Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-30-22 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Bos/Min Over at 7:40 ET. Boston surprised most by going 92-70 in 2021 and made it to the ALCS before losing 4-2 to the Astros. Here in 2022, the Red Sox were 11 games over .500 through June 26 (42-31) but the team is only 20-36(.357), after losing 4-2 at Minnesota last night in the opener of a three-game series with the Twins. That leaves them 62-67 on the season, EIGHT games behind the third wild card spot, with THREE teams between them and that final playoff spot. The Minnesota Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in 2019 and 2020. The Twins were having a bounce-back 2022 season, owning a 5 1/2-game lead in the American League Central on May 24. However, that division lead has turned into a 1 1/2-game deficit in the Central behind Cleveland. The Twins are also THREE games behind the final AL wild card spot. Rookie Kutter Crawford (3-5, 5.30 ERA) gets the start for Boston tonight, while veteran Chris Archer (2-7, 4.34 ERA), takes the mound for Minnesota. Crawford has been ripped for 13 runs and 21 hits spanning just 8.1 innings in his last two outings, He is NOT having a good season and his road ERA is 6.57, while allowing a BAA of .304 (hard to expect much from him here). Archer has always been a HUGE underachiever in my view and he 'limps' into this contest having last won back on June 25. In his eight starts since that victory, he's 0-4 with a 6.35 ERA while the Twins have lost ALL eight! The Twins are seeking their FIFTH straight victory on Tuesday night, and I'd love to play them here (won 4-2 with Minnesota Monday). However, Archer has faced Boston 21 times in his career (teams are 7-14) with him posting a 2-12 record (5.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP). That said, I will play "Over" in this matchup against the struggling rookie Crawford. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-22 | Steelers v. Jaguars OVER 42 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX O/U Game of the Week is on Pit/Jax Over at 7:00 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet Saturday in NFL Week 2 preseason action from EverBank Field. The two teams are linked from Week 18 games of last year, when the Jags' 26-11 win at home over the Colts allowed the Steelers to finish 9-7-1 with a Week 18 win over the Ravens, 16-13 in OT. That result allowed Pitsburgh to finish in second place in the AFC North and secure the AFC's final wild card spot, in Big Ben's final season. Pittsburgh opened its 2022 preseason last weekend with a 32-25 home win over the Seahawks, while the Jags have already lost TWICE (coming off a dreadful 3-14 season). The Jaguars lost 27-11 in LA to the Raiders in the HOF Game and then again last weekend, 24-13 at home to the Browns. This seems like a good spot for the Jags, playing their final preseason at home with the update that most of the Jaguars starters will play much of the first half, it not all. That includes QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne and the starting offensive line. Likely to see their first game action of the preseason will be wide receivers Christian Kirk and Laviska Shenault. Pittsburgh's defense allowed Seattle to sored 25 points last weekend. Seattle QBs Drew lock and Geno Smith completed 21 of30 passes with two TDs and zero INTs, plus RB Dallas ran for 73 yards (just 10 carries) and fellow RB Horner added 41 yards on only FOUR carries (not exactly household names). That said, can one really trust the Jags, whose defense has already allowed 27 and 24 points. The Jags 26.9 PPG allowed in 2021 was among the worst in the NFL. Pittsburgh rookie QB Kenny Pickett was the talk of the Steel City last week after he completed 13 of 15 passes for 95 yards and led a game-winning TD drive in a 32-25 victory over Carolina. Fans have been clamoring for Pickett since Mitch Trubisky's first fluttering pass of training camp and he has a huge chance against the Jaguars to raise his stock. That said, Trubisky (4 of 7 for 63 yards with on TD) and Rudolph (9 of 15 for 93 yards with one TD) also played well. The trio of QBs attempted 37 passes, WITHOUT an interception. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-22 | Astros v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Game of the Week is on Hou/Atl Under at 7:20 ET. Houston entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs. The Braves were 51-53 in late-July of 2021 but went 37-20 the rest of the way and won the NL East (for the FOURTH straight season) before capturing the franchise's first World Series title since 1995 against Houston. The 77-43 Astros own a commanding 11 1/2-game lead over Seattle in the NL West, while the Braves have recovered from a 23-27 start, to climb with 3 1/2-games of the Mets in the NL East. The Astros squandered late leads in each of the first two games of a four-games series at Chicago but won 3-2 on Wednesday and then 21-5 on Thursday! Houston’s run total tied for the second most in team history and the team pounded out 25 hits. THREE players had four hits, including Alex Bregman who hit two HEs and drove in six runs. The Braves took the first two games of their series with the Mets, lost the third game (against Scherzer) but bounced back with a 3-2 win last night when facing deGrom. Tonight's starters are Lance McCullers Jr (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and Kyle Wright (14-5, 3.14 ERA). McCullers was 45-30 with a 3.57 ERA for Houston but didn't make his 2022 debut until this past Saturday, when he pitched for the first time in 305 days for Houston. His last outing for the Astros was in Game 4 of the 2021 AL Divisional Series against the Chicago White Sox. McCullers went on to miss the 2021 ALCS and World Series for the Astros due to a right flexor tendon strain and finally returned last Saturday to pitch six scoreless innings (allowed only two hits) in an 8-0 win, Wright entered the 2022 season having made just 21 starts (14 wins), going 2-8 with a 6.56 in four seasons. However, he's been Atlanta's best starter this season, going 14-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 22 starts (Braves are 16-6). After pounding out 25 hits while scoring 21 runs, I have to believe the Astros' bats will be much 'quieter' here, especially against Wright. As for the Braves, they are coming off a 3-1 series win against the Mets and should have their hands full with McCullers. This one has UNDER "written all over it!' Good luck...Larry |
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08-01-22 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Division (NL West) Game of the Month is on Col/SD Over at 9:40 ET. Colorado snapped a long playoff drought in 2020 (13 straight playoff-less years) but fell to 79-83 in 2021. The Rockies are "going nowhere" in 2022, as they take the field tonight at 46-57, 9 1/2-games behind the third NL wild card spot. San Diego ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The Padres challenged the Dodgers to open the 2022 season, but the Dodgers have opened a 12-game lead in the NL West. The 57-46 Padres do own the No. 2 wild card spot, but they are only 2 1/2-games clear of the playoff 'cut line.' The Padres welcome the struggling Colorado Rockies to town for five games in a span of four days beginning Monday night. The Rockies have lost SEVEN of 10 since the All-Star break and are only 16-30 on the road in 2022, meaning the Padres have a chance to strengthen their grip on a wild-card playoff spot. Monday night's starters will be Antonio Senzatela (3-5, 4.90 ERA) for the Rockies going up against Mike Clevinger (2-3, 3.38 ERA) for the Padres. Senzatela has made 12 career starts vs San Diego, going 7-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (teams are 9-3) but I'm not sure that is all that relevant here. Senzatela will make his 16th start of the season and his third since coming off his second stint on the injured list. Along with his near-5.00 ERA, he owns a 1.74 WHIP and .359 BAA. In his road starts, he owns a 6.57 ERA and BAA of .355! Clevinger was 38-18 for Cleveland from 2017-209 but was traded on August 31, 2020 to the San Diego Padres in exchange. It was announced in November of 2020 that Clevinger would need to undergo Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2021 season and didn't make his 2022 season debut until May 4 due to a knee injury. I sure DON'T trust Senzatela but the Rockies have been a thorn in San Diego's side this, beating them eight times in 11 games. Clevenger has made only three career starts vs Colorado but owns an 8.16 ERA. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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07-23-22 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Division Total of the Year (AL West) is on Hou/Sea Over at 4:10 ET. The Houston Astros entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs. The Astros, the team everyone "loves to hate' was 59-32 at the break, giving them a NINE-game lead in the AL West. Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The Mariners were headed 'nowhere' with a 29-39 record through June 19 but then went 22-3 to close the first half to reach 51-29. The Mariners won 14 in a row, the longest ever winning streak heading into the All-Star break but the Mariners opened the second half 10 games behind the first-place Astros in the AL West, after Houston began the second half by sweeping the Yankees in a doubleheader on Thursday. However, Seattle's recent surge has them right in the mix of the wild card race, but SEVEN teams are battling for just THREE open spots. Houston and Seattle opened a three-game series Friday night, with the Astros winning 5-2, snapping the Mariners' 14-game winning streak (one shy of the franchise record). Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Martin Maldonado all hit solo shots off Marco Gonzales to lead the way and upped Houston's lead over Seattle to 11 games in the AL West. "The crowd was into it," Astros manager Dusty Baker said of Seattle's fans. "They were trying to urge them on for No. 15. But I'm just glad that we held on and won the game." The starting pitchers for Saturday's game are Houston's Justin Verlander (12-3, 1.89 ERA) and Seattle's Logan Gilbert (10-3, 2.76 ERA). Verlander was shut down on September 19 of 2020 and would miss the remainder of that season plus all of the 2021 season (he underwent Tommy John surgery on September 30, 2020). Verlander signed a one-year contract with the Astros on December 13, 2021 and has been brilliant. Verlander is 19-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 35 career starts against the Mariners (teams are 22-13). He's 3-1 against them this year (more in a bit). Gilbert was just 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA in his rookie season but the Mariners went 16-8 in his 24 starts. That gave him a moneyline record of +$1,106 (3rd-best in MLB). Gilbert made four starts in a dominating April, which included victories over reigning division champions Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox. He was 3-0 (team was 4-0) with an 0.44 ERA, a showing that earned him the American League Pitcher of the Month Award for April. He opened May with a 7-3 win (5.2 IP / 1 ER) and was 4-0 (team was 5-0) with an 0.64 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a BAA of .180. Seattle then lost his next FOUR starts, as he was 0-2 with a 4.84 ERA. However, Gilbert is 6-1 over his last 10 starts (team is 9-1) and is once again a formidable presence on the mound. So why go OVER? The over/under number is tantalizingly low and note that Verlander's lone loss (in four starts) against the Mariners in 2022 was his WORST outing of the season. He gave up SIX runs on 10 hits in six innings at Seattle back on May 27. Meanwhile, Gilbert's made five career starts vs Houston and owns a 4.67 ERA. I do NOT expect a slugfest, but that's hardly needed at this number. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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07-17-22 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on Phi/Mia Over at 1:40 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. The Miami Marlins overcame all sorts of team COVID issues to end a 16-year postseason drought in 2020 but the 2021 team finished 67-95. The two NL East rivals opened a three-game series Friday night at Marlins Park ahead of the All-Star break. Philadelphia fired Joe Girardi on June 3 and Rob Thomson took over as interim manager and won his first EIGHT games and 14 of his first 16. However, the Phillies took the field Friday 10-12 their last 22 and 46-43. They were 9 1/2-games behind the first place Mets in the NL East but just a half-game out of the NL's third wild card spot. The Marlins began the series playing MUCH better in 2022 (.489 winning percentage compared to LY's .414) and at 43-45, were only THREE games back of that third NL wild card spot. Getting back to Nola, he has to like the fact that Miami has scored just ONE run in the first two games of this series but then again, isn't Miami "due." I noted already that Nola has been nothing special against Miami in his career and will add that he takes the mound having allowed 12 ERs over his last three starts (21.2 innings), giving him a 4.98 ERA. This one is Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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07-11-22 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of Month is on Bos/TB Over at 7:10 ET. The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays prepare to start a series against each other for the second straight week, as the AL East rivals begin a four-game series in St Petersburg, Fl on Monday, just one week after meeting for three games in Boston. The Red Sox lost two of three to the Rays at home and then needed to win two straight games to earn a split of its four-game series with the visiting New York Yankees. The Red Sox finished the week 3-4 against their division foes. Tampa Bay was happy to win two of three in Boston but then lost all THREE games at sad-sack Cincinnati, the first two games in extra innings and then 10-5 on Sunday. The Rays concluded their season-long 11-game road trip with a 5-6 mark. No one will catch the Yankees in the AL East, as the 47-39 Red Sox are closest, 14 games behind. The 45-40 Rays and the 45-42 Blue Jays are next (Toronto has lost four straight and nine of 10). Coming on strong from behind (looking to steal one of three wild card spots) are 45-42 Seattle (eight straight wins and 16-3 its last 19) and 43-44 Baltimore (eight straight wins). |
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07-04-22 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Game of the Week is on Tor/Oak Over at 9:07 ET. The Toronto Blue Jays missed a wild card spot by ONE game in 2021 but were a 'sexy' preseason pick to best the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees in the brutally tough AL East in 2022. Meanwhile, the Oakland A's entered the current season coming off their fourth consecutive winning season (85-76) but missed the playoffs in 2021, after playing three consecutive postseasons (2018-2020). The Blue Jays and A's open a three-game series tonight in Oakland with 44-36 Toronto sitting 14 games behind the Yankees. The Jays, Red Sox and Rays are only separated by ONE game and seem destined to battle the rest of the season for wild card spots. TWO, maybe even all three, may achieve earn wild card spots by season's end. As for 26-55 Oakland, the A's own MLB's worst road record, as well as the worst moneyline mark (-$2,013 at $100/ game).
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07-03-22 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Division O/U Game of the Month (AL Central) is on KC/Det Over at 12:05 ET. The KC Royals began the current season having missed the postseason in each of the previous SIX years, after making back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost) and 2015 (won). The Detroit Tigers have missed the postseason the last SEVEN years and are well on their way to making it EIGHT straight non-playoff seasons in 2022, as they are currently 30-46. However, that's two games better than Kansas City, which is currently 28-48, as the teams meet in the "rubber match" of this three-game series (KC won 3-1 on Friday, with Detroit winning 4-3 on Saturday). Brady Singer (3-3, 4.33 ERA) was originally listed as Saturday's starter, but was pushed back and will start the series finale for the Royals. He'll be opposed by Detroit's Tarik Skubal (5-6. 3.75 ERA). Singer is in his third season with KC and opened the 2022 season with a 9-15 record (4.62 ERA) in 29 starts. He's made 11 appearances this season, including eight starts. His first three appearances in 2022 were in relief but he was then optioned to Triple-A Omaha in late April. He returned on May 17 and went 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA in three starts. However, it didn't last. Over five June starts, Singer was 1-2 (team was 1-4) while posting a 5.97 ERA. Skubal was Detroit's best starter through early June, going 5-2 in 11 starts (Tigers were 7-4), while posting a 2,33 ERA. However, his success has not been maintained, as he's allowed 18 ERs on 25 hits over his last four starts, covering only 18.1 innings. That gives him an 8.84 ERA and it should come as no surprise that he is 0-4 in that stretch! The Royals average only 3.80 RPG (27th) and the Tigers just 2.99 (30th) but we have two struggling starters taking the mound and this over/under number is the lowest of Sunday's entire schedule (currently 7.5). This one is Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-22 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Game of the Week is on Mil/NYm Over at 7:10 ET. Milwaukee entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021 and were favorites to do so again in 2022. The Brewers were looking pretty good after a Memorial Day win left them at 32-18, atop the division. However, the Brewers have lost 10 of their last 12, falling one game behind the StL Cardinals in the NL Central. The Braves were 51-53 in late-July of 2021 but went 37-20 the rest of the way and won the NL East (for the FOURTH straight season) before capturing the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. In stark contrast, New York went 22-38 down the stretch to finish in third place at 77-85, 11 1/2 games out of first place. The Mets made the 2015 World Series (lost 4-1 to KC) and made a one-game wild card appearance in 2016, but they've been playoff-less the last five years. However, here in 2022, the Mets own the NL's best record 40-22 and are still FIVE games ahead of the Braves in the NL East, even though Atlanta has won 12 straight!
