03-25-22 |
Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 132.5 |
Top |
56-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 22 m |
Show
|
My 10* Sweet 16 Total of the Year is on Iowa St/Miami OVER at 9:59 ET. Four double-digit seeds made it to the Sweet 16 this year. Michigan (No. 11) lost last night to Villanova and it's hard to see St Peter's (No. 15) beating 29-7 Purdue (No. 3) tonight. However, we KNOW that at least one double-digit team will advance to the Elite 8 because the 10th-seeded Miami Hurricanes (25-10) and the 11th-seeded Iowa State Cyclones (22-12) meet Friday night in the Midwest regional semifinal at Chicago's United Center. Who'da thunk it! Miami came into the season off an 'ugly 10-17 year (4-15 in the ACC), while Iowa St was 2-22 (0-18 in the Big 12) during the 2020-21 season! Miami coughed up a late lead in its first-round game against seventh-seeded USC before winning 68-66 and then two days later, the Hurricanes trounced No. 2 seed Auburn 79-61. Iowa State began with a tournament-opening upset of No. 6 seed LSU (59-54) and then essentially had a road assignment Sunday in facing Wisconsin in Milwaukee. However, the Cyclones emerged with another impressive win, beating the third-seeded Badgers 54-49. Jim Larranaga entered this season having led the Hurricanes to six, 20-win seasons in his 10 years, to all three of the school's 25-win seasons and to two of the school's three Sweet 16 appearances. By the way, I could also throw in him leading unheralded George Mason to a Final 4 appearance back in 2006. The 'Canes were awful last season (see above) but this year's team contended for the ACC title during the regular season, before losing in the ACC semifinals to top-seeded Duke. Miami is led by the guard trio of McGusty (17.5 & 4.9), Wong (15.5 & 4.3) and Moore (12.8 & 4.6 APG). Miller is a fourth guard and adds 10.1 & 6.0. Miami's lone big man of note is the 6-10 Waardenburg (8.4 & 4.2), although the 6-9 Walker contributes 5.11 & 2.4 in just 14 MPG. T.J. Otzelberger came from UNLV to take over at Iowa St and the Cyclones opened 12-0 and were ranked No. 8 thru Dec 21. The team couldn't keep up that pace but then came the two back-to-back tourney wins. A trio of guards lead the way for Iowa St, starting with standout Izaiah Brockington, who leads the team in scoring (17.21 and rebounding (6.8). He's joined on the perimeter by PG Hunter (10.9 & 4.9 APG) and Kalscheur (9.5). The team's frontcourt rotation is led by the 6-8 Kunc (6.1 & 3.9) and the 6-9 Conditt (4.9 & 3.5). Guard Grill (6.5) is the first player off the bench and each one of the just mentioned players have participated in all of Iowa St's 34 games this season. With Iowa St winning its first two games by scores of 59-54 and 54-49, it would be easy to say, "go under!" However, as Lee Corso loves to say, "Not so Fast!" Miami just scored 79 points in beating Auburn (despite making only 3 of 15 on threes) by using their quickness and experience. Both teams own excellent (and deep) backcourts and I expect BOTH teams to surpass 70 points in tonight's contest. This one is Goin' over! Good luck...Larry
|
01-26-22 |
Marquette v. Seton Hall OVER 146 |
Top |
73-63 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
My 10* Conference O/U Game of the Year (Big East) is on Marquette/Seton Hall Over at 8:30 ET. Shaka Smart was booted out of Austin but has done quite a job at Marquette, which did not return a SINGLE starter from last season's disappointing 13-14 team. Few teams in college hoops are hotter than Marquette (14-6 / 6-3 Big East), which entered the AP poll for the first time this past Monday at No. 22 (more details to follow). The Golden Eagles' visit Newark, NJ to face a revenge-minded Seton Hall team on Wednesday night. The Pirates opened 9-1 and were ranked 15th, before losing FIVE of their last eight to fall to 12-6 (3-5 Big East) and out of the rankings. Marquette was 3-0 last week, beating Seton Hall, Villanova and Xavier (all were ranked at the time). Smart had a disappointing six-year run at Texas but despite a four-game losing streak this season, he has confidence that his team has learned from its earlier losses. "Losing four in a row... I think what you take out of that as a team is we can win, we can find a way to win those games, but we've got to be a little bit better in a variety of areas," Smart said. "And I think we've continued to get better." Marquette has a deep eight-man rotation, led by 6-7 freshman Lewis (15.8 & 7.9) and Maryland transfer, Morsell (13.9 & 3.5). Joining that duo in the starting lineup are freshman guard Kolek (6.4 & 4.0) plus frontcourt players like the 6-8 Prosper (5.8 & 3.4) and the 6-10 Kuath (5.4 & 4.5), Adding depth are guard Elliott (8.1), freshman guard Jones (7.7) and 6-9 freshman Ighodaro (6.3 & 3.7). Kevin Willard took over at Seton hall for the 2010-11 season and had led the Pirates to four straight NCAA tournaments before the 2020 tournament was canceled because of COVID (Seton Hall was 21-9). However, the Pirates were just 14-13 last year and lost to the 6-10 Mamukelashvili (17.5 & 7.6), who was co-player-of-the-year in the Big East. However, the Pirates have EIGHT players scoring between 6.5 and 15.7 PPG. 6-6 swingman Rhoden leads in scoring (15.7), while adding 6.9 RPG. Senior guards Aiken (14.5) and Cole (10.0 & 4.1) join Rhoden in double digits. The 6-8 Yetna just misses at 9.9 PPG but is the team's leading rebounder at 7.9 per game. Two 6-10 players, Samuel (8.5 & 6.3) and Jackson (7.2 & 3.9) plus guards Richmond (8.1-3.7-3.7) and Harris (6.5) complete Seton Hall's 'Great 8.' Marquette hosted Seton Hall back on Jan 15 in a back-and-forth affair, decided by a controversial late whistle. With the game tied at 72, Marquette's Greg Elliott leaned into the Pirates' Bryce Aiken while attempting a shot, elbowing Aiken in the nose. However, the officials called the foul on Aiken, and Elliott's free throw with one second left won the game for Marquette. Aiken scored 28 points that day but entered concussion protocol and hasn't played since. That said, as noted above, Seton Hall has the depth to 'cover' Aiken's absence. That Jan 15 game ended 73-72 but I expect a higher-scoring game here, one in which Seton Hall avenges that loss with an OUTSTANDING offensive effort. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry
|
03-07-20 |
Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 |
Top |
69-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 43 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on Washington/Arizona Over at 10:00 ET.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 2017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans (big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels) plus added a third with the transfer of guard Quade Green from Kentucky. However, after a 10-2 start, the Huskies' season imploded. Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible after a Jan 5 win against USC and Washington has gone 3-12 without him (lost NINE straight from Jan 18-Feb 20).
Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. Arizona has been in and out of the top-15 all season but is currently unranked (20-10 / 10-7 in Pac 120 as it host Washington in its regular season finale.
Freshman "big men" Stewart (16.6 & 8.7) and McDaniels (12.8 & 5.8) have been as good as advertised, but the loss of Green was just "too much." Washington is locked into last place after winning the Pac-12 regular-season title by three games a year ago but it did spring a 90-83 upset at Arizona State on Thursday night. The Huskies shot 50.8 percent in notching their first conference road victory of the season. Guard Nahziah Carter (12.8 & 5.0) matched his career high with 23 points, while Jaden McDaniels added 16 points off the bench and Isaiah Stewart finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds, the 13th double-double of his standout freshman season.
Arizona entered Thursday’s contest against Washington St with a season-long three-game losing streak and proceeded to fall behind the Cougars 31-29 at the half. However, the Wildcats took charge with a 26-0 run and wound up shooting 58.9 percent over the final 20 minutes, in the 83-62 win. Freshman PG Nico Mannion (14.1 & 5.4 APG) scored a game-high 23 points and also dished out seven assists. Fellow freshmen, the 6-11 Zeke Nnaji (16.4 & 8.5) had 21 points and guard Josh Green (11.9 & 4.6) also finished in double figures (12 points). Green returned to action after a two-game absence due to a back sprain. However, was without 6-10 center Chase Jeter (6.8 & 4.3, who has been suspended for the final two regular-season contests due to a violation of team rules and guard Max Hazard (5/3, who didn’t play for the second time in three games due to unspecified personal reasons.
Here's where we are. Thursday's win lifted Arizona into a four-way tie for third place in the Pac-12 with Colorado, USC and Arizona State. A win here just could help the Wildcats secure a top-four finish and the corresponding first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament in Las Vegas. Mike Hopkins "Boeheim-like zone" has been routinely shredded and I expect Arizona to score in the 80s, as the Wildcats scored 75 points in a three-point win in Seattle back on Jan 30. That said, don't be so sure Washington won't "stay close" and that means the game could go WAY over this number. Yes, Washington is 4-13 in the Pac-12, but the Huskies have OUTSCORED the opposition by six total points in conference play!! Washington has made a habit out of dropping the close ones, going 0-7 in league games decided by four points or fewer. Both teams were in the 70s in the first meeting and both are coming off excellent shooting games on Thursday (see above). This one flies over the total.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-04-20 |
Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 117.5 |
Top |
46-44 |
Loss |
-111 |
15 h 37 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on UVA/Mia-Fl Over at 9:00 ET.
Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won SIX straight and NINE of 10 to reach 21.7. They are 13-5 and tied with Duke for third in the ACC. Virginia climbed back into AP top-25 at No. 22 on Monday and there is no longer ANY talk of missing the "Big Dance."
Jim Larranga famously led George Mason to the Final Four back in 2006 and has been at Miami since the 2011-12 season. He won 20-plus games in SIX of his first seven years at Miami (four NCAA teams) but the team was just 14-18 last year and now 14-12 this season, including 6-12 in ACC play. The Hurricanes are returning home from a disappointing 1-2 road swing, which included a miserable showing Saturday in a 63-57 loss at Georgia Tech (note: Miami scored a season-low 24 points in the first half).
The 6-9 Diakite and 5-9 PG Clark are the returning starters from last year's defending champs and Diatke leads in scoring at 13.6 PPG, while adding 6.6 RPG. Clark naturally leads the team in assists (6.0) and adds 10.7 PPG. The 6-8 Key joins him in the backcourt and he adds 10.2 PPG and a team-high 7.4 RPG. Woldetensae is fairly new to the starting lineup and while he's been 'quiet' the last two games (only a combined five points), he had 13.3 PPG his previous eight. 7-1 junior center Jay Huff (8.1 & 6.1) had one of the best games of his career on Saturday in a 52-50 home win over then-No. 7 Duke. He nearly had a triple-double, finishing with 15 points, 10 blocks and nine rebounds.
The Hurricanes are close to full strength with Chris Lykes, Kameron McGusty and Rodney Miller all back from injuries. Lykes (15.2) leads a solid guard trio that also includes Vasiljevic (13.2 & 4.2) and McGusty (13.0 & 4.1). However, freshman guard Isaiah Wong (7.6) had his streak of NINE straight games with double-digit scoring halted with a six-point effort against Georgia Tech. Rodney Miller Jr., Miami's 7-foot, 255-pound redshirt junior center, provides some scoring from the post as well as rebounding, averaging 7.6 points and 5.8 rebounds. He is joined up front by the 6-10 Waardenburg (6.2 & 5.9).
Jim Larranaga (now 70-years-old) is in danger of having his SECOND straight losing season, which would mark the first time that's happened to him since 1991-93, when he coached at Bowling Green. Not sure Miami can best UVA but I do believe the 'Canes will bounce-back from their 'ugly' effort at Ga Tech. Yes, UVA allows just 52.6 PPG (1st) but Miami averages 72.5 PPG. It's another low total for UVA and the Cavs should not have trouble against a Miami D allowing 74.6 PPG, 301st in the nation. Go Over!
Good lucky...Larry
|
02-29-20 |
Duke v. Virginia OVER 123.5 |
Top |
50-52 |
Loss |
-114 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
My 9* play is on Duke/UVA Over at 6:00 ET.
Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won FIVE straight and EIGHT of nine to reach 20.7. They are 12-5 and solidly in 4th-place in the ACC (no more wavering NCAA Tourney worries). Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils have lost TWO of their last three, one being a 22-point setback at North Carolina State and the most recent a double-overtime defeat at Wake Forest on Tuesday in which the sub-.500 Demon Deacons scored 113 points. Duke is ranked No. 7 in the latest AP poll at 23-5 (13-4 ACC) but all of sudden, UVA can tie Duke for 3rd in the ACC with a home win on Saturday.
