Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-23 | Blue Jays -128 v. Pirates | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Jays (BLOOD-BATH) Toronto broke a five-game slide with a 4-0 win yesterday and we expect the Jays now build off that victory with another one here. The Pirates got off to an unbelievable start to the season, but perhaps a little TOO unbelievable. Expect their transition back down to mediocrity to be a swift one. Toronto hands the ball to Jose Berrios, who is 2-3 with a 5.29 ERA, while the home side counters with Johan Oviedo, who is 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA. Pittsburgh has a few key players on the injured list as well now. Berrios is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Oviedo has faced the Jays once and he held them scoreless over three innings last year, but the Pirates still lost the game 4-0. We think Berrios is the correct call here; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports |
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05-06-23 | Marlins v. Cubs -167 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
8* Cubs (ROUT) I had a FREE PLAY on Chicago yesterday and I believe that the Cubs can keep the foot on the gas here on Saturday and find a way to deliver in what is another great situational starting pitcher matchup for it. The Marlins go with Brian Hoeing, who is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA, while the Cubs counter with Drew Smyly, who is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA. Smyly has now gone five straight starts allowing two or fewer earned runs and he owns a 2.37 ERA in six lifetime appearances vs. the Fish. This is a big starting pitching mismatch, one SO big, that it makes this a price in which we have no worries in laying; so lay the price, the play is indeed on Chicago! AAA Sports |
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05-05-23 | A's v. Royals -142 | 12-8 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
8* Royals (MISMATCH) Two of the absolute worst teams in the league go head to head here, but this is one that the Royals are going to win in our estimation. The A's have been downright terrible in every facet. Their starting pitcher today Kirk Muller is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA. The A's have allowed 244 runs, by far the most in baseball. The Royals have only been slightly better, but we're giving a big nod to their starter Brad Keller, who is 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA. Note that the A's bullpen has blown nine of 12 save chances while posting a 6.78 ERA in the process. Look for Keller to take advantage here; lay the price, the play is Kansas City! AAA Sports |
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05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Red Sox/Phillies (TOP TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. The Red Sox have won six straight and they've seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six, including four straight. Note though that Boston has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Phillies have lost four straight and they'll be eager to stop the slide obviously. They've also seen the total go "over" the number in three straight. We have plenty of experience on the hill here as Boston hands the ball to Chris Sale, who is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA, while the Phillies counter with Zach Wheeler, who is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA. Wheeler is coming off a gem, going six scoreless and striking out seven in a win over Houston. Sale also turned the corner with his last performance, allowing one run over seven innings in a win over Cleveland. Look for these two to battle deep and as such, look for this total to indeed stay "under" the number! AAA Sports |
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05-04-23 | Brewers -143 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (BLOOD-BATH) At this price, despite being on the road, Wade Miley and the Brewers will be a popular wager today. Typically we are a contrarian service, but enough is enough for the Brewers here today who have lost three straight, including the first two here at Coors. Note though that Milwaukee is 8-2 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. I think the Rockies take a step back here today facing Brewers' ace Wade Miley, who is 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA. He'll be opposed b Connor Seabold, who is 0-0 with a 5.27 ERA. Better hurry to get down on this one before the line moves any higher; the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
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05-04-23 | Mets v. Tigers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNDER Mets/Tigers (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs, but we expect those trends to end this afternoon with two solid starting pitchers going head-to-head in Detroit. The Mets have lost four of their last five, including the first two in this series, as they dropped both games of yesterday's double-header. Both games went "over" the number. Note that the Mets have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Detroit is 3-2 in its last five, and it's seen the total go "over" in four of those contests. Justin Verlander makes his season debut for the Mets after sitting out the first month with a minor injury. He tossed five innings of no-run ball in Double A on Friday as a tune-up. He's ready to go. He'll be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 2-2 with a 2.21 ERA. Look for these starter to be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-03-23 | Cubs -182 v. Nationals | 1-2 | Loss | -182 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
8* Cubs (SPECIAL) Jake Irvin will be making his major league debut tonight for the Nationals: "He's stretched out to about 90 pitches," Nationals manager Davey Martinez said. "So we're going to give him an opportunity to come out here and start for us and see what he does and see where he goes." We say this one favors Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.29 ERA) and the hungry visiting side. Chicago has lost three of his last four starts, so he's a golden opportunity for the Cubs to provide their "ace" with some support finally. Considering the starting pitching talent discrepancy, this line could/should in fact be larger in our opinion; the value here does indeed swing to Chicago! AAA Sports |
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05-03-23 | Mets -152 v. Tigers | 5-6 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Mets (BLOWOUT) Just a complete mismatch on the mound here between these starters in the first game of the double-header. The Mets have had a day off, while the Tigers have had two days off. New York is 16-13 overall and 10-7 on the road, while Detroit is 10-17 overall, including just 5-7 at home. The Mets hand the bal to Joey Lucchesi, who is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA, while the home side counters with Joey Wentz, who is 0-3 with a ballooned 6.45 ERA. Look for New York and Lucchesi to take advantage and set the early tone in this first game; lay the price, the play is indeed on New York! AAA Sports |
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05-02-23 | Orioles -145 v. Royals | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) We don't mind laying chalk on a road favorite when we believe our "play on" side should/could in fact be a much larger one. And that's the case here for sure. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Wells, who is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA, and he'll be going up against Ryan Yarbrough, who is 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA. At 19-9, the Orioles are out to their best start since 1997. Wells does actually lead the league with a minuscule 0.724 WHIP. He's made two career starts vs. the Royals and won both. The Royals' 7-22 record matches a franchise-worst start of all time. Yarbrough has had success vs. the Orioles in the past, but that was then and this is now. The current form of these starters plays a huge role in the outcome of this contest; the play is on Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Dodgers (NL TOW) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. The Phillies come to town having their four-game win streak come to an end last night in a 4-3 setback at Houston. The Phillies are starting to play a lot better, despite having some key sluggers out still. They've seen the total go "under" in four straight though. LA has seen the total go "under" in two straight. The Dodgers lost two of three to the Pirates, before then bouncing back with a three-game home sweep of the Cardinals over the weekend. LA has seen the total go "under" in two straight. Tony Gonsolin is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Dodgers. He sprained his ankle in spring training. He worked his first 3 1/3 innings, holding the Pirates scoreless last week. Clearly a much tougher task here today though. Taijuan Walker is a big dog here on the road, he's 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA so far for the Phillies. Overall he's 3-3 with a 4.32 ERA in 11 career starts vs. LA. Regardless, we don't trust either starter to go deep. Everything finally points to a higher-scoring affair; the play is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-30-23 | Phillies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Astros (INTERLEAGUE TOW) Both teams have played to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Philly has seen teh total go "under" in three straight. The Phillies have now won four in a row. Note though that Philadelphia has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Houston has now seen the total go "under" in four straight after the back-to-back losses to open this series. However, note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent. Bailey Falter is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA for the Phillies, while Jose Urquidy is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA for the Astros. Pretty pedestrian numbers so far. All signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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04-29-23 | Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10* UNDER Cards/Dodgers (NL TOY) We're expecting a lower-scoring "duel" here in the second game of this three-game series. Last night the Dodgers won the opener by a score of 7-3. LA has now seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight. Despite still having several key injuries, LA is starting to resemble the team that won 111 games last year finally. That said, note that the Dodgers have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. We have two experienced starters going head-to-head here, and all signs point to a classic "duel" as we eluded to off the top, as the Cardinals' Jordan Montgomery is 2-3 with a 3.81 ERA, while the DOdgers' Clayton Kershaw is 4-1 with a 2.32 ERA. Everything points to this total now staying well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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04-28-23 | Yankees v. Rangers -176 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