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06-06-22 | Mets v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* NL Total of the Month is on NYM/SD Over at 9:40 ET. The Braves were 51-53 in late-July of 2021 but went 37-20 the rest of the way and won the NL East (for the FOURTH straight season) before capturing the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. In stark contrast, New York went 22-38 down the stretch to finish in third place at 77-85, 11 1/2 games out of first place. The Mets made the 2015 World Series (lost 4-1 to KC) and made a one-game wild card appearance in 2016, but they've been playoff-less the last five years. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. Both teams are off to strong starts in 2022, as the Mets own the NL's best record (37-19), 8 1/2-games ahead of the Braves in the NL East. The Padres (33-21) welcome the Mets to San Diego just two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and currently own the NL's No. 1 wild card spot. The starters in tonight's opener will be Carlos Carrasco (6-1, 3.63 ERA) for New York and Blake Snell (0-2, 4.80 ERA) for San Dirgo. Carrasco went 60-36 for Cleveland from 2015-2018, but the previous three seasons, was just 10-16 with a 4.69 ERA. However, he has made 10 starts for the Mets this season and generally has looked sharp. Snell hasn't been the same pitcher ever since Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. With the Rays leading 1–0 with one out, Snell was pulled by Kevin Cash for Nick Anderson in the 6th inning after pitching a shutout with two hits and nine strikeouts. The Dodgers then scored two runs in that inning and would go on to win the game 3–1 and the World Series for the first time since 1988. Snell opened the 2022 season on the injured list with a strained adductor, the same problem he had during the 2021 season. This marks just his fourth start of 2022 and the 'jury is still out' on this former Cy Young winner. Carrasco has pitched 13 seasons in the major leagues, spanning 264 games and 217 starts but has never faced the San Diego Padres. That changes tonight but note that while he has a 2.78 ERA and a BAA of .233 in six home starts, his road ERA is 5.06 and his BAA is .287 in four road starts. The good news for New York fans is that he takes the mound for a team batting a MLB-best .264, while averaging 5.11 RPG (3rd-best). As noted above, Snell remains a question mark and I'll play the OVER in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-22 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Division O/U Game of the Year (AL East) is on the NYY/TB Over at 4:10 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays have been shut down at home in the first two games of their four-game home series against the NY Yankees, losing 7-2 and 2-0. Nestor Cortes allowed just four hits and one run over eight innings in Thursday's 7-2 win and then Jameson Taillon faced just one batter over the minimum, allowing two hits and no walks over eight innings in Friday's 2-0 win. The Yankees became the first club to post consecutive eight-inning outings by a starter and with their fourth straight win, have moved to 20 games over .500 at 33-13. New York owns MLB's best record and is currently 6 1/2-games better than 26-19 Tampa Bay, which has won the AL East in each of the last two seasons. Gerrit Cole (4-1, 3.31 ERA) will start on Saturday for New York, while Tampa Bay counters with Corey Kluber (1-2, 4.42 ERA). Cole allowed five runs and seven hits in eight innings against the Baltimore Orioles this past Monday. Baltimore reached Cole for four runs in the fourth inning, turning a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 advantage in what would be a 6-4 Baltimore win. Cole was saddled with his first loss of the season. Kluber (1-2, 4.42) is a two-time Cy Young Award winner who signed a one-year deal with New York last season and went 5-3 with a 3.83 ERA across 16 starts in his lone season in the Bronx. Kluber has been excellent against his 2021 club, as over eight starts, he sports a 5-2 mark with a 2.51 ERA. However, Kluber has lasted just 18 innings in four May starts, allowing 12 ERs (6.00 ERA), with batters hitting .303 against him. Then there is Cole, who is just 1-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays. The Rays have scored just TWO runs in the first two games on only EIGHT hits but should "get something going" here vs Cole. As for Kluber, he is NOT the pitcher he once was. 'Low' total means this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on Tex/Oak Over at 9:40 ET.
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05-26-22 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My NL 10* O/U Game of the Month is on Col/Was Over at 7:05 ET. The Colorado Rockies were 15-10 after taking two of three games against the visiting Nationals from May 3-5, but they have lost their last SIX series, going 5-13 in that span to fall to 20-23. Colorado is now NINE games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Washington Nationals opened the 2022 season losing their first three games to the Mets and have gradually fallen further and further under .500. Washington opens this four-game home series with the Rockies 15-30, 13 1/2-games behind the Mets in the NL East. Washington has gone 6-14 since it last won consecutive games on May 1 and 3, The Rockies and Nationals are each turning to a struggling starting pitcher on Thursday. German Marquez (1-4, 6.14 ERA) gets the nod for Colorado and Patrick Corbin (0-7, 6.60 ERA) for Washington. Marquez is coming off allowing five runs (four earned) on 11 hits with seven strikeouts and a walk in six innings during a 5-1 loss to the New York Mets on Saturday. He's got a 1.59 WHIP and opponents are batting .315 against him in eight 2022 starts. Marquez was pummeled by the Nationals in his last outing against them, allowing seven runs on 10 hits (including two HRs), in just five innings of a 10-2 loss on May 3. That's hardly news, as Marquez owns an 8.44 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in six starts spanning 32 innings against the Nats. Washington's Patrick Corbin (0-7, 6.60 ERA) is having a terrible season, adding a 1.69 WHIP and an opponents' BAA of .295 to his winless season to-date (team is 0-9 in his starts) to that 'ugly' ERA. He is no stranger to the Rockies. as Corbin spent six seasons with Arizona. He's made 25 career starts vs Colorado, posting a 4.51 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Just hard to see how this game stays under. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Finals O/U Game of the Year is on G St/Dal Over at 9:00 ET. The Golden State Warriors have won NINE consecutive games in the Western Conference finals, after a 109-100 win over Dallas in Game 3. The Warriors haven't lost in the West finals since erasing a 3-2 deficit to Houston in 2018, when they won the last of their three titles in four years by beating Cleveland in the NBA Finals. Golden State swept Portland for a fifth consecutive trip to the Finals in 2019 before losing in six games to Toronto. The Warriors can make it an even 10 straight wins, eliminate Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks and return to the NBA Finals after three years away with a victory in Game 4 in Dallas on Tuesday night. Golden State looks to become the first team since Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls to make SIX trips to the NBA Finals over an eight-year. The Warriors small-ball lineup of Stephen Curry (27.1-5.1-5.9), Klay Thompson (19.5 & 4.6), Jordan Poole (18.9 & 4.4 APG), Andrew Wiggins (15.9 & 6.9) and Draymond Green (8.0-7.1-6.1) is one of the most feared in the NBA. Then there is Golden State big man Kevon Looney, who was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis. He pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then made all five FG attempts in Game vs Dallas (10 points / 5 rebounds), before making 10 of 14 shots in scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Game 2. In Game 3, he had 9 points and 12 rebounds. Doncic is averaging 32.1-9.5-6.2 this postseason, while Brunson has increased his scoring by almost a 'TD' more in the postseason (22.7 PPG) than he averaged in the regular season (16.3). Doncic has scored 42 and 40 points in the last two games, but he NEEDS more help than just Brunson. In Game 3, Dallas' three other starters combined for only NINE points (Dinwiddie did have 26 off the bench). Key three-point specialists Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Reggie Bullock combined for just nine points (all of them from Finney-Smith), as Kleber and Bullock missed all 12 of their threes and all 15 of their shots overall. NO team has overcome an 0-3 'hole' to win an NBA seven-game series and Dallas won't be the first to do so. After all, the Warriors have been great at winning series in the Kerr era, capturing 20 of 22, losing only to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 Finals and to the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 Finals. That said, I just don't see Dallas going quietly. The Mavs scored 117 points (had 72 at the half) in Game 2 but scored just 87 points in Game 1 and only 100 in Game 3. Expect Doncic and his 'helpers' to put together a solid offensive effort in Game 4. The problem? The Warriors had 82 FG attempts in Games 1 and 2 plus 81 in Game 3 (talk about consistency). The Warriors are shooting 53.1% for the series, averaging 115.7 PPG. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-22 | White Sox v. Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* IL Ov/Un Game of the Month is on the White Sox/Cubs Over at 7:40 ET. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. They then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games. As for the Chicago Cubs (71-91), here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022. " Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss."
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04-26-22 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is Hou/Tex Over at 8:05 ET. The Astros remain the team everyone 'loves to hate.' Houston won the AL West last season with a 95-67 record, capturing the division for the FOURTH time in the last five years. Houston won the 2017 World Series (over the Dodgers), lost the 2019 World Series (to the Nats) and then lost it again last season to the Braves. The Astros opened the current season winning FOUR of five but have gone 3-8 since, after losing 6-2 last night to the Rangers in Arlington. Texas appeared in back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) but continued to be competitive, making the playoffs in THREE of the next five seasons. However, it's been FIVE consecutive losing seasons for Texas since 2017, including the team losing 100-plus games in 2021 (60-102) for the first time since going 57-105 in 1973. The Rangers won the opener of this four-game series against their in-state rival last night, the team's FOURTH win in its last five games.
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 213 | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The 1st pick of my STP is a 9* on Phi/Tor Over at 2:00 ET. Toronto won 50-plus games over a five-year stretch prior to last season (won the NBA title in 2019), playing .693 basketball. However, the Raptors 'dropped like a rock' last season, finishing 27-45 (.375). The Raptors were a .500 team in late January, but an eight-game winning streak got them back in playoff position. The team was a modest 34-30 in early March but ended the season winning 14 of 18 and wound up with the East's No. 5 seed. Philadelphia battled at the top of the East all season but in the end, Miami (53-29) won the East, while Boston, Milwaukee and Philadelphia all finished 51-31. Due to tiebreakers, the 76ers wound up as the No. 4 seed and got Toronto in the first round.
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04-20-22 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Division O/U Game of the Month (AL East) is on Tor/Bos Over at ET. The Jays and Red Sox opened a three-game series last night in Fenway with Boston winning 2-1. The Red Sox had just THREE hits and the Jays lone run came on a solo HR in the second inning. Expect a MUCH different outcome tonight. Toronto sends Jose Berrios (0-0, 11.81 ERA) to the mound, while Boston counters with Nick Pivetta (0-2, 9.39 ERA). Both will be making their third starts of 2022 and there is little reason to expect that either will pitch well. Berrios made his third Opening Day start (1st for Boston) on April 8 and recorded just ONE out against the Texas Rangers (allowed three hits, two walks and four ERs). He did fare better in his most recent start Wednesday against the New York Yankees, allowing three ERs with five strikeouts over five innings of a 6-4 win (he got a no-decision). I may have looked for him to continue to improve but he's 0-5 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in seven career starts vs Boston (teams are 16). Pivetta has taken two losses in as many starts, allowing four ERs in each and nine total hits, including three HRs. "Hopefully the mechanics are right," Red Sox manager Alex Cora said of Pivetta. "The timing of his arm and everything else is not there. That's why you see the velocity down. If you look at the games, the fastball wasn't great and the slider was OK." Pivetta said this following last week's start, "For me right now, that's what it kind of feels like. I didn't have that consistency with the velocity. Just didn't feel great. It was disappointing. But just gotta keep moving forward from here." I don't see him "moving forward" just yet, as in seven career starts vs Toronto (teams are 3-4), he owns a 5.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Bos/NYY Over at 7:08 ET. It's the debut edition of Sunday Night Baseball for 2022, as the Red Sox and Yankees complete a three-game series in the Bronx. Boston will try to avoid the sweep after losing 6-5 (11 inn.) on Friday and 4-2 on Saturday. The Red Sox let one "slip away" on Friday but then got just five hits on Saturday, with Alex Verdugo’s two run HR serving as the lone scoring for the BoSox. The Yankees had just FOUR hits on Saturday but two of the four were Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton each hitting two-run HRs to make up the scoring for New York.
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04-06-22 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Was/Atl Under at 8:10 ET. The 35-44 Washington Wizards and the 41-38 Atlanta Hawks get together at the State Farm Arena on Wednesday night in Atlanta. The Wizards are playing out the string but do enter having won FIVE of seven, including an impressive 132-114 win last night in Minnesota. Much was expected from the Hawks after they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals last season, However, Atlanta was just 17-25 through Jan 15, before a seven-game winning streak put them back in 'play-in' position (have hovered around .500 since that winning streak). The Hawks enter tonight's game having won 17 of their last 23, but saw their five-game winning streak end 118-108 last night in a loss at Toronto. Atlanta is tied with the Nets, with both teams trailing the Cavs (No. 7 seed) by 1 1/2-games (note: Brooklyn owns the tie-breaker over Atlanta). The current Wizards look nothing like the team did at the midpoint of the season, when guards Beal and Dinwiddie were joined by a trio of former Lakers (Caldwell-Pope, Harrell and Kuzma) plus undersized center Gafford as the team's "Core 6." Beal's season ended after playing just 40 games, Dinwiddie and Harrell have both been traded, while Kuzma is currently out of commission with right knee tendinitis. In last night's win at Minnesota, Porzingis led the team with 25 points, Gafford added 24 points with 12 rebounds off the bench, Rui Hachimura added 21 points while Deni Avdija chipped in with 17 points, eight rebounds and five assists off the bench. The Wizards shot 55 percent from the floor, including 13 of 30 from the three-point line. PG Young (28.2 & 9.67APG) continues to shine for Atlanta but PF Collins (16.2 & 7.8) has played in just FOUR of the team's last 24 games. Five more Hawks contribute double digits, spanning from SG Bogdanovich (14.9 & 3.9) to center Capela (10.8 & 11.9). Young led the team with 26 points and 15 assists in last night's loss at Toronto, followed by Huerter's 21 points, Hunter's 20 points and Bogdanovic's 19 & 9 off the bench. I expect the Hawks to grab the win here, as earning the No. 8 seed would give the team a much better chance to reach the playoffs through the play-in round. Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back and at this stage of the season, fatigue is a factor. After an offensive "outburst" by Washington last night (132 points on 55% shooting), expect the Wizards to play closer to their season form (108,9 PPG). Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-22 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Game of the Day is on Phi/Cle Under at 6:10 ET. The last thing the Philadelphia 76ers needed was a three-game losing streak to end March but that's exactly what happened the 27th thru the 31st. Philly did rebound in a big way with a 30-point 144-114 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday. Philly is back in action again on Sunday, taking a 47-30 record into a game with the Cavs in Cleveland. The 76ers are currently the East's No. 4 seed (last to get home court in the 1st round), two games clear of Toronto (No. 5 seed). Looking up, the 76ers are just a half-game behind the Celtics (No. 3 seed) and one game behind the Bucks (No. 2 seed). The Cleveland Cavaliers entered this season having gone 60-159 (.274) the previous three seasons but through Feb 11, were one of the league's biggest surprises with a 35-21 record. However, the Cavs have won just EIGHT of their last 22 games and at 43-35, have dropped out the top-six. They are now the No. 7 seed and TWO games behind the Bulls (No. 6 seed) with only four games left to play. The 76ers still have a decent chance to move up at the top of the East standings and while the Cavs will likely be stuck in the 'play-in' round, I do expect them to give it their best shot here. The Cavaliers will be shorthanded again on Sunday without center Jarrett Allen (finger) and PF Evan Mobley (ankle). "I think we're learning from our past," head coach Bickerstaff said after last night's 119-101 win at the Knicks. "I don't think we played particularly well in Atlanta. I didn't like the way that we played in Atlanta (a loss on Thursday). What this afternoon showed is that we can take steps and learn quickly. Before the game today in our meeting we watched clips of us at our best offensively and it wasn't a lot of ball holding." Both teams are playing the second of back-to-back games and both are coming off big offensive efforts. Philly, in particular, set season highs in points (144), three-pointers made (21) and assists (38). However, take note that these are two excellent defensive teams, as Cleveland has allowed 105.1 PPG (4th) and Philadelphia 106.8 PPG (8th). This O/U is too high. Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-22 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Division (Atlantic) O/U Game of the Year is on Bos/Tor Under at 7:40 ET. The Boston Celtics visit the Toronto Raptors on Monday night in a key Eastern Conference contest. The Celtics entered last season having made the playoffs in 12 of the previous 13 seasons. Boston made the postseason again last year but after reaching the conference finals in THREE of the previous four seasons, Boston lost 4-1 in the first round to Brooklyn. Boston seemed like a non-factor this season at 25-25 through Jan 26 but the team has won 22 of its last 25! Look at the standings right now. Boston is tied with Miami (47-28) for the East's No. 1 seed. However, Milwaukee and Philadelphia lurk just one-half game behind. Toronto won 50-plus games over a five-year stretch prior to last season (won the NBA title in 2019), playing .693 basketball. However, the Raptors 'dropped like a rock' last season, finishing 27-45 (.375). Toronto is currently 42-32, giving them the East's No. 6 seed (final guaranteed playoff spot). Toronto is just ONE game behind the No. 5 seed (Chicago) but also just ONE game ahead of the No. 7 seed (Cleveland). It wasn't long ago that there were all sorts of rumors that Tatum and Brown were NOT getting along AND that they "not playing well with others' That chatter is 'Gone with the Wind,' as Tatum is averaging 27.1- 8.1-4.3 and Brown 23.4 & 6.1. Tatum scored 34 points and Brown had 31 points in Sunday's 134-112 home victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves. "I think the main thing that we've seen is consistency over the last few months," head coach Ime Udoka said. "A lot of areas that we've really targeted offensively -- sharing the ball, defensively coming out with that mindset. And then playing with a sense of urgency, getting off to better starts, and so consistency is what we've done. There's no reason to go back on that. We see the success it's brought us, and the unselfishness is contagious." The Raptors moved past the Cavaliers by one game in the Eastern Conference with their 131-91 home victory over the Indiana Pacers on Saturday. Pascal Siakam scored 23 points for the Raptors, while OG Anunoby (17.4 & 5.4) scored 16 points in his second game back after he was out for 15 with a broken finger. Three more Raptors are averaging more than 15 points. PG VanVleet (20.6-4.6-6.7), SG Trent (18.0) and rookie forward Barnes (15.4 & 5.4). The Celtics will be out to clinch the season series with the Raptors, after winning two of the first three games between the teams. Notable about those three contests is the fact that the final scores have averaged 198.7 points. Both teams are coming off HUGE offensive efforts, as Boston scored 134 points and Toronto 131 points in their most recent games. Lots on the line for each team in this game and in EVERY game through April 10. What's more, the Celtics could be short-handed for the game. Robert Williams left the game Sunday in the third quarter with a left knee sprain and did not return. Al Horford did not play Sunday for personal reasons. Brown and Tatum have been dealing with sore knees. For Toronto, Trent has sat out the last three contests with a left big toe hyperextension, Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 132.5 | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Sweet 16 Total of the Year is on Iowa St/Miami OVER at 9:59 ET. Four double-digit seeds made it to the Sweet 16 this year. Michigan (No. 11) lost last night to Villanova and it's hard to see St Peter's (No. 15) beating 29-7 Purdue (No. 3) tonight. However, we KNOW that at least one double-digit team will advance to the Elite 8 because the 10th-seeded Miami Hurricanes (25-10) and the 11th-seeded Iowa State Cyclones (22-12) meet Friday night in the Midwest regional semifinal at Chicago's United Center. Who'da thunk it! Miami came into the season off an 'ugly 10-17 year (4-15 in the ACC), while Iowa St was 2-22 (0-18 in the Big 12) during the 2020-21 season! Miami coughed up a late lead in its first-round game against seventh-seeded USC before winning 68-66 and then two days later, the Hurricanes trounced No. 2 seed Auburn 79-61. Iowa State began with a tournament-opening upset of No. 6 seed LSU (59-54) and then essentially had a road assignment Sunday in facing Wisconsin in Milwaukee. However, the Cyclones emerged with another impressive win, beating the third-seeded Badgers 54-49. Jim Larranaga entered this season having led the Hurricanes to six, 20-win seasons in his 10 years, to all three of the school's 25-win seasons and to two of the school's three Sweet 16 appearances. By the way, I could also throw in him leading unheralded George Mason to a Final 4 appearance back in 2006. The 'Canes were awful last season (see above) but this year's team contended for the ACC title during the regular season, before losing in the ACC semifinals to top-seeded Duke. Miami is led by the guard trio of McGusty (17.5 & 4.9), Wong (15.5 & 4.3) and Moore (12.8 & 4.6 APG). Miller is a fourth guard and adds 10.1 & 6.0. Miami's lone big man of note is the 6-10 Waardenburg (8.4 & 4.2), although the 6-9 Walker contributes 5.11 & 2.4 in just 14 MPG. T.J. Otzelberger came from UNLV to take over at Iowa St and the Cyclones opened 12-0 and were ranked No. 8 thru Dec 21. The team couldn't keep up that pace but then came the two back-to-back tourney wins. A trio of guards lead the way for Iowa St, starting with standout Izaiah Brockington, who leads the team in scoring (17.21 and rebounding (6.8). He's joined on the perimeter by PG Hunter (10.9 & 4.9 APG) and Kalscheur (9.5). The team's frontcourt rotation is led by the 6-8 Kunc (6.1 & 3.9) and the 6-9 Conditt (4.9 & 3.5). Guard Grill (6.5) is the first player off the bench and each one of the just mentioned players have participated in all of Iowa St's 34 games this season. With Iowa St winning its first two games by scores of 59-54 and 54-49, it would be easy to say, "go under!" However, as Lee Corso loves to say, "Not so Fast!" Miami just scored 79 points in beating Auburn (despite making only 3 of 15 on threes) by using their quickness and experience. Both teams own excellent (and deep) backcourts and I expect BOTH teams to surpass 70 points in tonight's contest. This one is Goin' over! Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 215 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Mia/Phil Over at 7:40 ET. The top of the Eastern Conference has been tightly contested all season and Monday night the 47-24 Miami Heat will be searching for their third consecutive victory when they visit the 43-27 Philadelphia 76ers. Miami is three games up on Milwaukee, plus 3 1/2-games ahead of the 76ers and Celtics. The Heat defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 120-108 on Friday, giving them THREE straight wins. More notably, the Heat have won 15 of 19 to take over as the East's current No. 1 seed. The 76ers lost 93-88 at home last night to the Raptors (after giving up an early 16-point advantage) and could really use a "W' in this one.
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03-18-22 | Lakers v. Raptors OVER 224.5 | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on LAL/Tor Over at 7:40 ET. The Toronto Raptors return home after winning all five games on their current road trip. The Raptors' recent surge has moved them to 39-30 and into a tie with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the East's No. 6 seed. Toronto will try to extend its winning streak in a quick rematch with the Los Angeles Lakers from last Friday night. Toronto won 114-103 in a wire-to-wire victory over the stumbling Lakers. LA is 29-40 (No. 9 seed in the West), just ONE game better than the Pelicans (No. 10 seed) and only 1 1/2-games clear of missing out on the 'play-in' round completely.
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03-11-22 | Wolves v. Magic OVER 232.5 | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Min/Orl Over at 7:10 ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves were just 24-25 in Late January but since Jan 30, have won 14 of 19 games to reach 38-29. That gives them the West's No. 7 seed, just two games behind Denver (No. 6 seed) and 2 1/2-games back of Dallas (No. 5 seed). Minnesota is looking to earn a playoff berth for just the SECOND time since 2004! As for Orlando, its playoff hopes ended early (2-8 start) and after 30 games, the Magic were just 5-25. Orlando had some excellent teams from the mid-90s through the first decade of the 21st century but those are now just distant memories. At 17-50, the Magic were 'battling' the 17-49 Rockets for the right to be 'crowned' the NBA's worst team. The T-wolves are led by the trio of Towns (24.5 & 9.7), Edwards (21.3 & 4.6) and Russell (19.0 & 7.1). Malik Beasley (12.1) is the team's fourth double-digit scorer but note that SIX more players chip in between 6.5 & 9.3 PPG. Speaking of Beasley, Minnesota's 132-102 Wednesday victory over the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder featured a historic three-point performance by Beasley. He attempted all 17 of his field goals from beyond the arc, making a career-high 11 that set an NBA record for most points (33) scored via three-point shots only. Despite Orlando's putrid record, the Magic do feature SEVEN players averaging in double figures. PG Anthony (17.3-5.1-5.7) leads the way, followed by six more chipping in between 10.2 and 15.5 PPG. That group includes Orlando's first round pick of the 2021 Draft (Suggs at 12.3-3.7-4.4) plus centers Carter (14.4 & 10.4) and Bamba (10.2 & 7.9). |
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03-07-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 124-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference O/U of the Month is on G St/Den Under at 9:10 ET. The Golden State Warriors opened 18-2 but cooled some, before winning NINE straight from Jan 21 thru Feb 7. Golden St was 41-13 on the morning of Feb 8 and the Suns were 40-13. However, the Warriors lost FOUR of five prior to the break and then returned to play with a win over the depleted Blazers However, they have lost FOUR in a row since. Doing the math and it's EIGHT losses in 10 games, as the Warriors have fallen EIGHT games behind Phoenix. The Warriors are tied with Memphis for the No. 2 seed and now the Jazz are within 2 1/2-games of Golden St and Memphis. The Nuggets outlasted New Orleans Sunday in OT, as Jokic had 30 of his 46 points after the third quarter and finished with 12 rebounds and 11 assists to notch his 17th triple-double of the season. Denver is 38-26 (No. 6 seed) and just ONE game behind Dallas (No. 5 seed) plus 2 1/2-games behind Utah (No. 4 seed). Denver's won the first two meetings this season against Golden St but that point seems moot. Why? Read along. Golden State has already announced that Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Andre Iguodala and Gary Payton Jr. won't play in Monday's game. Curry, Thompson and Wiggins will sit for rest while Iguodala (back) and Payton (knee) are nursing injuries. Obviously, that makes the Warriors severely short-handed BUT they do catch a scheduling break. The Nuggets are coming off an overtime win against New Orleans on Sunday night, host Golden St tonight and then travel to Sacramento for a game Wednesday night. That means Golden State catches them on the second night of back-to-back games. One more thing. Jokic (25.8-13.8-8.0) was rested Friday and there was talk he might not play Sunday. Is it possible the Nuggets will rest him here, off last night's Herculean effort in OT? Go U-N-D-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | Top | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Month is on SA/Mia Under at 8:10 ET. Prior to last year, San Antonio had never missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons. Now, three straight is a very real possibility, as the Spurs are just 24-36. That leaves them 11th in the West, one game behind the No. 10 seed (last of the play-in' teams). The Spurs won 157-153 in double-overtime at home last night over the Washington Wizards and then caught a late-night flight into Miami for tonight's game vs the Heat. Miami lost in the 2020 NBA Finals to the Lakers, but last season fell to 40-32 and got eliminated 4-0 in the first round of the playoffs by the Bucks. However, Miami is currently 39-21, tying them with Chicago for the East's No. 1 seed.
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02-17-22 | Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 111-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conf O/U Game of the Month is on Hou/LAC Under at 10:40 ET. The Houston Rockets and the LA Clippers meet tonight in LA, as the NBA's All-Star break is set to begin on Friday (teams don't return to play until next Thursday). Both teams are coming off contests against the NBA-best Phoenix Suns (48-10 ), as the Clippers are coming off a 103-96 road defeat to the Suns on Tuesday, while the Rockets gamely battled the Suns on Wednesday in an eventual 124-121 defeat. Houston had a slim lead with 1:56 to play before the Suns pulled ahead. The Rockets own the West's worst record at 15-42, while the Clippers are 29-31, leaving them as the West's No. 8 seed. LA is just three games behind the Nuggets (No. 6 seed, the last of the guaranteed playoff spots) but are also FIVE games clear of the No. 11 seed (New Orleans. The Rockets played inspired basketball against Phoenix, out rebounding them 49-42, while taking 97 shots to 86 for the Suns. All that without Christian Wood (17.6 & 10.2) and Kevin Porter (13.7 & 6.2 APG). who were late scratches due to a stomach bug. Dennis Schroder scored 17 of his 23 points in the second half of his second game and first start with the Rockets. He added nine assists and six rebounds but had six turnovers. Jae'Sean Tate (12.5 & 5.6) scored 22 for the Rockets with 10 rebounds, while Eric Gordon (14.3) had 10 of his 20 in the fourth quarter. Houston's Alperen Sengun (8.8 & 4.8) tied his career hi14.3gh with 19 points and set a career high with 14 rebounds in his fifth career start. The Clippers have been without Kawhi Leonard (knee) all season and without Paul George (elbow) since December. The most recent injury was to new arrival Norman Powell (18.7 PPG in 40 games for Portland) who is out indefinitely with a broken bone in his left foot. Powell and Robert Covington (7.6 & 5.7 in 48 games for Portland) were picked up before the trade deadline to give the Clippers more firepower down the stretch, but it remains unclear when Powell will return. That said, the Clippers still gave the Suns a game Tuesday as Marcus Morris (15.9 & 4.8) scored 23 points and Nicolas Batum (9.0 & 4.5) added 18. The Clippers forced 16 Suns turnovers, but Phoenix shot 48.9 percent from the floor to 41.2 percent for Los Angeles. I'm assuming BOTH teams are looking forward to the break and with SO many missing and questionable players, I see this game as a 'dead' Under. That's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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02-16-22 | Raptors v. Wolves UNDER 230 | Top | 103-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Tor/Min Under at 8:10 ET. The Toronto Raptors have followed an eight-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, and they will try to rebound Wednesday night when they oppose the Minnesota Timberwolves in Minneapolis. Toronto fell all the way to 27-45 last season but that eight-game winning streak has them 'knocking on the door' for a guaranteed playoff spot in the East. The Raptors are currently just 1 1/2-games behind the red-hot Celtics, who have taken over the No. 6 seed. However, it should also be noted that in the East, Toronto is still within FIVE games of the No. 1 seed (Miami, which is 37-21).
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02-06-22 | Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 137-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Late Show O/U is on Mil/LAC Under at 9:10 ET. The LA Clippers acquired guard Norman Powell (18.7 PPG and 40.7% on threes) and forward Robert Covington (7.6 & 5.7) from the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday, and both are in line to make their debuts with the team. The move cost Los Angeles veteran guard Eric Bledsoe and forward Justise Winslow, among other pieces, but a scorer like Powell is what the Clippers were desperate to add. Los Angeles still doesn't know if stars Kawhi Leonard (knee) or Paul George (elbow) will return this season, but a mix-and-match roster has found some success. The Clippers have won four of their last six games and five of eight, as they welcome the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks to Staples Center.
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02-02-22 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 224.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Game of the Week is on Den/Uah Under at 10:10 ET. The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets enter their Wednesday matchup in Salt Lake City coming off losses to the same team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. In Denver's case, the Nuggets saw their five-game winning streak come to an end Tuesday in a 130-115 loss at Minneapolis. In comparison, not only did the Jazz fall 126-106 to the host Timberwolves on Sunday to extend their losing streak to five games (11th loss in last 13 games), but they also lost Joe Ingles (7.2) for the rest of the season due to a torn left anterior cruciate ligament. Utah's slump has dropped them to 30-21, 11 1/2-games behind the West's top team, Phoenix. In fact, the Jazz have fallen to the No. 4 seed, four games behind Memphis. Denver checks in at 28-22, placing them 6th (last guaranteed playoff spot) and just 1 1/2-games back of the Jazz.
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall OVER 146 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Conference O/U Game of the Year (Big East) is on Marquette/Seton Hall Over at 8:30 ET. Shaka Smart was booted out of Austin but has done quite a job at Marquette, which did not return a SINGLE starter from last season's disappointing 13-14 team. Few teams in college hoops are hotter than Marquette (14-6 / 6-3 Big East), which entered the AP poll for the first time this past Monday at No. 22 (more details to follow). The Golden Eagles' visit Newark, NJ to face a revenge-minded Seton Hall team on Wednesday night. The Pirates opened 9-1 and were ranked 15th, before losing FIVE of their last eight to fall to 12-6 (3-5 Big East) and out of the rankings. Marquette was 3-0 last week, beating Seton Hall, Villanova and Xavier (all were ranked at the time). Smart had a disappointing six-year run at Texas but despite a four-game losing streak this season, he has confidence that his team has learned from its earlier losses. "Losing four in a row... I think what you take out of that as a team is we can win, we can find a way to win those games, but we've got to be a little bit better in a variety of areas," Smart said. "And I think we've continued to get better." Marquette has a deep eight-man rotation, led by 6-7 freshman Lewis (15.8 & 7.9) and Maryland transfer, Morsell (13.9 & 3.5). Joining that duo in the starting lineup are freshman guard Kolek (6.4 & 4.0) plus frontcourt players like the 6-8 Prosper (5.8 & 3.4) and the 6-10 Kuath (5.4 & 4.5), Adding depth are guard Elliott (8.1), freshman guard Jones (7.7) and 6-9 freshman Ighodaro (6.3 & 3.7). Kevin Willard took over at Seton hall for the 2010-11 season and had led the Pirates to four straight NCAA tournaments before the 2020 tournament was canceled because of COVID (Seton Hall was 21-9). However, the Pirates were just 14-13 last year and lost to the 6-10 Mamukelashvili (17.5 & 7.6), who was co-player-of-the-year in the Big East. However, the Pirates have EIGHT players scoring between 6.5 and 15.7 PPG. 6-6 swingman Rhoden leads in scoring (15.7), while adding 6.9 RPG. Senior guards Aiken (14.5) and Cole (10.0 & 4.1) join Rhoden in double digits. The 6-8 Yetna just misses at 9.9 PPG but is the team's leading rebounder at 7.9 per game. Two 6-10 players, Samuel (8.5 & 6.3) and Jackson (7.2 & 3.9) plus guards Richmond (8.1-3.7-3.7) and Harris (6.5) complete Seton Hall's 'Great 8.' Marquette hosted Seton Hall back on Jan 15 in a back-and-forth affair, decided by a controversial late whistle. With the game tied at 72, Marquette's Greg Elliott leaned into the Pirates' Bryce Aiken while attempting a shot, elbowing Aiken in the nose. However, the officials called the foul on Aiken, and Elliott's free throw with one second left won the game for Marquette. Aiken scored 28 points that day but entered concussion protocol and hasn't played since. That said, as noted above, Seton Hall has the depth to 'cover' Aiken's absence. That Jan 15 game ended 73-72 but I expect a higher-scoring game here, one in which Seton Hall avenges that loss with an OUTSTANDING offensive effort. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Division Round O/U Game of the Year is on LAR/TB Under at 3:30 ET. The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle. That set the stage for the Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. It was a "no-contest," as the Rams were up 28-0 in the late third quarter on their way to a 34-11 (BTW...The Rams were my 10* Wild Card GOY pick!). Stafford picked up his first career playoff win (was 0-3 with the Lions), throwing a modest 17 times, completing 13 for 202 yards with two TDs and no INTs. RBs Michel (58 yards) and Akers (55) allowed the Rams to run for 140 yards, 41 yards more than the team's 99.0 YPG average on the season. The Rams defense, which somewhat underachieved this season, held the Cards to just 183 total yards.
