Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-21 | Wichita State +3 v. Memphis | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +3 over Memphis, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Memphis continues to be overrated by the oddsmakers. They have lost 7 straight games vs the number by a combined 57 points or -8 PPG vs the spread. Since December 1st the Tigers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100. They are 1-5 SU overall vs top 100 teams with their lone win in their season opener vs St Marys. They are 2-2 in the AAC with their wins coming vs Tulane by 6 and South Florida by 1. Those 2 teams are ranked last and 8th in the 11 team conference. Their 2 losses came vs Tulsa, a team Wichita just beat by 19 in their most recent game (they’ve already beaten Tulsa twice). The Shockers have been impressive this year with 4 wins already vs top 100 opponents and their only 3 losses have come at the hands of Missouri (by 10), Oklahoma State (by 3) and Houston (by 7) – all ranked inside the top 40 with Houston currently ranked 8th. Their 7 point loss @ Houston was the Cougars closest win this season and a game the Shockers led by 7 in the 2nd half. Wichita has played the much tougher schedule and much more consistent schedule as they’ve played 4 games in January but have had a week off to get ready for this game. Memphis, on the other hand, just played their first game since December 29th last Sunday, a 58-57 loss @ Tulsa. The Tigers are a poor shooting team that has only top 0.90 PPP once in their last 5 games. The last three games they’ve scored 49, 58, and 57 points. We don’t think they should be favored in this game so we’ll grab the generous points with Wichita State |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9PM ET We know home favorites in the NBA have not done well this season, and the fact the Jazz are just 2-2 SU at home, but we like them here minus the points. Despite playing just 4 home games and 9 road games the Jazz have a +/- differential this season of plus +5.1PPG which rates 5th best in the NBA. Utah has caught fire with five straight wins and covers, most recently a road win at Denver, when their best player Donovan Mitchell didn’t play well. The Jazz are one of three teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the other two are the Lakers and Bucks. The Jazz are 53-25 SU at home since 2018 with an average margin of victory of +6.2PPG. In our opinion the Pelicans made a bad hire with Stan Van Gundy as their coach. It’s not that he isn’t a great coach, he’s just not the right fit for the Pelicans. New Orleans is 1-4 SU & ATS their last five games and three of those games were at home. The Pels are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they struggle to shoot the 3-ball at 33.4%. New Orleans has played three road games against similar competition to the Jazz and lost all three by double-digits. We like Utah by 10-points here. |
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01-19-21 | Colorado State +7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Colorado State +7.5 @ Utah State, 9 PM ET - Utah State is coming off a HUGE 2-game series with San Diego State and played both games at a high level, so a letdown is imminent. San Diego State was one of the favorites to win the conference this season which is why they were small favorites in both game on this court over the weekend with the Aggies. Those two wins by Utah State has caused an over-reaction by the oddsmakers which has driven this line up to where it is now, yet Colorado State may be better than San Diego State. CSU is 3rd in the conference in OEFF at 1.115 (San Diego State 8th) and 3rd in DEFF (SDSU 5th). The Rams are a great shooting team with an EFG% of 56 (23rd in nation), 39.2% 3-point shooting (21st) a 2-pt percentage of 53.5%. Utah State will have a much tougher time defending the Rams shooters in this game than they did SDSU. Utah State has some incredible defensive numbers this season but prior to the two games against San Diego State they hadn’t played a team ranked higher than 212 per KenPom in 8 straight games. We like the Rams and the points here in a close game. |
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01-18-21 | Bucks v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We are NOT betting this game because of the Harden deal! Yes, that’s certainly a factor but our analytics have the Bucks grade lower than the oddsmakers as they aren’t playing up to last years standards. The Bucks are 9-4 SU with a +/- differential of plus 10.8PPG. but they’ve faced an extremely easy schedule. Milwaukee has only faced two teams with current winning records, and they lost both of those games (Jazz, Celtics). In their current four game winning streak the teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 21-27. The Nets now are the favorite in the East with arguably the three best individual scorers in the NBA on their roster. Harden, Durant and Irving can literally go for 50 on any given night and opposing coaches/teams will have nightmares trying to figure out how to stop them. Brooklyn has also played a soft schedule BUT they’ve beaten the four best teams they’ve faced (Denver, Philly, Utah & Boston). The Nets have too many superstars and will be out to prove a point here. |
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01-18-21 | Florida State v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1.5 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Cards are coming off a 78-72 loss @ Miami in a game they were favored by -4.5 points. Their starting guards, Jones and Johnson, both shoot around 40% from 3-point land combined for 2 of 9 from deep on Saturday. The Cards as a team made only 3 of 20 from deep which was the difference in the game. The should fare much better at home on Monday vs an FSU defense that is poor at defending the arc (263rd nationally). The Noles topped North Carolina on Saturday, however the Heels, who entered Saturday ranked 11th in the ACC in 3-point shooting, made 10 shots from deep vs FSU. The Noles had a long 2+ week break recently due to covid issues and they’ve had 2 games since that break both at home last Wednesday and on Saturday. They won both games and their offense was ridiculously good. Over the 2 games they made 65 of their 108 shot attempts (60%), 20 of their 34 three point attempts (59%), and 37 of their 38 FT attempts (97%). While they do have an efficient offense, those numbers are not sustainable especially now that they take the road for only the 2nd time this season. Their first road game was @ Clemson and FSU lost that game by 10 shooting 42% overall and just 28% from deep. They are facing a very solid Louisville defense (allowing 0.93 PPP) coming off one of their worst efforts of the year on Saturday as Miami hit them for 1.15 PPP. Expect the Cards to play very well defensively on Monday. FSU is also a bit banged up with guards Barnes (11 PPG) possibly out and and Walker (16 PPG) a game time decision. Louisville is 7-0 at home this year and they are also 19-4 their last 23 home meetings with FSU. The Noles are a bit overvalued right now and Louisville is at home off a loss. Nice spot to lay the small number. |
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01-17-21 | Bulls +7 v. Mavs | Top | 117-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7 @ Dallas Mavericks, 3 PM ET - The Bulls have lost four straight games, but they’ve been competitive in all of those losing by a combined 11 total points. Prior to this losing streak they had won 4 of five games including a win at home over this Dallas team. In their last four game the Bulls lost to the Clippers by 3-points and the Lakers by 2-points, both on the road. As a dog this season the Bulls have covered 8 of ten games. The Mavs look like a MASH unit right now with several key contributors currently sidelined, but they did recently get Porzingis back in the lineup. Dallas is also on a nice spread run with five straight covers but all but one of those were as a dog or small favorite. The Mavs have a winning record at 6-5 SU with an average point differential of +4.3PPG which is not enough to cover here. Chicago has a negative differential of -4.8PPG this season which is good enough to get the money here. Dallas may win this game but it won’t be by a wide margin. |
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01-16-21 | Baylor -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#691 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -4.5 over Texas Tech, 4:00 PM ET - Baylor has been one of two dominant teams this year along with Gonzaga. The Bears are 11-0 with all 11 wins coming by double digits. That includes 4 wins vs top 100 teams and an 13 point win vs an outstanding Illinois team who ranks 8th nationally in the power rankings. Their average margin of victory on the season is +28 points. They rank in the top 5 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears also rank in the top 10 nationally in eFG%, 3 point %, and offensive rebounding. This is as complete a team as you’ll find in the nation. Texas Tech is solid. They are not on the same level as Baylor. The Red Raiders have already lost 2 home games vs Oklahoma State & Kansas. They have won just 2 games this season vs top 50 teams both by margins of 2 points. Tech is coming off a huge won @ Texas winning 79-77 on a last second shot by Mac McClung. The Raiders were more than fortunate as they led that game for a total of 45 seconds. Baylor won both games in this Big 12 series last year and the Bears have taken a big step forward while our ratings have Tech at about the same level as a year ago. We actually feel Tech is a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 5 straight home games to the number. Baylor is the much better team this season and we’ll lay the small number. |
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01-14-21 | Hornets v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -7.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:30 PM ET - We have waited for a spot to play on the Raptors and this is a solid one. Toronto has gotten off to a horrible start by their expectations and are coming off a 4 game West coast road trip where they went 1-3 SU. They have just 2 wins on the season after going 53-19 in the regular season a year ago. Charlotte hasn’t been a great road team going 27-48 SU the past two years, last season they had the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA of -8.1PPG. The Hornets are in a bad scheduling situation here playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back to back after a game last night versus Dallas. This line is set up to draw Charlotte money and we won’t bite. Back the Raptors in this one. |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah +1.5 over Stanford, 5 PM ET *Early tip* With public money immediately flowing in on Stanford this line moved the opposite direction which grabbed our attention. Utah has some tremendous offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers despite playing a brutally tough schedule. The Utes have lost four straight games, but it came against teams rated 28th or better by Kenpom. Utah lost three of those games close to UCLA by 2, Oregon by 6 and Colorado by 7-points and they got outscored from the charity strip by 16 in that one. Stanford has won 3 in a row, but they’ve been playing the bottom of the Pac 12 conference unlike Utah. The Cardinal’s two toughest games have been against Arizona who they beat by 3 and Oregon who they lost by 17. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and Utah is in a desperate situation here. Bet against the public and play on Utah here. |
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01-13-21 | NC State +4.5 v. Florida State | Top | 73-105 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
