Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-12-22 | Creighton v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 48-54 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Creighton turned in an incredible performance yesterday in its semifinal win over Providence. They won 85-58. It was the largest loss for a #1 seed in Big East Tournament history. Providence couldn’t make anything, going 3 of 24 from three and shooting just 30% overall. I think it’s important to note that Providence seemed to be overrated and to remember that - with no starters back from last year’s Sweet 16 team - Creighton was picked to finish eighth in the Big East this year. Thanks to yesterday, their 9th win in the last 11 games, the Bluejays are all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament. Thus, the motivation may not be there on Saturday against Villanova, a supremely talented team that is the best in the Big East. ‘Nova beat UConn Friday, 63-60, avenging its last loss. Speaking of avenging losses, that’s precisely what the Wildcats did against Creighton the last time the teams met. After Creighton took the first meeting, ‘Nova bounced back with a 34-point win on January 5th. Villanova is simply the much better team at the offensive end, where it ranks 8th nationally in efficiency. Creighton is 0-3 all-time in Big East Tournament Finals. They can’t possibly play any better than they did yesterday nor can they count on Villanova shooting as poorly as Providence did. As for the Wildcats, they managed to still win last night despite not making a single field goal in the final five minutes. The favorite doesn’t turn it over and is one of the best free throw shooting teams in NCAA history. |
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03-12-22 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
The big shocker in the SEC yesterday was Texas A&M upsetting top seed Auburn, 67-62. The Aggies, as 9-point underdogs, led most of the way and were up by as many as 20! That win greatly improved their NCAA Tournament chances, though another win today may be needed. Arkansas is in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, but winning the SEC Championship would be nice. It was an impressive 79-67 win for the Hogs over LSU on Friday, improving their record to 15-2 SU since Jan 8. They have also gone 14-2-1 ATS in that same stretch. Both regular season meetings between A&M and Arkansas were closely contested. Each team won at home, A&M by five and Arkansas by three. I just don’t think A&M is capable of playing any better than it did yesterday when it made 50% from three at the same time Auburn shot just 30% overall. The Razorbacks are pretty clearly the better team here and A&M is playing its third game in three days. One of those games saw the Aggies go to overtime. So their tank could be close to empty by the second half today. Arkansas built itself a nice double digit lead in the second half yesterday and thus fatigue should not be a factor at all for them. Lay the points. |
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03-11-22 | Wizards v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
So there is a question whether or not LeBron James is going to suit up tonight. Regardless if he does or not, I’m on the Lakers. Wednesday may have been a new nadir for LA as they lost in overtime to the lowly Rockets. With or without James, the Lakers are going to come out motivated on Friday after being ripped in the media. Facing the Wizards helps. They too are off a gutting loss, letting the Clippers score the game’s final 11 points on Wednesday, sending Washington to yet another defeat, their 20th in the last 32 games. The Wizards are 5-16 ATS vs. the Western Conference and 0-6 vs. the Pacific Division. If LeBron plays, obviously I’m a lot more confident. Either way though, expect the Lakers to win and cover. |
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03-11-22 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -2 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
I don’t think you can undersell the importance of the rest advantage here for Wisconsin, in a tough tournament like the Big 10. Michigan State played last night and was taken down to the wire by Maryland, grinding out a 76-72 win. It shouldn’t have ended up that close for Sparty, who had a 20-point lead over the Terps. Don’t look for MSU to shoot as well here as they did last night when they made 50% overall and 47.4% from three. Wisconsin should be very eager to take the court tonight after they shockingly lost the home finale, to Nebraska, as 13-point favorites. The Badgers basically trailed the entire way in that game against the last place team in the Big 10. But at no point this season have the Badgers lost two in a row. They have won a lot of close games. But looking at the number, the possibility of a SU win/ATS loss here is very minimal. Michigan State has lost 7 of its last 11 games. |
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03-11-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Nicholls State -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Nicholls State is the top seed here in the Southland Tournament and received a double-bye into today’s semifinals. They face Texas A&M-CC, who defeated Houston Baptist by a score of 75-60 yesterday. Texas A&M-CC covered the 5.5-point spot in that game. Texas A&M-CC has won five of its last six games. But the one loss did come to Nicholls, 86-75 at home. They were swept in the season series, also losing at Nicholls by three. Nicholls has now won the last four head to head meetings and six of the last seven. Going back to January 27th, Nicholls has lost only two games, both to SE Louisiana, who they very well could end up seeing in tomorrow’s final. The Colonels come in averaging 79.6 points per game, tied for 15th in the country, and have exceeded 80 points in seven consecutive games. In the two regular season games vs. Texas A&M-CC, Nicholls scored 83 and 86 points. The Colonels are the best team in the Southland and I just can’t see them being upset here. Not with a rest advantage. Lay the short number. |
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03-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Northern Colorado -2 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Northern Colorado faces Eastern Washington in the 3-6 matchup of the Big Sky Tournament. Eastern Washington played yesterday, beating Northern Arizona 78-75. Northern Colorado had a bye, so they have a distinct advantage that is seemingly not being accounted for (enough) by the oddsmakers. Eastern Washington has won its last three games, but two of those were against Northern Arizona, who finished last in the Big Sky. Last night’s first round matchup saw the need for a late 9-0 run to take the lead. I just don’t think the Eagles will have much left in the tank for tonight. Northern Colorado has been off since Saturday’s two point loss at Montana State. A sour taste in their mouth (from losing the last regular season game) will have the Bears highly motivated coming into this one. Each team won on the other’s court this year, so it was a split of the two regular season meetings. Northern Colorado was a two-point favorite on the road and six point favorite at home, so I feel we are getting a discount (for whatever reason) here. Northern Colorado has not dropped back to back games in over a month, a stretch of 11 games. I’ll roll with them. |
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03-10-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Long Beach State won the Big West this year with a 12-3 conference record. They finished 18-11 overall. Despite this, the Beach is just a short favorite for its quarterfinal game against a Cal State Bakersfield team that won just two conference games all season! What? CS-Bakersfield also had to win a game to get here. They advanced out of the first round by defeating Cal State Northridge on Tuesday, 58-45 as a six-point favorite. Even with the day in between games, I don’t see the Roadrunners having much of a chance today. They lost by nine at LBSU in the lone regular season matchup. LBSU has lost only two games in the previous two months. While they are a bit of a shaky #1 seed, they are clearly better than the #9 seed in this tournament. Coming into the Big West Tournament, CS-Bakersfield had just one win in its last 13 games! They are 6-16 ATS in lined games this season! Just can’t make sense of this number from the oddsmakers; the top seed is being “disrespected” and I’ll play accordingly. |
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03-09-22 | Thunder v. Wolves -14 | Top | 102-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Minnesota is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Timberwolves have won five in a row, covering the spread each time, and averaged 130.6 points per game. They are winning by an average of almost 23 points during the win streak! Now it helps to play the likes of Oklahoma City and Portland, the latter twice, but guess who the T’wolves see tonight? OKC again! It was 138-101 the last time these teams met and that was in Oklahoma City. Minnesota turned in both its highest scoring half (77 points) and quarter (45) of the season in that win. They shot 57% before halftime and for the game, made 22 of 47 three-point shots. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss last night where it surrendered 142 points. So this game could get very ugly in a hurry. The Thunder have lost their last three games and allowed 124 or more points in five of the last seven. The Timberwolves are 3-0 vs. the Thunder in 2021-22. The last two wins were by 30 and 37 points. Let’s not overthink this one. Minnesota has covered all eight home games this season when the total is 230 points or higher. They are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of -12.5 or higher. |
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03-09-22 | Navy v. Colgate -6.5 | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Only one NCAA Tournament berth will be handed out today and it goes to the winner of the Patriot League Final between Navy and Colgate. These are the top two seeds, but Colgate has pretty clearly been the class of the league throughout the season. On their home floor, I expect the Raiders to win comfortably and move on. The respective paths these teams took to get to this Final illustrates the gap that exists between them. Colgate has rolled over Bucknell (96-68) and Lehigh (91-61) while Navy squeaked by American U (71-64) and needed overtime to beat Boston U (85-80). This game is being played in Colgate’s gym where they are 14-1 SU this season and 38-4 SU the last three seasons. So it’s a really big deal. When at home, the Raiders are outscoring their opponents by almost 17 points per game. Colgate swept the two regular season meetings vs. Navy. At home, they won by only five. But they won the game in Annapolis by 19. It’s 14 straight wins for Colgate coming into tonight. Only one has been by less than seven points. |
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03-09-22 | St. Joe's -2 v. La Salle | Top | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
It’s going to be a “tough mountain” to climb for LaSalle and St. Joe’s, who have to play in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tourney. Both face the prospect of having to win five times in five days just to make the NCAA Tournament. That’s not going to happen, but one team will win today and I think that’s going to be the short favorite. Consider that St. Joe’s is playing with double revenge. Yes, they lost twice to LaSalle in the regular season. The more recent loss came exactly a week ago, on the road and by a single point. At the time, that was the Hawks’ seventh straight defeat, but five of them were by six points or less and three by two points or less. Thankfully, the regular season ended on a positive note with St. Joe’s defeating Rhode Island 70-60. With the losing streak now over, they can concentrate on exacting some revenge. LaSalle has won three in a row, which is very rare as it is tied for their longest win streak of the year. Two of those three wins have been by two points or less. The Explorers were just 2-13 in A-10 games. I think this is a wonderful time to fade them, especially at this price. St. Joe’s is the better team here and I find it hard to believe anybody could lose to LaSalle three times in the same season. |
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03-08-22 | Southern Miss v. Texas-San Antonio -3 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
UTSA and Southern Miss face a tough path in the Conference USA Tournament. Both face the task of having to win five times this week. That’s not going to happen for either team. But I do really like UTSA to win this first round game. The Roadrunners aren’t particularly great, but they did win their last game (82-71 over Rice) and are facing an opponent that hasn’t won in nearly two months. The last time Southern Miss did win (1/19), it was against a non-DI foe. The last time the Golden Eagles defeated a Division I opponent was Jan 6 - UTSA. It was a one-point victory, 74-73. UTSA avenged that loss with a 19-point win at Hattiesburg one month later. They are now 4-1 SU/ATS vs. Southern Miss the previous three seasons. Southern Miss is very bad. They are 6-25 overall and 1-17 in conference play. The average loss came by nearly 15 PPG when facing a team from C-USA. During their current 12-game losing streak, 10 losses have come by double digits. This is a steal having to lay so few points against Southern Miss. UTSA has already proven that they can blow this team out. They will again. |
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03-08-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
There’s been a bit of a “cooling off” with the Grizzlies, as they are just 4-4 SU the last eight games overall. But after a bad loss, 123-112 at Houston, I expect them to start strong tonight at home vs. New Orleans. No reason to panic in Memphis. Owing mostly to the Warriors’ recent struggles, the team has moved up into second place in the Western Conference. Looking back, the Grizzlies have won 25 of 33. They are still one of the best teams in the NBA. The Grizz probably should have beaten the Rockets considering they were up 10 at halftime. But they finished the game an uncharacteristic 5 of 28 from three-point range. Similarly, the opponent for Tuesday blew a double digit lead on Sunday and lost. New Orleans was more egregious, letting an 11-point advantage slip away in the final 3:22 of regulation and ending up going down in overtime, 138-130 at Denver. That snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak for the Pelicans. The Grizzlies typically do very well off losses. Since Christmas, there’s been only one instance of them losing back to back games. Look for those threes to start falling here and the home team will cover the spread. |
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03-08-22 | Georgia Tech +1.5 v. Louisville | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The bottom six take part in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Here, it’s the #11 seed Louisville taking on #14 Georgia Tech. The teams met once in the regular season. Louisville won 67-64 as a three-point favorite. Since that win, the bottom dropped out of Louisville's season. They fired head coach Chris Mack and ended the regular season on a poor 4-13 ATS run. They won just two of those games straight up. So I’m siding with the Yellow Jackets here. They’ve got a bit more momentum, having covered five of the last six games and beating Boston College in the regular season finale. Playing for a lame-duck interim coach is no way to enter a conference tournament. That’s the reality for Louisville right now. The Cardinals shoot just 28% from three away from home and average 63.9 points. They’ve also turned the ball over 54 times in the last four games and allowed opponents to shoot a ridiculous percentage from three in the last three games. |
