Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-24 | Washington +5 v. Michigan | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -113 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +4.5 over Michigan, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Washington is a perfect 3-0 SU as an underdog this year with outright wins over Texas, Oregon, and Oregon State in that role. Dating back to the beginning of last year, the Huskies are 5-0 SU as an underdog. We think they have a great shot to upset Michigan on Monday and if they do lose, we expect it to be close and were getting +4.5 as a buffer. Nobody has been able to stop Washington’s passing game this season (#1 in the nation averaging 358 YPG through the air) and we don’t think Michigan will be any different. While the Wolverines defense has fantastic numbers, the fact is they’ve played a number of very weak offenses this year with 8 of the 13 offenses they faced during the regular season ranked outside the top 100. They’ve only faced 2 passing offenses ranked inside the top 50, Maryland (21st) and Ohio State (22nd), and both of those teams gave the Michigan defense problems throwing for 247 and 271 yards respectively in 2 close games (both decided by a TD or less). Now they face the best passing offense in the nation and the key for Washington will be keeping QB Penix upright which we think they’ll do. The Huskies offensive line has allowed a grand total of 11 sacks the entire season (4th best in the nation) and didn’t allow a single sack vs a very good Texas defensive front last week. Michigan was able to generate massive pressure on Bama QB Milroe last week, however the Crimson Tide offensive line was a liability all season long ranking 125th in sacks per game allowed so that wasn’t surprising. Even with that pressure, Alabama was still able to push Michigan to OT before losing in semi finals. Washington doesn’t have great defensive numbers but their strength is vs the run (41st nationally) so they match up well with the Wolverines offense. Bottom line is, we think Washington has a great shot to win this game and if they lose we’re getting above key numbers 3 & 4 so also a decent chance to win in that situation as well. Take the points. |
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01-01-24 | Wisconsin v. LSU -8.5 | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
#274 ASA PLAY ON 8* LSU -8.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 12 PM ET - LSU head coach Brian Kelly stated this week that the Tigers will have everyone available for this game that played in the season final vs A&M with the exception of QB Daniels. We’ll take him at his word, although you never know during bowl season, and if that’s the case we see this LSU team winning by double digits. Wisconsin has more opt outs / transfers in this game than LSU does. The Badgers have lost 2 of their top 4 WR’s, the top RB, starting center, along with key starter at each level of their defense. Wisconsin struggled to mesh all season in their new offense under OC Longo and with the key players missing, we just don’t think they have enough on that side of the ball to keep up in this one. They finished 77th in total offense and only averaged 22 PPG this season (103rd). Without a rushing attack on Monday (RB Allen out and next RB had 300 yards rushing) they’ll be one dimensional in this game which won’t get it done. LSU doesn’t have a problem on that side of the ball. They led the nation with 46 PPG and while QB Daniels is out, his back up Nussmeier is plenty experienced. In fact Nussmeier led the Tigers in passing yards in last year’s SEC Championship game and Bowl win over Purdue so they’re not stepping down to a freshman or anything like that here. Both top WR’s, each with over 1,000 yards receiving, are slated to play along with their offensive line being in tact. The Badger defense had solid numbers this season but played a massively weak schedule of offenses in the Big 10 West. Seven of Wisconsin’s opponents this year finished the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. LSU played the much tougher schedule this season and their numbers were significantly better than Wisconsin’s with a +2.5 YPP differential (Badgers were +0.2) and a +224 point differential (Badgers were +47). We understand there will be a drop off with Nussmeier but it won’t be as much as many anticipate. LSU by double digits. |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -3.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys have big time motivation here to win one for the gipper so to speak. Wyoming’s head coach, Craig Bohl (10 years at Wyoming), has made it known he will retire after this game and he is very well liked by his players so look for a supreme effort from the Cowboys. It looks like they will have nearly everyone available here as well with the exception of 1 starting offensive lineman and 1 defensive back. Toledo, on the other hand, has lost some key parts, especially on offense, where starting QB Finn (2,600 yards passing & 560 yards rushing) has already transferred to Baylor and starting RB Boone (1400 yards rushing) is in the portal as well. Not to mention Toledo head coach Candle was rumored as a potential HC at a number of other programs and seems to be every season which has been a distraction. Speaking of Candle, he’s been a terrible bowl coach which might have something to do with his name coming up each year for openings at this time of year. Candle is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS his last 5 bowl games and Toledo was favored in 4 of those games. On top of that, the MAC was a terrible conference this season which led to Toledo having a strength of schedule ranking of 130th. The MAC bowl game blunders are also well documented as the conference has a SU bowl record of 14-55 their last 69 post season games. Rockets back up QB Gleason has some experience but this team relies heavily on the run (11th in rushing YPG) and he is not even in the same stratosphere at Finn when it comes to running the ball. This team has basically lost 2,000 yards on the ground to the transfer portal which will be nearly impossible to overcome here. The Rockets overall defensive stats look impressive but they didn’t face a single team in MAC play that was ranked higher than 79th in total offense and 7 of their conference opponents ranked 100th or lower in total offense. Wyoming played the much tougher schedule and beat solid bowl non-conference teams Texas Tech and Appalachian State. Veteran Wyoming QB Peasley (2 year starter) had a solid season with 20 TD’s and just 5 interceptions and led the Cowboys to 84 points over their final 2 games. Wyoming is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 bowl games and we like them to win and cover this one. |
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +2.5 over Kansas State, Thursday at 5:45 PM ET - We really like the way this NC State team played down the stretch. We could argue by the end of the season this was the 2nd best team in the ACC behind FSU. The Wolfpack won 6 of their last 7 games including beating bowl teams UNC (by 19), Clemson (by 7), Miami (by 14), and Virginia Tech (by 7). The Pack also covered 6 of their last 7 games to close out the season. Their only 3 losses came at the hands of Notre Dame, Louisville, and Duke which was their only real clunker this season. Veteran QB Armstrong, transfer from UVA, lost his job midway through the season but gained it back and was terrific down the stretch completing 70% of his passes for 6 TDs (0 interceptions) over the last 3 games also adding over 200 yards rushing in those 3 games. NCSU has some opt outs in the transfer portal but the vast majority are not depth chart guys. Most of their starters are playing in this one. The same can’t be said for KSU. The Cats had a solid 8-4 season but they are missing a large amount of key guys for this one. That includes QB Will Howard (2,600 yards passing / 350 yards rushing), 2nd leading rusher Ward, and KSU’s top 2 pass catchers WR Brooks and TE Sinnott. Those 4 players alone have accounted for nearly 5,000 yards this season (passing, receiving, and rushing). On top of that, offensive coordinator Klein has also left the program to become the OC at Texas A&M. We’ll take the team that sits nearly full strength entering this game as a dog. NC state it is. |
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12-28-23 | Rutgers -2 v. Miami-FL | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
#251 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -2 over Miami FL, Thursday at 2:15 PM ET - Miami is a program that has struggled in bowl games for a few decades. They are just 2-11 both SU & ATS in bowls since 2005. The Canes seem to always have higher aspirations entering the season and when they are stuck in a lower tier bowl, they simply don’t show up. We have a strong feeling that will be the case again this year. Are the Canes happy about traveling north to colder weather and facing Rutgers in Yankee Stadium. We doubt it. They are down to their 3rd string QB Brown after starter Van Dyke transferred to Wisconsin after the season ended and back up Williams is injured. Brown picked up some minimal experience last season but did not take a single snap in a game this year. As a whole it looks like 9 or 10 Miami starters will sit this one out. Huge coaching advantage here with Rutgers Greg Schiano (5-2 in bowl games) taking on Mario Cristobal who used to be on his staff the first time around at Rutgers. While Cristobal You can guarantee the Scarlet Knights are happy to be here. This is nearly a home game for the Scarlet Knights just 50 miles away from Yankee Stadium. They were not in a bowl game last season and haven’t won in the post season since 2014 so Rutgers really wants this one. Unlike Miami, the Knights have very few opt outs including on their defense with a number of key players deciding to come back next season. A defense that ranked in the top 20 nationally and they will be facing an inexperienced QB as we mentioned. They also got word that top RB Monangia (1,100 yards rushing) will return next season giving this program lots of momentum heading into the bowl game. With potential rain and wind chills in the 40’s on Thursday afternoon, we could see Miami being a bit disinterested in this one. Rutgers is the play. |
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12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -2 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
#248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -2 over Texas A&M, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This game opened A&M favored and has flipped to OSU a small favorite. We agree with the move and still feel there is some value on the Cowboys. A&M has been decimated through opt outs, portal, and in the coaching staff. More than half the Aggies starters won’t play in this game and we’re hearing it could be more as we approach game time. That includes their top 2 QB’s who won’t play in this game leaving 3rd stringer Henderson to start under center. He’s had some experience late in the season in A&M’s last 3 games but had almost zero snaps in his previous 2 seasons at Fresno State. Head coach Jimbo Fisher was fired and OC Petrino left for Arkansas. The Aggies DC Robinson has been in charge of bowl prep and he’s leaving to be the DC at Syracuse as soon as this game is finished. Way too much upheaval for this Texas A&M team to think they’ll be fully focused on this one (players and coaches). OSU is coming off a blowout loss in the Big 12 Championship vs Texas and they lost their bowl game last year so this team is motivated to win. A win would also give them 10 wins for the 8th time in head coach Gundy’s tenure. Speaking of Gundy, he is a veteran to the bowl scene appearing in 16 previous bowl games and has been very successful with an 11-5 SU record. They have almost nobody in the portal of significance and the Cowboys are all in here. A&M just 3-3 their last 3 games and their wins were over Abilene Christian (FCS), Miss State (non bowl team), and South Carolina (non bowl team). In fact, the Aggies beat ONE bowl team all season and that was Auburn way back in September and that was when A&M had everyone on board. Okie State beat solid bowl teams Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, and WVU this season and as we mentioned they will be the motivated team here. Take the Cowboys on Wednesday. |
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12-27-23 | Virginia Tech -10.5 v. Tulane | 41-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Virginia Tech -10.5 over Tulane, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - One team in this game has a ton of distractions leading up to this game (Tulane) and the other has almost none (Va Tech). Tulane’s head coach Willie Fritz has already taken the head job at Houston and won’t be on the sidelines for this game. He is taking his OC, DC, WR coach, and DL coach with him to Houston. Those assistants will coach in this game but we can’t imagine this staff is fully invested at this point. On top of that, the Green Wave will be without their starting QB Pratt, their top 3 WR’s, starting TE, along with 5 or 6 defensive starters. This team was trending down the last month and a half or so even when they were at full strength. 3 of their final 5 wins were by 3 points or less with 2 of those wins coming vs non bowl teams Tulsa and ECU. In their regular season finale they were outgained by UTSA but benefitted from 5 turnovers to pick up a win. In the AAC Championship game, a home game for Tulane, they were dominated by SMU who finished the game with a -2 turnover margin AND was without their starting QB yet still won by double digits. Va Tech has very few opt outs, a young coach in his 2nd year with the program, and they are on the rise. This is a very important game for the Hokies who were 3-8 last year in HC Pry’s first year (didn’t make a bowl game) and they’ve improved to 6-6 this year and are shooting for a winning record. The Hokies have almost every one of their key players playing in this bowl game. Virginia Tech played the tougher schedule compared to Tulane but the key numbers (YPG & YPP differential) were almost dead even. And that was with the Green Wave at full strength which we’ve stated they won’t be for this bowl game. The Hokies played 8 bowl teams this year and outgained those teams by an average of +40 YPG. Their offense was really clicking down the stretch with the exception of their game vs Louisville who has a top 15 defense. In their final 5 games (minus the Louisville game) the Hokies averaged 40 PPG. This one is in Annapolis, Maryland which is a 4 hour & 30 minute drive from Blacksburg so Virginia Tech so we look for a Hokie home crowd here. Lay it. |
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12-23-23 | Coastal Carolina v. San Jose State -8.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
#234 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -8.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We give SJSU the situational edge here as they have already played in Hawaii on this field this season rolling over the Rainbows 35-0. That means we expect this to be a business trip for the Spartans rather than a potential vacation. Coastal, on the other hand, is making their first trip to the islands so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is more of a “getaway” type situation for the Chanticleers. San Jose State starting QB Cordiero should have plenty of motivation as well returning to his home state where he played HS football and was the starting QB for Hawaii before transferring. These 2 teams are both 7-5 entering this bowl game but SJSU played the tougher schedule with all 5 losses coming vs bowl teams including Pac 12 opponents USC and Oregon State. Down the stretch the Spartans were fantastic winning 6 straight games with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Their only tight games was in the regular season finale where they beat UNLV on the road 37-31, a Rebel team that played in the MWC Championship game. Despite the fairly close final score, San Jose led that game by 20 points with just over 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Coastal Carolina has had many more opt outs in this game (19 in the transfer portal one of the highest of any bowl team) including starting QB McCall and his backup Guest. 3rd stringer Vasko, a redshirt freshman, did start their final 3 of their final 4 games when the first 2 QB’s were injured but he’s still very inexperienced compared to SJSU starter Cordiero who has thrown for 12,000 career yards and 87 TD’s. The Spartans seem to be highly motivated to get this win after finishing in a 3 way tie for the Mountain West title but were left out of the Championship game which were determined by computer rankings. “We’re going into this game and we want to win,” senior safety Tre Jenkins said. “Not even win close. We want to dominate. Especially because we just got a bad taste in our mouth not going to the (Mountain West Championship).” This SJSU offense averaged 39 PPG over their last 6 and we think they roll over a decimated Coastal Carolina team that had to make the long trip from Myrtle Beach SC to the islands. |
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12-23-23 | Utah v. Northwestern +6.5 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
#232 ASA PLAY ON 8* Northwestern +6.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Is Utah really excited to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl after spending the last 2 seasons in Pasadena competing in the Rose Bowl? We would highly doubt it. This team has much higher goals this season as they expected to compete for the Pac 12 title. The lack of excitement could be attributed to the Utes large number of players in the portal (14). The Utah coach staff had to convince QB Barnes (who is already in the portal) to stay and play in this game or they were going to have to start their 4th string QB who has attempted 10 passes in his career. Barnes was originally the 3rd string QB behind Cam Rising and Nate Johnson who were both injured this season. A weird, and not ideal, situation for the Utes having their QB having to be convinced to play in the bowl but leaving for another school as soon as it’s over. They will also be missing top WR Vele, the only player with over 300 yards receiving, along with a number of key defensive players including both starting safeties. Northwestern is thrilled to be in a bowl after finishing 1-11 last season, losing their head coach Fitzgerald right before this season, and being left for dead by most. They rallied for a 7-5 season under interim head coach Braun who has been given the head coaching job and the players love him. The Cats have almost no opt outs and played very well down the stretch winning 4 of their final 5 games with their only loss coming by 3 points vs Iowa the Big 10 West champ. All 4 of those wins at the end of the season came vs bowl teams. On the other hand, Utah lost 3 of their final 5 games and struggled to beat a Colorado team that had nothing to play for in the season finale with the Utes winning by only 6 points as 22 point favorites. That lackluster effort in their home finale might be a peak into the lack of motivation for this team late in the season. The NW offense received a big boost late in the season when starting QB Bryant returned from injury (was injured in late September) and let the Wildcats to 3 straight wins while completing over 67% of his passes in those 3 games. We like NW to have a shot at the upset here and expect a close game either way. Take the points. |
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12-23-23 | James Madison v. Air Force +2 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
