Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-20 | Washington State v. UCLA -8 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season. After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense. They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points. UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points. They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks. On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington. That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300. Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference. They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games. UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT. That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season. Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA. The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. |
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02-13-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -3 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET #644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season. After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11. Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one. That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer. After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter. He is back and ready to go tonight. Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road. Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss. Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock. The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here. In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy). The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team. They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt. The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference. These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR. Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home. In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68. Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire. Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season. We like Texas State to roll in this game. |
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02-12-20 | Xavier +6 v. Butler | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET These 2 are trending in opposite directions. After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points. Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month. Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton. That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8. Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep. They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less. Butler’s defense is headed south. For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP. However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference. For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play. The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG. In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential. This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points. Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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02-11-20 | Celtics v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it! |
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02-11-20 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year. Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results. We’ve reached that point tonight. UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season. In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining. The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP. It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high. Even with that they had a shot to win. That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense. It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight. Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games). On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend. The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league. Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one. With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover. |
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02-10-20 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points! |
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02-10-20 | Florida State +8 v. Duke | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright. Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play. FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5. The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less. They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that. Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC. The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining. They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season. Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight. The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville. Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category. We like this match up for the FSU defense. They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league). That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep). FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC. Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot. This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team. While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win. Take the points as this one goes to the wire. |
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02-09-20 | George Mason v. Massachusetts -1 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win. The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board. The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24. While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7). The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team. That is not the case. After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field. UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island). They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss. Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play. They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home. They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road. UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today. |
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02-08-20 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -5.5 | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET Two teams headed in opposite directions here. North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit. The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game. They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit. Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin. They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU. These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses. NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson. The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings. ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG. Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %. North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense. ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9. The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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02-07-20 | Raptors v. Pacers +1 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight. |
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02-07-20 | Maryland v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference. As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss. There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point. We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that. Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland. The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one. Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58. To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement. In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game. Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch. Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak. Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season. Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game. Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games. On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots. Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games. Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday. |
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02-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points! |
