Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-21 | LSU +7 v. Alabama | Top | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
9* LSU (1:00 ET): I thought for sure that we “had” Alabama yesterday as Tennessee, a 4.5-point underdog, was up 48-33 early in the second half. But not only could the Vols not hold the lead, they failed to cover, losing 73-68. Thus the Crimson Tide, the regular season champs of the SEC, can now win their first conference tournament since 1991. LSU’s drought is even longer (1980) and they are the opposition after upsetting #2 seed Arkansas (who I have a lot of respect for) 78-71 on Saturday. The Tigers were 3.5-pt dogs yday, which is what my power ratings say the line should be here. Grab the points. LSU is #6 in the country in offensive efficiency and comes in averaging 82.4 PPG. So it typically takes a lot of points to defeat them. This is a double revenge game for the Tigers as they were blown out in both regular season matchups by Alabama. One of those was an awful 105-75 loss in Tuscaloosa while the other (in Baton Rouge) saw them lose by 18. So I guess I’m not surprised that this number has been bet up this morning. But I don’t think those regular season encounters are really indicative of the discrepancy between these two squads. While Alabama is certainly deserving of their Top 10 ranking and a team you should pay careful attention to when filling out your bracket this week, LSU is in my Top 25 as well. I see the underdog keeping this one closer than expected on Sunday. It’s the third game in three days for both teams and an outright upset seems more likely than a blowout. Alabama easily could have lost yesterday. They are without freshman guard Joshua Primo. While LSU is a bit suspect at the defensive end, they do defend the three-point line well as you saw yday vs. Arkansas. I think they’ll shoot better from distance here than they did in either regular season matchup with Bama. 9* LSU |
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03-14-21 | Loyola Maryland v. Colgate -9.5 | Top | 72-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
10* Colgate (12:00 ET): A rare visit to the Patriot League for myself. This tournament has been spread out over the course of the last week with all the games played at campus sites, hosted by the higher seed. With top-seed Navy bounced in the quarterfinals (by Loyola MD), Colgate became the favorite and will host the Tournament Final. The Raiders have been big favorites in both of their tourney games so far. After not covering against Boston U in the quarters (won by 8 as 12-pt chalk), they annihilated Bucknell 105-75 (were -11) in the semis. Loyola MD, the 9-seed, caught a break in that they were supposed to play in the first round of the tournament but Holy Cross forfeited due to COVID. Then came B2B upsets, first over top seed Navy, then over 4-seed Army. The Greyhounds are only 6-10 SU on the year, including the two upsets in this tournament. They did not face Colgate in the regular season. But they are 0-7 SU their L7 visits here. I’d be absolutely stunned if Loyola pulled a third consecutive upset here. The Greyhounds’ good fortune continued beyond the Holy Cross forfeit as Navy was without two starters, so that helps explain that upset. The only loss for Colgate (13-1 SU) this season was by two points to Army. They are second in the country in scoring (86.4 PPG), trailing only Gonzaga, and have outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 PPG. A win here would give the program its first NCAA Tournament appearance in a quarter century (the Adonal Foyle days!). They were probably the best team in the Patriot League this season and I expect them to dominate this game. 10* Colgate |
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03-13-21 | North Texas +1 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 61-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* North Texas (9:00 ET): This is the C-USA Tournament Final. The winner goes to the NCAA Tournament, the loser will not. North Texas and Western Kentucky did not meet in the regular season. The last time they played was just over a year ago when North Texas won in overtime 78-72. Now they’ll try and do something they have not done since 2015 and that’s cover the spread against the Hilltoppers. The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS L8 head to head matchups, but are favored here and that’s telling. North Texas has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2010. They’ve won three games in three days this weekend, holding their opponents to an average of 53.5 PPG. That’s obviously very impressive, but probably should be expected seeing as the team is 10th in the country in scoring defense at 61.4 PPG. After crushing Middle Tennessee by 20 in their first tourney game, it’s been B2B six-point wins over Old Dominion and La Tech. The Mean Green are 8-1 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less and they gave up just 48 on Friday. WKU is also strong at the defensive end. Over its last six games, they’ve allowed just 62 PPG on 39% shooting. Over the last two months, only one team has scored more than 71 points against them and that was Top 10 Houston. But those defensive numbers aren’t as good as what North Texas has produced. The Hilltoppers trailed UAB at the half yday despite shooting 50% from 3-point range. The player to watch here is UNT’s Javion Hamlet, who has averaged 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists in this tournament. 10* North Texas |
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03-13-21 | Blazers -4 v. Wolves | Top | 125-121 | Push | 0 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): While I’m a tad bit skeptical of the Blazers maintaining their current 6th place spot in the Western Conference, I do think they match up quite well with the T’wolves. Of course, most teams match up well with the T’wolves. Minnesota is in last place with an 8-29 SU record. They are arguably the worst team in the entire league, though they did start the second half with a shocking 30-point win over New Orleans. But they went into the All-Star Break on a 9-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. After the shocking win Thursday, look for the T’wolves to revert back to their losing ways tonight. They shot a season-high 53.7% against New Orleans, so the Break treated them well. The 135 points were also a season-best. However, this is a team that ranks 27th in offensive efficiency, so I don’t think the shooting we saw Thursday will carry over. The fact that the Pelicans shot 6 of 32 from three-point range while the T’wolves were 19 of 40 was key. New Orleans actually led by 16 early in the game! Portland’s second half to the season started with a 127-121 loss at home to Phoenix. The Suns are a really good team this year, so that result doesn’t bother me. The Blazers had actually beaten the Suns last week to go into the All-Star Break on a three-game win streak. The only previous meeting with Minnesota was a 135-117 win at home that featured a 47-point quarter. Minnesota got a career-high 28 points from a third string PG Thursday and has won B2B games only once all season (started 2-0!). 10* Portland |
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03-13-21 | Iowa +4 v. Illinois | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
8* Iowa (3:30 ET): I’ve got Iowa rated as the better team, so I’m taking the points here. Now there is no denying that Illinois is rolling. A couple months ago when they were underachieving a bit, I said to watch out for the Fighting Illini. They come into Saturday on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak including an impressive 90-68 thrashing of Rutgers last night. But just like the Illini, I feel Iowa is one of the five best teams in the country. It speaks to the strength of the Big 10 that such a matchup would take place in the tournament semifinals. Iowa won 62-57 yesterday, their second close win over Wisconsin in the last week. That they were able to win in such low-scoring fashion really impressed me. The Hawkeyes are typically known for out-scoring their opposition as they rank #2 in the country in offensive efficiency and #4 in points per game (84.2). That they held Wisconsin to just 57 points was a real nice “change of pace.” Uncharacteristically, they shot just 2 of 20 from three-point range. Look for that to turn around in a major way here. Presumed Player of the Year Luke Garza still scored 24 yday. This will be just the fifth time all season that Iowa is an underdog. The last time saw them go to Ohio State and win big. While Illinois has won 12 of 13, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 SU their L9 games (only loss at Michigan). The Illini did take the lone regular season meeting, but by only five points and that was in Champaign-Urbana. Illinois is only 1-4 ATS when coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. Iowa is undervalued here. 8* Iowa |
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03-13-21 | Ohio State +6.5 v. Michigan | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (1:00 ET): Friday marked the second day in a row that Ohio State failed to protect a big lead, yet managed to survive and advance. They were up 18 at the half on Purdue yday, but saw that entire lead slip away over the course of the last 20 minutes of regulation and overtime was needed to decide things. As you know, the Buckeyes were my 10* Game of the Week. I couldn’t watch any longer, so I actually turned the game off. I was quite pleased several minutes later when I checked my phone and saw that they won 87-78, easily covering the 1-point spread. Because their last two games have ended up being close, we’re getting another good value on Ohio State today. I brought up a 5-game ATS losing skid they were on going into yesterday. That’s over now. They also led Minnesota by 14 with 3 ½ minutes to go on Thursday. So the Buckeyes have played pretty well in this tournament. They’ve just struggled to protect leads. That’s less of an issue now that they come in as the underdog, a role they have been in just twice since the start of February. The last time OSU was an underdog was against Michigan, a game they lost 92-87. That’s one of three losses by 5 points or less that they’ve suffered since Feb 21. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year since before X-Mas. Michigan’s game yesterday was just the opposite of Ohio State’s. The Wolverines trailed by 12 early before storming back. I expect this one to be close as my power ratings say the number should be closer to +3. Ohio State has five outright wins as a dog this season and is 4-1 ATS the L5 times catching points. 8* Ohio State |
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03-13-21 | Tennessee +5 v. Alabama | Top | 68-73 | Push | 0 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Both teams won their quarterfinal games in blowout fashion yesterday. Alabama hammered Mississippi State 85-48 as 7.5-point chalk. As impressive a win as that was, Tennessee beating a good Florida team by double digits may have impressed me more. The Volunteers never trailed in the contest and were up by as many as 17 in the second half. Now it’s looking likely that they’ll be without senior John Fulkerson for this game. But that’s caused the number to balloon and the Vols are a really good value here getting points. I have these teams rated pretty evenly. Fulkerson does lead Tennessee in field goal percentage, but they also have three double digit scorers to pick up the slack. Then you’ve got Yves Pons, who nearly had a triple double yesterday with 11 points, eight rebounds and nine blocks. Alabama could also be missing one of its standouts, starting guard Josh Primo, as he left yday’s game with an apparent knee injury. If Primo were to be out, that would certainly “cancel out” the Fulkerson injury. Alabama probably could not have played any better than they did yesterday. They were up huge most of the game, forced MSU to turn it over 18 times and held them to 1 of 19 from three-point range. But Tennessee will be tougher. To me, the Vols are a Top 25 team (even though they are not ranked). They’ve got revenge from a loss in the regular season. The Crimson Tide are just 1-4 ATS following a win by 20+ points and I feel are being overvalued off the big blowout win. Take the points. 8* Tennessee |
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03-12-21 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Indiana’s first half ended with an 0-6 ATS run and they lost outright in five of those six games. The one victory was by only three points against Cleveland and even then they trailed by 19 in that game. The end result of this is the Pacers have fallen from the top eight in the Eastern Conference and are in a precarious position right now, sitting at 16-19 SU overall. They get no breaks to start the second half as they have to head to LA to face LeBron and the Lakers. Now the Lakers’ weren’t exactly playing their best basketball heading into the Break either. Playing without Anthony Davis, they dropped six of eight in what was their worst stretch all year. LeBron sat out the last game, a 123-120 loss to Sacramento, so take that result with a “grain of salt.” The rest came at a good time for this team as LeBron had really been shouldering a huge load. I think we’ll see them come out strong at home Friday night and this is really a short line when you think about it. Indiana is still waiting for Caris LeVert to finally suit up. He may return later in this road trip, but not tonight. LeVert was supposed to fill the void left by trading Victor Oladipo and the Pacers have really struggled since that move was made as they don’t have a reliable third scorer. Defensively, they were torched in their previous five games, allowing the opponents to shoot a collective 53.4% from the field. The Pacers have failed to cover their last eight games as an underdog. 8* LA Lakers |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): With a four-game win streak going into the All-Star Break, the Nuggets were able to climb up into fifth place in the Western Conference. They were able to cover the spread in all four of those victories as well. Two were 30-point blowouts, one of them at Milwaukee, and what’s most impressive of all is that all four wins came on the road. Before heading back to Denver for a five-game homestand, the Nuggets wrap up their road trip tonight in Memphis. The Grizzlies are also on a 4-0 ATS win streak. But, unlike Denver, they did not win every game straight up as there was a one-point loss to Milwaukee. Nor was every game on the road. The one-point loss to the Bucks was here at home as was a 127-112 win over hapless Washington Weds night. So Memphis has a game under its belt since the break, which is not the case with Denver. I don’t really see that as being an advantage for either side heading into tonight. The Grizzlies do not have much of a home court advantage as they are just 8-11 SU on their own floor this season. Looking at their three previous wins, two were against Washington and the other against Houston, who is arguably the coldest team in the league right now. The fact Denver went to Milwaukee and won by 31 is incredibly impressive. Nikola Jokic has been playing out of his mind and the team is now 4th in the league in points per game (115.9). Memphis is 4-10 ATS following a double digit win. 10* Denver |
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03-12-21 | Ohio State -1 v. Purdue | Top | 87-78 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (2:30 ET): It speaks to the overall strength of the Big 10 that this, a matchup of Top 20 teams, would be a quarterfinal matchup in the conference tournament. Ohio State had to win yesterday just to get here. They beat Minnesota 79-75, however they failed to cover the 11-point spot. It was the Buckeyes fifth consecutive ATS loss, a streak which also happens to include four STRAIGHT UP losses. Conversely, Purdue SURGED at the end of the regular season, winning and covering its last five games. I think those respective ATS streaks set us up with a nice value on Ohio State today. It certainly is telling that the lower seed is favored, albeit slightly, against a rested opponent. The Buckeyes’ losing streak featured numerous “close calls” as losses to Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan were all by 5 points or less. While I do have serious questions about the Buckeyes’ defense come NCAA Tournament time, they did a decent enough job at that end in two regular season meetings vs. Purdue (allowed 67 pts both games). Now the Boilermakers won both (regular season matchups), one by two points and the other by seven (back in December). So in addition to being a “buy low” spot on OSU, it’s also a matter of double revenge. I also think this is a good time to “sell high” on Purdue, who came from the middle of the pack to “steal” a double bye from the Buckeyes. Ohio State got off to a 13-0 start in yday’s game and was up 14 with 3 ½ minutes remaining. So the fact they did not cover was disappointing. Purdue’s schedule over the last month was relatively weak by Big 10 standards. 10* Ohio State |
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03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I think it’s fair to say there are three teams better than the rest in this year’s Eastern Conference. Milwaukee, in my view, is still the best. But Brooklyn is probably #2 and certainly has the most star-laden roster. In addition to Durant, Irving and Harden, the Nets now have Blake Griffin among their ranks in what is shaping up to be a “Championship or bust” type of campaign. The second half gets underway with a home game against Boston, who has underachieved and is not in their league. The Celtics are currently 4th in the East but as I indicated above, there is a definite gap between them and the top three. That gap was shrunk somewhat when they won their final four games before the All Star Break. All four wins were pretty close though (by seven points or less) and at home. The team is just 7-12 SU on the road so far and 6-13 against the spread. Boston has lost six straight on the road and they are 0-3 SU/ATS their L3 visits to Brooklyn. On X-Mas, they lost by 28 to the Nets - at home. Now Durant and Griffin aren’t playing tonight, but that’s OK seeing as Harden has been on fire, averaging 25.5 points, 11.4 assists and 8.7 rebounds with the Nets while delivering eight triple doubles.They lead the league in scoring (121.1 PPG) and “oh, by the way” are 10-1 SU/ATS their L11 games. Brooklyn is now actually the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals and while I’m not sure I agree with that, this line is far too short given that marketplace projection. Their last three wins have all been by double digits. 10* Brooklyn |
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03-11-21 | Montana State -2.5 v. Idaho State | Top | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
9* Montana State (4:00 ET): Montana State is a putrid 0-8 ATS its last eight games, but they are still favored to win this quarterfinal matchup in the Big Sky Tournament against Idaho State. I think that’s telling, especially considering the Bobcats are the lower seed. Admittedly, we’re talking about a 5-seed over a 4-seed, but I think this is a great “buy low” spot. Regulars may recall that I took Idaho State last week as a big underdog against Eastern Washington. They shocked even me by winning that game outright. Almost immediately though, they reverted back to prior form, losing the rematch 75-62. So Idaho State has dropped three of four coming into this tournament. Granted, that’s not as bad as Montana State dropping six of eight. But save for the shocker over Eastern Washington that I was on, the Bengals don’t have a lot of impressive wins on their resume. The bottom four teams in the Big Sky are all quite bad and that’s who six of the seven wins in January/February were against. The other was against a non-DI team. In case you’re wondering, no, these teams did not play in the regular season. They were supposed to in early February, but those games were cancelled. The favorite is 11-2 ATS the L13 head to head matchups. Montana State had to play Eastern Washington and Weber State a total of four times down the stretch, which helps explain the swoon. (Those are the two best teams in the league). The Bobcats are coming off a 1-point loss and should be highly motivated to win today. 9* Montana State |
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03-11-21 | Seton Hall -1 v. St. John's | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (3:00 ET): IMMEDIATE REVENGE! Seton Hall lost to St. John’s in the regular season finale 81-71 as a 2.5-point favorite. Full disclosure - I had the Pirates in that game. Things definitely looked good early as the Pirates scored the game’s first 18 points! At halftime, they led 38-28. But things fell apart after that as the Johnnies scored a season-high 53 in the 2H and thus earned the 4-seed for this Big East Tournament. Ultimately, the seeding designation meant nothing as here we are with the teams playing yet again. Seton Hall has lost four straight times as a favorite and is 0-6 ATS its L6 overall. But I’m going to “double down” here on them. The fact they were up 18-0 and lost Saturday is pretty ridiculous. They did beat St. John’s in the first meeting of the season, 77-68 as 6-point chalk. This late season swoon may very well end up costing the Pirates a NCAA Tournament berth. Right now, they are in the “Next Four Out” category according to Joe Lunardi. But there’s still time to change that. As I anticipated, the offense did get back on track a little bit Saturday. It was their second highest scoring game since Valentine’s Day. St. John’s is terrible defensively as they allow almost 80 PPG away from home. There were two times I faded the Red Storm in February and both bets were successful. One was when they faced DePaul as 11.5-point chalk and they lost that game outright. PG Posh Alexander (thumb) may return Thursday, but I still have the Johnnies as the lower-rated side here. Their lack of defense is a huge liability and has cost them games in the past. Seton Hall is much better than the recent results show and they are 17-5-1 ATS their L23 neutral site games. 10* Seton Hall |
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03-11-21 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (11:30 AM ET): WVU gets an immediate shot at redemption in the first quarterfinal matchup of the day in the Big 12 Tournament. They face Oklahoma State, who just beat them 85-80 in the regular season finale. The game was in Morgantown with the Mountaineers favored by 10 as OSU was missing its leading scorer, freshman Cade Cunningham. The Cowboys have really been surging of late as they’ve won six of their last seven games (6-0 ATS L6) and are ranked #12 in the country. But even with the probability that Cunningham will return to the lineup today, I feel this is a great “sell high” opportunity on OSU, who I now view as one of the more “overrated” teams in the country. Not only do I not believe they are a top 12 team in the country, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 30! Some of the teams they’ve been recently, WVU included (also Texas Tech and Oklahoma twice), make for quality wins. But with that run and the fact they’ve covered six straight, you gotta figure they’re due to “drop one” sooner rather than later. They shot almost 58% on Saturday in Morgantown with Avery Anderson III scoring a career-high 31 points. That’s not happening again today. With a win here, West Virginia HC Bob Huggins would join just four other coaches with 900 for his career. After being denied the honor Saturday, you can bet he’ll have his team motivated today. Consider that the Mountaineers have not lost a game by more than five points since before X-Mas and two of their last three losses came in OT. They are 4-1 ATS off a conference loss this season. 8* West Virginia |
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03-10-21 | Notre Dame +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 59-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (9:00 ET): The Fighting Irish needed a buzzer-beater to get by Wake Forest last night, so most won’t be giving them a chance here as they face 6-seed North Carolina in the second round of the ACC Tournament. But falling into a big early hole is what really hurt the Irish yesterday. Wake Forest opened the game on a 21-9 run, but ND quickly moved to cut into that margin and ended the game on a 17-2 scoring run of their own. They shot 51.7% from the field, including 12 of 26 from 3-point range. I certainly didn’t like the Irish as favorites yesterday. That non-cover dropped them to 1-5 ATS their L6 games overall. But let’s not forget what they did the last time they were an underdog. It was last Saturday when they stunned Florida State in South Bend. The Irish have scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games, so - to me - they are a pretty dangerous dog. In this season’s only meeting with UNC, they lost by only one (66-65) as a 9.5-point dog in Chapel Hill. That game was decided in the closing seconds. The Tar Heels probably feel pretty good about themselves heading into this Tournament. They just clobbered rival Duke 91-73 last Saturday. But they lost the last time they were on the road (72-70 at Syracuse) and are just 6-8 SU away from Chapel Hill this season. Five of their last six games were at home. It’s been almost two months since they won B2B ACC games. The underdog has covered five of the last seven head to head meetings between these two. This is one where you’ll want to take the points as “the world” figures to be on UNC. 8* Notre Dame |
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03-10-21 | Spurs v. Mavs -4 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I’m expecting a big second half from the Mavs. Reason being they underachieved last year and that typically leads to a higher finish in Y+1. Currently, they are eighth in the Western Conference, but have won three in a row, including an impressive 115-98 road win over the Nets. They’ve won 9 of the last 11 overall, so really the “turnaround” is already underway. They’ve also won four of the last five regular season meetings with the Spurs, including the last one, 122-117 in San Antonio. That was back on January 22nd and the Mavs would then go on a perplexing six-game losing streak that led to a lot of finger pointing. But as already detailed, the ship seems to have been righted and the fact the Mavs were able to win their last game without Luka Doncic was encouraging. Doncic will play Wednesday and considering he had 36 the last time these teams played, I’m expecting a big game from the All-Star. He comes in averaging 28.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists for the season. The Spurs are 7th in the West, one spot ahead of Dallas. But I’m not sold on them maintaining that position with this “motley crew” of a roster. HC Greg Popovich will always have his team playing hard, but San Antonio went into the break with a loss to OKC. They are bottom seven in the league in effective field goal percentage and just 5-12 ATS the L17 meetings with Dallas. I took the Mavs in that prior meeting and will do so again here. 10* Dallas |
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03-10-21 | Washington State v. Arizona State | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (4:00 ET): While the injury news seems to be in Washington State’s favor heading into this 1st round matchup in the Pac 12 Tournament, I’m still siding with ASU. The Sun Devils last win came against the Cougars and while they did not cover the 5-point spread, all we’re going to need this time is a SU win. That previous meeting went to overtime, but Arizona State led virtually the entire game. They did so despite Wazzu shooting a higher percentage from three. The Sun Devils have been a bit snakebit in that they are just 5-22-1 ATS their L28 games overall. Eventually, that record HAS to turn around. Now Washington State did not have its leading scorer (Isaac Bonton) for that last meeting w/ ASU. Reportedly, he is set to return Wednesday. But I question just how effective Bonton and his teammates will be here considering they haven’t taken the floor since losing to ASU on 2/27. That’s an 11-day gap between games. The Cougars are just 6-12 SU since the New Year with three of the wins coming vs. Washington or Cal. They also took advantage of Oregon when the Ducks were depleted. Arizona State may be without its two standout freshmen, but I trust Bobby Hurley’s team will still be able to get the job done here. The regular season finale at Utah was obviously a disaster, but the Sun Devils did play Colorado tough on the road before that, at least until faltering late. I refuse to believe a team can be so inept when it comes to covering the spread and this looks to be a tremendous value. Remy Martin is due for a big game after struggling in last weekend’s pair of road games. He averages a team-high 19.9 PPG and had eight straight of 20+ before the nose diving against Colorado and Utah. 10* Arizona State |
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03-09-21 | Elon v. Drexel -3.5 | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Drexel (7:00 ET): We’ve got a 6-seed (Drexel) and an 8-seed (Elon) competing in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Final on Tuesday. Obviously, this league is nowhere near the heights it achieved 10-15 years ago with the likes of VCU and George Mason (both of whom have since bailed for the “greener pastures” of the A-10). It’s really been “wide open” ever since those teams left and the fact we’ve got a 6 and an 8 seed playing in the Tournament Final speaks to that. However, I think Drexel was actually one of the better CAA teams this year and is quite likely to move on to the “Big Dance” next weekend. Other than regular season champ James Madison (who got bounced by Elon in the quarterfinals), Drexel had the highest rating among CAA teams over at KenPom. My own power ratings actually call them the BEST team in the CAA this season! So I’m not at all surprised to see the Dragons here. They were favored against 3-seed Charleston and 2-seed Northeastern in their first two tournament matchups. If you’re wondering how they ended up being the 6-seed, well that’s because they’ve played only five games since the beginning of February! That includes their two tourney games. Meanwhile, Elon is playing its fourth game in as many as days in what has been an improbable run. I did not expect to see them here. The Phoenix are a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS their L7 games and were the underdog in five of them. Three of those seven wins came against either Towson or William & Mary, the bottom two in the CAA. Elon did upset top-seed James Madison, but that was a 1-point win where they were down 10 at the half. Even with the high stakes here, you’ve got to think the tank is “near empty.” Drexel is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this season, so I won’t hesitate to lay the short number. 10* Drexel |
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03-07-21 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET): In my view, Appalachian State is clearly the weakest of the four semifinalists in this Sun Belt Tournament. That's hardly a “hot take” considering the Mountaineers are the only team of the four left standing that did NOT finish in the top two of either Sun Belt division. They got here first with a 67-60 win over Little Rock, then a 76-73 win against Texas State. The latter was an upset (ASU was +5) and a game that went to OT after the Mountaineers pulled off a second-half rally. I think their run ends here. Coastal Carolina has only had to play one tourney game to this point and it was rout as they beat Troy 86-68 yesterday. Interestingly enough, the Chanticleers’ last three wins have all come against Troy as have five of their last seven wins overall. They enter tonight’s semi final on a 4-game win streak. Even though Texas State (who App State beat yday) was technically the 1-seed in this tournament, I have Coastal Carolina rated higher in my own power ratings. The Chanticleers scored 53 pts in the 2H yesterday. The only edge App State has in this matchup is they take better care of the basketball. Do not expect them to match yday’s 12 of 27 shooting from 3-point range. They are only 10th in the Sun Belt in three-point shooting. Defensively, no team in the conference has given up a higher effective FG% from 2 and 3 point range. Coastal Carolina is #1 in the SBC in both categories and is also #1 in offensive rebounding. This is a big break for them getting ASU in the semis and they’ll take advantage. 8* Coastal Carolina |
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03-07-21 | Penn State v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 66-61 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps suffered a terrible loss their last time out, They were beaten at Northwestern, 60-55 as 4.5-point chalk, a result that did their NCAA Tournament hopes no favors. Now they are still projected as a 9-seed, but were they to lose B2B games to Big 10 also-rans, that wouldn’t be good. This conference is filled with good teams, but N’western isn’t one of them and neither is Penn State, who comes calling to College Park Sunday evening. I expect Maryland to bounce back here. Penn State recorded a blowout victory in its last game, 84-65 against Minnesota, which was the Nittany Lions’ home finale. But wins have been few and far between for this team as it was just the second for PSU in the L7 games. The other came against last place Nebraska. Now the “elephant in the room” here is that the Nittany Lions did beat Maryland 55-50 back on Feb 5th. But since that time, the teams have trended in opposite directions. The 2-5 slide for PSU began right after while Maryland is 5-2 since. Maryland allowed N’western to score the game’s final six points Wednesday, which ended a five-game win streak. It was a dreadful shooting night the first time they faced Penn State, but I do not anticipate that happening again as the Terrapins score 74.3 PPG here at home where they generally shoot well. Penn State has the worst 2-pt FG% in the conference and typically relies on offensive rebounding to increase production. But Maryland is a solid defensive rebounding team. They shoot the three well and teams are making 54.2% of their 2PA against PSU in Big 10 play. The Nittany Lions are just 2-8 SU on the road and will not match their 3-pt shooting from the last game. 10* Maryland |
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03-06-21 | VMI v. Furman -7.5 | Top | 91-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
9* Furman (8:00 ET): Despite finishing third in the regular season, I think an argument can be made that Furman is the strongest team in the SoCon entering the Tournament. But before they can concentrate on the likes of UNC Greensboro and Wofford (the top two seeds), there’s a matter of revenge to take care of here in the quarter finals. They play VMI, who upset them back on January 11th. That 74-73 loss (as 11-pt favorites) did not specifically cost the Paladins a top two seed, but it definitely hurt. When you couple it with another 74-73 loss (to Wofford) last Saturday, you realize Furman was basically two points away from being the top seed in this tournament. VMI also happens to be off a one-point loss, 75-74 at The Citadel. But that was TWO Saturdays ago. They finished 6th in the conference, but there’s a pretty substantial dropoff after the top five. Now give credit where credit is due. The Keydets did beat Furman. But that was at home and it was a cold-shooting night for the Paladins. They made only 37% of their FG attempts while VMI sank 44% from three-point range. Despite those disparate numbers, it was still only a one-point game. The number here is several points shorter than it was when Furman travelled to face VMI. So I’m seeing some value right off the bat. Furman had won four in a row, all by nine points or more, before losing at Wofford last Saturday. Like I said earlier, I still consider them the favorites to win this tournament and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are favored in every game. I think the two-week layoff hurts VMI here. 9* Furman |
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03-06-21 | Seton Hall -1 v. St. John's | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): Twice I faded St. John’s last month and both times it ended up being a winning bet. The first time was against Butler (2/9) when the Red Storm entered in on an 8-game ATS win streak. They lost 76-73 as a 2.5-point underdog. That was close. But things were much more comfortable when I took DePaul +11.5 here in NYC on Feb 20th. The Blue Demons, who are having a terrible season, came in and upset the Johnnies 88-83. As I said in the analysis for both picks, this team has some real issues defensively. They are allowing 77.0 PPG for the season. Seton Hall is St. John’s opponent Saturday. This is an “old school” Big East rivalry and the Pirates have had the upper hand recently, winning the last three meetings. That includes 77-68 earlier this season. Now the Pirates come into this rematch with some “egg on their face” after dropping three in a row, all as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 games overall. But I view this as an excellent “buy low” opportunity and judging from the early line movement, so too do a lot of sharp bettors. Seton Hall has scored 60 points or less in four of its last five games. Those offensive woes should come to an end today. Prior to beating Providence Wednesday, St. John’s had allowed 76 or more points in five consecutive contests. There could also be a key absence here for the Red Storm as PG Posh Alexander (second leading scorer) is dealing with a thumb injury. According to Joe Lunardi, Seton Hall is currently the first team OUT on the NCAA Tournament bubble. That makes this a “must-win.” After falling apart in the 2H at home vs. UConn on Weds, motivation will be at an all-time high. St. John’s did beat Providence by 14 on Weds, but also trailed by as many as 11 early on. 10* Seton Hall |
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03-06-21 | Indiana +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 58-67 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
8* Indiana (2:00 ET): Already seeing their NCAA Tournament hopes dwindle, the Hoosiers could be without two starters today against #23 Purdue. They lost for a fourth straight time Tuesday, 64-58 at Michigan State and seemed to fade down the stretch. Race Thompson, who leads the team in FG%, exited with a facial injury and is questionable to play here. Second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin is almost certain to miss a third straight game due to a foot injury. But despite all the attrition, I expect IU to “show up” on Saturday. Take the points with what should be a VERY motivated underdog. While Indiana has been languishing, in-state rival Purdue has been surging. The Boilermakers have won four in a row with the latest victory coming against Wisconsin, 73-69 (as 2-pt favorites) on Tuesday. However, this feels like a golden opportunity to “sell high.” Much of Purdue’s recent success has come against teams in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. With Indiana’s injury woes and the fact Purdue has won eight in a row in this rivalry, don’t be surprised if the favorite comes in overconfident. I don’t blame the injuries for IU’s loss Tuesday. The team shot 2 of 20 from three-point range and leading scorer Jackson-Davis (19.4 PPG) finished with only nine points. Still, the team lost by only six points. A lot of Purdue’s recent wins have been against Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska. In an 8-3 SU stretch, those bottom four teams in the Big 10 account for six of the Boilermakers’ wins. The seniors on Indiana, having NEVER beaten Purdue, are gonna give everything they have here and I expect a close game Saturday afternoon. 8* Indiana |
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03-05-21 | Georgia Tech v. Wake Forest +9 | Top | 75-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (8:00 ET): These are certainly two teams trending in opposite directions with Georgia Tech coming in on a 5-game SU win streak (also 6-0 ATS L6) and Wake Forest now 0-6 ATS its last six games and 0-5 SU its L5. Furthermore, the Yellow Jackets already own a 70-54 win (at home) against the Demon Deacons. That game took place back on January 3rd. You may recall I used GT two weeks ago when they travelled to Va Tech and won 69-53. They’ve since prevailed against Duke and Syracuse, both of those wins coming in Atlanta. The key here is the Yellow Jackets aren’t this big of a favorite very often. This point spread is a clear byproduct of recent form as Wake Forest is off five consecutive double digit defeats. It’s admittedly been a BRUTAL stretch as both Clemson and Va Tech held them under 50 points, then came a loss to a bad Pitt team (on Tuesday) that had one of its best players just recently transfer. But I don’t think the Demon Deacons are as bad as some of these scores show. They’d actually covered seven of eight before the 6-game ATS slide, showing how volatile the point spread can be. That 7-1 ATS stretch included them taking Florida State into overtime. Georgia Tech is now firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble after snapping a 14-game losing streak to Duke. The Yellow Jackets won that game 81-77 in overtime after blowing a seven-point lead in the final 30 seconds of regulation. They’ve now clinched a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, which is huge. But this just REEKS of a letdown game and the only time they’ve been favored by this many points in ACC play is when they HOSTED Wake in early January. The fact the line is basically the same on the road means there’s value on the home dog and I’m going to take it. Ga Tech is just 3-5 SU on the road this season. 8* Wake Forest |