#226 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +2 over James Madison, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We know Air Force is 100% all in today to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. We’re not so sure about James Madison. While JMU is playing in their first bowl game ever, they have a ton of distractions leading into this one. Their head coach Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana and won’t be around for this one. Not only that, Cignetti took a large portion of his staff with him and JMU had to turn to a number of temporary coaches simply to get them through their bowl practices. Nearly half (10) of the Dukes starters have also entered the transfer portal including QB McCloud and while many (including McCloud) are still planning on playing in this game, it will be a distraction at the very least. JMU has a very good run defense, one of the best in the nation statistically, however they’ve never faced an offense like Air Force will present. They’ve been trying to get up to speed on practice to defend the option type attack with a makeshift coaching staff as we suggested. That’s really tough to do. Air Force began the season with a perfect 8-0 record before playing poorly down the stretch losing 4 straight games. Injuries were a key part in their downfall, including starting QB Larrier who was on the shelf for 3 of those 4 losses. With a full month off since their regular season finale, the Falcons are as healthy as they have been since October including Larrier who is slated to start this game at QB. Let’s not forget when this AF team was healthy, they were an unbeaten team that has the 2nd best rushing attack in the country (276 YPG) and a defense that ranked in the top 15 in both total defense and YPP allowed. We’ll side with the small dog with a veteran coach (Troy Calhoun has coached in 12 bowl games) that has won 4 straight bowl games. Air Force gets the win on Saturday. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
#219 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams are 6-6 on the season but we feel this UCF team is undervalued and better than their record. Half of their losses this season came with starting QB Plumlee out with an injury. They were just 1-3 SU when Plumlee was sidelined and the only win during that stretch was vs an FCS team. The Knights outgained their opponents by +100 YPG on the season and even vs bowl teams they were +31 YPG. That was mainly in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Georgia Tech played in the weaker ACC and was outgained on the season. UCF had the stronger strength of schedule and had the much better key numbers overall with a +85 point differential (GT was +8), a +100 YPG differential (GT was -10) and a +1.3 YPP differential (GT was dead even). And those numbers included the games that Plumlee was on the shelf or we’d be looking at an even more lopsided situation in the stats. We’re also getting a massive strength vs weakness situation in this game in favor of the Golden Knights. They run the ball for an average of 233 YPG (4th in the nation) on 5.7 YPC (5th in the nation). Plumlee being healthy at QB is a huge part of that success. They are facing a Tech defense that allows 225 YPG rushing (131st out of 133 teams) on 5.4 YPG (130th). This game is also being played in Tampa, Florida which obviously benefits UCF. The opt outs and portals are fairly minimal on each side however 2 of the bigger transfers are on the Georgia Tech defense with their top CB and top DE out. We like UCF to win this one by at least a TD. |
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12-18-23 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 56 m | Show |
#202 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion -3 over Western Kentucky, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - This WKY beat only 1 bowl team all season long (South Florida) and now they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal including nearly their entire starting offensive line opting to move on. There is now talk that starting QB Reed may also sit this game out but nothing definitive on that yet. If it happens this line will go up so play it now at -2.5 (line as of Friday). Even when they had their entire team in tact, the Hilltoppers were 1-7 SU vs bowl teams, were outscored by an average of 12 PPG in those games and outgained by nearly 130 YPG. With all the turnover we’re not sure this team is all that excited to be here. ODU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in this bowl game and fought like crazy to get here. They played a solid schedule with 10 bowl teams and they won 4 of those games. In their home finale, a game they needed for bowl eligibility, the Monarchs trailed Georgia State 19-0 at half and fought back for a 25-24 win. They’ve only been in 2 bowl games in their history, the most recent a few years ago in 2021. We expected ODU to control the trenches in this game even before WKY lost nearly their entire offensive line. The Monarchs rushed for an impressive 183 YPG vs bowl teams and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that ranks 123rd at stopping the run and vs bowl teams they allowed 243 YPG on the ground. Meanwhile Western barely averages 100 YPG rushing and ODU’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC vs other bowl teams. Old Dominion played the tougher schedule, the 2 teams had very similar YPG & YPP differential, and the Monarchs team is more in tact right now when compared to Western Kentucky. We’ll lay the small number in this one. |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
#207 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State -3.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - NMSU has been a cover machine this season with a spread record of 10-3-1. Their head coach, Jerry Kill (former Minnesota head coach), has done a masterful job including keeping his team motivated late in the season when they really didn’t have anything to play for. The Aggies final 2 games of the season were “meaningless” so to speak as they had already locked up a spot in the CUSA Championship game and were bowl eligible. In their final 2 regular season games they beat Auburn on the road 31-10 as 24+ point underdogs. It wasn’t flukey at all as they outgained the Tigers by 200 yards and ran the ball for 213 yards on the SEC defense! The week after was a PERFECT letdown spot playing a solid Jacksonville State team with the CUSA Title game on deck and having just beaten Auburn on the road. They won that game as well never trailing and outgaining Jax St by 122 yards. Impressive to say the least. The Aggies did lose in the CUSA to an undefeated Liberty team but even in that game NMSU put up 500 total yards in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. This game is in Albuquerque so a semi home game for the Aggies who are thrilled to be here. We’re not so sure Fresno feels the same way. This game was undefeated in early October and won 7 of their first 8 games and had Mountain West title hopes on their minds. They tanked down the stretch losing 3 in a row to close out the season and getting topped ATS in all 3 games by a combined 73 points! Two of those losses came vs a pair of teams that finished the year with 4-8 records, New Mexico and San Diego State by 8 and 15 points respectively. Their head coach Jeff Tedford will not be coaching in this bowl game and they have a couple of key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. NMSU should control the trenches here as their running game averages over 200 YPG on 5.8 YPC (4th in the country) facing an Bulldog defense that ranks 98th vs the run. The Aggies average 7.0 YPP on the season (9th nationally) and they have a YPP differential of +1.0 compared to Fresno who is dead even in that category (5.5 YPP offense / 5.5 YPP defense). New Mexico State is absolutely the more motivated team here and we like them to cover this number. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
#321 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville +1.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 8 PM ET- Florida State struggled last week @ Florida but knocked off the Gators 24-15 in a game they trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd quarter. Despite the win the Noles were outgained in the game and had only 90 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC compared to 146 yards rushing for the Gators. In their first game after losing starting QB Travis the offense was not impressive. 2nd string QB Rodemaker was underwhelming completing less than 50% of his passes for only 134 yards vs a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. He is dealing with a concussion issue and may not play in this game, if so FSU has 2 very inexperienced QB’s behind Rodemaker. Louisville’s defense as a whole is very good (top 20 nationally) but their run defense is the strength of that unit allowing only 96 YPG on 3.3 YPC (12th best run defense in the country). If FSU struggles to run as they did vs Florida, that puts this game on the back of Rodemaker which will make it tough. The Cards are coming off a loss vs in state rival Kentucky getting outscored 17-7 in the 4th quarter losing 38-31. U of L outgained the Wildcats 403 to 289 in that loss but had 3 turnovers, which led directly to 10 Kentucky points. The Cats also had a 100 yard kick return for TD which was too much to overcome. The Cards are 10-2 on the season and in their 2 losses they outgained their opponents by a combined 833 to 577. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedule and their YPG differential is nearly the same. The difference is FSU did their damage for all but 1 game with their high level QB Travis under center. With him out, we give Louisville the edge here. As an undefeated team that absolutely had to win this game to have any consideration for the CFP, the Seminoles have all the pressure on them in this game. We like the Cards in Charlotte on Saturday night. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -2.5 over New Mexico State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This is a really solid situational spot for Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are not eligible for a bowl game this year so you can expect them to treat this as their bowl game. They are facing an NMSU team that has already qualified for the CUSA Championship game next weekend where they will be facing Liberty. On top of that, New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE upset last weekend beating Auburn (maybe caught Tigers looking ahead to Alabama this week?) on the road as a 25 point dog. To add fuel to the fire, JSU, because they joined the conference this year is not eligible to play in the CUSA Championship. If they were, this game would be for a spot in that game with both teams at 6-1 in league play and because of that you can bet this is a huge statement game for JSU. Add that up and this is a prime letdown spot for the Aggies looking ahead to next week’s Championship game. JSU played arguably their best game of the season last week beating La Tech 56-17 and outgained the Bulldogs 628 to 269. NMSU’s QB Pavia is banged up and they rely heavily on their running game which could be a problem in this game. JSU ranks 19th nationally allowing only 106 YPG and 4th nationally allowing 2.7 YPC. On the other side of the ball JSU averages almost 250 YPG on the ground (3rd in the nation) and they are facing a Aggie defense that ranks 41st defending the run and 61st in YPC allowed. There is a reason the road team is favored over the team playing in the CUSA Championship Game next week. We like JSU to win by more than a FG here. |
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11-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue -4.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
#168 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -4.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both these teams step into this game with a 3-8 record, however our power ratings have IU as the lowest rated team in the Big 10 and Purdue 3 points better on a neutral site. We’re getting them at basically that number at home on Saturday. Purdue is off a loss @ NW but they played that game without starting QB Card and he is expected back for this one. Even without Card, the Boilermakers were +9 first downs and +114 yards in that loss. What’s been impressive about the Purdue offense as of late is their running game. They have now rushed for over 300 yards in each of their last 2 games and the week prior to that they actually outrushed Michigan in their loss in Ann Arbor. They should have a big edge here in the trenches vs an Indiana team that ranks 107th running the ball and 120th in YPC. IU has lost 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming at home vs Wisconsin with the Badgers playing their backup QB. And the Hoosiers were outgained in that win vs the Badgers by 80 yards but Wisconsin was -2 in turnovers. Despite the records being equal, Purdue has the better numbers vs nearly the same strength of schedule. The Boilers have the better point differential YPG differential and YPP differential. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Hoosiers. Last year Purdue was -10.5 on the road vs IU (Purdue won by 14) and now we’re getting them at home right around a FG favorite. The Boilers lost to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home however when facing lower tier Big 10 opponents (Illinois & Minnesota) they won by scores of 44-19 and 49-30. We like Purdue to win & cover at home on Saturday. |
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11-24-23 | UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane | Top | 16-29 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
#185 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams are both 7-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will move onto play on the AAC Championship game. Tulane has a few other options to make it to that game if they lose here but UTSA does not. We really like the way UTSA is playing right now and we also feel Tulane has been trending down for the last 4 or 5 weeks. The Roadrunners have won 7 straight games and they are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch. Their offense has been rolling to say the least scoring at least 34 points in each of those 7 wins and topping 40 points 4 times. Tulane remains overvalued covering only 2 of their last 8 games and they’ve struggled with some of the AAC’s worst teams. Prior to winning and covering vs a bad FAU team last week, the Green Wave beat Tulsa by 2 (as 24.5 point favorites), beat ECU by 3 (as 17 point favorites), beat Rice by 2 (as 10 point favorites), and topped North Texas by 7 (as 20 point favorites). Their record remains great but this team is primed to be knocked off. On Friday they face the best team they’ve seen since losing by 17 at home vs Ole Miss back in September. Their offense is struggling not scoring more than 24 points in any of their last 3 games and 2 of those games were vs defenses ranked 90th and 129th nationally. We have UTSA rated as the better team and we’re getting more than a FG. When comparing the key stats in AAC play only, despite both teams having 7-0 records, UTSA has a point differential of +132 while Tulane’s point differential is +52. The Roadrunners are also +100 YPG and +1.4 YPP in conference play compared to the Green Wave who are +59 YPG and +0.5 YPP. UTSA has been a dog just once this season and that was @ Tennessee. They haven’t lost a game since September and 2 of their 3 losses this season came with star QB Harris (4 year starter with 11,600 passing yards and 91 TD’s in his career) out of the lineup with an injury. UTSA is undervalued right now and we like them to win this game and move onto the AAC Championship game. |
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11-18-23 | San Diego State v. San Jose State -14.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset. |
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11-11-23 | USC v. Oregon -15.5 | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
#186 ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon -15.5 over USC, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - USC’s mental state has to be in question entering this game. They had goals of getting to the College FB Playoff and winning the Pac 12. Their playoff hopes were dashed a few weeks ago with their 2nd loss of the season and last week their 52-42 home loss vs Washington ended their Pac 12 hopes. This team is in a prime position now to get rolled by Oregon who we feel is the best team in the conference and one of the top few teams in the country. We expect the Oregon offense to pretty much do whatever they want in this game vs a terrible USC defense. In their last 6 games, the Trojan defense has allowed 40+ points 5 times and the only team that didn’t get there was Utah whose offense ranks 93rd nationally and the Utes still got to 34 points. The Ducks lead the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and we have no doubt they’ll top 50 here and we wouldn’t be surprised if they put up a 60 burger. Last week Oregon rolled vs Cal 63-19 while USC was giving up 52 points to Washington. The Ducks offense has been unstoppable ranking #2 nationally in total offense, #3 in YPP, #1 in YPC, #4 in passing yards, #1 in completion percentage and the list goes on. This USC has struggled vs everyone they’ve faced this season and now they are taking the road to play the BEST offense they’ve seen this year. Oregon is obviously a tough place to play and the Ducks are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in Eugene this year with an average margin of victory sitting at a ridiculous +42 points. That’s not their home point differential for the season folks, that’s their average winning margin at home! USC can score points but the difference here is Oregon actually has a very solid defense. They rank in the top 20 in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. The Trojans have faced only 2 other defenses this year that rank in the top 30 and in those games vs Notre Dame & Utah, they scored 20 and 24 offensive points (minus defensive and special teams scores) and that won’t get close to getting it done in this game. These 2 teams have both played Cal & Utah within the last 3 weeks and Oregon won those games 63-19 and 35-6 respectively while USC came from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to beat Cal 50-49 and lost at home to Utah 34-32. Add in USC’s potential fragile mindset and this should be an easy Oregon win. |
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11-11-23 | Fresno State v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 18-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -2.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Fresno is more than ripe to get upset in this game. There is a reason that the 8-1 Bulldogs (ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll) are a 1 point dog vs a San Jose State team that steps into this game with a 4-5 record. First off, San Jose State has played the tougher schedule with their losses coming at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 35-12! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve won 3 straight in blowout fashion, including 2 on the road, beating those 3 opponents by a combined score of 129 to 45 and outgaining those teams 1,370 to 853. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with 727 yards over the last 3 games. Despite their losing record, the Spartans are +40 YPG, +0.5 YPP, and +50 point differential on the season. They are much better than their record. Fresno has only 1 loss but they are slipping right now and lucky to get by with their wins in recent weeks. They’ve now been outgained in 4 straight games and their QB Keene is nowhere close to 100% healthy with a knee issue. The Bulldogs are losing in the trenches getting outrushed in 4 straight games and not reaching 100 yards rushing in 2 of those contests. We were on Boise State last week @ Fresno and the Broncos had more first downs, outgained the Bulldogs BOTH on the ground and through the air. The huge turning point in that game was an FSU 95 yard kickoff return as time expired in the 1st half taking the wind out of Boise’s sails in the 37-30 game. Now they travel to San Jose and they catch the Spartans off a bye week and playing their best football of the season. We like SJSU to control this game in the trenches and win at home on Saturday night. |
