10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): This play may seem a bit “odd” at first, considering I just won with the Under (1st 5 innings) in yesterday’s game involving the Brewers. All three games vs. the Padres stayed Under as no more than five runs were scored in any of the contests (only three yday). Now the Brew Crew are matched up with the division rival Cardinals, who are tied with them for the fourth fewest runs allowed in the National League this season. Two solid starting pitchers have resulted in a low total being set for the series opener on Thursday. But I believe the value here is on the Over. 

It’s all about matchups. Eric Lauer is off to a solid start to the year for Milwaukee, but his numbers go up on the road and he’ll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is red hot at the moment. St. Louis comes into tonight having scored an average of 6.6 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .296. They’d collected 10 or more hits in six straight games before losing to Toronto 8-1 on Tuesday. The Over is 3-0-1 the L4 times St. Louis has faced a left-handed starter. Lauer, a southpaw, has seen the Over hit in four of his seven starts so far and only one had less than seven total runs scored. He allowed 3 HRs the last time he made a start away from home. Lauer’s ERA in four career appearances vs. St. Louis is 7.90. 

 Adam Wainwright goes here for the home team. The veteran also has nice numbers this year, but here he’s facing a Milwaukee lineup that has been killing righties. The Brewers are scoring 5.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter. You’ve got to think that after the San Diego series, where they didn’t do much at the plate but still won two of three, the Brew Crew’s bats are ready to “break out.” Eight or more total runs have been scored in each of Wainwright’s last four starts and when he faced Milwaukee on April 14th, he gave up four runs in just 4 ⅓ innings. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

9* Under Cubs/Reds (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on this series was Tuesday when I had the Cubs and they rolled to an easy 11-4 victory. The Northsiders also won Monday’s opener, but on Wednesday it was the Reds’ turn to get into the win column, 4-3, as the Cubs failed to score between the first and ninth innings. I expect this afternoon’s series finale to also be a low-scoring affair as the two starting pitchers, Justin Steele for the Cubs and Hunter Greene for the Reds, have a lot to offer.

Greene has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts, one of which saw him pulled despite having a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He was just as sharp last Saturday against Toronto where he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings. There’s obviously not a ton to celebrate in the Queen City this season, but Greene is someone to keep an eye on, despite a misleading 1-7 team start record. His average velocity is 99 MPH and he has a strikeout rate of 27.9%. He’s better than his ERA suggests.

The Cubs counter with Steele, who has a 1.80 ERA and 0.867 WHIP over his L3 starts, even better than Greene. He also has a strikeout rate above 26 percent. The Reds’ lineup is quite lousy as they are hitting a collective .217. Also, they are 2-10 in games vs. left-handed starters. Steele is a southpaw. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid so far this season, ranking third in xFIP during the month of May. This being a day game, don’t go expecting many runs. 9* Under Cubs/Reds

10* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): The Dodgers, who are clearly the best team in baseball right now, are on fire at the plate. They’ve put up an average of nearly seven runs per game (themselves) over the last week and were 10-1 winners in Monday’s series opener here in the Nation’s Capital. Unsurprisingly, LA is a big moneyline favorite again tonight with Walker Buehler on the mound. I expect their string of high-scoring efforts to continue against former teammate Josiah Gray, but Buehler will likely give up some runs too and that makes the Over the right call in this one.

Buehler’s strikeout rate is down this season and he has a 4.24 ERA/1.412 WHIP over his L3 starts. Now that’s mostly due to him giving up five runs in five innings to the Phillies, what ended up being a wild 12-10 game. But Buehler has gone just five innings in four of his last six starts, including three of the last four. On the surface, Washington’s offensive numbers at home look pretty bad (just 2.7 rpg!) but I’d look for them to improve, Juan Soto specifically as he currently is at a career-low in both batting average and OPS. It’s only a matter of time before he turns things around at the plate. The Nats have 36 hits in their L4 games, so the fact they’ve scored 1 run or less in three of them seems a bit unlucky to me. 

But you can count on the Dodgers to do most of the scoring in this game. They come in having scored a league-high 131 runs this month (6.2 per game) and the Nationals’ pitching staff happens to have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball. Gray, who was sent to Washington as part of the Max Scherzer trade, has a 6.43 ERA and 1.5571 WHIP at home and he’s allowed four or more runs in three of his eight starts overall. I like this total as we’re still below the key number of 9 and I expect just as many total runs scored as we saw yesterday. 10* Over Dodgers/Nationals

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): I thought for sure that I had the Under cashed in Game 3 of this series. With 48 seconds remaining, the Heat were up 100-94. The total was 208.5. Stranger things have certainly happened, but you don’t normally see 15+ points scored over the final 48 seconds. Well, Game 3 saw 18 as there were a couple technical fouls plus Boston kept making “garbage time” threes. The Over is now 3-0 in this series, which is not what most were expecting and going back to 2020, the teams are 8-0-1 Over when facing each other in the Conference Finals. Don’t you think it’s time for an Under? 

There’s a good chance Miami enters Game 4 shorthanded as six players (Lowry, Tucker, Herro, Strus, Vincent and Butler) are all listed as questionable. Though they won despite him leaving Game 3 early, Butler not playing would be significant as he’s been the unquestioned “go to guy” for the Heat at the offensive end in these playoffs. Butler is averaging nearly 30 PPG in the postseason. Bam Adebayo scored 31 in Game 3. Though he should again rack up some good stats, especially if multiple teammates are out, Adebayo isn’t likely to match his Game 3 scoring output as he scored only 16 in the first two games combined. 

I can’t see Jaylen Brown scoring 40 again for the Celtics either. His previous playoff high was 30. A big key in this series is that we’ve seen high-scoring first halves. The team with the lead at the half (Boston twice) has scored at least 62 points. I don’t anticipate that being the case in Game 4 as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league and neither allows more than 53.2 per game in the 1H for the year. So look for the scoring to (finally) slow down as Boston is 12-6 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): The expectation was that the Eastern Conference Finals would be pretty low-scoring. After all, Boston led the league in scoring defense (104.5 PPG) during the regular season and has been even stingier in the playoffs (103.1 PPG allowed). Not to be overlooked is the fact the Under was 8-2-1 in Miami playoff games in Rounds 1 and 2 with them turning in the second best defensive efficiency rating during that time. The Heat have allowed an average of just 100.5 PPG in the postseason. That’s even after the first two games saw way more points scored than what was expected. 

With these two teams combining to go 14-0 Over in their L14 Conference Finals games, I think that it’s time to go “the other way” here in Game 3. Boston shot 51% in Game 2 and made 20 threes, numbers they probably can’t hope to match tonight. For a frame of reference, the Celtics shot 45.6% in Game 1 and made only 11 threes. Save for the third quarter of Game 1, they really have looked like the better team in this series. That dubious third quarter is the only quarter in the two games where the Celtics were outscored. (Teams were even in the third and fourth in Game 2). I just don’t think we’re going to see the same amount of scoring from Boston, especially in the first half, tonight. 

Miami shot just 29.4% from three-point range in the last game. They’ll likely improve from that, but not by enough to affect the total. I expect this game to be played at a slower pace. The Celtics have allowed 103 points or fewer in six of their last nine games. The Heat have allowed 103 or less in 7 of their last 10 games. I think for tonight, the winning team may only need 100. Miami has not allowed 100+ points in three straight games during these playoffs. This is the highest O/U line of the series. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Under Empoli/Atalanta (2:45 ET): Atalanta enters the final matchday of their Serie A season in desperate need of a result. They are tied with Fiorentina (both at 59 points) but lose the tiebreaker based on head to head points. That means Atalanta must finish ahead of La Viola in order to qualify for the Europa Conference League, a spot that only opened up because the winners of the Coppa Italia (Inter) had already qualified for the Champions League, so the corresponding Europa League spot is then passed down to the sixth place finisher (clinched by Roma) on Friday.

If Fiorentina loses to Juventus on Saturday, then a draw will suffice here for Atalanta. La Dea may not want to leave that to chance though. Still, I suspect this fixture will be lower scoring than the reverse, which saw Atalanta prevail 4-1. Empoli has endured a simply dreadful run of form lately, winning just ONCE in their last 21 matches! That run has seen them slip only to 14th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, which last year’s Serie B champs will gladly take as the only goal this season was to survive and remain in the Italian top flight. Last week, Empoli could only muster a 1-1 draw with relegation-threatened Salernitana. 

Now Atalanta’s recent form hasn’t been so great either, which is why they are in this predicament. They’ve posted only two wins in their last 10 matches and those victories came against Spezia and Venezia, two bottom of the table sides, the latter having already been relegated. Atalanta couldn’t even get on the scoresheet last week vs. AC Milan, losing 2-0. Goal differential does not matter to La Dea here, all they need is one goal and then try to hold Empoli off for the three points. Not sure if Fiorentina will cooperate, but the task at hand seems rather easy for Atalanta this week. 10* Under Empoli/Atalanta

9* Over Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston easily won last night’s series opener, 5-1, their second straight game that finished with that exact score. They came out on the losing end against Boston on Wednesday, but this is a series that figures to continue to go the Astros’ way. After all, they are 40-19 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 14-2 their L16 home games vs. the Rangers. But I’m more interested in the total on tonight’s game as this should be a lot higher scoring compared to last night. You can watch on Apple TV! 

Houston’s pitching has obviously been outstanding this year, but Cristian Javier (Friday’s starter) doesn’t have much to do with that. In three starts, Javier has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He gave up seven runs in his last start, a game the Astros ended up losing 13-6 to the Nationals. While Javier only allowed two runs in five innings when he faced the Rangers back in April, and has consistently fared well against them in the past, the Rangers’ left-handed heavy lineup should consistently make contact and hit the ball hard off Javier tonight. Texas had scored 6+ runs in four straight games coming into this series.

Houston has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games and averaged 6.0 rpg in its last seven contests. Now Martin Perez gets the baseball here for the Rangers and not only has he been sharp recently (2-0, 0.84 ERA L5 starts), his 2.84 career ERA vs. Houston (15 starts) is his lowest versus any opponent. But I’ll call for some regression here as I’m not sure I see Perez going 6+ innings a sixth straight time. Note that both teams have seen their L7 games average more than 10 runs. 9* Over Rangers/Astros

9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa (3:00 ET): So this one is huge for Burnley as they try and escape the drop zone (bottom three) in the Premier League. All it would take is a draw to draw level with Leeds United at 35 points and Burnley would be way ahead on goal differential, thus avoiding relegation to the Championship. But with one more matchday to go after this (Sunday) where they will face a resurgent Newcastle United, a win would be quite nice for the Clarets. Problem is, even against what is probably going to be an unmotivated Aston Villa club, I can’t really trust them on the road. 

Burnley turned in a game effort last weekend against Tottenham Hotspur, a top four side trying to play its way into next season’s Champions League. But they came up short, 1-0, the lone goal being a Harry Kane penalty in first half stoppage time. It marked the fifth time in the last seven matches that the Clarets scored 1 or 0 goals and they haven’t scored more than two in any fixture since a 3-2 win over Everton back on April 6th. Prior to that win, the Clarets had been blanked in four consecutive matches. So you can see why they are in the position they are in. Only last place Norwich City has scored fewer times than Burnley this season in EPL action. 

Aston Villa no longer needs to worry about the threat of relegation, but they have suffered 18 defeats this campaign, which is two more than Burnley has and tied for fourth most in the entire English top flight. Villa is coming off a tough 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace (where I again had the Under) and both goals scored came in the final half hour. Villa gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. It was less than two weeks ago they beat Burnley 3-1, but I can’t see Villa scoring three times again here and Burnley’s lone goal in that reverse came in stoppage time. 9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa

9* Under White Sox/Royals (2:10 ET): So we’ve got two starting pitchers with pretty ugly numbers in this series finale, but the way the previous four games have gone, I’m not expecting many runs here. Not only have the White Sox only scored a grand total of 11 runs so far against KC pitching, there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 16 of their last 20 games with the Under going 14-5-1. Chicago has scored only six runs total its last three games and is facing an opponent that averages only 2.6 rpg at home. Take the Under in this divisional matchup. 

The Under is 12-6-1 in Royals’ home games this season, including 3-0-1 in this series. There have been eight total runs scored in two of the four games and just three total in the other two. As alluded to above, I think we’re getting an inflated number here because of the two starting pitchers, neither of whom have very good numbers on the season. But Kansas City’s Carlos Hernandez is 3-0 all-time vs. Chicago with a 2.70 ERA. Hernandez has been rocked in B2B starts, but note the last one was at Coors Field. His final three starts of April all saw him allow 3 ER or less. The White Sox are hitting only .218 in games where they face a left-handed starter. 

Vince Velaquez was originally going to start yesterday’s game for Chicago, but he was bumped back (in favor of Lucas Giolito) and I think the extra day of rest will work in his favor. As mentioned earlier, Kansas City has simply not been scoring much at home. Only Oakland has averaged fewer runs at home this season. Velasquez, like Hernandez, did get rocked his last time out. But that came against the Yankees. In the two starts prior, Velasquez had allowed a total of only one run in 10 ⅔ innings. He allowed more HRs (3) last time out than he did in his previous five starts combined (2). A bounce back is in order today. 9* Under White Sox/Royals

9* Under Yankees/Orioles (12:35 ET): Baltimore hopes to avoid what would be a four-game sweep here, at home, but that’s easier said than done as they’re up against a Yankees team that is 23-4 its last 27 games and off to one of the best starts in franchise history. Not only have the Orioles lost six straight times to the Yankees, they’ve also lost six in a row overall. Yesterday’s game, a 3-2 Yanks’ win, was the lowest scoring of this series and I figure we’re in store for another one like that here as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound Thursday afternoon. Take the Under. 

This will be the third time this season that NY’s Jordan Montgomery is facing Baltimore. Montgomery may not have a win against the O’s, or any one else for that matter, but he does have a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP, so he’s probably “due.” The two starts vs. Baltimore have seen Montgomery yield just two runs and seven hits in 10 ⅔ IP. Both games stayed Under. Incredibly, all seven of Montgomery’s starts have stayed Under this year as he’s the one pitcher the Yanks can’t seem to score for. In six of the seven games, they’ve scored three runs or less. But the O’s should continue their struggles vs. lefties as the Yanks are allowing just 2.9 rpg in day games (opponents hitting .216). 

Bruce Zimmerman has inarguably been Baltimore’s best starter in 2022. He checks in with a 1.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and hopes the Yanks’ struggles to support Montgomery continue. They should as Zimmerman has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. Three times he hasn’t allowed ANY earned runs and two of those were against the Yankees! Save for Aaron Judge, most of the NY lineup hasn’t had much success against Zimmerman, or lefties in general, at least as of late. The Under is now 25-11-2 in all Orioles’ games this season, which includes 13-1-1 when they are up against a LH starter. This promises to be a good ol’ fashioned pitchers’ duel. 9* Under Yankees/Orioles

10* Under Mavs/Warriors (9:00 ET): Dallas stunned the basketball world with its 33-point Game 7 victory at Phoenix Sunday night. They allowed just 27 first half points and 50 through three quarters! So while this team has been notably better at home on the defensive end, it would be foolish to discount what they can do on the road. Golden State is also a team that’s underrated defensively. They allow only 103.1 PPG at home (2nd lowest, only trailing Dallas) and also finished the regular season #1 in defensive efficiency. Something else that must be considered when handicapping this series is that Dallas plays at an incredibly slow pace (last in tempo during the regular season). I’m on the Under in Game 1. 

Over its last five games vs. Memphis, the Warriors only averaged 109.8 points and that was with the 142-point explosion in Game 3. Dallas will easily be the best defensive team that the Warriors have faced this postseason as the Nuggets and Grizzlies ended up 15th and 12th in scoring defense. The Mavs allowed just 96.2 PPG the L5 games and 101.9 for the entire playoffs. This despite facing the team that tied for the regular season lead in offensive efficiency (Utah) and a top five scoring offense (Phoenix). Back to tempo, Dallas is playing even slower than they did in the regular season. Obviously, they’re going to look to slow these games vs. the Warriors to a “snail’s pace.”

While I expect the Dallas defense to shine tonight, do not look for the team to shoot 56.8% from the field again as it did in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. In three of its last four home games, Golden State has allowed fewer than 100 points. Luka Doncic is coming off a monster series (32.6 PPG), but I do not expect him to find that same kind of success here vs. the Warriors. Two of the four regular season matchups between these teams were low-scoring (208 or less pts scored) while the other two were high-scoring (228+). I expect something along the lines of the former. 10* Under Mavs/Warriors

10* Over D’backs/Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers hit a bit of a “rough patch” there “for a second,” at one point losing four in a row and five of six. But they’ve clearly recovered, spurred on by a late rally against the Phillies on Sunday (I was on Dodger Blue that day) and now they’ve taken three straight from the division rival D’backs. They go for the series sweep this afternoon with Walker Buehler on the mound and there’s probably little doubt in anyone’s mind as to which side will win this matinee. But I don’t think there’s much value in backing LA in this spot, even on the run line. Instead, let’s turn to the total. 

Los Angeles is my #1 rated team in all of baseball right now as they are +81 in run differential. Only one other team is above +50 and that’s the Yankees (+74). No team has scored more runs this season than have the Dodgers (198) and over the L7 games they’ve averaged a whopping 7.0 runs. At home, they are averaging 5.9 rpg for the season. So the D’backs starter, Zach Davies, figures to find himself in the “deep water” here, especially with a 5.12 FIP on the road. Davies has actually pitched pretty well in 2022, but has not gone longer than five innings in any of his three road outings. 

All three games in this series have gone Over. In yesterday’s doubleheader, Arizona jumped out to leads of 3-0 and 2-0, but was obviously unable to hold either time. Still them scoring nine runs Tuesday is a positive sign for this play as is their ability to score on the Dodgers’ starters. Buehler is notoriously tough, but does have a 4.35 ERA and 1.645 WHIP at home through four starts. Those numbers coupled with a Dodgers’ bullpen that has been subpar of late lead me to believe the road team is going to score some runs here as well. Over the L7 games, the Dodgers are allowing an average of 6.6 runs! 10* Over D’backs/Dodgers

10* Over Reds/Guardians (6:10 ET): I’m a little surprised that this O/U isn’t higher. These are two of the top four Over teams in baseball over the first month with the Reds being #1. The reason for Cincy being so far in front of the rest of the pack in the Over department is pretty clear. Their horrendous pitching staff is giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game, most in all of MLB. As a result, they’ve gone Over 64.7% of the time. No other team has gone Over more than 58.8% of its games. Cleveland is 4th (57.6%), more due to its offense, which has produced the third most runs in the American League. But also only one AL team has allowed more runs per game. 