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03-05-21 | Hawaii +3.5 v. UC-Davis | Top | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* Hawaii (7:00 ET): I’ve got Hawaii rated as the better team here and I don’t think whatever “home court advantage” exists in 2021 is enough to justify UC Davis being a slight favorite in this Big West matchup Friday night. UC Davis is on a five-game win streak, but three of the last four victories have been by two points with two of them coming in overtime. Hawaii has also been successful in close games recently as their last three victories have been by a total of six points. But they are 0-6 ATS L6 and I think they’re due to end that unusual streak. Hawaii swept its two games with Long Beach State last weekend, winning 78-76 and 79-76. Those games took place out in Honolulu and both times the Warriors had to rally from halftime deficits. This will be just the second trip to the mainland since the end of January. The other one resulted in a split of two games with CS Northridge. Having been favored in each of its last four games, I see some value on Hawaii here against a UC Davis team that often struggles to defend. The host Aggies are allowing opponents to shoot 49.3% for the year when they are at home. Now the defense has gotten a bit better during the five-game win streak as they’ve allowed more than 66 just once. At the same time though, they’re not shooting the ball that well, which has been an issue throughout conference play (40.9 FG%). Hawaii has taken 7 of the last 10 meetings, including all four the previous two seasons. A case of the better team getting points here tonight. 10* Hawaii |
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03-04-21 | Arizona State +10.5 v. Colorado | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (9:00 ET): FYI - this game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Arizona State and Colorado both come into tonight on three-game winning streaks. However, that’s where the similarities end as the season has gone MUCH better for the Buffaloes. I’ve previously stated that I think CU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. However, if there is a “bone to pick” in Boulder, it’s that the Buffs oftentimes “play down” to their competition. Coming off wins over USC and UCLA, I think that might be the case here. Arizona State has had a dreadful season at the betting window as they are 4-16 ATS. But the Sun Devils have not only won three straight, but also six of their last nine games. The last three were all in Tempe and they were favored against Washington twice and Washington State last Saturday. They failed to cover the last two, so they’re now 0-9 ATS the L9 times they’ve been favored. But it’s a pretty big number they’re GETTING here tonight and I like it as the Sun Devils have suffered only three double digit losses since 2021 began. This is also Colorado’s final regular season game (ASU has one more, at Utah) and they’ve already clinched a 1st round bye in the Pac 12 Tournament. So the tendency for a “let down” is even more prevalent. It’s not like Senior Night means what it normally does. The Buffaloes have already lost to Cal and Washington as a big favorite and while those came on the road, they are still just 1-7 ATS when facing a team with a losing record past the 15-game mark in the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona State |
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03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies +6 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This year’s Bucks team just doesn’t seem as strong compared to the previous two seasons. They are third in the Eastern Conference and were just trounced (at home) by Denver, 128-97, Tuesday night. I concede that there are several underlying metrics that indicate Milwaukee is still the best team in the East. They’ve won five in a row before the Nuggets loss. But they have a losing record on the road (7-9 SU/6-10 ATS) and tonight they are in Memphis. The Grizzlies have won B2B games to get back over the Mendoza Line. They are 16-15 SU on the season and in ninth place in the much tougher Western Conference. Strangely, they’ve not been all that good at home (7-10 SU), although they did recently defeat the Clippers by 28 here. Each of their last two wins were on the road and they were blowouts, particularly the one vs. Houston (133-84). More recently, they won in D.C., beating the Wizards 125-111 as a 1-point dog. Both teams have been dealing with some key absences of late and with this being the last game before the Break, most of those players figure to remain out. But it does look as if Kyle Anderson is set to return for the Grizz and he’s the team’s best outside shooter. Memphis has had a different leading scorer in each of its last three wins, so they don’t necessarily rely on one player. At the defensive end, they’ve allowed an average of just 102 points the L5 games. Having also scored at least 122 in three of the last four, the Grizzlies should easily cover tonight. 10* Memphis |
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03-04-21 | Southern Illinois v. Bradley +2.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
8* Bradley (6:00 ET): I think we’ve got ourselves a “false favorite” here in the 1st round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, meaning the WRONG team is favored. Now I’d obviously be even MORE “all in” on Bradley were they not dealing with several suspensions. But my own power ratings say the Braves should be the ones favored here over 9-seed Southern Illinois, who I think was the worst team in the entire MVC during the regular season. About a month ago, these teams split a pair of meetings in Peoria, but SIU’s win came by just a single point. Now those two meetings did come before the suspensions that were handed down to four Bradley players. To address the “elephant in the room,” those suspensions came about due to an ongoing police report. But the suspensions also didn’t stop the Braves from stunning Drake this past weekend, 67-61 as an 8.5-point home dog. Drake is probably a NCAA Tournament team, whether or not they win this Tournament. The previous four games had not been good for Bradley, but Saturday’s upset tells me they can still beat the worst team in the Missouri Valley. Southern Illinois lost a couple close ones to Loyola Chicago last weekend. One of the games even went to overtime. But this is a team that has just ONE win by greater than three points going back to the start of the 2021 calendar year! The Salukis are on a 3-0 ATS win streak right now, but were obviously huge dogs in both games against Loyola. They’ve been favored away from home (this game is in St. Louis) only one other time this season and that was the very first game (vs. SE Missouri State). Since opening 7-0 SU, they are just 4-13 SU overall. 8* Bradley |
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03-03-21 | Idaho State +13.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
8* Idaho State (9:05 ET): While not a lot of people are going to be playing this matchup tonight, it already feels like the sharp money is on Idaho State. The Bengals are certainly not going to attract a lot of attention from the public, but this is a great spot to take them. They did just lose two in a row at home, both to Montana. But the games were close (decided by a total of seven points) and ISU hasn’t been this big of an underdog since it covered the spread at Utah back on December 8th. Now there’s a reason the spread is so large for tonight. Eastern Washington leads the Big Sky with an 11-2 SU conference record and has won its last nine games. They’ve covered the spread in the last five and are 7-2 ATS L9. But a two-week layoff probably came at the wrong time. The Eagles haven’t played since winning at Montana on February 22nd and could very well be “out of rhythm” for tonight. That’s a concern when laying such a big number at the betting window. Idaho State is 6-2 ATS on the road this season. For all their dominance, Eastern Washington has been asked to lay 12.5 or more points only one time at home. That was against last place Idaho, who is 1-20 SU. Idaho State is better than they are being given credit for. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS coming off a conference loss. They are tied for 4th in the Big Sky and while there’s a big gap between the top three and everyone else, it’s a respectable place to be. Take the points. 8* Idaho State |
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03-03-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +9.5 | Top | 71-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNLV (9:00 ET): This is a golden opportunity for UNLV to possibly spring an upset. That may seem like a shocking statement considering how well San Diego State has played recently. But the Rebels almost always seem to give the Aztecs fits as the last four meetings have all been decided by single digits with three of those final margins being four points or less. The last time the teams met was just over a year ago and UNLV won that one (on the road) 66-63 as 14.5-point underdogs. The Aztecs have swept their last five opponents, winning 10 in a row overall with nine of the wins coming by 12 or more. They are ranked #19 in the latest AP Poll (#21 in Coaches). However, they’ve really been feasting on the bottom of the Mountain West with eight of those 10 victories coming against teams in the lower half of the standings. They had a lot more trouble last weekend with a good Boise State team as those wins came by just 4 and 12 points. The 12-point victory is completely misleading as that game went to OT. SDSU’s regular season was supposed to end Saturday, but this is a make-up game. UNLV has another make-up game coming Saturday at Wyoming. So it is their final home game before the MWC Tournament (played here in Vegas). The Rebels have won three of four, including a big comeback against Fresno State on Friday. Over its last eight games, UNLV has been beaten by more than three points only one time. They are 8-3 SU at home and averaging 12.6 more PPG than they allow. Take the points. 10* UNLV |
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03-03-21 | Oregon State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
8* Utah (7:00 ET): Oregon State has been one of the best bets in the country over the last two months as they are 12-1-1 ATS their L14 games including six straight covers. This is actually the Beavers’ second six-game ATS win streak during that time. The first ended with a push against Washington State (they won that game by two) then they were annihilated 79-48 at Colorado. Since then, yes they are 6-0 ATS, but only 3-3 SU. OSU has won two straight, both on the road, but I feel their “mojo” runs out here as they play a third straight road game against a revenge-minded Utah squad. Lay the short number in this one. On Saturday, Utah showed what it is capable of as they beat USC 71-61 right here in Salt Lake City. The Utes were 4.5-point underdogs in that one, as you figured they might be considering they were up against the team many feel is the best in the Pac 12 this year. But the Utes played an almost flawless second half and went on to record its first win of the season against a Top 25 opponent. However, that’s a little misleading as they've also beaten Colorado (before the Buffaloes were ranked). Utah is far better than its 10-11 SU record as there have been a few losses this year where they blew large halftime leads. They’ve beaten USC, Colorado and Arizona, which is no small achievement. One team they did not beat was Oregon State as two weeks ago it was an 18-point loss in Corvallis. Interestingly enough, the Utes were favored (by two) to win that day. I think we’re getting a real “discount” on them at home tonight as the Beavers average only 62.1 PPG away from home while the Utes allow just 64.1 PPG at home. Prior to winning its last two games, OSU was just 1-6 SU in road games. 8* Utah |
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03-02-21 | Illinois +8 v. Michigan | Top | 76-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Illinois (7:00 ET): You’ve gotta hand it to Michigan. Since returning to action (season paused for 3 weeks due to COVID), the Wolverines have faced Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana. They not only beat all four, they covered the spread in every game. They also beat Rutgers on 2/18, but were denied a cover on the final shot of the game. The end result of this is that the Wolverines are now ranked #2 in the country (thanks to Baylor losing Saturday). They’ll faced their fourth Top 25 opponent in the L16 days here and that opponent is #4 Illinois. The Fighting Illini could again be short-handed Tuesday as leading scorer Ayo Dosunmo is still dealing with a broken nose. But they didn’t have him Saturday when they went to Madison and beat Wisconsin 74-69 as a 4.5-point dog. Nor did they have him in a 16-point win at Nebraska. They actually led wire to wire against Wisconsin, despite it being their third game in five days and not having their leading scorer. This is a team with just one loss in its last 10 games. Even before that, they always deserved to be considered among the very best teams in the country. This number is clearly inflated in light of Dosunmu’s uncertain status. To be clear, I’m taking the points regardless. Four of the Illini’s six losses this season have been by six points or less. My own personal power rankings put this number at +4. Illinois has been an underdog only three times all season and won two of the three outright. Michigan has undoubtedly been excellent, but they are also “due” for a slip-up. Illinois is a better team than Ohio State and better defensively than Iowa. Kofi Cockburn has really stepped up in Dosunmo’s absence and if the latter can play here, consider it a bonus. 10* Illinois |
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03-02-21 | Arkansas v. South Carolina +7 | Top | 101-73 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
8* South Carolina (6:30 ET): So, here’s the thing. For much of this season, I’ve been saying Arkansas was a whole heck of a lot better than people think. Wouldn’t you know, the Razorbacks are now on a 9-game SEC win streak and have climbed to #12 (in the country!) in the polls? Now I think they’re being slightly overrated! It’s time to “sell high” on the Hogs, at least temporarily, as they travel to Columbia Tuesday night to face a South Carolina team that’s off a 21-point win at Georgia. That 21-point win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Gamecocks as they are near the bottom of the SEC standings. But you wouldn’t have known that by watching them Saturday as they raced out to a double digit halftime lead and were up by as many as 25 in the 2H. There’s something about playing Georgia that brings out the best in South Carolina as they’ve now beaten the Bulldogs 10 straight times, including 83-59 earlier in the year. Now they’ll try and win B2B SEC games for the first time this season. I’m not convinced the home team can win outright tonight, but I do like them plus the points. Arkansas is just 4-4 SU away from Fayetteville with the two most recent wins coming by a total of six points. The Razorbacks actually trailed LSU by 10 in the first half Saturday (this was at home) so the 8-point win was a little misleading. Keep your eyes on South Carolina’s Jermain Couisnard, who had a season-high 23 points over the weekend. Arkansas hasn’t been great defending the 3-point line on the road (allowing 40%), which is why they give up an average of 82.4 PPG away from home. This is the Gamecocks’ home finale, so they’ll be motivated. 8* South Carolina |
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03-01-21 | Arizona v. Oregon -4.5 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
8* Oregon (9:00 ET): Oregon has taken 9 of the last 11 meetings from Arizona, including six straight. Each of the last three have been really close, however don’t look for that to be the case tonight. It all boils down to motivation as Arizona is playing its final game due to a postseason ban. Oregon is rolling right now (won 7 of 8) and trying to lock down the top seed for the Pac 12 Tournament. Tonight should be a much easier win for the Ducks than it was in Tucson a few weeks ago. Lay the points. Oregon just completed a three-game road trip on Saturday with a 74-63 win over Cal as nine-point chalk. They led wire to wire. The team’s only loss in its last eight games came at the start of the road trip, exactly one week ago at USC. There’s no shame in that loss. Ever since putting the COVID issues behind them, the Ducks have really looked great and I consider them to be the third best team in the league, behind Colorado and USC. They are 9-2 here at home where they allow only 62.8 PPG. Arizona is 5th in the Pac 12, which is an accurate representation of where they are at in the conference pecking order. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak, which includes a win at USC, but the other two victories were against Washington State and Washington. They only won by one (75-74) on Saturday and that was against perhaps the worst team in the conference. The game-winner came with just 5.2 seconds remaining. While the Wildcats usually dominate the glass, that wasn’t the case in the 1st game with the Ducks. 8* Oregon |
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03-01-21 | Jazz v. Pelicans +7 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Turns out the Jazz aren’t infallible after all as they just dropped a game in Miami Friday, 124-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Now they did immediately bounce back with a 124-109 road win against sorry Orlando. With that win and cover, Utah is now an incredible 23-3 SU and 22-4 ATS its last 26 games. But as I’ve written before, maybe we shouldn’t be *THAT* surprised about the team’s SU record considering it has gone off as the favorite in all but two games this season. Now the ATS record is clearly impressive and there’s no denying the Jazz have been the league’s best team to this point. They’ve outscored the opposition by 9.7 PPG. However, can they possibly continue covering the spread at this rate? I don’t think so. Tonight they are laying a hefty number to a Pelicans team that I feel is better than its overall record. New Orleans is off B2B close losses, both on the road, against Milwaukee and San Antonio. They are now just 11th in the Western Conference and five games below .500. Given that the Pelicans’ were the 8-seed in LY’s playoffs and expected to be better in 2020-21, their current standing has to be considered a disappointment. But, once again, I believe they are better than the record shows. Zion Williamson has been a beast and the team posted the league’s best offensive efficiency rating in the month of February. Now defense has been a much different story and facing the league’s most prolific three-point shooting team doesn’t sound like a good matchup. However, I believe the Pelicans will score enough tonight to “keep pace.” Take the points. 10* New Orleans |
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02-28-21 | Knicks v. Pistons | Top | 109-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): This is WAY too much respect for a Pistons team that is in last place in the Eastern Conference. While I don’t think Detroit is necessarily the worst team in the East, that’s a pretty low bar. Meanwhile, the Knicks may actually be for real as they battled back to defeat Indiana 110-107 last night to get back to .500 for the first time in over a month. That’s good enough for 5th in the conference, a shocking place for a team that no one expected to do well this season. Julius Randle led the way last night with 28 points and 10 rebounds for the Knicks. It was their second consecutive win as well as the sixth in the last eight games. How is it that the Knicks are beating expectations? In a word, “defense.” They lead the entire NBA in scoring defense (shocking!) and give up 5.2 PPG fewer than the next best team in the East! Tonight they are facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league in Detroit, who is 27th in effective field goal percentage. The Pistons fell behind by as many as 17 early against Sacramento on Friday, then ended up blowing an eight-point 4Q lead. It’s been that kind of year in the Motor City. The team has won just one of its last six and topped 107 (points) just one time in that stretch (and it wasn’t the game they won). They’re more short-handed compared to the Knicks right now and the fact the Pistons are 6-0 ATS this season vs. Atlantic Division teams seems like a statistical oddity. The key to that ATS record is they are usually big underdogs. Not here. 10* New York |
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02-28-21 | Florida International +16.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 58-91 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
10* Florida International (3:00 ET): It’s been a REALLY rough stretch for FIU as they’ve not only lost 12 in a row straight up to D-I opposition, but they’re also just 1-11 ATS in those games! The Panthers’ only win since January 8th came against Florida Memorial. What’s so odd about all of this is that they got off to a decent start to the season as they stood at 8-3 SU after the first 11 games. The bottom has completely dropped out, but for several reasons (see below) I think they’re catching today’s opponent at a most opportune time. Western Kentucky stepped out of conference play earlier this week and that did not go well for them. They were thumped 81-57 at Houston. Now the Hilltoppers are 6-0 L6 C-USA games and Houston is a top 10 team in the country. So you’d think that WKU has nothing to “hang their heads” over and, really, they don’t. However, don’t be surprised if this turns into a bit of a “letdown” scenario. Certainly they were expecting to do better against Houston and it’ll be easy to overlook FIU. Bottom line: it’s a boatload of points we’re getting here. I do not expect an outright upset by any means. But FIU is only being outscored by 1.1 PPG on the year. WKU is only +4.1 PPG on the year and even at home that number only jumps to +9.6. I know the Panthers’ best player just left the program, but I see the team competing on Sunday. WKU is just 5-9 ATS as a favorite, including 0-3 when laying 12.5 or more at home. 10* Florida International |
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02-27-21 | San Francisco -1 v. Pacific | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:00 ET): San Francisco is a better team than what they’ve shown recently. The Dons come into this regular season finale on a five-game losing streak, although they at least covered the spread (+9.5) Thursday night at BYU. Before that, they’d failed to cover four in a row and three of those were outright losses as favorites. But most of these losses, save for when they have to face Gonzaga, have been close. I think they go into the WCC Tournament on a “high note” as it should be an easy win tonight at Pacific. Pacific also hasn’t had much to cheer about lately. They’ve dropped 7 of their last 10 and two of those three wins came against an atrocious Portland team that is the worst in the whole WCC. The other was against San Diego, who is in second to last place. Thursday saw the Tigers lose an ugly one, 56-48 at St. Mary’s as they were held to just 32.8% shooting including 2 of 9 from three-point range. It was also the sixth time in the last 11 Pacific games they were kept under 60 points. Incredibly, USF has been held to just 38.2% shooting while allowing 56.0% shooting during its five game losing streak. That can’t continue. As I just mentioned, Pacific is not a great offensive team (below 30% for the year from 3-point range!) and the Dons are still only allowing 30.7% shooting from behind the arc on the road this season. I just can’t see them losing for a sixth straight time. The road team has covered seven of the last eight meetings. 8* San Francisco |
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02-26-21 | New Mexico State v. Tarleton St +8.5 | Top | 78-51 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): My own personal power ratings say the oddsmakers are still underrating Tarleton State. Now the Texans are by no means a great team, or even a good one, but I think they deserve far more respect than what they are getting here at home vs. New Mexico State tonight. It was exactly one week ago that I backed Tarleton State and they ended up winning at Dixie State by a score of 77-59. While they lost the follow-up (Saturday), I still believe they’re underrated here. New Mexico State is coming off a split of its own last weekend as they won one and lost one at home vs. Utah Valley State. The key is they won the second game. It has been almost three months since the Aggies won B2B games and when they did it was the first two games of the season, both of which were against non-DI opponents. COVID-19 really wreaked havoc on NMSU’s early season schedule, but they’ve played six games in February and gone 3-3 SU. They are 1-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite this season. Last Friday I said it was hard to justify Dixie State being a favorite against anyone. This week I’m saying it’s just as difficult to justify NMSU being a road favorite, especially one of this size. Tarleton State is 4-2 SU at home and while most of those wins were against non-DI teams, they’ve averaged 88.7 PPG. New Mexico State shoots just 27.2% from three-point range on the road while Tarleton State shoots at 40% for the year from there. Not only can the home team cover this one, they can win the game outright. 8* Tarleton State |
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02-26-21 | UL - Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2 | Top | 66-61 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
8* Little Rock (7:30 ET): Little Rock has really hit the skids of late by losing its last six games. They were favored to win in each of the last four, so it’s REALLY been a disappointing stretch. The Trojans got swept by Texas State, Arkansas State and LA Monroe. However, key to understanding this streak is the fact that only one game was played here at home and that was only a two-point loss to Arkansas State. The team is back in Little Rock tonight and I like their chances against Louisiana, who is not sound defensively. These Sun Belt teams have already met twice this year, both times in Lafayette, and they split the pair. Both games were decided by just two points and interesting enough the Trojans were favored both times. So it certainly seems as if we’re getting a “discount” on them for tonight’s “rubber match” and the obvious explanation for that has been their poor recent form. Now their win in Lafayette earlier this season did see the Trojans come back from 10 down at the half to win in OT. But the loss was even crazier as the lights in the Cajun Dome briefly turned red on the final possession, clearly screwing with Little Rock’s final possession. It was absurd that the refs did nothing. While Little Rock continues to struggle from three-point range, they do lead the Sun Belt in 2-point FG% and free throw rate. So I believe they are going to be able to score plenty tonight against the team with the worst defensive efficiency rating in the conference. Louisiana gives up 77.8 PPG on the road and is just 1-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. The time is right for Little Rock to snap its long (and somewhat shocking) losing streak. 8* Little Rock |
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02-26-21 | Drake v. Bradley +9 | Top | 80-71 | Push | 0 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Bradley (7:00 ET): So there is a bit of a risk involved here as Bradley continues to be without three suspended players, including their two top leading scorers. (The suspensions are a part of an ongoing police investigation). The three games they’ve played since the suspensions have NOT gone well for the Braves as they’re 0-3 SU/ATS. However, the Braves get a break tonight in that Drake will be without its leading scorer (Shanquan Hemphill) and I don’t think that’s been properly accounted for in this line. Take the points. Bradley has been a massive underachiever this year in the Missouri Valley as they were projected to finish third and even got one first place vote in the preseason poll. Instead, they are 5-11 SU in conference play, which is tied for second worst. Despite the suspensions, the Braves still found themselves favored last Thursday here at home vs. Illinois State. They haven’t played since, so that’s a full week off to prepare for one of the toughest teams in the MVC. It should do the home dog some good. Drake’s absurd ATS run seems to be never ending as the Bulldogs are now 55-30 ATS their L85 games, including 18-4 this season. They’ve now won four straight since getting blown out at home by Loyola Chicago two weeks ago, which was a game I faded the Bulldogs. This is the first meeting of the year with Bradley and obviously a game Drake “can’t” lose, given that they are currently tied w/ Loyola a top the MVC standings. But playing w/o their leading scorer, the spread is just too high. 8* Bradley |
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02-25-21 | USC v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
10* Colorado (9:00 ET): Colorado has beaten USC five straight times, covering all but once and that was last year here in Boulder when they won 70-66 as a 9.5-point favorite. They’ve already beaten the Trojans once this season and that was on New Year’s Eve, 72-62 as a 4-point underdog. I’ve been quite vocal for months now that CU is a Top 25 caliber team and tonight is their chance to prove it. It speaks volumes that they are favored here against the #19 team in the country. I know it’s a home game, but I’m betting big on the Buffs tonight in a game they desperately need to have. Colorado is currently 4th in the Pac 12 standings, though I think it’s them and USC that are the two best teams. They trail the Trojans by 2.5 games with three more to play, but sweeping the season series would go a long way in keeping their chances alive to win the conference. A loss tonight and they’d be officially eliminated. Saturday saw the Buffaloes snap their first losing streak of this season (just two games) by beating Oregon State 61-57. They did not cover, dropping them to 2-6 ATS L8 games, but it’s only a small number we’re having to lay in this one. USC responded from its own loss by beating Oregon last time out. It was a very impressive effort against what had been a red hot Ducks team, however that game took place on Monday, which puts the Trojans at a bit of a disadvantage here. They’ve had just two days off between games while CU has had four. The Buffs have been very impressive at home this season, winning by an average of almost 19 PPG. USC’s third leading scorer (Isaiah Mobley) missed the Oregon game w/ a calf injury and is questionable to play here. I don’t think the Trojans will be getting off to the same kind of start we saw Monday (led by 21 at the break). 10* Colorado |
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02-25-21 | Clippers -8 v. Grizzlies | Top | 94-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): The Clippers look to win two in a row for the first time in 10 days as they travel to Memphis tonight. The Grizzlies have been struggling (lost 8 of 12), so a win here should be a formality for the road team. Then comes the matter of covering the spread. That’s something the Clips have done in five of the last seven games, including rather easily on Tuesday when they smashed Washington 135-116. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard combined for 62 points in what was the duo’s third straight game on the court together. When those two are both healthy, this is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA. I don’t think they’ll have much difficulty covering the number tonight. Memphis has not only lost its last two games, but they also failed to score 100 points both times. Monday’s 102-92 loss to the Mavericks came on the heels of an embarrassing 128-97 loss to the Suns here at home. The last three teams that the Grizzlies have defeated are: Detroit, OKC and Sacramento. Their only other win since Feb 1 came against a Charlotte team that was in the second night of a back to back. Injuries have been a problem all season for the Grizz and they are still without the services of Dillon Brooks. This would be a hard matchup for them even if fully healthy, but they’re nowhere close to that right now. The Clippers are #2 in the league in offensive efficiency right now and Memphis has allowed its previous five opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the floor. As a road favorite, the Clips are on a 44-20 ATS run. 10* LA Clippers |
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02-25-21 | Iowa +4 v. Michigan | Top | 57-79 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
8* Iowa (7:00 ET): It’s a top 10 battle in Ann Arbor Thursday night as #3 Michigan faces #9 Iowa. This is the second straight Top 10 opponent for the Wolverines as they just outlasted Ohio State 92-87 on Sunday as a 2-point road favorite. That made it three straight wins for the Maize and Blue since they got back on the court following a three-week absence. While it’s tough to “poke holes” in a team that’s 16-1 SU on the season, it should be pointed out that those last three wins have all been by eight points or less. Iowa has won four straight, three of them by double digits. Two were on the road, at Michigan State and at Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes won those games by a combined 45 points! The one close one came Sunday as they beat Penn State by only six, 74-68 as a 10-point favorite. The Hawkeyes actually trailed at the half in that one, though there was plenty of cause for celebration as Luke Garza became the program’s all-time leading scorer. Also, Iowa’s defense has gotten much better over the L5 games as they’re holding opponents to just 36% shooting. Something about Iowa being an underdog is that three of their six losses this year have been by five points or less. I’m going to take the points here as the teams are rated almost even in my own power ratings. Yes, I’ve got Iowa rated better than the team Michigan just beat, Ohio State. The Wolverines also had to rally back from their own halftime deficit against Wisconsin. The fact they are playing two straight top 10 opponents is tough while the third time should be the charm for Iowa against top five teams (lost to Gonzaga & Illinois). 8* Iowa |
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02-24-21 | Lakers +8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 89-114 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): Roughly halfway through the third quarter Monday night, I thought I had an easy winner with Charlotte +12. After all, they were leading the Jazz outright by 11 points! But Utah, as they are apt to do, stormed back to win for the 21st time in the last 23 games. Not only that, they covered the 12-point spread rather easily as the final score was 132-110! I’m not joking here when I say they made 28 of 55 three-point attempts. That was a franchise record for makes and 19 of them came from bench players. Utah has already made 500 threes this season, needing just 31 games to do so, a league-record. Elsewhere on Monday night, the Lakers blew all of a 17-point lead and fell to the Wizards 127-124 in overtime. That was the third straight loss for the NBA Champs, the first that’s happened this season. Obviously, missing Anthony Davis hurts and LeBron James is playing a lot of minutes as a result. James has now logged the third most minutes of any player in the league, something Lakers’ fans certainly don’t want to see from the 36-year old. Before everyone starts overreacting though, I’ll point out the Lakers were off to 22-7 start before this losing streak began. They’ll be fine. They’re still a top four team in net efficiency. Utah is #1 in all categories right now and tonight will mark the 30th time they’ve been favored in 32 games. So it really shouldn’t be THAT big of a surprise to see them doing so well. Still though, it is shocking to see them laying this many points to the Lakers. I’m going to grab the points here as LA certainly isn’t accustomed to being an underdog, especially one of this size. The only previous game this season where they were getting points was at Milwaukee (+1.5) and they won outright. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game since the end of the 2018-19 season. 8* LA Lakers |
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02-24-21 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 70-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I’m going all in on the Vols Wednesday as they visit in-state rival Vandy. Tennessee is off a loss here (to Kentucky) and is just 3-3 SU in its last six games. This slide has dropped them to #25 in the rankings, but I’m not that worried as they remain much higher in my own power ratings and are a top five team in defensive efficiency. It would certainly appear as if we’re getting a real “discount” on UT tonight considering they were 21.5-point favorites the first time they faced Vandy, a game they won comfortably, 81-61. I’ll gladly lay the number on the road here. Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 2-10 SU conference record. After recording that second win on February 13th, 72-51 at Mississippi State, the Commodores have subsequently dropped B2B games by the same 82-78 score. They were against Kentucky and Alabama. But note they actually trailed UK by as much as 17 and while they were more competitive vs. Bama, they were also down double digits in the 2H there. The fact the Commies come in having not suffered an ATS loss in their L7 games (6-0-1) has obviously played a significant role in this line being shorter than it should. I’d pump the brakes on calling Vandy “competitive.” Tennessee shot poorly vs. Kentucky (35.3 FG%) with leading scorer Springer finishing with only four points. They also were outworked on the glass with Josiah-Jordan James sitting for a second straight game. Whether or not James returns, I expect the Volunteers to improve in all areas tonight. Not only did they shoot well in the first game vs. Vandy, they scored 93 against South Carolina (with James sitting) last Wednesday. Meanwhile, I can’t see Vandy shooting 10 of 23 from 3-point range again, like they did vs. Bama. I know this game is in Nashville, but the line shouldn’t be 15 points off from where it was when the teams played in Knoxville. 10* Tennessee |
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02-23-21 | Kansas v. Texas -2 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
8* Texas (9:00 ET): This is a critical game for #14 Texas. While there’s no doubt that they’re heading to the NCAA Tournament, the Longhorns are off a loss here at home (84-82 to West Virginia) and only 2-4 SU their last six games overall. They’re also just 1-7 ATS L8 and now they welcome in #17 Kansas, who just made a big move up the latest rankings. The Jayhawks are on a 5-0 SU/ATS run and coming off a wire to wire victory over Texas Tech. But seeing as what happened the last time these teams played (Texas won by 25 in Lawrence), I’ve got no hesitation about laying the short number here. While they led wire to wire Saturday, KU did allow a Texas Tech team that hadn’t played in 10 days to cut the lead down to three in the final minute. Looking at the 5-game win streak, it’s not all that impressive when you consider three of the wins were at the expense of Iowa State and Kansas State, the bottom two teams in the Big 12. Certainly nothing was impressive when the Jayhawks hosted Texas on January 2nd as they were handed their worst home loss ever under HC Bill Self. Don’t forget this team had fallen out of the rankings prior to this winning run. Texas led WVU by as many as 19 early in the second half, so that’s a game they clearly should have won. They wilted late and the end result was their fourth loss in Austin in the last eight games. All four were against ranked teams, but the Longhorns need to be better at home. They should certainly be confident here after what they did to Kansas the last time and a win would give the program’s 1st ever season-sweep of the Jayhawks. I think Shaka Smart’s team delivers. 8* Texas |
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02-23-21 | Oklahoma -10 v. Kansas State | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): While I may not think that #7 Oklahoma is as good as its ranking, they shouldn’t have much trouble with Kansas State Tuesday night. I say that based on a number of factors, the most obvious being a 76-50 win over the Wildcats last month. That thrashing in Norman actually snapped an 0-5 ATS run against K-State, but let’s not sugarcoat how UGLY things have been in Manhattan this season. The Wildcats are just 6-18 SU, including 2-13 in Big 12 play. Now Kansas State did defeat TCU on the road Saturday, 62-54 as a seven-point underdog. But that was their first win in 2021, snapping a 13-game losing streak. They trailed by five late, but a rare strong closing effort got them the ‘W’. But don’t expect any kind of “carryover” effect to tonight. The Wildcats have yet to win a single Big 12 home game this season and they are 3-11 ATS overall in the “Little Apple.” They are 0-2 ATS this season when trying to avenge a 20+ point loss. Oklahoma won at Iowa State on Saturday, it’s eight victory in the last nine games. While it was a 66-56 final in Ames, the Sooners could not cover as 12-point favorites. But they led at one point by 21, so I’d call it a dominant effort. So too was the first meeting with Kansas State as OU allowed just 36.1% shooting, including 3 of 15 from three-point range. Look for more of the same this go around as the Sooners make it B2B double digit victories. 8* Oklahoma |
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02-23-21 | Pistons v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): If the Magic are favored, then you know the competition has got to be pretty weak. Sure enough, they are hosting the Pistons tonight. Detroit is the last place team in the Eastern Conference, having dropped three straight to fall to 8-22 SU on the year. Meanwhile, Orlando is actually playing well of late with three straight wins getting them within a game of the top 10. Remember, the new playoff format for this year has the teams that finish 7th-10th in the conference involved in a play-in scenario. Wouldn’t you know that Orlando’s most recent win came at the expense of Detroit? It was 105-96 here Sunday night as the Magic also covered as 3.5-point chalk. That followed upset victories over New York and Golden State, both of which came here at home. The Magic have been battling injuries all season long and thus have been a shell of the team that made the playoffs as an 8-seed last year. But both Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier have been on fire recently. Vucevic went for 37-12 on Sunday after a triple double against Golden State. Fournier is averaging 25.3 points in the L3 games. An injury to starting point guard Delon Wright (out two weeks) has seemingly made things go from bad to worse in the Motor City. Not that the Pistons were all that great with Wright in the lineup, but the offense has REALLY struggled since he went down. It’s been B2B games under 100 points, which is just terrible in today’s NBA and it’s tough to expect much here from a team that’s just 2-14 SU on the road and playing five rookies. 10* Orlando |
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02-23-21 | Georgia Tech +2 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 69-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
10* Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): Similar to what I predicted would happen with Missouri, #17 Virginia Tech is a team that should start to tumble down the rankings. It’s been 17 days since the Hokies last played a game. Back on Feb 6th, they were able to squeak by a very undermanned Miami team 80-76 in overtime, but did not cover the spread. It will be interesting to see how they now respond from such a long layoff. Georgia Tech is no slouch and just won by 27 at Miami, obviously a margin far greater than what Va Tech won by there. While Va Tech has been on hiatus, Georgia Tech has played four games. They’ve covered the last three, beating Pitt and losing by only two at Clemson. The Yellow Jackets also hold a win over Florida State, who is arguably the best team in the entire ACC this season. The 87-60 win at Miami was the program’s largest road win ever in ACC play and they led 48-18 at halftime. This is an experienced team for HC Josh Pastner with four players that have 1,000+ career points. Only one other team in the country can claim that. GT is desperate to end a decade long NCAA Tourney drought. Even before the three straight postponements, Va Tech had been without second leading scorer Tyrece Radford. So that’s something else they’ve got to overcome. This is a team that would barely make my Top 40, let alone Top 25. They’ve had good fortune in going 6-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less. One game that was NOT close was LY’s visit down to Atlanta, which the Hokies lost 76-57. It’s telling that the #16 team in the country is such a short favorite at home vs. an unranked foe. Take the points. 10* Georgia Tech |
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02-22-21 | Hornets +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 110-132 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): Saturday saw the Jazz suffer what was just their second defeat since January 6th as they went down at the hands of the Clippers, 116-112. No shame there, especially since it was the second of back to back road games against the Clips. As I’ve said before, Utah’s straight up record (24-6) should not be that surprising when you consider that they’ve gone off as the betting favorite in 28 of those 30 games. It is very impressive that they are 19-3 ATS L22 games, but you have to figure that some of these larger pointspreads are going to start to “catch up with them.” Tonight looks like one of those nights to me. Charlotte was pegged to finish at the bottom of the Eastern Conference by most, but they’ve been surprisingly competitive, going 14-15 straight up. That’s good enough for 8th place in the standings right now and considering just how weak the East seems to be, the Hornets have a legit shot at making the playoffs this year or at least the play-in round. Saturday saw them beat Golden State 102-100 as they took advantage of Draymond Green foolishly “losing his cool” in the final minute. The Jazz have not been DD favorites all that often during this incredible ATS run. It is obviously very difficult to continue winning by large margins in this league. They haven’t dropped B2B games SU in over a month and don’t figure to lose here, but the spread seems too high. Charlotte is very much an average team, not a bad one, and they have been a DD dog only three times all season. They are 2-1 ATS in those games w/ the one non-cover coming in the second night of a back to back. After playing the Clippers twice and having an upcoming game vs. the Lakers on Wednesday, this is a “sandwich spot” for the Jazz. 10* Charlotte |
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02-22-21 | William & Mary v. Elon -3.5 | Top | 54-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
10* Elon (7:00 ET): Elon is near the bottom of the CAA standings, however, they’ll enter tonight’s game with William & Mary pretty confident. It was just 48 hours ago that they blew out the Tribe, 75-54 as a 2.5-point dog. That was on the road as well. Led by Darius Buford’s career-high 27 points, the Phoenix jumped out to a massive 44-23 halftime advantage and never looked back. W&M leading scorer Luke Loewe finished with only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. While I do not think it will be THAT easy for Elon this time around, expect them to get the job done at home tonight. Saturday was their second win in a row as they won at College of Charleston (as an eight-point dog) 66-55 on Valentine’s Day. Tonight will be just the SECOND home game for the Phoenix since the New Year! They have not won at home since December 16th against Campbell, but that’s a little misleading as they’ve played only two home games since then. I am expecting them to be VERY motivated tonight as they now close out the regular season with three consecutive home games. William & Mary is 8-2 ATS on the road this season, including three outright upsets in their last three tries. But with four of the Tribe’s six victories this year coming by five points or less, they easily could have a worse record. Two of their wins have come by exactly one point. This team was projected to finish last in the Colonial back in the preseason poll and I haven’t even mentioned yet that Saturday was their first time on the court in nearly a month. It showed and I don’t think they can turn things around in 48 hours against the same opponent. 10* Elon |
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02-22-21 | Morehead State v. SIU-Edwardsville +11 | Top | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
8* SIU Edwardsville (6:00 ET): SIU Edwardsville hasn’t had much to cheer about this season, but the Cougars actually have some reasons for optimism Monday despite being a double digit dog at home. First off, they’ve had Morehead State’s number of late, at least at the betting window where they’ve covered seven of the last eight head to head meetings. They won outright the first time they played this season, 69-65 (as a 5-pt road dog) back on December 18th. Looking at the line for this rematch, it just doesn’t make sense when compared to the number (and result!) of that first encounter. Now things quickly went downhill for SIU Edwardsville after that upset win three months ago. Their season was essentially paused for the next month with eight straight postponements. Since returning to the court, they are just 5-10 and the last four games, all double digit losses, have been ugly. But three of those came on the road. The first meeting with Morehead State was as good as the Cougars have looked all season. I think that’s significant. Also significant is the fact this is Morehead State’s fourth consecutive road game. They are coming off a 10-point win at Tenn-Martin, which is the Eagles’ 10th win in the last 11 games overall. Morehead State shot 56% Saturday, but only 35% in the first game vs. SIU Edwardsville. Make no mistake about it, recent form has “jacked up” this line. But I just can’t see why a team would be getting only five on the road, win outright, then be getting double digits at home. It’s a great value on the home dog here, so “hold your nose” and take the points. 8* SIU Edwardsville |
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02-21-21 | Celtics -2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
10* Boston (3:30 ET): There’s been a lot of discourse on why the Celtics are only 15-14 SU this year. Personally, I don’t think there’s much reason to worry as they are still 4th in the Eastern Conference. They won Friday night over Atlanta, 121-109, avenging a loss two nights prior and now they look to make it three wins in the last four games. The Pelicans have more reason to be concerned with where they’re at as B2B losses have them down in 12th in Western Conference. They are just atrocious at the defensive end (29th in efficiency). New Orleans has lost five of six overall and allowed at least 123 points in all five defeats. The most recent came at the hands of Phoenix Friday night as they let the Suns shoot 58% on the way to 132 points. It was the third time in those last six games that the Pelicans’ opponent shot 58% or better from the floor. That’s really hideous. Phoenix made 22 of its 39 three-point attempts, which is a shocking percentage and it certainly didn’t help that NO scored only 12 points in the fourth, a season-low for any quarter this season. Boston actually led Atlanta by as many as 27 Friday night, so it was a pretty dominant effort. They shot 55.6% from the floor, a season-best, so they’ve got to be salivating a bit at the prospect of facing this Pelicans team. Kemba Walker, who sat out the game the Celtics lost to the Hawks, came back to score a season-high 28 on Friday. New Orleans is just 2-5 SU/ATS in games where the total is 230 or higher. 10* Boston |
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02-21-21 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
9* St. Bonaventure (3:30 ET): After turning in a perfect 7-0 record in the month of January, the Bonnies have dropped two of three games here in February. You might recall that their 70-59 loss to Saint Louis on 2/6 was a 10* Game of the Week winner for me. After quickly bouncing back w/ an 86-73 win over LaSalle, the Bonnies lost again - by only three points - at VCU two Fridays ago. They haven’t taken the court in nine days as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. George Mason was postponed due to weather. This will be Davidson’s first “real’ game since January 24th vs. UMass. The Wildcats have been dealing with COVID-19 and as a result have played just one time in February. It was 48 hours ago against Southern Virginia, a non D-I team, and you can guess how that one went (Davidson won 101-51). While it was the Wildcats’ fifth straight victory, look at the teams they beat. In addition to a non D-I team, they’ve faced UMass, Fordham, LaSalle and St. Joe’s. That’s the three worst teams (UMass excluded) in the conference. St. Bonaventure certainly won’t be lacking for motivation on Sunday as they are 1-7 SU/ATS the L8 meetings (0-4 L4) with Davidson and haven’t beaten them in regulation since 2016. I know Davidson is perfect (3-0) ATS as an underdog in 2020-21, but the Bonnies are 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 15.7 PPG. They also haven’t dropped B2B games this season. The long layoff between conference games definitely hurts Davidson here. 9* St. Bonaventure |
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02-20-21 | Wizards v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): How are the Blazers doing it? Despite missing their second and third best players (McCollum, Nurkic), they have won six straight to get to fourth in Western Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread in all six games as well! They’ve still got the best player (Damian Lillard) and he and the rest of the team should have little difficulty scoring tonight on a Washington team that is as bad as any defensively in this league. The Wizards give up 119.5 PPG, which is why they are just 9-17 SU overall. Now the Wiz have won three in a row. But all those wins - over Boston, Houston and Denver - did come at home. I see no reason why they should be getting this much respect, on the road, against one of the hottest teams in the league. It was earlier this month that the Trail Blazers came to the Nation’s Capital and handed the Wizards a 132-121 defeat. Since then, the Blazers are 7-1 SU and ATS. Washington shot 55% in that first meeting (and still lost), a number they almost certainly will NOT match tonight. Washington has scored 130+ in B2B games and used a huge second quarter to overcome an early 17-point deficit against Denver. But their poor defense cannot be ignored. Ironically, a poor defensive efficiency rating is the lone issue I can identify with the Blazers, but the Wizards are one of the few teams lower than them in that regard. Lillard scored 43 in the win over New Orleans Wednesday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when on a 3-game win streak. 8* Portland |
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02-20-21 | DePaul +11 v. St. John's | Top | 88-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
8* DePaul (7:30 ET): So DePaul is REALLY having a rough go of it lately. The Blue Demons have been without the services of their two top scorers and as a result have won just once over the last month. They’ve lost five straight, none of those coming by fewer than seven points. But they did compete hard against Seton Hall on Wednesday, easily covering the 14-point spread. They actually led outright, 46-42, in the second half before wilting late. They may be getting back one, or both, of the two leading scorers today. Regardless, I am taking the points in this one. St. John’s is a hot team right now as they’ve won seven of eight, the lone defeat coming by three points at Butler. However, it is notable that I faded the Red Storm in their lone defeat. In the analysis, I pointed out that this is not a good team defensively. They are giving up 76.7 PPG and that makes it difficult to cover the spread when you’re favored by this many points. Interestingly enough, this game marks the first time all year that the Johnnies are being asked to lay more than three points to a Big East opponent! They were only one-point favorites when they visited DePaul late last month. Now they did win that game 81-68, thanks to a big 1st half and some dreadful DePaul shooting. I think it’s worth mentioning that the Red Storm are just 8-19 ATS their L27 games when favored by 9 to 12.5 points at home. I’d obviously love it if DePaul could get back either Moore or Freeman-Liberty, but I think their defense can keep them in this one. The Blue Demons have held eight of their last nine opponents under 70 points (St. John’s the exception) and this will be their best offensive game in awhile. 8* DePaul |
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02-20-21 | Oral Roberts v. South Dakota -3 | Top | 84-86 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* South Dakota (4:00 ET): South Dakota has hit a recent downturn, losing three straight including two when favored at North Dakota last weekend. The losing streak has taken the Coyotes out of first place in the Summit League. They were previously 9-0 SU in conference play. They’re still tied for the most conference wins, but are now one-half game back of surging rival South Dakota State, who is 7-2 SU. I think it’s important to note that all three losses for the Coyotes came on the road. They’re back in Vermillion Saturday, hosting Oral Roberts in a key set of games. I’ll lay the short number here. Oral Roberts split with South Dakota State last weekend. They scored 103 in the win, but gave up 95 in the loss. Expect a high-scoring game today as the last 14 meetings between these teams have all gone Over! However, South Dakota does have a big edge defensively as they’re giving up just 63.7 PPG at home, a big reason they are 5-1 SU here. Oral Roberts is giving up more than 80 PPG on the road. They allowed an average of 90.5 PPG in the two games last week vs. South Dakota State. This is a problem facing a South Dakota team that topped 90 in each of its last two home games. South Dakota has played 8 of its last 10 games on the road. They’ll close out the regular season with four straight at home, so I like their chances of winning the conference. When favored at home this season, the Coyotes are winning by an average of more than 25 PPG! So this looks to be a really discounted price here. They scored 57 points in the second half of their last game and I say they “score at will” here. 10* South Dakota |
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02-20-21 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse -2.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (2:00 ET): Notre Dame comes in red hot here, as they’re 5-0 ATS L5 games. They’ve won four of those five games straight up w/ the only loss coming by two at Georgia Tech. But the ACC isn’t really all that strong this season and the teams that the Fighting Irish have been beating generally reside near the bottom of the standings. In fact, other than Duke (who is widely overrated), the Irish’s three other recent victories have come against teams in the bottom five in the conference. Syracuse has also won two straight vs. bottom tier ACC teams, beating NC State 77-68 and Boston College 75-67 last week. But the Orange’s 12-6 SU record is a lot better than Notre Dame’s 9-10 SU and I’m a little perplexed as to why this number would be so low at home. I’ve got the ‘Cuse rated as the better team and they’ve gone an impressive 10-1 SU this season at the Carrier Dome, including a dominant win over Top 25 Virginia Tech. They’re outscoring visitors by an average of 12.7 points per game. Syracuse is currently just one game back of the top four in the ACC, which would give them a double bye for the conference tournament. So it’s a big game for them today. Looking at the remaining schedule, they absolutely can win out. The Orange do an excellent job at defending the three-point line, especially at home where they allow opponents to shoot just 28% from behind the arc. That’s critical when facing Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank only 142nd nationally in defensive efficiency, which is a problem. 8* Syracuse |
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02-19-21 | Tarleton St +1.5 v. Dixie State | Top | 77-59 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
10* Tarleton State (9:00 ET): This is a battle of squads wrapping up their first regular season in Division I. The WAC, a real “rogue’s gallery” of a conference, welcomed both schools for 2020-21 and as you might have guessed, it hasn’t gone great for either Tarleton State or Dixie State. The former is 6-8 SU while the latter has gone 7-10 SU after an upset of Utah Valley State (as 11-point underdogs) last Saturday. Tarleton State has played only two games in February (because of COVID) and both were against non-DI opponents that they easily defeated by a combined score of 209-80. Prior to manhandling overmatched McMurry and SW Adventist, Tarleton State did the same thing that Dixie State just did. That being split with Utah Valley State. It was the same thing with an outright win in the second game preceded by a DD loss in the first. So the Texans actually come into this game riding a three-game win streak. Now all but one of their victories this year have been versus non-DI teams. But, believe it or not, my power ratings say they should be about a 5-point road favorite here. That’s a major difference from the actual spread. History could be made here if Dixie State closes as a favorite. It would be the Trailblazers’ first time ever being favored vs. a D-I opponent. Now similarly, Tarleton State has never been favored in such a game. But they’ve had more time to prepare for this game (10 days) and should be more than ready. I know it seems “risky” taking a “bad” team, but Tarleton State is the much better side here and the oddsmakers aren’t accounting for that. 10* Tarleton State |
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02-19-21 | Warriors -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 120-124 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Golden State (7:05 ET): Well, here we go again. Golden State is coming off B2B wins. This is a situation where they are 0-6 this season, both straight up and against the spread. On the bright side, the Warriors haven’t lost three in a row at any point this season either. They are now 16-13 overall and in 7th place in the Western Conference. They’ve won four of five, the only loss coming to Brooklyn last Saturday. At some point, you have to figure the Dubs are going to break through and deliver that elusive three-game win streak. I believe that time is tonight as they face a lowly Magic team they beat last week. Golden State did not cover last week against Orlando as they were nine-point favorites in what turned out to be a 111-105 victory. Steph Curry made 10 three-pointers in that game and it was really just one bad quarter that cost the Warriors the cover that day (they were outscored 36-18 in the second). Curry did not have a good shooting night against Miami on Wednesday, but the team was still able to rally from a 19-point deficit to win 120-112 in overtime. That followed a 31-point win over Cleveland. I realize that the Warriors are a bit short-handed right now and Orlando is healthier than they were last week. But the spread is short and Dubs are due. Orlando is off a rare win (107-89 against the Knicks), but has not won two straight since a couple victories over Cleveland back in early January. They are just 5-16 SU since and have the third worst point differential in the NBA this season. The spread is shorter than it was last week and it’s not like Orlando has any kind of strong home court advantage. They are losing by an average of 10.2 PPG as a home underdog. 10* Golden State |
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02-18-21 | Rutgers +9.5 v. Michigan | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
8* Rutgers (9:00 ET): After a three-week hiatus, #3 Michigan was successful in its return to the court Sunday. They downed #21 Wisconsin 67-59, however you shouldn’t be fooled by that score as the Wolverines trailed by 12 at halftime. Given the long layoff, I suppose a slow start by the Maize and Blue shouldn’t have been all that surprising. And their performance in the second half was definitely impressive. But I simply want no part of them laying this many points to a “sneaky” Rutgers team that could use a “signature” win to strengthen its own NCAA Tournament resume. Take the points here. Rutgers’ only loss in its last six games was at Iowa last Wednesday. They shot very poorly from the 3-point range (6 of 28) and attempted only six free throws in the game. Obviously, 66 points will almost never “cut it” in Iowa City. However, the Scarlet Knights did bounce back over the weekend with a 64-50 win against Northwestern. That kind of effort at the defensive end will almost ALWAYS “get it done.” Rutgers comes into tonight ranked #14 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game so far this season. Given they were “only” +6.5 at Iowa (who I think is a little better than Michigan), I’m surprised this line opened so high. Rutgers has NEVER beaten Michigan in 13 all-time tries. But they’ve played them tough in each of the L3 seasons. This is the only time they’re scheduled to meet in 2021. The Wolverines have obviously been impressive and can make a claim to be the best team in the country, besides Gonzaga and Baylor. But they’ve still only played one game in three weeks and it saw them start slow. Rutgers has held its last five opponents to a field goal percentage of 37.5. 8* Rutgers |
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02-18-21 | Arizona v. UCLA -1.5 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* UCLA (9:00 ET): Because they’ve failed to cover in seven straight contests, we are getting a discounted price on the Bruins tonight. I’ll bite. Mick Cronin’s team was able to win Saturday, 64-61 over Washington, thanks to a career-high 32 points from Johnny Juzang. With the number being so short here, the pointspread is basically a non-factor against an Arizona team that has lost four of its last six games and at this point should be considered a “long-shot” to make the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is a perfect 9-0 SU at home this season, not to mention 4-0 SU/ATS the L3 seasons vs. the Wildcats, so I’m on the favorites. You’ve got to remember that UCLA got off to a 8-0 start in Pac 12 play. Two of their five losses this year were to Ohio State and San Diego State (both ranked) and another by just a single point (at Stanford). They’ve already beaten Arizona once, 81-76 as four-point underdogs on Tucson back on January 9th. Because of the win over Washington on Saturday, the Bruins are probably the only team in the Pac 12 that can catch USC and they host the Trojans in the regular season finale. Arizona lost at home to Oregon on Saturday, 63-61 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’ve also lost their last two road games. HC Sean Miller called his team’s defense “horrible” after the 1st loss to UCLA and I’d have to concur as they’ve allowed 80+ points five times in conference play. This is a team that gets most of its offensive production from freshman and at the free throw line, not exactly a winning combination on the road. UCLA has won its nine home games by an average of 14.1 PPG. This looks like a bargain. 10* UCLA |
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02-17-21 | Utah State v. Boise State -1.5 | Top | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
8* Boise State (9:00 ET): I can’t see the Broncos losing again here, especially at home. They come into tonight’s important Mountain West clash with Utah State having gone just 3-3 SU their last six games. This after starting the season 12-1 SU with the only loss coming to Houston, a legit top ten team, in the season opener. BSU swept a pair of home games with UNLV last weekend and it’s developing into a VERY tight four team race atop the MWC. All of Boise’s losses this year have been on the road. These teams are basically tied for first in the Mountain West, though technically Utah State is ahead by percentage points with an 11-2 SU conference record while Boise State is 12-3. Lurking right behind is Colorado State (who BSU split with in Fort Collins) at 11-3. But then you’ve got perhaps the best team, San Diego State, who is ranked #25 in the country despite being in fourth place in the conference! Utah State swept San Diego State and split with Colorado State, but the key is all four of those games were at home. Tonight marks the fourth consecutive road game for USU. They’ll also play here Friday. However, the big key is the Aggies haven’t played in 13 days due to COVID. Three straight games were postponed. So they are out of “rhythm” heading into this critical clash. Boise State is not only 8-0 SU at home, they are allowing just 58.5 PPG and winning by more than 17 points per game. I think it’s a steal that we are able to get them at such a cheap price Wednesday night. 8* Boise State |
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02-17-21 | Valparaiso +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 52-54 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (8:00 ET): #23 Loyola Chicago was a big winner for me on Saturday as they rode a huge second half to an 81-54 blowout of Drake. But the Ramblers weren’t able to sweep the weekend series, losing Sunday in overtime by a score of 51-50. While they now have to be more concerned with keeping Drake (1 GB) “at arms’ length” in the race for the regular season Missouri Valley crown, this is a classic letdown spot for Loyola and they are laying a HUGE number against Valparaiso. I’m taking the points. Now the fact Loyola only allowed 105 points in two games over the weekend, one of which went to overtime, has to be a bit scary for Valpo here. Especially since they could only score 39 in the first meeting with the Ramblers, which was at home last month. As you could probably ascertain, it was a dreadful shooting game for Valpo, who was held to 30.6% overall and 3 of 20 from 3-pt range. You’ve gotta figure they’re going to shoot better tonight. Their FG% is at 44.6 L5 games. The Crusaders are off a loss here, 74-60 at Northern Iowa Sunday. While I don’t think for a second that they are likely to pull the outright upset tonight, this is a ton of points they’re getting and there’s been only one other time besides the first Loyola game that Valpo lost by more than 20 points. Last year’s three meetings with Loyola were decided by a total of SIX points. The Ramblers are 1-5 ATS their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points, including 0-2 this season. 8* Valparaiso |
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02-16-21 | Loyola Marymount -3.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Loyola Marymount (9:00 ET): This is the second meeting of the season for these WCC rivals. Santa Clara pulled the upset the first time, winning 72-69 as 4.5-point road underdogs. That game took place on January 23rd and the Broncos haven’t played since. Their last six games have been postponed due to COVID and two of those were going to be against #1 Gonzaga. Loyola Marymount has also had some postponements, but they’ve gotten in two games since the loss to Santa Clara. They won both, by 25 at Portland and then by four at home against Pacific over the weekend. I’m taking them in the rematch. LMU closed Saturday’s game vs. Pacific on a massive 31-13 run, enabling them to pick up the victory. They shot a blistering 55.3% from the field, including 11 of 21 from three-point range. The Lions were also able to “double up” the Tigers in FT attempts for the game. Maybe they won’t shoot that well again tonight, but they probably don’t have to when you consider Santa Clara is averaging only 65.6 PPG and that number actually DROPS here at home. LMU is averaging 69.8 PPG on the season. There has been only one time all year that Loyola Marymount has lost as a favorite and it was the first meeting with Santa Clara. The Lions didn’t shoot well that night, but this time it figures to be Santa Clara that struggles offensively due to the long layoff. Loyola Marymount could easily be on a 5-game win streak right now as both losses they’ve suffered during that stretch were by four points or less. They are 5-1 ATS their L6 as a road favorite. The road team has covered seven straight times in this WCC rivalry. 10* Loyola Marymount |
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02-16-21 | Michigan State +5.5 v. Purdue | Top | 65-75 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): There’s been a big change in the pointspread since the last time these teams met. Back on January 8th, MSU hosted Purdue and was a six-point favorite. They lost 55-54, but I don’t think that singular result, or even the fact it’s been a very trying season in East Lansing, justifies the massive swing we’ve got for this rematch. Purdue is off a loss as well, 71-68 at Minnesota, and has only managed to go 2-3 SU its last five games. I’m taking the points here. Now Sparty did just get clobbered at home over the weekend, losing by 30 to Iowa (88-58). That leaves them at 4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS in conference play. (Like I said earlier, it’s been a trying season). However, before that ugly loss, Tom Izzo’s team had won two in a row. Let’s be clear here that Purdue is NOT Iowa. While the Boilermakers were ranked as recently as last week, they’ve been involved in a lot of close games recently. Six of their last 11 games have been decided by five points or less, including four of the last six and each of the last three. The first meeting saw Michigan State own a 15-point halftime advantage, but they missed 11 of their last 13 field goal attempts and that’s why they lost by one point. You have to figure Izzo will have his team ready to play after being embarrassed by Iowa on Saturday. Purdue didn’t play over the weekend. The fact the Boilermakers have just one win by more than five points in their last six games looms large in my handicapping of this game. This should be a close, low-scoring battle and I give the underdogs a very good shot at winning outright. 8* Michigan State |
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02-15-21 | Cavs +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-129 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (10:05 ET): Already in a terrible way, the Cavs find themselves in the second night of a back to back against old nemesis Golden State. Of course, things are a lot different now than they were when LeBron James was here. Going back to the 2017 Finals, Cleveland has lost 14 of 15 to the Warriors including an 0-9 SU record since James left. They are just 2-7 ATS in those nine losses. However, this isn’t the same Warriors team either (compared to 2017). I actually think this spread is quite inflated. Saturday night saw a troubling pattern continue for the Warriors. For the sixth time this season, they were coming off B2B wins. And for the sixth time they failed to win a third straight game. The Dubs are now 0-6 ATS when off B2B wins this season, after falling to the Nets 134-117 here at home Saturday night. Now they also have yet to suffer three consecutive losses this season, but the point is that Golden State is decidedly mediocre. They’ve actually only been favored in 9 of their 27 games, a far cry from how they used to be priced in their “championship years.” Now Cleveland is obviously not Brooklyn and no longer is Golden State off B2B wins. But I still view this spread as being a product of the perception of Cleveland and the situation they find themselves in. Seven straight losses doesn’t help that perception, but that’s okay as this is a clear chance to “fade the public.” The fact the Cavs are also 1-9 ATS L10 also has inflated the number. I just don’t think they’re quite *THAT* bad and will take the points. 8* Cleveland |
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02-15-21 | Washington +7.5 v. Washington State | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:00 ET): Washington is pretty bad (they are 3-16 SU!), but I actually don’t think Washington State is all that much better. When the Apple Cup rivals met two weeks ago, the Huskies were actually slight favorites. Now they lost that game by 15 points and now they’re on the road, but still I think the line is too high for this rematch. The Huskies played UCLA tough over the weekend, losing by just three (at home) while Wazzu was beaten by 11 (also at home) by USC. Take the points here. Washington never actually led against UCLA on Saturday, but did show a lot of resolve by battling back from an early double-digit deficit to tie the game in the final minutes. They did so despite not even shooting the ball that well (36.2% overall) while UCLA made not only 47.1% overall, but 50% from three-point range. I know that the Huskies are winless on the road this season (0-10!), but this might be the best chance to pick up a road win all season. My power ratings say the spread should be no higher than +5. Washington State actually upset UCLA here in Pullman last Thursday. But they could not match the hot shooting from that game in the loss to USC. The Cougars have lost 8 of 11 overall and while all three wins have come in the last five games, tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been favored in over a month. Leading scorer Isaac Bonton had to be helped off the floor at the end of the game Saturday (ankle) and he’s not the only player questionable for this game (Jakimovski). 8* Washington |
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02-14-21 | Grizzlies -1 v. Kings | Top | 124-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
8* Memphis (10:05 ET): My 10* Game of the Week in the NBA faded Sacramento, who I felt was due for a downturn. Sure enough, they lost that game 119-111 (to Philadelphia) and have now dropped two in a row at home after losing 123-112 to lowly Orlando on Friday night. Before losing B2B games, the Kings had won seven of eight (and gone 8-0 ATS), which I viewed as somewhat improbable given they rank dead last in defensive efficiency (meaning no team gives up more points per possession) and they are pretty clearly a bottom three team in the Western Conference. Memphis has not had much to cheer about recently as they’ve dropped five of six - both SU and ATS. This downturn came on the heels of their own somewhat improbable run as they’d won seven in a row from January 8th to February 1st, also going 6-0-1 ATS. When I woke up early Saturday morning, I had to do a “double-take” when I saw the Grizzlies’ final score against the Lakers. They lost 115-105, which isn’t that surprising on the surface, but consider they started that game on a 22-2 run! When I saw that score prior to falling asleep, I (foolishly?) assumed the Grizz were on their way to a nice victory. Now Memphis will be short-handed tonight (just 9 players available), but that didn’t stop them from racing out to the huge lead against the Lakers, whom they held to 6 of 30 from three-point range. Sacramento could also be missing a key player - PG D’Aaron Fox - who missed the Orlando game. Marvin Bagley III also missed that game and is also listed as questionable. In the end, I simply view Memphis as the superior team here and due for a better result after the meltdown vs. the Lakers. Sacramento is 0-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 8* Memphis |
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02-14-21 | Blazers v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Dallas (7:35 ET): I used the Mavs on Friday when they beat the Pelicans 143-130. It was their fourth straight win following a six-game losing streak. In my analysis, I made clear that I expect the Mavs to start moving up the Western Conference standings and finish in the top six. They had the most efficient offense in the league last season and were actually better than their record. That they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games has them undervalued at home on Sunday vs. Portland. The Blazers also come into tonight’s game on a win streak. They’ve won three straight and are now 5th in the West. But I expect these teams to be “switching positions” by season’s end. All three recent Blazers’ victories have been at home and two were against Orlando and Cleveland. My biggest concern with this team is not that they are without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for an indefinite period of time, but rather the fact they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. There’s been some recent improvement on that end of the floor, but that’s largely owed to the teams they were facing. Dallas just dropped a season-high in points its last time out with Luka Doncic scoring a career-high 46 and Kristaps Porzingis scoring a season-best 36. Now, will things go that easily again? Probably not. But I do think the Mavs are going to score a lot in this game. While their three wins before beating the Pelicans were by a combined eight points, the Mavs are due to go on a nice ATS run and I’ll definitely lay the points here. 10* Dallas |
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02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps have been a bad matchup for Minnesota in the past, going 9-2 SU the L11 meetings including a perfect 4-0 the L4 here in College Park. They won 63-49 last month in Minneapolis, a result that was owed to an edge in rebounding and poor Minnesota shooting. The Golden Gophers connected on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts for the game and were 5 of 23 from three-point range. I’m a little surprised that this number opened so short. I’ll lay the points. Now Minnesota is off a 71-68 win over #24 Purdue. Despite the Boilermakers being ranked, oddsmakers did NOT consider that to be an upset as the Golden Gophers came in as 2.5-point favorites. Still, the Gophers did need to rally in the final two minutes as they were down five. They outscored Purdue 12-4 over the final 2:10 with leading scorer Marcus Carr providing the difference with eight (points) of his own. While 3-0 ATS its last 3 games, it must be mentioned that Minnesota is 0-6 SU on the road this season. The individual results have been every bit as ugly as the record for Minnesota on the road. They’ve lost the six games by an average of 17.3 PPG, allowing opponents to shoot 52.8% from the floor while they are shooting just 34.1% themselves. They’ve covered just one spread on the road this season and that was at Rutgers when they were getting 5.5 in a 76-72 loss. Maryland shoots the ball better than Minnesota and has a higher defensive efficiency rating. They also hold victories over Illinois and Wisconsin (both on the road!) 10* Maryland |
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02-14-21 | UCF +5.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
8* Central Florida (1:00 ET): Cincinnati’s season was halted for nearly a month. Since returning to the court (on 2/4), the Bearcats are 3-0. However, those three wins have come by a COMBINED eight points and none were by more than three. As you probably guessed, all three games were not decided until the final minute. The most recent escape came on Friday against Temple as a few late free throws ensured a 71-69 victory (but not a cover). I think the Bearcats are due to lose and will take the points here. Central Florida is also off a narrow win on Friday as they beat Tulane 53-49. The Golden Knights held the Green Wave to just 19 points after halftime, which was the key to victory. There haven’t been too many victories this season in Orlando as UCF is just 3-9 SU its L12 games. But they’ve won two of the last three and the lone loss was by one point (61-60) to Wichita State. The Golden Knights have allowed an average of just 56 PPG during this three-game stretch, something I like to see from an underdog. Cincinnati has not been at .500 at any point this season. They come into Sunday at 6-7 SU on the year. They had really been struggling prior to the season being put on pause and three consecutive razor-thin victories are not enough to convince me this team is anything but mediocre. The Bearcats really struggle from three-point range (28.7%) and in what promises to be a very low-scoring game, you’re going to want to take the points. UCF won the first meeting 75-70 as a 2-point dog. 8* Central Florida |
