet in arguably a tougher situation on the road in the second half against the Browns last Sunday, and managed to lead the Texans on one touchdown drive before nearly adding another in the closing minutes. All the Texans have done this season is exceed expectations, putting up 58 points through two games after many (myself included) had them billed as one of the weakest teams we've seen in years. It seems like the entire offense is playing with a chip on its shoulder, with a number of veteran players with a lot to prove including David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Brandin Cooks. Here, they're back home, catching the Panthers off an outright underdog home win - not exactly a favorable spot for visiting NFL teams if history tells us anything. With that being said, I do expect Carolina's offense to absolutely go off in this matchup. Sam Darnold has come out hot this season and with a wealth of burners at the wide receiver position, should be able to roast Houston's secondary. The Texans defense was already lacking talent, but now has to deal with a number of key injuries as well. Kamu Grugier-Hill, who led the team in tackles last week, is listed as questionable due to a knee injury and probably closer to doubtful with this being a short week. Meanwhile, Houston has one of the league's worst secondaries and will have to go without CB Terrance Mitchell and potentially safety Justin Reid as well due to injuries. While the Texans have wisely been playing deep in coverage in an effort to contain big plays through the air, they'll likely have to bump up in this one as they have to respect the ability of Panthers all-world RB Christian McCaffrey. It's a 'pick your poison' type of situation, especially given Houston's inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and I don't expect it to hold up well. What this play really comes down to is whether or not we believe that the Texans can keep the pressure on the favored Panthers for four quarters and I believe they can. We saw them orchestrate a fourth quarter touchdown drive while falling just short of another last week when they could have easily folded the tent trailing by double-digits against the Browns. While they're playing on a short week with a rookie quarterback there's really no reason to hold anything back given this will be their only primetime appearance this season. I've said it before and I'll say it again here, it takes a lot to cash an NFL 'under' these days. We'll ride the wave of 'over' results once again on Thursday night, noting that the Panthers have played to an average total of 52.1 points when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons while the Texans have posted a 6-0 o/u mark in their last six September games, good for an average total of 52.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 58.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring performances last week, albeit in very different circumstances. Marshall put up 38 points but inexplicably coughed up a fourth quarter lead in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State rolled to a 44-10 rout of FCS squad Elon. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers do battle in a rematch of last year's 17-7 Marshall victory. Marshall benefited from a number of East Carolina defensive breakdowns last week, something they're not likely to see against an absolutely loaded Appalachian State defense that is strong from the back-end in. While it was up against an inferior opponents in Elon, Appalachian State didn't allow a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter in last Saturday's game - when proceedings were already well in hand up 27-3. More impressively, two weeks ago the Mountaineers gave up a touchdown midway through the first quarter on the road against Miami, but then held the Hurricanes out of the end zone until early in the third quarter and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the game. How about against aforementioned East Carolina? Back in Week 1, Appalachian State allowed a touchdown five minutes into the game but not another until the score was 33-12 with just over two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. You get my point. With revenge on their minds, you can be sure the Mountaineers will be eager to erase the memory of last year's 17-7 loss to Marshall and once again keep the Thundering Herd offense under wraps. On the flip side, I don't believe Marshall is as bad defensively as it showed in last week's loss to ECU. As I've noted on more than one occasion on Twitter this fall, the Pirates are a team well-suited to playing from behind with a risk-taking QB in Holton Ahlers and a receiving corps that can stretch the field. The Thundering Herd got caught flat-footed in the fourth quarter of that game - plain and simple. Prior to that loss, Marshall had given up just two touchdowns through its first two games, with both of those coming in lopsided affairs. Like Appalachian State, Marshall is loaded on the defensive side of the football. The quick turnaround here affords it the opportunity to quickly erase the memory of that blown opportunity against ECU. The Mountaineers, while talented on offense, haven't proven to be all that explosive. Note that even against Elon last week, they took nearly 10 minutes to score their first points of the game. After that they didn't reach the end zone again until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Miami they scored a touchdown around 10 minutes into the game but then didn't produce another offensive touchdown (they did have a second quarter kick return touchdown) until less than six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. It's not as if they were up against an elite Miami defense either. Despite that, I'm confident we'll see Marshall make an effort to grind out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this game, noting that it has committed a whopping three turnovers in all three games so far this season. Against an opportunistic Appalachian State defense it can ill afford to cough the ball up and give the Mountaineers offense any free drives (or short field position). Last Thursday night we saw a wild, high-scoring affair between Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette (we won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that game) but I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers return home in a smash spot off last week's dismantling at the hands of the Saints. Green Bay's performance last week was as bad as it gets, particularly on the offensive side of the football. This is the perfect bounce back spot, however, as the Packers play their home-opener in primetime against a Lions defense that has the potential to be very bad this year. Detroit got throttled 41-33 by the 49ers in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated last Sunday (we got back-doored with the Niners in that game). What did we learn from that game? The Lions defense is by no means ready for primetime and now has to make do without arguably its best player in CB Jeff Okudah. Question his motivation and general interest in football at this point all you want, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should absolutely roast the Lions defense on Monday night. All of Green Bay's key skill position players on offense are poised for monster performances off last week's complete no-show. As WR DaVante Adams put it, last week's result was easy to toss in the trash. Forget it and move on. The real question is whether the Lions can do enough offensively to lift the final score 'over' the total. I believe they can. I think there's a false narrative out there that the Lions are going to be a 'ground and pound' offense with Dan Campbell at the helm. We saw in last week's game that Campbell won't hesitate to abandon the run should things go sideways and perhaps in watching Jared Goff carve up a capable 49ers defense in the fourth quarter he learned something about his offense. While the Lions have two capable running backs in DeAndre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams, I don't think they'll bang their heads against the wall running the football all night on Monday. Detroit knows it doesn't have the defense to turn this game into a slugfest. Instead, I look for the Lions to once again open things up on offense, leaning heavily on the likes of Swift (in the passing game) and TE T.J. Hockenson, who proved very useful against the Packers in two meetings last year, catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Last season we saw totals of 77. 63, 50, 66, 55 and 51 points when the Packers faced NFC North opponents. Also note that Green Bay averages over 35 points per game when coming off a game in which it allowed 30+ points over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 55.3 points. Off a loss of any kind of the last three seasons, the Packers next game has averaged a total of 52.4 points scored. It takes a lot for an NFL game to stay 'under' the total these days - in fact, we've yet to see a primetime game go 'under' this season ('over' is a perfect 5-0). While an 'under' result is certainly coming, I don't think it happens here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Vikings on the moneyline last week in Cincinnati but probably deserved a better fate as they were driving for the winning score in overtime before a costly turnover from RB Dalvin Cook. Noting that they've played consecutive road games four times in the last two seasons and didn't drop both of those games on any of those occasions, I look for them to bounce back here on Sunday in Arizona. The Cardinals couldn't have looked any better in last week's rout of the highly-touted Titans in Tennessee. Everything clicked for the Cards in that game but now they're in a much different situation, favored by more than a field goal back at home against an opponent that will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season. Minnesota certainly didn't play its best game against the Bengals last week but was still right there with a shot to win it in overtime. Yes, the Vikes have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the football, but I think we see the offense bounce back and at the very least keep pace with the Cards on Sunday. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns -12.