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11-11-23 | Tennessee -2.5 v. Missouri | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
#195 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tennessee should be fresh here coming off a 59-3 home blowout over UConn. The Vols were up 35-3 at half and they were able to get their starters plenty of rest in the 2nd half including QB Milton who only played in the 1st half. Meanwhile Mizzou was playing in a physical game @ Georgia, a game the Tigers lost 30-21. They had a bye week leading into their game vs UGA so they put 2 full weeks of prep and emotion into that game and now might be a bit flat here. We really like the Vols edge on both lines of scrimmage with the Tennessee offense averaging 228 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally) on 5.8 YPC (5th) while the UT defense allows just 97 YPG rushing (14th nationally) on 2.9 YPC (8th). The Tigers have been far from dominant at home despite their 5-1 mark as a host. The top 2 teams they’ve played here were LSU, who beat Missouri by 10, and Kansas State who lost on a 61 yard FG as time expired. In other home games the Tigers struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State by 4 and Memphis by 7. Mizzou QB Cook is very solid but we expect he’ll be under pressure again this week just as he was last week when he completed less than 50% of his passes vs UGA. The Tennessee front 7 is very good and they are top 30 in both QB sacks per game and sack percentage while the Mizzou offensive line is outside the top 45 in both of those stats. There is also a chance Cook’s #1 target WR Burden (960 yards receiving and 7 TD’s) may not play here as he has been banged up for weeks and was injured during the Georgia game last week. Burden is easily the Tigers top offensive weapon. On the season Tennessee is +147 YPG, +1.9 YPP differential, and +147 point differential. For the season Missouri is +89 YPG, +1.2 YPP, and +76 point differential. Tennessee is simply the better team, in a better situation, and with the line where it is they just have to win this game outright to most likely get a cover. |
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11-11-23 | Miami-FL +14.5 v. Florida State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
#127 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +14.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think Miami will give FSU all they can handle here so we’re grabbing the hefty points. We’re getting some nice value here with the Canes coming off a loss @ NC State as nearly a TD favorite. Perhaps they were peaking ahead to this huge revenge game after getting walloped by FSU last season. Miami outgained NC State both on the ground and through the air in that loss but had 4 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs at the NCSU 3 yard line. Miami is still a very solid 6-3 on the season with high level wins over Texas A&M & Clemson. The undefeated Seminoles have been on cruise control but they’ve faced only ONE opponent with a current winning record since coming from behind to beat Clemson in OT in late September. That opponent was Duke who has a winning record but is struggling big time (lost 3 of their last 5) with QB Leonard not 100%. These 2 teams have played very similar strength of schedules and their overall key stats are actually pretty close despite FSU being undefeated. Miami is +128 YPG with a +1.5 YPP differential and FSU’s numbers are +126 and +1.8. Miami is 10-3 ATS as an underdog in this series and the last 8 times they’ve been a dog on the road vs FSU, the Canes have covered 7 times. Since 1997, only twice as Florida State been favored by more than a 2 TDs vs their in state rival Miami. This is too high and there is nothing Miami would like better than to end their arch rivals run at the College FB Playoff. They’ll be more than ready here and we expect a tight game throughout. Take the points. |
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11-04-23 | Boise State +3 v. Fresno State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -117 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
#425 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State +3 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We are on the Broncos plus the points when they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. Fresno is a ‘false favorite’ here with their 7-1 SU record on the season. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is +14.4PPG but that number is inflated after a 53-0 win over Kent and 29-0 win over Arizona State. Kent is one of the worst teams in football. ASU was without their starting QB, in a new system and had 8 TO’s in 13 possessions. According to our rankings, Fresno State has played the 97th easiest schedule in college football. Boise State is a misleading 4-4 SU this season and could conceivably have 6 straight wins with two of their losses coming by 1-point and 3-points. In their last three games they beat a surging San Jose State team, lost on a last second pass to Colorado State and then beat Wyoming badly last week 32-7. The Broncos dominated a Wyoming team that Fresno recently played and lost to by 5-points. We tend to favor strong rushing teams and Boise fits the bill with a unit that averages 195-rushing YPG at 5.1YPC. Fresno boasts some strong rushing statistics, but they’ve faced a weak rushing schedule with everyone other than UNLV ranked 70th or worse. Last week FSU was outplayed by UNLV, outrushed 156-56 but managed to win by 7-points. Boise State as an underdog since 2021 is 5-2-1 ATS. The Broncos get revenge here after losing in the conference championship game a year ago to this Fresno team. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -3 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great spot to fade Kansas who is coming off their biggest program win in decades topping Oklahoma at home last week 38-33. KU scored their game winning TD with 55 seconds remaining and it was storm the field time after that win. Now the Jayhawks head on the road where they are 0-3 ATS this season with their only outright win coming @ Nevada, one of the worst teams in CFB, by just 7 points. ISU is peaking right now. They’ve won and covered 4 of their last 5 games including a double digit home win over a very solid TCU team and a 7 point home win vs one of the hottest teams in the country, Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are actually tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas, and KSU with a 4-1 record. Their offense is playing well scoring 27 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Cyclones have a big edge defensively in this game. ISU sits in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed while Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. KU thrives on their running game as they only attempt 25 passes per game (114th nationally) but they are facing an ISU defense that allows only 123 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC. Iowa State’s running game struggled early in the season but over their last 3 they averaged nearly 170 YPG on the ground and they are facing a KU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. KU clinched bowl eligibility last week in their win vs OU and they were ranked for the first time EVER in the current BCS poll. Huge letdown here and ISU continues to play well and wins at home. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 41 h 16 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston College +3 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - BC has quietly been playing very well over the last month plus with 4 straight wins. In those games their running game, now ranked 14th in the country, has been dominant, rolling up 246, 308, 321,and 203 yards rushing in those wins. That should continue vs a Syracuse team that is in a complete free fall. The Orange have lost 4 straight games and they’ve allowed an average of 210 YPG on the ground in those losses. Offensively in those games the Cuse put up 100, 92, 124, and 0 yards on the ground. Yes that’s correct in their most recent game vs Virginia Tech the Orange lost 38-10 and were outrushed 318 to 0! More concerning is they were coming off a bye leading into that Va Tech game last week and they were dominated 6.7 to 3.2 on a YPP basis. It looks like Syracuse might be done if they can’t show up with some heart and effort coming off a bye after 3 straight losses. They continue to be overvalued and have been destroyed ATS as well losing the last 4 to the number by a combined 86 points. BC QB Castellanos had an illness last week vs UConn and didn’t play very well but prior to that he had been really solid rushing for 342 yards with 6 rushing TD’s the previous 3 games. He’s also been solid passing the ball with 1,600 yards through the air and 11 TD’s. He’s going to be a big problem for this Cuse defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games. The dog has covered 10 of the last 12 BC games dating back to last year and we’ll call for it again. We know this game is in Syracuse but the wrong team is favored in our opinion. |
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11-02-23 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover. |
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10-31-23 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#303 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5 over Central Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This game opened with NIU as a 3 point favorite and has jumped to -5 and we agree with that move. We have the Huskies closer to a 7 point chalk in our power ratings so we still feel there is value on the road favorite. CMU has 2 MAC wins this year vs Akron and EMU and both were tight games with the Chippewas winning by 7 and 3 respectively. Those are 2 of the worst teams in the country both rated outside the top 115 in our power ratings. CMU’s 2 MAC losses came at the hands of Buffalo & Ball State, who are both ranked outside the top 100 and have a combined record of 5-11. NIU has played the much tougher MAC slate and has a record of 3-1 and they are very close to being undefeated in league play with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Toledo, the best team in the conference. The Huskies beat Ohio by 10 points as well who is rated as the 3rd best team in the MAC. Northern & CMU have faced 2 common opponents in league play (ECU & Akron) and while Central beat those 2 teams by a combined 10 points, Northern Illinois beat them by a combined 48 points. We have the advantage at QB and on defense in this game with Northern. Senior QB Lombardi is a veteran and in MAC play he’s completed over 63% of his passes in all 4 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CMU starting QB Bauer, who was the back up to start the season, is completing 58% of his passes this season and on MAC play vs 4 very poor teams he has 4 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Defensively NIU ranks in the top 25 nationally in YPG & YPP allowed. Central Michigan ranks 91st and 122nd in those 2 categories. On the season NIU has a +0.4 YPP differential, +32 YPG differential, and a +24 point differential. CMU has a -1.4 YPP differential, -70 YPG differential, and a -62 point differential. The Huskies by at least a TD in this one. |
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10-28-23 | Ohio State -14.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#193 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wisconsin’s going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball and putting points in the board in this game. Versus the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season, Iowa & Rutgers, they scored a total of 23 offensive points in those 2 games while averaging just 4.4 YPP. Last week vs a below average Illinois team UW was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter and scored 18 unanswered points to pick up a tight win. Their back up QB Locke is now under center for Wisconsin after starter Mordecai broke his hand in the Iowa game. While Locke was solid in his first start last week vs an Illinois defense that ranks 81st in total defense. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen this season, but a longshot in our opinion, ranking 2nd in YPP allowed (3.8 YPP) and 3rd nationally in scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed). The Bucks held a very good PSU offense, who was averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s game in Columbus, to only 12 points (with their final TD coming with 29 seconds left in the game) on just 3.5 YPP. They held PSU’s rushing attack to just 1.9 YPC and if they duplicate that on Saturday, Wisconsin is in huge trouble. On the other side OSU had some decent success last week scoring 20 points vs a high level PSU stop unit we have rated much better than Wisconsin’s. The Badgers defense is way down from previous editions with no big playmakers in the front 7. Their run defense ranks 52nd nationally after sitting in the top 10 each of the previous 4 seasons. We’re not sure they’ll be able to hold up in the trenches on either side of the ball. The OSU offense is starting to find their rhythm under new QB McCord as they average 6.6 YPP (25th nationally) and prior to last week’s game vs PSU they had scored at least 35 points in 4 of their previous 5 games. Prior to topping Penn State by 8, the Buckeyes had won each of their previous 3 Big 10 games by at least 20 points. Lay it. |
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10-28-23 | Georgia v. Florida +14.5 | Top | 43-20 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida +14.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The bottom line here is that Georgia has been overvalued in the betting markets all season long, hence the 1-5-1 ATS record to date. The Bulldogs have played an extremely soft schedule without a quality win on their resume. This team was bound to see a regression this season after heavy losses to the NFL and the loss of their O-coordinator. Georgia has impressive offensive/defensive statistics, ranking top 12 in many of the main categories but again, who have they faced? Not one of the offenses the Bulldogs have faced will be as good as this Gator offense. The best yards per game offense the Dawgs have faced was UAB, the other five FBS teams rank 79th or worst in total O. The same can be said about the misleading Georgia offensive statistics. They have faced four defenses that rank 84th or worse, three of which are 119th or worse. Now the Bulldogs will face a Florida defense that is 36th in total D allowing 345YPG. Florida has a top 10 rushing D in terms of success rate and can limit the Dawgs rushing attack without committing more players to the box. The Gators have two quality foes on their resume as they faced Utah in the opening game of the season and also hosted Tennessee. Florida is in the upper third statistically in most offensive categories and thrives in their passing game. That may be surprising with former Wisconsin QB Mertz under center. But Mertz has played well for the Gators with 12 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season while completing 76% of his attempts. Mertz is currently the top rated QB in the SEC when it comes to 3rd downs. Mertz shouldn’t face too much pressure either as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in pass rush. Georgia will be without their best offensive weapon in TE Bowers which will make things difficult for QB Beck playing his first big away from home (neutral site game). With two losses this is the Gators Super Bowl, and we like them to keep this close throughout. |
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10-28-23 | Houston v. Kansas State -17 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
#190 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State -17 over Houston, Saturday at 12 PM ET - KSU is destroying everyone at home this season. They just beat a solid TCU team 41-3 last week at home almost 600 yards to 300 for TCU. The Wildcats are 21-9 ATS last 30 home games and 4-0 SU at home this year winning by an average score of 43-12. Houston is in a rough situational spot here. They are off a huge home game vs Texas which was considered by Houston fans (and players) as their biggest game of the season. It has been 20+ years since the Cougars were able to take on the in state big boy but now that they have moved to the Big 12, this was their one shot before Texas moves on to the SEC. Texas (-23.5 on the road) jumped out to a 21-0 lead scoring TD’s on 3 of their first 4 possessions and it looked like a blowout. The Horns lost their starting QB Ewers to an injury in the third quarter and Houston made a valiant comeback before losing 31-24. That game took a huge toll physically and emotionally on this Houston team and now they have to go on the road and play a very good team in a tough venue. The Cougars are 0-2 SU on the road this year including a loss @ Rice and 21 point loss @ Texas Tech. On top of that, this is a terrible match up for Houston. The Wildcats are very physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball and Houston is not. KSU ranks 4th nationally rushing at 233 YPG and Houston is 92nd vs the run so the Cats should run wild on Saturday. KSU ran for 343 yards last week in a TCU defense that ranked 38th nationally stopping the run coming into the game allowing only 126 YPG rushing. Now the Wildcats face a defense that can’t stop the run, as we mentioned, and might be out of gas. On the flip side, Houston is a poor running team ranking 108th rushing for just 117 YPG and KSU only allows 108 YPG rushing so the Cats should absolutely control the line of scrimmage here which is key. Houston will be a one dimensional offense a very good KSU defense. These teams have played 2 common opponents this season and we have drastically different results. KSU beat TCU 41-3 and Texas Tech 38-21 and outgained those 2 by a combined 242 yards. Houston lost to both TCU 36-13 and Texas Tech 49-28 and they were outgained in those 2 games by a combined 210 yards. Houston gets rolled in this one. |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright. |
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10-21-23 | UTSA v. Florida Atlantic +3 | Top | 36-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
#348 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic +2.5 over UTSA, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UTSA is still getting priced too high in the market in our opinion. Our power ratings have FAU as a slight favorite at home in this game. The Roadrunners were very good last season with an 11-3 overall record and it seems the oddsmakers are still relying on last year’s results to set numbers this season. UTSA is just 3-3 on the year and only 2-4 ATS. They did miss their starting QB Harris for 2 games this season but the offense hasn’t been great with him in the lineup. The Roadrunners are coming off back to back deceivingly easy wins which sets this one up nicely. They beat Temple and UAB handily each of the last 2 weeks but UTSA was outgained in both of those games. Those 2 opponents have a combined 4-10 record and turned the ball over 5 times in those 2 games (UTSA had 1 turnover). This FAU team is also 3-3 on the season but they’ve played the tougher schedule already facing road games @ Clemson and @ Illinois. The Owls are improving and seem to be peaking under new HC Herman (former Texas head coach) and they are finally looking comfortable with his new schemes. Since getting rolled @ Clemson in September, the Owls have covered 3 straight and won the last 2 SU vs Tulsa and South Florida. Last week they played their most complete game of the season rolling over a decent USF team who lost to Bama this year by only 7 points. In last week’s game, FAU was a 2 point dog on the road @ South Florida and won 56-14 putting up almost 600 yards on 7.5 YPP. QB Richardson, former Central Michigan starter, took over for an injured starter (Thompson) after the Clemson loss and he’s impressed with almost 800 yards passing, a 67% completion rate, and 5 TD’s in those 3 starts. He’s been getting help from his running game as well with FAU topping 200 yards rushing in each of the last 2 games. The Owls have played the strong strength of schedule and still have a better YPP differential and point differential when compared to UTSA. This Florida Atlantic team is playing their best football of the season and getting points at home vs a UTSA team that has been throwing up some false final scores as of late. Take the points with the home team. |