#661 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +4.5 over Florida State, Wed at 6:30 PM ET - We think this NC State team is undervalued. They are 6-3 on the season but definitely better than their record. This team has only been at 100% for a few games this season as starters Hayes and Funderburk (now coming off bench) have missed a few key games. The Wolfpack are coming off 2 straight losses @ Clemson in OT and at home vs an underrated Miami team in tight game over the weekend. The Canes shot the lights out over the weekend hitting nearly 50% of their shots with NC State hitting only 38% yet the game went to the wire. Because of Covid issues, Florida State hasn’t played in over 2 weeks. Their last game was a 10 point loss @ Clemson on December 29th. Tough to not play a game for that long and come back at an optimum level. Despite their 6-3 record, the Wolfpack are +12 PPG on the season while the 5-2 Seminoles are +8 PPG with a very similar strength of schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton was blunt about the interruption, "In practice we very seldom, ever, ever have a starting lineup together. We never practice who starts together. We practice different lineups and different groups of guys every day. ... Because we have different mixtures. Everybody's got to blend in." FSU won both games last year in tight fashion with margins of 5 & 6 points giving a little extra motivation to the Wolfpack. We think NC State has a great shot to win this one and we’re getting a decent cushion with the pointspread here. |
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01-12-21 | Nuggets v. Nets +1 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets are off back-to-back losses and look to bounce back at home over Denver. Brooklyn had to play a few games without Kevin Durant who was in Covid protocols, then were without Kyrie Irving for a few games. No Irving here but they do have KD who scored 36-points in their most recent home loss to OKC. Brooklyn is currently in elite company in the NBA with a top 11 efficiency rating in both offense and defense with only the Bucks as the other team that can make that claim. Denver has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league, but their defense ranks near the bottom on the NBA at 25th in defensive efficiency. Denver is 4-1 SU their last five games but two of those wins came over a bad Minnesota team, Dallas and Philly were both short-handed with Covid issues and the Knicks are really struggling right now. The current perception is the Nuggets are playing well but that’s a byproduct of weak competition. The Nets are off a pair of losses and motivated at home. Nuggets have not covered as a dog in four straight. |
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01-12-21 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +2 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2 over Duke, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Duke has been shaky at best all season long with a 6-2 record and their only top 100 win coming vs Notre Dame. The Devils have played only one road game all season and that was over 3 weeks ago. They have played only 2 games since December 16th due to some covid issues. In their 2 games since December 16th they had to come from 16 points down at home to beat a 2-9 Boston College team by 1 points. Duke also beat Wake Forest at home by 11 but the game was much closer than that as the game was tied midway through the 2nd half and they didn’t take their first 10+ point lead until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. This is a very young team that isn’t built to win games on the road. They rarely get to the FT line (13% of their points from the line – 327th nationally) and they’re poor at defending the arc. Va Tech is 9-2 on the season and their only loss since December 8th was a 2 point loss @ Louisville. They are very solid 3-point shooting team hitting 36% which matches up very nicely vs this Duke defense. The Hokies have covered 5 of their last 6 and remain very underrated in our opinion. This Duke team is nowhere near as good as their teams yet they are still getting the respect because of their name. They are just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games and we’re getting the better team at home around a pick-em here. Take Virginia Tech. |
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01-11-21 | Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Loyola Chicago -6.5 over Indiana State, 7PM ET - Loyola Chicago was thrown a “Covid-curveball” when they were scheduled to play Missouri Valley leader Drake this past weekend but instead faced Indiana State. Because of a Covid outbreak on Drakes roster the Ramblers were instead forced to change last minute and travel to play Indiana State. In an obvious let down situation Loyola lost to the Sycamores by 5-points with the big difference in the game being a +12 margin of made free throws for Indiana State. Loyola was projected to be one of the best teams in the MVC this season while Indiana State was expected to finish near the bottom. In fact, the Ramblers rate higher in our power ratings than undefeated Drake, who beat Indiana State on their home court by 18 and 7-points. Prior to the upset in the game Sunday to Indiana State, the Ramblers two previous losses were to quality foes Richmond and Wisconsin. Loyola is the most efficient offense in the Missouri Valley and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Indiana State is the 4th worst in OEFF, 6th worst in DEFF. The Ramblers get payback here after the upset Sunday. |
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01-09-21 | Suns v. Pacers -3 | Top | 125-117 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3 over Phoenix Suns, 7 PM ET - Two of the best defenses square off here when Phoenix rolls into Indianapolis for a game against the Pacers. Indiana has a scheduling advantage with the Suns come off a game last night in Detroit while the Pacers are rested. This will also be the Suns 3rd game in four days. Early on the Suns led the league in defensive efficiency but they’ve been steadily dropping in that category as the season has gone on. Indiana on the other hand has not and they can defend every position with the 7th best defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Pacers can also shoot it with the 2nd best overall FG% offense in the NBA at 49%. Indiana is 3-0-1 ATS their last four home games against a team with a winning road record and they catch the Suns in a favorable situation. |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks continue to compete, especially on the defensive end of the court which has been a trademark of head coach Tom Thibodeau wherever he’s been. It’s early in the season but the Knicks are 8th in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.062-points per possession. Last season the Knicks were 23rd in DEFF, giving up 1.130PPP. New York is holding foes to under .30% shooting from beyond the arc and below 44% from the field which both rank in the top 4 of the NBA. Oklahoma City has trouble scoring the way it is with the 30th ranked offense in terms of scoring this season at 102PPG. The Thunder don’t shoot well at 43.8% overall and 33% from the 3-point line. OKC is last in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.007PPP. Oklahoma City has the 2nd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -8.7PPG. The Knicks have only played three home games but are 2-1 SU with impressive wins over the Bucks and Jazz and the lone loss against an elite 76ers team. The Thunder are coming off a road win over the Pelicans, but New Orleans is struggling right now so we’re not impressed. New York continue to be undervalued and we’ll buy low here. |
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01-08-21 | Youngstown State v. Wright State -11.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Wright State -11.5 over Youngstown State, 7 PM ET - We feel Wright State is the best team in the Horizon conference this season, yet they are looking up at Illinois Chicago and Cleveland State in the standings. Cleveland State is 6-0 in league play but have played three of the worst teams in the league in IUPUI, IPFW and this same Youngstown State team that Wright State plays today. Cleveland State beat this Youngstown State team by 18 and 7-points earlier this season. Wright State had ripped off 7 wins in a row before an upset loss to Oakland their last time out. After beating Oakland, the night before by 29, the Raiders lost by 10 as an 11-point chalk. We’ve said it a million times and will say it again, bet good teams off bad losses! Wright State has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 64th and an AEO of 116th. Youngstown State is 2-4 in league play and coming off a pair of home games against UW Green Bay who might be the worst team in the Horizon. YSU beat UWGB in the first meeting by 7, then lost the next day by 10 in OT. That’s the same UWGB team Wright State beat by 14 and 13. Wright State has the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the Horizon and will exploit a Penguins team that is last in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.183 points per possession. The key here is whether or not Wright State will be motivated against this lesser opponent and we know they will be off a loss in their last game AND a loss to YSU last year in the final meeting of the season. |
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01-07-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Murray State -2.5 over Eastern Illinois, 8:30 PM ET - Murray State was picked as one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley Conference this year but have gotten off to a 1-3 start. Two of those losses came against Austin Peay and Belmont who are currently two of the top five teams in the OVC. The most recent loss for the Racers came to Morehead State at home which broke a 25-game winning streak on their home court. Eastern Illinois is coming off a win at home which extended their home record to 3-0 this season. Closer inspection though shows those three wins came against weak competition that are not on the level as Murray State. The Panthers most recent win came by 6-points over Tennessee Tech who is one of the worst teams in the OVC. EIU struggles to defend with an efficiency rating of 220th allowing 1.011 points per possession. Their EFG% defense is also horrendous ranking 266th. The Panthers offense isn’t much better ranking 152nd in OEFF at less than 1-point per possession. The Racers are similar to the Panthers in terms of offensive efficiency but much better on the defensive end of the floor allowing .975PPP (135th). The Racers have won 41 out of their 50 regular season meetings and 19 of 27 games at Lantz Arena. Up until their loss there at the end of last season, the Racers had won five in a row and 10 of the last 12 on this court. The Racers bounce back here. |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35 PM ET - This is a favorable schedule situation for the Nets as the 76ers played last night making this the back end of consecutive nights. This is also the Sixers 3rd game in four nights. The Sixers have enjoyed some “home cooking” this season with just 3 road games thus far where they are 2-1 SU. Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant here, but the Nets didn’t need him in a blowout the other night of the Jazz. The Nets have some solid depth which is why they don’t need to rely solely on their two SuperStars. Philly holds the advantage on the defensive end of the court but the gap between these two teams in terms of defensive efficiency isn’t great. The Nets though enjoy a definite advantage offensively with the 5th best offensive efficiency number compared to Philadelphia’s 15th (or league average). Philly is just 15-25-1 ATS as a road favorite their last 41 games and fatigue becomes a factor tonight. |
