Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas has been a lot better on the road than at home this year and it had lost four of six previous to last night’s big win in The Big Apple. Can anyone say letdown spot? Detroit on the other hand has lost back-to-back games, including to these very Mavs just last week. From a situational stand point, this one is definitely being handed to the home side on a “silver platter” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after three consecutive non-conference games and just 1-2 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, while Detroit is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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01-30-19 | UCLA -4.5 v. Washington State | Top | 87-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA rolled to a 90-69 win over Arizona at home in its latest action and I look for it to carry that momentum over here as well. Washington State on the other hand enters off a poor 78-58 loss on the road to Oregon and I think it’ll have a hard time containing the up-tempo Bruins. UCLA won’t be taking anything for granted here either as the win over the Wildcats would in fact snap a three-game slide. The Bruins aerate 78.3 PPG, while allowing 75.3. WSU has lost three straight and nine of its last ten. The Cougars average 77.4 PPG and they allow 77.9. The pick: Note that UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a SU/ATS win at home in which it scored 90 or more points in, while WSU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning SU records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* play |
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01-29-19 | Pelicans +10 v. Rockets | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans have to adjust to the idea that Anthony Davis will soon be leaving the team. He won’t be suiting up here. It’s going to be all hands on deck though as New Orleans tries to gain an identity moving forward. In this contest anyways, I think the Pelicans rally and at the very least, keep this one competitive against a Rockets team which I predict will get caught looking past its lowly opponent. The Pelicans’ have lost three straight, but Jrue Holiday looked decent after posting 29 points, seven boards and three assists in the losing effort. He’ll be leaned upon heavily moving forward. The Rockets continue to win, but it was anything but easy in their latest 103-98 victory over the lowly Magic at home. I think James Harden and company are starting to run out of gas and there’s no question in my mind that this one actually sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. The-pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 8-4 ATS this year trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 3-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. No upset, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* COACH’S CLINIC PELICANS |
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01-29-19 | Toledo v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly it’s not out of the question. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Both teams come in off wins. Toledo averages 80.6 PPG and it allows 69.2. Miami Ohio averages 73.4 PPG and it allows 70.2. The pick: From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Toledo is a poor 2-4 ATS on the road already this year, while Miami Ohio is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a home dog or pick. Grab the points. 10* MAC-ATTACK Miami Ohio. |
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01-28-19 | Nets +10 v. Celtics | Top | 104-112 | Win | 107 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Am I calling for an outright upset? I’m not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive war than what this spread would suggest. Boston comes in off a loss to the red hot Warriors and now face one of the league’s other white hot teams in the Nets, who come to town on a six-game win streak, including a victory over the Knicks on Friday. The Celtics didn’t manage a win over the Warriors and I think a letdown here is imminent after that “close call.” From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the visitors in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Brooklyn is already 9-5 ATS this year off a home win and 5-1 ATS off a win vs. a division rival, while Boston is just 18-25 ATS in its last 43 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the end. 10* play |
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01-26-19 | Colorado v. Stanford -2 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: After its 68-59 road win over Cal on Thursday, I think Colorado will stumble in this difficult road venue. The Cardinal are looking to rebound as well after their 70-66 home loss to Utah on Thursday. To say this is a “revenge” game as well for Stanford would be a bit of an understatement, as Colorado has won nine straight in the series. But the Buffs had dropped two in a row and four of five before their latest victory and I believe an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent. The Buffs average 76.2 PPG and they allow 69. The Cardinal won’t be taking anything for granted here as they’ve lost five of their last seven. Overall Stanford averages 72.5 PPG and it allows 73.4. The pick: But note that Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by six points or less. Colorado on the other hand is just 8-23 ATS in its last 31 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the short points on the hungry and revenge minded home side. 8* play |
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01-26-19 | LSU v. Missouri +5 | 86-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: LSU has won 15 of 18, but I think it’ll have its hands full today vs. a Missouri team which enters off a loss to Arkansas. LSU has won eight straight and I think it comes in complacent. Overall LSU averages 83.1 PPG and it allows 71.9. Tremont Waters leads LSU with 14.2 points and 6.1 assists per night. Missouri averages 67.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other and by allowing just 65.6. Keep your eyes on the home side’s Jordan Geist, who leads the way with 13.3 points and 4.2 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will, but LSU is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after a win by ten points or more, while Missouri is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home underdog of six points or less or pick. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle. 8* play |
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01-26-19 | Iowa State v. Ole Miss | Top | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State comes in hungry after its 80-76 setback at Kansas. Mississippi comes in off a loss as well, getting smoked 74-53 by Alabama. Previous to their latest loss though the Cyclones had won two in a row. Iowa State averages 78.5 PPG and it allows just 65.1. The Runnin Rebels are no slouches either, averaging 77.9 PPG and allowing 68.4. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game, while Mississippi is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of thre points or less or pick. The Cyclones have been playing more consistently of late and I believe that translates into a “W” here. 10* play |
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01-25-19 | Heat v. Cavs +8.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: Miami enters off a 111-99 home loss to the Clippers on Wednesday, while Cleveland returns home off a 123-103 road loss in Boston on Wednesday. Both teams are struggling this season, but the Cavaliers play with the added incentive of “double revenge,” having dropped both previous meetings with the Heat, including a 117-92 setback in Miami in the most recent at the start of the year. Clearly the Heat are the better team, but the Cavs won’t be rolling over here as they look to break their own string of futility (lost 17 of 18.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Cleveland is just 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. I’m grabbing the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Knicks +10 v. Nets | 99-109 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I think the home side comes in a tiny bit complacent here and I look for the under-manned, but hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive down the stretch. The Knicks were competitive in a 114-110 loss at home to Houston on Wednesday, a game which saw James Harden drop 61 points on them. The Nets come in off a satisfying 114-110 home win over Orlando on Wednesday. Brooklyn has taken two of three between the clubs this year, so the revenge factor comes into play here as well. The pick: Note that the Knicks are 9-4 ATS this year after a non-conference game, while Brooklyn is still just 14-15 ATS in its last 29 as a home favorite. I think the conditions are correct for a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -4 | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Wizards have been playing a lot better of late, even without star John Wall, but they come into his one off a home loss to Golden State just last night. I have a hard time seeing the Wizards “getting up” for this one. The Magic will look to take advantage. These teams have already split two games this year, with each winning on its own floor. The Magic won 117-108 in their home victory and I believe we’ll see a similar final score discrepancy here as well. From a situational stand point I do indeed feel this one sets up fantastically for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Orlando is a solid 4-1-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Washington is just 17-36 ATS in its last 53 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Brown +7 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, an outright upset wouldn’t be a complete shock. I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, but I think this one will come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. After seven straight wins, complacency sets in for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE revenge game for the Bears as well! Brown had won six in a row before a loss to Yale last weekend. Suffice it to say, revenge is a dish best served cold. The pick: Yale won that game 70-67 and I expect another very competitive battle here as well. Additionally note that Brown is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Yale is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game. Grab the points. 10* Brown |
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01-24-19 | Belmont v. Murray State -4.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Belmont is 13-4 after beating Tennessee State 92-74 this past weekend. Overall Belmont is averaging 86.3 PPG, while holding the opposition to 66. Dylan Windler had 25 points, six boards and four assists in the most recent victory. Murray State has won seven straight, most recently pulling away for an 82-72 victory over SIU Edwardsville. The Racers are averaging 84 PPG and they’re allowing just 66. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bruins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while the Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning SU records and 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 80 points or more in a SU victory in their last contest. Look for the home side to take advantage. Lay the points. 10* play |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans +12 v. Thunder | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog tonight. The Pelicans come in “under the radar” in my opinion. The Thunder enter off a 123-114 home win over the Blazers, but with two nights off before a game at home vs. the Bucks on Sunday night, I expect the home side to get caught looking past its opponent tonight. And who could fault the Thunder in doing so? They’re playing at home and facing a team playing without its superstar (Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is out) and coming off a game just last night. The pick: New Orleans though can put points on the board with the best of them. Note that the Pelicans average 117.1 PPG, while the Thunder average 114. Take it for what you will as well but the Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS this year as a home fav in the 6.5 to 12 points range. A great “situational” play on the Pelicans. 10* play |
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01-23-19 | Hornets v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of hungry non-conference teams collide on Wednesday night and I don’t think that the “home court advantage” can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Memphis comes in as the “hungrier” team here as it looks to snap a six-game losing streak. The Hornets look poised for a letdown though in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Charlotte averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Grizzlies averages only 100.6 PPG, while allowing 103.9. The pick: Take it for what you will though but memphis 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Charlotte is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest. I like Memphis to finally get off the schneid in this favorable home matchup. 10* play |
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01-22-19 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -1 | Top | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Ole Miss comes in off an 84-67 win over Arkansas in its latest action, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. Overall the Runnin Rebels average 79.4 PPG. The Tide come in as the “hungrier” team after their 71-68 loss to Tennessee. Alabama enters averaging 76 PPG. A date vs. the Rebels is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track though as Mississippi has covered in just five of its last 17 trips to Tuscaloosa. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a tight SU loss of 3 points or less. I’m banking on home court playing a big part in the outcome of this one. Play on Alabama. 10* play |
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01-21-19 | Iowa State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jayhawks have to have a “short memory” here as they look to bounce back from a tough 65-64 defeat to Virginia over the weekend. The setback dropped Kansas into a four-way tie for the Big 12 lead. Iowa State is clearly no push over, but note that it’s won just one of its last 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse. After a 72-59 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, I think the Cyclones stumble in this difficult road venue. Kansas plays with revenge here as well after falling 77-60 in Iowa State back on January 5th. Note that the Cyclones have not swept the season series between the schools since 2001. The pick: Additionally note that Iowa State is 35-16-3 ATS in its last 54 following a SU loss, while Iowa State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog. The situation and the trends/numbers both point to a home side blowout. Lay the points. 10* play |
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01-21-19 | Rockets +5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-121 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? Clearly it’s not out of the question. I’m expecting a battle though obviously and am going to grab the points in the end. The Rockets come in off a 138-134 OT win over LA on Saturday, while Philly lost 117-115 to OKC in its most recent action. Houston is 6-4 overall in its last ten and it averages 112.6 PPG and it allows 110.5. But after their three-game win streak was snapped in dramatic fashion last time out, I think the 76ers are ripe for another letdown here. Overall Philadelphia averages 115.4 PPG and it allows 112.2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the 76ers are a poor 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the Southwest division, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Grab the points and expect a war. 10* play |
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01-19-19 | San Diego v. St. Mary's -10 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. After their 76-55 road win over Portland to move back to .500 in league play (2-2), I believe the Toreros will suffer a predictable letdown here. The Gaels improved to 3-1 in conference action after an impressive home win over Santa Clara last time out. Overall San Diego averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 67.7. Saint Mary’s is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 65.6. The Gaels have quietly been playing a lot better with three straight wins and I believe they carry that momentum over here vs. this now complacent San Diego side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Mary’s is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while SD is 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 10* St Marys |
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01-19-19 | Mavs v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 99-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. I think home court will prove to be the difference maker for the hungry Pacers though. Dallas lost 105-101 at home to the Spurs on Wednesday most recently, while Indiana lost 120-96 at home to Philadelphia on Thursday. While they haven’t played yet this year, the Mavs have won three straight in the series, including a 109-103 victory in the latest back on Feb. 26th, 2018. The Mavs though have dropped five of their last seven and overall they’re just 11-11 ATS on the road. Dallas averages 109.8 PPG and it allows 109.7. Indiana is 11-10 ATS at home. Overall the Pacers average 108.7 PPG though, while allowing just 103.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Indiana is a solid 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. 10* PACERS |
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01-19-19 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL +7.5 | 85-76 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Tar Heels look poised for a letdown here after their 75-69 hoe win over Notre Dame in my opinion as they hit the road to face a Hurricanes side which posted a 76-65 home win over Wake in its latest action. The Tar Heels were blown out by Louisville in their pervious contest, but Luke Maye posted 14 points and ten boards to help UNC back into the winners circle. Note thought that Two of the Tar Heels four losses have come against ranked opponents. UNC comes in averaging 87.4 PPG, while allowing 73.2. Miami Florida was led by Chris Lykes in its latest win with 25 points. The Hurricanes are 7-2 at home. Overall they average 76.5 PPG, while allowing 70.1. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UNC is still just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 on the road and just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 after failing to cover the spread in two or more straight games, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last four following a conference contest. Grab the points, expecting “nail-biter.” 8* Miami |
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01-16-19 | Long Beach State v. Cal-Irvine -10.5 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 7-10 LBSU is severely overmatched here. The UC Irvine Anteaters enter at 14-4 overall. LBSU averages 75 PPG and it’s allowing 76. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Deishaun Booker has been a bright spot by averaging 15 PPG though. UC Irvine averages 70 PPG, but it allows just 64. The Anteaters are deep and talented are hitting 44 percent from the floor as a team thus far. The pick: Additionally note that LBSU is a poor 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after playing its previous game as the favorite, while UC Irvine is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite or pick. Lay the points. *10 UCI |
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01-14-19 | Blazers +2 v. Kings | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blazers come in off a 116-113 loss in Denver last night. I think the Blazers though regroup quickly and get back to their winning ways in this favorable matchup on Monday night. Note that despite the loss to the red hot Nuggets, Portland still won the turnover and rebounding battle, while shooting a very respectable 45.5 percent from the floor overall. The Kings come in off a satisfying win over the Hornets in their last outing, but I think they’ll struggle in this conference match-up. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have been simply terrible in this spot for bettors, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. the Western Conference. Look for Portland’s depth to prove to be too much for the Kings to keep up to down the stretch. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder -4 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: San Antonio took the first game of this home and home set 154-147 in double OT on Thursday. Clearly its payback time for the Thunder on their own floor. LeMarcus Aldridge exploded for a career-high 56 points, nine boards, four assists and four blocks to lead San Antonio’s victory, but clearly I’m not expecting a repeat performance here. The Spurs are just 9-11 on the road this year. Russell Westbrook had 24 points, 13 boards and 24 assists in the setback on Thursday for the Thunder. OKC is 10-9 ATS at home this year, but the immediate revenge factor swings the scales in favor of the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are just 2-4 ATS in their last six after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, while OKC is already 5-1 ATS this year in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Lay the points. 10* DEMOLITION |