"I'm disappointed in our group," Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters Tuesday. "I didn't think we came the way we should and the way we've practiced. We show our youth so much. ... This is our 28th game. You'd hope that we'd be older by now, but we were not tonight." In contrast, the Cavaliers are showing plenty of maturity by surviving a string of close games, as SEVEN of their victories during the 8-1 surge have come by seven points or fewer. I'm no big fan of this Duke team but I won't play against them off that embarrassing loss to Wake. However, Duke averages 83.8 PPG (2nd) and just FOUR of its 28 games ha seen a total close at less than 140 points (note: all FOUR have gone Over!). The over/under here opened 123!!! I'm Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-29-20 |
Florida v. Tennessee OVER 130.5 |
Top |
58-63 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on Florida/Tennessee Over at 2:00 ET.
Expectations were high for Florida entering this season, as the Gators were able to get the most sought after graduate transfer on the market in the 6-10 Kerry Blackshear. The Orlando native played at Va Tech but when Tech head coach Buzz Williams left for A&M, Blackshear decided to 'come home.' The Gators were ranked 6th in both preseason polls but disappointed early on. However, the Gators are coming off one of their most impressive victories of the season, 15-point victory at home over LSU on Wednesday. Florida is now 18-10 and in a three-way tie for 3rd in the SEC at 10-5 (just ONE game back of 11-4 Auburn, the SEC's No. 2 seed). Rick Barnes lost plenty from last year's team, most notably, two-time SEC player of the year, Grant Williams. He then lost senior PG Lamonte Turner (12.3-3.5-7.1) for the season after 11 games to shoulder surgery. The Volunteers get set to host the Gators at just 15-13 overall, including 7-8 in SEC play.
Sophomore SF Keyontae Johnson had a career-high 25 points and 11 rebounds in the win over LSU and now leads the Gators in scoring (14.3 PPG), while adding 7.2 PPG. The 6-10 Blackshera is right behind him at 13.1 PPG and just a little bit ahead of him with 7.5 RPG. PG Andrew Nembhard (11.8 & 5.4 APG) leads an excellent guard trio that also includes Locke (10.1) and Lewis (8.20.
The loss of Turner hurt but the good news was freshman guard Santiago Vescovi surprisingly became eligible in December and he's averaged 11.0-3.4-3.9 in 16 games since joining the team. Veteran guards Bowden (13.8 & 4.0) and Pons (11.0 & 5.4) are both in double figures, as is the 6-9 Fulkerson (12.8 & 6.0). 6-6 freshman Jordan-Jones (7.0 & 5.5) has also been a solid addition.
The Volunteers set themselves up for failure by falling behind 14-1 less than five minutes into the game at Arkansas on Wednesday (lost 86-69). "I am troubled (by it) because it's the same old record. We keep talking about it," head coach Rick Barnes told the media of the slow starts. "It's just guys that aren't doing what they need to do. Just not executing." The Vols should start better here vs Florida (could they start worse?) but slowing the Gators will not be easy. Florida has won FOUR of five (lone loss at now-No. 8 Kentucky) and has averaged 77.0 PPG in those four wins. This over/under is a little low, considering the way Florida's offense is clicking plus noting that SEVEN of Tennessee's last 10 games have gone over. This one is Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-26-20 |
Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 111 |
Top |
56-53 |
Loss |
-107 |
13 h 52 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Month is on UVA/Va Tech Over at 7:00 ET.
Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost and is now 19-7 and at 11-5, is solidly in 4th-place in the ACC. Mike Young spent 17 years at Wofford, where he led the Terriers to five NCAA appearances, including last season. Wofford defeated Seton Hall 84-68 in LY's Big Dance, giving him the first NCAA Tournament win of his career. He took over at Va Tech, when Buzz Williams used Tech's Sweet 16 appearance last season to take the Texas A&M job. Young lost Va Tech's leading scorer from last year (Alexander-Walker at 16.2) to the NBA and couldn't convince the 6-10 Blackshear (14.9 & 7.5) to stay (he's a graduate transfer at Florida). The Hokies surprised by opening 6-0 and after a two-OT win over UNC on Jan 22, were 14-5 (5-3 in the ACC). However, 'the bottom has fallen out' for Va Tech, with SEVEN losses in its last eight games.
UVA's "Core 4" this season has been its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.8-4.2-6.0) and the 6-8 Key (10.0 & 7.2), teamed with the 6-9 Diatke (13.4 & 6.7) and the 7-1 Huff (8.1 & 6.0). However, after a poor start to the season, Tomas Woldentensae (a 6-5 junior guard from Italy) has emerged as the offensive wild card the Cavaliers have been seeking. He's now 30 of 67 (44.8%) from three-point range over his last eight games, while averaging 13.3 PPG. Virginia has found some nice offensive balance in winning SEVEN of eight (lone 'clunker' was a 50-49 OT win over Notre Dame) and has had a different player lead in scoring in each of its last four games.
While UVA has won seven of eight, Va Tech enters this contest having lost seven of eight. The Hokies dropped an 88-64 decision to then-No. 6 Duke the last time out, sinking to 11th in the ACC (15-12 / 6-10). SEVEN of Va Tech's top-eight scorers are guards. Two freshman lead the way, Landers Nolley II (16.7 & 6.1) and Tyrece Radford (10.4 & 6.3). However, Nolley is mired in a dismal shooting slump that has seen him make just 8-of-44 shots, including 2-of-17 from three-point range, in a three-game stretch. Radford is trending in the other direction and after leading the Hokies with 16 points in the loss to Duke, is averaging 16.3 points over a seven-game span on 57.1 percent shooting. 6-5 SF Horne (7.1 & 4.3) is the lone frontcourt player of note but note that Va Tech's two freshman guards are the team's top rebounders (see above).
UVA has a HUGE edge inside with Diatke and Huff plus while the Cavs are surging, the Hokies' season is slipping away. When these teams met back on Jan 4, UVA won 65-39, as Va Tech was a HORRIFIC 13 of 48 from the floor (27.1%), including 4 of 25 on threes. The Hokies CAN'T shoot that poorly again, plus the Cavs have found, at least for them, an offensive 'groove.' Va Tech averages 70.6 PPG and allows 66.8 PPG on the season, so a LOW over/under like this (total opened 113 and immediately, fell) is VERY tempting. A look at Va Tech's entire schedule finds just THREE over/under numbers (of 27 games) closing at less than 130 points. Va Tech has averaged 75,4 PPG at home this season and will bring its "A-game" against the defending champs, after that 'ugly' 39-point effort Jan 4 in Charlottesville. FOUR of UVA's last five games have gone "over the total,' including the last three. Make it FOUR straight 'overs' here!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-22-20 |
Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 108 |
Top |
59-56 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
My 10* Eye-Opener is on UVA/Pitt Over at 12 noon ET.
