Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-16-17 | Loyola Marymount v. St. Mary's -15.5 | Top | 48-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for Loyola Marymount here. They are venturing into St. Mary's right after the Gaels lost for the just the second time in conference play. That loss did take place here at home, against rival Gonzaga on Saturday. The Gaels played the Zags tough, but ultimately came up short (by 10 points) on the scoreboard. Both WCC losses so far have come to Gonzaga. Otherwise, St. Mary's has taken care of business in conference play w/ 11 of its 12 wins coming by double digits. One of those came all the way back on December 29th as they beat Loyola Marymount on the road, 72-60 as 11.5-pt chalk. I suppose you could make the case that this is a big number to lay after suffering a disappointing loss, but SMC has had adequate time to get over what happened on Saturday. Lay the points. Loyola Marymount had the misfortune of playing Gonzaga two days before St. Mary's did. They lost by 30, at home. If you're going to make the case that the Lions might take advantage of a letdown here from the Gaels, then you probably would have also argued that they should have taken advantage of a lookahead spot last week. That clearly didn't happen. Loyola did win its next game, 66-60 over Portland on Saturday, but the Pilots are a very bad basketball team. I mean really bad. As in their last win was December 31st. St. Mary's beat them 74-33 here at home. Note Loyola is also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less their last game. Also troubling for the Lions is that they've shot worse than 40% from the field in three consecutive games. As I'm about to get into, St. Mary's can be a very staunch team defensively. There was a game two weeks ago where St. Mary's allowed just 27 points. Not in a half, but in a GAME. That was at San Diego on Feb 4. For the year, the team is giving up just 56.6 PPG, which is second best in the nation, trailing only Virginia. Besides Gonzaga, only one WCC team has been able to score 70 against the Gaels and that was Pacific, who hit it right on the nose. St. Mary's average margin of victory here at McKeon Pavillion is 15.8 points per game. Against a below average foe like Loyola Marymount, they should be able to top that. The only team besides Gonzaga that came in here and won this season was TX-Arlington. That was all the way back in the second game of the season. After a couple of bad shooting performances last week, the Gaels should rebound here against a team which allows its opponents to make 48.8% of its field goal attempts (38.6% from 3-pt range) on the road. 10* St. Mary's |
|||||||
02-16-17 | Colorado v. Oregon State +11 | Top | 60-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* Oregon State (9:00 ET): There's no sugarcoating the fact that this has been an awful season up in Corvallis. Not only has Oregon State yet to win a single conference game (0-13 SU!), but they have been w/o their best player, Tres Tinkle (coach's son), ever since January 7th due to a wrist injury. The result has been them getting outscored by an average of 16.7 PPG by Pac 12 foes. Most of the games, as you can tell, have not been close. But one that was took place at the end of January at Colorado. There, the Beavers were able to stay within the generous 18-pt spot, losing only 85-78. The rematch is tonight and it seems as if the oddsmakers still haven't learned their lesson as, now on the road, CU is still laying too many points given that they are a below average Pac 12 team. Furthermore, this is hardly a great spot for the Buffs. They're in off a blowout win on Sunday and have a far "bigger" game on deck, at Oregon, later this week. Take the points. Oregon State actually has a history of playing Colorado tough, at least here in Corvallis. They've both won and covered the spread in five of the past six meetings here, including LY's 60-56 win as three-point favorites. There haven't been many Pac 12 wins since, but at least the Beavers can enter w/ some confidence knowing they've been able to at least hang w/ the Buffs recently. They were also able to hang w/ UCLA, at least most of the way, on Sunday. Taking on one of the league's top teams, OSU actually led late in the first half and held the Bruins to a season-low 32 1H pts. The 78-60 final is a bit misleading, although UCLA pulled away halfway through the second half. But still, OSU stayed within the number (+25.5) the whole game. Colorado dominated Washington State on Sunday, winning 81-49 as 12.5-pt home favorites. It was their second straight game scoring 81 pts on better than 50% shooting. But both of those games took place in Boulder. The Buffaloes have just one Pac 12 road win this season and it came at Stanford back on 2.2. They are 0-6 SU otherwise. One key reserve, Deleon Brown, may be out tonight as he sustained a concussion Sunday. CU is only 5-10 ATS this year when laying points. As mentioned above, they'll be at Oregon this weekend, a date that they players and coaching staff are probably pointing to alot more than this one. The Buffs are also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less in the previous game. Coming off a blowout like that has inflated this line. 8* Oregon State |
|||||||
02-15-17 | Hawks v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers are still w/o Chris Paul and facing a formidable schedule, but don't count this team out yet. They just concluded a grinding, five-game road trip w/ three consecutive wins, the last two both coming in the underdog role. The more impressive of those two came last time out as they beat Utah 88-72, a throwback defensive performance to the early portion of the season when they led the league in efficiency. Now they actually get to play a home game! Their only other time over the last 11 games that they got to play at Staples Center was unfortunately against the Warriors (on 2.2) and you get one guess as to how that went. Tonight, they host an Atlanta team I happen to feel is quite overrated. Lay the short number. The Hawks are now fourth in the Eastern Conference at 32-23 straight up. That SU record comes w/ a big caveat though as they've actually been outscored over the course of the year.This will be their third straight games out West. After losing by a single point at Sacramento, they topped Portland 109-104 as 2-pt dogs Monday night. Don't let that score fool you though as the game went to overtime and it was a bad shooting night for both teams. The Hawks shot only 38.6% from the floor, but were fortunate that Portland finished at 35.9%. One area that Atlanta was dominated was on the glass. Portland grabbed 78 rebounds for the game. That's a lot and the Blazers are hardly a great rebounding team. Atlanta was pretty fortunate to even make it to OT Monday as they needed a Paul Milsap buzzer beater at the end of regulation to get there. They also trailed by seven in the extra frame before closing them on 12-0 run. There's no Paul, but Blake Griffin is picking up the slack for the Clips by averaging 25.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists the L5 games. While the team may not match its defensive performance from the last game, I expect improvement on the offensive end. They'd scored at least 100 pts in six straight games prior to Monday. Note that it was only three weeks ago that the Clippers went down to Atlanta and won outright as seven-point dogs. That was not only w/o Paul, but w/o Griffin as well. One player I expect to regress on the Atlanta side is Tim Hardaway Jr, who has scored in double figures 10 straight games. That's easily a career best stretch for him and should come to an end shortly. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
02-15-17 | Indiana +5.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:00 ET): The Hoosiers are in a bad way right now. Some of that had to do w/ losing leading scorer James Blackmon. But Blackmon was back on the court Sunday when the team lost 75-63 to Michigan at Assembly Hall. It was their fifth loss in the last six games and the one win during that stretch was against Penn State and required three overtimes. So you would actually have to go all the way back to a January 21st home victory over Michigan State to find the last time this squad won a game in regulation. That sounds bad and I realize the road record isn't good (1-5 SU/ATS), but let us not forget this is a team that beat BOTH Kansas and North Carolina this year. Time to get back on track tonight. Take the points. Minnesota is one of a handful of Big 10 teams I believe to be highly overrated (Maryland and Northwestern are the others). The Gophers actually ended January on a five-game losing streak. While they've certainly turned things around here in February (won three in a row), the competition has been weaker. Saturday saw them go to last place Rutgers and prevail 72-63. The Scarlet Knights shot the ball terribly and didn't rebound as well as they normally do. That was the Gophers second straight Big 10 road win, but they've come at the expense of the bottom two teams. The other was 68-59 at Illinois back on Feb 4, another game where they benefited from poor opponent shooting (38.1%). In between, there was a VERY fortuitous cover here at home against Iowa. That game, which went to double overtime, actually saw the Gophers cover as seven-point favorites, 101-89. Minnesota is just 6-6 SU in league play and will have trouble containing this offense. Indiana comes in averaging over 80 PPG and is also a top 36 team nationally in rebounding. Lately, the offense has struggled, but that's had a lot to do w/ Blackmon. He's gone just 5 of 21 from the field in two games since returning to the lineup. That's gotta improve, right? With everyone starting to write off the Hoosiers, I feel now is the perfect opportunity to jump on board? I can see an outright upset here as these teams would be rated relatively even on a neutral floor. Even with the homecourt edge, Minnesota is favored by too much. 10* Indiana |
|||||||
02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -10.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Butler (8:30 ET): St. John's has covered five straight games, the latest being a minor upset of Seton Hall (at home) on Saturday. Meanwhile, Butler is off an outright loss at Providence (were three-point favorites). That and the fact that the Johnnie's upset the Bulldogs in the first meeting of the year have created some much needed value on the favorite tonight. Consider that Butler was an eight-point favorite in NYC when they lost to the Red Storm, 76-73, back on December 29th. That game saw St. John's shoot 54% from the floor, their best mark to date in conference play and well above their season-long average of 43.8%. HC Chris Mullin has - somewhat shockingly - turned things around here, but his team is due to get blown out. Lay the points. Butler is considered to be a NCAA Tournament team right now, but losing at Providence Saturday certainly won't help their cause. The team is still ranked in the Top 25 mind you (#24), even though they've lost three of four. That was after an 18-3 start though that included an 11-0 SU mark at home. The Bulldogs have actually lost B2B home games - to Georgetown and Creighton - as they allowed both of those teams to shoot the lights out. But usually it's Butler that has no issue scoring here in Hinkle Fieldhouse. They average 79.8 PPG on 50.0% shooting here. I expect the team's leading scorer Kelan Martin (15.4 PPG) to have a bounce back effort tonight after totaling only 20 pts in the L3 games. Notable is the Bulldogs' 3-1 SU/ATS record this year off a Big East loss. St. John's had a full week off prior to winning Saturday. Their opponents (Seton Hall) were coming off a pair of overtime wins, so certainly it was an ideal spot for the Red Storm. Another key in winning that game was turnover margin. They forced 18 and converted those into 30 points. Meanwhile, they turned it over only eight times themselves. Maybe they've simply been undervalued, but the bottom line is that the only two times St. John's has been favored in league play this year came against last place DePaul. The market catches up with them tonight. 8* Butler |
|||||||
02-15-17 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): Yes, there is no denying that Philadelphia is much improved this year. That's obvious by the fact they are 12-9 straight up since January 8th. They've also covered 16 of their last 22 games as well, including three consecutive upsets coming into tonight. They swept their way through the Southeast, beating Orlando, Miami and Charlotte, all games where they were an underdog. But let's keep a few things in perspective, okay? Most notably, even with all the improvement, this is still one of the five worst teams in basketball. They have also NEVER had a win streak of four games over the last three seasons. In fact, their only two three-game win streaks both came last month and in each instance, they failed to cover the next time out. Both of those were double-digit road losses, at Washington and at Atlanta. History repeats itself tonight. Boston has also won its last three games, two of them as road underdogs. Last time out, they finished off their Western Conference swing w/ a 111-98 win as 1.5-pt chalk at Dallas. This is a very hot team right now; their only loss in the last 11 games came at Sacramento (!) on Feb 8. Right now, the Celtics have a golden opportunity in front of them. They are #2 in the East, only 2.5 games back of Cleveland and the Cavs are now going to be w/o Kevin Love for the next six weeks. They can pick up as many as 1.5 games before the All-Star Break as they have not only this game, but Chicago tomorrow night. Meanwhile, Cleveland hosts Indiana in the second game of a back to back tonight. There will be a lot of chatter during the Break about whether or not Boston can overtake the defending World Champs. One thing is for certain and that's the Celtics have had no problem beating the 76ers the last few years. They've won all 10 matchups the L3 seasons, though they are 0-2 ATS against them this year. Both wins were by four points or less. But Philly will again be w/o the service of Joel Embiid tonight. The Celtics won at both Portland and Utah despite being down two starters and now have Jae Crowder back. Avery Bradley is still out, but that shouldn't matter as the 76ers allow over 108 PPG on the road. The Sixers also remain the least efficient offense in the league. Isaiah Thomas continues to lead the way for Boston w/ three straight 20+ pt games. He should have another big one here. 10* Boston |
|||||||
02-15-17 | Temple v. East Carolina +6 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
8* East Carolina (7:00 ET): This is most definitely a tricky spot for the road favorite, Temple. Not only are the Owls playing the second of B2B road games, they pulled an upset in the first leg, beating Temple 74-62 as six-point dogs Sunday. It's a shorter turnaround compared to their opponent as East Carolina last played Saturday. Admittedly, ECU isn't exactly in the finest form right now (lost 9 of 11). But the Pirates are 10-4 SU at home where they hold their opponents to just 58.4 points per game. Furthermore, there's a little value on them for this rematch as in the 1st meeting w/ Temple, they were nine-point road underdogs. Yes, there had to be adjustment after losing the game 81-62, but the market has swung too far against ECU here. Take the points. Even after beating Memphis, Temple is still near the bottom of the American, just one place ahead of East Carolina. The Owls entered Sunday at just 4-8 SU in conference play, so I question how worthy they are of laying points on the road. This will be just the second time as road chalk this year in conf play. They pushed the 1st time, winning 79-71 at Tulane, who is worse than East Carolina. Sunday in Memphis, the Owls won due a strong close to the first half. They actually trailed 23-14 early before going on an 18-0 run over an 8:42 span. That run essentially decided the game. Like I said earlier though, this is not your typically strong Temple squad. They've been outscored by about four points per game in conference play and particularly concerning here is that they are 0-4 ATS off an conference win this year. East Carolina did not shoot the ball well in the first meeting with Temple (3 of 14 from three-point range). The Pirates aren't a great shooting team to begin with, so that's hardly a surprise. Still, we should see improvement at home tonight. But the real improvement should come on the defensive end. That's a really impressive number that they're holding visitors to here at home. Note they held Cincinnati to just 55 pts in their visit last month. The Pirates have covered five of the last seven games overall. A big key here is that leading scorer BJ Tyson, who has been out w/ a knee injury, could be back on the floor for the first time since Jan 11. He was in uniform (but did not play) for Saturday's disappointing road loss to USF (ECU were 2-pt favorites). ECU did beat Temple here in Greenville last season in a near identical price range. 8* East Carolina No ActionNo |
|||||||
02-15-17 | Fordham v. Rhode Island -14 | Top | 53-43 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
8* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Fordham, like the team we played against yday (Marist), is not a good team. Thus I can't see why anyone would endorse them, even in this price range. The Rams may not be the worst team in the Atlantic 10 this year, but as per usual they're near the bottom of the league. Their only win over the L5 games was a double OT affair at St. Joe's. Tonight, they'll travel to Rhode Island to face another group of Rams, this one better and likely more angry. The Rhodies lost here at home their last time out, 75-74 to Dayton, a result which knocked them 2.5 games behind the conference leaders. The Rams are most certainly a "bubble team" right now in the eyes of the selection committee and really could use a blowout win in this spot. They'll get it. Any time a team loses by a single point at home, there's going to be a feeling of disappointment. But for Rhode Island last Friday, they REALLY had to be kicking themselves. They led a good Dayton team 73-69 w/ just 24 seconds left, but let it slip away despite holding the Flyers to 41.1% shooting for the game. That's a scenario where you HAVE to close. Two losses to the Flyers (by a combined five points) may ultimately sink URI's postseason hopes, but the bottom line is this team had won and covered four in a row prior to Friday's setback. Those four wins all came by a remarkably consistent 8 to 12 pt margin against the "middle class" of the A-10. This is a matchup w/ a bottom tier team that the should win by a larger margin. Friday was just the second home loss of the year for the Rams, who are outscoring visitors by 12.2 PPG to begin with this year. Fordham only averages 62.5 PPG on the road, so they'll have trouble keeping pace tonight. This will be their only meeting w/ Rhode Island this season, but the Rams should take it very seriously considering they actually lost at Fordham last year. But at home, URI won by 16. Both games saw Rhode Island shoot better than 50% from the floor. Given that scoring average, it should be no surprise that Fordham doesn't shoot the ball away from home. They're at 39.6% for the year. They also can't stop their opponents, particularly from three-point range. The fact they let home teams shoot 43.1% from behind the arc is really alarming. Rhode Island may just be 2-8 SU against the top 100 of the RPI, but they are 14-0 SU against everyone else. 8* Rhode Island |
|||||||
02-14-17 | Raptors -7 v. Bulls | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): I find it very odd that the Bulls are a perfect 9-0 - both straight up and against the spread - the past nine meetings with the Raptors. During this time, Toronto has been the better overall team, without question. Right now they may be slipping (lost 10 of 14), but I think a case can be made that Toronto is still a top two or three team in the East. (Their net efficiency rating is still the best!). Fortunately, Chicago is not playing well either of late as they've lost three straight, all in embarrassing fashion. Both teams are looking to atone for miserable performances Sunday as Toronto blew a double digit lead at home to Detroit. The price tag might seem high, but that's because the Bulls are going to be w/o both Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler again. Lay the points. Chicago just wrapped up a 2-4 SU road trip (all non-conference games) w/ three consecutive double digit losses. One was to Phoenix. The latest came Sunday at Minnesota and there we saw how dire things can get w/o Wade and Butler. By early in the second quarter, the Bulls were behind 45-19 and the game was basically decided. I see no reason to expect any kind of marked improvement tonight from a very short-handed squad. Paul Zipser and Nikola Mirotic are also likely out here. Many times, the first home game back after a long road trip is a really tough spot. While the Bulls are 5-0 SU/ATS off three consecutive losses this year, right now they just don't have the horses to compete. I said it many times earlier in the season, but I was surprised when things got off to seemingly a good start for this roster. I never viewed this as a playoff team. Toronto still doesn't have Patrick Patterson, but they are far healthier than Chicago. They also let a 16-point lead get away Sunday at home against the Pistons. That can't happen. I envision the team coming into this game highly motivated, especially after PG Kyle Lowry ripped their recent play. Offense is no issue for the Raptors as they are tied for second in the league in efficiency (w/ Houston), trailing only the obvious #1 (Golden State). The defense has been an issue, but as I said in Sunday's analysis, Chicago is not a good offensive team. I played the Under in the Bulls' loss to the T'wolves, which cashed. To rehash the facts, Chicago is the worst three-point shooting team in the league, both in terms of percentage and number made. That's including all the games that both Butler and Wade played in. Without that duo, plus two key reserves, they're going to have a REAL struggle to keep pace here. 10* Toronto |
|||||||
02-14-17 | Marist v. St. Peter's -12 | Top | 46-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
10* St. Peter's (7:30 ET): Marist is a very bad basketball team. They have just three conference wins this season, the last one coming all the way back on January 16th against Niagara. Since then, it's been seven straight MAAC losses, five of them by coming by double digits. One of those five was to tonight's opponent, St. Peter's, an 81-65 loss that took place at home. Tonight, they head to Jersey City as decided underdogs and I don't see this game going well for them. St. Peter's, playing a pretty road-heavy schedule of late, has covered six of its last seven games and were it not for an an abundance of close losses, they'd be right there w/ Monmouth, challenging for the MAAC regular season title. I see them "putting the boots" to the underdog in this one. Lay the points. Incredibly, five of St. Peter's six conference losses have been by three points or less. While five of their last six games overall have taken place on the road, ironically it was the one home game that that accounts for their lone ATS loss during that stretch. They fell at the buzzer, 72-70 to Canisius, as three-point favorites. That and a two-point home loss to Niagara last month really sting. The Peacocks have also recently lost by just a single point at Monmouth in overtime. That was after beating the MAAC leaders here at home, 71-61, earlier in the year. But let's talk about what the Peacocks do well, shall we? Last week, they went 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, crushing both Quinnipiac and Manhattan by a combined 48 points. Sunday in Manhattan, they shot 56% from the floor and never trailed. This is also a very good defensive team. They allow just 62.6 PPG, which is 14th best in the country. While SPU went 2-0 on the road last week, Marist was 0-2 at home. The Red Foxes lost by 20 to Fairfield and then by seven to Siena. Unlike tonight's opponent, they do not defend well. On the road, Marist gives up an alarming average of 80.1 points per game. They've also shot just 37.2% from the floor over the last five games. On the road, they are just 2-12. Here they'll have to contend with the fact that St. Peter's is 12-4 ATS in conference play and 6-1 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 pts or less. I think a decent case could be made that St. Peter's is a major darkhorse come conference tourney time. These teams are in completely different classes right now. 10* St. Peter's |
|||||||
02-14-17 | Ohio v. Eastern Michigan -1 | Top | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Friday, Eastern Michigan failed to do what Ohio did the week prior. That's beat Akron at home. The Eagles fell for a fourth consecutive time as the Zips shot a blistering 52.9% from the floor. That 87-76 final was EMU's sixth loss in the last seven games and after leading the MAC East at one point, the Eagles are now just 13-12 SU on the season. Meanwhile, Ohio has had an interesting L4 games, alternating a pair of upsets w/ SU losses as a favorite. After being Akron two Saturdays ago, the Bobcats fell at home (as 9-pt favorites) to Central Michigan. They responded by pulling a minor upset at Ball State on Friday, 79-77 as 1.5-pt dogs. I just can't envision Eastern Michigan losing again here, especially considering they're at home, so I'll lay the very short number. Though I was on Ohio when they beat Akron (Zips' 1st MAC loss of the season), I warned that this was not the same team we saw at the start of the season. That's because they lost leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year (knee injury) back on January 20th. Again, the team has alternated wins and losses in the six games w/o him, three times losing SU as a favorite. Another of their three remaining double digit scorers, Kenny Kaminski, was injured in the last game. However, he may still play here. But what Bobcats' backers need to be concerned about here is their team gives up 76.8 PPG on the road. Also, it was an awful shooting night the first time they faced EMU this season. In an ugly 53-49 loss, Ohio shot just 30% from the floor. That was at home w/ Campbell in the lineup, mind you. Another troubling sign is Ohio's propensity to blow big leads. Twice in the L4 games, they've lost a lead of at least 18 points. They actually blew all of a 25-pt lead Friday at Ball State before pulling out the two-point victory. Eastern Michigan also needs to be concerned about its defense. They've allowed two straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor and on Friday, Akron hit 18 three-pointers against them. Ohio can be a deadly three-point shooting team as well, but we've already see the Eagles put the clamps down on them once. What EMU need not worry about here is their offense, which averages 87.0 PPG here in Ypsilanti. Note Ohio actually led EMU 26-19 at the half in the 1st meeting, so that's another blown lead. Having lost four in a row, Eastern Michigan is a desperate team here. I see them picking up their first home win since 1.17 tonight. 8* Eastern Michigan |
|||||||