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01-06-21 | Raptors v. Suns -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Toronto Raptors, 9 PM ET - We don’t have a reason to believe in the Raptors turning things around anytime soon as rumors are swirling about chemistry issues within the team. Toronto has gotten off to a 1-5 SU start with their only win coming at home against the Knicks. They didn’t show up for a HUGE game against Boston the other night at home when the Celtics looked like a MASH unit and still lost by 12-points. In three road games the Raptors have been beaten by 4 at New Orleans, 7 at Philly and 5 at San Antonio. If you don’t think the Suns are for real, think again. Phoenix has gotten off to a 5-2 start with impressive home wins on their resume over Dallas and New Orleans. The Suns are coming off a home loss which will have them focused and motivated here. Phoenix is doing it with the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.045 points per possession and an offense that is ranked 10th overall in offensive efficiency. Toronto is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA right now (29th in OEFF) and their defense isn’t what it was a year ago with Ibaka and Gasol now in L.A. The numbers haven’t caught up with the Raptors yet so this is a bargain price to play against them. |
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01-04-21 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -8 over Colorado State, 9 PM ET - San Diego State was just favored by 9-points at home against Colorado State and lost after leading by 26-points in the game. It was the largest comeback win in D1 this season and also in the last ten seasons. Now we are getting a better number with a highly motivated Aztecs team with payback on their minds. The Rams lost by 20-points to Saint Mary’s earlier this season and we have San Diego State rated significantly higher. Colorado State has played a significantly weaker schedule than SDSU and yet the Aztecs rate exponentially better in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last season on this same court San Diego State was favored by 13-points against CSU, then this year 9-points and now we have a bargain price in this rematch. The Aztecs are 10-2 SU off a loss their last twelve and have won by an average of 15PPG. San Diego has enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage with a 32-6 SU record since 2018 with a +15.1PPG positive differential. Payback here in this quick turnaround. |
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01-04-21 | Thunder v. Heat -8 | Top | 90-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -8 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - This won’t be the last time we play against the Thunder as we just don’t feel they are going to be very good this season. The Thunder do have two road wins this season at Charlotte and Saturday in Orlando, but this is not a great spot for them. Miami is coming off a horrible offensive showing and loss in Dallas and will look to bounce back with a big home win Monday. Miami has been remarkable off a loss recently with a 28-7 SU run, +7.2PPG. The Heat were 25-7 SU last year at home with an average winning margin of +9.3PPG which was the third best differential in the NBA. The Heat have covered four straight at home as a favorite while Thunder 1-5 ATS last six on the road against a team with a winning record. |
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01-03-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +1 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #840 Minnesota +1 over Ohio State, 5:30 PM ET - Good spot to play on the Gophers here as they are off a loss at Wisconsin and back at home where they are 34-8 SU since 2018. Minnesota has also won those games since 2018 by an average of 10.7PPG. The Gophers are also 19-11 SU when coming off a loss their last 30. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule than Ohio State who we feel is overrated and played a weaker schedule. The Gophers two losses this season came at two top ranked venues in Illinois and Wisconsin. Between those two losses the Gophers beat three quality foes in Saint Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota is 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State has a pair of losses on their resume too, at Purdue and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes best win this season was at home against Rutgers. OSU has better efficiency rating but that is a byproduct of a weaker schedule. Minnesota has beaten this team two straight times and did so rather handily. Great spot to bet them here. |
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01-01-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets –4.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Love the scheduling dynamics to play on Denver here and against Phoenix. The Suns have gotten off to a fantastic start this season at 4-1 and have picked up where they left off last season in the Bubble with an 8-0 run. But this is not an ideal situation for them as they played last night and are playing their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they are playing in the higher altitude of Denver tonight which is never a good thing for unrested teams. The Nuggets meanwhile are home, rested AND coming off a loss in their previous game. Denver is off to a very disappointing 1-3 start this season, 2 of those losses coming at home. The Nuggets are 65-20 SU their last 85 home games with an average margin of victory of +8PPG. When facing an opponent that is unrested the Nuggets are 28-15 SU their last 43. Off a loss Denver is 44-28 their last 72 games. Denver has beaten this Suns team 5 straight and make it six in a row here. |
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01-01-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arkansas Little Rock -4 over Texas Arlington, 5 PM ET - Sun Belt action tips off for both teams with UALR looking to repeat as Champions after a 15-5 conference record a year ago. The Trojans return their 7 top scorers from a year ago but have largely underachieved this season with 3 straight spread losses. But that recent trend has affected the number and we get the opportunity to buy low with UALR. In their last game the Trojans lost to Missouri State as they dressed just 8 players and had to finish the game with 4 on the floor. The players that missed that game on Dec 21 because of Covid protocols are expected back here. The Trojans have beaten UTA four straight times on this floor. Arlington returns some sophomores and juniors to this team and have some juco transplants, but they were still 7th in the Sun Belt a year ago. UTA is on a 3-game winning streak but they came against D2 schools. Arkansas Little Rock will be properly motivated here to start conference play and will hold a decisive advantage on the boards with a big front line going against a smaller lineup for UTA. |
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12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 141-145 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We like to bet on elite teams off a bad loss which is the case in this setting Wednesday as Brooklyn is off a pair of losses and face an unbeaten Hawks team. That 3-0 Atlanta record has kept this line in check, and we will take advantage of a soft number here. The Nets lost in Charlotte two games ago then rested Kyrie and KD in an OT loss to Memphis. The Nets with their pair of “mega-stars” are a team capable of flipping the switch on any given night and in their first two games when motivated they blew out Golden State and Boston. As we mentioned, Atlanta has gotten off to that perfect 3-0 start, but the wins have come against Detroit, Chicago and Memphis who have a combined 2-9 SU record. Yes, the Hawks have improved their roster, but this is still a team that had a negative road differential of minus-13.4PPG during the regulars season a year ago, which was the worst number in the NBA. Brooklyn gets an easy double-digit win here. |
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12-28-20 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 9 PM ET - We think the oddsmakers had the correct number when they opened the Nuggets minus 9 here but since public money has forced the line down to the current number. At the end of last season, the Denver Nuggets were being talked about as possible title contenders with Jokic and Murray playing at a very high level. The Nuggets have gotten off to an 0-2 start with an OT loss to Sacramento and then a beatdown by the Clippers who were playing with revenge from last season’s playoffs. Denver was 26-11 SU at home last season before Covid hit with an average point differential of +4.2PPG. This is not the same Houston Rockets team we saw last year. James Harden is back, but for how long? Houston’s next three best players are not on this current trip as Wall, Cousins and Gordon are home in Covid protocols. The Rockets played well in the opener against Portland but are in a bad spot here. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series by 7 or more points. Denver was 23-13 SU off a loss last season and at 0-2 they’ll play with a little more motivation here. Lay it. |
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12-28-20 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 56-81 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota, 8 PM ET - Why is Michigan State favored on the road after they just lost to Wisconsin and the Gophers are off an upset win of Iowa? Not only is Minnesota coming off that huge win over the #4 Hawkeyes, but they have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers next. Granted, MSU is still a big-name opponent but they have lost two straight and we guarantee the Gophers have noticed. Michigan State is 64-23 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-11 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency ratings but MSU has a slight advantage offensively and they’ve faced a tougher schedule. Minnesota is 3-2 SU their last five as a home dog but they can’t capture the energy from their home crowd in the current Covid setting. The favorite has covered 7-straight in this series and the Spartans in a desperate situation make it 8 in a row. |
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12-27-20 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, Sunday 7 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Pelicans here as the Spurs are off a game last night with the Raptors while the Pels were home resting. San Antonio has jumped out to a 2-0 start but now face a Pelicans team off a loss in Miami and rested. The Spurs are 9-13 SU their last 22 when playing without rest. You would think the storied franchise of San Antonio would thrive as an underdog but that is not the case. Since 2018 the Spurs are 25-27-1 ATS as a dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.8PPG. New Orleans is an up-and-comer in the West and have several pieces in place to make a strong run at a playoff berth. It starts with Zion Williamson who was on restricted minutes last year but is a full go this season. Add in All-Star Ingram, two great perimeter defensive guards in Bledsoe and Ball and a rim protector in Adams and you have a solid foundation. The play here is New Orleans minus the points. |
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12-27-20 | Canisius v. Monmouth -5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks! |
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12-26-20 | Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Pacers have enough talent on their roster to be a threat in the East this season, especially with Oladipo back to full strength. The Pacers were just a -7.5-point favorite at home over the Knicks who aren’t much worse than this Bulls team and Indy beat New York by 14. The Bulls lost their season opener to the Hawks by 20, who expect to be better this season, but still aren’t at the Pacers level. Last season the Bulls were 27th in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.067 points per possession while Indiana was 19th at 1.100PPP. Chicago was in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency last season ranking 12th but Indiana was even better yet at 6th. Chicago had a negative point differential of -3.1PPG overall last season which was one of the 8 worst numbers in the league. Indiana beat the Bulls 4 times last season, all by more than this spread and three of which were by 9+ points. Lay the short number with the Pacers. |