Virginia lost FOUR of five games from Jan 7 thru Jan 20 and that slide began talk that the reigning national champions might not even make the NCAA Tournament, as the Cavs were just 126, including 4-4 in ACC play. However, Virginia appears to finally have found some answers to its season-long search for offensive weapons, as the Cavs cored a season-high 78 points in a 13-point win over Boston College on Wednesday in reaching 10 ACC wins for a school-record eighth straight season (18-7 overall / 10-5 in ACC). UVA looks for its SEVENTH win in its last eight games at Pittsburgh on Saturday, in the only game between the teams this season. Jeff Capel's team lost its SIXTH game in its last eight in Tuesday's 82-67 home loss to No. 8 Florida State, but the head coach Jeff Capel was quick to point out that the team has already surpassed last season's win total and has more ACC wins then the last two years combined.
UVA's "Core 4" this season has been its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.6-4.2-6.6) and the 6-8 Key (10.0 & 7.2), teamed with the 6-9 Diatke (13.5 & 6.6) and 7-1 Huff (8.2 & 6.2). However, after a poor start to the season, Tomas Woldentensae (a 6-5 junior guard from Italy) has emerged as the offensive wild card the Cavaliers have been seeking. In THREE of his previous six games, he'd made six or more three-pointers, and in Wednesday win made four of eight on his way to 14 points. He's now 28 for 60 (46.7%) over his last seven games, averaging 13.7 PPG. Pittsburgh has FIVE guards all playing 28-plus minutes per game, chipping in between 8.9 and 12.4 PPG. Freshman Champagnie leads in scoring (12.4) and rebounding (7.2), while sophomores McGowens (12.1-3.5-3.6) and Johnson (11.8-3.8-5.1) join him in double digits.
Virginia has won four straight in the series and 11 of 12.The Cavs come in off their beat offensive game of the season and the Panthers have struggled on defense, ranking last in ACC games in effective field-goal percentage (51.9) and defensive rebound percentage (66.3). On the season, Pitt scores 65.9 PPG and allows 64.6. Looking at Pitt's entire schedule, this is the lowest over/under number posted on a Pittsburgh game (opened 109). One has to go back to neutral-site games vs Kansas St on Nov 25 (total closed 117.5) and Northwestern on Nov 27 (120) to see anything close to this low. FYI...Both of those games went over, as will this one!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-19-20 |
Boston College v. Virginia OVER 114 |
Top |
65-78 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on BC/UVA Over at 8:00 ET. Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it visited Chestnut Hill on Jan 7 to take on Boston College. The Eagles upset UVA 60-53 in that contest and that loss began a midseason slump for the Cavs, as UVA lost three straight and FOUR of five. However, the defending champs have managed to rebound of late with a series of close wins, going 5-1 since that 1-4 stretch.
BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). BC knew it would really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but the Eagles got off to a 4-1 start. However, the team has been exchanging wins and losses for about a month and enters this contest 13-13, including 7-8 in ACC play. Case in point being, losing 85-58 at Miami (Fla) last Wednesday, only to knock off North Carolina State 71-68 on Sunday at home. FYI...BC's seven ACC wins matches its best ACC win total under Christian.
Senior guard Derryck Thornton, USC grad transfer, has been a big addition. He scored 22 points in BC's win over NC St and averages a team-high 13.1 PPG. Freshman guard Jay Heath contributed 16 points in Sunday's win and is second on the team in averaging 12.6 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic (10.5 & 5.2) is the team's third double digit scorer plus the Hamilton brothers, 6-8 sophomore Jairus (9.7 & 4.4) and senior guard Jared (8.1), are quality players. The 6-8 Mitchell (7.2 & 8.4) is the team's leading rebounder plus 6-7 freshman Felder (5.8 & 4.0) has had a nice season.
The Cavaliers' recent surge gives them a 17-7 record (9-5 in the ACC) and has greatly improved their NCAA Tournament resume. This season's UVA team has been led for most of the season by its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.3-4.3-6.1) and the 6-8 Key (9.7 & 7.2). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.7 & 6.5) and the 7-1 Huff (8.0 & 6.2). Those players have been UVA's "Core 4" but recently, junior guard Tomas Woldetensae (6.9) has been the team's breakout star. He scored 27 points in an 80-73 loss at Louisville on (73 points scored are a season-high for UVA this season) and then his three-pointer with 0.8 second remaining was the difference in UVA's 64-62 win Saturday at North Carolina. Also, freshman guard Casey Morsell (4.3 PPG) scored 10 points - more than twice his season average - and collected a career-high three steals at North Carolina.
Revenge should work well for UVA here but note that all FIVE of the team's wins over this current six-game stretch have come by single digits, including two in overtime plus that last-second 64-62 triumph at North Carolina. However, I'm expecting Braxton Key to break out of a three-game slump in which he has produced a total of 12 points on 5-of-19. BC's leading scorer, Thornton, missed the first matchup while Heath led the Eagles to a 60-53 win with 17 points on 6-of-8 shooting. Virginia has won five straight meetings at home vs BC and makes it SIX straight but Goin' Over this VERY low total is "the play!"
Good luck...Larry
|
02-15-20 |
Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 118 |
Top |
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 35 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on Virginia/North Carolina Over at 8:00 ET.
North Carolina is already aware it will need to win the ACC Tournament if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament (fat chance!) but defending champion Virginia still has hope that a strong finish will help it avoid a similar fate. The Cavaliers held on for a 50-49 overtime home victory Tuesday over Notre Dame, prevailing despite making only one FG over the final 6 1/2 minutes of regulation and settling for just THREE free throws in the extra period. As for the Tar Heels, they hit a new low on Tuesday, falling into last place in the ACC following a 74-57 loss at Wake Forest three days after nearly upsetting No. 7 Duke. North Carolina is in the midst of its third losing streak of at least four games in 2019-20, something that had never happened in program history prior to this season.
I'm just "cutting to the chase" for this one. Virginia's 'ugly' performance against Notre Dame (just 50 points in a 45-minute OT win), followed UVA's best offensive effort of the season in the Cavs' previous game. UVA lost 80-73 at Louisville (a good defensive team!), shooting 53.1% overall, including 11 of 22 on threes (went just 5 of 20 on threes vs ND!). As for the Tar Heels, they shot 33.3% for the game, including an abysmal 1 of 16 on threes against Wake (a notably poor defensive team), coming off a 98-96 OT loss vs Duke. Against Coach K's team, North Carolina shot 52.2% for the game and had 84 points in regulation.
