Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-28-19 | Central Michigan +20 v. Purdue | Top | 62-97 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
8* Central Michigan (12:00 ET): I am absolutely on board with the notion that Purdue is better than its record. The KenPom ratings have the Boilermakers rated as the 13th best team in the country while I've got them at #22 in my own power ratings. This despite them already having five losses, the most recent coming exactly one week ago to Butler (on a neutral court). But they're also coming in way overvalued for today's tilt with Central Michigan. I'm taking the points. Central Michigan has the same 7-5 SU record as Purdue. Obviously, they have not faced the same level of competition. But they should have handed then-unbeaten DePaul its first loss back on November 26th as they led by double digits at halftime (on the road!) only to fail to even cover the DD spread! More recently, the Chippewas have lost three straight, all on the road. But after a 10-day break, I think they're ready to compete. Those L3 road games were all played within a 10-day span. Central Michigan can definitely score as they average 87.9 PPG, which is 3rd most in the entire country. Furthermore, they are top 10 in adjusted tempo, so they play fast. There have been a couple "clunkers" from the Chips (against Minnesota & Valpo) and Purdue is very good defensively. But I still see the underdog scoring enough to stay within what is a very generous number. Purdue is only 314th in the country in points per game and their 2nd leading scorer is dealing with a concussion. 8* Central Michigan |
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12-27-19 | 76ers v. Magic +3 | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic have already beaten the Sixers once this year and they were actually favored in that game. Now they're an underdog and catching Philadelphia at what looks to be a very opportune time. Philly just played one of its best games of the year as they blew out the Bucks on X-Mas Day. Can you say letdown? Take the points. The 121-109 win over Milwaukee was the Sixers' third consecutive win and cover. They are now 23-10 SU, which is the 4th best record in what is rapidly becoming a "top heavy" Eastern Conference. But while beating the Bucks was very impressive (led by as many as 29!), the win came at home where the Sixers are now 16-2 SU. But on the road, they have a losing record (7-8 SU). I can all but guarantee that we won't seeing a repeat of the Sixers' shooting on Christmas. They hit a franchise record 21 three-pointers. We know Orlando can play defense as they are allowing just 104.9 PPG, which is third fewest in the entire NBA. They held the Bulls under 40% from the field in Monday's 103-95 victory. That snapped a three-game losing skid and was just the second win for the Magic in their L8 games. But this is a pretty clear "ambush spot" from where I sit. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is back in the lineup and he makes this a pretty formidable team. 10* Orlando |
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12-26-19 | Knicks v. Nets -7 | Top | 94-82 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Tip your cap to the Nets, who have managed to stay relevant despite lengthy injury absences from both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert. Of course, Kevin Durant hasn't even suited up this season, but that was expected when he was signed. Still, when Irving and Durant were both brought in, there was a lot of internal optimism from the franchise. Being 7th in the Eastern Conference probably isn't want they had in mind, but given the injuries, it's not all that bad. This team should still easily make the playoffs. The Knicks lost out on both Irving and Durant in free agency and when then happened, the team was pretty much resigned to another losing year. Sure enough, New York comes in at 7-24 SU. Only the Hawks have a worse record and point differential. The Knicks don't score much (tied for last at 103.5 PPG) nor do they play very good defense. They're currently on a three-game losing skid that has seen them allow an average of 124.3 PPG. The emergence of Spencer Dinwiddie has been huge for the Nets as he's come in and averaged 26.1 PPG on 44.5% shooting as a starter. He's scored 20+ points in 16 of his last 18 games including a career-best seven in a row. Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS its L11 games and clearly superior to their NY rivals. The Knicks are a miserable 3-12 SU on the road, 0-8 SU in division games and 0-6 ATS when playing with exactly two days rest. The Nets should have no problem winning this game by a big margin. 10* Brooklyn |
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12-25-19 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:35 ET): They don't have the star power of many of their Western Conference contemporaries, but the Nuggets storm into Christmas night on a seven-game win streak and in second place, which is right where they finished last year. I think the most surprising thing about the team this year has been its defense, which leads the league by giving up just 102.1 PPG. They are big favorites here at home vs. New Orleans, but for good reason. Lay the points. The Pelicans have had a dreadful 1st half, which has included a 13-game losing streak. They snapped that last week with a 107-99 win at Minnesota, a team dealing w/ its own DD losing skid currently. Then after a four-point loss at Golden State, NO won again, surprising Portland Monday as six-point dogs, 102-94. The bad news here for the Pelicans is that they are 0-4 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as a dog. This will also be their 4th straight game on the road. Denver is not an easy place to play either. The Nuggets have a 13-3 SU home record and tighten up their already stout defense a little more here. Believe it or not, Denver has some revenge here for an Opening Night loss in the Big Easy. It's really surprising to see that they are 0-5 ATS vs. the Pelicans since the start of last season with three outright defeats. Look for that streak to come to a resounding end tonight as the Pelicans are no match for the vastly superior Nuggets. New Orleans allows the most points per game in the Western Conference. 8* Denver |
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12-25-19 | Clippers v. Lakers -2 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (8:00 ET): These teams haven't met since Opening Night when the Clippers dealt the Lakers a 122-112 defeat. I played the Clips in that one, stating I was unconvinced that the Lakers could emerge the top team in the Western Conference. While I was right about the game, I was wrong about the Lakers' prospects as they come into X-Mas leading the West w/ a 24-6 record. That said, they are currently on a season-worst three-game losing streak (LeBron sat Sunday's game vs. Denver). With LeBron obviously playing I have the Lakers getting it done in this revenge spot. The Clippers are currently 4th in the West with a 22-10 record. They have a similar YTD point differential to the Lakers and another thing they have in common is some recent stumbles. The Clips have dropped three of five, including a 118-112 decision at OKC on Sunday. Also like the Lakers, this team is much better when both of its superstars - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George - both play (11-3 SU in those games). But I'm not convinced that they are as good as the Lakers. The fact that the Lakers have lost three in a row is pretty significant in that it should have them really motivated (as if they needed any extra motivation) for this X-Mas Day game. Plus there's the revenge angle. Following the Opening Night loss to the Clippers, the Lakers would go on to win 24 of their next 26 games. I wouldn't put much stock into the three-game losing streak as one of the losses came against Milwaukee and another w/o LeBron. The Lakers rate higher than the Clippers in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the short number. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-23-19 | Georgia State +8.5 v. SMU | Top | 76-85 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): After an 8-0 start to the year, SMU has now lost B2B games. The most recent was a double overtime affair at Georgia. All three of the Mustangs' "true" road games have been decided by four points or less. While they do return to Dallas for this last game before X-Mas, the last time SMU played here at home, they got beat 91-74 by a Georgetown team that was on the verge of being depleted by the transfer portal. Looking at the early line movement, I think people are selling on the notion of SMU losing three straight. I remain a little more skeptical of them. Georgia State comes in on a seven-game win streak. They are also 8-2 ATS this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers have also lost to Georgetown, but their game was closer (lost by only eight) and it was on the road. They haven't lost since falling to the Hoyas. The only other two losses were to Duke and by four at College of Charleston. An underdog that averages over 80 PPG is very attractive. The Panthers have covered all five "true" road games as well. In their last game, Georgia State held Texas State to 36.5% shooting, which shows they can play some defense as well. That was their second straight win to open conference play and right now they should probably be considered the favorites to win the Sun Belt. The Panthers play at a very fast pace, rank third in the country in three-point percentage (41.2), don't turn it over much and are efficient in rebounding and at the FT line. This is a very live dog against a SMU team that really hasn't beaten any opponent of real consequence. 10* Georgia State |
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12-21-19 | Rockets v. Suns +6 | Top | 139-125 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Leading scorer Devin Booker returned last night for the Suns, but it wasn't enough to turn the tide as the team lost 126-108 out in Oklahoma City. That's five losses in a row now for the Suns, who have tumbled down the standings as a result. But the numbers still suggest that this is a competitive ballclub as they're only being outscored by 0.3 PPG on the year. Tonight, they return home. While they came up short the L2 home games, those losses were by a combined three points. It's not an easy opponent coming in tonight, but I'll take the points w/ Phoenix. The Rockets are coming off a big win out in LA as they beat the Clippers on Thursday, 122-117 as five-point dogs. But it wasn't easy. They trailed by as many as 16 in the second half and needed 40 points from Russell Westbrook in addition to 28 from James Harden. It was actually the second straight game where Houston rallied from a big deficit to win. Monday night at home vs. San Antonio, they trailed by as many as 25 before coming back to win 109-107. There's no denying the Rockets are a good team, but needing these kind of comebacks isn't a great sign. This is the 4th time Houston has won B2B games since Thanksgiving. They have yet to put together a three-game win streak as they are 0-3 SU/ATS off B2B wins w/ every loss coming in a game where they were favored to win by at least 7 points. With Booker, Phoenix can definitely score (116.6 PPG at home) and they are 13-4 ATS when playing with revenge. Two weeks ago, they lost by only six in Houston (were +11.5). While that was their 12th straight loss to the Rockets, the final margin being close only confirmed that the Suns are a lot better now than they've been in past years. 10* Phoenix |
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12-21-19 | Kansas State -1.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
10* Kansas State (7:00 ET): This game takes place at a neutral setting (Kansas City, MO). Kansas State doesn't exactly come in peak form as they've dropped four of six, including a 67-61 setback at the hands of Mississippi State last weekend. That was also a neutral site game, which took place in Newark, NJ. Poor shooting was the clear culprit as the Wildcats made only 32.3% of their FG attempts, including just EIGHT two-point field goals. I expect an improvement on offense here against a St. Louis side that just let a non-DI opponent shoot better than 50%. St. Louis is 9-2 SU w/ their only losses coming to Seton Hall and Auburn. The Auburn loss was exactly one week ago and it was a very uninspired follow-up on Tuesday as they beat Maryville, a non-board team, 82-69. Most concerning for the Billikens is they allowed 51.9% shooting. While they were never really in danger of losing, SLU allowed Maryville to make a stunning 23 of 38 two-point field goals. That's shocking for that caliber of opponent. Kansas State has not played since last Saturday, giving them a bit of an advantage. I realize it's been a bit of a disappointing stretch for the Wildcats, but two of St. Louis' top three scorers are dealing w/ injuries. KSU is also 5-1 SU and ATS the L6 head to head meetings. The Wildcats are still solid defensive (only 59.0 PPG allowed) and I see this as being a "breakout" game. 10* Kansas State |
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12-20-19 | Liberty v. Towson +7 | Top | 66-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
8* Towson (5:00 ET): Raise your hand if you were aware that Liberty was one of the four remaining unbeatens left in College Basketball. Quite frankly, the entire quartet includes names you wouldn't expect as Liberty is one of two teams not even ranked (Duquesne is the other). Auburn and San Diego State are the other two unbeatens, but I don't think anyone is really talking about either of them (well maybe Auburn) as a potential Final Four team. Liberty is 12-0 SU, which is the best record in the country. But the Flames haven't exactly had to "run the gauntlet" schedule-wise. In terms of strength of schedule, KenPom says they've played among the 10 easiest in the entire country! Tip your cap to the job done so far as they have blown out a majority of their opponents. They also just went on the road and beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. That was the fifth straight lined game that they covered. But I remain very suspect of this team's success. I won't sell you on the notion that Towson is any kind of great team. But the Tigers should certainly be coming in motivated for this game against an undefeated foe. The game takes place in Washington D.C. as part of the "Battle for the Capital" Tournament. Towson has had nine days off since they beat UMBC 77-71 (didn't quite cover as 8.5-pt dogs). While Liberty is going to look to establish its usual methodical pace in this one, I see the underdog staying within the number as they've already taken on a number of stronger opponents like Florida and Xavier. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 120 to 129.5. 8* Towson |
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12-19-19 | Montana State v. CS Bakersfield -4 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Cal State Bakersfield has had all sorts of problems covering spreads this season. They enter this game at 1-8 ATS and have also lost three in a row straight up. Two of those games, vs UC Santa Barbara and at Idaho, were close. The Roadrunners were even favorites at Idaho (-5.5) last Saturday, but eventually went down in OT by a score of 76-70. That final six-point margin was the largest lead either team enjoyed the entire game. Such are the breaks when you're a struggling team. But I see the Roadrunners earning a rare win tonight at the expense of Montana State, who is playing its second road game in four days. The first saw them lose by 14 at North Dakota State. Since a 4-1 start, the Bobcats have now lost three of five. They haven't dropped B2B games yet this season, but I think it speaks volumes that they come in as the underdog here. So far Montana State has been favored in only two games. That's two fewer times that Cal State Bakersfield. I'm counting on homecourt advantage playing a role tonight. CS-Bakersfield has averaged 81 PPG at home so far and all four wins this season have come right here. While its true three of those were against non-DI foes, they did also beat Hampton 70-57 as a seven-point favorite. Montana State, meanwhile, is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Despite shooting just 35.1% their last game, CS-Bakersfield still managed to almost win on the road. They are "due" for a win tonight and get the job done. 8* CS-Bakersfield |
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12-18-19 | Cal Poly +11 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Cal Poly SLO (10:05 ET): Cal Poly is off a terrible loss (to Fresno State), but thankfully is catching generous number tonight at Sacramento State. Obviously, those two things are tied together. Scoring only 37 points isn't an easy thing to do, but that's what the Mustangs finished with Saturday vs. Fresno. And that was a home game. They shot a dreadful 24.5% from the field including 1 of 16 from three-point range. But, believe it or not, it was just a three-point game at halftime. Sacramento State is a team probably not on your radar, but they should be as they are the only perfect ATS team left in the country. Though they lost Saturday, the Hornets improved to 6-0 ATS by staying within the number at Santa Clara. The final score was 60-58. It was only the second loss of the year for Sacramento State, the other coming at Colorado. They actually led Santa Clara much of the game, but could not overcome their own poor shooting night. The key for tonight is that this is the most points Sacramento State has had to lay in any game so far this season. Looking at Cal Poly's resume, that should not be a surprise. But Sacramento State has been a dog in half of its lined games so far and it's a big jump to DD favorite. Cal Poly has faced better teams than Sacramento State and I'm willing to chalk Saturday up to "one of those nights." The fact that the number came down rather quickly only confirms my suspicions here. 10* Cal Poly SLO |
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12-15-19 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +8.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (6:30 ET): #3 Ohio State is set to open conference play on Sunday with a visit to Minnesota. The Big 10 is once again absolutely loaded with three teams currently in the AP Top 5 and seven in the top 25 of the KenPom ratings. Minnesota may not be one of those teams, but they still present a formidable challenge for the unbeaten Buckeyes on Sunday. We've seen unbeatens "drop like flies" over the past week, so I'm taking the points here. Minnesota's Big 10 opener did not go well as they were beaten by 20 at Iowa on Monday. It was the Gophers' worst loss of the season as they shot just 36.8% from the field. Looking at the game by game shooting percentages, it's easy to identify which games the Gophers have won and which they have lost. In their four wins, they are shooting better than 50%. In the five losses, they are below 38%. Three of those five losses were on the road, however. Ohio State has been dominant at both ends of the floor. They just scored 106 points on Penn State last Saturday, a performance that was preceded by a 74-49 beatdown of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. While a case could be made that the Buckeyes have played better than anyone in the country so far, I think this is a spot where they can slip up. They've been off for over a week and it's just their second "true" road game. The Gophers have revenge for an ugly 20-point loss in Columbus last year (I had the Buckeyes in that one), plus can OSU really cover for an eighth straight time? 10* Minnesota |
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12-14-19 | Thunder +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): With the exodus of talent that took place in the offseason (both Russell Westbrook and Paul George leaving), most expected the Thunder's win total to take a serious nosedive in 2019-20. But they've remained competitive and actually have a positive point differential and net efficiency rating entering Saturday. Only six teams in the West have winning records right now, so the Thunder could actually end up making the playoffs if they can maintain their level of play from the first quarter of the season. I like them as an underdog tonight in Denver. The Nuggets won the Northwest last season w/ a 54-28 SU record. That was second best among all teams in the conference (behind only Golden State), but it came w/ a caveat, that being a 13-3 record in games decided by three points or less. So I anticipate a little regression from Denver this year. But, like the Thunder, so far they've been able to outperform expectations, largely due to giving up the fewest number of points in the league (101.6 PPG). They are 5th in the West right now, which honestly is where I expect them to finish. Over the previous two seasons, the Thunder are 0-8 ATS vs. the Nuggets and 1-7 straight up. They've lost all four games here in Denver. But I like the number we are getting tonight. Over those last eight head to head meetings, the Nuggets have been favored just one time. OKC has covered four straight, the last three all coming on the road, and the only SU loss during that stretch was by a single point. They've held their L3 opponents all under 100 points. In what could be a low-scoring game, taking points is a premium. 10* Oklahoma City |
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12-14-19 | CS Sacramento v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
10* Santa Clara (5:00 ET): Whenever I see Santa Clara, I think back to when I was a kid and they pulled that big 1st Round NCAA Tournament upset against Arizona. It was one of the first times a 15-seed ever won a 1st round Tournament game. Just to illustrate how long ago that was, Steve Nash was on that team! He's retired from the NBA now, I'm not a kid anymore and Santa Clara really hasn't done anything notable since. But I'm looking for them to make a "new memory" for me this afternoon as they host Sacramento State. Santa Clara has actually been pretty good this year. Their only two losses have been on the road, at Nevada and Stanford. At home, they are 9-0 SU and winning by an average margin of 21.1 PPG. True to form, the Broncos beat Cal by 19 here last Saturday. Every win this year has been by double digits. The Broncos are getting the job done at both ends of the floor, shooting over 50% at home while keeping their opponents down at 39.4%. Sacramento State's only loss this year came on the road to a ranked Colorado team. So the Hornets will be a real test for Santa Clara this afternoon. Sacramento State is one of only two teams left in the country w/o an ATS loss (5-0 ATS), the other being UTEP, who has played only three lined games. It was a close call last week on the road against CS-Fullerton as they pulled off a 62-59 win as 2-point favorites. I don't like the chances of a team that has topped 62 only once against a D-I opponent here. 10* Santa Clara |
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12-13-19 | Pacers -6 v. Hawks | Top | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:35 ET): The Pacers just picked up a big conference win on Wednesday, beating Boston 122-117 here at home. They came from behind, overcoming a 10-point deficit and 44 points from Kemba Walker, in doing so. Now they'll be taking on a far less formidable foe in Atlanta, a team they have beaten six straight times. While the game is on the road, the spread should be a lot higher than where it opened at. The Hawks have surrendered 130+ points in three of the last four games. Lay the points. I faded Atlanta in its most recent game, Wednesday in Chicago, noting what a horrible spot it was for such a bad team. Just the night before, they'd blown a six-point lead in the final minute of regulation and lost to Miami in overtime. Sure enough, the Hawks came out like a defeated team on Wednesday, allowing the Bulls to shoot an insane 57.4% from the field. It was the Bulls' best game of the season, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of what's going on in Atlanta right now. This is a team that's won just twice in its last 15 games. The Hawks are very clearly one of the worst teams in the league this year. They are being outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions and are second to last (tied w/ Cleveland) in defensive efficiency. A couple weeks ago, they were able to stay within one point of the Pacers in Indiana, but that was an off-shooting night for the Pacers. Trae Young also went for a career-high 49 points. While that game may have been close, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Indiana to win by a larger margin tonight. They just scored 122 on one of the league's better defensive teams. 10* Indiana |
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12-12-19 | Northern Iowa v. Grand Canyon +6 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Back on Sunday, Grand Canyon failed in its attempt to become the first team to knock off (still) unbeaten Liberty. They lost 70-61, but did cover for me as 9.5-point dogs. Tonight the Antelopes face another hot team, that being Northern Iowa, who just knocked off Colorado. While off to a strong 9-1 SU and 7-1 ATS start to the season, I think this is a dangerous spot for UNI to be laying points. Their last five games have either been non-lined or seen them as underdogs. Grand Canyon went scoreless for about 6:30 in the second half Sunday, which ended up costing them the game. Poor shooting has been a problem for Dan Majerle’s team this year, but eventually these open shots will start falling. This is a team that’s been in every game but one (at San Diego State). They are 31-8 SU L39 home games. Northern Iowa’s win over Colorado was their first over a ranked opponent in the last seven tries. They were red-hot from the floor, especially from three-point range where they made over 50 (14 of 26). Can’t see that kind of shooting happening again in a second straight road game. It’s also their second road game in three days, a tough spot. Four of the Panthers wins so far have been by five points or less. 10* Grand Canyon |
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12-11-19 | Hawks v. Bulls -5 | Top | 102-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): I would consider this line to be too low even if the Hawks weren't playing in the second night of a back to back. But they are and the situation really couldn't be much worse as the Hawks really let one slip away last night. They led Miami by six points in the final minute of regulation, prompting Trae Young to proclaim "It's Over!" to the Heat bench. Already carrying the burden of being the guy the franchise got when it traded the draft rights to Luka Doncic, it's going to be tough for Young to live last night down. To add injury to insult, the final score ended up being 135-121, the NBA's largest margin of victory in an overtime game in over a decade! So that's what Atlanta is up against here. For Chicago, this is a great chance to pick up a much needed win. The Bulls have won just twice in the past eight games, but they've generally been losing close. The last four losses have been by a total of 12 points. They've lost their last three games, but that includes a two-point loss to Golden State (blew 9-pt 4Q lead), their own OT loss to Miami (led by as many as 11 in that one) and then a one-point loss to Toronto (blew 8-pt 4Q lead). The Hawks are one team the Bulls have actually had some success against these last few years. They are 6-2 SU and ATS the last eight head to head meetings, including a 20-pt win down in Atlanta last month. The Bulls are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS when on a three-game losing streak this season. With the Hawks just 3-10 SU and giving up 123.2 PPG on the road, the line should be several points higher for this one. 10* Chicago |
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12-10-19 | Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
8* Baylor (9:00 ET): Butler (9-0) is one of eight unbeatens still standing, but tonight the Bulldogs are facing arguably their toughest test to date. They head down to Waco to face a 7-1 Baylor team that just knocked off another previously unbeaten team (Arizona) on Saturday. For Butler, this game comes on the heels of a hard fought home win over Florida. That win extended the nation's longest non-conference home win streak to 56 games. But the Bulldogs are just 6-17 SU their L23 on the road. I'm going to lay the points here. A number of unbeatens fell on Saturday and soon enough there will be none left. For Butler, this just seems like the spot. Baylor has lost only once (by 3 at Washington) and comes in on their own six-game win streak, which includes wins over Villanova and Arizona. The most impressive thing about this Bears team is that they are allowing just 33.2% shooting at home, including 22.1% from three-point range. So for the first time all season, you can look for Butler to struggle to score tonight. Villanova is the only Baylor opponent to top 67 pts thus far. Butler hasn't let any opponent score more than 67 this season. However, the three times they have played away from home, they've allowed opponents to shoot 46.7%. Baylor is one of the few teams in the country not struggling with the new three-point distance as they're currently making 37.8% from behind the arc. Over the last three seasons, Butler has never won a game in which it was a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. That won't change here. 8* Baylor |
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12-10-19 | Wizards -1.5 v. Hornets | Top | 107-114 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): No one is going to claim that Charlotte's 9-16 SU record is anything to "crow about," but the fact of the matter is the Hornets are lucky to have won that many games. They've got a per game point differential of -7.7, which ranks 5th worst in the league. So expect the losses to pile up as the season progresses. They've dropped four of five, including a loss to a terrible Atlanta team on Saturday where they gave up 122 points. This is a another shot where we don't have to lay many points to fade this very bad team. Washington is interesting because they are very good offensively (top three in PPG) but also very bad defensively (allow most PPG). So you can always expect a wild game when this team takes the court. They gave up 135 pts their last time out, but that was to the Clippers. Tonight marks the first time this season that the Wizards have been installed as road favorites, which tells you all you need to know about Charlotte. Recently, the Wiz have been have had to face a number of the league better teams, which helps explain why they've lost seven of nine. This is a rare game that they should win. Again, it's telling that they are favored here despite having a slightly worse WL record than Charlotte. While both teams struggle defensively, Washington's offensive prowess should be enough to get the 'W' here. Three weeks ago, they beat the Hornets 125-118 in D.C. Expect a similar result tonight. 10* Washington |
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12-09-19 | Pistons +2 v. Pelicans | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I just don't see how the Pelicans can be favored over anybody right now. They've lost eight in a row w/ three of those coming by at least 20 points. The most recent was the worst one yet as they lost by 46 in Dallas Saturday. They are 1-6-1 ATS during the eight-game SU losing streak. Incredibly, that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from favoring them for the third time in the last five games. Detroit might not be a good road team, but they are better than the Pelicans. The Pistons have won three of four with the only loss coming to Milwaukee. Two of the wins were blowouts (San Antonio, Cleveland), then they rallied to beat Indiana 108-101 on Friday. With games against Dallas and Houston coming up, winning here is a must. Note that despite a 9-14 SU record, the Pistons have both a positive point differential and net efficiency rating this year. New Orleans' YTD point differential and their net efficiency rating are both among the worst in the league. Only five teams have been outscored by a wider margin overall. They have the third worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. I've got them rated as the 7th worst team in my own personal power ratings. Injuries have been rampant. Just not a good team and they shouldn't be favored here. 8* Detroit |
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12-09-19 | Columbia +11.5 v. Duquesne | Top | 54-90 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Since Saturday, the list of unbeaten teams has fallen from 16 to 8 w/ DePaul being the latest victim. Of the eight remaining unbeatens, we have Duquesne rated the weakest. The Dukes are in action Monday, hosting Columbia. The Dukes have been favored in all seven games so far, as they are tonight, but this is a team that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency. No other unbeaten ranks lower than 78th in that category. Columbia is just 3-7. This is the second time in the last three games that they are facing an unbeaten foe. Last Monday it was Delaware. They lost by eight to the Blue Hens, who have since tasted defeat for the first time. On Friday, the Lions lost by two at Bryant as they turned it over in the final seconds, which led to the game winning basket. Incredibly, that was Columbia’s third loss by exactly two points already this year. I feel they are better than their record. Will the Ivy League contingent pull the outright upset here? Not sure. But it’s definitely worth a try plus the points. They’ve faced a tougher schedule than Duquesne. I mentioned earlier that the Dukes have been favored in every game. Well, they are just 3-4 ATS including 0-2 ATS when laying double digits. 10* Columbia |
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12-08-19 | Liberty v. Grand Canyon +9.5 | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* Grand Canyon (6:30 ET): What would your reaction be if I told you that Liberty is the team w/ the best SU record in the country? You'd probably be surprised, right? Well, it's the case as the Flames were the first team in the country to get to 10 wins w/o a loss. Tonight they put that unblemished mark on the line against Grand Canyon University. Yesterday saw FIVE unbeatens fall in College Hoops, leaving us w/ just nine left. My view is a couple more are likely to fall this week, this Liberty team being one of them. Take the points here. Looking at Liberty's 10-0 SU record, they've been favored eight times and played two non-board teams. So them being unbeaten was actually expected from the oddsmakers' perspective. The Flames have yet to play anyone of any real substance and their last two opponents - Kentucky Xian and Trinity Baptist - hardly even qualify as real College Basketball teams. While they won those two games by a combined 105 pts, not all the news was good. Guard Caleb Homesley, who is second on the team in scoring and first in assists, suffered a hamstring injury. He may not be able to go tonight. Grand Canyon is just 4-6, but they've stepped up and taken on some tougher teams like Illinois and San Diego State. Earlier this week, the Antelopes earned a 78-67 OT win over Mt St Mary's here at home. This is a holiday tournament w/ GCU as the host, so there's no better way to make an impact than by knocking off one of the nine unbeatens left in College Hoops. I'm just not a believer in Liberty's ability to remain unbeaten. 10* Grand Canyon |
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12-08-19 | Bulls v. Heat -7.5 | Top | 105-110 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* Miami (6:05 ET): The Heat have firmly established themselves among the top six teams in the Eastern Conference. You have to figure Milwaukee is going to finish first. But after that, the order of Miami, Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana is anyone's guess. Something I do feel comfortable in saying is you shouldn't expect Chicago to be entering that discussion anytime soon. The Bulls foolishly thought they were playoff contenders entering this season. But it's been "same old, same ol" as they come into Sunday sporting an 8-15 SU record. Lay the points here. The Bulls lost outright as a favorite their last time out. It was at home to Golden State, one of the worst teams in the league (doesn't that still sound odd to say!). The Bulls let the Warriors shoot 53.5%. Prior to that loss, Chicago had actually won B2B games. But looking at the slew of recent opponents, this is a big step up in class. The Bulls last seven games have all come against losing teams. That includes TWO losses to Golden State. The last time they faced a team with a winning record was November 22nd. It was the Heat, oddly enough. The Bulls lost by eight - at home. At the time, that was Miami's fifth straight win. They've now won 10 of 13 overall. As a favorite, the Heat are 9-2 ATS. They are also 9-0 SU at home, 7-1-1 ATS. Boston and Philadelphia are the only other teams yet to lose at home. It would be one thing if the Heat were just winning at home. But they're outscoring opponents here by an incredible 17.1 PPG! That's several points better than the two other unbeaten teams at home. Keep in mind the Heat the entire way the last time they faced the Bulls. 10* Miami |
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12-07-19 | Suns +10 v. Rockets | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It's okay to be skeptical of the Suns. After all, this is a team that's finished dead last in the Western Conference each of the last three seasons. But they are clearly improved now and what's most impressive about that is they're doing it without the services of the suspended Deandre Ayton, last season #1 overall draft choice. Right now, the Suns project to be a better than .500 team by season's end and have the league's 12th best point differential. If that holds, they could likely snap what is the league's 2nd longest playoff drought. Houston is obviously one of the "big boys" in the Western Conference and their goals are a lot different than those of tonight's opponent. After somewhat of a rough start to this season, the Rockets clearly have gotten their act together as they've won 11 of their last 15 games. James Harden and Russell Westbrook form a deadly scoring combo and the team just won in Toronto Thursday night, something that is not easy to do. But tonight marks just the 4th time this year that the Rockets have been asked to lay double digits. The previous two were against Atlanta and Golden State, the two worst teams in the league. Phoenix is a much higher class opponent. The Suns have not beaten the Rockets since April 2016, losing the last 11 head to head matchups. But all of those came when they were one of the league's bottom-feeders. Tonight is a chance to prove themselves as a legit playoff contender as they look to finish a four-game road trip at 3-1 SU. Not saying Phoenix will win tonight, but they should at least keep it close. This line is several points off from where own power rankings say it should be at. 8* Phoenix |
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12-06-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 127-139 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Two records that are applicable to this matchup make little sense to me. One is that the Thunder are 0-8 ATS the last 8 meetings with the T'wolves. For most of that timeframe, OKC has been the better team. It would be one thing if they were winning and not covering, but they are also 2-6 straight up in those eight games. The other record that has me "scratching my head" is Minnesota's 7-3 SU road record this year. They are only 3-7 SU at home. Normally, you would not see a home vs. road split like that. I'm laying the points here. My guess is you're going to start to see that home vs. road split start to "even out" for Minnesota. In fact, it's already happening as Wednesday night they lost in Dallas, 121-114, even with the Mavs being in the second night of a back to back. Two key players for Minnesota are on the injured list here - Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) and Andrew Wiggins (thumb). The status of the latter seems more questionable for tonight. Monitor the injury situations, but regardless this play stands. The T'Wolves have dropped six of nine with Towns and Wiggins in the lineup and I don't like them here getting such a short number. Everyone expected Oklahoma City to drop precipitously in the standings this year due to losing both Paul George and Russell Westbrook. But they've been surprisingly competitive for HC Billy Donovan. The Thunder have a nearly identical point differential compared to the T'wolves and a slightly better net efficiency rating. So I agree with them being a favorite here. They've won 6 of the 7 times they've been a favorite this year. They are long overdue to cover a spread against Minnesota. 10* Oklahoma City |
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12-05-19 | 76ers v. Wizards +7.5 | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards have definitely had their share of struggles (especially on the defensive end) to start the year, but I don't think the Sixers should be laying this many points. They may be undefeated at home (10-0!), but Philadelphia has gone just 5-6 on the road. They have given up more points than they've scored on the road and while they'll enter tonight on a four-game winning streak, three of those four wins were by six points or less. Take the points. Washington obviously needs to get its act together defensively if it wants to be taken seriously. They are allowing 122.9 points per game, which is easily the most in the league. That would also be the most points allowed per game by any team since the 1980's. Incredibly, there have already been seven games this season where the Wizards scored 120+ pts and LOST! Despite this, they make for a good underdog by averaging 118.9 PPG, third most in the NBA. Bradley Beal leads the way by averaging 28.9 PPG himself. The Wiz are 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. Philadelphia will then obviously need to score a lot to cover the spread tonight. While Washington's defense is definitely questionable, there's been only one time all season that the 76ers have scored 120+ in a game. Over the L5 games, they are averaging just 103.2 PPG. There have been two previous times when Washington has lost three in a row. Both times they won and covered the next time out. Bottom line is they'll score enough to cover the number here. 10* Washington |
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12-04-19 | CS-Northridge v. Portland -4 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:00 ET): Is this line a joke? I'm being serious when asking that question. Cal State Northridge just won its first game, beating Fresno State by a single point (73-72) as seven-point home underdogs. The Matadors had opened the year 0-7 and were 0-5 ATS the first five games. Only one of those losses was by single digits. Portland isn't Gonzaga (or even San Francisco for that matter!), but the WCC contingent should win rather easily at home tonight. Lay the short number. Portland's only loss so far was down at USC where they were a 23-point dog. Since then, they've rattled off five consecutive victories, all of them coming by fairly comfortable margins. Sunday's 65-56 triumph at the expense of Incarnate Word was the first game all year that the Pilots failed to cover. The reason for the ATS loss was a slow start as the Pilots actually trailed at halftime. But they were caught laying a bigger number than they are tonight, so a similar slow start (if that even happens) wouldn't be an issue. Hopefully Portland plays well from start to finish. They certainly should. CS-Northridge is allowing 88.1 PPG and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now. They are 321st in defensive efficiency (there are only 353 D-I schools) and only two teams are allowing more points per game. In other words, the home team should have a big offensive night. At home, the Pilots are 4-0 SU so far, shooting 50.2% themselves while allowing an opposing FG% of just 34.2. Last year, Portland was able to beat CS-Northridge on the road. They should do the same at home. 8* Portland |
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12-04-19 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. DePaul | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-04-19 | Virginia v. Purdue | Top | 40-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
8* Purdue (7:15 ET): This is an interesting number as Purdue opened as the favorite, but the line has swung in Virginia's direction and I think there's a good shot the Hoos go off as the favorite at tipoff. Before you go chastising the oddsmakers for how they set the line, note that Purdue's 4-3 SU record is highly misleading as the three games they lost were all close. Most still consider the Boilermakers to be one of the best teams in America, most notably the KenPom rankings, which have them at 13th! I'll call for them to hand Virginia what would only its 4th loss since the start of last season! Virginia is 7-0 and winning games in its typical fashion. Tony Bennett's defense is allowing a minuscule 40.3 points per game so far, which is impressive even by its yearly standard. They just held Maine to 26 points (for the game!) last week. No one has scored more than 55 and the next highest point total they allowed was 46! But the competition also hasn't exactly been fierce. Note the Cavaliers are actually 0-5 ATS the L5 games because they are only averaging 55.1 PPG themselves. They may not be as stout as Virginia, but Purdue is giving up just 58.4 PPG. They are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. This game figures to be a "rock fight." But don't discount the home court advantage. The Boilermakers have won 34 of their last 36 games in West Lafayette. A 63-60 loss over the weekend to Florida State may have dropped them to 1-5 SU L6 games vs. the ACC, but this is a massive revenge game for a five-point loss in LY's Elite 8 where Virginia had to make a last-second 3-pointer to force OT. This year, the Cavaliers are really struggling from behind the new 3-pt line, shooting just 25%! 8* Purdue |
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12-03-19 | Rutgers +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
10* Rutgers (9:00 ET): Michigan-Louisville isn't the only game I'm playing in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge Tuesday night. While far from being the most marquee game on the slate, Rutgers-Pitt happens to offer the most value. Not sure the home team even deserves to be favored here. Though off to a 6-2 start this year, remember that the Pitt program had fallen on some real "hard times" recently. They were a combined 16-43 SU the previous two seasons. I remain unconvinced that they've taken any real significant steps. Take the points here. Pitt is playing at a very slow pace so far as only 15 teams in the country average a fewer number of possessions per game. HC Jeff Capel, now in his second season, would like to play faster. It just hasn't happened for the Panthers so far. Now they've been mostly winning, so tempo hasn't been an issue. They just held both Kansas State and Northwestern to 59 points in a Thanksgiving Weekend tournament down in Fort Myers. But if Rutgers can push the pace here and score like they have their L2 games, then Pitt is going to be in a lot of trouble here. Remember Pitt did lose as an 18.5-point favorite to Nicholls State here at home earlier in the year. They also lost by 15 to West Virginia, also at home. Rutgers has yet to play a "true" road game and it's only loss was to St. Bonaventure as an 8.5-point neutral court favorite. The Scarlet Knights have topped 80 pts in B2B games and also beat the same SF Austin team that beat Duke. The last game was an 82-57 blowout of UMass. I just don't think Pitt has the scoring to keep up here. 10* Rutgers |
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12-03-19 | Mavs -4 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:35 ET): I'm not sure that the market has truly caught up to how good the Mavericks really are. Beating the Lakers by double digits Sunday night, on the road no less, certainly should have served notice. Yet the line for tonight's game with the middling Pelicans remains far too short. Dallas has won and covered seven of its last eight games, the only loss coming to the Clippers. They own the 2nd best point differential and net efficiency rating in the West. I have them #4 overall in my own power rankings. Lay the short number here. New Orleans comes in as losers of five straight, so that's another reason to be suspect of this short number. The Pelicans were just swept in a home and home by the Thunder. Both losses were close, but the Thunder came in at just 1-8 SU on the road. Dallas is 7-2 SU and ATS away from home so far. Defense has been a big problem so far in the Big Easy as the Pelicans are allowing 118.7 PPG, most in the Western Conference. That's going to be an even bigger problem tonight when facing the league's most efficient offensive team. The Mavericks are currently averaging more than 120 PPG on the road. They just beat a Lakers team that was on a 10-game win streak, so a Pelicans team that's on a five-game losing skid should be no match, especially w/o Zion Williamson. 8* Dallas |
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12-03-19 | Michigan v. Louisville -5 | Top | 43-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Louisville (7:30 ET): Michigan has gone from unranked to #4 in the country. It's not just that the Wolverines were unranked to start the season - they were unranked just last week! But a stunning showing at last week's Battle 4 Atlantis, which included wins over Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga, caused Juwan Howard's team to skyrocket into the Top 25. The move matches the biggest jump in the history of the poll as Kansas also went from unranked to #4 back in 1989. So now is probably as good a time as any to "sell high" on Michigan. While pollsters aren't always a reliable judge, the fact the Maize and Blue started unranked still means something. Sure, we are all guilty of a misread, but I still wouldn't consider the Wolverines a Top 10 team despite what they pulled off last week. Back in the 1st game of the season, I faded them as they failed to cover against Appalachian State. That's one of just two games Michigan hasn't covered this year. Louisville is #1 in the country, by the way! They are the fourth team to occupy the top spot in the season's first five weeks. They moved up to #1 thanks to Duke's stunning loss to Stephen F. Austin last week. Like Michigan, the Cardinals are 7-0. But the difference is that they opened the year ranked #5 in the country. This is Michigan's first "true" road game under Howard, so expect a downturn from the offensive efforts in Atlantis. L'ville is allowing just 36.3% shooting for the year. 8* Louisville |
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12-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors -2 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Despite injuries to multiple key players (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka), the Raptors keep on winning. They're on six-game win streak entering Sunday when they'll host Utah. While the Jazz are a formidable foe, Toronto has posted the league's third best scoring differential and net efficiency rating, so I have little hesitation in laying this short number at home. Plus they could be getting both Ibaka and Lowry back tonight. Utah is in the midst of a tough five-game road trip, one that started w/ losses at Milwaukee and Indiana. They bounced back with a win over lowly Memphis on Friday, but this is now their 4th road game in 7 nights, which isn't exactly a great spot to be in. Especially since the Jazz are just 4-6 SU on the road and averaging 103.1 PPG. Also, Toronto hasn't lost at home this year! They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, winning by an average of almost 15 PPG! Overall, the Raptors are 9-2 ATS when favored this season. They are clearly being undervalued right now because of the injuries. Norman Powell scored a career-high 33 in Friday's 90-83 win over Orlando, so they are getting contributions from a wide variety of players. Pascal Siakam has been another main contributor. Right now, the Raptors are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Utah actually trailed Memphis by 15 at halftime Friday. This line is just too low as the reigning NBA Champs remain an elite team despite injuries and Kawhi Leonard being gone. 10* Toronto |
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11-29-19 | Utah State +4 v. St. Mary's | Top | 73-81 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah State (11:30 ET): I'm not sure I understand this line at all. Utah State is ranked #15 and is one of 31 unbeaten teams left in the country. There really is no objective measure by which one could consider St. Mary's the better team here. The game is at St. Mary's. But last year Utah State won so convincingly on a neutral court (80-63 as 4-point underdogs), the home court advantage doesn't even matter to me. The Aggies have played a weak schedule, save for the win over LSU, but getting to 7-0 w/o stud big man Neemias Queta has to have them happy in Logan. Take the points. I had USU when the beat LSU. Granted, the win required a shocking comeback as the Aggies trailed by as many as 19 points. But that was a quality non-conference win on a neutral court (Jamaica). This is Utah State's first "true" road game of the season. But the Jamaica trip, which also included a 68-59 win over North Texas, should have them ready. St. Mary's has already lost a home game, as 18-point favorites to Winthrop. The Aggies have held five of their seven opponents below 60 points. St. Mary's just yielded a season-high 66 in a win over Lehigh last weekend. So in what promises to be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems optimal. Plus, in its first five games, Utah State had four different leading scorers while averaging over 80 PPG. The win over North Texas on Sunday marked the first time this season that the Aggies didn't score at least 80. I had them in a 32-point win over UTSA where they allowed just 28.6% shooting. I like this team quite a bit and feel they're being undervalued. 10* Utah State |
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11-27-19 | Wolves v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): While Golden State's year-to-year decline may be unlike anything we've ever seen, there are actually TWO Western powers that have fallen off this year. San Antonio is the other and theirs is a case where the oddsmakers have been very slow to react. Betting against the Spurs is very fruitful as their 3-14-1 ATS record happens to be a league worst. Eventually though, you know there will be a point where the market begins to undervalue them. I believe that time is tonight as they are just a small favorite hosting Minnesota. Lay the number here. Despite currently being 7th in the Western Conference, the T'wolves are a slightly below average team from where I sit. They did just clobber the Hawks down in Atlanta, 125-113, as a 4.5-point favorite. But before that they'd dropped four of five - all of those losses coming at home. They actually trailed by 10 at halftime vs. the Hawks. Like the Spurs, there are legit concerns over Minnesota's defense. They also are allowing 115 PPG, which is a high number. It's strange that the T'wolves are 6-2 SU on the road and just 3-5 SU at home. I don't see their winning ways away from home continuing, however. They are just 9-51 SU all-time here in San Antonio, including 11 straight losses. From 11/9 to 11/2, the Spurs were 0-8, the worst ever losing streak under Greg Popovich. They snapped that streak w/ a 111-104 win over the sorry Knicks on Saturday. But then they reverted back to their losing ways Monday against the Lakers. Still, I don't mind that loss and neither did Popovich, who seemed pleased w/ his team's effort against one of the league's best teams. "It was the first game after a long road trip, and that's always tough," said Popovich. "All in all, I was pleased with a lot of things that I saw. We're on the right track." I'll take the coach's word for it. All three Spurs' ATS wins have come as favorites. Minnesota is 0-3-1 ATS off a DD win this year. This is a revenge game for San Antonio as they lost by 15 two weeks ago up in the Twin Cities. 10* San Antonio |
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11-26-19 | Central Michigan +12 v. DePaul | Top | 75-88 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Central Michigan enters this game at 5-1, but hasn't yet beaten an opponent of any real substance. Three of the Chippewas' five wins came against non-board teams while the other two were at the expense of Sam Houston State and Miss Valley State. In their only loss, they were blown out at Minnesota 82-57 as 10-pt underdogs. So it easy to see why the oddsmakers would be a little skeptical of them here at DePaul Tuesday night. But my own personal power rankings indicate the spread for this game should be much lower. Take the points. DePaul is unbeaten at 6-0 w/ wins over Iowa (were 9.5-pt dogs) and most recently, Boston College. Both Power 5 wins came on the road. This is the Blue Demons' best start in 33 seasons. That 1986-87 team started 16-0 en route to 28-3 and a Sweet 16 appearance. Eventually the accomplishments of that season had to be vacated due to NCAA rules violations, but it was still probably the best DePaul team ever. I'm not ready to put this group on par w/ that one. These schools actually just met in March w/ DePaul winning a 1st round CIT matchup 100-86 as 6.5-pt favorites. That game was played right here in Chicago, so as you can see, oddsmakers have definitely boosted the Blue Demons' rating. I remain unconvinced. Central Michigan leads the country in scoring right now (99.7 PPG!) and also turns their opponents over on more than one-quarter of possessions, good for 26th. I know the Chips were held to just 57 by Minnesota, but I don't see that happening again here. They led DePaul 33-21 in the first half of that game last March. One of the Blue Demons' starting guards, Devin Gage, sprained his ankle in practice last week and his status remains in limbo. 10* Central Michigan |
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11-25-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 88-103 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Certainly, the Nikola Vucevic injury matters for the Magic. He is second on the team in scoring and the leading rebounder. Any time you lose a player that averages a "double-double," it hurts - literally and figuratively. PF Aaron Gordon is also out w/ an ankle injury. so the Magic are really hurting down low. But this line seems like an overreaction. We've recently seen oddsmakers do the same thing w/ the Raptors, who are still winning despite injuries. Orlando is a better team than Detroit and I'll take the points. With Vucevic and Gordon both out, one thing the Magic can continue to rely on is their defense. They are allowing just 102.9 points per game, the lowest average in the Eastern Conference. Some of that is owed to the fact they play at the slowest pace in the league, in terms of number of possessions per game. But that's also an excellent "underdog strategy" to adopt (playing slow, that is) and should suit them well here. The Magic have yet to win a road game this year, but you have to figure that first one is coming. They only lost by five at Indiana two nights ago. Detroit isn't exactly playing well right now either. They've lost six of seven w/ the only win coming against a bad Atlanta team. The Pistons were held to 90 points in a blowout loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, a game which Blake Griffin sat out for rest purposes. Griffin is expected back here, but there are other injuries the team is dealing with. At 5-11 SU, the Pistons aren't a team you can really trust as a favorite. So far, they are 2-4 SU and ATS as chalk. They have just three wins this season by more than four points. 8* Orlando |
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11-25-19 | Butler +1.5 v. Missouri | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10* Butler (7:00 ET): In an amazing coincidence, both Butler and Minnesota are coming off wins over Wofford and Morehead State by a combined 37 points. It doesn't stop there, however. Each team beat Wofford by 19 (Butler 80-61, Missouri 75-56) and Morehead State by 18 (Butler 68-50, Missouri 70-52)! Butler won its first two games by a combined 59 pts, beating IUPUI 80-47 and New Orleans 79-53. Missouri won its first two games by a combined 55 points, beating Incarnate Word 82-42 and Northern Kentucky 71-56! The only difference then is that Butler has a win over a major conference team, 64-56 against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite. Missouri lost by five at Xavier as a 5.5-pt underdog. Each of those games saw the ATS result decided by one-half point. So it seems like a pretty even battle tonight in Kansas City as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. But I've got Butler rated as the better team by a few points. I like them as an underdog. Both teams have been excellent defensively. Missouri actually ranks #6 in the country right now in defensive efficiency. No opponent has shot above 38.0% against the Tigers. But four of the five opponents were likely to anyway. Butler has the edge offensively in this matchup. They have four players averaging double figures. Missouri had only two players in double figures in their last game. Through the years, Butler has excelled in these neutral court games, going 77-43 ATS. 10* Butler |
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11-23-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -4 | Top | 86-87 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Memphis (1:00 ET): The Tigers were a team I expected to have on my "overrated" list this year, but the James Wiseman suspension has actually created a situation where they're now underrated. Penny Hardaway's team may have only managed to beat Arkansas Little-Rock by 10 points, but my suspicion is we will be getting an 'A effort' here. Saturday afternoon finds them hosting an unbeaten Ole Miss team that has yet to play a road game. Lay the (very) short number. Ole Miss' four victories this season have all come by double digits. While that may sound impressive, it's less so when you consider the Rebels were favorites of at least 18.5 points in every game. They've looked good defensively, but have yet to face a team as talented as Memphis. The last two seasons have seen the Rebels go just 7-15 in "true" road games. They've also lost 23 of 29 as underdogs. I don't expect Blake Hinson to be that much of a factor today in his season debut. Memphis is a talented team even w/o Wiseman and I expect them to show that here. They did not shoot particularly well against Little Rock, making only 38.7% of their field goal attempts, including 23.8% from three-point range. Yet they still won by 10. I think that bodes well moving forward as you can expect the Tigers to have better shooting nights. This is a chance for them to show that they remain a force, even when Wiseman is sidelined. The team has covered five straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* Memphis |
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11-22-19 | Cavs +10.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-143 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): After a surprisingly decent start to the season (4-5 SU first 10 games), the Cavs have lost five in a row while failing to cover the spread in the last four. There's really nothing "out of the ordinary" to help explain the skid, although they have faced both Philadelphia and Miami twice. Those are two of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, the Cavs face one of the more improved teams out West, Dallas. While it may seem like the underdog is "up against it" here, it's a lot of points they're getting and we've already seen the Mavs lose outright once (to the Knicks) as a favorite of this size. In fact, the Mavs lost twice to the Knicks this year! Take the points. Dallas certainly was NOT upset in its last game as they crushed Golden State by 48. That was easily their biggest MOV of the season and their third straight win/cover to boot. Of course, beating the Warriors doesn't mean what it used to as they've been decimated by injuries It's hard to type this, but the Dubs are the worst team in the league right now! The Mavs led 44-16 by the end of the 1st quarter, Luka Doncic had 33 pts by halftime and the team ended up shooting 57.9% from three-point range. Needless to say, it's highly unlikely that they'll play that well again the rest of the season. A win like that is going to catch the eye of the oddsmakers, however. Thus, Dallas is a DD favorite for just the third time all year. The first was an outright loss to the Knicks. The other was the Golden State game. Those are obviously very different results. Dallas is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite and 0-2 ATS when coming off a DD win though. The Cavs get Tristan Thompson back tonight (sat out last game) and I expect this to go much differently than when the teams met in Cleveland earlier this month. This is all about fading a team that's off a performance it cannot possibly match. 10* Cleveland |
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11-22-19 | Utah State -1.5 v. LSU | Top | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10* Utah State (7:00 ET): This will be my second time taking Utah State this week, although this time the competition is a whole lot stiffer and they're down in Jamaica. On Monday, the Aggies (ranked #14 in the country) blew out an overmatched UTSA team 82-50 to move to 5-0 on the year. Now they face LSU, who will be the most challenging opponent to date. But USU should be up for said challenge. Like I said Monday, this team is absolutely worthy of its ranking. They deserve to be favored by more than this as it's the names of the front of the jerseys giving us value here. LSU drubbed MD-Baltimore County in its last game, 77-50 as a 17.5-pt favorite. But that was a game where the Tigers benefited from some atrocious shooting by the opposition as the Retrievers made only 5 of 33 three-point attempts. They can't rely on that happening again tonight as Utah State is shooting very well (48.7%) on its way to averaging 86 PPG. Now the competition hasn't been that tough for the Aggies so far. But this is still the 1st time since the 1986-87 season that they have scored 80+ points in their first five games. They are 21-10 SU the L3 seasons after scoring 80+ in their previous game. LSU actually trailed UMBC early due to the fact they didn't make a single basket in the first 7:10 of the game! They would eventually overwhelm the Retrievers with their size, but that won't happen here. The Tigers don't shoot well from 3-pt range (28.6%) and turnovers have been an issue so far as well (especially in the loss to VCU). Utah State has had four different players lead the team in scoring these first five games while holding the last four opponents all below 40% shooting. They are the superior side in this one and that's not fully reflected in this line. 10* Utah State |
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11-22-19 | Maryland-Baltimore County -1 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 45-62 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
8* UMBC (2:00 ET): UMBC is basically the "Appalachian State of College Hoops" in the sense that the program will always be associated w/ one famous upset. It was 20 months ago that the Retrievers did the unthinkable as they became the first 16-seed to ever beat a 1-seed, doing so at Virginia's expense. That upset is all the more remarkable considering Virginia bounced back and won the National Championship last season. In case you're wondering how UMBC did last season, they went 21-13 overall (11-5 in the America East), but did not qualify for the NCAA Tourney. This year, the Retrievers have started 4-1. The one loss came Tuesday at LSU, in emphatic fashion as the final score was 77-50. UMBC shot just 31.1% in the contest, basically giving them no chance against a team with superior athletes and size. Though it should be mentioned the Retrievers actually did enjoy an early 16-10 advantage. They held LSU w/o a field goal for the first 7:10 of the game! That they still lost by 27 shows how quickly things fell apart. Now it's on to Jamaica for a tournament and the 1st round opponent is undefeated Eastern Michigan (4-0). Like UMBC, Eastern Michigan started its season by playing several non-DI schools. All were double digit wins (by 13 or more), but nothing can really be ascertained from those. Then the Eagles did pull an upset last Saturday in Denton, beating North Texas 56-51 as a nine-point underdog. But don't let that fool you, UMBC is still the better team here. The Retrievers were 5 of 33 from three-point range against LSU, which won't be happening again, and they do a good job at forcing turnovers. EMU does not have the length of an LSU, which bothered the UMBC shooters so much in the last game. 8* UMBC |
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11-21-19 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State -3.5 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): An outright win here by Charlotte would make it three straight upsets for them and I don't see that happening. The last two games have seen the 49ers beat Davidson 71-58 (+10) and Wake Forest 67-65 (+2), but both of those upsets took place at home. The team's only prior road trip resulted in a five-point loss to James Madison (the season opener). App State has played twice the number of games (6) as had Charlotte and after an ugly performance Monday at UNC-Greensboro, they'll be eager to bounce back. Lay the short number. These two Tar Heel State schools are separated by less than 120 miles and they've met rather regularly through the years. This will be the 1st matchup since 2016, but also the 10th since 2001. Charlotte has taken the previous four, but none of the players from that last meeting are still around and the coaching staffs are different as well. Sunday's win over Wake Forest, which required overtime, makes the 49ers prone to a letdown here. The win snapped a 13-game losing streak to ACC opponents. The team has still lost 22 of its last 27 road games. Appalachian State is battle-tested in its own right as they just played a mini-Tournament in Greensboro. Things didn't end well w/ a dreadful shooting night (29.1 FG%) against the hosts, but the Mountaineers did hold UNC Greensboro to 32.1% shooting as well. Since losing the season opener to Michigan (a game where we cashed plus the points), ASU has not allowed more than 62 pts in any game. Having also dropped their most recent home game (last Friday), there will be no shortage of motivation for the home team tonight. 8* Appalachian State |
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11-21-19 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Washington State -7.5 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* Washington State (7:00 ET): Omaha is not only playing its third straight road game, but also its second in three days and it's a long trip from Dayton, OH (where they were Tuesday) to Pullman, WA. Seeing as the Mavericks have dropped all three road games this year - by an average of 18 PPG - it's pretty difficult to like their chances here tonight. Washington State has shown signs of improvement following the dreadful 11-21 campaign last season. This is one of those games the Cougars will need to take advantage of, as they figure to be an underdog most nights this season. Wazzu's season started w/ a 31-point win over Seattle here in Pullman. Then, it was an ugly shooting night at Santa Clara, a game they lost 70-62. It was a six-minute stretch in the second half - where they were 0 of 8 from the field - that killed their chances there. While the Cougars did not cover against Idaho State in their return home Sunday, they did at least turn in another solid defensive effort, holding the Bengals to 61 points. An injury to PG Jaylen Shead isn't great, but this is arguably the weakest opponent that WSU will face all season. Omaha did not defend well against Dayton, allowing the Flyers to shoot almost 58% for the entire game. It was their second straight game allowing 80 or more points. In addition, the Mavericks have not shot the ball well on the road this year, averaging just 40% from the field. 1st year HC Kyle Smith has a deep team here in Pullman as eight players are averaging double digit minutes. So the Shead injury may not be that big of a deal. CJ Elleby is still the team leader in points at 20.0 per game. The home team certainly has enough to win this game by a comfortable margin. 8* Washington State |
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11-21-19 | Xavier v. Towson +9.5 | Top | 73-51 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
8* Towson (7:00 ET): This is a live dog we've got on our hands Thursday and not just because Xavier comes in at 0-4 ATS. Towson just played Florida really tough (lost by only 6 in Gainesvile) and despite what the pollsters have to say about it, we believe the Gators are a better team than the Musketeers. Xavier might be #18 in the AP Top 25 right now, but they don't even make the Top 45 in our own power rankings. Among the teams currently in the Top 25, the Musketeers appear to be the most overrated. Definitely take the points in this 1st Rd matchup of the Charleston Classic. While Xavier is 0-4 ATS, they are also 4-0 straight up and that's the record the coaching staff cares about. Still, the last two games have been very tight as they beat Missouri by five in overtime and then Missouri State by only three. Though Missouri State is the preseason favorite to win the MVC, it was a game the Musketeers were expected to win by 13.5 points. The Bears' 1-3-1 zone defense gave Xavier all sorts of fits as they could only make 5 of 22 three-point attempts. But three-point woes were not new for this team. They were 3 of 21 from behind the arc against Missouri and are shooting just 20.6% there for the year. Remember the line was moved back this year. Xavier is clearly struggling to adjust. Towson has permitted its first four opponents to shoot just 27.3% from behind the 3-pt arc, so expect those Xavier struggles to continue. Towson led Florida with just 5:46 remaining before going cold from the field. I know the tendency is to view the Gators as a disappointing team right now, but they came into the year ranked #6 in the country! Towson may only be 2-2 SU, but those two losses were by a total of 10 points. They've had a different leading scorer in each game. 8* Towson |
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11-20-19 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Memphis -14.5 | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:00 ET): I have to say, coming into the year, Memphis figured to be more of a fade for me than a take. But with a loss (to Oregon) already on their resume and this whole James Wiseman debacle playing out, might the Tigers actually now be (gasp) underrated? Penny Hardaway's team rebounded nicely from that loss to Oregon by blowing out SWAC member Alcorn State, 102-56. That was their first game w/o Wiseman, who has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. As we saw against Alcorn State, this can be a good team even w/ Wiseman sidelined. Lay the points here. Now Arkansas Little-Rock is no Alcorn State. The Trojans can be a competitive team as they've shown Memphis in the past. Over the last six meetings, ALR is 5-1 ATS even though they've lost every game straight up. The last two years have seen them fall by 8 and 10 points. Both times they were getting 14 from the oddsmakers. Already this year, the Trojans have pulled one upset, winning 67-66 at Missouri State as a 12.5-point dog. They also covered at Illinois State, their only SU loss. But this game is obviously a big step up in class from previous opponents. It should be pointed out that Memphis' loss to Oregon was a de facto road game (played in Portland). So there was no shame in losing there. This is clearly a talented team w/o Wiseman and I expect that to show Wednesday night. Something that Little Rock does NOT do well is shoot the three. They are hitting just 26.9% from behind the arc, which simply won't cut it in a game like this. The only concern w/ Memphis is FT shooting, but they should have a big enough edge here that won't matter. 10* Memphis |
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11-20-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 97-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Well, I tried fading Toronto on Monday and that went about as poorly as possible. What was a close game at halftime quickly turned into a 132-96 blowout of Charlotte. For Orlando, this will be their second try "North of the Border" this year as they lost here 104-95 as a 4.5-pt dog back on October 28th. I'll also go w/ a second try fading the Raptors as their two key injuries (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka) are bound to catch up w/ them. Take the points. After a slow start, the Magic have played much better of late. They come into this game on a three-game winning streak. All three victories have seen the team score at least 111 points as they've now hit triple digits in six straight. That's significant because they failed to score 100 in any of their first seven games this year (2-5 SU). Since then, they're 4-2 SU. Defense has not been an issue for Orlando as they lead the Eastern Conference in points allowed at 101.5 per game. The last time these teams met, the Magic's leading scorer Nikola Vucevic was held to just five points on 1 of 13 shooting. Vucevic has since been named Eastern Conference Player of the Week. He's delivered seven straight double doubles and posted season-highs in both points (30) and rebounds (17) on Sunday vs. Washington. Much will be made of the fact Orlando is 0-4 on the road while Toronto is 5-0 at home. But those injuries to Lowry and Ibaka will take their toll on the Raptors. Against Charlotte, they got career best point totals from two players, OG Anunoby and Terence Davis II. That isn't likely to repeat itself. The Magic have lost five straight to the Raptors going back to LY's 1st round playoff exit. They want revenge. 10* Orlando |
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11-19-19 | New Mexico +1 v. UTEP | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (9:00 ET): This battle of unbeatens finds New Mexico departing campus for the first time, but it won't be a long trip for the Lobos as they head to El Paso to face annual rival UTEP. This will be the fourth season in a row these schools are playing and while the home team is 3-0 SU, it has been the Miners leaving w/ the cash on every occasion. But compared to last year, this number has changed dramatically as UTEP was a 16-pt dog when it covered LY in Albuquerque (lost 84-78). They are 8-1-1 ATS the L10 meetings w/ UNM, but this could be the first time since '99 that they go off as the favorite. New Mexico's four wins have not only all come at home, but they've all been by double digits. The most recent was a 90-80 triumph against McNeese State on Sunday in spite of allowing 50.9% shooting. In the first three games, the Lobos never allowed higher than 44.4% shooting. At the same time, they've scored at least 90 in every contest. In three of the four games, they've had five players finish in double figures. This is a good team. UTEP has held its first three overmatched opponents to an average of 59.0 PPG. They did defeat a New Mexico State team who is awaiting on deck for New Mexico. The Miners were 2.5-pt home underdogs in that game, which they won 65-50. Their other two wins came against non-DI opponents. There has been one common opponent for these two teams, that being Eastern New Mexico, whom New Mexico defeated by 21 and UTEP beat by 14. I simply feel that the better team here is the one that opened as an underdog. Don't be surprised if this number "jumps the fence" prior to tipoff. 10* New Mexico |
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11-18-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Utah State -19 | Top | 50-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
8* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State deserves to be ranked #17 in the country as they have dominated all four of their games so far. This was an NCAA Tournament team last year as they won 28 games and the Mountain West. Four of the five starters from that team are back for 2019-20. Keep in mind that sophomore center Neemias Queta has yet to suit up this season due to a knee injury. The Aggies have had a different leading scorer in every game thus far. UTSA's start to the year couldn't be more opposite of what we've seen from Utah State. The Roadrunners are 0-4 and have failed to cover every game. Every loss has been by double digits and what's really shocking is that they were favored to win three of the four games. They haven't played since last Sunday when they lost at home to Delaware, 91-79. So you know UTSA is going to be ready coming into this one. The problem is they simply aren't on Utah State's level. There is a chance Quete could play here (listed as questionable), but even if he doesn't, the Aggies have shown they can do just fine w/o him. They've scored at least 81 pts in every game, all of them having taken place here in Logan. Since only beating Montana State by eight in the season opener, they've won by 55, 41 and 27 points. Still I'm not sure if the oddsmakers have properly accounted for how good this team is just yet. UTSA's shooting has been exceptionally poor thus far and USU is allowing an overall FG% of just 35.0. On the flip side, UTSA has also really struggled to defend and USU has shot 55% of better twice in the L3 games. 8* Utah State |
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11-18-19 | Hornets +9 v. Raptors | Top | 96-132 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Generous number here for Hornets team that has won two in a row. Sure, both wins were razor-thin as they beat the Pistons by three and the Knicks by one. But that doesn't mean they can't stick w/ the defending NBA Champs, who are severely hampered by injuries right now, the most notable being the one to Kyle Lowry's thumb that has him out indefinitely. Serge Ibaka is also out w/ an ankle injury. Without those two key players, the Raptors should not be favored by this many points. Not much was expected from Charlotte this season due to Kemba Walker leaving for Boston. So them being 6-7 SU is somewhat of a surprise. All six wins have come by 7 pts or less, four of those by 3 pts or less. So eventually they will regress. But with the exception of a few games, they've been competitive with everybody. The L3 games have all been decided in the closing seconds. They're a solid 7-4 ATS as underdogs and 5-1 ATS on the road. This play is probably more of a fade on Toronto than anything else. The Raptors, specifically Pascal Siakam, showed signs of wearing down in Saturday's 110-102 loss to the Mavericks. Siakam, who has had to carry the scoring burden w/ Lowry out, scored just 15 pts on 6 of 24 shooting in that last game. On average, Raptors' home games have been pretty high scoring so far. But they probably won't maintain the offensive efficiency due to the injuries. At the defensive end, giving up 112.5 PPG at home is concerning. 8* Charlotte |
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11-17-19 | Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:35 ET): This West Coast swing is not going well for the Hawks as they've lost three of the first four games. Things went from bad to worse last night as they gave up 150 points to the Clippers. The road trip ends tonight, but at least the Hawks don't have to go anywhere as they're back at Staples Center, this time to face the Lakers. Given how LeBron James and company have looked so far, this isn't exactly what I'd call a "great spot" for the visitors. But they are getting a lot of points against a team that doesn't have that many double digit wins this year. Take the points. For what it's worth, sharp money seemed like it was on the Hawks last night. The number was bet down considerably as they closed as nine-point dogs after opening +13. Obviously, that was a bad read (we didn't take them), but it does show that savvy bettors do seem to have more faith in this team than the oddsmakers. Chalk last night up to "one of those games" as the Hawks shot horrifically (37.8%) while allowing the Clippers to shoot 53.8% overall and 51.5% from three-point range. They probably won't have a worse loss all season. The Lakers come in red hot as they've gone 10-1 their L11 games. But they could only beat Sacramento by two on Friday, a game they were favored to win by 10.5 points. LA trailed by 10 after the first quarter and from there it was a scramble just to earn a SU win. The Kings went undermanned into that game, so there is hope for the Hawks here. Their stock could not possibly be lower coming off a loss like the one they suffered last night, so we will "buy low" and take the points. 10* Atlanta |
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11-16-19 | Bucks -6 v. Pacers | Top | 102-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): It appears as if the oddsmakers won't be letting off the Bucks "quite as easy" this year. Last season, the Bucks made the "quantum leap" into the NBA's elite by winning 60 regular season games and posting the best ATS record in the league. By any account, this season is off to a successful start as the team is 8-3 SU and won six of its last seven games while leading the league in scoring (120.3 PPG). But they're 0-4 ATS the L4 games. Look for that streak to end tonight as the Bucks catch Indiana playing in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points. Indiana lost to Houston last night, 111-102, despite limiting the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting, including 14 of 46 from three-point range. The Pacers' own shooting was their undoing as they made just 24.2% from behind the three-point line. It was only the second loss in nine games for Indiana, the other coming by two points (in OT) at Charlotte. But my guess is they won't do as good a job at defending the three-point line tonight as they did against the Rockets. That means trouble when facing a team as prolific as Milwaukee. The Bucks are 4th in the league in three-point makes (13.9 per game) and 2nd in attempts (41.2 per game). Overall, they are shooting 47.3% from the floor and rank 2nd in offensive efficiency. They're also a very respectable 7th in defensive efficiency after leading the league in that department last season. The Bucks are rested and seven of their eight wins have been by at least five points. 10* Milwaukee |
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11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Creighton | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
10* La Tech (6:00 ET): Off to a 2-0 start, Louisiana Tech is about to be tested for the 1st time as they pay a visit to Creighton. The Bulldogs have won both games by 33+ points and are averaging 90.0 PPG on better than 50% shooting. They held Texas A&M-CC and Wiley College to just 31% from the floor. While such wins really don't tell you a lot about a team, I feel that the contingent from Ruston makes for a LIVE underdog tonight. They are catching Creighton in a bad spot. Take the points. Creighton just lost to Michigan on Tuesday, 79-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They did lead at halftime, but couldn't slow down the Wolverines in the 2nd half. The Bluejays ended up allowing a 56.6 FG% for the game and that simply isn't going to cut it against a La Tech that's shot the lights out so far. Guarding the three-point line wasn't as easy against Michigan as it was vs. Kennesaw State (who went 3 for 20) and that could be a sign of things to come here. It's not easy winning here in Omaha where Creighton has gone 30-8 SU its L38 games. But the Bluejays are also 0-3 ATS the L3 times they've been asked to lay between 9.5 and 12 points on their own floor. Incredibly, they are also just 3 for 10 from FT line in two games! They don't have a single starter taller than 6'7". Despite grabbing 18 offensive rebounds against Michigan, they got only 13 pts off them, a shocking lack of efficiency. La Tech is an explosive offensive team that is great at forcing turnovers and this game will be a nice way to make it up to the fine folks in Ruston still angry about last night's loss on the football field. 10* La Tech |
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11-15-19 | Spurs v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 109-111 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): These teams seem to be going in different directions of late. The Spurs actually opened 3-0, but failed to cover the spread in all three games. That was a pretty clear signal that they might be overrated and sure enough, they have since lost six of eight. Three straight losses where they failed to cover the spread every time now have them at 2-9 ATS on the year, which is the league's worst record at the betting window. Unlike previous editions under HC Greg Popovich, this Spurs team is terrible defensively as it ranks 24th in efficiency. Lay the points w/ Orlando here. The Magic's season started out poorly as they lost six of their first eight games and failed to break 100 points in any of the first seven. But they've since collected a couple wins, including an impressive 112-97 victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. That was their second highest scoring game of the year as seven players finished in double figures. Meanwhile, defense has not been an issue. They are 1st in the NBA in points allowed, giving up just 99.1 PPG. They are even stingier here at home where the average drops to 96.3 PPG allowed. I look for Orlando to take advantage of San Antonio's recent defensive decline tonight. The Spurs' most recent loss, which was at Minnesota Wednesday night, marked the third time this season they've allowed 120+ points. It was also the second time they've allowed that many in the last three games. The last five San Antonio opponents have combined to shoot 50.2% from the field. So, if the Magic can take advantage of that and play their trademark defense, this should be a pretty easy victory. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference. 10* Orlando |
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11-14-19 | Nets v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 93-101 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:35 ET): With Kyrie Irving's status in limbo (questionable w/ shoulder injury), this is a good time to play against the already struggling Nets. They'll definitely be w/o Caris LeVert, who has a right thumb sprain. Tonight's game in Denver comes on the heels of Brooklyn blowing a double digit lead in Utah two nights ago, a game they ended up losing 119-114. This has simply not been a good team thus far and they're playing their 4th consecutive game out West in a seven-day span. Lay the points. Denver is also in off a loss, although theirs was less concerning to me. Now the numbers do indicate a poor defensive effort took place against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Hawks scored 125 points w/ 42 of them coming from Trae Young (his season-high) and shot 53% overall, including 15 of 34 (44.1%) from 3-pt range. It was the most points allowed by the Nuggets this season and it came in a game they initially led 12-0. With one of the stronger home court advantages in the league, I expect nothing short of a full bounce back effort by Michael Malone's club. Brooklyn has just one road win all year and it came at the start of this trip, in Portland. Since then, they've been blitzed by Phoenix (allowed 138 pts) and blew the DD lead in Utah. The Nets have been just terrible defensively as they allow 121.4 PPG, second most in the league. This does not seem like the spot where they will fix that issue. Then to make matters worse, the offense is set to suffer w/o LeVert and possibly Irving. Prior to the Atlanta game, the Nuggets had held four straight opponents under 100 points. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn is 26th. 8* Denver |
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11-13-19 | Southern Utah v. BYU -12.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
10* BYU (9:00 ET): BYU lost as a four-point favorite in its last game, falling to San Diego State 76-71 on Saturday. That same day, Southern Utah pulled off what will likely end up being the highlight of their season, a 79-78 upset of Nebraska where they rallied back from a double digit deficit in the second half. Those results set us up very nicely for a play on BYU here. Yes, the Cougars are a little short-handed right now (Yoeli Childs suspended). But they still led SDSU for much of the second half. It was a game they still should have won. Look for them to take out their frustrations tonight. Lay the points. Southern Utah trailed Nebraska by 11 at halftime and was down by as many as 14 early in the second half. The Thunderbirds made their shocking comeback thanks to some terrible Nebraska shooting down the stretch. The Cornhuskers finished the game at 37.0% overall and 19.2% from three-point range. Surprisingly, SUU was even worse from behind the arc. But they still earned their 1st win over a power conference program since 2003. They needed double overtime to do so as Cameron Oluyitan sank a 10-ft jumper w/ just two seconds left to give his team the upset win (were 7-pt underdogs). Though the schools have not met since 2007, BYU has dominated this in-state rivalry, winning 9 straight times from 99-07. Eight of the nine wins have been by double digits. As mentioned above, while Southern Utah had to come from behind to earn its latest victory, BYU "came from ahead" in its latest loss. Despite trailing at halftime, the Cougars were up eight w/ just under 13 minutes remaining. They were up seven w/ just over six minutes left. Playing at home, it's a game they should have won. Though part of the Maui Invitational, this game is being played in Provo and I don't see BYU suffering B2B home defeats. 10* BYU |
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11-13-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | Top | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): Despite being 8-1 SU and 1st in the Eastern Conference, Boston appears quite vulnerable going into tonight's home game vs. Washington. Winners of eight in a row, the Celtics have been "bit" by the injury bug. Gordon Hayward is out indefinitely after breaking his hand against the Spurs over the weekend. Big man Daniel Theis will join him on the bench w/ a sprained finger. Kemba Walker, who is the team's leading scorer, had to leave the last game w/ a case of whiplash. While Walker has been cleared to play tonight, I'm still taking the points in this matchup. If Washington can't compete here, then it's going to be a very LONG season. Honestly, it'll probably be a long season in the Nation's capital regardless, but this is a spot where the team should be ready to go. Coming off B2B losses, the Wizards have had the last four days off. That's a lot of time in between games, even with the "new" NBA schedule. The only other time this season that the Wiz took the floor w/ three or more days was the insane game vs. Houston (159-158 loss) where they did cover. They are 7-4 SU/ATS the L3 season w/ 3+ days rest. Though Walker seems like he's going to play, the Celtics are still short-handed and eventually that's going to catch up to them. The team shot 42.9% from three-point range against Dallas Monday, a percentage I don't believe is sustainable for them. Then again, Jayson Tatum shot 1 for 18 from the field in that game! But it was Walker bailing them out by scoring 24 of his team-high 29 pts in the 2nd half. They can't succeed like that every game though. Washington's leading scorer Bradley Beal had an off-night vs. Cleveland on Friday, missing 13 of 21 shots. He'll shoot better here. Despite being 2-6 SU, the Wizards are only being outscored by 4.1 PPG. 8* Washington |
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11-12-19 | New Mexico State -3 v. UTEP | Top | 50-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* New Mexico State (8:00 ET): This "border war" rounds out today's deep dive. Las Cruces and El Paso aren't too far away on the map, but I feel the schools hailing from those corresponding cities are a lot further apart than what the oddsmakers seem to think. New Mexico State has beaten UTEP nine straight times, including a four-point win here in El Paso last season. The number is lower for this year's visit and I'm not sure why as the teams are about the same. Lay the points. New Mexico State could not have had an easier opening game. Faced w/ an opponent that had zero chance, they quickly put Western New Mexico out of its misery. Now I realize that is a "nothing team" the Aggies beat, but the numbers were pretty staggering. The game started w/ 16-0 run. NMSU led 52-16 at the half and was up by as many as 52 in an eventual 92-46 victory. All 10 players that took the court scored. They allowed 28.6% shooting. Let's not forget that this New Mexico State team won 30 games last season and took Auburn to the wire (lost by 1) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Five of its five losses were by six points or less! They have four starters back and figure to run through the WAC yet again. As for UTEP, it's 93-70 win over NM Highlands was not nearly as impressive as what NMSU did in its opener. The Miners actually turned the ball over 20 times and led by only nine w/ just over eight minutes remaining in the 2H. I think it's shocking this number is so low as the favorite is a really good team. 8* New Mexico State |
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11-12-19 | Chicago State +19.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 34-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Chicago State (8:00 ET): I'm digging deep on the board tonight. Chicago State is a team that has averaged 94 points in its first two games, albeit not against the stiffest of competition. The Cougars opened with a 103-60 rout of Judson College, a NAIA school, a game in which they shot the lights out (56.3%!) and led by 20 at halftime. They then lost to Loyola (MD), 98-85 in the home opener. This time, it was the Cougars on the wrong end of some sharpshooting as Loyola made 60% of its field goal attempts in the 1st half. Expect better defense from them tonight as I'll take the points. This is obviously a big number for Eastern Illinois to lay in the wake of an 0-2 start. Now it was expected the Panthers would start 0-2 as they opened w/ road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin. They did not do well at Texas Tech, losing 85-60, but were surprisingly competitive in Madison, losing by only 13 as 19-point underdogs. EIU was actually within three w/ just nine minutes to play and what makes that even more impressive is they were -17 in points at the free throw line for the game. That discrepancy basically determined the outcome of the game. While Eastern Illinois won't be facing that kind of free throw discrepancy tonight at home, I don't see a clear path to winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here. I know they faced two tough defensive teams, but a 56.0 PPG scoring average isn't exactly what you want to see from this large of a favorite. Especially when matched up w/ an underdog that you know can put the ball in the basket. Something to keep in mind is that Chicago State beat Eastern Illinois last year for their ONLY win over a D-I opponent the entire year (team finished 3-29). They are MUCH better this year. 8* Chicago State |
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11-12-19 | UL - Lafayette +18 v. TCU | Top | 65-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Let's continue the "deep dive" into tonight's College Hoops card w/ a play on UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns are hoping for the same kind of success that the school's football team is having at the betting window this year (football team is 8-1 ATS, tied for best ATS record in the country w/ Ohio St). So far the basketball team is 2-0 SU, but neither game was lined. They defeated Loyola (NO) and McNeese State at home, by 28 and 5 points respectively. Take the points here as this number is way too high. TCU has played just one game and it was against Southwestern (TX), also a non-board opponent. The Horned Frogs won by 21 (83-62), but don't expect many more wins like that this season out of Ft. Worth. This team was picked to finish last in the Big 12. While leading scorer Desmond Bane is back, the next top four scorers from LY's team all departed. Bane did go for 26 against Southwestern, a D-III opponent, but it was shockingly just a three-point game shortly after halftime. So the final score there was a little misleading. Again, I won't be betting on TCU to win many games by large margins this year. UL Lafayette is picked to finish 5th in the Sun Belt. They too lost a lot of talent from LY's squad, but did bring in a key transfer (Jalen Johnson) from St. Louis. Also, the team's leading returning scorer, Cedric Russell, went for 22 pts against McNeese State. Giving the Ragin Cajuns hope here is the fact TCU was actually outrebounded in the opening game and allowed nearly 40% three-point shooting. 8* UL Lafayette |
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11-11-19 | Kent State v. Towson | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Towson (7:00 ET): Towson has played two games thus far, the last one being a glorified scrimmage, which they won 100-31 against D-III Bryn Athyn. As you can imagine, the numbers from that game were fairly outrageous for the Tigers as they took a 59-15 lead into halftime and held the opposition to 24% shooting for the game, including 0 for 12 on three-point attempts! While little can be derived from that kind of victory, there's no denying that Towson's first win (over George Washington) had some merit. The Tigers won that one 72-58, easily covering the 5.5-pt spread. I'll lay the points here in the first ever meeting w/ Kent State. Kent State has played just once so far and it was a non-lined affair vs. a D-III school. While they did go on to beat Hiram College 97-58, note that it was only a nine-point game at halftime, which is a little troubling. In the second half, the Golden Flashes did catch fire from three-point range. They ended up making 13 three-pointers in the game and it also helped that Hiram turned the ball over 21 times. Towson certainly isn't going to be as generous this evening though and this being a road game, I think it's smart to be a little leery of what Kent State can really do in this spot. Towson has been able to show off its depth in the first two games. The bench accounted for 65 of the 100 points last game as starters basically sat the entire 2H. Also, the defense has been outstanding so far w/ the two opponents shooting just 31% overall and 20% from 3-pt range. Kent State relied heavily on the 3-pt shot against Hiram, but was only 43% overall from the field, which isn't a good sign here. While Towson was NOT one of the five teams in the CAA that earned a first place vote in the preseason poll, they are nevertheless dangerous, especially w/ this infusion of young talent. Kent State is more experienced, but still is a middle of the road MAC team. The home court edge matters big time here as the Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS the L2 seasons as a road dog of 3 pts or less. 10* Towson |
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11-10-19 | Illinois v. Arizona -6.5 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Any concern #21 Arizona may have over impending NCAA sanctions weren't apparent Wednesday night when they completely wiped the floor w/ Northern Arizona. Obviously, it figured to be a lopsided affair going in. But the Wildcats easily covered the 23.5-point spread, winning 91-52 for HC Sean Miller. Freshman Zeke Nnaji led the way w/ 20 points as Arizona dominated down low. Nnaji is one of seven newcomers to the Arizona program this year, so it's no wonder the issues surrounding the program aren't affecting the current roster. Lay the points. This will be the third game for Illinois. But unlike what Arizona did in its first game, the Fighting Illini have failed to overwhelm two lesser opponents. A pair of eight point wins over Nicholls State and Grand Canyon really aren't all that impressive when you think about it and then needed OT to beat Nicholls State at home. The +56 rebounding margin the Illini has enjoyed so far won't be present here. Also, playing a third game in less than a week really isn't the best setup for the first true test of the season is it? Especially when its a second road game in three nights and out on the West Coast. Arizona is simply deeper and better than Illinois. They are also better rested. Not only did Illinois need OT to beat Nicholls State in the opener, they only led Grand Canyon by four at halftime on Friday. Asking them to "keep up" in Tucson seems like a tall order considering the Illini have won just 3 of their previous 23 road games (includes the win at Grand Canyon)! 10* Arizona |
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11-09-19 | Austin Peay v. Western Kentucky -11.5 | Top | 75-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (4:00 ET): Both teams won their opening game. Western Kentucky prevailed 76-64 over Tennessee Tech here in Bowling Green, but failed to cover as 19-point favorites. Austin Peay was a 110-67 winner over Oakland City, but do not make the mistake of reading too much into that result. Oakland City is a Division II school that had no chance of winning. Austin Peay did win 22 games last season, but did not make the postseason. They bring back just one starter from that team, Terry Taylor, who scored 21 points in the opener. That's right about where his output was a season ago (20.5 PPG). But the rest of the team being as prolific as it was vs. Oakland City is not something that should be counted upon regularly. The Governors were an insane 41 of 59 on 2-pt attempts Tuesday. That probably won't happen again this season. The size advantage they enjoyed in that first game simply won't be present here. Western Kentucky could be considered the favorite in C-USA this season. They bring back a majority of the team that won 20 games last season. Though they did not cover the large spread in the opening game, they did lead by double digits for the entirety of the second half. They didn't even shoot that well from three-point range, so that's something to look for here. The Hilltoppers were a strong 21-13 overall at the betting window last season. This number ought to be higher, so we'll lay it. 8* Western Kentucky |
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11-09-19 | Southern Utah v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 79-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): I have to admit that when I first glanced at this line, I thought someone from Nebraska had to be injured. I know Southern Utah is a "program on the rise," but this number is way too short. The game is in Lincoln after all! The reason for the short line is that the Cornhuskers are in off an embarrassing loss in their opener where they fell 66-47 to UC Riverside as 15.5-pt favorites. It was an ice cold shooting night in HC Fred Hoiberg's debut. That's not going to happen again and you should look to take advantage of this line, which is way too low. Nebraska shot just 29.1% from the floor Tuesday vs. UC Riverside, a shocking performance indeed. They were 6 of 26 from three-point range w/ three of their top shooters going a collective 1 for 11. Incredibly, as a team, they missed 35 of their final 44 shots overall. That is unconscionable! Even the free throw line was unkind as Nebraska went 9 for 19 there. As embarrassing a setback as that may have been, you have to chalk it up to "one of those nights." I don't think it's indicative of what we'll see out of Lincoln under Hoiberg. Southern Utah smoked Bethesda in its first game, winning 110-66. But that's a non-board team and this is a big step up travelling to face an opponent out of the Big 10. Last year was Southern Utah's best finish in ages as they went 17-17 and won a game in the CIT. But there's still a big gap between them and Nebraska. Key here is that SUU likes to run, just like Nebraska does, so it's a better matchup for the favorite than UC Riverside was. Also, the Thunderbirds lack the size UC Riverside had. Nebraska allowed just 61.2 PPG in non-conference play a season ago. Defense wasn't the issue on Tuesday though. It'll be the obvious offensive improvement that carries them to a cover here. 10* Nebraska |
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11-08-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami-FL -11 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Coming off a 13-point home loss to Louisville, you've got to figure "The U" will be pretty fired up here. FAU seems like an ideal matchup as the 'Canes are 23-1 SU against them all-time, including a 20-point win as 14-pt favorites LY. The Owls are definitely a step down in class from L'ville, the #5 ranked team in the country. Though Miami initially led 16-9 Tuesday night, little else went right after that. They closed the game on a 16-2 run to make the final score at least respectable. But they did trail by as many as 32. Still, they are the play here. Lay the number. Miami is much deeper and more experienced team than they were a season ago when they finished just 14-18, ending a three-year NCAA Tournament run. Defensively, I expect a much better effort here than what we saw Tuesday. HC Jim Larranaga preached defense all off-season, yet his team allowed L'ville to shoot 55% from the field, which is terribly disappointing. But again, that's a much better team that what they'll be facing here. Last year, the Hurricanes held FAU to 33% shooting and were up 23 by halftime. FAU played a Division II team (Flagler) in its opening game, so little can be drawn from that. The Owls scored 92 points with some red hot shooting, but also gave up 81 points and had 20 turnovers, which are not good signs. In last year's game, Miami had its way on the interior, making 20 of 29 two-point shots! The Canes did shoot well in the 2H vs. L'ville, including 50% from three-point range. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS following a SU loss while FAU is 8-20 ATS off its L28 SU wins. 10* Miami FL |