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02-06-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Appalachian State | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading. They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players. 6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses). Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned). One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team. UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining. That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned. Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field. UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks. Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt. Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago. Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned. We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games. Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers. Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers. Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em. We’ll take App State to win this one. |
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02-05-20 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota. The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch. They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot. The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension. Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win. Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough. They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games. They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road. Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games. While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game. We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home. |
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02-04-20 | Penn State v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone. After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points. After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland. All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road. At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points. MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime. They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss. We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins. It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday. PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7. Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game. The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game. That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home. Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year. The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points. This is a small number to lay in this situation. MSU by double digits. |
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02-03-20 | Mavs v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home. |
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02-02-20 | Pelicans v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one. |
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02-01-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU -6 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog. The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14). BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th. The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable. This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well. The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining. On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night. BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9). With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco. We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home. St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far. In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time). BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %. Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep. They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits. St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge. Cougars cover easily here. |
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01-31-20 | Oakland v. Detroit -2 | Top | 77-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach). They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime. Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon. This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction. They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon. They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon. Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play. Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference. Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate. These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win. The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%. Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season. With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. |
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01-30-20 | Iowa v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal. Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak. Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern. They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight. The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers. The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss. Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned. They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions. Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking. The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend. Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa. Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season. The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts. And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins. Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later. Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests. They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight. They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points. Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points. Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight. Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight. Lay it with Maryland. |
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01-30-20 | 76ers v. Hawks +7 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one. |
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01-29-20 | South Dakota State v. Oral Roberts -4 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league. Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference. They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation. Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road! Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5. On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road. At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota. Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games. This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG. We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend. South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits. SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points. On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record. Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team. ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight. So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA). Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road. This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it. |
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01-28-20 | Suns +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 133-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET
This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points! |
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01-28-20 | Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic. Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56. The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%. Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC. The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points. They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers. Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency. They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games. Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best. We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points. They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it. They should be focused here. Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16. That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10. The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015. They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog. Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight. |
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01-27-20 | Magic v. Heat -6 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win. |