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10-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -12 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -12 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We’ve been anti EMU all season long and for good reason. The Eagles have a 4-3 record but that record is as deceiving as it gets. Their wins have come vs Howard (FCS), Kent (we have power rated 133rd – last in FBS), UMass (power rated 129th) and Ball State (power rated 121st). In last week’s 28-14 win vs Kent, the Eagles were actually outgained 343 to 218 by a Golden Flashes team that was getting outgained by an average of 221 to 460 coming into that game. EMU benefitted from 3 Kent turnovers including a pick 6. That’s vs a Kent team that had been outscored 202-42 in their 6 games vs FBS opponents this season. So EMU was facing what was the worst team in college football, they were outplayed by a lot on the stat sheet, and it was a home game for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their wins (except Howard) by teams we have rated in the bottom 10 to 15 in college football. They are now on the road vs a NIU team that has been playing very well. Last week the Huskies beat a very good Ohio team (rated 2nd best team in the MAC) by 10 points and outgained them by +1.2 YPP. A week prior to that they roasted Akron 55-14 and before that lost @ Toledo (#1 team in the MAC) by just 2 points. The Husky defense has been solid all year ranking in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They will have no problem whatsoever vs an Eastern Michigan offense that has been brutal all season long. The Eagles rank outside the top 115 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. NIU has played the much tougher schedule to date and the Huskies have a +0.5 YPP differential while EMU has a -1.4 YPP differential. Northern controlled the trenches last week vs a top notch Ohio defense (130 yards rushing to 95 for Ohio) and they should own the line of scrimmage again this week. The Huskies rushing attack has really kicked it in gear over the last 4 games averaging 215 YPG on the ground and they are facing an EMU defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing this season. Kent, who was averaging 79 YPG rushing entering last week, had 163 yards on the ground vs this Eagle defense. NIU is better, and quite a bit better, in every facet of the game. We’re getting a decent line here (lower than it should be) because EMU has a faulty record as we discussed. If Eastern wasn’t 9th in the nation in turnover margin (+1 per game) their record would look quite different. This should be a blowout. |
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10-18-23 | Florida International v. Sam Houston State -5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Sam Houston State -5 over Florida International, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Wait a minute. The 0-6 team is favored over the 3-4 team? Not only that, the winless team is favored by more than a FG. Hmmm. We agree SHSU should be favored at home in this one and we’ll side with them here. First these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. FIU had 3 game winning streak back in early to mid September and after that run they have lost 3 straight by a combined score of 99-37. They also failed to cover all 3 of those games by a combined 50 points! The Panthers were in a great spot to pick up a win at home last Thursday facing a bad UTEP team that was down to their 4th string QB. FIU lost that game by 13 points and were outgained by almost 100 yards. Despite their overall record, Sam Houston is 3-2-1 ATS on the season. Their offense was putrid the first 3 games but they faced some tough competition in BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The Bearkats only scored 10 total points in those 3 games. However, over their last 3 games this offense has improved dramatically scoring 57 points and averaging 377 YPG. That improvement should continue here vs an FIU defense that ranks 117th in total defense and 118th in YPP allowed. SHSU has played the much tougher schedule (58th SOS compared to 132nd for FIU) and this is just their 3rd home game of the season. They’ve played quite well in their other 2 home tilts losing to undefeated Air Force 13-3 holding the #1 rushing team in the nation 80 yards and 1.3 YPC below their averaging. In their other home game they lost in OT to Jacksonville State (5-2 record) but the Bearkats were +5 first downs and +40 yards in that game. This team is overdue for a win and they know this is one of the best shots. Look for a great effort and a win and cover from Sam Houston State. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Air Force -11 over Wyoming, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason AF is favored by a full 10 points over a Wyoming team that currently has a 5-1 record. The Cowboys have been as lucky as you can get to reach that record this season. They’ve been outgained by an average of 52 YPG and their offense is one of the worst in college football averaging only 325 YPG (114th). They’ve had a favorable schedule with all home games with the exception of their game @ Texas, a 31-10 Wyoming loss, and in that game they caught the Longhorns the week after they beat Alabama on the road. They have not been on the road in full month and we think they’re running into a buzzsaw here. Air Force is 5-0 on the season and they are coming off a bye week. The Falcons rank #1 nationally averaging 330 YPG on the ground and they are facing a Wyoming defense that ranks 76th defending the run and 78th in YPC allowed. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in 2 of their last 3 games and we think they’ll struggle to stop the rested Falcons here. The AF offense is humming scoring at least 39 points in every game but one this season. Defensively they’ve been elite ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and passing YPG allowed. Wyoming will have trouble keeping up in this game with a poor offense vs that defense. This is also a revenger for Air Force after losing by 3 points @ Wyoming last year as a -16.5 point favorite. The Cowboys are playing for the 7th consecutive week and are off an upset home win over Fresno State (Wyoming was +6 at home in that game). The Falcons have won every game this season by double digits by an average score of 37-12. They have quietly won 19 of their last 22 games with 15 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. Lay it. |
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10-07-23 | Michigan -17.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 52-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
#401 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -17.5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We see this game playing out very similar to last week’s Michigan win @ Nebraska 45-7. The Husker are actually a better team than Minnesota this year (according to our power ratings) as they dominated the stat sheet @ Minnesota in week 1 but lost 13-10 due to 4 turnovers. Minnesota struggled here last week vs UL Lafayette but won by 11 despite getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 5.3 YPP. ULL held Minnesota to just 347 total yards and the Gophs were lucky to put up 35 points with those yardage numbers. ULL did rush for 180 yards on the Gopher defense which has taken a big step back this season. That’ll be a problem vs the potent Michigan rushing attack that had 249 yards on the ground last week vs a very good Nebraska defense last Saturday. The Wolves were going through the motions their first 3 games off the season which were all easy wins but non-covers. The last 2 weeks vs Big 10 opponents they scored 76 points and held those teams to 14 points combined. Now with their head coach Harbaugh and OC back on the sidelines after missing games early this season due to suspensions, we look for Michigan to roll. Minnesota has played a relatively easy schedule with the best team they played, North Carolina, rolling over the Gophs 31-13 and outgaining them 519 to 303. Their other opponents are Eastern Michigan (bad MAC team), Nebraska (lower tier Big 10 team), Northwestern (lower tier Big 10 team) and UL Lafayette from the Sun Belt. Despite their strength of schedule (62nd) the Gophers have been outgained on the year on both a YPG and YPP basis. Similar to last week’s Michigan game vs Nebraska – Minnesota can’t pass (120th at 149 YPG passing) and you can’t run on Michigan as they are allowing 85 YPG on the ground. Last week a solid rushing team, Nebraska, had 106 yards on the ground and 74 of those came on one run late in the game – the Huskers only TD. On top of that, Minnesota’s top RB Taylor didn’t play last week and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for this one. The Wolverines have won 30 of their last 31 regular season games and 25 of those have come by double digits. Michigan can name the score here and we look for a blowout. |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 61 h 43 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Friday at 8 PM ET - We have Nebraska power rated as the better team in this match up and they are getting just north of the FG. After back to back wins the Huskers were crushed last week at home vs Michigan which wasn’t unexpected as the Wolverines just might be the best team in the country. The Nebraska offense was actually decent averaging 5.9 YPP but only ran 46 offensive snaps to 74 for Michigan. Their defense really impressed us this season but struggled vs one of the top offenses in the country last week. We expect them to bounce back and play very well vs an Illinois offense that ranks 75th nationally in total offense and is averaging just over 21 PPG (105th nationally). After their loss vs Michigan, Cornhusker head coach Matt Rhule held a surprise full pad, full contact practice on Sunday and our word is it was one of their best practices of the season. The Illini were blasted 44-19 @ Purdue last week and that’s a Boiler team that entered that game with only 1 win on the season (by 7 points) vs a bad Va Tech team. Illinois has 2 wins on the season coming by 2 points vs Toledo and by 6 points vs a bad FAU team. We were on the Illini in that game vs FAU and thought it was a perfect spot for them to get back on track vs the Owls who were rolled @ Clemson a week earlier and lost their starting QB in that loss. Illinois was only able to beat FAU 23-17 in a very disappointing performance. Their defense has dropped off drastically this season after losing a number of key players to the NFL. The Illini gave up over 200 yards rushing last week vs Purdue and are giving up 180 YPG on the ground this season (110th). That’s a problem vs a Nebraska offense that is putting up over 200 YPG on the ground (15th nationally) and are continuing with Haaberg at QB who has 255 yards rushing in his 3 starts. Nebraska is much better defensively this season allowing 4.6 YPP (that includes game vs Michigan) compared to the Illini allowing 5.5 YPP. Nebraska really should be 3-2 on the season after completely outplaying Minnesota on the road in week 1 (lost 13-10) with other losses @ Colorado and at home vs Michigan. We give the Huskers a great shot at winning this one outright so we’ll take the points. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 48 m | Show |
#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 8 PM ET - WKY is overvalued coming into this one and our power ratings have them as just under a 3 point favorite and they opened -7. It has since dropped a bit but still some solid value on the host La Tech. Western Kentucky is coming off a solid 31-10 win over MTSU however the yardage was much closer than than (444 to 373) and the Blue Raiders had 3 turnovers. MTSU left a number of points on the field getting shut out on downs twice inside WKY territory to go along with their turnover problems. It was actually the first time this season the Hilltoppers (3-2 record) have outgained their opponent (minus FCS competition). Western is averaging 382 YPG on the season (76th nationally) while allowing 472 YPG (130th). They rank 106th defensively allowing 6.2 YPP on the season and they have allowed over 500 yards in 3 of their 4 games vs FBS opponents. So we have a team laying nearly a TD on the road despite being poor on defense. Not a great recipe for success. Their offense has also taken a big step back (-130 YPG compared to last year) after losing their OC in the off season to Washington State. La Tech moved to 3-3 on the season after a road win @ UTEP last Saturday. Their offense has been comparable to WKY averaging 376 YPG but the Bulldogs defense is allowing nearly 100 fewer YPG than the Hilltoppers. The host also has the much better rushing attack (153 YPG on the ground to just 98 YPG for WKY) and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that gives up over 200 YPG on the ground. Western is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks here and on a short week. We’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech at home. |
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09-30-23 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia Southern -6.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
#146 ASA TOP PLAY ON Georgia Southern -6.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Georgia Southern has been very impressive this year under HC Clay Helton (former USC head coach) with a 3-1 record. Their only loss on the season was @ Wisconsin and GSU actually outplayed the Badgers in that one (more first downs & total yardage) but had 6 turnovers (0 for Wisconsin) in that setback. They bounced back nicely after that loss trouncing Ball State on the road 40-3 last Saturday. The Eagles offense has been tough to stop ranking 18th nationally in YPG and 7th in yards passing. Tulsa transfer QB Brin has completed 73% of his passes this year for 1,300 yards in just 4 games. If he can avoid the turnover, the GSU team will be very tough to beat. Brin does have 7 interceptions on the season, but again 5 came in one game vs Wisconsin. The defense has improved dramatically over last season allowing 334 YPG so far this season after allowing over 500 YPG a year ago. Coastal has taken a step back as we expected. They had a turnover on the coaching staff with their head coach moving onto Liberty. The Chanticleers are 2-2 on the season coming off a 30-17 home loss vs Georgia State. Their only 2 wins have come vs FCS Duquesne and Jacksonville State. This will be their first road game in almost a month and GSU has been waiting for this one. The Eagles went to Coastal last year and almost pulled the upset losing 34-30. GSU led by 10 in the 4th quarter in that game but allowed CC to score TD’s on each of their final 3 possessions. If we subtract games vs FCS teams this year, GSU still has a +0.6 YPP differential while Coastal is -0.8 YPP. The Eagles could have easily won on the road last year vs Coastal and we have upgraded GSU this year while the Chanticleers have clearly taken a step back. We’ll side with Georgia Southern at home. |
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09-30-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan -9.5 | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
#154 ASA PLAY ON 8* Central Michigan -9.5 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - We faded EMU last week @ Jacksonville State (-6.5) and picked up an easy 21-0 win. As we mentioned last week, Eastern Michigan had a record of 2-1 (now 2-2) but they were very lucky to have won any games this season. Their wins came vs Howard (average FCS team) and UMass who we have power rated as one of the 5 worst teams in the nation. Despite the wins, EMU was actually outgained in the Howard game by 120 yards and needed not one but two kickoff return TD’s to win by 10. In their game last week vs a bad UMass team, EMU was again outgained by 93 yards, they were +3 in turnovers, and still need a 50 yard passing TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 19-17. In their loss the Eagles were blasted by Minnesota, allowed almost 300 yards rushing and they were outgained 413 to 152! In last week’s loss the Eagles only had 152 yards of total offense and gave up nearly 400 to JSU. The Eagles were outrushed 295 to 57 in the loss. Now on the road again for the 2nd straight week we think there’s a good chance they get blasted again. CMU is also 2-2 but they’ve played a tough schedule with losses @ Notre Dame and @ Michigan State (prior to MSU coach firing) and last week the Chippewas looked very good upsetting South Alabama on the road as a double digit underdog. That was just 1 week after South Alabama topped Oklahoma State on the road 33-7! CMU put up 34 points last week vs a solid South Alabama defense and they are facing an Eastern Michigan offense that can’t score (just 23 total points in 3 games vs FBS opponents). EMU ranks 131st (out of 133) in the nation in total offense (240 YPG) and on the other side of the ball their rush defense ranks 130th allowing 230 YPG on the ground. CMU won 3 straight vs the Eagles from 2019 – 2021 by an average margin of +18 PPG before losing @ EMU as a 1.5 point favorite last year. Central dual threat QB Emanuel will be EMU’s poor defense fits here and we like the Chippewas to get their revenge. Double digit win here. |
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09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | 31-14 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
#126 ASA PLAY ON 8* Syracuse +7 over Clemson, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on Clemson last week in what we thought was a great spot getting them in a rare home underdog role. The Tigers outplayed FSU in the stat sheet and never trailed in regulation. They lost by 7 in OT and we expect them to be flat here after blowing that game and ending their shot at the College Playoff. Now they are in a really rough spot going to a venue they’ve struggled in versus an opponent who sees this as one of their biggest games of the season. The Orange have covered 3 of the last 4 at home vs Clemson and their most recent game in the Carrier Dome (now JMA Wireless Dome but we can’t bring ourselves to call it that) in 2021, Syracuse outgained the Tigers but lost 17-14. They missed a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining which would have tied the game. Last year Cuse traveled to Clemson and gave them all they could handle losing 27-21 in one of the toughest stadiums to play in CFB. Syracuse is 4-0 on the season (3-0-1 ATS) but started a bit slow last week vs Army (looking ahead to this game?) before rolling to an easy win and holding the Cadets potent rushing attack to just 2.7 YPC. This Orange defense ranked in the top 25 nationally last year in YPP allowed and they are in the top 20 this year in that stat. Offensively they have a veteran QB Schraeder who is very dangerous throwing for almost 1,000 yards already this season while rushing for over 300 on nearly 7.0 YPC. They are averaging 44 PPG on the season through 4 games. The Clemson offense has some cluster injuries at the WR position and they’ve had problems with the Syracuse defense scoring only 44 points the last 2 meetings combined. This is a HUGE home game for Syracuse and they are catching Clemson in a perfect spot for an upset. We’ll take the points. |
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09-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Illinois -15 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 36 m | Show |