10* Rangers (AL GOY) This is the second game of a four-game set between the Yankees and the Rangers. Thursday sees Gerrit Cole go up against Andrew Heaney, and we're releasing this selection before that game has even started. MLB is one of the only sports where each and every game has to be looked at individually, mainly because of the starting pitching aspect. This particular play is based almost entirely on the starting pitching matchup. The Rangers enter this series eager to bounce back after getting swept in three games by the Reds: "There's nothing to be concerned about," Rangers' coach Bruce Bochy said. "I mean, we've got a lot of baseball left. These guys will bounce back. We have a tough team ahead of us, so we will have to play our best ball, but no, no one is concerned, and we will continue to get better." But as stated off the top, this one is based upon the starting pitchers. Clarke Schmidt is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA for the Yankees, while Jacob deGrom is 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA for the Rangers. Look for the Rangers' new super-star starter to rise to the occassion here and get the better of his old cross-town rival; lay the price, the play is Texas! AAA Sports |
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04-27-23 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
10* UNDER Dodgers/Pirates (EARLY) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end here this afternoon. The Dodgers have seen the total go "over" in five straight after yesterday's 8-1 loss. Note though that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Previous to this series with the Dodgers, the surging Pirates, who have now won eight of their last nine, had seen the total go "under" in four straight. Julio Urias is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA for LA, while Mitch Keller is 2-0 with a 3.64 ERA for Pittsburgh. Look for these competent starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay "under" the posted number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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04-26-23 | Marlins v. Braves -153 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Braves (NL BOB) Atlanta has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 11-0 and 7-4. We can expect the defending champs to keep the foot on the gas here in the third game of this four game set. Despite this being the Marlins ace in Sandy Alcantara, who was lights out last year, but who hasn't quite lived up to those expectations this season yet, I think we're getting great value on the defending champs here at home. They hand the ball to Bryce Elder, who is 2-0 with a minuscule 1.14 ERA and a sharp 23 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio. He had a hard luck no-decision last time outm, going six innings and allowing one run with six strikeouts vs. the hard-hitting Astros. Alcantara though as eluded to earlier hasn't been in the same form this season as he was last year, as so far he's 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA. In his last outing he went six innings and allowed five runs in a 5-0 loss at home to the Diamondbacks (Previous to that he was shelled for nine runs over four innings in a 15-3 loss at Philadelphia. At this time of the year, "current form" is crucial and as Bob Barker used to say as well, the Price Is Right on this one for sure; lay the price with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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04-25-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -167 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Brewers (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After losing two of their last three, including two in a row, including yesterday's series opener here vs. the lowly Tigers, we like the Brewers with their ace on the mound, to bounce back tonight. Spencer Turnbull is just 1-3 with a 7.85 ERA for the Tigers, and he's severely overmatched here by Eric Lauer, who is 3-1 with a 4.30 ERA. Note that the Brewers are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; lay the price with confidence, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
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04-24-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Astros runline (BEST OF BEST) Two really good teams. Two really good pitchers. The Rays are 19-3 this season, including 13-0 at home. The defending champs are starting to play better after a slow start though, now 12-10 overall, including 6-3 on the road. The fact that the Rays have yet to suffer a home loss will be a big motivating factor for Houston here obviously. Jose Urquidy is 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA for the visitors, while Taj Bradley is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA for the home side. I say these starters are a "wash." In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extra innings, we're laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Houston on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-23-23 | Marlins v. Guardians OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
10* Marlins/Guardians OVER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this eveing. Miami has seen the total go "under" in nine straight games, while Cleveland has seen the total go "under" in six straight. Cleveland has lost the first two games of this contest by scores of 6-1 and 3-2. Note though that the Guardians have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The fact that these teams have played to so many "unders" of late has also helped in driving this particular total here today a couple points lower than it normally would/should be; because of that, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
8* Yankees (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After yesterday's series opening 6-1 loss yesterday, we're expecting Gerrit Cole and company to bounce back here and set the tone early in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Alek Manoah, who is coming off an incredible season, but who is just 1-1 with a 6.98 ERA this year. Cole is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA. Cole is back on track showing his elite form, while regression seems imminent for Manoah this season. Also note that the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in; lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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04-21-23 | Tigers v. Orioles -170 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) The discrepancy in talent and form between these starting pitchers absolutely justifies in laying this larger price in my opinion. Tyler Wells is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA for the Orioles. In his most recent outing he gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting White Sox. Detroit is just 3-6 on the road and it counters with Michael Lorenzen, who is 0-0 with a 13.50 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off eight hits over four innings vs. the Giants in his season debut on Saturday. We don't love Wells or anything overall as a starter, but we sure do love him here in this matchup; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Orioles! AAA Sports |
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04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10* D-Backs RUNLINE (NL WEST GOY) We feel that that home side has a very real shot of winning this game outright, but at this price, we're getting fantastic value on the runline option here. Guess who leads the NL West rigth now? It's not the Padres, the Giants or the Dodgers. It's the D-Backs at 11-8. San Diego is 9-11. Earlier in the year these teams split a two-game series in San Diego. Arizona though is tied for sixth in the league in steals with 19. That's bad news for a Padres team that allows a lot of steals. Michael Wacha gets the nod for SD and he's 2-1 with a 6.06 ERA, while the home side counter with Ryne Nelson, who is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA. Half of Nelson's six career starts have come against the Friars, so this is a team that he knows well (1-1, 3.12 ERA.) Wacha is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA lifetime vs. the D-Backs. Wacha had a bounce-back season last year, but regression seems imminent, epsecially after a slow start in 2023. Tatis returns finally for the Padres, but we expect him to come out slow here in his very first game back. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Arizona on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-20-23 | Angels v. Yankees -155 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
8* Yankees (MISMATCH) We have a couple of really good starters going head-to-head here, but we say that the "home field advantage" will prove to be the difference-maker in the end. LA won the opener by a score of 5-2, before dropping yesterday's contest 3-2. Note that Shohei Ohtani has looked human vs. the Yanks, going just 13 of 67 lifetime at the plate, which translates to a .194 average. He's also hitting just .140 (6 for 43) at Yankee Stadium. Sandoval is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA for the Angels, while Cortes Jr. is 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA for the Yanks. Cortes Jr. though is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels. Look for the Yanks to build off yesterday's victory and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-19-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros -109 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Astros (ASSASSIN) The Jays go with Jose Berrios, who is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA after three games. Berrios was crushed on the road over his first two starts by allowing 14 runs and 15 hits, but he did look better in his last start at home against the Rays by allowing one run over five innings to earn his first victory. Last year Berrios was just 5-5 with a 6.40 ERA on the road so I think he's going to struggle again here in this difficult road venue. Houston counters with Luis Garcia, who is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA afer three starts. The slow start is surprising considering Garcia was 11-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. So the bottom line here is we think Garcia is going to finally settle down, as we're not overreacting to the early results. We also really do think that the Jays continue to be overvalued early on in the season here, especially on the road. Great value on the hungrier home side; lay the short price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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04-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -176 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (MISMATCH) The Cards have lost the first two games of this series, but we're expecting them to salvage the finale with what we believe is the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them today. Arizona returns home for a four-game set with San Diego tomorrow. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA, while the home side counters with Jake Woodford, who is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA. Bumgarner is 5-7 with a 5.46 ERA in 15 career starts vs. St. Louis, while Woodford is coming off a gem, allowing seven hits and no runs and striking out three in a no-decision to the Pirates. Expect Woodford to get the better of his veteran counterpart and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-18-23 | Cubs -170 v. A's | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
6* BLOOD-BATH on the Cubs. The A's have yet to see one of their starting pitchers win this year, and I don't think it's happening today either. The home side hands the ball to Ken Waldichuk, who is 0-2 with a 10.20 ERA, while the visitors counter with Marcus Stroman, who is 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA. Oakland has lost five straight, including yesterday's contest 10-1. Stroman is 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in six career starts vs. Oakland and we expect him to easily deliver the goods in this spot; lay the price with confidence, the play is Chicago! AAA Sports |
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04-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -160 | 8-7 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) Two decent starting pitchers here, but after yesterday's loss, I like the Cardinals to bounce back here at home on Tuesday. The D-Backs start Drey Jameson, who is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA, who has earned both of his wins coming out of the bullpen this year. Now starting, regression is imminent in my opinion. Jordan Montogmery is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA for St. Louis. So far he has 17 K's and five walks over 18 1/3's frames of work: "I'm going to go out there and try to eat up as many innings (as I can), save our bullpen, throw a hundred and whatever pitches," Montgomery said. "It's a little early now, but I want to be a horse going out there, give them 110, 115, every game." Lay the price, the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports |
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04-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -144 | 6-3 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here, but it's a matchup that favors the home side in my opinion. The D-Backs hand the ball to Merril Kelly, who is 0-2 with a 2.93 ERA, while the home side counters with Jack Flaherty, who is 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA. Flaherty allowed one run over six innings in a victory at Colorado last time out. He's 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts vs. Arizona. Kelly has struggled with control over his last two starts, walking eight batters over his last 11 innings. While 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA lifetime vs. the Cards, "recent performance" is the big indicator of regression for Kelly in this instance. Look for the hungry Cards to keep the foot on the gas in this favorable matchup and lay the price with confidence; the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports |
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04-16-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (CENTRAL DIVISION GOM) St. Louis had a three-game win streak going until yesterday's 6-3 upset loss as a -183 favorite. I like the Cards to bounce back here in the finale of this four game series though on Sunday. The Pirates hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA so far. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas, who is 0-1 with a 10.05 ERA after alowing six runs over five innings at Coors Field in his last outing: "In some odd parallel universe, I'm not super upset with today," said Mikolas afterwards. "The team won. The offense really picked me up. We made some great defensive plays. This is a team game. I didn't pitch as well as I would have liked to or anyone would have liked me to, but some days you have bad games. I don't get the win, the team does. The way we've been scuffling out of the gate, that's just the most important thing." St. Louis was an uncharacteristic 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position in Saturday's loss and it left nine runners on base. Don't expect that to happen again here. Look for Mikolas to settle down at home and for the Cardinals to salvage the finale of this four-game set; lay the price, the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports |
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04-16-23 | Twins v. Yankees -154 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* Yankees (ASSASSIN) Minnesota took the first two games of this four-game series, but the Yanks bounced back with a 6-1 win yesterday. I expect another blowout victory here in the finale now, as the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this mid-sized price. Gerrit Cole is 3-0 with a tiny 1.40 ERA for New York and he has to be feeling confident here in this matchup, as he's 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in five career starts vs. Minnesota. Pablo Lopez is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA for the Twins. He's looked solid in the early going, but the sample size is just too small. Look for Cole to take advantage; this price should/could in fact be much larger, which swings the value in favor of New York in this one! AAA Sports |
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04-15-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (ASSASSIN) I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, who is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to Texas in his last outing. So far Taillon has been a disaster this year and I think he's going to struggle here in this difficult road venue. The home side counter with Michael Grove, who is 0-1 with a 14.73 ERA after allowing nine runs over three innings after coming in in relief vs. Arizona last time out. This will be a bullpen game here for Grove and the home side, which is also an advantage that LA enjoys over Chicago. There is no starting pitching advantage here, and that swings the value to the hard-hitting and much deeper home side; lay the price with confidence, the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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04-15-23 | Guardians -144 v. Nationals | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10* Guardians (IL BOB) Ultimately I believe that Zach Plesac and the visiting side could/shoud in fact be much bigger favorites in this spot. Plesac has so far gotten out to a slower start, going 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA after allowing two runs over seevn innings along with six K's in an unfortunate setback to the Mariners in his last outing (note that Plesac owned a 5.29 ERA in all night games last year, compared to just 3.28 ERA in all day games. The Nationals counter with the erratic Chad Kuhl, who is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to Colorado last time out. Kuhl was a pedestrian 2-4 with a 5.05 ERA at home last year and I believe he'll struggle in this difficult matchup; lay the price, the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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04-15-23 | Mets -175 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Mets (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) The talent discrepancy between these starting pitchers absolutely makes the visiting side worth the price of admission in this one. Carlos Carrasco is coming off a big bounce-back season for the Mets, but he'll be looking to bounce back this year now after starting 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA. He most recently allowed six runs over five innings in a loss to the Fish. Carrasco finished 6-4 with a 4.57 ERA on the road last year and he couldn't have asked for a better opponent to face here the anemic A's. The home side counters with the erratic Shintaro Fujinami, who is 0-2 with a 17.55 ERA after allowing five runs over four innings in a loss to Tampa Ba last time out. Look for Carrasco to be the one to finally settle down here and lay this price with confidence; the play is the Mets! AAA Sports |
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04-14-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Jays RUNLINE (ULTIMATE) I had a play on the Rays yesterday in their 9-3 win over the Red Sox. Tampa is now 13-0 and the longer this winning streak continues to open the season for the Rays, the more unrealistic and unsustainable it becomes. Tampa is also clearly being overvalued now at this point by the bookmakers, as the majority of the public, along with seasoned pros are now essentially "blind betting" the Rays, without any real thought put into it at all. These starting pitchers are a "wash." I can make a good argument for either of these talented sides to win, but this comes down to the fact that the public and the oddsmakers have overvalued Tampa now at this point because of the unreal start. Regression is imminent Tampa fans. Regardless, at this price and with the extra 1.5 rums of insurance, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Toronto on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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04-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -150 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
8* Marlins (SPECIAL) Miami lost the opener of it three game series in Philadelphia by a score of 15-3, but then it won the next two games. Now back home, I like the Fish to keep the momentum rolling here. The D-Backs are 8-5, but they hand the ball to erratic veteran Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA, most recently going four innings and getting shelled for five runs in a loss to the Dodgers. Miami's offense has hit Bumgarner hard as well (Luis Arraez is 2-3, Stallings is hitting .429 in 7 ABs, Garcia is 2-6, and Hampson is hitting .222 in 27 ABs.) Miami goes with Trevor Rogers, wh is 0-2 with a 6.0) ERA, most recently allowing three runs over five innings to the Mets. Both starters now catch a break facing inferior lineups for the first time. Miami has been better offensivel though and it's always crushed Mad-Bum. Good value here on Rogers bouncing back at home; lay the price, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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04-14-23 | Phillies -141 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I like the Phillies to bounce back here after three straight losses. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 in its last eight after three or more straight losses in a row. The Phillies go with Taijuan Walker (0-1, 6.00 ERA), while the home side counters with Connor Overton (0-0, 10.13.) The Reds have somehow managed to win both of Overton's starts despite allowing nine runs over 14 innings of work. Walker on the other hand is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA vs. the Reds, while Overton is fortunate to have two no-decisions vs. the Phillies, as he's posted a combied 10.80 ERA in those contests. Look for Philadelphia to "dig deep" here with the superior starter on the hill; la the price, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -175 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
10* Rays (AL EAST GOY) I bet underdogs. I bet totals. I also bet favorites. I'm never afraid to "lay chalk," especially when I believe that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the case here. Boston hands the ball to the erratic Corey Kluber, who is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA after allowing one run over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh. Note that Kluber was just 3-7 with a 5.08 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with the red hot Jeffrey Springs who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Rays after going seven innings and scattering three hits with seven K's in an 11-0 win over Oakland. "Recent performance" is HUGE here in my break down of this contest. I look for Springs to keep the good times rolling here, as Tampa punishes Kluber early and often; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Rays! AAA Sports |