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03-07-22 | Knicks v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 131-115 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
The Kings get to host the Knicks, who are in the second night of a back to back. Furthermore, since the Knicks won on Sunday (beat the Clippers 116-93), I think we’re getting a really good price on the home side. Sacramento is coming off a 2-3 road trip. It could have been better, but two of the losses were by five points or less. They lost 114-113 in Dallas on Saturday, blowing a 19-point lead. Before winning Sunday, the Knicks had lost seven straight and 10 of their last 11. They aren’t a good team either. This is the middle of a seven-game, 12-day trip that has Dallas, Memphis and Brooklyn still to come. I’d say the Knicks are about to fall out of playoff contention for good. The Kings have revenge for a 20-point loss they suffered in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks shot 50 percent in that game, something they haven’t done since. New York has failed to cover 15 of the last 22 times it has been off an ATS win. Most of those games came with rest, something that isn’t the case here. Lay the points. |
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03-07-22 | Hawks -7.5 v. Pistons | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
All of a sudden, Detroit has turned into a covering machine, winning its last seven in a row ATS. But let’s not sugarcoat the fact the Pistons are still a bad basketball team. They are thirty games below .500 and have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. During the 7-0 ATS run, the Pistons have won straight up a total of five times. They are coming off back to back wins here, first beating the Raptors in Toronto on Thursday night, 108-106, followed by a 111-106 home win over the Pacers on Friday. The team had the weekend off. You can look for the win streak to end Monday against Atlanta. First off, Detroit has not won three in a row at any point in the season. They are 1-2 ATS when coming off two straight wins and the one cover came as 12.5-point underdogs. Atlanta has been playing better recently. They too have won five of their last seven and didn’t play over the weekend. The Hawks’ most recent wins came over the Bulls and Wizards. Trae Young has averaged 34.0 points and 9.5 assists over the last four games. The last time the Pistons won three in a row was the 2018-19 season. The last time these teams met, the Hawks won by 18. John Collins is now back for them. The home team is due to play poorly. |
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03-07-22 | Wright State v. Cleveland State | Top | 82-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Despite being regular season champs in the Horizon League, Cleveland State isn’t getting much respect in this semifinal matchup with 4-seed Wright State. The quarterfinals of this tournament saw all top four seeds win in the quarterfinals after they each received a first round bye. The top-seeded Vikings are 20-9 on the year. They ousted Robert Morris 83-67 in the quarterfinals, a game in which they had the home court advantage. Tonight’s game takes place in Indianapolis, a neutral setting. The Vikings actually haven’t played a neutral court game all season. Thursday’s win against Robert Morris was marred by issues with the scoreboard, but CSU got 25 points from Torrey Patton, which matched a season-high. The Vikings shot well (54.2%) and defended the three-point line better than RMU. They forced 20 turnovers. Wright State found itself down eight at the half against Oakland in its quarterfinal matchup. They too got to play at home. It was a 20-0 run that turned the tide. The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in neutral site games this year though and are unlikely to go on a run like that against a better team like Cleveland State. Cleveland State won both regular season meetings, 85-75 at home and 71-67 away. They are the better team here and won the Horizon League Tourney last season. I see no reason why they won’t defeat Wright State again. |
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03-06-22 | Suns +9 v. Bucks | Top | 122-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
The Suns are playing shorthanded, but even so this is too many points to pass up. The team with the best record in the NBA, the Suns have lost just three of their last 24 games. After beating Portland by 30 on Wednesday, they came from behind to beat the Knicks on Friday. Milwaukee comes into this NBA Finals rematch on a three-game win streak. The last two wins, over Miami and Chicago, were both hard fought. Only one of the Bucks' last five games have been decided by more than six points. I bring this up, because they may not have enough left in the tank to run away with this one. Brook Lopez is still out for the Bucks. As great as Giannis has been recently, that kind of production can’t continue forever. Not only have the Bucks failed to cash in seven of their last nine games against teams that have winning records, but they are just 13-21 ATS at home. Phoenix has an incredible road record of 23-5 SU. As short-handed as they might be (no Paul or Booker), look for the Suns to compete here. They dominated Milwaukee (131-107) in the first meeting since last year’s NBA Finals. This is the most points they’ll get in any game all season. |
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03-06-22 | Houston v. Memphis +2.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
This is an important game for Memphis, despite having won three in a row. The Tigers are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and can still earn the second seed for next week’s American Conference Tournament. They are also looking to make it a season sweep over Houston. That would be quite the accomplishment. Back on February 12th, the Tigers ended the Cougars’ 37-game home win streak with a 69-59 victory. That was a season-low in points for Houston and they committed a season-high 19 turnovers. Memphis has won 9 of its last 10 overall, the one loss coming at SMU. They’ve also covered five straight times against Houston. I really like the spot for the short home underdog here. Houston is playing its fourth game in eight days (“tough” says coach Kelvin Sampson) and is lacking depth because of injuries. Considering that the Cougars have already locked up the regular season title, they may not be treating this game all that seriously. Memphis has covered 11 of the past 13 times it has been an underdog. Grab the points. |
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03-05-22 | UNLV -3.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
UNLV played New Mexico in January and won 85-56. The Runnin’ Rebels don’t need to win by even half that margin tonight in Albuquerque. I’ll lay the points. UNLV already knows it will be 5th in the Conference Tournament. That means they avoid playing in the first round. But they will face Wyoming in the quarterfinals. They just beat the Cowboys by seven on Wednesday. New Mexico will be the nine seed, so they are in the first round and matched up with Nevada. The Lobos have lost four of five and just fell at Fresno State earlier in the week. They did at least cover the spread as 10-point underdogs. UNLV has won the last seven head to head meetings. I say you can make it eight after tonight. The Rebels have lost only one game that they have been favored in all season. This number is short. Lay it. |
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03-05-22 | Spurs v. Hornets -3 | Top | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
I like the spot for Charlotte here. They just handed Cleveland a 119-98 defeat and have had two days off. Now the Hornets can turn their full attention to San Antonio, who just got beat at home by Sacramento. That loss to Sacramento was the Spurs’ first home game following the annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” which spanned eight games and nearly three weeks. The Spurs went 4-4 on the trip. But then they came home and lost to the Kings. Now it's back on the road, to the East Coast no less. They are 13-20 in road games this season. Charlotte beat San Antonio, at the Alamo, 131-115 back in December. What makes this game so important to the Hornets is that they are just 1-9 their last 10 at home. Prior to that, they had a very good home record. I just can’t see San Antonio coming in here and winning. |
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03-05-22 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Bryant -6 | Top | 69-70 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Bryant is the #1 seed in the NEC Tournament, having earned that distinction by defeating Wagner in the final regular season game. They won their quarterfinal game pretty handily, though not by as much as the oddsmakers expected. It was a 73-59 win over Central Connecticut State on Wednesday. Mount St. Mary’s is the 4-seed and beat St. Francis 78-48 to get here. That was a very impressive win for last year’s NEC Tourney champs as they were only seven-point favorites. Still, with Bryant having homecourt advantage for this one, the line looks low. Mount St. Mary’s has a 14-15 straight up record on the year and is 0-2 against Bryant, although one of the games was decided by just a single point. The key though is Bryant’s 12-1 home record. This is a team that has lost just one time since Jan 6th. The Bulldogs are averaging 82.4 points in conference play while giving up just 73.3. MSM played a great game Wednesday, but had lost five of seven before that and only averages 61.7 PPG on the road. Lay the points. |
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03-05-22 | Middle Tennessee +2.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion wrap up their regular seasons in Norfolk this afternoon. Both know where they’ll be seeded in the Conference USA Tournament. MTSU won the East Division and thus will get a bye into the quarterfinals. ODU finished fifth in the East and will be playing UTEP in a second round matchup. With nothing really on the line here, you may be wondering why we’re playing this matchup. Well, Middle Tennessee has quietly had a VERY good year. The Blue Raiders are not just 22-8 straight up, but 21-6 against the spread. They are clearly the top threat to West Division Champ North Texas, who is the favorite heading into the C-USA Tournament. The Blue Raiders beat Old Dominion by 15 when they hosted in Murfreesboro last month. It wasn’t a good shooting night for them, but they played great defense and limited the Monarchs to just 48 points and two made three-pointers. MTSU is also coming off a rare loss, which is why I’m on them here. They fell 60-56 in Charlotte on Wednesday. Before that, the Blue Raiders had won eight in a row straight up and covered seven straight games. ODU is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games and is pretty outclassed here. Not sure why they’re favored. |
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03-04-22 | Rockets v. Nuggets -13.5 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Denver had its season-best six-game win streak come to an end in shocking fashion Wednesday night. They lost to the lowly Thunder, at home no less, 119-107 as a 14.5-point favorite. Now they’ll host the only team lower than the Thunder in Western Conference standings, that being Houston. I don’t see the Nuggets making the same mistakes they did two nights ago. Houston has not won a game since February 2nd. They’ve lost 11 straight and have a legit claim to be the worst team in the league. Seven of those 11 straight losses have come by double digits. Making matters worse tonight for the Rockets is that they could be without several key players. Dennis Schroeder has a sprained ankle, Eric Gordon missed the last game with a groin injury and Jae’Sean Tate is also dealing with an ankle. While they were still able to take Utah to overtime on Wednesday, I can’t see a potentially short-handed, bad team being competitive two straight times. Houston is 0-4 ATS off its previous four ATS victories. The Nuggets are 2-0 against the Rockets so far this season. While the first game came down to the final possession, it was a 13-point win in Houston on New Year’s Day. I expect this to be the biggest margin of victory to date. Denver is 4-0-1 ATS off its previous five ATS losses. So all signs point to a bounce back here. |
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03-03-22 | Lakers +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 111-132 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
The Lakers are in serious trouble. Seven games below .500 and in 9th place in the Western Conference. All they can hope for at this point is making the play-in round, which means they’d probably need to win twice to get into the playoffs proper. One spot ahead of the Lakers are the Clippers, but the gap in the standings is 4.5 games. The reason the Clips are lower than expected is due to injuries. They’ve been playing without their two top superstars for awhile now. Kawhi Leonard hasn’t even suited up for a single game this season. So who is going to take this battle of underachieving teams from the City of Angels? I like the Lakers. They should have beaten Dallas on Tuesday. It’s also time for a little payback. The Lakers are 0-3 vs. the Clippers this season, but those three losses have been by a total of eight points. The Clippers’ four-game win streak does include a 105-102 win over the Lakers. But the other three wins were all against Houston. So it’s a bit of a “phony” win streak. The Lakers led the Clippers going into the fourth quarter in that recent meeting. With their backs against the wall, look for LeBron James and company to “step up” here and deliver a big win. |
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03-03-22 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. South Alabama -12 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
South Alabama is seeded fifth, but the Jaguars just might be the best team in the Sun Belt. They absolutely could make a run in this tournament. It starts on Thursday when they play a first round matchup against last place Little Rock. Expect this one to be a blowout. Little Rock obviously did not have a good year. The Trojans finished 8-18 overall and 3-13 in conference play. They were even worse than the oddsmakers though, evident by a lousy 5-16 ATS record as an underdog. On the road, they were beaten by an average of 16.3 points per game. The regular season ended very poorly for Little Rock. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 10. Eight of those nine losses were by double digits. Six were by at least 15 points. These teams met once in the regular season. South Alabama won 77-46 as a 14.5 point favorite. Down 17 at halftime, Little Rock was never competitive. USA won its regular season finale, beating UT Arlington 62-52 last Friday. Look for them to make a statement in the opening game of this tourney. |