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01-19-22 | Raptors v. Mavs OVER 206.5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Total of the Year is on Tor/Dal Over at 8:40 ET. The No. 7 thru No. 10 seeds in both conferences enter the "Play-In" tourney to decide the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds. Toronto has won SEVEN of 10 and at 21-20, is the current No. 9 seed in the East. The Raptors are three games back of the No. 6 seed but just ONE game ahead of the No. 11 seed. Dallas has won NINE of 10 to reach 25-19, giving the No. 5 seed in the West, three games clear of the No. 7 seed. Toronto's top-three scorers have led the way. PG Fred VanVleet (21.9-4.8-6.7), PF Pascal Siakam (21.1-8.5-5.0) and SF Anunoby (19.2 & 5.o), who is having a career season). The Raptors also have two more significant scorers in Trent (16.4) and Florida rookie Barnes (14.5 & 7.9). Barnes is back after a knee injury but Trent remains out (??). Luka Doncic (24.6-8.6-8.8) had his fifth triple-double of the season with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists in the Mavs' most recent win, recording his 41st career triple-double. Kristaps Porzingis (20.3 & 7.9) added 13 points and eight rebounds on Monday. Porzingis and Doncic played together for the second consecutive game, the first time they have both been active for back-to-back games since Dec 8-10. PF Kleber (7.4 & 5.8) and guard Bullock (6.4) are out but the Mavs are pretty healthy right now. Guard Brunson (16.0 & 5.7 APG), swingman Hardaway (14.5) and SF Finney-Smith (10.5 & 4.8) all average in double digits. These teams met way back on oct 23, with Dallas winning 103-95. Do NOT expect a similar low-scoring contest here! Note that both Doncic and Porzingis have done well against Toronto. Doncic is averaging 24.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.8 assists in six career appearances against the Raptors, including two triple-doubles. As for Porzingis, he has faced Toronto five times (since coming to Dallas) and averaged 20.2 points and 11.2 rebounds with four double-doubles. This O/U number is way too low. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card O/U Game of the Year is on SF/Dal Under at 4:30 ET. The San Francisco 49ers opened 2-0 but then lost four in a row (and five of six), to fall to 3-5. However, the 49ers closed on a 7-2 run, including winning 27-24 (in OT) at the LA Rams (trailed 17-0) to clinch the NFC's No. 6 seed at 10-7 in Week 18. The Dallas Cowboys lost their season opener 31-29 at Tampa (on a last second FG) but then won SIX in a row. Three losses in their next four followed but after a 36-33 OT loss to the Raiders in Dallas on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys would win four straight, lose 25-22 at home vs Arizona in Week 17 and rout the Eagles 51-26 in Philly in Week 18. Dallas finished 12-5, including an NFL-best 13-4 ATS. Dallas has Super Bowl 'dreams' but gets a tough matchup in San Francisco, which boasts a strong running game and a stronger run defense. RB Mitchell has 963 yards on 4.7 YPFC with 5 TDs plus WR Deebo Samuel has run for 365 yards on 6.2 YPC with 5 TDs. The 49ers are averaging 127.4 YPG rushing (7th) and the running game has made it a little easier for the oft-criticized Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G should have answered his critics with excellent play down the stretch, finishing the season by completing 68.3% for 3,810 yards with 20 TDs and 12 TDs. WR Samuel was just named to the All-Pro team and it's well-deserved. His contributions to the running game have been HUGE, plus he's caught 77 passes with a 18.2 YPC average and 6 TDs. Fellow WR Aiyuk has 56 catches (14.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Kittle caught 71 passes with 6 TDs, despite missing three games. The San Francisco D is allowing 21.5 PPG and is holding opponents to just 103.5 YPG on the ground (7th). Dak Prescott is coming off a Week 18 game in which he completed 21 of 27 attempts for 295 yards and five TDs in just over three quarters of action. He's completing 68.8% for 4,449 yards with 37 TDs and 10 INTs, helping Dallas lead the NFL in scoring at 31.2 PPG. This year's team set a franchise record with 22 different players scoring at least one TD. The RB duo of Elliott (1,002 / 4.2 YPC / 10 TDs / 47 catches) and Pollard (719 yards on 5.5 YPC with 2 TDs) looks good on paper but I'll add a comment later. Lamb (79 catches / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs), Cooper (68 catches / 12.7 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wilson (45 catches / 6 TDs) plus TE Schultz (78 catches / 8 TDs) provide a plethora of options for Dak. The Dallas offense gets all the accolades but the team's defense is allowing 21.1 PPG (7th), while leading the NFL with 34 takeaways. Zeke may have had a 1,000-yard season (no big deal with a 17-game schedule) and 10 rushing TDs but his 87 yards rushing in Week 18, was the first time he had more than 69 yards rushing in a game in his last 12 contests! Meanwhile, there might not be a more physical team than the 49ers and they match up well against Dallas because of their ground game and quick, short passing attack. Both teams play excellent defense and I see a much lower scoring game than the posted O/U line. Let's call it, "Under Downunder!" Good luck...Larry |
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01-15-22 | Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 219.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* East Conf O/U Game of the Month is on Chi/Bos Under at 8:40 ET. Both the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics will attempt to get back in the win column when they meet Saturday night in Boston. Chicago was blown out at home 138-96 by the Golden State Warriors last night, while the Celtics fell 111-99 at home to Philadelphia. The Chicago Bulls were 31-41 last season, missing the postseason for the FOURTH consecutive year but have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. The Bulls sit atop the East with a 27-13 record but not only were they blown out last night by Golden St, they suffered the same fat Wednesday night at home, losing 138-112 to the Brooklyn Nets. Boston's first-year head coach Ime Udoka has seen his two superstars Tatum and Brown struggle at times to blend together and with the rest of the team, which partly explains Boston's 21-22 record. At the moment, Boston sits a half-game behind the East's No. 10 seed, the last of the seeds to make the "Play-In" round.
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01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Late Show O/U play is on Mem/LAL Under at 9:40 ET. The Memphis Grizzlies lost 132-110 to the Hawks on Nov 26, giving them a 9-10 record. However, the Grizzlies have won18 of 2 since, as Memphis now owns a 27-14 record, good enough for the Western Conference's No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies will take an EIGHT-game winning streak into tonight's game with the Lakers, after a 123-108 win over the Clippers last night. The win came with head coach Taylor Jenkins on the sideline (COVID-19 protocol) and leading scorer Ja Morant (25.0-5.8-6.6) sitting out with soreness in his left thigh. The Grizzlies WON'T have to travel, as they are back in Staples Center again, to face the Lakers, whose four-game winning streak has them two games over .500 at 21-19. The Lakers are beginning to get healthy after being shorthanded most of the season and that's helped them produce their longest winning streak of the season. |
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01-09-22 | 49ers v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U play is on SF/LAR Over at 4:25 ET. The San Francisco 49ers opened the season 3-5 but have been able to win SIX of their last eight games to reach 9-7 as they visit the Rams Sunday afternoon at Sofi Stadium. The Los Angeles Rams opened 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row to fall to 7-4. Meanwhile, Arizona was 9-2 after 11 games, so the Rams seemed destined for at best, a wild card spot. However, the Rams enter this contest on a FIVE-game winning streak to get to 12-4, while the Cards have fallen to 10-5. Both the Rams and Cards have clinched playoff spots but the Rams will capture the NFC West with a win over the 49ers, or a loss by the Cards. As for the 49ers, they are in as a wild card if they beat the Rams but could also 'sneak' into the playoffs if the Saints lose on Sunday in Atlanta. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan, citing current key injuries, the COVID unknown and the general parity among the NFL's top teams, said this week the door is wide open this season for any playoff team to walk away with the hardware. "The goal to me is always: Just to get in," he professed. "Because if you get in, you got the shot. I've always felt like that, and it seems pretty strong this year, too." It's HARD to argue with him on this. The 49ers have won FIVE in a row against their longtime California rival and a SIXTH straight win could give them a psychological edge. A "W' would give the 49ers a third consecutive season-series sweep and a third straight win in LA. Jimmy Garoppolo went 15-for-19 for 182 yards and two TDs in a 31-10 home win over the Rams in Week 10 but suffered a partially torn ligament in his right thumb in the Week 16 loss at Tennessee. He sat out last week's 23-7 home win over the Houston Texans, a game in which prized rookie Trey Lance threw for 249 yards and two TDs. Shanahan has indicated that Garoppolo (68.0% for 3,494 yards with 19 TDs and 10 INTs), if deemed healthy, would get the start against the Rams. It figures to be a game-day decision. Mitchell has 'saved' the 49ers' running game this season, gaining 878 yards on 4.7 YPC with 6 TDs. He's topped 100 yards rushing in TWO of the last three games (133 in Week 15 at Minnesota and 119 at home vs Houston in Week 17). Then there is WR Samuel, who has 51 rushing attempts for 320 yards (6.3 YPC) and 7 TDs, while snaring a team-best 73 receptions (17.9 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Kittle (66 / 6 TDs) is active and WR Aiyuk has 50 catches (14.4 YPC) with 5 TDs. Matthew Stafford is sure happy to be out of Detroit, Stafford has completed 67.3% for 4,648 yards with 38 TDs and 15 INTs (QB rating of 103.5). The running game has been better behind Sony Michel (802 yards on the season), who has averaged 99.4 yards per game during the five straight wins. RB Darrell Henderson (688 yards on 4.6 YPC and 5 TDs) is on IR but Cam Akers could finally play after an offseason Achilles injury that was originally expected to cost him his season. WR Kupp leads the NFL in receptions (138), yards (1,829) and receiving TDs (15). Fellow WR Woods (45 catches / 6 TDs) remains on IR but second-year WR Jefferson has 48 catches on 16.1 YPC with 6 TDs (he caught just 19 passes as a rookie, playing in all 16 games!). TE Higbee adds 55 catches and 3 TDs. Cooper Kupp is in position to become the fourth player in NFL history to lead the league in receptions, yards receiving and touchdown catches. Only Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe and Steve Smith have won the triple crown. Kupp is also 12 receptions and 136 yards away from setting the single-season NFL records in both categories, although Kupp believes those potential achievements would deserve a big asterisk in a 17-game season. In the end, that's just a 'side story.' Neither team's defense has played up to snuff this season, as both find themselves in the middle-of-the-pack. The 49ers will know by kick-off if the Saints have won or lost in Atlanta. If New Orleans lost, the 49ers are in the postseason, win or lose but if the Saints were to win, the 49ers would need to beat the Rams to play next weekend. The Rams could be scoreboard watching as well, as the Cards are hosting the Seahawks at the same time. An Arizona loss clinches the division for the Rams win or lose. In the end, maybe all these "what ifs" are NOT worth worrying about. I expect the Rams to want to win this game pretty badly and end that five-game losing streak. I also expect LA to score here and for the 49ers, whether they need to win or not, to score enough for this game to 'fly' over the number. Good luck...Larry |
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01-07-22 | Kings v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* West Conf O/U Game of the Month is on Sac/Den Over at 9:10 ET. The Kings and Nuggets meet tonight in Denver. The Kings are just 16-24, leaving them 11th in the West, a half-game out of sneaking into the NBA's "Play-In" round, which features the 7-10 seeds playing for the last two playoff spots. Injuries and COVID-19 absences have piled up for the Nuggets but Denver checks in at 18-18. That gives them the No. 7 seed but the team is just ONE game back of the West's No. 5 seed. The Kings won't have center Richaun Holmes (12.6 & 8.7) against Denver after he went into COVID-19 protocol on Saturday. Terence Davis (9.5) sat out Wednesday's game with an ankle injury, and Chimezie Metu (9.1 & 6.5) is also in the protocol and will be out for Friday's game. PG Fox (20.9 & 5.2 APG) has scored 30 points in each of the Kings' last two games and is joined by guards Hield (15.7) and Haliburton (13.6-4.0-6.8) to form a terrific perimeter trio. SF Barnes (16.5 & 6.1) continues his solid play plus Baylor rookie Mitchell (9.4) has become a regular contributor. PF/C Bagley (8.0 & 7.1) is back healthy and has pulled down 12 rebounds in each of the team's last two games. With Denver suffering injuries and COVID absences last year's MVP has taken on more and more responsibility. It would be hard for Nikola Jokic (25.7-14.2-7.0) to do more than he did Wednesday night, when he scored 26 points with 21 rebounds and 11 assists in a 115-109 loss to the Utah Jazz. "26, 21 and 11, and you lose," acting Nuggets coach Popeye Jones said after Wednesday's game. "You feel it for him. I think I've said it numerous times since I've been sitting here. Most superstars wouldn't take it. ... He's a special guy." Jokic has had to carry a bigger load with long-term injuries to Jamal Murray (knee) and Michael Porter Jr. (back). Neither is coming back soon, and things became tougher with Aaron Gordon (14.2 & 5.5 playing with a hamstring injury, while Jeff Green and Zeke Nnaji were placed on the health and safety protocol list. The Kings lost at home to Atlanta on Wednesday night despite Trae Young, John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic sitting out. Unfortunately, for those hoping the Kings will finally break their 15-year playoff drought, it's not the only time Sacramento has lost to a team that is missing stars. The Kings have dropped games against the Los Angeles Lakers without LeBron James and Anthony Davis and to Dallas when Luka Doncic was sidelined. Sacramento is the worst defensive team in the league but will also be able score here in Denver, so I see this game 'soaring' over the total. Good luck...Larry |
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01-05-22 | Hawks v. Kings UNDER 231 | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Atl/Sac Under at 10:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis Wednesday by 12 noon ET. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans OVER 39.5 | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Featured Sunday O/U is on Mia/Ten Over at 1:00 ET. Miami opened last season 1-3 but won NINE of its final 12 games (5-1 at home, losing only to KC), to just miss the playoffs at 10-6. Optimism was high entering 2021 but after a 17-16 win at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins lost SEVEN straight games. However, Miami has rebounded with a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run to become the first team in NFL history to win seven straight games and also lose seven consecutive games in the same season. The now 8-7 Dolphins can make the playoffs but they'll have to beat both the 10-4 Titans and 9-6 Patriots to close out the regular season. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl O/U of the Year is on ASU/Wisconsin Over at 10:30 ET. The Wisconsin Badgers began the season ranked No. 12 in the AP preseason poll but opened 1-3. All looked lost but the Badgers put together a seven-game winning streak and all they needed to do was win at Minnesota in their regular season finale to clinch a berth in the Big Ten championship game. However, Wisconsin lost 23-13. The mood was bleak. Yes, 8-4 Wisconsin is making its 20th consecutive bowl appearance, but that seven-game winning streak had the Badgers craving a loftier bowl destination. However, the Badgers are now saying they are motivated to make amends as they enter the Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona State on Thursday. In contrast to Wisconsin's slow start, ASU opened 5-1 (lone loss was 27-17 at BYU) and was ranked 18th when it visited Salt Lake City to take on Utah. The Utes dominated the Sun Devils, winning 35-21 and the defeat was the beginning of a 3-3 finish that leaves the Sun Devils with the same record as the Badgers at 8-4. QB Jayden Daniels accounted for 16 touchdowns (10 passing, six rushing) but didn't make the big impact he needed to declare for the NFL draft. He recently announced he will be back in 2022 after passing for 2,222 yards (with nine interceptions) and rushing for 670 yards. That's the good news for ASU. The bad news is that RB Rachaad White (1,006 rushing yards / 5.5 YPC / 15 TDs) is skipping the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft and fellow RB DeaMonte Trayanum (402 rushing yards with six TDs) entered the transfer portal. That leaves Daniyel Ngata, who averaged 6.4 yards a carry while producing 286 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, as the lead back against Wisconsin. Wisconsin dominated opponents defensively during the first six games of its seven-game winning streak, allowing a miniscule 44 points (7.3 PPG). However, in its final two games, the defense allowed 51 points. That said, the Wisconsin defense enters this game allowing just 16.4 PPG on 241.4 YPG (1st in the nation). You may remember Wisconsin QB Mertz making a spectacular debut back on Oct 23rd of 2020, completing 20 of 21 for 248 yards with five TD passes in the Big Ten's 1st game back after it initially had canceled the season. Well, that QB hasn't been seen since. In his last 18 games, he has just 13 TD passes and 15 INTs. RBs Allen (1,109 yards / 7.1 YPC / 12 TDs) and Mellusi (815 / 4.7 YPC / 5 TDs) headline a running game that averages 215.3 YPG (16th), The Wisconsin offense isn't pretty but it averaged 31.9 PPG in its seven-game winning steak and 25.8 PPG on the season. I won't be even a little surprised if the Wisconsin offense bludgeons the ASU defense, which also saw CBs Chase Lucas and Jack Jones opt out of the contest to prepare for the draft. "Obviously, the regular season didn't end the way we would've liked it," Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst said. "But I go back to (the fact that) this group truly does enjoy each other. They care about each other, and we've got one game that we can play and one more opportunity. I think for all those reasons, it means a lot to them." I'm with Paul and while ASU will definitely be short-handed with its running game, I expect QB Daniels to play with a 'chip on his shoulder' with something to prove against the Wisconsin defense. ASU avenged 29.7 PPG on the season and if the Sun Devils can get between 14 and 21 points, I expect this game to 'fly' over the total. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Featured Sunday O/U (NFC East O/U Game of the Year) is on Was/Dal Over at 8:20 ET. The Dallas Cowboys were not on the field Thursday night but when the Titans edged the 49ers 20-17 on a FG with four seconds left in the game, Dallas became the second NFL team to clinch a 2021 playoff berth, joining the Green Bay Packers. The 10-4 Cowboys have a three-game lead over the 7-7 Philadelphia Eagles in the division race and can clinch the NFC East with a victory over the visiting 7-7 Washington Football Team on Sunday Night Football. The Dallas/Washington rivalry is among the most intense in the NFL and the two teams meet for the SECOND time in a three-week span. Dallas led that Week 14 game in Washington 24-0 at the half but despite forcing FOUR turnovers and Washington losing starting QB Taylor Heinicke to an injured knee (left and didn't return), the Cowboys needed to hang on for a 27-20 win.