02-13-17 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -6 | Top | 61-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* LA Lafayette (8:00 ET): Maybe more than any other conference in America, the Sun Belt seems to take perverse enjoyment in making its members play two road games over the span of three days. (Note: The Pac 12 typically does this a lot too, only Thurs-Sat). Tonight, South Alabama is forced to do the deed after pulling out a three-point win at LA Monroe on Saturday. This will actually be the Jaguars' third consecutive road game, they won the 1st too (at Troy, 76-71, as six-point underdogs), so this is an attempt at a somewhat improbable sweep. Prior to the trip starting, the team was just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year. They'll be visiting LA Lafayette, who just lost their fourth game in a row Saturday, at home, to Troy. Given situation and circumstance, I'll back the Ragin Cajuns here. Lay the points. LA Lafayette is just 4-8 SU in conference play, but the majority of losses have been close. Four have come by five points or less. Now they did just give up 100+ pts for a second time. Troy hit the century mark on the nose thanks to a career-high 31 pts from Jordan Varnado. The 100-88 final was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was a six-point game in the final 30 seconds. (Troy made 12 of 14 FT's in the final 1:19). Defensive ineptitude aside, the Ragin Cajuns can score, especially here at home. They average 87.4 PPG here at the Cajundome, so it's actually pretty head-scratching that they've lost four times here. Prior to the loss to Troy, the team had lost B2B road games - both by four points or less. South Alabama has covered four in a row, their only loss during that time coming by just three points at Georgia State. So it would appear to the "naked eye" that these are two teams trending in opposite directions. However, considering that the Jaguars average only 69.8 PPG on the road, it's right to question just how they'll be able to keep pace here. The team's overall field goal percentage has also been up of late and is thus likely to start regressing back to the mean (42% for the year) sooner rather than later. Both recent road wins were close for USA; on Saturday they faced the last place team in the conference and won by only three. That snapped a seven-game losing streak to Monroe, so there could be a bit of a letdown here in what shapes up as a tough spot anyway. 8* LA Lafayette |
|||||||
02-13-17 | Magic +8 v. Heat | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
|||||||
02-12-17 | Virginia -7 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
8* Virginia (6:30 ET): In past analysis, I have not hid my affection for HC Tony Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers. The Hoos are off perhaps their finest win of the year here having downed Louisville 71-55 on Monday. That was in Charlottesville and a much needed performance after dropping two of their previous three (both losses by 4 pts or less). Here, they'll hit the road to face a team they recently destroyed in Charlottesville, that being Va Tech, who found itself on the wrong end of a 71-48 beatdown back on Feb 1. As a result, the number for tonight's rematch is obviously a bit inflated, but in my opinion it is still not high enough. The Hokies are simply nowhere near UVA's class and the Cavaliers will take this game seriously considering they lost LY's visit to Blacksburg. Lay the points. Virginia continues to lead the nation in points allowed, giving up just 54.0 per game. As mentioned earlier, they held Va Tech to only 48 in the first meeting. The Hokies shot a woeful 35.7% from the floor in that game (including 3 of 20 from 3-pt range!) in what ended up being the most lopsided margin of victory in this in-state rivalry over the last 25 years. Even with the scene shifting to Blacksburg, I can't really see much justification for Va Tech keeping this one close. The Hokies are 12-1 SU at Cassell Coliseum this season, averaging over 85 PPG, but Virginia has won 23 of its last 33 ACC road games. While 3-3 SU over its last six games, two of Va Tech's wins were by a single point. They lost again (at Miami) on Wednesday. Virginia has had an extra two days to prepare here, which should be considered an advantage they probably did not need. If there is one area that the Cavs do need work on it's limiting turnovers. They have given it away 29 times the L2 games after averaging just nine per game previously. Fortunately, Va Tech does not force many TO's. Again, Virginia is not bothered by playing on the road where they've gone 7-2 against the spread. On Monday, they looked as good as any team in the country (in the 2nd half at least), outscoring Louisville 39-21. Remember the Cardinals came into that game as hot as any team in the country. I believe Virginia is a top 5 team nationally and should be pretty close to that ranking after a win tonight. 8* Virginia |
|||||||
02-12-17 | Cincinnati v. SMU -4.5 | Top | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
10* SMU (4:00 ET): Cincinnati is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. The others are: Vermont (America East), Princeton (Ivy) and Gonzaga (WCC). However, a case could certainly be made that the Bearcats are NOT the clear-cut best team in the American. Today they'll face what will be their toughest conference game of the season, a trip to SMU. Not only are the Mustangs perfect at Moody Coliseum this season (8-1 ATS too!), they're 46-3 SU here the L3 seasons. They have also won seven straight, six of those by double digits, since losing the first meeting w/ Cincinnati by just two points. That 66-64 loss (as 4.5 pt dogs) on Jan 12 is the Mustangs ONLY loss dating back to November! Last Saturday, we saw three teams w/o a conference loss get priced as underdogs. All three lost, so I'll lay the points in this situation. SMU comes in averaging a very impressive 1.18 points per possession in conference play. That's quite the efficient offense there. At the same time, they also are giving up only 58.6 points per game, which is fewest in the country and third fewest in the country. They are led by Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, who is one of only two players in the conference averaging both 17 pts and 5 rebounds per game. He dropped a career-high 30 points (also had 10 boards) in Thursday's 66-50 win over Temple. Scary is the fact the team didn't shoot particularly well (37.9 FG%) and still won comfortably, on the road no less. They completely dominated Temple on the glass, outrebounding them 49-32. They also outrebounded Cincy in the first meeting. The fact that SMU just cracked the Top 25 is a bit preposterous. I've had them safely ranked in my Top 20 for some time. Cincinnati was able to build a lead as big as 15 pts in that first meeting as they shot the ball much better than SMU, particularly from three-point range. But good luck w/ repeating that feat considering SMU outscores its visitors by 22 PPG at home. Both Bearcats losses this year took place out on the road. Granted the last one took place all the way back on Dec 10 at Butler. Like SMU, Cincy shot the ball poorly in its last game, yet still won by double digits. That should tell you right there that these are easily the two best teams in the American. But the key today will be the homecourt advantage plus the fact the Bearcats are just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams allowing fewer than 64 PPG. 10* SMU |
|||||||
02-11-17 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -9 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (6:00 ET): All the goodwill that came with last Saturday's upset of Kansas (in Lawrence!) was quickly swept away as Iowa State was upset by Texas on Tuesday. Given it was the second of back to back road games and what the Cyclones did against the Jayhawks, maybe such a result was inevitable. They came out of the gate ice cold, making only 2 of their first 17 shots from the floor. They were down 30-13 to start the game. They eventually fought back, tying the game in the final minute, but lost on a pair of free throws in the closing seconds. While the Cyclones have now dropped three of four overall, I like their chances of bouncing back tonight against an Oklahoma team that is not playing well. ISU is 6-1 ATS the L7 games in the series, including a five-point win in Norman earlier this year. OU was actually a two-point favorite in that first meeting, but that was before we knew how bad this season would be for the Sooners. They've now lost six in a row and are coming off a tough result Wednesday vs WVU as they scored only 50 points at home. That was a bitter pill to swallow considering they led for much of the first half. But their shooting never got on track (33% for the game) and they struggled badly against the Mountaineers' press. This is clearly the worst team in the Big 12 this year as they're just 2-9 SU in conference play. They've failed to top 70 pts in any of the L4 games and probably won't here considering ISU allows only 63.9 PPG at home. While the loss to Texas was disappointing, last Saturday's win at Kansas shows Iowa State can play w/ anyone. With the exception of a loss to Iowa, there hasn't been a single game this year they haven't been in. They lead the conference in transition points (20.5 per game) and PG Monte Morris is a player to keep an eye out for. His assist to turnover ratio (4.59) is currently on pace to be the best in league history and the best by any player in the country in the L20 years. I already mentioned how the Iowa defense performs at home, well, the offense is pretty good too. It averages 82.3 PPG, so it's an avg MOV of 18.4 PPG here in Ames. I think the Cyclones are a lot better than their given credit for; I'd certainly consider them "top 25 worthy" in fact. They'll show that here. 10* Iowa State |
|||||||
02-11-17 | Clippers v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 107-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (5:05 ET): The Clippers are in the midst of a pretty tough stretch and the fact they are w/o their leader (Chris Paul) has made things all the more brutal. Going back to January 21st, they've had to play 9 of their last 10 games on the road. The lone home game was against Golden State. This will be their fourth straight game out East and the trip will finally end in Utah Monday. They are off a win, but that came at the expense of the dysfunctional Knicks. Prior to that, they'd dropped seven of nine and three straight. Meanwhile, injuries are also a legitimate reason to cite for Charlotte's current slide, although they are healthier now. Still they have just one win in the last nine games and it was a close one against Brooklyn. This is a game they NEED to win. Lay the points. Thursday night saw the Hornets fall here at home to the Rockets, 107-95 as 2.5-pt dogs. A poor third quarter (outscored 36-22) and turnovers (season-high 22) were to blame for that one. Houston is no stalwart defensively, so it was definitely disappointing to see Charlotte score only 95 points. They average more than 105 PPG for the year. But the team has not shot the ball well recently. That should change here facing a Clippers defense which has fallen off a cliff. Los Angeles now allows 109.6 PPG on the road this season and just gave up 115 to the Knicks. That was after allowing 118 against Toronto. Lost in the all the drama surrounding Carmelo Anthony and Charles Oakley Wednesday night is the fact the Clips actually trailed the Knicks by 10 points in the fourth quarter. Blake Griffin is starting to play well again after returning from his own injury, but w/o Paul this is clearly a much worse team. It took a unique set of circumstances to come back and beat the Knicks, which is pretty embarrassing. I look at a Hornets team that has covered only one of its last 10 games (last Saturday at Utah) and seen an opportunity to "buy low." 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
02-11-17 | Texas v. Oklahoma State -11.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): Oklahoma State lost outright as a favorite its last game while Texas won straight up as a dog. That typically creates a situation where there's value on the home side and this afternoon in Stillwater is no different. Beating Iowa State (at home) and having a 6-1 ATS road record may look impressive. But note that the Longhorns are an ugly 0-10 SU outside of Austin this season! Oklahoma State, whose games typically don't lack for scoring, averages an impressive 93.5 PPG in Stillwater. So I'll call for the Pokes to bounce back from Wednesday's disappointing result where they scored only 69 pts here and lost to Baylor by three points. They were actually 1.5-pt chalk for that matchup, notable because Baylor has lost only two games all year. That should tell you right there about how the marketplace views the Cowboys. Lay the points here. The discrepancy between what Oklahoma State averages at home and Texas averages on the road is quite significant. The 'Horns average just 61.9 PPG on the road, so as you can see it will take quite the yeoman's effort on the defensive end to keep pace today. I'm not sure they have it in them. They did pull off an 82-79 win over OK State, in Austin, back on January 4th. That still stands as UT's highest scoring game - by a wide margin - in Big 12 play. They were down at the half, however, and were aided by an edge in FT attempts, an area where they typically do not convert. Note that wasn't a good spot for OSU as it was a "sandwich game" between West Virginia and Baylor. Tevin Mack had a career-high 27 pts for Texas, but is of course now out indefinitely due to a suspension. Given Mack's absence, it was pretty shocking to see the Horns upset Iowa State earlier in the week. Again, that game was shockingly decided at the FT line, which is not Texas' strong suit. Iowa State also shot the ball terribly early on. Perhaps that had something to do w/ the letdown spot they were in, coming off their own upset of Kansas. OSU had a five-game win streak snapped w/ the loss to Baylor. Again, the idea of a letdown spot was in play as the Cowboys were off an impressive upset of West Virginia, in Morgantown no less! Playing two top 10 teams in a row is a tough spot. This will be a clear drop in class. Texas won't shoot the ball as well as Baylor did Wednesday as the loss of Mack clearly should catch up w/ them. OSU did hold Baylor w/o a field goal over the final four minutes of the game, so they can play some defense too. 8* Oklahoma State |
|||||||
02-11-17 | Denver v. North Dakota State -4.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
10* North Dakota State (3:00 ET): North Dakota State currently leads the Summit League, but two teams are within one game of them. They faced one of the two today, at home, as Denver comes calling. This will be a revenge spot for the Bison, who suffered one of their three league losses this year at Denver, nearly one month ago. They were embarrassed actually, losing 79-55 as a two-point favorite. Given what the spread was there and what it is now, it sure looks as if there's some substantial value on the favorite for this rematch. They are off a blowout of South Dakota State on Thursday, which thankfully snapped a two-game losing streak. Denver is off B2B wins, one a blowout of Oral Roberts (as an underdog) and then a close call at home vs. Ft. Wayne last Saturday. The fact that Denver has been off for a week may have influenced this line as well. But I'm highly skeptical of this team being able to replicate recent performances. Back on Jan 31, they shot a ridiculous 72 percent in the second half against Oral Roberts, which led to a 93-69 win as three-point dogs. The Pioneers are a good shooting team (50% in conf play!), but that's taking things to an unsustainable level. Sure enough, their next time out they declined to 41.7%, but still managed to beat Ft Wayne thanks to C.J. Bobbitt's buzzer beater in overtime, which gave the team a 76-73 win as 2.5-pt home favorites. While having only played twice in the past 11 days seems like a nice luxury, it could lead to some rust and certainly NDSU will not be lacking for motivation here. The Bison experienced a dreadful shooting night in the 1st meeting vs. Denver as they finished a lousy 31.7% from the floor (19 of 60!). That is easily their worst offensive showing of conference play. After losing as favorites to both IUPUI and South Dakota last week, NDSU bounced back by making over 51% of its shots in an 82-65 rout of South Dakota State on Wednesday. Note that the Bison have been a favorite in every Summit League game thus far. At home, their record is 9-2 SU and their scoring average jumps to 79.5 PPG. They have hit 80 pts in 7 of 10 Summit League games thus far. This is a pretty deep team w/ seven different players scoring at least 18 pts in one game this season. 10* North Dakota State |
|||||||
02-10-17 | Lakers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I certainly am not averse to buying low on bad news. In this instance, the "bad news" for the Bucks is that for a second time in three years Jabari Parker has suffered a season-ending knee injury. Parker's permanent departure from the lineup comes at a time when Kris Middleton had finally rejoined it. Compounding matters is that Milwaukee is ice cold right now. After looking like a legit player in the Eastern Conference for much of the first half, they've dropped 11 of 13 - both SU and ATS. But help arrives tonight in the form of a visit from the lowly Lakers. Sure, Los Angeles has covered six of seven, but they just got blown out in Detroit and this will be the finale of a five-game Eastern trip. You have to wonder what they have left in the tank. Lay the points. Even w/o Parker, I believe this line should be close to double digits. Parker, who started at power forward, was second on the team in scoring. But Giannis Antekounmpo is still here and Middleton is now back. I think there's been a clear overreaction to the Parker injury by the marketplace. Even as the losses have started to pile up, the Bucks still sport a positive net efficiency rating. I used the phrase "buy low" in the first sentence of this analysis and it's something I say often. Milwaukee is not as bad as they've looked lately, particularly in the Heat game Wednesday. Strangely, that loss to Miami dropped them to 0-7 SU/ATS when playing with three or more days rest. They're .500 in all other games and have a positive point differential. This is a really low number to lay to the Lakers on the road. Luke Walton's team is just 6-24 SU on the road, giving up over 112 points per game. This is the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Walton has been trying out some different lineups of late, which while smart for the long-term, will also lead to short-term struggles. When priced as a road underdog (as they are here), the Lakers are being outscored by an awful 12.8 points per game. Milwaukee's scoring increases rather dramatically at home anyway, so even w/o Parker, I expect plenty of points from them tonight in what virtually shapes up as "must-win" for them. 10* Milwaukee |
|||||||
02-10-17 | Heat v. Nets +7 | 108-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): We have two teams trending in totally opposite directions here. Miami has, improbably, won 12 in a row and covered the spread in all 12 games. Brooklyn has lost 11 straight and is a hideous 1-22 SU its L23 games. The Nets' current 13-game home losing streak is the longest to ever begin a calendar year! But I'm going to buck the trends and back the underdog Friday night at the Barclays Center. Why would I do such a thing? Well, in addition to the simple laws of regression, the Nets have certainly been more competitive of late. They just took Washington to overtime Wednesday night, which made it B2B covers as their six losses have all been by single digits. Consider this number is nearly identical to what the Heat were asked to lay - in Miami - just 12 days ago! Take the points. Miami's current win streak may be the biggest shocker of the NBA season so far. It has more than doubled their total number of wins for the season as they were 11-30 SU before it began. Interestingly though, they have been favored in just four of the 12 games. While they've obviously covered all four spots, note over half of the wins during the streak have been by eight points or less. I'd still be leery of laying this many points w/ them, especially on the road. Sure they are 7-3 ATS as a favorite so far in 2016-17, but this will be only the third such time on the road and by far the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Even after factoring in the current win streak, Miami's road record is still only 10-17 SU and they're being outscored by 4.3 points per game. It's not like Brooklyn is great anywhere, but at least seven of their nine wins this year have come at home. The last one was January 2nd, but as I said earlier, they've been more competitive of late. This will be their third time facing Miami during the Heat's current win streak and both times the Nets have played them tough. The first meeting, which took place here in Brooklyn on 1.25 saw them blow an 18-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Five days later down in Miami was another close one as the Nets only lost by eight despite a massive discrepancy from behind the three-point line (outscored 33-12). I simply believe that both team's disparate streaks are due to end some time and why not simultaneously? A couple of weeks ago, it would have been considered insane to see Miami in this price range on the road. 8* Brooklyn |
|||||||
02-10-17 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Saturday, I played against Akron and they promptly dropped their first MAC game of the season, 85-70 at Ohio. In my analysis for that game, I'd brought up how the Zips should be considered one of the luckiest teams in the entire country as they could boast six wins by five points or less. Well, you can now make that number SEVEN (wins by 5 pts or less) as they rebounded from the loss to OU by beating Ball State 65-63 on Tuesday. They were nine-point favorites though, so they failed to cover for a fourth consecutive game. Tonight finds the Zips playing at Eastern Michigan. EMU was leading the MAC West for much of the season, that was until this current three-game losing streak that they're on. But I have them bouncing back here in Ypsilanti. Akron does hold a 70-63 win over Eastern Michigan, back on January 20th. But remember they'd also beaten Ohio at home too. That loss by Eastern Michigan was what started the current slide as they've not only lost three straight, but also five of six overall. Two of those have come at home as favorites. They are still more than alive in the division, however, as all but one team in the MAC West is separated by just one game in the standings. Meanwhile, still w/ a sizable lead in the East, might we start to see some complacency set in w/ Akron? Note that the Zips' last three wins have all been by three points or less and by a total of six points. While they are a dominant home team (won 29 straight!), results on the road have been so-so as Akron is just 3-5 SU in "true" road games this year and 13-19 SU the L3 seasons. Eastern Michigan averages an impressive 88.0 PPG at home. Two Saturdays ago, they were a play for me as they went to Miami and recorded their 1st win in Oxford in over 20 years and did so in pretty dominant fashion. Since that time though, they've dropped three straight. In all three games, free throw shooting was an issue for the Eagles. Against both Kent State and Northern Illinois, they watched as opponents got to the charity stripe w/ tremendous regularity. Tuesday in Toledo saw them get to the line only EIGHT times themselves while the Rockets shot a blistering 53% for the game including 10 made three-pointers. But with an avg MOV of 19.5 PPG at home, I can't help but think EMU is a tremendous value, especially in such a desperation spot. 10* Eastern Michigan |
|||||||
02-09-17 | Louisiana Tech -5.5 v. UTEP | Top | 62-61 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Louisiana Tech (9:00 ET): La Tech is 16-8 SU overall and currently in second place in Conference USA. They trail Middle Tennessee by only two games. A one-point loss way back on January 7th to UTSA (were 16.5-pt favorites) still looms large. But I believe the Bulldogs can certainly still end up finishing in first place, although it will be tough considering they've already lost to MTSU. For this game, I feel they're drastically undervalued. Part of it is a four-game ATS losing streak. The other half of the equation is UTEP has pulled not one, not two, but THREE consecutive upsets. They were underdogs of seven points or more all three times. The latest saw the Miners beat Middle Tennessee at home Saturday, 57-54 as 11-point dogs. They can't do it again, can they? I'll lay the points. These two met back on January 5th and it was all La Tech in 20-point (64-44) win in Ruston. Neither team shot well (both below 40%), but a key difference was La Tech making 10 three-pointers while UTEP only made two. The Bulldogs offense was again on full display Saturday night w/ a 94-point effort Saturday against Marshall. Granted, the defense wasn't very good (gave up 90 pts), but I don't think UTEP is capable of that kind of point production. Even with the recent resurgence, UTEP has scored more than 66 points only twice in its last 10 games! Prior to winning six of their last seven, UTEP was just 2-13 SU on the year. So color me skeptical of them. Teams have not shot the ball well against the Miners recently as Middle Tennessee was actually the first in the L6 games to be above 40%. You have to tip your cap to UTEP for handing MTSU its first league loss of the year. But they actually trailed 27-16 at the half and didn't take their first lead until there were less than three minutes left in the game. It was a similar story last week against UAB as the Miners trailed that game 28-19 at halftime before rallying to win 63-59 as seven-point dogs. As impressive a run as this has been, eventually the Miners will revert back to the team we saw earlier in the year. 8* Louisiana Tech |
|||||||
02-09-17 | Rockets v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Both of these teams won as large favorites on Tuesday. However, while Houston covered, Charlotte did not. The Hornets at least snapped their long losing streak (seven games!) by beating Brooklyn 111-107. However, it should be pointed out that the Hornets held a 17-point halftime lead and controlled the game despite a pretty poor shooting performance. Houston, on the other hand, pulled away late from Orlando in a 128-104 win and cover. They too had a big halftime edge, but also had to outscore the lowly Magic 34-20 in the fourth quarter to grab the cash. Charlotte's recent struggles have had more to do w/ injuries than anything else and now they're healthier. Houston hasn't exactly been tearing it up at the betting window either. Take the points w/ the home dog. Even after losing seven in a row and falling to ninth place in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets still sport the East's fifth best point differential and net efficiency rating (those two things are tied together). The recent schedule hasn't been all that kind as they had to play the Warriors twice, not to mention the Wizards and Jazz, who are two of the hottest teams in the league. I mentioned they didn't shoot well Tuesday vs. Brooklyn. They finished the game at 39.2% including 7 of 26 from three-point range. They should shoot much better tonight. Houston is not known for its defense and gives up 110.8 PPG on the road. Cody Zeller might finally return to the lineup tonight, but regardless, seven Hornets scored in double figures vs. the Nets. This team is 16-10 SU at home this year and this will be just the FOURTH time they've gotten points here. Houston is only 4-4 SU its last eight games and an even worse 2-6 against the spread. Though they did defeat Charlotte 121-114 at home last month (led by 20 at half), I don't think they should be laying this many points on the road. While the Rockets have one of the league's best ATS road records (18-11), that's because they are 7-1 as dogs. I simply believe Charlotte is due to turn it around, both in the standings and at the pay window. They are a great value as a home dog in this spot. 10* Charlotte |