#360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -15 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Illini are just 1-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far already facing the best team in the MAC (Toledo), one of the better teams in the Big 12 (Kansas), and a top 10 team (Penn State). Now they take a big step down in competition and we think Bret Bielema and company are ready to paste someone. This looks like that spot as they face an FAU team that hasn’t been able to score points and now will be playing without their starting QB. The Owls have scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD’s in their 2 games vs FBS opponents (Ohio & Clemson) and both of those came last week @ Clemson when the Tigers already had a 41-0 lead and were already looking ahead to their game this week vs FSU. The Owls have averaged a ridiculously bad 3.3 YPP vs those 2 FBS teams which ranks them 132nd nationally (out of 133 teams). The Illinois defense was fantastic last season ranking 4th nationally in total defense and we expected a step back after losing some key players. They are still much better than they’ve shown thus far vs 3 high level offenses and now they get a reprieve and we expect the defense to shut down FAU. Last week they showed quite well holding a very good PSU offense to 4 YPC and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. This will be the Illini’s 3rd home game this season and in their first 2 they looked solid. They topped a very good Toledo team in week 1 and were impressive offensively averaging 6.1 YPP while holding the Rockets to 5.3 YPP. Last week they lost 30-13 here vs Penn State but that was a bit deceiving. The overall and YPP yardage was very close to even in that game. Problem was Illinois was -5 in turnovers and 4 of those giveaways led directly to 20 of PSU’s 30 points. Illinois does have their Big 10 opener @ Purdue on deck but coming off 2 losses we don’t expect them to be peaking ahead here. Bielema has never been afraid to win big vs inferior competition and he knows his team needs some confidence going into conference play. Blowout here. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 20 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue +6 over Wisconsin, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’re not about to lay points on the road with this transitioning Wisconsin team that has struggled with the changes early in the season. Their opening 21 point win over Buffalo is not all that impressive as the Bulls have since lost to FCS Fordham and then were destroyed at home by Liberty. Their lone road game was a 9 point loss @ Washington State and last week they were tied at 7-7 at home vs Georgia Southern at halftime but SIX GSU turnovers allowed Wisconsin to pull away. For the Badgers to be a 20.5 point favorite and only cover by a half point despite being +6 in turnovers is telling. This UW defense is not on par with previous editions. They don’t have any big time playmakers in the front 7 and their pass defense was shredded last weekend vs Georgia Southern for 383 yards through the air. After 3 games this pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG allowed and outside the top 90 in opponent completion percentage. Now they face a solid Purdue passing game with Texas transfer QB Card at the helm who has thrown for 825 yards (65.5% completions) in 3 games. Purdue had a deceiving score as well last week due to turnovers but, unlike Wisconsin, they were the team turning the ball over. The Boilers lost to Syracuse but they were -4 in turnover margin while the total yardage was fairly close. We feel we’re getting some line value here as well. We have Syracuse and Wisconsin currently power rated about dead even yet the Badgers are laying 6 points this week and Cuse laid just 2.5 here last Saturday. UW has dominated this series as of late but their defense looks susceptible and the offense is still learning the ropes of their new scheme. We’ll call for this one to go down to the wire so the points should be valuable. |
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09-16-23 | James Madison v. Troy -2.5 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 30 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Troy -2.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Troy is back home after getting waxed @ Kansas State last week which wasn’t a big surprise as the Wildcats are one of the better teams in the country. In that loss we were impressed with Troy’s defense as they held a very good KSU offense to 5.7 YPP and on the ground the Cats averaged less than 4.0 YPC. It was a 2 score game early in the 4th quarter when KSU added a few late TD’s to make this score look worse than in probably should have been at 42-13. The Trojans won their first game big over Stephen F Austin (a decent FCS team) despite turning the ball over 4 times they had 523 yards of offense. Now we get last year’s Sun Belt Champs (Troy), who finished 12-2 last season, back at home with a light number. We haven’t been overly impressed with JMU through their first 2 games. They are 2-0 but wins over FCS Bucknell, who has a 5-21 record their last 26 games, and a come from behind win over a bad Virginia team last week. That was a huge win for James Madison taking down the instate big boy UVA but let’s not forget JMU was nearly a TD favorite on the road in that game and won 36-35 on a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Cavs are one of the worst Power 5 teams in the nation and JMU was outplayed in that 1 point win. UVA led that game by double digits in the 4th quarter, outgained the Dukes on a YPP basis, and the Cavs true freshman QB (back up but playing for injured starter) who stands 5’11 and has zero experience threw for 377 yards on the James Madison defense. They put up 35 points on JMU after scoring 10 points in their opener vs Tennessee. UVA averaged 6.5 YPP vs James Madison last weekend after averaging just 3.0 YPP vs the Vols. Looks like we have a big edge defensively with the host here and the Trojans also have a very experienced QB Watson (4 year starter) has thrown for over 7,000 yards in his career. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, Troy has now won 11 of their last 12 home games and we’re more than comfortable laying this small number with them on Saturday. |
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09-16-23 | San Diego State v. Oregon State -24.5 | 9-26 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 4 m | Show | |
#156 ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon State -24.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - SDSU steps into this game with a 2-1 record but they are not a good team right now. We currently have them power rated barely inside the top 100 and this is their first road game of the season. Their opening win came vs Ohio 20-13 and the Bobcats lost their starting QB early in that game and SDSU still had 9 fewer first downs and they were outgained in the game. Then they squeaked by Idaho State 36-28 as a 34 point favorite. That’s the same Idaho State team that just lost 78-28 vs Utah State last Saturday and has a record of 2-22 SU their last 24 games! Last week they finally faced a formidable opponents and UCLA blasted them on the road 35-10 with the Aztecs allowing over 8.0 YPP while being held to just 3.6 YPP. It could have been worse as UCLA led 28-10 at half but fumbled on 2 of their 5 possessions in the 2nd half including once inside the SDSU 10 yard line. Throw out their game vs a terrible FCS opponent (Idaho State) and San Diego State is averaging just 15 PPG and ranks outside the top 100 in scoring (15 PPG), total offense (284 YPG) and offensive efficiency (4.3 YPP). We don’t think they can keep up with Oregon State in this game. The Beavers have scored 97 points in 2 games and their starting QB Uiagalelei (former Clemson starting QB) has been fantastic completing 73% of his passes with 5 TD’s and 0 picks. That’s to go along with a rushing attack that had put up 466 yards in 2 games behind one of the top offensive lines in the country. The OSU defense is allowing less than 2 YPC and facing a SDSU passing attack that is not good with former safety Mayden playing QB (just over 400 yards passing in 3 games). The Beavs have had to punt only 4 times in 2 games this season and we don’t see them doing much of that today vs a defense that allowed over 8 YPP last week vs a fellow Pac 12 team. We felt the Beavers were underrated coming into this year (we cashed with them in the opening weekend vs San Jose State) and they’ve proven us correct. This one will get ugly. |
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09-16-23 | LSU -9 v. Mississippi State | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU -9.5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - LSU got a lot of negative publicity for getting rolled in their season opener vs Florida State but they bounced back last week, in what could have been a flat spot vs Grambling, and won big 72-10. Even a closer look at that FSU game tells us the Tigers played pretty well for about 3 quarters before the wheels fell off against what most now consider a top 5 team in the country. That game vs Florida State was tied at 17-17 late in the 3rd quarter and LSU averaged over 7.0 YPP and the total yardage was pretty close with the Noles having a slight advantage. The 21 point FSU win was a bit deceiving. MSU has been underwhelming under new head coach Zach Arnett who was the Bulldogs DC but took over late last year when Mike Leach passed away. Arnett has never been a head coach prior to this so advantage to veteran Brian Kelly and LSU in that regard. MSU’s new offensive coordinator has tried to get away from the full air raid type offense and run the ball more, although it looks like the personnel that was recruited for the air raid doesn’t necessarily fit the new scheme. So far in 2 games, the Bulldogs have run the ball 78 times while attempting only 46 passes. That’s from an MSU team that AVERAGED 49 pass attempts per game last year leading the nation. And it’s not like they’ve been lighting it up on the ground. Last week the Dogs averaged just 3.7 YPC vs an Arizona defense that allowed 5.5 YPC last year ranking 128th nationally. Mississippi State won that game 31-24 in OT but they were outgained by 125 yards, the Dogs were +4 in turnover margin for the game, and it still took OT for them to win that game at home vs a lower tier Pac 12 team. Now they are facing an LSU team that we still have power rated as one of the top 10 teams in the nation. Last year when these 2 met, it was early in the season, MSU was considered the better team at the time, LSU was still learning Brian Kelly’s systems in his first year as HC, and the Tigers still won by 15 points outgained the Bulldogs 419 to 289. Now the roles are reversed and we see LSU cruising in this game vs an MSU offense that will struggle and a defense that allowed 6.0 YPP to Arizona last week. Lay it. |
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09-09-23 | Texas State v. UTSA -13.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA -13.5 over Texas State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the home team. Texas State is in prime letdown area coming off a huge upset @ Baylor as 28 point dogs. Baylor outgained Texas State 524 to 441 but also had 9 penalties. Coming into the season Texas State had 71 new players (2nd most in the nation) and a new coach (Kinne) who came over from Incarnate Word (FCS school). They played well last Saturday but also picked up a number of breaks and they are still learning a new system on both sides of the ball. They are taking on a veteran UTSA coming off a 17-14 loss @ Houston as a 2 point road favorite. The Roadrunners drastically outplayed Houston averaging 5.9 YPP to just 4.6 for the Cougars but had 3 turnovers (0 for Houston) which was the difference in the game. UTSA dominated in the trenches with 208 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC while holding Houston to only 101 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor was not happy after the loss. “We didn’t play winning football,” said Traylor. “Two-thirds of the triangle we did. We held them to 100 yards rushing. We were physical. I’m proud of that. Offensively, we rushed for over 200 yards. You can tell we can impose our will with our three running backs. Our passing game was not very clean. Obviously, three turnovers are hard to overcome.” Now we get a veteran UTSA team with 15 starters back after finishing with an 11-3 record last year, at home after a loss they should have won. Roadrunner Senior QB Harris (4 year starter) has been fabulous with nearly 10,000 yards passing and 76 TD’s and he’s coming off one of his worst games in recent memory (3 interceptions). You can bet he’ll play much better against this Texas State defense that allowed over 500 yards on 7.0 YPP last week. Meanwhile, we don’t anticipate the Texas State offense having anywhere near the amount of success they had last week facing a UTSA defense that held a potent Houston offense to 4.6 YPP last week. Teams coming off an outright win as a dog of 20 or more points have only covered 44% of the time the following week (Texas State). This line is too low in our opinion based on last week’s deceiving results so we’ll lay the points with UTSA. |
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09-08-23 | Illinois +3 v. Kansas | 23-34 | Loss | -107 | 43 h 21 m | Show | |
#351 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +3 over Kansas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. This line says that these 2 teams would be around a pick-em on a neutral field and we have the Illini with the higher power rating. The Illini won a tight game last week 30-28 vs a very good Toledo team. The Rockets won the MAC last year and we have them as the best team in that conference again this season. A quick look at the stats says that Toledo outgained Illinois but they also ran 18 more offensive snaps. If we break it down into a yards per play situation, Illinois actually outgained the Rockets by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. The staunch Illini defense, which finished 2nd nationally in YPP allowed and 4th in total defense last year, held a potent Toledo attack to just 5.2 YPP. The offense looked solid putting up over 6 YPP and new QB transfer Altmyer, from Ole Miss, had over 200 yards passing and 2 TD’s to go along with 70 yards rushing. They should be able to put points on the board vs a Kansas defense that finished 120th last year allowing 6.3 YPP. The Jayhawks picked up an easy win on week 1 vs a Missouri State (FCS) team that had a losing season last year so no big surprise. The final score in that one was 48-17 but the Jayhawks led just 27-17 with 10 minutes remaining in the game. KU is a bit overvalued coming into the season. After getting tabbed as an underdog in 10 of their 12 games (vs FBS teams) last year and they’ve been getting points 27 of their last 29 games vs FBS opponents. Now they are now laying a full FG to a team that finished 8-5 last year and had a winning record in Big 10 play. The Illini come in tested after a tight win vs a solid team while KU was not tested. We’ll take Illinois as a dog here. |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show |
#233 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State (-) over San Jose State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - SJSU has one game under their belts getting whipped by USC last week 56-28. The Spartan defense gave up over 500 total yards and forced USC to punt only twice in the game. San Jose did put up a solid 28 points on a USC defense that looks to be weak again this season. Last year the Trojans finished outside the top 100 in total defense which is head coach Lincoln Riley’s MO – great offense, bad defense. This week will be much more difficult as the Spartans face an undervalued Oregon State team that had the top defense in the Pac 12 last year allowing 338 YPG. Offensively, the Beavers should have big time success, similar to what USC did last season. This offense is underrated in our opinion. They averaged 29 PPG last season but we expect that to jump to closer to 40 PPG this season. QB DJ Uiagalelei who was the starter at Clemson the last 2 seasons, will be under center. Word from Corvallis is he has looked fantastic leading up to this one. He’ll operate behind a very experienced offensive line that we rate as one of the best in the country. The rushing attack averaged right around 200 YPG last year and with their 3 headed monster in the backfield (Martinez, Newell, and Fenwick) behind that offensive line we look for this to be one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Many might think that because SJSU played last week they have the advantage. That simply isn’t the case. In fact, it’s the reverse. OSU now has game film to prepare for this game while San Jose does not. Since 2005, teams playing for the first time in a season facing a team that played the previous week are 56-33 ATS (63%). We feel that OSU will be able to move the ball on the Spartans nearly as well as USC did last week, however SJSU won’t have the luxury of facing a bad defense this week. Lay it. |
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09-02-23 | Colorado v. TCU -20.5 | 45-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
#188 ASA PLAY ON 8* TCU -20.5 over Colorado, Saturday at 12 PM ET - There has been extreme hype regarding new Colorado head coach Deion Sanders but we feel the product on the field will come nowhere near the fan fare the Buffs have received in the offseason due to the coaching change. The fact is, Sanders cut bait with a vast majority of his CU players from last year and at one point in the spring they had only 20 scholarship players still on the team out of the 83 that were on Colorado last year. He’s had to scramble to fill spot with transfers and we expect the continuity early in the season to be an issue. Granted we have a number of new faces for Colorado, however they were brutal last year finish last in CFB in PPG margin and YPG margin. A huge jump will be tough for Sanders to pull off especially early in the season. These 2 met last season in Boulder and TCU rolled up a big 38-13 road win. Starting QB Morris was injured in that game and replaced by Max Duggan who went onto have a great season. Fact is, Morris beat out Duggan last year and is now back and 100% this season so we don’t expect a drop off at that key position. He has some top of the line offensive weapons to work with along with a solid offensive line. The defense returns 7 starters and let’s not forget this TCU team won 13 games last season and played in the National Championship game. That game, an embarrassing 65-7 loss to Georgia, gave this team some huge motivation in the offseason to come back and prove a point and that starts at home on Saturday. Someone who covers TCU closely told us that he feels this is one of the deeper teams they’ve had and definitely the most athletic in his 18 years of following the Frogs. With the temps pushing 100 degrees in Fort Worth on Saturday, depth will be a key and while TCU has a lot of it, Colorado has very little proven depth. We’ll lay the number here and expect TCU to win big. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 41 h 3 m | Show |
#145 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +7 over Minnesota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Huskers start a new regime with former Temple, Baylor, and Carolina Panther coach Matt Rhule at the helm. He turned around the Temple and Baylor programs and we have no doubt he’ll get Nebraska headed in the right direction. Unlike his first year stops with the Owls and Bears, he has some solid talent here at Nebraska. It’s not total rebuild as the others were. The offensive line is experienced with 120 career starts which is 2nd only to Michigan in the Big 10. New QB Sims has started for 3 years @ Georgia Tech prior to this season and has 4500 passing yards, 1200 rushing yards, and 41 TD’s to his credit. He has a big experience edge over new Gopher QB Kaliakmanis who started some games last year for an injured Tanner Morgan but completed only 54% of his passes and threw more interceptions than TD’s. Minnesota has relied heavily on their running game but lost the schools all time leading rusher Ibrahim to the NFL and his back up Potts transferred to Penn State. The Minny O Line ranks 108th nationally in returning starts to they have some inexperience up front as well. The Gophs defense was very good last season but lost 7 of their top 11 tacklers and we think that Nebraska can keep them guessing with this new offense Rhule brings. With Scott Frost at the helm, the Huskers found ways to lose games whether it was poor special teams play, turnovers, etc… They were close to being decent to say the least with 13 of their 17 losses the last 2 seasons coming by one score or fewer (8 points or less). This series has seen 3 games in a row decided by 7 exactly points and we think Rhule will clean some things up and they’ll play more efficiently. This is expected to be a low scoring game (43 is the total) and we like it to be a close one. Take the points here. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -12.5 over TCU, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Georgia has been the best team in the country all season long and we like them to win by at least 2 TD’s in this game. The Bulldogs came from 2 TD’s down last week to beat Ohio State, however UGA dominated the stats outgaining the Buckeyes by almost a full 2.0 YPP. The UGA offense gained 533 yards on just 60 offensive snaps for an average of 8.9 YPP! They were only forced to punt twice in their 12 possessions, missed 2 FG’s, and threw an interception that led to a short OSU TD drive. We don’t see any reason they won’t move up and down the field on a TCU defense that allowed Michigan to gain 7.0 YPP last week and was rated lower than the Buckeyes defense. The Frogs were fortunate in the semi finals to say the least. They barely won a game where they had 2 pick 6’s and the Wolverines were held at the TCU 2 yard line (no points) and fumbled at the TCU 1 yard line (no points). In that situation, the Frogs should have cruised to a win but the game went to the wire. Their success on offense was on the ground averaging over 6 YPC with QB Duggan completing less than 50% of his passes. We don’t think that’ll happen here vs Georgia who ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing 77 YPG on only 3.0 YPC. UGA has a big edge defensively allowing almost 100 YPG fewer than TCU and their offense just put up nearly 9 YPP on a team that has a better defense than the Frogs as we discussed above. Surprisingly, 5 of the 8 National Championship games have been decided by double digits. The last 4 were all blowouts with an average margin of 22 points. We see another potential lopsided score here and we’ll lay it as long as it’s under 2 TD’s. |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Michigan was in the College FB Playoff last year and got thumped 34-11 by UGA & they were down 27-3 at half. The players admitted last year they had a bit of a “just happy to be here” mentality as the Wolverines weren’t expected to be that good coming off a losing season the year prior. This year they are saying all the right things and completely focused on atoning for that loss and comfortable being where they are as they expected it. TCU is potentially this year’s Michigan so to speak. Their odds were 200 to 1 to win the National Championship prior to the season and the Frogs had a brand new coaching staff. No way they expected to be here and none of their coaches or players have ever been in this situation. Advantage Michigan in that regard. On top of that, TCU was a team that was behind or tied at half 5 times this season and trailed 5 times in the 4th quarter and had to make comebacks. They needed a number of breaks just to get here. Michigan, on the other hand, only trailed once in the 4th quarter this year (by 4 points early in the 4th vs Illinois) and they have the #1 PPG differential in college football with an average final score of 40-13. They are also in the top 4 in YPP and YPG differential and TCU ranks 13th and 24th in those 2 stats. The Wolverines 3rd ranked defense will be the best the Frogs have faced. In fact, TCU faced SEVEN defenses ranked outside the top 95 this season and the average ranking of the defenses they faced this year was 88th. On the other side, TCU’s defense is ranked 74th nationally and they are facing a balanced Michigan offense that runs and passes for 200+ yards and averages 40 PPG. We like Michigan’s experience here not to mention they are the better team. Lay it. |
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12-30-22 | Clemson v. Tennessee +5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
#268 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tennessee +5 over Clemson, Friday at 8 PM ET - Clemson is vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are not the same team that waltzed into the Final 4 of college football for 6 consecutive seasons from 2015 – 2020. The Tigers played a fairly easy schedule (55th SOS) due to the ACC being an average conference at best, and yet they were still only +0.7 YPP for the year. Compare that to Tennessee, who played the more difficult schedule, yet their YPP differential was +1.9. We just watched Florida St, who we considered one of the top 2 teams in the ACC along with Clemson, struggle with a 6-6 Oklahoma team (we were on FSU unfortunately). Our power ratings had FSU & Clemson rated almost dead even at the end of the year. UT was one of the top teams in the nation all season long. Too much is being made of the Vols losing QB Hooker to an injury. While it is a downgrade to new starter Joe Milton for sure, let’s not forget that Clemson will also be starting their back up QB here. True freshman Klubnik who was highly rated but has never started a collegiate game. He will definitely be better than former starter DJ at some point but making his first start vs a high level opponent might be asking a lot. Milton definitely has the experience edge having thrown for over 2,200 career yards and he was a starter at Michigan before transferring to UT a few years ago. In his 1 start to end the regular season, Milton and the Vols beat Vandy 56-0 and outgained them by 260 yards. While expected, it was still impressive as Vanderbilt was drastically improved this season (1 win from making a bowl game) and the Commodores had beaten Kentucky & Florida the previous 2 weeks. UT has got some good news when 2 of their top players (OT and DE) declared for the NFL Draft but have decided to play in this game. Other than that, we grade the opt outs of these 2 teams about even. When both teams were at full strength, our power ratings make Tennessee about a 5 points favorite on a neutral. Getting 5 is a huge and unwarranted swing in our opinion and we’ll take the value with the Vols |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -7.5 vs Pittsburgh, Friday 2 PM ET - Pittsburgh closed the season on a nice 4-0 SU streak, but it came against some weak competition. In fact, the Panther are 8-4 on the season but only 2 of those wins came against teams with above .500 records. Excluding Rhode Island, the teams Pitt beat this season have a combined 36-45 SU record. The Panthers have some solid defensive numbers, but again a soft ACC schedule has a lot to do with that. Pitt has not faced an offense like UCLA’s (3rd YPG) this season. In fact, the closest offense they faced this year would be North Carolina (17th total YPG) and they lost that game by 18-points. UCLA ranked 3rd in college football this season in yards per game gained at 510, 38th in passing YPG, 4th in rushing as they pounded 246RYPG to average 39.6PPG (10th). The Bruins offense put up a gaudy 6.8 yards per play which was 7th best in the nation. At first glance, it seems the Bruins defense struggled this season but let’s not forget the Pac 12 had 5 offenses that ranked 18th or higher in total YPG gained. The big player news for both teams clearly favors the Bruins as QB Thompson-Robinson, RB Charbonnet (4th in the nation in rushing yards) and WR Allen are all expected to play. Pittsburgh will be without QB Slovis, RB Abanikanda and defensive tackle Kancey, all three key players to this Panther roster. UCLA is looking to win 10-games for the first time since 2013 and should get a convincing win here against an overrated Pitt team. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
#256 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State -9.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - We know FSU is extremely happy to be in this bowl game having not played in the post-season since the 2019 season and not won a bowl game since the 2017 season. This game is in Orlando as well which will give FSU a solid home field (crowd) advantage. The Noles have some serious momentum winning 5 straight to end the season and their star QB Travis has stated he will be back next season. FSU was among the best teams in the country this season and their +2.2 YPP differential and +170 YPG differential was very impressive. It could be argued they are better than their 9-3 record as they outplayed 2 of their opponents in tight losses outgaining Clemson by 90 yards (lost by 6) and NC State by 80 yards (lost by 2). The Noles haven’t lost a game since mid October. Oklahoma had a very disappointing season. They were expected to be the top team in the Big 12 and contend for a spot in the Final 4. None of that came close to happening and they finished the regular season with a 6-6 record. While FSU is motivated in this game, we’re not so sure the Sooners will bring their “A” game here. This program is used to being in much bigger bowl games and this is a big step down for them. They will have to play this game without their All American RB Gray (1400 yards rushing) and both starting OT’s have left the program. When they faced a bowl team this year, OU was 1-4-1 ATS and outgained by 40 YPG. When they played against the top 3 teams in the Big 12 (only 3 teams rated in final playoff rankings), they lost all 3 by an average score of 48-19 and they were outgained by a combined 660 yards in those losses. We like FSU by double digits. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
#247 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas +3 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Love this spot for KU. First of all, they are thrilled to be here in the Liberty Bowl having not played in a bowl game since 2008. Arkansas we’re not so sure. We take that back, we’re actually pretty positive they aren’t overly excited about this bowl game. That’s because they finished 9-4 last year, won their January 1st bowl vs Penn State, and had very high aspirations coming into this season. A 6-6 season and a bid to the Liberty Bowl is not what they expected. The Razors have had as many defections as any team in college football which speaks to their probable lack of excitement for this game. All together, players who started a combined 95 games — 50 on offense and 45 on defense — for the Razorbacks will not play against Kansas. That is more than one-third of their total starts on both sides of the ball. The Razorbacks who won’t play against Kansas accounted for 3,410 offensive snaps (34.3% of all snaps), 2,583 defensive snaps (26.0%) and 787 special teams snaps (19.3%) according to Pro Football Focus. Not only is the motivation factor heavily in favor of the Jayhawks, their stats for the season were simply better as well. KU had a +1.2 YPP differential while Arkansas was -0.2 and believe it or not, according to the Sagarin ratings, Kansas actually played the tougher strength of schedule (4th vs 23rd). Jayhawk starting QB Daniels missed 5 games this season and they were 1-4 in those games. In the games where he started and played to the end, KU was 5-2. He’s back and healthy for this one which should be a big boost to the offense and they are facing an Arkansas defense that finished the season ranked 123rd nationally. Kansas had their struggles on defense as well, however with Arkansas missing a multitude of weapons, including 3 starting WR’s and TE, we’re not sure they can take complete advantage in this one. Jayhawk HC Leipold was an absolute fantastic post-season coach at the D3 level leading UW Whitewater to a ridiculous 6 National Championships. When he took over a downtrodden Buffalo program, he led them to 3 bowls (2-1 record) winning his last 2 by a combined score of 48-19. He’ll have this team more than ready to go on Wednesday. We like Kansas to win this game outright and getting +3 is a bonus cushion. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
#246 ASA PLAY ON 8* Duke -3 over UCF, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - Duke is thrilled to be here and highly motivated to win this game. The Devils haven’t been in a bowl game since 2018 and they drastically outplayed their projections under first year head coach Mike Elko. Unlike many teams that have a laundry list of guys opting out and heading to the transfer portal, Duke have just 3 players in the portal and none were significant contributors. This team had a season total set at 3 wins and they step into this game with an 8-4 record having won 4 of their last 5. Duke has also outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they were 3-1 ATS vs the other bowl teams they faced this year and outgained 3 of those 4 teams as well. UCF lost by 17 points vs Tulane in the AAC Championship game so instead of playing a game vs USC on January 2nd, they are stuck in this game which falls well below where they expected to be this season. Unlike Duke, the Golden Knights have been heading the wrong direction failing to cover their last 3 games by a combined 43 points. In those final 3 they lost to a 4-8 Navy team as a 2 TD favorite, nearly lost to a bad USF team as a 20 point favorite (UCF scored a TD late to win by 7) and got walloped by Tulane and outgained by 240 yards. The Knights starting QB Rhys is really banged up with multiple injuries and may not play which would leave them with a freshman QB who is 3rd straight because their back up already left the program. If Rhys plays, he’s nowhere near 100%. On top of that, their top WR O’Keefe (73 receptions) left the program and their offensive coordinator took the same job at UNC. Too much going on with UCF for them to be fully focused here while Duke is more than ready. Lay the small number. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State -4 v. Washington State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
#211 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -4 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Washington State opened as a 2 point favorite in this game and it has swing to FSU by more than a FG. We agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Bulldogs. WSU ended the regular season with a 7-5 overall record but did not beat a single team with a winning record and finished below .500 in the Pac 12. Their best win of the season was vs a down Wisconsin team who was 6-6 on the year and in that game the Cougars were outgained by 150 yards and had 12 fewer first downs. If we throw out their 24-17 win vs FCS Idaho, the record of the 6 FBS teams Wazzou beat was 24-48. Fresno is 9-4 this season but we feel they are better than their record. That’s because they played a number of games without their starting QB Haener who is an NFL caliber signal caller. He’s thrown for almost 9,000 career yards with 66 TD’s and just 18 picks. When Haener was able to play from start to finish, the Bulldogs were 9-1 with their only loss coming vs Oregon State 35-32 in a game where the Beavers scored a TD as time expired to get the tight win. FSU outgained the Beavs by almost 100 yards in that game, an Oregon State team that finished 6-3 in the Pac 12 and beat Washington St by 2 TD’s. Fresno comes in at the top of their game winning 8 straight games, covering 6 of those. The are facing a Wazzou team that will be without 3 of their top 4 WR’s, 3 starting LB’s, and both their offensive and defensive coordinators have moved on. The Bulldogs are jacked to get another shot at a Pac 12 team and we like them to cover this one. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
#307 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +2 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line screams KSU in our opinion. We have an undefeated TCU team facing a 3 loss KSU team who they already beat this season and is playing for a spot in the College FB Playoff yet this line sits below 3 at just 2.5. Lots of pressure on the Horned Frogs here while a very good Kansas State team can play loose. In their first meeting this season @ TCU, the Wildcats led 28-10 near the end of the first half but blew the lead when they lost their starting QB Martinez AND their back up QB Howard in the game leaving a freshman at QB from mid 3rd quarter on. After Howard exited in the 3rd quarter, the Cats gained only 43 yards from that point on with their young, inexperienced 3rd string QB. We have no doubt that game would have played out differently had KSU had either of their top QB’s available down the stretch. They are both most likely available here. We know Howard will start and don’t be surprised if Martinez gets some snaps to keep the TCU defense guessing. Last week TCU rolled up a huge win 62-14 over Iowa State yet only outgained the Cyclones by 47 yards but ISU had a bunch of turnovers including 2 pick 6’s for the Frogs. It was ISU’s final game of the season, on the road, with nothing to play for. Prior to last week TCU had trailed or were tied in the 4th quarter in 5 of their previous 7 games but were able to win and nearly half of their wins (5) were one possession final scores. They were fortunate to be +7 turnovers in Big 12 play as well. We think TCU’s luck runs out here and KSU gets the upset. |
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12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#126 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This seems like a line most would grab Oregon based on the situation. The Ducks are playing for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game yet only favored by a FG vs OSU. We actually think it’s a tough spot for Oregon as they’ve come off back to back emotional, down to the wire games the last 2 weeks. They were upended by Washington 37-34 when the Huskies scored 2 TDs in the final 3:10 to get the win. Last week Oregon played host to Utah and picked up a tight 20-17 win but the Utes had plenty of chances to get the W but had 3 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs 3 times in Oregon territory. Three huge games in a row can be really tough on a team and we have a feeling the Ducks struggle here. Their QB Nix is really banged up right now and didn’t look even close to 100% last week. OSU is flying under the radar right now. Despite getting very little publicity, this team is 8-3 and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Beavers had one bad game this year vs Utah in which they outgained the Utes but turned the ball over 4 times including a pick 6. Other than that, their other 2 losses were by 3 points vs USC and by 3 points @ Washington. They run the ball very well (194 YPG) and their defense is sneaky good ranking 25th nationally. OSU has beaten the Ducks 2 of the last 3 times in Corvallis and they’d like nothing better than to ruin Oregon’s Pac 12 title hopes. We like OSU + the points and think they have a great shot at the upset. |
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11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall -6.5 | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
#178 ASA PLAY ON 8* Marshall -6.5 over Georgia State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for Georgia State on the road facing a surging Marshall team. GSU played James Madison to the wire last week before losing 42-40. That game was a killer for the Panthers as they were looking to get to a bowl game for the 4th consecutive season and knew they need to win their last 2 games to accomplish that. Coming up short last week and now going on the road again is not an ideal situation. While last week’s game was close on the scoreboard, Georgia State was outgained by a hefty 168 yards but James Madison gifted the Panthers 4 turnovers including 2 fumbles that were returned for TD’s. So that game should not have been that close and GSU was lucky to even be in it. Now they face a Marshall team that has been lights out winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their only loss during that stretch was vs Coastal Carolina, who is already locked into the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, and Marshall actually outgained them by 136 yards despite the loss. The Thundering Herd have a great defense ranked 10th nationally and they match up perfectly with GSU’s offense. The Panthers have very little passing game and rely on running the ball. Marshall ranks 6th nationally allowing only YPG on the ground. Remember, Marshall beat Notre Dame on the road this season and held a potent Irish running game to 130 yards which is 60+ yards below their season average. This is Marshall’s final home game and with a win they can get to 8 wins on the season. Under a TD at home is line value for Marshall and we’ll lay it. |
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11-26-22 | Old Dominion v. South Alabama -15 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
#182 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Alabama -15 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We played against ODU last week @ App State and what looked like it was going to be an easy win, turned into a loss. App State (-16) was up 24-0 at half and up 27-0 with under 9 minutes remaining in the game. ODU scored 2 late TD’s to make the final 27-14 costing us a win. We’re coming right back and going against the Monarchs on Saturday. They are 16 point dogs again @ South Alabama which is big time value in our opinion. We have USA a full TD better than App State on a neutral field yet this number is the same as it was last week. The Jaguars are 9-2 on the season and still have a shot at the Sun Belt Championship Game. They need to win here and then have Troy lose their game (later in the day) and that would send the Jags to the Championship game. Not only that, a win here gets them to 10 wins for the first time ever as a Division 1 team (joined D1 in 2012). This is a huge home game for them. USA is really close to being undefeated this season with a 1 point loss @ UCLA (Bruins kicked a FG as time expired) and a 4 point loss vs Troy who they are tied for first place with in the Sun Belt West. ODU has now lost 5 straight games and over their last 4 they’ve been outgained by 680 total yards and scored only 34 total points (8.5 PPG). They are 3-8 with nothing to play for and on the road for their 2nd consecutive week. We expect the ODU offense to continue to struggle vs a South Alabama defense ranked 13th nationally. On the other side of the ball, USA averages 34 PPG at home this season and they are facing a Monarch defense ranked 117th. This has the makings of a blowout and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
#132 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Iowa -10.5 over Nebraska, Friday at 4 PM ET - A win here sends Iowa to the Big 10 Championship game representing the West division. We can’t imagine Nebraska will be hyped to play this game. They are out of bowl consideration and put everything into last week’s home finale vs Wisconsin and lost 15-14 when the Badgers scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining. It’s not as if the Huskers dominated the game and blew it at the end. They were very fortunate to be in it as they gained only 171 total yards and were outgained by 147 yards. The Nebraska offense has been shut down over the last month scoring 9, 13, 3, and 14 points their last 4 games. The last 2 weeks they were held under 175 total yards vs both Wisconsin and Michigan. Now they face an Iowa defense that is every bit as good as those 2 stop units so we expect very little, if anything, out of the Nebraska offense. So we’re laying double digits with an Iowa offense that has struggled most of the year. Can they do enough to get this cover? We think so. Taking a close look at their schedule, Iowa’s offense has played one of the tougher slates of opposing defenses this season. 6 of the 11 defenses they’ve faced are ranked in the top 15 nationally. All but 2 of the defenses the Hawkeyes have faced rank inside the top 35. The 2 defenses they’ve played that were not good were Northwestern (72nd ranked defense) and Nevada (96th ranked defense) and they put up 33 and 27 points in those 2 contests. On Friday they face a Nebraska defense that ranks 108th which is the worst Iowa has played this season. Iowa’s offense has looked much better down the stretch averaging 24 PPG over their last 4 vs defenses much better than Nebraska’s. If they get to that here, we think the cover. Big disparity on defense and in “want to” here in favor of Iowa so we’ll lay it. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#120 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Missouri +4 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Arkansas last weekend in what was a huge game for them. They were home dogs and needed to beat Ole Miss to clinch bowl eligibility. They did just that and now they are on the road in a potential letdown spot. Despite the win last week, the Razors defense has some serious deficiencies. The offense played great but the defense allowed 700 yards to the Rebs. They currently rank 121st in total defense and on the road they are 2-2 on the season allowing 32 PPG. They haven’t played a very tough road slate despite their 2-2 record beating Auburn & BYU while losing @ Mississippi State and @ Texas A&M, whose season has been a disaster. In fact, A&M’s only conference win this year was at home vs Arkansas. Mizzou is in a similar situation to the Razors last week. They are 5-6 and have to win this game to get to a bowl. Their defense, unlike Arkansas, has been very good ranking 30th nationally so we’re getting a desperate home underdog with the much better defense. The Tigers are 4-2 at home this year with tight 4 point losses to Georgia & Kentucky. No other team has played to within 10 points of UGA this year. While Arkansas was putting all of their time and energy into beating LSU to reach 6 wins last week, Missouri had a “semi” bye beating New Mexico State bad and you can bet they were also preparing for this game in the week leading up to that. These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules and their stats are pretty close with Mizzou +0.1 YPP and +25 YPG while Arkansas is -0.1 YPP and +16 YPG. The host has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series and this one is much more important for the Tigers. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
#400 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is an absolute flat spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels are now officially out of the SEC West race (LSU will play in the Championship Game) after losing 30-24 at home to Alabama last Saturday. They had a shot at the win pushing to the Alabama 14 yard line with under 1:00 minute remaining but were shut out on downs. Going on the road after that disappointment will be tough especially since they have a home game vs arch rival Mississippi State next on Thanksgiving Day. Not to mention, Ole Miss has only played one decent team on the road this season and that was @ LSU where they were rolled 45-20. The Rebels other road games this season came vs Georgia Tech, Vandy, and Texas A&M who all have losing records. On the other side, this is a HUGE home game for Arkansas. They need one more win for bowl eligibility and this is their final home game. Last week we were on the Razors and found out right before kickoff (along with everyone else) that starting QB Jefferson was being held out of the game. Despite that, Arkansas gave a great effort and nearly knocked off LSU losing 13-10 (Arkansas did get the cover). With Jefferson in the lineup, we’re fairly confident the Razorbacks would have won that game. He has been practicing all week and will be back in the line up on Saturday according to head coach Pittman. Not only is this the home finale, but it’s a game Arkansas has had circled after losing 52-51 @ Ole Miss last year failing on a 2 point conversion with no time left on the clock. The Razors also fall into a very strong system which is conference home underdogs coming off back to back home losses (so playing their 3rd straight home game) are 68-41 ATS over the last 40+ seasons. Arkansas is a very dangerous home dog here with a lot to play for and we’ll call for the upset |
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11-19-22 | Houston v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 42-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
#354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -5.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - These teams are both 6-4 on the season but ECU is the much better team. This is the Pirates first home game in nearly a month and their home finale. ECU is coming off a game where they completely outplayed Cincinnati on the road, a Bearcats team that is currently tied for first place in the AAC. In that game the Pirates lost 27-25 but outgained Cincy by +144 total yards. The Pirates also beat UCF by 21 points so they outplayed the top 2 teams in the conference while Houston didn’t have to face Cincy or Central Florida. ECU has actually outgained every opponent but one this season and they are +80 YPG on the season. Houston struggled at home to beat a bad Temple team last Saturday. The Cougars were outgained in that game and scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining in the game to win by a TD vs a 3-7 Temple team. Houston’s YPG differential on the season is just +13 and they’ve been overvalued all season long with a 3-7 ATS record losing to the number by a combined 55 points or an average of 5.5 PPG. ECU, on the other hand, is 7-3 ATS and has covered 3 straight by a combined 35 points. ECU’s top 20 offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, passing defense, and PPG allowed. The Pirates average 35 PPG at home this season with a scoring margin of +12.5 PPG and Houston allows 39.5 PPG on the road. Last year these 2 met in Houston and while the Cougars pulled out a win on OT, they were outgained by over 100 yards by ECU. The Pirates should be highly motivated here in their final home game, we like them to win this by more than a TD. |
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11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
#398 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baylor +2.5 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Situationally this one sets up very nicely. Baylor is off an embarrassing home loss vs KSU in which they lost 31-3 despite being favored. This week Baylor head coach Dave Aranda apologized to the fanbase for their performance and you can expect this team to be more than ready in their home finale on Saturday. On top of that, the Bears have been quietly waiting for this game as the Bears were in a similar spot to what TCU is in right now when these teams met last year. It was a November game, Baylor was 7-1 (finished the season 12-2) and sitting in the top 5 with a chance at the College Football Playoffs if they win out. They were favored on the road @ TCU by 7.5 points and lost 30-28 ending their hopes. Now the roles are reversed and Baylor can be the spoiler. TCU is off an impressive 17-10 win @ Texas where they were 7.5 point underdogs. It felt like a “if we can just win at Texas” type game we have a legit shot at the CFB Playoffs. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and their 9th consecutive week of playing games, TCU is in a really tough spot. The pressure is all on the Horned Frogs where as we expect Baylor to play with a nothing to lose mentality. The Bears have won 10 of their last 12 home games and since the start of last season, they’ve been a home underdog twice and won both of those games outright. They also have an amazing bounce back record of 21-4-2 ATS their last 27 games following an ATS loss. So Baylor loses by 28 points as a home favorite to KSU last week, TCU upsets Texas on the road and controls their own destiny, yet the Frogs are favored by less than a FG in this game? We’re on Baylor to pull the upset. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday. |
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11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
#212 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas +4 over LSU, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - Line value and situational play on the Razorbacks here. LSU is off their huge home 32-31 OT win vs Bama last week. The Tigers were outgained by 100 yards in that one and got the win when they decided to go for 2-points after their TD in the 1st OT. They also had a bye entering their game vs Alabama so it was a really good spot for LSU. Just a huge win and it will be tough for this team to play at their maximum level in a road game at Noon ET this Saturday. Arkansas is off an embarrassing 21-19 home loss vs Liberty as a 14 point favorite. The Razors outgained Liberty by 115 yards but were shutout on downs twice in Flames territory and threw 2 key interceptions. It wasn’t a huge upset by any means as Liberty is very solid with an 8-1 record and had Arkansas in a flat spot coming off a win @ Auburn with this huge match up vs LSU on deck. LSU has been an underdog in 4 straight games and now they flip to a favorite of more than a FG @ Arkansas? In the Tigers most recent road game they were a 1 point dog vs Florida who we have rated 1.5 points worse than Arkansas. Last year the Razorbacks were -3 @ LSU and now they are getting more than a FG at home in a perfect situational spot. We like the Arkansas ground game to have a solid day on Saturday as they rank 10th nationally averaging 235 YPG rushing and the LSU defense is OK (not great) at stopping the run allowing 140 YPG. LSU is a solid 7-2 on the season but they’ve had a fortunate schedule playing only 2 road games thus far and only 1 since October 1st. Arkansas needs one more win for bowl eligibility with only 3 left so this is a huge home game for them. We’ll take the points. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Central Michigan PK -110 over Buffalo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Buffalo has the better record here at 5-4 compared to CMU’s 3-6 mark but we feel the Chippewas are the better team. We have this game power rated to CMU -3.5 so we’re getting some nice value with this number. The Chips are off a big win @ NIU last week 35-22 and they outgained the Huskies by 136 yards. Buffalo had won 5 in a row before getting torched by Ohio last week 45-24 and outgained by 222 yards. Despite their 5-1 record over the last 6 games, the Bulls were outgained in half of those games so they’ve been a bit fortunate. That’s been the theme of their season as Buffalo has a YPP differential of -1.2 on the year and they’ve been outgained by 18 YPG. CMU, despite playing a slightly more difficult schedule, has a dead even YPP differential and they are outgaining their opponents by +26 YPG. They’ve been very unlucky in the turnover department as the Chippewas have lost more fumbles than any other team in the nation! CMU has the much better defense here allowing 1.1 fewer YPP than the Bulls stop unit. Central also ranks #1 in the MAC (conference games) allowing just 331 YPG while Buffalo gives up 396 YPG in league play. The host should also control the line of scrimmage here as CMU sports a +0.3 YPC differential and Buffalo is -1.6 in that category. If the Chippewas can limit their turnovers here, we expect them to win this game at home. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number. |
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11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
#362 ASA Play on 8* Missouri Pick’em/+1 vs Kentucky, 12 PM ET - Kentucky is coming off their “Game of the Year” against Tennessee last week in which they lost 6-44 in blowout fashion. Cats QB Will Levis struggled on the day going 16 of 27 for just 98-yards with 3 INT’s. That should shift the Wildcats focus offensively to the running game which has struggled this season at 117.5-rushing yards per game (106th). Not to mention, the Tigers rush defense allows just 116-RYPG which ranks 27th in the nation. Missouri ranks 18th overall in YPG allowed at 311 and have held opponents to 21.5PPG which ranks them 33rd. This Mizzo team gave Georgia their best game of the season losing by just 4-points at home. UK is 1-2 SU on the road this season and have been out gained and lost 3 of their last four games overall. Last season Kentucky was the much better team, and they were a -5.5-point favorite at home and won by just 7-points. More handle and tickets have flowed in on Kentucky, yet the line moved in the opposite direction. |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* OREGON STATE +4.5 @ Washington – Friday, 10:30 PM ET - Washington has won 9 of the last 10 meetings but the Beavers did win last year as a -2.5-point favorite at home. The weather conditions call for 81% rain and 17MPH winds which should favor the rushing attack of Oregon State vs. the passing offense of Washington (#1). In doing a comparative schedule assessment the Beavers have played the tougher schedule with games against Fresno State, USC and Utah. Washington’s toughest opponent faced this year is UCLA who they lost to by 8-points and were outgained by 89-yards. On paper Washington has the 21st best rushing defense in college football allowing 110.4RYPG but those numbers are misleading as they’ve faced 5 offenses that rank 82nd or worse in rushing O. The Beavers average 195.8-rushing yards per game which is 30th in college football and should have a big advantage here, especially in poor conditions. In fact the only rushing attack they have faced similar to Oregon State’s is UCLA who put up 184-rushing yards against them. Road team 6-1 ATS the last seven. Beavers 8-2 ATS last ten in Washington. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here. |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points. |
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10-28-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida International +6.5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
#114 ASA PLAY ON 8* Florida International +6.5 over Louisiana Tech, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the fight in this FIU team. They looked like potentially the worst team on CFB earlier this year but they’ve improved dramatically under head coach Mike MacIntyre. Since getting absolutely embarrassed by Western Kentucky back in late September, this team is 2-2 and has outgained 3 of their last 4 opponents. Last week they blitzed Charlotte as a 14 point underdog winning by 19 points outright. The Panthers outgained Charlotte by 116 yards and they led 34-0 in the 4th quarter before the 49ers picked up a few meaningless points late. FIU has covered 3 of their last 4 games, each by at least 2 TD’s. They face a La Tech team coming off a home OT loss vs Rice. The Bulldogs were outgained by 114 yards in the game and have now been outgained in EVERY game with the exception of FCS Stephen F Austin. LT has been outgained by 884 total yards in their 6 games vs FBS opponents for an average YPG margin of -147. Their defense has been an absolute sieve ranking dead last in the nation (131st) in rush defense, 130th in scoring defense, and 129th in both total defense and YPP allowed (7.0). The FIU defense has been respectable allowing just 5.5 YPP on the season so we have a big edge defensively with the home dog. LT has lost all 4 road games this season each by at least 18 points and while those opponents were better than FIU, let’s not forget that La Tech is FAVORED by a TD or more in this one depending on where you play. That’s a Bulldog team that has won just 2 of their last 17 road games outright. They als have issues at the QB position with starter McNeil and backup Downing both exiting last week with injuries leaving freshman Lyddy at the helm to finish the game. We’ll take the points here with FIU at home on Friday night. |
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10-22-22 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
#317 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +3.5 over TCU, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Very solid situation advantage spot for KSU in this game. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week and they are facing a TCU team that is playing their 5th consecutive Saturday and all have been big games so to speak. The last 4 weeks the Horned Frogs have played cross town arch rival SMU, Big 12 power Oklahoma (OU played without their starting QB), an undefeated at the time Kansas team, and a huge game last week vs Oklahoma State. Last week they trailed at home to OSU by 14 in the 4th quarter, pushed the game to OT where TCU won 43-40 on double OT. Can the Frogs possibly bring their “A” game again this week vs a high level opponent off a bye? We don’t think so. That was such a tough stretch of games we just don’t see it. KSU steps into this game with a 5-1 SU record (4-1-1 ATS) facing the 26th toughest schedule in the country. They have won 3 straight vs Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. The Cats have the defensive advantage here allowing 40 fewer total YPG and 0.4 fewer YPP. TCU’s offensive numbers are impressive, however we think the Wildcats will have some very solid success on the ground and control this game in the trenches. KSU QB Martinez (former Nebraska starter) has been very solid this year both through the air (900 yards passing and 4 TD’s) and on the ground (546 yards rushing) and can be very difficult to defend. TCU has decent defensive numbers vs the rush, however this will be the best running team they’ve faced this season (KSU ranks 7th nationally at 244 rush YPG). The one similar type team TCU faced was Kansas who has a mobile QB and can run the ball. In that game KU’s QB Daniels went out early in the game and the Jayhawks were still able to put up nearly 200 yards rushing. The early week forecast calls for 20 MPH winds which will definitely benefit KSU as TCU passes the ball much more often (10 more attempts per game). This one sets up very nicely for the dog and we’ll grab Kansas State. |
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10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State. |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +4 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:30PM ET - Kentucky got off to a great start to the season but has now lost two straight games. The Cats most recent loss to South Carolina has impacted this line and given us more value with the home underdog. Last week UK was without future NFL 1st rounder QB Will Levis who practiced this week and is back for this game. Additionally, this is a spot to sell high on Mississippi State, who is off a pair of huge SEC wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a monster game on deck against Alabama. The Bulldogs benefitted from facing a pair of back up QB’s in their last two wins and were +5 in turnovers. The MSU defense still gave up 483-total yards to Arkansas and 388-yards to Texas A&M. The one road game against a comparable opponent to Kentucky was versus LSU and the Bulldogs were outgained by 129-yards and lost by 15-points. The Wildcats should have success with their running game against a Bulldog defense that gives up 139.8-rushing yards per game (56th) which will then open up the passing attack for Levis. Kentucky also allows the 14th least passing yards per game at 182.2 with opponents completing just 15.8-pass attempts per game which is 13th in the nation. Last season MISS ST won at home 31-17 as a 1-point favorite. The home team has covered 8-straight in this series with the host winning by an average of +15.5PPG. |
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10-15-22 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -6.5 | 27-47 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
#198 ASA PLAY ON 8* North Texas -6.5 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on La Tech last week in a perfect situation for the Bulldogs. They were coming off a bye week and were facing UTEP who was playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. On top of that, 3 of UTEP’s previous 4 opponents were ranked among the worst college teams in the country and the Miners lost one of those games and won two which were both down to the wire. Despite our win with LT, we were unimpressed to say the least. In the 10 point win the Bulldogs were outgained by 120 yards and allowed over 500 yards to a UTEP offense that came into the game ranked 92nd in total offense. Even worse, the allowed the Miners to control the line of scrimmage with UTEP putting up 181 yards rushing on 4.8 YPC compared to 114 yards on 3.5 YPC for Tech. UTEP came into the game ranked 87th averaging only 3.7 YPC. Those defensive numbers for LT will be a huge problem in this game. That’s because North Texas is among the best rushing teams in the nation averaging 217 YPG (16th nationally) on 4.6 YPC. The Mean Green should have a field day on the ground vs a Tech defense allowing 220 YPG on 5.5 YPC. Those poor rush defense numbers come vs teams ranked 37th, 50th, 67th, and 87th in rushing offense. Subtract their game vs FCS Stephen F Austin and the Bulldogs have been outgained in every game. They are -80 YPG on the season and they’ve been outyarded on the ground by an average of 120 YPG. Not only can UNT run the ball very well, they have an experienced 3 year starter at QB, Austin Aune, that has thrown for nearly 6,000 career yards and 38 TD’s. This offense will be a big problem for a LT defense that ranks 119th nationally in YPG allowed and 123rd in PPG allowed at 37.2. The Mean Green are rested and they’ve been waiting for this game after losing 24-17 @ La Tech last season despite outgaining the Bulldogs in that game and crushing them on the ground 241 to 79. We’ll lay it with North Texas in this one. |
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10-15-22 | Kent State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#117 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent +8 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We always take a strong look at underdogs that have a potent offense and that’s what we have here. And we’re getting more than a TD which is a bonus. Kent’s overall offensive numbers aren’t spectacular this season, however much of that has to do with the schedule they’ve played. They’ve already faced Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington this season and their strength of schedule is ranked 26th nationally. Compare that to Toledo’s SOS which is 135th and we feel Kent is more prepared for this match up. When stepping away from those high level Power 5 teams, the Golden Flashes offensive numbers are very good averaging 39 PPG and 570 YPG in their other 3 contests. In their 2 games vs MAC opponents the last 2 weeks, Kent has put up almost 1,200 yards! They are coming off a close loss last week as a 5 point favorite @ Miami OH. Toledo is stepping into this game off a very deceiving 52-32 win over Northern Illinois last week. The Rockets were outgained by 75 yards in that win, they had 2 pick 6’s, they were +4 in turnovers, and NIU played without their starting QB. Toledo’s offensive numbers aren’t great (ranked 78th in total offense) despite playing a very easy schedule as we mentioned. Defensively they have some decent stats but besides Ohio State, who scored 77 points and put up almost 800 yards on this Rocket defense, they’ve faced a very poor offensive schedule with their other opponents ranked 68th, 71st, 125th, and 129th in total offense. Their 3 FBS wins this season have come against NIU, CMU, UMass who are all 1-5 SU on the season for a combined record of 3-15. We like Kent to give Toledo all they can handle here and we expect them to have a shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host. |
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10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
#408 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech -2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UTEP playing their 2nd straight road game (and 3rd in 4 weeks) after winning a tight one at Charlotte last week. The Miners were outgained in that 41-35 win @ Charlotte but had 2 defensive TD’s including a 100 yard fumble return which was a 14 point swing in a tight game. UTEP is 3-1 over their last 4 games but their opponents have been weak as they faced New Mexico (lost by 17), NM State (won by 7) and Charlotte (won by 6) during that stretch, 3 teams we have rated 122, 124, and 128 nationally (out of 131 teams). The Miners could have easily lost all 3 of those games vs very poor opponents. La Tech is in a nice spot here coming off a bye week. They’ve lost their last 2 games but played strong competition losing to Clemson (undefeated) and South Alabama, whose only loss was by 1 point @ UCLA. La Tech has also already played Missouri this year and they have a strength of schedule rated 20th nationally compared to UTEP which ranks 116th in that category. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Bulldogs have the better offensive numbers with more YPG and they average a full TD more per game than UTEP. The Miners have the better defensive numbers but they’ve faced 4 offenses this year ranked 129th, 125th, 112th, and 85th. The Bulldogs were favored on the road in this meeting by 6.5 points last year and they were upset by UTEP and now we get them at a much cheaper price, at home, and in a very good situational spot. |
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10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tech steps in with a 3-2 record but they’ve outgained every opponent this year but the Red Raiders were -6 turnovers in their 2 losses to NC State and Kansas State. In their 9 point loss @ KSU last week the Raiders had a shot but had 4 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs once. In the loss, Tech was +11 first downs, +14 yards, and +5 minutes TOP. They catch OSU in a great letdown spot here. The Cowboys have played one of the weaker schedules in power 5 (90th SOS) and they’ve been waiting and preparing for their rematch vs Baylor last week. That’s because the Bears topped OSU in the Big 12 Championship game last year. They played that game last week vs Baylor and picked up their revenge win but they were outgained by the Bears 457 to 379. It was the first legit opponent the Cowboys have faced this season after wins over Central Michigan, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and an Arizona State program in upheaval. Despite playing the much tougher schedule (8th SOS nationally) Texas Tech is +122 YPG compared to OSU who is +82 YPG despite playing an easy slate. Tech ranks higher nationally in both total offense AND total defense and if they can eliminate the turnovers, we think they can win this game outright. The Raiders have been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed 23-0 at home vs OSU last year when the Cowboys had one of the top defensive units in the nation. Not so much this year as the Cowboys lost 63% of their defensive production (20th most nationally) and their defensive coordinator is now at Ohio State. Tech is sitting in a great spot here and we’ll call this one down to the wire. Take the generous points. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
#421 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SMU +3 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Mustangs are desperate for a win coming in off back to back losses to strong opponents Maryland & TCU. SMU lost by a single score to each and outgained Maryland on the road and played almost dead even yardage wise to TCU, the same Horned Frog team that destroyed Oklahoma last week. In UCF’s most recent game they were completely outplayed by a below average Georgia Tech team but somehow pulled out the win. The Yellow Jackets outgained UCF by 119 yards but allowed the Knights to block a punt for a TD. In UCF’s only other game vs a legit opponent, they were outgained and beaten at home by Louisville. So the Knights were outplayed by both of their legit opponents and both of those teams (GT & Louisville) currently have losing records. SMU’s offense has been outstanding averaging over 500 YPG and 38.5 PPG. They’re defensive numbers aren’t great when compared to the UCF defense, however they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule. The Mustang defense has already played 3 offenses ranked inside the top 23 nationally including TCU who ranks 2nd in the country in total offense. When these two met last season, SMU was favored by 7 at home and outgained the Knights by 300 yards and won the game 55-28. Now they are getting a FG in this game. Compare that to SMU’s games vs TCU and Maryland in which they were +2.5 in each telling us this line is off. This game was scheduled for last Saturday but had to be rescheduled due to the affects of Hurricane Ian in the Orlando area. UCF has been dealing with the distractions that go along with this which isn’t ideal. SMU gets the cover on Wednesday. |
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10-01-22 | Liberty -3.5 v. Old Dominion | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
#137 ASA PLAY ON 8* Liberty -3.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - There may be some remnants of Hurricane Ian for this game with possible wind and rain. That heavily favors the team that can run the ball better and that is absolutely Liberty in this one. The Flames average just under 200 YPG rushing and they’ll be facing an ODU defense that ranks 112th nationally at stopping the run allowing 188 YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Monarchs can’t run at all and have consistently been beaten in the trenches this year. They have not topped 2.5 YPC in any game this season and they are averaging only 63 YPG rushing on 25 carries. They have been outrushed by a whopping 500 yards in 4 games this season and their YPC differential is -1.7. ODU steps into this game with a 2-2 record but they could easily be 0-4. Their two wins both came by 3 points and they had a defensive TD in each of those 2 wins. The ODU offense just isn’t very good. They rank 110th or lower in PPG, total YPG, and rushing YPG. While passing is the key to their offense, they only rank 76th in passing YPG. Liberty’s pass defense has been solid allowing 211 YPG and just 6.8 yards per attempt and that includes a game vs one of the top offenses in the nation, Wake Forest. Speaking of that game, the Flames outplayed Wake on the road in that game, outgaining the Demon Deacons by almost 100 yards, but lost by a single point. This number is a bit lower than it should be because Liberty laid an egg last week beating a bad Akron team by just 9 points. First of all it was a letdown spot after they nearly beat WF a week earlier and Liberty played their 3rd string QB last week due to injuries. The starting QB Salter is back this week along with 2 starting offensive linemen who sat out vs Akron. The 3-1 Flames have outgained every opponent they’ve faced this season while ODU has been outgained by every opponent they’ve faced. When these teams faced off last year Liberty was favored by 26 points and won the game 45-17. Now they are laying only around a FG this season? This should be a mismatch in the trenches and we’ll side with Liberty to win by more than a FG in this game. |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home. |
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10-01-22 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -2.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
#918 ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo -2.5 vs. Miami OH, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Buffalo was a dark-horse team of ours to win the MAC this season while Miami was one of the favorites. Both returned a ton of talent which was a big reason why both had Conference Title aspirations. Miami is without their starting QB Gabbert who was injured in the season opener against Kentucky. Aveon Smith has taken over as the starter and has not impressed anyone with his numbers. Smith is 32 of 66 for a total of 346 yards or 5.0-Yards Per Completion. He has just 6 TDs to 2 INT’s. This makes the Redhawks one-dimensional offensively. The onus will be on Buffalo’s defense to stop the running game of Miami. The Bulls haven’t been great in that defensive category allowing 169-Rushing Yards Per game which is 87th in the nation. In the Bulls defense, they’ve played three teams this season that all rank top 53 in rushing yards per game offensively. Miami (OH) is 89th in rushing offense at 131YPG. Buffalo’s passing attack which averages 260-Passing Yards Per game can exploit a Redhawk defense which ranks 106th in the nation allowing 270PYPG. Miami is coming off a big upset win over a Big Ten team in Northwestern, despite getting outgained by -86-yards. Last year Miami embarrassed Buffalo 45-18 and we expect payback here. The home team has covered 5 straight in the series and the favorite is 11-2-1 ATS the last fourteen meetings. Lay it! |
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09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
#105 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulane +2.5 over Houston, Friday at 7 PM ET - Tulane is coming off a tough loss, a game the absolutely should have won. They played host to a much improved Southern Miss team and despite losing 27-24 they outgained the Golden Eagles by 200 yards! The Green Wave were +13 first downs, +145 yards rushing, and +13 minute time of possession. Tulane missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs 3 times in USM territory. They entered the game off a huge road win @ Kansas State, which looks like a great win now after KSU just beat Oklahoma last week. It was their first loss and non cover of the season and they are +25 points vs the spread in their 4 games this year (undervalued). Houston, on the other hand, is just 1-3 ATS and their only spread win was by a half point. The Cougars are now -38 points vs the spread this season (overvalued). Houston struggled last week at home to beat a bad Rice team 34-27. The yardage was dead even and it took a Cougar defensive score in the final minutes to pull out the 7 point win (they were favored by 17). Houston is -50 YPG and dead even YPP differential after 4 games. Tulane is +200 YPG and +2.3 YPP through 4 games. The dog is coming off a shocking loss and the better team here. They’ll be ready and we like Tulane. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again. |
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09-24-22 | James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* James Madison +7 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible spot for App State here. They are now off 3 hugely emotional games to start the season and face a team that is in their first year of making the move from FCS to FBS. ASU lost 63-61 in their season opener vs big boy in-stater UNC missing a 2 point conversion that would have sent it to OT. Then they traveled to Texas A&M and pulled a huge upset winning in College Station 17-14. A&M has shown us they are not nearly as good as people thought (including us). Last week ESPN college game day was in Boone, NC for the App State vs Troy game so another game to get up for. On top of that, ASU scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game winning 32-28 in their first conference game. James Madison had last week off after winning their first 2 games by a combined score of 107-14! They outgained Middle Tennessee State and Norfolk State by a combined almost 700 yards. Their 44-7 win over MTSU looks more impressive after the Blue Raiders went on to win their next 2 games by 15 and 43 points covering those games by a combined 52 points. JMU was one of the top few programs in FCS over the last 5 or so seasons so their success thus far is not surprising. The Dukes have been very balanced offensively with more than 200 yards both passing and rushing in each of their first 2 games. JMU made it to the FCS Final 4 or National Championship game in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Their overall record during that stretch was 70-11. This is a great program that will come more than ready to play in their first ever Sun Belt Conference game vs a team that we would almost guarantee is in for a letdown this week. We think they have a great shot at the outright win and getting a TD is a very nice cushion. |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here. |