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12-26-21 | Pacers v. Bulls UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Ind/Chi Under at 8:10 ET. The Indiana Pacers missed the postseason with a 34-38 record last year, after playing in NINE of the previous 10. The Pacers opened 1-6 and will enter this Christmas Day game in Chicago at 14-19, two games out of the "Play In" cut line. The Bulls were 31-41 last season, missing the postseason for the FOURTH consecutive year. However, the Bulls have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free-agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. Like many other teams in recent weeks, the Bulls have had severe COVID issues but still enter this contest 19-10, battling 22-13 Milwaukee for the Central Division lead. The Bulls currently hold down the No. 2 seed in the East. When healthy, the Pacers have a strong five-man rotation, as all players average in double digits. PG Brogdon (19.0-5.3-6.1) leads the way, followed by PF Sabonis (18.1-11.6-4.2). SG LeVert (16.7), center Turner (13.4 & 7.5) and 6-5 rookie Duarte (13.2 & 4.1) comprise that group. The issue for Indiana for tonight's game is the Pacers are hoping that PG Malcolm Brogdon (right achilles) and forward Domantas Sabonis (right calf) will be back in the lineup. Both are listed as day-to-day after missing Thursday's 118-106 win over the Houston Rockets. Center Myles Turner, who has 17 blocks over his past five games, contributed 32 points and 10 rebounds in 37 minutes against the Rockets. The Pacers also received a boost from Caris LeVert, who filled in for Brogdon at point guard and tallied 24 points and 11 assists. There were 'whispers' that the 32-year-old DeMar DeRozan was on the downside of his career but he's been one of the best players in the NBA so far this season, averaging 26.8-5.2-4.2. He has energized the Chicago Bulls, along with LaVine (26.0-5.3-4.2), Vucevic (15.5 & 10.4) and Ball (13.2-5.4-5.0). DeRozan missed three games due to the NBA's COVID protocols before scoring 38 points in last Sunday's 115-110 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. He then scored 26 in a 133-118 victory over the Houston Rockets on Monday. Cautious optimism has the Bulls hoping the worst of the team's COVID outbreak is behind them. In fact, Sunday's game will mark the first time Chicago has had center Nikola Vucevic, forward DeMar DeRozan and guard Zach LaVine available at the same time in more than THREE weeks. The Bulls will surely remember the Pacers beating them 109-77 in Chicago back on Nov 22, meaning Chicago has lost its last SIX home games against Indiana It's time for the Bulls to say Enough is ENOUGH! We won't know until tip-off just who will or won't play for the Pacers but it's my opinion that this O/U number seems to reflect an "all hands on deck" scenario, which by no means is a guarantee. I'm going U-N-D-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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12-19-21 | Jets v. Dolphins OVER 41 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Featured O/U is on the NJY/Mia Over at 1:00 ET. The Jets drafted BYU's Zach Wilson No. 2 in the 2021 Draft, right after the Jags took Trevor Lawrence, hoping that he would develop into the franchise QB the team has been searching for the last few decades. The early returns? Not so good! The Dolphins are led by QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was the 5th overall pick in the 2020 Draft. Things are going MUCH better for Tua, as he and the Dolphins welcome the Jets to Hard Rock Stadium for this Week 15 contest. The 3-10 Jets have already been eliminated from playoff contention for a franchise-record 11th consecutive year, which is also the longest active drought in the NFL Meanwhile, the Dolphins are looking to extend their 5-0 SU & ATS winning streak to six games on Sunday. Miami opened last season 1-3 but won NINE of its final 12 games (5-1 at home, losing only to KC), to just miss the playoffs at 10-6. Optimism was high entering 2021 but after a 17-16 win at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins lost SEVEN straight games. However, Miami has rebounded with a 5-0 SU & ATS run. Tua regained the starting QB job (injury/poor play) and has led the team in the last four wins. In his team's last three games, Tua has focused on staying in the pocket (just nine rush attempts), completing 80% of his 105 pass attempts with five TD passes and just one INT. Miami's running game is actually worse than New York's, averaging 79.2 YPG (31st)but Tua does have two impressive 'targets' in rookie WR Waddle (86 catches) and TE Gesicki (59 catches). |
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12-15-21 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 219 | Top | 124-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Min/Den Under at 9:10 ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves made Karl-Anthony Towns the No. 1 overall pick in 2015 and the LA Lakers made D'Angelo Russell the No. 2 pick of that same draft. Towns has been the 'centerpiece' (pardon the pun) of the T-wolves since joining the team but now Russell, who has had a nomadic career, is making a big impact with the T-wolves as Towns' teammate. Throw in swingman Anthony Edwards, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2020 Draft and the T-wolves own quite a trio. That said, Minnesota visits Pepsi Center to take on the Nuggets, with just a 12-15 record.
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12-13-21 | Kings v. Raptors OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Sac/Tor Over at 7:10 ET. The Sacramento Kings are trying to salvage one win from a three-game road trip. They lost 124-123 to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, ending a three-game winning streak, and then lost 117-103 at Cleveland on Saturday. The Kings are in Toronto tonight to face the Raptors, who are hoping to complete their seven-game homestand with a winning record. The Raptors evened their record on the homestand to 3-3 with a 90-87 victory over the New York Knicks on Friday.
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 41.5 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 104 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Bal/Cle Over at 1:00 ET. The Steelers survived a game-winning two-point conversion for the Ravens o in Week 12, holding on for a 20-19 win. Heading into Week 14, the AFC North looked like this, Baltimore was 8-4, Cincinnati 7-5 (off a humbling home loss to the Chargers), Pittsburgh 6-5-1 and the Browns 6-6 (Week 13 bye). The Steelers were the first AFC North team to play in Week 14, losing 36-28 Thursday night in Minnesota to fall to 6-6-1. The Bengals are set to host the 6-6 49ers in a 4:25 start and at 1:00 ET, the Ravens and Browns will meet in Cleveland. Baltimore just won 16-10 over visiting Cleveland in Week 12, a mere two weeks ago. Since the Browns had a bye last week, they now become the first NFL team in 30 years to play consecutive regular-season games against the same opponent. Seattle did it last in 1991.
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12-06-21 | 76ers v. Hornets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Phi/Cha Under at 7:10 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are in Charlotte tonight to take on the Hornets. Philly (49-23) was the East's No. 1 seed last season but lost in the second round to the Hawks, As for the Hornets, they were 33-39 last year and were part of the NBA's "Play-In" round, but got crushed 144-117 at Indiana. However, as the teams meet Monday night, the Hornets are 14-11 and the 76ers 12-11, The 76ers should be well-rested, as while Philadelphia played three games in an eight-day period (2-1), the most recent-game for the 76ers was Friday night's 98-96 win in Atlanta. The best news for Philly fans is that the team is back healthy. Center Embiid (22.5 & 11.0) and PF Harris (19.2 & 8.2) have missed time becai-use of COVID protocols but that's behind them. Simmons has NOT been missed, as PG Maxey (17.2 & 4.9 APG) has played all 23 games plus Curry adds 16.3 PPG in the backcourt. Guards Milton (11.5) and Korkmaz (9.2) add depth on the perimeter, while the 6-7 Niang (11.3) and the 6-10 Drummond add 6.5 & 10.5 in about 21 minutes per game. Charlotte is led by the outstanding trio of Bridges (20.4 & 7.3), Ball (20.0-7.7-8.3) and Hayward (17.2-4.9-3.4). Plumlee (6.8 & 7.3) started the first 20 games but is currently sidelined (right calf strain), with PJ Washintgton (10.5 & 5.2) filling in the last two. Perimeter players Rozier (17.7) and Oubre (15.8) have also been regular and effective contributors. The Hornets go into Monday night's home game against the Philadelphia 76ers coming off an unlikely result. Down four players because of COVID protocols, the Hornets pulled out Sunday night's 130-127 road victory against the Atlanta Hawks. Charlotte won despite the absences of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels. All except McDaniels are considered starters. These teams meet again Wednesday night (also in Charlotte)but let; stay "in the moment." Charlotte is the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 115.5 PPG but with the 76ers running the majority of their offense through their big man, I expect a much more methodically-paced affair than what this Over/Under line is suggesting. Play the U-N-D-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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12-05-21 | Giants v. Dolphins OVER 40.5 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -113 | 55 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Sunday Featured O/U is on NYG/Mia Over at 1:00 ET. The Miami Dolphins will host the New York Giants on Sunday and welcome the Giants to Hard Rock Stadium on a FOUR-game winning streak that has followed a SEVEN-game losing streak. The Giants 'limp' into Miami 4-7, after a 13-7 home win over the Eagles last Sunday but are just 1-4 on the road.
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12-02-21 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 209 | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Det/Pho Over at 9:10 ET. |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* featured Sunday O/U is on LAC/Dev Over at 4:05 ET. The 6-4 LA Chargers are a half-game back of the 7-4 KC Chiefs in the AFC West. They are in Denver this Sunday to face the 5-5 Denver Broncos who are in last-place, a half-game back of the 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders, who won Thanksgiving Day at Dallas. Sunday's game will be the first time Denver head coach Vic Fangio will coach against his former assistant Brandon Staley. Fangio was the defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears when he hired Staley to be his outside linebackers coach in 2017. They were together for three seasons, the last with Denver in 2019. Staley has led Los Angeles into playoff contention in his first year. Justin Herbert threw for a season-high 382 yards with three TDs and one INT in last Sunday night's 41-37 win over Pittsburgh. The Chargers led 27-10 into the 4th quarter but actually fell behind, before Herbert connected on a 53-yard TD pass with just over two minutes to go. RB Austin Ekeler ran for 50 yards (2 TDs) and caught six passes for 65 yards (2 TDs). He is the ONLY player in the AFC with 500 or more rushing yards (573) and 400-plus receiving yards (405). He has run for 7 TDs and caught 6 TD passes. Herbert has veteran WR Allen as a possession receiver (74 catches / 10.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (46 / 15.3 YPC / 7 TDs) as more of a big-play threat. Denver opened the season 3-0, then lost FOUR straight, only to win back-to-back games before losing at home to the Eagles 30-13 last Sunday. I'm not sure Denver has finally found its next QB but Bridgewater is completing 69.2% for 2,389 yards with 14 TDs and just 5 INTs. The 14 TD passes is one shy of his career-high and he's thrown just one INT in his last four games (123 attempts). The RB duo of Gordon (522 yards / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and rookie Williams (514 yards / 5.0 YPC / 1 TD) gives the offense some balance, while WRs Sutton (43 / 14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) and Patrick (37 / 14.1 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Fant (42 / 3 TDs) make up a decent receiving corp. Here's the contrast in this game. The Chargers average 26.0 PPG but allow 26.5, while the Broncos average 20.0 PPG and allow just 18.3. Which team controls the flow and pace of this game? I say the Chargers, who have won FIVE consecutive AFC West games after dropping nine straight. Four of Herbert's 13, 300-yard passing games have come against AFC West teams and he has thrown for 17 TDs and without a SINGLE interception in his last six starts against a division opponent. A big note of concern is obviously on the defensive side of the ball for LA, as the 37 points the Chargers conceded last weekend was the third time this season the team has allowed more than 30 points (perhaps more surprisingly, the team has won two of those three games. The Broncos' offense had the week off because of their bye and with the extra time to prepare, I expect a strong performance here from the offense against a vulnerable LA defense. Look for this total to 'fly' over the number well before the final whistle sounds. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout O/U is on Pho/Brk Under at 7:40 ET. When the Phoenix Suns ended a 10-year postseason drought last year, finishing just ONE game behind the Utah Jazz for the NBA's best regular season record. The Suns made it all the way to The Finals but after taking a 2-0 lead over the Bucks, lost FOUR in a row. Based on 'early returns,' the Suns REALLY mean business this season. 16-3 Phoenix takes the court tonight at Barclay Center and will put its 15-game winning streak on the line (the longest since a team-record 17-game run in 2006-07) to take on the 14-5 Brooklyn Nets. The Nets opened 2-3 but have won 12 of 14 since. Brooklyn suffered an 18-point loss to Golden State on Nov 16 but enters this contest on a four-game winning streak. |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Cha/Was Over at 7:10 ET. The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards have each produced a five-game winning streak this month as the 10-8 Hornets travel to D.C. to take on the 11-5 Wizards. Charlotte lost five straight from Nov 1-8 but then won FIVE in row, before seeing its streak end with a 115-105 loss Saturday night in Atlanta. Washington won FIVE in a row from Nov 5-15 and welcomes the Hornets to the Verizon Center where the Wizards own a 7-1 record, including the last four. Charlotte is led by the outstanding trio of Bridges (21.6-7.6-3.4), Ball (19.3-7.8-7.7) and Hayward (17.7-5.1-3.5). Plumlee (6.7 & 7.4) has started all 16 games at center plus perimeter players Rozier (14.7) and Oubre (13.7 & 4.2) have been regular contributors. Beal (23.7-5.2-5.9) and Dinwiddie (15.7-5.0-5.6) make for an excellent backcourt duo, joined by a trio of players I've dubbed, "Lakers East!" PF Harrell (17.1 & 8.4), SF Kuzma (13.6 & 9.6) and guard Caldwell-Pope (9.6) are very happy on the East Coast. Charlotte has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six, but I think that the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned here for the Hornets. One of those "unders" included a low-scoring 97-87 win at home over these very Wizards on November 17th. The Hornets have struggled defensively, conceding 118 PPG over the last two weeks plus Charlotte ranks second in the NBA in scoring (112.3 PPG). This is a difficult stretch for the Hornets, who began a road stretch Saturday and will be playing their THIRD game in four nights. I think that will make them even more vulnerable defensively and therefore I'm Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-13 | Win | 100 | 97 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* featured Sunday O/U play is on Cin/LV Under at 4:05 ET. The Bengals (5-4) and Raiders (5-4) were each atop their respective divisions a few weeks ago but both enter this contest in Las Vegas on two-game losing streaks. The Bengals took over first place in the AFC North with a dominating 41-17 win at Baltimore on Oct 24 but they followed their best performance of the season (520 total yards) with two of their two worst outings, falling 34-31 to the last-place Jets before getting blown out at home 41-16 by the last-place Browns on Nov 7. The Raiders also opened up 5-2 and appeared to be a threat to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West. However, a 23-16 loss to the Giants followed by a 41-14 setback to the visiting Chiefs on Sunday have dropped the Raiders to third place in the division. |
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11-19-21 | Lakers v. Celtics OVER 213.5 | Top | 108-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* O/U of the Week is on LA/Bos Over at 7:40 ET.