|||||||
02-09-17 | Rice v. Florida International +6.5 | Top | 89-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Florida International (7:00 ET): According to KenPom, FIU has been one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country. That's confirmed by six losses by five points or less while they have no such victories. Of course, the Panthers have won only five games all season and just one of their last 10! They are coming off a 15-point loss at Charlotte Saturday, which dropped them to 0-10 SU in "true" road games. But here at home, they've been far more competitve (outscoring opponents!) and I like the spot hosting a Rice team that will be laying points for a second straight road game. The favored Owls did cover Saturday as they won 95-80 (sound familiar), but that was against North Texas, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country! Take the points. As you might guess, FIU shoots the ball a lot better at home. They are at 48.9% overall from the field including 38.1% from three-point range. Then again, offense certainly wasn't the issue Saturday against Charlotte, who shot a blistering 59.6% from the field against the Panthers. Expect the defense to be better tonight simply because it can't be any worse than it was there. Now Rice is a top 25 offense in terms of points per game, but they've also been able to take advantage of what has been a really weak recent schedule. You would not expect a team like Rice to be 3-0 SU as road favorites, but they are. However, covering in that spot twice in a row is unfamiliar territory. Rice's defense also gets significantly worse away from home. They allow opponents to shoot 46.7% from the field in road games. Curiously, the Owls are 0-9 ATS their L9 Thursday games. The last one, they lost to Old Dominion, outright, as 4-point favorites. Something else that should be noted here is Rice had been off for a full week heading into the North Texas game. This week, they play not only here at FIU, but at FAU on Saturday. The home team has won each of the last two meetings between these schools. Look for this one to be closer than expected w/ an outright upset a distinct possibility. 10* Florida International |
|||||||
02-08-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 132-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For a second straight game, the defending NBA Champs will pay visit to a red-hot team. Monday saw them go to D.C. to take on a Wizards team that had won 17 straight at home and 11 of 12 overall. It took overtime - and a miraculous shot by LeBron James at the end of regulation - but the Cavs did emerge victorious by a score of 140-135. Now they take on an Indiana team has won seven straight games. While it may seem like a tough spot for LeBron and company, I think all the chatter about "what's wrong" with this team has galvanized them and we're about to see them go on a bit of a run. I'm actually disregarding my own numbers on this one as I feel the Cavs' net efficiency is a bit misleading due to James missing a few games. One of those was against Indiana on November 16th. Cleveland gets revenge here. Lay the points. Indiana is actually 8-1 ATS its last nine games vs. Cleveland, but they've benefited from James sitting out multiple times during that streak. Back in November, it was a 103-93 win here at home over the Cavs. Incredibly, that was the fourth time in the past two years that the Pacers got to play Cleveland at home with James resting. But let's be clear, LeBron is playing tonight and coming off an outstanding performance against the Wizards where he went for 32 points and 17 assists. Something to keep in mind is that James fouled out in overtime and the Cavs still won, thanks to Kyrie Irving scoring 11 of his 23 points in overtime. Kevin Love, the subject of trade rumors, scored 39 points and had 12 rebounds. Love might very well be in store for another big game tonight as he went for 27-16 in that November meeting. Indiana could be w/o Thaddeus Young here, which would make defending Love all the more difficult. Indiana's defense has been a lot better of late with them holding four straight opponents below 100 ptsa and three of them to 90 or less. But none of those teams were Cleveland, who ranks fifth in the league in offensive efficiency and makes 39% of its three-point attempts. In fact, the Pacers' last four opponents all rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency and yes that includes Oklahoma City. While the Pacers have been tough at home all season, I view this as another statement game for Cleveland, who has quietly covered its last three games. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
02-08-17 | South Florida v. Connecticut -13 | Top | 51-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Like Xavier-DePaul, this is another game where the home team should roll. UConn is looking to bounce back from an 82-68 loss at Cincinnati (the top team in the American) on Saturday and has the perfect opponent to do just that. South Florida has yet to win a game in conference play and I don't see them starting tonight. UConn already beat USF once this year, by 21 down in Tampa, and were 7.5-point favorites when they did so. Using that number as our baseline, it would seem as if tonight's line should be several points higher. Lay the points. I will concede right off the bat that this is not your typical strong UConn team. Barring some miraculous late season run or winning the AAC Tournament, they will not even make the field of 68. They trailed the whole way Saturday against Cincinnati, but again that's a very good team they were facing. Because of injuries, they've been down to as few as six scholarship players at times this year, but it appears as if both Juwan Durham and Steven Enonch will be back tonight from their respective foot injuries. Prior to losing to Cincy, the Huskies were on a season-best three-game win streak. They've won four in a row here at home. I suspect we'll see a lot better defense from Kevin Ollie's team tonight after they gave up 82 points to Cincinnati. That was the most allowed in any conference game this season. Also helping the UConn defense in this one is the fact South Florida comes in averaging only 62.4 PPG in conference play. They have lost all 11 American games by an average of 16.4 points. Their last win came all the way back on 12.22 vs. Delaware. They only time they won a road game this year came back on 12.1 at Troy. What's real concerning here for the Bulls is they just shot better than 50% in B2B games and still lost - comfortably - both times. I would expect a sharp decline in the team's overall shooting tonight as UConn holds its visitors to just 61.2 PPG at home. Don't be too fooled by the final score from Saturday (83-74) as the Bulls actually trailed Temple by 23 at the half and only shortened the margin once the game was well in hand. The first time these teams met, USF allowed UConn to make 12 three-pointers. 8* Connecticut |
|||||||
02-08-17 | South Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne -6.5 | Top | 93-82 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
8* IPFW (7:00 ET): Among schools whose games were regularly lined, Fort Wayne was the top ATS team in the country last year at 21-8 (72.4%). Despite the predictable regression in that department this year (they're just 7-11 ATS) and the fact they are just 5-5 SU in conference play, I still view this as the best team in the Summit League. One thing is for sure and that's the Mastadons take care of business at home where they are 11-1 SU and averaging a whopping 95.9 PPG. Tonight, they look to rebound from a tough road loss at Denver as they host South Dakota in what is a revenge spot. I look for the Mastadons to win big in this one. Lay the points. IPFW lost to Denver at the buzzer - in overtime - on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in the last six games, a far cry from last season when they lost only four conference games all season and were the top seed entering the Summit League Tournament (were upset in the semfinals). But again, I feel that the homecourt edge tonight will be the difference maker. The Mastadons have not only covered 19 of their last 27 games played on this floor, but they've topped 100 pts in three of the last four home games! It's been a road-heavy schedule that's contributed to the downturn of late. This will be just the second home game for the Mastadons in the last month. The first saw them beat rival IUPUI by 30 on January 25th. South Dakota pulled an upset over IPFW at home on January 14th. It was an ugly 66-63 game where neither side shot well. Unfortunately for the Coyotes, they won't be able to count on Ft. Wayne shooting that poorly again. Especially considering they give up 78.7 PPG away from home to begin with. South Dakota pulled an upset Saturday, beating the first place team in the Summit (North Dakota State), 76-66 as six-point underdogs. But this will now be their third consecutive road game. They've shot above 50% from the floor in the first two, but I do not see that trend continuing this evening. Note IPFW is a strong 9-1 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* IPFW |
|||||||
02-08-17 | DePaul v. Xavier -15.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
8* Xavier (6:30 ET): The Musketeers just upset Creighton, 82-80 as five-point dogs on Saturday, and did so w/o the services of Edmond Sumner. Sumner (knee) was lost for the year in late January and remember that Myles Davis has also left the team. So there's plenty of attrition going on here, but it didn't stop the team from recording its first win over an RPI Top 25 opponent on Saturday. If the Musketeers were able to down a team like Creighton, then certainly they should have little difficulty here against Big East lightweight DePaul, right? The Blue Demons enter this contest having lost all but one league game and they are 0-9 SU on the road as well. Let's continue to take advantage of Xavier still being undervalued in the wake of some personnel looses. Lay the points. How did Xavier upset Creighton? Well, let's start by pointing out that they shot better than 50 percent from the field and got really hot late. Five three-pointers were the key during a 19-7 second half run which essentially decided the game. It also helped that Creighton missed free throws. Now starting in place of Sumner, Quentin Goodin scored 15 points. It was the Musketeers third straight win, so they've yet to lose since the Sumner injury. All three wins have been close, but tonight marks - by far - their easiest league game of the season. Xavier is 11-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 14.8 points per game. They've beaten DePaul by double digits three straight times, including twice last season. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as home favorites of 12.5 or more points. Saying DePaul is "not good" would be putting it mildly. Their only Big East win of the season came by a single point, at home, vs. Providence. True road games have been a complete disaster as they've lost all six (also 0-3 at neutral sites) by an average margin of 17.1 points per game. They come into tonight off a 13-point loss to Marquette, at home. They gave up 92 points there and that's not a good sign when you only average 62.0 per game on the road. Incredibly, the Blue Demons are shooting just 35.7% from the field this season when away from home. That includes an atrocious 24.9% from three-point range! At the same time, they allow opponents to make 48.7% of their FG attempts and 38.2% from three-point range when they are the road team. This should be a blowout. 8* Xavier |
|||||||
02-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 57-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Michigan (9:00 ET): When these teams met nine days ago in East Lansing, Michigan State was a desperate team. They entered the game on a three-game losing streak. However, they were able to defeat the rival Wolverines 70-62 as slight three-point favorites even though the sharper dollars appeared to be on the other side. Now it's Michigan that's desperate. They lost here in Ann Arbor to Ohio State over the weekend, 70-66 as four-point chalk, dropping them to just 4-6 straight up in Big 10 play. However, I don't see them dropping B2B home games. After all, they are 12-3 SU this year in Ann Arbor, holding opponents to just 62.0 points per game. Therefore, I'll lay the short number. Michigan State was a play for me last Thursday as they went to Nebraska and won 72-61 as a short road favorite. So it's now B2B wins for Sparty and they were off this weekend. But this team simply isn't as strong an outfit as we're used to seeing under HC Tom Izzo. Thursday marked just their second "true" road win of the year and when they're not a home favorite, the team's record is just 5-8 SU this season. They did shoot a blistering 63 percent from the field in the second half against Nebraska, but that's unlikely to be matched here due to the Michigan defense not to mention the simple laws of regression. They also made 11 of 17 three-point field goals in that game, which is well above their norm. Michigan is better at home primarily because the defensive numbers improve so much, but they also shoot the ball slightly better. They did not shoot the ball well at all in the first meeting w/ MSU, finishing that game at just 33.9% from the field including 7 of 26 from three-point range. Note that prior to suffering that loss in East Lansing, the Wolverines had just blown out Indiana by 30 (here at home) the game previous. While MSU is considered "safely" in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) right now, Michigan is right on the bubble. They BADLY need to win this game and I think they will as the hot shooting we're used to seeing from John Beilein teams should return. They were only 37.3% from the field against Ohio State Saturday, which was pretty shocking. 10* Michigan |
|||||||
02-07-17 | Nets v. Hornets -10.5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Neither of these teams have been playing well of late. The Hornets have lost seven in a row to fall out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. I did cash them plus the points Saturday, however, as they lost by only seven at Utah. On the bright side, that marked the first time they covered a game during this losing streak. Of course, that's nothing compared to what Brooklyn has gone through this season. The Nets have just ONE win since X-Mas and have lost their last nine games. While they've been somewhat competitive in the last four (all decided by single digits), the fact is this team has just two road wins all year and isn't going to win tonight. Charlotte is better than its record shows. As I mentioned in Saturday's analysis, they have the fifth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. Lay the points. While I believe the Hornets are better than their 23-28 SU record, they have actually struggled against the Nets this year. They're 0-3 ATS against them so far this season, including an outright loss (in Brooklyn) back in December. When they hosted the Nets last month, they were favored by 12 and won by only seven. That game saw Brooklyn make 17 three-pointers, which is atypical. The Hornets haven't won since, but have had to play Golden State twice, not to mention a couple of red-hot teams in Washington and Utah. Saturday night in Utah saw them enter the fourth quarter w/ a nine-point lead only to get outscored 32-16 over the final 12 minutes. It should be pointed out that leading scorer Kemba Walker was sick going into that game, but is now reportedly feeling better. No matter what way you slice it, Brooklyn is the worst team in the league. They have lost 20 of 21 games since beating Charlotte at home on 12.26. On the road, they give up an average of 117.5 PPG. What's really scary if you're a Nets fan (besides still being a Nets fan) is that the team has actually played better defense of late and is still losing. It's last three games, opponents have shot only 41.6 percent against them. Over the L5 games, they're giving up an average of "only" 107.4 PPG. Given they are last in the league defensively, I expect this to lead to Charlotte having its best offensive output in some time tonight. The price is high here and I know Charlotte hasn't been good of late. But if there's any recipe for a turnaround, it's a visit from Brooklyn. I like the addition of Miles Plumlee to the roster as well. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Pun intended, but the Heat are red hot right now. They arrive in the Twin Cities riding a 10-game win streak where they are also 10-0 ATS. For much of the year, in my weekly power rankings column, I made the case that this team was better than its record. But in saying that, I never would have expected this! Speaking of "better than it's record," the T'wolves are a team that should have a lot more wins. They've lost three in a row to drop to 19-32 SU on the year, but interestingly have the Western Conference's eighth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating. In addition to the three-game losing streak, mor bad news came down over the weekend when it was announced Zach LaVine was done for the year w/ an ACL injury. Still though, I believe they have enought - at home - to snap Miami's stunning win streak. Though LaVine is one of three under-22 (year old) players on the T'wolves roster to be averaging at least 18.9 PPG and started 47 of 50 games this year, his absence may not have quite the severe impact you think. Before losing to Memphis on Saturday, the team had gone 3-0 SU/ATS w/ LaVine out of the lineup, all three wins coming by double digits. LaVine isn't a great defender and strangely PG Ricky Rubio seems to shoot a lot better when he's not on the floor. Karl Anthony Towns (double-double in 30 of last 32 games) and Andrew Wiggins are still the team's two best players. Something else to consider is that the T'wolves are 7-1 ATS this season when coming off three consecutive SU losses. They actually led Memphis by 16 after one quarter on Saturday, but it ended up being yet another game where the T'wolves blew a double digit lead (I've lost count how many times they've done that this season). Something else to consider is Minnesota is 3-7 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That record is bound to improve. Speaking of improvement, it's safe to say no one saw Miami coming. Prior to this 10-game win streak, they'd actually lost 10 of 11 and were 11-30 SU overall. Though they do have wins over both Houston and Golden State during the streak, it's largely been an easy and home-heavy schedule, which in part explains the surge. Playing Brooklyn twice and Philadelphia over the L6 games definitely helps. Offensive production has been way up of late, but they still ranks 26th in the league in efficiency. We should start to see regression there. Also, the Heat are only 8-17 SU on the road this year, averaging just 96.7 points per game. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
02-06-17 | Monmouth v. Rider +8 | Top | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Rider (7:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for MAAC-leader Monmouth. But because of that, the spread is inflated. The Hawks haven't fared too well on the conference road thus far, going 1-3 ATS w/ the one cover being a four-point win at Canisius. Of course, they also didn't fare well the first matchup vs. Rider (back on New Year's Eve) when they lost 93-90 as 14-pt home favorites. That was an overtime game that saw Monmouth fall behind by 13 at the half. They would go on to lose their next game as well (at St. Peter's), but have since won nine in a row. Still though, this line is clearly inflated if you use the number from the first meeting as our baseline. Rider certainly won't be lacking for motivation here either as they lost by 21 to Iona on Friday. Take the points here. Elsewhere on Friday, Monmouth avenged its only other MAAC loss from this season. They faced St. Peter's in a situation similar to this, only at home and the number certainly appeared to be more advantageous from their perspective. I took the bait and was let down as the Hawks only prevailed 71-70 (were -8.5) and needed OT to do so. While they initially raced out to 14-2, Monmouth struggled from that point forward, letting St. Peter's tie the game by halftime. They even faced an eight-point deficit w/ just over six minutes remaining. While this is the Hawks' second nine-game win streak of the season, note the program has NEVER won 10 consecutive games. The first time these teams matched up, Rider definitely benefited from catching Monmouth at the right time. The Hawks were off a high-profile game vs. North Carolina where they were blown out 102-74 and thus more ripe to be upset. Rider pulled off the SU dog win by outscoring the Hawks 41-28 in the first half and holding them to 38.9% shooting for the game. For tonight's rematch, another break may have already gone Rider's way as Monmouth's second leading scorer Micah Seaborn (15.4 PPG) injured his knee on Friday and may not play here. Though they average plenty of points, Monmouth is hardly a great shooting team (42.9%). Rider was on the wrong side of a pretty massive shooting discrepancy Friday vs. Iona, but the Broncs are also a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts last game. I'd be a bit surprised if Rider pulled out another SU dog win at Monmouth's expense here, but the number is generous. 10* Rider |
|||||||
02-05-17 | Colorado v. California -6.5 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
8* California (4:30 ET): It appears as if you have to be a pretty good team to beat Cal. Their last four losses have come against Virginia, Arizona, UCLA and Oregon. Sunday's opponent, Colorado, is not at that level. Yes, the Bears did lose earlier in the year to San Diego State and Seton Hall. But those were neutral site games. Here in Berkeley, the team is 13-2 SU w/ an avg MOV of +12 points per game. The only two home losses came to Virginia and Arizona by a combined nine points. It was a double overtime win here on Thursday (over Utah) and while that can take a lot out of a team, the fact that Colorado is playing its second road game of the weekend mitigates that. I can't see the Buffaloes pulling back to back upsets (won at Stanford on Thurs). Lay the points. I really like this Cal team. Even though it was a double overtime game Thursday, they never trailed Utah by more than three points. The Utes came in shooting a Pac 12 best 53.9% from the field, but Cal held them to just 41.5%. It was just the second game all year that the Bears were outrebounded. I do not think it's going to happen in B2B games. Ivan Rabb now has 11 double-doubles and the Bears blocked nine shots against Utah. There should be a massive edge inside for the home team in this game. By the way, Colorado is just 1-11 SU all-time in Berkeley. While just 1-5 ATS the L6 games, Cal has won all but one of those straight up, a visit to an Oregon team that has not lost a home game all season. Defensively, the Bears have a massive edge in this game. They allow only 59.9 PPG at home while Colorado allows 80.4 PPG on the road. Colorado is just 3-6 SU in "true" road games this year. They upset Stanford on Thursday despite a season-high 23 turnovers and making just one field goal over the final six minutes. That actually made it B2B upsets as they shocked Oregon last week in Boulder. This three-game win streak looks "nice and shiny," but remember that the Buffs opened Pac 12 play 0-7. With a tough three-game road trip looming, this is almost a "must-win" for Cal. I feel they're going to dominate the inside and score at will this afternoon. At the same time, Colorado is due to regress after pulling off a pair of upsets. 8* California |
|||||||
02-04-17 | Hawaii +6.5 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): The Warriors may be in the second game of a back to back, and off an upset, but they're getting far too many points tonight at Cal State Northridge. The host Matadors have won three consecutive games, oddly as 1-pt favorites every time, but this price range is a bit of rarefied air for them. Only twice all season have they been asked to lay this many points and both times they failed; home games against Idaho State and UC Riverside. Thus, I'll look past what is typically an unfavorable situation for Hawaii as I think they're getting enough help from the oddsmakers to make this a winning ticket. Take the points. Believe it or not, but Hawaii has played only THREE "true" road games so far. Thursday was their first win as they went to UC Riverside as 3.5-pt dogs and won outright, 72-63. It was their second consecutive win after routing UC Santa Barbara at home last Saturday by a score of 78-56. Three of the team's four Big West losses this year have been by six points or less. The only bad one was to UC Irvine, who is easily the top team in this league. Thursday saw the Warriors jump up to a huge 20-point halftime lead and then coast in the second half. They have already beating Northridge once this year, 80-77 as 2.5-point home favorites. It was pretty remarkable that they were able to win despite a -16 disadvantage in FT attempts. CS Northridge is not a good defensive team as they allow over 81 points per game. That makes them pretty unappealing as a favorite right there. They are off a wild 108-98 win over Long Beach State Thursday, their 1st game hitting triple digits on the scoreboard since a double overtime loss in 2014. The Matadors do lead the conference in points per game, but at "only" 79.1. They had trouble getting stops in the season's 1st meeting vs. Hawaii and are 1-9 ATS this year coming off a game where they allowed 80+ points. The Matadors are not only 6-17 ATS seeking revenge for a road loss, but also only 1-6 ATS at home this year. 8* Hawaii |
|||||||
02-04-17 | Hornets +9 v. Jazz | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): What has happened to the Hornets? They've totally lost their sting, that's for sure, as the team comes into Saturday on a six-game losing skid. Though it should be noted that two of the losses came to Golden State, there is no denying that Charlotte is going through its roughest patch of the season. However, despite now being four games below .500 and tied for 8th in the Eastern Conference, they actually still own the fifth best point differential in the East. Tonight may seem like a tough task at Utah, especially if Kemba Walker (illness) can't go. But I believe the Hornets find a way to at least stay within the number. Utah isn't exactly a team built to blow out opponents by large margins. Take the points. The Jazz, like Charlotte, have had the last two days off. Unlike the Hornets, they are off a win. They beat Milwaukee, here at home, 104-88 as eight-point chalk. But prior to that, they'd dropped three of four straight up and were just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight. Going back further, they are only 4-11 ATS L15. Defensively, Utah is among the very best teams in the league (3rd in efficiency) and holds foes to an average of just 93.3 PPG at home. But they're also one of the few teams that doesn't average 100 PPG. In the role of favorite, the team is simply less appealing, particularly this price range. We also know that they will be w/o Rodney Hood, who is out w/ a knee injury. Charlotte will be w/o Cody Zeller and that's meant bad news in the past. They are an ugly 1-11 SU when their starting center is out of the lineup this year. But help has arrived in the form of Miles Plumlee, who is scheduled to make his Hornets debut here. With or without Walker, the team's defense can't be any worse than it was against the Warriors on Wednesday. They allowed 21 three-pointers in that game, something Utah is simply not capable of doing. I just think the Hornets are a lot better than what they've been showing of late. They did beat Utah early in the year, at home. 10* Charlotte |
|||||||
02-04-17 | UAB -7.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* UAB (4:00 ET): The Blazers just lost (on the road) to a bad UTEP team Thursday night, but will get a chance to bounce back here against one of C-USA's other bottom-feeders, that being UTSA. Given the events of 48 hours ago, UAB is now available at a far cheaper price than they ought to be. Prior to losing at UTEP, they had won seven of eight. Meanwhile, UTSA has lost four in a row. Thursday brought their first home loss of the year, to Middle Tennessee, but this may be viewed as a bit of a letdown spot by the players after hosting the league's top team. They even had a lead at halftime, but obviously could not hold on. I think it will be tough for the players to get over that disappointment. UAB is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss. Lay the points. UAB also enjoyed a halftime lead in their previous game, only to come up short. In their case, they held UTEP to only 19 first half points. But a key 14-2 second run by the Miners totally changed the game and UAB could not recover. It was a rare off night from the floor for the Blazers, who shot just 39.3% for the game, including 6 of 20 from three-point range. They also certainly did not help themselves from the FT line where they went just 9 of 18. That's a killer in what ended up being a four-point loss. I anticipate UAB's shooting will improve dramatically here as in each of the six games previous to the loss to UTEP, they were above 50% from the field. They are also normally a very good FT shooting team (76%); in fact, they are 20th in the country at the charity stripe! UTSA does well defensively, at least at home (61.4 PPG allowed), but struggles offensively. They are 325th nationally in scoring offense and 341st in FG%. The Roadrunners have been below 40% from the field in five straight games. While they've got the nice home record, most of the wins were close. They come into today off four straight double digit losses, a streak which began w/ one of the ugliest performances of this entire NCAAB season, that being a 59-39 loss at UTEP. I feel that given the disparate ways these two teams shoot the ball, there's a reciepe for a blowout here. Something that's also benefited UTSA at home this year is opponents are only making 63.4% of foul shots. That cannot possibly continue. 10* UAB |
|||||||
02-04-17 | Akron v. Ohio | Top | 70-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
10* Ohio (12:00 ET): The number of teams still w/o a conference loss continues to dwindle and THREE such teams will be an underdog on Saturday. The first is Akron, who visits MAC East rival Ohio. These teams have already met once this season w/ the Zips (obviously) winning 83-68 as six-point favorites. Since then, their cushion in the division has grown to four full games as Ohio has lost two more times, including their last time out as they fell 90-85 at Western Michigan on Tuesday. That game saw the Bobcats blow a 21-pt lead (were up 10 w/ just over 5 mins remaining). As heartbreaking a defeat as that may be, I expect OU to get over it quickly in this revenge spot. Lat the points. Ohio has not been the same since losing Antonio Campbell for the year. The senior forward was leading the team in scoring (16.4 PPG). All four league losses have come since the injury. But they've also managed to win big at both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green w/o him. Plus, they did lead WMU big on the road. The Bobcats did not have him the first time they faced Akron, so it's not as if they will have to make up lost production. They've also shot the ball at 50% or better in each of the L3 games. Here in Athens, they're 9-2 SU and holding teams to just 61.9 points per game. Those two home losses have been by a combined seven points. They happen to be the last two home games they've played. So, that's another reason motivation will be high here. Akron could also be w/o a key contributor Saturday afternoon. Michael Hughes is listed as questionable. Even with him, the Zips have been a pretty lucky team this season. Their luck rating at KenPom is actually second highest in the country, trailing only Sam Houston State. What do I mean by that? Well, for starters, they have a ton of close wins. Six by five points or less to be exact. Five of those took place in January, including the last two times they've been in action. Last Saturday, they squeaked by Buffalo by a single point, 91-90 as 7.5-pt chalk. They won that game via two free throws in the final seconds. Then on Tuesday, they had to rally back from a 14-point halftime deficit to win at Northern Illinois, 76-73. So we have a team off a huge come from behind victory visiting a team that just blew a huge lead and lost its previous game. With this also being the second of B2B road games for Akron, it's tough to like them in this spot. Ohio is 29-11 ATS its L40 games as a home favorite of three points or less. Akron goes down for the 1st time in MAC play. 10* Ohio |
|||||||
02-03-17 | Pacers v. Nets +7 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets are not a good basketball team, so why the endorsement here? Well, this is the second time in a row we find the Pacers laying points on the road. The first saw them outlast Orlando Wednesday night, 98-88. I admit that I was on the Magic there, but the longview says Indiana isn't likely to keep covering away from home. They are still just 8-15 - both SU and ATS - on the road this year. They're home tomorrow night for a game w/ Detroit and could be looking ahead. Also, they've been able to pull out some lucky wins of late. Not saying Brooklyn wins here but they will keep it within the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the points. The Nets have won just 1 of their last 19 games. So why do I think they have a chance here? Well, in addition to Indiana's road woes, the Nets have been fairly competitive of late. Four of their last five losses have come by eight points or less. Against the Knicks on Wednesday, they led most of the way before blowing the game late. They jumped out to a 27-15 first half lead and led for the first three quarters. The 38 points allowed in the first half marked a season-low. It's somewhat cruel that a team known for playing bad defense still couldn't get the job done even when holding the opponent to 35.4% shooting. Typically, Brooklyn can score. Tonight, I think they can take advantage of an Indiana team that allows nearly 110 PPG on the road. Prior to beating Orlando two nights ago, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU/ATS as road favorites. Suffice to say, this will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Earlier in the year, they came to Brooklyn as six-point favorites and lost the game outright. Consider that there have been eight times this season when the Nets have lost a game where they blew a double digit lead. They do play at the league's fastest pace, so they have that going for them. Indiana recently won a couple of games it probably didn't deserve to, including an overtime game against Sacramento last Friday. Probably time to "sell high" on this group. 10* Brooklyn |
|||||||
02-03-17 | St. Peter's v. Monmouth -8.5 | Top | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* Monmouth (7:00 ET): Though they've won eight straight and are seemingly in control of their conference, don't expect any kind of letdown from MAAC leader Monmouth in this situation. That's because they're matched up w/ the last team to beat them, St. Peter's. When these schools met back on January 2nd, the Peacocks prevailed 71-61 as 5.5-pt home dogs. That result left Monmouth at 0-2 in conference play. It was a bad shooting night for the Hawks, who scored only 19 points in first half en route to what still stands as their lowest scoring output in conference play this season. St. Peter's has remained formidable, especially when taking points, but tonight should be Monmouth's night to garner revenge. Lay the points. Like I alluded to, St. Peter's has been really strong at the betting window. They've gone 9-2 ATS L11 and since the upset of Monmouth, their only three SU losses have come by 2, 2 and 3 points. But tonight is their third consecutive road game and they are off a loss, at Iona, on Sunday. That was an overtime game as well and saw the Peacocks fail to get the job done defensively. Iona made 13 of 23 three-pointers and that's something to keep an eye on here as Monmouth makes an average of nine shots per game from behind the arc. I'm pretty surprised to see St. Peter's doing this well in conference play considering nationally they rank outside the top 300 in points, rebounds and assists per game! It should be noted that the L2 times the Peacocks have been on a three-game ATS win streak (as they are here), they've failed to cover the next time out. Monmouth is 10-1 SU at home and averaging 86 PPG. Last time here, they set the school record for points scored in a single game w/ 95 in a beatdown of Quinnipiac. That was their second straight home victory scoring 90 or more points. Monday, they poured in 83 in a double digit win at Marist. Overall, the team has won four in a row by double digits. There's some definite value here considering the Hawks were favored by 5.5 at St. Peter's last month. While they actually trailed Marist at the half Monday, I'm not too concerned given that Monmouth should shoot a lot better than 40% here. They did score 56 pts in the second half. Again, this figures to be one that the Hawks have had circled on their calendar for some time. They'll take no mercy. 10* Monmouth |
|||||||
02-02-17 | Niagara v. Fairfield -5.5 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Fairfield (8:00 ET): The opening suggested that these two MAAC teams are relatively even, but I don't believe that to be the case. Sure, Fairfield had its share of struggles in January. At one point, they'd lost five in a row, clearly bottoming out w/ a 42-point loss at Monmouth on 1.22. But since then, the Stags have rallied for B2B victories, both here at home. The last one came by 29 points, Tuesday vs. Manhattan. Niagara is also off a win, 80-67 over Rider on Saturday, but the Purple Eagles now find themselves on the road. That's a place they haven't been too often recently, in fact, only one of their previous six games took place on the road. This is a small number and Fairfield is already 5-1 ATS this season when taking on a team w/ a losing record. Lay the points. This is the first meeting of the season between these two. Fairfield swept last year while Niagara did the same in 2015. While the visitors come into this game having won three of four, two of the wins required late rallies. On 1.21, Niagara scored the game's final six points to beat St. Peter's by two. Then on Saturday, they closed on a 24-9 run to get by Rider, 80-67. That marked the Purple Eagles' largest margin of victory in a MAAC game this year. They benefited by Rider shooting only 36.8% for the game. I expect them to struggle defensively in this game, given that they allow 77.7 PPG for the season. They are just 2-9 SU on the road as well. As mentioned above, Fairfield also rolled to victory in their last game. They held Manhattan to only 25% shooting in a 78-49 win Tuesday. While it's a quick turnaround here for the Stags, I expect them to keep rolling at home. Saturday, they beat Marist here by double digits as well. At home, the Stags do a great job of defending the three-point line as they allow just 26.9% shooting from behind the arc. 10* Fairfield |
|||||||
02-02-17 | Memphis University v. South Florida +13 | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* South Florida (7:00 ET): USF got absolutely rocked in its last game, losing by 41 to the best team in the American, Cincinnati. Thus, it was a given that the number would be inflated for their next game (and it is) as they return home to host Memphis. Memphis is not as good as Cincinnati and while USF certainly has plenty of ground to make up after Saturday, this is a good value. Yes, I realize the Bulls have yet to win a single conference game this season and are averaging less than 60 PPG in AAC play. But Memphis seems unworthy of this price range, given their defensive struggles on the road and overall problems covering the spread (1-4-1 ATS L6). Take the points. South Florida has already played Memphis tough once this year, losing by only six on the road. That game took place a little over two weeks ago and was a pretty ugly affair. Had USF gotten to the FT line more than SEVEN times, perhaps they could have pulled an outright upset. They held the Tigers to 35.1% shooting. Whatever offensive improvement we see from Memphis tonight will be mitigated on the defensive end. They are giving up 76.9 PPG on the road so far this season. They are just 2-2 in American road games w/ one of the wins by only a three-point margin. Even at home, they didn't shoot the ball well Saturday, making just over 30% of their shots in an ugly 57-50 win over East Carolina. Obviously, when a team is 0-9 SU in conference play, there aren't a ton of positives to report. But South Florida is third in the league in three-point percentage and they have outscored opponents by 86 points in the painted area. As hard as it is to win conference road games, this is just way too many points for a pedestrian team like Memphis to lay. 10* South Florida |
|||||||
02-02-17 | Michigan State +1 v. Nebraska | Top | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Believe it or not, Nebraska actually swept the season series from Michigan State last year. The two wins came by a combined three points, however. Still, that makes this a big double revenge spot for HC Izzo and Sparty, who could use the win anyway. This MSU team is not as strong as per usual. Their record is only 13-9 SU and prior to beating rival Michigan on Saturday, they had dropped three in a row. Of course, this is the time of year when the Spartans traditionally "turn it on." They've gone 10-3 ATS the L2 seasons in the month of February and I do believe they're catching Nebraska at an opportune time here. The Cornhuskers just upset Purdue here in Lincoln over the weekend, so they're likely in store for a letdown. Prior to that win over Purdue, Nebraska had really been struggling. They'd lost five straight, which makes MSU's three-game skid seem like "small potatoes" by comparison. Granted, two of those five Huskers losses were decided by a single point and were decided at the buzzer. But one came to lowly Rutgers. What went right for them against Purdue? Well, two players (Jack McVeigh and Jeriah Horne) came off the bench to score a total of 37 points, which was an unlikely boost. I don't think that duo can be counted on a nightly basis. While a couple of close games may not have gone Nebraska's way recently, note all four wins in Big 10 play have been by four points or less. Then there was last season's pretty fortuitous sweep of Michigan State. What I'm saying is that another close loss tonight would not surprise me. Michigan State is still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but a loss here could do some real damage to their resume. Like Nebraska, they were able to turn things around over the weekend. Unlike Nebraska, they did it w/ defense by holding the Wolverines to just 33.9% shooting for the game, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. This is still a top 50 defense in terms of efficiency, mind you. While MSU has lost nine times, it's not as if many of those defeats were bad losses. Five of them came at the hands of Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke and Purdue. Those are all top 20 teams. I just can't see a third consecutive loss to Nebraska taking place as I would have MSU as the slight favorite, even on the road. Revenge will be theirs. 8* Michigan State |
|||||||
02-01-17 | Air Force v. Fresno State -9 | Top | 64-73 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This is another revenge spot, for Fresno, as they lost to the Flyboys last month in Colorado Springs. What followed for the Bulldogs was an impressive three-game win streak, including victories over Boise State and Nevada. But that came to a halt Saturday night w/ a bit of a surprising loss at Utah State (were 2-pt favorites). Air Force has not played since last Tuesday when they shocked San Diego State 60-57. That, ironically, snapped a three-game losing streak and was their first win since beating Fresno State back on 1.11. I look for Fresno to get its revenge here as the home court advantage is a big deal, not only considering their own 9-1 SU home mark, but the fact Air Force is winless on the road. Lay the point. The home-road disparity has played itself out for FSU throughout conference play. They're 4-0 SU at home and 1-4 SU on the road. At home, they just seem to be a bit of a different team as they average 80.0 PPG on almost 49% shooting. That one MWC road win was a big one as it came at Nevada, giving them a season sweep of the Wolfpack, who are considered to be the best the conference has to offer. This has been a bit of a covering machine this season as they're 12-4 ATS overall and 5-1 at home. A bad shooting night (35%) of their own combined w/ hot shooting from the opponent (56%) is what doomed them Saturday in Logan. But I don't see Air Force being able to create the same kind of disparity that Utah State did. Certainly not on the road. The Falcons have lost all eight times they've venture off campus this year, including six "true" road games. In the process, they are giving up an average of more than 81 PPG. It's a real stark contrast between home and away as in Colorado Springs they're outscoring opponents by double digits while on the road they are being outscored by double digits. The season best effort on the defensive end against SDSU last week isn't likely to be duplicated here as the Falcons are just 3-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 pts or less the previous game. I also think the week off can hinder more than help. Just look at FSU, who was in the same spot on Saturday (also coming off an upset). Though the AFA has covered 8 of the past 10 matchups vs. Fresno, the Bulldogs have still won eight of those straight up. 8* Fresno State |
|||||||
02-01-17 | St Bonaventure v. Duquesne +7 | Top | 71-64 | Push | 0 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
8* Duquesne (8:00 ET): The Dukes may very well always be a bottom tier team in the Atlantic 10, but tonight they're catching a nice number at home against a vulnerable St. Bonaventure squad. The Bonnies are off a loss at Rhode Island on Saturday and are now being asked to play B2B games on the road for the 1st time since conference play commenced. Duquesne, meanwhile, will just be happy to be back home following road losses to Davidson and Richmond last week. Each team's loss on Saturday can be explained by bad FG% numbers. St. Bonaventure shot just 29.5% against Rhose Island while Duquesne ALLOWED Richmond to shoot 53.4% (and gave up 101 pts in the process w/ no overtime). I feel Duquesne's defensive numbers are more likely to dramatically improve here than SBU's offensive numbers. Take the points. Scoring 90 points and not covering as a double digit dog is tough to do in this spot, but Duquesne pulled off the feat on Saturday. It was their fifth loss in a row and seventh in the last eight games. Making matters more frustrating from Saturday's ATS loss is that the Dukes actually led outright, 57-52, early in the second half! It also didn't help that Richmond essentially doubled them up at the free throw, which was key in the result at the betting window. While the conference record obviously isn't good, it's not like the Dukes were favored to win many of these games (only one, vs. St. Louis, whom they beat). It also hasn't helped that they've had to play most of the top teams in the conference. Overall, they've remained competitive as they're only being outscored by 3.0 PPG for the year. While 13-7 SU overall, St. Bonaventure's margins of victory have tended to be razor thin. Their most impressive work of the year came at neutral settings. Take those six games away and they're winning by an average margin of less than three points per game! Prior to losing at Rhode Island on Saturday (trailed wire to wire), the Bonnies needed to rally back from 18 down to overcome St. Joe's the game before. With a big home game looming vs. VCU this weekend, I look for this to be a bit of a trap spot for St. Bonaventure, who is just 2-2 ATS as a favorite in conference play. 8* Duquesne |
|||||||
02-01-17 | Pacers v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 98-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:35 ET): With a three-game win streak, Indiana has risen to sixth place in what is still a pretty weak Eastern Conference. Despite this, they've still been outscored over the course of the season. They are off an impressive upset of Houston, but that was at home. Now they hit the road where they've gone just 7-16 SU/ATS this year and giving up 110.9 points per game. Furthermore, coming off an upset win has not been an advantageous spot for them this year as they're only 1-6 ATS in the role. Granted, laying just a short number to an Orlando team that is one of the few NOT in the contention in the East might not sound all that challenging. But the Magic have been competitive the L2 games, including an outright win at Toronto. Take the points. The Magic admittedly haven't fared well in the past vs. the Pacers. They're just 1-8 SU/ATS L9 H2H meetings including an 0-2 mark this year. Both prior meetings though came in Indiana. The first saw Orlando score just 69 points. The second saw them give up 117. So there's clear work to be done on both ends of the floor here. Fortunately, leading scorer Evan Fournier (16.8 PPG) has returned to the lineup. Also, as mentioned before, Indiana is not good on the defensive end when taking its act on the road. Overall, the Pacers have allowed 100+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. Last time out, Fournier and the Magic weren't in a great spot, playing the second of B2B road games at Minnesota. They were off the upset of Toronto the night prior, but still were able to take the T'wolves into overtime before falling by only six. Back at home w/ a day off, I expect the team to play well. Indiana's win over Houston was surprising, particularly the margin of victory it came by. They shot 54% in a 120-101 outright win as three-point dogs as Paul George scored 30+ for a fourth straight game. The Pacers were also fortunate in that James Harden had an off-shooting night (3 of 17!). Speaking of good fortune, Friday's win over Sacramento would certainly qualify as they basically trailed the whole game before a furious fourth quarter rally led to overtime. I definitely put a ton of stock in the home vs. road split w/ this team as they're being outscored by 6.8 PPG on the road. As a road favorite, they're a terrible 1-6 both SU and ATS. 8* Orlando |
|||||||
02-01-17 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -9.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
10* Clemson (7:00 ET): If his team keeps it up, Georgia Tech's Josh Pastner is certainly going to win ACC Coach of the Year. He probably is worthy of some National COY discussion. That's because his Yellow Jackets, picked to do next to nothing this year, keep pulling upsets. In the last six games alone, they've won straight up four times as a dog. They're 6-0 ATS overall. That stretch started w/ a 75-63 win in Atlanta over Clemson (were +10). Tonight is the rematch w/ the Tigers, in Death Valley, and incredibly Clemson will be asked to lay fewer points here than they were on the road. Granted, CU had lost six in a row before Saturday's 67-60 win at Pitt. But this is still a good team, one that is clearly capable of winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. Lay the points. Again, I'd like to point out that Ga Tech has yet to be favored in a single ACC game! Their latest upset came on Saturday when they stunned Notre Dame on a last second buzzer beater. It was the Jackets' second victory over a top 15 team last week as they also destroyed Florida State. Both games took place in Atlanta. Against Notre Dame, they trailed by as many as 10 early and were able to overcome poor three-point shooting. Despite the impressive week (and month for that matter), you have to wonder when the Jackets will begin simply regressing to the mean. They are only 1-3 SU on the ACC road mind you. At Virginia, they managed only 49 points. At Duke, they were beaten 110-57. On the offensive end, the team has yet to shoot better than 50% in any conference game this season. Clemson may not be in the same class as a Virginia or Duke, but like those two teams, they can beat Ga Tech by double digits. Remember that the Tigers opened the year 12-2 SU. Then 2017 happened. After opening ACC play with a win at Wake Forest on New Year's Eveb, the team dropped six straight, four of the losses coming by five points or less. They've had to play North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville and Virginia. No shame in losing to those teams. Really, the only "bad" loss is the one to tonight's opponent as they were 10-pt favorites in Atlanta. In retrospect, that was clearly a bad read by the oddsmakers but that doesn't mean it's not a tremendous value now laying fewer points at home. In that first matchup, Clemson shot just 36.7% from the floor. I project major improvement from that number here as they are at 47.2% at home where they average an impressive 81.2 PPG. 10* Clemson |
|||||||
01-31-17 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -9.5 | Top | 68-77 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): Both teams here are off home losses. That said, it's still a huge benefit for San Diego State to be at home. Whether you're talking football or basketball, Wyoming sports always seems to have one of the sharpest home-road dichotomies. This year's Pokes also have a strong split in terms of being favored or an underdog. When favored, they're 10-0 SU. When they're an underdog, they're just 2-6. Take away the one time they were favored (won 80-70 over lowly San Jose State) and they're just 1-5 SU in "true" roadies with all of the losses coming by six points or more. It's been many years since they last won here at Viejas Arena. Lay the points. San Diego State was the consensus choice to win the Mountain West this year, but stumbled out of the gate, losing its first three league games. They went on to win the next three, but tonight hope to avoid a pattern as they're off B2B losses, both as favorites. First it was a road loss at Air Force last Tuesday, 60-57, as 6.5-pt chalk. That game saw the Aztecs blow a second point lead. It was another narrow setback on Saturday, this time on the road, as they lost in the final seconds at Colorado State. That was a one-point game. In fact, three of the Aztecs' five league losses have come by three points or less. All three wins have been by double digits. They do remain tops in the conference, giving up just 62.9 points per game. I really do like their chances of a bounce back here. Among Mountain West teams, Wyoming takes the most three-pointers and makes the fewest. That's a rather dubious combination. They are making less than 30 percent of their attempts from behind the arc in conference play. On the road, that number drops to a horrendous 26.5%. I think the Cowboys simply lack the firepower to keep pace here against what should be a very motivated favorite thaty's looking to bounce back from a pretty rare home defeat. 10* San Diego State |
|||||||