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The fact that the Texans not only beat the Jaguars but completely annihilated them while the Browns gave up 30+ points in a blown opportunity on the road against the Chiefs is helping keep this line under a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. Let's keep Houston's Week 1 blowout win in perspective. The Texans jumped ahead early in that game and the questionably-coached Jags essentially threw their offensive gameplan out the window. It's not as if the Houston defense was dominant - in fact, it recorded just one sack and four QB hurries against rookie Trevor Lawrence, who was making his first NFL start and was bombing away playing from behind all afternoon long. Offensively, the Texans torched what we knew would be a bad Jags defense - we saw it throughout the preseason and it carried over into Week 1. Here, Houston will be up against an elite Browns defense. Forget the fact that Cleveland gave up 30+ points against the Chiefs - that was obviously an extremely difficult matchup. Here, we can expect the Browns 'D' to take its frustrations out on a Texans offense that boasts below-average talent at all of the skill positions. However, it's actually the Houston defense that I'm most concerned about in this one. We've seen the Browns evolve into a more aggressive offense compared to the early stages of last season. I mentioned the lack of pressure the Texans were able to put on Trevor Lawrence last week, with that in mind, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield should absolutely feast on Sunday while the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt takes care of the rest. The Browns run away and hide in this one. Take Cleveland (9*). |
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09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I have a lot of faith in the Bills coaching staff to come up with the right gameplan and for the players to execute that gameplan as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Miami this Sunday. Let's face it; Buffalo got out-coached and out-gameplanned in its opener against Pittsburgh. The Bills came out expecting the Steelers to play a certain way - particularly on defense where they're known for their blitz-happy nature - and instead they got thrown a screwball and ultimately were unable to prevail in a surprisingly low-scoring affair. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back matchup on paper - certainly not after the Dolphins 'upset' the Patriots in Foxboro last week - I think it's actually an ideal rebound spot for Buffalo. Bills QB Josh Allen is coming off a terrible performance against the Steelers last week - but again, that had more to do with Pittsburgh's improbable scheme than anything else. Here, Allen will be facing perhaps his favorite opponent in the Miami Dolphins. He's faced the Fins four times in the last two seasons, flaming them for nearly 1,000 passing yards (good for over nine yards per pass attempt), 12 touchdowns and just one interception. That's not to mention the fact he's run all over them for over 100 rushing yards and a score on just 17 attempts. Miami executed its own gameplan flawlessly against the Patriots last week. The problem is, this is an offense (and team) that's built for playing with a lead. Should they fall behind in this one, I don't have a lot of trust in QB Tua Tagovailoa or an average ground attack to lead them back, or even sneak in the backdoor. IT seems to me that a lot of bettors are backing the Dolphins thinking they're getting a 'gift' catching a field goal at home. I expect the Bills to put the Fins back in their place. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bears couldn't have looked much worse in last Sunday night's blowout loss against the Rams in Los Angeles. That was a brutal spot for the Bears and we took advantage, fading them in the first half. Highly-touted rookie QB Justin Fields' time is coming and perhaps sooner rather than later after he saw the field for a number of plays in last week's game. I do expect him to play a factor in this contest as the Bears look to give their home faithful some hope for the future. The Bengals were a popular fade last week but got some favorable bounces and ultimately prevailed over the Vikings in overtime. I don't believe they'll be so fortunate this week, however. Cincinnati still boasts a subpar defense, not the type of unit we trust to back in a hostile environment on the road. Note that the Bengals won only one road game all of last year, that coming against the hapless Texans in Week 16 (they did pick up a tie in Philadelphia in Week 3. The Bears didn't lose their second game last season until Week 7. Anything other than a victory on Sunday could only be seen as a massive disappointment in Chicago. There are so many areas the Bears can improve on off last week's awful performance - sometimes it's actually easier for a team to rally off a season-opening loss than it is to follow a win. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. One of our biggest plays last week was a fade of Kansas and it worked out perfectly as the Jayhawks were routed in a Friday night road game against Coastal Carolina. Things won't get any easier for Kansas here as it returns home to the site of an inexplicable field-storming from the fans following an ugly 17-14 win over FCS squad South Dakota two weeks ago, hosting the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has yet to earn much national attention but with another strong performance here, and perhaps next week at home against Iowa State, it will. The Bears are loaded on both sides of the football. Quarterback was a question mark heading into the season but I like what I've seen from Gerry Bohanon. He hasn't been asked to do too much but has settled in nicely as a game manager, completing 32-of-47 passes for just shy of 400 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. The Bears offense is all about the ground game and the do of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner has been electric with both rushing for 100+ yards in each of their first two games this season. Kansas lacks the bulk or talent up front to slow Baylor's dominant