With the Reds and then the Tigers coming to town over the next week, the Guardians would seem to have an excellent opportunity to move up the standings. They’re 16-17 right now, 3.5 games back of the Twins, but also are one of only five AL teams to currently have a positive YTD run differential. But despite the (seemingly) favorable matchup today, expect Cleveland to give up some runs. Starter Zach Plesac has a 4.68 ERA and has shown little signs of improvement, turning in a 8.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his last three outings. 

It did not take long for this season to be a disaster for the Reds. They have the worst record & run differential. The unthinkable happened on Sunday as they threw a no-hitter and lost 1-0! Maybe that’s why we’re getting such good value with this number. Connor Overton has been one of the Reds’ better starters, but he’s also gotten to face Pittsburgh in two of his three starts. Overton had four walks and just one strikeout his last time out, which is concerning. These teams played two games in Cincinnati earlier this year. Cleveland won both and there were 15 and 10 total runs scored. Look for another slugfest tonight. 10* Over Reds/Guardians

9* Under Nationals/Marlins (6:40 ET): The ML odds have shot up for this series opener, which I suppose makes sense given the Nationals’ general ineptitude (12-24 record) and the fact they’ve already been swept once by the Marlins this season. But the only other time Miami was this large of a ML favorite in 2022, they lost. Plus the Fish aren’t exactly flashing fine form at the moment. They’ve dropped 11 of 14 overall here in May. What I’ve got my eyes on here is the total, which is also on the move. 

Washington road games have averaged 11.3 runs so far this season. That’s easily the most in all of baseball. There were three games in Colorado, in case you were wondering. What’s unique about the average is that the Nats are scoring the most runs per game in all of MLB, away from home. They are also giving up the fourth most. It’s unsustainable, at least to this degree. Over the team’s last four games, all of which were at home, they scored 1 run or less three times. I think we’re about to see that meager offense start to “travel.” 

Sandy Alcantara is off a very sharp outing where he held Arizona to just one run on two hits over 7 IP. That game did end up going Over, but it was an 11-3 Miami win and they scored eight of those runs in the top of the ninth (I had Miami!). Alcantara also held Washington to just one run over six innings back on 4/29. Overall, he’s allowed 2 ER or less in all but one start this season. The Marlins’ offense has largely been “feast or famine” this year and has scored three times or less in 7 of the last 10 games. That’s good news for Washington starter Aaron Sanchez, who had a 0.93 ERA in two starts vs. Miami last year. 9* Under Nationals/Marlins

10* Under Mavs/Suns (8:00 ET): I hit the Over in Game 1, but this is a series that has seen the Under take over - cashing each of the last four games. Two of those four games I’ve hit the Under, three of the games saw fewer than 200 total points scored. This will be the lowest O/U line of the series in Game 7, not surprising based on the trajectory of the series as well as the well-known trend about betting totals in Game 7’s of the NBA Playoffs. Since ‘03, Game 7 Unders have hit 63% of the time, helped by a typically slower tempo and the referees “swallowing their whistles.” I’m following the historical trend on this one. 

Phoenix is hoping another trend plays out in this Game 7. Home teams have performed very well historically in Game 7s, going 109-33 straight up, including 9-1 when favored by six or more (as the Suns are right now, as of press time). Plus, the home team has gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in this series so far. But it is difficult to look past the fact that the Suns had the lowest Round 1 net efficiency rating of any team that advanced and they are only outscoring Dallas by less than a point per game since Game 3. So I’ve got no interest in laying the points here. Especially since the Suns’ shooting has come back “down to Earth” (just 39.7% in Game 6). 

The Suns are 12-3 Under playing with exactly two days of rest this season. They are also 12-4 Under off a SU loss as a favorite, 10-2 Under off a double digit loss and 8-1 Under after being held below 100 points the previous game. So there’s even more trends. Dallas may not be as stout defensively on the road as they are at home, but they also won’t make 16 threes again like they did in Game 6. The Mavs not only played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season; they’ve also played at the slowest pace in the playoffs, of any team that advanced to the second round. 10* Under Mavs/Suns

10* Over Mariners/Mets (1:40 ET): The Mets haven’t lost a series all year and will look to extend their streak to 10-0-1 here on Sunday. (They split a four-game series with Atlanta earlier this month, but that’s the only of their 10 previous series they didn’t win). Now they almost blew having an opportunity to win this series with Seattle as Saturday saw the Mets blow a four-run lead in the latter innings. But third-string catcher Patrick Mazeika won it in the bottom of the seventh with a tiebreaker home run. The Mets now have the best record in the National League (23-12) and are second in the overall standings, trailing only the Yankees.

Seattle won the first game of this series, 2-1 on Friday. They were huge +215 ML underdogs, facing Max Scherzer. But sloppy play in the field (three errors) cost them yesterday plus they left the bases loaded in the first inning. The Mariners, who I expected to regress here in 2022, have now dropped 13 of their last 17 games. They’ll send Robbie Ray to the bump today and he has struggled so far, producing a 4.22 ERA. Ray did have a season-high 10 K’s his last start, but before that, strikeouts were down and walks were up compared to last season. Ray also has a 1.473 WHIP on the road. 

The Mets, now 11-1 after a loss this season, counter with Carlos Carrasco. His numbers, especially at home (0.87 ERA, 0.822 WHIP), have been very good. But don't be surprised if he struggles a bit here. Carrasco also doesn’t have great strikeout numbers and he was rocked earlier this year by St. Louis. He has followed that up with B2B quality starts, including eight shutout innings vs. Atlanta. But I expect Carrasco’s numbers to go up and this looks like a really low total to jump on. The Over is 15-3 in the Mariners’ last 18 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Mariners/Mets

9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa (9:00 AM ET): Out of contention for the European places, but safe from relegation, it’s going to be a mid-table finish for both Crystal Palace and Aston Villa this Premier League season. I’d argue Crystal Palace is due to possibly move up a few spots, into the Top 10, before the season is complete as the Eagles actually boast the 7th highest xPts (expected points) total in the league right now. They have never finished higher than 10th in the English top flight (currently 11th w/ 44 points), so that is something to keep them motivated these last three fixtures. 

Aston Villa is just one point back of CP entering matchday 36, but they do have an inferior GD and the gap is much wider on xPts. But like CP, Villa has shown decent form down the stretch. We played them +1.5 earlier in the week against Liverpool and thanks to an early goal (3rd minute!), they were able to cash in what ended up being a 2-1 loss to one of the two best Premier League sides. Giving up the equalizer so quickly (sixth minute) was not ideal, but the game-winner for Liverpool didn’t come until the 65th minute. Note that in their previous three matches, Villa had conceded a total of just one goal, that coming in stoppage time vs. Burnley (when Villa was already ahead 3-0). 

Similarly, Crystal Palace has been stingy of late. They’ve conceded just two goals in the last four matches and they won for us (1-0 over Watford) last week. That makes it three in a row w/o a loss for the Eagles. I am expecting a low-scoring encounter on Sunday, not as free-wheeling as you might expect between two mid-table sides at this stage of the campaign. Both are hungry for that top half finish, so we won’t be seeing many goals at Villa Park. Palace is actually third from the bottom in xG (expected goals) on their travels this season. Four of the last five meetings have seen one - or both - sides fail to hit the scoresheet. 9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa

9* Under Blue Rays/Rays (6:10 ET): I think we’ve got a great value on the total in today’s Blue Jays-Rays matchup. Both teams are staring up at the Yankees in the AL East and figure to do so the rest of the way. Right now, not just the AL East, but the entire American League seems wide open as only five teams have positive run differentials and only six have winning records. Interestingly, these are two of the six, but neither has a positive run differential. Despite what, on paper, looks to be an “ugly” starting pitching matchup, I say to look for a lower-scoring game than anticipated here. 

It was 5-2 in the Rays’ favor last night. That was an Over though based on the closing number of 6.5. Six of Toronto’s last seven games have gone Over, even though they are batting a collective .216 during that stretch. The Rays have been even weaker at the plate over that stretch, hitting .212. Tampa Bay has seen three of its last four games go Over, but that includes giving up a ton of runs in two games vs. the Angels, who they are no longer facing. This being a divisional matchup, there’s more familiarity between the two clubs and that typically leads to lower-scoring games. It’s been pretty rare to see a total of 8.0 or higher for either of these two teams recently. 

Now a big reason for the inflated total is the two starting pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu was not good in either of his first two starts, giving up 11 runs in 7 ⅓ innings. But he hasn’t pitched in a month (was dealing with forearm inflammation). I’m looking for a far better outing here as Ryu has a 2.70 ERA in four previous trips to the mound vs. TB. Ryan Yarbrough had a bad first start of 2022 for the Rays, but then tossed five shutout innings vs. Seattle in his second (and most recent) start. He is 8-2 (with a 3.23 ERA) all-time vs. Toronto. The Under is 8-1-3 the L11 meetings between these two, including 7-1-1 here at Tropicana Field. 9* Under Blue Jays/Rays

10* Over Tigers/Orioles (4:10 ET): These are two of the perennial “also-rans” in the American League, but the Orioles aren’t half-bad in 2022. Well, they’re still 14-19 overall and did just lose last night 4-2 to the Tigers. But we’re talking about a ballclub that has been the worst in baseball over the last several seasons, losing 108+ games each of the L3 years that there have been 162 games played. Right now, it is Detroit that owns the worst record in the AL (10-23) even after Friday’s victory. 

I expect more runs to be scored in Saturday’s matinee. While the starting pitching matchup seems decent, from both teams' perspective, neither team is shy about giving up runs. Baltimore allows 5.2 runs per game on the road, so that alone makes this total seem VERY low. Detroit is not exactly a force offensively, but they do score more at home than they do on the road. They will face Bruce Zimmerman, who has been much improved for the O’s this season, with a 1.78 ERA and 1.121 WHIP. But I’m not at all convinced that will continue. Baltimore’s bullpen is also not very good. 

The Tigers turn to Michael Pineda as their Saturday starter. Like Zimmerman, Pineda is off to a better than expected start with a 3.43 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. All four of his starts have gone Under, but in two of them he received literally no run support (as in the Tigers were shutout). I don’t see that being the case here and Pineda did have a starter earlier this year where he allowed three home runs. 10* Over Tigers/Orioles

10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well, Game 5 DID go Over (as I predicted), just not in the manner that I thought it might. My thought was that it would be Golden State responding from a Game 4 performance where it shot just 40% overall and 24.3% from three-point range. Memphis was also due for a little three-point improvement itself (they shot 25.7% in Game 4). What actually happened though was the Grizzlies exploding for 134 points in a one-sided beatdown! Thus the series heads back to Golden State, with the Grizz still trailing three games to two. The Warriors are big favorites to close things out tonight at home, but I think the better play here is the Under. 

For the record, the Warriors DID improve their shooting in Game 5. They made five more threes than they did in Game 4, but wound up attempting their fewest number of shots in any game in the series (80) and had just 13 FT attempts (made 9). Other than their own offensive explosion (142 points) in Game 3, the Dubs have now been held to 101 pts or less in three of the last four games. So Memphis has done an excellent job defensively in this series. We’ve also yet to see B2B Overs. 

I don’t see the Grizzlies making 43.9% from behind the arc again as they did in Game 5. Of course, they are still without Ja Morant.  Even though the team is 21-6 SU when Morant sits this season, that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect big points from them here. They won’t be at home tonight as they were in Game 5. Golden State is allowing just 103.2 PPG at home, second fewest in the league. Memphis had seven players finish in double figures Weds night, but none had more than 21. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors have been off a loss. With this being the lowest O/U of the series, the Over will be tempting to some. But not me. 10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

9* Over Guardians/Twins (8:10 ET): Cleveland is dealing with a COVID outbreak and won’t have skipper Terry Francona on the bench Friday, nor most of the coaching staff. Pitching coach Carl Willis will manage the team this weekend. I was set to fade the Guardians on Wednesday when their game was postponed. That was due to the fact Aaron Civale was going to start. Civale will instead start tonight’s series opener vs. the Twins, who have been struggling at the plate including two shutout losses in their last three games. But Civale’s numbers indicate this is a spot where Minnesota can get back on track - at least offensively. 

Civale has a 9.45 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. All five of his starts have gone Over with the opposition combining to score 38 runs. That’s an average of more than 7.0 per game. Lately, things have gotten even worse for Civale as he has an 11.37 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in his L3 starts. Most of his struggles have been on the road where he has a 12.20 ERA and 2.227 WHIP in three outings. Yes, the Twins did only muster three totals runs in their last series and I cashed an Under bet on them yesterday. But they are no longer facing the Astros’ pitching staff. Cleveland is bottom six right now in runs allowed per game. 

But the surprising thing about the Guardians is that they are tied for fifth for most runs scored per game. Them and the woeful Reds, who have surrendered the most runs in all of baseball, are the only two teams to have seen 60% or more of their games go Over the total thus far. Here the Guardians’ lineup will face Sonny Gray, whose numbers look okay until you realize he’s only pitched 10 ⅓ innings. His walk rate is a concern and I expect him to struggle this evening. That will be a problem for the Twins as their bullpen is taxed right now. 9* Over Guardians/Twins

10* Under Brewers/Marlins (6:40 ET): We have two tremendous starting pitchers on the mound for this series opener between the Brewers and Marlins. The Brewers’ Corbin Burnes has seen five of his six starts stay Under the total (one push), due in no small part to the fact he is sporting a 1.86 ERA and 0.802 WHIP. For the Marlins, they’ve got Pablo Lopez, who has a 1.25 ERA and 0.889 WHIP. So, in other words, do not expect either team to come close to putting up the same number of runs they scored in their last game. 

Milwaukee just got done facing Cincinnati, which should have been an easy series, but instead they dropped two of three games in the Queen City. Shockingly, the Brewers’ staff allowed 28 runs in those three games including 14 in a wild loss on Wednesday. Normally, when you score 11 times against the Reds, that should be an automatic win. But alas, it was not for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. Note that while Miami also scored 11 runs on Weds (and I cashed them in a ML victory), eight of those came in the top of the ninth. Prior to that inning, the Marlins were on pace to score three runs or less for the sixth time in seven games.

Burnes won the NL Cy Young last season, in case you forgot. It would certainly appear as if he’s going to be in contention for that award again in 2022. He’s gone at least six innings in five straight starts while never allowing more than 2 ER. And there have been six or fewer total runs scored in four of those five contests. The Marlins have five regulars in their everyday lineup hitting under .220. Doesn’t sound optimal when facing Burnes. But Miami’s saving grace here could be Lopez, whose ERA is the lowest right now in the NL He’s allowed no runs in four of his last five starts and just went eight innings his last time out. The Brewers will be without DH McCutchen. 10* Under Brewers/Marlins

10* Under Heat/76ers (7:05 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the 76ers, who are facing elimination after being blown out of the water Tuesday in Miami. They lost 120-85, shooting only 36.5% overall and 28.1% from three-point range. I made a terrible call taking the Sixers plus the points in that game, but will look to atone for it here by playing the Under. Yes, you should obviously expect Philadelphia to shoot better than it did in Game 5. But the road team has shot poorly in all five games in this series, so look for Miami to regress from its 53.6% shooting (13 of 33 from three) in the last game. 

In Games 3 and 4 here in Philadelphia, the Heat went a combined 14 of 65 from three-point range. That’s 21.5%. One of the games saw them finish with only 79 points as a team. Other than Jimmy Butler, no Miami player has been a factor offensively here in the city of Brotherly Love. Butler’s teammates combined to go just 25 of 62 (40%) in Game 4. In Game 3, they totaled only 46 points! Miami will be without Kyle Lowry again tonight. 

Miami’s defense, as expected, has been outstanding in this series. For the playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 98.2 PPG and the Under is 7-2. They’ve held the Sixers below 100 points in three of the five games, including twice since Joel Embiid has returned. Aside from Game 4, James Harden has been subpar, scoring 20 pts or less in the other four games. Philly has now been held below 100 in four of its last seven games. While it’s never happened in consecutive games, tonight may break that pattern. 10* Under Heat/76ers

9* Under Astros/Twins (3:10 ET): Houston is blistering hot right now, having won its last eight games. Now there’s a small chance that win streak could be over by the time this game gets underway. That’s due to the fact that yday’s game here in Minnesota was suspended (in the 4th inning) due to rain. Now it’s more likely that the Astros will be on a nine-game win streak when we get to the first pitch here as they are up 5-1 in the suspended game. Regardless of the result of the resumed game today, I like the Under here as the ‘Stros have allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games and 13 of the last 14! 

There’s a good chance that streak extends another game as well, considering the Twins have only one run on the board in the game that will be completed beforehand. Starting the “second” game for Houston will be Luis Garcia, who has certainly contributed to his team’s amazing pitching run by delivering B2B quality starts. Last time out, Garcia allowed only two runs (one unearned) and two hits over seven innings. He has a 1.80 ERA on the road and will be facing a Twins’ lineup that is still without Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton only returned yesterday (from a hip injury) and was 0 for 2 with a strikeout. 

Truly incredible is that the Houston pitching staff has posted four shutouts in the last eight games and has given up only eight runs total! So Minnesota is going to need a strong outing here and I think they get it from Josh Winder, who has yet to allow an earned run. A rookie that the Astros have never seen before, Winder’s first two career starts have seen him allow only five hits in 12 IP. Minnesota is only allowing 2.8 rpg at home thus far and opponents are batting just .200. It’s not like Houston has been scoring a ton during its win streak; only once have they topped five runs and they’ve scored three or less in 6 of their L10 games. Look for a low-scoring battle here. 9* Under Astros/Twins

9* Over Mets/Nationals (1:05 ET): After going Under each of their L3 head to head meetings, the Mets & Nationals finally combined to go Over last night. The final score was 8-3 (Nats won) and interestingly enough all 11 runs were scored in the first two innings. We may not get that kind of explosive start at the plate this afternoon, but there are two struggling starters on the mound and by the end of the game, I expect the Over to hit again. 

Taijuan Walker is the Mets starter and he comes in with a 4.91 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. What is crazy is that all three starts have come against the Phillies! Walker was really roughed up his last time out, allowing seven runs (six earned) in just four innings of work. He allowed two home runs as well. Walker had previously allowed no runs this year, but those first two starts vs. the Phillies had spanned only seven innings. I know the Washington lineup had struggled at home so far, but yesterday was a positive sign and they are hitting righties well in the month of May. Walker has a 5.24 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Nats. The Mets’ bullpen is taxed after heavy usage yesterday (starter Megill lasted only 1 ⅓ innings. 

The Mets need a win today to avoid what would be their first series loss of 2022. Yesterday’s defeat marked just the third time they lost a game by 5+ runs. The offense should do better here against Joan Adon, who has really struggled in his six starts this year. Adon has a 6.99 ERA and 1.659 WHIP this season and he’s 0-3 w/ a 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 starts. The Mets had their chances to score after the 1st inning yday, but went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven runners on base. Adon’s 1st start of 2022 came against the Mets and he allowed four runs in 4 ⅓ innings. 9* Over Mets/Nationals

10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (9:30 ET): So Grizzlies’ star point guard Ja Morant has a bone bruise and a playoff return is looking unlikely. That’s basically a “death knell” for a Memphis team already facing elimination Weds night. Without Morant, the Grizz turned in a “game” effort in Game 4 @ Golden State, but came up three points shy (101-98) and are now facing a 3-1 series deficit. The Warriors were probably already the better team (been favored in every game) even with a healthy Morant available. Certainly, the expectation will be for the Dubs to close things out here. But I think the better play is the Over.

You may recall that I last played the Over in this series back in Game 1. It hit rather easily, going Over despite the number being bet up several points. Oddsmakers set the O/U line way too low for that series opener and the public made them pay. But they evidently learned their lesson as the O/U line opened 227.5 for Game 2. Two of the last three games have stayed Under, including Game 4 (when I had the Under). I didn’t think the oddsmakers adjusted enough for Morant’s absence in Game 4, but now it seems as if we’ve got an overcorrection as this will be the lowest O/U for any game in the series. 

The last game stayed way Under (by 23 points) as both teams struggled from three-point range. It was a combined 18 of 72 (25%). From the start, it was obvious the game was going to stay Under. Only 79 total points were scored in the 1H and 131 through three quarters. Given Golden State shot 63.1% overall in the previous game and 53% from three-point range, it was obvious they would regress Monday, but along those same lines, we should see vast improvement for Game 5. Memphis is due to shoot the ball better as well as I don’t expect them to go down without a fight, at home. 10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well this series has certainly taken a nasty turn, with hard fouls and injuries defining the last two games. In Game 2, it was the Grizzlies’ Dillon Brooks’ hard foul on the Warriors’ Gary Payton II (out indefinitely) taking two players out of the Game 3 proceedings (Brooks was suspended). Brooks will return for Game 4, but unfortunately for Memphis, Ja Morant is now questionable after the Warriors’ Jordan Poole appeared to grab his knee, re-injuring it. Whether or not Morant ends up playing on Monday, I like the Under here.

Certainly, Golden State will not be replicating its Game 3 shooting, which had them at a blistering 63.1% overall and 53.1% from three-point range. If you recall from my Game 3 analysis, I called for the Warriors to regain their shooting touch after they shot a poor 42.1% overall in the Game 2 loss, which included 7 of 38 from three, a franchise record for futility. But even I, as someone holding a ticket on the Dubs minus the points in Game 3, did not expect what we ended up getting. The team finished with 142 points and made 17 threes. Their overall and “true” shooting percentage for the game were both the second highest in NBA Playoff history.

According to his head coach Taylor Jenkins, there’s “probably a really good chance” that Morant doesn’t play in Game 4. That would obviously be a significant loss for Memphis offensively. Morant was Top 10 in points per game in the regular season and was also leading the league in assists per game here in the playoffs. Even if he does somehow manage to play, Morant clearly will not be the same. With the Grizzlies likely without their best player (and one of the top scorers in the league) and the Warriors’ shooting certain to regress, I think the Under is a pretty easy call here in Game 4. These were two of the top four teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season (GSW #1) and the Dubs allow only 103.4 PPG at home.  8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (7:30 ET): My NBA Playoff record has been pretty good thus far, but admittedly it would be even better if not for some stubbornness when it comes to choosing the Over in this particular series. It’s been flawed logic (to this point) waiting for the “roulette wheel to come up red” as all seven Bucks’ games this postseason have stayed Under. Oddsmakers have been scrambling to adjust as we’ve gone from a closing O/U line of 230.5 for Game 1 of the first round series (vs. Chicago) to a closing O/U line of 212 for the last game of this series. With every game, the O/U line has dropped. 

 My thought process, flawed as it has been, is that we’re getting value with the O/U line decreasing so much. As a reminder, Milwaukee led the Eastern Conference in scoring (115.5 PPG) during the regular season. But it has been their incredible DEFENSIVE efficiency rating (96.1) that has carried them throughout the playoffs. Consider that the #2 team (Miami) has a postseason defensive efficiency rating of 103.0. Boston isn’t too shabby defensively in its own right, ranking third in postseason defensive efficiency rating and second in the regular season. But, interestingly enough, this is the first time in the series we’ve seen a clear influx of early money coming in on the Over. 

That’s easy to understand. Whereas Boston shot horribly in Game 1 (33.3% overall) and Milwaukee shot horribly in Game 2 (3 of 18 from three-point range), BOTH teams were bad from the floor in Game 3. The Celtics were back down to 36.8% overall while the Bucks weren’t much better (at 40.4%). The teams combined to shoot 18 of 67 (26.8%) from behind the arc. I expect improvement across the board in the shooting department - from both teams - here in Game 4. Scoring has jumped in every game, from 190 in Game 1 to 195 in Game 2 to 204 in Game 3. Another jump comes here and we FINALLY cash that elusive Over ticket on Milwaukee. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

10* Under Suns/Mavericks (3:30 ET): Phoenix probably cannot continue to shoot as well from three-point range as they have so far in this series (45.6%), especially considering they are up against a Dallas team that only allows 101.3 PPG at home this season. Sure enough, the Mavs held the Suns to only 94 points in Game 3, picking up their first win of the series. I’m expecting another strong effort from the home team at the defensive end of the floor today, considering the most points they’ve allowed in any of their four home playoff games so far is 104.

Yet the Mavs have scored 103 or less themselves in more than half of their own postseason games. It’s just 210.2 total PPG scored in Mavs’ playoff games. They held Utah, who was tied for the most efficient offense in the regular season, below 100 PPG. Phoenix shot the lights out in Games 1 & 2 (particularly Gm 2), but then here in Dallas, the Mavs returned to their stingy ways. The Suns were still 13 of 28 from three-point range, but made far less shots overall compared to the first two games. 

I should also point out how, in the regular season, Dallas played at the slowest tempo in the league. Game 3 was Phoenix’s lowest-scoring effort of the season, but something else that deserves to be pointed out is how they are 7-1 Under this season after being held below 100 points in the previous game. It’s not just three-point regression that should be in store for the Suns. They are shooting 52.6% overall in the playoffs, up from 48.8% for the season. The Under is 30-14 in all Dallas’ home games this season. 10* Under Suns/Mavericks

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (3:30 ET): This series heads back to Milwaukee with the teams tied 1-1. Both picked up their respective wins in fairly dominant fashion. The Bucks rolled in Game 1, 101-89, snapping a 9-game ATS losing streak to the Celtics. As expected both teams shot better overall in Game 2 (46.6% for Milwaukee, 47.5% for Boston), but the Bucks were doomed by going 3 of 18 from three-point range (16.7%). Boston made more threes (20) than Milwaukee even attempted and the incredible +51 point edge the Celtics enjoyed from beyond the arc essentially guaranteed victory. The final score was 109-86.

The Under is now 7-0 in Milwaukee playoff games. Oddsmakers continue to drop the total, which was 230.5 for Game 1 of their first round series (vs. Chicago), if you can believe that. We’re now down to 212.5 (as of press time). Barring some kind of massive wave of Over money on this game (which I do not anticipate), this will be the eighth straight Bucks’ game where the O/U line is lower than the previous one. Considering they were the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, I feel the Over is now inevitable. I know I’ve been saying that for awhile now, but this is poised to be the lowest O/U line for any Bucks’ game since before X-Mas!

Bucks’ games still average 225.6 points this season, even with the run of postseason Unders. Celtics’ games average 215.9, so this number is below that. I know both teams are capable of playing great defense, but there is simply no way Milwaukee isn’t going to see a dramatic increase in three-point shooting from Game 2, similar to what we saw with Boston in Game 2 after they shot a woeful 33.3% overall in Game 1. The Celtics have made 38 three-pointers in the first two games. The teams will have had three days off between games when they take the court Saturday. Boston games have averaged 226 PPG in that situation this year while Milwaukee games have averaged 221.1. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians (6:10 ET): Only Cincinnati (with its horrible pitching) has seen more games go Over this season than has Cleveland, who split a doubleheader here at home with San Diego yesterday. Both games were decided by one run, the first being a 5-4 loss while second being a 6-5 come from behind win. It’s not a great spot for the Guardians here as they face an immediate turnaround with the Blue Jays coming to town. But the starting pitcher Toronto is sending out, Jose Berrios, has one of the more fortunate 5-0 team start records in recent memory as his ERA and WHIP are 4.13 and 1.583. 

Honestly, if it weren’t for the situation of being off a doubleheader and having Aaron Civale starting tonight, I would have considered Cleveland at plus money in this series opener. But Civale has been horrific to this point with a 10.68 ERA and 1.954 WHIP after four outings. It’s actually rather shocking that the team has won twice with him on the mound. One of those was last time out, 9-8 over Oakland. For the second straight start, Civale gave up six runs in four innings or less. He has yet to pitch longer than four innings in any start and opponents are batting a blistering .349 against him. 

With the expectation that both starting pitchers are going to struggle in this matchup, I’m taking the Over. Not surprisingly, all four Civale starts this season have gone Over. Berrios’ numbers are somewhat skewed by his first start (lasted only one-third of an inning and gave up four runs), but he’s very lucky to have the 5-0 TSR and certainly should have allowed more runs to this point. Toronto was thought to have one of the better offenses coming into 2022, but surprisingly Cleveland is scoring more than them so far. The Over is 4-0 the L4 Guardians’ home games where they have been the ‘dog. 8* Over Blue Jays/Guardians

10* Under Reds/Brewers (1:40 ET): The Cincinnati Reds are setting baseball back to the 1890s. Last night’s horrific 18-4 defeat (at the hands of Milwaukee) leaves them at 3-21 on the year with a -82 run differential. They’ve lost eight straight and 19 of 20. This is the unquestioned worst team in all of baseball this year. Unfortunately for the Reds, Thursday afternoon has them again facing the Brewers, who have been cleaning up against the dregs of the NL Central as of late. But I look for today’s game to be a lot lower scoring than yesterday and most recent Reds’ games. Take the Under here. 

If you’ve been paying any attention to baseball this season, then you know there were an abundance of Unders early on. Only two teams have gone Over in more than 55% of their games and leading the charge is Cincinnati at 14-9-1. Seven of their last eight games have seen nine or more total runs scored. But I think this one is going to be different. Part of that is the Reds are dead last in the National League at 3.1 runs per game. They are even worse on the road where they are scoring just 2.7 rpg with a collective .186 average. Figuring that Milwaukee wins again here, they will only have to come up to bat eight times in this game. 

Cincinnati’s woeful offensive numbers figure not to get any better after today as they’ll be facing Adrian Houser, who is one of several Milwaukee starters off to a strong start in 2022. Houser has been especially dominant in his two previous home starts (0.77 ERA, 1.028 WHIP), allowing just one run in 11 ⅔ IP. Brewers’ pitching has allowed only 14 runs to score over the L7 games. Now while the Brew Crew offense did explode for 18 runs last night, such a performance is obviously atypical, especially from them. The team is still hitting only .228 on the year. Reds’ starter Hunter Greene is a bit better than his numbers show. 10* Under Reds/Brewers

8* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:35 ET): I had thought the Halos were going to come in and take Tuesday’s series opener, but as it turns out, that assessment was a “day early.” After losing 4-0 on Tuesday, Los Angeles bounced back with a 10-5 win last night. But the number of runs scored in Wednesday’s game was a little bit misleading. The Angels got 10 runs off just eight hits and the game went to extra innings. It was 4-4 at the end of nine, but the visitors quickly put things to bed with two HRs in the 10th. Let’s not forget LA had been shutout in three of its previous four games. I like the Under this afternoon. 

A major reason I like the Under here is the starting pitching matchup. Shohei Ohtani will go for the Angels, and aside from one bad start (when I faded him 4/14 vs. Texas), he’s been great. You’re talking a 30-5 KW ratio and he’s allowed just two runs and six hits total in his L2 starts. Ohtani was especially dominant when he last started on the road, holding Houston to just one hit over six scoreless innings. He also had 12 strikeouts that day. Ohtani wasn’t quite as dominant last week vs. Cleveland, but still allowed only two runs and five hits. Here he should have little trouble with a Boston lineup that is scoring just 3.3 rpg vs. right-handed starters. 

Prior to two of their last three games going Over (I cashed the Over in a 9-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday), the Red Sox had seen the Under go 10-1-1 over a 12-game stretch. They will send veteran southpaw Rich Hill to the bump today. Hill can’t be counted on to go very long, but he has tossed four scoreless in each of his L2 outings. Last time out, he allowed just one hit and didn’t walk anyone either. Hill has allowed only two home runs this season and he’s not being hit particularly hard. The Boston bullpen is solid, which is key as well. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times the Angels scored 5+ runs their previous game. 8* Under Angels/Red Sox

8* Over 76ers/Heat (7:35 ET):  Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here.

Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. Both teams figure to improve from distance tonight as they shoot 36.5% and 37.6% from behind the arc, respectively. Miami was in fact the league’s best three-point shooting team, percentage-wise in the regular season. Philadelphia was seventh. Going a combined 15 of 70 from deep is highly uncharacteristic for these two teams. 

For the Heat, who are still missing Kyle Lowry, I expect Jimmy Butler to play better than he did in Game 1 where he finished with only 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting. He typically follows a subpar game with a good one. Tyler Herro stepped in Game 1 for Miami, outscoring Philly’s bench by himself. With Lowry still out, Herro figures to continue to put up nice numbers. Speaking of the Philly bench, they’ve got to be better than 1 of 12 from three-point range. Yes, six straight Heat games have gone Under, but this looks to be the fourth one in a row where the oddsmakers have dropped the total. Given the likelihood of improved shooting (from both sides) in this game, the value is on the Over. 8* Over 76ers/Heat

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:00 ET): Think we’ll see better shooting here than we did in Game 1? Boston was a paltry 33.3% from the field in their series opening loss, scoring just 89 points despite making 18 threes. Their three-point shooting was actually quite decent, 36% to be exact, but somehow (at home) the C’s were 10 of 34 inside the arc on Sunday. That’s truly incredible. I know that Milwaukee has really stepped it up defensively in the postseason, but there’s just no way we don’t get improved shooting (and more points) from the home team in Game 2. The Bucks only shot 41.1% overall in Game 1 and they should improve in that regard as well tonight.

All six Bucks’ playoff games have now gone Under. Oddsmakers are chasing as Game 1 of the Bucks-Bulls’ first round series had a closing total of 230.5. Now the O/U line for this game opened 15.5 points lower. Milwaukee was the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, which is something else to consider. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple double in Game 1 (24-13-12) while Jrue Holiday stepped it up with 25 points and nine rebounds. Even without Khris Middleton, I expect the Bucks to score more than they did in Game 1. Especially if Boston is w/o Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (questionable).

On the Celtics side, you’ve got to expect Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will improve upon their collective 10 of 31 shooting from Game 1. For the season, that duo combined to average 48.2 PPG. The theme of this play is very much “improvement,” in case you couldn’t tell. Boston averaged 113.5 PPG in Round 1. Milwaukee scored at least 110 in each of its last four first round games. I’ll close by repeating something I said in the Game 1 analysis: the four regular season meetings between these teams all saw at least 220 total points scored. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Mavs/Suns (10:00 ET): The Mavs-Jazz series was pretty low-scoring with the two teams combining for just 203.7 points per game. But now Luka Doncic is ready to play a full series for the Mavs and they will be facing a Phoenix team that was top five in both scoring and offensive efficiency during the regular season. For the Suns, Devin Booker returned earlier than expected and they were able to close out the Pelicans in Game 6, scoring a series high 115 points. Only one time in the first round did the Suns fail to score 110. Their season average at home is 115.2 and if they hit that tonight, this looks like an easy Over. 

Now Dallas did just do a great job defensively against Utah, who also was one of the top offensive teams in the regular season. But the Suns aren’t as inept as the Jazz. They’ve got Chris Paul, who had a monster first round with 22.3 points and 11.3 assists per game. Note that in the close out game vs. New Orleans, Booker scored only 13 points and came off the bench. He’s now had several days off to further get over his hamstring issue and will almost certainly give the team more than he did in that last game. The Suns are also 20-8 Over following a SU win. 

Look for Dallas to attempt a lot of threes in this series as they had the highest 3pt rate in the first round and connected at 37%. Doncic, the NBA’s third leading scorer, played in only one of the three regular season meetings vs. Phoenix (Mavs lost all of them). That one time he played, the Mavs were up nine in the 4Q and that was with Doncic shooting just 9 of 23 for the game. All three regular season meetings also took place before the Mavs traded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. While he had a relatively poor first round series, Dinwiddie can easily exceed his 15.3 PPG average vs. Utah here. That would mean Jalen Brunson would not have to match his 27.8 PPG 1st round average. Bottom line there’s a lot of scoring options for both teams. 10* Over Mavs/Suns

8* Over Brentford/Manchester United (3:00 ET): I don’t think there’s any denying that Brentford is in much better form right now compared to their counterparts in Old Trafford. The Bees have picked up points in six of the last seven fixtures, winning five of them. They played to a goalless draw with Tottenham last week, but don’t let this side’s current position in the table (14th) fool you. Brentford is actually sixth in the league in expected points (xPts), ahead of Manchester United! It seems reasonable to expect the Bees to continue their unbeaten streak in Monday’s fixture, but I’m instead looking at the Over here. 

Manchester United has not won since it was announced Erik ten Hag would replace interim boss Ralph Rangnick this summer. The Red Devils lost 3-1 to Arsenal last weekend and followed that with a 1-1 draw against Chelsea midweek, thanks to the heroics of Cristiano Ronaldo. But United now faces the prospect of missing Europe altogether next season after failing to win six of their last seven fixtures. The lone win came against last place Norwich City. They currently sit sixth in the table. They’ll probably end up in the Europa or Europa Conference League, but that is far from settled now. 

This is Man U’s final home game, so I can’t see them rolling over. They beat Brentford 3-1 in the reverse fixture, although the Bees finished ahead on expected goals. I know the 0-0 draw with Tottenham may not inspire a lot of confidence in Brentford’s scoring ability, but they have been at 1.32 xG or better in seven straight matches. Plus Man U’s defense has gotten pretty bad down the stretch.and they are now in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed. But the one shining light for United is they have scored eight goals in their last four home matches. Look for this one to sneak Over. 8* Over Brentford/Manchester United

9* Under Phillies/Mets (7:05 ET): There’s been a scarcity of runs in this series with the Phillies getting no-hit on Friday, but then also winning 4-1 on Saturday. That latter result was great for me as I had the road team as my 10* Game of the Month, the capper on a stupendous month overall. Now I look to start May by playing the total and I don’t know how you can’t look to the Under here. Max Scherzer is going tonight for the Mets and he’s not only 3-0 in his four starts (4-0 TSR), but has a 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. At home this season, the Mets are allowing just 2.4 runs per game and a .161 batting average. 

Scherzer is coming off back to back dominant performances where he went seven innings (both times) and allowed just one run on three hits combined. He had 20 strikeouts as well. Those were wins over the Giants and Cardinals. Scherzer has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this year and the lone HR surrendered came in his first start. It’s difficult for me to see the Phillies, who have collected just 10 hits over the L3 games, doing much against Scherzer as he has not lost in his last 23 starts! In 25 career starts vs. the Phillies, Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.989 WHIP. He has 201 strikeouts in 158 ⅓ innings. 

Like the Phils, the Mets have scored a total of just four runs in this series. While last night’s result was disappointing for them, especially coming off the no-hitter Friday, there’s no need to sweat as the Mets still have the highest win percentage in the National League. Tonight, they are facing Zach Eflin, who has somewhat struggled so far, but he was much better his last time out when he gave up just one run on two hits against Colorado. Eflin’s road numbers are skewed by the fact he also faced the Rockies at Coors Field. Eflin had another start this year where he didn’t allow any runs in four innings of work. Look for this to be a pitchers’ duel on Sunday night. 9* Under Phillies/Mets

8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (3:30 ET): Memphis’ series vs. Minnesota was lower scoring than anticipated with four of the six games going Under. But there was still an average of 223.9 points per game scored between the two teams. Quite frankly, I thought the Grizzlies were a bit fortunate to advance - at least in six games - as they trailed by double digits (in the fourth quarter!) in three of their four wins. Now they are set to face a Golden State team that is looking like it should be considered the favorite to come out of the West. The Warriors averaged 118 PPG in eliminating the Nuggets in five games. 

I like Game 1 of this series to go Over the total. These were the two highest scoring teams in the first round, combining to average 232.7 PPG. Golden State shot 51.5% overall from the field and 42.2% from three-point range. I think the fact Memphis gave up only 109 PPG to Minnesota was a bit fortunate as the T’wolves would constantly fall apart late. Over the L5 games of the series, the T’wolves would average less than 21 PPG in the 4Q. The Warriors simply will not melt down like that. Go ahead and throw out that 28-point loss the Dubs had here in Memphis back in March. Curry, Thompson and Green all didn’t play. With its “death lineup” now in full force, Golden State is as strong as it has been all year. 

No player has hit more threes in the playoffs so far than has Memphis’ Desmond Bane (27). While Golden State has an excellent defensive efficiency rating, it should be pointed out that they allowed 113 and 126 points in the two road games vs. Denver. Only Game 5 of that series stayed Under. This would be the lowest total for either team so far in the playoffs. The Over is 11-1 in Memphis’ last 12 playoff games as an underdog. We’re going to see a lot of three-point attempts in this series. Golden State was third in 3PA during the regular seasons while Memphis averaged 34.5 3PA per game vs. the Warriors in the four reg season matchups. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

8* Over Red Sox/Orioles (1:05 ET): At long last, Baltimore snapped its losing streak (five straight) last night with a 2-1 win in 10 innings. They scored the game winning run on a throwing error, capping a comeback after being held hitless for the first six innings. The O’s didn’t score until the eighth while the Red Sox didn’t score after the first! There’s been very little offense in the series as the Red Sox won Friday’s opener by a score of 3-1. The Under is now 10-1-1 in Boston’s L12 games and 5-0 the L5 times they’ve faced Baltimore. But because of the starting pitching matchup, I’m on the Over today. 

Let’s start with Nick Pivetta, who Boston will send to the mound. The right-handed has an 0-4 team start record to this point and he deserves it, considering an 8.26 ERA and 1.958 WHIP. It’s been three straight starts where Pivetta failed to last five innings and Red Sox opponents ended up scoring 6+ runs in all three contests. Last time out, Pivetta surrendered only a pair of runs (on three hits) in 4 ⅔ innings. But his control issues continued with four walks, upping his season total to 13. Going back to last season, Pivetta is 0-6 over his L12 starts with a 6.61 ERA. I think even Baltimore’s lineup can get to him. 

The Baltimore bats better wake up here, because with Jordan Lyles pitching, the O’s figure to give up some runs themselves. Lyles has a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, not as bad as Pivetta, but he’s also notorious for allowing home runs. Last season saw Lyles lead the American League with 38 HRs allowed. He gave up three in his last start, a 12-8 loss to the Yankees, and it certainly doesn’t help that Lyles has a 6.10 ERA in four career starts vs. Boston. The last two games may inspire little confidence in the two lineups, but today’s starting pitching matchup all but ensures we’ll be seeing a slugfest. 8* Red Sox/Orioles

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (1:00 ET): This series pits the reigning NBA Champs (Milwaukee) against the team I feel is the favorite to come out of the East this year (Boston). By virtue of finishing second in the conference standings, the Celtics have the home court advantage. They made quick work of Brooklyn in Round 1, shockingly sweeping the Nets in what was expected to be a competitive series. As for the Bucks, they were widely expected to eliminate the Bulls and did so in five games. The two teams are obviously now anticipating a much more competitive series here in the conference semifinals. 

All five games in the Bucks-Bulls series stayed Under the total. The series started with a Game 1 total of 230.5 and steadily declined down to 217.5 for Game 5. Milwaukee held Chicago to 95.2 PPG on 40.4% shooting, but they won’t be able to do that against Boston, who averaged 113.5 PPG on 49.1% shooting in the first round. The Bucks averaged 109.8 PPG on 47.1% shooting. That PPG average was below what they averaged for the season (115.2), which led the Eastern Conference. This is going to be a higher scoring series.

These teams met four times in the regular season. All four games saw at least 220 total points scored. The last two meetings had O/U lines of 231.5 and 227.5. Yes, scoring does go down in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting a solid value on the Game 1 total. Only one of the four Celtics-Nets games had less than 221 total points scored. Milwaukee scored 110 or more in each of the last four games vs. Chicago. I think that it’s quite reasonable to expect both teams to score 110 in this game. They combine to average 227 PPG for the year. The Over is 8-1 the L9 meetings, only one of which had a lower O/U line than what we are presented with here. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

8* Under Padres/Pirates (6:35 ET): San Diego is coming off a series in Cincinnati where all three games managed to go Over the total. The Padres averaged a healthy eight runs per game versus the Reds and the favorable schedule continues this weekend with a visit to Pittsburgh. I think you can probably make a case that the Pirates and Reds are the two worst teams in MLB right now (Nationals are pretty bad as well). Playing in the tough NL West (Dodgers & Giants both off to strong starts), San Diego needs to continue to rack up victories at the expense of the league’s bottom feeders. 

But I think the better value tonight is on the Under. Yu Darvish will get the starting nod for the Padres here and he’s been outstanding in three of his four starts. There was the one outlier against the Giants that we’ll pretend never happened, but the other three starts have seen Darvish allow a total of just five hits in 18 ⅔ IP and only one run to score. His last two starts came against the Dodgers and Braves, both of whom obviously field stronger lineups than the Pirates, who have scored only three runs in their last two games. In six of the L10 games, Pittsburgh has been held to two runs or fewer. They are hitting .199 over the L7 games. 

The question now becomes - can Pittsburgh pitching keep San Diego hitting in check? Well, I think the Padres are due to regress a bit at the plate, considering they are bottom five in the NL in both expected batting average and expected slugging. The task falls on Zach Thompson, who has admittedly not been good in his L2 starts, but he was charged with five unearned runs his last time out. His ERA of 10.80 is obviously only going to get better. San Diego is only hitting .229 the L7 games, so it’s been lucky to average 5.0 rpg over the same stretch. 8* Under Padres/Pirates

8* Under Suns/Pelicans (7:30 ET): Still without Devin Booker, top seed Phoenix looks to close out New Orleans on Thursday. The Suns got a career playoff-high 31 points from Mikal Bridges in the Game 5 victory, which snapped a three-game run for the Over in the series. The final score was 112-97 and obviously had as much to do with what the Suns accomplished at the defensive end. They held CJ McCollum, the Pelicans’ leading scorer, to just 7 of 22 shooting. With Bridges highly unlikely to match his production from Tuesday, look for Game 6 to stay Under as well. 

Chris Paul also had a nice bounce back in Game 5, scoring 22 points and dishing out 11 assists. Only Magic Johnson and LeBron James have more 20-10 (points-assists) games in NBA playoff history than Paul’s 31. But he had just four points the last time the teams played in New Orleans and the team finished with just 103. Phoenix was quite dreadful from three-point range in the two games here, making only 11 of 53 attempts. They really miss Booker in that regard. 

Now there are reports that Booker may return tonight. But I wouldn’t expect him to be a dominant player in his first game back. With Paul and Bridges also likely to regress, that means less points than usual from Phoenix, who is 7-3 Under its L10 games. New Orleans might be slightly better on offense than they were in Game 5, but I’m also not expecting them to get to the free throw line as much. The L2 games have seen them get 77 attempts. 8* Under Suns/Pelicans

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (7:30 ET): Of all the first round series, East or West, this is the one where I was most confident in who the winner would be. Defending champion Milwaukee came in as huge favorites and though they dropped Game 2 here at home (114-110), they made short work of the Bulls in Chicago, winning the two games by a combined 54 points. That was even without Khris Middleton, who remains out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury in Game 2. The odds are high that the Bucks finish this series Wednesday night at home and honestly I’m a little leery of laying this many points. But I do see value on the Game 5 total. 

The previous four games have all stayed Under. But we’re now a long way from the Game 1 total, which closed at 230.5. While Chicago has been held to 95 points or less in each of its three losses, I do see them scoring more here with the season hanging in the balance. Game 4 just barely stayed Under and that was with the Bulls shooting just 38.9% overall and 9 of 36 from behind the arc. DeRozan, Vucevic & LaVine were a combined 3 of 17 from downtown. I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to improve upon those percentages here tonight. They are 13-5 Over this season after being held to 100 or less this season. 

But the Bulls’ problem is going to be on the defensive end. Milwaukee has scored 110 or more in three straight, but Game 4 marked the first time they exceeded their season average of 115.2 PPG (which led the Eastern Conference). They’ve made 46 threes over the L3 games and shot 51% from long range in Game 4. Alex Caruso left the last game with a concussion and is questionable for Game 5. Back in the regular season, we saw how bad the Bulls were defensively when both Caruso and Lonzo Ball (season over) were out. The Bucks are 20-8 Over L28 as home favorites. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks

analysis 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): In the first semifinal of this year’s Champions League, we’ve got the team that will win La Liga (Real Madrid) against the current leaders of the Premier League (Manchester City). It should be a good one. In the quarterfinals, Man City ousted last year’s La Liga Champions (Atletico Madrid), needing just a single goal to do so. It will certainly take more than that to defeat this year’s top team from the Spanish flight as Real Madrid comes in having delivered thrilling come from behind victories over PSG and Chelsea here in the knockout stage. 

Man City is undefeated here at the Etihad in Champions League play, going all the way back to September of 2018. So the EPL leaders will be confident heading into this first leg. However, they were not all that impressive against Atletico and had to survive a second half onslaught in the second leg just to advance. The good news is that the Citizens have scored 13 goals in their five home matches so far in this tournament. I’m expecting a lot more offense from them than what we saw in the quarterfinals. In three fixtures since, they’ve found the back of the net a total of 10 times, including a 5-1 win over Watford this past weekend.

Real Madrid had to come from behind in the second leg vs. PSG to advance out of the Round of 16, then survived an early Chelsea barrage in the second leg of the quarterfinals. Los Blancos were down on aggregate in both ties and honestly are probably lucky to be here. However, with the exception of the 4-0 thumping they took from Barcelona, Real has scored multiple goals in every match since the start of March. They put three on the board last Wednesday vs. Osasuna and should have had more, but missed a pair of penalties. Man City’s backline is dealing with multiple absences heading into this one and Real’s Karim Benzema has seven goals in the last four UCL matches. 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City

10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace (3:00 ET): Crystal Palace has been held without a goal in each of its last two fixtures, one of those in the FA Cup (2-0 semifinal loss to Chelsea) and then a 1-0 loss to Newcastle here in the Premier League last week. The Eagles ought to be a lot higher in the EPL table; at least based on their YTD goal differential being better than the five teams directly ahead of them and the fact they are ninth in xPts (expected points). While I’m not confident enough in CP to bet them to win today, I do certainly anticipate they’ll break their scoreless streak in this fixture. 

Leeds United is still fighting to fend off relegation, though another win and you’ve got to think they’re probably safe for next season. Unlike Crystal Palace (+2 GD), Leeds has not been particularly impressive in several underlying metrics (they have the EPL’s third worst GD), so I can’t say that they’re unfortunate to be in the position they are currently in. Fighting for survival has brought improved form, however. The Whites are unbeaten in their last four competitions and just put three goals on the board last week in a clean sheet victory over hapless Watford. They’ve scored nine goals in the four-match unbeaten run, scoring 2+ in three of the fixtures. 

Crystal Palace is definitely a stronger side here at Selhurst Park where they haven’t conceded a single goal in the L3 matches. They’ve also scored 25 goals in their 16 matches here this season. The Eagles are the strongest attacking team that Leeds will have faced in some time. Expect goals here as Leeds’ so- called “defensive improvement” has a lot to do with whom they’ve faced recently, namely four of the other bottom seven sides, including the bottom two. 10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace

10* Over Wolves/Burnley (9:00 AM ET): In all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, there isn’t a side that has been more fortunate when it comes to conceding goals this season than Wolverhampton. The Wolves have conceded only 28 times, fourth fewest in the Premier League. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 44.36, which would rank 10th. To put that kind of overachieving in its proper perspective, there are only two other sides in the “Big 4” to have a positive difference of more than nine between their xGA and actual goals allowed. (Those would be Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld of the Bundesliga). 

The Wolves are still chasing down a spot in the Europa Conference League. They are three points behind West Ham, but have a match in hand as a result of last week’s fixture vs. Man City getting postponed (because Man City was competing in the FA Cup). A 1-0 loss to Newcastle did the Wolves no favors two weeks ago. But before that, they’d found the back of the net twice against both Aston Villa and Leeds United. Though Burnley isn’t even close to having the worst defensive record in the EPL, you’ve got to like Wolverhampton’s chances of getting on the scoresheet in this one as Burnley had conceded a goal in eight straight matches prior to last week’s 2-0 clean sheet over Southampton. 

That win inched Burnley closer to safety as they desperately try to escape the relegation zone. They’ll enter Sunday 18th in the table, one point behind Everton, who must face Liverpool today. So an opportunity is there for the Clarets to move up. Given what I said earlier about Wolverhampton, I expect Burnley will get on the scoresheet here. Feeling that both sides will score in this fixture makes the Over an obvious call. 10* Over Wolves/Burnley

10* Over Mavs/Jazz (4:30 ET): With the potential for Luka Doncic’s return on Saturday, I’m surprised this total isn’t higher. Both Games 2 and 3 went Over the total, the latter by a significant margin (36.5 points!) Now Utah shot 56.5% in Game 3 (and still lost!), a clip we probably can’t expect them to match this afternoon. But I do expect the host Jazz to be more efficient from three-point range where they were just 9 of 28 on Thursday. This is a team that averages 15 made threes per game at home where they average 116.8 PPG. Not only is Utah the league’s third highest scoring home team, don’t forget they finished the regular season tied for the league lead (with Atlanta) in offensive efficiency.

I had Dallas plus the points in Game 3 and the cover was never really in doubt as they raced out to a 68-51 halftime lead. Once again, Jalen Brunson led the way, this time with 31 points. That followed a career-high 41 points in Game 2. He’s averaging 32 PPG for the series, clearly filling the void left by Doncic’s absence. While I don’t think the Mavs will score 126 again, even if Doncic returns, hitting their season average of 108.1 PPG is certainly realistic and probably all that we need. The Mavs are 6-2 Over their last 8 games.

Utah is on a 16-5 Over run in playoff action the last three seasons, including 12-3 in the first round. They are 3-0 to the Over when trailing in a series. Today is certainly shaping up to be a “must-win” for the Jazz as a loss means they head back to Dallas down three games to one. Things were looking up when they temporarily “stole” home court advantage by winning Game 1, but B2B outright losses have changed things in a hurry. Jazz home games have averaged 224.2 points this season. So, once again, I say this number looks low. Both teams had a 40-point quarter on Thursday. 10* Over Mavs/Jazz

10* Under Suns/Pelicans (9:30 ET): Both of last year’s NBA Finalists (Bucks & Suns) have had a trying 48 hours, not only losing Game 2 of their respective series, but also losing a key player in the process. For Phoenix, that key player is Devin Booker, who has a “Grade 1” hamstring injury. Booker leads his team with 26.8 points per game, so to say his injury is significant is no understatement. Now the Suns may very well have enough talent on hand to still get by the 8th seeded Pelicans, but expect Game 3 of this series to be low-scoring, along the lines of Game 1. Take the Under here. 

Game 2 was a wild affair with New Orleans coming from behind to win 125-114 as 9.5-point underdogs. Now Phoenix was behind, by three points, when Booker left the game. But considering Booker poured in 31 points himself in the first half, then the Suns could only manage 53 as a team in the entire second half, his absence was absolutely felt. Honestly, the bigger issue for the top seed may have been their transition defense. "That was probably, for us, the worst we have ever looked in transition since I have been here," coach Monty Williams said. "For that to happen in a playoff game was a bit unsettling for everybody. 

Now I do not expect New Orleans to shoot 54.8% from the field again like they did in Game 2. They were also 17 of 30 from three-point range, an absurd 56.7%. There’s no way they are matching those numbers tonight, even though the game is at home. Brandon Ingram was 13 of 21 shooting overall. He was perfect on threes and finished with 37-11-9. Can’t see him replicating that. Then you have the fact the Suns can’t possibly replace Booker’s production as he hit seven threes in the first half alone Wednesday. The Suns are 8-1 Under following a double digit loss this season. 10* Under Suns/Pelicans

9* Under Bucks/Bulls (8:30 ET): This is my first foray into this series, which has taken a bit of a dramatic turn in the last 48 hours. Of all the first round series in the Eastern Conference, this was the one where projecting a winner seemed to be the most obvious (and that was reaffirmed by the odds), however, not only did Milwaukee lose Game 2 at home Weds night (114-110 as a 10-point favorite), but they are now going to be without Khris Middleton for at least two weeks, which is a huge loss. Both games in Milwaukee did stay Under and now things move to Chicago. I think the Under is likely to hit again. 

Middleton is the Bucks’ second leading scorer this season (20.1 PPG), obviously trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo. He had averaged just 14.5 points in the first two games of this series, but is obviously going to be missed moving forward. Middleton wasn’t the only Bucks player to leave Game 2 with an injury; Bobby Portis had to exit with an eye injury, though it’s expected he will play tonight. So far, the Bucks have averaged just 101.5 PPG in this series (on 43.1% shooting), well below their regular season average. It doesn’t help that they are only shooting 65% from the free throw line. 

Chicago’s “big three” of DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine combined to shoot 21 of 71 (29.6%) in Game 1, but then rebounded to 33 of 62 (53.2%) in Game 2, led by DeRozan’s 41 points. Expect them to finish somewhere “in the middle” for Game 3. I can’t see the Bulls scoring 63 points in the first half again, like they did Wednesday. Nor do I see them shooting 48% from three-point range again. All season long, Bulls’ division games have been lower scoring than non-division games, averaging just 208 PPG. The Under is 14-4 in division games. Before the Game 2 win, they’d faced Milwaukee five times (lost all five) and averaged just 98.4 PPG. 9* Under Bucks/Bulls

10* Under Nets/Celtics (7:05 ET): It was a Game 1 thriller on Sunday as the Celtics, after blowing a double digit lead, got the 115-114 win on a Jayson Tatum layup as time expired. As exciting as that finish was, I was a little “down in the dumps” due to the fact I was holding an Under ticket, which was a loser at 224.5. Oddsmakers have bumped the number up for Game 2 though and I’m seeing lots of value on the same bet (Under) as this is a Boston team that ranked #2 in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense during the regular season. I do not believe Brooklyn is going to shoot 53.8% again like they did in Game 1. 

Kyrie Irving seemingly could not miss down the stretch for the Nets as he ended up with 39 points on 12/20 shooting from the field and 9/9 from the free throw line. Kevin Durant had “only” 23 points as he shot 9/24 overall, including 1 of 5 from three-point range. Certainly, the combo of Irving and Durant is capable of producing 60+ points every night. But only two other Nets finished Game 1 in double figures and both were reserves (Claxton and Dragic). Meanwhile, four Boston starters (led by Tatum’s 31) scored 20 or more points, but the rest of the team combined for a paltry 21 points. 

I’m well aware that the Over is now 5-0 in the season series between the Nets & Celtics. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record” (from previous analysis), the playoffs are most certainly a “different animal.” There’s a good chance this could close as the highest O/U line of any of the six times the teams have met and three of the previous five closed with an O/U line of 217 pts or lower. I think that the Celtics are also due for some offensive regression (they’ve averaged 127.2 pts their L5 games) and the Under is 9-3 this season when they play with exactly two days rest. Game 2 will be lower scoring than Game 1.  10* Under Nets/Celtics

8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Well, for the first time in a LONG time, Man City is NOT atop the Premier League table. Liverpool’s 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United put the Reds (I had ‘em) in first place by a single point. But now the Citizens have their opportunity to regain first place as they welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Etihad Stadium on Wednesday. They are desperate to end a three-match winless streak across all competitions, but keep in mind that Brighton has been a “tough out” all season and comes in having beaten both Arsenal and Tottenham (two top five teams) the L2 weeks. 

The schedule seems to be taking its toll on Pep Guardiola’s side as he reported that Man City staff had to treat 71 injuries in the last week! Over the L10 days, the Citizens have had to face Liverpool twice, drawing them in league play (2-2) and then losing 3-2 in the FA Cup semifinals. In between, they played to a goalless draw against Atletico Madrid, which allowed them to advance to the Champions League semis. All is not lost though as a Premier League/Champions League double would be quite the accomplishment. Facing a Brighton club that has scored a total of just three goals in its last five matches should make things easier on the back end. 

It’s been four years since Brighton won three straight on the bounce in Premier League action and their win streak is likely to end here. They’ve lost eight of their last nine fixtures with Man City, including 4-1 in the reverse earlier this season. But I look for the rematch to be a low-scoring, cagey affair as Man City can still claim to have conceded the fewest number of goals (20) this Premier League season while Brighton has only found the back of the net 29 times, third fewest, ahead of only Burnley and Norwich City. 8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City

10* Over Hawks/Heat (7:35 ET): I went with the Over in Game 1 of this series, which did not hit due to Atlanta only scoring 91 points on 38.7% shooting. The team was just 10 of 36 on three-pointers with Trae Young’s 0 for 7 sticking out like a sore thumb. You may recall Young having similar struggles (1 for 7 on 3PA) in the play-in game vs. Charlotte, only to bounce back the next game (vs. Cleveland) and score 38 points. He’s only 5 for 25 from behind the arc in the L3 games, so I’m sensing Young regaining his “touch” tonight and for the Hawks to come closer to their season average of 113.8 points per game. This was the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season! 

Miami didn’t really have much trouble making shots in Game 1 as they finished at 52.4% overall, including 18 of 38 from three-point range. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, this Heat team has a variety of scoring options and on Sunday, it turned out to be Duncan Robinson leading the way as he went 8 of 9 from three-point range for a team-high 27 points. Robinson probably won’t be repeating that performance tonight, but the good news is the Heat have enough options to fill the void left by Robinson regression. Also, Atlanta is not a good defensive team; they are 26th in efficiency, which is the lowest ranking of any of the 16 playoff teams. 

I’m very surprised to see that the Hawks have gone Under nine straight times as underdogs. Look for that trend to end here though as they’ll easily top their Game 1 point total while very likely still giving up a similar number. Miami has shot better than 50% from the field in five of its last six games, never scoring fewer than 111 points in that stretch. Young’s point total (8) from Game 1 marked a season-low. It was just the sixth time that he scored 15 pts or less this season. He’s averaged 31.2 PPG after the previous five times. 10* Over Hawks/Heat

10* Under Raptors/76ers (7:30 ET): It wasn’t Joel Embiid or James Harden leading the way for the 76ers in Game 1. It was Tyrese Maxey, who had 38 points in a breakout performance. Now Maxey didn’t do it all himself as it was a huge offensive night with four players scoring 19+ and the team finishing with 131 points on 51.2% shooting, including 16 of 32 from three-point range. I can’t imagine we’ll see that kind of shooting again from Philadelphia, who is overdue for some offensive regression after averaging 125.4 points over their last five games (5-0 Over). The Sixers also made 29 free throws in Game 1, which is more than usual. 

Meanwhile, Game 1 was a largely miserable experience for Toronto, who are now likely to be without Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes and Thaddeus Young for Game 2. Now the team did shoot 48.8% on Saturday and went 12 of 30 from behind the arc. That’s better than average for the Raptors. Trent, dealing with a non-COVID illness, was 2 for 11 in Game 1. Barnes and Young’s absences will be felt, however. Clearly though, if the Raptors are to have any chances of evening up this series, it has to come on the defensive end. Game 1 was just the third time all season that they allowed 130+ points. 

I’m looking for worse all-around shooting in Game 2 - from both teams. The last two times they have played, three-point shooting has been through the roof. That just can’t continue. Toronto’s only chance here is to slow the game down. Both teams ranked in the bottom six in tempo during the regular season. They also both ranked just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ previous six road games (before Game 1) had all stayed Under and the Under is also 5-2 the last seven times that they have been off a loss. During the regular season, the teams combined to average 36 made free throws per game. They made 48 in Game 1. 10* Under Raptors/76ers 

10* Under Nets/Celtics (3:30 ET): Unders certainly “ruled the day” in the NBA’s “Play-In Tournament,” cashing in all six games. Here we’ve got a matchup of division foes, Brooklyn and Boston, who very well could be considered the top two favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. The Nets are the seven seed, far lower than expected, but any team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving must be considered dangerous. They easily extinguished Cleveland in the play-in round, jumping out to a 20-point lead after the first quarter and winning 115-108. But they did not cover the spread.

Boston ended up with the best net efficiency and point differential among Eastern Conference teams at the end of the regular season. They are the highest rated team, in my own power rankings, in the East heading into the postseason. They ended up #2 overall in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG allowed). Now this team was a bit of a scoring juggernaut down the stretch, averaging 129.8 points over its final five regular season games and going Over in 9 of the last 11. But I can’t see that continuing now that it’s playoff-time. We’ve seen similar trends so far with the play-in teams that ended the regular season in high scoring fashion. 

Over the last seven games, the only time Brooklyn went Over was the regular season finale against an Indiana team that is quite poor defensively. They are 36-19 Under this season when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. I just can’t see the Nets shooting as well here as they have in their last two games (64.2% vs. IND and 53.6% vs. CLE). The Celtics are allowing a 43.5 FG% for the year. Yes, I know all four regular season meetings did go Over the total. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record,” the playoffs are a different animal. 10* Under Nets/Celtics

8* Over Hawks/Heat (1:00 ET): Overs made a bit of a “comeback” in the NBA playoffs on Saturday, cashing in three of the four games. That was after the first seven playoff games all stayed Under. I expect the Over “comeback” to continue in this game as division rivals Atlanta & Miami open their best of seven series. The Hawks had to win two “do or die” games just to get to this point, 132-103 over Charlotte (at home) and then 107-101 at Cleveland. I cashed the Under on both of those games. But with a lower total on this game, I’m expecting a different result. 

Despite an off-shooting night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range, Atlanta still put together a huge offensive performance against Charlotte. Of course, that was at home. Collectively, they didn’t shoot very well from three against Cleveland, making only 9 of 31 attempts. But this time Young rescued them with a 38-point performance. I obviously expect better three-point shooting Sunday from the Hawks. This is a high-scoring team (114.1 PPG) that is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency! I just can’t see them going Under for a ninth straight time as underdogs. 

Miami is the top seed in the East, boasting tremendous depth and a variety of scorers. They led the NBA in three-point shooting during the regular season (37.9%) and in four games vs. Atlanta this season, the Heat shot better than 50% overall. The Hawks aren’t a very good defensive team (they allow 112.8 PPG on the road) and after holding Charlotte/Cleveland to an average of 102 PPG, I think there’s some natural regression at that end of the floor. Four of the Heat’s last five regular season games went Over. 8* Over Hawks/Heat

9* Under Raptors/76ers (6:05 ET): Taking the full advantage of both Chicago & Cleveland falling apart down the stretch, Toronto moved up into fifth place in the East and will now face a Philadelphia team they were victorious against three times in four regular season meetings. The Raptors have lost only four times since March 7th and one of those came in the utterly meaningless regular season finale. Let it be known the Raptors beat the 76ers in both meetings after the latter acquired James Harden. So the team from “North of the Border” certainly seems like a “live dog” in Game 1. But I’m not sure they’re going to score a ton of points on Saturday. 

Philadelphia's last four regular season games all went Over, one of them being a 119-114 loss in Toronto. The total here is lower, somewhat curiously, but I seriously doubt we’ll see the teams shoot as well from three-point range here as they did in that last matchup when they combined to make nearly 50 percent from behind the arc. Two of the Sixers’ last four games saw them top 130 points, but both of those were against the horrendous Pacers. It’s playoff time, and even with Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are due for a bit of a scoring decline. 

Both teams rank just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency and are bottom six in pace. That combo leads me to believe that Game 1 will be lower scoring than expected. Both teams scored less this season when matched up with division opponents. The last time they met here in Philly, which was less than a month ago, the final score was 93-88. Harden has averaged just 15.0 PPG against the Raptors as a member of the Sixers. Toronto is 19-7 Under its L26 road games. 9* Under Raptors/76ers

8* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:05 ET): I hit side and total when the Clippers lost 109-104 in Minnesota on Tuesday. The Under was never really in doubt as the O/U line closed at 231. The Clippers thought they were on their way to the playoffs when they were up 10 in the fourth quarter and Karl Anthony-Towns fouled out. But it was not to be as they finished with just 20 points in the 4Q. As I said in the previous writeup, they were due for an “off-night” offensively after closing the regular season with five straight wins where they averaged 128 PPG. I think that carries over to tonight. 

New Orleans was able to run away from San Antonio early and hold on for a 113-103 win Wednesday. That was my only loss in the play-in round as I took the Spurs plus the points. That play had more to do with what I thought was an underrated Spurs’ side. Tip your cap to the Pelicans for their performance, but I don’t think the team’s three leading scorers (McCollum, Ingram, Valanciunas) will be as efficient as they were in the last game when they combined to shoot 32 of 56 from the field (57.1%) and score 81 points. Note the rest of the team scored just 32 points. On the road, role players contribute less and the Under is 26-15 in Pelicans’ away games this season.

The Under has cashed in four of the last five head to head meetings between these teams, both of whom surprisingly ranked OUTSIDE the top 10 in the Western Conference in points per game. Looking back to the regular season, the two games here in Los Angeles were higher scoring than the two in New Orleans, but the Clips were only able to top 104 pts against the Pelicans once and that was a relatively meaningless affair late in the year. The Pelicans will NOT shoot 54% again (like they did vs. SA) as the Clips have held their L5 opponents to 40.7% shooting and 100.8 PPG. 8* Under Pelicans/Clippers

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Home teams won each of the first four play-in games, but bettors sure don’t seem to like Cleveland’s chances here. That’s probably because, in addition to a poor finish to the regular season, the Cavaliers fell into an early 20-point hole against the Nets (by the end of the first quarter) and never really recovered on Tuesday. But they did cover the spread in that game (only road team to cover this week) and they have an added day of preparation here, plus the home court edge. There’s also the possibility that All-Star Jarrett Allen returns, which would be significant for the Cavs. 

Atlanta blew out Charlotte 132-103 in their first play-in matchup, but unlike Cleveland, the Hawks have to win twice to make the playoffs. The Hawks scored 132 despite an off-night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range. That has to be terrifying for a Cleveland team that let Young, who averaged 32.5 PPG in the four regular season meetings. But while Young’s overall shooting is bound to improve (compared to Wednesday), I don’t think you can expect the Hawks’ supporting cast to shoot as well as they did Wednesday now that they’re on the road.

Atlanta is not a particularly good road team (16-25 SU) and sees its scoring average dip to 111.2 PPG. They go from facing a Hornets team that was dead last in the East in scoring defense to a Cleveland team that is top five in the NBA in scoring defense. The Under is 25-15-1 in Cavs’ home games this season with them allowing just 103.7 PPG. Allen’s return (he is questionable) would be huge at the defensive end. Home teams aren’t the only thing that have been perfect so far in the play-in round; Unders are 4-0 as well. Atlanta did a good job defensively Weds against a Charlotte team that is 4th in the league in scoring. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers

9* Under Hornets/Hawks (7:05 ET): A win here does not guarantee either the Hornets or Hawks a playoff opportunity, rather the winner will head to Cleveland Friday for a game to determine the East’s 8-seed. Charlotte is back in the play-in tournament for a second straight year. Last year, they lost in this 9-10 game, 144-117 to Indiana, ending their season. For Atlanta, being here is a drop from last year when they entered the playoffs as a 5-seed and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a VERY high total for two teams familiar with one another and I’m playing the Under. 

Hornets’ games - on average - are the highest scoring in the entire NBA. They average 230.2 PPG, but even that wouldn’t be enough to go Over this number. During the regular season, the Hornets went Over 41 times and Under 41 times. But when facing a team with a winning record (Atlanta is 43-39 SU), the Under is 27-13. I don’t expect Charlotte to shoot as well as they did over the L5 regular season games (53.5%) nor do I believe they’ll allow Atlanta to shoot 50.9%, which was the FG% allowed by the Hornets to those same L5 opponents. 

Three of the four regular season meetings between the Hawks & Hornets stayed Under, including the most recent one (a 116-106 Charlotte win). Only once did these Southeast Division rivals combine for more than 222 points in the regular season. Similar to Charlotte, Atlanta is 12-2 Under its last 14 games vs. teams with winning records. Do the Hawks score a lot at home? Yes. But their home games still only average 228.4 PPG. In the playoffs, scoring goes down. 9* Under Hornets/Hawks

8* Under Clippers/T’wolves (9:30 ET): Getting this game at home is big for Minnesota, but also for the Under. T’wolves’ games are simply far lower scoring at home than on the road. While their road games average a somewhat stunning 236.6 points per game, at home that number drops down to 221.8. Most of that scoring decline can be traced to the team’s improved play at the defensive end. They allow just 108.4 PPG at home, nearly 10 PPG less than what they allow on the road. They also allow 5.0 PPG less. So I’m going with the Under Tuesday. 

The Clippers have seen a huge uptick in their scoring over the last five games, all of which they won. They’ve averaged 128 PPG during the win streak, which began with a stunning 153-point effort against the Bucks. Shockingly, that was a game where both teams rested star players. Most of the Clippers’ games down the stretch lacked “playoff intensity” as the opponent was either a non-contender (Sacramento, OKC) or had nothing to play for (Phoenix). 

If this O/U line holds, it will be just the second time all season that a Clippers’ game closes with a 230+ point total. So I think there’s value in the Under. Bottom line: the Clippers are due for an “off-night” at the offensive end and I’ve already gone through the huge difference in scoring between Minnesota home and road games. The T’wolves last five opponents have combined to shoot 53.4%, but that’s not going to hold here as they allow a FG% of just 43.7% at home for the year. Keep an eye on the status of PG Russell (illness), obviously. 8* Under Clippers/T’wolves

10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli (9:00 AM ET): Napoli does not own the best goal differential in Serie A (reigning Scudetto holders Inter Milan does), but the Partenopei are closer to the summit than Inter is, just one point behind AC Milan entering Sunday. Napoli has not finished first in Serie A since 1990, so this title pursuit is quite serious. They come into this fixture with Fiorentina on a three-match win streak, but have actually won only three of their last eight at home. Fiorentina figures to be a tough test here. 

Fiorentina is also in the mix for European football next season as they are currently eighth in the table. While catching the top four is probably out of the question, they are just two points back of finishing sixth, which would mean Europa League qualifying. The Viola have taken 14 points from their last seven matches and are coming off a 1-0 win over Empoli last week. 

Though Fiorentina has conceded in each of their last 11 matches away from home and Napoli has scored at least twice in each of the last three meetings, I look for this to be a relatively low-scoring fixture. These are the top two teams in possession in Serie A. Napoli has conceded the fewest goals this season and Fiorentina allows the fewest shots per 90 minutes. Fiorentina has also conceded no more than one goal in each of its last five competitions with two clean sheets. Pace should be slow here. 10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli

10* Under Kings/Clippers (9:40 ET): With three games still to play, the Clippers are already locked into the 8-seed in the Western Conference. They know that they’ll be facing the T’wolves in the play-in tournament with the winner moving on to the playoffs proper. The loser will get a second chance against the Pelicans-Spurs winner. Sacramento, as per usual, fell out of contention long ago. It’s all about pride for them at this point, but they’ve shown little of that lately with B2B double digit losses at home.

The Kings actually haven’t played since Tuesday when they fell 123-109 to New Orleans. They shot 51% from the field, but it wasn’t enough as they allowed the Pelicans to shoot the same percentage with more attempts. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of combined shooting in this game. Sacramento is without De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who are their top two scorers.

These division rivals haven’t met since December when they played three times. This total is much higher than any of those three previous meetings. The total number of points scored across the three meetings decreased every game, culminating with only 194 being scored in the last one. The Clippers, who are due for some offensive regression, have also held their last two opponents to a combined FG% below 40.0. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Kings/Clippers

10* Over Wizards/Knicks (7:10 ET): Consider this a “battle for 11th place” in the Eastern Conference, although that’s a relatively meaningless distinction as you need to finish top 10 to qualify for the play-in round. So it’s little more than “pride” on the line Friday night when the Knicks and Wizards take the court. These teams have met two times previously this season. The first was on X-Mas Day and they blew past the total (208) with the Wiz winning 124-117 as 2.5-point underdogs. The total was much higher for the rematch last month (225.5) and that time they didn’t come close to matching it as the Knicks won 100-97. 

Now this play is a departure from the last time I played the total with the Knicks, which was just two days ago when they lost to the Knicks 110-98. That didn’t even come close to going Over as the number closed at 230. Glad I had the Under then. The Under is now 6-1 in the Knicks’ last seven games as they remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA. But here they’re matched up with a team that plays little to no defense. Washington is allowing 117.8 PPG over its last five contests and like the Knicks, the O/U line for the Wizards’ last game was much higher than this one. So was the previous game, for that matter. 

Washington had gone Over in four straight before losing to Atlanta 118-103 on Wednesday. Now that final score would have obviously gone over this total. The previous four Wizards’ games all saw a minimum of 237 total points scored. In four of their last seven games, they have scored 123+ pts. Expect the Knicks to shoot better here than they did on Wednesday (just 38.6%) when they scored just 31 points in the second half. The Over is 7-1 the L8 times NY has been off a DD loss at home. The Wizards will shoot better from three tonight compared to the Atlanta game when they were just 10 of 35. They also attempted only 11 free throws in that game. They are 9-1 Over L10 home games. 10* Over Wizards/Knicks

10* Over Padres/D’backs (9:45 ET): New for 2022 is a universal DH across Major League Baseball. So no more pitchers coming up to the plate in National League games. Theoretically, that should lead to an increase in scoring across the Senior Circuit. Time to put this theory to the test on Opening Day when the Padres take on the D’backs. San Diego was a big disappointment last season, finishing 79-83. They were SUPPOSED to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West pennant. Meanwhile, no one expected much from Arizona in 2021 and sure enough the D’backs lost 110 games. Only the Pirates and Orioles had worse run differentials. 

I am expecting the Padres to bounce back this year and earn a Wild Card spot (remember there are now THREE WC spots up for grabs). They actually had a positive run differential (+21) last season, so they were better than their record. Offensively, they weren’t where they wanted to be, but they did finish top 10 in OBP. Now Fernando Tatis Jr suffered a wrist fracture and will miss three months, which is a significant blow. But I still expect San Diego to put plenty of runs on the board here as Madison Bumgarner (who they know well), tonight’s starter for Arizona, has seen better days. 

Arizona gave up the most runs in the NL (893) last season and second most in MLB (only Baltimore allowed more). Bumgarner had a rough finish (1-6 TSR final seven starts) and ended up with a 4.67 ERA. Now we’re also going to need the D’backs to score some runs tonight and thankfully they’re up against Yu Darvish, who also had a poor finish to 2021 and was much worse on the road than he was at Petco Park. Darvish started twice at Chase Field last season and those outings did NOT go well (both went Over) as he allowed a total of 10 runs and lasted just 2 ⅔ IP each time. 10* Over Padres/D’backs

9* Over Magic/Hornets (7:10 ET): I don’t expect much defense to be played in this Thursday NBA tilt. Certainly Charlotte hasn’t been playing good defense recently. They’ve allowed 144 points in B2B games, which is absolutely abysmal yet this is the team with the worst scoring defense in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets allow 115.1 PPG for the season, so they should feel rather fortunate to be heading for the play-in tournament next week where they’ll likely have to win twice. Of course, being a top five team offensively (114.8 PPG) is why they’ve still got a shot at making the playoffs. 

Orlando just hung 120 on Cleveland Tuesday in an admittedly uncharacteristic show of offensive strength. The Magic will NOT be heading to the postseason this year; in fact they’re all but guaranteed at finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference. That win over Cleveland snapped a six-game losing streak and came on the heels of two sorry offensive efforts where they failed to score 90 points in consecutive games. We probably can’t count on the Magic scoring 120 again tonight, but consider their defense is lousy (112.0 PPG allowed this season) and five of their last seven opponents have scored at least 114. 

Whomever the road team has been, they have won the previous three head to head meetings this season. After losing to the Hornets twice at home early in the season, the Magic returned the favor with a 116-109 win here in Charlotte back in January (as 11-point underdogs!) While the Magic are not an offensive juggernaut, it should be pointed out that the Hornets have allowed the last two opponents to shoot 59% from the field overall and make 44 three-pointers. On average, no other team in the league plays higher scoring games than Charlotte (229.9 PPG). 9* Over Magic/Hornets

10* Under Celtics/Bulls (8:10 ET): Boston has been scoring A LOT of points recently. They are coming off a 144-point effort (against Washington) on Sunday (I won with the Over) and before that won 128-123 over Indiana. Robert Williams is out (until at least the second round of the playoffs), but the Celtics certainly haven’t skipped a beat offensively as they shot a blistering 61.5% vs. the Wizards and made 23 three-pointers! They can’t possibly repeat that performance tonight in Chicago as it’s a “packed” injury report for this evening. Brown, Tatum and Horford are probable. But, in addition to Williams, Morgan and Stauskas are also out. Look for some serious offensive regression from the C’s tonight. 

I say that knowing full well how the Bulls have struggled defensively the last few games, and really the entire second half of the season. Chicago has given up 127+ points in each of its last three games, including a 127-106 loss last night to Milwaukee here at home. Lonzo Ball’s season is likely over with, but it’s not all bad for the Bulls as they did clinch a top six spot in the playoffs (due to Cleveland losing), so they’ll avoid the play-in tournament. But this team has little “momentum” (still hate that word) heading into the postseason. I’d argue they are the weakest of the 10 teams still viable in the East 

Seeding is all that’s on the line for these two teams in the last few remaining games. Chicago is expected to get Zach LaVine back after he sat out last night. But, other than DeMar DeRozan, the rest of LaVine’s teammates did very little against Milwaukee. Take away DeRozan’s numbers and the Bulls shot just 36% last night. Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows only 104.3 PPG. They are 8-2 Under this season when playing on exactly two days' rest. The Bulls are 4-0 Under their L4 times in a back to back. 10* Under Celtics/Bulls.

8* Under Nets/Knicks (7:40 ET): I’m going with the Nets Under again after cashing that particular wager last night. The total closed at a very high 244.5 last night vs. Houston, a season-high for the Nets. The O/U result was never really in doubt as the game ended 118-105 in Brooklyn’s favor. That was a needed win for the Nets, who are looking to finish 8th in the East as that would mean they’d only need to win once in the play-in tournament (which they are now guaranteed to be a part of). It’s another also-ran on the docket for tonight as the Nets will face a Knicks team that is eliminated from playoff contention.

New York hasn’t played since Sunday - when they crushed Orlando 118-88 in an utterly meaningless game. So they’ll have the significant rest advantage coming into this game. Despite losing all three times, the Knicks have played the Nets tough this year as the three losses have been by a combined 10 points, none greater than five. Also, the most combined points in any of the games was 222. Tonight’s O/U line is notably higher than any of the three previous meetings. Now Kyrie Irving, coming off a 42-point game last night is now in the mix. But let’s see how he does in a rare back to back. My guess is that he won’t be as prolific as last night. He’d shot just 26% the previous five games.

The Nets are also short-handed right now without Curry, Dragic and Johnson. (Note: there is a chance Dragic and/or Johnson could suit up). This team has been really bad on the second night of a back to back this season, going just 2-11 SU and averaging 106.7 PPG. The Knicks are one of the league’s lowest scoring teams at 106.5 PPG (27th) and also are tied for 27th in pace. For both teams, the Under is 5-1 in their last six games. 8* Under Nets/Knicks

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A San Antonio team that has actually outscored its opponents this season (despite being 12 games below .500!) deserves to make the play-in round. After winning six of seven, the Spurs are now 10th in the West, two games up on the floundering Lakers. The remaining schedule will not be easy though; as they face four of the top six teams in the Conference. The status of leading scorer Dejounte Murray (illness) remains in question for tonight. While the Spurs won their last game without him, they won’t have the luxury of facing Portland again here on Tuesday.

While the Spurs are simply trying to scrape their way into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are hoping to avoid that exercise entirely. Denver is currently fifth, two games up on seventh place Minnesota. All they are looking to do is finish in the top six. Led by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, points have been plentiful of late as the Nuggets have scored 125+ points in five of the last seven games. The Over is 8-2 the L10 games. But the shooting we’ve seen from them over the L3 games (62.5%, 53.5% and 57.3%) is certainly due to subside. For the year, their games average 222.3 PPG, which is well below tonight’s O/U line. 

San Antonio hopes to have both Murray and Jakob Poeltl back in the lineup tonight. Regardless, I don’t think the Spurs will keep scoring at the level we’ve seen recently. They’ve gotten to face Portland three times in the last seven games, not to mention Houston (who is 30th in scoring defense). The Under is 16-5 in the Spurs’ last 21 games following an ATS win and 6-1 the L7 times they’ve been off a double digit win. As I already mentioned, Denver is unlikely to keep up its FG% from the L3 games, so I’m rolling with the Under on this high total. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

10* Under Rockets/Nets (7:40 ET): This is an absurdly high total, even for a matchup of the team that plays the worst defense in the NBA (Houston) and one of the more prolific offensive squads (Brooklyn). We’ve obviously seen some high scoring games involving the Nets recently. However, with these high totals, the Under is actually 4-1 their L5 games. Only one of those five contests would have gone Over tonight’s total, which is the highest O/U line yet for a Nets game this season! I’m taking the Under here. 

Even Houston having given up an average of 120.6 points over its last five games doesn’t have me too concerned here. For the season, they give up 118.1, most in the league. The last four games have all gone Over, but that’s with the Rockets averaging over 120 PPG themselves, which is well above their season average. For the year, the team is averaging 107.4 PPG on the road. So I expect some real offensive regression from the road team in this one. In their last game, they shot 56.5% from the field. That won’t happen again here. The Rockets are 17-4 Under after a game where they scored 130+ points, including 3-0 this season. 

 Speaking of “offensive regression,” Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant will not be matching his scoring output from Saturday’s game in Atlanta where he had 55 points (in a loss!). The Nets also could be without Seth Curry, Bruce Brown and Goran Dragic for tonight’s game. Kyrie Irving is shooting just 26.6% his L5 games. As a team, Brooklyn averages fewer PPG at home than on the road. On the bright side, the Nets won’t be sending Houston to the free throw line 49 times like they did against Atlanta. The Nets should win this one easily and the game likely being a blowout should mean fewer points in the fourth quarter, helping our cause. 10* Under Rockets/Nets

10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Atletico Madrid won’t be repeating as La Liga champions this season, but they are in the final eight of the Champions League, facing reigning Premier League champion Manchester City. Atletico ousted Manchester United from this competition in the Round of 16, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford to progress 2-1 on aggregate. Making it successive wins over a Premier League side would be quite the accomplishment for Diego Simeone’s side. They are away for the first leg, thus I’m expecting a relatively cautious approach from them. But I don’t think Atletico is going to concede multiple goals either. They sure haven’t lately. 

Man City has a huge showdown on deck this weekend in the EPL where they will welcome Liverpool here to Etihad Stadium with first place on the line. So, believe it or not, this Champions League tie may not have the Citizens’ full attention. While they made it to the Final of this competition last season (lost to Chelsea), the previous three years all saw Man City ousted in the round of eight. But, as is the case with Atletico, the one thing I am confident in here with Man City is that they won’t be conceding multiple goals here either. They’ve conceded an EPL-low 18 goals this season and in the Round of 16 of this competition, Man City didn’t concede a single goal to Sporting CP. 

While Man City did score five times in the away leg vs. Sporting, it was a 0-0 draw here at the Etihad. Atletico is second in xGA (expected goals allowed) in La Liga and has conceded no more than one goal in each of the last four UCL fixtures. City created only 2.9 xG (expected goals) in the two legs vs. Sporting. Again, Atletico is likely to play cautiously here and be willing to take the draw as the second leg is in Madrid. The pace of this match should be quite slow with City dominating possession, but not creating many scoring chances. 10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City

8* Under Bologna/AC Milan (2:45 ET): AC Milan will enter matchday 31 level with Napoli (66 points) for first place in Serie A. So any points will put them back on the table here. (It should also be noted that Inter could within three of the summit, depending on how they fare Sunday vs. Juventus. That result was not final as of press time). The Red & Blacks have not won the Scudetto since 2011, but they come into April in fine form, having won three straight in the league by the same 1-0 score. Milan defeated Napoli, Empoli and Cagliari during that time. Napoli was obviously a huge win while taking the full three points from the other two was certainly expected. It’s another opponent from the bottom half of the table Monday.

In my analysis for Saturday’s 10* Game of the Week winner on Torino, I spoke of the gap that exists in goal differential between the top 11 and bottom nine in Serie A. Bologna is on the wrong side of the gap, now in 13th, after Udinese won yesterday. It has been a poor run of form for the Red and Blues in 2022 as they have just one win since Dec 22! Over their last 10 matches, Bologna has lost seven times and scored a total of just five goals. They were goalless in March, but on the bright side they conceded only twice in the last three matches. 

When it comes to goal scoring, Bologna has been especially reliant on set pieces this season. They figure to not get many opportunities here against AC Milan, who have conceded the fourth fewest number of goals in Serie A this season after not conceding a single time in March. But Bologna is no defensive pushover; their defensive record is in the top half of the league. One thing I find interesting is that only 23 of AC Milan’s 56 goals this season have come here at San Siro. But Bologna has only 14 goals on its travels. 8* Under Bologna/AC Milan

8* Over Wizards/Celtics (1:10 ET): I believe Boston is the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference (for the NBA Finals), but for now the team is going to miss Robert Williams, who was one of their best defenders. Williams is out until at least the start of the second round of the playoffs after suffering a torn meniscus last weekend. Without him, the Celtics dropped two in a row, losing to Toronto (in OT) and Miami. But they bounced back on Friday with a 128-123 win over Indiana. Still, in three of the last four games, Boston has surrendered 110 or more points. They’ll be challenged again defensively here, facing a team that has put up 262 points its last two games. 

While Boston is battling for a high seed in the East, Washington has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. But the Wizards aren’t rolling over. They’ve won four of five and just destroyed Dallas 135-103 on Friday. They had a pair of 41-point quarters in that game and got a season-high 35 points from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While I do not anticipate the team will be able to match its hot three-point shooting from the last game (17 of 33), at the same time the Wiz are also probably due for some defensive regression. Dallas shot only 29% from beyond the arc on Friday. The Wiz typically allow a much higher percentage. 

I know that none of the previous nine head to head meetings have gone Over in regulation. But this is a prolific Boston team still hoping to finish first in the East. They are currently third in the East, two games behind first place Miami and just a half game behind second place Milwaukee. They are also just a half game ahead of fourth place Philadelphia. The Celtics have scored 124 or more points in six of its last eight games. Washington has scored 123 or more in three of its last four games. The Celtics are 3-0 Over as home favorites of 12.5 or more points this season while the Wizards are 4-0 Over their L4 games following a SU win by 10+ points. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics

10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano (12:30 ET): Granada actually finds themselves at the bottom of the league in xPts (expected points) after being bottom three in that metric last season. Somehow they may again avoid relegation, although as of press time they are just two points clear of the drop zone in La Liga and that’s after a last gasp win over last place Alaves two weeks ago when the game winner came five minutes into stoppage time. That wild 3-2 victory snapped a 10-match winless run in the Spanish top flight and there’s still clearly work to be done if they are to avoid being sent down to the Segunda Division. 

Rayo Vallecano earned promotion from the Segunda Division last season and got off to a shockingly good start in the top flight here in 2021-22. But they too have hit the skids recently with no wins over their last nine fixtures (across all competitions), which includes seven losses and an exit from the Copa del Rey. Vallecano now finds itself down in 13th place, four points ahead of Granada, so they are a little safer when it comes to the threat of relegation but not out of the woods quite yet. They have not won in the league since Dec 18 against Alaves and have conceded at least once in each of those L9 matches. 

In six of Granada’s last eight matches, there have been more than 2.5 xG (expected goals). A lot of that has to do with their poor defensive record, which is fourth worst in all of La Liga right now. They are dead last in the league in xGA (expected goals allowed) as well as shots allowed. They’ve conceded at least one goal in nine of the last 10 matches and multiple goals six different times in that stretch. So I see this one going Over the total on Sunday. It was actually 4-0 in favor of Vallecano when these sides met in the reverse back in August. 10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano

8* Under North Carolina/Duke (8:49 ET): Think this game might have some interest? Improbably, in the midst of Coach K’s final run, we’ve got a Duke-North Carolina National Semifinal. This is a rematch from the regular season finale, also Coach K’s final ever game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and the Tar Heels came in and ruined the party with a 94-81 upset (as 11-point underdogs!). I made a “wrong call” with the Under that night. (Total was 153). For the sixth straight time, a Duke-UNC meeting went Over the total. But, perhaps stubbornly, I feel this one will be different. I cashed a Duke Under in Round 1. That’s the play here. 

Duke has been the exception to the “Tournament rule” to this point. The Under went 10-1-1 last weekend in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Blue Devils’ 78-73 win over Texas Tech was the lone Over. Their 78-69 win over Arkansas was the push. The Over is now 8-1-1 in Duke’s L10 games. But again, given the shooting we’ve seen in this tournament so far, can the Blue Devils really continue to be immune from an “off-shooting” night? This is the highest O/U line for any Duke tournament game thus far and three of the previous four would have stayed Under. Shooting in the cavernous Superdome (New Orleans) could be a problem - for both teams. 

Carolina did allow 80 in regulation to Baylor in Round 2. But other than that, they have not allowed more than 66 in any other game. Three of the four opponents have shot 25% or worse from three-point range. The Tar Heels have not shot all that well themselves in the last two games, both of which stayed Under. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke

10* Over Villanova/Kansas (6:09 ET): So Villanova’s last three games have all gone Under. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, the number of total points scored in games involving the Wildcats has steadily decreased (140-132-118-94). So has Nova’s three point shooting (46.4%-34.8%-30.0%-23.8%). Though their Final Four opponent is holding teams below 35% overall shooting for the Tournament, I believe Nova’s shooting and the number of total points per game here are due to INCREASE. For the season, Jay Wright’s team averages 71.9 PPG. This team (and this Tournament) is due for an uptick in scoring. 

When it comes to the expectation of how Kansas will shoot the basketball on Saturday, I have the same view as I do for Villanova. The Jayhawks have already scored 76+ points in three of their four tourney wins, so I really have less of a concern about their offense. I know that Villanova’s last two opponents have shot 34.4% and 29.8% respectively. But can the Wildcats REALLY count on such putrid three-point shooting from their opponents again? Houston missed 19 of 20 3PA against them in the Elite 8! Kansas averages 78.3 PPG for the season and is #7 in the country in offensive efficiency.

Villanova is not far behind, ranking 9th nationally in offensive efficiency. Their three-point shooting, like I said earlier, HAS to get better on Saturday. At the same time, Kansas can’t count on the sort of good fortune they’ve had from the last two opponents putting up bricks. Providence and Miami missed 37 of 44 three-point tries, a stunning bit of futility. This is the lowest O/U line of the tournament for Kansas. Three regular season totals were lower and all either went Over or pushed. I think we’ll see MUCH better shot making in this particular Final Four matchup. 10* Over Villanova/Kansas

9* Under Brentford/Chelsea (10:00 AM ET): I think we all figure that Chelsea is finishing third in the Premier League table this season. That would actually be an improvement from last year (when they finished fourth), but right now the Blues’ greater concern may be with attaining a couple of pieces of hardware in the FA Cup (where they’ve progressed to the semis) and repeating in the Champions League (where they’re now in the quarterfinals). Still there is work to be done on the domestic front as Chelsea only has a five point advantage over fourth. I expect the usual impeccable play on the back end in this fixture.

While there is current drama in the front office regarding future ownership of the club, Chelsea has won six straight across all competitions and allowed a total of only three goals in the last five. That’s what we’ve come to expect under Thomas Tuchel as his side has consistently conceded very few goals during his managerial watch. Only first place Manchester City has conceded fewer goals this season and only second place Liverpool has conceded fewer times at home. Twice this season the Blues have faced Brentford (Saturday’s opponent) - once in the EFL Cup and once in league play. Neither time did they allow a goal to be scored. 

Now Brentford, a newly promoted side for this season, has just one goal at this point and that is to avoid relegation. They enter Saturday eight points clear of the drop zone and honestly deserve to be even further away based on how they’ve played in their return season to the Premier League. They only lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the reverse, back in October. Unfortunately for the Bees, they just don’t score much when facing the top Premier League teams. Against the top five in xGA (expected goals allowed), they’ve managed only 7.7 xG (expected goals). But with Chelsea in a “look ahead” to next week’s first leg vs. Real Madrid in the UCL, I don’t see them being all that aggressive here. That’s good for Brentford, whose only allowed three goals in the previous two matches vs. Chelsea. 9* Under Brentford/Chelsea

9* Under Norwich City/Brighton (10:00 AM ET): Brighton was my pick, at the start of the season, to be the most improved side in all of Europe (not just the Premier League). At the start of the season, things were looking great as they were in the top half of the table, even sniffing the European places. That’s a vast improvement for a side that finished an unlucky 16th last season. But now, following a poor run of form (six straight losses), the Seagulls are down in 13th position. They’re more than safe from relegation, but it’s a disappointing spot to be in, given the start to the campaign. The biggest problem has been goal scoring. They’ve managed just ONE goal during the winless run.

The opponents for Saturday, Norwich City, are in last place in the table and on a seven-match losing streak. So something is going to have to give here. The Canaries haven’t been quite as sad as Brighton in the goal scoring department, at least recently, but still have managed only five goals in those seven straight defeats. Obviously, a trip back down to the second tier continues to look more and more likely as Norwich has clearly been the EPL’s worst side this season. They have a -45 YTD goal differential and have scored the fewest goals in the league (18). 

Even worse for Norwich is that this fixture is away. They are the only EPL side yet to have hit 10 goals on their travels this season. They’ve also failed to score a single goal in any of their last three meetings with Brighton. It was 0-0 when these two met on the pitch back in October and I would not rule out a repeat of that scoreline here. More than one goal seems rather unlikely, so I love the Under for a second time this week in the Premier League as goals will be in short order in this Saturday morning fixture. 9* Under Norwich City/Brighton

8* Under Suns/Grizzlies (8:10 ET): These teams will be the top two seeds in the Western Conference come playoff time. Phoenix, who is way out in front of everybody, has already clinched the top spot and matched a franchise record for wins (62) after prevailing in each of their last nine games. Clearly, the Suns have been the best team in the league this season. Memphis is second in the West, 8.5 games back of the Suns, and is on its own win streak right now (six in a row). Even more impressive is that they are doing it without Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are an incredible 19-2 SU this season when Morant is NOT in the lineup.

With the lack of stakes, this game will hardly resemble a “playoff-like atmosphere.” However, I still expect strong defensive efforts and this one to go Under the total. The last three Grizzlies’ games have all stayed Under. One would think that with Morant out, the scoring would suffer. But the key to the win streak has been holding four of the last six opponents to 103 points or less. I do think that not having Morant will hurt the Grizz in this matchup, at the offensive end. The team has shot better than its average from three-point range in five of the last six games and I don’t see that continuing here. 

It appears as if Memphis will be sitting several players tonight. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Killian Tillie are all listed as doubtful or OUT. This is a team that relies on its depth, but I have little faith in the “skeleton crew” that will take the floor in this game. Phoenix has to be happy about it, especially after holding Philadelphia and Golden State to 104 and 103 points respectively in the last two games. None of the previous five Suns-Grizzlies encounters have seen more than 227 total points scored. This one won’t either. 8* Under Suns/Grizzlies

10* Over Fresno St/Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): Lacking in the pageantry of tomorrow’s Final Four, or even last night’s NIT Final, we’ve got the Championship Game in the inaugural “Basketball Classic” on tap tonight. Fresno State has beaten Eastern Washington, Youngstown State and Southern Utah to get here. That’s a real “rogue’s gallery” of opponents and all three wins were at home. While still favored, the Bulldogs now have to hit the road to face a Coastal Carolina team that’s beaten MD-Eastern Shore, Florida Gulf Coast and South Alabama in this tournament. The Chanticleers’ last win was as close as it gets as they won at South Alabama, in overtime, on a three-pointer with one second remaining. 

Both these teams have solid defensive numbers. Coastal Carolina gives up only 62.2 PPG at home this season and held South Alabama to 60 in regulation on Monday. But this team can score as well. They average 76.7 PPG at home and this one is in Conway where we last saw them put up 84 on Florida Gulf Coast. This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any CC game all season, home or road. 

Fresno State is actually top four in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 58.9 PPG. But they give up slightly more per game on the road. Though they ended up scoring “only” 67 pts in the semifinal win against Southern Utah, the Bulldogs did shoot 50% overall from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. In the first two games of this tournament, they scored 80 and 83 points. I don’t think that FSU is going to be able to hold Coastal Carolina to the kind of numbers we saw against Southern Utah, who shot just 31.1% overall and 4 of 20 from three-point range. This is the lowest O/U of the tournament for FSU. 10* Over Fresno State/Coastal Carolina

9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:40 ET): Memphis is clearly now the second best team in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies have clinched a playoff spot, surpassed both the Warriors and Jazz in YTD point differential and hold a five-game lead (with six to play) over third place. So this will be the #2 seed in the Western Conference, barring a miracle. That means they’ll face a team that escapes the play-in round in Round 1. Speaking of the play-in round, that’s all the Spurs are hoping for at this point. Last night’s loss by the Lakers moved SA into 10th in the West, a spot they’ll try and hold onto over the next two weeks. 

If you can believe it, Memphis is 18-2 SU this season when Ja Morant doesn’t play. That’s insane. Morant is out again tonight, but it hasn’t mattered as the Grizzlies are averaging a stunning 127.4 points their last five games, all without Morant. They’ve shot better than normal during that stretch, but not astronomically better (48.4%). A big key to the Grizzlies’ success is that they are obviously a deep team. Their second unit logs more minutes per game than any other second unit in the league. You’ve also got Desmond Bane, who has scored 22 or more points in every game since Morant went down. 

San Antonio is NOT a great defensive team, so they should struggle to stop Memphis here. But the Spurs can trade buckets. They are coming off a 123-120 win the other night (in Houston). Dejounte Murray scored a career-high 33 in that game and the thing is the team didn’t shoot all that well (47.0% overall), especially from three-point range (21%). So both teams should be able to maintain recent scoring levels tonight. The total was several points higher when they met last month. There were 126 points scored in the 1H of that last meeting, but it ended up just staying under because of a low-scoring 4Q. Not this time. 9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Over T’wolves/Raptors (7:40 ET): Minnesota has undoubtedly been one of the best teams in the NBA since the All-Star Break. However, having dropped three of their last four games, they seem destined for the play-in round as the seven seed. Entering Wednesday, the T’wolves are two games back of Denver (with six to play) in the race for the six seed. It didn’t help that the T’wolves gave up 134 points in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Defense has not been this team’s strong suit, at least when playing on the road where they have allowed an average of 117.7 PPG this season. That’s a big reason why I’m on the Over here.

Over in the Eastern Conference, Toronto’s prospects of avoiding the play-in round are looking good. They’ve passed Cleveland into sixth and can move back into a fifth place tie with Chicago with a win tonight. The Raptors have won three straight, scoring 115 or more points in every game, and have just two losses over the last three weeks. Now they needed overtime to get the win on Monday, over a short-handed Celtics team that had just beaten Minnesota the day before. But while Pascal Siakam may not match his individual effort (40 points) from Monday here, the team should shoot better than 43.4%. 

Toronto also made just 10 of 39 three-point attempts against Boston, well below their season average of 35%. They shouldn’t have much trouble draining threes here against a Minnesota team that allows opponents to hit 36% from behind the arc, on the road. The T’wolves let Boston shoot 56.3% overall on Sunday. But at the same time, the Raptors will probably also struggle defensively in this matchup. Minnesota averages 117.9 PPG itself on the road, so it should be no shock that the Over is 28-10 in all of their away games this season. The Over is 15-7 in Toronto’s last 22 home games. 10* Over T’wolves/Raptors

10* Under Washington St/Texas A&M (9:30 ET): So I’ve had success so far playing Washington State games in the NIT. I took the Under when they beat Santa Clara 63-50 in the opening round, which was quite the defensive performance by Wazzu as they held the Broncos to 26.5 points below their season average. Then came a 75-63 win at SMU, a tough place to play at. Last Wednesday, I was back on the Under train with Wazzu as they beat another WCC team (BYU), 77-58 as a 2.5-point underdog. Pretty clearly, the Cougars have been “locked in” defensively in the NIT, giving up just 57 PPG! 

Texas A&M, who many felt was “snubbed” by the NCAA Tournament, has also seen the Under hit in all three NIT games. The Under has actually hit four straight times for the Aggies, going back to the SEC Tournament Final vs. Tennessee. The difference between them and Wazzu is that all of A&M’s NIT games (previous to this) were played at home. The Aggies have held Alcorn State, Oregon and Wake Forest to an average of 58 PPG, basically right on par with Wazzu. Not overly concerned with A&M’s transition away from College Station as they held Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee all to 65 points or fewer in the SEC Tournament. 

Look for the Under to hit again in this NIT semifinal battle. Washington State is allowing under 20% shooting from behind the three-point line in this tournament, which is just incredible. Texas A&M is not particularly adept at three-point shooting as is evident by the fact they’re down around 25% for the tournament. On the flip side, Washington State isn’t a great shooting team either; they’re hitting just over 40% overall from the field this season and A&M also happens to defend the three-point line well. Both teams play slow and are top 32 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Wash St/Texas A&M

8* Under Celtics/Raptors (7:40 ET): I also like the Under here. The Celtics shot 56.3% from the floor last night and made 17 threes. Don’t expect them to match those numbers in the second night of a back to back, especially if they end up being extremely undermanned. On the flip side, the Raptors are off their third highest-scoring effort of the season and won’t be able to match their offensive output from the last game either. They shot 60.9% from the field and were 15 of 32 from three-point range. 

While I do like Toronto to cover the spread here, look for Boston to play better defense than they did last night vs. Minnesota. The Celtics are #1 in the league in scoring defense and efficiency. The T’wolves, who play at the fastest pace in the league, shot 53.6% overall and were 14 of 32 from behind the arc last night. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in the league in pace. Toronto has held three of its last four opponents to 104 points or less. The Under is 10-4 their L14 games and 2-0 this season after their previous two 130+ point efforts. The Under has also hit in all three previous head to head meetings between these teams this season. 8* Under Celtics/Raptors

8* Under Jazz/Mavericks (7:40 ET): Utah has lost three straight, its worst losing streak since a stretch in January when it dropped 11 of 13 games (had a 5-game and 4-game losing skid during that stretch). This recent skid has dropped the Jazz into a fourth place tie with the team they’ll face tonight, Dallas, who is also entering in off a loss. You may recall that I played the Jazz Under the total their last time out and that was an easy win as they and the Hornets combined for only 208 points (O/U line closed at 228). Tonight’s O/U line isn’t quite as high, but the opponent is also better defensively. Going Under again. 

Dallas has seen the Under hit in each of its last three games. As mentioned above, the Mavs’ most recent game was a loss. They fell 116-95 in Minnesota, a result which was doubly bad as it means no ground was gained on Utah and the T’wolves (and Nuggets) are breathing down the Mavs’ neck. Unders are nothing new for Dallas as they are the #1 Under team in the NBA this season and it’s been home games mostly responsible for that. The Under is 26-10-1 in Mavericks’ home games and the primary reason for that is they are allowing an average of just 102.1 PPG here. 

Utah has failed to score its season average in four consecutive contests, which is likely tied to them being without Bojan Bogdanovic, who is their second leading scorer. He’ll again be out on Sunday. The Jazz’s scoring has also always been lower on the road (110.7) compared to the road (116.3). Dallas did not shoot well in Minnesota Friday night, but any gains made at the offensive end tonight will be offset by improvement at the defensive end. They let the T’wolves shoot 51.2%, which was the highest percentage by any Mavs’ opponent since 2/25. When these teams met here in Dallas three weeks ago, the Mavs won 111-103. 8* Under Jazz/Mavericks

10* Over Miami FL/Kansas (2:20 ET): Well, Kansas is certainly the team we expected to be here. The Jayhawks are the only remaining 1-seed in the Tournament after both Gonzaga and Arizona met their demise in the Sweet 16. KU was able to outlast Providence on Friday, winning 66-61. But for the second straight time they did not cover. Against Creighton, Bill Self’s team won 79-72 as a 12.5-point favorite. They closed as 6.5-point favorites against Providence. Here they’ll find themselves in a similar price range against an unlikely upstart, that being 10-seed Miami. 

Honestly, I expected that “The U” would lose in the first round to USC. Boy have the Hurricanes proven me wrong. They beat the Trojans 68-66, holding on after taking a double digit lead in the 1H. Then came a shocking upset of 2-seed Auburn, 79-61 as 6.5-point dogs, thanks to a 2H surge. In the Sweet 16, the Canes were short favorites in an unlikely matchup with Iowa State and controlled from start to finish in a 70-56 win and cover. The team is now 10-3 ATS over its last 13 games, 3-0 ATS in the Tournament and also 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a neutral site underdog. They’ll relish the role they are in on Sunday. 

Over their last six games, Kansas has alternated Overs and Unders. I had the Over in the matchup with Creighton, which ended up 79-72. Shooting was not good - for either side - when the Jayhawks faced Providence. The teams combined to shoot 36.2% overall, including an unsightly 6 of 38 from three-point range. I expect better overall shooting in this game and Kansas probably can’t maintain its current tournament average where opponents are shooting just 34% against them. Similarly, Miami’s last two opponents have shot a woeful 9 of 48 from three-point range! Iowa State attempted only FOUR free throws the entire game, a number Kansas will crush. 10* Over Miami FL/Kansas

10* Over Thunder/Nuggets (9:10 ET): At this point, Denver’s main goal is to hold onto sixth place in the Western Conference. Their lead over seventh place Minnesota is down to one-half game after the T’wolves beat the fifth place Mavs Friday night. Those three teams (Mavs, Nuggets, T’wolves) are all separated by 2.5 games and obviously one of them is going to be “odd team out” when it comes to having to win in the play-in round. For tonight’s game vs. OKC however, I’m more focused on the fact that the Nuggets have gone Over in each of their last five contests. 

Defensively, the Nuggets are allowing 121.4 PPG during the 5-0 Over stretch. They are just 2-3 SU after being blitzed 140-130 here at home by Phoenix Thursday night. I had the Over in that one and obviously it was a (very) easy winner. On the bright side for Denver, they are averaging 120.8 PPG over the L5 games. They shot 59.3% against the Suns (only to allow 60.5% shooting). There should be little issue scoring tonight on a Thunder team that has allowed 120 or more points eight different times here in March, including seven of the last nine games. 

OKC were 118-102 winners in their last game, which was at home against Orlando. That was a much higher scoring game than the previous time the Thunder faced the Magic (on 3/20) where there were just 175 total pts scored (and I cashed the Under). In between the games vs. Orlando, the Thunder got beat 132-123 by Boston. Since March 8th, Orlando is the only team not to score at least 120 against OKC. On the bright side, leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could return tonight. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as the Over is 13-3-1 in the Thunder’s L17 games. 10* Over Thunder/Nuggets

9* Over Bulls/Cavs (8:10 ET): This is a critically important game for both teams as it really does feel like one of them is poised to drop out of the top six in the East. Chicago was once on top of the “conference heap” but they have had a brutal second half of the season, losing 10 of their last 13 games. Interestingly, two of the wins came against the Cavs and Raptors, the two teams now directly below them in the standings. Cleveland is tied with Toronto for sixth place as they’ve dropped B2B games. 

Key to the Bulls’ decline has been the defensive end of the floor. Injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso had a major hand in the defensive decline. Caruso is probable for tonight, but Ball remains out. A bit of positive news is that leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (27.6 PPG) is listed as probable as well. DeRozan missed Thursday’s loss to New Orleans where the team put up only 109 points. Of course, the Bulls also gave up 126 in that game, which was the fourth time in the last five games they allowed 125+ points. 

Cleveland’s last six games have all gone Over the total as there has been major regression on the defensive end here as well. The Cavs have allowed 118.2 PPG their L5 games. At least they are scoring though. Before suffering a 117-104 loss in Toronto on Thursday, the team had scored 113+ in five consecutive games. Given how both teams have been playing at the defensive end of late, I’ve got no choice but to go Over in this one. 9* Over Bulls/Cavs

10* Over Houston/Villanova (6:09 ET): These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the entire country. Both are in the bottom in adjusted tempo per KenPom. So it makes sense that we have a low total for the South Regional Final between Houston and Villanova. But might it be too low? I think so. Houston has had only five games with a lower total, all January 5th or earlier. The last three all went Over. One of the two that didn’t came against Virginia, who plays at an even slower tempo than Villanova. As for ‘Nova, they’ve had only ONE game all year with an O/U line lower than 128. It pushed as they only gave up 42 points. The Wildcats will not hold Houston to 42 points here. 

Villanova has seen its own overall shooting percentage decline with each passing game in this tournament. They shot 50.9% vs. Delaware, then 44.2% vs. Ohio State and finally 37.3% vs. Michigan. Total points have declined from 80 to 71 to 63 as has three point shooting 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0%. Do we really expect offensive numbers to decline across the board for a fourth consecutive game? It hasn’t happened all year. The average number of total points scored in Villanova games this season is 135.2. I believe the Wildcats can score at least 64 here. 

While Villanova’s overall FG% defense has improved with each passing game, teams are hitting better from three, peaking with Michigan’s 34.4% on Thursday. That’s good news for a Houston team that has made over 45% of its threes in two of three tourney games so far. The Cougars are averaging 74 PPG in the tournament. In the last 13 games, the fewest points scored by UH is 61. In the other 12, they scored at least 69. Their average number of total points per game scored this season is 134.7. Looking at the numbers, I simply feel that the value is on the Over here. 10* Over Houston/Villanova 

8* Under North Carolina/UCLA (9:39 ET): UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. This Bruins team is 14th in the country in defensive efficiency and thus I believe they are capable of doing what neither Marquette or Baylor could do and that’s slow down this North Carolina offense. Going back to February 12th, only one team has been able to score more than 68 against UCLA and that was Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. 

At the same time, I can’t see UCLA shooting as well as they did in the last round (when they made 56.5% of their field goal attempts). North Carolina has surprisingly held its first two tourney opponents to 35% overall shooting. They held Marquette to just 63 points in the first round. The second round saw the Tar Heels hold Baylor to just 29 first half points. But then came the big ejection of Brady Manek, which led to UNC blowing a 25-point lead (in the final 10 minutes of regulation) amidst a massive defensive breakdown. With Manek back in the lineup, we won’t see another defensive breakdown like that. 

UCLA star forward Jaime Jaquez sprained his ankle against St. Mary’s and thus is questionable to play Friday. I think the Bruins can survive without him, but potentially being without your second leading scorer and top rebounder is tough. This is a much higher O/U line than usual for the Bruins. Note the O/U lines for the first two tourney games were 128 and 126! This is just the third total north of 140 for UCLA since Feb 3rd. Remember that North Carolina was held to an average of just 61 PPG in two ACC Tourney games. They won’t score anywhere close to what they did in the first two rounds of this tournament. 8* Under North Carolina/UCLA

8* Over Warriors/Hawks (7:40 ET): Without Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson Golden State somehow managed to beat Miami on Wednesday, 118-104 as a 10-point underdog. Curry (foot) is out indefinitely, but Green and Thompson will both be back in the lineup Friday as the team faces Atlanta. (Those two were simply given Wednesday off). The Warriors can’t afford any kind of letdown here as they now trail Memphis by 2.5 games in the race for the second seed in the Western Conference. I think we’ll see plenty of offense from the Dubs tonight, even without Curry.

In the East, Atlanta finds itself at the back end of the playoff race, currently occupying the last play-in spot. It’s a far cry from last season when the team made a run to the Conference Finals. Losing by 21 in Detroit on Wednesday was NOT what the “doctor ordered,” although perhaps that result was the byproduct of being in the second night of a back to back. Things really fell apart for the Hawks in the second half when they were on the wrong end of a 23-0 run and then could only manage two points over the first four minutes of the fourth quarter. With them now back at home, I am expecting a far better offensive effort in tonight’s game. 

The Hawks are averaging 116 PPG at State Farm Arena, which is marked improvement from the 109.6 PPG they average on the road. But regardless of where they are playing, the team is giving up just over 112 PPG this season. Trae Young had only 21 points in Detroit after scoring 45+ in three of his previous five games, two of those coming here at home. If Golden State can score 118 without its three best players in the lineup, certainly we should expect around the same with two of them back in the lineup tonight. They actually shot 51.9% against the Heat and are now 6-2-1 Over L9 road games. 8* Over Warriors/Hawks

8* Under Jazz/Hornets (7:10 ET): So the Jazz have lost B2B games for the first time since January. They were humbled Wednesday in Boston, losing 125-97 to the Celtics as a 4.5-point underdog. Entering that game, Utah had the league’s sixth highest scoring offense, but they were held under 100 points for the first time since March 4th as they went 8 of 36 from three-point range. However, I’d say it was the defense that let them down more. They allowed the Celtics to shoot a season-high 59% for the game and make their first 10 shots. That’s why the Jazz found themselves down by as many as 30 points before halftime. 

Charlotte turned in a similarly poor defensive effort that same night against the Knicks. New York would score 40 pts in the 1Q en route to a 121-106 final, ending the Hornets’ five-game win streak. Charlotte really struggled to defend the three in that game, letting the Knicks hit 14 of 26 from distance. Look for that to be a “point of emphasis” here as the Hornets try to lock down one of the “play-in” spots in the East. Similarly, Utah has to be concerned with preserving its status as a top four team in the West. So I’m looking for better defensive efforts from both sides tonight.

The Hornets played much better defense over the final three quarters against the Knicks, but it was largely “too little, too late.” Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league, but still not at the level of tonight’s number. This season, Charlotte is 24-10 Under when facing an opponent that has a winning record, including 12-3 L15 in that situation. Looking at the number from the Jazz’s perspective, they are 7-1 Under this season when the O/U line is 230 points or higher, including 3-0 on the road. 8* Under Jazz/Hornets

8* Over Wizards/Pistons (7:10 ET): I do not expect much defense to be played in this game. Washington has dropped eight of nine, really putting a dent in their already fleeting playoff hopes. They just lost (last night) 114-102 to a Milwaukee team that was resting both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That result leaves the Wizards 5.5 games back of 10th place Atlanta for the last play-in spot and let’s be honest here: the Wiz aren’t making that kind of ground up. They’re allowing an average of 115 points over the L5 games. 

Detroit is simply looking to avoid the Eastern Conference cellar at this point as they continue to battle with Orlando at the bottom of the standings. It was a rare win on Wednesday, 122-101 over Atlanta, as rookie Cade Cunningham led the way with 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists. Cunningham was one of eight Pistons to finish in double figures, so it was a real “team effort” and at one point they went on a 23-0 run! It’s also now four straight games for the Pistons where there has been AT LEAST 222 total points scored. 

In three of their last four games, Detroit has scored at least 115 points. Can they keep that up here? I think so. Washington has allowed eight of its last 10 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. This being the second night of a back to back for the Wizards is key as they are 9-2 Over in that situation this season and 27-11 Over the L3 seasons. But look for the Wiz to shoot well themselves, certainly better than they did last night from three (28.9% vs. MIL). The Pistons have held B2B opponents under 42% from the field, which is atypical for them. 8* Over Wizards/Pistons

8* Over Suns/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A Suns’ win tonight would give them home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Even if they fail to get the job done here, with a nine game lead over second place Memphis, bank on last year’s Western Conference champs ending up as the top seed. Whereas LY’s run caught everyone by surprise, this season the Suns have clearly been the league’s most dominant team, posting the top net efficiency rating and point differential. A big key to their success is having one of the league’s top offenses. Coming into tonight, Phoenix is averaging 128.2 points over its L5 games. 

Denver is no slouch in the scoring department either. They have averaged 117.6 points over their last five games and that’s not all that far above what they average for the season here at home (113.5). Right now, the Nuggets are simply trying to hold on to a top six spot in the West. Phoenix did them a real “solid” last night by beating Minnesota 125-116. That widened the gap between the Nuggets and T’Wolves to 1.5 games. Denver is coming off a 127-115 win over the Clippers on Tuesday night. In that game, they shot 54.2% overall from the field and 50% from three-point range. 

The Nuggets’ last four games have all gone Over the total. The Suns are 6-1 Over in their last seven games. I know that we’ve got a high total here and both teams can’t keep scoring the way that they have recently, but I still don’t think the number is high enough for tonight’s game. Phoenix has allowed 111 or more points in six of its last seven games and I don’t think this being the second night of a back to back really helps. The Over is 6-1 in Suns’ road games when the total is 230 or higher. Denver has given up 115+ points in each of the L3 games. Look for a high-scoring game. 8* Over Suns/Nuggets

10* Under Bulls/Pelicans (8:10 ET): Chicago ran into a train named “Milwaukee” Tuesday night, getting crushed by the Bucks 126-98. The defending NBA Champs shot a blistering 61 percent from the field against the Bulls, handing them their ninth defeat in the past 12 games. Now you would think, giving up that many points, that Tuesday’s game went Over. But much to my chagrin (I had the Over), it did not. The Bulls scored only 98, their fewest in a game this month. But I do not think they are about to allow the kind of shooting we saw in that last game either. Take the Under here. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, 106-103 at Charlotte. They were looking to make it a 3-0 road trip after winning at San Antonio and Atlanta. But scoring only 10 points over the final nine minutes won’t get it done. Like Chicago, the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under the total. (Bulls are also 8-1 Under L9 games). I know the previous six meetings between these teams have all gone Over, but this one should be different as there could be multiple key absences and the number is just too high, given respective season averages. 

Bulls’ games are averaging 223.0 PPG this season. There’s really no difference home vs. road. Meanwhile, Pelicans’ games average just 218.4 PPG this season. At home, things tend to be a little higher scoring (220.9), but not much. Monitor the statuses of Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan and New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram. The latter has missed the L8 games, so him being out again wouldn’t be a surprise. But DeRozan, the Bulls’ leading scorer, is now listed as questionable after suffering a groin injury in the last game. That would be a huge loss for the road team. 10* Under Bulls/Pelicans

**Note: Michigan PG Jones still listed as questionable as of press time. I think the Wolverines are due for a downturn offensively, regardless of what Jones' status ends up being. If he plays, there could be some "rust." 

10* Under Michigan/Villanova (7:27 ET): Through two games in this tournament, Michigan has shot 52% from the floor and averaged 75.5 PPG. They beat Colorado State by 12 (despite trailing by seven at the half) and then stunned Tennessee 76-68, again overcoming a halftime deficit. It would definitely be a surprise if they could win again, but stranger things have happened in March. I did cash the Wolverines in the first round and they are clearly a team that was better than their regular season record. But this game against Villanova promises to be a grind. 

Second seeded Villanova has handled its business against Delaware and Ohio State, winning those two games by a combined 30 points. As expected, it was not very difficult to oust the Fighting Blue Hens as a 35-10 run put that game away. ‘Nova held Delaware to 3 of 20 from three-point range. Then, against Ohio State, the Wildcats raced out to a sizable early advantage before holding on for a 71-61 win. While Michigan has 14 losses on the year, Villanova has lost only one time since Feb 5 and that was by only two points. 

I think a big key when betting the total here is noting that Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in all of College Basketball. They are 345th in pace. This is a strong defensive team, one that averages just 62.9 PPG allowed. Michigan is due for a downturn in shooting and ‘Nova is allowing a FG% of just 40.9 for the year. They also allow teams to shoot only 30.6% from three-point range. We’ve also seen Michigan put the clamps down defensively, holding CSU and Tennessee to just 27 and 31 pts in the 2H, respectively. Tennessee didn’t make a single three-pointer in the 2H on Saturday. 10* Under Michigan/Villanova

8* Under Washington State/BYU (9:00 ET): I think these might be the two of the top three teams left in the NIT. Coming into the Tournament, Oklahoma was the highest rated in my power rankings, but the Sooners are out. That leaves Wake Forest as the highest one left, then these two. In fact, the four highest rated teams remaining are all on one side of the bracket with Wake, A&M and these two. Enough of that though. I had success with a previous Washington State Under and that’s the way I’m playing tonight’s quarterfinal at BYU as this is a very solid team defensively. 

Now stopping Brigham Young may seem like a challenge. The Cougars have scored 90+ points in their first two NIT games, beating Long Beach State and Northern Iowa. But neither of those teams are as solid as Wazzu at the defensive end. Note that when I last played the Under with Wazzu, they were facing another WCC team (Santa Clara) that came in averaging 76.5 PPG. The Broncos had scored 89 or more in three of their last four games, but were held to just 50 points (on 30.0% shooting) by Washington State. Wazzu is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and kept SMU to 63 in the second round, including 20 in the 1H, on the road. 

But Washington State also has shot just under 35% from the field in this tournament. They were 6 of 24 from three-point range vs. SMU. BYU is also pretty staunch at the defensive end, especially here in Provo where they allow just 63.9 PPG. Visiting teams are hitting just 29.4% from three-point range here. In sum, you cannot expect BYU to shoot the ball as well as they have in the first two NIT games. But their own defensive prowess will keep them in this one, a battle of Cougars which looks to stay Under the total. 8* Under Washington State/BYU

10* Over Hawks/Pistons (7:10 ET): Atlanta got back into the win column last night, besting the Knicks 117-111 as a 1.5-point road favorite. Trae Young led the way with 45 points, a nice “recovery” for the Hawks leading scorer after he’d been held to just 21 and 9 in in the team’s previous two contests. But Young is certainly no stranger to crossing the 40-point threshold as he’s now done that three times in the last five games. I expect Young and the Hawks to put up a lot of points again tonight as they face the cellar-dwelling Pistons, a team whose last three games have all gone Over the total. 

Detroit did pick up a win last Thursday in what was the lone NBA game on that particular day’s docket. They scored 134 points on the Magic and that was despite being extremely short-handed. Saddiq Bey exploded in that game for a career-high 51 points. However, since that win, it’s been back to losing in the Motor City. That’s even with leading scorer Cade Cunningham returning to the lineup. Cunningham had 25 points in the Pistons’ 119-115 loss to the short-handed Trail Blazers on Monday. That was a game where Detroit actually closed as a 10-point favorite! They fell behind by as many as 23 before briefly taking the lead, then falling apart down the stretch. 

That Blazers-Pistons game saw some woeful three-point shooting as the teams combined to go just 17 of 63 from beyond the arc. Yet there were still 234 total points scored. That was  owed to NINETY free throws being taken. Won’t be nearly that many here, but I still see an Over. Detroit chose to sit five players against Portland, but looks to be closer to full strength here. Last time these teams met, the total was higher. The Over has hit each of the L4 times Atlanta has been in a B2B and Detroit is 10-5 the Over when the number is 220 or higher. 10* Over Hawks/Pistons

10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier (9:00 ET): Xavier is probably no worse than the Marquette team that got slaughtered (by North Carolina) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But with an 18-13 SU regular season record, the Musketeers were simply not going to get into the Big Dance, particularly after losing six of their last seven games. So they had to settle on the NIT and that’s gone well with a 72-68 win over Cleveland State and 72-56 win over Florida. Another SEC team comes to campus for Tuesday’s quarterfinals, that being Vanderbilt, who has beaten Belmont (82-71) and Dayton (70-68) thus far. 

This will be the first time Vandy has had to leave home in the NIT. Their first two games were both in Nashville. Now they’ll try and make it an “Ohio double” after beating Dayton (in overtime) last time out. The Commodores have fared quite well at the betting window down the stretch; covering 11 of their last 15 games. They just missed out against Dayton as three point favorites. As underdogs, the Commies have covered five straight times. But it’s another streak that I’m looking at here, them having produced four straight Overs. Away from home, I don’t see this team shooting all that well. Also, that last game (vs. Dayton) would NOT have gone Over without OT. 

Vandy isn’t a great shooting team to begin with. Their FG% for the season is only 42.4. I look at the L5 games and see a team that has been scoring well above their season average (78.2 PPG). For the year, the Commodores are averaging just 70.7 PPG. Xavier allows just 64.8 PPG at home and has held its previous two NIT opponents to only 62 PPG. What will keep Vandy in this one though is the fact they are 38th in the country in defensive efficiency and allow just 30% shooting from three-point land. Xavier is actually better than that (at home), allowing just 29.4%. Neither team is great at the FT line either. Xavier’s second leading scorer (PG Scruggs) is questionable after leaving the last game with a knee injury. 10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (8:10 ET): This is a high total, but consider that the last time these teams played (earlier this month), the number was even higher (239.5). That previous meeting did NOT go Over, but did see 230 total points scored (Bucks won 118-112). The Under is actually 2-0 in Bulls/Bucks meetings in 2021-22 with the first being really low-scoring. But for that first meeting, the Bulls did not have Zach LaVine and the two teams combined to shoot an irregularly bad 13 of 69 from three-point range. Going back to February 5th, the fewest total pts scored in any Milwaukee game is 228. I’ll take my chances here with the Over.

Chicago played last night and picked up a key win over Toronto, 113-99. The win kept them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and also widened the gap over the seventh place Raptors to 2.5 games. This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing in a back to back where the first game was home and the second was away. The previous two occasions have seen an average of 237 total points per game scored. The Bulls’ defense has been very shaky over the last month or so and will NOT keep the Bucks in check the way it did Toronto (who shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range).

In fact, the previous two games - when it faced Utah and Phoenix - Chicago gave up 125 and 129 points. Milwaukee has scored 117 or more in every game but one since the All-Star Break. That one time was against Golden State, who is one of the top two defensive teams in the entire NBA. Now the Bucks have their own issues defensively as the last two games have seen them surrender 126 and 138 points. They allowed 38 made threes in the two games. The Over is 13-5 in the Bucks’ last 18 games overall and 9-3 L12 at home. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks