Fargo’s 2009 Outback Bowl Game Odds

The bowl picks offered by Matt Fargo continue to show clients a profit.  On January 1st the bowl game odds that he liked right away was the 2009 Outback Bowl so let’s take a look at how he broke down the game and thought Iowa was the easy choice.

I think South Carolina being in a New Years Day bowl is a joke. The Gamecocks limped home to end the season, getting blown out at Florida and Clemson. The loss to the Gators is nothing to be embarrassed of or is it? Losing 56-6 to any team causes concern and I want to part of a team like that. On the flip side, Iowa cruised home with three straight victories including an upset against then undefeated Penn St. The Hawkeyes lost four games this season by a total of 12 points so it deserves to be here. One can simply look at the conferences and make a case for South Carolina since it was in the SEC and the Big Ten had a down year. But the SEC was no powerhouse this season. Take away Florida and Alabama, the latter who South Carolina didn’t even face and it was not impressive. Mississippi was a pleasant surprise but Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Auburn did not come close to expectations. The Gamecocks defeated UAB and Wofford by 23 combined points out of the conference. That stinks. The numbers alone backup the Hawkeyes as does this situation that takes part of those into consideration. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have outscored it opponents by 14 or more ppg going up going up against an opponent that is outscoring opponents by fewer than 5 ppg (or getting outscored), after scoring 42 points or more last game. This situation is 32-11 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being a solid +15.6 ppg. The Hawkeyes start the New Year with a romp.