Fargo’s 2009 International Bowl Picks

**8** International Bowl 74.6% ATS CRUSHER The Big East against the MAC should be no contest although there were instances of wins this season (Akron over Syracuse, Bowling Green over Pittsburgh) but those were certainly rare. Buffalo pulled off one of the bigger upsets in the MAC as it took out then undefeated Ball St. in the MAC Championship. As far as proximity, the Bulls have the edge here as they are just a couple hours away from Toronto making it a feasible trip for their fans. The Bulls closed the season strong with six wins in its last seven games but three of those came against some ugly competition and decided by six points or fewer. Connecticut had a disappointing season for Huskies standards especially after starting the season 5-0. They limped in with a 2-5 mark but two of those losses came at Rutgers and at South Florida by two and four points respectively. As a matter of fact, all five of those setbacks came against teams in bowl games, three of whom won (West Virginia and North Carolina played each other) while Pittsburgh lost by three points to Oregon St. Basically, the competition was tough but they still managed to stay competitive. Don’t expect the lead to not show up as head coach Randy Edsall is one of the best around and he will not allow his team to come into this game and sleepwalk through it especially after their bowl loss to Wake Forest last season. A quick glance at the numbers show that Buffalo was actually outgained this season by an average of 27.8 ypg and this was against a MAC schedule and an overall schedule that was ranked 82nd. The Bulls were outgained in nine of their 13 games including eight of their last 10. Connecticut played in the tougher conference, played a tough schedule (40th) and still managed to outgain the opposition by a solid 70.5 ypg. The Huskies outgained six of those final seven opponents and outgained foes in four of those losses. It should come as no surprise that the MAC has been overmatched when expected. Conference teams have lost 12 straight games as underdogs, going 2-10 ATS including a 0-2 mark this year (Northern Illinois and Western Michigan). Play on teams that are coming off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, a winning team that has not won more than 60 percent of its games playing another winning team. This situation is 42-18 (70 percent) over the last 10 seasons. We can add in the fact that Buffalo is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against the Big East, Connecticut is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss and 19-6 ATS when coming off a game of scoring fewer than 14 points. Connecticut controls the line of scrimmage and rolls on Saturday. 8* Connecticut Huskies

Don’t miss any more of the college bowl picks that Matt Fargo releases this season!