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01-12-19 | Boston College v. Notre Dame -5.5 | 66-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think that home floor will prove to be the difference in this matchup. The BC Eagles are 9-5 and the ND Fighting Irish are 10-5. BC comes in off an 83-56 loss to Virginia on Wednesday, while the Irish fell 72-62 to Syracuse in their latest action. ND beat BC twice last year and look for the Irish to take the first one this season as well. BC actually comes in off three straight losses. The Eagles are averaging 75 PPG and they’re allowing 72.1. Notre Dame won’t be taking anything for granted here though after two straight conference losses. Overall the irish average 75.6 PPG and they allow 68.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in its last five in this series, while BC is 0-5 ATS in its last five following a SU loss of more than 20 points and just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a double-digit home loss. I’m laying the points and expecting a rout. 8* WAKE AND MAKE |
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01-11-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -8 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James got injured the Lakers would go on to predictably lost three straight. LA has looked better of late after winning two in a row, but I think that an immediate return to mediocrity is in the cards. Kyle Kuzma had a career-high 41 points the Lakers latest home win over Detroit. LA is averaging 112.2 PPG, while allowing 110.8. I think Kuzma though will struggle to duplicate his best performance ever as a pro, especially in this difficult road venue vs. the Jazz, who have “upped” their game on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing just 100.7 PPG over their last four. Utah comes in on top form having won three of its last four and I look for it take advantage of this favorable matchup. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing road records, while LA is just 2-6-1 ATS In its last nine following a SU win and only 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following an ATS victory. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* DEMOLITION |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Wright State somehow managed to take both games vs. Northern Kentucky last year, but I think the Norse will bounce back this season and take the first matchup this time around. Wright State comes in off an 89-73 win over Oakland, while NKU destroyed Detroit 95-73 last time out. The Norse are balanced on both sides of the ball and are the much “deeper” team this season, note that six players would score in double figures in the win over the Titans. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wright State is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while NKU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after a victory in which it scored 95 points or more in. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* DEMOLITION |
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01-10-19 | Youngstown State +9.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Youngstown State will be gunning for an upset here after its 76-51 road win over Milwaukee in its latest contest. UIC enters off a tough 66-64 loss at home to IUPUI in its latest action. The Penguins play with revenge here as they’ve lost four straight in the series, including a 100-75 road loss last February 8th. Youngstown State averages 76.6 PPG and it allows 80.3. UIC averages only 75.6 PPG, while allowing 77.1. The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Youngstown State is already 3-1 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after playing two consecutive road games as the underdog, while UIC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I believe that these teams are much more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Combine the situational and motivational factors working in favor of Youngstown State and an outright win isn’t out of the question here. That said, I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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01-08-19 | St. John's v. Villanova -6 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Villanova has won three straight and I think it carries that momentum over here into another solid victory at home against the surprising Red Storm, who have started the year 14-1, including conference wins over Marquette and Georgetown. The Red Storm have been playing over their heads, including the thrilling 97-94 OT win over Georgetown. Can anyone say “letdown” spot though? The defending champs will be out to send a message here in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Villanova is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 at home and 35-16 ATS in its last 51 vs. teams with winning records, while St. John’s is still just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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01-07-19 | Spurs -3 v. Pistons | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: These teams have been moving in opposite directions of late overall and I think that trend carries over here. SA comes in having won four straight and eight of its last ten. Overall the Spurs are averaging 111.7 PPG and they’re allowing 108.6. The Pistons are averaging 107.2 PPG and they’re allowing 109.4. As mentioned off the top, Detroit has been scuffling of late and it now sits three games under .500. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Pistons are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. the East. Lay the points. 8* play |
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01-05-19 | Oregon State v. Oregon -5.5 | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is the conference opener for both teams and I absolutely believe that home court will prove to be the difference maker in the end. Oregon has won four of the last five in the series and it’s been even better when on its home floor with seven straight victories over the Beavers. Oregon State is ripe for the picking as it comes in with zero momentum having lost three of their last four. Oregon tate averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 64.9. Oregon has won four straight and it averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 62.5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 at home, while Oregon State is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win and only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 played on the road following three or more straight games at home. Lay the points. 8* play |
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01-05-19 | Hornets +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets are only 7-8 ATS on the road this year, but they’re 9-6 SU. Charlotte enters off an embarrassing 122-84 home loss to the Mavericks in its latest action and it’ll be out to atone for that pathetic effort. And a date vs. the Nuggets is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track as the Hornets have won four of the last five in this series, including a 113-107 home victory in the first matchup this year back on December 7th. The Hornets average 112.9 PPG and they allow 111.4. Denver averages 110.3 PPG and it allows 105.1. The pick: But this is a matchup which Charlotte has excelled in and after its recent poor effort, I expect it to give a full four-quarter effort tonight. Additionally note that the Hornets are already 12-4 ATS this year after having lost two of their last three games. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-05-19 | Florida State +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: FSU is 12-1 and Virginia is 12-0. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but I definitely think that the Seminoles can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Seminoles enter off an 87-76 win over Winthrop, while Virginia smashed Marshall 100-64 at home in its most recent action. Overall FSU averages 82.3 PPG, while allowing 68.4. The Cavaliers average 74.7 PPG and they allow 51.4. The pick: The numbers though support our play on the visitors today, as note that FSU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games with a home win percentage of greater than .600, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-04-19 | Jazz v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 117-91 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz are the “better” team, but the Cavs are the “hungrier” team tonight. Utah enters off a 122-116 road loss in Toronto on Tuesday, while Cleveland comes in off a blowout loss at home to the Heat. Utah’s achilles heel forever has been its play on the road and that’s been no different this season either, going just 9-12-1 ATS away from friendly confines thus far. Overall the Jazz average 107.7 PPG and they allow 106.1. The Cavs average 102 PPG and they allow 111.4. Cleveland has lost seven straight though and clearly it’ll be risking life and limb to try and reverse that trend. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is already just 3-5 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games, while Cleveland is 8-5 ATS this season following a SU home loss. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-03-19 | St. Mary's +2.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 72-76 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dons come in at 12-2 and St. Mary’s is 9-6. The Gaels started slowly by losing their first four, but they’ve bounced back to go 9-6 to this point and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Tanner Krebs led the way in St. Mary’s most recent win with 20 points off six three-pointers. The Gaels come in averaging 113.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 99.7 points per 100 possessions. San Fran may be 12-2, but it comes in off a 73-71 road loss to UC Santa Barbara. San Fran is scoring 107.8 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 94.2 per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win of 20 points or more, while San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Clearly the outright is possible, but I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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01-01-19 | CS-Fullerton v. Washington -12.5 | 76-84 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cal State is 4-9 and Washington is 8-4. The Huskies haven’t played since beating Sacramento State on December 21st and with one last “tune-up” before conference play, I’m expecting the home side to make the most of this favorable matchup. The Titans beat Portland 79-64 on Saturday, but previous to that Cal State had lost four in a row. The Titans have struggled against better defensive clubs, which clearly poses a problem facing the stingy Huskies today. The pick: Cal State has struggled with consistency to this point as well, going 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road and 0-4 ATS following a SU victory. Washington on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points. |
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12-31-18 | Hawks +12 v. Pacers | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta has been playing well of late, most recently it defeated the Hawks 111-108 on Saturday. Indiana enters off a very satisfying 125-88 home win over the Pistons and I think it’ll get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. This is a big time revenge game as well, as Indiana has taken seven straight in the series, including both this year and last week’s 129-121 Boxing Day victory. But Atlanta is now playing its best ball of the year, having won five of its last six. Indiana has won four straight, but note that it’s still a terrible 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win by ten points or more vs. a division rival. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 7-5 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Grab all those points! 10* play |
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12-31-18 | Montana State v. Northern Arizona -1 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is doing very well this year. Montana state is 4-7, while Northern Arizona is just 2-9. But after beating Southern Utah 92-62 this past Saturday, I think Montana State will take a step back here. Overall Montana State averages 72.7 PPG, while allowing 81.9. Northern Arizona averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 81.1. Most recently the Lumberjacks fell 86-73 to Montana last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Montana State is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 after covering the spread in its previous game, while Northern Arizona is still 13-9 ATS in its last 22 at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after five or more consecutive losses. I think the “hungrier” teams finds a way to get the job done here. Play on Northern Arizona. 10* play |
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12-30-18 | Lipscomb v. Clemson -6.5 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Lipscomb comes in off a 91-66 win over Vermont last Saturday to improve to 9-3, but I think the Bison will struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue vs. the Power 5 opponent. Clemson comes in at 9-3 as well and having won three straight, most recently a 78-68 victory over South Carolina. Despite having failed to cover in five of their last six, I think the Tigers will take full advantage of this favorable match-up. Marcquise Reed is back in the line-up after missing three games and he had 20 points in the win over the Gamecocks. I think he’s a difference maker and I believe he’ll be a match-up issue for the Bison. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference home games on the heels of a three games or more unbeaten streak. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-29-18 | Portland +8.5 v. CS-Fullerton | 64-79 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The set-up: I don’t think the Pilots will score the outright upset here, but I do think they can keep this one competitive late. Fullerton won this game on the raod 76-66 last year. But Portland comes in with momentum after a 54-39 home win over Florida A&M, while Cal State comes in off a deflating 86-62 road loss to Nebraska. Overall the Pilots average 72.1 PPG and they allow 73.9, while the Titans average 73.4 PPG and allow 72.8. I think Cal State is vastly over-rated here. The pick: Portland has performed well in this spot for bettors, going 16-8 ATS in its last 24 vs. teams with losing records and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 60 points or less in two straight games, while Cal State has struggled, going just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 6.5 to nine points range. Grab the points. 8* play |
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12-29-18 | Rockets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets were upset at home last night by the Mavs and I think they’ll be ripe for the picking here as well. The Rockets comes in off three straight victories, including over the Celtics most recently. Houston plays with revenge here as well after the Pelicans took the first game in the season series 131-112 in mid October. The pick: New Orleans is also just 1-5 already in the second game of the back-to-back scenario this season. Note that the Pelicans are allowing a whopping 124.2 points per game in the second game of the back to back this year. This one is going to be a blowout. Play on Houston. 10* play |
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12-29-18 | Kentucky v. Louisville +1.5 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: After losing to Duke, Kentucky has won nine of its last ten. The Wildcats enter off a win over UNC last weekend, but I think they’ll finally have a letdown here. Louisville looks to defend home court and it comes in with plenty of momentum itself with three straight victories. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well as the Wildcats have won five of the past six in the series. These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but after the extended stretch of great play, including the win over the Tar Heels last weekend, I definitely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot finally for Kentucky. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Kentucky is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Louisville is already 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year. I’m banking on home floor being the difference. Play on Louisville. 10* play |
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12-28-18 | Hawks +9.5 v. Wolves | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: No outright victory, but I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. I think the Wolves, who have won two straight, get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight. After winning three straight, the Hawks are looking to bounce back after a loss in Indiana in their latest outing. Kent Bazemore was a standout in the setback with 32 points. The Wolves are playing great under the guidance of Derrick Rose, but note that they’ve been consistently inconsistent in this spot by going just 1-4 ATS this year after a blowout win of 15 points or more. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 8-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on Atlanta. 8* play |
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12-28-18 | Austin Peay +12.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Austin Peay comes in “under the radar” here. The Governors have won six straight and they’re averaging 78.1 PPG, while allowing 75.4. Austin Peay is lead by Terry Taylor who is averaging 17.8 points and 8.3 boards per game. Arkansas has won six of eight, but it’s not too hard to imagine the home side looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Overall Arkansas is averaging 82.4 PPG and allowing 70.7. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Austin Peay is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while the Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. As stated off the top, I think the Governors come in “under the radar” and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do indeed feel that the stage is se for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-27-18 | 76ers +5 v. Jazz | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah has won three of four, while Philadelphia saw a two-game win steak end in a OT loss at Boston on X-Mas Day. Philadelphia looks to bounce back here in this difficult venue: “I look forward to watching us evolve,” 76ers’ head coach Brett Brown assessed last night. “We will learn from this. We leave disappointed, but I think there’s lots you’re going to point to and say it was a hell of a job, and we lost to a team that’s very tough…. The fact that the starting five for the large majority of the game was excellent. I though the spirit was great, the energy was great, but we need to continue to grow our bench, and to work with our starters to finish out the game.” Maintaining focus for the Jazz vs. the Eastern Conference opponent is a concern though in my opinion. The pick: Because take it for what you will, but the Jazz are still a poor 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a victory, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle. 10* play |
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12-26-18 | Hornets v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 132-134 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Simply put, I don’t think that home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Nets once again come in under the radar here after winning eight of their last nine. The Hornets look poised for another letdown here after their two-game win streak was broke in a 119-103 loss in Boston last time out. Overall the Hornets average 110.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 108.2 per 100 possessions. The Nets average 109.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 110.2 per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will thought, but Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Brooklyn is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 following a SU loss of ten or more points. Kemba Walker is doing a hell of a job to keep the Hornets relevant, but I think he’ll stumble in this now difficult road venue. Play on the Nets. 10* play |