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04-12-23 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Off three straight victories, the Rangers will look to keep things rolling here against the Royals. Texas has seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, which is significant to note as the Rangers have in fact seen the total "under" the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. KC enters off three straight losses, which is also important to take note of here, as the Royals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Brad Keller is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA for the Royals, while Nate Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA for the Rangers. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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04-12-23 | White Sox v. Twins -158 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. In the early going in baseball, a good place to start to break down a matchup is with the starting pitching, nd in this case, not only is it the starting point for me, but it's also the ending point. I'm basing this pick on recent form and feel that Sonny Gray and the home side could or should in fact be larger favorites in this spot. The White Sox opened with a slim 4-3 series win, before the Twins responded with a 4-3 win yesterday. So far White Sox' starter Lucas Gioltio has struggled. He's 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA after two starts, most recently he lasted just four innings and allowed 12 hits and seven earned runs in a 13-9 loss to the lowly Pirates on the road. Last year Giolito was good on the road, but this season after two starts he's been terrible. Gray though is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA after two starts to go along with a 14 to 5 strikeout to walk ratio. Most recently he went seven innings and allowed one run here at home over the Astros. That's saying something for sure in my books. Gray is locked in and on top form and at this price, I think he's well worth the price of admission; lay the price, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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04-11-23 | Dodgers -141 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -141 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (END OF NIGHT BLOWOUT) I think that Dustin May and the Dodgers are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Ma is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA after his second straight strong start, going six innings and allowing one run with five K's in a victory over Arizona. May looks to return to his 2021 form after an injury shortened 2022, in which he finished 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Alex Wood, who is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA after going three innings and allowing three runs in a fortunate no-decision vs. the White Sox in his season debut. Wood was pedestrian last year, including just 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA at home. These divisional contests are always exciting, but most lop-sided. In all honesty, I feel that this line should/could in fact be much larger. Great value here on the undervalued visiting side; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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04-11-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -149 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -149 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BOB) I think that Aaron Nola and the Phillies are well worth the price of admission in this one. Nola is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA after back-to-back shaky starts. In his last one he did go six innings and struck out five, while allowing three runs though in a no-decision vs. the Yanks. Nola now returns home for the first time this year, and I expect the veteran to be at his best in this one (note that he was 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA at home last season.) The visitors counter with Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA after back-to-back strong outings, ost recently going seven innings and allowing one run in a win over Minnesota. I expect Luzardo to come back down to Earth here finally, while at the same time, all signs point to Nola now stepping up and taking advantage here; lay the price, the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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04-11-23 | Astros -171 v. Pirates | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -171 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
10* Astros (IL GOM) I think that Christian Javier and the Astros are well worth the price of admission on Tuesday. Javier is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA after going six innings and allowing one run and striking out five in a victory over Detroit. Javier was great on the road last year, finishing 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by Mitch Keller, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA after going seven innings and allowing one run in a victory over Boston. Keller was just 1-7 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. After B2B decent road showings, I think Keller regresses here. Houston's pen is superior and so is Javier, so lay the price with confidence, the play is indeed on the Astros! AAA Sports |
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04-10-23 | Royals v. Rangers -165 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rangers (ASSASSIN) I think that Andrew Heaney and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. The Royals hand the ball to veteran Zack Greinke, who is 0-2 with a 2.38 ERA. Heaney is 0-1 with a 23.63 ERA. Suffice it to say, I look for Heaney's second start of the season to be much better. This is a matchup that the doctor ordered for Heaney, as the KC offense has been inconsistent at best. Note that KC is just 15-37 in its last 52 meeting here. The Rangers are also 4-0 i their last four games vs. a starter with a WHIP over 1.30, and Greinke's is currently 1.41. Look for Texas to improve to 5-2 at home this season; the play is the Rangers! AAA Sports |
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04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles -165 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (PITCHING MISMATCH) I think that Kyle Gibson and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. JP Sears is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA for the A's, while Kyle Gibson is already 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA for the Orioles. Gibson allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings in a win over the hard-hitting Rangers in his last outing, and I expect him to make short work of this pathetic A's line-up as well. Sears should be in the bullpen, but he's being pressed into a starters role out of necessity; lay the price with confidence, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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04-10-23 | Yankees v. Guardians -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Guardians (AL GOW) I like the way this one sets up for the Guardians. The Yanks go with Domingo German, who is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Shane Bieber, who enters 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He gave up three runs and struck out seven in a no-decision vs. the A's in his opener. Bieber has had success vs. the Yanks at past, and at this price on his own field, I feel we are indeed getting tremendous value from the home side; lay the price, the play is CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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04-09-23 | Royals v. Giants -153 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
8* Giants (SPECIAL) I think the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this particular instance. The Royals hand the ball to Kyle Bubic, who is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA after allowing two runs over five innings in his season debut vs. the Jays (note that Bubic was just 2-7 with a 5.39 ERA On the road last season.) The home side counters with Anthon DeSclafani, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits over six innings in a 12-3 win over the White Sox in his season debut. He looks to return to his 2021 form, after an injury-shortened 2022. Look for the Giants' bullpen to be a difference in this one as well; lay the price with confidence, the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports |
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04-09-23 | Yankees -145 v. Orioles | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors Nestor Cortes Jr. and the Yankees. Cortes Jr. is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA this year after going five innings in a win over Philadelphia in his season debut. Cortes Jr. was sharp both at home and on the road last year, finishing 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Tyler Wells, hos is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going five innings and striking out two vs. the Rangers. Last year Wells was just 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA at home. Look for Cortes Jr. and the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage; lay the price, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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04-09-23 | Reds v. Phillies -171 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -171 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I feel that Philadelphia is well worth the price of admission in this one. I play dogs, totals, and I'm also not afraid to lay chalk, especially when I feel that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the definitely the case in this one. Connor Overton gets the nod for the Reds, and he's 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA over five runs off eight hits over four innnings. He'll be opposed by vetrean Taijuan Walker, who enters 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings vs. the Yanks in his season debut. Walker has the experience and pedigree to make an immediate return to the winner's circle here and I have no problem laying this larger price on what I expect to be a lop-sided destruction from start to finish. AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Nationals v. Rockies -130 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
10* Rockies (NL BOB) I think that Austin Gomber and the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this one. The visitors go with Trevor Williams, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA after allowing four runs over five innings in a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay in his opener. Note that Williams was 0-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the road last season. The Rockies' Gomber is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA after allowing three runs over six innings in a tight 3-1 loss to San Diego. Considering how weak this Nationals' bullpen is, I feel Gomber for sure should be favored by more at home here; great value on Colorado! AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Padres v. Braves -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Braves (BLOOD-BATH) We have an excitig NL matchup here, but it's one that favors Charlie Morton and the home side in my opinion. In fact, I don't think you can underestimate how important the home field advantage will be in this particular matchup. Michael Wacha is 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA for the Padres after allowing four runs over six innings with two K's in a fortunate win over the Rockies in his opener. Charlie Morton gets the call for the home side and he's 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA after allowing three runs over five innings in an 8-4 victory over the Cardinals in his season opener. A battle of veterans here, but as stated off the top, hom field advantage will prove to be the difference for Morton today; lay the price with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Marlins v. Mets -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