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03-02-22 | Miami-FL -4 v. Boston College | Top | 81-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Miami is currently on the right side of the bubble, but they need a strong final week of the regular season. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games, both losses at home, to fall into fourth place in the ACC. Tonight looks like a great chance to get back on track as the Canes travel to face Boston College. Note that they have won three in a row on the road. The last road win was by 21 at Pittsburgh, a team who has a comparable record to BC. Miami has too much offense for their hosts today. The visitors are 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh best in turnover rate. They average 74.7 points per game. BC has lost six of eight and just went down by 10 to Clemson here at home on Saturday. It was the Eagles’ seventh loss by double digits since Jan 19th. Miami has been good on the road. They are 8-2 straight up and against the spread. So lay the small number. |
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03-01-22 | American v. Holy Cross -2 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a first round matchup in the Patriot League Tournament where all games are played at campus sites (higher seed always gets to host). Both American U and Holy Cross finished with the same overall record (9-21 SU), but the latter did better in conference play, finishing 7-11 as opposed to 5-13 for the former. Playing at home is key here for Holy Cross, even though they last won here on February 9th. It’s just a small number we have to lay and the Crusaders have double revenge. That’s right. Two of American’s five league wins came against HC. I just can’t see the underdog sweeping the season series. Holy Cross averaged just 51.5 points per game in the two regular season losses. I expect much better from them offensively here tonight. American U won its final regular season game, beating Loyola MD 65-55. However, the Eagles have failed to win back to back games going all the way back to mid-December. I just think the odds are against them winning here. For what it’s worth, Holy Cross has covered the spread in 14 of its last 17 games played on Tuesday. |
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03-01-22 | Providence +10 v. Villanova | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Providence has already wrapped up the Big East, the first time it has EVER won the conference outright. But there is still a sense of motivation for this one as they look to avoid a season sweep against Villanova. I think that most would agree that ‘Nova is in fact the better team here. The “analytics” don’t love Providence, mostly because of all the close wins the Friars have. But that has led to them getting a lot of points tonight. It’s too many. We’ll take a close loss! To be clear, Providence is 24-3 this year. They lost the first meeting with Villanova by just five points. They are not just 7-1 ATS as an underdog, but also 7-1 straight up! This is a lot of points for the #8 ranked team in the country to be getting. Though it’s their final home game and they haven’t played in a week, ‘Nova doesn’t have much motivation here. At least not to win by a double digit margin. They lost to UConn by two last Tuesday. Three of the previous four meetings have been decided by five points or less. So take the points. |
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02-28-22 | Pacers v. Magic | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Two of the Eastern Conference’s bottom teams square off to start the week. I believe this is a wonderful opportunity for Orlando to make it a rare two straight wins. The Magic won on Friday, beating the Houston Rockets here at home, 119-111. Both Chuma Okeke and Wendell Carter Jr played well. Tonight, Okeke and Carter are set to be joined by former #1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, who is set to make his season debut. As was the case Friday, Orlando is the slight favorite in this game. Indiana, though they won yesterday, is just 4-12 over its last 16 games and basically “disassembled” its roster at the trade deadline. There has been just one time since mid-December that the Pacers have won back to back games. The fact that the Pacers are in the second game of a back to back while the Magic had the weekend off is a big edge to the home team. Orlando overcame a 17-point third quarter deficit to win in Indiana at the beginning of the month. They shouldn’t fall into that kind of hole tonight. Expect them to get the ‘W’ here. |
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02-28-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Hofstra seems locked into third place in the CAA and very well could be taking on tonight’s opponent, Charleston, in the first round of the Conference Tournament. So there’s really nothing on the line in this Monday matchup. But, in their final home game, I look for the Pride to turn in a solid effort to end the regular season. Charleston has been competitive of late, covering the number in four straight games. But they lost Saturday, 80-79 at Drexel, to fall a game below .500 this year in conference play. Tonight will mark the Cougars’ fourth consecutive game on the road. That’s a tough way to end the regular season and the team may very well be “out of gas.” As for Hofstra, this is their fourth straight time playing at home. They had no problem dispatching William & Mary on Saturday, winning that game 83-67. That followed a shocking 81-55 loss to Elon. The Pride have failed to cover the number three straight times, but were also double digit favorites in all those games. This is a solid value, I believe, on Hofstra at home. They are 11-2 SU in home games this season. Also, they defeated Charleston on the road, back in late January. Key to this one is that Charleston is a poor defensive team that has given up an average of 82 points over its last four games. Hofstra has scored 76 or more in five of its last six. Lay the points. |
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02-27-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Golden State’s second half of the season began with a convincing 132-95 win over Portland. Dallas blew a seven-point halftime lead in Utah and lost 114-109. That’s the setup for this Sunday night contest. Yes, the Warriors had failed to cover six in a row going into the All Star Break. But they looked like the best team in the league Thursday, mostly because of Steph Curry, who had a season-high 14 assists to go along with 18 points. These teams have met two times previous to this. The home team won both matchups. Curry struggled to make shots, but I’m banking on him having a big game here. Dallas didn’t have many answers defensively against Utah, allowing the Jazz to hit 54% for the game and 57% in the first half. This is a low number on the Warriors at home. Too low. That’s because Klay Thompson is questionable and Draymond Green is still out. But Curry should lead his team to a win and cover tonight. |
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02-27-22 | St. John's v. DePaul +2 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
DePaul and St. John’s both find themselves in the bottom half of the Big East standings. Both are also coming off a game that was decided by three points. The difference is that St. John’s lost on Wednesday, 81-78 to Creighton, while DePaul was a 68-65 winner over Georgetown on Thursday. The win for DePaul was their first since February 9th, also against Georgetown. In between the two wins over the Hoyas, the Blue Demons dropped four straight. But three of those losses were by three points or less, so they easily could have had a better record this month. They were up 19 in the second half against Providence and lost that game in overtime. St. John’s blew a seven-point halftime lead to Creighton and lost for the third time in the last five games. The biggest problem facing the Red Storm is that they don’t play much defense, especially on the road where they are giving up 78.5 points/game. The Johnnies did beat DePaul 89-84 at home last month. But they’ve been far too inconsistent to expect a season sweep. DePaul averages 76.5 points at home and is 3-0 ATS this season off a Big East win. |
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02-27-22 | Jazz v. Suns -1 | Top | 118-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Big game on this afternoon’s NBA schedule with the Jazz taking on the Suns. The Suns are playing without Chris Paul and are off a loss. Paul being out hurts, but Phoenix is 19-2 over its last 21 games and has the best record in the league. They have not dropped consecutive games since December. For those reasons, I’m siding with the Suns in this one. They are also at home on Sunday. Their home record is 26-6. The Suns are 2-0 vs. the Jazz this season. Both wins were in January. They won 115-109 here at home and 105-97 in Salt Lake City. Utah needed to come from behind to defeat Dallas Friday night, 114-109. The Jazz did not cover the spread in the game. They trailed by seven at halftime. That was the largest halftime deficit they’ve overcome all season. The fact that the Suns haven’t lost back to back games in over two months weighs heavily on this selection. So too does the fact they are basically a “pick ‘em” at home. You won’t get a better value on this team all season. |
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02-27-22 | Illinois v. Michigan | Top | 93-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Illinois (19-8 overall, 12-5 Big 10) is coming off an 86-83 home loss to Ohio State on Thursday, which knocked the Fighting Illini a game back of conference leaders Wisconsin and Purdue. I like them to bounce back here on Sunday, We know that Michigan is without coach Juwan Howard, who is suspended for five games due to the post-game fight with Wisconsin. The Wolverines did show some resolve by going out and beating Rutgers 71-62 on Wednesday, here in Ann Arbor. Michigan is now 8-4 in its last 12 games and their NCAA Tournament prospects are looking a lot better. But I simply think that the Illini are the better team here. They won the season’s first meeting, 68-53 as a 9.5-point favorite. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the last four games against Michigan. Michigan has been far more inconsistent this year. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. They are just 15-11 straight up this year and rate lower than Illinois in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Illinois is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in its last four games as a road favorite of three points or less. |
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02-26-22 | Southern Miss v. Rice -13 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Rice has a wonderful opportunity to win big in its last home game of the season. The Owls are hosting Southern Miss, who is Conference USA’s worst team. The visitors are 6-22 overall this season, 1-14 in conference play. Their last win over a Division I opponent was back on January 6th, by a single point. Two of Southern Miss’ four wins over DI teams this year have been by a single point. So it’s been a bleak year in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles have lost 11 in a row and 10 of those losses have been by double digits. Rice has lost four straight and five of six, but the last two games were decided by a total of six points. There should be ample motivation to give the seniors one final big win at home tonight. Back on January 29th, the Owls beat Southern Miss by 14 on the road. Rice scored 52 points in the second half Thursday. They are averaging 77.9 points at home. Southern Miss averages just over 60 PPG on the road. Lastly, Rice is a perfect 6-0 against the spread the last three seasons when playing at home and the total is between 145 and 149.5. |
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02-26-22 | Cleveland State v. Oakland -1.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Oakland has faded a bit in the Horizon League title chance, losing three straight to fall to 11-7 in conference play and 18-11 overall. That’s three games back of current leader Cleveland State, whom the Golden Grizzlies will play host to this afternoon. I like them to get the job done here. Going back to January 20th, Oakland is just 1-10 against the spread. They have been the favorite for all of those games, except one, a 75-64 loss at Wright State. Their three straight losses have all been here at home, which is shocking as the Golden Grizzlies had previously not lost a home game all season. Cleveland State is also coming off a loss, 74-67 at Detroit. This will be the Vikings’ fifth consecutive road game to end the regular season. Meanwhile, it’s the final home game (Senior Night) for Oakland. While Cleveland State is looking to wrap up the regular season championship, Oakland is desperate to build some momentum for the upcoming Conference Tournament. They defeated Cleveland State, 70-65, as a 1-point road underdog earlier in the season. I can’t see Oakland losing again at home as CSU should be pretty spent, having played so many road games in a row. |
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02-26-22 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -3.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
There are four ranked teams in the Big 12 (Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas) that are the class of the conference. After that, there’s a bit of a drop. Neither Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have had much reason to celebrate lately, as the former is 3-7 its last 10 games and the latter is 2-11 its last 13 games. But someone will have to prevail in “Bedlam” on Saturday. When these teams met on ⅖, the Cowboys prevailed 64-55 in Stillwater. But now the Sooners get the game in Norman with a shot at revenge. OU is off back to back 20+ point losses as well. So they are really desperate here. OSU lost by two at home to Baylor on Monday. The game went to overtime. I had the Cowboys, plus the points, so at the end of the day, I was happy. But OSU has to be a bit deflated, especially with that being their fifth OT game this season. The Cowboys are also banned from postseason play, so you’ve got to question their level of motivation down the stretch. Off an ATS win, they are 2-7 ATS this season. They last covered two straight games in November. The revenge angle and home court advantage should propel Oklahoma to a win Saturday. They’ve lost four in a row to their rivals. They won’t lose again. Lay the short number. |
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02-25-22 | Spurs -2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
The Spurs are better than their record and I think can move up to “steal” the last play-in spot for the Western Conference Playoffs. Among teams out West, San Antonio has the eighth best point differential. The Wizards started the season well, but have really fallen off, especially at the pay window. They are 4-15-1 ATS over the L20 games. Tonight’s spread is simply not generous enough for them to turn these woes around. San Antonio has covered six straight times against teams with losing SU records. Washington comes in at 27-31 SU overall, 11th in the East. But like I said, the Wizards have really fallen off. It wasn’t that long ago they were in the top six. The Spurs are still on their annual Rodeo Road Trip, which began back on Feb 9 in Cleveland. Prior to breaking for All Star Weekend, they’d won three of four. The only loss was to Eastern Conference leader Chicago and even in that game they had the lead going into the fourth quarter. Washington is just 5-12 ATS vs. Western Conference teams this season. |