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12-25-20 | Nets -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, Friday 5PM ET Let’s be up front on this. Our computer analytics don’t have a lot of data on this game considering Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are taking the court together for just the second time this season. We can still accurately predict this game based on both teams’ openers though. With 30+ years’ experience handicapping the NBA we know a good team when we see one. In fact, we predicted the Nets to win it all in 2021. The young Nets played extremely well in the Bubble last season with several breakout players stepping up into bigger roles. Even without Durant and Kyrie this team was going to be a playoff team this season. Brooklyn beat this same Celtics team twice last year without KD or Kyrie. Brooklyn had 20 turnovers in their games against Golden State and still won by 26-points. We expect them to clean that part of their game up here against a Celtics team they would love to send a message to early in the season. Boston is off a HUGE win over the Bucks with Tatum banking in a 3-pointer with .04 seconds left in the game. The Celtics have depth concerns already and will be without Kemba Walker here. Last season the Nets were 15-21 SU on the road with an average road differential of minus -2.9PPG (again without KD, Kyrie). This game will have a little extra meaning for Kyrie (former Celtic) and the Nets who are considered the Celtics “little brother” in the East. The oddsmaker clearly have bought into the Nets as this line is nearly the same as the Bucks number in their first game against Boston. |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State! |
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12-23-20 | Illinois -4 v. Penn State | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here. |
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12-22-20 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win. |
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12-14-20 | Nevada -3.5 v. San Diego | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss. |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat +7.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET The Heat got back into this series with a win in Game 3 and we feel that confidence carries over to another extremely competitive game here. The Heat got a monster game out of Jimmy Butler who scored 40-points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 13 assists. Another key factor to the wins was the balanced scoring by the entire Heat team, which has been a staple in this postseason. Miami had five players score in double-digits including Kelly Olynyk (17) who has given them another viable scoring option. If we use the full season as a baseline, we know the Lakers were a below average 3-point shooting team (ranked 21st) at 35%. In Game 3 we saw the Lakers hit just 33% of their 3-point attempts and shoot a more average overall 43% from the field. That was a better indicator of what they should shoot, and it resulted in a much closer game with the Heat making more plays down the stretch. The Lakers are not a great team as a favorite in this price range at 6-4 ATS nor is their 14-8 SU record off a loss overwhelming. In fact, the Lakers average win margin off a loss this season is just +2.6PPG which isn’t enough to get a cover in this game. The Heat may get some help and add to their depth with Bam Adebayo or Dragic back for this game. Both are listed as questionable, but it sounds likely they’ll have Bam. There is a reason that Vegas has dropped this line 2-points compared to the last game and yet money and tickets are coming in on L.A. Bet the Heat in a close win or loss. |
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09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Miami Heat +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET Despite the Heat's lower seed to start the Playoffs, it’s evident these two teams are playing the best basketball of all NBA teams and deserving of this Finals entry. Miami and Los Angeles are the top two teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the postseason. The one great equalizer of this year’s bizarre Playoffs has been the neutral floor and we feel that levels the playing field for the young Miami Heat. The intensity, pressure, and atmosphere of playing on the road in Los Angeles is eliminated and gives this Heat team a legitimate shot to win this Championship. Miami will steal a victory in Game 1 for several reasons. The Heat matchup well with L.A. as Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala can all defend LeBron and Bam Adebayo can match up against Anthony Davis. Since 2013, Butler and Crowder have held LeBron to 42.2% shooting and below while Iggy is a notorious LBJ stopper. LeBron is leading all players in assists in the postseason but also in turnovers. Miami has a solid edge offensively with diversity as six players average double-digit scoring, four are scoring over 16.5PPG. On any given night it can be anyone for Miami which is extremely hard to defend. In comparison, the Lakers only have three players averaging 10+ points and rely heavily on LeBron and AD who average 26+. While Playoff Rondo has been great, we’re not really sure where the Lakers can turn to if LeBron and AD are limited while Miami has more scoring options. The Lakers have already lost two Game 1’s in a series and are notorious slow starters. Without the pressure we like the young Heat in Game 1. |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Denver Nuggets +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET If any team in the Bubble can pull of a dramatic come from behind series win it’s the “Cardiac Kids” from Denver. The Nuggets have already survived 3-1 deficits in the playoffs and one of those came against the Clippers who were favored to win it all. If a few bounces of the ball or calls by the officials had gone the other way in this series, it could very likely be 3-1 in Denver’s favor. That’s a testament to just how well they’ve played the Lakers in this series. Anthony Davis have been by far and away the best Laker in the playoffs as he leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks but he did tweak an ankle in the last game, and despite finishing the game, looked a little gimpy afterwards. If AD isn’t 100% the Lakers don’t have the depth to overcome his loss. The Nuggets MUST get some contributions on the offensive end from someone other than Jokic and Murray and Michael Porter Jr. is that guy. In Game 4 Porter Jr. scored 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting in just 20 minutes. Yes, he’s a liability on defense but coach Malone has to live with that for the trade off of instant scoring. Denver is a respectable 23-12 SU off a loss this season and have won those games by an average of +3PPG. The Nuggets extend this series with an outright win on Saturday. (Small bet on the moneyline too) |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Friday 8:30PM ET It’s do-or-die time for Boston and we feel they respond with a double-digit win in this elimination game. Has Miami beaten Boston or have the Celtics beaten themselves? The Celtics committed 19 turnovers in Game 4 and have averaged 15.75 TO’s per game in the series. That is uncharacteristic for this team that averaged the 6th fewest TO’s in the league in the regular season at 13.6. The Celtics continue to shoot it well and have been better in the series in their EFG% percentage overall and even in Game 4 when they hit 48% from the field while Miami hit 44%. The difference for the Heat was incredible shooting night by Milwaukee native Tyler Herro. Tyler is going to be a good pro and is a capable scorer when he gets it going as I can attest to first-hand having coached against him numerous times in his youth. Boston will have a defensive answer for him tonight and put the onus on another Heat to pick up the scoring slack. Don’t you find it strange that the team up 3-1 in this series is still an underdog? Boston is a respectable 19-11 SU off a loss and we’ll back them one more time here. |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 4 Wednesday 8:30 PM ET We are going to side with Boston again in this critical Game 4 as a win here gets this series to 2-2 and turns it into the best of three. The Celtics in large part have outplayed the Heat in all three games but didn’t close out the first two games of the series. In Game 1 the Celtics were +12 going into 4th and faltered down the stretch. In Game 2 the Celts were up 13 at half and collapsed in the 3rd quarter. In Game 3 they led coast to coast in a comfortable win. Boston has Shot 50% and 48% last two games and the return of Gordan Hayward certainly helped with the late game rotations. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and have a great straight up record off a loss, but Boston has been the better team for better part of all three games and are still in a desperate situation. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 5-7 ATS record when getting +4.5 or less points. Boston has an edge when it comes to shooting and can match the Heat defensively so we will go with the better team down 1-2 in the series. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30PM ET As we mentioned in our Game 1 wager on the Lakers, they have benefitted from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. Fatigue was the very obvious in the opener as the Nuggets were sloppy with the basketball, didn’t win the 50/50 balls and looked slower than the Lakers who scored 16 fast break points. The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 9 of eleven playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. Los Angeles led by 27-points in Game 1 and the final margin of 12 does not do justice to how dominating a win it was for L.A. I was surprised this line didn’t come out higher than it did considering the Clippers were favored by as many as 9.5-points in their series against the Nuggets. L.A. can matchup with the Nuggets at every position, but the Nuggets can’t contain Anthony Davis. We will lay the points again with Los Angeles. |
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09-19-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 3 Saturday We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss essentially ends this series with them down 0-2 already. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-11 SU record, 6-2 their last eight. Boston lost two straight games in the Raptors series then bounced back to win 2 of three so we know they’re capable of getting back into this series with a win here. Boston shot well in the last game and hit 50% from the field in Game 2 after a poor shooting night in Game 1. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 4-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. With a 2-0 lead the Heat may relax a little in this one and leave the door open for the Celtics to get a win and cover. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7 over Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET The Lakers have benefited from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. How much do the Nuggets have in their tanks against a well-rested Lakers team? The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 8 of ten playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. The Nuggets have captured the attention and hearts of the public and are over-valued in this opening game. We are pulling for a great series here but feel the Lakers get a big win in the opener. |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtic -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday 7PM ET We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss puts them in too deep a hole to get out of. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-10 SU record, 6-1 their last seven. The Celtics led by double-digits going into the fourth then couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch in the 4th quarter and OT. Two of Boston’s big guns had horrible shooting nights as Tatum and Walker combined for 5 of 21 from the 3-point line. Expect a much better outing as Tatum shot over 40% from downtown this season, while Walking hit over 38%. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 3-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, Tuesday 9PM ET We are value bettors and this line has us on the Clippers in this Game 7. The previous numbers on games in this series have had the Clippers favored by -8.5-points and line drop has us on them again here. Is there a better big game player in the NBA than Kawhi Leonard? We don’t think so. The Clippers have blown 16 and 19-point leads in the last two games and we don’t see this veteran team blowing another one in this elimination game. Granted, we love this Denver team and the heart they play with but the situation and pressure is magnified tonight and we don’t see the young Nuggets pulling off another upset. LA is 24-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-8 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We mentioned this the other day but the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +14PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. |
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09-13-20 | Clippers -8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Denver Nuggets, Sunday 1:05 PM ET - We are going to keep this analysis a little shorter than normal with football in full swing but the pick here is the LA Clippers. The Clippers just watched the Lakers end their series against the Rockets and will do the same to the Nuggets Sunday. LA is 24-5 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-7 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We don’t anticipate that happening again here with a veteran team. Denver got 26-points from Jamal Murray in Game 5 after struggling to score in the previous two games but don’t expect a repeat performance here. The Clippers have multiple defenders at Murray which then puts a huge scoring onus on Nikola Jokic. The nail in the coffin for us in this wager is the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +15PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals |
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09-08-20 | Heat -3 v. Bucks | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30PM ET |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP but against Houston in Game 1 of this series they hit just 42% of their FG attempts and scored 97-points. LeBron looked completely disinterested and the team couldn’t buy a 3-pointer as they hit 11 of 38 from beyond the arc. Off that horrible showing the Lakers will rebound here with a much better effort. Los Angeles was 12-8 SU off a loss this season with 8 of those wins coming on the road which is essentially the case here in the Bubble. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been better in the Playoffs allowing just 1.059 points per possession. Houston surprisingly played really well in the opener after a grueling 7-game series against the Thunder, but the numbers suggest they don’t play as well in this Game 2. Houston allowed 115PPG in the regular season this year which was 22nd out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Rockets allowed 50PPG in the paint this season which ranked them 23rd in the league while the Lakers were 2nd in the league in scoring in the paint at over 52PPG. Los Angeles will look to pound the ball inside against the Rockets in Game 2 and take advantage of a front line of Davis, McGee and Howard. Frank Vogel is a great coach and will adjust here including LeBron on the block a few times and take advantage of his size in the post. Lakers bounce back here with a double-digit win. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET This Game 1 situation is remarkably like the Clipper/Nuggets series as this Los Angeles team has been off since Aug 29th while the Rockets are off a grueling 7-game series with OKC and have little in the tank for this game. The Lakers took care of a Portland team that was in the same boat as the Rockets are now, exhausted and off a demanding series of games, so do not expect a close game in this opener. After losing Game 1 versus Portland the Lakers ripped off 4 straight wins by 23, 8, 20 and 9-points. Houston was taken to seven games against OKC and needed a last second defensive play (yes, I said defensive) from James Harden to preserve the win. Off that win expect a letdown here. There was some concern about the Lakers offense in the NBA restart as they had the second worst offensive efficiency numbers in the 8 Bubble games, but the Playoffs have been a different story. In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season while Houston was 14th but the Rockets have been better in the restart. LA is 14-6 SU this season when playing with 2+ days rest while the Rockets are 6-9 SU when at a disadvantage in rest and those losses have come by an average of -7.1PPG. The rested Lakers have the edge in this opener and our model predicts a 14-point win. |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET At first glance you would think this number is way too high but in reality, it isn’t, especially given the circumstances. The Nuggets are in a tough spot here having just played a physically and mentally draining 7-game series against the Jazz. Denver was down 1-3 to Utah, then won three in a row which were all tight games. Jamal Murray was sensational in the series with 50, 42, 50 and 17 points in the final four games but he also logged over 40 minutes in each of those. Nuggets All-Star center Jokic also played more than his season average in minutes in the series and now on one day rest they face a Clippers team that has been off since Sunday. After a small scare in the first few gams of their series against the Mavs the Clippers took care of business by winning Games 5 and 6 by 43 and 14 points, respectively. In fact, their four wins over Dallas all came by 8 or more points which is obviously close to tonight’s spread. The Clippers are solid when they have a rest advantage over their opponents with a 28-18 SU record the past two seasons. How important is rest you ask? There are only 10 teams in the league that do not have winning records when playing with two or more days rest the past two seasons. These two teams met in the Bubble with the Clippers winning by 13. During the regular season L.A. had two more victories over Denver, each by double-digits (29 & 10). These two teams have remarkably similar numbers offensively in the Bubble and Playoffs, but the Clippers hold a HUGE advantage defensively where the Nuggets rank dead last in defensive efficiency ratings in both the Playoffs and Bubble. |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Milwaukee Bucks -5 over Miami Heat, 6:30PM ET The computers and numbers have us on the Bucks tonight in a bounce back situation, off a loss and desperate for a win. Milwaukee has been “money” off a loss with a 13-5 SU record this season and a 35-9 SU run since the start of 2018. In the last two years when coming off a loss the Bucks average margin of victory is +10.7PPG and they cover the spread by nearly +3PPG. Both teams shot well in the opener, but the Heat were plus +5 in offensive rebounds and had 3 less turnovers. Jimmy Butler had a huge game for Miami with 40-points on 13 of 20 shooting while making 12 of 13 free throw attempts. League MVP could not match those numbers 18-points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists but turned it over 6 times and missed 8 free throws. The Greek Freak is a fierce competitor and will bounce back here with a huge stat line in Game 2. Last year in the playoffs in a similar situation the Bucks lost the first game of the series against the Boston Celtics then bounced back in Game 2 to win by 21-points. In the first round against Orlando the Bucks lost Game 1 then beat the Magic by 15 in the second game. Milwaukee was the number one or best defensive efficiency team in the NBA in the regular season allowing just 1.029 points per possession and Miami produced 1.150PPG in Game 1 which was an aberration based on season statistics. Expect a return to normal here and the Bucks get a double-digit win in Game 2. |
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08-31-20 | Rockets -5 v. Thunder | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET With this being an elimination game, you would expect most bettors to back the Thunder and the dog here but not us. The Rockets are a completely different team when they have dynamic guard Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and even though his numbers were not significant in the Rockets Game 4 win, he still had an impact. Westbrook’s ability to get to the rim and in driving lanes forces defenders in slightly instead of being in the gaps which allows Rocket shooters another split second to get a shot off. Expect more minutes and production from Westbrook tonight against the Thunder. OKC thought they found a way to contain James Harden with rookie Luguentz Dort defending him in Games 3 & 4 and causing problems for the Rockets scoring machine. In Game 5 the Rockets adjusted, hit Dort with better angles on screens which freed up Hardin who scored 31-points on just 15 shots. Dort then proved to be a liability on the offensive end of the floor where he missed 13 of 16 field goal attempts. The Rockets have been significantly better defensively in the playoffs and the Bubble allowing less points per possession than they did during the regular season while maintaining an offensive efficiency that is averaging 1.118PPP against OKC. We recognize the Thunder have solid support as an underdog and when off a loss, but the Rockets have too many scoring options for the Thunder to overcome. |
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08-29-20 | Magic +13.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic +13.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 3:30 PM ET - Can the Magic win this game today? Sure, but will they, no. They can however cover the spread with the generous number. After winning Game #1 the Magic have been beaten by the Bucks by 15, 14 and 15 points. In the last game of this series the Bucks won by 15-points but needed to outscore the Magic by 12 in the 4th quarter. Milwaukee had the best overall average margin of victory this season at +10.1PPG which is a tremendous number, but it is still not enough to cover this spread. In the eight Bubble “regular” season games the Bucks average point differential was 0.3PPG and in this series their MOV is 8PPG. Orlando had a negative point differential of minus -1PPG and only 14 of their 43 losses this season have been by 15 or more points. The Bucks haven’t been great as a double-digit favorite this season with an 18-19 ATS record and given the circumstances they could be resting starters late in this game which would make for a potential back-door cover. Grab the points with Orlando. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET The Clippers are off of a poor showing and a last second loss in Game 4 to the Mavs and are now tied 2-2 in this first round series. NOBODY has been better than the Clippers when coming off a loss this season with a 21-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). The Mavericks have played well in the series and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. His buzzer beating step back 3-pointer is only the start of his legendary status in the NBA for years to come. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 36% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 9 of their last ten when coming off a loss. We are betting Paul George finally shows up and Kawhi Leonard shoulders the burden in this crucial game for the franchise. |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -6 over Indiana Pacers, 6:30PM ET Sometimes when it looks like two even teams on paper and all the stats are equal, but one team continues to win, it is a match up issue. That is clearly the case in this series as the Heat have beaten the Pacers three straight and four of five in the Bubble. The only game the Pacers won was a throw away game as the seedings were set. Miami has a +10PPG margin in the three wins and we cannot imagine them not winning again by double-digits in this elimination game. Going back before the break the Heat are 6-1 SU this season against the Pacers, covering five of the seven. Miami holds edges in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in this series and have gotten balanced scoring throughout this first round match up. In Game #3 the Heat had four players score 20+ points, six in double-digits. Indiana doesn’t have as many scoring options as Miami and just can’t keep pace with the Heat. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Heat win again. |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +3.5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET If you’ve been following ASA for any length of time then you know we are numbers bettors not teams bettors which has us on Denver here today. With no home court advantage and all the games being played on a neutral court the lines shouldn’t fluctuate too much from game to game but this series has seen a significant move. The Nuggets were favored by -4.5 points in Game 1 of this series but are now a 3-point dog here. That’s a huge swing in value and has us on Denver here. The Nuggets were blown out in Game 3 and now trail 1-2 in this series which makes this a desperate situation for Denver. Denver has been fantastic when coming off a loss this season with a 19-9 SU record and are 39-23 SU in that role the past two years. Since the restart the Jazz have an average point differential of minus -3.1PPG which is barely better than the Nuggets -4.8PPG and clearly not a big enough separation to cover this spread. The Dog has covered 4 of the last six in this rivalry. Grab the points! |
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08-21-20 | Clippers -5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET All the experts and oddsmakers had the Clippers as one of the three favorites along with the Bucks and Lakers to win it all in 2020 and they were not wrong. This team has been built for a Championship and now they are off a poor showing and a loss in Game 2 to the Mavs. That’s very important for our wager today as the Clippers are the BEST team in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 20-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). Great players respond when their egos have been bruised which will be the case Friday for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who didn’t expect to be 1-1 in this series right now. The Mavericks played well in the first two games and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 45% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. We haven’t even mentioned the value in the line on this game as the Clippers have dropped a few points from the first two games. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 8 of their last nine when coming off a loss. Easy call with L.A. |
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08-20-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Thurs 9PM ET The Blazers captured Game 1 by 7-points winning 100-93 and now lead the series 1-0 which makes this a must win for the Lakers. The oddsmakers have fallen into the Blazer trap here and have posted a number that reflects public opinion of Portland. The Lakers offense in the Bubble has been horrendous and is showed again in Game 1 of this series when L.A. attempted 18 more field goals in the opener, had 5 more total rebounds and were +12 in offensive boards but still lost. The Lakers shot just 35% against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as Portland ranks 28th on the season in defensive efficiency ratings and has been worse in the Bubble allowing 1.209 points per possession. The Lakers made just 5 of 32 3-pointers in Game 1 and shot just 35% for the game which is drastically lower than their season average of 47.8% which was best in the NBA. In other words, let’s bet what the “norm” is instead of the abnormal results of Game 1. It was apparent to us as we watched the game how deliberate the Blazers were which was not how they played during the regular season (13th in pace of play). Portland was taxed physically and dictated a slower tempo with the Lakers knowing if they could keep it close, they have more playmakers at the end of the game and could steal a win. The fatigue of their pre-playoff run was obvious to us and will play a bigger part in this outcome. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers have not been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 10-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. The Lakers Championship run hangs in the balance, and you can bet LeBron and AD show up here. |
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08-18-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Tues 8PM ET Noise! There has been a lot of noise surrounding the Blazers and their run in the Bubble to make the playoffs. There has also been a lot of talk about how poorly the Lakers have played in the restart and we are betting they’ve heard it and respond here. Let us start with the Blazers who expended a ton of energy to get here and played in several big, emotional games to capture the 8th seed. Damian Lillard has been sensational, and the Blazers offense has put up some impressive numbers in the Bubble but that changes here. The Lakers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rankings in the NBA allowing just 1.063 points per possession. That is significantly better than the Blazers defense that is 28th in the league in D.E.F.F. Much has been made of the Lakers struggle on the offensive end of the floor in the Bubble games as it’s been atrocious but on the entire season they are 11th in offensive efficiency and much better than they’ve showed in these meaningless 8-games which had no bearing on their seeding. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers haven’t been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 9-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. This will be a statement game for the Lakers and we predict a double-digit win. |
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08-13-20 | Mavs v. Suns -7 | Top | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Phoenix Suns -7 over Dallas Mavericks, 4PM ET How about the swing on the line in this matchup as these same two teams met earlier in the Bubble and the Mavericks were a 6-point favorite but are now a 7-point dog. But the situation for both teams is drastically different at this point in time as the Mavs are locked into the 7th seed and Phoenix still has a shot to get in. To put this as delicately as possible, Dallas would be stupid to play their Superstars here or other starters as health is key to make a long playoff run. We don’t expect to see Doncic or Porzingis for the Mavs against this red-hot Suns team Thursday. Phoenix is 7-0 in the Bubble and have played incredible basketball in the restart with Devon Booker leading the way. Phoenix has an average point differential of +11.3PPG in the Bubble which is the best overall number in the league and has won five of their seven games by 7 or more points. Are we betting a bad line here? No given the circumstances. |
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08-12-20 | Pacers v. Rockets -8 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -8 over Indiana Pacers, 4PM ET You know the old saying, “when something looks to good to be true, it isn’t”. That’s the case with this line on the Rockets vs. Pacers game as the line is much higher than it should be and is attracting public money on Indiana. In true contrarian fashion we will bet opposite and play on the Rockets. We feel the Rockets desperately want to hold on to the 4 or 5 seed and avoid the two Los Angeles teams and the red-hot Nuggets in the first round. A win here essentially locks up the 4/5 seed for Houston. The Rockets played yesterday and were embarrassed by the Spurs with James Harden on the bench. The NBA’s leading scorer is expected to suit up today for the Rockets and can literally carry this team like he’s done so often in the past. The Pacers have several starters listed as doubtful today with Turner, Oladipo, Brogdon questionable and TJ Warren listed as out. That tells us the Pacers aren’t as interested in this game as they are Friday’s against the Miami Heat who they will likely face in the first round of the Playoffs. The Rockets hold slight advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the Bubble games and will squeak out a double-digit win here. |
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08-10-20 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +5.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET This is an interesting number considering how well Denver has looked in the Bubble games compared to how bad the Lakers have played. Let us examine this number a little closer. The Lakers were just favored by minus -5.5 points against the Pacers and Thunder in recent games and lost both to teams’ inferior to the current Nuggets. The Washington Wizards have not won a game in the Bubble and have been horrendous offensively with a 1.031 points per possession efficiency rating. Believe it or not, the Lakers have been WORSE than the Wizards on the offensive end with an OEFF of .977PPP. That can’t be said about a Denver offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the five Bubble games at 1.176 points per possession. The Nuggets have gotten a huge scoring boost from Michael Porter Jr. who is averaging over 25PPG and 10RPG in the Bubble. They also got Jamal Murray back from injury who paid immediate dividends in the Nuggets win over Utah with 23-points, 12-rebounds and 8-assists. And we haven’t even gotten to Nikola Jokic who continues to play at a very high level. The Lakers are 2-4 SU in their six games in the restart and are mainly concerned about staying healthy for the playoffs. The Lakers season point differential is +6.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. In the Bubble games they have a negative differential of -7.2PPG second to last of the teams still playing. This Denver team is going to be a dangerous out in the Playoffs and the Lakers just aren’t engaged at this point in time. Easy call with the Underdog here. |
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08-09-20 | Spurs +3 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here. |
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08-08-20 | Bucks v. Mavs +5 | Top | 132-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright. |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -3 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here. |
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08-06-20 | Clippers -4 v. Mavs | Top | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers. |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win. |
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08-02-20 | Kings v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 116-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up. |
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08-01-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-110 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one. |
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07-31-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 135-140 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused. |
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07-30-20 | Jazz +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here. |
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03-11-20 | North Carolina -3 v. Syracuse | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech. We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday. This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season. They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did. UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy. Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury. Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time. Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists. They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season. UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange. North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT. They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome. We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally. Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one. The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech). They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer. UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road. Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here. North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win. |
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03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy! |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010. This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year. They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season. We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason. It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney. New life for this team. They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend. UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining. This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep. Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January. Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney. Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th. Both are back and healthy. Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries. This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season. Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters. Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to. We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes. This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday). These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77. The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road. UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses. Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road). We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0. Lay the points with the Tar Heels. |
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03-09-20 | Green Bay +5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court. This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay. We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games. That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63. Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney. We think that absolutely favors Green Bay. They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team. The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th. They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight. So plenty of rest between games while still playing. NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd. Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days. Not ideal in our opinion. These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9. The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up. They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th). The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one. UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season. The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense. They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting. In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7. In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference. When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits. The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now. Take the points. |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster. |
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03-08-20 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -3 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one. In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament. In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here. The physical toll is just too much to overcome. They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much. Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games. Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”. Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes. We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness. Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired. There is no way around that. They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games. After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game. Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense. The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s). Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season. The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo. They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes. Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State. These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home. The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot. Lay it with Bradley. |
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03-07-20 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6 | Top | 44-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home. These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point. Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss. For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago. Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game). We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings. The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58. In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way! The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year. We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%. They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once. MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season. Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points. Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3. Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play. MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do. This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits. |
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers +1 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night! |
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03-06-20 | VCU v. Davidson -4 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid. Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington. VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter. There is a good chance both sit again tonight. Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season. They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples. In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference). Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league). The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate. The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally. We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team. Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch. Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win. This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here. VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to. In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games. Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog. With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one. |
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03-05-20 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out. However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend. Winning both would probably get them in. Just a huge home stand for Memphis. Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here. The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on. Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so. In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry. That simply almost never happens. Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not. Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight. Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble. The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday. As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %. They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier. To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time. Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc. Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road. The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around. |
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03-04-20 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 63-69 | Push | 0 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games. In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone. Win your conference tourney and you’re in. That’s not the case this week. In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State). KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58. It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired. Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game. We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort. With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play. They have absolutely nothing to play for here. They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play. They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward. The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12). This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation. They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game. Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12). OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here. |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright. |
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03-03-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night. The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here. Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington. Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home. We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did. This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game. They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding. They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play. One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed. They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed. Tonight they have nothing to play for. The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts. This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons. Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here. Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons. They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013. Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion. Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense. They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%. The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games. Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale. This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers. We like Georgia State here. |
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03-02-20 | Jazz v. Cavs +10 | Top | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them. |
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03-01-20 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville -12 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech. The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half. The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles. The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech. Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense. The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66. A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today. The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia. It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year. Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53. VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3. That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss. They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits. Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs. We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation. They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago. The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9. They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots. It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG. That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games. The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke. In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA. Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG. Lay it with Louisville. |
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02-29-20 | Magic v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +4 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride. Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season. That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining. They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC. Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %. They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast. The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion. They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road. Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play. They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play. Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6. The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far. The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games. Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well. If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. |
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02-29-20 | Loyola-Chicago v. Bradley -3 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale. With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special. On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday. Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference. Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here. If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points. They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%. They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams. That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%. Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good. While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games). The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier. When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites. The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley. It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe. We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win. |
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02-28-20 | Kings v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston. |
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02-28-20 | Georgia Southern +5 v. Georgia State | Top | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game. From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss. We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game. State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11. Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play. Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney. The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%. He missed the last 2 games due to injury. Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team. Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession. This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less. This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places. We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins. |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them. You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that. However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost. Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State. The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place. If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit. NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year. In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77. In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73. Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for. On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury. He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game. His status is up in the air for Thursday. South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league. Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot. If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play. Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover. |
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02-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -6 | Top | 81-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country. They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game. That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month. Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG). The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him. Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points. Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts. During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have. Impressive run to say the least. During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep. Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable. The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10. Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points. The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late. UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points. We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much. Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition. 40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league. The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned. Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games. Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency). That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here. We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. |
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02-26-20 | Utah v. Stanford +7.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up. They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8. Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before. The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points. As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch. They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season. The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land. That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home. This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT. Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win. The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games. With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. |
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02-26-20 | Mavs v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points! |
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02-25-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes. Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow. After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road. This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU. They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January. Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game. Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State. The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams. We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home. We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday. The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor. Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State. The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner. These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home. That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there. In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc. Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play. We like OU to get this much needed win tonight. |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -8 | Top | 131-111 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points. |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65. The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance. That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally. Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less. We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up. Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting. We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight. FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less. The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play. That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference). FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards. That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses). The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak. They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17). They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke. This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT). The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. |
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02-23-20 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them. While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such. Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree. Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5. The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State. Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game. A lucky might be an understatement. MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5. Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1). The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them. OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot. When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12. OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3. They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe. Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better. At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s. Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today. The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home. Ohio State is the play. |
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02-22-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5 | Top | 103-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels. However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home. They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games. They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou. A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining. Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home. In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG. All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play. Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road. Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%. If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here. Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games. We like Ole Miss to win and cover here. |