8* Mets (MOUND MISMATCH) The talent discrepancy between these starters makes the home side well worth the price of admission in my opinion. Trevor Rogers is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA for the Marlins after going four innings and allowing four runs in a setback to the Mets in his opener. Rogers was just 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA on the road last season and I think he'll struggle in this difficult away venue. The home side counters with the underrated Kodai Senga, who enters 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing one run to go along with eight K's in a victory over Miami. Now back at home, I think Senga could/should in fact be a much bigger fav in this one; lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Reds v. Phillies -137 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
8* Phillies (ROUT) I think Bailey Falter and the home side are worth the price of admission in this one. Falter is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing two runs to go along with three K's in a tight 2-1 setback with the Rangers. Now at home, I like Falter to settle down and take advantage. Nick Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA after going five innings in and allowing two runs with nine K's in a 6-2 victory over Pittsburgh. Lodolo was just 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA on the road though and I think he'll struggle here in this difficult road venue; all things considered, I believe we're getting great line value here on the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -153 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) I think Brandon Woodruff and the home side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Woodruff is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA, while his counterpart Jack Flaherty is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Cardinals. The Brewers have won five straight, including 10-0 and 9-0 destructions of the Mets earlier this week. The Cards enter off three straight losses in Atlanta. That's bad news for St. Louis, as dating back to last year finds Woodruff having gone 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA over his last 19 starts (he was 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA in three starts vs. the Cards last year.) Flaherty hasn't fared as well vs. the Brewers, going 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 16 appearances vs. them (he's also just 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA in eight starts at Milwaukee.) All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; lay the price, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
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04-07-23 | Marlins v. Mets -145 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
10* Mets (ASSASSIN) At this time of year, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, Tyler Megill and the home side should/could in fact be much larger favorites in this home matchup. Megill (1-0, 3.60 ERA) will face off against Edward Cabrera (0-0, 4.50.) This is the second time they've faced each other, with Megill having already beaten the Fish in Miami to kick off the 2023 campaign. The rain-out/delay from Thursday only works in the Mets favor here in my opinion. Megill is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in three games vs. the Marlins, while Cabrera is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA in five starts vs. the Mets; look for New York to take advantage early here and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves -171 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
10* Braves (NL GOM) We're going to have an exciting series here in Atlanta, and we have a good pitching matchup to open things up between the Padres' Blake Snell, and the Braves' Spencer Strider. That said, I feel this is a contest that favors the home side. Snell enters 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, lasing only four innings and allowing six hits and three runs in a 7-2 loss to the Rockies. Strider is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits and no runs over six innings in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. Strider was 6-1 with a 2.18 ERA at home last yera, and in my professional opinion, he could/should in fact be a much larger fav in this spot. I don't trust Snell on the road; lay the price, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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04-06-23 | Blue Jays -173 v. Royals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
8* Jays (BLOWOUT SPECIAL) Because it's still so early in the season, I'm looking for value with starting pitching most of the time. And in my opinion, Kevin Gausman and the Jays could/should in fact be much larger favs here in this matchup on the road in KC vs. veteran Jordan Lyles. Guasman enters 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA after going six innings and allowing three runs and striking out seven vs. the Cardinals. Gausman excels on the road, last year he was 8-3 with a tiny 2.30 ERA away from friendly confines. Lyles is 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA after going five innings and allowing two runs with two K's in a 2-0 loss to the Twins on April 1st. Look for Gausman's road dominance to continue to open up 2023 and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-06-23 | Red Sox -134 v. Tigers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
8* Red Sox (MOUND MISMATCH) At this point of the season, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, I think Chris Sale and the visiting side offer great value here. Both starters got crushed in their respective openers, but I believe Sale has everything in place for a bounce back effort. Spencer Turnbull gets the nod for the Tigers, and he was rocked for seven runs off eight hits over two innings in a loss to Tampa in his opener. Sale gave up seven runs over three innings to the Orioles. Sale though is 10-8 with a 2.96 ERA in 33 career appearances vs. Detroit. Look for Sale to get the better of his counterpart and lay the price with confidence; the play is Boston! AAA Sports |
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04-05-23 | Angels -148 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Angels (DESTRUCTION) Two really good starters here, but I like the way this one sets up for Shohei Ohtani and the visiting side. Ohtani is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Angels, while Chris Flexen is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Mariners. Flexen is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Angels, but Ohtani is 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA in six career starts vs. the Mariners. He received a no-decision in his opening start, despite striking out ten. The Angels line-up is healthy and I expect them to take advantage here; lay the price, the play is the Angels! AAA Sports |
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04-05-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -156 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) The Phillies got off the schneid to move to 1-4 with a victory here yesterday, but I like the home side to bounce back and take this three-game interleague series. Gerrit Cole is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Yanks after allowing three hits over six innings, striking out 11 in a victory over the Giants. He's 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Phillies. Who are still missing many key pieces in their lineup. Aaron Nola is 0-0 with a 12.27 ERA after struggling in his opener vs. the Rangers, allowing five runs over three innings. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts vs. New York, but I say he's in over his head here in this difficult road venue. Up until last year, Nola's kryptonite has been his play on the road. I think regression is in order for Nola this season and overall we're getting great value on New York! AAA Sports |
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04-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Royals +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
8* Royals runline (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams are 1-3. Both really need a win here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Both teams have struggled at the plate so far. I give the slight nod to Kris Bubic in this starting pitching matchup though. He was 3-13 with a 5.58 ERA last season, but he looked great in the Spring, going 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA spannning 11 innings, with 15 K's over five appearances. Yusei Kikuchi was just 6-7 with a 5.19 ERA last year. In five career starts vs. the Royals he's a pitiful 0-2 with an 8.69 ERA. The outright is possible, but the value here lies with the runline; and that's indeed the play here, KC on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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04-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -137 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Padres (ASSASSIN) The Padres are rolling with three straight victories now. I say they keep the foot on the gas here with the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Zac Gallen had a great year last year for the D-Backs, but he got rocked on Opening Day, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks over just 4 2/3's innings. Gallen was terrible in Spring, posting a ballooned 8.27 ERA over four starts. Darvish was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA last year. He always starts strong and I expect that to again be the case this season; all things considered, I feel we're getting unreal line value here on Darvish and the home side! AAA Sports |
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04-03-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Astros | 7-6 | Win | 103 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
8* play Tigers runline. Detroit is another team that's started 0-3. The Astros looked great at times in their opening series, and pretty pedestrian in others. They're 2-2. Both starters saw limited action in 2022. Boyd was 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, and Brown was 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA. The Tigers went down hard in that series opener, but it wasn't for a lack of trying, striking out 30 times over three games. Boyd faced the Astros once back in 2021 and he conceded just one run off six hits with one walk and four K's over seven innings in the victory. The Astros looked pedestrian at the plate in their first series collectively (.227), so that leaves the door open here for the desperate visting side. Brown is young and his sample size is still too small to properly assess. I say regression is imminent; in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance with Detroit! AAA Sports |