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12-26-18 | Wizards +5 v. Pistons | 95-106 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Both teams have struggled this year (Washington is just 13-21 and Detroit only 15-16.) The Wizards come in desperate for a victory after dropping five of their last seven. The Pistons can empathize with their counterparts today as they’ve gone just 3-9 in December. Most recently Detroit fell 98-95 at home to the lowly Hawks. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Washington is already 3-1 ATS this year after failing to cover the spread in four straight games, while Detroit is just 3-7 ATS this season as a home favorite. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points. 8* play |
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12-25-18 | Hawaii v. Rhode Island -5 | Top | 68-60 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a consolation game in the Diamond Head Classic and I like the Rhode Island Rams to put the foot on the gas and run the home side Warriors off the floor once its all said and done. Hawaii enters off a 70-62 win over Colorado in the consolation bracket Sunday, while the Rams beat Charlotte 75-61 in their consolation game on Sunday. The Rams feature the more senior players and more talented line-up though and I think this depth will be the difference in the outcome of this one. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Hawaii is a disappointing 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home underdog or pick. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. 10* play |
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12-25-18 | Bucks -10 v. Knicks | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down on this one early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I think the high-powered Bucks are going to lay the hammer down from start to finish. The Bucks comes in off a 94-87 road loss in Miami, a setback which snapped a four-game win streak. Overall Milwaukee averages 116.9 PPG and it allows 108.5. The Knicks come in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost four straight, most recently a listless setback at home to the Hawks. The Knicks average 108.6 PPG and they allow 115.9. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 0-5 ATS in its last five at home, while Milwaukee is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-23-18 | Pelicans -1 v. Kings | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans will be eager to get back into the winners circle after a 112-104 road loss to the Lakers on Friday. The Kings enter off a very satisfying 102-99 home win over the Grizzlies and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. New Orleans has dominated this series of late, including a 149-129 home victory in the first meeting this year on October 19th. Overall the Pelicans average 116.3 PPG and they allow 115.2. Sacramento is averaging 114.9 PPG and it’s allowing 116.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a road favorite of six points or less. I’m banking on the Pelicans dominance of this series continuing. Play on New Orleans. 10* play |
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12-23-18 | Charlotte v. TCU -20.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Analysis to come. 10* play |
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12-22-18 | Stanford +8.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dons are 11-1 and the Cardinal are just 6-4 (SU), but I think the value is on the undervalued underdog in this one. The Cardinal have played a difficult non-conference schedule to this point, with three of its setbacks vs. AP Top 25 teams. Stanford though comes in playing its best ball of the young season with two straight wins, most recently a 78-73 defeat of San Jose State. The Dons have beaten Harvard and Cal, but beyond that its opposition has been much weaker to this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite in the 7 to 12.5 points range. while Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in is last six as a road underdog in the 7 to 12.5 points range and 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings -2 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies are in a “free fall” right now and I think the hungry home side takes advantage. The Grizz have lost four straight and six of their last seven. The Kings enter off back-to-back losses as well, over the Wolves and Thunder, so they won’t be lacking any motivation here either. Memphis has been dealing with injury issues again to guard Mike Conley, as well as to forward Omri Casspi. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Western Conference, while the Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when playing on one days rest and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with losing road records. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the Kings. 10* |
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12-21-18 | Oregon v. Baylor -3.5 | Top | 47-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Oregon has only played one true road game this year and it was a 65-61 loss to Houston on December 1st. And that came on the heels of a shocking 89-84 home loss to Texas Southern. Bears fans can empathize. Baylor enters off an upset 59-58 home loss to Stephen F. Austin. Overall Baylor has been the better defensive team this year and I think that’ll be the main difference in the outcome of this one (note that the Bears are giving up just 63.4 PPG overall and they’ve actually held six of their ten opponents to 61 points or fewer.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Oregon is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU win. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* |
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12-20-18 | Ohio +16 v. Purdue | Top | 67-95 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio is 7-3 and the Boilermakers are 6-5. The Bobcats come in off a narrow 63-61 win over Detroit on Saturday. Teyvion Kirk finished with 16 points and seven boards for Ohio, which would go on to outscore Detroit 30-20 in the paint. Purdue comes into this one reeling, loser of five of its last seven after a sharp 4-0 start. Most recently the Boilermakers fell to Texas and Notre Dame. Clearly the competition has been stiff, but I do think that the door is open for Ohio to keep this game competitive as well. Note that the Boilermakers shot just 9 of 29 from range in the loss to the Irish. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a win by six points or less, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more SU losses. Grab the point and expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. 10* play |
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12-19-18 | Warriors -3 v. Jazz | 103-108 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: Stephen Curry returned about two weeks ago and after a shaky stretch, the Warriors have now won six of their last seven. The Jazz are trending in the opposite direction now, having gone just 1-4 in their last five. Speaking of Curry, he’s having an awesome year despite missing a month of action. Curry and Kevin Durant combined for 69 points in a 124-123 win at Utah back on October 19th. Utah comes in ice cold offensively, having not reach the 100-point plateau in back-to-back games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Utah is just 3-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 8* play |
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12-19-18 | Grand Canyon v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are pretty terrible. Grand Canyon is 5-5, while Northern Iowa is 4-6. The Antelopes though are 0-2 in true road games, while the Panther are 2-0 at home. Northern Iowa average 67 PPG and it allows 71. Grand Canyon is averaging 75 PPG and it’s allowing 72. The pick: On paper coach Marjele’s Antelopes have the advantage. But I thick Grand Canyon’s numbers are skewed by the level of competition to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Northern Iowa is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a two games SU/ATS losing streak. Play on the home side. 10* play |
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12-19-18 | Spurs +1 v. Magic | Top | 129-90 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs have gotten back on track of late, most recently destroying the 76ers 123-96 at home on Monday. The Magic return home after knocking off the Jazz 96-89 in Mexico City on Saturday. Note though that this is a big time “in-season” revenge game for SA after the Magic upset them at home 117-110 back on November 4th. SA averages 110.6 PPG and it concedes 110.5. Orlando averages only 104 PPG, while allowing 106.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SA is already 6-1 ATS this year in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Orlando is only 14-26 ATS in its last 40 off an upset win as an underdog. Play on the Spurs. 10* play |
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12-18-18 | Buffalo v. Syracuse -3.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 10-0 and Syracuse is 7-3. The Orange will be motivated to snap the Bulls perfect record and I think the home side will deliver the goods. The Bulls return many of the players from a team that went 27-9 last year and which upset No. 3 Arizona in the NCAA Tourney. The Bulls average 112.5 points per 100 possessions. The Orange average 109.9 points per 100 possessions. The pick: Buffalo has been playing at an extremely high level, but there’s no doubt that this is a difficult road venue. Looking a little closer and we discover that the Bulls are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after eight or more consecutive wins, while Syracuse is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I think LBJ and company will bounce back after a 128-110 road loss in the nation’s capital on Sunday. The Nets on the other hand look ready for a letdown in my estimation after their big 144-127 win over the Hawks on Sunday. The 144 points posted was impressive, but they 127 conceded to the ATL is unacceptable and won’t lead to success over the long-term obviously. LA averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.6. The Nets may have won four in a row, but they’re average 111 PPG and allowing 111.8. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Brooklyn is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 10* play |
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12-17-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Clippers | 131-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry visiting side. Portland broke a two-game slide with a 128-122 home win over Toronto and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. The Clippers’ red hot start is starting to fade quickly in the rear view mirror as they come in having lost three straight. And after this LA has the surging Mavericks and defending champ Warriors up next. Can anyone say classic “trap game?” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games after scoring 125 points or more in a win at home in its previous outing, while LA is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more SU losses. Grab the points. 8* play |
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12-17-18 | Bulls +13 v. Thunder | Top | 96-121 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Thunder are the better team and I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise. I simply feel that the high-powered home side will get caught classically looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this evening. The Bulls come in with confidence as well after a big 98-93 road win in San Antonio on Saturday. The Thunder on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their 110-104 home win over the Clippers. Chicago will also be playing with confidence that it has in fact already beaten OKC this year, 114-112 at home back on December 7. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up as more of a competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while OKC is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-17-18 | Ball State v. Valparaiso | 77-61 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in with identical 6-4 records. Ball State comes in off an 89-77 loss to Evansville. Tahjal Teague had 17 points and eight boards in a losing cause. Valpo on the other hand comes in off a win over George Washington most recently. Bakari Evelyn had 27 points and four assists in the victory. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one favors the more confident home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Ball State is just 1-9 ATS in its last ten following a SU losses, while the Crusaders are still 12-7 ATS in their last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest. Play on Valpo. 8* play |
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12-15-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for an outright upset victory for the hungry Clippers. Oklahoma City looks ripe for the picking here after its 109-98 loss in Denver just last night. The Clippers are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.6 per 100 possessions. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories, but the unit looked “gassed” last night and I think it’ll struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in revenging a loss vs. an opponent in which it scored 110 or more points in, while the Thunder are still only 40-47 ATS in their last 87 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-14-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU comes in off a 68-64 win over Mercer to improve to 72. The Owls average 77.8 PPG and they allow 68.4. Jailyn Ingram averages 19.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 apg. Arkansas State comes in hungry after falling 72-56 to Minnesota this past Saturday. Overall the Red Wolves are averaging 74.9 PPG and allowing 79.1, but a lot of that has to do with the level of competition in the early going in my opinion. Ty Cockfield averages 21.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 spg. I think home court will prove to be big here. The pick: The Red Wolves are the “hungrier” team. Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less, while Arkansas State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after failing to score 58 or more points in its previous outing. Play on Arkansas State. 10* |
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12-13-18 | Eastern Washington +18.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 63-85 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eastern Washington Eagles are just 1-6 and the San Francisco Dons are 8-1. Clearly this is a major mismatch, but I think the home side is going to get caught looking past its lowly opponent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Eagles to sneak in through. Eastern Washington has lost three straight, most recently a 74-67 setback to NDSU, led by 25 points from Jacob Davidson. Overall the Eagles average 62.9 PPG. The Dons average 80.2 PPG and they come in off a very satisfying 79-60 win over the Cal Golden Bears. Can anyone say letdown spot? From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for the underdog. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more straight road losses, while the Dons are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of pick. 10* play |
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12-12-18 | Hawks +9 v. Mavs | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Mavs are the better team, but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Hawks come in with plenty of momentum as well, as they broke a four-game slide with a 106-98 win over the Nuggets on Saturday. John Collins had 30 points and 12 boards in the win. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 5-2 ATS this year after playing two straight at home and 4-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge an in-season loss to an opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-11-18 | Colorado v. New Mexico +5 | Top | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado’s been rolling (7-1 overall and five straight wins) and because of that, I believe it’ll get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. The Lobos are 4-3 and they’ll be focused and eager to get back on track after back-to-back setbacks at the hands of New Mexico State and St. Mary’s. The pick: Colorado is about to being a stretch of six straight games on the road and note that the Buffs are just 9-26 on the road the last three seasons. Take it for what you will as well, but the Buffs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite or pick. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-10-18 | Kings v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Sacramento was a bad team last year and clearly it’s made big strides this season though. The Kings are 13-12, while the once mighty Bulls are just 6-21. Chicago has dealt with injury issues before the season even started though, so expectations going in were low. The Bulls have been getting healthier and they’ve looked better of late and I think they’ll catch this young Kings’ team flat-footed as they finish off their lengthy Eastern swing. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the hungry home side. The pick: Take it for what you as well, but Sacramento is already just 2-4 ATS this season after covering three of its last four against the spread, while Chicago is already 8-5 ATS this season as a home underdog. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-09-18 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans have dominated this series of late and I think that’ll again be the case here (won three straight in the series, including a 118-103 road win in Detroit last Feb.) While the Pelicans are just 5-8 ATS on the road, they’re a solid 7-6 SU overall. The Pelicans average 118.1 PPG and they allow 115.9. Detroit’s lost three straight and it’s just 6-8 ATS at home this year. The Pistons average 109.4 PPG and they allow 109.8. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 40-31 ATS in its last 71 after having lost two of its last three games SU, while Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a very satisfying 129-110 win over the Cavs just last night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back to back on the road. The Pacers also played and won last night (112-90 in Orlando), but clearly home court advantage in the second game of the back-to-back scenario favors Indiana greatly this evening. Note as well that Indiana plays with revenge after falling 111-110 in the first match-up of the season just last week. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is still only 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of the last seven ATS, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five after falling to cover four or five of the last six ATS. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-07-18 | Thunder v. Bulls +9 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder are 16-7 overall, while the Bulls are just 5-20. I think the hungry home side though will catch the Thunder complacent and flat footed Thunder team which comes in off an epic come from behind 114-112 win over Brooklyn in their latest action, a game which saw Paul George explode for 47 points and a game winning three-pointer. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Bulls are terrible, but they’ll be eager to break a seven-game slide, most recently falling 96-90 to Indiana. Lauri Markkanen played will in his second game with 21 points and ten boards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine asa road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog in the same points range. I think OKC finally has a letdown here and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, this one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points. Bulls GOM. |
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12-06-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa +1.5 | Top | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State has won eight of the last ten in this series, but I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor this time around. After four straight wins, including an 81-59 victory over NDSU on Monday, I think Iowa State suffers a letdown here finally. The Cyclones allow only 61.9 PPG, but I think they’ll have their hands full today against a Hawkeyes team desperate to avoid a three-game skid. Iowa has been a beast on the offensive end though, scoring 80.8 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following a SU loss by 20 or more points, while Iowa State is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 on the road. Play on Iowa. 10* play |
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12-05-18 | TCU -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the 5-1 TCU Horned Frogs vs. the 6-3 Mustangs and in my opinion, this spread could easily be a lot larger. TCU has gotten healthier over the last two weeks, with the return of forward Kouat Noi and guard Jaylen Fisher. “[Fisher has] made our offense better without shooting at a high, high percentage,” head coach Jamie Dixon noted. “He has a real good understanding of where other guys on the floor are at. He’s one of our best guys at playing without the ball. His cuts and his movement, that’s what makes us better with him.” SMU has won four straight, but the level of competition gets called into question, most recently a 79-67 win over Oral Roberts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home and only 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. teams with winning records, while TCU is a solid 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Play on TCU. 10* |
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12-05-18 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up. The Clippers posted a 129-126 win over New Orleans on Monday, while the Grizzlies will be the “hungrier” team here after falling 103-95 in Philadelphia in their latest action. Note that this is a revenge game as well after the Clippers posted the 112-107 OT him win earlier in the year. LA is primed for a letdown here at the end of its tough four game road trip. Memphis on the other hand comes in focused and desperate after losing four of its last five. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 3-5 ATS already this season as a road dog of six points or less, while Memphis is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite. Play on the Grizzlies. 10* |
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12-04-18 | Kings v. Suns +6.5 | Top | 122-105 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kings are 11-11 and the Suns are 4-19. The Kings enter off a satisfying 111-110 home win over Indiana and I think they’re primed for a letdown here. The Suns won’t be lacking any motivation obviously after the terrible start to the year, most recently a 120-96 setback at the Lakers on Sunday. Phoenix took three of four in this series last year and I think it’ll keep it competitive here as well. The Kings average 114.3 PPG and they allow 117.1. The Suns average 103 PPG and they allow 113.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a close home win by three points or less, while Phoenix is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 after falling to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-03-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 129-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played last night, meaning that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Clippers come in off a loss to Dallas and they look ripe for the picking. The Pelicans enter off a 119-110 win in Charlotte and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are already just 2-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less, while New Orleans is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite and interestingly 3-1 ATS vs. the Pacific division. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-02-18 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Washington -13 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-2 Washington Huskies aren’t going to take the 6-1 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos for granted here. And that’s because the Gauchos have won five straight, most recently crushing Sacramento State 75-58 on Thursday. But the Huskies are the deeper and more skilled team from the Power Conference and I look for them to lay the hammer down here. Washington bounced back a two-point loss to Minnesota to destroy Eastern Washington 83-59 on Tuesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCSB is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after cover four of its last five ATS, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five after covering as a double digit favorite. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-01-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors come in off a 131-128 road loss in Toronto, a setback which saw star Kevin Durant score 51 points. Golden State has been struggling without Stephen Curry in the line-up, but the proficient point guard makes his triumphant return to the Association this evening and I believe he’ll make all the difference. The Pistons present the perfect opponent to get back on track against and test themselves as Detroit comes in having won four straight. Level of competition though has to be taken into account during the Pistons recent mini-run, most recently a victory over the lowly Bulls. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG and it allows 111.5. Detroit averages 111.8 PPG and it allows 110.7. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim for the Pistons most nights. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous outing, while Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference home games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +7.5 points range. “The Chef” returns and the defending champs return to form. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-01-18 | Kansas State v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: K-State enters off a 77-58 home win over Lehigh, while Marquette comes in off a 76-55 home victory over Charleston Southern. K-State is a difficult opponent, as all five starters return from last year. Northwestern averages only 73.0 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 56.3. Those numbers (especially the defensive ones) are a bit “skewed” though in my opinion due to the level of competition to this point. Golden State won’t be going down without a fight, it’s 5-2 to open the year and it averages 75.3 PPG, while allowing 65.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but K-State is just 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games following three or more consecutive home games and interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Big East. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 at home this season. Expect that unbeaten streak to extend. 10* |
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11-30-18 | Jazz +2 v. Hornets | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah enters off a 101-91 road win over Brooklyn on Wednesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Charlotte took down Atlanta 108-94 at home on Wednesday. These teams split a pair of games last year. The Jazz average 105.3 PPG and they allow 108.1. Big man Rudy Gobert averages 15.3 points, 12.5 boards and 1.95 blocks per game.) The Hornets are averaging 114.9 PPG and they’re allowing 110. Kemba Walker leads the way with 27.4 pints and 6.3 assists per game. The pick: It’s interesting to note though that Utah is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. the Southeast Division, while Charlotte is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. With Donovan Mitchell back in the line-up, the Jazz are an entirely different team. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-30-18 | San Francisco v. Stephen F Austin +9 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-1 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are 4-1 after beating St. Edwards 73-60 on Sunday. Shannon Bogues had 16 points. The Dons are 6-0 and off to their best star ever. Most recently San Francisco beat Dartmouth 84-65 on Saturday. Franke Ferrari had 19 points, four boards and seven assists. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but SFA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while San Francisco is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. |
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11-29-18 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers come in off back-to-back road wins and they’ll be playing without Victor Oladipo, their main offensive weapon. The Lakers have lost two straight after a five-game win skein, including a humbling defeat in Denver last time out. I think the Pacers go through the motions today and I believe “The King” will lay the hammer down from start to finish in this favorable matchup. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference home games on the heels of a two games or more SU/ATS losing streak. Lay the points. |
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11-29-18 | Alabama +7 v. UCF | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 5-1. Alabama enters off a 78-72 home win over Murray State, while UCF comes in off a 66-63 home win over Northern Kentucky. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tide after the Knights recorded the 65-62 road win last year. The Tide average 77 PPG and they allow 70.3. The Knights average 75.3 PPG and they allow 62.3. The pick: Alabama comes from the tougher conference and it’s loaded with talent. I’m expecting a battle between these two titans. Take it for what you will as well, but Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a raod dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while UCF is still 14-15 ATS in its last 29 after allowing 60 points or less. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-28-18 | Suns +12 v. Clippers | 99-115 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: Phoenix is 4-15 and the Clippers are 13-6. LA is at the top of the division, while the Suns are wallowing in the basement. Phoenix has talent and while it’s struggled from range this season, I think it offers great value as an underdog here. LA has won back-to-back games over the Blazers and Grizz and comes in complacent. The Suns have lost back-to-back games after beating the Bucks at home and they enter hungry. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 6-3 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records, while LA is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing on two day rest. Grab the points. |
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11-28-18 | Virginia -3.5 v. Maryland | Top | 76-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams are both undefeated, but I think the Cavs unrelenting defensive attack will once again win the day on Wednesday night. Virginia most recently dominated Wisconsin 53-46 to win the Battle For Atlantis, holding the Badgers to just 2 of 11 from range and 43.8 percent from the floor overall. The Virginia defense is ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing 49.3 PPG. Maryland has been the beneficiary of a weak schedule to this point, with five of its first six games at home. The Terps do come in off an impressive 104-67 destruction of Marshall, but note that this is a spot in which Maryland has struggled in nightly. The pick: As take it for what you will, but the Terps are already a poor 2-4 ATS in their last six non-conference games and just 1-4 ATS at home overall, while the Cavs are 4-2 ATS in non-conference contests and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 on the road. Lay the points. |