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11-07-19 | Thunder +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET): San Antonio is just 1-6 against the spread, which is the worst mark in the league. What makes that ATS record so interesting is that the team is also 4-3 SU. The Spurs were exactly expected to be world-beaters this season, yet have been favored in almost every game. They've lost the last two, however, including 108-100 at Atlanta Tuesday where they were a six-point road favorite. The only game the Spurs covered so far was against Golden State, who is a mess right now. Even coming off an upset loss, I just don't want any part of this Spurs team right now, especially laying points. Take the dog in this Western Conference matchup. The Thunder are only 3-4 SU, but have a better scoring differential than the Spurs. They are coming off consecutive victories at home, over New Orleans and Orlando, where they did a solid job defensively. They currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Utah and the Lakers. Long-time followers know how much I value the defensive efficiency metric. So even though little is expected from OKC this year, my view is they are an undervalued team right now. Three of their four losses have been by five points or less. They've allowed only one opponent to score more than 104 pts so far and that was Houston, who leads the Western Conference in PPG. The Thunder have lost the last four times they've ventured into San Antonio, also going 0-4 ATS. That seems a little strange as the teams have generally been pretty competitive the last couple years. Obviously, there's been a mass exodus of talent in OKC, but the same can be said for San Antonio. The Spurs have shot poorly the L2 games (not surprising since they lost both) and don't look for them to turn it around here as the Thunder lead the league in opposing FG% (40.3) and 3-point % (27.3). San Antonio's defense has slipped this year as they've yet to hold an opponent below 100 points. 10* Oklahoma City. |
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11-06-19 | Long Beach State v. UCLA -16.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
8* UCLA (11:00 ET): The Mick Cronin era is set to begin at UCLA. This once proud program has descended into almost being irrelevant, but Cronin should get them back to the top of the Pac 12. Cronin did an excellent job the L13 seasons in Cincinnati, who was perenially one of the top defensive teams in the country. He inherits 13 returning players from the previous regime. The first game is against Long Beach State, a team the Bruins have pretty much dominated over the years. They are 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) the L7 meetings including a 91-80 win to open last season. Lay the points here in Cronin's debut. LBSU is known for taking on a challenging non-conference schedule under HC Dan Monson. But last year saw them drop 10 of 14 non-conf games while giving up nearly 80 PPG. This year could be a lot uglier and not because of the defense. The top five scorers from LY's team are all gone. No returning player averaged more than 7.2 PPG last season. No one else on this current roster averaged more than 4.0 PPG. The 49ers have finished under .500 five of the last six seasons and have won just 15 games each of the L3 seasons. It could be a long season. UCLA was terrible defensively last season, but I project them to be one of the most improved teams in the country in that department under Cronin's guidance. This was a very good hire. Last year's team had all sorts of distractions and Steve Alford got fired 13 games into the season. Don't forget the program had to deal w/ the Ball family two years ago. It's a more focused group coming into 2019 and Cronin brought in three four-star recruits. Even if Prince Ali's ankle doesn't allow him to play here, the Bruins have enough talent on hand to win big. Cronin is looking to make a statement here. 8* UCLA |
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11-06-19 | Wolves v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 121-137 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Minnesota was able to split the two games Karl-Anthony Towns missed due to suspension (got into a fight w/ Joel Embiid). They won in Washington, 131-109, but then faltered at home against Milwaukee, losing 134-106. Towns is back in the lineup Wednesday night as the T'wolves make the trip to Memphis. While the Grizzlies' season is not exactly off to a "rousing start" (their record is 1-5), they've generally been competitive. This is their third straight home game while Minnesota has had to bounce back & forth between home and the road. Take the points as the T'wolves are overvalued in Towns' return. The Grizzlies' last two home games were against Phoenix and Houston. They lost by nine to the Suns, a game which they led early. Playing against a desperate Rockets team (that had been humiliated the night prior), they lost by only seven. The only times this team has been blown out this year have been on the road. They're 1-3 at home w/ all three losses coming by single digits. One bright spot has been the play of rookie Ja Morant, who leads the team in points and assists. He had 23 and 6 against Houston Monday. We should see Morant and the rest of the Grizzlies shoot better tonight against a T'wolves team that just gave up 134 points and is not noted for its defense. It'll be interesting to see how Towns return affects Andrew Wiggins, who was the primary scorer for Minnesota the L2 games. While the T'wolves have opened 3-1 SU on the road, two of the wins were against Washington and Charlotte (both bad) and the other by a single point over Brooklyn. Their only other win was a very favorable spot against Miami, who was playing the second game of a back to back. I thought the T'wolves were somewhat exposed in losses to the Sixers and Bucks, which came by 22 and 28 points respectively. This isn't a team I'd want to LAY points with on the road. 10* Memphis |
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11-05-19 | Celtics v. Cavs +6 | Top | 119-113 | Push | 0 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavaliers were blown out Sunday night, losing here at home to Dallas 131-111. I think they'll fare better tonight against Boston. The Cavs were 2-0 SU at home before that loss to the Mavs. They have shot demonstrably better here at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (formerly Quicken Loans Arena), making 47.2% of their field goal attempts while averaging 112.7 points per game. They've scored at least 110 in every home game thus far. Anything close to a similar effort tonight should result in an easy cover. Take the points. Boston moved on from Kyrie Irving in the offseason, but still expects to be a top contender in the Eastern Conference. They enter this game at 4-1 SU, their only loss coming in the season opener to Philadelphia, which was a road game. However, the last two wins have NOT been pretty w/ the Celtics having to rally from a 19-pt deficit against Milwaukee and then needing a last second shot to beat the Knicks 104-102. The Celtics haven't shot very well so far as their FG% is 41.7, which is 27th overall. Kemba Walker, Irving's replacement, has really carried the team w/ three straight games of 32+ pts. The Cavs are definitely rebuilding under 1st year HC John Beilein. But both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both playing well. Love had 29 points and eight rebounds Sunday while Thompson posted his 5th double-double of the season. This team won't be the pushover it was last season, it's first after losing LeBron James for a second time. The Celtics might be 4-1, but they've hardly been dominant in getting to that record, so taking the points here seems smart. 8* Cleveland |
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11-05-19 | Appalachian State +18 v. Michigan | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): There's an obvious comment to be made here w/ Michigan opening its season against Appalachian State. It was a little more than 12 years ago, over at "The Big House," that the Wolverines' football team laid a historic egg against ASU (then a FCS program) in what still ranks as one of the greatest upsets in the history of that particular sport. Of course, that also happened to be Lloyd Carr's final season in Ann Arbor. It's a new era of Michigan hoops w/ Juwan Howard taking over for John Beilein, who went to the NBA to the coach Cleveland. I don't see Howard losing his HC debut, but the Maize and Blue aren't as good as they've been in past years. Take the points. Howard was of course part of the famed "Fab Five" that took Michigan - and the entire College Basketball world - by storm in the early 90's. But he has zero head coaching experience and is laying a big number tonight. The Wolverines lost their top three scorers from a year ago and freshman Franz Wagner broke his wrist, which will cause him to miss 4-6 weeks. Michigan played a very sophisticated offense under Beilein. Under Howard, it looks like they'll "play faster." But a recent scrimmage against Saginaw Valley State saw them shoot just 9 of 31 from three-point range and at one point, they went seven minutes w/o making a shot. My guess is Michigan isn't going to be as stout defensively either now that Beilein has moved on. Appalachian State went 11-21 SU last season, it's eighth straight losing campaign. So a coaching change was made as Dustin Kerns comes over after a successful run at Presbyterian. Kerns inherits a good deal of returning talent, led by Justin Forrest, who averaged 16.2 PPG last season. He's one of three starters back. The Mountaineers definitely didn't have issues scoring last season as they averaged 79.9 PPG, which was 33rd in the country. The issue was at the other end. But if Michigan struggles to shoot like they did vs. Saginaw Valley State, that issue should be less of a problem. Plus, I expect Kerns to improve the team's overall defense. 8* Appalachian State |
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11-04-19 | Bucks v. Wolves +6.5 | Top | 134-106 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The T'wolves won't have Karl-Anthony Towns tonight (suspended), but they didn't have him on Saturday either and still managed to win 131-109. Granted, that was against the sorry Wizards. But here the oddsmakers are giving them some help in the form of a generous number at home. The T'Wolves' 4-1 start is made more impressive when you consider they've only gotten to play one home game. That lone home date saw them defeat a good Miami team 116-109. That is still Miami's only loss this season. Take the points here. Milwaukee will show up in the Twin Cities off B2B impressive performances. After blowing out Orlando 123-91 on Friday, the Bucks led by as many as 26 against Toronto Saturday and won 115-105. Thanks to a low-scoring 4Q, I was able to cash an Under bet on that Saturday matchup. The Bucks are now 4-2 SU/ATS on the year and could easily be 6-0 SU as they blew DD leads in both losses. That being said, this is the most points they've been asked to lay away from home thus far and it comes against a team that's playing pretty well right now. This is kind of a letdown spot for Milwaukee as Saturday was a big revenge game for LY's Eastern Conference Finals. Six players finished in double figures for Minnesota on Saturday, led by Andrew Wiggins' 21 pts. That's a good sign as they again play w/o Towns, whose suspension came about for fighting w/ Joel Embiid. Something that makes Minnesota's 4-1 start even more impressive is that they have not fared well from behind the three-point line. Opponents are hitting nearly 40% against them for the year. But I don't think that will continue. They should also shoot better from three-point range tonight than they did against Miami (13 for 45). The T'wolves are a surprising 57-28 SU at home since the start of the 2017-18 season. While they are 2-8 SU/ATS L10 meetings w/ Milwaukee, this is a good value. 8* Minnesota |
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11-01-19 | Lakers v. Mavs +2 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Lakers are 3-1, having won three in a row, all as home favorites. They actually own the league's top scoring differential right now at +11.8 per game. But it's worth mentioning that their last two wins have come against Memphis and Charlotte, who are two of the league's worst teams. Tonight also marks the Lakers' first game away from Staples Center. Remember they opened the season w/ a game against the Clippers where they were the designated "road team." The Lakers remain a very "public" team and this short number on the road absolutely STINKS. Take the points. Dallas is also 3-1 w/ its lone defeat coming by just two points (at home vs. Portland). The Mavs were expected to improve and contend for a playoff spot this year, so the 3-1 start is a good sign. They are off arguably their most impressive win to date, a 109-106 upset of Denver as six-point road dogs. They won that game despite their two top players - Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic combining for just 22 points on 7 of 22 shooting. But SEVEN other Mavs finished in double figures to help pick up the slack. Expect the two stars to both bounce back this evening and the dropoff from the role players shouldn't be that severe as this is a home game (reserves typically play better at home). Anthony Davis had 40 points and 20 rebounds vs. Memphis in just three quarters of play. But again, the Grizzlies are not a formidable opponent. Davis also appeared to be bothered by a lingering shoulder issue in that game. He was 26 of 27 from the free throw line in that game, which accounted for most of his scoring. I suspect we won't be seeing him at the charity stripe that much tonight. Of course, we should probably mention LeBron James and that Kyle Kuzma is expected to make his season debut tonight. But I wouldn't expect too much from Kuzma in his first game back. I still have reservations about the Lakers defensively and James' teams had the worst ATS record in the league the L2 years. 8* Dallas |
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11-01-19 | Bucks v. Magic +5 | Top | 123-91 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic are a team we've been tracking all week. While they came up short for us in Monday's loss to the Raptors, they immediately bounced back w/ a win and cover Wednesday night against the Knicks. Admittedly, beating the Knicks wasn't as easy as it looked. The Magic were down at halftime before really putting down the clamps defensively. They held the Knicks to just 39 pts in the 2H. No team is playing at a slower pace than the Magic, whose games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now. I'm counting on that slow pace and defense to be factor tonight as Orlando is a home dog for the 1st time this season. Take the points. Milwaukee won 60 games last year, finishing first in the East. They are the overwhelming favorite to finish first in the Conference again this year. But I suspect they're not going to win as many games this year as they did in 2018. They made a large jump from 44 to 60 (wins) last year based on a new offensive approach under HC Mike Budenholzer (more threes!) and Giannis Antetokounmpo emerging as one of the league's top players. The book is now out on the Bucks though. The "Greek Freak" (Antetokounmpo) is being hampered w/ foul trouble so far this year and the team has twice lost a game in which it held a lead of 16+ points. Defensively, they are giving up 117.5 PPG. Orlando is 2-0 at home this year. Granted, those wins were against the Cavs and Knicks. But considering how poorly the Magic have shot the ball so far, it's a wonder they've won any games at all! They are averaging 95.7 PPG on 39.5% shooting, including 28.8% from three-point range. Every one of those numbers ranks last in the league, except 3-pt shooting, which is 29th (2nd worst). You have to imagine the shooting is set to improve and with Milwaukee struggling defensively, tonight should be the night Orlando breaks out offensively. The Magic have no problems defensively, ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed at 93.8 PPG and 3rd in efficiency. I smell an "upset" here. 8* Orlando |
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10-30-19 | Knicks v. Magic -9 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): So the Magic are 0-3 ATS to start the season, which is a disappointment obviously, but perhaps also a reflection of the fact there are actual expectations for this team in 2019-20. That hasn't been the case for some time. But w/ LY's playoff breakthrough and the Eastern Conference being so wide-open this year, a team with this kind of continuity (returned 85% of LY's minutes played) should do well. A 1-2 start isn't cause for any kind concern, but after B2B losses, the Magic could really use an easy win tonight. Fortunately, they'll be playing the Knicks! Lay the points. The Knicks had the worst record in the league last season (17-65), setting expectations rather low in the Big Apple. Sure enough, the team opened the year by losing three straight. They did beat Chicago on Monday, but that required a pretty big comeback and the game was at home. The Knicks trailed by 18 at the end of the 1st quarter and were down 7 entering the 4Q. Their first lead came in the final two minutes as Bobby Portis sunk a go-ahead 3-pointer to cap one of the best games of his career (28 points). A player like Portis can't be counted on every night though. In fact, he'd scored just 18 pts total in the first three games. There were only three times all of last season where NY won B2B games, by the way. Orlando has yet to score 100 pts in a game this year, which is a problem. But look for them to get on track offensively tonight. The Knicks aren't a great defensive team obviously. Before beating Chicago, they'd allowed 113+ points in every game. Orlando's only win came here at home where they beat a Cleveland team (95-84) that's pretty comparable to the Knicks. Both losses were on the road. While the offense has struggled, the Magic do rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, which is a good sign My call is that a season-high in points scored is all but a lock tonight and the strong defensive play continues. The Magic are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Knicks. 10* Orlando |
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10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat -8 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Sunday saw the Heat fail in the second game of a back to back, losing to Minnesota 116-109 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But it's not as if they weren't in the game. Despite a terrible 1st quarter (outscored 36-23), Miami led by 7 entering the 4th quarter. But then the 4Q was even worse than 1st and they ended up not covering. I was happy to see that as we'd taken the T'wolves. But now its time for the Heat to capitalize on an opponent being in the 2nd game of a B2B. It's Atlanta, who lost by 2 last night. We'll capitalize too. Lay the number. The Hawks did cover last night and are now 3-0 ATS on the year. We had them in the opener at Detroit where they won outright (by 17 pts!). That was followed by a 103-99 win over Orlando in the home opener. Trae Young has been very good in the early going, but was held to just six points in the second half vs. Philadelphia last night. That was a much different finish than the Orlando game when he scored the Hawks' final eight points. Monday's result has to be tough to swallow for Young and the rest of the Hawks seeing as they never trailed by more than four and were up 13 in the first half. Much like Miami on Sunday, it's a tough spot for the road team here. Saturday saw Miami rally from 21 down in the second half to win at Milwaukee. I certainly didn't like their chances Sunday in Minnesota given the circumstance, but the Heat played better than expected. They've won their only other home game this season, 120-101 over Memphis, and now are expected to get Jimmy Butler back in the starting lineup. That the Heat didn't start poorly w/o Butler is a good sign. Miami is a team many feel can win the Southeast Division and I'm not going to disagree w/ that (it's between them and Orlando). Atlanta has won just 21 of its last 63 road games and is 7-20 SU in the second game of a back to back. 10* Miami |
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10-28-19 | Magic +5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Projecting this year's NBA season proved to be a bit more challenging than normal due to all the player movement in the offseason. In the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee is the consensus top team w/ Boston and Philly probably most people's choices as the top challengers. After that, it gets rather murky. Here we have two teams wanting to be in the mix, Orlando and Toronto. The Raptors are obviously defending NBA Champs, but lost Kawhi Leonard. The Magic are interesting. While there was so much player movement in the offseason, they return about as many of LY's minutes played as any team in the East. Though it's an 0-2 ATS start for them this year, we'll back them plus the points Monday. Orlando returns 85% of last season's total minutes played. The only time w/ greater continuity is Denver. The Magic looked good in their season opener, holding Cleveland to 85 points on 37.1% shooting, but then fell victim to a hot-shooting night by Atlanta's Trae Young (went for 39 pts) in a 103-99 loss to the Hawks Saturday night. The Magic really didn't help themselves by shooting just 35.4% in that game, including 16.1% from three-point range (5 of 31). They should easily improve upon those numbers here. There's also a little bit of the revenge factor in play for Orlando tonight as they were the first team eliminated by Toronto in year's playoffs, losing the series 4-1. The one win did come here in Toronto though. The Raptors are going to have to offset the loss of Leonard somehow. So far, it's been Pascal Siakam, who has scored 86 points in three games. But I don't see that continuing. Siakam's production fell drastically in the third game, down to 19 pts, though it hardly mattered as the Raptors still beat the Bulls 108-84. But this is a team that could easily be 1-2 right now if not for a come from behind, OT victory over New Orleans on Opening Night. Toronto likely will be unable to maintain its current 39.8% shooting from 3-pt range. I like this Orlando team, especially in the underdog role. After they were favorites in the first two games, it's time to back them here. 10* Orlando |
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10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Normally, the T’wolves might not be favored by this many points over the Heat. But this one is all about the situation. Saturday saw Miami rally back from 21 down to defeat Milwaukee on the road. I just don’t think they are going to have much left in the tank as they arrive in the Twin Cities Sunday. The Heat were very fortunate yesterday in that the Bucks missed 24 of their final 27 three-point attempts and Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled out. Time to fade the Heat in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points. Minnesota, like Miami, is 2-0 straight up and against the spread. In the opener, they were able to do what the Bucks couldn’t on Saturday and that’s survive a big second half rally. Despite Kyrie Irving scoring 50 points, Minnesota was able to beat Brooklyn 127-126 in overtime. They followed that up w/ a convincing win over lowly Charlotte, 121-99 as a five-point favorite. It’s important to note that both wins came on the road. Karl Anthony-Towns has been a beast so far, averaging 36.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. Remember that Miami is playing short-handed here w/o Jimmy Butler, Dion Waiters and Udonis Haslem. That would be bad in any normal scenario, but it’s brutal for a second night of a B2B. Will Minnesota ultimately be a playoff team in 2020? Maybe not. But they are well positioned to start the season a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread. 8* Minnesota |
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10-25-19 | Suns +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns are going to need to learn to win w/o the services of Deandre Ayton because the former #1 overall draft pick is now suspended for 25 games due to failing a drug test. Ayton did have 18 pts and 14 rebounds on 9 of 14 shooting in the team's opening night win over Sacramento. Despite winning by 29, Phoenix actually trailed at halftime in that game. But they poured it on in the second half, outscoring the Kings 70-36. The encouraging sign is that they got contributions from a variety of players, so Ayton's absence may be overblown, at least in the short-term. We're taking the points w/ the Suns tonight in Denver as this looks to be a classic oddsmakers' overreaction. The Nuggets also opened their season w/ a win, 108-100 at Portland as 1.5-pt favorites. Last season was a big breakthrough for Denver as they finished second overall in the Western Conference. Wednesday's opener was a big deal to them as it was a bit of revenge for being eliminated by Portland in the second round of last year's playoffs. I expect Denver to regress some in 2019-20 as it's not likely that they'll be able to match LY's amazing 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. There were actually three other teams out West besides top seed Golden State that finished w/ better regular season point differentials than the Nuggets. We don't have them finishing top four in the Conference this year. This is a lot of points to lay, especially this early in the season. Again, you get the sense that oddsmakers had to react to the Ayton suspension. But it seems like an overreaction on this end. He'll be missed, but the Suns seem to be improved this year even w/o Ayton. His production cannot be replaced by one player obviously, but collectively the scoring slack can be picked up. One of the most encouraging signs from the first game was Phoenix holding Sacramento to 39.0% shooting. Ayton was actually a bit of a defensive liability and his replacement (Aron Baynes) is an upgrade on that end of the floor. Take the points here. 10* Phoenix |
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10-24-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pistons | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Last night saw the Pistons go into Indiana, without Blake Griffin, and upset the Pacers 119-110 as seven-point underdogs. Now Indiana was w/o Victor Oladipo as well. Griffin is out indefinitely w/ a hamstring injury. So let's see how Detroit handles his absence in the second game of a back to back. Maybe you're right to not expect much from the Hawks this year, but they should be improved after the doldrums of the past couple seasons. Plus they are rested here. Take the points. Atlanta is one of just four teams yet to play a game. This is a young team, save for Vince Carter (who is ironically the oldest player in the league), with 12 players at 25 years of age or younger. They added TWO lottery picks w/ De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. After winning only 24 games in 2017-18 and 29 last season, the Hawks should improve more this year. They have covered the last three times they've played here in Detroit. They were also 23-17 ATS as an away dog last season. The Pistons typically have NOT been a good shooting team the last couple seasons, but did make 52.6% of their field goal attempts last night. Expect poorer shooting tonight. They were trailing going into the 4Q last night, but Luke Kennard made a trio of three-pointers down the stretch, finshing w/ 30 pts off the bench. For the game, Kennard made a career-best six three-pointers. Andre Drummond, who played 41 minutes, had 32 pts and 23 rebounds. Neither Drummond nor Kennard are likely to replicate those kind of numbers tonight. Indiana also lost T.J. Warren down the stretch last night, which was another key factor in the final result. 10* Atlanta |
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10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Anyone who bought into the preseason hype of LeBron James in LA paid dearly last season as the Lakers were the second worst in the league ATS, finishing 34-46-2. Only the Knicks did a (slightly) worse job at the betting window. Now Anthony Davis is in LA, meaning the hype train has gained even MORE steam. But the Lakers aren’t even the best team in the city right now. The Clippers added Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and are one of the favorites to win the NBA Title. Remember - unlike the Lakers - the Clippers actually made the playoffs last season. The better team is getting points on Opening Night. Take the points. George will not play Tuesday as he is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. But what was the deepest bench in the league adding Leonard to the mix is more than enough to compensate. We’ve got the Clippers finishing no worse than third in the Western Conference this year as it will probably be either them or Houston finishing on top. The Lakers won’t be any better than fourth in our projections. The Clippers were 49-38-1 ATS last season, which was one of the league’s better records at the pay window. They are being undervalued here. It remains to be seen how well James and Davis will mesh. James missed a career-high 27 games last year and his defense began to slip rather dramatically. The Lakers aren’t nearly as deep as the Clippers either. This line jumping the fence (Clippers opened as favorites) is a pretty big deal as the Lakers were just 17-26-2 ATS as chalk last season. DeMarcus Cousins proved to be a worthless signing as he’s out for the year. Kyle Kuzma also won’t play tonight. 8* LA Clippers |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -2.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): I just can't see the Warriors losing this game. Not after what happened in Game 5. I'm not referring to the Kevin Durant injury, of course, though that should not be minimized. Rather, I'm talking about how Golden State saved its season AFTER the Durant injury, "stealing" the game by a score of 106-105. Another reason I can't see the Dubs losing here is the fact Toronto won the first two games played here in Oakland. Them going 3-0 SU at Oracle Arena just seems far-fetched. I'll gladly lay the short number here as I'm concerned about the Raptors' psyche. The loss of Durant is obviously significant. The Warriors lost three of the first four Finals games without him (though they were previously 5-0 w/o him since the initial injury). But the Game 5 comeback did not require his presence. It was the "Splash Brothers" (Curry & Thompson) combining to hit three consecutive three-pointers (after being down six) late in the fourth quarter. I've said previously that if there's one team that could overcome an injury to a player the caliber of Durant, it would be the talent-rich Warriors. They still have four former All-Stars on this roster, one of them a former league MVP himself (Curry). Durant did have 11 pts in 12 mins in Game 5, but after the injury took place, Golden State still expanded its lead to as many as 14 points. (By the way, it should also be pointed out that Kevon Looney reaggravated his injury & is also done for the series). Now they are back at home where they don't lose often - let alone three times in a row. That's the key for me as this one seems destined to go to a Game 7. Toronto was minutes away from its first ever NBA Title and now has to go to a hostile environment instead. I admit that this is far more of a "gut" play than a technical one, something I don't do often. But it's the right call here. 10* Golden State |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): While it's the Warriors' fifth straight year in the Finals, this particular edition appears to be in no way as dominant as the previous four (three of which won at all). After taking a 123-109 loss in Game 3 (at home!), the Dubs have now trailed by double digits in each of their last six games. They've actually won four of those, but no Kevin Durant and no Klay Thompson proved too big of an obstacle to overcome Wednesday night. Thankfully, Thompson is going to be back for Game 4. Off a loss, I'm laying the short number w/ Golden State at home. Few gave them a chance of winning this series, but the Raptors are definitely making everyone sit up and take notice. While it hasn't been quite the same stifling defense that we saw in the first three rounds (held Orlando, Philadelphia and Milwaukee under 100 PPG), Toronto has held Golden State to exactly 109 pts in all three games, which is 8.4 PPG under its season average. Offensively, the Raptors have hit on all cylinders in two of three games (should be easy to figure out which two!). Game 3 saw them shoot 52.4% overall, their highest FG% in any game this postseason. All five starters scored at least 17 points, including Danny Green going 6 of 10 from three-point range. I just can't envision a similar offensive showing from the Raptors here. Meanwhile, Golden State should certainly improve offensively w/ Thompson back in the fold. They shot just 39.6% from the floor in Game 3, their LOWEST field goal percentage in any game this postseason. Without Durant, the Dubs had managed just fine, losing only one time (Game 1 in Toronto). Steph Curry has shown he's more than capable of picking up the scoring slack, which should be assumed considering he's a former league MVP himself. Curry just went for 47 points in Game 3, his career playoff high. You have to assume Golden State will be a lot better on both ends of the floor here. They are 8-3 ATS following a SU loss going back to the regular season. Not since X-Mas have they been off a DD loss and lost again their next time out. 10* Golden State |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -2 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): Purveyors of the famed "zig zag theory" (bet the ATS loser of the previous game) may be quick to hop on the Warriors here, but allow me to pump the brakes on that notion right off that. Isn't a big part of the zig zag theory anti-public perception (i.e. buy low on a team that just lost)? My read here is that most are going to expect Golden State to bounce back from the 118-109 loss in Game 1. But for all the same reasons I liked the Raptors in the series, I like them again here. They're again undervalued. They play great defense. Kevin Durant is still out. So lay the short number w/ the home team. Golden State was off a long layoff going into Game 1 as they swept Portland in the Western Conference Finals. But that was a highly misleading sweep to say the least. In three of the four games, they trailed an inferior Blazers squad by double digits. Before that series, no team in NBA Playoff history had ever come back to win TWO straight when trailing by that many. The loss of Durant has become an underrated factor because the Warriors were able to sweep that last series (and because they closed out Houston w/o his services). I'd like to now reiterate something I said in my Game 1 analysis & that's the Dubs have been one of the WORST teams to bet on this season. Only the Lakers & Knicks had worse regular season ATS records. Something else worth reiterating is that Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs. They held the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. They just held the Bucks, who were the only team to average more points per game in the regular season than the Warriors, to 102 pts or less in regulation each of the last four games. Golden State was obviously held under its season average in Game 1. 10* Toronto |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
10* Toronto (9:05 ET): Despite being w/o Kevin Durant for (at least) Game 1, Golden State enters the NBA Finals as a prohibitive favorite for a fifth consecutive year. Of course, twice they made it here w/o Durant's services, but one of those was their only Finals loss. Unlike the previous four years, the Warriors will not be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (no more LeBron!). Instead, it will be the Toronto Raptors. Interestingly enough, this will also be the 1st time the Dubs do NOT have home court advantage in the NBA Finals. Despite being prohibitive favorites to win this series, they have been bet to the underdog role for Gm 1 after opening as an ever-so slight favorite. I completely agree w/ the line move and will take the Raptors here as my *10* Game of the Year! Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs, holding the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. They just held the Bucks, who were the only team to average more points per game in the regular season than the Warriors, to 102 pts or less in regulation each of the last four games. So I do believe they are capable of limiting the Durant-less Dubs offensively here at home. Golden State certainly has the edge in rest coming into the Finals. They last played a game on May 20th, giving them a full nine days off heading into Game 1. But that brings up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Their turnarounds were much quicker between the last two series. Then there is the matter that the Warriors trailed by DOUBLE DIGITS in each of the last three games against Portland. No team in NBA history had ever rallied from B2B 13+ pt deficits to win in the playoffs, let alone three straight times. Toronto has Kawhi Leonard, who has been a man possessed this postseason, averaging 31.2 PPG on better than 50% shooting. Golden State had one of the worst ATS records in the league in the regular season and was 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Raptors. 10* Toronto |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): The Raptors are now leading this series, three games to two, and quite frankly deserve to be up. Aside from a poor performance in Game 2 at Milwaukee, they have outplayed the Bucks. They easily could have won Game 1 (but blew the lead late). Games 3 & 4 here in Toronto were basically wire to wire victories (even though the former went to double overtime). Then in Game 5, they gave the Bucks a taste of their own medicine in rallying to steal a win. That upset was the 1st SU win by a road team in the ECF and now has Toronto knocking on the door of their first ever NBA Finals appearance. I'll lay the short number w/ them at home. That the Raptors were able to win on the road - despite shooting only 36.9% from the floor - is a minor miracle. They came back from an early double digit deficit, led by Kawhi Leonard's 35 points, to win 105-99 as a 7.5-pt underdog. Now they're back home where they are 7-2 SU in the playoffs. But what's been most impressive of all about the Raptors has been their defense. They're allowing just 99.9 PPG in the playoffs, on 41.2% shooting. The last three games have seen them hold the Bucks, the league's top scoring team from the regular season, to 102 pts or less in regulation. Even more impressive is that no opponent has scored more than 104 in regulation here in Toronto during the playoffs. I had the Under in Game 5 and called for the Raptors' bench to cool significantly after the hot shooting from Game 4. Well, now that they're back "North of the Border," I expect the bench to be a factor again. Admittedly, it is tough to pick the Bucks' season to end, but the Game 5 loss was a crusher. That the Raptors have shot barely above 40% in the series and have a chance to close things out is a bad sign for Milwaukee. I expect another offensive game from Toronto similar to Game 4. 10* Toronto |
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05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 102 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have had the Under in Game 3, which was an all-time bad beat as it took not one, but TWO overtimes to send the game Over the total. Toronto was definitely happy w/ the result, however, as the 118-112 win enabled them to "get back" in the series. Now only down 2-1 in the series (as opposed to the 3-0 "death knell"), a win here by the Raptors would reduce this Eastern Conference Finals to a best of three affair. I cashed the home dog last night in a "must-win" scenario and while they didn't win, they were covering virtually wire to wire. I'll take the points again tonight. Had it not been for OT, Game 3 would have marked the seventh straight home game that Toronto held its opponent below 100 pts. That's a pretty remarkable accomplishment in the modern NBA. For the entire playoffs, they are holding teams to 99.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting. At home, the PPG allowed average drops to 95.3. The most pts they've allowed in regulation for any home playoff game is 104. Coming into this series, they'd allowed 100+ pts in just 3 of 12 playoff games and two of those were on the road. The Raptors were definitely outclassed in Game 2 at Milwaukee, but led most of the way in both Games 1 and 3. Game 1 was an infamous chokejob, similar to what we saw from Portland throughout the Western Conference Finals. Toronto led that game by as many as 13 and was up seven entering the 4th quarter. Game 3 did see them outscored in each of the final three quarters, however, the Bucks led just twice in the entire game: 2-0 and then 105-103 in double overtime. I feel the Raptors should be favored in this game (as they were in Game 3). 8* Toronto |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): It's all come down to this for the Blazers, who must win tonight or their season is over. Obviously, their chances of coming back to take this series currently rank somewhere between slim and none. But considering they've led each of the last two games by double digits at halftime, I won't hesitate in backing them at home. Especially now that they are an underdog, which was not the case for Game 3. Also, Portland is 12-1 ATS at home the L2 seasons when playing w/ revenge for a double digit loss (lost Game 3 by 11 points). Take the points here. Coming into this series, no team in NBA history had ever won B2B playoff games in which it trailed by more than 13 points. That's changed now w/ the Warriors doing just that in both Games 2 and 3. Game 2 was bad enough as Portland blew an eight-point lead w/ just over four minutes to go (and they led by 15 at half). But Game 3 may have been even worse as the Blazers led that game by as many as 18 in the first half, at home, and not only didn't win, but they didn't cover either. It was a double digit loss (110-99) where they were held to a measly 33 points after halftime. Portland averages 118 PPG at home for the year, so we should a bounce back performance offensively tonight, at least relative to the second half disaster from Saturday. They scored 66 points in the first half, so they're certainly capable of scoring against this Warriors team, which by the way remains w/o both Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins. Sure, the Warriors still have three other All Stars on the roster, a luxury almost unheard of in the history of this league. But they are also 1-7 ATS their L8 games following an ATS win and also 19-42-2 ATS when off a double digit victory. 10* Portland |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): Needless to say, the Blazers have to have this game. They blew a "golden" (pun intended!) opportunity to steal one on the road, losing Game 2 114-111 after leading almost the whole way. It was in many ways reminiscent of what happened to Toronto in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Now we know how the follow-up for the Raptors went (they were blown out), but I think it'll be different for Portland as they are at home for Game 3 and in a virtual "must-win" situation. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss in the playoffs, including covering Game 2. Lay the short number here. Portland was up 15 at halftime in Game 2 and looked well on their way to pulling the outright upset. Even w/ just over four minutes to go in the game, they were up eight and that was after the Warriors came back to tie things up after three quarters. But that's when the wheels came off as Golden State ended the game on a 14-3 run. As disappointing a loss as it was, I fully expect the Blazers to play better here at home. They didn't really shoot the ball well in either of the first two games w/ Damian Lillard being the biggest offender at just 10 of 28 overall from the field. At home, the Blazers average 118.1 PPG, which is well up from the 109.9 PPG they average on the road. When Kevin Durant was lost to injury, I said you should expect Steph Curry to pick up the scoring load for the Warriors. That's exactly what has happened w/ the former league MVP scoring 30+ points in each of the L3 games. But now that they're playing on the road, don't be surprised to see Golden State struggle a bit more to score. By the way, Portland has not lost three straight games since early December. Since that time, they are 6-0 SU off B2B losses, covering the spread five times. Lillard is going to play better here and the Blazers will win. 10* Portland |
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05-17-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): Each of the last two nights in the NBA playoffs, we've seen the underdog lose (straight up) in the most painful way possible, that being giving away the lead late after losing most of the game. Portland was up by 15 at halftime last night, but at least they still ended up covering (+7.5). Toronto couldn't even do that, even after leading almost the entirety of Game 1 here in Milwaukee. The Raptors, specifically Kawhi Leonard, wilted late and didn't score a single basket over the final four minutes. The end result was them losing 108-100 as a 6.5-pt underdog. As the final seconds of Game 1 ticked away, the announcers were not shy about "shoveling some dirt" on the Raptors' proverbial grave. "This is like losing two games," they exclaimed. Reggie Miller and Chris Webber are of course both pretty bad and I think the demise of Toronto has been greatly exaggerated here. Again, the did lead almost the entire way in Game 1. We're not necessarily asking them to win tonight, they only need to cover. Given how good they have been defensively in the playoffs (only 96.9 PPG allowed), covering the spread is more than reasonable here. What makes the Game 1 result all the more infuriating for the Raptors is that Kyle Lowry played very well, scoring 30 points on 10 of 15 shooting (made seven three-pointers). But Leonard faded badly down the stretch (fatigue?) w/ only two points in the fourth quarter (still ended up w/ a team-high 31). Pascal Siakam (15 pts) was the only other Raptor in double figures, so it'll need to be more of a "team effort" this time around. Again, definitely possible and make note of the fact Toronto is 10-1 ATS this season when coming off 3 or more ATS losses. They have not lost B2B games SU since late March. 10* Toronto |
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05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): This will be just the second time this postseason that the Raptors have been underdogs. Given the kind of defense we've seen from them in the first two rounds, this would seem to be a nice value. The only previous time they were getting points in these playoffs was Game 4 of the Philadelphia series (+2), a contest they actually opened as the slight favorite and wound up winning outright, 101-96. I had them there. While I won't guarantee an outright victory this time around, taking the points is definitely the way to go in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. As stated above, the defense we're seeing from the Raptors in the playoffs has been pretty remarkable. They are giving up just 96 PPG on 41.3% shooting. Now they will be facing the top scoring team in the league now, but I think Toronto will be up to the challenge. Just twice in the last 11 games have the Raptors given up over 100 points. While both exceptions came on the road (at Philadelphia), don't think for a second that Toronto won't be able to score here as well. They average 113.1 PPG and while they hit that average only once in the Philly series, don't be surprised at a breakout offensive performance tonight. Milwaukee had a much easier time than expected w/ Boston in Round 2. That has them as the overwhelming favorite to win this series. But, make no mistake, the Raptors are a better team than the dysfunctional Celtics. The Bucks also lost Game 1 to Boston on this court. That's their only loss of the postseason, but still. There is a question of "rest vs. rust" here w/ Milwaukee having been off for so long (last played exactly one week ago). And the Bucks' track record is not good in this spot as they are just 5-14-1 ATS the L20 times they've played on three or more days rest. 10* Toronto |
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05-14-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Portland (9:05 ET): Considering the Blazers were able to win twice in Denver (who had the league's best home record), there's no reason to doubt they can't win a game at Golden State. Plus the Warriors are playing without their best player Kevin Durant. Now we certainly can't discount the embarrassment of riches the Dubs enjoy, talent-wise. They still have Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. But this was a team that was certainly susceptible to losing at home in the regular season and they lost twice here in the 1st round to the Clippers. They are only 18-28-1 ATS in all home games for the year. Take the points in Game 1. Golden State won all three home games in the Houston series, but those three victories were by a total of 15 points and none by greater than six. When they went into Game 6 at Houston w/o Durant, there was a pretty clear overadjustment by the oddsmakers in terms of both the side and total. It was the most points the Warriors were getting for any playoff game under HC Steve Kerr and they took advantage by pulling an outright upset. But, here, it appears as if they (meaning the oddsmakers) have overcompensated the "other way" in that there seems as if there's been NO adjustment for Durant's absence. Portland did win here once in the regular season, right after Christmas, 110-109 as nine-point underdogs (in OT). Overall, they split the four regular season meetings. The Warriors were at "full strength" in all four of those games as well. Both losses found Golden State coming in extra motivated. They were on a four-game losing streak (longest of the Kerr-era) heading into the season's first meeting and then it was the second game of a home and home (Portland won the first) the other time they beat the Blazers. No such additional motivation is present here. If anything, I expect Portland to be the more motivated side. 8* Portland |
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05-12-19 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): If you're a little surprised that I'd be taking the 76ers in this winner take all situation, well, join the club. Given how I'd played this series so far (only taking Toronto when playing the side), I wouldn't have thought I'd be on the underdog in Game 7 either. But over the course of the series, it's become pretty clear to me that these teams are more evenly matched than I thought, even though Philly was destroyed here (by 36 pts!) in Game 5. They responded by taking Game 6 (at home), 112-101. Only two of the six games so far have been decided by single digits, but I think this one will be. Take the points. I've talked about the Raptors' defense being exceptional in previous analysis. But Philadelphia has managed to shoot well against them in two of the past four games. Granted, both were at home where they average a far higher number of points per game. But I think a big key here is going to be Joel Embiid's health. He definitely appeared over his illness in Game 6 where he scored 17 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. Jimmy Butler led all Sixers' scorers w/ 25 points and also had eight rebounds and six assists. While Toronto's Kawhi Leonard has been the best player in the series - for either team - his teammates have not always been there to support him. In Game 6, Pascal Siakam was the only other Raptor w/ more than 13 points. The starting five combined to go 7 of 28 from three-point range. While it certainly can be argued that we'll see improvement from the "supporting cast" here at home in Game 7, I don't think it'll be enough to cover the generous pointspread. Philly has its "demons" here in Toronto (lost 15 of last 16 visits), but I believe can keep this one close, if not pull the outright upset. 10* Philadelphia |
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05-09-19 | Raptors -2 v. 76ers | Top | 101-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors completely annihilated the 76ers in Game 5, winning by 36 points, thus setting up a situation where they need just one more win to advance. I took Toronto in both Games 4 and 5, feeling they were pretty clearly the better team here, and will take them again here to finish off Philadelphia's season. While the Sixers are obviously a stronger team here at home, the spread is now basically a non-factor w/ Toronto being on the road. Also, the Raptors have really owned this Atlantic Division rivalry through the years, winning 24 of the last 29 meetings. Lay the short number here. Fortunately, to make up for Philadelphia's likely large increase in offense from the last game, Toronto can score too. Especially when the ball is in Kawhi Leonard's hands. In this series, Leonard is averaging 34.6 points to go along w/ 9.8 rebounds per game. He's shooting at an incredible 58.3% clip. Keep in mind that Game 5 was the first time in the series Leonard did NOT score at least 33 points. He didn't have to though as his teammates shot 50% from the field. Remember that the Raptors are a top six team in offensive efficiency and average 113.4 PPG. The defense Toronto has played, not just in this series, but the entire playoffs has been pretty remarkable. They are giving up just 95.0 PPG and have allowed fewer than 100 pts in all but two games. One of the two where they failed to hold the opponent under 100 was Game 3 here in Philly, their worst defensive effort of the entire postseason. But other than that one game, the highest field goal percentage allowed was 42.0! Opponents are barely shooting 40% against them in the playoffs. I thought Philly was a pretty weak 3-seed coming into the playoffs (were actually 5th in point differential in the East) and the Raptors are just better. The series ends tonight. 8* Toronto |
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05-08-19 | Celtics +9 v. Bucks | Top | 91-116 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): What a disastrous three-game stretch this has been for the Celtics, particularly Kyrie Irving. Over those L3 games, Irving has shot the ball at a disastrous 31% clip (19 of 62). Those 43 misses are his most over a three-game stretch in the playoffs in Irving's entire career. Not surprisingly then, Boston has lost all three games. He's also seemingly alienating teammates in the process. I think most are of the opinion that the Celtics' season is all but over, but I'm seeing a lot of value in this pointspread. Remember that Boston won Game 1 here in Milwaukee. Take the points. It hasn't been only Irving struggling to make shots from the Boston side. His teammates have provided little in the way in relief. Game 4 saw the Celtics shoot 37.8% overall, including 9 of 41 from three-point range. On uncontested jumpers alone, the team shot 14 of 39. I refuse to believe that this team got this bad "overnight." Granted Milwaukee led the league in scoring during the regular season and was also #1 in defensive efficiency. But Boston was able to "expose" their flaws back in the 112-90, Game 1 win. There's no reason to believe they can't keep this one close. I have to admit that part of me was wanting to take the Celtics on the 1st Half line only. They actually led at halftime in both Games 3 and 4. All throughout the series, the 3rd quarter has been the deciding factor w/ the last three games seeing the Bucks +40 in that quarter. Maybe a road trip is what the Celtics need. They've covered six of their last seven road games. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 times they have been off a double digit home loss. There have been only two times all season that the Celtics have dropped four straight games. Again, I think they keep this one close. 8* Boston |
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05-07-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 89-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors were able to seize the home court advantage back w/ a 101-96 win in Game 4, covering as a 2-point underdog. I was on them there, feeling this is the better team in the series. Obviously, I still feel that way and will now lay the points w/ them back at home. While Philadelphia did win Game 2, they had previously dropped 14 straight here "North of the Border" and are only 5-23 SU vs. Toronto since the start of the 2013-14 season. Back home, the Raptors should reassert themselves as they are 35-11 SU in all home games this season. Toronto has done a marvelous job defensively in the playoffs, allowing an average of just 95.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting. Only once have they given up more than 104 points or allowed better than 42.0% shooting and that was Game 3 in Philadelphia. Take that away and the defensive numbers from Toronto get even more impressive. Game 4 marked the third time in the series that they held the Sixers below 100 points. Kawhi Leonard is having a series for the ages here, averaging 38 points and nine rebounds per game. He is easily the best player on either team right now. Toronto getting back the homecourt advantage was huge. Philadelphia is just 23-22 SU on the road this year while being outscored in the process. I expect Leonard to get more "help" from his supporting cast here at home, including Kyle Lowry, who has struggled at times here in the postseason. Prior to winning Game 2, the Sixers had failed to cover five times in a row here in Toronto. They don't have the depth the Raptors do, which we saw in Game 4 w/ Joel Embiid playing sick. On the road, I expect the depth issue to be an even bigger factor. 10* Toronto |
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05-06-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:35 ET): All three games in this series have been decided by six points or less and Houston's 126-121 win in Game 3 went to overtime. I'm anticipating another close one tonight, but getting the Warriors off a loss and NOT having to lay points seems like quite the ideal combination. The Dubs are 8-1 ATS L9 on the road when seeking revenge. They are also 21-6 SU off a SU loss this season (4-0 ATS L4), winning by an average of 8.4 points per game. You have to figure Steph Curry will break out of his shooting slump sooner rather than later and tonight sounds like as good a time as any. Take the short number. Curry has not been good in this series so far, shooting just 18 of 52 overall and 8 of 32 from three-point range. He was just 7 of 23 in Game 3 and had an all-time low point when he missed a breakaway dunk w/ just 19.2 seconds left in overtime. But in spite of Curry's shooting woes (not to mention Klay Thompson's as well), Golden State still leads the best of seven series 2-1. That should have Houston quite scared. Of course, when you are as talent rich as the Warriors are, a Curry slump isn't necessarily a backbreaker. Kevin Durant continues to dominate this postseason, averaging 35.6 PPG on better than 51% overall shooting. Houston obviously has James Harden, who had 41 points in Game 3. But unlike the Warriors, I'm not sure the Rockets can reliably count on multiple scoring options. They did get 30 points in Game 3 from Eric Gordon, his career playoff high. But I wouldn't go expecting a repeat of that tonight. Chris Paul hasn't had a great series by any means as he's yet to score 20 pts in any game. I expect Curry or Thompson (possibly both?!) to have a big Game 4 and for the Warriors to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Houston is 17-37-1 ATS after scoring 125+ pts their last game. 10* Golden State |
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05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 101-96 | Win | 102 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
8* Toronto (3:30 ET): Put up or shut up time here for the Raptors, who have lost two straight to the 76ers, including an embarrassing 116-95 loss here in Philly on Thursday. After allowing fewer than 100 pts in six straight games, Toronto was torched for 116 in Game 3. Not only was that the first time a Raptors' opponent shot better than 50% in these playoffs, it was the first time any opponent shot 42%! They should shore up the defensive issues here while at the same time improving their own offense rather dramatically. I'm laying the short number w/ what I still view as the better team. The Raptors have scored only 89 and 95 pts the last two games, shooting 39% from the field. Kyle Lowry's already checkered postseason past is again coming into question as he was held to only 7 points (on 2 of 10 shooting) in Game 3. But as we've seen time after time, Lowry typically follows a poor playoff performance w/ a decent to good one. He was held to nine points in Game 1 (ironically, a Toronto win) and then scored 20 in Game 2 (ironically, a loss). So I expect Lowry to "help out" Kawhi Leonard a little more Sunday afternoon. Leonard has had a great series (37.6 PPG). So has Pascal Siakam (23.3 PPG). It's on Lowry to pull his weight too. One would have to go back to March 22-24 to find the last time the Raptors lost B2B games. They have not been on a three-game losing streak since November and that was their lone losing streak of that length all season. Since then, they're 5-0 in this situation (off B2B losses). I felt the Raptors were the much better team in the regular season as Philly's YTD point differential (+2.9 per game) was pretty weak for a 3-seed. Toronto has a sizable edge defensively according to the numbers. You have to keep in mind that Thursday was the Raptors' 1st loss by more than seven points since March 11th. Since we flipped the calendar to 2019, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS off a DD loss. 8* Toronto |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): After a very impressive showing in Game 1 and a good start in Game 2, the Celtics pretty much "fell apart" in the second half Tuesday night in Milwaukee. They were outscored 39-18 in the third quarter and that was the difference in the game as they lost by 21, 123-102, as 7-pt underdogs. Fortunately for them, they already did what they needed to do and that was win one in Milwaukee. Now they return to Boston where they've gone 12-1 ATS their L13 playoffs games. This includes a 2-0 mark vs. Indiana in Round 1 where they allowed just 74 and 91 points. Game 2 was easily Boston's worst defensive effort of these playoffs as they gave up 123 points. Before that, they hadn't allowed more than 106 in any playoff game and had allowed 96 pts or less in four of the five games. It was also a bad shooting night for the Celtics as they made only 39.5% of their field goal attempts. Given how well the "zig zag theory" (play on previous game's ATS loser) has worked out so far in the NBA playoffs, one should reasonably expect the Celtics to bounce back at home Friday night. The Bucks are just 1-6 ATS their last seven trips to Boston. That includes 0-4 in LY's 1st round playoff series where the home team won every game straight up. Don't discount the experience factor (on Boston's side) that I spoke of previously. Aside from the third quarter of Game 2, the Celtics have largely outplayed the Bucks so far. I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat here of the Bucks' three-point shooting from Game 2 where they went 20 of 47 w/ Khris Middleton's 7 of 10 leading the charge. Middleton has 44 pts so far in the series, but on the road I expect him to struggle to find his shot. Lay the points. 8* Boston |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): I had the Raptors in Game 1. That was a good play. They won 108-95 as six-point chalk. I had the Over in Game 2. That was not a good play. It was a 94-89 final w/ the Sixers winning and thus "stealing" the home court advantage. I came into this series believing Toronto was decidedly the better team. But I laid off Monday (Game 2), thinking Philadelphia would be eager to rebound and end a 14-game losing streak "North of the Border." They did just that, led by Jimmy Butler's 30 points. But, off a loss, I love the Raptors in this price range. Take the visitors. Unlike the first two games, we no longer have to really worry about "laying points" w/ Toronto. A SU win basically equals an ATS win here. I'll go back to something I said in my Game 1 analysis and that's Philly profiles as a pretty weak 3-seed. They had a regular season point differential of just +2.9 PPG. That was only fifth in the Conference. Also, despite winning Game 2, history has not been on the Sixers side vs. the Raptors. Not only are they just 1-13 their L14 visits to Canada, they are 4-22 SU against them since the start of the 2013-14 season. Their only win in four regular season meetings this year came when Toronto was w/o Kawhi Leonard. Toronto's defense in the 1st round vs. Orlando really impressed me. They have kept it up in this series and have now allowed fewer than 100 pts in six straight games. They're giving up an average of just 92.7 PPG in the playoffs (on 39.0% shooting). There is a big gap between these teams defensively. Toronto's scoring drops very little on the road as they still average 113.2 PPG. They are 4-0 ATS off their previous four ATS losses. Look for the Raptors to regain control of this series. 10* Toronto |
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05-01-19 | Blazers +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): I was a perfect 5-0 in Denver's 1st round series, but never once took the Nuggets. Now that perfect record did include three totals plays. But I also did fade the Nuggets twice, noting they didn't fit the typical profile of a #2 seed. Their regular season point differential was just 5th best in the Western Conference and their net efficiency rating was 6th. One of the teams with better numbers than them is Portland. Now, Game 1 obviously belonged to Denver, who won 121-113 as 4-point favorites. That was particularly impressive when you consider the Nuggets were 48 hrs removed from playing a Game 7. Portland had a five-day break. The Trail Blazers actually had a better overall FG% in Game 1 (51.9 to 50.6) and Damian Lillard led all players in scoring w/ 39 pts. But it was points off turnovers that were likely the biggest determining factor and Lillard was upstaged by Denver's Nikola Jokic as the game's most impactful player. Now back to the turnovers and the points scored off them. Whereas Portland was only able to convert 12 Denver turnovers into six points, Denver converted 18 Portland TO's into 23 points. That was the difference in the ballgame. While Denver is now 4-1 SU head to head vs. Portland in 2018-19, virtually all of the games have been close and were decided by single digits. In the regular season, they only outscored the Blazers by six points. Two of the wins were by three points or fewer. Winning close games have somewhat been the Nuggets' forte this season as they were a perfect 7-0 SU in the regular season in games decided by three points or less. Winning close games at that kind of rate is no skill, but rather good fortune. With Portland at 11-5 ATS off a SU loss and 14-6-1 ATS off an ATS loss, I'll back them to bounce back in Game 2. Take the points. 10* Portland |