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02-25-22 | Manhattan +5.5 v. Marist | Top | 56-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Elsewhere, I’ve got a play on the top MAAC team against the bottom MAAC team. Here, we venture to the middle of the conference standings for a game between Manhattan and Marist. I think the value resides with the dog in this one as they won the first meeting. It was 72-66 in favor of Manhattan, back on Jan 30th, when these teams first met. The Jaspers proceeded to lose their next four games, but now have won three straight and can pass Marist for fifth place in the conference. Why is that important? Because the top five teams get first round byes in the conference tournament. After losing five in a row, Marist has now won five in a row. Two of those wins were by just a point though and they were against Qunnipiac and Canisius, who are at the bottom of the league. In another recent win (last Friday vs. Siena), the Red Foxes were down seven at the half. Not only is Marist just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine tries as a favorite, but the team that has been the underdog has covered four of the last five meetings in this MAAC rivalry. Take the points. |
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02-25-22 | Canisius v. Iona -15 | Top | 65-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a mismatch, an even bigger one than what the line suggests. Iona leads the MAAC with a 14-2 conference record. They are 11-0 at home, winning by 12.5 points per game. Tonight they can wrap up the regular season title simply by defeating last place Canisius. Look for this to be a blowout. Iona won the first meeting by eight. But the 70-62 final was a little misleading in the sense that the Gaels were up 19 at the half. It was 35-12 just 15 minutes into the game. Canisius hasn’t won on the road all year. They are 0-14 away from home as they are shooting just 38.2 percent from the field. In their last game, the Golden Griffins scored just 54 points in a home loss to Niagara. That was their seventh loss in the last eight games. Iona ran out to an 18-point victory over Fairfield their last time on the court. That was here at home on Sunday. They used a big second half to cover the 11-point spread. I just can’t see this being a close game. Lay the points. |
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02-25-22 | Northwestern +1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
I like Northwestern here in a battle of two of the five Big 10 teams that aren’t projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats picked up a win earlier this week, at home, 77-65 over Nebraska. Now they look to avenge a four-point home loss where they were eight-point favorites. That first meeting was a little odd. Penn State won because they controlled the glass (40-28 edge in rebounds) and made more free throws (15) than Northwestern even attempted (nine). The Nittany Lions are 308th in the country in points per game, so unless they can replicate those edges in rebounding and free throw shooting, I don’t see them outscoring Northwestern tonight. PSU lost on Monday, 67-61 at Maryland, and you may remember that I took the Terps in that game. The Nittany Lions lost even though Maryland did not make a basket over the game’s final 6:20. Bad sign. Northwestern has covered all four times this season when matched up against an opponent with a losing record. |
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02-24-22 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
No one is going to argue the point that Memphis had a great first half. They have the third best record in the NBA at 41-19 after winning 32 of 41 and 22 of their last 27. Now in the last game before the All Star Break, the Grizzlies did lose, as an 11.5-point favorite to Portland 123-119. But I am willing to chalk that up to a case of looking ahead to the break. Minnesota also had a first half they should be happy with. While not as good as Memphis, the Timberwolves are 31-28 and seventh in the Western Conference. It would be a real shock if they didn’t at least make it out of the play-in round. But here they are overmatched. The Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS against the Timberwolves the last three seasons. The one loss was a bad one, earlier this year in Minnesota. But that was also back in November, before the Grizzlies’ season really took off. Ja Morant had 44 points in the loss to Portland. The Grizzlies are 28-12 vs. the rest of the Western Conference. Minnesota is only 20-18 in such games. Memphis also has a much better record against winning teams. The defensive edge also goes to Memphis. The Timberwolves give up 111.7 points per game, more than you’d like to see, and in the last five games they gave up an average of 121.8 points. Lay the points here. |
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02-23-22 | Chattanooga -3 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The race for the regular season title in the SoCon (Southern Conference) is down to two teams: Chattanooga and Furman. Chattanooga is seemingly in the driver's seat, not just with a one-game lead, but they also swept the season series against Furman. But, after beating Furman for a second time this year, the Mocs have lost two straight: 73-70 to UNC Greensboro and 80-75 to VMI. Even more embarrassing is that both losses came at home. Tonight though, the Mocs can clinch the regular season title, simply by winning at East Tennessee State. When these in-state rivals met on New Year’s Eve, it was all Chattanooga in an 82-52 beatdown. East Tennessee State has not had a good season as they come into the rematch having lost seven of their last nine games. Many of those losses were close, but I just can’t see them winning here against a hungry and better opponent. Chattanooga is a very impressive 21-5-1 ATS its last 27 games against teams that have a losing record. East Tennessee State is 14-15 overall on the year (straight up). This is only the second time this season that Chattanooga has lost back to back games. The first instance saw them rebound with a double digit victory. That is what I expect here. Lay the points. |
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02-22-22 | UNLV v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 62-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Two rivals trying to break from the middle of the Mountain West pack meet Tuesday night in Reno as Nevada hosts UNLV. The home side has won three in a row, though two of those wins came against last place San Jose State. The visiting team has won three of four and five of its last seven, which includes a win over Nevada , 69-58 down in Sin City. The Runnin’ Rebels are 4-0 ATS in the last four games and coming off wins over Fresno State and Colorado State. Beating Colorado State by 21 on Saturday was very impressive. The Rebels have gotten 10 straight games of 17+ points from leading scorer Hamilton and the only time they’ve been beaten in the last four games, it came down to the final minute in Bose. But Nevada is out for revenge Tuesday night and should benefit from the fact they have not played a game since Thursday (when they obliterated San Jose State by 30). The Wolf Pack have won and covered the last three times they’ve hosted UNLV. They shot very poorly in the game at Vegas earlier this year, including 3 of 17 from three. They come into this game shooting 53.7% overall over the last five games. I mentioned earlier that UNLV is off a 21-point over Colorado State. Fortunately for us, the Rebels are just 1-5 ATS the previous six times they have been off a straight up win by 20 or more points. |
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02-22-22 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 85-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Heading into February, Miami was viewed as a legit contender in the ACC. But they’re just 3-3 overall this month and thus falling back to the rest of the pack. Looking at their remaining games, the Hurricanes do have a pretty “easy” schedule and still trail Duke by just two games. Winning tonight at Pittsburgh is a must and I think they get the job done. Pitt had won three in a row, but then lost to Ga Tech 68-62 on Saturday. They were two-point favorites. Even with the recent surge, the Panthers are just 6-11 in ACC games and closer to the bottom then they are to the middle of the pack. Miami is 7-2 on the road this year, straight up and against the spread, so I am not worried about laying a short number here. Pittsburgh is averaging only 62.5 points per game, which is 343rd in the country. I think most would be looking at the Hurricanes a lot more favorably here, had they not wilted in the second half against Virginia on Saturday. The Canes were up by eight at the half in that game, but surrendered a 23-4 second half run and never really recovered. The final score was 74-71. The last five games Miami has allowed a shooting percentage of 50.6. I just don’t see Pitt coming anywhere close to that. |
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02-21-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +4.5 | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
#7 Baylor heads to Stillwater tonight to face Oklahoma State. This is Ok State’s second straight week playing on “Big Monday” (ESPN). The Cowboys certainly are hoping this week goes better than last when they lost to Kansas 76-62 as a 10.5-point dog. I believe it will! The obvious difference between this week and last is that OSU is playing at home. They have a much better record in Stillwater (9-5 SU), which is where they just defeated Kansas State on Saturday, 82-79. Though it ended up going into overtime, the Cowboys led most of that game. Now Baylor is clearly much better than Kansas State. But the Bears have struggled a bit on their travels recently, dropping three of their last four road games. You could argue that all three teams Baylor lost to on the road are better than Ok State. I won’t disagree with you on that. But Ok State also already holds a win over Baylor this year, having gone to Waco and come out ahead 61-54 as 14-point road underdogs. They held the Bears to 31% shooting for the game. It was Baylor’s second straight loss at the time. Baylor is just 2-5 ATS its last seven games overall. They are playing short-handed right now with a couple of players injured. A lack of depth will catch up with them on the road. Take the points. |
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02-20-22 | Lehigh v. Loyola Maryland -4.5 | Top | 42-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Loyola MD has lost four straight and six of seven. But most of those losses have been close. Three of them were by four points or less. So the recent record could be alot better for the Greyhounds. I like them today, at home, as they look to sweep the season series from Lehigh. A win today would pull Loyola even with Lehigh for fourth place in the Patriot League. Obviously, based on head to head results, they’d have the tiebreak. A loss would drop the Greyhounds and have them in danger of having to play a first round game in the Conference Tournament. They obviously want to avoid that. Lehigh is off a win, 86-77 over Bucknell, but before that had lost four of five. The road has been unkind this year to the Mountain Hawks as they are 3-10 SU away. The last road win for them was just over a month ago. Loyola won the first meeting 69-57 and was a two-point favorite. Looking at the line here and comparing it to the first meeting, it seems like we’re getting a pretty great value. This is a huge game for the home team. I really like them in this spot. |
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02-19-22 | Oregon +13.5 v. Arizona | Top | 81-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is the ultimate buy low spot on Oregon, who just suffered a terrible loss at Arizona State on Thursday. Despite being favored by five points, the Ducks ended up losing the game 81-57. It was their worst loss of the season and a costly one for their NCAA Tournament prospects. Few will give Oregon a shot tonight playing at Arizona. It’s not just the bad loss on Thursday. Arizona is ranked #3 in the country. But, like I said, it’s time to buy low on Oregon. Expect them to come out with a flurry. Last Saturday, Arizona found itself down 14 early to Washington before being able to come back. It was another slow start in Thursday’s win over Oregon State. The Wildcats, talented as they are, can’t just keep starting slow and blowing teams out in the second half. It’s unsustainable. Oregon was the #13 team in the country in the preseason poll and has beaten Arizona seven consecutive times. This is the first time they’ve been a double digit dog this season. The most points they’ve gotten previously, in any game, was +9.5 at UCLA. The Ducks ended up winning that game 84-81. This is a great time to take the points. |
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02-19-22 | Murray State -15.5 v. Tenn-Martin | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
I’ve been VERY impressed with what Murray State is doing. The Racers have gotten themselves into the Top 25 by winning 15 in a row and can now probably count on being an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament if they fail to win the Ohio Valley Tournament next month. Only two other teams in America, besides Murray State, don’t have a conference loss. They are Gonzaga and South Dakota State. In their last game, the Racers blew past Austin Peay for a 91-56 win and cover. From the opening tip, there was little doubt they’d cover the 18.5-point spread. I expect a similar win here today against Tenn-Martin. This is a tough one for Tenn-Martin, who just hosted Morehead State, who is another of the Ohio Valley’s better teams. The Skyhawks did cover that game, as nine-point dogs, but barely - they lost 68-60 and that was despite having the halftime lead. Tenn-Martin has now dropped four straight games. The first meeting between these teams was actually rather close. Murray State won by only eight, despite being 22 point favorites at home. But that was early enough in the season that Tenn-Martin still had hope. At this point, they know they cannot compete with a nationally ranked team and I expect that to show Saturday afternoon. |
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02-19-22 | Auburn -3.5 v. Florida | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
#2 Auburn is back in action Saturday, looking to continue its outstanding form in the SEC this season. The Tigers are 12-1 in conference play so far and winning by an average of 10.4 points per game. Very impressive. After double digit wins at home over Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, the Tigers will now head to Gainesville to face Florida. The Gators are not in peak form right now. Not only have they failed to cover the spread in five straight games, they’ve lost the last two on the scoreboard as well. Those losses were both on the road, one by a single point (to Texas A&M) and the other to Kentucky. But if you’re expecting this team to step up as a home dog, better think again. Florida is 0-6 ATS the past six times it has been a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Gators also have just one “Quad 1” win on the year. They lost the first meeting, at Auburn, by a score of 85-73. They didn’t cover as 7.5 point underdogs. The bottom line is that I just don’t think the home team is good enough to “hang around” the #2 ranked team in the country for 40 minutes. Lay the points |
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02-19-22 | Boston College v. Syracuse -8.5 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
It is very clear that Syracuse is an entirely different team when playing at the Carrier Dome. The Orange are 9-3 here and averaging 86.3 points. That scoring average is up from their overall average of 77.3 for the season. They are shooting 51.4% from the field in home games, which includes an incredible 42.5% from three. So I have zero hesitation in laying the points here against BC, who is 1-10 away from home. The Eagles have won just four ACC games this season and come into today on a four-game losing streak. One of those four losses came at home to Syracuse, 73-64. Given the ‘Cuse shot just 39.3% that day and how they shoot at home, this figures to be a long afternoon for Boston College at the defensive end. I like the way the schedule breaks for Syracuse as well. They’d won four in a row before running into Va Tech last Saturday. The Orange have had a week to recover from their 71-59 loss in Blacksburg. Meanwhile, BC just played at Notre Dame on Wednesday and lost in overtime. Lay the points |
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02-18-22 | Maryland -2 v. Nebraska | Top | 90-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
It’s been a disappointing season for Maryland (they were once ranked!), but the Terps ought to be favored by more against the worst team in the Big 10. The Big 10 is obviously a tough league as it could be putting nine teams in the NCAA Tournament. Of the five unlikely Big Dance participants, four (Penn State, N’western, Maryland, Minnesota) are pretty evenly matched. But then there’s a huge drop with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are dead last with a 1-13 Big 10 record. The one win came last week at home vs. Minnesota. But then they got smashed by Iowa on Super Bowl Sunday. That was the fifth time this season that the team suffered a loss by more than 20 points against a conference foe. Also on Sunday, Maryland had a 12 point lead at Purdue in the second half with 11 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately, they blew all of it and lost 62-61. That was the Terrapins’ second one-possession loss to a ranked team in the last four games. I just think the Terps are simply the better team, even if Eric Ayala is out again. They are 16-3 ATS when on a losing streak of three or more games. |
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02-18-22 | Columbia v. Harvard -15 | Top | 54-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Harvard has lost three straight games and finds itself in the bottom half of the Ivy League standings. But tonight is a get well game against Columbia, who as you can tell (from the line) is not good at all. Columbia is in fact last in the Ivy with a 1-9 conference record. They are 4-18 overall on the year. The Lions’ lone conference win was by four points (over Penn!), all the way back on January 8th. In the last game, they got destroyed, losing to Yale by 25 at home. The Lions’ current eight-game losing streak actually began with a 91-82 setback at Harvard. The spread for that game was 10 points so Columbia covered. But they also shot a season-high 55% overall from the floor and 48% from three. Those numbers won’t be repeated tonight. Three of Harvard’s last four defeats have been by four points or less and two were to conference leader Yale. It was an eight-point loss at second place Penn last Saturday. So the Crimson have been facing the Ivy League’s elite recently and coming up short. This drop in class should guarantee a favorable result. I mentioned earlier that Columbia scored just 59 points in its last game. Well, the last nine times after a game where they scored 60 or less, they are 1-8 ATS. Lay the points. |
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02-17-22 | Mavs -3 v. Pelicans | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Were Dallas to win here, that would make it six wins in the last seven games, going into the All Star Break. The only loss was by two to the Clippers, who they had just beaten the previous game. Tonight the Mavs are in the Big Easy to face the Pelicans and I like their chances of getting another win. Dallas is pretty solidly a top six team in the Western Conference right now. That didn’t stop them from making some moves at the trade deadline and the two new additions have already been a big help. Davis Bertans and Spencer Dinwiddie were instrumental in the Mavs’ bench outscoring the Heat’s 38-25 in a 107-99 upset on Tuesday. That was a solid win for the Mavs, on the road, and the fact they did it with Luka Doncic going just 5 of 19 from the field speaks volumes. Doncic didn’t even have any fourth quarter points in the win over Miami. He had previously averaged 43 points over the previous three games. New Orleans has lost three of four, all the games coming at home. All three losses have been by double digits. They did not shoot well from three in a 121-109 loss to Memphis on Tuesday. I just see the Mavs solidly as the better team and have no problem laying a short number in this one. They are 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings. |
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02-17-22 | Heat v. Hornets +5 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
With a win here, MIami would go into the All Star Break tied (with Chicago) for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. But Charlotte will not roll over on Thursday as they are rather desperate for a win to close out the first half. Tuesday brought a particularly painful loss for the Hornets, in Minnesota, where they led most of the way only to fall in overtime. It was their eighth loss in nine games, the one win being against Detroit. Still 9th in the East, it’s getting a little “too close to comfort” when it comes to the cut line for the play-in round. Shockingly, Charlotte has lost its last six home games. This is a team that averages 113.9 points per game, most in the NBA, but during the six game home losing streak they have scored more than 101 just two times. I’m expecting more points from the home team tonight. They are 0-2 so far against the Heat this season, scoring just 86 and 99 points in those losses. Again, that’s atypical from a team that leads the league in scoring. Miami only scored 99 in a home loss to the Mavericks on Tuesday. It’s hard to win big on the road and with this being the final game before the All Star Break, I can see the Heat being flat. Two thirds of their losses have come on the road. More motivated and at home, Charlotte covers the spread here. |
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02-16-22 | Rockets v. Suns -15.5 | Top | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Look for the Suns to rock and roll tonight. Yes, this is the second game of a back to back for them, they are laying double digits and it’s their last game before the All Star Break. But the opponent is Houston, the worst team in the conference. Phoenix has been the NBA’s best team in the first half of the season. Since January 10th, they’ve lost only once and that was almost two weeks ago, at Atlanta. Last night saw them record a sixth straight victory, beating the Clippers 103-96. Two prior meetings this year vs. the Rockets have gone well. The Suns won those games by a combined 38 points. Houston has won just once in its last ten games. Last time out, they lost by 34 to the Jazz. It was the third time in the past five games where the Rockets surrendered more than 130 points. They are 2-8 ATS this season after giving up 130+ points in the previous game. The Suns have every conceivable edge in this matchup. Unless, for some reason, they choose “not to care,” they will win big. Lay the points. |
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02-16-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Spurs ought to have a better record. They have scored roughly the same number of points that they have allowed this season. They have a positive efficiency rating, which means they also score more than they allow on a per possession basis. Several teams ahead of them in the West - such as the Clippers and Lakers - cannot say any of the above. Yet the Spurs are somehow buried 14 games under .500 and in 12th place in the conference. Statistically, they are probably the eighth best team. Does this mean they are likely to make a run in the second half? I’m not sure about that. But I am confident they can wax Oklahoma City tonight. The Thunder are one of two hopeless teams in the West. If not for the Rockets, they’d be in last place. They did win last time out, as a 10-point dog, beating New York 126-124. I’ll concede the fact that the Thunder have been more competitive than you think. They are 37-19 ATS for the season. But tonight marks the first time in six games where Oklahoma City is NOT a double digit underdog. The last time this happened, they lost by 10 to a bad Sacramento team. The last time the Thunder and Spurs met, the latter won by 22. OKC still doesn’t have its leading scorer back (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). The Spurs had won three of four before letting one slip away in Chicago Monday night (led by 6 going into the fourth quarter). They have some new reserves coming in that were acquired at the deadline. Lay the points here. |
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02-16-22 | Chicago State v. Stephen F Austin -19 | Top | 71-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Chicago State is one of the very worst teams in the country and I don’t think SF Austin will have any problem handling them in this Wednesday night WAC matchup. Look no further than what happened last week, in SF Austin’s last game. They crushed Chicago State, on the road, 81-61 as a 12-point favorite. That was the Lumberjacks’ fourth consecutive win and cover. Chicago State has lost six in a row and they’ve played another game since the 20-point loss to SF Austin. It was a 13-point loss, also at home, to Sam Houston State. The Cougars are now 2-10 in conference play this season. Even worse, they are 2-12 overall on the road. SF Austin is two games off the lead in the WAC, so there’s no reason to expect there to be any kind of “letdown” tonight. If anything, it should be a focused effort as the team looks to make its move up the WAC standings. The remaining schedule looks advantageous. Meanwhile, Chicago State has had less time to get ready for this rematch and they know anything short of a miracle run in the WAC Tournament means their season is over. For all intents and purposes, it already is over. The Cougars are averaging less than 60 points/game on the road. Lay the points. |
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02-15-22 | Wyoming v. New Mexico +6 | Top | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Wyoming has won six straight and now finds itself ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in seven seasons. With them laying points on the road tonight, it just feels like the right opportunity to fade the Cowboys. New Mexico is 8-2 ATS and averaging 78.6 points at home this year. “The Pit” is not an easy place to win at. The Lobos should be well prepared for this game. Over the last 10 days, they’ve only played once and it was a blowout over a non-Division I opponent. (They won 78-46). Wyoming’s six-game win streak has featured three two-point victories as well as two others by seven or less. Two of the wins went to overtime. The one blowout came on Saturday, at San Jose State, who is the worst team in the Mountain West. The Cowboys actually have FIVE two-point victories since January 15th. One of them came against New Mexico on 1/22. That game in Laramie ended up being a 93-91 final. New Mexico never trailed by more than 10 points in that game and shot 53.7% from the field. Wyoming shot 58% in that first meeting, a number they will not match tonight. With so many close wins recently and a national ranking next to their name, I can see the Cowboys being a little overconfident here. I can see an upset taking place. Grab the points. |
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02-15-22 | Hornets +6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 120-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Minnesota has been on a bit of a roll of late. Charlotte has not. This has led to a spread that is much larger than what it should be for tonight’s matchup, at least in my opinion. The Timberwolves have been favored in less than half their games this season. The percentage was even more skewed before the last couple weeks when they faced the likes of the Pistons (twice) and the Kings (twice). Those are some of the weakest teams in the league. While Charlotte is struggling right now, they are a lot closer to average over the course of the season. The Hornets have faced some of the league’s top teams during this losing streak that has seen them drop seven of eight. They lost to Boston (who is red hot) by six, to Cleveland by one and also faced Memphis, Miami and Toronto. Minnesota is a step below all of those teams. Back in November, Charlotte beat Minnesota 133-115. They are 4-0 ATS their last four meetings with the Timberwolves. Also, the Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. Take the points. |
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02-15-22 | Texas -1 v. Oklahoma | Top | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Back on January 11th, Texas picked up its largest win over Oklahoma in over a decade. They were 66-52 winners in Austin. I think they’re more than capable of simply winning again here in Norman. It was just last Monday when the Longhorns upset Kansas 79-76. That was also in Austin. Unfortunately, things didn’t go UT’s way on Saturday when they visited Baylor (lost 80-63). But that was a tough spot, facing a second top 10 opponent in less than a week. Oklahoma has had a similar last seven days. They picked up a big win at home (over Texas Tech) then lost on the road (at Kansas). Their road loss was by just two points, so it was a better showing than what Texas had. But seriously doubt anyone thinks the Sooners are the better team here. In fact, OU has lost eight of its last ten games. Texas has the #2 scoring defense in the country, holding teams to just 56.8 points per game. I already mentioned how they held Oklahoma to 52 in the first meeting. Since that game, the Sooners have failed to score 60 three other times. I don’t expect many points from the home team tonight. Go with the road team to win and complete the season sweep. |
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02-14-22 | Spurs v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
The Bulls are back on a winning run, having captured each of the last three games. They did not cover Saturday against Oklahoma City, but that was a large number. The previous two wins were both by 12 points. The Spurs are in the midst of their annual “Rodeo Road Trip.” Things didn’t get off to a great start with a loss at Cleveland on Feb 9, but the Spurs have since pulled back to back upsets, beating Atlanta and New Orleans. A third straight upset seems unlikely though. I say that based on the fact the Spurs are still 13 games below .500. Their last three game win streak was around Christmas time. Chicago has DeMar DeRozan, who has scored 30 or more points in six consecutive games, the longest stretch by anyone in a Bulls uniform since Michael Jordan. Nikola Vucevic had 31 points and 15 rebounds against Oklahoma City. With a 21-8 record at the United Center, the Bulls are a very strong home team. They are also 23-14 ATS when favored this year. Lay the points |
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02-14-22 | Lafayette v. Colgate -13.5 | Top | 61-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Let’s check in on the Patriot League where Colgate is in first place with a 10-2 record. The Raiders are just 14-11 overall, but have won six straight and are looking like the class of this conference right now. They are 8-1 at home this season and host Lafayette on Monday. Lafayette is off a rare win on Saturday as they went to Lehigh and pulled a 73-69 upset as four-point underdogs. The Leopards are still just 8-15 overall and 5-7 in conference games, however. They already lost to Colgate once this year, 72-61 as 8.5 point home underdogs. Colgate has covered the spread in each of the last four games, three times as a double digit favorite. At home, they are putting up an average of 77.1 points per game while allowing just 59.9. So this should be a pretty easy game for the favorite. |