There is talk that the Lakers are about to get their 'King' back, as LBJ (24.8-5.5-7.0) could be set to return from an abdominal injury when the Lakers visit the Celtics on Friday night. The NBA's two most successful franchises renew their storied rivalry on the parquet tonight in Boston with the Lakers coming 8-8 and the Celtics at 7-8. LBJ has missed his team's last eight games (3-5), including a 109-102 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday, but was listed as questionable for Friday's contest. "I hope, I hope," James told ESPN after Wednesday's game when asked if he would play Boston. The Lakers were not able to stop Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored a season-high 47 points for the Bucks. LA's Anthony Davis (23.8 & 10.8), Russell Westbrook (19.4-8.4-8.8) and Carmelo Anthony (15.2 & 4.1) combined to only equal Antetokounmpo's point total. Some VERY good news for LA has been that Talen Horton-Tucker led the Lakers in scoring for a second straight game with 25 points. The 6-4 shooting guard played for the first time this season on Nov 14 and has averaged 23.3 PPG in his three games. The Celtics remain without Brown (hamstring), who has averaged 25.6 & 6.1). Big man Robeet Willimas (10.0 & 9.2) is listed as questionable with a knee issue. Tatum (24.2 & 8.5) needs to pick up the slack with Brown out and has gotten some excellent support from PG Schroder (17.0-3.8-5.1). The return of Horford (13.1 & 8.7) has been a blessing but the Celtcs are still one game under .500 for the season, including 2-3 at home. That said, a game with the hated-Lakers should (will) bring out the best in Boston. "That game is special," Tatum said of Friday's game against Los Angeles. "Everyone knows the history between the two franchises, and I've been fortunate enough to be a part of that going on five years now." Chemistry is the main issue with LA right now, especially with LeBron James having been sidelined for nearly a month now with injury. The Lakers have struggled defensively all season, allowing 112.3 PPG. However, LA has averaged 109.3 points per game, which ranks ninth overall. The Celtics' defense has struggled this season, as they're allowing opposing teams to shoot a whopping 48 percent from the floor in their own building (that's dead last in the league!). I am expecting a faster-paced game tonight and for the total to go over. Good luck...Larry. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings v. Chargers UNDER 53.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Featured Sunday NFL O/U is on Min/LAC Under at 4:05 ET. The 3-5 Minnesota Vikings come into Sunday's game with the 5-3 LA Chargers, enduring a season's worth of frustarting losses. Their five losses have been by a total of just 18 points, including two OT losses. The Chargers know the feeling, as they had a similar start last season. Their first five losses were by a combined 19 points and also had two ending in overtime. The bottom line is, as the teams take the field Sunday at So-Fi Stadium, Minnesota's season is 'on the brink,' while the Chargers are tied with the Raiders atop the AFC West, with KC and Denver lurking just one game back at 5-4. |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner (O/U) is on Mia/LAC under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers began the season knowing Kawhi would miss most if not all of it. The Clipps started slowly but will take a five-game winning streak into a home contest against the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat will enter off a 120-117 overtime defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, which followed a 113-96 loss in Denver on Monday. Wednesday's loss was the THIRD in four games for the Heat but more notably, they lost star Jimmy Butler (23.6-5.5-5.1) after 12 minutes because of a sprained right ankle. His status for Thursday's game remains in the air. Bam Adebayo (19.3 & 11.6) scored 28 points and Tyler Herro (20.9-5.3-3.9) had 27, but the Heat missed five free throws and two 3-point attempts by Herro in the final 50.9 seconds of overtime. Miami led 106-97 with 4:45 remaining in regulation before the Lakers rallied to tie it. The Clippers made it FIVE straight wins with a 117-109 victory at home over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Paul George (26.7-8.3-5.4) had 24 points and got 23 from Reggie Jackson (17.6-3.5-4.5), while Nicolas Batum (12.1 & 6.3) was right behind the leading scorers, hitting six 3-pointers while scoring 22 points. The Clippers seem to have found their 'mojo.' The team-wide approach has shown on both offense (balanced scoring) and also on defense, leading to four consecutive victories by at least an eight-point margin. Both teams have been known as strong defensive ones. Miami enters allowing 103.2 PPG (6th) and Los Angeles 103.2 PPG (7th). This is a great situational play. Not only is Miami dealing with some off-court issues (COVID related), but it's also off an exhausting (and disappointing) 120-117 overtime loss at the Lakers just last night.The last thing that LA will want to do here is to play at a fast pace, as that plays right into the Heat's strength on the offensive end. The Heat will almost assuredly double-down on the defensive end as well. This one sets up as well from a number of different ways to be much more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-21 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 210 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SA/OKC Over at 7:10 ET. The San Antonio Spurs visit OKC off a 102-89 win Friday in Orlando, marking the second time this season the Spurs have defeated the Magic. San Antonio is 3-6 on the season and the Thunder check in at 2-6. OKC is also coming off a win, 107-104 over the Lakers in Los Angeles on Thursday. Oklahoma City wrapped up a three-game California road trip 1-2 after a blowout loss in San Francisco to the Warriors and a close loss in L.A. to the Clippers. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (9.7) missed all three games of a road trip with a balky right knee, before returning in the last two. Walker (11.2) started in his place, joining Murray (18.4-8.1-8.5), Johnson (15.6 & 5.8), Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7) and White (13.7 & 5.7 APG). However, Poeltl will miss here, as he has entered the NBA's health and safety protocols and is expected to miss several games, PG Gilgeous-Alexander (23.5-4.9-3.9) leads OKC, joined by three others who have started all eight games. However, none are household names in SF Dort (12.4 & 3.6), PF Bazley (11.1 & 6.3) and SG Gidley (10.5-6.0-6.1). The Thunder are rebuilding after losing the entire core of players that led them into the NBA Finals Against the Cavaliers back in 2012. The Thunder are off a big 107-104 road win at the Lakers and they'll be eager to make it two in a row here. That game was played Thursday, so OKC has had time to 'come down from that high' and is well rested. This year's version of the Spurs is running a free-flowing offense (108.9 PPG ranks 13th) and defense is no longer a priority (107.9 PPG ranks 16th). Yes, the Spurs clamped down on Orlando but I expect both of these teams to be in the 110s in this one. Go Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -106 | 123 h 28 m | Show |
I was going to use this game as my 10* O/U Game of the Year but then Rodgers was ruled out. I would reccomend a "no play." I am not offering this play for sale. Larry |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference O/U Game of the Month is on Phi/Det Over at 7:10 ET. The Detroit Pistons have opened 1-6 and it's not difficult to figure out why. Detroit ranks dead-last in scoring (95.1 PPG), FG percentage (39.4%) and three-point percentage (26.7%). A difficult early schedule hasn't helped the cause and it won't get any easier in the short run, as the Pistons host Philadelphia on Thursday and Brooklyn on Friday. The Sixers have a different set of issues as they visit Detrouit but come to Motown 6-2, which includes a 110-102 victory over Detroit in Philadelphia last Thursday. Joel Embiid (20.6-8.7-4.3) had 18 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in his return to the lineup on Wednesday plus Seth Curry (17.1) scored 22 points and hit a crucial jumper late to lead the Philadelphia 76ers over the Chicago Bulls 103-98. Georges Niang (11.6 PPG coming off the bench in all eight games) added 18 points for the short-handed 76ers. All are aware of the Ben Simmons situation (personal reasons), who has missed all eight games, but Philadelphia was without starters Tobias Harris (health and safety protocols) and Danny Green (hamstring). The loss of Green is not a big deal but Harris was averaging 19.8-9.0-4.2. Maxey has started all eight games (alongside Curry) and is averaging 14.0 & 4.3 APG. Milton, who missed the first four games (averaged 13.0 PPG last season), has played the last four, averaging 10.3 PPG. Detroit has just three players scoring in double digits. That trio is comprised of frontcourt players Grant (16.8 & 5.0), Bey (14.1 & 7.9) and Olynyk (12.4 7 4.6), Seven more players have participated in all seven games, avergaing betwee 5.7 and 9.4 PPG. All eyes are on the top pick in the 2021 Draft, Cade Cunningham. He went 2-for-14 from the floor in his second appearance of the season against the Bucks. He's taken 14 three-point shots in his two games and missed EVERY one of them."That's part of his rust," head coach Casey said of the rookie, who sprained his ankle during training camp. "That's why we tried to get him some minutes toward the end, just to get some rust off the pipes." Here's the rub. Philadelphia has seemed adjust to playing without Ben Simmons in the lineup and is gunning for its fifth straight victory tonight. No reason to think that Philly can't match or excede the 112.0 PPG that the team has averaged in its four-game winning. After all, the Pistons have allowed 117 points in each of their last two games, including to a Milwaukee team that was missing regular starers Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and DiVincenzo. I expect Phily to score 155 points or more, meaning this game can go OVER even in the Pistons do no better than match their 95.0 PPG average. Note: The Pistons scored 102 opoints at Philadelphia on Oct 28. Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-21 | Spurs v. Pacers OVER 219 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on SA/Ind Over at 7:10 ET The Spurs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 102-93 win in Milwaukee on Saturday. San Antonio's defense carried it to the victory, which was also its first on the road this season. The Spurs limited Milwaukee's attack to 21 points below its per-game scoring average coming in and avenged a 10-point loss at home to the Bucks on Oct 23. 2-4 San Antonio will visit Indiana on Monday to take on the struggling Indiana Pacers. Indiana had made NINE postseasons in its previous 10 years before missing out last season with a 34-38 record. Now, the Pacers have opened 1-6 and carry a four-game losing streak into Monday's game after a 97-94 loss at home to Toronto on Saturday. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (11.5) missed his second straight game with right knee soreness in Saturday's win and will not play on Monday. Walker (13.2) will take his place, joining Murray (17.7-8.5-8.8), Johnson (15.8 & 5.3), Poetle (14.3 & 10.3) and White (13.2 & 6.2 APG). Indiana PG Brogdon (23.4-7.0-7.5) did not play for Indiana in Saturday's loss (hamstring strain), which was the second game of a road-home back-to-back.He is questionable for this one. Domantas Sabonis (20.9-11.1-4.1) led the Pacers with 22 points and 14 rebounds but missed a 3-pointer in the final seconds that would have tied the game against Toronto. Justin Holiday (8.6) added 16 points, rookie Chris Duarte (17.7 & 4.7) had 12, Jeremy Lamb (10.0) scored 11 points and center Myles Turner (12.4 & 7.4) had 10 points and 11 rebounds. Caris LeVert saw the court for the first time this season and scored 15 points in 16 minutes for Indiana, all in the first half. LeVert is on a minutes restriction because of a stress fracture in his back that forced him to miss the Pacers' first six games but should be able to give Indiana a good 20 minutes in this one. Non-conference matchups aren't always the most intense on the defensive side and I expect that to be the case here. Dating to last season though Indiana has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points. The Spurs had lost four in a row prior to their win over the defending champs and won't be taking anything for granted in this one, as they must feel this is a game that they can win outright as well. I expect both teams to push the pace from the opening tip, resulting in an O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 59 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U play is on TB/NO Over at 4:25 ET. Full, detailed analysis by Friday afternoon by 3:00 ET |
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Month is on Atl/NO Over at 7:40 ET. The Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for 10 straight years from the 2007-08 through the 2016-17 seasons. The Hawks then followed with THREE consecutive last-place finishes in the Southeast division with a combined 73-158 (.316) record. However, the Hawks had a breakout season last year, going 41-31 and reaching the Eastern Conference final before falling to the Bucks, who went on to win the NBA title. The Pelicans were 48-34 back in 2017-18 but have gone 33-49, 30-42 and 31-41 the last three seasons, the last two after selecting 'King' Zion as the first pick of the 2019 Draft. The 2-1 Hawks open a three-game road trip tonight in New Orleans against the 1-3 Pelicans. Atlanta crushed the Mavs 113-87 in its season-opener at home but its first road game didn't go well, losing 101-95 at Cleveland. The Hawks rebounded to beat visiting Detroit 122-104 on Monday night but now will be tested tonight at New Orleans, a contest that 'kicks off' a stretch in which EIGHT of the team's next 10 games will be played away from home. PG Young leads a deep roster averaging 25.0 & 10.0 APG. Four more players average in double digits, led by Reddish, who averages 18.7 PPG off the bench. Starting center Capela is averaging a modest 8.7 PPG but leads the team averaging 11.7 RPG. New Orleans' starting lineup is under flex, as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe, while bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (27.0-7.5-4.8-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Both Graham (17.8 & 5.0 APG) and Valanciunas (17.3 & 15.0) have made immediate contributions plus Alexander-Walker (17.3-5.5-7.8) has made great strides in his third season. The problem? No other Pelicans player is averaging as much as 6.0 PPG. The Pelicans finished a three-game road trip of their own with their first victory of the season, 107-98 at Minnesota on Monday. First-year head coach Willie Green called the win "refreshing" after starting the season with three consecutive losses. The Pels are not a strong defensive team and while Atlanta's defense has been great to this point (97.3 PPG ranks 2nd), I don't see that as being a sustainable number over the long-term, as the Hawks allowed 111.4 PPG last season. Regression in that department is going to happen sooner, rather than later. I'm expecting a very up-tempo game tonight so go O-V-E-R! |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Phi/NYK Under at 7:40 ET. The 76ers are at MSG tonight to take on the Knicks, as both teams enter with 2-1 records. The 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs. They are playing without Ben Simmons (14.7-5.6-7.2), who demanded a trade over the summer after struggling in a seven-game second-round loss to the Atlanta Hawks plus guard Shake Milton (13.0 PPG last season) has yet to play with an ankle injury. The Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31 but lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. However, after impressive wins over Boston at home (138 points in two OTs) and at Orlando (scored 121 points), the Knicks lost to Orlando in MSG in a quick turnaround, being held to 104 points. |
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10-25-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 234.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Port/LAC Under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers welcome Portland to Staples Center on Monday night, still searching for their first win of the season. The Clippers have had to dig themselves out of double-digit deficits in both losses, exerting a lot of energy to get back into the game, only to fall short in the fourth quarter. LA trailed by as many as 19 points in a season-opening, 115-113 setback on the road vs the Warriors and then fell behind by as many as 16 points in a 120-114 home loss to the Grizzlies. The Clippers need to figure out how to make up for the loss of superstar Kawhi Leonard, who remains out indefinitely as he rehabs from an ACL tear in his right knee suffered during the playoffs last June. Paul George has carried the scoring load for the Clippers offensively (35.0-10.5-5.0) but he needs some help from his teammates. The Blazers visit LA at 1-1. Portland was upset 124-121 at home by the Kings on Wednesday but then routed the Suns 134-105 on Saturday. CJ McCollum paced Portland with 28 points on 10-of-19 shooting from the floor, while Damian Lillard added 19 points and eight assists. Four Blazers are averaging in double digits, led by guards McCollum (31.0-4.5-3.0) and Lillard (19.5-3.5-9.0) plus center Nurkic (14.5 & 13.0). The Clippers have always prided themselves on playing tough D but enter having allowed 117.5 PPG over their first two. Expect LA to bounce back with a much better defensive effort in the third game of the season and remember, the Blazers brought in Chauncey Billups as their head coach to Improve Portland's defense. HUGE number here and I say go UNDER! Good luck...Larry
