Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma v. BYU +24.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 58 m | Show | |
Nobody wants to take BYU these days. The Cougars have been blown out in 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. Stuck on 5 wins, even most BYU fans feel that they no longer have a chance to make a bowl. And now the Cougars take on big bad Oklahoma. All of the above has already been considered and factored into the line. The line on BYU is very high and the Cougars have no pressure on them. Everyone has already counted them out. This is their home finale. They've still got that to play for. The Sooners are only 4-8 against the spread their last 12 as road favorites. They've got bigger games to look forward to. Grab all the points. ***Eye Opener*** |
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11-17-23 | Colorado v. Washington State -4 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
It would have been the hottest ticket in town if these teams faced each other earlier in the season. Colorado was the talk of the league and Washington State was also red hot. Everything changed. Both teams got brought down to size. Both teams will still really want this one though. Each is anxious to get back on track. That will make for a good game. Colorado still gets the hype because of Sanders. The Cougars are at home though and are the superior team. WSU quarterback Cameron Ward took some responsibility for last week's loss after he fumbled three times and had two returned for TDS. (He also threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns.) "I feel like I've grown in ball security, especially these two years once I first got here to Washington State but it showed up again that it's something that I gotta continuously work on. Any time you put your team in a situation like I did, it's hard to fight out of, and we did. We did end up doing that. But we didn't execute enough plays as a whole to win this game." Colorado is only 2-13 its last 15 road games. Ward will clean up the fumbles tonight and he will lead his team to a win and cover! ***pac 12 GOW*** |
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11-17-23 | Celtics v. Raptors +7.5 | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
The Celtics are definitely playing well but they've got a few question marks for tonight. Brown and Porzingis are questionable. Horford is probable but not 100%. Those are 3 important players to this team. Even if all 3 go, they could play at less than their usual potential. Regardless of what lineup the Celtics ultimately settle on, they are going to face a very competitive Toronto team. The Raptors just got blown out by the Bucks. They are 20-14 against the spread their past 34 times they were off a loss of 10 or more points, 21 outright wins. Over the same period, they are 49-42 against the spread in the revenge role, 54-40 against teams with a winning record. Boston is only 30-39 against the spread against losing teams over that time. Both the Celtics losses have come on the road. The Celtics allow 108.7 points on the road and the Raptors allow 108.8 at home. The last time Boston played here, it was a 2-point game. The time before that, it was a 4-point Toronto win. Grab the points! ***Atlantic Div GOY*** |
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11-17-23 | Long Beach State +15.5 v. Michigan | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Michigan looked great in beating St. John's. The Wolverines are absolutely a talented team. They lost a lot from last year though and are dealing with the absence of Juwan Howard. Off the trip to MSG and with some big games coming up after this one, it won't be easy to blow out Long Beach State. Not with the talent, depth and experience that the Beach players have. They hung within 12 at San Diego State, after close games at Depaul and Portland. They will give the Wolverines trouble today! ***Road Warrior*** |
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11-16-23 | Nets v. Heat -3.5 | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Nets won when these teams played at Miami on November 1. It marked the 4th loss in a row for the Heat, who were dealing with some injuries at the time. Since then, the Heat have found their groove. They've won 6 straight games since the Nets were here last. Heat are 22-14 against the spread, last 36, after playing previous 3 on the road. Brooklyn just 19-32 against the spread last 51 after allowing 105 or fewer points. Lay the small number with Miami! ***pick and roll*** |
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11-16-23 | Boston College v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Pittsburgh being favored in game tells us a lot. The Panthers have been bad all season. Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi will have his worst year. So, what are the Panthers doing favored? Boston College is a fraud, that's why! The Eagles were exposed last week. They got outgained by a 600 to 262 yardage mark! That was against Virginia Tech - not a team like Georgia or Michican. Eagles are 3-9 against the spread last 12 times they were off a conf. loss. Narduzzi is 7-3 against the spread last 10 in November. Panthers will play their best game and salvage some price. ***ACC GOM*** |
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11-16-23 | Oklahoma State v. St Bonaventure +3 | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Bonnies will win this game outright, in my opinion. Cowboys are 3-5 against the spread last 8 on a neutral court. Even with a slow start, St. Bonaventure is 9-5 against the spread last 14 in the month of November. 11 outright wins. The Bonnies played in Metro NY last season and had success. That experience will serve them well today. They are much closer to home than the Cowboys. Grab the points! ***Tourney Shocker*** |
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11-16-23 | St. John's -3 v. North Texas | 53-52 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Red Storm weren't ready for Michigan but they will have plenty to take on North Texas. That loss to the Wolverines wasn't fun but it will act as a wake-up AND a warm-up for the Red Storm. They will benefit from the experience. St. John's is 5-1 against the spread last 6 neutral site games, 7-2 against the spread last 9 tournament games. Pitino admitted that it will take time for his team to hit their stride. Behind the scenes he's demanding more. He will have the Red Storm ready and they will bounce back with a win and cover this afternoon. ***tourney takedown |
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11-15-23 | Pacific v. Nevada -12.5 | 41-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Pacific is off a nice upset of Cal. The Tigers are only 5-13 against the spread the past 18 times that they scored 80 or more points though and Nevada is a really tough team. Already 2-0, the WolfPack just beat Washington. The Tigers are also 3-13 against the spread, their last 16 tries as road underdogs of 12.5 to 16 points. Tigers are also still only 9-22 against the spread last 31 against winning teams. Tigers get a nice 5-game homestand after this. First, they take their lumps on the road. ***wednesday wipeout*** |
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11-14-23 | Grizzlies +5 v. Lakers | 107-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
With a cover tonight, the Grizzlies will improve to 33-17 against the spread their last 50 times up against Pacific Division opponents. They upset the Clippers last game. It seems that Davis and Lebron are permanently probable/questionable/doubtful but the Lakers do have a revenge game against Sacramento on Wednesday. Its not impossible to imagine Lebron missing tonight, after he missed last game (his first) with a calf contusion. Though still without Morant, the Grizzlies are coming together. They will surprise the Lakers tonight. ***western conf. wipeout*** |
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11-14-23 | North Dakota State v. UC-Davis -3.5 | 53-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
The Aggies are 0-2 against the spread so far but they will fix that today. UC Davis has strong guard play. A lack of size in the frontcourt won't hurt them against a North Dakota State team which is off an 89-60 loss. In lined games, the Bison are 4-9 against the spread the last 13 times after they allowed 80 or more points. They are also 8-14 against the spread in non-conf action and 3-6 in tournament play. Lay the small number! ***Tourney Dominator*** |
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11-13-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. UTEP -2.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Everything worked out for the Gauchos last year. They set school records and went back to the NCAA Tournament. They've got a good program. The Gauchos lost quite a lot from last year though and it will take time for the newcomers to gel. That showed itself in their opening game upset loss against Portland State. The Miners are excited about their team. They crushed their first 2 opponents and will rise to the occasion of hosting a team that went to the Big Dance last year. Gauchos are only 4-6 against the spread last 10 as underdogs. Lay the small number. ***Slam Dunk Club*** |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Denver showed up to the wrong party. The Broncos have shown some signs of life. But their season is still done. The Bills are angry from their loss at Cincinnati. They're 4-0 straight-up at home. The Bills score 26.7 points a game. The Broncos score 21.5. The Bills allow only 17.8 points a game. The Broncos allow 28.3. Better on both sides of the ball and playing at home, Buffalo will blow out the Broncos and make a statement on National TV. ***MNF MasterClass*** |
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11-12-23 | Thunder v. Suns -2.5 | 111-99 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Suns have handled the Thunder here and they blew them out the last meeting on this floor. Though Booker is doubtful, Beal is probable. This game is projected to be high-scoring, total of 235, and those are the kind of games that suit the Suns well. The Suns are 28-12 straight-up and 25-15 against the spread the past 40 times that they played a game with a total listed at 230 or more. Only previous time this season was an opening game win against the Warriors. Suns wins. ***western conf. wipeout |
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11-12-23 | Lions v. Chargers +3 | Top | 41-38 | Push | 0 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