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02-13-21 | Nets v. Warriors +4 | Top | 134-117 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:35 ET): This Saturday night matchup figures to get a lot of hype as Kevin Durant faces his former team. Of course, Brooklyn is now the “super team” with Durant combining forces with Kyrie Irving and James Harden. But the results haven’t been quite as dominant as you’d expect with the Nets still only third in the Eastern Conference with a 15-12 record. They are just 6-6 SU since the Harden trade, although they did win their last game, 104-94 over Indiana Wednesday night. Golden State is just trying to get back to respectability following last season’s injury-plagued debacle. We’re probably never going to see them reach the heights of the teams that made five consecutive NBA Finals, but the Warriors have been looking better of late (two straight wins) and are now 8th in the Western Conference. After winning 114-91 in San Antonio on Tuesday, they defeated Orlando 111-105 on Thursday. It was the third straight game holding the opposition to 105 pts or less, precisely the kind of defensive effort I am looking for here. The big story (besides Durant’s return) tonight is the fact the Dubs have yet to produce a single three-game win streak this season. It’s going to happen and with them getting points at home, tonight looks to be a solid value. Durant, who has been cleared, hasn’t suited up since last Friday so he could very well be rusty in a high-profile spot. The fact the Nets are allowing 122.3 PPG on the road this season is another concern. Golden State is simply much better defensively as they allow only 108.4 PPG at home. 8* Golden State |
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02-13-21 | 76ers +1 v. Suns | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
THIS WAS AN INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! NO ACTION! |
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02-13-21 | Texas-Arlington +5.5 v. Texas State | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
10* UT Arlington (3:00 ET): These teams just met Thursday. It was Texas State coming away with a 63-56 victory as 1.5-point road favorites. Now they’re favored by more at home, which is not a surprise at all, but it certainly opens up an opportunity to take the points with a revenge-minded dog. I certainly would have expected better shooting from UT Arlington at home than the 36.8% they delivered 48 hours ago. They also missed 19 of 25 three-point attempts. It’s been a bit of a rough shooting stretch recently for the Mavericks and as a result, they’ve gone 0-5 ATS L5 games. But they’ve won three of them straight up and I’m taking the points here. UT Arlington has typically done a good job at the defensive end in league play, holding the opposition to 68 points or less in seven of the last eight games. While they’ve been an underdog prior to this, it’s never been by more than two points, at least to any Sun Belt opposition. This feels like a “buy low” spot. You’ve got to think they are about to start heating up at the offensive end as they are averaging a solid 73.9 PPG for the year. Texas State leads the Sun Belt West with an 8-3 SU record, but UT Arlington is just one back in the win column (7-6). The Bobcats have won and covered three straight despite scoring 63 or less in two of the games, so they’re playing excellent defense. But I don’t think the win Thursday necessitates a spread this high, even with the change in home court “advantage.” Texas State is just 5-3 SU at home including a couple loss to Louisiana in late January. With so many of the recent head to head meetings being close (five straight by 8 pts or less), taking the points here is a must. 10* UT Arlington |
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02-13-21 | Loyola-Chicago -4 v. Drake | Top | 81-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (12:00 ET): Here’s a matchup I’ve been DYING to see all season in the Missouri Valley. Drake has just one loss this year and it came last weekend, 74-57 at Valparaiso. The Bulldogs have since bounced back with a convincing 80-59 triumph at the expense of Northern Iowa. That improved their record to not only 19-1 SU, but also 15-3 ATS. Both marks are obviously among the very best in the country. But make no mistake about it. Drake is NOT the best team in the MVC this season. That would be their opponents on Saturday. Loyola Chicago, a name you probably recall from an epic Final Four run three years ago, leads the MVC with a 12-1 SU record. They are 17-3 SU overall and no slouch in the ATS department either at 12-5-1. The Ramblers were even more profitable prior to going 0-2 ATS vs. Evansville last week, though both games were still double digit wins at home. This is very much a Top 25 team (in the country) in my eyes and I expect them to show it Saturday. It speaks volumes that they are favored here. Loyola sports a top eight defensive efficiency rating. They are allowing only 56.2 PPG on the year, which is #1 in the entire country! Yes, this is probably the best “mid-major” in America (assuming you’ve upgraded Gonzaga from that distinction at this point). They have won 10 straight, nine of those coming by double digits. Drake had numerous close calls prior to its blowout loss at Valpo last week. This is the first time all year that they will be an underdog, but again the oddsmakers have taken a definite “position” on this matchup and so am I. 8* Loyola Chicago |
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02-12-21 | Detroit +3.5 v. Cleveland State | Top | 89-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Detroit Mercy (9:00 ET): If you’ve been regularly betting Cleveland State this season, then “my hats off to you.” The Vikings are 14-3 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the country among teams that have played at least 13 games. They lead the Horizon League, which is a shocker as they were tabbed for 7th in the preseason poll. Per KenPom they’ve had the best “luck” in the entire country as five of their wins have been by three points or less. One of them was last Saturday vs. Oakland, 80-78. The Horizon League schedule calls for B2B games every weekend against the same opponent. Cleveland State has not lost the first game of any of these “doubleheaders” all season. But what is truly remarkable about the Vikings is how they have a negative scoring differential over the course of the season, despite being 14-5 SU! That’s largely owed to a pair of blowout losses: 85-49 at Wright State on Jan 16th and 101-46 at Ohio on Dec 6th. In that loss to Ohio, CSU was on the wrong end of a historic40-0 scoring run, spanning halftime, to set a NCAA record. They missed 17 consecutive shots at one point and went nearly 15 mins in the 2nd half w/o making a single basket! Detroit is the opponent Friday (and Saturday) and the Titans come in on their own 5-game ATS win streak. They’ve also won all five straight up. While only 8-8 SU on the year, the Titans can claim something Cleveland State can’t and that’s a positive YTD scoring differential. They are 6-1 ATS in road games and are coming off a 27-point win (over Purdue-Fort Wayne). This is a double revenge game. Bottom line is Cleveland State is “due” to lose. Take the points. 10* Detroit Mercy |
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02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 130-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:35 ET): The Pelicans and Mavericks meet for the first time this season with the latter on a three-game win streak. The former had won four in a row before losing Wednesday night in Chicago, 129-116 as a 2.5-point favorite. They allowed the Bulls to hit a franchise record 25 three-pointers! While New Orleans had gone 4-0 ATS (as well as 4-0 SU) before that loss, Dallas has not been good at covering spreads (to say the least!) recently as they are just 1-10 ATS L11 games. But I still believe in the Mavs and think they are set to make a move into playoff position in the Western Conference. Despite the ATS woes, they’ve won four of their last five games straight up, including 118-117 over Atlanta Weds night as they overcame a 13-point second half deficit. Defensively, they put the clamps on the Hawks down the stretch, holding them to 9 of 22 shooting in the 4Q. The Pelicans are a team that they handled last season, winning all four times and going 3-1 ATS. The L5 games have seen the Mavs average 123.4 PPG. New Orleans, like Dallas, is near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Unlike the Mavericks, the Pelicans have shown no signs of being able to turn that around. Not only were they just scorched by the Bulls, there have been eight games this season where a Pelicans’ opponent has made at least 18 three-pointers. They gave up TWO 40-point quarters to the Bulls, who are not exactly one of the league’s premier offensive teams. The Pelicans are just 4-8 SU on the road this year. 8* Dallas |
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02-11-21 | UCLA -4 v. Washington State | Top | 73-81 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
10* UCLA (11:00 ET): UCLA just suffered its second loss in the last three games and it came in humiliating fashion at the hands of rival USC, 66-48 as 5-point dogs. It was also the fifth consecutive game the Bruins failed to cover. They also lost 73-72 at Stanford. Prior to that, they’d been 8-0 vs. the rest of the Pac 12. Reeling a bit (for the first time all season), I expect UCLA to come out strong Thursday night in Pullman. It was a 30-point win the first time they faced Washington State this year and that was less than a month ago. This number certainly appears to be a bit short. Wazzu is off four straight road games. They went 2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS and lost the last one 68-66 at Oregon State. Very different from UCLA, the Cougars’ run in Pac 12 play did NOT get off to a good start as they went just 2-7 SU the L9. I wonder just how they’ll do here after playing 8 of their last 10 games on the road. The Cougars are not a particularly good shooting team and were held below 40% in Corvallis on Saturday. Other than a win over short-handed Oregon, the Cougs have not beaten any of the top teams in the Pac 12. UCLA simply blitzed Wazzu in the first meeting, taking a 16-point halftime lead and shooting 54.1% for the game. I know Mick Cronin’s team has been playing a bit short-handed of late, but I see this as a great “buy low” opportunity. This may not be as lopsided as it ended up being in Westwood last month, but it doesn’t have to be with this short number. The Bruins are 8-1 ATS after a game where they scored 50 points or fewer. Their overall shooting is certainly set to improve. 10* UCLA |
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02-11-21 | Eastern Kentucky +12.5 v. Belmont | Top | 74-92 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
8* Eastern Kentucky (9:00 ET): I was a little shocked by this line. Now, if you’ve been following along, then you know I’ve been targeting Belmont for awhile. At 14-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, the Bruins are the ONLY team in the country (besides Gonzaga and Baylor) to be 9-0 or better in conference play. But with a poor defensive efficiency rating (171st in the country), I’ve got my doubts. They’re coming off a four-game road trip here and easily could have lost two of the games (Austin Peay, Murray State). Eastern Kentucky probably isn’t the second best team in the OVC, but they are close. The Colonels are 15-4 SU overall and 9-3 in conference play. Two of those three conference losses occurred earlier in the month (Austin Peay, Murray State) and both were at home, But they’ve since bounced back with a 78-74 win at SIU Edwardsville on Monday. It was a double-digit advantage in the second half and they withstood some hot SIU Edwardsville shooting (50% from 3-pt range). Unlike most of the OVC, Eastern Kentucky has the capability to “trade points” with Belmont. In fact, the Colonels play at the fourth fastest tempo in the entire country and average 82.6 PPG. They are 3-1 ATS as a dog this season. This is their first time facing Belmont this season. The Bruins have won 17 in a row overall and have beaten Eastern Kentucky 10 straight times. But I don’t think they’re going to win out. Might they lose outright here? Not that confident, but I will take the points as EKU is 22-8-2 ATS its L32 games overall. 8* Eastern Kentucky |
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02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1.5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
10* Mississippi (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes that Missouri, ranked #10 in the country, would be an underdog here. Of course, if you’ve been following my commentary this season, you’d already know that I feel Mizzou is among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. They barely crack my top 30 and according to KenPom, they have a top 11 “luck” rating. While the Tigers did produce arguably their most impressive win of the season, 68-65 over Alabama, I think all that does is produce an opportune time to fade. That’s what I’m doing here. Ole Miss is a top 20 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency, so they are no slouch. In their last two games, the Rebels have upset both Tennessee and Auburn, two teams that have already beaten Missouri this year. Ole Miss has actually beaten all three teams Mizzou has lost to. On January 19th, they went to Starkville and beat Miss State 64-46. Now Ole Miss did have to overcome a 14-point second half deficit to defeat Auburn in overtime. Devontae Shuler hit the GW basket with 0.2 seconds remaining. But color me impressed that the Rebels were able to win such a high-scoring game on the road. Both teams have had plenty of close calls recently with Ole Miss’ last two wins both coming by two points each and Missouri’s last three games all by five points or less, including an OT win of their own. But I once again point to the home team’s defensive capabilities as they are allowing just 59.7 PPG here in Oxford. Missouri missed 17 of its 20 three-point attempts vs. Alabama and nearly blew a 20+ point lead. The Tigers are just not an efficient team offensively (9th in the SEC) and they make just 29% of their 3PA on the road. Starter Javon Pickett may be out again as well. This is NOT an upset (though it will be considered one). 10* Mississippi |
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02-10-21 | LSU +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 94-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-10-21 | Furman +2 v. NC-Greensboro | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
8* Furman (5:00 ET): These teams just met Monday and I had Furman, who went out and delivered a convincing 68-49 win as 4-point favorites. In light of that result, I’m a little surprised the Paladins are getting points in this immediate rematch, even with the game taking place in Greensboro. As discussed in my previous analysis, UNC Greensboro had really been beating up on the “lesser” SoCon (Southern Conference) teams in building up a seven-game win streak. Meanwhile, Furman had been underachieving. This will be the first time since Dec 15th (at Alabama) that they are getting points! There was no underachieving Monday as the Paladins went out and built a double-digit halftime lead and rolled from there. What was most impressive (to me) is that they were able to win convincingly, despite not being at their offensive best. This is a team that averages an impressive 81.2 PPG for the year and they weren’t close to that Monday. They did however “tighten the screws” defensively, holding UNC Greensboro to just 29.0% shooting for the game, including 2 of 18 on three-point attempts. While you should expect UNC Greensboro to shoot better tonight at home, they are not a particularly great shooting team. In fact, the Spartans are making only 28.9% of their 3PA for the season and less than 42% of their shots overall. That was a major factor in me taking Furman in the last game and I see no reason to expect differently this evening. UNC Greensboro is only 5-4 SU at home this season, including outright losses to East Tennessee State and Wofford. Furman has four double digit scorers and is simply the better team here. 8* Furman |
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02-09-21 | 76ers -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): Sacramento is playing its best basketball of the season. They’ve won four straight, including upsets of the Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers, and seven of their last eight. They are also 8-0 ATS the L8 games. I view this as being somewhat improbable given where the Kings reside in my own power ratings, which is the bottom of the league. They are still dead last in defensive efficiency, which means no team gives up more points per possession than this one does. Tonight they host Eastern Conference leading Philadelphia and I believe the win streak comes to a crashing halt. The Sixers have been playing pretty well of late themselves. They are on a 5-1 SU/ATS run and just beat Brooklyn 124-108 on Saturday. Do I think the Sixers are better than Milwaukee? No, I don’t. But a definite case can be made that they are the East’s 2nd best team. They are 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, so that’s a massive edge there. While the Sixers sometimes struggle to score away from home (109.0 PPG), they shouldn’t here given the fact Sacramento is allowing a ghastly 120.5 PPG at home. The defense has improved for the Kings during the 8-0 ATS win streak, but the first month of the season tells me that kind of play won’t last. They’ve moved up to 7th in the Western Conference, but I don’t buy them as a potential playoff team, not even for a second. I’ve got them rated third WORST in the West, ahead of only OKC and Minnesota, who are the bottom two in the standings. Expect a slide to begin tonight. I’m laying the points with Philly as they’ve covered 10 of their previous 12 visits here. 10* Philadelphia |
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02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
10* Butler (9:00 ET): St. John’s has won six straight. They’ve covered eight in a row. Those streaks include outright wins over UConn and Villanova, who were ranked #23 and #3 respectively at the time of the upsets. The Red Storm have now won four straight on the road after prevailing at Providence Saturday. The 92-81 win was their third consecutive as a dog and the third time they went over 80 points in this win streak, although the other two occasions were against DePaul and Utah Valley State. Butler is not having its best season. The Bulldogs are just 6-10 SU on the year, although they did just snap a three-game losing skid on Saturday with a 68-58 win and cover (were -5.5) over DePaul. It was the second consecutive game that they covered as they closed +4.5 in a 70-67 loss at Marquette exactly one week ago. I took them there, noting this was now a deeper team with East Tennessee State transfer Bo Hodges being granted eligibility. Christian David also made his debut two weeks ago vs. Xavier and starter Aaron Thompson missed five games earlier in the year. Butler has a win over Creighton, so it’s not as if they are incapable of beating quality teams. They have certainly made a habit of beating St. John’s here at Hinkle Fieldhouse. They are 6-0 SU/ATS the L6 times hosting the Johnnies. Last year was a 22-point win here. This is a revenge game after Butler lost by 12 (69-57) in MSG last month. The Red Storm don’t defend as well on the road, giving up 79.9 PPG. They are due for a “slip-up.” 10* Butler |
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02-08-21 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -26.5 | Top | 54-85 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): San Jose State has improbably won three in a row, all as underdogs. For much of this season, the Spartans have been one of the absolute worst teams in the country. I should point out that the three wins came against New Mexico and Air Force, who are a combined 3-22 SU in conference play. There is no doubt that the SJSU win streak is going to come to an end tonight at San Diego State, but is this massive pointspread justified? I think so! San Diego State has won four in a row, all by at least 27 points. They swept Air Force and Wyoming and are now 13-4 SU on the season. They are trying to track down the top three teams in the MWC (Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State) and have a few games in hand. There’s a good chance the Aztecs will be on an eight-game win streak by the time they head to Boise to conclude the regular season. They’ve been off for more than a week as last week’s games vs. New Mexico were postponed, so they should be itching to get back on the court here. Making the task tougher for San Jose State here is the possibility that leading scorer Richard Washington may miss the game. Washington isn’t just the team’s leading scorer, he leads the entire MWC at 20.7 PPG. The Spartans did win without him against Air Force, but this is obviously a much taller order. Since January 22nd, San Diego State is 1st in the country in both points per game (93.5) and scoring differential (+31.5 per game). They’ve scored 87 or more in four straight games for the first time since 1971. San Jose State is among the very worst teams in the country defensively (335th in efficiency), not to mention last in the MWC in both PPG allowed and rebounding margin. 10* San Diego State |