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10-24-21 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 215.5 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Orl/NYK Under at 7:10 ET. Orlando went 48-34 in the 2017-18 season (lost in conference semis) but the last three years, has played .416 basketball without even 'sniffing' a playoff berth. Orlando is in full rebuild mode this season and new head coach in Jamahl Mosley, who doesn't have a lot to work with. Meanwhile, the Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31. New York lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. Orlando opened its season by allowing 123 points at San Antonio and then 121 points at home to the Knicks, to open 0-2. It could (will be) a L-O-N-G first season for the Magic and Mosley. The Knicks preceded their win over the Magic by topping the Celtics 138-134 in two OTs in their season opener. The Two teams now play a quick turnaround game Sunday night at MSG. It's really hard to know what to make with Orlando. The Magic's inexperience has been exposed during an 0-2 start. In their season opener Wednesday at San Antonio, the Magic led for much of the first quarter and remained within a possession of the lead well into the second quarter but fell 123-.97 Against the Knicks on Friday at home, Orlando fell behind for good fewer than four minutes into the game. The Magic went 0-for-8 from the floor while being outscored 16-0 over the final 4:34 of the first quarter and trailed 36-16. Final score; 121-96. The Magic's starters in the first two games, Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, are all 23 years of age or younger. Plus all FIVE are first-round draft picks Randle (35-8-9) and Fournier (32 points) led the way in the 138-134 win over Boston, as New York shot 48.6% from the floor, including 17 of 45 on threes. Friday night in Atlanta, Randle had more modest totals of 21-10-7 and Fournier added "just" 18 points. However, the team shot 500.% overall, including 24 of 54 on threes. What's going on with ALL the threes, has the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau turned into Paul Westwood? The bottom line is, I can't see the Knicks pushing the pace in this one from the opening tip until the final horn, with Philadelphia coming to town next. New York has also seen the total go under the number in SEVEN of its last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which it scored 120 or more points in. Play under. Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams OVER 50 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -118 | 95 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* NFL "Featured" O/U is Det/LAR Over at 4:05 ET. The 0-6 Detroit Lions will be in Los Angeles on Sunday to take on the 5-1 LA Rams. QB Jared Goff, who the Rams made the overall No. 1 pick of the 206 Draft will be back in LA to face his former team for the first time since the Rams engineered a trade last offseason that brought QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams from the Lions. The move to secure Stafford has gone well, as the Rams sit at 5-1, just below the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. As for Goff's move to Detroit? Not so much! The same cannot be said for the Lions. Detroit is 0-6 and still looking for its first win under first-year head coach Dan Campbell. Speaking honestly (rare for any coach or manager these days), Rams head coach Sean McVay said the handling of Goff's departure wasn't exactly a smooth process. "I wish there was better, clearer communication," McVay said. "To say that it was perfectly handled on my end, I wouldn't be totally accurate in that. I'll never claim to be perfect, but I will try to learn from some things that I can do better, and I think that was one of them without a doubt." |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My ALCS 10* O/U Game of the Year is on Hou/Bos Under at 8:08 ET. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers became the first pair of teammates in postseason history to hit grand slams in the same game, doing so in the first and second innings respectively of Boston's decisive 9-5 win in Game 2 on Saturday at Houston that tied the ALCS at one-all. The Red Sox will return home to Fenway Park with momentum on their side as they host the Astros for a pivotal Game 3 in their best-of-seven showdown on Monday night. The Astros fought back out of a 9-0 hole on Saturday to make it a four-run game after scoring three in the fourth and two in the ninth. Houston also scored five runs in its series-opening 5-4 win over Boston in Game 1 Friday. "We've got to try to figure it out," Houston manager Dusty Baker said. "We won the seventh, eighth and ninth, but those two innings in the beginning -- that's a tremendous mountain to climb." Houston Game 3 starter is Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA over 20 regular starts / team was 14-6), who is set to make his postseason debut. Urquidy was in line to start Game 4 of the team's ALDS against the Chicago White Sox before it was rained out. He is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA in eight appearances (four starts) in his postseason career. Rodriguez went winless in two playoff starts against Tampa Bay in the ALDS and is 0-1 with a 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason games (three starts). However, after allowing two runs in the first inning of that Game 1 start at Tampa Bay (was removed after getting just two in the second inning), he gave a very solid effort in Boston's 6-5 series-clinching Game 4 win, pitching 5.1 innings at home, allowing only three hits and two ERs. Boston has seen the total go over the number in SIX of seven so far in the postseason, including in its first two games here against the Astros, losing 5-4 in Game 1 and then bouncing back with a 9-5 victory in Game 2. As for Houston, it has seen the total eclipse the posted number in FIVE of six in the playoffs, including in five straight. Each of these hard-hitting sides have played their fair share of "overs" to start the postseason but I think the value has now finally swung the other way. This is NOT a classic pitchers duel but I expect strong outings from each starter. Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos OVER 43 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 63 h 50 m | Show |
My NFL 9* Featured Sunday O/U is on LV/Den Over at 4:25 ET. Las Vegas opened the season with three straight victories, beating the Ravens 33-27 in overtime, the Steelers 26-17 and the Dolphins 31-28 in overtime as well. However, the Raiders then lost a Monday Nighter 28-14 at the LA Chargers, before last week's 20-9 home loss to the Bears. The Raiders travel to Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos, who have had a similar start to the season. The Broncos also won their first three games, beating the Giants 27-13, the Jaguars 23-13, and the Jets 26-0. However, Denver has struggled the last two weeks, falling 23-7 to the Ravens and 27-19 to the Steelers. Both teams are 3-2, ONE game behind the 4-1 Chargers and ONE game up on the Chiefs 9KC has won the AFC West FIVE straight years!). |
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10-16-21 | Toledo v. Central Michigan OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -112 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Featured Saturday O/U is on Toledo/Central Michigan Over at 3:30 ET Toledo and Central Michigan are both 3-3 (1-1 in the MAC), as both teams meet Saturday in Mount Pleasant hungry for a win. Toledo smashed Norfolk in its opener 49-10, but then it suffered back-to-back losses, falling 32-29 at Notre Dame (excellent effort) and then 22-6 to Colorado State. The Rockets then bounced-back with victories over Ball State and UMass, before last week's 22-20 loss to NIU (a 'killer,' as the Huskies kicked the game-winning FG with 26 seconds remaining). CMU lost 34-24 to Missouri in its opener, before hammering Robert Morris 45-0. The Chips then lost to LSU 49-21, beat FIU 31-27 and lost 28-7 to Miami Ohio. Last Saturday's 30-27 win over Ohio came with CMU scoring the game's final 10 points.
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10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* O/U of the Week is on Mil/Atl Over at 5:15 ET. Full, detailed analysis Tuesday by 12 noon ET. |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46 | Top | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* "Featured" Sunday O/U is on Cle/LAC Over at 4:05 ET. A pair of 3-1 teams meet Sunday in Los Angeles, as the Browns take on the Chargers. Kevin Stefanski took over as Cleveland's head coach last season and led them to an 11-5 record, the team's first winning record since 2007 (ending a 12-year drought of sub-.500 seasons). More importantly, the Browns made the postseason, ending a 17-year drought. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers in the wild card round, before falling to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Cleveland opened 2021 with a hard-luck 33-29 loss at KC but has won three in a row since to put them in a three-way tie atop the AFC North with Baltimore and Cincinnati (all 3-1). The Chargers dumped head coach Anthony Lynn after last season (12-20 in 2109 and 2020) and hired Brandon Staley. He's made a BIG difference already, as the Chargers are also off to a 3-1 (currently are in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Raiders). Los Angeles won 20-16 at Washington in Week 1, before falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!). However, the Chargers have been 'cooking' with an impressive 30-24 victory at KC in Week 3 and then a 28-14 Week 4 MNF win at home against the previously unbeaten Raiders! Both teams are 'hungry' for a win, playing in highly competitive divisions. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield really stepped up last season, completing 62.8% for 3,356 yards He's completing 65.5% this season for 935 yards, which is an average of 233.8 YPG (last year's average was 222.7 YPG). However, he had a 26-8 TD-to-INT ratio last season but it's just 2-2 after four games in 2021. The offense has relied more on the one-two RB duo of Chubb (362 yards on 5.2 YPC) and Hunt (234 yards on 5.4 YPC). Cleveland enters No. 1 in the NFL by averaging 177.0 YPG. 'Flying under the radar' is the Cleveland D, allowing 16.8 PPG (4th) on 250.3 YPG (2nd). Justin Herbert of LA outplayed Derek Carr Monday night, completing 25 of 38 for 222 yards with three TDs and no INTs. He's completing 68.9% on the season for 1,178 yards with nine TDs and three INTs. RB Ekeler ran for 117 yards (one TD) plus caught a TD pass. This all-purpose back has run for 283 yards on 5.7 YPC with four TDs plus has 18 receptions and one TD. WRs Allen (28) and Williams (23) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (12 catches) is solid. The LA defense is not quite in Cleveland's class but is allowing just 18.5 PPG (7th) on 332.0 YPG (9th). So why go over? The Browns are on the road for a second straight week and are coming off their worst offensive effort of the season, a 14-7 win at Minnesota. Cleveland gained a season-low 327 yards vs the Vikings, after averaging 410.0 YPG while scoring 28.7 PPG its first three games! Mayfield is way OVERDUE for a big game and up against Herbert (who is "the REAL deal"), should rise to the challenge. Could we see two "gun-slingers" go toe-to-toe in this one? My bet says, "Yes we can!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Total of the Year is on NYY/Bos Over at 8:08 ET. The wild card race in the AL came down to the 162nd game, as the Yankees, Red Sox, Glue Jays and Mariners could have all ended the regular season with a 91-71 record, IF New York and Boston had both lost, while Toronto and Seattle had both won. As it turned out, the Yankees scored in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Rays 1-0 and the Red Sox overcame a 5-0 deficit to the Nats (in DC) to win 7-5, on a two-run HR in the 9th. Toronto did win on Sunday but fell ONE game shy of New York and Boston at 91-71 (Seattle lost to come up two games short). Not for nothing but the AL East is the first division with four 90-win teams since MLB split each league into three divisions (1994).
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -108 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Car/Dal Under at 1:00 ET. This Week 4 matchup between the Panthers and Cowboys features a contest between two FIRST-PLACE teams. The 3-0 Panthers sit atop the NFC South (take that TB 12), while the 2-1 Cowboys lead the NFC 'Least,' as its only winning team. BOTH are a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Carolina Panthers are surely one of the NFL's biggest surprises, while the Cowboys lone loss came at Tampa Bay (on a FG in the closing second). Dallas followed that tough loss with back-to-back wins, receiving kudos after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 56 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Sea/Min Under at 4:25 ET. 1-1 Seattle pulled away for a 28-16 win at Indianapolis in Week 1 but then blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead at home last Sunday in a 33-30 OT loss to Tennessee. Minnesota is 0-2 but is just two plays away from being 2-0. The Vikings lost 27-24 in OT at Cincy in Week 1 and at Arizona last Sunday, missed a 37-yard FG on the game's final play. The Vikings are at home for the first time in 2021 this Sunday against Seattle. QBs Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are both off to great starts with Wilson completing 74.1% for 597 yards with six TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 146.9 is No. 1). Cousins is completing 71.6% for 595 yards with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 112.9. The duo has combined to attempt 135 passes through the season's first two weeks and neither has thrown a SINGLE interception. Considering Seattle's defense ranks 30th in allowing 434.0 YPG and Minnesota is allowing 420.0 YPG (28th), maybe this is a 'dead-nuts' Over! Then again, maybe the Over is not such an easy call. The Seahawks have won SIX straight regular-season games against the Vikings, including a 27-26 victory last year in Seattle on a 6-yard TD pass from Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf with six seconds remaining. In fact, I think we'll witness another tight battle here as well, but I also expect a lower final combined score. The Vikings have played two consecutive games decided by a FG attempt on the game's final play, with the Vikings coming out on the 'wrong' side of the make and miss. An 0-3 start all but ends any playoff hopes Minnesota brought into the season and Seattle sure wants/needs to move to 2-1, as the other three teams in the NFC West have all opened 2-0. Seattle is at the 49ers next week and the is home to the Rams the following week. Expect a competitive game and a final score that stays Under the total. Good luck...Larry |
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09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry O/U Game of the Year is on the NYY/Bos Under at 7:10 ET. MLB's greatest rivalry adds to its legacy this weekend as the NY Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Part for a three-game series starting tonight. Here's the set-up. Only two games separate these teams in the wildcard race, as Boston is 88-65 and New York 86-67. However, Toronto lurks just ONE game back and Seattle, which last made the postseason in 2001), sits only two games back. And the Yankees have won three straight (7 of 10) but Boston has won SEVEN in a row (8 of 10). The Yankees hand the ball to ace Gerrit Cole (15-8, 3.03), who is coming off one of the worst outings this season, allowing seven runs off 10 hits over six innings. Meanwhile, Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.58 ERA) who enters off an unfortunate no-decision to the Orioles on Sunday, striking out eight and allowing three runs off seven hits over five innings. Cole has worked 169.1 innings and comes down the stretch of the regular season with an elite 231/38 KW ratio and note that he's been at his best on the road this season, going 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA. Eovaldi was 9-5 at the All Star break but has earned just ONE win over his last 12 starts. However, he's posted a 2.27 ERA and 48/6 KW ratio over his last six starts plus owns a 2.99 ERA at Fenway, compared to a 4.62 ERA on the road. Tonight is a pivotal opener of this three-game series and it's my opinion that these two hurlers will garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. These teams have played under the total in SIX of their last seven meetings and everything points to that trend continuing here. This number is high and the play is on the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* O/U of the Week is on Min/Chi Under at 7:40 ET. Neither club will be in the postseason in 2021, after BOTH won their respective divisions in 2020. The Twins won the AL Central and the Cubs the NL Central. However, the Twins check in at 65-85 and the Cubs at 67-83. what a difference a year makes. Each team enters having lost SEVEN of its last 10. Neither starting pitcher instills a ton of confidence, but I still think this O/U line is high. The visitors hand the ball to Griffin Jax (3-4, 6.65 ERA), who gave up five runs (three earned) over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Wednesday. Chicago turns to Alec Mills (6-6, 4.50), who gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Phillies on Wednesday. Chicago has been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late, which makes it worth noting that the Cubs have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 after playing five or more straight overs in a row. That's the case here, as Chicago has indeed played to five overs in a row and in seven of its last 10). The Twins rank 16th in scoring and the Cubs are 19th. When it's all said and done, I look for this one to sneak under the total. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 49.5 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Featured Sunday Total is on SF/Phi Over at 1:00 ET. A couple of confident 1-0 teams collide in Week 2 and everything points to a shootout, rather than a chess match. San Francisco got an excellent game from QB Jimmy G (17 of 25 for 314 yards with one TD and zero INTs) and opened up a 38-10 lead in the 3rd quarter at Detroit last Sunday, However, the Lions scored 23 points in the final 16 1/2-minutes of the game to get the 'back-door' cover. That second half defense collapse doesn't bode well heading to Philadelphia to face Jalen Hurts and this high-flying Eagles offense. Philadelphia only had a 15-6 halftime lead over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday, but it dominated the second half en route to a 32-rout. QB Jalen Hurts looked sharp, finishing with 264 passing yards and three TDs, to three different receivers also had 62 rushing yards. RB Miles Sanders is healthy (that's BIG deal) and he added 74 rushing yards plus 39 receiving yards. Shutting down Atlanta is one thing, but doing the same to the 49ers will be much more difficult. San Francisco posted an 8.0-yard average while on offense. It did lose a couple fumbles (still scored 41 points) but it punted only twice and it conceded just a single sack. Making this an over play is that the San Francisco pas D allowed Detroit's Jared Goff to throw for 338 yards and three TDs. This game will be competitive and VERY high-scoring. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Important: As you can see by my write-up, I selected UNDER when I obviously meant Over! My 10* Division O/U of the Month (AL East) is on NYY/Bal Over at 5:05 ET.