rushing attack. On the flip side, the Jayhawks offense has not surprisingly struggled. Dual-threat QB Jake Bean had a couple of nice plays against Coastal Carolina last week but both were with his legs. He's not much of a threat passing the ball and behind a leaky offensive line, he's been running for his life for much of the first two games - sacked six times already. The Bears defense has the experience and talent - strong from the secondary in - to make life miserable on Bean and his rag-tag supporting cast. With a ball-hawking secondary, I don't expect Baylor to leave the back door open in this one. Take Baylor (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's been a dream start for Virginia Tech as it opened with a stunning upset win over North Carolina and followed that up with an expected victory over Middle Tennessee State last week. I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Hokies to be that good this season - in fact, I still don't. I look for them to be handed their first loss of the season in Morgantown on Saturday. Last week's game against Middle Tennessee State was actually close at halftime with the Hokies leading 14-7. That narrow lead was only thanks to some inept play-calling from the Blue Raiders, not to mention some key penalties. I don't expect the Mountaineers to suffer from either of those things on Saturday. West Virginia got dropped from most bettors' radars after falling by a 30-24 score as a road favorite against Maryland. I'm higher on the Terps than most so I don't believe that narrow loss was all that devastating. The Mountaineers actually led that game heading into the fourth quarter, only a defensive breakdown on a long fourth quarter touchdown proved to be their downfall. In the perfect tune-up for this contest, West Virginia rolled to a 66-0 rout of LIU-Brooklyn last week. I liked the way the Mountaineers never took their foot off the gas in that victory, even pouring it on with four second half touchdowns after heading into halftime with a seemingly insurmountable 38-0 lead. With a tough road game against Oklahoma looming next week, West Virginia needs to put its best foot forward here and keep its season on track with a win. Meanwhile, even with a loss, everything the Hokies want to accomplish this season would still be ahead of them with each of their next four games coming in Blacksburg. Take West Virginia (9*). |
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09-18-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Buffalo UNDER 58 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday. Coastal Carolina is off to a roaring start to the season, having scored a whopping 101 points through two games - both victories. We won with the Chanticleers in last week's 49-22 rout of Kansas. I don't think they're going to put up 40+ points every week, however, and expect Buffalo to offer some resistance here. The Bulls are coming off a 28-3 drubbing on the road against Nebraska last week. They suffered three inexplicable defensive breakdowns, allowing a trio of long Huskers touchdowns in that contest while Nebraska's other TD came thanks to an interception that set it up at the Buffalo one-yard line. With all of that in mind, I expect a fairly conservative offensive gameplan from the Bulls here as they look to effectively shorten the game by leaning on standout RB Kevin Marks to help orchestrate long, clock-churning drives on offense. As for Coastal Carolina, it got caught being a little too aggressive on defense and allowed a pair of long touchdown runs to Kansas QB Jake Bean last week. It won't have to deal with a dual threat quarterback in Buffalo's Kyle VanTrease this week. He has run the ball just twice through two games. VanTrease is more of a game manager than anything else - the Bulls certainly don't want him attempting 50 passes again like he did last week (that had to do with the fact that the Bulls were down big in the second half). Note that one of Buffalo's top receivers, Jovany Ruiz, has been ruled out for this game. He had caught seven passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown this season before leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury. Take the under (8*). |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati -170 v. Indiana | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati moneyline over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. The importance of this game for both teams can't be understated. Cincinnati came into the season with CFP aspirations and everything is certainly still in front of it after back-to-back blowout wins to open the campaign. This game opens a very difficult two-game stretch that could certainly make or break the Bearcats this season as they'll head to South Bend to face Notre Dame next. The stage certainly isn't too big for Cincinnati. Remember, the Bearcats faced Georgia in what was essentially a road game (albeit in front of just 15,000 fans due to Covid protocols) in the Peach Bowl last season and had control of that contest until the Bulldogs rallied to steal the victory late. Cincinnati is absolutely loaded on both sides of the football. To that point, so is Indiana. The Hoosiers opened the season with a blowout loss on the road against Iowa. That makes getting a win here paramount as it can ill afford to drop another spotlight non-conference game. Indiana caught lightning in a bottle last season, winning six of eight regular season games before falling to Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The