Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-16-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10* Phillies RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) After dropping three straight, including the first game of this series, we like the Phillies to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire, meaning that the runline option is the savvy call for sure here as far as making a play on the side. We don't trust the Jays to pull off the sweep. We think these starters are very evenly matched, with Philly going with Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.49 ERA), and the Jays countering with Kevin Gausman (9-6, 3.04.) Philadelphia comes in desperate to snap the three-game slide, and while we do believe the outright win is possible, the runline option at this price is the correct call in our opinion; the play is Philadelphia on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers -159 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
8* Rangers (BLOOD-BATH) We don't expect any upsets here today in Texas. There sure wasn't yesterday in the Rangers' 12-0 victory. "They're all doing something to help contribute," Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said after yesterday's blowout victory. "They're all involved. If you look at the bench, they're all getting playing time right now, so it's good to have depth." Lucas Giolito (7-8, 4.37 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's been pretty inconsistent since coming over from the ChiSox. He'll be opposed by Jordan Montgomery (7-10, 3.38), who is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts for his new team. This line could/should be a lot larger in our opinion, so lay the price with confidence; the play is TEXAS! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-14-23 | Yankees v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
10* Braves runline (BLOOD-BATH) The Yanks are just 60-58, including only 25-30 on the road and I believe that New York will not only lose this game, but it'll lost in blowout fashion. ATL is 75-42 overall, including 37-20 at home. NY just lost two of three to the Marlins over the weekend, including a late collapse in last night's 8-7 setback. With the thought of that crushing defeat fresh on the front of their collective mind, I say NY is ripe for the picking here. And I expect ATL to have no mercy. The Braves took three of four from the Mets, but dropped yesterday's contest by a score of 7-6. Clarke Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA) gets the call for the Yanks, while Max Fried (3-1, 2.50) counters for the Braves. We give Fried the big nod here in this matchup; lay the 1.5 runs on Atlanta! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-13-23 | Rangers v. Giants -132 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
10* Giants (IL GOW) After four straight losses, including the first two games in this series, we like the Giants to bounce back and deliver here in the finale of this three game set (note that SF is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent.) Texas has been great, but we expect it to get caught "looking ahead" to its upcoming home series with the Angels next. Two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here, as Dane Dunning is 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA for the visitors, while Logan Webb is battle-tested at 9-9 witha 3.38 ERA for the home side. The revenge-factor and urgency in which the home side plays with today turn out to be the difference-makers; lay the price, the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-12-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -129 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* Diamondbacks (BLOOD-BATH) We think Arizona will end its nine-game slide. The D-Backs may not be in the postseason, but they won't lose every game from now until the end of the season. The streak of futility ends here and now. Rich Hill (0-1, 18.00 ERA) can't be relied upon from one start to the next, and we feel he's completely overmatched on the road here in this starting pitching matchup throwing opposite D-Backs "ace" Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.37) who is 9-1 with a 1.97 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season; this line could/should in fact be a lot larger, so the value swings to Arizona! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-11-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Padres/D-Backs OVER (ASSASSIN) This is a great situational play. These division foes' wildcard hopes continue to dwindle by each passing day. San Diego enters having lost five of its last six and four in a row, while Arizona comes into this series having dropped eight in a row. Arizona's fall from grace over the second half has been spectacular to say the least. Either way, these are two overhyped teams for sure. They've each played to several lower-scoring games. Arizona has played to three straight "unders," but note that the D-Backs have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Blake Snell is 8-8 with a 2.61 ERA for the Padres, but Ryne Nelson is just 6-6 with a 5.16 ERA for the D-Backs. Snell is just in the wrong place, at the wrong time today, as all signs point to this total flying well "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-10-23 | Blue Jays v. Guardians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER Jays/Guardians. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're now finally expecting those trends to end this afternoon in what sets up to be an explosive offensive affair. The Jays are now 35-27 on the road after their 1-0 win here yeterday. They are 2-1 in this 4-game series, all three games have gone "under" the number, but note that Toronto has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The bottom line though more than anything is we don't trust either starting pitcher lasting very long, with the Jays going with the erratic Alek Manoah (3-8, 5.72 ERA), and the home side countering with Noah Syndergaard (1-4, 7.16.) All signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-09-23 | Astros v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* UNDER Astros/Orioles (AL TOM) The Astros came from behind to knock off the Orioles by a score of 7-6 last night, and while that total flew well "over" the number, we're expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday night. The visitors go with Christian Javier (7-2, 4.39 ERA), while the home side counters with Jack Flaherty (1-0, 1.50.) The Orioles have in fact seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Look for these savvy vets to "steal the show," and grab the "under" in this one! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-09-23 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
10* OVER Marlins/Reds (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting some offensive fireworks here on Wednesday afternoon. The Marlins have seen the total go "under" in three straight after last night's 3-2 victory, and note that Miami has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The Reds have now lost seven of their last eight after yesterday's setback, and they've seen the total go "under" in six straight. Two confirmed "gas cans" go head-to-head" here though, with Cueto (0-3, 5.32 ERA) going for the Fish, and Ashcraft (6-7, 5.18) countering for the home side. Ashcraft is actually way worse at home this year as well; look for this total to fly well OVER the number before it's all said and done. AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-08-23 | Astros -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* Astros RUNLINE (TOP VALUE) A big time matchup between AL leading teams. This is a big time starting pitching mismatch working in favor of the Astros though, and we believe Houston will not only win this opening game, but will do so in blowout fashion. And that makes the runline option the savvy call here. Baltimore has been great this year, but we still feel that when faced with the elite teams in the league, the Orioles will struggle. Especially their starting pitching. This is a mismatch on the mound. The Astros go with Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), while the visitors counter with Grayson Rodriguez (2-3, 6.09, 1.50.) Expect Houston to send an early message here with a resounding victory; grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* UNDER Dodgers/Padres. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair here on Monday in the fourth game of this series. LA has now seen the total go "over" the number in six straight after last night's 8-2 victory, while SD has seen the total go "over" in the first three games of this series (which is in fact significant to note, as the Padres have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row at home. We have two really decent starters going head to head, with Tony Gonsolin (6-4, 4.11 ERA) getting the nod for the Dodgers and Seth Lugo (4-5, 3.54) countering for the Friars. All signs point to a classic "duel," finally in the finale; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres +1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -146 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10* Padres runline (NL WEST GOM) We like the Padres to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the spread option. After droppping the opener 10-5, the Padres bounced back with an 8-3 victory last night. THis is the third game of a four-game series. Both starters are making debuts for their new teams, but we give the advantage to veteran Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA) here at home. He'll face off against the volatile Lance Lynn (7-9, 6.32.) Look for the home-field advantage to be the difference-maker here, and while clearly the outright is possible, we feel more comfortable laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is San Diego on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-05-23 | Mets v. Orioles -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* Orioles (IL GOM) The Mets were sellers at the trade deadline, getting rid of both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. They're lacking identity and have lost four straight and five of their last six, including losing five straight on the road as well. Baltimore has the best record in the AL and we expect it to