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01-26-20 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -4 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date. They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams. In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12). Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road. At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG. Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%. Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time. The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up. Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s. Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters. Line value is with Siena here. Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT. Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday. |
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01-25-20 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern -2 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars. We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State. Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday. These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2. Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year. They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league. Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games. One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch. Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here. Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team. Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry. The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today. Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover. |
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01-25-20 | Southern Illinois v. Illinois State -1.5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -117 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road. That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season. Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points. We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points. It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck. UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win. It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year. ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight. Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak. ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win. They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006. There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored. Take Illinois State. |
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01-24-20 | Celtics v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10. |
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01-23-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota -7 | Top | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time. South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84. As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one. During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year. They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit). We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards. Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league. They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points. They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%. On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense. That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country. The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally). They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc. The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset. The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers. He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined. On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season. IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit. We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota. |
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01-22-20 | Pacers -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row. |
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01-22-20 | Penn State v. Michigan -5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10. The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings. Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc. The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7. The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins. They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday. Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota. The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG. This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play. As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games. They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG. Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here. Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play. Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line. Take Michigan. |
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01-21-20 | Clippers +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight. |
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01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation. The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68. At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league. This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose. Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th. That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42. They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago. They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%). The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight. After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4. Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014. We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after. We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent. Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points. We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover. Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska). More of the same on Tuesday. |
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01-20-20 | Kings +6 v. Heat | Top | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET *Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season. |
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01-20-20 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA. They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race. One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th. It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s). Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not. ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season. They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola. This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons. They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS). The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th. Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday. Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings. Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home. |
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01-19-20 | South Dakota State v. South Dakota -1.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit. We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them. They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit. Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road). They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league. We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018. The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3. Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night. State is also one of the favorites to win the conference. The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard). Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup. They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG. South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home). Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV. While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset. |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same. |
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01-18-20 | Purdue v. Maryland -5 | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Great spot for the Terps here. They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin. Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week. Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State. They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good. Not so much on the road. Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10. They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road. In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc. To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories. Not good to say the least. Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG. All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points. The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game. Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year. Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56. At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2. The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season. Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team. The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska). Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year. Lay the small number. |