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11-27-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 85-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers are a team led by the best basketball talent on Earth, but which is still trying to find its identity on most nights. That’s understandable, as chemistry takes time to develop. Regardless, LA will be out to atone for a 108-104 home loss to Orlando on Sunday. The Nuggets on the other hand return home off a successful road trip and a 105-98 win at OKC on Saturday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” LA averages 114.2 PPG and it allows 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 points and it allows 103.2. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LA is already 4-1 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while Denver is just 4-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and a poor 7-13 ATS in its last 20 after three or more SU wins. Grab the points, expect a “nail biter!” |
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11-27-18 | Southern Illinois v. Colorado State +1.5 | 82-67 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Southern Illinois Salukis got the better of Tusla in their most recent action, part of the Las Vegas Invitational. Colorado State enters off a loss to SDSU in its most recent action. Southern Illinois was destroyed by UMass in its previous outing, but the Salukis bounced back with a win over the Golden Hurricane. Colorado State ha a much better defense though and after its recent setback, I think it bounces back here. Anthony-Masinton Bonner was a bright spot in the Rams most recent setback with 20 points, four boards and two assists. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Salukis are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS win and just 2-8 ATS in their last ten road games as a non-conference fav in the -1 to -7 points range. Play on Colorado State. |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech -1 v. Penn State | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: VT hasn’t started a season 6-0 for the last six years, but it can accomplish that feat tonight in its first true road game of the campaign. VT enters off a dominating 75-37 rout of St. Francis of Pennsylvania on Saturday and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Four players have at least nine three-balls so far this year for the Hokies ash they’re shooting a solid 41.4 percent from range overall. VT is only 5-7 all time in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, but it’s won its last two. PSU comes in off a crushing 59-56 upset loss to Bradley in the title game of the Cancun Classic and I think its ripe for the picking here. Overall the Nittany Lions shot just 4 of 27 from range in the setback. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Penn State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 0.5 and 6.5 points range, while VT is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the short points. |
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11-26-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 131-135 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston will be eager to return to form here after a 117-108 road loss in Cleveland on Saturday. Washington on the other hand looks poised for a letdown in my opinion after a 124-114 win over New Orleans on Saturday. But the Rockets have in fact lost two in a row on the road. Overall the Rockets are averaging 106.9 PPG and they’re allowing 107.9. The Wizards are averaging 112.2 PPG and allowing 117.2. The pick: Previous to their upset win over the Hornets, the struggling Wizards had lost three straight. Note that they’re just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU victory. Lay the points. |
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11-26-18 | Nebraska v. Clemson -3 | 68-66 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 5-1. I think the Huskers have a letdown here though after their big 73-49 win over Western Illinois, while I look for Clemson to come in focused as the more “hungry” side here after a tough 87-82 loss to Creighton. So far the Huskers are averaging 80.5 PPG and allowing 51.7. Clemson is averaging 77.2 PPG and it’s allowing 65.8. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Nebraska is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Clemson is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 non-conference contests. Lay the points. |
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11-25-18 | Oregon State -7.5 v. Long Beach State | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Beavers are rolling. They return from a successful showing in the Virgin Islands State side with a 4-1 record. LBSU on the other hand has done poorly to this point with a 1-3 record. The Beavers feature plenty of talent and veteran experience, led by Tres Tinkle, who had a double-double in all four games in the Virgin Islands tournament. Most recently he had 32 points in the win over Penn. The 49ers lost 87-72 to Utah Valley most recently, with Deishuan Booker a lone bright spot with 17.8 points. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning percentages under .400. I don’t see Oregon State looking past this opportunity. Lay the points. |
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11-24-18 | Rockets v. Cavs +10.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played yesterday. The Cavs enter off a confidence building 121-112 win over Philadelphia, while Houston lost 116-111 in Detroit. This the end of a tough Eastern swing for Houston and I think it’s primed for another letdown here as well. Houston is only averaging 106.6 PPG, while the defense is allowing 105.7. The Cavs are averaging 103.4 PPG and they’re allowing 111.9. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back after winning the first by seven or more points. No outright, but expect a competitive battle. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-24-18 | Princeton -2 v. Monmouth | Top | 60-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Princeton has plenty of new faces from last year’s team, but I still think it’ll have more than enough to take care of Monmouth. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by Las Vegas. The pick: The “edges” for this play though come in the numbers, as note that the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of three points or less and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest, while Monmouth is a poor 7-12 ATS in its last 19 non-conference contests and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. Lay the points. 10* play |
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11-22-18 | College of Charleston v. LSU -6.5 | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: Charleston enters off a 70-58 road loss to Oklahoma State and it comes into the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational to face an LSU team which is unbeaten to this point, most recently downing Louisiana Tech 74-67. The Cougars are averaging 71.5 PPG and they’re allowing 68. Grant Riller lead the way with 19 points and 3.8 assists per night. LSU is averaging 87.5 PPG and it’s allowing 74.3. Naz Reid leads the way with 15.3 points and 5.3 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LSU is a sharp 7-2 ATS in its last nine tournament games after holding its previous opponent to 67 points or less. I think LSU’s depth will be the difference in the end, so lay the points. |
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11-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies are 11-5 and the Spurs are 8-8. The Spurs enter motivated after a loss to the Pelicans, while the Grizz look poised for a letdown after four straight victories. San Antonio has now lost five in a row on the road, but a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for SA to get back on track in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Grizzlies are still a horrible 10-27 ATS in their last 37 following a divisional contest and just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 after three or more consecutive victories, while San Antonio is already 4-1 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing. Look for the Spurs to bound back and for the Grizzlies to finally have a letdown in this difficult arena. Lay the points. |
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off a 127-119 home loss to the Clippers on Saturday and I think the undermanned Nets will struggle against a Heat team out to atone for a 113-97 loss to LBJ and the Lakers. Brooklyn is averaging 109.9 PPG, but it’s allowing 111.3. Miami is averaging 109.3 PPG and it’s allowing 110.6. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Nets are already just 4-5 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more, while the Heat are 18-10 ATS in their last 28 following a loss by ten points or more. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-16-18 | Blazers -1.5 v. Wolves | 96-112 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Blazers come in off a 126-117 road loss to the Lakers. Portland’s dropped two in a row and it’ll be eager to duplicate it’s 111-81 win over the Wolves back on November 4th. Minnesota looks primed for a letdown here as well after its 107-100 home win over New Orleans in my opinion as well. Portland comes in averaging 115.9 PPG and allowing 107.6. Minnesota averages 110.9 PPG and it allows 116.2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-16-18 | Louisiana Tech v. LSU -12 | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: Louisiana Tech is primed for a letdown here in my opinion after starting the year 3-0. Most recently the Bulldogs smashed Harding 89-59. Overall L-Tech is scoring 103.1 points on 100 possessions, while allowing 98.6. The Bulldogs though have turned the ball over 24.3 percent of their offensive possessions, which ranks 305th. LSU is averaging 113 points per 100 possessions and the Tigers come in off back-to-back impressive victories over UNC Greensboro and Memphis. The pick: Take it for what you will, but LSU is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home, while Louisiana Tech is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU win and just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-15-18 | Valparaiso +5.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: WKU enters off an 86-71 home win over UT Martin, while Valparaiso comes in off a 121-65 victory over Concordia Illinois. This is part of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. The Crusaders averaged 70.4 points and allowed 68.2 last year. Ryan Fazekas leads the nightly charge and he had 18 points in Val’s most recent victory. Last year WKU averaged 70.5 PPG and it allowed 72. Taveion Hollingsworth was a standout in the latest win with 22 points. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Valparaiso is 5-2 ATS in its last even neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU win of more than 20 points. Grab the points. |