If you look at the points scored and allowed, the overall numbers are pretty close. Both teams score the same amount of points. The Chargers allow about 1 more point per game. Detroit does come in fresh, as last week was a bye. The Chargers are playing their best football now though and the Lions are playing thousands of miles away from home. They were obliterated their last road game. The Charger defense has especially improved of late. They will keep rolling and pull off the upset this afternoon! ***Non-Conf GOM |
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11-11-23 | Air Force v. Hawaii +20 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Air Force just blew its undefeated season with a 23-3 loss to Army last week. Off that disappointing result and now having traveled thousands of miles, it will be hard to get up for this game. Having a big game against UNLV up next makes things even more challenging. The Warriors are off a 27-14 win and feeling better about themselves. Warriors are now 6-2-1 against the spread their last nine November games. They will provide a tough test for the Falcons tonight. ***MWC GOW |
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11-11-23 | Vanderbilt +14 v. South Carolina | 6-47 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt has a pretty bad against the spread record this season. That's not exactly a secret. That bad record means that many bettors are sick of losing with the Commodores and that they don't trust betting on them. The books know this. Safe with the knowledge that they're still going to get South Carolina backers at any line, they can jack the line up a little higher than it really should be. That's where the value with Vanderbilt comes in. The Commodores lost by only 1 point as 19 point underdogs their last visit here. They also gave the Gamecocks a good fight last year. South Carolina only has 3 wins. Two were by 10 or less and the other was against Furman. Grab the points. ***Saturday Shocker |
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11-10-23 | North Texas +20 v. SMU | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The line has climbed and we're getting a lot of points with a very competitive North Texas team. Since a bad loss back in Week 1, before they really got their feet on the ground, the Mean Green have been in every game. Since that Week 1 loss, their other 5 losses have all come by 8 points or less. They could easily have won some of those and are better than their record indicates. After some big wins, the Mustangs had trouble with Rice last game, winning by only 5. The Mean Green aren't as good as SMU on defense. They do score 34.8 points a game though and have shown that they can keep up with just about anyone. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 road games and that includes a 2-0 against the spread record as road underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points. Overall, they are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 tries as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Better yet, the Mean Green are 8-1 against the spread the past 9 times that they were off a conference loss. With a big game at Memphis on deck, SMU could be looking ahead. Give me the points! ***AAC GOY |
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11-10-23 | Hornets +3 v. Wizards | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Turnabout is fair play. The Wizards just beat the Hornets in Charlotte. Now, the Hornets will beat the Wizards in Washington. The Wizards are only 23-33 against the spread, when laying points, the last 2 years. Hornets 2-1 ATS on the road and a respectable 45-38 (better than 54% and much better than their home against the spread statistics) Over that time, the Wizards have only 1 win in 9 tries, after scoring 130 or more points. Today, the Hornets will settle the score! ***NBA Road Warrior |
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11-10-23 | Texas A&M v. Ohio State -1.5 | 73-66 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Big Game and big opportunity for the Buckeyes. They are at home with a chance to take down a top 15 program. Off a close win in the first game, Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann commented: "I give our guys a ton of credit. They found a way to get some stops and make some necessary plays down the stretch in a game that could've gone either way." The Buckeye players are ready and excited for today. Zed Key: "...I know we are all looking forward to playing such a big game this early in the season. Be there on Friday." Bruce Thornton: "You look for those big games. That's one of the reasons we came to Ohio State, to play a top-15 team in the country (at home). I'm ready for Friday." Thornton and Key combined with Gayle Jr. for 51 points in the Buckeyes first game. Catching the Aggies, 13-23 against the spead their last 36 as road underdogs of 3 or less, playing their first road game, that trio will lead the Buckeyes to a victory tonight. ** |
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11-09-23 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 124-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Both teams won last night. The Bucks won a close one and the Pacers won a blowout. Milwaukee is better suited to play two games in two days. The Bucks' only against the spread victory came the only previous time that they played the second back-to-back games. The Pacers lost outright to Charlotte when they previously played the second of back-to-back games this season. It's only November 9th but this will already be Indiana's 6th game this month. The Bucks have played one less this month and this season. In this back-to-back situation, that extra game will contribute to Indiana's tired legs. The Bucks are 6-2 against the spread their last 8 against the Pacers, a perfect 4-0 in games played at Indiana. Go Bucks! ***Central Div GOY |
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11-09-23 | James Madison v. Kent State -3.5 | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
James Madison somehow managed to knock off Michigan State in its opening game. Off that upset, the Dukes are walking into a hornet's next. With a 79-58 win in their home opener, the Golden Flashes extended their home game winning streak at home to 23 in a row. The Flashes are 17-7-1 against the spread when playing a game with a total in the 140 to 149.5 range, 5-1 against the spread in home games with a total of 145 to 149.5. They are also a perfect 4-0 against the number when favored at home between 3.5 and 6 points. James Madison showed it can play with anyone but tonight will belong to Kent State. ***MAC-SBC CHALLENGE WINNER! |
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11-08-23 | Blazers v. Kings -8 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Kings are the much better team and they will blow out the TrailBlazers tonight. They beat Portland 138-114 last meeting and 120-80 the previous meeting. The one before that was a 17-point win for Sacramento. Portland is a terrible 43-68 against the spread in the underdog role the last 2 years. Kings are 18-7 against the spread their last 25 times that they were off 3 or more losses in a row. Sacramento in a blowout! ***western conf. GOW |
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11-07-23 | Northern Iowa v. North Texas -4.5 | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Over the past 2 seasons, North Texas is 2-0 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Mean Green have won 27 or their last 32 home games. An excellent defensive team, North Texas allowed just 53 points a game at home last season! Northern Iowa gave up 71.6 points per game on the road! Last 2 years, Northern Iowa is just 6-13 against the spread in non-conference lined games. Lay the points! ***CBB dominator |
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11-07-23 | Central Michigan +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
I am grabbing the points with Central Michigan. The Chippewas scored 37 points to beat Northern Illinois in their last game. They've won four of their last 6. The Broncos are also off a win. Each of their previous wins has been followed by a bad loss and a 3-game losing streak. Western Michigan is bad defensively. The Broncos allow 32.8 points a game. That's tied with Kent State for the most points allowed per game in the MAC. The Chippewas won 42-30 the last time they played here. They're 6-2 against the spread their last 8 games in November and 10-4 against the spread the last 14 times that they were underdogs. They still need to win to become bowl eligible but Western Michigan realistically gave up dreaming about a bowl weeks ago. Go CMU! ***mac GOY |
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11-06-23 | Kings +1 v. Rockets | 97-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
The Kings struggled without Fox when these teams recently met. They've got enough to overcome his absence tonight. Davian Mitchell will draw the start again. They won't loss two in a row to the Rockets. Kings are 18-10 against the spread last 28, off an upset loss as a favorite. Rockets are 7-13-1 against the spread (3-18 money-line) after allowing 105 or less. Kings will have their revenge! ***nba road warrior |
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11-06-23 | Towson v. Colorado -14.5 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
The Buffaloes have struggled to cover as favorites the last couple of seasons. The Tigers have been good at covering as underdogs. Things will change for at least today. Towson lost some important pieces. Cam Holden graduated and Nicolas Timberlake transferred to Kansas. The duo, which combined for more than 32 points per game, will be missed against a tough opponent like Colorado. The Buffaloes are for real. Deep and talented, this is one of Coach Boyle's best teams. The Buffaloes will begin their year with a big win which will bring them to 23-13-2 against the spread as -12.5 to -15 point home favorites. **Opening Day Rout |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles -3 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
Big battle in Philadelphia! This is a heated rivalry and both teams come in hot. The Eagles have the significant advantage of playing at home. They're 3-0 here. Dallas is 2-2 on the road. The home team won both meetings last year. Cowboys by 6 at Dallas. Eagles by 9 at Philadelphia. The Cowboys are good at beating on the weak and mediocre teams. The last time they played a team currently with a winning record, they got destroyed! Heck, this team even lost by 12 at Arizona! The Eagles lost a close one against a really good Jets defense but otherwise have had no such slip-ups. Last time they took on a top level team, they throttled Miami. This season's seven wins have come by an average of more than eight points. Six of the wins were by 5 or more points and all 6 came by at least a field goal. Lay the points with the Eagles! ***nfc east goy |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -1 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 50 h 28 m | Show | |