As Vince Lombardi one famously cried out, "What the hell is going on out there!" When these two schools met at Charlottesville back on Dec 8, they combined to shoot 22.6% on threes in a 56-47 UVA win. With both coming off horrendous shooting efforts on Tuesday, my bet is we'll see some 'real' basketball played. Go OVER!
Good luck...Larry
|
02-05-20 |
Clemson v. Virginia OVER 107 |
Top |
44-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
12 h 57 m |
Show
|
My CBB 10* Total of the Week is on Clemson/Virginia Over at 7:00 ET.
Clemson's Brad Brownwell is in his 10th year as the school's head coach and the season is NOT going well. He led the Tigers to an NCAA bid in his first season but over the next eight years, made just one NCAA appearance (Sweet 16 trip in 2018 in which Clemson won 25 games). However, the Tigers settled for the NIT last season and just 20 wins. Clemson returned just ONE starter this season and currently sits 11-10, including 5-6 in ACC play as it travels to Charlottesville to take on Virginia. The Cavs won the national championship last April (school's first-ever) and began the season ranked 11th in the AP preseason poll. UVA opened 7-0 and was ranked 5th when they Cavs lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. The Cavs began 2020 with a dominating 65-39 win over Va Tech (Jan 4), giving them an 11-2 overall record, including 3-0 in the ACC but then lost THREE in a row (all league games), before winning THREE of their last four.
6-8 junior forward Aaamir Simms leads Clemson in scoring (13.3) and rebounding (7.6), while senior guard Tevin Mack is the only other player averaging in double figures scoring (12.1 PPG and 5.5 RPG). Sophomore guard John Newman III (9.6) is just shy of double digits and the reason is that he hasn't scored in double figures since posting 14 at Duke on Jan 14. Clemson is coming off perhaps its worst game of the season, losing 56-44 at Wake Forest (Demon Deacons are 10-11 overall, including 3-8 in ACC play). The Tigers connected on just 30.5% of their shots, including a 4 of 21 (19.0%) effort on threes.
Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). Those current NBA players have proven hard to replace. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.2 & 7.4) and 5-9 PG Clark (10.3-4.5-5.9). The team's most consistent player is 6-9 senior forward Mamadi Diakite, who leads the team in scoring (13.5) and is second to Key in rebounding (6.9). The 7-1 Huff (8.4 & 6.0) joins Diatka up front and this "Core 4" represents Virginia's main contributors, although three other guards do combine to chip in 14.5 PPG.
UVA is once again the nation's best defensive team, allowing just 50.7 PPG on 35.8% shooting (rank 1st in both categories). So why go "Over?" Clemson's going nowhere this season but the team CAN"T possibly shoot as poorly as it did the last time out, even against UVA's great D. Note that Clemson shoots 42.4% on the season (NOT 30.5% like vs Wake), including 31.6% on threes (NOT 19.0% like vs Wake). In fact, Clemson is averaging 67.9 PPG on the season (more than three 'TDs' higher than the 44 it scored vs Wake). As for Virginia, the team's ov/un lines on games have averaged 112.0 (closing number) over its last 10, with SEVEN of then Goin' Over! Expect a final in the mid-120s or higher!
Good luck...Larry
|
01-29-20 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois OVER 118 |
Top |
63-68 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on Loy-Chi/Sou Ill Over at 8:00 ET.
Porter Moser's Loyola-Chicago Ramblers made that great run to the Final 4 in 2018, finishing with 32 wins. Last year's team won a more modest 20 games, after losing in the NIT's first round. Gone from last season were Custer and Townes, who won back-to-back POY honors in the MVC, as well as Ingram. However, the Ramblers are making a strong run at winning the MVC this season. However, the Ramblers lost a tough one this past Sundat at Cedar Falls, losing 67-62 in OT to Northern Iowa. Loyola-Chicago fell to 14-7 overall and 6-2 in the MVC, dropping them into a tie with Northern Iowa for first place.
Southern Illinois is coming off a 17-15 season (10-8 in MVC play) and opened the year with a new head coach, Bryan Mullins. Mullins was the starting point guard on SIU's 2007 Sweet 16 team and is in Southern Illinois' Hall of Fame. Ironically, he's spent the last four years as an under Porter Moser at Loyola. Southern Illinois improved to 11-10 overall and 5-3 in MVC play following its 58-55 victory at Illinois State on Saturday. The victory was the first for the Salukis at Redbird Arena since 2006.
Three starters did return for Loyola this season and are contributing as expected. 6-9 center Krutwig leads in scoring (15.2), rebounding (8.13 and assists (4.5). He led the Ramblers with 19 points and 14 rebounds in Sunday's loss. Guard Williamson chips in 8.9 & 3.5 and the 6-7 Uguak adds 5.3 & 3.2. Also making a big impact are 6-6 swingman Hall (13.8 & 4.1), a JC transfer, and freshman guard Kennedy (9.0). Keith Clemons averaged 15.1 points and 5.1 assists per game in 2018-19, while helping Vincennes to a 34-2 overall record and the NJCAA Division I national championship, became eligible at the start of December and has averaged 8.8 points in 13 games.
Marcus Domask is a 6-6 freshman aswingman and he is the leading scorer for Southern Illinois with an average of 14.1 PPG (also adds 5.2 RPG), while the 6-10 Barret Benson is the leading rebounder with an average of 5.4 per game, while adding 9.7 PPG. Senior guard McGill (10.3 & 4.3) and freshman guard Jones (7.30 are the team's top-producing guards but SIU has depth on the perimeter, as four other guards are combining for 17.5 PPG.
Loyola is holding opponents to 60.5 PPG (15th) but while the Ramblers average 69.5 PPG, the team shoots 50.9% from the floor (3rd-best in the nation). This is a VERY low over/under number but note that here at home, SIU lost early in the season to San Francisco at SIU Arena but has since won EIGHT in a row at home. The Salukis check in 9-1 at home, averaging 67.9 PPG. The Salukis were awful at Loyola back on Jan 16, shooting 36.0% from the floor, including 4 of 25 on threes, while scoring just 48 points. Revenge may be the way to go but even more, I expect SIU to play and shoot MUCH better plus I'm NOT discounting Loyola's 50.9% shooting, either. This LOW total is Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
|
01-26-20 |
Virginia v. Wake Forest OVER 118 |
Top |
65-63 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Month is on Virginia/Wake Forest Over at 12:00 ET.