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04-03-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Yankees | 1-8 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
8* play Phillies runline. After starting the season 0-3, I think that Taijuan Walker can, at the very least, match his counterpart Nick Cortes Jr. inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, I feel the value swings to the desperate underdog visiting side. The Phillies are still missing key pieces in their hitting line-up. Taijuan Walker though is going to be the difference-maker in my opinion, as the veteran was 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA for the Mets last year. He faced the Yanks twice last season, going 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA over 11 innings. The Yanks are 2-1 after beating the Giants in their Opening series. Cortes Jr. went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA last year. The 0-3 sweep won't be sitting well with anyone in Philadelphia and I expect a much more concerted effort here. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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04-03-23 | Cubs -117 v. Reds | 6-7 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
8* play on the Cubs. After one series, the Cubs bullpen looks pretty good. Combined with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, I think the visitors offer good value here. Connor Overton was 1-0 with a 2.73 ERA in 2022 for the Reds, but he missed 110 games with injury. He was 0-2 with a 15.34 ERA over 11 2/3's innings this spring. Drew Smyly was 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 2022. He was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in five Spring starts, but note that he closed last season by conceding two or fewer runs in eight of his final nine starts to go along with a 2.28 ERA. He's also 5-0 with a 2.92 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Reds. Look for Chicago and Smyly to step up and take advantage here; the play is the Cubs! AAA Sports |
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04-02-23 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER Phillies/Rangers (IL TOM) A great common sense play here. Philadelphia's starting pitching and bullpen has so far been terrible over the first two games of this series, losing 11-7 and 16-3 yesterday. The Phillies are without several of their top/key sluggers as well still for a few weeks. The Rangers line-up has exploded, but for this final IL game to start the season, I believe the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. The Phillies hand the ball to Bailey Falter, who was 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA last season. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez, who was 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA last year. Look for these quality starters to battle deep, and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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04-02-23 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Orioles/Red Sox. I am rushing a bit here this morning to get my analysis done, as I am about to catch a flight. Regardless, after the first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, I'm expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. The Orioles hand the ball to Cole Irvin, who was 9-13 with a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts for the A's last year. In nine career innints vs. Boston, he has no decisions and a 2.00 ERA. The home side counters with Tanner Houck, who allowed three earned runs or fewer in 31 of his 32 outings last year, including all four starts. The value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in this one, so the play is the indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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04-01-23 | Tigers v. Rays -167 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Rays. Zach Eflin gets the nod here for Tampa. He was 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA in 20 games (13 starts) for Philly last year. I just can't trust Spencer Turnbull here for Detroit, who missed all of 2022 recovering from TJ surgery. Turnbull struggled with confidence during the Spring: "Definitely a little nervous," Turnbull said after his first assignment. "I felt like a baby deer out there, but it was good to be back out there." Lay the price with confidence, the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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04-01-23 | White Sox v. Astros -116 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
10* Astros (BLOOD-BATH) I feel like the White Sox and Lucas Giolito are getting far too much respect here on the road, and that swings the value to Jose Urquidy and the undervalued home side. Urquidy was 13-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 29 appearances last year. He took the off-season really seriously and he's back in the rotation for now. he's 1-0 with a minuscule 1.84 ERA in two career outings vs. the ChiSox. Giolito is coming off his second-straight 11-9 season, pitching to a pedestrian 4.90 ERA last year. He lost both starts vs. the Astros last season, getting shelled for 15 runs off 15 hits over eight innings. Urquidy is the correct call here in my opinion; lay the short price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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03-31-23 | Guardians v. Mariners -155 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Mariners (ASSASSIN) Seattle could/should easily be a much bigger fav here. I don't ever usually "flip-flop" on a team, as I had a play on Shane Bieber and the Guardians yesterday, but MLB is the one sport that for sure needs to be looked at separately and on their own accord, because of the starting pitching aspect. With that in mind, I just think Seattle should in fact be a much larger fav here. Have you even heard of Hunter Gaddis? The only reason he's getting the start here is that Triston McKenzie is injured to start the season. Gaddis was 0-2 with an 18.41 ERA last year. Robbie Ray struggled with his new team to open up last year, but he finished strong with a 12-12, 3.71 ERA record. Note that he's 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four career apperances vs. the Guradians, which includes three starts. I say Ray gets out to a fast start in 2023 in this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence, the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Guardians +105 v. Mariners | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
10* Guardians (ASSASSIN) The Guardians had the youngest line-up in MLB last year, but they have huge expectations this season and will be out to show that it was no fluke. Seattle also had a bounce back campaign, and expectations are also large in the Pacific Northwest this season. Of any AL team, I think the Mariners could take a big step back though, after taking a step forward last season. I think Bieber is the correct call here in this starting matchup (had a 2.88 ERA last year with 198 K's and finished 7th in Cy Young voting.) Cleveland forced New York to a Game 5 in the ALDS, and it's small ball approach counters the Mariners. I like Bieber here; the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Phillies v. Rangers -125 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
10* Rangers (INTERLEAGUE GOM) Of all the teams in the National League this year, I think the Phillies have one of the biggest potentials to take a big step back this year. A lot of things went right for Philadelphia at the end of last year, and I think it'll be difficult to duplicate that success again. But the only way the Rangers can go this season is "up." Especially with Jacob DeGrom on the hill. I like Aaron Nola and he had a bounce back season last year. He was also decent away from friendly confines. But in this opening day interleague matchup, I love DeGrom at this price, no matter what team he's playing for. Look for DeGrom to be the difference here and lay the short price; the play is Texas! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
8* play Tigers runline. After an "off" year last year, Eduardo Rodriguez will be looking to bounce back after signing a big contract with the Tigers in 2021. Shane McClanahan was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA last year, but then he got a late shoulder injury. He's 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez was 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts last season. How long can the Rays keep maximizing their efforts with a smaller budget? I think Tampa is a bit overpriced here, but in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I am going to lay the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is the Tigers on the run-line option! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the OVER Braves/Nationals. This pick is based primarily around the fact that I expect the Braves to smash Corbin here. Corbin was 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and I say he's in for a rough start here vs. Atlanta. Max Fried gets the opening night nod for the Braves, and he was 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA last year. Note though, while he's 4-1 in games at Washington, his ERA balloons to an unsightly 5.70 in those contests (meaning that his team has provided him with ample support each time.) Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Giants +170 v. Yankees | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the Giants. The Yankees are FINALLY poised to "get over the hump" this year and advance to the World Series right? Maybe. But maybe not. Everything went right for the Yanks over the first 2/3's of last year, before they started to fall off. Aaron Judge was named the Captain of the team after he signed a monster contract. Cole was 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA for the anks last year. He led the league with 257 K's, but he also had an AL-worst 33 home runs served up. He's 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA vs. the Giants. Logan Webb counters for the talented Giants though. He was 11-3 in 2021, and then 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA last season. He was 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA over his final five starts last year. Opening Day can see a lot of crazy things happen. I just think Webb has the very real potential to steal this game himself; the value here lies in the underdog in my opinion, so the play is the Giants! AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | Phillies v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Astros. Streaks and records come to an end at some point. Both of these starters has been exceptional up to this point, but now on the biggest stage, I'm expecting some minor regression from both. Zach Wheeler is 1-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.73 WHIP for the Phillies so far in the Playoffs, while his counterpart Framber Valdez has been even better at 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. I just think we're going to see a lot of aggressive offensive tactics from both sides here today, especially obviously from the Phillies. I say this O/U line is now just a bit TOO low. Look for these unbelievable offenses to finally crack these starters and look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies +1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -172 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Phillies RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I think the Phillies offer great value here as an underdog at home. I GET that the Astros are a great team. They're experienced and filled with depth. The Phillies are filled with talent and they have their veteran ace on the hill to take care of business. These teams are evenly matched, but "momentum" is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports, and it's one in which I feel that the oddsmakers can at times have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. The Phillies have a clear home field advantage, and I expect them to, at the very least, keep Game 4 competitive throughout. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters and bullpens a "wash" at this point. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Phillies (GOW) Philadelphia did what it set out to do over the first two games in Houston, and that was to earn a "split." The Phillies have enjoyed a home field advantage throughout the Playoffs, and I believe they'll ride the wave of emotion to another big victory here in Game 3 as well. The weather postponed yesterday's game and we have a new starter going for the home side. I say the overall situation favors the home side. Ranger Suarez goes for Philly, and he finished 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA in the regular season, and he's 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. will go again for Houston, he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in the regular season and he's 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in the playoffs. Philadelphia is 5-0 at home, and now the Astros are going to get a little taste of the craziness here at home; while I do think the outright is possible, I also believe we're getting unreal value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace; the play is Philadelphia on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies on the runline in Game 1. While Game 1 flew well "over" the posted number of 6.5, I believe we'll see a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "duel" here in Game 2. Zach Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.51 WHIP so far in the playoffs for the Phillies, while Framber Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA for the Astros. Terrible starts for both starters yesterday, but let's not assume that these two red-hot starters here on Saturday will follow suit. Expect these two "studs" to battle into the latter frames as each sides leans on their starter today, and look for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
10* Phillies RUNLINE (WS GOY) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Philadelphia on the runline option here in Game 1. This Game 1 has the "Any Given Sunday" sort of "feel" to it. The fact that the Astros are in the World Series isn't a shocker, but the Phillies path to this point has been unexpected. They had to fight to make the Wildcard, but since then they've looked unstoppable. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports (especially in the playoffs) and it's one in which I've always felt that the oddsmakers have had a hard time propertly quantifying into a line at times. And that's the case here in my opinion. Aaron Nola has been great on the road all year and he eners with a 2-1, 3.12 ERA playoff record for the Phillies, while Justin Verlander is 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA for the Astros. Verlander got crushed in his last start, while Nola has been solid throughout. Give me the red hot Wheeler and the upstart Phillies to, at the very least, earn the ATS cover on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) With a chance to close out this series and head to the World Series, I like Zach Wheeler and the Phillies to dig deep here and deliver the goods. Yu Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in the playoffs, while Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA. "Very excited. Obviously been pitching on the road, but I'm very excited to pitch here in front of these fans," Wheeler said. "They're happy, they're hungry, and they're excited. So it's going to be a lot of fun." Honestly, these starters are evenly matched, but I'll give the slight nod to Wheeler because of the home field advantage. And right now during the playoffs, that's going to be the difference-maker today. This crowd is going to be electric and I expect Philadelphia to ride the wave of emotion; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Padres v. Phillies -105 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BLOOD-BATH) Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports, and that's especially true in the playoffs. I often find that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying this factor into their process, and that's DEFINITELY the case here in Game 4 in my professional opinion. Despite Bailey Falter having not thrown since October 5th, I still think he has an advantage here over his counterpart Mike Clevinger. Falter went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA in the regular season. He tossed one scoreless inning vs. the Astros back on October 5th. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA during the regular seaosn and he's 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in the playoffs (gave up six hits and five runs over two innings to the Dodgers in his only start.) Even Bob Melvin has his doubts: "We'll see how it goes, take it batter to batter," Melvin said of his starting pitcher tonight. A great price on the surging home side here, so lay the short juice, because the play is indeed on the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOOD-BATH) I had a play on Philadelphia in Game 1, but I passed in Game 2. For Game 3, I'm back on Philly. The Padres evened the series at 1-1 with an 8-5 win in Game 2. Philadelphia actually had a four-run lead in Game 2, but wound up losing. I'd call these starting pitchers a "wash." The Padres hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in the postseason, while Ranger Suarez is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA for the Phillies. In his only start against the Friars this year Suarez gave up just two runs over eight innings and struck out ten. I like Suarez at home and I believe the Phillies will rally at home after the Game 2 loss. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Phillies +116 v. Padres | Top | 2-0 | Win | 116 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (NLCS GOY) These teams are similar in many regards, but I think the Phillies offer great value here as a small underdog. Zach Wheeler is 0-1 with a 2.19 ERA so far in the playoffs. He was 12-7 witha 2.82 ERA in the regular season. The Padres' Yu Darvish is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the post-season and he went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Both pitchers have had plenty of success against their opponent today in the past. Philadelphia's improved bullpen play, combined with their impressive offense in the postseason makes the visitors the correct call here in Game 1 in my opinion; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 113 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies yesterday in their 9-1 victory. Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports. And that's definitely the case in the playoffs. I've often found that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying that factor into their process, and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Charlie Morton finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. Syndergaard pitched one scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 in ATL and he's 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in six career playoff appearances. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in playoff elimination games. However, that was then and this is now. Morton gave up 18 hits and ten runs over his final three regular-season starts. Look for Syndergaard and the Phillies to ride the wave of emotion at home to another series victory! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR on the Phillies. Philadelphia accomplished what it set out to do in Atlanta, and that was to earn a split. This is Philadelphia's first home game so far during the playoffs, having to win two straight in St. Louis to advance. The Phillies look solid and I say they bounce back after their 3-0 loss in Game 2 (note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who finished 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going seven scoreless vs. the Cards in the Wildcard: "We can't wait for it," Nola said of Game 3. "It's going to be electric. It's something special." The Braves could be going with Charlie Morton, who finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA, or Spencer Strider, who finished 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA. Whoever they go with, I give the big nod to a confident Nola at home. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Philly! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS (SPECIAL) Houston took the first game by a score of 8-7. The Mariners allowed five runs over the 8th and 9th inning to lose by 1. They put in Robbie Ray to close out Game 1 and he served up a three run home run instead. As good as Luis Castillo has been for Seattle this season, and in their Wild Card win over the Jays, I believe he and the visiting side are in over their heads now in this game, and in this series. The Mariners had the Astros on the ropes and would have been in the drivers seat, but the meltdown over the final two innings is going to be a massive mental hurdle which I just don't see this team being able to get over quickly enough. And that's the window of opportunity and momentum that this No. 1 AL leading Houston team needs. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. I'm grabbing HOUSTON! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (NLDS TOY) Yesterday's total flew "over" the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday. The Padres look to bounce back and hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in the playoffs so far. He was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Darvish faces his old team with a chip on his shoulder. In four starts against them this year he went 1-2 with a 2.50 ERA spanning 25 innings. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in the regular season. Over two starts this year vs. the Friars he went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Look for these two stud starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SUPER TOTAL) I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here to open things up. Well, I think this total will eclipse this very low number anyways. The Padres managed to get by the Mets in three games and now they turn to Mike Clevingers, the fourth man in their rotation. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, including just 4-4 with a 5.48 ERA on the road. It's difficult to find any flaws in the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA this season and who has a plethora of knowledge and experience to draw upon in this game and series. San Diego plated 16 runs vs. the Mets though, and I think they'll be able to get a few here in Game 1 as well. This number is a little low in my estimation, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Logan Gilbert and the Mariners have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in Game 1 of this ALDS. The Wild Card teams have to blow through the top of their rotation, and then face the ace of their respective opponent in Game 1. Fortunately for the Mariners, they took care of business in two games. Sure, they'd rather have Luis Castillo going here in Game 1, but you can't front on Logan Gilbert, who finished 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this year. Now the good thing for Gilbert and the Mariners here as well, is that he was "lights out" on the road, going 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA. Clearly it won't be cake walk facing Justin Verlander, who was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. It's obviously impossible to say anything negative at all about Verlander, so I won't even bother. But the thing here is, I believe that Gilbert can match his veteran counterpart inning for inning to start with, and in a scenario like that, the value definitely swings to this hungry underdog. And with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, I love how this sets up for the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Mets (NL TOW) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the posted number, but I expect the finale to be a much tighter, lower-scoring "duel" once it's all said and done. The Padres go with Joe Musgrove, who 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA overall and who was 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by the Mets' Chris Bassitt, who finished 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA overall and who was 6-6 with a 2.96 ERA at home. Funny enough, each has been rocked by their respective opponent in the past. Bassitt is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three career starts vs. San Diego, while Musgrove is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in six games vs. New York. But that's a case of that was then, and this is now. These starters enter on top form and I expect them to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Rays +102 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10* RAYS (ASSASSIN) I like Tyler Glasnow and the Rays to bounce back from yesterday's tight 2-1 loss. Tampa's now lost six straight games, but I say that streak of futility finally ends here in the Ray's most important game of the season. Tyler Glasnow was impressive in two starts for Tampa after returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing one run, four hits, two walks and striking out ten over 6 2/3's innings of work. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts vs. the Guardians. The home side counters with Triston McKenzie, who finished 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA this season. He owns a 2.25 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa. Experience matters at this moment though and the Rays have a way of defying the metrics. The Guardians may win this series, but I expect it to go to the full three games; the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Phillies -102 v. Cardinals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOCKBUSTER) The Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the Playoffs in Game 5 of the NLDS by a score of 1-0 back in 2011 and Philadelphia hasn't been back to the postseason since. Until now that is. The old saying that "revenge is a dish best served cold" could not be more apt in this three-game series in my opinion. It's all hands on deck for Philadelphia as it tries to pull off the minor upset here on the road. Zach Wheeler finished 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA for the Phillies. He's 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts vs. the Cards. Miles Mikolas was going to get the call for the Cards, but now Jose Quintana will. He's 6-7 with a 2.93 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. But Philadelphia has all the motivation it needs here and it has the big hitters in the line-up to get the job done. And that's what I expect here in Game 1; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER Rays/Guardians (AL TOW) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here with Shane McClanahan getting the start for the Rays and Shane Bieber getting the nod for the Guardians. The oddsmakers want us to believe that these starters will battle deep into this one, and then these competent bullpens will take over. Tampa averaged 4.11 RPG, while Cleveland averaged 4.31. I'm not buying into this super low total though, despite the level of talent between these starting pitchers. I expect each of these sides to hit their seasonal offensive average and that means that the correct call in Game 1 is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-04-22 | Phillies v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 130 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* ASTROS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Phillies clinched their first playoff spot in over ten years with their 3-0 win last night and I'm expecting an immediate letdown here. The Astros have already clinched and have home field advantage until the World Series, but they'll be anxious to get back on track here after last night's loss. I really like Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez, who is 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA, but I really like the Astros' Justin Verlander even more. Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.80 ERA and is the front runner for the AL Cy Young award. This game now means nothing to Philadelphia, but it sure means a lot to Verlander, who will try to cap off his brilliant campaign with one last brilliant performance. I expect Houston to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin; the play is Houston on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Rays +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
8* RAYS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Yes, the Rays just clinched their fourth straight playoff appearance in yesterday's 7-3 win, but they are still trying to run down home-field advantage in the wild-card round. Even in defeat, the Astros clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Yankees loss on Friday. I say the "letdown" here doesn't come from the Rays, but rather from the Astros, who previously had won nine straight. Shane McClanahan is 12-7 with a 2.51 ERA for the Rays, while Christian Javier is 10-9 with a 2.65 ERA for the Astros. I expect a tight, competitive battle here, and while I do think an outright upset could happen, the best value in my opinion lies in laying the price for the visitors on the runline option; the play is Tampa on the runline! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Mets v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* BRAVES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) For a number of different reasons, I believe the home side is well worth the price of admission here, as I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a critical series, as it will determine the NL East winner. I don't think that you can count out the Braves' experience in this moment. Home field advantage is also another big factor working in ATL's favor. These pitchers are essentially a "wash" as well, which definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Max Scherzer is 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets, while Kyle Wright is 20-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the Braves on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Cubs (NL TOY) The Phillies are desperate to snap a four-game slide. They're coming off back-to-back losses here in Chicago, falling 2-1 and 4-2. Suffice it to say I'm expecting some fireworks here this afternoon at the plate finally (note that Philly has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge B2B road losses against an opponent.) Ranger Suarez is 10-5 with a 3.38 ERA for Phillies, while Javier Assad is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA for the Cubs. "We have to get going," Philadelphia slugger Bryce Harper said last night. "We can't keep saying that, right? We have to actually do it. As a team, as a club, we've got to be better." Both starters have been decent, but this is just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. The overall situation points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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09-28-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona yesterday on the runline and while that play came up short in the Astros 10-2 victory, I look for the visitors to bounce back here with a much better effor with their "ace" on the mound. Arizona will try to play spoiler here, as a win here tonight will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs for the Astros. Justin Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.82 ERA for the Astros, while Zac Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Each enters on top form and I'm expecting a classic "duel" here into the deep innings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-27-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (IL GOW) The Astros are still looking to post the best record in the American League, but I think they'll have their hands full in this interleague matchup. Houston needs just three more wins to lock up home field advantage, but Zach Davies and the D-Backs will look to postpone those arrangements for a bit longer. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA. He's posted 11 straight no-decisions. He's made one start against the Astros though and looked good, conceding two runs off four hits with seven K's over eight innings. Arizon has dropped eight of its last 11, but four of those were one run setbacks. Lance McCullers Jr. is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA for Houston, but he's just 1-1 with a 6.86 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona (and a pedestrian 4-4 wit a 3.85 ERA in all interleague contests.) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Guardians v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (HAMMER BEATDOWN) I think Glenn Otto and the Rangers have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Texas had won two straight over the Angels, before a 6-3 setback here in the opener of this one. And after five straight victories, I expect a small letdown here finally from the visiting side. The Guardians let their guard down here after moving eight games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cal Quantrill is 13-5 with a 3.56 ERA for the Guardians, while Otto is 6-9 with a 4.88 ERA for the Rangers. With the majority of the public money on Cleveland, I'm going contrarian here. That said, the value on the runline option is just too good to turn down. In a contest that I see being extremely competitive, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Baltimore won't be rolling over here. It's in the hunt for a playoff wildcard. It comes in on top form as well, winning three straight. That includes the firt two games of this series, winning 2-0 and 6-0. Sure the Astros would like to get back into the win column, but this is a crucial series for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the hungry Orioles on the runline option. The Orioles have also used just one reliever over the last two games. Mike Baumann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA for the Orioles, while Framber Valdez is 16-5 with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros. I expect another great performance from the Orioles' pitching staff and while I do think another outright is possible, my official call is to grab Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |