03-27-24 |
Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-24 |
Nets v. Raptors UNDER 220 |
Top |
96-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-24 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 223.5 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29 of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-24 |
Heat v. 76ers UNDER 209 |
|
91-98 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the Philadelphia 76ers (562). THE SITUATION: Miami (37-30) has won two games in a row after their 104-101 victory at Detroit as a 5-point favorite yesterday. Philadelphia (37-30) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 109-98 victory against Charlotte as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after when playing without a day of rest — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing for the third time on the road in five days. On the road, Miami has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. The Sixers have also played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Jimmy Butler is questionable with a foot injury for the Heat — and this Philly team already without Joel Embiid may also be without Tobias Harris who is questionable with an ankle. Miami has won the last three meetings between these two teams after their 109-104 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on February 14th. 8* NBA Miami-Philadelphia ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the Philadelphia 76ers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-24 |
Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 |
|
122-116 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (537) and the Houston Rockets (538). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 113-106 loss at Milwaukee as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Houston (27-34) has won two games in a row after their 114-101 victory at home against San Antonio as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers allowed the Bucks to make 47.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Los Angeles has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook who injured his hand and may miss the rest of the regular season. This team will need his offensive spark coming off the bench. As it is, Los Angeles are making 47.9% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 110.8 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -6.4 PPG and a -1.2% drops from their season average. The Clippers stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Houston made 46.7% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting mark in their last 11 contests. But the Rockets have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win on their home court. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Houston is still only making 40.8% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 108.4 PPG — and those numbers represent a -4.4 PPG and a -4.7% drop from their season averages. They stay at home where they are limiting their guests to just 44.9% shooting including a 32.8% mark from behind the arc resulting in 109.5 PPG. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets want to avenge a 106-100 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers on November 17th last fall — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 10* NBA LA Clippers-Houston ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (537) and the Houston Rockets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Kings v. Clippers UNDER 239 |
Top |
123-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-24 |
Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 231.5 |
|
117-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (29-21) has won three games in a row after their 138-100 win against Toronto as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Los Angeles (34-15) has won four games in a row and nine of their last ten contests after their 149-144 win at Atlanta as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans made 51.0% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests — but they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last contest. New Orleans has also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by 20 or more points on their home court. They have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while that game finished Over the Total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Pelicans go back on the road where they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Los Angeles made 58.4% of their shots on Monday against the Hawks in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Clippers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 145 or more points in their last game. They did allow Atlanta to shoot 53.7% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten contests. That game concluded a long seven-game road trip — so this team may not have worked their hardest on the defensive end of the court against a Hawks team that does not play great defense. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where 225 or more combined points were scored. They return home to play their eighth game since January 26th — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. The Clippers have played 39 of their last 65 games Under the Total at home at Crypto.com Arena — and they have played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles held the Pelicans to an effective field goal percentage of 39.9% in a 111-95 win on the road which was New Orleans' worst offensive performance of the season — and now Zion Williamson is questionable to play tonight with a foot injury. The Clippers make 49.7% of their shots and lead the NBA with a 39.9% clip from behind the arc. The Pelicans have played 24 of their last 33 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make 46% or more of their shots — and they have played 18 of their last 22 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who are shooting 36% or better from 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-24 |
Kings v. Cavs UNDER 234.5 |
|
110-136 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-19) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 123-115 upset victory at Chicago as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cleveland (31-16) has won five games in a row as well as 13 of their last 14 contests with their 117-101 victory at San Antonio as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 50% of their shots on Saturday which came on the heels of shooting 56.7% from the field in their previous game at Indiana — but they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Sacramento has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after winning games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning their last two games away from home. In their last five games, the Kings have not allowed more than 115 points in four of those contests. They have held their last five opponents to 46.3% shooting resulting in 112.3 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -2.1% and -5.3 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento is playing at a slower pace on the road where they average 103.1 possessions per game — down -2.1 possessions from their season average. The Kings also play better defense on the road where they are posting an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.7 as opposed to their 118.0 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Sacramento has played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 31 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Cleveland raced out to a 67-45 halftime lead against the Spurs on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 20 or more points in their game. The Cavaliers have also played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing their two previous games Under the Total. Cleveland has not allowed more than 108 points in four of their last five games — and they have held those five opponents to 43.8% shooting resulting in 108.2 PPG. The defense certainly got a boost with the return of center Evan Mobley in their last three games. The Cavaliers have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.3 in their last 15 contests which is the best mark in the league during that span. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 132-120 upset loss at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog back on November 23rd. The Cavaliers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-24 |
Rockets v. Pistons OVER 225 |
|
112-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). THE SITUATION: Houston (18-18) has lost two games in a row after their 124-119 loss at Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Detroit (3-35) has lost six games in a row after their 130-108 loss at home against San Antonio as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Bulls to just 44.2% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Despite that performance, Houston’s play on that end of the court has collapsed since Dillon Brooks injured his abdomen on December 26th. The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in three of their last four games. Houston has played 25 of their last 39 road games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Detroit allowed the Spurs to make 52.1% of their shots which was actually the lowest opponent field goal percentage posted against them in their last three games. The Pistons have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing each of their last three opponents to make 47% or better from the field. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight games — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Detroit has not covered the point spread in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons look to avenge a 136-111 loss in Houston against the Rockets on January 1st — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-23 |
Mavs v. Suns OVER 237.5 |
Top |
128-114 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-23 |
Lakers v. Spurs OVER 233.5 |
Top |
115-129 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-23 |
Nuggets v. Cavs UNDER 215.5 |
|
109-121 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 115-110 upset loss at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (6-6) has won two games in a row after their 108-100 win at home against Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Pelicans to nail 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have played four straight Unders, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders this season — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Denver is scoring only 107.8 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -6.3 PPG below their season average. They are holding their home hosts to just 106.2 PPG. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. After making 56.0% of their shots at Portland on Wednesday, the Cavaliers shot 51.2% from the field against the Pistons. The Cavs have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. They have also played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have played 4 of their 5 home games Under the Total this season. Their 106.4 PPG scoring average at home is -3.9 PPG below their season average — and they are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG at home which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. They have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are missing key scorers with Jamal Murray out with a hamstring injury for the Nuggets and Donovan Mitchell out with a hamstring injury for Cleveland. The Cavs’ Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury. Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-23 |
Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 |
|
100-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-3) has won six games in a row after their 107-104 upset victory against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-7) has lost six games in a row after their 111-108 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Nuggets to 46.2% shooting which was the opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games — and Denver’s 104 points were the most points they allowed in that five-game stretch. First-year head coach Ime Udoka has this young team playing great defense. They added Dillon Brooks via free agency who made the All-Defensive second team for Memphis last year. They also added Fred VanVleet in free agency who provides the team veteran leadership with an NBA championship. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to 43.4% shooting which has resulted in only 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Houston has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. They also have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by six points were less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. The Rockets are scoring 111.0 PPG this season — but their scoring drops by -7.0 PPG by averaging just 104.0 PPG when on the road. Los Angeles continues to struggle as they attempt to incorporate James Harden into their rotation. He is working off some rust after not playing in the preseason. They rank 29th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since acquiring him from Philadelphia. With Harden on the court, they are playing at a slower pace to accommodate his tendency to dribble the ball in isolation against a defender before deciding to launch a jumper or drive the lane — they rank 26th in pace with him. The Clippers are making just 44.7% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 105.0 PPG. But after Los Angeles allowed the Nuggets to make 53.4% of their shots on Tuesday, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season, they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 43.6% shooting and just 100.2 PPG. They have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-23 |
Magic v. Nets UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
104-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). THE SITUATION: Orlando (5-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 112-97 upset victory at home against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (5-5) has won two of their last three games after their 102-94 win against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic are playing outstanding defense after holding the Bucks to just 97 points. After ranking sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 57 games last season, they currently rank tied for second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.8. With two 6’10 big men in their starting rotation Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has size that makes it difficult on their opponents. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Magic have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Orlando only ranks 21st in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this roster probably needing more scoring. Injuries will not help their cause to night with point guard Markelle Fultz and forward Wendall Carter, Jr. out tonight — and shooting guard Gary Harris is questionable with a groin injury. He is the team’s best shooter who nailed 43% of his shots from behind the arc last year. The Magic are making only 45.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in only 108.2 Points-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Nets are beginning to play better defense as they have held their last three opponents to no higher than a 43.6% shooting percentage after holding the Wizards to 37.5% shooting. Not having center Nic Claxton early on held the play of their defense back. In the two games he has played, the Nets are allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Cam Johnson is another good defender for them who missed seven games in a row before getting back on the court for their last two contests. Brooklyn has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. And while the Nets have played three straight Unders, they have then played 18 of their las 27 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Brooklyn will miss Cam Thomas tonight who is out with a left ankle injury. He is scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench but has missed the last two games. Ben Simmons will also miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury — and while he does not score many points, he contributes with assists and rebounds on the offensive end of the court. In their last five games, they are making only 42.9% of their shots which is generating only 109.6 PPG — but they are holding their last five opponents to 43.4 shooting. The Nets have played 23 of their last 32 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when the game is at the Barclays Center. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-23 |
Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 216 |
Top |
101-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 134-116 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 114-109 upset loss against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their worst defensive game of the season after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage against them all season. New Orleans has become a very good defensive team under head coach Willie Green — they ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. That loss to the defending NBA champions came on the heels of a 123-105 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two in a row by ten or more points. The Pelicans are dealing with several injuries to begin the season — and it gets even worse tonight. C.J. McCollum is dealing with a collapsed lung so he will not take the court. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sore right leg. And, of course, Zion Williamson is taking the game off for personal reasons — leaving Brandon Ingram as the primary scorer against the Timberwolves. New Orleans is a potent scoring team when teams have to address both Williamson and Ingram on the court together — especially with McCollum running the point. But this team lacks outside shooting to open up space for players to drive the lane — the torn meniscus injury of Trey Murphy III has impacted the efficiency of their offense. The Pelicans ranks tied for 22nd place with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of just 108.4 this season. They did make 50% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them this season — but that was with Williamson on the court. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 43 of their last 69 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota followed up their handing Denver their first loss of the season by doing the same thing to the Celtics on Monday in a game where they nailed 51.8% of their shots — their second-best shooting effort of the season. The Timberwolves have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And while that game with the Nuggets finished Over the Total, they have then played 18 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Minnesota is playing outstanding defense — they lead the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 100.7. After holding the explosive Denver scoring attack to just 39.1% of their shots, the Timberwolves have limited five of their six opponents to no higher than 40.2% shooting. The great potential of this team on the defensive end of the court was demonstrated last year despite Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 29 games due to injury. The T-Wolves would have led the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency if the numbers they generated with Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Towns on the court together were extended to the entire season. On their home court, Minnesota has held their opponents to 39.3% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 95.7 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when hosting the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-23 |
Warriors v. Pistons OVER 223.5 |
|
120-109 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Golden State (5-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-104 loss at Cleveland as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 120-106 loss to Phoenix as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors only made 36.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. With Draymond Green questionable to play with an ankle injury, they may be without their best defensive player. But this team should shoot much better tonight — they are making 48.0% of their shots and 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc in their five games on the road which is translating into 120.6 Points-Per-Game. Golden State has played 14 of their last 19 games when playing on the road for the second time in two days. This is their third game on the road since Friday — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing on the road for the third time in four days. Additionally, they have played 32 of their last 50 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total in the first half of the season. The Warriors have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Detroit got whistled for 23 fouls against the Suns on Saturday while only drawing 13 personal fouls — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after committing ten or more personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Pistons have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. And in their last 47 games when on a four-game losing streak, they have played 31 of these games Over the Total. After starting the season playing better defense than last year under first-year head coach Monty Williams, they have since taken a step back. In their last five games, Detroit is allowing 116.2 PPG on 48.0% shooting. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Pistons are dealing with some injuries with Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Isaiah Livers that have kept them off the court this season — and now Joe Harris is out tonight, Alec Burks is doubtful, and Jadey Ivey is questionable with an illness. Detroit’s depth will be challenged tonight — and that will not help their defensive effort. But with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duran, the Pistons will score their share of points. They have scored 110.6 PPG in their last five games despite these injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 |
|
89-94 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have had an underrated defense for much of the season — and they are demonstrating this aspect of their game now after holding the Heat to just 42.4% shooting which has resulted in 98.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami has not shot better than 32% from behind the arc in three of the four games in the NBA Finals. Denver has made at least 48.2% of their shots in five straight games since only making 43.8% of their shots in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have also played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Denver returns home to Bell Arena where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by ten or more points at home.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
109-94 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-04-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 214.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-01-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 218.5 |
|
93-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets will be ready and rested for this opening contest with the benefit of nine full days of rest after closing out their series with the Lakers. Denver will likely push the pace to challenge a Heat team that only had two full days of rest before tonight’s game. As it is, the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.0 in the postseason. And in their last two games against Miami in the regular season, they posted Adjusted Offensive Efficiency marks of 123 and 124 despite Nikola Jokic playing only 70 of the 96 minutes in those two games. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a dilemma regarding how to defend Jokic: does he deploy Bam Adebayo against him and risk his big man getting into foul trouble or does he use bench players like Cody Zeller, Kevin Love (oy), or Haywood Highsmith to attempt to guard him and leave Adebayo as a rim protector? It may take Spoelstra a game to find the best answer to the Jokic problem. And while Miami likes to deploy zone defenses, Jokic crushes zone defenses with his one-on-one skills along with passing skills. They have played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami played their best defensive game in their last seven games by holding the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting on Monday. The Heat have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. Miami has also played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Denver. The Nuggets swept both regular-season games against the Heat this season — and Miami has played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-23 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
103-84 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
104-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-25-23 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 |
|
97-110 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Celtics to make 51.2% of their shots. To be fair to Miami, Boston did finally overachieve with their shooting relative to league expectations. Given the shot quality statistics, the Celtics would have typically scored 107 points — so they exceeded that baseline by nine points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than 100 points. They have also played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Point guard Gabe Vincent has been ruled out for tonight’s game after he twisted his ankle in Tuesday’s game. Miami will miss his scoring as he has averaged 17.5 Points-Per-Game in this series. Look for head coach Erik Spoelstra to slow things down tonight and make it a Jimmy Butler game where perhaps they can steal yet another playoff game in the fourth quarter. If that Spoelstra plan fails, then the Heat will probably call off the proverbial dogs and conserve their energies for Game Six back at home — and that will help our Under play (in the end). Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout games. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. The Celtics have also played 8 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* NBA Miami-Boston TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
116-99 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-23 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
113-111 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214.5 |
|
102-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin in the final 12 minutes to give that game away. Boston has dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series — and when they have put themselves in similar predicaments, they usually respond with increased focus and intensity on the defensive end of the court. After losing Game Five at home to Philadelphia to trail by a 3-2 margin in that series, they held the 76ers to 87.0 Points-Per-Game in Games Six and Seven of that series to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home. Miami has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Heat have excelled on the defensive end of the court when playing at home in the postseason. They have held their five opponents to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 98.4 Points-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-23 |
Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 222.5 |
|
119-108 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Los Angeles Lakers (540) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (63-32) has won four straight games after their 108-103 victory at home as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games while falling behind by an 0-2 margin in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well.
|
05-18-23 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 |
|
103-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-32) outlasted the Lakers in a high-scoring opening game with their 132-126 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (52-44) has now lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After the high-scoring Game One which saw 258 combined points, the books have bumped up the total into the high-220s for Game Two after Tuesday’s game closed in the 223 range. The Nuggets did stun the Lakers by making 54.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 points in their last game. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Denver made 53.7% of their shots en route to 125 points in their closeout Game Six against Phoenix — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Denver played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Lakers to make 54.8% of their shots. The Nuggets stay at home for Game Two where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Los Angeles’ 54.8% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 18 contests. And by allowing Denver to nail 54.9% of their shots, the Lakers played their worst defensive game in their last 48 contests. Head coach Marvin Ham did make an adjustment in the second half by moving Anthony Davis off from defending Nikola Jokic with Rui Hamichura coming off the bench to guard the Joker. After giving up 72 points in the first half, they held the Nuggets to just 60 points in the second half including a mere 24 points in the final quarter. They posted an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number of 103.0 in the second half with Hachimura on the court. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. The Lakers got outrebounded by a 47 to 30 margin in Game One — and they have played all 5 of their games Under the Total this season after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their previous game. And while the Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 16 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Denver came out with tons of adrenaline and pushed the pace that was at a blistering 102 possessions per 48-minute rate. Things slowed down in the second half with a pace of 93 possessions per 48 minutes. Look for tonight’s game to resemble that second-half pace with the Nuggets slowing down a bit while adjusting to Davis protecting the rim rather than defending Jokic. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-23 |
Heat v. Celtics OVER 210 |
|
123-116 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat comes off a low-scoring game where they only made 40.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. And by holding the Knicks to 38.0% shooting, they have played their best defensive effort in their last three games. Miami has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have paled 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boston made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Celtics did hold the 76ers to 36.1% and 37.3% field goal percentage in the final two games of that series — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 39% shooting in two straight games. Boston has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Boston Over the Total. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-14-23 |
76ers v. Celtics UNDER 203 |
Top |
88-112 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-23 |
Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 223.5 |
Top |
101-122 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-23 |
Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 213 |
|
95-86 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Facing the prospects of elimination, they should play harder on defense tonight. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 18 of their last 27 Game Sixes in a playoff series Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. But they have not shot better than 46.2% in five of their last nine contests. The 76ers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the playoffs when leading in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-23 |
Heat v. Knicks OVER 209 |
|
103-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-101 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (52-39) has lost the last two games and now looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a point spread victory. Miami has also played a decisive 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. New York has played 28 of their last 46 games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 straight Overs when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when up 3-1 in a playoff series. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/ U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-09-23 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
102-118 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 129-124 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns head coach Monty Williams has his team playing at a faster pace with Chris Paul sidelined with his groin injury. Paul tends to slow things down running the point in the half-court offense. With Devin Booker running the show, Phoenix is racing up and down the court with Booker averaging 36.8 Points-Per-Game in this series. Williams is also giving more minutes to T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross who are scorers but liabilities on defense. The result on Sunday was a scoring fest with 253 combined points scored. But despite these tactical adjustments, the books have remained steady with the Total remaining in the 227-228 range while letting the market make big decisions on where this series will go. Well, the market loves the Over tonight — but I think Game Five is the time to embrace our contrarian spirits and play the Under. Booker is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 38 contests. Phoenix should play better on defense — and Williams might be compelled to rely on players like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie instead of Warren, Ross, or Landry Shamet (who nailed five shots from behind the arc in Game Four) thinking his team can’t outrun and outgun Denver in their own building. The Suns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home. They have also played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver had their best shooting game in their last six contests by making 56.2% of their shots — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better in their last game. Head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots — and they have also played a decisive 44 of their last 65 games at home Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. While the Nuggets ranked 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — and they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. And while the last two games in this series have finished Over the Total, Denver has paled 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-23 |
Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228.5 |
|
101-104 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-43) has lost three of their last five games after their 127-97 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (50-42) has won five of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors played their worst defensive game in their last 20 contests by allowing the Lakers to make 52.5% of their shots. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lakers had their best shooting effort in this series by making 52.5% of their shots — and they were even more impressive behind the arc by nailing 15 of their 31 shots (48%) from 3-point land. But Los Angeles only makes 34.3% of their shots from behind the arc so they are not likely to replicate that effort. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Lakers have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in 14 days.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles owned a 37-17 advantage in free throw attempts in Game Three. They have played 28 of their last 41 games at home Under the Total after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent in their last game. Golden State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their opponent took 20 or more shots from the charity stripe. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-23 |
Knicks v. Heat OVER 206 |
Top |
101-109 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this game should finish Over the Total. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting — and that was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Realistically, the Knicks cannot expect to do much better than that on the defensive end of the court — and Miami still scored 105 points. New York has not covered the point spread in any of the three games in this series — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Miami’s 38.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting performance in their last 43 games. They only made 7 of their 32 shots (21.9%) from behind the arc. After a subpar regular season in their 3-point shooting, the Heat regained their shooting touch from last season as they are nailing 39.2% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs, the second-best mark of all teams in the postseason. Jimmy Butler returned to the court and scored 26 points — so while he is listed as questionable again tonight, that seems to be merely a formality. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court — so his presence helps the Over. Miami has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Heat have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Miami Over the Total despite Game Three finishing Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-23 |
Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 |
|
124-129 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Phoenix Suns (540) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) was on a three-game winning streak before their 121-114 loss on the road to the Suns as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Phoenix (50-40) won their first game in this series while earning their fifth victory in their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite Friday’s game going Over the Total, the Under is still 9-4-2 in the Nuggets’ last 15 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Denver is not as efficient with their shooting when playing away from home. They posted an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 50% on the road in Game Three which was far below their 55% eFG in the playoffs this postseason. And while the Suns are making 47.0% of their shots this season, the Nuggets have played 37 of their last 64 games Under the Total against teams making 46% or more of their shots. Getting Game Three four days after Game Two was a big break for Kevin Durant and Devin Booker who have been playing more than 40 minutes per game in the postseason. They both had monster games on Friday for the Suns. Booker scored 47 points. Durant added 39 points. But Booker played 41:37 minutes and Durant was on the floor for 43:31 minutes. Now this duo only has a day of rest — and Paul remains out with his groin injury. The problem Phoenix has is that they lack a Plan B offensive strategy if Booker and Durant are not on fire. Their supporting cast made only 16 of 39 shots (41%) from the field and nailed only 3 of 15 (20%) shots from behind the arc. The Suns have played 11 of their last 18 games at home when favored by up to six points. They have also played 5 of their last seven Game Fours in a playoff series Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 8* NBA Denver-Phoenix TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Phoenix Suns (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-02-23 |
Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 227.5 |
|
117-112 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-41) has won three of their last four games after their 128-125 win against Memphis in Game Six of their opening-round series on Friday. Golden State (48-41) has won four of their last five games after their 120-100 upset win at Sacramento in the seventh game of that series on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers nailed 53.8% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 contests — so they are likely to see some regression. And while they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Grizzlies to 30.2% shooting, their commitment to defense should continue in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles lead the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since the trade deadline when they reshuffled their team. The Lakers have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points at home — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 30 or more points. They have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest — and they have played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Golden State has played 22 of their last 30 games at home Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. The Warriors return home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Lakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Semifinals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-23 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
120-100 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings played one of their best defensive games of the season by holding the Warriors under 100 points. They limited Golden State to just 37.2% shooting which was a season-low for the reigning NBA champions. Head coach Mike Brown will implore his young team to maintain that type of effort on the defensive end of the court in this Game Seven. But Sacramento only made 40.4% of their shots on Friday in that elimination game — and I do not expect a significant improvement on that mark in this Game Seven with the pressure on this team that lacks deep playoff experience. As it is, the Kings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Sacramento has also played 5 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 11 games after losing to a Pacific Division rival, they have played their next 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home by double-digits. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams in Sacramento. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-23 |
Heat v. Knicks OVER 207.5 |
|
108-101 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (501) and the New York Knicks (502) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (49-40) has pulled off three straight upset victories to defeat the Bucks in five games after their 128-126 victory as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. New York (51-36) eliminated the Cavaliers in five games after upsetting them in Cleveland as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat upset the Bucks in Game Five despite only making 45.5% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Heat have also played 4 straight Overs when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 4 straight Overs after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 6 straight Overs. New York shot 43.5% from the field on Wednesday to close out that series despite it being the worst shooting effort in their last three contests. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 31 home games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: New York won three of the four games between these teams in the regular season after a 101-92 victory at home as a 5-point favorite on March 29th. Miami has played 34 of their last 56 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games against each other Over the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (501) and the New York Knicks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-23 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 |
|
107-125 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-30) has won four games in a row after their 136-130 win against the Los Angeles Clippers that ended that series in five games. Denver (57-30) has won five of their last six games after their 112-109 victory against Minnesota as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday that completed that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Denver should tighten things up tonight on the defensive end of the court. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 33 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Nuggets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And they have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Phoenix made 54.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Suns certainly took advantage of a Clippers team that was without their best two defenders, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, for most of that series. Phoenix has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 265 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Denver hosts the opening two games of this series have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. 8* NBA Phoenix-Denver TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-28-23 |
Kings v. Warriors UNDER 236.5 |
|
118-99 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-37) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-116 loss at home to the Warriors on Wednesday. Golden State (47-40) has won six of their last eight games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sacramento allowed the Warriors to nail 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Kings should work harder on defense in this potential elimination game tonight. They have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They hit the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. They have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Golden State had their best shooting effort from the floor with their 52.1% mark in their last five games on Wednesday. The Warriors return home where the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total again teams with a winning record — and Sacramento has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-23 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 232.5 |
|
128-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (537) and the Atlanta Hawks (538) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (60-27) has lost for the second time in the last three games in this series with their 119-117 upset loss as a 13-point underdog at home to the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-44) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin as they hope to stave off elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston was cruising with a 111-99 lead with just 5:19 minutes left in the fourth quarter before complacency might have set in — and Atlanta’s Trae Young got scorching hot with his shooting to steal the game away for the Hawks. The Celtics need to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing Atlanta to average 115.2 Points-Per-Game in this series. Boston allows 111.6 PPG this season — and they rank second in the NBA in the regular season in defending inside the arc. The Hawks took the second most shots from midrange in the regular season while taking the fewest shots from behind the arc per possession. Their 35.3% shooting percentage from 3-point range, ranked 24th in the league. But head coach Quin Snyder has Atlanta shooting many more 3s in this series — and they nailed 19 of their 41 shots (46%) from behind the arc on Tuesday. The Hawks are due for regression as they only make 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. Speaking of regression, while the last three games have flown Over the Total with at least 236 combined points scored, Boston has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playin three or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. They have also played 19 of their last 29 games in the playoffs Under the Total. The Hawks pulled out Game Five despite Dejounte Murray being suspended for that game after bumping a referee — but there is a legitimate question regarding whether or not the Hawks are a better team without Murray. The offense seems to flow better when Young is the point guard and primary scorer. When Young and Murray are playing together on the court, Atlanta is getting outscored by -7.7 points per 100 possessions in this series. But when Young is on the court without Murray in this series, the Hawks are outscoring the Celtics by +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (537) and the Atlanta Hawks (538) Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-23 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 235 |
|
123-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Sacramento Kings (534) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 126-125 win at home against the Grizzlies as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Memphis (50-36) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 50.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. But they also allowed the Grizzlies to nail 47.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Warriors have played 41 of their last 63 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. And in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 17-6-1. Sacramento enjoyed their best shooting mark with that 47.1% clip in their last seven contests. But they played their worst defensive game in their last four games with the Warriors shooting 50.0% from the field. The Kings have played 40 of their last 64 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Sacramento Kings (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-23 |
Clippers v. Suns OVER 224.5 |
|
130-136 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Phoenix Suns (524) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-41) will attempt to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four of this series in a 112-100 loss at home to the Suns on Saturday. Phoenix (48-38) has won the last three games in this series to take a 3-1 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 43.5% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting mark in their last eight games. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total — and the Over is 25-9-2 in their last 36 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Phoenix played their best defensive game in their last seven contests by holding the Clippers to 43.5% shooting. The Sunday have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They return home where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games — and the Over is 17-8-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road when avenging a loss to their opponent. The Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams when they are playing in Phoenix. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Phoenix Suns (524). Best of luck of run — Frank.
|
04-23-23 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 |
|
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (56-29) has won four games in a row after their 120-111 victory on the road against the Timberwolves as a 2-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (43-44) has lost four of their last five games as they look to stave off elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots in Game Two of this series on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. Rather than receiving a visit from the Regression Gods, Denver backed that up by making 57.1% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting performance in their last 22 contests. The Nuggets are a great offensive team — but they are overachieving in this series. Michael Porter, Jr. is making 50% of his shots from 3-point range which is simply not sustainable. Denver has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. Denver has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 28 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. Minnesota has played 16 of their last 20 games at home Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The T-Wolves stay at home where the Under has an 11-5-1 record in their last 17 games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-23 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 223 |
Top |
120-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row after their 122-113 victory at home against the Timberwolves as an 8.5-point favorite in Game Two on Wednesday. Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. And while they allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots, that was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. The Nuggets held Minnesota to no more than 27 points in three of the four quarters in Game Two after limiting them to 80 points in Game One — and that was on the heels of only giving up 95 points to the up-tempo Sacramento team (albeit with their backups playing) in the final game of the regular season. Denver has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Nuggets took a 64-49 lead at halftime on Wednesday — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding a halftime lead of 15 or more points. Denver goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The bigger problem for this team is that there can experience scoring lulls on the other end of the court. They exploded for 40 points in the third quarter on Wednesday but only scored 73 points for the rest of the game. They have scored 107 or fewer points in four of their last eight games including those 80 points in Game One. Aaron Gordon is doing an outstanding job in slowing down Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has scored only 21 combined points in this series on 8 of 27 shooting. He has committed nine turnovers and gotten to the free throws line only four times. Game Two flew Over the 222.5-point total — but Minnesota has played 16 of their last 19 home games Uner the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where the Under has an 11-4-1 record in their last 16 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the T-Wolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-23 |
76ers v. Nets UNDER 210 |
|
102-97 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (547) and the Brooklyn Nets (548) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-28) has won four games in a row with their 96-84 win at home against the Nets as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Brooklyn (45-39) has lost three games in a row as they trailing this series by a 0-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only shot 37.5% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. While I often consider these outlier shooting performances to be due for regression, in this instance it may the canary in the coal mine regarding the problems Brooklyn will have on that end of the court. Since the All-Star Break, the Nets rank 24th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with the team struggling to generate consistent points after trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. The Nets return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Philadelphia only made 45.0% of their shots in Game Two with the Nets playing hard on defense — that was the Sixers’ worst shooting effort in their last ten games. The 76ers have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Division rival in their previous game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (547) and the Brooklyn Nets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-18-23 |
Clippers v. Suns OVER 226.5 |
|
109-123 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (535) and the Phoenix Suns (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-38) won for the fourth straight time on Sunday with their 115-110 upset win on the road against the Suns as a 7.5-point underdog. Phoenix (45-38) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers pulled off the upset despite making only 44.1% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay on the road where the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games on the road — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Clippers have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. By holding Los Angeles to 44.1% shooting, the Suns played their best defensive game in their last four contests. The Over is 5-0-1 in Phoenix’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss. The Over is also 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (535) and the Phoenix Suns (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-23 |
Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 225 |
|
80-109 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-41) has won four of their last five games after their 120-95 victory against Oklahoma City as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday in the Play-In Tournament. Denver (53-29) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 109-95 upset win against Sacramento as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday to conclude their regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 5 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, Minnesota has played 4 of these games Under the Total. Denver has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They host this game where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a long record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their four regular season games with the Nuggets winning the most recent meeting in a 146-112 victory on February 7th. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road of 30 or more points. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-12-23 |
Thunder v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 |
|
123-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) and the New Orleans Pelicans (568) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (40-42) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 115-100 victory against Memphis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (42-40) ended the regular season with a 113-108 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Minnesota to play for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs — and the loser has their season end tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans boasts the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the league in their last 12 games. Overall, the Pelicans rank sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with head coach Willie Green focusing on that end of the court with his group once again learning to live life without a healthy Zion Williamson who has missed much of the season again due to injuries. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They earned the right to host this game having played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. We should not read too much into the Thunder’s victory on Sunday against a Grizzlies team locked into the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs — but they did make 50% of their shots which was the best shooting in their last six games. Oklahoma City has a 16-25 record on the road while scoring -3.4 fewer Points-Per-Game and making 45.0% of their shots as opposed to their 46.6% shooting percentage for the season. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won three of the four meetings between these two teams but lost the last encounter between these squads in a 110-96 upset loss as a 2-point home favorite on March 11th. The Pelicans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by ten or more points. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) and the New Orleans Pelicans (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-12-23 |
Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 214.5 |
|
109-105 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (565) and the Toronto Raptors (566) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chicago (40-42) enters the NBA postseason coming off a 103-81 win against Detroit as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Toronto (41-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-105 win against Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Miami to play the Heat to claim the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs on Friday — and the loser ends their season tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has been a much better team since acquiring Patrick Beverley at the trade deadline. The Bulls rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since adding the gritty perimeter defender. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days. Additionally, Chicago has also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total with the number in the 210 to the 219.5-point range. The Under is also 34-16-1 in the Bulls’ last 51 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Toronto made 50.5% of their shots in their win against the Bucks on Sunday — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Adding center Jakob Poetl significantly improved the play of this team on defense since it provided them with a rim protector they were lacking. With Poelt on the court, Toronto gives up -5.6 points per 100 possessions. They have played 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set from 210 to 219.5. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has played 5 straight games in the playoffs Under the Total. 8* NBA Chicago-Toronto ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (565) and the Toronto Raptors (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-11-23 |
Wolves v. Lakers OVER 228.5 |
|
102-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (563) and the Los Angeles Lakers (564). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (42-40) has won three games in a row — and seven of their last ten contests — after their 113-108 victory against New Orleans as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (43-39) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after a 128-117 win against Utah as a 17-point favorite on Sunday to close out their regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves made 47.6% of their shots on Sunday against the Pelicans which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. Now they will have to play this game without their two best defensive players in Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. Gobert was suspended for this game after throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson in that game against New Orleans. McDaniels later injured his hand by taking out his frustrations by punching a wall. The absence of these two players means the T-Wolves will have to play small ball — so look for them to play fast and try to outrun this older Lakers team. They have played 26 of their last 41 road games Over the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles shot 48.5% from the field on Sunday against the Jazz which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Lakers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 31st with the Lakers winning by a 123-111 scorer as a 2.5-point favorite — and the Timberwolves have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (563) and the Los Angeles Lakers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-11-23 |
Hawks v. Heat OVER 226.5 |
|
116-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Miami Heat (562). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (41-41) enters the postseason having lost two games in a row after their 120-114 loss at Boston as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (44-38) has won four of their last five games after their 123-110 win against Orlando as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami has been a disappointment this season by making only 34.4% of their 3-pointers. But in their last five games, they are nailing 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc which has helped them post an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 123.4. The Heat’s rediscovery of their shooting touch this month — just in time for the playoffs. Miami has played 5 straight Overs after winning their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point-spread victory. The Heat get to host this game where they have played 7 straight Overs — and they have played 5 straight Overs at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Miami’s defense has taken a step back lately. After ranking fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they have fallen to 22nd in that metric since the All-Star break. They did hold the Magic to 42.2% shooting but that was the best defensive effort in their last 26 games in that meaningless contest to end the regular season. Atlanta ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with a 115.4 mark — and that number worsens to 117.4 when on the road. In their last 15 games, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency has been even worse at 118.5, the sixth-worst mark in the league during that stretch. But this team can score — they have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.1 in their last 15 games. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Hawks’ last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Atlanta has also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against Southeast Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These teams last played on March 6th with the Heat winning at home by a 130-128 score to register their second straight victory against the Hawks. Atlanta has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Atlanta-Miami TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Miami Heat (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-09-23 |
Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 226.5 |
|
108-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
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At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (557) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (558). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (42-39) has won four of their last five games after their 113-105 victory against New York as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (41-40) has won two in a row with their 151-131 victory at San Antonio as a 15.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The winner of this game earns the eighth seed in the Play-In Tournament next week (with the Timberwolves holding the tie-breaker if they get the win) — so this is a meaningful game for both teams. The playoff-like atmosphere should ensure the intensity is high on defense for both teams. The Pelicans made 53.2% of their shots against the Knicks which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. New Orleans has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Pelicans are an outstanding defensive team that ranks sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank second in that category in their last ten games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans has also played 26 of their last 37 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Minnesota nailed 55.4% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. They also let San Antonio make 52.6% of their shots in the blowout win which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. None of the Timberwolves players logged in more than 29 minutes — so this should be a group with plenty of energy to play hard on the defensive end of the court. Minnesota ranks 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have a slew of capable wing defenders who can give C.J. McCollum trouble in his attempts to lead the Pelicans’ offense. The Timberwolves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home after playing an Over in their last game. The Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on their home court. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 111-102 upset loss at home to the T-Wolves as a 3-point favorite on January 25th — and they have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under Toal when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (557) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-06-23 |
Thunder v. Jazz OVER 239 |
|
114-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (579) and the Utah Jazz (580). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (38-42) has lost three games in a row — and six of their last eight games — after their 136-125 loss at Golden State as an 8-point underdog on Tuesday. Utah (36-43) has lost three games in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — after a 135-133 loss in overtime against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunder allowed the Warriors to make 49.5% of their shots — and that was still the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Oklahoma City has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two games in a row. The Over is 7-3-1 in Utah’s last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Jazz have also played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, Utah has played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has won their last two games against the Jazz after their 129-119 victory at home against them on March 5th. The Thunder have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (579) and the Utah Jazz (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-04-23 |
Blazers v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5 |
|
109-119 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (549) and the Memphis Grizzlies (550). THE SITUATION: Portland (33-45) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 107-105 upset win at Minnesota as a 19-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (49-29) has lost two of their last three games after their 128-107 loss at Chicago as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers are in full-tank mode now at this point of the season. Damian Lillard is out the season with a calf injury — and starters like Anfernee Simmons, Jusuf Nurkic, and Jerami Grant are not playing tonight. Portland has another handful of players listed as questionable as they embrace the soft tanking approach for the rest of the season. The players at rookie head coach Chauncey Billups’ disposal tonight are playing for jobs in the league — so they will work hard on the defensive end of the court. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-2 in the Trail Blazers last 28 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Memphis has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Grizzlies have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Memphis ranks second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so hosting this Blazers team presents an importunity to get back to playing good defense after the Bulls made 53.2% of their shots against them. The Grizzlies have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.2% when playing at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis looks to avenge a 122-112 upset loss at home to the Trail Blazers as a 5.5-point underdog on February 1st. The Grizzlies have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (549) and the Memphis Grizzlies (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-04-23 |
Heat v. Pistons UNDER 218.5 |
|
118-105 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (531) and the Detroit Pistons (532). THE SITUATION: Miami (41-37) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 129-1122 win against Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Detroit (16-62) has lost nine games in a row after their 128-102 loss at Orlando as an 11-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons allowed the Magic to make 57.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams winning no more than 40% of their games on the road. The Pistons have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But they also played their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Mavericks to nail 61.0% of their shots. The Heat go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on their home court. Miami has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when these two teams are playing in Detroit. 8* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (531) and the Detroit Pistons (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-31-23 |
Jazz v. Celtics OVER 228.5 |
|
114-122 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). THE SITUATION: Utah (36-40) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 128-117 victory at San Antonio as a 2.5-point favorite. Boston (53-24) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 140-99 upset victory at Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz have played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where the Over is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boston held the Bucks to just 37.8% shooting which was the second-best defensive effort in their last ten games — and the third-best defensive performance in their last 28 contests. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Celtics’ last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They return home where they have paled 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-23 |
Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 |
|
107-88 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Denver Nuggets (552). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-38) was on a five-game winning streak before their 120-109 loss at Golden State as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver (51-24) has won four games in a row with their 116-111 victory against Philadelphia as a 7-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans allowed the Warriors to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They complete their four-game road trip tonight having played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Denver has shot at least 50% from the field for the eighth straight game by nailing 50.6% of their shots against the 76ers — but they have played 34 of their last 52 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. The Nuggets have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Nuggets complete their three-game home stand tonight having played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Nikola Jokic is questionable tonight with a calf injury — and Denver scores -22.8 fewer points per 100 possessions this season when he is not on the court. These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Denver. 8* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (551) and the Denver Nuggets (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-23 |
Mavs v. 76ers UNDER 232 |
Top |
108-116 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). THE SITUATION: Dallas (37-39) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 127-104 win at Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Philadelphia (49-26) has lost three in a row — and four of their last five — after a 116-111 loss at Denver as a 7-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks stepped to make 56.6% of their shots against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last 36 games. But Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better from the field in their last game. Despite that effort, the Mavericks are only scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions in their last ten games, ranking 23rd in the league over that span. The acquisition of Kyrie Irving has not worked in generating a healthy and cohesive “big two” with Luka Doncic who recently conceded he is miserable right now. Dallas is too reliant on making 3s — they lead the NBA by attempting 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc. They make 37.2% of their 3s which ranks ninth in the league — but it comes at the expense of being last in the NBA in rebounding. The Mavericks pull down only 22.9% of their missed shots, the lowest mark in the league. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point-spread win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. On the road, the Mavericks have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when the total is set at 230 or higher. An encouraging development for head coach Jason Kidd’s team was the play of their defense as they held the Pacers to 41.9% shooting. The Mavs’ defense has been bad this year — but a better effort on that end can make a difference. Dallas is tied for the last spot in the Western Conference playoff race — they would lose out to Oklahoma City to qualify for the play-in game so this is an important contest. The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia will want to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 50.6% of their shots, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. Philly has seen a dip in their 3-point shooting — they are making only 36.6% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games as opposed to their 38.6% shooting mark from behind the arc overall. But the Sixers are defending the perimeter better as of late as they rank second in the NBA by holding their opponents to hit just 32.1% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games. In their last ten games, Philly ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Back at home, the 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams not winning at least 40% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Joel Embiid and James Harden are listed as questionable tonight with nagging injuries. While Embiid is an MVP candidate who excels at both ends of the court, Harden’s potential absence certainly helps our Under play. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-23 |
Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 235 |
|
109-120 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-37) has won five games in a row after their 124-90 victory at Portland as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Golden State (39-37) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 99-96 upset loss to Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans shot 57.0% from the field yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last 46 contests — so expect a visit from the Regression Gods. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while the Pelicans have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Golden State has played two straight Unders — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. They stay at home where they have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Warriors rank third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 12 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Golden State Under the Total. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-23 |
Wolves v. Kings OVER 238 |
|
119-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (511) and the Sacramento Kings (512). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (38-37) has won three straight games after their 99-96 upset win at Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Sacramento (45-29) has won five of their last six games after their 121-113 win against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves made only 42.5% of their shots yesterday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. But they pulled off the upset by holding the Warriors to just 41.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Minnesota’s previous four opponents all shot 52.9% or better against them. The T-Wolves have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total after playing their previous game on the road. They have played 21 of their last 31 road games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Sacramento has won two games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home after winning two games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total at home after a point spread loss. The Kings have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: These teams last played on March 4th when Sacramento won by a 138-134 score as a 4-point underdog. These two teams have played 5 straight Overs when playing in Sacramento. 8* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (511) and the Sacramento Kings (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-23 |
Thunder v. Blazers OVER 232 |
|
118-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (575) and the Portland Trail Blazers (576). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (36-38) has lost two games in a row after their 116-111 loss in Los Angeles to the Lakers as a 5-point underdog on Friday. Portland (32-41) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 124-96 loss to Chicago as a 5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunder lost to the Lakers despite holding them to 46.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Oklahoma City has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Portland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their previous contest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing their previous game by 20 or more points. The Blazers stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Trail Blazers will be undermanned in this one with Damian Lillard, Josef Nurkic, Anfernee Simmons, and Jerami Grant all getting the night off due to injury. Those absences will not help their defensive effort tonight. Portland has lost seven in a row to the Thunder with the last three setbacks being upset losses — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge. 8* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (575) and the Portland Trail Blazers (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-23 |
Pacers v. Raptors OVER 232 |
Top |
118-114 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (503) and the Toronto Raptors (504). THE SITUATION: Indiana (32-40) has lost three of their last four games after their 115-109 loss at Charlotte as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Toronto (35-37) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 118-111 loss at Milwaukee as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers lost to the Hornets despite holding them to 45.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten games. But they only shot 45.1% from the field themselves which was the worst shooting performance in their last three games. Indiana has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did get back rookie Benedict Mathurin for this contest who scored 18 points in the losing effort. But the team misses Tyrese Haliburton who has been out for five straight games with a knee injury — and he is questionable to play tonight. The offense has not suffered with Haliburton — the team is making 48.3% of their shots in their last five games which have generated 117.4 Points-Per-Game. Both of those marks are above their season averages of 115.8 PPG and a 46.6% field goal percentage. But the Pacers' defense has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots which has resulted in them scoring 122.2 PPG, a 3.9 PPG bump above their season average. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. And in their last 33 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have played 22 of these games Over the Total. Toronto only made 44.4% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Acquiring Jakob Poetl from San Antonio at the trade deadline has ignited their offensive attack that sorely needed another big man in the middle. They have made 49.7% of their shots in their last five games which have generated 119.6 PPG. But the defense for the Raptors remains an issue as they have allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Their last five opponents have made 50.1% of their shots against them which is resulting in 113.6 PPG. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, the Raptors have then played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Furthermore, Toronto has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will be looking to avenge a 122-114 upset loss at Indiana as a 1.5-point favorite on the road back on January 22nd — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (503) and the Toronto Raptors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-23 |
Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5 |
|
108-112 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (567) and the Memphis Grizzlies (568). THE SITUATION: Dallas (36-35) has won two games in a row after their 111-110 upset win in Los Angeles against the Lakers on Friday. Memphis (43-27) has won five of their last six games after their 133-119 win against Golden State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks allowed the Lakers to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. This team is playing undermanned tonight with Luka Doncic still out and both Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway, Jr. are questionable. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Memphis made 54.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. This team is also missing key pieces of their offensive attack with Ja Morant out indefinitely and both Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams are out with injuries. Jalen Jackson, Jr. is questionable with a calf injury. The Under is 7-3-1 in the Grizzlies’ last 11 games at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total after Memphis beat Dallas by a 104-88 score back on March 13th with the Total set at 220 for that game. 8* NBA Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (567) and the Memphis Grizzlies (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-15-23 |
Celtics v. Wolves UNDER 233.5 |
|
104-102 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (581) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (582). THE SITUATION: Boston (47-22) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 111-109 upset loss at Houston as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (35-34) has won four of their last six games after their 136-115 victory as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves nailed 58.7% of their shots on Monday against the Hawks — but that was the second-highest field goal percentage in their last 39 games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston continues their road trip having played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total away from home. They have also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total with the total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Boston Celtics (581) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-23 |
Nuggets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 |
|
110-125 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the Toronto Raptors (564). THE SITUATION: Denver (46-22) has lost three games in a row after their 122-120 upset loss to Brooklyn as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. Toronto (32-36) has lost three in a row and five of their last seven after a 122-112 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After playing better defense for much of the season, the Nuggets have taken a step back again on that end of the court. They have allowed their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Nets accomplished that feat against them on Sunday. Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Toronto has allowed seven straight opponents to make at least 50% of their shots against them. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 23-9-1 in their last 33 meetings against each other after Denver beat Toronto last Tuesday by a 118-113 score as a 6-point favorite with the Total set at 229. This rematch is in Toronto — and these two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing in the Raptors’ building. 8* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the Toronto Raptors (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-23 |
Pacers v. Pistons OVER 226 |
|
97-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (545) and the Detroit Pistons (546). THE SITUATION: Indiana (31-37) has won two straight games after their 121-115 victory at Detroit as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Detroit (15-53) has lost 11 games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers made 46.2% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They also held the Pistons to nail 45.7% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. Indiana has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win against a Central Division rival. And while they have won three of their last four games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. The Pacers have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against Central Division opponents. Indiana’s 46.2% shooting percentage on Saturday was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. But Detroit has covered the point spread only once in their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have been hit hard with injuries — and that means role players get the opportunity to score points against suspect defensive players. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other Over the Total. 8* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (545) and the Detroit Pistons (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-23 |
Bulls v. Wizards OVER 227.5 |
|
97-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (501) and the Washington Wizards (502). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 107-99 loss at Boston as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Washington (17-24) has lost three games in a row after a 132-113 upset loss to New Orleans as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls only made 45.3% of their shots against the Celtics which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. Chicago has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Chicago is playing better basketball as of late having won eight of their last 12 contests — and they own the 6th most efficient offense in the league over that span. Zach LaVine has stepped up his game by scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game in the last three weeks on 52% shooting and a sizzling 47.3% clip from behind the arc. The Bulls stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Washington has not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Wizards have also played 12 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when playing their second game in five days. They have allowed each of their last three opponents to nail 48% or more of their shots from the field — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games over the Total after allowing three straight opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. Washington stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 24 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total against opponents with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Wizards’ recent slide on defense has coincided with Bradley Beal's hamstring injury against Milwaukee on January 3rd. They have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog of six points or less. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (501) and the Washington Wizards (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-23 |
Hawks v. Lakers OVER 242 |
|
114-130 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (521) and the Los Angeles Lakers (522). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (18-20) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 120-117 upset win at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (17-21) has won three games in a row and four of their last five after their 112-109 upset win against Miami as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hawks are playing high-scoring games given their offensive weapons and fast pace combined with listless efforts on defense. Over their last ten games, they are playing at the 4th quickest pace in the league. Atlanta is making 47.1% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 120.6 Points-Per-Game. But they are allowing their opponents to make 49.2% of their shots in their last five games which are allowing their opponents to put up 125.4 PPG. The Hawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. And while the game finished well below the 245-point total, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. LeBron Hames and Russell Westbrook are expected to play tonight with both players upgraded to probable for tonight’s game. James got Wednesday’s night game off after logging at least 39 minutes in each of his two previous games. James is scoring 36.6 PPG in his last five games. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Los Angeles is making 51.0% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 118.0 PPG. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 230s. Additionally, the Lakers have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are dealing with injuries. Anthony Davis remains out for Los Angeles — and Austin Reeves and Troy Brown, Jr. are also out tonight. Clint Capela is out for the Hawks. These two teams last played on December 30th with the Lakers upset Atlanta on the road by a 130-121 score as a 6.5-point underdog despite the Hawks making only 28.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Atlanta allows their opponents to make 47.4% of their shots — and Los Angeles has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46.0% or higher. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (521) and the Los Angeles Lakers (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-22 |
Clippers v. Wizards OVER 218.5 |
Top |
114-107 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will bhe playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Washington Wizards (526). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-13) has lost two straight -- and four of their last five contests — after their 115-110 loss at Miami as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Washington (11-15) has lost five in a row — and eight of their last nine contests — after a 121-111 loss at Indiana as a 4-point underdog last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is their fourth game since Monday, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing for the fourth time in seven days. The Clippers have Kawhi Leonard back on the court and reunited with Paul George — yet the team is not playing hard on the defensive end of the court. In their last five games (with Leonard back for the last three), they are allowing their opponents to nail 49.3% of their shots which is translating into 119.2 Points-Per-Game. They complete their four-game road trip having played 6 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record a home. Los Angeles has also played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Washington has allowed three straight opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Pacers made 50.6% of their shots last night. The Wizards have allowed their last three opponents to hit 48.7% of their shots which has resulted in them giving up 119.2 PPG during that span. The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Washington has also played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. They are undermanned right now with several injuries including Bradley Beal and Will Barton being out tonight. They return home where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Wizards have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 25 of their last 34 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Washington. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Washington Wizards (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-22 |
Clippers v. Blazers UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
118-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Portland Trail Blazers (526). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-9) has won four of their last six games after their 114-100 upset win against Indiana as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Portland (11-9) has lost five of their last six games after a 111-97 loss at Brooklyn as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers will be undermanned tonight with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and John Wall all out due to various ailments. As it is, Los Angeles ranks 29th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are also 2nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (but playing without George does not help their cause on that end of the court). The Clippers have played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Portland is playing with Damian Lillard who is dealing with a calf injury. The Trail Blazers return home for one game after being on the road since November 20th. The Under is 16-7-1 in their last 24 home games after being on the road for seven or more days. The Under is 18-7-2 in Portland’s last 27 games at home — and the Under is 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing against each other in Portland. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Portland Trail Blazers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-22 |
Suns v. Wolves UNDER 222.5 |
|
129-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (548). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 100-88 upset loss at Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (5-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-107 upset loss to New York as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns are dealing with injuries with Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson out for tonight’s game. Paul has struggled with his shot so far this season — but he remains elite as a floor general so the team will miss his point guard skills. Johnson was elevated to the starting lineup this season with Jae Crowder sitting out demanding a trade — so his injury leaves the team thin at the wing lacking 3-point shooters. Johnson scored 29 points in the Suns’ 116-107 win against the Timberwolves on November 1st. Phoenix has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Suns have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. The Suns only made 43.8% of their shots on Monday — but that was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. They are holding things down on the defensive end of the court — they have held four of their last five opponents to 109 or fewer points and no better than 43.7% shooting from the field. On the road, they are scoring only 103.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their home hosts to 102.7 PPG on 42.2% shooting. Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and the Under is 20-8-2 in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Timberwolves are struggling to find cohesion with the addition of Rudy Gobert. The play on the defensive end of the court has been good — they rank 9th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the T-Wolves are bottom-ten in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The problem appears to be the mix between Karl Anthony-Towns and Gobert are scoring only 101.4 points per 100 possessions in their 206 minutes together which would be the lowest offensive efficiency in the league. They stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road (Phoenix: 1-2 on the road).
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-22 |
Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 224 |
Top |
119-123 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (535) and the Boston Celtics (536). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-4) has won four of their last six games after a 106-88 win against Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston (4-3) has lost three of their last four games after a 114-113 upset loss at Cleveland on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls are playing better defense this season led by Alex Caruso and Javonte Green. They held the Hornets to just 39.1% shooting after limiting Brooklyn to only 99 points in their previous game. Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 13 games after playing a game where no more than 195 combined points were scored, the Bulls have played 8 of those games Under the Total. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Boston misses Robert Williams III who is out for a few months with an injury — but they are beginning to play better on defense. After holding Washington to 38.8% shooting, they limited the Cavaliers to just 42.0% shooting on Wednesday. Boston is still playing well in defending the rim even without Williams. They rank 4th in the NBA in preventing shots at the rim — and they are 9th in the league in opponent’s field goal percentage within four feet of the rim. The Celtics have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 36 of their last 57 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 120-102 loss at Chicago as a 5.5-point favorite on October 24th — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road as the favorite. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (535) and the Boston Celtics (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-22 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (1-2) enters this game coming off a 134-124 loss at Memphis as a pick ‘em on Monday. Milwaukee (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after a 125-105 win against Houston as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets nailed 54% of their shots on Monday against the Grizzlies which was the best shooting effort this season. But they allowed Memphis to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance of the new campaign. Brooklyn has been a disaster on defense this season allowing their first three opponents to score 123.0 Points-Per-Game on 49.3% shooting — but I think much of this is explained by the level of intensity Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving bring to that end of the floor. These two played harder on defense in the playoffs against Boston last spring — and I expect a similar effort tonight in this nationally-televised game. As it is, the Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Brooklyn has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. And while they have allowed their three opponents to make 48.8% of their shots, they have then played 42 of their last 64 games Under the Total after allowing three straight opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field including ten of those last fifteen circumstances. What is perhaps more troubling for the Nets is their lack of efficiency on the offensive end of the court with their starting five. In the 73 possessions that Durant, Irving, Ben Simmons, Royce O’Neal, and Nic Clayton have been on the court together, they are scoring only 97.3 points per 100 possessions. As the Celtics exposed in the playoffs last year, this offense can be slow, stagnant, and predictable when Durant and Irving are playing “your turn, my turn” with the basketball. Adding Simmons and Claxton into the mix adds two players who do not present any scoring threat — making that starting five even easier to defend. Brooklyn has played 39 of their last 62 games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee shot a season-high 56.5% from the field in their win against the Rockets. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Bucks have also played 4 straight Unders when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on their home court. Milwaukee is playing without two of their best shooters with Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton out with injuries. Their absences have allowed for Wes Matthews and Jelon Carter to play more minutes, who are more effective on the defensive end. The Bucks lead the NBA by allowing their opponents to score 97.9 points per 100 possessions. But the offense ranks 25th in Adjusted Net Efficiency despite playing two bottom-ten defenses in terms of efficiency. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has his team playing at a slower pace as they rank 26th in tempo this season after ranking 4th in that metric last year. Brooklyn ranks 24th in the league in pace.
FINAL TAKE: Simmons defended Giannis Antetokounmpo in an interesting matchup — he held the Greek Freak to just 6 of 21 shooting in the preseason (for what that is worth). The Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 meetings against each other — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games in Milwaukee Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
103-90 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-35) can win the NBA Championship tonight after taking a 3-2 lead in this series with their 104-94 win at home against the Celtics as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Boston (65-40) returns home looking to stave off elimination after losing three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I suspect the market has not adapted enough to the fundamental change that has occurred in this series. After holding the Celtics to just 97 and then 94 points in the last two games in this series, the Warriors have found the answers as to how to best deploy their defensive efforts. Golden State is playing tight and aggressive defense that is making things uncomfortable for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics lack a consistent third scoring option or reliable 3-point shooting to counter these tactics. Let’s remember that Golden State ranked second in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 107 points per 100 possessions in the regular season — despite not playing with Draymond Green for a long stretch. Game Three of this series had 216 combined points scored after Game Two only had 195 combined points scored. The Warriors have held Boston to no more 88, 94, and 97 points in three of their last four games. The lone exception was in Game Three when Boston scored 116 points — fueled by a 47 to 31 edge on the boards. Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr immediately made his team’s effort on the boards a high priority. After pulling down 15 offensive rebounds in that Game Three, the Celtics have only managed 11 and then 8 offensive boards in the two games since after Kerr cajoled his team to tighten things up. The last two games in this series have had only 204 and 198 combined points scored — and Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The Warriors’ energy level of defense should continue with the extra day of rest — they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest including seven of those last ten occasions. Golden State was called for 28 personal fouls on Monday with Boston being whistled for only 16 fouls — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being called for at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. Golden State is scoring only 105.2 points per game in this series with that average dropping to 103.7 PPG in the last three games. One of the dynamics that is contributing to this is the less of a role Jordan Poole is playing. Poole is a liability on defense which has compelled Kerr to give him less playing time. He is averaging just 17 minutes per game in the last two games after only being on the court for 14:17 minutes on Monday mostly to give Stephen Curry a spell. He did score 14 points in Game Five — but three of those points were that buzzer-beating 40-footer at the end of the third quarter. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. Additionally, the Celtics have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when committing at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 212.5 |
|
94-104 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play. The Celtics have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after an upset loss where they lost by double-digits. Boston has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after playing their last two games on their home court. Getting back to two days off between games should help the Celtics’ energy when playing defense — they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Golden State has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 8 straight Unders when playing on their home court with two days of rest. The Warriors return home where they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. These two teams have played 18 of their last 24 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Golden State.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Boston-Golden State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 |
|
107-97 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make — first and foremost, Kevon Looney is likely to get more time tonight after playing only 16:49 minutes in Game Three. Kerr will likely want Looney to be on the court for longer stretches tonight to slow down the Celtics’ edge on the glass. This move will help Golden State’s defensive cause, but it will also hurt them on the offensive end. Looney is not a threat to score — and his presence on the court allows the Boston defender assigned to him to provide more help in rim protection. Golden State also needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. Expect for Green to be more physical and active tonight. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total when playing their second game in five days. Additionally, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. Boston did play their worst defensive game in their last four contests by allowing the Warriors to make 46.2% of their shots. That defensive field goal percentage was the second-highest that the Celtics have allowed in their last seven games. Boston is favored again tonight — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 8 of their last 12 playoff games Under the Total when leading the series — and Golden State has played 15 of their last 21 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-08-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 213.5 |
|
100-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Boston Celtics (522) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games after winning Game Two of the NBA Finals by a 107-88 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (64-38) returns home with this series tied at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 15 of their 37 shots (40.5%) from behind the arc in Game Two — after making 19 of their 45 shots (42.2%) from behind the arc in Game One. After converting 34 of their 82 shots from 3-point range in the two games at Golden State, I do not expect the Warriors to continue to shoot 41.5% from behind the arc. Golden State shoots 35.7% from the 3-point land when playing away from home — and the Celtics hold their opponents to 33.7% shooting from behind the arc. The extra day of rest should help both teams have fresh legs for their energy and efforts on defense. The Warriors have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston made 15 of their 37 shots (40.5%) from behind the arc in Game Two despite only shooting 37.5% overall. The Celtics won Game One because of their 21 of 41 clip (51.2%) from 3-point range. After making 36 of their 78 shots (46.2%) from behind the arc in the first two games, I expect that percentage to drop tonight. Boston shoots 35.4% from 3-point range at home — and the Warriors hold their opponents to 34.6% shooting from behind the arc this season. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance to slow down both teams’ 3-point shooting. The Celtics should be tough on defense with the extra day of rest and preparation — they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Boston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 10 games when favored, the Celtics have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 20 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Boston Celtics (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-05-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 |
|
88-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-37) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series. Golden State (65-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 120-108 upset loss at home to the Celtics in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State allowed the Celtics to make 50.6% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst game on defense in their last 13 contests. Boston also made 21 of their 41 shots (51.2%) from behind the arc. First up on head coach Steve Kerr’s list of Things To Do is shore things up on defense. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. The extra day of rest and preparation should help as Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 straight games at home Under the Total when getting two days between games. The Warriors have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Furthermore, Golden State has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when trailing in the playoffs. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Daniel Theis combined to nail 18 of their 27 shots (67%) from 3-point range — just a tremendous accomplishment for a group where just Pritchard and Theis made more than 33.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season yet, tellingly, they averaged fewer 3-point attempts per game than the trio of Horford, Smart, and White in the regular season. The Celtics are not likely to shoot as well from behind the arc tonight — but they should defend the arc better after Golden State made 19 of their 45 shots (42%) from 3-point range. Boston was second in the regular season by limiting their opponents to 33.9% shooting from behind the arc.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 16 of their last 21 meetings Under the Total — including 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at Golden State. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-22 |
Celtics v. Warriors OVER 212.5 |
|
120-108 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (517) and the Golden State Warriors (518) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-37) won their third game in their last four with their 100-96 victory on the road in Miami as a 3-point favorite to take that series in seven games. Golden State (65-33) has won five of their last six games after their 120-110 victory at home against Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite last Thursday to close out that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Celtics took Game Seven against the Heat despite making only 41.2% of their shots against them which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 45.4% of their shots in the playoffs — and they are scoring 112.0 Points-Per-Game when playing on the road this season. The Over is 20-9-1 in their last 30 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Boston has played 30 of their last 47 road games Over the Total after playing their last game on the road — and they have played 44 of their last 70 road games over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Golden State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They made 51.1% of their shots against the Mavericks last Thursday to close out that series. The Warriors lead all teams in the playoffs by scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions — up from the 112.8 points per 100 possessions scoring clip they enjoyed in the regular season. They are making 49.4% of their shots in the postseason which is generating 114.5 PPG. Furthermore, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Golden State has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the NBA Finals. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (517) and the Golden State Warriors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-22 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 198 |
|
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series to force the decisive Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs Under the Total when the series was tied. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Heat have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home after losing two of their last three games. They return home for this Game Seven where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on the road avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-27-22 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 202 |
Top |
111-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (63-35) has lost two straight and three of the last four games in this series after a 93-80 loss at home as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston (62-36) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After scoring only 82 points and shooting a season-low 33.3% from the field in their 20-point loss on the road in Game Four, Wednesday’s Game Five was the time that the Heat needed to step up. Instead, they made only 7 of their 45 shots (16%) from behind the arc and set a new standard in futility with their shooting for the season by making only 31.9% of their shots in scoring just 83 points in their seven-point loss. I don’t Miami is a fraud — my conclusion is that injuries have simply robbed the team of its offensive identity. Everything starts with Jimmy Butler — exemplified in Game One when he scored 41 points while getting to the free-throw line 18 times. The Heat scored 118 points against the top statistical defense in the NBA. And head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team shoot plenty of shots from behind the arc as they demonstrated by their dominant start to Game Three where they seized a 26-point lead in the second quarter. Then Butler re-injured the knee that has been nagging him for much of the season. Miami holds on to win Game Three — and Butler returns to the court to play in the last two games. But he is a shell of himself. In Game Four, he scores only 6 points on 3 of 14 shooting — and he is no drive in his game as he fails to get to the free-throw line even once. He was a bit better on Wednesday — but he still only got to three free throw line four times in scoring 13 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Since the injury, he has made only 7 of 32 shots for a 21.9% field goal percentage. Kyle Lowry was brought in during the offseason to be the second or third scoring option in the starting lineup — but he is far from 100% with the Hamstring that kept him earlier in the playoffs. He did not score in Game Five after scoring just 3 points in Game Four. Lowry has made only one shot in the last two games — and he has taken just 12 shots in those two contests. Tyler Herro won the Sixth Man of the Year Award by scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench — but the Heat have been without their second-leading scorer since he injured his groin in Game Three. Even if he returns tonight, his effectiveness is in doubt since his injury usually puts players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Bam Adebayo has been fine — he scored 18 points on 8 of 15 shooting on Wednesday. But he is not a number one scoring option — and this clever Celtics team now knows to focus their energies on him. Miami has Victor Oladipo who can provide offense — but he scored only 3 points on 1 of 7 shooting coming off the bench in Game Five. Spoelstra cannot play Duncan Robinson because he is a liability on defense. That puts Max Strus in the starting line up who missed all nine of his shots from the field on Wednesday. Miami can’t flip a switch to make Butler or Lowry or Herro healthy again — and perhaps the flaw of this team is that they really need at least two of those guys performing well to complement Adebayo. Since Game Two of this series, the Heat are scoring 1.01 Points-Per-Possession — and they are scoring 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the halfcourt. Granted, they should make more than the 13 of 39 clip-on uncontested shots from the field they endured in Game Five. But this is now a team that is likely to struggle to score even 90 points when playing on the road against the elite Boston defense. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot 35% or better from the field. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. Back at home, Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: While Miami’s ability to score points is in doubt, their commitment to making things difficult for the Celtics on the other end of the court is not. They have held Boston to just 35% shooting from 3-point land — and the Celtics have not scored more than 103 points in each of the last three games of the series. Spoelstra will no longer be interested in pushing the pace in this series — this needs to be a slog for his team to have a chance. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-22 |
Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 |
|
110-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (61-38) snapped their three-game losing streak in this series with a 119-109 victory on the road against the Warriors as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Golden State (64-33) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss — but they can still end this series tonight given their 3-1 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks nailed 47% of their shots from behind the arc in Game Four — and their 50% field goal percentage overall was the best mark they posted in this series. But Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. And in their last 23 games after losing two of their last three games, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Golden State played their worst game on defense in their last 11 contests by allowing Dallas to make 50% of their shots. But the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Golden State has also played 9 of their last 13 games in the Western Conference Finals Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Mavericks have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* NBA Dallas-Golden State TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-24-22 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 216 |
Top |
109-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (64-32) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-100 upset victory on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday. Dallas (60-38) has lost four of their last six games after falling behind 0-3 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors’ zone defense is stifling the Mavericks in this series. Dallas is making only 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but they continue to live-or-die by the 3 as they are attempting 52% of their shots from the field from distance. The Mavericks’ lack of size is hurting them in this series as well — they are only pulling down 18.2% of their missed shots. Golden State won the rebounding battle by a 47-33 margin on Sunday — and they have outrebounded Dallas by at least 13 boards in each of the games in this series. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. And while Golden State has covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They have played 4 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Furthermore, Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. The Mavericks stay at home where the Under is 37-13-1 in their last 51 games —and they have played 20 of their last 27 home games when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-22 |
Mavs v. Suns UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
123-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (59-35) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 113-86 upset victory as a 2-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (71-23) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas has steadily improved their defensive play in this series. After allowing the Suns to score 125 Points-Per-Game with a 1.32 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate, they have contained Phoenix to just 90 PPG with 1.05 PPG scoring rate in the last four games of this series. Granted, three of those four games were played in Dallas — but Phoenix scored 110 points in Game Five back at home with a 49.4% field goal percentage. The Suns average 115.5 PPG on their home court — so Dallas’ effort in Game Five was still pretty good. Phoenix began the playoffs by making at least 50% of their shots in their first eight games — including nailing at least 60% of their shots in two contests — while averaging 114.8 PPG during that span. The Mavericks have found a way to slow down Chris Paul who is only scoring 9.3 PPG in his last four games. Jalen Brunson has proven himself a gritty defender against Paul who is struggling against his physicality. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Mavs have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. Dallas made 45.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Mavericks have been outrebounded by at least six rebounds in all six games in this series — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Phoenix has played 12 of their last 16 game Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Suns have also played 12 straight Unders after a loss on the road, in general. Additionally, Phoenix has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponents by at least five boards in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-12-22 |
Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 |
|
99-90 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (60-35) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 120-85 victory against the 76ers as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Philadelphia (57-36) trails 3-2 in this series and seeks to avoid elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami made 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory on their home court by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. They are missing Kyle Lowry tonight with his injured hamstring who is one of their most reliable scoring options. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they may have figured something out about the best way to slow down the 76ers’ offense. Head coach Erik Spoelstra had Jimmy Butler defend Tyrese Maxey in Game Four — and the rookie only hit 2 of his 10 shots for 9 points and one assist. Butler is a savvy defender who can take advantage of Maxey’s inexperience. The switch also allowed P.J. Tucker to defend James Harden who followed up his 31-point effort with just 14 points on 5 of 13 shooting. The Sixers need Joel Embiid close to full strength — but it is clear he is nowhere close with him wearing a mask to protect his injured orbital bone and the bum thumb that is limited his shooting touch. Embiid only took 12 shots on Tuesday — and he only attempted one shot from 3-point range. Embiid not being a scoring threat from outside changes the dynamic for the 76ers offense — it is one of the reasons why they are scoring just 99.0 Points-Per-Game in this series. Philly has not scored more than 103 points in this series in four of the five games in this series. The Sixers should play much better on defense tonight as the 53.6% shooting clip they allowed the Heat to generate was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. Philadelphia has played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a low by 30 or more points. Moving forward, the 76ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Philly has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and these two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Miami-Philadelphia ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-22 |
Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
110-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series with their 116-108 upset loss at home against the Celtics as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Boston (57-33) has won seven of their last nine games while evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee went into the fourth quarter in Game Four with a seven-point lead — but they surrendered a whopping 43 points in the final 12 minutes to get outscored by 15 points in the loss. That was the worst defensive effort for the Bucks in their last nine games. Milwaukee still leads all teams in the playoffs in Defensive Efficiency. The first item on head coach Mike Budenholzer’s agenda is to tighten things up on defense again. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Milwaukee misses Khris Middleton who remains out with a knee injury. Not only did he score 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game in the regular season, but he is the team’s primary ball-handler which is critical for this team because he allows Giannis Antetokounmpo to exert less energy. Given the injury to Middleton, more is being asked of Jrue Holiday -- but he is more effective as a third scoring option rather than the primary complement to Antetokounmpo. Holiday is averaging 23 shot attempts per game in this series — but he is making only 33.6% of his shots and 30.9% of his shots from behind the arc. Brook Lopez becomes the de-facto third scoring option with Middleton out — but while he has scored 17 PPG in the playoffs when playing at home, he is only scoring 4.8 PPG on the road in the playoffs. Moving forward, Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last five games with their 50% shooting clip on Monday. They got a huge effort from Al Horford who nailed 11 of his 14 shots from the field including 5 of 7 from behind the arc for 30 points. The Celtics’ 116 points was tied for the highest-scoring game in their last eight contests. But Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. After leading the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in the regular season, they are third in the playoffs in defense while giving up the second-fewest points in the paint. The Celtics have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Boston has played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-22 |
Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 213.5 |
|
101-103 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-32) has won six of their last seven games with their 109-86 victory at home against the Bucks as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee (56-33) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Celtics in Game Two after they were flat in a 104-89 loss in Game One. One of our arguments was that the Bucks’ four-game winning streak — all without the injured Khris Middleton — was likely to eventually catch up to them. Milwaukee responded to the sense of urgency of losing Middleton by scoring at least 111 points in their next three games against Chicago to end that series in five games. But combating the Bulls defense is not nearly the same challenge as facing the Celtics who led the league in Defensive Rating — and who had just gotten Robert Williams III back from injury. The Bucks only made 41.1% of their shots in Game One despite winning by 12 points. While Milwaukee did shoot better on Tuesday at a 46.6% clip, they missed 15 of their 18 shots from behind the arc. The Bucks should make more of their 3-pointers back at home — but the fact remains that they are only hitting 15 of their 52 shots from downtown for a 28.8% clip. The Celtics defense certainly has something to do with that. Milwaukee was eventually going to miss Middleton’s 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Both of the first two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Milwaukee’s first order of business will likely be to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Celtics to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Bucks have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point favorite. Boston’s 47.5% shooting percentage was their best mark in three games — but that number cloaks their red-hot 20 of 43 (47%) shooting mark from behind the arc in Game Two which will likely drop significantly this afternoon, especially since this is just their third game in 12 days after the mid-series hiatus to accommodate the television schedules. Celtics’ head coach Ime Udoka made a nice adjustment in Game Two by having either Grant Williams or Al Horford double-team Giannis Antetokounmpo out on the perimeter if he moves outside while keeping Williams III on his down low. This is where Milwaukee really misses Middleton to provide help in the offense and be the primary ball-carrier for much of the game. Antetokounmpo missed three of his four shots from behind the arc. Jrue Holiday and him accounted for 47 of the 73 shots the team took in Game Two — and the duo accounting for more than 64% of the team’s shots is not the balance that head coach Mike Budenholzer wants. And now Boston gets back Marcus Smart who has been upgraded to probable after missing Game Two with a thigh injury. Having the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year defending Holiday complicates matters for the Bucks playing without Middleton. The Celtics got a surprising 21 points from Grant Williams — he combined with Jaylen Brown to nail 12 of their combined 19 shots from behind the arc. That is not likely to happen again. Boston has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after no more than 195 combined points were scored in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in the Bucks’ last 26 games in the playoffs when they are the favorite. 10* NBA Boston-Milwaukee ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (59-28) has won three of their last four games with their 111-109 win at against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (49-39) hopes to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This series has been trending to lower-scoring games. After Game One saw 247 combined points scored, the Total moved up from a closing number in the 238 range for the first game to a closing Total in the 240 range. Game Two saw only 220 combined points scored before Game Three saw the series-low of 199 points. Game Four’s final score upticked back to 237 combined points (thanks for a furious scoring pace in the final minute). Game Five’s final score dropped to 220. Memphis is finding success in this series by winning the battle on the boards. After outrebounding the Timberwolves by a 53-42 margin on Tuesday, the Grizzlies have outrebounded them by at least five boards in the last four games. Memphis has then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last opponent by at least five rebounds in fouur straight games. The Grizzlies go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when favored. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. After exploding 130 points in Game One, the Timberwolves are averaging only 104.8 PPG in the last four games in this series on 42.5% shooting from the field. They have scored more than 109 points just once in these last four games — and they have not cleared 96 points twice in the last four. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Grizzlies outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. The T-Wolves have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at Minnesota. 25* NBA Round One Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-28-22 |
76ers v. Raptors UNDER 210 |
Top |
132-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (54-33) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 103-88 loss at home against the Raptors as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Toronto (50-37) trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers are not as potent on offense since Joel Embiid injured his right thumb on his shooting hand. Philadelphia had a 61.5% effective field goal percentage before the injury — but they have a collective 48.1% effective field goal percentage as a team ever since after making only 38.3% of their shots on Monday. Embiid still scored 20 points in the loss in Game Five — but he cannot carry the team on offense and his outside shot is now limited. He missed all four of his shots from behind the arc in Game Five and his diminished threat as an outside shooter disrupts the team’s spacing on the court. The 76ers’ route to victory tonight is to play better defense after allowing the Raptors to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games — and the Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Sixers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Toronto enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests after nailing 51.2% of their shots. But the Raptors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory as a road underdog in their last game. They have also played 30 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last two games against Atlantic Division rivals. And while they have only covered the point spread in two of their last seven games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors will likely be without Fred VanVleet once again tonight. His absence helps Toronto on defense where he is a liability — but he is perhaps their most reliable scorer. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA 1st Round Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-27-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 218 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-39) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing by a 119-95 score at home to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (54-32) has a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago lost their second-best offensive player yesterday when Zack LaVine once again tested positive for COVID — he is out for tonight’s game. The Bulls will also be without Alex Caruso who is in the concussion protocol. Chicago will miss Caruso’s contributions on defense — but the net effect of losing both players is a net loss on the offensive end of the court. As it is, the Bulls are only scoring 94.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs which is the second-worst of all the teams in the first round of the playoffs. They are making just 39.8% of their shots in this series which is generating only 94.0 Points-Per-Game. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. And while they have lost seven of their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulls have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total. And in their last 20 games against division opponents, Chicago has played 16 of these contests Under the Total while scoring just 102.4 PPG in those 20 games — but allowing only 105.1 PPG. Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on the road. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bucks will continue to playing without Khris Middleton who scored 20.1 PPG and averaged 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Milwaukee has stepped up to nail 43.2% of their 74 shots from behind the arc in their last two games. The Bucks shoot 36.4% from 3-point range at home — so the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit. Milwaukee made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Under is 15-5-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. Chicago has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a 20-point loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-26-22 |
Hawks v. Heat UNDER 216 |
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94-97 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (46-42) has lost three of their last four games after their 110-86 loss at home to the Heat as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (56-30) has a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a divisional opponent. Miami has stymied Trae Young and this Atlanta offense that likes to get most of their points in the half-court. The Hawks led the NBA by scoring 101.1 points per 100 possessions in the half-court in the regular season — but they are scoring just 92.1 points per 100 possessions in the postseason which is second-to-last of all sixteen teams that made the playoffs. The Heat are defending Young with double and triple teams and preventing him from driving into the paint. Young has taken more shots from 3-point land than inside the arc in this series — and his teammates are not offering enough help. Bogdan Bogdanovic is only making 23.6% of his 3s in this series and Kevin Huerter is hitting just 27.2% of his 3s. Now Atlanta goes on the road where they have played 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight who is out with knee inflammation. Butler has been outstanding in this series by scoring 30.5 Points-Per-Game with the Heat posting an Offensive Rating of 131.2 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. His absence complicates matters for this team when they have the ball since point guard Kyle Lowry is out as well. Without either player, head coach Erik Spoelstra really only has Gabe Vincent as a reliable ball-handler and initiator of the offense. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when favored — and they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Unders. With Butler out and the Heat stymying the Hawks’ half-court, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-25-22 |
Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 213.5 |
|
77-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (51-35) evened this series at 2-2 with their 100-99 victory against the Mavericks as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (54-32) has still won six of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Dallas has also played 27 of their last 42 games at home Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Dallas goes back home where the Under is 47-20-1 in their last 68 games — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total when favored. The Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Utah has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 49 of their last 71 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. They hit the road again where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Dallas.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 20* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-23-22 |
Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
118-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-27) won their second straight game in this series with their 104-95 victory against the Timberwolves as a 2-point road favorite on Thursday. Minnesota (48-38) blew a 26-point lead in the game and now trail 2-1 in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Taylor Jenkins has made an important adjustment in this series which should generate lowering-scoring games. After the Timberwolves scored 130 points in their 13-point upset victory, Jenkins only played big man Steven Adams for less in three minutes in Game Two with the Grizzlies holding Minnesota to 96 points. Adams did not play in Game Three. Karl Anthony-Towns was too much for Adams to defend — but Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke have been a handful for Towns to handle. Towns scored only 8 points on Thursday while taking a mere four shots from the field. The T-Wolves scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter in their historic collapse which was the biggest blown lead in loss in the history of the NBA playoffs. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no more than 100 points. The Grizzlies are a very good defensive team who ranked sixth in the NBA by holding their opponents to scoring just 108.9 points per 100 possessions — and they are better on that end of the court when benching Adams (while losing his significant offensive contributions). Memphis is fourth in Offensive Rating this season — but they score -2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road at a 112.3 rate, dropping to tenth in the league. The Grizzlies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Memphis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Minnesota is seventh in the NBA by scoring at a 113.8 points per 100 possession rate — but their offensive efficiency at home drops to 111.8 points per 100 possession rate which is 19th in the league. The Timberwolves are scoring just 95.5. Points-Per-Game in the last two games in this series — and now their leading scorer, Anthony Edwards, might be slowed with a knee injury. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The pace has slowed down in this series — and that is likely to continue. Memphis averages 94 shots per game — but they attempted only 83 shots on Thursday after taking 86 and 92 shots in the first games in this series. Minnesota averages 91 shots per game — but after taking 90 shots in Game One with Adams still in the rotation, the T-Wolves took only 76 shots in Game Two and 85 shots in Game Three. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Under the Total. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-22-22 |
Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216 |
|
114-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-19) comes off a 125-114 loss at home to the Pelicans as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. New Orleans (39-47) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns will miss Devin Booker who is out for at least two weeks with the Grade One hamstring injury he suffered in Game Two. Booker is the team’s best offensive player with a 26.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average with a 47% shooting percentage and a 38% clip from behind the arc. He also average 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Phoenix scores 10 fewer points per 100 possessions without Booker on the court — and, surprisingly, they hold their opponents to 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when Booker is not playing. As it is, the Under is 20-5-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Under is also 15-5-1 in their last 21 games when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix goes on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And in their last 8 games played with two days of rest, the Pelicans have played 7 of these games Under the Total. New Orleans has allowed the Suns to nail 50% of their shots in both of the first two games in this series. They have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after posting a defensive field goal percentage of at least 50% in their last two games. The Pelicans are dominating the boards — they have out-rebounded Phoenix by 20 and 10 boards in Games One and Two. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning the rebounding battle by at least 10 rebounds in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss in a road game. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-22-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 223 |
|
111-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With the series-ending MCL strain to Khris Middleton on Wednesday, the Bucks lost their second-best player who made significant contributions on both ends of the court. But Middleton’s impact will probably be felt more on offense. Middleton is the chief ball-handler for Milwaukee — especially with George Hill still out with his abdominal injury — and he is the team’s second-leading scorer with 20.1 Points-Per-Game scoring average. He also dishes out 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Without Middleton, the Bucks lack a reliable scorer to complement Giannis Antetokounmpo — especially when playing on the road. The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Milwaukee has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 playoff games when they are favored. And in their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Milwaukee has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulls are only posting a 100.0 Offensive Rating in this series — but they have held the Bucks to just a 101.5 Offensive Rating. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were a home favorite laying at least 10 points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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