Virginia won the national championship last April (school's first-ever) but the Cavaliers appear to be just another middle-of-the-pack ACC team as January 2020 nears its end. The Cavs began the season ranked 11th in the AP preseason poll and opened 7-0. They were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4 and as 2020 dawned, the Cavs began with a dominating 65-39 win over Va Tech (Jan 4), giving them an 11-2 overall record, including 3-0 in the ACC. However, the Cavs have lost FOUR of their last five, as they try to "right the ship" Sunday at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have also lost four of five after Tuesday's 71-68 defeat at Clemson, leaving them 9-9 overall and just 2-6 in ACC play (Cavs are 4-4)
Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). Those current NBA players have proven hard to replace. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.2 & 7.2) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.8-4.3-5.9). The team's most consistent player is 6-9 senior forward Mamadi Diakite, who leads the team in scoring (13.1) and is second to Key in rebounding (6.8). The 7-1 Huff (9.0 & 6.1) joins Diatka up front and this "Core 4" is basically Virginia's team this season.The Cavs broke a three-game slide witha 63-58 win at Ga Tech on Jan 18th but dropped a 53-51 decision at home Monday to North Carolina State, after fighting back from an 11-point, second-half deficit to take a four-point lead with 4 1/2 minutes left. Clark led the offense with 10 points Monday and Diakite blocked three shots to move into third on Virginia's career list with 142. Freshman guard Casey Morsell (4.6 PPG) tallied nine points and five rebounds in 32 minutes off the bench. However, after shooting 47.2% in the win over Ga Tech, the Cvs shot just 36.0& against the Wolfpack.
Danny Manning is now in his sixth season as Wake's head coach and it would be hard to say that things are headed in the right direction. He had just ONE winning season in his first five (65-93, .411 overall) and as noted, is 9-9 (2-6 ACC) so far this season. The Demon Deacons led by six at the half against Clemson but the Tigers rallied and freshman Ismael Massoud's game-tying three-point attempt missed in the closing seconds. Wake has THREE double digit scorers in veteran guard Childress (15.2 & 4.7 APG) and Brown (13.3 & 6.5) plus 7-0 junior center Sarr adds 13.0 & 9.5. The bad news is, Brown is out with a leg injury. Sarr had 16 points and 12 rebounds vs Clemson (his seventh double-double of the season), while Childress added 14 points and six assists. Andrien White (8.8 points), a grad transfer from Charlotte, scored a season-high 22 points.
Virginia has won SEVEN straight in the series, including three straight at Wake Forest. The Cavaliers won 68-45 at home in last season's lone meeting. The Cavs are shooting just 40.4 percent on the season but 'getting well' vs Wake Forest seems HIGHLY-LIKELY! The Demon Deacons rank 13th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (108.8 points per 100 possessions), are last in forcing turnovers (13.3 percent) and 14th in two-point field-goal percentage (53%).Yes, UVA is allowing just 49.7 PPG (1st) but Wake is averaging 72.5 PPG. Wake games have averaged 147.9 PPG over its last nine, with those contests going 8-0-1 in favor of the Over. On average, Wake's last nine game totals are 4 'TDs' HIGHER than the opening total of this one. This one is Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
|
01-15-20 |
Virginia v. Florida State OVER 113.5 |
Top |
50-54 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on UVA/FSU Over at 7:00 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. However, the defending champs have lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2017, falling 60-53 at BC on Jan 7 and then 63-55 (OT) at home to Syracuse on Jan 11. The 11-4 Cavs fell out of the AP's latest top-25 poll on Monday and will look to avoid a three-game slide when they pay a visit to No. 9 Florida State. The Seminoles are 14-2and have won THREE of their last five meetings with Virginia, including a 69-59 win in last year’s ACC tournament semifinals. Florida State has won SEVEN straight games, most recently winning at then-No. 7 Louisville 78-65 on Jan 4 and following that with a second straight road win, 76-68 at Wake Forest on Jan 8.
The Cavaliers still lead the nation in scoring defense (48.7 PPG) and field goal percentage defense (34.6%), but are struggling on the offensive end while connecting on 39.9 percent of their shots from the floor. Virginia shot a season-low 31.3 percent from the floor against Syracuse and made only SEVEN of its season-high 31 three-point attempts (22.6 percent). 6-9 senior forward Mamadi Diakite leads the team in scoring (12.9), but has managed just 8.3 PPG over the past four. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.5 & 7.7) and 5-9 PG Clark (10.1-4.5-5.9). The 7-1 Huff (8.9 & 6.1) joins Diatka up front and this "Core 4" is basically Virginia's team this season.
Leonard Hamilton-coached teams are always known for playing excellent defense but his teams have shown more offensive 'punch' the last few seasons. That's continued in the 2019-20 season, as the Seminoles are holding opponents to 63.4 PPG, but are also scoring 76.4 PPG, The Seminoles wear down teams with their depth and balance on offense, as the top-four scorers produce between 8.8 and 12.3 PPG. Sophomore guard Devin Vassell has averaged 15 points the last three games and now leads the team at 12.3 PPG, just ahead of senior guard Trent Forrest (12.2-3.9-3.9), who notched his first double-double of the season against Wake Forest (14 points & 10 rebounds). Junior guard M.J. Walker combined to score 38 points in his last two games and is third on the team at 11.6 PPG. The 6-8 Williams (8.8 & 3.3) ranks fourth on the team in scoring, while the 6-9 Osborne (6.4 & 5.2) and guard Polite (6.1) are also regular contributors.
The Cavs are only averaging 55.7 PPG and as of Monday, the only Division I schools putting fewer points on the board were Maryland-Eastern Shore (54.3) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (52.1). That said, if UVA only reaches its average, this game should have little trouble 'flying' over. As noted, FSU is averaging 76.4 PPG and is 8-0 at home this season and has won its last four conference games by double-digit margins. The Seminoles lead the ACC in free throw shooting (75.9 percent), which is a bonus if the game is close. What's more, FSU last played Jan 8, giving the team a nice, but NOT too long, 'breather.' The Seminoles have played 16 games and just TWO, over/under numbers have closed at less than 130 points (opening total here was 111). I expect UVA to bring its "A" game in this one (remembering that loss to FSU in the ACC tourney, while looking to avoid a THIRD straight loss) and while I'm not convinced that will be good enough for a "W," I do expect this final to be in the 130s.
Good luck...Larry
|
01-07-20 |
Virginia v. Boston College OVER 113.5 |
Top |
53-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 52 m |
Show
|
My 10* CBB Total of the Week is on UVA/BC Over at 7:00 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA is currently 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th as it visits Boston College (8-6, 2-1) in Chestnut Hill, Ma. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). BC got off to a 4-1 start but then lost FOUR in a row. The Eagles followed with FOUR straight wins (including 73-72 at Notre Dame) but were dismantled by Duke 88-49 last Tuesday at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Virginia has barely been tested in ACC play thus far. The Cavaliers have held their first three conference opponents to an average of 40.0 PPG, while the average margin of victory has been 16.3 points. The most lopsided of those three conference victories was a 65-39 rout of Virginia Tech on Saturday, in which the Hokies shot 27.1 percent from the floor. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.3 & 7.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.8-4.4-5.9). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.2 & 6.8) and the 7-1 Huff (8.6 & 6.1).
BC really misses Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad transfer Derryck Thornton has been a big addition, averaging a team-high 13.3 PPG (3.1 RPG & 3.4 APG). Freshman guard Heath (12.0) joins him in the backcourt, while the 6-11 Popovic (11.8 & 5.9) is the team's third double digit scorer. The Hamilton brothers are 6-8 sophomore Jairus (9.1 & 4.1) and senior guard Jared (8.4), while the 6-8 Mitchell (7.7 & 8.7) is the team's leading rebounder.
I've already played two UVA games "over" and have won BOTH times. Here's why I believe I'll make it 3-0. UVA's Key is a unique talent and missed three games in late-Nov and early-Dec (DNP in the Purdue loss) and it took him a couple of games to work himself back into top form. He's been excellent in UVA's last two contests, combining to score 33 points on 15-23 (65.2%) shooting, while grabbing 17 rebounds. More notably for me is that the Cavs have scored 65 points in each of those contest (10 points more than the team had been averaging). BC just allowed 88 points to Duke and on the season, is allowing 67.1 PPG. No reason to think the Cavs can't get 70-plus points in this one. Sure, BC has to go against the Cavs defense (No. 1 in both allowing 46.7 PPG on 34.0% shooting) but BC can't possibly shoot as badly as the team did at Duke (see above). First off, this game is at home and note that BC has averaged 66.3 PPG on the season. I check of the team's mot recent games reveals BC playing FOUR straight unders but the finals of those games averaged 128.3 PPG, with no game finishing lower than 123 points. This Over/Under number is about two 'TD's' lower than that 128 PPG average. It's Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
|
12-30-19 |
CS Sacramento v. Montana OVER 124 |
Top |
50-52 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
My CBB 10* Total of the Week is on Sac St/Montana Over at 9:00 ET. It's a Big Sky matchup Monday night, as 7-3 Sacramento St visits Bozeman to take on 5-7 Montana. The Hornets have the better record but have opened 0-1 in league play, while the Grizzlies are 1-0 to open conference play. Sacramento St hasn't won more than 15 games in each of the previous four seasons, with last year's 15-16 record being the "high-mark" during that span. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are coming off a 26-9 season, its second straight 26-win season, each ending with an NCAA appearance. However, FOUR starters are gone from last yea's team, although the 6-5 Pridgett will be the best player on the floor tonight, as he averages 20.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG. The team's only other double-digit scorer is guard Manuel, who played last season after transferring from Ore St. The 6-4 redshirt senior averaged 8.7 PPG last season but is up to 12.9 this season. The Hornets' feature FIVE players scoring between 7.4 and 13.5 PPG, with 6-8 senior center Patton (13.5 & 5.1) leading the way, while the 6-7 Esposito adds 9.6 & 5.7. Sacramento St's strength is a defense allowing just 53.5 PPG (3rd) on 35.8% shooting (6th). OK, so why am I going over? All FIVE of Montana's wins this season have come at home in Dahlberg Arena (5-1), with the Grizzlies averaging 72.5 PPG with the final scores of the team's six home contests averaging 137.5 PPG. These schools met THREE times last season and the finals totaled, 153, 154 and 152. How about that for consistency? With this total in the mid-120s, I CAN'T resist Goin' Over. Are you with me? Good luck...Larry
|
12-22-19 |
South Carolina v. Virginia OVER 111.5 |
Top |
70-59 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on South Carolina/Virginia Over at 3:00 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). The now No. 9 ranked Cavs are off to a 9-1 start in defense of their title, with ethe team's lone loss coming at Purdue on Dec 4, 69-40 (Boilermakers got revenge for an Elite 8 loss last year to UVa). 7-4 South Carolina looks to knock off a second straight ACC opponent on the road when the Gamecocks face the Cavaliers on national television (ABC at 3:00 ET) in Charlottesville, Va. The Gamecocks made a Final 4 run of their own in 2017 but Martin's teams have won just 17 and 16 games the last two seasons.
South Carolina turned in a Cavalier-like defensive effort in last Sunday's 67-54 win at Clemson, holding the Tigers without a basket for the final 6 1/2 minutes of the game and to 28 percent shooting overall. The Gamecocks, who also forced in a season-high 21 turnovers against the Tigers, won their only other true road game on Dec 4 in an 84-80 victory at UMass. Sophomore A.J. Lawson (team-high 16.3 PPG) bounced back from a 10-point effort in a Dec 8 loss to Houston with 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting (4-of-7 beyond the arc), six rebounds and a season-high tying three steals. The only other South Carolina player in double digits on the season is the 6-11 Maik Kotsar (10.1 & 6.2) , who reached double figures for the SEVENTH time in his last eight outings with 11 points. With the recent return of guard Bryant from a knee injury (he's averaged 8.0 points in three games), the Gamecocks have five more players chipping in between 6.8 and 9.1 PPG.
Gone from last year's champs are are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). This season's team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (8.9 & 7.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.0-4.6-5.1). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.2 & 6.5) and the 7-1 Huff (9.5 & 6.8). The Cavaliers are scoring only 53.8 PPG (325th) on 39.5% shooting (329th), including 25.4% on threes (351st). However, the team's elite defense continues to make up for its lackluster offense. Uva is allowing a nation-low 44.2 PPG, while holding opponents to just 32.1% shooting (also ranks 1st).
South Carolina also plays excellent D, allowing 65.5 PPG (105th) on 37.9% shooting (21st). So why go over? The Gamecocks are averaging 70.6 PPG and while I don't expect them to match that average here, I don't expect a sub-55 point effort, either. Considering that Virginia has won 22 consecutive non-conference home games (dating back to Dec 3, 2016), I'm looking for a final in the mid-120s. I won my Dec Total of the Month on Va/Purdue Over back on Dec 4 and will 'go to the well' one more time by playing the Cavs over in this one (I won't do it often!).
Good luck...Larry
|
12-04-19 |
Virginia v. Purdue OVER 102 |
Top |
40-69 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
My CBB 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Virginia/Purdue Over at 7:15 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014).Purdue is coming off a 26-win season, after reaching the Elite 8. Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from last year's team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0), but he Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll. However, Purdue welcomes 7-0 Virginia (current No. 5 in the latest AP poll) to Mackey Arena with just a 4-3 record.
The Cavaliers have held seven straight opponents to 55 points or less, including a defensive masterpiece against Maine (46-26), which matched a program record for the fewest amount of points allowed. Virginia ranks first in both points allowed (40.3) and defensive FG percentage (28.8). Gone from last year's champs are are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.50, Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). This season' team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.3 & 8.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.6-4.7-5.0). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.9 & 7.3) and the 7-1 Huff (10.3 & 7.4).
Purdue clearly misses Edwards, although Proctor (14.6) and Hunter (10.3) make a pair of quality guards. The 7-3 Haarms (11.7 & 6.4) and the 6-9 Wheeler (6.4 & 7.1) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all seven opponents to 70 points or less to start the season (58.4 PPG on the season to ranks 18th nationally). Haarms went 6-of-6 from the floor en route to a team-high 16 points to go along with eight rebounds against Florida State, but it wasn't enough as the Boilermakers were doomed by a 33.9 percent shooting performance from the floor in the 63-60 OT loss. Aaron Wheeler and Evan Boudreaux (4.4 & 3.3) combined for six points on 2-of-18 shooting, including 0-for-8 from three-point range, as Purdue missed seven of its eight attempts from the floor and had five turnovers in overtime.
Virginia looks to extend its winning streak against Big Ten foes to 13 games and note that win No. 12 in that streak came against Purdue in last year's South Region Final, when the Cavs beat the Boilermakers 80-75 in OT. Purdue is playing with revenge plus since the school's last losing season (15-17 back in 2013-14), the Boilermakers have an impressive 80-9 record at Mackey Arena. Purdue will not have to deal with Virginia's multi-talented 6-8 Key, who underwent wrist surgery after suffering the injury in the championship game of the Air Force Reserve Tip-Off against Arizona State on Nov. 24. On a positive note for Virginia, the Cavs hope that sophomore swingman Kody Stattmann (5.3 PPG) can return after missing four games with an illness. Bottom line for me is that I can't resist Goin' Over this LOW over/under total, despite the defensive credentials of BOTH teams. Remember, last year's Elite 8 meeting was tied at 70-all heading into OT, which is almost six 'TDs' higher than the opening over/under number on tonight's contest (opened 101).
Good luck...Larry
|
11-17-19 |
UC Riverside v. Pacific OVER 116 |
Top |
51-58 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 42 m |
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My 10* Total of the Week is on UC Riverside/Pacific Over at 6:00 ET. UC-Riverside visits Stockton, Ca on Sunday, as the Highlanders take on the Pacific Tigers. Riverside went just 10-23 last season under first-time head coach David Patrick but has designs on being at least a .500 team in the current season by adapting a slower pace and controlling the clock. The 2-1 Highlanders are averaging only 57.7 PPG (ranks 337th of 351 Division I schools) but the team's "pace" has also allowed them to hold opponents to just 53.3 PPG (13th-best in the nation). Pacific went to three straight NCAA tourneys from 2004-06 and then made another trip in 2013. The following season, Pacific made it to the NIT semis but the basketball program has imploded, since. Beginning in the 2014-15 season, the Tigers have gone 12-19, 8-20, 11-22, 14-18 and 14-18. Pacific has been led the last three seasons by former Arizona All American and 15-year NBA player, Damon Stoudamire. Riverside is led by 7-1 center McCrae, who is leading the team in scoring (13.7) and rebounding (9.3). A trio of guards chip in 9.0-to-10.3 PPG, including 6-3 UTSA transfer Wilborn, who averages 8.7 RPG to go along with his 9.0 points. Stoudamire claims his team's depth will bring about a much better season for the Tigers. Pacific features NINE new players, including graduate transfers and freshman. The team's leading scorer is Ga Tech transfer Moore (11.6 & 3.6 APG) and the team's leading rebounder is returning 6-5 senior guard Tripp (8.0 & 6.8). The 6-9 McCray has recovered from a torn ACL and is back averaging 10.8 & 5.6 plus Finstuen, a JC transfer guard, is averaging 9.6. Here's the 'dope.' The opening Ov/Un number was 117 1/2 but I'm saying "no way" this game is staying under that number (I was able to go over 116). Stoudamire 'LOVES' his team's depth and after five games, ELEVEN Pacific players are logging 11-plus minutes per game. Yes, Pacific has already played FIVE games (no school has played more), while averaging 72.0 per. Just three of those games have featured pointspreads and O/U lines with all three going over (closing totals of 133, 123.5 and 132). This one is Goin' Over, as well. Good luck...Larry
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04-08-19 |
Texas Tech v. Virginia OVER 118 |
Top |
77-85 |
Win
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100 |
14 h 20 m |
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My CBB 10* Game of the Month is on Tex Tech/Va Over at 9:20 ET. Texas Tech (31-6) meets Virginia (34-3) in the NCAA Tournament championship game Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, as each school looks to win its first-ever title.. Virginia has limited opponents to a national-best 55.5 PPG on 38.4 percent shooting (5th), while Texas Tech allows 58.8 PPG (3rd) on 36.8 percent shooting (1st). I could go into a detailed analysis of thsisgame but I prefer to make it "short and sweet!" Virginia's 18 regular season ACC games finished with 120 points or more (opening total of this game was 119) in 12 of 18 contests. In UVa's seven postseason games (two ACC tourney games and five NCAA tourney ones), FIVE of the seven have exceeded 120 or more. As for Texas Tech, 17 of its 18 Big 12 games finished with 120 or more points. The Red Raiders were bounced in their first Big 12 tourney contest (79-74 by West Va) and in five NCAA games, the final has finished with 120 or more, three times. I'm just going say "O-V-E-R" and let the chips fall where the may. Good luck...Larry
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