dominate here on Saturday in this lop-sided starting pitching matchup. The visitors go with Tyler Megill (6-4, 5.17 ERA), who has been called up from the minors to make this start. He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson (10-6, 4.53), who is 2-0 in his past five starts, working into at least the sixth inning in all six of his July starts; lay the price with confidence, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Twins -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Twins (DESTRUCTION) Arizona continues to slide. The D-Backs just lost three of four at San Fran over the weekend and we think they're ripe for the picking here for Minnesota. The Twins snapped a 5-game losing streak by taking two of three at St. Louis over the weekend and we expect them to build off that interleague series victory with another one here at home vs. this floundering visiting side. Two really good starters here going H2H, as AZ goes with Merrill Kelly (9-5, 3.23 ERA), while the home side counters with Bailey Ober (6-5, 3.19.) Great line value here ultimatley, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -150 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Red Sox (ASSASSIN) Toronto went 16-3 vs. the Red Sox last year, but Boston is 7-0 so far in the season series in 2023. The Jays'll get off the schneid at some point, but not in this matchup. Toronto goes with the volatile Alek Manoah (2-8, 5.87 ERA), while the home side counters with James Paxton (6-2, 3.34.) This line could/should in fact be much larger in our estimation, so that swings the value in favor of Boston! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-02-23 | Rays v. Yankees +101 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 101 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
10* Yankees (AL EAST GOM) After dropping the first two games of this series, we like the Yanks to bounce back in the finale. New York has now lost 3 straight, but note that it's 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 8-3 in its last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Shane McClanahan (11-1, 3.00 ERA), has struggled big over his last five games, without a decision while posting a 6.45 ERA. Gerritt Cole (9-2, 2.64) here at home in this important contest and at this price is the correct call; lay the price, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
8* Orioles RUNLINE (CHOKE-OUT) This is an important divisional series, and the Orioles drew "first blood" last night, winning by a score of 4-2. Toronto can't lose games to the division leader and expect to make the playoffs. The Orioles can continue to stick the dagger into the Jays' dwindling hopes. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Kyle Bradish (6-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) has been a consistent bright spot for the Orioles all year. He's battle-tested. Hyun-Jin Ryu though is making his season debut for the Jays. He's being thrown to the wolves here in his first start. The outright is possible, but we feel more comfortable taking the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Brewers -148 v. Nationals | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (DESTRUCTION) A common sense play here more than anything. Milwaukee has now lost four straight after yesterday's 5-3 series-opening loss. The Brewers are now 57-50 and second in the NL Central. We expect Freddy Peralta (6-8, 4.46 ERA) to be on top of his game here and to get the better of his counterpart Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.27.) We're banking on the Brewers in finding a way to deliver here in this revenge bounce-back spot; lay the price the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-31-23 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* UNDER Rays/Yanks. We have an important divisional matchup here, but it's one that's going to be dominated by the men on the mound in our opinion. Tampa Bay is 64-44 overall, but just 27-25 on the road. New York is only 55-50 overall, but it's 32-24 at home. Tampa went 2-1 at Houston over the weekend, with the last two games flying "over" the number. New York lost two of three to Baltimore here at home over the weekend, and the final two also eclipsed the posted number as far as the total is concerned. But everything points to a "duel" here with the Rays' Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.36 ERA) facing off against the Yanks' Domingo German (5-7, 4.77.) This should have a "playoff-like" atmosphere about it, and everything points to runs being at a premium in the opener; the play is indeed on the under! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-30-23 | Rangers +1.5 v. Padres | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
8* Rangers runline (MISMATCH) After dropping the first two games of this series, and with nealry 70% of the public money on the home side, we're expecting the Rangers to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance here with the Rangers. Cody Bradford is 2-1 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for Texas. He owns a sharp 32 to 8 strike-out-to-walk-ratio as well. The Padres counter with Blake Snell, who is 7-8 with a 2.61 ERA. We just see Bradford matching Snell inning for inning, and in a contest like that we like the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-30-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
10* OVER Mariners/Diamondbacks. The first two games of this series have gone "under" the number, but all signs point to a more high-scoring affair here on Sunday in our opinion. This is just a case of both Luis Castillo (6-7, 3.02 ERA) of the Mariners and Merril Kelly (9-4, 3.12) f the D-Backs being in the "wrong place," at the "wrong time!" The overall situaation points to this one flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-29-23 | Rangers +1.5 v. Padres | 0-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
8* Rangers runline (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) We like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday after falling 7-1 to the Padres in yesterday's series opener. The Padres have been inconsistent all year and we don't trust Yu Darvish (7-7, 4.80 ERA) at all. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez (8-3, 4.91), who we feel is the correct call for sure. The Rangers have responded well in this spot for bettors and while we do think the outright is possible, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-29-23 | Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 1-6 | Loss | -182 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
8* Angels RUNLINE (SPECIAL) LA had won 8 of 9 before last night's 4-1 series opening loss here. The Angels are 3-1 in their last four after a loss. We think they'll respond here vs. the Jay's "weak link" in Alek Manoah (2-8, 6.10 ERA), who has been a major disappointment. He'll be opposed by Reid Detmers (2-7, 4.38), who we feel is the correct call in this bounce-back spot. That said, lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs; the play is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-28-23 | Rangers v. Padres -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10* Padres (ASSASSIN) Dane Dunning (8-3, 3.18 ERA) gets the start for the Rangers in this one, but note that he's just 1-2 with a poor 4.98 ERA in four July starts so far. Joe Musgrove (9-3, 3.25) counters for the home side. He's 5-1 with a 3.40 ERA in eight starts at Petco this year, and despite a 2-3 record vs. the Rangers lifetime, he does spot the sharp 3.62 ERA over that span (eight appearances.) Look for home field advantage to play a part here as well; lay the price with confidence, the play is San Diego! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-27-23 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Angels/Tigers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting more of a "duel" here after the Angels 7-6 win in yesterday's series opener. More than anything though, we really like these starting pitchers and we're predicting a classic "duel" early here in Detroit. The visitors go with ace Shohei Ohtani (8-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), while the home side counters with the under-rated Michael Lorenzen (5-6, 3.49, 1.09 WHIP.) Expect these two to battle deep and for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done. AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-26-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers UNDER 10 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
10* UNDER Jays/Dodgers. The first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, but we're finally expecting a bit of a "duel" here in the finale. The Jays won the opener by a score of 6-3, before the Dodgers bounced back in yesterday's come-from-behind 8-7 victory. These teams are a couple of the heaviest hitting clubs in the league, but they also have some of the best starting pitching and bullpens. This is a great starting pitching matchup, and after the first two games have plated a lot of runs, we're anticipating a classic "duel" here on Wednesday in LA, as Toronto goes with Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), while the Dodgers go with Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.94, 1.08.) Look for these two competent starters to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-26-23 | Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Mariners/Twins (DUEL) Seattle rallied for a 9-7 win last night, after falling 4-3 in the series opener. These two teams are in the playoff hunt, and we're expecting the finale to be more like the first game, as we have two really good starting pitchers squaring off, and all signs point to a classic "duel," as Seattle hands the ball to Bryce Miller (6-3, 3.50 ERA), 0.97 WHIP), while Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan (9-6, 3.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP.) Finally, note that the Twins have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four as well in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-25-23 | Orioles v. Phillies -118 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BLOCKBUSTER) We're expecting Philadelphia to bounce back here after yesterday's 3-2 series-opening defeat. Note that the Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. It's unreal the run the Orioles are on, but regression is imminent at some point, and for us, tonight's the night! The Phillies are third in the NL East and need to make their move. They've responded well in this spot for bettors, and at this price at home with Taijuan Walker on the hill, we're getting great value. Walker is 11-4 with a 4.11 ERA, while his counterpart Kyle Gibson is 9-6 with a pedestrian 4.76 ERA; lay the price, the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-24-23 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