Hoosiers lost QB Michael Penix Jr. to a devastating season-ending injury last year. He's back this season but there are still questions whether he's all the way back. Now he faces a fierce Bearcats defense that really has no true weakness. I expect the Hoosiers to be playing from behind at some point in this game, which will force them to open things up and take some shots downfield. That's where I look for the Bearcats secondary to turn the lights out. Cincinnati is going to relish the opportunity to silence a packed house at Memorial Stadium. Keep in mind, the Bearcats are an incredible 33-6 since the start of the 2018 season. This is arguably Luke Fickell's best team since he took over the program and I don't expect to see their CFP dreams get dashed in Bloomington on Saturday. Take Cincinnati moneyline (7*). |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*). |
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09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 9 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded Illinois last week in its lopsided loss on the road against Virginia. While it has the benefit of returning home for a primetime game this week, and the opportunity to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, I look for it to fall short once again. For Maryland, this will be its first conference game of the season after opening with wins over West Virginia and FCS squad Howard. The Terps couldn't have looked much more impressive in those two victories and I really liked what I saw from them in what was admittedly a layup against Howard last week. The Terps poured it on from the opening kick in that one, cruising to a 62-0 rout - a perfect tune-up before playing on a short week here in Champaign. As I noted in last week's analysis of my play against Illinois, it's going to take some time for new head coach Bret Bielema to turn around the program. Most of the key pieces are holdovers from a truly awful Lovie Smith era of Illini football. While Illinois is expected to get QB Brandon Peters back on the field this week, it will still be without RB Mike Epstein. This is a tough matchup against a Terps defense that is loaded in the secondary after going with a bit of a youth movement a year ago. Maryland recorded just two interceptions in five games last season but has already picked off three passes in just two games this year. Offensively, the Terps are rolling and figure to shred a weak Illini defense that just couldn't come up with any key stops against an average Virginia offense last Saturday. Illinois allowed Virginia to score touchdowns on each of its first two drives and the Cavs would have made it three straight scoring drives to open the game were it not for a missed field goal. After scoring a touchdown to close the gap on their first drive of the second half, the Illini defense gave it right back up, and then some, allowing Virginia to march down the field on two consecutive touchdown drives to put the game out of reach. The strength of the Illinois defense is up front but that doesn't bode all that well against a rejuvenated Terps offense that has shown the ability to blow the top off of opposing secondaries, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for well over 600 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Take Maryland (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is a very low total by today's NFL standards but I'm not sure it's been set low enough given the state of both of these offenses, not to mention the familiarity between the two teams and the fact they'll be playing on a short week. We saw three extremely high-scoring primetime games in Week 1 but that was to be expected given the matchups. Here, we should see a much different brand of football on display to kick off Week 2. The Giants offense is just a week into the season and it already looks downright scary - not in a good way. There was nothing creative or explosive about the G-Men offense against Denver and while that was to be expected given the strength of the Broncos lies on the defensive side of the football, this isn't much easier of a matchup for New York, if at all. With major o-line issues there's simply very little time for plays to develop before QB Daniel Jones' pocket collapses, leading to lots of short dump-off passes. RB Saquon Barkley clearly isn't all the way back from last year's devastating injury, although I do expect him to play a larger role in this week's offensive gameplan after getting only 11 touches in last Sunday's loss. Given Washington's vaunted pass rush, we can expect G-Men offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to develop a fairly conservative gameplan for Jones and the offense here, simply looking to take care of the football and sustain some drives to effectively shorten the game. Washington's offensive prospects don't look a whole lot better than New York's with QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke won't take nearly as many chances as Fitz and this is a sneaky-tough matchup against a quality Giants secondary anyway. Washington RB Antonio Gibson is one of its biggest home run threats, along with WR Terry McLaurin, but there's still questions as to whether Gibson can take care of the football after he coughed up a pair of fumbles last week. Regardless, the Football Team should focus on churning out long, ground-oriented, clock-eating drives when on offense in this one as the Giants biggest vulnerability lies in its run defense. Take the under (10*). |