Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Buffalo Bills -1
The Key: This is a difficult situation for the Los Angeles Rams. They were just out East last week against the Eagles, traveled back home, and now they have to travel back East to face one of the best teams in the NFL in the Buffalo Bills. It will be an early 10:00 AM body clock games for the Rams. The Bills are the real deal, and Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level. Allen leads a Buffalo offense that is scoring 29 PPG and averaging 464 YPG. I would call it pretty much a wash offensively, but the Bills defenitely have the better defense in this matchup, and they’re at home in a much more favorable situation than the Rams. Take Buffalo.
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1* Free Pick on Chiefs/Ravens over 52½ -108
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PICK - West Virginia Mountaineers +6.5
I know we could have got a better number with the Mountaineers earlier in the week, but I still think there's a ton of value with West Virginia catching almost a touchdown against Oklahoma State.
There's a lot of crazy shit that happens out of the gate, but few things stood out more to me than how bad the Cowboys looked in a 16-7 victory over Tulsa. It didn't help that starting quarterback Spencer Sanders got hurt and had to leave the game, but what's the excuse for how bad Chuba Hubbard was against a Tulsa defense that only brought back 4 starters.
Keep in mind Cowboys had over 500 yards vs the Golden Hurricane last year and Hubbard rushed for 256 yards on 32 attempts (8.0 ypc).
Hubbard only had 93 yards on 27 attempts (3.4 ypc) against Tulsa this time around and needed a big 4th quarter to even come close to 100 yards.
To me the offensive line wasn't up to par for Oklahoma State and that's likely to fix itself. I also don't think Sanders plays (this line wouldn't be what it is if he was playing). I just feel the Cowboys are not close to the No. 15 team in the country.
West Virginia played a cupcake in their opener against Eastern Kentucky, but were dominant in route to a 56-10 win. They had a 624 to 206 edge in total yards and had 42 points by the half. I like their head coach Neal Brown and they had a lot of experience back with 14 returning starters. They might make a bigger jump than expected in year two under Brown. I like them to win this game. Give me the Mountaineers +6.5!
Syracuse has gotten off to a slow start with losses against Pittsburgh and North Carolina, but it gets it first game in the dome which could make a difference even without a packed house. The struggles are not surprising with a young team and after two games with the offense a bit off, there have been chances and opportunities that could start to click in this week. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has been held in check, but this is a good matchup to get him going early to take some shots downfield. The Orange defense can keep up a stellar run stop and rattle Georgia Tech freshman quarterback Jeff Sims into enough opportunities to do it. They are employing a new 3-3-5 defense and that is one that the Yellow Jackets have not faced. Unlike before, the Orange are employing a more flexible defensive system that seems to matchup better against dual threat offenses. Sims has thrown four interceptions in two games, and his mistakes will allow the Orange to stay in the game. The Yellow Jackets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite while the Orange are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play (398) Syracuse Orange
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on New England Patriots -5.5
This is a very tough spot for the Oakland Raiders. They will be working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. They are now in a letdown spot after upsetting the Saints, and they have to travel all the way out East for an early 1:00 EST start time to face the Patriots. It’s a Patriots team that will be hungry after coming up just one yard short against the Seahawks last week. The Raiders are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Patriots are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a loss. The Raiders are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. The Raiders are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. New England is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 games after allowing more than 30 points last game. The Patriots are 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 home games. Give me the Patriots.
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ASA FREE PLAY ON Houston +4 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We really like Pittsburgh this year but it’s going to take awhile for their offense to get in synch after QB Roethlisberger missed an entire year. He’s been decent in the first 2 games but still doesn’t look himself at times. While the Steelers are 2-0, they’ve struggled in those games facing 2 teams that have a combined 0-4 record this season – Giants & Broncos. Last week at home vs an undermanned Denver team, the Steelers barely held on to win despite the fact that Bronco starting QB Lock left early in the game and did not return. Here they get a Houston team that has easily played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far losing to the Chiefs & Ravens, the 2 best teams in the NFL according to most power rankings. The Texans are now in desperation mode as going 0-3 to start the season would almost eliminate them from the playoffs historically speaking. This was a playoff team last year led by one of the top QB’s in the NFL, Deshaun Watson. Teams that start the season 0-2 SU are a money making 33-16 ATS in their 3rd game of the year dating back to 2014. During that same span, teams that start 2-0 SU are 21-26 ATS in their 3rd game and both fall in line with this game. Let’s not forget this is a Houston team that was in the playoffs last year fighting for their lives. Pittsburgh is taking a huge step up in competition here and didn’t look all that dominant in their first 2 games. This is a reverse line movement play which we like as not surprisingly over 60% of the wagers are on Pittsburgh but the line has dropped to -4. Pitt is just 4-10-1 ATS their last 15 games as a favorite and we’ll call for a close game here. The points are worth taking.
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Small play on under 77 in this early (12 noon) start on Saturday in Greenville, NC. The Pirates are playing their opener and may get off to a slow start. There are going to be plenty of points scored but a 45-28 type of game still goes under by a few points.
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474 Cincinnati at Philadelphia
Despite the cover on Thursday night the Bengals did not look impressive. The Browns won the yards per point battle by a whopping 3.0 ypp. The problem was the Browns couldn't get the Bengals off the field. Cincinnati was a perfect 5 for 5 on fourth downs.
Philadelphia has looked bad the first two weeks and now the press is really coming down on Carson Wentz. The Eagles are a much better team than what it has shown, and is getting healthier by the week. Despite the extra days to prepare we simply want no part of the road underdog here.
FREE PLAY on Dodgers -200
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5
The Tampa Bay Bucs are only going to continue to get better as the season goes along. Now with two games under their belts, Tom Brady and company should be hitting on all cylinders in Week 3 against the hapless Denver Broncos.
The Bucs have remained one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. They will get Chris Godwin back from a concussion this week to give Brady his full compliment of receivers. And the Bucs should torch a Broncos defense that is banged up and giving up 393.5 yards per game through two games against the Titans and Steelers.
Speaking of banged up, the Broncos also have a plethora of injuries on offense. Jeff Driskel will get the start this week after Drew Lock was knocked out with a shoulder injury last week. The Broncos made Lock their QB of the future, so this is a bigger loss than is being factored into the line. Not to mention, Driskel won’t have his best receiver in Courtland Sutton, who returned from injury last week only to suffer a torn ACL.
Tampa Bay does have a fast, underrated defense that gets overlooked because of all the weapons they have on offense. They held the Saints to just 271 total yards in Week 1 in a game that was much closer than the 23-34 final score would indicate. And last week they forced four Carolina Panthers turnovers to aid their 31-17 victory.
The Buccaneers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight September games. Denver is 8-23-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game. Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.
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This game here really seems like a big overreaction in the line. Louisville just played a very good Miami team and actually outplayed them racking up over 500 total yards. They actually outgunned Miami but yet lost the game by double digits. The main reason for that was because they lost the turnover battle 3-0. Pitt won a classic ugly game vs Cuse which I did have Cuse and never had to sweat it. They aren't going to be able to control the game on the ground like they would like. I think Louisville wins this game outright as the wrong team is favored.
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The set-up: I won with Denver last time out and I think it'll find a way to deliver in Game 5 as well. The Lakers are now 3-1 in this series, but I expect they'll have their hands full with this Nuggets team that simply doesn't quit. Denver has already come back from two 3-1 series deficits to advance to this point.
The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are just 2-6-1 in their last nine as a favorite vs. the Nuggets, while Denver is 8-1-1 in the playoffs when trailing in a series.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Denver Nuggets.
The first few weeks of the football campaign, it seems as though we have won every big game we have released. Well, this weekend, we only have BIG GAMES. Saturday I have my first GAME OF THE MONTH in my BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH. The biggest big game hunter on the planet will get you rich here. I also have my NCAAF 46-16 LAS VEGAS STRIP MOVE. Sunday it gets even better as I have my 17-4 NFL BOOKIE BUSTER, 1-0 TOUCHDOWN, and my 1-0 GRIDIRON WINNERS. I am so confident that we are going to SWEEP THE BOARD that I am posting both a, NCAAF/NFL 5 GAME DISCOUNTED GUARANTEED PKG and an NFL 3 GAME DISCOUNTED GUARANTEED PKG. Grab a broom guys because this weekend, WE SWEEP THE BOARD.
Saturday's FREE NCAAF WINNER: Miami Florida.
4:30 pm pst.
Miami is off to a 2-0 start, both SU and ATS, with decisive wins over UAB and Louisville. Offensive coordinator, Rhett Lashlee has the offense running smoothly. Houston-transfer, quarterback, D'Eriq King and running back, Cam'ron Harris are an explosive 1-2 punch that has brought excitement back to the squad. Falling from grace the last few seasons, Florida State has a lot on their plate this campaign. Going back to last year, the Seminoles have dropped three in a row SU. They just don't possess the playmakers anymore (14.6 PPG last three). To add to their distractions, head coach, Mike Norvell will not be on the sidelines for this one, as he is out with coronavirus. The Hurricanes have taken the last three meetings in this rivalry SU (2-1 ATS) and are 4-1 ATS the last five in the conference and 14-6 ATS the last 20 in the month of September. The Seminoles are 7-15-3 ATS the last 25 in the conference and 3-8-2 ATS the last 13 in the month of September. Take Miami. Thank you.
1 Dimer on Rockies +150
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.
We've won with the 'over' in each of the Falcons first two games this season while also cashing a ticket fading the Bears in their narrow home win over the Giants last Sunday. Here, I'll stick with what works and back the 'over' again as the Falcons return home to host Chicago. While the Bears offense certainly doesn't look all that imposing on paper, it should have a field day against a listless Falcons defense on Sunday. This is another smash spot for WR Allen Robinson against an Atlanta secondary that simply won't be able to cover him with any consistency. The Falcons have done a nice job of stopping the run in the early going but I don't expect the Bears to bang their heads against the wall trying to run it here. Atlanta will be in desperation mode coming off back-to-back losses to open the season, with the most recent coming in truly demoralizing fashion. As usual, the Falcons offense has been on point in the early going and should find continued success against a good, but not great Bears defense here. Playing on the fast track at the Mercedes-Benz Dome obviously helps their cause. Take the over (8*).
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