The Frankfurt fans get treated to a good one as both these division leaders are sitting at 6-2. Two very capable offenses but only one team which combines that with a great defense. Miami allows 25.5 points per game. Kansas City allows 16.1 points per game. The Dolphins have dominated as favorites but are only 1-2 against the spread when they find themselves in the underdog role. The Chiefs thrive in these type of games. They're 10-3 against the number the past 13 times that they played a game where the pointspread ranged from plus 3 to minus 3. They'll be the first AFC team to reach seven wins this season. ***early-bird |
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11-04-23 | UCLA -2.5 v. Arizona | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
The Bruins have been waiting for this game as they have a score to settle. Last year, the Wildcats came to Pasadena and scored a major upset. The Bruins were ranked #12 at the time and the loss effectively eliminated any chance that they might make the College Playoff. This year's Bruins are arguably better on both sides of the ball. Arizona has a reasonably good defense but UCLA's defense is on another level. The Wildcats allow 21 points a game. The Bruins allow 15 points a game. Arizona allows 342.1 yards a game. UCLA allows an average of only 277 yards a game! On offense, UCLA averages 467.4 yards a game. Arizona averages 441.4 yards. The Bruins are a dominant 7-1 against the spread the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites. Their superior defense will be the difference. ***pac 12 goy |
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11-04-23 | Hornets +3.5 v. Pacers | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
The Hornets have had 2 days off. They're coming in fresh. Expect a big game from Charlotte's frontline of Mark Williams and P.J. Washington against an Indiana team involved in a back-to-back spot. Recent games between these clubs have been close. Charlotte won the last by 6, an outright win as an underdog. With that result, the Hornets improved to 5-1 against the spread their past 6 against the Pacers. Give me the points. ***road warrior |
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11-04-23 | Ohio State -18.5 v. Rutgers | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rutgers has been brilliant against the spread this season. But the Knights aren't built to come back. They'll fall behind the more talented and more athletic Buckeyes. Then, they'll be taken out of their game-plan. That happens to them against vastly superior opposition. They are 0-9 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread the past 9 times they were getting 10.5 to 21 points. They're 3-7 against the spread last 10 as home underdogs of 17.5 to 21 points. Ohio State is 9-0 all-time against Rutgers. No game has been closer. 49-10 last year. 52-13 last time at Rutgers. As they always do, the Buckeyes will throttle this team. ***road warrior |
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11-03-23 | Colorado State v. Wyoming -5.5 | Top | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home than they are on the road. They've won all five at home but lost all three on the road. Those road games came at Boise, Air Force and Texas. None of those are easy places to win. Off consecutive road games, the Cowboys will be thrilled to be back home! They've beaten some decent teams here, including Texas Tech, App State and Fresno State. They will have no trouble disposing of a weak CSU club. I did back the Rams against UNLV but they've followed that up by getting crushed. They won't be ready for this difficult venue! The Cowboys won by 14 points last time they hosted CSU and by 10 before that. They win big again tonight! ***mwc gom |
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11-03-23 | Cavs -2 v. Pacers | Top | 116-121 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is what I said before Cleveland's last game: "The Knicks beat up on the Cavaliers last night in Cleveland. As they say, turnabout is fair play. With a chance to immediately right that wrong, the Cavaliers will elevate their intensity for the rematch ... They start the new month with an upset." Sure enough. The Cavaliers delivered me an upset victory, holding NY to 89 points. Once again, they get an early chance to exact some revenge against a team which has already beaten them. The Pacers caught them in a back-to-back situation the first game but that's not happening this time. The Cavaliers won by 19 last time they were on this floor and they'll win again tonight! ***eastern conf gow |
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11-02-23 | Canucks v. Sharks +1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
The Canucks are near the top of the Pacific Division. The Sharks are in the basement. The Sharks are definitely in for a long season. They're still going to fight hard when hosting a division rival though. Their poor record allows us the opportunity to get an extra +1.5 goals. The Canucks' last three visits here have ALL been tied after regulation. Final scores were 6-5, 4-3 and 5-4. Vancouver won them all but none by more than a goal. This will likely be another close one. ***puck-line club |
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11-02-23 | Spurs v. Suns -8 | Top | 132-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a bad spot for the Spurs. They just stunned the Suns a couple of days ago. The Suns let them hang around and the Spurs took advantage with a last second victory. Rest assured, the Suns won't make the same mistake twice. It's a new month and these teams are going to go in opposite directions, starting tonight. The Spurs were 10-18 against the spread the past two Novembers, winning only five games straight-up. The Suns were 20-11 against the spread the past two Novembers, 26 of those resulting in outright victories. The Suns have been at their best off an upset loss the last 2 years. They're 21-11 against the spread in that situation. Expect a decisive victory! ***nov gom |
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11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Much of the talk will focus on the quarterbacks. That's obviously important. Things like the Steelers getting back Cameron Heyward are also very important but will be mostly glossed over. He makes their run defense better. TJ Watt said this: "He's a difference-maker. He really is. He's been doing it for a long time. A guy that's played in this matchup more than a few times himself, and anytime you can plug in a player like him, it's going to make a difference, no matter what." Back to the QB's. The Titans' rookie had a big debut but he will find things more difficult on a short week, on the road, at Pittsburgh. The Titans are only 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games against teams from the AFC North. The Steelers are 13-6-1 against the spread the past 20 times that the played with a line ranging from +3 to -3. The Steelers are also 4-0 their last four against against the Titans. They continue their Tennessee dominance tonight! ***tnf goy |
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11-02-23 | South Alabama +4.5 v. Troy | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This was a game which South Alabama had circled as soon as the schedule game out. The Trojans have owned the "Battle Of The Belt" rivalry for five years and the Jaguars are determined to put an end to that. This is an experience South Alabama team. They aren't where they want to be but a win here will go a long way. Don't forget that they went on the road and won 33-7 at Oklahoma State. The Jaguars score 33.5 points a game. The Trojans score 27.1. The Trojans are 0-2 against the spread when playing a home game with a total in the 42.5-49 point range. They are only 7-14 against the spread their last 21 in that situation. Last year's game was close the whole way. Give me the points! ***sun belt gom |
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11-01-23 | Cavs +6.5 v. Knicks | 95-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
The Knicks beat up on the Cavaliers last night in Cleveland. As they say, turnabout is fair play. With a chance to immediately right that wrong, the Cavaliers will elevate their intensity for the rematch. The Knicks lost their only home game this year and are just 38-47-3 ATS here the past two seasons. The Cavaliers, who won this year's only road game, were 18-9-3 ATS the past two Novembers. They start the new month with an upset. ***road warrior |
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10-29-23 | Saints -2 v. Colts | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
The Colts and Saints each endured tough losses in their last game. They've now each dropped two in a row. The Saints are in better position to get back on the winning track. Indianapolis QB Minshew has turned the ball over 8 times in his past 2 starts. New Orleans Derek Carr hasn't been perfect but I'll gladly take him over Minshew. Carr: "We're getting better and we're going to be OK. But there's no more time. The emphasis is on now. We have a lot of hope and encouragement, but we do feel the pressure to get a win." Benefitting from a few extra days in between games, New Orleans responds to the pressure with a victory. *Road Warrior |
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10-28-23 | 76ers -4 v. Raptors | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Raptors fought really hard only to lose by a point to the Bulls last night. It was a game that they had seemingly locked up. Blowing the lead will hurt their play today. Philadelphia rested. The 76'ers won the last three meetings. Last game in Canada resulted in a 112-90 victory for the visiting 76'ers. The 76'ers are 91-34 from a straight-up perspective the past 125 times that they were favored. They're more talented than the Raptors and they'll have much fresher legs. With their coach looking to get back at his former team, the 76'er will improve on that record while also covering the pointspread. *Atlantic Div GOM |
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10-28-23 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -6.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
On a losing streak, the Bulldogs are exactly who the Tigers want to see. Auburn has dominated the Mississippi State in games here. Last time here, the Tigers won by 9. The previous game here, the Tigers won by 23. The game before that, the Tigers won by 39. Before that, they won by 8. The common theme is Auburn home wins of greater than a touchdown. Tigers are 18-12 against the spread the last 30x they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points. Bulldogs pulled off an upset last week but are still only 1-3 ATS as underdogs. Playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season will showcase their weaknesses. Last week's scores might say otherwise but the Tigers boast the better defense. They'll win this game by more than a touchdown. *SEC GOY |
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10-28-23 | West Virginia +7 v. Central Florida | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
Grabbing all the points with the Mountaineers. The Knights gave it everything they had last week but fell just short. That's a tough pill to swallow. Knights are 1-6 against the spread their last 7 tries as home favorites falling in the 3.5 to 10 range. They've lost four straight. WVU's last 2 road games were both decided by 3 or fewer points, a 2-point loss at Houston and a 3-point win at TCU. UCF coach Malzahn knows that the Mountaineers are going to be tough: "They are No. 7 in the country in time of possession. They run the football, they get off the field, and they are good on third down. They're No. 15 in the country in penalties, so they are a disciplined team." Let's go WVU. *Road Warrior |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Rangers | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Give me the extra +1.5 runs with Gallen and the visitors. Gallen held the Rangers to one run through 6 innings back in January. He struck out 11. Arizona won 6-3. He's allowed 3 runs or less in all 3 starts versus Texas. Eovaldi is tough but he's not unhittable. His season-long numbers are very similar to Gallen's. His first starts in the Houston series resulted in a 1-run game. These playoffs have shown us that homefield doesn't always amount to an advantage. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. *WS GM 1 Dominator. |
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10-27-23 | Sabres +1.5 v. Devils | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
An extra +1.5 goals is the way to go on Friday night in New Jersey. The Sabres are 3-3 last 6 with 2 of the losses coming by 1 goal. The Devils have played five 1-goal games in their last 7. Five of 10 meetings in the series were 1-goal games. Sabres off a 6-4 win. The Devils off a 6-4 loss and the Sabres are 5-0 against the money-line in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Go with Buffalo on the puck-line. *GOW |
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10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
We played against the Lakers in their Opening Night loss. That was at Denver, Jokic and the defending champions were getting their rings. A home game against a Suns team expected to be without Beal is a different story. Phoenix is only 30-41 ATS last 71 after allowing 105 points or less. Lakers beat the Suns by 14 last meeting here. The home team won all four meetings by double-figures. Lebron and the Lakers get it done in front of the home fans. *Western Conf. GOM |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills -9 | 18-24 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
These teams are on different levels. Every team has had a bad game or two. Buffalo included. The Bills are still a Super Bowl contender. The Bucs can't say the same thing. Tampa is pretty solid on defense. Buffalo is even better. On the offensive side, the Bucs are terrible and the Bills are great. Buffalo averages 28.3 points. Tampa averages 17.2. Speaking of the offense, Josh Allen is 5-0 on Thursday Night Football and he's got a passer rating of 107.7 in those five games! The Bucs, 2-11 ATS their last 13 Thursday games, are only 2-7 ATS their last nine as underdogs. Bills are 10-2 straight-up their last 12 against NFC teams. They'll move to 11-2 by blowing out the Buccaneers on Thursday night. *Hot Route |
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10-25-23 | Wizards v. Pacers -7 | Top | 120-143 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The Pacers haven't won a season opener since 2020. That changes this evening. The Wizards beat the Pacers here in last year''s opener. This year, Washington has gone through a major rebuild and won't be ready to compete the entire way with Indiana in this one. Wizards only 34-45-3 ATS last 82 on the road. Pacers lost the opener against the Wizards but are still 36-14 SU the last 50 meetings and they won by 10 the last time they hosted the Wizards. I've got them taking advantage of the favorable matchup and winning this one by at least that many. *Eastern Conf GOM |
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10-24-23 | Bruins v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
"Chicago got the Conor Bedard era started out on the right foot. He's going to be a special player. The Hawks will go through some growing pains this season though. Those growing pains will be evident when playing two games in two nights against a very good team like the Bruins. Last meeting here in Boston resulted in a 6-1 win for the Bruins. With that victory, the Bruins are 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Hawks. They'll start their season with another big win tonight. Lay the -1.5 goals on the puck-line." Things are different this time. The Hawks are at home and are not playing their second game in 2 nights. They've got some games under their belts. The Bruins are playing the 4th leg of a road trip. Chicago played hard in the first loss. It took an empty net goal for Boston to win by 2. Bruins last 3 visits here have resulted in one Chicago victory and two Boston 1-goal wins. Grab the +1.5 goals on the puck-line. *Original 6 Showdown |
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10-24-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
The Nuggets will be raising their championship banner and getting their championship rings and will not let the Lakers come in and spoil the party. When handing out championship rings, teams are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last last ten years. Though they may lack some depth, the Nuggets starting five is very strong. The Lakers have a lot of new faces. They should be competitive this season but they won't be ready to compete with Jokic and the champions tonight. The Nuggets are 68-27 at home the past 2 years. They pull away down the stretch for a big win. *TNT Thunder |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings +7 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Really like that the division-leading Lions got crushed yesterday. Combine that with the Packer loss and the Vikings should have a little boost. A win tonight now has them with the second most wins in the division and with the Lions looking vulnerable. San Francisco is good but not invincible. The 49'ers are off a tough loss. They're dealing wih the injuries and playing their second straight on the road. The Vikings are off a win, their second in three games. The lone loss came by a touchdown against the Chiefs. Since a bad New Year's Day loss at Lambeau, the Vikings have played eight games. None of those eight games resulted in a loss of more than 7 points. One big Minnesota win and another Minnesota win by eight points. The other six were all decided by seven or less. Give me the points. |
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10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos +1.5 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The wins haven't come but the Broncos have shown signs of life. My feeling is that they will break through with a victory this afternoon. The Packers are off back-to-back losses and have dropped three of four. The only win was by a single point. Green Bay coach La Fleur summed it up: "It's just a lot of inconsistent play. It's been very choppy. We haven't been able to get into a consistent rhythm." Wilson has an 0-4 record (54.3 QB rating) at Lambeau but he's 3-0 with a 107.6 QB rating against the Packers at home. Broncos win. *Non-Conf GOW |
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10-22-23 | Falcons +2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-13 | Win | 101 | 125 h 6 m | Show |
The Atlanta offense is showing real signs of life and we can expect Desmond Ridder to pick up his first road win. The result was disappointing but the Falcons dominated time of possession and racked up more than 400 yards against Washington. They had a 25-12 edge in first downs and outgained the Commanders 402-193! They also statistically dominated Houston the previous game. My feeling is that Atlanta is a team on the rise and that Tampa is likely going the other way. The Bucs got dominated last game and their only home win was against the Bears. Tampa is 2-5-1 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of a field goal or less. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS its last four as a road underdog of a field goal or less. Grab the points. *NFC South GOY |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State +8 v. UNLV | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
The Rebels have been lining the pockets of bettors this season. That comes to an end Saturday. UNLV's ATS success has led to us getting extra line value with Colorado State. The Rams have beaten UNLV four straight times. They're 17-3 the past 20 meetings. Two of those three Rebel wins were by only a field goal. Not only is this always a difficult opponent for the Rebels but this is also a challenging scheduling spot. They just beat instate rival Nevada and they've got a big showdown against Fresno State up next. That game is a big deal due to both teams having such strong records. The Rams have won 3 of 4 and just beat Boise last game. Rebels 3-6-1 ATS last 10 as a home fav in the -7.5 to -10 range. Give me the points. *MWC GOY |
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10-21-23 | Baylor +3 v. Cincinnati | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 78 h 48 m | Show | |
Catching points with the superior team in this one. Baylor's only road game resulted in an outright win at UCF. Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of three or less and 1-4 ATS its past five when the line fell in the +3 to -3 range. Baylor is 10-5 ATS its last 15 as an underdog, 4-1 ATS its last five as a road underdog of three or less. All four covers were outright wins. Cincinnati has last four straight and is 0-4 ATS its last four when off a conference loss. Grab the points. *Eye Opener |
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10-18-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Two of Houston's last three games were decided by 1 run. Javier excelled (0.00 ERA, 9 K's) in his lone 2023 postseason appearance. He's 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in his playoff career. Scherzer is an all-time great but he hasn't pitched in some time. His career postseason stats (7-7, 3.58 ERA) are rather mediocre. He also got destroyed by the Astros just over a month ago. Five of Javier's last eight starts versus Texas have been 1-run games, including each of the last two. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. |