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09-14-21 | Brewers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Mil/Det Under at 6:40 ET. Milwaukee barely made the expanded playoff field in 2020, 'sneaking' in at 29-31. However, the Brewers have no such worries in 2021, as at 89-55 they own a 14-game lead over the Reds in the NL Central. Detroit has no playoff aspirations, as the tigers check in at 68-76 (.472). That said, Detroit fans have to be happy that the Tigers are MUCH more respectable this season, after losing 98, 98 and 114 games from 2017 thru 2019, then going 23-35 (.397) in 2020's COVID-shortened season. These are two teams that normally struggle to plate runs on the best of nights and I expect that to be the case in the opener of this interleague series.
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic play is on Bal/LV Under at 8:15 ET. Baltimore has a really good team. It has a dynamic offense that averaged 29.3 points per game last year. The offense is run by LaMar Jackson, who had 2,757 yards, 26 TDs, and nine INTs last year. He also led the team with 1,005 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. But how will Baltimore adjust after losing Marcus Peters, J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards to injury ALL in the last week?! That's obviously the big question Baltimore was one of the best on the defensive side of the ball last season, finishing by conceding just 18.9 PPG. This tough Ravens' defense will be tasked to slow down Derrick Carr, who had 4,103 yards passing, 27 TDs, and nine INTs last year. Las Vegas also has a strong run game with Josh Jacobs, who had 1,065 rushing yards and 12 major scores last year. If Jon Gruden is going to make the playoffs with his new team for the first time in four years, clearly Las Vegas has to address its issues on the defensive end, a unit that conceded 29.9 PPG last year. I don't think Harbrough wants to let Gruden and the Raiders control the tempo. Baltimore wants to wear this home side down and win the war in the trenches and with great field position created by its defense. There are many different variable factors at play here that make me believe we'll see a low-scoring defensive game, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-21 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* IL Total of the Week is on Arz/Sea Under at 4:10 ET. Arizona has seen the total go over the number in EIGHT of its last 10 games, including the first two of this series.Seattle won 5-4 in Game 1 before Arizona won 7-3 here yesterday. Seattle has now seen the total go over the number in EIGHT straight (it's interesting to note though that the Mariners have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last 10 after playing to five or more straight overs in a row). So the fact that we've now seen eight straight overs from Seattle makes this trend even stronger in my opinion.) Tyler Gilbert (1-2, 3.12 ERA) gets the nod for Arizona. He's been decent, not great. He most recently is off a no-decision to Seattle last week, allowing three runs with four strikeouts over seven innings. The home side counters with Yusei Kikuchi (7-8, 4.32) who is off likely the worst start of his career, allowing six runs over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Astros on Monday. |
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09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills UNDER 49 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 146 h 7 m | Show |
My NFL Week 1 Featured Sunday Total is a 9* on Buf/Pit Under at 1:00 ET. Pittsburgh did well in the preseason, but without really addressing many issues across its offensive line in the offseason, many experts believe the Steelers are poised for a major step-back this year. Clearly, Ben Roethlisberer isn't getting any younger or more mobile, and I think he's going to be running for his life today against this revamped Buffalo pass rush in its first game of the season in front of the hometown crowd. Steelers' veteran head coach Mike Tomlin knows this though. And so we can expect the visiting side to run the ball early and often. This will also keep this potent Buffalo offense off the field as long as possible as well. Pittsburgh's strength last year was on the defensive side of the ball and that'll once again be the case this season. Buffalo has a Top-5 QB in Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs put up huge numbers in his first season with the Bills last year. But with a Week 2 matchup at division rival Miami in Week 2, the temptation to look ahead and be planning for that one is there as well for the home side. This is an explosive Buffalo offense, but it faces one of the stiffest defenses it'll see all season right out of the gates. If the Bills want to take the next step though, clearly they'll have to once again make strides on the defensive side of the ball. I expect a lot of running from each side. Also some hard-hosed defensive play. This total is more than a little too high. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* 'Best Bet' Total is on Was/Pit Over at 6:35 ET. Pittsburgh squeaked out a 4-3 win here yesterday. The Pirates have now seen the total go under the number in three straight (they've actually won three of their last four as well.) Washington has lost three of its last four and it's been alternating overs and unders for six straight games. After yesterday's low-scoring loss, I absolutely am expecting this strong pattern to continue here today. And really this is based completely upon these starting pitchers, both of whom I have no trust in whatsoever. Pittsburgh hands the ball to the volatile Wil Crowe (3-7, 5.94 ERA), who conceded seven earned runs over three innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Note that the rookie has been particularly inept on the road as well, going 2-2 with a 7.04 ERA. The home side counters with the equally as erratic Josiah Gray (0-2, 5.65), who was rocked for six runs off seven hits over three innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. He's now allowed six runs in each of his last two trips to the hill. As I said above, I DO NOT trust either of these starting pitchers. Finally, note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in EIGHT of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight unders in a row. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army UNDER 55 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on WKU/Army Under at 11:30 am ET. Western Kentucky rolled to a 59-21 win over Tennessee Martin in Week 1, and that total flew well over the number. Army is off a convincing 43-10 win over Georgia State, and that total also eclipsed the posted number. These teams didn't play against each other in the shortened COVID season last year, but they did in 2019 and Western Kentucky managed the 17-8 victory. They'll likely get a few more combined points here in this one, but I definitely expect a very defensive affair again, one which is dominated by the run game by each team while on offense. Bailey Zappe completed an unrealistic 80 percent of his passes for 424 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception in his team's win over lowly Tennessee Martin. The Knights are a run-first team. QB Christian Anderson completed only 50 percent of his passes for 40 yards, one touchdown, and zero interception in last week's win (the Army Black Knights have only six touchdown passes dating back to last season.) Army racked up 258 rushing yards in Week 1 and it'll look for a duplicate performance here as well against the Hilltoppers. It's hard to get a firm read on either team's defense at this point, as their opening opponent was pretty weak. But the bottom line is, both defenses looked good and there's no reason not to think that consistent play won't be carried over here as well. Look for this one to be decided in the trenches. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on Tex/Oak Over at 9:40 ET. The Rangers and A's open a three-game series tonight in Oakland and I expect the opener to result in plenty of offense. The Rangers are a sad-sack 51-88, while the 76-64 A's are in a five-team 'scramble' for the AL's two wild card spots. There's no way I'm laying this large home price, but as I said already, I do think this one sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair. Texas hands the ball to Glenn Otto (0-0, 1.86 ERA), who has made two MLB starts for the club, including going five scoreless against the Astros in his big league debut. The book is still clearly out on the rookie though, and there's no question that he draws a tough opponent here, and in a difficult road venue as well. However, Texas enters having won four straight, tying a season-best streak. The A's counter with Paul Blackburn (0-2, 4.12), who has made just four starts (1.43 WHIP and .300 BAA). been consistently inconsistent all season. He's made two appearances vs Texas in his short career, allowing seven ERs in just five innings (12.60 ERA). The over has ca$hed in FIVE straight between the clubs, including in SIX of the last eight in this ballpark. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-21 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the CWS/Oak Over at 3:37 ET. The A's broke a four-game slide with a 5-1 win here yesterday. Oakland can't afford to take the foot off the gas, as it's now in a dog fight for one of two wildcard spots with the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners.The White Sox have a comfortable 11-game lead in the AL Central, but they've seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or fewer runs in. Reynaldo Lopez (3-1, 2.08 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the lowly Royals on Saturday gets the start. Lopez has been great overall this year, but he's being forced into a starter's role out of necessity. Oakland counters with Sean Manaea (8-9, 3.91 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Blue Jays on Friday, allowing two runs over seven innings. He's been great overall, but it's interesting to note that he's 4-5 with a 3.37 ERA on the road, and just 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA at home. It's a big game for Oakland but note that the White Sox average 4.98 RPG on the road this year. The total has also gone over the number in five of Oakland's last six vs. other AL opponents. Lopez is going to only see a handful of innings in this one as well. When considering all of the above-listed information, I absolutely feel that the correct call as far as the total is concerned is on the over. And that's the play. It's Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on Min/Cle Under at 6:10 ET. The Twins are in the process of playing out the rest of the season, while the Indians still have hopes of going on a big win streak and sneaking into the playoffs. The opener of this series sets up as a lower-scoring one in my opinion. Cleveland hands the ball to Logan Allen (1-5, 6.62 ERA), who comes in under the radar, as over his last two outings he's posted an elite 2.13 ERA and 0.71 WHIP spanning 12.2 innings of work. This could be Allen's last start before heading back to the bullpen, and I think he'll make the most of it facing this poor Twins' hitting lineup. Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober (2-2, 3.98), who will work this game with Michael Pineda. Previous to that Ober allowed two runs and struck out five over six innings in a win over the Tigers. Over his last eight starts, he's now allowed 13 earned runs (2.81 ERA) with a 40/6 K/W in that span. I think the stage is set for these two "in form" starting hurlers to battle into the latter innings. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Division Total of the Year (AL Central) is on Cle/KC at 8:10 ET. Kansas City has lost the first two games of this series, and three games overall coming into the Thursday finale. The Indians have been playing much better of late, as they've won seven of their last ten, including three in a row. Both teams are hungry for victories and any sort of positive spin they can find despite not being in contention. The Royals hand the ball to the volatile Mike Minor (8-11, 5.30 ERA), who has looked a bit better of late, but who is still just 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA at home this season. The Indians counter with Triston McKenzie (3-5, 4.83), who returns from a short stint on the IL. McKenzie has actually been great over his last two starts, but immediate regression after the time off is imminent in my opinion (note that he's 2-4 with a ballooned 5.24 ERA on the road this season as well.) The recent form of starting pitchers is an important factor I always take into account when playing an Over/Under and while these two teams have struggled with offensive consistency this year, I do not trust either of these starters this evening. With each making an expected "early exit," the play here is definitely on the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-21 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 35 | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Total of the Month is on Mia/Cin Over at 4:00 ET. The Bengals are 1-1 SU in the preseason. They're 2-0 ATS. They won at Tampa Bay by a score of 19-14 in Week 1, and then lost 17-13 at Washington last week, covering with the five points they were afforded in that one. Both of those games stayed under the posted number as far as the total is concerned. With their only home preseason game today, I believe the Bengals open up the playbook today on offense with their backups, and wannabe's getting one last look. Miami is 1-1 SU and ATS. It lost 20-13 at Chicago in Week 1 but then rebounded with a convincing 37-17 victory at home over Atlanta last weekend. Suffice it to say, I believe the Fish are going to try and duplicate that performance here and to keep the positive momentum rolling into the regular season. I base a lot of my over/under selections on "situations." This one definitely sets up great as an offensive shootout in my opinion. I'll point out as well that Cincinnati has seen the total go over the posted number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 13 or less points in a SU road loss in its previous outing. In my opinion, both the situation and the trends point to this one flying over the number. Good luck...Larry |
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08-28-21 | Reds v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner O/U is on Cin/Mia Over at 6:10 ET. While yesterday's total stayed under the number in the Reds' 6-0 victory, I expect a bit more of a slug-fest between these two NL foes on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Vladamir Gutierrez (9-4, 3.68 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over these very Marlins last weekend. The rookie's on fire, but I believe he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. One possible concerning O/U ATS stat to keep in mind here today for Reds bettors, is that Miami has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent. Miami counters with Sandy Alcantara (7-12, 3.35), who lost to the Reds last Sunday despite allowing two runs over seven innings. He also had 11 strikeouts (note that he's 3-8 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this year.) I don't mind either of these pitchers, but overall (situationally and from a trend-based view), this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring affair. Look for this one to sail over sooner, rather than later. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-25-21 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner O/U is on Min/Bos Under at 7:10 ET. These team's played to a higher-scoring affair in Boston's 11-9 victory yesterday, but I expect much more of a "duel" here on Wednesday night. The Twins hand the ball to Bailey Ober (1-2, 4.38 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Indians on Tuesday. With his last start skipped over, Ober comes in extra fresh here and I say that matters. The home side counters with Nick Pivetta (9-6, 4.43), who is off an outing to forget against the Yankees, allowing four runs over just 1.2 innings last Wednesday. It was literally the shortest outing of his professional career. Previous to that dud, Pivetta had pitched back-to-back gems. I think the veteran will bounce back at home here in this favorable matchup. Finally, note that the Twins have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they conceded ten or more runs in. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-21 | Yankees v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on the NYY/Atl Under at 7:20 ET. These teams played to a lower-scoring affair last night, and everything points to another tight affair this evening. New York hands the ball to Andrew Heaney, while Atlanta counters with Charlie Morton. Heaney (8-8, 5.51 ERA) is coming off his strongest outing yet for the Yanks out of five tries, allowing one run over seven innings in a victory over the Red Sox. Morton (12-4, 3.47), is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 11 career starts against New York. These teams have been under machines of late and I expect that trend to carry over for at least one more game. Morton has in fact allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. I think Heaney will continue his progression as well. Look for these two competent starters to throw into the latter frames and as a result, expect this total to once again stay under the posted number. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-21 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
My IL 10* Total of the Year is on Phi/SD Over at 8:40 ET. Both teams have been struggling to plate runs. The Phillies are coming in off a much-needed 4-3 win last night. That broke a four-game slide. Philadelphia has now seen the total go under in four straight and in nine of its last ten. San Diego is the one reeling now, as it's lost eight of ten, including four in a row. It's seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten, including in its last four losses. These are two talented hitting line-ups and I think that tonight's posted total is finally a little too low. And that's because both of these starting pitchers are in poor form right now. The Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.48 ERA), who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA at home, and only 3-4 with a 5.59 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (8-8, 3.11), who was shelled for six earned runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona last weekend. The Padres are kicking themselves for not taking advantage of the ten walks allowed last night. They're clearly desperate now. Finally note, the Padres have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight unders in a row. Considering all of the above information, I do indeed feel this number is low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-21 | Tigers v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on Det/Tor Under at 7:07 ET. Detroit has been crushing the ball of late. It's been in several high-scoring games lately, as it's seen the total go over the number in six of its last seven, including in yesterday's 13-10 setback at home to the Angels. The Jays will be eager to return to the winners circle after losing five of their last six. That includes back-to-back road games in Washington, falling 12-6 and 8-5. Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four in a row. But I expect a duel here in the opener of this one. The Tigers hand the ball to Tyler Alexander (2-2, 4.57 ERA), who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Indians last Friday. Despite the pedestrian outing, he's still posted a combined 3.77 ERA over his last three starts. But I do really like Robbie Ray. I'm not going to lay the large price on the home side, but I do expect Ray to have a big night. He's 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA this season. He most recently conceded two runs with eight strikeouts over seven innings against the Mariners. It was the southpaws fifth straight quality start. One O/U ATS trend worth mentioning sees that Jays having seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight overs in a row. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-21 | A's v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* AL Total of the Year is on Oak/CWS Over at 2:10 ET. Oakland is second in the AL West at 68-53. Houston is 70-50. After four straight losses, clearly the A's are now desperate to get back into the winners circle. I think this desperation is going to lead to some production at the plate in the finale of this four-game series. So far Chicago has taken the first three games, winning 5-2, 9-0 and 3-2. Both starters have been decent, but I think the overall situation will lead to a higher-scoring game here finally. The A's hand the ball to Cole Irvin (8-11, 3.52 ERA), who is starting to show some cracks in the armor, most recently allowing five runs off eight hits over five innings to the lowly Rangers on Friday. The rookie has likely exceeded expectations to this point, but there's no doubt he draws a difficult assignment in a tough road venue tonight. The home side counters with Dylan Cease (9-6, 4.04), who gave up three runs in a no-decision against the Yankees on Saturday. Cease will have his hands full against this hungry Oakland team though in my estimation, as note that the Athletics have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last nine after playing to three or more straight unders in a row. The overall situation points to this contest eclipsing the posted number as it gets into the latter frames. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-16-21 | A's v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Situational Stunner is on Oak/CWS Under at 8:10 ET. Both teams are hungry for a victory. I say the opener of this series sets up as pitchers duel. The A's hand the ball to Frankie Montas (9-8, 3.98 ERA), who gave up two runs (one earned) with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Wednesday. It was his sixth straight quality start. Montas now owns a sharp 146/36 K/W over 131 innings of work and he's been at his best on the road, going 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Dallas Keuchel (7-6, 4.51), who gave up four runs over six innings in a loss to the Twins. Still, Keuchel has gone at least six innings in four of his last six outings and he's 4-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home this season. Five of the last seven between these clubs have indeed fallen under the number and as outlined here, I expect that low-scoring trend to carry over here in Game 1 of this series. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |