Mr. East works hard all season long and that is why he is so successful at beating the bowl game odds. Last night was another example as he took down the UNDER in the 2008 Independence Bowl, giving him yet another winner with his bowl picks. Take a look at his analysis as to why he liked the UNDER:
Did a lot of research on this one, and I’ll try and capture why I am so bullish on this total. Louisiana Tech has been considered a high powered offense all season. Lately, that is hard to argue as they posted an average of 34ppg in their last 5 games. I think the numbers are very fraudelent here, and I’ll show you how statistics can lie. Louisiana Tech had half their schedule vs teams that rank #77 on defense or lower. The average of 5 of these teams was #95 out of 120 teams, with the 6th being a div-2 team. Their offense flourished in these games. The numbers show 424 yards a game, which would rank #25, and 6.14 yards a play. They averaged 39.3ppg in these 6 games, which would have put them at #13 in points scored per game. Pretty impressive numbers. They also had 5 games vs teams that were in the top half of all NCAAF defenses in yards allowed, and one other game, way over their head vs Kansas. Those 6 games saw Louisiana Tech average 280 yards a game, which would of ranked #114, and 11.2ppg which would have ranked dead last! The 6.14 yards per play was reduced to 4.28. Northern Illinois played in an offensive conference, yet finished with a defense ranked #21 in the country. That puts N. Illinois in the group of teams that held LA Tech to 11.2ppg. N. Illinois is a very limited offensive team themselves that if the numbers prevail here, will be called upon to put up 38 to put this game over the total. That is an unlikely scenerio for a team that scored 17 or less 5 times, and averaged under 20 in the 4 games they faced teams heading to Bowls. I like this one to go way under the total, and it is my BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!