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10-17-23 | Southern Miss +18 v. South Alabama | 3-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Though I respect South Alabama, I can't pass up grabbing all the points with the visiting Golden Eagles. USM was winning into the fourth quarter of last year's game and lost by 7. With the exception of a blowout loss at Florida State, no team has beaten Southern Miss by more than 18. The other four losses have come by an average of less than 11. The Jaguars haven't impressed in their two games. They lost outright against CMU and they beat an FCS opponent, Southeastern Louisiana, by 18. That game was tied at halftime. The Jaguars only 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference victory. Give me USM. |
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10-16-23 | Panthers +1.5 v. Devils | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
I've picked on the Panthers so far, playing against them in each of their two losses. I've pointed out that they're missing a couple of defensemen. Now, I will reverse my position. This is still a good Florida team. The two losses are going to make the Panthers hungry. They don't want to start the season 0-3. They're 4-1 their last five visits here, 2-0 the last two. The Devils have played two games and both were decided by one goal. Grab the +1.5 goals. *Puck-Line Club |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 144 h 28 m | Show |
I wasn't at all surprised that the Bengals beat Arizona last week. It was a break-out game for Burrow, Chase and the Bengal offense. On the other side, the defense also elevated its play. Cincinnati will carry that confidence into Sunday afternoon's home game against Seattle. The Seahawks are off a bye. That's not always helpful! The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS their last 2 off a bye. Long-term? They're 12-23 ATS with a push, the last 36 times they were off a bye. Even off the bye, the Hawks aren't entirely healthy. The Bengals have won 15 of their last 21 home games and we don't have to worry about laying a big number. Arizona was a losing team but the Bengals are also 16-4 straight-up and 15-5 against the spread against winning teams. They''ll get back to .500 and add to those stats Sunday afternoon. *NFL GOY |
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10-15-23 | Saints -1.5 v. Texans | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 55 m | Show | |
In my opinion, the Saints are legit. They humiliated Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The 34-0 shellacking was the worst home loss, under Belichick. The defense was stellar, as it has been all season. Carr was clicking and Kamara found the end zone. That formula will serve them well against Houston. The Texans have had two big wins but they've also had two double-digit losses. They lost a close one at Atlanta last game. Now they are back home where they are only 3-15-1 their last 19. The Saints defense, better against both the run and the pass and allowing just 15 points per game, will be the difference. *Road Warrior |
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10-14-23 | UCLA +4 v. Oregon State | Top | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Grabbing points with the Bruins. The Beavers are a good team and I know they've got a great home record. UCLA remains under-rated though. The Beavers allow 19.7 points each game. OSU has given up 38 or more points in two of their last three games.The Bruins only allow 12.2. No team has scored more than 17 against them. That makes it difficult to beat the Bruins by more than a field goal. Grab the points with the better defense! *Pac 12 GOM |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State -5.5 v. Utah State | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
I feel that Fresno State is a far stronger team than Utah State. Both teams score but the Bulldogs also prevent teams from scoring. They allow an average of 18.2 points each game. The Aggies give up 32.2 points per game, a full extra two touchdowns. The Bulldogs have covered six of the past 10 as road favorites. A well-coached team, the Bulldogs are also 3-0 against the spread the past three times they were off a conference loss. They'll win this game by a touchdown or more. *MWC GOW |
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10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs go 3-7 against the spread in Week 5 to Week 9. KC will have its hands full. The loss to the Jets was costly but Denver has shown signs of life in back-to-back games. As bad as the Broncos record is, they've been competitive in every game but one. The loss to Miami was ugly but the all four of the other games were decided by 10 or less, three of them by three or less. The Chiefs have also been playing close games. They messed up Chicago but their other four games were all decided by eight points or less. Four of the past five meetings were decided by six or less including each of the past three. This will be another close one. Grab all those points! *Thursday Night Football GOM |
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10-11-23 | Blackhawks v. Bruins -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Chicago got the Conor Bedard era started out on the right foot. He's going to be a special player. The Hawks will go through some growing pains this season though. Those growing pains will be evident when playing two games in two nights against a very good team like the Bruins. Last meeting here in Boston resulted in a 6-1 win for the Bruins. With that victory, the Bruins are 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Hawks. They'll start their season with another big win tonight. Lay the -1.5 goals on the puck-line. *Original 6 Showdown |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders -1.5 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
I was against the Raiders last week, when they lost their road game versus the Chargers. At home against a Green Bay team which looked terrible last week, Las Vegas will achieve a more favorable result. I happily cashed my ticket against them but the Raiders did some things that impressed me. They finished the game with more first downs (22-16) than the Chargers, as well as an advantage in terms of time of possession. That was with a rookie, making his first start at QB. Now the Raiders get Garoppolo back. Jimmy said this: "Feeling good. I think we're in a good spot. We had a good practice out there, had a good rhythm and a good tempo to us." Remember that Garoppolo has former Packer Davante Adams to throw to and that the star receiver tends to thrive under the national spotlight. Facing his old team, don't be surprised when Adams becomes the first player in NFL history to go over 100 receiving yards five times in a row on Monday night. That will pave the way to a Raider victory. *MNF GOM |
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10-09-23 | Ottawa +6.5 v. Montreal | 3-29 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
In a rematch of last week's game at Ottawa, I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded Redblacks. Prior to Montreal's win last week, the previous four meetings (and six of the previous seven) between these teams had each been decided by 7 points or less. Ottawa has played very well here the past few years. In fact, they're 11-1 ATS their last 12 visits here. They don't want to get swept in the season seres and will be fighting with everything they've got. Grab the points. *Bone-Crusher |
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10-08-23 | Bengals -3 v. Cardinals | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Are the Bengals as bad as they've looked? Are the Cardinals as good as they've looked? My answer to both questions is "No." It's my belief that those answers will become clear this afternoon and that the Bengals will take advantage of a less talented opponent. They didn't show it at Tennessee last week but the Bengals have been true road warriors. They're 17-7 ATS their last 24 away from Cincinnati, 4-2 ATS as road favorites. Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. Lay the small number. *Road Warrior |
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10-08-23 | Liberty v. Aces -4 | Top | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
The two best teams meet again. New York has taken three of the past four meetings dating back to a memorable 99-61 blowout back in early August. The Aces are still the class of the league though. They won by 13 the last time that the teams played here in Vegas. They're 19-1 on this floor. Liberty are 2-10 ATS their last 12 road games against the Aces. Vegas is 4-1 ATS the last 5 times it played with 3 or more day's rest. All 10 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than 5 points. Most were blowouts. So, I'm not going to worry about laying this small number. *WNBA Playoff GOY |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 148 h 7 m | Show |
Baltimore crushed Cleveland last week. Pittsburgh got pounded by Houston. So, why play on the Steelers? The NFL is a funny league and it's important not to over-react to the previous week's games. It's also important to understand that those results are helping to get us some extra points with Pittsburgh. The fact is that the Ravens are now playing their second straight divisional road game and third divisional road game in the past four weeks. Their injuries are mounting, too. Even with the win over the Browns, they're still an awful 9-17 ATS their last 26 as favorites. After their previous divisional road win, the Ravens lost outright to the Colts in their next game. The Steelers are 15-10 ATS as underdogs, during the same time period. Tomlin's team responded to it first loss by bouncing back with an upset of a divisional rival. The plan is for Pittsburgh to win this game outright. Getting points in this rivalry is always nice though. The last four meetings were all decided by three or less! The last six meetings were all decided by five or less. In what will likely be another close encounter, grab the points. *AFC North GOY |
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10-07-23 | TCU -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 16 m | Show |
This game is essentially a must win for the Horned Frogs, if they want to stay in the hunt in the Big 12. For such a situation, the Frogs draw the perfect opponent. The Cyclones had a really good defense last year. TCU still dropped 62 points on them! This year's Iowa State defense isn't nearly as talented. The offense is punchless, too. Remember that the Cyclones got hit by scandal before the season. That's had a negative impact on them. The Frogs have had trouble here in the past but that will change Saturday. TCU still has a talented defense. In four games since the Colorado debacle, the Frogs are allowing an average of 15 points. ISU will have trouble scoring. TCU (34.8 ppg) should have no problem doing so. The Cyclones were shredded for 50 points and more than 500 yards last week. They're now 2-6-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs. The Frogs, 5-1-1 ATS their last seven as road favorites, will be too much for their hosts. A motivated TCU team puts it all together and wins by double-digits. *Big 12 GOY |
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10-07-23 | Old Dominion v. Southern Miss -1.5 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 56 m | Show | |
Things haven't gone well for the Golden Eagles but this is an OId Dominion team which they can handle. They may have struggled in the underdog role but the Golden Eagles are 7-3 ATS, 8-2 SU the last 10 times that they were favored. ODU is 4-8 ATS last 12 times line ranged from -3 to +3. The Monarchs are just 9-25 their last 34 games in the month of October. This is not a strong ODU team. Now in the Sun Belt, the Golden Eagles and Monarchs met twice when they were in CUSA. The home team won both. The home team will win again on Saturday. |
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10-06-23 | Edmonton Elks +8.5 v. Toronto | Top | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The record isn't there but Edmonton has played much better than many people realize. Since their tough start, the Elks have won 4 of their last 7 games, a streak which coincides with Tre Ford taking over at QB. The 3 losses all came by single digits. Their last 3 road games have resulted in 2 outright wins and a 4-point loss. QB Ford, who ranks among the CFL leaders in terms of passing accuracy (70.1%), QB rating (108.7) and rushing yards (514), has been a big difference. He'll face a Toronto team with a banged-up secondary. The Elks are coming off a bye and inspired to try and make a late playoff push. They've won their last two visits to Toronto. Off a loss to Winnipeg and having already locked up top spot in the East, the Argos could easily look past the Elks. Edmonton will come to play. Grab the points! *CFL GOY |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The Gamecocks have the better record. Yet, the Blue Raiders are favored. Given that setup, it's not all that surprising that money came in on the underdog which brought the line down a little. Middle Tennessee was installed as the favorite for a reason, as this is a good matchup for the Blue Raiders. The Gamecocks are 1-1 on the road. They got beaten badly at Coastal Carolina and they needed OT to win at Sam Houston State. That came against the BearKats who were previously 0-3 and had been scored only 10 points, while giving up 65. Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium is a far more difficult venue. Look for the Blue Raiders to play their best game as they bounce back and improve to 6-3 ATS the past nine times that they were coming off a conference loss. *CUSA GOY |
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10-03-23 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Marlins have played the Phillies tough this season. They're 7-5 the past 12 meetings. The majority were close. Since we're getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Marlins today, I will point out that the games between these teams have been close. Five of those 12 games were decided by one run and that another four were decided by two runs. All three of Wheeler's starts against the Marlins were 1-run games. Miami won two of them. Luzardo has made five starts against the Phillies in his career. He's got a 3.27 ERA in those games with 37 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. Luzardo's teams were 4-1 in those games and the lone loss came by 1-run. Every run will be important in this game and I'm happy to grab an extra +1.5 of them with Luzardo and the Marlins. *NL East GOM |
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10-01-23 | Raiders v. Chargers -4.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
Both teams are 1-2. The winner will be back in the thick of things. The loser will be in big trouble. It's my opinion that the Chargers are the real deal and that the Raiders are not. Chargers lost a pair of close ones and easily could have won both. Raiders got destroyed last road game and followed it up by losing to Pittsburgh in primetime. LA is much better offensively. Chargers averaging 416.7 yards per game. Raiders averaging 287.7. Chargers averaging 28.7 points, Raiders averaging 15. Problem for the Raiders is that the Chargers are probably also better defensively. Then, there's the Raiders QB issues with Jimmy G in concussion protocol. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels commented: We're at the mercy of the testing and all the rest of it. He'll go through the normal set of tests. We'll see if he clears." Garoppolo may well play. Even if he does, or if its Hoyer or O'Connell, it's not going to make a difference. Chargers big. *AFC West GOY |
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09-30-23 | Illinois +1 v. Purdue | Top | 19-44 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
With essentially no pointspread to worry about, we can just focus on picking the winner. With that being the case, I'll gladly back Illinois. The Boilermakers did win at Virginia Tech. That's not as impressive as it sounds though. The Hokies aren't very strong this season. Since then, the Boilermakers have suffered b2b blowout losses. This is an inexperienced team with a coach in his first year. After Purdue scored the big upset at Champlain last year, the visitor is 4-1 SU and ATS in this series. Bret Beilema knows how costly last year's loss to the Boilermakers was. He can't afford to let the same thing happen. The Illini are 8-3 ATS their last 11 on the road. They'll build momentum off last week's victory and avenge last year's loss. *Big Ten GOY |
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09-30-23 | UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota -10.5 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Gophers happy to be home after dropping b2b road games. They're 2-0 here with wins over Eastern Michigan and Nebraska. They beat EMU by 19 as 20-point favorites. This line is much lower than that one but the Gophers are fully capable of winning by at least that many again. Cajuns are playing their third road game in four weeks and facing their toughest opponent yet. It will catch up with them. Expect the Gophers' advantages to be clearly evident and for them to improve to 12-8 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were home chalk of -10 to -14.5 points. *12 ET Blowout |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
I always like getting points with the superior team. Even more when my team is playing at home. These teams are both new to the Big 12 this season. Both came up short in their conference opener. The ground game may have struggled but the Cougar passing attack is clicking on all cylinders. Expect another big day through the air against an inexperienced and vulnerable Bearcat secondary. This is not an easy place to play. The Cougars have outscored opponents 41-15 in going 2-0 here so far. They're 11-3 straight-up their last 14 here, 3-0 when the total fell in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Bearcats have played pretty well but they're still a team which lost a lot from last year and which has a new coach. It catches up with them in Provo, Fright night. BYU scores the minor upset in its Big 12 home opener! *Big 12 GOM |
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09-29-23 | Liberty -4 v. Sun | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The series is tied 1-1. The Sun covered both meetings at New York and got the straight-up split. The Liberty know that they need to reclaim homecourt advantage. With this game now being played at Connecticut, the line is much lower on NY than it was for the first two games. If they win, as I believe that they will, they don't have a big number to worry about covering. Each of the past seven meetings was decided by five or more points. The Liberty were 17-3 on the road this season. That was the best road record in the league. In fact, both these teams had better records away from home. The Liberty are the better team and they'll show it. Lay the points. *WNBA GOM |
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09-24-23 | Steelers v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 23-18 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The Steelers looked better than the Raiders last week. They were at home for the second straight week though. The Raiders were playing a road game against one of the best team's in the NFL, their second straight on the road. This time, it's the Raiders who will benefit from being at home. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS the past five instances where they were home favorites of three or less. During that time, the Steelers are 2-3 ATS when off a divisional win. Off their win over the Browns and playing on a short week (Remember, Pittsburgh's last game was on MNF.) the Steelers will struggle. They won a close on against the Raiders at Pittsburgh last meeting but the Raiders are still 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. They'll be fired up for the home opener and will come away with the win and cover. *NFL GOW |
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09-23-23 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The talent gap between these teams is a lot less than many realize. A few weeks ago, Pittsburgh might have been favored for this game. The Tar Heels are tough but the Panthers are better than their 1-2 record suggests. Speaking of Pittsburgh's 1-2 w/l mark, the Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS The past six times that they faced a team with a losing record. The Panthers gave the Tar Heels all that they could handle each of the past two meetings here. Both went to OT. Both were won by Pitt. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS the past four in the series. With the Tar Heels just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were road favorites in the 9.5-12 range, grab the points with the home underdog Panthers. *ACC GOY |
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09-23-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan -24 | 7-31 | Push | 0 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
The line on Michigan should be higher. The Knights have fared well against lesser competition but this is a massive step up in class, one which they will not be ready for. Rutgers has been favored in its first three games. The Knights are just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 as underdogs though. Once the Wolverines got rolling in last year's game, they outscored Rutgers by a 38-0 margin in the second half. The problem for the Knights is that they are ra running team and they are forced to abandon the run after they fall behind. Back to the line: the Wolverines are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were favored by 21.5 to 24 points. This has been a good role for them. They're also 14-6 ATS their last 20 conference games. Wolverines win big! |
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09-22-23 | Boise State v. San Diego State +7 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
Home field means a lot for both of these squads. The Broncos won 35-13 on the blue turf last year. However, the last time (2021) the teams played here at San Diego, the Aztecs won 27-16. Including those results, SDSU is 6-2 ATS when facing Boise in MWC play. The Broncos are loaded on offense but a little inexperienced on defense. Through three games, they're allowing 30.7 ppg. They got crushed in their only road game this season. In fact, they're only 1-2 overall. The Aztecs 13-5 SU L3 years at home, are 6-1 their last seven against teams with a losing record. Granted, the Broncos aren't a typical losing team. my point is that they haven't yet hit their stride though, their only win coming at home against North Dakota. Going through a tough scheduling stretch, the Aztecs know they need to step up and score an upset. This one should be close. Grab the points! |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina -6.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The road team has enjoyed recent success in this series. That will change Thursday night though. The Chanticleers didn't just win last year's game, (at Georgia State) they dominated the Panthers. A 272-78 advantage on the ground and a 268-231 edge through the air. Time of possession was more than 40 mins for Coastal Carolina and less than 20 for Georgia State. This year's Chanticleers are even stronger on defense. Having already played at UCLA, the Chanticleers are battle-tested. They held their own for much of that game (1 point game in 4th quarter) and dominated their next two opponents. The Panthers haven't been tested yet. They've got an inexperienced offensive line and that will catch up with them against their first difficult opponent. Chanticleers are 10-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in September last few years. They're also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on Thursday football. Superior defense, homefield and an advantage in the trenches leads to another big win for Coastal Carolina! |
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09-20-23 | Orioles v. Astros +1.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Houston Run-Line (+1.5 runs) Baltimore took the past two games but Houston will respond with a big effort this afternoon. Bradish can be tough but Javier is no slouch either. The Astros are an excellent 19-9 with him on the mound this season. I will mention that Bradish has seen two of his last four starts decided by a single run. The Astros are 120-78, when off a loss, the past few seasons. The last time they were off b2b losses, they bounced back with a 6-2 win. In what should be a close one, grab the extra +1.5 runs. |
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09-19-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
Seattle is still scrapping for a spot in the postseason while Oakland has been eliminated for a long time. Probable starter Castillo for the M’s has been on fire lately with a 4-0 record in his last 5 starts and a 1.60 ERA. Two of his last 5 starts had more than 6 innings of shutout ball. Probable starter Blackburn for the A’s has a 5.73 ERA and an abysmal 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts, where he has only averaged 3.7 innings pitched. Castillo also has a superior bullpen to support him when he comes out after his 6 or so innings. Head-to-head this season the Mariners hold a 9-1 edge in their last 10 against the A’s, where the average run differential in the Mariners’ wins is +4. Lay the runs on this one and take the Mariners. |
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09-18-23 | Saints -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
The Saints and Panthers meet up in a key NFC South match up. If last week is anything to go by, the Saints will rely on the arm of Carr to put up points, hopefully more than last week's 16. For the Panthers, it will be all about the run as newbie QB Young looks like he will need some time to adjust. Both of these teams faced run-heavy teams in game one. The Saints held King Henry to 4.3/63 yards. Carolina allowed 130 yds rushing to the Falcons. The Saints pass defense ate up Tannehill and Co. last week. Facing rookie Bryce Young, who finished with a passer rating of under 50, it will be no contest. The Panthers allowed Ridder a 111 rating, even when sacking him 4 times. Carr looked effective if turnover-prone, throwing for 282 passing yards, with a Passer Rating of 96. He was harried especially in the first half, but put up impressive totals in yards if not points none the less. The Saints will have to improve on passer protection as Carr was sacked 4 times. He has very good targets this year, including a very speedy rookie in Shaheed. With Carolina missing a key CB in Horn, the Saints will be able to move the ball in the air effectively. It is hard to see where Carolina's points will come from on Sunday. New Orleans gave up zero rush and pass TDs last week, and this is not a strong offense. The favored Saints should win and cover in Prime Time on Monday night. |
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09-18-23 | Burnley v. Nottingham Forest -0.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -55.5 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Burnley’s start to the season has been unkind. They have surrendered the most goals in the EPL so far this season and have only played 3 games (almost everyone else has played 5). They are also last in 1st half and 2nd half goals surrendered. They have had some scheduling bad luck, but still, they are averaging more than 3 goals against per game. Notts Forest are unbeaten in their last 4 at home (Brighton, Southampton, Arsenal, Sheffield U.). They are 8th in goals for in the 1st half and the 2nd half. 2022 signing Awonyi has scored or assisted in each of his last 8 games (9 goals). They are so direct in their attacking that only West Ham moves the ball upfield at a faster rate. All four of the major prediction services predict a Forest win. Their return to the EPL has been difficult and this one is not going to be any easier as Forest is still flying after their win over Chelsea before the break. Lay the fraction of a point and play Forest on this one. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins -2 v. Patriots | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Tua is the talk of the town after that massive pass attack in Week one. The Dolphins will face a much tougher defense on Sunday and he is unlikely to get as much time or as little pressure in Week two. Let's bear in mind that the Dolphins barely won the game, had little running game and the defense really struggled, especially vs the run. New England's offense including Jones, impressed in week one. They were unlucky to lose against a tough Eagles team, but as far as Jones' passing game goes, I am still not sold. Is the Dolphins' defense really as poor as they looked in week one? They were projected to be much improved this year. I believe that adjustments can and will be made, but they are up against Belichik who will have a very considered game plan. The Dolphins are a small favorite today. The Patriots' offense does not have the dynamism of the Chargers and with Tua healthy and his fine targets ready, the Dolphins can really score in a hurry. I believe the Dolphins offense will be very tough to slowdown this early in the season. Take Miami to win and cover. |
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09-17-23 | 49ers -7 v. Rams | Top | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
As dominant as the Rams were in game one vs the Seahawks, their chances of upsetting the 49ers are slim. Stafford had a field day vs Seattle but was very well protected (0 sacks). It is highly unlikely that Stafford will have near as much time to operate on Sunday. The Rams again don't appear to be focusing on the run again this year, and even if they did, SF is very tough on the ground. The 49ers had 5 sacks last week, and Stafford is not the most mobile of passers. Purdy, on the other hand, saw a lot of TJ Watt last week, was sacked 3 times, but he still finished with a very solid game, ending with a 111 passer rating. Purdy has, as we know, great targets,and he put to rest some of the concerns about his success this year. The 49ers ran for 144 yards with McCaffrey leading the way. He has been a huge thorn in the side of the Rams in past meetings. The lack of a Rams run game, and the toughness and skill of the 49ers as a complete entity will be more than the Rams can handle. Look for SF to give Purdy better protection, and take SF to win and cover. |
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09-17-23 | Packers v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 24-25 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
The Packers appeared the more impressive team in Week One, but played against an arguably weaker opponent and may have key players sitting this week. Both young QBs ended with solid ratings. Ridder was accurate, but relied heavily on a very short game with just 91 yards passing. The Falcon's' O line did not support him well, allowing four sacks, but is a good bet for improvement in Game 2. Love looked very good in the second half, had plenty of time, but completed just 55% of his passes. He will face much more pressure this week from Atlanta's defense. The Falcons effectively shut down the Panthers' pass attack, albeit against a rookie QB, last week. The Falcons' run-centric offense with Allgeier and Robinson was very effective last week (130 yards rushing/ 5 yards per carry) The Packers weren't great against the run, allowing the Bears 122 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt. The potential loss or compromise of Green Bay's RB Jones is very significant. He was the driving force last week for the Packers and won't easily be replaced, as Dillon was ineffective last week. This could be a very close game, but Packers' injuries and the Falcons' new and improved defense will make the difference. take the Falcons to win and cover. |
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09-17-23 | Arsenal -1 v. Everton | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Arsenal has had a successful, although uninspiring start to this EPL campaign. They were fortunate to win late vs. Man U, struggled to fend off Palace by one goal, tied Fulham at home and beat Notts Forest by only one. Along the way they have fought their way to the 2nd best goals against record in the EPL. When you put that stat next to Everton’s league worst goals for record, it is hard to look past that. Everton is looking like a threat to be a relegation club after losing to unimpressive Fulham and Wolves, drawing Sheffield and getting clobbered by Villa. In their last 6 at home, they have lost 5, scoring 2 and giving up 13. Even though Arsenal has struggled at Everton historically, this looks like the season they overcome that trend. Although Everton has created many chances in their games so far (their actual goals is less than their expected goals by more than any other club), they are coming up against a defensive powerhouse that has just started to see Rice and Zinchenko round into form. And at the other end of the park Saka and Oedegaard have been dominant, and Jesus has 8 goals in 9 games vs. Everton. Arsenal’s goal creating actions/90 is behind only Brighton and Man City (while Everton’s is tied for last). Things are going to get worse for Everton before they get better. Lay the goals and play Arsenal on this one. |
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09-16-23 | Twins -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
Facing the White Sox in Chicago, the Twins have taken the first two games, outscoring their opponents 20-4. Will we see three routs in three games? It is entirely possible, if Lopez continues to pitch as well as he has recently. The Twins right hander has a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts, striking out 14 in his last appearance. He has a ton of innings under his belt at this point in the season, but he seems to be handling the work. Lopez is very good on the road. A very uneven Toussaint starts for the White Sox. He lasted only a single inning last time out, allowing 8 runs, but was effective in his three previous starts. His ERA is much worse when pitching in Chicago. Toussaint will face a hard-hitting squad on Saturday. The Twins are third in the league over the last two weeks at .266 BA /.824 OPS. The Sox are enmired in 29th place at the moment at .223/.603. The Twins have really roughed up the Sox' very lackluster bullpen in the last two games. Leading 5-0 in games vs the Sox this season, I think you can tack on another win for 6-0. Take the Twins on the run line to win. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 51 h 27 m | Show |
Tennessee is ranked No. 11 in the country at 2-0, while the Florida Gators enter at 1-1. Tennessee is off ht 30-13 win over FCS Opponent Austin Peay, not even coming close to covering the ridiculous 48-point spread. Florida is also off a blowout win over an FCS Opponent, smashing McNeese State by a score of 49-7 as a 48.5-point favorite. These teams met last year and the Vols managed the 38-33 shootout win at home, but now it's payback time for the Gators. That said, while I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Tennessee is led by Joe Milton, who has 429 yards passing and 4:0 TD:INT so far. But the Vols looked poor defensively overall to a weak team, allowing 260 passing yards to Austin Peay. Florida finished with 327 yards on the ground last week. QB Graham Mertz has two passing TD's so far. The Gators' defense has been great, so far allowing 191 YPG. Milton has never lived up to expectations throughout his now six year career, and I think he'll struggle to cover this spread. Grab the points, the play is Florida. |
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09-16-23 | Brighton & Hove Albion +0.5 v. Manchester United | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
Brighton is part of the new wave and have only lost one game so far (to another up-and-coming club, West Ham). They have done it with attacking football. ManU is always expected to do well, especially at home. So far they have lost two and only beat minnows, Fulham and Wolves by one goal each. Usually ManU has a stout defense at home but will be missing Shaw on the back line and Varane is questionable. But ManU is 6th in the EPL in saves so lots of shots are getting through. ManU is still without Mount and now will also be missing Antony as well for their attack which was already middle of the pack in shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches. Sancho has been out of favor as well but may have worked his way back for this game. Brighton is in sharp contrast to this as they lead the EPL in goals for, shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches. Brighton is one of the most creative attacking sides in the EPL and they will have a chance to exploit a hurting and vulnerable ManU defence. Add to this that Brighton has won 3 and tied one of their last 4 head-to-head matches and you have a clincher for choosing Brighton to take the points offered and win the game. |
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09-16-23 | Liverpool -1.25 v. Wolverhampton Wanderers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 55 h 58 m | Show |
This is a very different Wolves team than the one that took down Liverpool in Feb/23. Gone are Nunes, Jimenez, Traore, Coady, Neves, Moutinho and Costa. Cunha is the lone goal scorer among the newcomers. This season Liverpool is 3-0-1 with 9 goals for and 3 against while Wolves are 1-3-0 with 4 goals for and 8 against. Wolves are leaky at the back and Liverpool is one of the best attacking clubs in the world. Liverpool may be missing 2 or 3 of their first team backline so they could give up a goal but will be too much for Wolves to handle when they attack. Liverpool dominated the strong attacking Villa with a limited back line before the break so they shouldn’t be troubled with the Wolves’ attack this week. Lay the goals and take Liverpool. |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA -8.5 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
UTSA won this game by a score of 41-38 in OT last year, barely covering the two-point spread. Here we are a year later and the Roadrunners are much bigger favs, but not nearly big enough in my opinion. Army lost 17-13 to Louisiana Monroe, and then followed it up with a 57-0 win over FCS Delaware State. The Black Knights though have more questions than answers still. The Roadrunners started the year with a 17-14 loss to Houston, before then responding with the 20-13 win over Texas State in Week 2. UTSA starting QB Frank Harris could be sidelined with injury in this one, but even if he is out I still like the home side to not only win this matchup, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Roadrunners looked sharp on defense last week, holding Texas State to just 242 yards of offense. The defense also looked great in the loss to Houston, and I believe the unit will be the difference-maker in this one. It's "Next Man Up" for the Roadrunners, and I expect everyone else to help shoulder the load as well here. Lay the points, the play is UTSA. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings v. Eagles -6 | Top | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The Eagles won unconvincingly in week one vs the Patriots. The Vikings stumbled to a loss against a projected weaker opponent in the Bucs in their first game. The Vikings put up a ton of passing yards, as usual, but weren't great in the red zone and gave up the ball three times. They barely attempted a run game, finishing with just 41 yds on 17 attempts. A one dimensional offense will be an issue against the Eagles' likely formidable pass pressure. Philadelphia will be down a running back, but do have other options including, of course, Hurts. The Vikings project to be a much softer defense than the Eagles' Game One opponent. The Vikings allowed 25 points last week and Hurts and the Eagles will be a large step up from Mayfield's Buccaneer offense. Cousins is notorious for poor play in the limelight. Much like last year, the Eagles, after an underwhelming game one, again face the Vikings at home. Look for a similar outcome as the Eagles win and cover. |
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09-12-23 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
The Dodgers are better than the Padres overall, better at home than the Padres on the road, marginally better at the plate over the last 15 days, have a superior bullpen and their runs/ 9 innings differential is also superior. What they don’t have is a superior probable starter for late Tuesday night. Probable starter Wacha for the Padres is having an outstanding season even though his club has failed to meet expectations. He has a 2.99 ERA (2.00 over the last 5 games), an 11-3 record (3-1 over the last 5 games) and a 1.17 WHIP. Lynn, the probable starter for the Dodgers has a 6.06 ERA (10.80 over the last 3 games), a 10-11 record (2-2 over the last 5 games) and a 1.46 WHIP. Furthermore, Wacha has a 3.65 ERA in his road starts while Lynn has a 5.86 ERA in his home starts. Even though the Dodgers bullpen has more quality the game will be over by the time it comes into play and the Padres bullpen is good enough to hold the fort after the starters have left the mound. Take the runs and the Padres for the win. |
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09-10-23 | Rams v. Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
The Seahawks, off a fine training camp, face the Rams, without Cupp at home. The Seahawks are a young Carroll-lead team who essentially rebuilt the defense, especially vs the run, their Achilles heel last year. Look for much improved performance on D with another season under the belt for last year's rookies , plus additions including a Bobby Wagner reunite. Geno Smith impressed last year, especially in the early season. While I am not as big on Smith as many seem to be, he has fine targets, including a potentially great rookie as a third WR. With Walker playing and Charbonnet, we could see more of a run game from the Seahawks this season. The Rams defense is centered on Donald, but after him, it is very much depleted. This is a team that gave up 41 points to the Broncos in an albeit meaningless preseason game last week. Stafford, when he played last year, was lost without Cupp. The Rams' best bet will be to test the new Seahawks run defense, but I don't see them putting up many points on Sunday. Look for Seattle, at home, to win and cover easily. |