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02-13-22 | Marshall v. UTEP -6 | Top | 88-79 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
UTEP saw its six game win streak snapped on Monday. They lost 66-58 to North Texas, who is the best team in Conference USA this year. At least the Miners left with the cash, covering as 10-point underdogs. It was early in the second half when things fell apart. The Miners should have no concerns today as they are taking on a Marshall team that has been a disaster to bet on all season. The Thundering Herd are, get this, 4-18 against the spread. They are 1-10 ATS in conference play, 2-8 ATS as an underdog and 1-9 ATS on the road. It’s the first meeting in almost two years for these two schools. UTEP, already the better team, has a nice edge as they’ve been off for the last five days while Marshall was just in action on Thursday, losing by one at home to FIU, a game they were expected to win by six points. UTEP only gives up 62.4 points per game at home. Marshall is allowing 80.4 on the road. Lay the points in this one. |
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02-12-22 | Clippers v. Mavs -7 | Top | 99-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is the second meeting in three days for the Clippers and the Mavericks. The latter took Thursday’s game, which was also here in Dallas, 112-105. Hours after saying goodbye to teammate Kristaps Porzingis (traded to Washington), Luka Doncic ran wild with a 51-point game. The Clippers have failed to cover their last five games. Blame the defense. During the 0-5 ATS skid, they are giving up an average of 123.2 points per contest. That is bad. Dallas has won four straight, all at home. They now have a 20-10 home record for the season. They are simply better than the Clippers, who are still without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. So can the Mavericks cover the spread again? I think so. They’re playing good defense this year: #3 in points allowed for the season, allowing 101.4 points per game at home and 100.6 the last five games. Before losing to Dallas on Thursday, LA was blown out in two straight games. They lost by 24 to Milwaukee and 26 to Memphis. Lay the points here. |
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02-12-22 | DePaul +9.5 v. Providence | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Providence brings a 20-2 record and #11 ranking into Saturday’s game vs. DePaul. But I get the sense that the Friars are a little overrated. They did end up blowing out Georgetown on Sunday, 71-52, but were trailing at the half. Before that, it was three straight wins by four points or less. DePaul is near the bottom of the Big East, only ahead of Georgetown, but the Blue Demons are on a win streak. They’ve won two in a row. One was against G’town, but the other was a win at Xavier where they 13.5 point underdogs. The season’s first meeting between DePaul and Providence was played on New Year’s Day. Providence won 70-53 as DePaul shot just below 30 percent for the game. Interestingly, the Blue Demons were small favorites to win that day. I like the underdog’s chance at revenge today, or at least covering the spread. Providence is only 7-7 ATS when favored and 0-1 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. I simply believe that Providence is “living on borrowed time.” As a favorite of this size, which is rare for them, they should be faded. |
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02-12-22 | Texas A&M +12 v. Auburn | Top | 58-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Auburn suffered just its second loss of the season on Tuesday. It was at Arkansas on Tuesday, 80-76. The top-ranked Tigers were only 1.5 point favorites for the game, so it can be argued that the oddsmakers “saw that coming.” Prior to the setback, two of Auburn’s last four wins were by two points or fewer. Since January 11th, they have five single digit victories. I know that a return home (where the team is 12-0 this year) has most on “The Plains” thinking about a bounce back, but this is a pretty big number the Tigers are laying. Texas A&M will be both desperate and motivated. The Aggies’ last win was all the way back on January 15th. But of the seven consecutive games that they have lost, the final margin has never been larger than 11 points. Four have been by six points or fewer. So they’ve remained competitive, despite adversity. Surprisingly, A&M has won five of the previous six matchups in the series! They were also 4-0 in SEC play before this seven-game skid. One of the four wins came against the Arkansas team that just beat Auburn. The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. Take the points here. |
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02-11-22 | Nevada v. Utah State -11.5 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Utah State looks to bounce back from a tough two-point defeat at Wyoming. They are hosting Nevada, who is in real trouble now after taking a sixth straight loss on Tuesday. I think it’s fair to say that - in the Mountain West - there’s a pretty severe dropoff after the top six teams. Nevada is not in that top six. Utah State is. Now the Aggies are technically in seventh in the standings, behind UNLV. But not only do I think they are better than the Rebels, USU is better than several teams ahead of them. The KenPom ratings have them as the second best team in the conference, literally right behind Boise State. The Aggies are 31st in those KenPom ratings. So this is a good team. They’d won five straight, all by double digits, before losing at Wyoming on Tuesday. That game went to overtime, by the way. What’s most interesting about Utah State’s 6-6 conference record is that - like I said - five of the wins have come by double digits. Four of the losses have been decided by three points or less. Five of Nevada’s six straight losses have come by 10 or more. One of those was to Utah State, 78-49, and that was at home! In Logan, it’s hard to imagine the Wolf Pack playing well. Lay the points. |
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02-11-22 | St Bonaventure +5.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
incorrectly entered play |
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02-11-22 | Thunder v. 76ers -12.5 | Top | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Well, this game is not likely to be close. Oklahoma City has lost three in a row and 10 of its last 13. They are 17-37 on the season. The last three losses have all been by double digits. Meanwhile, you’ve got Philadelphia coming off a loss. So they should be plenty motivated. Plus, they just traded for James Harden, so there will be a renewed sense of optimism here. The last 10 times Philly has been off an ATS loss, they are 9-1 ATS. Harden likely won’t play on Friday, but the 76ers won’t need him. Joel Embiid has scored 25 or more points in 21 straight games. He had 34 points and 12 rebounds Tuesday against Phoenix. While the Sixers are just 1-3 in February, they closed January with a five-game win streak. They are fifth in the Eastern Conference with a 32-22 record. Back in October they defeated the Thunder by 12 points and that was in Oklahoma City. They are now 17-5 ATS L22 games vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400. OKC lost its leading scorer awhile ago and it shows. Already the league’s lowest scoring team, the Thunder have failed to hit 100 in four of the last six games. Lay the points in this one. |
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02-11-22 | Long Beach State v. Hawaii -3 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Let’s go with one more on tonight’s College Hoops card. Long Beach State (aka “The Beach”) has to leave the mainland for this game at Hawaii. The Beach is on a nine-game winning streak - straight up and against the spread. But Honolulu is a hard place to win. Hawaii is back home after losing two in a row on the road. Those losses were by five (at UC Riverside) and three points (UC Davis). Prior to that, the Warriors had won seven in a row while covering the spread all but once. That one ATS failure came as a 13-point favorite. At home, Hawaii is 4-0 straight up in conference play. Also, earlier in the year they went to Long Beach and won 72-65 as a one-point underdog. That was the Big West opener for both teams. LBSU hasn’t lost since, so it feels like this is a “collision course” for the two teams here. CS Fullerton is also 7-2 in Big West play, but a Hawaii win here would have them feeling VERY good about capturing the regular season conference crown. The Beach were down five to CS Fullerton, at halftime, in their last game. They have not had the halftime lead in any game since 1/27 vs. UC Riverside. I just can’t see them covering such a short number at arguably the toughest place to play in the entire Big West. |
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02-10-22 | UC-Santa Barbara -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
UCSB, to me, is much better than its 9-9 SU record. The Gauchos’ problem has been a 1-7 record (SU and ATS) on the road where nearly every loss has been close. Their last time on the road, they lost 65-62 to Hawaii, a game where third leading scorer Ajare Sanni left in the second half with an ankle injury. Sanni hasn’t played since, but I don’t see him listed on the injury report for tonight. His potential would be a big boon for a team that actually leads the Big West in scoring margin. UCSB did win big in its last game, beating UC San Diego by a score of 84-48. While just 2-5 SU in its last seven games, three of those losses for the Gauchos have been by three points or less. This team has been somewhat unlucky so far. But remember they are the reigning Big West Champs and were projected to finish first again, back in November. I think that we’re getting a great number here as Cal State Bakersfield has dropped five in a row. UCSB shoots the ball well, right at 48.5% for the season. That’s 18th in Division I! The Gauchos have had a double digit lead in three of their four conference losses and the other one was a one-point loss. Lay the short number with the road team. |
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02-10-22 | Nets +3 v. Wizards | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Last night, in College Basketball, I said “something had to give” in the California-Oregon State matchup. My call on that one ended up being right. Now we turn to a similar situation in the NBA with the Nets taking on the Wizards. Brooklyn has lost its last nine games. That seems inconceivable, but Kevin Durant hasn’t played in any of them while James Harden and Kyrie Irving have also both missed time for their own reasons. Of the three, only Irving is set to play tonight’s game. (Harden could be traded?) Fortunately, for the Nets, tonight’s game is against a Washington team that has lost eight of its last nine games and is 2-14 ATS in its last 16. The Wizards just learned that leading scorer Bradley Beal is done for the season. I’d say the team’s season is now done as well. Who will win tonight? I say Brooklyn. They are 17-11 on the road and the better team, even without Durant and Harden. Thus, I will gladly take the points. The Wizards’ starting lineup is Aaron Holiday, Spencer Dinwiddie, Thomas Bryant, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma. The only teams in the East with worse YTD point differentials are Orlando and Detroit. |
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02-10-22 | William & Mary v. Towson -17.5 | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Towson may be 1.5 games behind UNC Wilmington, but I think they’re the best team in the CAA. Tonight, the Tigers are massive favorites over William & Mary, deservedly so. W&M is a bottom tier team in the Colonial that has won just two times since the New Year. One of four programs to be eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never make one, W&M is going to see that dubious streak extended this year. As for the question of whether or not Towson can cover this large spread, I believe that they can. That may sound strange as the Tigers are coming off an embarrassing loss, 58-53 to Northeastern, who is the last place team in the conference. But if you don’t think that will have the Tigers motivated, then guess again. The loss to Northeastern, who I believe is better than W&M, saw Towson make just 1 of 15 three-point attempts. Obviously, that is what cost them the game. The loss also occurred out on the road. At home, the Tigers are 8-2 this year, the only losses coming to UNCW and a very good San Francisco team. William & Mary has lost its last two games by a combined 45 points. This is not just the worst team in the CAA, but one of the bottom 20 teams in the entire country, in my estimation. The Tribe are 347th in offensive efficiency and 304th in defensive efficiency. This has blowout written all over it. |
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02-09-22 | California +1.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
It remains to be seen how many teams from the Pac 12 are going to make the Big Dance. But barring a stunning run in the Conference Tournament, we know that neither of these teams will be in the field of 68. Oregon State was an Elite 8 team last March, which was a stunning run for a team seeded 12th and not favored in any of its final eight games. This season has been much more rough for the Beavers. They are 3-17, including 1-9 in the Pac 12 where they are in last place. So this is a great spot to take Cal, in my view, even though the Bears aren’t having a good season themselves. But they are better than Oregon State. Back in December, they defeated the Beavers 73-61 as a 2.5-point favorite in Berkeley. Cal comes into the rematch on a 10-game losing streak while OSU has lost seven in a row. Something has to give. Cal was at least competitive in a loss to Washington State on Saturday. Oregon State’s last three losses have all been by at least 22 points and they have multiple players listed as questionable for tonight. Back the road team. |
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02-09-22 | Spurs v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Cleveland has been THE biggest surprise this year. At the start of the season, most had them ranked near the bottom of the league. But here we are, almost at the All-Star Break, and the Cavs have a 33-21 SU record. If you were betting on the Cavs in the early portion of the season, then congrats. From November 1st through December 18th, they went an incredible 19-3-2 against the spread. Oddsmakers started to catch up to what was going on in Cleveland, but now the team is even stronger. Trading for Caris LeVert and the impending return of Darius Garland make this a true force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have won two in a row after beating LeVert’s old team (Indiana) on Sunday. They had to rally from a 20-point deficit, but still ended up winning by 13. As home favorites this year, the Cavs are not only 13-2 straight up, but winning by an average of 12.7 points per game. That’s impressive. San Antonio hasn’t played since Friday when they defeated Houston 131-106. This is the start of the annual “Rodeo Road Trip” as they won’t be at home again until March 3rd. The biggest issue for the Spurs tonight is that it’s been more than a month since they won back to back games. I’ll lay the short number. |
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02-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -6 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