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01-17-20 | Hawks v. Spurs -8 | Top | 121-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points. |
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01-16-20 | Georgia Southern v. Troy State +5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt. They are better than their record and playing very well right now. After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT. Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win. Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena. Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week. Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0. However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock. Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina. Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned). The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT. This line is too high. Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally). Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half. Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close. Take the points. |
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01-15-20 | Magic +11 v. Lakers | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game. |
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01-15-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion. The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6. That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining. Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home. They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana. They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th). They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East. The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field. Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record. They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile. We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th. The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score. Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home. They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland. The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned. This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons. We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32. To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002. They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons. Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8. Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament. The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10. The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road. In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home. We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover. |
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01-14-20 | DePaul +9.5 v. Villanova | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East. Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade. Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak. They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home. The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned. Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points. Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend. Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago. They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players. Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season. They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th. DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation. The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul. Villanova is good, not great. Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here. It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points. |
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01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte. |
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01-12-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota -2 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love this spot for the Gophers at home. They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams. Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT. Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night. The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half. Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10. At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9. The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday. They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup. In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes. It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game! Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough. As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points. Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan. With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc. Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2. So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record? While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record. Take the Gophers. |
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01-11-20 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -11.5 | Top | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that. They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State. In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead. GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams. They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4. As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country. They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season. Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far. They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record. The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game). Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG. Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game. The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation). Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well. They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG. That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State. That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG. GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one. |
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01-10-20 | Maryland v. Iowa +2 | Top | 49-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes. Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season. Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska. The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota. They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort. Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game. They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week. The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State. Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage. On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%. Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%. The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road. That has proven true thus far. If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season. Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night. |
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01-09-20 | Arizona v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season. They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor. After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games. In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson. Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor). Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th). Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court. The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment. The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena. They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation). They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers. The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation. Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings. As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14. This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. |
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01-09-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 98-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright! |