01-31-17 | Nuggets v. Lakers +3 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The last time that the Lakers hosted the Nuggets, oddsmakers had the game as a pick em. So there's clearly some value on the home side in this rematch, although I should point out that the Nuggets did win that last meeting, 127-121. Still, I don't believe that's enough to justify the shift in the market that's taken place. Sure the Lakers have just one SU win in the last three weeks and are w/o PG D'Angelo Russell. But the Nuggets happen to be w/o Nikola Jokic and I do not see them winning a fourth straight game here tonight. Take the points. Denver has won seven of nine overall and Jokic was a big reason for that. The big man had been averaging 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game this month. He's also shooting 60 percent from the floor this season. So his absence is going to be a big deal. The team was able to overcome it Saturday in Phoenix as they got a season-high 32 points from Danilo Gallinari and they went to the free throw line a ridiculous number of times (42), making 37. For the season, their road record is still only 9-14 SU and they are giving up 111.1 points per game overall, third most in the league. The only time that the Lakers have won since 1.8 was the last time they played at home, 108-96 over Indiana. They just played three in a row on the road and did cover Thursday night in Utah, as 14-pt dogs. They haven't played since, making this the longest stretch of time off they've had between two games all season. It should serve them well. Also, there's a lot of revenge in play here as the Lakers are 0-5 SU and ATS the last five times hosting the Nuggets. At home, the Lakers have been a lot more competitive this year and actually own a positive scoring differential! There aren't exactly a lot of "prime spots" to back the Lakers, but this is one of them. 8* LA Lakers |
|||||||
01-31-17 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (7:00 ET): Maryland is 19-2 SU and ranked #17 in the country. But, like many, I feel they have been one of the more fortunate teams in the country this year and are nowhere near as good as their record and ranking might seem to indicate. They are 8-0 as an underdog, not just against the spread, but straight up as well. So they've certainly beaten the oddsmakers' low expectations. But, eventually, regression will hit a team I do not believe to be even one of the top 40 in the nation. Yes, you read that correctly. Tonight, they're getting points at Ohio State and while that perfect record as a dog certainly has to give you pause, I'm fading the Terps in this one. While Maryland went to Minnesota on Saturday and pulled off its eighth outright upset of the year, Ohio State lost at home as a 1-pt dog to Iowa. It was the Buckeyes' second loss in the last three games and each of their previous four (before the Iowa loss) had been decided by six points or less. While OSU is only 3-6 SU in Big 10 play, they started 0-4 and have lost twice at home by two points or less. Their home record is 11-3 SU w/ visitors to Columbus averaging only 63.7 PPG. This is a revenge game too as the Bucks were swept by Maryland in LY's season series, including a close five-point loss here at home. Motivation should be especially high coming off the disappointing performance at Iowa City where they trailed by as many as 20 and let the Hawkeyes shoot 50 percent despite no Peter Jok. Not only is Maryland 8-0 SU/ATS as a dog, they've won all eight road/neutral site games as well. But this will be their fourth "true" roadie in the last five games overall and eventually that's going to catch up w/ you. It was a come from behind effort Saturday at Minnesota, a performance that is highly unlikely to be duplicated. The Terps scored 59 points in the second half and shot better than 50% for the game, including a preposterous 11 of 18 from three-point range. Maryland is a young team and what we've seen from them thus far is something I view as unsustainable. They profile as a team likely to be upset on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is 8-2 ATS after giving up 80+ points its last game. 10* Ohio State |
|||||||
01-30-17 | Georgia Southern v. Troy State -3.5 | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
|||||||
01-30-17 | Nets +9 v. Heat | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Just about any objective measure will tell you that the Nets are the worst team in basketball. That's okay though. Tonight, they are getting plenty of points against a bad team that is unaccustomed to the role of large favorite. Miami has shockingly won and covered seven straight games and as a result the market has taken notice. I think that it's important to note that only once have the Heat been favored during this win streak. Of course, it was against these Nets (by 2.5). They were fortunate that it was such a small number as they (Miami) won by only three, 109-106. That result only came about after a stunning 38-17 run to end the game. The Heat have not been favored by more than six points this season and this likely will be their high water mark as a favorite. Take the points. Brooklyn has just one win since December 26th. They have just two road wins all year. They did win on 1.20 at New Orleans by shockingly scoring 143 points. Since that win, they've been competitive in three of the last five games. Last time out was not one of them as they fell by 20 at Minnesota. But that was also the second game of a back to back (had played Cleveland the previous night). Again, they had the Heat right where they wanted them after three quarters last week. Interestingly, despite the woeful road record, the Nets actually average MORE points per game away from home (108.3). This play basically boils down to the fact that I think Miami is being severely overvalued. They've hardly dominated as four of the seven wins have been by six points or less. Prior to the streak commencing, I did feel as if the Heat were better than their record, but listen to the chatter now and it's as if people are now entertaining the notion that this might be a playoff team. That's not happening. A low-scoring, below .500 club is simply not a smart bet in this price range. The Heat have been favored only seven times all season and lost three of those games outright. 10* Brooklyn |
|||||||
01-30-17 | Texas-Arlington v. Coastal Carolina +6 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): We're going all Sun Belt with this three-game report as there are some real commonalities with the games. Here, we have Coastal Carolina hosting a revenge game against a TX-Arlington team that is playing on the road for a second time in three days. That's the dreaded spot we've been targeting the last couple days. The Mavericks did win Saturday, 83-67 as seven-point favorites over Appalachian State. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover. But I feel it will be tough for them to win/cover as a road fave for a second time in this short of a span. Coastal Carolina, a SBC newbie, still remembers what happened to them on New Year's Eve. Take the points. What happened to Coastal Carolina on NYE was a 90-69 beatdown from UT-Arlington. It was a game w/ a ton of three-point attempts (75 total!), but it was actually the Chanticleers inability to make two-point shots that hurt them. Of course, they didn't play any defense either. It's been a real "up and down" start to CC's first year in the Sun Belt as after the loss to UT Arlington, they immediately went on a four-game win streak. They've since dropped three in a row, including a two-point loss here at home to Texas State on Saturday. Their poorest offensive effort of the season was untimely considering they held the Bobcats to just 33.9% shooting. With Ga Southern losing Saturday, UT Arlington is now just one of three teams within a game of 1st place in the Sun Belt. It should be noted that the Mavericks actually trailed at the half Saturday, 32-24, before exploding for 59 second half points. They did not take their first lead of the game until there was 13:34 left. So the fact they ended up winning by 16 does not tell "the whole story." Both conference losses took place on the road, for the record (Texas State and Troy). I expect Coastal Carolina to be a lot better defensively here compared to the 1st meeting as they allow only 66.1 PPG at home for the season (opponents shooting only 38%). UT Arlington's average margin of victory as a road favorite is just 2.3 PPG. 8* Coastal Carolina |
|||||||
01-30-17 | Texas State v. Appalachian State -2 | Top | 68-55 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
|||||||
01-29-17 | Illinois State v. Evansville +7 | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
10* Evansville (4:00 ET): Has it really been since January 1st? That's the last time Evansville won a game apparently. They beat Northern Iowa 70-58 that day as short 2.5-pt home favorites. Since then, it's been seven straight losses in MVC play for the Purple Aces. What has gone wrong? Well, averaging 61.2 PPG simply isn't going to get it done this time of year. Note that this season was always considered to be a rebuilding year, but I think even the biggest pessimist would not have forecast this. With little to play for the rest of the way, facing the Missouri Valley's top team at home, in a revenge spot no less, may be the last chance to fire the Purple Aces up. With the underdog 11-4 ATS the L15 H2H meetings, I'm taking the points here. Illinois State is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. Of course, just yesterday, I targeted one such team (UNC Wilmington) and came away quite happy (they lost big, laying pts on the road). These two teams actually opened conference play against one another and it was ISU winning 62-50 in Normal. Evansville had an awful shooting night, making only 14 of 54 field goal attempts (25.9%!) including 2 of 12 from three-point range. That's still the fewest points scored by the Purple Aces in any game this season. Of note to me is the fact that Illinois State was a 7.5-point favorite for that contest. The line is essentially identical here for the rematch, despite the change in venue! Illinois State is in first place in the MVC, but they are not the best team in the league (Wichita State is). I tip my cap to the Redbirds for beating the Wheat Shockers two weeks ago (game was in Normal), but you can bet Greg Marshall will have his team ready for next weekend's big rematch. ISU stayed unbeaten in conference play w/ a narrow 71-66 win over Larry Bird's alma mater (Indiana State) on Wednesday. It was their 10th straight win, but it didn't come easy as they trailed at halftime (at home) and shot only 40.8% from the field. It's difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, let alone cover both times. The fact that Evansville allows only 61.7 PPG at home will keep them in this one. 10* Evansville |
|||||||
01-29-17 | Thunder v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (3:30 ET): It has been a miserable start to 2017 for the defending champs, who are a money burning 2-11 ATS this month. As a result, I think many will be surprised to find them laying this number to Oklahoma City. I won't be taking the "bait," however. Rather, I'm going to buy low on LeBron James and company as OKC is by no means what they once were when Kevin Durant was here. The Thunder roll into Cleveland on a three-game win streak, but they have a losing road record due to giving up an unsightly 108.2 PPG. That won't work against a Cavs team that's still among the most efficient in the league offensively. While Russell Westbrook considers to draw well-deserved praise for his individual play, the team's offensive efficiency is way down this year. Also, OKC will now be w/o Enes Kanter for the foreseeable future. Thursday night vs. Dallas, Kanter made the regrettable decision to punch a chair and ended up fracturing his forearm. His absence moving forward will drastically impact the team's rebounding, which rated among the best in the league. As alluded to earlier, this is not a great offensive team despite Westbrook putting together one of the great individual seasons in recent memory. Last season, they were right behind top ranked Golden State for the most efficient offense in the league. This year, they're down to #17! This, along with the poor defensive numbers on the road (see above), is not a good combination when facing Cleveland. LeBron did not hold back in his criticism of the Cavs' current roster construction. While they did recently add Kyle Korver, JR Smith is still out w/ an injury. Their own defense, or lack of it, remains a concern. But here at home, the team is still 20-5 SU and averaging an impressive 113.5 PPG. A 124-116 win over league-worst Brooklyn is no reason to throw a parade, but again, I view this as an opportunity to "buy low" on a team that's been a double digit favorite in four of its past five games. The Cavs swept the Thunder last season when Durant was still in the fold. Recently, OKC lost by 20+ to both the Clippers and Warriors on the road. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
01-29-17 | Green Bay v. Detroit +5 | Top | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
8* Detroit (2:00 ET): At one point, Wisc GB was the lone remaining unbeaten in the Horizon League. The Phoenix began conference play 5-0 SU, but it was hardly the most daunting slate of games. Then they dropped B2B games at Valpo (blown out) and at home to Youngstown State (stunner!). They've seemingly "reversed course" over the past week though w/ wins over Cleveland State and more notably, Oakland. The Phoenix were eight-point underdogs for their visit to Oakland, which they ended up winning straight up by eight points. But this marks the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot where I love to fade teams, particularly if they're laying points on the road. This is a proverbial letdown spot for the road chalk. Detroit is certainly hoping for a bit of a letdown from the Phoenix because they've lost three straight, giving up 100+ pts twice in the process! Ironically though, they are off an overtime loss where the final score was only 73-69. That was Friday, here at home, versus WI-Milwaukee. The Titans were short-handed for that game as starter Chris Jenkins (leading rebounder) was out w/ a hip injury. He could return today. Also, Jenkins or no Jenkins, the Titans should have won Friday. But they were an absolutely atrocious 9 of 29 from the three throw line! Such a performance cannot possibly be repeated again this season. While it's certainly been a rough season thus far for the Titans, let's take into account the Jenkins' injury and the fact they've have to play five of their last seven on the road. Remember - this team also upset Oakland on the road - as 18.5-pt underdogs. Detroit's defensive numbers definitely gave me pause initially, but then again, Wisconsin GB is no defensive stalwart by any means. The Phoenix allow 76.6 PPG, a bad number when you're favored on the road. Unlike Detroit, this team has gotten to play the majority of its Horizon League games at home thus far. In only one of the previous four, against Youngstown State (worst team in the league), were they favored. It's important to note that the Phoenix could again be w/o starting point guard Trevor Anderson. 8* Detroit |
|||||||
01-28-17 | Kings v. Hornets -7 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): This is a really rough spot for visiting Sacramento. They blew a second half lead last night in Indiana and ended up losing in overtime. This will not only be the the second game of a B2B tonight, but their sixth consecutive road game as well. Likewise, host Charlotte is playing w/o rest and off a deflating loss. The Hornets fell to to dysfunctional Knicks on the road Friday night, 110-107, their third straight loss and fourth in a row where they failed to cover. But back at home, I expect massive improvement. Charlotte swept the season series last year, both of which were high scoring affairs. I look for the road-weary Kings to simply run out of gas here. Lay the points. The current three-game losing streak leaves the Hornets a game below .500 and a precarious seventh in the Eastern Conference. But in terms of point differential and efficiency rating (which are closely tied together), they are the fourth best team in the East. Getting outscored by eight points in the fourth quarter by the Knicks is certainly not a good look. But the other two losses during this streak came to red-hot Washington and Golden State (top team in the league). Going cold in the 4Q is what cost them last night in MSG. They've now lost all seven road games in January. But at home, they remain 15-9 SU for the year, averaging 105.6 points per game. Sacramento scored 64 points in the first half last night and found itself up 16 midway through the third quarter. That's when things began to unravel for them. They had no answer for the Pacers' Paul George, who scored 33 points and made 16 of 17 free throws. Indiana ended regulation on a 17-5 run to force an extra five minutes of play. It will be very challenging for the Kings to get over the fact they just lost a road game where they outshot the opponent 50% to 37.7%. They have won just twice in nine tries in the second game of back to back this year. I should also mention that Sacramento has played B2B overtime games as they won in Cleveland Wednesday night. They are now 0-4 SU coming off an OT game this season. Remember they are down a key man (Rudy Gay) for the rest of the season. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
01-28-17 | NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary +6 | Top | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* William & Mary (4:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is still unbeaten in CAA play (20-2 SU overall) following Thursday's 87-76 win at James Madison. If one were to omit Gonzaga from the discussion, then there's probably a legit argument to be made that the Seahawks are the top mid-major in the country this season. But laying points on the road for the second time in three days can be tricky. Here they'll be taking on a William & Mary team that is not only unbeaten at home (averaging 91.5 PPG!), but will certainly be hungry for revenge after getting humiliated 16 days ago down in Wilmington, 101-77. It should be noted that W&M covered both meetings last season including an 18-point win here at home. Take the points. William & Mary is now 8-0 SU at home following Thursday's 82-58 blowout of a bad Delaware team. That win and cover actually snapped a five-game ATS losing skid. The Tribe shot almost 57% from the field in the win, including 11 of 23 from three-point range. They led by double digits most of the way. Looking back at that first meeting w/ UNCW, there are two things I expect to very different this go around. One is W&M leading scorer Daniel Dixon is highly unlikely to be held to just 10 pts again. That marked a season-low for Dixon, who averages 19.0 PPG in conference play. Also, the William & Mary defense is generally outstanding at home. They let UNCW shoot 55.7% from the floor in the first meeting. Look for that number to come way down here. UNCW has dominated the CAA the L2 seasons, but they haven't had much luck here in Harrisonburg. Their last win here came back in 2012 and overall they've dropped seven of nine to the Tribe. Last year's visit was a "real bitter pill to swallow" as they allowed 23 straight points in the second half to go from 12 up to an eventual 18-point loss. I already mentioned that W&M is averaging an outstanding 91.5 PPG here at home. Well, they're allowing only 66.5 on 40% shooting as well. UNCW couldn't miss in the first meeting, but the fact they allow 47% shooting on the road while W&M shoots 53.6% at home will lead to a dramatic reversal of fortune tonight. 10* William & Mary |
|||||||
01-28-17 | Eastern Michigan -4 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 74-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (3:30 ET): This game will carry special importance for Eastern Michigan. Not only are the Eagles coming off B2B losses, the last one coming as seven-point home faves Tues vs. Ball State, but they have not won a game here in Oxford in a LONG time. My records (go back to '97) show it's been 11 straight losses on the road to MAC rival Miami. But despite what we've seen recently, this year's Eagles team is clearly superior to the RedHawks. EMU is still tied for the lead in the MAC West, having gone 4-3 SU in conference play. Meanwhile, Miami has really struggled. They'd lost five in a row before sneaking by Buffalo (by a single point) Tuesday. I'll lay the points here as when the teams met LY in Ypsilanti, the Eagles prevailed by 25. A lack of rebounding really hurt Eastern Michigan Tuesday night in Muncie as they were -8 on the glass against Ball State and lost 88-80. Allowing 12 offensive rebounds was a real killer and I will concede rebounding is a weak spot for this team. But that's not as big of a concern when they're making shots. They come in averaging 81.0 PPG, which is tied for 36th in the country. They scored 50 in the second half alone Tuesday. After shooting below 40% each of the L2 games, I expect massive improvement tonight. Last Friday's loss at Akron (still unbeaten in conference) was certainly excusable. This is a really important game for the Eagles to win so they can at least stay tied for the division lead. As a road favorite, they are 2-0 this season, winning by an average margin of 27 points per game. Miami actually trailed Buffalo by as many as eight points Tuesday before rallying for the eight-point win. Typically not a great defensive team, the RedHawks held the Bulls to just 40% shooting for the game. Three of their previous five opponents shot at least 54% from the field. That's bad news against a potent offense like the one Eastern Michigan brings to town. By the way, EMU is holding conference opponents below 40% shooting from the floor so far this season! I feel they're ready to snap this long losing streak in Oxford, not to mention bounce back from a tough week overall. 10* Eastern Michigan |
|||||||
01-27-17 | Rockets -8 v. 76ers | Top | 123-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a firm believer in regression to the mean and in the case of these two teams, that's what we should be seeing tonight. The Sixers, while certainly improved from the doldrums of the last few years, have been playing above their heads of late. They just won at Milwaukee two nights ago (were 11-pt dogs) and are 8-2 STRAIGHT UP the L10 games, making this their best stretch of basketball in some time. Houston, on the other hand, has lost two in a row as favorites. I played against them Monday in Milwaukee and then they again failed to get the job done in Boston. But this remains one of the best teams in the league right now. It may seem like a lot of points to lay given Philly's recent play, but do it. Earlier this season, Houston beat Philadelphia 115-88 as 11-pt home favorites. In terms of offense, this remains a major mismatch. The Rockets are third in the league in offensive efficiency while the Sixers are 30th (by a comfortable margin). With the increase in scoring we've seen this season, there just aren't many teams still scoring below 100 PPG, but you can count Philly among them. Meanwhile, Houston averages the second most points per game in the league (114.3), trailing only Golden State. I just don't see how the 76ers will be able to keep pace here, especially w/o Joel Embiid. Defensively, it's not as if they are that superior to the Rockets where it can negate the massive edge Houston has offensively. Houston has lost three of four due to the fact they've allowed 120+ in all three losses. That won't be an issue here, trust me. Philly is off two of its best offensive showings of the year and shot 53.3% vs. Milwaukee. But I can't see them sustaining that. The Rockets are also 16-6 ATS this season when faced w/ a team with a losing record. 8* Houston |
|||||||
01-27-17 | Brown v. Yale -10 | Top | 75-85 | Push | 0 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Yale (8:00 ET): These Ivy League schools just met last Friday w/ Yale winning 75-74. They were 6.5-pt road favorites in the contest, so even w/ the non-cover, it does appear there's value here with the Bulldogs back in Connecticut. Brown was able to keep pace last week due to the three-pointer (they made 12 compared to just five for Yale), but on the road, the Bears' shooting from long distance predictably dips. Furthermore, when they are the road team, Brown is allowing opponents to shoot a ghastly 53.2% from the floor. Lay the points Tonight marks Yale's first home game in Ivy League play. They won two of three on the road so far, only losing to conference favorite Princeton. The Bulldogs won all six non-conference home games by an average of 22.1 points per game. Yes, that number is somewhat skewed due to a 102-46 win over Mitchell College on January 7th, but the last four wins have all come by double digit margins. They also have beaten Brown five straight times overall. They are 15-4 ATS L19 Friday games and 14-4 ATS when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Brown is just 2-7 SU away from home this year due in large part to giving up over 80 PPG. They did win at Penn on 1.14, but also lost by 31 at Princeton the previous night. Yake has actually won 20 in a row at home (nation's 5th longest streak!), so this is a tough place to come in and win. Yes, Brown led by 12 at the half last Friday, but that was at home and I do not anticipate any kind of similar deficit taking place here. Yale is not only the Ivy League leaders in assists and rebounds per game, they are the top shooting team as well. They also commit the fewest fouls per game in the entire country! That's huge because Brown is the top FT shooting team in the league. Take away that part of the Bears' game and it should be a long night here. 10* Yale |
|||||||
01-27-17 | Kings v. Pacers -4 | Top | 111-115 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for the Pacers, who won last night in Minnesota. Paul George led the way w/ 32 points and the team shot 51.9% from the floor (55% from three-point range!) in a 109-103 final. They now are a game over .500 and sixth in the Eastern Conference (sad?). For Sacramento, this is game #5 of what will eventually be an eight-game trip. They'll be in Charlotte tomorrow night. It's been back to back upsets pulled by the Kings, the last one coming in overtime, as 11-pt underdogs in Cleveland. It's difficult not to imagine there won't be some regression here, so I'll lay the short number w/ the Pacers, who are 16-6 SU at home. Now I know this scenario hasn't been the most ideal for Indiana. They are 1-7 - both SU and ATS - in the second game of a back to back this season. They are also just 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU) coming off a SU win as a dog. But it's key to point out that five of the losses when unrested came on the road, four of them in the second of B2B road games. Here at home, they've been a bit sharper due to averaging 106.9 PPG overall. They are 13-2 SU when favored here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. They just beat the Kings less than 10 days ago (in Sacramento, obviously) by a score of 106-100 as two-point dogs. I was shocked to learn that the Kings had swept the previous two season series. I have zero issue calling for a reversal of that trend tonight. Indiana actually trailed by as many as 19 in their win at Sacramento on 1.18. Suffice to say, they shouldn't have to overcome any such deficit here tonight. While credit should be given for winning at both Detroit and especially Cleveland, all is not well w/ the Kings. It just seems as if Boogie Cousins (despite clearly being the best player here) and the organization will never get on the same page. The key here could lie on the defensive end as Indiana holds visiting teams to just 42.8% shooting here at home while Sacramento has allowed 47.4% its L5 games. Prior to winning its last two games, Sacramento had won just twice in its previous 12 games. 10* Indiana |
|||||||
01-26-17 | Mavs +9.5 v. Thunder | Top | 98-109 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Both the Mavs and Thunder won last night, the former at home and the latter on the road. They'll be switching jerseys tonight as OKC plays host. This is the first meeting between the teams since LY's playoffs when the Thunder eliminated the Mavs in five games. In fact, OKC really owned Dallas last year, taking eight of nine overall matchups. Sure, it's pretty clear that the Mavs won't be back in the playoffs this year (would be just 2nd time missing them this century), but since that dreadful 5-18 SU start, they've actually played .500 ball. They have covered six of their last seven games, the lone non-cover being a four-point loss. For Oklahoma City, this is their first game back home after a LONG road trip. The Mavs have been a bit short-handed during their recent win streak, which makes the results all the more impressive. Andrew Bogut did return to the lineup Wednesday. But Deron Williams (toe), Dirk Nowitzki (rest) and Wesley Matthews (hip) could all be MIA. But two of those three didn't play last night either when they comfortably defeated the Knicks. While Carmelo Anthony went for 30 pts against them, he was shut out in the fourth quarter. Harrison Barnes (23 pts) and Seth Curry (20) led the way for Dallas, who was able to win comfortably despite being outrebounded and not shooting the ball particularly well. Curry is shooting better than 50% from three-point range the L7 games and averaging 14.4 PPG. After this game, Oklahoma City will be back on the road for games at Cleveland and San Antonio. Might they be looking ahead to those? They went just 3-3 SU on the recently completed trip w/ all three losses coming by double digits. Led by yet another triple double from Russell Westbrook, the Thunder won in New Orleans last night thanks to a big first half. But they are just 2-6 SU in the second game of a back to back. Granted, Dallas is 0-8 SU, but OKC is the one laying points here. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
01-26-17 | SE Missouri State v. Murray State -8.5 | Top | 75-74 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
8* Murray State (8:00 ET): This may seem like a bit of an "odd" game to choose, but after suffering an outright loss at Austin Peay on Saturday, I expect Murray State to bounce back in a major way tonight at home against SE Missouri State. Thus far, the Racers have gotten to play only two OVC games at home. Both were wins, against Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky. They've also won three of five on the conference road w/ both losses coming by four points or less. Meanwhile, SE Missouri State was just able to take care of some advantageous scheduling as they drew the two weakest teams in the OVC and beat both at home. Lay the points. It was an overtime loss for Murray State on Saturday to Austin Peay. Nevertheless, they still lead the West Division in the OVC. Going into Austin Peay, the Racers had won three in a row. They led at the half. Here at home, the team averages 86.5 PPG and is 7-1 SU. They destroyed SE Missouri State here last season, winning by 27 points. SE Missouri State has been a disaster away from home, going just 1-11 straight up. All but two of those losses were in "true" road games. They are being outscored by 9.4 PPG in them. At no point this season have the Indians won three straight games. Like I said earlier, they just got to host the two worst teams in the OVC (SIU Edwardsville and E Illinois). At one point in December, this team lost seven in a row, including a home game to Chicago State. 8* Murray State |
|||||||
01-26-17 | NC-Wilmington v. James Madison +10 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* James Madison (7:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is one of only a handful of teams still w/o a conference loss. In what is a REALLY down year for "mid majors," the Seahawks are making a case that they could be the best in the nation. They're 19-2 SU w/ the losses coming at Clemson and Middle Tennessee (the other top mid major). They've gone a perfect 8-0 so far against the rest of the Colonial, winning by an average margin of 13 PPG. But I believe tonight to be a tricky spot as they're laying double digits on the road. It's a virtual certainty that they'll be getting James Madison's best shot here as the Dukes will be happy to be back home following consecutive road losses. Take the points. While James Madison has dropped four of its last five, two of those losses were by two points or less. Since the start of CAA play, the Duke have gone 3-1 SU at home. The one loss was by two points against College of Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference. Over the last week, they've gone 0 for 2 on the road w/ a one-point loss at William & Mary and then a second loss to Charleston, this time by 13. But despite falling by double digits, the game was actually pretty even. There were six ties and 10 lead changes, but a 35-18 edge in FT attempts for Charleston largely determined the final score. It was also a tough spot for JMU as Charleston was coming off its first CAA loss, to UNC Wilmington no less. UNC Wilmington won its game by 13 on Saturday, but did not cover as huge 18-pt favorites at Drexel. Again, that was another game that was close at the half, but the home team was able to pull away late (even though they were just 9 of 34 from three-point range). Clearly, we've reached a point where the lines are inflated on this team in conference play. The Seahawks have scored at least 84 in five of their past six games, but here I look for them to struggle offensively as JMU is giving up just 66.8 PPG. Also, this is a big revenge spot for JMU as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against UNCW. 10* James Madison |
|||||||
01-26-17 | Hofstra v. Drexel +4 | Top | 80-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
8* Drexel (7:00 ET): Drexel is not having a good season at all as they have just one conference win against six losses. Tonight, they host CAA rival Hofstra in a big revenge spot. Hofstra has won all five H2H meetings between the schools the last two seasons, including a 3-0 sweep in 2016. But it's not as if the Pride are having themselves a memorable campaign here in 2017 either. They are just 2-6 in conference play, one of those victories coming Saturday at home against Northeastern. Both league wins have been by five points or less. The idea of this team laying points on the road seems fishy to me. Lay the points. With a defense giving up an average of 81.6 points per game on the road, Hofstra hardly seems like an ideal candidate to be laying points. They were favored by eight over Delaware on the road in one of their two CAA wins. But they won that game by only two points. In fact, their two wins as road faves both came by two points as they beat Columbia 88-86 back on November 29th. The only other time they were a road fave was early in the year, at Manhattan, and they lost that game outright. Interestingly, they haven't won any games this year as an underdog (0-6). Though it was called an "upset" by some, they were actually slight favorites (-1.5) vs. Northeastern on Saturday. The Pride shot better than 54% for the game there and converted a 3-point play w/ just 17 seconds to go for the win. I just don't see Hofstra making it two in a row here. Note that Drexel ran into UNC Wilmington (see other writeup) on Saturday and played them tough for a half as they were down only four at the break. Having played the best team in the CAA twice, Drexel has clearly had the more challenging conference schedule to this point. Hofstra has lost its last three CAA road games. They are just 8-19 ATS off a conference win the L3 seasons. 8* Drexel |
|||||||
01-25-17 | UC Riverside v. Hawaii -6 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
10* Hawaii (11:59 ET): As you might expect, Hawaii is far more competitive out on the island as they're 8-6 SU here. That may not sound awe-inspiring (and it isn't), but it's also a "far cry" from what we've seen from this team on the mainland thus far, in an albeit small sample size. In four games away from home (two "true" road, two neutral), they're 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by double digit margin. Thankfully, the Warriors play at home tonight against UC Riverside, a team that is 1-9 SU in "true" road games. That one win came in their last one, last Thursday's outright triumph (were +7.5) at CS-Fullerton. They followed that win up on Saturday by beating undermanned UCSB 65-55 at home to improve to 5-0 ATS in Big West play. But I say that run comes to an end here. Lay the points. Hawaii did lose here at home Saturday, 76-70 to Cal Davis as 2.5-pt chalk. It was a close game throughout w/ the game essentially decided at the FT line late. I'm always surprised when a road team can get to the free throw with great regularity than their host, but UC Davis did it with a shocking 37 attempts there. The loss snapped Hawaii's two game win streak as they'd beaten both Long Beach State and Cal State Northridge previously. The last time they lost a game outright as home chalk, they responded w/ a 20-pt win their next time out. This was back on November 27th against Arkansas Pine Bluff. UC Riverside is not strong defensively as they give up 77 PPG on the road. Therefore, it was pretty shocking to see them hold their last opponent to just 30% shooting for the game, even if it was at home. But keep in mind that opponent, UCSB, is 331st in the country in scoring and currently w/o its second leading scorer. Prior to winning the L3 games, the first two as underdogs, the Highlanders had just three wins total in the first 14 games. They'd lost 9 of their last 10. The road team won both matchups between these Big West rivals last year, including the Highlanders pulling an upset as 14-pt dogs on the road. That won't happen again though as Hawaii should shoot a lot better this time around. They are 10-3 ATS off a conference loss, by the way. 10* Hawaii |
|||||||
01-25-17 | Lakers +9.5 v. Blazers | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): A rare play on the Lakers by me as this is way too many points for Portland to be laying, period. It is the second straight road game for LA and in the last one, they were dealt the worst loss in franchise history, losing to Dallas by 49 points. But you may be surprised to hear that even though the Lakers have now dropped six of their last seven games overall, Portland is only four up on them in the standings. This is a tricky spot for the Blazers too as they return home from a four-game East Coast trip that ended w/ an upset of Boston as eight-point dogs. But before that they'd lost four in a row - both SU and ATS. Take the points here. This is a matchup of two very poor defensive teams. The Lakers are in fact the worst in the league at the end of the floor, at least in terms of efficiency. But Portland isn't far ahead (27th) and actually allows the same number of points per game (110.5). So it's somewhat of an ideal matchup for the underdog. Also, if the players aren't motivated by what happened to them Sunday, then I don't know what to say. They shot just 38.4% against Dallas in a game where HC Luke Walton said "We didn't show up to play. . "It's embarrassing for us as a team, an organization, for our fans. The effort wasn't there. I love our group of guys. I know we're going to bring it the next game. That's not who we are, but it's frustrating what happened." Portland needed OT to upend Boston on Saturday. Perhaps the time off alleviates some of the issue w/ returning home after a long-trip. But the team has covered as a favorite only four times over its L20 games. Granted, two of those were against the Lakers, but the spread was never this high. In fact, it was only -6.5 the last time they met in the Moda Center, which was three weeks ago. The teams also met on 1.10 in LA w/ the Blazers prevailing 108-87. So this a big time revenge spot for the Lakers too as they've actually now lost 10 straight to the Blazers. The number of contributions Portland got in its last game probably won't be present again here tonight. The second worst team in the league ATS laying its biggest number of the year is prime fade material. 10* LA Lakers |
|||||||
01-25-17 | 76ers v. Bucks -11 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I went w/ the Bucks their last time out and they responded by delivering an outright victory here at home against the Rockets. That was a much needed result for this team, which had previously dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. It was also a revenge spot as one of those five straight losses had come in Houston. Given that the number for the road loss was +6.5 and the Bucks then found themselves getting 4.5 for the rematch, my thinking is that it was a tremendous value. The same rationale applies here for yet another revenge spot against Philadelphia. Last week in Philly, the Bucks lost outright (as 8.5-pt chalk). While an adjustment is necessary after that result, the fact we now don't have to lay much more in Milwaukee seems like a bargain to me. Lay the points. In that 113-104 win over the Bucks last week, the 76ers had eight player score in double figures. Chief among them was Joel Embiid, who led the way w/ 22. But Embiid will be unavailable here in this, the second game of a back to back for the team. Note that the Sixers are just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in the 2nd game of a B2B this season. They've won only 8 of 49 such games the L3 seasons. Embiid did not play last night either, but somehow the team still found a way to overcome a 19-point deficit to beat the Clippers, who are of course very short-handed themselves. Nerles Noel made his 1st start last year and performed quite admirably. But can he do it again. Remember that the Sixers still rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency, so I wouldn't expect a repeat of last night's 121-point performance nor do I envision them making 14 three-pointers again like they did LW in Milwaukee. The Bucks are off a strong offensive showing themselves as they turned in a season-best 58.8 FG% vs. Houston. Their 127 points scored were also the most in any game this season. However, the difference between them and Philly is that the Bucks lead the Eastern Conference in overall FG% (47.4), trailing only the Warriors and Spurs league-wide. Led by the "Greek Freak," Giannis Antetoukounmpo, the Bucks are still a team I'm quite high on. 8* Milwaukee |
|||||||
01-24-17 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Two Big 12 teams coming off outright wins as dogs meet Tuesday night in Ames. Actually, Kansas State has won SU B2B times as dogs, turning the trick at both Oklahoma State and West Virginia's expense. The Wildcats are now a perfect 4-0 ATS taking points this season. But for whatever reason, Iowa State appears to have become a tad bit underrated, at least according to oddsmakers and public here. The Cyclones do not lose at home often and come off a 92-87 win at Oklahoma over the weekend. With some better luck in close games (four losses by 4 pts or less), they'd be high in the polls. As it stands right now, they're not even ranked. But I have them as a Top 20 team and will lay the points here. The four close losses that ISU has suffered came at the hands of Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Baylor and Kansas, all of whom are ranked in the Top 20. Three of them (Cincy the exception) checked in ranked in the Top 25 in the newest poll! So it's not as if the six losses are something the team should "hang its head" over. Saturday in Norman, it took two overtimes, but they were able to snap a two-game losing streak. The key was Deonte Burden scoring a career high 31 points. Also, they forced 25 turnovers and held OU to just 40% shooting. After falling behind early (were down 28-9!), ISU would go on to score 21 of the game's next 22 points and it was back and forth from there. Note that at home this year, the Cyclones are outscoring opponents by 23.4 PPG while holding them to a 36.1 FG%. Thus, this looks like a pretty short number to lay. Kansas State is off a big win over West Virginia (got me!), but that was in Manhattan. Their four "true" road games thus far are the four games that they've been underdogs and as mentioned before, they're 4-0 ATS including a pair of losses by two points or less (at Texas Tech and Kansas). So neither side has been that lucky in close game so far, though both did just win by less than five on Saturday. K State was able to beat WVU (1st win over ranked opponent TY) thanks to forcing turnovers (similar to ISU vs. Oklahoma) and also had to rally from a double digit first half deficit. Despite both teams profiling so similarly, I feel the home court edge is being underrated and ISU is the better team anyway. 10* Iowa State |
|||||||
01-24-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): Spirits should be high for this game as the Celtics and Wizards have developed a bit of a rivalry this season. The home team has won the previous two matchups and on January 11th in Boston, we saw tempers flare on both sides, leading to a minor scuffle at the end of the game. Washington is going so far as to wear "all black uniforms" Tuesday night and that's somewhat apropos given the team has been largely "in the black" betting wise here in 2017. An outright win last night in Charlotte marked the Wiz's sixth consecutive cover and they've now won 8 of 10 overall. Both losses, one to Boston and the other by one point at Detroit, came on the road. The team has won 13 consecutive home games dating back to December 8th. But this is also the second game of a back to back and Boston is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season as a road fave of three points or less. I'm on the visitor here. Often times, I make the argument that teams come in undervalued in the second game of a back to back. But that's not really the case here. Plus, the Wizards are just 2-7 straight up this year when playing w/o rest. Last night saw them shoot nearly 54% from the floor against Charlotte, a game they never trailed. They are now 12-2 SU this year when shooting 50% from the floor or better. But they shot just 42.9% in Boston two weeks ago, losing that one 117-108. While I've been impressed w/ the Wizards' recent ascension in the Eastern Conference standings (gone 18-8 SU L26 games overall), I still have my doubts as far as the defense goes (allow 105.7 PPG). This is not a top 10 team in either offensive or defensive efficiency, by the way. Boston enters this game off B2B losses (as favorites) to New York and Portland at home. Those are "bad" losses, so even w/o the "budding rivalry" here, you'd naturally expect the Celtics to be highly motivated coming into this one. You have to like that perfect record as a short road favorite and over the L5 games the offense is averaging more than 111 PPG. Similar to last night's play on Milwaukee where I stressed "buy low," I believe it's time to "sell high" on Washington. 8* Boston |
|||||||
01-23-17 | Rockets v. Bucks +5 | Top | 114-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): What has happened to the Bucks? One of the real early "pleasant surprises" in the Eastern Conference, they've all of a sudden dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. Four of those losses, though, took place on the road. The last two were at Orlando and Miami, not a "good look" by any means, nor was the one home loss during the streak (to Philadelphia). But as a result of the recent swoon, we're now able to grab the Bucks at a very advantageous price. Tonight marks the 1st time since a December 20th game vs. Cleveland where they've been priced as a home dog. It's for good reason as they play a red hot Houston team that just beat them by 19 last week. But of particular interest to me is the fact this line is virtually the same as it was in Houston. Good value here. Take the points. Since X-Mas, the Rockets have lost only four games (won 12). But all four losses have taken place over the course of the L7 games. The last one came at home to Golden State on Friday. But they quickly bounced back by disposing of Memphis on the road, 119-95, the following night. The size of that win has also contributed to the overinflation of this line, in my opinion. Note that when these teams met down in Houston last week, the game didn't really get out of hand until late. The Bucks did not shoot well (39.8 percent overall), particularly from three-point range (7 of 28). I expect better offensive play tonight from a team averaging 108.8 PPG at home. Remember that Houston is not a stalwart defensively. They allow 109.2 PPG on the road. That game last week, plus Saturday at Memphis, mark two of the only four times that the Rockets have held an opponent below 100 pts in the new year. It's also the only two times an opponent has shot below 40% against them. Again, I look for the Bucks to improve somewhat dramatically on the offensive end here. HC Jason Kidd has been toying w/ his lineup to no avail of late, but now that this mini Jabari Parker controversy is over (benched one game for "leaking" team info), that should be settled. If you're like me and view teams like stocks, then this would be a great time to "buy low" on the Bucks. 10* Milwaukee |
|||||||
01-23-17 | Quinnipiac v. Iona -9.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Iona (7:00 ET): While still one of the top teams in the MAAC (#2 behind Monmouth?), Iona hasn't been quite as dominant this year. Well, at least on the road. Last Tuesday, the Gaels snapped a four-game skid on the road by winning 82-67 at Manhattan. They followed that up by beating Fairfield Friday, 96-89, but failed to cover the nine-point spot at home. But tonight, for the first time, they actually get to play consecutive home games in conference play. The opponent is Quinnipiac (known for it's polling!) and this would be a revenge spot for Iona as they lost up in Hamden earlier this month, 97-91 (overtime) as seven-point favorites. Given what the line was there and the change in venue, this price looks to be a real bargain on Iona. Lay the points. In addition to being a university known for its polling, Quinnipiac has a basketball team that's been pulling it's fair share of upsets of late. Compared to other conferences, MAAC play started early this year. Quinnipiac lost its first league game, back on Dec 1, 91-72 at Monmouth. But since then, the Bobcats have roared to a 7-0-1 ATS mark in league play including three outright upsets. Two have come in the last 10 days, the last one being Friday at Canisius, a game where they allowed 58 second half pts and still won. They were fortunate to jump out to a 15-point halftime lead there and also shot 58.8% for the game (8 of 13 from 3-pt range!). I seriously doubt that they'll be able to come close to matching those numbers here on the road. It also helped that they had five days off before the Canisius game. Just to show what the market thought of this team coming into the year, Quinnipiac has been a dog in every MAAC game but one (were -1.5 vs. Manhattan). The first meeting between these teams saw Iona blow a second half lead and fall in OT. I took the Gaels their next time out as they responded w/ a 15-pt win at Manhattan. Friday vs. Fairfield, they never trailed (shot 56.9%) and won despite the opponent sinking 12 of 25 three-pointers. That game, like this one, was a revenge spot. It's important to note that Iona averages over 86 PPG at home where they've only lost one time. In all three MAAC home games, they've topped 90 points! I look for the Gaels to exact revenge yet again here against an opponent that is due to start regressing. 10* Iona |
|||||||
01-22-17 | Nuggets v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Denver rolled to a 123-98 victory over the Clippers last night. But that was at home and let us not forget how short-handed the Clips are right now (no Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin). So while the final margin of victory is still impressive, the opponent really was not. Tonight, without rest, the Nuggets now have to hit the road. They'll face a Minnesota team that while near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, is a lot better than its overall record. In fact, in terms of my own personal power rankings, there probably isn't a greater discrepancy between the ranking and WL record than what the T'wolves are currently sporting. Recently, they have shown signs of turning things around by covering six of their last seven. I'll lay the points here. Minny also just beat the Clippers in their last game, 104-101. The fact that game was played Thursday gives a big advantage to them here, especially being at home. The T'wolves are off three straight road games here, but have won three straight at home, including impressive victories over both Houston and Oklahoma City. Their only loss on a recent four-game home stand came by two points. They are 6-1 ATS this season in home games where the total is 210 or higher. I love the young talent on hand here, particularly Karl Anthony-Towns, who went for 37 points and 12 rebounds on Thursday. An often leaky Nuggets defense likely will have no answer for him. Denver enjoyed its biggest lead in any game this season last night (35) and held a team under 100 points for the 1st time since December 8th. Yes, this is one of the worst defensive teams in the league as they allow 111.6 points per game. They too have been hot (won 4 of 5), but they come to the Twin Cities w/o rest and a bit shorthanded. Both Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay are unlikely to play. That's your starting backcourt right there. So it won't be as big as deal that the T'wolves are w/o PG Ricky Rubio (could be traded). This is also a double revenge spot for Minnesota as twice they've gone down to Denver this year, both games decided by three points or less. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
01-22-17 | La Salle v. VCU -7 | Top | 52-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
10* VCU (2:00 ET): VCU might be one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 (Dayton is the best, IMO), but lately they have not played like it, dropping B2B games as favorites to Davidson and Fordham. The loss earlier this week to Fordham came in overtime and by just two points w/ the game-winning basket being scored at the buzzer. That game winner came after VCU's Justin Tillman missed the front end of a one and one (game was tied). Both losses did take place on the road. This afternoon, the Rams welcome LaSalle to the Commonwealth and I like their chances of bouncing back given not only the home record, but the Explorers' lousy defense. Lay the points. VCU is 8-1 SU at home this year, outscoring foes by 17.6 points per game. The last time they played here, they destroyed George Washington by 30. But then came the loss to Davidson last Saturday as the team shot only 35% from the floor. The Rams never led against Fordham on Wednesday (battle of "Rams") as 22 turnovers proved costly in a game where they still outshot their opponents. Defensively, I believe VCU is more than fine as they rank in the top 54 nationally, allowing just 66.1 points per game. On the offensive end, LaSalle might be first in the A-10 in FG%, but VCU is a close second. The Rams had scored 81+ in three straight games before suffering the B2B losses. LaSalle is all offense and no defense. They give up 84.9 PPG on the road, which is a pretty frightening number. They do come into this game tied for first place in the conference as they've won five in a row. But four of those wins have come at home, two of them against St. Louis and Duquesne. The L3 games have all seen the Explorers shoot the lights out (over 58% overall!), but that's not sustainable, especially against this VCU defense. Last year, these teams exchanged victories, the road team winning both times. So it's about time the host returned the favor. I look for VCU to take advantage of LaSalle's leaky defense in this one. Another edge is they've had an extra day to prepare as LaSalle's last game took place Thursday (at home vs. Davidson), a game they still allowed 83 points. 10* VCU |
|||||||
01-21-17 | West Virginia -3 v. Kansas State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (6:00 ET): I haven't even attempted to hide my affinity for Bob Huggins' West Virginia team this year. I've taken them multiple times already and with one exception (at Texas Tech), have always come out on the winning end. This evening sees them hitting the road, looking to bounce back from just their third loss of the season. Like the previous two, Wednesday's loss was close (by two points), but it was definitely the most shocking to date. As 16.5-pt favorites in Morgantown, they lost to Oklahoma in overtime. WVU's three losses this year have now come by a total of seven points, none by larger than a four-point margin. I realize Kansas State's "Octagon of Doom" is a tough place to win at, but the Mountaineers are just too good to drop B2B games. Lay the points. Kansas State is off an impressive road win as they beat Oklahoma State 96-88 (+3) on Wednesday. Of course, West Virginia has already gone to Stillwater and won by 17. In KSU's win, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. That's highly unlikely to be repeated here, even at home. Also, it's not a good sign that the Wildcats couldn't really shake the Pokes until late, even shooting as well as they did. They allowed 88 points. Nevertheless, they'll take it as they'd previously dropped three of four, including a home game to Baylor right after the Bears got whitewashed in Morgantown earlier in the week. Making matters more difficult here is the fact that PG Kamau Stokes left the Oklahoma State game w/ an ankle injury. If he can't go here (listed as questionable), good luck handling WVU's press. Nicknamed "Press Virginia," the Mountaineers lead the country by forcing 23.8 TO's per game. They are #1 in TO margin and it's not even close as they're more than double the #2 team. Given the fact KSU could be w/o its starting point guard and already is turning it over on 18.6 percent of possessions in league play, this does not appear to be a favorable matchup for them. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma, in part, due to forcing only 12 turnovers. I expect them to amp up the pressure here. This is a deep team, one of only two in the country to grab at least 40% of its own misses at the offensive end as well. 10* West Virginia |
|||||||
01-21-17 | Wizards v. Pistons -1 | Top | 112-113 | Push | 0 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:05 ET): A brutal 15-game stretch from 12.16-1.13 (went 4-11 SU) made it look like Stan Van Gundy's Pistons were in freefall. But they've since responded w/ B2B wins. Beating the Lakers by five is certainly nothing to "write home about," however, Wednesday's dominating performance against what has been a red hot Atlanta team certainly was. Here at home, Detroit won 118-95 as 2.5-pt home dogs. Now they turn around and host another team they'll likely be fighting with for playoff position. That would be the Wizards, who has been playing well, like Atlanta was. But a key (for me) in handicapping this matchup is that it's in the Motor City. Washington is just 5-13 SU on the road this year and that's after a three-point win over the sorry Knicks Thursday. The Wiz come in riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak. They were the betting favorite in all four games, although just a slight one in each of the last three, which explains a 3-0 ATS mark despite two of the wins coming by only three points each. As you'd expect, John Wall is leading this charge w/ averages of 25+ points and 10+ assists per game. Offensively, the team has scored at least 100 points in nine consecutive games. But defensively, there are issues, particularly on the road where they give up 108.2 PPG. That's the primary reason for the subpar record away from D.C. and overall this team does not defend the three-point line well. At the same time, their own three-point shooting declines on the road, down to only 31.3 percent. Looking at the team's five road wins, none have come against an opponent w/ a winning record. Detroit dominated Atlanta from the start on Wednesday, scoring a season-best 42 points in the first quarter and they never once trailed. But, make no mistake about it, defense will carry this team if it ends up going anywhere of consequence. They held Atlanta below 40 percent shooting and it should be noted that despite the recent rough stretch, the Pistons still rank a solid 12th in defensive efficiency (were much higher before the slide). This is also a revenge spot too for a game they allowed Washington to shoot 57.1% from the floor. That actually begat the 4-11 slide. The game was also in D.C. Furthermore, the Pistons are now a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Their average margin of victory in those games, including Wednesday's win over Atlanta, is 15.0 points per game. 10* Detroit |
|||||||
01-21-17 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -13.5 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (6:00 ET): These are the only two teams still w/o loss in SEC play. But as you can tell from the line, "not all unbeatens are created equal." While its obvious that Kentucky is the top team in its conference, a case could also be made that they are the top team in the country. The Wildcats come into Saturday ranked #5 in the country and have won six straight since their three-point loss to Louisville. Those six wins have all come in SEC play as they're outscoring foes by a whopping 20.6 points per game. Meanwhile, South Carolina might be ranked as well, but I'm not sure they're among the 35 best teams in the country, let alone top 25. Their avg MOV in conf play is less than nine points per game. I expect UK to roll here. Lay the points. Coach Cal's team has failed to cover three in a row. They're off one of their closest calls so far as they only prevailed 88-81 in Starkville against Mississippi State as 14-pt favorites. The fact that MSU shot the ball so well (54.2%) is what kept them in the game. However, I'll point out that the Wildcats were up by as many as 17 in the second half. That was their highest shooting percentage allowed for the season and only the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor (other two were N Carolina & UCLA). Offensively, there are no issues here. They've scored at least 87 pts in every league game while shooting 52.2%! Only UCLA is rated higher in offensive efficiency, nationally. South Carolina has never had much success against Kentucky. Over the past two seasons, they are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Wildcats, losing by 15, 34 and 27. The most lopsided loss came here in Lexington where they're just 1-16 SU past 17 visits. I wouldn't be too worried about this price range either as UK is already 6-2 ATS this season laying 12.5 or more points at Rupp Arena. Kudos to the job HC Frank Martin is doing in Columbia, but his Gamecocks are in over their head in this one. This is not exactly a favorable spot either after having to play Florida on Tuesday. They grinded out a four-point win there (at home) despite shooting a horrible 29.4% from the floor. They are now shooting just 38.1% in SEC play. Anywhere near that average here and this will quickly turn into "blowout city." 10* Kentucky |
|||||||
01-21-17 | Georgia v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): This is the Aggies' second consecutive game being favored at home. They lost (by two) to Arkansas on Tuesday. That marked their second consecutive loss as they've started 1-5 in SEC play. I do not see them dropping B2B games here in College Station, so early this afternoon I'll be laying the points as they welcome in a Georgia team that's probably a bit overconfident coming off a 10-point win over Vanderbilt. That game took place in Athens, however. While the 'Dawgs might be 3-0 ATS on the SEC road thus far, I don't see them keeping that up. Last year, they were thrashed by A&M, losing by 34 at home. While I'm sure the players remember, the revenge angle is superseeded here by likelihood of an Aggies' bounce-back on their home court. In fact, Texas A&M is just 1-7 ATS its last eight games. They've been favored in the L2 games, dropping both outright. Last Saturday saw them go down at Mississippi State, 67-59 as 2.5-pt chalk. They dominated the board in that game (38-23 rebounding edge), but lost due to 22 turnovers and horrific (1 of 14) shooting from three-point range. They actually jumped out to a 10-0 lead to start the game. It was another blown lead Tuesday as they blew a 12-pt second half lead vs. Arkansas. Again, the team failed to shoot the ball well from three-point range (6 of 20). But, overall, the team has shot the ball this year (47.1%) and while depth has been a concern for HC Billy Kennedy (lost four starters from LY's Sweet 16 team), it's not as if they've been playing all that poorly. A&M can defend as here at home, they're giving up an average of just 62 PPG. It is Georgia that really doesn't shoot well from three-point range, at least on the road where they're just 27.7% for the season. I'll point out that A&M has already faced both unbeaten SEC schools (Kentucky, South Carolina) and was actually FAVORED against a top 20 Arizona team on a neutral floor. The market has simply moved too far against them for this one as simply can't see them failing to cover for a third straight time as a short favorite. They are still 38-8 SU L46 home games. 8* Texas A&M |
|||||||
01-20-17 | Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee -1.5 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET): Have we really reached the point of the College Basketball season where we can start talking about revenge? How time flies! In a result you likely missed (unless you're a HUGE fan of Horizon League basketball), Cleveland State beat WI-Milwaukee at home on New Year's Eve, 62-53 as five-point faves. The Vikings shot 53.5% from the floor in that game, 7 of 17 from three-point range and made 9 of 11 free throws. That's a highly irregular efficient day on the offensive end for this team. Asking CSU to win on the road seems a bit much given their 1-9 SU record in "true" road affairs. They are also just 3-10 ATS as underdogs. Having to only lay the shortest of numbers, WI-Milwaukee will get its revenge tonight. Admittedly, little has gone right for WI-Milwaukee this season. They have just one win in Horizon League play thus far (66-58 over N Kentucky) and that's their ONLY win in the L10 games period. After blowing an 11-pt lead in the second half vs. Wright State last Saturday, the Panthers fell on the road to IL-Chicago on Tuesday, 71-57 as four-point dogs. That was actually their largest margin of defeat so far in conference play. Each of the L2 years have seen they cover easily here at home against Cleveland State. Last year was a 34-point win while 2015 brought an outright upset as four-point dogs. The Panthers have been far more competitive at home, outscoring opponents and holding them to just 65 PPG. After beating WI-Milwaukee, Cleveland State promptly lost its last four games. Twice they were held to 54 points or less. But then on Monday they pulled a somewhat shocking upset, winning at Oakland 76-65 as 13.5-pt dogs. That was their first and only "true" road win thus far. They received a career-high 32 points from Rob Edwards, but expecting a repeat performance seems a little "fool-hardy." The Vikings had a strong showing from three-point range in the upset, but are actually dead last among Horizon League teams in 3-pt%. Little has gone right for Milwaukee thus far, but this is a game that they should - and WILL - win. 10* WI-Milwaukee |
|||||||
01-20-17 | Raptors v. Hornets | Top | 78-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The Hornets had lost five in a row prior to beating Portland 107-85 on Wednesday as 5.5-pt favorites. Pertinent to our discussion here is the fact that all five Hornets losses occurred out on the road, two of them at San Antonio and Houston. Tonight, they'll draw another top five team, but this time at home. Toronto suffered what has to be considered somewhat of a shocking loss their last time out, falling 94-89 at Philadelphia. It was their lowest scoring output since their own loss at San Antonio back on Jan 3rd. While the Raptors are 5-1 ATS this year off a SU loss as a favorite, I don't see Charlotte losing again after (finally) creating some positive momentum (there's that word again) in their last game. The Raptors could very well be a bit short-handed here. DeMarre Carroll (neck), Lucas Noguiera (concussion) and Patrick Patterson (knee) are all listed as questionable. That puts a lot of pressure on the starting guard duo of DeMar DeRozam and Kyle Lowry. Toronto shot only 40% against Philadelphia and was outrebounded. Defensively, this team is giving up 105.7 PPG on the road this year. Charlotte's own defense got back on track against the Blazers. It was the first time holding an opponent below 100 pts in 2017. They'll be tested by the #2 offense in efficiency, but overall the Hornets remain eighth in defensive efficiency. They hosted Toronto once this year (only meeting so far) and lost by two thanks to the Raptors making 21 of 22 free throw attempts. The Hornets shot only 40% from the floor in that game. Charlotte is definitely better than its record from where I sit where I'm not sure you can say the same about Toronto, who couldn't have asked for its first half to go any better. Must win for the home team? I look for them to deliver. 10* Charlotte |
|||||||
01-20-17 | Detroit v. Wright State -7 | Top | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* Wright State (7:00 ET): What am I missing here? Wright State has already beaten Detroit once this year, on the road, and did it as 6.5-pt road favorites. The final score was 85-72. Therefore, I'm trying to figure out this line for Friday's rematch as the Raiders are essentially being asked to lay the same number on their home floor. I get that Detroit comes in off B2B wins, one of them an impressive upset at Oakland. But this line appears to be way off from where I sit as prior to those B2B wins, Detroit was just 2-14 SU for the season w/ one of those wins coming in the season opener against a non-DI school. Lay the points here. Wright State had dropped B2B games before playing WI-Milwaukee last Saturday. They beat the Panthers 70-67. While they definitely had to rally late to do so (never led in the first half), it's always impressive to win on the conference road, especially when playing there for the second time in three nights. It's a much better situation here for Wright State as they've been off since Saturday while Detroit had to play Monday. This will be the Raiders' first home game since suffering an outright loss to Youngstown State on 1.7. They're still 7-2 SU at the Nutter Center, however, and outscoring visitors by 13.3 points per game. Detroit is just 1-9 SU on the road, allowing 86.2 points per game. It's no surprise (to me) that Wright State achieved its highest scoring game in Horizon League play thus far at the Titans' expense. Detroit had lost five in a row before picking up its lone road win of the last Friday, a real shocker over Oakland as they were 18.5-pt dogs in that one. They followed that up by winning Monday, 87-71 at home over Youngstown State. Again though, this is a team w/ only four wins all year. They allowed Wright State to shoot 55% from the floor in the first meeting, including 12 of 21 from three-point range. The Raiders are shooting better than 40% from behind the arc here at home. Meanwhile, I would not expect Detroit to have a good night from three-point range as they're only 30% for the year and WSU holds visiting teams to 29%. 8* Wright State |
|||||||
01-19-17 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech -5 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Right now, everyone in Conference USA is chasing first place Middle Tennessee, who is probably one of the top so-called "mid majors" in the entire country. One of the three teams only one game back is Louisiana Tech and I believe the Bulldogs have the best shot out of the three to catch the Blue Raiders. They won't be playing MTSU until the end of the month (in Murfreesboro), but between then and now they have some favorable draws, including this one at home vs. Rice. While sharing the same overall record as La Tech (12-6 SU), Rice is only 2-3 SU in conference play (La Tech is 4-1). The matching overall records is a bit misleading when you consider that twice in the last month La Tech has lost a one-point game. Lay the points here. One of those one-point losses for La Tech came the last time they played here in Ruston as they fell 69-68 to UTSA as 16.5-pt favorites. Since then, they've rattled off consecutive victories on the road over Charlotte and Old Dominion. The latter came Saturday as short one-point underdogs. The Bulldogs shot a blistering 56.8% from the floor and while that will be difficult to match here, Rice is not good defensively as they allow 76.6 PPG on the road, including better than 40% three-point shooting! Despite the shocking loss to UTSA two Saturdays ago, La Tech is still 9-2 SU in Ruston and outscoring opponents here by an average of 20.6 points per game. They average over 80 PPG while giving up just 58.9. Perhaps the three-point line will be the difference here as at home, La Tech is allowing its opponents to shoot only 29.4% from behind the arc. Rice has already played Middle Tennessee, at home, and lost 80-77. That was a pretty admirable showing back on 1.5, but now for the first time in 17 days the Owls have to hit the road. They avoided what would have been an 0-3 home stand w/ a 101-79 thrashing of North Texas on Saturday. To be clear, North Texas is very bad. I mentioned earlier that La Tech shot 56.8% from the floor in their last game. Well, they were at 61.2% the game before that. So Rice's porous defense is in trouble here. La Tech is actually one of only 10 teams in the country currently ranked in the top 50 in FG% offense and defense. What made Saturday's shooting so impressive is that ODU came in ranked fourth nationally in points allowed! 10* Louisiana Tech |
|||||||
01-19-17 | Maryland v. Iowa -2 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
8* Iowa (7:00 ET): For a third consecutive season, Maryland has started the season at 15-2 (SU) or better. This year's squad is now 16-2 SU after going to Illinois on Saturday and "upsetting" the slightly favored Illini (line was Maryland +3.5), 62-56. It was the Terps' third straight outright win as an underdog here in Big 10 play. That runs their record to an impressive 6-0 ATS as a dog this season! But, as we'll see, this has been quite the fortunate team so far in 2016-17. Meanwhile, we cannot say the same for Iowa, who is off an awful 35-point road loss to Northwestern on Saturday. What made that defeat particularly frustrating is the Hawkeyes were coming off an impressive upset of Purdue earlier in the week. I'll call for a bounce back here. Though 16-2 straight up, Maryland has had plenty of close calls go their way. Eight wins have come by six points or less, including the last two. They also won at Michigan 77-70 on January 7th as eight-point underdogs. They followed that up w/ a home win over Indiana, 75-72, as 1.5-pt dogs. Turnover margin and free throw attempts, both roughly a 2:1 margin in favor of the Terrapins, were the keys there. Saturday in Illinois saw them come from behind to win. They were able to dominate the paint and the fact the Illini went scoreless for seven minutes in the second half was key as well. As good as Maryland likely feels about itself right now, this is their third time playing on the road in the L4 games. They continue to be w/o two players in the rotation - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky. Fran McCaffery is infamously one of the more ornery coaches in the country, so I'm assuming he blew his gasket following his team's loss in Evanston Saturday. Nothing went right for the Hawkeyes as they shot just 35.3% from the floor while allowing Northwestern to shoot 59.7%. There's virtually no way that they'll face such a lopsided shooting discrepancy again here. Remember, Iowa beat Purdue on this floor last week. I don't care what the standings say; Purdue is a better team than Maryland. The Hawkeyes shot 56.7% from the floor in that game. They average 88.7 PPG at home for the year. Peter Jok, who leads the Big 10 in scoring, is off a season-low four points in the last game. He'll lead the rebound tonight. 8* Iowa |
|||||||
01-18-17 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts -1.5 | Top | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
8* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Last Thursday, Oral Roberts won for the 1st time in Summit League play, downing South Dakota State 94-88 as five-point home favorites. They followed that up by losing on Saturday, here at home, to IUPUI. The final score Saturday was 91-85 w/ ORU being a slight (3.5-point) favorite and it was the first time in 11 matchups the Golden Eagles lost to IUPUI. At first blush, it might seem curious to find a team w/ a 5-14 SU record favored yet again, but take note that this is actually the fourth consecutive game that Oral Roberts has been laying points. While just 1-2 ATS previously, the oddsmakers are really saying something about South Dakota w/ this line. What they're saying is the Coyotes aren't very good. Lay the short number. Now South Dakota has been finding plenty of success here in Summit League play. In fact, they're 6-0 against the spread in league games thus far. But they've gotten to play the L3 games all at home. Saturday saw them overcome 37.3% shooting to defeat Ft. Wayne 66-63 as 2.5-point dogs. That score is VERY low-scoring by Summit League standards and the Coyotes are highly unlikely to prevail again tonight were they to shoot the ball so poorly. Oral Roberts comes in averaging 82.3 PPG at home and is off B2B games where they shot 50%. Saturday against Ft. Wayne, South Dakota got a career-best 30 points from Matt Mooney and enjoyed a 20-8 edge in FT's made. Those numbers likely won't repeat themselves here. The Coyotes also actually had to rally back from an eight-point halftime deficit in that game. Oral Roberts will have to shore things up defensively as three of their previous four opponents have shot 52% or better from the floor. Fortunately, South Dakota is one of the weaker teams offensively in the Summit League. Also, this being a home game for Oral Roberts is huge. While they're an unsightly 0-9 SU on the road, they're 5-2 at home. South Dakota is just 3-5 SU on the road (9-1 at home). It should be noted that Oral Roberts' won loss record is a bit misleading as according to RPI, it's been one of the 10 toughest in the country. This is also a triple revenge spot as South Dakota managed to take both meetings last year and the second of the 2014-15 season. 8* Oral Roberts |
|||||||
01-18-17 | Raptors -5 v. 76ers | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:05 ET): So often, we find NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back getting undervalued by the oddsmakers and public alike. That certainly appears to be the case tonight w/ unrested Toronto traveling to Philadelphia. Last night, the Raptors prevailed in Brooklyn, 119-109, which depending on when you bet the game could have either been an ATS win or loss. The 76ers have moved past the Nets in my own personal rankings, but they're not that much better and thus I feel they are getting way too much "credit" in this spot. It could be the fact that they're 7-1 ATS L8 games or simply that Toronto played last night. But, whatever the reason, I'll lay the points. Toronto has won and covered four straight itself, all against Atlantic Division foes. They've beaten Brooklyn twice, Boston and the Knicks. That leaves only Philly to complete the sweep. Certainly, the Raptors have had no problems beating up on division foes all year as they're 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS) vs. the rest of the Atlantic w/ an average margin of victory of +13.1 points per game. Going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, the Raptors are a pretty amazing 34-7 SU vs. division foes. Philadelphia is the one in particular they've dominated, going a perfect 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. They've averaged 122.5 PPG in a pair of wins over them earlier this season. Given that Toronto is third in the league in net efficiency rating (1st offensively), it is really shocking that this line isn't higher. The Raptors have been favored by at least five in each of their previous four games and again, covered the spread every time. The 76ers are not only 7-1 ATS their last eight games, but they've also won straight up SIX times during this stretch. It's clearly the best basketball we've seen from this franchise in a long time. Monday afternoon, they surprised Milwaukee w/ a 113-104 upset as 8.5-pt dogs. But, make no mistake about it, they are still one of the worst teams in the league. Especially on the offensive end where they are the ONLY team in the league currently averaging less than a point per possession. So w/ Toronto being #1 in offensive efficiency, this looks like a bad matchup. Another bad matchup here (from the 76ers' perspective) lies at the points guard position. The Raptors gave Kyle Lowry the night off yday, so he'll be rested here. Meanwhile, Philly is still w/o TJ McConnell. 10* Toronto |
|||||||
01-18-17 | South Dakota State +6.5 v. IUPU-Indianapolis | Top | 83-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): From a bettors' perspective, there are obviously two desirable outcomes when taking an underdog. One is they can simply cover the spread. The other is winning straight up. But don't tell any of that the few brave enough to call themselves "South Dakota State backers" this season. The Jackrabbits are an unfathomable 0-10 against the spread when getting points. Overall, they're 3-14 at the betting window, which is quite miserable, but that also means the record as a favorite is actually 3-4. Tonight, they find themselves in the "dreaded" underdog role again, but I'll step in and take them w/ what I feel is an inflated number. The opponent here is IUPUI, who didn't need the points (+3.5) in pulling off a minor upset at Oral Roberts on Saturday. One of the big reasons I like South Dakota State in this spot is that they've been off since Thursday. That gives them two extra days to prepare here. Prior to beating Oral Roberts, IUPUI had dropped three straight Summit League contests, including an outright loss here at home exactly one week ago to Nebraska-Omaha. Saturday was a big win for the Jaguars as it snapped a 10-game losing streak to Oral Roberts. I cannot see them shooting the ball as well tonight as they did on Saturday when they made 54% of their total field goal attempts. Neither of these teams are good defensively, so that's another reason why the points look so attractive. IUPUI allows 77.3 points per game while South Dakota State allows 77.9. This will be the most points that SDSU has gotten in any conference game thus far. I think it's important to note that their last three losses have all been by eight points or less. Having failed to cover six straight games, there's now some value on the Jackrabbits. Over the last two seasons, they were favored to beat IUPUI in all four meetings (went 3-1 SU/ATS), so being the underdog is new territory here. The added time off should pay dividends. Over the L3 seasons, they are 7-3 SU when playing w/ five or six days rest. IUPUI has allowed three of its last four opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, so expect SDSU to find success offensively tonight. 10* South Dakota State |
|||||||
01-17-17 | Nuggets v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): I figured that it would be pretty rare to find the Lakers favored. But, in fact, this will be the 11th time its happened this season. While that may not seem like a lot (it's only 25% of their total games played), the fact that this is one of the worst teams in the league suggests they've somehow been overvalued. But I don't believe that to be the case here tonight as they welcome in a Nuggets team that quite frankly isn't very good either. Denver is feeling a "mile high" here after B2B wins over Indiana and Orlando where they tallied 265 total pts. The Lakers defense may give me pause, but catching the Nuggets in the second game of a back to back is advantageous. Lay the points. The Lakers come into this game as losers of four straight. Three of those losses have been by double digits. But they were at least close Saturday vs. Detroit, losing by just five. I was actually on the Pistons there and they covered the short number. While the defense has never been great for this team all season, it was the lack of offense that hurt them against Detroit. For the fourth straight time, they failed to score 100 pts. But that should change here against a foe that is alongside them among the worst defensive teams in the league. Denver actually gives up MORE points per game than the Lakers at 111.2. Only Brooklyn and Phoenix are allowing more PPG currently. The Nuggets have been lights out offensively these L2 games. They shot almost 58% overall against the Pacers and Magic and while that sounds troubling for a young Lakers team that often struggles to defend, the fact is I do not believe for a second that Denver can sustain its recent offensive production. Nor do I believe they will be able to sustain a current six-game win streak here at Staples Center (when facing the Lakers). In addition to playing w/o rest, making the Nuggets' task tougher tonight will be the absence of starting SG Gary Harris, who sprained his ankle in last night's win. Do I often stump for teams being undervalued in the second game of a back to back? Yes, but Denver is just 1-6 SU when playing w/o rest this season. 10* LA Lakers |
|||||||
01-17-17 | Iona -3.5 v. Manhattan | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are looking to rebound from yet another surprising MAAC loss here. Saturday saw them go down as seven-point road favorites, in overtime, to lowly Quinnipiac. They're on the road again Tuesday, but laying a shorter number against a Manhattan team that's off a close win over Rider here at home. The Jaspers were able to win Friday despite the absence of one key reserve and preseason MAAC second-teamer Rich Williams, who has yet to play at all this season. These conference rivals are obviously no strangers to one another having met five times over the previous two seasons. While Manhattan was able to pull an upset back in the 2015 MAAC Tourney, Iona has won all four regular season matchups. I'll lay the short number here. The big reason Manhattan was able to win on Friday was that they got a career-best 35 points from Zane Waterman. While Waterman is the Jaspers' leading scorer, that kind of production probably cannot be counted upon for a second straight game. While nether team shot the ball well Friday, Manhattan was able to beat Rider due in large part to a +11 edge in FT's made. Also, it was their second straight game having to rally from a halftime deficit at home. Last Tuesday they were behind Niagara at the break before coming out and shooting a blistering 58.2% as a team in the 2H. Defense remains an issue for the Jaspers as they are giving up 78.6 points per game. They were also outrebounded by Rider on Friday. Iona certainly is no stranger to playing on the road. In fact, they've played only FIVE home games thus far. Could fatigue be setting in? Possibly, but I don't think the spot tonight will be too much to overcome for the Gaels. They blew a late second half lead against Quinnipiac, who by the way also beat Manhattan already. It also didn't help that Iona shot only 7 of 23 from three-point range. Things really fell apart in OT, but considering the team still averages over 78 PPG for the season, scoring points should NOT be an issue tonight. With only two double digit scorers on its roster, Manhattan should have a tough time keeping up here. 8* Iona |
|||||||
01-17-17 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -8.5 | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): Both MAC West rivals will be looking to rebound from back to back losses here, but the situations may not be as similar as you think. Whereas Toledo is off two straight losses on the road, BG just dropped a pair at home and by larger margins. Now the Falcons are the road team and it's tough to like their chances after watching them score just 52 and 53 points in those consecutive defeats. Toledo was actually a road favorite in both of its losses last week, at Western and Central Michigan, so it looks like the market may be short-changing them a bit for this home date. They swept Bowling Green last year. Lay the points. Last Tuesday, Bowling Green was absolutely destroyed by Eastern Michigan, 81-53. Though for the 1st half that game was relatively close, the numbers still "tell the story" and that's they allowed EMU to shoot better than 58 percent from the floor (!) while making only 33% of their own attempts. It wasn't quite as ugly Saturday vs. Northern Illinois, but the Falcons still lost a pick 'em game at home by 17 pts. It's really hard to like their chances going out on the road where they're 1-6 SU this season. That one win did come in MAC play, but at Ball State, a significantly weaker opponent than what they'll face here. They've lost five straight times to their I-75 rival and last won here in Toledo back in 2011. Defense was a major issue for Toledo last week, but the Rockets should simply have too much firepower tonight. Incredibly, Western Michigan shot 70% against the Rockets last Tuesday. No opponent will shoot that high of a percentage against them the rest of the year. Over the weekend, not once did they lead at Central Michigan, giving up 96 pts in the process. Falling behind 11-0 out of the gate really doomed them there. But this is a team that's still 7-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visiting teams by an impressive margin of 15.6 points per game. Given that BGSU just scored 52 and 53 points in its two games LW, I don't think defense will be an issue for Toledo tonight. 8* Toledo |
|||||||
01-16-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 91-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Both of LY's NBA Finalists snapped six-game ATS losing streaks their last time out. Cleveland won 120-108 at Sacramento while Golden State blew out Detroit 127-107 here at home. But, without a doubt, the streak that the Dubs are more concerned with here is their four straight losses to the Cavaliers. Three of those infamously took place in LY's Finals. The most recent was on X-Mas Day as they blew a double digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost by one, again done in by Kyrie Irving. But this go-around, the situation greatly favors them. Not only have they had one extra day to prepare compared to Cleveland, but the Cavs are also wrapping up a six-game road trip here. Lay the points. The Warriors might be 1-6 ATS their L7 games, but being a double-digit fave in every time has played a large role in that. The only loss that they've suffered since Christmas was a game vs. Memphis where they blew a 19-pt fourth quarter lead. Certainly, you have to imagine this a matchup where they will not be lacking for motivation. Last year on MLK Day, they destroyed the Cavaliers (in Cleveland) 132-98. Since taking that 3-1 lead in LY's Finals, they are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. the Cavs. But with the addition of Kevin Durant this year, the Dubs may even be stronger than they were last season. A big difference moving forward is that they will not be burdened w/ the silly chase of a relatively meaningless regular season wins record. Not only are the Warriors #2 in offensive efficiency currently, they are #2 defensively as well! Cleveland has major depth issues going on right now (no backup point guard, no JR Smith) and has really slipped defensively this year. While they actually give up slightly less points per game, in terms of points per possession, the Cavs are clearly inferior. Whereas the Warriors rank #2 in defensive efficiency, the Cavs are only tied for 12th. LeBron and company are also just 11-7 SU/7-11 ATS on the road this year. Tonight marks the most rest that Golden State has had coming into any game all season! When these teams met on X-Mas, the Warriors were playing their third road game in four nights out East. Now, the proverbial shoe is on the other foot. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
01-16-17 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana-Monroe +4.5 | Top | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* UL Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a very tough spot for favored Georgia Southern. They are coming off a huge win at UL Lafayette, 81-76 as nine-point underdogs. The win leaves the Eagles as the Sun Belt's lone unbeaten in conference play (4-0). Tonight, they hit the road again (second road game in three days!) to play the only SBC team w/o a win in league play. That would be UL Monroe. But please do not make the mistake of discounting the Warhawks chances in this one (I'm certainly not!). While 0-4 SU in league play thus far, three of those losses have been quite close, including one they just suffered here at home in overtime to Georgia State on Saturday. Incredibly, that was their third OT loss already this season (two in conf play!). I think it's time for this team to break through w/ an upset. Take the points. The Warhawks had not lost at home before Saturday. Had their shooting not gone ice cold in overtime, perhaps they would still be unbeaten. I have to admit that I am a little concerned about the fact the team is shooting just 37.9% from the floor in conference play. But the Georgia State game was the first one that took place at home. Here at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, the Warhawks are shooting better than 50% for the year including 45% from three-point range. So, I'll call for a big bounce back offensively here. Last season, they beat Ga Southern on this floor, 83-76, shooting 54.1%. Their home ATS record is 17-9 the L3 seasons. Beating the team that's perceived as the Sun Belt's best (UL Lafayette) was huge for Georgia Southern. It was their fifth win in a row and seventh in the last eight games overall. The only loss during the stretch came by just two points at Hampton. However, the last three wins all have been by five points or less and they've given up an average of 79 points per game. That's a difficult, if not impossible, way to sustain success. They had to rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat LA Lafayette. It was a 51-point effort in the second half, something that's hard to come by. Two keys to the Eagles pulling that upset were a) LA Lafayette going only 3 of 18 from three-point range and b) GSU making 16 more free throws. 8* UL Monroe |
|||||||
01-16-17 | Creighton v. Xavier -3.5 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
8* Xavier (2:00 ET): This is obviously a very big game in the Big East w/ the two of the top teams in the conference colliding. As far as "who's hotter" coming into this afternoon's clash, there is no debate. Creighton is 17-1 SU this year (only loss to Villanova) and went the "tune up" route on Saturday, hosting non-DI Truman State, whom they annihilated 101-69. Meanwhile, Xavier had to go to Butler and lost a close one, 83-78 as four-point dogs. That followed another road loss, 79-54 to Villanova. That's a tough stretch for any team, so the fact the Musketeers went 0-2 is of no real concern to me. They're 9-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 18.9 points per game so far. Lay the points. Creighton is certainly no slouch. The Blue Jays will likely find themsleves in the top 7 when the new polls come out later today. If you're a regular of mine, then you're already aware of my lack of regard for the pollsters. I do not think Creighton is a top seven team in the country. They are top 20 for sure, but not top 10. When searching for a "best win" this year, Wisconsin early in the year and Butler last week both come to mind. But those came in Omaha. Because they're 12-4 ATS overall, I feel they're a little overvalued right now. Remember that they are still w/o senior center Zach Hanson. The team is shooting remarkably well so far (53.5 FG%), but Xavier's defense will present the toughest matchup since Villanova. The Musketeers could very well drop out of the Top 25 due to the B2B losses, but IMO they are still Top 25 worthy. Before the last week, they'd lost only two games and one of them was at Baylor, who (for now) is #1 in the country. The other loss came by two at Colorado. While the final score says they lost by 25 at 'Nova, note that was a close game at halftime. They led Butler at the half (by six) Saturday before another second half defensive meltdown. The fact that the Musketeers allow just 61.2 PPG at home tells me we won't have that same issue this afternoon. Point guard Edward Sumner is listed as probable to play, so don't worry about that. I look for Xavier to snap a four-game ATS (2-2 SU) losing skid to Creighton here. 8* Xavier |
|||||||
01-15-17 | Pistons -2 v. Lakers | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (9:35 ET): Call me crazy, but I feel that Pistons HC Stan Van Gundy could be in some real trouble if his team were to lose tonight. Fortunately for SVG, the opponent here is the lowly Lakers. Detroit, expected to be a bit of a breakout team in the East this year, is instead languishing at six games below .500 and three games back of the eighth place team. Of course, that would be an enviable position as far as the Lakers are concerned. After a surprisingly all right start to the season, they're exactly where we expected them to be and that's at the bottom of the standings. I have only two teams in the entire league rated worse in my own power rankings and those are Philadelphia and Brooklyn. Lay the short number here. Sometime right before X-Mas, it all started going very badly for the Pistons. They've lost 11 of 15 overall. One of those four wins came against Cleveland, the day after X-Mas (Cavs had just beaten Golden State) and they didn't have to face LeBron James. Their only two wins since we flipped the calendar to 2017 both came by exactly one point. So you might feel as if this is not a prime candidate to be laying points with right now, but fortunately the number is short and the opponent is the Lakers. Los Angeles also has just four wins in its L15 games and they've lost three straight, all in blowout fashion. Saturday afternoon, it was 113-97 to the Clippers. They are just 3-6 SU this year when playing in the second game of a back to back. Detroit is wrapping up a five-game West Coast swing here, but at least has the edge in rest. Friday went very poorly for them in Utah (lost 110-77), but that result SHOULD have the players eager to atone. It also helps that they'll be facing the worst defensive team in the league on a per possession basis. Ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, LA is giving up 110.3 points per game for the year. The Pistons defensive numbers have slipped of late, but they are still "miles ahead" of the Lakers. After they shot below 40% from the floor on Friday, I'll call for Detroit to have one of its stronger offensive efforts in some time tonight. They are 30-14 ATS L44 games w/ a total of 210 or higher. 8* Detroit |
|||||||
01-15-17 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | Top | 60-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): What has happened to Northern Iowa this year? Ben Jacobson's proud program is in a massive tailspin right now as they've lost seven in a row, the last five of which have come in Missouri Valley play (the others were to Iowa and North Carolina). Results at the betting window have been even worse as not only have the Panthers failed to cover the spread in all seven of those SU losses, they're also 3-12 ATS for the year! But help comes today in the form of MVC rival Drake, who UNI always seems to beat up on. Drake is 0-8 SU on the road this year and I think we're getting this matchup at a great price due to Drake having pulled a couple of surprising upsets (at home) in the last week. Lay the points. Being favored has not treated Northern Iowa well this year as they're just 1-6 ATS in the role, losing outright five times. The most recent instance came Wednesday at Bradley as they fell 72-61 as two-point chalk. The Panthers shot the ball horrifically (33.9% for the game) while at the same time allowing the Braves to connect on 55.1% of their FG attempts. Such a wide shooting disparity is pretty rare and I'd be surprised if we saw anything like that againt for UNI the rest of the season. Luckily for them, this game is at home where they are allowing only 61.2 points per game for the season. Their own scoring average rises (to 69.7 PPG) here in Cedar Falls. Facing a team that's allowed an average of 83.4 PPG in conference play should remedy some of the offensive woes we've seen recently. As mentioned earlier, Drake has pulled a couple of upsets over the past week. First, they beat Evansville 88-76 as 3.5-pt dogs. Then it was an 87-70 win over Indiana State (were +1) on Wednesday. But I think that most would still conclude that the Bulldogs are still one of the worst teams in the MVC. They have never had much success vs. Northern Iowa, going just 13-27 ATS L40 meetings, and the last two seasons have produced four double digit losses. They really benefited from Indiana State shooting only 32.4% on Wednesday. Even w/o Jeremy Morgan, I expect Northern Iowa to (finally!) get back on track in this one. 10* Northern Iowa |
|||||||
01-15-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (3:05 ET): Atlanta saw its seven-game win streak come to an end Friday as they lost at home to Boston, 103-101 as 3.5-pt favorites. The Celtics were my *10* Game of the Week in that spot. Seven game win streaks are certainly "hard to come by," but if you were w/ me on Friday's play, then you're already aware of the "holes" I was able to poke in the Hawks' recent ended streak. Their four-game road trip was about as easy as it gets w/ visits to Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn. While still fourth in the East, Atlanta's point differential and efficiency rating actually both place sixth. One of the teams ahead of them is this afternoon's opponent, Milwaukee. The better team is getting points in this instance. The Bucks showed me something in not experiencing a letdown against Miami Friday night. After all, it would have only been natural seeing as they were off a win at San Antonio on Tuesday. Led by sure-fire All Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee has really morphed into a good team and they are 8-5 ATS this year when taking on opponents that have a winning record. They jumped on Miami right away Friday night, scoring 42 points in the first quarter. They led by 17 going into the fourth quarter. What's notable from the win is Antetokounmpo didn't lead the team in points, rebounds or assists (a real rarity!). If this team can win when their star isn't at his best (he's been sick recently), that's a bad sign for the rest of the Conference. The Bucks are 0-2 SU/ATS this year vs. the Hawks, but in the last meeting they blew a 20-point halftime lead at home. Both games were decided by three points or less. I'm saying that the third time will be the charm here for Milwaukee as they are better than Atlanta in both per game point differential (+2.2 vs. +0.0) and net efficiency rating (+2.9 vs. +0.4). To me, even w/ Atlanta's home court edge, the line here should be a pick 'em. The fact that we are getting any points at all w/ what I consider to be the better team is an absolute steal. The Bucks are a top eight team in offensive efficiency and should take advantage of a Hawks team giving up 104.9 PPG at home. 10* Milwaukee |
|||||||
01-15-17 | Massachusetts v. Rhode Island -11 | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): The two teams involved here brought me very different results in their respective last games. UMass treated me to a nice outright win (as 7-pt home dogs) hosting Dayton. But Rhode Island fell victim to a very hot-shooting LaSalle team and lost outright (as 12-pt home favorites). That was the Rams's second straight outright loss as they'd previously lost at Dayton (as a one-point favorite). Thus, there should be a real "sense of urgency" w/ the Rhodies this afternoon. Before Thursday, they had not dropped a home game and I'll call for them to bounce back w/ a big double digit win here. Lay the points. UMass has not fared particularly well in "true" road games thus far. They've won only two out of six and those wins were against Holy Cross and Georgia Southern. Prior to upsetting Dayton, the Minutemen were 0-3 in Atlantic 10 play, including losses at George Mason and VCU. They also lost at home to St. Bonaventure. That upset of Dayton was largely made possible by the Flyers shooting a horrid 31.7% from the floor. It certainly helped drawing them off their big win over Rhode Island. Holding a 34-27 halftime lead proved to be the difference. Also, Dayton has not won in Amherst since 2004. So while kudos should be given to the Minutemen for what they were able to pull off Wednesday (I did have them remember!), the fact is this really isn't that great of a team and they're probably in store for a letdown. Off their previous upset win (at Ga Southern), they would go on to lose the home game to St. Bonaventure their next time out. This is a really important game for Rhode Island, who cannot afford to lose a third straight conference game. Again, they were 8-0 SU at home before losing to LaSalle on Thursday. The Explorers couldn't miss as they shot a ridiculous 57.8% for the game compared to only 39.4% for the Rams. The 12-point loss was URI's largest of the season. I believe this team is better than it's 10-6 SU overall record as four of the losses have been by five points or less and another was to Duke. They did beat a very good Cincinnati team here at home earlier in the season. I can't believe that at home Rhode Island was -22 in FT attempts compared to LaSalle. UMass, who is below 30% for the year from three-point range, won't shoot the ball nearly as well. Three-point shooting is typically a difference maker for the Rams at home as they make 37.3% while allowing opponents to shoot 27.1%. They are +14.8 PPG at the Ryan Center. 8* Rhode Island |
|||||||
01-14-17 | Santa Clara v. Pepperdine +4 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET): November and December were a "tale of two months" for Pepperdine. They didn't leave campus once in November and went a more than respectable 4-3 SU. December was a different story. After opening w/ a home date against Belmont (top team in the OVC), the Waves rode out 2016 with six consecutive road games. They lost all of them, only covering as 10-point dogs at Montana. They did beat Loyola Marymount in the first game of '17, but have since lost to San Diego and Pacific. And the news hasn't gotten any better in the last 24 hours as news broke they could continue to be short-handed w/ Knox Hellums and Ryan Keenan possibly out (undisclosed). But this will be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, traditionally a terrible spot. Take the points. Pepperdine still has three double digits scorers, most notably LaMond Murray Jr, who is averaging 19.4 points per game. You can trace the team's downfall to the loss of PG Amadi Udenyi as they've won only once w/o him. But grad transfer Chris Reyes has managed to step up (15.2 PPG) and so has Jeremy Major, a career 1,000+ point scorer. The team's 38.1% shooting from three-point range currently stands as the best for an Waves team since '03. Unfortunately, opponents have not been missing many attempts from behind the arc, currently at 42%, one of the highest percentages allowed in the entire country. You have to figure that number will start to come down, if not only because it has to. While Pepperdine lost a close one at Pacific on Thursday, Santa Clara won by an even slimmer margin at San Diego. It was 59-57 for the Broncos, who just missed out on covering as 2.5-pt faves. A made layup w/ just over one minute remaining ended up as the GW basket. Over the final eight minutes, the margin was never greater than three for either side. This just won't be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, it's also their third straight overall. They shot poorly last Saturday at Loyola Marymount (the only WCC team Pepperdine has beaten!) as in 36.8% overall and lost. Scoring only 59 points Thursday does not lead me to conclude that this is a team that should be laying points on the conference road. 10* Pepperdine |
|||||||
01-14-17 | Richmond v. St. Joe's -1.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
10* St. Joe's (12:30 ET): St. Joe's was the top ATS team in the country last year, at least among those that regularly play lined games. They finished 24-11 ATS (28-8 SU). Somewhat predictably, they've regressed in 2016-17, starting just 5-9 vs. the number after losing here at home to George Mason (75-67 as four-point chalk) back on Tuesday. Richmond is the next team to invade Hagan Arena and I do not anticipate this venture being a successful one for the Spiders. Sure, they come in riding a four-game win streak, including upsets of Dayton and George Washington on the road. But home games w/ Fordham and St. Bonaventure were certainly advantageous. The road team won both meetings last season, so it's naturally time for the host to return the favor. St. Joe's has suffered a major blow w/ the loss of leading scorer Shavar Newkirk (20.5 PPG) for the rest of the season. But three players scored 16+ in the surprise loss to George Mason on Tuesday. I believe Newkirk's lost production can be made up for, specifically by James Demery and Lamarr Kimble. Also, here at home, the Hawks are typically potent offensively. So far, they are averaging 76.2 PPG here in Philly. While it's been a so-so start in the A-10 (just 2-2 SU), they did beat GW here. In the loss to George Mason, they led at halftime and into the second half. It was rare in that they allowed the opponent to shoot 50% while only shooting 42.2% themselves, including an awful 5 of 21 from theee-point range. It also didn't help that they were outscored by eight, the difference in the game, from the FT line. I guarantee we won't be seeing a repeat of those numbers here this afternoon. Richmond is unbeaten in A-10 play and certainly playing well. They've been between 77 and 82 points in each of their four league wins, but still only outscored those teams by 8.5 PPG, even after the 78-61 win over St. Bonaventure earlier in the week. This is the first EVER - as in program history - that they have started 4-0 SU in A-10 play. However, they actually trailed the Bonnies at halftime before exploding for 51 pts in the final 20 minutes. 10* St. Joe's |