8* Jays RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Jays went 1-1 in Seattle over the weekend, and are coming off the 4-3 win last night. We think the visitors can keep the momentum rolling here in LA. The Dodgers just went 2-1 at the Rangers, but are coming off an 8-4 loss yesterday. The bottom line with this one though is that this is a starting pitching matchup that definitely favors Toronto. The Jays turn to Jose Berrios (8-7, 3.39 ERA), while the home side counters with the volatile Michael Grove (2-2, 6.40), who remains in a starters role out of neccessity. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the price with confidence for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Toronto on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-23-23 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -129 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10* Mariners (ASSASSIN) Seattle has come from behind to take the first two games of this series by scores of 3-2 and 9-8, but we don't think it'll have to today facing the Jays' erratic starter Alek Manoah, who enters at a shaky 2-8 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. With a game at the Dodgers starting tomorrow, the visitors also get caught "looking ahead." Brayan Woo is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP for the Mariners, and we're giving him the nod here in this matchup, based solely on the "home field" advantage. With a lengthy road trip up next for the Mariners, look for them to complete the sweep; lay the short price, the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-22-23 | Giants -185 v. Nationals | 1-10 | Loss | -185 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
8* Giants (PITCHING DESTRUCTION) After yesterday's 5-3 upsets loss here in the Nation's capital, we like the visiting side to bounce back in fine fashion here on Saturday. This is a pitching mismatch. Logan Webb (8-7, 3.11 ERA) gets the nod over his counterpart Josiah Gray (6-8, 3.59) from the Nationals. San Fran though has responded well in this spot for bettors of late though, going a near-perfect 5-1 in its last six in trying to avenge an upset road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. San Francisco can't waste these types of opportunities, and all signs point to a quick bounce-back; lay the price, the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-21-23 | White Sox v. Twins -147 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
8* Twins (BLOWOUT SPECIAL) They say that divisional battles are always the most important, and that the almost always "mean more" to the home side. That's the case here in this series in our opinion, as this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The Twins lead the AL Central at 50-48 (26-22 at home), while the White Sox are in fourth at 41-57 (20-32 on the road.) Minnesota just took two of three at Seattle, but is off the 5-0 loss last night. That works in our favor though, as the Twins are 4-1 in their last five off a shutout road loss. The starting pitching matchup is also big time working in favor of the home side, as Chicago goes with the volatile Lance Lynn (6-8, 6.06 ERA), while the home side counters with Joe Ryan (8-6, 3.77.) For all the reasons listed above, we consider this to be the very definition of "great line value;" lay the price with confidence, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-21-23 | Dodgers +104 v. Rangers | Top | 11-5 | Win | 104 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (BLOCKBUSTER) The Rangers have come out of the break and won six straight, but LA is 4-2 since the Midsummer Classic, and we think the correct call is on the visitors here. Two really good teams, but this is a starting pitching matchup favoring LA in our opinion. The visitors go with Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.72 ERA), while the hme side counters with Andrew Heaney (6-6, 4.43.) Gonsolin owns a 1.09 WHIP though, while Heaney's is 1.34. Look for LA to make a statement here in Texas, as Gonsolin easily outduels his inconsistent counterpart; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-20-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER Twins/Mariners (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we anticipate those trends ending here this evening. Minnesota has now seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight, including in the first three of this series here in Seattle (Twins are 2-1 so far.) Note though that the Twins have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. And note that Seattle has seen the total go "under" in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Two really good starting pitchers sqaure off here as well, and everything points to a classic "duel," as Minnesota hands the ball to Pablo Lopez (5-5, 4.24 ERA), and the home side counters with George Kirby (8-8, 3.43); the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-19-23 | Padres v. Blue Jays -113 | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
8* Jays (SPECIAL) The Jays had won four of five and eight of nine before yesterday's 9-1 series opening loss here to the Padres. Note though that Toronto is 7-2 in its last hine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. SD is still just 20-27 on the road, while the Jays are still 26-19 at home. Toronto has the upper-hand in the starting pitching matchup, and in the end that'll prove to be the difference-maker. SD goes with Yu Darvish (6-6, 4.65 ERA), while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.41.) All signs point to Toronto bouncing back in fine fashion and we're getting a really great price here; the play is the Jays! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-19-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
10* Orioles runline (ASSASSIN) Both teams came into the second half on big runs, but it's been the Dodgers who have taken the first two games of this series, including yesterday's contest by a score of 10-3. Note though that the Orioles are still 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. With a tough series at Texas up next, we expect the visiting side to finally get caught looking ahead. These starters are evenly matched, as the Dodgers go with Julio Urias (7-5, 4.35 ERA), while the home side counters with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.59), but the situational and trend based-factors working in Baltimores favor do indeed make the home side the correct call. But we're laying the short price, and grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-18-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles -118 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Orioles (IL GOM) Both teams came into the second half hot, but LA was the one that drew first blood in this series in yesterday's 6-4 victory. Now the Orioles look for revenge, as note that Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line here though is that this is one that definitely favors the home side as far as the starting pitching matchup, and when you look at the talent discrepancy between these guys, and then look at the revenge angle, combined with this super affordable price, all of these factors combine to make the Orioles are No. 1 IL play of the month (Michael Grove is 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA for the Dodgers, while Tyler Well is 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA for the Orioles.) Lay the short price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-17-23 | Yankees v. Angels -115 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
8* Angels (BLOCKBUSTER) Both teams are in need of wins if they're going to make a serious run at the playoffs. New York lost two of three at Colorado over the weekend, and we think it'll struggle again here in this difficult road venue and with confirmed "gas can" Luis Severino scheduled to start. The Angels are likely going to be "sellers" again here shortly, but they haven't completely thrown in the white towel yet. Severino is just 1-4 with a 7.38 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He's been terrible on the road, which is good news for Griffin Canning, a steady bright-spot for LA, entering 6-4 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP; lay the short price, the play is the Angels! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-17-23 | Rays -113 v. Rangers | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
8* Rays (SPECIAL) Two really good teams, two really good pitchers. That said, we still feel that Shane McClanhan has the advantage over Dane Dunning tonight. Tampa came out of the break and won two of three at KC. It lost 8-4 yesterday, which is important for us to to note here though, as the Rays are 4-1 in their last five off an upset loss as a road favorite. Texas took three straight here from Cleveland over the weekend, but as mentioned above, the difference for us today comes on the mound. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, while Dunning is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the Rangers. Look for Tampa to find a way to deliver here; the play is the Rays! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-16-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
10* UNDER Red Sox/Cubs (ASSASSIN) Chicago has now seen the total go "over" in four straight ater yesterday's 10-4 win. The Red Sox won the opener by a score of 8-3 and Boston has now seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four. But everything points to more of a defensive duel here on Sunday between two really good starting pitchers. The Red Sox turn to Kutter Crawford (3-4, 4.11 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), while the home side counters with the red hot Justin Steele (9-2, 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP.) We've seen a lot of offense from each team of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this Sunday total a little too high now in our opinion. And so that's the play, the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-15-23 | Brewers +106 v. Reds | Top | 3-0 | Win | 106 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Brewers (TOP DOG) My NL GOW was on the Brewers last night, and I think that Freddy Peralta and the visiting side can build off that win. Milwaukee went into the break by winning two of three at home over the Reds. There were a few surprise teams in the first half, and Cincinnati was one of them. Regression seems imminent over the second half for Cincinnati though, and same with its starting pitcher today Andrew Abbot, who is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Peralta is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA so far. But look for the veteran to improve here over the second half and for the Brewers to take command of this division, sending a message here to the Reds that they are once again the proverbial doormat. Grab the plus money here, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-14-23 | Dodgers v. Mets +112 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
8* Mets (DESTRUCTION) As good as Julio Urias CAN be, and as good as the LA Dodgers are overall, we still think, at this price, that Justin Verlander and the Mets are the correct call here. Urias is 6-5 with a 4.76 ERA, while Verlander is 3-4 with a 3.60 ERA. LA won't finish with as good a record as it did last year, but it's once again set up to make the playoffs. New York though is 7 games behind San Fran, and it's essentially "now or never" as far as their season is concerned. Urias is 0-0 with a 5.02 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Mets, while Verlander is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA lifetime vs. the Dodgers; we're grabbing the undervalued hungry home side, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-14-23 | Brewers -114 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Brewers (NL GOW) Milwaukee took two of three from the Reds before the break, and at this price, we think they're going to take the opener here as well as we turn the calendar to the second half of the MLB season. This is just a plain ol simple mismatch on the mound. Corbin Burnes is battle-tested at 7-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the visiting side. Graham Ashcraft has struggled with consistency for the Reds though, entering the second half with a sub-par 4-6, 6.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP record. Look for Burnes to outduel his erratic counterpart and lay this price with confidence; the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-09-23 | Orioles v. Twins -148 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
10* Twins (ASSASSIN) After dropping the first two games of this series, we fully expect the Twins to bounce back in the finale. The Orioles have now won four straight, but with the All Star break up this week, we're finally expecting them to get caught looking ahead and come in complacent here. Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Kyle Gibson (8-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) has been decent for Baltimore, but we're still giving the big nod to Joe Ryan (8-5, 3.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), especially here at home. Lay the price with confidence, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-08-23 | Braves v. Rays +131 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* Rays (ASSASSIN) Enough is enough! Tampa has now lost six straight after dropping the opener here to the Braves by a score of 2-1 yesterday. Despite that though, note that TB is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Rays are still also 9-5 in their last 14 after five or more straight losses in a row. Spencer Strider is 10-2 with a 3.66 ERA for the Braves, while Taj Bradley is 5-4 with a 5.27 ERA for the Rays. Strider's numbers are better, but Bradley at home here is the correct call in our opinion, considering how desperate TB overall is right now. Winning leads to complacency, and we're expecting ATL to finally take a collective step back this afternoon; lay the price, th eplay is Tampa Bay! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-07-23 | Braves v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10* Rays (IL GOW) Two really good teams, but one enters much "hungrier" than the other. The Rays look to bounce back here after an uncharacteristic five straight losses in a row (note though that TB is 7-2 in its last nine after five or more straight losses in a row.) ATL is rolling, it enters off a 2-1 showing at Cleveland. These starters are evenly matched, as the Braves hand the ball to Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA), while the home side counters with Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50.) These guys are a "wash," but at this price and considering the circumstances, the sharp move for sure is to grab the home side and indeed expect a big bounce-back effort here after the five-game slide; lay the short price, the play is Tampa Bay! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-06-23 | Orioles -115 v. Yankees | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
10* Orioles (ASSASSIN) Baltimore lost the first two games of this series, but it bounced back with a 6-3 victory yesterday and we're expecting a similar outcome here as well. The botto line here is that this is a starting pitching matchup that favors Baltimore and that's going to be more than enough to tip the scales in its favor today. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 4-4 with a 3.58 ERA, while the home side counters with Luis Severino, who is just 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA. Great value on the superior starter; the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-05-23 | Mariners v. Giants -148 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
8* Giants (MISMATCH) We like San Francisco to finally bounce back here after four straight losses, including the first two in this series (note that San Fran is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent.) It's a bullpen game for the Mariners, meaing that Alex Cobb (5-3, 3.12 ERA), has a big advantage here. And those two big factors working in favor of the home side is more than enough to tip the scales in their direction and it makes it so that we have no issues at all in laying what we still feel is a very reasonable mid-aized price; the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-05-23 | Orioles -117 v. Yankees | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Orioles (AL EAST GOW) After opening this series with two straight losses, we like the Orioles to bounce back here in the third game of this four-game series (note that Baltimore is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge back-to-back road losses against an opponent.) We just love this starting pitching matchup for Baltimore more than anything, as it hands the ball to Deam Kremer, who is a battle-tested 8-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He definitely gets the nod over Randy Vasquez (1-1, 1.74 ERA), who makes his third career start here afte rgetting called up from Triple-A on Wednesday. We look for the Orioles to get back on track at the plate in this favorable matchup; lay the short price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-04-23 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* White Sox runline (ASSASSIN) Toronto shouldn't be favored here just because it's win/loss record is better overall. The Jays are just 22-22 on the road as well. They come in with zero momentum after getting swept at home by the Red Sox. The White Sox lost two of three at Oakland over the weekend, but they bounced back with an 8-7 win in the finale. Chris Bassitt is 8-5 with a 4.06 ERA for Toronto, while Lucas Giolito is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA for the White Sox. Giolito gets the slight nod here and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, the play is indeed on Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-04-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins -1.5 | 2-15 | Win | 122 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
8* Marlins runline (SPECIAL) No need to overanlayze this one. St. Louis is terrible this year, just 35-49 overall, including only 18-24 on the road. Miami is decent this season, 49-37 overall, including 26-16 at home. We think the Fish will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. The bottom line is that this is a complete starting pitching mismatch: the Cards go with Adam Wainwright (3-3, 7.45 ERA), while the home side counters with Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 3.53.) Lay the 1.5 runs for the return; the play is Miami on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Braves FIRST FIVE INNINGS (ASSASSIN) The Braves are ridiculously hot, and we foresee that surge lasting into the All Star break, which is just around the corner. ATL has won 16 of its last 17 games and is going for a ninth straight win here. Instead of playing the entire game though for this selection, I'm banking on Braves' starter Bryce Elder to win the first five innings. He's 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA overall and 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland returns home off a 4-2 road trip, but the Guardians are overmatched on the mound tonight by handing the ball to Gavin Williams, who is 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA. His third major league start is obviously a difficult one. If you can't get the Braves FIRST FIVE innings, we also love for the entire Game. So either way, ATL for first five, or for the entire game to win outright here; the play is indeed on the Braves! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-03-23 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | 12-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER Astros/Rangers (SLUG-FEST) These teams have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but we're definitely expecting that to change quick fast and hurry this afternoon. The total has gone "under" in the first three games of this four game series. So far Houston is 2-1. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. These starters have been great, but regression is imminent in our opinion. The visitors go with Christian Javier, who is 7-1 with a 3.72 ERA, while the home side counters with Martin Perez, who is 7-3 with a 4.28 ERA. This is just a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Everything points to an explosive finish to this four-game series; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-02-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10* OVER D-Backs/Angels (ASSASSIN) Two really good starters going head-to-head here, but we're still predicting this one to become a classic "slug-fest." Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in four straight now after taking the first two games of this three-game series. That includes yesterday's 3-1 victory. Note though that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. As mentioned, nothing but respect here for both starters, as Zac Gallen is 10-2 with a 3.02 ERA for Arizaon, while Reid Detmers is 1-5 with a 3.77 ERA for the Angels. This is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." This number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
8* Jays runline (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After back-to-back losses to open this series, including on Canada Day on Saturday, we're expecting the Jays to dig deep and not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. And that then makes the "runline" option the savvy move, laying the 1.5 runs for the "near pick em" price. Note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Two good starters, but we'll give the nod to the Jays' ace at home here. Boston goes with Garrett Whitlock, who is 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA, while Toronto goes with Kevin Gausman, who is 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA. Lay the 1.5 runs, the play is Toronto on the runline. AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Mariners runline (SPECIAL) After three straight losses, including a humbling 15-4 beatdown in the opener of this series here last night, we like the Mariners to dig deep and find a way to deliver. That said, in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Note that Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Tyler Glasnow is 2-1 with a 4.45 ERA for the Rays, but we still give the battle-tested George Kirby the nod in this one, sitting at 6-7 with a 3.26 ERA. Lay the price and grab Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
07-01-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* OVER Red Sox/Jays (ASSASSIN) Although both teams have been playing to lower-scoring affairs of late, we look for this Saturday afternoon total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Toronto has seen the total go "under" in four straight now after yesterday's 5-0 series opening loss here. Note though that the Jays have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a shutout home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Boston has seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that the Red Sox have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Kutter Crawford is 2-4 with a 4.01 ERA for the Red Sox, while Yusei Kikuchi is 7-2 with a 3.75 ERA for the Jays. Decent starters, but this is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time," because the overall situation, combined with the above listed trends all point to this one being an offensive slug-fest; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-30-23 | Rays -130 v. Mariners | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
10* Rays (BLOOD-BATH) The Rays are 56-28, including 22-18 on the road, while Seattle is 38-41 this year, including 22-19 at home. Tampa just took two of three at Arizona, cooling off a red hot Arizona side, and at this price, we absolutely think the surging Rays are worth the price of admission. Bryce Miller is a bright spot for the Mariners, who just lost two of three here at home to lowly Washington this week, as he's 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA. But Shane McClanahan has been a step above, entering at 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA. It's going to be a super hot sunny night in the PNW and we like the Rays to take advantage. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-30-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* D-Backs runline (BOB) In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two teams in different leagues, but each has had a similar trajectory to this point. Each just went 1-2 in their respective series this week. These starters are pretty evenly matched, as Arizona turns to Tommy Henry, who is 4-1 with a 4.31 ERA, while the home side counters with Griffin Canning, who is 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA. Good value here, lay the price and grab the visitors on the runline. AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-30-23 | Tigers -113 v. Rockies | 5-8 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (BLOWOUT) Both teams have struggled this year, but Detroit is playing better right now. The Tigers are 35-45, while the Rockies are 32-51. Detroit just went 2-2 in Texas, while Colorado went 1-2 here at home vs. the Dodgers. But this is a starting pitching matchup that favors Detroit, and that's going to be enough to tip the scales in the Tigers' favor, as despite his 2-5 win/loss record, Michael Lorenzen owns a highly respectable 3.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Alex Gomber is terrible, he's 5-7 with a 7.01 ERA for the Rockies. Great value here on Detroit. AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-30-23 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Red Sox (ASSASSIN) This is a big mid-season AL East series. These teams are lagging behind the Rays, but anything is possible at this point of the season. We see this game being decided late, or even in extras, therefore we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Red Sox have lost five straight now, but note that they're 8-3 in their last 11 after five or more straight losses in a row. These starters are evenly matched, as James Paxton (3-1, 3.19 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.60.) Everything points to a tight battle, the play is Boston on the runline option. AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-29-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* OVER Brewers/Mets (ASSASSIN) The Brewers have played to three straight "unders" after yesterday's 5-2 win. This is the fourth game of a four-game series between the clubs and the Brewers are 2-1 so far. Note that the Mets though have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row as well. Two decent starters, but this is just a case of Adrian Houser (2-2, 4.02 ERA) and Max Scherzer (7-2, 3.95) being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." The overall situation points to this total sailing "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-29-23 | Padres -179 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -179 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Padres (BLOWOUT) We're going to lay the price with confidence here as we like Joe Musgrove to get his team back into the winner's circle after four straight losses, including the first 2 in this series (note though that the Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Pittsburgh is hit or miss this year. It went on a big run, but it's still five games under .500. Musgrove is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA for the Padres, while Luis Ortiz is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA for the Pirates. We give the sliight nod to Musgrove in this matchup, and combined with the situational factors, and the above ATS trends, we're laying the price and expecting a decisive victory; the play is San Diego! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-28-23 | Reds v. Orioles -160 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Orioles (ASSASSIN) We had a play on Baltimore yesterday and it unfortunatley came up short. We also played the Orioles in the opener of this three-game series. And now here we are back on them once again in the finale, for sure laying this price in what we feel is a mismatch on the mound for these starting pitchers. Luke Weaver (1-2, 6.86 ERA) is "hot garbage" for the Reds, while Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.30) has been consistent for Baltimore. This line could/should in fact be much larger in our estimation; the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-28-23 | Twins +1.5 v. Braves | 0-3 | Loss | -134 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT On the Twins RUNLINE. We feel this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the Twins to bounce back in the finale of this three-game series with, at the very least, a solid ATS cover on the runline option. Note that Minnesota is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Despite being 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA, we still Kenta Maeda the nod over his counterpart Kolby Allard, who makes his season debut here tonight. Maeda actually returned from a two-month injury last Friday and looked dominant, going five scoreless vs. the Tigers (8 K's.) In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the hungry visiting side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-27-23 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER White Sox/Angels (TOTAL BOB) Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this total finally eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Angels are just 2-4 in their last six, but they managed the 2-1 win here last night in the opener of this series. They've seen the total go "under" in two straight. Chicago is just 2-3 in its last five after yesterday's setback. The White Sox have seen the total go "under" in two straight. LA hands the ball to ace Shoehei Ohtani, who is 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA, while the visitors counter with Michael Kopech, who is 3-6 with a 4.06 ERA. This is a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-27-23 | Reds v. Orioles -136 | 3-1 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. We had a play on the Orioles yesterday, and we feel they once again offer terrific value here at home to keep the good times rolling. After an incredible win streak, the Reds have now lost three straight. The slide continues here in Baltimore vs. Tyler Wells, who is 6-3 with a 3.22 ERA. The visitors counter with Andrew Abbot, who is an unrealistic 3-0 with 1.14 ERA for the Reds. These sparkling numbers are not sustainable any longer in our opinion and regression is imminent. Take Wells here at this price to deliver another solid performance; the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-26-23 | Reds v. Orioles -128 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Orioles (NON-CONF GOW) The Reds' big surge is now over after back-to-back 7-6 loss at home to Atlanta over the weekend. We say Cincinnati's spiral back down into mediocrity continues here this weekend in this difficult road matchup. Baltimore took two of three from the Mariners here over the weekend and we can expect that momentum to get carried over. Brandon Williamson is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA for the Reds, while Cole Irvin is 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA for the Orioles. For arguments sake, let's classify these starters as a "wash." At this price here at home, we'll back Irvin to get the better of his younger counterpart though; lay the price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-25-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10* UNDER D-Backs/Giants (ASSASSIN) The first two games of this series flew "over" the number, but we're anticipating a much lower-scoring affair here on Saturday afternoon finally. Ryne Nelson is 3-4 with a 5.31 ERA for Arizona, but note that the D-Backs have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight road losses against an opponent. Anthony DeSclfani is 4-6 with a 4.38 ERA for the Giants and we're expecting these battle-tested starters to duel deep into the latter frames; as a result, the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-24-23 | Twins -155 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
10* AL CENTRAL GOY on the Twins. This division is wide-open at this point of the season. No awards in MLB are handed out in June. Minnesota enters the weekend at .500 (38-38), followed by Cleveland at 36-38, then Detroit at 32-41, and then followed by the White Sox at 32-44. The good news for any of these four teams, is that they're in such a weak division right now, and that any of them that can put together a win streak and show some consistency has a real opportunity of coming out on top. That said, the Twins are still in the drivers' seat, and despite being on the road here, and no matter what the result is on Friday (releasing this pick before the Friday game goes off), we absolutely think this starting pitching matchup favors the visitors SO much, that it's now garnered a title of this magnitude. Detroit goes with Reese Olson, who is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA. Clearly, the sample size is really small and it's difficult to draw any conclusions on Olson one way or the other, but it's still significant to note that while he's 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the road, he's 0-1 with an 8.90 ERA at home. So Pablo Lopez has the definite advantage here for Minnesota, as he's 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 110:26 K/W ratio. Also note that while he's 2-2 with a 5.94 ERA at home this year, Lopez is 1-2 with a 2.72 ERA on the road this season. The stars and the planets have aligned and for Minnesota here on Saturday and because of that, it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying; the play is indeed on Minnesota! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-23-23 | Royals v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* UNDER Royals/Rays. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end here tonight. Tampa comes in off the 6-5 loss last night as a -304 favorite. Note that the Rays have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. That's now four straight "overs" that TB has played to as well. KC has seen the total go "over" in three of its last four. We have two battle-tested veterans going head-to-head in this starting pitching matchup and we're expecting each to battle deep. Despite his 1-7 record, Royals' starter Zach Greinke owns a more respectable 4.61 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Zach Eflin, who is 8-3 with a 3.26 ERA and l.00 WHIP for the Rays. All signs point to runs being at a premium in this one; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* OVER Mariners/Yanks (AL NON-DIV TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Seattle's lost three straight, and it's seen the total go "under" in six straight. Note though that the M's have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight road losses against an opponent. New York snapped a four-game slide with two straight wins to open this series, but the Yanks have now seen the total go "under" in four straight. We're not fans of either starting pitcher today. The Mariners turn to Bryan Woo (0-1, 7.30 ERA) out of necessity, while the home side counters with the pedestrian Domingo German (4-4, 4.30.) The overall situation, combined with the above O/U stats makes the "over" the correct call finally in this one! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-21-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
10* UNDER D-Backs/Brewers (ASSASSIN) Considering the quality of these starting pitchers and the red hot form in which both have started off this season, we're going with the "under" in this one. Arizona goes with Zac Gallen and he's 8-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP (so far he has a massive 100 to 19 strikeout to walk ratio.) And then for the Brewers you have the rejuvenated Julio Teheran, who is 2-2 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Milwaukee is struggling for wins right now and the play of Teheran has obviously been a huge bonus for the Brewers. Milwaukee's strength this year so far is its pitching with a collective 4.10 ERA (that's ranked 14th.) The Brewers only average 4.03 runs per game this year (which is 26h.) Arizona averages 5.18 runs per game (which ranks fifth), but I still think it'll have a difficult time plating too many runs here on Wednesday vs. the red hot Julio Terhan. It's going to be a classic 'PITCHERS DUEL' on Wednesday night between these two super competent and in form starters; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-21-23 | Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Orioles/Rays (SUPER TOTAL) This is a really interesting series, as both teams are among the best in the American League and they're both from the same division. They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean more to the home side. But we're going to steer clear of the side on this one and instead focus on the total. looking at these starting pitchers and we definitely think that runs are going to be at a premium in this game on Wednesday night. Baltimore goes with Tyler Wells who is 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA (he has an 82 to 16 strikeout to walk ratio), while the home side goes with Taj Bradley, who is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA (and 63 to 15 strikeout to walk ratio.) Recent form always plays a big part in our handicapping and these two guys come in on top form. Expect them each to battle deep, and because of that, the play is the UNDER. AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-20-23 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Giants (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting those trends to finally end here this evening. San Fran has won eight in a row, and it's seen the total go "over" in six straight. Despite yesterday's 7-4 extra-innings win, note that the Giants have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. SD has seen it go "over" in two straight now, but note that it's seen the total go "under" in three of its last four in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. We have two battle-tested starters going head-to-head here and we're expecting a classic "duel" tonight: Seth Lugo is 3-3 with a 4.10 ERA for the Padres, while Anthony DeSclafani is 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA for the Giants. The situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the "under" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-20-23 | Mets v. Astros -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* Astros (BOB) We like the Astros to snap their current five-game slide against their former teammate Justin Verlander tonight. Verlander 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for the Mets, while his counterpart Framber Valdez is 6-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.03 WHIP for the Astros. Houston has lost five straight, which is significant to note as well, as the Astros are 7-3 in their last ten after five or more straight losses in a row. We're taking the Astros to finally bounce-back here after last night's humbling 11-1 loss; the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-19-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -128 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* Twins (AL GOW) We think the Red Sox have a classic "letdown" here after four straight victories, including three straight at home over the Yankees this weekend. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! The Twins come in disgusted with their performance over the weekend, losing three of four to the Tigers here at home. For argument's sake, we're going to classify these starting pitchers as a "wash," as James Paxton is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA for the Red Sox, while Pablo Lopez is 3-3 with a 4.27 ERA for the Twins. Boston is just 16-17 at home, while Minnesota is 21-17 at home. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-18-23 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNDER Giants/Dodgers. Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to finally end here. San Fran has won six straight, and it's seen the total go "over" in four straight. Note though that the Dodgers have seen the the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. The Dodgers fell 15-0 yesterday, which is also signficant to note here, as LA has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last nine in trying to avenge a loss of ten or more runs vs. an opponent. Logan Webb is 5-6 with a 3.15 ERA for the Giants, while Tony Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA for the Dodgers. Expect them to battle deep and for this total to ultimately stay well "under" once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-18-23 | Rays v. Padres -143 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
10* Padres (ASSASSIN) The Rays are a great team, but we think they get caught "looking ahead" here to a day off, followed by a long stretch at home. The Padres are looking to make up ground and to win this series off yesterday's victory. Yonny Chirinos and Joe Musgrove have similar numbers, but we give the slight nod to Musgrove at home here. Look for San Diego to build off yesterday's win and lay this price with confidence! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-16-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Rangers RUNLINE (VALUE POW) Here's two teams in need of a win. That said, home field advantage can't be overlooked here in this particular matchup between two good pitchers that have been struggling of late. Toronto has lost four of its last six, including two of three at Baltimore earlier this week, while Texas has lost six of eight. Kevin Gausman (5-3, 3.12 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while Martin Perez (6-2, 4.67) toes the slab for the home side. Perez has allowed 14 runs over his last three starts, but we expect him to settle down here. Note that he's 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA over his last four starts here at Globe Life Field. Gausman got rocked in his last outing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits with four walks over just four innings. Overall we feel we're getting great value here on grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers -137 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* Rangers (AL GOM) Texas broke a three-game slide with a convincing 6-3 win last night, and we're expecting the home side to now close out this series with another victory, despite the Angels going with their ace Shohei Ohtani. He's 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA, but he's lost his last four starts in Texas. Nathan Eovaldi is having a huge season and we expect him to keep that momentum rolling here, coming in at 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA. LA is now 8-2 in its last ten, but we're expecting the visiting side to have another letdown here. Eovaldi is in fact 8-0 with a 1.65 ERA over his last ten starts; in our humble opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Texas! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-14-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -133 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Diamondbacks (ASSASSIN) This was an interesting series matchup before it started on Monday, as each team came into the series really hot. Arizona win won the opener 9-8, but Philadelphia bounced back wiht a big 15-3 victory last night. However, we think this is a starting pitching matchup that does favor the D-Backs here, and at this price at home, we expect they can keep the momentum rolling. The Phillies are still just 14-23 on the road, while Arizona is now 21-15 at home. The visiting side hands the ball to the lefty Ranger Suarez, who is 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He's so far been consistently inconsistent and we don't see things changing here in this difficult road venue and also especially going up against Arizona Ace Merrill Kelly, who is 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Kelly has admittedly been better on the road than at home, he's 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA on the road, and 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA at home. But, despite that, we still think at this price here at home that Kelly is for sure the VALUE PLAY; lay the short price, the play is Arizona! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-14-23 | Marlins v. Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10* UNDER Marlins/Mariners (TOTAL BOB) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Mariners 9-3 win last night. Seattle has seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is significant to note as the M's have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Miami has also seen the total go "over" in three straight, which is also important for us to take note, as the Fish have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. We have two red hot starters going head to head, and that's another reason this total is so low, but still not low enough in our estimation. Eury Perez is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA for the Marlins, while Luis Castillo is 4-4 with a 2.70 ERA for the M's; all signs finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in this one! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-13-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* OVER Rockies/Red Sox (IL TOW) Everything points to this one flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Colorado has seen the total go "under" the number in three straight now after yesterday's 4-3 win here. Note though that Colorado has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Boston has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Chase Anderson is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Rockies. Difficult spot for Anderson obviously and the sample size is just too small. Karl Crawford is 1-3 with a 3.68 ERA for the Red Sox. This is just a case of each of these guys being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" though, as the overall situation, comibned with the above relevant O/U ATS stats all do indeed point to this one flying "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* Rangers (AL GOW) The Angels have been surging, and the Rangers have been stumbling somewhat of late, but I think the home side has the better starting pitcher going tonight and that'll be more than enough to help Texas get back on track in the opener of this series. LA has won six of its last seven, but off a 9-4 home win over Seattle yesterday, I think it'll have its hands full here with a now focussed Rangers side looking to snap a skid in which they've lost four of their last five. But as stated, this starting pitching matchup favors the home side in my opinion, as Tyler Anderson is 3-1 with a ballooned 5.62 ERA for the Halos, while Dane Dunning is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA for the Rangers; lay the price, the play is Texas! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-11-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Red Sox/Yanks OVER (AL EAST TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Boston has seen the total go "under" in both games here in the Bronx, including yesterday's 3-1 loss. It's interesting to note though that the BoSox have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or no runs in. New York has now seen the total go "under" in three straight, which is significant to note here as well, as the Yanks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Both starting pithers have been "pedestrian" at best this year, and pedestrian won't get the job done tonight in our opinion. Brian Bello is 3-4 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the Red Sox, while Clarke Schmidt is 2-6 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.46 WHIP for the Yanks. Look for these guys to make an early exit and ultimately expect this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-10-23 | Mets v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER Mets/Pirates (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been struggling, and each has been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late. These facts though have only helped in contributing to this total here on Saturday in being a bit higher than it normally would/should be in our opinion. The Mets have now lost seven straight, and they've seen the total go "over" the number in their last three, including in yesterday's 14-7 series opening loss here. Note though that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Pittsburgh has also seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is also significant to note here as the Pirates have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Two really decent starters who we expect to battle deep; the Mets turn to Kodai Senga, who is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA, while the home side counters with Johan Oviedo, who is 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA. The overall situation combined with the above listed ATS trends does indeed make the "under" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-09-23 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* OVER Twins/Jays (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lwer-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to come to an explosive end here in the opener of this one North of the border. Minnesota has lost five straight, and it's seen the total go "under" in six straight. Note though that the Twins have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last ten after playing to five or more straight losses in a row. The Jays enter the weekend after playing four staright at home here to Houston, going 3-1 in the process, winning the last three in the series, with all three of those contests going "under" the number. Note though that TO has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Both pitchers have been decent, with Sonny Gray at 4-1 with 2.15 ERA for the Twins, while Yusei Kikuchi is 6-2 with a 4.40 ERA for the Jays. This, though, is just a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time," as the overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats do indeed make the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in our opinion! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
8* OVER White Sox/Yanks (TOTAL BLOWOUT) These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, including in the White Sox 3-2 upset victory here in yesterday's series opener, but we're expecting much more of a "slug-fest" here on Thursday afternoon in the Bronx. Note that New York has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The White Sox have now won four straight, and they've seen the total go "under" in all four of those contests as well. That fact though has only helped in driving today's number a little lower than it normally would/should be though in our opinion. Neither starter has been anything to write home about this year. Lance Lynn is 4-6 with a 6.55 ERA for the White Sox, while Luis Severino is 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA for the Yanks. This number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-07-23 | Orioles v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER Orioles/Brewers (BEST OF BEST) These teams have been playing to lower-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting that to end this evening. We had a play on Milwaukee last night in the Brewers 4-3 extra-innings victory. Milwaukee is now back in 1st in the NL Central at 33-28. Milwaukee has now won four of its last five. It's seen the total go "under" in six of its last seven, including in three straight. That's important to take note of for us though, as the Brewers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Baltimore has seen the total go "under" in three of its last four, including in the most recent loss. The Brewers get the job done most nights with the seventh ranked offense that averages 4.92 RPG. The overall ERA is middle of the road though at 4.16, ranked 15th. The overall situation, combined with the strong O/U ATS stat listed above, makes the OVER the correct call here in this one on Wednesday night! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-06-23 | Orioles v. Brewers -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
10* Brewers (IL GOY) We like the Brewers to carry over their recent momentum here at home, and overall we feel the home side offers tremendous value at this price. Each team had Monday off. Baltimore has been trading wins and losses over its last eight games, and off an 8-3 win over San Fran most recently, we're expecting this trend to continue here. Milwaukee is now first in the NL Central off a sweep of what was a red hot Cincinnati side over the weekend. Kyle Gibson is 7-3 with a 3.89 ERA for the Orioles, while Freddy Peralta is 5-5 with a 4.62 ERA for the Brewers. For arguments sakes, we're calling these guys a "wash." The Brewers bullpen has been strong over the last month and once again, this all comes down to what we perceive to be insane "line value" on what we feel is a very undervalued and hungry home side; lay the short price, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-06-23 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* OVER Twins/Rays (AL TOM) Both teams come into this series having played to several lower-scoring games, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Minnesota went 2-2 at home against Cleveland this weekend, losing the final two. The final three games in the series went "under" the number, which is important to note here as the Twins have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Tampa took three of four in Boston over the weekend. The final three games went "under" the number. And that's also significant to take note of, as the Rays have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Louie Varland is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA for Minnesota, while Zach Eflin is 7-1 with a 3.30 ERA for the Rays. We have a difficult time finding too many negative things to say about either starter, so we won't bother. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trends though will see this one fly "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-05-23 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* OVER Cubs/Padres (NL TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but despite a couple of decent starters going head-to-head here in the finale of this four-game series, we think they're at the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" tonight, as we expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Chicago has now seen the total go "under" in six straight games after last night's 7-1 win here. Note though that Chicago has still seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. SD has now seen the total go "under" in three straight after yesterday's loss. Note though that Chicago has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Because this play is on the "over," it's going to be an ACTION play, meaning it doesn't matter who gets the start here. Kyle Hendricks is scheduled for the Cubs and he's 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The home side counters with Blake Snell, who is 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trends does indeed make the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-04-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* UNDER Yanks/Dodgers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. The Yanks have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six after last night's 6-3 victory. Some would have "pushed" on that total last night, but it did close at 8.5, so so far both games here in LA have gone "over" in this series. We're expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. Note that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Domingo German is battle-tested for the Yanks, now 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA and tiny 0.98 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Bobby Miller, who is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and even more impressive 0.91 WHIP. Look for these two "studs" to battle deep and for this total to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-03-23 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Cards/Pirates (PITCHERS DUEL) Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs recently, but we expect those trends to end this afternoon. Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five games. That includes in yesterday's series-opening 7-5 victory here over the Cards. Note though that St. Louis has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Two decent starters going head-to-head here, and we're expecting a "duel:" Jordan Montgomery is 2-6 with a 4.48 ERA for the Cards, while Luis Ortiz 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA for Pittsburgh. Note that despite just a 1-2 record vs. Pittsburgh lifetime, Montgomery does own the sharp 2.95 ERA in that span. The overall situation points to this total staying below this super high number; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-02-23 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
10* UNDER Guardians/Twins (AL CENTRAL DIV. TOY) Both teams have been playing to higher-scroing games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Cleveland has now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight after falling 7-6 in last night's series opener here. That's significant to note though as Cleveland has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straigth "overs" in a row. Minnesota has seen the total go "over" in three of its last four. The bottom line here though is we really like these starting pitchers and we ultimatley believe they'll be throwing deep into this one: Cleveland goes with Aaaron Civale, who is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA, while Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober, who is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA. The overall situation combined with the above listed ATS O/U stat does indeed make the "under" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion! AAA Sports |
|||||||
06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox -153 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
8* Red Sox (BLOOD-BATH) After losing the first two games of this series, we like Chris Sale to outduel his counterpart and for the Red Sox to finally bounce-back in the finale. Note that Boston is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Reds are finally primed for a letdown after five straight victories, as note that Cincinnati is just 2-6 in its last eight after five or more straight wins in a row. Hunter Greene is an unremarkable 1-4 with a 4.18 ERA for the Reds. Sale is 5-2 with a 4.72 ERA for the Red Sox. After a brutal start to the season, Sale has been "on fire" and we expect that progression to continue; lay the price, the play is Boston! AAA Sports |
|||||||
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER Yanks/Mariners (BLOOD-BATH) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but we're finally expecting a more defensive "duel" here in the finale. Note that Seattle has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Clarke Scmidt is 2-5 with a 5.58 ERA for the Yanks, while George Kirby is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA for Seattle. We're expecting these starters to battle deep, and as a result, we look for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
|||||||
05-30-23 | Guardians v. Orioles -146 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* play on the Orioles. Off yesterday's series opening 5-0 loss, we think that Kyle Gibson and the home side offer great value at this price to "bounce back." Note that Baltimore is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a shutout home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Cleveland is still just 12-14 on the road this year, which doesn't bode well for starter Cal Quantrill, who is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA this season. Gibson is 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA. All things considered, we feel this line could/should in fact be a lot larger; lay the price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
|||||||
05-30-23 | Padres v. Marlins -119 | 9-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on the Marlins. The Padres are regressing, and the Marlins are surging and we expect these trends to continue here on Tuesday night. The Marlins swept their series at the Angels and they enter having won four of their last five, while the Padres lost two of three in the Bronx over the weekend. Ryan Weathers is 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA for the Friars, while Sandy Alcantara is 2-5 with a 4.86 ERA for the Fish. Alcantara is 2-1 with a 0.96 ERA in three career starts vs. the Padres, while Weathers is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two career starts vs. the Marlins; lay the price, the play is indeed on Miami! AAA Sports |