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02-08-21 | Cavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): The Cavaliers had been surprisingly competitive for the first month of the season, but things have gone a bit “sideways” for them recently. They’ve lost five of six with the only win coming by two at home over Minnesota. They are 0-6 ATS in those six games. The last three have all been blowout losses, but two of them were against Milwaukee and the other vs. the Clippers. The news that Larry Nance Jr will miss 4-6 weeks with a broken finger isn’t good, but the spot is tonight as I’m going to take the points here in Phoenix, who is in the second night of a back to back. The Suns beat Boston last night, 100-91, which was their second straight win and fifth in the last six games. The two wins against Dallas were games they easily could have lost. Both were fourth quarter comebacks. In the first, they trailed by 15 in the second half. The second required a Devin Booker GW 3-pointer with just 1.5 seconds left. After losing in New Orleans (by 22), the Suns bounced back with a win over lowly Detroit and then came last night when they held the Celtics to just 35.5% shooting from the field. Despite the Celtics not shooting the ball well, things got close at the end with the Suns ahead by only five points with less than three minutes to go. Though Cleveland is not noted as a great offensive team, I’ll project them to shoot the ball a lot better than Boston did last night. Nance is hardly the team’s primary offensive weapon. Collin Sexton leads the team with 23.2 PPG while Andre Drummon is averaging 18.6 points and 14.2 rebounds. Jarrett Allen is shooting 67% from the field in the L10 games. 10* Cleveland |
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02-08-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Furman -3.5 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
8* Furman (5:00 ET): UNC Greensboro has won 7 straight and now leads the SoCon (Southern Conference) by percentage points over preseason favorite Wofford. Any time a team can put together a win streak of this length, you’ve got to “tip your cap.” However, in this instance, it’s hard to look past the fact the Spartans have really been beating up on the bottom of the conference. All seven victories have been at the expense of the bottom six with four of them coming against the bottom three. Now Furman has been trending in the opposite direction of late as they’ve lost three of their four games. They are 0-4 ATS as well. Two of the three losses were on the road though and the one at home was against Wofford. That was on Saturday and the Paladins really faltered down the stretch in their first home loss of the season. Leading scorer Mike Bothwell had just two points in the game and was 0 for 4 from three-point range. Furman led at the half and by 9 with just over 10 minutes to go. But Wofford outscored them 20-13 over the final six minutes to “steal” the win. Furman averages 81.9 PPG with a 49.1 FG%, so the kind of shooting we saw Saturday was uncharacteristic to say the least. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro was only tied at the half with The Citadel their last time out (Wednesday) and actually got outrebounded for the game. The Spartans also shot much better in that game than they do normally. Their season-long FG% is only 42.6% and they really struggle from three-point range (29.3%). I think this is a great spot to step in and take Furman laying a short number at home. 8* Furman |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -4 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
10* Boise State (4:00 ET): Boise State fell 74-72 Thursday night in Reno. They’ve now dropped two of three after winning 13 straight and now trail Utah State by a half-game in the race for 1st in the Mountain West. The Broncos certainly had their chances to win Thursday. They missed the potential game-winning three in the closing seconds after giving up the go-ahead basket with just seconds left. Then there’s the fact they also led at halftime. They’ve now lost five straight times at Nevada. But they get an immediate shot at revenge and I’m laying the points in this one. Both teams have been quite successful at the betting window this season. Boise State is 10-5-1 ATS. Nevada is 14-5 ATS, among the most profitable teams in the entire country. The Wolf Pack are now 4-0 ATS taking points after winning outright as 5-points dogs the other night. Boise State has been favored in every conference game so far, so a 7-4-1 ATS record there is pretty impressive. Six of their first seven MWC wins were by double digits. Then there is a fact that the Broncos are 13-3 ATS coming off a loss the last few seasons. When they were blown out at Colorado State 78-56 last Wednesday, they bounced back two days later with a dominant win of their own, 85-77. Their only other loss this season was the opener at Houston, a legit Top 10 team. From that, the Broncos responded with 31-point victory their next time out. It won’t be that easy here, but I expect them to come through with a win that’s larger than the spread. This is a team that’s allowing only 42.1% shooting for the season. Nevada won’t shoot 52.6% again. 10* Boise State |
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02-06-21 | Bulls v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 118-92 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Given what transpired last night, I’m a little shocked the Magic opened as the underdogs here. It was a much needed 123-119 win for the home team on Friday and I backed them as underdogs. They got a career-best 43 points from Nikola Vucevic, who also had 19 rebounds. It was the just the 4th 40-15 game EVER by a Magic player and the first since 2017. I’m coming right back with Magic again tonight. My read on this matchup obviously hasn’t changed in the last 24 hours, so I’m going to recycle a good bit of yday’s anaylsis. The key for me is that Chicago just shouldn’t be favored on the road. They are bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency and now 0-2 ATS in the road chalk role this season. Yesterday marked their second loss in a row and fifth in the last six games. They are now giving up 118.8 PPG on the road, just a terrible number. Only Golden State and Brooklyn allow a higher average away from home. Unlike those two teams, the Bulls don’t have the necessary firepower to overcome the defensive deficiencies. Each of the last two games have seen the Bulls fall into a double digit hole. They trailed the Knicks by 17 after just one quarter Wednesday night, a game in which they ended up shooting 6 of 36 from three-point range. Last night they were behind by 14 in the fourth quarter. So the game was not “really” as close as the final score seemed to indicate. Chicago is just 1-4 SU on the second night of a back to back. Orlando is actually 2-0 SU/ATS coming off a SU win as a dog. Look for the home team to make it two in a row Saturday night. 10* Orlando |
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02-06-21 | St Bonaventure v. St. Louis -3 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* Saint Louis (2:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the entire COUNTRY has been more adversely affected by COVID-19 than the Saint Louis Billikens. The preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10 were in the top 25 of my own power ratings when their season was paused around Christmas time. Unfortunately, the Billikens have gone 0-2 SU since returning to the court, losing outright to Dayton and La Salle over the L10 days. They’ve gotten only 10 games in all season and now must face arguably the hottest team in the A-10, St. Bonaventure, who has won seven in a row. I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on Saint Louis. While adjustments obviously needed to be made by the linesmakers in the wake of the B2B upsets, this looks like a classic “overadjustment” to me. The Billikens had just four days of practice after not playing for 33 days when they took on Dayton. Then they had a game vs. Richmond postponed just minutes before the scheduled tipoff. Wednesday’s loss at La Salle was a genuine shocker (the Billikens were favored by 12) as they struggled again from three-point range. That’s been the problem in the two games as they are shooting a woeful 7 of 32 from behind the arc. With more practice time and two games under their belt, you have to figure St. Louis’ shooting is destined to improve. They actually shot 51.8% overall against Dayton; it was just the three-point line that was the problem. Prior to the pause, this has been an excellent three-point shooting team (still 37.4% for the season). At the same time, the Bonnies aren’t going to shoot 61.4% again like they did vs George Mason (at home) last week. The A-10 leaders have been beating up on the bottom of the league while St. Louis has been out of the picture. The Bonnies’ road record could easily be 1-3 SU. 10* Saint Louis |
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02-05-21 | Seattle University -3 v. Dixie State | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-05-21 | California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
8* Cal Baptist (9:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned to see this line so high. My own power ratings suggest a much tighter spread is appropriate. The game will take place in Las Cruces, the first time NMSU has gotten to play on their home floor since COVID restrictions were lifted in the state. But home court advantage is still not enough to justify the Aggies laying so many points. They have just six games under their belt this season and only three since the New Year. They were swept last weekend at Grand Canyon. Cal Baptist is coming off a disheartening home loss to Dixie State their last time out. The Lancers were 9.5-point favorites for that one, but fell 79-75 as 9.5-point chalk. That loss snapped a 5-game win streak. The Lancers led by as many as 7 points in the second half, so it’s a game they could have won. While they’ve yet to win on the road this season (0-3), two of three losses have come by single digits. One was against USC in the season opener. Another was by only four points at Utah Valley State. They are 15-7 ATS L22 as an underdog. New Mexico State has not beaten a single D-I foe this season, so I have no unearthly idea why they’d be favored by so many points here. Their three wins have come against Western New Mexico, Benedictine (AZ) and Arizona Christian. They are 0-3 otherwise, though all those games were on the road. Still, the Aggies scored just 53 points in their last game and can’t possibly be trusted to cover a spread like this. They shot just 36.5% from the field on Saturday and were down by as many as 17. This spread simply looks to be way off. 8* Cal Baptist |
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02-05-21 | Bulls v. Magic +2 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): This has been a very frustrating season for the Magic thus far. They actually have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference and are just 4-13 SU in non-division games. This is a non-division game and they come in having lost four in a row overall and three straight at home. Injuries have been a problem with the latest being forward Aaron Gordon’s ankle, which will keep him out at least a month. The Magic are already without Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac for the rest of the season. Chicago has been a “tough out” for much of the season so far, a little surprising, but has also not played well of late. They come into tonight’s game having lost four of five. This will be the first of two in a row in Orlando for the Bulls, who are also dealing with injuries to Otto Porter and Wendell Carter (neither will play tonight). The Bulls have been “road warriors” so far this season with an 8-2 ATS record away from home, however, this will be just the second time they’ve been favored. The only other time Chicago has been favored away from home this season was 1/15 at Oklahoma City and they lost that game 127-125, in overtime. They also just lost to the Knicks, 107-103 as home favorites, Wednesday night. They fell behind by 17 after the first quarter and shot 6 of 36 from 3-point range. As bad as Orlando has looked recently, I don’t think Chicago should be laying points on the road to anyone as they are still bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a game the Magic really need to win. 10* Orlando |
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02-04-21 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Memphis (9:05 ET): These have been two of the league’s hotter teams recently. However, both are off a SU loss. The Grizzlies had their seven-game win streak come to an end Tuesday night in Indiana as they were beaten pretty emphatically, 134-116. It was the second night of a back to back where they were coming off a 31-point win in San Antonio. The Rockets had their six-game win streak end last night in Oklahoma City as they got beat 104-87. Now they are in the second night of a back to back, a situation they’ve somehow managed to be in just one other time all season. Memphis is currently tied for 5th in the Western Conference right now with a 9-7 SU record. After opening 0-5 at home, they’ve now won three straight here, beating the Nets, Sixers and Suns, which is an impressive list of teams. This is a top five team in the league in defensive efficiency and they’ve done well coming off a DD loss this season, going 3-1 ATS in that spot. As they know from Tuesday, being rested can be a significant edge when your opponent isn’t and that’s a major reason we’re backing the Grizz in this one. Houston didn’t have John Wall in the lineup last night, tonight they’ll be without Victor Oladipo. This is part of the “load management” strategy as both are still recovering from injuries. As mentioned above, the Rockets scored just 87 points last night, a far cry from the “James Harden days” and what they’d done Monday vs. Thunder (scored 136). I think it’s pretty remarkable that this is just the second time the Rockets are in the second night of a back to back this season. It’s also their third road game in four nights and fourth in the last six. They are 2-7 ATS L9 on no rest and 2-11 ATS L13 off a DD loss. 10* Memphis |
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02-04-21 | Belmont v. Eastern Illinois +14.5 | Top | 89-61 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): Yes, I’m going to fade Belmont again. This will be the third straight time as the Bruins’ unbeaten run through the OVC has come very close to ending each of their last two times out. I cashed both Austin Peay and Murray State in the last week vs. Belmont, games the Bruins easily could have lost outright. They beat Austin Peay by five and Murray State by one. Now they are laying big points to Tony Romo’s alma mater in what is their third straight road game. While you should take the points, this third OVC play in this report has the potential to be a major upset. Remember that I’ve already cashed Miami over Duke and East Carolina over Houston this week, both were double digit dogs that took the game outright. Belmont (12-0 vs OVC) has the most conference wins without a loss in the country and is certainly “due” to drop a game after the narrow escapes we’ve seen recently. They trailed at the half in each of those L2 games. Eastern Illinois ended a LONG losing streak (8 games) with a 70-61 win over SIU Edwardsville on Tuesday. Five of those eight losses came as a favorite, so the Panthers have definitely underachieved this year. They were actually 0-8 ATS in those eight SU losses! But this is the most points they’ll get all season (in conference play) and it’s at home. Talk about motivation - they’ve lost eight straight times to Belmont. But six of those were on the road. This is a team that doesn’t get blown out often. 8* Eastern Illinois |
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02-04-21 | Austin Peay +2.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 94-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Like I said in the Murray State writeup, I’m in love with this OVC card tonight! In addition to cashing Murray State against Belmont as my 10* Game of the Month on Saturday, Austin Peay also cashed a winning ticket (for me) at Belmont’s expense recently. They too played the Bruins right down to the wire, only to come up just short of ending Belmont’s unbeaten OVC run. That game, which was on Thursday, saw the Governors lose by only five points. They’ve since beaten Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville both by 15. Tonight, the Governors are at Eastern Kentucky, who is the second place team in the OVC. EKU is 14-2 overall and won nine straight. They’re also a perfect 8-0 SU at home. But shades of Morehead State (who I’m also fading tonight), the Colonials have really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. Another similarity to that Morehead State fade is that this is a revenge game. Austin Peay lost the first time, by five at home, as a 4.5-point favorite. Eastern Kentucky was actually a dog at Jacksonville State over the weekend, which should tell you what the oddsmakers really think of them. They won, but by only four points, their third win by five or less in the past six games. Based on the early line movement, it certainly appears as if Austin Peay is getting some love from sharp bettors and they’ll get my love as well considering they are 3-1 ATS as a dog. EKU is due to lose. 8* Austin Peay |
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02-04-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Morehead State | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Murray State (7:00 ET): I’m in LOVE with the Ohio Valley Conference slate tonight! All three plays in this report come from the OVC, which I’ve been paying close attention to in recent weeks. Just last Saturday, Murray State was my 10* NCAAB Game of the Month as they covered the spread vs. unbeaten (in conference play) Belmont. Just 48 hours later, the Racers shook off that one-point loss by downing SE Missouri State 77-60 on the road. While this is now their third game in less than a week, we are getting a TON of value considering Murray State was a 13-point favorite when they hosted Morehead State earlier this season. Now that first meeting is something Murray State would like to forget as they lost outright as 13-point chalk, 61-56. It was a dreadful shooting night for both teams, but what was truly remarkable is the Racers shooting just 13 of 31 on two-point attempts! Since that loss, the offense has gotten back on track. They’ve scored at least 71 in six straight games and are now 3-0 ATS in the last three. Morehead State has been a covering machine with seven straight ATS victories. They’ve also won nine in a row straight up. The OVC is shaping up to be a three-team race with them and Eastern Kentucky trying to track down Belmont. But, as is evident by this spread, the standings aren’t really representative of the power rankings. Other than the win over Murray State, Morehead has really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. If Murray State was a 13-point favorite the first time around, they should be favored by a lot more in the rematch. Oddsmakers have overadjusted. 8* Murray State |
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02-03-21 | LSU +8.5 v. Alabama | Top | 60-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
8* LSU (7:00 ET): This is a giant revenge game for the Bayou Bengals, who lost by 30 (at home!) to Alabama last month. As you can guess from the score (105-75), nothing went right for them that night in Baton Rouge. The tailspin began right away with Alabama opening the game on a 23-4 run. The margin grew to 31 before halftime and never dropped below 26 in the 2H. The Crimson Tide set a SEC record in that game with 23 made three-pointers. Quite obviously, it can’t possibly be THAT ugly for LSU tonight. Despite what happened to them in the first meeting, LSU is a good team. They come in at 11-5 SU and could have beaten #13 Texas Tech on Saturday. They lost that game by only five points and had a seven-point lead with just over a minute to go. It was the Tigers’ third loss in four games, which goes back to the debacle vs. Bama, so it’s getting to be “desperation time” for Will Wade’s team. Considering they’ve only been beaten twice by more than five points this year, I’ll be taking the points. Alabama is also off a loss in the Big 12-SEC Challenge, theirs coming here in Tuscaloosa against an Oklahoma team that was playing without two starters, one of which was Austin Reaves (leading scorer). That snapped a 10-game win streak for the Tide, who are still unbeaten in SEC games (9-0 SU). Only two other teams in the country (Baylor, Belmont) are 9-0 or better in conference play and I can’t see the Tide running the table in the SEC. LSU’s top four scorers were all held below their season averages (in points) the first time around. This time they make a game of it. 8* LSU |