It wasn’t that long ago that I took UMBC as an underdog, and they came through, pulling the outright win. In fact, it was exactly one week ago. They were +2.5 at Albany and won 59-53. The Retrievers then returned home on Saturday and beat New Hampshire 88-77, obviously a much more high scoring affair. While Vermont is basically assured of winning the regular season crown in the America East, UMBC now has a great shot at finishing second after winning its last five games. When I took them last Tuesday, I obviously expected a straight up win. Here, UMBC is favored, but this time they are playing at home and against a Hartford team that should offer little resistance. The Hawks have only won five games all year. It’s been three straight losses to open February for Hartford as they continue to sink to the bottom of the conference standings. They just played Monday, losing 85-75 to UMass-Lowell. In my view, the quick turnaround puts them at a severe disadvantage. It’s the second road game in three nights. The Retrievers have captured 8 of the last 10 meetings against the spread. Lay the points. |
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02-08-22 | Magic v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Portland has been a disappointment. But covering a small number, at home, against the league’s worst team sounds doable? Orlando, who is 12-43 on the year, has dropped two in a row by a combined 53 points after previously winning four of six. That 4-2 stretch was the Magic’s best run of the season. The last two games have brought a return to form as they lost by 20 to Memphis and 33 to Boston. Those were both home games. The road has seen them go 7-23 thus far. You look at this spread and if one were inclined to back the underdog, then it’s an admission that you think they have a good chance of winning the game. I would almost never expect Orlando to win. Now Portland has lost five in a row and seven of eight. So this matchup is just what the doctor ordered as far as they are concerned. They’ve beaten the Magic 10 straight times, including 98-88 in Orlando on January 17th. Before getting blitzed by Milwaukee on Saturday, the Blazers had held three straight opponents under 100 points. They’ve already done that once to Orlando. I think they can do it again as the Magic come in as the league’s third lowest scoring team. Lay the points. |
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02-08-22 | Pacific v. USC -19.5 | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Pacific is having a dreadful season as the Tigers are 4-16 ATS, the worst such record in the country. It’s about to get worse as they’ll play three times in the next five days. The next two games are against nationally ranked teams, USC and Gonzaga. Running into USC now is a bad deal for Pacific. The Trojans were lucky not to go 0-2 last week. They had to come from behind to beat Arizona State, then were outclassed by Arizona. So USC dropped two spots, down to #21 in the latest rankings. But I’m expecting a focused effort here as they step out of conference for what should be a very easy game. This is a team that plays in the Pac 12. They’ll welcome an opportunity to face one of the weakest West Coast Conference teams, at home no less. This was a hastily scheduled game, replacing Oklahoma State on the schedule. The Trojans were supposed to take on the Cowboys back on Dec 21, but COVID had other ideas. Going from facing OK State to Pacific is a big break for the Trojans. The Trojans’ height will be too much for Pacific. In addition, there’s no way they won’t shoot better here than they did vs. Arizona where they were 34.3% from the field. Drew Peterson was 1 of 13. Pacific is 0-9 on the road - straight up and against the spread. Lay the points. |
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02-07-22 | Suns -6 v. Bulls | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Playing for a second straight day, Chicago should be no match for a Phoenix team that’s won 12 of its last 13 games. While this is a matchup of first place teams in the respective conferences, one team is clearly better than the other. The Bulls lost Sunday, 119-108 to Philadelphia. They were also home dogs in that one. There is a long list of injured players right now as Zach LaVine and Coby White joined Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso on the bench yesterday. Defensively, Chicago has issues. They’ve given up at least 115 points in six straight games. Yesterday, they found themselves down 17 in the fourth quarter before a late rally made things a little interesting. Look for the Suns to have no mercy on the Bulls tonight. The Western Conference leaders held Washington to 80 points in an easy win on Saturday. They led by 34 going into the fourth quarter. DeMar DeRozan really tried yesterday for the Bulls, scoring 45 points in 41 minutes. There’s no way he’s going to be able to match that performance here though. Lay the points. |
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02-07-22 | Montana State -10 v. Idaho State | Top | 72-53 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Look for Montana State to roll here. The Bobcats are facing an Idaho State team that is just plain lousy. But what makes this play particularly appetizing is that Idaho State is coming off an upset win. The Bengals stunned Montana, 86-63 as 9.5-point dogs, over the weekend. Before that, Idaho State had lost five in a row with four of the losses coming by double digits. Montana State is trending in a much different direction. They are on an eight game win streak entering Monday and trail Weber State, who they just beat, by only two in the win column. Montana State beat Idaho State by 20 the first time they met. They held the Bengals to 25.5% shooting and 3 of 23 from three-point range. In the second half, they outscored them 37-21. Montana State didn’t just beat Weber State over the weekend. They did so by 21 points, on the road. That’s a very impressive performance against the Big Sky leaders. The Bobcats are averaging 78.2 points per game on the road and have covered both times they’ve been a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Idaho State is only averaging 62.9 points per game this season. They have a 4-16 straight up record. My view is that they should be faded off what was easily their best performance in conference play. Lay the points here. |
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02-07-22 | New Hampshire v. Stony Brook -4 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
For reasons out of the players’ control, Stony Brook finds itself in a tough position. Because the school is moving to the Colonial Athletic Association next year, the America East ruled them ineligible for the conference tournament. That means the Seawolves will need to receive an at-large bid to make the NCAA tournament, which seems unlikely. Has this had an effect on the court? Well, Stony Brook has dropped two in a row and three of its last four. This skid has dropped the Seawolves closer to the middle of the pack in the America East standings. But I feel, because of the recent losses, we’re able to get a great number here. New Hampshire is not a team you should be afraid to bet against. Saturday, the Wildcats gave up 88 points in a loss at UMBC. Going back to the start of January, they’ve been alternating wins and losses. While that pattern would seem to indicate a win tonight, take note of the fact New Hampshire is 0-4 ATS this season when playing with just one day of rest between games. Stony Brook returns home after a bad loss at NJIT, who had previously dropped seven in a row. That game was decided on a late three. The Seawolves have also dropped two straight home games, but one was to Vermont, who is 10-0 in the conference. I sense there will be a tremendous motivation to win here after the America East’s ruling and because the Seawolves don’t want to lose another home game. New Hampshire is 1-8 on the road this year and has not won a single time as an underdog (0-6). Lay the points. |
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02-06-22 | Iona v. Niagara +7.5 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
Vermont, Houston, Longwood, Wagner, Murray State, Auburn, South Dakota State, Gonzaga … and Iona. Those are the only teams in College Basketball yet to lose a conference game. I’ll be playing against Iona, the top team in the MAAC, today. The Gaels have won their first 11 conference games by an average of 11.5 points. But they face a tricky spot here, visiting Niagara. Niagara is middle of the pack in the conference, but is coming off two straight wins. The Purple Eagles won at Monmouth, then returned home to defeat Manhattan. Their record over the L6 games is 3-3 straight up, but the three losses were all by six points or less. Now the first meeting with Iona didn’t go well. Niagara lost that one by 23 points, as a 10-point underdog. But that was in Iona’s gym. All three times that the Gaels lost this season, the game was played away from home. Furthermore, Iona has failed to cover in its last two games. Both were eight-point wins. Niagara is on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a home dog. Take the points. |
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02-06-22 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Providence might be the 15th ranked team in the country right now, but oddsmakers do not think very much of the Friars and neither do I. They are first in the Big East with a 9-1 conference record and have won six straight. But, according to most power ranking systems, Providence would be an underdog to at least five BE teams, on a neutral floor. Here, the Friars are favored, on the road, so I think it’s an opportune time to fade. Georgetown has been struggling, but did cover the first meeting with Providence, as 10-point underdogs, losing only 83-75. That was even with the Hoyas shooting much worse, 40% for the game compared to 52.9% for the Friars. Of Providence’s nine Big East wins this year, seven have been by eight points or less. Only one has been by more than 10. The Friars have played with fire all year and have one of the better records in the country in close games. They aren’t the kind of team you want to lay points with regularly. Georgetown’s leading scorer and rebounder, Aminu Mohammed, was 1 for 13 from the field in the last game and finished with a career-low four points. He will play better Sunday. I know it’s been a tough year for Patrick Ewing’s Hoyas. They’ve lost 10 in a row. But expect them to cover here. Take the points. |
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02-05-22 | Kentucky v. Alabama -1.5 | Top | 66-55 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Alabama continues its brutal schedule with a visit from Kentucky. This will be the third consecutive top five opponent for the Crimson Tide. Last Saturday, they hosted Baylor, who was ranked #4 at the time. On Tuesday, they lost to #1 Auburn. Including the win over Baylor last Saturday, the Tide have beaten three of last year’s Final Four. Earlier in the season, they defeated Houston and Gonzaga - in consecutive games. Yes, Bama is favored now. That tells you what kind of team this is. Kentucky is now #4, having won seven of eight including at Kansas last Saturday. But all four Wildcats’ losses have come outside of Lexington. They are just 3-3 in true road games. Alabama has lost only one game in Tuscaloosa and that was by four to Auburn. Looking at the last month’s ATS results, it’s been a disappointing run for the Tide. But they are my pick here. Watch out for their three-point shooting to improve in this game. |
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02-05-22 | Penn State +8.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Things have suddenly gone a bit sideways for Wisconsin, who is 0-4 ATS its last four and lost twice straight up. Both losses did come to ranked teams, Michigan State and Illinois, but they were also by double digits. That’s a troubling sign for the Badgers. The team from Madison had won seven in a row prior to losing to Michigan State on January 21st. But five of the wins were by six points or less. This isn’t a team that wins big very often. They have three double digits wins all season, all of them coming December 4th or earlier (two were in November). So I’ll gladly take the points with Penn State tonight. The Nittany Lions are off a double overtime win over Iowa, but that was on Monday, so they’ve had plenty of time to recover. Wisconsin’s game in Illinois, which they lost, was on Wednesday. It’s a quicker turnaround for the favorite and they could be looking ahead to getting revenge against Michigan State on Tuesday. Penn State is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They covered the number at Purdue and also upset Indiana. In 12 of their 13 games, Wisconsin has either lost or won by nine points or less. Take the points. |
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02-05-22 | NC-Greensboro +11.5 v. Furman | Top | 58-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
Furman has been rolling, but expect them to stumble a bit Saturday afternoon against UNC Greensboro. Now leading the Southern Conference, the Paladins have lost just one time since January 1st. That was by two points at Chattanooga, who is in second place. Furman is on an eight-game ATS win streak as well. During that win streak, six of their seven SU wins have come by 15 points or more. That’s really impressive, but probably not sustainable. Three days ago against The Citadel, they scored 102 points, including a season-high 63 in the first half. There’s only one way to go following a performance like that. When Furman faced UNC Greensboro earlier this year, it was a tight, low-scoring contest. The Paladins escaped with a 58-54 win. That was their lowest scoring game of the year, probably owed to the fact that Greensboro plays at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country. Playing slow should allow the underdog Spartans to keep this one close. After dropping five of their last seven, this is a team desperate for a win. Take the points. |
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02-04-22 | San Diego State +3.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
The Mountain West has six teams ranked in the KenPom top 52 and these are two of them. Colorado State, despite starting the year with 11 consecutive victories, is the lowest rated of the six. They have lost two in a row to fall to 16-3 on the year. Their first loss was an ugly one, 79-49 at San Diego State. That’s who they’ll face again tonight. The Aztecs are just 4-2 in conference play and 12-5 overall, but they have a top five defense in adjusted efficiency and are second highest among Mt West teams in the KenPom ratings. Not only did they wallop CSU in the first meeting, they’ve won seven of nine. I mentioned that SDSU has a top five defense. They are actually #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and give up just 56.8 points/game. They say that “defense travels” and so you should count on the Aztecs not allowing many points here. Again, they held Colorado State to just 49 points in the first meeting. In the last nine games, only Utah State has been able to score more than 60 against San Diego State. Meanwhile, Colorado State has just given up 88 points to UNLV and 84 points to Wyoming in its last two games. Given how easily San Diego State won the first meeting, I’ve got to take them as a slight dog in the rematch. They are the better team and have swept the season series from CSU 12 of the past 22 seasons. They’ve even won 11 of the last 15 here at Moby Arena. Take the points. |
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02-04-22 | Rockets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 106-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
After losing a couple of close ones to top teams (Phoenix, Golden State), the Spurs never had a chance last night, losing to the Heat by the score of 112-95. Because of inclement weather, the start time for the game was moved up 90 minutes. Missing five players, including two starters, San Antonio was held to a season-worst 38 percent from the field. One of the missing players was leading scorer Dejounte Murray. He’s listed as questionable for tonight. The team could get a boost from the season debut of Zach Collins. Regardless, I think Gregg Popovich will have enough pieces to guide his team to victory over the last place Rockets. This is a critical game for San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” is set to begin next week. They are 15 games below .500 entering Friday. A win here would give them some much needed momentum going into the upcoming eight-game trip, which goes through the All-Star Break and into March. When these teams met last month, the Spurs scored 82 points in the paint en route to a 134-104 victory. Houston picked up a rare win on Wednesday, ending an 11-game home losing streak by upsetting Cleveland 115-104. It was just their fifth win since 12/19. Only once during that time have they won two straight games. So the decision to lay the short number in this one seems prudent. |
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02-04-22 | Dartmouth v. Yale -7.5 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Yale had a bit of a rocky road in non-conference play, finishing up just 6-8 straight up and 4-9 against the spread (one game had no line). But since Ivy League play has commenced, it’s been a return to form with a 4-1 mark SU and 3-2 ATS. Tonight, the Bulldogs are at home and facing Dartmouth, who is one of the weaker Ivy League teams. The Big Green are just 5-12 this year, straight up, and have a losing record in conference play. They did win their last game, however, beating Columbia 76-63 as 5.5 point road favorites. That Dartmouth was even favored on the road should tell you how bad Columbia must be. My records only go back to 2016, but Yale has beaten Dartmouth at least 10 straight times, covering the spread in each of the last seven. They’ve been favored every time. So it’s been a one-sided rivalry. Yale just got a big win last Saturday, beating Princeton by six as three-point underdogs. The Bulldogs are now just a half game out of first place. They can’t afford to slip up here. Thus expect a focused effort. The Bulldogs are averaging 81.5 points/game at home this year while Dartmouth averages only 66.1 points/game on the road. Before beating Columbia, the Big Green had dropped seven straight on the road. Lay the points here. |
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02-03-22 | USC -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 58-53 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
Less than one month ago, USC was one of the last few remaining unbeaten teams in College Basketball. Fast forward to the present and the Trojans are just 5-3 the last eight games. But they did beat Cal 79-72 last Saturday, ensuring they’d remain in the Top 25. Southern Cal comes into tonight’s game ranked #19 in the country. Stanford has handed the Trojans two of its three losses. Against everyone else, USC is 18-1 this year. They beat Arizona State by 22, 78-56, just over a week ago. Even with this game being in Tempe, I don’t think there’s much reason to expect things will go any different. The Trojans played a “clean” game against Cal, committing only four turnovers. But it was one of their weaker defensive efforts, just the second time all season that an opponent shot 50% or better. Expect things to be ratcheted up at that end tonight. Arizona State is one of the Pac 12’s weakest teams. They’ve lost three in a row and six of their last seven. The Sun Devils only win since December 14th was by two points over last place Utah. USC has covered five straight times against ASU and tonight should be no different. I’ve got no problem laying single digits on the road with the vastly superior team. The Sun Devils have failed to even score 60 in four of their last six games. |
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02-03-22 | Lakers +3 v. Clippers | Top | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The Lakers look to make it back to back wins here as they face the Clippers Thursday night on TNT. This isn’t your “usual” second night of a back to back for the Purple & Gold. While listed as “the road team,” this is the same building they won in last night, defeating Portland 99-94. The Lakers did have to rally to get the win last night. They outscored Portland 27-19 in the fourth quarter. They also got 30 points from Anthony Davis, 19 of those coming in the final stanza. Both LA teams are under .500 and just trying to catch up to the top six in the West. I think it’s unlikely either will do so, and thus they’ll be relegated to the play-in round come April. The Lakers are playing without LeBron James right now, but the Clippers don’t have either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers are coming off a 4-4 road trip that took them all over the country. They were a bit lucky to finish the trip at .500 as there were multiple huge comebacks. They trailed the Sixers by 24, Wizards by 35 and Magic by 14. Those were all games that they somehow WON. Not tonight though. Even with two days rest, I expect the Clippers to struggle coming off the long road trip. They are actually 0-5 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS after a game where they failed to score 100 points. |
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02-03-22 | Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts -6.5 | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
You may not be all that familiar with the Summit League, but there’s one team (South Dakota State) well out in front with a perfect 11-0 conference record. Oral Roberts (9-2) is second and if they want to keep pace, they’ll need to take care of Western Illinois (4-6) tonight. I think they will. Oral Roberts has won eight of its past nine games. The lone loss was their home game and they fell by just a single point, 72-71 to North Dakota State. The Eagles have since gone out on the road and defeated both Omaha and Denver, racking up a lot of points in the process. They scored 100 and 89 in those two wins. ORU averages 87.7 points per game at home, so you should again expect lots of points from them tonight. Western Illinois, who just gave up 83 in their last game, a loss to UMKC, allows 78.1 points per game on the road. Western Illinois has dropped 7 of its last 10 overall. They let UMKC shoot 56% on Monday and dropped to 3-7 ATS in conference play. The Leathernecks have lost the last five meetings with Oral Roberts. Led by Max Abmas, ORU is one of the five highest scoring teams in all of College Basketball. They’ll score enough to cover the spread tonight. |
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02-02-22 | Magic v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 119-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Indiana is having a really disappointing season thus far, but should certainly be able to take advantage of Orlando playing the second night of a back to back. The Magic have the worst record in the NBA, 11-41, and lost 126-115 in Chicago last night. Despite a hot start where they shot over 60% in the first quarter, Orlando just couldn’t keep pace in the Windy City. They rallied to tie the game up in the last four minutes, only to run out of gas. I think it’s going to be tough for them to dust themselves off after another loss. The Magic have won just one time in ten tries when playing without rest this season. They are also 8-15 ATS off a double digit loss. The Pacers beat the Clippers Monday, 122-116. They are now 4-4 over their last eight games, including a win over Golden State, as they try to stay in playoff contention. Don’t judge the Pacers by their 19-33 record as they have played better than you’d think. What has really hurt them is a league-high 10 losses by three points or fewer. Even though they’re short-handed right now, the Pacers know this is a game they must win. Lay the points as Orlando is rarely a good bet to keep a game close, let alone win. |
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02-02-22 | Maryland-Baltimore County +2.5 v. Albany | Top | 59-53 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
A rare move to the America East Conference for this play where I will take UMBC, the only team to ever make the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32 as a 16-seed, to cover the spread. Right now though, the Retrievers aren’t really thinking about the NCAA Tournament. They find themselves at just 4-4 in conference play and 9-10 overall. Their opponent on Wednesday is Albany, who has a similar record (5-4 in conference play, 9-12 overall). Both teams have played better lately. UMBC has won three in a row. Albany, though off a loss to conference leader Vermont, is 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games. Albany hasn’t been all that strong at home this year (3-4 SU) and are not a great offensive team, averaging just 62.0 PPG. After being blitzed by Vermont (allowed 56.9% shooting), the Great Danes probably aren’t in a great position to be favored tonight. They’ve been favorites in only four games prior to this one. But most important of all is that this is a revenge game for UMBC, who lost to Albany 66-54 as a 4.5-point home favorite, two weeks ago. That was a bad shooting night for the Retrievers, who made only 17 field goals the entire game. In the three games since, they have scored 88, 73 and 70 points. Expect a much better offensive showing tonight and take the points. |
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02-02-22 | Drake -3.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 85-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Drake, who is coming off a big upset of Loyola Chicago, now turns its attention to a much lesser Missouri Valley foe - Indiana State. The Bulldogs win on Saturday squared them up with Loyola for the MVC lead. Indiana State is just 2-6 in conference play and that’s why they are a home dog here. Sunday saw ISU lose by 15 at Bradley. It was the Sycamores’ fifth loss in six games and saw season-lows in field goal percentage (34.0) and three-pointers made (five). They were dominated on the inside, gave up too many second chance points and turned the ball over 15 times. All in all, a poor effort for Larry Bird’s alma mater. Drake has not been especially good at covering the spread this season (5-14 ATS), but they are winning games. They’ve won 13 of 16. Now three of the wins have been in overtime and three wins last month were by a single point. But taking down Loyola Chicago, who was a Top 25 team not too long ago, was rather impressive. The Bulldogs didn’t even shoot all that well in the 77-68 upset. But they scored 45 points in the second half. Five of the last six games, they’ve topped 70. Indiana State, meanwhile, has scored 56 or less in three of its last five games. This should be an easy win for the favorite. |
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02-01-22 | Texas +5.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Texas vs. Texas Tech is a Top 25 matchup on Tuesday’s docket. Both are 16-5. Texas Tech is ranked higher and favored, due to being at home. But the underdog is the play here. No doubt Texas Tech has been covering games lately. They are 8-1 against the spread the last nine games. They’ve lost twice straight up, but one of those was a multi-OT game at Kansas. The Red Raiders had already beaten Kansas once this year and they also hold a win over Baylor. But Texas leads the country in scoring defense at 54.5 points per game allowed. They are a tough team to beat, let alone beat by any kind of substantial margin. In what promises to be another low-scoring affair in the Big 12, taking the points just seems like a sound decision. Longhorns coach Chris Beard left Texas Tech after last season. He knows the opponent well. Texas Tech won’t shoot 61% again like they did vs. Mississippi State over the weekend. Texas’ defense keeps this one close and I can see an upset happening. |
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02-01-22 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Minnesota has an excellent shot at ending Denver’s five-game win streak, regardless if Nikola Jokic plays or not. The Nuggets will be playing their fifth straight game on the road this evening. Two days ago, they shot over 60% from the field and laid waste to Milwaukee, winning by 36. Jokic dominated down low against a Bucks team that really had no post presence. If Jokic (questionable) even plays tonight, he will be going up against Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves are likewise coming off an impressive win. They beat Utah by 20 on Sunday. It was the fourth time in the last six games that the T’wolves topped 120 points. There is a huge difference in what Minnesota allows at home and on the road. They allow almost 11 points per game less here in the Twin Cities. The first two meetings of the year have seen Denver win here and Minnesota win in the Mile High City. Now it’s time for the home team to win one. Lay the points. |
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02-01-22 | Boston College v. Virginia -8.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Virginia team that doesn’t score all that much. But the Hoos have proven to be resilient off a loss and play great defense. Boston College is also not good on the road. Virginia is one of 13 teams in the country that is allowing fewer than 60 points per game. Playing at home tonight, you should bank on them allowing less than 60 points. Saturday saw the Cavaliers lose 69-65 at Notre Dame. It was a bad shooting night from three with them making just 3 of 14 from behind the arc. Fortunately, Virginia has a 4-0 ATS record so far off a conference loss. They shoot a respectable 34.4% from three at home. Boston College, who is coming off a rare win, is just 1-8 away from home this year. That one win was by two over Clemson. The Eagles are averaging less than 60 points/game on the road. Coming off an ACC win, BC is 0-3 ATS. So lay the points in this one. |
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01-31-22 | Pacific v. Santa Clara -12 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Everybody looks up to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but there’s actually a pretty strong top four in the league this season with BYU, St. Mary’s and San Francisco all looking like they’re NCAA Tournament worthy. But we’re not talking about any of those teams today. We’ve got a matchup of teams in the bottom half of the WCC, Pacific and Santa Clara. I think Santa Clara has a substantial edge on Monday. The Broncos are coming off a series of close games, an overtime win against San Diego, a win at the buzzer over BYU and an overtime loss to San Francisco. They are just 3-3 SU in conference play, but 9-3 at home and far more respectable than tonight’s opponent. Pacific is 1-4 SU in conference play and 0-7 on the road. The Tigers just recorded their first WCC win of the campaign on Saturday, shocking BYU 76-73 as a 12-point underdog. Before that, they were on a seven-game losing streak and almost every loss was by double digits. Not only have the Tigers yet to win a true road game this year, they are also 0-7 ATS in those games. Their overall ATS mark this year is 3-14, very poor and among the worst in the country. With Santa Clara averaging just over 80 points per game at home, I just don’t see how Pacific is going to be able to stay within the number here. Lay the points. |