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01-08-20 | Kansas -5 v. Iowa State | Top | 79-53 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion. Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova. They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread. KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength. This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons. However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past. We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game. We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak. This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams. They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time. Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons. Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th). The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation. Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th). Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight. KU with the win and cover. |
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01-07-20 | TCU v. Kansas State +1 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home. This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November. They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games. KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home. All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100. Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition. The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th. Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half. TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well. Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%. TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation. That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task. This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday. They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here. |
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01-06-20 | South Alabama v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 66-54 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games. They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here. First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point. This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip. Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss). The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6. They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1. All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200. The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th. South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington. They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference. This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span. Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category. The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win. UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up. Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here. Texas Arlington is the side tonight. |
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01-04-20 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored? Looks too easy to take SDSU. We like Utah State here. The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference. They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team. They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances. Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up. The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point. These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54. The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here. SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month. Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue. He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding. Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game. With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year. It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West. It will matter here. We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not. They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%). The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot. That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops). We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home. |
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01-02-20 | Jazz -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers. We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one. |
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01-02-20 | St. Louis +3 v. Duquesne | Top | 59-73 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal. Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115. Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court. This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season. The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins. St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule. The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road. Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings. STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL. This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues. Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season. So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight. These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home. One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess. In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds! They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again. St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%. We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog. |
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12-30-19 | Xavier +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier. Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships. They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor. They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins. They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players). How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas? This might be a tough game for them. Xavier is very good this year. They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio. Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2). They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago. The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games. Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT. One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney. That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4. This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back. We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game. Take the points. |
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12-28-19 | Pacers v. Pelicans +1 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one! |
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12-26-19 | Grizzlies +6 v. Thunder | Top | 110-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight. |
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12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron. |
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12-21-19 | Purdue v. Butler -2 | Top | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Butler -2 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET Two in-state heavyweights to at it on a neutral court in Indianapolis today. While it’s obviously a big game for Purdue, we feel it’s even bigger for Butler as they are often overlooked and get to face off against their in-state big brother. Both teams are fantastic defensively which is why the total on this game sits below 120. However, the Bulldogs are the better shooting team hitting almost 50% of their shots (18th nationally) while Purdue ranks close to 200th in that same category. The Bulldogs have only one loss on the season and that was by a single point @ Baylor who ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s power ratings. They already have 5 outstanding wins over Florida, Stanford, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Minnesota, all ranked in the top 100. The Boilers already have losses vs Marquette, Florida State, Nebraska, and Texas and Butler ranks higher than all 4 of those teams (11th in the power rankings). The one thing that Purdue has the advantage is rebounding but that will be tempered today as starting center, 7’3 Matt Haarms, looks like he will sit with a concussion. Haarms is also their 2nd leading scorer. We definitely like Butler to win today and with the line sitting at just -2 we like the Bulldogs. |
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12-19-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight. |
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12-19-19 | Coastal Carolina -4.5 v. Troy State | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET We head to the Sun Belt conference for our next college basketball winner and will play on the visiting Chanticleer’s of Coastal Carolina. We got to the metrics for support on this wager as our math model has them projected to win by 12-points. Troy is ranked 316th out of 353 schools by our standards and they’ve played one of the softest schedules in all of college basketball (332nd). Despite playing a tougher schedule Coastal Carolina is better in offensive efficiency AND defensive efficiency ratings and laying a marginal number here. C of C will take advantage on the offensive end of the floor with a team that shoots 42.15% from beyond the arc which ranks them 6th in D1 hoops. Troy does not defend the 3-point line well at all allowing opponents to hit 36.82% which ranks them 289th. The porous Trojans defense gives up 70PPG which is 207th in the nation while Coastal averages 84.2PPG which is 8th best. Those numbers are significant as Troy is 0-5 SU this season when allowing at least 72 points in a game this season. You can bet C of C is getting to 72+. This game will have more meaning than usual for the Chanticleer’s as their last game of the season a year ago was a loss to Troy by 7-points on their home court. The Trojans haven’t bounced back off a loss this year with an 0-4 ATS run in that situation while C of C on 4-0 spread run on the road against a team with a winning home record. Coastal Carolina by 12-points. |
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12-18-19 | East Tennessee State +9.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON ETSU +9.5 over LSU, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET This is a very dangerous game for this young LSU team (327th nationally in experience) that returns only 2 of their top 6 players from last season. The Tigers are coming off 3 blowout wins at home vs poor competition so they may come in a bit overconfident so to speak. They haven’t played a game in 11 days which can ruin a team’s rhythm. There is also a strong possibility this LSU team is peaking ahead to a huge game @ USC this Saturday, their first true road game of the season. That would be a mistake. ETSU is a very good team that starts all upperclassmen. The Buccaneers return all 5 starters from a team that went 24-10 last year. Head coach Steve Forbes is one of the best in the business although it goes unrecognized by most. In his 4 years at the helm for ETSU Forbes has never won fewer than 24 games and his career record here is 109-41. They are 9-2 on the year and gave Kansas all they could handle in Lawrence this year losing by 12 in what was a 6-point game with under 5:00 remaining. They are a solid shooting team (47% overall and 37% from deep) that knows how to get it done on the road winning 20 of their last 29 true road games. LSU has played a very easy schedule to date facing only 3 top 100 teams. They are 1-2 in those games with a 13-point win over Delaware and losses to Utah State and VCU. Now they face their 4th top 100 team and we think ETSU will give them all they can handle. This game should be tight and we take the points. |
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12-16-19 | Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2 | Top | 85-47 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Western Illinois +2 over Eastern Illinois, Monday at 8 PM ET This line opened with EIU favored by 2 points and with a massive 86% of the tickets coming in on that side, the line dropped to -1.5 at many spots. That says that despite only 14% of the tickets in on WIU, heavy money came in on that side to move the number. We agree with the move. Western Illinois is just 2-6 yet they’ve been competitive in all but one game and that was @ Indiana to open the season. The remainder of their losses were all decided by 7 points or less. The Leathernecks are playing their best basketball right now. They are 2-2 over their last 4 games with one loss coming by a single point and the other by 4 points @ Evansville who is 8-3 and won @ Kentucky this year. Also 3 of those 4 games were on the road. They haven’t played a home game since November 23rd and they’ve had 10+ days to get ready for this big home revenge game. They lost 2 games to EIU last year and both went to the wire losing by 2 in OT and by 7. Four of the five starters for Western in that game are back and they’ve been waiting for this one. While they’ve been resting and preparing for this game, Eastern Illinois is off 2 huge wins at home vs UWGB last week and vs UW Milwaukee on Saturday. While we like this EIU team quite a bit this year, this is a tough spot in a quick turnaround situation. Despite their record, Western Illinois is very solid fundamentally as they rank 5th nationally in turnover percentage, 11th in 3 point shooting percentage, and #1 in FT percentage hitting nearly 89% as a team. We like WIU to win this one at home so we’ll take the points here. |
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12-14-19 | Heat v. Mavs -8 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points. |
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12-14-19 | Oregon v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Michigan -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 12PM ET Great spot for the Wolverines here. They are coming off a loss @ Illinois on Wednesday and they are now back at home where they are 5-0 winning by an average margin of 88 to 69. They’ve played an extremely tough schedule (10th most difficult in the nation so far) and they’ve already beaten 5 top 60 teams including Gonzaga, North Carolina, Iowa, Iowa State, and Creighton. Their only losses on the season were @ Illinois and @ Louisville. They play host to the Ducks here in what will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season. They’ve played a few neutral site games including losses to North Carolina & Gonzaga in the Bahamas, the same 2 teams Michigan beat in that tourney. The Wolverines are shooting 52% at home this year including 41% from beyond the arc. That gives Michigan is huge advantage here as they are obviously comfortable playing and shooting at home facing a team that has yet to venture onto an opponent’s home court. The Ducks have been a solid shooting team but in their 3 neutral site games they shot just 40% from the field and lost 2 of those games as we mentioned above. Defensively Michigan should have the edge as well ranking 16th nationally in defensive efficiency (vs a very tough schedule) compared to Oregon’s 52nd in that same category. It’s tough to win on the road period, much less vs a top notch opponent that will be extra motivated coming of a loss. Oregon has won 20+ games in each of the last 2 seasons yet they are just 9-14 SU on the road. We like Michigan in this spot. |
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12-11-19 | Winthrop +12 v. TCU | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Winthrop +12 over TCU, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Winthrop comes in with a 4-5 record but they have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation (45th ranked SOS) and they’ve been very competitive. 4 of their 5 losses have come by 3 points or less and their other loss was by 13 points @ Duke. In that game the Blue Devils were +10 made FT’s and shot 58% from beyond the arc to just 28% for Winthrop and it was STILL a competitive game. Duke led by 7 at half and it was still a 7 point game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining. In their 4 games vs top 130 teams, the Eagles beat St Mary’s on the road, lost @ Fresno by 3, lost at East Tennessee State by 3 and lost @ Duke by 13. They are a dangerous team because they make 3’s at 9.3 per game (45th nationally) and tonight they face a TCU defense that ranks 332nd in 3-point percentage allowed at 39.2%. The Frogs also allow their opponents to score 35% of their points from beyond the arc which is the 65th most in the nation. The Frogs have played only 2 top 100 teams and lost to both (Clemson on a neutral site and USC at home). Their most recent game vs USC on Friday the Frogs rallied from an 18 point second half deficit only to still lose by 2. A lot of physical and mental energy was used in that come back and we expect them to be flat vs an opponent they may not get the motor going. That would be a mistake. Beyond their 2 losses, TCU has played only 2 other teams ranked between 100 & 200 beating UC Irvine at home by 1 & Illinois State at home by 12 which was their largest lead of the game (TCU led by just 6 with less than 4:00 remaining). Winthrop is one of the better mid major programs (6 straight winning seasons) and they will be ready here as they have been all season vs big conference opponents. They are rested as they’ve played only 1 game since December 1st and if TCU comes in flat at all, they could be in trouble. Take the 12 points as we expect a tight game here. |
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12-10-19 | Knicks +9 v. Blazers | Top | 87-115 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here. |
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12-10-19 | Stony Brook v. Hofstra -4 | Top | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Hofstra -4 over Stony Brook, Tuesday at 7 PM ET Hofstra was 27-8 last year and while they lost leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman they do return a number of key players from last season including 3 starters and their top reserve. They have started slower than they expected with a 6-4 record, however they have played only 3 home games on the season. In fact, their last home game was nearly a month ago on November 15th. They have won 20 of their last 22 home games and they are coming off an embarrassing 73-45 loss @ St Bonnies on Saturday so we expect a big effort here. Stony Brook comes in with a 7-3 record but 6 of their wins have come against teams ranked 235th or lower. Their lone decent win came against North Dakota State (ranked 157th) winning by 7 on a neutral court. The Seawolves have also been very shaky on the road this year where they are 2-2 with their wins coming vs Wagner (ranked 330th) by 3 points in OT and vs Texas A&M Corpus Christie (ranked 305th) by 5 points. They are shooting just 39% from the field in those 4 road games. Hofstra is shooting over 47% in their 3 home games while averaging 85 PPG. They have 9 days off after this so absolutely no look ahead, plus they’ve been away from home for a month as we mentioned. Stony Brook, on the other hand, is coming off 2 easy wins at home vs weaker competition and they have a huge game on deck with Providence this weekend. Getting a very solid Hofstra team at home in this spot with a manageable number is very nice value. |
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12-07-19 | Indiana v. Wisconsin | Top | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin (pick-em) over Indiana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET Huge value with Wisconsin here in our opinion. It this game was played 2 weeks ago, Wisconsin is favored by 3 to 4 points. Now after a few losses, we’re getting them at an even game at home. This becomes a huge home game for the Badgers who have lost 3 in a row to Richmond, New Mexico, and NC State, all top 100 teams away from home (or neutral). They shot absolutely horribly in those 3 losses (2 in NY and 1 @ NC State) and now that they are back in the Kohl Center we expect a much better shooting performance. They made less than 20% of their 3 pointers combined in those 3 losses but they are hitting 37% behind the arc and averaging 75 PPG at home this year. That includes a 16 point win over Marquette, the highest rated team they’ve faced this season. Indiana is undefeated on the year but they have yet to play a road game, not even a neutral site game. They have played only 2 top 100 teams on the season and their current strength of schedule ranks 338th out of 351 teams. The Hoosiers are solid but they are a young team (2 freshmen starters) that we expect to struggle in their first road game. The Badgers have DOMINATED this series winning 19 of the last 22 meetings with IU’s only wins coming by 1, 2, and 2 points. Wisconsin will be in desperation mode at home after 3 straight losses and all they have to do is win this game to cover. Take the Badgers. |
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12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -3 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Ohio State, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET Ohio State comes in undefeated however they have yet to leave Columbus. All 7 of their games this year have been in the friendly confines of Value City Arena. They are a young team (6 underclassmen averaging 10+ minutes per game) that may experience some growing pains on the road at times and we expect that in their first road game tonight @ the historic Dean Dome. UNC has one loss but they’ve played the much tougher schedule, especially as of late. The Heels are coming off games vs Alabama, Michigan, and Oregon last week all on a neutral site. OSU has not played a top 100 team since November 13th with their last 4 games coming against Stetson, IPFW, Kent, and Morgan State. Now they take a HUGE step up in competition and on the road. We’re not sure they’re quite ready for that. The Heels also got a boost last week when senior Brandon Robinson returned after missing their first 4 games due to an injury. Robinson showed no signs of a slow start with 34 points in his 3 games while averaging nearly 30 minutes per game. Super Frosh Cole Anthony (20 PPG) has a banged up ankle for UNC but he has been able to rest it since last Friday and he practiced on Tuesday and appears ready to go. OSU has struggled on the defensive glass despite their easy slate and UNC is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation so we expect a big advantage on the boards. It’s obviously very tough to walk into the Dean Dome and beat the Tar Heels. They are 58-6 SU their last 64 home games AND 56 of those 58 wins have come by at least 4 points which would cover tonight’s number. We like North Carolina to hand OSU their first loss of the season. |
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12-04-19 | Pacers v. Thunder +1 | Top | 107-100 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits. |
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets. |
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12-03-19 | Butler v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA's 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Butler, Tuesday at 7 PM ET These two met last year @ Butler and Ole Miss led by 5 with around 5:00 minutes remaining and lost by 7. That should motivate them for this rematch. Not only that, the Rebels, who are 5-2 on the season, are coming off an embarrassing effort in Kansas City facing Oklahoma State. The Rebs were favored by 2 in that game and lost 78-37. Yes you read that correctly. It was simply a horrible performance as Ole Miss made 29% of their shots overall and made ONE 3-point shot in 20 attempts! After the game head coach Kermit Davis called it “embarrassing” and we expect them to come out with some fire tonight at home. They were playing well entering that game beating a very solid Penn State two days prior to this debacle and nearly topped #15 Memphis on the road a few days before that losing by 1- point. Butler is 7-0 on the season and ranked 24th yet they are an underdog here against t team that just lost by 39 points? That’s why the vast majority bets are coming in on Butler yet this line is not moving. Ole Miss is still a favorite. This is the Bulldogs first true road game and they have a huge revenge game on deck as they host Florida on Saturday, a team that beat them 77-43 last season. Butler is solid but this situation sets up very nicely for an Ole Miss team that brings a number of key performers back from last year’s NCAA tourney team. All they have to do is win at home and we feel they will give Butler their first loss of the season. Take Ole Miss. |
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12-02-19 | North Carolina Central +16 v. Wofford | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON NC Central +16 over Wofford, Monday at 7 PM ET NCCU, out of the MEAC, is a very solid program that has been to the NCAA tournament 3 straight seasons. They have gotten off to a slow start (2-5 record) but were picked by most to win the MEAC again so we feel they are undervalued right now. They have a very solid backcourt with Perkins & Miller, both returning starters from last year, and the additions of Boston College transfer Ty Graves & Wichita State transfer CJ Keyser. They shoot the 3 very well (115th nationally) and they are facing a Wofford team that defends the arc very poorly (315th nationally). Wofford is simply a poor defensive team in general allowing their opponents to shoot almost 49% on the year. The Terriers were a fantastic story last year going undefeated in the Southern Conference and making it to the Big Dance. However, they lost many of their key players off that team including sharp shooter Fletcher Magee and big man Cameron Jackson who graduated along with starter Keve Aluma who transferred to Va Tech. Speaking of Va Tech, the Terriers also lost their coach Mike Young who took over the Hokies program. With so many changes from last year, they’ve struggle to find their way this year having already lost 4 games which is almost as many as they lost all of last year (5). This team is overvalued right now due to last year’s success. We like NC Central to score enough to keep this within this number which is too high in our opinion. |
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11-29-19 | Iowa State v. Seton Hall -2 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Iowa State, Friday at 7:00 PM ET This line is light according to our power ratings. We have Seton Hall favored by -4.5 so we’re getting a full possession of value here. The Pirates are 5-2 on the year but their 2 losses have been down to the wire affairs vs Michigan State & Oregon (both top 15 teams according to Ken Pom). The Pirates could easily be 7-0 as they led Michigan State by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining (lost by 3) and led Oregon by 19 (lost by 2). Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days here in the Bahamas and with that depth is very important and Seton Hall is absolutely the deeper team (26th nationally in bench minutes while ISU is 222nd in that category). In their 2 games vs Oregon & Southern Miss, the Pirates were able to distribute double digit minutes to 10 players in game 1 and 9 players in game 2. Iowa State (4-2 with losses to Oregon State & Michigan) really goes only 7 deep so we could be looking at a tired team here in the 2nd half. This is a favorable match up for the Hall. They rank higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency and they are the better rebounding team. They also shoot the 3 very well (31st nationally at nearly 40%) and ISU’s defensive weakness is defending the arc (294th nationally). The Pirates have found their groove from deep in this tourney hitting nearly 50% (24 of 51) in their 2 games and they should do the same today vs the Cyclones. They also have the best player on the court in Myles Powell who is averaging 23 PPG and making over 40% of his 3 point attempts and 83% of his FT’s. As we mentioned this line is too short in our opinion and we like Seton Hall to cover this one. |
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11-25-19 | Thunder -6 v. Warriors | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points. |
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11-25-19 | Stanford v. Oklahoma -4 | Top | 73-54 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma -4 over Stanford, Monday at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN2 Both these teams come in undefeated but all records are not created equal. OU has beaten 2 top 75 teams (Minnesota & Oregon State) both by 8 or more points and both on neutral courts. The Sooners are experienced returning 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and gave Virginia a run in the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney last year before falling to the eventual National Champion. Stanford is the opposite as far as experience. They are young starting 2 freshman including point guard Tyrell Terry. The Cardinal have yet to leave their home arena this season and we’ll see how this young team adjusts to a different environment. We know Oklahoma can adjust as we mentioned with 2 solid win not on their home court. On top of that, Stanford has not yet played a team ranked higher than 134th and 5 of their 6 games have come against teams rated 200th or lower. This will be by far the best defense Stanford has faced with Oklahoma ranking 29th nationally in defensive efficiency. Prior to this the Cardinal have not faced a team ranked inside the top 125 in defensive efficiency. The Sooners are a very well coached team under Lon Kruger and it shows in their key stats where they are very good defensively, they turn the ball over very little (5th best turnover ratio in the country), they get to the FT line and make them when the do get there (81% as a team), and they don’t foul very much with their opponents getting only 8.7% of their points from the line which is the lowest mark in the NCAA. Kruger has his teams playing well early in the season with a 27-2 SU record in November & December since the start of the 2017 season. We’ll lay this small number with Oklahoma on Monday night on a neutral court in Kansas City, a venue they are very familiar with as the Big 12 tourney is played here. |
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11-24-19 | Akron +18.5 v. Louisville | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Akron +18.5 over Louisville, Sunday at 6 PM ET This is a unique situation early in the season as these two teams have already played 3 common opponents. With that, we have a pretty solid comparison. Each has played USC Upstate, Youngstown State, and NC Central. Both are 3-0 vs those common opponents and the results have been fairly similar. Akron has beaten those teams by an average of 21 points while Louisville has beaten them by an average of 26 points. Akron is a veteran team that can shoot the ball well from deep. That plays into Louisville’s weakest part of their defense as they rank 145th in 3-point defense. Teams that have good guard play and can hit from deep are always a threat as a big underdog. Akron also plays very good defense which is another big factor. They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and that’s no fluke as they ranked 14th in that category last season. Akron’s only loss this year was a 10-point setback @ a very solid West Virginia team in a game that the Zips shot only 38%. They impressed us on the boards in that game getting out rebounded by just 1 against a WVU team that is consistently among the top rebounding teams in the nation. Akron proved last year they can hang with top notch opponents as they took Clemson to the wire (lost by 3) as well as a 29-5 Nevada team (lost by 6). This number is too high as we expect the Zips to be competitive here. |
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11-22-19 | Celtics v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points. |
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11-20-19 | Magic v. Raptors -3 | Top | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight. |
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11-18-19 | Appalachian State v. NC-Greensboro -9 | Top | 41-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON UNC Greensboro -9 over Appalachian State, Monday at 7 PM ET UNCG is one of the favorites this year in the Southern Conference and we catch them here off a loss to Montana State as a 15 point favorite. Greensboro took 29 more shots in the game but simply shot poorly hitting only 36% while Montana State hit 52%. It was just one of those games where the ball was not going in the basket for UNCG. It was also a poor defensive effort from a team that has been very good on that end of the court ranking 26th nationally in defensive efficiency 2 years ago and 74th last season. Many of the key components are back from a team that finished 29-7 last year and this program has won 25+ game three straight seasons. They finished 14-1 at home last year with their only loss coming at the hands of Wofford who was 30-5 a year ago. Now off a rare home loss we expect them to have a huge bounce back and play very well in this game. In a round robin type format, UNCG is hosting App State, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State. They played Tennessee Tech on Friday (won by 34) and Montana State on Saturday (upset 1 point loss). App State played both teams as well here in Greensboro (lost to Montana State & beat Tenn Tech) so they each will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Advantage goes to the home team for sure in that situation. Unlike UNCG, App State has not been a successful program with their last winning season coming back in 2011 (16-15 record). They hired a new coach Kerns from Presbyterian and he is trying to turn this program around. While he may just do that, it won’t happen this season. Greensboro plays pressure defense creates turnovers at a high rates ranking in the top 30 in defensive turnover rate each of the last 3 season. It’s early in the season but they are at it again turning their opponents over 28% of the time ranking them 12th nationally. App State ranks 254th so far this season in offensive turnover rate. This isn’t a great match up for the Mountaineers and they will be facing an angry Greensboro team that is used to winning at home. UNCG wins by double digits. |
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11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points! |
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11-13-19 | Clippers +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks. The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS |
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11-08-19 | Bucks v. Jazz +3 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz. |
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11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points. |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win. |
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10-26-19 | Pacers -5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points. |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run. |
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10-23-19 | Knicks +10.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points! |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight. |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points! |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -3 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win! |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game. |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 – The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds. The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits. |